AUGUST 28//SILVER CONTINUES TO ADVANCE UP ANOTHER 19 CENTS TO $18.37//GOLD TAKES A LITTLE BREATHER DOWN $2.15 TO $1539.65//CHINA REFUSES TO ALLOW A USA WARSHIP TO DOCK IN CHINA//GOOGLE LISTENS TO TRUMP AND PULLS ITS MFG OF SMART PHONES OUT OF CHINA//BORIS JOHNSON SUSPENDS PARLIAMENT//ITALY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT WITHOUT SALVINI: HINT IT WILL NOT LAST//HUGE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SWAMP TODAY RE RUSSIAGATE//

GOLD:$1539.65 DOWN 2.15(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $18.37 UP 19 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1541.30

 

silver:  $18.38

option trading silver and gold:

We are now entering options expiry week for the comex

 

OTC/ LBMA expires :  Friday, the 30th.

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  0/31

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,541.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/27/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/29/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
686 C INTL FCSTONE 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 16
905 C ADM 15
991 H CME 29
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 31 31
MONTH TO DATE: 8,696

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 31 NOTICE(S) FOR 3100 OZ (0.0096 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8696 NOTICES FOR 869600 OZ  (27.048 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000  OZ/

AND

1 NOTICE FILED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (THAT I MISSED)

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2001 for   10,005,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10124 DOWN 53 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9658 DOWN $510

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 1161 CONTRACTS FROM 238,809 UP TO 239,970… DESPITE THE GIGANTIC LEAP OF A  56 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT: 3810, DEC: 354 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  4164 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4164 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4164 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 20.82 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 56 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.005   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH OBVIOUS ZERO SUCCESS..AND WE ALSO HAD CONSIDERABLE SPREADING  LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER  TOTAL COMPRESSION OF COMEX SILVER DID NOT OCCUR AGAIN DUE TO THE HUGE DEMAND FOR ALL SILVER CONTRACT MONTHS WHICH DWARFED THE SILVER SPREADING LIQUIDATION.

 

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

38,833 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 38,833 CONTRACTS) OR 194.165 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1941 CONTRACTS OR 9.708 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  194.165 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 27.74% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1506.79   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1161, DESPITE THE MASSIVE  56 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4164 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED: 5325 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 4164 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1161  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 56 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.18 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! AND ON TOP OF THIS WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPREADING LIQUIDATION 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.2000 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 171% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 10,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

AND NOW WE ARE WITHIN A WHISKER OF ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,169  BUT THIS TIME  THE PRICE OF SILVER YESTERDAY WAS $18.18 AND HIGHER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

 

 

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.005 MILLION OZ
  2. CLOSE TO THE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 244,169 CONTRACTS (OR 1.228 BILLION OZ/, THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW IN FULL SWING  ONLY FOR SILVER WITH CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION  ACCOMPLISHED IN THAT ENDEAVOUR TODAY…… THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD  STOPS FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH BUT WILL START IN EARNEST ONCE WE ENTER THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. IN SILVER WE WOULD NORMALLY WITNESS A HUGE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST AS WE PROCEED TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER THE DEMAND FOR SILVER HAS BEEN SO GREAT THAT IT DWARFED THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION.

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7321 CONTRACTS, TO 636,183 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG $14.50 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// //HOWEVER  WE HAVE A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN OI NUMBERS FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 16,871 WITH NO SPREADING LIQUIDATION IN GOLD!! THIS IS A FRAUD TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE!!

 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 10,000 CONTRACTS:

AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, OCT: 947 DEC>  9053 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 636,183,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,321 CONTRACTS: 7,321 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 10,000 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 17,321 CONTRACTS OR 1,732,100 OZ OR 53.87 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $14.50 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 53.87  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON . AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, WE HAVE ENDED THE STREAK OF 3 STRAIGHT JUMPING OF QUEUE IN THE GOLD COMPLEX AS OBVIOUSLY THERE IS NO GOLD PRESENT ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 183,900 CONTRACTS OR 18,390,000 oz OR 572.00 TONNES (20 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9195 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 572.00 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 572.00/3550 x 100% TONNES =16.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4082.67  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 7,321 DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($14.50)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,000 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,000 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 17,321 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

10,000 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 7,321 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 53.87 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A MEDIOCRE GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.50 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  31 notice(s) filed upon for 3100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,32 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY:

 

A NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1161 CONTRACTS from 238,809 UP TO 239,970 AND CLOSER TO OF A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 3810; DEC 354  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4,164 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1161  CONTRACTS TO THE 4164 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 5325 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 26.63 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST AT 10.005 MILLION OZ//

WE ALSO HAVE CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR SILVER SPREADERS.  HOWEVER DEMAND FOR NEW CONTRACTS WAS JUST TOO GREAT AND IT OVERWHELMED THE LOSS IN OI FROM THOSE SPREADERS.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE MAMMOTH  56 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 4164 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.29%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 48.59 POINTS OR 0.19%   /The Nikkei closed UP 23.34 POINTS OR 0.11%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .54%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1607 /Oil UP TO 55.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.11 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1607 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1667 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China has not cut its Iranian supply of oil after the USA waiver program ended on May 2 and the country steadily increased Iranian crude imports. And Trump is still  willing to do business with China?

(zerohedge)

ii)China/USA

Tensions rise again as Beijing blocks another USA navy request to dock in Quingdao China
(zerohedge)

iii)China/Google/Viet Nam

Google receives Trump’s message loud and clear..they are abandoning China in their smart phone production as it is now heading to VietNam
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

The pound drops as Boris Johnson asks the Queen to suspend Parliament..the reason less time to debate Brexit

(zerohedge)

ii)ITALY
Believe it or not but bankrupt Italy just saw its 10 yr bond yield drop below 1.00. There is renewed political optimism with the centre Democrats willing to join the 5 star.  In my opinion that will lead to chaos.
(zerohedge)

iib)Italy

this alliance has no chance of survival and the M5 S are rather weak on ruling.
(zerohedge)
iii)France/USA
After ridiculing Trump for asking that Putin join the G7, Macron does an about face and wishes to join Putin?
Macron warns the world that “we are nearing the end of Western Hegemony”.  I wonder what prompted that>
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Israel, Hezbollah/Iran/Iraq/Lebanon

We have been highlighting all of the following events to you.  This is a powder keg ready to explode

(Michael Snyder)

ii)Israel/Lebanon:

Israel targeted Iranian guided missile technology in its attack in Lebanon

(zerohedge)

iib)Israel/Saudi Arabia/Iran/USA

The Israeli and the Saudis are lobbying Trump not to engage in a deal with Iran as they are wilier and will outsmart Trump in his “art of the deal”.

(zerohedge)

ii c)GAZA/Israel

Originally blamed on Israel is looks like we have factions that are worse than Hamas as they had two suicide bombers attack police stations. It may have the start of a low grade civil war as Hamas roots out these extremists

(zerohedge)

iii)Turkey

Turkish had considerable numbers of Jewish folk in the country (mostly in Istanbul) and  for many years, the secular government of Turkey and the Jews had a very strong symbiotic relationship.  Now the Jews are leaving in droves

(Gatestone)

iv)TURKEY

A picture is certainly worth of a 1000 words:  Erdogan believes he has no problem turning to Russia as he purchased his S 400 defense missile system.  The problem is that Turkey is in NATO.  Will the country be booted out?  Will Turkey release the million or so migrants housed in Turkey?
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Michael Every discusses the strange events of the past few days including the Bill Dudley comments that the Fed should raise interest rates and by doing that he is thwarting Trump is his attack against China.

Quite a piece

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Argentina

Argentinian bonds could be worth only 30 cents on the dollar after a default.  This will be devastating to the west

(zerohedge)

ii)Two important points here:

1. Emerging markets are having troubles because of a lack of dollars.

2  The scarcity of dollars is a problem for the current account as they owe in dollars and just cannot find any.  (idential to the Indonesian crisis of 1997)

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)Gold has now hit a record high in both the Euro and the Australian dollar as well as 37 other currencies

(GATA/Goldcore)

ii)Bartholomeusz comments that the continued USA dominance increases the risks of an extreme event and thus he agrees with mark Carney that the dollar should be replaced with a basket of currencies.

(Bartholomeusz/Sydney morning Herald)

iii)A Chinese government newspaper now suggests a return to a gold standard

(global Times/GATA)

iv)Thom Calandra, a good mining analyst increases his offer to GATA supporters

(GATA/Thom Calandra)

v)Craig Hemke supports the view that central bank actions will continually cause the elevation of gold pricing

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

vi)Peter Schiff states that there will be no holding back on gold

(courtesy Peter Schiff)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Jawboning so far is not helping as stocks and bond yields drop

(zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/MID MORNING

STOCKS RISE FOR NO APPARENT REASON

(ZEROHEDGE)

ii)Market data/USA

Another good sign that the uSA economy is faltering

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

New Jersey

We have been pointing out to you that New Jersey is 2nd to Illinois as far as basket cases go. Now this New Jersey state President states that his state is worse than Illinois

 

(zerohedge)

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Epstein’s own lawyers state that he was not despondent the night before he died. They claim he died by an “assault”

(zerohedge)

b)Oh my!! this is big.  Barr is certainly understanding the entirety of Russiagate.  He is now after a huge number of documents linking all the major players including Obama

a must read…
(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7321 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 636,183 ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD GAIN  OF $14.50 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,000 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: OCT: 947 DEC: 9053   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  10,000 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 17,321 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,000 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 7321 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE TO NO AVAIL. WE OBVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED ZERO SHORT COVERING IN GOLD. IN AN OBVIOUS FRAUD, THE DIFFERENTIAL TODAY FROM THE PRELIMINARY GOLD OI TO THE FINAL GOLD OI WAS AN ASTOUNDING 16,871 CONTRACTS ..ALL 5 COMMISSIONERS OF THE CFTC REFUSE TO ADDRESS THIS.

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  17,321 CONTRACTS OR 1,732,100 OZ OR 53.87 TONNES.

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 75 CONTRACTS as we LOST 276 contract.  We had 263 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 13 contracts or 1300 oz of gold that will NOT stand for delivery over on this side of the pond as the previous sessions no doubt took the only supplies present. By  morphing over to London, they also accepted a fiat bonus.

 

The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 195 contracts DOWN TO 2289.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 8 contracts UP to 51,606.  DECEMBER SAW ITS OI RISE BY 7470 CONTRACTS UP TO 472,729

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 31 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  3100 OZ. (0.0096 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1161 CONTRACTS FROM 238,809 UP TO 239.970 AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196, CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A MONSTER GAIN OF 56 CENTS  IN PRICING.//

WE HAD ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING WITH OBVIOUS ZERO SUCCESS. THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF OUR SPREADERS CONTINUED IN EARNEST. HOWEVER DEMAND FOR SILVER OPEN INTEREST WAS JUST TOO GREAT AS IT DWARFED THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION IN OI. 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 2 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 2 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A FULL 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 15,469 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 29,829 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 66 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 759.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 14,496 CONTRACTS UP TO 169,147. WE HAVE TWO MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE ON FRIDAY, AUGUST 30

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

(AND ONE CONTRACT FILED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT NOT INCLUDED IN YESTERDAY’S TOTALS))

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 347,890  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  373,918  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 28/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 225.057 oz

 

Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

3086.471 0z

Loomis

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
31 notice(s)
 3100 OZ
(0.0096 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
44 contracts
(4400 oz)
1.368 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
 8696 notices
869,600 OZ
27.048 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Loomis: 3086.471  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 3086.471  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/  TODAY: a small amount  arrived

 

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks; 225.057 oz

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 225.057  oz

 

 

i) we had 1 adjustment today
Out of Brinks:  486.887 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 31 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8696) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (75 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (31 x 100 oz per contract) equals 874,000 OZ OR 27.185 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (8696 x 100 oz)  + (75)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (31 x 100 oz )which equals 874,000 oz standing OR 27.185 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We LOST 13  contracts or an additional 1300 oz will stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards as they could not find any gold over here.  As well they accepted a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 21.183 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.185  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// JUDGING BY THE HUGE SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY IS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  681,034.911 oz or  21.183 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,060,196.006 oz 250.71 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 34 MONTHS 108 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 28 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1002.200 oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2001 contracts

10,005,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into

everybody else: 0

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Delaware:  1002.200 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total 1002.200  oz

 

we had 3 adjustment :

i) Out of Delaware: 74,566.512 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Delaware and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

iii) Out of JPMorgan: 407,053.100 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of JPM

ii) Out of BNS:  1,198,496.760 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Scotia and this landed into the dealer account of Scotia

total dealer silver:  92.301 million

total dealer + customer silver:  312.063 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2001 x 5,000 oz = 10,005,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (2) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 2001 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (2)- number of notices served upon today (2)x 5000 oz equals 10,005,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL  STAND AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  195,687 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 186,228 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 186,228 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 931 million  OZ 133% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER//UNBELIEVABLE EVERY DAY WE HAVE POST 100,000 CONTRACT DAYS.!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.79% ((AUGUST 28/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.06% to NAV (AUGUST 28/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.79%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.51 TRADING 15.03/DISCOUNT 3.01

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

 

 

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AUGUST 28/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 873.32 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 652 TRADING DAYS: 62.06 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 552- TRADING DAYS: A NET 104.59 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

 

 

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/2019:

 

 

Inventory 385.440 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 2.04

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.90%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.05

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Bartholomeusz comments that the continued USA dominance increases the risks of an extreme event and thus he agrees with mark Carney that the dollar should be replaced with a basket of currencies.

(Bartholomeusz/Sydney morning Herald)

Stephen Bartholomeusz: U.S. dollar dominance increases risks of an extreme event

 Section: 

By Stephen Bartholomeusz
Sydney Morning Herald, Australia
Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s promotion of the concept of a “multi-polar” digital currency to displace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency captured most of the attention at the Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers over the weekend but his diagnosis of the flaws within the current global financial system was even more compelling.

The notion of a new digital reserve currency based on a basket of multiple digital currencies issued by a range of central banks — crudely, a central bank version of Facebook’s proposed Libra — was his proffered solution to a series of deficiencies he sees within the structure of the global financial system.

… 

Those deficiencies, Carney said, were encouraging and have been exacerbated by protectionist and populist trade policies that reduce the rate of potential global growth, increase its downside skew and bolster the likelihood of an extreme downside event.

The core of the problem is what Carney described as a “growing asymmetry at the heart of the international monetary and financial system” — the huge network effects that have kept the U.S. dollar the dominant global currency even as the U.S. share of global activity has diminished. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/us-dollar-dominance-…

end

A Chinese government newspaper now suggests a return to a gold standard

(global Times/GATA)

Chinese government newspaper suggests return to gold standard

 Section: 

10:05a ET Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The English-language edition of the Chinese government’s newspaper Global Times published on Sunday a pretty dispassionate commentary attributed to the Beijing-based public policy research consultancy Anbound (http://www.anbound.com/AboutUS.php) advocating the world’s return to a gold standard for currencies.

“From the perspective of the global financial system,” the Anbound commentary says, “the dollar is a super-currency that has a strong backing of global geopolitics.

… 

The status of the super-currency is supposed to be unshakable, but the problem is that the United States itself wants to give up this status and pursue a future characterized by President Donald Trump’s freestyle, thereby leaving the world market in uncertainty.

“What will ‘post-dollar era’ currencies look like? What currency can replace the status of the dollar?

“In fact, this will be a process of continuous trials. It would be hard for the Bretton Woods conference to succeed in the current era, so the new super-currency has to be selected through extensive experimentation.”

After dismissing cryptocurrencies and regional currencies, Anbound writes:

“What’s left is the gold standard. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the questioning of the gold standard has never stopped. The gold standard essentially represents a world financial order. When an old financial order faces collapse, it is necessary to create a new financial order.

“When the U.S. decoupled the value of the dollar from gold, it actually committed to take on the responsibility of world finance, based on which a new financial order was formed. It is this financial order that has allowed the U.S. to enjoy huge development dividends. Now the U.S. is unwilling to continue assuming and fulfilling such responsibilities for the current world financial order, and Trump has continuously intervened in the operation of the Fed and global financial market order. This development points to the necessity of seeking and building a new financial order, which is the fundamental basis for the re-emergence of the gold standard in the world financial market.

“So the gold standard is an effort by the world market and financial system to balance the ‘Trumpian future.’ It means that the U.S. can take its own path and Americans will have the right to look after themselves, but other countries will also have the right to make their own choices. In other words, this will be a process of rebalancing in the world financial market, forcing the U.S. to face up to problems. It needs to make a choice: Fulfill the obligations and responsibilities for international finance, or abandon the international status of the dollar.”

The editor of the Global Times, Hu Xijin, increasingly is cited in news reports around the world as a de-facto spokesman for the Chinese government. So his newspaper’s publication of the Anbound commentary may be taken as more evidence that China sees gold as a primary vehicle of escaping domination by the U.S. dollar.

That may explain the unusual strength of the gold price in recent months, especially since many analysts long have maintained that China has not been fully reporting increases in its gold reserves.

