AUGUST 27/SILVER THE STAR OF THE SHOW UP 56 CENTS TO $18.18 EVEN ON COMEX EXPIRY DAY//GOLD FOLLOWS SUIT UP $14.50 TO $1541.80// A MAMMOTH PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//DOW DOWN 125 POINTS AND THE NASDAQ DOWN 27 PTS//THE GOLD COMEX WITNESSES A 3RD STRAIGHT CONSIDERABLE QUEUE JUMPING AS OUR BANKER FRIENDS SCRAMBLE FOR METAL//WAR DRUMS BEATING IN ISRAEL AGAINST HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON, HAMAS IN GAZA, AND SHIITE MILITARY SITES IN IRAQ//

GOLD:$1541.80 UP $14.50(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.18 UP 56 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1542.60

 

silver:  $18.17

option trading silver and gold:

We are now entering options expiry week for the comex which ends today , August 27.2019

OTC/ LBMA expires on Friday, the 30th.

Yesterday I reported this to you:

 

“On Thursday night when I got the preliminary and final efp numbers I knew something was up when they reported a massive queue jumping in gold of 503 contracts  or 50300 oz  (1.56 tonnes). On Friday night 896 contracts of jumping queue (2.786 tonnes). You never see this unless there are burning fires elsewhere.  Judging from the Swiss data showing massive imports of gold from Switzerland into England, you kind of know where the fires are located.
It sure looks like we are getting our short squeeze in silver. Tuesday is the final day before Comex options expiry so the day should be exciting to watch.”
Well  I would like to inform you that we had our 3rd straight day of gold queue jumping to the tune of: 138 contracts or 13,800 oz. There is no doubt a huge amount of fires that our banker friends must put out.
On the silver front, today was an extremely rare day.  On comex options expiry day we not only witnessed all of the 17.50 dollar calls in the money but also the 18 dollar calls as silver closed at $18.18. I do not ever recall witnessing such a run up on silver on an options expiry day.
We now await to see if those calls turn into future contracts which may be exercised for true metal…stay tune…

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 1//.263

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,526.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/26/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/28/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 124
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 10
661 C JP MORGAN 1
686 C INTL FCSTONE 70
737 C ADVANTAGE 163 13
905 C ADM 20
991 H CME 125
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 263 263
MONTH TO DATE: 8,665

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 263 NOTICE(S) FOR 26300 OZ (.818 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8665 NOTICES FOR 8665 OZ  (26.95 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1998 for   9,990,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,134 down 236 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10 UP 823

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL  SIZED 284 CONTRACTS FROM 239,093 DOWN TO 238,809…DESPITE THE STRONG 23 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT: 898, DEC: 186 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1084 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1084 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1084 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.00 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 23 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

9.990   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AND WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPREADING  LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER  TOTAL COMPRESSION OF COMEX SILVER DID NOT OCCUR DUE TO THE HUGE DEMAND FOR ALL SILVER CONTRACT MONTHS WHICH DWARFED THE SILVER SPREADING LIQUIDATION.

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

34,669 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 34,669 CONTRACTS) OR 173.35 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1824 CONTRACTS OR 9.123 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  173.35 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 24.78% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1485.97   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 284, DESPITE THE 23 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1084 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD  SIZED: 800 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1094 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 284 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.66 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.196 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 171% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 10,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

AND NOW WE ARE WITHIN A WHISKER OF ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,169  BUT THIS TIME  THE PRICE OF SILVER YESTERDAY WAS $17.18 AND HIGHER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

 

 

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 9.990 MILLION OZ
  2. CLOSE TO THE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 244,169 CONTRACTS (OR 1.228 BILLION OZ/, THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW IN FULL SWING  ONLY FOR SILVER WITH CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION  ACCOMPLISHED IN THAT ENDEAVOUR TODAY…… THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD  STOPS FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH BUT WILL START IN EARNEST ONCE WE ENTER THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. IN SILVER WE WOULD NORMALLY WITNESS A HUGE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST AS WE PROCEED TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER THE DEMAND FOR SILVER HAS BEEN SO GREAT THAT IT DWARFED THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION.

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2,728 CONTRACTS, TO 628,862 ACCOMPANYING THE $0.25 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3483 CONTRACTS:

AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  3483 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 628,862,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7,432 CONTRACTS: 3949 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 3483 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7432 CONTRACTS OR 743,200 OZ OR 23.12 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A TINY GAIN OF $0.25 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 23.12  TONNES!!!!!!THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON . ON TOP OF THIS WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE MASSIVE JUMPING OF QUEUE WHICH TOOK PLACE IN THE GOLD COMEX AREA AGAIN . THIS IS THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW WE HAS WITNESSED THIS!!(BELOW)

.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 173,900 CONTRACTS OR 17,390,000 oz OR 540.90 TONNES (19 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,152 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 540.90 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 540.90/3550 x 100% TONNES =15.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4051.57  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2728 DESPITE THE TINY  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($0.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3483 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3483 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD  SIZED GAIN OF 6211 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

3483 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2728 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 19.32 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.25 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  263 notice(s) filed upon for 26,300 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

AN ABSOLUTE JOKE;!!

A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES OF GOLD

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,32 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY:

 

A NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 284 CONTRACTS from 239,093 DOWN TO 238,809 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 898, DEC: 186  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1084 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 284  CONTRACTS TO THE 1084 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 800 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.000 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST AT 9.990 MILLION OZ//

WE ALSO HAVE CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR SILVER SPREADERS.  HOWEVER DEMAND FOR NEW CONTRACTS WAS JUST TOO GREAT AND IT OVERWHELMED THE LOSS IN OI FROM THOSE SPREADERS.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1084 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.63 POINTS OR 1.35%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 16.26 POINTS OR 0.06%   /The Nikkei closed UP 195.05 POINTS OR 0.96%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1595 /Oil UP TO 54.33 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.28 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1595 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1624 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS  DANGEROUSLY PAST TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China set to increase tear gas production as Hong Kong protests intensify

(zerohedge)

ii)What a riot!! China has figured out Trump: they are still not aware of any calls cited by Trump

(zerohedge)

 

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany

The state elections in two impt states of Brandenburg and Saxony are being held Sept 1 and the alt right party AfD might win them both

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

b)A very important podcast from Daniel Lacalle has he states how the global economy is faltering badly and will face their day of reckoning and this lack of growth has not been caused by the Trump tariff wars

(courtesy Daniel Lacalle/)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Israel/Lebanon/Hezbollah

Israel warns that any Hezbollah attack will bring a reprisal on the whole Lebanese state.  War drums are pounding away!!

(zerohedge)

ii)Iran

Now Iran is to deploy 2 warships to escort commercial vessels trying to unload Iranian oil
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)China’s Zhaojin Mining a fairly small mining operation in China aims to double production of gold by undergoing on oversea acquisitions.

(Reuters)

ii)Copper collapses to a two year low. Copper is a good indicator of global growth and there is just none to be found

(zerohedge)

iii)A great commentary tonight from Steve St Angelo has he writes that all 3 of the top producing silver countries had their production fall this year.

(Steve St Angelo)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA/this morning

The yield curve is not buying the Dow again

(zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Home prices growth slumps to its weakest level in 7 ears. Not a healthy economy

(zero hedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)THE BOND KING HAS SPOKEN: 

his strategy buy sovereign bonds and shun all corporate debt due to the huge overhang of fallen angels BBB bonds

(zerohedge)

b)Michael Snyder is now reporting that insiders are selling 600 million  dollars worth of stock per day in August: the apocalypse is coming

(Michael Snyder)

c)the following is a very important read.  Bill Dudley the Ex NY Fed tells the truth that the Fed is political and it is urging Powell to prevent the Trump re election  by not supporting his tariff wars

a must read…
(zerohedge)

d)The first of many//First customer lawsuit over the 737 Max

(zerohedge)

e)Now we can see first hand how the USA economy is starting to crumble: mortgage defaults are rising for the first time since the 2008 crash

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Weird! Epstein bizarre sexual abuse ignored by both the FBI and NYPD

(zerohedge)

b)Deutsche bank has Trump’s tax returns  but I do not know how on earth they could be released to the crooked anti Trump lawmakers

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2728 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 628,862 ACCOMPANYING THE TINY GAIN  OF $0.25 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3483 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 3483   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3483 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 6211 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3483 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 2728 COMEX CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. WE EXPERIENCED ZERO SHORT COVERING IN GOLD 

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  6211 CONTRACTS OR 621100 OZ OR 19.32 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 351 CONTRACTS as we LOST 1871 contract.  We had 2009 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED 138 contracts or 13,800 oz of gold that will stand for delivery over on this side of the pond. By not morphing over to London, they also forfeit a fiat bonus.

 

The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 313 contracts DOWN TO 2484.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 1433 contracts UP to 51,598.  DECEMBER SAW ITS OI RISE BY 399 CONTRACTS UP TO 465,259

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 263 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  26,300 OZ. (0.818 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 284 CONTRACTS FROM 239,093 UP TO 238,809.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET AUGUST 22/ 244,196, CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY. WE HAD ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING WITH LIMITED SUCCESS. THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF OUR SPREADERS CONTINUED IN EARNEST. HOWEVER DEMAND FOR SILVER OPEN INTEREST WAS SO GREAT IT DWARFED THE LIQUIDATION IN OI. 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 2 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 2 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A FULL 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 13,934 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 45,298 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 262 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 693.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 12,994 CONTRACTS UP TO 154,651.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 335,421  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  437,438  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 27/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

17,682.907 OZ

LOOMIS

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
263 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
(0.818 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
351 contracts
(35100 oz)
1.0917 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8665 notices
8665 OZ
26.95 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Loomis: 17,682.907  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 17,682,907  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/  TODAY: a good amount  arrived

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 1 adjustment today
i) Out of Delaware:  1202.073 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Delaware and this landed into the dealer account
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 263 contract(s) of which 1 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8665) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (351 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (263 x 100 oz per contract) equals 875,300 OZ OR 27.23 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (8665 x 100 oz)  + (351)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (263 x 100 oz )which equals 875,300 oz standing OR 27.23 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We GAINED 138  contracts or an additional 13,800 oz will stand as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 21.167 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.23  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// JUDGING BY THE HUGE SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY IS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  680,548.024 oz or  21.167 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,057,334.392 oz 250.61 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 34 MONTHS 108 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 27 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 851,143.826 oz
CNT
Brinks
HSBC
Int Delaware
Loomis

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,306.971 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
 10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1996 contracts

9,980,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT: 600,306.971 0z

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  600,306,971  oz

 

we had 5 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT: 622,678.680 oz

ii)out of Brinks:  3973.976 oz

iii) Out of HSBC: 129,354.910 oz

iv) Out of Int Delaware: 14,583.160 oz

v) Out of Loomis  80,553.100 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 851,143.826  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  92.892 million

total dealer + customer silver:  311.652 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1998 x 5,000 oz = 9,990,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (2) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1998 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (2)- number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 9,990,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL  STAND AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  167,994 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..liquidation/strong demand)

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 171,155 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 171,155 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 855 million  OZ 122% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.85% ((AUGUST 27/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.22% to NAV (AUGUST 27/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.85%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.48 TRADING 15.04/DISCOUNT 2.87

 

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

AUGUST 27/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 873.32 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 652 TRADING DAYS: 62.06 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 552- TRADING DAYS: A NET 104.59 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

AUGUST 28/2019:

 

 

Inventory 385.440 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.03/ and libor 6 month duration 2.08

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.88%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.03

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.15

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

China’s Zhaojin Mining a fairly small mining operation in China aims to double production of gold by undergoing on oversea acquisitions.

(Reuters)

China’s Zhaojin Mining eyes doubling of gold output via overseas M&A

 Section: 

By Tom Daly and Shivani Singh
Reuters
Monday, August 26, 2019

BEIJING — Zhaojin Mining, one of China’s biggest gold miners, aims to double production of the precious metal as early as 2024 on the back of overseas acquisitions and may look for deals below $500 million, the head of its international arm says.

