AUGUST 26/GOLD UP 25 CENTS TO $1527.30 WITH SILVER THE STAR AGAIN UP 23 CENTS TO $17.66//OPTIONS EXPIRY TOMORROW WITH SILVER REFUSING TO GO DOWN//CHAOS REIGNS SUPREME IN HONG KONG FOR THE 12TH STRAIGHT WEEK/ISRAELS HITS IRANIAN INTERESTS INSIDE IRAQ AND LEBANON//

GOLD:$1527.30 UP $0.25(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $17.66 UP 23 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1528.40

 

silver:  $17.67

option trading silver and gold:

We are now entering options expiry week for the comex which ends , August 27.2019

OTC/ LBMA expires on Friday, the 30th.

 

On Thursday night when I got the preliminary and final efp numbers I knew something was up when they reported a massive queue jumping in gold of 503 contracts  or 50300 oz  (1.56 tonnes). On Friday night 896 contracts of jumping queue (2.786 tonnes). You never see this unless there are burning fires elsewhere.  Judging from the Swiss data showing massive imports of gold from Switzerland into England, you kind of know where the fires are located.
It sure looks like we are getting our short squeeze in silver. Tuesday is the final day before Comex options expiry so the day should be exciting to watch.

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 1200/2009

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,526.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/23/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/27/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 487
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 143
661 C JP MORGAN 307
661 H JP MORGAN 993
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
686 C INTL FCSTONE 48
737 C ADVANTAGE 9 163
880 H CITIGROUP 1853
905 C ADM 4
991 H CME 9
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 2,009 2,009
MONTH TO DATE: 8,402

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 2009 NOTICE(S) FOR 200,900 OZ (6.2488 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8402 NOTICES FOR 840200 OZ  (26.133 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1996 for   9,980,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,539 UP 236 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10,321 UP 186

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 3446 CONTRACTS FROM 235,647 UP TO 239,093… MOVING WITH THE 37 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT: 1853, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3342 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1853 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1853 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.265 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 37 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

9.980   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AS DEMAND WAS JUST TOO GREAT. ALSO SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAD STARTED BUT WAS OVERWHELMED WITH THE HIGH DEMAND FOR SILVER CONTRACTS.

 

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

33,605 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 33,605 CONTRACTS) OR 188.02 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1866 CONTRACTS OR 9.338 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  188.02 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 26.86% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1480.55   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3446, WITH THE 37 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1853 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.

 

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY  SIZED: 5309 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1853 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3446  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 37 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.43 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.195 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 171% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 9.980 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC, A NEW RECORD, AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 27,721 CONTRACTS, TO 626,134 ACCOMPANYING THE  $28.50 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING //FRIDAY// /

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW IN FULL SWING  ONLY FOR SILVER WITH SOME LIQUIDATION  ACCOMPLISHED IN THAT ENDEAVOUR TODAY…BUT DEMAND FOR CONTRACTS WAS JUST TOO GREAT… THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD  STOPS FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH BUT WILL START IN EARNEST ONCE WE ENTER THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER

 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 9652 CONTRACTS:

AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  9652 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 629,465,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC A NEW RECORD AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 37,384 CONTRACTS: 27,732 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9652 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 37,384 CONTRACTS OR 3,784,000 OZ OR 116.27 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $28.50 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD AN UNBELIEVABLE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 116.27  TONNES!!!!!!THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON . ON TOP OF THIS WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE MASSIVE JUMPING OF QUEUE WHICH TOOK PLACE IN THE GOLD COMEX AREA AGAIN . THIS IS THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW WE HAS WITNESSED THIS!!(BELOW)

.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 170,417 CONTRACTS OR 17,041,700 oz OR 530.06 TONNES (18 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9467 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 530.06 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 530.06/3550 x 100% TONNES =14.93% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4040.74  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 27,732 WITH THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($28.50)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9,652 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9,652 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC, A RECORD,  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 37,384 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9,652 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 27,732 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 116.27 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $28.50 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  8402 notice(s) filed upon for 840,200 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY:

 

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A 1.59 MILLION OZ DEPOSIT

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 3446 CONTRACTS from 235,647 UP TO 239,093 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 1853  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1853 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3446  CONTRACTS TO THE 1853 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 5309 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 26.545 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST AT 9.980 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 37 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1853 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33/86 POINTS OR 1.17%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 499.00 POINTS OR 1.91%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 449.87 POINTS OR 2.17%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.32%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1454 /Oil UP TO 54.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.72 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1454 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1556 TRADE TALKS STALL AGAIN// MORE TARIFFS//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY WELL PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Scary: Japan request USA marines deploy F 35’s on its largest warships as they are worried about an China incursion

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

i)Friday night:

Hong Kong chaos as the 12 straight weeks of protesting has caused an earnings crash

(zerohedge)

ii)Saturday:  

More reason for citizens to become furious and continue with their protests:  Now Hong Kong workers are fired for supporting the protests.

this is not good!

(zerohedge)

iii)Saturday:

Hong Kong riot police beat protesters who riot for the 12th straight week demanding democracy.  Citizens knock out “smart lampposts”
(zerohedge)

iv)The USA is continuing its verbal war against China’a aggressive behaviour in foreign waters. Saturday night seems the USA slam Cina’s escalating oil and gas interference in Vietnamese waters.

(zerohedge)

v)Late Sunday night

After Hong Kong police use water cannons on protesters, Beijing signals that it has the “responsibility to intervene”.  This would be a catastrophic event in Hong Kong which would break the HK dollar and send the Hang Sang into oblivion. Democracy as we know it will end.  Hong Kong is the jewel for Mainland China//they love the economics behind it but there must have political control.  They just do not know what they are getting into
(courtesy zerohedge)

vi)Monday morning:

Markets react to Trump’s version that we received 2 calls.  China denies and has no idea what Trump is talking about
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Sunday: Iran/Turkey

Showdown coming as our infamous Iranian tankers is now heading for a Turkish port instead of Southern Greece as previous reported. The tanker is collected by the Iranian Revolutionary guard and the USA government has threatened anybody who provides aid or facilities to the vessel

(zerohedge)

i b)Iran

Iran has announced that it has a “mystery buyer” who has purchased the 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil aboard the Adrian Darya.
(zerohedge)

ii)Sunday night: 

Turkey
fast 15% flash crash of the Turkish lira from 5.76 down to 6.4 lira to the dollar.  Although it rebounded expect another downfall in the lira tonight especially with news that the infamous Iranian oil tanker is headed for Turkey plus the huge downfall in the Chinese yuan.  Turkey can no longer see support for the lira coming from China.
(zerohedge)

II B)TURKEY

Turkey continues to affirm its claim on the oil and gas surrounding Cyprus.  This oil and gas was discovered by Israel and they told Cyprus that the discovery was proceeding onto their waters as well as Greece.  Turkey does not recognize the agreement for separation of Northern Cyprus with the rest of Cyprus signed in 1974.
(courtesy Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

iii)Iran/G7

Seems Macron is very naive..Iran wants an oil waiver resumption something that the uSA is not going to give as long as Iranians sponsor terrorism in Lebanon  through Hezbollah,  Gaza through Hamas as well as sending in intelligence into Syria. The uSA is not in any rush as Iran is basically bust.  We just saw them remove 4 zeros from their currency where one uSA dollar equals 122,500 riyals.
(zerohedge

iv)Israel/Lebanon

Israel invades Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in the last 24 hours.  The Lebanese President calls this a “declaration of War” but he refuses to deal with the paramilitary Hezbollah occupying the south

(zeorhedge)

v)Iraq/Israel

And now Iraqi officials who have strong ties to the Iran backed militia has declared that the Israeli strikes are a “declaration of war”.   That will fall on deaf ears.

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

a)The last 3 days events as discussed by Michael Every..have we reached our Minsky Moment..

(Michael Every/Rabobank)

b)Another sensational commentary from Tom Luongo.  He claims correctly that Trump has got it all wrong.  Actually the Fed is helping him against China by keeping rates high. You see, the real problem for the globe is a lack of dollars.  The higher rates causing yuan to leave China for dollars and that will bankrupt China

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Argentina

The IMF has a major decision to make; fork over another $5.6 billion tranche to an already bankrupt Argentina or suffer the consequences of a bankruptcy the moment Cristina Fernandez wins the next election

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Butler talks about a strong “entity” who converted 20,000 future contracts into real metal  (100 million oz). I wonder who that whale might be? A sovereign maybe? A sovereign of Eastern persuasion?

(Ted Butler/SilverDoctors/GATA)

ii)Turk again hints at a silver short squeeze

(Turk/Kingworldnews)

iii)My arch nemesis Jeff Christian  ( I argued against him at the Comex hearing March 2010) is at it again denying gold price suppression despite the huge number of criminal convictions

(Mike Gleason/Money Metals/GATA)

iv)Trump is using a powerful but obscure law for his emergency authority to make good on his tweeted order for USA businesses to cut ties in China and the trade war spirals out of control

(Zeke Miller/Associated Press/GATA)

v)Another convert..Gonigam now states that the gold and silver market have been rigged and it is not a conspiracy theory

(GATA/Agora)

vi)The Indian shadow banking sector is cracking as the country’s largest lenders have halted debt repayments on bonds issued by them. This has caused panic as farmers are unable to receive loans and as such gold is being used to obtain loans.

(zerohedge)

vii)For those of you who thought you could avoid tax by using cryptocurrencies, guess again  The IRS has just send out a new round of letter to crypto holders.  The IRS got the information from the exchanges

(Cohen/CoinTelegraph.com)

viii)Bill Holter interview with SGT and a public article

(Bill Holter)

ix)Australia’s gold production this year is on tap to hit 321 tonnes. It is the no 2 producer.  Russia is third and China had 400 tonnes is first.
(Lawrie Williams)

x)You know that the banking sector is in trouble when you see Bank of America recommending gold as a purchase. Their reasoning: central banks are losing control(zerohedge/Bank of America(

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Hard data durable goods disappoint as shipments slum the most in 3 years

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)An absolute joke..there was no call.  Trump just needed to juice the markets

(zerohedge)

b)Now Maine’s blueberry industry decimated by the trade war escalation

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC, A RECORD AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 27,732 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 626,134 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN  OF $28.50 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9652 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 9652   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9652 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 37,384 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9652 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 27,732 COMEX CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TRYING CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE TO NO AVAIL.. 

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  037,384 CONTRACTS OR 3 OZ OR 116.27 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 2222 CONTRACTS as we GAINED 835 contracts.  We had 63 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A WHOPPING 898 contracts or 89,800 ADDITIONAL oz of gold (2.8210 TONNES) that will stand for GOLD. delivery.  I am not sure if the queue jumping is of banker origin or some big longs willing to take on the comex.

 

The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 398 contracts DOWN TO 2797.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 2546 contracts UP to 50,165. The very large and important DECEMBER contract month saw its OI rise by 23,050 contracts up to 464,850.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 2009 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  200,900 OZ. (6.2488 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3446 CONTRACTS FROM 235,647 UP TO 239,093  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD SET AUGUST 22/ 244,196, CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 37 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.  WE HAD ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER// FRIDAY WHICH FAILED MISERABLY. THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF OUR SPREADERS ALSO COMMENCED.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 0 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED NIL CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 12,991 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 59,232 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 123 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 431.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 15,509 CONTRACTS UP TO 141,657. WE HAVE 4 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE AUGUST 30/2019

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 419,257  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  501,902  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 26/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil; oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2009 notice(s)
 200900 OZ
(6.2488 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
213 contracts
(21,300 oz)
0.6625 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8402 notices
840200 OZ
26.133 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

Generally very little gold arrives from outside/  TODAY: no amount  arrived

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

 we had 1 adjustment today
i) Out of Delaware:  14,984.138 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2009 contract(s) of which 993 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 307 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8402) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (2222 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (2009 x 100 oz per contract) equals 861,500 OZ OR 26.79 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (8402 x 100 oz)  + (2222)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2009 x 100 oz )which equals 861,500 oz standing OR 26.79 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We GAINED 898  contracts or an additional 89,800 oz (A WHOPPING 2.793 TONNES) THAT will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. NOT SURE IF THESE GUYS ARE BANKER RELATED OR IS SOMEBODY WILLING TO TAKE ON THE COMEX IN AN ATTEMPT TO FIND BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL METAL.

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 21.130 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 26.79  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING//

I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE COMEX INVENTORY AT THE REGISTERED LEVEL IS OF THE KILOBAR VARIETY WHICH I BELIEVE IS A PHONY.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  679,345.951 oz or  21.130 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,039,651.685 oz 250.06 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 34 MONTHS 109 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 26 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,221,159.270 oz
CNT
DELAWARE
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
14,478.852 oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1996 contracts

9,880,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

 

 

ii) Into Delaware: 14,478.852  OZ

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1134,863.019  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  620,000.320 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 600,206.450 oz

iii) Out of Delaware:  952.000 oz ??

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 1,221,159.270  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

total dealer silver:  92.892 million

total dealer + customer silver:  311.903 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1996 x 5,000 oz = 9,980,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (0) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1996 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (0)- number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 9,980,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL  STAND AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  162,996 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 169,787 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 169,787 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 848 million  OZ 121.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..ABSOLUTELY CRIMINAL!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.40% ((AUGUST 26/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.17% to NAV (AUGUST 26/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.40%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.23 TRADING 14.78/DISCOUNT 2.93

 

 

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

AUGUST 26/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 859.83 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 651 TRADING DAYS: 75.55 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 551- TRADING DAYS: A NET 91.10 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/2019:

 

 

Inventory 385.440 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.01/ and libor 6 month duration 2.08

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .07

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.89%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.03

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.14

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Butler talks about a strong “entity” who converted 20,000 future contracts into real metal  (100 million oz). I wonder who that whale might be? A sovereign maybe? A sovereign of Eastern persuasion?

(Ted Butler/SilverDoctors/GATA)

In Silver Doctors interview, Ted Butler notes latest JPM confession and ‘whale’ going long

 Section: 

11p ET Friday, August 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In an interview today with James Anderson for Silver Doctors, silver market analyst Ted Butler discusses the confession to gold and silver market manipulation by a second trader for JPMorganChase, noting that both traders say they were trained in “spoofing” by their superiors and that their superiors knew of and approved their market manipulation.

… 

Butler also discusses what appears to have been the recent conversion of 20,000 silver futures contracts to real metal by a major entity — a “whale” — in the market.

Butler concludes that silver remains grotesquely underpriced but that this seems to be about to change.

The interview is 39 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XcuxaCOqwI&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Turk again hints at a silver short squeeze

(Turk/Kingworldnews)

Wild events, options expiration hint at short squeeze in silver, Turk tells KWN

 Section: 

10:34a ET Saturday, August 24, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Wild events internationally and futures option expiration next week raise the possibility of a short squeeze in silver next week, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk told King World News yesterday.

Repeated “flag” patterns in the silver price chart are indicating a bull market, Turk says. He adds that he has never seen monetary metals mining shares as undervalued as they are now.

… 

The likelihood of a long-lasting bull trend in the monetary metals is growing, Turk says.

He adds that negative interest rates on cash can exceed storage fees on gold and silver, making it more sensible to hold the monetary metals than cash.

The interview is 17 minutes long and can be heard at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-8-24-2019/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

My arch nemesis Jeff Christian  ( I argued against him at the Comex hearing March 2010) is at it again denying gold price suppression despite the huge number of criminal convictions

(Mike Gleason/Money Metals/GATA)

Last of the gold price suppression deniers defends his client central banks

 Section: 

11:12a ET Saturday, August 24, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

While most market analysts who have denied central bank and government intervention against gold have long since gone silent on the issue, Managing Partner Jeff Christian of metals consultancy CPM Group continues to disparage such complaints as “conspiracy theory.”

In an interview yesterday with Money Metals Exchange’s Mike Gleason, Christian tries to reduce the issue to what he considers ordinary and small-time market manipulation by individual traders.

… 

We don’t see grand conspiracies and we see a tremendous amount of evidence that these grand conspiracies do not exist,” Christian says.

That is, Christian doesn’t see the monthly interventions of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market on behalf of its central bank members, interventions confirmed by the bank’s own monthly statements of account.

He doesn’t see the “central bank incentive program” of trading discounts extended by CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, to governments and central banks for their surreptitious trading of all major futures contracts, including gold and silver.

He doesn’t see the refusal of the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve to answer U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney’s questions about which markets they are secretly trading in and why.

He doesn’t see the closed meetings regularly held by the major international financial organizations, from the BIS to the International Monetary Fund to the G-10 Gold and Foreign Exchange Committee, wherein intervention policy is formulated and implemented in secret — the very definition of “conspiracy.”

Christian disparages “the guys who make their living marketing conspiracy theories,” but fails to acknowledge that his company is a consultant to central banks and might lose some business if it inquired too much about what they are doing in secret.

Of course far better livings are made by shilling for central banks and governments than by investigating and criticizing them.

Asked if central banks have the ability to suppress monetary metals prices, Christian replies: “I don’t know if they have the ability, but I don’t think they have the desire.” He minimizes gold’s place in the world financial system, calling the monetary metal “a meaningless moniker” and “a footnote.” But then why would central banks bother consulting with CPM Group in the first place? And why would so many central banks lately have been announcing gold acquisitions?

This is what is left of those who deny that central banks intervene against gold. It’s posted at the Money Metals Exchange site here:

https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2019/08/23/higher-forecasting-for-g…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Trump is using a powerful but obscure law for his emergency authority to make good on his tweeted order for USA businesses to cut ties in China and the trade war spirals out of control

(Zeke Miller/Associated Press/GATA)

Powerful, obscure law is basis for Trump ‘order’ on trade

 Section: 

By Zeke Miller
Associated Press
Saturday, August 24, 2019

BIARRITZ, France — President Donald Trump is threatening to use the emergency authority granted by a powerful but obscure federal law to make good on his tweeted “order” to U.S. businesses to cut ties in China amid a spiraling trade war between the two nations.

China’s announcement Friday that it was raising tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. imports sent Trump into a rage and White House aides scrambling for a response.

