SEPT 30/GOLDEN CHINESE WEEK BEGINS AND AS USUAL THEY RAID GOLD DOWN $32.50 TO $1467.40/SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TO $16.98//ANOTHER BIG REPO UPTAKE//COLLATERAL RATE RISES BY A FULL 1%//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT////

GOLD:$1467.40 DOWN $32.50 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$16.98 DOWN 58 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1472.50

 

silver:  $17.02

 

Definition of Rico

RICO is typically used to indict mobsters – which makes its use against employees of the largest bank in America a very disquieting event. But even more disquieting is that two trial lawyers compared JPMorgan Chase to the Gambino crime family five long years ago and recommended in their 2016 book that the bank’s officers be prosecuted under the RICO statute.” … Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Ted Butler….

“If JPMorgan were ever found to be guilty of what I know it to be guilty of, the repercussions and reparations (including punitive damages) could completely overwhelm the bank’s ability to survive. For instance, every miner who produced silver for the past decade would have a claim against JPMorgan, as would just about every silver investor of every stripe. Therefore, some alternative resolution must be devised that doesn’t fully acknowledge all that JPMorgan had done wrong for more than a decade.” … Ted Butler
Mike  Savage..
“For those who still doubt that all markets are being manipulated even though the banks have paid billions in fines for manipulating LIBOR, currencies, interest rates, and gold and silver just maybe a criminal indictment of 3 traders as JP Morgan might give you a clue as to what has been happening. By the way, the attorney representing at least one defendant is none other than the person who shut down an investigation at the CFTC a number of years ago regarding said manipulation of the gold and silver markets.” … Mike Savage

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 839/7214

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,499.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/27/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/01/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 1248
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 11
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 1156
323 H HSBC 4000
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 9
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 37
661 C JP MORGAN 3121 524
661 H JP MORGAN 3157
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1 3
686 C INTL FCSTONE 42 9
690 C ABN AMRO 137
737 C ADVANTAGE 6 49
800 C MAREX SPEC 41
880 H CITIGROUP 869
905 C ADM 7 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 7,214 7,214
MONTH TO DATE: 7,214

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 7214 NOTICE(S) FOR 721,400 OZ (22.43 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7214 NOTICES FOR 721,400 OZ  (22.43 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR OCT

 

 

42 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 210,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month 42 NOTICES FOR: 210,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8017 DOWN 121 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8193 UP 150

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL  SIZED 937 CONTRACTS FROM 214,480 DOWN TO 213,543 WITH THE 34 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE DISCREPANCY OF 5,315 CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL NUMBERS //OBVIOUS MASSIVE FRAUD//

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR OCT 0,; DEC  1809 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1809 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1809 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1809 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.045 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 34 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.610   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

YESTERDAY, ANOTHER MAJOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX.  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO LOWER SILVER’S PRICE (34 CENTS). HOWEVER TO THEIR SHOCKING SURPRISE, AGAIN AND AGAIN NOBODY LEAVES THE SILVER COMEX ARENA AS THE TOTAL OF OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE BY  872 CONTRACTS MAKING THEIR RAID TOTALLY USELESS TO THEM AS THEIR PRIMARY AIM IS TO FLEECE LONGS.  THE MAJORITY EITHER MORPHED INTO LONDON FORWARDS OR  THEY ARE STANDING FOR DELIVERY HERE AS THEY  SEEK OUT PHYSICAL METAL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE POND

.

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

34,980 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 34,980 CONTRACTS) OR 174.900 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1749 CONTRACTS OR 8.745 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  174.900 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 24.98% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,724.60   MILLION OZ.

 

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                             182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4348 DESPITE THE 34 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1809 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY  SIZED: 872 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1809 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 937  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 34 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.56 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.067 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 153% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 121 NOTICE(S) FOR 605,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.610 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALLISH 2225 CONTRACTS, TO 629,466 DESPITE THE STRONG  $8.20 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// FRIDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,838 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  12,838 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 629,466,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,613 CONTRACTS: 2225 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 12,838 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 10,613 CONTRACTS OR 1,061,300 OZ OR 33.01 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $8.20 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 33.01  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS THE COMEX GOLD VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST ARE HUGE. THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD BUT UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE LONGS WHICH IS THEIR PRIMARY FUNCTION. THE BANKER/OFFICIAL SECTOR ON FRIDAY CALLED FOR A RAID ON OUR GOLD AS THE SPREADERS ILLEGALLY LIQUIDATED THEIR CONTRACTS AT DIFFERENT TIMES OF THE DAY  MAGNIFYING THE ATTACK AND LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST. HOWEVER, THEIR PLAN SOMEHOW WENT ARRAY AS AGAIN NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD COMEX ARENA.  THESE CROOKS USE THE SAME MODUS OPERANDI  AT EVERY UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WHETHER IT IS GOLD OR SILVER ( THAT IS SPREADING LIQUIDATION). THE CFTC REFUSE TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED TO THEM ON THIS OBVIOUS CRIMINAL ACTIVITY (THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN BRIEFS SUBMITTED TO THE F.C.A.{FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY}. IN LONDON).

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 163,828 CONTRACTS OR 16,382,800 oz OR 509.57 TONNES (20 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8191 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 509.57 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 509.57/3550 x 100% TONNES =14.35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4660.89  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    509.57  TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2225 DESPITE THE STRONG  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($8.20)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 12,838 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12,838 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 10,613 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

12,838 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2225 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 33.01 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.20 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had a monstrous:  7,214 notice(s) filed upon for 721,400 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A SMALL 2.06 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD IS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 937 CONTRACTS from 214,480 DOWN TO 213,543 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  1809  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1809 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 4378  CONTRACTS TO THE 1809 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 6,187 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.36 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT: 43.610 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 34 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1809 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.98 POINTS OR 0.92%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 137.46 POINTS OR 0.53%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 123.06 POINTS OR 0.56%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .34%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1426 /Oil DOWN TO 55.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1426 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1414 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

Green shoots in China’s mfg sector? Most likely the data is fudged

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Boris Johnson seems to be winning in this ugly Brexit war

a must read…

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

ii)Tom Luongo’s take on the Brexit affair.  I would put my money on Mish Shedlock

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

iii)Metro bank teeters on bankruptcy after a failed bond sale.  It shares collapsed by 95% from 4,000 pence down to a few pennies(Courbishley/WolfStreet)

IV)ITALY

How stupid can they get?.  With Salvini out, the Migrants are coming in.  Don’t they learn from what is happening in Sweden
(Kern/Gatestone)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Iran Iraq//

Israel is most likely behind the attack Friday night on Iran’s land bridge from Iraq to Syria

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Avery Goodman like other analysts believe that QE4 has begun.  First with the TOMO and then finally POMO will begin in earnest in November.

(Avery Goodman/GATA)

ii)Alasdair Macleod strongly believes that the failure in the repo market is due to the derivative busts of Deutsche bank

(Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

iii)Schiff still denies the massive intervention of governments in the gold/silver markets

(Chris Powell/GATA)

iv)Hugo Salinas Price on the damage caused by governments on the creation of infinite money

(Hugo/GATA)

v)Why you should join GATA in New Orleans
(Brien Lundin/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Chicago area PMI back into contraction area for the 3rd month in the last 4 readings

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Many thought that it was our foreign banks that provided the repo problem last week.  In the latest data release it was a few of the large USA banks that were short of liquidity.  We await for the Monday numbers..

(zerohedge)
b)Monday’s numbers

Third consecutive undersubscribed overnight repo operation/ $63.5 billion in collateral accepted on this last day of Q3. However the collateral rate charged rises by a huge 1% to 2.8%. However this rate should decrease as we enter the new quarter tomorrow and window dressing ceases.

(zerohedge)

c)Forever 21 finally succumbs as retail apocalypse continues.  They believe 30,000 jobs is at risk

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)An absolute joke;  The Ukrainians reportedly had no idea about Trump withholding 400 million dollars until one month after the call

(zerohedge)

b)Russ Limbaugh has declared what I have been saying: we are in the middle of a cold civil war

(Sara Carter/Russ Limbaugh)

c)In a letter to CBS, the attorney for the Whistleblower, states the obvious:  that he is in obvious danger as Trump wants to expose him. However they did not say he is in Federal protection

(zerohedge)

d)This farce continues as House democrats subpoena Giulian over “scheme” to investigate Biden even though the Bidens are absolute crooks

(zerohedge)

v) King report/some major Swamp stories

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 2225 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 629,466 DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS OF $8.20 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 12,838 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 12,838   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  12,838 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 10,613 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 12,838 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 2,225 COMEX CONTRACTS.

INCLUDED IN THE LOSS AT THE COMEX IS THE LOSS OF CONSIDERABLE SPREADING CONTRACTS…SO THE REAL GAIN AT THE GOLD COMEX IS HIGHER.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS SUCCEEDED FRIDAY IN THEIR ATTEMPT AT LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS THEY USED THEIR THE ILLEGAL ACTIVITY OF THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION.  I WROTE ON FRIDAY:”I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT THE LONGS PICKED UP CHEAP CONTRACTS YESTERDAY AND WILL TURN THAT PAPER INTO REAL METAL.”  IT SURE LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY BIG WAS GOBBLING UP CONTRACTS AND WERE READY TO TURN THEM INTO PHYSICAL AS YOU WILL SEE THE HUGE NUMBER OF CONTRACTS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL DELIVERY.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  10,613 CONTRACTS OR 1,061,300 OZ OR 33.01 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. However to my huge surprise, we have a monstrous 9,355 contracts initially stand for delivery as we only lost 2729 contracts

 

Therefore by definition the initial amount of gold oz standing for October is as follows:

 

9,352 contracts standing x 100 oz per contract  -=    935,200 oz or 29.08 tonnes of gold.  THIS IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE AND THE LARGEST EVER TONNAGE OF GOLD STANDING IN ANY PREVIOUS OCTOBER MONTH!! 

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a gain of 141 contracts and thus the OI is ADVANCED to 829.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 382 contracts UP to 487,147.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 7214 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  721,400 OZ. (22.43 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 937 CONTRACTS FROM 214,480 DOWN TO 213,543 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A HUGE 34 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 1173 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF ONLY 33 CONTRACTS.

 

THUS BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER IS AS FOLLOWS:

1173 CONTRACTS STANDING X 5,000 OZ  PER CONTRACT =    5,865,000 OZ STANDING. THIS IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR OCTOBER IS ALSO A VERY POOR MONTH FOR SILVER OZ STANDING.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 18 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 415. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 716 CONTRACTS UP TO 164,862.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 121 notice(s) filed for 605,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver (as the crooks are having a tough time finding physical silver)

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 197,631  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  479,824  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

SEPT 30/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
4924.53 oz
HSBC
LOOMIS
INCLUDES A PHONY 150 KILOBARS ENTRY
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

96,450.000

INT. DELAWARE

3,000 KILOBARS

A PHONY ENTRY

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
7214 notice(s)
 721400 OZ
(22.43 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2138 contracts
(2143800 oz)
6.650 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7214 notices
721400 OZ
22.43 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 2 kilobar entries

AND 3 PHONY ENTRIES

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into INT. Delaware: 96,450.000  oz

3,000 kilobars and this is a phony entry

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 96,450.000  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ a phony amount  arrived   today

we had 2 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of HSBC  102.03 oz

ii) Out of Loomis; 4822.500 oz  150 kilobars

and this is a phony entry

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 4924.53  oz

i) we had one adjustment from HSBC and this is a phony entry…there is no gold at the comex

i) Out of HSBC:  393,745.737 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and into the dealer account of HSBC

you will see that they will not settle upon this as it is nothing but paper.

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 3121 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 7214 contract(s) of which 315 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 524 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7214) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (9352 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (7214 x 100 oz per contract) equals 935,200 OZ OR 29.08 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (7214 x 100 oz)  + (9352)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (7214 x 100 oz )which equals 935,200 oz standing OR 29.08 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 32.51 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 29.08 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 61.70 TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 59.08 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 20.26 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,045,289.998 oz or  32.51 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,188,421.587 oz 254.69 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 30 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 26,935.509 oz
CNT

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
603,974.310 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
121
CONTRACT(S)
(605,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1052 contracts
 5,260,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  121 contracts

605,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) into Brinks; 603,974.310 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 6-3,974.310  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else; 0

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  26,935.509 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 26,935.509  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

total dealer silver:  76.314 million

total dealer + customer silver:  313.602 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 121 contract(s) FOR 605,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 121 x 5,000 oz = 605,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (1173) and the number of notices served upon today 121 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 121 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (1173)- number of notices served upon today (121)x 5000 oz equals 5,865,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 121 notice(s) filed for 605,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  48,616 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 145,355 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 145,355 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 726 million  OZ 104% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.50% ((SEPT 30/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.06% to NAV (SEPT 30/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.50%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.66 TRADING 14.17///DISCOUNT 3.34

 

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

SEPT 30/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 922.88 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 671 TRADING DAYS: 26.28 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 571- TRADING DAYS: A NET 140.37 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/2019:

 

 

Inventory 381.786 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.15/ and libor 6 month duration 2.06

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .09

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.03%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.04

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Avery Goodman like other analysts believe that QE4 has begun.  First with the TOMO and then finally POMO will begin in earnest in November.

(Avery Goodman/GATA)

Avery Goodman: QE4 has begun and will drag monetary metals up with it

 Section: 

1:43p ET Friday, November 27, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Securities lawyer Avery Goodman writes today that the Federal Reserve’s new “temporary” open market operations adding tens of billions of dollars to the banking system are likely the start of a fourth round of “quantitative easing,” prompted by the insolvency of a systemically crucial bank, probably Deutsche Bank, to which many other systemically crucial banks are chained with derivatives.

This money creation, Goodman writes, soon will become virtually infinite and drag monetary metals prices up with it.