The Anbound commentary in the Global Times is headlined “World Needs to Prepare for Return to Gold Standard as Washington Disrupts Financial Order” and it’s posted here:

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1162628.shtml

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Thom Calandra, a good mining analyst increases his offer to GATA supporters

(GATA/Thom Calandra)

With mining shares soaring, Thom Calandra increases his offer to GATA supporters

 Section: 

10:35a ET Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With mining shares starting to soar, our friend Thom Calandra of The Calandra Report is boosting his offer to GATA supporters who subscribe to his financial letter. Those who subscribe by September 5 will receive not only Thom’s basic report but also his frequent TCR Collateral missives, which include material from his notebook about financial people, companies, and commodities.

A recent TCR Collateral e-mail is about “a mining executive who walks his talk,” Dave Cole of EMX Royalty, a company that profits from royalty arrangements with mining companies.

… 

Thom’s generous offer to GATA supporters is to split with GATA their one-year subscription fee of $169. That is, for each GATA supporter who subscribes, Thom will contribute $85 to GATA.

Being up against nearly all the money and power in the world, GATA can, of course, use the help.

Now that the monetary metals seem to be breaking out of their central bank chains, companies that produce gold, silver, and other strategic resources are starting to draw investment again, making The Calandra Report of interest even to the most demoralized followers of the monetary metals.

A note from Thom explains below.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Hello Alpha-GATAs. I have supported GATA since the early 2000s. Over the years GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, GATA Secretary/Treasurer Chris Powell, and I have shared ideas, panel appearances, and even a drink or three.

I’d like you to join The Calandra Report community. It’s been going since 2011, and since 1998 for MarketWatch.com, which I co-founded.

Here’s a small biography:

https://thomcalandra.com/about-thom-calandra/

Here’s a subscription offer exclusively for GATA supporters, like the offer we made last year.

You get the twice-weekly private reports for one year for $169 — along with our TCR Collateral letters — and GATA will receive fully half of that amount: $85.

For your review Chris has posted here —

http://gata.org/files/CalandraReport-08-04-2019.pdf

— a recent edition of TCR, which covers the weeklong resources symposium just concluded in Vancouver.

To accept this offer and help GATA, please go here:

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=588…

And please feel free to e-mail me with testimonials, ideas, and names: thom@thomcalandra.com

Thank you from northern California!

— Thom Calandra

end

Gold has now hit a record high in both the Euro and the Australian dollar as well as 37 other currencies

(GATA/Goldcore)

Gold hits record highs in euro, Australian dollar

 Section: 

12:24p ET Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne reports today that gold has hit record highs in the euro and Australian dollar and a six-year high in the U.S. dollar.

https://news.goldcore.com/gold-steadies-after-surging-to-all-time-record…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Craig Hemke supports the view that central bank actions will continually cause the elevation of gold pricing

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: From here, where?

 Section: 

4:38p ET Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing at Sprott Money, today outlines the central bank actions that are likely to keep elevating gold and silver prices. He adds that prices will get more boosting as investors note what’s happening and pile into a sector that has virtually no public participation.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “From Here, Where?” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/from-here-where-craig-hemke-27-082019.h…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATa.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Peter Schiff states that there will be no holding back on gold

(courtesy Peter Schiff)

Peter Schiff: Gold Is Not Going To Stop This Time

Via SchiffGold.com,

Gold has continued to push upward. The latest catalyst was another escalation of the trade war. Gold briefly moved above $1,550 in dollar terms. But it has done even better in relation to other currencies. In fact, the yellow metal is at record highs in nearly every currency except the dollar.

Peter Schiff appeared on RT America on Aug. 26 to talk about it. He said he thinks gold is eventually going to make new highs in the dollar as well, and this time, it’s not going to stop going up.

Peter said he doesn’t necessarily think that recession fears, in and of themselves, are pushing gold higher.

They’re worried about what the central banks, and in particular the Federal Reserve, is going to do about the next recession. That’s why the price of gold is going up – because the Fed is going to be going back to zero; they’re going to be going back to quantitative easing and all of this is good for gold.”

Peter noted that gold has been making record highs in almost every currency except the dollar.

And I think ultimately, we’re going to make a high in the dollar, probably before too long. And you know, when the Fed did quantitative easing the first time, the reason that the gold rally stopped at $1,900 was because everybody believed that the Fed had an exit strategy and that they could reverse the process, normalize interest rates, unwind their balance sheet. When they realize that they were mistaken to believe that, that there is no exit strategy, that it’s basically QE forever, that the balance sheet is going to grow into perpetuity  — gold’s not going to stop next time. It’s going to keep on going.

As far as the trade war goes, Peter called it “a bit of a distraction.”

The US economy is going into recession regardless of what happens with trade… The trade war certainly makes a bad situation worse, but it was a bad situation anyway. And I think a lot of people have some false optimism that all we have to do is end the trade war and we’ll avert recession. That’s not going to happen.”

Peter said he doesn’t expect the Chinese to simply surrender in the trade war. In fact, he sees signs that the Chinese are digging in their heels and believes the trade war could continue on beyond the next election.

Peter said he doesn’t know what the Trump administration could do to stave off the recession. He reiterated that recession is inevitable and the problem is the more they delay it, the worse it’s going to be. He said he thinks the downturn will start before the election and Trump likely won’t be reelected.

I think the Fed will do what it can to avert it. They will go back to zero. They will do more QE. We may even get some type of tax cut or increased government spending in a vain effort to try to stimulate the economy. But that’s not the type of stimulus the economy needs. We need less government, not more government. We actually need higher interest rates, not lower interest rates. But even if we do the right thing, that’s not going to avert the recession because the recession is part of the cure, and we need to embrace it, not resist it. Unfortunately, politicians will never do that because they are more concerned about their reelection that the long-term health of  the economy.”

So, where should the average Joe put his money? Gold?

Well, I think gold’s going up whether or not the stock markets crash. In fact, the only way to prevent the stock markets from crashing is to print a lot of money and slash rates, which is really good for gold. So yes, people should be buying gold. Don’t think you’ve missed the boat if it’s at $1,530 and you haven’t bought. We’re going a lot higher. Remember, we were at $1,900, so we’re well off the highs. There aren’t that many assets that you can find that are off their highs like gold, other than silver, which is probably an even better buy. It’s much further off its high.”

Peter said investors should stay away from the dollar, not only because of the looming recession, but because its days as a reserve currency could be numbered. Peter noted that even the Bank of England president has said the dollar should no longer be the reserve.

Gold is going to be the reserve. Gold was the reserve before the dollar and it will be the reserve after the dollar. So, people should buy it now. Don’t wait for that to happen because when we remonetize gold, the price will be much, much higher than it is today.”

end

My goodness: this is a first for me:

the gold bars are real gold and the weights are perfect except it is fake branded.

illegal mining necessitates illegal branding.

(Reuters)

Exclusive: Fake-branded bars slip dirty gold into world markets

LONDON (Reuters) – A forgery crisis is quietly roiling the world’s gold industry.

Gold bars fraudulently stamped with the logos of major refineries are being inserted into the global market to launder smuggled or illegal gold, refining and banking executives tell Reuters. The fakes are hard to detect, making them an ideal fund-runner for narcotics dealers or warlords.

In the last three years, bars worth at least $50 million stamped with Swiss refinery logos, but not actually produced by those facilities, have been identified by all four of Switzerland’s leading gold refiners and found in the vaults of JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the major banks at the heart of the market in bullion, said senior executives at gold refineries, banks and other industry sources.

Four of the executives said at least 1,000 of the bars, of a standard size known as a kilobar for their weight, have been found. That is a small share of output from the gold industry, which produces roughly 2 million to 2.5 million such bars each year. But the forgeries are sophisticated, so thousands more may have gone undetected, according to the head of Switzerland’s biggest refinery.

“The latest fake bars … are highly professionally done,” said Michael Mesaric, the chief executive of refinery Valcambi. He said maybe a couple of thousand have been found, but the likelihood is that there are “way, way, way more still in circulation. And it still exists, and it still works.”

Fake gold bars – blocks of cheaper metal plated with gold – are relatively common in the gold industry and often easy to detect.

The counterfeits in these cases are subtler: The gold is real, and very high purity, with only the markings faked. Fake-branded bars are a relatively new way to flout global measures to block conflict minerals and prevent money-laundering. Such forgeries pose a problem for international refiners, financiers and regulators as they attempt to purge the world of illicit trade in bullion.

High gold prices have triggered a boom in informal and illegal mining since the mid-2000s. Without the stamp of a prestigious refinery, such gold would be forced into underground networks, or priced at a discount. By pirating Swiss and other major brands, metal that has been mined or processed in places that would not otherwise be legal or acceptable in the West – for example in parts of Africa, Venezuela or North Korea – can be injected into the market, channeling funds to criminals or regimes that are sanctioned.

It is not clear who is making the bars found so far, but executives and bankers told Reuters they think most originate in China, the world’s largest gold producer and importer, and have entered the market via dealers and trading houses in Hong Kong, Japan and Thailand. Once accepted by a mainstream gold dealer in these places, they can quickly spread into supply chains worldwide.

Word of the forged bars began to circulate quietly in gold industry circles after the first half of 2017, when J.P. Morgan, one of five banks which finalize trades in the $10 trillion-a-year London gold market, found that its vaults contained at least two gold kilobars stamped with the same identification number, 10 people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Reuters couldn’t determine exactly where the vaults were.

J.P. Morgan declined to directly address questions about the fraudulent bullion, or comment on any of the details in this story. “It’s our standard practice to immediately alert the appropriate authorities and refineries should we discover mismarked gold kilobars during routine checks and procedures,” the bank said in a statement. “Fortunately, we have yet to have an incident resulting in a loss to the firm or a client.”

The Shanghai Gold Exchange, which regulates China’s gold market, said in a statement it was not aware of counterfeit bars being made in or transported through China. “The Shanghai Gold Exchange has established a thorough delivery and storage system. The process for gold (material) to enter the warehouse is strictly managed and in compliance with the regulations,” it said.

When others who store and trade such gold found forged bars, they returned them to the refiner concerned, some of whom have operations in Asia. Bars returned to Switzerland have been reported by refiners to the Swiss authorities who impounded them, refiners said.

Swiss Customs said 655 forged bars were reported in 2017 and 2018 to local prosecutors in Ticino, a region bordering Italy that contains three of Switzerland’s four large refineries. “In all cases the marking of the 1 kg bars were fake,” a Customs official said by email, without commenting further.

The public prosecutor in Ticino confirmed it had received three reports of gold bars with suspect serial numbers, but said it could not disclose more information. The police in Neuchatel, where Switzerland’s other large refinery is located, said neither it nor local prosecutors there had received reports of any forged bars. Switzerland’s Attorney General said its office was not concerned with the topic at present.

Refinery executives said forged bars had also been reported in other countries.

HANDY FORMAT

Kilobars are small – around the size and thickness of a cellphone – unlike the roughly 12.5-kilo gold ingots typically stored in the vaults of the world’s central banks. Kilobars are the most common form of gold in circulation around the world, passing fluidly between banks, refineries, dealers and individuals. The identifying features stamped onto a bar’s surface include the logo of the refinery that made it, its purity, weight, and a unique identification number. Each one is worth around $50,000 at current prices.

In parts of Southeast Asia, it’s not uncommon for individuals to use gold instead of cash for big purchases such as real estate, bankers and analysts said. “It’s the only investment tool that goes from institutional investors like banks to the public and back again,” said an executive at a Swiss refinery.

In China, almost all exports of gold are banned as part of the country’s strict, longstanding controls on capital movements. That, market analysts say, has spurred demand among well-to-do Chinese who want to send money out of the country to find ways to smuggle it.

An estimated 400 to 600 tonnes of gold are snuck every year across the border from mainland China to Hong Kong in car boots and delivery vans, most of it in kilobars, said Cameron Alexander, head of precious metals research at consultants GFMS Refinitiv, which conducts detailed studies of global gold flows. Hong Kong Customs said it had received no complaints in the past decade about kilobars with forged trademarks.

Japan also has a long-established problem of gold smuggling in which the forged brands could be put to use, refinery executives said.

Swiss brands are not the only ones to have been pirated, but are the most targeted due to their global reach, executives said. Switzerland’s four largest refineries – Valcambi, PAMP, Argor-Heraeus and Metalor – process around 2,000-2,500 tonnes of gold a year, worth around $100 billion. Their trademarks are among the most common and trusted in the industry. PAMP and Metalor declined to comment on the record; Argor said there was always a risk brands would be counterfeited, and recommended people buy bars only from trusted distributors.

For recipients, the pirated bars pose a compliance threat: Anyone who holds such metal – including jewelers, banks and electronics firms – risks inadvertently violating global rules designed to keep metal of unknown or criminal origin out of circulation. The rules aim to staunch gold supplies that fund conflict, terrorism or organized crime, damage the environment or undermine national governments.

Governments in America and Europe are legislating to force banks and manufacturers of items such as jewelry and electronics to take more responsibility for their mineral suppliers. For example, a clause in the Dodd-Frank Act adopted by the United States obliges U.S. companies to disclose whether gold they use has come from countries in central Africa where it could have been mined to fund conflict.

Richard Hayes, chief executive of the Perth Mint in Australia, one of the world’s largest refiners, said his company had not encountered fraudulently branded Perth Mint kilobars. But, given the experience of other refiners, he has no doubt they are circulating.

“It’s a wonderful way of laundering conflict gold,” he said. “The gold is genuine, but it’s not ethically sourced … They look completely genuine, they assay correctly, and they weigh correctly as well.”

The perfect appearance makes the bars highly effective. “Because gold is completely fungible,” Hayes said, “you can bleed it into genuine production. It’s very, very hard to control.”

J.P. Morgan supplies gold from major refiners for many of the world’s biggest banks, jewelers and investors, and the discovery of the forged bars in its vaults triggered a full review of the gold it held, market sources said. One said this sweep unearthed around 50 fraudulently-branded bars. Another said it found several hundred. J.P. Morgan did not comment.

People in the industry familiar with the matter said the number of forged bars, and their high quality, meant their production must be well organized. An analysis of the bars’ movements suggested they had been made in Asia, probably China, they said. But the gold in them could have been melted and re-melted after being mined anywhere.

J.P. Morgan responded to its discovery by deciding to stop buying any gold in Asia that had not come freshly made from a small clutch of refineries it trusted, five people familiar with the decision said. J.P. Morgan declined to comment.

Other banks have also restricted gold purchases in Asia, 15 people in the industry said. “Anything that has even the chance of being iffy they are not going to be involved in,” said Alexander, the analyst at GFMS Refinitiv.

Reuters approached five large banks that trade gold in Asia, several of which have vaulting facilities. HSBC declined to comment in detail but a spokesman said it only bought bars directly from a small group of refiners accredited, like the Swiss, by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). It said it had found no counterfeits. UBS did not comment on counterfeit bars, but said it only sells gold processed by LBMA-accredited refiners. Standard Chartered declined comment, saying “this is not an issue that affects us.” ANZ said it buys previously cast bars from “a select group of counterparties” and its policy, which had not been changed by the counterfeits, was to re-melt and recast them before selling them on. No one from ICBC Standard was available to comment.

THREE NINES

The number of fake bars being found has dropped since 2017. But refiners say the forgeries are becoming increasingly sophisticated, so the problem may have grown.

In 2017, Valcambi’s Mesaric said, hundreds of bars were found stamped with the same identification number. The bars’ markings also had spelling errors, flaws in logo images, or print that was too deep or shallow, other refiners said.

Today, the forgeries are more precisely made, using what appears to be sophisticated machinery, Mesaric said. There can still be giveaways, such as indentations from a robotic gripper or repeated imperfections in a cast mould. But these are easy to miss.

The most reliable way to identify the fakes is to test their purity. Gold is available on world markets in varying levels of purity: For professionally produced kilobars, the most common standard is 99.99% – known in the trade as “four nines.” An analysis of three counterfeit-branded bars by one Swiss refinery showed that two of them were 99.98% pure, and the third 99.90%.

Though short of legitimate professional standards, even that level of purity is difficult to achieve, and takes advanced equipment to detect.

Swiss Customs said of the 655 bars reported to local prosecutors in Ticino, the purity fell slightly below 99.99% in some cases.

“The level of counterfeit is becoming really good. Even for us it is hard to tell,” said a Swiss refinery executive who spoke on condition of anonymity. “They are, however, slightly less pure because the people doing the counterfeits don’t have the equipment we have.”

The refineries are responding to the problem with technology.

Metalor this year began to put spots of tamper-proof ink on its bars. Like the security features on banknotes, these display different features when viewed under certain light or through filters. PAMP and Valcambi perform a microsurface scan of their bars and supply machines or phone apps that can scan each one and verify whether their surfaces match the refinery’s records. Argor said its bars had various security features, but declined to elaborate for security reasons.

