OCT 3//POOR USA ISM SERVICE REPORT SENDS GOLD AND SILVER UP: GOLD RISES BY $6.40 TO $1508.35//SILVER IS UP 3 CENTS TO $17.64//HUGE PAPER GOLD GAIN AT THE GLD: 2.93 TONNES//RETAIL SALES IN HONG KONG A DISASTER//HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1508.35 UP $6.40 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.64 UP 3 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1505.00

 

silver:  $17.55

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 469//1136

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,501.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/02/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/04/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 181
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 240
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12
661 C JP MORGAN 1000
661 H JP MORGAN 469
685 C RJ OBRIEN 31 2
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1 1
690 C ABN AMRO 69
700 C UBS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 23 61
800 C MAREX SPEC 11 21
880 H CITIGROUP 130
905 C ADM 19
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1,136 1,136
MONTH TO DATE: 9,231

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 1136 NOTICE(S) FOR 113600 OZ (3.5334 tonnes,

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  9231 NOTICES FOR 923,100 OZ  (28.7122 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR 0CT

 

 

13 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 65,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 782 for 3,910,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8217 DOWN 141 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8147 DOWN 214

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL  SIZED 374 CONTRACTS FROM 212,266 UP TO 212,640 DESPITE THE STRONG 33 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR OCT 0,; DEC  807 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  807 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 807 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 807 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.035 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 33 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.300     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

YESTERDAY, ANOTHER MAJOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX WHICH FAILED MISERABLY.  OUR BANKER /OFFICIAL SECTOR SAW THE WRITING ON THE WALL AS THEY TRIED TO COVER SOME OF THE HUGE SHORTS BUT AT HIGHER PRICES.  THAT IS THE REASON WHY THE TOTAL OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES DID NOT RISE APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO GOLD THEY WILL REGROUP AND TRY AGAIN AS WE HAVE ONLY 3 DAYS LEFT BEFORE CHINA RETURNS. 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

3206 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 3206 CONTRACTS) OR 16.030 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1068 CONTRACTS OR 5.343 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  16.030 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.29% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1688.13   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 374, WITH THE 33 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 807 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR  SIZED: 1224 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 807 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 374  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS SMALL  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A STRONG 33 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.61 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.063 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 152% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 13 NOTICE(S) FOR 65,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ// OCT: 6.300 MILLION OZ/
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 10,372 CONTRACTS, TO 615,257 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG  $19.30 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6365 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  6565 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 615,257,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,737 CONTRACTS: 10,372 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6365 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 16,737 CONTRACTS OR 1,673,700 OZ OR 52.06 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $19.30 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 52.06  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE AS WELL BEING  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA. THE BANKERS HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO ALLOW GOLD’S ADVANCE AND THEN TRY AND REGROUP TOMORROW FOR ANOTHER RAID ATTEMPT.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 21,531 CONTRACTS OR 2,153,100 oz OR 67.64 TONNES (3 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7177 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 67.64 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 67.64/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4474.29  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 10,372 DESPITE THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($19.30)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6365 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6365 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 16,737 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6365 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,372 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 52.06 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $19.30 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had: 1136 notice(s) filed upon for 113,600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP$6.40 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A PAPER DEPOSIT OF: 2.93 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.76  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.490 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 374 CONTRACTS from 212,226 UP TO 212,640 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  807  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 807 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 374  CONTRACTS TO THE 807 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1224 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.905 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.300 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 33 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 807 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 67.62 POINTS OR 0.26%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 436.87 POINTS OR 2.01%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.10%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed/Oil UP TO 52.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and 657.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  // LAST AT 7.1483 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1338 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)Hong Kong

Retail sales is a disaster because of the continuous riots

(zerohedge)

ii)Hong kong bans masks in the hope that it will curtail the rioting. The citizens will figure out other ways to protest

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

EU officials are cool to BoJo’s plan.  Remember you need all 27 members to affirm his plan and the chances that that will happen is zero

(zerohedge)

ii)this is deadly..We now have 70% of European bonds have sub zero yields

(seeking alpha)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

a)MICHAEL EVERY OF RABOBANK DISCUSSES THE MAIN AREAS THAT ARE BOTHERING HIM TODAY

(MICHAEL EVERY)

b)Sweden

Gatestone provides a chilling example as to what happens when you mix migrants with regular fol.  Many municipalities are in shambles because of this.

a must read…

Gatestone)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

a)A joke: 5 employees of Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi fined for spoofing in gold and silver

(GATA/CFTC)

b)Craig Hemke is in my camp with reference to infinite unbacked comex paper.  He does not realize that the entire trading is official sector

(Craig Hemke/SAprott)

c)My goodness, the London’s financial times got a brain infarction: they admit that central bank intervention diminishes market fundamentals.  Geniuses

(London’s Financial times/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

The service sector is 70% of the uSA GDP. We now have the manufacturing sector catch a cold and the service sector caught pneumonia. This is why gold and silver burst higher on news that the uSA economy is truly in trouble

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Brandon Smith has an alternate view of Trump and what the elites are trying to do when they bring down the economy.  They want all the blame onto Trump

a  good read..

(Brandon Smith)

b)Kroger has a huge number of employees with the many grocery outlets that it owns (443,000 employees).  They are going to lay off hundred as the turnaround just did not work

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Seems that the Democrats are starting to face the music that they tried to interfere in the 2016 election by trying to get dirt on trump.  John Solomon has all the evidence needed

(zerohedge)

b)Seems that the Democrats are very worried about Barr going to Italy finding out the origin of the Russia gate story,  In essence it really begins with Mifsud and morphs to Australian Downer and then the whole game begins.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 10,372 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 615,257 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $19.30 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6365 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 6365   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6365 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 16,737 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6365 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 10,372 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS FAILED IN THEIR ATTEMPT AT CONTAINING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT ROSE BY A STRONG  $19.30. JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

…. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  16,737 CONTRACTS OR 1,673,700 OZ OR 52.06 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 1358 contracts still standing for a loss of 582 contracts. Yesterday we had 598 notices served upon so we have a gain of 16 contracts or an additional 1600 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers in their attempt to find physical metal.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 20 contracts and thus the OI is ELEVATED to 837.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 8671 contracts UP to 480,663.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 1136 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  113,600 OZ. (3.5334 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 374 CONTRACTS FROM 212,266 UP TO 212,640 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S SMALL  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 33 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 491 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF ONLY 54 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 63 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 9 CONTRACTS OR 45,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 21 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 465. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 604 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 162,570.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 13 notice(s) filed for 65,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 397,551  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  413,106  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 3/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
57,517.692 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1136 notice(s)
 113,600 OZ
(3.5334 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
222 contracts
(22200 oz)
.6905 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9231 notices
923,100 OZ
28.7122 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else: 0  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 1 huge gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 57,517.692 oz

i wonder what scared them out of the comex?

 

 

 

ADJUSTMENTS:

i) Out of Brinks:

a phony entry:

2893.500 oz of fake kilobars are adjusted out of the customer account and this arrives into the dealer account of Brinks

(90 kilobars)

 

 

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 1000 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1136 contract(s) of which 469 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9231) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (1358 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1136 x 100 oz per contract) equals 945,300 OZ OR 29.402 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (9231 x 100 oz)  + (1358)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1136 x 100 oz )which equals 945,300 oz standing OR 29.402 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained 16 contracts or an additional 1600 oz will stand for gold in Oct.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 29.402 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 62.007 TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 59.407 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,534.308 oz or  35.786 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,130,775.265 oz 252.90 tonnes

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 109 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 3 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1103,171.918 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
13
CONTRACT(S)
(65,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
478 contracts
 2,390,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  782 contracts

3,910,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  600,968.446 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 502,203.472 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 1,103,171.718  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments :

 

total dealer silver:  77.826 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.227 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 13 contract(s) FOR 65,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 782 x 5,000 oz = 3,910,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (491) and the number of notices served upon today 13 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 782 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (491)- number of notices served upon today (13)x 5000 oz equals 6,300,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE  gained 9 contracts or an additional 45,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  69,287 CONTRACTS

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 74,862 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 74,862 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 374 million  OZ 53.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

 

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.59% ((OCT 3/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.99% to NAV (OCT 3/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.59%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.04 TRADING 14.57///DISCOUNT 3.14

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.40//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.76 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.83 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

OCT 3/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 923.76 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 673 TRADING DAYS: 25.40 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 573- TRADING DAYS: A NET 141.25 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 3/2019: WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.490 MILLION OZ..

OCT 2/2019//WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES/INSURANCE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.490 MILLION OZ//

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

OCT 3/2019:

 

 

Inventory 383.490 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.15/ and libor 6 month duration 2.02

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .13

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.98%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.02

end

 

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A joke: 5 employees of Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi fined for spoofing in gold and silver

(GATA/CFTC)

Morgan Stanley, Mitsubishi fined for spoofing in gold and silver futures

 Section: 

CFTC Orders Two Trading Firms, Bank to Pay a Total of $3 Million for Spoofing

From the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Washington, D.C.
Tuesday, October 1, 2019

https://cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8031-19

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced that civil enforcement actions were filed and simultaneously settled against two trading firms and one bank for violating the Commodity Exchange Act’s (CEA) prohibition on spoofing (bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before execution). These cases were brought in connection with the Division of Enforcement’s Spoofing Task Force.

“As these cases demonstrate, the CFTC is committed to preserving the integrity of our markets —- like the financial and precious metals futures markets at issue here — and to rooting out unlawful practices like spoofing,” said CFTC Enforcement Director James McDonald. “We will continue to vigilantly investigate and prosecute misconduct by entities that spoof in our markets.”

… 

.Enforcement Action Against Morgan Stanley Capital Group Inc.

The CFTC on Monday, September 30, 2019, issued an order filing and settling charges against Morgan Stanley Capital Group Inc. for engaging in spoofing on multiple occasions in the precious metals futures markets from at least November 2013 to November 2014. The order requires Morgan Stanley to pay a civil monetary penalty of $1.5 million, to cease and desist from violating the CEA’s spoofing prohibition, and to take specified steps to implement and strengthen its training, systems, and controls to detect and deter spoofing in the futures markets.

The order recognizes Morgan Stanley’s significant cooperation with the CFTC’s investigation, and notes that Morgan Stanley’s cooperation and remediation resulted in a reduced civil monetary penalty.

The Division of Enforcement staff members responsible for this case are Lara Turcik, Brandon Wozniak, Candice Aloisi, Lenel Hickson Jr., and Manal M. Sultan.

… Enforcement Action Against Belvedere Trading LLC

The CFTC on Monday, September 30, 2019, issued an order filing and settling charges against Belvedere Trading LLC, a proprietary trading firm in Chicago, Illinois, for engaging in acts of spoofing on hundreds of occasions in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) E-mini S&P 500 futures market. The order finds that Belvedere engaged in this unlawful activity through two of its traders from between June 2014 and February 2015 and during October 2015 and November 2015. The order requires Belvedere to pay a $1.1 million civil monetary penalty and to cease and desist from violating the spoofing prohibition of the CEA.

The order recognizes Belvedere’s early resolution of this matter in the form of a reduced civil monetary penalty.

The CFTC acknowledges and thanks the staff of the Market Regulation Department of the CME Group for their assistance in this matter.

The Division of Enforcement staff members responsible for this matter are Stephen Turley, Allison Sizemore, Rachel Hayes, Becky Jelinek, Chris Reed, and Charles Marvine, as well as former staff member Peter Riggs.

… Enforcement Action Against Mitsubishi International Corporation

The CFTC on Monday, September 30, 2019, issued an order filing and settling charges against Mitsubishi International Corporation for engaging in multiple acts of spoofing on the Commodity Exchange Inc. markets for silver and gold futures. This conduct occurred between at least April 2016 and January 2018. The order finds that Mitsubishi engaged in this unlawful activity through one of its traders who accessed these markets via an affiliate’s London office. The order requires Mitsubishi to pay a $400,000 civil monetary penalty and to cease and desist from violating the CEA’s spoofing prohibition.

The order recognizes that Mitsubishi promptly self-reported the misconduct and proactively implemented remedial measures and process improvements to deter and detect similar misconduct. The timely self-report, cooperation, and remediation resulted in a significantly reduced civil monetary penalty.

The Division of Enforcement staff members responsible for this case are Philip Tumminio, Kara Mucha, and Rick Glaser.

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

END’

Too big to lend? JPMorgan cash hit Fed limits, roiling U.S. repos

 Section: 

By David Henry
Reuters
Tuesday, October 1, 2019

NEW YORK — JPMorgan Chase & Co. has become so big that some rival banks and analysts say changes to its $2.7 trillion balance sheet were a factor in a spike last month in the U.S. “repo” market, which is crucial to many borrowers.

Rates in the $2.2 trillion market for repurchase agreements rose as high as 10% on September 17 as demand for overnight cash from companies, banks and other borrowers exceeded supply.

… 

While not seen as an sign of distress as it was during the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2008, the spike did prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to promise to lend at least $75 billion each day until Oct. 10 to relieve the pressure.

Analysts and bank rivals said big changes JPMorgan made in its balance sheet played a role in the spike in the repo market, which is an important adjunct to the Fed Funds market and used by the Fed to influence interest rates.