Goodman’s analysis is headlined “QE4 Begins — Fed Printed An Extra $161.7 Billion Last Week” and it’s posted at Seeking Alpha here:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4293900-qe4-begins-fed-printed-extra-16…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Alasdair Macleod strongly believes that the failure in the repo market is due to the derivative busts of Deutsche bank

(Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: The ghost of failed banks returns

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Friday, September 27, 2019

Last week’s failure in the US repo market might have had something to do with Deutsche Bank’s disposal of its prime brokerage to BNP, bringing an unwelcome spotlight to the troubled bank and other foreign banks with prime brokerages in America. There are also worrying similarities between Germany’s Deutsche Bank today and Austria’s Credit-Anstalt in 1931, only the scale is far larger and additionally includes derivatives with a gross value of $50 trillion.

… 

If the repo problem spreads, it could also raise questions over the synthetic exchange-traded fund industry, whose cash and deposits may face escalating counterparty risks in some of the large banks and their prime brokerages. Managers of synthetic ETFs should be urgently re-evaluating their contractual relationships.

Whoever the repo failure involved, it is likely to prove a watershed moment, causing U.S. bankers to more widely consider their exposure to counterparty risk and risky loans, particularly leveraged loans and their collateralised form in CLOs. The deterioration in global trade prospects, as well as the US economic outlook and the likelihood that reducing dollar interest rates to the zero bound will prove insufficient to reverse a decline, will take on a new relevance to their decisions. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-ghost-of-faile…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

END

Schiff still denies the massive intervention of governments in the gold/silver markets

(Chris Powell/GATA)

Schiff wallows in ‘conspiracy theory,’ never addresses conspiracy fact

 Section: 

11:09a ET Saturday, September 28, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff said this week that the recent indictments of three more traders at JPMorganChase on charges of manipulating the monetary metals market “do not vindicate all the conspiracy theories alleging that there has been a concerted effort by big banks to artificially suppress the price of gold in order to keep the fiat monetary system going.”

Of course the indictments don’t vindicate “all” the “conspiracy theories” — and who said they did?

… 

The indictments do impugn the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s competence in detecting market manipulation, insofar as the indictments cover the period during which the commission purported to be investigating manipulation of the silver market only to announce that it had discovered nothing actionable.

Since JPMorganChase is a primary dealer in U.S. Treasury securities and long has had an intimate relationship with the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve in executing various rescues on Wall Street, the indictments also might call that relationship into question by anyone who has a little more curiosity than Schiff.

But Schiff still dismisses as “conspiracy theory” complaints of surreptitious government and central bank intervention in the monetary metals markets even as GATA has been documenting such intervention for nearly 20 years.

The March 1999 staff report of the International Monetary Fund confirming that central banks conceal their gold swaps and leases to facilitate secret interventions in the gold and currency markets is not “conspiracy theory” but conspiracy fact:

http://www.gata.org/node/12016

The 2008 PowerPoint presentation of the Bank for International Settlements advertising to potential members that its services include secret interventions in the gold market is not “conspiracy theory” but conspiracy fact:

http://www.gata.org/node/11012

The 2005 speech by the head of the BIS’ monetary and economic department, William R. White, asserting that a primary purpose of international central bank cooperation is gold and foreign exchange market rigging is not “conspiracy theory” but conspiracy fact:

http://www.gata.org/node/4279

The transcript of U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s conversation with his deputy, Thomas O. Enders, at the State Department in April 1974, in which they discussed U.S. policy to push gold out of the world financial system to sustain the dollar as the world reserve currency is not “conspiracy theory” but conspiracy fact:

http://www.gata.org/node/13310

The “Central Bank Incentive Program” operated by CME Group, proprietor of the major futures exchanges in the United States, under which governments and central banks get discounts for their secret trading of all major futures contracts is not “conspiracy theory” but conspiracy fact:

http://www.gata.org/node/18925

The refusal of the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve to answer a congressman’s questions about which markets they’re secretly trading in is not “conspiracy theory” but conspiracy fact. So is the refusal of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to answer the congressman’s question as to whether the commission’s jurisdiction extends to manipulative trading done by or at the behest of the U.S. government or whether such trading is legal, authorized by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934:

http://www.gata.org/node/19430

We could go on and on but Schiff, like many other fund managers, analysts, and pundits, never addresses the documentation, even as he is a frequent guest on business-oriented television programs. Maybe he never addresses the documentation because never addressing it is a prerequisite of appearing on those programs.

Schiff’s wallowing in “conspiracy theory” can be viewed at his internet site here:

https://schiffgold.com/videos/peter-schiff-jp-morgan-indictments-dont-pr…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

END

Hugo Salinas Price on the damage caused by governments on the creation of infinite money

(Hugo/GATA)

Hugo Salinas Price: The Semmelweis reflex

 Section: 

11:30a ET Saturday, September 28, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, yesterday offered a medical analogy for the refusal of governments, central banks, economists, and others to acknowledge the damage being done to the world by the creation of infinite money. That is, they are all too invested in a system that serves them well but abuses the world, and too arrogant to admit their mistake.

… 

The analogy cited by Salinas Price is “the Semmelweis Reflex,” named after the experience of a Ignaz Semmelweis, a Hungarian doctor who discovered that the failure to follow antiseptic procedures in hospitals was the primary cause of the death of women after childbirth. His colleagues, consumed by arrogance, could not believe it and were offended by his clamoring that they simply should wash their hands.

Salinas Price’s commentary is headlined “The Semmelweis Reflex” and it’s posted at the association’s internet site here:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/382?idioma=2

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

END

Why you should join GATA in New Orleans
(Brien Lundin/GATA)

What else could you possibly need to join GATA in New Orleans?

 Section: 

12:12p ET Sunday, September 29, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Wars and rumors of wars, negative interest rates, official clamor for currency devaluation, indictments of investment bank crooks, turbulent markets, expert analysis of investment opportunities, and oysters prepared a dozen ways — what else could you possibly need to attend this year’s New Orleans Investment Conference?

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer will be speaking there and we’d like to see you, especially since if you register using the link at the bottom of this dispatch, the conference generously will make a contribution to GATA

In the letter below the conference’s organizer, Gold Newsletter Editor Brien Lundin, gives many more reasons why you should join GATA there.

The New Orleans Investment Conference is probably the most serious financial conference in the United States, even as it is held in what may be the country’s most fun and interesting city. Because of the conference, your secretary/treasurer has been there many times and always looks forward to returning for the beauty, history, food, and atmosphere of the place.

Indeed, the city itself competes heavily with the conference for your attention, so if you’re able, it’s good to give yourself an extra couple of days there.

The New Orleans conference has a long history of concentration on the monetary metals, and now that infinite money and devaluation have broken out among central banks and the monetary metals are on the verge of regaining their rightful places in the world financial system, this year more than ever New Orleans will be where gold and silver investors will want to be.

Registration for the conference entails a substantial expense, but as Brien explains below, if you register quickly you’ll enjoy a serious discount along with extra services at no extra cost and a money-back guarantee in case you don’t profit from attending.

Additionally, if you register using the internet link at the bottom of Brien’s letter, the conference will kindly pay a commission to GATA, which will diminish our fundraising appeals in the future.

So please consider joining us in New Orleans.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

The Only Certain Investment
in an Uncertain World

By Brien Lundin
New Orleans Investment Conference
Monday, August 5, 2019

I’m going to hand you the keys to preserving everything you’ve worked for during the turmoil just ahead — to potentially multiplying your wealth during this oncoming crisis and essentially giving you $400 to accept this vital information.

You see, for well over four decades — through some of the most turbulent and dangerous times in investing — there has been no better place to find profits and safety than the legendary New Orleans Investment Conference.

And here’s even better news: This year’s New Orleans Conference is destined to be one of the most rewarding in its 45-year history.

Why? Because while most investors are being whipsawed by President Trump’s tweets and Federal Reserve tea leaves, those coming to New Orleans will get the inside track on a few irreversible trends that will create fortunes.

Let’s take a look at them.

Gold: “Easy money forever” means much higher prices.

The New Orleans Conference has led more investors to profits in gold than any other event in the world.

In fact, our organization was instrumental in getting gold ownership legalized in 1974, and our first conference was specifically held to teach investors how to buy the metal.

Today finds central bankers locked into an “easy money forever” mode that is extremely bullish for gold.

This is no idle speculation: The Fed has completely switched from raising rates to cutting rates.

This will propel metals prices much higher — so we’re once again bringing the world’s most successful gold experts to New Orleans.

You’ll get the top strategies and picks of Rick Rule, Peter Schiff, Brien Lundin, Adrian Day, Brent Cook, Byron King, GATA’s Bill Murphy and Chris Powell, Gerardo Del Real, Gwen Preston, Lobo Tiggre, Thom Calandra, Omar Ayales, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Dana Samuelson, and more.

Geo-political and market trends that could make or break you.

From Lady Margaret Thatcher to Ayn Rand to Henry Kissinger to Milton Friedman to Alan Greenspan to Ron Paul and more, the New Orleans Conference has a long history of attracting insightful and even legendary figures on the geopolitical and economic stages.

This year is no exception as we’re bringing in Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore, controversial political commentator Kevin D. Williamson, famed contrarian Doug Casey, Fed expert Danielle DiMartino Booth, respected contrarian advisor Peter Boockvar, popular trading authority Dennis Gartman, plus renowned experts like Adrian Day, Mike Larson, Mark Skousen, Robert Prechter, Steven Hochberg. and more.

Green fever in cannabis.

Fortunes are being made right now in the booming cannabis sector, but many investors are wondering how to get involved — and how to avoid the inevitable busts in this quickly evolving industry.

Have no fear, as New Orleans 2019 is featuring the experts who are finding the biggest winners, including Sean Brodrick of Marijuana Millionaires, Matt Carr of the Oxford Club, and Nick Hodge of the Outsider Club.

They’ll not only show you the specific cannabis subsectors that will be the long-term winners, but they’ll also reveal their hottest picks in this red-hot arena.

The future is now: Artificial intelligence, energy metals, fintech, and other juggernaut trends.

Artificial intelligence, the electrification of transportation, new battery technology, blockchain, crypto, clean energy, e-sports, income-producing real estate, medtech, streaming media, 5G, and more — these are creating huge opportunities for investors who can stay on the cutting edge.

Have no fear: Technology financier Ross Gerber, plus the world’s leading energy metals expert, Simon Moores and the Oxford Club’s tech expert, Matt Carr, will explore all these powerful trends at New Orleans 2019.

With Russ Gray and Robert Helms (the acclaimed “Real Estate Guys”), Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity, and Nick Hodge running our inaugural “Next Big Thing(s)” panel, you’ll get insights into key opportunities that can both make fortunes and protect them.

Our quadruple-your-money guarantee — plus a $400 discount.

We will refund your entire registration fee if you find the conference doesn’t provide profits more than quadruple your cost to attend over the first six months following the event.

You can’t lose.

Correction: You can lose — if you don’t act immediately to secure your place at New Orleans 2019.

But here’s the problem: Our registration fee is about to soar, and at some point we’ll likely completely sell out.

The good news: If you register right now, you’ll save up to $400 from our full rate.

Not only that, you’ll also qualify for a free Gold Club upgrade.

Gold Club status gives you free coffee service throughout the day, an exclusive viewing area just for you, intimate Q&A sessions with many of our most popular speakers, free reports, and more.

It sells for $189, but if you register now you’ll get it for no extra charge at all.

All of this is guaranteed only if you register during this special offer period.

In the days ahead hundreds of thousands of investors will discover how exciting and valuable this year’s New Orleans Conference will be.

I can’t guarantee that any of these discounts, guarantees, or free benefits — or even a hotel room — will be available for much longer.

So if you hope to get in at the current early-bird rate and enjoy our quadruple-your-money-or-it’s-free guarantee and free Gold Club status, you’ll need to call us at 1-800-648-8411 or click on the link below to learn more and register now.

Please don’t delay. I look forward to seeing you down here in New Orleans!

All the best,

Brien Lundin
Editor, Gold Newsletter
CEO, New Orleans Investment Conference

To learn more or register, call toll-free 800-648-8411 or visit:

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

iii) Other physical stories:

A picture is worth  a 1000 words: no other explanation necessary!!

One glance at the last few years and the gold price action should not be a huge surprise…

Source: Bloomberg

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1426/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1414   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 26.98 POINTS OR 0.92%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 137.46 POINTS OR 0.53%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 123.06 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.27/Euro FALLS TO 1.0914

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.21/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.96/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.34 and Brent: 60.63

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.57%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.83% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.16%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.40: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.35

3k Gold at $1485.00 silver at: 17.16   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.90

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.96 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9961 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0850 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.57%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.70% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.15%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6457..

Futures Jump As Markets Downplay Risk Of US-China Trade War Escalation

Unlike last week, when every day was marked by either full-on trade deal euphoria or, as was the case on Friday afternoon, despair amid speculation of trade war escalation, overnight markets were relatively muted and fluctuated in Europe while US equity futures jumped as the lack of explicitly negative trade war news was interpreted as good news. Indeed, investors generally shrugged off reports that Washington is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges, with traders downplaying the likelihood of such radical escalation of the U.S.-China trade war.

Bloomberg reported that President Trump was looking at a broader effort to limit U.S. investment in Chinese companies, although Treasury officials denied that this was being considered “at this time“, and it remained unclear how any such delisiting would work. As a result, MSCI’s world equity index, was little changed, down 0.1%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan also slipped just 0.1%. Some optimism crept into European markets with the Stoxx 600 turning positive, ekeing out a 0.1% gain after opening lower. Markets in Frankfurt, Paris and London were flat.

In the US, futures on all main indexes pointed to a green open, and the dollar spiked higher after the U.S. issued a partial denial that it was discussing new limits on Chinese access to American finance.  The concern around the latest Sino-U.S. tensions had caused U.S. stocks to fall on Friday, with the Nasdaq losing 1%. The news also knocked Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges on Friday. Alibaba Group and JD.com both lost 5% to 6% on Friday.

