OCT 24//GOLD UP $8.75 TO $1501.75 AND SILVER IS UP 22 CENTS TO $17.79 ON NEWS OF A HUGE INCREASE IN POMO EXTENDING TO THE 2ND QUARTER OF 2020//AGAIN QUEUE JUMPING AT THE GOLD AND SILVER COMEX//BORIS JOHNSON CALLS FOR AN ELECTION OF DEC 12: WILL PARLIAMENT ALLOW THIS ELECTION//TODAY’S POMO A MASSIVE 134 BILLION DOLLARS///?

GOLD:$1501.75 UP $8.75(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.79 UP 22 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold : $1503.10

 

silver:  $17.80

we are now entering options expiry week
comex options on gold/silver expire on:  Monday Oct 28
LBMA options expire on Thursday Oct 31 as does the OTC options.
Gold and silver will be subdued in price for the entire week
silver oi numbers will start to decline as spreaders begin to liquidate their criminal program

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/18

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 10/23/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 10/23/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:09:48
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,489.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/23/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/25/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 5
152 C DORMAN TRADING 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
690 C ABN AMRO 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 14 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 2 1
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 18 18
MONTH TO DATE: 11,937

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 18 NOTICE(S) FOR 1800 OZ (0.0248 tonnes

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  11,937 NOTICES FOR 1,193,700 OZ  (37.129 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR OCT

 

 

106 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 530,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1426 for 7,130,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7423 DOWN 44 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7466 DOWN 1

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL  SIZED 252 CONTRACTS FROM 214,529 UP TO 214,781 WITH THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  836 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  836 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 836 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 836 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.180 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.165     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

YESTERDAY,WE HAD A VERY LITTLE ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS SILVER WAS QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE BOX ……..  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (9 CENTS HIGHER). HOWEVER OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 1088 CONTRACTS. OR 5.44 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

19,703 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,703 CONTRACTS) OR 98.52 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1094 CONTRACTS OR 5.47 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  98.52 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.07% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1738.26   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 629, WITH THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 836 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY GOOD SIZED: 1465 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 836 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 252  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.57 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.074 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 154% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 106 NOTICE(S) FOR 530,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.165 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 11,929 CONTRACTS, TO 637,457 ACCOMPANYING THE $8.40 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6632 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  6632 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 637,457,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 18,561 CONTRACTS: 11,929 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6632 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 18,561 CONTRACTS OR 1,856,100 OZ OR 57.73 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $8.40 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 57.73  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED. THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $8.40) .THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS THE TOTAL OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS 18,561 CONTRACTS OR 57.73 TONNES..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 117,685 CONTRACTS OR 11,768,500 oz OR 366.04 TONNES (18 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6538 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 366.04 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 366.04/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.30% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5053.07  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    509.57  TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 11,929 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($8.40)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6632 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6632 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 18,561 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6632 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 11,929 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 57.73 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A RATHER TAME GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.40 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  8 notice(s) filed upon for 800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $8.75 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD…

INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48  TONNES

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 252 CONTRACTS from 214,529 UP TO 214,781 AND CLOSER TO FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  836  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 836 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 252  CONTRACTS TO THE 836 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1088 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.440 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.165 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 836 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.70 POINTS OR 0.02%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 231.22 POINTS OR 0.87%   /The Nikkei closed UP 125.22 POINTS OR 0.55%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .27%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0726 /Oil UP TO 55.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0726 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0738 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)Mish Shedlock goes over the numbers from China and states that their growth is far worse than reported..same for the USA

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

ii)It seems that Beijing will not raise USA agri purchases until year two of the trade deal

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Europe

Europe spending binge is also slowing and thus GDP will falter

(Lacalle/Mises)

ii)Germany

Germany falls into a recession as employment falls for the first time in 6 years
(zerohedge)

iii)ECB Draghi’s parting words to Europe.  For 8 years, he never increased rates once. He leaves with Q E to Eternity whichis good for gold. He is keeping interest rates in the negative column

(zerohedge)

iv)Brexit/UK

Our resident expert on the Brexit affair gives his take on what is going to happen
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

v)UK

As expected Boris Johnson calls for fresh elections on Dec 12.2019.  He needs 2/3 of parliamentarians votes to proceed wit the election.
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iraq/USA

Iraq urges the UN to kick out the USA

(zerohedge)

ii)Syria

Car bombs rock Northern Syria in heavily populated areas and this is no doubt the work of iSIS. As we reported to you when the USA eft, Isis escaped the prisons and this is the result of that
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)this is a good one!!  Two millennial junior bankers ran a global insider trading scam stretching from Manhattan to Monaco.

The two lovers cannot be found but already a VP at Goldman Sachs has been arrested plus one other individual

quite a story..

(zerohedge)

ii)Finland //Nokia

Nokia crashes!!

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Craig Hemke believes lie I do that central banks are beginning to panic.  He expects negative rates across the globe which will be great for gold and silver. The world’s global economies will implode before the USA gets to zero bound.

(Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA))

ii)We are getting a rush to find gold in the ground

(Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)This is fascinating: The New York Fed’s data on Repo loans disappears.  What are they trying to hide?

(Pam and Russ Martens/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

ZEROHEDGE

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Another 134 billion in liquidity provided as cash is nowhere to be seen.  They blame Brexit,  The real reason is the huge sucking from the USA government as their deficit of 1.2 trillion dollars is creating this massive shortage of dollars.  It is interesting that the NY Fed is hiding a lot of this repo data from us. (see Pam And Russ Martens)

(zerohedge)

b)Another good indicator of poor growth in the USA: tumbling durable goods orders
(zerohedge)

c)Housing is such a big part of uSA GDP..today new homes sales slow in Sept. plus prices are plunging to its lowest levels in two years(zerohedge)

d)Markit PMI rises in October but employment and new orders slump.  I would not put any credence to Markit numbers as they are always bullish.  Put more emphasis on the ISM mfg number

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)What were FBI agents doing in Italy spying on Trump’s election people like Papadopoulos?  The Italian

connection is Mifsud, the genesis of the this entire sordid affair

(associated press )

b)what a riot:  Trump cancels subscriptions to the New York Times and Washington Post which will save thousands of taxpayer dollars

Just cannot wait to see the reaction from these guys

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 11,929 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 638,896 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $8.40 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6632 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 6632   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6632 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 18,561 TOTALCONTRACTS IN THAT 6632 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 11,929 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT ROSE BY $8.40. AS WELL, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  18,561 CONTRACTS OR 1,856,100 OZ OR 57.73 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 208 contracts still standing for a GAIN of 41 contracts. Yesterday we had 8 notices served upon so we have another good of a gain of 49 contracts or an additional 4900 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers/official sector in their attempt to find physical metal on this side of the pond.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a LOSS of 56 contracts and thus the OI DECREASED to 898.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by A HUGE 10,120 contracts UP to 479,011.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 18 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  1800 OZ. (0.0559 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 252 CONTRACTS FROM 214,529 UP TO 214,781 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 113 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 22 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 40 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 18 CONTRACTS OR 90,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 52 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 460. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 1546 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 157,694.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 106 notice(s) filed for 530,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 283,705  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  251,731  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 24/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
18 notice(s)
 1800 OZ
(0.0559 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
190 contracts
(19000 oz)
0.5909 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
11,937 notices
1,193,700 OZ
37.129 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into HSBC; 2900.01  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 2900.01  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ Today  a small amount  arrived

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

We had 0 adjustment of out Delaware:

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 18 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,937) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (208 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (18 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,212,700 OZ OR 37.72 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (11,937 x 100 oz)  + (208)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (18 x 100 oz )which equals 1,212,700 oz standing OR 37.72 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 49 contracts OR 4900 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical on this side of the pond. There is no doubt that these guys need to put out fires springing up everywhere!!

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT…..   37.72 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 3 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.60155 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 70.325

TONNES- 2.60155 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 67.723 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.773 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,133.586 oz or  35.773 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,188,990.966 oz 254.712 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 24 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 633,038.962 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1200,968 oz
CNT
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
106
CONTRACT(S)
(530,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
7 contracts
 35,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1426 contracts

7,130,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   597,626.140 OZ  JPMorgan again resumes deposits after a one day holiday. Prior to yesterday they had 6 straight deposits.

ii) Into CNT: 603,362.795 oz

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.8 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.06% of all official comex silver. (160.8 million/314.9 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,200,988.935  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks:  597,626.14 oz  (delivered to JPMorgan)

ii) Out of CNT: 35,412.822 oz

total:  633,038.962 oz

 

We had 3 adjustments:

i) Out of CNT:  442,616.895 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) Out of Delaware: 496,483.171 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of Delaware

iii) Out of I- Delaware: 80,024.880 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of I D

the later two (Delaware) were settlements.

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.793 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.426 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 106 contract(s) FOR 530,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1426 x 5,000 oz = 7,130,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (113) and the number of notices served upon today 106 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1426 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (113)- number of notices served upon today (106) x 5000 oz equals 7,165,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE GAINED 18 contracts or an additional 90,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 106 notice(s) filed for 530,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  71,435 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 59,669 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 59,669 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 298 million  OZ 42.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.39% ((OCT 24/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.81% to NAV (OCT 24/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.39%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.11 TRADING 14.69///DISCOUNT 2.89

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 23/2016′ WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $0.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE : A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.45 TONNES//GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

OCT 24/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 918.48 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 690 TRADING DAYS: 31.17 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 590 TRADING DAYS: A NET 135.97 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 24/2019: WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.963 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.797 MILLION OZ//

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

OCT 24/2019:

:

 

Inventory 377.834 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO  1.94/ and libor 6 month duration 1.91

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.93%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.94

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Craig Hemke believes lie I do that central banks are beginning to panic.  He expects negative rates across the globe which will be great for gold and silver. The world’s global economies will implode before the USA gets to zero bound.

(Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA))

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Central banks begin to panic

 Section: 

10:15a ET Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Something about the world economy is panicking central banks, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money.

Hemke writes: “Even I have been shocked by how quickly the central banks have moved to perpetuate the illusion of normalcy. And if the links from just the past few days are any indication, the central bankers are just getting started. Expect negative interest rates and unlimited debt monetization in the months ahead as the central banks literally empty their ‘toolbox’ in a desperate attempt to maintain order. Already The Fed is publishing research pieces that extoll the alleged virtues of negative interest rates. …”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Central Banks Begin to Panic” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/central-banks-begin-to-panic-craig-hemk…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

We are getting a rush to find gold in the ground

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Gold’s rally drives a rush to one of metal’s final frontiers

 Section: 

By Felix Njini
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Step aside, Canada, Australia, and South Africa: West Africa is fast becoming the hottest ticket in gold mining.

Producers and prospectors are pouring money into the region as prices rally and the industry at the southern tip of the continent keeps shrinking. While gold miners face a dearth of new discoveries globally, large parts of West Africa have barely been explored. The deposits tend to be shallow — meaning easy access — and relatively low-cost.

