AUGUST 30/OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR LONDON OTC/LBMA GOLD AND SILVER FINALLY OVER/ GOLD DOWN $7.00 TO $1521.00 BUT SILVER HOLDS UP QUITE WELL DOWN ONLY 2 CENTS TO $18.22 AND THEN FULLY REMOVERS IN THE ACCESS MARKET TO $18.36// ON FIRST DAY NOTICE A MONSTROUS 33 PLUS MILLION OZ OF SILVER IS STANDING FOR DELIVERY//ALSO 4 PLUS TONNES OF GOLD STANDING (OFF MONTH FOR GOLD)//CRISIS FOR THE EU AS TURKEY RELEASES BOATLOADS OF MIGRANTS ON GREEK SHORES//ARGENTINA DECLARES A SELECTIVE DEFAULT AND THIS GIVES THE IMF SEVERE MIGRAINES//

GOLD:$1521.00 DOWN $7.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $18.22 DOWN 2 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

Gold : $1523.50

 

silver:  $18.36

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 859/1279

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,526.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/29/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/03/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 677
132 C SG AMERICAS 2
152 C DORMAN TRADING 13
323 H HSBC 295
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 261
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 366
661 H JP MORGAN 523
686 C INTL FCSTONE 85
690 C ABN AMRO 100
737 C ADVANTAGE 36 69
800 C MAREX SPEC 121
905 C ADM 7
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1,279 1,279
MONTH TO DATE: 1,279

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 1279 NOTICE(S) FOR 127,900 OZ (3.978 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1279 NOTICES FOR 127900 OZ  (3.978 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

4862 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 24,310,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4862 for   24,310,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9581 UP 89 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9536 UP 44

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 3150 CONTRACTS FROM 227,327 DOWN TO 224,177… WITH THE 13 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT: 2444 , AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2444 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2444 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2444 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 12.22 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 13 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

33.715   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH SOME SUCCESS..BUT WE HAD HUGE SPREADING LIQUIDATION. THE PROCESS SHOULD END TODAY AND THEN WE START THE ACCUMULATION PROCESS FOR GOLD ON TUESDAY.

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

43,294 CONTRACTS (FOR 22 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 43,294 CONTRACTS) OR 216.47 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1967 CONTRACTS OR 9.839 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  216.47 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 30.92% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1549.71   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3150, WITH THE 13 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2444 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED: 7237 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2444 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 3150  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.24 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.121 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 160% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 4862 NOTICE(S) FOR 24,310,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

AND NOW WE ARE WITHIN A WHISKER OF ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,169  BUT THIS TIME  THE PRICE OF SILVER YESTERDAY WAS $17.18 AND HIGHER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

 

 

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/AND NOW SEPT: 33.715 MILLION OZ//
  2. CLOSE TO THE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 244,169 CONTRACTS (OR 1.228 BILLION OZ/, THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW IN FULL SWING AND UNDERGOING ITS FINAL LIQUIDATION..THIS IS ONLY FOR SILVER ALMOST ALL OF THE LOSS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS……. THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD  STOPS FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH BUT WILL START IN EARNEST ONCE WE ENTER THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. AS I STATED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:  “IN SILVER WE WOULD NORMALLY WITNESS A HUGE COLLAPSE IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST AS WE PROCEED TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER”…AND TRUE TO FORM THAT PLAYED OUT PERFECTLY THESE PAST FEW DAYS

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,783 CONTRACTS, TO 618,946 ACCOMPANYING THE $11.65 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// //THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION  OPERATION BY THE BANKERS WILL FINISH TONIGHT FOR SILVER …. THE  ACCUMULATION PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD WILL COMMENCE STARTING SEPT 3  AS THEY WILL CONTINUE ADDING TO THEIR STACK UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH 

 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 12,782 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  12,782 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 618,946,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1999 CONTRACTS: 10,783 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 12,782 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 1999 CONTRACTS OR 199,900 OZ OR 6.217 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $11.65 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 6.217  TONNES!!!!!!. THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON .

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 205,641 CONTRACTS OR 20,564,100 oz OR 639.62 TONNES (22 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9347 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 22 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 639.62 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 639.62/3550 x 100% TONNES =18.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4151.32  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8,083 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($11.65)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 12,782 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12,782 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD  A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1999 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

12,782 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,783 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 6.217 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $11.65 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  1279 notice(s) filed upon for 127,900 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3150 CONTRACTS from 227,327 DOWN TO 224,177 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR DEC. 2444  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2444 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 3150  CONTRACTS TO THE 2444 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A LOSS OF 706 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.53 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//SEPT 2019: 33.715 MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2444 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.68 POINTS OR 0.16%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 21.23 POINTS OR 0.08%   /The Nikkei closed UP 245.44 POINTS OR 1.19%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.40%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1494 /Oil DOWN TO 55.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.97 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1494 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1473 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)Kyle Bass and others feel that Hong Kong is prepared for a mainland invasion

(zerohedge)

ii)China’s crackdown escalates with multiple arrests

(zerohedge)

iii)We have been telling you on the ebola pig virus and postulated that pork prices would soon skyrocket. We were right  China is now reeling as pork prices explode(zerohedge)

iv)China/USA

Seems that China shut out the USA for lobster as their exports to China crashed by 80%. No doubt that the big winner would be Canada.

(zerohedge)

v)China rejects Lam’s proposal to appease the protesters.  The leaders who were arrested have been released and the march scheduled for tomorrow has been cancelled

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Our resident expert on the Brexit, Mish Shedlock states that the Boris Johnson move was foolproff

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

ii)And now a Scottish judge rejects the bid to stop Bo.Jo from suspending parliament ahead of Brexit day

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran

Looks like Iran is having their problems: their new space launch ends in explosion(zerohedge)

ii)Iran/USA

Interesting instead of bombing Iran, Trump ordered the hacking of Iran’s paramilitary force

(zerohedge)

iii)Turkey/Iran/Lebanon

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s oil tanker is now said to be heading to Lebanon

(zeorhedge)

iv)Turkey/EU

This is a crisis to the EU as now Turkey unloads hundreds of migrants onto Greek shores
(KeeingTalkingGreece.com)

6.Global Issues

DeBeers reports a huge crash in sales of 44% as demand for diamonds collapse

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Argentina

Argentina is now officially in default as they delay payments on bonds.  This also triggers credit default swaps.  S and P now downgrades Argentina’s debt to what is called selective default

(zerohedge)

ii)India

The global slowdown is certainly having a huge effect on the economy in India.  Now its car manufacturing sector has halted production

(zerohedge)

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Huge paper today from Alasdair Macleod:

Negative interest rates drive people out of paper assets into gold.  It also stops the gold carry trade as bankers cannot make any money loaning gold.

(Alasdair Macleod)

ii)Our good friend Jeff Christian is again spilling disinformation on silver

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

iii)Jim Bianco explains why negative rates are toxic to the financial scene and like Alasdair Macleod he sees that gold will hit record highs this year

(Jim Bianco)

iv)Platinum prices jump on hope for stimulus in the car industry in China

(zerohedge)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks Plunge, Dollar Spikes Into European Close As Tariff Delay Hopes Fade

Don’t show President Trump this chart…

Source: Bloomberg

On a broad trade-weighted basis, the dollar has never been stronger against the rest of the world’s fiat currencies.

And following this morning’s comments  from European Central Bank policy maker Ewald Nowotny, that adding equity purchases to the ECB’s monetary-policy mix isn’t a realistic option,

“I would completely exclude it” as a tool because “for Europe it is inappropriate,” Nowotny told reporters in Alpbach, Austria.

“We can tweak the instruments we have to a certain extent, but I wouldn’t expect us to have new measures.”

“The central bank has to know what’s going on in the markets but it should not be following the markets,” said Nowotny, whose term as head of the Austrian central bank expires on Saturday.

“It should kind of steer the markets, and lead the markets, and there might be a certain danger that we’re too much following.”

And EURUSD is trading back to a 1.09 handle for the first time since May 2017.

Source: Bloomberg

This has sent the dollar surging to new highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, we note that Nowotny raised some graver concerns overnight, warning that three generations without war in western Europe have created a potentially dangerous imbalance in the economy.

“The fortune of a now 74-year period of peace has inevitably led to a tremendous accumulation of wealth on the one hand and debt on the other,” the Austrian central-bank governor said in an interview with Wiener Zeitung.

“In the past, wars or high inflation have effectively taken care of this problem. How we solve it without both these factors remains open.”

Can Lagarde save the world from this ominous future?

The US equity markets are reacting significantly to the surge in the dollar into the EU close…

Presumably we are running out of time for the tariffs to be delayed at the last minute.

ii)Market data/USA

a)USA spending outpaces income by a wide margin.  Thus the savings rate drops dramatically

(zerohedge)

b)Univ. of Michigan confidence plummets as consumers face the tariff cliff

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,783 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 618,946 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS  OF $11.65 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 12,782 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCTOBER; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 12,782   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  12,782 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 1999 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 12,782 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE 10,783 COMEX CONTRACTS

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD INITIATING A RAID TO CAUSE SOME GOLD CONTRACTS TO FALL OUT OF THE MONEY.AS FRIDAY IS OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR THE OTC/LBMA LONDON CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  1999 CONTRACTS OR 199,900 OZ OR 6.21 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPTEMBER and here the open interest stands at 1384 CONTRACTS as we LOST JUST 74 contracts. Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold ounces standing in this non active delivery month of September is as follows:

1384 notices x   100 oz per contact equals:   138400 oz or 4.304 tonnes. The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 1795 contracts DOWN to 45,055. After October, we have the active delivery month of December and here we have a LOSS of 9046 contracts and the total OI stands at  461,440

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 1279 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  127900 OZ. (3.978 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI fell BY A LARGE SIZED 3150 CONTRACTS FROM 227,327 DOWN TO 224,177 WITH MOST OF THE LOSS DUE TO SPREADERS LIQUIDATION.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196, CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  HERE WE HAVE A MONSTROUS 6724 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 7409 CONTRACTS.

OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 286 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1179.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 2758 CONTRACTS UP TO 174,367.

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 4862 notice(s) filed for 24,310,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 321,108  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  481,453  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

AUGUST 30/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1279 notice(s)
 127900 OZ
(3.978 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
105 contracts
(10500 oz)
0.3265 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1279 notices
127,900 OZ
3.978 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/  TODAY: no amount  arrived

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 1 adjustment today
from HSBC  29,461.860 oz was adjusted out of the customer account into the dealer account.
still no sign of settlements.
FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1279 contract(s) of which 336 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 523 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1279) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (1384 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1279 x 100 oz per contract) equals 138,400 OZ OR 4.304 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1279 x 100 oz)  + (1384)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1279 x 100 oz )which equals 138,400 oz standing OR 4.304 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPT.

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 4.304 TONNES IN SEPT.// JUDGING BY THE HUGE SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY IS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX.  FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 4.304 TONNES (EQUALS 31.457 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,057,109.796 oz 250.60 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 34 MONTHS 108 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 30 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 50,233.803 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
900,463.962 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
4862
CONTRACT(S)
(24,310,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1862 contracts
 931,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  4862 contracts

24,310,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT:  900,463.962 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  900,463.962  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT: 50,233.803 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 50,233.803  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 1,142,027.810 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

total dealer silver:  81.244 million

total dealer + customer silver:  311.899 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 4862 contract(s) FOR 24,310,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4862 x 5,000 oz = 24,310,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (6724) and the number of notices served upon today 4862 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 4862 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (6724)- number of notices served upon today (4862)x 5000 oz equals 33,620,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER. 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 4862 notice(s) filed for 24,310,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  110,554 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 192,060 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 192,060 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 960 million  OZ 137% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.35% ((AUGUST 30/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.06% to NAV (AUGUST 30/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.35%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.41 TRADING 14.93/DISCOUNT 3.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

 

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

AUGUST 30/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 880.36 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 654 TRADING DAYS: 55.02 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 554- TRADING DAYS: A NET 111.63 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/2019:

 

 

Inventory 388.154 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 2.03

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.90%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.06

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Silver Gains 6% To $18.40/oz and Gold Consolidates Over $1,500/oz This Week

Silver in USD – 10 Years (Silverprice.org)

News and Commentary

Gold steadies near six-year high, silver jumps as growth risks persist

Silver rally is stealing the show even as gold surges to 6-year high

Around 1,000 fake-branded bars likely from China slip dirty gold into Asian gold markets

Trump says US and China resume trade talks Thursday ‘at a different level’

China sends fresh troops into Hong Kong as military pledges to protect ‘national sovereignty’

Japan-South Korea dispute is a sign that the world order is ‘collapsing’ 

BOE: The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the Current International Monetary and Financial System 

JP Morgan: Is the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” coming to an end?

Gold consolidates over $1,500 and reaches new record highs in GBP and EUR

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

29-Aug-19 1536.65 1540.20, 1260.51 1262.96 & 1387.29 1392.03
28-Aug-19 1541.75 1537.15, 1263.31 1258.77 & 1389.89 1387.43
27-Aug-19 1531.85 1532.95, 1250.91 1247.51 & 1378.97 1380.88
26-Aug-19 UK Bank Holiday
23-Aug-19 1495.50 1503.80, 1224.37 1228.91 & 1351.48 1357.63
22-Aug-19 1498.70 1502.05, 1234.63 1225.97 & 1351.98 1354.10
21-Aug-19 1499.65 1503.25, 1235.41 1238.53 & 1351.48 1354.43
20-Aug-19 1502.65 1504.55, 1242.69 1239.60 & 1356.44 1357.86

Listen and Watch Jim Rogers Interview Here

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Huge paper today from Alasdair Macleod:

Negative interest rates drive people out of paper assets into gold.  It also stops the gold carry trade as bankers cannot make any money loaning gold.

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: Negative rates will drive people out of fiat money and into real assets and gold

 Section: 

2:26p ET Thursday, August 29, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Negative interest rates, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today, will drive people out of money and into real assets and gold. Macleod adds that negative rates also will kill what’s left of the gold carry trade, diminishing incentive for central banks to lend their monetary metal. Macleod sees negative rates as the start of the dismantling of the U.S. dollar-based world financial system.

His analysis is headlined “Negative Interest Rates and Gold” and it’s posted at GoldMoney here:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/negative-interest-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

 

Our good friend Jeff Christian is again spilling disinformation on silver

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

Dave Kranzler: CPM Group’s Christian again spreads disinformation, this time about silver

 Section: 

3:15p ET Thursday, August 29, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Metals consultancy CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics writes today, is again spreading disinformation, this time about silver demand, in the service of his client central banks. Contrary to Christian’s assertions, Kranzler writes, demand for silver is strong, comes largely from Asia, and has little to do with U.S. silver coins, and the statistics presented by Christian are false.