Without reliable sources of loans through the repo market, the financial system risks losing a valuable source of liquidity. Hedge funds, for example, use it to finance investments in U.S. Treasury securities and banks turn to it as option for raising suddenly-needed cash for clients.

Publicly-filed data shows JPMorgan reduced the cash it has on deposit at the Federal Reserve, from which it might have lent, by $158 billion in the year through June, a 57% decline.

Although JPMorgan’s moves appear to have been logical responses to interest rate trends and post-crisis banking regulations, which have limited it more than other banks, the data shows its switch accounted for about a third of the drop in all banking reserves at the Fed during the period.

“It was a very big move,” said one person who watches bank positions at the Fed but did not want to be named. An executive at a competing bank called the shift “massive.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-repo-jpmorgan-analysis/too-big-to…

END

Craig Hemke is in my camp with reference to infinite unbacked comex paper.  He does not realize that the entire trading is official sector

(Craig Hemke/SAprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Infinite unbacked paper in futures market continues gold price suppression

 Section: 

11:43a ET Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, in his weekly commentary for Sprott Money, shows again today how last week’s smashdown in gold futures prices was entirely a matter of creation by bullion banks of as much imaginary paper supply as necessary to panic the speculative longs into selling. Meanwhile, Hemke writes, there was virtually no real metal in the futures market vaults to back the paper claims being sold.

… 

Hemke writes: “If you want to bury your head in the sand, ignore the evidence and indictments, and claim that all you’ve just read is nonsense and ‘conspiracy theory,’ knock yourself out. A wise man once said, ‘It’s impossible to save someone who doesn’t want to be saved.’ Indeed, all I can do is explain to you how these ‘markets’ actually operate and remind you that the manipulation remains ongoing and active. You can take it from there.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Gold Price Manipulation Continues” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/bank-gold-price-manipulation-continues-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

My goodness, the London’s financial times got a brain infarction: they admit that central bank intervention diminishes market fundamentals.  Geniuses

(London’s Financial times/GATA)

FT commentary admits that central bank intervention diminishes market fundamentals

 Section: 

“Meanwhile, central bank intervention and a much-changed regulatory landscape have increased the importance of ‘non-fundamental’ investing — investment decisions that are not grounded in an analysis of the value of an asset based on business or economic fundamentals.”

* * *

Why Buffett is wrong to dismiss the benefits of gold

By Paras Anand
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, October 1, 2019

https://www.ft.com/content/4204de76-e395-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59?desktop=…

Legendary investor Warren Buffett’s much-quoted dismissal of the investment merits of gold is simple: the metal is “neither of much use nor procreative.” But the Oracle of Omaha has got this wrong. Gold is constantly offering useful insights, if you look closely enough.

Gold as an investment yields nothing and generates no cash flow, so its price is largely determined by the secondary market. In other words, it is only worth what other people are prepared to pay for it. That price has risen by almost a fifth so far this year to about $1,470 per troy ounce.

In that sense, gold is the original profitless unicorn, summoning billions from investors well before tech start-ups arrived on the scene. The obvious difference between tech enthusiasts and goldbugs is that few of the latter get excited about industry-disrupting platforms. On the contrary, they see gold as the ultimate anti-disrupter — an insurance policy against asset price deflation.

Traditionally, gold prices have been given little airtime in discussions of “serious” investment strategy. But even if you have no intention of considering an allocation to gold, there is a value in keeping an eye on the price, as it can be an interesting signal amid the increasing noise of macroeconomic data.

The growth in passive and systematic investment strategies has brought sweeping changes to the structure of financial markets over the past decade. Meanwhile, central bank intervention and a much-changed regulatory landscape have increased the importance of “non-fundamental” investing — investment decisions that are not grounded in an analysis of the value of an asset based on business or economic fundamentals.

The result is that, increasingly, decisions to buy or sell securities are based less on notions of value and more on unrelated functional needs. There is less information in prices today, because there is far less wisdom in the crowds. In response, it is more important than ever that investors employ fundamental analysis, patient capital and wilfully ignore short-term price swings.

Amid all these shifts, the market structure that has arguably changed the least is gold. Given there was never a concept of fundamental value, and it was never bought and sold on that basis, its underlying price drivers have remained consistent. So, could it be that in today’s market, gold is a rare source of wisdom?

If so, it is a contrarian wisdom. Gold’s price action over the past decade has confounded the expectations of even its most devoted fans. In the years immediately after the financial crisis, many goldbugs geared up for a bull market that never arrived.

Given the widespread use of quantitative easing globally and a sovereign crisis in Europe, it would be hard to imagine a more favourable environment for gold as an inflation hedge. Given the fragile financial system, dysfunctional politics and an apparent threat to fiat money, how did gold not catch a bid? Because counter to conventional wisdom at the time, inflation did not pick up with quantitative easing. It collapsed.

Even when it is strengthening, the gold price is surprising. To the extent gold is an alternative store of value to the US dollar, it would be expected to move in the opposite direction to the currency. But recently it has been making material gains despite a strengthening dollar. Signs that the gold price is defying conventional wisdom suggest we should dig a little deeper.

What then is the message that gold prices are sending? There are two very different answers to this question.

The first is that gold’s theoretical value — as an asset that yields nothing — should go up as the amount of negative-yielding assets increases. In this explanation, gold’s rising price is a sign that negative real rates will persist and the recession already priced into many asset classes will be more severe than consensus expectations.

There are weaknesses in the argument. Yes, the amount of negative-yielding assets is at historic levels. But to the extent that these assets have been bought to provide liquidity or meet capital adequacy requirements, their yields arguably say less about future economic prospects than they do about the changes in market structure.

The alternative explanation is equally plausible, but more important. It is that gold prices could signal a pick-up in inflation. This feels less likely, even with looser fiscal policy. But as we pointed out, after the financial crisis gold prices did seem to predict that QE would not lead to the expected increase in inflation.

If gold proves correct this time in signalling higher inflation, investors take note, given the impact this would have on asset prices across markets.

It has always been wise to listen to Mr. Buffett. But given the seismic shift in market structure in recent years, gold may yet prove to be an indicator not only of “bandwagon” investor behaviour but broader economic expectations.

—–

The writer is head of asset management for Asia-Pacific at Fidelity International

 

END

David Stockman states that gold will benefit as markets begin to doubt central babnks

(David Stockman/Kingworldnews)

Gold will benefit as markets doubt central banks, Stockman tells KWN

 Section: 

10:44p ET Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Former U.S. budget director David Stockman tells King World News today that gold will benefit as investors increasingly suspect that central banks can’t keep all the financial bubbles inflated.

Stockman says: “Relative to the size of the financial markets — there’s $250 trillion of debt and the equity markets total $80 trillion — if you add them all up, call it nearly $350 trillion of debt and equity market value in the global financial system — the value of all the gold in the world is a tiny fraction of all of that.”

… 

Just a small shift from those markets into gold, Stockman adds, will have a big impact on the price of the monetary metal.

That is, if the shift moves into real metal and not just more paper.

Stockman’s interview is posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/david-stockman-there-will-be-a-big-flight-to-g…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

END

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1483/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1338   /shanghai bourse CLOSED

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 67.62 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 436.87 POINTS OR 2.01%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.95/Euro RISES TO 1.0963

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.20/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.97/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 52.72 and Brent: 57.45

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE NOT TRADING/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.58%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.86% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.14%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.44: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.36

3k Gold at $1501.80  silver at: 17.60   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 1/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.11

3m oil into the 52 dollar handle for WTI and 57 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.97 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9994 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0957 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.58%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.57% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.06%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6986..

Futures Tread Water As Traders Brace For More Bad News

After tumbling on Wednesday in the aftermath of the shockingly low ISM print, world stocks hovered near four-week lows on Thursday and yields on major benchmark bonds slipped further after Trump imposed $7.5 billion in new tariffs on European goods, stoking fears about global growth and dousing risk appetite.

 

US equity futures staged a feeble rebound on Thursday after tumbling almost 1.5% on Wednesday, their biggest drop in almost 6 weeks, and European markets drifted as investors looked ahead to key economic data which could confirm that the US economy is headed for a recession.

 

As DB’s Jim Reid notes, over the next few days markets have several key data points to help assess whether a global manufacturing recession is spreading into the wider economy. Before tomorrow’s much anticipated September US employment report, today we’ve got a very important ISM US non-manufacturing report to dissect. In terms of expectations, for the ISM the consensus is sitting at a still comforting 55.2 following a 56.4 print in August, however focus is on the employment component. As a reminder last month this fell to 53.1 and to the lowest since March 2017. This has historically been a leading indicator of the overall trend in service-sector job growth. So, further deterioration would send a more concerning signal to monetary policymakers about the labor market outlook.

“Risk aversion is broadly on the rise and that has been triggered by the weakness in U.S. manufacturing ISM data earlier this week,” said Manuel Oliveri, an FX strategist at Credit Agricole in London. “The outperformance of the U.S. economy compared to other major economies has held the dollar and other risky assets up but that has changed this week.”

The MSCI index of world stocks slipped 0.1%, with Asian shares plunging as Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed down 2%, its biggest one-day decline since Aug. 26; China remains closed for its Golden Week holiday. Hong Kong stocks advanced on reports the city would invoke emergency powers to ban face masks at public gatherings; this sparked some hope the city’s crushing protest siege may soon end.

Later in the session, European stocks eked out small gains after suffering their worst day since last December on Wednesday, when the US announced it would impose tariffs on $7.5 billion of European goods. On Wednesday, Washington said it will enact 10% tariffs on Airbus PA) planes and 25% duties on French wine, Scotch and Irish whiskies and cheese from across the continent as punishment for illegal EU subsidies to Airbus.

As if that wasn’t enough, the final Markit services data confirmed that the euro-area manufacturing malaise is spreading to the services sector. A Purchasing Managers’ Index for the 19-nation region slid to 50.1 in September, the lowest level in more than six years and just above the 50 mark that distinguishes between gains and declines in total output; this was pressured by a lower final services reading, which dropped to 51.6, down from the 52.0 flash print, when expectations had been for a print of 53.3. Until now, the services series has held up much better than manufacturing, and indeed the recent gap between the two is the widest since 2009. That said, the fall in the flash print to its lowest level since January has heightened concerns that services will resolve lower to catch down to manufacturing.

 

Despite the ongoing barrage of bad news, European stocks managed to bounce because investors saw the US tariff product list as smaller than initially proposed, which helped prop up some sectors with the regional STOXX 600 index up 0.2%, torn between falls in financials and gains in luxury goods stocks. France’s CAC index rose 0.7% while Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.5%. German bourses – a weather vane for exports – were closed for a national holiday.

The latest U.S.-European trade tensions added to fears over the standoff between Washington and Beijing, which has cast a shadow over global growth prospects. Earlier in the week, disappointing data on U.S. manufacturing and the jobs market suggested the trade war with China had damaged the world’s largest economy.

“The big question for a lot of folks is whether this is the third slowdown since the financial crisis or are we now heading for a global recession,” said Anujeet Sareen, a fixed income portfolio manager and global macro strategist for Brandywine Global. “The wild card in the pack is always Donald Trump and whatever he tweets next.”

The latest flight to safety saw yields on two-year U.S. Treasury yields slip to 1.4680%, nearing a two-year low of 1.4280% as odds for more rate cuts jumped; ten-year Treasury yields dipped to their lowest in more than three weeks, trading at 1.5650% this morning. Adding to pressure on yields was a weak ADP Private Payrolls report, boosting expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. Traders now see a 72.8% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points to 1.75%-2.00% in October, up from 39.6% on Monday, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Rate cut odds will spike even more if Friday’s non-farm payrolls report shows continued weakness in the labor market.

“The employment number is going to be a very important metric for the Fed,” Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale SA, told Bloomberg TV. Rajappa said it’s the most important data point heading into the Fed’s October meeting. “If you get a weak number you’re going to get more of a bull steepening — the market starting to price in more rate cuts.”

Meanwhile, government bond yields in safe-haven Germany fell for the first time in over a week, following the recent Draghi scare that Germany will be forced to issue much more debt to boost the flagging European economy.

In geopolitical news, North Korea said it successfully test-fired new Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLNM), the tests were to contain outside forces’ threats, tests had no adverse impact on security of neighbouring counties. (Yonhap/KCNA) US and North Korea will begin working level talks on October 4th in Sweden, according to sources cited by CNN International Correspondent Will Ripley.  Elsewhere, Hong Kong police have reportedly relaxed guidelines regarding the use of force in protests., according to documents.

In FX, the dollar dipped to one-week lows against the euro and yen, while the Bloomberg dollar index dropped to session lows at 1215. The greenback crossed 107 Japanese yen and touched a week low of 106.95 yen before recovering some ground. It fell to $1.0973 per euro. Meanwhile, sterling was modestly higher at $1.2320 as investors waited for a European Union response to Britain’s latest Brexit offer, which Prime Minister Boris Johnson offered on Wednesday. So far, his last-ditch Brexit proposal has received a cool reception. One senior EU official said it “can’t fly” because it was an unworkable move backwards that left Britain and the EU far apart.

In commodities, Brent was flat at $57.84 per barrel. Energy traders are worried about a slowing global economy, an over-supplied market and geopolitical friction in the Middle East.

