OCT 21//GOLD DOWN $6.25 TO $1684.75//SILVER UP ONE CENT TO $14.57//ANOTHER STRONG QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD (AND SILVER) BY THE BANKS AS THEY TRY AND FIND SCARCE PHYSICAL SUPPLIES//GLD ADDS A WHOPPING 6.45 PAPER GOLD TONNES TO ITS INVENTORY//WE WORK TAKEN OVER BY SOFTBANK IN A DEBTOR IN POSSESSION 6.5 BILLION CASH ADVANCE//WEEKEND CHAOS IN 3 CITIES: HONG KONG, BARCELONA AND SANTIAGO CHILE//ANOTHER BREXIT VOTE DELAY//MORE LAYOFFS AT TROUBLED DEUTSCHE BANK//MORE ON THE SYRIAN-TURKISH CONFLICT//TWO IMPORTANT SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1484.75 DOWN $6.25(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.57 UP 1 CENT  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1484.15

 

silver:  $17.57

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  424/893

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,488.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/18/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/22/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 241
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 48
661 C JP MORGAN 424
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 58
800 C MAREX SPEC 10
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 5
880 H CITIGROUP 888
905 C ADM 41
991 H CME 69
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 893 893
MONTH TO DATE: 11,843

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 893 NOTICE(S) FOR 89300 OZ (2.776 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  11,843 NOTICES FOR 1,184,300 OZ  (36.836 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR OCT

 

 

29 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 145,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1264 for 6,320,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 98237 UP 14 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8179 DOWN 45

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY  SIZED 50 CONTRACTS FROM 211,398 DOWN TO 211,348 DESPITE THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  453 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  453 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 453 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 453 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.265 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.825     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

FRIDAY, A MINOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS DEMAND FOR SILVER WAS JUST TOO STRONG……..  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (3 CENTS LOWER). HOWEVER OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 403 CONTRACTS. OR 2.013 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

16,751 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 16,751 CONTRACTS) OR 83.76 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1116 CONTRACTS OR 5.82 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  81.49 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 11.66% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1723.48   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 50, DESPITE THE 3 CENT LOSS GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 453 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED: 403 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 453 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 50  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.56 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.057 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 29 NOTICE(S) FOR 145,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.825 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 573 CONTRACTS, TO 621,092 DESPITE THE  $3.25 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// FRIDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 4389 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  4,389 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 621,092,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4,962 CONTRACTS: 573 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 4389 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4,962 CONTRACTS OR 496,200 OZ OR 15.42 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $3.25 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 15.42  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE . THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI FOR THE TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED TO BE 4962 CONTRACTS OR 15.42 TONNES 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 95,879 CONTRACTS OR 9,587,900 oz OR 298.22 TONNES (15 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6391 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 298.22 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 298.22/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.40% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4943.67  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE               174.900 MILLION OZ

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 573 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($3.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4389 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4389 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4962 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4387 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 573 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 15.42 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.25 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  893 notice(s) filed upon for 89,300 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A MONSTROUS GAIN OF 6.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD…AND THIS WOULD BE PAPER GOLD

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64  TONNES

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: 

 

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF: 1,122,000 OZ FROM THE SLV

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.797 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 50 CONTRACTS from 211,398 UP TO 211,348 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  453  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 453 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 50  CONTRACTS TO THE 453 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 403 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.015 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NO 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 6.825 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 453 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.48 POINTS OR 0.05%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.10 POINTS OR 0.02%   /The Nikkei closed UP 56.72 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0779 /Oil UP TO 3.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7779 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0666 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)HONG KONG/WE WORK

A We Work collapse would crush the Kong Kong office market

(zerohedge)

ii)Hong Kong

Chaos over the weekend as shops were trashed and banks targeted
(zeROhedge)
iii)CHINA/USA/Sunday 
China’s top trade negotiator agrees with Trump that the two have made substantial progress in their first part of a trade deal
(zerohedge)

iv)China/Brazil

I thought that China was going to buy a boatload of soybeans from the uSA
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)SPAIN/CATALONIA/FRIDAY NIGHT..

Catalonia in chaos as 500,000 march and shut down Barcelona

(zerohedge)

ii)UK/Saturday

UK parliament votes to delay decision on Brexit

iii)MONDAY MORNING/UK

Pound rallies as BoJo pushes for a monday vote on the Brexit deal.

(zerohedge)

iv)As expected Bercow blocks new vote on Johnson’s Brexit deal

(zerohedge)

v)Germany/Deutsche Bank

More layoffs are planned for this bankrupt company
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)LEBANON

Protests galore in Beirut as the Government there tries to introduce a tax of $6.00 on the What’s Up app.

(zerohedge)

ii)TURKEY/CHINA//

There is now no question that Turkey has been bailed out by China as they advanced $3,6 billion dollars and that has kept the Turkish rate below 6.00 to one. The author discusses a huge development inside Turkey whereby Turkish women not only refuse to have children but also refuse to get married.  The drop in marriage in both Istanbul and Ankara is unbelievable (Between 2001-2015 a huge drop of greater than 30% in Istanbul and 40% in Ankara)
(Spengler/Asia Times)

iii)TURKEY/SYRIA/USA/KURDS/Sunday

Erdogan vows to crash the heads of the Kurds if they do not withdraw
(zerohedge)

iv)TURKEY SYRIA/USA/MONDAY

Turkey warns the Syrian Kurds to get out of their 75 mile strip as they will attack them if still in that zone
(zeorhedge)
v)IRAN
Major fire at an Iranian refinery..a cyber attack from Israel  or Saudi Arabia?
(zerohedge)

vi)Middle East/USA/Russia

Tom Luongo discusses his take on the middle East and especially on Syria
(Tom Luongo)

6.Global Issues

i)Renault and Volvo slash guidance as the auto industry across the globe is shattering\

(zerohedge)

ii)And now the diamond industry is collapsing

(zerohedge)

iii)Over the weekend, Chile’s capital Santiago was on fire with mass riots.  Tanks and military troops patrolled the streets(zerohedge)

iv)Now the UN is sounding the alarm bell that there needs to be fiscal stimulus to save the world forma financial crisis

(zerohedge)

v)Syria/USA

As expected, Trump will leave a small garrison in Syria to guard toe oil fields

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Butler questions the high amount of silver taken in by JPMorgan.  The answer is that JPmorgan hold the silver for sovereign USA who owes that silver to China

Ted Butler

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Is that state of California heading towards financial ruin similar to what is happening in Illinois?

(zerohedge)

b)Looks like Boeing is heading to oblivion

(zerohedge)

c)Japan’s Softbank takes control of We Work with a $6.5 billion bailout. Next on the list will be a bailout of Softbank. This is an accident waiting to happen!

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Just look at what Gabbard hammered Clinton on.  She is a good person, wrong party

(Tom Luongo)

b)Mifsud is the genesis of Russiagate.  This will probably bring down Brennan and his gang

(Gateway)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 573 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 621,092 DESPITE THE LOSS OF $3.25 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED FAIR SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4,389 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 4389   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4389 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 4962 TOTALCONTRACTS IN THAT 4389 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 573 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT FELL BY $3.25. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  4962 CONTRACTS OR 496200 OZ OR 15.42 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 1029 contracts still standing for a GAIN of 18 contracts. Yesterday we had 7 notices served upon so we have another strong gain of 25 contracts or an additional 2500 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers/official sector in their attempt to find physical metal on this side of the pond.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 63 contracts and thus the OI INCREASED to 1475.  The very big December contract month saw its oi FALL by ONLY 2577 contracts DOWN to 469,859.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 893 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  89300 OZ. (2.776 TONNES)

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 50 CONTRACTS FROM 211,398 DOWN TO 211348 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 130 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 146 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 175 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 29 CONTRACTS OR 145,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 7 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 483. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 95 CONTRACTS UP TO 157,561.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 29 notice(s) filed for 145,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 263,920  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  248,221  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 21/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 201.07 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
893 notice(s)
 89300 OZ
(2.776 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
136 contracts
(13600 oz)
0.423 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
11,893 notices
1,189,300 OZ
36.836 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else; 0  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ Today  zero amount  arrived

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 0  oz

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 893 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 424 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,893) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (1029 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (893 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,202,900 OZ OR 37.41 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (11,893 x 100 oz)  + (1029)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (893 x 100 oz )which equals 1,202,900 oz standing OR 37.41 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 25 contracts OR 2500 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical on this side of the pond. There is no doubt that these guys need to put out fires springing up everywhere!!

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT…..   37.41 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 70.0155

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 67.4155 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.789 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

I WROTE THE FOLLOWING ON FRIDAY:

“MONDAY’S INVENTORY NUMBERS WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THEY ARE ACCOUNTING FOR THIS HUGE INCREASE IN DEMAND!!”

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,634.308 oz or  35.789 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,186,281.706 oz 254.627 tonnes

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 21 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 676,996.117 oz
BRINKS
DELAWARE
LOOMIS

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
316,954.430
oz
BRINKS

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
594,534.790 oz
JPMORGAN
No of oz served today (contracts)
29
CONTRACT(S)
(145,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
101 contracts
 505,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1264 contracts

6,320,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1

I) inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  316,954.430 oz

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 316,954.430  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  594,534.790   oz…6th day in a row

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 159.5 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.70% of all official comex silver. (159.5 million/314.3 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  594,534.790  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of brinks:  594,534.76 oz…landed in JPMorgan’s house

ii) Out of Delaware  2071.837 oz

iii) Out of Loomis: 80,388.520 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 676,996.117  oz

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.793 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.5 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 29 contract(s) FOR 145,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1264 x 5,000 oz = 6,320,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (130) and the number of notices served upon today 29 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1264 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (130)- number of notices served upon today (29) x 5000 oz equals 6,825,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE GAINED 7 contracts or an additional 35,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 29 notice(s) filed for 145,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  72,471 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 49,592 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 49,592 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 247 million  OZ 35.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.99% ((OCT 21/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.93% to NAV (OCT 21/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.99%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.91 TRADING 14.38///DISCOUNT 3.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

 

OCT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE : A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.45 TONNES//GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

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OCT 21/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 924.64 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 686 TRADING DAYS: 25.01 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 586 TRADING DAYS: A NET 142.13 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.797 MILLION OZ//

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ/

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

 

OCT 21/2019:

:

 

Inventory 379,797 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.96/ and libor 6 month duration 1.95

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .01

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.89%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.99

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.10

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Butler questions the high amount of silver taken in by JPMorgan.  The answer is that JPmorgan hold the silver for sovereign USA who owes that silver to China

Ted Butler

Ted Butler: More unanswered questions

 Section: 

10:45p ET Friday, October 18, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his new essay, “More Unanswered Questions,” silver market analyst Ted Butler wonders why so much silver seems to be moving in and out of New York Commodities Exchange vaults and ending up in the possession of JPMorganChase.

Butler writes: “The Justice Department or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could ascertain easily whether JPMorgan is responsible as I allege, but both seem content to continue to slap JPM’s wrists for spoofing, instead of digging deeper into what really matters.”

Butler’s commentary is posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here —

http://silverseek.com/commentary/more-unanswered-questions-17779

— and at 24hGold here:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-more-unanswered-question…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

More Unanswered Questions

Theodore Butler

|

October 18, 2019 – 11:53am

 

It was, after all, a simple question that sparked my interest in silver from the start. Some 35 years ago, my now-departed friend and mentor, Israel Friedman, challenged me with a question that took me a year to answer. Actually, “challenged” is not the right word, either back then or today. Izzy simply asked a question to which he had no real answer of someone he thought might be able to answer. In a real sense, the question conveyed a degree of respect, in that Izzy only asked me because he thought I might have an answer. It is with that same degree of respect that I ask for answers to my own questions today.

Back then (1985), Izzy asked me why I thought silver was priced so cheaply (around $5/oz) in the face of universal awareness that the world was consuming more silver than was being produced (mining plus recycling); a deficit consumption pattern that had existed for more than 45 years to that point. Simply put, a deficit consumption pattern is the single most bullish condition possible for any commodity, yet silver appeared to be immune from the law of supply and demand.

Of course, silver had run up to $50 five years earlier, thanks largely to the Hunt Brothers, and Izzy had played that run better than just about anyone, buying at $4 and selling at $40. But that was then (1980) and this was now (1985) and silver was again as low as it had been when Izzy first bought it in the mid-1970’s.  Since he had already mastered the silver market, I was a bit perplexed why Izzy was even asking me to answer his question, but I could see he was asking because he valued my opinion – it was less a challenge and much more a seeking of the right answer. In that circumstance, I was not about to offer some off the top of my head flippant answer and I told Izzy I would think about it.

As it turned out, I thought about the answer for more than a year, because Izzy’s question was so darned good – why silver was so cheap in the face of the most bullish supply and demand circumstances possible for any commodity. The answer, of course, was that silver was artificially depressed in price due to excessive and concentrated short selling in COMEX futures – the same answer that explains silver’s depressed price to this day. Quite ironically, Izzy did not accept my answer for a number of years (because I don’t think he was expecting it), but eventually came to embrace it fully, coming to coin terms like “slicing the salami” (the practice by which the commercials get the technical funds to buy or sell) and “full pants down” (an overrun of the big commercial shorts).

Since I believe that much general good came from Izzy asking me his question so many years ago, I would like to use that same approach now to solicit an answer to a question that has bothered me for the past eight and a half years. I do think I know much of the answer (which I’ll provide), but I would like to hear what others have to say since it’s something rarely discussed. I’ll state the facts which can be easily verified and ask you to come up with an answer to the question of why so much silver is being physically moved in and out from the COMEX silver warehouses?

Starting in April 2011, the amount of silver (in the form of industry standard 1000 oz bars) physically moved either into or removed from the COMEX-approved silver warehouses has exploded by a factor of five from the amount physically moved previously. Physical movement or turnover data are available (for free) on a daily basis from the CME Group (owner of the COMEX) for all COMEX/NYMEX metals, including gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium, lead and zinc.

https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html

 

On a weekly basis, the average physical turnover of silver put into or taken out from the COMEX warehouses has averaged 4.5 million ounces per week, or more than 230 million oz annually since 2011, although over the last 52 weeks, more than 300 million oz were physically moved.  Over the past 8.5 years, more than 2 billion oz of silver have been physically moved into or taken out from the COMEX warehouses. Over this same time, total COMEX silver inventories have grown by roughly 200 million oz to 315 million oz currently. The lion’s share of the increase can be traced to deposits of metal into the JPMorgan COMEX silver warehouse of more than 158 million oz (from zero in April 2011).

Other facts include that there have been absolutely no signs of increases in inventory movement in any other COMEX/NYMEX metal or in the metal inventories of any other exchange or for the physical movement in any other commodity away from metals – just COMEX silver warehouse inventories. This makes the physical inventory turnover in COMEX silver completely unprecedented, both for silver prior to 2011 or any other commodity before or since.

There’s no question that silver is actually being physically moved in and out from the COMEX silver warehouses as I’ve described and the data are precise to the nearest hundredth of an ounce. The movements are reported in the received or withdrawn columns and are completely different from category adjustment changes from eligible to registered or vice versa (which don’t involve physical movement). The turnover to which I refer is metal taken off trucks and put into the COMEX warehouses or metal taken from the warehouses and put into trucks and shipped elsewhere. No data are provided as to where the metal is coming from or where it is going once it leaves the COMEX warehouses. Again, the data verifying the physical movements are posted daily.

Please keep in mind that the physical silver inventory turnover is separate and distinct from the paper futures contract positioning that sets the price for silver and other commodities. Futures trading involves paper derivatives contract positioning and the inventory turnover I am speaking of strictly involves the physical movement of 1000 oz bars of silver. One is paper, the other physical.

The questions I am seeking answers to involve why so much physical silver is being and has been moved since April 2011? And why the physical movement erupted in the COMEX silver warehouses and not in any other COMEX or non-COMEX commodity warehouse? And why the physical silver transfers have persisted over the past 8.5 years since suddenly exploding back then?

Back in 1985, I’m sure Izzy had a strong sense that there something wrong with silver’s pricing, although he wasn’t quite able to put his finger on it exactly.  Otherwise, he wouldn’t have asked. Seeking answers was a testament to his innate intelligence. In turn, that is what I am seeking today. I certainly don’t expect a large number of immediate answers to my questions, but even if you have a constructive observation or opinion on the matter, I’d love to hear from you.

Maybe the issues I’ve raised or the questions I’ve asked do not paint as unusual or remarkable a picture as I believe them to paint.  As you know, I did already have a strong and specific interest in silver long before the unprecedented physical movement in COMEX silver inventories began in April 2011. So perhaps I’m too silver intense, but it’s more likely I wouldn’t have even noticed the change in movements if I hadn’t already been monitoring the daily warehouse statistics for the 25 years before 2011.  Then again, this issue transcends silver and I’d like to think I would be intellectually challenged enough to try to come up with the answer to why so much physical metal was spinning in and out of COMEX warehouses if the metal was gold or copper or palladium that was spinning and not silver.

Let me use an example away from silver or other commodities in order to make my point.  Picture an automobile dealership that, alone of all the other dealerships in the US, was turning over its inventory of vehicles many times greater than any other dealership. Cars and trucks were flying off this one dealership’s lot ten or twenty or more times faster than any other dealer. And as the vehicles were flying off the lot, they were quickly replaced by new vehicles, so the overall inventory grew slightly. Wouldn’t everyone, particularly all the other dealers, be interested in what the high-turnover dealer was doing to sell and move so many vehicles? Shouldn’t anyone with a passing interest in silver be interested in why so much metal is moving into and out from the world’s second largest stockpile of silver?

One thing appears certain – the high turnover infers great demand, because without great demand, the COMEX silver inventories would have grown much more than the 20 million ounces they grew over the past year on 300 million ounces of physical turnover. Yes, 300 million oz came into the COMEX, but more than 93% of that in-movement was removed.

Just like Izzy knew instinctively there was something wrong with silver’s price when he asked for my opinion 35 years ago, I think I know what’s behind the unprecedented explosion in COMEX silver warehouse turnover since April 2011. The unprecedented turnover can be attributed to JPMorgan.  As I have long concluded, when silver prices ran to near $50 into April 2011 and JPMorgan was out several billion dollars on its COMEX short position, it made the decision not just to bomb the price lower, it also decided to immunize itself against future run ups in price by buying as much physical silver as possible.

What’s so critical about April 2011 is how it coincides with so many unusual developments at that time. Not only did it kick off the frantic physical turnover and the opening of the JPMorgan COMEX warehouse, it marked the exact start of what was an 8 year protracted decline of as much as 70% in the price of silver.

The date also marked an unusual acceleration in the sale of American Silver Eagle and Canadian Silver Maple Leaf coins which would persist until 2016 that all credible evidence excludes plain vanilla retail buying as the cause. More new silver coins were sold on the deepest and most persistent price decline in history – unless basic human DNA was somehow altered on a widespread basis, the coins weren’t bought by investors acting collectively. The only explanation for the record purchases between 2011 and 2016, was at the hands of a single big buyer. And, yes, all those coins – 150 to 200 million in total – were melted down and converted into 1000 oz bars by JPMorgan. And that’s why the market has not been flooded with these coins since. The only reason JPMorgan stopped buying American Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs was because it was becoming too obvious it was the buyer, so it voluntarily ceased its buying.

As to the massive and unprecedented physical turnover in COMEX silver inventories, I believe it is the result of JPMorgan buying and taking physical silver from the open market and is only tangentially-related to JPMorgan also being the largest delivery stopper of silver futures contracts in its own house account.  In other words, JPMorgan’s non-stop buying of physical silver away from futures deliveries necessitated the unprecedented large physical turnover. Because JPMorgan was “skimming” so much physical silver off the market, new silver had to be brought in to replace what JPMorgan was accumulating.  That is the demand that has been driving the unprecedented physical turnover.

In fact, the only reason COMEX silver inventories have grown over the past 8.5 years is because JPMorgan made the conscious decision to store some of its 850+ million oz hoard in the COMEX warehouses. In addition to the 157 million ounces in the JPM COMEX warehouse, I believe the bank holds another 100 million oz in other COMEX warehouses or 250 million oz or 80% of the 315 million oz total COMEX inventories. JPMorgan stores the 250 million oz it holds in the COMEX warehouses because if it became clear that only 65 million oz (the amount not owned by JPM) existed, even the brain-dead regulators would realize that JPMorgan owns almost all the silver in the COMEX warehouses.

