AUGUST 21/BANKERS ARE DESPERATE TO KEEP BOTH GOLD AND SILVER IN CHECK: GOLD DOWN 30 CENTS TO $1505.60//SILVER UP ONE CENT TO $17.17//COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY ON FRIDAY AND A HUGE NUMBER OF IN THE CALLS FOR SILVER..MAYBE A SHORT SQUEEZE COMING//IRAN CONTINUES TO MAKE WAVES TO THE WEST TO NOT BLOCK IRANIAN OIL SALES//FOMC MINUTES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1505.60 DOWN $0.30(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.17 UP 1 CENT  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1502.75

 

silver:  $17.14

option trading silver:

We are now entering options expiry week for the comex which ends , August 27.2019

OTC/ LBMA expires on Friday, the 30th.

 

What is very interesting is the quantity of silver contracts that are in the money as silver has rise quite nicely over these past two months. There is going to be a lot of silver being exercised and we may see a silver squeeze

(read James Turk/Kingworldnews/yesterday)

I AM PUBLISHING EARLY

ANY LATE EDITIONS I WILL ADJUST LATER TONIGHT

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 28/114

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,504.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/20/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/22/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 54
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 28
686 C INTL FCSTONE 64 11
737 C ADVANTAGE 48 18
800 C MAREX SPEC 2 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 114 114
MONTH TO DATE: 6,285

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 114 NOTICE(S) FOR 11400 OZ (0.3545 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  6285 NOTICES FOR 628,500 OZ  (19.548 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 15,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1996 for   9,980,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10179 DOWN $585 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10090 DOWN 690

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY AN OUT OF THIS WORLD  SIZED 7641 CONTRACTS FROM 230,445 UP TO 238,086 WITH THE 20 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR AUGUST, 547 FOR SEPT, DEC: 402 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  949 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 949 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 949 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.745 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 20 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

9.990   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH OBVIOUS ZERO SUCCESS..BUT WE DID HAVE HUGE  SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

27,189 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 27,189 CONTRACTS) OR 135.94 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1812 CONTRACTS OR 9.060 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  135.94 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 19.42% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1448.46   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 7641, WITH THE 20 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 949 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED: 8687 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 949 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 7641  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 20 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.16 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! WE ALSO HAVE A HUGE INCREASE IN SPREADING ACCUMULATION.  THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF THEIR OPERATION WILL PROBABLY COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AUGUST 23.

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.193 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 170% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 9.990 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1197 CONTRACTS, TO 594,807 ACCOMPANYING THE $2.90 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /

THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION OPERATION IS NOW IN FULL SWING  ONLY FOR SILVER AS QUITE A BIT WAS ACCOMPLISHED IN THAT ENDEAVOUR TODAY. LIQUIDATION OF SPREADING CONTRACTS WILL COMMENCE AROUND THE 23RD OF AUGUST….. THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD  STOPS FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH /

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7602 CONTRACTS:

AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  5,179 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 595,740,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6376 CONTRACTS: 1197 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5179 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 6376 CONTRACTS OR 637,600 OZ OR 19.83 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF $2.90 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT SMALL GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 19.83  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING CONSIDERABLE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN THE  PRICE RISE. 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 150,968 CONTRACTS OR 15,096,800 oz OR 469.57 TONNES (15 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,0644 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS:  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 469.57 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 469.57/3550 x 100% TONNES =13.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3980.25  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1197 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($2.90)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5179 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5179 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 630976ONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5179 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1197 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 19.83 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.90 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. 

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had: 114 notice(s) filed upon for 11400 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

 

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $0.30 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY AN OUT OF THIS WORLD SIZED 7641 CONTRACTS from 230,445 UP TO 238,086 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 547; DEC: 402  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 949 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 8223  CONTRACTS TO THE 949 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 8,647 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 43.44 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 9.990 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 20 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 949 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.33 POINTS OR 0.01%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 38.50 POINTS OR 0.15%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 58.65 POINTS OR 0.28%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .83%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0644 /Oil UP TO 56.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0644 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0674 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)This is a powder keg: China confirms the detention of a UK consulate worker

(zerohedge)

ii)Real estate prices are huge making living conditions for millennials almost impossible.  This is why many are contemplating moving to Taiwan

(zerohedge)

iii)China is making arrangements on the scenario of a no trade deal

(zerohedge)

iv)Kyle Bass on  China and Hong Kong

(Kyle Bass)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Boris Johnson correctly states that the Irish backstop is not his problem but an EU problem.  He  is ready to leave with no deal and no Irish backstop

(zerohedge)

ii)France/UK
France is demanding an exit fee, something that boris Johnson clearly does not want to pay and there is no obligation to pay it.  As I have stated to you on several occasions, Britain should leave and negotiate with the USA and other nations a free trade deal and leave the EU dry
(zerohedge)
iii)Italy
Dembik outlines what comes next in the crisis facing the Italian Government
(courtesy Dembik/Saxobank)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i) Iran

We now have another Iranian oil tanker heading for Syria.  It will transfer its load onto Syrian cargo ships. No doubt that they will be watched and will probably be taken hostage like the Grace one

(zerohedge)

ii)Yemen/Iran/USA/Houthis

This is not good:  Iran is supplying better and longer range missiles.  Last night a USA drone was shot down by a surface to air missile.  This should frighten Saudi Arabia to no end.

(zerohedge)

iii)IRAN/USA

Iran’s finances are deteriorating rapidly as they are about to enter hyperinflation as they cannot sell their oil. OIl is the only big ticket item. A nation that is bust can do many unpredictable things…we  must pay attention to this very closely
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

I have commented on this Bellwether to you on several occasions..the status of the global RV industry.  A contraction in this industry fortels that a recession is imminent

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Venezuela

Allies are getting read to invade Venezuela.  Let us see what China and Russia go as these nations have interests i Venezuela

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Due to the huge demand for gold from ETF’s and the criminal banks, Swiss gold exports to London are at a  6 year high

(Bloomberg/gata)

ii)As outlined yesterday another JPMorgan trader confesses to metals manipulation and more importantly implicates his superiors

(London’s Financial times/GATA)

iii)Craig Hemke sees what we see: a huge improvement in the trading of silver..watch for for options expiry this Friday

(Craig Hemke/GATA)

iv)Pam and Russ Martens comment on how the regulators totally dismembered the Volcker rule

(Pam and Russ Marten/Wall Street on Parade)

v)Bill Murphy explains why the smashdowns are not working anymore

(GATA)

vi)Russia adds 9.33 tonnes last month to its official reserves and Lawrie Williams questions if Russia is slowing its purchases. Absolutely not:  Russia produces around 300 tonnes per year or 25 tonnes per month.  Russia is doing what China is doing: only adding a percentage of its total take and keeping the rest  until needed(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Existing home sales finally break their 16 month losing streak by rising a bit

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)If declassified these 10 documents would destroy the narrative perpetrated by the Democrats

(zerohedge/John Solomon)

ii)The modus operandi of Epstein in his sex trafficking ring

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1197 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 594,807 ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN OF $2.90 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5179 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 5179   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5179 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 6376 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5179 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 1197 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  6376 CONTRACTS OR 637,600 OZ OR 19.83 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 894 CONTRACTS as we SURPRISINGLY GAINED 133 contracts.  We had 118 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A WHOPPER  OF 251 contracts or 25,100 oz of gold that will stand for delivery ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.  OUR BANKER FRIENDS QUEUE JUMPED AHEAD OF ORDINARY INVESTORS STANDING FOR METAL AS THEY DESPERATELY SEARCH FOR BADLY NEEDED METAL.

 

 

The next non active month is September and here the OI ROSE by 51 contracts UP TO 3646.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 434 contracts UP to 47,022.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 114 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  11400 OZ. (0.3545 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 7641 CONTRACTS FROM 230,445 UP TO 238,086 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 20 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY. THE NOMINAL INCREASE IN OI WAS AUGMENTED TODAY WITH THE HUGE ACCUMULATION IN SPREADING CONTRACTS.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 5 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 3 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A FULL 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 2573 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 96,039 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 45 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 251.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 9302 CONTRACTS UP TO 105,841.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 216,364  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  259,222  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 21/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
114 notice(s)
 11400 OZ
(0.2545 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
780 contracts
(78,000 oz)
2.426 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6285 notices
628,500 OZ
19.584 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else::nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 114 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 28 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6285) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (894 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (114 x 100 oz per contract) equals 706,500 OZ OR 21.734 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (6285 x 100 oz)  + (894)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (114 x 100 oz )which equals 706,500 oz standing OR 21.734 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We GAINED A WHOPPING 251  contracts or an additional 25,100 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. OUR BANKING FRIENDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO FIND SCARCE SUPPLIES OF GOLD METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE

.

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 20.63 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 21.734  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// JUDGING BY THE GOOD  SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY WAS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX. I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE COMEX INVENTORY AT THE REGISTERED LEVEL IS OF THE KILOBAR VARIETY WHICH I BELIEVE IS A PHONY.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  663,384.152 oz or  20.63 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,030,289.341 oz 249.77 tonnes

IN THE LAST 34 MONTHS 109 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 21 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 32,459.918 oz
CNT
Delaware
Int.Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
599,335.090 oz
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
 10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1996 contracts

9,965,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into HSBC: 599,335.090 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  599,335.090  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  19,831.288 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  2895.925 oz

iii) out of Int. Delaware: 9732.705 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 32,459.918  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

total dealer silver:  92.830 million

total dealer + customer silver:  312.505 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 3 contract(s) FOR 15,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1996 x 5,000 oz = 9,980,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (5) and the number of notices served upon today (3) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1996 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (5)- number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 9,990,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL STAND AS THEY AGAIN REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  44,882 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 101,001 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 102,002 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 505 million  OZ 72.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.50% ((AUGUST 16/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.04% to NAV (AUGUST 16/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -/50%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.79 TRADING 14.28/DISCOUNT 3.45

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

 

 

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AUGUST 21/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 845.17 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 648 TRADING DAYS: 90.23 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 548- TRADING DAYS: A NET 76.44 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLIONOZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 21`/2019:

 

Inventory 380.154 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.04/ and libor 6 month duration 2.02

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.89%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.06

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Due to the huge demand for gold from ETF’s and the criminal banks, Swiss gold exports to London are at a  6 year high

(Bloomberg/gata)

Swiss gold exports to U.K. hit 6-year high on surge into ETFs

 Section: 

By Rupert Rowling
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Swiss gold exports to the United Kingdom rose to the highest in six years, driven by a surge in demand for exchange-traded funds.

Switzerland shipped 90.7 tons of bullion to the U.K. in July, the most since September 2012, according to data on the website of Swiss Federal Customs Administration. That compares with just 7.4 tons in June.

… 

Gold is heading to London because the city is a global center for precious metal storage and boasts a vast network of vaults within the M25 motorway that surrounds the metropolitan area. Rising gold prices are driving demand for investment products and the bullion that underlies those funds. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-20/swiss-gold-exports-to…

END

As outlined yesterday another JPMorgan trader confesses to metals manipulation and more importantly implicates his superiors

(London’s Financial times/GATA)

Another JPMorgan trader confesses to metals market manipulation, implicates superiors

 Section: 

Former JPMorgan Metals Trader Pleads Guilty to Spoofing Charges

By Kadhim Shubber
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, August 20, 2019

https://www.ft.com/content/1ff58008-c377-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9

A second former JPMorgan Chase precious metals trader has pleaded guilty to criminal charges of spoofing, the U.S. Department of Justice said today.

Christian Trunz, who worked at the bank’s London, Singapore, and New York offices, admitted placing thousands of orders for gold, silver, and other metals futures contracts that he did not intend to execute, according to the Justice Department.

… 

The plea by Mr. Trunz, who prosecutors said resigned today as an executive director at JPMorgan, followed the guilty plea by John Edmonds, another former trader at the bank, last November.

“Trunz learned to spoof from more senior traders, and spoofed with the knowledge and consent of his supervisors,” said the Justice Department, which said he was co-operating with its ongoing investigation.

The case is the latest in a series of prosecutions brought by U.S. authorities as they have cracked down on spoofing, which involves placing and rapidly canceling orders in order to dupe the market.

Prosecutors said the conduct occurred between July 2007 and August 2016. The Justice Department did not identify JPMorgan, but the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority lists Mr. Trunz, 34, as an employee of the bank since 2007.

The bank said in a February regulatory filing that it was co-operating with the Justice Department’s investigation.

A JPMorgan spokeswoman declined to comment. An attorney for Mr. Trunz could not be immediately identified.

* * *

END

Craig Hemke sees what we see: a huge improvement in the trading of silver..watch for for options expiry this Friday

(Craig Hemke/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Outlook for Comex silver improves

 Section: 

5:29p ET Tuesday, August 29, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver is showing signs that it may start to catch up with gold’s rally soon, Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report writes today at Sprott Money. The trader positioning on the New York Commodities Exchange has moved in silver’s favor, Hemke writes, and more negative interest rates and “quantitative easing” are likely to help.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “The Outlook for Comex Silver Improves” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-outlook-for-comex-silver-improves-c…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Pam and Russ Martens comment on how the regulators totally dismembered the Volcker rule

(Pam and Russ Marten/Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Investment bank crony regulators dismember the Volcker Rule

 Section: 

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Have Flagrantly Flouted the Volcker Rule for Nine Years: Now It’s to Be Gutted by Federal Regulators

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Two of Wall Street’s crony regulators announced today that they are going to “simplify” the Volcker Rule’s ban on proprietary trading at Wall Street banks, providing another big win for Wall Street and another big nightmare for Main Street.

The financial crash on Wall Street in 2008 was the deepest economic upheaval in the U.S. since the Great Depression. Millions of honest, hardworking Americans lost their jobs, and then their homes, as a result of the economic collapse. Many of these Americans have yet to fully recover financially after more than a decade has passed. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/08/goldman-sachs-and-jpmorgan-have-fl…

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Have Flagrantly Flaunted the Volcker Rule for Nine Years: Now It’s to Be Gutted by Federal Regulators

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: August 20, 2019 ~

Wall Street's Magic Hat Trick - The Volcker RuleTwo of Wall Street’s crony regulators announced today that they are going to “simplify” the Volcker Rule’s ban on proprietary trading at Wall Street banks, providing another big win for Wall Street and another big nightmare for Main Street.

