OCT 25//GOLD UP $1.40 TO $1503.15//SILVER ADVANCES 16 CENTS TO $17.94//HUGE QUEUE JUMPING FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AT THE COMEX//JPMORGAN ADDS CONTINUE SILVER TO ITS INVENTORY FOR THE 9TH DAY/10 DAYS////HONG KONG ON BRINK OF COLLAPSE AS RETAIL SALES PLUMMET BY 50%//BEIJING PUMMELS PENCE AND YET THE USA IS HOPEFUL OF A TRADE DEAL?//LEBANON HAS ITS BANKS SHUT FOR 7 STRAIGHT DAYS AND EXPECT A RUN ON THE BANK ONCE THEY OPEN//BARR–DURHAM PROBE IS NOW A CRIMINAL MATTER// FIRES OUT OF CONTROL IN LA//OFFICIAL DEFICIT OF USA COMES IN AT 984 BILLION DOLLARS//

GOLD:$1503.15 UP $1.40(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.94 UP 16 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold : $1504.50

 

silver:  $18.04

we are now entering options expiry week
comex options on gold/silver expire on:  Monday Oct 28
LBMA options expire on Thursday Oct 31 as does the OTC options.
Gold and silver will be subdued in price for the entire week

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/20

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,498.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/24/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/28/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
690 C ABN AMRO 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 19 5
800 C MAREX SPEC 1
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 20 20
MONTH TO DATE: 11,957

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 20 NOTICE(S) FOR 2000 OZ (0.0622 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  11,957 NOTICES FOR 1,195,700 OZ  (37.191 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR OCT

 

 

19 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 95,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1444 for 7,220,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7587 UP 177 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8616 up 1202

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 3717 CONTRACTS FROM 214,781 UP TO 218,498 WITH THE 22 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  3326 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3326 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3326 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3326 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.63 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 22 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.270     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

YESTERDAY,WE HAD NO ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS SILVER WAS QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE BOX ……..  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE ( IT ROSE 22 CENTS HIGHER). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A WHOPPING 7150 CONTRACTS. OR 35.75 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

23,029 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 23,029 CONTRACTS) OR 115.15 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1212 CONTRACTS OR 6.06 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  115.15 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 16.45% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1754.89   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3717, WITH THE 22 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3326 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE AND CRIMINAL SIZED: 7150 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3326 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3717 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 22 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.79 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.093 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 156% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 18 NOTICE(S) FOR 90,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.270 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 15,097 CONTRACTS, TO 652,554 (AND CLOSE  AN ALL TIME COMEX RECORD BYPASSING THE PRECIOUS RECORD SET JULY 5/16 AT 652,971 CONTRACTS.) ACCOMPANYING THE  $8.75 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 12,383 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  12,383 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 652,554,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 27,480 CONTRACTS: 15,097 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 12,383 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 27,480 CONTRACTS OR 2,748,000 OZ OR 85.47 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $8.75 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 85.47  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE AS WELL AS BEING UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 130,068 CONTRACTS OR 13,006,800 oz OR 404.56 TONNES (19 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6845 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 404.56 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 404.56/3550 x 100% TONNES =11.39% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5091.59  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              174.900 MILLION OZ

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 15,097 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($8.75)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 12,383 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12,383 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 29,110 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

12,383 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 15,097 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 90.54 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.75 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  20 notice(s) filed upon for 2000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48  TONNES

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3717 CONTRACTS from 214,781 UP TO 218,498 AND CLOSER  TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  3326  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3326 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3717  CONTRACTS TO THE 3326 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 7043 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 35.22 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.270 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 22 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 3326 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.01 POINTS OR 0.48%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 130.56 POINTS OR 0.49%   /The Nikkei closed UP 49.21 POINTS OR XXX%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  .65%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0702 /Oil UP TO 56.11 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0702 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0700 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Soft bank’s huge gamble on unicorns may bring down sovereign Japan

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

i)HONG KONG
Hong Kong on the brink of collapse as foreign visitors will not come to the city because of the protests.  Hotel workers are being laid off.  Retail sales have plummeted by a huge 50%
(zerohedge)

ii)Hong Kong/Spain

Hong Kong protesters now show support for Catalan separatists who want their own indepednece

(zerohedge)

iii)China/USA

Beijing slams Pence as a slandering arrogant person.  This is no way to get a trade deal
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SYRIA/USA/

That did not take long!! The White House is now considering a complete reversal and may leave 500 troops and supply battle tanks. The obviously need Syrian oil to be in their hands.

(zerohedge)

ii)LEBANON

Looks like we are having a bank run over in Lebanon.  They have already closed their banks for 7 days. USA dollars are very scarce here

(zerohedge)

iii)TURKEY/RUSSIA/USA/NATO

Gatestone’s Coughlin argues that it is now time to exclude Turkey from Nato
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Pam and Russ martens are pounding the table on the non transparency and possible fraud committed by the fraud in this massive bailout of Wall Street,  This week a huge 690 billion dollars has gone to the banks and someone is in deep trouble.