I’m not asking you to accept my version for what accounts for the highly-unusual physical turnover in the COMEX silver inventories, but I am asking you to try to explain the movement any way you see fit. The turnover is so unusual and unprecedented that it does cry out for an explanation. The facts are easy to substantiate, more difficult is putting the facts into the most reasonable explanation. Of course, the Justice Department or the CFTC could ascertain easily whether JPMorgan is responsible as I allege, but both seem content to continue to slap JPM’s wrists for spoofing, instead of digging deeper into what really matters.

 

Ted Butler
www.butlerresearch.com

END

Greyerz – The Destruction Of The World Economy Will Unleash More Global Panic And Market Crashes

October 20, 2019

As the world edges closer to the next crisis, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE and historic moves in currencies and metals warned gave King World News that the destruction of the world economy will unleash more global panic and market crashes.

Something Is Rotten
October 20 (King World News) – Egon von Greyerz:  “Something is rotten in the state of Denmark the world (from Shakespeare’s Hamlet).

In a world that cannot survive without incessant deficit spending, money printing and negative interest rates, there is clearly something very rotten. It is not only rotten but it stinks! Yes it stinks of lies, deceit and moral decadence. So why doesn’t anyone stand up to tell the world where we are heading? Well, for the simple reason that no politician can tell the truth. Because if they did, they wouldn’t be elected. The principal purpose of any politician is to buy votes and to get votes you can never speak the truth.

Also, there are so many vested interests with unlimited rewards. The moneymen who control the financial system have everything to gain from creating false markets, false money and false interest rates…


The Roman philosopher and statesman Seneca said: “Veritas Nunquam Perit” (The Truth Never Perishes). That might very well be true but it can be suppressed for a very long time as we are seeing now all around the world.

Let us first consider the biggest lie, which is money. For 5,000 years, the only real money has been gold and at times silver. Whenever the financial system has deviated from that simple principle by creating false money, whether that is silver coins filled with zinc or copper or just printed paper money, it has ended in disaster for the world.

And that is where we are heading now. A catastrophic course of events was triggered when Nixon closed the gold window on August 15th, 1971. Since then global debt has exploded and all currencies have imploded. Debt, derivatives and unfunded liabilities have gone from manageable amounts in 1971 to over $2 quadrillion today. And every single currency has lost 97-99% in real terms.

The Destruction Of The World Economy
As I mentioned last week, the world, the politicians and the UN are all focusing on the wrong problem. The destruction of the world economy will have consequences of a magnitude that is exponentially greater than climate cycles. We are now at the point when we will not be able to change the course of either of the two. Climate is determined by very long cycles that humans have virtually zero influence on. As regards the financial system, there was a time when it could have been saved. But that time is long gone. Now we just have to let it take its course which will be totally catastrophic for the world.

So why is no one seeing what is happening and why is no one standing up to say that the Emperor is totally naked? The truth is very uncomfortable and painful but it does never perish. It is an incontrovertible fact that virtually all the fiat money that is created by governments, central banks and commercial banks is totally worthless and therefore false. If a government prints money out of thin air to cover deficit spending, that money has ZERO value since all the work required to create it was to press a button on a computer.

We also know that the money has zero value because no bank or central bank is prepared to pay interest on deposits. Instead, because money is worthless, these bankers want to be paid to hold the money. It is really quite logical. Why should you pay interest on money which has zero value? And when a bank receives a $1,000 deposit and then lends out that same money ten times or more, that money is also worthless since it has cost $0 to issue the loans. It is the same with a credit card company, or car financing, they all issue fake money created by the use of a button.

A Vicious Cycle
It is this vicious cycle of money printing that has inflated asset bubbles to an extreme today. We all know what happens when a bubble gets too big — IT POPS! And when it pops, all the air that was inside the bubble just disappears.

For the ones who don’t understand what this means, let me explain. Let us start with the asset bubble. When the global stock, property and other bubble asset markets pop, all these assets will lose at least 95%of their value in real terms. The best way to measure real terms is obviously gold since that is the only money which has survived and maintained its purchasing power for thousands of years.

And if we look at the debt bubble, global debt is at least $270 trillion. But when the debt bubble pops, so will other liabilities like the $1.5 quadrillion of derivatives.  So when the debt bubble pops, virtually all fiat money becomes totally worthless. No one can repay it and no one is willing to buy it.

I know that the above two paragraphs are a very simplified explanation of what will happen over coming years, but hopefully it makes it easy to understand.

These events will obviously not happen in one go. It will most likely start first with stock markets crashing, which will put pressure on credit markets. More QE will follow but that will only have a short term effect.

There Will Be More Crashes
There will be more crashes, more money printing, inflation, hyperinflation, credit defaults and bank defaults. It will all unravel relatively quickly until their will be a deflationary implosion of most assets. I outlined it briefly in my article last week called “Global Warning”. We had the first clear signals from several major central banks that something was rotten in the world financial system already in August when the Fed, ECB and BOJ all declared that they would do what it takes to support the system. I wrote about this important event in my article from August 25th.

Then in September the Fed started overnight Repos of $75 billion increasing to $100 billion. They also undertook 14 day Repos of $30 billion increasing to $60 billion. Following from that the Fed has now announced that they will start QE of $60 billion per month. But we mustn’t call it QE according to the Fed. So let us just call it money printing because that is what it is.

Either Way They Are Doomed
The President of the Minneapolis Fed said, “This is not about changing the stance of monetary policy. This is about making sure markets are functioning. This is kind of just a plumbing issue.” He is of course right, it is a plumbing issue. But the problem is that the financial system is leaking like a sieve with no chance of plugging all the holes. Between the end of 2017 and 2019 the Fed reduced its balance sheet by $700 billion from $4.5 trillion to $3.8 trillion. As always, the Fed hasn’t got a clue. They didn’t understand that there was no chance to take away the punch bowl from a system that couldn’t survive without a constant feed of more printed money. The problem is that the system won’t survive with more money printing either. Because you can never solve a debt problem with more debt. So either way they are doomed.

So the Fed is now joining the ECB and will now start to print € 20 billion a month indefinitely. The BOJ has of course never stopped printing. They own 50% of all Japanese bonds and are supporting the stock market aggressively. The BOJ balance sheet has gone up 8X since 1999 and is now Yen 560 trillion ($5 trillion).

Yes, the system is rotten and is now starting to smell. The actions by the Fed, in particular, in the last few weeks smells of panic. Is there a problem with JP Morgan, or Bank of America or maybe the Fed is supporting the bankrupt Deutsche Bank? We will probably soon find out where the biggest pressures are. On top of the bank problems, corporate debt is getting riskier by the day. The financing of companies like We Work and Merlin are clear signs of how dangerous this market has become. The central banks are already fighting fires and so far very few people are aware of the fires. But it is only a matter of time before these pressures in the financial system will spread like wildfires.

Investment markets will soon reflect the risks in the financial system. Stock markets are likely to fall heavily this autumn and the precarious month of October isn’t over yet. But potentially the fall might not happen until early next year. Regardless, the risk is there today. And the dollar is extremely weak. In spite of paying the highest interest of any major currency, the dollar is now weakening and is probably staring the final leg to ZERO.

Finally…
Finally, the precious metals have merely just started to reflect the risks in the financial system. The small correction that we are now seeing will soon be finished. But no use worrying about these small movements in the metals. Physical gold and silver will soon start their journey to multiples of today’s prices. But more importantly, they will be life savers as the financial cycles crumble…For those who would like to read more of Egon von Greyerz’s fantastic articles CLICK HERE.

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Dave Kranzler talks with Craig Hemke on Repos, gold and mining stocks.

Repo Operations, Money Printing, Gold And Mining Stocks

October 20, 2019Financial Markets, Gold, Market Manipulation, Precious Metals, U.S. Economybalance sheet expansion, mining stocks, QE, repo market, silver

The Fed is printing money again – this time disguised as “repo operations” instead of “QE.” The price of gold and silver rallied over the summer anticipating an easier monetary policy. The economic problems and financial system excesses are two to three times larger than in 2008. This will necessitate a money printing/QE/balance sheet expansion operation that dwarfs the $4.5 trillion printed the first time around. Plus most of the money printed from 2009 to late 2014 is still in the banking system.

The scale of the inevitable money printing policy will not stimulate economic activity but it will act as rocket fuel for the precious metals market – gold, silver and mining stocks. Ten years of Central Bank money printing has pushed debt issuance, malinvestment, moral hazard and fraud to levels that well-exceed the levels when Lehman collapsed.

Craig “Turd Ferguson” Hemke invited me back onto his “Thursday Conversation” podcast to discuss the Fed cranking back up its money printing machine and the implications for gold, silver and mining stocks. Click on the graphic below to listen:

-END-

Good news fro

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0779/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0666   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 1.48 POINTS OR 0.05%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 6.10 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 56.22 POINTS OR 0.25%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.15/Euro RISES TO 1.1169

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.56/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.45 and Brent: 59.09

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.38%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.98% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.28%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.33: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.32

3k Gold at $1491.50 silver at: 17.77   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 1/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.67

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.56 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9849 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0993 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.38%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.78% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.28%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8221..

US Futures Rally As Trade Deal, Brexit Optimism Return Despite Prevailing Chaos

One day after US stocks ended last week on the back foot amid growing uncertainty over Brexit, the ongoing trade talks on “Phase one” deal between the US and China and signals of a global slowdown, world stocks and US futures have rebounded, with risk sentiment boosted as the “ole’ faithful” – optimism in trade talks – made a return, with the added kicker of resurgent hopes that Britain will avoid a disorderly exit from the European Union gave cause for riskier bets, even though Saturday’s events in the UK showed that BoJo is anything if in control of the process.

Global markets started off the new week, the second busiest in Q3 earnings season, on the front foot, with MSCI’s world equity index rising 0.2%, with the broad Euro STOXX 50 adding 0.4%, led by mining and banking shares. Major European bourses are modestly firmer after risk sentiment turned more constructive following AsiaPac indecisiveness, during which the latest developments (or lack thereof) on the Brexit front and the PBoC’s decision not to cut Loan Prime Rates contributed to the cautious tone. The FTSE 100 (+0.1%) lags amid a stronger Pound on hopes that the worst possible Brexit outcomes are off the table and that PM Johnson may have enough backing for his Brexit deal. Sectors are mostly in the green, apart from defensives, with Consumer Staples (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.5%) and Utilities (-0.2%) all lagging on improved risk appetite.

The positive mood mirrored gains for Asian stocks earlier in the session. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose 0.3%, with Chinese shares gaining 0.3%. The Asian advance was led by financial and industrial firms, as traders awaited quarterly earnings and a Brexit deal that’s still up in the air. Markets in the region were mixed, with Japan advancing and Australia retreating. The Topix rose 0.4%, supported by services, telecommunications and banking shares. The Shanghai Composite Index erased earlier losses to close 0.1% higher, with large lenders and insurers among the biggest boosts. China’s economy may be ready to stabilize despite recent warning signs, according to some economists.

In the US, S&P500 futures nudged up, pointing to a firm open that would keep American stocks still within sight of a fresh all-time high.

Appetite for riskier assets was supported as markets judged the chances of a disruptive “no deal” Brexit as lowering, even after Britain’s parliament delayed a vote on Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s deal to exit the EU. As reported earlier, BoJo will seek to put his Brexit deal to a vote on Monday, with the government proposing a debate on the agreement. Parliament was due to open at 1330 GMT. It was unclear, though, whether parliament’s speaker would allow a vote to go ahead; for now however traders bought the pound first and would ask questions later, with cable rising as high as 1.30 before, the highest level since May, a long-term resistance level, before paring back some of the move.

As a reminder, on Saturday, the UK Parliament vote on a Brexit deal was postponed after lawmakers voted (322-306) in favor of passing the Letwin amendment which withholds approval of the Brexit deal until legislation to ratify it is passed and which effectively forced PM Johnson to request a Brexit extension to January 31st under the Benn Act. Following this, PM Johnson stated that the legislation will be tabled in the upcoming week and sent a letter to the EU requesting a Brexit extension which he did not sign, while he sent 2 other letters where he stated that the extension request was from Parliament and urged the EU not to grant the extension. UK PM Johnson could be held in contempt by Scottish Court for urging EU leaders to ignore a letter asking for an extension to Brexit. Scotland’s most senior judge, Carloway, alongside two other judges will hear the allegations today. UK de facto Deputy Gove has triggered official contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit in an attempt to pressure MPs into backing PM Johnson’s Brexit deal. Elsewhere, the UK Government are reportedly drawing up plans for an election as soon as November 28th.

Daily Telegraph’s Political Correspondent Yorke tweeted that a senior DUP figure said the party could back a customs union amendment to the WAB in order to ensure whole of the UK leaves EU under the same customs arrangements and that the party will discuss issue over next 24-48 hours, while he added that another DUP figure said they’ll unleash guerrilla warfare in Parliament to block the Brexit deal unless Boris Johnson goes back to Brussels and addresses their concerns with the party said to be looking at multiple options this week.

Earlier in Asia, investors were boosted by Chinese vice premier Liu He’s comments on Friday that Beijing will collaborate with the United States to address mutual concerns on the trade war. President Trump on Friday also struck an optimistic tone, saying he thought a trade deal would be signed before an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Chile next month.

“They seem to making progress,” said Jeremy Gatto, an investment manager at Unigestion in Geneva. “But we have seen in past that everything seems to look great and then a couple of days later seems to deteriorate again.” The 2020 U.S. presidential election was also influencing the talks, investors said, with Trump looking to avoid the possibility of tariffs imposed by China impacting his voting base. “Trump realizes that some of the tariffs that potentially could be implemented towards the end of the year could affect the consumer, which would be bad for the U.S. economy – and obviously bad for him,” Gatto said.

“It would be significant if they can get a phase one deal signed before Thanksgiving — the probability of that is probably a little bit over 60% right now,” Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services, told Bloomberg TV. “This is a very important issue, and I think it could remove a lot of uncertainty.”

Markets are also gearing up for high-profile earnings reports this week. Earnings season continues with a large number of releases taking place next week. On Tuesday, there’ll be Procter & Gamble, Novartis, McDonald’s, Texas Instruments, United Technologies and UBS Group. Wednesday will see Microsoft, Boeing, PayPal, Caterpillar and Ford announce results. On Thursday, there’s Amazon, Visa, Intel, Comcast, AstraZeneca, Royal Bank of Scotland, Nordea Bank and Twitter. And on Friday, announcements come from Verizon Communications, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Charter Communications and Barclays.

As noted above, in FX it was all about the pound, which had surged to $1.3015, recovering earlier losses of half a percent against the dollar. Sterling had by Friday risen by up to 6.5% in seven trading days to a five-month high, as a furious short squeeze underscored market expectations that either a deal or delay was most likely. As we reported on Sunday, Goldman Sachs said it now sees the chance of a no-deal Brexit reduced to 5%, from 10% previously.

Still, some investors said that sterling’s medium-term prospects were limited, even if no deal is avoided.

“I wouldn’t be too bullish because there is still going to be a huge amount of uncertainty going forward, even if the current deal is agreed,” said Tim Drayson, head of economics at Legal & General Investment Management. “If this deal does go through, ultimately it is still a relatively hard Brexit – we are out of the customs union – and it is still a deterioration in the UK terms of trade.”

Elsewhere, the dollar weakened against most G-10 peers as the week started with a pickup in risk sentiment.

In rates, Treasuries and euro-area bonds dropped as disagreements surfaced over next year’s budget, while gilts fall amid growing optimism that a Brexit breakthrough is possible. BTPs bear steepened, 10-year yields rising 5bps to 0.98%, reaching the highest since Sept. 12 ahead of a coalition meeting in Rome Monday. At the same time, Gilts slumped as U.K. PM Johnson attempts to put his Brexit deal to a vote in Parliament, with the U.K. 10-year yield climbing as much as 7bps to 0.78%.

In commodities, oil prices largely held steady on Monday, recouping some early losses as investors took stock of global economic pressures that could impact oil demand. Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures were down 12 cents to $59.35 a barrel.

There are no major economic announcements today; Halliburton, Lennox, and Celanese are reporting earnings today.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,995.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 393.07
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 160.04
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 514.63
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 22,548.90
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,628.60
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.02% to 26,725.68
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.05% to 2,939.62
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 39,298.38
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.04% to 6,652.51
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,064.84
  • German 10Y yield rose 4.2 bps to -0.34%
  • Euro up 0.09% to $1.1177
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.6 bps to 0.586%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 4.2 bps to 0.287%
  • Brent futures down 1.2% to $58.71/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,490.40
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.23

Top Market News from Bloomberg

Asian equity markets began the week with a cautious tone following last Friday’s lacklustre close on Wall St and amid continued Brexit uncertainty. ASX 200 (Unch) and Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) were mixed with Australia dragged by underperformance in the tech sector. However, resilience in the property and mining sectors has limited the losses in Sydney, while Tokyo sentiment was kept afloat by mild JPY weakness as a larger than expected contraction in exports ata added to the pressure for the BoJ to act. Hang Seng (Unch) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) conformed to the indecision after the PBoC injected liquidity via open market operations but refrained from anticipated cuts to its Loan Prime Rates, with Hong Kong also mildly underpinned after China revised rules to permit mainland investors to trade Hong Kong-listed dual class shares through the Stock Connect. Finally, 10yr JGBs are lower in which prices retested prior support around the 154.00 level and with demand subdued as Japanese stocks remained afloat, although downside was stemmed amid the BoJ presence in the market for JPY 1.16tln of JGBs in up to 10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • China Braces for Sub-6% Economic Growth in Key Policy Meetings
  • Temasek Offers to Buy Control of Keppel for About $3 Billion
  • Xiaomi’s Long Suffering Shareholders to Get Mainland Boost
  • China Banks Unexpectedly Keep Loan Prime Rate Steady in October
  • ESR Seeks $1.45 Billion in Year’s Second-Biggest H.K. IPO

Major European Bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%) are modestly firmer after risk sentiment turned more constructive following AsiaPac indecisiveness, during which the latest developments (or lack thereof) on the Brexit front and the PBoC’s decision not to cut Loan Prime Rates contributed to the cautious tone. The FTSE 100 (+0.1%) lags amid a stronger Pound on hopes that the worst possible Brexit outcomes are off the table and that PM Johnson may have enough backing for his Brexit deal. Sectors are mostly in the green, apart from defensives, with Consumer Staples (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.5%) and Utilities (-0.2%) all lagging on improved risk appetite. In terms of individual movers; Wirecard (+8.2%) shares spiked higher on the news that the Co. had decided to commission an independent audit relating to the recent allegations made by the FT. Smith and Nephew (-8.0%) sunk after the Co.’s CEO stepped down. Micro Focus (-5.6%) fell on after Open Text confirmed that it is not considering a potential acquisition. Meanwhile, strong earnings saw SAP (+1.7%) move higher, while weak earnings saw Just Eat (-6.5%) head lower. Prudential (-8.2%) shares took a dive on the news that the Co. is to split its UK business (M&G Business) from its Asia operations today. Finally, Osram (-0.4%) shares were initially supported by an upgrade to buy at Commerzbank and after AMS (+4.9%) confirmed its offer for the Co. whilst lowering its minimum accepted threshold, whilst Pearsons (+0.1%) was upgraded to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank.

Top European News

  • Wirecard Shares Jump After Hiring KPMG for Independent Audit
  • Swiss Greens Surge at the Expense of the Anti-Immigrant Right
  • Berlin Freezes Rents in Landmark Plan to Tackle Cost Spiral
  • M&G Starts Trading in London at Low End of Analyst Estimates

In FX, sterling has staged a strong comeback from post-super Saturday lows amidst increasingly bullish calls for the Pound and more bouts of short covering on the premise that the risk of a hard Brexit is declining with every move by UK Parliament to assume control of proceedings and/or force another Article 50 extension. Cable snuffed out stops around 1.3000 after eclipsing last week’s 1.2990 peak, but topped out around 1.3012 and Eur/Gbp retreated through 0.8600, though the cross held above last Thursday’s 0.8575 base as the single currency climbed alongside its UK counterpart.