Kranzler’s analysis is headlined “Don’t Let CPM Group Feed You a Bag of Brown Stuff About Silver” and it’s posted at IRD here:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/dont-let-the-cpm-group-feed-you-a-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATa.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Jim Bianco explains why negative rates are toxic to the financial scene and like Alasdair Macleod he sees that gold will hit record highs this year

(Jim Bianco)

Bianco Warns “Negative Rates Are Extremely Toxic”, Sees Gold At Record Highs By Year-End

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via TheMarket.ch,

Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, cautions against evermore unconventional monetary policy interventions. He fears that the global slowdown is going to get worse and he spots opportunities in long-term bonds and gold.

The global economy is on the brink: Europe is headed for recession, Japan as well and China’s growth rate is the slowest in almost thirty years. Only the economy in the United States seems to hold up. But for how long?

«We live in a global world and if Japan and Europe are struggling and the world has a problem it’s going to come to the US eventually», says Jim Bianco.

According to the internationally renowned macro strategist, the biggest threat to the US economy is the inverted yield curve.

«This is the market’s way of saying the Federal Funds Rate is too high and must come down», Mr. Bianco is convinced.

Against this backdrop, the founder and President of Chicago based Bianco Research argues that the Federal Reserve should cut its target rate by 50 basis points at the next FOMC meeting. He also cautious against introducing negative interest rates in the United States during the next recession because in his view that would cripple the global financial system.

In this at-length interview with The Market, the profound financial market observer explains where he spots opportunities for investors in today’s challenging economic environment.

Mr. Bianco, the summer is basically over and we are heading into the final stretch of the year. What’s ahead for the financial markets in the coming months?

There are two issues at play: First, the trade and currency wars where the situation reminds me somewhat of «This Is Spinal Tap». It’s a cult satire movie from the eighties about a rock band and they coined the phrase «up to eleven» because that’s how high their amplifier went. So the expression «turning it up to eleven» refers to the act of taking something to an extreme. I’m saying this because I think Trump is “going to eleven” on trade: He’s going to turn it up so high that there is going to have to be a deal. That’s the way he wants to do this. He will just make it intolerable so everybody has to sit down and cut a deal.

What’s the other issue?

The inverted yield curve. The three-month/ten-year curve has been inverted since May and this is the market’s way of saying the Federal Funds Rate is too high and must come down. It is interesting how hard everyone is standing on their head to dismiss the yield curve and tell me why it’s different this time. This is not surprising, as it tends to happen every time the curve inverts until the recession hits. It might be different this time, but I still think that the yield curve is telling us that the Federal Reserve has to cut rates and it has to cut them aggressively.

Why is the inverted yield curve such a problem?

An inverted curve damages the economy. Accumulate enough damage and the economy sinks into recession. So, the curve does not predict a recession, it causes it. What is not known is how much damage the economy can withstand. Currently, the three-month/ten-year curve is at -49 basis points. It hit -52 Sunday night and it’s getting close to the 2007 extreme of -60, which is the most inverted reading of the last two decades.

You were interviewed by the White House in May for one of the open positions on the Board of Fed Governors. What should the Fed do at the next FOMC meeting on September 18?

The late economist Rudi Dornbusch coined the phrase that the Fed murders the economy by holding policy too tight for too long. Well, take careful note because that seems to be what the Fed might be doing yet again. The market is screaming to cut rates aggressively and the Fed is fighting it. So the question is how much it takes to un-invert the yield curve. At -49 basis points, that means a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting next month is not going to un-invert the curve. You are going to need to cut 50 basis points or something along those lines.

At 2 to 2.25%, the Federal Funds Target Rate is already quite low. Shouldn’t the Fed be more careful than usual with its ammunition?

The “running out of bullets” argument is dangerous: either Fed cuts work or they do not. If cutting rates do not stimulate now, they will definitely not work if you save them until things get worse. Holding them back does nothing. So go hard now, cut hard now. If it works, great. If it does not work, saving the bullets for a rainy day would not have made a difference anyhow.

Then again, at the Jackson Hole conference last week Fed Chair Powell reinforced his view that the US economy is in good shape. Where do you see trouble brewing?

You don’t see it in the economic data but you will find it when you look at interest rates in the developed world. Today, the highest interest rates in the developed world are the 30-year Italy government bond and the Fed Funds Rate at around 2.1%. The Fed Fund Rates has never been that big of an outlier before. So the market is saying: We live in a global world, relative interest rates matter and the Fed Funds Rate is out of line with everything else.

Why do relative interest rates matter?

There was a paper delivered on Saturday in Jackson Hole about the effects that globalization has on monetary policy. It pretty much said the same thing: The reality is that we live in a global world. So you have Draghi at the ECB being at -40 basis points and Kuroda at the Bank of Japan being at -10 basis points. They’re dragging their rates to negative which is forcing the rates in the US down as well. The global economy is going to be perceived as weak and on top of that, you have the whole trade situation. That’s why the bond market is going to continue to send messages that there are problems and I think the stock market is going to continue to churn sideways to lower until there is some kind of resolution.

How serious is this threat to the global recession?

All those low global rates are signaling a big problem in the world. I think Europe is in a recession. Italy has negative GDP and Germany had three of the last four quarters either zero or negative GDP. Industrial production numbers out of Germany are terrible, and Japan is very close to being in recession, too. At the same time, economic data in China is at thirty years lows. That’s what’s holding interest rates in Europe down all the way to negative and is forcing the rates in the US down as well. We live in a global world and if Japan and Europe are struggling and the world has a problem it’s going to come to the US eventually, too. That’s why the market is telling us the Fed has to cut rates.

So why isn’t there a greater sense of urgency at the Fed? At the last FOMC meeting, Powell characterized the first rate since 2008 as a «mid-cycle adjustment,» not «the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle.»

The problem is that nobody knows what mid-cycle adjustment means. As we speak, the market is pricing in four more rate cuts in the next year. That means a total of five rate cuts, including the July 31 rate cut. So the market is pricing in something that the consensus of economists is nowhere near. If you look at a recent Bloomberg survey, only seven of sixty economists had the Fed cutting rates five times. The other 53 had the Fed cutting less than five times. What’s unusual about this cycle is that the market is an outlier right now. Again: it comes back to the fact, that consensus economists are looking at US domestic economic data and they don’t see trouble whereas the market is looking at global data and it sees trouble.

But there’s also the well-known line that the market predicted nine of the last five recessions.

Economists can only wish they were this good! They have predicted none of the recessions in the last 50 years. What economists usually do is that they give you a 30% chance of recession. That means a 70% chance that there isn’t one. And then, when the recession hits, they stay at 30% because they think it’s going to end soon. The old joke about stock salesmen used to be that they never see a bear market and when there actually is one, they’re screaming it’s over. That’s kind of what economists do in terms of predicting a recession: they never ever predict one.

So what’s going to happen next?

This story has played out many times in the past during similar economic turning points: The market is ahead of the Fed and economists and is calling for rate cuts. The next month or two will prove critically important in determining which opinion prevails.

Should the Fed follow other Central Banks and introduce negative interest rates in the United States if a recession can’t be averted?

I believe that negative interest rates are extremely toxic for the financial system. Economists and the Fed make the mistake that they look at negative rates from the lens of borrowers, and when you are a borrower of money lower is better, zero is better, negative is better. That linear relationship holds up all the way through and I agree with that.

What’s the problem with negative rates then?

The problem is that they’re not looking at it from the perspective of the financial system. Where are borrowers going to get the money from? They are going to get it from the financial system and that’s where the lender is. The financial system has been built on the idea of positive interest rates. So negative interest rates in the US would become a big problem for the financial system. The banking system cannot function properly with negative interest rates and neither can the pension system. Also, all the valuation measures that we’ve invented – whether it’s the Fed model, the capital asset pricing model or even the Black-Scholes options model – don’t work with negative interest rates. That’s because when these models were developed no one had thought of the possibility that we would see zero or even negative interest rates.

Are negative interest rates already damaging the financial system?

I see it happening in Europe. There are cracks appearing in the financial system. The German banks are screaming and yelling about it to the ECB. The only thing that might be holding them together is that they have the option of positive interest rates in the US, in the UK and some other countries. Today, 94% of all interest earned income in the developed world comes from U.S. debt. That’s also the reason why UBS and Credit Suisse can survive despite what’s going on with deeply negative interest rates in Switzerland. They are global banks with a big footprint in the US where they get positive rates. Once they lose that option, they’re in big trouble as well, like all the other banks. So if the US sinks into economic weakness and decides to go negative it will really cripple the banking system.

What’s your take on the Dollar against this backdrop?

I’m only a mild Dollar bull at this point. Last Friday, there was some speculation about a direct intervention in the Dollar exchange rate by the Treasury for the first time in over twenty years. I think that would be a giant mistake. I suspect that as long as the rates in the US are going to stay up and the Fed is going to be slow in cutting them there will be underlying support for the Dollar. I don’t see it really weakening much. So the path of least resistance will probably continue to be sideways to up in the Dollar.

What should investors do with their money in this market environment?

Investors should be recognizing that with the economic slowdown there will be a further rally in bonds and that would probably mean deeper negative yields in Europe. Keep in mind, going to negative interest rates in Europe has led to some eye-popping total returns: The total return on 15+ year government bonds in Switzerland is 30% this year versus 16% on the S&P 500. In the US, the thirty-year treasury bond is reporting a 20% total return.

These government bonds trade almost like the FAANG stocks. Isn’t that a reason for caution?

I think rates will continue to go lower as a perception of economic weakness and more Fed cuts to come. So you are going to have good total returns in safe assets and risk assets are going to struggle. But once we get a sense that there is a bottom in the global economy, or some kind of resolution in trade, or the Fed decides to get aggressive and starts talking about a 50 basis point rate cut, then you can maybe review the option of moving back to more risk assets. But right now, risk assets are going to be problematic and safe assets like long term government bonds will provide you a great capital return.

Do you think the yield on ten-year US treasuries will take out the all-time low of July 2016?

Yes. Right now, we’re at about ten basis points away. So it’s not a hard call at this point to say that the ten-year yield will take out the 2016 low. The thirty-year yield already has.

Where else do you spot opportunities?

Gold has a nearly perfect correlation to the amount of negative debt in the world.

So if rates continue to move lower and negative debt continues to grow, that will be a positive factor for gold and gold will continue to catch a bid. For 5000 years, the problem with gold was that it yields nothing. Today, gold is the high yielding alternative in a world with negative interest rates. As long as we don’t see a bottom in the global economy, no immediate resolution to trade, and the Fed doesn’t get aggressive, I could see the gold price hitting $1700 or $1800 in the fourth quarter and maybe even making a run at the all-time high of $1900 before the end of the year.

end

Platinum prices jump on hope for stimulus in the car industry in China
(zerohedge)

Platinum Prices Jump On China Stimulus Hopes; Seen As Catch-Up Trade To Gold & Silver 

China is expected to dramatically ease restrictions on automobile purchases to help boost domestic consumption.

This includes new measures that will relax or lift restrictions and support the purchase of new cars, according to a new guideline that outlined 20 steps to spur economic growth issued by the State Council of the People’s Republic of China.

The State Council said in a statement that local governments across 23 provinces should consider relaxing or removing restrictions on vehicle purchases and encourage purchases of new energy vehicles.

As a result, global auto stocks have stabilized this week on the news that Beijing is expected to loosen restrictions.

 

More importantly, platinum is up 10% in 68 trading hours on hopes China’s domestic automobile industry can be revived.

Platinum is used in making catalytic converters, which all modern automobiles are equipped with these devices that reduce emissions of harmful compounds found in car exhaust, including Carbon monoxide (a poisonous gas) and Nitrogen oxides (a cause of smog and acid rain).

On average, 3 to 7 grams of platinum is used in making a standard catalytic converter, but the amount varies on manufacturer and model.

Platinum has tumbled 60% in 46 quarters thanks to weaker demand and excess supply, whereas gold and silver have been accumulated in droves as per a hedge against a dovish Federal Reserve.

Trading at 2008 lows, platinum has been trying to base in the 1,000 to 750 level for 43 months.

Among the contributing factors mentioned above of why platinum prices are rising, it could be soon considered a catch-up trade to gold and silver, which have exploded over the course of this year thanks to dovish tilts by global central banks, an escalating trade war between the US and China, and macroeconomic risks pertaining to a worldwide synchronized slowdown.

The State Council is attempting to boost China’s domestic economy to weather an economic storm that started before the trade war but has undoubtedly been accelerated by trade disputes. It’s likely that a trade deal between the US and China isn’t expected until after 2020, that’s why China is implementing new measures to stimulate its economy.

Overall car sales in the country have declined for the 13th consecutive month in July. The government is hoping to trough the industry with the easing of restrictions.

Beijing is expected to roll out further stimulus measures to help boost its economy in the quarters ahead.

“China data weakness will likely be more visible in August and September, and policymakers will likely lean towards more intensive easing,” analysts at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note. “We expect policy loosening to resume in infrastructure investment, consumption stimulus, and monetary easing.”

Hard to say if platinum will erupt further, but it’s one precious metal that’s still trading on 2008 lows — something to watch for sure.

end

Blessings, ~ DK Dunagun Kaiser, founder ReluctantPreppers.com

Alasdair Macleod with Dunagun Kaiser

a must view..talks about Gold and Brexit

 

*Dennis Gartman…

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1494/  VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1474   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 4.68 POINTS OR 0.16%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 21.23 POINTS OR 0.08%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 245.44 POINTS OR 1.19%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.1039

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.27/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.35/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.83 and Brent: 59.97

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.70%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.95% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.11%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.65: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.61

3k Gold at $1525.70 silver at: 18.38   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble up 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.46

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.35 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9883 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0911 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.70%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.52% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.99%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8308..

Global Stocks Surge On Trade Optimism, Ending Turbulent August With A Sea Of Green

For the second day in a row, global markets and US equity futures are a sea of green with stocks pushing higher as trade headlines bathe algos in a sea of trade optimism ahead of month end, even as the dollar ascent continued offsetting the weaker Chinese yuan which was on track for its weakest month in 2-1/2 decades.

On Thursday, the mood lifted after President Donald Trump said some trade discussions were taking place with China on Thursday, with more talks scheduled, even though there has been no subsequent news that any discussions did in fact take place suggesting this was yet another “fake call” report meant to boost stocks. China’s commerce ministry also said a September round of meetings was being discussed by the two sides, but added it was important for Washington to cancel a tariff increase.

