OCT 2//WILD DAY AS DOW PLUMMETS ALMOST 500 POINTS//GOLD A WINNER UP $19.30 TO $1501.95//SILVER IS UP 33 CENTS TO $17.61//QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES AT BOTH THE GOLD COMEX/AND SILVER COMEX///WE STILL HAVE OVER 29 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER//JAPAN FINALLY RAISES ITS SALES TAX TO 10% AND THAT WILL NO DOUBT BRING ON A RECESSION OVER THERE//EUROPE LOSES ITS WTO CASE WITH ESPECT TO AIRBUS AND THUS THE USA WILL INITIATE 7.5 BILLION DOLLARS ON EUROPEAN GOODS//MORE REPO UPTAKE AT 42 BILLION DOLLARS AND THE CULPRIT IS NONE OTHER THAN JPMORGAN//

GOLD:$1501.95 UP $19.30 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.61 UP 33 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1500.20

 

silver:  $17.56

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 250/598

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,482.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/01/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/03/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 99
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 121
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 59
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 9
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 495
661 H JP MORGAN 250
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
690 C ABN AMRO 20 8
700 C UBS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 10 23
800 C MAREX SPEC 5 11
880 H CITIGROUP 69
905 C ADM 9
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 598 598
MONTH TO DATE: 8,095

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 598 NOTICE(S) FOR 59,800 OZ (1.8600 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8095 NOTICES FOR 809,500 OZ  (25.17 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR 0CT

 

 

63 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 315,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 769 for 3,845,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

RUMOR just in, and that is all it is from a good source: China will soon declare Martial Law in Hong Kong, IF true, watch out!

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI

 

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8232 DOWN $60 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8242 DOWN 42

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR  SIZED 1022 CONTRACTS FROM 213,288 UP TO 212,266 DESPITE THE 30 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. AND WITH A SMALL EFP WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR OCT 0,; DEC  673 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  673 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 673 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 673 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.365 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 30 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.255     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

 

YESTERDAY, ANOTHER MAJOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED BUT IT FAILED MISERABLY.  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (30 CENT GAIN). THE TWO EXCHANGES HAD A LOSS OF 291 CONTRACTS SO WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING.

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

2399 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 2399 CONTRACTS) OR 11.995 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1199 CONTRACTS OR 5.995 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  11.995 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.71% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1684.09   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1022, DESPITE THE 30 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 673 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL  SIZED: 349 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 673 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1022  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 30 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.28 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.081 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 154% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 63 NOTICE(S) FOR 315,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.255 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 5458 CONTRACTS, TO 604,885 DESPITE THE $15.25 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4784 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  4784 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 604,885,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 674 CONTRACTS: 5458 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 4784 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 674 CONTRACTS OR 64,700 OZ OR 2.096 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $15.25 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A LOSS IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 2.096  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED AND FAILED. THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE AS WELL AS UN SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA. THE BANKERS NO DOUBT COVERED SOME OF THE HUGE BANKER SHORT POSITIONS.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 15,166 CONTRACTS OR 1,516,600 oz OR 47.17 TONNES (2 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7583 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 47.17 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 47.17/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.32% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4454.80  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5458 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($15.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4784 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE IN ACCOUNT THE 4784 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD  SIZED GAIN OF 524 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4784 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5458 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 2.096 TONNES). ..AND THIS CONSIDERABLE DECREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $15.25 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  598 notice(s) filed upon for 59800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP$19.30 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.83  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: 

 

A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ  TO PAY FOR FEES/INSURANCE

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.490 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1022 CONTRACTS from 213,288 DOWN TO 212,266 AND FURTHER FROM  A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  673  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 673 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 964  CONTRACTS TO THE 673 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS OF 349 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1.745 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.225 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 30 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 673 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  //Hang Sang CLOSED   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 106.93 POINTS OR 0.49%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.46%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1483 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1483 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1536 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

This will no doubt tilt Japan into a big recession as they finally raised the sales tax to 10% form 8%

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

More games from BoJo  has he issues another ultimatum to the EU as Ireland bals at the new proposal of a hard line Irish backstop

(zerohedge)

ii)THE NETHERLANDS
HOLLANDS’s new green deal? A massive revolt by Dutch farmers
(courtesy Paul Watson/Summit News)

iii)Europe/USA /Airbus

Europe will not be happy with this ruling.  The WTO has ruled the subsidies given Airbus as illegal and now Trump can impose $7.5 billion dollars worth of tariffs on the EU

(zerohedge)

iv)And with the WTO decision, tariffs on $7.5 billion of EU imports starts onOct 18

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY/USA

Turkey risks clashing with NATO ally USA as nobody agrees with Turkey to have a safe zone. Turkey threatens to invade Syria and their chief aim will be to wipe out the Syrian Kurds

(zerohedge)

ii)UKRAINE

Protests in Kiev as Zelensky allows elections in separatist controlled Donbass. This is not to the liking of the deep rooted nationalists.
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Norway

And now our next nation ready to engage in QE will be Norway as they withdraw for the first time 395 million dollars from its sovereign wealth fund

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)China’s Golden week explains why gold fell on Monday.  Yet in the past two days it has held up pretty good despite no China

(zerohedge)

ii)Ed Steer talks with Dr Dave Janda on the huge amount of gold standing in October

(Ed Steer/Dr Dave Janda)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)New York City ISM collapses

(zerohedge)

ii)Donald will not like this: GDP estimates have now fallen to 1.8% in 3rd quarter GDP due to the dismal ISM reports.(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iii)the normally ebullient ADP report states that only 135,000 private sector jobs were created last month

the market did not like it…the all important jobs report will be released on Friday.
(courtesy Market Watch)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)We still have an acute liquidity shortage as another $42 billion in repo update was recorded,  This will last until Oct 10 and then we will see if the liquidity subsides or not.  My guess is that Deutsche bank is in big trouble and no bank is willing to loan it money which explains the poor liquidity

(zerohedge)

b)Simon Black outlines the huge debt facing the USA and it is not getting any better

(simon Black/Sovereign Man)

c)Now this is going to get interesting..a new whistleblower says that Boeing focused in profit over safety with respect to the doomed 737 Max

(zerohedge

d)If Trump wins the election next year, he will mostly likely ask Bullard to become chairman of the Fed

(zerohedge)

e)Here is the bank that is initially behind the Repo shock, JPMorgan..  But JPMorgan can also fronting for European banks especially Deutsche bank

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Fun and games with Deutsche bank’s financial “dirt” on Trump

(zerohedge)

b)Pompeo admits that he participated in a controversial call between Trump and Ukrainian President. Pompeo is angry that the Dems are bullying staff.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5458 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 604,885 DESPITE THE GAIN OF $15.25 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4784 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 4784   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4784 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 674 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4784 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 5458 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS FAILED IN THEIR ATTEMPT AT CONTAINING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT ROSE BY A STRONG  $15.25. JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS WITH THEIR ATTEMPTED RAID YESTERDAY.  GOLD HAD AN UPSIDE DAY REVERSAL IN PRICE AND THAT CAUSED SOME OF OUR BANKER FRIENDS TO SHED SOME OF THEIR BANKER SHORTS…. 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  674 CONTRACTS OR 67400 OZ OR 2.096 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 1944 contracts still standing for a loss of 266 contracts. Yesterday we had 283 notices served upon so we despite the raid, we have a gain of 17 contracts or an additional 1700 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers in their attempt to find physical metal.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 19 contracts and thus the OI is ELEVATED to 817.  The very big December contract month saw its oi FALL by 3388 contracts DOWN to 471,992.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 598 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  59,800 OZ. (1.8602 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1022 CONTRACTS FROM 213,288 DOWN TO 212,266 (AND FURTHER FROM A NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A 30 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 545 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF ONLY 519 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 585 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 66 CONTRACTS OR 330,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 4 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 444. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 686 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 163,171.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 63 notice(s) filed for 315,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 379,288  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  471,161  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 2/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
598 notice(s)
 59800 OZ
(1.8602 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1342 contracts
(134200 oz)
4.174 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8095 notices
809500 OZ
25.17 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  0

 

 

 

total gold deposits:  nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ nothing   arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

ADJUSTMENTS:

i) Out of International Delaware:

a phony entry:

96,450.000 oz of fake kilobars are adjusted out of the customer account and this arrives into the dealer account

(3,000 kilobars)

ii) a real entry: 5,900.810 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account

the problem is that no gold is going from dealer to the customer to signify a settlement.

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 495 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 598 contract(s) of which 250 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8095) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (1940 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (598 x 100 oz per contract) equals 943,700 OZ OR 29.35 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (8095 x 100 oz)  + (1940)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (598 x 100 oz )which equals 943,700 oz standing OR 29.35 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained 21 contracts or an additional 2100 oz will stand for gold in Oct.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 29.35 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 61.9555 TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 59.355 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,147,640.808 oz or  35.696 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,188,292.958 oz 254.69 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 2 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 78,070.456 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1212,331.760 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
63
CONTRACT(S)
(315,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
482 contracts
 2,410,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  769 contracts

3,845,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

i) Into Brinks:  1,212,331.760 oz

total dealer deposits: 1,212,331.760  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 0  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  72,107.514 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 5962.942 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 78,070.456  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of Brinks: 99,753.320 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of Brinks and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

and this is a proper settlement ..

 

total dealer silver:  77.826 million

total dealer + customer silver:  315.331 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 63 contract(s) FOR 315,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 769 x 5,000 oz = 3,845,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (545) and the number of notices served upon today 63 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 769 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (545)- number of notices served upon today (63)x 5000 oz equals 6,255,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE  gained 66 contracts or an additional 330,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  69,075 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 88,553 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 88,553 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 442 million  OZ 63.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.87% ((OCT 2/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.36% to NAV (OCT 2/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.87%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.00 TRADING 14.55///DISCOUNT 3.02

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.83 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

OCT 2/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 920.83 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 673 TRADING DAYS: 28.33 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 573- TRADING DAYS: A NET 138.32 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 2/2019//WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES/INSURANCE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.490 MILLION OZ//

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

OCT 2/2019:

 

 

Inventory 383.490 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.14/ and libor 6 month duration 2.06

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .08

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.01%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.04

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.03

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

China’s Golden week explains why gold fell on Monday.  Yet in the past two days it has held up pretty good despite no China

(zerohedge)

China’s Golden Week holiday explains gold’s counterintuitive weakness, Zero Hedge says

 Section: 

Is This The Real Driver Of Gold’s Recent Weakness?

From Zero Hedge, New York
Sunday, September 29, 2019

Despite uber-dovish Fed jawboning (and a re-expansion of their balance sheet), a liquidity crisis prompting repo action by New York Fed, re-escalated trade tensions, a breakdown in talks with North Korea, and, of course, the Trump impeachment process, safe-haven precious metals were pummeled lower the last few days, breaking back down below $1,500.

The question on many investors’ minds is: Why?

The answer is surprisingly simple: China’s Golden Week holiday. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-prices-plunge-right-cue-china…

end

Ed Steer talks with Dr Dave Janda on the huge amount of gold standing in October

(Ed Steer/Dr Dave Janda)

GATA board member Steer discusses huge October contract gold offtake, JPM indictments

 Section: 

11:44a ET Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA board member Ed Steer was interviewed Sunday by Davd Janda on WAAM-AM1600 in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and discussed the unusual increase in offtake in the October gold futures contract on the New York Commodities Exchange. They also discussed the recent indictments of gold and silver traders for JPMorganChase. The interview is 24 minutes long and can be heard at Janda’s internet site, Operation Freedom, here:

https://operation-freedom-shows.s3.amazonaws.com/SEP29_2019/EdSteer09291…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

A superb commentary from Nicholas Biezanek on the Comex fraud

(courtesy Nicholas Biezanek)

 

 

EVIDENCE of the COMEX PAPER FRAUD

Nicholas Biezanek

Whilst the obscenely clandestine EFP contract type (refer below) is clearly the principal mechanism that prevents the COMEX paper fraud from imploding, all transactions recording physical precious metal movements on the COMEX are promulgated in a format that does not link to related warehouse inventory movements. I therefore decided to download the daily COMEX reports and compile a consolidated profile of COMEX movements depicted purely in hard figures. Unfortunately this analysis of the July- Sept. 2019 quarter only started on 12th July. (These daily reports are not archived and are available only until the subsequent report is posted; in other words this succinct profile is one that the COMEX certainly does not facilitate.)

Registered Gold

Tonnes

Eligible Gold

Tonnes

Registered Silver

Troy ozs. 000,000

Eligible Silver

Troy ozs. 000,000

As at 11th July 2019

10.04

229.37

91.99

214.65

Inflow.

0.83

15.37

5.98

22.48

Withdrawals

NIL

(0.92)

NIL

(20.91)

Transfers (net)

21.64

(21.64)

(21.26)

21.26

Closing at 30th Sept.

32.51

222.18

76.71

237.48

There are also about 24 tonnes (as at 30th Sept. 2019) of kilo bars warehoused in Hong Kong. Since these are eligible stocks only, they are presumably not available to satisfy demand notices re futures contracts. Silver is an industrial metal, with many uses, so it is hardly surprising that some metal is withdrawn from the eligible category at the COMEX. August was a designated delivery month for gold and September was a designated delivery month for silver, and since the period in the table above covers the full transaction history of both these months, one might have expected just a microscopic movement on the withdrawal line above- but not even a flicker of a pulse. Moreover in this period of 80 days, less than one tonne of gold was withdrawn from the eligible category of inventory and hence the conclusion seems reasonable that the COMEX , for all intents and purposes, is effectively closed for any meaningful delivery of physical gold from either the registered or eligible category. Hence the importance of the EFP farce, discussed below.

Open Interest: As at 30th September 2019, the recorded open interest on the COMEX was stated at 1,958 tonnes of gold and 1.068 billion troy ounces of silver. As per contract law, any delivery notice can only be settled from the registered category of inventory at the COMEX, so any computation of the cover provided by the registered inventories in respect of this obscenely elevated open interest is allocating to the corrupt COMEX a dignity that it simply does not deserve, in light of the proof above that no deliveries are ever executed from either the COMEX registered inventory of either gold or silver.