Economic data include Markit services PMI, durable goods orders, jobless claims. PepsiCo, Costco are due to report earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,893.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 378.26
  • MXAP down 0.8% to 154.89
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 495.92
  • Nikkei down 2% to 21,341.74
  • Topix down 1.7% to 1,568.87
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,110.31
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,905.19
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 38,125.46
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.2% to 6,492.99
  • Kospi down 2% to 2,031.91
  • German 10Y yield fell 3.0 bps to -0.576%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.0957
  • Brent Futures up 0.02% to $57.70/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.3 bps to 0.561%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.141%
  • Brent Futures unchanged at $57.69/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.03% to $1,498.95
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 99.07

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The euro-area economy stagnated at the end of the third quarter as factories suffered from falling global demand. A Purchasing Managers’ Index for the 19-nation region slid to 50.1 in September, the lowest level in more than six years and just above the 50 mark that distinguishes between gains and declines in total output
  • The U.K.’s services industry unexpectedly contracted last month as the nation’s dominant sector became the latest victim of escalating uncertainty over the EU divorce
  • Johnson’s new Brexit plan will face the scrutiny of two critical groups of skeptics on Thursday, one in the U.K. Parliament and another at the European Commission. While the British prime minister is optimistic, in Brussels officials said Johnson’s proposals are still unacceptable and there’s little chance of a deal by Oct. 31 unless the U.K. makes significant additional concessions
  • The price of Scotch, French wine, cheese and other European exports is about to go up in the U.S. after the Trump administration announced new tariffs on billions of dollars of EU products starting Oct. 18
  • Democrats have set a blistering pace for their impeachment inquiry of Donald Trump with a lineup of depositions — including the recently departed U.S. envoy to Ukraine — stoking the president’s fury and feeding efforts to discredit the investigation
  • Hong Kong will use an emergency ordinance for the first time in more than a half a century in order to ban face masks at public gatherings, according to local media outlets including the South China Morning Post and news channel TVB

Asian equities largely tracked losses seen on Wall Street which saw the DJIA fall below its 100 DMA (~26400) and briefly dip below the 26k level as the trade landscape took a turn for the worse with the US set to impose tariffs on EU goods on October 18th. ASX 200 (-2.2%) was led lower by heavyweight financials and miners whilst the Nikkei 225 (-2.0%) was pressured by a firmer domestic currency. Meanwhile, upside in the Hang Seng (+0.3%) was hindered by losses in oil giant CNOOC following a downgrade at Daiwa Securities, whilst HSBC and other financials rested near the bottom of the index amid lower yields and against the backdrop of ongoing protests, as demonstrators staged overnight vandalism and targeted Mainland China-linked businesses, and with reports of Hong Kong studying methods to contain the protest violence. Elsewhere, Mainland China and South Korean markets are closed today due to public holidays. Hong Kong is reportedly studying a curfew to contain protest violence, according to local press. HK Chief Executive may use a ban to direct each person to remain in the specified area for the period specified in the order, until the Chief Executive revokes the curfew. The article also stated that anyone who breaks the curfew is guilty of offence and is liable on conviction to imprisonment for two years. A person such as a police or other disciplined force is not subject to a ban on duty or on his way to and from duty, the article said. Other reports stated that the government has also considered a law banning the wearing of face masks

Top Asian News

  • Jokowi Promises New Labor, Investment Rules Will Be Reality
  • Yes Bank CEO Sees Fundraising Done ‘Sooner Than Market Expects’
  • Record Gold Prices Keep India’s Imports at Lowest in Three Years
  • Pakistan’s Army Chief Holds Private Meetings to Shore Up Economy

Major European Bourses are mostly higher in lighter trade with the German bourses shut for a national holiday. Markets appear to have stabilised in wake of yesterday/last night’s steep declines seen across global equity markets, ahead of further crucial macro-economic data in the form of US ISM non-manufacturing today, and NFP tomorrow. After the WTO ruled yesterday that the US could hit the EU with tariffs on USD 7.5bln worth of imports, a retaliation for the bloc’s illegal subsidising of Airbus, the USTR office unveiled the details of the tariffs; EU aircraft will be hit with 10% tariffs, while other agriculture and industrial goods (including on Whisky, Wine and Cheese) will be hit with 25% tariffs, with the tariffs to take effect on October 18th. Europe will retaliate, when the WTO rules on its complaints over US subsidies for Boeing, although any decision is unlikely until the end of the year. European stocks feared to have been worst affected by possible US tariffs cheered the announcement, implying a softer response by the US than some had feared; aircraft maker Airbus (+3.5%), luxury goods makers LVMH (+1.8%) and Kering (+1.1%) and beverage makers Pernod Ricard (+3.2%) and Diageo (+1.5%) all outperform. The sectors paint a mixed picture; Industrials (+0.1%) and the consumer sectors are firmer, reflecting strength in the above-mentioned names. Energy (-0.4%) continued to underperform, amid a catch up to recent declines in oil prices and with the overhang of yesterday’s decision by Norway’s Wealth Fund to sell oil & gas stocks worth approx. USD 5.9bln still weighing. Other notable individual movers include; Ted Baker (-35.7%) sunk after the co. posted disappointing earnings and warned of very difficult trading conditions and that full-year results could fall short. Sika (+3.2%) caught a bid on the news that the Co. had announced a new strategy, where it increased its long-term EBIT margin target to 15-18% from the prior 14-18%. Finally, Ingenico Group (+2.7%) saw strength after Berenberg initiated the co. with a buy.

Top European News

  • Polish Banks Risk Setback on FX Loan Terms After EU Court Ruling
  • Seadrill Lenders Look for Exits Amid Elusive Rig Market Recovery
  • U.K. Services Unexpectedly Shrink Under Weight of Brexit Fears
  • Rehn Sees Limits of ECB’s Capacity to Boost Economic Growth

In FX, not to be outdone by the All Blacks, the Kiwi is outscoring rivals in the major currency stakes with Nzd/Usd extending its rebound to within a whisker of 0.6300 and Aud/Nzd down through 1.0700 as the Aussie continues to labour on the 0.6700 handle vs its US counterpart in wake of the latest RBA rate cut and reaffirmation of easing guidance.

  • GBP – The Pound is holding up relatively well given another sub-50 UK PMI reading, and this time from the key services sector. The composite index has followed suite and IHS/Markit is now predicting a 0.1% q/q GDP dip for Q3 that would be enough to tip the economy into a technical recession. However, Sterling is resisting downside pressure and potential dovish BoE implications ahead of a speech by Tenreyro, as Cable keeps tabs with 1.2300 and Eur/Gbp pivots 0.8900 amidst mixed EU assessments on the latest Brexit proposals from PM Johnson. The rationale appears to be that while there is no sign that differences over the Irish backstop have been bridged, there maybe scope for further negotiation and/or sufficient grounds to warrant another Article 50 extension even if Boris is adamant about leaving at the end of this month, deal or no deal.
  • CHF/CAD/SEK – The G10 laggards, with the Franc succumbing to additional negative vibes following the ECJ ruling on Polish Chf denominated mortgages, but off par-plus lows vs the Dollar that is still feeling the adverse effects of Tuesday’s downbeat US non-manufacturing PMI (DXY straddling 99.000 ahead of today’s services PMI, ISM and raft of data). Elsewhere, the Loonie has retreated further amidst ongoing weakness in crude prices, with Usd/Cad finally breaching 1.3300 and the 200 DMA (1.3295) before absorbing offers at 1.3310 on the way towards 1.3340, while Eur/NOK scales 10.0000. Nevertheless, the Norwegian Crown is faring better than its Scandinavian neighbour after Sweden’s services PMI tracked the manufacturing index into contractionary territory and propelled Eur/Sek up to almost 10.8500 and ytd peaks only a few pips above.
  • EUR/JPY – The single currency has also displayed resilience in the face of mostly disappointing Eurozone services PMIs and more evidence of deflation via PPI data, although again partly if not largely at the behest or bequest of the Buck, as Eur/Usd trades on the 1.0950 axis and eyeing decent option expiries at 1.0970 (1.2 bn) and 1.1000 (1.7 bn). Similarly, the Yen is confined between 107.30-106.98 parameters, albeit the headline pair in a lower band with expiry interest layered from 107.00-05 (1.2 bn) through 107.50-60 (1 bn) to 107.65-75 (1.2 bn). Note also, a big expiry in Eur/Jpy resides at the 117.00 strike (1.5 bn) and the cross is currently at the lower end of a 117.64-26 range.
  • EM – Usd/Try remains in retracement mode after upside resistance was respected/rejected yesterday, but off lows in wake of Turkish CPI that missed already very soft expectations and could force the CBRT to ease further, or at least up Government pressure on the CB to cut rates again.

In commodities, following yesterday’s steep declines, a result of a global sell off in risk assets and bearish EIA data, crude markets firmly in negative territory, albeit off yesterday’s. WTI Nov’ 19 and Brent Nov’ 19 futures for now appear bound within USD 52.20/bbl – USD 52.90/bbl and USD 57.20/bbl – USD 57.90/bbl parameters respectively. Comments/updates from energy ministers did little to move the dial for the complex; the Saudi Energy Minister Abdilaziz said the country has capacity back at 11.3mln BPD, although production has stabilised at 9.9mln BDP (in line with OPEC+ production cut commitments), while Venezuela’s Energy Minister said production is currently below 1mln bpd. Russian Energy Minister Novak, speaking about global demand, said 2019 global oil demand is to grow by 1.0-1.1mln BPD and oil demand growth is to recover in 2020 following a weak 2019. He added that there is no need for an extraordinary OPEC+ meeting at the present. With Saudi production now back at pre-attack levels, and geopolitical risk premia appearing to recede, the focus of crude markets appears to have returned to the global economy; as such, todays US ISM non-manufacturing and tomorrow’s NFP are likely to be pivotal determinants of near-term direction. Following yesterday’s bid that took the precious metal back above the USD 1500/oz mark, Gold prices appear to have stabilised, awaiting further impetus in the form of the important aforementioned economic data releases over the next two days. Copper, meanwhile, slid towards yesterday’s lows around the USD 2.550/lbs mark, as a boost to the red metal from a softer buck faded.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 1.65m, prior 1.65m
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 213,000
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 61.7
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 50.9, prior 50.9; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 51
  • 10am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.4%
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. -0.2%, prior 1.4%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.3%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, prior 0.2%; Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.5%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.2%
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 55, prior 56.4

Fed Speakers

  • 8:30am: Fed’s Quarles Speaks at Banking Conference in Brussels
  • 12:10pm: Fed’s Mester takes Part in a Panel Discussion on Inflation
  • 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks at Community Forum in Houston
  • 6:35pm: Fed’s Clarida Discusses Economy, Monetary Policy in New York

DB’s Jim Reid Concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have spent another 24 hours dealing with the reverberations from Tuesday’s shocking ISM manufacturing print. We showed yesterday that on this and the other global PMIs, equities look overvalued at the moment. Over the next couple of days markets have several key data points to help assess whether a global manufacturing recession is spreading into the wider economy. Before tomorrow’s much anticipated September US employment report, today we’ve got a very important ISM US non-manufacturing report to dissect as well as the final services PMIs in Europe.

In terms of expectations, for the ISM the consensus is sitting at a still comforting 55.2 following a 56.4 print in August however our US economists are more bearish at 54.1. That being said, they’re most interested in the employment component. As a reminder last month this fell to 53.1 and to the lowest since March 2017. Our colleagues note that while this series does not tell us much about the monthly changes in employment, it has historically been a leading indicator of the overall trend in service-sector job growth. So, further deterioration would send a more concerning signal to monetary policymakers about the labour market outlook. In terms of Europe, remember that the flash services reading 10 days ago saw a surprise and worrying fall to 52.0, when expectations had been for a print of 53.3. The services series has held up much better than manufacturing, and indeed the recent gap between the two is the widest since 2009. That said, the fall in the flash print to its lowest level since January has heightened concerns that services will resolve lower to catch down to manufacturing. For today’s print, consensus expectations are for no changes from the flash print.

Ahead of the bumper data barrage it’s fair to say that October hasn’t been too kind for markets so far with the S&P 500 (-1.78%) and NASDAQ (-1.56%) enduring another painful day yesterday. Auto names (-3.55%) struggled following the latest vehicle sales numbers and a -2.21% drop for oil hurt the energy sector (-2.61%), after inventory data showed another surprising build in US stockpiles. A very slightly below-market ADP print (135k vs. 140k expected but with -38k of revisions) didn’t help either. Despite a modest rebound in the late afternoon to close above their lows, the three major US indexes, the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW all had their worst day since August. The moves were even worse in Europe where the STOXX 600 closed down -2.70% – the worst day since last December and that now means the two-day decline for the index is -3.98%. The moves also followed the WTO Airbus ruling going in favour of the US, albeit an outcome that was expected. That said, the US did move swiftly toward retaliatory tariffs, which the White House will reportedly announce today. The measures are said to include 10% duties on aircraft and 25% on agriculture and other products, covering $7.5 billion of imports from Europe and will go into effect on October 18. Unlike other tariffs instituted by President Trump, these measures are sanctioned by the WTO in response to excessive subsidies to Airbus. The question now though is what the EU does in response. Further, in an overnight statement Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said that the levies will “have a negative impact on not only U.S. airlines but also U.S. jobs, suppliers and air travelers,” adding that they’ll bring “insecurity and disruption” to the wider aerospace industry.