… 

Trump fired off on Twitter, declaring American companies “are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China.” He later clarified that he was threatening to make use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in the trade war, raising questions about the wisdom and propriety of making the 1977 act, which has been used to target rogue regimes, terrorists, and drug traffickers, the newest weapon in the clash between the world’s largest economies.

It would mark the latest grasp of authority by Trump, who has claimed widespread powers not sought by his predecessors despite his own past criticism of their use of executive powers.

“For all of the fake news reporters that don’t have a clue as to what the law is relative to presidential powers, China, etc., try looking at the Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977,” Trump tweeted late Friday. “Case closed!” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://apnews.com/be18b8619cde4658a418dda4f416968a

* * *

end

Another convert..Gonigam now states that the gold and silver market have been rigged and it is not a conspiracy theory

(GATA/Agora)

Dave Gonigam: How I discovered that gold and silver market rigging was real, not mere ‘conspiracy theory’

 Section: 

9:31a ET Sunday, August 25, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

This week brought another public conversion to what used to be the tinfoil-hat school of looking at the monetary metals markets — Agora Financial editor Dave Gonigam.

In his “5 Min. Forecast” on Thursday, Gonigam wrote that complaints of gold market manipulation were “once fringe” but are “now nearly mainstream,” and he cites developments that helped change his mind.

… 

Gonigam credits geo-political analyst, fund manager, and author Jim Rickards for bringing him around on the manipulation issue. Indeed, nobody has summarized the purposes and mechanisms of gold price suppression better than Rickards did in his book “The New Case for Gold,” which Rickards kindly allowed GATA to excerpt last year here:

http://www.gata.org/node/18235

Gonigam also cites the “deathbed” interview given in April by the former member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Bart Chilton, to Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics, in which Chilton acknowledged manipulation of the silver market and JPMorganChase’s heavy involvement with it.

Gonigam notes the endorsement of GATA’s work given in May this year by fund manager Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, who wrote to his investors: “Gold price suppression (‘fixing,’ ‘rigging,’ ‘manipulating,’ or however else you want to think about it) is not just a conspiracy theory. It’s a well-documented phenomenon, with real actors and real ramifications. The best people to speak to about this subject are the folks at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.”

Not as persuasive is Gonigam’s approving quotation of a silly remark by newsletter writer Marc Faber, who says that people complaining about the manipulation of gold and silver prices should be happy about it instead because it gives them a chance to buy the metals at a discount. It’s as if Faber never heard that time is money. For what good is the discount to people who recognized and acted on suppression of metals prices years ago but died before it was brought to an end? GATA knows many such people who deserved better than Faber’s condoning of market rigging. And how many more years of price suppression should investors be grateful for? While GATA is doing what it can, of course no one can be sure that he’ll live to see free markets restored to the monetary metals.

Every day that market rigging continues is a profound injustice, not a boon.

But Gonigam’s commentary this week will hasten the liberation of the markets. It’s headlined “Deathbed Confession (Precious Metals)” and it’s posted at Agora Financial here:

https://agorafinancial.com/2019/08/22/deathbed-confession-precious-metal…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

The Indian shadow banking sector is cracking as the country’s largest lenders have halted debt repayments on bonds issued by them. This has caused panic as farmers are unable to receive loans and as such gold is being used to obtain loans.

(zerohedge)

Indian Gold-Loan Volume Explodes Amid Banking Sector Credit Crisis

India’s $42 billion shadow-banking system has been cracking since the country’s largest infrastructure lenders halted debt repayments in 2018.

Confidence in these banks has since tumbled, with the latest fears resurfacing in June when a primary mortgage lender delayed bond interest payments, indicting credit markets are freezing across the country.

The situation has led to a rapid rise in borrowing costs, forcing non-bank financial companies (NBFC) to tighten lending practices. This has stressed out Indian consumers, who are desperate for loans, now willing to pledge and or even sell their gold for lines of credit.

Reuters interviewed Indian farmer Babasaheb Mandlik, who was refused a farm loan from a major state-run lender; he was forced to pawn his wife’s gold jewelry as collateral so that he could use the funds to manage his 8-acre cotton farm in western India.

“Pawning the jewelry was a difficult decision as my wife likes to wear it at festivals and weddings,” 50-year-old Mandlik told Reuters.

“I convinced her that we didn’t have any other option.”

Mandlik isn’t the only one. Pawning or selling gold for bank loans has been an increasing trend amid a severe credit crunch and an economic slowdown that began last summer.

Several lenders told Reuters that demand for loans collateralized by gold is unprecedented at the moment, it‘s the only way banks in some parts of the country will give out money to people.

The credit crunch, which has prompted some lenders to impose restrictions as risks and borrowing costs rise, has been accelerated by record gold prices.

Domestic gold prices have jumped by 25% this calendar year, hitting a record high of 38,765 rupees ($543) per 10 grams earlier this month.

“As a lot of NBFCs have become cautious of giving unsecured or even secured loans, we are seeing more customers opting for gold loans instead,” said Sumit Bali, chief executive officer of IIFL Finance.

“One can obtain a gold loan and walk out of the branch in just thirty minutes.”

IIFL’s gold loan portfolio stood at 65.83 billion rupees ($922 million) at the end 2Q19, up 46% YoY.

Most of the pawning or selling gold for loans are from farmers and small business owners.

Muthoot Finance, a top shadow bank in the country, said its gold loans rose 6.6% between April 1 and July 24 this year to 358 billion rupees ($5,006,117,702).

“Pledging gold is becoming more lucrative with rising prices. We have seen healthy demand for gold loans in the last few months,” said George Muthoot, director at Muthoot Fincorp, which has 2.98 million customers.

Ashutosh Khajuria, the chief financial officer of Federal Bank Ltd., a private lender located in South India, said it’s gold loan portfolio jumped to record levels of around 80 billion rupees ($1,118,685,520.00) and is expected to expand as the Indian credit crisis and economic slowdown gains momentum into 2020.

end

For those of you who thought you could avoid tax by using cryptocurrencies, guess again  The IRS has just send out a new round of letter to crypto holders.  The IRS got the information from the exchanges

(Cohen/CoinTelegraph.com)

Internal Revenue Service Sends New Round Of Letters To Crypto Holders

Authored by Or Lokay Cohen via CoinTelegraph.com,

Last week, the United States Internal Revenue Service sent another round of letters to crypto traders called CP2000. These notices were sent to traders of some crypto exchanges due to inconsistencies found in their tax reports.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Using the information provided by third-party systems — such as crypto exchanges and payment systems — the IRS has been able to determine the amounts traders owe and included the amounts in dollars in the notices. Individuals who have received these notices are required to pay within 30 days, starting on the delivery date indicated in the letter.

If you think the exchange — on which you traded — provided your details to the bureau, you are probably right, but do not hold it against the exchanges. The regulation stipulates that all broker and barter exchange services are required by law to annually report trader activity on a 1099-B form, send it directly to the IRS and send a copy to the recipient.

In addition, transaction payment cards and third-party network transactions are also required to report on Form 1099-K, send it directly to the IRS and send a copy to the payee.

The IRS has not yet published specific guidelines for crypto exchanges. In fiat stocks, every broker must submit 1099-B to the IRS and send a copy to the trader. In crypto, the IRS still didn’t publish clarification whether exchanges should provide 1099-K or 1099-B.

Exchanges can benefit from the uncertain situation to provide 1099-K — like Coinbase Proand Gemini — but some do not provide any forms, such as Kraken and Bittrex. Meanwhile, the exchange must provide the users with the 1099-K copy by the end of every January, so they will be available to use it in their capital gains report. The users, at the same time, don’t submit the IRS their copy of 1099-K, as they only use this form to calculate and report on their capital gains or loss report.

Similarly, earlier this month, the United Kingdom’s tax, payments and customs authority, Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, has reportedly requested that digital currency exchanges provide it with information about traders’ names and transactions, aiming to identify cases of tax evasion.

In the U.S., data gathered from these exchanges is collected by the IRS and compared to every trader’s 1099-K report. If the reports do not match the data provided by the exchanges, the IRS will send the CP2000 notice to traders. The notice includes the amount every trader is expected to pay within 30 calendar days.

What’s more, the notice generally includes interest accrued, which is calculated from the due date of the return to 30 days from the date on the notice. This Interest continues to mount until the amount is paid in full, or the IRS agrees to an alternate amount. It means that interest began on the due date — on the day that you were supposed to report this for the first time. If you should, for example, have included this capital gains on your 2017 report, the interest will start on April 2018 — the last day you should have reported this gain. And it’s calculated until the reply date on the CP2000 notice.

Those who received the CP2000 letter have two options:

  1. If the amount proposed is correct:

Complete the response form, sign it and mail it to the IRS along with the tax payment.

  1. If the amount proposed is incorrect:

Complete the response form and return it to the IRS along with a signed statement outlining why you are in disagreement with the amount listed. It is important to include any supporting documentation to your claims.

It is highly recommended to provide a supporting calculation that is comprehensive and includes all wallet activities and transactions carried out on all exchanges in order to have a complete and accurate report as required by the IRS.

You do not need to file an amended return Form 1040X, but if you choose to do so, you should write “CP2000” on top of it.

It is important to understand that 1099-K reports for individuals trading crypto can be inaccurate in some cases, and does not include the cost basis, which is crucial for crypto trading calculations.

1099-K only asks for the gross amount of the activity. In crypto reports, you need to know how much it costs you (how much you paid when you bought it) and not only how much you got when you exchanged it. You pay capital gains tax on the profit between the buy amount to the exchange (to fiat or another crypto) amount.

The price you pay for it is called “cost basis.” Without it you will not have an accurate report on crypto. 1099-K forms don’t ask this information, only 1099-b forms do.

Therefore, crypto activity must be fully calculated and compared to the previous tax filing before replying to the IRS notice.

end

Bill Holter interview with SGT and a public article

(Bill Holter)

Bill Holter

11:59 AM (1 minute ago)

to me
Bill Holter latest commentary courtesy of SGT and Bill Holter
end

The Miles Franklin Newsletter

Bill Holter-The Holter Report

Infinity is here!

Jim Sinclair coined the phrase “QE to infinity” back in 2009. Few at the time really understood what he meant but then came QE 2, Twist, and QE 3. The premise was that the Fed (central banks in general) could never really tighten credit or monetary conditions in the future without imploding financial markets and ultimately the real economy. Now that the tightening cycle has been hastily aborted (for exactly the reasons Jim originally laid out), the world is right back to where it left off with QE 3 …QE to infinity is already here!

As it stands now, every central bank on the planet is in “easing mode”. The easing has already brought forth something that 20 years ago was unthinkable …negative interest rates. I have written several past articles on the topic of negative interest rates, they are archived for your review. The world currently ex US has seen sovereign bond yields average drop below zero for the first time ever https://www.zerohedge.com

It seems as if this is only the beginning!

I say only the beginning because it is clear the doubling down efforts by central banks has not worked. The global real economy is again sputtering even with central bank’s life support efforts. Liquidity is again quite tight which should not be the case while central banks bid for credit, but why? Even though central banks have flooded auctions with bids, the real economy is not generating the necessary cash flows needed. Tariffs and trade wars have arisen for the simple reason the “economic pie” is no longer expanding and in order to service the now gargantuan debt requires each player to have a larger slice of the stagnant (shrinking?) pie. China’s retaliation today is just a small reminder of such.

Now that the fallacy of monetary policy can cure all is discredited, what’s next? The winds of fiscal policy deficit spending have suddenly begin to blow because “zero” has been breached! No matter how big and important sounding the words are to describe and cheerlead negative interest rate policy …everybody knows. Everybody knows that everybody truly knows negative rates are a complete joke and in fact a perfect illustration that the currencies themselves have no value. It is by no coincidence gold is trading at all time highs in no less than 73 major currencies. It will not be long before “73” will be replaced with “ALL” currencies!

So fiscal stimulus is next? There are a few pesky questions without valid answers that allow “infinity” to enter the equation. First, sovereign balance sheets were not exactly pristine back in 2008 but they are disasters now. 100%+++ debt to GDP ratios litter the globe now. 20 years ago, 100% debt to GDP was the entry portal to banana republic status. Today, 100% is considered “clean”? Hardly!

The real rub is this, who exactly will purchase the debt offered by sovereign treasuries? Let’s look at the US. The US Treasury is already running $ trillion annual deficits, fiscal stimulus will only increase this number and probably substantially! Will China fund our deficit as they had since 2008? Does Japan even have the ability? Does anyone on the planet have the ability to fund US deficits …not to mention all the other sovereigns coming to market? The answer of course is no, the only entities with the ability to fund the coming credit issuance are the various central banks. In a word …MONETIZATION! Not just behind the back monetization, what comes is in your face monetization that cannot nor will be hidden. Even the common man will understand central banks are creating new currency out of thin air and thus diluting (to zero) already issued currency.

QE to infinity is no joke. It is very real and it is already here and just getting started. Think about how much credit issuance will be needed to backstop existing debt, not to mention the cesspool of over $1 quadrillion worth of derivatives? “Infinity” is an unfathomable number but the best way to understand it is to look at and define/understand its opposite. The opposite of infinity is “0”. Most everyone knows and can understand “zero” as a concept. In the real world, infinity is not what people will understand. What they will understand is the value of their fiat currencies approaching and eventually reaching zero value or purchasing power.

I will leave you with something to think about. Societies are based on currencies used to perform business transactions. Currencies are also the base for savings and pension arrangements. Many things financial can and have been swept under the rug for many years. Failing currencies cannot be hidden because the common man uses them every day. The common man will immediately see and feel if his currency is failing. How can central banks monetize insolvent treasury debt without destroying the issued currency? And what does that mean for all things denominated and saved in said currency?

The end of the monetary fiat road is not nigh folks …it is already here! I have tried to illustrate and explain over the years how all monetary roads lead to gold. It looks like “liability capital” will all now merge in to a super highway leading directly to gold and silver …where no liability exists!

This article was originally posted for subscribers at www.jsmineset.com

Standing watch,
Bill Holter

 end
Australia’s gold production this year is on tap to hit 321 tonnes. It is the no 2 producer.  Russia is third and China had 400 tonnes is first.
(Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Australian gold output hits new record

While the world’s No 1 gold producer, China, has been seeing a general decline in output and may well see it fall below 400 tonnes this year, the world’s No2 and 3 producers, Australia and Russia both seem to be increasing annual production of the yellow metal. The latest to come up with definitive figures is Australia which appears to have recorded a new gold production record for the calendar year ended June 30th according to Melbourne-based specialist consultancy, Surbiton Associates, which probably follows the Australian gold mining sector closer than any other organisation.

At this point it should be pointed out that down-under the fiscal year tends to run from July 1st – June 30th so the calendar year to end-June tends to provide the most accurate annual production figures available. According to Surbiton, Australian gold production hit an all-time record of 321 tonnes (10.3 million ounces) in the year to end-June this year. This compares with 310 tonnes in the previous corresponding period and 317 tonnes in calendar 2018. With Chinese production falling and Australian output rising, how long will it be before Australia becomes the world’s top gold producer – if Russia doesn’t get there first!

Surbiton goes on to note that Australian gold production totaled just under 82 tonnes in the June 2019 quarter making it the highest quarterly production level for more than 20 years. Gold output rose by four tonnes or almost five percent over the March 2019 quarter. With Australian dollar gold prices near record levels, the 2018/19 output is worth almost A$23 billion a year at current prices

Surbiton Director, Dr. Sandra Close added some specifics “The star performer for the year was Newcrest Mining’s underground Cadia operation in NSW which is a relatively low-grade deposit but is mined using large, low-cost block cave methods. Cadia produced over 910,000 ounces or some 28 tonnes of gold in 2018/19, well ahead of Newmont Goldcorp’s Boddington, Australia’s second largest mine, at around 690,000 ounces or 21 tonnes.”

Perhaps pointing to the likelihood of further rises in production, Dr. Close noted that the large Gruyere operation in Western Australia, owned primarily by Australia’s Gold Road Resources and South Africa’s Gold Fields has just joined the list of Australian gold producers. Gold Fields has noted that it has just divested itself of its 9.9% stake in Gold Road as part of its debt reduction scheme, but retains its holding in the mine itself. Gruyere, which cost some A$620 million, will produce around eight tonnes of gold a year when in full production.

“Higher production is also expected from Royal Nickel’s operations at Beta Hunt and its newly acquired Higginsville plant in Western Australia, while Kirkland Lake’s Fosterville mine in Victoria continues to build up output to around 600,000 ounces of gold in 2019,” Dr Close said. Fosterville has just reported an extraordinarily high grade, averaging 39.9 g/t gold for the June quarter, which is almost 1.3 ounces per tonne, more akin to the grades seen in some of the famous old mines over a century ago.

Dr. Close remains positive on the potential for further increases in Australian gold output but comments “Many things can happen, I can’t predict the future and am very conscious of the many factors and uncertainties that affect gold prices, exchange rates and production.”

26 Aug 2019

-END-

You know that the banking sector is in trouble when you see Bank of America recommending gold as a purchase. Their reasoning: central banks are losing control

(zerohedge/Bank of America(

“Pet Rock” Indeed: Bank of America Says Buy Gold As Central Banks Lose Control

What a difference a few years makes. Back in the summer of 2015, a WSJ op-ed writer,  who somehow was unaware of the past 6,000 years of human history, infamously and embarrassingly said “Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock.” Fast forward to today, when with every central bank once again rushing to debase its currency in what increasingly appears to be the final race to the debasement bottom, when even BOE head Mark Carney recommends that it is time to retire the dollar as the world’s reserve currencypet rock gold has emerged as the second best performing asset of the year… and at the rate it is going –4th in 2017, 3rd in 2018, 2nd in 2019 – gold will be the standout asset class of 2020.

Which naturally has sparked comparisons for gold’s performance in 2019 with 2008+, when gold exploded higher as the financial system nearly collapsed and central banks started injecting trillions in liquidity into the system to keep it afloat.

Are such comparisons appropriate?

As Bank of America writes in “anatomy of two gold bull markets”, in comparing the gold bull markets in 2008 and 2018, real rates remain key price drivers, while a critical difference in market dynamics – this time around  – is that central banks have been unable to reflate global economies and even as metrics like the value and proportion of negative yielding assets has been increasing, further easing is on the cards. Linked to that, Bank of America makes a stunning admissions: “the risk of quantitative failure, which was not a concern in 2008, makes gold an attractive asset.”