… 

At least two new projects started up this year and a further two are scheduled for 2020. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. is also expanding and modernizing its Obuasi mine in Ghana and Canada’s Iamgold Corp. is considering a new operation in Senegal. In July, Resolute Mining Ltd. agreed to buy another West Africa-focused producer. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-23/gold-s-rally-is-drivi…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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END

This is fascinating: The New York Fed’s data on Repo loans disappears.  What are they trying to hide?

(Pam and Russ Martens/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: New York Fed’s repo loan data disappears

 Section: 

12:30p ET Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Wall Street on Parade’s Pam and Russ Martens note today, has begun obscuring the data on its internet site about the hundreds of billions of dollars it lately has delivered to Wall Street banks in the name of strengthening the world financial system. The operation, the Martenses write, seems to be violating the Dodd-Frank Act, which requires more accountability of the Federal Reserve.

The Martenses’ commentary is headlined “Elizabeth Warren Demands Repo Loan Answers as N.Y. Fed Repo Data Disappears” and it’s posted at Wall Street on Parade here:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/10/elizabeth-warren-demands-repo-loa…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Elizabeth Warren Demands Repo Loan Answers as NY Fed Repo Data Disappears

The Fed Is Back to Throwing Hundreds of Billions of Dollars at Wall Street

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 22, 2019 ~

From this past Friday evening through Sunday, if you clicked on any of the web pages at the New York Fed pertaining to the hundreds of billions of dollars it has been pumping out weekly to Wall Street’s securities firms since September 17, you saw the message below:

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Puts Up Site Maintenance Notice Where Listing of the Hundreds of Billions It Was Pumping Into Wall Street Had Been

We emailed the New York Fed’s media contact and asked why all of the other web pages at the New York Fed were working just fine but only its repo operation data and announcements had up and disappeared. We received no response. The web pages have since been restored with some tweaking that seems to have the intent of making this massive money spigot to Wall Street, for the first time since the financial crisis, appear to be just your ole run of the mill open market operation from your ole reliable New York Fed.

As it turns out, on Friday, October 18, the same day that the repo info disappeared at the New York Fed, Senator Elizabeth Warren, who commands a major media pulpit as one of the leading Democratic candidates for President, sent a hard-hitting letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin demanding answers as to what necessitated the Fed to have to make these loans and why the Fed announced on October 11 that it was going to extend the loans “at least through January of next year.” (As Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin also chairs the Financial Stability Oversight Council whose job it is to anticipate and prevent financial crises from occurring and destroying the U.S. economy, as occurred in 2008.)

Curiously enough, from Friday night through the weekend, when one clicked on the October 11 announcement about the money spigot staying open into January of next year, it also went to a “Site Maintenance” announcement.

Warren’s letter included footnotes that carried the url for these dead links. If the media that received copies of her letter wanted to write an article about the issue, they would have been hard-pressed to obtain the granular data from the web site of the New York Fed over the weekend.

The Fed’s announcement about extending the program into January is particularly important. After the Fed went wild during the 2007 to 2010 financial crisis and secretly pumped $29 trillion into bailing out Wall Street, with no authorization or even awareness of Congress, the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 was supposed to place tight reins on the Fed’s money printing and bailout operations.

On the matter of what the Fed is and is not allowed to do in the future, one section of Dodd-Frank mandates that “any emergency lending program or facility” must be “for the purpose of providing liquidity to the financial system, and not to aid a failing financial company and…any such program is terminated in a timely and orderly fashion.”

The Fed’s $29 trillion in cumulative bailout programs secretly stretched from December 2007 through at least July 2010. There has not been one Congressional hearing on this Wall Street bailout program that was abruptly initiated with no prior warning on September 17 and is now stretching from one calendar year into the next. The Fed also announced on October 11 that it will be buying up Treasury Bills into the second quarter of next year, starting off with a whopping $60 billion a month. (To many, this sounds like the Fed is starting another round of Quantitative Easing, picking up where it left off in the financial crisis.)

It’s also impossible to know if the Fed is lending to “a failing financial company” because the Fed is not making public where the loan proceeds are going. In the last crisis, the Fed didn’t make the names of its borrowers public until it lost a multi-year court battle. It turned out that the Fed had lent $2.5 trillion cumulatively to Citigroup, which was insolvent for much of the time it was receiving loans from the Fed.

The loans and Treasury Bill purchases are not the only forms of assistance the Fed is giving to Wall Street. It is also cutting short-term interest rates and reinvesting the maturing principal each month on the notes and bonds it holds from the last crisis. From a peak of $4.5 trillion in 2015, its balance sheet is now back to $4 trillion, increasing $253 billion just since September.

One surprising, and disturbing, sentence in Warren’s letter is this: “I do not question the actions of the New York Fed, but I write to seek clarity on why they were necessary….”

If ever there was an institution that deserved intense scrutiny, it’s the New York Fed. (See related articles below.) This must be the more reserved Presidential Candidate Warren because Senator Warren is extremely familiar with what a failed crony regulator of Wall Street the New York Fed actually is and the extreme damage that cronyism has done to the American economy.

iii) Other physical stories:

Nicholas to me:  showing no gold oz being delivered upon in the last 2 1/2 months

(courtesy Nicholas B)

Hi Bill/Harvey,

I will update the full picture to 31st October 2019 in due course. Since 12th July 2019, I have duly downloaded all COMEX delivery reports for both gold and silver.There has not been a single troy ounce delivered from either the registered category of gold or silver since 12th July (up to 22nd October). In respect of gold there are internal transfers between the registered and eligible categories, and in this period since 12th July 2019 the net transfer from eligible to registered  gold totaled just under 25 tonnes, but the evidence suggests that such transfers are absolutely meaningless since no registered gold ever leaves the depositories.

In respect of withdrawals from the  eligible gold category,1.79 tonnes was withdrawn on 2nd October 2019 and 2.21 tonnes on 9th October 2019.On all other days between 12th July 2019 and 22nd October 2019, a grand total of 0.99 tonnes (that is less than one tonne) was withdrawn in aggregate via various gossamer driblings.

I note that in Harvey’s interim report for today the statement is made:

THE DEMAND FOR GOLD AND SILVER IS RELENTLESS AND THEY WILL DRAIN THE COMEX. Does the evidence above not suggest that the past tense would be more appropriate in so far as the COMEX gold depositories have already been drained for all intents and purposes.

For many years palladium traded at less than half the price of platinum, but now the palladium premium is nearly 100% compared to platinum.The car makers probably tooled up to utilize palladium rather than  platinum in catalytic converters at the time of the  earlier price discrepancy,  but it is interesting to note that the current combined COMEX inventories of palladium are only 52,249 troy ounces,54% of which total is attributed to JP MORGAN. I quote the combined total since the (critical ) distinction between registered and eligible COMEX categories seems to have vanished into the distant ether. Perhaps it is deemed to be essential for the COMEX to maintain the illusion of at least some  physical precious metal inventory in the COMEX warehouse depositories to assist in denying to gold and silver the kind of price explosion recently enjoyed by palladium.I read with interest the recent postulation of Ted Butler:

‘In fact, the only reason COMEX silver inventories have grown over the past 8.5 years is because JPMorgan made the conscious decision to store some of its 850+ million oz hoard in the COMEX warehouses. In addition to the 157 million ounces in the JPM COMEX warehouse, I believe the bank holds another 100 million oz in other COMEX warehouses or 250 million oz or 80% of the 315 million oz total COMEX inventories. JPMorgan stores the 250 million oz it holds in the COMEX warehouses because if it became clear that only 65 million oz (the amount not owned by JPM) existed, even the brain-dead regulators would realize that JPMorgan owns almost all the silver in the COMEX warehouses.”

I remember watching live the interview given by Blythe Masters to CNN when she claimed that JP MORGAN had absolutely  no directional interest in the price of silver , since it owned NO metal for its own account.If JP Morgan’s total combined hoarding of silver in both the COMEX and LBMA is held on behalf of the US government for onward transmission to China for the ultimate redemption of a long outstanding loan , then watch out if possession of this silver is ever transferred to China and the COMEX silver inventory is commensurately reduced.

Regards

Nicholas

end

Bill Holter interview
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0726/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0738   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 0.70 POINTS OR 0.02%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 231.22 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 125.22 POINTS OR 0.55%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.50/Euro FALLS TO 1.1124

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.14/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.98/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.83 and Brent: 61.16

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.39%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.92% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.26%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.31: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.26

3k Gold at $1492.30 silver at: 17.58   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 4/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.97

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.98 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9901 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1019 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.39%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.76% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.24%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7717..

Futures Levitate Amid Earnings Barrage, Europe Hits 17 Month High Ahead Of Draghi’s Farewell Address

S&P futures and Asian stocks drifted higher and stocks in Europe hit the highest level since May 2018 as stronger than expected earnings helped investors shrug off more signs that global growth is losing momentum, despite yet another clear signal from Germany’s economy that Europe’s biggest economy is sliding into a recession. Sovereign bonds fluctuated on a busy day for central banks, with the ECB rate decision set to be the main focus.

 

Overnight Tesla shares jumped 21% in after-hours trading after the company reported an unexpected third-quarter profit; Offsetting this, on Thursday Dow futures were hit after Dow component 3M (which has a 4.2% weighting), slashed its outlook, joining Caterpillar in seeing a far less rosy end to 2019. Microsoft also posted forecast-beating profit and revenue numbers after the closing bell, although the outlook was darkened by slower-than-expected take-up of its Azure cloud services. As discussed yesterday, shares of Boeing and Caterpillar paradoxically ended about 1% higher each despite huge misses from both.

Meanwhile, European markets were sending ECB chief Mario Draghi off in style on Thursday as the former Goldman banker was set to end his 8 year tenure at the head of the European Central Bank, raising the region’s stocks to their highest in more than a year and nudging the euro towards its best month since January 2018.

 

Sentiment was boosted by earnings from Microsoft and Daimler, along with news of a ceasefire in northern Syria and fading fears of a no-deal Brexit, although lingering trade uncertainties and some below-par German data prevented even bigger gains.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose as much as 0.6% to its highest since May 2018 led by carmakers as every major national benchmark in the region climbed, despite the latest German PMI data which confirmed the manufacturing sector was mired in a deep recession, the service sector was sliding fast and German unemployment posted its first contraction in six yearsAstraZeneca raised its 2019 sales outlook again, helped by expansion in the key China market and new drugs for cancer.

Earlier in the session, gains in Asia had included a one-year high for Tokyo’s Nikkei and saw MSCI All World index, which tracks nearly 50 countries, reach its highest since late July. Asian stocks gains were led by energy producers, after oil jumped overnight and positive earnings of companies from Tesla to Sands China buoyed investor sentiment. Most markets in the region were up, with Indonesia leading gains following a rate cut by the country’s central bank. The Topix advanced 0.3%, driven by Eisai, Toyota Motor and Honda Motor. The Shanghai Composite Index closed little changed, as a rally in large banks countered declines in 360 Security Technology and Kweichow Moutai. Tesla suppliers jumped following the electric-car maker’s surprise quarterly profit.