The financial crash on Wall Street in 2008 was the deepest economic upheaval in the U.S. since the Great Depression. Millions of honest, hardworking Americans lost their jobs, and then their homes, as a result of the economic collapse. Many of these Americans have yet to fully recover financially after more than a decade has passed.

The promise of the Obama administration was that its Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that was signed into law in 2010 would put an end to the reckless gambling casino on Wall Street that had brought on the collapse.

One of the key reforms of the Act was Section 619, commonly known as the Volcker Rule after former Federal Reserve Chairman, Paul Volcker, who headed President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Volcker correctly believed that the proprietary trading (making bets for the house) of the Wall Street banks dramatically deepened the financial crisis and forced the U.S. taxpayer and the Federal Reserve to bail them out with astronomical sums of money.

The Volcker Rule was meant to serve as a substitute for full restoration of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which made it illegal for banks holding Federally-insured deposits to also speculate in stocks or own stock trading firms. The Glass-Steagall Act kept the U.S. financial system safe for 66 years until its repeal in 1999 under the Wall Street-friendly Clinton administration. It took just nine years after the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act for Wall Street to blow itself up in a replay of 1929. Going into the crisis of 2008, the biggest speculating investment banks on Wall Street had merged with the largest Federally-insured commercial banks in the U.S. – a clear recipe for disaster which remains as dangerous today as it was in 2008.

Volcker’s assessment of how dangerous the commercial bank/investment bank model had become was borne out by the findings of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission’s official report and dozens of other research findings. Just last year the nonprofit, Americans for Financial Reform, assessed the situation like this:

“…two of largest U.S. depository banks at the time of the crisis – Bank of America and Citibank – lost about half of their tangible equity capital to trading losses in 2008…Citibank and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch were perhaps the most systemically critical U.S. institutions suffering immense financial crisis losses tied to trading activities, but they were hardly alone. Foreign banking organizations vital to Wall Street stability, such as Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Credit Suisse, also suffered enormous trading losses. And some investment banks such as Goldman Sachs that avoided extreme trading losses managed to do so by imposing those losses on others, using deceptive practices to sell impaired assets to clients. The incentive to take advantage of clients in this way was driven by the conflict of interest created by bank proprietary trading, since banks sought to avoid proprietary losses in their trading inventories by deceiving investors into purchasing bad assets.”

Section 619 of Dodd-Frank, the Volcker Rule, could not have been clearer in its intent. It read at the time of signing:

“The Bank Holding Company Act of 1956 (12 U.S.C. 1841 et seq.) is amended by adding at the end the following: Unless otherwise provided in this section, a banking entity shall not—(A) engage in proprietary trading; or (B) acquire or retain any equity, partnership, or other ownership interest in or sponsor a hedge fund or a private equity fund.”

But the big Wall Street banks had no intention of ever letting the Volcker Rule be implemented. Dodd-Frank was signed into law on July 21, 2010 but Federal regulators did not provide their interpretation on how the rule should be implemented until December 2013, indicating at that time that Wall Street had until July 21, 2015 to fully implement the rule. Then the Federal Reserve granted banks an extension until July 21, 2017 to bring their hedge funds and private equity funds into compliance.

According to a report last year by Business Insider, JPMorgan Chase, the largest Federally-insured commercial bank in the United States “ranked number 4 among all hedge fund managers with $47.7 billion in hedge fund assets under management.” JPMorganitself admits to managing $39 billion in hedge fund assets.

We know that some of these hedge fund assets are in internal JPMorgan Chase hedge funds because in December of 2015, the Securities and Exchange Commission fined the bank $267 million for failure to disclose conflicts of interests in placing client monies in their own mutual funds and their own “proprietary hedge funds.” Also, in June of this year, Reuters reported that JPMorgan was converting its $2 billion Highbridge multi-strategy hedge fund into a credit-focused fund.

Goldman Sachs has been equally cavalier about flaunting the Volcker Rule. Institutional Investor reported in December of last year that Goldman’s asset management unit was “buying Aptitude Investment Management, a fund-of-hedge funds manager on North America’s west coast.”

Additionally, CNBC reported in February that Goldman has created a “secret portfolio” called a “hedge fund ‘very important position’ basket” that “contains the 50 stocks that appear most often on the top 10 holdings of fundamentally-driven hedge funds, according to the firm.” If it’s an internal offering that’s tracking hedge funds, it certainly sounds like an internal hedge fund offering from Goldman Sachs.

This is how Wall Street has been operating for far too long. It does what it wants in contravention of the law, then demands that Congress or its regulators change the law. That’s precisely how the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed. Wall Street honcho Sandy Weill announced the merger of his insurance/brokerage firm, Travelers Group, with Citicorp, which owned the commercial bank, Citibank, in 1998. The merger was illegal under the six-decade old Glass-Steagall Act. But the Clinton administration, after much ill-advised praise for the merger from the Editorial Board of the New York Times, repealed the Glass-Steagall Act the following year to accommodate the illegal merger.

Every American needs to become engaged on this issue. The alternative is another epic crash on Wall Street that tanks the U.S. economy and leaves millions of Americans with job losses — once again.

END
Bill Murphy explains why the smashdowns are not working anymore
(GATA)

Gold smashdowns aren’t working anymore, GATA chairman tells GoldSeek Radio

 Section: 

8:43p ET Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, interviewed by GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek, says the usual smashdowns against gold aren’t working anymore and he believes it’s because the “gold cartel” is at last running out of the real metal it has used to control the price.

Murphy adds that while gold demand has picked up around the world, there is still little interest in the metal in the United States.

… 

Silver soon will start catching up to gold, Murphy predicts.

The interview is 13 minutes long and can be heard at GoldSeek Radio here:

http://news.goldseek.com/radio/1566267681.php

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Migunov describes the situation for Russia as they need more time to exit the dollar

Migunov/GATA)

Dmitry Migunov: Russia needs time to exit the dollar, as a quick withdrawal won’t work

 Section: 

From the Middle East Media Research Institute, Washington
Tuesday, August 20, 2019

After sustaining a series of very tough sanctions imposed by the United States in 2017-2019, Russia has redoubled its efforts to modify the dollar-dominated international trade system. Russian expert Dmitry Migunov explained that Russia’s de-dollarization plan consists of two parts.

The first is to lower the dollar’s share in Russia’s international reserves, and the second is the transfer of the country’s international trade from the dollar to other currencies, including the ruble. Although Russia has somewhat reduced its international transactions in dollars, there are several reasons why a rapid de-dollarization is not going to succeed and, in any case, it’s not the ruble but primarily the euro that is substituting for the dollar.

… 

Alternative currencies, such as the Russian ruble, the Chinese renminbi, the Turkish lira, and the South African rand, are subject to severe rate fluctuations that create extremely high risks of loss. Also, the transition to accounts in currency alternatives to the dollar inescapably incurs a rise in transaction costs.

Furthermore, the dollar is popular not only thanks to the economic might of the United States but mainly thanks to the worldwide existence of a system of dollar accounts. One doesn’t have to invest any efforts to obtain and use it in accounts. “Therefore, to speak of the full ejection of the dollar as the basic currency of trade in Russia, or in any other country, is still premature,” Migunov concluded.

Below is his article. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.memri.org/reports/russian-expert-migunov-russia-needs-time-e…

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Russia adds 9.33 tonnes last month to its official reserves and Lawrie Williams questions if Russia is slowing its purchases. Absolutely not:  Russia produces around 300 tonnes per year or 25 tonnes per month.  Russia is doing what China is doing: only adding a percentage of its total take and keeping the rest  until needed

(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Is Russian Central Bank reducing its gold purchases?

Despite U.S. imposed trade sanctions on Russia, largely followed somewhat reluctantly by the U.S.’s European Union allies, the Russian economy, in terms of growth in Foreign Exchange reserves, is growing – even as the Putin-controlled megapower seems to be reducing its dollar-related assets to the bare minimum. Latest reports suggest that Russia is moving into having the world’s fourth largest forex reserves by overtaking Saudi Arabia which had previously been holding that position. The top three are China, Japan and Switzerland. While Russia is currently in fifth place with forex reserves of around $520 billion, Saudi Arabia is only slightly ahead and will likely be surpassed this year, according to analysis by Fitch ratings. Russian forex reserves are seen as rising to over $600 billion by 2021 as it builds them up in response to the possible imposition of additional sanctions by the Trump-led Administration in the U.S.

One of the keys to Russian forex growth has been its programme of gold purchases over the past few years. Russia has been seen as the world’s largest accumulator of gold reserves over the past several years adding 200 tonnes of gold or more to its reserves annually for the past several years. Its Central Bank has just announced the addition of a further 300,000 ounces (9.33 tonnes) in July bringing its total to 2,218 tonnes – the world’s fifth largest national gold holding – only marginally behind those of the current third and fourth largest holders, Italy and France, which respectively hold 2,451.8 and 2,436.1 tonnes according to official figures reported to the IMF. At the most recent accumulation rate Russian holdings could surpass both of these in the next year or two.

However there are indications that the Russian gold purchase levels could be slowing down. In the first seven months of the current year, Russia has only added 105.8 tonnes – still within reach of another 200 tonne year, but slipping back slightly. Extrapolating over the full year that suggests a total of around 180 tonnes this year – a little lower than that of the annual totals for the past three years. Even so, with the recent gold price rise, the value accumulation in the reserves is on the increase.

There is little doubt that the Russian gold accumulations have provided an important element in the boosting of its forex reserves and the huge reduction in the country’s dollar related assets. Russia is the world’s second largest oil producer and, provided oil prices remain at or near current levels the country’s economy will likely continue to grow regardless of any U.S. imposed sanctions. Tensions in the Persian Gulf and with the Iran stand-off will likely keep oil prices reasonably elevated and Russia’s ever improving economic links with China will keep its payments balance positive. Thus U.S. imposed sanctions seem to be having little effect on Russia’s domestic economy. Sanctions will undoubtedly remain in place as Russia is hugely unlikely to comply with U.S. demands that it hands the predominantly ethnic Russian populated Crimea back to Ukraine.

Russia Is also the world’s third largest gold producer (after China and Australia) and has designs on becoming the World’s No.1 as Chinese production continues to slip and the gap with Australia is exceedingly small. Thus reserves can continue to be built from domestic production alone, although moves appear to be afoot for Russian gold miners to boost exports too. The rate of accumulation by the bank of Russia may be diminishing, but only at the margin, as the nation continues to see gold as a key element in maintaining its strong global economic position.

21 Aug 2019

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *END

Another J.PMorgan traders pleads guilty to gold manipulation and he faces up to 11 years in jail.  However in all probability he will face a fine and agree not to engage in manipulation again

(zerohedge)

 

JPMorgan Spoofer Pleads Guilty To Gold Manipulation, Faces 11 Years In Jail

There was a time when the merest mention of gold manipulation in “reputable” media was enough to have one branded a perpetual conspiracy theorist with a tinfoil farm out back. That was roughly coincident with a time when Libor, FX, mortgage, and bond market manipulation was also considered unthinkable, when High Frequency Traders were believed to “provide liquidity”, when the stock market was said to not be manipulated by the Fed, and when the ever-confused media, always eager to take “complicated” financial concepts at the face value set by a self-serving establishment, never dared to question anything.

All that changed last November when a former JPMorgan precious-metals trader admitted he engaged in a six-year spoofing scheme that defrauded investors in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts. John Edmonds, then 36, pled guilty under seal in the District of Connecticut to commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, commodities price manipulation, and spoofing. As FBI Assistant Director in Charge Sweeney explained that “with his guilty plea, Edmonds admitted he intended to introduce materially false and misleading information into the commodities markets.”

“The Criminal Division is committed to prosecuting those who undermine the investing public’s trust in the integrity of our commodities markets through spoofing or any other illegal conduct.”

“By conspiring with his trading partners to place spoof orders, he blatantly attempted to profit off of an unfair market that he helped create.  The FBI will continue to work with our partners to insure financial markets remain a level playing field for all investors.”

Then, one month ago, Corey Flaum, who worked as a trader at Bear Stearns and Bank of Nova Scotia, also admitted to precious metals manipulation, saying he placed thousands of bogus orders for futures contracts over a nine-year period.

Now it’s #3.

Christiaan Trunz, another former JPMorgan metals trader, pleaded guilty on Tuesday to conspiracy and to manipulating prices in the precious-metals market as part of the U.S. government’s continuing crackdown on bogus spoofing trades.

Trunz, 34, admitted during a hearing in federal court in Brooklyn, New York, that he also used spoofing to manipulate precious metal prices and to extract a profit while he worked at Bear Stearns and at JPMorgan between 2007 to 2016. He pleaded guilty to in connection with a specific spoofing incident in June 2016.

While Trunz could face a maximum prison term of as long as 135 months when U.S. District Judge Pamela Chen sentences him in February, he will likely get away with a fine and a warning never to rig the precious metals market again.

As we discussed last November, this is how Edmonds and his fellow precious metals traders at the Bank – one of whom would turn out to be Trunz – spoofed the market :

This trading strategy was admittedly intended to inject materially false and misleading liquidity and price information into the precious metals futures contracts markets by placing the Spoof Orders in order to deceive other market participants about the existence of supply and demand.

The Spoof Orders were designed to artificially move the price of precious metals futures contracts in a direction that was favorable to Edmonds and his co-conspirators at the Bank, to the detriment of other market participants. 

In pleading guilty, Edmonds admitted that he learned this deceptive trading strategy from more senior traders at the Bank, and he personally deployed this strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Justice describes one such ‘spoof’ that occurred on October 12, 2012

“Edmonds knowingly executed the scheme and artifice by transmitting and causing to be transmitted to a CME Group server an offer to sell approximately 402 silver futures contracts (“Spoof Order”), with the intent, at the time the offer was entered, to cancel the offer before it could be executed, which fraudulently represented the state of the market, so that Edmonds could purchase approximately 6 silver futures contracts at a below-market price.

Edmond’s ‘Spoof Order’ caused other market participants to react and trade at prices, quantities, and times at which they otherwise would not have traded, but for EDMONDS’s Spoof Order.”

 

It’s not like ‘manipulation’ ever stopped however – one glance at the ‘odd’ price action almost every day around the time of the London Fixmakes it clear, it is anything but a ‘normal’ market:

We’ll give  U.S. Attorney Durham the last word (bearing the chart above in mind):

“The investigation of deceptive trading practices by others involved in this scheme is ongoing.”