Exchange for physical (EFP) transfers in the 21 months from 1st January 2018:

EFP contracts from 1st January 2018 to date, (in existence before 2018 but not monitored by Harvey Organ) total 11,971 tonnes of gold and 4,572 billion troy ounces of silver. Both these amounts are many multiples of global annual mine supply. The only certainty is that no physical metal has ever exchanged hands, but otherwise you must draw your own conclusions because of a conspiracy of silence surrounding these contracts that generate such truly gargantuan volumes. Harvey Organ posts daily a postulation of Andrew Maguire that all these obligations arising from EFP transfers are recorded as serial forward contract obligations of less than 14 days and perpetually rolled over to deceive the London Regulators which constitutes a massive criminal conspiracy to defraud. Indeed the amounts involved portend a potential catastrophic impairment to UK Bank liquidity/solvency so perhaps the maniacal suppression of precious metal is easy to comprehend. The legal doctrine of common purpose renders these UK Regulators as guilty parties in respect of this massive conspiracy .Whilst the Regulators on both sides of the Atlantic currently adopt the relatively short term expediency of simply ignoring any questions on this EFP issue, eventually any unsustainable prolonged concentration of magma inevitably seeks release directly proportionate to the intensity of its former suppression.

LBMA : The LBMA has recently managed to purge its directorate of an alleged JPM criminal, but otherwise nothing much changes at all. The holdings of precious metals as at 30th June 2019 were released at noon on 1st October and the aggregate holdings only ever vary by microscopic amounts each month. There are 7,608 tonnes of gold in loco London vaults of which 4,959 tonnes is attributed to the BOE and the residual 2,649 tonnes includes the gold allegedly held by GLD and many other ETF funds. There are 1.143 billion ounces of silver, which includes the amounts allegedly held by SLV. Since the loco London vault holdings are so metronomically constant, it is a safe assumption that the obligations imposed on the LBMA by EFP transfers from the COMEX are not discharged by delivery of any physical metal at all. Good news for holders of allocated precious metal at the LBMA is that, with a UK General Election looming, both main political parties are proposing marginal increases in the caring allowance afforded to minders of congenital idiots, and COMEX allocated account holders certainly pass the stringent qualifying criteria for lunacy with consummate ease.

ETFs: Nick Barisheff, CEO of the Bullion Management Group, recently stated that many ETFs only hold a fraction of the physical precious metal required to comply with their charters, and he cited many enabling loopholes in the rules of these opaque constructs.Egon von Greyerz also recently expounded upon this same theme. Since fractional reserving is now an established (criminal) practice prevalent throughout most custodial type enterprises, this claim intuitively seems to be more than extremely probable. ETF shareholdings can increase substantially in a matter of hours and the absurd assumption is made that somehow the requisite holding of the underlying precious metal is immediately and automatically rebalanced upwards. ETFs are clearly mechanisms whereby demand for physical precious metal is channeled into constructs that are primarily paper based and extraction of any physical precious metal from these custodians is a privilege accorded only to upper echelon insiders. Otherwise you lose.

Conclusion: Whilst in Nigeria for nine years I had to teach myself the art of revaluing a bond portfolio held at fair value (most other Nigerian companies were valuing their bonds on the’ hold to maturity’ basis).The Nigerian yield curve, whilst relatively flat, could fluctuate widely in the 12% to 24% range, so the (unrealized) consequences of this quarterly revaluation exercise were often very material. So I believe that I have a good grasp of the fundamentals of valuation in respect of bonds. I must confess, however, that I just cannot get my mind around this new child of MMT, being negative interest rates. A few years ago there was massive concern about the PIIGS and the viability of their bond obligations, but now some members of the PIIGS also enjoy negative yields on a portion of their shorter dated debt. One of the wisdoms of Sophocles was that the only true knowledge is knowledge of one’s own ignorance, so I am not ashamed of the fact that I cannot get my unreconstructed mind around this negative interest rate conundrum. Maybe, however, the sheer incomprehensibility of this insanity does not lie in the wiring in my neural network, but elsewhere.

Then I also query the vogue mantra that crypto currencies are the new ‘tulip bulbs’, but this time, (provided the global power grids hold up), their value will be eternal. I googled “how many crypto currencies are there?’ Here is the very first response: ‘The number of crypto currencies available over the internet as of 19th August 2018 is over 1600 and growing. A new crypto currency can be created at any time’. I believe my intractable scepticism is more than well founded in refusing to genuflect to this fiat ‘digital air’. Applying block chain technology to reign in the addiction of criminal banks to the practices of rehypothecation (theft) and fractional reserving would be a most welcome development, but that is a completely different matter.

So whilst MMT gains traction in the West, the Chinese and Russians have accumulated upwards of 30,000 tonnes of gold each, and the Persian Empire (Iran) has an affinity for gold dating back to at least 600 BC and the Ottoman Empire (Turkey) is a great believer in physical gold (and then there is India), the only certainty is that physical gold will regain (is currently regaining) its hegemony as the only true currency as the NEW SILK ROAD trading bloc emerges. Undeliverable, fraudulent naked short paper gold promises will be consigned to the dustbin of history and historians will ponder how the West could have been so manipulated and deceived in its devotion to paper.

end

Chris Marcus interviews Dave Kranzler and the top is the repo failure

(courtesy Chris Marcus/Dave Kranzler/IRD)

An Unavoidable Global Debt Implosion

“[Whatever] the repo failure involved, it is likely to prove a watershed moment, causing US bankers to more widely consider their exposure to counterparty risk and risky loans, particularly leveraged loans and their collateralised form in CLOs. a new banking crisis is not only in the making, for which the repo problem serves as an early warning, but it could escalate quite rapidly.” Alasdair Macleod, “The Ghost of Failed Bank Returns”

The delinquency and default rate on consumer and corporate debt is rising. This creates funding gaps and cash flow shortfalls at banks. In a fractional banking system, banks only have to put up $1 of reserve for every $9 of money loaned. When the value of the loans declines because of non-performance, it requires capital – cash liquidity – to make up the shortfall in debt service payments received by the banks. In simple terms, the banks are staring at a systemic “margin call.”

To be sure, the current repo funding shortfall may subside. But it will not fix the underlying causes (Deutsche Bank, CLO Trusts, subprime debt, consumer debt, derivatives), which are likely leading up to another round of what happened in 2008 – only worse this time.

Chris Marcus of  Arcadia Economics  invited me to discuss my thoughts on the meaning behind the sudden need for the Fed to inject $10’s of billions into the overnight bank lending system:

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a miniumum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

***

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1483/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1536   /shanghai bourse CLOSED

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 49.58 PTS OR .19%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 106.63 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.26/Euro FALLS TO 1.0934

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.16/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.53/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.77 and Brent: 58.87

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.55%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.86% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.16%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.43: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.36

3k Gold at $1485.60 silver at: 17.28   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 2/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.23

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.53 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.00055 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0932 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.55%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.62% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.09%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7173..

Global Stocks Tumble, Futures Slide To One Month Low As Recession Fears Rise

Global markets slumped, S&P futures dropped and European bourses tumbled as the MSCI world index dipped 0.3% to its lowest since Sept. 5, after shedding 0.83% in the previous session, after the US manufacturing ISM tumbled to more than a decade low, sparking worries a recession may now be unavoidable as the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war spreads to the U.S. economy, whose slowdown would remove the last remaining bright spot in the global economy just as Europe is falling back into recession.

S&P index futures retreated with Asian shares as miserable manufacturing data from the world’s largest economy continued to reverberate around markets. The dollar advanced. The S&P Emini dropped to 2,920, the lowest level since September 4; one day earlier the S&P 500 lost 1.23% to hit four-week lows after a disastrous ISM print.

Markets had been expecting the index to rise back above the 50.0 mark denoting growth: “Historically, equity returns are worst when the ISM manufacturing drops from levels below the 50 threshold,” Patrik Lang, head of equity research at Julius Baer. “Uncertainty around the US-China trade war is obviously the main reason for the weakness, with companies exposed to global trade increasingly putting off investment decisions.”

European shares opened lower, with London stocks lagging the most on fresh Brexit drama. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down almost 1 percent.

European stocks tumbled, the Stoxx 600 sliding more than 1%, with all sectors in the red led by miners, construction and chemical producers, falling 1.4% or more. The gauge slid for a second day after reaching a one-year high on Monday. The Basic Resources Index (SXPP) dropped for a third day, losing as much as 1.8%, as sentiment continues to sour following the string of poor data released on Tuesday: diversified miners all fell with BHP Group -1.7%, Anglo American -1.7%, Rio Tinto -2%, and Glencore -1.4%. The FTSE 100 was among the worst performers after PM Johnson issued a hard Brexit ultimatum to the EU and  prepared to announce his final Brexit offer. Bunds drifted lower, peripheral spreads trade around the tightest levels of the week as curves continue to bear steepen.

Adding to investor anxieties, European companies are set for their worst quarterly earnings in three years as revenue drops for the first time since early 2018, according to the latest Refinitiv data.

“Our base case is that trade tensions will remain elevated, and we expect global growth to slow in 2020 to its slowest pace since the global financial crisis,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth. “We don’t rule out a worsening of the trade situation over the next six to 12 months.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also dropped, with the MSCI ex-Japan Asia-Pac index dropping 0.8%, led by material and technology firms, as investors pared exposure to risk assets following dismal U.S. factory data and violent protests in Hong Kong. All major markets in the region were down, with Singapore and Indonesia leading declines, Australian shares falling 1.5% and South Korean shares shedding 1.95%. China markets are closed for a one-week holiday. Japan’s Nikkei slid 0.5% and the Topix dropped 0.4%, dragged by electronics makers including Keyence and Sony. Automakers also fell after weak U.S. auto sales in September.

While markets in China and India were closed for holidays, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.2%, as Tencent Holdings and HSBC Holdings weighed. The index fell as much as 1.2% in early trade. On Tuesday, Hong Kong police shot a teenage protester, the first to be hit by live ammunition in almost four months of unrest in the Chinese-ruled city.  Protesters and police battled across the city in some of the most serious clashes since widespread unrest began in June. 

Adding to tensions in Asia, North Korea carried out at least one more projectile launch on Wednesday, a day after it announced it will hold working-level talks with the United States at the weekend.  Japanese Cabinet Minister Suga said the launch did not directly impact Japan but one North Korean ballistic missile landed inside the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and one outside. Japanese PM Abe condemned the North Korea launches and added that it violates UN resolutions. Further, Japanese PM Abe will hold a meeting of the National Security Council to decide how to respond to the projectile firings. In terms of details, South Korean Defence Ministry said the missiles launched by North Korea have a range of circa 1300km and was likely launched at a higher apogee to decrease range and could have been fired from a submarine. Japan has not yet determined whether North Korea’s missiles were Submarine-launched ballistic missile and notes it may have been one missile which split into two. The White House said it is aware of the launch and is monitoring the situation.

In rates, yesterday’s early hours Rates selloff is all but a distant memory now, as a disastrous US ISM print has again kicked-off another “global growth scare” that is rallying Bonds / havens, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes. Eurozone bond yields inched up after another speech from outgoing ECB chief Mario Draghi calling for fiscal stimulus to boost the region’s sluggish economy.

The recent poor data lifted the Fed funds rate futures price sharply, with the November contract now pricing in about an 80% chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Oct. 30, compared to just over 50% before the data. Even so, the dollar rebounded to fresh two years highs after sliding in Tuesday’s session. The index that measures the greenback against a basket of peers was up 0.16%.

Elsewhere in FX, the yen rose to 107.7 from Tuesday’s low of 108.47. The euro fell 0.15% to $1.0915 EUR while the Australian dollar traded at $0.6693, having hit a 10-1/2-year low of $0.6672 the previous day after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates and expressed concern about job growth.

In commodities, gold rose to $1,479.13 per ounce from a two-month low of $1,459.50 hit on Tuesday on the back of a robust U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. data pushed oil prices to near one-month lows, although a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories helped them to rebound. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $59.01 a barrel, after hitting a four-week low of $58.41 on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.69% to $53.99 per barrel after hitting a one-month low of $53.05.

Expected data include mortgage applications and ADP employment change. Acuity Brands, Lamb Weston, Lennar, and Paychex are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,926.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1% to 383.94
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 155.99
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 497.74
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 21,778.61
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,596.29
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 26,042.69
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,905.19
  • Sensex down 0.9% to 38,305.41
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 6,639.94
  • Kospi down 2% to 2,031.91
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to -0.539%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0914
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.4 bps to 0.518%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.167%
  • Brent futures down 0.3% to $58.73/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,480.55
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 99.32

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Boris Johnson is poised to issue an ultimatum to the European Union on Wednesday: negotiate Brexit on his terms within the next nine days, or face a no-deal divorce. A key EU player has already rejected the prime minister’s plan
  • The ECB began its official transition to a new benchmark short-term interest rate Wednesday, as global regulators move away from tainted Libor gauges. The new rate, known as ESTR, which reflects overnight borrowing costs of banks in the monetary bloc, fixed at -0.549% for Oct. 1, the central bank said on its website
  • Germany’s five leading research institutes slashed their forecasts for economic growth, as manufacturers in Europe’s biggest economy struggle with waning global demand and lingering trade disputes. GDP will expand by 1.1% in 2020, they predicted, down from 1.8% forecast in April
  • Japan’s struggling government bond market shows just how vulnerable it can be to the whim of the central bank. JGBs generated the smallest return among all 46 sovereign debt markets tracked by Bloomberg in the third quarter, gaining less than 0.6% amid a global bond rally. They lost 1.1% in September
  • North Korea fired what appeared to be a ballistic missile designed for submarines, testing President Donald Trump’s tolerance for weapons tests just hours after agreeing to restart stalled nuclear talks with the U.S.
  • European Union governments have discussed giving the U.K. a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border, two people familiar with the matter said. A time limit would only be on offer if the U.K. accepted a backstop which would keep Northern Ireland in a customs union with the bloc
  • Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s proposal to overhaul Brazil’s pension system and rein in public debt passed a first of two votes on the senate floor late on Tuesday.
  • North Korea fired what appeared to be a submarine-based ballistic missile off its eastern coast Wednesday in an escalation that came just hours after saying it would resume stalled U.S. nuclear talks
  • The European Central Bank begins its official transition to a new benchmark short-term interest rate Wednesday, as global regulators move away from tainted Libor gauges
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he never met or talked by phone with Donald Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, whose contacts in Ukraine are part of an impeachment inquiry in Washington

Asian equity markets took the cue from the negative lead on Wall Street where the major indices declined on the first day of Q4 after US ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted to its worst level since June 2009. Losses in ASX 200 (-1.5%) accelerated after NAB shares tumble 3% amid an additional AUD 1.2bln charge relating to increased provisions for customer-related remediation, whereas upside in the Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was limited by the unfavourable currency flow, whilst Toyota shares slumped due to poor North American vehicle sales and Sony remained near the bottom of the index after cutting streaming prices ahead of Google’s Stadia launch. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.2%) climbed off lows after returning from a long weekend, albeit oil giants remained pressured after Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund received the green light to sell USD 6bln worth of oil and gas stocks, meanwhile upside in the index was capped by the ongoing situation in Hong Kong as protestors vowed to step up action after a police officer shot a teenager yesterday. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI (-2.0%) was pressured after North Korea fired short-ranged projectiles towards the East Sea. As a reminder, Mainland China and Indian markets were closed today due to public holidays.