With a quarter of the S&P having reported, analysts are expecting earnings to have declined 2.9% year-over-year, according to consensus data. As Bloomberg notes, while not a uniformly positive picture, earnings season is helping ease investor fears over the outlook for world growth. About 80% of companies in the S&P 500 have topped expectations for profits so far, though 3M, Texas Instruments and Caterpillar both highlighted the uncertainty caused by trade tensions and global economic weakness.

“People were bracing for the worst” for this reporting season, Yana Barton, fund manager at Eaton Vance Management Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “So far we’re coming in a little bit better.”

In rates, Treasuries were unchanged at 1.76% while euro-area bonds yields were steady before Draghi’s send-off.

In FX, the Swedish crown rose 0.7% after the country’s central bank said it was still planning to raise interest rates in December. Its gains pulled the Norwegian crown higher as well, despite a relatively dovish message from the Norges Bank as it left rates unchanged.

The Turkish lira slumped after Turkey’s central bank slashed its 16.5% rates by much more than expected, cutting the rate to 14.0%, far below expectations of a 15.5% after U.S. President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Turkey following a ceasefire in northern Syria.

Sterling rebounded as high as $1.2950 before sinking back under 1.29 after rising 0.3% on Wednesday. After more than three years, Britain appears closer than ever to resolving its Brexit conundrum but still has hurdles to clear.  EU member states on Wednesday delayed a decision on whether to grant Britain a three-month Brexit extension. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said if the deadline is deferred to the end of January, he would call an election.

“The Brexit battle looks like it will drag on,” economists at ANZ wrote in a note. “The UK government will not meet its current timetable of leaving the EU on 31 October, and an extension appears likely. In the meantime, Brexit uncertainty will keep weighing on UK business investment and activity.”

Elsewhere, the euro was flat at $1.1132. The Japanese yen was 0.1% higher at 108.6 per dollar and the Australian dollar was weaker at $0.6842.

In commodity markets, U.S. crude fell 38 cents to $55.59 a barrel, and brent slipped 22 cents to $60.95 as the gloomy economic data rolled in… while helping push the S&P just shy of all time highs.

To the day ahead now, and as mentioned the main highlight will be President Draghi’s final ECB meeting and subsequent press conference. The raft of earnings releases also continues, with today featuring Amazon, Visa, Intel, Comcast, AstraZeneca, Royal Bank of Scotland, Nordea Bank and Twitter. Data releases include the preliminary October PMIs from Europe and the US, as well as a number of other US releases, with the preliminary durable goods orders and new home sales figures for September, the Kansas City Fed’s October manufacturing index, and weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, we’ll get central bank policy decisions from Sweden, Turkey and Indonesia.Also, of note is US Vice President Mike Pence’s long awaited speech on China at 11am Washington time.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,011
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 396.18
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 160.74
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 515.72
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 22,750.60
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,643.74
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 26,797.95
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.02% to 2,940.92
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 38,944.93
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,693.65
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,085.66
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to -0.387%
  • Euro down 0.03% to $1.1127
  • Brent Futures down 0.7% to $60.75/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.595%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.25%
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $60.78/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,489.79
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.01% to 97.50

Top Overnight News

  • To avoid a recession in the U.S. in 2020, households need to keep spending, peace needs to break out in global trade wars, and investors can’t get spooked — by the U.S. presidential election or anything else
  • The European Central Bank and Germany finally have a window of opportunity to start repairing their fractured relationship — for the first time in years
  • Sweden’s central bank is sticking to a plan to hike interest rates within months, as policy makers look past signs of a weak labor market and slower economy in their efforts to put an end to negative rates
  • Norway’s central bank reiterated its view that interest rates will remain at the current level in the “coming period,” but said that an historically weak krone poses an inflation risk
  • Germany’s manufacturing slump is taking a harsher toll on the jobs market, adding to pressure on the government to respond with fiscal stimulus

Asian equity markets traded mixed after having failed to fully sustain the positive lead from Wall St with global markets heavily focused on earnings releases. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) were positive in which energy led the advances in Australia and with participants also engrossed in corporate updates, while sentiment in Tokyo was propped up by recent currency weakness and with double-digit percentage gains seen in Japan Display after Apple further extended an olive branch for the troubled screen manufacturer through shorter payment terms. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) were mixed after the PBoC continued with its liquidity efforts albeit at a reduced amount and with China dismissing reports of replacing Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam as political rumours, while the KOSPI (flat) underperformed its regional peers for a bulk of the session following a miss on Q3 GDP. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat as they took their cue from the lacklustre trade in T-notes, with demand restricted by the upbeat risk sentiment Japanese stocks and following mixed results at the 20yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Singapore Slowdown May be Nearing End, Central Bank Chief Says
  • Telecom Stocks Drag India Sensex Lower After Court Order on Dues
  • China Bond Investor Who Predicted Sell-Off Now Sees Recovery
  • Indonesia Cuts Key Rate for Fourth Month to Spur Economy

Major European Bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%) are higher, although some choppiness was seen in wake of soft Eurozone PMI data (although France was a bright spot). “The eurozone economy started the fourth quarter mired close to stagnation, with the flash PMI pointing to a quarterly GDP growth rate of just under 0.1%” said IHS Markit. Looking ahead, markets await a slew of US earnings, including from the likes of Comcast, and the next ECB policy announcement. Sectors are in largely in the green, with the exception of Tech (-0.6%) and Telecoms (-0.8%), with notable weakness in Nokia (-19.8%) following earnings contributing to underperformance in the former. In terms of other individual movers; strong earnings from STMicroelectronics (+5.6%), Daimler (4.0%), Hermes (+1.5%), BASF (+1.8%) and AstraZeneca (+3.6%) saw their respective stock prices advance. Meanwhile, weak earnings from Puma (-2.7%), RBS (-2.2%) and Dassault Systemes (-5.3%). Elsewhere, EDF (+2.1%) was supported by the news that it can keep operating nuclear power plants with weld issues, according to the French Nuclear Authority. Porsche (+1.4%) moved higher on the news that the Co. has formed a strategic partnership with SAP (-0.3%), who opened higher but pared gains in line with the tech sector. In terms of broker moves, Rolls Royce (-4.2%) and Telia (-1.8%) moved lower on downgrades at JPM, while Ashmore Group (+1.6%) was bid on an upgrade at Investec.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Economy Remains Close to Stagnation in October
  • Swedish Riksbank Says It Sees Grounds for December Rate Hike
  • Norway Sticks With Decision to Pause Hikes; Warns of Weak Krone
  • Germany’s Economic Downturn Worsens as Job Engine Falters

In FX, The Swedish Crown has slipped from best levels, but remains bid after the Riksbank doubled down on repo rate hike guidance and signalled that a 25 bp move is likely in December vs a more flexible timeline covering the end of 2019 and early next year. However, the path beyond suggests no further policy normalisation and in recognition of heightened uncertainty surrounding growth and inflation overseas and on the domestic front, the Bank could cut or ease via other measures if necessary. Eur/Sek is holding near the base of a circa 10.7400-10.6510 range and still net down from pre-Riksbank levels around 10.7000, while Eur/Nok is hovering just under 10.1500 within 10.1680-10.1260 parameters in wake of the Norges Bank’s policy meeting that maintained an on hold stance after September’s ¼ point rise in the depo rate given the assessment that little has changed in the ensuing period. Elsewhere, the Indonesian Rupiah is modestly softer after the BI extended its run of consecutive eases to 4 and retained a dovish bias.

  • AUD/NZD – The major fall guys on little apparent or obvious in terms of negative news and a bearish catalysts, but the Aussie and Kiwi especially seem to have fallen prey to long liquidation and a turnaround in the technical landscape after failing to extend gains through/beyond big figure and psychological levels. Aud/Usd has lost momentum through 0.6850 and Nzd/Usd on a breach of 0.6400, while the Aud/Nzd cross has corrected a bit higher above 1.0650.
  • EUR/GBP – Nowhere near the biggest G10 movers on the day, but certainly rivalling others on price action given spikes in the single currency and Sterling to 1.1163 and 1.2950 vs the Dollar respectively at one stage followed by sharp/abrupt retreats to 1.1125 and 1.2880. For Eur/Usd, French PMIs were above forecast, but ultimately no more than a flash in the pan as preliminary surveys from Germany disappointed yet again and weighed on the pan Eurozone prints. Meanwhile, Cable’s rise and fall from grace came against the backdrop of latest Brexit and UK election headlines, but probably more on positioning and jitters awaiting the EU’s verdict on another A 50 extension and PM Johnson’s reaction. Back to the Euro, ECB President Draghi’s farewell meeting and press conference loom, but expectations are low in terms of anything pertinent on new policy or guidance.
  • JPY/CHF/CAD/DXY – All relatively subdued and lacking inspiration as the Yen meanders between 108.60-75 vs the Greenback, Franc pivots 0.9900, Loonie hovers just above 1.3100 and US Dollar index rebounds off a 97.278 low to 97.532 ahead of US data.
  • EM – The Lira is still eyeing Turkish-Syria developments and international interventions after recent gains on less angst from the US in wake of the ceasefire and President Trump promising to lift sanctions if peace prevails. However, the upcoming CBRT rate call will be watched for near term direction as forecast range from no change to a 200 bp cut – see our headline feed and Research Suite for more. Usd/Try currently straddling 5.7500.

In commodities, the crude complex is slightly softer, amidst a slight pull-back from yesterday’s post-EIA Inventory data induced highs, with some choppiness seen in wake of mostly weaker than expected Eurozone PMI data. To the downside, technicians will be eyeing support at USD 54.90/bbl and USD 60.70/bbl for WTI Dec’ 19 and Brent Dec’ 19 futures respectively (11th October highs for both); to the upside yesterday’s highs for each contract are at USD 61.30/bbl and USD 56.10/bbl respectively. In terms of crude specific fundamentals, the news flow has been light. Moving to metals; Gold is slight lower, despite soft Eurozone data. Copper, meanwhile, is holding on to decent gains made yesterday; Chilean miner Codelco said that some of its shipments may be delayed as a result of the ongoing protests and strikes in the country, that have seen operations affected in at least two mines and a smelter. Despite being pressured in recent weeks, as global economic data has continued to show deterioration (particularly in China, the largest buyer of the red metal), the unrest in Chile continues to provide support to prices, notes ING.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.7%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.1%, prior -0.4%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 214,000
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.68m
  • 8:30am: Durables Ex Transportation, est. -0.2%, prior 0.5%
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 63.5
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 51, prior 50.9
  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 51
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 50.9, prior 51.1
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 701,500, prior 713,000
  • 10am: New Home Sales MoM, est. -1.61%, prior 7.1%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -2.5, prior -2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Here in the U.K., Sky News have created a pop-up news channel that doesn’t include anything about Brexit. I’ve no idea if there is so much fatigue that it’s challenging the ratings of either the England football World Cup win of 1966 or Charles and Diana’s Royal Wedding in 1981 but it’s fair to say yesterday was a nice breather from the intensity of the ongoing saga. My wife and I actually had to find something else to talk about over dinner. I’m a bit worried if it does ever end one way or the other it will expose a lack of things in common. For over half our marriage we’ve had this to discuss. Maybe we need a long extension after all. Anyway there is a small amount of new news but not much and rather than issue a pop-up EMR without Brexit news we’ll relegate in to the 12th paragraph.