Meanwhile the VIX jumped above 21 for the first time in over a month while credit markets were also weaker with US HY spreads +14.2bps wider. Treasuries continued their post ISM rally with 2y and 10y yields down -6.8bps (down a further -1bps this morning) and -4.3bps (down a further -1.4bps) yesterday which means the 2s10s curve is back above 10bps for the first time since 7 August. Some good news, but the flattening damage may well have been done several months and quarters ago given the usual lag. Other safe havens that saw a bid yesterday were Gold (+1.43%) which is pushing above $1,500/oz again and safe haven currencies like the Yen (+0.56%).

This morning in Asia markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (-2.03%), Hang Seng (-0.48%) and ASX (-2.16%) all heading lower. Markets in China and South Korea are closed for holidays. Yields on 10yr JGBs are down -1.9bps this morning to -0.191%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.23%.

As for overnight data releases, Japan’s final September services and composite PMIs came out in line with the initial read at 52.8 and 51.5 respectively.

The UK government formally published their proposals yesterday to replace the Irish backstop provision in the Withdrawal Agreement, which has proven the most contentious part of the Brexit deal reached under former Prime Minister May. Under the new proposals there would be a single regulatory zone covering both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland for goods, aligning Northern Irish regulations for goods with those of the EU. However, the single regulatory zone would rest on the consent of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive, both before the end of the transition period and “every four years afterwards.” The other proposal of interest is that Northern Ireland would remain part of the UK’s customs territory, rather than the EU one. In order to avoid customs checks at the border, the letter proposed that customs processes “should take place on a decentralised basis, with paperwork conducted electronically as goods move between the two countries, and with the very small number of physical checks needed conducted at traders’ premises or other points on the supply chain.”

In his conference speech earlier in the day, Prime Minister Johnson described the proposals as “constructive and reasonable”, but also said in reference to a no-deal Brexit that “it is an outcome for which we are ready”. In a promising sign if a deal is to be passed through Parliament, the Conservatives’ allies from the DUP in Northern Ireland voiced support for the proposals. However their votes will count for nothing unless the EU are actually willing to agree a deal along these lines with the UK. Remember there are just 4 weeks remaining until the current Brexit deadline on October 31. But the passage of the Benn Act complicates matters, as MPs have legislated that if Johnson hasn’t got a deal agreed by the 19 October, he has to ask for a 3-month extension to the Article 50 process.

The initial responses from the European side has been mixed. Top EU negotiator Michel Barnier said that “there is progress” being made, but “lots of work still needs to be done,” while Commission President Juncker welcomed the “positive advances” but he maintained that there are still issues over the proposed customs arrangements. Juncker emphasized that he will “listen carefully” to Irish Prime Minister Varadkar’s opinions. For his part, Varadkar said that customs checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland would show “bad faith” compared to prior commitments. Elsewhere, the European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt said late yesterday that the initial reaction to the UK proposals is ‘not positive’. It’s supportive that the EU haven’t rejected the plans out of hand, but it still feels hard to see how the EU can support them. The best case scenario is surely that it’s the basis for more negotiations and that the stars can somehow be aligned in more intense negotiations. A long shot still. Meanwhile, the Times of London reported overnight that the EU is ready to grant another Brexit extension beyond October 31 even if PM Boris Johnson doesn’t sign the letter making the request. As for the market impact, the pound initially weakened -0.61% but ultimately retraced this to close flat after the proposals were not completely dismissed by the Europeans. The FTSE (-3.23%) actually had its worst day since 20 January 2016 as it slightly underperformed it’s peers as a no-deal Brexit probability seemed to increase slightly.

Over in the US, Senator Bernie Sanders halted his presidential campaign events after he was hospitalised with a heart issue. His campaign said that he had two stents inserted into a clogged artery and will be recovering for at least the next few days. At the margin, the news could benefit other candidates’ campaigns, perhaps especially that of Senator Elizabeth Warren. The betting market-implied odds that Warren wins the Democratic nomination rose 7 percentage points yesterday to 52%.

The most notable Fedspeak came from NY Fed President Williams, who struck a surprisingly noncommittal tone. He said the employment situation is strong, but global growth is lagging and trade uncertainties linger. It’s likely that he wants to wait for tomorrow’s payrolls report before firmly committing to a rate cut, or to a hold, for this month’s meeting. He was also asked about disruptions in repo markets, and only responded by talking about what has recently happened, with little in the way of forward-looking comments. At the margin, this lowers the odds that the Fed will announce a resumption of balance sheet growth at this month’s meeting.

To the day ahead now, which for data this morning includes the final September services and composite PMIs in Europe along with August PPI for the Euro Area. This afternoon in the US all eyes will be on the aforementioned September ISM non-manufacturing, while other data due out includes final August factory, durable and capital goods orders, along with the latest jobless claims reading. Away from the data the next line of Fed officials due to speak include Evans this morning and then Quarles, Mester, Kaplan and Clarida this afternoon. Over at the ECB we’re also due to hear from Guindos, Rehn and Holzmann while the BoE’s Tenreyro speaks this afternoon.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 67.62 POINTS OR 0.26%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 436.87 POINTS OR 2.01%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.10%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed/Oil UP TO 52.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and 657.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  // LAST AT 7.1483 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1338 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Hong Kong

Retail sales is a disaster because of the continuous riots

(zerohedge)

“Hong Kong Is A Disaster” – Retail Sales Routed As Bitcoin Volumes Hit Record High

European luxury-goods stocks tumbled as data show the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong are taking an increasing toll on the city’s economy, with retail sales crashing by a record amount in August.

As Goldman Sachs details, August retail sales growth (in value terms) was down 23% yoy, the largest decline on record. On a month-over-month basis after seasonal adjustment, the value of retail sales contracted by around 12.5% in August vs -5.2% in July.

Clothing and footwear, department stores and jewellery, watches and clocks retail sales saw material deterioration. Jewellery, watches and clocks retail sales contracted 47.4% in August, vs -24.3% in July. Clothing and footwear retail sales were down 32%yoy, vs -13% yoy in July, and department store sales declined by 29.9% yoy in August, vs -10.4% yoy in August. Supermarkets, food/drinks and fuel retail sales year-over-year growth improved slightly in August vs July.

In volume terms, retail sales growth showed similar patterns. Headline retail sales volume growth was -25.3% year-over-year, the largest decline on record. Jewellery, watches and clocks showed the biggest deceleration to -50.7% yoy in August, vs -26.4% yoy in July.

And this has had a direct impact on Europe’s luxury-good makers… broadly.

Swatch falls 2.8% in Zurich, extending YTD losses to 11%, among the biggest losers on Switzerland’s benchmark SMI Index
Shares in Swiss peer Richemont, which owns brands such as Cartier, down 2%.

Moncler eases 1.9% in Milan while Hugo Boss sheds 2.4% in Frankfurt; LVMH (-1.9%), Kering (-2.9%) and Hermes (-2.3%) all down in Paris.

Burberry down 2.5% as of 11:05 a.m. in London trading, among the biggest decliners on the Europe Stoxx 600 Personal & Household Goods Index.

And Prada closed down 2% on the Hong Kong Exchange.

As Bloomberg reports, Co-CEO and designer Miuccia Prada said “Hong Kong is a disaster, like for everybody,” speaking at a runway show in Paris Tuesday.

“You can’t compensate those kind of numbers,” said Lorenzo Bertelli, Prada’s head of marketing and communication.

And judging by last night’s escalation, things will not improve anytime soon, and as Goldman concludes, the ongoing street protests since June have continued to affect business and leisure travel and spending (and recently cut our forecast for HK real GDP growth in Q3 to -2% yoy, and our 2019 full year GDP growth forecast is now at -0.6% yoy.)

Additionally, speaking at a conference in Amsterdam this morning, Kyle Bass, the founder of Dallas-based hedge fund Hayman Capital Management, confirms Hong Kong faces a “severe” economic decline, adding that “a significant amount of capital and investment to leave Hong Kong in next 12 to 18 months.”

Bass says Hong Kong’s economy is being drained of liquidity and predicts that its FX reserves will worsen for September and October, calling Hong Kong’s economy a “giant question mark.”

And in case you wondered where the capital was flowing…BTC Demand in Hong Kong Reaches Record Highs:

Source: Coin.Dance

As eToro noted, while it’s hard to identify the source of trading volume, spiking demand for BTC could be a sign that some Hong Kong protesters are seeing bitcoin as a way to opt-out of the local economy that is run by governments and financial institutions

END
Hong kong bans masks in the hope that it will curtail the rioting. The citizens will figure out other ways to protest
(zerohedge)

Hang Seng Rallies As Traders Hope ‘Mask Ban’ Will End Hong Kong Protests

In a move that investors hope will calm the incessant protests that have brought Hong Kong’s economy to a standstill over the past four months, Chief Executive Carrie Lam and her top advisors are holding an emergency meeting to impose a ban on wearing masks in public.

Lam will hold a meeting of the executive council, her de facto cabinet, to impose the ban as soon as Friday, SCMP reports.

The ban will function under a tough colonial-era emergency law. The hope is that it will end the demonstrations, which have devolved into skirmishes between protesters and Hong Kong police. As demonstrators disrupted China’s ‘National Day’ on Tuesday, HK police were forced to fire six live rounds, one of which struck a teenage protester who was later arrested. Police arrested nearly 270 protesters that day.

Per the SCMP, the colonial-era Emergency Regulations Ordinance, first introduced in 1922, grants Lam the authority to “make any regulations whatsoever which he [or she] may consider desirable in the public interest” in case of “emergency or public danger.” It’s pretty clear that the protests now constitute a ‘public danger’, as Beijing has alleged for months now.

Hong Kong stocks rallied on the news, reversing an earlier decline as traders continue to grapple with some disappointing economic data. The Hang Seng Index rallied as much as 0.6%, after earlier falling as much as 0.9%.

As one analyst told BBG, the anti-mask law gives investors hope that the protests might end soon.

“The anti-mask law at least gives investors some hope that it could be a way to cool down the protests,” said Steven Leung, executive director at Uob Kay Hian. “Some protesters might think twice if they can be identified during protests. That’s why we see local shares rallying, such as developers and retailers.”

SCMP’ssource said the violence on Tuesday made passing the anti-mask law an urgent issue.

“We cannot wait for the Legislative Council, which will only meet on October 16 at the earliest,” he said.

During an appearance on a Thursday radio program, Executive Council member Ronny Tong Ka-wah said that if he had a choice, he would choose to invoke the emergency mask law over imposing a curfew. The mask law doesn’t impact people who aren’t participating in the protests, he said.

But will the protesters obey? Or will they continue to don their masks in an act of defiance?

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

EU officials are cool to BoJo’s plan.  Remember you need all 27 members to affirm his plan and the chances that that will happen is zero

(zerohedge)

Enthusiasm For Johnson’s Brexit Plan Cools As PM Faces Off With Parliament

After greeting Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan with what Reuters described as “cautious optimism”, it appears several key players in the EU27 coalition have turned against the agreement, according to a leaked report published Thursday morning.

According to Reuters, “a European Parliament Brexit group believes that Johnson’s proposals ‘do not represent a basis for an agreement,’ according to the draft of a statement…ahead of release later in the day.”

The aspect of Johnson’s deal that appears to most rankle Europe is, ironically, a provision that gives Northern Ireland a vote on whether to remain a part of a post-Brexit regulatory zone that would also involve ‘devolved’ customs checks without requiring a hard border. This is Johnson’s proposal to replace the hated Irish Backstop, which Johnson and many of his fellow Tories say they can’t accept.

 

In addition to the objection from the European Parliament, one senior EU official said Johnson’s proposal “can’t fly” because it doesn’t offer enough assurances that there won’t be a return to a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which would constitute a violation of the Good Friday agreement.

Another EU official said Johnson’s proposal “needed to be reworked.”

Separately, a senior EU official said Johnson’s proposal “can’t fly”, largely because it did not offer a solution for the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland once the UK province has left the EU’s customs union.

“It does not contain any decent solution for customs. And it erects a hard border on the island of Ireland,” said the senior EU official.

“It would have to be fundamentally reworked,” an EU diplomat said, adding that time was short before the bloc’s leaders meet in Brussels in two weeks for a make-or-break Brexit summit on Oct. 17-18.

Offering a slightly more enthusiastic take, an official in the Irish government said Johnson’s plan was “the basis for discussions” but not “of an agreement.”

In Dublin, which is crucial to any deal, Junior Finance Minister Patrick O’Donovan said Johnson’s offer was the basis for discussions but not of an agreement.

Despite this setback, Johnson was trying to sell his deal to Parliament Thursday morning, inspiring a lengthy debate during PMQs. Johnson delivered his ‘ultimatum’ on Wednesday, telling the EU that it could either accept his plan, or accept responsibility for a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

END
this is deadly..We now have 70% of European bonds have sub zero yields
(seeking alpha)

70% of eurozone bonds have sub-zero yields

|By: , SA News Editor

Of the roughly €8.18T of eurozone government bonds traded on Tradeweb, 68.8% have a negative yield, data as of end-September showed.