BofA summarizes the key gold drivers in 2008+ and 2018+ across three key metrics: real interest rates, USD and volatility.

Taking a step back, for those who have not been following the performance of gold in the past year, the yellow metal has been one of the best performing commodities over the past year, rallying by 31% since bottoming in August 2018, as whon in the first chart which highlights that recent price dynamics have to some extent mirrored those seen in 2008+; the data also shows that the current bull market is still young. Partially because of that, Bank of America notes that it has been frequently been asked how the current macro backdrop compares to dynamics 10 years ago.

So what sparked the tremendous 2008 rally which lasted for the next three years?

Looking back at the Great Financial Crisis, central banks reacted to the turmoil on financial markets by easing monetary policy through both traditional, but increasingly also non-traditional policy tools

Since gold is a non-yielding asset, the reduction in opportunity costs and uncertainty over where the global economy and markets were headed made the commodity an interesting investment.

This is shown in Chart 4, which suggests that sharp declines in US real rates post GFC were accompanied by steady increases in gold quotations. Yet, US rates then started to change direction in 2013, the year Fed chairman Ben Bernanke caused the taper tantrum announcing that the Fed would gradually reduce its bond purchases (Chart 5). This effectively put an end to gold increases.

After the gold price rally ended, and fell sharply in the wake of the taper tantrum, gold prices then remained subdued also because ongoing monetary policy support kept markets buoyant. This is shown in chart 6, which highlights that falling volatility was ultimately accompanied by lower gold quotations. Of course, this was also influenced by an acceleration of the US economy, which picked up post GFC and in 2015 printed some of the highest growth rates in a decade

Unfortunately, the central banks’ fairy tale did not last, and the “strong economic growth” came with a significant wrinkle: inflation remained well below the 2% target. The chart shows data for the US, but the lack of upward pressure on general price levels has been equally pronounced in other countries/ regions including Japan/ Europe.

Yet notwithstanding the ongoing lack of reflation, central banks around the world seem adamant that monetary easing will ultimately do the job – as in it didn’t work last time, but it will work this time, we promise – and hence expectations are for more stimulus. The side-effects of that are mirrored by Chart 8 and Chart 9: value and proportion of debt with negative yields has risen almost exponentially of late and this has been a powerful driver of the gold.

This, according to BofA commodity strategists, has various implications. Most notably, “ultra-easy monetary policies have led to distortions across various asset classes”; worse – and these are not our words, but of Bank of America – “it also stopped normal economic adjustment/ renewal mechanisms by for instance sustaining economic participants that would normally have gone out of business”, i.e. a record number of zombie corporations.

In addition, as everyone knows, debt levels have continued to increase, making it more difficult for central banks to normalize monetary policy as 2018 showed so vividly (and for Powell, painfully).

Which brings us to BofA’s conclusion: “We fear that this dynamic could ultimately lead to “quantitative failure”, under which markets refocus on those elevated liabilities and the lack of global growth, which would in all likelihood lead to a material increase in volatility.”

How does gold fall into this: “At the same time, and perhaps perversely, such a sell-off may prompt central banks to ease more aggressively, making gold an even more attractive asset to hold.”

In other words, as the world approaches the financial endgame and central banks are out of ammo beside just doing more of the same – that led the world to the current catastrophic state – gold will be the biggest beneficiary of the upcoming financial cataclysm. And, no, this is not some fringe blog predicting the apocalypse, this is the prediction of one the 4 largest US banks.

And with that we hand it over to the WSJ’s Jason Zweig for his “Per Rock” sequel…

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.1454/ GETTING WELL PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1556   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 33.86 POINTS OR 1.17%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 499.00 POINTS OR 1.91%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 449.87 POINTS OR 2.17%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.94/Euro FALLS TO 1.1118

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.26/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.60 and Brent: 59.72

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.66%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.32% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.14%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.98: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.95

3k Gold at $1529.00 silver at: 17.59   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.08

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.85 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9799 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0895 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.66%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.52% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.01%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8223..

Dazed Traders Wake Up To Stock Surge After Surreal Night

US traders went to bed last night with US equity futures down about 30 points from their Friday close. They woke up with the Emini as much as 40 points higher after what has been a surreal night full of apparent lies and panicked attempts to jawbone the market higher.

After a torrid start to the overnight session, which saw US futures tumble, the Chinese Yuan and 10Y Treasury yields all tumble, the safe haven Japanese yen soar and the Turkish lira briefly flash crash as Mrs Watanabe was again stopped out en masse…

 

the futures plunge was halted after China’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, had used an appearance in China to call for a de-escalation in tensions: “We are willing to solve the problem through consultation and cooperation with a calm attitude,” Liu said at the opening ceremony of 2019 Smart China Expo in Chongqing, Caixin reported on Monday. “We firmly oppose the escalation of the trade war,” he said, adding that it “is not conducive to China, the U.S. and the interests of people all over the world.”

Yet while Liu’s comments and a slightly stronger-than-anticipated yuan fixing suggested that traders don’t need to worry about an immediate retaliation from China after a tumultuous weekend – which included China’s flagship People’s Daily reporting that China would follow through with retaliatory measures against Trump’s “barbaric” tariffs and fight the trade war to the end, after the U.S. failed to keep its promises – it was clear that Beijing had no intention of losing face by being the first to make a phone call to Trump in hopes of ending the escalation.

And yet that’s precisely what happened when seconds before the European open, just before 3am ET, speaking at the G-7 Trump said that China wants “to make a deal,” referencing the Liu comments, and saying that Beijing is willing to resolve the ongoing trade war through “calm” negotiations with the United States. And just to make sure that he saves face, Trump also said that US officials received two “very productive” calls from the Chinese but declined to say whether he’d spoken directly to Xi. “They want to make a deal,” he said, adding that the U.S. would accept the Chinese invitation and return to the negotiations. “We’re going to start very shortly and negotiate and see what happens but I think we’re going to make a deal.”

The comment from Trump was enough to send futures surging over 30 points, rising above the Friday close and wiping out all the weekend angst…

… even though moments later, Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, said thathe wasn’t aware of any weekend U.S.-China phone calls, instead repeating China’s position that the trade war should be settled through negotiation, adding that China resolutely opposes to new US tariffs, and noting that US tariffs violates the accord struck between leaders in Osaka.

Then, just before 6am, China’s Global Times editor in chief Hu Xijin confirmed as much when he tweeted that “based on what he knows”, there were no phone calls between the US and China in recent days, suggesting that Trump may have simply hallucinated the 2 phone calls, which only took place in his head in hopes of keeping stocks from plunging.

Then, in a subsequent tweet, CNBC’s Eamon Javers said

Asked about the Chinese denials of new trade calls, despite President Trump’s statement, Trump implies the calls were with the vice premier of China. Sec. Mnuchin says: “There’s been communication going on.” President Trump chimes in: “at the highest level.” Pressed further about the calls with China that Trump said happened and the Chinese deny, Trump says he doesn’t want to talk about calls.

And the punchline: “Pressed further about the calls with China that Trump said happened and the Chinese deny, Trump says he doesn’t want to talk about calls.”

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

Asked about the Chinese denials of new trade calls, despite President Trump’s statement, Trump implies the calls were with the vice premier of China. Sec. Mnuchin says: “There’s been communication going on.” President Trump chimes in: “at the highest level.”

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

Pressed further about the calls with China that Trump said happened and the Chinese deny, Trump says he doesn’t want to talk about calls.

Whether Trump is lying or he thinks he is telling the truth, the rapid reversal in sentiment was enough to send Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index high enough to reverse an earlier loss. German blue chips including Henkel and Siemens have predicted weaker earnings, and the German government has signaled it’s open to fiscal stimulus if the current downturn turns into a severe recession.

Hoping to put lipstick on a pig, Jefferies strategists said that “the Dow lost over 623 points after President Trump’s Tweetstorm last Friday” adding that “by Sunday, President Trump had muddied the waters enough that the escalation may be dismissed as more noise. We also expect President Trump to jawbone the U.S. market higher in coming weeks with spillover effects for China. We continue to believe that all the drama is textbook ‘Art of the Deal’ negotiation style and that some sort of deal is more likely than not.”

Not everyone was as complacent: “The past 72 hours have left financial markets and the global economy in a far more vulnerable position,” said Eleanor Creagh, a strategist in Sydney at Saxo Capital Markets. “As a synchronized global slowdown takes effect and commodity prices roll over there is no reason that bond yields should be heading higher.”

In any case, Trump’s jawboning however came too late to save Asian equities, which dropped, led by communications and technology firms, as investors dumped risk assets and almost all markets in the region were down, with Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea leading declines. Japan’s Topix fell 1.8% to a seven-month low, as technology shares weighed heavily on the gauge, even though the U.S. and Japan agreed on a trade deal under which Tokyo would slash tariffs on American farm products, while delaying the threat of additional levies on Japanese auto exports. Over in China, the Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1.2%, driven by China Merchants Bank and Kweichow Moutai; sentiment improved somewhat as China Vice Premier Liu He said the country is willing to resolve the trade dispute with a calm attitude through dialogue, according to a Caixin report.

The yuan plunged to a fresh 11 year low: the offshore yuan weakened for an eighth straight session, dropping as much as 0.9% to the lowest intraday level since it was created in 2010.

With Britain’s market closed for a holiday, Treasuries reopened for trading in the U.S., paring their advance from Asia hours after the 10Y yield plunged to levels just shy of all time lows.

Meanwhile, the euro slumped continued, dropping after German business confidence extended its decline, falling to the weakest level in almost seven years, as a deepening manufacturing slump put Europe’s largest economy on the brink of recession. As a reminder, German GDP contracted in the second quarter and the Bundesbank warned it could shrink again in the third, sending the economy into its first technical recession in years.

Ifo’s business climate index fell to 94.3 in August, missing expectations of a 95.1 print, marking its fifth straight decline. It was weaker than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and gauges for expectations and current conditions also worsened.

“The situation is becoming increasingly dire,” Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The weakness which was focused on manufacturing is now spreading to other sectors.” Fuest said while industrial woes were originally concentrated in the automotive sector, they’re now reaching chemical and electrical engineering companies, as the manufacturing recession spreads and impacts increasingly more segments of the German economy. Service providers, especially those close to manufacturing such as logistics, are also feeling the pinch.

Elsewhere in FX, the USD/JPY was 0.5% higher at 105.85 after earlier dropping as much as 0.9% to 104.46, surpassing its January flash-crash low and sliding to the weakest since November 2016

As noted above, Treasury futures erased gains, after the 10-year yield fell 9bps to a more than three-year low at 1.44% in Asian trading; following a UK market holiday, the 10Y yield reopened at 1.51%.

Elsewhere, oil futures reversed their earlier declines from Friday, when China announced tariffs on U.S. oil for the first time.

 

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,878.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.09% to 371.02
  • MXAP down 1.5% to 150.17
  • MXAPJ down 1.4% to 484.92
  • Nikkei down 2.2% to 20,261.04
  • Topix down 1.6% to 1,478.03
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 25,680.33
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 2,863.57
  • Sensex up 2% to 37,447.20
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.3% to 6,440.05
  • Kospi down 1.6% to 1,916.31
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to -0.659%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1113
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.969%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.143%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $59.73/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,528.63
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 97.93

Top Overnight Headlines from Bloomberg

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said China has asked to re-start trade talks, hours after Beijing’s top negotiator publicly called for calm in response to a weekend of tit-for-tat tariff increases that sent global stocks plunging.
  • Gold will extend its winning ways as the U.S.-China standoff harms growth, risking a deeper slowdown and inviting more central-bank easing, according to UBS Group AG, which jacked up price forecasts with a prediction the precious metal may hit $1,600 within three months.
  • Global banks will this week start making their case on why they should be hired for what’s set to be the world’s biggest initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
  • UBS Global Wealth Management, which oversees more than $2.48 trillion in invested assets, has gone underweight on equities for the first time since the Eurozone crisis.
  • China’s top trade negotiator sought to lower tensions with the U.S. on Monday, saying the dispute between the world’s biggest economies should be resolved through measured dialogue
  • Two topWhite House officials said Trump has the authority to force American companies to leave China yet whether he invokes those powers is a another question
  • Trump acknowledged having second thoughts on escalating the trade war with China — only for his top spokeswoman to later say he meant he regretted not raising tariffs even more
  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Trump’s characterization of the Federal Reserve chief as an “enemy” on par with China’s leader was not meant to be taken literally
  • U.S. and Japan agreed in principle on a trade deal that would lower Tokyo’s tariffs on American beef, pork and other agricultural products, while delaying for now the threat of additional levies on Japanese auto exports to the U.S.
  • Tensions flared again in Hong Kong as an effort to form a peaceful human chain across the city culminated in police clashes that led to the firing of a weapon and the deployment of water cannons for the first time
  • Oil fell for a fourth day as an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war worsened an already shaky global demand outlook.
  • Current and former central bankers in Jackson Hole weren’t sure if Mark Carney’s idea for a virtual reserve currency is the answer, but they agree the dollar’s dominance is a problem

Asian equity markets tracked last Friday’s hefty losses on Wall Street and the continued weakness in US index futures at the reopen due to the escalation in the US-China trade war. ASX 200 (-1.2%) was led lower by underperformance in energy after the recent slump in oil and as the tech sector suffered the brunt of the latest trade aggressions, although gold miners bucked the trend after the precious metal surged on a safe-haven bid. Nikkei 225 (-2.2%) was heavily pressured with losses for exporters exacerbated by detrimental currency flows, while Hang Seng (-1.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.2%) slumped amid the trade concerns. Furthermore, Hong Kong was the worst performer amid further unrest as police were said to have beaten protesters and fired tear gas at an anti-surveillance rally over the weekend. Conversely, some of the losses were later pared after China’s Vice Premier Liu He stated that China is willing to resolve the dispute through calm negotiation and resolutely opposes escalation of the trade war, while India markets were intially underpinned after the Finance Minister recently announced several measures to support the economy including a withdrawal of capital gains tax enhanced surcharge and a INR 700bln bank recapitalization but then gradually deteriorated alongside the broad risk averse tone. Finally, 10yr JGBs were underpinned by a safe-haven bid and which coincided with upside in USTs as the US 10yr yield drop to a fresh 3-year low, with the BoJ also present in the market for 10yr+ and inflation indexed bonds.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Stocks Slump, Yuan Slides to 11-Year Low on Trade War
  • Bankers Head to Saudi Arabia to Compete for World’s Biggest IPO
  • Lira’s Crash Stuns Japan’s Mom-and-Pop Investors Again
  • Vietnam Prefers Its Mobile Networks to Be Free of Huawei

European equities are higher across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%] after US President Trump adopted a constructive tone regarding talks with China, whilst upside in the region was exacerbated after the US President stated the US and Germany have reached agreements on a number of subjects including trade, whilst also noting that US and France are getting close to a compromise on the digital tax issue. However, bourses came off highs after China Global Times editor noted that US and Chinese negotiators did not hold a phone call. Nonetheless, stocks are still supported by hopes of potential tariffs delays on China. Sectors are mixed with no clear winner/laggard. In terms of individual movers, UBS (-1.4%) shares fell after source reports that the bank reportedly explored an alliance with Deutsche Bank (+0.3%). Meanwhile, EssilorLuxoticca (+1.2%) shares spiked higher amid reports that ThirdPoint LLC have acquired a stake in the Co. Note, the FTSE is closed due to UK Summer Bank Holiday today.

Top European News

  • German Business Confidence Worsens as Recession Risks Increase
  • EssilorLuxottica Gains on Report Dan Loeb Is Building Stake
  • Weak Koruna Means Czech Rate Stability Through 2020 for Nidetzky

In FX, the major safe-havens – JPY/CHF/XAU – have retreated from lofty overnight peaks amidst comments from US President Trump at the G7 about conversations between Chinese and US officials following Friday’s reciprocal ramp up of tariffs that could bring the 2 sides back to the negotiating table. Even though China’s Foreign Ministry is unaware of any such calls, the markets are waiting for a statement from Trump with risk aversion receding in the run up. Hence, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Chf and Xau/Usd are extending their retracement to circa 106.00, 0.9785 and 1525/oz from just shy of 104.50, 0.9710 and 1555 respectively at one stage, to the benefit of the DXY that is rebounding towards 98.000 vs 97.618 at the low.