Of more importance this morning will be the release of the preliminary PMIs for October, which should give us an early insight into how the global economy has fared moving into Q4 and whether any of the very recent easing of trade and Brexit tensions have managed to filter into business sentiment yet. We also have Draghi’s last ECB meeting and press conference and also Mike Pence’s long awaited speech on the future US/China relationship. When it was cancelled earlier this year it was expected to be very hawkish.

Onto the PMIs first. Last month, the deterioration in sentiment fell to new lows, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI down to 41.7, its lowest reading since June 2009, and the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI to 45.7, the lowest since October 2012. The divergence between manufacturing and services we’ve seen in recent months continued, but there started to be signs that it is closing, but in a bad way. The Eurozone’s services index fell -1.9pts to 51.6 last month, which is still in expansionary zone but the trend has been poor. The situation is even worse in Germany, where the services PMI fell -3.4pts, the sharpest drop since 2013. For today, the consensus is anticipating a modest uptick, with both the manufacturing and services PMIs for the Eurozone expected to rise three-tenths to 46.0 and 51.9 respectively. All eyes on this. For the US, expectations are for the manufacturing and services PMIs to come in at 50.9 and 51.0, close to flat from September. The US PMIs have held up better than the ISM lately, but in truth the market has reacted much more to the latter.

The other market highlight today comes from the ECB, in what will be President Mario Draghi’s last Governing Council meeting before Christine Lagarde takes over on 1 November. His final choice of tie colour will be of great interest to all. Maybe it will be a novelty bow-tie. Over his 8 years in charge, the Euro Area has emerged from its sovereign debt crisis and seen unemployment fall to 7.4%, its lowest since May 2008. However, inflation has proved stubbornly difficult to return to target (averaging 1.19% over the period), standing at just +0.8% in September, while five-year forward five-year inflation swaps stand at just 1.202%, so not exactly a vote of confidence from the markets that they expect the ECB to get inflation back up again anytime soon.

Although Draghi’s term has another week to go we thought we’d mark his last press conference with a look at the performance of our usual sweep of key global assets under his 8 year tenure. For a start the euro has weakened by -18.8% against the dollar since November 1st 2011 which likely reflects the relative shifts in monetary policy and growth over the period. The Stoxx 600 (c.121% local, 79% dollar adjusted) has lagged the top global performers namely the NASDAQ (+244%), Nikkei (198%) and S&P 500 (191%). Interestingly the best performing Euro-area sovereign is actually the BTP market (+77%) helped by the “whatever it takes” mantra and endless QE. Even though Bunds have seen yields collapse deep into negative territory, 10 years were already as low as 1.77% at the start of his reign so the 26% return (2% in dollar terms) is not actually that spectacular and is only slightly higher than Treasuries (19%). I wonder what bunds will return under Lagarde’s leadership. My not too controversial guess is that it will be a negative number.

In terms of what to look out for today, no policy change is expected after the easing package released in September, and DB’s Mark Wall wrote in his Friday preview (link here ) that he expects Draghi “to urge policy patience, Council unity and the unburdening of monetary policy with fiscal policy.” Instead, he sees a final 10bp cut to the deposit facility rate at Lagarde’s first meeting in December.

Before today’s meeting and next Friday’s resumption of their corporate purchases, Michal Jezek published a report that summarises our key views and addresses questions about CSPP 2.0: Where is the current ECB portfolio underweight relative to the CSPP benchmark based on ratings, sectors and countries? That is where their new buying is likely to be concentrated now. How many long-dated corporate bonds were bought in the past? Are purchases likely all the way up to 30 years? What are our estimates of upcoming net and gross CSPP purchases? What type of fund flows have we observed before, during and after CSPP 1.0? Where is relative value between CSPP-eligible and ineligible bonds now? You can download the report here .

Back to yesterday, and equity markets made modest advances as they reacted to a number of earnings releases, with the S&P 500 (+0.28%) and the NASDAQ (+0.19%) both rising. Boeing gained again, +1.07% after the company said they would increase production of the 737 Max from 42 to 57 per month by late 2020. Meanwhile, global bellwether Caterpillar (+1.24%) reduced their profit outlook, but their shares nevertheless rallied thanks to a more aggressive plan to return capital to shareholders. Still, Caterpillar lowered their full-year profit per share outlook range to $10.90-$11.40, having previously been $12.06 to $13.06. Revenues fell by -6% to $12.8bn. In other earnings news, semiconductor firms fell -1.93% after Texas Instruments (-7.48%) had a poor report, guiding for a 14% fall in revenue relative to last year and for fourth quarter profits to come in around 20% below analyst expectations. Elsewhere, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testified to Congress and faced tough questions regarding the company’s proposed cryptocurrency Libra, as well as about factually untrue political ads, encryption and law enforcement issues, child exploitation, and preparation for the 2020 election. Zuckerberg was deemed to have avoided any major slip ups and Facebook shares rallied +2.11% on the session. After the close, Microsoft’s (+0.51% after hours) results topped consensus estimates, though the Azure cloud-computing business line decelerated. Also, Ford (-2.61% after hours) cut its guidance as results in both China and the US disappointed, and Tesla (+20.15% after hours) gained sharply to reach a new six-month high after posting a surprise profit thanks to lower costs, compared to expectations for a quarterly loss.

Overnight in Asia markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (+0.63%) and Hang Seng (+0.47%) up while the Shanghai Comp (-0.22%) and Kospi (-0.09%) are down as they erased gains after opening higher. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat while WTI oil prices are down c. -0.80% this morning. In terms of overnight data releases, Japan’s preliminary October composite PMI came in at 49.8 (vs. 51.5 in last month) with services PMI falling by -2.5pts from last month to 50.3 while manufacturing print declined by -0.4bps to 48.5, the lowest level since June 2016. IHS Markit which compiles the survey, flagged that a recent typhoon that disrupted supply chains, and a sales tax that may have front-loaded activity, were temporary factors that could be overstating the weakness seen in the survey. South Korea’s Q3 GDP growth rate came in at +0.4% qoq (vs. +0.5% qoq expected).

In Europe yesterday the STOXX 600 up +0.11%, although technology stocks dragged on the index. In terms of the other indices, the DAX was up +0.34%, while both the CAC 40 (-0.08%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.60%) fell back. Sovereign debt continued to rally however, with Bunds (-2.4bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and gilts (-2.xbps) all gaining, while Greek ten-year yields fell -1.2bps to a fresh record low of 1.252%. Ten-year treasuries ended close to flat on the session and the curve steepened 2.0bps as the front end strengthened a touch. It was a good day for the major commodities too, with WTI and Brent up +2.73% and +2.46% respectively, as US inventory data showed a significantly larger drawdown in stockpiles than expected. The dollar traded flat, though the Turkish lira gained +1.30% after the President Trump announced that he will cancel sanctions on Turkey under a new ceasefire plan for the Syrian border.

Brexit may not be the lead story in the EMR for the first time in over a week, but to update you on where we are, the EU are currently considering the UK’s request for an extension until the end of January, although Bloomberg cited EU officials who said a decision would probably not come until Friday. It could be early next week if it requires a special council meeting due to disagreements. President Macron is the wildcard here but there is scepticism that even he would like to be responsible for a possible no-deal outcome. The length of any extension could be debated however. The advantage of a 3-month extension would be that this is what Parliament has already requested in the Benn Act. If the extension is of a different length, then the House of Commons will have to pass a motion approving the extension that the European Council decides.

The Times also reported that Prime Minister Johnson and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn met to discuss a new programme motion, which was what was defeated on Tuesday night after MPs decided they wanted more time to examine the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. It appears the talks were fairly fruitless. Briefings suggest that Downing Street will push for an election in the event that the EU offer a 3-month extension. Labour will find it harder to decline this time. Overnight, The Times has reported that PM Boris Johnson could make a third attempt to trigger a general election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act either tonight or on Monday that would force MPs to decide before the October 31 deadline whether to allow an election. Elsewhere, The Sun Politics team tweeted overnight that PM Johnson is facing a growing Tory revolt over his threat to hold a General Election before delivering Brexit. Sterling is trading flattish this morning at 1.2917.

European data yesterday didn’t raise confidence ahead of today’s PMIs, as the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence number for October fell to -7.6 (vs. -6.8 expected), its lowest level so far this year and below every analysts’ estimate on Bloomberg. We also got the INSEE’s business climate indicator for France, which fell to 105 (vs. 106 expected), while the manufacturing reading also declining 3 points to 99 (vs. 102 expected), putting it below the long-term average of 100 for the first time since March 2015.

In other news, China leapfrogged France in the World Bank’s annual rankings for ease of doing business as the country jumped to 31 in rankings from 46 last year while France remained unchanged at 32. US also improved in rankings by 2 places to 6 while the top 5 comprised of New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Denmark and South Korea.

To the day ahead now, and as mentioned the main highlight will be President Draghi’s final ECB meeting and subsequent press conference. The raft of earnings releases also continues, with today featuring Amazon, Visa, Intel, Comcast, AstraZeneca, Royal Bank of Scotland, Nordea Bank and Twitter. Data releases include the preliminary October PMIs from Europe and the US, as well as a number of other US releases, with the preliminary durable goods orders and new home sales figures for September, the Kansas City Fed’s October manufacturing index, and weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, we’ll get central bank policy decisions from Sweden, Turkey and Indonesia. Also, of note is US Vice President Mike Pence’s long awaited speech on China at 11am Washington time.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.70 POINTS OR 0.02%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 231.22 POINTS OR 0.87%   /The Nikkei closed UP 125.22 POINTS OR 0.55%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .27%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0726 /Oil UP TO 55.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0726 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0738 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Mish Shedlock goes over the numbers from China and states that their growth is far worse than reported..same for the USA

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

China’s Growth Much Worse Than Reported, What About The US?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

China doubles value of infrastructure project approvals to stave off economic slowdown amid trade war.

The South China Morning Post reports China Doubles Value of Infrastructure Project Approvals to Stave Off Slowdown.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has approved 21 projects, worth at least 764.3 billion yuan (US$107.8 billion), according to South China Morning Post calculations based on the state planner’s approval statements released between January and October this year.

The amount is more than double the size of last year’s 374.3 billion yuan (US$52.8 billion) in approvals recorded over the same period, which included 11 projects such as railways, roads and airports.

Local governments have been under increasing pressure from Beijing to support the economy, but they have less budget room due to lower tax revenues after the central government over the past year ordered individual and business tax cuts.

To fill the gap, Beijing has allowing local governments to sell more special purpose bonds, whose proceeds can only be used to fund infrastructure projects. At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Finance raised the quota for special bonds to 2.15 trillion (US$302 billion) from 1.35 trillion (US$190 billion) last year. And when local governments came close to exhausting their annual quota set this autumn, the central government brought forward a portion of their 2020 quota so they could continue to raise funding for new projects.

Infrastructure Urgency

Michael Pettis, Finance Professor, Peking University, and author of the China Financial Markets website has an interesting take infrastructure projects.

Allocation of Money

To fund the projects China Cuts Banks’ Reserve Ratios, Frees up $126 Billion for Loans.