 

Earlier in the session, Chinese equities slumped almost 1% in the final session before a week-long holiday even though both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs beat expectations: the NBS manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8 in September and the Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4. Financial markets and offices in Taipei closed Monday due to the approach of Typhoon Mitag.

“This is better than what the market was expecting,” said Alessia Berardi, senior economist at Amundi Pioneer, adding that markets were downplaying the likelihood of a major escalation in the trade war by Washington. “The probability of implementing the (delisting) decision for the market is still quite low,” she said.

Overall Asian stocks dropped for a second day, led by utility and health care firms, as Washington’s potential move to restrict U.S. fund flows to Chinese firms dented risk sentiment. Most markets in the region were down, with Japan leading declines and South Korea advancing. The Topix fell 1%, with automakers and pharmaceutical firms among the biggest drags, as Japan’s factory production dropped in August amid a global slowdown. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.9%, driven by Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance Group. Chinese markets will trade only on Monday before a week-long holiday that marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

China pledged to continue opening up its financial markets and encourage foreign investment ahead of trade talks with the U.S. India’s Sensex declined 0.5%, as ICICI Bank and Housing Development Finance weighed on the gauge. Indiabulls Housing Finance plunged as much as 38% after the Indian central bank placed curbs on a lender it plans to acquire.

China warned on Monday of instability in international markets from any “decoupling” of China and the United States following the reports, noting a U.S. Treasury response that said there were no immediate plans to block Chinese listings.

Most traders said equity markets thought the threat of delisting was just a tactic before U.S.-China trade talks resume next week. Investors are accustomed to belligerence from Trump before he dials down his rhetoric, said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

“It’s a strategy that we have seen in the past – keeping the pressure very high and then settling for whatever deal is possible,” he said. Any progress in talks next month would probably fall short of a comprehensive deal, he added. “It’s more likely than not that there will some kind of agreement that would be more cosmetic in nature.”

Separately, Hong Kong protesters clashed with police for a 17th week with further protests planned for China’s 70th anniversary of Communist rule on Tuesday 1st October. Furthermore, Hong Kong police confirmed an officer fired a live round Sunday near Wan Chai MTR station, according to CNN International Correspondent Will Ripley. Subsequently, China Global Times says Police have received information about Hong Kong protest activity on 1 October creating a highly dangerous situation.

In rates, Treasuries were slightly cheaper across the curve, following wider losses across bunds after ECB President Draghi urged greater public spending in a Financial Times interview; Treasuries were choppy in Asia session while yields edged higher in poor volumes after solid China Caixin PMI print. Bond markets captured the early focus as 10y bund and USTs yields rise 3bp with 10y Aussie yields climbing 8bp to 1.02% ahead of the local session close with no fresh news flow cited for the move. Overall, yield curves bear steepened with the German long-end rising ~3.5bps. Core European bond futures remain around session lows after mixed CPIs readings from the German regions and softer peripheral European data although spreads tighten to core. Gilts and short sterling brush off domestic 2Q GDP data.

In geopolitics, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman said the attacks on the Saudi oil facilities were an act of war by Iran, hopes military response will not be necessary as a political solution is “much better”. MBS also called on US President Trump to meet with Iranian President Rouhani to craft a new deal. Iranian Government Spokesman notes that they are prepared for a dialogue with Saudi Arabia if they alter their behavior and stop a war in Yemen; follows news of Iranian President Rouhani receiving a letter from Saudi Arabia.

In FX, the Kiwi was the stark underperformer, tumbling to its weakest level in four years Monday following dismal overnight confidence data, while GBPUSD edged back above 1.2300. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was set to end this quarter stronger than all of its G-10 peers, with the Japanese yen seeing the smallest declines and the New Zealand dollar the largest.

In commodities, crude futures drift lower, Iron ore and nickel lead gains in the metals complex while Palladium rises above a record $1,700 an ounce

Expected data include MNI Chicago Business Barometer. Thor Industries is reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,974.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.01% to 391.81
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 156.37
  • MXAPJ down 0.1% to 501.35
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 21,755.84
  • Topix down 1% to 1,587.80
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 26,092.27
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,905.19
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 38,529.84
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,688.35
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,063.05
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to -0.556%
  • Euro down 0.05% to $1.0934
  • Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 0.486%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.163%
  • Brent futures down 1.6% to $60.94/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,487.53
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 99.21

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Trump administration has issued a partial — and qualified – – denial to the revelation that it is discussing imposing limits on U.S. investments in Chinese companies and financial markets as China vowed to continue opening its markets to foreign investment
  • Johnson hoped to use his Conservative Party’s annual convention to launch his campaign to win the next British general election. Instead, he is fighting for his credibility as prime minister as he faces allegations of sexual impropriety and plots to oust him. To add to that the opposition Labour Party has demanded an investigation into alleged potential conflicts of interest
  • The U.K. economy experienced major distortions in the second quarter after firms stockpiled goods in the run-up to the original March 29 Brexit deadline, figures published Monday show. The Office for National Statistics confirmed the economy shrank 0.2% between April and June. It was the first quarterly contraction for seven years
  • British businesses are getting increasingly gloomy about the economy as Brexit approaches, according to the Lloyds Business Barometer. A measure of optimism in September fell to its lowest since the immediate aftermath of the 2016 referendum, and concerns about Brexit intensified. A negative impact from Brexit is expected by 43% of businesses now, up from 39%
  • Germany’s labor market unexpectedly improved this month, easing concerns that the economy is sliding into recession. The number of people out of work decreased by 10,000 to 2.276 million in September, the first drop in five months. The unemployment rate was at 5%, near a record low.

Asian equities showed a mixed performance after a negative lead from Wall Street in which major bourses fell deeper into the red amid reports which suggested that the White House is mulling limits on portfolio flows into China, albeit a US Treasury official later noted that there are no current plans regarding market access. ASX 200 (-0.4%) turned green as Nufarm shares rose in excess of 25% after the Co. reported an increase in revenue alongside the sale of its South American unit to Sumitomo. Meanwhile, Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) was subdued throughout the session as heavyweight Softbank fell over 2% amid the ongoing concerns surrounding WeWork after CEO Neumann left his position following the failed IPO. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.5%) nursed the initial losses which emanated from continuing disarray in Hong Kong as protesters clash with police for yet another week, with further protests planned for China’s 70th anniversary of Communist rule tomorrow. Losses in Hong Kong later pared amid gains in large-cap energy names and as AB InBev’s Budweiser APAC soared over 5% at its debut today, which was seen as a litmus test for the IPO environment in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, Shanghai Comp (-0.9%) received a short-lived boost after the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing metric beat (see below from RANsquawk analysis). Furthermore, the PBoC skipped open market operations today which resulted in a modest net daily drain of CNY 20bln ahead of the Mainland’s absence for the remainder of the week due to the National Week Holiday.

Top Asian News

  • China Factory Outlook Improves in September Ahead of U.S. Talks
  • BOJ Paves Way to Buy Fewer Bonds in October to Steepen Curve
  • Japan Nuclear Scandal Deepens as Payoff Timelines Widen
  • ‘Frightening’ Thai Baht Surge Hurts Tourism, Industry Body Says

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%) are mostly higher, but consolidating within recent ranges ahead of this week’s slate of important macroeconomic data releases, following a mixed AsiaPac session, in which sentiment was initially downbeat on recent negative US/China trade reports that the US was mulling China portfolio flows limits and the delisting of Chinese stocks from US exchanges; although there are no current plans to do so according to a Treasury Official. The sectors are mixed and unreflective of any definitive risk tone. In terms of individual movers; GlaxoSmithKline (+1.0%) are up on the news that the Co’s Phase 3 PRIMA trial for Zejula is the first study which illustrated a significant benefit, which, according to GSK, justifies the earlier acquisition of Tesaro for approximately USD 4.1bln. Saint Gobain (+2.4%) caught a bid on reports that the Co. announced the sale of their construction glass business in Korea. Separately, Ab InBev (-0.2%) are lower, despite the co’s APAC Budweiser unit opening at HKD 27.40/shr, which is above the initial IPO price of HKD 27.0/shr, before extending gains to over 28.0/shr. Elsewhere, BBVA (+1.0%) is higher on the news that the bank may sell EUR 5bln of bad loans to Deutsche Bank (+0.4%). Finally, Whitbread (-5.1%) is under pressure after being downgraded at Barclays.

Top European News

  • Funcom Surges as Gaming Giant Tencent Purchases 29% Stake
  • KPN Drops After It Cancels Hiring of Proximus’s Leroy as CEO
  • Microsoft’s Largest Reseller SoftwareONE Plans Swiss IPO
  • Lagarde Inherits ECB Tinged by Bitterness of Draghi Stimulus

In FX, NZD/GBP – Contrasting fortunes for the Kiwi and Pound at the start of the final session of September and Q3, as the former props up the G10 table in wake of a downbeat NBNZ business survey, but the latter shrugs off broadly soft UK data and outperforms in corrective trade following recent weakness. Nzd/Usd is hovering near the base of a 0.6303-0.6250 range, while Cable reclaims 1.2300+ status and Sterling also recoups losses vs the Euro after a test of resistance at 0.8900, but no clean break and a subsequent cross reversal down towards 0.8865. However, the Gbp is on tenterhooks awaiting further political developments and latest moves by opposition party Remainers to request another Brextension rather than risk a no deal departure on October 31.

  • NOK/SEK – Marginal divergence between the Scandi Crowns as in line Norwegian retail sales keeps Eur/Nok rooted towards the bottom of 9.9450-9.9180 parameters in contrast to Eur/Sek that is nudging 10.7350 compared to lows of around 10.7060 following recent disappointing Swedish consumption and consumer sentiment reads.
  • JPY/CAD/EUR/AUD/CHF – All weaker against a generally firm Greenback, as the DXY holds above 99.000 in a relatively narrow 99.047-216 range, with the Yen paring gains between 107.75-108.00 and flanked by decent option expiries at 107.50 (1.5 bn) and 108.00-05 (1.2 bn), while the Loonie meanders from 1.3225-47 ahead of Canadian PPI data. Elsewhere, the single currency has faded into 1.0950 amidst soft Eurozone inflation updates from Germany’s states and Spain, but Eur/Usd may derive underlying support from a hefty expiry at the 1.0900 strike (2.3 bn) and the fact that the big figure fended off several attempts to the downside last week. Similarly, the Aussie is keeping afloat around 0.6750 and within 1.0740-1.0800 extremes vs its Antipodean rival on the back of a better than expected Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI and with the jury out on tomorrow’s RBA policy verdict (full preview available in the Research Suite), but the Franc is lagging across the board after a marked decline in the Swiss KOF indicator and downward revision to the previous print. Usd/Chf currently just shy of 0.9950 and Eur/Chf is straddling 1.0850 with latest weekly sight deposits suggesting more intervention.
  • EM – Bucking the broad trend of losses vs the Dollar, Turkey’s Lira has climbed over 5.6500 after trade data showing a smaller deficit and typically upbeat comments/forecasts from the Finance Minister, bar a sharp downgrade to 2019 GDP.

In commodities, crude futures are lower, but well within recent ranges, as the market mostly shrugs off recent news flow; Russian oil output for the month of September is lower than in August, according to sources, at 11.24mln BDP (vs 11.29mln BDP). Additionally, following last Friday’s reports of Saudi Arabia agreeing to a partial ceasefire in Yemen, the Iran backed Yemeni Houthis reportedly offered to release 350 prisoners, 3 of whom are Saudis. Separately, an Iranian Government Spokesman said that they are prepared for a dialogue with Saudi Arabia if they alter their behaviour and stop the war in Yemen, following reports that Iranian President Rouhani had received a letter from Saudi Arabia. Spot Gold is lower, in line with the modestly better risk tone, and is back below the USD 1500/oz mark, an area which has been a solid base since mid-August. Separately, Copper prices are higher, after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing surprised to the upside, easing demand concerns in the red metals biggest market, although some of the forward-looking sub-components were more disappointing

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 50, prior 50.4
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 1, prior 2.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A happy wet Monday to you all. Last week we briefly mentioned how the Opposition party here in the U.K. outlined plans for a 4-day work week within a decade. To be honest after the weekend I’ve had ferrying children to parties and having to endure rolling crying tantrums between them, at the moment I would happily vote for a party who suggested a 7-day working week.

The first day of this working week, and the last of Q3, sees us go straight to Asia where Chinese markets have only today (due to holidays for the rest of the week) to digest Friday’s news that the US are considering limiting portfolio flows into China and their companies. The Bloomberg story suggested the options Mr Trump’s team are considering include delisting Chinese companies on US exchanges, limiting US government pension fund exposure to China and even limiting private US investment firm’s access. On Friday the US shares of Alibaba lost -5.2%, JD.com fell c.6% and Baidu down -3.7%. So a big story but the article didn’t suggest that the debate is particularly advanced so a difficult one to price at the moment. If you took it to it’s most negative you’d have to point out the amount of US Treasuries that China hold and the impact that any retaliation might have. A fair amount of water will need to flow under the bridge before we get there though.

Maybe conscious of the impact on the Asian open and follow through to the rest of global markets, a US Treasury spokesman made an emailed statement on Saturday that read that “The administration is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on US stock exchanges at this time”.

This statement has probably calmed the Asian session with bourses trading a lot better than feared on Friday night. The Nikkei (-0.55%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.40%) are still lower but the Hang Seng (+0.52%) and Kospi (+0.38) are up. Elsewhere futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.37% and 10y JGB yields are up +1.8bps to -0.230%.