The LBMA, which accredits global refineries to vouch for the quality of their output, is drawing up standards for security features. It has also proposed a global database containing information about every kilobar produced, as a way of cross-checking the products to add an extra layer of security. “Any security feature can be duplicated that’s on the bar itself,” said the LBMA’s chief executive, Ruth Crowell.

But most of the refiners’ security features have only been introduced recently, and no database is planned until 2020 at the earliest

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1607/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1667   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.29%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 48.59 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 23.34 POINTS OR .11%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.12/Euro FALLS TO 1.1086

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.28/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.72/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.64 and Brent: 60.11

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.72%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.99% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.05%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.71: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.74

3k Gold at $1546.00 silver at: 18.47   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 31/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.77

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.72 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9811 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0878 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.72%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.46% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.92%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8021..

“Hope Gives Way To Realism”: Global Stocks Slump As Fears Return; 30Y Yield Crashes To All Time Low

Global markets and US equity futures slumped as traders turned their attention to rising odds of a no-deal Brexit and awaited new developments in the increasingly unpredictable Sino-American trade war, while a deepening inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve a day earlier reignited worries over the possibility of recession, sending investors towards safe-haven assets from the Japanese yen to gold, while the 30Y Treasury yield tumbled to a new all time low amid a burst of overnight Asian buying.

 

On Tuesday, the U.S. yield curve inverted to levels not seen since 2007, stoking a sell-off on Wall Street, as 2s10s inversion has historically been the best predictor of a U.S. recession.

“Hope gave way to pragmatic realism about the outlook for the China-U.S. trade dispute,” Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro, wrote in a note Wednesday. “The market is still trying to get a feel for where it’s at and what it thinks as we get closer to the deadline for the tariffs this week.”

 

MSCI’s world equity index, fell 0.1%, dragged down by European shares. S&P500 futures traded in a range between 2865 and 2875 before sliding to session lows as US traders entered the office…

 

… while technology companies and insurers led a decline on the Stoxx Europe 600 index, which dropped as much as -0.9%, as bourses in Paris and Frankfurt underperformed.

“It’s become very difficult for investors to garner an idea of where we go to next,” said CMC Markets chief strategist Michael Hewson. “The weakness in bond yields and the strength in havens speaks to an investor that is becoming increasingly risk-averse.”

UK stocks bucked the trend, with the FTSE gaining sharply as sterling dived 1% on Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s move to restrict parliamentary time before Britain’s planned departure from the European Union. Johnson will limit parliament’s ability to derail his Brexit plans by unveiling his new legislative agenda on Oct. 14, a government source told Reuters, stoking fears of an economically disruptive no-deal departure from the EU. The pound, already trading lower on the day, was last down 0.6% at $1.2210.

In Italy, the FTSE All Italia Bank Index gained as much as 1.3%, outperforming the broader market, amid news that UniCredit is said to be exploring taking direct control of its holding in Turkish lender Yapi Kredi. UniCredit rose as much as 2%, among the SX7P top performers today.

Meanwhile, on the political front, the center-right Democratic Party leader signaled support for a potential coalition with Five Star. As a result Italy’s bonds surged after Five Star Movement and Democratic Party back Giuseppe Conte – who just resigned days earlier as part of his feud with the League’s Salvini – as Prime Minister, taking an important step toward forming a new government without a snap election.

Thanks to this political optimism, Italy’s 10-year yield fell 12bps to 1.01%, a record low, while the BTP-bund spread narrowed 10bps to 173bps, the tightest since May 2018.

 

Earlier in the session, stocks nudged higher in Sydney and Seoul, were little changed in Tokyo, and slipped in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Material producers climbed and health care firms retreated, as China prepared for the worst in trade negotiations with the U.S. The Topix closed little changed as real estate firms rallied, countering declines in machinery makers. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.3%, dragged by Kweichow Moutai and financial giants, even as China rolled out a series of guidelines to encourage consumption, easing car-purchase restrictions. India’s Sensex fell 0.8%, driven by HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries, after a gauge showed investment and consumption worsened in the country.

The 10-year Treasury yield stayed below 1.50%, near a three-year low, after falling on Tuesday to 6 basis points below the two-year yield, with the 10-year yield close to three-year low touched on Monday. Longer-dated bond yields also fell, with the 30-year Treasury yield dropping to a record low of 1.9039%, and was last down 6 basis points on the day.

 

Elsewhere, in rates, bunds rose and curves bull flattened as equities fall; 30-year swap spreads lead tightening, pointing to continued large receiving flows in euro swaps. The German 10y yield dropped -2bps to -0.72%; Sept. bund futures +30 ticks to 179.24; France 10y -3bps to -0.44%; Italy 10y -12bps to 1.02%. British Gilts rose, outperform bunds and Treasuries by 2bps and 3bps respectively as PM Johnson seeks to suspend Parliament in a move that hampers lawmakers’ attempts to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

In FX, sterling was the biggest mover as noted above, after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he will ask the Queen to suspend parliament from mid-September to mid-October, increasing the risk of a no-deal Brexit. The safe haven yen traded at 105.78 per dollar. It held its gains from the previous day, when it advanced 0.35% to a 7-month peak amid rising trade fears. The dollar index gained 0.1% to 98.094, while the euro was flat.

Crude oil extended gains after API showed a bigger-than-expected drop in American crude inventories and as Iran all but ruled out a meeting with the U.S. Gold turned positive after starting the day in the red, and was last flat at $1,542.91. Silver gained 1.2%, putting it on course for its fourth straight day of gains.

Today’s expected data include mortgage applications, which tumbled 6.2%. Elastic, Five Below, Okta, and PVH are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,861.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 372.78
  • MXAP up 0.05% to 151.10
  • MXAPJ down 0.07% to 486.98
  • Nikkei up 0.1% to 20,479.42
  • Topix up 0.04% to 1,490.35
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 25,615.48
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,893.76
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 37,353.64
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,500.64
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 1,941.09
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to -0.701%
  • Euro down 0.05% to $1.1085
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 18.4 bps to 0.794%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.085%
  • Brent futures up 0.9% to $60.04/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,539.84
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 98.16

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Italian President Sergio Mattarella meets with the country’s main political leaders on Wednesday in a last-ditch bid to carve out a viable majority in parliament and avert a snap election. Negotiations between the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party have stalled repeatedly
  • President Trump’s credibility has become a key obstacle for China to reach a lasting deal with the U.S., according to Chinese officials familiar with the talks who asked not to be identified
  • Members of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee are pressuring Trump to sanction Turkey for the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft missile system
  • U.K. government sees an opportunity to restart Brexit negotiations with the EU after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s meetings last week with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron
  • Oil extended gains after a report showed a bigger-than-expected drop in American crude inventories and as Iran all but ruled out a meeting with the U.S.
  • Australia’s sovereign wealth fund has reiterated future returns won’t be as strong as recent years, joining a chorus of big investors concerned about the investment outlook
  • Wary of Trump, China is preparing for the worst case in trade talks. After a weekend of confusing signals, Trump’s credibility has become a key obstacle for China to reach a lasting deal with the U.S., according to Chinese officials familiar with the talks who asked not to be identified
  • Emerging market investors are piling back into safer asset classes as mounting trade tensions spell the end of this year’s clamor for yield. Fears of global slowdown — the fallout of Trump’s trade war — and the collapse of the Argentine market have dealt a blow to junk and local-currency bonds this month

Asian equity markets struggled for direction after the subdued performance on Wall St, where the major indices failed to sustain initial gains amid the recent mixed signals on US-China trade and as the US yield curve inversion deepened. ASX 200 (+0.4%) was led higher by strength in tech and miners although gains were capped by weakness amid telecoms as and with earnings in focus, while Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) also lacked firm direction amid an uneventful currency. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) traded tentatively and failed to benefit from the government’s recent announced measures to boost consumption with markets wary after the recent flip-flopping in the US-China trade saga, while a neutral PBoC liquidity operation and deluge of earnings ahead of the Big 4 bank results added to the cautious tone. Finally, 10yr JGBs were slightly higher as super-long yields declined to multi-year lows with both 30yr and 40yr JGB yields at the lowest since July 2016, while the moves also followed the bull flattening seen in their US counterparts where the 2s/10s inversion briefly widened past -5bps.

Top Asian News

  • Indonesia Sees Second Wave of Trade War Fallout as More Damaging
  • Hong Kong Tycoon Kadoorie Urges Effort to Ease Youth’s ‘Despair’

European equities are lower across the board [Eurostoxx 50 -0.6%] with the exception of the FTSE 100 (+0.3%) as exporters benefit from a weaker Sterling amid reports that UK PM Johnson is said to be moving to block attempts by pro-EU MPs from making a no-deal Brexit impossible. Sectors are mostly in the red with underperformance seen in the IT sectors, potentially amid reports that Permira is planning a Frankfurt listing for software company TeamViewer GmbH this year which could be the Germany’s largest IPO in almost 20 years. Meanwhile, the energy sector is the marked outperformer as oil prices are underpinned by a larger-than-forecast draw in API crude inventories. In terms of individual movers, H&M (+4.4%) shares are at the top of the Stoxx 600 amid an upgrade at RBC. Meanwhile, losses in UK homebuilders exacerbated amid the aforementioned move by UK PM Johnson. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (+1.2%) trades higher after an FDA granted an orphan drug designation and after its Breztro Aerosphere Phase III trial met its primary endpoint.

Top European News

  • Banks Near Tipping Point as Negative Rates Draw Danish Warning

In FX, a week may be a long time in politics, but for Sterling 24 hours is all it has taken to turn from major outperformer to laggard as Brexit positivity evaporates and the prospect of a no confidence vote in the UK Government rises on the back of PM Johnson’s request to the Queen to suspend Parliament. In short, the move is being framed as a tactical decision to head off legislative attempts to stop a no deal Brexit by curtailing the amount of time between the now delayed Queen’s speech (October 14 from 7 originally) and October 31 Article 50 extension date. In response, Cable tumbled from just under 1.2300 to circa 1.2156 and not far from technical support around 1.2150 in the form of the 21 DMA at 1.2149, while Eur/Gbp rebounded almost a full point towards 0.9125 before the Pound pared some lost ground.

  • USD – The Dollar is obviously deriving indirect impetus from Sterling’s demise, but also firmer against all G10 counterparts bar the Euro that is holding close to 1.1100 on more progress towards a new Italian political partnership between the PD and 5-Star Movement. Hence, the DXY is consolidating above the 98.000 level, albeit within a confined 98.173-003 range ahead of a couple of Fed speakers and the latest Beige Book.
  • NZD/CAD/AUD/JPY/CHF – As noted above, all weaker vs the Greenback, albeit to varying degrees as the Kiwi slips back below 0.6350 and towards 1.0650 against the Aussie that is pivoting 0.6750 and only partially impeded by overnight data showing considerably weaker than forecast Q2 construction work. Meanwhile, the Loonie is still straddling 1.3300 as fragile/weak risk sentiment offsets firm crude prices, with the Yen and Franc regaining some safe-haven allure, but remaining off recent peaks, as Usd/Jpy hovers near 105.75 and Usd/Chf meanders between 0.9810-30. Note, several hefty option expiries could have a bearing on direction into Wednesday’s NY cut including 1.8 bn in Eur/Usd at the 1.1100 strike, 1 bn in Aud/Usd from 0.6700-10 and 1.1 bn in Usd/Jpy between 105.75-80.
  • EM – Broad weakness vs the Buck, but the Lira deriving comfort from another significant improvement in Turkish sentiment and this time on the consumer front. Indeed, Usd/Try is probing 5.8000 support even though Turkey and Russia are pressing ahead with more arms deal plans and the US House of Foreign Affairs Committee is urging President Trump to sanction Turkey. Conversely, the Rouble and Rand are not benefiting from the rebound in Brent and latest SA economic package respectively.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are higher as prices are underpinned by last night’s API crude inventory data which printed a significantly larger-than-forecast draw in API crude stocks (-11.1mln vs. Exp. -2.1mln). WTI futures reside north of 55.50/bbl ahead of its 200 and 50 DMAs at 560.7/bbl and 56.53/bbl respectively, whist its Brent counterpart remains just above 60/bbl. ING point out that the WTI/Brent Arb has narrowed further after initially feeling pressure from China’s 5% tariff on US oil. Elsewhere, gold prices remain flat just under the 1550/oz mark whilst copper are modestly firmer with the red metal back above the 2.55/lb mark. Finally, Dalian iron ore prices fell to the lowest in 2 ½ months as falling steel prices continue to raise concerns regarding iron ore demand. Morgan Stanley lowers oil demand growth forecasts: 2019 to 800k BPD (Prev. 1.0mln BPD), 2020 to 1.0mln BPD (Prev. 1.4mln BPD), Brent prices are now expected to fluctuate around USD 60/bbl (Prev. USD 65/bbl)

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.9%
  • 12:20pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks to West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  • 5:30pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks at RBNZ/IMF Conference in New Zealand

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Given the UK temperature before I went on holiday was at record levels and given the temperature since I’ve come back has returned to fresh late August records my daughter Maisie asked me last night whether holidays abroad were actually to cool down. She only seems to know hot English summers and miraculous England cricketing victories. I don’t know how to break the cruel realities of the world to her.

I might also have to tell her that bond yields can also go up as well as well as down as a peripheral led rally in Europe saw yields break lower again yesterday. Indeed 10y Bunds closed at -0.693% and -2.7bps on the day while OATs ended -4.2bps lower at -0.418%. It was BTPs which really stood out though, rallying -18.4bps to 1.133% and the most since July 3rd. That means BTPs are now within 10bps of the 2016 yield lows of 1.042% while the spread to Bunds is now down to 183bps and the tightest since May last year. Those moves seemed to bleed through to the Treasury market where 10y yields ended -6.4bps lower at 1.471%. We are now only just over 11bps from the all time low in summer 2016 and have actually only traded lower than current levels on 18 days in the whole of US history covering 11 days in mid-2016 and 7 days during the Euro sovereign crisis in 2012.

Meanwhile the 2s10s curve flattened -4.7bps to a new cycle low of -5.3bps (c -4bps in Asia). The inversion is in danger of being locked in. Whether the Fed wants to or whether it’s even merited, they may have to cut 50bps in September to encourage the yield curve back into positive territory. An interesting conundrum for them.

While the Fed probably wants to focus on their macro objectives, they received another broadside in the press yesterday, this time from former NY Fed President Dudley. In a Bloomberg opinion piece, he openly questioned if the Fed should ease policy to counteract the negative effects of the ongoing trade uncertainty. He said that “Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the US and global economy, to the Fed’s independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives. If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.” Truly unchartered waters for an ex-Fed official.

The driver of the moves in BTPs came as coalition talks between Five Star and the PD gained momentum, even if there was some posturing from Five Star and threats to end the talks unless there was a commitment from PD to publically commit to a new government led by Conte. This morning Italian daily Corriere della Sera is reporting that the PD has accepted Five Star’s demand to keep Conte as premier but is holding out for a larger number of ministries in exchange – possibly including finance – and also no Di Maio in government. More news likely on this story today.

Not to be outdone though, Greek 10y yields rallied -13.8bps yesterday following the announcement on Monday that the last of the capital controls were to be lifted from September 1st. Greek equities also closed higher, with the main stock market finishing +0.32%.

The rest of equity markets in Europe also ended slightly higher with the FTSE MIB (+1.52%) the obvious outperformer with an index of Italian Banks also up +1.08%. In the US the mood was a little more negative with the S&P 500 (-0.32%), DOW (-0.47%) and NASDAQ (-0.34%) fading to close lower. The only substantive news was the reiteration by China’s foreign ministry that they are unaware of any high-level phone calls between the two sides that moved negotiations forward. They were just reiterating their previous statement, but it still poured some cold water on any signs of progress as per Mr Trunp’s G7 remarks just before the European open on Monday. Cyclical sectors mostly underperformed in the US – financials in particular ending down -0.98%.

Overnight, Asian markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (+0.15%) and Kospi (+0.59%) up while the Shanghai Comp (-0.33%) is down and the Hang Seng (+0.05%) is trading flattish. As for FX, all G10 currencies are trading weak (range c. -0.1% – -0.3%) this morning and the onshore Chinese yuan is trading flattish at 7.1575. Yields on 10y JGBs are trading down -0.7bps to -0.285% and are within touching distance of their September 2016 low of -0.295%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.38% and WTI oil prices are +1.04% this morning on a report from the American Petroleum Institute highlighting that US crude stockpiles fell by 11.1mn barrels last week and as Iran all but ruled out a meeting with the US until sanctions are lifted.

In other news yesterday, the economic data in the US ended up surprising to the upside. That was particularly the case for the August consumer confidence report which saw consumer confidence print at 135.1 compared to expectations of 129.0. The present situations component jumped 6.7pts to 177.2 which shows some resilience to the recent trade noise, and in fact puts it at the highest level since 2000. The expectations component did nudge a little lower though. On the other hand another plus was the jobs-plentiful/jobs hard-to-get series which rose to the highest since 2000 too. Interestingly the data goes against that of the University of Michigan survey and in fact the gap between the two consumer confidence readings is the largest since 1969 and second largest on record.

Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index climbed yesterday, jumping 13pts to +1 in August (vs. -4 expected). So that further complicates the picture from the mixed PMIs and regional Fed surveys. The only other data came from the housing market where the S&P CoreLogic house price index rose +0.04% mom in June and a little less than expected.

As for the data that was released in Europe yesterday, in Germany we got confirmation that Q2 GDP contracted -0.1% qoq, unrevised from the preliminary estimate. In the eyes of our economists, this confirmed their “technical” but no “severe recession” situation in Germany with their expectation that the economy contracted by around 1/4% qoq in Q3. Meanwhile, in France the August confidence indicators were broadly on the positive side with beats for the business and manufacturing indicators, while consumer confidence printed in line.

Elsewhere, the ECB’s Guindos said yesterday that the ECB “has to act with determination” when asked about negative rates and also that the ECB will have to be much more data dependent and take market expectations “with a pinch of salt”. A reminder that the ECB meeting is just over 2 weeks away now on September 12th, kick-starting a period of 7 days in which we’ll have central bank meetings at the ECB, Fed, BoJ and BoE.

To the day ahead now, where the data this morning includes the July import price index reading in Germany and July M3 money supply reading for the Euro Area. There’s no data due in the US however we are due to hear from the Fed’s Barkin and Daly this evening at separate events.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.29%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 48.59 POINTS OR 0.19%   /The Nikkei closed UP 23.34 POINTS OR 0.11%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .54%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1607 /Oil UP TO 55.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.11 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1607 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1667 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China has not cut its Iranian supply of oil after the USA waiver program ended on May 2 and the country steadily increased Iranian crude imports. And Trump is still  willing to do business with China?

(zerohedge)

China’s Oil Imports From Iran Are Rising, New Customs Data Shows

Much anticipated data by China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) detailing the country’s oil imports has been released on Tuesday, and shows that China has not cut its Iranian supply after the US waiver program ended on May 2nd, but has steadily increased Iranian crude imports since the official end of the waiver extension, up from May and June levels.

It’s been no secret that China continues to play a large part in preventing Trump’s desire to take Iran’s crude exports down to zero, despite a noticeable drop on its Iran oil imports compared to the summer prior (sinking almost 60% in June compared to a year earlier).

The new GAC data shows China imported over 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Iran in July, which is up 4.7% from the month before. On a metric-ton basis, Iranian inflows rose 8.2% from June, but this marked a drop of 71.9% on the year, according to S&Pconversion figures (China’s GAC releases customs data in metric tons).

 

File image via Business Standard

China’s June crude shipments from Iran totaled 855,638, averaging to 208,205 barrels per day (bpd) two months after Trump ended the waiver program, compared with 254,016 bpd in May, according the July GAC figures.

Simultaneously, China’s oil purchases from Iran’s rival Saudi Arabia have during this hot summer of “tanker wars” soared to record volume, in June reaching an all-time high of 1.89 million barrels a day, andin July dipping slightly to 1.65 million b/d. Thus far for the first seven months of 2019 Saudi Arabia has been China’s top crude supplier, with Russia and Iraq second and third.

Meanwhile, the United States hit the top ten list of China’s suppliers for the first time since August 2018, the eighth largest supplier in July, jumping 45% year on year to 1.53 million metric tons, according to S&P analysis of the Chinese customs figures.

 

Chart: China’s General Administration of Customs figures for July 2019, via S&P Global Platts

Crucially for Tehran, China remains Iran’s largest oil importer and a crucial lifeline for the regime’s economic survival. Over the past five years China has remained the largest importer of crude oil in the world (previously it was the US).

July’s official customs data was published just after Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing while kicking off a tour of Asia to bolster support. This marked the third time the Iranian FM has visited China this year, as the top diplomat tries to reinforce Chinese support of Iran in its conflict with the US.

Via Forbes: In 2017 and 2018, China imported between 500,000 and 600,000 bpd of Iranian oil during the months of January and February. Throughout 2018, Chinese imports of Iranian Oil averaged 585,000 bpd, according to Chinese Customs Data. S&P states that those numbers have since dropped to 150,000-220,000 bpd in June and July, but these reduced figures still do not satisfy the State Department’s demand for a total cessation of Iranian oil purchases.

* * *

As we detailed previously, Zarif urged his Chinese counterpart at a meeting in Beijing on Monday for Iran and China to join forces to counter unilateralism and “contempt for international law”. While Zarif did not mention the U.S. directly in opening remarks to Wang Yi at a state guesthouse, he appeared to be referencing the administration of President Donald Trump.

Wang said in his opening remarks that “unilateralism is rising and power politics is emerging. Facing this situation, China as a responsible country agrees to work with Iran and other countries to work together for multilateralism, the basic rules of international politics and uphold the rightful interests of each country.”

During his trip to China, which has emerged as an obvious ally in Iran’s feud with Trump, Zarif was said to focus on security in the Strait of Hormuz. It is unclear if he was successful, however if one more Chinese warships unexpectedly appear in the Persian Gulf, we will know the answer.

end
China/USA
Tensions rise again as Beijing blocks another USA navy request to dock in Quingdao China
(zerohedge)

Beijing Blocks Another US Navy Request For Port Call As Tensions Rise

In the latest sign of rising tensions between Washington and Beijing, a Navy warship has been denied a port visit in the Eastern Chinese city of Quingdao on Sunday, the US 7th Fleet revealed.

The denial is the latest from China, which has denied several such requests stretching back to late last year as the trade war has escalated.

“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] denied the US Navy’s request to visit the Qingdao Port,” Commander Reann Mommsen, public affairs officer for the US Seventh Fleet, said in a statement to the press Wednesday that was picked up by the SCMP.

Mommsen didn’t specify which warship had been denied entry, or say exactly when the request had been refused, referring all further questions to Beijing.

News of the blocked visit, first reported by Reuters, comes not long after the latest ‘freeop’ in the Taiwan Strait. The US has increased the number of such missions, intended to show its insistence that the Pacific remains an open waterway, as Beijing has sought to crack down on all of its ‘wayward’ provinces under the ‘one country, two systems’ mantra. Earlier this year, President Xi hinted in a speech that Beijing would reunify Taiwan with the rest of China, even if it meant doing so by force. And as pro-democracy protests continue in Hong Kong, Beijing is putting pressure on employers to stop their employees from participating.

A source close to the Chinese navy confirmed the rejection, blaming the state of the current US-China relationship for the refusal.

“Hasn’t the [US’s] application to visit Hong Kong just been rejected?” the source asked, speaking rhetorically.

Beijing has blamed the US and the West for funding some of the unrest in Hong Kong, which has dragged on for three full months now, a claim the US has denounced as “ludicrous.”

Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military analyst, said the refusal should be expected given the worsening bilateral ties.

“Many bilateral exchanges are bound to deteriorate when countries’ ties worsen, such as during the China-US trade war. And now coupled with the Hong Kong unrest, many exchanges [between China and the US] have been downgraded,” Zhou said.

Liu Weidong, from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, echoed a similar view and said a visit from a US warship would be ‘meaningless at present.’

“Now the US is very provocative…so China doesn’t want to welcome its warship,” Liu said.

Ever since Beijing denied President Trump’s claims about phone calls taking place between the two countries’ trade delegations, suspicions about the prospects for trade talks have taken a turn for the worse, particularly after Trump announced on Friday that he would raise tariffs even further.

This came after Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs of between 10% and 15% on some $75 billion in US goods.

Washington also recently labeled Beijing a currency manipulator for the first time since the 1990s, raising fears about an all-out economic cold war.

END
China/Google/Viet Nam
Google receives Trump’s message loud and clear..they are abandoning China in their smart phone production as it is now heading to VietNam
(zerohedge)

Google Latest Company To Abandon China, Shifts Smartphone Production To Vietnam

Google has reportedly become the latest company to aggressively move production out of China and in to Vietnam as it hopes to create a “low-cos supply chain in Southeast Asia” that “will serve as a springboard for its growing hardware ambitions,” according to Nikkei Asian Review.

Google, which is working with a partner to manufacture its smartphones, started work on converting an old Nokia factory in the North Vietnamese province of Bac Ninh where it will produce most of its Pixel phones, per two people familiar with the company’s plans. The area has a special significance in the history of smartphone development: It is the same province where Samsung built its first smartphone supply chain roughly ten years ago.

All of this history means Google will have access to an army of workers experienced.

The push to develop a Vietnamese production base reflects the twin pressures of higher Chinese labor costs and the spiraling tariffs resulting from the trade war between Washington and Beijing. The U.S. internet giant intends to eventually move production of most of its American-bound hardware outside of China, including Pixel phones and its popular smart speaker, Google Home, according to the sources.

The Vietnam production lines will be a key part of Google’s drive for growth in the smartphone market. Google aims to ship some 8 million to 10 million smartphones this year, double from a year ago, sources told the Nikkei Asian Review. While Google’s Pixel smartphone brand is still a minor player in the industry – not even ranking in the global top 10, according to tech research firm Counterpoint – it is growing rapidly.

The Vietnam production line is a critical component of Google’s strategy to boost growth in its Pixel smartphone brand. The company is planning to ship some 8 million units this year, roughly 2x the level from last year.

The Vietnam production lines will be a key part of Google’s drive for growth in the smartphone market. Google aims to ship some 8 million to 10 million smartphones this year, double from a year ago, sources told the Nikkei Asian Review. While Google’s Pixel smartphone brand is still a minor player in the industry – not even ranking in the global top 10, according to tech research firm Counterpoint – it is growing rapidly.

The mid-priced Pixel, launched in April, helped Google become the fifth largest mobile brand in the U.S. for the second quarter of 2019, grabbing market share despite a wider industry slump.

Google’s aggressive hardware campaign is expected to heap pressure on second-tier mobile makers such as LG Electronics and Sony, which are struggling as the industry faces its third consecutive year of decline.

Google shipped fewer than 5 million Pixel units last year, accounting for only 0.3% of the global smartphone market. Nearly all of its smartphone sales were recorded in the US.

In 2018, Google shipped some 4.7 million smartphones, which only accounted for 0.3% of global market share, research company IDC said. However it has already shipped 4.1 million units in the first half, according to IDC, thanks to the Pixel 3A, priced at $399.

Nearly 70% of Google’s smartphone sales in 2018 were in the U.S., its biggest market, followed by the U.K. and Japan, according to IDC. For smart speakers, the U.S. accounted for some 64% of shipments.

In the chart below from Counterpoint Research, a firm that tracks the global smartphone market, Google’s Pixel brand is incorporated into the ‘other’ category.

To be sure, even if Google hits all of its targets, it’ll still be only a minor player in the global smartphone market, at best. As for its smart speakers, which compete with Amazon’s Echo, some production will be moved to Thailand, though much of its initial production will remain in China.

Google is the latest company to diversify production outside China to protect itself from the fallout from the burgeoning US-China trade war. While it’s not much of a player in the smartphone market, its Android operating system is a dominant player that runs on Samsung phones, and phones made by other companies. Android is so dominant, that the company’s decision to cut off access to Huawei for the Chinese telecoms giant’s smartphones sold outside China created serious problems for the company.

Both Vietnam and Thailand have benefited from the companies efforts to diversify production outside China, lending some credence to President Trump’s claims that the trade war is hurting China’s critical manufacturing sector. Though, of course, Beijing has retaliated by ramping up tariffs on American agricultural goods, harming American farmers.

But for Google, building up its smartphone business is less about shifting units, and more about demonstrating the power of its Android OS, as one analyst pointed out.

“For Google’s smartphone business, it’s still less about selling hardware but is really to demonstrate how powerful its mobile system and software could be,” said Joey Yen, an analyst at IDC. “The main goal of Google’s hardware business is to help the expansion of its core software, data, and advertisement business and to grow its ecosystem.”

And as Google continues to quietly prepare for its re-entry into the Chinese market (see: Project Dragonfly, which it told the world it had scrapped but appears to still be active) it knows it can’t move all of its Chinese production elsewhere.

“Google are likely to keep some activities inside China. The US company knows that if it is going to be serious about making hardware, it could never give up the massive Chinese market,” one of the sources said. “However, they also understand that, due to rising costs and the macro-environment, they need to have production outside China for the long term in order to support their hardware manufacturing.”

Google is the latest to seek safety by diversifying its production as the trade war intensifies. HP and Dell have relocated their server production away from China to dodge Washington’s punitive tariffs, while also shifting some notebook production to Taiwan and other Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines. Apple also has started to evaluate how it might diversify its supply chain, though it remains heavily reliant on China with more than 90% of its hardware manufactured in the country.

The US tech giant refused to confirm or deny these reports, but Nikkei Asian Review has been at the forefront of reporting about tech companies and their plans to diversify production outside of China. As they’ve explained in the past, the trade war isn’t the only factor driving this trend: Rising wages on the mainland have also inspired companies to look to establish production in cheaper markets like Vietnam.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The pound drops as Boris Johnson asks the Queen to suspend Parliament..the reason less time to debate Brexit

(zerohedge)

Pound Tumbles As PM Boris Johnson Asks Queen To Suspend Parliament

Update: According to the latest updates from lawmakers, the Court of Session in Edinburgh will look tomorrow at a petition signed by 70 MPs aimed at blocking the program.

Kevin Schofield

@PolhomeEditor

Better late than never, Jeremy.

View image on Twitter

Kevin Schofield

@PolhomeEditor

Turns out Leavers back prorogation and Remainers don’t. More when we get it.

Kevin Schofield

@PolhomeEditor

BREAKING: Court of Session in Edinburgh will tomorrow consider a petition backed by more than 70 MPs aimed at blocking Boris Johnson’s prorogation bid.

* * *

The British pound tumbled Wednesday morning on reports British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government would ask Queen Elizabeth II to suspend Parliament when it returns from its summer break next month, the BBC reports.

The pound has reacted negatively as discontinuing the parliamentary session – or “proroguing”, as the official terminology labels it – would leave lawmakers with less time to debate any Brexit-related bills, including a potential revised withdrawal agreement.

However, the pound pared its drop after Johnson insisted on Wednesday that he’s not preparing for a general election, and that there would be “ample time” for MPs to debate any new Brexit-related legislation. GBP/USD was off 0.7% at $1.2203.

Johnson said the Queen’s speech would take place after the suspension ends on Oct. 14.

Dominic Grieve, a critical Tory backbencher, said the decision was “an outrageous act.” Meanwhile, Speaker John Bercow denounced Johnson’s plan as a “constitutional outrage.”

“I have had no contact from the Government, but if the reports that it is seeking to prorogue Parliament are confirmed, the move represents a constitutional outrage,” Bercow said in a statement.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said MPs must find a way to stop the plan next week or “today will go down in history as a dark one indeed for UK democracy.”

Recent polls have shown that Johnson has significant public support to ‘prorogue’ Parliament to stop MPS from thwarting a no-deal Brexit, as we pointed out earlier this month.

Johnson said he would prefer to leave the EU on Oct. 31 with a deal, but that it is “do or die,” that he would be willing to leave without a deal so long as it means leaving on Oct. 31. This has prompted several opposition MPs to come together to try to block a possible ‘no deal’, and on Tuesday a group of lawmakers said they said they would try to use Parliamentary procedure to block a ‘no deal’ exit.

But if Parliament is suspended on Sept. 10, as Johnson is trying to do, lawmakers would only have a few days to get their plans together.

END
ITALY
Believe it or not but bankrupt Italy just saw its 10 yr bond yield drop below 1.00. There is renewed political optimism with the centre Democrats willing to join the 5 star.  In my opinion that will lead to chaos.
(zerohedge)

Italian 10-Year Yield Hits Fresh Record Low On Renewed Political Optimism

Italian bank stocks climbed and BTP yields fell on Wednesday amid optimism that the political turmoil that has roiled the Italian government over the past month might soon be over, while UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank by assets, might be looking to take direct control over its Turkish subsidiary, Yapi Kredi.

The FTSE All Italia Bank Index climbed more than 1.3%, outperforming the broader market, led by UniCredit, which climbed as much as 2%, placing it among the top  STXE 600 performers. Meanwhile, Italy’s 10-year yield fell 12bps to 1.01%, a new record low, while the BTP-bund spread narrowed 10bps to 173bps, the tightest level since May 2018.

According to BloombergUniCredit is in talks about taking direct control of its holding in Turkish lender Yapi Kredi, a deal that would pave the way for a potential sale or reduction of its stake, people with knowledge of the matter said.

 

Meanwhile, on the political front, the center-right Democratic Party leader Nicola Zingaretti signaled support for a potential coalition with Five Star during talks that continued late into the night on Tuesday between Italy’s Democratic Party (Partito Democratico) and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S). The political drama has been ongoing for days, captivating the country and investors since Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned due to a feud with the League’s leader, Matteo Salvini. Conte resigned on Aug. 20.

The negotiations are a critical step toward forming a new government without sending Italians back to the polls for yet another election.