While this was the highest share on record – the data goes back to mid-2016 – it was up just marginally from the August numbers.

Reasons that have pushed bond yields lower include growing recession risks, a bitter global trade war and central bank stimulus.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

Sweden

Gatestone provides a chilling example as to what happens when you mix migrants with regular fol.  Many municipalities are in shambles because of this.

a must read…

Gatestone)

Swedes Are Fleeing

Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

Swedes are on the move. Problems in many municipalities are prompting Swedes to leave for other areas with fewer socioeconomic problems. The issue has recently gained the attention of the Swedish mainstream media.

Take the small, picturesque town of Filipstad (population 10,000), for example. Swedish television recently made a documentary about the town, which finds itself in both a financial and an existential crisis.

 

“We are experiencing a population exchange. You can think of that what you want… But it is simply a statement of fact that this is actually what we are going through and we have to deal with it”, Jim Frölander, integration manager in the Filipstad municipality, says in the documentary.

Between 2012 and 2018, 640 native Swedes left the town, and 963 foreign-born people moved into the town. Those leaving are people of working age (20-64), which means that the municipality’s tax revenues are shrinking, exacerbating town’s financial crisis.

The largest influx of immigrants came during the migration crisis in 2015. Filipstad, according to the documentary, was one of the municipalities that received the highest number of immigrants as a percentage of its population. Claes Hultgren, head of the municipality, wrote in Filipstad’s latest financial report:

“In Filipstad, there are around 750 adults from Syria, Somalia, Eritrea, Afghanistan and Iraq…. In this group, unemployment and dependency are very high, while education levels are very low. This group runs the risk of ending in an eternal exclusion that is already heavily burdening the municipal economy.”

Hultgren explained that many of the newcomers do not have the qualifications to enter the labor market.

“[They] are maybe too old and illiterate, or have a very low educational level. We must accept that there will be some people who will need the support of society for their livelihood.”

According to the documentary, unemployment is at 80% among the non-Western foreign-born residents of the town, even while the town is suffering a severe lack of teachers and nurses. In ten years, Filipstad’s expenditures on social welfare have increased 200% — from 10 million kroner ($1 million) in 2009 to almost 30 million ($3.1 million) in 2018. The projection for 2019 is 31 million Swedish kroner ($3.2 million). This year, Filipstad simply does not have the 30 million kroner in its budget.

Filipstad is far from the only Swedish municipality to experience these problems.

As a consequence of taking in so many immigrants within a relatively short time span, not only during the extraordinary migration crisis in 2015 but overall in the years 2012-2017, municipalities are fighting high unemployment, a rise in child poverty and rising social welfare expendituresaccording to Frölander.

“It becomes much more visible in smaller municipalities. There you cannot isolate it [the problem] in a suburb and then [pretend] ‘business as usual’, because it affects the entire body of that society and that is what is going to happen in all of Sweden, too.”

Frölander is clear that he is not against immigration and thinks that the immigrants are “good people.”

Every fourth municipality and every third region, according to a report by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKL), had a budget deficit in 2018, wrote the journalist Lotta Gröning recently in an op-ed in the Swedish newspaper Expressen. Municipalities are supposed to receive an extra 5 billion kroner ($517 million) per year for three years, but Gröning writes that this sum is not nearly enough, as 22 billion kroner ($2.27 billion) is still “missing”:

“There is simply not enough money for schools, and [health] care — the core of the social democratic welfare state. The refugee wave put tremendous pressure, not least [on] poor municipalities and now the costs of social welfare are increasing. In addition, the population is getting older, and add to this a coming recession…

“The criticism [of the government] comes not only from local politicians, it also comes from former [Social Democratic] party leader Göran Persson, who warns about the municipalities’ vulnerable position. LO’s chairman Karl-Petter Thorwaldsson, also a member of the party’s executive committee, warns [Prime Minister] Stefan Löfven of the municipalities’ crisis and demands action…”

Swedes are leaving their towns and cities for other reasons as well, such as a lack of personal security. The frequently reported gang violence, assaults, shootings, bombs and car-torchings have been taking their toll. On August 31, Aftonbladet ran a story about Emma Zetterholm, who chose to leave Malmö with her family after living in the city for 18 years. “I still love Malmö but my family and I cannot live here” she told the newspaper. “The violence crept closer and closer to me, my relatives, friends and colleagues.”

Six years ago, Zetterholm moved into an idyllic area with old villas. Soon enough, however, car-torchings, shootings and explosions filled the night. An illegal nightclub operated close by and the noise around it — explosions and shootings — went on all night. Neighbors who complained received verbal threats and stones thrown through their windows. One day, a man was murdered in broad daylight, close to a playground full of people. At other times, children were nearly hit by bullets that had gone through windows.

Zetterholm explains that she felt that her family’s situation was bizarre but she still kept trying to convince herself that it was not that dangerous. She says it feels “awful” to be part of a trend where “well-educated, white middle class flee problematic areas.”

“I have tried to defend Malmö,” she said, “But the more time passes and you notice that there is no improvement, you eventually lose your resilience”.

At least ten families have left the area now, she said, many for other areas in the south of Sweden.

Many Swedes are leaving their cities, but some have decided to leave the country altogether. On September 4, an explosion occurred in front of an apartment building in Malmö. The blast was heard in many parts of the city. A Danish man in the neighborhood, Magne Juul, told Kvällsposten that after this latest bombing, he is now considering moving back to Denmark after living for 15 years in Malmö.

Former Minister of Labour Sven Otto Littorin, who now lives and works in Dubai, recently wrote on his Facebook page:

“I cannot say that I regret the decision to move abroad. We came to a country with one of the lowest reported crime rates in the world… The question is whether one dares and wants to move back [to Sweden]”.

Littorin, who also served in the past as Secretary of the Moderate Party, was prompted to write his post after reading about a Swedish boy who was abused, robbed and whose life was threatened by gangs, with Swedish authorities telling him not to report it to the police as this would make things ‘worse’ for him. “This was one of the vilest texts I’ve read in a long time” wrote the former minister about the story.

As a parent, you become angry, desperate…The result is that those who can, and can afford it, move. From Uppsala or Saltsjö Boo. To a quieter part of the country or abroad. Those who do not have the same opportunities [to move] remain where they are. It’s devastating…”

Sweden is, however, as documented by Statistics Sweden, among the countries in which the highest percentage of residents experience problems in the areas they live. In 2017, according to Statistics Sweden“About 13 percent of the population in Sweden experience problems in their own residential areas with crime, violence or vandalism. It is one of the highest proportions in Europe.”

By comparison, the other Nordic countries were placed among the countries with the lowest percentage of the population who experience such problems in their own residential area. In Norway, about 4% experience problems with violence, crime and vandalism. The corresponding proportions for Denmark and Finland were 8% and 6%, respectively.

It is little wonder, then, that many Swedes choose to leave their homes — either to look for Swedish cities that function better or other countries entirely.

END

MICHAEL EVERY OF RABOBANK DISCUSSES THE MAIN AREAS THAT ARE BOTHERING HIM TODAY

(MICHAEL EVERY)

Bern, Baby, Bern; This Go Inferno

Submitted by Michael Every of RaboBank

The pain in Spain falls mainly on the plane

I was truly torn today. The Daily headline ‘The Pain in Spain Falls Mainly on the Plane’ is Hunter Thompson-eque in being both completely inaccurate and yet indicative of what is actually going on. However, I was tempted to go with ‘Bern, baby, Bern; this go inferno’ instead, which is more accurate and seventies retro at the same time. Either works to summarize where we stand at the start of play today.

After all, the US has just won its case at the WTO over illegal EU subsidies to Airbus and is set to impose USD7.5bn of tariffs on everything from Spanish olives to German sausages to UK whiskey and knitwear. This will obviously do wonders for US-EU trade relations and geopolitical tensions, to say nothing for the economy – although there are of course substitutes for all of these that are Made in America. The EU can at least take comfort from the fact that this process was all handled by the WTO they want to protect as global arbiter: and that their eventual response when the WTO also rules that Boeing has been supported by illegal subsidies will be retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Yet we are talking about a 10% increase in the price of some goods and 25% in others, so around USD1bn in total, in a joint US-EU economy of over USD40 trillion; at the worst it will be double that when the EU responds: how fragile we must be if that butterfly on a wheel can threaten us. However, this was just what we all needed given economic slowdown and impeachment and populism, etc.

On the first point, consider that the US ADP report, which is usually a low-grade industrial olive oil to the monthly payrolls’ extra-virgin hand-pressed variety, disappointed yesterday, suggesting that perhaps the US labour market is seeing slower jobs growth; US auto sales also disappointed overall; oh, and Hong Kong retail sales collapsed 23% y/y, showing just how severe the problems are there, as early indicators for China in September also show more weakness. The Fed’s Williams yesterday said the US economy looked strong “in the rear-view mirror”. Isn’t that what central banks always fly by though? Moreover, AUD is clinging on to 0.67 by its fingernails. As an indication of how bad things are Down Under, despite a mini-bubble in Sydney and Melbourne forming all over again the Aussie press is talking about US bank research talking about Australia’s need to do QE of up to AUD200bn. That’s something I have been talking about for far longer, just without the AUD200bn figure: ‘Why only AUD200bn?’ is my question.

On the second point, the wheels on the US impeachment tank continue to turn despite the fact that no vote to actually begin proceedings has been held yet – but will it just trundle into a moat filled with alligators and crocodiles, like #Russiagate ultimately did?

And on the third point, yesterday saw US Democratic Party presidential nominee candidate Bernie Sanders, 78, have to cancel campaign events as he underwent heart surgery. Here’s hoping he makes a full recovery – but can he continue running? What this underlines to the market is the serious chance that the 2020 election will be between Donald Trump, who would be in his second term and hence ‘unleashed’, and Elizabeth Warren, who has pledged to impose a 2% wealth tax over USD50m, to attack corporate monopolies in the tech sector, big agri, and big pharma, whose Green New Deal could prove as fiscally expansionary as the Trump tax cut, and whose trade policies would end up being as tough on China as Trump’s. For an equity market that has long had a ‘heads I win, tails you lose’ approach to things, that’s an unhappy thought.

And all this happened on the same day that in the UK PM BoJo handed down his ultimatum to the EU: New Deal or No Deal. He is proposing some kind of techno jiggery-pokery over where customs checks would be located away from the Irish border, and that there would therefore be effectively two borders for four years post-Brexit. From the EU side, the view is still that there should be no borders, ever. Can we find compromise in days between a technicals-based and a principles-based proposal? Who knows: just as large a split is evident in the UK press, where the Guardian reports “dismay” behind the scenes in the EU, and that this idea is a non-starter, while the Telegraph says there is pressure on Dublin to bend, and that even Labour might support BoJo to get it through parliament.

So with the prospect of politics getting far too real for markets to enjoy, and of the economy’s prospects looking far less real, is it any wonder that equities slumped yesterday, and that bond yields did too? The US 10-year Treasury is once again a shade below 1.60%.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0963 UP .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.97 DOWN 0.198 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2318   UP   0.0015  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3332 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 67.62 POINTS OR .26%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 2,10%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 67.62 PTS OR .26%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN2.10% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 436.87  POINTS OR 2.01%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1504.50

silver:$17.65-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.57% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.06 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.95 DOWN 7 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.415% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.22%  DOWN 7   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.13%//DOWN 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.83 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 70 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.59% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.42% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0967  UP     .0007 or 7 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.86 DOWN .304 OR YEN UP 30  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2343 UP .0039 POUND UP 39  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 9 basis points to 1.3338

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1483    ON SHORE  (CLOSED)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1279  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6936 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.22%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.53 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.04 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.89 DOWN 12  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 44.90  0.63%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 338.58 POINTS OR 2.76%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 16.00 POINTS 0.30%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 10.00 POINTS or 0.11%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 13.27 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.28 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 57.59 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    65.15  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.03 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 3 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.59 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  52.28//

 

 

BRENT :  57.59

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.53..down 7 basis pts…did not buy the dow/nasdaq gains

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.04…down 5 pts and did not buy the dow/nasdaq gains.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0967 ( UP 7   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.86 DOWN .304 (YEN UP 30 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.89 DOWN 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2343 UP 39  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6936

the Russian rouble 65.15   down 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3338 DOWN 9 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1483  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1279 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.58%

 

The Dow closed UP 122.42 POINTS OR 0.047%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 87.02 POINTS OR 1.12%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.12 CLOSED DOWN 1.44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.056%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

The Hunt For Red October… Is Over

This is the worst start to Q3 in US equity markets since 2008…

It seems the stock market is playing chicken with The Fed – sell off to force dovish bias that The Fed would be loathe to disappoint BUT rally back to front-run The Fed’s dovish bias and you remove The Fed’s need to be dovish…

Source: Bloomberg

NOTE – the moment the market priced in another 25bps of cuts, stocks soared back.

“the hard part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch.”

China remains closed for Golden Week.