  • NZD/AUD – Although Sterling’s resilience awaiting PM Johnson’s next move and attempt to put his WA to the HoC is noteworthy, the Antipodean Dollars are outperforming and extending their recovery gains vs the Greenback as the Kiwi climbs above 0.6400 and Aussie nudged over 0.6875. The improvement in US-China trade relations and less dovish on balance near term RBNZ and RBA policy outlooks have underpinned the Nzd and Aud, while the YUAN is also maintaining momentum with the aid of steady PBoC mid-point fixes.
  • CAD/EUR/CHF/JPY – The Loonie is benefiting from broad Buck weakness, as Usd/Cad eyes 1.3100 and support residing just ahead of the big figure, while the DXY has declined through 97.280 Fib support to fresh sub-97.200 lows and closer to the next downside chart target before 97.000 even (97.033 lows from August). Not much sign of Canadian election jitters or pressure via the ongoing retracement in crude prices, with Tuesday’s retail sales data expected to reveal stronger consumption. Elsewhere, Eur/Usd has been tracking Cable as noted above, but also buoyed by higher Eurozone debt yields on its way up towards 1.1180 and conscious of decent layered option expiry interest from 1.1120-30 (1 bn) through 1.1150-60 (1 bn) to 1.1200 (1.1 bn), while the 200 DMA is also in close proximity (1.1209). Conversely, the Franc and Yen are lagging on mild risk-on trade and safe-haven unwinding, as Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf pivot 108.50 and 0.9850 respectively after weaker than forecast Japanese trade data overnight and a decline in weekly Swiss sight deposits.
  • NOK/SEK/TRY – The Scandi Crowns are both clawing back losses amidst the aforementioned risk positive tone, and also consolidating ahead of Thursday’s Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings that preface the ECB convene and could see the former retain guidance for tightening around the turn of the year. Eur/Nok has retreated from new record highs around 10.2440 to sub-10.1900 and Eur/Sek has pulled back further from peaks over 10.9300 to just under 10.7300 at one stage. However, geopolitical jitters have resurfaced to blight Turkey’s Lira after initial relief in wake of the 5-day ceasefire in Syria, with Usd/Try back above 5.8200 in advance of this week’s CBRT rate decision (also on Thursday and contributing to a Central Bank fest) and weighing up whether 1-week repo will be cut again, and if so by how much.

In commodities, crude markets are lower, but choppy, after risk sentiment seemingly took a turn for the better in early trade, although some downside was seen later in the session with no immediate fundamental catalysts of note. The recent downside took WTI Dec’ 19 futures back below the 54/bbl mark whilst its Brent counterpart lost the 59/bbl handle after initially consolidating around USD 59.50/bbl region during APAC/early EU trade. In terms of supply news, media reports alleged that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are expected to sign an agreement within 45 days which would see oil production resumed at the neutral zone; and see production at the jointly run fields of Khafji and Wafra reopen following four years of closure amid an ongoing dispute between the two countries. Around 500mln BPD could be brought back online, however, ING note that given that both Iraq and Kuwait are part of the OPEC+ production cut deal, it should not have an impact on overall oil supply for the time being. On the geopolitical front, US Defence Secretary Esper noted that US troops in Syria are with SDF to deny access of oilfields to ISIS and others, but no decision has yet been made about keeping the troops there. Moving on to metals; Gold is slightly lower, but sits well within recent ranges, after the precious metal failed an early bid to get substantially above its 10DMA at 1493/oz. Copper, meanwhile, remains a beneficiary of the mostly weaker buck, despite a lack of decisive PBoC action overnight.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The next 36 hours will be absolutely crucial in the whole Brexit saga…. hang on… I’m sure we’ve said that about 12 times in the last year. Perhaps this time it’s true but don’t hold all of your breath. There’s little point going through the whole twists and turns of Saturday other than to say that the Government’s Brexit deal vote was blindsided by an amendment that said they could not attempt to pass the deal until all the legislation had gone through Parliament. This was meant to shore up the defences against no-deal and forced PM Johnson to write an (unsigned) letter to the EU asking for an extension. He sent this with another letter saying that in reality he doesn’t want one and doesn’t think the U.K. needs it or is best served by it. If we take a step back the situation is actually more positive for the government than it was on say Thursday/Friday of last week but they have lost some momentum. Back then it was slowly swinging towards the PM’s deal but it still looked like it would fall slightly short whereas it actually probably would have passed had the main vote been held on Saturday.

Although the PM lost the amended vote by 322 to 306 that essentially means that only 8-9 need to now vote for the deal for it to go through. Given that a few of those that voted against the government on Saturday have already publicly stated that they will now vote for the deal given they now feel more certain that a no-deal is off the table, there is a decent chance the deal can still pass through Parliament. There are a few massive caveats below however.

It seems the government will try to have another meaningful vote today but there seems to be a high probability that the speaker won’t allow it as it would be essentially the same bill as Saturday’s which is not technically allowed. If so we will likely move onto Tuesday where first the government is expected to put the program motion with the timetable of events to try to pass the deal. This could be the first obstacle. Then when they try to bring the legislation through, the amendments will come thick and fast with the main ones likely being a confirmatory referendum on the deal and one on membership of the customs union. It’s not clear that the numbers are there for either but the second one is more likely, might get momentum, and would be something the current government is highly unlikely to accept which in turn might encourage more to vote for it. As such if this goes through expect the bill to be withdrawn and we’ll be back at square one – albeit with a no-deal Brexit being much less likely than it was two weeks ago

It’s possible that the lure of customs union membership may sway those who were going to vote for the PM’s bill out of there being no alternative. It may also attract those who have no interest in that but see it as the best way of stopping the PM’s bill going through. So it could be a lightning rod. So it’s possible that the Government’s deal loses a little of the momentum it had last week when MPs felt that they had to agree to it for lack of alternatives. We also have to take into account any response from the EU to the request for a delay. The most likely scenario is that the EU stays fairly quiet until they see what Parliament does and hoping that no response might encourage some MPs to go for the deal in case an extension isn’t offered. Ultimately it probably will be though. It’s also not impossible that there’ll be a vote of no confidence finally now that no deal has been ruled out (assuming the EU are onside). However the government (and ex Tories) are unlikely to support that if there’s a deal on the edge of passing. Confused? You’re not alone.

We still think most scenarios point towards a deal, a softer Brexit, an election or a second referendum (with a deal on the table) and as such any dips in Sterling should be a buying opportunity. However strange unexpected things continue to happen and what we’ll be talking about in tomorrow or Wednesday’s EMR is very much up for grabs.

This morning in Asia, Sterling is down around -0.6% and is relatively calm for now. Elsewhere markets are making modest advances in thin trading with the Nikkei (+0.37%), Hang Seng (-0.32%), CSI (+0.31%) and Kospi (+0.11%) all up. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.25% while oil prices are down c. -0.30%. As for overnight data releases, China’s October 1 year and 5 year loan prime rates both came higher than consensus at 4.20% (vs. 4.15%) and 4.85% (4.83%) respectively. Meanwhile, Japan’s September trade balance stood at JPY -123.0bn (vs. JPY -54.0bn expected) with imports declining by -1.5% yoy (vs. -2.8% yoy expected) while exports declined -5.2% yoy (vs. -3.7% yoy expected).

In other weekend/ overnight news, China’s Vice Premier Liu He said that “China and the U.S. have made substantial progress in many aspects, and laid an important foundation for a phase one agreement,” while reiterating that China is “willing to work in concert with the U.S. to address each other’s core concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect.” Staying with China, the National Development and Reform Commission’s spokesman Yuan Da said overnight that growth volatility is acceptable if other targets on new jobs, residential income and environment protection could be met while adding that the statement that China’s economy is going through severe slowdown is “unfounded”. Elsewhere, the Greens overtook the Christian Democrats in Switzerland elections to become the fourth-strongest party in parliament’s 200-member lower house, and the Green Liberal Party (GLP) also increased its share of the vote, meaning that the two now control about a quarter of the chamber (44 seats). Meanwhile, the euro-skeptic Swiss People’s Party (SVP) is set to lose 11 seats, according to state broadcaster SRF, as voters got swayed by environmental concerns. This is a trend that looks set to continue in the years ahead.

Outside of Brexit there’s a lot going on this week including the release of the crucial preliminary PMI readings for October (Thursday), Mario Draghi’s final ECB meeting as President (also Thursday), and earnings season gathering momentum with a large number of releases due.

Given how poor the PMIs have been over the last two months (with services catching down) the preliminary PMIs on Thursday will be potentially pivotal. Manufacturing has been doing particularly poorly, with the German PMI falling to 41.7 in September, its lowest reading since June 2009, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI was also deep in contractionary territory in September at 45.7, the lowest reading since October 2012. The consensus expectation is for a modest rise in both the manufacturing and the services PMIs for the Euro Area, with the consensus expecting a 46.0 reading in manufacturing and a 52.0 reading in services. The US equivalent numbers will also be scrutinised for any signs that the “phase one” US/China handshake has made any very early impact.

The main central bank event next week comes from the ECB, who’ll be deciding policy on Thursday with a quiet one expected on Draghi’s last outing. The press conference will be his last opportunity to push the direction of the debate and it’ll be interesting to see the word count for the word “fiscal”. In terms of Fed speakers, it’s a light week as we enter a blackout period ahead of the next FOMC meeting on October 30th.

Other data releases to look out for include Thursday’s US preliminary durable goods orders for September along with September’s new home sales reading. Finally, Friday will see the release of the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for October, along with the current conditions and expectations readings. The preliminary release saw consumer sentiment rise more than expected to 96.0 (vs. 92.0 expected).

Earnings season continues with a large number of releases taking place next week. On Tuesday, there’ll be Procter & Gamble, Novartis, McDonald’s, Texas Instruments, United Technologies and UBS Group. Wednesday will see Microsoft, Boeing, PayPal, Caterpillar and Ford announce results. On Thursday, there’s Amazon, Visa, Intel, Comcast, AstraZeneca, Royal Bank of Scotland, Nordea Bank and Twitter. And on Friday, announcements come from Verizon Communications, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Charter Communications and Barclays.

Reviewing last week now, the “positive” Brexit news dominated attention last week, helping most global equities to rally. The S&P 500 and STOXX 600 gained +0.54% and +0.06% (-0.39% and -0.32% Friday), respectively, and the moves had a distinct cyclical tilt. Bank stocks gained +2.69% and +2.67% in the US and Europe (+0.43% and +0.12% Friday), while an index of utilities shares dropped -0.14% (+0.37% Friday). The moves retraced a bit on Friday, as some trade pessimism resurfaced when the White House announced the Vice President Pence will give a speech about China on Thursday. Will this be his long anticipated hawkish speech that’s been postponed previously? Semiconductor shares fell -0.06% on the week (-1.06% Friday), as some indeed expect him to be confrontational. The DOW fell -0.17% (-0.95% on Friday), dragged down by Boeing’s -8.19% fall (-6.73% Friday) as reports indicated that company employees had concerns about the 737 MAX plane as early as 2016.

Government bonds sold off again last week, with 10-year yields up +2.5bps and +6.0bps in the US and Germany (+0.2bps and +2.6bps Friday). The front-end treasury curve rallied -1.8bps, however (-2.6bps Friday), on firmer expectations for Fed rate cuts. Vice Chair Clarida gave the final Fed comments before their pre-meeting blackout period, and he continued to emphasize “evident risks” to the outlook, saying nothing to push back on market pricing. The market is now just about fully priced for a cut at the October meeting, plus around a 40% chance for another cut in December. That helped the dollar to weaken -1.18% (-0.48% Friday), which came despite euro and pound strength. Those currencies gained +1.13% and +2.49% (+0.38% and +0.72% Friday) amid the positive Brexit news.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.48 POINTS OR 0.05%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.10 POINTS OR 0.02%   /The Nikkei closed UP 56.72 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0779 /Oil UP TO 3.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7779 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0666 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

HONG KONG/WE WORK

A We Work collapse would crush the Kong Kong office market

(zerohedge)

WeWork Valuation Collapse From Cash Crunch Could Crush Hong Kong Office Market 

WeWork running out of cash has derailed the company’s plan for massive expansion worldwide. JPMorgan Chase and SoftBank/Vision Fund are preparing to offer the company financial lifelines to avoid bankruptcy in the coming months.

As Bloomberg reports, SoftBank is assembling a rescue financing plan for WeWork that may value the office-sharing company below $8 billion, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The new figure is a fraction of the $47 billion valuation the startup commanded as recently as January. The talks are fluid and the terms could change, said the people, who requested anonymity because the discussions are private.

WeWork’s woes could threaten many office space markets across the world, but the Financial Times has determined that Hong Kong could be the first domino to drop.

The demise of WeWork could be devastating for Hong Kong’s office space market, already dealing with tremendous stress from social unrest and an overall economy that has been thrown into a technical recession.

Keith Hemshall, Cushman & Wakefield’s head of office services in Hong Kong, said WeWork was “one of the key pillars of demand in the past one to two years.”

WeWork’s footprint of shared office spaces in Hong Kong has jumped 700% since 2016, from 112,000 square feet to 821,300 square feet in 2H19.

While WeWork’s S1 SEC filing never told investors that the sole reason for an IPO was to remain solvent (great job Goldman), the failed IPO attempt last month, suggests that its growth in Hong Kong will level off shortly.

WeWork has been regarded as the savior of Hong Kong’s office space market.

So if there’s a deceleration in new leases and or other acquisitions, it could be disastrous for the city, real estate firm Savills told FT.

Hemshall said WeWork’s quick expansion across Hong Kong led to the boom of shared office spaces. He said, “Everyone really depended on WeWork.”

WeWork accounts for a little under half of all shared office space in Hong Kong and is about 66% of grade-A shared office space in the city.

Cushman & Wakefield said shared office spaces represent about 3% of the overall grade A market, but in the last several years, shared office spaces have been a significant contributor to new leases and development in the commercial area. WeWork accounted for 86% of that.

Henry Chin, head of research for Asia Pacific at CBRE, said that WeWork “took long leases at the top of the market, then the market turned.”

Hong Kong is now in a recession as social unrest is accelerating in mid-October. WeWork is expected to run out of cash by mid-November. A perfect storm could be inevitable, one where WeWork starts missing rent payments and could cause a scare in the city’s office space market.

END
Hong Kong
Chaos over the weekend as shops were trashed and banks targeted
(zeorhedge)

Hong Kong Chaos: Shops Trashed, Banks Targeted, And Petrol Bombs Tossed At Police

After several weeks of peace in Hong Kong, tens of thousands of protestors took to the streets over the weekend and participated in an illegal march that led to hundreds of stores trashed, Chinese banks targeted, and several metro stations firebombed, reported Reuters.

At the start of the weekend, Hong Kong Police denied pro-democracy protestors the right to march through an upscale shopping district.

Then by Sunday, thousands of black-clothed protesters clashed with police, exchanging tear gas and petrol bombs that sent the city into chaos once more.

Protests firebombed the Tsim Sha Tsui police station on the Kowloon peninsula.

SCMP News

@SCMPNews

: An electricity box on Nathan Road in Mong Kok is set on fire http://sc.mp/n2lno

View image on Twitter

SCMP News

@SCMPNews

: Protesters hurl petrol bombs at Tsim Sha Tsui Police Station, with flames briefly burning on the entrance gate http://sc.mp/n2lno

Video: SCMP/Kimmy Chung

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RT

@RT_com

protesters throw Molotovs at police stationhttps://on.rt.com/a3p8

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There were several other reports that protestors used petrol bombs and targeted metro stations in the city.

HongKongRiot2019香港暴動實錄@HK2019Riot

Violent continue damage across territory during , including fire on power supply facilities…hope to get them asap!

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Global Times

@globaltimesnews

Video: rioters set fire to Mong Kok MTR subway station in an illegal assembly on Sunday afternoon.

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18 people are talking about this

May-Ying Lam

@mayyin9

Protesters attack exits at Mongkok MTR stations, setting multiple fires

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Veta Chan@veta_chan

Protesters set fire at Nathan Road near Mong Kok Police Station. Police fired multiple shots of tear gas

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Hong Kong Stream@hkstream

Protesters rush away from a section of Nathan Road after the water cannon truck fires blue liquid. Some have hit reporters. pic.twitter.com/R2kGnotpVt via HongKongFP

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Protestors targeted hundreds of shops and even damaged Chinese banks.

Carl Zha@CarlZha

protesters set a store on fire at Chong Hong Square just now

109 people are talking about this

This weekend’s violence is due to pro-democracy leader Jimmy Sham, who was attacked earlier in the week, which left him in critical condition in the hospital.

Bloomberg TicToc

@tictoc

Here’s the moment when Hong Kong activist Jimmy Sham () was taken to the hospital with bloody head injuries.

The organizer was attacked by men wielding hammers on Wednesday night

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As protestors continue to battle police into the overnight, road barriers have been set on fire, and stores are being trashed in several Kowloon districts, said police.

Reuters spoke with a protestor who said the government is now denying demonstration permits to prevent demonstrations from growing in size.

 “The government pretends we just want to destroy the city. We’ll be out for as long as it takes to let the world know it is them who are destroying it,” a demonstrator named Ray told Reuters.

Violent protests began over the summer when Hong Kong proposed a new law that would allow Beijing to extradited criminals to mainland China.

Hongkongers take pride in their legal system and personal freedoms, which is dramatically different than communist China.

China has shown in recent years that it seeks greater control over Hong Kong.

The extradition bill was scrapped in early September, but that hasn’t stopped violent demonstrations into fall.

Protesters view Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam as an agent of Beijing and will likely not stop protesting until she is removed from power.

And to make things more complicated in the days ahead, US lawmakers late last week sent a clear message to Beijing that it will support protestors via a new bill.

While Hong Kong burns this weekend, so is Santiago, Chile; so is Barcelona, Spain, and there are even climate change protests that are starting to get out of control throughout Europe.

Catman Mao@MiauTse

The world is on fire…. protestas y violencia en Hong Kong, Barcelona, Chile, Culiacan, Ecuador, Syria, London, Honduras, Lebanon, and Palestine. Is this shit going viral yet?

ɴᴏᴏr@nxpapillon

There’s so much chaos in the world right now. Violent protests in Chile, Lebanon, hong kong and azerbaijan, buildings and tree on fire, the Kashmir curfew and probably many more things that we aren’t even aware of. I don’t even know what to say. It’s just really sad.

Populism is sweeping across the world, and a lot of this anger and frustration with young people is due to flawed monetary policy by central banks that have produced the widest wealth gap in the history of the world.

It’s only a matter of time before US millennials figure this out, they too will be marching in the streets once they know the truth as to why they only have a shitty gig-economy job, no savings, and insurmountable student debt.

end
CHINA/USA/Sunday 
China’s top trade negotiator agrees with Trump that the two have made substantial progress in their first part of a trade deal
(zerohedge)

China’s Top Trade Negotiator Sides With Trump: We “Have Made Substantial Progress” In Trade Deal 

Confirming a late Friday leak from Global Times’ editor Hu Xijin…

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Based on what I know, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will make authoritative interpretation on progress of China-US trade talks from China’s perspective in his speech at the 2019 World Conference on VR Industry today.

… on Saturday, China’s Vice Premier and top trade negotiator, Liu He, spoke to a technology conference audience and for the first time adopted the position represented by the Trump administration for over a week, namely that last Friday’s “Phase 1” of the deal represented “substantial progress in many fields” and laid “an important foundation for the signing of a phased agreement.”

“Stopping the escalation of the trade war benefits China, the U.S., and the whole world. It’s what producers and consumers alike are hoping for,” he added.

For China, which has been radio silent in its interpretation of last Friday’s trade announcement, this represented the first formal admission that trade talks are, in fact, going well.

Alpert7@Alpertcr7

Vice Premier of China, Liu He, visited @htcvive stand in 2019 VR/AR product and application exhibition today. @CherWang presented the latest headset and the future 5G/VR strategy.@AGraylin @HTC_de @fabnapp

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

China and the U.S. reached some form of understanding in meetings last week that could end a trade war that has roiled the global economy in the previous 15 months.

President Trump has frequently touted how China will start buying $50 billion worth of U.S. agriculture products, though, we reported on Saturday morning that traders had seen no such purchases yet.

As described previously, the “phase one” deal isn’t a trade deal, it’s akin more to a “farm package.” Furthermore, “phase one” doesn’t address more significant issues such as forced technology transfers and industrial subsidies.

That said, as Bloomberg noted, Liu didn’t address specifics about the trade talks in his speech. Instead, the vice premier said China would expand investments in core technologies to ensure the economic restructuring of the economy was stable, adding that economic activity in the year ahead is “very bright.”

“We’re not worried about short-term economic volatility. We have every confidence in our ability to meet macroeconomic targets for the year,” he said.

As reported on Friday, ahead of the latest round of talks, President Trump’s top economic advisors and industry experts warned him of an economic downturn if a further escalation in the trade war is seen by 2020. As such, it is likely that a  lite trade deal could be on the table next month.