There was more of the same on Friday, with US equity futures red ahead of the European open, when China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said that US and China “are maintaining effective communication,” during a regular briefing Friday in Beijing. He added that “we hope the U.S. can demonstrate good faith and take real action to work in concert with China and find solutions together on the basis of mutual respect.”

 

That little snippet was enough for algos to ignite momentum and lift the US some 20 points higher…

… even ignoring hawkish commentary from the ECB’s Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger who said in an interview with MNI that “I don’t see the need for a re-start of the asset purchase program”, adding that QE “should only be used if you have a deflation risk and a deflation risk is nowhere to be seen now.”

As a result, the MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 0.3% but is on track for a near 3% decline in August – only the second month the benchmark has spent in the red this year. It was set to be the weakest August for the index since 2015.

Taking their cue from US equity future optimism, European stocks on Friday extended the previous session’s gains, with the European STOXX 600 index up 0.3% to trade at a fresh one-month high. “The trade war seesaw has certainly moved back in favor of riskier assets for now, with Trump and China supposedly holding a call yesterday,” said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid, although as noted above, there has yet to be confirmation of this. The DAX outperformed (+1%), with gains helped by a surge in German real estate firms which saw the country’s DAX index add 0.7%.

Earlier in the session, the picture was more mixed in Asia, where Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets dipped in and out of the red. Arrests or detentions of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong added to investor jitters, with the Chinese-ruled territory facing its first recession in a decade. Most Asian stocks did advance, however, led by energy producers and technology firms, after Beijing took a softer tone on possible trade talks with Washington. Almost all markets in the region were up, with South Korea and Taiwan leading gains. The Topix added 1.5%, buoyed by SoftBank Group, Sony and Takeda Pharmaceutical. Japan’s industrial output rebounded in July following the worst decline in more than a year. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.2%, dragged down by Shenzhen Goodix Technology and Industrial & Commercial Bank. China’s state-backed funds added positions in high-end manufacturing industries. India’s Sensex climbed 0.3%, with HDFC Bank and Housing Development Finance among the biggest boosts. Data due Friday is expected to show the nation’s gross domestic product growth slowed for a fifth straight quarter.

Also overnight, the global Times tweeted China is unswervingly tethered to its non-stop opening-up drive and reforming its economic system, even when the country is forced into a battle of tit-for-tat tariffs with the US on a massive, unprecedented magnitude.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong rejected the appeal against the protest ban on Saturday, while it was also reported that Hong Kong arrested prominent activists Joshua Wong, Andy Chan and Agnes Chow. Subsequent reports indicate that Wong and Chow have been released

Rates markets took a breather on Friday, at the end of a stellar month that has seen prices rally and borrowing costs push deeper and deeper into negative territory. U.S. Treasury yields nudged higher overnight, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury climbing to 1.5214% from a three-year low of 1.443% touched earlier this week. And despite the 2s10s curve briefly uninverted, the 10Y yield was once again below two-year yields at 1.538%.

Japanese yields popped higher early in the session, after the BOJ trimmed the amount of debt it would purchase in the 5-10 year bucket for the second time in 2 weeks, this time reducing the purchase amount from 450BN to 400BN.

Euro zone government bond yields were steady near record lows as data showed the bloc’s inflation remained low at 1.0% in August, well below the ECB’s target and bolstering expectations for European Central Bank stimulus in September. Bunds reversed early losses to trade little changed below 179.00, brushing off hawkish commentary and preliminary Eurozone inflation data that remains stuck below ECB’s target. German and US curves are marginally steeper however overall activity is muted in European hours. Italy bucks the spread-widening trend in Europe to tighten ~1bp against German 10y.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index was initially stronger for a fifth straight day although gains fizzled and it has since dipped into the red; SEK lags G-10 peers; ZAR leads in EM FX. The pound struggled for direction as lawmakers lost a bid to block Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to suspend parliament.  Elsewhere, the euro plunged to a one-month low against the dollar, as investors looked for aggressive easing by the European Central Bank and ignored doubts by some policymakers about the need for more stimulus.

Fresh trade optimism failed to inspire China’s yuan, which resumed its decline with spot yuan at 7.1462 against the dollar. The currency is on track for its weakest month since Beijing’s currency reform in 1994 after it broke through the key 7 to the dollar level earlier in August. Curiously, while both the yuan and US stocks got hit last Friday when Trump re-escalated the trade war, since then the CNH has remained deeply underwater, while the S&P has managed to recover all losses.

“The yuan move back to 7 and beyond has been a distinct possibility for months. It is clearly down due to the tariffs,” said Neil Mellor, senior FX strategist at BNY Mellon in London. “It does help them to some extent to absorb the tariff costs – it is one of the few options they have. The fiscal option is limited after years of excess, and the monetary stimulus has already been unprecedented this year.”

The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy bet on the Chinese economy, slipped towards a 10-year trough.

In commodities, WTI slipped 57 cents to $56.14 a barrel while Brent fell 30 cents to $60.78 a barrel. Iron ore futures rally about 5% to conclude a torrid month, nickel rallies on supply concerns. Spot gold came off recent highs to trade at $1,526 an ounce. Silver was at $18.37 an ounce after hitting its highest level in more than two years.

Investors were focused on a string of economic releases due over the weekend including China’s official manufacturing survey, which would provide a good gauge of the real impact from the Sino-U.S. trade war.

Economic data include personal income and spending, MNI Chicago business barometer

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 2,942.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 379.37
  • MXAP up 1.2% to 152.79
  • MXAPJ up 1.1% to 493.71
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 20,704.37
  • Topix up 1.5% to 1,511.86
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.08% to 25,724.73
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,886.24
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 37,208.51
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.5% to 6,604.22
  • Kospi up 1.8% to 1,967.79
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to -0.697%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1042
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $60.78/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 6.0 bps to 0.642%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.112%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $60.78/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,524.85
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 98.55

Top Headline News from Bloomberg

  • European Central Bank policy makers wary of ever-more monetary stimulus have fired the first warning shots two weeks before they meet to discuss bolstering the economy
  • A Scottish judge refused to block Boris Johnson’s plan to suspend Parliament, dealing a blow to lawmakers who argued that there isn’t enough time to thwart a no-deal Brexit; Johnson’s Brexit team will meet with EU officials at least twice a week in September as he seeks to break the current impasse and ward off a rebellion in his own party
  • President Donald Trump said Thursday that the U.S. and China are scheduled to have a conversation about trade today without giving details. His comments followed signs from China that it wouldn’t immediately retaliate against the latest U.S. tariff increase
  • Hong Kong police arrested prominent opposition figures including Joshua Wong a day after banning a mass protest planned for this weekend as authorities seek to quell pro- democracy demonstrations that have raged for nearly three months; China rejected HK’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s plan to appease protesters, Reuters reported on Friday
  • Argentina’s bonds extended declines as S&P Global Ratings cut the South American nation’s foreign- and local-currency credit ratings to “selective default” after it said it would delay payments on as much as $101 billion of debt.

Asian equity markets headed into month-end higher across the board after the tumultuous US-China trade saga took a positive turn following comments from Mofcom spurred that hopes regarding talks in September and indicated that China doesn’t plan to immediately retaliate against President Trump’s latest tariff hikes. ASX 200 (+1.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) advanced from the open with notable strength seen in Australia’s trade-sensitive sectors and as earnings continued to trickle in, while Tokyo trade was buoyant with focus on a slew of mixed data in which Industrial Production significantly topped estimates and amid reports that Japan permitted the first exports of hydrogen fluoride to South Korea since curbs were enacted. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were underpinned by the trade hopes after Mofcom stated that both sides are discussing the September talks and that the sides have been in touch, while it also suggested that China wants to settle the dispute calmly and avoid further escalation. Furthermore, earnings have also been a driving force with firm gains in China’s largest bank ICBC, as well as oil majors CNOOC and PetroChina following their results, although upside in the broader market was contained given the looming additional tariffs and after continued PBoC inaction resulted to a consecutive weekly net liquidity drain. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower with safe-haven demand sapped by the positive risk tone and after the BoJ reduced its purchases in 5yr-10yr JGBs to JPY 400bln from JPY 450bln for today’s Rinban operation.

Top Asian News

  • China Had Rejected Lam Plan to Appease H.K. Protesters: Reuters
  • BOJ Paves Way to Buy Fewer Bonds in September as Yields Slide
  • China, U.S. Maintaining Effective Trade Communication: Geng
  • Samsung Heir’s Retrial Spotlights Moon’s Coddling of Korea Inc.

Major European indices are firmer this morning [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%] as markets look to round a volatile week and month off on a positive tone, ahead of next month’s Central Bank infused slate. European bourses positivity follows on from the relatively strong performance seen in the Asia-Pac session, as sentiment received a boost on US-China updates; although, trade newsflow has been light in European hours. In terms of sectors the STXX Housing Sector (+2.2%) is outperforming on the back of reports that the rent freeze in Berlin may not be as strict as was initially feared/reported. Reports which have led to Deutsche Wohnen (+12.9%) topping the Stoxx 600, with Vonovia (+5.8%) not far behind. Elsewhere, other notable movers include Daimler (+2.3%) after being upgraded to buy at Kepler Chevreux, which has helped the auto sector more broadly (+1.7%). Separately, Deutsche Bank (+0.1%) are lagging the DAX (+0.6%) after reports that the Co. are examining the closure of local branches and are likely to begin an equity derivatives book auction in September. More broadly, the Banking index (+0.7%) remains in positive territory but is towards the bottom of the index pile, which may be partially explained by S&P downgrading Argentina’s credit rating to ‘Selective Default’ from ‘B-‘ after the country stated it would be delaying debt payments.

Top European News

  • EU Concerned on U.K. Democracy After ‘Strange’ Parliament Move
  • Merkel Might Be in Real Trouble If German Populists Win Sunday
  • Equinor Signals Potential Early Start for Oil Giant Sverdrup

In FX, the Euro is edging closer to ytd lows vs the Dollar at 1.1027 following more dire German data (retail sales), and despite ECB’s Lautenschlaeger adding her hawkish views to those of Knot and Weidmann ahead of September’s policy meeting. Month end rebalancing flows are not providing traction/support this time as light Usd sales are touted against all G10s bar the Euro, while even the usual RHS flows/orders in Eur/Gbp seem to be conspicuously absent or relatively small given that the cross remains capped ahead of 0.9100 and the Pound is hardly firm in its own right. In terms of fundamentals, the ECB is still widely expected to deliver some form of stimulus next month even if not the big bazooka favoured by Rehn and other doves perhaps. However, hefty option expiry interest at 1.1050 (1.9 bn) could be cushioning Eur/Usd vs smaller size at the 1.1000 strike (1 bn), albeit amply backed up by barrier defences.

  • USD – Notwithstanding the mostly bearish portfolio models noted above, the Greenback is only really softer vs the Yen in major markets, and the DXY has probed above resistance ahead of the 2019 peak, though remains some way below at 98.609 vs 98.932. Looming US data/surveys could give the index further impetus, but direction looks more contingent on broader risk sentiment and US-China trade developments with repercussions for Treasury yields and the curve alongside the Euro’s ability to evade further weakness.
  • JPY – Bucking the overall trend, but marginally the Yen is holding a tight line around 106.50 vs the Buck following a raft of mixed Japanese data overnight and with plenty flanking the headline pair either side of the range. 1.4 bn expiries reside between 106.00-15 and the 21 DMA is only a fraction above at 106.17, while exporter supply is said to be layered from 106.70 right up to and through 107.00 at 107.10.
  • CHF – In contrast to its fellow safe-haven, the Franc has retreated towards 0.9900 vs the Dollar and below 1.0900 against the Euro even though Switzerland’s KOF index was better than expected, and it appears evident that latest SNB warnings about action to curb excessive Chf demand are being heeded.
  • GBP/CAD/NZD/AUD – All narrowly mixed against the Greenback, with Cable deriving some traction above 1.2150 and the 21 DMA (1.2154) to retest offers/resistance around 1.2200, while the Loonie continues to straddle 1.3300, but could finally break out of its shackles if Canadian GDP is outside consensus. Elsewhere, the Kiwi and Aussie are still top heavy on a mixture of dovish RBNZ/RBA and downbeat economic indicators not to mention negative input from RBA’s Debelle, with Aud/Usd only just hovering above 0.6700 and Nzd/Usd struggling to keep tabs on 0.6300.
  • SEK/NOK – The Scandi Crowns are mixed vs the Euro, but both looking technically weak as the crosses trade above 10.8000 and 10.0000 respectively. However, the Sek is underperforming ahead of next week’s Riksbank policy meeting that could culminate in a dovish tweak to forward guidance via the timing of the likely next rate hike and/or a flatter repo path.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are in negative in territory and failing to benefit from the strong performance in stocks thus far; with WTI retreating somewhat from yesterday’s weekly high of USD 56.86/bbl and Brent painting a similar picture. In terms of catalysts there have been no fundamental updates for the complex, though its worth nothing that today is Brent’s Oct’19 future expiry which, alongside month-end flows, may be playing a role in today’s price action. Turning to metals, where spot gold has slipped somewhat on the strength in stocks and the USD’s strength this morning; as such the yellow metal looks set to finish the week just a few dollars away from its Monday open at USD 1527/oz. Separately, UBS note that iron ore prices have had a very volatile H1, and the metal is now being afflicted by slower production and supply lifts which may push it below the USD 80.0/t mark.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%; Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%; PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6%;
  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 47.5, prior 44.4
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 92.3, prior 92.1; Current Conditions, prior 107.4; Expectations, prior 82.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

elcome to the last business day of August and with it the last of the meteorological Summer (or Winter depending on where you’re reading this). Since I’ve got back from holiday it’s been dark writing the EMR again which is a little depressing! Roll on next April. We’ll do our usual full performance review on Monday but August has been a trying month for markets. However the reality is that the full range for the S&P 500 was put in place in the first 5 days of the month and although we’ve got to the bottom of that range a couple of times since we haven’t broken through and markets have bounced back off the ropes three times this month now.

Indeed that’s what’s happened this week as we’ve now had three out of four strong days since Monday including a +1.27% gain yesterday meaning that the S&P 500 is back above last Friday’s closing level which is impressive given that all the talk over the weekend was about how bad Monday’s open would be after renewed trade escalations. The trade-war seesaw has certainly moved back in favour of riskier assets for now, with Trump and China supposedly holding a call yesterday, at least according to Trump earlier in the day. However, neither side had confirmed this as we go to print. Meanwhile, risk assets were already getting a boost from the news that China doesn’t intend to immediately retaliate on tariffs, following comments out of the Ministry of Commerce just as European markets were opening. The NASDAQ (+1.48%) and DOW (+1.25%) also closed higher along with the STOXX 600 (+1.04%) as cyclical sectors led the advance. After lagging earlier this week, large-cap tech stocks outperformed, with the NYFANG index +2.15% higher.