(Pam and Russ Martens/GATA)

ii)global banks are now calling for more capital to protect against cascading losses in the world financial system

(Henry/Reuters/GATA)

iii)The Dutch Central bank revealed that it is possible for a big reset and that they use gold.  The problem is that gold is gone from the west and it sits with China..and with investors who purchase physical ahead of what will be a disaster

(Birch Gold)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)New York city housing bubble has just imploded.  The very big Tribeca home area witnesses a huge 28% plunge in house prices after  that huge  mansion tax bite

(zerohedge)

ii)CONSUMER SENTIMENT/USA

Consumer sentiment disappoints with the Democrats far more disappointed with their financial outlook than Republicans

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)It is about time.  Banks are now stuck with billions of leveraged loans they initiated and cannot sell.  Invesotrs are fleeing the credit markets

(zerohedge)

b)PG and E restores power but fires in the LA area are burning out of control

(zerohedge)

c)More fun and games in California as P G and E crashes to an all time low as investors believe that it will be blamed for the latest California inferno in L.A.

(zerohedge)

d)the official USA deficit comes in just under one trillion dollars at $984 as a big 84 billion surplus in September.

However you must add the huge deficit of student loans and auto loans to the official deficit.  The reason that these two are not included because there is a corresponding asset to this..they owe the money to Uncle Sam but it is never paid.
(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Huge story

Bill Barr and Durham probe is now a criminal investigation

two commentaries

Hoft and zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 15,097 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 652,554 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $8.75 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 12,383 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 12,383   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  12,383 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 27,480 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 12,383 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,097 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE (AS IT ROSE BY $8.75). AND WITHOUT A DOUBT, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  27,480 CONTRACTS OR 2,7480,000 OZ OR 85.47 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 279 contracts still standing for a GAIN of 71 contracts. Yesterday we had 18 notices served upon so we have another whopper of a gain of 89 contracts or an additional 8900 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers/official sector in their attempt to find physical metal on this side of the pond.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 112 contracts and thus the OI INCREASED to 1010.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 13,597 contracts UP to 492,608.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 20 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  2000 OZ. (0.0622 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3717 CONTRACTS FROM 214,781 UP TO 218,498 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 22 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 29 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 84CONTRACTS. WE HAD 106 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 22 CONTRACTS OR 110,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 41 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 419. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 2933 CONTRACTS UP TO 160,627.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 18 notice(s) filed for 90,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 353,752  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  316,601  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 25/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
643.02 oz
20 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
20 notice(s)
 2000 OZ
(0.0622 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
259 contracts
(25,900 oz)
0.8055 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
11,957 notices
1,195,700 OZ
37.191 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ Today  zero amount  arrived

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  643.02 oz  (20 kilobars)

total gold withdrawals; 643.02  oz

We had 0 adjustment

 

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 20 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,957) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (279 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (20 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,216,000 OZ OR 37.99 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (11,957 x 100 oz)  + (279)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (20 x 100 oz )which equals 1,212,700 oz standing OR 37.99 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 89 contracts OR 8900 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical on this side of the pond. There is no doubt that these guys need to put out fires springing up everywhere!!

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT…..   37.99 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 3 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.60155 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 70.595

TONNES- 2.60155 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 67.957 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.773 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,133.586 oz or  35.773 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,188,347.946 oz 254.69 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 25 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 413,444.990 oz
Brinks
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
379,002.440 oz
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
18
CONTRACT(S)
(90,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
11 contracts
 55,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1444 contracts

7,220,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   379,002.440 OZ  JPMorgan again resumes deposits after a one day holiday.  This is the 3rd day in a row for a deposit//Prior to that they had 6 straight deposits. In essence they have received as deposits on 9 out of the last 10 days.

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.11% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/314.96 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  379,002.440  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks:  412,394.590 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 1050.400 oz

 

total withdrawals; 413,444.990  oz

We had 0 adjustments:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.659 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.960 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 18 contract(s) FOR 90,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1444 x 5,000 oz = 7,220,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (29) and the number of notices served upon today 18 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1444 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (29)- number of notices served upon today (18) x 5000 oz equals 7,275,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE GAINED 21 contracts or an additional 105,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 18 notice(s) filed for 90,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  131,047 CONTRACTS

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 80,100 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 80,100 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 400 million  OZ 57.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.71% ((OCT 25/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.84% to NAV (OCT 24/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.71%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.18 TRADING 14.73///DISCOUNT 2.94

 

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 23/2016′ WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $0.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE : A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.45 TONNES//GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

 

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OCT 25/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 918.48 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 691 TRADING DAYS: 31.17 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 591 TRADING DAYS: A NET 135.97 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 25/2019: WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 24/2019: WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.963 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.797 MILLION OZ//

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION O

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

 

OCT 25/2019:

:

 

Inventory 377.834 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.90/ and libor 6 month duration 1.93

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.85%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.11

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Pam and Russ martens are pounding the table on the non transparency and possible fraud committed by the fraud in this massive bailout of Wall Street,  This week a huge 690 billion dollars has gone to the banks and someone is in deep trouble.

