OCT 22//GOLD DOWN 15 CENTS TO $1484.60//SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TO $17.48//HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AGAIN AT THE GOLD COMEX//WE NOW HAVE OVER 37 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX//RUSSIA AND TURKEY MAKE A DEAL ON SYRIA ALLOWING A SAFE ZONE FOR THE KURDS//IN THE USA HUGE AMOUNTS OF REPO MONEY MUST BE SUPPLIED AS IT IS 550% OVERSUBSCRIBED: WATCH FOR OCT 31/2019 WHEN HUGE GOVERNMENT DEMANDS FOR MONEY COME DUE//

GOLD:$1484.60 DOWN $0.15(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.48 DOWN 9 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold : $1488.00

 

silver:  $17.53

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/68

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,482.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/21/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/23/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 7
737 C ADVANTAGE 58 56
800 C MAREX SPEC 10
991 H CME 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 68 68
MONTH TO DATE: 11,911

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 68 NOTICE(S) FOR 6800 OZ (0.2115 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  11,911 NOTICES FOR 1,191,100 OZ  (37.048 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR OCT

 

 

16 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 80,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1280 for 6,400,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8248 UP 51 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8102 DOWN 94

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG  SIZED 2430 CONTRACTS FROM 211,348 UP TO 213,778 DESPITE THE TINY  1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  1125 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1125 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1125 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1125 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.625 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.880     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

YESTERDAY, A MINOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS DEMAND FOR SILVER WAS JUST AGAIN JUST TOO STRONG……..  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (1 CENTS HIGHER). HOWEVER OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 3555 CONTRACTS. OR 17.78 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

17,876 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 17,876 CONTRACTS) OR 89.380 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1117 CONTRACTS OR 5.82 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF OCT:  89.380 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.77% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1729.11   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2430, DESPITE THE TINY 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1125 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED: 3555 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1125 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2430  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A TINY 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.57 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 16 NOTICE(S) FOR 80,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.880 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4298 CONTRACTS, TO 625,390 DESPITE THE  $6.25 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 8891 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  8891 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 625,390,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,189 CONTRACTS: 4298 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 8891 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 13,189 CONTRACTS OR 1,318,900 OZ OR 41.02 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $6.25 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 41.02  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED. THE BANKERS WERE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $6.25) .THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS THE TOTAL OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES ROSE BY A HUGE 13,189 CONTRACTS OR 41.02 TONNES.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 104,770 CONTRACTS OR 10,477,000 oz OR 325.88 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6548 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 325.88 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 325.88/3550 x 100% TONNES =9.17% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4971.32  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    509.57  TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4298 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY(6.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8891 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8891 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 13,755 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8891 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4,298 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 41.02 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.25 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  68 notice(s) filed upon for 6800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $0.15 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64  TONNES

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: 

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;

A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.963 MILLION OZ

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2430 CONTRACTS from 211,438 UP TO 213,778 AND CLOSER TO  A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  1125:    AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1125 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2478  CONTRACTS TO THE 1125 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3555 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17.78 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 6.880 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1125 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.76 POINTS OR 0.50%  //Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 60.52 POINTS OR 0.23%   /The Nikkei closed UP 56.22 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0796 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0796 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0778 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Our resident expert on the Brexit tells us where we are now as Bercow blocked any meaningful vote

(Tom Luongo)

ii)Another whirlwind attempt on getting Brexit by Oct 31

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iraq

USA influence in the middle east is getting less and less. Now Iraq will not let the soldiers who have been in Syria enter Iraq

(zerohedge)

ii)TURKEY/SYRIA/USA

Lira jumps on reports of a Turkish deal with Russia over the Northern Syrian border which provides a safe zone for the Kurds inside Syria. Putin cements his role as chief arbiter in Syria
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)Canada

Trudeau overcomes scandals to win his 2nd term but he has a minority government

(zeorhedge)

ii)Softbank, Japan/We Work

Softbank took over We Work in a DIP move. Shockingly Softbank gives former CEO Newman a massive handout of 1.7 billion dollars for stock that is basically worthless. I guess you can state that we are in a massive bubble
(zerohedge)
iii)Buchanan is arguing that democracy is a dying species and gives evidence aso th the various riots we have witnessing throughout the globe lately

(Pat Buchanan)

7. OIL ISSUES

Saudi Arabia is again trying to get its IPO formulated..and yes it is mission impossible

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)You must must pay attention to this one!! JPMorgan warns that the USA money market  (Repo market) stress will get much worse.

(Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)On the same topic as above, Russ and Pam Martens finds that the Fed Chairman made a huge number of calls to important bankers..What was worrying him

(courtesy Pam and Russ Martens)

iii)Two more Deutsche banks going for a criminal trial for spoofing. The problem is that spoofing is only 1% of their crimes

(zerohedge)

iv)How we are hurt by continual low interest rates
(Alasdair Macleod)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a  i)As promised trouble in the repo market as again it is oversubscribed. If you think it is bad now wait until Oct 31 when the Government’s needs increase dramatically at that day.  The Government has a true deficit of 1.2 trillion and thus need on average 100 billion dollars of funding every month. That is sucking up all the cash and that is why we have global shortage

(zerohedge)

a  ii)Liz Warren asks Mnuchin why JPmorgan caused the repo turmoil which in turn forced the Fed into launching QE4 (POMO)

(zerohedge)

a iii)The banks have full knowledge that Powell will deliver POMO for the next 6 to 12 months equal to around 700 billion dollars.  Yet the banks are lining up at a wicket in great numbers as today\s POMO was 550% oversubscribed.  Seems that the banks are paying attention to Lee Adler that the bombshell will hit on Oct 31.

a iv)Peter Schiff gives a terrific explanation on the Repo market.  He compares the market to a Roach Motel.  Once you enter, you cannot leave

(Peter Schiff)
(zerohedge)

b)Despite the low mortgage rates, existing home sales tumble again in Sept.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)It seems that we have another massive scandal in the making: rating agencies are complicit in not downgrading companies that ought to be downgraded and this is especially in the lowest grade possible  BBB-

(zerohedge)

b)Heads start to roll at Boeing

(zerohedge)

c)Another good indicator that growth is waning..this time in semi-conductor field…

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Bernie blasts Hillary for her outrageous comments that Gabbard and Stein are Russian assets.  Clinton is a clown to the highest order

(zerohedge)

b)Wow!! Trump was right..The Ukraine was the centre for money laundering, election interference and the granting of money to Biden’s son for “protection”. This is going to be a dandy!

(CDMedia)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4298 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 625,390 DESPITE THE LOSS OF $6.25 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8891 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 8891   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8891 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 13,189TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8891 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A G00D SIZED 4298 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT FELL BY $6.25. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  13,189 CONTRACTS OR 1,318,900 OZ OR 41.02 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 199 contracts still standing for a LOSS of 830 contracts. Yesterday we had 893 notices served upon so we have another STRONG gain of 69 contracts or an additional 6900 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers/official sector in their attempt to find physical metal on this side of the pond.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a loss of 524 contracts and thus the OI DECREASED to 951.  The very big December contract month saw its oi ROSE by 1587 contracts UP to 471,446.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 68 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  6800 OZ. (0.2115 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2430 CONTRACTS FROM 211,348 UP TO 213,778 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A TINY 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 112 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 18 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 29 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR 55,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 13 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 496. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 1936 CONTRACTS UP TO 159,497.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 16 notice(s) filed for 80,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 189,255  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  304,561  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 22/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
68 notice(s)
 6800 OZ
(0.2115 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
131 contracts
(13,100 oz)
0.4070 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
11,911 notices
1,191,100 OZ
37.048 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else; 0  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ Today  zero amount  arrived

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 0  oz

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 68 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,911) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (199 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (68 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,204,200 OZ OR 37.55 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (11,911 x 100 oz)  + (199)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (68 x 100 oz )which equals 1,204,200 oz standing OR 37.55 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 69 contracts OR 6900 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical on this side of the pond. There is no doubt that these guys need to put out fires springing up everywhere!!

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT…..   37.55 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 70.155

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 67.555 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.789 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,634.308 oz or  35.789 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,186,281.706 oz 254.627 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 22 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 3,124.269 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
9,872.238 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
16
CONTRACT(S)
(80,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
96 contracts
 480,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1280 contracts

6,400,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 316,954.430  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  0   oz…6th day in a row ends

ii) Into CNT: 9872.238 oz

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 159.5 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.70% of all official comex silver. (159.5 million/314.3 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  9872.238  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT: 1016.705 oz

ii) Out of Delaware; 2107.564 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 3124.269  oz

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.793 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.54 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 16 contract(s) FOR 80,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1280 x 5,000 oz = 6,400,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (112) and the number of notices served upon today 16 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1264 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (112)- number of notices served upon today (29) x 5000 oz equals 6,880,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE GAINED 11 contracts or an additional 55,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 16 notice(s) filed for 80,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  52,669 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 78,829 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 78,829 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 394 million  OZ 56/3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.63% ((OCT 22/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.13% to NAV (OCT 22/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.63%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.44 TRADING 14.91///DISCOUNT 3.18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $0.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE : A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.45 TONNES//GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

 

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OCT 22/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 924.64 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 687 TRADING DAYS: 25.01 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 587 TRADING DAYS: A NET 142.13 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.963 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.797 MILLION OZ//

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ/

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

 

 

OCT 22/2019:

:

 

Inventory 377.834 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.88/ and libor 6 month duration 1.93

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: +.05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.88%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.08

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

JPMorgan Warns U.S. Money Market Stress to ‘Get Much Worse’

◆ Severe funding pressures in U.S. money markets tipped to resurface heading into year-end by JPMorgan who warn that financial stresses are likely to ‘get much worse’

◆ Goldman Sachs and Bank of America also warn funding issues remain (see below)

◆ Federal Reserve will start buying $60 billion of Treasury bills every month

◆ Funding markets are on notice for a possible year-end liquidity crunch

◆ Growing stresses in U.S. banking and financial system should support gold

NEWS & COMMENTARY

JPMorgan Warns U.S. Money-Market Stress to Get Much Worse

Global economy faces $19 trillion corporate debt timebomb, warns IMF

Gold prices inch up on upbeat risk sentiment

Silver prices rally 1.6% — leaving gold in the dust

PM pushes for Brexit deal vote after being forced to seek delay

Goldman warns that buybacks are ‘plummeting,’ ending a big source of buying power for the market

Wall Street rises on trade optimism

SWOT Analysis: The Dutch National Bank Is Bullish on Gold

Decoding the Fed – John Mauldin

More Unanswered Questions – Ted Butler

 

Understand the Real Causes of the Coming Collapse
Listen to Goldnomics Podcast Here

GOLD PRICES (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

21-Oct-19 1490.85 1491.65, 1147.81 1148.27 & 1334.91 1337.12
18-Oct-19 1487.50 1490.00, 1154.15 1155.64 & 1336.67 1337.28
17-Oct-19 1484.45 1492.65, 1151.64 1162.63 & 1336.60 1341.59
16-Oct-19 1482.55 1485.10, 1166.32 1155.85 & 1344.52 1343.27
15-Oct-19 1494.75 1487.80, 1183.69 1178.34 & 1357.08 1353.30
14-Oct-19 1494.20 1490.60, 1188.79 1182.94 & 1354.04 1352.12
11-Oct-19 1498.35 1479.15, 1197.93 1166.01 & 1359.90 1338.33
10-Oct-19 1508.20 1494.80, 1232.35 1222.75 & 1368.69 1356.38
09-Oct-19 1503.40 1507.25, 1228.43 1232.93 & 1369.00 1372.65
08-Oct-19 1500.00 1505.85, 1225.50 1233.14 & 1365.30 1372.28

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

You must must pay attention to this one!! JPMorgan warns that the USA money market  (Repo market) stress will get much worse.

(Bloomberg/GATA)

JPMorgan warns U.S. money-market stress to get much worse

 Section: 

By Tracy Alloway and Stephen Spratt
Bloomberg News
Monday, October 21, 2019

JPMorgan Chase & Co. says the money-market stress that sent short-term borrowing rates surging last month is likely to get much worse despite the Federal Reserve’s attempts to inject billions of dollars into the financial system.

The Fed has offered overnight loans and started buying up to $60 billion of U.S. Treasury bills a month in an effort to ease pressure in the vast repo market, where banks typically lend their assets in exchange for short-term financing. Secured lending rates shot up in late September, with analysts pointing to scarcity of interbank reserves as well as regulations that limit the size of bank balance sheets and their repo-lending capacity as the potential culprits.

… 

JPMorgan says it’s not convinced the Fed has resolved the issues in the funding markets, according to a note from analysts led by Joshua Younger in New York. Funding pressures resurfaced last week even after primary dealers, firms approved to trade directly with the Fed, took all of the available overnight liquidity from the central bank and sold it as many T-bills as possible. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-21/jpmorgan-warns-u-s-mo…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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end

On the same topic as above, Russ and Pam Martens finds that the Fed Chairman made a huge number of calls to important bankers..What was worrying him

(courtesy Pam and Russ Martens

Were Fed chairman’s August calls just ‘conspiracy theory’?

 Section: 

11:54a ET Monday, October 21, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did a lot of private talking with investment bank executives and sovereign investment fund officials in August, including the chairman of the Swiss central bank, which is a major holder of U.S. stocks, Pam and Russ Martens of Wall Street on Parade report today, having reviewed the Fed chairman’s calendar.

It’s hard not to construe all this as involving surreptitious market intervention, but mainstream financial news organizations and market analysts may do their best to construe the Fed chairman’s calendar as mere “conspiracy theory.”

… 

Wall Street on Parade’s report is headlined “Fed Chair Powell Met with a Sovereign Wealth Fund in August and Had a Call with a Central Bank Holding Tens of Billions in U.S. Stocks” and it’s posted here:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/10/fed-chair-powell-met-with-a-sover…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Fed Chair Powell Met with a Sovereign Wealth Fund in August and Had a Call with a Central Bank Holding Tens of Billions in U.S. Stocks

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 21, 2019 ~

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve

This morning the Federal Reserve pumped another $58.15 billion into Wall Street securities firms under the repo loan program it initiated on September 17. That program has been pumping out hundreds of billions of dollars each week to Wall Street with no authorization from Congress, as far as the public is aware.

We decided to take a look at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s daily appointment calendars over the past few months to see if there was any hint of what precipitated the reopening of the Fed’s money spigot to Wall Street for the first time since the financial crisis. We found a very interesting pattern of phone calls and meetings in the month of August.

On Thursday, August 1, Powell had a phone call with JPMorgan Chase’s Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon. The call lasted 7 minutes, from 10:30 to 10:37. Just eight minutes after that phone call ended, Powell had a 15 minute phone conversation with Michael Corbat, CEO of Citigroup. The Federal Reserve has a Vice President for Supervision of the big Wall Street banks, Randal Quarles, so it is not clear why Powell was talking to the big Wall Street banks without him on the phone.

On Tuesday, August 13, Powell had breakfast with Howard Adler, the Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC). The meeting lasted from 8 a.m. to 8:45 a.m. F-SOC is the federal agency created under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 to alert the Federal regulators of Wall Street banks when there are looming risks to financial stability on the horizon – ideally in adequate time to prevent a replay of the epic financial crash of 2008 which caught regulators napping.

Just 45 minutes after that meeting ended, Powell had a phone call with Thomas Jordan, the Chairman of the central bank of Switzerland, known as the Swiss National Bank or SNB. The Fed does not provide minutes or notes on what the Fed Chairman’s calls and meetings are about so all we can do is guess as to the topics covered in the phone call, which lasted one-half hour.

Powell’s call with the Chair of the Swiss central bank came 11 days after it reported its stock holdings to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and that report became public.

The Swiss central bank holds $92.7 billion in stocks, which are predominantly large cap U.S. corporations, according to its SEC filing on August 2 for the period ending June 30, 2019.