Similarly, high yield credit spreads were also -5.5bps tighter in Europe and -4.5bps tighter in the US. As for bonds, in Europe yields ebbed and flowed as we heard comments from the ECB (more on that shortly) before bonds eventually closed weaker. Bunds and OATs both ended +2.1bps higher, while BTPs rallied another -6.1bps which saw them close below 1% for the first time ever at 0.984% while the spread to Bunds compressed to 167.6bps. Across the pond 10-year Treasuries ended +1.2bps higher (up a further +2bps this morning), though 30-year yields fell -1.2bps (but are back up +1.4bps in Asia) after press reporting (Bloomberg) suggested that the Treasury Borrowing Advisory will argue against ultra-long bonds. The 2s10s yield curve flattened another -0.8bps to -3.5bps (at -2.1bps this morning) after nearly getting back to flat as Europe went home.

Just on those ECB comments, it’s significant that these were the first public comments from Lagarde on monetary policy since being given the ECB job, which she’ll take up in November. That was enough of a reason for the market to react (albeit modestly), however the actual substance was not particularly ground-breaking. Lagarde said that the ECB hasn’t hit the lower bound on interest rates and that the latest decisions of the ECB including forward guidance “are in my view correctly aimed at preserving the very accommodative financing conditions for firms and households”. The comments felt almost Draghi-esque and hinted at continuity more than anything else, rather than suggesting any preconceived conclusions. That said, it does seem like Lagarde is likely to be at least marginally more sensitive to the adverse side-effects of negative interest rates, saying “it is clear that low rates have implications for the banking sector.”

Later in the day we also heard from the ECB’s Knot. The initial headline that popped up quoted Knot as saying that “there is no need to resume QE right now”. Knot also said that “market expectations are overdone” and that “I would be reluctant to back tiering for negative rates”. Yields and the euro spiked on the news however it’s worth noting that Knot is already one of the more hawkish council members but importantly not a member of the executive board, commentary from which will ultimately be more important. That being said recent comments from the ECB do suggest a wide range of views and an elevated level of uncertainty around what policy package will be unveiled next month.

This morning in Asia markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+1.30%), Hang Seng (+0.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.23%) and Kospi (+1.87%) all up. As for FX, all G-10 currencies are trading weak this morning (c. -0.1% – -0.2%) while, the onshore Chinese yuan is trading down -0.11% at 7.1521. The South Korean won is trading up +0.68% as the country’s central bank shied away from cutting rates at today’s monetary policy meeting. Elsewhere, Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.20%. In terms of overnight data releases, we saw Japan’s July retail sales come in at -2.0% yoy (vs. -0.7% yoy expected) while preliminary July industrial production came in at +0.7% yoy (vs. -0.6% yoy expected). In other news, the BoJ reduced purchases of bonds in the key 5-10 year maturity zone for a second time this month as the country’s benchmark yield dropped to near record lows. The central bank offered to buy JPY 400bn of 5-10 year bonds today (vs. JPY 450bn at its previous regular operation). 10Y JGB yields rose after this and are currently up +1.4bps to -0.283%.

Meanwhile, here in the UK, Bloomberg reported overnight that PM Johnson’s envoy, David Frost, has asked the EU to intensify Brexit talks at a meeting with European Commission officials in Brussels on Wednesday. The report went on to add that David Frost will meet with EU officials at least twice a week in September to break the Brexit impasse.

In other news, the data in the US yesterday included the second revision to Q2 GDP however there were no great surprises with growth revised down a tenth as expected to +2.0% yoy. The details did show a significant upgrade to consumption of four-tenths to +4.7% however core PCE was revised down a tenth to +1.7%. It’s worth noting that we’ll get the July PCE data today where the consensus expects a +0.2% mom reading. All in all though, not much to change Fed expectations from the latest data. As a side point it’s worth also noting that corporate profits made a big jump in Q2 having dropped in Q1, with profits up +2.7% yoy. These have historically led the trend in GDP, so a modest positive.

As far as the rest of the data was concerned, the advance goods trade deficit in July narrowed to $72.3bn and a bit more than expected, while wholesale inventories climbed +0.2% mom as expected last month. Initial jobless claims printed at 215k and further indicate the resilience of the labour market, while pending home sales in July fell -2.5% mom.

In Europe the main talking point from the data was a soft German inflation print. Indeed CPI printed at -0.1% mom in August which lowered the annual rate to +1.0% yoy and the lowest since November 2016. The details showed that the core was weak which raises downside risks to the Euro Area core reading today. Elsewhere, in France Q2 GDP was revised up a tenth to +0.3% qoq.

To the day ahead now, where this morning the main focus will be on the August CPI reports for the Euro Area, France and Italy. We’ll also get the final revisions to Q2 GDP in Italy and July money and credit aggregates data in the UK. Inflation data should be the main focus in the US too with the July PCE report and personal income and spending numbers. We’ll also get the August Chicago PMI number and final August University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey revisions. Away from that, the ECB’s Rehn speaks in Finland this morning

 

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.68 POINTS OR 0.16%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 21.23 POINTS OR 0.08%   /The Nikkei closed UP 245.44 POINTS OR 1.19%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.40%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1494 /Oil DOWN TO 55.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.97 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1494 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1473 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Kyle Bass and others feel that Hong Kong is prepared for a mainland invasion

(zerohedge)

Clues That China’s “Garrison Rotation” In Hong Kong Is Preparation For Mainland Invasion

Some call a one-way troop movement a “rotation”. I tend to call them “buildups” or simply an “invastion”  — writes Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass. While Chinese military officials and state media are still claiming ‘nothing to see here’asfresh People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops and armored vehicles have continued to pour into Hong King since early Thursday morning, the influx could mark the early phase of a looming major military crackdown from Beijing feared by many.

As we reported earlier, while the People’s Daily and other state media say it’s part of a routine and planned 22nd annual rotation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) garrison in Hong Kong — a normally significant logistical feat given PLA troops at the garrison number between 8,000 and 10,000 troops on either side of the border — there areclear alarming signs Chinese forces are prepping specifically for riot control and crowd suppression operations.

Further suggesting the timing is not just fortuitous, the major “troop rotation” is happening a mere days before anti-Beijing protesters plan to hold a large march focused on calling for “full democracy” for the semi-autonomous city.

Some signs of what’s about to come…

* * *

What’s not “routine” is that the PLA appears to be sending in gear and vehicles equipped for anti-riot operations.

Kyle Bass

@Jkylebass

Xinhua’s photos showed that the PLA garrison had changed its armoured vehicles, of which it has about 50,from Type 092, the military version,to WJ-03B, the model used by armed police. The changes suggest the garrison is ready for anti-riot missions @SariArhoHavren https://twitter.com/sariarhohavren/status/1167055249187790849 

Sari Arho Havrén@SariArhoHavren

Nothing to see in Hong Kong. Cute how I have been educated that there’s PLA troops in HK and what troops rotation means. What can I do but love it. https://twitter.com/carlzha/status/1167019456075165697 

Jon Williams

@WilliamsJon

Chinese troops cross border into . Beijing insists “routine” rotation of PLA forces.

Embedded video

State media footage appears to show WJ-03B 6X6 anti-riot Wheeled Armored Vehicles (a variant or upgrade of the WZ901 armored vehicle) moving into Hong Kong.

These vehicles are specifically designed for People’s Armed Police (PAP) anti-rioting and internal security missions, precisely what one would expect if the mainland were prepping operations to crackdown on HK democracy protests.

No mere ordinary or “routine” troop transport vehicles among the many pouring in as part of the turnover in HK garrison troops.

Via WeaponsSystems.net: The WJ-03B is a police version of the WZ551A chassis that is primarily meant for riot control. It has vision blocks instead of gun ports and a fully armored one man turret with 12.7mm machine gun. On the turret there are several types of gas grenade launchers. The WJ-03B is not amphibious.

Chinese-made armored military vehicles specifically modified as variants for urban riot control are evident in Thursday’s footage and photos.

W. B. Yeats@WBYeats1865

Some real observation and useful information here.

I believe most Hong Kongers missed this point. I highly recommend the Hong Kongers to know more about the WJ-03B amoured vehicle.

Thank you Mr. Bass.https://www.armyrecognition.com/chinese_china_army_wheeled_armoured_vehicle_uk/wj-03b_wz901_anti-riot_wheeled_armoured_vehicle_data_sheet_specifications_information_description_uk.html 

WJ-03B WZ901 anti-riot wheeled armoured vehicle data sheet specifications information description UK

WJ-03B WZ901 anti-riot wheeled armoured vehicle data sheet specifications information description intelligence pictures photos images PLA China Chinese army identification

armyrecognition.com

And further China has been staging nearby drills in urban crowd control and anti-riot control tactics.

Carl Zha@CarlZha

Anti-riot drill by People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen Stadium across the border from Hong Kong?

Embedded video

This follows early this month the PLA releasing a video that featured an emergency response “drill” involving Chinese troops taking positions around an mock-up urban environment. The promo video was unveiled at an event honoring the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) Hong Kong garrison.

The footage was described as “a promotional video showing various activities and stating that troops stationed in the city were able to protect its long-term stability.”

The recently produced PLA “riot control” video, which The Washington Post described as showing soldiers practicing shooting protesters:

One Hong Kong lawmaker, Dennis Kwok of the Civic party said at the very least the large-scale troop movements are political posturing.

“I believe this is a deliberate posture on the part of the PLA to tell or warn the Hong Kong people that it may be deployed,” Kwok told public broadcaster RTHK, according to The Guardian.

“As I said time and again, the use of troops in Hong Kong will be the end of Hong Kong, and I would warn against any such move on the part of the central people’s government,” he said.

* * *

If the internet goes dark, it will be a strong final sign a mainland military crackdown is underway, as The Guardian reports:

As concerns about a possible crackdown intensify in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Internet Service Providers Association said on Wednesday it was troubled by reports that the local government might issue an executive order to block selective websites or applications.

It said such an order would be the “end of the open Internet of Hong Kong” and “permanently deter international businesses from positing their businesses and investments in Hong Kong”.

The group also said it would be an ineffective move as it “would not deter nor stop determined users from accessing their desired services” through a virtual private network (VPN).

Hong Kong legislator Charles Mok previously warned the government has lately considered passing emergency regulation allowing it to shutdown the internet  as has been done during prior unrest on the mainland.

Charles Mok 莫乃光

@charlesmok

“Internet shutdown” will truly be the darkest day for Hong Kong: Emergency Regulations Ordinance grants the Chief Executive sweeping powers to bypass the legislature and control everything inc telecommunications and may shutdown the Internet.

Hong Kong will die!

View image on Twitter
end
China’s crackdown escalates with multiple arrests
(zerohedge)

China Crackdown Escalates: Multiple Hong Kong Protest Leaders Arrested

Summary: At least three of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protest leaders have been arrested tonight: Joshua Wong, Andy Chan, and Agnes Chow.

CNBC’s Eunice Yoon notes that the arrests are being described on Chinese media as a crackdown on “the activists who create chaos in Hong Kong.”

*  *  *

Update (2205ET):  Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Agnes Chow has been arrestedaccording to her Demosisto party colleague Jeffrey Ngo.

Chow was arrested at her home in Tai Po on Friday morning.

*  *  *

Update (2145ET): Just minutes after the arrest of Joshua Wong (as we detailed below), Andy Chan, the leader of the banned pro-independence Hong Kong National Party, has reportedly been detained whilst trying to board a flight to Japan.

A police spokesperson told HKFP that Chan was arrested on suspicion of rioting and assaulting a police officer. The Organized Crime And Triad Bureau are investigating.

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong has been arrested ahead of this weekend’s planned protests throughout the city, according to the Hong Kong Free Press.

According to his colleague, Nathan Law, Wong was forced into a private vehicle at 7:30 a.m. on the street and escorted to the Wan Chai police headquarters. According to Law, Wong is being held on three yet-unknown charges, and is being represented by attorneys.

Demosistō 香港眾志

@demosisto

BREAKING: Our secretary-general @joshuawongcf was just arrested this morning at roughly 7:30, when he was walking to the South Horizons MTR station. He was forcefully pushed into a private minivan on the street in broad daylight. Our lawyers following the case now.

The arrest of Wong – who was released from prison on June 17 after serving a five-week sentence related to the 2014 pro-democracy Umbrella Movement – comes hours after pro-independence leader Andy Chan was arrested at the airport.

Wong was the face of those 2014 protests which paralyzed parts of Hong Kong for 79 days.

The Hong Kong protests began in mid-June in response to a controversial extradition bill that would have allowed China to transport suspects to the mainland for trial in Communist Party-controlled courts, according to US News.

Much like the Yellow Vest movement in France, the initial grievance has evolved into a broad anti-government movement every weekend since it began. In early June, 1.3 million residents took to the streets. 

While the protests have been largely peaceful, each weekend has been marked with clashes between a more violent subset of protesters and Hong Kong riot police – who have deployed tear gas, batons, water canons and other crowd-control measures.

Beijing’s patience, meanwhile, may be running out – as Chinese troops and armored trucks were seen entering Hong Kong in the “wee hours of Thursday” under the pretext of a “planned garrison rotation.”

People’s Daily, China

@PDChina

The Garrison of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army conducted the 22nd rotation of its members in the wee hours of Thursday since it began garrisoning Hong Kong in 1997.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Needless to say, it will be interesting to see how this weekend’s protests go now that key organizers have been arrested and the threat of direct – and possibly deadly Chinese intervention looms.

end

We have been telling you on the ebola pig virus and postulated that pork prices would soon skyrocket. We were right  China is now reeling as pork prices explode

(zerohedge)

“I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This”: China Reels As Pork Prices Explode To Record Levels

One could see it coming from a mile away, but still the breakout in Chinese pork prices as a result of the country’s “pig ebola” outbreak and the ongoing trade war with the US, is a sight to behold.

As the chart below shows, pork prices in China have soared to record highs in the past two weeks, adding pressure on a government trying to contain food-price inflation during the trade war with the U.S., even as the country’s Producer Price index posted its first negative print in 3 years, putting China in a bind: contain soaring food inflation, or stimulate the economy and risk an angry public backlash (something we discussed extensively two weeks ago).

Prices of China’s favorite protein – used in dishes such as lunchtime dumplings and spicy mapo tofu — have surged 18% in China in just two weeks, since the week ended Aug. 9 and are up more than 50% in the past year. The average price of pork, excluding offal, in the week ended Aug. 23 was 31.77 yuan a kilogram ($2.02 a pound), according to data from China’s Ministry of Commerce.