  • GBP/NZD/EUR/CAD – All on the defensive as the Greenback broadly recovers as noted above, but with Sterling also losing more of its Brexit positivity after UK PM Johnson cautioned that while prospects of reaching a deal have improved it remains a close call. Cable is back down around 1.2235 compared to 1.2285 at best, which coincided with a Fib retracement and resistance level ahead of 1.2300 as well, while Nzd/Usd remains toppy on approaches to 0.6400 and is still underperforming vs the AUD as the cross rebounds to 1.0600 and Aussie derives more traction from the latest Trump tweets within a 0.6765-0.6690 range. Note also, the Kiwi was not helped by NZ trade data showing a deficit as imports eclipsed exports in July. Elsewhere, the Euro is slipping back towards 1.1100 from 1.1165 with additional pressure, albeit incremental, coming via a dire German Ifo survey and the institute clarifying that the declines in business sentiment, current conditions and expectations did not take into account latest trade war escalations, though this is hardly surprising given the timing of the August poll. Last but not least, the Loonie is still pivoting 1.3300 and not gleaning any independent impetus from Canadian data, but US durable goods may impact as the series of often erratic.
  • EM – Some calm after the overnight risk-off storm, and especially for the Turkish Lira that suffered losses in keeping with a flash crash when Japanese margin accounts are said to have liquidated unprofitable long Try/Yen positions. Usd/Try is back down near 5.8200 compared to almost 6.3000 during Asian trade, but Usd/Cny remains relatively bid above 7.1500 irrespective of more conciliatory remarks from Trump who is not ruling out another roll-back of Chinese tariffs, and reports of big Chinese banks selling Dollars vs the Yuan.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are marginally in positive territory as the benchmarks ride on the current “risk on” wave in the markets after US President Trump took a constructive stance regarding US-Sino trade dialogue, ahead of an announcement on China later today; however recent comments from China’s Global Times Editor have paired back much of this positivity. WTI futures have just climbed above the 54.50/bbl level whilst its Brent counterpart eyes 60/bbl to the upside. In terms of geopolitics, Iranian Foreign minister Zarif unexpectedly attended side-line discussions at the G7 summit. It is unclear if the brief meeting between Macron and Zarif yielded any significant progress as US President Trump has since declined to comment on whether oil sanctions would be waived to have Iran return to the negotiating table; though they are going to discuss ballistic missiles and the duration of any subsequent agreement with Iran. Participants will today be eyeing trade developments as a catalyst, with US President Trump set to make an announcement later today, although no specific time was mentioned. In terms of US President Trump’s scheduling for the day, aside from the scheduled G7 pressers, he is to hold a press conference with French President Macron at 14:30BST. Elsewhere, gold prices have retreated after printing fresh 6-year highs on the back of trade developments, which saw the precious metal soar above 1550/oz early Asia-Pac trade. Meanwhile, copper prices saw a firm rebound after briefly breaching 2.5/lb to the downside. Finally, Dalian iron ore prices saw renewed downside amid President Trump’s announcement on Friday that tariffs on China (current and impending) will be raised by 5ppts.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0, prior 0
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.2%, prior 1.9%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.0%, prior 1.0%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.0%, prior 1.5%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -4, prior -6.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Before we turn to the week ahead, it’s worth recapping the trade war news which sent the S&P 500 to -2.58% loss yesterday. It’s now -5.89% off its recent all-time high. The index had dipped -0.73% in early trading after China announced new retaliatory tariffs on the US, but then clawed back into positive territory after Fed Chair Powell delivered a somewhat dovish speech at Jackson Hole. Equities then tumbled after President Trump’s tweets, where he promised to announce higher tariffs. After markets had closed, Trump did announce a tax rate hike on the already-tariffed Chinese goods, from 25% to 30%, and from 10% to 15% for the goods set to be tariffed this fall and winter.

In line with the seasonal trend, the calendar for next week is light. The biggest event could end up being the USTR’s decision regarding potential retaliation against France for its planned digital services tax. The comment period ends on Monday and the USTR could take action at any point thereafter. With the US-China trade war at a near-boiling point, there is a risk that the US opens another front, this time against Europe. Higher tariffs or tougher sanctions would obviously not be positive for near-term growth. There is also the risk of negative trade headlines at the G7 leaders’ summit, taking place today through Monday in France.

As for this week’s data calendar, there are a slew of lower-tier releases scheduled. In Europe, we’ll get Germany’s IFO survey on Monday, followed by the final print of GDP on Tuesday, where consensus expectations are for no change to the -0.1% qoq print. Then we’ll have German and Spanish CPI on Thursday, followed by the France, Italy, and the broader euro area on Friday The core measure for the broad euro area is forecast to firm slightly to 1.0% yoy, up 0.1pp from July, though the headline is expected to decline 0.1pp to 1.0%.

In the US, we’ll get durable and capital goods orders on Monday, which are expected to moderate a touch from June’s strong prints, followed by surveys from the Chicago and Dallas fed banks on Monday and from the Richmond fed on Tuesday. Those surveys are expected to firm a touch but remain in contractionary territory. The second reading of US GDP is due on Thursday, where the consensus is for a 0.1pp downward revision to 2.0% annualized growth. Finally, core PCE is due on Friday where our economists expect a print of 1.6%, in line with consensus. However, they do highlight that given the recent CPI and PPI data, there’s a risk that reading slides to 1.5%, well below the Fed’s 2% target.

Now back to the substance of the market-shaking events on Friday. First, China announced retaliatory tariffs of 5-10% on $75bn of imports from the US. The new measures will take effect either on 1 September or 15 December, depending on the product, mirroring the recently-announced US tariffs on China. That news sent S&P 500 futures down as much as -1.00%, and also sent the STOXX 600 instinctively down -0.74%.

Risk assets stabilized, however, after Chair Powell delivered somewhat dovish remarks, which also send bond yields a few basis points lower. He mentioned “significant risks” from slower global growth, trade policy uncertainty, and muted inflation. Powell went on to note that there is evidence that r* is lower than previously thought, and “a lower r* combined with low inflation means that interest rates will run, on average, significantly closer to their effective lower bound.” Those comments, plus his notable omission of the phrase “mid-cycle adjustment” sent the signal that the Fed is prepared to cut rates more aggressively than perhaps feared before. The initial market response was positive, with front-end yields falling and equities rallying.

However, by far the biggest market-moving event on Friday was President Trump’s tweets against China. First, he tweeted “who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?” followed by “our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year” and said that the US “would be far better off without” China. He then said that “our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China” and promised to respond to China’s tariffs. Those comments indicated that the trade war is unlikely to moderate in the near-term, which sent stocks and bond yields lower. The dollar, which has tended to rally on new tariff announcements, instead dropped against major partners. That could reflect fears that Trump will try to intervene to weaken the dollar directly, or it could be more positioning-driven.

As mentioned at the top, President Trump then announced a hike in rates across the suite of tariffs on China. The rates will rise from 25% to 30% on the list of around $250 billion of goods already being taxed, and from 10% to 15% for the list of around $300 billion of goods due to be tariffed from 1 September and 15 December. The overall size of President Trump’s tariffs is now up 0.6% of GDP, a fairly sizeable figure, especially when headline growth has been running around 2.0%.

Now to quickly recap markets in more detail, with the sharp drop in US equities on Friday undoubtedly the main talking point. The S&P 500 retreated -2.58% on Friday and -1.42% on the week. That marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline for the index. The NASDAQ and DOW saw similar moves, ending the week -1.83% and 0.99% (-3.00% and -2.37% Friday) respectively. The most trade-exposed sectors suffered most, with semiconductors retreated -2.22% (-4.36% Friday). Equities in Europe ended lower, but they had closed before the selling in the US accelerated. The STOXX 600 ended the week +0.47% (-0.78% Friday). HY cash spreads were -13.4bps tighter in the US (+15.3bps Friday) and -32.2 bps tighter in Europe (-6.2bps Friday).

Bonds mostly strengthened on the week, with ten-year treasury yields declining -2.9bps (-8.8bps Friday) and the 2y10y yield curve declining -7.4bps back to -0.02bps, just barely inverted (+0.1bp Friday). That curve measure did close at an inverted level earlier on Thursday however, its first sub-zero close since 2007. German bunds ended +1.0bps higher (-3.1bps Friday) while BTPs rallied -7.8bps (+1.0bp Friday). The dollar weakened -0.44% (-0.47% Friday) and the euro strengthened a similar amount, up +0.41% on the week (+0.51% Friday). The offshore Chinese yuan weakened -1.28% (-0.65% Friday) to 7.13, while the onshore yuan depreciated -0.74% (-0.17% Friday) to 7.0955, its weakest level since March 2008.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33/86 POINTS OR 1.17%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 499.00 POINTS OR 1.91%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 449.87 POINTS OR 2.17%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.32%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1454 /Oil UP TO 54.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.72 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1454 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1556 TRADE TALKS STALL AGAIN// MORE TARIFFS//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY WELL PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Scary: Japan request USA marines deploy F 35’s on its largest warships as they are worried about an China incursion

(zerohedge)

Japan Requests US Marines Deploy F-35s On Its Largest Warships Over China Incursion Fears

With the trade war with China turning hotter by the minute, any US troop deployment will be closely scrutinized. And when said deployment takes place close to China, alarm bells are bound to go off. Which is why a Friday report by USNI News that Tokyo officials have requested US Marines deploy F-35B fighters aboard Japan’s largest warships, is especially concerning as it puts in “kinetic” proximity Chinese, Japanese and now US troops.

According to the report, the Marines are now studying the feasibility of deploying short take-off vertical landing (STOVL) fighters from JS Izumo (DDH-183) and JS Kaga (DDH-184), Japan’s 24,000-ton big deck amphibious.

 

Helicopter carrier Kaga (DDH-184) on Aug. 27, 2015. Japan Marine United Photo

The warships were originally designed to field a fleet of anti-submarine warfare helicopters and respond to humanitarian aid and disaster relief. However, in December Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved a move to convert the two ships to field the STOVL F-35s in parallel with Japan’s purchase of 42 F-35Bs, reported The Diplomat.

 

In March, the Abe government asked then-Marine commandant Gen. Robert Neller if the U.S. would consider deploying Marine F-35Bs from Izumo and Kaga, The Asahi Shimbun reported this week. Prompted by the request, the Marines are now standing up groups to determine the technical feasibility of deploying U.S. F-35s from the two ships ahead of the Japanese Self-Defense Force F-35Bs being fielded.

While the two ships were built with an eye toward STOVL fighter operations, the U.S. has to make an independent determination if their F-35s can operate on Izumo and Kaga.

For example, U.S. Wasp-class big deck amphibious ships have to undergo deck strengthening and have new heat resistant flight deck treatments as the Marines replace their AV-8B Harriers with F-35Bs. It’s unclear what additional work would be needed to make the two ships ready for F-35s. The Marines currently have an F-35B squadron forward-deployed to Japan — the “Green Knights” of Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 121 that operate with the Wasp Amphibious Ready Group as part of the 31st Marine Expediniaory Unit.

The Marines have charted out a similar relationship with the U.K. Royal Navy to deploy a squadron of F-35Bs from the new HMS Queen Elizabeth (R08) carrier for its first deployment.

What is behind the odd Japanese request? In a word: China.

As USNI points out, for Japan, the move comes as the Chinese expand their regional naval ambitions.

“Chinese naval capabilities are growing rapidly in the region and I think this is an important step in strengthening the US-Japanese alliance. The Japanese acquisition of F-35Bs will enhance their maritime and aviation capabilities in the region and will further bolster interoperability between Japanese and U.S. military forces,” Eric Wertheim, author of U.S. Naval Institute’s Combat Fleets, told USNI News, Friday. “It will also help ease the burden on U.S. assets that are stretched thin responding to a long list of global crises.”

Understandably, Beijing has been extremely critical of Japan’s move to put fighters on the two warships saying that they could be considered an attack platform and a violation of Japan’s pacifist constitution (which PM Abe has been fighting tooth and nail to change).

The “carefully crafted” semantic answer was simple: the advanced stealth fighters will not be used for offensive purposes. In March, former director of national intelligence and former commander-in-chief of the United States Pacific Command Adm. Dennis Blair wrote that fielding F-35s on Izumo and Kaga could be considered a defensive move.

“The challenges to defending the Self-Defense fleet against aircraft armed with cruise missiles (or hypersonic glide weapons) underscore the need to upgrade the Izumo-class to operate the F-35B STOVL aircraft, as the average range of ship-killing missiles is in the hundreds of miles while the average range of defensive ship-launched antiaircraft and antimissile missiles is only about 100 miles,” wrote Blair and retired Capt. Christopher Rodeman in Proceedings.

“Armed with short-range anti-ship missiles, the F-35B would be very effective against ‘swarm tactics’ by patrol craft or maritime militia vessels. In an “island grab” scenario, the F-35B would be invaluable in establishing the local air control required for Japan’s new amphibious regiment to retake remote islands.”

We doubt that China will be dumb enough to fall for that particular explanation.

END

3 C CHINA

Friday night:

Hong Kong chaos as the 12 straight weeks of protesting has caused an earnings crash

(zerohedge)

 

Hong Kong Chaos Crashes Earnings, Worst Since 2008

Hong Kong stocks remain in a bear market (-20% from 1Q18 peak). They’re poised to record the worst corporate earnings since at least 2008 as the local political situation and trade war continue to deepen in 2H19.

Data compiled by Bloomberg show a 19% slump in operating income for Hong Kong stocks, would be the most significant contraction for Hang Seng Index companies since the financial meltdown in 2008.

Citywide protests, US-China trade war, and a weak yuan are mostly to blame for earnings losses.

Hong Kong’s political turmoil has rattled economic growth citywide, demand for bank loans to real estate loans to automobile loans to even utility gas usage has declined.

“The third quarter could be even worse given the local political situation and the trade war escalation,” said Jackson Wong, asset management director at Amber Hill Capital Ltd. “Potential downside surprises have not been fully reflected in share prices.”
*chart

Shangri-La Asia Ltd. fell 7.4% on Thursday and 2.7% on Friday after telling investors “political events” in Hong Kong depressed business at its hotels in the city, while a weaker yuan hurt revenues in mainland China.

Cathay Pacific, the leading airliner in Hong Kong, said political and social turmoil would have a “significant impact” on revenue for August.

The Hong Kong and China Gas Company has seen its shares dive nearly 10% since Tuesday after it said the local business environment is “full of challenges.”

Last week we reported on a hotel crisis that was developing. Here’s what we said:

“Hong Kong might not be able to avoid a financial crisis this year or next despite possible stimulus packages to shore up its faltering economy amid violent protests across the city. This has led to a rapid decline in tourism, forcing major hotel chains in the city to substantially slash room prices.”

The escalation of the trade war and at least 11 weeks of protest are also damaging the property market and retail sales.

HSBC Holdings Plc and BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd have seen their shares down significantly this month with the risk of capital flight building as there is no end in sight to the turmoil in Hong Kong.

And perhaps the global economy has opened up a cycle of vulnerability where a shock could trigger a worldwide recession. That shock could be the events playing out in Hong Kong at the moment. Investors should be on high alert for possible spillover effects into international markets in the coming quarters.

END

Saturday:  

More reason for citizens to become furious and continue with their protests:  Now Hong Kong workers are fired for supporting the protests.

this is not good!

(zerohedge)

‘This Is An Appalling Kowtow To Beijing’ – Hong Kong Workers Fired For Supporting Protests

They’re calling it the “white terror”.

Employees at Hong Kong-based companies, most notably the airline Cathay Pacific, are being fired or otherwise dismissed for supporting the anti-extradition bill (now pro-democracy) protests. On Friday the head of Cathay’s Flight Attendants’ Association said she was fired, without explanation, after managers saw what was apparently a pro-democracy Facebook post (the company later clarified that her firing had nothing to do with her role as a union leader).

According to Reuters, workers in other sectors, particularly in the financial industry, have said they are afraid to even talk about the protests among colleagues or in group chats for fear that they might be snitched out to management.

 

“Now the best way is to keep silent, because people could back-stab you for no obvious benefits,” said one individual who said he was reported to management. Reuters found one case where an individual received a call from Chinese authorities after posting pro-protest comments on Facebook.

One Hong Kong-based executive compared the current atmosphere to “the Cultural Revolution.”

“It feels like we’re back to the era of Cultural Revolution,” said the executive of a large corporate, referring to the decade-long campaign unleashed by Mao Zedong on China in 1966, which encouraged people to inform on friends, colleagues and family members who did not follow the Communist Party line.

One pro-Beijing lawmaker in HK said in Hong Kong, politics and business are inseparable.

“The Cathay incident shows that when doing business in Hong Kong, politics and business are inseparable…it’s quite an alarming message,” said a senior pro-Beijing politician.

Speaking about the resignation of former Cathay Pacific CEO Rupert Hogg, one activist investor questioned whether every CEO of every HK-traded company should resign, according to Bloomberg.

“This is the most appalling kowtow to Peking,” David Webb, a Hong Kong activist investor, wrote on his blog just hours after Chinese state broadcaster, CCTV, broke the news of Hogg’s departure on Aug. 16. “Every substantial employer in Hong Kong, in both the public and private sectors, has employees who have participated in marches that have frequently gone beyond their approved spatial or time limits. Should all the CEOs resign?”

By kowtowing to the CPC, some worry the airline risks becoming a symbol of subservience to Beijing.

Chinese officials called for some Cathay workers who had publicly supported pro-democracy protesters to be banned from flying into and over China and asked for the names of all Cathay workers whose jobs take them through Chinese airspace. China also demanded that Cathay draw up a new plan to improve flight safety and security measures. And, in case that pressure wasn’t intense enough, some big state-owned businesses including China Citic Bank International Ltd. and China Huarong International Holdings Ltd. advised employees not to book Cathay flights.

Ironically, unions in the semi-autonomous city are pleading with the Communist Party to stop pressuring management to employees who support, or have even dared to discuss, the protests. Hong Kong’s Confederation of Trade Unions held a press conference on Friday.

The confederation said 14 people have been fired so far over the protests, something it called a “blatant act of suppression.” Meanwhile, Cathay said the firing of Rebecca Sy, the union leader who was fired earlier this week allegedly for posting pro-democracy messages, had nothing to do with her role in the union.

END
Saturday:
Hong Kong riot police beat protesters who riot for the 12th straight week demanding democracy.  Citizens knock out “smart lampposts”
(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Riot Police Beat Protesters; ‘Smart Lampposts’ Destroyed

Hong Kong riot police unleashed on protesters Saturday after a tense standoff resulted in beatings and the deployment of tear gas for the first time in over a week, according to CNA

In Kowloon Bay, police charged protesters who were not in pre-approved rally areas for what is now the city’s 12th week of protests.

Around mid-afternoon, protesters at a police station used bamboo rods and plastic traffic barriers to build barricades, while other set things on fire in the street.

 

Photo: May James/HKFP

Protesters are simply not able to defend themselves. Police are abusing their powers,” one man told The Guardian.

Aaron Mc Nicholas

@aaronMCN

Tear gas outside Ngau Tau Kok police station – I saw at least two people being arrested when the police advanced

Embedded video

Down with ‘smart lampposts’ 

The central theme of this weekend’s protests is widespread opposition to the city’s installation of so-called ‘smart lampposts’ which are equipped with censors, closed-circuit cameras, and are connected to the net. While the government says they are only for the collection of air quality, traffic and weather data, protesters say they’re part of the state surveillance apparatus.

Protesters used an electric saw to cut down one such lamppost – with others pulling at it with ropes. The demonstrators shielded their faces with masks and umbrellas to avoid facial recognition.

Bloomberg TicToc

@tictoc

The frontline is formed in Kwun Tong on the 12th weekend of the

Embedded video

Bloomberg TicToc

@tictoc

A smart lamppost is down in Kwun Tong. The Chinese note says no totalitarian surveillance

Embedded video

劉修彣 Liu Hsiu Wen@liuhsiuwen

Inside the “smart” lamppost, any IT experts know what these are? Protesters who cut off the power cords just told me that the gov didn’t even lock the lamppost. “It feels like they are waiting for us to come over and take it down.”