What is particularly noteworthy is that the Swiss central bank dumped a lot of U.S. stock shares between its last report on March 31, 2019 and its current report for the quarter ending June 30, 2019. What may have raised eyebrows on Wall Street is the tens of thousands of shares the Swiss national bank sold in the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

For example, SNB dumped 184,200 shares of Procter & Gamble; 477,400 shares of Apple; 341,000 shares of Exxon; 574,000 shares of Intel; 292,000 shares of Johnson & Johnson; 579,200 shares of Microsoft and on and on it went. The selling appeared to be indiscriminate, dumping consumer stable shares like Procter & Gamble, big oil like Exxon, semiconductors like Intel and pretty much anything to do with the big tech names.

The day after Powell had his phone call with the Chair of the Swiss central bank, he met with Brian Moynihan, the Chairman and CEO of Bank of America, which owns the giant stock trading house, Merrill Lynch. That meeting occurred on Wednesday, August 14 from 3:30 to 4:00 p.m. Again, there is no mention that the Fed’s Vice President for Supervision, Quarles, was present at the meeting.

But the following week is when things got really interesting. On Tuesday, August 27, 2019, Fed Chairman Powell sat down for 30 minutes with Lim Chow Kiat, the CEO of the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, a sovereign wealth fund known as GIC. That’s the same sovereign wealth fund that came to the rescue of Citigroup and UBS at the onset of the financial crisis. GIC invested $14 billion in UBS in December of 2007 and $6.88 billion in Citigroup in January of 2008. Needless to say, the stocks plummeted as the crisis amplified itself during 2008.

Powell did not call or meet with any other foreign central banks during the month of August – not the Bank of England, not the European Central Bank, not the Bank of Japan – just the Swiss central bank.

end

Two more Deutsche banks going for a criminal trial for spoofing. The problem is that spoofing is only 1% of their crimes

(zerohedge)

Industry groups defend former Deutsche Bank traders charged with spoofing

 Section: 

Ex-Deutsche Bank Traders Must Face Spoofing Case, Judge Says

By Janan Hanna
Bloomberg News
Monday, October 21, 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-21/ex-deutsche-bank-trad…

The criminal case against two former Deutsche Bank employees accused of fraudulent and manipulative precious-metals trading can proceed, after a federal judge today rejected their request for dismissal.

U.S. District Judge John J. Tharp in Chicago said prosecutors had properly used the wire-fraud statute to charge James Vorley and Cedric Chanu with spoofing, part of an alleged multiyear scheme to defraud other traders on the Commodity Exchange Inc., a venue run by CME Group Inc.’s Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

… 

Several trade groups, including Bank Policy Institute, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, had joined in the defendants’ motion to dismiss.

Chanu and Vorley are accused in a 2018 indictment of placing buy or sell orders for futures contracts that they didn’t intend to execute, creating a false picture of supply and demand, and profiting by executing trades on the opposite side.

Vorley, who lives in the U.K., and Chanu, a resident of France and the United Arab Emirates, argued that the federal wire-fraud statute was not intended to be used to prosecute spoofing conduct because the law requires making false statements, which the two say they did not make.

The judge rejected those arguments, saying in his 37-page ruling that omission of material information is also proscribed by the statute “if the omission was intended to induce a false belief and action to the advantage of the schemer and the disadvantage of the victim.”

“The government’s charges have always been and remain absurd,” Vorley’s lawyer, Roger Burlingame, said. “James’ trading was perfectly legal, and no market participant could possibly have been defrauded by live, at-risk offers to trade on an anonymous exchange. We look forward to trial.”

—–

The case is U.S. v. Vorley, 18-cr-00035, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).

* * *

iii) Other physical stories:

How we are hurt by continual low interest rates
(Alasdair Macleod)

“We’re Being Robbed” – Central Bank ‘Stimulus’ Is Really A Huge Redistribution Scheme

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via The Mises Institute,

When an economy turns from expansion to contraction there is an order of events. The first signs are an unexpected increase in inventories of unsold goods, both accompanied with and followed by business surveys indicating a general softening in demand. For monetarists, this is often confirmed by an inverting yield curve, which tells them that at the margin the short-term rates set by the central bank are becoming too high for business conditions.

That was the position for the US 10-year bond less the 2-year bond very briefly at the end of August, since when this measure, which is often taken to predict recessions, has turned mildly positive again. A generally negative sentiment, fueled mainly by the escalating tariff war between America and China, had earlier alerted investors to an international trade slowdown, expected to undermine the American economy in due course along with all the others. It stands to reason that backward-looking statistics have yet to reflect the global slowdown on the US economy, which is still buoyed up by consumer credit. The German economy, which is driven by production rather than consumption is perhaps a better guide and is already in recession.

 

After an initial hit, a small recovery in investor sentiment is understandable, with the negative outlook perhaps having got ahead of itself. But we must look beyond that. History shows the combination of a peak in the credit cycle and tariffs can be economically lethal. A brief return to a positive yield curve achieves little more than a sucker rally. It may be enough to put further monetary expansion on pause. But when that is over, and jobs begin to be threatened, there can be no doubt that central banks will ramp up the printing presses.

So reliant have markets become on monetary expansion that the default assumption is that an economy will always be rescued from recession by an easing of monetary policy, and furthermore that monetary inflation will prevent it from being any more than mild and short. We see this in the performance of stock market indices, which reflect perpetual optimism.

There is a further problem. Other than a rise in bankruptcies, unemployment and negative indications from business surveys, there may be no statistical evidence of a slump. The reason this is almost certainly the case is we are dealing with a combination of funny money and statistics which are simply not fit for measuring anything. The money and credit are backed by nothing, and when expanded by the banking system simply dilutes the quantity of existing money, which if continued is bound to end up impoverishing everyone with cash balances and whose wages and profits do not increase at least as fast as the surge in the quantity of money.

Indeed, the official purpose of the expansion of money and credit is to somehow persuade economic actors that things are better than they really are, and to stimulate those animal spirits. You’d think that with this policy now being continually in operation that people would have become aware of the dilution fraud. But as Keynes, the architect of it all said, not one man in a million understands money, and in this he has been proved right.

For five years, the ECB has applied negative interest rates on commercial bank reserves, and commercial banks have paid €21.4bn to it in deposit interest. Since it introduced negative interest rates, it has injected some €2.7 trillion of base money into the Eurozone economy, increasing M1, the narrower measure of the money quantity, by 61%. Almost all of it has supported the finances of Eurozone governments.

The effect on broader money, which includes bank credit, has been to increase M3 by 30%. Far from stimulation, this is daylight robbery perpetrated on everyone’s liquidity and cash deposits. It is a tax on the purchasing power of their wages.

The ECB is not alone. Since Lehman went under, the major central banks have collectively increased their balance sheets from $7 trillion to $19.4 trillion, an increase of 177%. Most of this monetary expansion has been to buy government bonds, providing a money-fountain for profligate governments. The purpose of money-printing is always to finance government spending, not to stimulate or ease conditions for the private sector: while some trusting souls in the system believe it is for the latter, that amounts to just a myth.

Due to the flood of new money the yields on government debt have been depressed, giving holders of this debt, principally the banks, a nice fat capital profit. But that is not the purpose of all this monetary largess: it is to make it ultra-cheap for governments to borrow yet more and to encourage banks to expand credit in their governments’ favour. Just listen to the central bankers now encouraging governments to take the opportunity to ease fiscal policy, extend their debts and borrow even more.

Central banks pretend all these benefits come at no cost to anyone. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a perpetual motion of money creation, and someone ultimately pays the price. But who pays for it all? Why, it is the wage-earner and saver and anyone else with deposits at the bank. They are also robbed of the compounding interest their pension funds would otherwise receive. These are the very people who, in a bizarre twist of macroeconomic logic, we are told benefit from having the prices of their everyday purchases continually increased.

Attempts to measure the supposed benefits of inflation on the general public are in turn dishonest, with the true rise in prices concealed in official calculations of price inflation. Suppressed evidence of rising prices is then applied to estimates of GDP to make them “real”. For the purpose of measuring the true condition of an economy these official statistics are taken as gospel by both the commentariat and investors.

We cannot know the accumulating economic cost of cycles of progressively greater monetary inflation, because all government statistics are based on the lie that money is a constant, when in fact it has become the greatest variable in everyone’s life. The transfer of wealth from all consumers through monetary debasement is an act of impoverishment, and to the extent it is not offset in other ways the economy as a whole suffers.

*  *  *

Excerpted from the article Measuring Recession.  Alasdair Macleo

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.0796/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0778   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 14.76 POINTS OR 0.50%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 60.52 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 56.22 POINTS OR 0.25%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.41/Euro FALLS TO 1.1137

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.59/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.54 and Brent: 59.21

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.37%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.92% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.26%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.29: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.29

3k Gold at $1487.50 silver at: 17.63   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 1/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.75

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.59 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9897 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1012 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.37%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.78% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.28%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8368..

Futures Rebound From Overnight Swoon On Strong Earnings As Key Brexit Votes Loom

After spiking higher in the early overnight session for no obvious reason besides a largish buy order in an increasingly illiquid market, US equity futures faded most of their gains during the Asian session despite some renewed “trade deal optimism” after China’s Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said that China and the United States have achieved some progress in their trade talks, before recovering much of their losses after the European open, and pushing modestly higher following strong earnings from P&G, UPS and UTX which helped push future above the flatline.

 

It’s a huge week for corporate earnings, with around one-fifth of S&P 500 members due to report, including McDonald’s and Procter & Gamble on Tuesday followed by Microsoft and Caterpillar a day later. So far results have generally surprised to the upside, although estimates have declined sharply in recent week. Despite the beats, analysts are still cutting estimates for next year as the protectionist dispute between the world’s biggest economies continues to take a toll.

Futures closely tracked European markets which saw a flurry of company results including UBS profit beating estimates as the Swiss lender said it will book a roughly $100 million charge in the fourth quarter to restructure a unit. Helping European markets, drugmaker Novartis raised its earnings forecast for the third time this year. The European banking sector was off its best levels, however, with gains in tech and real estate names offset by losses in household, travels and construction.

 

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed for a second day, led by health-care firms, amid rising hopes that China-U.S. trade talks will progress toward an agreement. Most markets in the region were up, with South Korea – seen as a proxy for global trade – leading gains. Japan was closed for the Imperial Enthronement day. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.5% higher after erasing earlier losses, with Foxconn Industrial Internet and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China among the biggest boosts. China’s central bank used open-market operations to inject the largest amount of cash into the banking system since May, as upcoming corporate tax payments tighten liquidity conditions.

 

India’s Sensex fell 0.7%, snapping a six-day winning streak, as Infosys plunged following a whistle-blower complaint alleging irregular accounting at the software exporter. Infosys sank as much as 16%, weighing heavily on the gauge and more than offsetting post-earning gains in HDFC Bank Ltd. and Reliance Industries.

President Donald Trump stoked hopes that a trade deal can be reached next month, saying that China has indicated negotiations are advancing and has started buying more American agricultural products. “There are still residual concerns about the outlook as we head toward Christmas with memories of last year’s price capitulation still fresh,” said strategist Greg McKenna. “But earnings so far aren’t as bad — or should I say much worse — than thought. And there is still much cash on the sidelines, and the increase in bond yields is mildly supportive of stocks.”

Eurozone government bonds yields fell on Tuesday, before a critical vote in British parliament crucial to determining whether the UK can leave the European Union in an orderly way on Oct 31. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces two Brexit votes in the British parliament on Tuesday. Lawmakers will first vote on a Withdrawal Agreement Bill and then on the government’s timetable for approving the legislation.

“It’s too close to call whether there will be a majority,” said DZ Bank rates strategist Daniel Lenz. “This may be also very much reflected by market developments, that you don’t see major movement to one or the other side.” Johnson probably has the votes to pass the withdrawal bill but may struggle to pass his timetable on Tuesday, the BBC’s political editor said.

Ten-year government bond yields across the euro zone were down 2 basis point on the day. Germany’s 10-year yield was at -0.36%, bull flattening with German 30y yields 4.5bps lower. Analysts said much of the optimism around Brexit is already priced in and expect subdued reactions. Euro zone government bonds sold off as the first signs of a Brexit deal emerged; the German 10-year bond yield has risen 19 bps since Oct. 10.

“The market is pricing a lot of optimism, a) on the no-deal Brexit being taken off the table tonight, b) on the deal being approved tonight. Therefore, there’s not much room for rates to move higher,” said ING senior rates strategist Antoine Bouvet.

As one would expect, overnight volatility in sterling remained elevated as traders position ahead of the Second Reading vote, with cable drifting below the key 1.300 level.

 

In other FX markets, the dollar caught a bid with EURUSD trading around Monday’s lows, CNH is offered above 7.0800, while Canada’s Loonie traded flat after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won a second term in elections, though with a reduced mandate.The shekel strengthened after Benjamin Netanyahu again failed to form a government in Israel.

Elsewhere, Italian government bonds outperformed, the 10-year yield falling 6 basis points to 1.03%. “Think of BTPs at the moment as being bunds with greater volatility. So when the bund market sells off, BTPs tend to sell off more,” ING’s Bouvet said. The European Commission has sent a letter to Italian authorities, asking for clarification over their 2020 draft budgets. Rome will reply by Wednesday. That said, a major conflict is not expected, unlike last year when the Commission sent back Italy’s draft budget and asked for a new one, sparking a surge in Italian yields. Italy’s draft 2020 budget assumes a rise in its structural deficit of 0.1% of GDP. Under EU rules, it should fall to 0.6% of GDP. A successful sale of BTP Italia inflation-linked bonds to retail investors also supported Italian bonds

In commodities, crude futures popped higher off the Asian lows back into the green. Mixed trade in metals, LME tin drops 0.6. Upside in prices coincided with reports that Indonesia’s Pertamina has temporarily halted fuel distribution via the pipeline in parts of West Java due to an explosion. Local media noted that the fire broke out on parts of the pipeline due to drilling activity in close proximity, although this was not confirmed by Pertamina’s spokesperson. WTI prices gained traction above the 53.50/bbl and currently eyes its 200 WMA at 53.81/bbl, while its Brent counterpart rose comfortably above the 59.00/bbl mark. In terms of demand side commentary, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2020 oil growth demand outlook to 1.3mln bpd from 1.4mln bpd and sees US oil growth expectations to be reduced, while it suggested there is room for OPEC output to increase beyond 2020.

In geopolitics, Turkey President Erdogan vowed to go ahead with its Syria offensive “more strongly” if the US “breaks its promises”. Further, Kurdish YPG Militia are to initially withdraw from the 120km strip of border with Turkey in Northeastern Syria, according to Turkish Security Forces sources.

Looking at the day ahead, as well as the beginning of the debate in the House of Commons on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, earnings season picks up again, with releases including UBS Group, McDonald’s, Procter & Gamble, Novartis, Texas Instruments and United Technologies. In terms of data releases, we have UK public sector net borrowing for September, Canada’s retail sales for August, and in the US there’s September’s existing home sales and October’s Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Finally, the Hungarian central bank will be deciding on rates.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,004.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 392.90
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 160.49
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 516.62
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 22,548.90
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,628.60
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 26,786.20
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 2,954.38
  • Sensex down 0.6% to 39,069.54
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,672.18
  • Kospi up 1.2% to 2,088.86
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.9 bps to -0.373%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1137
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.6 bps to 0.642%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.262%
  • Brent futures up 0.4% to $59.20/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,488.80
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.40

Top Headline News

  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson will find out Tuesday evening whether he has any chance of getting his Brexit deal through Parliament — and whether he can do it ahead of his Oct. 31 deadline
  • President Donald Trump said China has indicated that negotiations over an initial trade deal are advancing, raising expectations the nations’ leaders could sign an agreement at a meeting next month
  • Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won a second term in national elections and will lead a minority government with support from other smaller parties. The most likely partner for Trudeau would be the pro-labor New Democratic Party
  • UBS Group AG got a boost from rich Asian clients in a quarter hit by a poor result at the investment bank. The key wealth management unit added $15.7 billion new money in the three months through September, helping lift assets overseen to a record $2.5 trillion
  • House Democrats are looking to significantly advance the impeachment probe of Donald Trump with testimony Tuesday from the top U.S. diplomat to Ukraine, who had warned it was “crazy” to withhold military aid in a bid to get dirt on Trump’s political rivals
  • Two London investment bankers were charged in the U.S. with selling information about pending deals as part of a “large-scale, international insider-trading ring” that, prosecutors claim, generated tens of millions of dollars in illicit profits.