But as our readers have recently learned, the trade war didn’t start the synchronized global downturn, which has been almost entirely a function of China’s clogged up credit impulse…

… so any deal – lite or otherwise – won’t result in an immediate acceleration of global growth; indeed, as some speculate, failure to observe a substantial economic rebound following a “deal” could well mark the point when central banks and governments finally throw in the towel, as they finally usher in the final lap in the global race to debase destroy fiat currencies and hyperinflate away the debt: MMT and Helicopter Money.

END
China/Brazil
I thought that China was going to buy a boatload of soybeans from the uSA
(zerohedge)

China Buying Boatloads Of Soybeans From Brazil After US Trade Talks

China ramped up Soybean purchases from Brazil last week, despite President Trump showboating a potential $50 billion agriculture deal with Beijing.

Multiple traders told Reuters that Brazilian soybeans are more appealing to commercial importers, especially ones from China, who are looking for deep discounts.

As of last week, Beijing hasn’t lifted 25% tariffs on US soybeans nor granted new waivers to state-owned businesses, indicating that China isn’t r

U.S. vs. Brazil (Market share of China’s total soybean imports)

View image on Twitter

eady to buy US agriculture products, as of late October.

China typically sources most of its soybeans from the US between October and January, then from South American countries in early 1Q. But this year, according to traders, as the trade war continues to escalate to the point of return, China is abandoning US markets despite positive sentiment from President Trump’s tweets.

 

Since Monday, traders said China purchased eight bulk carrier cargoes of soybeans from Brazil, or about 480,000 tons, worth $173 million.

Brazil is China’s top soybean supplier, and Reuters made an interesting point, “large purchases from South America are unusual at this time of year with the US harvest coming in.” Translation: China isn’t buying US soybeans, so President Trump’s tweets about agriculture purchases are meaningless at the moment and are only used to calm fears of Midwest/Central US farmers.

President Trump and his administration spent several weeks pumping headlines through different wirehouses and even on Twitter, about a breakthrough deal and massive agriculture purchases China was performing.

Three US soybean exporters told Reuters that China logged zero sales with the US last week, along with no transactions at the USDA.

“I’ve not had any inquiries at all for US (shipments),” said one of the US soybean exporters. “There were a few November boats bought from Brazil and several new-crop South American boats for March forward but nothing here.”

Another US exporter said a drop in Brazilian soybean prices triggered boatloads of new purchases by China last week.

Chinese state-owned firms COFCO and Sinograin, which are exempt from US tariffs, have no intention of purchasing US soybeans unless spot prices drop, said one of the exporters.

After the Trump administration spent several weeks pumping the stock market on headlines describing China repurchasing soybeans, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Thursday finally admitted that for China to buy $50 billion worth of US agriculture good, it would depend on spot prices.

On Tuesday, China said that it would struggle to buy $50 billion of US agriculture products if the Trump administration doesn’t remove retaliatory tariffs on some products. Something that President Trump cannot afford to do because it would allow China to continue its ascension as a global superpower.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

SPAIN/CATALONIA/FRIDAY NIGHT..

Catalonia in chaos as 500,000 march and shut down Barcelona

(zerohedge

 

Military Police Deployed As 500,000 Catalan Independence Protesters Shut Down Barcelona

Central Barcelona has reportedly been paralyzed as mass protests which international reports estimate to number over a half-million people are driven by outrage at harsh prison sentences for pro-independence leaders handed down by the top Spanish court. 

Protest leaders are vowing “the streets will be ours”as they push for Catalan independence, and as riot police have begun clashing with stone-throwing activists, who are also in some places of the city setting makeshift roadblocks ablaze.

 

Pro-Catalan independence protesters near the police headquarters in Barcelona on Friday, via the AFP.

With night fall, reporters on the ground are describing what’s beginning to resemble a war zone, with increasing violence against police, as also both far-left and far-right agitators are said to be infiltrating the crowd and engaged in increasing violence and vandalism.

 

The turmoil began Monday after Spain’s Supreme Court handed out extreme prison sentences to nine politicianswho spearheaded the referendum on Catalonia’s independence in 2017.

 

Protesters blocked at least 20 major roadways Friday, via Sky News.

They were given a whopping 13 years behind bars for what amounts to pro-independence activism, but which Madrid sees as an “illegal” secession attempt which undermined the state.

Though protests started out relatively minor by some student groups, a mass body of people began marching from various parts of Catalonia earlier in the week, and then began inundating Barcelona starting at about noon on Friday, resulting in absolute gridlock.

In total about five separate marches converged at once on the city, also amid a general strike in solidarity with the jailed activists.

Òmnium International

@OmniumIntl

Five , coming from every corner of Catalonia, have arrived today in Barcelona to protest against the unjust imprisonment of the Catalan leaders. Later in the day, a mass demonstration has taken place in the city center. Free them all

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Acting Spanish Prime Minster Pedro Sanchez warned those inciting riots and violence would face the swift justice of security forces: “There is no space for impunity in relation to the serious acts of violence we have witnessed over recent days in different cities in Catalonia,” he said.

Indeed it appears the state’s response is set to escalate, give at the end of the week of unrest Spain’s civil guard is to be deployed in Barcelona, Madrid authorities have announced. The civil guard is essentially a militarized police force which has authority to deploy across the whole country.

 

Protesters clashed with riot police in central Barcelona, via Sky News.

Meanwhile, demonstrators were said to have blocked at least 20 major roads in and around Barcelona, also causing a much anticipated soccer match between Spanish rivals Barcelona and Real Madrid to be postponed.

Robin Rooth 🎗@SoCal_CAT

.
5th day of protests against an oppressive Spain that charges against its own civilians in Catalonia.

Someone PLEASE tell me why the police needs to do this against peaceful protesters.
Europe, open your eyes!!!

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Throughout Friday about 100 people were reported injured as the protests spread throughout the northeast region, a number expected to grow.

 

Map via BBC

Home to about 7.5 million people, the wealthy and linguistically distinct Catalonia region has its own parliament and flag; however, Catalan nationalists have long complained Madrid over-taxes the region for the sake of Spain’s poorer regions and cities.

END
UK

Pound Tumbles 1% In Weekend Markets After Brexit Vote Delayed

With Boris Johnson’s plan to pass the Brexit vote this weekend unexpectedly rejected, after the Prime Minister was once again let down by a Parliamentary majority demanding the vote be delayed, cable has predictably tumbled, and after spiking as high as 1.2967 on Friday amid rampant speculation that a passage of the Brexit deal was virtually assured, which prompted a violent short squeeze, moments ago UK spread betting company IG noted that cable has tumbled over 120 pips…

… sliding as low as 1.2809/1.2839 in weekend trading.

IGSquawk

@IGSquawk

Boris now has until midnight to request an extension as per S. 1(4) of the Benn act: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2019/26/enacted  12836 -1.02%

Ironically, with pound positioning having been massively short until very recently, when a historic squeeze flipped the net speculator balance bullish in recent days, absent a viable resolution and some clear path forward that does not involve a legal challenge, the odds of a no deal Brexit hitting on Oct 31 are once again all too real, and the result will be a violent reversal as shorts once again flood the pair…

… sending cable sharply lower when trading resumes late on Sunday.

END

UK/Saturday

UK parliament votes to delay decision on Brexit

Chaos: In Latest Humiliation For PM Johnson, UK Parliament Votes To Delay Decision On Brexit Deal

In a historic Saturday session for UK parliament, the first since the Falklands war, today British lawmakers were supposed to vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal which last week received approval from the EU, and which sent the pound soaring amid speculation that a Brexit deal was actually close to passing. Instead, in the latest embarrassment to Johnson, moments ago UK lawmakers instead voted to put off a decision on the Prime Minister’s deal, forcing him to ask the EU for another Brexit delay.

The measure, also known, as the Letwin amendment, was proposed by Oliver Letwin, an MP who was booted out of the Conservative parliamentary party last month by Boris Johnson when he supported anti no-deal legislation known as the Benn Act. The amendment – which received the support of the Northern Irish DUP party in the last minute – called for the House to “withhold support” from Johnson’s plan until all of the legislation required to implement the bill is passed by Parliament as well.

And so with DUP support, the measure passed 322 to 306 effectively freezing the Brexit process once again, as Johnson is now legally obliged to request a Brexit extension from the EU if he can’t pass his plan by 11 p.m. local time tonight (6 p.m. ET), which he can’t.

BBC Politics

@BBCPolitics

MPs approve Letwin amendment to the Brexit deal

This amendment delays approval of the deal until the necessary legislation is passed

Ayes: 322
Noes: 306
Majority: 16

Live updates: http://bbc.in/2MvI6ER

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Having just come back from Europe – ostensibly with a deal in tow and with Belgium saying no more delays are feasible – Boris Johnson will now have to once again ask the EU to delay the Brexit process.

Perhaps not surprisingly, a defiant Johnson has struck back and is now refusing to comply with the latest parliamentary vote, and the Prime Minister’s office is now saying that “Parliament has voted to delay brexit yet again. The PM will not ask for an extension – he will tell EU leaders there should be no delays, they should reject Parliament’s letter asking for a delay, and we should get Brexit done on October 31 with our new deal.”

BBC Breaking News

@BBCBreaking

In new setback for Boris Johnson, MPs back move to delay Brexit deal until necessary legislation passed https://bbc.in/2BsY2Bj

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BBC Breaking News

@BBCBreaking

Boris Johnson says the opportunity to have a meaningful Brexit vote “has been passed up”

UK PM says he’s not “daunted or dismayed” by MPs backing Letwin amendment, saying he “will not negotiate a delay to Brexit”https://bbc.in/2MvI6ER

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Metro

@MetroUK

Boris Johnson remains defiant after MPs back Brexit deal delay!https://trib.al/88GX3cD

MPs vote for Letwin amendment forcing Boris to delay Brexit

Metro.co.uk: News, Sport, Showbiz, Celebrities from Metro

metro.co.uk

As ITV’s Robert Peston notes, “BorisJohnson ⁩ will characterise the request for a three-month Brexit delay as coming from parliament, not from him as government head. And he will reiterate to EU leaders that he does not want a delay” with questions emerging if this is legal.

Robert Peston

@Peston

Downing St makes clear that ⁦@BorisJohnson⁩ will characterise the request for a three-month Brexit delay as coming from parliament, not from him as government head. And he will reiterate to EU leaders that he does not want a delay. Is this lawful? The Court of Session…

View image on Twitter

As the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg adds, now that today’s deal vote has been iced, BoJo confirms next week the government will put the bill of the whole deal in front of MPs – and confirms that he will make clear that he will still try to avoid delay, even tho he is legally obliged to ask for one, something the BBC reporter calls a “legal tightrope.”

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

No 10 “Parliament has voted to delay brexit yet again. The PM will not ask for an extension – he will tell EU leaders there should be no delays, they should reject Parliament’s letter asking for a delay, and we should get Brexit done on October 31 with our new deal”

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

PM confirms next week govt will put the bill of the whole deal in front of MPs – and confirms that he will make clear that he will still try to avoid delay, even tho he is legally obliged to ask for one – legal tightrope

And so, once again the legal wrangling begins:

There is going to be a lot of arguing over what the difference is between asking for a delay and actually negotiating one – Benn Act is not explicit about negotiation but there is important principle at stake of not frustrating the law

Meanwhile, the fate of Brexit has been tossed back into the arms of the EU, who now have to decide if to accept the UK parliament’s demand for a delay…

Mina Andreeva

@Mina_Andreeva

🇪🇺🇬🇧 @EU_Commission takes note of the vote in the House of Commons today on the so-called Amendment meaning that the itself was not put to vote today. It will be for the UK government to inform us about the next steps as soon as possible.

… even as a UK court will likely have to opine on whether BoJo can once again ignore the decision of parliament…

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

There is going to be a lot of arguing over what the difference is between asking for a delay and actually negotiating one – Benn Act is not explicit about negotiation but there is important principle at stake of not frustrating the law

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

But don’t all scream at once, No 10 still thinks that they can try to find a way round it – as was always the case wouldn’t be surprised if this all ended up back in court before too long…

… even as the Conservative party appears to have just walked out…

norman smith

@BBCNormanS

Tory benches have now emptied…..

View image on Twitter

… as the usual Brexit chaos has returned.

END

MONDAY MORNING/UK

Pound rallies as BoJo pushes for a monday vote on the Brexit deal.

(zerohedge)

Pound Rallies As Johnson Pushes For Monday Vote On Brexit Deal

After MPs voted on Saturday to delay a vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, forcing Johnson to ask the EU for another delay, the PM is preparing to try again on Monday and put the deal to another vote in the House of Commons in an attempt to win lawmakers’ support for the deal he struck with the EUBloomberg reports.

The pound rallied on Monday, breaking above $1.30, amid growing optimism that Johnson had enough support to push his agreement through the Commons. The currency has struggled to break above $1.30, leaving it vulnerable to a selloff.

Johnson’s plan to hold a second vote could founder should Commons Speaker John Bercow decide to rule against the PM and claim the vote cannot go forward due to procedural rules. The speaker, who is preparing to leave his position in the not-too-distant future, could decide not to allow the vote because it amounts to asking the Commons to vote on the same question twice in the same session, in violation of parliamentary rules (the arcane rules of the UK’s parliament have played an important role so far during the Brexit process).

The government announced early on Monday that it would move ahead with the second vote so long as Bercow permitted it, and so long as amendments weren’t attached to the bill to render it meaningless. If MPs vote for an amendment calling for the UK to remain in the EU customs union, the government will also pull the vote.

In one possible explanation for holding the vote so soon, the cabinet said it now has the backing of the 320 MPs needed to win a vote on approving Johnson’s Brexit deal.

Gordon Rayner

@gordonrayner

Brexit latest:
– No10 will pull today’s meaningful vote if Bercow allows any amendments
– Govt likely to scrap attempt to get Brexit deal through Parliament if MPs vote for customs union amendment tomorrow
– General election could then follow by end of Nov

endJohnson received a boost when former cabinet minister Amber Rudd, who left the government and the Tory party in protest at the expulsion of 21 colleagues last month. She said that many of those who were expelled from the Tories ranks were ready to cooperate with the PM.

The PM also has the backing of a small number of Labour MPs, though it might be difficult for him to win over too many more.

Meanwhile, the DUP’s 10 votes made the difference between defeat and victory for Johnson on Saturday, and there’s no indication that the party is softening in its position.

end
As expected Bercow blocks new vote on Johnson’s Brexit deal
(zerohedge)

UK Parliament Speaker Bercow Blocks New Vote On Johnson’s Brexit Deal

With cable reversing all weekend losses, and spiking overnight on “optimism” that a Brexit vote could be held as soon as today, moments ago House of Commons speaker John Bercow, as expected,  blocked the government’s bid to hold a meaningful vote, thwarting Boris Johnson in his latest attempt to put his Brexit deal to a fresh vote in Parliament after suffering a defeat for his strategy on Saturday.

Sky News

@SkyNews

BREAKING: Commons Speaker John Bercow blocks a bid for a ‘meaningful vote’ on @BorisJohnson‘s deal today.

“Today’s circumstances are the same in substance as Saturday’s,” he says.

Follow live updates here 👉 http://po.st/6sXJHD

Embedded video

In rejecting BoJo’s submission for a meaningful vote Monday, notorious Bremainer Bercow cited a parliamentary rule dating back to 1604 under which the government cannot repeatedly ask Parliament to vote on the exact same motion.

“It is clear that the motions are in substance the same,” Bercow said. “My ruling is therefore that the motion will not be debated today as it would be repetitive and disorderly to do so.”

While cable rebounded earlier on hopes of a substantial vote to be held today, it has failed to slide, and traded just shy of the key 1.3000 level …

… perhaps because on Sunday, ministers said the government has enough support in Parliament to get Johnson’s Brexit deal ratified. They may be in for a major surprise as the one thing UK parliament has demonstrated, is it is completely unpredictable.

So what matters: Well, the Withdrawal Agreement Bill is set to be introduced in full later today (around 18:00 BST), and voting on the bill will begin tomorrow.

 end
Germany/Deutsche Bank
More layoffs are planned for this bankrupt company
(zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Planning Mass Layoffs To Its Once Iconic Rates Unit

So much for Deutsche Bank’s once legendary fixed income division being insulated from the unprecedented layoffs sweeping across the bank.

Months after unveiling that double-digit percent of its equity-linked employees will be let go as part of an ongoing restructuring that has left the largest German bank looking like a pale shadow of its former self, Bloomberg reports that Deutsche Bank is now also considering “substantial cuts” to the unit that trades interest-rate securities, a division that survived unscathed the mass layoffs announced as part of the lender’s sweeping revamp in July.

CEO Christian Sewing has concluded that it’s possible to cut enough of the associated technology costs to outweigh the loss in revenue, Bloomberg sources report, adding that the bank will likely cut a low double-digit percentage of jobs at the business.

“We are committed to a robust and broad-based rates platform, and are investing in areas of our rates business where we see opportunities to grow our client franchise,” DB spokesman Charlie Olivier told Bloomberg.

As a reminder, in early July we reported that the German megabank with trillions in derivative exposure unveiled a sweeping restructuring plan centered on pulling back from equities trading and cutting a fifth of the workforce. The lender said at the time that it wants to remain a “leading bank” in fixed-income trading, its traditional strength, but it soon became clear that adjustments were needed there, too.

Sure enough, the Frankfurt-based bank is currently putting the finishing touches on its review of the fixed-income division which has struggled with low profitability for some time, and findings could be presented at the bank’s investor day in December.

In rates trading, investors buy and sell products such as government bonds and derivatives to profit or protect themselves from macroeconomic developments that affect interest rates. It’s distinct from credit trading, where participants buy and sell debts and derivatives to wager on a company’s ability to repay loans.

As Bloomberg further adds, the rates business, which is headed by Kemal Askar, falls into many different geographic regions – including the U.S. – and includes a range of products – such as options or swaps: “Pulling out of any one of them only makes sense if the bank can eliminate associated costs of information technology.”

“We are a significant player in rates, but rates is an area where we need to refashion the business model to make it more profitable and do so against the resources that we have there,” Chief Financial Officer James von Moltke said last month.

And as DB admits that no sacred cows are left, we expect that once the bank fires thousands in “rates” employees, then credit – the final frontier – will be next, as the bank – having no other options – is forced to target the costs of its most expensive division. Alas, the best traders there will hardly wait for the hammer to fall, and we expect an exodus of DB fixed income traders and analysts to ensue, as the division that once made Deutsche Bank the most respected bank on Wall Street, is dismantled.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

LEBANON

Protests galore in Beirut as the Government there tries to introduce a tax of $6.00 on the What’s Up app.

(zerohedge)

‘Whats App Revolution’ Protests In Lebanon Turn Violent With Fires, Road Blocks; Multiple Dead & Wounded

Lebanon erupted in large-scale ‘Arab Spring’ style protests starting Thursday night into Friday, marked by number of massive fires and makeshift roadblocks which could be seen going up in Beirut, in what international reports are calling the biggest cross-sectarian anti-government uprising in years. At least two bystanders have died, one protester killed, and over 60 police wounded. 

The protests were reportedly triggered based on the announcement of a legislative bill to tax people $6 a month for using the popular What App messaging platform, but have grown into broader demands that political leaders step aside over the country’s worsening economic crisis and lack of jobs.

 

Protests outside Beirut, via AFP/Getty/CNN

For this reason Lebanese daily al-Akhbar dubbed the protests “the WhatsApp revolution” and with others calling it “a tax intifada”. Chants could be heard in Arabic of “the people want the downfall of the regime” from crowds described as containing a broad cross-section of Lebanese society, whether Christian, Sunni or Shia.

Police clashed with thousands of demonstrators in Beirut throughout Friday who lit tires on fire and in some cases charged government buildings and damaged shop-fronts.

Al Jazeera English

@AJEnglish

“We’re not here over WhatsApp – we’re here over everything, fuel, food, bread, everything.”

Thousands have taken to the streets in Lebanon as anger grows over gov’t tax plans amid an economic crisis in the country

Embedded video

Multiple reports have put Lebanese unemployment among those aged under 35 at a staggering 37%.

At the same time Lebanese political leaders have been broadly accused of dipping into public coffers to enrich themselves and entrench their positions.

Tensions were already high when on Thursday a government minister revealed a plan to boost state revenues with a daily tax rate on calls made via voice over internet protocol (VoIP), utilized by applications such as Facebook-owned WhatsApp.