Shandong-based Zhaojin currently produces around 650,000 ounces (18.43 tonnes) a year of gold, Leo Zhao, managing director of Zhaojin International Mining Co., said at a Global Mining Association of China seminar in Beijing on Thursday.

… 

“Our target in the next five to eight years is … 1.3 million ounces per annum from China and global projects,” Zhao said, noting that half of that output would be from overseas, versus almost zero at present. “It’s challenging but it’s an exciting strategy,” he added.

China’s miners, the traditional drivers of mergers and acquisitions in the gold sector, have made no overseas gold mine acquisitions so far in 2019, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

However, Zhaojin this month agreed to set up a joint venture with Australia-based PCF Capital Group that will identify potential M&A opportunities there. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-mining-zhaojin/chinas-zhaojin-m…

* * *

iii) Other physical stories:

Copper collapses to a two year low. Copper is a good indicator of global growth and there is just none to be found

(zerohedge)

Dr.) Copper Collapses To 2-Year-Low As Global Macro Deteriorates 

Industrial metals such as copper continue to stagnate this year as major funds take an increasingly bearish view on global macro.

The spot price of Comex copper on Friday fell 1.23% to 2.535, the lowest level in at least 115 weeks, dating back to the summer of 2017.

Copper dropped 3.34% this past week amid new fears the US economy is quickly slowing. IHS Markit’s flash reading for the manufacturing purchasing managers index, recorded 49.9 for August on Thursday, the first contraction since 2009. This is an indication a manufacturing recession could be imminent, seems plausible since a freight recession across is already underway; explains how the Trump bump in the economy has been exhausted and reveals further why President Trump is demanding 100bps rate cuts, quantative easing, and emergency payroll taxes: it’s because the cycle is rolling over. We even mentioned last week how President Trump might hold an emergency meeting next week with advisors and top donors about how a mild recession could materialize before the 2020 election.

In the last 89 days, copper is down nearly 15% from its high in April.

 

On a longer perspective, copper crashed -58% from early 2011 to January 2016. Copper prices eventually troughed at 1.94 around mid-January 2016, as global central banks pumped the world with liquidity in 2016, and then the Trump administration in 2017 and 2018 injected fiscal stimulus into the domestic economy, which helped copper prices soar 62% until June 2018. Prices then plunged into late summer and fall of 2018, by 21% as the world realized a global slowdown was developing.

The rollercoaster in prices, up and downs, created a massive head and shoulder pattern that could be completed in 2H19, or at least some time in 1H20. This would be due to another growth scare that could shock world markets. If copper was to break the head and shoulders neckline, a possible retest of 2016 levels, around 2-2.15, could be likely.

In textbook commodity market fashion, the price slump has been associated with a J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI plunging to sub 50, a harbinger that a global manufacturing recession could be imminent, or is already underway.

The Wall Street Journal said, “Net bearish bets on copper in futures markets hit their highest level in around three years earlier this month, a sign that investors have grown increasingly pessimistic on the outlook for the metal in the midst of slowing global growth and a weakening Chinese economy.”

China is the world’s largest copper user, accounting for almost 50% of global demand.

So when copper prices slump, it’s also a proxy of the health of the Chinese economy.

Earlier last week, Fathom Consulting, a global independent macro research consultancy, said its proprietary China Momentum Indicator 2.0has slowed to 4.6% in June, the lowest reading since Aug. 2016.

There is also a growing gap between the China Momentum Indicator 2.0 at 4.6% and official GDP data at 6.2%. Might suggest China’seconomy hasn’t yet bottomed, could continue to decline through 2H19 into 1H20.

And on Friday, to make matters worse for the global macro outlook, China’s Ministry of Finance said in a statement that it would levy retaliatory tariffs on another $75BN in US goods with rates anywhere between 5 and 10%, with the tariffs set to be implemented in two batches, one at midnight on Sept 1 and another at midnight on Dec 15.

Additionally, China said it would resume 25% tariffs on US autos, stating that “China’s adoption of tariff-adding measures is a forced move to deal with US unilateralism and trade protectionism.”

Then in a retaliatory move, President Trump announced starting Oct 1, the existing 25% tariffs on $250BN in Chinese goods would rise to 30%, and the 10% tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods set to begin on Sept 1 will be 15%.

With that being said, the global macro outlook looks set to deteriorate further into 1H20, sending copper prices tumbling much further.

end
A great commentary tonight from Steve St Angelo has he writes that all 3 of the top producing silver countries had their production fall this year.
(Steve St Angelo)

Silver Price Surges Higher As Mine Supply Falls In Top Producing Countries

3 926

“…a 15% decline in silver production…”

by Steve St Angelo of SRSrocco Report

As the silver price rally continues, mine supply from three of the top producing countries fell significantly this year.  Peru, Chile, and Mexico all reported declines in silver mine supply in the first half of the year, with Peru suffering the largest dropoff.  With these three countries accounting for 45% of total global silver production, a reduction in mine supply can impact the overall market.

According to the mine supply data reported by each country, Peru’s silver production is down 10% in the first half of the year, while Chile fell 7% and Mexico was lower by 4% (Jan-May). The total decline in silver production from these three countries in just the first half of the year is 12 million oz (Moz):

As we can see from the chart, Peru’s silver mine supply for the first half of 2019 fell 216 metric tons, Mexico declined 113 metric tons and Chile lost 44 metric tons versus the same period last year.  As I stated, Peru and Chile’s silver production data was for the first six months while Mexico’s figures were for Jan-May.  Mexico will likely update their data for June within the next week.

I also wanted to provide the actual data reports released by these three countries so that you can see for yourself the silver production declines in each:

Here we can see that silver production reported by Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mines shows a 10.46% decline in silver (plata) mine supply from Jan-Jun.  Next, Chile shows a 7.2% decline in its domestic silver mine supply in the first half of the year while gold production increased 13%:

And lastly, according to Mexico’s INEGI, the country’s silver production fell 113 metric tons, or 4.4% in the first five months of 2019:

Here are the rankings of the top 10 silver producing countries in the world in 2019, according to the World Silver Survey (figures are rounded):

  1. Mexico = 197 Moz
  2. Peru = 145 Moz
  3. China = 115 Moz
  4. Russia = 43 Moz
  5. Chile = 42 Moz
  6. Bolivia = 40 Moz
  7. Poland = 40 Moz
  8. Australia = 35 Moz
  9. USA = 28 Moz
  10. Argentina = 26 Moz

I could not get the total mine supply data for Russia, but its largest primary silver mining company, Polymetal, reported a 15% decline in silver production for 1H 2019 vs. the same period last year. So, it seems that many countries are showing declines in silver mine supply this year, right when the silver price has broken above a 6-year resistance level.

Polymetal’s silver production in 2018 accounted for nearly 60% of Russia’s total silver production that year.  So, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out with these top silver producing countries.

Lastly, I will be putting out a new video this weekend on the SILVER MARKET PRICE action. It looks like silver has broken above that important $17.25 level with the markets selling off big time along with the race for Government Bonds to go further into negative interest rates

end
Another good interview with James Anderson and Chris Marcus
(courtesy Chris Marcus/Anderson)

GOLD/SILVER

Silver Supply Is Falling – With James Anderson

With the price of silver barely above the miners cost of production, not surprisingly, the silver supply has been falling.

Will that continue? And what should you watch out for?

Click to watch the video to find out!

Chris Marcus

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1595/ GETTING  DANGEROUSLY PAST TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1624   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 38.63 POINTS OR 1.35%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 16.26 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 195.04 POINTS OR 0.96%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.59/Euro RISES TO 1.1206

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.26/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.33 and Brent: 59.28

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.68%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.24% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.11%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.92: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.84

3k Gold at $1532.00 silver at: 17.98   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 46/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.55

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.75 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9801 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0884 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.68%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.50% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.99%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8293..

S&P Futures Drift Higher Unaware That 2s10s Inverts Most Since Financial Crisis

In what has been a relatively quiet session, US equity futures and European stocks first drifted lower as trade war concerns dominated the early part of the trading session when China’s Communist Party flagship newspaper, People’s Daily, said the U.S. shouldn’t misjudge the nation’s ability and determination to firmly retaliate if America follows through with higher tariffs, before rebounding following positive auto-relative news out of China.

 

US equity futures faded drifted lower into the European open, erasing much of the last minute burst higher noted at the Monday close…

 

… before climbing today’s wall of worry, which as Robeko Jeroen Blokland showed, consisted of stumbling Italian coalition, German economic fears and geopolitical concerns about Iran.

 

Europe’s Stoxx 600 erased a decline of as much as 0.3% as traders shrugged off earlier data showed Germany was on the brink of recession as final Q2 GDP printed at -0.1%…

 

… with carmakers surging after Xinhua reported that China will ease car-purchase restrictions, and “actively” support purchases of new-energy vehicles in some cities. According to the report, China is considering relaxing and removing restrictions on auto purchases, looking through the full release it appears to be on the domestic front referring to restrictions around the circulation of used cars.

The Stoxx 600 autos rallied 1.1% for a second daily advance, with Porsche, Fiat Chrysler and Volkswagen up 1.3% or more.  Suppliers gaining include Pirelli +1.6%, Valeo +1.5%, Hella +1%. The Stoxx 600 traded up 0.3% last, with carmakers as top performers, offsetting declines in media and insurance shares.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, led by technology and consumer discretionary firms, after Trump softened his tone toward China, allaying fears for a further escalation of trade tensions. Most markets in the region were up, with China and Indonesia leading gains. The Topix added 0.8%, with technology companies and automakers among the biggest boosts. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.4%, nearly erasing Monday losses, as 360 Security Technology and large financial firms offered strong support. However, as Bloomberg notes, Chinese companies have dialed back dollar-denominated junk bond sales just as demand for the riskier assets weakens. India’s Sensex rose 0.2%, heading for a third day of gains, with ICICI Bank and Larsen & Toubro advancing. The Indian government is deciding whether to use a 1.76 trillion-rupee ($24.4 billion) windfall from the central bank to reduce its borrowing or stimulate the economy.

In Hong Kong, Chief Executive Carrie Lam said her government can handle unrest without assistance from Chinese forces, and still wants to hold talks with protesters despite a flare-up in violence.

But the biggest risk which algos have yet to notice is that the 2s10s curve inverted as much as -2.5bps this morning, the most inverted the curve has been since the financial crisis.

 

The reason behind today’s inversion: the 10Y yield drifted lower by 3bps to 1.505% while the 2Y was down just 1.3bps pushing the yield curve to the biggest inversion in 12 years. Meanwhile, German Bunds settled down after a few wobbles alongside Gilts and US Treasuries with latest Chinese commentary on trade still suggesting that relations are strained and tetchy compared to President Trump’s more cordial view of the current situation. However, BTPs have pulled back quite sharply from just a few ticks away from 144.00 towards 143.00 on more political party bickering in Rome and another delayed meeting before President Mattarella finally calls time and has to defer to another election.

While futures levitated higher, it was on zero volumes as investors remained cautious over this week’s dialing down of trade tensions as fresh evidence emerged that increased protectionism is weighing more on the global economy – and to blame for Germany’s deepening manufacturing recession. Sentiment remains fragile, according to Bloomberg, as investors remember that previous periods of trade calm have been quickly ended by surprise escalations.

“August may be coming to a close, but volatility does not appear to be going anywhere,” Erik Knutzen, chief investment officer, multi-asset class, at Neuberger Berman, said in a note Tuesday. “As the late cycle continues, markets will likely remain sensitive to the daily news flow, with many letting headlines drive short-term decisions.”

In FX, the yen gained the most among G10 currencies as skepticism sets in about the prospect of any future U.S.-China trade negotiations. Haven assets rose after China’s Communist Party flagship newspaper People’s Daily says the U.S. shouldn’t misjudge the nation’s ability and determination to firmly retaliate if America follows through with higher tariffs. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended losses after the London open. The euro gained with Italian bonds on hopes the country could avert fresh elections despite reports that negotiations had hit a snag, while the pound rose for a third day in four as the opposition Labour party stepped up efforts to stave off a no-deal Brexit.