Overnight, we’ve seen China’s official September PMIs with manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.8 (vs. 49.6 expected), marking the fifth continuous month of contraction while the services PMI came in at 53.7 (vs. 53.9 expected) bringing the composite PMI to 53.1 (vs. 53.0 last month). In terms of underlying details, the new orders component of the manufacturing reading printed at 50.5 (vs. 49.7 last month), marking the first above 50 reading since April while the new export orders component also improved to 48.2 from 47.2 last month. Separately, China’s September Caixin manufacturing PMI stood at 51.4 (vs. 50.2 expected), the highest reading since February 2018. In terms of other overnight data releases, Japan’s August retail sales came in at +2.0% yoy (vs. +0.7% yoy expected) and the preliminary August industrial production stood at -1.2% mom (vs. -0.5% mom expected).

Elsewhere the FT has an an exclusive interview with Mr Draghi this morning as he nears the end of his tenure. The key section is a direct quote where he says that “I (have) talked about fiscal policy as a necessary complement to monetary policy since 2014. Now the need is more urgent than before. Monetary policy will continue to do its job but the negative side effects as you move forward are more and more visible.” He then added, “Have we done enough? Yes, we have done enough — and we can do more. But more to the point what is missing? The answer is fiscal policy, that’s the big difference between Europe and the US.” He also said a long term commitment to a fiscal union was essential for Europe to compete.

Talking of fiscal, new Italian Finance Minister Roberto Gualtieri said that the government will use “all the flexibility available” with the country’s finances and plans “a slight expansion in order to reconcile the balance of public finances and the credibility of our commitment to cut debt,” while adding that any tightening “would have a negative effect on the economy.” On the deficit target, Gualtieri hinted that the number for 2020 would be between this year’s original goal of 2.4% and the revised target of 2.04%. Elsewhere, Ansa reported that the cabinet will present a framework for the budget after a meeting scheduled at 6:30 pm local time today. The deadline for submitting the draft budget to Brussels is October 15. So one to watch.

Market action on Friday was dominated by the US-China capital controls story. The negative impact of that news offset the earlier, positive impact of optimistic comments from President Trump and other officials on the scope for a near-term trade deal. The S&P 500 ultimately closed -1.01% lower on the week (-0.52% on Friday), while the DOW fell only -0.43% (-0.26% Friday) and the NASDAQ dropped -2.19% (-1.13% Friday). The former outperformed due to its greater exposure to bank stocks, which ended +0.26% higher on the week (+1.03% Friday), while the latter was dragged down by its exposure to China trade. Despite the seesawing moves, the VIX only rose +1.9pts on the week (+1.2pts Friday) to 17.3.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell a more modest -0.30% (+0.47% Friday), though it had already closed before the selloff in the US session. Bonds rallied across Europe, with the biggest driver being the poor PMI data last Monday which showed the German manufacturing sector reading falling to 41.4, its worst reading in around a decade. Bund yields fell -5.2bps (+0.9bps Friday), while OATs and BTPs rallied -5.9bps (+0.7bps Friday) and -9.8bps (flat on Friday), respectively. The five year-five year inflation swap rate fell below its pre-ECB level at 1.18%, down -6.7bps on the week (-1.2bps Friday) and is now just 5bps away from its all-time low just after Draghi’s Sintra speech in June. In the US, the curve steepened slightly as the front-end rallied more than the long-end, with 2- and 10-year yields down -5.4bps and -4.3bps (-2.6bps and -1.4bps Friday) respectively.

There’s plenty to look forward to this week with the rest of the global PMIs/ISM (manufacturing tomorrow, services Thursday) pretty important before US payrolls at the end of the week. The flash numbers showed a worrying deterioration in services in Europe after months of holding up well in the face of big declines in manufacturing so the final reading will help show more about this trend. Tomorrow sees China celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, which will see financial markets closed until October 7. The start of the event will also see a major speech from President Xi Jinping. It’ll be interesting to hear the tone and the substance. In the UK, the Conservative Party Conference is currently taking place until Wednesday, with PM Johnson giving his first conference speech as party leader on the final day unless it’s brought forward by events overtaking them in Parliament. On Friday the government suggested they would outline firm legal proposals for a Brexit deal in days after the conference. So we could know more about that by the end of the week. The PM may also face a vote of no confidence this week if press stories are to be believed. So a busy week in U.K. politics awaits.

Finally it’s a busy week for Fed-speak with all but three of the seventeen principals speaking, including all five Governors and nine of twelve regional Fed Presidents. For more on these see DB’s Brett Ryan’s preview of the US week ahead here.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.98 POINTS OR 0.92%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 137.46 POINTS OR 0.53%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 123.06 POINTS OR 0.56%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .34%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1426 /Oil DOWN TO 55.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1426 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1414 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Green shoots in China’s mfg sector? Most likely the data is fudged

(zerohedge)

Green Shoots: China’s Caixin Mfg PMI Expands Fastest In 19 Months, But Doubts Remain

What a coincidence: economic green shoots appeared in China just in time for the start of the country’s National Day and Golden Week holidays, as both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs rose in September.

Specifically, the NBS manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8 in September and the Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, with both readings coming in above expectations. Sub-indexes in the two surveys all pointed to stronger production, new orders and higher price pressures in the manufacturing sector. In contrast, the NBS non-manufacturing PMI edged down 0.1pp on the back of a weaker construction PMI.

China’s Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, published on Monday, and which unlike the official PMI is a measurement of economic activity at smaller, privately-owned companies, showed China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in 19 months in Sept., with a reading of 51.4, up from 50.4 in Aug., the highest level since early 2018.

And while China’s official manufacturing PMI contracted for a fifth month in Sept, amid the ongoing threats of a China-US trade war, it printed slightly higher to 49.8, from 49.5 in Aug., if still below the 50-level that separates it from contraction and expansion.

While there are conflicting signals of an economic rebound in China, and goalseeked number meant for political consumption will hardly change the narrative, manufacturers continue to deal with slowing domestic growth and an escalating trade war that has slowed global trade volumes. Trade talks between Washington and Beijing are expected to resume next week despite President Trump consideration to delist Chinese firms from US markets.

Meanwhile, economists don’t expect the slight manufacturing rebound in China to sustain into late year, but rather turn back down.

“We believe the official manufacturing PMI may decline again, the growth slowdown could gather pace and (financial)markets could become more volatile in coming months,” economists at Nomura said.

To be sure, Nomura revised its 3Q19 growth forecast for China to 5.9% and its 4Q19 view to 5.8%, decreasing from the 6.2% forecast in 2Q19. The note cited escalating trade war, slowing industrial production, waning real estate markets, and a construction slowdown.

Others were just as skeptical, with analysts at Citi saying that “even if there is a ceasefire, the damage is already partly done because of elevated business uncertainties. The government will certainly step up fiscal and monetary efforts to boost domestic demand, which we believe can help stabilize, probably not accelerate, economic growth.”

A look below the headline numbers showed that export demand remained weak, with orders sliding for the 16th straight month, an ominous sign for China’s export-heavy economy.

China’s manufacturing PMIs followed a weak industrial production print that hit 17.5-year lows last month, while factory deflation deepened.

Martin Lynge Rasmussen, a China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note that “China’s fiscal stance is unlikely to be loosened during the remainder of the year, we think the PBOC will find it an increasingly hard sell to refrain from more decisive monetary easing.”

To boost the economy, the PBOC lowered banks’ reserve requirements seven times since 2018 to spark more credit creation. China has cut its new benchmark lending rate for the second month in a row. However, economists warn that monetary policy easing in a downturn might not be as effective as before, considering China’s record debt levels, especially in the real estate market.

Furthermore, while Beijing was hoping that a strong services sector would counter the manufacturing slowdown, that appears to not be the case, with the non-manufacturing PMI in Sept. printed at 53.7, slightly down from August’s 53.8, although the convergence is so far weaker than in Europe where both the Manufacturing and Service PMIs are almost equal.

While oil dipped as China’s manufacturing, and non-manufacturing surveys remained weak, with no signs of a robust recovery but rather more slowing into the late year, futures rebounded and bond yields rose on the stronger than expected Caixin PMI. Ironically, stock in China traded lower on the PMIs, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite both suffering a late session sell-off, and sliding down about 1%. Chinese shares only traded on Monday, ahead of the country’s National Day celebration that will last through Oct. 7.

China’s Yuan weakened from 7.12 to 7.14 after the PMI print. It jumped on Friday from 7.11 to 7.15 after President Trump announced new plans to delist Chinese companies from US stock exchanges.

Elsewhere, UST futures slipped on China PMI prints. The JGB curve moved higher ahead of BOJ’s Oct. buying plan announcement, while currencies were little change in the overnight session, with the USDJPY slightly firmer at 107.75.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Boris Johnson seems to be winning in this ugly Brexit war

a must read…

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Brexit “Surrender” Strategy: Winning Ugly

Authored by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk,

Boris Johnson and his political strategist Dominic Cummings have labeled the efforts by Parliament a “Surrender” act…

Surrender Act

Boris Johnson labels the acts of Parliament to stop No Deal a “Surrender Act”.

This is correct, of course.

If you take away the EU’s incentives to negotiate, they are less likely to do so.

It’s not a complete white flag as Johnson has other, albeit undisclosed options, in which he proclaims two seemingly contradictory ideas.

  1. He will abide by the Benn legislation seeking an extension
  2. He will not ask for an extension

Incite Violence

As noted by the Guardian Live blog, Amber Rudd says Boris Johnson’s language ‘Does Incite Violence’

The claim is preposterous.

The Labour MP Jess Phillips says she has received more threats after an incident outside her constituency office on Thursday when a man allegedly tried to smash her windows. She showed Sky News a message that said: “Unless you change your attitude, be afraid, be very afraid.”

The Labour MP David Lammy has criticised the columnist Brendan O’Neill after he said on BBC Politics Live that the delay to Brexit should have sparked riots. It came after the Times quoted an unnamed senior cabinet minister today who warned the country risked a “violent, popular uprising” if a second referendum overturned the result of the first.

Why Violence Picked Up

Violence has picked up, but “surrender” has little to do with it.

Rather, it’s the very nature of this heated campaign, fueled mostly by Remainers, commentators, and even official Labour Party policy that had led to violence.

Scrap Controls on Immigration

Please note Labour to Scrap Controls on Immigration and Hand Foreign Nationals the Right to Vote

Jeremy Corbyn will scrap controls on immigration and hand foreign nationals the right to vote in future elections and referendums if Labour wins power.

The Labour leader will head into the next election promising to extend freedom of movement to migrants around the world, along with abolishing detention centres, under plans approved on Wednesday.

Despite Mr Corbyn’s team being privately opposed to the plan, delegates at Labour’s annual conference in Brighton unanimously backed a motion which commits the party to “free movement, equality and rights for migrants”. The motion commits Labour to oppose any future immigration system which includes caps on numbers or targets, and which assesses a migrant’s suitability based on their income or usefulness to businesses.

And it requires Labour to commit to the proposals in its next election manifesto – meaning a complete reversal of its 2017 pledge to end free movement after Brexit.

No Immigration Controls and Voting Rights for Foreigners!

Might not that idea lead to violence?

Which Party Incites Violence?

spiked@spikedonline

Jess Phillips once said she would knife Jeremy Corbyn ‘in the front’. Ed Davey said Remainers should unite to ‘decapitate’ Boris Johnson. John McDonnell still won’t apologise for repeating a joke about ‘lynching’ a Tory MP. These people are hypocrites: https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/26/four-times-remainers-used-toxic-language/ 

Four times Remainers used ‘toxic’ language

Leading Remainers have said far worse things than Boris Johnson has.

spiked-online.com

 

Surrender vs Decapitate

Big Girly Humbug@HumbugMcOutrage

Boris saying “surrender act” encourages violence towards MPs, apparently. Lib-Dems don’t have a problem with an MP wanting to decapitate our Prime Minister, though.

View image on Twitter

Which side, if you had to pick one, is inciting violence?

This isn’t close. Let’s move on to Eurointelligence, emphasis mine.

Eurointelligence Comments

  • Boris Johnson’s aggression and his use of the term surrender act are deliberate strategic choices, based on intensive polls;
  • The latest polls show him widening the lead over Labour and managing to fend off the Brexit Party;
  • We argue that the strategy is ugly, but it is working;

What is widely underestimated is the sheer unpopularity of the Brexit extensions. We recalled a Tory MP telling us in June that they had underestimated the electoral effect of the April extension, which resulted in the victory of the Brexit Party at the European elections.

Experience has taught not to predict elections, and certainly not elections that have not even been scheduled. But one micro prediction we are happy to make is that the person who extends will not be elected in a general election. That person might well be Jeremy Corbyn. If there ever were a government of national unity, it would be under his leadership. We don’t want to discount that possibility completely, but we don’t think that Labour would do itself any favours by forcing a Brexit extension followed immediately by an election. Just as we don’t think the Tories would do themselves any favours with a no-deal Brexit followed immediately by an election.

Boris Johnson’s bulldozing strategy is not pretty, but it is working. His repeated use of the term surrender bill strikes a cord not only with core Tory voters, but with many people in the country. Steven Swinford of the Times tells us that the Tories have done a lot of polling on this specific term, and they have come to the conclusion that it damages the Labour Party. We are reminded of the late 1980s, when it was Labour Party that used the damaging term of a poll tax to describe what was officially known as the community charge. It was the poll tax that sank Margaret Thatcher’s government – not her position on Europe.
The YouGov poll, with polling done on Sep 25, shows the Conservatives at 33% and LibDems and Labour both at 22%. This would translate into 348 seats for the Tories which is an absolute majority of 30, 163 for Labour and 77 for the LibDems. The Brexit Party scores 14% but does not get a single seat.

What one needs to understand about this and other polls is the interplay of two conflicting dynamics. On the pro-Brexit side the Tories are competing with the Brexit Party. The pro-Remain vote is split between Labour and the LibDems. Johnson is managing to squeeze out the Brexit Party more than Labour is managing to squeeze out the LibDems.

It is best to understand the relation between percentage votes and seats in the UK in terms of thresholds. For the LibDems to get more seats than Labour, they would need to poll a lot more than 22%. At 14%, the Brexit Party’s potential to deprive the Tories of seats is limited only to a few marginals. But, once they get above 20%, they would become as dangerous to the Tories as the LibDems are to Labour.