Top Asian News

  • U.K. Protests Slows Down Mainland Visitor National Day Arrivals
  • Israel Plans to Boost Supply in Landmark Gas Deal With Egypt
  • Bears Retreat From Turkey Stocks as Real Returns Draw Buyers
  • SoftBank Debtholders Hope For More Caution After WeWork Woes

Major European Bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3%) are firmly lower, amid a lack of fresh bearish fundamentals, as the region more takes its cue from a negative AsiaPac lead; sentiment was downbeat overnight following Wall Street underperformance after bad US ISM Manufacturing data, the latest missile test launch out of North Korea and ongoing tensions in Hong Kong. Looking ahead, at 15.00 BST the WTO is expected to announce its decision on the US’ right to retaliate to against the EU over their Airbus (-0.8%) subsidies, a potential source of impetus. Prior reports have suggested the ruling will allow the US to impose tariffs on roughly USD 8bln of EU imports on a wide range of products. Sectors are also firmly in the red; Materials (-2.1%), Industrials (-1.7%) and Energy (-2.0%) (despite slightly higher crude prices) are leading the sectors lower while Consumer Staples (-0.9%), Telecoms (-0.8%) and Utilities (-1.0%) hold up comparatively better. In terms of individual movers; Flutter Entertainment (+18.4%) shot higher on the news of the co.’s merger with Stars Group, pulling other betting names higher such as William Hill (+4.3%) higher in tandem. Nestle (-0.2%) shares are being supported by the Co.’s sale of its Skin Health unit. Tesco (+0.6%) managed to reverse early losses and now trades higher, after the co. released decent earnings premarket, but its CEO resigned. Pernod Ricard (+0.7%) is higher after being upgraded at Jefferies. Luxury names including LVMH (-2.0%) and Richemont (-2.1%) underperformed the market, with bad retail data out of Hong Kong (the largest decline on record) weighing.

Top European News

  • ECB Begins Transition of Benchmark Short-Term Interest Rate
  • German Fiscal Stimulus Already Creeping In, Whatever Merkel Says
  • Lenders Selling Loan Exposures to Thomas Cook at 90% Discount
  • Metro Bank Founder Hill to Leave Board Early as Stock Slides

In FX, the Dollar has clawed back some losses following yesterday’s abrupt U-turn from new 2019 highs in the DXY with the index bouncing firmly ahead of 99.000 towards 99.420, as attention switches to NFP via ADP and hopefully better news from the services side of the US economy after the more pronounced ISM manufacturing activity slowdown. However, the Greenback is also benefiting from renewed weakness in rival currencies and general risk aversion awaiting the WTO ruling on the extent that the US can counter EU subsidies for Airbus and repercussions in Brussels after UK PM Johnson delivers his latest/last Brexit proposal.

  • CHF/GBP – The clear G10 underperformers, with the Franc deflated on weak Swiss CPI grounds, further SNB guidance from Maechler expounding the virtues of NIRP allied to direct FX intervention and the KOF cutting growth and inflation estimates, while the Pound has been hit by a dire UK construction PMI and the ongoing political/Irish border wrangling. Consequently, Usd/Chf is back up near parity and Cable has recoiled from 1.2300+ towards Tuesday’s low only a few pips away from the big figure below, with the focus turning to Johnson’s appearance at the Tory Party conference from noon.
  • NZD/AUD – The Aussie and Kiwi are also unwinding/reversing post-US ISM manufacturing gains, as Aud/Usd returns to ytd lows circa 0.6670 and Nzd/Usd retests bids protecting 0.6200 alongside YUAN depreciation in holiday-thinned trade.
  • EUR/CAD – Holding up a bit better than most major counterparts, but some way off best levels vs the Buck as the single currency failed to sustain momentum through 1.0950 and Loonie could not breach 1.3200 amidst confirmation of more German GDP forecast downgrades and a downturn in crude prices.
  • JPY – Bucking the broad, if not overall trend, safe-haven demand/positioning has kept the Yen elevated between 107.90-55 against the Dollar, and from a chart perspective the 100 DMA in Usd/Jpy (now around 107.76) remains pivotal.
  • EM – Rand in the spotlight ahead of ANC judgment on the latest SA growth plan and following the SARB’s semi-annual MPR, with some technical support coming from a pull-back from 1 month peaks in Usd/Zar around 15.4000 to almost 15.3000 at one stage.
  • Goldman Sachs economists say the RBA’s internal economic model suggests the Central Bank will need to release a USD 200bln QE programme to achieve its unemployment and inflation targets. (AFR)

In commodities, the crude complex is mixed, giving away the majority of overnight gains, where the complex bounced from post US ISM Manufacturing data lows helped by a bullish headline API print, as risk sentiment took a turn for the worse at the European open. WTI and Brent currently sit just below the USD 54.00/bbl and USD 59.00/bbl levels respectively. To the downside technicians will be eyeing the USD 53.00/bbl handle in WTI; yesterday’s low and the late August/early September base. After yesterday’s choppy session, which saw Gold price swings of north of USD 40/oz, the precious metal is lacklustre and seemingly awaiting further macro drivers in the form of today’s ADP employment report, ISM Non-manufacturing tomorrow and NFP on Friday. In fitting with fragile risk sentiment, Copper remains under pressure as global growth concerns linger, albeit the red metal is off yesterday’s post ISM Manufacturing data lows.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -10.1%
  • 8am: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at a Conference on the Rural Economy
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 140,000, prior 195,000
  • 9am: Fed’s Harker Speaks at Community Banking Conference
  • 10:50am: New York Fed’s Williams Speaks in San Diego

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The warning signs that we got from the Chicago PMI data on Monday turned out to be correct with yesterday’s shocking ISM manufacturing print being the talk of the town in markets. Indeed the headline was the decade-low September print of 47.8, a 1.3pt decline from August and also well below expectations for a 50.0 reading. In fact it was below even the lowest economist’s forecast on Bloomberg. The details were arguably even more concerning though. New orders (47.3 vs. 47.2 previously), employment (46.3 vs. 47.4) and production (47.3 vs. 49.5) all either remained soft or deteriorated further.Only 3 of the 18 industries in the survey reported growth, the lowest figure since 2009. In addition, the leading indicator new exports component slumped to 41.0. The last time it was lower was during the depths of the GFC in March 2009, and if we look at the full 380 months’ of history, this index has only been lower than it is right now on 6 occasions.

We updated our simple equity versus PMI model last night following the latest slug of data and unsurprisingly the equity markets in Europe and the US now appear overvalued on this metric. This is most severe in Germany (20%), Italy (16%) and the Eurozone (14%) as a whole. The S&P 500 is 6% overvalued relative to the latest ISM however interestingly it’s the reverse in Asia where the Nikkei and Shanghai Comp are actually 8% and 13% cheap respectively. For Europe it’s worth noting that current equity market pricing imply PMIs around 50 while the S&P 500 implies an ISM of 50.4. So pricing bad news but not this bad. Although this analysis is based on the historical relationship between PMIs/ISMs and equities it’s fair to say that rarely has there been such a long standing and wide gap between manufacturing and services. So there is still hope if services buck the historical trend and hold up but there have been cracks of late. So all eyes on tomorrow’s services readings.

What is hard to argue with is that the global manufacturing sector is now very much in a recession. This now makes an already important Fed meeting later this month even more of a crucial risk event. With that in mind it’s worth noting that there are only 20bps of cuts priced in for this month’s meeting, albeit up from 14.5bps on Monday. Markets do seem to be having a somewhat hard time pricing in a more dovish Fed, though the pricing could also reflect expectations for another IOER adjustment. Our US economists do expect a cut this month.

By the end of the session yesterday, the S&P 500 was down -1.23%, off -1.75% from its pre-ISM highs. The NASDAQ (-1.13%) and DOW (-1.28%) were down similar amounts. In Europe the STOXX 600 (-1.31%) turned in its worst performance in six weeks. The domestic PMI revisions hardly made for any more comfortable reading on the continent (more on those below).

Meanwhile the trend in rates prior to the ISM was for yields to move higher following the big sell-off in JGBs just over 24 hours ago. That quickly reversed once the data was out with 2y and 10y Treasuries closing down -7.8bps and -2.9bps respectively, and -13.4bps and -12.0bps off the intraday highs. President Trump tweeted shortly after the data came out and called the Fed “pathetic” and that “they don’t have a clue” however that didn’t move the dial in markets. The curve steepened +5.5bps to 8.9bps last night and sits at 10.4bps this morning while in Europe Bunds retraced a +6.1bps selloff to end the session just +0.7bps higher. Elsewhere, the end result in credit was for US HY spreads to widen +8bps while the risk off helped Gold (+0.55%) and safe haven currencies like the Yen (+0.36%) and Swiss Franc (+0.55%).

Separate from the macro news, stock markets were also jolted yesterday by the announcement by Charles Schwab Corp (-9.74%) that they will eliminate online trading commissions for stocks, ETFs, and options. The prominent brokerage is locked in a price war with its main competitors as more and more assets shift toward lower-fee and passive investment strategies. E*Trade Financial (-16.43%) and TD Ameritrade (-25.83%) both saw steep selloffs in response.

This morning in Asia equity markets have followed the US lower, with the Nikkei (-0.65%) and the Hang Seng (-0.54%) both losing ground. South Korea’s KOSPI (-1.35%) was one of the worst performers, which came as the country’s military said that it detected a North Korean missile launch that flew 450km. It comes just hours after North Korean state media said that they would start further denuclearization talks with the US this weekend. Meanwhile 10yr JGBs are down -1.9bps at time of writing, 10yr USTs back up +2.5bps, with S&P futures up +0.20%.

Onto Brexit where there’s been a lot of developments over the last 12 hours with more likely today. A Bloomberg story as London went home caused a bit of a stir yesterday, which suggested that the EU is considering accepting a time limit on the Irish backstop, though it did later emphasise that the deliberations have only been between EU capitals, not with the UK. An EU spokesperson later said that the EU are not considering this, while an Irish government spokesman said it hadn’t been discussed.

Mr. Johnson will give a key speech today at the Conservative Party conference where more Brexit news will follow. It’s expected firm Brexit proposals will be sent to the EU soon after the conference ends – possibly within 24 hours. So a potentially big couple of days ahead. The overnight reporting suggested that he will offer a plan which will include “two borders for four years;” with a time-limited backstop for Northern Ireland that is separate from the UK. If so and as mentioned above, it is unlikely that the EU will agree to such a plan, which would require customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Irish finance minister has already been quoted as saying that if this is the plan then “that in itself is bad faith”. So today could be the beginning of the end for any hopes of a deal ahead of the EU council meeting in two weeks.

Back to the data yesterday, where the PMIs in Europe where little changed at the final revision. Indeed the Eurozone reading was nudged up 0.1pts to 45.7 with Germany revised up 0.3pts to 41.7 but France revised down 0.2pts to 50.1. The countries outside of Germany and France were within the margin of error of what was implied by the flash PMIs while the US reading was revised up 0.1pts to 51.1 and contrasting with the more widely followed ISM equivalent. Overall we counted a total of 35 manufacturing PMIs/ISMs around the globe yesterday and 18 were below 50 with the unweighted average being 48.9. Award for the highest reading went to Greece! And the lowest South Africa.

Away from the data and on to the policy front, where there was a slew of speeches from Fed and ECB officials yesterday, but almost no new substantive information. In the US, Vice Chair Clarida and Governor Bowman both spoke but avoided talking about the economy or rates. Chicago President Evans reiterated his recent (surprising) hawkish shift by repeating that he expects policy to be on hold “for some time.”

As for the ECB, outgoing President Draghi spoke again about the need for fiscal support and cited an argument we used in our long term study that fiscal is much more powerful when monetary policy is close to the effective lower bound (see pages 47-51 of the note here ). Meanwhile Bundesbank President Weidmann pushed back against the Draghi’s recent call for unanimity. Last week, Draghi had said in testimony that “the form in which dissent is made known is very important (…) in order not to undermine the effectiveness of our decisions.” Weidmann yesterday criticised that argument, albeit without singling Draghi out by name, saying that “intensive discussions” regarding policy, including QE, are “absolutely necessary.” Incoming President Lagarde will have her hands full when she inherits the Presidency next month.

To the day ahead now which is a very quiet one for data releases with the only print due this morning being the September construction PMI in the UK, while in the US the September ADP employment change is due. The consensus for the latter is for a 140k print, following a 195k reading in August. Away from the data we’ve got scheduled comments from the Fed’s Barkin, Harker and Williams this afternoon.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  //Hang Sang CLOSED   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 106.93 POINTS OR 0.49%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.46%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1483 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1483 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1536 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

This will no doubt tilt Japan into a big recession as they finally raised the sales tax to 10% form 8%

(zerohedge)

Japan Hikes National Sales Tax Despite Recession Fears 

Japan has increased its national sales tax to 10% from 8% on Tuesday, a significant policy change that could tilt the world’s third-largest economy into recession by depressing consumer sentiment, reported Market Watch.