Elsewhere, oil futures edged higher after Trump struck a more conciliatory tone on the trade war with China. Gold pushed above $1,530 an ounce.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,879.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 370.61
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to -0.673%
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 150.95
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 486.61
  • Nikkei up 1% to 20,456.08
  • Topix up 0.8% to 1,489.69
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.06% to 25,664.07
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 2,902.19
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 37,568.93
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,471.22
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 1,924.60
  • Euro up 0.05% to $1.1108
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.978%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 0.111%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $59.12/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,530.84
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 97.93

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • A collapse in exports pushed Europe’s largest economy to the brink of recession in the second quarter, in a sign that an increasingly hostile trade war between the U.S. and China is at least partially to blame for Germany’s deepening manufacturing malaise
  • Trump left the G-7 summit on Monday taking a softer tone toward China, just days after spooking financial markets with another escalation in their trade war
  • Hong Kong’s leader said her government can handle unrest without assistance from Chinese forces, and still wants to hold talks with protesters despite a flare up in violence
  • Iran’s top officials all but ruled out talks with the U.S. a day after President Donald Trump extended his most expansive offer yet to the Islamic Republic. The U.S. must lift sanctions on Iran if it wants to negotiate, President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday

Asian stock markets were higher as they followed suit to the rebound across their global peers after US President Trump provided a more conciliatory tone at the G7 regarding US-China trade, while he was also optimistic about reaching a deal with EU and was open to meeting Iran President Rouhani under the right circumstances. ASX 200 (+0.5%) was led by the tech sector amid trade hopes and as retailers cheered encouraging earnings from Wesfarmers, while Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) rode on the currency wave and eyed a reclaim of the 20.5k level. Shanghai Comp. (+1.4%) was underpinned after US President Trump’s softer tone on China in which he suggested that negotiations will begin shortly and thinks a deal will be reached. Furthermore, the PBoC injected liquidity through reverse repos and Chinese Industrial Profits returned to growth, although Hang Seng (Unch.) lagged amid a deluge of earnings, ongoing unrest and continued contraction in both Imports and Exports. Finally, 10yr JGBs weakened amid the improvement in risk sentiment and as prices homed in on the 155.00 level to the downside, although it eventually found some mild support following improved demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for super-long JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • India Is Said to Mull Cutting Borrowings After Record Windfall
  • Hedge Funds Betting on Yen Strength Have One Implacable Foe
  • Iran Spurns U.S. Talks as Rouhani Says No to Photo-Op With Trump

European equities are mixed [Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%] following on from a mostly higher Asia-Pac handover as optimism surrounding President Trump’s conciliatory tone somewhat waned. Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.0%) outperforms its peers as the Italian political landscape seems to be shifting away from a snap election, with a PD/5SM coalition seemingly materialising, albeit some sticking points remain around Conte’s role. Sectors are also mixed with the energy sector outperforming amid price action in the oil complex, whilst consumer discretionary follows a close second amid reports that China considers relaxing and removing restrictions on auto purchases, albeit it appears to be on the domestic front referring to restrictions around the circulation of used cars. Nonetheless, the European car and auto supplier index rose 1.0% amid hopes of spurred activity in China. In terms if individual movers, G4S (+1.9%) and E.ON (+1.5%) shares are supported by positive broker moves at RBC and Barclays respectively. Also of note, US judge ruled against Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in a landmark opioid case in Oklahoma. JNJ have been ordered to pay USD 572mln; however, the fine is less than investors had feared it may be, thus the Co. are +1.9% in the pre-market.

Top European News

  • Weidmann Revisits Dr. No Stance as ECB Stimulus Decision Nears
  • Siemens, GM Fuel Bond-Sales Rebound as Market Wakes After Lull
  • In Switzerland, the Trade War Is Mixing Up a Painful Cocktail
  • Norway’s $1 Trillion Wealth Fund Wants a Bigger Bite of Big Tech

In FX, not quite all change down under, but there has been shift in cross-currents to the detriment of the Aussie vs its Antipodean peer with Aud/Nzd back under 1.0600 and Aud/Usd slipping back below 0.6750. Comments from RBA’s Debelle overnight about the potential for further Aussie depreciation are weighing alongside guidance suggesting that other policy options would have to be mulled if the OCR was lowered to 0.5% (from 1% at present) and more stimulus is needed. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry continues to deny reports that calls were made to US trade negotiators over the weekend and maintains that Beijing will respond to additional US tariffs, but Nzd/Usd is holding up better between 0.6397-61.

  • JPY/GBP/EUR – All firmer vs the Dollar as the DXY loses grip of the 98.000 handle again and Yen retains an underlying safe-haven bid above 106.00 where decent option expiries reside (1.2 bn) as a counterweight to similar size interest at 105.00 (1.1 bn). Meanwhile, Cable is rebounding from the low 1.2200 area to 1.2250+ and Eur/Gbp has retreated from just shy of 0.9100 as Brexit deal hopes vie with expectations that Italy could be on the verge of forming a new Government coalition and avoid a snap election. However, talks between the 5SM and PD to that end are contingent on the former party’s insistence that PM Conte is reinstalled and Eur/Usd appears reluctant to rally too far from the 1.1100 mark in advance.
  • CAD/CHF – The Loonie and Franc are narrowly mixed against the Greenback, with the former recovering from recent lows and meandering between 1.3257-28 amidst firmer crude prices and technical resistance providing support vs expiries forming resistance (1.3260 Fib and 1.3 bn at the 1.3200 strike respectively). Conversely, Usd/Chf is back up around 0.9800 and Eur/Chf is closer to 1.0900 than 1.0850 in wake of latest weekly updates showing record high Swiss sight deposits.
  • SEK – The Swedish Krona is outperforming on the back of supportive data in the form of household spending and trade over mixed PPI, with Eur/Sek down around 10.7000 vs 10.7550+ at one stage, while Eur/NOK straddles 10.0000 in tighter parameters.
  • EM – The steady rise in official Usd/Cny fixes continues, but the on-shore and off-shore Yuans are still trading considerably weaker than the official rate despite Chinese bank intervention to calibrate the declines. Indeed, the former closed at 7.1670 compared to 7.0810 and Usd/Cnh is currently around 7.1725 even though reports are circulating that China may relax and/or remove restrictions on auto purchases.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures have come off worst levels but remain in largely side-ways trade with little by way of catalysts to influence price action thus far. The benchmarks have been fluctuating on either side of 54/bbl and 59/bbl respectively throughout most of the session after finding bases at 53.60/bbl and 58.60/bbl. Ahead of the 12th September JMMC meeting, the committee noted that healthy oil demand and slowing global oil inventory growth should lead to significant draws in the second half of this year. The JMMC also noted that average July compliance among members stood at 159%, +22ppts M/M. Looking further ahead, the committee notes that the forecast for oil market fundamentals by major forecasters remains robust in 2019 and 2020. Elsewhere, gold prices have retreated from overnight highs but remain comfortably above the 1500/oz mark with little news-flow to sway prices. Copper posts mild gains, albeit more on the back of a slightly softer Buck. Finally, Chinese steel fell in excess of 3%, declining the most since November amid fears of weakening demand.

DB’s Jim Reid, who is back from vacation, concludes the overnight wrap

So first day back in two and a half weeks after a lovely holiday in the Alps. It’s nice that the first thing I do in the mornings again now is the EMR and all the overnight surprises that brings rather than double nappy duty and all the nighttime surprises that brings. Please don’t tell my wife but the best moment of my time off was undoubtedly the climax of the third test match of the Ashes two days ago. As a global daily I’d imagine 80-90% of the readers would have been blissfully unaware of this greatest English Ashes cricketing victory of all time, only 6 weeks after the previous greatest game of all time where England won the World Cup. It truly is a majestic summer for cricket in England in spite of the frailties of our team.

The frailties of markets have been exposed in my absence led by the deepening trade war, and the US yield curve inversion claiming its final and in my opinion most important victim – namely 2s10s. Given there hasn’t been a single lead indicator as good as the yield curve at predicting US downturns in the past 70 years, then the inversion has to be taken very seriously. My views on this have been well documented but feel free to use “ Yield Curve 101 ” from last year for more on this.

Turning to yesterday’s news now. The trade war again drove market action, this time in a supportive way. President Trump told reporters that “China called last night our top trade people and said let’s get back to the table.” Though no one in the US administration could offer specifics on the calls, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not confirm them, the change in tone was enough to push risk assets higher. Trump said that “we’re having meaningful talks, much more meaningful than I would say at any time” and also predicted “we’re going to make a deal.” This apparent optimism helped the S&P 500 to end +1.12% higher, while the NASDAQ and DOW gained +1.32% and +1.05%, respectively. Before Trump’s remarks, S&P 500 futures had opened -1.58% lower, in their first trading since the US increased tariffs on Friday, on top of the -2.58% drop from Friday.

To quickly recap that yo-yoing trade action from the end of last week now for those who have also been on holidays or have understandably struggled to keep up. Markets were pressured overnight on Thursday as China expanded tariffs on another $75 billion of imports from the US, in retaliation for the US’s announced tariffs earlier this month. Those duties will be at 5-10% and will take effect on either 1 September or 15 December, depending on the product, thus mirroring the US’s timetable. President Trump responded by escalating the trade war even further, first saying that the US “would be far better off without” China and then declaring “our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China.” The S&P 500 dropped -2.58% on Friday, with semiconductor stocks, who disproportionately rely on Chinese supply chains, down -4.36%. After markets closed, Trump announced a suite of across-the-board tariff hikes on China, taking the existing set of taxed products from a rate of 25% to 30% and increasing the rate on the duties due later this year from 10% to 15%. So most of the commentary over the weekend was that yesterday was going to be horrible for markets. However Mr Trump made his much more positive trade comments three minutes before Europe opened, completely changing the complexion of the day.

Eventually the STOXX 600 ended -0.02% lower, and with London closed, trading volumes were 66% below normal. Other European indexes were similarly muted, though bank stocks did gain +1.00%. Moves in bonds were also subdued, with Bund yields rising +0.9bps and BTPs up +0.5bps. Treasury yields rose slightly, up +0.3bps to 1.54% although 2s10s stayed marginally inverted. Cash HY credit spreads were -6bps tighter in the US but flat in Europe with most London traders out. The dollar rallied +0.45%, appreciating against both DM and EM currencies, while gold gained +0.16% to a fresh six-year high of $1,529.

This morning in Asia, markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+1.25%), Shanghai Comp (+1.68%), Kospi (+0.71%) and Hang Seng (+0.10%) all up. In FX, the Japanese yen is trading up +0.44% this morning while the Chinese onshore yuan is trading down -0.13% to 7.1603. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flattish while WTI is up +0.65%. In terms of overnight data releases Japan’s July services PPI came in one tenth lower than consensus at +0.5% yoy.

We also saw some more trade headlines overnight with China’s People’s Daily saying in a commentary today that the US shouldn’t misjudge China’s ability and determination to firmly retaliate if the US follows through with higher tariffs while adding that anyone who wants to use maximum pressure to force China to accept unreasonable demands is doomed to fail. The commentary also added that, facing maximum pressure from the US, China maintains a rational and measured attitude, and will never cave on major matters of principle.

As for economic data, the highlight was the durables goods figures from the US. While the headline measure rose +2.1% mom compared to expectations for 1.2%, the more important core orders rose only 0.4%. That beat expectations for 0.0%, but the prior month was revised down by 0.6pp, leaving the overall trend roughly flat and taking the yoy figure to -0.5%, its first negative reading since November 2016. Core shipments, a direct input into the GDP figures, fell -0.7% mom. That will likely drag down third quarter GDP trackers a touch. In Europe, the only major data release was the German IFO survey, which fell to 94.3 from 95.7. Based on the historical link between the survey and GDP growth, that print would be equal to a contraction of -0.6% qoq. Our economists are not that bearish, but they do expect Germany to enter a technical recession this quarter.

Data releases for the day includes Germany’s final Q2 GDP and France’s August confidence indicators. Meanwhile in the US, we get the Q2 house price index, June FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic house price index along with the August Richmond Fed manufacturing index and Conference board confidence indicators.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.63 POINTS OR 1.35%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 16.26 POINTS OR 0.06%   /The Nikkei closed UP 195.05 POINTS OR 0.96%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1595 /Oil UP TO 54.33 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.28 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1595 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1624 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS  DANGEROUSLY PAST TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China set to increase tear gas production as Hong Kong protests intensify

(zerohedge)

China To Increase Tear Gas Production Amid Escalating Hong Kong Protests

China is expected to expand its production capacity of tear gas and other crowd-control weapons, according to the South China Morning Post.