Next week, the Tories will hold their party conference in Manchester despite the vote in the Commons against a customary recess. We expect another rabble-rousing performance by Johnson. Since he became leader, the party’s fundraising has skyrocketed. September was their best month ever. There is a lot of support for him from business.

Neither Careless Nor Casual

Similarly the Guardian reports PM’s divisive ‘surrender bill’ phrase is neither careless nor casual.

Part of the fury among MPs about Boris Johnson’s inflammatory rhetoric is that it appears to be a deliberate, election-driven strategy.

But the situation is made worse by the suspicion that it is neither careless nor casual – but rather a concerted effort to whip up anger in the country against MPs in order to motivate pro-Brexit voters to back him at the polls.

Johnson’s language about a “surrender bill” is calculated to cast his opponents as people colluding with foreign powers to block Brexit. It was not a flippant, one-off comment, as the prime minister has used the words at least eight times in the House of Commons. He also told Conservative MPs that he was determined to continue using those words.

This is the hallmark of Dominic Cummings, the former Vote Leave architect who is now Johnson’s most senior adviser. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, has also highlighted its similarities with the language of rightwing populist demagogues such as Donald Trump. “He is whipping up division with language that’s indistinguishable from the far right,” the Labour leader said in his conference speech this week.

Accurate Assessment

Indeed the language is neither careless, nor casual.

Rather, the language is an accurate assessment of the matter.

If you remove the strongest negotiation tactic someone has, the other side is less likely to negotiate.

Period.

There is no rebuttal. Surrender is the correct word.

Which is of course why the Remainers at the Guardian do not like it.

Order of the Privy Council

Sir John Major says he believes he knows how Johnson circumvent the Benn legislation.

Major cites yet another arcane procedure called the “Order of the Privy Council.”

There is a difference between “Orders in Council” and “Orders of Council”. It’s not worth the time it would take to understand the difference.

The key point is Orders of the Privy Council are normally unimportant procedural things about which there is no genuine debate.

I do not believe Johnson would ever attempt to use such a process as it would immediately be challenged and reversed in court.

Even sillier is the process Major proposes to circumvent an Order of the Privy council, send a letter to the EU from UK civil servants.

With background information out of the way, let’s return to Eurointelligence.

BBC Newsnight last night reported that the European Council was plotting to accept a Brexit extension letter from a civil servant formally before the summit Oct 17. The idea is to avoid a situation where it is confronted by conflicting information at the council meeting itself – for example if Johnson were to distance himself from the [Benn] letter in the meeting itself.

We think this information is probably correct in the sense that it reflects either the position of Donald Tusk or that of some other pro-Remain politicians. We do not believe that the European Council as a whole has formed a view on this issue. It would be a big deal for the European Council to act in this manner. We don’t exclude the possibility, but this is not to be done lightly.

We think it is quite plausible that this strategy [an Order of the Privy Council] may have been discussed at some point, but we doubt this is the main strategy. We noted one official denial describing the idea as too-clever-by-half, an expression we would agree with. It is likely to fail for the same reason that prorogation did. If the Supreme Court were to decide that this order was given for political reasons – to frustrate another bill – it too might be judged to be null and void. But we cannot rule out that it might be attempted, if only to demonstrate to the public that Johnson is really trying everything in his power to deliver Brexit. Each court case strengthens the people-vs-establishment narrative.

And Johnson may also prorogue parliament again, for a period of five to six days only to make way for a Queen’s speech. We don’t think that any combination of these various ruses would get him over the line to deliver a no-deal Brexit. But as we wrote before, we should be focusing on the politics more than on procedure. It would be a grave misjudgement for the European Council to be seen as part of a plot with Remainers in the UK parliament. Such a plot would drive a lot of moderate Remainers and fence-sitters into the Brexit camp. If Johnson were elected with an absolute majority, he would no doubt come back with a do-or-die commitment for January 31.

Winning Ugly

Johnson would likely appeal any letter by civil servants to the EU as being illegal. He would also appeal to the UK supreme court.

He only needs to win one of them. I believe he would easily win both.

This is yet another amusing sidelight in which we get to discuss arcane rules and procedures of UK law.

The key overall point is whether or not the “Surrender” campaign is working. I believe it is.

Let’s return to a key idea that was easy to miss: “Tory fundraising has skyrocketed. September was their best month ever. There is a lot of support for him from business.”

Brexit may be ugly, but Corbyn is even uglier.

One of Corbyn’s proposals is to require businesses to give 10% of their shares to workers. Corbyn also wants to renationalize rail, water, energy and Royal Mail, increase corporation tax and the minimum wage, and extend workers’ rights.

For details, please see Forced Distribution: Labour Proposes Workers to Get 10% of Shares

Businesses may not want a hard Brexit, but they want Corbyn even less!

end
Tom Luongo’s take on the Brexit affair.  I would put my money on Mish Shedlock
(courtesy Tom Luongo)

It’s A Numbers Game In The Coup To Stop Johnson And Brexit

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

I told you the other day that there was a coup underway by the elites I call The Davos Crowd. It started with the British Supreme Court overturning centuries of the balance of powers and ended with the Democrats in Congress announcing impeachment proceedings against President Trump.

When the decision came down from the Supreme Court I began my weekly article for Strategic Culture Foundation. In that piece I outline what the dynamics are and what the options were for both sides of the Brexit conundrum.

So, now with this ruling in place what’s next and what’s really going on tactically and strategically?

Johnson, for his part, refuses to resign. He can’t or won’t get anything past this hostile Parliament. This Parliament will reconvene to push more legislation to attempt to tie his hands against negotiating with the EU from any position of strength.

Remember what made this ruling necessary. Parliament doesn’t want any meaningful Brexit and refused to accept Johnson’s offer of a General Election to allow the people to form a new government to break the deadlock.

Why? Because they know that a new Parliament would be decidedly more Leave than Remain. The polls are perfectly clear on this. Neither Jo Swinson of the Liberal Democrats nor Jeremy Corbyn of Labour have a prayer in hell of becoming Prime Minister.

If they did, they would have accepted Johnson’s offer. In fact, his offer was derided as a cheap political trick.

If Johnson were to resign here, he would be replaced by a caretaker government under Corbyn, most likely, which would then table a Second Referendum with two versions of Remain on the ballot.

This strategy neatly bypasses the original referendum to ensure the threat to the European Union is nullified.

After the shouting match in Parliament on Tuesday Jeremy Corbyn declined to table a motion of No Confidence. I believe his side of the House was as surprised by Johnson’s refusal to step down as Johnson and crew were taken aback by Corbyn’s refusal of a General Election.

And now that they’ve had a couple of days to think it over, we now know that this is what they are planning to do.

Nicola Sturgeon, the head of the Scottish National Party (SNP) tweeted out:

Nicola Sturgeon

@NicolaSturgeon

Agree with this. VONC, opposition unites around someone for sole purpose of securing an extension, and then immediate General Election. Nothing is risk free but leaving Johnson in post to force through no deal – or even a bad deal – seems like a terrible idea to me. https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1177513391344123904 

Sonia Sodha

@soniasodha

The only failsafe way is ensuring we get an extension if there’s no deal is for opposition parties to pass a vote of no confidence and install Corbyn or someone else as PM.

Furthermore, the Liberal Democrats are talking in public about a coup against Johnson. But they won’t move against him until they “know Jeremy has the numbers.” Every day they delay is another day in which he doesn’t have the numbers.

So, why wouldn’t he?

At least 20 former members of the Conservative Party, when push came to shove, would vote with Labour, the LibDems and the SNP on this. But, the bigger question is how many from their own parties would ‘defy the whip’ and not vote against the Government.

They would ‘defy the whip’ because they are rightly scared of a General Election which would see them booted out of office. But, that said, would they do it? My guess is yes because the pressure on them at this point to betray Brexit is enormous.

The entire British political and social elite want this pesky Brexit bother binned so they can move on with erecting their new, more perfect European Union on the ashes of trivial things like sovereignty and basic human dignity.

Editorial comments aside, here’s the situation as it stands. If the vote happens and Johnson is deposed, they will have 14 days under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act to form a ‘caretaker government.’ If Corbyn ‘has the numbers’ and the agreement from the other parties then this will happen.

It will take All of Labour (247 seats), the SNP (35), the LibDems (18) and at least another 11 MP’s to get this done. And then they have to also agree on what their proposal to the EU is.

Most of Corbyn’s shadow cabinet are with the LibDems and want Article 50 revoked and the whole thing called off. Corbyn doesn’t want that and has only reluctantly been dragged down this course in order to try and preserve some semblance of Brexit, which he does believe in.

What they will offer the EU is the biggest stumbling block to this backroom deal. But, at the final moment, goal-oriented behavior will take over and an agreement will be reached.

After Johnson is gone and Corbyn installed, the Benn bill will come into effect, an extension will be negotiated and a bill for a 2nd referendum will be tabled immediately. Once Corbyn secures a deal with the EU that referendum will happen with two choices, Remain (which shouldn’t be on the ballot) and Corbyn’s deal.

Basically Remain vs. Remain. This will ensure that the most forceful point of the Leave camp, that the 17.4 million people who voted to Leave are being ignored, is neutralized.

I told you, only Hobson’s Choices from here on out for the unwashed, thick and uppity plebes who think they have any other obligation than to be tax cows milked by vampiric oligarchs convinced of their own superiority.

Then they will go for a general election hoping that the Referendum will dispirit British voters to the point of not voting, which will give Remain the win and the General Election will be a moot point. The outcome would likely be a hung Parliament, as the malaise over Brexit betrayed will keep people at home. Parliament will be paralyzed and in no position to negotiate the final terms of surrender to the EU or carry out the next stage of the negotiations.

That’s why the Second Referendum is so important. It gives Remainers all the ammunition to throw back at the Leavers saying, “See the people have spoken!”

It’s vicious and dishonest, but that’s politics, folks.

But all of that is moot if they don’t have the numbers. Then Johnson will continue to run the clock down, go to Brussels on October 17th and try to work for a deal that isn’t BRINO — Brexit in Name Only. That’s why it’s obvious that there will be a coup against Johnson without an election.

The strategy now is to whip MPs into overthrowing Johnson’s government, securing that extension and destroying what’s left of the British political system.

end

Metro bank teeters on bankruptcy after a failed bond sale.  It shares collapsed by 95% from 4,000 pence down to a few pennies

(Courbishley/WolfStreet)

How stupid can they get.  With Salvini out, the Migrants are coming in.  Don’t they learn from what is happening in Sweden
(Kern/Gatestone)

Italy: Salvini Out, Migrants In

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

Italy’s new government, which haspledged to reverse former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini’s hardline approach to migration policy, appears to have triggered a new wave of mass migration from northern Africa.

More than 1,400 migrants reached Italian shores since the new government took office on September 5, according to data compiled by the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

During just the past several weeks, the number of migrant arrivals to Italy has increased incrementally: 59 migrants arrived on September 6; 67 arrived on September 9; 121 arrived on September 14; 259 arrived on September 15; 275 arrived on September 18; and 475 arrived between September 19 and September 25, according to the IOM. Overall, the number of migrant arrivals in September 2019 is up by more than 100% over the number of arrivals in September 2018.

Many of the new arrivals are reaching Italy by using new people-smuggling routes that originate in Turkey. In recent weeks, at least five migrant boats have landed in Calabria, in the far south of Italy. On September 21, for instance, 58 migrants, all Pakistani males, reached the Calabrian port of Crotone.

People-smuggling mafias are also using new routes in the Southern Mediterranean to move people to Italy from sub-Saharan Africa. In recent weeks, criminal groups have used small boats to transport migrants from Libya to Tunisia, from where the crossing to Lampedusa, Italy’s southern-most island, is shorter and less risky. On September 20, for example, 92 migrants from sub-Saharan Africa — Gambia, Ivory Coast, Mali and Senegal — reached Lampedusa.

At the same time, Italy’s new government also appears to be taking a more lenient approach to the migrant rescue ships operated by European charities, which have been accused of coordinating with people-smuggling mafias to pick up migrants off the coast of Libya and transport them to Italian ports.

On September 14, the Italian government authorized the Norwegian-flagged Ocean Viking, operated by the French charities SOS Méditerranée and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), to dock at Lampedusa, where 82 migrants picked up off the coast of Libya were allowed to disembark.

On September 24, the Italian government allowed the Ocean Viking, this time carrying 182 migrants, to dock at the Sicilian port of Messina.

Whereas Salvini had banned migrant rescue ships from docking at Italian ports, the new government’s more lenient approach appears also to be encouraging European non-governmental organizations (NGOs). On September 23, the Spanish NGO Open Arms announced that it would resume migrant rescues on board a vessel called Astral.

In August, Open Arms and its rescue ship of the same name were involved in a three-week stand-off with the Italian government, which refused to allow the vessel to dock in Italian ports. After more than a dozen migrants jumped overboard and tried to swim to shore, Sicilian prosecutor Luigi Patronaggio on August 20 ordered the Open Arms, anchored one kilometer off Lampedusa, to dock in Sicily so that its passengers could disembark. Subsequent video footage showed that Open Arms staged the jumps to manipulate public opinion. Italian authorities later impounded the ship.

The Spanish government vowed to take a harder line against the Open Arms NGO. On August 21, Spain’s acting Deputy Prime Minister Carmen Calvo told Cadena SER radio that the Open Arms did not have a permit to transport migrants and could be fined €900,000 ($1,000,000) for violating a ban on sailing to the seas off Libya. That threat does not appear to have deterred the Open Arms NGO. It now says it will rescue migrants in the Aegean Sea between Greece and Turkey.

NGOs such as Open Arms claim to be playing an invaluable humanitarian role in saving the lives of refugees and asylum seekers fleeing war and oppression in their home countries. Statistics show something else entirely.