Ali@Ali_Kourani

Beirut, Baalbek, Tripoli, Saida. Historical night.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

The country has also lately suffered a severe slowdown in capital flows, and difficulty of importers securing dollars at the pegged exchange rate. Prime Minister Saad Hariri is expected to address the crisis Friday in a televised speech.

Steven nabil

@thestevennabil

Female protester trying to stop a minster’s body guard from using his weapon

Embedded video

Currently multiple main routes through the Lebanese capital have been shutdown due to makeshift roadblocks, as clashes with police continue, and with roads accessing Lebanon’s main international airport also blocked.

Police have deployed tear gas and other riot control measures against crowds described in the tens of thousands.

Luna Safwan – لونا صفوان

@LunaSafwan

Only in !

View image on Twitter

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported Friday that two foreign workers died from spoke inhalation after protesters set large fires, and 60 members of Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces (ISF) have been wounded.

Reuters has also reported the first protester’s death in clashes with police, which happened in the northern city of Tripoli, the country’s second largest.

هادي نصرالله@HadiNasrallah

Live from Beirut, Lebanon in the anti-government protests that were triggered by an absurd government attempt to add taxes to WhatsApp!

Lebanese forces fired tear gas on the Lebanese civilians protesting corruption.

The Lebanese regime lost its legitimacy.

Stay strong Lebanon

Embedded video

According to the Reuters report:

Across the country, they chanted for top leaders, including President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to step down.

The mood was a mixture of rage, defiance and hope.

A security source said one protester was killed and four wounded after the bodyguards of a former member of parliament fired into the air in the northern city of Tripoli.

benwedeman

@bencnn

Riyadh Al-Solh Square, Beirut. Numbers growing by the minute, chanting for revolution.

Embedded video

Security authorities have condemned what they called “chaos and violence” unleashed on the streets and urged calm.

END
TURKEY/CHINA//
There is now no question that Turkey has been bailed out by China as they advanced $3,6 billion dollars and that has kept the Turkish rate below 6.00 to one. The author discusses a huge development inside Turkey whereby Turkish women not only refuse to have children but also refuse to get married.  The drop in marriage in both Istanbul and Ankara is unbelievable (Between 2001-2015 a huge drop of greater than 30% in Istanbul and 40% in Ankara)
(Spengler/Asia Times)

China’s $3.6 Billion Bailout Insulates Turkey From US

Authored by ‘Spengler’ via The Asia Times,

Beijing’s biggest support package ever for President Erdogan arrives at a critical time…

Despite the US threat to “obliterate and destroy” Turkey’s economy, the Turkish lira and Turkish interest rates barely have budged in the past week (Turkish stocks, especially banks, are down sharply, in part due to the US criminal charges against Halkbank for aiding Iran sanctions violations). That is remarkable given the fragility of Turkey’s currency earlier in 2019. Between February and May, the Turkish lira fell from 5.2 to the US dollar to 6.2 in response to US sanctions, before recovering to 5.88 to the dollar today. The Turkish central bank leaned on Turkish banks to refrain from offering liquidity to short-sellers, but Turkish money markets remained orderly.

What changed is China. Turkish President Erdogan’s insolence in the face of American threats brings to mind B’rer Rabbit’s imprecation to B’rer Fox: “Please don’t throw me in the briar patch.” The relevant foliage in this case is bamboo.

“Please don’t throw me in the briar patch.”

Bloomberg News reported Aug. 9, “China’s central bank transferred $1 billion worth of funds to Turkey in June, Beijing’s biggest support package ever for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered at a critical time in an election month. The inflow marks the first time Turkey received such a substantial amount under the lira-yuan swap agreement with Beijing that dates back to 2012, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public.”

China’s direct investment in Turkey also has surged this year, as Nikkei reported Aug. 22:

China is coming to Turkey’s aid during its economic crisis with $3.6 billion in funding for infrastructure projects, leveraging Ankara’s conflict with Washington to expand its Belt and Road Initiative in the key country that links Asia with Europe.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Aug. 11 that his country was preparing to trade through national currencies with partners like China, bypassing the US dollar. The US placed additional tariffs on Turkey the next day as a feud simmered over the imprisonment of a US pastor accused of being involved in the 2016 coup attempt against the Turkish leader.

The lira then hit about 7 per dollar, a drop of more than 40% since the beginning of the year. Spurned by one of the world’s economic giants, Erdogan naturally turned to another, China, for much-needed financial backup.

American policymakers should have their eyes checked for cataracts; they appear unable to keep the whole of the world map in view. This was eminently predictable. In August 2018 I warned  in Asia Times that “China will buy Turkey on the cheap.”

China has had its issues with Turkey’s volatile and ambitious leader, to be sure. Turkey in the past styled itself the protector of China’s Uyghur minority, some 15 million Muslims who speak a dialect of Turkish and live mainly in China’s Xinjiang Province. China reportedly has incarcerated between 1 and 2 million Uyghurs in “re-education camps” where they are forced to learn Chinese culture to the detriment of their Islamic identity. Erdogan in the past had accused China of “genocide” against the Uyghurs. After the Chinese bailout, however, Erdogan declared that the Uyghurs are “living happily” in China.

Turkey has changed from Ataturk to Rent-A-Turk. China likes to keep its friends close and its enemies closer. China built the Great Wall to repel Turkic invasions, among others, and warred with nomadic peoples on its borders for centuries. Now Beijing believes that its $2 trillion Belt and Road Initiative will assimilate the Turkic peoples of Central Asia into its sphere of economic influence. The Turkic countries seem eager to sign up.

The Azerbaijan news site Trend reported Oct. 15:

The Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (CCTS-Turkic Council) will strengthen in the coming period and will become an important center of power in the world, Professor Naciye Selin Senocak, the head of the cultural diplomacy department at the Institute for European Studies in Brussels and head of the center for Diplomatic and Strategic Studies (CEDS) in Paris, told Trend.

Senocak said that the 7th CCTS Summit in Baku is a significant event and undoubtedly will go down in history. The Turkish professor noted that the Turkic World covers a vast territory, from the Adriatic Sea to China, where about 300 million Turks live. Senocak said that the decision made by Uzbekistan to join the CCTS, as well as opening a representative office of the Council in the center of Europe-Hungary, indicate the importance and the growing role of this structure.

“In the new world order, where the control axis is shifting to Asia, CCTS will play an important role,” the Turkish professor noted. The representative of the Institute for European Studies added that CCTS will continue to develop and strengthen economically, politically and socially with the help of the One Belt One Road initiative, which will include other Eurasian countries.

Erdogan’s long-term problem is that there aren’t enough Turks in Turkey. Turkey’s Kurdish citizens continue to have three or four children while ethnic Turks have fewer than two. By the early 2040s, most of Turkey’s young people will come from Kurdish-speaking homes. The Kurdish-majority Southeast threatens to break away.

In 2016, I reviewed Turkey’s 2015 census data in Asia Times. It shows that the demographic scissors between Kurds and Turks continue to widen. Despite Erdogan’s exhortations on behalf of Turkish fertility, the baby bust in Turkish-majority provinces continues while Kurds sustain one of the world’s highest birth rates. Even worse, the marriage rate outside of the Kurdish Southeast of the country has collapsed, portending even lower fertility in the future.

According to Turkstat, the official statistics agencies, the Turkish provinces with the lowest fertility rates all cluster in the north and northwest of the country, where women on average have only 1.5 children. The southeastern provinces show fertility rates ranging between 3.2 and 4.2 children per female.

Even more alarming are Turkey’s marriage statistics as reported by Turkstat. Between 2001 and 2015, the number of marriages in Istanbul, the country’s largest city, fell by more than 30%, and by more than 40% in the capital Ankara. Most of the northern and northwestern provinces report a decline of more than half in the number of marriages. Not only are Turkish women refusing to have children; they are refusing to get married. The plunge in the marriage rate among ethnic Turks makes a further sharp decline in fertility inevitable.

Erdogan fears the Kurdish role in Turkey’s Northeast as a magnet for Turkey’s own restive Kurds, and wants to pre-empt the expansion of Turkish self-rule from its base in neighboring Iraq. That is the object of his ethnic cleansing campaign against Syria’s Kurds. In the long run, Erdogan hopes to lead a coalition of Turkic countries within the greater Chinese sphere of influence.

That doesn’t mean that Erdogan is a strong horse. He’s a draught horse, hitched to a Chinese wagon.

 end
TURKEY/SYRIA/USA/KURDS/Sunday
Erdogan vows to crash the heads of the Kurds if they do not withdraw
(zerohedge)

Erdogan Vows To ‘Crush Heads’ Of Kurds If They Don’t Withdraw 

We noted previously that chances are high that by the time Trump and Erdogan meet for their planned summit in Washington on Nov. 13, the ceasefire deal in northern Syria brokered by Pence and Pompeo on behalf of the White House is likely to be in complete tatters and all but dead.

With already the Syrian Kurds and Turkish forces accusing the other of violating the truce, including charges of chemical and banned weapons use, President Erdogan over the weekend said he’s ready to order a resumed offensive if all Kurdish don’t withdraw by this coming Tuesday night, which marks the close of the initial 120-hour truce agreement. A further or permanent ceasefire was conditioned on the 5-day “pause” being observed.

“The 120-hour pause on operations will end Tuesday night, we will continue crushing heads of terrorists if they don’t withdraw by then,” Erdogan told a political rally in the central Anatolian city of Kayseri on Saturday, according to Bloomberg.

 

Turkish tank along the border with Syria, via Reuters. 

This after one of Turkey’s soldiers was reported killed during a breach of the ceasefire, according to Turkish official sources.

Kurdish YPG forces charged Turkey with blocking the evacuation of their dead and wounded, while Turkish troops claimed to have come under fire some 20 times in what would be a violation of the agreement.

Following Thursday’s deal, the result of some four hours of meetings between the US vice president and Turkey’s leader, the White House cautioned that the reality of a complete pause in fighting could take a little time to implement.

But perhaps the more important deal-making is set to occur with Moscow, as Erdogan and Putin are set to meet this upcoming week to discuss the rapidly developing events in Syria. Currently Russian troops have filled the power vacuum left in the wake of the rapid Pentagon draw down from border towns in northeast Syria.

“There are regime forces under Russian protection in parts of our operation area. We will discuss it with Putin. We’ve to find a solution,” Erdogan said Saturday.

Indeed whatever comes out of meeting with Putin is likely to set the final trajectory which could bring the fighting to a close.

END
TURKEY SYRIA/USA/MONDAY
Turkey warns the Syrian Kurds to get out of their 75 mile strip as they will attack them if still in that zone
(zeorhedge)

“We Have Hours Left”: Turki

sh Ceasefire On Edge Of Collapse As Erdogan Gives Kurds Hours To Flee Territory

The Turkish lira has started to slide again…

.. as last week’s ceasefire between Turkey, northern Syria and its Kurdish inhabitants – which has just over 24 hours to go – now appears in jeopardy.

On Monday, Turkey gave Kurdish fighters until Tuesday night to leave a narrow strip of territory in northeastern Syria or face becoming targets, setting aside its demand for the militia to withdraw from a much larger “safe zone.”

“We have hours left,” Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told a forum organized by state-run TRTWorld television in Istanbul on Monday. “If they don’t withdraw, our operation will start. This is our agreement with the U.S.”

As Bloomberg notes, citing a senior Turkish military official said, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces must exit the 120-kilometer (75-mile) area between the Syrian border towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn by 10 p.m. local time on Tuesday. While Turkey still wants the Kurds to withdraw from a swath of frontier territory more than 440 km long and 32 km deep, it recognizes that won’t happen before the expiry of a 120-hour truce negotiated by the U.S. last week, said the official who also ruled out any extension of the deadline for withdrawal from a 120-kilometer long frontier.

The clarification over the parameters of the truce on Monday followed threats by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to restart the offensive if the militants do not pull back from the area.

Turkey’s immediate goal is to clear the 120-kilometer strip and so far 125 vehicles have left the area and that the effort to implement the deal was closely coordinated with the U.S., the official said, adding that Turkey plans to set up observation points, including combat units, in the area; he also said that control over the 120- kilometer strip would belong to the Turkish Air Force but that it would take time to fully make sure that the area is cleared from the militants.

Separately, Turkish president Erdogan is due to travel to Sochi on Tuesday for talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin that will likely dictate what happens next. With the departure of US forces, Russia has become the sole  major influencer in Syria since its military intervened to help win the civil war in favor of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

As Bloomberg notes, Russia has been favoring direct contacts between Turkey and Syria based on a 1998 security accord, though there are no plans for such talks during Erdogan’s visit to Sochi on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tells reporters at news conference with Bulgarian counterpart Ekaterina Zaharieva.

* * *

Meanwhile, as the US withdraws from northern Syria, the WSJ reports that civilians in Kurdish areas hurled rotten fruit and insults at a convoy of U.S. military vehicles that crossed from northern Syria into Iraq early Monday, marking “a dramatic drawdown to an American presence there to combat Islamic State.”

A Wall Street Journal reporter saw around a dozen armored vehicles on the road near Sheikhan in northern Iraq flying American flags. Stony-faced U.S. soldiers flashed victory signs for the camera. They appeared to be part of a larger convoy that passed through the town of Duhok about 37 miles from the Syrian border earlier Monday. A witness there heard onlookers in the predominantly Kurdish city curse the soldiers. One man called them “sons of bitches” and shouted at them to get out, he said.

 

A convoy of U.S. vehicles at the Iraqi-Syrian border crossing on the outskirts of Duhok, Iraq

The US withdrawal has been seen as a historic betrayal by the Kurds, who partnered with U.S. troops in Syria to fight Islamic State. The U.S. presence had served as a buffer against Turkey, which regards the Kurdish fighters as terrorists.

Fear not though: instead of withdrawing, it now appears that US troops are merely relocating to neighbor Iraq, where the US already has around 5,000 troops in Iraq, many of whom are based in the western province of Anbar.

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said late Saturday that all of the roughly 1,000 U.S. troops ordered to leave northeastern Syria would be redeployed to western Iraq and conduct operations against the Islamic State extremist group from there.

American troops are leaving Syria via helicopters, planes and ground convoys, a process that will be completed within weeks, Esper said. He didn’t say where precisely those troops would go.

end

TURKEY/SYRIA

Syria and Turkey now engage in secret negotiations to avert a war

(zerohedge)_

Turkey, Syria Engage In Secret Negotiations To Avert War: Report

Turkey and Syria are conducting previously-unknown negotiations in an attempt to avert direct conflict in northeast Syria in the wake of a US withdrawal from the region, according to the Jerusalem Post, citing Turkish officials.

 

Smoke rises over the Syrian town of Ras al Ain, as seen from the Turkish border town of Ceylanpinar, Turkey on Wednesday.. (photo credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)

The announcement comes as Russian-backed Syrian forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad sweep back into the region – heading for incoming Turkish troops moving in from the north. 

Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan has backed anti-Assad rebels during Syria’s eight-year civil war, calling Assad a terrorist who should be driven from power.

 

The newly revealed backchannels were first initiated over a separate escalation in northwest Syria, at a time when Russian-backed Syrian troops launched an assault in the Idlib region which contained Turkish forces. Those same channels are now being used to avoid direct conflict, according to the report.

“We have been in contact with Syria on military and intelligence issues for some time in order to avoid any problems on the field,” a Turkish official told Reuters, adding “Contact with Syria has largely been through Russia, but this communication was done directly between Turkey and Syria at times to avoid Syrian and Turkish soldiers engaging in direct confrontation.

While the Turkish government insists that it has not changed its stance towards Assad, the security contacts with Damascus reflect a growing reality that it cannot ignore the Syrian president’s steady restoration of control over his country.

Russia’s position as go-between also points to the central role played by Moscow – Assad’s most powerful backer – in Syria since President Donald Trump said he was pulling U.S. troops out of northern Syria.

Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Tuesday for talks which are likely to shape the next steps in northeast Syria.

We will also receive information about Syria’s perspective and the steps it will take during the meeting with Putin,” a senior Turkish official said. –Jerusalem Post

On October 9, Turkey launched a cross-border offensive against Kurdish-led forces to establish a 20-mile “safe zone” near the border. Once this is completed, Erdogan is preparing to settle up to 2 million Syrian refugees.

 

Meanwhile, a 5-day ceasefire expires late Tuesday focusing on two Syrian border towns; Tel Abyad and Ras al Ain – the latter of which the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced their withdrawal from on Sunday. That said, a spokesman for the Turkish-backed Syrian rebels said the withdrawal was not yet complete. Turkey, meanwhile, says it’s in control of Tel Abyad.

euronews

@euronews

Live | Smoke seen rising above Syria’s Ras Al Ainhttp://Euronews.com https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1mnxezwReXRKX 

Live | Smoke seen rising above Syria’s Ras Al Ain

euronews @euronews

Last week, Erdogan announced that he would accept Syrian forces entering the border town of Manbij as long as the Kurdish YPG militia – the core component of the SDF considered a terrorist group by Ankara – was removed.

Moscow mules

While Russia and Syria are longstanding allies in the region, Ankara and Moscow have grown closer according to the report – as their ties have strengthened over joint energy projects as well as Turkey’s purchase of Russian missile defense systems over comparable US equipment.

As Erdogan and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence hammered out a surprise Syria truce under the glare of international media on Thursday, Russia’s Syria envoy quietly met Erdogan’s national security aide in another part of the president’s palace.

Syrian media reported that envoy Alexander Lavrentiev met Assad in Damascus the next day, without saying whether he had brought a message from Ankara.

A third Turkish official said Lavrentiev’s talks in Turkey had focused on preparations for Erdogan and Putin’s meeting.

Turkey and Russia have cooperated more closely on Syria since agreeing two years ago to work along with Assad’s other main ally, Iran, to contain the fighting. –Jerusalem Post

Turkey insists that Syria must conduct free elections overseen by the United Nations, and has vowed to work with whoever wins a “fair vote.”

IRAN
Major fire at an Iranian refinery..a cyber attack from Israel  or Saudi Arabia?
(zerohedge)

Major Blaze At Iran Oil Refinery Raises Suspicions Of Saudi Revenge Attacro

A section of Iran’s sprawling Abadan oil refinery in the southwest of the country went up in flames Saturday, and state media sources reported the emergency was under control as of Sunday morning.

State media is describing it as “a fire in a canal carrying waste from Iran’s Abadan oil refinery,” with Iranian official broadcaster IRIB saying, “The refinery’s fire department contained the fire and prevented it from spreading to other units.”

Tasnim News Agency

@Tasnimnews_EN


A fire in a canal carrying waste from ’s oil refinery was brought under control on Sunday: State Media

Embedded video

However, given the extent of the blaze captured in social media circulating videos, and especially given it comes after a tense summer of attacks on tanker and refineries — notably the Sept. 14 Saudi Aramco drone and missile attack — the newest Iran facility fire raises serious question.

Could the clearly massive Abadan blaze, which Iranian state sources appear ready to downplay, be the result of a Saudi revenge attack?

Though unverified and unconfirmed, Iranian opposition sources are pointing to a potential cyber attack as a possible cause for the fire.

Babak Taghvaee@BabakTaghvaee

: It is now confirmed that a Cyber attack resulted fire in ‘s Oil Refinery in Southwest of . Probably a Cyber attack in response to ‘s cruise missile attack at ‘s oil facilities in & , on 14 September 2019.

Embedded video

Again, local authorities say it’s the result of an accident, and though yes the occasional oil refinery blaze does happen, it’s the fact that it comes after months of unprecedented Saudi-Iran (and allies) tit-for-tat targeting of tankers and energy resources that should raise some eyebrows.

The blaze is currently subject of intense speculation online after early reports cited an initial “explosion” at the facility.

Fatih@fatihcagrii

ŞİMDİ

İran’ın Abadan kentindeki petrol rafinerisinde patlama sesi duyuldu, yangın çıktı.

• İran devlet ajansı Tasnim, yangının kontrol altına alındığını belirtiyor.

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Interestingly, the Abadan refinery has been subject of major foreign investment, with a Chinese firm Sinopec signing a $1.2 billion deal with Iran’s oil ministry for a major modernization project at the facility in 2016.

And earlier this year it was announced that “China’s Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation has invested €2 billion in development projects in the refinery since 2017,” as initially cited by IRNA.

 

Abadan refinery in Iran’s southwest region, file image.

However, with new US sanctions now targeting major Chinese shipping firms and entities caught importing Iranian oil, Beijing has begun pulling out of major oil and gas infrastructure projects inside Iran.

The fire is currently said to be under control, per state sources, but a definitive cause is as yet still unclear.