The last two times policymakers increased the sales tax, 2-point rise to 5% in 1997 and another to 8% in 2014, an economic contraction shortly followed.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe twice delayed the tax hike in recent years.

 

Abe has indicated the tax is now unavoidable given the demographic challenges in the aging country. He said the tax would help pay down the enormous national debt, and position the country towards more financial responsibility in balancing the budget by 2025. But taxing the consumer as the economy is deteriorating could be a recipe for economic disaster in 2020.

Japan’s GDP expanded at an annual pace of 1.8% over the summer. The economy is quickly slowing into fall, thanks to the trade war between the US and China. Global trade volumes are plummeting through 2H19, has taken a toll on Japan’s exports. The tax will likely sideline the consumer in 2020, force them into a savings pattern that could tilt the economy into a recession next year, similar to the tax increase in 2014.

“The economy is already in a bad state,” said Toshihiro Nagahama, executive chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“To put it in terms of the human body,” Nagahama added, “exercising when you’re not in good health is probably unwise.”

The tax goes into effect Tuesday, includes clothes, electronics, transportation, and medical services, but policymakers are allowing tax breaks for real estate and automobile purchases. Low-income households will see insignificant tax hikes, along with no tax hikes for groceries.

Policymakers set aside $18.49 billion in tax breaks for consumers. Another $2.77 billion will be for real estate and automobile purchases, but it’s likely that any tax breaks will have little effect in boosting animal spirits.

“The reduced tax rate and reward points system may limit the pain to shoppers,” said Koya Miyamae, a senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “Still, consumer sentiment tends to deteriorate before and after a tax hike, which will, in turn, dampen economic activity.”

Abe’s timing of the consumer tax hike poses a deflationary risk at a time when the global economy is stumbling.

“Considering the current economic conditions, the timing is bad,” said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

Worsening economic conditions in Japan underlines the darkening outlook for the Japanese economy even before the tax hike was implemented. Though service-sector activity remains steady, the tax hike will likely slow domestic consumption in the quarters ahead, eventually tipping the economy into recession.

During the last two consumer hikes (1997, 2014), the country’s leading economic index topped out and slid. This time around, the tax was pushed out when the index has been declining for at least 1.5-years, a policy error by the government that could prolong the next downturn.

end

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

More games from BoJo  has he issues another ultimatum to the EU as Ireland bals at the new proposal of a hard line Irish backstop

(zerohedge)

Johnson Issues “Ultimatum” To EU As Ireland Balks At New Brexit ‘Backstop’ Plan

Hopes that the EU was preparing to offer a major concession to Boris Johnson and his negotiating team have already been dashed, and traders who have been mercilessly shorting the pound can rest assured:Yesterday’s rally was just another strong entry point for GBP bears.

That’s because, according to BloombergJohnson has returned to the strategy of issuing unconvincing ultimatums to the EU. The PM said that the EU27 can either negotiate a Brexit deal on Johnson’s terms, or accept no-deal.

Johnson will take a break on Wednesday from attempting to negotiate a Brexit deal, and head to Manchester, where he will address the Conservative Party’s annual conference (which, thanks to the recent spate of defections and expulsions, will likely seem conspicuously smaller this year).

 

As details of Johnson’s proposals emerged on Tuesday, rumors that Johnson had convinced the Irish to embrace the plan were swiftly dismissed by Dublin. First, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said it didn’t look like the basis for a deal, and described a report of the plan in the Telegraph newspaper as “concerning.”

Though the UK’s parliament has voted in favor of legislation to prevent a no-deal exit, Johnson has promised not to ask for another Brexit delay under any circumstances, sparking rumors that the PM might risk prison by forcing Brexit through later this month.

But it’s more likely that Johnson will find himself battling the remainers in court. And he still risks being ousted in an election.

“The prime minister will in no circumstances negotiate a delay,” his office said.

As a reminder, here’s a summary of Johnson’s plan, which has been dubbed “Two borders, for four years,” according to the Telegraph.

In the event that no trade deal is reached between the UK and EU, Johnson’s plan would place Northern Ireland in a temporary regime with the EU with an explicit time limit.Customs checks would be mandated between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which is something Ireland and the EU have been said to oppose.

Johnson has insisted that this is his “final” proposal, and if it’s rejected, he will walk away and start preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

END
BoJo releases his next proposal and then delivers his ultimatum to Europe
(zerohedge)

Johnson Releases New Brexit Proposal, Delivers ‘Ultimatum’ To Europe

Though most of the details had already leaked out prior to the official release, UK Prime Minister has finally shared his Brexit plan with the public via a letter addressed to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

Johnson’s 6-page proposal rips up the hated Irish Backstop, proposing instead that Northern Ireland remain within the EU single market for certain goods, including agricultural products. Everything else will travel through a system of light touch customs checks on the island of Ireland. The whole system would be subject to a vote of consent by Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland every four years.

Of course, Johnson’s plan to “ensure compliance” on a “decentralized basis” sounds similar to a proposal from his predecessor, Theresa May, which was ridiculed as a ‘unicorn’ solution (meaning many felt it would be technologically impossible to implement). But Johnson appears to have domestic backing for his proposal from the DUP and some of the hardline Tories who opposed May’s withdrawal agreement. But the EU so far has appeared cool to Johnson’s proposal.

DUP leader Arlene Foster gave the deal a green light during a speech: “The prime minister has been very clear that if the EU rejects what is a sensible and balanced deal then we will be entering the realm of no-deal.”

Whatever they decide, they’ll need to do it quickly. Johnson has given the EU until the weekend to open negotiations using his agreement as the baseline, or accept responsibility for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. Whether his ‘ultimatum’ will succeed remains to be seen.

According to the Telegraph, David Frost, the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, is expected to deliver the document to officials in Brussels Wednesday afternoon in Europe.

Read the full letter below:

PM Letter to Juncker by Zerohedge on Scribd

end

THE NETHERLANDS
HOLLANDS’s new green deal? A massive revolt by Dutch farmers
(courtesy Paul Watson/Summit News)

Dutch Farmers In Mass Revolt Against Green Fascism

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Thousands of Dutch farmers descended on the Netherlands capital to protest against onerous environmental restrictions that threaten their livelihoods.

The demonstrations were sparked after the coalition government proposed that “Dutch livestock farming should be slashed to meet commitments on reducing nitrogen emissions,” reports Dutch News NL.

Farmers traveled to the Hague in their tractors, causing tailbacks in excess of 620 miles and huge traffic jams around and in the city.

Paploo@Paploo968

Farmers are protesting in the Netherlands and it is now the biggest traffic jam we’ve ever seen, thousands of tractors are driving on the highways right now 😂 is even worldwide trending on twitter right now🚜🚜🚜

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Some protesters also used their tractors to demolish fences that been put up by the government.

Janna//Mingi’s biceps tho😭❤@cyaswhitebraid

Over 2000 dutch farmers are protesting.
The government put up fenced to keep them out.

Meanwhile: farmers drive over those fences with their tractors and cause around 1100km traffic jams around the big cities

We love farmers. No farmers =no food

Embedded video

The protests appear to have widespread support from the Dutch population.

Oh boy what a shot@ohboywhatashot

The Netherlands: Huge farmer protest

Thousands of farmers are heading to Dutch government to protest against climate change measures.

89% of Dutch people support the farmers.

Embedded video

Oh boy what a shot@ohboywhatashot

The Netherlands: Huge farmer protest

Thousands of farmers are heading to Dutch government to protest against climate change measures.

89% of Dutch people support the farmers.

Embedded video

Populist leader Geert Wilders made an appearance at one of the protests.

Geert Wilders

@geertwilderspvv

Onze helden, onze boeren!

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

The scenes were reminiscent of the early days of the Yellow Vest movement in France, which was also partly a rural backlash to environmental taxes.

Despite a global propaganda offensive by the establishment centered around amplifying alarmist climate rhetoric from the likes of Greta Thunberg, ordinary working people appear to be rejecting the conditioning in their droves.

*  *  *

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end

Europe/USA /Airbus

Europe will not be happy with this ruling.  The WTO has ruled the subsidies given Airbus as illegal and now Trump can impose $7.5 billion dollars worth of tariffs on the EU

(zerohedge)

WTO Sides With US, Says US Can Retaliate For Billions In Illegal Airbus Subsidies

Just as the US-China trade talks are set to resume at the highest level, the WTO has made a second front in the global trade war far more likely, when moments ago the World Trade Organization gave President Trump a green light to impose tariffs on as much as $7.5 billion worth of European exports annually in retaliation for illegal government aid to Airbus SE.

  • WTO ON WEDNESDAY ISSUED RULING ON 15-YEAR-LONG U.S. TRADE CASE VS. AIRBUS
  • WTO SAYS U.S. CAN RETALIATE AGAINST $7.5B IN EU GOODS A YEAR
  • U.S. EXPECTED TO IMPOSE TARIFFS ON EU BEFORE NEGOTIATING SETTLEMENT
  • U.S. HAS RIGHT TO RETALIATE FOR ILLEGAL EU SUBSIDIES TO AIRBUS -WTO

The decision represents one of the last hurdles before the U.S. can announce which products from the European Union it will target with tariffs selected from an initial list that includes:

  • Airbus planes and parts
  • Wine and spirits produced by LVMH, Remy Cointreau SA, Pernod Ricard SA and Diageo PLC
  • Leather goods manufactured by Christian Dior SE and Hermes International

The new tariffs can take effect after the WTO adopts the report, which is expected to happen at a meeting in Geneva this month. According to Bloomberg, the award is the largest in WTO history, and is nearly twice as large as the previous record of $4.04 billion set in 2002.

More importantly, the long-awaited ruling marks a milestone in the WTO’s longest-running dispute that will further test transatlantic relations which have deteriorated under Trump’s “America First” approach to international ties, with tariffs now virtually assured. It’s also an example of Trump getting a favorable ruling from an organization he has threatened to pull out of.

The development is terrible news for Europe, which is effectively already in a recession with European manufacturing contracting sharply as a result of the ongoing U.S. trade war with China; any wider flareup of tit-for-tat tariffs with Europe will further threaten the global economy and accelerate Europe’s contraction.

Not coincidentally, just one day earlier, on Tuesday, the WTO cut its own trade growth forecast for this year to the weakest level in a decade, warning against a “destructive cycle of recrimination”, a cycle which it itself ironic stoked just one day later.

As Bloomberg adds, the Trump administration is considering a “particularly damaging” trade weapon known as “carousel” retaliation, which would enable the U.S. to regularly shift around the targeted goods, people familiar with the deliberations said last month. That would increase trade uncertainty and pain for European businesses.

Meanwhile, the EU warned it would retaliate immediately against against any Airbus-linked tariffs when the WTO rules early next year on the bloc’s dispute over U.S. subsidies to Boeing Co., according to European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom.

“The mutual imposition of countermeasures, however, would only inflict damage on businesses and citizens on both sides of the Atlantic, and harm global trade and the broader aviation industry at a sensitive time,” Malmstrom said, adding that the bloc is ready to work with the U.S. on a “fair and balanced solution for our respective aircraft industries.”

Ironically, as Boeing suffers over the indefinite grounding of its 737 MAX planes, the latest twist could further impact the US aerospace industry: Airbus warned in a statement that tariffs on its aircraft and components would come as a blow to the U.S. aerospace industry, with some 40% of its procurement coming from American suppliers.

Airbus also urged the Trump administration to take account of the forthcoming WTO decision on Boeing, saying those reciprocal tariffs could exceed the value of the U.S. sanctions.

Instead, CEO Guillaume Faury laid out his preferred solution to an all out tariff war: a negotiated settlement to the dispute. Good luck with that.

END

And with the WTO decision, tariffs on $7.5 billion of EU imports starts onOct 18

(zerohedge)

US To Impose Tariffs On $7.5 Billion In EU Imports Starting Oct 18

In the aftermath of today’s surprising WTO decision, in which the global trade mediator sided with the US in finding some $7.5BN in European Airbus subsidies illegal, moments ago the US Trade Rep confirmed that the US will waste no time in retaliating to what – for years – were illegal trade practices.

According to the USTR office, the US will impose a total of $7.5 billion in retaliatory tariffs on EU imports starting October 18, with 10% tariffs on large commercial aircraft, and 25% on agricultural and other industrial goods.

  • U.S. WILL IMPOSE TARIFFS ON $7.5 BILLION OF EUROPEAN UNION IMPORTS BEGINNING OCT. 18, USTR SAYS
  • U.S. WILL IMPOSE 10% TARIFFS ON LARGE COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT AND 25% TARIFFS ON OTHER AGRICULTURAL AND INDUSTRIAL GOOD

The USTR also noted that its would publish the full list of items subject to tariffs over the next day.

Germany’s leading economic research group has just lowered Europe’s growth rate to only 0.5%

(DIW/Ifo Institute/Market Watch)

German institutes downgrade economic growth forecasts

Oct 2, 2019 4:00 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Germany’s leading economics research institutes jointly lowered their economic forecasts, now seeing 0.5% growth in Europe’s leading economy instead of a previous forecast for 0.8% growth. They also cut their view for growth next year to 1.1% from 1.8%. The DIW, Ifo Institute, IfW, IWH and RWI cited falling worldwide demand for capital goods as well as political uncertainty and structural changes in the automotive industry for the downgrade.

-END-

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/USA

Turkey risks clashing with NATO ally USA as nobody agrees with Turkey to have a safe zone. Turkey threatens to invade Syria and their chief aim will be to wipe out the Syrian Kurds

(zerohedge)

Lira Slides As Erdogan Vows Syria Invasion & ‘Safe Zone’ To Come “Suddenly”

 

After repeat threats over the past weeks, Turkey looks to finally make good on its threat to unilaterally invade Syria after its end of September deadline for the United States to assist in jointly establishing a ‘safe zone’ has passed.

“We may suddenly arrive one night,” Erdogan told reporters after a speech to parliament in Ankara on Tuesday, referring to a possible cross-border offensive in northeast Syria. “We have tried every means, with great patience, to solve this problem together with our allies… Turkey doesn’t have a single day left to lose on this issue,” Erdogan said.