The DoJ ends its statement with the following: “Individuals who believe that they may be a victim in these cases should visit the Fraud Section’s Victim Witness website for more information. “

END

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0644/ PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0674   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 0.33 POINTS OR 0.01%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 38.50 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 58.65 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 98.16/Euro FALLS TO 1.1106

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.124/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106/46/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.80 and Brent: 61.06

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.67%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.35% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.11%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.01: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.00

3k Gold at $1499.05. silver at: 17.05   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 57/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.93

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.46 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9791 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0875 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.67%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.58% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.05%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7071..

Futures Rebound Amid New Burst Of Trader Optimism Ahead Of FOMC Minutes

Yesterday’s market selloff is a distant memory this morning, with US equity futures sharply higher tracking European stocks which rose as much as 1%, and ignoring earlier weakness in Asian markets as hopes for more monetary and fiscal stimulus helped ease fears about global recession, political turmoil in Italy and endless trade wars.  Treasury yields ticked higher after retreating Tuesday, while the sharp move higher in German 30Y bonds resulted in the failure of a much anticipated 30Y bond auction with a negative yield, a historic first.

 

Still, with key Fed announcements looming, in the form of today’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s Jackson Hole meeting, volumes subdued. The Euro STOXX 600 was 0.8% higher, rising earlier as much as 1.1%, while the FTSE MIB rises as much as 1.8% following a rout on Tuesday after the resignation of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. The Stoxx autos sector index lead gains, up 2.2%, with Renault surging 4.2% and Fiat Chrysler up 4% after Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore cited people familiar with the matter as saying the carmakers remain in contact on potential tie-up after publicly abandoning efforts. That put the STOXX 600 Autos Index on track for its best day in a month.

GEA Group, a German food-processing-machinery company, and outsourcing group Capita gained more than 5% after Goldman Sachs upgraded its rating on the stocks.

 

Asian stocks were fractionally lower, with Japanese and Australian stocks down, while shares rose in Hong Kong and Seoul and were little changed in Shanghai. Chinese shares were effectively unchanged even though the yuan rose for the first time a week after a “friendly fix” by the central bank which set the daily reference rate slightly stronger than expected, and higher than yesterday. After a “market-friendly fixing,” the bias has been to sell dollars Wednesday morning, Stephen Innes, managing director for VM Markets Ltd. in Singapore, wrote in a note. “With small volumes going through, it’s beginning to feel more like your typical August as the markets don’t seem to have much of an axe to grind one way or the other.” Innes added that there’s some pre-risk event position-squaring ahead of PMI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole later this week. “We could be back in the frying pan quickly if the yield curve inverts or Jay Powell reiterates his mid-cycle view of things,” he wrote.

The yield on 10-year government bonds edged higher for a second day, hitting its highest in two weeks. Treasuries underperformed bunds and gilts, while German bonds pared declines after the country sells new 30-year debt at negative yields for the first time. Italian bonds rise amid optimism that fresh elections will be averted. Bunds trimed declines as 30-year sale sees underbidding of 6c and tail of 3c; these are similar to the July sale of benchmark long bond that met underbidding of 5c and tail of 1c; this is even as oversubscription falls on Wednesday to 1.05x from 1.07x prior and is technically undersubscribed at 0.43x versus 0.86x previously after accounting for retentions.

Italian bond yields steadied after falling on Tuesday, as Italian President Sergio Mattarella begins two days of talks that will lead either to formation of the country’s 67th government since World War Two or to early elections.

Investors will be watching policy makers and world leaders as they convene at the latest G7 meeting to consider the weakest global growth since the financial crisis. The Group of Seven leaders, with Trump among them, will gather in France from the weekend as the ECB prepares to cut interest rate.

And while the Fed minutes due Wednesday may provide some clarity on officials’ views, they’re likely to be overshadowed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s address at Jackson Hole in Wyoming on Friday in the wake of Trump’s latest attack on the central bank according to Bloomberg. Much depends on what the Fed does with U.S. interest rates, making markets hyper-sensitive to the minutes – due later on Wednesday – of its last meeting.

“People are looking ahead to Jackson Hole later this week and the message that Jerome Powell may or may not give us on the direction of monetary policy. That is the highlight of the week and we are waiting with baited breath,” said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

The sentiment was confirmed by Tuuli McCully, head of Asia-Pac at Scotiabank, who told Bloomberg that “the key thing this week is the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Powell. It will be interesting to hear if he sticks to the mid-cycle adjustment tone or if he will promise more.”

Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut in rates next month and cuts of more than 100 basis points by the end of next year. Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner advised clients to watch for the use of the word “somewhat” when Powell describes future policy. “Acknowledgment that downside risks have increased with no characterization of ‘somewhat’ could be taken as confirmation that it is likely the Fed makes a larger cut in September,”Zentner wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing down in his tussle with China, declaring on Tuesday a confrontation was necessary even if it hurt the U.S. economy in the short term.

Currency markets were mostly subdued as the euro struggled and was last down 0.1% at $1.1092. The dollar index initially rose 0.1% to 98.265, but has since given up gains. Sterling failed to overcome technical resistance and met leveraged selling while the yen came under pressure from Japanese names; it was down 0.3% at $1.2134 and 0.2% against the euro at 91.405 pence.

In commodities markets, U.S. crude rose 17 cents to$56.30 per barrel. Brent added 23 cents to $60.26. Spot gold was weaker at $1,498.15 an ounce.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 2,918.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 374.23
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 152.50
  • MXAPJ down 0.07% to 495.15
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 20,618.57
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,497.51
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 26,270.04
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.01% to 2,880.33
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 37,133.03
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 6,483.27
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 1,964.65
  • German 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to -0.659%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1104
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 6.4 bps to 1.024%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.3 bps to 0.129%
  • Brent futures up 1.2% to $60.76/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,500.18
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.22

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • EU poured cold water on Boris Johnson’s attempt to renegotiate the Brexit deal, saying the so-called backstop to prevent a hard Irish border was a vital part of the divorce agreement
  • Trump said he would be putting off a planned meeting with Denmark’s prime minister because she didn’t want to talk about a possible U.S. property deal to buy the island of Greenland. In Denmark, members of parliament responded with bewilderment and disbelief
  • Central bankers and Group of Seven leaders will convene this week 8,000 kilometers apart with the same thing on their mind: What more stimulus do they need to support the weakest global growth since the financial crisis?
  • China detained an employee of the U.K. consulate in Hong Kong under local law, the Foreign Ministry said, confirming earlier reports he was being held. The issue was an internal Chinese matter and not a diplomatic dispute, the ministry said, adding that detainee Simon Cheng is a Hong Kong citizen
  • Germany saw weak demand for the world’s first 30-year bond offering a zero coupon, after a global debt rally that has pushed yields across Europe into negative territory
  • British exporters are to be enrolled in a key customs system so they can trade with the EU after the scheduled Brexit deadline on Oct. 31. The U.K. tax authority will automatically issue more than 88,000 companies with an Economic Operator Registration and Identification number over the next two weeks, the Treasury said in a statement on Wednesday
  • Norway’s $1 trillion wealth fund, Norges Bank Investment Management, rose $28.5 billion in the second quarter ahead of market turmoil that drove equities lower over the past month and saw bond yields plunge further below zero
  • Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid may wait to name a successor to BOE Governor Mark Carney until after Britain’s planned Oct. 31 departure from the EU, according to a person familiar with the process
  • U.K. now plans to only participate in EU meetings where it has “significant national interests involved,” according to a letter signed by PM Boris Johnson’s EU Adviser David Frost
  • U.S. economy doesn’t appear to be headed toward a recession, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said. “When I look at the data coming in, I see solid domestic momentum,” Daly she wrote in a post on Quora.com
  • Just over a year after agreeing to front Italy’s oddball coalition as its prime minister, Giuseppe Conte handed his resignation in to President Sergio Mattarella Tuesday night, leaving his brief political career up in the air
  • U.S. President Donald Trump said he can cut taxes by indexing capital gains to inflation without congressional approval, a move the White House has been considering for months
  • Wall Street watchdogs handpicked by President Trump eased the Volcker Rule’s controversial ban on banks making speculative investment

Asian equity markets traded subdued as the region conformed to the dampened global risk tone with markets cautious ahead of the looming FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium. ASX 200 (-1.0%) underperformed with broad pressure across its sectors. Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was also lower but with downside stemmed as exporters found some solace from a gradually weakening currency, while Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (Unch.) traded indecisively after the PBoC’s quasi liquidity efforts resulted to another net daily drain and amid ongoing trade uncertainty as US President reiterated he is currently not ready to make a trade deal with China but suggested something will happen maybe sooner later. In addition, reports noted that outflows from funds focused on China investments recently widened to its highest since early 2017. Finally, 10yr JGBs returned flat as the initial upside from the cautious risk tone later faded after hitting resistance at the 155.00 level and near its record highs, while the BoJ were only in the market today for Treasury Discount Bills.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Protests Enter Crucial Period Before China Anniversary
  • Cigarette Maker ITC Is Said to Mull Bid for India’s Coffee Day
  • Yemen Vows to Confront U.A.E.-Backed ’Coup’ as Infighting Rages
  • China Traders Bet Big on a Lagging Bank Stock in Hong Kong

European equities are higher across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +1.2%] despite a subdued Asia-Pac handover with some citing a possible market squeeze. Market participants note that stocks are driven by a couple factors: 1) Today’s session commenced at a low base as stocks yesterday were pressured by Italian concerns. 2) low volumes heading into key risk events including FOMC/ECB Minutes (full previews available in the Research Suite) and the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, US volumes have also been low. Sectors are all in the green, with underperformance seen in defensive stocks as investors seek riskier equities. Consumer discretionary is the marked outperformer with gains led by Pandora (+13.6%) as its earning-led optimism continues, whilst Fiat Chrysler (+3.5%) and Renault (+4.9%) shares rebounded amid reports on continuing merger talks. In terms of other individual movers, GEA group (+5.1%) rests closer to the top of the Stoxx 600. On the flip side, Alcon (-2.5%) shares fell following earnings after-hours yesterday.

Top European News

  • U.K. Steps Up Brexit Preparedness for Firms as Deadline Looms; U.K. Budget Deficit Soars as Britain Prepares for Brexit
  • Norway’s Wealth Fund Delivers $28.5 Billion Gain Ahead of Plunge
  • Eastern Europe Domestic Swine Fever Cases Climb Fivefold in July
  • Berlin’s Fintech Wealth Is Attracting at Least One Private Bank

In FX, the Greenback has waned again, with the DXY fading just ahead of 98.500 and the more significant pinnacle reached at the start of the month when the index scaled fresh ytd highs (98.932). Usd/major pairings remain relatively mixed and rangebound in advance of potentially market-moving and game-changing events to come in the form of FOMC minutes, preliminary PMIs, ECB minutes and then the JC gathering that kicks off tomorrow and runs through to Saturday. In the interim, US existing home sales may provide some impetus as the DXY meanders between 98.302-145.

  • JPY/NZD/CHF/GBP – Another upturn in broad risk sentiment has pushed the safe-haven Yen, Franc and Gold back down from yesterday’s peaks towards 106.60, through 0.9800 and 1500 respectively, but the Kiwi and Pound have also lost ground against the Buck, with Nzd/Usd retesting 0.6400 and Cable retreating from circa 1.2175 to 1.2130. Note, technical resistance at the 21 DMA (1.2172) and ahead of 1.2200 (1.2197 Fib retracement) could have stymied Sterling again along with more clarification from EU officials that any alternatives to the Irish backstop would be facilitated via the PD not the WA.
  • AUD/CAD/EUR – The G10 outperformers, or at least holding up better than the rest as the Aussie retains sight of the 0.6800 handle, Loonie pivots 1.3300 and Euro continues to straddle 1.1100, awaiting aforementioned highlights for the week (on paper at least). Aud/Usd remains supported in wake of RBA minutes underlining a wait-and-see approach after recent rate cuts, while Usd/Cad has retreated from Tuesday’s apex amidst a rebound in crude prices and looking for further direction from Canadian CPI data and the single currency is still showing resilience in the face of Eurozone political instability in Italy and Spain.
  • NOK/SEK – The Scandi Crowns are benefiting from the latest revival in risk appetite and Eur/Nok has topped out ahead of 10.0000 despite weaker than forecast Norwegian unemployment, while Eur/Sek is drifting down from 10.7600+ towards 10.7100 in tandem.
  • EM – A generally firmer tone across the region, with the Rand drawing encouragement from soft SA inflation even though this may prompt more SARB easing, as Usd/Zar breached key chart support around 15.2800 to probe under 15.2200 before returning to 15.2500 and consolidating.

WTI and Brent prices are firmer amid the improvement in risk appetite coupled with support from a larger-than-forecast drawdown in API crude stocks (-3.5mln vs. Exp. -1.9mln). Elsewhere, reports stated that Canada’s Alberta has decided to extend it current production curbs by a year, until the end of 2020 amid slow pipeline progress. Due to the extension, the base limit will increase to 20k BPD from 10k BPD per producers (effective Oct 1st), thus helping out the smaller producers as the first 20k BPD of production will be exempt from cuts. Turning to geopolitics where Fox News, citing sources, reported that an Iranian oil tanker (Bonita Queen) is heading to Syria and carrying around 600k barrels of crude, which would violate Western Sanctions. This comes just days after Iranian tanker Adrian Darya 1 (formerly Grace 1) was released from Gibraltar after being seized regarding suspected exports to Syria. On today’s docket, participants will be eyeing the widely followed weekly DoE inventory data for an immediate catalyst ahead of the FOMC minutes, with headline crude expected to drawdown of 1.889mln. Elsewhere, gold is lacklustre and trades around the 1500/oz mark amid a seemingly improved risk tone and some potential profit taking ahead of the FOMC minutes later. Meanwhile copper moves in tandem with the current risk sentiment and trades higher on the day, albeit prices remain below 2.6/lb. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures declined to 10-week lows amid the ongoing supply/demand imbalance, with traders citing further downside in light of BHP’s bleak outlook for the base metal.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 21.7%
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.39m, prior 5.27m; MoM, est. 2.3%, prior -1.7%
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 6:30pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Economic Conference in Minneapolis

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

There may have been a slight lull in newsflow over the last 24 hours however the few scraps of news that we have been fed have left markets somewhat uninspired. By the close of play last night the S&P 500 ended -0.79%, with similar moves for the NASDAQ (-0.68%) and DOW (-0.66%). There was more political volatility in Italy and reports of new tax cuts in the US, but the dominant factor was again trade. US Secretary of State Pompeo told CNBC that Huawei remains a national security threat and also that he is concerned about “other Chinese companies.” That could portend expanded sanctions, though Pompeo did go on to say that he expects the US and China teams to resume trade talks in the short term. Later in the day, President Trump said that he’s “not ready to make a deal with China” and said that Europe would meet any demand if faced with the threat of tariffs on car imports. In sympathy, safe havens were well bid with 10y Treasury yields down -5.1bps and thus reversing Monday’s move, while Gold closed up +0.75%. The yield curve also flattened another 2.0bps to 3.9bps having started the day closer to 7.0bps.