 END
Syria/USA

As expected, Trump will leave a small garrison in Syria to guard toe oil fields

(zerohedge)

Trump May Leave Small Garrison Of US Troops To Guard Syrian Oil Fields

Update (1215ET): While President Trump confirmed earlier that there was “no need” to leave troops in Syria, he quickly restated his comments, in line with Esper’s earlier remarks, saying that he would work something out to provide the Kurds with cash, perhaps through the involvement of a U.S. oil company.

“We’ve secured the oil,” he said, adding that he’s willing to leave US troops in Syria to secure the oil (and in a second region, due to requests from Jordan and Israel).

*  *  *

The Trump administration may leave some US troops behind in Northeastern Syria to guard oilfields alongside Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), according to a Monday statement by Defense Secretary Mark Esper.

The news comes as US troops cross into Iraq as part of President Trump’s announced withdrawal from Syria, after which Turkey promptly launched an offensive against the SDF – whose heads Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to “crush” last week after he referred to them as terrorists.

Turkey’s nearly two-week old offensive has displaced some 300,000 people and led to 120 casualties among civilians and 470 among SDF fighters, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Sunday. Turkey says 765 terrorists but no civilians have been killed in its offensive. –Reuters

Over 100 US military vehicles crossed into Iraq early Monday from the northeast tip of Syria, where Turkey agreed to a temporary ceasefire for five days following a deal brokered by the White House according to Reuters. The truce expires on Tuesday, right after Erdogan is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As for guarding the oil fields, Esper told reporters during a trip to Afghanistan that while the US withdrawal was underway, US troops were still operating with partner forces near oilfields, and that discussions about keeping them there had occurred.

Update (1215ET): While President Trump said this morning that he sees “no need” to keep any troops in Syria, he quickly restated his comment, noting that he would work something out to provide the Kurds with cash, perhaps through the involvement of a U.S. oil company.

“We’ve secured the oil,” he said, adding that he’s willing to leave US troops in Syria to secure that oil going forward.

*  *  *

Esper said that was just one option, and that no decisions had been made “with regard to numbers or anything like that,” adding that the Pentagon’s job is to look for different solutions.

“We presently have troops in a couple of cities that (are)located right near that area,” said Esper. “The purpose is to deny access, specifically revenue to ISIS (Islamic State) and any other groups that may want to seek that revenue to enable their own malign activities.”

Trump’s shift has opened a new chapter in Syria’s more than eight-year war and prompted a rush by Turkey and by the Damascus government and its ally Russia to fill the vacuum left by the Americans.

His decision has been criticized in Washington and elsewhere as a betrayal of Kurdish allies who had fought for years alongside U.S. troops in a region rich in oil reserves and farmland.

The New York Times reported late on Sunday that Trump was now leaning in favor of a new military plan to keep about 200 U.S. troops in eastern Syria near the Iraq border. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. –Reuters

Turkey, in an effort to separate themselves from the YPG – a group which makes up the majority of the SDF, is seeking to set up a “safe zone.” The YPG is seen as a terrorist group in Ankara due to its links with Kurdish insurgents living in southeast Turkey. According to Erdogan, his forces will continue their assault in Syria when the deadline expires on Tuesday if the SDF has not retreated from its proposed zone spanning much of the border.

“We will take up this process with Mr Putin and after that we will take the necessary steps” regarding northeastern Syria, Erdogan said on Monday while speaking at an Istanbul forum hosted by TRT World, adding that Turkey will set up a dozen observation posts in the “safe zone,” which as Reuters notes, drew the ire of Iran.

“We are against Ankara’s establishing of military posts in Syria,” said Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi during a Monday broadcast on live state TV. “The issues should be resolved by diplomatic means … Syria’s integrity should be respected,” he added.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Minister of Defense, Sergi Shoigu, said that Moscow – an ally of Syria, hopes it can act as an intermediary between the United States and Turkey to promote security and stability in the region.

On Sunday, the SDF announced their withdrawal from the border town of Ras al Ain during the US-brokered ceasefire, however a spokesman for the Turkish-backed Syrian rebels said the withdrawal was not yet complete. According to Turkish security forces, Kurdish YPG forces were moving toward Al Hasakah – a region south of the proposed safe zone. According to their report, some 125 vehicles had already cleared out, while over 80 Kurdish militants had been captured or had surrendered to Turkish forces.

Middle East/USA/Russia
Tom Luongo discusses his take on the middle East and especially on Syria
(Tom Luongo)

Luongo: A New Middle East Thanks To Putin

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Peace in the Middle East is coming at us fast and we’re going to have Russian President Vladimir Putin to thank for it.

The howls of agony coming from U.S. and European foreign policy centers are deafening. Pat Buchanan lists them in his latest article which asks if Putin is now the new king of the Middle East.

“Donald Trump Has Handed Putin the Middle East on a Plate” was the title of a Telegraph column. “Putin Seizes on Trump’s Syria Retreat to Cement Middle East Role,” said the Financial Times.

The U.S. press parroted the British: Putin is now the new master of the Mideast. And woe is us.

Remember that the epicenter of virulent anti-Russian, pro-Israeli sentiment doesn’t begin with the Neocons along K-Street. It begins with the remnants of the British imperial class which still holds tremendous sway over British politics.

Think I’m wrong about that. Just look at Brexit.

As I pointed out the minute Trump defended his initial pullout of 50 U.S. troops to allow Turkey to cross into northern Syria, Putin has the situation mostly under control by laying the groundwork to craft win/win/win/win possibilities for everyone in the region.

Buchanan remains skeptical of this, saying that if Putin is the new king of the Middle East, will the crown lie heavy on his head?

It’s a fair question but I think it betrays Pat’s biases as an old Cold Warrior.

Pat makes a series of comparisons between Russia’s military presence in the region and the size of the economies backing them to make his point. I think, frankly, that’s outdated analysis.

It is based on the premise that Russia has imperial aspirations in the region, similar to that of the U.S. At his core, Buchanan is still a ‘great powers theory’ kind of guy.

From the moment Putin began his intervention into Syria the U.S.’s punditocracy said he would get bogged down in a quagmire. That he couldn’t afford the coming war with entrenched ISIS fighters.

This was based on the fact that the U.S. couldn’t defeat ISIS. But that logic only held if you believed the U.S. was actually fighting ISIS which I never did. Once Russia moved into Syria it exposed the lie of ISIS’s strength.

Within days of Russian air operations beginning the Syrian Arab Army began taking large chunks of territory from U.S. and Turkish-backed rebels and from ISIS.

The turnaround was striking. And the U.S. was stunned into fumbling silence, complaining that Putin was bombing the wrong people. The efficiency of the Russian air crews was off the charts and the results on the ground spoke for themselves.

This isn’t revisionist history or Putin shilling here. These are facts. The Russians were turning their planes over three to four times a day at that point.

It’s clear from the way that Putin has built Russia’s military that it is designed around defense of Russia’s borders not invading or maintaining an Empire.

And that’s why Buchanan’s criticisms of Putin’s victories here ring hollow. Pat rightly points out that if Putin does craft a network of deals that bring regional peace he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

But I suspect Pat doesn’t believe that to be happening.

My read, however, is the opposite. Peace is exactly what is happening.

From the beginning of my return to blogging in 2017 I speculated about the Grand Bargain in the Middle East built around Putin guaranteeing the behavior of his allies — Israel, Hezbollah, Syria, Iraqi Shi’ites — and President Trump guaranteeing the good behavior of his — Israel, the Saudis and the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

That vision of the Grand Bargain never materialized because the influence of those allies within Trump’s government were too strong for him to resist politically.

Putin was smart to remain skeptical of Trump’s ability to deliver on his promises. And Trump, for his part, was sent down a path which would define his first term as a shambolic mess thanks to his inability to grasp the enormity of the problem confronting him.

He pushed U.S. policy too far in the pro-Israel, pro-Saudi direction to sell his version of Middle East peace, lobbied for intensely by Benjamin Netanyahu, Jared Kushner and their backers who helped install arch neocons around Trump like John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Fiona Hill and Gina Haspel.

These folks were put in place to keep Trump ignorant of the dangers of his policy while Secretary of State James Mattis was there to stoke the hard-line militarily on Iran. Add to that General Joseph Dunford’s role as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to suppress strategic conclusions about our operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Now with the passing of the Dunford regime as Joint Chief in September, General Milley steps in, with significant changes to public policy already on display. For example, Milley’s commissioned study of the Iraq war — long awaited and delayed by military pressure to prevent release of a largely negative report — was publicly released by Milley in January of 2019. The report states, “that coalition warfare (in Iraq) was ‘largely unsuccessful’ for several reasons, that failing to account for a lack of understanding of the inner workings of Iraqi politics and group struggles’ in part led to failure there. That’s an account that Dunford was unlikely to approve, and may have caused him to delay. So, with the departure of Dunford and Mattis as we shall see, the way forward for US disengagement from Syria’s northeast was made possible.

I don’t think U.S. disengagement is just possible. I think it’s happening right in front of our eyes.

Any thought that Putin is not up to the task here isn’t reading the tea leaves.

Everyone who has been fronting strength has been bluffing. Hard.

Israel is weak. Saudi Arabia weak. Turkey weak.

The U.S. weaker than anyone wants to admit.

Pat’s right that Russia isn’t strong, but no one here is. Everyone’s been drained by the refusal to give up the dream of atomizing the region in the service of the outdated Brzezinski/Wolfowitz doctrine of sowing discord in Central Asia.

The EU has drained itself in the service of a political union no one except The Davos Crowd wants. The U.K. is drained from decades of the EU vacuuming their wealth from the core economy, hollowing it out to a financial shell centered around City of London.

The Russia/China/Iran axis has simply played the ultimate game of attrition, reading the economic and political tea leaves perfectly while executing a pan-Eurasian strategy of integration through disengagement from U.S. and U.K. financial institutions.

Russia is the only country with the unique mix of resources, geography and financial stability, thanks to its policy of de-dollarization and prudent fiscal management, that can make good on any of the promises it makes to its potential partners on the other side of the negotiating table.

Trump is following Putin’s lead in his dealings with Turkey. By leaving places like Manbij to the Syrians and the Russians it makes it clear to all that this is a bargain that can work for everyone directly involved.

Syria gets its territory back, Turkey gets the Kurdish SDF off its border in an important town and the U.S. alerts the world that the old game is over and a new one is starting.

Both of them made moves to stabilize Saudi Arabia — Trump with troops to keep Iran honest and Putin with major deals to assist the Saudi financial position through investment. Trump has worked with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan to act as his proxy in Saudi/Iranian peace talks.

Putin is limiting Turkey’s Erdogan’s adventurism in Syria by fully supporting Assad and the restoration of Syrian territorial integrity through diplomacy with the YPG Kurds.

Putin and Trump are both waiting to see who takes power in Israel. But at this point it’s clear that whoever does will finally be order-takers and no longer order-makers unless Trump is impeached and convicted.

At this point that’s the biggest wild card. And regardless of that outcome, the rest of Putin’s deft use of diplomacy and his efficient military have created a different reality for Israel, that even with a full neocon restoration post-Trump, won’t be favorable to them.

And yes, you can thank Vladimir Putin for that.

end

6.Global Issues

Renault and Volvo slash guidance as the auto industry across the globe is shattering\

(zerohedge)

Renault, Volvo Slash Guidance, Unleashing Shockwaves Across Auto Industry

It has become a fool’s errand to deny that the global automobile industry is in recession (even if there is still some debate as to the causes). We have documented, at length, falling sales around the globe – led by the world’s largest market in China – over the last two years, and recessionary trends in places like North America and Europe show no signs of letting up.

And today, Renault and Volvo were the two most recent examples of just how dire the situation has become… and will be.

Renault shares plunged as much as 12% in Paris overnight after the company slashed its full year revenue and profit forecast, while pre-announcing Q3 revenue: “Due to an economic environment less favorable than expected and in a regulatory context requiring ever-increasing costs, Groupe Renault revises its guidance for FY2019,” the company’s release said.

The auto manufacturer guided for revenues to fall between -3% and -4%, versus previous guidance of near flat. It also guided for a contraction in its operating margin to about 5% from its previous guidance of 6%.

Automotive operating free cash flow “should be positive in H2 while not guaranteed for the full year”, the company said, rescinding its previous guidance of positive full year automotive operating free cash flow. The company plans on reporting full earnings on October 25.

Swiss truckmaker Volvo also reported a sharp decline in its Q3 orders and forecasted an upcoming slump in demand for next year, despite beating analyst estimates for the quarter, according to Reuters.

Volvo said that orders for its trucks, which include brands like Mack and Renault, fell 45% from last year. Analysts had forecast a drop of slightly more than 30%.

The company’s CEO, Martin Lundstedt, said that Volvo is well prepared for an “expected correction” in its main markets. Volvo had been reducing production volumes over the past quarter and said it’s going to continue making “further adjustments” in coming quarters in light of declining orders.

BI Intelligence analyst Johnson Imode stated:

“Volvo looks set for a sharp deterioration in 2020 profitability, in our view, following its weakest truck order intake since the 2009 recession in 3Q, predicting European and U.S. markets will fall by 15-30% next year. Production levels are being adjusted, but inherent operating leverage — with profit doubling in the 2016-19 cycle — demonstrates the challenge faced.”

Brokerage house Pareto piled on in a note out Friday: “Truck order intake was on the weak side, 17% below our estimate and 20% below consensus.”

Volvo’s outlook was anything but optimistic: it said it expects the market for heavy trucks to shrink by about 14% in Europe and 29% in North America next year due to “economic uncertainty”. Analysts had expected estimates of a decline of 11% for Europe and 25% for North America.

Heavy truck demand continues to falter as a result of the global economy weakening. As Bloomberg notes, last week, the IMF “made a fifth-straight reduction to its 2019 global economic forecast, citing trade tensions for its weakest growth projection since 2009.”

But other analysts aren’t as pessimistic. Danske Bank credit analysts including Natasja Cordes said: “Volvo has already begun to reduce production volumes and, in our view, is much better equipped heading into this downturn than it was in the past.”

“For 2020, we expect markets to come down to more normal replacement levels in both Europe and North America, which we have prepared ourselves for,” Volvo CEO Lundstedt said.

end
And now the diamond industry is collapsing\
(zerohedge)

“There Is A Global Crisis” – Israel Diamond Industry Collapses Amid Faltering Demand

Macroeconomic headwinds are developing across the world. At least 90% of all countries are experiencing a slowdown in growth that has stumped central bankers and policymakers. No one at the moment can figure out how to restart the global economy. With the risk of a worldwide trade recession soaring for 2020, if not has already arrived, consumers are pulling back on spending, which has contributed to a collapse in the global diamond industry, something that we’ve been documenting this year.

The latest stress in the global diamond industry is emanating from Israel. Ynetnews is saying the country’s diamond exports have plunged 22%, a sign that consumer demand from Asia is faltering.

Trade data showed for the first three quarters of 2019, Israeli exports of diamonds were $2.62 billion, down from $3.32 billion during the same period last year.

In 3Q19, imports and exports of diamonds by Israel plunged 28% YoY.

The Times of Israel blamed the downturn on the trade war and social unrest in Hong Kong.

Yoram Dvash, president of the Israel Diamond Exchange, told Ynetnews:

There is a global crisis. The government needs to help out the industry. Everywhere people are helping because they understand that there are difficulties now. Trump’s trade war with China and the Hong Kong protests really influence the industry. Hong Kong accounts for about 30% of our exports. The Hong Kong government said that in recent times, the sector that’s been damaged the most there has been the jewelry industry.”

Dvash said Hong Kong jewelry shops, which import hundreds of millions of dollars of diamonds from Israel per year, have noticed collapsing demand from mainland China because of the social unrest and economic downturn in the region.

“Right now, the Chinese government isn’t granting visas to Chinese to go to Hong Kong in order to put pressure on business people there and hurt the economy. It’s paralyzing the number 2 diamond market in the world,” Dvash said.

A source told Ynetnews that a credit crisis in India involving Indian diamond companies has negatively impacted the global industry.

Earlier this month, De Beers’, one of the largest diamond exploration, diamond mining, and diamond retailing companies in the world, saw a 39% YoY drop in September sales.

A diamond analyst last month said markets remained oversupplied, resulting in weak global sales.

“The current malaise in the market is due to oversupply,” said Paul Zimnisky, an analyst in New York, who said diamond buyers had too much inventory.

Spot diamond prices on the IDEX Diamond Index shows how oversupplied conditions have weighed down prices in the last 8 months.

Source: Bloomberg

And while diamonds are supposed to “a girl’s best friend”, recent months have seen gold the preferred shiny thing of choice…

Source: Bloomberg

Shares in Signet, the world’s largest retailer of diamond jewelry, have crashed 89% in the last four years.

It appears a diamond crisis is unfolding, and this is what usually happens right before a global recession, a sign that the consumer can no longer power the global economy. Turmoil is ahead.

end

Over the weekend, Chile’s capital Santiago was on fire with mass riots.  Tanks and military troops patrolled the streets

(zerohedge)

Santiago On Fire: Chile’s Military Quells Mass Riots With Tanks & Troops Patrolling Streets

Chile’s capital of Santiago has been rocked by riots driven largely by students, leading to President Sebastian Pinera declaring a state of emergency over the city, at the end of a week which by Friday witnessed increasingly violent unrest force the shutdown of the entire metro system, and which turned central areas into a war zone as protesters clashed with police.

Buildings and metro stations have been set on fire, and over 150 police officers injured, as students were seen in running clashes with security forces. The high-rise corporate headquarters of electric utility Enel was filmed going up in flames on Saturday as military troops were confirmed to be patrolling central streets and neighborhoods.

 

Student rioters have targeted metro stations over a price hike in fares, via Reuters.

The protests appear driven by multiple grievances over rising costs of living, including public services, healthcare and education, sparked by a recent rise in metro fare, which reportedly enraged the nation’s large demographic of university students.

 

 

youth-led unrest is targeting the capital’s transport and energy hubs and centers, as well as police, due to lack of promised reforms in these sectors, adding to the cost of living woes.

 

Enel energy building in downtown Santiago went up in flames Friday night. Image source: AFP/Getty

Over the past week the metro authority has reported dozens of vandalism incidents related to a sudden price hike on fares reportedly due to higher energy costs and a weaker peso, with “serious destruction” of Santiago’s vast subway system, which serves a total city population of seven million, making it impossible to operate safely.

CNN Chile

@CNNChile

🔴 AHORA – Tanquetas y militares armados llegan a Plaza Italia http://bit.ly/2oV9piU

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Footage circulating on social media showed entire metro trains on fire, with various parts of the city also ablaze, as mostly high school and university students set up makeshift barricades, attacked multiple metro stations, started fires, and generally brought the usually bustling city to a standstill.

President Pinera upon announcing the new state of emergency, said “The aim is to ensure public order and the safety of public and private property,” in a televised address.

Davor Mimica@dmimica

Sacarlos a la calle fue un grave error

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The Chilean president further vowed, “There will be no room for violence in a country with the rule of law at its core.”

 

Clashes with police at a Santiago metro station, via EPA.

As The Guardian summarizes, the declaration gives authorities carte blanch to hand down harsh sentences to anyone caught violating public order:

As ordained by Chile’s dictatorship-era constitution, the state of emergency will apply to Santiago and can last for 15 days. It grants the government additional powers to restrict citizens’ freedom of movement and their right to assembly. Ominously, soldiers will return to the streets for the first time since an earthquake devastated parts of the country in 2010.

…In practice the law means that heavy sentences of up to 20 years imprisonment could be handed down to those found guilty of inhibiting or damaging public services.

 

Image via AFP

Saturday witnessed scenes of dozens of armored military troop carriers rapidly deploying across Santiago.

Jennifer DeMaster@JenDemaster

In , Chile – foreigners, civilians, and many Americans are on lockdown unable to leave or go anywhere due to the riots.

Tanks & forces seen driving up streets just feet from where American/Chilean and other foreign students are studying.

Embedded video

Protesters and activists decried what they described as “tanks in the streets” amid the general crackdown.

Marcela Lladó 💚@marcellado

Esto es horrible, llegaron los tanques a plaza Italia, milicos apuntando, intimidando a gente desarmada con los brazos en alto

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Meanwhile the Chilean student federation has urged a nationwide strike for Monday, after an estimated $700,000 worth of damage had been done to the city’s high-tech metro rail system.

BioBioChile

@biobio

🔴 AHORA | Estación de Metro San Pablo se incendia.

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Though Chile remains among the wealthiest countries in Latin America, the rapidly widening gap between rich and poor is believed to be a key contributing factor to this week’s dramatic unrest.