Of those who arrived in Italy by sea during the first six months of 2019, 600 (21%) were from Tunisia; 400 (14%) were from Pakistan; 300 (10%) were from Algeria; 300 (10%) were from Iraq; 200 (7%) were from Ivory Coast; 200 (7%) were from Bangladesh; 100 (3.5%) were from Sudan; 100 (3.5%) were from Iran; 100 (3.5%) were from Morocco; and 50 (1.7%) were from Egypt, according to the UNHCR.

The data indicates that most of the migrants arriving in Italy are economic migrants, not refugees fleeing warzones.

In some instances, migrants arriving in Italy are hardcore criminals posing as refugees. On September 26, the Italian newspaper Il Giornale reported that a German migrant rescue ship called Sea Watch 3, which in June rammed an Italian border-control vessel that was trying to stop it from reaching shore, allowed three human traffickers who were posing as refugees to disembark in Lampedusa.

A Guinean, Mohammed Condè, and two Egyptians, Hameda Ahmed and Mahmoud Ashuia, recently were arrested in Messina. They are accused of operating a migrant detention camp in Libya where they allegedly tortured, raped, kidnapped and even murdered migrants from sub-Saharan Africa who were trying to make their way to Europe. Il Giornale reported that the new Italian government had tried to conceal information about the arrests from the general public before the story was leaked to the media.

Meanwhile, the interior ministers of France, Germany, Italy and Malta met on September 23 in the Maltese capital, Valletta, where they agreed to a tentative proposal for shipwrecked migrants to be “voluntarily redistributed” throughout the European Union.

The four-point plan, which will be presented to the interior ministers of all 28 EU member states at a summit in Brussels on October 17-18, is designed to boost Italy’s new government by showing “European solidarity.”

Similar proposals have failed in the past and there is no reason to believe this one will be different, largely because the concept of European solidarity is a myth. So far only six EU states have agreed to migrant redistribution: France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta and Spain.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has insisted that the issue of immigration “must no longer fuel anti-European propaganda.” He has also said that the government’s softer line on illegal immigration is based on “the formula of a new humanism.” He appointed Luciana Lamorgese, a career bureaucrat who has moderate views on immigration, as Italy’s new interior minister. Italian journalist Annalisa Camilli explained the changes:

“Basically, Italy is saying to Europe, we’re breaking with the past policy. It’s a big message that Italy has chosen to come back in line with Germany, France and Spain instead of aligning with [anti-migrant] countries such as Hungary and Poland under the former far-right interior minister Matteo Salvini.”

Salvini has condemned the new government as one “produced by Paris and Berlin, born out of a fear of giving up power, without dignity and without ideals, with the wrong people in the wrong place.”

Salvini has also accused Conte of re-opening the floodgates of mass migration:

“Conte has reopened Italian ports, the migrant landings are increasing for the first time in two years,” he said in an interview with Sky Tg24 television.

He also tweeted: “The new government reopens the ports, Italy is once again the REFUGEE CAMP of Europe. Abusive ministers who hate the Italians.”

Since Salvini announced his hardline immigration policies in June 2018, the number of migrant arrivals to Italy — as well as the number of dead and missing — significantly decreased. The number of arrivals by sea fell from 119,369 in 2017 to 23,370 in 2018, a drop of 80%, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. During that same period, the number of dead and missing fell from 2,873 to 1,311, a decline of more than 50%.

A similar trend has continued in 2019: 2,800 migrants arrived in Italy by sea between January and June of 2019, compared to 16,600 during the same six-month period in 2018 and 83,800 in 2017, according to the UNHCR.

This downward trend clearly reversed immediately after the new government took office in September, as the IOM data show.

The return of mass migration to Italy is likely to push Italian voters to the arms of Salvini, who is now the most trusted politician in Italy, according to a new poll published by the newspaper Il Giornale on September 19. The poll also revealed that Salvini’s League party is now the most popular political party in Italy, and that if elections were held today, Salvini would win by a wide margin.

“The new government will not be able to escape the judgment of Italian voters for too long,” Salvini tweeted.

“We are ready. Time is a gentleman. In the end it is we who will win.”

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Iran Iraq//

Israel is most likely behind the attack Friday night on Iran’s land bridge from Iraq to Syria

(zerohedge)

Israel Believed Behind Overnight Attack On Iran’s ‘Land Bridge’ From Iraq To Syria 

Another mystery airstrike was conducted over Iraq late Friday night, after a summer that’s witnessed Baghdad blame Israel for a series of unprecedented violations of its airspace to carry out alleged strikes on Iran-linked Shia militias in the country.

This newest incident involved an attack on Imam Ali base near the border with Syria, in an area which Israeli defense officials have voiced concern Iran is utilizing Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to aid Syrian forces in establishing a security corridor stretching along the Syrian-Iraq border, or so-called Iranian “land bridge”.

 

IAF file image

Israeli media has taken keen interest in each new ‘mystery’ attack on Iraq of late after last month Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in public comments that he’s been forced to “defend” Israel’s security and “interests” even in faraway Iraq.

The Times of Israel described of the overnight Friday attack:

Unknown aircraft reportedly struck bases belonging to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq close to the Syrian border late Friday night.

The Shiite fighters in the Boukamal region responded with anti-aircraft fire, according to local media. There were no reported casualties.

The area has been hit by several airstrikes in recent weeks that some have attributed to Israel.

Earlier in the week Israeli media featured satellite images released by the private Israeli intelligence company ImageSat International which had revealed extensive construction underway on military compounds along the border. 

ImageSat Intl.@ImageSatIntl

, 1/4 – Despite airstrikes in , , construction still ongoing within “Imam Ali” base and the |ian crossing.

View image on Twitter

Notably the attack came on the same day Iraq announced re-opening of the key al-Qa’im border crossing in Boukamal, which had once been controlled by ISIS.

Should there be proof or confirmation that Israel was indeed behind the overnight airstrikes, it could signal the start of a more aggressive Israeli campaign to ensure pro-Iranian forces can’t establish bases along the Syrian border. Such Israeli operations are likely to receive Washington’s tacit blessing.

Last month The New York Times confirmed that at least some among a spate of airstrikes on Shia militia compounds in and around Baghdad were carried out by Israel.

 

The US and Israel have long sought to thwart establishment of a continuous Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut land bridge.

This after Netanyahu said during an Aug. 30 Facebook campaign live stream event to political supports that “I am doing everything to defend our nation’s security from all directions: in the north facing Lebanon and Hezbollah, in Syria facing Iran and Hezbollah, unfortunately in Iraq as well facing Iran. We are surrounded by radical Islam led by Iran.”

Similar attacks by unknown aircraft (involving either drones or jets) on Western Iraq and the border area came on Sept. 9, 19, and 22 — resulting in dozens of total casualties.

Currently there’s a move in Iraqi parliament to order all American troops in the country expelled, given the widespread accusation the US coalition is turning a blind eye to the intensifying Israeli strikes.

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0914 DOWN .0021 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.96 UP 0.170 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2315   UP   0.0037  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3246 UP .0010 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 21 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0914 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 26.98 POINTS OR 0.92% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 137.46 POINTS OR 0.53%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,34%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT ENGLAND

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT ENGLAND 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 137.46 POINTS OR 0.53%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.98 POINTS OR 0.92%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 34% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 123.06  POINTS OR 0.96%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1483.60

silver:$17.16-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.70% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.15 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 99.27 UP 16 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.16% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.21%  UP 4   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.15%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.82 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 67 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.57% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.39% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0902  DOWN     .0031 or 31 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.09 UP .301 OR YEN UP 30  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2294 UP .0017 POUND UP 17  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 1 basis points to 1.3235

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1483    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1403  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6495 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.21%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.67 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.12 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.15 UP 81  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 9.55  0.23%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 47.14 POINTS OR .38%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 39.21 POINTS 0.66%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 60.50 POINTS or 0.66%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 90.03 POINTS OR 0.41%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.13 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.32 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    64.88  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.20 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 20 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.57 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.31//

 

 

BRENT :  59.40

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.66 ..down 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.11…down 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0899 ( DOWN 34   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.03 UP .279 (YEN DOWN 28 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.37 UP 29 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2297 UP 10  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6496

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.88   DOWN 0.21 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 21 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3243 DOWN 8 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1483  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.1403 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.57%

 

The Dow closed UP 96.58 POINTS OR 0.36%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 59.71 POINTS OR 0.75%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.24 CLOSED DOWN .98

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.098%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Safe-Havens Beat Stocks In Q3 As Global Policy Uncertainty Hits Record High

A flip-flopping quarter ended with global stocks flat but global bond yields collapsing

Source: Bloomberg

Global equity and bond market values rose $1.23 trillion in September but ended Q3 little changed as stocks lost 1.25 trillion and bonds gained $1.8 trillion…

 

Source: Bloomberg

As global policy uncertainty soars to a fresh all-time record high…

Source: Bloomberg

On the quarter, Bullion and Bonds were bid – safe haven flows along with the dollar – as stocks underperformed, scraping out a very small gain…

Distracted? Entertained? What’s the difference?

Stocks

Year-to-date, Russia is outperforming China and US with EM equities underperforming…

In Q3, US equities scraped out a gain but China and Europe were lower (but we note Europe outperformed US and China in September)…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks scratched out a very modest gain in September, but fell for the second straight quarter (though the small-cap, tech-heavy ChiNext managed gains in Q3)…

Source: Bloomberg

European equities managed gains for the second quarter in a row, led by strong gains in Italy (Germany was down in Q3)…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US, thanks to a pumpathon today, The Dow and S&P were up for 3rd straight quarter (while Small Caps lagged most)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the month, US equities ended green (barely) with Nasdaq Composite rebounding today, to avoid a second monthly drop in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

US stocks were all higher on the day (month/quarter-end flows?) – ugly close for small caps though

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the quant carnage in momo exposure in September (worst monthly drop since Aug 2009), both value and momo managed modest gains for Q3…

Source: Bloomberg

Q3 gains were dominated by flows into Defensive stocks; Cyclical stocks lost in Q3 (but outperformed in September)…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks fell for the 3rd straight month in September, the worst quarterly drop since Q4 2018’s collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Bonds

US Treasury yields crashed in Q3 (for the 4th straight quarter), dropping the most since Q4 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

But September saw US Treasury yields rebound notably from August – among the worst months since Dec 2016 (post-Trump Election)…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite steepening dramatically in September (biggest monthly steepening since Nov 2016 – Election), the yield curve collapsed in Q3 (for the 6th consecutive quarter)…and remains notably inverted…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields fell today…

Source: Bloomberg

FX

Q3 was the best quarter for the dollar since Q2 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar managed to ramp this week to end higher for the 3rd month in a row (highest monthly close since March 2017)…

Source: Bloomberg

With China closed for Golden Week, the dollar waited until Europe opened to be panic bid…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave currency-land, it’s worth noting that Q3 was an ugly one for cryptos with Litecoin down a stunning 57%…

Source: Bloomberg

September was mixed though with Ethereum and Ripple positive but Bitcoin (3rd monthly drop in a row) and Litecoin notably lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities

Q3 was a big winner for silver (best quarter since Q1 2017) while WTI fell for the 2nd quarter in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI plunged again today, dropping back below the pre-Saudi spike levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a great quarter, September saw Silver suffer its biggest monthly loss since Nov 2016 (election)

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rose for the 4th straight quarter, ending Q3 at the highest since Q1 2013… But September was gold’s weakest month since June 2018 (after 4 straight months higher) after losing $1500 following multiple saves…

Source: Bloomberg

And the recent weakness should not be a surprise… It happens every Golden Week…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver outperformed gold in Q3 by the most since Q2 2016; but after a big drop, gold outperformed silver by the most since Oct 2018 in September…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that September saw the biggest surge in positive economic surprise data since Jan 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

Don’t forget, stocks are rising on fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

And let’s not forget what The Fed is doing everyday…

“probably nothing”

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Stock Futures Jump Higher After ‘China Delisting’ Story Denied

Update: A few minutes after the initial gap up surge open, sellers arrived (despite the China rumor denial)…

*  *  *

Having tumbled on Friday due to a headline that Washington was considering severe restrictions on China capital inflows to the US, specifically the possible delisting of China stocks in the US, futures have just opened higher following the official denial over the weekend.

 

US stock futures have erased Friday’s gap down losses…

Yuan has also rebounded…

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/MORNING

Stocks Slump After Navarro, Trump Trade Comments

Markets had maintained some gains from the denial of China delisting headlines that sparked selling on Friday. But following Trump advisor Navarro’s comments on CNBC, notably hawkish on China and not directly denying the China investment flows discussion, algos began to get spooked.

Then President Trump retweeted the following quote:

“After many years, the United States is finally waking up to Beijing’s plans and ambitions to pass us as the dominant economic & military superpower in the 21st Century. What’s happening now is that the U.S. is finally responding (thank you President Trump). This is taking….. ….place in TRADE, it’s taking shape in Military Competition.” Johnathan Ward, author and China expert.

Adding that:

 

“We are winning, and we will win. They should not have broken the deal we had with them. Happy Birthday China!”

And stocks did not receive that well…

ii)Market data/USA

Chicago area PMI back into contraction area for the 3rd month in the last 4 readings

(zerohedge)

Chicago PMI Re-Slumps Back Into Contraction

Despite hope that August’s bounce back into expansion would continue, September saw the key survey slump back into contraction (47.1 vs 50.0 exp) for the 3rd month in the last four…

Source: Bloomberg

This was at the very low end of the forecast range (47 – 52.2 from 27 economists surveyed).

Under the hood, things were not pretty:

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
  • Employment fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction
  • Inventories fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Production fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Order backlogs fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction

Getback to work Mr.Powell!

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Many thought that it was our foreign banks that provided the repo problem last week.  In the latest data release it was a few of the large USA banks that were short of liquidity.  We await for the Monday numbers..