END
Italy
this alliance has no chance of survival and the M5 S are rather weak on ruling.
(zerohedge)

Furious League Urges Supporters To Take To The Streets As Five Star, Dems Form New Ruling Coalition

After more than a week of increasingly fraught negotiations that nearly blossomed into a full-blown political crisis, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) have reportedly struck a deal to form a new coalition government with Giuseppe Conte as prime minister, according to Italian newswire ANSA.

Earlier this month, League leader Matteo Salvini tried to dissolve the government by withdrawing his support for the coalition in an effort to try and call for new elections. However, he was thwarted when his former coalition partner, M5S leader Luigi di Maio, and his party engaged in negotiations with the centrist Democratic Party. On Wednesday night, the two parties finally reached an agreement to form a new coalition, with Conte – who had quit the government last week – returning to reprise his role as prime minister.

The deal represents a formal split between the M5S and Salvini’s the League, the two anti-establishment parties who had governed the country in an increasingly dysfunctional coalition that paired the far-left and far-right parties.

Salvini’s hope was that the country would hold new elections in which he would likely be named prime minister, at the head of a hard-right coalition.

The coalition will now be tasked with the responsibility for leading Italy through what’s expected to be difficult budget negotiations with the EU.

Meanwhile, the Telegraph reports that the League, Salvini’s party, is furious, pointing out that his party wont 34% of the national vote in May’s European parliament elections, and that it was polling as high as 39% as recently as earlier this month. Salvini affirmed that he would stay on as Interior Minister and Deputy PM in the lame duck government – members of his party urged supporters to take to the streets to protest the party. Salvini held back from calling for his people to march in the streets, saying he was “not interest” in “popular insurrections.” “Those happened back in 1848,” he quipped.

“Let’s hope that if a Democratic Party-Five Star government is formed, the people will rise up as soon as possible,” said Alessandra Locatelli, a League minister.

“They’re stealing the government by preventing Italians from going to a vote,” she said.

Salvini was similarly critical.

“A government made up of Five Star and the Democrats will not correspond to the sentiment of the people,” Salvini said. “If you make deals that are against nature, in the end the people will kick you out. Sooner or later, the judgement of the people will be heard.”

Since the new coalition has been formed, Italy will manage to avoid heading to new elections in the fall. Italian President Sergio Mattarella gave the coalition the mandate to former the new government. Conte will meet with Mattarella Thursday morning to be formally sworn in.

end
France/USA
After ridiculing Trump for asking that Putin join the G7, Macron does an about face and wishes to join Putin?
Macron warns the world that “we are nearing the end of Western Hegemony”.  I wonder what prompted that>
(zerohedge)

After Trump Leaves France, Macron Warns World “Is Living The End Of Western Hegemony”

Having skulked off stage following his joint press conference with President Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron took the opportunity to bash Trump and embrace Putin (presumably after getting permission from Angela Merkel).

“We are living the end of Western hegemony,”Macron told diplomats on Tuesday, pointing to the rise of Beijing and Moscow as signs of a shift on the world scene.

“The world order is being shaken like never before…”

“It’s being shaken because of errors made by the West in certain crises, but also by the choices made by the United States in the past few years – and not just by the current administration.”

 

So a shot clearly aimed at Trump but we wonder if Macron realizes he is part of the “West” he describes as making errors?

Macron then doubled down, warning that it would be a “strategic mistake” for Western nations not to change their attitude toward Moscow.

As RT notes, Macron’s rhetoric towards Moscow has somewhat softened in recent months…

“Pushing Russia away from Europe is a profound strategic mistake.”

“We’re either pushing Russia into isolation, which increases tensions, or to ally itself with other major powers like China, which would not be in our interest,” Macron said, calling for the “rethinking” of relations with Moscow.

Otherwise, Europe will be stuck with “frozen conflicts” and will remain “a theater for strategic struggle between the US and Russia,” he stressed.

These “choices” are impacting “the conflicts in the Middle and elsewhere, making it necessary to rethink military and diplomatic strategies,” Macron noted.

Ironically, Macron’s Putin-pandering comments came after US President Trump was bashed by most of western media for daring to suggest inviting Putin to attend the G7 event next year, (which Trump will be hosting).

Which is odd because journalists claimed one key G7 dinner was “ruined” over Trump’s insistence that Russia would be vital to discussions:

During the seaside meal, French president Emmanuel Macron and European Council president Donald Tusk opposed Trump’s demands. A diplomat present told the publication that the evening was tense: “Most of the other leaders insisted on this being a family, a club, a community of liberal democracies and for that reason they said you cannot allow president Putin — who does not represent that — back in.”

Apparently Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte, who formally announced his resignation early this week, was the only G7 leader present to back Trump’s proposal.

More ‘fake news’?

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel, Hezbollah/Iran/Iraq/Lebanon

We have been highlighting all of the following events to you.  This is a powder keg ready to explode

(Michael Snyder)

Fighting Escalates Dramatically As Both Sides Prepare For “The Final War” Between Israel And Iran

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Are we about to see World War 3 erupt in the Middle East?  Over the past several days, Israel has attempted to prevent attacks by Iranian forces and their allies by striking targets in Syria, Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq. 

As you will see below, political leaders in both Lebanon and Iraq are now accusing Israel of a “declaration of war”, and Hezbollah is pledging to strike Israel back extremely hard. Of course if a full-blown war erupts between Israel and one of her neighbors, it is likely to become a multi-front war almost immediately.  But at the core, this is a conflict between Israel and Iran.  The Iranians have repeatedly pledged to wipe the nation of Israel off the face of the planet, and the coming “final war” is going to literally be a matter of life or death for those two nations.  Both sides have been preparing for this “final war” for a very long time, and once it fully erupts the death and destruction that we will witness will be off the charts.

Just within the past few days, the fighting has escalated dramatically as the Israelis have conducted operations in four different territories

Israeli forces openly claimed attacks over the weekend in Syria and the Palestinian-administered Gaza Strip and were blamed for two more operations in Lebanon and Iraq. As reports of what occurred across the region emerged, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at his country’s ongoing efforts abroad, telling a Monday planning meeting that “we will deepen our roots and strike at our enemies.”

The attacks in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq specifically targeted Iranian forces and their allies, and the goal was to prevent imminent attacks against Israel

In Syria, Israeli warplanes killed two members of the Lebanese Hezbollah. Israel says the individuals were supporting an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plot to launch explosive-laden drones into Israel. The Israelis say that the specific Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps unit responsible was the Quds Force, led by Qassem Soleimani. If true, the Quds Force was likely using Hezbollah as a deniable proxy to avoid direct links between the plot and Tehran.

In another operation in Lebanon, Israel targeted another Iranian-allied group, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. In Iraq, senior Iran-aligned figures accused Israel of another air strike.

Missiles are not flying directly back and forth between Israel and Iran yet, but at this point a state of war essentially exists, and many are deeply concerned about what is going to happen next.

In particular, it looks like Hezbollah could launch a large scale attack against Israel at any moment, because their leadership is absolutely furious that the Israelis just hit their headquarters building in Beirut

Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, threatened to attack Israel in retaliation for a drone attack over the weekend on the organization’s headquarters in Beirut. Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are now at their highest point since the 2006 war.

And the Lebanese government itself is extremely angry as well.  In fact, the president of Lebanon has publicly stated that what Israel has just done is essentially the equivalent of “a declaration of war”

Lebanese President Michel Aoun met Monday with the U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis, calling Israel’s moves in Beirut and Qusaya “a declaration of war.”

The statement echoed the words of Iraq’s powerful Fateh Alliance, which called separate strikes that killed a militia commander in the border town of Al-Qaim “a declaration of war on Iraq and its people,” according to the Associated Press.

This is an extremely serious situation.  Israel is literally on the brink of war with Hezbollah, and many feel that such a war is inevitable.

Meanwhile, a very powerful bloc in the Iraqi government has also accused Israel of “a declaration of war”

A powerful bloc in Iraq’s parliament has called for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, following a series of air raids targeting Iran-backed Shia militias in the country that have been blamed on Israel.

The Fatah Coalition said on Monday that it holds the United States fully responsible for the alleged Israeli aggression, “which we consider to be a declaration of war on Iraq and its people.”

We had not seen the Israeli military strike targets in Iraq until just recently, and this latest attack has absolutely enraged the Shia militias.  During the funeral procession for the commander that was killed in the attack, some of the Shia fighters were actually trampling the American flag

The Shia militia group, meanwhile, held a funeral procession in Baghdad for the commander killed on Sunday.

“There is no greater God but God!” the mourners shouted as they marched behind a banner with the words “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” Some trampled on an American flag as they marched.

Thousands of U.S. soldiers died, thousands more were injured, and we spent trillions of dollars in the process of “liberating” Iraq, and this is how they feel about us.

What a colossal waste.

Ultimately, nothing is going to be able to stop the massive war that is coming to the region.  The Iranians and all of their allies have a religiously-fueled hatred for Israel that most people living in the western world will never understand, and they are absolutely obsessed with permanently destroying the nation of Israel as it exists today.  There will never be peace between the two sides, and the coming apocalyptic conflict will literally be a battle for national survival.

This can definitely be described as a time of “wars and rumors of wars”, and the situation on the ground is extremely fluid right now.  The fact that the Israelis have another national election coming up adds another layer of complexity to all of this, and that election may cause events to accelerate even faster than many were anticipating.

Let us pray for peace, because right now tensions are extremely high and things are beginning to spiral out of control.

And when a full-blown war does break out, it is highly likely that the U.S. will get involved, and that will have enormous implications for all of us.

end

Israel/Lebanon:

Israel targeted Iranian guided missile technology in its attack in Lebanon

(zerohedge)

Israeli Drones Targeted ‘Iranian Guided-Missile Technology’ In Beirut: Report

Perhaps entirely to be expected, there are some bizarre developments and claims coming out related to the weekend’s twin drone bombing of Hezbollah offices in south Beirut.

First, a dubious Reuters story cites “two sources close to Hezbollah” to report the Shia paramilitary group is preparing a “calculated strike” against Israel in response to the drone attack. The claimed sources said a reaction “is being arranged in a way which wouldn’t lead to a war that neither Hezbollah nor Israel wants,” and added, “the direction now is for a calculated strike, but how matters develop, that’s another thing.”

However, Hezbollah is notoriously very secretive and has had few, if any, legitimate leaks of its intentions in the entire history of the organization. Hezbollah members and operatives almost never even talk to journalists outside of the group’s official media wing, the recent claims of some western journalists to have “access” notwithstanding. And then there’s the extreme unlikelihood that the group would announce exactly a strategy of a “calculated” reprisal yet that doesn’t lead to war.

 

A new UK Times report alleges Israeli drone strike targeted Hezbollah missile components. 

Another interesting development involves an explosive UK Times report alleging the Israelis were looking to destroy a vital Hezbollah missile component in the operation. According to the Tuesday report:

A suspected Israeli drone attack on a Hezbollah site in southern Beirut targeted crates believed to contain machinery to mix high-grade propellant for precision guided missilesThe Times has learnt.

The report of course relies on unnamed “Western intelligence sources” to say the targeted facility actually stored a high-end “industrial planetary mixer” — considered an essential component in high-grade precision missiles’ propellant.

Some analysts online have pointed to photographs of one of the drone blasts which hit near a Hezbollah media building that appear to show crates catching fire, though it’s also highly dubious that such vital and secretive technology would be stored so brazenly out in the open in the center of a neighborhood.

maytham@maytham956

Alleged UAV caught on cam at Media Center in .
The drone downed over southern Lebanon on August 25 contained a carefully made 5,5kg C4 explosives warhead.

View image on Twitter

There are reports suggesting the valuable crates could have been in the process of transport to a nearby airport, however.

Richard Spencer@RichardJSpencer

You can open-access photographs on Twitter clearly showing what was struck: https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1165411028072566789?s=20 

Aurora Intel@AuroraIntel
Replying to @AuroraIntel

Beirut incident is, weird, reports from locals of a truck tyre exploding, and then a fireworks truck tyre exploding due to a fire, but local images show a non-truck like object on fire. 🙃🤷🏼‍♂️ either way it seems accidental?

View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter

1

Israel has a history of justifying any and all of its missile strikes whether in Lebanon or Syria — even when the target is clearly a Syrian government building (as has been the case many times over the past few years) — by saying it was halting Iranian or Hezbollah rockets.

With potential war on the horizon, and as Israel makes threats hearkening back to the lead-up of the 2006 war to retaliate for any Hezbollah counter-attack on “the whole Lebanese state,” every fresh claim should first be scrutinized as war propaganda meant to signal threats to “the enemy”.

end

Israel/Saudi Arabia/Iran/USA

The Israeli and the Saudis are lobbying Trump not to engage in a deal with Iran as they are wilier and will outsmart Trump in his “art of the deal”.

(zerohedge)

Israelis & Saudis Trying To Preempt Trump Bid For Meeting With Rouhani

President Trump has made it less and less a secret that he is pushing for new talks with Iran to “negotiate a better deal” after previously pulling out of the JCPOA. He and French President Emmanuel Macron at the close of the G7 on Monday actually spoke as if a potential meeting with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani would be “soon” in the works.

Though The Washington Post hours after those statements cited a source saying Rouhani was “open” to such renewed talks, Tehran hours later poured cold water over the prospect by saying its ballistic missile program is “non-negotiable” and that face-to-face talks are conditioned on the White House biding by its prior commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal; however, Iranian officials were said to have reacted positively to Macron’s idea of a $15BN credit line should Iran refrain from breaching uranium enrichment caps under the prior terms of the JCPOA.

Now with media speculation rampant that Rouhani and Trump might sit down at the same table, both Israel and Saudi Arabia are reportedly stepping up efforts to preempt such a dialogue.

 

Trump said at the close of the G7 summit in France that he doesn’t want regime change and is “open” to meeting with Iran’s Rouhani, via LA Times.

Israeli press and officials are expressing extreme concern, per a recent Haaretz article:

The fears in Israel, which for now are only being expressed in completely off-the-record conversations, are that Trump, eager to make his mark on world affairs and prove he can achieve a better deal than his predecessor, will find himself in a room with negotiators much wilier and more knowledgeable on the issues than he is. Convinced that he is the grand master of the art of the deal, Trump could swiftly come to an agreement with the Iranians that may sound preferable to him, but in reality will be much worse.

Israel’s intelligence and defense community are said to be strongly lobbying against such a renewed Trump engagement with Tehran after the president told reporters there’s “a really good chance” the meeting would happen.

It’s not the first time the White House has hesitantly invited Iran to the table following a summer of escalating “tanker wars” and boiling point tensions in the Persian Gulf, and amid a US military build-up in the region.

It was recently revealed that last month Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif had rebuffed a secret invitation to meet with President Trump in the oval office, which involved the mediation of Rand Paul. Just days following this, the US Treasury announced unprecedented sanctions against the Iranian top diplomat.

ABC News Politics

@ABCPolitics

NEW: Pres. Trump says he would meet with Iranian Pres. Rouhani “if the circumstances were correct.”

“But in the meantime, they have to be good players.” https://abcn.ws/2zmB4uL

Embedded video

Currently, the Saudis are also jumping into the fray increasingly as Israel’s unlikely junior lobbying partner on all things “countering Iran”.

It’s been no secret that Riyadh and Tel Aviv, despite never having official diplomatic relations, have developed an intelligence sharing relationship as a result of the common cause to oust Assad in the years-long Syrian proxy war.

This week Riyadh dispatched Deputy Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman – the younger brother of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – to Washington to specifically express “common concerns” over Iran. Khalid is scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Wednesday afternoon where he’s expected to argue against any US engagement with Rouhani.

 

Deputy Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman and younger brother of MbS, via Saudi embassy in the US.

Given that by all appearances the Saudis and Israelis are doing everything in their power to stymie direct US-Iran talks, the fact that Israel just conducted airstrikes on multiple Arab countries within 24 hours over the weekend in a dramatic escalation is deeply significant, given the curious timing for such brazen aggression.

Could it have been a desperate Netanyahu bid to ensure tensions with Iran and its proxies remain as high and “on the brink” as possible?

If the attacks – one of which was on a Hezbollah site in Beirut for the first time since 2006 – was toward telegraphing and provoking an Iranian responseIsrael can then present the case to Washington that Iran is “on the offensive” and therefore cannot be engaged diplomatically.

end

GAZA

Originally blamed on Israel is looks like we have factions that are worse than Hamas as they had two suicide bombers attack police stations. It may have the start of a low grade civil war as Hamas roots out these extremists

(zerohedge)

Gaza ‘State Of Emergency’ As Blasts Blamed On Israel Were Actually ISIS Suicide Bombers

A strange series of blasts at Gaza police checkpoints that rocked Gaza City Tuesday evening has resulted in a rare admission by the Hamas-run Palestinian territory’s health ministry that a prior statement blaming Israel for the new attacks was inaccurate. It now says Islamic State cells active in the strip are responsible.

On Wednesday morning Hamas declared a ‘state of emergency’ amid a crackdown on both Islamic State supporters and renegade Salafist organizations after at least three Gazan police officers were reported killed in twin suicide explosions on separate checkpoints after motorcycles detonated at the sites. A handful of others were wounded in the attacks from the rival Islamist outlawed group.