END
Now the UN is sounding the alarm bell that there needs to be fiscal stimulus to save the world forma financial crisis
(zerohedge)

Central Banks Are Out Of Ammo – UN Head Demands Immediate Fiscal Stimulus To Save World From Crisis

More and more global leaders sound the alarm that the world economy is headed for a difficult period in 2020.

Unlike several years ago, leaders across the world are now calling for immediate deployment of fiscal stimulus, but not monetary stimulus, a sign that central banks are out of ammunition to combat the next economic crisis.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the global economic outlook is facing severe headwinds, and the international community must quickly act to “do everything possible” to prevent the world from “fracturing,” mostly due to the US and China trade war.

Guterres spoke on Saturday at the World Bank Group and IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, DC.

He said that “during tense and testing times,” he “fears the possibility of a Great Fracture – with the two largest economies splitting the globe in two – each with its own dominant currency, trade and financial rules, its own internet and artificial intelligence capacities and its own zero-sum geopolitical and military strategies.”

He told international bankers that “it is not too late to avoid” this fracturing of the world, but “we must do everything possible to avert this…and maintain a universal economy with universal respect for international law; a multipolar world with strong multilateral institutions, such as the World Bank and IMF.”

UN Spokesperson

@UN_Spokesperson

At the , @antonioguterres stressed we must do everything possible to maintain a universal economy with respect for international law; a multipolar world with strong multilateral institutions, such as the @WorldBank & @IMFNews. His remarks: https://www.un.org/sg/en/latest/sg/statement 

Latest Statements

un.org

Guterres told government officials and bankers they must conduct three fiscal policies in the 2020s to save the world economy:

  • First, modernize their tax systems that are “smarter, greener, and more aligned behind the sustainable development and climate action agendas,” he said.
  • Second, he said global financial markets must incentivizing longterm investing in programs that address poverty, inequality, climate, environmental degradation, prosperity, and peace and justice.
  • And third, he said, “it is time to break the cycle of excessive debt build-up followed by painful debt crises.”

Guterres’ comments over the weekend come as the world economy has entered a “synchronized global slowdown,” with one of the weakest growth outlooks since the Lehman crisis in 2008.

The IMF made a fifth-straight cut to its 2019 global growth forecast last week, citing a broad deceleration across the world’s largest economies as trade tensions undermine the expansion.

“With a synchronized slowdown and uncertain recovery, the global outlook remains precarious,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath wrote in the report.

“There is no room for policy mistakes and an urgent need for policymakers to cooperatively de-escalate trade and geopolitical tensions.”

The IMF estimates that 90% of the world sees slower growth. This is a considerable change to the global economy from two years ago, when growth was accelerating across three-quarters of the globe in a synchronized upswing.

Central banks have depleted their toolkits with interest rate policies around the world at zero or negative, and that is precisely why Guterres is calling for fiscal policies to play a more significant role in boosting economic activity.

Eric Basmajian, of EPB Macro Research, beautifully illustrates in a series of charts how the effectiveness of monetary policy across the world is dying.

Basmajian says each time China expands monetary stimulus, money supply growth usually responds, but in 2019, “money supply growth is unresponsive.”

“As central banks ease monetary policy and lower interest rates, within several months, money supply growth often starts to accelerate, fueled by easier conditions, the first sign that economic growth may start to inflect higher. Changes in money supply growth can often lead inflections in more commonly followed economic data by over a year.

As economies become more indebted, central bank policy loses its efficacy in a concept often referred to as “pushing on a string.” Central banks are trying to ease conditions, but some monetary aggregates are unresponsive. Luckily, this is not the case in the United States (yet) as money supply growth started to inflect after the Federal Reserve shifted from rate hikes and “QT” to rate cuts and “New QE.” China, however, may have a problem of its own.

Since the start of 2019, “China Stimulus” was an overused talking point.

Ironically, despite the headlines, the stimulus is not apparent in the rate of Chinese money growth. Moreover, the rate of money growth in China is sitting at one of the lowest levels since reported data is available,” Basmajian wrote.

China Money Supply Growth:

China M1 Growth Not Following Interest Rates:

So it’s becoming increasingly evident that China, one of the most powerful economic growth engines of the world, can’t stimulate its economy nor the rest of the world through monetary stimulus. Global leaders understand that monetary tool kits with central banks have entirely run out of ammunition, that is why we hear the calls for fiscal stimulus.

Even if central bankers avoid a global recession/depression, the next upswing in the global economy is going to be significantly weaker than before. But if policymakers don’t have the tools, nor coordination globally to implement fiscal policy, then it’s likely a global recession is dead ahead.

We must also note that the trade war didn’t cause the global slowdown, it was the death of monetary stimulus that did, along with over-indebtedness of countries that could no longer stimulate growth.

END

Bill Blain on Brexit, and the huge debt market which he bleieves will blow up

(Bill Blain)

 

Blain: “I Am Convinced The Debt Markets Are About To Blow Up”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

“If you wake up on a Casper mattress, work out with a Peloton before breakfast, Uber to your desk at a WeWork, order DoorDash for lunch, take a Lyft home, and get dinner through Postmates, you’ve interacted with seven companies that will collectively lose nearly $14 billion this year.”

It’s a big week for markets with the ECB meeting, some critical Q3 stock numbers and a host of things to worry about in terms of economic releases and the continuing slowing of the Chinese economy. Its all critical stuff for the bond market – which I reckon is a ticking time-bomb. But more about that later… For stock markets, the quote this morning sums it up – the mood is changing: forget the disruptive tech unicorns and focus on fundamentals. But, first up we really can’t ignore the Brexit mess in the UK.  Saturday’s SNAFU gives investors another chance to load up on Sterling.  At some point Brexit will be fixed.  It might be messy.

Brexxxxxxiiiiitttt…..

I am sure foreign readers are wondering how the Mother of All Parliaments is making such a Horlicks of the Brexit negotiations.  It really doesn’t look good does it?   On the other hand, it does show the vibrancy of our political process, and the fact individuals can force it to change. It’s just a shame so many of these individuals seen to be self-seeking egotistical numpties of the worst kind – but even Oliver Letwin has a mother that probably loves him.

The reason Brexit is so messy is simple. It boils down to weak government – which is a recent thing here in the UK.  As soon as the Tories lost their working majority in Theresa May’s ill-advised and badly conceived 2017 general election, the process fell hostage to individuals thinking they could save the country from its misguided referendum decision, and political calculators cynically working out how best to way-lay and embarrass the May and now Johnson Government. (Easy for the Labour party to chop/change policies and promise Brexit one-day and a referendum the next – why? Because nobody cares about them..)

As parliament tends to attract political types who sincerely believe the Public desperately needs to know their opinions (in detail), the egotistical pond life than inhabits the green benches has taken every opportunity to frustrate, delay, push-their-own-agenda, and conflabulate the process. That’s how an idiot-savant like Oliver Letwin was able to hi-jack the vote and kill it on Saturday. The result is the massive uncertainty of Brexit – which is the real issue damaging the economy, making voters apoplectic, management uncertain and peeving everyone.

Relax – long-term it does not matter.

In a few years time, after Brexit finally happens (because even if the Remoaners get their second vote, Europe wants us out), then the effect on the UK economy will be a minor plus or minus.  We will not notice.  The UK and Europe will not be riven for eternity.  We will adjust, we will still trade between each other.  We will still scream at dirty French play in the Six Nations rugby, (yes, I am thinking of Vahaamahina on Sunday.) We will still drink German beer, eat French cheese and take holidays in Spain.

From the rhetoric, you’d think Brexit was the End of the World. It’s not. It’s political process.  They do say: “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for any of the alternatives”.  So get over it, get set to buy sterling and UK domestic stocks on the likelihood that speaker John Bercow will frustrate the vote today and cause sterling to tumble. Buy the dip.  Boris may lose every battle, but in the long-term the Tories will win an election, and the UK will get a Brexit which will ultimately change the World by a tiny infinitesimal fraction..

We are fortunate to have a vibrant political system that questions, objects and demands answers. Would you rather be part of something more somnambulant? (As one Brexiteer explained to me: We joined a simple trade agreement with open borders to the world, but that mission-crept into a closed economy heading towards an unlikely political union bound together in common currency that shackles most countries to perpetual penury, in a system designed and promoted by the French to pursue their 400 year historical goal of European hegemony?)

Brexit is a change in our foreign relations – which happens all the time across the globe. Politicians throwing numbers plucked from no-where about how much damage it will do are just guesses. Nothing more.  Lets move on..

The Ticking Time Bomb in the Debt Markets

I am more and more convinced the Debt Markets are about to blow up. It will start with a small wobble. Perhaps a small hint that anticipated global recession isn’t/won’t be so bad, or further acknowledgement Central Bank experimental monetary policy hasn’t worked and they won’t continue to slash rates and institute QE on every chill economic wind. Or maybe it will start with a trickle of investors looking to sell corporate debt, discovering just how illiquid the market is and panicking, causing a massive avalanche of bond misery.

If/when any of these happen, then bond market holders will be left holding massive losses on low yielding assets.  Will it trigger crisis? Most of the risk that caused the 2008 crisis was held by banks. Over the past 10-years the bulk of that risk has been transferred out the banks into fund management – real money insurance and pension savings.

How willing will central banks be to bail the system when an immediate banking crisis, (except in Europe, because there is bound to be a banking crisis in Europe, because that’s just how it is..), is not such a threat?

And, although investors will take losses, these will largely be mark-to-market and income rather than default – meaning investors get hosed, lose money but don’t lose everything. It will hurt and it will cause retail investor fury… if they understand why! (Clue – blame central banks!)

Stocks

The big stock to watch this week will be Boeing. The moment to buy will be when they sack the management.  The negative thesis that Boeing had effectively “captured” the Federal Aviation Authority and pushed thru an unsafe B-737 Max has been in the market for months. Now it looks like there is truth in the rumors – with a smoking email from a test pilot about “Jedi-mind tricks on regulators”.  Boeing has already demoted Dennis Muilenberg from Chair/CEO to CEO. When he’s out the door, put your buying boots on.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1169 UP .0054 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.56 UP 0.231 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2999   UP   0.0076  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3104 UP .0003 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 54 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1169 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.38 POINTS OR 0.05% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.10 POINTS OR 0.02%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,01%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.10 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.48 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 01% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 56.22  POINTS OR 0.25%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1490.30

silver:$17.69-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.78% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.28 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.15 DOWN 13 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.24% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.13%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.29%//UP 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.98 UP 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 67 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.34% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1142  UP     .0027 or 27 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.56 UP 0.233 OR YEN DOWN 23  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.29979 UP .0060 POUND UP 60  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 1 basis points to 1.3101

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0730    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0719  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8508 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.79 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.29 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.35 UP 7  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 9.53  0.24%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 132.96 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 22.22 POINTS 0.39%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 79.80 POINTS or 0.86%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 169.12 POINTS OR 0.76%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.24 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 58.59 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    63.75  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.08 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 9 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.34 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.47//

 

 

BRENT :  59.09

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.80..plus 4 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.29..plus 4 basis pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1148 ( UP 33   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.64 UP .310 (YEN DOWN 31 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.32 UP 4 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2962 UP 42  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8585

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.71   DOWN 0.04 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3085 UP 17 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0730  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0713 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.38%

 

The Dow closed UP 57.58 POINTS OR 0.22%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 73.45 POINTS OR 0.91%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.08 CLOSED DOWN .17

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.951%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Boeing Drags Down Dow, Short-Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring

More trade deal “progress” headlines, Kudlow jawboning, Brexit deal optimism fades, continued weakness in macro data but a squeeze proves everything is awesome in stocks as the S&P is lifted back above 3000…

 

Chinese stocks were mixed on the day with small caps/tech on the losing side and bigger cap names leading (thanks to two buying-panics)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

European markets ended the day higher, led by Germany (and UK’s FTSE rebounded from a weak open)…

Source: Bloomberg

While Boeing weighed down the Dow…

Small Caps and Trannies surged out of the gate and accelerated again after the EU close…

 

The S&P 500 once again battled with the 3,000 level as various repetitive trade progress headlines attempted to defend the Maginot Line… First close above 3k sine 9/18…

 

“Most Shorted” stocks were panic-squeezed at the open (and at the EU close)…

Source: Bloomberg

Boeing back at early 2018 lows…

Bank stocks continue to outperform as the yield curve steepens…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks also surged in traday… despite a drop in crude (we’ve seen this before)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were uniformly 3-4bps higher on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, the longer-end of the yield curve has been trading in rather extreme short-term trends…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar Index was flat on the day, rebounding from some overnight weakness once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable continues to rise, tagging 1.3000 intraday (despite today’s proceedings going against Johnson) – up 8 handles in 8 days

Source: Bloomberg

Silver and Gold were lower on the day (after decent gains overnight) and oil was also lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures pushed up towards $1500 intraday before falling back…

And silver popped and dropped…

 

WTI chopped around intraday (between $53 and $54) but ended lower…

 

Copper/Gold continues to track 10Y TSY yields (or vice versa) almost perfectly..

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that tech stocks continue to outperform, despite flat to falling earnings expectations…

And this is why…

But it may not be enough as Bloomberg points out that as the U.S. dollar heads for the biggest monthly decline since the trade war began, the outlook for corporate profits has started to deteriorate in America and improve in emerging markets.

Source: Bloomberg

Late breaking news was that Softback will bailout WeWork at a valuation around $7.5-8 billion…

Neumann’s wealth went full  Keyser Söze.

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Kudlow Spikes Spooks Above 3,000, Says “December Tariffs” Could Be Taken If China Talks Go Well

With Trump eager to put last week’s turbulence in the readview mirror and start off the new week on a high note, he dispatched his best headline generator, economic advisor Larry Kudlow to Fox Business, to boost risk sentiment with a few strategically phrased quotes meant to bolster US-China trade talk optimism which as we noted earlier helped push risk sentiment higher overnight, and which is all the headline scanning algos were looking for:

  • WHITE HOUSE ADVISER KUDLOW SAYS IF PHASE ONE CHINA TRADE TALKS GO WELL, DECEMBER TARIFFS COULD BE TAKEN OFF
  • KUDLOW SAYS THINGS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS U.S., CHINA TRADE TALKS CONTINUE KUDLOW SAYS THINGS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS U.S., CHINA TRADE TALKS CONTINUE

Kudlow’s comments were all it took to spark a buying frenzy from the all too predictable algos, which quickly pushed the S&P above 3,000.

And so, with all due respect to William Cowan and his lengthy conspiracy theory article in Vantiy Fair, this is all it takes to send futures surging, and no, one doesn’t have to be an inside trader to expect that Trump (and Kudlow) will be doing this each and every day just to preserve the illusion that all is well.

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Is that state of California heading towards financial ruin similar to what is happening in Illinois?

(zerohedge)

California Is (Again) Teetering On The Edge Of Financial Ruin

For years, it had been speculated that California’s state-wide model of heavy regulation, expensive education, high taxes and bloated spending would eventually drive the state into financial ruin, according to a new Bloomberg Opinion piece. Over the last 15 years, the state also has had to deal with widespread blackouts and an unemployment rate that ballooned to 12% after the financial crisis.

After deficits exploded under Governor Schwarzenegger, the state eventually got back on track. Under Governor Jerry Brown, the state raised taxes again (surprise) and bumped up its sales tax. These tax hikes, combined with a recovery in housing and in the stock market, helped swing the state’s budget back into the black.

But now, the symptoms of larger problems in California are bubbling to the surface yet again. For instance, the recent “planned blackouts” by power provider PG&E to try and prevent wildfires are indicative of a crumbling energy infrastructure across the state.

Losses from recent wildfires in California have been “staggering”, totaling upwards of $400 billion in 2018. This figure represents about 1/7th of the state’s total GDP and is comprised of health costs, lost property, lost jobs and asset prices falling. It also takes into account migration out of the state.

PG&E has said that the “safety” blackouts will continue, which means that the state isn’t going to have reliable year-round electricity. This will inevitably take its toll on property values and slow migration inflows into the state.

While wildfires rage across the state, another issue is plaguing California: homelessness. The state’s homeless population has increased by 5.3% from 2010 to 2018. California is already home to almost half of the country’s homeless. We have documented, at length, the homelessness issues in areas like San Francisco, where the epidemic is reaching a fever pitch.

At the same time, government pension costs are rising across the state; faster in California than in the rest of the nation. The cost saving measures being put in place to offset this problem are degrading the state’s education system.

And so, the inevitable has happened: people are leaving the state.

In fact, a recent paper by economists Joshua Rauh and Ryan Shyu found that out-migration of top-bracket taxpayers accelerated after the state’s 2012 income tax hike. 

“Among top-bracket California taxpayers, outward migration and behavioral responses by stayers together eroded 45.2% of the windfall tax revenues from the reform,” the paper’s abstract says.

With Democrats back in the saddle, holding a supermajority in the state, California seems doomed to repeat its dysfunctional history from the early 2000’s. Making matters worse, an initiative called Proposition 13 is making it difficult for California to alleviate its burdens by raising property taxes, the op-ed notes:

But California’s political system is making it hard to respond to these pressures. Thanks to a 1978 ballot initiative called Proposition 13, California cities have stringent limits on raising revenue from local property taxes. That forces the state to provide many services, financing them with hefty income taxes. Those are inherently more unreliable than property taxes, since wealthy taxpayers can move away (while property can’t move), and since California’s income taxes fluctuate a lot because they depend so much on the profits residents earn on volatile stock prices.

“Proposition 13 must be repealed, and property taxes raised,” the piece continues, in order for the state to avoid what it calls another “dark path”. It also suggests that the state legislature pass bills to allow greater housing density and more construction throughout the state.

Only time will tell whether these proposed solutions, if implemented, would even work. But one thing is for sure: if California doesn’t do something soon, the state could become (further) living proof that creating a liberal utopia by hiking taxes and adding regulation is nothing more than a pipe dream, if not a full blown recipe for exactly how to drive an economy into the ground. 

end

Looks like Boeing is heading to oblivion

(zerohedge)

Despite Pushback Against FAA, Boeing Shares Extend Plunge As Analyst Downgrades Accelerate

Boeing said on Sunday that it told U.S. regulators “multiple times” that it had expanded the role of its MCAS system and that the FAA had observed the system operating in flight tests before the 737 Max was certified for service, according to Bloomberg.

The statement was posted online as a result of Friday’s bombshell, when instant messages between senior Boeing pilots came to light. The messages recount an experience that one pilot had during a simulator trial, where he noted that the MCAS software handling performance was “egregious”, according to Bloomberg.

The MCAS system played a direct role in two fatal crashes that killed 346 people. 

Boeing said in its statement on Sunday: “We understand and regret the concern caused by the release of the instant messages. It is unfortunate that this document, which was provided early this year to government investigators, could not be released in a manner that would have allowed for meaningful explanation.”

It continuedBoeing engaged in an extensive process with the FAA to determine pilot training requirements for the 737 MAX 8. This process was a complex, multiyear effort that involved a large number of individuals at both Boeing and the FAA. This effort itself was just a part of a much larger regulatory process for the design, development and certification of the 737 MAX 8.”

 

Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg

On Friday, the FAA spoke out against Boeing for not sharing the transcripts of the messages, even though the company had discovered them months earlier. The documents were turned over to the Justice Department in February, about a month before the second deadly crash. The company says it didn’t inform the FAA, because the regulator is “a subject of the same criminal investigation.”

The messages were between Mark Forkner, who was Boeing’s Chief Technical Pilot for the 737 and another technical pilot, Patrik Gustavsson. The two pilots raised “multiple concerns” about the MCAS system, including not being given data by the company’s test pilots and pointing out “troubling behavior” during simulator tests.

Forkner had earlier assured the FAA that the MCAS system was benign and didn’t need to be included in flight manuals. In 2016, the FAA had approved this request from the company.

But in the messages, Forkner had said that the MCAS system was “running rampant” in the simulator. “Granted, I suck at flying, but even this was egregious,” Forkner, who is now a Southwest pilot, said.

“So I basically lied to the regulators (unknowingly),” he continued. 

But then, two months later, Forkner emailed the FAA to remind them that the MCAS was not going to be included in flight manuals.

Forkner’s lawyer said: “If you read the whole chat, it is obvious that there was no ‘lie,’. The simulator was not reading right and had to be fixed to fly like the real plane. Mark’s career — at Air Force, at FAA, and at Boeing — was about safety. And based on everything he knew, he absolutely thought this plane was safe.”