Analysts had expected China to announce more policy easing measures soon as the world’s second-largest economy comes under growing pressure from escalating U.S. tariffs and sluggish domestic demand.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points (bps) for all banks, with an additional 100 bps cut for qualified city commercial banks. The RRR for large banks will be lowered to 13.0%. The PBOC has now slashed the ratio seven times since early 2018. The size of the latest move was at the upper end of market expectations, and the amount of funds released will be the largest so far in the current easing cycle.

The broad-based cut, which will release 800 billion yuan in liquidity, is effective Sept. 16. The additional targeted cut will release 100 billion yuan, in two phases effective Oct. 15 and Nov. 15.

Real Growth

Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

With real growth at probably half reported levels – which measure growth in activity, whether or not it is wealth enhancing – lower-than-expected growth rates are not a bad thing: they mean credit growth, while still too high, is slowing.https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3033600/china-economy-set-sink-further-us-trade-war-and-pork-crisis  via @scmpnews

China economy set to sink further, with US trade war and pork crisis to drive record low growth…

US trade war just one of many problems facing China, with pork crisis and consumption issues also expected to weigh on economy, after lowest growth rate on record.

scmp.com

Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

World Bank has just cut its GDP forecast for China to 6.1% in 2019, 5.9% in 2020, 5.8% in 2021. For this to happen, debt-to-GDP ratios would have to rise by at least 12-15 percentage points, which I think is very unlikely. I’ll bet 2021 growth is below 5% (still way too high). https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1182290805815250945 

Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

The reason “no economic crisis has ever occurred in China over the past several decades” is because, as this article sort of recognizes, Beijing has always unleashed huge surges in investment, driven by ample cheap credit, to meet any sudden contraction…http://en.people.cn/n3/2019/1010/c90000-9621508.html#.XZ81eDDvbnI.twitter 

Trade Agreement

Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

I suspect that the only thing driving “substantial progress” is election pressures in the US. I don’t think any agreement between Washington and Beijing will matter for more than few months.http://en.people.cn/n3/2019/1012/c90000-9621985.html#.XaH12DzOn_M.twitter 

Chinese Local Government Funds Run Out of Projects to Back

On October 16, the Fiancial Times reported Chinese Local Government Funds Run Out of Projects to Back.

There are not many economically viable projects for us to take on,” an official at Sichuan Development told the FT.

“We have plenty of bridges and roads already.

GDP Formula

GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports).

Whether or not the projects are viable, government spending adds to nominal GDP.

If the government paid people to spit at the moon it would add to GDP.

Arguably, that’s a far better use than dropping bombs and making enemies in the process.

Not Writing Down Losses

Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

I suspect that the only thing driving “substantial progress” is election pressures in the US. I don’t think any agreement between Washington and Beijing will matter for more than few months.http://en.people.cn/n3/2019/1012/c90000-9621985.html#.XaH12DzOn_M.twitter 

​China isn’t writing down losses, but neither is the US, EU, or any other country.

With that in mind How Badly Overstated is Chinese and US GDP?

Concern over GDP with no concern over losses and malinvestment is concern over nonsense.

end

It seems that Beijing will not raise USA agri purchases until year two of the trade deal

(zerohedge)

 

Beijing Won’t Raise US Agri Purchases Until Year Two Of Trade Deal

Thursday’s big trade news isn’t actually all that impressive. According to Bloomberg, Beijing has offered to buy $20 billion in American agricultural products a year if ‘Phase One’ of President Trump’s trade deal is eventually ratified. There is just one problem: that’s what China was buying in 2017 before President Trump started slapping tariffs on Chinese goods.

zerohedge@zerohedge

So China promises to buy $20BN… or what it was buying in agri products before trade war started

View image on Twitter

The escalation in purchases wouldn’t come until the second year after all punitive tariffs are removed (i.e. when Trump may or may notbe president): at that point, those purchases could rise to $40-$50 billion, according to BBG’s sources, who didn’t offer any specifics about the timing beyond that.

As we have reported, Beijing has already started ramping up purchases, issuing waivers for 10 million tons of soybeans bought this week, while it considers approving another 4-5 million tons of wheat, corn, sorghum and other grains.

Trump recently boasted that Beijing would buy $50 billion in American agricultural products, but he didn’t offer a time frame during which these purchases would take place.

In other trade news, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro appeared on Fox Business to discuss how a new Chinese law to protect foreign business and intellectual property will affect “phase one” of the trade deal. He added that if Beijing steals American IP, the US can always retaliate.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Europe

Europe spending binge is also slowing and thus GDP will falter

(Lacalle/Mises)

Europe’s Spending Binge Is Slowing Its Economy

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute,

The idea that governments can’t lower taxes because there is a deficit, but are free to raise all expenses even if there is a deficit can be found in many political manifestos these days. Central planners always see the economic challenges as a problem of demand, and as such cringe at the idea of prudent investment and saving. When GDP growth, gross capital formation, and consumption are lower than what Keynesians would want, they always blame the alleged problem on “too much saving.” This is a ridiculous premise based on the perception that economic cycles and excess capacity do not matter and if companies and citizens don’t spend as much as the government wants, then the public sector should spend a lot more.

That is why tax cuts are hated and government spending plans are hailed. Because tax cuts empower citizens while government spending empowers politicians. An extractive view of the economy in which politicians and some economists always consider that you earn too much and they spend too little.

The big bet of the huge increases in spending and taxes that we read about all over the eurozone is that:

a) these will not have an impact on growth,

b) they will improve public accounts and

c) they will exceed budget expectations.

However, we have empirical evidence showing that massive government spending plans and tax hikes generate the opposite effect: weaker economic growth, higher debt and larger imbalances. The probability of attacking potential growth, worsening public accounts and breaching optimistic estimates is more than high.

The empirical evidence of the last fifteen years shows a range of fiscal multipliers of public spending that, when positive, is very poor (below 1) and in most countries, especially with open and indebted economies, the fiscal multiplier of higher government spending has been negative.

Fiscal multipliers are particularly negative in times of weakness in public finances, and nobody can deny that the eurozone has exhausted its fiscal space after more than three trillion euro of expansive budgets in a decade.

More government spending will not spur growth in economies where the public sector already absorbs more than 40% of the GDP, and where the previous large stimulus plans have generated more debt and stagnation.

Adding tax hikes to the formula is even more damaging. The IMF analyzes 170 cases of fiscal consolidation in 15 advanced economies from 1980 to 2010 and finds a negative impact of a 1% increase in taxes of 1.3% in growth two years later.

Additionally, the vast majority of empirical studies going until 1983 and especially in the last fifteen years, show a negative impact of tax increases on economic growth and a neutral or negative impact of increases in spending on growth. Moreover, studies on the effect of bigger tax hikes on tax revenues reveal a negative impact on receipts. In fact, a 1% increase in the marginal tax rate may reduce the taxable income base by up to 3.6%.

The risk for the eurozone is huge because one of the main reasons for its stagnation is precisely the chain of massive fiscal stimulus plans implemented in the past two decades. To say that Germany should copy the fiscal strategy of France, a country that has been in stagnation for three decades defies any economic logic. There is no evidence that Germany is spending or investing ñless than what it needs, rather the opposite.

The problem of the eurozone is not lack of government spending or taxes, but the excess in both.

The string of spending increases announced daily in Europe disguise an extremely dangerous bet: that the ECB will bail out the eurozone forever, especially because the diminishing effects of monetary and fiscal policy are evident.

Tax cuts will not work either if those are not matched with efficiency improvements and red tape cuts precisely to ensure that public services continue to exist within thirty years.

Burdening the private sector with more taxes and increasing an already bloated government spending may lead the eurozone to the Argentine paradox. By ignoring the sources of wealth generation as well as job creation and expelling them with confiscatory and extractive policies all that is achieved is unemployment and stagnation.

The eurozone cannot expect to achieve the growth it has not delivered repeating the same mistakes, further weakening an economy that needs to bet on attracting investment, reinforcing growth and improving technology and the competitiveness of companies.

When politicians charge an economy with large and growing fixed costs, without prioritizing investment attractiveness, productivity and economic freedom, they jeopardize the welfare they pretend to defend.

The problem of productivity, growth, and employment is not solved by putting obstacles to investment and increasing extractive measures.

Growth and the welfare state are not strengthened by putting up political spending and debt as pillars of an economy.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iraq/USA

Iraq urges the UN to kick out the USA

(zerohedge)

Iraq Urges UN To Kick “Unauthorized” US Forces From Country

The Iraqi government’s efforts to expel what it increasingly considers an ‘unauthorized’ American occupation have just escalated dramatically, as Baghdad is now urging the United Nations to expel US troops from sovereign Iraqi territory.

As we noted previously, Baghdad officials rejected a Pentagon plan to relocate some 1,000 US troops now exiting Syria to US bases in western Iraq, saying the additional troops had “no approval to stay”.

On Wednesday Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi announced he’s taking “all international legal measures” over the entry of U.S. troops from neighboring Syria, again underscoring the Pentagon had no authorization for such a move, and that the troops are “not allowed” to remain in the country, but only “transition” on their way to other US bases in Kuwait and Qatar.

 

US exiting Syria, via Getty/Al Jazeera

“We have (already) issued an official statement saying that and are taking all international legal measures. We ask the international community and the United Nations to perform their roles in this matter,” Abdul Mahdi’ said.

He said that any American forces coming from Syria have four weeks to leave Iraq, as reported by the AP.

The firm ‘red line’ assertion came immediately after the prime minister met with US Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who arrived earlier in the day on an unannounced visit, apparently to negotiate a compromise. Without Iraq’s cooperation, the White House’s Syria exit strategy and its logistics are in question.

On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Mark Esper in a likely attempt to placate growing Iraqi anger, said, “The aim isn’t to stay in Iraq interminably. The aim is to pull our soldiers out and eventually get them back home.”

Currently there are more than 5,000 American forces stationed in the country as part of a prior controversial agreement with Baghdad. One senior Pentagon official noted to Reuters this week that the situation remains “fluid and plans could change”.

There’s growing popular anger at the continued US presence largely due to a spate of Israeli drone strikes over the past few months on Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary bases, mostly in and around Baghdad.

Washington’s priorities in the country have generally been expressed by defense officials as countering the threat of any resurgent ISIS , and preventing Iranian entrenchment and expansion in the region.

end
Syria
Car bombs rock Northern Syria in heavily populated areas and this is no doubt the work of iSIS. As we reported to you when the USA eft, Isis escaped the prisons and this is the result of that
(zerohedge)

Car Bombs Rock Northern Syria After “Hundreds” Of ISIS Prisoners Escape

On Thursday a car bomb detonated in the town of Tal Abyad, wounding several Turkish-backed Syrian fighters outside their militia headquarters, following at least three other similar blasts this week, which targeted various groups fighting in northeast Syria.

The AP reports “There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombing” and confirmed that “Similar bombings have taken place in the past in another enclave held for several years by Turkey and its Syrian allies on the northwest part of the border.” Multiple civilian casualties have been reported in each case.