 

The cause for the price surge is well-known: African swine fever, which has been raging across China, and Asia, has decimated pork supplies. China’s pig herd had fallen 32% on year in July, according to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Some analysts expect 2019 production could fall as much as 50% by the time the “pig ebola” is contained.

 

Breakouts of African Swine Fever in 2019

Speaking to the WSJ, Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia commodity analyst, at INTL FCStone in Shanghai said “it’s hard to know where prices are going to go. We’re in uncharted territory.” He said his own grocery bills have increased by 35% for pork belly since November and 32% for pork chops since January.

As we reported earlier in August, the surge in pork prices and increases in the cost of vegetables were already the main driver of a 2.8% rise in the CPI in July, the fastest pace in 18 months, even as PPI dipped negative.

The 27% surge in pork prices – a core component of the Chinese CPI basket – lifted the headline inflation index by 0.59%.  It could not have come at a worse time: due to the trade war between the US and China, Beijing’s tariffs on U.S. pork have increased prices of American meat.

Traditionally, Chinese people typically eat far more pork than other meat; in fact China is the single biggest consumer of pork in the world. However, a customer at a wholesale market in Beijing told the WSJ her family was now eating more chicken than pork. Indeed, as pork prices rise to levels that are prohibitively high for many, consumers are changing their buying habits, pushing up prices for other meat. Chicken breast is about 20%  more expensive than a year ago, while duck breast has nearly tripled in price to 14,600 yuan (US$2,125) a tonne, making duck farmers into overnight millionaires.

Pork prices are likely to remain elevated for some time, said Betty Wang, a senior economist at ANZ. She said farmers have culled so many pigs that it would take a while for supplies to build up again. “If people feel that food inflation is going up, it may spur policy actions,”she added, although it wasn’t clear just how Beijing can find a quick and easy substitute to domestic farms.

Until things normalize, Beijing has taken an idea from the Trump administration: outside the wholesale market, red banners advertised government subsidies for pork slaughterhouses. The government has been trying to push farms and slaughterhouses to increase production to relieve pressure on prices, but herd numbers continue to fall.

“I’ve never seen anything like this,” said Xiao Tong, a vendor who has been selling pork for nearly 20 years in Beijing. “Every day the price rises more.” Prices are so high that not only retail customers, but businesses can no longer afford to buy pork: she said even her longtime clients, such as local restaurants and construction companies, are trimming purchases.

Making matters worse, another major spike in prices is coming once short-term inventories are depleted. Chenjun Pan, a senior analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong, said storage levels of frozen pork seem to have also fallen in recent months.

Meanwhile, China’s pork imports have jumped more than 60% in the second quarter, but foreign supplies have been constrained or are more expensive, especially with Chinese tariffs on US products. Beijing levied new tariffs totaling 50% on pork from the U.S. last year and in June suspended pork imports from Canada.

Pork prices have been a concern for Beijing  because of its importance in the local diet.  Chinese consumers eat an average of about 67 pounds a person each year, while per-capita consumption in the U.S. is around 51 pounds a year, according to data from the OECD.

One final tangent: roughly one year ago, there was a “modest proposal” floated in the darker corners of the internet, that if Trump wanted to win the trade war with Beijing and spark a social revolt, all he had to do was spark a deadly epidemic affecting China’s preferred food source. One wonders if said proposal did not eventually make its way to the oval office…

end

China/USA

Seems that China shut out the USA for lobster as their exports to China crashed by 80%. No doubt that the big winner would be Canada.

(zerohedge)

US Lobster Exports To China Crash 80%

Earlier this month, we reported how several companies in Maine saw a massive drop in lobster exports due to President Trump’s escalating trade war with China. Now data from the US federal government confirms a seafood crisis is developing. 

China has been the top consumer of American lobster for quite some time, especially ones from Maine. But that all changed last summer when President Trump slapped China with tariffs, which forced Beijing to retaliate with tariffs on agriculture products, including seafood. 

And just like that, the American lobster industry was ultimately shutout of China. This led to an enormous boon for Canadian fisherman.

In the last 8 to 12 months, airfreight volumes have been ticking up in Halifax, Nova Scotia, and Moncton, and New Brunswick, partly due to Canadain fisherman taking over the US’ market share into China.

The loss of business has been devastating for Maine’s mom-and-pop fisherman shops who are now laying off workers. 

 

 

We reported that Vice President of sales and marketing at Maine Coast, Sheila Adams, said her company saw a 20% plunge in business activity in a matter of days last July after China retaliated against US tariffs on Chinese goods by raising duties on US food and agricultural exports, which included live lobsters.

“Essentially what’s happened is about 80% of our sales into mainland China have gone away,” she said.

“And that’s purely because our product is simply just too expensive compared to the Canadian because of the additional 25% tariff that was levied.”

The Lobster Co., of Arundel, Maine, owned by Stephanie Nadeau, said he laid off half of his workers this year because of the trade war. He said it’s wrong for the Trump administration to pick winners and losers.

“They picked winners, and they picked losers, and they picked me a loser,” Nadeau said. “There is no market that’s going to replace China.”

And let’s not forget, when the government picks winners and losers in an economy, it’s called socialism and tends to backfire, as seen in Maine.

The trade data on lobster exports is absolutely shocking.

Federal trade data showed US exports of lobster to China totaled about 2.2 million pounds this year through June. US exports were nearly 12 million pounds for the same period last year, a drop of more than 80% YoY.

In Canada, lobster exports to China through June were 33 million pounds, which is almost as much as all of 2018.

The value of Canada’s lobster exports was $200 million through June and has almost trumped all of last year’s total of $223 million.

The value of America’s lobster exports through June was $19 million, more than $70 million behind where they were through June 2018.

Marianne LaCroix, who directs the Maine Lobster Marketing Collaborative, said the American lobster industry is looking to open up new domestic and international sales channels to make up for the loss of China.

“China is so large that you have to look at a number of new markets to replace that business,” LaCroix said.

‘Tariffs Hurt the Heartland’, an alliance of trade associations and agriculture commodity groups, said tariffs cost US firms $3.4 billion in June alone.

end
China rejects Lam’s proposal to appease the protesters.  The leaders who were arrested have been released and the march scheduled for tomorrow has been cancelled
(zerohedge)

China Rejected Secret Hong Kong Proposal To Appease Protesters

Beijing’s role in directing the Hong Kong government throughout the extradition bill protests has been widely assumed, and following the arrest of three protest leaders Friday morning (local time), as well as the cancellation of Saturday’s march, the long-anticipated crackdown (complete with a ‘rotation’ of PLA forces) appears to have finally started.

But in case there was any doubt left in your mind, Reuters published a lengthy report Friday detailing the extent to which the Chinese Communist Party has directed the Hong Kong government’s response to the protests.

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass noted on twitter that the troop “rotation” in Hong Kong looks more like an “invasion.”

Fortunately for them, the detained protest leaders, a group that included Joshua Wong, the student protest leader who gained notoriety during the 2014 Umbrella movement, have been released.

Earlier this summer, Lam submitted a report to Beijing that analyzed the protesters demands and issued a finding: permanently withdrawing the extradition bill could help placate the people and end the protest movement.But Beijing was, unsurprisingly, firmly opposed to this, or meeting any of the protesters other demands.

The Chinese central government rejected Lam’s proposal to withdraw the extradition bill and ordered her not to yield to any of the protesters’ other demands at that time, three individuals with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

While it comes as no surprise that China would be unwilling to show any weakness in dealing with the HK protesters, the Reuters report for the first time offers “concrete evidence” of the degree to which the Communist Party is calling the shots in Hong Kong. Lam’s report was prepared for an Aug. 7 meeting in Shenzhen with the senior Chinese leadership intended to examine the feasibility of the protest movement’s demands, and how acceding to some of them might help restore order. Ultimately, the Chinese leadership decided not to take any action on the protesters’ demands, particularly when it comes to the withdrawal bill – which Lam has said is ‘dead’ but not completely ‘withdrawn’ – or investigations into excessive use of force by police. Instead, they ratcheted up their rhetoric about foreign interference.

Lam’s report had been submitted to the Central Co-ordination Group for Hong Kong and Macau Affairs, a group led by the Politburo Standing Committee.

“They said no” to all five demands, said the source. “The situation is far more complicated than most people realize.”

As Reuters pointed out, the extent of Beijing’s influence “strikes at the heart of Hong Kong’s ‘one country, two systems’ government, which promised the city a high degree of autonomy,” particularly at a time when the former British colony is facing its most serious political crisis since it was returned to China in 1997.

Senior pro-Beijing politician Ip Kwok-him, a member of Hong Kong’s ruling executive council, told Reuters that “if the central government won’t allow something, you can’t do it.”

A senior businessman who attended the Shenzhen meeting and has met with Lam recently said “her hands are tied” and Beijing wouldn’t let her withdraw the bill. At the meeting, Zhang Xiaoming, the head of the HKMAO, said in public remarks that if the unrest persisted, the central government would intervene. Officials have compared the protests to “terrorism.”

With the Oct 1, 70th anniversary of the CCP’s founding just one month away, that point appears to be drawing ever-nearer.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Our resident expert on the Brexit, Mish Shedlock states that the Boris Johnson move was foolproff

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Boris Johnson’s Deviously Clever Brexit Strategy Unfolds

end

And now a Scottish judge rejects the bid to stop Bo.Jo from suspending parliament ahead of Brexit day

(zerohedge)

Scottish Judge Rejects Bid To Stop Boris Johnson From Suspending Parliament Ahead Of Brexit Day

One attempt to stop UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson from ‘proroguing’ – or suspending – Parliament for five weeks in September and October to help prevent lawmakers from thwarting his plan to take the UK out of the EU with or without a deal has itself been foiled by a top court in Scotland, which on Friday rejected a request to stop the prime minister’s plan, CNN reports.

The action was brought by a cross-party group of 70 lawmakers opposed to a ‘no deal’ exit who were seeking an injunction against the attempt to prorogue Parliament until a final decision had been reached, and is one of three legal challenges to Johnson’s plan to circumvent any challenges from Parliament.

However, the ruling shouldn’t be characterized as a defeat for Johnson. The judge in the case, Lord Raymond Doherty, ruled only that there is no need for an immediate order to block the plan, while moving forward a full decision on the matter until Thursday.

“I’m not satisfied that it has been demonstrated that there’s a need for an interim suspension or an interim interdict to be granted at this stage,” Doherty said, according to PA.

The suspension of Parliament is due to start Sept. 12, so opposing lawmakers have until then to secure a favorable ruling. And there are two other legal challenges currently moving forward. Next week, Gina Miller’s challenge will be heard on Sept. 5 – she will be joined in her campaign by former PM John Major, according to a tweet.

Gina Miller@thatginamiller

Court hearing re @BorisJohnson proroguing Parliament will be heard next Thursday 5th September. I will be adjoined by Sir John Major.

One legal expert, Good Law Project Director Jolyon Maugham said Friday’s decision “just kicks the can a few days down the road.”

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage, founder of the Brexit Party and considered by some to be the ‘godfather’ of Brexit, complained about the ‘remainer sabotage’ on Twitter following the court cases.

Nigel Farage

@Nigel_Farage

Endless Remainer sabotage, we really do need to be free. https://twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/1167373350664069120 

James Cook

@BBCJamesCook

BREAKING The prime minister Boris Johnson has been urged to provide an affidavit — a sworn statement on oath — about why he is suspending parliament. Joanna Cherry of the SNP, who is pursuing the case, tells me the Court of Session could, if the judge wishes, compel him to do so.

That tweet was in response to petitioners in the Scottish court demanding that Johnson provide an affidavit explaining why he wants to suspend parliament, something that could open him up to cross examination, according to the FT.

With a full hearing now due before Scotland’s Court of Session next Tuesday and Gina Miller and John Major’s case set to be heard next Thursday, attention will now turn to Belfast’s High Court, which will hear another challenge later on Friday.

The legal challenges come as Johnson is trying to step up talks with the EU about possible modifications to the withdrawal agreement.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran

Looks like Iran is having their problems: their new space launch ends in explosion

(zerohedge)

Iran Space Launch Ends In Explosion, Satellite Photos Reveal

A much anticipated Iranian satellite launch, long criticized by the US as an alleged violation of a UN Security Council resolution banning ballistic missiles with nuclear capabilities, appears to have failed.

Satellite images show the aftermath of an apparent explosion at the Imam Khomeini Space Center in Iran’s Semnan province, southeast of Iran’s capital, as the rocket and satellite were scheduled to launch, which would constitute the Islamic Republic’s third failed launch this year.

The AP reports that “satellite images by Planet Labs Inc. showed a black plume of smoke rising above a launch pad there, with what appeared to be the charred remains of a rocket and its launch stand.”

 

Professional satellite imaging analysts said the photos suggest either an explosion during ignition or possibly a very brief lift-off before crashing back down to the pad.

Iranian officials and state media made no immediate comment or acknowledgement in the wake of the explosion marking an apparent failed launch.

Christoph Koettl

@ckoettl

Multiple satellites capture failed satellite launch at Imam Khomeini Spaceport. Images via @maxar and @planetlabs (analysis by @DaveSchmerler @MIIS)

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

CNN cited a US official familiar with an intelligence assessment of the matter as saying the US believes the accident most likely occurred during fueling operations.

Iranian state media had previously described the satellite prepped for launch, the Nahid-1, as a telecommunication satellite which was to conduct a low orbit around the Earth for two-and-a-half months.

 

Source: Planet Labs Inc. via Middlebury Institute of International Studies, via NPR

Given the US scrutiny and prior condemnations of Iran’s satellite launch and space ambitions, the incident is likely to prove a deep embarrassment for Tehran officials and the fledgling program; however, most countries satellite programs were achieved by lengthy trial and error.

end

 

Iran/USA

Interesting instead of bombing Iran, Trump ordered the hacking of Iran’s paramilitary force

(zerohedge)

US Military Secretly Hacked Iran’s Paramilitary Force In June Cyberstrike

Hours after Iran shot down a US surveillance drone, American military hackers launched a cyberattack against a database used by the Islamic Republic to target oil tankers and shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf, according to the Washington Post, citing US officials.

The strike was President Trump’s alternative to a recommended military airstrike, the Iranian deaths from which which would not be “proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone.”

Iran claims the drone flew into its airspace, while the US claims it was in international airspace.

 

US Cyber Command did not address the operation, telling the Post “As a matter of policy and for operational security, we do not discuss cyberspace operations, intelligence, or planning.”

According to the report, the cyberstrike had been in the works for weeks, “if not months,” after Iran’s suspected attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman in early June.