Asian equity markets traded mostly positive amid mild tailwinds from Wall St where all major indices edged higher and the S&P 500 closed back above the 3000 milestone with sentiment underpinned as officials continued to suggest optimism regarding a trade deal, although gains were capped amid a light calendar, Japanese holiday closure and ahead of a busy week of earnings stateside. ASX 200 (+0.3%) was positive with the index propped up by strength in the commodity-related sectors aside from gold miners after the precious metal trickled further below the USD 1500/oz level, while corporate updates also provided a catalyst. Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) were mixed despite a firm liquidity effort by the PBoC which conducted CNY 250bln of 7-day reverse repos for its largest daily net injection in nearly 5 months, with the mainland choppy ahead of upcoming earnings and with Hong Kong anticipating the announcement of further supportive measures for companies later today.

Top Asian News

  • China’s $208 Billion Liquor Giant Just Hit Valuation Ceiling
  • China Inc. in Exit Challenge as Deals From Yachts to Pizzas Flop
  • China’s Central Bank Boosts Liquidity Ahead of Tax Payment Surge
  • Infosys Dives Most in 6 Years as Whistle-Blowers Target CEO

Major European bourses are choppy (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%) albeit, the region drifted back into positive territory following initially losses seen at the open. Constructive reports on the EU/China trade during the early EU session ultimately did little to shift the sentiment at the time. In terms of sectors, the picture is mixed; with Consumer Staples (-0.5%) and Health Care (-0.2%) propping up and Tech (+0.4%) and Energy (+1.0%) topping the performance table. In terms of individual mover; Just Eat (+24.7%) shares spiked higher on the news that Prosus NV had made a cash offer for the Co, valuing it at GBP 4.9bln, or GBP 7.10 per share, Just Eat has since rejected the offer stating that it significantly undervalues the Co. in combination with Takeaway.com. Novartis (+0.1%) opened higher after the Co. raised net sales guidance but gave away gains in-line with the market-wide decline. UBS (+1.6%), SAAB (+5.4%), Software AG (+9.3%) and Sunrise Communications (+2.5%) were also beneficiaries of strong earnings reports. Conversely, weak earnings from AMS (+0.2%), Thales (-2.2%) and Reckitt Benckiser (-3.3%) saw their respective share prices under pressure. In terms of broker moves, a downgrade for TUI (-5.7%) at Morgan Stanley saw the Co.’s shares sell off.

Top European News

  • Just Eat Gets Rival Bid From Prosus, Challenging Takeaway Deal
  • John Malone’s $6.4 Billion Swiss Sale to Sunrise Collapses
  • Novartis Boosts Forecast Again as New Gene Therapy Shines
  • Reckitt Benckiser’s New CEO Lowers Forecast in Company Reset

In FX, the USD is on a firmer footing, almost across the G10 board, with the DXY edging higher after testing support ahead of 97.000 yesterday and the index regains momentum to probe above 97.400 within a 97.440-259 range. However, the recovery looks largely due to declines in rival currencies rather than self-generated, as the Franc retreats further from recent peaks and Pound succumbs to a bout of more pronounced pre-UK Parliament vote jitters.

  • NZD/AUD – The Kiwi is off best levels, but still outperforming and maintaining a bullish bias while holding above 0.6400 vs its US counterpart and having breached 1.0700 against the Aussie. Conversely, Aud/Usd continues to fade ahead of 0.6900 even though news on US-China trade has been mainly constructive of late amidst signs of the pair reaching overbought levels and a decent option expiry at 0.6850 (850 mn) may also be weighing. Back to the Nzd, trade data looms and may provide some fundamental impetus, while the Aud could be prone to comments from RBA Deputy Governor Kent also due later.
  • CHF/GBP – The major laggards as noted above, with Usd/Chf nudging towards 0.9900 and Cable retreating further from Monday’s 1.3000+ peaks in the run up to the WAB 2nd reading in the HoC that could set-off a chain of further votes and an extremely compressed timetable to get Brexit legislation in place for October 31. The Pound is holding above 1.2900 and managing to contain its pullback vs the Euro to circa 20 pips below 0.8600, as the single currency also fades against the Dollar.
  • JPY/CAD/EUR – All narrowly mixed compared to the Buck, as the Yen meanders between 108.50-75, Loonie sustains gains within 1.3100-1.3070 parameters after the Canadian election and bulk of votes indicating that PM Trudeau is heading for a return to office with his Liberal Party, but also conscious that retail sales and the Q3 BoC business/loan survey are on tap and could impact. Elsewhere, Eur/Usd remains capped ahead of 1.1200 and has tested the 100 DMA (1.1136), but not convincingly.
  • EM – Although the Dollar has pared some losses vs G10 peers and the Yuan has eased from recent highs, several regional currencies are staging comebacks of their own, like the Rand and even the Lira despite the impending end of the ceasefire and ahead of Turkish President Erdogan’s meeting with his Russian counterpart.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are choppy but ultimately in the green. Upside in prices coincided with reports that Indonesia’s Pertamina has temporarily halted fuel distribution via the pipeline in parts of West Java due to an explosion. Local media noted that the fire broke out on parts of the pipeline due to drilling activity in close proximity, although this was not confirmed by Pertamina’s spokesperson. WTI prices gained traction above the 53.50/bbl and currently eyes its 200 WMA at 53.81/bbl, while its Brent counterpart rose comfortably above the 59.00/bbl mark. In terms of demand side commentary, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2020 oil growth demand outlook to 1.3mln bpd from 1.4mln bpd and sees US oil growth expectations to be reduced, while it suggested there is room for OPEC output to increase beyond 2020. For reference, the firm’s demand forecasts are modestly higher than that of the EIA, IEA and OPEC. Looking ahead, trader will be eyeing the weekly API crude data, but before that over in the UK, the vote on the 2nd reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill may prompt some sentiment-driven action. Elsewhere, gold prices remain firmer sub-1500/oz despite a bounce back in Dollar as participants could be hedging ahead of upcoming risk events, and with US-China also still on the radar. Meanwhile, Copper prices are on the backfoot today, mostly due to the indecisive risk sentiment coupled with a firmer Buck with prices back below 2.65/lb ahead of its 100 DMA at 2.63/lb. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures rose in excess of 1.2% at one point as the base metal was bouyed by continued supply woes after Vale halted a tailing dam earlier this month followed by downgrades in FY iron ore and pellet sales guidance.

US event calendar

  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -7, prior -9
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.45m, prior 5.49m; MoM, est. -0.73%, prior 1.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I appreciate that the UK population is only 0.9% of the world’s total and that there are perhaps more important things for global markets in the greater scheme of things than Brexit but you only have to look at the selloff in 10yr bunds since the bilateral meeting between Varadkar and Johnson (+20.5bps) two weeks ago to see the impact that a no deal risk has had on markets. Famous last words but we should know a lot more by the end of today as to whether the U.K. will leave the EU by the end of next week (or soon after). As expected the government were refused the opportunity for a meaningful vote last night for reasons explained yesterday but they are pressing on with the Withdrawal Agreement Bill today, the text of which was published by the government last night. The timetable will be intense and perhaps one risk is that MPs feel like they are being rushed into it and don’t vote for a bill that they might have otherwise have done. The Government want to have it pass the House of Commons by Thursday (with midnight sittings) before going to the House of Lords on Friday in order to try to deliver Brexit by October 31st (next Thursday). There is a vote today on this timetable (7:15 pm London time) and that could be a big test for the government’s strategy. Before this, the government is likely to hold what’s known as the Second Reading vote at around 7 pm (London time)– on whether Parliament agrees with the general principles of the bill. Sources this morning suggest Labour will abstain on this which would mean this vote will go through. If true Labour will use the amendments to create difficulties for the government.

We’ve copied the timetable below. Losing the Program Motion vote, which sets the timetable for the rest of debate, would simply make it very hard to hit the deadlines.

Tuesday

  • 12.30 p.m.Second Reading debate starts
  • 7 p.m.Vote on Second Reading – the general principle of the bill
  • 7.15 p.m.Vote on Program Motion – the timetable for the rest of the bill’s passage
  • 7.30 p.m.(If Program Motion passes) Committee Stage begins
  • 10.30 p.m.First Committee Stage votes

Wednesday

  • After 12.30 p.m. Committee Stage continues, with votes every three hours. Amendments on keeping the U.K. in a customs union with the EU and calling a second referendum are likely to appear
  • After Midnight Committee Stage finishes

Thursday

  • After 11 a.m.Report Stage begins. More amendments can still be proposed
  • After 5 p.m.Report Stage votes
  • After 7 p.m.Third Reading vote — the House of Commons’s final say on the bill

Even if the Program Motion passes, the passage of this legislation is also likely to be fraught, as opponents of the Brexit deal have already said that they’ll seek to amend the legislation as it passes through the Committee stage. As we discussed yesterday, likely amendments to watch out for will be those calling for a second referendum and another seeking a customs union. Labour’s shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer has also said that Labour would seek to avoid the possibility that at the end of the transition, the UK could simply revert to a no-deal scenario if no free-trade agreement has been reached with the EU. On Sunday it looked like momentum was building towards a customs union membership amendment passing. However the DUP seemed to indicate yesterday that they wouldn’t support it and a number of MPs who have previously supported it in indicative votes suggested they wouldn’t this time. Much might depend on the SNP and Lib Dems whose policy is to stop Brexit and therefore would only vote for it to bide time and complicate the government’s task. They may do so. The government have hinted they would withdraw the bill if such an amendment passes and we could soon be in caretaker government / imminent election territory. A second referendum amendment is not likely to pass according to those journalists close to the action but the Customs Union one is closer depending on the above.

Sterling was relatively strong yesterday as the dip was quite rightly bought, given the balance of risks, climbing above $1.30 in trading for the first time since May 13 yesterday. It ended up finishing -0.16% at $1.296, though that was +0.66% off its earlier lows from the open. Its trading up +0.16% this morning at $1.2981.

Amidst the political developments, equity markets advanced yesterday as optimism over the Brexit saga and positive noises on trade boosted sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic. The S&P 500 closed up +0.69% to reach its highest level in a month, leaving the index shy of just a +0.64% rise from its all-time high back in July. The NASDAQ (+0.91%) also advanced, although the Dow Jones was up just +0.21% thanks to Boeing, which fell -3.76% yesterday ahead of its earnings release. The energy sector led sectoral gains, closing +1.86% higher, led by Halliburton (+6.35%) after a strong earnings report. The company announced plans to expand more aggressively overseas, while simultaneously limiting costs in the US. The positive earnings momentum outweighed the fall in oil prices, with Brent down -0.62%.

Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.61%), the DAX (+1.0x%) and the FTSE MIB (+0.91%) all climbed to their highest levels in over a year. It was the reverse picture in bond markets, with sovereign bonds losing ground and curves steepening in both the US and Europe. 10yr Treasuries ended the day +4.7bps, while the 2s10s curve steepened +0.2bps to its highest level since July. Bund yields climbed +3.8bps to -0.344%, also its highest level since July, while OATs (+3.3bps), BTPs (+5.8bps) and Gilts (+4.1bps) also suffered losses. Banks were the beneficiaries however, with the S&P 500 Banks index up +2.02% at a thirteen month high, while the STOXX Banks was also up +2.17% to its highest level since May.

There was little to report directly on the trade war yesterday, though President Trump did say that a deal with China was coming along very well, while the Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow said to Fox Business that President Trump could call off the planned December tariffs if the talks went positively. Meanwhile Reuters reported that China was seeking $2.4bn in retaliatory sanctions against the US in response to the US failing to comply with a previous Obama-era WTO ruling. This should be separate from the trade war noise. In the FX market, the dollar snapped a run of four consecutive sessions lower to close up +0.05%.

Overnight Asian markets are trading mixed with the Kospi (+1.17%) and Hang Seng (+0.15%) up while the Shanghai Comp (-0.09%) is down. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.20%.

In other news, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won a second term in national elections with a reduced mandate as his Liberal Party won or was leading in 155 of Canada’s 338 electoral districts, short of the 170 needed for a majority in Parliament. The most likely partner for Trudeau would be the pro-labor New Democratic Party, which is on track to win 26 seats, giving the two parties a combined 181. The Canadian dollar is trading largely flat this morning at 1.3082.

Chilean assets slumped yesterday as markets reacted to recent protests in the country that have seen 11 people killed. The country’s IPSA equity index was down -4.61%, its worst daily performance in nearly two years, while the Chilean peso weakened -2.26% against the US dollar, its sharpest depreciation in four years. The unrest was originally started by a now-suspended rise in public transport fares, but has since become a broader movement against inequality and economic conditions. President Sebastian Pinera has taken a tough stance against the rioters, saying in a speech on Sunday night that “We are at war against a powerful, relentless enemy”. It’s worth keeping an eye out on copper prices (up a further c. 0.40% this morning), which rose to their highest level in over a month yesterday, as Chile is the world’s biggest copper producer and unions in the country have called for strikes that could threaten supply.

There was little in the way of data, though German PPI in September fell by -0.1% yoy (vs. -0.2% expected), which was the first yoy decline since October 2016. Energy prices dragged in particular, down -1.9% over the last year, with the PPI excluding energy actually up +0.5%. However, the market’s expectations of euro area inflation seem to be rising, with five-year forward five-year inflation swaps up +1.5bps to 1.238% yesterday, their highest level in a month.

Turning to the day ahead, as well as the beginning of the debate in the House of Commons on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, earnings season picks up again, with releases including UBS Group, McDonald’s, Procter & Gamble, Novartis, Texas Instruments and United Technologies. In terms of data releases, we have UK public sector net borrowing for September, Canada’s retail sales for August, and in the US there’s September’s existing home sales and October’s Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Finally, the Hungarian central bank will be deciding on rates.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.76 POINTS OR 0.50%  //Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 60.52 POINTS OR 0.23%   /The Nikkei closed UP 56.22 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0796 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0796 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0778 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Our resident expert on the Brexit tells us where we are now as Bercow blocked any meaningful vote

(Tom Luongo)

By Blocking Boris, Bercow Bins Any Real Brexit

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

House of Commons Speaker John Bercow denied Boris Johnson’s government a meaningful vote on his EU Withdrawal Treaty on Monday after allowing Oliver Letwin to table an amendment designed to force the Government to withdraw it on Saturday.

That amendment passed and the vote was withdrawn. And the question now is what’s next?

The better question is why? Why did they do this when it raises the probability of a No-Deal Brexit given the ‘no extension’ rhetoric coming from the EU?

The answer should be self-evident. The EU will happily grant an extension if the right conditions are in place. And those conditions are simply anything that continues to pave the path towards overturning the 2016 Brexit Referendum vote.

The EU agreed to Boris Johnson’s deal last week because it was the closest thing to a perfect deal for them they would get in a reasonable time frame. The EU want a deal because it brings more certainty to the financial and investment situation across the continent.

What I wrote for Money and Markets on Friday still holds in my opinion:

The EU really thought they had this thing stitched up, as the Brits would say. But the war of attrition they waged against Brexiteers worked against them. Public opinion in the U.K. has hardened around a “No Deal” option and Nigel Farage’s sniping at the Tories’ mishandling of Brexit has been incredibly effective.

I have little doubt that this is what I or Nigel Farage would consider a good deal. In fact, it’s a terrible treaty that sees the U.K. give up most of its leverage in return for very few guarantees.