This sudden spate of mystery bomb attacks in heavily trafficked civilian areas suggests a resurgent ISIS could already be at work, after this month’s Turkish invasion of Syrian Kurdish areas has resulted in mass ISIS prison breaks in the region.

 

Fires rage in the northern Syrian town of Qamishli city following Turkey’s military incursion, via The Independent. 

On Wednesday President Trump’s Special Representative for Syria Engagement, James Jeffrey, revealed in Congressional testimony that over 100 Islamic State terrorists previously held in Kurdish prisons are now on the loose.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper also confirmed the number in a CNN interview, but tried to downplay it as less than expected.

Christiane Amanpour

@camanpour

Exclusive: U.S. Defense Secretary @EsperDoD says that “of the 11,000 or so detainees that were in prisons in northeast Syria, we’ve only had reports of a little bit more than a hundred that have escaped… So right now we have not seen this big prison break that we all expected.”

Embedded video

Russian figures, meanwhile, have been much higher, with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu saying on Tuesday that “Moscow estimated that up to 500 people, including Islamist fighters, had escaped from captivity in northern Syria after their guards left their posts.”

Russia’s defense ministry has said measures were being taken for Russian and Syrian forces to capture ISIS prisoners which are on the loose, which could require additional Russian troops reinforcements, according to the statement.

Charles Lister

@Charles_Lister

3 large bomb attacks took place in NE this AM:

1. Motorbike-borne IED outside al-Shadadi’s central Mosque

2. Car bomb in Suluk, targeting fighters (-controlled)

3. Car bomb in , in -regime zone

Civilian casualties recorded in all 3 attacks.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

 

 

Given the latest bombings seem to have targeted various players — all rivals and/or enemies of ISIS — including pro-Assad forces, the SDF, and some among the Turkish backed ‘rebel’ groups, it’s likely that ‘underground’ ISIS cells and recent escapees are attempting to take advantage of the chaos.

Multiple reports have detailed large-scale ISIS and Islamist prison breaks since the start of Turkey’s ‘Operation Peace Spring’ on Oct. 9.

Estimates put the total number of detained ISIS members in northeast Syria still under Kurdish supervision at 10,000.

6.Global Issues

this is a good one!!  Two millennial junior bankers ran a global insider trading scam stretching from Manhattan to Monaco.

The two lovers cannot be found but already a VP at Goldman Sachs has been arrested plus one other individual

quite a story..

(zerohedge)

Millennial “Oceans 11” Crew Busted In Global Insider-Trading Scam Stretching From Manhattan To Monaco

Two junior investment bankers, one from Moelis & Company and another from Centerview Partners LLC., fell in love with one another, then decided to operate an international insider-trading scheme using nonpublic information from each other’s firms to sell to securities traders around the world, reaped millions of dollars, are currently on the run as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a civil complaint against the pair, reported The Wall Street Journal.

Darina Windsor (Centerview) and Benjamin Taylor (Moelis & Company), two former junior-level bankers, were not just young millennial lovers, they also operated a yearslong global insider trading ring.

They stole confidential documents detailing upcoming corporate transactions for mainly US-listed companies that were then sold off to traders in various countries. The scheme yielded the pair millions of dollars, SEC prosecutors said.

Court documents filed by the SEC Tuesday said Windsor, 32, and Taylor, 35, were among six people charged in separate indictments.

SEC prosecutors allege the couple stole nonpublic corporate documents from eaches respected firm and shared it with traders across Europe.

Windsor worked at Centerview until 2016, and Taylor was an employee at Moelis from 2012-2014. It’s believed the couple is still on the run.

“The insider trading charges announced today lay bare a long-running international scheme stretching over the course of years, whose participants earned tens of millions of dollars in illicit profits from illegally trading on stolen inside information,” said Audrey Strauss, the deputy U.S. attorney in Manhattan.

Court documents allege the couple sold inside information on 22 companies from 2H12 through 1Q18. Some of the nonpublic information were upcoming deals on Merk, Amgen, and Celgene. The data was then passed onto intermediaries, who then supplied it to a network of traders in Switzerland and London. SEC prosecutors said these traders made tens of millions of dollars in illicit gains.

Taylor used several burner phones and cryptic smartphone apps to communicate with intermediaries.

“Once upon a time, there was a Pops searching for Truffles in the Forest,” the subject line of an email Windsor wrote to Taylor that had inside information about Amgen buying out Onyx Pharmaceuticals for $8.5 billion in 2013 — the data was then passed onto middlemen who supplied it to traders in Europe.

The SEC alleges the couple made millions of dollars from selling nonpublic information to various traders.

In a separate indictment, Joseph El-Khouri, a London-based trader, was charged by the SEC for paying an intermediary for inside information, who was part of Windsor and Taylor’s scheme.

El-Khouri was arrested in London on Monday and will likely be extradited to the US in the near term.

And to come full circle with our earlier report last weekend, detailing how Bryan Cohen, a vice president at Goldman Sachs, was arrested last Friday by the Feds for leaking nonpublic information. It appears Cohen has now been linked to the international insider-trading ring.

end

Finland //Nokia

Nokia crashes!!

(zerohedge)

Most Millennial Traders Weren’t Even Born When Nokia Crashed This Hard

Nokia shares plunged 25% on Thursday after management warned its 2019/2020 profits would be disastrous after a delay in earnings from 5G networks, reported Bloomberg. As a result of the abrupt revision in outlook, the Finnish telecom network equipment maker cut its 2020 forecast and suspended a dividend to investors.

Nokia

@nokia

Find our Financial Report for Q3 and January-September 2019 here: https://nokia.ly/2WaGp2T

Our Q3 2019 Earnings Conference Call will take place today 24 October 2019 at 3 PM EET. https://nokia.ly/2WcjxzZ

View image on Twitter

Nokia says 2019 EPS is around 0.18 to 0.24 euros for 2019 and will be around 0.20 to 0.30 euros in 2020. Earlier this year, the telecom maker was expecting EPS to be about 0.25 to 0.29 euros for 2019, and 2020 EPS of 0.37 to 0.42 euros, a dramatic revision lower, which is what spooked investors to panic sell the stock into one of the worst declines in the company’s history in nearly three decades. The last time Nokia puked this hard, most millennial traders weren’t even born.

Justin McQueen@JMcQueenFX

Nokia shares down 23% this morning on weak earnings report, largest intra-day drop since 1991

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Nokia doesn’t expect an earnings recovery until 2021, due to the loss of 5G market share by rivals that are outperforming it this year.

  • NOKIA OYJ NOKIA.HE – SOLID Q3 AND EXPECTED STRONG Q4; LOWERING FULL YEAR 2019 AND FULL YEAR 2020 OUTLOOK DUE TO MARGIN PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT NEEDS
  • NOKIA OYJ NOKIA.HE – WE ARE ADJUSTING OUR TARGETS FOR FULL-YEAR 2019 AND 2020; AND WE EXPECT OUR RECOVERY TO DRIVE IMPROVEMENT IN OUR 2021 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO 2020.
  • NOKIA OYJ NOKIA.HE – SOME OF RISKS THAT WE FLAGGED PREVIOUSLY RELATED TO INITIAL PHASE OF 5G ARE NOW MATERIALIZING

The abrupt change in the forecast comes as macroeconomic headwinds are continuing to pressure telecoms and technology companies across Europe. The news of Nokia lower its outlook also sent Swedish rival Ericsson AB down by more than 4%.

Bloomberg notes one of the significant contributors to the revision of the outlook is due to Nokia “no longer expects to win a bigger piece of the 5G market by outperforming rivals this year and over the long term — the new outlook has the company performing in line through 2020.”

“Some of the risks that we flagged previously related to the initial phase of 5G are now materializing,” CEO Rajeev Suri said in a statement, pointing to price competition and the steep cost of products. Nokia will now spend more on developing 5G products and making them less expensive, he said. “We expect that we will be able to progressively mitigate these issues over the course of next year.”

The depressing outlook for Nokia wasn’t unexpected, but it was the extent of the downgrade and the delay of an earnings turnaround that cause the stock to plummet.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1124 DOWN .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.63 DOWN 0.040 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2898   DOWN   0.0022  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3080 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1124 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 0.70 POINTS OR .02% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 231.22 POINTS OR 0.87%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 231.22 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.70 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 27% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 125.22  POINTS OR 0.55%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1490.85

silver:$17.54-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.76% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.24 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.50 UP 1 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.18% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.14%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.24%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.93 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 67 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.31% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.11098  DOWN     .0033 or 33 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.58 DOWN .094 OR YEN UP 10  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2823 down .0098 POUND DOWN 98  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 21 basis points to 1.3080

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0693    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0734  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7701 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.14%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.74 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.23 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.76 UP 27  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 67.51 OR  UP  0.93E%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 73.91 POINTS OR .58%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 30.89 POINTS 0.55%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 6.80 POINTS or 0.07%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 176.35 POINTS OR 0.79%

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.31 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.47 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    64.10  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.17 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.40 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  5620//

 

 

BRENT :  61.58

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.77…plus one basis pt…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.27….plus one basis pt.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1104 ( DOWN 28   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.65 UP .012 (YEN DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.66 UP 18 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2847 DOWN 73  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7680

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.07   DOWN 0.14 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3071 UP 4 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0643  (ONSHORE)

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0706 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.40%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 27.20 POINTS OR 0.10%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 66.07 POINTS OR 0.81%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.51 CLOSED DOWN .52

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1%//libor dropping like a stone

1.939

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks & Bonds Shrug, Gold & Dollar Jump Amid Worst Macro Malaise In Over 2 Years

While stocks and bonds ended modestly higher on the day, it was gold (and oil) and the dollar that were notably higher (unusually together)…

Source: Bloomberg

And the stock and bond markets shrugged off the biggest Fed liquidity injection yet…

Makes you wonder what’s really going on under the surface…

 

Chinese stocks ended higher overnight after two liftathons…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets broadly rallied on the day but UK’s FTSE slipped lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq outperformed on the day while the S&P, Dow, and Small Caps scraped along around unch…

 

3,000 was once again defended in the S&P 500…

 

Notably The Dow dived at the US open and erased the Fed liquidity pump rally at last night’s close, before bouncing back…

 

Twitter was twatted…erasing almost the entire year’s gains

But Tesla soared (but was unable to hold above $300)…

Momo broke a 7 day losing streak and popped most since Oct 1st today…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were very volatile intraday today but for the second day in a row – ended pretty much unchanged across the entire curve…

Source: Bloomberg

One glimpse at the swings in 30Y Yields and you could be mistaken for thinking its a penny stock (three 4bps spikes intraday)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury vol is starting to catch down to equity vol…

Source: Bloomberg

Housing data has been disappointing as mortgage rates have risen recently but notably mortgage spreads to Treasuries has blown out to its widest since 2015…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, whether this is enough to compensate for a plethora of concerns, such as higher prepayment speeds in the more recent loans, a Federal Reserve that’s no longer actively purchasing mortgage-backed securities and increased rate volatility, remains to be seen.