As for those developments in Italy, as expected Conte confirmed his resignation. Conte made it clear that the populist coalition of the League and 5-Star was over, calling Salvini’s decision to spark a political crisis “irresponsible’, although Salvini did try to make a last ditch attempt to smooth things over with 5-Star in order to pass the 2020 budget before heading to the polls. The question now is what will be President Mattarella’s next move. Mattarella needs to assess if a new coalition is viable or whether elections need to go ahead, most likely in October. Of the outcomes it’s likely that the market would view a PD/5-Star coalition as most favourable with 5-Star having adopted a less confrontational stance on Europe and a more responsible stance on public finances in recent times. Plus, if Mattarella allowed them to form a government, it’s likely that he would require assurances on the budget beforehand. However, the medium term risk is that such a coalition is unstable and falls apart leading to an outright victory for the League.

In terms of markets, BTPs outperformed all other sovereigns yesterday, rallying -6.4bps to 1.367%. Bunds fell -4.2bps to -0.694% and while we’re on them, it’s worth noting that we will likely see the first ever 30y Bund sold at a 0% coupon today when the auction is held this morning. Meanwhile the FTSE MIB dropped -1.11% yesterday, slightly underperforming drops for the STOXX 600 (-0.68%) and DAX (-0.55%). Despite the selloff in equities, European HY credit spreads tightened -6bps, while they widened +2bps in the US.

Overnight, markets appear to be struggling for direction with the Nikkei (-0.33%), Hang Seng (+0.11%), Kospi (+0.33%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.02%) pulling in different directions but on fairly low volumes. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.30% while there’s not much to report in FX or bond markets.

Moving on and looking ahead to today we’ve got the FOMC minutes from the July meeting out tonight. It’s worth noting that there will be an element of staleness to these now given the tariff developments since then however our economists made the point that they may provide an important benchmark for Fed officials’ outlooks prior to the escalation of trade tensions. They note for example, if the minutes indicate officials’ existing economic views were largely predicated on a flare-up in trade tensions, as St. Louis Fed President Bullard (dove/voter) mentioned last week, this would be relatively hawkish as it would imply officials think they do not need to do much more easing than they have already foreshadowed. However, if trade tensions returning to a boil a day after the July meeting was actually a surprise, which would be implied by Powell saying they had “returned to a simmer” in his prepared remarks to open the press conference, this would be consistent with our economists’ call that more monetary policy easing than was built into the June dot plot is to be expected.

In other news, there was some focus on a NY Times article in markets yesterday which suggested that President Trump could abandon some of his tariffs if the US economy threatens to go into recession. It also mentioned a cut to payroll taxes, which would directly boost labour income. That is a somewhat progressive form of tax cut, so it could tempt Democrats into supporting it, but it remains to be seen if the House will want to hand Trump any legislate wins in an election year. Later in the day, President Trump acknowledged that there have been discussions about payroll tax cuts, though he emphasised “whether or not we do it now, it’s not being done because of recession.” He also mentioned indexing capital gains taxes to inflation as another possible form of tax relief, which could be done with executive action, thus avoiding Congress, though legal experts are undecided on if that measure would survive court challenges.

Finally, there were a few Brexit headlines to digest yesterday, with the UK doing nothing to signal a change in their policy of insisting that the backstop be scrapped. Media outlets reported that Chancellor Merkel said “we will think about practical solutions,” which was viewed as a possible signal that the EU may be more willing to negotiate. We’re sceptical that her remarks signalled any change in policy, but the pound nevertheless gained +0.36% and +0.86% from the lows.

To the day ahead now, which this morning includes July public finances and net borrowing data in the UK, while this afternoon in the US we’ll get July existing home sales before the FOMC minutes are released. Away from that the EIA crude oil inventory report will also be released.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.33 POINTS OR 0.01%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 38.50 POINTS OR 0.15%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 58.65 POINTS OR 0.28%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .83%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0644 /Oil UP TO 56.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0644 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0674 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

This is a powder keg: China confirms the detention of a UK consulate worker

(zerohedge)

Beijing Confirms Detention Of UK Consulate Worker

China confirmed that it has detained an employee of the UK consulate in Hong Kong, according to BBC and Bloomberg.

Nearly two weeks after Simon Cheng failed to return from a conference over the border in Shenzen, prompting his girlfriend, with whom he’d purportedly been texting at the time he was seized, to finally go to the press, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said Wednesday that Cheng was being held under a 15-day administrative detention process in the mainland city of Shenzhen. Geng said the issue was “a domestic matter” and not a “diplomatic dispute.”

If he’s only being held for 2 weeks, Cheng should be nearing the end of his time in custody, presumably unless Beijing wants to move ahead with formal charges.

Simon Cheng

The UK’s foreign office said Tuesday that it was “extremely concerned” about Cheng’s disappearance, and was seeking information from authorities in Hong Kong and the southern Chinese province of Guangdong.

In a sign that Cheng’s detention could be retaliation for UK lawmakers’ support for the pro-democracy protesters in HK, Geng cited China’s Public Security Administration Punishment Law, a statute pertaining to minor violations.

Geng warned the UK against meddling in the affairs of its former colony. “The British side has made a lot of erroneous remarks on Hong Kong,” Geng said, urging the UK “to stop pointing fingers and making accusations.”

A “Save Simon Cheng” rally was held Wednesday in HK. 

Bloomberg TicToc

@tictoc

LOOK: Protesters hold a “Save Simon Cheng” demonstration outside the British Council in Hong Kong.

China says the U.K. Consulate staffer has been held under a 15-day administrative detention process in Shenzhen

Embedded video

Cheng’s disappearance has upset the UK consulate (though its reasons for not going public remain a mystery) given Beijing’s tendency to retaliate against diplomatic personnel. Chinese police have charged a former Canadian diplomat and a Canadian businessman with espionage, purportedly as retaliation for the decision to arrest Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou.

END

Real estate prices are huge making living conditions for millennials almost impossible.  This is why many are contemplating moving to Taiwan

(zerohedge)

“A Generation Without A Future”: Millennials Struggle To Survive In Modern Hong Kong

As we pointed out yesterday, migration from Hong Kong to Taiwan has surged this year – but not solely because the streets of Hong Kong have been clogged with protesters since June. Young Hong Kongers, like their American counterparts living in San Francisco and Brooklyn, are struggling with the twin burdens of managing rent in one of the world’s most unaffordable cities. But unlike young Americans, Hong Kongers are also struggling against the creeping authoritarianism from Beijing.

This prompted Bloomberg to name Hong Kong’s millennials “the generation with no hope.”

And its latest profile begins with the story of Billy Tung, a 28-year-old accountant who regularly works weekends, but barely makes enough to share a small apartment that’s been partitioned into six bedrooms.

 

Like many young workers in his situation, Tung is contemplating a move to Taiwan, where housing is more affordable, and which has a much lower cost of living.

Like many Hong Kongers of his generation, Tung finds it hard to save even while he carefully watches his spending on a day-to-day basis, which is why he’s been toying with the idea of moving to Taiwan. “I don’t want to spend the next 10 years working just to give it all away to Hong Kong real estate developers,” he said.

In a description that, probably intentionally, reflects the US, BBG writes about the “cardboard grannies” – elderly poor who have been reduced to picking through trash and recyclables – and a sense of aspirational living that has given way to hopelessness.

And this has been facilitated by a growing lack of economic and political self-determination felt by Hong Kongers.

Hong Kong has long been a land of contrasts in which glittering skyscrapers and chauffeur-driven Rolls-Royces are juxtaposed with decrepit apartment blocks and “cardboard grannies” picking through rubbish in search of recyclables. An aspiration for a share of those riches has been replaced by a growing sense of hopelessness.

Ho-Fung Hung, a professor in political economics who’s a China expert at Johns Hopkins University, says the economic malaise, combined with a perceived loss of cultural identity and frustration at a lack of political voice, is driving young people into the streets. “Participants come from all economic backgrounds,” says Hung. “What binds them together is a shared sense that there is no future for them in Hong Kong. Compared with their parents, they will live a lower quality of life.”

Median property prices in Hong Kong are roughly 21x median household incomes, which is more than Vancouver and Sydney, which come in around 13x and 11%. Meanwhile, wage growth in HK has slowed, while wage growth on the mainland has accelerated.

Huge demand, coupled with constrained supply in a market dominated by a handful of developers and cashed-up buyers from the mainland, has acted as a powerful cocktail to drive up house prices.

Wealthy shoppers from the mainland also drive up the prices of goods, as 1 in 5 Hong Kongers lives in poverty. Young people don’t have much trouble finding work, but too many jobs simply don’t pay a living wage.

As another young freelance worker complained, it’s impossible to survive in HK without support from her family. She’s worried that, when she finally marries, she “won’t have enough for a decent wedding banquet.”

Sze Chan, a 20-year-old who designs menus for restaurants on a freelance basis, has been on the front lines of the protests in recent weeks as police fired tear gas. “Young people in Hong Kong are very confused about the future,” she says. “Unless you get support from your family, it’s impossible for one to live. And with so little left every month, you can’t even have a decent wedding banquet when you marry, let alone buy a home.”

Chan at least has the option of still living at home, without which things would be much tougher. “The young people go on the streets not just because of the political situation—the government’s inability to address social issues plays a role, too. If it’s just about the extradition bill, there wouldn’t be so many people out protesting,” she says.

Yet, unlike their counterparts in the US, Hong Kongers haven’t embraced Communism and Socialism…despite having the world’s largest socialist power breathing down their necks.

END

China is making arrangements on the scenario of a no trade deal

(zerohedge)

“China Is Making Arrangements On Scenario Of No Deal”, Global Times Editor Warns

One day after China warned the US that it won’t make trade concessions if the US “plays the Hong Kong card“, the famous twitter troll Hu Xijin, editor in chief of the nationalist, state owned Chinese newspaper Global Times, amplified the sentiment tweeting moments ago that “China is making arrangements on scenario of no deal” as a result of Trump’s recent shift in strategy that links trade talks with the situation in Hong Kong. “The deterrence of the US not signing the deal on China is close to zero.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

As for Washington’s threat to link trade talks with the situation in Hong Kong, what I heard on various occasions is scorn on this idea. China is making arrangements on scenario of no deal. The deterrence of the US not signing the deal on China is close to zero.

As a reminder, yesterday we reported that in a short commentary published by Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily late on Monday, the author said that events in Hong Kong were the internal affairs of China, and linking them with trade negotiations was a “dirty” aim.

“Making a fuss about Hong Kong will not be helpful to economic and trade negotiations between China and the US,” the commentary said. “They would be naive in thinking China would make concessions if they played the Hong Kong card” the oped cautioned. Chinese diplomatic observers also said Beijing considered the worsening situation in Hong Kong a sovereignty issue and would be highly unlikely to cave to Washington’s pressure.

The remarks followed a statement by US Vice-President Mike Pence on Monday which reiterated President Donald Trump’s demand to tie the largely stalled trade talks with Hong Kong’s deepening crisis, a day after hundreds of thousands of people marched peacefully in defiance of repeated intimidation from Beijing. In an address at the Detroit Economic Club on Monday, Pence said the Trump administration would continue to urge Beijing to resolve differences with the protesters peacefully and warned that it would be harder for Washington to make a trade deal with Beijing if there was violence in the former British territory. Separately, Mike Pompeo said that China should allow Hong Kong protesters the freedom to express themselves, in what China saw as clear interference in its own internal matters.

The Chinese article countered by saying that the top priority for Hong Kong was to stop violence and restore order, adding that US politicians should not send the wrong message to people creating chaos in the city. “In the face of political intimidation, we not only dare to say no, but also take countermeasures,” it warned.

Hu Xijin’s Global Times also warned in an editorial on Monday that American political and public opinion elites should not harbour the illusion they could influence China’s decisions on Hong Kong.

“Because of the trade war, the US has lost the ability to impose additional pressure on China,” it said. “The US should stop its meaningless threat of linking the China-US trade talks with the Hong Kong problem. Beijing did not expect to quickly reach a trade deal with Washington. More Chinese people are prepared that China and the US may not reach a deal for a long time.”

Chinese analysts noted Trump appeared to have hardened his stance on Hong Kong in the past week or so, under growing pressure from US lawmakers and extensive media coverage of the increasingly violent protests.  Indeed, it was only a month ago when we reported that “Trump Abandoned Support For Hong Kong Protests To Revive Trade Talks With Beijing.” Now that trade war is once again front and center, with Trump using it as leverage for further Fed rate cuts, the US president is once again refocusing his attention on Hong Kong.

As the SCMP writes, Trump initially focused on making a deal with China ahead of his 2020 re-election bid and adopted a hands-off approach by characterizing the protests as “riots” which were a matter for China to handle. Over the past few days, he suggested Chinese President Xi Jinping should resolve the situation by meeting with protest leaders and warned that any violence in the handling of the Hong Kong crisis would exacerbate difficulties for attempts to bring an early end to the trade war.

“Trump’s about-face on Hong Kong, from being neutral to piling pressure on Beijing, is largely due to domestic political pressure ahead of the presidential elections,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University and an adviser to the State Council which is China’s cabinet.

But the Hong Kong issue concerns China’s sovereignty and the government’s ability to maintain stability, which in Beijing’s view is of superior priority. China cannot afford to make much compromise and will do everything to fend off interventions from abroad, in spite of all the risks and ramifications,” he said.

Shi also said none of the flashpoints in the bilateral ties – from Hong Kong, Taiwan, to the South China Sea and the denuclearisation of North Korea – had any easy solution in sight, with both sides showing little willingness to cooperate and accommodate the other’s interests. He said the increasingly hardline, confrontational approach on China by Trump – who faced mounting pressure in his bid for re-election, especially amid signs of a looming global economic recession – would only make a trade deal increasingly unattainable.

“Even if there were no Hong Kong crisis, could the US and China reach a trade deal? Even if Beijing caved into Washington’s pressure on Hong Kong, would it make it easier for them to bridge their glaring differences in the trade talks and cut a deal?”