The report says China doesn’t currently supply the Hong Kong Police Force, but with the out of control civil unrest in the region, tear gas demand is expected to jump in the near term which could leave Chinese producers of the gas in an excellent position.

Mainland tear gas production began in the 1990s, and over the last decade, riot police have used tear gas in high-profile demonstrations, including protests in Wukan village in the southern province of Guangdong in 2011 and 2016.

Made-in-China tear gas has been exported to several countries abroad.

Thailand’s political crisis in 2012 forced the Royal Thai Police to fire Chinese tear gas canisters at protestors. The gas was even used during the Arab spring and at anti-government demonstrations in Sudan and Venezuela.

Analysts at Research & Markets believe the Chinese tear gas industry is likely to grow 7.4% between this year and 2025, generating around $811 million in market value over the six years.

The entire industry could be valued at $10 billion by 2022, according to a report by Allied Market Research, with China expected to be one of the hottest markets “due to strong economic growth, increased military expenditure, rapid industrial development, and growing civil unrest situations.”

Jinjian Police Equipment Manufacturing Company manufactured 20,000 tear gas hand grenades last year, according to a salesman named Han.

“Most clients are from home, but there were also foreign buyers and trading companies that eventually resold the goods abroad,” he said. “As far as I know, some of our grenades went to Algeria.”

Omega Research Foundation in 2014 said Chinese firms making crowd control weapons had quadrupled in the past decade to 134, with 48 offering products for export.

As part of a 2016 Chinese government acquisition process to supply the ministry with tear gas, 16 companies were chosen across the country to fulfill the orders. By 2018, 50 companies were bidding on contracts to provide the government with tear gas.

In the last several months, the increasing use of tear gas, rubber bullets, flashbangs, bean bag rounds, and pepper spray by the Hong Kong Police Force against anti-government protests have put Chinese firms into an excellent position to capitalize on the turmoil.

Hong Kong police have so far fired 1,800 rounds of tear gas this year, which it’s long-term supplier, Britain, pulled out of contracts in June over “concerns about human rights abuses.”

Tear gas is banned from the modern battlefield but is permitted by the Chemical Weapons Convention for domestic crowd control, which suggests that China could soon be exporting the gas to Hong Kong.

A saleswoman at state-owned Henan Ordnance Special Equipment Company, one of the 50 contracted tear gas suppliers, said there are some restrictions on exports.

“Foreign buyers have to provide a whole set of documents, like the end-users’ information and licenses, as well as relevant approvals from the Chinese police,” she said.

With China’s added capacity to make more tear gas coming online in the near term, it could soon supply Hong Kong as the political turmoil deepens.

end

What a riot!! China has figured out Trump: they are still not aware of any calls cited by Trump

(zerohedge)

Beijing Says It’s Still Not Aware Of Calls Cited By Trump

In what will likely be remembered as one of his more desperate and transparent bids to start a fire under the market, President Trump tweeted early Monday morning that his team had received multiple calls from Beijing about the prospects for restarting trade talks. However, China swiftly denied this, and insisted that it had no knowledge of any calls going out to the Trump Administration.

And on Tuesday, more than 24 hours after the supposed ‘olive branch’ was offered, China’s Foreign Minister clarified that it it still isn’t aware of any calls to President Trump’s camp, like the one the president described in his tweet.

A spokesman for the foreign ministry also complained about the US’s ‘regretful’ decision to move ahead with raising tariffs again.

Speaking to Bloomberg, a spokesman for the foreign ministry said he wasn’t aware of any detente between Washington and Beijing.

“I’m not aware of that,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular briefing in Beijing on Tuesday.

“Regretfully the U.S. has announced its decision to add new tariffs on Chinese products. Such maximum pressure will hurt both sides and is not constructive at all.”

Trump famously said Monday that the prospects for a deal were better now than at any time in the recent past, though the market largely ignored him as Chinese sources continued to insist that the relationship between the two sides remained strained.

Hu Xijin, the Global Times editor-in-chief, tweeted that, to the best of his knowledge, the two sides hadn’t spoken at all in recent days.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Based on what I know, Chinese and US top negotiators didn’t hold phone talks in recent days. The two sides have been keeping contact at technical level, it doesn’t have significance that President Trump suggested. China didn’t change its position. China won’t cave to US pressure.

During a briefing on Tuesday, Geng reiterated China’s view, saying it hoped “the US can exercise restraint, come back to reason and create conditions for our consultation based on mutual respect equality and mutual benefit.”

Meanwhile, China’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, said Monday that China is “willing to solve the problem through consultation and cooperation with a calm attitude.”

But the People’s Daily warned that the US “shouldn’t misjudge” China’s determination to retaliate if the US follows through with its plans to raise tariffs.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany

The state elections in two impt states of Brandenburg and Saxony are being held Sept 1 and the alt right party AfD might win them both

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

AfD Might Win Two German State Elections, Saxony & Brandenburg, On Sept 1st

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

State elections in the German states of Brandenburg and Saxony are on September 1. AfD could win both of them.

The anti-immigration, anti-euro AfD party took the lead in Brandenburg in three of the last five polls in Brandenburg and is within striking distance in Saxony.

 

Brandenburg Polls

Saxony Polls

CDU pulled ahead in the tow most recent polls but with so many parties in play, the results are within the margin of error of an AfD win.

The Local asks Could the far-right AfD really win in upcoming German state elections?

All eyes are on eastern Germany as elections take place in Saxony and Brandenburg on Sunday, September 1st.

And, for the first time in German history, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) could win in state elections – and make it extremely difficult for the established parties to form a government.

The elections will also send shockwaves to Berlin where the so-called grand coalition between Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) is already on shaky grounds.

Brandenburg’s government is currently run by a coalition between the SPD and The Left, who have governed together since 2009, with Dietmar Woidke from the Social Democrats as state premier.

Parties have said they will not work with the AfD, so after the vote they will be scrambling around to try and form a coalition that would stop the group from coming to power.

The AfD in Brandenburg is making waves over their use of campaign posters – not for the first time. For this election, the slogan is “Wende 2.0”. Wende (turnaround) describes the period of political change when the Berlin Wall fell and Germany was reunified. Many have slammed the party for appropriating German history for their own gain.

With slogans such as “Vollende die Wende” (complete the turnaround), the party is implying that if voters opt for them, they can finish the work of those who led the Peaceful Revolution.

The AfD has also been slammed for displaying former SPD Chancellor Willy Brandt on its electoral campaign posters.

The posters show Brandt captioned with his quote: “Dare to be more democratic!” Underneath the caption is the AfD’s logo alongside “Vote for the AfD!” and “We’re writing history!”

Choking on More Europe

Even Germany is choking on more Europe.

It’t going to take a strange coalition to form a majority after the next election.

END

A very important podcast from Daniel Lacalle has he states how the global economy is faltering badly and will face their day of reckoning and this lack of growth has not been caused by the Trump tariff wars

(courtesy Daniel Lacalle/)

Lacalle: A Day Of Reckoning Looms For The Global Economy

European and Asian economic data is deteriorating, says economist and author Daniel Lacalle.

“I’d call right now the day of reckoning,” Lacalle says, in this video excerpt of our soon-to-be released podcast In The Arena.

“The entire message from mainstream consensus is ‘Yes there was a global slowdown,’ but using the trade war as an excuse.”

Lacalle argues that the global growth slowdown has absolutely nothing to do with the trade war and says the trend in economic data around the world suggests Wall Street estimates for global growth are still too high.

“We’re now in the reality check period,” Lacalle says.

“Now, the risk of recession is starting to build up.”

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Lebanon/Hezbollah

Israel warns that any Hezbollah attack will bring a reprisal on the whole Lebanese state.  War drums are pounding away!!

(zerohedge)

Israel Warns Any Hezbollah Attack Will Bring “Reprisal On Whole Lebanese State”

There’s been a flurry of threats and counter-threats after pro-Iran allies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq were all hit in suspected Israeli strikes in the space of less than 24 hours, signalling a new aggression out of Tel Aviv and willingness to risk yet another major Middle East war. Indeed Lebanon’s southern border with Israel is heating up once again in the worst tensions since the devastating 2006 war. 

Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to shoot down any Israeli aircraft violating Lebanon’s sovereign airspace after early Sunday a pair of drones targeted Hezbollah offices in south Beirut, and further after a follow-up drone strike reached deep into Lebanon, killing a Palestinian paramilitary commander (of the PFLP-GC) in the Bekaa Valley.

“Hezbollah will endeavor to down all Israeli drones, which may violate Lebanon’s airspace,” Nasrallah pledged in a televised speech. “The era of the Israeli military’s undeterred attacks on Lebanon has come to an end. Hezbollah will tolerate no more Israeli drones penetrating Lebanese airspace,” Nasrallah said.

Simultaneously, Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Monday said the drone strikes amount to a “declaration of war”and convened an emergency meeting of the country’s top military and security chiefs.

Meanwhile in a potential return to the precise lead-up to the month-long 2006 war, which saw the Israel Defense Forces conduct a heavy bombing campaign across southern Lebanon all the way into Beirut, including the international airport, Tel Aviv is now signaling its forces won’t differentiate between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state.

This according to Axios’ Barak Ravid, who described a phone call between Pompeo and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri:

Israeli officials tell me Netanyahu told Pompeo in their phone call on Sunday that he should convey to Hariri that if Hezbollah attacks Israel, Israel won’t differentiate between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government and will retaliate against the Lebanese state as a whole.

Pompeo had over the weekend expressed support for Israel’s ability to “defend itself” from the encroaching “Iran threat”. Specifically during the latest weekend Israeli strikes on Syria officials claimed to have thwarted an Iran-backed “killer drone attack” being planned. 

In 2006 Israel waged “total war” on Lebanon, bombing cities, villages, roads, and infrastructure in its failed attempt to root out Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, during the evening hours (local time) along the Israeli-Lebanon border the IDF has reportedly been releasing flares over the area amid concerns Hezbollah could be ready to launch an attack.

Nasrallah during his Sunday speech warned that the Israeli military would soon face a reprisal attack.

“I say to the Israeli army along the border, from tonight be ready and wait for us,” he said. “What happened yesterday will not pass.”

“We will not allow the clock to be turned back. We will not allow Lebanon to be violated by bombardment, killing or explosions, nor the violation of sanctities. This for us is a red line,” Nasrallah said.

He was specifically echoing words used by Israeli officials during the 2006 war, who said they would unleash destruction on Lebanon which would “turn back the clock” on its national development.

end
Iran
Now Iran is to deploy 2 warships to escort commercial vessels trying to unload Iranian oil
(zerohedge)

Iran Deploys 2 Warships To Escort Commercial Vessels As Zarif Flies To Beijing After G-7

The threshold to an armed conflict around the Persian Gulf just got even smaller.

On Monday, Iran said it had deployed two warships – a destroyer and a helicopter carrier – to protect the country’s commercial vessels around the Gulf of Aden, located between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa, and Persian Gulf region amid a growing US-driven military build-up in the volatile region, which recently culminated with several tanker seizures on both sides, the navy times reports.

Iran’s brand new destroyer Sahand and the supply ship/replenishment carrier Kharg which has a helicopter pad and services as logistics support, were deployed to the Gulf of Aden and Sea of Oman and tasked with escorting ships in international waters.

The “Sahand” commissioned in December 2018, is Iran’s most advanced home-made warship. It has a stealth hull and can travel a further than the previous class destroyers without refueling. It is equipped with surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles as well as anti-aircraft batteries and radar and radar evading capabilities.
Iranian naval forces attend a Dec. 1 inauguration ceremony for the destroyer Sahand, in Bandar Abbas, Iran

Tehran’s decision to escort its cargo vessels comes at a time of escalating tensions in the Gulf, with US and UK warships operating in and around the Persian Gulf under the “defensive” premise that Iran is the aggressor behind June’s attacks on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Accusing Tehran of ‘sponsoring terrorism’ and running a secret nuclear program, Washington has beefed up its military in the region with more troops and hardware, including an aircraft carrier and bombers.