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

BREAKING: Hong Kong protesters took down a “smart lamppost” and found suspicious Chinese-made components that could facilitate state surveillance. The HK government previously announced plans to fill the city with them to “collect traffic and weather data.” The plot thickens…

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

The ongoing demonstrations are aimed at pressuring Hong Kong leadership to respond to their political demands – namely, the complete withdrawl of a controversial extradition bill which allows mainland China to pluck Hong Kong residents out of the country for trial. Protesters are also demanding the establishment of an independent body to investigate police violence, and finally – the free election of Hong Kong’s leaders and legislature.

On Friday night, protesters formed a 28-mile-long human chainas people turned out for a peaceful demonstration similar to 1989 anti-Soviet protests in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Paul Joseph Watson

@PrisonPlanet

Protests tonight in Hong Kong are insane. Human chain goes on for miles. An American flag at the center.

Embedded video

There have been numerous skirmishes between riot police and protesters since the protests began, as one of the world’s “safest” financial hubs has become a battle zone.

END
The USA is continuing its verbal war against China’a aggressive behaviour in foreign waters. Saturday night seems the USA slam Cina’s escalating oil and gas interference in Vietnamese waters.
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Sunday: Iran/Turkey

Showdown coming as our infamous Iranian tankers is now heading for a Turkish port instead of Southern Greece as previous reported. The tanker is collected by the Iranian Revolutionary guard and the USA government has threatened anybody who provides aid or facilities to the vessel

(zerohedge)

Iranian Tanker Showdown Heads To Turkey

The Iranian tanker which had been detained for the past five weeks in Gibraltar has suddenly switched its ship data to showit is headed to a Turkish port, instead of arriving at waters off southern Greece, as previously planned.

Reuters has cited real-time ship tracking website MarineTraffic to show the change in the Adrian Darya’s (formerly called Grace 1) destination. This after the US State Department threatened that should Greece provide any aid or facilities to the vessel carrying 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil, it would be tantamount to “material support to terrorism”.

The Unites States says the tanker is controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and thus deems any state’s interaction with it support of a formally designated terrorist group. There’s still an active US seizure warrant for the vessel.

 

The Adrian Darya (formerly called Grace 1) supertanker’s destination is now southern Turkey. File image.

While the vessel never planned to actually enter a Greek port, listed as the port of Kalamata — especially given the overladen supertanker sits too low in the water — it’s been widely reported that a ship-to-ship transfer of the oil was to occur off its southern coast.

A US Statement Department statement issued Monday had warned Greece’s help could be considered “providing material support to a US-designated foreign terrorist organization”— this according to a State Department official who spoke to Reuters.

TRT World Now

@TRTWorldNow

Iranian oil tanker, Adrian Darya 1, sets sail from Gibraltar but has reportedly changed its course from Greece to Turkey

Embedded video

Tracking data now shows it plans to dock at the southern Turkish port of Mersin on Aug. 31 — an interesting choice given Washington-Ankara relations are at a low point over Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-air defense systems. 

Iran for its part has warned the US and UK not to interfere in the Iranian-flagged vessel’s movement, even recently voicing the possibility of sending a military escort to ensure the ship’s safe passage.

Should Turkey allow entry of the Iranian vessel to its port, this will be yet more fuel to the fire of heated tensions, which has also late seen Washington cancel Turkey’s F-35 program in a huge blow to the NATO ally’s defense industry.

END
Iran
Iran has announced that it has a “mystery buyer” who has purchased the 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil aboard the Adrian Darya.
(zerohedge)

‘Mystery Buyer’ Has Purchased The 2.1M Barrels Of Iranian Oil Aboard The Adrian Darya

As the previously detained Grace 1 tanker, since renamed the Adrian Darya 1, continues its voyage toward a port in southern Turkey, there’s been a significant development regarding the 2.1 million barrels of Iranian crude aboard which the US has sought to capture, claiming the ship is engaged in illegal sanctions busting.

On Monday an Iranian government spokesman announced the 2.1 million barrels have been sold to an unnamed buyer while en route across the Mediterranean.

In statements made to reporters in Tehran, spokesman Ali Rabiei, said of the oil’s as yet unmentioned unloading point, “The buyer of the oil decides where its destination is.” He added that the world is “witnessing the wrong policy by the U.S. in monitoring and intervention in others’ internal affairs.”

 

Image source: Getty/AFP

The Associated Press noted that “At market rates, the crude oil aboard the Adrian Darya would be worth about $130 million” and further that “anyone buying it likely would be targeted by U.S. financial sanctions.”

Over the weekend the real-time ship tracking website MarineTraffic showed a change in the Iran-flagged Adrian Darya’s destination. This after the US State Department threatened that should Greece provide any aid or facilities to the vessel carrying 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil, it would be tantamount to “material support to terrorism”.

The Unites States says the tanker is controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and thus deems any state’s interaction with it support of a formally designated terrorist group. There’s still an active US seizure warrant for the vessel. 

The tanker’s data initially had as its intended destination Kalamata, Greece, but later changed it during the voyage to Mersin, Turkey.

Tracking data now shows it plans to dock at the southern Turkish port on Aug. 31 — an interesting choice given Washington-Ankara relations are at a low point over Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-air defense systems, and resulting cancellation of the US F-35 transfer.

Iran for its part has warned the US and UK not to interfere in the Iranian-flagged vessel’s movement, even recently voicing the possibility of sending a military escort to ensure the ship’s safe passage

end

Sunday night: 
Turkey
fast 15% flash crash of the Turkish lira from 5.76 down to 6.4 lira to the dollar.  Although it rebounded expect another downfall in the lira tonight especially with news that the infamous Iranian oil tanker is headed for Turkey plus the huge downfall in the Chinese yuan.  Turkey can no longer see support for the lira coming from China.
(zerohedge)

Turkish Lira Flash Crashes, Plummets 15% In Seconds

Update: as fast as it came, the lira flash crash is over, with the currency trading down just 1.5% vs the dollar, surging from a flash crash of 15% just a few minutes earlier.

However, with all pre-existing longs now stopped out, we expect that the kneejerk rebound will fade shortly and the currency will resume drifting lower. That said, for those who bought at the lows, congratulations.

* * *

The Sunday session already had a flash crashy feel to it, when the first casualty as said “feel” became reality was the Turkish Lira, which suddenly snapped, plunging as much as 15% (yes, fifteen percent against the dollar in a matter of seconds.

There was no news – besides the already tense sentiment that had ravaged trader nerves on Sunday afternoon and dragged futures sharply lower – so it was either a fat finger or a macro fund getting stopped out at a huge loss.

One possible reason for the lira weakness: China, which we learned recently, had been supporting Turkish reserves with $1BN in swaps, may will no longer backstop the NATO member. However, that is pure speculation and the reason may simply be Mrs Watanabe, whose stops have a legendary ability of getting steamrolled every time there is macro tremors.

More if we see it, but for now keep an eye on the yuan, which is also tumbling if not nearly as fast as the Lira. We expect a response from the US Treasury imminently, as Trump orders Mnuchin to intervene directly and start buying up billions of the the Chinese currency.

 end
TURKEY
Turkey continues to affirm its claim on the oil and gas surrounding Cyprus.  This oil and gas was discovered by Israel and they told Cyprus that the discovery was proceeding onto their waters as well as Greece.  Turkey does not recognize the agreement for separation of Northern Cyprus with the rest of Cyprus signed in 1974.
(courtesy Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

Turkey Affirms Its Claim On Cyprus Oil And Gas

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Turkey will continue exploring for oil and gas in the eastern Mediterranean waters around disputed Cyprus, and “No project can be realised if Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus are not involved,” President Recept Erdogan said, as quoted by Cypriot media.

“We will continue to defend the rights of Turkish Cypriots with the same dedication,” Erdogan said following a meeting with the head of the Cypriot Turks.

Turkey, which recognizes the northern Turkish Cypriot government and doesn’t have diplomatic relations with the internationally recognized government of EU member Cyprus, claims that part of the Cyprus offshore area is under the jurisdiction of Turkish Cypriots or Turkey, and they are entitled to part of the potential oil and gas resources in the area. Turkey doesn’t recognize the agreements that Cyprus has signed with other countries in the Mediterranean over the exclusive maritime zones either.

 

Last month, tensions between Turkey and Greece regarding the Cyprus drilling rights spiked again when Greece’s newly elected government said Turkey undermined the security of the eastern Mediterranean with its drilling operations off the Cypriot shores.

“The illegal actions of Turkey, which defy international law are placing the security of the region at risk. As such, they are absolutely condemnable,” Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said,

adding “We discussed this flagrant violation of the sovereignty and the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus perpetrated by Turkey.”

A string of natural gas discoveries in the waters around Cyprus have turned the divided island into one of the new hot spots for gas, along with Egypt and Israel. Just recently, the island greenlit a consortium involving Eni and Total to drill for gas in a new part of its exclusive economic zone.

Turkey’s strong position on the issue of oil and gas suggests that internal tensions in Cyprus will continue and the newly found gas wealth will not help their resolution.

END
Iran/G7
Seems Macron is very naive..Iran wants an oil waiver resumption something that the uSA is not going to give as long as Iranians sponsor terrorism in Lebanon  through Hezbollah,  Gaza through Hamas as well as sending in intelligence into Syria. The uSA is not in any rush as Iran is basically bust.  We just saw them remove 4 zeros from their currency where one uSA dollar equals 122,500 riyals.
(zerohedge)

Zarif Makes Unexpected Arrival At G7: Iran Oil Waiver Resumption In The Works?

Though he had been due in Asia for a scheduled tour to bolster support for relief from US sanctions, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s plane made a surprise landing in Biarritz on Sunday, where the Group of Seven (G7) summit is in session.

Amid speculation over the plane’s unscheduled return to France, Iran’s foreign ministry has now confirmed FM Zarif has arrived in Biarritz for talks at the French foreign ministry’s invitation. However, “There won’t be any meeting or talks with the American delegation,” the statement said.

The Iranian delegation plans to hold meetings on the sideline of the G7 summit, western diplomatic sources have also said. French President Emmanuel Macron will reportedly be involved in the sideline meetings, after he told reporters at the summit he plans to continue holding talks with Tehran in the coming weeks over Iran’s nuclear program. Reports suggest Macron could press Trump for a resumption of the Iran oil waiver program.

 

Image source: Reuters

He and Zarif discussed moving forward just days ago in Paris. It also must be remembered that Zarif is currently under US Treasury department sanctions, and further it was recently revealed that last month Zarif had rebuffed a secret invitation to meet with President Trump in the oval office, which involved the mediation of Rand Paul.

Currently, there’s speculation over the possibility of Zarif or Iranian intermediaries engaging with US officials or even Trump himself on the sidelines of the summit. On Sunday Trump was asked about these rumors point blank, to which he responded“no comment”.

Meanwhile, Zarif’s unexpected presence could be part of a French initiative to press Washington for the resumption of the oil waiver program, which had allowed up to eight countries to continue importing Iranian crude on a conditional basis.

Julian Borger

@julianborger

French floating an initiative here at to resume waivers on some Iranian oil sales in return for Iran getting back in JCPOA, giving space for talks on missiles and the region. Devil in the details. They might get it past Trump, but what about Bolton, Khamenei and IRCG?

Macron said on Sunday just as Zarif’s plane touched down that G7 leaders “had a discussion yesterday on Iran and that enabled us to establish two common lines: no member of the G7 wants Iran to get a nuclear bomb and all the members of the G7 are deeply attached to stability and peace in the region,” he said.

As regional tensions again begin to soar over Israel’s renewed spate of attacks on Syria, and now it appears unprecedented attacks on Iraq and now Lebanon, will France and Iran make a last minute effort to press Washington toward stabilizing the situation and find common ground?

developing…

END

Israel/Lebanon

Israel invades Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in the last 24 hours.  The Lebanese President calls this a “declaration of War” but he refuses to deal with the paramilitary Hezbollah occupying the south

(zeorhedge)

Lebanon’s President Announces Israeli Attacks Are “Declaration Of War”

After pro-Iran allies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq were all hit in suspected Israeli strikes in the space of less than 24 hours, signalling a new aggression out of Tel Aviv and willingness to risk yet another major Middle East war, Arab capitals are now alerting their armed forces to be on a war footing

Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Monday condemned the “Israeli assault on the southern suburbs of Beirut” and told the country’s United Nations Special Coordinator, that the recent spate of drone strikes on Lebanon amount to a “declaration of war”.

 

Lebanese President Michel Aoun, file image via Reuters.

Especially in Lebanon, where the most powerful military force is not the Army but Shiite paramilitary group Hezbollah, tensions are soaring after Hezbollah media offices in Beirut were targeted by Israeli drones overnight Sunday.

Joyce Karam

@Joyce_Karam

New Video of alleged Israel strikes in east Lebanon ~ an hour ago, targeting Palestinian Group PFLP.

If true, this may be 4th military incident in Lebanon-Syria-Iraq involving Israel in 24 hours. Via @tobiaschneider

Embedded video

A separate Israeli operation the day following reached deep into Lebanon, killing a PFLP-GC leader in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley (a Palestinian paramilitary group).

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah described the weekend aggression as was the first Israeli attacks inside Lebanon since the devastating month-long 2006 war; however, Israel has yet to claim the Beirut attack.

end

Iraq/Israel

And now Iraqi officials who have strong ties to the Iran backed militia has declared that the Israeli strikes are a “declaration of war”.   That will fall on deaf ears.

(zerohedge)

 

Iraqi Officials Say Israeli Strikes Are “Declaration Of War” – Demand US Forces Exit

One of the obvious and expected consequences or instances of ‘blowback’ from Israel’s unprecedented decision to extend its “anti-Iran” campaign into Iraq, with three airstrikes widely blamed on either Israeli drones or possibly F-35s in the last five weeks, is that it will force a deepening conflict between Iraq’s military and US coalition forces.

There’s long been a broad base of Iraqi support that would like to see the American presence completely out of the country with the Islamic State long defeated, but now that political bloc just got a lot stronger in the wake of the alleged Israeli raids, at least one of which US officials have already admitted Israel bore responsibility for (a July 19 attack on a Popular Mobilization Forces base in Amirli). A powerful pro-Iran faction of parliament has called Israel’s alleged attacks “a declaration of war”.

 

Aftermath of the recent ‘mystery blast’ at a military base southwest of Baghdad. Image source: AP

The Associated Pressreports in the aftermath of yet another Israeli drone strike targeting and killing a Kataeb Hezbollah leader in al-Qaim, Iraq near the Syrian border that, “A powerful bloc in Iraq’s parliament is calling for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq following a series of airstrikes blamed on Israel targeting Iran-backed Shiite militias in the country.”

The influential and powerful Fatah Coalition, representing the country’s pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) issued a statement Monday holding the United States responsible for facilitation Israeli aggression on Iraqi soil, “which we consider to be a declaration of war on Iraq and its people,” the statement said. The statement noted further that American troops are no longer needed and only now serve to jeopardize Iraqi national security.

PMF commanders and officials have over the past weeks been the most vocal part of Iraq’s military and government blaming the recent spate of devastating attacks on Israel; however, following last week’s explosion at a base outside Baghdad – believed the result of an Israeli airstrike – it appears this view is now gaining support even from the prime minister’s office amid an ongoing official investigation into the blasts.

Footage showing the August 12th arms depot blast, widely blamed on Israel. Another strike on a munitions storage depot occurred on Aug. 20, and before this a July 19 attack grabbed headlines. 

Steven nabil

@thestevennabil

weapons depot blast

Embedded video

Last week Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi had called for an end to all “unauthorized flights” including US drones, spy planes, jets, or helicopters. The directive demanded that all aerial vehicles comply with Iraqi law and operations must be under Iraqi government authorization.

end

6.Global Issues

The last 3 days events as discussed by Michael Every..have we reached our Minsky Moment..

(Michael Every/Rabobank)

International Economic Emergency & Pork Pies

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Dramatic developments all round, folks. Friday saw China announce retaliation for upcoming increases in US tariffs, which will now rise step-for-step on 1 September and 15 December. We didn’t have to wait long for the response. US President Trump’s blistering set of tweets shouted:  “Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I won’t let that happen! We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. I will be responding to China’s Tariffs this afternoon.” Trump also alluded to seeing China as an “enemy” in another tweet.

He then followed through: the 25% tariffs already in place are now 30%, and the additional 10% tariffs due to kick in on 1 September and 15 December are to be 15%. Briefly, it then looked like Trump might be expressing “regret” – but the White House immediately clarified Trump only regrets not setting China tariffs at a higher rate to begin with. Moreover, Trump–and China ‘doves’ Mnuchin and Kudlow–have made clear he is willing to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act against China, if needed, which could have a far larger impact: goods or firms could be excluded from the US market, or access to the USD denied.

The People’s Daily has stated none of the extreme pressure tactics and intimidation by the US will work with China, which will “unswervingly protect itself” and that “the country’s countermeasures will be more rational, firmer and more powerful”; the Global Times added “China will not succumb even if US companies all leave China”.  (Harvey: deadly to China). More important for markets is that this morning in Asia CNH briefly hit a low of 7.19; CNY fixing this morning was 7.0570, as on Friday, to try to show that this is actually not the PBOC’s desire: but will that be enough if things keep deteriorating like this?My bearish CNY call has long raised eyebrow: well, since April we have moved 50 big figures. What’s another 58 over 12 months given the current backdrop? In short, we are close to a tariffs up – FX down spiral, which risks panicking everyone. US 10-year yields were at 1.48%, for example. Of course, we have been flagging a trade war since early 2017, calling it a Cold War since late 2017, arguing there is no deal to be done, and recently noted that we expected a full trade escalation. That is, by any definition, an international economic emergency.