(zerohedge)

Which Banks Were Behind The “Repocalypse” Funding Squeeze?

Last weekend, as the overnight funding crisis was peaking, we showed the distribution of $1.4 trillion in Fed reserves, also known simply as “cash”, across the banks that make up the US financial system.

One week later, with the dollar “plumbing” shock seemingly unclogged as we approach quarter end, following $162BN in various term and overnight repo operations…

… which helped push the overnight G/C repo rate back down to 2.00%, questions are still swirling over events in the past two weeks that briefly sent the repo rate soaring as high as 10% as one or more banks found themselves on the verge of a funding crisis.

  • The first question is what happened to prompt the sudden liquidity panic: while we know of the immediate events that led to a sharp drop in bank cash (reserve) levels such as the accelerated rebuild of the Treasury’s General (cash) Account at the Fed, the mid-month tax remittance to the Treasury, and the bulk settlement of Treasury bills, the fact that repo strains remained well into the next week and forced the Fed to drastically expand its repo operations, indicates that something far more serious was afoot than one time cash drains.
  • The second, and perhaps even more important question, is which were the banks the catalyzed the initial funding shortfall, which then spread rapidly across the entire US dollar funding market. Here, as a reminder, even the NY Fed appeared clueless, with John Williams noting last Friday that the York Fed was examining “why banks with excess cash failed to lend to the overnight money market, following a week that revealed cracks in the US’s financial plumbing.”

Setting aside what we don’t know – i.e., the immediate causes for the recent events and which specific banks were the catalysts – if we had to jot down what we do know, it is that it is now widely accepted that the level of “excess” reserves, at $1.4 trillion, is far too low for the financial system. As a result, first Goldman

… and then JPMorgan now predict that the Fed will need to permanently inject billions in reserves – by way of Permanent Open Market Operations, i.e. purchases of Treasuries, i.e. QE (just don’t call it QE 4 whatever you do) – starting some time in November, to elevate the overall level of reserves to roughly $1.7-$1.8 trillion.

Needless to say, a return of QE for a US Treasury whose fiscal 2019 deficit will be just around $1 trillion, and much more in 2020, and which needs to be funded in substantially by Treasury issuance, is just what the doctor ordered. In fact, as JPMorgan calculated, total secondary market purchases are likely to run at roughly $55bn per month through April 2020, and will represent almost all of Treasury’s net issuance over the period. In other words, the Fed is about to monetize the US deficit for the next six months, a handy backstop to the trade war should China decide to stop buying, or worse, dump its US Treasuries.

In fact, this line of thinking brings us back to what we said a little over a week ago: the real reason why the Fed needs to restart QE is simple: America’s exploding debt, and the need for someone to monetize it.

zerohedge@zerohedge

What is real reason for the Fed to restart QE as soon as today? This

View image on Twitter

And all the Fed needed was a smokescreen, allowing it to resume the growth of its balance sheet, which for now is temporary and will, some time in November, turn permanent as Powell announces the resumption of direct Treasury purchases.

Here, a critical question as framed by Cumberland’s Bob Eisenbeis, remains unanswered, namely “the problem with proposals to increase the size of the balance sheet is that there is no guarantee that an increased amount of bank reserves would find their way into the various segments of the repo market where needed”, although we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.

Yet even as the big picture behind the events of the past two weeks gradually emerges, one key question still lingers: which banks, caught in an unprecedented funding squeeze, caused the repocalypse which sent the rate on overnight cash exploding higher as their reserves suddenly found themselves no good in the tri-party repo market, and forced the Fed to launch its first repo operation in over a decade.

The answer, understandably, will hardly be provided: after all, in a time when the repo operation is the functional equivalent of stigmatizing discount window use, any dealer that is exposed as having funding issues could immediately face a bank run as its depositors and counterparties pull their capital, resulting in a liquidity – and solvency – crisis. It may explain why for nearly two weeks, there has been no media report over the culprits of the repo crunch, even though it would likely be the most widely read financial article of the year.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Hey financial reporters: here is a Pulitzer story for you – find out which bank(s) are so starved for $75BN in cash they are using the Fed’s stigmatizing overnight repo operation

And yet one can made some observations courtesy of none other than the Fed, which in its latest H.8 statement (“Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States“) released yesterday, showed the level of various bank asset and liabilities as of Wednesday, September 18, just as the repo crisis was starting. And the one, most important item here is the amount of commercial bank cash, i.e. reserves, broken down as detailed as the H.8 statement allows, which unfortunately only goes to the domestic (large and small) bank and foreign bank level.

What this data shows is that on a non-seasonally adjusted basis (because we care for actual data, not the Fed’s smoothed take), cash at large domestic banks tumbled in the week ending Sept 18 by $55.3 BN to $714.8BN, the lowest total since April 2013, while cash at small domestic banks also dropped substantially, by $18.2BN to $272.9BN, for a combined $73.5BN drop in total domestic bank cash (from $1086.2BN to $1,012.7BN)

And so as cash levels, and reserves, tumbled, sharply draining liquidity out of the system, the Fed responded by announcing a liquidity injection almost precisely offsetting the $73.5BN total cash shortfall, in the form of a $75BN overnight repo operation after a decade-long hiatus, on Sept 19 one day after the Fed’s latest rate cut announcement.

The surprise? Whereas some had speculated that it was foreign banks behind the repo crunch, cash at foreign banks operating in the US rose by a respectable $13.6BN in the week ended Sept 18, to $537,8BN, in line with levels where foreign bank cash had been for much of the past two months.

In other words, to find the culprit for the latest repo shock, don’t look to Europe (those banks have enough pain on their plate with the ECB recently launching QEternity, to also have to worry about overnight funding in the US) but look for clues among domestic US banks.

Unfortunately, since the Fed’s data only goes through Sept 18, the full analysis of bank funding heading into quarter-end will need to wait until next Friday. Meanwhile, while we wait the question is: will the repo situation stabilize once we put September in the rearview mirror as so many rates strategists expect will happen once the quarter-end liquidity shortage fades, or will it persist confirming that something is well and truly broken in the dollar funding markets, and just what will the Fed do in response?

end

 

Monday’s numbers

Third consecutive undersubscribed overnight repo operation/ $63.5 billion in collateral accepted on this last day of Q3. However the collateral rate charged rises by a huge 1% to 2.8%. However this rate should decrease as we enter the new quarter tomorrow and window dressing ceases.

(zerohedge)

Repo Rate Soars As Fed Accepts $63.5 Billion In Collateral On Last Day Of Q3

With quarter-end funding needs supposedly squared away thanks to last week’s three 2-week term-repo operations, moments ago the NY Fed announced that in the final overnight repo operation of the quarter, dealers submitted $63.5BN in collateral ($49.75BN in TSYs, $13.75BN in MBS)…

… in what was the third consecutive undersubscribed overnight repo operation, yet which saw substantially more participation than Friday’s $22.7BN.

 

Yet those going off by the detail in today’s repo operation may have a slightly more rosy take on the funding situation because according to ICAP, the overnight general collateral repo rate surged almost 1%, from 1.85% on Friday to as high as 2.8% on Monday, as quarter-end funding dynamics added to pressure on borrowing costs amid an already tense environment for money markets.

The rate on G/C overnight repo opened at 2.70%/2.50% according to Bloomberg, and at 2.80% according to Reuters, on the final day of September, which while that’s below the heady levels reached close to two weeks ago, is well above where repo ended last week (around 1.85%) and also above the 1.75%-to-2% target range that the U.S. central bank currently has for the fed funds rate.

What is most notable is that despite a barrage of overnight and term repo operations, repo rates remain elevated, with the overnight approaching 3.0%, while the term repo was last around 2.6% according to Curvature Securities’ Scott Skyrm. To be sure, this overnight GC repo is well below the 10% it jumped to on Sept. 17, however it does take into account the Fed’s deployment of a series of overnight and term repo operations to help keep the fed funds rate within its target range.

The Fed will continue conducting overnight repo operations through at least Oct. 10, with many traders expecting funding needs to ease to end into the new quarter.

As famously observed on Dec 31, 2018, overnight rates tends to move sharply higher at the end of the quarter as dealers “window-dress” their balance sheets and curtail activity in the financing markets. Adding to the upward pressure is an influx of additional collateral, with settlements on Monday of more than $100 billion in new Treasury coupon-bearing securities, according to Bloomberg.

end

Forever 21 finally succumbs as retail apocalypse continues.  They believe 30,000 jobs is at risk

(zerohedge)

‘Retail Apocalypse’ Continues: Forever 21 Files For Bankruptcy, 30,000 Jobs At Risk

Following reports earlier this month that a bankruptcy for the fast-fashion pioneer was imminent, Forever 21 filed for Chapter 11 protection in Delaware Sunday night, becoming the latest brick-and-mortar retailer to succumb to the Amazon-driven ‘retail apocalypse’, Bloomberg reports.

In addition to the competition from e-commerce retailers, BBG said Forever 21 struggled with high rents and heavy competition from other fast-fashion rivals (like H&M and Zara).

Court papers show Forever 21 has estimated liabilities (on a consolidated basis) of between $1 billion and $10 billion. Thanks to Chapter 11 protection, Forever 21 will continue operating as it works out a plan to pay back all of its creditors.

Part of that plan, again, according to the filings, will likely involve closing as many as 350 of its more than 800 stores around the world. Most of the closures will focus on Asia and Europe: The company has earlier announced plans to shutter all 14 of its Japanese stores. Meanwhile, its operations in Mexico and Latin America will continue, according to Reuters.

This means that nearly half of the chain’s 30,000 employees could lose their jobs.

Even before the Forever 21 bankruptcy, the ~11,000 announced and completed store closures in the US were already on track to exceed to the totals from the past few years. One research shop projects annual closures in 2019 to hit 12,000 by year end.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that $7.5 billion of ‘sales opportunity’ will arise from store closures in 2019 as liquidation sales pull some demand forward.

Meanwhile, Goldman believes the shift to e-commerce will continue: “We believe e-commerce growth will likely accelerate over the course of the second half as a record number of retail store closures, initiatives around fulfillment such as Amazon’s $800 million investment in same-day delivery and Etsy’s move to free shipping…will drive more consumers to shift purchases online.”

The Chapter 11 filing allows the Los Angeles-based company to keep operating while it works out a plan to pay its creditors and turn around the business.

Since the start of 2017, more than 20 US retailers – including former giants like Sears and Toys ‘R’ Us, as well as discount brands like Payless Shoes –  have filed for bankruptcy, as the sector has struggled with massive debt loads and a migrating consumer base.

And the pressure is only intensifying. Compared with the same period last year, Chapter 11 filings among American corporations have risen by nearly 20% in 2019, according to Reorg Research.

Reorg First Day@ReorgFirstDay

2019 chapter 11 filings are up 18% year-over-year

View image on Twitter

Since 2015, retailers have accumulated more than $45 billion in aggregate liabilities from more than 80 filings.

Reorg First Day@ReorgFirstDay

Since June 2015, retail chains have accumulated more than $45 billion in aggregate chapter 11 liabilities in connection with over 80 bankruptcy filings:

View image on Twitter

However, thanks to a series of loans, Forever 21 might be able to exit bankruptcy protection more quickly than some of its rivals. The retailer has already locked down $275 million in financing from lenders including JPMorgan, which is acting as agent for the loan, along with $75 million in new capital from TPG Sixth Street Partners and its affiliated funds. Forever 21 still expects to be able to honor gift cards and merchandise returns, the company said.

“The financing provided by JPMorgan and TPG Sixth Street Partners will arm Forever 21 with the capital necessary to effect critical changes in the U.S. and abroad to revitalize our brand and fuel our growth, allowing us to meet our ongoing obligations to customers, vendors and employees,” Linda Chang, executive vice president of Forever 21, said in a statement.

Forever 21 was founded in 1984, and before bankruptcy operated 815 stores in 57 countries.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

An absolute joke;  The Ukrainians reportedly had no idea about Trump withholding 400 million dollars until one month after the call

(zerohedge)

 

Quid Pro Nope: Ukraine Reportedly Had No Idea About Trump Withholding $400 Million Until Month After Call

A key element of the impeachment push against President Trump is the assertion that he withheld nearly $400 million in US military aid to Ukraine before ‘pressuring’ President Volodomyr Zelensky to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

While Trump says he stalled the aid to investigate whether the new administration was just as corrupt as the last one, Democrats and their MSM lapdogs have been making the case that the aid and the request to investigate Biden are linked.

Not true, according to the New York Times’ Kenneth Vogel in a Wednesday tweet that went virtually unnoticed (but not by the WSJ‘s indefatigable Kim Strassel).

Responding to a tweet by MSNBC‘s Rick Tyler in which he questions why the $400 million wasn’t “the top priority of the call,” Vogel explains: “The Ukrainians weren’t made aware that the assistance was being delayed/reviewed until more than one month after the call.

Kenneth P. Vogel

@kenvogel

The Ukrainians weren’t made aware that the assistance was being delayed/reviewed until more than one month after the call. https://twitter.com/rickwtyler/status/1176882355069431808 

Rick Tyler

@rickwtyler

The call makes no sense. Why would the $400 million in withheld critically-needed military aid not be the top priority of the call? It’s inexplicable. The only rational explanation is President Zelensky understood it was being used as leverage. https://twitter.com/nibzfolwell/status/1176879383904215040 

To recap – in 2018, former Vice President Joe Biden openly bragged about getting Ukraine’s top prosecutor, Victor Shokin, fired by threatening to withhold $1 billion in US loan guarantees. According to Shokin, “I was forced out because I was leading a wide-range corruption probe into Burisma Holdings, a natural gas firm active in Ukraine, and Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, was a member of the board of directors.”

Then, Ukrainian actor Volodymyr Zelensky won the country’s 2019 election, assuming office on May 20 – and promising to fight corruption.