 

ISIS in Sinai previously threatened to overthrow “apostate” Hamas leaders in Gaza. Image via AMN news.

Currently “mass arrests” are underway according to local reports, yet Hamas officials are calling for calm while describing the attacks as an isolated incident.

 

An Interior Ministry spokesman described that, “Mobilization of all police and security forces has been declared to follow-up on security developments in the aftermath of the two explosions.”

This comes at a moment of continued heightened tensions between Hamas and Israel after last May hundreds of rockets were launchedfrom Gaza into Israel, with corresponding IDF retaliatory strikes, and as deadly incidents involving Palestinian clashes with Israeli security forces along the border increased.

Starting in 2018 the Islamic State’s so-called “Sinai branch” declared war on Hamas, describing the Palestinian militant organization as “apostates”.

And now with a state of emergency declared, we could be witnessing the start of a low-grade civil war in Gaza as Hamas roots out more rival extremist elements.

end

 

Turkey

Turkish had considerable numbers of Jewish folk in the country (mostly in Istanbul) and  for many years, the secular government of Turkey and the Jews had a very strong symbiotic relationship.  Now the Jews are leaving in droves

(Gatestone)

Turkey: “Death To Jews” Indoctrination At Summer Camp

Authored by Uzay Bulut via The Gatestone Institute,

Turkey’s Jewish community is still reeling from the content of a video that went viral at the end of July. The video shows what appears to be a summer camp at which young children, with a group of burqa-clad women behind them, are being led in an anti-Semitic cheer in Turkish by a young girl or woman counselor.

Abdulsettar@Abdulsettar76

Yahudiye ölüm Filistin kurtulacak Ayasofya Açılacak

Embedded video

In the 39-second clipwhen the girl says, “The Jews,” the women and children reply, “Death!”

When she says, “Palestine,” they reply, “It will be saved.”

When she calls out, “Hagia Sophia” — referring to the Byzantine cathedral-museum in Istanbul that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced will be turned into a mosque — they chant, “It will be opened.”

A few days after the footage began to circulate, Garo Paylan, a Member of Parliament from the opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party, tweeted his outrage. He announced his intention to file a criminal complaint against the camp counselor and the organization behind her. Two days after posting the tweet, Paylan submitted the following parliamentary questions to Family, Labor and Social Services Minister Zehra Zümrüt Selçuk, Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu and Justice Minister Abdülhamit Gül:

  • Where and under whose care were the children in the film?
  • Were their parents or other family members present during the event?
  • Did the children who were instructed to shout “Death to the Jews” come together at that event as part of an organization?
  • Did the event take place with the knowledge of your ministry?
  • Will you launch an investigation into the organizers and the families of those children who abuse and encourage them to commit hate crimes?
  • Will you launch administrative investigations into the authorities that neglected to expose the event?
  • Will you put these children under the protection of your ministry?
  • What kind of precautions will your ministry take so that our children are not exposed to such abuses again?

Paylan also asked the justice minister whether “those engaging in hate speech and hate crimes are punished effectively, or whether there is a climate of impunity concerning such crimes.”

The ministers have yet to issue a response.

Pictured: The Neve Shalom Synagogue in Istanbul, Turkey. (Image source: Tatiana Matlina/Wikimedia Commons)

Meanwhile, Mois Gabay, a Jewish columnist based in Istanbul, told Gatestone that the anti-Semitism revealed in the video is the kind of incident that makes Turkey’s already dwindling Jewish community extremely worried about the future. Gabay, in his July 31 column in Turkey’s Jewish weekly, Şalom, wrote:

“It is possible to give many more examples [of anti-Semitism in Turkey]… It appears that as long as penalties are not imposed… and the Holocaust and anti-Semitism are not included in school curricula, some people will continue playing ostrich, no matter how much we write about these issues. I do hope that the hatred and exclusion [of Jews] that is growing by the day, with new emerging groups, will come to an end here one day.”

Şalom‘s editor-in-chief, İvo Molinas, in an interview with the Bianet News Agency on August 5, also bemoaned the anti-Semitic incitement exposed in the video:

“There is a very intense anti-Semitism in the visual media and printed press, as well as on social media, in Turkey. But this video is the most major and most severe form of anti-Semitism. Very young children are indoctrinated in Jew-hatred and human-hatred without even knowing who Jews are. These children will grow up to be potential Jew-haters and this is the biggest danger. Penalties should be imposed for racism and hate crimes. Lawsuits should absolutely be filed against those who engage in racism and hate crimes and who direct children to these things. This is the short-term solution; but the long-term solution is education. We live in a country where an ethnic group is placed in the brains of very little children as enemies. And the saddest thing is that we are not able to do anything about it. As a society, we only complain, but cannot do anything else. It is so sad that neither political nor judicial attempts are being made to stop these things.”

end
TURKEY
A picture is certainly worth of a 1000 words:  Erdogan believes he has no problem turning to Russia as he purchased his S 400 defense missile system.  The problem is that Turkey is in NATO.  Will the country be booted out?  Will Turkey release the million or so migrants housed in Turkey?
(zerohedge)

A Picture Worth A Thousand Words, Or At Least 100 F-35 Jets

Showing just how unconcerned he apparently is over threatened US sanctions and the recent cancellation of Turkey’s participation in the US F-35 program, Turkish President Erdogan is in Moscow on a “shopping trip” of sorts at a moment Russia is delivering the second round of S-400 components to Ankara.

 

Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet is inspected by Erdogan during the MAKS-2019 International Aviation and Space Show in Zhukovsky, outside Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2019. Image source: AP

A revealing photo op captured President Putin showing Erdogan the cockpit of a Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter jet as Turkey is rumored to be eyeing the Russian advanced fighter as an “alternative” to the F-35 should the blocked transfer of the Lockheed-made fighters become permanent.

Erdogan was in attendance at the MAKS-2019 show in Zhukovsky near Moscow at Putin’s invitation to view the next generation fighter in action, the export version of which made its debut Tuesday in the form of the Su-57E.

 

Ali Özkök@Ozkok_A

asks whether the new Russian fighter jet Su-57 is for sale. Putin answers: “Yes, you can buy”. Both laugh.

Embedded video

United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) executives  which designed and produced the Russian stealth jet — had previously offered to start talks with Turkey in the wake of Washington’s objections to its S-400 purchase and as the fate of the F-35 looks ever uncertain.

Turkey’s foreign ministry had previously called the overture “premature” but said it would weigh all options.

 

Image source: AP

Erdogan’s comments at the airshow were limited to pledging “deepening defense ties” with Moscow and stopped short of commenting on the SU-57 directly.

The Turkish president’s visit to Russia is said to be brief, and he was Putin’s “guest of honor” at the airshow. Certainly the picture alone of the two leaders at the jet’s cockpit is worth a thousand words, no doubt a strong signal to Washington.

END

6.Global Issues

Michael Every discusses the strange events of the past few days including the Bill Dudley comments that the Fed should raise interest rates and by doing that he is thwarting Trump is his attack against China.

Quite a piece

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

 

“That A Member Of The Elite Like Bill Dudley Could Open This Can Of Worms Is Quite Staggering”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Stranger Things 3 and 4

Want to see something some strange things? Look at the yield curve.This morning in Asia US 30-year Treasuries are at 1.90%, the lowest ever seen; US 10s are 1.47%; US 2s at 1.51% (so, yes, 2s-10s is inverted again); and US 3-month yields are at 1.94%, meaning that the 3M-10Y spread is a staggering -47bp. This is neither healthy nor normal. Indeed, one could argue we are one bad data point away from the US 10-year testing the low of 1.36% last seen in 2016.

30-year Bunds are at -0.19%; 10s are at -0.70%; and 2s are -0.90%. 30-years in Italy are at 2.20%, down 18bp on the previous close; 10s at 1.13%, also down 18bp; and 2s at -0.13%, down 13bp – and that’s as the latest Bloomberg headlines are that “Italian Coalition Talks Stumble, Raising Risk of Early Elections. Nonetheless, there is a meeting this morning at 08:30 Rome time between the 5-Star anti-establishment movement and the PD deeply-establishment movement, so perhaps that yield movement is justified(?) As noted before, if this is the case then the League’s Salvini can watch from opposition as 5-Star sheds its radical credentials; and with its pro-growth policies watered down by the technocratic PD, he will be well placed to swoop to power when the Italian economy hits what the German IFO survey, and the yield curve, are flagging as serious problems ahead.

In short, current yields scream the failure of the technocratic elite, particularly central banks. Where is the inflation we were promised? Where are the wages healthily driving that inflation on the demand-pull side? That failure is taking us into the surreal world of ‘Stranger Things’, where the US president publicly eviscerates the Federal Reserve at every turn, even calling it an “enemy”.

However, throughout central banks’ persistent failure to achieve their goals at least they could claim they were still scientific and apolitical and ‘not strange’. No longer.

In ‘Stranger Things 2’ last Friday the BOE’s Carney argued for an end to the USD as global reserve currency in favor of something like Facebook’s Libra. That may be technocratic, but it is as (real) political as you can get. Of course, Carney has already been accused of the same thing by Brexiteers. (NB the USD is still going up, not down regardless, even as gold also gains.)

And in ‘Stranger Things 3’ yesterday former Fed member Dudley made a public missive via the Bloomberg opinion page titled “The Fed Shouldn’t Enable Donald Trump”. This argues that ”…trade war with China keeps undermining the confidence of businesses and consumers, worsening the economic outlook. This manufactured disaster-in-the-making presents the Federal Reserve with a dilemma: Should it mitigate the damage by providing offsetting stimulus, or refuse to play along? If the ultimate goal is a healthy economy, the Fed should seriously consider the latter approach.

Such a harder line could benefit the Fed and the economy in three ways. First, it would discourage further escalation of the trade war, by increasing the costs to the Trump administration. Second, it would reassert the Fed’s independence by distancing it from the administration’s policies. Third, it would conserve much-needed ammunition, allowing the Fed to avoid further interest-rate cuts at a time when rates are already very low by historical standards…

I understand and support Fed officials’ desire to remain apolitical. But Trump’s ongoing attacks on Powell and on the institution have made that untenable. Central bank officials face a choice: enable the Trump administration to continue down a disastrous path of trade war escalation, or send a clear signal that if the administration does so, the president, not the Fed, will bear the risks — including the risk of losing the next election.

The implications here are simply staggering. We have a former Fed official lobbying sitting Fed officials to deliberately damage the economy and move away from their stated mandate in order to either force a policy change from an elected president, or to force that president out of office!

I don’t know what ‘Stranger Things 4’ is going to look like, but it will probably have a new cast, meaning a central bank that does more of what the White House wants. Why? Because the alternative is now flagged as the risk of an unelected body deciding not just rates, but trade, economic, and geopolitical/foreign policy over the head of the executive. Surely, real politk says that won’t stand. How can Trump trust any monthly decision of the Fed from now on when they don’t do what he wants on rates? (i.e., cut fast?) Any moderation in the easing cycle will be seen as conspiracy, not complacency. At the very, very least, not cutting into a trade war ensures: (1) a vastly stronger USD, and; (2) a vastly inverted yield curve.

That a former member of the technocratic elite like Dudley could open this can of worms is quite staggering. However, in some respects it shouldn’t be. Susan Strange, the founder of the much-overlooked discipline of International Political Economy, argued that one should never just assume that rules or institutions are neutral and apoliticalanything manmade struggles to be. As an example, since the mid-2000s I have argued that central banks smile at equity inflation, and at house-price inflation, but scream at the risk of wage inflation. Many readers will take this as sensible and “just the way things are”. OK…but it is also a paradigm designed to make the rich richer and working Joes relatively poorer: logically, how can it not be?

Equally, how can central bankers not see this? The answer to that isn’t strange, perhaps: Susan Strange herself might well have quoted Upton Sinclair: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it”; and that lack of understanding can be so hard-wired that it becomes genuine, like a divine revelation, rather than just cynical. Recall the ECB media department recently claimed that its QE policy had reduced inequality rather than increased it, with a graphic suggesting the rich were less well-off and the poor better off than before!

Fortunately, even in their current distorted form, we still have markets that allow some independent judgement on what is and isn’t revealed truth. And the truth negative yields reveal is an economic and central banking paradigm that no longer works, and which must change somehow. ‘Dudley-do-right’ may just have accelerated that process.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Argentina

Argentinian bonds could be worth only 30 cents on the dollar after a default.  This will be devastating to the west

(zerohedge)

Argentine Bonds Could Be Worth Only 30 Cents On The Dollar After A Default

It was just days ago that we reported on PIMCO’s investment in Argentine bonds taking a major haircut due to the country’s collapsing currency. Now, it looks at though more pain could be on the way for investors who were savvy enough to participate in Argentina’s “growth  opportunity” by buying the country’s bonds during the turmoil the country has faced over the last 2 decades.

It hasn’t even been two years since Argentina sold a $2.75 billion, 100 year bond and already another debt restructuring is a possibility, according to Bloomberg. After President Macri lost the primary election, analysts from firms like Citigroup and Bank of America are saying that investors may only recoup less than 40 cents on the dollar on these bonds if Argentina has to restructure its debt for the third time in two decades.

Bonds seem to be already anticipating this turmoil, trading close to those levels last week. The notes traded at 45 cents on concerns that Alberto Fernandez and his running mate, former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, would roll back Macri‘s market friendly agenda. Yields on the shortest term dollar bonds outstanding eclipsed 50% and assets have had a mild rebound since. However, the implied probability of a default over the next five years remains at 83%.

 

Source: BBG

Claudio Irigoyen, head of Latin America fixed-income and foreign-exchange strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York said: “The probability of a restructuring is high next year given large financial needs, limited market access and fiscal challenges amid a recession. The fiscal and financial situation is vulnerable and the markets show low credibility so far.”

In that situation, a recovery would likely be below 40 cents on the dollar. Citigroup has an even more pessimistic outlook, stating that bondholders will likely get something in the low 30 cent range if the country reneges on its debts. The bonds were trading near 50 cents on Wednesday morning.

Citigroup emerging-markets strategists including New York-based Donato Guarino said:

“In external debt, we think that more certainty on the plans of the next administration is needed, as the market is not yet pricing a worst-case recovery value. It may only come closer to the election.”

Fernandez has said in interviews with several newspapers that “no one knows better than us the damage caused by the default”. Though he didn’t necessarily say he would push for a restructuring, he pointed out securities that were tied to economic growth that the country offered in 2005 in 2010, as a way for investors to “partner in Argentina’s growth”.

On Monday, economic adviser Guillermo Nielsen said Fernandez has no plans to restructure the country’s debt.

 

Food prices have also skyrocketed since the peso has collapsed

Some investors are speculating that Kirchner, Macri’s predecessor who let Argentina through a period of radical financial policies, could be the person to set policy in a new administration.

And the likelihood that Argentina needs to restructure its debt is higher now regardless of the results of the election. A scenario which Kirchner calls the shots could be most damaging to bond investors, followed by an outcome where she and Fernandez butt heads, which could result in “erratic policy”.

Raphael Marechal, an emerging-markets money manager at Nikko Asset Management in London, said: “Argentina notes already mostly price in a default, considering a historical recovery rate of about 40% in emerging markets plus coupon payments until the event potentially happens.”

After Argentina defaulted on $95 billion worth of bonds in 2001, a large majority of holders accepted an exchange for new debt that was worth about 30 cents on the dollar. The IMF also will be a key player to consider in any default. The fund granted a $56 billion bailout to Argentina last year and will soon decide whether to add another $5 billion of additional funds next month.

Any immediate debt restructuring under the guidance of the IMF would allow Fernandez “to blame Mr. Macri for the unsustainable debt position he inherited,” Edward Glossop, a Latin America economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said. He continued: “This would result in smoother debt-restructuring talks and higher recovery values on bonds.”

Carolina Gialdi, a senior fixed-income strategist at BTG Pactual Argentina in Buenos Aires concluded: “If the next administration doesn’t manage to have market confidence, funding will be limited and will require a haircut to face obligations.”

end

Two important points here:

1. Emerging markets are having troubles because of a lack of dollars.

2  The scarcity of dollars is a problem for the current account as they owe in dollars and just cannot find any.  (idential to the Indonesian crisis of 1997)

(zerohedge)

Emerging Market FX Plunges To Record Low As Pesos Plummet

Emerging market investors appear to be the most sensitive canaries in the global investing coalmine as they abandon ‘high growth’ opportunities in favor of safe-havens, sending broad-based emerging market currencies to record lows…

JPMorgan’s Emerging Market FX index just hit a new record low…

Source: Bloomberg

The various “pesos” are leading the most recent collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

Today sees new record lows for the Colombian Peso…

Source: Bloomberg

And fears that Argentine net foreign currency reserves are in a more dire situation than many people assume from looking at the gross figure, sent the peso plummeting back towards record lows…

“We think that the gross FX reserve figure overstates the BCRA’s ability to prop up the peso,” economist Edward Glossop writes in a note.