Of course not, and since Trump is far more interested in keeping trade war simmering and on the verge of a substantial escalation if only to keep the Fed on its toes and ready for far more aggressive rate cuts, and even “some quantitative easing”, that’s precisely what the US president wants.

end

Kyle Bass on  China and other issues regarding Hong Kong

(Kyle Bass)

Kyle Bass Summarizes The State Of The World: “This Is Insane!”

Despite interest rates having bounced (albeit very modestly) in the last few days, prompting shrieks of “the lows for yields are in” once again, and hyped-up belief that ‘There Is No Alternative’ to dumping bonds and buying stocks at record highs, Hayman Capital fund manager Kyle Bass has a different view suggesting that a global re-awakening of easier-and-easier monetary policy will drive US rates to zero (and potentially beyond).

This is insane. The Japanese are going to keep going. The Chinese print money like it’s a national pastime today. Europe is going to restart QE.”

During an interview with CNBC, Bass exclaimed:

“We’re the only country that has an integer in front of our bond yields,”

“We have 90% of the world’s investment-grade debt. We actually have rule of law and we have a decent economy. All the money is going to come here.”

 

For now, it appears that money is buying bonds AND stocks…

Which, Bass notes, will spark even more inequality (as ‘assetholders’ get richer – in ever more diluted dollar terms while the rest suffer from inflationary living costs)

“The unintended consequences of central bank printing are that it makes the rich even richer, it makes the middle class stay where they are and it makes the poor stay poor.

Bass also noted that he does not think a China trade deal is anywhere in sight.

I think Trump’s political calculus is to keep talking. If he does a deal, it will be too easy and he’ll get attacked from the right. If he does a deal that’s too difficult, they won’t sign it.”

Watch the full interview below:

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Boris Johnson correctly states that the Irish backstop is not his problem but an EU problem.  He  is ready to leave with no deal and no Irish backstop

(zerohedge)

 

“There’s No Way Out”: Johnson Slams “Undemocratic” Irish Backstop In Letter To European Council

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as barely been in office a month, and he’s already convinced some Britons that he’s ready to take the UK out of the EU, with or without an interim trade deal to soften the blow.

On the other side of the Atlantic, President Trump has pledged to cobble together a trade deal to help bolster Johnson’s popularity should he need to call for an early general election to try and bolster his party’s mandate (the Tories and their coalition control the Commons by one measly vote).  This past week, Johnson has generated headlines for sparring with his Irish counterpart (Leo Varadkar), and with the pound still sliding as investors wager that, yes, Johnson is serious about ‘no deal’ and his ‘Operation Yellowhammer’ isn’t a bluff.

This week, Johnson is focusing on negotiations with the European Council and European Commission before both bodies change over.

And in a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk calling for the Irish backstop to be scrapped. Several key passages were

“The treaty provides no sovereign means of existing unilaterally and affords the people of Northern Ireland no influence over the legislation which applies to them. That is why the backstop is undemocratic.”

As the BBC’s economics and business editor John Campbell explains, the Irish Backstop

Boris Johnson’s focus here is the backstop. That’s the insurance policy – agreed by Theresa May and the European Union (EU) – to avoid a hard Irish border.

It would come into effect after Brexit if the UK and the EU failed to reach a trade deal that would keep the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as open as it is now.

It would keep:

  • the whole of the UK in a customs union with the EU
  • Northern Ireland aligned to some rules of the EU single market

Mr Johnson identifies two problems with this.

First, the UK could not unilaterally bring the backstop to an end, unless it could be proven that the EU was acting in bad faith. In March, the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, concluded if the UK and EU negotiated in good faith but still could not reach an agreement on their long-term relationship, the UK would have “no internationally lawful means” of leaving the backstop without EU agreement.

Secondly, there is the issue of EU single market rules continuing to apply in Northern Ireland. Those rules are set in Brussels, rather than Belfast, meaning Northern Ireland voters would have no direct influence. However, the EU can point to a specialised committee of UK and EU representatives that would be set up to oversee the implementation of the backstop and review cross-border cooperation. Reporting to that committee would be a working group to act as a forum for consultation. And taken together, these arrangements could be interpreted as giving the UK a decision-shaping role in regard to EU rules covered by the backstop.

 

END
France/UK
France is demanding an exit fee, something that boris Johnson clearly does not want to pay and there is no obligation to pay it.  As I have stated to you on several occasions, Britain should leave and negotiate with the USA and other nations a free trade deal and leave the EU dry
(zerohedge)

France Rattles EU Sabre: ‘No-Deal’ Brexit Now Central Scenario, Demands UK Pay Up

Here we go again.

In what sounds like a repeat of the soundbites from early this year, the French government has once again declared that the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement is now its ‘base case’ scenario.

That’s according to an unnamed official in President Emmanuel Macron’s office, according to Bloomberg. That’s because UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is refusing to accept the withdrawal agreement unless the EU agrees to remove the hated Irish Backstop, which, by law, could leave the UK trapped in the EU customs union, but with no authority to offer input into its rules.

EU officials have accused Johnson and his Brexiteers of secretly wanting to reimpose a border between Norther Ireland and Ireland, something that many suspect would lead to a revival of “troubles-era” violence.

But the EU’s accusations sound about as a convincing as the unnamed French officials “threat” that the EU should expect the UK to pay the 39 billion pound ($47 billion) exit bill even if the UK leaves the bloc without a deal.

To wit, Brussels has no obvious way to force the UK government to pay, just like it has no way to force Ireland and the UK to build a land border, as Mish Shedlock recently pointed out.

Mike Mish Shedlock@MishGEA

Hello @eucopresident Donald Tusk and @JunckerEU

WTF are you going to do when Britain ignores the backstop and Ireland does not put in controls?

Insurance notion is a scam unless you have an answer.

See Mike Mish Shedlock’s other Tweets

And he’s not the only one who’s noticed this, and questioned who, exactly, will pay for and erect the land border and customs checkpoint.

Daniel Hannan

@DanielJHannan

The UK has promised not to erect a border. Ireland has promised not to erect a border. So who is going to build it? Donald Trump? With Mexico paying? https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1163757521582116864 

Donald Tusk

@eucopresident

The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support reestablishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.

682 people are talking about this

Will Mexico pay for it? Or maybe “Mr Brexit” himself, President Trump?

Sterling slipped to its LoD following reports that Johnson and his European counterparts were not getting along.

Johnson will meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin Wednesday, and will have lunch with Macron in Paris Thursday to discuss Brexit. All of them will then meet with President Donald Trump over the weekend at the Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France.

As BBG points out, Johnson is, of course, well within his rights to demand that the backstop be removed. And since it’s only intended to be “insurance” in case the two sides don’t reach a trade agreement during the post-Brexit day interim, scrapping the withdrawal agreement and seemingly precluding any hope of an orderly relationship between the two in the near term seems a little like cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.

Which supports the notion that many Brexiteers have held all along: That the ‘backstop’ is merely an attempt by the EU to keep the UK as a nominal (if diminished) member in the customs union. The Europeans have likely been bluffing all along, Shedlock claims. The only thing that’s unclear is whether Theresa May had caught on and was playing along, or not.

Italy
Dembik outlines what comes next in the crisis facing the Italian Government
(courtesy Dembik/Saxobank)

Why Markets Think That The Italian Government Crisis Is Not A Big Deal

Submitted by Christopher Dembik of Saxobank

Market reaction to Italy’s Prime Minister resignation has rather been quiet. Yesterday, Italy-Germany government bond spread was moving lower, around 200 bps, and there was no sign of contagion to other PIIGS countries. Saxo model of periphery weighted spread to Germany (which is GDP weighted) was also down, at 177 bps, close to the lowest levels reached this year.

Investors seem to believe that, in a central bank world, political risk does not matter as long as it is not linked to Eurozone/EU membership. On the top of that, expectations of further ECB stimulus in September, which could consist in a new QE package coupled with lower deposit rate, is also pushing down interest rates.

Conte’s resignation turns the focus to Italian President Mattarella. We think there are mostly three options to solve the ongoing political crisis:

1. A grand coalition that could gather the PD and the M5S with potential participation of Forza Italia (this scenario, that was quite unlikely a few days ago, has been intensively discussed since yesterday). It would be the most market-friendly option and it seems to be supported by the European Commission ahead of budget discussion.

Market impact: LOW. Italy-Germany gov. bond spread around current level, at 200 bps.

2.A caretaker government whose main objectives would be to pass 2020 budget and implement more tightening in order to be in line with the European Commission’s deficit target. At first, it looks more market-friendly than the previous option, but this government is unlikely to last long. New elections would need to take place next year. This option would be a form of “extend and pretend”.

Market impact: VERY POSITIVE (at first). Italy-Germany gov. bond spread below 200 bps.

3. Snap elections in Q4 2019. This option implies an elevated risk that Salvini could be in a position to form a right-wing coalition, which would increase tensions with the EU and other European governments, notably France.

Market impact: NEGATIVE. Italy-Germany gov. bond spread back to 300 bps.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

We now have another Iranian oil tanker heading for Syria.  It will transfer its load onto Syrian cargo ships. No doubt that they will be watched and will probably be taken hostage like the Grace one

(zerohedge)

Another Tanker With Iranian Oil Now Headed For Syria, Intel Sources Say

A new report suggests we could be headed toward yet another Grace 1-type incident and showdown involving an Iranian tanker intercept by US or UK forces.

A tanker full of Iranian oil is said to be currently on its way to Dubai, with an ultimate offload destination of its 600,000 barrels of oil in Syria. According to the breaking Fox report, citing unnamed Western intelligence sources:

The Bonita Queen loaded 600,000 barrels of crude oil on August 2 near the Iranian coast at Kharg Island. Shortly after, the tanker was de-flagged by the country of St. Kitts and Nevis, fearing retaliatory U.S. sanctions.

The vessel is now headed to Dubai, where it will refuel before beginning a months-long journey around the horn of Africa, through the Mediterranean and to the shores of Syria.

 

Bonita Queen tanker, via Baltic Shipping 

The Bonita Queen, according to its reported route, intends tolink up with two Syrian-owned tankers in the Mediterranean in the coming months, where it will conduct a ship-to-ship transfer of the Iran-sourced crude. 

Analysts have claimed to identify the Syrian tankers as the “Kader” and “Jasmine” — described as owned by a businessman said to be close to Assad, Muhammad al-Qatirji. Qatirji and his firm, the Qatirji Company, are under sanction by the US Treasury.

TankerTrackers.com, Inc.⚓️🛢@TankerTrackers

We can’t say for sure where Bonita Queen is going because she’s still anchored off of Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. There are three other vessels currently en route to Syria. Also, BQ still doesn’t officially have an Iranian flag, and without it she’ll risk arrest at Suez https://twitter.com/HezbollahWatch/status/1163891213830959105 

Hezbollah Watch®@HezbollahWatch

🇮🇷#Iran‘s Bonita Queen tanker, carrying 600K barrels of oil, headed to Dubai before cont. to #Syria🇸🇾 thru the horn of Africa, @TreyYingst reports.

Sources say the ship plans to meet 2 Syrian owned oil tankers in the Medit. later this year to conduct STS.https://www.foxnews.com/world/tanker-iranian-oil-syria-sanctions 

The news comes just as the newly released from Gibraltar/UK custody Iran-flagged Adrian Darya, previously called the Grace 1, is on the move and is headed to waters off Greece.

 

end

Yemen/Iran/USA/Houthis

This is not good:  Iran is supplying better and longer range missiles.  Last night a USA drone was shot down by a surface to air missile.  This should frighten Saudi Arabia to no end.

(zerohedge)

US Drone Downed By Surface-To-Air Missile Over Yemen

Putting to rest any remaining doubt of America’s continued deep military involvement in the Yemen war, a US military drone was shot down outside the Yemeni capital of Sanaa on Tuesday night.

After local footage of fiery wreckage falling from the night sky over Yemen appeared online, US officials confirmed to Reuterson Wednesday that it was authentic, and further it was the second such US drone shoot down in months.

ba ezzo@abojibreel

Yemen Air Defense shot down a US drone over Thamar in Yemen using a locally manufactured missile that will be unveiled soon. pic.twitter.com/Cs0AAWzGm3

Embedded video

It is believed that Shia Houthi rebels, still in control of Sanaa, intercepted the drone through a surface-to-air missile. The prior incident occurred in June, which the Pentagon has blamed also on Iran for providing outside assistance to Houthis on the ground.

A Houthi military spokesman, Yahya Saria, touted the drone downing as part of an increasingly sophisticated response to foreign aircraft in the country’s skies: “The rocket which hit it was developed locally and will be revealed soon at a press conference,” Saria said in a statement. The group’s official Al-Masirah TV identified the aircraft as a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper Drone.

“Our skies are no longer open to violations as they once were and the coming days will see great surprises,” he added.

Hussain Albukhaiti@HussainBukhaiti

NEWS
Vivid footage-i air defense shooting down a spying drone type over my city of Dhamaar
I think It’s the 5th made drone to be shot down over my country but it’s the first on my city
This show you that US is fully involved in the war on my country

Embedded video

Houthi media also released footage purporting to show the surface-to-air missile that took out the multi-million dollar Pentagon drone.

This also comes as Houthi ballistic missile reach into Saudi Arabia has become more deadly and extensive of late, with airports in the country’s southwest being struck multiple times over the past months.

Both Saudi and US officials have pointed the finger at Iran for supplying Shia forces in Yemen with these longer range weapons, as part of a broader proxy war for the Middle East.

 

Iran’s finances are deteriorating rapidly as they are about to enter hyperinflation as they cannot sell their oil. OIl is the only big ticket item. A nation that is bust can do many unpredictable things…we  must pay attention to this very closely
(zerohedge)

“Chaotic & Unpredictable”: Iran Vows Oil Routes Won’t Be Safe If It Can’t Export

The White House policy of taking Iranian oil exports to “zero” still has a long way to go, thanks in no small part to China, and also despite Pompeo touting this week that US sanctions have removed nearly 2.7 million barrels of Iranian oil from global markets.