The Turkish lira weakened on the news for the second day ahead of the possible cross border offensive, which would inevitably lead to direct clashes with US proxy forces in Syria’s northeast, especially the Kurdish YPG arm of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

 

Illustrative image via Reuters: Turkish tanks previously at the Syrian border. 

Last week at the UN General Assembly President Erdogan presented his plan to set up a massive 300 mile long ‘safe zone’ along the border, which would be almost 20 miles deep into Syrian territory, where with international support Turkey would resettle up to 2 million refugees.

Turkey’s allies and foes alike, however, have immediately recognized the likely ethnic cleansing and dramatic demographic shift that would unfold under the Turkish plan. As Reuters has noted:

But Turkey’s new emphasis on the refugee transfer, which would move large numbers of Sunni Arab Syrians into a traditionally Kurdish heartland, could face resistance from allies opposed to changing the region’s demographic balance.

The Turkish and allied administered territory would be off limits to US-backed YPG/SDF, which Ankara sees as a terror arm of the PKK, something which has remained a key deal-breaker for Washington.

 

Erdogan’s speech to the opening of the third legislative session of the Turkish parliament on Tuesday evening. Image source: AFP.

“Someone is trying to have us kneel down through terrorism and the burden of refugees,” Erdogan added during his Tuesday evening remarks. He said Turkey will never accept such a “fait accompli and blackmail” against it; however, Erdogan the one recently issuing public threats of blackmail.

Early last month he warned that if his plan weren’t implemented he would flood Europe with Syrian refugees: We will be forced to open the gates. We cannot be forced to handle the burden alone,” he said at the time, and has since repeated.

END
UKRAINE
Protests in Kiev as Zelensky allows elections in separatist controlled Donbass. This is not to the liking of the deep rooted nationalists.
(zerohedge)

Protests Rage As Ukraine’s Zelensky Allows Election In Separatist-Controlled East

Comedian turned president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky’s unlikely rise to power was based in large part on convincing voters that he would dramatically ease tensions with Russia and seek a peaceful resolution to the war in Donbass, raging since 2014.

But now in a potentially explosive Maiden 2.0 scenario, hardcore Ukrainian nationalists have taken to the Kiev square which has come to symbolize resistance to Russia in order to protest the popular president’s dovish and rapprochement-signalling policies. Hours after Zelensky gave an unprecedented go ahead to allow a local election in Donbass which could result in Kiev granting a special status to the region, hundreds of nationalists flooded the square holding signs that read: “No to capitulation!”.

 

Protests this week outside Zelensky’s office, via AFP.

Zelensky insisted all candidates and political parties should be allowed to run according to Ukrainian law, which has enraged the anti-Russian nationalists, who say Ukraine’s sovereignty is on the line. The new election has the blessing of Russia and European monitors.

Bryan MacDonald

@27khv

In central Kiev tonight, some familiar scenes. A protest against on the Maidan. Against Zelensky’s announcement today.

Embedded video

Both government and pro-Russian separatist forces have agreed to withdraw troops from key locations in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions next week to ensure “free and fair” elections, which international monitors will also observe.

One journalist and political commentator noted the neo-Nazi imagery used in this and other hardline nationalist protests in Kiev’s Maidan, which has for years tainted some of the country’s far right militias and political parties.

Mark Ames

@MarkAmesExiled

Ukraine’s fascists in torchlit march against their Jewish president, accusing him of “capitulation” over peace moves.
We really fucked Ukraine up good. Not that anyone in the west gives a damn. https://twitter.com/radiosvoboda/status/1179088690196500480?s=21 

Радіо Свобода

@radiosvoboda

Акція “Ні капітуляції” під Офісом президента

View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter

Former president Petro Poroshenko also added fuel to the fire, saying the agreement is “a capitulation to Russia”.

“Without that, this [Minsk agreement] is capitulation to Russia. I draw your attention to the fact that they [the Ukrainian government] were not offered anything, they were offered only to be there at the meeting. And for this meeting Ukraine risks paying and surrendering,” he said.

 

President Zelensky’s first working visit to the restive Donbass region in May 2019, via Ukrainian President’s office. 

Poroshenko further echoed other critics who’ve said Ukraine is not gaining anything from the agreement after sacrificing soldiers that died fighting the separatists in a conflict that’s taken 13,000 lives – thousands of them civilians – on both sides.

Meanwhile, Russia has welcomed the news, with one senior Russian politician hailing it as “a victory for common sense and an overall success.” Kremlin officials also said they hope this will lead to substantive peace talks on the ground.

end

Baghdad, Iraq is the scene of mass protests.  Police open fire and at least 7 are dead.

(zerohedge)

Baghdad ,Iraq

At Least 7 Dead, Embassies Sealed Off As Iraq Protests Rage; Police Open Fire On Crowds

Protests in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad which began relatively peacefully on Tuesday have spiraled out of control Wednesday, and into other cities, after witnessing a heavy handed police response resulting in up to seven reported deathsaccording to data from Iraq’s High Commission for Human Rights (IHCHR), cited also by the AFP.

Though the initial protest origins remain obscure, the larger wave on Wednesday has been generally seen as fueled by anger over corruption, unemployment, and the lack of basic services.

Federal police have sought to clamp down on the increasingly violent demonstrations through rubber bullets, tear gas, and even the use of live ammunition. This prompted a statement from the US Embassy in the country, condemning the violence on both sides. At least 200 people were reported injured on Tuesday alone.

 

Protests raged in downtown Baghdad on Tuesday, and quickly turned violent, according to The New York Times. Image source: AFP/Getty.

“US embassy in Baghdad continues to monitor recent protests closely,” the statement read. “The right to demonstrate peacefully is a fundamental right in all democracies, but there is no place for violence in demonstrations from any side.”

The embassy confirmed that multiple protesters had been killed as it urged all sides to “reject violence while exercising restraint”. The Iraqi government has vowed to investigate the “heavy-handed response” of security forces in a statement as elsewhere security forces report the situation is “out of control”.

 

Social media image showed throngs of angry protesters in Baghdad on Tuesday. 

The AFP reported Wednesday that “Iraqi security forces fired live rounds on Wednesday to disperse new protests in the capital.”

 

Protests in Baghdad streets on Wednesday, via the AFP.

Repeat bursts of live fire can be heard in a number of social media videos showing Baghdad’s restive streets on Wednesday.

And late in the day Reuters reports armed elements within the demonstrators are now firing back on police in various cities in what marks a major escalation:

Gunfights between protesters and security forces broke out in the southern Iraqi city of Nassiriya on Wednesday, with elite counter-terrorism troops deploying after police “lost control” of the situation, police sources told Reuters.

Steven nabil

@thestevennabil

While wounded by the riot police ,this young Iraqi civil protester continued praying while live bullets were flying in the air near by.

Embedded video

As evening fell, large groups of young men were filmed making their way toward the ‘Green Zone’ – the high security zone of the capital that hosts embassies, diplomatic compounds, and the headquarters for various international organizations.

NetBlocks.org

@netblocks

⚠️ Urgent: Internet access has just been cut across much of including following the earlier blocking of social media platforms; multiple providers affected; nationwide connectivity now falling below 70%; incident ongoing 📉

📰 https://netblocks.org/reports/iraq-blocks-facebook-twitter-whatsapp-and-instagram-amid-civil-unrest-zA4zGlyR 

View image on Twitter
117 people are talking about this

There are reports that internet access has also been cut across much of the country.

Lawk Ghafuri@LawkGhafuri

Protesters are on Al-Jmhuria bridge in aiming to reach the green zone, while massive gun fires are heard being shot by the security forces toward the sky.

Embedded video

Expressing solidarity with some of the issues demonstrators have complained about, Iraq’s President Barham Salih issued a public statement late Tuesday, telling security forces that “peaceful protest is a constitutional right”.

Thomas van Linge

@ThomasVLinge

🇮🇶 BREAKING: several people have been shot by security forces as anti-government protests spread across the capital

Embedded video

The president added: “Our young Iraqi children are looking for reform and jobs, and our duty is to meet these legitimate demands.”

 end

6.Global Issues

Norway

And now our next nation ready to engage in QE will be Norway as they withdraw for the first time 395 million dollars from its sovereign wealth fund

(zerohedge)

Norway Unexpectedly Pulls $400 Million From Sovereign Wealth Fund

While analysts focus on rumors that Germany might be heading toward fiscal stimulus, another Northern European economic powerhouse might already be preparing for a government spending spree.

According to Bloomberg, which cited data from the Norwegian Treasury, the biggest oil and gas producer in Western Europe unexpectedly withdrew 3.6 billion kroner ($395 million) from its $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund, one of the biggest piles of capital in the world.

This marked the first time money has ever been withdrawn from the fund, which was set up in 2016 to manage Norway’s oil wealth. After oil prices crashed, the fund’s size stagnated. But Norway was able to start depositing money again in June 2018, and, until August, had deposited at least some oil proceeds every month since.

 

Then again, the fund’s decisions often take the broader investing community by surprise.

In an attempt to diversify away from energy, the fund dumped shares of “pure-play exploration companies” (a sizable chunk of its energy-related holdings) earlier this year. The fund also sold EM bonds to make more room for equities, another smart move that has paid off this year.

Similarly, the decision to withdraw money from the fund last month was particularly unexpected because the Norwegian government said in its latest revised budget that it expected to deposit a total of 34 billion kroner ($3.7 billion) into the fund during 2019. As of August, the fund has seen net inflows of 19.9 billion kroner ($2.2 billion), putting the government slightly behind its goal for the year.

Although the government refused to comment on the circumstances behind the withdrawal. But one possible motive can be found in the global oil market: Prices tumbled in August, sticking the Norwegian government with a hole in its budget. Benchmark Brent crude hit a seven-month low of about $56 a barrel in early August amid global growth concerns.

That’s well below the government’s oil-price forecasts from its revised budget. The Norwegian government had forecast prices between $67 and $70 a barrel between August and the rest of the year.

So, there’s one possible reason.

Then again, maybe Norway didn’t decide to pull money out simply to pump back into government services. Perhaps there’s some insight to be gleaned from the fact that the perennially bullish sovereign wealth fund has decided to take some profits?

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0934 DOWN .0002 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.53 DOWN 0.217 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2261   DOWN   0.0021  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3242 UP .0023 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 2 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0934 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 49.58 PTS OR .19% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,46%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 49.58 PTS OR .19% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.46% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 106.63  POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1487.30

silver:$17.30-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.62% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.09 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.26 UP 13 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.18% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.16%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.17%// UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.90 UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 73 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.54% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.44% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0951  UP     .0017 or 17 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.28 DOWN .459 OR YEN UP 46  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2309 UP .0020 POUND UP 20  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 76 basis points to 1.3294

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1483    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1483  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7034 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.16%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.60 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.07 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.04 DOWN 9  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 230.71  3.13%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 277.37 POINTS OR 2.26%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 114.94 POINTS 2.66%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 221.10 POINTS or 2.41%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 527.78 POINTS OR 2.47%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.67 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 57.56 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    65.23  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.01 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.54 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  52.60//

 

 

BRENT :  57.48

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.59  DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.08..DOWN 1 BASIS PT…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0958 ( UP 24   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.15 DOWN .598 (YEN UP 60 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.02 DOWN 10 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2299 UP 8  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7053

 

 

the Russian rouble 65.20   UP 0.01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 1 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3318 DOWN 10 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1483  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1458 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.54%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 494.42 POINTS OR 1.86%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 123.44 POINTS OR 1.56%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.45 CLOSED UP 1.89

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.088%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Markets ‘Feel The Bern’ As Global Growth Scare Accelerates

A manufacturing catacl-ism, a disappointing ADP jobs print, NY PMI plunges, crude builds (demand?), and fears about Bernie’s health sparking panic over Warren’s lead. But Fed’s Williams says they have the tools (well in one way he might be right there) and they promise to use them earlier this time… The (stock) market didn’t seem to buy it (even as the dollar and long bond ended unchanged)…

Although the market’s demand for rate-cuts in October is soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

China remains closed but US-based China ETF remains lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Europe was a bloodbath with UK’s FTSE 100 crashed today, dropping 3.2% – the most since Jan 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

US markets cratered today led by Trannies…

Trannies are down 5% so far this week…

The Dow is down 1000 points from the catacl-ism…Some have argued today’s drop accelerated when Bernie Sanders headlines hit…

Sparking this…

And all the major US equity indices have broken below key technical levels… (Russell 2000 <200DMA, rest below 100DMA)

Both Defensives and Cyclicals were hit today, but Cyclicals considerably worse…

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” stocks fell for the 10th day in the last 12 after a huge squeeze to start September…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX topped 21 intraday and the term structure fell back into inversion…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets are starting to crack wider…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were down across the curve today but there was a very notable outperformance at the short-end (2Y -6bps, 30Y -0.5bps)

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields fell back below 1.60%…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (3m10Y) remains inverted…

Source: Bloomberg

And the market shifted more dovishly – now pricing in 1.37 rate cuts by end 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar was very modestly lower on the day, mimiccing yesterday’s rollercoaster ride…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid all the chaos, cryptos were ‘stable’…

Source: Bloomberg

Precious metals were bid today, back into the green for the week as oil tumbled after a big surprise crude build…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures surged back above $1500…

WTI tumbled to near 2-month lows – unchanged in almost 4 months – after a surprise crude build today, erasing all the Saudi attack gains…

Gold topped stocks once again year-to-date…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, after being buoyed by ‘use-it-or-lose-it’ spending from the US in September, global macro data is collapsing fast…

Source: Bloomberg

Why ISM Manufacturing matters…

And, if you want to see what propaganda charted looks like, here it is…

Liz Ann Sonders

@LizAnnSonders

Spread between positive & negative sentiment concerning consumer & manufacturing found in major T.V. news programming: financial media can’t get more bifurcated over demand & supply-sides of economy@DataArbor

View image on Twitter
end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/this morning/USA

All Major US Equity Indices Break Below Critical Technical Support

The S&P 500 is testing a crucial CTA “trigger” level at 2903, but more broadly, all the major US equity indices have broken down below key technical support levels…

  • Nasdaq below 100DMA
  • Dow below 100DMA
  • S&P below 100DMA
  • Russell 2000 below 200DMA

 

Bond yields and the dollar are unchanged.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Dow Dumps 1000 Points Since Cataclysmic-ISM, Rate-Cut Odds Soar

Well that escalated quickly…

The Dow is now down over 1000 points since the dismal Manufacturing ISM print…

Trannies are worst for now but S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are all down over 2%…

And the market weakness has sent rate-cut odds soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

ii)Market data/USA

Donald will not like this: GDP estimates have now fallen to 1.8% in 3rd quarter GDP due to the dismal ISM reports.