The Dollar bounced off unchanged for the week to Friday’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

EUR was chaotic but ended lower amid Draghi’s last stand…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable slid from early in the US day as election chatter loomed, bounced on Johnson’s call (off the key 1.28 level), then slipped on Corbyn’s rejection…

Source: Bloomberg

Crytpos managed modest gains after yesterday’s bloodbathery…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin flatlined at multi-month lows today…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite dollar strength, commodities were broadly higher on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI extended its recent gains, pushing above $56.50 (and above the pre-Saudi-attack levels)…

Silver surged back above what appears to be key resistance…

 

And gold futures bounced back above $1500…

Gold also gained against the yuan…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, while stocks are holding up near record highs, we note that October is currently the weakest (most disappointing) month for US macroeconomic data since April 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

So did we escape the 1987-analog? Will 2013 pave the way to new highs?

Source: Bloomberg

end

MARKET TRADING THIS MORNING:

Watch Live: Pence Slams China’s “Curtailing Liberty, Human Rights”; Jabs At Nike, NBA

Update: The headlines from VP Pence’s Thursday morning speech are rolling in. As expected, the aggressive tone toward China mirrors a speech he gave a little more than one year ago.

He also slammed the NBA for acting like a “wholly owned subsidiary” of the Communist Party.

  • PENCE: NBA ACTING LIKE `WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARY’ OF CHINA
  • PENCE: NIKE CHECKING SOCIAL CONSIENCE AT DOOR ON HONG KONG
  • PENCE: CHINA’S ACTIONS IN HONG KONG CURTAIL LIBERTY, RIGHTS
  • PENCE: NBA ACTING LIKE `WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARY’ OF CHINA

* * *

Watch Mike Pence’s speech below:

Last Friday stocks took a sharp turn lower following news that VP Mike Pence was set to deliver his long-awaited, twice-delayed China speech today at 11am, at the Wilson Center in Washington, about a year after he harshly criticized Beijing in an address at the Hudson Institute think tank. That speech was widely viewed as the most critical remarks by such a high-ranking U.S. official in recent memory. The address is expected to “reflect on the U.S.-China relationship over the past year and look at the future of our relationship.”

While the tone and sentiment of Pence’s speech are unknown, what is well known is that the vice president has traditionally been an outspoken hawk when it comes to China. As such, as Vital Knowledge pointed out, “If Pence’s speech this Thurs about China is anything like his one from Oct 2018, the markets will NOT be happy”

That may also explain why despite being higher in the pre-market, stocks swooned since opening for trade on Thursday.

Pence’s speech is coming just weeks after President Donald Trump gave a vague outline of the first phase of a deal with Beijing and suspended a threatened tariff hike, signaling a thaw in trade relations between the two countries. But that same week, Washington put Chinese video surveillance firm Hikvision and dozens of other Chinese entities on a blacklist to punish them for the treatment of Muslim minorities, ratcheting up pressure on Beijing over human rights issues.

As such, the risk is that despite the mixed signals, Reuters reported that “many China watchers see Pence’s role as playing “bad cop” on China, so that Trump can shift his tone as he sees fit to strike a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

So is Pence about double down on his unprecedented China criticism, or will the Veep turn a page after the latest trade war ceasefire? As Bloomberg pointed out a week ago, “if the U.S. purposely planned a speech by Pence calling out China before Trump and Xi meet in November, it won’t help to foster trust.”

If indeed Pence plans on renewing his criticism of Beijing, it won’t help sentiment between the two superpowers, which may be precisely Trump’s intention: consider that in recent days consensus appears to have shifted that US-China diplomatic conditions are improving. However, if the Fed agrees with this, the risk is that Powell will resume hiking just as Trump faces elections in one year’s time, risking another market crash at a critical – for Trump’s reelection – time.

As such, what better way out to extend the Fed’s easing for another 3-6 months than to have “bad cop” Pence slam China, forcing Powell to remain dovish for the foreseeable future, and keeping stocks gravitating new all time highs.

 

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Another 134 billion in liquidity provided as cash is nowhere to be seen.  They blame Brexit,  The real reason is the huge sucking from the USA government as their deficit of 1.2 trillion dollars is creating this massive shortage of dollars.  It is interesting that the NY Fed is hiding a lot of this repo data from us. (see Pam And Russ Martens)

(zerohedge)

Fed Injects $134BN In Liquidity, Term Repo Oversubscribed Amid Month-End Liquidity Panic

With stocks threatening to close in the red, late on Wednesday the Fed sparked a furious last hour rally…

… when in a a statement published at 1515ET, precisely when the S&P ramp started, the New York Fed confirmed it would dramatically increase both its overnight and term liquidity provisions beginning tomorrow through November 14th.

The Desk has released an update to the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo) operations for the current monthly period.  Consistent with the most recent FOMC directive, to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation…

As we noted yesterday, that was a massive 60% increase in the overnight repo liquidity availability (from $75 billion to $120 billion) and a 28% jump in the term repo provision (from $35 billion to $45 billion).

“It’s just more evidence the Fed will not back off as year-end gets closer,” said Wells Fargo’s rates strategist, Mike Schumacher. “The Fed wants to take out more insurance. You had repo pick up last week. That might not have gone over too well.”

And now we know that there was good reason for that, because according to the latest, just concluded Term Repo operation, a whopping $62.15BN in securities were submitted to the Fed’s 14-day operation, ($47.55BN in TSYs, $14.6BN in MBS), resulting in a 1.38x oversubscribed term operation, the second consecutive oversubscription following Tuesday’s Term Repo, when $52.2BN in securities were submitted into the Fed’s then-$35BN operation.

This was the highest uptake of the Fed’s term repo operation since Sept 26.

But wait there’s more, because while the upsized term-repo saw the biggest (oversubscribed) uptake in one month, demand for the Fed’s overnight repo also soared, with dealers submitting 89.2BN in securities for the newly upsized, $120BN operation.

This was the biggest overnight repo yet!

In total, between the $45BN term repo and the $89.2BN overnight repo, the Fed just injected a whopping $134.2BN in liquidity just to make sure the US banking system is stable. That, as the Fed’s balance sheet soared by $200BN in the past month rising to just shy of $4 trillion.

Meanwhile, funding tensions weren’t evident only in repo, but also in the Fed’s T-Bill POMO, where as we noted yesterday, demand for liquidity has also been increasing with every subsequent operation, peaking with yesterday’s operation.

Needless to say, if the funding shortage was getting better, none of this would be happening; instead it appears that with every passing day the liquidity shortage is getting worse, even as the Fed’s balance sheet is surging.

The only possible explanation, is someone really needed to lock in cash for month end (the maturity of the op is on Nov 7) which is when a “No Deal” Brexit may go live, and as a result one or more banks are bracing for the worst. The question, as before,  remains why: just what is the source of this unprecedented spike in liquidity needs in a system which already has $1.5 trillion in excess reserves? And while we await the answer, expect stocks to close pleasantly in the green as dealers transform their newly granted liquidity into bets on risk assets.

 end
Another good indicator of poor growth in the USA: tumbling durable goods orders
(zerohedge)

Durable Goods Orders Tumble In September, Business Investment Contracts Most Since Trump Elected

After a solid rebound in June and July, analysts expected September to extend August’s slowdown but things were considerably worse than expected as headline durable goods orders fell 1.1% MoM (-0.7% exp) leaving orders down 4.0% year-over-year.

 

Source: Bloomberg

Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft – a measure used in GDP calculations – fell 0.7%, more than forecast, after no change the prior month. The report showed the three-month annualized gain for business-equipment shipments declined…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, the proxy for business investment – bookings for non-military capital goods orders excluding aircraft – fell 0.5% after a downwardly revised 0.6% drop the prior month… and down 1.8% YoY – the weakest since Trump’s election…

Source: Bloomberg

end

Housing is such a big part of uSA GDP..today new homes sales slow in Sept. plus prices are plunging to its lowest levels in two years

(zerohedge)

US New Home Sales Slow In September, Prices Plunge To Lowest Since 2017

With mortgage applications plunging (on just a modest rise in mortgage rates) and a disappointing tumble in existing home sales, new home sales were expected to slow in September (after a huge bounce in August) and they did (but less than expected thanks to a downward revision).

August’s 7.1% MoM spike was revised lower to a 6.2% rise which left September’s 701k new home sales SAAR down 0.7% MoM.

 

Source: Bloomberg

The YoY rise in new home sales slowed…

 

The supply of homes at the current sales rate held at 5.5 months, unchanged from the prior period.

The number of new homes for sale decreased for a fourth month, to 321,000.

Very notably, the median home price plunged 8.8% from a year earlier to $299,400 – to its lowest since Feb 2017…

 

Purchases of new homes declined in three of four U.S. regions, led by the West and Northeast. The Midwest rose.

Let’s just hope rates don’t inch higher any further…

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

As Bloomberg reports, cracks in manufacturing have been visible in other recent reports. One in six companies in the Philadelphia region plans to reduce capital spending next year because of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, a Federal Reserve survey shows.

end
Markit PMI rises in October but employment and new orders slump.  I would not put any credence to Markit numbers as they are always bullish.  Put more emphasis on the ISM mfg number
(zerohedge)

US PMIs Rebound In October But Employment, New Orders Slump

After September’s bounce, expectations for preliminary US PMIs in October are mixed (better for Services, worse for Manufacturing) as Eurozone PMIs stagnated at multi-year lows this morning.

In the US, the flash October data was better than expected…

  • US Manufacturing PMI 51.5 (51.1 prior, 50.9 exp)
  • US Services PMI 51.0 (50.9 prior, 51.0 exp)

This is the 2nd month in a row of rebound…

Source: Bloomberg

However, Employment tumbled to 47.5 vs 48.6 in September, the lowest reading since Dec. 2009 (and second consecutive month of contraction) and with US macro surprise data increasingly disappointing, we wonder how long this shallow bounce can be sustained.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“Despite business activity lifting from recent lows, the survey data point to annualized GDP growth of just under 1.5% at the start of the fourth quarter, and a near-stalling of new order growth to the lowest for a decade suggests that risks are tilted toward growth remaining below trend in coming months.

Additionally, Williamson notes…

“An increased rate of job culling adds to the gloomy picture, with jobs being lost among surveyed companies at a rate not seen since 2009. At current levels, the survey’s employment gauge indicates non-farm payroll growth slipping below 100,000.

“The overall subdued picture reflects a spreading of economic weakness from manufacturing to services, but encouragingly we are now seeing some signs of manufacturing pulling out of its downturn, in part driven by a return to growth for exports and improved sentiment about the year ahead, linked to hopes that trade war tensions are starting to ease.

“If manufacturing can continue to gain momentum this should hopefully feed through to stronger jobs growth and an improved service sector performance, leading to better GDP growth, but it remains too early to determine whether the economy has truly turned a corner.”

Is this rebound enough to stall The Fed’s dovish rate-cycle hopes?