On July 25, Trump and Zelensky conducted a phone call at the center of a CIA operative’s ‘whistleblower’ complaint based on second and third-hand information, alleging that Trump pressured Zelensky to investigate the Bidens in a quid pro quo arrangement. Under pressure, Trump released both a transcript of the call which revealed no such thing.

According to Trump, his administration withheld the nearly $400 million in aid ($250 million in Pentagon aid and $141 million in State Department funds for an actual total of $391 million) while they reviewed the programs. In May, the Pentagon officially certified that it had seen enough anti-corruption progress in Ukraine  to justify releasing the Congressionally approved aid, according to the Associated Press.

In a May 23 letter to Congress, defense undersecretary for policy, John Rood, said that the Pentagon had made a thorough assessment of Ukraine’s anti-corruption policies and other reforms – writing “On behalf of the secretary of defense, and in coordination with the secretary of state, I have certified that the government of Ukraine has taken substantial actions to make defense institutional reforms for the purpose of decreasing corruption” (via the Washington Post).

Still, the funds weren’t released by the Trump White House until September.

On Wednesday, Zelensky and Trump held a press conference at the United Nations where the Ukrainian president said “Nobody pushed me.”

Bloomberg TicToc

@tictoc

“I don’t want to be involved in the democratic elections of the U.S.A.”

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy responded to allegations of coercion, while Trump said there was “no pressure” on him to investigate Biden

Embedded video

So while House Democrats have launched an official impeachment inquiry based around a quid pro quo and the withholding of funds, the truth of the matter – per the Times‘ Kenneth Vogel, is that Ukraine had no idea the funding was an issue until weeks after the phone call in question.

end
Russ Limbaugh has declared what I have been saying: we are in the middle of a cold civil war
(Sara Carter/Russ Limbaugh)

Limbaugh: We’re In The Middle Of “A Cold Civil War”

Via SaraACarter.com,

The Democrats have declared war against President Trump and those who support him. Instead of bullets, they use lies.

The media is not media. It’s just Democrats who work in the media, and the whole group of ’em is aligned. And what we are in the middle of now, folks, is a Cold Civil War,” Rush Limbaugh said said on his radio show.

 

Limbaugh put forth that the “Cold Civil War” encompasses overturning “the election results of 2016” and “protecting and defending” the Washington establishment.”

Their careers, their fortunes, their corruption. There are terribly big stakes involved here for these people. And Trump is on the cusp of overturning it and exposing it,” Limbaugh said.

Limbaugh called the latest developments involving Ukraine “nothing more than the Steele dossier 2.0,” alluding that it is an extension of the Russia investigation.

“It’s the same people, it’s the same scam, it’s the same objective,” Limbaugh said.

The whistleblower complaint is the latest stage of this war. Limbaugh correctly notes that the report is manufactured political opposition research, just as Christopher Steele’s dossier was. And the entire Democratic Party, including the media, is acting as if it’s real.

end
In a letter to CBS, the attorney for the Whistleblower, states the obvious:  that he is in obvious danger as Trump wants to expose him. However they did not say he is in Federal protection
(zerohedge)

CIA Whistleblower’s Attorney: ’60 Minutes’ Federal Protection Story Is Fake News

An attorney for the CIA whistleblower at the heart of the Trump-Biden-Ukraine scandal said Sunday that CBS‘ “60 Minutes” had “completely misinterpreted” a letter to acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire, which the news outlet construed to mean the whistleblower was now under federal protection, according to Politico.

On Sunday night, CBS wrote on Twitter: “‘60 Minutes’ has obtained a letter that indicates the government whistleblower who set off the impeachment inquiry of President Trump is under federal protection because they fear for their safety.

Mark S. Zaid

@MarkSZaidEsq

NEWS ALERT: 60 Minutes completely misinterpreted contents of our letter, which is now published online at https://compassrosepllc.com/intelligence-community-whistleblower-matter/ . Nor have we, as we stated earlier today, reached any agreement with Congress on contact with the whistleblower. Discussions remain ongoing. https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1178457868095410177 

Intelligence Community Whistleblower Matter | Compass Rose Legal Group, PLLC

September 24, 2019, Statement from Intelligence Community Whistleblower Legal Team September 24, 2019, Letter from Andrew P. Bakaj, Attorney for Intelligence Community Whistleblower to Acting…

compassrosepllc.com

60 Minutes

@60Minutes

“60 Minutes” has obtained a letter that indicates the government whistleblower who set off the impeachment inquiry of President Trump is under federal protection because they fear for their safety https://cbsn.ws/2m8AsWx

1,963 people are talking about this

Contained within the misinterpreted letter is a statement that the attorneys “appreciate your office’s support thus far to activate appropriate resources to ensure (the whistleblower’s) safety,” which ’60 Minutes’ construed as federal protection.

The attorneys noted that President Trump had exacerbated concerns over the whistleblower’s safety, after he said “I want to know who’s the person that gave the Whistleblower, who’s the person thatgave the Whistleblower the information, because that’s close to a spy. You know what we used to do in the old days when we were smart? Right? With spies and treason,right? We used to handle them a little differently than we do now.”

On Friday, President Trump blasted the whistleblower over Twitter, saying “Sounding more and more like the so-called Whistleblower isn’t a Whistleblower at all,” adding “In addition, all second hand information that proved to be so inaccurate that there may not have even been somebody else, a leaker or spy, feeding it to him or her? A partisan operative?”

And following a bombshell report by The Federalist which revealed that the intelligence community changed their requirement for first-hand whistleblower knowledge right as the CIA whistleblower’s second-hand report was filed, Trump tweeted “WOW, they got caught. End the Witch Hunt now!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

WOW, they got caught. End the Witch Hunt now! https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/27/intel-community-secretly-gutted-requirement-of-first-hand-whistleblower-knowledge/ 

Intel Community Secretly Nixed Whistleblower Demand Of First-Hand Info

Federal records show the intel community secretly revised a whistleblower complaint form to eliminate the requirement of first-hand knowledge of wrongdoing.

thefederalist.com

44.3K people are talking about this

Trump addressed this again on Monday, tweeting in ALL CAPS:

“WHO CHANGED THE LONG STANDING WHISTLEBLOWER RULES JUST BEFORE SUBMITTAL OF THE FAKE WHISTLEBLOWER REPORT?”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

WHO CHANGED THE LONG STANDING WHISTLEBLOWER RULES JUST BEFORE SUBMITTAL OF THE FAKE WHISTLEBLOWER REPORT? DRAIN THE SWAMP!

END
This farce continues as House democrats subpoena Giulian over “scheme” to investigate Biden even though the Bidens are absolute crooks
(zerohedge)

House Democrats Subpoena Giuliani Over ‘Scheme’ To Investigate Biden

Congressional Democrats have subpoenaed President Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, for documents and other evidence in ‘two politically-motivated investigations’ – one of which they say constitutes election interference in next year’s US election.

The subpoena was not unexpected.

In a Monday letter from House Committee Chairs Adam Schiff (D-CA), Eliot Engel (D-NY) and Elijah Cummings (D-MD), Giuliani is ordered to hand over “text messages, phone records, and other communications,” related to his communications with the government of Ukraine, which Trump and Giuliani have admitted to asking for an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

 

“The Committees are investigating the extent to which President Trump jeopardized national security by pressing Ukraine to interfere with our 2020 election and by withholding security assistance provided by Congress to help Ukraine counter Russian aggression, as well as any efforts to cover up these matters,” reads the letter.

“Our inquiry includes an investigation of credible allegations that you acted as an agent of the President in a scheme to advance his personal political interests by abusing the power of the Office of the President,” the letter continues. “A growing public record, including your own statements, indicates that the President, you, and others appear to have pressed the Ukrainian government to pursue two politically-motivated investigations.”

The letter points to a September 19 CNN interview in which Giuliani admits “of course” he asked Ukraine to look into Biden – who openly bragged about withholding $1 billion in US loan guarantees unless they fired a prosecutor investigating a company whose board Hunter Biden sat on to the tune of $600,000 per year.

Cuomo Prime Time

@CuomoPrimeTime

CNN’s @ChrisCuomo: “Did you ask Ukraine to look into Joe Biden?”@RudyGiuliani: “Of course I did”

President Trump’s attorney says he had spoken with a Ukrainian official about Joe Biden’s possible role in that government’s dismissal of a prosecutor who investigated Biden’s son.

Embedded video

The letter also notes more recent statements by Giuliani that he is “in possession of evidence – in the form of text messages, phone records, and other communications – indicating that you were not acting alone and that other Trump Administration officials may have been involved in this scheme.

from the King Report:

Carl Bernstein: Sources say Barr preparing to deliver ‘evidence’ of a ‘deep state conspiracy’

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/carl-bernstein-sources-say-william-barr-preparing-to-deliver-evidence-of-a-deep-state-conspiracy

Republicans want whistleblower’s sources, as inconsistencies in complaint emerge

The complaint stated that Trump made a “specific request that the Ukrainian leader locate and turn over servers used by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and examined by the U.S. cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike” — a request that does not appear in the declassified transcript of the call released by the Trump administration on Tuesday. Trump mentioned CrowdStrike, but did not demand the server.

   And according to the whistleblower complaint, by mid-May, U.S. diplomat Kurt Volker sought to “contain the damage” from Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani’s outreach to Ukraine.  But a July 19 text message conversation from Volker to Giuliani, provided to Fox News on Thursday, showed that Volker had in fact encouraged Giuliani to reach out to Ukraine — even sending Giuliani a message reading, “connecting you here with Andrey Yermak, who is very close to President Zelensky.”

    Additionally, the complaint said Trump “suggested that Mr. Zelensky might want to keep” his current prosecutor general, a claim not supported by the transcript…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-want-whistleblowers-sources-citing-apparent-white-house-leak-problem

@RepDougCollins: In formal impeachment proceedings, the president gets to defend himself, and both sides of the aisle have subpoena power. The Speaker is leading her caucus down a fake “impeachment” path because she knows they’ll lose on a level playing field.

Trump’s CrowdStrike Reference Panicked Democrats https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2019/09/26/trumps-crowdstrike-reference-panicked-democrats/

Limbaugh: “Lot of people at risk here.  Obama is at risk, the Clinton’s are at risk, the entire deep state, the administrative state, the ruling class is at risk, the Democrat Party… for implementing a silent coup… Donald Trump can expose them all. Bill Barr can expose them all…”

     That’s why Pelosi’s out there today saying that Bill Barr has gone rogue. If you need any evidence that they scared to death of what Barr and his team are investigating as to the origins of all of this, Pelosi out of the blue saying that Barr has gone rogue, they are doing everything they can to destroy everybody on the other side of this…

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2019/09/27/were-in-the-midst-of-a-cold-civil-war/

@nytimes: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Attorney General William Barr had “gone rogue” and that he shouldn’t be involved in the handling of a whistle-blower complaint…

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/us/politics/pelosi-barr.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

END

Let us close out tonight with this offering from Rob Kirby and Greg Hunter. You must always listen to Rob Kirbu

Dollar Rejection is Why America Ramped Up Oil and Gas Production – Rob Kirby

By Greg Hunter On September 29, 2019

Macroeconomic analyst Rob Kirby thinks the dollar shortage and liquidity crisis has something to do with the booming oil and natural gas industry. Kirby points out, “America is producing an awful lot of energy, but they are not making money doing it. What is it that would make them want to do that? That’s when I started thinking about the rest of the world or the rest of the story. The rest of the story goes something like this: Venezuela used to sell all of its oil in dollars. Russia used to sell all of its oil in dollars. Iran used to sell all of its oil in dollars. Iraq used to sell all of its oil in dollars, and up until very recently, Saudi Arabia used to sell all of its crude oil in dollars, but I believe they are now selling some of their oil in currency other than dollars. So, we have many millions of barrels of oil that were formerly transacted in dollars, and these barrels of oil are now being priced in other currencies.  The dollars that used to buy that oil are now looking for a home, and they didn’t have a home. So, America had to create a home for those dollars, which is why America has ramped up their crude oil production. In the 2004 time period, America’s oil production bottomed out at 4 million barrels a day, and now it is producing 12 1/2 million barrels a day making it the world’s largest producer of crude oil. These barrels America is producing are all being sold for dollars. They needed a place or a home for those dollars. Let’s just say the dollars that were left over when Venezuela, Iran and Russia stopped selling their oil for dollars created a spill on the floor, and they needed a sponge to soak them up. That’s why American crude oil has gone up dramatically, and that’s why American oil production is forecasted to grow even though they are taking losses on every barrel they are producing.

Kirby goes on to say, “Global dollar rejection is why America had to ramp up American oil production to begin with and global dollar rejection is accelerating. This is not going to stop. So, America is going to need to produce more and more dollars to soak more oil priced in dollars that America will produce at a loss. . . . Creating all this extra oil and pricing it in dollars makes the dollar look strong. Nobody producing these incremental barrels are making a penny. They are all hemorrhaging cash. The fact that all these dollars that are going into something that is hemorrhaging cash and losing money is the real reason why there has been no inflation. All these unwanted dollars are financing money losing operations. If these dollars were going into things that made money, the returns would be invested and would be causing observable inflation. The opposite is occurring, and the dollars are disappearing.”

Kirby predicts, “There will come a day when foreigners will collectively say no more dollars in trade. The day is coming.”

In closing, Kirby also says that President Trump is surrounded by people who do not tell him the truth. Kirby contends, “I don’t believe President Trump is informed. I do not believe the people around him would dare inform him with the truth because they would be afraid of what he might do in reaction. So, information is being withheld from the President, and he has a bunch of treasonous dirt bags basically surrounding him. . . . America is not in a good spot right now nor is the world by extension. . . . I don’t see many bright lights on the horizon, and I think where we are headed is a pretty dark place.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Rob Kirby, founder of KirbyAnalytics.com.

((Update: You Tube Re-monetized this video but not after thousands of views without it.  Yeah!!   Enjoy!!))

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

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