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

GDP Estimates Have Tumbled Since Dismal ISM Report

Authored by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk,

GDPNow and other GDP estimates took a dive today on weaker than expected manufacturing reports.

The GDPNow forecast for third-quarter GDP fell to 1.8% today on weak economic reports.

Gold and Treasuries Rally

Mike “Mish” Shedlock@MishGEA

Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders@IanShepherdson “First-ever recession caused by actions of the president”https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/ism-worst-since-2009-on-severe-contraction-of-export-orders-HmsloO1pokqASW-qfnEvyA/ 

Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders

The Manufacturing ISM is in the second month of contraction and the worst since June of 2009.

moneymaven.io

Chris Temple@NatInvestor

Nothing like this stinker of a number to turn around and . . .and cause a reality check for https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1179033695187034112 

Danielle DiMartino

@DiMartinoBooth

ISM falls to decade low missing consensus of 50. New orders 47.3. Construction spending misses as well.

GDP Estimates

UPFINA@UPFINAcom

Q3 GDP growth estimate changes on Friday

Morgan Stanley ⬇️ from 2.1% to 1.5%
Macro Economic Advisors ⬇️ from
2.2% to 1.6%
NY Fed ⬇️ from 2.24% to 2.04%
Atlanta Fed ⬆️ from 1.9% to 2.1%

Oxford Estimate

UPFINA@UPFINAcom

The disappointing August real consumption and core capital goods orders growth caused many Q3 GDP growth estimates to plummet.

Oxford Economics’ estimate fell from 1.8% to 1.3%.
(h/t) @GregDaco

Article: https://upfina.com/terrible-combination-of-weak-consumption-business-investment-growth/ 

View image on Twitter

Real Final Sales

The important number is “Real Final Sales“.

That’s the bottom line estimate for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.

The GDPNow estimate of Real Final Sales fell to 1.6% yesterday, a new low for the series. It’s near, and possibly below the economic stall point.

Also, please see my report today: Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders.

end
New York City ISM collapses
(zerohedge)

New York Business Conditions Collapse

Just in case you thought the ISM number was a flukey ‘transitory’ one-off, the New York City ISM just plunged, with the outlook collapsing to its lowest since Feb 2009.

Source: Bloomberg

And ahead of Friday’s payroll print, NYC ISM’s employment index plunged to 52.5 from 69.0.

In September, top line and forward revenue guidance fell considerably. Both reached the lowest level reported since they
were added to the report in February 2012. Current Revenues fell from the breakeven point of 50.0 in August to 38.1 in
September. Current Revenues has never been in the 30s before. Expected Revenues, the largest mover this month, fell
37.1 points from 82.3 in August to 45.2 in September. The largest drop month over month before September was 21.4,
reported in December 2014. Expected revenues has been at the breakeven point a handful of times in the past, but has
never been below it before.

It’s getting harder for stocks to ignore reality.

end
the normally ebullient ADP report states that only 135,000 private sector jobs were created last month
the market did not like it…the all important jobs report will be released on Friday.
(courtesy Market Watch)

ADP says 135,000 private- sector jobs created in September as hiring continues to slow

Oct 2, 2019 8:30 a.m. ET

ADP says businesses more cautious about hiring

Privately run businesses created 135,000 new jobs in September, ADP says.

The numbers: The nation’s businesses added a modest 135,000 private-sector jobs in September, ADP said, in another sign that hiring is slowing along with the broader U.S. economy.

Economists polled by Econoday had forecast a gain of 152,000.

ADP also reduced its estimate of new jobs created in August to 157,000 from an original 195,000.

ADP is the country’s largest processor of paychecks for thousands of companies and millions of workers. Its report, produced with the help of Moody’s Analytics, helps evaluate the health of the U.S. labor market.

What happened: Big companies added 67,000 jobs, mid- sized firms hired 39,000 new workers and small businesses filled 30,000 positions.

Health care led the way, as it often has, by creating 35,000 new jobs. An aging population requires more doctors and caregivers.

Trade and transportations jobs increased by 28,000 while professional and business services hired 20,000 people.

Construction firms filled 9,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment barely rose.

The ADP employment figures tend to track the government’s official jobs estimate over time, but they can vary widely from month to month. The government’s report, which also includes government workers, comes out Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch predict a 147,000 increase.

And: Manufacturing slump could still hurt the broader economy, but not trigger a recession

Big picture: Hiring in the U.S. has tapered off since the end of 2018. There’s even been reports that some companies are reducing employment for the first time in years, though so far these job cuts have not shown up in the weekly tally of Americans applying for unemployment benefits.

Economists predict job creation will continue to slow owing to the ongoing trade war with China that has damaged the global economy and boomeranged on the U.S. Manufacturers and exporters have been particularly hard hit.

-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

We still have an acute liquidity shortage as another $42 billion in repo update was recorded,  This will last until Oct 10 and then we will see if the liquidity subsides or not.  My guess is that Deutsche bank is in big trouble and no bank is willing to loan it money which explains the poor liquidity

(zerohedge)

 

Fed Takes $42BN In Second October Repo As Funding Pressures Ease

One day after the Fed raised eyebrows when it accepted $55BN in collateral in its first repo operation after the notorious quarter-end liquidity crunch, an amount that was just higher than the first repo op the Fed concluded in mid-September after a 10+ year hiatus ($53.2BN) and which some saw as too high for a new month with $139BN still locked up in 2-week term repos, moments ago the Fed concluded the second overnight repo operation for October, one which confirmed that the recent repo turmoil appears to again be easing, as $42.05BN in collateral was submitted (and accepted) in the $75BN operation, a $13BN decline from the $54.85BN repoed yesterday.

The composition of the repo showed that while Treasury collateral declined from $50BN to $35BN, MBS actually increased modestly from $4.75BN to $7.05BN, with no Agency use again.

While the drop in total repo use was certainly an improvement from yesterday’s operation, the continued demand for reserves, even with $139BN in liquidity locked up in 2-week term repo which expire in the second week of October, suggests that the funding shortage is anything but a calendar event, and confirms that there is an acute reserve shortage, one which the Fed will have to address, most likely by resuming POMO operations to the tune of roughly $20BN per month… which for all the QE denialists, will be the same size as QE1.

end

Simon Black outlines the huge debt facing the USA and it is not getting any bettewr

(simon Black/Sovereign Man)

1,015,736,491,184 Reasons To Have A Plan B

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Precisely one year ago today, the US federal government opened Fiscal Year 2019 with a total debt level of $21.6 trillion:

Specifically, the US federal debt on October 1st last year was $21,606,948,183,180.23

Today is the start of the government’s 2020 Fiscal Year. And the total debt is now $22,622,684,674,364.43

 

That means they accumulated more than $1 TRILLION in new debt over the course of the 2019 Fiscal Year.

Think about that for a moment:

FY2019 was, literally, the BEST year EVER measured by short-term US financial performance.

The stock market reached an all-time high.

Real estate prices reached an all-time high.

Corporate profits are at record highs.

Personal income is at a record high.

Unemployment is hovering near an all-time low.

And all of these factors drove US government tax revenue to an all-time high; Uncle Sam has never had more income in its entire history.

Plus, there were no major foreign wars or natural disasters.

No banking crises or economic panics.

No massive bailouts.

And if you recall, the US government was shut down for most of the month of January due to a budget conflict, so federal spending was at a minimum for a good chunk of the year.

Yet despite this bonanza of good news, the national debt STILL increased by more than a trillion dollars!

HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE??

Here’s an even more startling way of looking at it:

  • In Fiscal Year 2012, the government spent $359 billion paying interest on its debt.
  • In Fiscal Year 2015 they spent $402 billion.
  • In FY2017, $458 billion.
  • In the Fiscal Year 2019 that just closed yesterday, they spent more than $540 billion just paying INTEREST on the debt.

Do you see the pattern?

This problem becomes substantially worse every year. And FY2019 was a GOOD year!

What’s going to happen when the economic sun isn’t shining so brightly?

It would be foolish to expect every year to look like Fiscal Year 2019. Honestly, the combination of so much good news and so little bad news in FY19 was pretty rare.

There absolutely WILL be problems in the future. Recessions, panics, downturns, bear markets, natural disasters, trade wars, military conflicts, debt crises, pension crises, etc.

Many of these risks are already on the horizon.

Then you have to think about how quickly the Bolsheviks are storming to power.

These people want to dump trillions of dollars on the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, Universal Basic Income, free university education, and pretty much everything else that Karl Marx wrote about in the Communist Manifesto.

How much additional debt are they going to pile up in the process?

The US government’s mountain of debt already exceeds 100% of GDP, and that number gets worse each year.

How much longer will everyone keep pretending that the world’s biggest debtor is simultaneously the world’s biggest superpower?

How much longer will financial markets and foreign governments continue loaning money to the US government at trivial interest rates?

5 years? 10 years? 13 months until the next election?

No one knows for sure. But you don’t need a PhD in economics to realize that this might not have a happy ending… or that you might want to think about a Plan B.

end
Now this is going to get interesting..a new whistleblower says that Boeing focused in profit over safety with respect to the doomed 737 Max
(zerohedge)

Bombshell Report: Boeing ‘Whistleblower’ Says Company Focused On Profit Over Safety Of Doomed 737 Max

The New York Times has published a bombshell report about a new complaint filed against Boeing by a senior engineer, alleging the aircraft maker concentrated on prioritizing profits over the safety of the 737 Max airliner. 

The Times learned about the new development from a source who requested anonymity, said the Boeing engineer filed the complaint after the two crashes (Lion Air accident in October 2018 and Ethiopian Airlines accident in March 2019).

Curtis Ewbank, the senior Boeing engineer who filed the complaint, called out top executives for publicly misrepresenting the safety of the plane. 

Ewbank designed the 737 Max cockpit systems that pilots use to monitor and control the airplane.

He said in the complaint that managers wanted him to examine a new system for measuring the plane’s airspeed. The new system, known as synthetic airspeed, uses several sensors to measure how fast a 737 Max is flying.

Ewbank said when the angle-of-attack sensors, which measure the plane’s position in the sky, malfunctioned, it would send bad data to other flight systems that would cause the aircraft to crash.

In both crashes of the 737 Max, it’s widely believed that the angle-of-attack sensors failed, then sent bad data to the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control system, which sent the planes into uncontrollable nosedives.

Ewbank said in the complaint to Boeing, “It is not possible to say for certain that any actual implementation of synthetic airspeed on the 737 Max would have prevented the accidents.” He said Boeing cut corners on the development of the 737 Max, at the expense of safety, all to please shareholders. 

Ewbank’s complaint said that Ray Craig, a chief test pilot of the 737 Max, wanted to examine additional sensors on the plane, such as the synthetic airspeed system. Still, Boeing executives frowned upon the idea because it would cost too much.

“I was willing to stand up for safety and quality, but was unable to actually have an effect in those areas,” Ewbank said in the complaint, adding, “Boeing management was more concerned with cost and schedule than safety or quality.”

A former senior Boeing employee, who spoke on the condition of anonymity with The Times, said senior executives considered installing the new sensors on the 737 Max, but realized it would be too difficult and risky for the plane.

Ewbank’s complaint wasn’t filed during the development process of the 737 Max. Ewbank feared that upper management would retaliate if he did so. 

He stepped forward this year and explained in the complaint that it’s the “ethical imperative of an engineer — to protect the safety of the public.”

“Boeing is not in a business where safety can be treated as a secondary concern,” Mr. Ewbank wrote in the complaint. “But the current culture of expediency of design-to-market and cost cutting does not permit any other treatment by the work force tasked with making executive managements’ fever dreams a reality.”

And by prioritizing profits, Boeing executives certainly seemed to rush the 737 Max from development into production, at the expense of safety, not just to contend with the Airbus A320neo, but to unlock billions of dollars in stock buybacks that were tied to significant milestones relating to plane’s sales. This enabled Boeing’s stock to rise nearly 300% in 36 months, while executives used the opportunity to dump company stock.

end
Here is the bank that is initially behind the Repo shock, JPMorgan..  But JPMorgan can also fronting for European banks especially Deutsche bank
(zerohedge)

Here Is The Megabank Behind September’s Repo Shock

Over the weekend, when trying to isolate the bank(s) behind the recent repocalypse, we looked at the aggregate cash levels of commercial banks in the US (which include foreign banks operating in the US) as published each week by the Fed, and found that cash at foreign banks operating in the US rose by a respectable $13.6BN in the week ended Sept 18, to $537,8BN, in line with levels where foreign bank cash had been for much of the past two months, while cash at domestic banks plunged.

“In other words”, we wrote “to find the culprit for the latest repo shock, don’t look to Europe (those banks have enough pain on their plate with the ECB recently launching QEternity, to also have to worry about overnight funding in the US) but look for clues among domestic US banks. 

Three days later, Reuters did just that, and in a report which surprisingly flew deep under the radar, appears to have found the one bank that may have been the inadvertent reason for the repo market to lock up on the 11th anniversary of Lehman when the repo rate exploded as high as 10%.

According to Reuters, “JPMorgan Chase has become so big that some rival banks and analysts say changes to its $2.7 trillion balance sheet were a factor in a spike last month in the U.S. “repo” market, which is crucial to many borrowers.

As a reminder, just days after the record repo rate surge, a clearly clueless NY Fed president John Williams told the FT in an interview that the Fed was examining “why banks with excess cash failed to lend to the overnight money market, following a week that revealed cracks in the US’s financial plumbing.

The answer: big changes JPMorgan made in its balance sheet “played a role in the spike in the repo market.”