Capital Economics estimates the BCRA’s net FX reserves have fallen from $30 billion in mid-April to just $19 billion now

Source: Bloomberg

Where investors have stayed local, they have dramatically shifted to investment grade EM debt and away from high yield EM debt:

Source: Bloomberg

“Credit quality will matter, and I strongly prefer investment grade over high yield in emerging-market debt,” said Sergey Dergachev, senior portfolio manager at Union Investment in Frankfurt, who favors Indonesia, India, Egypt and Croatia. “I definitely see more volatility to come.”

But it seems the flood of capital is flowing from EM FX into dollars and from there into US Treasuries, as the long-end of the curve hits new record low yields.

In developing nations, “the balance of risks are skewed to the downside in the near-term,” said Patrick Wacker, a fund manager for emerging-market fixed income at UOB Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore.

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1086 DOWN .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//HONG KONG CHAOS/TARIFF WARS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.72 DOWN 0.021 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2219   DOWN   0.0061  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3308 UP .0022 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1086 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.29% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 48.59 POINTS OR 0.19%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,54%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 48.59 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 54% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 23.34  POINTS OR 0.11%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1544.80

silver:$18.41-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.46% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.92 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.12 UP 12 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.09% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.28%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.06%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,04 DOWN 9 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 98 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.72% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.76% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1080  DOWN     .0009 or 9 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.87 up .122 OR YEN DOWN 12  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2240 DOWN .0040 POUND DOWN 40  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 15 basis points to 1.3300

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1652    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1688  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8036 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.28%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.46 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.93 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.15 UP 15  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 25.13  0.35%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 29.00 POINTS OR .25%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 18.29 POINTS 0.34%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 24.00 POINTS or 0.28%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 0.59 POINTS OR 0.00%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.14 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 60.59 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    66.58  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.12 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 12 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.72 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.92//

 

 

BRENT :  60..44

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.47  flat and did not buy the Dow advance…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.94 down 1 basis point and did not buy the Dow advance..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1076 ( DOWN 14   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.18 UP .432 (YEN DOWN 43 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.25 UP 25 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2212 DOWN 68  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8127

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.78   DOWN 0.031 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 31 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3306 DOWN 20 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1652  (ONSHORE)/DEADLY

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1674 (OFFSHORE/DEADLY)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.72%

 

The Dow closed UP 258.20 POINTS OR 1.00%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 29.94 POINTS OR 0.38%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.39 CLOSED DOWN .92

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.114%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks & Bonds Pop, Cryptos Drop, As Silver Surges Past Gold Year-To-Date

USTR confirmed that additional tariffs will be put on China next week… and The Dow roars 400 points off the lows as bond yields hit record lows…

 

Chinese stocks went nowhere overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks dipped and ripped as Italy headlines spurred risk-on after US opened…

Source: Bloomberg

Italian markets ripped higher (yields and spreads lower) as signs of political agreements emerged (ITA 10Y yields tumbled to a new record low below 1.00%)…

Source: Bloomberg

US equities opened weak, then exploded higher into the European close, after which they went sideways…

 

All thanks to another VIX monkeyhammering…

 

Big surge in cyclicals relative to growth today…

Source: Bloomberg

The momentum of small caps versus blue chips is at levels not seen since the financial crisis. The ratio between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 has fallen to the lowest since March 2009, with RTY declining almost twice as much as SPX this month.

Source: Bloomberg

Dow remains tightly rangebound between the 100- and 200-day moving averages…

 

Major short-squeeze today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks outperformed today, despite a flattening curve…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, from the US open, it appeared pension rebalancing was impacting markets with stocks suddenly bid and bonds offered, but that stopped ahead of the EU close and bond yields and stock prices began to diverge…

Source: Bloomberg

Pension rebalancing and last-second buybacks ahead of blackouts likely prompted the decoupling of stocks from bond yields.

 

Treasury yields slipped lower once again today…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y (and 30Y) yields closed at record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve remains inverted (2s10s steepened very modestly but below 0 as 3m10Y flattened to new cycle lows once again…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar index rallied once again, perfectly erasing the plunge from Trump’s tariff tantrum last Friday…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable crashed early on as BoJo pushed to suspend parliament but rebounded as various officials jawboned the tensions down…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Cryptos were a bloodbath today…

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing all cryptos red for the month (litecoin down a stunning 33% in August)…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bitcoin blew back below $10,000…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Gold was flat today as silver and crude rallied (silver leads the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

WTI spiked above $56.50 in early trading but despite a huge crude draw, oil prices slipped back intraday…

 

Gold was slammed once again from significant resistance…

Quite a different picture for silver over the same period…

 

Silver’s recent surge has erased all gold’s relative outperformance for 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver in Yuan hit a new 3 year high…

Source: Bloomberg

 

And finally, the 30-year Treasury bond is yielding less than what the S&P 500 pays in dividends (on a trailing 12-month basis), something we’ve only seen in about three months over the past four decades.

Source: Bloomberg

It appears that Bitcoin has decoupled from the safe-haven from policymaker pandemonium trade…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite stocks rebounding and being only 4% from record highs, traders are piling into bets that The Fed will cut rates to negative before this is over…

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/EARLY MORNING/USA

Jawboning so far is not helping as stocks and bond yields drop

(zerohedge)

Stocks & Bond Yields Extend Drop Despite Trump China-Deal Jawboning

As the US yield curve inverted further and long-end rates hit fresh record lows, US equity futures accelerated lower, prompting a quick tweet from the president to try and save the market once again… for now it’s not working.

As stocks tumbled into the red, Trump tweeted how well things are going with China…

“So interesting to read and see all of the free and interesting advice I am getting on China, from people who have tried to handle it before and failed miserably – In fact, they got taken to the cleaners. We are doing very well with China. This has never happened to them before!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

So interesting to read and see all of the free and interesting advice I am getting on China, from people who have tried to handle it before and failed miserably – In fact, they got taken to the cleaners. We are doing very well with China. This has never happened to them before!

But the market is no longer buying it…

 

And yields continue to slide…

 

Source: Bloomberg

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/MID MORNING

STOCKS RISE FOR NO APPARENT REASON

(ZEROHEDGE)

Dow Panic-Bid Into Green After US Open

The Dow has suddenly spiked 200 points off opening lows, back into the green for the day.. for no good reason…

UST confirmed it will release on Friday the list of products to be tariff’d starting next week at 15% – no new news whatsoever, and no ‘good’ news for sure. But the algos loved it…

The word ‘fragile‘ comes to mind as this spike was unable to even prompt a TICK (upside/downside vol) over +500.

Bonds and the dollar entirely ignored the move.

END

ii)Market data/USA

Another good sign that the uSA economy is faltering

(zerohedge)

Mortgage Applications Plunge, Purchases Hit 6-Month Lows

Despite mortgage rate plunging to near two-year lows, the mini refi-boom has stalled and purchase applications continue to plunge…

Overall mortgage applications fell 6.2% from last week with both refi (-7.6%) and purchase (-4.0%) sliding. Purchase apps are back at their lowest since February

Source: Bloomberg

And while rates have tumbled it has sparked no incremental demand for new purchases…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the weakest purchase mortgage year since 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

Mortgage bankers appear to be blaming Trump for the lack of buying…

“U.S. Treasury yields were volatile over the course of the week, as the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China continued to generate uncertainty among investors. Rates increased for the first time since the week of July 12, but were still 80 basis points lower than the beginning of the year,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting.

“With rates edging higher, refinances and purchase applications fell, at 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were still up around 2 percent year-over-year last week, but the drop in rates this summer have not yet led to a significant boost in activityUncertainty over the near-term economic outlook and low supply continue to be the predominant headwinds for prospective homebuyers.”

So, why exactly is The Fed being urged to cut rates?

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

New Jersey

We have been pointing out to you that New Jersey is 2nd to Illinois as faras basket cases go. Now this New Jersey Senate President states that his state is worse than Illinois which I find hard to believe

(zerohedge)

“We Are Going Up In Flames”: New Jersey In “Worse Shape Than Any Other State” Senate President Admits

For years, it was conventional wisdom that the most financially-challenged state in the US – whether it comes to overall debt burden, outlays, tax collections, underfunded pension and retirement obligations, or simply credit rating – was Illinois, followed closely by New Jersey in second place.

However, according to New Jersey’s Senate president, conventional wisdom is wrong. In an interview with Bloomberg, Senator Stephen Sweeney, a Democrat, said that that credit-rating companies may be underestimating the severity of the state’s financial strains by giving it the second-lowest grade after Illinois.

“We are in worse shape than Illinois,” Sweeney said. “We are not investing in education, we are not investing in the areas that we want because all the money is going to pensions and health care.”

As Bloomberg notes, these comments underscore the persistent fiscal pressure on New Jersey, a high-tax state contending with massive debts to employee pension funds after years of failing to set aside enough to cover the $212 billion of benefits that have been promised. As extensively discussed in the past, New Jersey’s retirement system had about $82 billion of assets in 2018, only 38% of what it needs to cover checks that are owed in the decades ahead. That’s lower than any other state system in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The state’s obligation for retirees’ health care benefits adds another $90.5 billion. The state’s solution? Raise expected pension fund returns from 7.0% to 7.5%!

Wall Street and rating companies have expressed concern that funding for state services is being consumed by the pensions, which investors have said aren’t even at the tread water level. That’s the amount that the state needs to put in each year to keep up the liabilities from growing. But with the state’s taxes already among the highest in the U.S., it’s difficult to raise new revenue.

Adding insult to injury, the state is banned from borrowing to balance its budget, and it can only issue general obligation bonds through voter approval.

The outspoken Sweeney, New Jersey’s highest-ranking state lawmaker and career ironworker, has clashed with Governor Phil Murphy, his fellow Democrat, on several issues, successfully blocking the governor’s pitches for higher income-tax rates on millionaires, a smart move in light of several prominent departures by some of the state’s richest citizens such as David Tepper, who moved to less tax burdensome pastures in recent years.

Ironically, it is Sweeney who also pushed for less costly employee benefits, a hard sell with unionized employees who were key to Murphy’s election. In 2017, Sweeney resisted a push to unseat him by the New Jersey Education Association in what campaign-finance officials aptly enough, called the most expensive legislative race in state history. In May, after Sweeney proposed a series of cost-cutting health and pension bills, the teachers union vowed to fight “a terrible trend” and work with the governor.

As a result of this ongoing financial and political chaos, and absent some form of state bailout, the worst case scenario awaits the millions of state retirees. Karel Citroen, head of municipal-bond research at Conning, said he could foresee a situation in Illinois or New Jersey where “its pension fund essentially has no assets to cover its liabilities and benefits are paid from its annual budget.”

“I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the states ended up in a situation like Puerto Rico in terms of their pensions,” he said, referring to the bankrupt island’s depleted retirement system. “The way it has been going over the last ten years clearly hasn’t worked. States have pushed out their amortization but haven’t really addressed the benefits or made real step ups in their contributions.”

As shown in the top chart, New Jersey remains rated A3 by Moody’s, as well as A- by S&P A by Fitch. Those are the second-lowest ratings for a U.S. state after Illinois, which is one level above junk by Moody’s and S&P.

“Why am I yelling fire in a crowded theater and everyone else is saying that we’re fine,” Sweeney said. “We’re not. And it’s going to go up in flames. I would rather not go down in memory as the guy that told everyone the pension system was going to collapse and be found that I was correct.”

Well, maybe Sweeney won’t be “that” guy, but someone else will unfortunately have to deliver the very bad news to what will soon be a lot of furious retirees who learn that their retirement eggs has been suddenly cut in half… or worse.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Epstein’s own lawyers state that he was not despondent the night before he died. They claim he died by an “assault”

(zerohedge)

 

Epstein’s Own Lawyers Tell Court He Likely Died By “Assault” As Federal Case Dropped

Epstein’s own defense team doesn’t buy the suicide narrative, apparently, as one of his lawyers on Tuesday voiced deep skepticism that he hanged himself while addressing a final hearing in a Manhattan US District Court on Tuesday, which was held to formally dismiss the charges as is typical when the accused is deceased, but also to still allow testimony of some of the victims.

Defense lawyer Reid Weingarten told Judge Richard Berman during the hearing that Epstein’s injuries are “far more consistent with assault”than suicide, especially given the broken bones in his neck discovered during the autopsy after he was found dead in his jail cell on Aug. 10. This after it was previously revealed that Epstein’s defense attorneys had successfully lobbied for him to be taken off suicide watch on July 29, about a week before he was found dead in his cell, according to ABC News.

 

Reid Weingarten. Image source: Getty/CNBC

“Weingarten cited the defense’s own medical sources. Broken bones were found in Epstein’s neck during an autopsy after he died Aug. 10,” reports CNBC. “Such fractures are somewhat more common in cases of strangulation than in hanging.”

Weingarten explained to the judge that Epstein didn’t at all appear suicidal during discussions and interactions the evening before his apparent early morning hours death. “We did not see a despairing, despondent, suicidal person,” the lawyer said.

Tuesday’s proceedings were held to allow about 20 women, many choosing to remain anonymous during testimony, to tell the court and the world what happened to them at the hands of the wealthy sex predator and human trafficker.

Judge Berman wrote of the hearing, “The Court believes that where, as here, a defendant has died before any judgment has been entered against him, the public may still have an informational interest in the process by which the prosecutor seeks dismissal of an indictment.”

Emily Michot

@EmilyMichot

Attorney David Boies who represents several of Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged sex abuse victims, including
Virginia Roberts Giuffre, (pictured next to him on the left) walks into court for a special hearing Tuesday. ⁦@jkbjournalist⁩ ⁦@MiamiHerald

View image on Twitter

But ironically, this week’s District Court hearing marked the close of the federal criminal case, given Epstein’s “conveniently-timed” death. Reports CNBC:

Another Epstein lawyer, Martin Weinberg, told Berman that the defense team had prepared a “significant” motion to dismiss the case, and that the lawyers were not approaching the case with a “futile, defeatist attitude.”

Weingarten said Berman had a “pivotal role to find out what happened.”

“We want the court to help us find out what happened,” Weingarten said.

“We’re skeptical of the certitude” of the finding of suicide by hanging by the New York City medical examiner, the lawyer said.

There are “significant doubts” regarding “the conclusion of suicide,” Weingarten said.

Federal prosecutor Maurene Comey told the judge that Epstein’s death is already subject of “an ongoing and active grand jury investigation.” Comey explained, “It is not the purview, respectfully, of the court to conduct an investigation into uncharged matters.”

 

Image source: New York Times

But Tuesday’s proceedings and formal dismissal of the case on the grounds that the accused is deceased doesn’t necessarily mark an end of the road “nothing to see here” point in the saga, given a number of Epstein’s accusers have filed significant lawsuits against his estate, to say nothing of potential cases against his associates and enablers.

end
Oh my!! this is big.  Barr is certainly understanding the entirety of Russiagate.  He is now after a huge number of documents linking all the major players including Obama
a must read…
(zerohedge)

Here Is The List Of Obama-Era Russiagate Docs Sought By AG Barr

As the Trump DOJ attempts to sift through exactly what the Obama administration was pulling during the 2016 US election, Attorney General William Barr and his team of investigators are pursuing the following information, according to RealClear Investigations‘ Paul Sperry.