But now to the pork pies. Among a potential shattering of supply chains, whether US-China or UK-EU, there are also new connections being made. UK PM Johnson had breakfast with Trump and in front of the cameras pushed him on market access for pork pies as well as cabotage (which Trump probably thought was something you eat). The prospect of a US-UK trade deal within a year is being dangled – but BoJo can only do that OR a deal for closer ties with the EU. The US has already just agreed in principle a trade deal with Japan that has “geopolitics” as much as  “local politics” written all over it. The Japanese government has decided that it suddenly needs to slash tariffs on US beef and pork and dairy; and the Japanese private sector has suddenly realised that it needs to buy massive volumes of corn and wheat. How convenient for all involved – and how inconvenient for rival agri exporters like Australia and New Zealand

Meanwhile, the “Biarritz-Krieg” I spoke of Friday is also in evidence on other fronts: Merkel vs. Macron over Macron Vs. Bolsonaro over the Amazon; Macron vs. Trump by trying to sneak in Iran’s –sanctioned- foreign minister to the G7 for a “surprise” visit; and Trump vs. everyone else in wanting to readmit Russia to the grouping as they are key to many of the issues being discussed.

But pork pies have another meaning. For anyone who grew up within the sound of Bow Bells, or who has watched East Enders since birth, will know that “pork pies” means “lies” in Cockney rhyming slang. And there is a lot that about.

For example, at the central banking retreat of Jackson Hole BOE Governor Carney gave a speech where he argued that it was time to contemplate the end of the USD as the global reserve currency! However, note that while safe haven FX like JPY is rallying this morning on trade fears, so is USD against EM FX (including another flash crash in TRY). Indeed, we recently published a report on how Facebook’s Libra could be the spine of a new global reserve system…but added that politics meant this would not happen. Is Carney–whose bank is contemplating being moved from EU to US orbit–unable to realise that real politik? And why did he say it while a guest in the US? Remarkable times – unless he wants a job with Facebook(?)

Furthermore, consider what was supposed to be the main event Friday – Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. I was wrong to say it would have keine weltanschauung. It did: it’s just that it was a vast pork pie. “Challenges for Monetary Policy” argued central banking has seen three phases: a post-WW2 era where policy wasn’t responsive enough and we got start-stop growth –lessons were learned via inflation targeting; a period where policy thought it had found a new “great moderation”, which then ended up with the global financial crisis – lessons have been learned via greater regulation; and now a phase where low inflation and low unemployment can coexist and where horrible trade wars are making decision-making really hard. No suggestion of massive Fed action to come – but the expected blame on tariffs as the cause of all our troubles. Frankly, that’s a High School level of economic history at best.

In fact, post-WW2 central banks were not independent and didn’t have a pure inflation mandate; moreover, the global economy was highly tariffed and on a gold standard (to which USD was pegged); yet that era’s “stop-start” growth created the West’s middle class. Then, as Triffin had predicted, the system broke down and USD went off gold as Bretton Woods collapsed. In the new fiat era an immediate oil shock meant serious inflation for a decade. Then we had a new phase of tight monetary policy, inflation targeting, and labour-power-destroying globalisation…and so the “great moderation” – which Minsky correctly argued would lead to a crisis. Post that crisis we now apparently have a Fed who doesn’t seem to realise that Minsky dangers lie in SHADOW banking, and in the push-pull of domestic politics vs. the Eurodollar system (an echo of Triffin that Carney does seem to understand) and in China’s massive over-building and over-production. They also don’t realise that labour vs. capital is still the key issue – or won’t say so. As such, while central banks are saying we are at the end of an era–and we are!–pointing fingers at “trade war” as the cause is as helpful as Trump pointing fingers at central banks as the “enemy”. Both are merely symptoms.

In short, international economic emergency, and pork pies, mean rates and bond yields are going lower; gold is going higher; so are havens like JPY and CHF; and yet so is the USD vs. EM FX.

end

Another sensational commentary from Tom Luongo.  He claims correctly that Trump has got it all wrong.  Actually the Fed is helping him against China by keeping rates high. You see, the real problem for the globe is a lack of dollars.  The higher rates causing yuan to leave China for dollars and that will bankrupt China

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Luongo: Trump’s Not A 4-D Chess-Player, He’s A Very Simple Creature

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Friday night used to be the ‘best night on television.’ But today Friday afternoon is becoming the best soap opera we could hope for as President Trump pulls out all the stops to keep us both horrified and entertained.

It’s better than reruns of Dallas, for sure, though the hair is just as ludicrous.

Trump laid into FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell again musing aloud on Twitter as to who the bigger enemy of the U.S. was, The Fed or China.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

As usual, the Fed did NOTHING! It is incredible that they can “speak” without knowing or asking what I am doing, which will be announced shortly. We have a very strong dollar and a very weak Fed. I will work “brilliantly” with both, and the U.S. will do great…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?

Now, far be it for me to get upset with anyone criticizing the Federal Reserve. The FOMC, is really just a Politburo of Ivory Tower intellectuals with neither the practical experience nor the specific knowledge needed to ‘run the economy.

But, news tip for you, neither does Donald Trump.

If you listen to Trump carefully, seeing him for what he is not what you think he is, what you want him to be or, most importantly, what he wants you to seeyou hear a man who fully believes the Fed controls the economy.

You hear a man that firmly believes in the power of the government to remake the world in whatever image it wants, whenever it wants.

You hear a man so solipsistic he can only see the world in terms he defined more than thirty years ago.

You hear a man who fundamentally doesn’t believe trade results in both sides winning but that everyone either wins a deal or loses. If he didn’t extract maximum pain from the other side he ‘lost.’

It’s the source of Trump’s inherent mercantilism.

And that fault in Donald Trump’s character is leading him to ever more extreme behavior as he refuses to reconcile the world we have versus the world he wants.

So he keeps pressuring, embarrassing and humiliating people he wants to make deals with. And when they refuse to do so, he explodes and, like a child who didn’t get his cookie, uses the power of the Presidency to still try to get what he wants.

Treating his opposition like the Democrats and the Media this way is fine. They treat him far worse than he does them; giving back in kind what he gets.

But his stance on the Fed, who are actually helping him in the long run, is insane. And it proves the point that no matter how smart you are, if you are mis-educated and have spent a life building wealth based on that mis-education, you will not be able to see the other side of the problem.

The strong dollar he is so angry about isn’t a function of the Fed’s raising interest rates. It’s not about policy bifurcation between the Fed and the ECB and the Bank of Japan.

It’s come about because of the continued application of the same mis-education Trump received about the role of interest rates that the Fed consistently (and wrongly) applies.

The world is just short dollars Don. And lowering borrowing costs won’t help the situation. It’s what created it in the first place.

Trump’s not a multi-dimensional analyst. He isn’t a 4-d chess player. He’s actually a very simple creature. He believes the crap spewed by CNBC. He’s hired advisers who worked there for pity’s sake.

The Fed is now in fear for its independence and Trump, again very child-like, wants the world remade in his image yesterday and on his time table not the world’s.

So, all of the radical changes he has pushed to the flow of global capital through his near daily abuse of sanctions and tariffs have created immense uncertainty in dollar funding markets around the world.

And with a $60 trillion synthetic short position against the dollar extent thanks to a decade of zero-bound interest rates courtesy of the Fed, dollar hoarding is a very real thing.

Martin Armstrong blogged the other day remarking that there are more $100 bills in existence today than $1 bills. Why? Overseas mattress stuffing.

More recently, the amount of US currency in circulation outside the United States has now exceeded 70%. The world is hoarding dollars for they fear the cancellation of their own currencies as talk of eliminating cash in Europe has escalated with the prospect of Christine Lagarde replacing Draghi.

As Americans have moved increasingly toward debit and credit cards, the rest of the world has been sucking-up US dollars beyond belief. Anyone who questions whether the US dollar is the reserve currency, well the cash is not being held by governments or central banks. The people are now hoarding US dollars at record levels.

Every day that Trump complains about the Fed or China or Europe or Iran is another day in which he himself helps force more dollars into those mattresses overseas. Some of those hundreds of billions get converted into gold and bitcoin.

Further, the Fed lowering rates will only signal to those people that they have the right idea because the Fed wouldn’t be doing that if the global economy was in such good shape.

They would be raising rates.

And it’s a point Trump refuses to understand. Lowering rates here will not free up capital at home to be lent. Banks are already as loathe to lend as I am to write anything on a Thursday lest I misread the upcoming episode of Trump’s version of Freaky Friday in Fedlandia.

If banks were confident of the returns on their loan prospects they wouldn’t still be hoarding excess reserves at the Fed like everyone else.

They’ve disgorged more than $1 trillion over the past year as the Fed has wound down its balance sheet. This is the Fed, in its own ham-fisted way trying to free up dollars for circulation. Because when you create a backwards market you have to do things backwards to unwind them.

The Fed never intended for the trillions it printed bailing out the world in 2008-09 to circulate. If it did it would have never paid interest on excess reserves (IOER) in the first place.

This is also why the recovery has been a long, slow water-torture affair only kept alive by China blowing a massive credit bubble which Trump wants to prick but without it he would have never gotten the opportunity to MAGA.

The truth is, Powell’s helping with that, Don. Higher rates are what China can’t handle. Part of what’s worked for them is keeping rates above 3% while the Fed was zero-bound.

Raising rates has capital pouring into the U.S. and out of China, searching for yield as the yuan falls. But he, like all children, like the infantilized Baby Boomer he is, wants it all and he wants it now, before re-election.

This is ultimately what all of this whining is about, Trump’s re-election.

What this means, of course, is that we have at least another year of the best soap opera fake money can buy. I’m just waiting for someone to take on the role of Kramer banging open the door to Don’s apartment randomly and saying, “Hello! Deflation is Here…. or is that Inflation?”

Powell’s hair isn’t crazy enough for it.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you want to know how

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Argentina

The IMF has a major decision to make; fork over another $5.6 billion tranche to an already bankrupt Argentina or suffer the consequences of a bankruptcy the moment Cristina Fernandez wins the next election

(zerohedge)

 

“It’s An Embarrassment”: IMF Faces Humiliation, Billions In Losses As Argentina Braces For Next Default

On Friday, when CNBC’s Steve Liesman was interviewing the IMF’s new chief economist, Gita Kopinath, we suggested that he ask what the IMF’s plan is for Argentina now that the country was facing what appears yet another bond default.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Hey @steveliesman can you ask the IMF chief economist what their Argentina plan is now.

And while Steve did in fact ask that question, he didn’t get a direct answer for one simple reason: the IMF has no clue what it will do now that it is facing a historic loss on its latest, and biggest ever, $56 billion bailout of Argentina, which was completed less than over a year ago in September 2018.

It gets worse: not only does the IMF have to scramble to preserve its current bailout, and credibility, having sunk billions into a country which humiliated the IMF at the start of the century when it defaulted last, the monetary fund has to decide whether to keep injecting money into a nation that many believe will soon default on its foreign obligations – and the IMF – again, after President Mauricio Macri just got trounced by the populist opposition in a nationwide primary vote, after his IMF-backed program – based around much hated budget austerity and the world’s highest interest rates – failed to pull the economy out of recession. What happened next, as we reported two weeks ago,  was a 20% crash in the peso and a collapse in government bonds, which pushed the implied risk of default above 80%.

It was in this dire context that IMF delegates arrived in Argentina on Saturday and, as Bloomberg reports, immediately began meetings with policy makers, facing a deja vu choice from two decades ago: risk making the turmoil even worse by withholding a $5.3 billion installment due next month – or cough it up, and risk even more losses with the IMF bailout program on the verge of collapse.

The IMF’s henchmen also have to figure out the economic plans of opposition chief Alberto Fernandez – who is set to head a less market-friendly government in a few months, an outcome which the IMF clearly not even once considered when it “offered” Macri’s regime tens of billions in loans in exchange for draconian terms that flipped public opinion against him in just a handful of months. And while elections are still two months away, and miracles can certainly happen, Macri’s 15-point primary defeat has led analysts to write him off as a lame duck.

 

Lagarde and Macri

“The IMF has put a lot in – not just money, but prestige,” said Hector Torres, a former executive director at the Fund who represented South American countries. “The fact that the arrangement is not performing well right now is an embarrassment,” he said. And the September installment is “going to be a difficult call.”

If the IMF does decide to throw good money after bad, it can justify it by pointing out what until recently, was at least modest success: Argentina was roughly on track to meet an IMF target of balancing the budget this year (excluding interest payments). Of course, the reason why the country performed as expected is also the reason why Macri is now on the way out, and the IMF’s involvement in the Argentine economy and politics has managed to unite the local population in its hatred unlike any other issue.

The Fund may cite that performance in the first half of the year as grounds for handing over next month’s payout, according to Priscila Robledo, Latin America economist at Continuum Economics in New York. “That’s what I think will be the justification: ‘Nothing happened at the end of June, we’re all fine’,” she said.

This is also known as the ostrich head in the sand approach, which works great… until Argentina “unexpectedly” announces it is defaulting once again.

What the fund will not cite is Argentina’s economic performance, as GDP expectations have collapsed under the IMF’s supervision, as the following Bloomberg chart shows.

And then there are the IMF’s attempts to tame Argentina inflation. Needless to say, they have failed dismally.

Another reason why the IMFwill be careful how to spin its “success” to date is that even Macri appears to have given up on compliance. Since the ballot reverse, Macri’s government has begun to aggressively loosen policy, in contravention to IMF orders. It froze fuel prices and boosted subsidies, in an effort to shield the poorest Argentines as the peso’s latest slide threatens to push inflation even higher.

“The Fund might say its evaluation going forward is that they won’t be met,” said Daniel Marx, an Argentina “expert” who negotiated with the IMF two decades ago as the country’s finance secretary, and now heads research company Quantum Finanzas in Buenos Aires. In that case, “the disbursement could be at risk.” It would also put the IMF on the hook for billions in losses, mostly funded by US taxpayers who will be curious to learn why their money is sued to perpetuate the IMF’s gross incompetence.

The central bank could also breach IMF targets, as it burns through cash to defend the peso, Marx said. “Now that they’re starting to intervene in spot markets, that might affect net reserves.” While last week, the bank managed to steady currency and bond markets, Argentina’s benchmark debt trades below 50 cents on the dollar, a red flag for the Fund which realizes default when it sees it.

No matter how the IMF spins it, even a cursory look at Argentina’s economic performance over the past year confirms the fund’s intervention has only made the disaster worse.

As Bloomberg notes, the IMF has special criteria, which it adjusted after the Greek crisis, for jumbo loans like the one Macri got – and compliance is reassessed at each review. Two of them are key for Argentina right now: the Fund has to be satisfied that a borrower’s debt is sustainable and that it has decent prospects of access to private capital.

Judging by the markets, Argentina will almost certainly not meet those benchmarks. That opens a range of possibilities, including what the IMF calls “reprofiling” – an extension of debt maturities a la Greece, with few other changes – or the kind of restructuring brokered by the Fund for Ukraine in 2015, which involved haircuts too.

In an amusing twist Fernandez, who trumpets his experience working with the IMF as cabinet chief in the years after the 2001 crisis, insists that there’ll be no replay. “There’s no possibility that Argentina will fall into default if I’m president,” he said on Wednesday. Well, yes: one would probably not expect him to admit his first action as president will be to push the country into yet another sovereign default.

Bracing for the worst, the IMF has already opened channels to the opposition leader, including meetings with advisers Matias Kulfas and Cecilia Todesca, and those contacts are set to deepen starting this week. None of that will have any impact on the ultimate outcome, and explains why Fernandez has been vague about policy commitments and says talks with the IMF are Macri’s responsibility while he’s president. The bottom line is simple: opposition chief has said the program must be revised to allow Argentina to grow again. Failing that, a default is inevitable.

“Fernandez’s first request will be to reschedule,” said Patrick Esteruelas, head of research at EMSO Asset Management in New York.  If a deal can’t be hammered out, “private sector debt holders would have to take some form of haircut.”

But while creditors will be hit, it will be the ordinary Argentina citizens that will be crushed:

Ordinary Argentines also have traumatic memories of failed IMF programs. Many blame the Fund for the epic collapse of two decades ago, one reason why Macri’s decision to go to the IMF last year was so risky.

Of course, a worst case outcome won’t be unprecedented as the Latin American nation already has an illustrious history of stuffing the IMF: in late 2001, after a series of missed budget targets and re-upped IMF loans, the government announced it was preparing to restructure debt. Argentines rushed to the banks to pull their money out, finding their deposits had been frozen by authorities, an event known as the “corralito”, an outcome similar to what happened in Greece in the summer of 2015.

A week later, the IMF finally pulled the plug, declining to disburse more funds. Mass protests erupted, leading to dozens of deaths. The political system convulsed, with four presidents succeeding each other in the space of a month. In the longer run, Argentina was frozen out of world markets for over a decade, and millions saw their savings wiped out.

While some analysts are confident that this time will be different, others argue that with an even greater build up of imbalances, the outcome could be even more devastating, especially when considering the prospect of an extended transition of power, something which traditionally results in social upheaval in Argentina.

There’ll be a four-month gap between the Aug. 11 primary and the swearing-in of a new government. And the Fund has its own leadership vacuum: Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief who signed off on Argentina’s loan, is in transit to the European Central Bank and may not be replaced for weeks.

“The IMF is in a serious pickle,” said Esteruelas. “It reminds me of the saying: If you owe the bank $100, it’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, it’s the bank’s problem.”

The best news? After leaving Argentina’s economic in disaster, and the IMF’s reputation in tatters, Christine Lagarde is off to finish off her work by taking over the ECB and doing what she does best: destroying Europe once and for all.

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1118 DOWN .0011 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS/CHINESE CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.85 UP 0.553 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2239   UP   0.0024  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3306 DOWN .0032 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 11 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1118 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 33.86 POINTS OR 1.17% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 499.00 POINTS OR 1.91%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 499.00 POINTS OR 1.91%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.86 POINTS OR 1.17%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.26 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 449.87  POINTS OR 2.17%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1529.90

silver:$17.60-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.52% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.01 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.94 UP 31 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.17% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.26%  UP 4   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.13%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,33 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 120 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.67% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.00% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1118  DOWN     .0016 or 16 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.99 UP .699 OR YEN DOWN 70  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2232 UP .0017 POUND UP 17  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 1 basis points to 1.3274

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1512    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1691  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8113 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.26%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.53 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.03 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.00 UP 36  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 33.20  0.47%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 46.53 POINTS OR .40%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 24.15 POINTS 0.45%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 28.70 POINTS or 0.34%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 202.97 POINTS OR 0.99%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.12 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.05 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    66.07  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.02 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 2 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.67 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.73//

 

 

BRENT :  58.84…did not buy the Dow move

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.53  up 0 and did not buy the Dow move…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.04 up one basis pt and did not buy the dow move ..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1099 ( down 29   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.13 up .830 (YEN down 83 BASIS POINTS/..and the usa/yen pair was used in the ramping up of the Dow)

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.06 up 42 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2218 UP 4  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.826.. getting dangerously close to 6.0 to one…

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.07   UP 0.02 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 2 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3256 down 18 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1512  (ONSHORE)/very dangerous and did not buy the Dow gain

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1688 (OFFSHORE)/ very dangerous and did not buy the Dow gain.