US frustration was evident upon the release of the Adrian Darya 1, with Gibraltar resisting Washington pressures to hand over the Iranian vessel, given as its en route to Greece, American officials are now warning that they will sanction anyone who touches the tanker

Seizing on Washington’s frustration as part of its own “counter-pressure” campaign of recent weeks, Iran has again stated if it can’t export its own oil, it will make waterways unsafe and “unpredictable” for anyone else to to so

 

Image source: Getty/Daily Express

“World powers know that in the case that oil is completely sanctioned and Iran’s oil exports are brought down to zero,international waterways can’t have the same security as before,” President Hassan Rouhani said while meeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Khamenei’s official website.

“So unilateral pressure against Iran can’t be to their advantage and won’t guarantee their security in the region and the world,” Rouhani said.

The provocative statements corresponded with similar remarks from Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who also warned Tehran might act “unpredictably” in response to “unpredictable” US policies under Trump, according to Reuters

Zarif made the statements in a speech at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) while on a broader tour of European countries urging leaders to resist US sanctions threats and abide by commitments under the JCPOA:

Mutual unpredictability will lead to chaos. President Trump cannot expect to be unpredictable and expect others to be predictable. Unpredictability will lead to mutual unpredictability and unpredictability is chaotic,” Zarif said.

Iran’s military has repeatedly said it alone can secure the vital Strait of Hormuz tanker route, while at the same time warning any outside ‘maritime coalition’ patrols would be seen as an act of aggression, especially involving the US or Israel.

END

6.Global Issues

I have commented on this Bellwether to you on several occasions..the status of the global RV industry.  A contraction in this industry fortels that a recession is imminent

(zerohedge)

“This Is The Worse I’ve Seen It” – Recession Imminent As RV Industry Crashes

To elaborate more on our July report titled “Trade War Chaos: Trump’s Tariffs Crash American RV Industry,” it seems the RV industry continues to flash a recessionary warning light.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Elkhart, Indiana, is the industrial hub of American RV manufacturing, has been used by analysts and economist as a leading indicator of consumer demand for luxury items.

Domestic shipments of RVs to dealers have plummeted 20% so far this year, compared to the same period last year, after dropping 4% in 2018, according to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association.

Michael Hicks, a Ball State University economist who tracks the industry, warned that the fall in RV shipments could indicate a broader economic downturn is ahead. Hicks said shipments had fallen sharply just before the last three U.S. recessions.

Hicks said, “the RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are.”

He said weakening consumer demand for RVs coupled with increasing vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is headed for a downturn.

Nearly two-thirds of recreational vehicles in the US are manufactured in the Elkhart region, as well as other durable goods. Elkhart ships its RVs to dealers across the country, who are sensitive to demand and are cautious not to order too much inventory. Any pullback by the consumer can instantly ripple through the supply chain back into Elkhart manufacturing plants.

“Elkhart is very distinctive because it is so highly dependent on the RV industry,” said Morton Marcus, a retired economist formerly at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business. “As a result, it tends to be very cyclical with the kind of product consumers can very easily say, no that’s too big a ticket item for me to buy this year.”

The slowdown has already ticked up the unemployment rate in Elkhart County, which has a population of 200,000, was 3% in June, up from 2.1% last April. Weekly hours worked dropped a 1/2 percent in June.

In the last recession, Elkhart’s unemployment rate soared to 20% in 2009.

Thor Industries commands 50% of the North America RV market, recently reported its sales dropped 23% in its fiscal third quarter, which ended in April, compared to a year ago. Production cuts and layoffs have been in full swing at some of Thor’s North American plants.

Thor assembler Demiris Jahmal Williams told Reuters his hours were slashed, and his factory has been shut down through July.

“This is the worse I’ve seen it,” he said.

Managers at RV manufacturers and suppliers said President Trump’s trade war sparked the slowdown in Elkhart.

“The tariff price increases are what tipped the RV business — it started the landslide, no question,” said Tom Bond, the materials and purchasing manager at Adnik Manufacturing, an Elkhart-based division of Norco Industries.

Baird analyst Craig Kennison estimates retail sales of RVs this year could be down mid-to-high single digits and expects a similar decline next year.

And according to Hick’s comments, the next recession may have already arrived with declining RV shipments expected to fall for 2019 and 2020.

Any rate cut in September is three quarters too late, the downturn has already begun.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Venezuela

Allies are getting read to invade Venezuela.  Let us see what China and Russia go as these nations have interests i Venezuela

(zerohedge)

War Drums: US Navy “Ready” For Venezuela Conflict, Says Top Commander

The US Navy is preparing for a conflict with Venezuela, a top US Naval commander said earlier this week.

Adm. Craig Faller, who oversees the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) said Tuesday that the Navy must be ready to “do what needs to be done” on Venezuela.

“I won’t speak to details of what we’re planning and what we’re doing, but we remain ready to implement policy decisions, and we remain on the balls of our feet,” Faller told reporters.

He added: “The United States Navy is the most powerful Navy in the world. If a policy decision is made to deploy the Navy, I’m convinced that we’ll be able to do what needs to be done.”

 

Faller made the remarks in Rio de Janeiro, a large seaside city in Brazil, as the US launched UNITAS 2019, a multinational war exercise that is conducted annually in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Michael Finley@MFinley0311

RT USMC:

Tomorrow, the world’s longest-running multinational maritime exercise, UNITAS LX, kicks off in Brazil. pic.twitter.com/Un04vr5lyn

— U.S. Marines (USMC) August 19, 2019

Embedded video

The annual war exercise is being conducted off the coast of Brazil until Aug. 30.

Faller said UNITAS 2019 would send a clear message to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

“[It] sends a message to Maduro and other partners that don’t share the same values,” he said. “Naval exercises send a message to the world of what democracies that work together can do across a range of complex threats.”

“The US government[‘s] focus continues to be to place focused and targeted pressure on an illegitimate regime to ensure there’s a transition to a legitimate, democratic government. Part of that focus is to ensure that the right humanitarian assistance is allowed to get to the people who need it,” Faller said.

Maduro has been in power since 2013, but in January, opposition leader Juan Guaido declared himself as interim president, attempting to remove Maduro. The US and at least 50 other countries recognize Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela.

Russia, China, and Cuba are countries that have denounced the US’ interventionist activities in the country. Russia has pledged to send warships to support Maduro, Newsweek recently reported.

Venezuela is suffering from economic collapse, with 25% of its 30 million population in desperate need of aid, according to the United Nations.

Millions have fled into Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and other nearby countries in the last several years.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration froze all Venezuelan government assets in the US, which clearly escalated economic and diplomatic pressure on Maduro.

Faller was asked about how Maduro will respond to the war drills, he said, “I don’t know how Maduro looks at anything.”

President Trump’s war hawks, if that is Secretary of State Mike Pompeo or National Security Advisor John Bolton, have actively been laying the groundwork in the last several years for conflict in Venezuela.

And it seems the possibility of conflict with Venezuela could be increasing, if not maybe somewhere else around the world [Strait of Hormuz], that is because the White House is preparing for a mild recession in 2020. And what better way to stimulate a faltering economy than a conflict, which is the best fiscal stimulus possible.

END

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1106 UP .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.46 UP 0.187 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2143   DOWN   0.0019  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3289 DOWN .0028 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 0.33 POINTS OR 0.01% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 38.50 POINTS OR 0.28%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,83%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 38.50 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.33 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 83% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 58.65  POINTS OR 0.28%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1499.80

silver:$17.08-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.58% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.06 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.10 DOWN 3 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.13% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.24%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.10%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,34 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 124 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.68% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.01% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1098  UP     .0005 or 5 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.45 UP .185 OR YEN UP 19  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2141 DOWN .0021 POUND DOWN 21  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 39 basis points to 1.3279

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0424    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0474  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7136 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.24%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.56 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.04 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.19 UP 1  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 78.97  1.11%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 151.67 POINTS OR 1.30%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 90.84 POINTS 1.70%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 83.2 POINTS or 0.97%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 363.64 POINTS OR 1.77%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.07 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 60.56 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    65.78  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.71 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LHIGHER BY 71 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.68 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.67//

 

 

BRENT :  60.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.58 UP 3 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.07 UP 3 BASIS PTS..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.11082 ( DOWN 14   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.63 UP .362 (YEN DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.31 UP 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2122 DOWN 40  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7183

 

 

the Russian rouble 65.82   UP 0.68 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 68 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3292 DOWN 26 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0424  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0692 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.68%

 

The Dow closed UP 240.29 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 71.65 POINTS OR 0.90%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.83 CLOSED DOWN 1.67

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.149%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Yield Curve Tumbles Back Into Inversion As Fed Sparks Mid-Cycle Maelstrom

Today’s chaos was brought to you by the the words “mid-cycle” (market threw a tantrum that The Fed Minutes were not more dovish) and “inverted” (the much-watched 2s10s curve tumbled back into inversion)  and the number ’16’ (line in the sand for VIX and gamma)

Chinese stocks trod water overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks surged on the day, led by Italy…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond headlines dominated Europe with an ugly 30Y zero-coupon auction sparking yield chaos then a bid came in…

Source: Bloomberg

US equities accelerated once again overnight for no good reason but stalled once the Fed Minutes hit (and confirmed the mid-cycle language)…

 

 

The S&P 500 stalled at critical resistance once again (NOTE – today’s highs for S&P were lower highs than yesterday and that was lower than Monday’s highs)…

 

VIX plunged back through 16 as short gamma scramble sent stocks soaring…

 

 

Bond yields, stocks, and the dollar all decoupled as Europe opened, then The Fed sparked recoupling (short-end notably underperformed long-end)…

Source: Bloomberg

A very choppy day for bonds with The Fed Minutes sparking a surge in yields on the hawksih mid-cycle language…

Source: Bloomberg

Roundtrip in TSY yields on the day, selling in Asia and buying in Europe…

Source: Bloomberg

The Treasury curve (2s10s) plunged back to inversion…

Source: Bloomberg

 

The Dollar index limped lower into the Fed Minutes and weakened immediately after (testing unchanged on the week), before some humans read the document and the dollar spiked…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, China attempted to squeeze yuan shorts overnight (one-week CNH Hibor rises 44bps to 3.8457%, highest since Nov. 23, three-month CNH hibor +14bps to 3.56967%, one-month +26bps to 3.64817%; both highest since May 14) which briefly sent yuan higher, but that did not last

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had a bad day…

Source: Bloomberg

But Bitcoin once again found support at around $10k…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Gold and Silver were lower on the day (sliding after the Minutes) but WTI tumbled most on the day on notable product builds that offset crude’s draw

Source: Bloomberg

WTI fell back below $56…

 

Finally, we note that if The Fed was less-dovish-than-the-market-demands at the end of July, and the macro data has done nothing but surge positively since then, what option is there apart from a stock market plunge, to ensure The Fed delivers the 50bps that will ‘fix’ everything…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON/FOMC Minutes

 

THE KLOWNS ON K STREET HATH THUS SPOKEN..PAY ATTENTION TO THESE DOORKNOBS…SUCH LUNATICS

(COURTESY ZEROHEDGE)

FOMC Minutes Show “Most Fed Officials” Saw Rate-Cut As “Mid-Cycle Adjustment”

Since The Federal Reserve cut interest rates (for the first time in over a decade), the world has started worrying about recession (and the 2s10s curve inverted)…

Which might explain why US equity markets have floundered as bonds and bullion have been bid…

And, yuugely disappointing for President Trump, the dollar is modestly higher.

But there is one thing that has dramatically improved… the economic data!!

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, setting the scene for today’s Minutes, the market is now demanding more rate-cuts for the rest of 2019 than it did BEFORE the actual Fed rate-cut (thanks to Trump’s escalation of the trade war and China’s currency response)…

Source: Bloomberg

So, what did the dissentful, pre-tariffs, Minutes show?

The Fed Minutes are problematic for markets as they confirm that “most Fed officials see the July rate-cut as a ‘mid-cycle adjustment”and not the beginning of an epic easing cycle that investors are demanding.

Additionally, here are the key takeaways from the minutes:

On the need to remain “flexible”:

A number of participants suggested that the nature of many of the risks they judged to be weighing on the economy, and the absence of clarity regarding when those risks might be resolved, highlighted the need for policymakers to remain flexible and focused on the implications of incoming data for the outlook.

Most saw the rate cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment”, not the start of an easing cycle:

Most participants viewed a proposed quarter- point policy easing at this meeting as part of a re calibration of the stance of policy, or mid-cycle adjustment, in response to the evolution of the economic outlook over recent months.

A rate cut is not to boost the economy but to mitigate risk:

A policy easing at this meeting would be a prudent step from a risk- management perspective.

Two ultra doves were heard: Bullard and Kashkari…

A couple of participants indicated that they would have preferred a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at this meeting rather than a 25 basis point reduction.

… But there were more, who favored not cutting rates:

Several participants favored maintaining the same target range at this meeting, judging that the real economy continued to be in a good place, bolstered by confident consumers, a strong job market, and a low rate of unemployment.

As usual, trade was the big concern:

Participants generally judged that the risks associated with trade uncertainty would remain a persistent headwind for the outlook

… but “few” were worried about the inverted yield curve:

A few participants expressed the concern that the inversion of the Treasury yield curve, as evidenced by the 10-year yield falling below the 3-month yield, had persisted for about two months, which could indicate that market participants anticipated weaker economic conditions in the future and that the Federal Reserve would soon need to lower the federal funds rate substantially in response.

*  *  *

Ahead of the FOMC Minutes, the odds of a 50bps cut in September had fallen to 11% (but still above where they were at the last Fed meeting).

Source: Bloomberg

What will the (admittedly dated) Minutes do to attitudes now?

*  *  *

Full Minutes below:

 

end

Then Market reaction:

Stocks Shrug Off Fed’s “Mid-Cycle” Language, Bond Yields & Dollar Dive

Stocks decoupled from bonds and the dollar as Europe opened overnight but since FOMC Minutes showed “most Fed officials” do not see this as the beginning of a great easing cycle, bond yields (makes sense) and the dollar (?) have slipped lower..

As stocks stay near the highs…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Despite what the Minutes said, the odds of a 50bps cut in September are higher (at 15% from 11% before the minutes)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, spot the odd one out… Dow +300 points, 10Y TSY Yield unchanged, USD Index unchanged.

end

and then this:

Fed Minutes Hint At Coming QE

Ignore all the hoopla about the “mid-cycle adjustment” being the dominant theme in the  July 30-31 FOMC minutes, and focus on what matters: the coming QE.