In early July, the Iranian tanker Adrian Darya, previously known as Grace 1, was seized off the coast of Gibraltar for allegedly carrying oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions. It was later released, despite US demands that it be detained again. In retaliation, Iran detained a British oil tanker in the Persian Gulf; it remains in Tehran’s custody.

The United States’ most devoted ally in Europe, the UK, is the only country, so far, to support Trump’s call for an international anti-Iran armada in the region. It has sent three new warships to reinforce its presence there in recent weeks, with the stated goal of protecting shipping lanes.

Meanwhile, after Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif made a surprise appearance at the G-7 summit in Biarritz over the weekend where he failed to achieve any notable diplomatic breakthroughs, he then darted off to Beijing, where he met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. This was s the third time the Iranian FM has visited China this year, as the Iranian tries to reinforce Chinese support of Iran in its conflict with the US.

Iran and China need to join forces to counter unilateralism and “contempt for international law,” Zarif told his Chinese counterpart at a meeting in Beijing on Monday. WHile Zarif did not mention the U.S. directly in opening remarks to Wang Yi at a state guesthouse, he appeared to be referencing the administration of President Donald Trump.

China has been a close Iranian economic partner and is among the signatories to the 2015 nuclear accord, which has been unraveling since President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement.

“Unilateralism is on the rise. Rejection of international law, not just lack of respect for international law but in fact contempt for international law, is on the rise and we need to work together,” Zarif said, after making an impromptu five-hour visit Sunday to the seaside resort of Biarritz, where he met with French President Emmanuel Macron and French, German and British diplomats.

He said he planned to brief Wang on “the latest developments as well as my tour of Europe and my discussions in Biarritz with our French colleagues” in the nuclear agreement.

Wang said in his opening remarks that “unilateralism is rising and power politics is emerging. Facing this situation, China as a responsible country agrees to work with Iran and other countries to work together for multilateralism, the basic rules of international politics and uphold the rightful interests of each country.”

During his trip to China, which has emerged as an obvious ally in Iran’s feud with Trump, Zarif was said to focus on security in the Strait of Hormuz. It is unclear if he was successful, however if one more Chinese warships unexpectedly appear in the Persian Gulf, we will know the answer.

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1106 UP .0005 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.75 UP 0.011 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2266   UP   0.0044  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3230 DOWN .0022 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 5 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1106 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 38.63 POINTS OR 1.35% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 16.26 POINTS OR 0.06%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,53%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 16.26 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.63 POINTS OR 1.35%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 53% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 195.04  POINTS OR 0.96%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1529.95

silver:$17.81-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.50% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.99 DOWN 5  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.89 DOWN 19 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers  TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.11% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.26%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.08%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,14 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 106 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.70% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.84% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1090  DOWN   .0011 or 11 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.85 DOWN .112 OR YEN UP 11  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2287 UP .0065 POUND UP 65  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 25 basis points to 1.3277

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1617    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1632  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8326 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.26%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.48 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.96 DOWN 7 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.02 DOWN 6  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 14.66  0.21`%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 44.14 POINTS OR .38%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 24.11 POINTS 0.38%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 31.90 POINTS or 0.37%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 280.93 POINTS OR 1.36%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.07 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 58.73 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    66.53  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.43 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 43 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.70 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.99//

 

 

BRENT :  59.49

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.48 down 6 basis points and deadly//…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.96 down 8 basis pts and deadly//..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1091 ( DOWN 11   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.76 DOWN .205 (YEN UP 21 BASIS POINTS/..KILLS YEN CARRY TRADE

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.02 DOWN 6 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2287 UP 65  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8323

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.52   DOWN 0.42 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 42 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3294 DOWN 42 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1617  (ONSHORE)/DEADLY./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1661 (OFFSHORE) DEADLY/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.70%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 125.27 POINTS OR 0.48%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 26.79 POINTS OR 0.24%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.98 CLOSED UP .66

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.144%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Silver & Gold Soar, Yields & Small Caps Plunge As Trade-Deal Hope Tanks

What Bill Dudley’s op-ed did to The Fed’s apolitical narrative…

Chinese stocks played catch up overnight with US exuberance, but its didn’t hold…

Source: Bloomberg

Italian stocks outperformed today on hopes of a rebuild coalition ending the political crisis…

Source: Bloomberg

Which also sent BTP yields plummeting (to the lowest since Sept 2016) and spread to Bunds tumbled to its lowest since May 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

 

US equity markets were pumped once again overnight, dumped from the open, then managed a low vol melt-up back to unchanged for Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow; but Trannies and Small Caps were major underperformers

 

 

Philip Morris and Altria announced merger talks, spiking the latter initially but it didn’t end well…

 

Stocks rallied into the US open on the heels of an oddly uniform plunge in VIX, but once cash markets opened, VIX popped and stocks dropped…

 

 

Treasury yields tumbled today led by the long-end (2Y -2bps, 30Y -7bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields fell back below 2.00%, closing at a new record low…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve collapsed today.

3m10Y crashed to a new cycle low…

Source: Bloomberg

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

We now have had three months of a 3-mo/10-yr yield curve inversion. The track record this has had in predicting recessions: 100%.

And the much-watched 2s10s plummeted to below -5bps – the most inverted since Lehman (2s30s still +43bps BUT that is the flattest in 2019)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

The Dollar Index ended practically unchanged after ramping from the US cash equity open following overnight weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed today with Bitcoin Cash best…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin managed to hold above $10k for now…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Silver and oil prices outperformed today but copper and gold were also bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Silver surged to its highest since April 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver dramatically outperformed gold once again (silver surging from 27-year lows relative to gold)

Source: Bloomberg

Gold continues to track negative-yielding debt higher as a proxy for pure policy folly…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude surged back above $55 on the heels of Russian comments about sticking to production goals…

 

Bonds & Bullion have been August’s big winners so far with stocks suffering…

 

 

Finally, the odds of a US-China trade deal have collapsed back to cycle lows today, not helped by the comments from Global Times…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P 500 is 4.5% from its all-time record high… and investors are suffering from “Extreme Fear”…

END

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA/THIS MORNING

The yield curve is not buying the Dow again

(zerohedge)

The Yield Curve Is Crashing (As Stocks Surge Into Open)

US equity futures are lurching ever higher into the cash market open, because – reportedly – “optimism over US-China trade talks.” The only problem is – the yield curve (and rates) are collapsing…

One could argue that the machines are just running stops…

Because the bond market ain’t buying it at all…

Source: Bloomberg

A week book-ended by long-weekends (UK and US) has done wonders for the machines running the stock market; but they just can’t control the bond market yet.

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Gold Spikes As Stocks Tumble Into Red

Well that de-escalated quickly…

 

As stocks near the European close, losses are accelerating. Dow futures tagged an important resistance level and slumped…

Catching down to the yield curve’s crunch…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And Gold is spiking…

end

Mid afternoon

US Stocks Leg Lower After Chinese Media Signal No Trade-Deal Progress

US equity markets just legged lower, erasing more of the happy-talk gains from yesterday following a tweet from Global Times Editor Hu Xijin that appears to signal no great desire to move towards a trade deal any times soon:

” China on Tuesday issued 20 directives to boost consumption, in an effort to further tap domestic market, not putting so much emphasis on trade talks. China’s economy is increasingly driven internally, it’s more and more difficult for the US to press China to make concessions.

Dow is tumbling…

Treasury yields also accelerated lower…

 

Source: Bloomberg

We’re gonna need another imaginary phone call to save this one!

 end

ii)Market data/USA

Home prices growth slumps to its weakest level in 7 ears. Not a healthy economy

(zero hedge)

US Home Price Growth Slumps To Weakest In 7 Years

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller’s 20-City Composite price index rose just 2.13% YoY in June – the weakest growth since August 2012.

The MoM rise of just 0.04% notably missed expectations of a 0.1% rise and the drop from 2.37% YoY was also a sizable acceleration in the decline.

Source: Bloomberg

This slide has occurred as mortgage rates have plunged…

Source: Bloomberg

But, given the lags in Case-Shiller data, there is an argument that the de-growth in prices could be about to stall (even though that’s not what we saw in early 2016).

New York City saw a decline in prices in June.

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

THE BOND KING HAS SPOKEN: 

his strategy buy sovereign bonds and shun all corporate debt due to the huge overhang of fallen angels BBB bonds

(zerohedge)

“The Yields Are Too Low”: America’s ‘Bond Kings’ Embrace Same Strategy, Shun Corporate Debt

Amid one of the most stunning bond rallies in recent memory, all three of the most widely regarded American bond managers – Jeffrey Gundlach (DoubleLine), Scott Minerd (Guggenheim) and Dan Ivascyn (PIMCO) – are underperforming their benchmarks this year largely for the same reasons: ultra-low and negative yields are making them uneasy.

And while demand for corporate bonds has picked up this year as investors from all over the world search for yield in the US, all three of these managers refuse to invest in corporate debt, believing it to be a troubled asset class with too many landmines (of which the neutron bomb is the $3 billion BBB-rated soon to be fallen angel” bonds which we have discussed one too many times to go over again) .

Gundlach, for his part, has been warning about a blowup in US corporate debt markets for months.

 

But according to Reuters, all three men now have adopted roughly the same strategy, stay long government bonds and wait for the turbulence that they see ahead to pass by before buying back into corporate debt.

Investors had been feasting on U.S. corporate credit bonds for years, though recession fears and mounting defaults late last year put an abrupt end to that. This year, the appetite for U.S. corporate bonds picked up dramatically when investors’ views on the economy began to improve and central banks became more accommodative.

U.S. corporate bonds have posted a total return of 13.4% this year, measured by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Bond Index while year-to-date Treasury returns are up 8.1%, according to an index compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays.

What’s more, a lack of alternatives against the backdrop of ultra-low, even negative-yielding, debt has made U.S. corporate bonds the natural destination for many investors. Some 95% of all investment-grade corporate debt in the world that has a positive yield is in the United States, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

All three investors – Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital; Ivascyn, group chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co, known as Pimco; and Minerd, global chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners – have been underweight corporate credit relative to their benchmarks.

All three told Reuters they can live with the underperformance for now.

“We have never owned a single corporate bond in the Total Return Strategy dating back to 1993. Look it up,” Gundlach said. “When corporate bonds become very overvalued, especially when rates fall due to recession prospects increasing – well?” he added of why he has avoided the asset class.

Gundlach added that he expects there will be times when his fund is out of favor, and there will be times when it’s extremely popular: Same with all of the other managers.

Ivascyn, who oversees $1.84 trillion in assets under management at Pimco as of June 30, shares Gundlach’s sentiments. “We believe that corporate credit is fundamentally weak and could overshoot to the downside if the economy deteriorates,” he said.

The Pimco Income Fund, the largest actively managed bond fund, with assets of more than $130 billion, is lagging 93 percent of its Multisector Bond category so far this year, according to Morningstar data as of Aug. 23. The Multisector category typically invests in U.S. government obligations, U.S. corporate bonds, foreign bonds and high-yield U.S. debt securities and has assets of $259 billion.

Minerd’s Guggenheim Total Return Bond Fund is lagging 95% of its Intermediate Core-Plus Bond category so far this year, for the same period.

“As the Fed begins its easing campaign to try to extend an already long-in-the-tooth expansion, credit spreads are already tight across the fixed-income spectrum,” Minerd said. “Credit spreads could get tighter in this liquidity-driven rally, but history has shown that the potential for widening from here is much greater.”

All three have agreed that they’re keeping their duration as low as possible, and ultimately, they expect to win in the long run.

“I’ve said this a thousand times…we always run shorter duration,” Gundlach said.

[…]

“We think developed government bond yields are too low and could easily reverse so we are comfortable with low rate exposure,” Ivascyn said.

When yields finally snap higher, that’s the time to think about buying. The only question is when will that happen and what will be the catalyst.