Officials also told the Post that the cyber response shows how the Pentagon is “expanding its repertoire of options to integrate cyber into military plan,” and how Cybercom – which coordinated the strike with US Central Command, ” is able to support regional commanders to achieve strategic aims — in this case to preserve freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.”

The drone downing and retaliatory computer attack reflect how increasingly hostilities are playing out below the threshold of use of force, in what is often called the “gray zone.”

The cyberstrike was designed to be debilitating — Iran is still trying to restore data — but proportionate and not so provocative as to result in escalation, officials said. –Washington Post

“When you’re in this realm there’s always the chance for miscalculation,” said one US official, adding “there were concerns generally about Iranian responses,” particularly against US or Israeli interests.

And as the Post notes, the cyberattack “represents a flexing of offensive muscle by Cyber Command, led by Gen. Paul Nakasone.” Cyber Command was elevated to a full combatant command in May 2018.

“To the extent that Iran is conducting unlawful operations, I think [the cyberstrike] was an appropriate measure to take to preclude their ability to conduct further unlawful operations,” said international law professor at the US Naval War College, Michael Schmitt. “Sometimes cyberspace allows you to take operations that are not as escalatory as other options on the table. And this would strike me as one such operation.”

The last time the US (almost certainly) hacked Iran was in 2010, when the Stuxnet virus (suspected to have been created by Israel and the United States) was inserted into Iranian computer systems governing their nuclear centrifuges, causing them to wobble and tear themselves apart. The virus reportedly ruined nearly 20% of Iran’s nuclear centrifuges

end

Turkey/Iran/Lebanon

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s oil tanker is now said to be heading to Lebanon

(zeorhedge)

Turkey Says Adrian Darya Tanker Bound For Lebanon

A day after the Iranian oil-laden supertanker Adrian Darya 1 made a complete u-turn just as it made its way into Turkish territorial waters, Turkey has denied that it will enter port there; instead, top Turkish officials say it is bound for Lebanon. 

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Friday the tanker and its 2 million barrels of oil are headed to “the main port in Lebanon,” as reported by Reuters.

 

Image source: Reuters

It has changed course several times since being released by UK/Gibraltar custody weeks ago, and now appears to be circling in waters west of Cyprus.

Interestingly, in all the maneuvering it has actually come in the vicinity of its original suspected destination for which it was accused of busting EU sanctions in the first place, the Syrian port of Baniyas:

According to Refinitiv tracking data, the Adrian Darya, formerly called Grace 1, made a U-turn on Friday and headed for Turkey’s Iskenderun port – 200 km (124 miles) north of Syria’s Baniyas refinery, the tanker’s suspected original destination.

TankerTrackers.com, Inc.⚓️🛢@TankerTrackers

Just killing time. They might as well just stop moving and save some fuel.

View image on Twitter

Also on Friday the Iranian-flagged tanker again switched its destination, this time to the Bay of Iskennderun, Turkey; but analysts dismissed the likelihood of its actually going there.

Instead, the tanker is widely believed to be biding its time until it makes a hasty ship-to-ship transfer of the oil, likely “a few days away,” according to the best estimate of TankerTrackers.com.

On Monday an Iranian government spokesman announcedthe 2.1 million barrels have been sold to an unnamed buyer while en route across the Mediterranean after it was released. In statements made to reporters in Tehran, spokesman Ali Rabiei, said of the oil’s as yet unmentioned unloading point, “The buyer of the oil decides where its dest

 

Turkeination is.”

 

 

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s oil tanker is now said to be heading to Syrias the tanker is controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and thus deems any state’s interaction with it support of a formally designated terrorist group — meaning that if it does actually go to Lebanon, Beirut officials can be expected to feel the diplomatic wrath of Washington.

end
Turkey/EU
This is a crisis to the EU as now Turkey unloads hundreds of migrants onto Greek shores
(KeeingTalkingGreece.com)

EU Crisis Re-accelerates: 100s Of Migrants Suddenly Land On Greek Islands

Via KeepTalkingGreece.com,

13 boats with 500 to 600 migrants onboard landed in the outskirts of Skala Sykamineas on the island of Lesvos on Thursday afternoon.

All boats arrived at the same location in less than an hour.

Last time this happened was in the peak of migration crisis in 2015.

It was shortly after 5pm, when several boats were spotted on their way to Sykamia having crossed into Greek territorial waters with the Frontex apparently in the role of passive bystander.

A total of 546 people, men, women and children disembarked following instructions by refugees NGOs, Aegean Boat Report reports.

According to local media, the migrants are excepted to be transferred to the hot spot of Moria already overcrowded with more than 10,000 people, while its capacity is designed for 3,000.

It is the largest number of migrants massively coming to Lesvos from the Turkish coast since the migration crisis in 2015-2016.

Moria workers are deeply concerned about the current situation, not only to the overcrowded situation but also to the under-performance of medical service.

RSA@rspaegean

Dozens of newcomers are sleeping on blankets on the floor in . Reportedly they have to wait an hour in the queue for access to the toilet

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

They say that 6,000 migrants of Moria have not been medically registered.

Political and military leadership of the Greek Shipping Ministry are concerned not only about the massive arrivals on Thursday but also for their increase in the month of  August.

Next to the massive arrivals on Lesvos, a total of 122 migrants and refugees landed on the islands of Farmakonisi, Kos, Lesvos as well as in Alexandroupolis in north-eastern Greece.

According to latest data, the islands of the Eastern Aegean Sea Lesvos, Chios, Samos, leros and Kos are hosting more than 24,000 refugees and migrants.

The Ministry is to hold an extraordinary meeting on the issue is to take place on Friday noon.

There are reportedly still 4 patrol boats in the area of Sykamia.

The massive arrivals coincide with the growing tension between Turkey with the US and the European Union. Granting traffickers freedom of movement would increase the political pressure, Ankara seems to think.

end

6.Global Issues

DeBeers reports a huge crash in sales of 44% as demand for diamonds collapse

(zerohedge)

Diamond Crisis: De Beers Sales Crash 44% As Demand Plummets

 

The Financial Times states that De Beers’, the world’s largest diamond miner, has seen a collapse in sales this month, as the entire industry is on the brink of a downturn amid weaker consumer demand and the proliferation of lab-grown stones.

De Beers said Wednesday that it sold just $280 million of diamonds this month, compared with $503 million in the same period a year ago, which represents a 44% drop. The miner’s sales so far this year are down $1 billion from the same time in 2018.

“The current malaise in the market is due to oversupply,” said Paul Zimnisky, an analyst in New York, who said diamond buyers had too much inventory.

Declining demand from the world’s two largest diamond-consuming countries, the US and China, has fuelled uncertainties for the overall industry. Along with macroeconomic risks about a structural decline of the global economy and an out of control trade war between the US and China.

Diamond buyers have become disappointed with the cost of rough diamonds sold by De Beers this year as spot prices for polished diamonds have fallen on a YoY basis.

“Clients are waiting for polished demand to pick up and are trying to buy as little as possible,” David Harari, co-founder of diamond trading platform Bluedax, said in a newsletter. ”

“The secondary market shows no demand for goods, and items traded are being sold without a profit and even at a loss.”

Shares in Signet, the world’s largest retailer of diamond jewelry, have crashed 60% this year.

Zimnisky noted the rapid increase of lab-grown diamonds, which are chemically grown in a lab, are also “taking a very precious piece of the mined industry’s modest growth.”

As a result of the oversupplied market, De Beers has so far slashed production with a target of 31 million carats this year compared with 35.3 million lin 2018.

While diamonds maybe forever, diamond demand from consumers isn’t – and that demand tends to collapse ahead of (and during) recessions.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Argentina

Argentina is now officially in default as they delay payments on bonds.  This also triggers credit default swaps.  S and P now downgrades Argentina’s debt to what is called selective default

(zerohedge)//TWO COMMENTARIES

Argentina Is Officially In Default Again: S&P Downgrades Credit Rating To SD

The IMF just broke its own record of incompetence: less than a year after its record, $57 billion bailout of Argentina was finalized, S&P just downgraded the country from B- to Selective Default – the equivalent to a default rating – following the government’s “reprofiling” of its debt on August 28, when it unilaterally extended the maturity of all short-term paper due to the continued inability to place short-term paper with private-sector market participants. Some $101 billion in debt is affected.

However, the selective default state will last for just one day, as only a few hours later, S&P will upgrade Argentina from SF to CCC-. As S&P explains, “under our distressed exchange criteria, and in particular for ‘B-‘ rated entities, the extension of the maturities of the short-term debt with no compensation constitutes a default. As the new terms became effective  immediately, the default has also been cured. Therefore, we plan to raise the long-term ratings to ‘CCC-‘ and the short-term ratings to ‘C’ on Aug. 30, in line with our policies.”

Here is the full summary of today’s action, per S&P:

  • Following the continued inability to place short-term paper with private-sector market participants, the Argentine government unilaterally extended the maturity of all short-term paper on Aug. 28. This constitutes default under our criteria, and we are lowering the local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings to ‘SD’ and the short-term issue ratings to ‘D’.
  • The administration is also sending legislation to Congress seeking support from the Argentine political class to engage in a re-profiling of the remaining debt, so we are lowering our long-term foreign and local currency issue ratings to ‘CCC-‘ on heightened risk of a default under our criteria.
  • As the new terms for short-term debt have become effective already, we plan to raise the sovereign credit ratings from ‘SD’ on Aug. 30. We plan to raise the long-term sovereign credit ratings to ‘CCC-‘ and the short-term sovereign credit ratings to ‘C’.

The rating agency also provided the following rationale for its action:

Following the continued inability to place short-term paper with private-sector market participants, the Argentine government unilaterally extended the maturity of all short-term paper on Aug. 28. Under our distressed exchange criteria, and in particular for ‘B-‘ rated entities, the extension of the maturities of the short-term debt with no compensation constitutes a default. As the new terms became effective immediately, the default has also been cured. Therefore, we plan to raise the long-term ratings to ‘CCC-‘ and the short-term ratings to ‘C’ on Aug. 30, in line with our policies.

Lowering the long-term issue ratings on Argentina to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘B-‘ reflects heightened risk of another distressed exchange as the Macri Administration seeks approval from Congress to engineer a possible maturity extension of all long-term debt in the remainder of its current term in office. This action is in line with our ‘CCC’ rating criteria and distressed exchange criteria as we see the most likely scenario as an extension of maturities, which will not be compensated by the issuer. Alternatively, there are risks associated with failure to advance, and prospects for ongoing stressed market dynamics post the national elections.

We lowered our transfer and convertibility assessment to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’. The transfer and convertibility assessment remains higher than the sovereign rating because the government aims to avoid capital controls and preserve international reserves with its action on short-term debt and potential action on long-term debt.

The heightened vulnerabilities of Argentina’s credit profile stem from the quickly deteriorating financial environment, the absence of confidence in the financial markets about policy initiatives under the next administration–elections are not until October–and the inability of the Treasury to roll over short-term debt with the private sector.

This has immensely stressed debt dynamics amid a depreciating exchange rate, a likely acceleration in inflation, and a deepening economic recession.

These factors have stressed capacity to pay, leading to the maturity extension of short-term debt.

The catalyst for the downgrade was Wednesday’s largely expected announcement by Economy Minister Hernan Lacunza, who said that the government will postpone $7 billion of payments on short-term local notes held by institutional investors this year and will seek the “voluntary reprofiling‘’ of $50 billion of longer-term debt. It will also start talks over repayments on $44 billion it has received from the IMF (this means that the IMF’s biggest source of funding, the US, will likely be impaired).

Argentina’s currency and bonds, which have been in freefall since opposition leader Alberto Fernandez routed market favorite President Mauricio Macri, in an Aug. 11 primary vote, plunged more today, with the peso down more than 20% since then and bonds have hit record lows. CDS traders now price in an over 90% chance of default in the next five years.

S&P’s downgrade to SD follows two, less draconian actions from both Fitch, and itself: on Aug. 16 Fitch cut the country’s long-term issuer rating by three notches to CCC from B, while S&P lowered the country’s sovereign rating to B- from B and slapped a negative outlook on it.

IMF officials who were visiting Argentina at the time of the announcement said they are analyzing the measures. “Staff understands that the authorities have taken these important steps to address liquidity needs and safeguard reserves,” the lender said in a statement.

The discredited IMF, which was also intimately involved (and some say caused( in Argentina’s prior bankruptcy, is expected to disburse another $5.3 billion in the next few months from a record $57 billion agreement, although it’s no longer certain given the current crisis, especially with Christine Lagarde leaving the IMF on her way to take over the ECB and destroy Europe.

Should the IMF cut off Argentina, and without markets access, the country is facing a quick and painful insolvency. According to Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley estimated that Argentina needed $12.9 billion for repayments on Treasury bills and bonds in the last four months of the year. Most of those payments have now been pushed back to next year.

Meanwhile, Argentina is burning through its last remaining dollar reserves. Gross foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $57.5 billion, but Capital Economics estimates that net reserves which exclude deposits at commercial banks are currently at $19 billion, down from $30 billion in mid-April, and the central bank has been spending about $300 million per day to avoid a total collapse in the ARS. According to Bloomberg, that amount only covers a quarter of Argentina’s gross external financing needs of $100 billion, which includes debt maturing over the next year plus the current account deficit. In other words, either the country’s creditors will agree to a massive haircut, or the IMF must prepare for another, even recorder bailout of Argentina with no assurance that the state won’t just keep defaulting.

And speaking of humiliation, while this is the IMF’s 2nd default involving Argentina, for Argentina it’s just another day in the park: the Latin American country has had 8 defaults since independence. After this week, mark it 9.

end

“The IMF Is Guilty”: Argentina’s Next President Blames Lagarde For Country’s Default

Almost exactly two years ago, the 20-some year old millennials that make up the majority of the fixed income investment universe couldn’t get enough of a brand new, and quite ridiculous, security that was being offered by Argentina: 100 year bonds. Demand was so high, in fact, that the bond sale was 3.5x oversubscribed as we wrote at the time , when we also warned that this particular experiment will end in tears.

The tears came earlier this month, when in a “shocking” outcome – because apparently it hadn’t dawned on anyone that a political regime that is forced to push for austerity as its IMF masters demand will be kicked out overnight – the “market-friendly” Macri regime was tossed out in a primary for the upcoming presidential election, sending the country’s currency and risk assets crashing. Oh, and those 100 year bonds which could be bought for 75 cents on the dollar just 3 weeks ago can now be purchased at half that price.