The timing of this incident couldn’t be worse for Boeing. The company was on the fringe of once again trying to rebuild trust from the public and the commercial return of its Max now isn’t likely until early 2020. The delays have cost Boeing $8.4 billion and the company’s CEO, Dennis Muilenburg, is at risk of losing his job.

House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio called the messages a “smoking gun” and called for Muilenberg to resign.

Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned said: “The text messages, as reported, appear to take issues to a next level, suggesting misleading statements from Boeing during the certification process. We need to learn more details before coming to a conclusion regarding what this news means in terms of any legal actions, implications for management, and impact on the timing for a Max return to service.”

Seth Seifman, an analyst with JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a note Friday: “From a technical perspective, the revelation need not affect the timing but, in our view, there is a political/public relations aspect of returning the Max. Boeing, regulators, and carriers have to sell the technical and cultural changes credibly — and while the impact is difficult to quantify, the news is negative.”

Boeing sent the pilots’ messages to the Department of Transportation on Thursday evening, which was followed by a letter from the FAA demanding more information from Boeing’s CEO.

FAA Administrator Steve Dickson said: “I understand that Boeing discovered the document in its files months ago. I expect your explanation immediately regarding the content of this document and Boeing’s delay in disclosing the document to its safety regulator.”

The FAA didn’t make any comments as to whether or not the revelation would set the timeline for the 737 Max back further. Meanwhile, regulators have required Boeing to perform a new safety analysis of the MCAS system and are requiring “multiple tests that weren’t done prior to the jet’s original certification in 2017.”

Boeing’s CEO then called Steve Dickson to respond to the concerns, according to the company, who admitted they are still at the behest of the FAA as it relates to returning the 737 Max back to commercial service.

“We’ll continue to follow the path to certification as currently outlined by the FAA,” the company said. 

However, despite the CEO’s efforts to rebuild confidence, Boeing shares tumbled on Monday, extending the previous session’s sharp drop after the planemaker received at least two analyst downgrades on increased risk related to the company’s best-selling 737 Max jet.

UBS wrote that the news “reinforces the perception of and heightens the potential of incomplete disclosure, which inherently puts more money/trust & time at stake.”

The firm cut its view to neutral from buy, and its price target to $375 from $470.

“We can no longer defend the shares in light of the latest discoveries, discoveries which significantly increase the risk profile for investors,” wrote Credit Suisse analyst Robert Spingarn, who called the news “indefensible.”

Credit Suisse cut its view on the stock to neutral from outperform and slashed its price target to $323 from $416. The news “may shatter the fragile trust between regulators and BA,” increasing political risk and potentially undermining public confidence in the aircraft, “which could have [long-term] demand implications.”

The damage to Boeing’s brand, it added, “could also metastasize to other BA products.”  

end
Japan’s Softbank takes control of We Work with a $6.5 billion bailout. Next on the list will be a bailout of Softbank. This is an accident waiting to happen!
(zerohedge)

SoftBank To Take Control Of WeWork With $6.5 Billion Bailout

Less than a week we reported that according to the Nikkei, Softbank was set to provide WeWork with a $5 billion bailout loan, one which we dubbed tongue in cheek a pre-petition DIP loan.

It now appears our assessment was accurate, because moments ago CNBC’s David Faber confirmed that WeWork appears to have snubbed a debt deal being arranged by JPM (arguably due to its exorbitant interest rate which was rumored to be between 8% and 15%), and was instead set to hand over control to Japan’s venture capital debacle, SoftBank, which is set to spend $4-5 billion on new WeWork equity, in a deal which values WeWork around $8 billion (we suppose this is premoney valuation), and which together with WeWork’s existing ownership, would grant SoftBank full control over the flaming fiasco that is WeWork, whose valuation has crashed from $47BN a few months ago to less than $8BN.

 

As Dow Jones adds, the SoftBank investment would total $6.5 billion, including a $5 billion loan, which means its equity investment would be “only” $1.5 billion.

In other words, SoftBank is throwing even more good money after a vanity investment whose value is arguably zero, but because SoftBank wants to be able to still show idiotic slides such as this one…

… without inspiring riotous laughter, it has no choice but to buy WeWork a few more quarters of breathing room, just so SoftBank isn’t forced to mark its investment at zero. And speaking of the $5BN in new capital, which the company desperately needed as it would have run out of cash as soon as next month, it will be WeWork – which currently burns through $3 billion per year -roughly 18 months of time unless somehow the company manages to slash its cash burn… which it can of course do, but it will also cripple its revenue, as its entire “scalable” business model is premised upon selling one dollar for 50 cents.

Take that model away, and SoftBank just threw away another $5 billion. What happens then? Well, there’s a tweet for that too.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries

Just look at what Gabbard hammered Clinton on.  She is a good person, wrong party

(Tom Luongo)

“I Stand Against Everything She Represents” – Gabbard Hammers Tired, Sick, Fragile Hillary

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Tulsi Gabbard has stones. She has the kind of stones born of a life dedicated to the cause of serving others.

She is the direct opposite of Hillary Clinton, for whom all causes serve herself and her enormous narcissism and pathology.

So seeing Gabbard go directly after Hillary Clinton after her debate performance the other evening where she explicitly called out both the New York Times and CNN (the hosts of the debate) for the hit jobs on her puts to rest any idea she’s someone else’s stalking horse.

Two weeks ago I asked if five tweets from President Trump changed U.S. foreign policy for good, Gabbard does him two better with these three tweets of absolute, Oscar Wilde-like beauty.

Tulsi Gabbard

@TulsiGabbard

Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a …

Tulsi Gabbard

@TulsiGabbard

concerted campaign to destroy my reputation. We wondered who was behind it and why. Now we know — it was always you, through your proxies and ...

Tulsi Gabbard

@TulsiGabbard

powerful allies in the corporate media and war machine, afraid of the threat I pose.

It’s now clear that this primary is between you and me. Don’t cowardly hide behind your proxies. Join the race directly.

There is so much goodness to unpack in these tweets it is almost beyond my ability to do so.

Clearly, Gabbard may have real problems with Donald Trump as president but she’s learned very quickly from him that the best way to deal with Hillary and her media quislings is to attack them without mercy.

Gabbard throws down the gauntlet here outing Hillary as the mastermind behind the DNC strategy of allowing the current crop of future losers to fall all over themselves to alienate as many centrist voters as possible.

This paves the way for Hillary to swoop in on her broom, pointed hat in hand, and declare herself the savior of the Democratic Party’s chances to defeat Donald Trump next November.

Remember that leading up to the debate Gabbard was going to boycott the event because it was such a corrupted event and stage-managed to showcase the chosen ‘front-runners’ — Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.

It makes sense to me that she decided at the last minute to join the debate after the Times piece just to ensure she got the national platform to openly call out the corruption in the same breath as attacking Trump for his, to this point, disastrous foreign policy mistakes.

She emerged from that debate as the only candidate with any moral compass capable of pointing in a single direction. Warren made a fool of herself responding with bromides about leaving in the ‘rightt way’ indistinguishable from any other presidential puppet of the last twenty years.

This is two debates in a row where Gabbard came out blazing at the front-runner, claiming a moral and ethical high ground on foreign policy that, at just over half the age of her rivals, that shows a maturity well beyond her years.

Her calling Hillary the “Queen of Warmongers” is so self-evidently true that it will reverberate far beyond Twitter into votes.

And it tells Hillary that Gabbard has zero fear of her and her political machine.

You can’t cow a person without fear who has nothing to lose.

[ZH: And Gabbard was not done – she ripped into Hillary’s terrible legacy in a Friday night “Tucker Carlson Tonight” interview.]

During her discussion with Fox News host Tucker Carlson, Gabbard framed Clinton’s opposition as being not only against her candidacy, but against “every veteran in this country, every service member, every American, anyone watching at home fighting for peace and who was calling for an end to these regime change wars.”

“Ultimately she knows she can’t control me,” Gabbard said, responding to Carlson’s question about why Clinton is taking aim at her. “I stand against everything that she represents and if I’m elected president, if I’m the Democratic nominee and elected president she will not be able to control me. She won’t be able to manipulate me. She won’t be able to continue to work from behind the curtains, to continue these regime change wars that have been so costly.”

The Democratic presidential candidate said the blood of her “brothers and sisters in uniform” killed in Iraq, a “war she championed,” is “on her hands.”

“I am calling for an end to these regime change wars. This is why she’s speaking out strongly and smearing my character and trying to undermine my campaign,” she said.

“Just as she is doing this to me, this is what will happen to anybody who is doing the same.”

Responding to a question from the Fox News host about the massive media and political opposition from both parties to her foreign policy positions, Gabbard noted that it happened as soon as she announced her candidacy.

” And now we know exactly why. It’s because I am standing up and speaking out strongly against the Hillary Clinton legacy, the warmongering legacy of waging these regime change wars, continuing to escalate these tensions between the United States, nuclear armed countries like Russia, China, this nuclear arms race bringing more profits to the military-industrial complex. “

Bullies like Hillary never learn that lesson until they are humiliated beyond recognition.

Moreover, when you look at this sequence of events it’s clear that the DNC, Hillary and everyone else close to the corridors of power fear Gabbard’s rise. If they weren’t they wouldn’t be putting out smears in the New York Times.

They wouldn’t be spending millions on social media trolls to discredit her in the public fora.

The first rule of politics is “You never attack down.”

Well, Hillary attacked down. The Times attacked down. The DNC, by gaming the debate rules, attacked down. And that spells disaster for anyone who does it.

Just ask Rudy Guiliani.

This was the exchange that ended Rudy’s political career. 150 seconds of truth-telling that ignited a movement which culminated in the election of Donald Trump.

Gabbard is following that same course. The difference between her and Dr. Paul is that she’s less polite. But as to their moral clarity there is little difference. And she shouldn’t be polite. The stakes are higher today than they were in 2008.

The people Gabbard is up against are even more ruthless since Hillary intends to win, whereas the Republicans in 2008 were fighting for the right to lose to her at the time.

Gabbard’s rise in popularity among Trump voters and centrists is born of the same exhaustion the American people have with endless wars for globalism. She is Trump’s Kryptonite.

The party she represents is irrelevant. By wrapping herself in the mantle of the front-runner for the nomination is not delusional, it’s the most strategic thing she’s done to date.

It’s also becoming more and more realistic as the days go on.

Because by responding to Hillary’s ham-fisted attempts to position herself as the voice of reason, Gabbard clarifies for everyone just how sick and bile-filled Hillary is by outing her as the delusional one.

And reminding everyone that Hillary is the architect of the very policies in the Middle East that Trump is now taking heat for trying to unwind.

Gabbard knows what the plan is. She was there in 2016 when Hillary stole the nomination from Bernie Sanders and quit her position in the DNC because of it.

Even Trump knows that foreign policy and foreign entanglements will be the big ticket issue for this election cycle.

Why?

Because Gabbard has single-handedly made it so.

Trump is already running against her by pulling back from Syria, looking for peace options in Afghanistan, firing John Bolton while using proxies and, yes, Vladimir Putin to assist him in fixing his myriad mistakes of the first thirty months of his presidency.

Hillary trying to position herself as the one who can save the Middle East from Trump’s bumbling is laughable and Gabbard just laughed in Hillary’s face.

Calling everyone who voices any dissent from foreign or domestic policy orthodoxy a Russian agent is a losing proposition. It belies reality and what people see with their own eyes.

Americans want better relations with Russia now World War III. Trump’s popularity has risen since he backed off on starting a war with Iran.

The media spent four years marginalizing Dr. Paul. The RNC stole the nomination from him just as surely as the DNC stole the nomination from Bernie. As the people in the U.K. are finding out, their votes don’t matter.

Democracy doesn’t matter, only the fever dreams of the soulless and the power mad who think they run the world. Look at what Hillary has become, not what you remember her to be.

She’s a tired, sick, fragile woman whose bitterness and evil is literally eating her up from the inside out. Have you noticed that she hasn’t been photographed standing up for months?

She’s the epitome of everything wrong with America and, in fact, the world and Tulsi Gabbard just stood up and laughed at her for still thinking she was the Emperor when in reality she’s The Joker.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon to assist me in helping you expose the frauds and liars whose perversions of truth threaten the fabric of civil society.  Install the Brave Browser to make it harder for them to track you and marginalize similar voices.

end

Mifsud is the genesis of Russiagate.  This will probably bring down Brennan and his gang

(Gateway)

Mifsud’s Phones Obtained by Durham Have UK Sim Cards Tying Them to the UK — AND BACK TO JOHN BRENNAN

General Michael Flynn’s attorney Sidney Powell a few days ago requested that the DOJ turn over the contents of two phones related to Joseph Mifsud.  We now know those phones were from the UK, the country that is more suspect than Russia ever was!

Sidney Powell on Tuesday demanded the DOJ “produce evidence that has only recently come into [the DOJ’s] possession. This evidence includes the data and metadata of the following two devices:”

Powell wrote in her request –

“This information is material, exculpatory, and relevant to the defense of Mr. Flynn, and specifically to the “OCONUS LURES” and agents that western intelligence tasked against him likely as early as 2014 to arrange — unbeknownst to him — “connection” with certain Russians that they would then use against him in their false claims. The phones were used by Mr. Joseph Mifsud.”

We were the first to point out that there was more than one spy working to derail the Trump team back in 2015 in our post in June 2018.  The President retweeted information in our post only to be ridiculed by the corrupt media – to this day Wikipedia claims Trump was incorrect –

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Wow, Strzok-Page, the incompetent & corrupt FBI lovers, have texts referring to a counter-intelligence operation into the Trump Campaign dating way back to December, 2015. SPYGATE is in full force! Is the Mainstream Media interested yet? Big stuff!

Of course you can imagine how General Flynn’s brother reacted after reading attorney Powell’s request – like any good brother would –

Joseph J. Flynn ⭐️⭐️⭐️@JosephJFlynn1

OCNUS LURES… ????! bunch of traitorous God Damned Creeps!….@SidneyPowell1 @GenFlynn @BarbaraRedgate @GeorgePapa19 @realDonaldTrump @flynn_neill @GoJackFlynn @RealSLokhova @lofly727 https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1184211806174081024 

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

Developing…

Flynn lawyer @SidneyPowell1 is demanding the DOJ “produce evidence that has only recently come into [the DOJ’s] possession” —

The phones used by Joseph Mifsud.

View image on Twitter

We found out soon that the phones noted by Powell were connected to the UK –

Giulio Occhionero@g_occhionero

Both Mifsud’s Sims in @SidneyPowell1 request are British, as you can clearly deduct from serial numbers. This was obviously thought in advance as a strategy to buy time and to exclude all his Italian contacts from scrutiny. Check the country number.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Italian Occhionero believes Italy is also connected to the Spygate scandal and he asked a good question about the phones noted by Powell –

Giulio Occhionero@g_occhionero

A little note that can be helpful to @SidneyPowell1 and many other people. Why Italian authorities have provided Mifsud’s British phones and Sims but not the Italian ones that would show his network in Italy?

Others are saying that if the UK is involved, perhaps an outfit named Hakluyt should be looked into –

 

Greg Rubini@GregRubini

5. Mifsud blackberries had a British SIM?
hmmm…

if I was Gen. Mike Flynn lawyer, Sidney Powell @SidneyPowell1 , I would look into Hakluyt…

View image on Twitter

Greg Rubini@GregRubini

6. HAKLUYT is a British PRIVATE spy Agency, with Headquarters in Mayfair, London.

the most EXCLUSIVE and the most expensive part of London.
between Bond Street and Hyde Park.

Hakluyt does the dirty jobs that MI5, MI6, GCHQ are not allowed to do.

Hakluyt has connections around the world –

Greg Rubini@GregRubini

7. Hakluyt officers are former MI6 and GCHQ.

Hakluyt has HQ in London, and subsidiaries in New York, Sydney, Singapore,
Tokyo, Mumbai (India).

quite a network…

and LOTS of Money
.https://www.hakluytandco.com

Greg Rubini@GregRubini

8. take a look at the HAKLUYT Advisory Board…

the Who’s Who…
Execs of Microsoft, Sony, Johnson & Johnson, Unilever, Mitsubishi,
Central Bank of Argentina…
and Iain Lobban, fmr GCHQ Director
. https://www.hakluytandco.com/advisory_board

We were the first to report in May 2018 that the UK had more to do with the Spygate sham than Russia ever did.

This appears more and more accurate by the day.  George Papadopoulos was set up in the UK by  Stefan Halper, Joseph Mifsud, Alexander Downer and others.  Christopher Steele, is a former MI6 and he is behind the bogus Steele Dossier.  And of course, now General Flynn was set up in the UK in an attempt to tie him to Russia.  Downer, Halper and Mifsud are all connected to Hakluyt –

Greg Rubini@GregRubini

9. many of the guys involved with the Spy / entrapment Operations of Gen. Flynn and George Papadopoulos are connected with HAKLUYT.

Greg Rubini@GregRubini

10. Alexander Downer, Stefan Halper (and Joseph Mifsud) are all connected with HAKLUYT.

Alexander Downer was even on the Board of Directors of Hakluyt
from 2008 to 2014…

And of course, John Brennan is connected to Hakluyt as well.

Greg Rubini@GregRubini

11. and guess WHO ELSE is connected with Hakluyt….
.

View image on Twitter

Greg Rubini@GregRubini

12. yes, that’s him !

All Roads lead to Brennan

(here pictured in the Hakluyt New York Office, at 540 Madison Avenue, NYC)
.

View image on Twitter

All roads to Russia run through and to the UK.  And all roads lead to John Brennan.

UPDATE:  Brennan took unofficial foreign intelligence compiled by contacts, colleagues, and associates—primarily from the UK, but also from other Five Eyes members, such as Australia.

Individuals in official positions in UK intelligence, such as Robert Hanniganhead of the UK Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ, Britain’s equivalent of the National Security Agency)—partnered with former UK foreign intelligence members. Former MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove, former Ambassador Sir Andrew Wood, and private UK intelligence firm Hakluyt all played a role.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Let us close out tonight with this discussion with Kevin Shipp and Greg Hunter

After Trump War Only One Party Will Be Standing – Kevin Shipp

Former CIA Officer and whistleblower Kevin Shipp says the political war over removing President Trump from office is heating up, and when it’s over, things will never be the same. Shipp explains, “We are already seeing a brewing civil war in the civilian population in the United States. There is a war in Washington D.C. between (Congressman) Schiff and the others that are trying to eliminate the people’s choice for President by American voters. That’s what is going on. . . . You can see the violence on the streets, and it’s getting worse and worse against Trump supporters. This is going to escalate almost monthly, in my view, as we see more violence and more splits in Washington D.C. It is so seminal all the way down to the corruption we are talking about, there has got to be only one party left standing. That is either the Trump Administration or the DNC and some of the globalists that want Trump out of there. Obviously, if the progressive Marxists win, they will want to change our Constitution. Only one of them is going to win and be left standing. That’s how deep, dark and powerful it is. How many senior level officials are involved?  Only one party is going to be left standing, and it’s going to get nastier and uglier by the month.”

Some say that there have been no arrests or prosecutions, and patriots are getting frustrated with what seems to be inaction. Shipp says there may be a good reason for the Trump Administration to go slowly in dismantling the Deep State globalists in the government that are trying to kick Trump out of office. Shipp contends, “We are talking current and former high level U.S. government and former officials and heads of big U.S. corporations, and if these people were all taken down at the same time, it would cause a crisis in the U.S. government and instability. What that would do is affect the stock market dramatically. You may see a crash. You may see a devaluation in the U.S. dollar and on and on. This could cause massive problems for the U.S. economy. We are holding out hope that this is the reason for delaying to make this slow enough so it doesn’t affect the ability of the U.S. government and the stability of the U.S. economy. So, it is very possible that’s what’s going on.”

Shipp is not worried about government kicking down your door. He worries about out of control civilians going on a rampage. Shipp says, “You need to understand there is a crisis coming. There is war in Washington. There is war in the streets between the two cultural factions, and people need to protect themselves. I am not that concerned about government black booted thugs breaking into our houses. What I am concerned about is roving gangs of thugs hitting a fevered pitch breaking into homes, killing people and taking their things. That’s where we are heading. People have got to understand they have to protect themselves. The best way to do that is plan ahead. No one knows when this is going to happen . . . point is people need to be preparing now for this because it is coming.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with former CIA Officer and counter-terrorism expert Kevin Shipp.

-END-

World economic news:

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

 

 

 

2 comments

  1. There was MASSIVE weekend chaos in Beirut, Lebanon, perhaps you missed that?

    Like

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