END
Michael Snyder is now reporting that insiders are selling 600 million  dollars worth of stock per day in August: the apocalypse is coming
(Michael Snyder)

Preparing For Financial Apocalypse: Insiders Are Selling “$600 Million Of Stock Per Day In August”

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

In the U.S., corporate insiders have been selling stocks at an average rate of 600 million dollars per day during the month of August. 

This kind of wild selling indicates that there is a tremendous amount of fear among corporate insiders right now, and such selling would only make sense if a stock market crash is imminent.  And without a doubt, we have already seen volatility return to Wall Street in a major way as our trade war with China has dramatically escalated.  Many Americans are hoping that things will start to calm down and that our trade conflict with China can be resolved calmly, because if things take a bad turn many analysts are warning that we could soon be facing the worst financial crisis since 2008.  Here is one example

Remember the brutal sell-off last year when stocks suffered their worst December since the Great Depression? Something worse than that could happen in days, a Nomura analyst said.

Macro and quant strategist Masanari Takada turned heads earlier this month with his bold call for a “Lehman-like” plunge. He’s sticking with this prediction as market sentiment shows no signs of improving, leading him to believe a monster sell-off could arrive this week.

With chilling forecasts like that being thrown around on a regular basis these days, it is understandable that corporate insiders would be tempted to get out of the market, and right now they are racing for the exits at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking.  The following comes from CNN

Corporate insiders have sold an average of $600 million of stock per day in August, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks stock market liquidity.

August is on track to be the fifth month of the year in which insider selling tops $10 billion. The only other times that has happened was 2006 and 2007, the period before the last bear market in stocks, TrimTabs said.

In other words, the last time we saw corporate insiders dump stocks like this was just before the last financial crisis.

Clearly, many among the elite are preparing for the worst.  They can see financial disaster looming on the horizon, and they are getting out of the market while the getting is still good.

On the other hand, there are multitudes of Americans out there that are completely convinced that President Trump will be able to successfully navigate us through any storms that may be ahead.

When Barack Obama was in the White House, national interest in prepping soared to all-time highs, but since Trump entered the White House things have completely reversed.  The following comes from Business Insider

But since President Trump took office in 2016, prepping has taken a dive nationwide. There are fewer prepper conventions held across the US, and several prepper business owners who spoke with Business Insider (as well as Mills), say the prepping community is not as active as it was three years ago. It’s an indication of how Trump relieves many of the worst fears of his voters, including conservative preppers.

“It definitely seems to be cycling with the White House,” prepper and inventor Mikhail Merkurieff, who builds and sells prepping and camping tools including stoves, cooking utensils, and portable shelters, told Business Insider.

With a Republican in the White House, many conservatives simply do not see any reason to prep anymore, and so things are completely different than they were about four or five years ago.  Many former preppers seem to believe that having Trump in the Oval Office means that “we don’t have to worry about anything”

Rick Austin, who organizes a popular “Prepper Camp” in the hills of North Carolina every year, which is attended by roughly 1,400 worst-case-scenario preparers hoping to beef up their skills, also noted a downturn.

“Businesses are down because people have kind of gone, ‘Oh, you know, Trump’s in office, we don’t have to worry about anything,’” he said while milking his goats from an “undisclosed location” in the Appalachian Mountains.

So we are witnessing something extremely strange right now.

Corporate insiders and the Wall Street elite are feverishly preparing as if a “perfect storm” was about to strike, but meanwhile millions upon millions of hardcore conservatives feel completely relaxed because they feel like Trump has everything under control.

And President Trump did cause quite a turnaround in the financial markets on Monday when he told the press that China had called and had requested a return to the negotiating table…

“China called last night our top trade people and said. ‘Let’s get back to the table,’ so we will be getting back to the table and I think they want to do something. They have been hurt very badly but they understand this is the right thing to do and I have great respect for it. This is a very positive development for the world,” Trump said.

Subsequently, however, the Chinese denied that such a call had taken place

In Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he was not aware that a phone call between the two sides had taken place. And Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of Chinese state-run newspaper the Global Times, denied that negotiators had held the phone calls Trump described.

“China didn’t change its position. China won’t cave to U.S. pressure,” said Hu, who is widely seen as a mouthpiece for Beijing’s messaging.

We shall see where things go from here.

It would certainly be a step in the right direction if the two sides start talking again, and the Chinese have definitely expressed a desire to avoid any further escalations

In response, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He told a state-controlled newspaper on Monday that “China is willing to resolve its trade dispute with the United States through calm negotiations and resolutely opposes the escalation of the conflict,” Reuters first reported, citing a transcript of his remarks provided by the Chinese government. Liu is China’s top trade negotiator.

Speaking at a technology conference in China, Liu added: “We believe that the escalation of the trade war is not beneficial for China, the United States, nor to the interests of the people of the world.”

But with a presidential election looming about a year away, the Chinese are simply not going to accept any deal that is appreciably different from what they expect that they could get from Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren.

And it is also very unlikely that President Trump will cave in and give the Chinese what they want.  So ultimately we will see episodes of hope on Wall Street on the days when it looks like the two sides may start talking again, but there won’t be a deal any time soon.

Many people believe that we are living during one of the most critical moments in U.S. history, and we haven’t seen this sort of fear in the financial markets in a long time.

At this moment, corporate insiders are dumping stocks as if “the everything bubble” was about to burst in a major way.  And if those corporate insiders are correct, millions upon millions of other Americans will be completely and utterly unprepared for what is about to happen.

 end
the following is a very important read.  Bill Dudley the Ex NY Fed tells the truth that the Fed is political and it is urging Powell to prevent the Trump re election  by not supporting his tariff wars
a must read…
(zerohedge)

Bill Dudley Shocker: Ex-NY Fed President Urges Fed’s Powell To Prevent Trump Re-election

At the start of August, we explained how – by scapegoating the global economy for the Fed’s July 31 rate cut – the central bank had now trapped itself, having certified before the world that any further escalations in Trump’s trade war are effectively a justification for more rate cuts. Whether this was Powell’s intention is unclear, although as we said at the time, “it certainly means that Trump is now de facto in charge of the Fed’s monetary policy by way of US foreign policy, and it also means that as BofA wrote, “the Fed is unintentionally underwriting the trade war.”

Here, the only thing one can perhaps add is that the Fed may very well be intentionally underwriting Trump’s trade war. In either case, as Bank of America’s chief economist Michelle Meyer said, such a circular framework is a problem for many reasons, and as the bank admits, it is worried about an adverse feedback loop where the trade war hinders economic growth, therefore prompting additional Fed easing, which in turn allows for greater trade war escalation. This is shown in the chart below.

Fast forward to today, when in what in retrospect may be seen as a watershed moment in exposing just how “political” the Federal Reserve always has been despite repeated lies by various officials claiming otherwise, none other than former Goldman chief economist and the former head of the NY Fed, Bill Dudley, after looking at the chart above and having realized that the Fed is underwriting Trump’s trade war, made a “modest proposal” in a Bloomberg op-ed in which he advised Powell to take a political stand against enabling Trump’s trade war, and potentially go so far as to push the economy into a recession to prevent Trump from getting reelected!

Echoing what Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech, where he dedicated a section to Trump’s ongoing trade wars, and blaming them for the Fed’s rising inability to interfere in the US economy, Dudley begins with what is a clear political statement, arguing that “Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the confidence of businesses and consumers, worsening the economic outlook.”

Dudley, who was among those globalists who enabled China’s tremendous ascent, and assured that Beijing will surpass the US economically and militarily at some point by 2032 if the status quo is left unchanged…

… ignores the consequences of his actions, and instead slams Trump for being the one president willing to challenge China’s hegemonic ascent and upcoming Thucydides Trap (which as we noted before virtually assures war with China if nothing is done), saying that “this manufactured disaster-in-the-making presents the Federal Reserve with a dilemma: Should it mitigate the damage by providing offsetting stimulus, or refuse to play along?”

Dudley’s advice: “If the ultimate goal is a healthy economy, the Fed should seriously consider the latter approach.”

While Dudley then spend the bulks of his op-ed explaining the diagram shown at the top, a relationship which our readers are already familiar with, what is of particular note is Dudley’s discussion of why the Fed should ‘refuse to play along’ and refuse to underwrite, as BofA said, Trump’s trade war.

One thing Dudley recommends is that “the Fed could go much further” beyond merely warning, as Powell did, that the Fed’s tools are not suited to mitigating the damage from trade war, but “could state explicitly that the central bank won’t bail out an administration that keeps making bad choices on trade policy, making it abundantly clear that Trump will own the consequences of his actions.”

 

Economic threat.

What immediately stands out here is that it is only Bill Dudley’s subjective opinion that Trump is making “bad choices” on trade policy, an argument that immediately becomes political when one considers that Trump was elected on a platform of, among other things, reducing the US-China trade deficit and, by extension, limiting China’s economic growth which if left unchecked, would assure war between the two superpowers.

No, instead to Dudley, what a myopic Trump should focus on is today and tomorrow, and leave the long-term to someone else. In other words, do precisely what the Fed has been doing for decades, even though as Mark Carney recently hinted, it was the Fed’s monetary policy, that has been responsible for much of the world’s crises and wars. You won’t find a discussion of that in Dudley’s brief op-ed, however.

Going back to Dudley’s argument, the former Goldman banker claims that “such a harder line could benefit the Fed and the economy in three ways”.

  • First, it would discourage further escalation of the trade war, by increasing the costs to the Trump administration.
  • Second, it would reassert the Fed’s independence by distancing it from the administration’s policies.
  • Third, it would conserve much-needed ammunition, allowing the Fed to avoid further interest-rate cuts at a time when rates are already very low by historical standards.

Here the narrative gets downright absurd, because while Dudley refers to the Fed as apolitical, underscoring that further in the next paragraph where he says that “I understand and support Fed officials’ desire to remain apolitical”, he immediately refutes himself by admitting that the Fed has never been apolitical and in fact, it is the US central bank that, through its actions chooses who the US president is, to wit:

Central bank officials face a choice: enable the Trump administration to continue down a disastrous path of trade war escalation, or send a clear signal that if the administration does so, the president, not the Fed, will bear the risks — including the risk of losing the next election.

And the punchline: There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview.”

Translation: “there is even an argument”, Dudley implies, that the Fed should crush the economy (arguably by hiking or not cutting rates) and start the next recession, thereby preventing Trump from getting re-elected.

And while we appreciate Dudley’s de facto confirmation of what we have said for years, namely that the Fed is not only a political entity, one which picks the US president as the former NY Fed president admitted, but that the Fed is an even more powerful entity than the top US executive (an entity which as Bernanke’s former advisor once said: “people would be stunned to know the extent to which the Fed is privately owned”). One hopes that finally a discussion can take place, whether in Congress or elsewhere, if such an entity should exist.

As for Dudley’s “modest proposal”, we look forward to Trump’s response, because if there is one thing the US president needed in writing, it was just such an op-ed, one written from a former Fed member to the current Fed chair, recommending what amounts to mutiny against Trump should Trump proceed with his current course of action. Because if things don’t work out, well Trump now has documentary evidence that, by extension, the Fed also had the ability to ensure his re-election, and if things seem like they are headed off course on the way to November 2020, we will sit back and enjoy as the war between Trump and the Fed goes nuclear.

end

The first of many//First customer lawsuit over the 737 Max

(zerohedge)

Boeing Faces First Customer Lawsuit Over 737 MAX

Expectations that the Boeing 737 MAX 8 will return to the skies any time in the near future have largely faded, and now, after dedicating billions of dollars to compensating customers, Boeing is finally facing their wrath in the courtroom. The FTreports that a Russian aircraft-leasing company has filed a lawsuit against the aerospace company seeking not only the return of the deposit it paid for the 35 MAX 8s that it ordered, but also punitive damages in the hundreds of millions.

Avia Capital Services, a subsidiary of Russian state conglomerate Rostec, accused Boeing of “negligent actions and decisions” that led to two deadly accidents and roughly 350 deaths. Regulators around the world grounded the 737 MAX 8 in response to the accidents, and investigations have pointed toward issues with the plane’s software as the culprit.