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

What were FBI agents doing in Italy spying on Trump’s election people like Papadopoulos?  The Italian

connection is Mifsud, the genesis of the this entire sordid affair

(associated press )

special thanks to G for sending this to us:

Attorney general Bill Barr asked Italy’s spy chiefs what FBI agents were up to in the country before the 2016 election, Italy’s prime minister reveals

  • Giuseppe Conte said Barr was seeking information about the activities of FBI agents assigned to Italy in his meetings with Italian spy chiefs this summer
  • Barr and U.S. Attorney John Durham, who is examining what led the U.S. to open a counterintelligence investigation on the Trump campaign, flew there twice
  • Conte has come under fire for letting Barr and Durham speak to Italian spy chiefs
  • Disclosure that it was to seek information on federal officers who already work for the U.S. government likely to raise eyebrows in D.C. 
  • Comes after report by Fox News which claimed that Durham found evidence in Rome which makes him want to ‘zero in’ on James Clapper and John Brennan
  • Trump is said to be ‘obsessed’ with vengeance on Brennan, the former CIA boss, who has questioned the president’s mental and moral fitness for office

By ASSOCIATED PRESS and MEGAN SHEETS FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

PUBLISHED: 16:48 BST, 23 October 2019 | UPDATED: 00:45 BST, 24 October 2019

 

Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte said Wednesday U.S. Attorney General William Barr was seeking information about the activities of FBI agents assigned to Italy in his meetings with Italian intelligence officials this summer.

Conte insisted on the complete legitimacy of both the meetings and his own role, during a press conference after testifying behind closed doors to the parliamentary intelligence committee in Rome.

The two meetings, in August and in September, related to a U.S. investigation into the origin of a probe into Russian election interference in the 2016 election won by President Trump.

Italian media reports have accused Conte of violating protocols in permitting the meetings.

Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte sits before testifying behind closed doors to COPASIR (Italian parliamentary intelligence committee) about a meeting between United States Attorney General William Barr and Italian intelligence, in Rome, Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2019. Media reports have indicated that Conte authorized the contacts -- one in August and one in September -- in violation of protocol. (Angelo Carconi/ANSA via AP)

 

Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte sits before testifying behind closed doors to COPASIR (Italian parliamentary intelligence committee) about a meeting between United States Attorney General William Barr and Italian intelligence, in Rome, Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2019. Media reports have indicated that Conte authorized the contacts — one in August and one in September — in violation of protocol. (Angelo Carconi/ANSA via AP)

Probe: Bill Barr, the attorney general, flew to Rome twice to meet spy chiefs there - to ask what the U.S. government's own agents were up to

+

Probe: John Durham, the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut, flew to Rome twice to meet spy chiefs there - to ask what the U.S. government's own agents were up to

Probe: Bill Barr, the attorney general (left) , and John Durham, the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut (right) , flew to Rome twice to meet spy chiefs there – to ask what the U.S. government’s own agents were up to

Conte said Barr’s request arrived via normal diplomatic channels for ‘a preliminary exchange of information with our intelligence aimed at verifying activities of American agents. This must be clear.’

ADVERTISING

Conte argued that Italian law gives the country’s premier sole responsibility for responding to intelligence requests, and that he could not seek, for example, preliminary clearance from the parliamentary intelligence committee or legally discuss the request with any minister or political leader.

Conte also emphasized that the Americans showed no interest in the activities of Italian intelligence, and that the Italian intelligence services were ‘completely extraneous to these events.’

Conte said that Barr first held a ‘preliminary technical’ meeting with intelligence officials in offices at Rome’s Piazza Dante on Aug. 15. That was followed up with another meeting in the same offices on Sept. 27.

‘I hate to disappoint you but there were no meetings in bars or hotels,’ Conte said, referring to media speculation. ‘They were all held in institutional settings.’

Referring to domestic criticism that the meetings came at a moment when the previous Conte-led government was in crisis, Conte emphasized that the American request for the meetings was made in June – before Interior Minister Matteo Salvini sought to push Conte out of power – and that the request arrived by normal diplomatic channels.

end

what a riot:  Trump cancels subscriptions to the New York Times and Washington Post which will save thousands of taxpayer dollars

Just cannot wait to see the reaction from these guys

(zerohedge)

Trump Cancels All Admins’ NYT, WaPo Subs: “Will Save 100s Of 1000s Of Taxpayer Dollars”

In what we are sure will be “hair-on-fire” screamed about as ‘tyrannical-book-burning’, President Trump has reportedly planning to instruct federal agencies to not renew their subscriptions to the New York Times and the Washington Post.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said in an email Thursday:

“Not renewing subscriptions across all federal agencies will be a significant cost saving – hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars will be saved.”

The decision comes days after the president cancelled the White House’s print subscriptions to the Post and the Times after expressing frustration with their coverage.

“We don’t even want it in the White House anymore,” Mr. Trump said of the Times during an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity that aired Monday night.

“We’re going to probably terminate that and the Washington Post. They’re fake.”

Additionally, The Journal reports that a White House official confirmed that print editions of the Times and the Post weren’t among the newspapers delivered to the White House on Thursday.

And while liberals use “fact checkers” to force advertisers to boycott “right wing” websites/newspapers, President Trump’s response is even cleaner: “your subscription has been terminated.”

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Deep State Vows PAYBACK After Trump Disrupts Millions in Illegal Drug Trafficking Cash & Kickbacks from Syria – This isn’t about the Kurds, it’s about the cash,” one FBI source said… For years, it is allegeddeep state players have been raking in millions in illicit profits through the manufacturing and distribution of narcotics in Syria The network, the money and the amount of illegal narcotics coming out of Syria are massive. Syria is supplying the entire Middle East with a very potent pill form of meth called captagon…

The FBI and DEA have shared frustrations about fighting factions in the State Department to clamp down on millions of pills being manufactured in Syrian labs. Efforts to track and stop the worldwide distribution have resulted in a tug of war inside D.C…

https://truepundit.com/deep-state-vows-payback-after-trump-disrupts-millions-in-illegal-drug-trafficking-cash-kickbacks-from-syria/

 

@realDonaldTrump: It would be really great if the people within the Trump Administration, all well-meaning and good (I hope!), could stop hiring Never Trumpers, who are worse than the Do Nothing Democrats. Nothing good will ever come from them!

     Never Trumper Republican John Bellinger, represents Never Trumper Diplomat Bill Taylor (who I don’t know), in testimony before Congress! Do Nothing Democrats allow Republicans Zero Representation, Zero due process, and Zero Transparency….

 

Career [AKA Deep State] State Department officials have defied WH orders to not participate in the Schiff’s Star Chamber hearings.  They are upset that Trump is pursuing foreign policy that is contrary to their desires or the policies of the former presidents that initially hired them.

 

Stephen Miller pushback: ‘Permanent bureaucracy a mortal threat to America’

Anonymous efforts by anti-Trump federal bureaucrats to thwart the White House agenda through leaks and complaints to friendly reporters and congressional allies are a “mortal threat” to democracy and the 2016 election results, according to a top administration official…

     “It is best understood as career federal employees that believe they are under no obligation to honor, respect, or abide by the results of a democratic election. Their view is, ‘If I agree with what voters choose, then I’ll do what they choose. If I disagree with what voters choose, then I won’t, and I’ll continue doing my own thing. So basically it’s heads I win, tails you lose…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/stephen-miller-pushback-permanent-bureaucracy-a-mortal-threat-to-america

About 30 GOP Reps disrupted Schiff’s Star Chamber hearing on Wednesday.  This induced Schiff to halt the closed-door testimony.  Sen. Lindsey Graham slammed the GOP Reps.

 

Lindsey Graham calls out GOP for storming closed-door hearing: “That’s nuts” http://hill.cm/POBdZ2D

 

Graham critics, already incensed with him for his lack of Senate oversight, went postal on him.

 

@seanmdav: Lindsay Graham’s only interested in investigating the inside of cable TV green rooms, so it’s not surprising that he’s shocked and appalled at the spectacle of lawmakers doing actual oversight.

 

Graham, realizing that he had screwed up again, offered a non-apology apology.

 

@LindseyGrahamSC: CORRECTION: I was initially told House GOP took the SCIF by force – basically like a GOP version of Occupy Wall Street.  Apparently it was a peaceful protest.  Big difference.  I understand their frustration and they have good reason to be upset.

Republican lawmaker John Ratcliffe ‘destroyed’ key parts of impeachment testimony given by US envoy to Ukraine in just 90 seconds, claims House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy

    Taylor, the top diplomat in the Ukraine, testified that he was toldBy whom?]that US military aid to the country was contingent on Kiev putting out a statement they were investigating the Bidens and the 2016 election…“And one thing that you find out in this process is all this information is just like that whistleblower, everything is second, third, and fourth-hand information.”…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7604241/Republican-John-Ratcliffe-destroyed-impeachment-testimony-envoy-Ukraine-90-seconds.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

@RepRatcliffe: Unlike reporters writing headlines based on Taylor’s opening statement, I was in the room for his testimony yesterday. He provided no evidence that the Ukrainians were aware that military aid was being withheld during the July 25 call. That makes Quid Pro Quo legally impossible.

Who is William Taylor? Impeachment Star Witness Has Long Relationship with Burisma-Backed Think Tank – even writing Ukraine policy pieceswith the organization’s director and analysis articles published by the Council…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/23/who-william-taylor-impeachment-star-witness-longtime-relationship-burisma-backed-think-tank/

 

The State Department’s been fighting presidents since long before Trump

So far, all the testimony actually proves is these State Department diplomats think they, not Trump, ought to be running foreign policy. Never mind impeachment. The most pressing constitutional issue is who decides the nation’s foreign policy, the president or the permanent bureaucracy

    William Taylor, the acting ambassador to Ukraine who testified Tuesday, burned with indignation that Trump went “outside regular State Department channels.”

    William Burns, who capped his career as deputy secretary of State under President Barack Obama, argues that State Department careerists should be in charge, not the president and his appointees

https://nypost.com/2019/10/22/the-state-departments-been-fighting-presidents-since-long-before-trump/

 

On Tuesday, DJT tweeted: All Republicans must remember what they are witnessing here [impeachment inquiry] – a lynching.  The MSM, Dems, NeverTrumpers and RINOs went nuts – until people posted Dem comments from Clinton’s impeachment.

 

@RoscoeBDavis1: During the Clinton impeachment in 1998:

Dem. Joe Biden called it a lynching.

Dem. Jerry Nadler called it a lynch mob.

Dem. Jim McDermott called it a lynch mob.

Dem. Gregory Meeks called it a lynching.

Dem. Danny Davis called it a lynching.

Dem John Kerry called it a political lynching

Biden apologizes for calling 1998 impeachment a ‘lynching’

This wasn’t the right word to use and I’m sorry about that. Trump on the other hand chose his words deliberately today in his use of the word lynching and continues to stoke racial divides in this country daily…  https://www.oann.com/biden-apologizes-for-calling-1998-impeachment-a-lynching/

Paul Sperry @paulsperry_: Sens. Grassley & Johnson have fired off a letter to FBI Director Wray demanding he turn over notes from Aug 2016 counterintelligence defensive briefings to Hillary Clinton & Trump b/c they suspect the FBI gave 2 different briefings –one to Hillary, and another to Trump

 

ABC News @ABC: Just 11 days after winning the Nobel Peace Prize, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says his country was “readied” if there was a need to go to war with Egypt.

end

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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