But it was a deal that was politically possible given the circumstances. And the movement by Brussels at the last minute is your clue that economic conditions on the European continent are far worse than they are letting on.

I’ve been banging on about this for months, Germany’s economy is crashing. As that continued and the domestic political pressure mounts on Angela Merkel, the leverage was rising on the U.K.’s side of the negotiations.

And since Johnson has done the politically unthinkable, get a deal from the EU, his opponents in Parliament are now trying to ensure that whatever happens next he will pay a terrible price politically for it.

The longer the uncertainty goes on the more likely it will be that Europe will enter the terminal phase of its brewing sovereign debt crisis. Markets are nearly paralyzed by Brexit at this point.

But we’re beginning to see the effects of Brexit fatigue on bond yields. The mother of safe-haven trades has waned in intensity now that the central banks have come in with new QE and liquidity guarantees.

Is this the beginning of the end of the massive bull market into any first-world sovereign debt? Similar technical reversals are in play all across European Bond yields.

So, something is breaking. It may be more that just Deutsche Bank.

So back to Bercow, Letwin and Brexit.

Bercow’s refusal to allow a vote on Parliamentary approval of the Withdrawal Agreement is a way to ensure that Parliament can attach amendments to the bill against the government’s wishes.

It’s not like Bercow hasn’t done this before. At every turn he’s interpreted the rule book to suit the agenda of those that want Brexit stopped at any cost.

The Guardian has a good rundown on this because, of course, they’ve been made privy to the Remainer plan to stop Brexit.

And the plan now is for Labour to work with Northern Ireland’s DUP to form an alliance against Johnson’s deal and work towards a Second Referendum.

Because that is what the price of Johnson’s deal will be to get a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through Parliament both a Second Referendum and the addition of the Customs Union.

Any attempt to get a customs union added to Johnson’s deal would probably need to involve former Tory MPs as well as the DUP. A source close to the group of 21 former Tories suggested they might be more interested in the deal being amended to make sure the UK does not crash out on no-deal terms. Most in the group are also keen to make a deal work rather than opt for a second referendum.

However, speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show,{Labour Brexit Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir} Starmer said he believes a second referendum was still possible. He also suggested Labour could vote for Johnson’s deal if a second referendum was added to the withdrawal agreement bill, despite the party’s fundamental objections to the terms of the UK’s proposed departure from the EU.

Keir Starmer can live with this deal, don’t kid yourself. What he wants, however, is to stop Brexit entirely and humiliate the Tories in the process. We have moved far beyond the appearance of doing the right thing for the British people and moved entirely into cynical machinations to thwart Brexit.

From the Guardian here’s the current Flowchart (before Bercow’s ruling):

Everything on the left-hand side is moot. It is the right side that is now in play.

Note how everything ends with 2nd referendum or an even worse version of BRINO — Brexit in Name Only.

This is why Guy Verhofstadt and the Brexit Steering Committee won’t recommend the Treaty for a vote to the European Parliament until next week. They are banking on events falling into place that leads us right back to the U.K. staying in the EU.

So, today, Johnson will put forth the bill. Bercow will allow a hundred and forty-seven Remain amendments. Johnson will likely pull the bill from a vote because it will be unacceptable.

The EU will grant an extension after that just as The Guardian suggests and then Johnson will be in hot water next week as Parliament, under Bercow, will likely seek to remove him from office and install a last-minute caretaker government to ensure a second referendum of BRINO vs. Remain are the only options.

The Tories that held their noses to get Brexit done and back Boris’ rotten treaty will have betrayed Northern Ireland and their voters for nothing.

Because there will be no General Election until the threat of Brexit is off the table in any meaningful way. This is purely a power play at this point and there is little anyone in the U.K. can do about it as every trick available has and will be used to stop it.

I said this a month ago, Brexit has devolved into random acts of vandalism. And I feel it’s quite clear that most commentators on this process are simply not cynical enough to understand the depth of that statement.

These people are full of envy and despite. They hate having lost the vote. They hate having to implement it. They hate the people for putting them in this position in the first place.

And their threats are nothing more than statements of their allegiance to the EU first and everyone else second.

Because if their allegiance was to the U.K. first they would back an election. They would trust the people to make the choice. But they won’t do that.

Their play now is to throw caution to the wind about what happens after the next General Election. It doesn’t matter that the people hate them. The new treaty or any one cooked up by a caretaker government will have no escape clause.

A parliament in disgrace, a government neutered by over-reaching courts, and a treaty that leaves the U.K. in Zombieland neither free nor prosperous is what the next government will have to contend with with or without a second referendum.

And even if that government is a coalition between Johnson’s Tories and Farage’s Brexit Party, there won’t be any good will between them to present a unified front to the EU since Johnson’s whole Brexit strategy was to deliver BRINO while neutering the challenge Farage represents.

Party before country. Politics before the people. That’s the true story of Brexit.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you want help navigating these chaotic times. Install the Brave Browser to earn crypto, retain some privacy, support your favorite creators and suck money away from the Google Vacuum.

END

Another whirlwind attempt on getting Brexit by Oct 31

(zerohedge)

Johnson Seeks Approval For “Whirlwind” Votes On Brexit Plan

Update (0845ET): Cable is sliding after The BBC reports that a source at No.10 says “if Parliament votes again for delay by voting down the programme motion, and the EU offers delay until 31 Jan — then we will pull the Bill, there will be no further business for Parliament and we’ll move to an election before Christmas”

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, after being twice stymied by the opposition during Saturday’s historic session and again on Monday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing the beginning of an accelerated series of votes with the ultimate goal of pushing his withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons this week, which would ensure that the UK leaves the EU at the end of the month.

However, some of the MPs who ostensibly support his Brexit deal apparently have reservations about this three-day “whirlwind” timetable. According to the Times of London, Johnson has been warned that his attempt to kick off the votes on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill Tuesday night will be met with defeat unless he agrees to a longer post-Brexit transition.

Nick Boles, a member of the group of Tory rebels who left the party last month, has proposed an amendment to extend the Brexit transition period until the end of 2022 unless MPs pass a resolution to cut it short.

Last night, Johnson’s government officially published the “withdrawal agreement bill” for its first reading (of three). That bill is likely to pass its first vote on Tuesday (the “second reading” vote) thanks to the support of expelled former Tories and opposition rebels, despite confusion over Labour’s official stance on the second reading. Another vote on Tuesday over whether to approve the express timetable for the WAB (withdrawal agreement bill) could derail the prime minister’s Brexit dash, as several former Tory rebels have warned that they want to slow down the process to ensure the “proper scrutiny” is applied.

Rory Stewart, a former Tory who was expelled from the party last month, warned against ramming the bill through Parliament, arguing that it might “further undermine confidence in our institutions.”

“That means delivering a deal with proper process and scrutiny. Ramming through the bill will further undermine confidence in our institutions. We must do this properly.”

If the program motion – the technical term for the vote on whether to accelerate the process of passing the withdrawal agreement bill – fails, it will virtually ensure that the UK doesn’t complete the Brexit process at the end of the month. The EU has so far held off on granting an official extension, since it’s waiting on developments in Westminster.

The Tory whip has warned that the vote on the program motion will be tight, and that Johnson will need to pick up 20 opposition votes to offset votes from former conservatives.

However, since most sell-side research shops and the FT’s vote tracker now believe Johnson has the votes to ultimately pass his Brexit deal – even without the support of the DUP and its 10 MPs – it’s widely expected that any Brexit delay from this point onward would likely be brief. However, Johnson has reportedly warned MPs that he would abandon the bill if MPs force through amendments that are outside the scope of the deal with the EU. Opponents of Johnson’s deal have also warned that they might attempt to amend it as it goes through the committee stage.

Of course, that could swiftly leave the UK in caretaker government/election territory, as analysts at DB warn.

Also, thanks to the transition period, Britain won’t actually finish with the business of leaving the EU until the end of next year.

Johnson hopes to pass the WAB by end of day Thursday, giving the House of Lords a chance to vote on Friday.

Since Johnson is facing a punishing gauntlet of votes, yields on eurozone bonds dropped on Tuesday morning, reflecting the market’s anxieties as the deadline approaches. The pound was also weakening early in the day in New York.

Here’s a schedule of upcoming Commons votes (courtesy of DB):

Tuesday

12.30 p.m.: Second Reading debate starts

7 p.m.: Vote on Second Reading – the general principle of the bill

7.15 p.m.: Vote on Program Motion – the timetable for the rest of the bill’s passage

7.30 p.m.: (If Program Motion passes) Committee Stage begins

10.30 p.m.: First Committee Stage votes

Wednesday

After 12.30 p.m.: Committee Stage continues, with votes every three hours. Amendments on keeping the U.K. in a customs union with the EU and calling a second referendum are likely to appear

After Midnight: Committee Stage finishes

Thursday

After 11 a.m.: Report Stage begins. More amendments can still be proposed

After 5 p.m.: Report Stage votes

After 7 p.m.: Third Reading vote – the House of Commons’s final say on the bill

Ultimately, both the FT’s vote-tracker and most sell-side research shops expect the a final vote on the withdrawal agreement to pass by a moderate margin.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iraq

USA influence in the middle east is getting less and less. Now Iraq will not let the soldiers who have been in Syria enter Iraq

(zerohedge)

“No Approval To Stay”: Iraq Rejects Pentagon Plan To Relocate US Troops From Syria

American forces withdrawing from Syria into western Iraq have not been issued permission to stay in the country, an official Iraqi government statement has warned, saying further only brief “transit” approval has been given.

US Defense Secretary Mark Esper days ago claimed the additional US forces currently pulling out of Syria, at nearly 1000, will join troops already stationed in Iraq for their anti-ISIS mission and “to help defend Iraq”.

“All U.S. forces that withdrew from Syria received approval to enter the Kurdistan Region so that they may be transported outside Iraq. There is no permission granted for these forces to stay inside Iraq,” the Iraqi military said according to Reuters.

 

US soldiers near the town of Tel Tamr, north Syria. Image source: AP

The surprise resistance from Baghdad officials comes amid growing popular anger at continued US presence and a movement underway in parliament to expel all remaining American troops, largely due to a spate of Israeli drone strikes over the past few months on Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary bases, mostly in and around Baghdad.

The between 700 and 1,000 US forces exiting Syria toward bases in western Iraq are expected to bolster the already more than 5,000 American forces stationed in the country.

Given this latest warning out of Baghdad, a senior Pentagon official noted to Reuters that the situation remains “fluid and plans could change”.

Meanwhile, the looming Tuesday night expiration of the ‘120-hour ceasefire’ deal which went into effect last Thursday could mean all hell is ready to break loose in northern Syrian once again, though sporadic fighting has remained in effect, with both sides accusing the other of already breaching its terms.

A more permanent ceasefire as part of the Pence-brokered plan is conditioned on all parties observing the temporary “pause” — which is hours away from expiring.

Turkey’s President Erdogan in new statements has vowed to restart the major Syria offensive “more strongly” if the US “breaks its promises”. This after on Tuesday he boasted the Turkish operation had wrested 160 settlements along the border from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Kurdish YPG militia are required to withdraw from a 120km long strip of border area to make way for a Turkey-administered ‘safe zone’ inside Syria.

Interestingly, on the final day of the US-brokered ceasefire Erdogan is in Sochi, Russia where he is meeting with Vladimir Putin to discuss Syria. Putin has positioned Russia as the final power broker in the region as Washington departs.

end
TURKEY/SYRIA/USA
Lira jumps on reports of a Turkish deal with Russia over the Northern Syrian border which provides a safe zone for the Kurds inside Syria. Putin cements his role as chief arbiter in Syria
(zerohedge)

Lira Jumps On Reports Of Turkish Deal With Russia Over Northern Syria “Safe Zone”

Update (1315ET):  Turkey’s Erdogan says deal reached with Russia for Kurdish fighters to move out of Syrian border area within 150 hours establishing a “safe zone” inside Syria.

As Haaretz reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that talks with his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan had yielded what he called momentous results for Syria.

Bloomberg TicToc

@tictoc

Erdogan and Putin agreed to establish a “safe zone” inside Syria, a senior Turkish official said shortly after the two leaders’ 6-hour-long meeting

Embedded video

Putin and Erdogan reportedly agreed during their meeting that the Turkish operation in Syria can continue up to 32 kilometers inside Syria’s border, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

The Turkish Lira jumped 1% on the headlines, erasing yesterday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, President Trump has authorized $4.5 million in direct support to the White Helmets, and Kurdish fighters have reportedly completed their pullout from a zone along the Syrian border as required under a U.S.-brokered cease-fire deal hours before it was set to expire Tuesday, U.S. and Kurdish official said.

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, just hours before the end of the 120-hour deadline of the ceasefire agreement negotiated between US and Turkey, President Putin hosted Turkey’s Erdogan in Sochi, reportedly with an aim to learn of Ankara’s plans in its northern Syria operation against the Kurds, and to capitalize on Russia’s position as main driver in the region in the wake of a US withdrawal.

This as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday that “some progress has certainly been made” ahead of the ceasefire’s expiration. “The President used America’s economic might, our economic power, to avoid a kinetic conflict with a NATO ally,” Pompeo said.

Putin and Erdogan reportedly met for over four hours behind closed doors, with only the personal translator for each present, in a meeting expected to be long and comprehensive.

 

Putin and Erdogan in their hours-long closed door meeting Tuesday in Sochi, via Russian Presidency

Erdogan is expected to seek Putin’s blessing on the Turkish administered ‘safe zone’ in northeast Syria, after also boasting the Turkish operation has already wrested some 160 settlements along the border from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Kurdish YPG militia are required to withdraw from a 120km long strip of border area to make way for a Turkey-administered ‘safe zone’ inside Syria, according to the US-Turkey brokered plan.

“If the promises made by the U.S. to our country are not kept, we will resume our offensive from where we left it, and this time with great determination,” Erdogan told reporters just before heading to Sochi Tuesday. And Putin over a week ago said in a state broadcast interview: “Syria must be free from other states’ military presence. And the territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic must be completely restored.”

Only Putin and Erdogan, with each’s translator, were in the room for the bilateral summit:

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

This is interesting:

Erdogan and Putin had tete-a-tete in Sochi with only presence of an Russian translator

Embedded video

We noted previously that with the Trump White House wiping its hands of Syria involvement, and now rapidly moving some 1,000 troops into western Iraq, Putin is poised for a ‘deal of the century’ that would cement Russia’s role as final mediator in the eight-year long Syria war.

The reunion of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with Assad, to the consternation of Washington hawks, has already been hailed as a great Moscow victory.

Erdogan is actually pushing for a proposed 300-mile-long safe zone; the deal negotiated with Vice President Pence in Ankara last Thursday delineates a 120-mile strip along the border. Putin is unlikely to agree to anything other than a very temporary Turkish-administered zone, if at all, given he’s been adamant that all sovereign Syrian territory is eventually returned to Damascus’ control.

The WSJ commented of Russia’s role in northeast Syria, and Erdogan’s desire for an extended zone of control:

Moscow’s commitment to securing the remaining three quarters will be essential because the Russian-backed army of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last week struck an agreement to work with the Kurdish militia. Taking advantage of the void created by departing U.S. troops, Mr. Assad’s soldiers have been deployed in several border towns held by the Kurds.

Meanwhile, perhaps to be expected, the mainstream media is already lamenting Washington effectively ceding all leverage to Moscow.

For example Business Insider on Tuesday decried that the “US is now left watching Syria’s fate being decided by two other nations: Turkey and Russia

6.Global Issues

Canada

Trudeau overcomes scandals to win his 2nd term but he has a minority government

(zeorhedge)

Trudeau Overcomes Scandal To Win 2nd Term As PM, But Fails To Secure Majority

Justin Trudeau has overcome a raft of scandals, ranging from the juvenile and relatively benign (the ‘blackface’ scandal that erupted last month after Time magazine published photos of Trudeau wearing brown face paint at a costume party in 2001), to the blatantly corrupt (he and his aids tried to impede the criminal prosecution of SNC Lavalin, an engineering firm based in Quebec), and won a second term as Canada’s prime minister.