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.67%

 

The Dow closed UP 269.93 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 101.97 POINTS OR 1.32%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.29 CLOSED DOWN .58

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.144%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Jump On Trump-Pump But Yield Curve Inverts Most In Over 12 Years

“Talk, Talk” is what sparked a furious 700-Dow-point pumpathon off overnight lows. The question is – did they?

Chinese stocks closed before Trump jawboned markets higher, catching down to Friday’s US collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks opened lower but ramped like every other risk asset on Trump hype about a “call” with China (UK was closed)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

US equities managed gains thanks to Trump’s trade talk tales overnight but went nowhere intraday…

 

NOTE – look at the close!!!

 

But remain well down from Thursday’s close…

 

 

Volume was over 20% below average (not helped with UK’s holiday)

Source: Bloomberg

Futures show the real action as algos lifted markets overnight then snapped higher when Trump talked of “talks”… BUT The Dow could not break above its 61.8% retracement of the Friday plunge…

 

The Dow bounced off its 200DMA…again

 

Notably, the odds of a trade deal spiked at the open but rapidly fell back as the day wore on…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Treasury bonds ended marginally higher on the day as the initial yield collapse was ramped higher across Europe’s open (UK closed)…

Source: Bloomberg

Crazy shifts in yields (UK was closed) left 10Y and 30Y (back below 2.00%) marginally unchanged after plunging in Asia…

Source: Bloomberg

But the yield curve collapsed (2s10s closed at its most inverted since May 2007)… 3rd day of closing inversion in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

But it’s the 3m10Y spread that matters most and that has also collapsed to new cycle lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury vol exploded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar surged back today, erasing Fib 61.8% of the Friday plunge…

Source: Bloomberg

Turkish Lira flash-crashed an unreal 15% at the open (not seen in chart) but bounced back to still end significantly weaker on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

A stunning plunge in the yuan at the open saw some bounce (very modestly stronger fix) but that faded as the day went on…

Source: Bloomberg

Asian FX plummeted to its lowest since 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos spiked overnight but faded all day to end lower from Friday…

Source: Bloomberg

But Bitcoin held above $10k…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were crazy today with copper and gold mirroring each other, silver shrugging it all off as crude crumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

 

WTI tumbled to a $52 handle briefly overnight, before algos ripped it up to erase Friday’s loss, before it dumped all the way back down (reportedly in possible US-Iran tension easing)…

 

Gold managed to hold on to very modest gains after being dumped at the EU open (as Trump spoke) – after spiking above $1560 in Futs and $1550 spot…

Silver, on the other hand, was up well over 1%, refusing to listen to Trump…

Pushing Silver to dramatically outperform gold on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

As Yuan continues to weaken against the barbarous relic…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Bloomberg’s Vincent Cignarella notes, the “McCulley Indicator” is rolling over. In markets speak, that means that the Capital Goods New Orders Non-defense Ex Aircraft & Parts series has been falling since November 2017 and is currently at 0.3%. (The measure is named for former PIMCO managing director Paul McCulley, who viewed it as a recession indicator.)

Source: Bloomberg

Over the last 20 years, when the data print has crossed below zero on a three-month Y/Y basis, a recession has followed

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA/SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASIA

Market In Turmoil: Gold Spikes, Yuan Crashes, Stocks Plunge As Asia Opens

In early Asia trading, offshore yuan has extended Friday’s collapse, testing the lower edge of the PBOC’s Yuan trading band once again.

Yuan traded as weak as 7.1925 against the USDollar…

Source: Bloomberg

Pressuring the weaker end of the Yuan peg band…

Source: Bloomberg

At the same time, USDJPY is tumbling (Yen strength), testing the lows of the flash-crash from early January…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold has exploded higher, testing $1550…

Source: Bloomberg

With gold rising and yuan plunging, the Chinese currency is at its weakest against the precious metal since 2012…

Source: Bloomberg

US Equity futures are reeling with Dow Futures down over 400 more points…

Treasury futures opened up dramatically, implying a 10Y yield of around 1.36% (around 8bps lower in yield).

Source: Bloomberg

And oil prices are plunging…

Turmoil is coming.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Yield curve inverts again

(zerohedge)

US Treasury Yield Curve Tumbles Back Into Inversion

For a few brief hours overnight, the much-watched 2s10s segment of the US Treasury curve un-inverted, following Friday’s collapse. That is now over as the curve has dropped back below -1bps…

Source: Bloomberg

Time to start focusing on another part of the yield curve or else this is getting serious.

ii)Market data/USA

Hard data durable goods disappoint as shipments slum the most in 3 years

(zerohedge)

Core Durable Goods Orders Disappoint As Shipments Slump Most In 3 Years

Despite a headline beat (juiced by huge and volatile surges in defense and non-defense aircraft orders), core durable goods orders disappointed and capital goods shipments (ex-Air) slumped by the most since Oct 2016.

Durable Goods Orders rose 2.1% MoM (well above the 1.2% rise expected) and YoY, durable goods rebounded into the positive…

Source: Bloomberg

Much of the surprise was driven by gains in aircraft orders:

  • nondefense aircraft and parts new orders +47.8%
  • defense aircraft and parts new orders +34.4%

But core durable goods orders disappointed (falling 0.4% MoM against expectations of no change)…

Source: Bloomberg

And moreover, shipments (ex-Air) fell by 0.7% MoM – the biggest drop since Oct 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

The slump in sales of equipment suggests American businesses remained cautious about capital spending ahead of this month’s escalation of the U.S.-China trade war.

The report compares with recent data that signal further cracks in the manufacturing sector. Markit’s PMI posted its first contraction since 2009, and the Kansas City Fed’s factory gauge shrank.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

An absolute joke..there was no call.  Trump just needed to juice the makrets

(zerohedge)

“Call Or No Call?” Mnuchin Explains What “Really” Happened

Dow futures slumped 200 points early this morning after China denied a call had taken place with Trump’s team, which as pointed out earlier, juiced US equity futures 700 Dow points off overnight lows.

Trump and Mnuchin quickly sprang into action to try to talk the market back up:

Reporter: “Did you mean to say that there was also a call last night [with China] or was there not actually a call?”

Steve Mnuchin: “There were discussions that went back and forth, and let’s just leave it at that.”

Trump [interrupting]: “Last night. And before last night.”

But one glimpse at Mnuchin’s face (the worst poker player ever) tells you all you need to know about what really happened:

Bobby Lewis@revrrlewis

Reporter: “Did you mean to say that there was also a call last night [with China] or was there not actually a call?”

Steve Mnuchin: “There were discussions that went back and forth, and let’s just leave it at that.”

Trump [interrupting]: “Last night. And before last night.”

Embedded video

Sure enough, algos which didn’t care if Trump was lying, immediately kneejerked stocks higher:

The issue at hand is 1) Mnuchin wants to shut down the discussion immediately rather than discuss any more details and 2) they appear to reference comments from Chinese vice premier Liu which were made to the Chinese press (confirming no desire to escalate a trade war) as opposed to an actual call overnight.

We give the last word to Jim Cramer, who waltzed onto CNBC’s set this morning and proclaimed:

“You can claim that the president’s a liar, but the futures are up, so I don’t care…”

Indeed Jim, that is all that matters…

end

A very important commentary from \jeffrey Snider.  He emphasizes the fact that although the manufacturing PMI

disappoints Wall Street is only 12% of GDP, he becomes deeply disturbed by the other 88% i.e. the service sector which also disappoints the street

(Jeffrey Snider.Alhambra)

Way Beyond The “12%” – Exposing The “But It’s Only Manufacturing” Narrative

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

It’s becoming fashionable again to dismiss manufacturing. In 2015, we heard repeatedly how it represented only 12% of overall economic output. Any minor problems affecting such a small slice would surely be nothing much for the other seven-eights of the economy to overcome. There was no way Yellen’s rate hikes and the booming recovery they would anticipate would be derailed by such a trivial segment.

The idea has been given new life now that one rate cut has been undertaken. Last year, the downplaying had been more straightforward; there’s absolutely nothing wrong and nothing to stop a hawkish Powell. This year, maybe there is something wrong, but it’s only manufacturing. One-and-done rate cut should be sufficient.

IHS Markit reported yesterday its flash PMI numbers for the US economy in August. Sure enough, right off the top the manufacturing PMI dropped below 50 confirming continued weakness in the sector.

However, while it might be easy to dismiss this as just one problem, you have to acknowledge that it’s becoming a very big one even if it is only 12% of the economy. According to Markit, US manufacturing hasn’t been this bad off (below 50) since September 2009. We keep comparing the latest figure to that one month because each successive update drops a little more than the last one.

So, even if you don’t believe manufacturing accounts for much on its own you have to at least consider what must be going on in the other 88% which might leave the sector in such bad shape – without sight of a turnaround.

And it’s not the below 50 that should concern you. It’s more so that the trend keeps going after having confirmed (with other similar indications) that at least the goods economy smashed into a landmine back during the last quarter of 2018 absolutely must have suffered some substantial damage from doing so.

So, manufacturing is in really rough shape, but what about the larger maybe more pivotal service sector? That’s where the real bad news comes in. Markit’s Services PMI dropped from 53.0 in July to 50.9 August. It had rebounded last month which many believed would continue since it was, purportedly, the US economy finally showing its employment-based strength.

If not a second half rebound, then at least a second half stabilizing.

The flash August estimates pour a heavy dose of cold water on already tepid optimism. The composite PMI for August was just 50.9, matching May’s lowest in three years.

Should these estimates prove anywhere close to accurate, alongside the BLS’ benchmark revisions (which just subtracted one-fifth of the previously figured payroll gains between March 2018 and March 2019), the balance of risks are all wrong for either of those.

One Markit representative commented:

The most concerning aspect of the latest data is a slowdown in new business growth to its weakest in a decade, driven by a sharp loss of momentum across the service sector. Survey respondents commented on a headwind from subdued corporate spending as softer growth expectations at home and internationally encouraged tighter budget setting. [emphasis added]

What it suggests is quite apart from the idea of a narrow pocket of trouble due to trade wars and protectionist sentiment. There’s already broad-based weakness spreading throughout all of the US economy (not to mention everywhere else in the world). It may not yet add up to a full-scale recession, but all the signs keep pointing that way as does a wide array of indications which month after month continue inching closer and closer to a prospective date with one.

The longer it goes like this the greater the risk something just gives.

Jay Powell can declare “mid-cycle adjustment” all he wants. The data, including the revised labor data, just isn’t consistent with a one-and-done. Nor does it lead one to believe this is a limited 12% scenario. If nothing else, the downside risks keep rising and they were already substantial to start this month.

END
Now Maine’s blueberry industry decimated by the trade war escalation
(zerohedge)

“It’s Gone, The Market Has Evaporated:” Maine’s Blueberry Industry In Crisis After Trade War Escalation

If you thought corn and soybean farmers in the Central and Midwest US had it rough, Maine’s blueberry industry just witnessed the largest ever collapse in sales to China, because that country imposed a 70% tariff on berries in retaliation to President Trump’s tariffs targeting Chinese goods.

Maine’s blueberry industry could be on the verge of a crisis, a 70% tariff rate has generated so much confusion and uncertainties that berry farmers are asking for a government bailout to prevent a tidal wave of farm bankruptcies in the state.

However, what’s surprising, is that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) denied berry farmers government bailouts this summer, which were mostly reserved for corn and soybean farmers in the Midwest

 

“I thought we had a pretty good case,” says Nancy McBrady, director of the Department’s Bureau of Agriculture, Food and Rural Resources. “There’s a demonstrated challenge relative to loss of access to China because of the trade dispute. Its gone, the market has evaporated.”

McBrady told WCSH Maine that exports account for 20 to 25% of sales of Maine blueberries, and China was a massive part of that.

The Wild Blueberry Commission said Maine sells blueberries to several major international markets, including Japan and Korea, the global trade war has not yet harmed those sales.

The Commission warned that when President Trump slapped China with tariffs, and China retaliated against US berry producers, it enabled Canadian berry producers to take away Maine’s market share into China completely.

“If Canada is selling berries in China, they are not sending them to the USA, which have a good impact on us,” Paul Sweetland, owner of Coastal Blueberry Services, said.

McBrady said the Commission needs to rework supply chains and increase domestic sales of the berries. But she said President Trump needs to settle trade disputes before more damage tips Maine’s berry industry into further crisis.

“We just hope the trade situation can be stabilized. Ultimately that’s where everybody wants to end up, so we don’t have to rely on government programs to provide this type of assistance.”

And there’s more terrible news for berry farmers, the entire agriculture complex, and quite frankly multinationals in the US on Friday morning.

China announced it would levy retaliatory tariffs on another $75BN in US goods with rates anywhere between 5 and 10%, with the tariffs set to be implemented in two batches, one at midnight on Sept 1 and another at midnight on Dec 15.

Additionally, China said it would resume 25% tariffs on US autos, stating that “China’s adoption of tariff-adding measures is a forced move to deal with US unilateralism and trade protectionism.”

There was even a headline that stated China would impose an extra 5% tariff on soybeans on Sept.1.

With that being said, everyone is focused on farmers imploding in the Midwest. Now there’s more evidence the farm crisis is spreading.

END

After Mark Carney Admits That Low Rates Lead To War, San Fran Fed Suddenly Changes Its Mind On NIRP

Back in February 2019, we reported that the San Francisco Fed, already infamous for wasting millions in taxpayer funds on glaringly idiotic research, reached a remarkable, goalseeked conclusion: in a paper titled “How Much Could Negative Rates Have Helped the Recovery“, it found that – as the title suggests – negative interest rate would have helped the recovery.

As a reminder, unlike Europe or Switzerland, where deposit rates have been negative for years, the US central bank is generally perceived as not having a mandate to take rates below the “lower bound” or negative, i.e. to implement what is affectionately known as “NIRP.” And yet, according to the regional west coast Fed this is a mistake, because research from San Fran Fed’s Vasco Curdia, “allowing the federal funds rate to drop below zero may have reduced the depth of the recession and enabled the economy to return more quickly to its full potential. It also may have allowed inflation to rise faster toward the Fed’s 2% target. In other words, negative interest rates may be a useful tool to promote the Fed’s dual mandate.

While the report engages in the type of tortured, goalseeked analysis that we have grown to “love” from central banks for the past decade, the same central banks who did not anticipate that their disastrous bubble-blowing policies would result in the financial crisis of 2008 (which last we checked, has not been blamed on Putin just yet), and presents the following chart to confirm that, indeed, if only the Fed had cut rates to -0.75%, the recovery would have magically been far stronger…

… and concludes that NIRP is precisely what the (econ) PhD(octor) should have ordered:

This Letter quantitatively evaluates the beneficial impact a negative Fed policy rate could have had during the recovery from the Great Recession. While it’s difficult to capture all the complexities of the economy in a model, this analysis suggests that negative rates could have mitigated the depth of the recession and sped up the recovery, though they would have had little effect on economic activity beyond 2014. The analysis also shows that the interest rate does not have to fall too deeply into negative territory to accomplish meaningful economic improvements.

As we concluded then “In short, NIRP would have made the recession shorter and less acute according to the San Francisco Fed, and since it is impossible to argue the counterfactual, we now have “research” that sets the framework for what happens next.

That this report was issued just days after the ECB itself “found” that QE had, hilariously, reduced inequality, was probably not a coincidence.

European Central Bank

@ecb

ECB asset purchases have reduced inequality in the eurozone, our research shows. They have especially benefited low-income households, which suffer the most from unemployment. Full Research Bulletin here https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-research/resbull/2019/html/ecb.rb190129.en.html?utm_source=ecb_twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=190130_rb_january_2019&utm_content=qe_inequality_2019 

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After just months later, first the ECB pre-announced it would cut rates even more negative and resume QE, while the Fed waited a few months before its first rate cut in a decade, with some speculating that the Fed will cut all the way to zero and beyond.

In other words, the SF Fed was merely setting the stage for what comes next, or so we thought.

Or maybe not, because in an unexpected reversal, on Monday the same San Francisco Fed published an economic letter, titled “Negative Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in Japan” which reaches a decidedly different conclusion: that contrary to economist expectations – and we highlight “economist”, because this conclusion would have been obvious to anyone with a semi-functioning frontal cortex – Japan’s negative rate experience “resulted in decreased, rather than increased, immediate and medium-term expected inflation.

In other words, NIRP actually compounded the problem it was meant to address, and hardly the panacea that the San Fran Fed said back in February is what would have helped quicken the recovery.

Here is the summary from the paper:

After Japan introduced a negative policy interest rate in 2016, market expectations for inflation over the medium term fell immediately. This can be seen by assessing how prices for Japanese bonds with embedded deflation protection responded to the policy announcement. The reaction stresses the uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of negative policy rates as expansionary tools when inflation expectations are anchored at low levels. Japan’s experience also illustrates the desirability of taking preemptive steps to avoid the zero interest rate bound.

But… but… the San Francisco Fed in February said precisely the opposite.

Mocking intellectually challenged individuals, i.e. career economists, aside, here is the “unexpected” conclusion:

Because of the long period of low inflation in Japan, its experience provides an interesting example of the impact of negative monetary policy rates when inflation expectations are well-anchored at very low levels. We examine movements in yields on inflation-indexed and deflation-protected Japanese government bonds to gauge changes in the market’s inflation expectations from the BOJ moving to negative policy rates. Our results suggest that this movement resulted in decreased, rather than increased, immediate and medium-term expected inflation. This therefore suggests using caution when considering the efficacy of negative rates as expansionary policy tools under well-anchored inflation expectations.