Unfortunately, all those 20-year-olds who couldn’t get enough Argentina bonds in the summer of 2017, are strangely missing to buy today’s dip, and not just because S&P downgraded the country to “selective default” late on Thursday – for the simple reason that the government decided to effectively default on some $101BN in bonds, its 9th default since Argentina’s independence from Spain in 1816, but also because of what Argentina’s presidential front-runner told the WSJ in an interview today, namely that the government’s new plan to restructure its short-term debt shows the country is virtually insolvent, hardly the stuff bondholders who have been burned – over and over – on Argentina bonds wanted to hear.

“Now, there is no one taking Argentine debt, or anyone who can pay it,” said Alberto Fernández, who as candidate of the Peronist coalition is now expected to win October’s presidential election. “Argentina is in a virtual, hidden default.”

Actually, the default is neither virtual, nor hidden. Don’t believes us? Just look at the above chart. But in any case, if Argentina is already virtually in default, then “what are the incentives for Fernandez to continue making payments rather than seek a negotiated restructuring?” asked Whitney Baker, founder of Totem Macro in New York, who noted that his comments to the Wall Street Journal “seem to validate that argument, rather than being the cause of incremental uncertainty.” He also noted that given the opposition candidate’s biases, it’s “a great opportunity to blame the default on Macri” and, of course, the IMF “and then seek to negotiate broader debt relief later,” she said.

The default – however one wants to define it – took place earlier this week, when outgoing president Mauricio Macri ’s government unilaterally extended the maturity of all short-term paper and said it wants to restructure its debt with the IMF, after the country’s treasury was unable to roll over obligations with the private sector.

This means that not only will international creditors be shafted, but so will the IMF, whose loan, the largest ever in IMF history, will be impaired. Just don’t tell US taxpayers – after all the US is the single biggest source of IMF funding…

… that their money was used to fund “humankind’s most expensive re-election campaign”, which is what Fernandez called the 2018 IMF’s $57 billion bailout of Argentina:

“What I want them to understand in the IMF is that they are guilty of this situation,” Mr. Fernández said. “It was an act of complicity with the Macri administration. It was humankind’s most expensive reelection campaign, and they gave money to a compulsive spender.”

The pain was compounded on Thursday when S&P downgrading Argentina’s debt to selective default on Thursday. “This has immensely stressed debt dynamics amid a depreciating exchange rate, a likely acceleration in inflation, and a deepening economic recession,” S&P said in a release.

Which then brought up the question: will Argentina’s next regime cooperate with creditors and the IMF to boost creditor recoveries, or will it be a freefall bankruptcy? The answer, it appears, is the latter.

In his first interview with a foreign-media outlet ahead of the election, Fernández told the WSJ that he was unwilling to support the government’s emergency measures aimed at containing rising volatility. “The market now knows where they’re headed,” he said at his campaign headquarters, referring to the government’s efforts to restructure short-term debt.

The 60-year-old future president said that when elected, his administration would aim for a balanced budget eventually. But he first plans an ambitious program to restore purchasing power by increasing wages and government pensions, while containing inflationary pressures with a broad-ranging pact with employers.

“To reverse this cycle you must launch a plan to boost consumption, and I will not ask permission from the IMF for it,” said Fernández, prompting the worst possible case of PRSD flashback over at the IMF headquarters.

In the same interview, Fernandez dismissed market concerns about a potential Peronist victory, and said that the $57 billion bailout from the IMF, its largest on record, is partly to blame for Argentina’s financial-market slide.

Instead of being used to replace more expensive debt, Mr. Fernández said, the dollars from the IMF have evaporated in capital outflows as the government burned foreign-currency reserves to contain the steady depreciation of the Argentine peso. Which, incidentally, is precisely what we said would happen last year.

zerohedge@zerohedge

IMF Approves Upsized $56.3BN Bailout Loan For Argentina: Here Are The Implications https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-27/imf-approves-upsized-563bn-bailout-loan-argentina-here-are-implications 

IMF Approves Upsized $56.3BN Bailout Loan For Argentina: Here Are The Implications

On Friday, the IMF completed its first review of the Argentine 3-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). As a result, the revised bailout loan was upsized to $56.3 billion (SDR40.71BN), up from $50bn under…

zerohedge.com

And indeed, the central bank has spent close to $1.5 billion to meet rising demand for dollars since mid-August, or about 10% of its net foreign-currency reserves. Worse, according to calculations by First Geneva Capital Partners, Argentina will drain its net foreign currency reserves within the month if it continues spending dollars at the current rate. So Buenos Aires has a choice: watch as its currency becomes the next Bolivar, or run out of dollars in days.

All of this, incidentally, was obvious to anyone who wasn’t an idiot, i.e. an IMF employee.

“The current crisis is a case of déjà vu,” he said in recalling the country’s financial collapse in 2001 that led to its default on $100 billion in government debt, a record at the time. His disagreements with the IMF’s conditions are also similar, he added.

Fernández piled on the criticism, and said he made it clear he doesn’t support Macri’s austerity measures to balance the government’s budget, which were among conditions agreed with the IMF: “Mr. Macri’s government caused damage similar to what Argentina suffered in 2001: a debt default, no foreign-currency reserves, a steep devaluation and increased poverty.”

One need look no further than Greece to see just how effective recent IMF interventions have been.

But the irony is that the fate of the IMF is now likely tied to how the monetary fund resolves the crisis situation involving its biggest ever client: Argentina has defaulted eight times on its foreign debt through its 200-year history (make that 9 times now). It has also received close to 30 support packages from the IMF, which has had a rocky relationship with previous Peronist leaders.

Meanwhile, without the IMF, the Argentina economy will quickly collapse, as economists say Argentina lacks the financial firepower to stimulate the economy, which contracted by 5.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier. And not everyone blames Mr. Macri for the country’s latest financial debacle.

What happens next? Nobody knows: as the WSJ notes, Fernández is a veteran politician who likes to play guitar and listen to Argentine rock music, and has extensive links across a Peronist movement that includes organized labor, far-left groups and conservative provincial governors. While seen as more pragmatic than his predecessor Christina Kirchner, who nationalized foreign companies and imposed capital controls when economic conditions deteriorated toward the end of her term, he may have no other choice.

For now, Fernández said he is against capital controls and expropriations. He said that if he wins, he will seek to attract foreign investment, focusing on efforts to continue developing the vast Vaca Muerta formation, home to one of the world’s largest deposits of shale oil and gas. “For us, it’s startling that the world believes that Macri is the solution.”

It wasn’t clear jsut how he hopes to attract foreign investment: if Argentina’s 100Y bonds which now yield over 18% aren’t enough, one wonders just what will Argentina have to offer to make itself attractive.

The IMF, which gave Argentina a $57 billion bailout in 2018, said Wednesday that it was assessing the measures.

One can’t blame outgoing IMF head Lagarde for trying to keep a low profile: after all her next job is to head the ECB, and after her absolutely disastrous tenure at the IMF, one can’t wait to see just how she destroys the Eurozone as her final parting gift.

END

India

The global slowdown is certainly having a huge effect on the economy in India.  Now its car manufacturing sector has halted production

(zerohedge)

Car Manufacturers Halt Production In India Amid Disastrous Slowdown

The India economy is set to deteriorate through 2H19 despite the government’s stimulus unveiled last week. A global synchronized slowdown and a negative fiscal impulse have sent the economy into a tailspin. Regional instabilities in Jammu and Kashmir, a currency rout with the rupee plunging underneath 72 against the dollar, and a trade war between the US and China, are other factors that have not helped the situation.

Automotive manufacturing in the country has been one of the hardest-hit sectorsIndian auto sales in July plunged 30.9% to 200,790. It’s the ninth consecutive month of declines and the steepest drop in 18 years. The sales declines forced hundreds of thousands of layoffs in the last several months, with many companies forcing to idle factories.

Reuters obtained company notices to employees that showed Japanese carmaker Toyota Motor and South Korea’s Hyundai Motor are the latest companies idling factories amid the downturn that could last through 1H20.

Denso Corp’s Indian unit, which makes powertrain and air-conditioning systems for cars, laid off 350 temporary workers at its Manesar plant in northern India, a source told Reuters.

Bellsonica, which is owned by Maruti Suzuki, had to idle its fuel tank and brake pad plants this month and lay off several hundred workers in Manesar, two sources said.

Already, the auto sector has cut as many as 350,000 jobs; this includes auto manufacturing, auto parts manufacturing, and dealership jobs.

The downturn in the automobile industry is a significant obstacle for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government because autos account for 50% of India’s manufacturing output.

Automobile companies, directly and indirectly, employ more than 35 million people.

“If this industry goes down, then everything gets hurt. Manufacturing, jobs, and revenue to the government,” Vishnu Mathur, director general, SIAM, told Reuters earlier this month.

In another memo viewed by Reuters, Toyota told workers the company would pause production at its plants in Bengaluru in southern India on Aug 16 and 17 “due to low market demand of vehicles.”

Aroon Purie

@aroonpurie

From Rs 36,000 cr turnover two decades ago & employing10M people, Indian automotive industry is today worth Rs 8.3 lakh cr and employs 32 M people. Govt cannot afford to let this sector slide. Implications go beyond economics, may even lead to social unrest.

N. Raja, deputy managing director, at Toyota’s Indian unit, told Reuters that its plants would have been idled for at least 16% of the entire month (or about five days) to thwart a rapid build in stocks due to decreasing demand.

“The industry is deeply concerned with the reality of poor customer sentiment faced by the sector,” said Raja, adding he expected the government to provide stimulus to the industry.

In another memo viewed by Reuters, Hyundai said it has halt body, paint, engine, and transmission plants for several days this month.

Last month, Bosch Ltd, the largest parts maker in India, published a memo that outlined how it suspended operations at its Gangaikondan plant in Tamil Nadu for a week in late July to “avoid unnecessary build-up of inventory.”

Ram Venkataramani, President, Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), said the 15% to 20% cut in auto production had triggered an auto crisis in India, could lead to at least one million people being laid off in the coming quarters.

The Indian auto crisis – regarded by industry executives as a disastrous downturn that could be one of the worst seen in the country’s history.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1039 DOWN .0020 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.35 DOWN 0.109 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2182   DOWN   0.0002  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3286 UP .0003 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 20 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1039 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 4.68 POINTS OR 0.16% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 21.23 POINTS OR 0.08%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,40%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 21.23 POINTS OR 0.08%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.68 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.40% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 245.44  POINTS OR 1.19%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1525.40

silver:$18.36-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.52% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.99 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.55 UP 4 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.13% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.27%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.11%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,00 up 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 111 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.70% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.70% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0989  DOWN     .0070 or 70 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.32 DOWN .137 OR YEN UP 14  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2171 DOWN .0012 POUND DOWN 12  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 13 basis points to 1.3290

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1565    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1614  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8254 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.27%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.52 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.99 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.80 UP 30  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 13.65  0.35%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 100.40 POINTS OR .85%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 30.,51 POINTS 0.56%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 18.50 POINTS or 0.21%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 75.27 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.98 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 58.98 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    66.76  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.23 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 23 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.70 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.00//

 

 

BRENT :  58.98

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.49  DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.96 ..DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.10987 ( DOWN 72   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.28 DOWN .174 (YEN UP 18 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98. UP 37 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2161 DOWN 22  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8265

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.71   DOWN 18 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 18  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3317 DOWN 33 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1565  (ONSHORE)/VERY DANGEROUS

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1602 (OFF SHORE//

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.70%

 

The Dow closed UP 41.03 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 10.51 POINTS OR 0.23%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.60 CLOSED UP .72

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.131%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Yuan Crashes Most In 25 Years As August Ends With Bonds & Bullion Bid

Well that was quite a month…

High(Low)lights…

  • China’s Renminbi suffered its biggest monthly loss since 1994
  • EM FX tumbled to a record low, worst month in a year
  • US Treasury yields plunged in August by most since Sept 2011 (to record low yields at the long-end)
  • US Yield Curve flattened most in August since Jan 2016 (to its flattest since 2007)
  • Bund yields tumbled 26bps to record lows – the biggest monthly drop since June 2016 (Brexit vote)
  • Treasury ‘VIX’ spiked most in August since May 2009
  • Iron Ore Futures (Singapore) suffered their worst month ever…
  • Gold has the best August dollar gains since Feb 2016
  • Silver had best August percentage gain since June 2016 (Brexit vote)

 

Stocks

US and Chinese stocks are surprisingly aligned YTD (both up around 16/17%) with Europe lagging (+13%)…

Source: Bloomberg

But on the month, all major regions saw stocks lose a similar 1.5 to 2.0%…

Source: Bloomberg

 

US equities ended the month lower with Trannies and Small Caps worst, Dow and S&P the least worst…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Only The Dow Industrials and Transports are green from last week’s Trump tantrum (S&P unch)…

 

NOTE – last minute panic-buying

 

Defensives dominated the month…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow managed to get back above its 100DMA but faded into it at the close today…

 

 

Buybacks saved stocks numerous times this month…

Source: Bloomberg

And while short-squeezes were used to keep stocks afloat, their surges were weaker and weaker…

Source: Bloomberg

And… as @TaviCosta notes, another one bites the dust. This beauty was the #2 performer in the S&P 500 since March of ’09! Just broke down from multi-year support line as well.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Bonds

Treasury yields utterly collapsed in August (30Y was down over 60bps at its lowest)… The biggest monthly drop in the long-bond’s yields since Sept 2011

Source: Bloomberg

30Y ended the week below 2.00% for the first time ever…

Source: Bloomberg

A bloodbath for bond bears…

Source: Bloomberg

And the yield curve collapsed (3m10Y) holding its inversion for

Source: Bloomberg

And 2s10s closed the week inverted (biggest 2-month flattening since Jan 2015)…

Source: Bloomberg

And before we leave bondland, we note that 30% of global IG corporate debt is now trading at a negative yield!!

Source: Bloomberg

FX

The Dollar rallied in August helped by Yuan weakness slightly offset by Yen strength…

Source: Bloomberg

The broad trade-weighted dollar is at an all-time record high…

Source: Bloomberg

EURUSD tumbled back below 1.10 for the first time since May 2017

Source: Bloomberg

Emerging Market FX tumbled to record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos ended in the red for the month after yesterday’s plunge (Litecoin the biggest loser)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin back below $10k…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities

Silver’s best month since the Brexit vote (June 2016) and Gold rallied but crude and copper were clubbed like baby seals…

Source: Bloomberg

Cotton fell for a fifth straight month in August, the worst such run in more than 14 years, as slowing demand feeds expectations for a global surplus.