Specifically, using public data, and conducting an analysis similar to the one we did last weekend tracking commercial bank cash levels, Reuters found that JPMorgan reduced the cash it has on deposit at the Federal Reserve, from which it might have lent, by $158 billion in the year through June, a 57% decline.

While JPMorgan’s moves were seen as logical responses to interest rate trends and post-crisis banking regulations, which have limited it more than other banks, “the data shows its switch accounted for about a third of the drop in all banking reserves at the Fed during the period”, Reuters adds. As a reminder, the recent slide in bank cash levels took the Fed’s reserves to the lowest level since 2012:

“It was a very big move,” said a Reuters source who watches bank positions at the Fed but did not want to be named. An executive at a competing bank called the shift “massive.”

And while other banks also brought down their cash, it was by only half the percentage, on average, according to Reuters calculations. One of them, Bank of America, the second-biggest U.S. bank by assets, with a $2.4 trillion balance sheet, took down 30% of its deposits, a $29 billion reduction, less than a fifth of JPM’s cash decline.

JPMorgan or not, as we showed for the past two weeks, total deposits at the Fed from banks have come down sharply over the past year as a consequence of the central bank’s decision to gradually reduce the vast holdings of bonds it had acquired to bolster the economy after the financial crisis: the reason is simple – as the Fed tapered its bond portfolio as part of QT, its deposits from banks have also declined.

“All of the banks were doing this to a degree,” said one Wall Street banking analyst, requesting anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record, adding: “JPMorgan does look like an outlier here.”

Ok, so we now know we can blame JPMorgan for not stepping up when the bank with the largest cash balances at the Fed clearly should have. But why?

Well, whereas in the past JPMorgan would have “gladly seized the opportunity to lend cash in the repo market, where loans are backed by the best collateral, often U.S. Treasury securities”, on on Sept. 17 even as the majority of repo loans were being made at 5% and above, twice the usual rates, “JPMorgan was limited in how much of its remaining cash it could provide because of regulatory and other constraints.”

The spike in rates reflected extra demand for cash, which was widely anticipated due to corporations requiring cash to make scheduled tax payments and banks and other firms needing it to buy newly-issued U.S. Treasury securities.

In other words, without the regulatory requirements and official constraints – most of which are created by the Fed itself – on JPMorgan, the rate wouldn’t have spiked to 10%, the person said.

Ironically, it was JPMorgan that made the biggest draws from the Fed late last year and bought securities, winning praise from analysts for locking in fixed interest rates before Federal Reserve cuts. Buying the securities also offset pressure on JPMorgan’s mortgage loan portfolio from falling rates. JPMorgan also needs cash for sudden demands by corporate depositors and to meet government requirements for reserves on checking account deposits.

It is this cash level that regulators now oversee to make sure there is no repeat of the cash crunch that took place during the 2008 financial crisis; as a result JPM must comply with rules which require banks to keep additional cash in case they fail and the government needs to transfer their operations in viable condition to other firms. Banks do not disclose how much of this so-called resolution cash they must hold, but the amount is clearly significant if $1.4 trillion in “excess” reserves turned out to be woefully insufficient.

Another post-crisis regulation imposes a capital surcharge on banks that are most important to the global financial system and it gives JPMorgan particular reason not to make repo loans going into the last three months of the year.

That is especially true for repos with firms from abroad, which include U.S. branches of foreign banks and Cayman Islands-registered hedge funds. Such loans could push JPMorgan’s surcharge higher, requiring it to carry an additional $8 billion of capital, a Goldman Sachs report said.

According to Goldman, JPMorgan’s capital surcharge is already the highest of any U.S. bank, which means its must make more profit from its business to produce the same return on shareholder equity.

Separately, as we reported before, Goldman analysts see the repo market pressures continuing under the regulatory constraints and what they believe is a shortage of extra cash on deposit at the Fed. Their solution: resuming Treasury purchases by the Fed, which they believe should conduct roughly $15bn/month rate of permanent OMOs, enough to support trend growth of the balance sheet plus some additional padding over the first two years to increase the size of the balance sheet by $150bn, restoring the reserve buffer and eliminating the current need for temporary OMOs. Altogether, this would boost the Fed’s balance sheet by a total of $180bn/year and result in net UST purchases by the Fed (the sum of the red and grey bars) of roughly $375bn/year over the next couple of years. When netting the purchases to rollover maturing debt, the monthly total rises to about $20BN/month on average.

For those asking, the $20BN in soon to be announced monetizations is virtually the same as the total debt purchased under the fully-upsized QE1 which was launched in response to the financial crisis, as the following JPMorgan chart shows:

 

Source: Monday Morning Macro

Just whatever you do, “don’t call it QE” or someone may get the impression that the Fed is once again in the bank bailout business…

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Fun and games with Deutsche bank’s financial “dirt” on Trump

(zerohedge)

Dead Deutsche Banker’s Son Peddled Trump Financial “Dirt” To The Highest Bidder – Which Adam Schiff Promptly Subpoenaed

A trove of insider Deutsche Bank documents was subpoenaed by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) after a bizarre series of events involving Moby.

Val Broeksmit, stepson of top Deutche Bank executive Bill Broeksmit – who committed suicide in January 2014 in the wake of several banking scandals he had overseen, had been trying to sell or distribute information from the German bank which he obtained after his father’s death, which may have contained information on Donald Trump, according to the New York Times

 

Val and Bill Broeksmit at Wimbledon in 2013 Via the NYT

Mr. Broeksmit’s late father, Bill, had been a senior executive there, and his son possessed a cache of confidential bank documents that provided a tantalizing glimpse of its internal workings.Some of the documents were password-protected, and there was no telling what secrets they held or how explosive they could be.

Federal and state authorities were swarming around Deutsche Bank. Some of the scrutiny centered on the lender’s two-decade relationship with President Trump and his family. Other areas of focus grew out of Deutsche Bank’s long history of criminal misconduct: manipulating markets, evading taxes, bribing foreign officials, violating international sanctions, defrauding customers, laundering money for Russian billionaires. –NYT

Broeksmit was eventually introduced to Schiff through the musician Moby (Schiff’s “friend and neighbor” who said the CIA asked him to help spread dirt on Trump and Russia – h/t @LeicaLexus). When Schiff refused to pay for the materials, the lawmaker instead issued a subpoena for them. 

Mr. Schiff’s investigators badly wanted the secret Deutsche files. Mr. Broeksmit tried to extract money from them — he pushed to be hired as a consultant to the committee — but that was a nonstarter. An investigator, Daniel Goldman, appealed to his sense of patriotism and pride. “Imagine a scenario where some of the material that you have can actually provide the seed that we can then use to blow open everything that [Trump] has been hiding,” Mr. Goldman told Mr. Broeksmit in a recorded phone call. “In some respects, you — and your father vicariously through you — will go down in American history as a hero and as the person who really broke open an incredibly corrupt president and administration.” (Mr. Broeksmit wouldn’t budge; eventually, Mr. Schiff subpoenaed him.) –NYT

All of that said, it’s clear that the information is of low value as it relates to Trump for two reasons. First, Schiff has them – yet is pushing for impeachment based on a phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky in regards to investigating former VP Joe Biden.

Second, Fusion GPS paid Broeksmit $1,000 to give the documents to a reporter for the Financial Times on New Year’s Eve, 2016 – so they’ve been in the Trump resistance’s arsenal for more than three years without seeing the light of day.

In Rome on New Year’s Eve of 2016, Mr. Broeksmit shared the files with a reporter for the Financial Times, periodically excusing himself to snort 80-milligram hits of OxyContin, and the journalist later connected him with someone willing to pay for the documents. On the third anniversary of his father’s death — Jan. 26, 2017 — $1,000 arrived in his PayPal account.

The money was from Glenn R. Simpsona former journalist who ran a research company called Fusion GPS. Weeks earlier, it had rocketed to notoriety as the source of the so-called Steele Dossier — a report by a former intelligence agent containing salacious allegations against Mr. Trump. Mr. Simpson was searching for more dirt and, Mr. Broeksmit told me, he agreed to pay $10,000 for the Deutsche materials. –NYT

Simpson then convinced Broeksmit to work with him – instructing him via encrypted messaging to start searching for “Any Russia stuff at all,” adding “Let’s get you here ASAP.

Two days later, Simpson and Broeksmit met in the US Virgin Islands to look for dirt on Trump, Russia and Trump donor Robert Mercer – a financial backer of Breitbart and then Steve Bannon. As the Times reports however, “They didn’t discover bombshells — more like nuggets. One spreadsheet, for example, contained a list of all of the banks that owed money to one of Deutsche Bank’s American subsidiaries on a certain date — a list that included multiple Russian banks that would soon be under United States sanctions.”

Mr. Simpson asked Mr. Broeksmit to travel with him to Washington and meet some of his contacts. Mr. Broeksmit shared some of his files with a Senate investigator and — after snorting some heroin — a former prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney’s office. The documents found their way to a team of anti-money-laundering agents at the New York Fed. Coincidence or not, a few months later, the Fed fined Deutsche Bank $41 million for violations inside the American unit that Bill Broeksmit had overseen. (A Fed spokesman declined to comment.)

Mr. Broeksmit moved to Los Angeles to drum up Hollywood interest in his life story. Early this year, a producer invited him to a dinner party. Among the guests was Moby, the electronic music legend, who told me he was impressed by Mr. Broeksmit’s exploits and existential sadness. Moby arranged an introduction to his friend Adam Schiff, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, which had recently opened an investigation into Deutsche Bank’s relationship with Mr. Trump. –NYT

After Broeksmit was subpoenaed by Schiff, The Los Angeles FBI field office contacted him, as someone coincidentally noticed his whistleblower submission to the Justice Department’s website (presumably satisfying the requirement for ‘first-hand’ information).

They wanted to talk about Deutsche Bank — one of the world’s largest and most troubled financial institutions, and the bank of choice to the president of the United States. Mr. Broeksmit’s late father, Bill, had been a senior executive there, and his son possessed a cache of confidential bank documents that provided a tantalizing glimpse of its internal workings. Some of the documents were password-protected, and there was no telling what secrets they held or how explosive they could be. –NYT

According to the report, “After the three-hour session, Mr. Broeksmit still needed some stroking, and the F.B.I. agents obliged. They told Mr. Broeksmit he could have a special advisory title. They promised to keep him in the loop as their investigation proceeded. They let him tell the world — via this article — that he was a cooperating witness in a federal criminal investigation. They even helped procure a visa for his French girlfriend.”

At the end of the day it appears that Brieksmit attempted to help take Trump down with information he didn’t himself understand, and he’s now being punished for delivering a nothing burger by The Times‘ David Enrich, who details it all in his new book – “Dark Towers.”

val broeksmit

@BikiniRobotArmy

Not sure what to say. https://twitter.com/davidenrich/status/1179014773805080576 

David Enrich

@davidenrich

NEW: The son of a dead @DeutscheBank executive — armed with hundreds of confidential bank files — has been secretly helping the FBI and the House Intelligence Committee investigate the bank and @realDonaldTrump. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/01/business/val-broeksmit-deutsche-bank-trump-whistle-blower.html 

 

END
Pompeo admits that he participated in a controversial call between Trump and Ukrainian President. Pompeo is angry that the Dems are bullying staff.
(zerohedge)

Pompeo Admits He Participated In Controversial Call Between Trump And Ukrainian President

Following a WSJ report earlier this week that claimed he had been on the July 25 call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo admitted on Wednesday that he was, in fact, on the call.

Yesterday, Pompeo responded to a subpoena from a House committee with a letter asserting he wouldn’t allow Democrats to bully State Department employees.

John Berman

@JohnBerman

BREAKING: “I was on the phone call.”

Sec of State Mike Pompeo confirms he was listening during conversation between Trump and Zelensky.

He dodged when Martha Raddatz asked 10 days ago.

The admission could make it more difficult for Pompeo to push back against House Committees that have subpoenaed him and several other State Department officials as part of their impeachment investigation. Because he was participating in the call, Pompeo could be considered a “fact witness.”

The Dems’ impeachment inquiry is looking into Trump’s dealings with Ukraine, particularly the perception that he had tried to withhold military aid to Ukraine as part of a quid pro quo. He asked Zelensky on the call about alleged corruption involving Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden.

Dem-led House Committees are now focusing on the complaint filed by a CIA analyst whistleblower. A record of the call between the two presidents was also released by the administration. If the Democrats approve articles of impeachment, Sen. Majority  Leader Mitch McConnell would have “no choice” but to preside over a trial in the Senate.

END

Bernie Sanders Puts Presidential Campaign On Hold After Undergoing Artery Blockage Surgery

A frequent laments about two of the top three democratic presidential contenders has been that they are just too old. Well, moments ago we got a sad reminder of just that when the campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders reported that Sanders experienced “chest discomfort” last night & was found to have a blockage in one artery, after which he had two stents inserted. His campaign says events are canceled “until further notice”

Full statement below:

LAS VEGAS — Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Senior Advisor Jeff Weaver on Wednesday issued the following statement:

‘During a campaign event yesterday evening, Sen. Sanders experienced some chest discomfort. Following medical evaluation and testing he was found to have a blockage in one artery and two stents were successfully inserted. Sen. Sanders is conversing a. in good spirits. He will be resting up over the next few days. We are canceling his ve. and appearances until further notice, and we will the next few days. We are canceling his events and appearances until further notice, and we will
continue to provide appropriate updates.’

While it is premature to make any conclusions at this point, it is likely that the unfortunate development will mean the Democratic race will henceforth focus just on the frontrunners – Warren and Biden – and with the former gaining ground aggressively in recent weeks…

… it may explain why stocks took another major leg lower following the report, very much in agreement with what BofA said yesterday that it is time to “start hedging election risk“, i.e., the plunge in the S&P that will happen if Liz Warren wins the election.

end
If Trump wins the election next year, he will mostly likely ask Bullard to become chairman of the Fed
(zerohedge)

James Bullard… Fed Chair?