In its lawsuit, Avia also claimed that the design of the MAX 8 was “defective”, and – embracing a more conspiratorial tone – that Boeing knew about these defects bu withheld this “critical information” from US regulators and Boeing’s customers.

The lawsuit was filed in Cook County circuit court in Chicago, where Boeing is based.

Avia ordered 35 MAX 8s, and paid a cash deposit of $35 million to secure its order. In its lawsuit, the company is seeking the return of this deposit, along with another $75 million of lost profits plus additional punitive damages.

The company’s lawyer, Steven Marks of the Miami aviation law firm Podhurst Orseck, said Boeing had offered the company compensation for the MAX 8’s problems, but that this compensation was “inadequate.” Marks is also representing the families of some of the victims.

Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg has said it’s possible that the MAX 8 could be re-approved for passenger service by October. But it’s entirely possible that the CEO could be jawboning to convince customers to hold off from moving ahead with lawsuits. Of course, the families of the victims who died in the two plane crashes attributed to flaws in the 737 MAX 8’s anti-stall system are moving ahead with their lawsuits, even after Boeing set aside $100 million for payoffs.

In the meantime, orders for new 737 MAX 8s have dried up, and if the plane isn’t given the OK to return to the skies before the end of the year, it’s possible that Boeing could halt production of its most popular aircraft, according to CBS News.

American firms like Southwest (the 737 MAX 8s’ largest customer) have been far more understanding and willing to work with Boeing. But how much longer until their patience runs out, and they start filing lawsuits?

Though this hasn’t been reflected in Boeing shares, it’s still entirely possible that a flood of legal judgments could bankrupt Boeing.

END

Now we can see first hand how the USA economy is starting to crumble: mortgage defaults are rising for the first time since the 2008 crash

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Mortgage Defaults Rise First Time Since Financial Crisis

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Defaults are up for the first time since the great financial crisis. But as rates fall, a refi surge will help millions.

The Black Knight Mortgage Monitor shows the first annual rise in defaults since the crisis.

First Lien Defaults by Quarter

  • An estimated 243K borrowers defaulted on first lien mortgages in Q2 2019
  • While the quarter ending on a Sunday certainly played a factor in the rise in defaults, a noticeable overall slowdown in the decline in default activity has been observed.
  • The national default rate rose by 3% compared to Q2 2018, the first such annual rise since the financial crisis (adjusting for the 2017 hurricane season)

Delinquencies

  • The national delinquency rate fell by 7% in July, offsetting the bulk of June’s calendar-related spike
  • At 3.46%, July 2019’s delinquency rate is the lowest of any July on record (dating back to 2000)
  • Serious delinquencies (all loans 90 or more days delinquent but not in active foreclosure) fell below 445,000 for the first time since June 2006
  • Despite the Q2 year-over-year rise in defaults, overall seriously delinquent inventory (loans 90 or more days past due) is down by 17% from last year due to continued strong cure activity

Refinancing Stats

  • Prepayment activity jumped 26% from June to its highest level in nearly three years and 58% above this time last year as falling interest rates continue to fuel refinance incentive
  • There are now 9.7M refinance candidates in the market.
  • Rates have since fallen to 3.50% near a two-and-a-half year low, resulting in the most refinance incentive in the market since late 2016

Notes

The above Black Knight chart and bullet points contain some unpublished numbers. Those bullet points do not match the link at the top.

Black Knight was gracious enough to send me an updated numbers and an unpublished chart.

Refinance Candidates Under Different Interest Rate Scenarios

Another 1/8 point decline in rates would increase the number of refinance candidates by 1.5M to 9.7M – a 18% rise in refi incentive.

Likewise, a 1/8 point increase in the 30-year rate would decrease the number of refinance candidates by 1.3M to 6.9M, a 16% decline.

Refinance Comments from Raymond James’ Director of Agency Trading

Steven Childress, Managing Director of Agency MBS Trading, at Raymond James offered these thoughts on refinancing.

  • Just looking at the number of refinance-eligible loans in the money is not the best way to look at refinance eligibility. It’s better to consider how much is in the money as a percentage what is outstanding.
  • Outstanding has grown to ~6.5 trillion in just fixed MBS (FNMA/FGLMC/GNMA). However, today’s raw number is a smaller percentage.
  • The vast majority of eligible refis are from 2018 production, when new loans were put on at higher rates. And even though they are now in the money, it doesn’t mean people will actually refinance.
  • A refinance boom could happen, but the impact may not be as great as the raw eligibility numbers imply.

Affordability Illusions

Black knight says falling interest rates make homes more “affordable”.

“The decline in 30-year rates has been equivalent to a 15% increase in buying power, meaning that prospective homebuyers shopping for the average priced home could now pay $45,000 more for a home than last fall while keeping monthly payments the same.”

Let’s not confuse monthly payments with what a house is worth. A home is not worth $45,000 more (or less) based on what the interest rate is.

Moreover, and very importantly, home price increases have far outstripped wages.

Housing Bubble Reblown

The Fed re-blew the housing bubble. The Last Chance for a Good Price Was 7 Years Ago.

“Affordability” based on declining interest rates is an illusion.

People shy away from buying homes for one primary reason: sticker shock. They cannot afford the asking prices.

Interest rates have a minor role.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Weird! Epstein bizarre sexual abuse ignored by both the FBI and NYPD

(zerohedge)

Early Epstein Accuser Recounts Bizarre Sexual Abuse Ignored By FBI, NYPD

Jeffrey Epstein’s tremendous wealth and power allowed him to continuously prey on young women for decades – even while serving a 13-month stint in a Florida jail for pedophilia.

According to multiple accounts, Epstein had a network of girls recruiting other victims for his sexual appetite, all under the direction of his long-time ‘Madam’ and partner in crime, Ghislaine Maxwell – who remains uncharged and has denied any wrongdoing.

And had authorities listened and taken action some twenty-four years ago when accuser Maria Farmer says she informed the FBI of Epstein’s predatory sexual abuse, dozens more victims would have been spared, according to the New York Times.

Farmer, an artist, says Epstein lured her into his world with promises to pay for her painting career – only to be ‘violently groped’ by Epstein and Maxwell, according to her account. She recalls entering Epstein’s orbit at the age of 25, where she says aspiring Victoria’s Secret models would come through for ‘auditions’ for the lingerie company.

According to Farmer, Maxwell would announce upon leaving the house “I’ve got to go get girls for Jeffrey.” 

Ms. Maxwell would refer to the girls she was looking for as “nubiles,” Ms. Farmer said. “They had a driver, and he would be driving along, and Ghislaine would say, ‘Get that girl,’” she said. “And they’d stop, and she’d run out and get the girl and talk to her.” –New York Times

And when former President Bill Clinton was coming over, Epstein’s house “bustled in anticipation” of the visit – though Farmer says she never actually saw him there. Her mother, Janice Swain, claims she met Donald one day in Mr. Epstein’s office, to which Epstein reportedly told Trump “she’s not for you.”

Maria’s sister Annie, meanwhile, “had been subjected to a troubling topless massage at Mr. Epstein’s ranch in New Mexico,” after Maria introduced Annie to Epstein.

 

Annie Farmer had troubling encounters with Mr. Epstein and Ms. Maxwell when she was 16.CreditTamir Kalifa for The New York Times

when she woke up in the house one morning, she recalled him coming into the room, saying he wanted to cuddle, and getting into bed next to her.

Ms. Farmer also recalled Ms. Maxwell repeatedly asking whether she wanted a massage. Eventually relenting, Ms. Farmer followed directions by taking off her clothes and bra and getting under a sheet on a massage table. Ms. Maxwell performed the massage, at one point having Ms. Farmer lie on her back as Ms. Maxwell pulled down the sheet to massage her chest.

“I don’t think there was any reason for her to be touching me that way,” Ms. Farmer said. –New York Times

Maria, meanwhile, also had a disturbing experience with Epstein and Maxwell.

One night, she recalled getting an unusual request: Mr. Epstein needed his feet massaged.

The foot massage was brief and awkward, Ms. Farmer recalled, as Mr. Epstein groaned with what seemed like exaggerated pleasure, followed by a yelp of pain. Then he invited her to sit on the bed, where he was watching a PBS program about math.

Ms. Maxwell joined them on the bed, Ms. Farmer said, and the night took a sudden turn: Both Mr. Epstein and Ms. Maxwell began groping Ms. Farmer over her clothes, rubbing her body, commenting on her features, and twisting her nipples to the point of bruisingShe said they did so in unison, mirroring each other’s movements. Fearing that she was about to be raped, Ms. Farmer eventually fled the room and barricaded herself in another part of the house.

She soon discovered that three nude photographs she had kept in a storage box were missing. The photos were of Annie and a third Farmer sister, who was 12, modeling for Maria’s figurative paintings.

When Maria says she contacted the New York Police Department and the FBI about the parade of young women being offered up to the millionaire pedophile, her reports went nowhere.

Officers at the New York Police Department precinct took a report on the purported threat and on the art theft allegation, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times. But they referred her to other agencies, including the F.B.I., concerning the assault allegation because Ohio was outside their jurisdiction, Ms. Farmer said.

Ms. Farmer said she called the F.B.I. and spoke for about half an hour with the agent who answered the phone. The agent did not say what would happen with her report, she said. She asked if she should phone other law enforcement officials in individual states, like Ohio and New Mexico, and was told that was “up to you,” she said. She recalled contacting at least one other jurisdiction — she did not remember which — and making no progress.

I did not want another young lady to go through what Annie went through,” said Maria Farmer in a recent interview. “I could handle what happened to me. I could not handle what happened to her.”

Maria Farmer’s account is corroborated by art collector Stuart Pivar, who says he recalled running into Farmer at a flea market at the time – and says she mentioned having “serious concerns about Mr. Epstein that she said she had reported to law enforcement.”

Others ignored her as well

Farmer said she also raised her concerns about Mr. Epstein with leaders in the art community, including Ms. Guggenheim, the dean at the art school who had first put her in touch with Mr. Epstein. But she said Ms. Guggenheim did not seem to take the issue seriously. Ms. Guggenheim said in an interview that the details she was aware of at the time did not rise to a level that would require intervention.

The two Farmer sisters made another run at telling their story in 2003 to Vicky Ward, a reporter for Vanity Fair, which had commissioned an article about Mr. Epstein’s complicated finances that would also mention his proclivity for young girls. The article was published with no mention of the Farmers, and they felt they were left badly exposed.

Threats begin

After the Farmer sisters told Vanity Fair their story, they claim to have received angry phone calls – including one from Maxwell in which they were warned,”Better be careful and watch your back,” adding ” ‘I know you go to the West Side Highway all the time. While you’re out there, just be really careful because there are a lot of ways to die there.’”

Epstein continued to prey on young women for nine years before anyone began investigating his proclivities. After his 2008 stint in jail under a ‘sweetheart’ deal which allowed him to leave the jail and essentially roam free under loose guidelines his lawyers were able to secure. And after his second entanglement with the law – this time an arrest for sex trafficking underage girls, Epstein was found dead in his jail cell pending trial – which was ruled a suicide.

end
Deutsche bank has Trump’s tax returns  but I do not know how on earth they could be released to the crooked anti Trump lawmakers
(zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Says It Has Tax Returns Subpoenaed By Anti-Trump Lawmakers 

Deutsche Bank has confirmed that they are in possession of tax returns requested by US lawmakers probing the finances of President Trump and his family.

The disclosure was made in a Tuesday filing in response to a question from an appeals court last week, according to Bloomberg, however the names of the individual or individuals in question (probably Trump and his organization) are redacted.

Susanne Craig

@susannecraig

Deutsche Bank has all but confirmed the bank is in possession of tax returns for President Trump and some of his immediate family. Names are redacted in the letter the bank just filed in response to Monday’s court order, but it’s clear who they are referring to. 👉

View image on Twitter

According to the report, the appeals panel is mulling a request by Trump to block access to financial records at both Deutsche Bank and Capital One – the latter of which says it does not possess any tax returns applicable to the subpoena.