Iron Ore Futures (Singapore) suffered their worst month ever…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver led the precious metals but Platinum had a big month (up most since Jan 2017)

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week unchanged but well up from Trump’s tantrum…

 

But Silver dramatically outperformed (up for the 7th week of the last 8)…

Source: Bloomberg

With Silver at its highest since April 2017

Source: Bloomberg

Gold continues to track the surge in negative-yielding debt volumes almost perfectly…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Finally, bonds and stocks had a very different month, you decide which you trust more…

Source: Bloomberg

Will it be 1998 or 2013?

Source: Bloomberg

While August saw a flood into safe-havens like bond and bullion, volatilities are notably divergent in Treasuries and Gold relative to other asset classes…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks Plunge, Dollar Spikes Into European Close As Tariff Delay Hopes Fade

Don’t show President Trump this chart…

Source: Bloomberg

On a broad trade-weighted basis, the dollar has never been stronger against the rest of the world’s fiat currencies.

And following this morning’s comments  from European Central Bank policy maker Ewald Nowotny, that adding equity purchases to the ECB’s monetary-policy mix isn’t a realistic option,

“I would completely exclude it” as a tool because “for Europe it is inappropriate,” Nowotny told reporters in Alpbach, Austria.

“We can tweak the instruments we have to a certain extent, but I wouldn’t expect us to have new measures.”

“The central bank has to know what’s going on in the markets but it should not be following the markets,” said Nowotny, whose term as head of the Austrian central bank expires on Saturday.

“It should kind of steer the markets, and lead the markets, and there might be a certain danger that we’re too much following.”

And EURUSD is trading back to a 1.09 handle for the first time since May 2017.

Source: Bloomberg

This has sent the dollar surging to new highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, we note that Nowotny raised some graver concerns overnight, warning that three generations without war in western Europe have created a potentially dangerous imbalance in the economy.

“The fortune of a now 74-year period of peace has inevitably led to a tremendous accumulation of wealth on the one hand and debt on the other,” the Austrian central-bank governor said in an interview with Wiener Zeitung.

“In the past, wars or high inflation have effectively taken care of this problem. How we solve it without both these factors remains open.”

Can Lagarde save the world from this ominous future?

The US equity markets are reacting significantly to the surge in the dollar into the EU close…

Presumably we are running out of time for the tariffs to be delayed at the last minute.

END

ii)Market data/USA

USA spending outpaces income by a wide margin.  Thus the savings rate drops dramatically

(zerohedge)

Americans’ Spending Jumps In July As Income Growth Slows Dramatically

Following this week’s GDP revisions, Americans’ spending was expected to reaccelerate (after slowing for 3 straight months) and incomes are expected to see growth moderate, and that is exactly what happened.

Personal Spending jumped 0.6% MoM in July (the best since April) but Personal Income rose just 0.1% MoM (well below expectations and the slowest since Sept 2018)

 

Source: Bloomberg

On a year-over-year basis, spending accelerated to +4.1% while income growth slowed notably to +4.6%.

 

Source: Bloomberg

Which means that the savings rate slumped from 8.0% to 7.7% (but remember this datya series was dramatically revised higher)…

 

And finally, The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator (Core PCE) remains below their mandated 2.00% level…

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Powell!

end

Univ. of Michigan confidence plummets as consumers face the tariff cliff

(zerohedge)

UMich Confidence Plummets In August As Consumers Face “Tariff Cliff”

Following the collapse in preliminary data, August’s final University of Michigan Sentiment index was expected to bounce modestly (given the exuberance in stocks), but instead tumbled further.

This was the biggest drop in six years, slumping to the lowest level of Donald Trump’s presidency as Americans expressed concern about how his tariffs will affect the economy.

The University of Michigan’s final sentiment index fell to 89.8 in August from a previously reported 92.1 and 98.4 in July, data showed Friday. The gauge of current conditions dropped to the lowest since October 2016, while the expectations index matched January as the weakest since that same period.

Source: Bloomberg

The 8.6-point drop from July was the largest since December 2012, while the 89.8 reading for the sentiment index was the lowest since October 2016.

“The recent decline is due to negative references to tariffs, which were spontaneously mentioned by one in three consumers,” Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement.

“ Trump’s tariff policies have been subject to repeated reversals amid threats of higher future tariffs. Such tactics may have some merit in negotiations with China, but they act to increase uncertainty and diminish consumer spending at home.”

The data indicate that the erosion of consumer confidence due to tariff policies is now well underway. Compared with those who did not reference tariffs, consumers who made spontaneous negative references to tariffs also voiced higher year-ahead inflation expectations, more frequently expected rising unemployment, and expected smaller annual gains in household incomes

All income levels saw sentiment decline but the richest suffered the largest drop…

Source: Bloomberg

While the overall level of sentiment is still consistent with modest gains in consumption, the data nonetheless increased the likelihood that consumers could be pushed off the “tariff cliff” in the months ahead, as buying climates tumbled for homes, vehicles, and household durables…

Source: Bloomberg

The economic outlook for the next 12 months fell to the lowest since January, while the five-year outlook also tumbled.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

After plunging 12 handles during early Asian trading, ESUs soared after China’s Commerce Ministry said China would not immediately retaliate against US tariffs and it was more important to discuss removing the additional tariffs.

China hopes U.S. will create conditions necessary for September trade talks

Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng: “The most important thing at the moment is to create necessary conditions for both sides to continue negotiations.”… Gao said China had “ample” countermeasures to retaliate against the planned U.S. tariffs, but talks in the current circumstances should focus on whether the tariffs could be cancelled…

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-hopes-us-will-create-conditions-necessary-for-sept-trade-talks/ar-AAGui2J

ESUs rallied 50 handles from their low at 21:44 ET until 9:53 ET on Thursday.

32 handles of rally appeared from 2 minutes after the European open until 13 minutes after the open.

ESUs sank 18 handles on: ECB’s Knot Says There is No Need to Resume QE Program Right Now

Market Expectation for ECB Sept. Decision Are ‘Overdone’ – BBG

ESUs rallied to a new high on: Trump Says U.S., China Plan to Have ‘a Talk’ on Trade Today

“There is a talk scheduled for today at a different level,” Trump said when asked in a Fox News radio interview if September talks with China are still on…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/trump-says-u-s-china-scheduled-to-have-a-talk-on-trade-today

ESUs then traded sideways until a VIX Fix rally pushed ESUs and stocks to minor new highs.

U.S. Prosecutors Looking into New Allegations of Technology Theft by Huawei, Sources – DJ

Inquiry Includes Subpoena from U.S. Prosecutors for Documents from Huawei

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-prosecutors-probe-huawei-on-new-allegations-of-technology-theft-11567102622

ESUs and stocks did a slow rollover on the Huawei news.  Upward manipulation stopped; but traders did not sell on the hope that manipulators would appear during the final hour.  ESUs and stocks tried to rally during the final 30 minutes, but sellers were waiting.  The market flat-lined into the close.

US Q2 GDP was the expected 2% (initially 2.1%).  However, consumption was revised 0.4 higher to 4.7%.  Residential investment was revised to -2.9% from -1.5%.

@Peter_Atwater: It’s almost as if Wall Street feels betrayed that Main Street feels as good as it does now.  I can almost hear analysts screaming, “How dare they.  Don’t they see the yield curve?!!!”

July Pending Home Sales dropped 2.5% m/m and 1.7% y/y.  Unchanged m/m was expected.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Drop Most Since Early 2018

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/u-s-contracts-to-buy-existing-homes-drop-most-since-early-2018

U.S. Goods-Trade Deficit Narrowed in July to Three-Month Low

The gap shrank to $72.3 billion in July from $74.2 billion the month prior…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/u-s-goods-trade-deficit-narrowed-in-july-to-three-month-low

Argentina’s Credit Rating Cut to Selective Default by S&P – after the South American nation said it would delay payments on as much as $101 billion of debt…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/argentina-s-rating-cut-to-selective-default-by-s-p

Prominent Hong Kong activist Joshua Wong has been arrested, according to a statement from the political party he co-founded    https://bloom.bg/32f6yPY

Today is the end of August and the start of the Labor Day Weekend, the unofficial end of summer. Normally, the bulk of action occurs early because absenteeism increases as the session progresses.  However, the exiting traders allow a determined few to manipulate stocks more easily in the afternoon.

Barring news, action should be concentrated from the NYSE open until the European close and then during the final hour.  The key question is: will performance gamers dominate late trading or will traders thwart the manipulators’ scheme by liquidating ahead of the Labor Day Weekend?

Remember, Team Trump tends to issue positive verbal intervention on Friday.

Office of the Inspector General U.S. Department of Justice

Report of Investigation of Former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey’s Disclosure of Sensitive Investigative Information and Handling of Certain Memoranda

     Comey’s actions violated Department or FBI policy, or the terms of Comey’s FBI Employment Agreement.  As described in this report, we conclude that Comey’s retention, handling, and dissemination of certain Memos violated Department and FBI policies, and his FBI Employment Agreement…

ConclusionComey’s unauthorized disclosure of sensitive law enforcement information about the Flynn investigation merits similar criticism… Comey had several other lawful options available to him to advocate for the appointment of a Special Counsel, which he told us was his goal in making the disclosure.  What was not permitted was the unauthorized disclosure of sensitive investigative information… in order to achieve a personally desired outcome.

    OIG has provided this report to the FBI and to the Department of Justice Office of Professional Responsibility for action they deem appropriate. [The DoJ has declined to prosecute Comey.]

https://oig.justice.gov/reports/2019/o1902.pdf

The Swamp/Deep State protects its own.  There is a multi-tiered justice system in the USA.

Comey’s Memos Indicate Dossier Briefing of Trump Was a Setup

In multiple memos, Comey specifically mentioned that CNN had the dossier and wanted a “news hook” that would enable the network to report on its most salacious allegations even though theyhad not been verified…  https://thefederalist.com/2018/04/20/comeys-memos-indicate-dossier-briefing-of-trump-was-a-setup/

@ByronYork: At 1/6/17 Trump Tower meeting, Comey told president-elect, ‘We are not investigating you, sir.’ At that moment, Comey had Crossfire Hurricane team waiting for secure videoconference on Trump response to Steele dossier allegations.

DOJ declines to prosecute Comey despite finding that he leaked memo  https://reut.rs/30H4wYk

@brithume: From the report: “We have previously faulted Comey for acting unilaterally and inconsistent with Department policy. Comey’s unauthorized disclosure of sensitive law enforcement informationabout the Flynn investigation merits similar criticism.”

@paulsperry_: Nowhere is it mentioned in IG Horowitz report on Comey that he worked together with Comey in the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York. Horowitz and Comey are friends. This should be a disclosure in all investigative reports Horowitz delivers involving Comey

    This is the 2nd time IG Horowitz has let his old pal Comey slide. No criminal referral despite leaking classified information & dissembling to agents. Horowitz also found not credible Comey’s explanation for sitting on discovery of Hillary emails on Weiner laptop for full month… No criminal referral despite leaking classified information and clearly lying to investigators?!

     These 2 Trump-haters & Comey-lovers — MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace & NYT’s Michael Schmidt (who received memos Comey leaked thru mutual pal Dan Richman) are romantically involved. Wallace is ex-McCain adviser. Incestuous, ain’t it? This is how the rancid DC sausage is made, folks

     Horowitz never asked Daniel Richman — Comey’s conduit for leaking otherwise classified memos on POTUS to the New York Times — if Comey had ever given him any other information to leak to the media prior to his firing in May 2017.

WSJ’s @KimStrassel: The most amusing bits of IG report are @Comey trying to dig himself out of his disingenuous claims. Asked by IG how a memo detailing an official dinner between an FBI head and POTUS could ever be “personal,” Comey explains he was also there in capacity of . . .er, “human being [And Comey’s good pal Horowitz, and the DoJ, bought this BS!]

@LarrySchweikart: The incredible failure of the Trump DOJ encompasses no prosecution of fascist antifa; no prosecution of sanctuary city mayors; and no prosecution of those who resisted Kobach’s vote fraud commission.

Judicial Watch’s @TomFitton: IG shows Comey lied and leaked classified and other FBI files in vendetta to get Trump.  Outrageous that DOJ won’t prosecute him.  AG Barr should rethink this terrible decision

Journalist @ShimonPro: To me most important part of this IG report: Comey set a “dangerous example” for FBI employees in an attempt to “achieve a personally desired outcome.”

@johncardillo: A major problem with the decision not to criminally charge @Comey is that every federal agent can now leak info and the worst that can happen is that they’ll be fired.

@tracybeanz: Comey knew Sessions would be recusing two weeks before he did actually recuse.

@KurtSchlichter: Criminal defense attorneys must be dancing around the courtrooms today because they know that many prospective jurors are never going to believe anything an FBI agent says on the stand. Thanks Comey, McCabe, etc. You did this. You destroyed the FBI’s reputation.

Remember this?  FBI Lab Flaws Traced To 3,000 Cases   April 16, 2003

A Justice Department internal investigation concluded in 1997 that 13 lab technicians made scientific errors in cases or slanted testimony to help prosecutors. Several were reprimanded, but none was fired or prosecuted…   https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-lab-flaws-traced-to-3000-cases/

Apparently, the MSM no longer believes that Biden is the best Dem candidate to beat Trump.

WaPo: As he campaigns for president, Joe Biden tells a moving but false war story

“This is the God’s truth,” Biden had said as he told the story. “My word as a Biden.”  Except almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect… Biden visited Kunar province in 2008 as a U.S. senator, not as vice president. The service member who performed the celebrated rescue that Biden described was a 20-year-old Army specialist, not a much older Navy captain. And that soldier, Kyle J. White, never had a Silver Star, or any other medal, pinned on him by Biden…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-he-campaigns-for-president-joe-biden-tells-a-moving-but-false-war-story/2019/08/29/b5159676-c9aa-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

Comey the Leaker, Fed Against Trump, Crop Update

By Greg Hunter On August 30, 2019

The Office of Inspector General report is out on fired FBI Director James Comey about his leaking to get his friend Robert Mueller installed as Special Counsel.  Let me sum up the 85 page report:  Comey is guilty of criminal leaks, and he will not be prosecuted.  You lost Jeffery Epstein, and America thanks you William Barr for letting another one go!!

Former Fed Chief Bill Dudley wrote in an Op-Ed piece for Bloomberg (I mistakenly said NYT) that the Fed should not help Donald Trump with his China trade war or with his re-election in 2020.  I have said before the Fed is out to get Donald Trump, and now it is in writing from one of the Fed’s top bankers.

The crops can be described as very uneven as I travel across the Midwest.  Some crops are great, some are mediocre, some are poor and many fields did not get planted because of too much rain or too much flooding.  The USDA is predicting lower yields and higher prices, and you should believe them.  The only two questions are how much lower and how much higher?

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

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