European stocks were lower (with FTSE worst) but chopped around on US ISM before the EU Close (Germany closed today)…

Source: Bloomberg

US markets were just comical – crashing on the dismal ISM data, then exploding higher (on no news) as the funds market priced in more rate-cuts – Nasdaq ended up over 1%!!! (after being down 1% in the morning)…

On the week, all US majors remain red, with Trannies the biggest laggards…

Nasdaq and Dow bounced perfectly off their 200DMA…

And while today’s big drop was bid (as we noted above on the back of market pricing in more easing), Gold remains the biggest winner since ISM Manufacturing tumbled…Gold is up 3%, S&P is down 3%

 

VIX topped 21 intraday again but ended lower on the day (and the term structure remains inverted)

 

“Most Shorted” Stocks soared on yet another short-squeeze…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Momo and Value continues to diverge this week…

Source: Bloomberg

1987 anyone?

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields all tumbled today but the short-end dropped dramatically (2Y -10bps, 30Y -5bps)

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields pushed back closer to 2.0% again today…

Source: Bloomberg

The 3M10Y yield curve remains inverted (and is the most accurate measure) but 2Y10Y has steepened dramatically this week, which as Jeff Gundlach noted, after the inversion, is the most dangerous time…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar fell out of bed on the ISM miss and never filled gap (into the red for the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

With China on holiday all week, offshore yuan is strengthening…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos drifted lower today but remain barely positive on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Precious metals rallied back into the green for the week as crude crumbled further…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures tested up to $1525, legging higher on the ISM Services data…

 

WTI Futures traded briefly with a $50 handle intraday.

 

Finally, we will take a brief victory lap as we warned the end of the surge in US macro data would come after the government fiscal year spendfest ended… and indeed, since the end of September, data has collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

And judging by the plunge in CEO confidence, things are about to get a whole lot worse in ‘hard’ data…

Sri Thiruvadanthai@teasri

BTW, Conference Board CEO Confidence came out yesterday. It is the only executive survey that I have found to be useful.

View image on Twitter

While top-down is not pretty, bottom-up is getting ugly too…

And just in case you weren’t nervous about tomorrow’s payrolls data… ISM Employment data suggests, you should be!

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading//THIS MORNING/USA

Dow Collapses 1300 Points Since Catacl-ISM, Oil & Bond Yields Plunge, Rate-Cut Odds Soar

Since ISM manufacturing disappointed, The Dow has plummeted 1300 points to its lowest since August…

Trannies are worse on the week, down over 6%…

Bond yields are tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

And crude is dropping…

As gold gains…

As rate-cut odds soar to 87%…

Source: Bloomberg

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks Panic-Bid – Erase PMI Plunge As Rate-Cut Odds Hit 90%

It appears the bad news is good news algos are back…

 

As stocks crashed after the dismal ISM data…

 

…the odds of an imminent rate-cut soared above 90%…

 

Don’t worry – The Fed will save us all, right?

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

The service sector is 70% of the uSA GDP. We now have the manufacturing sector catch a cold and the service sector caught pneumonia. This is why gold and silver burst higher on news that the uSA economy is truly in trouble

(zerohedge)

ISM Services Catches Manufacturing’s Cold – Tumbles To Weakest Since 2016

After a week of abysmal global PMIs (and US manufacturing’s collapse to a standstill), expectations were ever hopeful for a small bounce in ISM Services data (even though it did bounce surprisingly in August) to save the world (and stocks).

  • Markit Manufacturing BEAT – 51.1 (5mo highs)
  • Markit Services MEET – 50.9 (up from 50.7 in August)
  • ISM Manufacturing MISS – 49.1 (contractionary print well below expectations and 10 year lows)
  • ISM Services MISS – 52.6 (lowest since August 2016)

So, as always, a mixed bag – manufacturing rose to 5-month highs and/or dropped to 10-year lows; and services bounced modestly and/or plunged to weakest in 3 years…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the surface, employment stands out as a big drop…

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“A disappointing service sector PMI follows news of lacklustre manufacturing and means the past two months have seen one of the weakest back-to-back expansions of business activity since 2009, sending a signal of slower GDP growth in the third quarter. The surveys are consistent with the economy growing at a 1.5% annualised rate in the third quarter, with forward-looking indicators suggesting further momentum could be lost in the fourth quarter.”

“In particular, inflows of new business have almost stalled, with September seeing the smallest increase since 2009, and business expectations about the year ahead remain stuck at one of the gloomiest levels since at least 2012.

“In this environment, companies are taking an increasingly cost-conscious approach to payrolls, with September consequently seeing surveyed firms report a net drop in headcounts for the first time since 2010. This translates into non-farm payroll growth trending below 100,000.

Price pressures have also abated in line with the weak demand picture, suggesting official inflation gauges could likewise moderate in coming months.”

Globally, Composite PMIs are all trending down towards contraction (but Germany stands out)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, before the world starts to excuse these numbers by playing down the impact of manufacturing on the economy, here are a simple chart to explain why they’re wrong. While 86% of jobs are in the services economy (14% in manufacturing), manufacturing earnings make up a considerable majority 68% of S&P earnings (32% services), which means if we adjust the ISM Composite for this ‘real’ weight, things look considerably worse – contraction!

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr. Powell…

Source: Bloomberg

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Brandon Smith has an alternate view of Trump and what the elites are trying to do when they bring down the economy.  They want all the blame onto Trump

a  good read..

(Brandon Smith)

Brandon Smith: Trump Cannot Be Anti-Globalist While Working With Global Elites

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

In the summer of 2016 during the election campaign I examined the Trump phenomenon and how it relates to the globalist narrative. I concluded that Trump would be president based on the fact that having a (supposedly) hardcore nationalist and populist conservative in the White House over the next four years would in fact be highly beneficial to the elites. At the time the Federal Reserve was getting ready to tighten liquidity, which would inevitably lead to market volatility and a crash in fundamentals. By the end of Trump’s first term, or perhaps at the beginning of his second term, the recessionary crisis would become obvious to the general public. Trump, and all conservatives, would be blamed for the resulting disaster that the banking elites engineered.

During the election it was unclear to me if Donald Trump was a puppet of the elites. He could have simply been a convenient scapegoat for the coming crash. Today, it is obvious that he is indeed controlled opposition.

 

As I’ve noted in numerous articles, Trump’s associations with the globalists go way back. He was saved by the Rothschild banking family from crippling debts in multiple property developments in Atlantic City during the 1990’s. The Rothschild agent that handled Trump’s bailout was none other than Wilbur Ross, the senior managing director of Rothschild New York. Ross is now Trump’s Commerce Secretary, which indicates that his relationship to the Rothschilds continues to this day.

In 2016 Trump offered positions in the White House to a vast array of global elitists, some of them from the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank whose stated goals include the erasure of borders and the end of national sovereignty. These members include:

Elaine Chao, United States Secretary of Transportation

Jamie Dimon, Member of Strategic and Policy Forum

Jim Donovan, Deputy Treasury Secretary

Larry Fink, Member of Strategic and Policy Forum

Neil M. Gorsuch, Supreme Court Justice

Vice Admiral Robert S. Harward, National Security Advisor (declined appointment)

Trump then went on to bring in long time elites with ties to the globalist establishment and the Federal Reserve such as John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Robert Lighthizer, Larry Kudlow, and Steve Mnuchin, etc. The list goes on and on…

During the campaign, Trump consistently (and rightly) criticized Hillary Clinton’s many ties to the banking cabal, including her close relationship with internationalist banks like Goldman Sachs. He also made multiple criticisms against globalism.  Then, he argued that the economic recovery under Obama was actually a massive financial bubble – the markets were artificially propped up by the Federal Reserve’s stimulus and low interest rates, and indicators like unemployment stats were rigged.  Again, this was all true.

Yet, after his election Trump proceeded to saturate his cabinet with the same banking elites he once attacked, and then he took FULL CREDIT for the markets and the fake employment and GDP numbers only months later.

Once in office, Trump suddenly abandoned his promise to indict the Clintons, and any pursuit of fighting the globalists fell by the wayside. Instead, Trump turned all his attention on China, opening the door to an economic war as a useful distraction for the globalists while they continued to pull the plug on financial life support. If Trump was going to do battle with the globalist establishment, why would he surround himself with so many elites and why would he hold up China as a primary threat instead of global banking institutions?

We still hear Trump talk about how the Federal Reserve is run by ignorant people, and how the “future belongs to patriots, not globalists”, but Trump’s hyperfocus on the markets and the trade war with China do nothing to combat the globalist agenda. In fact, these actions help the globalists immensely.

Trump is sticking to the pattern of criticizing the Fed’s higher interest rates as the cause of the economic downturn while AT THE SAME TIME continuing to take full credit for the same fraudulent economic data and the market bubble he once admonished.  What does this accomplish?  Well, Trump’s job is to undermine conservatives and the liberty movement by pretending to be one of us.  His attacks on the Fed, while legitimate (in part), are meaningless if he maintains that he is the sole reason why the economy and the markets move.

In essence, the globalists are using Trump to delegitimize anti-Fed arguments by attaching him to those arguments AND the failing economy simultaneously.  As he falls from fiscal grace, the intent is that all anti-fed and anti-globalist arguments will die with him.  Who would want to take the same ideological stance as the man who brought the global economy to ruin?  Currently, the mainstream media is focusing on Trump’s hypocrisy in demanding a weaker dollar after calling for a STRONGER dollar during his campaign.  They are also insinuating that Trump is trying to deflect blame onto the Fed while his trade war is the “real cause” of the recession.  I’ve been warning about this outcome for quite some time, and now it’s happening.

Trump’s bizarre behavior vindicates my deepest suspicions during the election – Trump is not just an unwitting scapegoat, he is a participant in the game, playing a theatrical role, a bumbling villain. In the script, he is the anti-globalist who trips over his own hubris and causes the downfall of the American empire. He is playing the pig-headed conservative that proves once and for all why conservative philosophy is “evil” and why the leftists were right all along. Part of his job is to co-opt the liberty movement, redirect its energies into pointless pursuits, and to make us look ridiculous or dangerous by the end of his presidency.

However, there is a bit of a conundrum forming for the elites…

Trump’s true nature is slowly being revealed as we cross the point of no return on the economy and the “global economic reset”.  When Trump openly supports Red Flag gun laws designed to usurp gun rights through back door confiscation, or when he commits to a military buildup by sending troops to Saudi Arabia in an obvious first step towards war with Iran, this causes many conservatives in the liberty movement to question Trump’s loyalties (as they should).  The elites have to find a way to keep conservatives and liberty activists blindly riding the Trump train for as long as possible, for if we begin to question the narrative too soon, it becomes harder for them to draw us into supporting actions which will be blamed for the burgeoning economic and geopolitical crisis.

To be sure, some people in the liberty movement have attached themselves to Trump so completely that there is no escape.  They will now be tempted to double down on their defense of his actions and his associations, forever claiming that Trump is “playing 4D chess” and that he is “keeping his enemies close”, no matter how insane these assertions are.  Some have even argued that conservatives should “go to war” if Trump is impeached.  This is foolish.  Most of us are NOT interested in fighting a civil war over Trump.  If we fight a civil war, it will certainly not be over a puppet of the banking establishment.

Some of these activists are well meaning, but they are playing right into the hands of globalists.  Others are so desperate to maintain relevancy that they will say anything to get attention.

It is vital that liberty activists understand that the Trump presidency is a psyop aimed first and foremost AT THEM. As the leftist media outlet Bloomberg once happily predicted in an editorial titled ‘The Tea Party Meets Its Maker’, Trump could absorb conservative movements (those they called the “Tea Party”) and destroy them once and for all.

Recent events and Trump’s rhetoric are carefully staged to make him appear anti-globalist, but the aggressive nature of this propaganda was predictable. The elites have to draw conservatives back into the fold somehow, and so they are throwing as many crumbs as they can from Trump’s table without him actually accomplishing anything in our favor.

Getting rid of John Bolton was the beginning of the latest psyop campaign, as Bolton represents a hated element among many liberty activists and the establishment had no choice but to finally reduce his footprint in the White House. However, this was too little too late, as many conservatives are already well aware of the many other elites permeating Trump’s cabinet. He would have to get rid of ALL of them in order to impress us. And so, the elites moved on to phase two…

The latest Ukrainian scandal and the potential impeachment of Trump is a perfect example of globalist reverse psychology. Like Russiagate, the impeachment inquiry will likely go nowhere, and it’s not meant to go anywhere.  The elites have no intention of removing Trump from office and they never did.  The purpose of the Ukraine scandal is actually twofold:

First, it will indeed pull many conservatives back onto the Trump train as they assume the establishment is “out to get him” even though he is working directly with them.

Second, the Ukraine scandal will blow back on Joe Biden, removing him from the Democratic running for president, leaving the door open for either Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.  The elites do not appear to want Biden in 2020 and are constructing a narrative in which he bows out of the race or loses extensive ground in the primaries.  I continue to predict, as I did in July, that Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic candidate in 2020 (some people laughed when I suggested this in July…I don’t see too many of them laughing now as Warren pulls into a virtual tie with Biden in the polls).  Whether or not this will translate to a second term for Trump, or the end of the line, it is too early to tell.

I would note, however, that Warren was the first Democratic candidate to suggest that an economic crash was on the horizon, and I believe this is setting the stage for her to become an “I told you so” candidate in 2020.  If this is the case, then Trump is probably slated to lose the election.