Zoe Tillman

@ZoeTillman

In response to an order from the 2nd Circuit in Trump’s subpoena fight with House Dems, Capital One says it doesn’t have any copies of tax returns for Trump or his companies: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6354208/8-27-19-Capital-One-Letter-Trump.pdf 

Deutsche Bank says it has records, but redacted names: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6354209/8-27-19-Deutsche-Bank-Letter-Trump.pdf 

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Zoe Tillman

@ZoeTillman

The 2nd Circuit hasn’t ruled yet on whether House Dems can enforce the subpoena for whatever tax returns and other responsive records Deutsche Bank has — after hearing arguments, the court had asked the banks if they had docs, and they filed responses

The appllate judges had requested to know if the banks actually have the tax returns.

Trump, his children Donald Jr., Eric and Ivanka, and his businesses, sued the banks in April to block them from complying with the demand from lawmakers to turn over the financial information. A federal judge in May rejected that request, and Trump has appealed.

In its filing Tuesday, Deutsche Bank said it has tax returns — in either draft or as-filed form — responsive to the subpoenas. The names were redacted. The bank also said it has “such documents related to parties not named in the subpoenas but who may constitute ‘immediate family’ within the definition provided by the subpoenas.” –Bloomberg

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

The King Report August 27, 2019 Issue 607                                                                                 Independent View of the News

The Casino Royale that is the equity market had its head croupier deal a hand of Liar’s Poker on Monday.

 

In our Monday missive, we noted that ESUs opened 45 handles lower due to the escalating trade conflict between the US and China.  When half of the loss was rescinded we wondered if someone had intervened.

 

When the US equity market declines smartly and nears critical levels, Trump or one of his stooges surfaces and issues bull shirt, AKA verbal intervention.  The algos, lemmings and assorted educated fools on the Street swallow it without contemplation or analysis.

 

At 22:06 ET, this appeared: China willing to resolve trade dispute with U.S. via dialogue: newspaper

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said on Monday that China is willing to resolve its trade dispute with the United States through calm negotiations and resolutely opposes the escalation of the conflict, a state-backed newspaper reported. Liu, China’s top trade negotiator, was speaking at a tech conference in Chongqing in southwest China, the Chongqing Morning Post reported…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-vice-premier-idUSKCN1VG059

 

ESUs rallied again and were only down 12 handles for the night.

 

A few hours later, Trump grabbed the big table’s shoe and called his game: Liar’s Poker.

 

[1:04 ET] BBG TicToc‏ @tictoc: “China called last night our top trade people and said let’s get back to the table.”  Trump says China wants to restart trade talks during a meeting with Egypt’s President… “I think we’re going to make a deal.”  Trump says the U.S. had “very, very good” and “productive” calls with China on trade talks

 

[3:17 ET] Trump on trade war: China wants to negotiate and we will be ‘getting back to the table’

“China called last night our top trade people and said ‘let’s get back to the table’ so we will be getting back to the table and I think they want to do something. They have been hurt very badly but they understand this is the right thing to do and I have great respect for it. This is a very positive development for the world,” Trump said.

    “I think we are going to have a deal,” he added. “They have supply chains that are unbelievably intricate and people are all leaving and they are going to other countries, including the United States by the way, we are going to get a lot of them too.”…

    Meanwhile in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he was not aware that a phone call between the two sides had taken place…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/g7-donald-trump-says-china-ready-to-negotiate-on-trade-war.html

 

[3:30 ET] @realDonaldTrump: Great respect for the fact that President Xi & his Representatives want “calm resolution.” So impressed that they are willing to come out & state the facts so accurately. This is why he is a great leader & representing a great country. Talks are continuing!

 

China, via its conduit/the Global Times editor in chief Hu Xijin, threw the BS Flag on Trump.

 

[3:52 ET] @HuXijin_GT: Based on what I know, Chinese and US top negotiators didn’t hold phone talks in recent days. The two sides have been keeping contact at technical level, it doesn’t have significance that President Trump suggested. China didn’t change its position. China won’t cave…

 

[10:18 ET on Monday] Trump Says China Talks Back On as Beijing Downplays Breakthrough

“You can say we’re having very meaningful talks, much more meaningful than I would say at any time frankly,” Trump said while meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday. “Maybe I’m wrong but we’re in a stronger position now to do a deal, a fair deal for everyone,” he added…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-26/china-firmly-opposes-u-s-trade-war-escalation-liu-says?srnd=premium

 

Whether DJT and/or China are lying is secondary to the fact that each time US stocks cascade, Trump panics – and everyone with a modicum of sense knows it, including Xi.  And Xi sees weakness.

 

[4:50 ET] CNBC’s @EamonJavers: Asked about the Chinese denials of new trade calls, despite President Trump’s statement, Trump implies the calls were with the vice premier of China. Sec. Mnuchin says: “There’s been communication going on.” President Trump chimes in: “at the highest level.” Pressed further about the calls with China that Trump said happened and the Chinese deny, Trump says he doesn’t want to talk about calls.

 

[5:43 ET] @revrrlewis: Reporter: “Did you mean to say that there was also a call last night [with China] or was there not actually a call?”  Steve Mnuchin: “There were discussions that went back and forth, and let’s just leave it at that.” Trump [interrupting]: “Last night. And before last night.”

 

By 5:36 ET, ESUs had rallied from 2810.25 to 2888.50, 78 handles, on BS.  Ladies and gentleman, your capital markets!

 

ESUs rallied from unchanged (2857) to 2874.50 during the BS from wrap up G7 press conference.

 

[10:55 ET] BBG’s @SalehaMohsin: Trump says China is sincere in wanting a deal. ”I’m not sure they have a choice” “China has taken a very hard hit… the tariffs have hit them very hard” ”They’ve manipulated their currency, they’ve devalued their currency”

 

[11:07 ET] @tictoc: Reporter asking Trump about China: “Do you trust they are sincere?” Trump: “Yes”

 

We said a few years and we must reiterate it now: Trump’s biggest mistake, next to his hiring, has been tying himself to the stock market.

 

Bob Rubin persuaded Bill Clinton to tie his presidency to the bond market.  We wonder who induced DJT to tether his administration to the stock market.  PS – The bond market is far more erudite than equities.

 

@thehill: President Trump: “You people want a recession because you think maybe that’s the way to get Trump out, maybe that’s the way we get him out — but I don’t even think that would work.”

 

Leaders’ closing remarks at Biarritz G7 Summit

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-summit-highlights-idUSKCN1VG1M9

 

The latest ugly German economic news was lost in Trump’s fast shuffle.

 

German business confidence plunges amid recession fears – Ifo’s executive index dropped for the 11th time in 12 months… based on a survey of 9,000 firms… fell to 94.3 points this month from 95.7 points in July…   https://www.dw.com/en/german-business-confidence-plunges-amid-recession-fears/a-50166280

The July Ifo Business Expectations component at 91.3 is the lowest reading since July 2008!

Troubling US economic data on Monday

  • US July Durable Goods 2.1%, 1.2% exp.
  • Durables ex transportation: -0.4%, unch exp.
  • Nondef, ex-Air orders 0.4%, unch exp.
  • Shipment -0.7%, +0.1 exp., biggest decline in three years
  • Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index plunged to -0.36% from +0.03%, unch exp
  • Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index 3-month MA fell to -0.14, up from -.30

 

Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index

file:///C:/Users/bill/AppData/Local/Packages/Microsoft.MicrosoftEdge_8wekyb3d8bbwe/TempState/Downloads/cfnai-august2019-pdf%20(1).pdf

 

Positive US economic news on Monday: July Dallas Fed Mfg Index 2.7, -4.0 expected

 

After the 5:36 ET top, ESUs traded sideways in a 33-handle range until the close.  The S&P 500 Index traded within a 23-handle range until someone juiced ESUs and stocks on the NYSE close.

 

Most of the Street realized that Trump’s BS lifted stocks.  However, the bigger dynamic at play was the Trump Put can be counted on when stocks are at critical support.

 

Wisdom Tree’s @KevinFlanaganWT: Last treasuries 2s/10s inversion begun in Dec 2005 and ended Jun 2007.  Fed raised rates to 5 1/4 in Jun 2006, they just cut rates to 2 1/4, 10yr bunds avg, was 3.91%, now -0.69%, Fed’s balance sheet was $750-800bln, now $3.6tln

Annoying Larry Summers has been running his mouth lately.  So, some pundits are reminding the masses about his role in scuttling the regulation of OTC derivatives in 1998-1999, which led to the 2008 Crisis.

NYT book review: ‘13 Bankers’

Brooksley Born… head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)… was worried about the fast-growing, lightly regulated market for over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives…

     She proposed to issue a “concept paper” that would raise the question of whether derivatives regulation should be strengthened. Even this step provoked furious opposition, not only from Wall Street but also from the economic heavyweights of the federal government — Greenspan, Treasury Secretary (and former Goldman Sachs chair) Robert Rubin, and Deputy Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. At one point, Summers placed a call to Born. As recalled by Michael Greenberger, one of Born’s lieutenants, Summers said, “I have thirteen bankers in my office, and they say if you go forward with this you will cause the worst financial crisis since World War II.“… [The worst crisis occurred due to the non-reg.]

    But Congress responded in October by passing a moratorium prohibiting her agency from regulating custom derivatives. In 1999, the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets — including Summers, Greenspan, SEC chair Arthur Levitt, and new CFTC chair William Rainer — recommended that custom derivatives be exempted from federal regulation. This recommendation became part of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which President Clinton signed into law in December 2000…

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/25/books/excerpt-13-bankers.html

5 minutes after the close @CNBCnow: Johnson & Johnson surges more than 4% after being ordered to pay less than expected in landmark opioid trial [ESU surge at close cause?] http://cnbc.com/id/106096950

Fox News’ Nat’l Sec Expert @WalidPhares: Per reports, US advanced strategic bombers flew to the UK, some to the UAE, today.

Today – Trump saved stocks on Monday from a devastating decline and severe technical damage.  Who will intervene today?  Barring news, stocks should range trade with day traders in charge, doing their normal pattern trading and probing for soft spots.

@realDonaldTrump: The story by Axios that President Trump wanted to blow up large hurricanes with nuclear weapons prior to reaching shore is ridiculous. I never said this. Just more FAKE NEWS!

Biden, apparently envious of Trump’s Liar’s Poker skills, decided to deal himself into the game.

@paulsperry_: Biden told a supporter after Keene State College (N.H.) stump speech yesterday that he came out of college with “$280,000” in debt, but then just moments later, he told another supporter that his debt was “over $300,000”  [Joe graduated from U Delaware in 1965; tuition & board were about a few grand.  Joe graduated from Syracuse Law in 1968; he claimed that he had a full scholarship.]

Biden’s prez campaign blew up in September 1987 when he got caught in lies about his academics.

BIDEN ADMITS ERRORS IN SCHOOL CLAIMS

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1987-09-22-8703110780-story.html

Vice President Joe Biden Caught In Lie About Playing Football?   2012

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/vice-president-biden-caug_n_1975371

Democrat Yvette Simpson on ABC’s “This Week”. “Joe Biden is struggling.  It’s been a tough week and a tough couple weeks for Joe Biden… He’s having a lot of trouble staying on message….and people are wondering whether he has the stamina. … He still isn’t seeing the big grassroots support, the big rallies, the big events. … The fact that you see his wife already going to the electability argument means they know that he’s weak.”  https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1166040529521577986

New Monmouth Poll: Warren and Bernie tied at 20%; Biden at 19% [32% in June]

https://nypost.com/2019/08/26/biden-losing-support-to-sanders-and-warren-poll/

NYT: Federal prosecutors in Washington appear to be in the final stages of deciding whether to indict Andrew G. McCabe… on charges of lying to federal agents…  [Is this why he signed a deal with CNN?]

    The person would not detail the discussions, but defense lawyers typically meet with top law enforcement officials to try to persuade them not to indict their client if they failed to get line prosecutors to drop the case… [Or to arrange a ‘flip’ deal – it’s an easy guess who leaked this]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/26/us/politics/andrew-mccabe-indictment-decision.html

Babylon Bee: Congress Members to Wear Barcodes So Lobbyists Can Scan Prices, Self-Checkout

https://babylonbee.com/news/congress-members-to-wear-upc-codes-so-lobbyists-can-scan-prices-self-checkout

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

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