While it has been a long-running joke among the financial commentariat that the key reason for St Louis Fed president James Bullard’s pervasive, at times grating dovishness, was to quietly slip into Trump’s good graces and one night, quietly, to replace the soon-to-be-fired Fed chair Jay Powell, who has provoked Trump’s ire with his refusal to slash rates to deeply negative and unleash a quadrillion-dollar QE, something Bullard would surely have no problems with except perhaps to withstand a formidable challenge from his even more dovish colleague, former Goldman junior banker Neel Kashkari…

zerohedge@zerohedge

All hail Fed Chair Bullard: you will now be paid to take out a mortgage

… it now appears that such speculation was more than just a running joke, and as Reuters reports Bullard – who for the past three years has emerged as the most “ardent voice” in favor of lower interest rates inside the Fed – has caught the eye of Trump and others in the administration” as the president pounds on the Fed to lower rates, albeit for different reasons than Bullard.

While one is worried the economy is slowing, while the other is certain it has never been greater, they both agree on what has to be done next: cut rates.

Bullard sees the United States as stuck in a low-growth rut, in contrast to Trump’s best-economy-in-the-world rhetoric. Still, the overlap in their desire for looser monetary policy may be on the verge of boosting Bullard’s influence.

So… Fed Chair Bullard?

 

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard

Well, why not: as Reuters reminds us, not only has Trump appointed one of Bullard’s top staffers to the Fed’s Board of Governors “an economist who shares at least some of his boss’s views”, but as noted above, there has been been speculation Bullard could be a top candidate for Fed chair if Trump wins a second term.”

But don’t take our word for it, here’s Larry Kudlow:

Bullard “is a real thought leader in the Federal Reserve system,” Trump’s chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow said last month, a remark the came just days after Trump had called Fed officials “boneheads” and Chair Jerome Powell naive.

It also came after Bullard – who several years ago was the most vocal hawk on the FOMC only to pull a 180 and to, alongside Kashkari, to become the most vocal dove – dissented against the Fed’s quarter of a percentage point rate cut because he wanted double that, his second dissent in favor of lower rates since June.

“At times I have been in the middle of the committee. At times I have been on either end of the spectrum depending on the economic situation,” Bullard said last week following a Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Illinois.

So is he running? Hear it from the horse’s mouth: “I think I have demonstrated my credentials as far as calling my own shots.

In short, yes. In an interview last month on SiriusXM Business Radio, Bullard said Waller, who taught at the University of Notre Dame before joining the St. Louis staff, would be a “great addition” to the Fed board who would have “his own views” about policy.

The two share some of the same concerns.

Both have made the case for more than a year that worrying signals in the bond market argued for caution on rates, with yields on long-term debt threatening to slip below shorter-term yields in a potential signal of coming recession. It’s a debate that overtook the Fed earlier this year when yields did invert, and added impetus to the recent decision to cut rates.

And while Trump would disagree violently with Bullard that a recession is coming, he would certainly find delight in the St Louisian’s penchant to grow the world’s biggest asset bubble even bigger, if it means pretending that the economy isn’t set to implode overnight, and rates can be cut just a little bit more.

When U.S. central bankers started raising rates in 2015, they thought they were on a climb back to levels near those that prevailed before the 2007 to 2009 recession. Within months Bullard lost confidence that would happen. He adopted a “regime-based” view which argued that the economy would not necessarily converge on one long-term outcome, the conventional approach to monetary policy, but could switch between different states. The new normal he saw was one of low inflation, low growth and low interest rates – until something happened to make it otherwise.

Waller was among Bullard’s co-authors of the paper introducing that view.

For a variety of reasons, that seems the world we are in,” said Yale University economist Bill English, former head of the Fed’s monetary affairs division.

Actually, it’s not a “variety of reasons”, it’s just one reason: the fact that the world can no longer grow on its own without massive debt creation, and since the debt capacity of the world has been breached, the only willing party to monetize all of it, is the Fed.

“I do think that broadly speaking both markets and parts of the committee have moved closer to my view,” Bullard said in an early September interview. “They might not use the same language, but I think they have moved closer.”

They certainly have, but the only person who is willing to sacrifice centuries of capitalist achievement and extend and pretend the dramatic play at any cost, even if it assures that the next financial crisis wipes out not only hundreds of trillions in wealth off the map but destroys the Fed itself, is Bullard which is why he is perfect for Trump, and we are certain that before it’s all said and done, it will be not just Bullard but Fed Chair Bullard. The only question is what happens after Chair James takes rates negative, launches QE4 (and 5 and 6, etc) and activates MMT, starting the countdown to the end of the dollar – and the world as we know it.

end

Schiff And NYT Do Damage Control Over Sneak Peek At CIA Whistleblower Complaint; Trump Says Schiff Wrote It

While President Trump is now accusing Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) of ‘helping to write’ a CIA whistleblower’s complaint at the heart of an impeachment inquiry, the New York Times is out with a Wednesday article designed to put distance between the House Intelligence Committee Chairman and the accusation – suggesting Schiff had no more than a vague sneak peek.

Jason Easley@PoliticusJason

Trump claims Adam Schiff wrote the whistleblower complaint.

Embedded video

As The Times reports, “The Democratic head of the House Intelligence Committee, Representative Adam B. Schiff of California, learned about the outlines of a C.I.A. officer’s concerns that President Trump had abused his power days before the officer filed a whistle-blower complaint,” adding “the original accusation was vague,” and “The aide did not share the whistle-blower’s identity with Mr. Schiff or anyone else.”

So – according to the Times, Schiff kinda sorta knew what the whistleblower said, and a House Intel Committee aide told him (or her) to get an attorney – Andrew Bakaj – who “interned for Schumer in the spring of 2001 and for Clinton in the fall of the same year,” per The Federalist.

The Times goes to great lengths to explain that nothing was untwoard.

“Like other whistle-blowers have done before and since under Republican and Democratic-controlled committees, the whistle-blower contacted the committee for guidance on how to report possible wrongdoing within the jurisdiction of the intelligence community,” said Schiff spokesman Patrick Boland.

Lee Zeldin

@RepLeeZeldin

Shocker (not really)…@RepAdamSchiff knew the whistleblower’s allegations before the whistleblower’s atty & before there was a whistleblower complaint. No surprise who told this person to be a whistleblower, hire an atty & file a complaint w no 1st hand knowledge. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1179457662414675968 

The New York Times

@nytimes

Breaking News: The whistle-blower gave an early account of allegations against President Trump to a House aide who outlined it to Rep. Adam Schiff, who is now leading the impeachment inquiry https://nyti.ms/2nWMCTp 

Trump, meanwhile, is gunning for Schiff.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump said Mr. Schiff should be forced to resign for reading a parody of the Ukraine call at a hearing, an act Mr. Trump has called treasonous and criminal.

“We don’t call him shifty Schiff for nothing,” said Mr. Trump. “He’s a shifty dishonest guy.”

Mr. Schiff’s aides followed procedures involving the C.I.A. officer’s accusations, Mr. Boland said. They referred the C.I.A. officer to the inspector general for the intelligence community, Michael Atkinson, and advised him to seek legal counsel.

Mr. Schiff never saw the full complaint or knew precisely what the whistle-blower would deliver to Mr. Atkinson, Mr. Boland said. -NYT

GOP spokeswoman Elizabeth Harrington, meanwhile, responded to the Times‘ article – calling the whistleblower saga ‘COLLUSION’ and a ‘CON JOB’ in a Wednesday afternoon tweet.

Elizabeth Harrington

@LizRNC

COLLUSION

Disgraced liar Adam Schiff’s committee directed the so-called “whistle-blower” to get a lawyer before he filed the complaint

Who did they hire? A Joe Biden donor, Schumer and Clinton attorney!

Total CON JOB

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Elizabeth Harrington

@LizRNC

“The whistle-blower’s decision to offer what amounted to an early warning to the intelligence committee’s Democrats is also sure to thrust Mr. Schiff even more forcefully into the center of the controversy.”

Ya think?!

Yes, people should take CIA coup attempts very seriously!

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Fox’s  @JakeBGibson: AG Barr has made two trips to Italy in connection with US Atty John Durham’s probe into the origins of the 2016 Russia investigation, according to a senior DOJ official. The most recent Italy trip was last Friday and Durham accompanied the AG. [Re: Maltese professor Mifsud]

@johncardillo: Barr and Pompeo both reaching out to Italy. This isn’t about simple introductions. It’s about alerting allies that justice is coming. @GeorgePapa19 has always said Italy is key to bringing down this house of cards. Mifsud is believed to still be in Rome under an assumed name.

In a related matter, there’s a report that John Solomon will soon receive State Department documents (via FOIA) on Hunter Biden and Burisma officials’ correspondence with the US State Department.

Pompeo says State Dept. officials won’t show up for scheduled impeachment depositions this week

In a fiery letter to the Democratic chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described lawmakers’ demand for depositions by five officials who played a role in U.S. relations with Ukraine as “an attempt to intimidate, bully, and treat improperly, the distinguished professionals of the Department of State… the Complainant’s letter acknowledges that the Complainant was not a direct witness to the President’s telephone call”…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/pompeo-says-state-dept-officials-wont-show-up-for-scheduled-impeachment-depositions-this-week/2019/10/01/b350f8a2-e459-11e9-a331-2df12d56a80b_story.html

@seanmdav: Not only did the IC IG admit tonight that it eliminated its requirement for first-hand evidence and changed its forms accordingly, it admitted that it changed its own whistleblower rules *because of the anti-Trump complaint.* https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/30/int

Intelligence watchdog now says whistleblower claimed ‘first-hand’ knowledge, in departure from declassified complaint – However, the declassified whistleblower complaint sent to Congress last week stated: “I was not a direct witness to most of the events described.  However, I found my colleagues’ accounts of these events to be credible because, in almost all cases, multiple officials recounted fact patterns that were consistent with one another.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/intelligence-watchdog-whistleblower-complaint.amp

Byron York Dismantles Inspector General’s ‘Confusing, Ass-Covering Mess’ To Explain Whistleblower Form    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/byron-york-dismantles-inspector-generals-confusing-ass-covering-mess-explain

Adam Schiff’s Office Denies Conflict of Interest for Staffer on Think Tank Backed by… [Burisma]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/01/adam-schiffs-office-denies-conflict-of-interest-for-staffer-on-think-tank-backed-by-ukraine-gas-company/

Inspector General’s Ties Suggest Ukraine ‘Scandal’ is Just More Collusion Hoax

Michael Atkinson, the intelligence community’s inspector general at the center of the so-called “whistleblower” report, is earning Robert Mueller-level adoration by the press…

     One critical period in Atkinson’s resume, however, has been overlooked—probably intentionally—by his boosters in the media: His work as a top deputy in the Justice Department in 2016 and 2017 during the very same time that the DOJ was investigating Trump campaign aides… Atkinson worked directly for two figures involved in both the counterintelligence probe into the Trump campaign and the set-up of former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.  In July 2016, the exact month that former FBI Director James Comey officially opened a case against the Trump campaign, Atkinson was named senior counsel to John Carlin, the head of the National Security Division. Carlin was Robert Mueller’s chief of staff when he ran the FBI and was appointed NSD chief by President Obama in 2013… Carlin now is a CNBC contributor…  https://amgreatness.com/2019/09/30/inspector-generals-ties-suggest-ukraine-scandal-is-just-more-collusion-hoax/

@ByronYork: Lots of people seem to really, really not want to know about the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation.

WSJ Editorial Board: Foreign Influence and Double Standards

Democrats want to stop Barr from investigating what happened in 2016.

    Democrats and most of the press corps want to impeach Mr. Trump for inviting foreign help to investigate Joe Biden and his son’s role in Ukraine. But at the same time they want everyone to forget that the Clinton campaign in 2016 paid for foreign dirt that the FBI used to justify a secret surveillance warrant against the Trump campaign.  That is what Mr. Barr has asked Mr. Durham to investigate, and the U.S. Attorney has a reputation for being thorough and fair… This attack on Mr. Barr looks like a pre-emptive warning to steer him and Mr. Durham off the case, or to discredit anything they might conclude or prosecute… https://www.wsj.com/articles/foreign-influence-and-double-standards-11569971481

There have been at least two major MSM hit pieces (one by WaPo) published on John Solomon over the past few days.  The fear in DC, the MSM and Dems over what is coming is beyond palpable.

We’re old enough to remember when the MSM and Dems desperately wanted to know who interfered in the 2016 election – and anyone that questioned Mueller’s activity was committing obstruction of justice.

Joe and Hunter Biden golfed with Ukraine gas executive in 2014 [group picture] https://trib.al/7Z0ktpf

@CBSNews: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says he has never met or spoken to President Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, who is linked to the events behind the impeachment inquiry https://cbsn.ws/2omDuHl

IG Horowitz – A Democrat Donor – Feared Pulling Punches to Protect Establishment Operatives

Horowitz is also married to a former Democratic political activist, Obama donor Alexandra Kauffman Horowitz, who helped run campaigns for liberal Democrats before producing content for CNN’s Washington bureau…

    “I see a pattern of him pulling up short and trying to be a bit of a statesman instead of making the hard calls,” 24-year FBI veteran Chris Swecker – who served as assistant director of its criminal investigative division, told Sperry. “I’m afraid he’s going to do the same thing with the FISA report – a finding that sounds tough, but in the end, ‘No harm, no foul.’”…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ig-horowitz-democrat-donor-feared-pulling-punches-protect-establishment-operatives

Something we recently noted: Professor @DavidBCollum: “During the [impeachment] trial, and this is what no one is thinking about right now, the President’s attorneys will have the right to subpoena and question ANYONE THEY WANT.” [Hello Obama, Biden, Brennan, Comey, Clapper, Bill and Hillary]

Judge to DOJ: Decide on charging Andrew McCabe by Nov. 15, or face release of FBI records

Saying their indecision was undermining the credibility of the Justice Department… If a decision is not made, U.S. District Judge Reggie B. Walton of Washington, D.C., said… he would order the Justice Department to release internal FBI documents related to McCabe’s firing by Nov. 15… former presiding judge of the secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court… [Judge has flaming conflict of interest]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/judge-to-doj-decide-on-charging-andrew-mccabe-by-nov-15-or-face-release-of-fbi-records/2019/10/01/3e169168-e3c4-11e9-a331-2df12d56a80b_story.html

end

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

 

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