In the minutes, which had no less than six mentions of “asset purchases“, i. e QE, the Fed made it clear that with the S&P not even 5% below all time highs, the FOMC was already contemplating the next round of QE, with “several participants” lamenting that the Fed had not bought up even more Treasurys and MBS (and who knows, maybe stocks) because, get this, QE had not resulted in hyperinflation (yet). No, really:

In particular, a number of participants commented that, as many of the potential costs of the Committee’s asset purchases had failed to materialize, the Federal Reserve might have been able to make use of balance sheet tools even more aggressively over the past decade in providing appropriate levels of accommodation. However, several participants remarked that considerable uncertainties remained about the costs and efficacy of asset purchases, and a couple of participants suggested that, taking account of the uncertainties and the perceived constraints facing policymakers in the years following the recession, the Committee’s decisions on the amount of policy accommodation to provide through asset purchases had been appropriate.

But if that statement is simply ridiculous, the next one will result in a scene right out of scanners. According to the minutes, an unknown number of participants thought that just because they had already conducted QE, they are now experts, and any future cases of QE will be a walk in the park:

In their discussion of policy tools, participants noted that the experience acquired by the Committee with the use of forward guidance and asset purchases has led to an improved understanding of how these tools operate; as a result, the Committee could proceed more confidently and preemptively in using these tools in the future if economic circumstances warranted.

Why would the Fed pivot toward QE? Because everyone else is doing it of course:

Expectations for near-term domestic policy easing had occurred against the backdrop of a global shift toward more accommodative monetary policy. Several central banks had eased policy over the past month and a number of others shifted to an easing bias. Market participants were particularly attentive to a statement after the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting that was perceived as affirming expectations for further easing and additional asset purchases. These changes to the policy outlook in the United States and across a number of countries appeared to play an important role in supporting financial conditions and offsetting some of the drag on growth from trade tensions and other risks.

And if that wasn’t scary enough, in the same document there were no less than 15 mentions of ELB (i.e., effective lower bound), which as Fed watchers know, is a code name for NIRP. In other words, Trump should keep up his high-pressure campaign on Powell: it appears to be working.

ii)Market data/USA

Existing home sales finally break their 16 month losing streak by rising a bit

(zerohedge)

Existing Home Sales Rise Year-Over-Year, Break 16-Month Losing-Streak

Existing home sales were expected to rebound 2.5% in July after sliding 1.7% in June (while new- and pending-home sales bounced), and hit the number spot on (despite a small upward revision in June to -1.3% MoM.

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes increased in July to a five-month high.

 

And, after 16 straight months of declines, existing home sales managed to rise (+0.6%) on a year-over-year basis

 

The median sales price increased 4.3% from a year earlier to $280,800.

The July gain reflected “incredibly low mortgage rates and strong job market conditions,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a briefing in Washington.

The decline in sales during the first half of the year will probably be reversed by December, he said.

Home sales improved in three of the four U.S. regions, led by an 8.3% surge in the West; the 1.18 million pace in the West was the strongest in a year.

And while existing home sales have rebounded as mortgage rates plunged, the marginal benefit appears to be fading fast.

But still, Powell should cut 100bps to save the “best economy ever.”

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Scott Galloway is a well known author and brilliant analyst and aPressor of Business at the famed NY Stern’s Business school.  He outlines the financial misrepresentation of value with respect to WeWork.  In essence this company is a fraud and will go bust

WeWTF?!

Scott Galloway, the best-selling author, well-known tech-industry pundit, and professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business, unleashed his special kind of wit and financial weaponry on WeWork’s recent S-1 filing.

Writing on his “No Mercy / No Malice” blog, Galloway says any Wall Street analyst who believes WeWork’s worth over $10 billion is “lying, stupid, or both.”

WeWTF

Really? Really?

I’ve started nine firms and I’m, generously, 3-4-2 (win-lose-tie). In retrospect, and I think about this a lot, the only reliable forward-looking indicator of our firm’s success or failure was … timing. Specifically, the part of the economic cycle at founding. The firms we started in recessions had an easier time finding talent, controlling costs, and getting immediate feedback about if this thing worked as clients/consumers held their purse strings closed. Then, armed with a battle-tested value proposition, as the recession ended, we enjoyed the afterburner of confidence to spend more and try new things. #disco.

In frothy markets, it’s easy to enter into a consensual hallucination, with investors and markets, that you’re creating value. And it’s easy to wallpaper over the shortcomings of the business with a bull market’s halcyon: cheap capital. WeWork has brought new meaning to the word wallpaper. This is more reminiscent of the cheap marbled panelling you’d find in Mike Brady’s home office — panelling whose mucilaginous coating will dissipate at the first whiff of a recession, revealing a family of raccoons or the mummified corpses of drug mules.

The features of seventies sitcom panelling:

Cult

WeWork’s prospectus has a dedication (no joke): “We dedicate this to the power of We — greater than any one of us, but inside each of us.” Pretty sure Jim Jones had t-shirts printed up with this inspiring missive. Speaking of idolatry, “Adam” (as in Neumann) is mentioned 169 times, vs. an average of 25 mentions for founder/CEOs in other unicorn prospectuses. Uber’s CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, is mentioned 29 times in their prospectus. Granted, “Adam” is super dreamy, in sort of an Argentinian polo player way (he’s Israeli). But he’s not 6x dreamier than Dara, who has a whole “Omar Sharif, if he went to Brown” thing going on. But I digress. We’s mission is “to elevate the world’s consciousness.” Maybe, but it’s clear the mission of the prospectus is to dampen our consciousness ahead of the sh*tshow that is “The Story of Us: We.”

Nomenclature 

Find the hottest sector, and if you don’t have the insight, IP, genius, capital, code, skills, human capital, or a clue, then just borrow the words. SAAS firms trade at a multiple of revenues (yay), vs. real estate firms, which trade at a multiple of EBITDA (boo). So, We isn’t a real estate firm renting desks, it’s a Space as a Service (SAAS) firm. I know, use the word “technology” over and over, despite having little R&D and computers and stuff, and voilà … we’re Salesforce.

Today I froze water and used this technology to reconfigure the environment encapsulating my Zacapa and Coke. So, I’m Bill Gates. Better yet, today I began calling my wife Gisele, which I’m pretty sure means I’m the starting QB for the Pats.

At WeWTF, you’re not a guest, but a member. Member has a more “recurring revenue” sound to it. So, I plan to be a member tomorrow night at the Marriott in Boston, where I will then get membership to the TD Center so I can watch a 21-year-old Canadian (Shawn Mendes) with my 8-year-old son — also a member of the Marriott and TD Center, for tomorrow at least.

Invented Metrics

GAAP accounting standards got you down? No problema at WeWTF. We has begun reporting “Community-based EBITDA,” profitability before the BITDA, but is also taking out expenses, including real-estate, that comprise the bulk of cost required to deliver the service. A more honest description of the metric would be “EBEE, Earnings Before Everything Else.” As someone who follows stocks and goes on TV to pretend I have any idea which direction a given stock is going, I’d like to suggest a few metrics to provide insight into We:

  • EBG, Earnings Before Gluten
  • EBBG, Earnings Before the Big Dawg (tennis balls, pig’s ears, etc.)
  • EBEPW, Earnings Before Equal Pay for Women

Red Flags

My goddaughter informed me she’s dating a club promoter, a red flag. Occasionally, red flags marry each other, the Biebs and Hailey Baldwin — what could go wrong? So now, imagine red flags the dimensions of Kansas. Buckle up:

— Adam Neumann has sold $700 million in stock. As a founder, I’ve sold shares into a secondary offering to get some liquidity and diversify holdings. Ok, I get it. But 3/4 of a billion dollars? This is 700 million red flags that spell words on the field of a football field at halftime: “Get me the hell out of this stock, but YOU should buy some.”

— Gross margins are a pretty decent proxy for how good or bad a business is. And this is a sh**ty business:

— Adam has several family members working in the business who make “less than $200,000.”

— The ownership structure chart is similar to a hieroglyphic on a cave wall about the survival of the species: Harvest the crops when the sun is high in the horizon, do not venture over the hills, hostile tribes live there, and … don’t buy this stock. The corporate governance structure of WeWTF makes Chinese firms look American, pre–big tech.

— The related party section of this prospectus reads like the Trump administration. Adam owns 10 buildings, several that he leased to WeWTF at a handsome profit. Adam also owned the rights to the “We” trademark, which the firm decided they must own and paid the founder/CEO $5.9 million for the rights. The rights to a name nearly identical to the name of the firm where he’s the founder/CEO and largest shareholder.

YOU. CAN’T. MAKE. THIS. SH*T. UP.

— Mismatched durations. The founder of Kohlberg Capital, Jim Kohlberg (total gangster), taught me investment firms go out of business because of “mismatched durations.” It’s about raising money short (customers who can stop buying your product service soon/tomorrow) and investing money long (10-year leases). WeWTF is an especially risky business going into a recession, when the ability to variabilize costs is limited, but revenue decline is unlimited. WeWTF has $47 billion in long-term obligations (leases) and will do $3 billion in revenue this year. What could go wrong?

There are other businesses like this (real estate, Hertz), and they are good businesses. Businesses that trade at, I don’t know, 0.5 to 2x revenues. However, WeWTF is claiming it’s not in this neighborhood, or even the same planet. So, let’s talk valuation.

Insane. Seriously loco. Ok, let’s assume WeWTF is onto something, better than peer IWG or Hertz. But is this firm, trading at 26x revenues, superior to Amazon, which trades at 4x revenues? There appears to be no scale effects, as losses have kept pace with revenue growth. There is little pricing power, as they are still a mole on the elephant of commercial real estate. There is no defensible IP, no technology, no regulatory moats, no network effects, and no flywheel effect (the ancillary businesses are stupid, just stupid).

The last round $47 billion “valuation” is an illusion. SoftBank invested at this valuation with a “pref,” meaning their money is the first money out, limiting the downside. The suckers, idiots, CNBC viewers, great Americans, and people trying to feel young again who buy on the first trade — or after — don’t have this downside protection. Similar to the DJIA, last-round private valuations are harmful metrics that create the illusion of prosperity. The bankers (JPM and Goldman) stand to register $122 million in fees flinging feces at retail investors visiting the unicorn zoo. Any equity analyst who endorses this stock above a $10 billion valuation is lying, stupid, or both. 

Adam’s wife is Gwyneth Paltrow’s cousin, meaning Adam is two degrees removed from Goop, an assault on humanity.

Ms. Neumann created controversy when she went on CNBC and said: “A big part of being a woman is to help men [like Adam] manifest their calling in life.”

Ok, fine … whatever works for you and Adam. But it’s not retail investors’ role to help Adam realize his calling — he should feel pretty manifested with $700 million. The panelling is compelling and cool, but it’s beginning to curl and the substance behind the wood veneer stinks. I mean, stinks.

*  *  *

Follow Galloway on Twitter at @profgalloway.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

If declassified these 10 documents would destroy the narrative perpetrated by the Democrats

(zerohedge/John Solomon)

Solomon: If Trump Declassifies These 10 Documents, Democrats Are Doomed

As the Russiagate circus attempts to quietly disappear over the horizon, with Democrats preferring to shift the anti-Trump narrative back to “racist”, “white supremacist”, “xenophobe”, and the mainstream media ready to squawk “recession”; the Trump administration may have a few more cards up its sleeve before anyone claims the higher ground in this farce we call an election campaign.

Source

As The Hill’s John Solomon details, in September 2018 that President Trump told my Hill.TV colleague Buck Sexton and me thathe would order the release of all classified documents showing what the FBI, the Department of Justice (DOJ) and other U.S. intelligence agencies may have done wrong in the Russia probe.

And while it’s been almost a year since then, of feet-dragging and cajoling and deep-state-fighting, we wonder, given Solomon’s revelations below, if the president is getting ready to play his ‘Trump’ card.

Here are the documents that Solomon believes  have the greatest chance of rocking Washington, if declassified:

1.)   Christopher Steele’s confidential human source reports at the FBI. These documents, known in bureau parlance as 1023 reports, show exactly what transpired each time Steele and his FBI handlers met in the summer and fall of 2016 to discuss his anti-Trump dossier. The big reveal, my sources say, could be the first evidence that the FBI shared sensitive information with Steele, such as the existence of the classified Crossfire Hurricane operation targeting the Trump campaign. It would be a huge discovery if the FBI fed Trump-Russia intel to Steele in the midst of an election, especially when his ultimate opposition-research client was Hillary Clinton and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). The FBI has released only one or two of these reports under FOIA lawsuits and they were 100 percent redacted. The American public deserves better.

2.)   The 53 House Intel interviews. House Intelligence interviewed many key players in the Russia probe and asked the DNI to declassify those interviews nearly a year ago, after sending the transcripts for review last November. There are several big reveals, I’m told, including the first evidence that a lawyer tied to the Democratic National Committee had Russia-related contacts at the CIA.

3.)   The Stefan Halper documents. It has been widely reported that European-based American academic Stefan Halper and a young assistant, Azra Turk, worked as FBI sources. We know for sure that one or both had contact with targeted Trump aides like Carter Page and George Papadopoulos at the end of the election. My sources tell me there may be other documents showing Halper continued working his way to the top of Trump’s transition and administration, eventually reaching senior advisers like Peter Navarro inside the White House in summer 2017. These documents would show what intelligence agencies worked with Halper, who directed his activity, how much he was paid and how long his contacts with Trump officials were directed by the U.S. government’s Russia probe.

4.)   The October 2016 FBI email chain. This is a key document identified by Rep. Nunes and his investigators. My sources say it will show exactly what concerns the FBI knew about and discussed with DOJ about using Steele’s dossier and other evidence to support a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant targeting the Trump campaign in October 2016. If those concerns weren’t shared with FISA judges who approved the warrant, there could be major repercussions.

5.)   Page/Papadopoulos exculpatory statements. Another of Nunes’ five buckets, these documents purport to show what the two Trump aides were recorded telling undercover assets or captured in intercepts insisting on their innocence. Papadopoulos told me he told an FBI undercover source in September 2016 that the Trump campaign was not trying to obtain hacked Clinton documents from Russia and considered doing so to be treason. If he made that statement with the FBI monitoring, and it was not disclosed to the FISA court, it could be another case of FBI or DOJ misconduct.

6.)   The ‘Gang of Eight’ briefing materials. These were a series of classified briefings and briefing books the FBI and DOJ provided key leaders in Congress in the summer of 2018 that identify shortcomings in the Russia collusion narrative. Of all the documents congressional leaders were shown, this is most frequently cited to me in private as having changed the minds of lawmakers who weren’t initially convinced of FISA abuses or FBI irregularities.