The final results were released late Monday evening: Despite losing the national popular vote, Trudeau’s Liberal Party won 156 seats, giving them a clear plurality of the vote. However, Trudeau’s government will lose its outright majority, meaning that Trudeau will need to rely on votes from opposition parties to pass his agenda (the threshold for a majority in Canada’s House of Commons is 170).

The Liberals had 177 seats when Trudeau dissolved Parliament 40 days ago at the start of the official campaign season.

Courtesy of WSJ

Though he has established himself as an icon of liberal values and multiculturalism, Trudeau’s ostensible commitment to feminism and bolstering the rights of minorities was exposed as cynical political posturing by the series of scandals that marred the final year of his first term.

His party lost its lead in the polls during the final weeks of the election, as several images of a young Trudeau wearing blackface surfaced, leading the PM to embark on a national apology tour that featured this cringe-worthy moment where Trudeau tries to explain what he did and apologize to a group of kids (because “what kind of monster lies to a child?“).

Though Trudeau managed to prevail over his conservative rival Andrew Scheer, the enthusiasm that helped his Liberals retake the majority after a decade out of power back in 2015 was clearly lacking this time around. As one pollster told WSJ, Trudeau has lost the luster of progressive icon, and has instead become “just another politician.”

“Trudeau has become just another politician – and a flawed one at that,”said Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, a polling firm.

Ipsos found that during the final weeks of the campaign 57% of Canadians didn’t approve of the job Trudeau was doing.

To be sure, Trudeau pulled out all of the stops during his campaign. Sensing his old friend might be in trouble, former President Barack Obama made an unprecedented endorsement by saying he backed Trudeau for a second term.

Then again, winning back-to-back majorities is a relative rarity in Canadian politics. It hasn’t been done since the Liberal government of Prime Minister Jean Chrétien back in the 1990s.

When it comes to the market reaction on Tuesday, it should be relatively mild, according to Jonathan Rose, a professor of politics at Queens University in Ontario, who spoke with Reuters about the vote.

“Historically, the Liberals have been kind of a chameleon party. They’ve campaigned from left and governed from the right. They’ll moderate the way they govern for the next few years.”

“Markets like stability and minority governments are inherently less stable than majority governments, but Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are a known commodity and so it shouldn’t be disruptive. Right now they don’t need the Bloc Quebecois. That’s probably a relief for the Liberals.”

“The poor showing of the NDP and the huge showing of the Bloc Quebecois is a surprise. I also expected the Greens to do a little better. I think they (the Bloc) were expecting 20 seats and to have over 30 is amazing.”

After Trudeau’s victory was assured, President Trump tweeted his congratulations to the man who has sometimes been described as Trump’s ‘liberal foil’.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to @JustinTrudeau on a wonderful and hard fought victory. Canada is well served. I look forward to working with you toward the betterment of both of our countries!

During his victory speech, given half in English, half in French, Trudeau thanked his supporters, and insisted that he now had a clear mandate to continue with his Liberal Party’s program, adding that Canadian voters had rejected the “austerity” pushed by the Conservatives.

Watch Trudeau’s victory speech below:

END
Softbank, Japan/We Work
Softbank took over We Work in a DIP move. Shockingly Softbank gives former CEO Newman a massive handout of 1.7 billion dollars for stock that is basically worthless. I guess you can state that we are in a massive bubble
(zerohedge)

Neumann Steps Down From WeWork Board, Gets Massive Handout From Softbank

Confirming the headline rumors from yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reports that Softbank will take control of WeWork with Adam Neumann stepping down from the board.

However, the details around Neumann’s payoff were dramatically under-reported as the journal reports that Softbank will provide the former CEO with around $1.7 Billion as part of the deal (and extend a $500 million line of credit to the kabbalah follower).

zerohedge@zerohedge

How do you know it’s the biggest bubble in history? This slide from Softbank

View image on Twitter

Additionally, Neumann is expected to sell about $1 billion of stock to Softbank (and will receive a $185 million consulting fee from the Japanese tech giant).

A consulting fee for what? How to sell a dollar for 50c?

We wonder just how the 2,000 or so staff facing layoffs as soon as this deal is inked will feel about this…

end
Buchanan is arguing that democracy is a dying species and gives evidence aso th the various riots we have witnessing throughout the globe lately
(Pat Buchanan)

Buchanan: Is Democracy A Dying Species?

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org

What happens when democracy fails to deliver? What happens when people give up on democracy?

What happens when a majority or militant minority decide that the constitutional rights of free speech, free elections, peaceful assembly and petition are inadequate and take to the streets to force democracy to submit to their demands?

Our world may be about to find out…

Chile is the most stable and prosperous country in Latin America.

Yet when its capital, Santiago, recently raised subway fares by 5%, thousands poured into the streets. Rioting, looting, arson followed. The Metro system was utterly trashed. Police were assaulted. People died. The rioting spread to six other cities. Troops were called out.

President a Sebastian Pinera repealed the fare hike and declared a national emergency, stating, “Chile is at war against a powerful, implacable enemy who does not respect anything or anyone and is willing to use violence and crime without any limits.”

How does a democracy that has spawned within itself a powerful and implacable enemy deal with it?

Last week, tens of thousands of Lebanese of all faiths and political associations rioted in Beirut and Tripoli to demand the overthrow of the regime and the ouster of its president, speaker of parliament and Prime Minister Saad Hariri. All must go, the masses demand.

In Barcelona, Friday, half a million people surged into the streets in protest after the sentencing in Madrid of the secessionists who sought to bring about the independence of Catalonia from Spain in 2017.

In all of China, few enjoy the freedoms of the 7 million in Hong Kong. Yet, for five months, these fortunate and free Chinese, to protest a proposal that would have allowed Hong Kong residents to be extradited to China, stormed into the streets to defy the regime and denounce the conditions under which they live.

These protests have been marked by riots, vandalism, arson and clashes with police. “Hong Kong streets descended into chaos following an unauthorized pro-democracy rally Sunday,” writes the Associated Press. Protesters “set up roadblocks and torched businesses, and police responded with tear gas and a water cannon. Protesters tossed firebombs and took their anger out on shops with mainland Chinese ties.”

What are the Hong Kong residents denouncing and demanding?

They are protesting both present and future limitations on their freedom. The appearance of American flags in the protests suggests that what they seek is what the agitators behind the Boston Tea Party and the boys and men at Concord Bridge sought — independence, liberty and a severing of the ties to the mother country.

Yet, because the Communist regime of Xi Jinping could not survive such an amputation, the liberation of Hong Kong is not in the cards. The end to these months of protest will likely be frustration, futility and failure.

Perhaps it is that realization that explains the vehemence and violence. But the rage is also what kills the support they initially received.

In 1960s America, the first civil rights demonstrations attracted widespread sympathy. But the outburst of urban riots that followed in Harlem, Watts, Newark, Detroit and 100 cities after Martin Luther King’s assassination sent millions streaming to the banners of Gov. George Wallace in the campaigns of 1968 and 1972.

When the “yellow vest” protests broke out in 2018 in Paris, over a fuel tax, the demonstrators had the support of millions of Frenchmen.

But that support dissipated when protesters began smashing windows of boutique shops on the Champs-Elysee, assaulting police and desecrating monuments and memorials.

This reversion to violence, ransacking of stores and showering of police with bricks, bottles and debris, is costing the protesters much of the backing they enjoyed. In the trade-off between freedom and order, people will ultimately opt for order.

Yet, one wonders: Why are these outbursts of violent protests and rioting taking place in stable, free and prosperous societies?

Chile is the most stable and wealthy country in South America. Catalonia is the most prosperous part of Spain. Paris is hardly a hellhole of repression. And Hong Kong is the freest city of China.

If the beneficiaries of freedoms and democratic rights come to regard them as insufficient to produce the political, economic and social results they demand, what does that portend for democracy’s future?

For, despite the looting, arson and attacks on cops in Hong Kong, Xi Jinping is not going to order his satraps to yield to popular demands for autonomy or independence. Nor is Madrid going to accept the loss of Barcelona and secession of Catalonia. Nor is the conservative Chilean government going to yield to the street rebels and revolutionaries. Nor is Paris going to back down to the “yellow vests.”

Yet, one wonders: If the “end of history” and worldwide triumph of democratic capitalism thesis has, as most agree, been disproven, is it possible that the Age of Democracy is itself a passing phase in the history of the West and the world?

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Saudi Arabia is again trying to get its IPO formulated..and yes it is mission impossible

(zerohedge)

Saudi’s Aramco IPO Is Mission Impossible

Once again reports are out that Saudi Aramco is said to be pushing its mammoth IPO top completed by the end of this year (reportedly relying more on Saudi and MidEast regional investors).

The kickoff, originally scheduled for Oct. 20, was delayed after Aramco got mixed feedback from international investors. Bloomberg reports that Aramco now plans to press on with the listing plans by relying more on investors from Saudi Arabia and other parts of the Middle East to buy its shares, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private.

But, as S&P Global Platts Insight blog notes, Saudi Aramco’s IPO looks doomed to failure as it targets a $2 trillion flotation. Tepid oil prices, the fraught politics of the Middle East and the demonization of fossil fuel producers in response to climate change fears have all made the initial public offering (IPO) a mission impossible.

The kingdom had looked poised to list up to 2% of its shares on its domestic market within weeks. But the long-delayed partial privatization of the world’s largest state-owned oil company now faces another indefinite postponement after the devastating attacks last month on some of its most important facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.

Overnight, the attacks shut down 5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabia’s oil production, roughly equivalent to 6% of global supply. A catastrophic spike in oil prices was only narrowly avoided because of the kingdom’s own emergency stockpiles, and its swift response in patching up the damage and restoring output in record time. But this has come at a high price to Aramco, which potential investors will want to see accounted for before paying any kind of premium for its shares in an IPO.

It is a level of detail which the normally secretive Aramco is probably uncomfortable to reveal. In August, Aramco for the first time gave potential investors a glimpse of its first-half earnings. Net income of almost $50 billion made it comfortably the world’s most profitable company. However, the cost of repairs at Abqaiq and the inconvenience caused by the attacks will be an ugly blemish on its otherwise pristine balance sheet.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s decision to beef up the American military presence in Saudi Arabia to help protect its oil, the idea of investing in Aramco has become a much risker proposition following the attacks. The Abqaiq episode is the latest in a spate of violent incidents that have targeted oil tankers, refineries and export pipelines in the region. Blamed on either rebels from Yemen or, more worryingly, Iran, the attacks have highlighted Aramco’s vulnerability to the combustible Middle East and concerns that investors will be left paying the bill for any repairs in the future.

Oil price adds to problems

Oil prices are also making it harder for Aramco’s bankers to deliver the target $2 trillion valuation set by the kingdom’s powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al-Saud. The heir to the Saudi throne wants to raise at least $100 billion from the sale of up to a 5% stake in the company to fund his Vision 2030 economic development plans, which include building a giant robotic city called NEOM on the kingdom’s Red Sea coast. Few experts believe this lofty valuation is possible with crude trading at around $60 per barrel.

Three years after he first announced the idea of listing shares in Aramco, and growing impatient because of repeated delays, the crown prince replaced the country’s oil minister last month with his brother, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. However, negative events have again overtaken the IPOs prospects.

Click to enlarge

Oil markets aren’t helping. Last month, the influential US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its outlook for oil demand growth to 890,000 barrels per day for 2019. It’s the first time oil market growth will have fallen below 1 million barrels per day since 2011. The EIA has cut its initial forecast of 1.5 million barrels per day of demand growth this year for seven months in a row as trade disputes and a slowdown in global trade weigh on sentiment.

Some international fund managers who have recently visited Aramco doubt the company would choose the current economic climate to list shares and would rather delay the offering until oil prices rebound, even though this may take years to happen.

However, this strategy would also carry risks as international investors come under increasing pressure to either divest existing holdings in fossil fuel producers like Aramco, or avoid the sector altogether.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is among a growing list of policymakers pushing for financial institutions to make mandatory disclosures of climate change risk and carbon emissions. More forecasters are also predicting a peak in global oil demand being reached over the next decade by 2030, which makes Aramco a less attractive proposition.

In response, Aramco may have to offer investors even bigger returns. Last month, the company revealed it would pay $75 billion in dividends next year and prioritize the interests of private investors going forward should its performance fall short. However, this still may not be enough to lure investors away from the sector’s bellwether international oil companies such as BP, Exxon Mobil and Shell.

A highly-paid army of bankers, financial advisers, consultants and public relations flacks drafted into the kingdom have once again failed to deliver the Aramco IPO on schedule. Investors are losing patience and interest.

 end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1137 DOWN .0015 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.59 DOWN 0.014 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2952   DOWN   0.0019  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3100 UP .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 18 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1137 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.76 POINTS OR 0.50% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 60.52 POINTS OR 0.23%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,31%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 60.52 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.76 POINTS OR .50%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 31% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 56.22  POINTS OR 0.25%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1486.50

silver:$17.62-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.78% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.28 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.41 UP 8 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.21% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.13%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.26%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.93  DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 67 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.37% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.30% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1144  DOWN     .0008 or 8 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.55 DOWN .056 OR YEN UP 6  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2944 down .0027 POUND down 27  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 4 basis points to 1.3084

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0769    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0749  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8092 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.79 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.27 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.36 UP 3  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 50.95  0.71%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 6.73 POINTS OR .05%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 9.34 POINTS 0.17%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 20,20 POINTS or 0.21%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 8.89 POINTS OR 0.04%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.28 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.81 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.59  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.37 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.16//

 

 

BRENT :  59.65

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.77  DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.26..DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1130 ( DOWN 21   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.47 DOWN .137 (YEN UP 14 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.48 UP 15 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2895 DOWN 76  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.80072

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.75   UP 0.01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 1 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3098 DOWN 11 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0769  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0769 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.38%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 39.54 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 58.69 POINTS OR 0.72%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.53 CLOSED UP .51

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.934%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Sink On Momo Meltdown But Biogen & Boeing Bounce

So close and yet so far – UK parliamentarians voted in favor of Johnson’s deal but rejected his shortened timeline… running away from making any actual decision…

China stocks surged into the close of the afternoon session to end higher on the week (led by Small-cap/tech)

 

European stock were lower on the day with UK’s FTSE weakest (DAX rallied back to almost unchanged on the day)…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed bag in US equities today with tech wrecked by NFLX and FB weakness (among others) while a Boeing short-squeeze bounce sent Trannies surging… S&P and Dow ended red…

 

Facebook was hit on State AGs looking to break up the social media entity (and suggestions that Libra will be delayed)…

Netflix extended its post-earnings spike losses as Verizon announced it would give Disney+ away for free…

Biogen exploded higher as the Alzheimer’s drug they thought was done, miraculously proved efficacious… (BUT… *BIOGEN ALZ DRUG HAS 0% CHANCE OF WINNING APPROVAL:RAYMOND JAMES)

Source: Bloomberg

Another major short-squeeze lifted Trannies more than Small Caps for a change…

Source: Bloomberg

Quants faced some chaos today as momo was hit hard…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields fell on the day, with 30Y almost back to unch on the week as the curve flattened…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields erased all of yesterday’s rise…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar rallied for the first time in 6 days…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable was very volatile intraday as various Brexit votes came and went…

Source: Bloomberg

Turkish Lira surged on Erdogan-Putin deal headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were flat to modestly lower on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil surged on the day and gold managed small gains as copper and silver trod water…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was up on reports that OPEC+ may discuss extending, deepening production cuts when they meet in December

Finally, US macro data continues to disappoint after Q3’s “use it or lose it” panic…

Source: Bloomberg

And Smart money is signaling notable weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

As promised trouble in the repo market as again it is oversubscribed. If you think it is bad now wait until Oct 31 when the Government’s needs increase dramatically at that day.  The Government has a true deficit of 1.2 trillion and thus need on average 100 billion dollars of funding every month. That is sucking up all the cash and that is why we have global shortage

(zerohedge)

Dollar Liquidity Turmoil Returns With First Oversubscribed Term Repo In A Month

This was not supposed to happen.