Why, what a total and unexpected surprsie: almost as if nobody could have possibly foreseen that doing much more of the same will not only not lead to a different outcome, but will make the existing situation worse. Congratulations to at least the two SF Fed economists who “figured it out.”

And yet, we wondered, what may have prompted this shift, and the answer quickly presented itself when we thought of Mark Carney’s historic Jackson Hole speech in which the BOE head admitted that the days of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency are ending, and it should be replaced with an alternative (his laughable proposal was to have a “Synthetic Hegemonic Currency”, i.e. Facebook’s Libra become the world’s next reserve currency. While we are confident that Mark Zuckerberg would be delighted if he were to become the central banker to the world, the probability of such an outcome absent war is nil.

However, what was maybe even more notable in Carney’s speech was the following brief admission that everything that has happened in the past decade, every central bank policy pursued since the financial crisis has been a mistake. This:

Past instances of very low rates have tended to coincide with high risk events such as wars, financial crises, and breaks in the monetary regime.

So, let’s get this straight: for years, the general population has been told that only lower rates can spark an economic recovery, inspire higher inflation (as if that’s good) and lead to an economic rebound. Yet suddenly we find ourselves in an odd predicament, where years after a website called Zero Hedge warned that low rates and QE would lead to civil war in the US (a prediction for which it was roundly mocked), none other than one of the most respected central bankers warns that, wait for it, “low rates have tended to coincide with events such as wars and financial crises.”

So… we were right and these creatures were either clueless or lying all along?

As for the San Fran Fed, that absurd joke of a “research institution” which couldn’t see the housing bubble in 2006/2007 despite being smack in the middle of it when it was headed by one Janet Yellen, finally figuring out what we first said ten years ago – when we were broadly mocked as conspiracy theorists –  all we can say is “who gives a shit.”

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Before Powell spoke on Friday bad news appeared; after he spoke Trump shamefully slimed Powell.

China hits U.S. with tariffs on $75 billion worth of goods, including autos – delivering a strategically timed blow as recession warning signs cast doubt on the strength of the U.S. economy…

     The import taxes range from 5 to 10 percent and take effect Sept. 1 and Dec. 15 — the same dates President Trump’s latest tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods are slated to kick in — the Chinese finance ministry said in a statement…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/23/china-hits-us-with-tariffs-billion-worth-goods-reinstates-auto-levies-state-media-report/?noredirect=on

Less than 24 hours before China announced tariffs on US goods, Larry Kudlow stated ‘trade talks with China are going well’.  Team Trump’s credibility is in an ugly bear market.

ESUs plunged 30 handles on China’s tariffs; they rallied into Powell’s speech.  ESUs moved higher when Powell said, “We will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”  But, the Fed Chair did not promise, hint, suggest or infer that the Fed will provide the deep rate cuts that bulls and DJT petulantly demanded.

Powell says there’s no ‘rulebook’ for trade war, pledges to ‘act as appropriate’ to sustain economy

Powell also says the “economy is close to both goals” of price stability and full employment…“Our challenge now is to do what monetary policy can do to sustain the expansion so that the benefits of the strong jobs market extend to more of those still left behind, and so that inflation is centered firmly around 2 percent.”… We are examining the monetary policy tools we have used both in calm times and in crisis, and we are asking whether we should expand our toolkit,”…

    The global growth outlook has been deteriorating since the middle of last year. Trade policy uncertainty seems to be playing a role in the global slowdown and in weak manufacturing and capital spending in the United States,” he said…Setting trade policy is the business of Congress and the Administration, not that of the Fed.”…   https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/powell-jackson-hole-speech.html

Steve Liesman @steveliesman: Mild though it remains, the Jax Hole speech is Powell’s strongest pushback yet on the president’s trade policies. He says the fed can’t bail out the US economy from the impact of the trade war, but it will try.  Policy “cannot provide settled rulebook for int’l trade.”

John Hussman @hussmanjp: Charles Plosser (former Philadelphia Fed President): “Markets are expecting the Fed to ‘sustain the expansion’ when in fact it may not be able to do so. The Fed has to be careful about assuming responsibility for things that it cannot, in fact, control.”

The recent spate of Fed officials debunking the need for a 50bp rate cut or any cut is the Fed as an institution rebuking Trump.  Even the few Fed Presidents that have been pandering to Trump – so they can replace Powell – have muted their dovish braying.

Bulls were looking for an excuse to push ESUs and stocks higher during and after Powell’s slightly dovish speech.  But, ESUs and stocks tanked when Trump went crazier than his usual crazy on Twitter.

@realDonaldTrump (10:57 ET on Friday): As usual, the Fed did NOTHING! It is incredible that they can “speak” without knowing or asking what I am doing, which will be announced shortly. We have a very strong dollar and a very weak Fed. I will work “brilliantly” with both, and the U.S. will do great.  My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi

@realDonaldTrump (10:59 ET on Friday): Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I won’t let that happen! We don’t need China and, frankly, would be farbetter off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA… This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States. Also, I am ordering all carriers, including Fed Ex, Amazon, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!). Fentanyl kills 100,000 Americans a year. President Xi said this would stop – it didn’t. Our Economy, because of our gains in the last 2 1/2 years, is MUCH larger than that of China. We will keep it that way!

Powerful, obscure law is basis for Trump ‘order’ on trade

“For all of the Fake News Reporters that don’t have a clue as to what the law is relative to Presidential powers, China, etc., try looking at the Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977,” Trump tweeted late Friday. “Case closed!”  The act gives presidents wide berth in regulating international commerce during times of declared national emergencies…  https://www.apnews.com/be18b8619cde4658a418dda4f416968a

@Jkylebass: It’s time for US to take our gloves off with the Chinese communist party. @stevenmnuchin1 @SecPompeo It’s high time to SANCTION china development bank (CDB) for evading Iran Sanctions.Throw a stick into the spokes of their highly-levered banking system for crimes committed. All of the big Chinese banks are currently under consent decrees with the US DOJ for money laundering. It’s time we take a few of them off the global payments system (that we control). Let’s see how xi does after that

President Trump meeting with trade team at White House amid tweetstorm that rocked markets

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/president-trump-meeting-with-trade-team-at-white-house-amid-tweetstorm-that-rocked-markets.html

John Hayward @Doc_0: And now, please enjoy as the people who spent years shrieking about an imaginary Russian plot to steal the 2016 election sit quietly, or applaud, whileChina uses politically targeted tariffs to engineer a more Beijing-friendly Democrat administration in 2020.

Fmr Sr Dir for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council, USAF B-2 Stealth Pilot Gen (Ret) Rob Spalding @robert_spalding: Make no mistake. The CCP is attacking America’s farmers in order to preserve their rule by continuing to employ their parasitic economy in the US. I come from a farming family, so I understand how difficult the life can be. The US needs to protect farmers and fight back.

It is quite clear that China is interfering in the 2020 Election.  They are deliberately trying to undermine the US economy in order to remove Trump in 2020 and procure a more friendly administration.

China mouthpiece @HuXijin_GT: Without China’s market of 1.4b people, US farm goods will have nowhere to go, farm land being abandoned, farmers going bankrupt. US energy products will also lose an infinite market. Chinese auto market is already bigger than US’…all of this don’t have to happen.

@Jkylebass: Without the US, china will starve itself of USD. The $500b + of exports to the US will be sourced from elsewhere and china won’t have the working capital to import all of the things they are desperately short (oil, food, base metals, etc). Your propaganda @HuXijin_GT  is a joke.

Trump recognized Xi’s 2020 gambit and responded with extreme prejudice.  An all-out trade war is on.

We opined a few weeks ago that no trade deal with China is the better political position for DJT in 2020.  Team DJT will tie Biden to China, du to his son’s deals with China.  Plus, DJT will keep chirping that China is interfering in the US economy/election secure an easy-on-China president in 2020.

During the final hour of trading on Friday, BoE chief Carney, at Jackson Hole said

  • Business investment is the UK’s biggest headwind
  • Fiscal policy will have to do more to support the economy
  • Called for multipolar reserve currency system
  • Dollar’s dominance raised risk of global liquidity trap
  • Central banks need inflation-target flexibility
  • No-Deal Brexit response would probably be more easing

World needs to end risky reliance on U.S. dollar – BoE’s Carney [Transparent shot at USA/DJT]

Carney warned that very low equilibrium interest rates had in the past coincided with wars, financial crises and abrupt changes in the banking system

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-fed-jacksonhole-carney-idUKKCN1VD28H

ESUs and stocks persistently sank to new lows throughout the afternoon on Friday.

The low for Friday was made 4 minutes before the close.  Then, traders that needed the marks manipulated ESUs 23 handles higher in the final four minutes!  Manipulation to the upside is not only allowed, it’s encouraged.

German Chancellery Also Sees Mild Recession, Spiegel Reports

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/german-chancellery-also-sees-mild-recession-spiegel-reports

ECB’s Weidmann sees no need for economic stimulus – newspaper https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ger

Reefer Yield Curve Madness

For the past few weeks, various and sundry Street actors and fin media types have been bemoaning and pontificating about the US yield curve’s inversion.  Too many commentators these days are dilettantes.

We learned decades ago, that a yield curve inversion must be analyzed in context with the shift in the yield curve.  One must contemplate the YC shift up the Y-axis (yield) when the YC inverts.

Recession watch: What is an ‘inverted yield curve’ and why does it matter?

The yield curve has inverted before every U.S. recession since 1955, although it sometimes happens months or years before the recession starts…

    The yield curve inversion also suggests that investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep cutting short-term interest rates in an effort to boost the economy… A look back at previous downturns shows that yields have typically inverted an average of 18 months before the start of the recession.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/14/recession-watch-what-is-an-inverted-yield-curve-why-does-it-matter/?noredirect=on

In the above article, the analyst said the YC inversion is due to the fact that the market expects further short-term rate cuts.  Normally, this dynamic steepens the YC.  As a contrast and illuminating point, when Volcker meaningfully restricted credit creation starting in October 1979, short-term rates soared; T-Bill yields went above 20% months later.  The 30-year bond yield went above 14.5%.

The points that we are making in reference to the dynamics of what Volcker did: 1) It was the expectation AND the actuality of higher short rates that inverted the YC; 2) the entire yield curve SHIFTED substantially higher, several hundreds of basis points, up the ‘Y’ axis; and 3) The profound magnitude of the YC shift from October 1979 through early 1982 produced two severe recessions and the greatest deflation in at least a century.

The recent YC shift has been negligible.  Furthermore, as DB analysts note in the FT: Since 1980, the average time lag between the yield curve inverting and the economy falling into recession is 21 months… and it can take almost three years… https://www.ft.com/content/bce006d2-f8e2-11e8-8b7c-6fa24bd5409c

A shift in the yield curve will occur for a number of reasons, connected not just with the market’s view on interest rates but also factors such as liquidity and supply and demand… A fund manager adopting a yield curve strategy would have to accurately forecast the direction of the parallel curve shift, as well as the change in the curve spread. This places the approach, in analytical terms, in the same class as interest rate forecasting…   https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/yield-curve

After employing ZIRP to avert financial collapse after the 2008 Crisis, the Fed worried that long term rates were still too high.  So, in order to boost the economy, it did QE to drive long rates lower.  Ergo, it is folly when Fed officials (Bullard on Friday), pundits and the fin media proclaim that the Fed could boost the economy if recession appears with QE 4 – when long rates are already below post-QE 3 levels.

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, when short-term interest rates hit zero, the market and even Fed policy makers did not know what to expect, Bullard said. The Fed ultimately decided to buy bonds to lower long-term bond yields, a program known as quantitative easing.The next time around, “this will all be anticipated by markets” who then might react sooner and ease financial conditions, the St. Louis Fed president said… https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bullard-backs-more-interest-rate-cuts-2019-08-23

The record global debt implies that record low rates are not due to a lack of demand or supply.  It suggests that global liquidity is excessive and more monetary stimulus will not force the already water-boarded market to drink more liquidity.

With 10s and 30s at or near all-time low yields, why is there little stimulus on the real economy?  Why should lower short-term rates provide an economic boost if 10-year and 30-year yields are at record lows?

Germany in Uproar as Negative Rates Threaten Saving Obsession

  • Finance minister looks into possible ban on deposit charges
  • Steps to limits banks’ options could escalate spat with ECB

Any step to limit banks’ options to deal with negative rates would mark an escalation in tensions between the ECB and parts of the German political establishment…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-25/germany-in-uproar-as-negative-rates-threaten-saving-obsessio

An hour after the close on Friday, Trump announced retaliatory tariff hikes on China.

@realDonaldTrump: For many years China (and many other countries) has been taking advantage of the United States on Trade, Intellectual Property Theft, and much more. Our Country has been losing HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS a year to China, with no end in sight.  Sadly, past Administrations have allowed China to get so far ahead of Fair and Balanced Trade that it has become a great burden to the American Taxpayer. As President, I can no longer allow this to happen! In the spirit of achieving Fair Trade, we must Balance this very unfair Trading Relationship. China should not have put new Tariffs on 75 BILLION DOLLARS of United States product (politically motivated!). Starting on October 1st, the 250 BILLION DOLLARS of goods and products from China, currently being taxed at 25%, will be taxed at 30% Additionally, the remaining 300 BILLION DOLLARS of goods and products from China, that was being taxed from September 1st at 10%, will now be taxed at 15%.Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Trump announced a trade deal with Japan on Sunday at the G7 summit in Biarritz, France.  Japan will buy US corn and $7B of other US products.  This is a pittance; but it will help US farmers and thwart China.  Nothing else of substance occurred at the G7.

WaPo [Sunday]: In reversal, Trump says he wishes he’d raised China tariffs higher

Hong Kong protests turn violent again     http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-08/26/c_138337592.htm

China’s Patience Runs Out as Beijing Signals It Has “Responsibility to Intervene” in Hong Kong

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-25/chinas-patience-runs-out-beijing-signals-it-has-responsibility-intervene-hong-kong

Today – The S&P 500 Index on Friday decisively broke to the downside from its Outside Day on Thursday – and it formed during the first hour of trading!

From Friday’s missive: A close below 2900 on the S&P 500 Index would be exceedingly bad for stocks.

Historical note: Really ugly Friday declines usually spill over into Monday.  Who will intervene?

The technical damage on Friday was severe.  The odds are extremely high that many traders and wise guys got caught very long on Friday.  Stocks need to find a level at which real buyers will appear.  Ergo, barring news, stocks need to do more work on the downside before a meaningful rally can develop.

The S&P 500 Index closed below its 50 DMA, 100 DMA and 150 DMA for the first time since June 3.

The S&P 500 Index is hovering just above critical support at 2822-25, the triple lows this month.

A deep and boiling anger’: NBC/WSJ poll finds a pessimistic America despite current economic satisfaction – 70 percent of Americans say they’re angry at the political establishment

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/deep-boiling-anger-nbc-wsj-poll-finds-pessimistic-america-despite-n1045916

 

This is why DJT won in 2016 and should win in 2020, unless Dems find an anti-establishment candidate.

 

Israel Thwarts Large-Scale Attack by Iranian ‘Killer Drones’

In a rare confirmation, the Israel Defense Forces acknowledged striking Iranian targets in Syria to prevent a “pending, large-scale attack of multiple killer drones on Israel.”…

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2019/08/24/israel-thwarts-large-attack-by-iranian-killer-drones/

 

Fox’s @cvpayne: French President Emmanuel Macron inviting Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to France during the G7 gathering is an amazing affront to the world.  Iranian leadership is the greatest sponsor of global terrorism and aggression in the world.

 

@RepMarkMeadows: Andrew McCabe: fired for lying to the FBI, caught by the Inspector General for unauthorized media leaks, and—worst of all—one of the ring-leaders in spreading the debunked and disastrous “Russian collusion” conspiracy theory. His reward? A paid CNN contract. Comical.

 

15 Former Spooks Who Work at CNN and MSNBC Now

https://dailycaller.com/2019/08/23/cnn-msnbc-15-spooks-mccabe/

 

Joe Biden Stumbles over His Words in Iowa Speech [On Thursday]

“My long friend… time friend, and she’s a friend, she’s been my friend, in and out of public life…”

   The video clip earned over a million views on Twitter, and many users on both the right and left reacted with both laughter and worry.  https://dailycaller.com/2019/08/23/joe-biden-stumbles-over-words/

 

On Friday, Biden, speaking at a town hall gathering in Hanover, New Hampshire about his health care plan stated: “We’ll make sure it’s not qualitywe’ll make sure it’s only affordable… If you’re not satisfied we have another option, a high-quality option.”  https://twitter.com/ArthurSchwartz/status/1165003819413135360

 

@MattWolking: Joe Biden on his health care plan: “For folks in the working class that are below 400 they will in fact will increase their premiums… the generosity of the premium tax credit they now get.”

https://twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1165005070657888259

 

‘Imagine what would have happened if Obama had been assassinated?’ Joe Biden shocks New Hampshire crowd… In his final event of the day, Biden spoke about taking away tax breaks for America’s most wealthy, he said: ‘I find most rich people are as patriotic as poor people.’…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7389523/Joe-Biden-shocks-New-Hampshire-crowd-asked-imagine-Obama-assassinated.html

 

[Friday] Biden says 40 were shot at Kent State in 1970, when four students were killed

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-says-40-were-shot-at-kent-state-in-1970-when-four-students-were-killed

 

NBC News’ @mikememoli: Biden asked by a med student about how he’d incentivize keeping rural hospitals open. He says: “Free tuition.”  Then also warns about impact of Medicare for All

Biden veers into foreign policy, noting he’s met most world leaders in capacity as SFRC chair, VP. Then notes he hasn’t met some of the new ones, like the “heartthrob” new PM of UK. Crowd chuckles before he says: “He may be a really good guy.”

 

Joe Biden: ‘Don’t Vote for Me’ If You’re Worried about My Age [76]

https://dailycaller.com/2019/08/25/joe-biden-dont-vote-for-me-worried-about-age/

 

So don’t worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will bring its own worries. Today’s trouble is enough for today. – Matthew 6:34

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

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