Another crumb thrown to conservatives is the sudden reopening of discussion on the Clinton emails.  This will lead some liberty activists to assume that MAYBE, this time, Trump is going to follow through on his claim that he would investigate and prosecute the Clintons.  I say this, though I think many reading this already know:  Trump is not going to touch the Clintons. But he will pretend he is looking into the matter if it helps lure conservatives back into the false narrative, but that is all.

Trump’s UN speech in which he criticized globalism was the latest and perhaps the most blatant attempt to sucker conservatives into thinking maybe Trump is indeed “playing 4D chess”. He’s not. Rather, Trump is playing the role he has always played, just as he played his role on WWE Wrestling, or his role in The Apprentice; it is Trump’s JOB to attack the globalists, and it is their job to PRETEND to attack him. All the while the real targets of attack are conservatives, sovereignty activists and freedom advocates.

What is the purpose of this facade, this fake wrestling match between Trump and the elites? To get conservatives invested in a false paradigm, to co-opt our movement and our momentum, and ultimately to chain us to Trump’s reputation and then drown us when he goes down. While activists wait around for Trump to take action against the globalists, they sit idle accomplishing very little. While activists put all their hopes in Trump as a solution to the globalist problem, they remain unprepared for the fallout when it’s revealed that he was a complete waste of time. The masterstroke of the elites using Trump as a weapon is that ONE MAN might be able to nullify the activism of millions.

The solution?  To remain continually vigilant of Trump’s rhetoric and policies and to call him out when he does anything that violates constitutional principles or anything that aids the globalists in their efforts to trigger an economic reset.  I have to laugh, because the globalists may have made a fatal error in relying on Trump as a means to bring down conservatives and the liberty movement.  By placing all their eggs in one basket (or all their strings on one puppet), they have left themselves open to influence by liberty activists.  The more we call out Trump on his strange behaviors, his connections to the establishment and his flip flopping, the less useful he is to them.  They will have to continually adapt their tactics to us (they already have been), or perhaps even postpone efforts to crash the markets or implement draconian Red Flag laws.  By our investigative efforts, we can buy time for the movement to grow, and this bodes ill for the elites in the long run.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

END
Kroger has a huge number of employees with the many grocery outlets that it owns (443,000 employees).  They are going to lay off hundred as the turnaround just did not work
(zerohedge)

And It Begins: Kroger Lays Off Hundreds Amid Failed Turnaround

Earlier this month, Kroger Co. announced a disappointing 2Q19 earnings call after CEO Rodney McMullen warned that the grocery chain wouldn’t reconfirm its three-year forecast to hit profit targets amid a turnaround effort. As a result, Kroger said this week that it would start the process of laying off hundreds of employees across the family of grocery stores it owns.

“As part of ongoing talent management, many store operating divisions are evaluating middle management roles and team structures with an eye toward keeping resources close to the customer,” a Kroger spokesperson said in a statement. “Store divisions operate independently, but all of them are taking steps to ensure they have the right talent in the right store leadership positions.”

Kroger didn’t specify how many job cuts were anticipated — but sources told CNBC that it’s likely to be in the hundreds.

The company’s turnaround effort is showing signs of distress, and macroeconomic headwinds in the economy could produce a weakening consumer that would contribute to declining retail sales next year.

 

The grocery chain, which also owns Harris Teeter, Ralphs, Fred Meyer, has 443,000 full-time and part-time employees across its stores as of fiscal 2018.

The layoffs were announced as the company increases technology investments into e-commerce, automation, artificial intelligence, last-mile deliveries, and meal kits. Kroger is trying to stay ahead or at least compete with Amazon and Walmart.

The profit warning earlier this month from McMullen sent shares lower in the last 14 sessions, down nearly 4.5%.

Labor costs continue to be a significant issue for Kroger, as unions continue to gain ground ahead of the 2020 Election, CNBC noted. Kroger, unlike Amazon and Walmart, has a unionized workforce, that has caused tremendous margin compression as the company struggles with unwanted expenses tied to union contracts.

“Our financial results continue to be pressured by inefficient healthcare and pension costs, which some of our competitors do not face,” CFO Gary Millerchip told analysts earlier this month.

Kroger’s failed turnaround into the possibility of a recession in 2020 could result in more job cuts.

 end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Seems that the Democrats are starting to face the music that they tried to interfere in the 2016 election by trying to get dirt on trump.  John Solomon has all the evidence needed

(zerohedge)

Solomon Hits Back With Receipts After MSM Denies DNC-Ukraine Collusion Attempt In 2016

While Democrats scramble to accuse President Trump of attempting to interfere with the 2020 US election by asking Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter, the MSM has been hard at work trying to discredit proof that a DNC contractor begged Ukraine for ‘dirt’ on the Trump campaign in 2016. 

You know, election meddling.

As detailed in a 2017 Politico report that MSNBC‘s Katy Tur called Russian propaganda last week, DNC contractor and former Bill Clinton White House employee Alexandra Chalupa approached the Ukrainian embassy to solicit ‘dirt’ on the Trump campaign, and convince then-president Petro Poroshenko to help.

Now watch MSNBC‘s Katy Tur called this “Russian propaganda.”

Trump War Room

@TrumpWarRoom

This is stunning. Watch @MSNBC‘s @KatyTurNBC deny Ukraine meddled in the 2016 election and call a @Politico report authored by @kenvogel “Russian propaganda.” https://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/ukraine-sabotage-trump-backfire-233446 

As reported by The Hill‘s John Solomon in May, “In its most detailed account yet, the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington says a Democratic National Committee (DNC) insider during the 2016 election solicited dirt on Donald Trump’s campaign chairman and even tried to enlist the country’s president to help.”

In written answers to questions, Ambassador Valeriy Chaly’s office says DNC contractor Alexandra Chalupa sought information from the Ukrainian government on Paul Manafort’s dealings inside the country in hopes of forcing the issue before Congress.

Chalupa later tried to arrange for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to comment on Manafort’s Russian ties on a U.S. visit during the 2016 campaign, the ambassador said.

Chaly says that, at the time of the contacts in 2016, the embassy knew Chalupa primarily as a Ukrainian American activist and learned only later of her ties to the DNC. He says the embassy considered her requests an inappropriate solicitation of interference in the U.S. election. –The Hill

Appearing on Fox News‘ “Hannity” on Tuesday, Solomon pushes back:

Let’s start with something that’s important about this. There is a media narrative that is false. How do we know it’s false? Because the documents I possess show it’s false. So let’s start with one of my favorites – this was Katy Tur on Friday night and many others across the weekend said “there is no evidence that the Ukraine Embassy was ever asked for help – to help the Democratic National Committee. In fact, Katy Tur called it Russian propaganda.”

“I have a statement from the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington. On the record, from their sitting Ambassador in Washington, that in fact Alexandra Chalupa the DNC contractor, came to the Ukraine embassy in spring 2016 and asked for help in finding dirt on Donald Trump in the hopes of staging a Congressional hearing to hurt Donald Trump in the fall election of 2016. That is the Ukraine Embassy’s on the record statement.”

In addition, they state that Ms. Chalupa also asked for the Ukraine President to visit the United States and spend time with an investigative reporter trying to turn up dirt on Donald Trump and Paul Manafort. What did the Embassy do? They say they recognized this request for what it was; an improper request to influence the election, and they refused to cooperate with Ms. Chalupa.”

Watch:

END
Seems that the Democrats are very worried about Barr going to Italy finding out the origin of the Russia gate story,  In essence it really begins with Mifsud and morphs to Australian Downer and then the whole game begins.
(zerohedge)

Graham Asks Foreign Countries To Cooperate With Russiagate Origin Investigation

Following a Tuesday report by the New York Times that President Trump “pressed” Australia’s Prime Minister into cooperating with Attorney General William Barr’s investigation into the origins of the Mueller probe, the MSM lost their marbles – bloviating (without articulating) that Trump’s discussion was beyond the pale, and Trump clearly coerced him into something.

Less than an hour later, Australian PM Scott Morrison put their aspersions to bed – stating “The Australian Government has always been ready to assist and cooperate with efforts that help shed further light on the matters under investigation. The PM confirmed this readiness once again in conversation with the President.”

To be clear, the left feels that any investigation of potential FBI wrongdoing is off-limitsPerhaps they’re afraid of what Barr and his team may uncover?

 

Related:The media has no reason to blast William Barr for his doing his job (The Hill)

On Wednesday, perhaps in an effort to get ahead of Democrat efforts to undermine Barr, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) sent a letter to three foreign governments, urging them to cooperate with the Justice Department’s probe into the origins of the Russia probe.

Graham’s letter was addressed to Italy, Austria and the United Kingdom.

“That the attorney general is holding meetings with your countries to aid in the Justice Department’s investigation of what happened is well within the bounds of his normal activities. He is simply doing his job,” wrote Graham, adding “your country’s continued cooperation with Attorney General Barr as the Department of Justice continues to investigate the origins and extent of foreign influence in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.”

Graham noted in his letter that “it appears” the United States used “foreign intelligence as part of their efforts to investigate and monitor the 2016 election.

Graham had said earlier this week that he was planning to send the letters in the wake of the New York Times reporting that Trump had reached out to the Australian government to assist Barr as part of the DOJ investigation. The Justice Department subsequently confirmed the report.

“This New York Times article is an effort to stop Barr. … What are they afraid of? This really bothers me a lot that the left is going to try to say there’s something wrong with Barr talking to Australia, Italy and the United Kingdom,” Graham said during a Fox News interview earlier this week. –The Hill

Barr has reportedly been in contact with UK and Italian officials.

In May, President Trump said he wanted Attorney General William Barr to investigate the UK, Australia and Ukraine for their roles in the ‘greatest hoax in the history of our country.’

“It’s the greatest hoax probably in the history of our country and somebody has to get to the bottom of it. We’ll see. For a long period of time, they wanted me to declassify and I did,” he said.

After the Mueller report made clear that Trump and his campaign had in no way conspired with Russia during hte 2016 election, Democrats immediately pivoted to whether Trump obstructed the investigation. Trump and his supporters, however, immediately pivoted to the conduct of the US intelligence community, including the involvement of foreign actors and possibly their governments.

Meanwhile, an email exchange in late 2016 referred to the infamous Steele Dossier as “crown material,” suggesting UK intelligence may have played a role in the opposition research conducted by former MI6 spy Christopher Steele on behalf of the Clinton campaign.

*** (As we noted in May) ***

Moreover, much of “Operation Crossfire Hurricane” – the FBI’s official investigation into the Trump campaign – occurred on UK soil, which is perhaps why the New York Times reported last September that the UK begged Trump not to declassify ‘Russiagate’ documents ‘without redaction.’

Shortly after he announced his involvement with the Trump campaign, aide George Papadopoulos was lured to London in March, 2016, where Maltese professor and self-described Clinton foundation member Joseph Mifsud fed him the rumor that Russia had damaging information on Hillary Clinton. It was later at a London bar that Papadopoulos would drunkenly pass the rumor to Australian diplomat Alexander Downer (who FBI agent Peter Strzok flew to London to meet with the day after Crossfire Hurricane was launched).

Two weeks laterPapadopoulos would be bilked for information by Australian diplomat (another Clinton ally) Alexander Downer at a London bar, who relayed the Russia rumor to Australian authorities, which alerted the FBI (as the story goes), which ‘officially’ kicked off the US intelligence investigation.

No wonder Democrats are freaking out about Barr’s investigation…

end

This is unbelievable!!

(zerohedge)

Pelosi Flat-Out Lies; Claims Schiff Used ‘Trump’s Own Words’ In Fabricated Ukraine Call ‘Parody’

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) lied on Wednesday when she told ABC News‘s George Stephanopoulos that House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) “was using the president’s own words” when he read a fabricated account of a phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky during a hearing last week with the acting director of national intelligence.

Stephanopoulos pushed back, telling Pelosi “Well those weren’t the president’s words, it was an interpretation of the president’s words. They’re saying he made this up,” to which Pelosi replied “He did not make it up.” 

Robby Starbuck

@robbystarbuck

Okay what Twilight zone have I entered because this is 2x in one week where @GStephanopoulos called out a Democrat for lying. Here he asks Pelosi about Schiff lying about what’s said in the transcript and correcting her when she says it was Trump’s words.

Embedded video

Schiff compared Trump’s call with Zelensky as a “classic organized crime shakedown” in his opening remarks last week. “Shorn of its rambling character and in not so many words, this is the essence of what the president communicates,” Schiff added, before launching into his fabricated ‘parody’ of the call.

Schiff’s fabrication:

We’ve been very good to your country, very good,” Schiff says, doing a terrible impression of Trump. “No other country has done as much as we have, but you know what? I don’t see much reciprocity here. I hear what you want, I have a favor I want from you, though, and I’m gonna say this only seven times, so you better listen good. I want you to make up dirt on my political opponent, understand, lots of it.

In response, President Trump called Schiff a “lowlife” who should “resign and be investigated.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Rep. Adam Schiff totally made up my conversation with Ukraine President and read it to Congress and Millions. He must resign and be investigated. He has been doing this for two years. He is a sick man!

Trump expanded on Schiff during Wednesday comments:

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) introduced a resolution censuring Schiff for his remarks, saying in a Twitter video that the California Democrat “read a statement that was blatantly false, had no corresponding evidence, nor relationship to the actual transcript of President Trump’s conversation,” adding “What the chairman did is he read something that was made-up, totally false, and later had to excuse it by saying it was a parody.”

GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, meanwhile, tweeted “Chairman Adam Schiff has been lying to the American people for years. Now he is so desperate to damage the president that he literally made up a false version of a phone call.”

Rep Andy Biggs

@RepAndyBiggsAZ

MORE House members have joined my motion to condemn and censure Chairman Adam Schiff:@RepStefanik @RepMarkWalker
Rep. Dan Bishop@RepWebster @USRepGaryPalmer @RepCloudTX @RepDLamborn @RepFredKeller @RepBrianBabin @RepByrne @RepBillJohnson @RepLarryBucshon https://twitter.com/RepAndyBiggsAZ/status/1177638910345781248 

Rep Andy Biggs

@RepAndyBiggsAZ

Today, I introduced a motion to condemn and censure House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff. Chairman Schiff’s blatantly false retelling of @POTUS @realDonaldTrump’s conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky was inexcusable.

Embedded video

Congressman Dan Meuser

@RepMeuser

I too have signed onto the resolution to censure Chairman Adam Schiff. Presenting false versions of phone calls in a political attempt to damage @realDonaldTrump is unacceptable and beneath the office to which Schiff was elected. https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1179407035592519681 

Kevin McCarthy

@GOPLeader

Chairman Adam Schiff has been lying to the American people for years. Now he is so desperate to damage the president that he literally made up a false version of a phone call.

Enough is enough. I have signed a resolution to censure Schiff in the House of Representatives.

end

McCarthy Demands ‘Reckless’ Pelosi Suspend Impeachment Inquiry Until She Defines Procedures

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) fired off a Thursday letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) demanding that she halt the impeachment inquiry into President Trump until she can answer a series of questions defining her game plan for the process.

“As you know, there have been only three prior instances in our nation’s history when the full House has moved to formally investigate whether sufficient grounds exist for the impeachment of a sitting President,” writes McCarthy. “I should hope that if such an extraordinary step were to be contemplated a fourth time it would be conducted with an eye towards fairness, objectivity and impartiality.”

Unfortunately, you have given no clear indication as to how your impeachment inquiry will proceed – including whether key historical precedents or basic standards of due process will be observed.”

 

“In addition, the swiftness and recklessness with which you have proceeded has already resulted in committee chairs attempting to limit minority participation in scheduled interviews, calling into question the integrity of such an inquiry.””

McCarthy’s reference to participation refers to reports that House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) will limit GOP questions during Thursday’s testimony by former US Ukraine envoy, Kurt Volker.

In his letter to Pelosi, McCarthy asks a number of questions, including whether Pelosi plans to hold a full House vote on authorizing the impeachment inquiry, whether she plans to grant subpoena powers to both the committee chairs and the ranking members, and whether she’ll allow trump’s lawyers to attend the hearings.

After concerns were first raised about an “equal playing field” during the Volker session, Fox News is told Democrats made concessions and agreed to equal representation from Democratic and Republican counsels in the room. However, even though there are representatives from the Intelligence, Oversight and Foreign Affairs Committees, only the Intelligence Committee can ask questions. –Fox News

In response to McCarthy’s letter, President Trump tweeted “Leader McCarthy, we look forward to you soon becoming Speaker of the House. The Do Nothing Dems don’t have a chance!”

Pelosi appears to have a poor grasp on what she’s even trying to impeach Trump over – as evidenced by her Wednesday insistance that Rep. Schiff was “using the president’s own words” when he read a fabricated account of a phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky during a hearing last week with the acting director of national intelligence.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA the report among other things provides the major swamp stories.

@realDonaldTrump: All of this impeachment nonsense, which is going nowhere, is driving the Stock Market, and your 401K’s, down. But that is exactly what the Democrats want to do. They are willing to hurt the Country, with only the 2020 Election in mind!

If impeachment concern was a factor in the stock market, the NYT instigated the afternoon rally.

The NY Times’: @julianbarnes: The whistle-blower alerted a House Intel Committee staffer to the outlines of his accusations against Trump before filing his complaint, giving Schiff an early clue to what the administration was initially blocking the IG from delivering to Congress.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/us/politics/adam-schiff-whistleblower.html

Schiff: “We have not spoken directly with the whistleblower.” [Liar, liar pants on fire!]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1179480466874875910

Also, Schiff complained that the ODNI and WH were withholding the complaint from him.

Trump says Schiff ‘helped write’ whistleblower complaint, after House panel admits advance knowledge – “It shows that Schiff is a fraud. … I think it’s a scandal that he knew before,” Trump said, as the president of Finland stood at an adjacent podium. “I’d go a step further. I’d say he probably helped write it. … That’s a big story. He knew long before, and he helped write it too. It’s a scam.”..

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-adam-schiff-write-whistleblower-complaint-advance-knowledge

Ex-Ukraine prosecutor said he was told to back off probe of Biden-linked firm, files show

The new documents were shared with Fox News by sources familiar with the “urgent” briefing held by State Department Inspector General Steve Linick on Wednesday… Linick gave a closed-door briefing on Ukraine to aides from the Senate committees on Intelligence, Foreign Relations, Appropriations and Homeland Security, as well as aides from the House committees on Foreign Affairs, Intelligence, Appropriations and Oversight…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ukraine-prosecutor-biden-burisma-back-off-state-department-files

Besides the Schiff revelation, another bombshell appeared yesterday afternoon.

@JordanSchachtel: Bombshell. Rod Rosenstein was coordinating with both The New York Times and The Washington Post on stories. Emails seems to suggest he did it to promote his self-image and without the president’s clearance –

DOJ Docs Show Rosenstein Advising Mueller ‘the Boss’ Doesn’t Know about Their Communications – “I am with Mueller. He shares my views. Duty Calls.  Sometimes the moment chooses us.”… The documents also show… Rod Rosenstein was in direct communication with reporters from 60 Minutes, The New York Times and The Washington Post… “These astonishing emails further confirm the dishonest corruption behind Rosenstein’s appointment of Robert Mueller,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton…

https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-releases/judicial-watch-doj-docs-show-rosenstein-advising-mueller-the-boss-doesnt-know-about-their-communications/

Former NSC Chief of Staff, CIA analyst and House Intel Com staff member @FredFleitz: 1/ The NYT confirmed what I said last week: Schiff knew about the CIA whistleblower in advance — way in advance.  Before he even filed his complaint. This is a much bigger scandal that people realize.  At a minimum, Schiff should recuse himself from this impeachment inquiry…

    3/ So the whistleblower DID come to the @HouseIntelComm first just as I said.  We now know that the request by the whistleblower to meet with committee members was a fraud — he already did this…

    6/ And here’s the kicker: under @HouseIntelComm rules, any classified info brought to the committee from outside sources MUST BE SHARED WITH BOTH SIDES.  Schiff broke committee rules by not telling committee GOP members about this.

 

Former CIA Officer @JohnKiriakou on Fox: “[The complaint] went through layers of editing & coordinating… that leads me to believe that this whistleblower that we keep talking about is just the face of an entire group that’s at the CIA that’s pushing this thing forward…”

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1179506591424491522

 

Some pundits are opining that the NYT ‘outed’ the whistleblower as a CIA officer – possibly because Team WB provided the MSM with bad info on the Trump-Zelensky phone call.

 

@seanmdav: The anti-Trump complainant colluded with House Democrats prior to filing his complaint against Trump with the ICIG, violating federal whistleblower protection laws that require intel community employees to route allegations through the ICIG’s office.

The law does not provide any protections to employees or contractors who bypass the process required by law and go directly to Congress, nor does it provide any avenue to disclose classified information to Congress without first going through the ICIG. If the complainant or a colleague leaked classified information to Schiff or his committee, those individuals could be subject to criminal liability for illegal and unauthorized disclosure of classified information…

https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/02/breaking-anti-trump-whistleblower-colluded-with-house-democrats-before-filing-complaint/

 

@RepDevinNunes: We learn from the press today that Chm Schiff had prior knowledge and involvement in the WB complaint. He withheld this info from the American people and even from the Intel Cmte. In light of this news, it’s hard to view impeachment as anything aside from an orchestrated farce.

 

@RepRatcliffe: So Schiff claims outrage and alleges a White House “cover-up” to not notify Congress of the whistleblower complaint when his own staff knew and advised the whistleblower before the complaint was filed? Yeah, sure, this isn’t a sham.

 

@seanmdav: They’re running the EXACT same script from the Blasey Ford hoax.  Allegations are briefed exclusively to Democrats. Accuser is actively assisted by Democrats. Allegations are leaked.  And just like with Ford, evidence shows the allegations are false.

 

@julie_kelly2: Now we know, as I point out here, why Atkinson—the IC IG—twice wrote to House Intel committee and not Senate Intelligence committee (which confirmed him) about his dispute with DNI over whistleblower claims…

 

IC Inspector General Didn’t Review Ukraine Call before Forwarding Whistleblower Complaint

In a recently declassified letter from Michael Atkinson, we learn that his investigation didn’t even include a review of the phone transcript at the core of the entire complaint… this firestorm does not appear to be dying down, and elements of the release only cast further doubts on how Atkinson and his team have handled this entire episode, and whether they are finally being forthright about the rationale and timing of the changes or trying to obfuscate their way through the crisis…

https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/02/ic-inspector-general-didnt-review-ukraine-call-before-forwarding-whistleblower-complaint/#.XZTmDkA5kS0.twitter

 

Did The Inspector General’s Office Help the ‘Whistleblower’ Try to Frame Trump?

The ‘whistleblower’ was not acting alone, and members of the intelligence community inspector general’s office were likely providing an assist in the hoax attempt to bury President Trump..

https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/30/did-the-inspector-generals-office-help-the-whistleblower-try-to-frame-trump/

 

@RudyGiuliani: If you want a hint as to why we are considering a major law suit a small example is Adam Schiff. We can allege he advanced information he knew was false as part of first frame-up and, let’s not prejudge this one, but not looking so good. Keep following the real story

 

@nytimes: Senator Bernie Sanders had 2 stents inserted to treat an artery blockage and is canceling campaign events in the coming days

NBC: Biden’s trip to China with son Hunter in 2013 comes under new scrutiny – Amid unproven Trump claims, the overseas trip is generating new attention over Hunter Biden’s business dealings…

    Also involved in the fund is Devon Archer, a past adviser to former Secretary of State John Kerry, who also partnered with Hunter Biden on his work in Ukraine and a U.S. investment firm…

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/biden-s-trip-china-son-hunter-2013-comes-under-new-n1061051

 

@CharlesOrtel: Mike Pompeo on Democrat Thugs in Congress: They Violated Rules – Told State Dept. Officials “Not to Contact” Legal Counsel before Testimony – They contacted State Department employees directly. They told them NOT to contact legal counsel at the State Department. That’s been reported to us. They said the State Department wouldn’t be able to be present. There are important constitutional prerogatives that the executive branch has to be present so that we can protect the important information so our partners, countries like Italy, can have confidence that the information they provide can have with the State Department will continue to be protected…

https://thegatewaypundit.com/2019/10/mike-pompeo-on-democrat-thugs-in-congress-they-violated-rules-told-state-dept-officials-not-to-contact-legal-counsel-before-testimony-video/

 

The DoJ will not prosecute an apparent former member of Team Mueller for leaking grand jury evidence.

 

DoJ IG: Findings of Misconduct by a then Assistant United States Attorney for Improperly Disclosing Grand Jury Materials to an Unauthorized Individual

The Department of Justice (DOJ) Office of the Inspector General (OIG) initiated this investigation upon the receipt of information from the United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia (USAO-DC) regarding allegations that an Assistant United States Attorney (AUSA), who is no longer employed by DOJ, improperly disclosed District of Columbia Superior Court grand jury materials to an unauthorized individual.  The OIG investigation substantiated the allegation that the AUSA improperly disclosed Superior Court grand jury materials to an unauthorized individual, in violation of the Code of the District of Columbia and the District of Columbia Superior Court Rules of Criminal ProcedureCriminal prosecution of this matter was declined.

    The OIG has provided its report to the Executive Office for United States Attorneys (EOUSA), the Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR), and the USAO-DC for appropriate action…

https://oig.justice.gov/reports/2019/f191002a.pdf

 

Remember, Barr, who has no relationship with or allegiance to Trump, told the WSJ in May that he’s working to protect the presidency, not Trump

     “I felt the rules were being changed to hurt Trump, and I thought it was damaging for the presidency over the long haul,” Barr told The Wall Street Journal in an interview published Monday…“If you destroy the presidency and make it an errand boy for Congress, we’re going to be a much weaker and more divided nation.”…

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/444684-barr-says-hes-working-to-protect-presidency-not-trump

 

Don’t forget, GOP House Leader McCarthy forced everyone in the House to vote on Pelosi’s impeachment inquiry request.  All Dems voted ‘yes’ based on Schiff’s BS.  Good luck in 2020!

 

Betting market on Dem Prez Candidate for 2020: Warren 50, Biden 24, Yang 11, Hillary 8, Bernie 7

end

Well that is all for today

I am going to be taking some time off (8 days)

I will provide the comex data and some major stories but it will be at odd times

during the day.  I will not provide inventory movements

bye for now

 

 

 

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