After the Fed rolled out the big artillery in response to the sharp, sudden mid-September funding squeeze (which we now know had virtually nothing to do with last month’s tax payments or other one-time events such as the Treasury’s cash rebuild), including the return of both overnight and term repo operations, and culminated with the Fed’s relaunching of QE which would be used to permanently increase the balance sheet with $60BN in T-Bills every month in order to replenish reserves (because we live in a bizarro world where $1.4 trillion in bank cash is not enough for the smooth functioning of bank plumbing), moments ago we got the latest indication that the dollar funding shortage is again getting worse – despite the market having priced in the Fed’s rollout of the “kitchen sink” to ease funding conditions – when the Fed announced that it had its first oversubscribed Term Repo operation since the funding crisis erupted in September.

Specifically, while the Fed’s 2-week term repo operation was capped at $35 billion as has been the case for the past week, dealers submitted $52.2BN worth of securities ($39.9BN in TSYs, $12.3BN in MBS)…

 

… making today’s term operation 1.5x oversubscribed, which was the first overallotted operation since the second term repo at the start of the funding crisis on Sept 26.

 

Needless to say, if the funding shortage was getting better, this operation would not be oversubscribed. The only possible explanation, is someone really needed to lock in cash for Halloween (the maturity of the op is on Nov 5) which is when a “No Deal” Brexit may go live, and as a result one or more banks are bracing for the worst.

Meanwhile, tensions weren’t evident only in term repo, because today’s overnight G/C repo operation which concluded minutes after the term operation, also showed an increased uptake, with $64.9BN in securities submitted, up from $58.15BN yesterday, if still just over $10BN shy from hitting the operation’s $75BN ceiling.

 

At the current rate of market tightening, we expect an overnight repo to be oversubscribed in the next few days.

 

And now we await today’s T-Bill Pomo result for the final proof of funding deterioration, as we expect today’s operation will be the most oversubscribed yet confirming that dealers are scrambling to convert their “safe” assets into dollars as fast as possible.

end

Liz Warren asks Mnuchin why JPmorgan caused the repo turmoil which in turn forced the Fed into launching QE4 (POMO)

Liz Warren Wants To Know If JPMorgan Caused Repo Turmoil To Force Fed Into Launching QE

As we reported earlier today, the turmoil in the dollar funding markets has returned, with the Fed’s term repo (which covers the Oct 31 “no deal” Brexit date) oversubscribed for the first time since the repo crisis started in mid-September…

… while the overnight repo operation saw increased usage, bringing today’s total injection to $99.9 billion.

And while market participants, who erroneously believed the repo flare up was a one-time event driven by some spurious tax payments in mid-September, are scratching their heads to explain why the dollar funding shortage refuses to abate, today none other than frontrunning Democratic presidential candidate, Elizabeth Warren, sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, in which she said she was “seeking clarity” on why the Fed’s crisis-era actions “were necessary,” while questioning the “the implications of the cause of the spikes.”

In her letter, Warren correctly notes that neither September’s tax payment deadlines, nor the Treasury auction settlements – which many claimed catalyzed the surge in the overnight repo rate from 2% to 10%, were a surprise; it also wasn’t a surprise that the Fed’s reserve shrinkage, i.e. Quantitative Tightening, which were on “autopilot” as recently as last December, surprised Wall Street professionals and were not “the type of unforeseeable circumstance that would have rattled markets so suddenly.”

Instead, what Warren – who very well may be president of the US in just over a year’s time – indirectly suggests, and which we thoroughly agree with, is that one bank – which on October 2 we disclosed was JPMorgan – deliberately yanked cash from money markets in order to “suddenly” tighten financial conditions, in the process causing a funding crisis and and sparking the Sept 16 repocalypse (which “coincidentally” took place on the 11th anniversary of the Lehman collapse). This is what Warren said:

I am also concerned that, “Big U.S. banks are using the recent chaos in short-term funding markets as an opportunity to pressure the Federal Reserve to ease liquidity requirements they have long despised,” and that the FSOC might support these efforts. These rules were designed to ensure that banks have enough cash on hand to meet their obligations in the event of another market crash.”

And the punchline: “Banks are reporting profits at record levels, and it would be painfully ironic if unexplained chaos in a small corner of the banking market became an excuse to further loosen rules that protect the economy from these types of risks.”

Warren is almost right: where she is wrong is that banks could care less about liquidity requirements. What they do want, however, is for liquidity to be greater; much, much greater and that’s precisely what they achieved as a result of last month’s repo crunch. After all, less than a month later, the Fed shocked markets by announcing it was launching $60BN in T-Bill purchases per month, just the thing the US financial system ordered, in the process expanding the Fed’s balance sheet by over $200BN in just 4 weeks.

Just don’t call it QE4.

As a result, Warren had 3 questions for Mnuchin:

  1. What are the underlying causes of the spike in borrowing rates for overnight repurchase agreements?
  2. Has FSOC learned why the Fed announced on Oct. 11 that overnight operations meant to keep the calm would be extended at least through January of next year?
  3. How will FSOC and Treasury use data on centrally cleared repo transactions to gain a further understanding of the market? Is further information needed to sufficiently monitor the short-term lending market?

And since we would like to assist Warren get to the bottom of this issue, we will help her ask the 4th, missing, question which she almost does, but is missing two key aspects: the culprit and the motive.

Here’s what happened: starting in early September, JPMorgan’s government-only money-market fund started pulling money out of overnight markets, in this case by yanking short-term Bills and pushing the fund’s Weighted Average Maturity sharply higher, with WAM peaking on Sept 13 just one day before all hell broke loose in Repo as overnight repo rates exploded as dealers suddenly found themselves without access to liquidity. This is shown in the following chart, courtesy of Monday Morning Macro.

 

Source: Monday Morning Macro

The rest is, of course, history: first the Fed launched overnight repo, then term repo, and just days later, Powell announced he would bring back POMO (i.e., “Not QE4“).

And while we appreciate Warren’s line of inquiry into what caused the September repo spike, we already know the answer. As such, the real question Warren should be asking is “did JPMorgan intentionally collapse liquidity in money and funding markets, setting off a chain reaction that culminated with the Fed resuming QE4 less than a month later?”

We eagerly look forward to Mnuchin’s answer.

Warren’s full letter can be read below (pdf link).

END
Peter Schiff gives a terrific explanation on the Repo market.  He compares the market to a Roach Motel.  Once you enter, you cannot leave
(Peter Schiff)

Peter Schiff: QE Is A Monetary Roach Motel

Authored by Peter Schiff via SchiffGold.com,

This Is Not a Printing Press! (Or Is It?)

Rene Magritte’s 1929 painting “The Treachery of Images,” depicts a tobacco pipe with a caption that reads “Ceci n’est pas une pipe,” (French for “This is not a pipe”). Everyone who has taken a course in modern art knows that Magritte’s exercise in contradiction was meant to draw a distinction between a real thing and a representation of that thing.

Perhaps we should send Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell a beret and an easel as he is attempting a similarly surrealistic take on monetary policy.

On Oct. 8, the chairman announced a new, as yet unnamed, Fed program through which the bank will now buy regular amounts of short-term U.S. government debt. Seeking to counter the rumblings that a new form of quantitative easing would be seen as an admission that the economy may be in trouble, Chairman Powell asserted during the annual meeting of NABE on October 8, “This is not QE. In no sense is this QE.”

In other words, “Ceci n’est pas QE.”

The New York Fed put some meat on the bone by detailing that the program will buy $60 billion per month of Treasury Bills, at least through the second quarter of next year. (R. Miller & C. Condon, Bloomberg) In addition, at least through January 2020, the Fed will continue with $75 billion in overnight repurchases and $35 billion in term repurchases twice per week. (N. Timiraos & P. Kiernan, Dow Jones Newswire) As a result, it is estimated that the Fed’s balance sheet will reach roughly $4.2-$4.3 trillion sometime in Q2 2020. Of course, since the actual size of the purchases required to keep interest rates from rising could be much larger, the Fed’s balance sheet could be significantly larger as well.

The Fed even put out a Frequently Asked Questions page last week that among other things highlighted how the current moves differ from the original version of QE in 2008. It stresses that whereas the old version of QE was designed to spur economic growth in a sluggish economy, the current moves are simply designed to patch leaky financial pipes that are very much removed from the real economy. A statement on the FAQ page reads, “These operations have no material implications for the stance of monetary policy,” and should not have “any meaningful effects” on household and business spending or the overall level of economic activity. Instead, the Fed just wants to make sure there is enough cash sloshing around the system — because lately there hasn’t been.

But as the reliable American folk wisdom states: if something “looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.” In this case, Powell can call the new Fed program anything he wants, but it certainly quacks like QE.

As it was originally defined just a few short years ago, QE was the attempt by central banks to buy and hold government debt in an effort to pull down interest rates and inject liquidity into stressed financial markets. Okay, check and check. The only difference between then and now is that in 2008-2014 the Fed targeted the longer-dated end of the bond market, and this time it is targeting the shorter end…at least for now. But bond maturity length never figured much into the definition anyway, so that doesn’t really seem to matter.

Another distinction that Powell makes is that the current program is more modest in scope than the full-blown QE programs of 2009-2014, which added more than $4 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet, according to data from the St. Louis Fed, (the vast majority of which it still holds to this day). And while it’s true that the $180 billion or so that the Fed has pumped into the markets over the last month is just a spit in the bucket compared to what it had amassed in the early part of this decade, please remember that the Fed has just started…give it time! $180 billion in one month is actually a much faster pace than what was seen at the height of the QE era (which topped out at $85 billion per month).

Should anyone really expect that the new program will end in the middle of next year as the Fed now suggests? It has never fully ended any of its prior stimulus plans, why would this one be any different? In fact, thanks to the Fed, the U.S. economy will be even more heavily indebted in eight months than it is now. So the Fed will be forced to buy even more debt to keep interest rates from rising in an economy even more vulnerable to higher rates than it is today. Like any drug habit, the more drugs you consume today, the more you will have to consume tomorrow to achieve the desired effect.

If we can agree that it makes no difference what we call the program, it is nevertheless important to focus on the differences between QE then and QE now. Back in 2009, the program was all about reliquifying the long bond market that had been decimated by billions of dollars of worthless subprime bonds. But a decade later, the home mortgage market is relatively calm, at least for now. Long-term interest rates are already rock bottom, and mortgage delinquencies are not currently causing panic in the banking system. Today, problems are popping up in a very different place, the very short-end of the bond market, particularly in the overnight “repos” where banks lend spare cash to one another on a very short-term basis.

As it turns out, the Fed’s $50 billion per month of bond sales, which began early in 2018 and ended in the second quarter of this year, drained liquidity from the overnight market at the same time increased government borrowing was sucking up all available cash. Last year’s tax cuts, combined with increased Federal spending, pushed this year’s deficit past $1 trillion for the first time since 2012. (G. Heeb, Markets Insider, 9/14/19) Deficits are currently expected to stay north of $1 trillion per year for the foreseeable future. That means more new government bonds than expected are likely to hit the market.

Contrary to his campaign promise, President Trump has actually shortened the maturity of the national debt. (US Govt. Finance: Debt, Yardeni Research, Inc., 10/10/19) Shorter maturities mean that more debt will need to be refinanced each month. Banks have dutifully bought those bonds, as they are often required to do by capitalization laws that were put in place since the Crisis of 2008. But this has not left enough cash to keep the overnight market well-lubricated.

This problem erupted into broad daylight just a few weeks ago, when yields on overnight bonds skyrocketed to 10% or more. Rates that high in an overlooked, but vital, part of the financial system could have caused the economy to seize up, so the Fed intervened with all guns blazing. It bought approximately $53 billion of overnight loans in just the first day of the crisis.

At that point, most market observers believed that the problem was caused by a confluence of temporary events that would last just one day, or maybe a week. But those hopes quickly faded, and we have been left with a crisis that now appears permanent. In light of this, it is not surprising that the Fed expanded its intervention into the short-end of the Treasury market. But don’t expect the problems to end there. The debt crisis is like a cancer that I believe will continue to spread. The Fed is out of miracle cures. In fact, it never had any.

This all reminds me of when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first introduced the QE program in 2009, stressing that that it did not constitute “debt monetization” (the situation where a government buys its own debt) because QE was “temporary” and the bonds that the Fed was buying in an emergency would be sold back to the market once the crisis abated. (Testimony before U.S. House Budget Committee, 6/3/09) At the time, I predicted, when virtually no one else on Wall Street did, that the Fed would never be able to sell those assets back into the market. It turns out, the Fed was only able to sell less than 25% of what it had bought before it encountered a crisis that forced it to scrap the whole process.

As I have said many, many times, quantitative easing is a monetary Roach Motel: Once central bankers check-in, they can never check out. For now, Chairman Powell is occupying a different room in this particular motel than had his predecessors. But rest assured, not only will he occupy that room, but I expect he will also be expanding into many more. None of the rooms will have a good view and all will have dirty linen.

The real question is when investors will get wind of the stench? The Fed has been successful in fooling the markets regarding the temporary nature of zero-percent interest rates, the efficacy of QE, and its ability to normalize rates and shrink its balance sheet. Had the markets not been fooled, the program would have produced a much different result. Its “success” was purely a function of the belief that the policy was temporary and reversible. The realization that it is neither could cause a flight from the dollar and Treasuries that could usher in a financial crisis far worse than what was experienced in 2008.

The banks have full knowledge that Powell will deliver POMO for the next 6 to 12 months equal to around 700 billion dollars.  Yet the banks are lining up at a wicket in great numbers as today\s POMO was 550% oversubscribed.  Seems that the banks are paying attention to Lee Adler that the bombshell will hit on Oct 31.
(zerohedge)

As Liquidity Evaporates, Fed’s Third Bill POMO Is 5.5 Oversubscribed, Most Yet

Earlier this morning, when discussing today’s oversubscribed term repo and latest funding squeeze, we previewed today’s T-Bill POMO saying,  “and now we await today’s T-Bill Pomo result for the final proof of funding deterioration, as we expect today’s operation will be the most oversubscribed yet, confirming that dealers are scrambling to convert their “safe” assets into dollars as fast as possible.”

Less than two hours, that’s precisely what happened, when the Fed announced that in its third $7.5 Billion Treasury Bill POMO, the Fed received a whopping $41.472 billion in “liquidity” requests, i.e. Dealers submitted $41.5BN in bids for the maximum $7.5BN in Fed “Reserve Management” (note: not QE) purchases.

As such, the operation was 5.5x oversubscribed, a notable increase from the first two POMOs conducted last week, when operations were 4.3x and 4.8x oversubscribed.

While we already predicted the punchline earlier, here it is again: demand for the Fed’s permanent liquidity injection is increasing with every operation, even as overnight repo saw a modest increase in dealer interest while term repo was oversubscribed for the first time in 4 weeks.

As such the question we have been asking for the past month – and one which Elizabeth Warren should also consider asking of Steven Mnuchin – remains: why are banks still so desperate for liquidity even though the Fed has now made clear the Fed’s balance sheet will expand to accommodate all reserve needsand why do they so stubbornly refuse to approach the interbank market for their funding needs? In short, what do they know about the banking system that we don’t?

END

Despite the low mortgage rates, existing home sales tumble again in Sept.

(zerohedge)

Existing Home Sales Tumble In September, Despite Low Mortgage Rates

After August’s rebound across the housing market – as mortgage rates tumbled – September was expected to see some slowdown but existing home sales fell significantly (dropping 2.2% MoM against expectations of a 0.7% drop).