7.)   The Steele spreadsheet. I wrote recently that the FBI kept a spreadsheet on the accuracy and reliability of every claim in the Steele dossier. According to my sources, it showed as much as 90 percent of the claims could not be corroborated, were debunked or turned out to be open-source internet rumors. Given Steele’s own effort to leak intel in his dossier to the media before Election Day, the public deserves to see the FBI’s final analysis of his credibility. A document I reviewed recently showed the FBI described Steele’s information as only “minimally corroborated” and the bureau’s confidence in him as “medium.”

8.)   The Steele interview. It has been reported, and confirmed, that the DOJ’s inspector general (IG) interviewed the former British intelligence operative for as long as 16 hours about his contacts with the FBI while working with Clinton’s opposition research firm, Fusion GPS. It is clear from documents already forced into the public view by lawsuits that Steele admitted in the fall of 2016 that he was desperate to defeat Trump, had a political deadline to make his dirt public, was working for the DNC/Clinton campaign and was leaking to the news media. If he told that to the FBI and it wasn’t disclosed to the FISA court, there could be serious repercussions.

9.)   The redacted sections of the third FISA renewal application. This was the last of four FISA warrants targeting the Trump campaign; it was renewed in June 2017 after special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe had started, and signed by then-Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. It is the one FISA application that House Republicans have repeatedly asked to be released, and I’m told the big reveal in the currently redacted sections of the application is that it contained both misleading information and evidence of intrusive tactics used by the U.S. government to infiltrate Trump’s orbit.

10.)  Records of allies’ assistance. Multiple sources have said a handful of U.S. allies overseas – possibly Great Britain, Australia and Italy – were asked to assist FBI efforts to check on Trump connections to Russia. Members of Congress have searched recently for some key contact documents with British intelligence. My sources say these documents might help explain Attorney General Bill Barr’s recent comments that “the use of foreign intelligence capabilities and counterintelligence capabilities against an American political campaign, to me, is unprecedented and it’s a serious red line that’s been crossed.”

These documents, when declassified, would show more completely how a routine counterintelligence probe was hijacked to turn the most awesome spy powers in America against a presidential nominee in what was essentially a political dirty trick orchestrated by Democrats.

end

The modus operandi of Epstein in his sex trafficking ring

(zerohedge)

Epstein Used Network Of Shell Companies And Associates For Sex-Trafficking Ring, Lawsuits Claim

Jeffrey Epstein used his tangled web of shell companies as a “brazen and powerful organization” to operate a sex-trafficking ring, according to three new civil lawsuits filed against his $578 million estate.

The new litigation was filed against the estate, its executors and the shell companies themselves, asking for unspecified damages for medical and psychological expenses, trauma, humiliation and other injuries suffered as recently as 2017, according to Bloomberg.

Among the companies named in all three suits are one that owned Epstein’s Manhattan mansion until 2011his money-management firm, Financial Trust Co.; and HBRK Associates Inc., which allegedly helped arrange travel for Epstein’s accusers between New York and Florida. A Richard Kahn was listed as the registered agent for HBRK in New York state corporate filings in 2008.

Two of the complaints name as a defendant the company that once owned Little St. James, the smaller of Epstein’s private islands in the Caribbean. Little St. James was one of the locations from which Epstein ran a “complex commercial sex trafficking and abuse ring,” according to the lawsuits.

The defendants include the executors, Darren Indyke and Richard Kahn, lawyers who were directors for a nonprofit Epstein had in the U.S. Virgin Islands called Gratitude America. –Bloomberg

Two of the women, “Katlyn Doe” and “Lisa Doe” claim to have met Epstein when they were seventeen. The third, “Priscilla Doe” says she was 20. The three say Epstein used a “vast enterprise” of associates working “in concert and at his direction, for the purpose of harming teenage girls through sexual exploitation, abuse and trafficking. Notably, the new suits claim that all of this happened after his deal with federal prosecutors in Florida in 2007. 

Katlyn and Priscilla claim they were flown to Florida so that Epstein could continue to sexually abuse them while he was on work release from jail. Katlyn claims he promised to pay for medical treatment, while he manipulated Lisa and Priscilla by promising to advance their dance careers – which he did not do, according to the lawsuits.

Epstein’s complicit associates include “chefs, butlers, receptionists, schedulers, secretaries, flight attendants, pilots, housekeepers, maids, sex recruiters, drivers and other staff members,” according to the suits.

Katlyn also alleges that in 2013 Epstein paid her $10,000 to marry an associate in order for him to become a legal resident of the United States – stiffing her on another $10,000 she says she was promised upon their divorce. She says she agreed to come to Florida after Epstein promised her a job at his office, and that HRBK coordinated her travel. She added that Epstein forced her to “engage in sexual encounters” with him and another young female at the headquarters of his Florida Science Foundation.

According to University of Oregon law professor Susan Gary, Epstein’s death shouldn’t serve as an impediment to their civil claims.

They’re still in a good position,” said Gary, adding that the challenge “is proving as required by law that he injured them and they should get benefits for their injury.”

After Epstein served 13 months in a Palm Beach jail, he settled over two dozen lawsuits with accusers who say he lured them when they were teenagers to his mansion, where they were coerced into sex and paid to recruit others.

Three of those cases, filed by clients of Brad Edwards, settled for a total of $5.5 million. Edwards is the lawyer for the women who filed the complaints Tuesday in federal court in New York. The plaintiffs aren’t named because of the “sensitive sexual nature” of the cases, the suits say.

Late Tuesday, Edwards submitted arguments on behalf of VE, another client who last week sued Epstein’s estate and three of the same companies targeted by the latest suits, asking the court to allow her to proceed anonymously.

Epstein’s vast wealth and far reaching connections make it clear that retaliation could be employed against individuals pursuing claims against the estate” and could deter witnesses, according to the filing. VE’s anonymity will serve society as well, which “has an interest in eradicating the predatory practices of powerful men against vulnerable, susceptible women.” –Bloomberg

According to Katlyn Doe, Epstein would often remind her of his “extraordinary power to reward and punish.”

Meanwhile, plaintiff Lisa Doe says she met Epstein in 2002 when she was 17, when he told her he was “close personal friends with some of the most influential names in dance,” and would help her with her career if she taught a dance-based exercise class at the home of a wealthy New York man. Instead, Epstein forced her to engage in sexual encounters and derailed her career aspirations.

Lastly, Priscilla Doe says that an Epstein “recruiter” asked her if she wanted to give the financier a massage in his Manhattan mansion in 2006 when she was 20-years-old.

An associate of his taught her the “exact way” he liked to receive oral sex and Epstein “forced himself on her and took her virginity,” according to the complaint. While Epstein was receiving massages, the suit says, he took calls from four people, referred to in the suit as “Important Business Person” 1, 2, 3 and 4.

The plaintiff says she was forced to “engage in commercial sex” on each of more than 20 trips to the Virgin Islands between 2006 and 2012. –Bloomberg

According to the lawsuits, “Each of the employees and associates were paid through companies believed to have been funded by Jeffrey Epstein and, regardless of such funding, were disciples of Jeffrey Epstein, constantly informing plaintiff and other victims of Jeffrey Epstein’s power and ability to improve or destroy a victim’s life depending on her level of cooperation.”

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

rom Tuesday’s King Report: ESUs and stocks are ripe for a Turnaround Tuesday to the downside.  However, a tweet or headline at any moment can change the course of mighty rivers.  Any retreat should be modest to moderate because everyone wants to be long for Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

There was no positive impact news and no actual or verbal sovereign intervention on Tuesday.  So, ESUs and stocks retreated on Tuesday morning.

The news from Hong Kong remains forbidding.

Hong Kong Leader Carrie Lam Pledges New Effort at Dialogue over Protests

Hong Kong protesters rejected leader Carrie Lam’s attempt to meet one of their key demands, raising questions about whether a compromise can be reached even as both sides seek to lower tensions…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-20/hong-kong-s-lam-pledges-new-effort-at-dialogue-over-protests

Beijing won’t make trade concessions if US plays Hong Kong card, Chinese state media says

“Making a fuss about Hong Kong will not be helpful to economic and trade negotiations between China and the US,” the commentary said. “They would be naive in thinking China would make concessions if they played the Hong Kong…  https://sg.news.yahoo.com/beijing-won-t-trade-concessions-043440313.html

Europe produced some impact negative news on Tuesday.

@SkyNewsBreak: A Downing Street spokesperson says “we have been clear that we will never place infrastructure, checks or controls” at the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and thatthere is “no prospect of a deal” if the Irish backstop is not abolished

FT: Donald Tusk rejects Boris Johnson demand to scrap Irish backstop

European Council president says UK lacks ‘realistic alternatives’ to prevent hard border after Brexit

https://www.ft.com/content/d8cf9e72-c338-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9

WaPo: Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte set to resign after far-right party leader’s call for a no-confidence vote     https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italian-premier-addresses-parliament-as-no-confidence-vote-looms/2019/08/20/0275b9e4-c2b9-11e9-8bf7-cde2d9e09055_story.html

Home Depot is rallying [despite poor results on hope/hype that bad weather was the cause]

Same-store sales — a key gauge of a retailer’s performance — rose 3% in the second quarter, trailing the average 3.2% projection, according to Consensus Metrix. The company now sees 4% growth for the full year in that measure, down from a previous forecast for 5%. It also sees full-year revenue growth of 2.3%, down from about 3.3%. Earnings per share exceeded analysts’ average estimate…

     “It’s one of these situations where the report was no worse than feared,” Grom said. Growth improved every month — an indication that the problems were mostly weather related, he added…

https://bloom.bg/2z8VV4v

Traders bought the opening decline on Tuesday and created a bottom within 20 minutes of the NYSE open.  The usual suspects jammed ESUs 20 handles higher over the next 82 minutes.  But that was it.

ESUs and stocks then rolled over.  The post-European close rally and the Noon Balloon both aborted after modest ESU rallies.  When the afternoon arrived, selling increased.  Liquidation accelerated 8 minutes before the final hour commenced.  The selling continued into the close.

It was at the close that real mischief, AKA stock market manipulation, appeared.  Seconds before the NYSE close, the S&P 500 Index dipped below 2900.  Someone then pushed stocks higher to keep the S&P 500 Index from closing below 2900.

The sign of manipulation appeared immediately after the close as ESUs sank 4 handles in 3 minutes after the NYSE close.  After the close, Trump happened.

Trump confirms he’s considering a payroll tax cut amid mounting economic concerns

“Payroll tax is something that we think about, and a lot of people would like to see that, and that very much affects the workers of our country,” Trump said Tuesday…

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-confirms-hes-considering-a-payroll-tax-cut-amid-mounting-economic-concerns/2019/08/20/2c97e500-c37a-11e9-9986-1fb3e4397be4_story.html

@ABCPolitics: President Trump claims “we’re very far from a recession,” despite unrest on Wall Street.

“We’ve been talking about indexing for a very long time … we’re always looking at the capital gains taxpayroll tax,” he adds when asked about potential tax cuts… “And many people like indexing and it could be done very simply. It could be done directly by me.” [Executive order]   http://abcn.ws/31SuF6J

Also after the close, Fed’s Daly Says She Doesn’t See a U.S. Recession on the Horizon

“When I look at the data coming in, I see solid domestic momentum that points to a continued economic expansion… But considerable headwinds, like weaker global growth and trade uncertainties, have emerged – and they’re contributing to this fear we see in the markets that a downturn is right around the corner…”    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-20/fed-s-daly-says-she-doesn-t-see-a-u-s-recession-on-the-horizon

President Trump’s haters hope for a recession

Are the Trump haters trying to cause a recession in the US so the president won’t be re-elected?…

The quickest way to cause a recession is to kill the confidence of consumers… If the Trump haters in and outside the media can convince consumers that the next recession is right around the corner, the next recession just might be right around the corner…

https://nypost.com/2019/08/19/recession-is-at-the-top-of-trump-haters-wish-l

Gov’t Delivers 100,000 Cheap Visa-Workers to Disney, Hilton, Tourist Industry, for Summer Work

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/08/20/govt-delivers-100000-cheap-visa-workers-disney-hilton-tourist-industry-summer-work/

Today is settlement for August VIX options.  Ergo, there could be some serious ESU manipulation prior to the NYSE open – because “The final settlement value is calculated from actual opening prices of S&P 500 Index (SPX or SPX Weekly) options…” – CBOE

https://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/vx-cboe-volatility-index-vix-futures/settlement-information-for-vix-derivatives

If there is a scheme to game the NYSE open for the VIX settlement, the manipulation should impact early NYSE trading.  Soon thereafter, wiser guys could force a market readjustment to the illicit scheme.

Barring news or tweets, the session should be relatively quiet.  Traders will probably wait until Thursday to load up for Powell’s expected dovish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

ESUs opened -5.25 last night.  They are +8.00 at 21:00 ET.  Apparently, the manipulation for the VIX settlement is underway.  The yuan ref rate is 7.0433 (7.0468 exp.).

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2946; 100-day MA: 2909; 150-day MA: 2857; 200-day MA: 2800

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,608; 100-day MA: 26,306; 150-day MA: 26,014; 200-day MA: 25,607

S&P 500 Index support: 2910-13, 2900, 2890, 2875, 2860-64, 2850, 2837-39, 2830-32, 2822-25, 2810

Resistance: 2923-25, 2931, 2943-45, 2955, 2963, 2970, 2980, 2990, 3000-04, 3013, 3027-30

Expect economic data: July Existing Home Sales 5.4m; July 31 FOMC Minutes 14:00 ET

Expect earnings (retailer heavy again): LOW 2.01, TGT 1.62, JWN .75, LB

Breitbart’s @Doc_0: The dirty little secret of the 2020 election is that a lot of Dems and Dem-leaning independents agree with Trump on both pocketbook & social issues. Many of them severely dislike him personally and want a moderate Dem opponent who will give them Trump issues without Trump.

 

BBC Breakfast Show’s @iancollinsuk: One police officers killed; another attacked by machete; another run over and left for dead. There are 72 attacks on cops EVERY DAY [UK] – one every 20 minutes. How the hell did society seem to lose such respect for those who are here to protect us?

 

Facebook Bans “Women for Trump” Ads [Because they target women!]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-20/facebook-bans-women-trump-ads

 

Racism is not dead, but it is on life support — kept alive by politicians, race hustlers and people who get a sense of superiority by denouncing others as ‘racists.’” – Thomas Sowell

Well that is all for today

I will see you Thursday night.

 

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