  • Agendas for former CIA chief John Brennan’s secret interagency task force meetings on alleged Trump-Russia collusion in the spring, summer and fall of 2016, which he sent in envelopes to FBI Director James Comey, Attorney General Loretta Lynch, and National Security Adviser Susan Rice.
  • A series of papers that task force, known as the “fusion cell,” drafted for the White House.
  • A classified August 2016 document Brennan hand-delivered in a sealed envelope to Obama containing information from someone Brennan described as “a critical informant close to Putin.” The informant is  believed to have beeen a Russian source recycled from a largely debunked dossier compiled by ex-British agent Christopher Steele for the Hillary Clinton campaign.
  • An email exchange from December 2016 between Brennan and Comey in which Brennan is said to have argued for using the Steele dossier in early drafts of the task force’s January 2017 intelligence assessment, which spread the narrative that Vladimir Putin personally ordered a hacking operation to harm Hillary Clinton’s election chances against Donald Trump.
  • All drafts of the Russia intelligence assessment, or ICA, along with classified footnotes revealing the sourcing behind it.
  • Confidential source reports, known as FD-1023s, summarizing briefings between FBI agents and the informants and assets they jointly handled with the CIA, including Christopher Steele, Felix Sater, Azra Turk, and ex-Cambridge professor Stefan Halper, who apparently lured Trump campaign advisers George Papadopoulos and Carter Page overseas, where he secretly tape-recorded them.
  • Transcripts of conversations Halper recorded prior to July 31, 2016, in which Papadopoulos allegedly “denies any illegal conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia,” according to Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz.
  • Copies of all FBI, CIA and State Department records related to Joseph Mifsud, the mysterious Maltese professor whose statements regarding Papadopoulos allegedly triggered the original Russia-collusion probe.
  • Diplomatic cables between Australia and the U.S. that mention former Australian diplomat Alexander Downer’s tip to the FBI that Papadopoulos allegedly bragged about Mifsud telling him the Russians had dirt on Hillary Clinton.
  • Queries former Obama National Security Adviser Susan Rice and U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power made to the NSA between January 2016 and January 2017 to unmask the identities of Trump figures caught up in upstream collections, or intercepts, of foreign nationals — including logs that remain under lock and key at an Obama Foundation storage site outside Chicago.
  • An Obama “interagency memorandum of understanding” signed by the FBI and CIA enabling outside contractors — including possibly Clinton campaign contractor Fusion GPS — to gain “improper access” (per a court opinion) to raw FISA data from November 2015 to April 2016.
  • Classified notes from late spring 2016 of Comey briefing White House officials on “the [Carter] Page information.”
  • At least four previously undisclosed, sealed Comey memos memorializing his conversations with Trump that are said to document the investigative steps taken by the FBI, as well as the codename and true name of a “confidential human source” — and evidence obtained from this source, including the identification of at least one Trump target.
  • Allegedly rejected FISA applications for warrants to spy on Page filed in June and July of 2016.
  • FISA applications to monitor Papadopoulos, former Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn, and former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort in 2016 — in addition to all versions of the Page applications that were approved from October 2016 to June 2017, along with supporting materials.
  • All summaries of interviews the FBI conducted with Steele in 2016, known as FD-302s, as well as the unredacted 302 reports of the FBI’s dozen interviews with Justice official Bruce Ohr, who provided back-channel briefings from Steele after the FBI terminated him in November 2016.
  • FBI 302 reports summarizing 2016 meetings with Russian oligarch (and FBI informant) Oleg Deripaska, who reportedly scoffed at the idea that Trump colluded with Moscow when agents visited him in New York.
  • FBI 302s of agents’ Feb. 10, 2017, interview with Mifsud during which the Mueller Report says Mifsud lied to agents.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report August 28, 2019 Issue 6080                                                                                Independent View of the News

For almost three years, elements in the CIA, DoJ, State Department and FBI subverted the Constitution and tried to remove DJT from office.  Now, a Street elite has issued seditious sophistry that encourages the Fed to interfere in the 2020 election in order to prevent DJT’s re-election.  You can’t make this up!!!

Just like Trump induced the MSM to totally obliterate the long-perpetuated fraud that is was unbiased, DJT is doing the same thing to Wall Street elites and Fed elements.

Bill Dudley, ex-NY Fed Prez/ex-GS chief economist, called for the Fed to undermine Trump and ensure that DJT is defeated in 2020.  B-Dud also opined that the Fed’s ability to interfere in elections is “within the Fed’s purview.”  This is not only seditious, it shows that elites, especially Street supreme beings, arrogantly believe that they are above the law and they better get their way or else someone will suffer.

B-Dud op-ed: The Fed Shouldn’t Enable Donald Trump

Central bank officials face a choice: enable the Trump administration to continue down a disastrous path of trade war escalation, or send a clear signal that if the administration does so, the president, not the Fed, will bear the risks — including the risk of losing the next election.

There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview.  After all, Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy, to the Fed’s independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives, to the Fed’s independence and its ability to achieve its employment  and inflation objectives.  If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-27/the-fed-shouldn-t-enable-donald-trump

Dudley’s shocking confession evinces how committed elites and the establishment are to globalism and elitism.  B-Dud destroyed the concept of an independent Fed and showed that coastal elites still ‘don’t get it’ as to why DJT was elected.  The fact that B-Dud felt the need to publish such an incendiary and incriminating op-ed implies that globalists, the establishment and coastal elitists are petrified of Trump.

Where’s the MSM and GOP outrage at Dudley for trying to incite the Fed to intervene in the 2020 Election?  Can you imagine the MSM and Dem outrage if an ex-Fed official had written an op-ed that called for Bernanke to employ polities that would thwart Obama’s re-election in 2012?

Dudley did no favor for Powell and the Fed.  Now that it’s clear that elites and globalists want Trump gone, the suspicion that Powell and his ilk are undermining Trump will grow – and DJT will use Dudley’s seditious op-ed as a cudgel against Powell and the Fed.

@zerohedge: Dudley, did you advise Bernanke & Yellen to do QE so that Obama would be reelected?  Asking since you are telling Powell to send the economy into a recession to make Trump a 1 termer?

Cornel Prof @DavidBCollum on B-Dud’s remarks: There is also an argument that the Fed is a menace to society, and it just got stronger.

Michael Lebowitz, CFA@michaellebowitz: Dudley really has some nerve. The Fed, with Dudley’s help for ten years, lays tons of economic tinder for economic troubles and then he places blame on the potential spark (Trump).

Zero Hedge: Dudley, who was among those globalists who enabled China’s tremendous ascent over the past three decades and ensured that Beijing will surpass the US economically and militarily at some point by 2032 if the status quo is left unchanged ignores the consequences of his own actions, and instead slams Trump for being the one president willing to challenge China’s hegemonic ascent…

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-27/bill-dudley-shocker-ex-ny-fed-president-urges-feds-powell-prevent-trump-re-election

Dudley deceitfully claims that Trump’s trade war is undermining consumer confidence.  Yesterday, the Confidence Board’s Consumer Confidence for August remained near its 2019 high and ‘present situation’ hit the highest level since November 1999.  Dudley is fixated on elitist/Street confidence.

U.S. consumer confidence is at its highest level in 19 years

The Conference Board’s index eased to 135.1 this month from a revised 135.8, according to data from the New York-based group Tuesday that exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The gauge of views on the present situation jumped to 177.2, the highest since November 2000, the expectations index decreased… https://bloom.bg/2zoRkvh

Confidence Board’s August Consumer Present Situation and Expectations

Contrary to B-Dud’s assertion, Consumer Confidence is not collapsing – and contrary to those trying to foment recession by announcing its presence (to undermine DJT), there is no recession in sight. Consumer confidence will not signal recession until it takes a significant decline. 

‘I don’t see this major recession,’ so let’s not talk ourselves into one, says Honeywell CEO

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/honeywell-ceo-darius-adamczyk-says-he-does-not-see-a-recession-coming.html

A recession in 2020 would hurt Trump, but it wouldn’t necessarily sink his reelection

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/recession-would-likely-hurt-trump-in-2020-but-he-could-still-win.html

@randallwforsyth: Is a Recession Coming?.. Jobless claims are an infallible leading indicator of a downturn, not distorted by trillions of negative-yielding bonds… Watch credit markets, jobless claims, temporary help employment, and confidence for signs that the slowdown…  https://twitter.com/randallwforsyth/status/1166346846173839366

Dudley’s call for the Fed to subvert the US Constitution induced some pundits to republish an 8-year old article that showed how far out of touch the Street elitist was with average Americans.

Reuters: iPad price remark gets Fed’s Dudley an earful    March 11, 2011

After being bombarded with questions about food inflation, Dudley attempted to reassure his audience by putting rising commodity prices into a broader economic context — but that only made matters worse.

   “When was the last time, sir, that you went grocery shopping?” one audience member asked… “Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful,” he said.  ”You have to look at the prices of all things.”  This prompted guffaws and widespread murmuring from the audience, with one audience member calling the comment “tone deaf.”  “I can’t eat an iPad,” another said.   https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-dudley-ipad-idUSTRE72A4AC20110311

We’ve said it many times over the past few years and we will say it again: Trump’s super power is driving his haters crazy, which induces his enemies to reveal and destroy themselves.

@Schuldensuehner: ECB balance sheet resumes uptrend. Total assets rose by €4.9bn to €4,681.0bn, equal to 40.4% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed’s 17.6%, BoJ’s 102.2% and SNB’s 117.7%.

ESUs rallied during the Nikkei’s 1st Session and declined during the 2nd Session, an intensifying trend.

The ESU decline continued until 13 minutes after the European open.  Then, someone juiced ESUs from the low of 2869.25 to 2899.50 at 9:48 ET.  That was the top.  ESUs tumbled to a 2869.50 at 12:05 ET.  Traders tried to generate a Noon Balloon; it failed.  At 13:00 ET, ESUs bottomed at 2860.

As US stocks cascaded at midday, gold surged to $1553, a 1% gain.  Bonds rallied smartly.  Defensive asset allocators were in the market.  Did the market interpret B-Dud’s seditious rhetoric as insight into Powell and the Fed’s thinking about DJT?  How many Fed officials are members of B-Dud’s resistance?

The afternoon rally appeared on schedule and started robustly.  ESUs jumped 16 handles in 37 minutes.  ESUs rescinded half of their early afternoon rally by 14:30 ET.  A pre-last hour rally carried into the final hour, creating an ‘A-B-C’ corrective rally.  The ‘C’ wave appeared because someone was determined to boost ESUs and stocks during the final hour.  Real and VWAP sellers were grateful to the manipulators; they started to unload 5 minutes after the final hour commenced.  ESUs tanked 9 handles near the close!

Positive aspects of previous session

Robust rally from 13 minutes after the European open to 18 minutes after the NYSE open

A-B-C corrective afternoon rally

Wealth Tax Drives Wedge into German Coalition as Recession Looms – The leadership of the Social Democrats, Merkel’s junior coalition partner, on Monday backed a proposal in principle that would aim to impose a 1% tax on wealth, a revenue stream that could be worth around $10 billion annually. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, who comes from the party, last week expressed support for the idea…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-26/wealth-tax-latest-test-for-german-coalition-as-recession-looms

 

Democrats’ Emerging Tax Idea: Look beyond Income, Target Wealth

Lawmakers and 2020 candidates offer a range of options focused on capturing some of the trillions of dollars in assets belonging to the nation’s richest

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-emerging-tax-idea-look-beyond-income-target-wealth-11566916571

Democratic billionaires, like Buffett and Gates, should have realized long ago that socialists, like notorious bank robber Willie Sutton, go where the money is.

The Fed had to issue a statement to rebuke B-Dud; so the bank could disassociate itself from his plot.

“The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions are guided solely by its congressional mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. Political considerations play absolutely no role,” Fed spokeswoman Michelle Smith said in an emailed statement… [B-Dud helped DJT; maybe he is a covert DJT operative.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-27/ex-fed-official-dudley-s-call-to-block-trump-draws-criticism

 

Strategist @albertedwards99: What if the Fed have [already] decided to do something along the lines Dudley outlines and crash the economy via tardy rate cuts in order to remove Trump in Nov 2020?

Today – The Trump rally that began on Sunday night peaked 18 minutes after the NYSE open on Tuesday.  Defensive asset allocators took control of the markets thereafter.

Ergo, barring news or impact tweets, the presence or absence of defensive asset allocation will determine today’s trend.  The window for August performance gaming opens this afternoon.

Will the ‘A-B-C’ corrective rally from yesterday afternoon extend into a 5 wave rally?  When will DJT respond to and exploit B-Dud’s ill-conceived call for the Fed to unseat the president?  What officials did B-Dud consult before he penned his incendiary op-ed?  B-Dud’s history is not that of an individualist.

The S&P 500 Index must not violate its 2856 low from Tuesday.  2900 is firm resistance.

Unless you’re a day trader that desperately needs money, why would you play in this market now?

The S&P 500 Index is hovering above critical support at 2822-25, the triple lows this month.  A breach of 2822 should quickly instigate a test of the S&P 500 DMA at 2802 and later, the June low.

John Solomon @jsolomonReports: Small businesses, doctors, and health care providers secretly devising a health care plan to help Trump and GOP win 2020 election

     The group has  assembled data on how ObamaCare has made a few health care companies richer and more powerful while shrinking the choices, quality and personalization of health care delivery… under ObamaCare, how 53 percent of American doctors no longer own their practices, having been forced into insurer-hospital collectives… large numbers of ObamaCare recipients who don’t get subsidies have dropped from the program… Big Medicine has led to unnecessary tests to generate profits, and led to the rationing of personalized care. And they are chronicling the extinction of the independent family doctor across American communities… They have assembled an army of doctors, patients and small business owners tens of thousands strong that is ready to take the case to the grassroots…

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/459006-how-trump-can-avoid-a-gop-fumble-on-health-care-that-could-derail-his#.XWWgrfby0ZM.twitter

Dem court filing suggests Trump impeachment probe began before Mueller even submitted report

Appears to contradict previous statements by committee chairman Rep. Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif… But Monday’s filing in a separate case looking to compel testimony from former White House counsel Don McGahn suggested that it had already started on March 4 — weeks before Mueller sent his report to Attorney General Bill Barr on March 22…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-court-filing-claims-impeachment-probe-began-before-mueller-submitted-report

Sanders: China had done more to address extreme poverty ‘than any country in the history of civilization’ –  “China is a country that is moving unfortunately in a more authoritarian way in a number of directions,” Sanders told Hill.TV’s Krystal Ball. “But what we have to say about China in fairness to China and it’s leadership is if I’m not mistaken they have made more progress in addressing extreme poverty than any country in the history of civilization, so they’ve done a lot of things for their people.”…

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/458976-sanders-china-had-done-more-to-address-extreme-poverty-than-any-country-in-the

@JordanSchachtel: What Bernie doesn’t seem to understand: 100s of millions in China were lifted out of extreme poverty not because of some govt decree, but because Beijing was forced to abandon its communist econ model. Central planning had them on brink of collapse.

‘Cranky’ Bernie Sanders blasted by restaurant owner for being ‘rude to his staff and refusing to take pictures or shake their hands and not leaving a tip’ during campaign stop in San Francisco

    ‘It was all very nice, except for cranky Bernie,’ Konstin told Politico. ‘He was just rude, not friendly. Housekeeper said that Sanders did leave a tip, and, upon their exit from the premises, Sanders’ wife Jane apologized to the staff for her husband’s behavior…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7397325/Owner-famed-San-Francisco-restaurant-blasts-cranky-Bernie-Sanders-rude-staff.html

 

Remember Dukakis in the tank?  Here’s Bernie at the speed bag. [If you don’t want to access the video: Bernie, in rolled up shirt sleeves, whacks the speed bag and the rebound smacks him in the head.] https://twitter.com/RealMAGASteve/status/1166439013936447489

Warren Proposes ‘Dept of Economic Development’ to Regulate Economy [replace Commerce Dept]

https://hannity.com/media-room/back-to-the-ussr-elizabeth-warren-proposes-department-of-economic-development-to-fix-economy/

Politico: Execs claim Biden’s brother offered Biden’s help promoting business venture

New allegations tie the former VP directly to his brother’s private dealings.

     The allegations are consistent with others made over the years that relatives of Biden have sought to enrich themselves off of his public service. But they go further, representing the first explicit claims that James Biden offered to have the former vice president use his clout to further private business interests.

     The allegations come in sworn declarations made by executives at firms suing Biden’s brother that were filed in federal court on Friday. They do not allege any wrongdoing by Joe Biden or indicate that the former vice president had knowledge of his brother’s alleged promises…

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/joe-biden-brother-2020-1475897

John Kerry’s [step] son cut business ties with Hunter Biden over Ukrainian oil deal

Why would Chris Heinz distance himself from Hunter Biden’s decision to join Burisma’s board in an email to John Kerry’s senior staff at the State Department?” said Citizens United President David N. Bossie in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “It’s time for Joe Biden to answer questions about his family’s business in the Ukraine and what his own role was in those dealings.”…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/john-kerrys-son-cut-business-ties-with-hunter-biden-over-ukrainian-oil-deal

Mounting evidence shows the MSM can dish it out 24/7; but they have extremely thin skin.

ABC News: New York Times columnist quits Twitter after being called a ‘bedbug’

A Times editor tweeted, “There are bedbugs in the NYT newsroom.”  “The bedbugs are a metaphor,” Dave Karpf, an associate professor at George Washington University, replied. “The bedbugs are Bret Stephens.”…   https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/york-times-columnist-quits-twitter-called-bedbug/story

@HowardKurtz: The NY Times is outraged over an effort by Trump allies to dig up public tweets by journalists as a way of embarrassing them. But don’t news outlets do the same thing to people in the political world?   https://www.foxnews.com/media/paper-says-past-tweets-should-be-used-against-politicos-but-not-journalists

Him a Bedbug – Dave Karpf, a media and public affairs professor for George Washington University who called him a “bedbug.”  This appeared to be an off-hand joke about the news that the Times recently had a bedbug outbreak in their newsrooms…

https://www.mediaite.com/print/bret-stephens-is-deactivating-his-twitter-account-after-blowing-up-at-man-who-called-him-a-bedbug/

CNN’s Brian Stelter widely ridiculed after blaming tech issues for bizarre anti-Trump segment Trump is as destructive a person in this century as Hitler, Stalin, Mao were in the last centuryHe may be responsible for many more million deaths than they were,” psychiatrist Dr. Allen Frances told Stelter on Sunday… “I agree that I should have interrupted after that line. I wish I had heard him say it, but I was distracted by tech difficulties,” Stelter responded on Twitter. “Not hearing the comment is my fault.”… https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-brian-stelter-rough-week-trump

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

 

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