Existing Home Sales SAAR fell from 5.50mm to 5.38mm in September…

Source: Bloomberg

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said that despite historically low mortgage rates, sales have not commensurately increased, in part due to a low level of new housing options.

“We must continue to beat the drum for more inventory,” said Yun, who has called for additional home construction for over a year.

Home prices are rising too rapidly because of the housing shortage, and this lack of inventory is preventing home sales growth potential.”

Regional breakdown:

  • September existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 2.8% to an annual rate of 690,000, a 1.5% rise from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $301,100, up 5.2% from September 2018.
  • In the Midwest, existing-home sales dropped 3.1% to an annual rate of 1.27 million, which is nearly equal to August 2018. The median price in the Midwest was $213,500, a 7.2% jump from a year ago.
  • Existing-home sales in the South decreased 2.1% to an annual rate of 2.28 million in September, up 6.0% from a year ago. The median price in the South was $237,300, up 6.3% from one year ago.
  • Existing-home sales in the West declined 0.9% to an annual rate of 1.14 million in September, 5.6% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $403,600, up 4.5% from September 2018.

More problematically, existing home sales slipped despite low mortgage rates…

Source: Bloomberg

As price once again becomes an issue.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $272,100, up 5.9% from September 2018 ($256,900), as prices rose in all regions. September’s price increase marks 91 straight months of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of September sat at 1.83 million, approximately equal to the amount of existing-homes available for sale in August, but a 2.7% decrease from 1.88 million one year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.0 months in August and down from the 4.4-month figure recorded in September 2018.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

It seems that we have another massive scandal in the making: rating agencies are complicit in not downgrading companies that ought to be downgraded and this is especially in the lowest grade possible  BBB-

(zerohedge)

Are The Rating Agencies Complicit In Another Massive Scandal: A WSJ Investigation Leads To Shocking Questions

Over the past two years, a key event many bears have cited as a potential catalyst for the next market crash, is the systematic downgrade of billions of lowest-rated investment grade bonds to junk as a result of debt leverage creeping ever high, coupled with the inevitable slowdown of the economy, which would lead to an avalanche of “fallen angels” – newly downgraded junk bonds which institutional managers have to sell as a result of limitations on their mandate, in the process sending prices across the corporate sector sharply lower.

As we discussed in July, the scope of this potential problem is massive, with the the lowest-rated, BBB sector now nearly 60% of all investment grade bonds, and more than double the size of the entire junk bond market in the US, and 3.4x bigger than the European junk bond universe.

Yet after waiting patiently for years for the inevitable downgrade avalanche which would unleash a zombie army of fallen angels and potentially spark the next crash, with the occasional exception of a few notable downgrades such as PG&E and Ford, this wholesale event has failed to materialize so far, something which the bulls have frequently paraded as an indication that the economy is far stronger than the bears suggest.

But is it? And instead of the economy being stronger, are we just reliving the past where rating agencies pretended everything was ok until the very end, only to admit they were wrong all along, and then slash their rating retrospectively, too late however as the next financial crisis is already raging.

Well, according to a must-read expose by the WSJ, it appears that we are indeed doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past, because as the Journal’s Gunjan Banerji and Cezary Podkul observe, what was supposed to be a 2015 downgrade has dragged on for over 4 years… while the rating agencies appear to be purposefully looking elsewhere.

To wit:

In August, bond-ratings firms Moody’s and S&P Global predicted that Newell Brands would soon reduce its heavy debt load, allowing it to keep its coveted investment-grade bond rating.

They made the same prediction in 2018. And in 2017. And in 2016. And in 2015, when the company announced a big merger that quadrupled its debt. Yet bond ratings for the maker of Rubbermaid containers and Sharpie markers haven’t budged.

Those asking “why not” are correct, and not just because the rating agencies appear to be delaying a moment of reckoning, clearly aware of the shitstorm they would trigger if they downgraded every soon to be “fallen angel” – just like in 2007 with their ridiculous CDO assessments, the raters have made glaring mistakes, which when correct, have still failed to prompt the agencies into action:

When S&P and Moody’s made their upbeat projections in 2018, they made an error that understated Newell’s indebtedness, according to a Wall Street Journal review of the rating firms’ calculations. They have since fixed their numbers, but still rate Newell investment-grade. Investors have been less forgiving, selling off the bonds and driving up their yield.

The raters’ response: “Moody’s and S&P didn’t dispute revising their calculations, but said the changes didn’t affect their ratings.

Naturally, it’s not just Newell: amid an epic corporate borrowing spree that sent total non-financial corporate debt to a record $10 trillion…

… sending it to the highest percentage of GDP on record…

… ratings firms have given leeway to other giant borrowers like Kraft Heinz, Campbell, and of course, IBM, which recently almost doubled its debt load to fund the purchase of Red Hat, allowing their balance sheets to swell.

“It’s pretty eye-popping if you’ve been doing this for 20-plus years, to see how much more leverage a number of these companies can incur with the same credit rating,” said Greg Haendel, a portfolio manager at Tortoise in Los Angeles overseeing about $1 billion in corporate bonds. “There’s definitely some ratings inflation.”

To veterans it may be “eye-popping” but to everyone else, it’s a surprise, so here it is visualized: the average Investment Grade company has seen its net leverage rise from roughly 2x to over 3x in the past decade, while leverage for the average BBB name has risen by more than 50% from just over 2x to 3.3x in the same time period.

The relentless increase in leverage should not come as a surprise: years of near-zero interest rates (or negative in the case of Europe) have fueled a record boom in borrowing, driving debt owed by U.S. companies (ex banks) to nearly $10 trillion—up about 60% from pre-crisis levels, with a majority of the proceeds then used by companies to repurchase their own stock and lift the company stock price to likewise nosebleed levels. It is certainly not a surprise then, that leverage hit an all time high in Q2 of this year, according to JPMorgan.

The record debt increase has sparked one of “the most divisive debates on Wall Street” as the WSJ puts it: Will higher debt loads cause big losses when the economy turns? Or have low interest rates made the borrowing more manageable? And, as noted above, will the sudden collapse of “fallen angels” when rating agencies can no longer kick the can, unleash the next financial crisis?

In their own defense, Moody’s and S&P say their ratings are “accurate” because companies like Newell have solid, global brands and generate sufficient cash flow to pay off the bonds. “We take rating actions where appropriate in line with our methodologies,” said Tom Mowat, analytical manager at S&P Global Ratings. The ratings firms also say their grades have accurately predicted defaults, which is their main purpose.

What Mowat is really saying, is that since central banks have forced bond investors into anything that offers even a modest yield, the fact that yields on the companies in question have fallen is confirmation the rating agency is right.

That, of course, is bullshit: what is really happening is unprecedented herding of the investing community, and even though there is a tsunami of capital chasing even the most modest return, events such as PG&E still happen which reprice bonds from par to a fraction of their value overnight as the folly of “investment grade” fundamentals is laid bare for all to see.

There is another, unspoken reason why S&P and Moody’s have dreaded downgrading names such Newell, Kraft and Campbell Soup, all of which are triple-B rated, the lowest category for bonds considered investment-grade, which is what countless vanilla funds are only allowed to hold: a mass downgrade to high yield, or junk, would result in forced liquidation and an unprecedented repricing of the junk bond market, not to mention raising the newly downgraded companies’ borrowing costs.

Amid the debt issuance spree of the past decade, the triple-B rating has exploded in the last decade, with debt outstanding more than tripling to $3.7 trillion, more than double the size of the entire US junk bond universe. Should a substantial fraction of these companies be downgraded, it would result in an unprecedented shockwave. These days, more than 50% of all investment-grade bonds are rated triple-B, up from 38% in September 2009.

To be sure, some investors still remember what happened when they put their trust in rating agencies, and despite their BBB-rating, over $100 billion worth of bonds already trade with yields like junk despite their triple-B-minus ratings, despite the flood of cash into investment-grade debt.

Which brings us to the real reason why rating agencies are loath to downgrade most of these “pre-fallen angles” to their true, junk status: such a move would validate what is arguably one of the most bearish catalyst of the past few years, potentially triggering the next market crash. Which, of course, makes the raters even more unwilling to rate these credits at fair value, because the longer they delay admitting reality, the greater the price to pay will be in the end. Which leaves them paralyzed, and pretending that a 3.5x leverage now for a BBB-rated company is the same as a 2.0x levereage at the start of the decade.

Meanwhile, investors and analysts have told the SEC that they are concerned about the buildup of triple-B debt. Here are some examples from the WSJ:

Last October, Adam Richmond, Morgan Stanley’s then head of U.S. credit strategy, testified at an SEC hearing that if leverage were the sole criteria for ratings, many triple-B rated companies wouldn’t qualify for such high grades. He warned that “downgrade activity could be heavy” once the economy inevitably weakens. The firm’s analysts wrote in a September report that investment-grade companies “have not de-levered significantly and are still getting credit for assumed earnings growth, integration of acquisitions, and other ‘plans’ to delever.”

JPMorgan raised similar concerns in a report it submitted to a bond-investor advisory committee at the SEC. In February, the committee created a new group to examine credit ratings and potentially recommend new regulations to boost oversight of the industry, according to people familiar with the group

So far, regulators like rating agencies, have decided to simply stick their head in the sand, and hope that this, too, shall pass. It won’t.

Meanwhile, as Moody’s and S&P desperately scramble to defend their reputation before their criminal inactivity is seen as the catalyst for the next crash, arguing that cash flow has actually improved in recent year (spoiler alert: it hasn’t), even the IMF’s new head, Kristalina Georgieva, said last month that $19 trillion of corporate debt would be at risk of default, nearly 40% of total debt in eight major economies. “This is above the levels seen during the financial crisis,” she said.

But wait, it gets better. Instead of downgrading companies on the cusp of being junk-rated, last year S&P actually upgraded Kraft, one of the biggest corporate borrowers, saying cost savings would help push leverage below four times annual earnings by late 2019. Then, in June, following the company’s humiliating earnings restatement which embarrassed even crony capitalism market wizard, Warren Buffett, S&P had no choice but to downgrade Kraft … but it still kept Kraft at the lowest rung of investment-grade, giving it another two years to meet the target. In September, S&P estimated leverage was in the “high-4x area.” Since then, Kraft’s leverage has risen even more.

“How long do you give management the benefit of the doubt?” said Lon Erickson, a portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, who oversees $7 billion in corporate debt, including some Kraft bonds.

Here we’ll paraphrase Lon, and ask: how long will this Kabuki farce, in which everyone knows that the rating agencies are desperate not to be blamed for the next crisis – for not doing their job again – and thus will never downgrade trillions in BBB-rated bonds to junk, continue?

Apparently the answer is “for a long time.” Another example:wWhen Keurig Green Mountain merged with Dr Pepper Snapple Group in 2018, Moody’s said it could downgrade the combined company if leverage didn’t fall to about four times earnings by January 2020. This year, Moody’s said four times annual earnings by the end of 2020 was fine.

“If it’s a strike, it’s a strike. If it’s a ball, it’s a ball,” said Joe Pimbley, a former Moody’s analyst and principal of Maxwell Consulting. “Call it as you see it.”

If only his former co-workers would do that. Instead, they are doing what they did in the run up to the last financial crisis – lying.

The ratings firms say they question companies’ debt reduction plans. “By nature we are a pretty skeptical bunch. We like to poke holes in stories,” said Peter Abdill, who oversees Moody’s ratings for consumer products companies.

No, you are not a skeptical bunch. You are a bunch of pathological liars and hoping that by the time the system comes crashing down, you will have quit long ago, making your criminal inactivity someone else’s problem. Meanwhile, the rating agencies are engaging in what appears to be borderline criminal behavior, only when pressed, they will simply say “it was a mistake.” Take the example of Newell:

One company that has been given significant leeway by ratings firms is consumer goods giant Newell Brands, which makes everything from Elmer’s glue to Yankee Candles. While food companies like Kraft and Campbell produce steady earnings in good and bad economies, Newell is more cyclical, meaning it is more likely to run into trouble during a downturn. When Newell said it would acquire rival Jarden Corp. for about $20 billion in December 2015, S&P and Moody’s analysts said Newell could keep its low investment-grade rating because debt would fall from more than five times projected earnings to under four times by December 2017.

Newell had tens of millions of dollars riding on that decision. A provision tucked into an $8 billion acquisition bond sale in March 2016 said Newell would owe its investors as much as $160 million more in annual interest costs if it got downgraded into junk territory.

As an aside, the provision highlights the conflict faced by the ratings firms. While investors use rating firms’ research, it is the companies that issue bonds who pay for the ratings. And while Moody’s and S&P say they don’t allow the conflict, or bond provisions like these, to influence their rating decisions, it’s beyond obvious that there is no objectivity left when rating BBB-rated companies:

But we digress, back to the story of Newell:

In 2018, under pressure from activist investors, Newell announced plans to sell about a third of its businesses and buy back more than 40% of its shares, moves that could slow down deleveraging. Moody’s and S&P confirmed the company’s rating and predicted its leverage would fall to less than four times earnings by the end of 2018.

This past February, Newell announced that its debt was 3.5 times earnings at the end of 2018. But Newell failed to account for lost earnings from businesses it sold when it calculated the figure. Investors were skeptical, said James Dunn of CreditSights, an independent credit research firm. He estimated Newell’s actual debt load to be 5.3 times projected earnings.

Of course, Moody’s and S&P’s leverage estimates mirrored Newell’s erroneous approach, the WSJ said after reviewing their calculations. Moody’s estimated Newell’s year-end leverage at 3.8 times in a Nov. 2018 report. S&P put it at 3.9 times in a July 2018 note. Worse, Moody’s also overstated Newell’s earnings by double-counting amortization when calculating EBITDA.

Adjusting for the errors, Moody’s estimate of Newell’s leverage should have been closer to 6x earnings, the Journal found. Instead, Moody’s currently has it below 4.0x!  For those confused, leverage around 6x EBITDA would – in a normal world – make the company a Jefferies special: somewhere in the B2/B category.

Having been caught in a flagrant mistake, earlier this month, Moody’s updated its calculation of Newell’s year-end 2018 leverage to six times earnings, versus a revised estimate of 5.5 times it published in August that took various asset sales into account. However, it sees that number drifting as low as 3.8x by 2022. S&P raised its number to 5.4 times earnings, citing “normalized” figures that also took into account Newell’s asset sales.

End result? The company is still investment grade. An S&P spokesman said in an email that “our analysis speaks for itself.”

It does indeed, and when the next crisis hits, everyone will remember precisely what your “analysis” spoke.

end
Heads start to roll at Boeing
(zerohedge)

Heads Start To Roll: Boeing Commercial Airplane Chief To Leave

Heads at Boeing are finally starting to roll.

One week after the company split the role of CEO and Chairman, making it clear that the fate of Dennis Muilenburg will depend on how quickly he succeeds in putting the company’s raging scandal behind it (or not), the first, and most senior casualty of the Boeing 737 MAX scandal just hit: Kevin McAllister, the executive in charge of commercial airplanes, is expected to leave the company.

McAllister was at the center of the company’s efforts to fix the automated system that contributed to the two crashes and return the plane to service.

 

Kevin McAllister has been at the center of Boeing’s efforts to fix an automated system that contributed to two deadly crashes and return the 737 Max jet to service

Stanley A. Deal, the head of global services for Boeing, is expected to replace Mr. McAllister.

Previously, the New York Times reported that he was under scrutiny inside the company for his poor handling of customer relationships and his management of the commercial division, which is Boeing’s largest business.

It is assumed that by throwing McAllister under the bus, this may ease some of the shareholder anger at the company, and its stock, which has tumbled in the past three days after messages became public that suggested a pilot working on the Max had voiced concerns about the automated system in 2016, months before the Federal Aviation Administration certified the plane. That system, known as MCAS, was found to have played a role in the accidents.

Those messages refuted Boeing’s long-held position that it had no indication that the Max was unsafe until the crashes of Lion Air Flight 610 in Indonesia last October and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in March. Since the Max’s grounding shortly after the second crash, airlines have canceled thousands of flights and lost hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

The Max’s return to service has been delayed multiple times in recent months as Boeing and global regulators have uncovered new problems with the plane. Airlines do not expect the plane to fly again until next year. Boeing has said that if the delays persist much longer, it may be forced to halt production of the Max, a drastic step that would disrupt Boeing’s enormous manufacturing work force and its vast network of suppliers.

Meanwhile, even if it resolves the 737 MAX issues, Boeing’s problems stretch beyond the Max and include claims of shoddy production at Boeing’s Charleston plant, cracking on the 737 NG, the Max’s predecessor, and the discovery of foreign objects inside the KC-46 tanker, a military aircraft that the group builds.

end
Another good indicator that growth is waning..this time in semi-conductor field…
(zerohedge)

Texas Instruments Tumbles After Slashing Guidance

Texas Instruments plunged -10% in after-hours trading after 3Q earnings missed analysts’ expectations. The company reported a -11.5% drop in quarterly revenue, due to macroeconomic headwinds mounting from the US and China trade war.

“Net income fell to $1.43 billion, or $1.49 per share, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, from $1.57 billion, or $1.58 per share, a year earlier. Total revenue for the company, whose broad lineup of products makes it a proxy for the chip industry, fell to $3.77 billion from $4.26 billion,” Reuters noted.

  • 22-Oct-2019 04:01:02 PM – TI REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2019 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
  • 22-Oct-2019 04:01:02 PM – TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC TXN.O Q3 SHR $1.49
  • 22-Oct-2019 04:01:03 PM – TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC TXN.O Q3 REVENUE $3.77 BLN VS REFINITIV IBES ESTIMATE OF $3.82 BLN
  • 22-Oct-2019 04:01:03 PM – TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC TXN.O Q3 SHR ESTIMATE $1.42 — REFINITIV IBES DATA
  • 22-Oct-2019 04:01:03 PM – TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC TXN.O SEES Q4 SHR $0.91 TO $1.09 INCLUDING ITEMS
  • 22-Oct-2019 04:01:03 PM – TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC TXN.O SEES Q4 REVENUE $3.07 BLN TO $3.33 BLN
  • 22-Oct-2019 04:02:37 PM – TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC- QTRLY REVENUE DECREASED 11% FROM SAME QUARTER A YEAR AGO, AS MOST MARKETS WEAKENED FURTHER

The global semiconductor industry has taken a hit in the last year due mostly to the synchronized global downturn amplified by the trade war. However, semiconductor stocks have been soaring to new highs recently, as traders have been pricing in huge growth potential for 2020. Texas Instruments’ earnings mishap is a wake-up call to the semiconductor space that a repricing event is here as guidance is slashed.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Bernie blasts Hillary for her outrageous comments that Gabbard and Stein are Russian assets.  Clinton is a clown to the highest order

(zerohedge)

Bernie Blasts Hillary’s “Outrageous” Gabbard “Russian Asset” Smear

While the mainstream liberal media remains firmly in the pocket of the Clintons’ propaganda machine, spewing russophobic accusations at any and every one who dares question the establishment and military-industrial complex line, there are some – on the left – that are willing to step up and defend Tulsi Gabbard against the latest delusional suggestion from Hillary that she is a ‘Russian asset’.

President Trump was quick to blast Hillary’s accusation:

So now Crooked Hillary is at it again! She is calling Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard “a Russian favorite,” and Jill Stein “a Russian asset.” As you may have heard, I was called a big Russia lover also (actually, I do like Russian people. I like all people!). Hillary’s gone Crazy!

 

But some Democrats also dared to step up against the “queen of warmongers.”

While Mayor Pete was a little evasive on actually talking down the “Russian asset” accusation, he did question it, saying that “statements like that ought to be backed by evidence.”

“I don’t know what the basis is for that,” he said.

“But I consider her to be a competitor. I respect her service. I also have very different views than she does, especially on foreign policy, and I would prefer to have that argument in terms of policy which is what we do at debates and what we’re doing as we go forward.”

Another 2020 presidential hopeful, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, also dismissed the Gabbard claim, insisting the focus of the presidential campaign should be on the economy, climate change and other issues affecting Americans.

“That’s not correct. Tulsi is not being groomed by anyone. She is her own person,” he told reporters after delivering a keynote address Saturday at the Alabama Democratic Conference Semi-Annual Convention in Birmingham.

“Obviously (she) has served this country, continues to serve this country in uniform, in Congress, as a candidate for presidency so I think those facts speak for themselves.”

But Beto could not help but jab at Trump:

“You know, I think the focus has to be on Donald Trump. If we’re talking about the country of Russia, there is a Russian asset in the White House right now.”

Andrew Yang also defended Gabbard:

” Tulsi Gabbard deserves much more respect and thanks than this. She literally just got back from serving our country abroad.”

And now, having been cheated of his chance against Hillary in 2016 – running to her side like a loyal party comrade after the DNC practically ran him out of the party – a post-heartattack Bernie Sanders – perhaps with little left to lose – has finally come out swinging at Clinton.

The Vermont senator (and runner-up to Hillary for the 2016 Democratic nomination) called such accusations “outrageous,” pointing to Gabbard’s background as a military veteran: “Tulsi Gabbard has put her life on the line to defend this country. People can disagree on issues, but it is outrageous for anyone to suggest that Tulsi is a foreign asset.”

Bernie Sanders

@BernieSanders

Tulsi Gabbard has put her life on the line to defend this country. People can disagree on issues, but it is outrageous for anyone to suggest that Tulsi is a foreign asset.

However, Hillary’s attack dogs will be quick to point out that Sanders himself is a “Russian asset.”

end

Wow!! Trump was right..The Ukraine was the centre for money laundering, election interference and the granting of money to Biden’s son for “protection”. This is going to be a dandy!

(CDMedia)

 

CD Media Releasing Information On Poroshenko Money Laundering/Biden Cover Up, In Series Of Articles, With Sourcing

by CD Media Staff15815

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CD Media Releasing Information On Poroshenko Money Laundering/Biden Cover Up, In Series Of Articles, With Sourcing
The complicated money laundering scheme of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko

Developing story…

CD Media has personally seen and obtained an immense amount of data on the story we broke last week regarding former Ukrainian Petro Poroshenko’s laundering of hundreds of millions of dollars of IMF aid money and the attempts by the Democratic Party and the Obama Administration to cover up the scandal and go after now President Trump, along with involvement by then Vice President Joe Biden, and his son Hunter Biden.

As mentioned before, we will be releasing a large number of sourcing articles, starting with this one, over the next few weeks. Another will be released later today which details how the Poroshenko money laundering actually worked.

Our source has seen the data from within the Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s Office. CD Media can confirm the prosecutor’s office is ready to cooperate with the FBI and the information has been recently provided to FBI agents.

The first thing readers must realize is that the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) was an organization set up (extra-judicially) by the Obama Administration within Ukraine to help the Democrats cover up the vast corruption that had been going on, and as a tool to go after then-candidate Donald J. Trump. In fact, the initial head of the bureau engineered by the U.S. State Department in Ukraine, Artem Sytnyk, has been tried and convicted of conspiring to help presidential candidate Hillary Clinton defeat Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Sytnyk’s group was the office that released the so-called ‘black ledger’ against Paul Manafort, who was then Trump’s campaign manager and now sits in jail, convicted by the Mueller investigation.

CD Media’s editor-in-chief reported on the shakiness of the black ledger evidence at the time when writing for The Washington Times.

Before we go into details of the complicated money laundering scheme in the next article later today, another intelligence source inside Ukraine would like the Biden campaign to answer the following questions:

  1. What are the names of two CIA undercover officers who visited the General Prosecutor office and talked to Lutsenko Yuriy demanding that he close the cases on any of Burisma related matters?
  2. Why Burisma related cases were closed at General Prosecutors’ office after that visit and were transferred to NABU and SAP (special prosecutor’s office)? What is the role of NABU and SAP in keeping the cases closed? How did George Kent influence NABU?
  3. Why Burisma cases were stopped for investigation at NABU and SAP in Ukraine?
  4. Why General Prosecutor office in Ukraine (led by Lutsenko Yuriy) denied to send investigative information on Zlochevskiy (beneficiary at Burisma Holdings) and Burisma to the UK Financial Fraud Office? The UK Large Financial Fraud Office released Zlochevskiy and closed the investigation. Check the link.
  5. What was the name of the Latvian “shell” transaction company used by Burisma holdings to transfer the money to Rosemont Seneca Partners (owned and operated by Biden’s family, Archer, Heinz)?
end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

JPMorgan Warns U.S. Money-Market Stress to Get Much Worse

“With a coming up, this is all likely to get much worse…”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-21/jpmorgan-warns-u-s-money-market-stress-likely-to-get-much-worse

A Drug Cartel Just Defeated the Mexican Military in Battle – Mexico is in a state of collapse, and Americans need to realize that the crisis underway south of the Rio Grande won’t stop at the border

    It’s fair to say that Mexico is now on a trajectory to become a vast gangland governed more by warlordism than by the state. The last time this happened was a century ago, during the decade-long Mexican Revolution, which eventually triggered the invasion and occupation of northern Mexico in 1916 by the U.S. Army… The idea that a nation of 120 million people with whom the United States shares a 2,000-mile border and ever-increasing economic ties might spiral into collapse has not seriously occurred to the American people…we’d better start thinking about what that will mean for America.

https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/21/a-drug-cartel-just-defeated-the-mexican-military-in-battle/

Sen. Romney is now a national joke, a punchline.  Slate’s Ashley Feinberg discovered that Mitt cowardly employed a fake Twitter account, Pierre Delecto, to praise himself and to slam DJT and DJT supporters.

 

NBC: Romney confirms he’s behind anonymous ‘Pierre Delecto’ Twitter account – Through the account, now private, Romney defended himself and liked tweets critical of President Donald Trump.

    The account was first revealed by Slate’s Ashley Feinberg, who was also responsible in 2017 for revealing former FBI Director James Comey’s anonymous account…

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/romney-confirms-he-s-behind-anonymous-pierre-delecto-twitter-account-n1069321

 

Everything about this story says so much about Mitt Romney: his pettiness, his insecurity, his lack of character, honesty, and decency, starting with how it all unravel… Romney continues to cuddle up to his media abusers… It’s a clinical condition known as McCain Syndrome, and there’s no known cure…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/21/nolte-mitt-romney-caught-with-secret-pierre-delecto-twitter-account-to-champion-himself/

 

Ex- CIA analyst @BuckSexton: Mitt Romney is a sitting Senator worth hundreds of millions of dollars who feels the need to operate a sock puppet twitter account to snark at people and pump himself up.  And Mitt is supposed to be the #nevertrump leader with the *most* gravitas

 

Ex-Intel officer @JackPosobiec: Keep in mind, Romney thought he was so smart no one would ever discover that Pierro Delecto was his secret account that spent all day bashing Trump supporters and defending Mitt Romney.  This is the vainglorious snit our ruling class says should really be president

Now that Mitt Romney is exposed as Pierre Delecto, what name do you think Paul Ryan secretly uses?

 

Somewhat buried in a story on Friday, Reuters reports that a Ukrainian businessman and ex-member of Parliament claims Burisma hired Hunter Biden for protection.

    Oleksandr Onyshchenko, a businessman and former member of the Ukrainian parliament who knows the Burisma founder, said it had been Zlochevsky’s idea to appoint Biden as a director. “It was to protect (the company)” at a time when it was facing investigations, said Onyshchenko, who left the country in 2016. In the run up to Biden’s appointment, a popular uprising led to the removal of the Russian-backed Yanukovich in February 2014…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hunter-biden-ukraine/what-hunter-biden-did-on-the-board-of-ukrainian-energy-company-burisma-idUSKBN1WX1P7

 

Ukrainian Government Ready to Cooperate with FBI on Laundering Hundreds of Millions of IMF Aid Money and Attempts by DNC to Cover It Up –   Schiff sent a staffer to Ukraine to meet with the former President Poroshenko after receiving the ‘whistleblower’ report… They met directly with former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who lost to current president Volodymyr Zelensky in a landslide 73-25 victory… Poroshenko was known for his strong ties to the Obama Administration, specifically Obama’s point man for Ukraine [Biden]… A convoy of trucks was seen emptying former President Poroshenko’s home this past weekend…   https://thegatewaypundit.com/2019/10/breaking-ukrainian-government-ready-to-cooperate-with-fbi-on-laundering-hundreds-of-millions-of-imf-aid-money-and-attempts-by-dnc-to-cover-it-up/

 

The Philadelphia Inquirer: No one shows up to Joe Biden debate-watch parties in Philly. Does that matter? – Now sluggish fund-raising and debates are flashing warning signs…

https://www.inquirer.com/news/joe-biden-enthusiasm-philadelphia-sad-watch-parties-elizabeth-warren-grassroots-fundraising-20191020.html

 

Warren Would Use Wealth Tax to Fund $800 Billion Education Plan

Proposal would use up remainder of candidate’s proposed $2.75 trillion wealth-tax revenue

https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-would-use-wealth-tax-to-fund-800-billion-education-plan-11571662800

 

@GeorgePapa19: Clapper has gone awfully silent since his month long adventure in Australia where he discussed how to cover up both his and Australia’s involvement in spying on me and others. Remember his testimony to Congress. “I never heard of Papadopoulos.” His perjury is going to come back

 

The American Deep State Would Sooner Sacrifice the Republic Than Lose Again to Donald Trump

Democrats are dragging the Republic to the brink of destruction as they threaten to take down the 45th POTUS… the media does not react to Democratic transgressions with nearly the same amount of hysteria as it does with the Republicans, which explains why Trump is fighting a constant uphill battle…

    Lest anyone forget, the Democrats have been under investigation by Attorney General Bill Barr and federal prosecutor John Durham. These two are currently traveling the world in an effort to determine “the extent to which a number of countries, including Ukraine, played a role in the counterintelligence investigation directed at the Trump campaign during the 2016 election,” Justice Department spokesperson Kerri Kupec said in a statement on Sept. 25…

     In other words, there are two vehicles – one filled with Democrats, the other Republicans – careening towards an intersection at a high rate of speed, and neither looks willing to yield to the other. This is the situation confronting America at the present time: a smashup of epic, deadly proportions, quite possibly on par with its first civil war…

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/10/20/american-deep-state-would-sooner-sacrifice-republic-than-lose-again-to-donald-trump/

 

Media Turns on Hillary for Stealing Russian Asset Script

Hillary Clinton has accused Representative Tulsi Gabbard of being recruited to be a Russia asset in the 2020 election. Members of the mass media have justifiably come out and dismantled her opinion, and even called it “bizarre” and a “conspiracy theory.”… [She debased the Russia-Trump narrative.]

https://thegreggjarrett.com/media-hillary-stealing-russian-asset-script/

 

Hillary Clinton on a Conspiracy Roll, Claims ‘10-Year-Olds Are Hacking Our Voting Systems’

“We know we’re really vulnerable,” she continued. “Every, you know, every Hackathon that happens, you know, 10-year-olds are hacking our voting systems and the networks that connect them.”

https://www.dailywire.com/news/hillary-clinton-on-a-conspiracy-roll-claims-10-year-olds-are-hacking-our-voting-systems

 

Judicial Watch: New Benghazi Documents Confirm Clinton Email Cover-Up

https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-releases/judicial-watch-new-benghazi-documents-confirm-clinton-email-cover-up/

 

More news the MSM is trying to spike: @RyanAFournier: Democrat Rep. Katie Hill was photographed combing an intern’s hair while naked in a hotel room. President Trump should consider releasing the names of every member of Congress that settled sexual harassment claims with taxpayer dollar

Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

USA

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

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