(Pam and Russ Martens/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Fed ups Wall Street bailout to $690 billion a week as media, Congress snooze

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, October 24, 2019

Yesterday the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that the giant money spigot it turned on for Wall Street on September 17 would be growing exponentially beginning today.

The New York Fed will now be lavishing up to $120 billion a day in cheap overnight loans to Wall Street securities trading firms, a daily increase of $45 billion from its previously announced $75 billion a day.

… 

In addition, it is increasing its 14-day term loans to Wall Street, a program which also came out of the blue in September, to $45 billion. Those term loans since September have been occurring twice a week, meaning another $90 billion a week will be offered, bringing the total weekly offering to an astounding $690 billion. If the same Wall Street firms are getting these loans continuously rolled over, they are effectively permanent loans.

That’s exactly what happened during the 2007-2010 Wall Street collapse: some teetering Wall Street casinos received, individually, $2 trillion in cumulative loans that were rolled over for 2 1/2 — without the authorization or even awareness of Congress or the American people. One bank, Citigroup, received more than $2.5 trillion in Fed loans, much of them at an interest rate below 1 percent, at a time when it was insolvent and couldn’t have obtained loans in the open market at even high double-digit interest rates. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/10/fed-ups-its-wall-street-bailout-t…

Fed Ups Its Wall Street Bailout to $690 Billion a Week as Media Snoozes

Media Ignores Fed's Massive Repo Loans

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 24, 2019 ~

Yesterday the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) announced that the giant money spigot it turned on for Wall Street on September 17 would be growing exponentially beginning today.

The New York Fed will now be lavishing up to $120 billion a day in cheap overnight loans to Wall Street securities trading firms, a daily increase of $45 billion from its previously announced $75 billion a day. In addition, it is increasing its 14-day term loans to Wall Street, a program which also came out of the blue in September, to $45 billion. Those term loans since September have been occurring twice a week, meaning another $90 billion a week will be offered, bringing the total weekly offering to an astounding $690 billion. It should be noted that if the same Wall Street firms are getting these loans continuously rolled over, they are effectively permanent loans. (That’s exactly what happened during the 2007-2010 Wall Street collapse: some teetering Wall Street casinos received, individually, $2 trillion in cumulative loans that were rolled over for two and one-half years – without the authorization or even awareness of Congress or the American people. One bank, Citigroup, received over $2.5 trillion in Fed loans, much of them at an interest rate below 1 percent, at a time when it was insolvent and couldn’t have obtained loans in the open market at even high double-digit interest rates.)

This latest announcement from the Fed comes on the heels of an October 11 announcement that it is launching a program to buy up $60 billion a month in Treasury bills and that program will last into “at least” the second quarter of next year.

What the New York Fed is doing is unprecedented in U.S. history and yet you will find no mention of it on any front page of a newspaper today. This is just a partial list of what makes this action unprecedented or highly questionable:

No Wall Street crisis has been announced to the public to explain these massive loans and Treasury buybacks;

Not one hearing has been held by Congress on the matter;

Not one official elected by the American people has authorized these loans;

The loans are not being made to commercial banks (which could re-loan the money to stimulate the U.S. economy). The loans are going to the New York Fed’s primary dealers, which are stock and bond trading houses on Wall Street who count hedge funds among their largest borrowers; (See list below. There is only one bank among the 24 primary dealers.)

Many of the primary dealers are units of foreign banks whose share prices have been in freefall. The Fed is making these loans at approximately 2 percent interest – an interest rate these firms could not come anywhere close to obtaining in the open market;

These same foreign banks are counterparties to mega U.S. banks’ derivative trades – raising the suggestion that this is another bailout of Wall Street’s derivatives mess as occurred in 2008;

The Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 was supposed to rein in this exact type of abuse by the New York Fed and, in fact, it states that Congress must be informed as to which banks are receiving the money to be sure it’s not going, once again, to failing financial institutions as happened in the last crisis;

The Government Accountability Office (GAO), when it released its audit of the Fed’s bailout programs of 2007 to 2010 chastised the Fed for failing to document the reasons it was flinging trillions of dollars to Wall Street and foreign banks. Notwithstanding the GAO’s report, the New York Fed is back to its old tricks again;

The New York Fed is owned by its members banks in its region. Representatives of these banks sit on its Board of Directors. It is thus too conflicted to be in charge of this bailout money spigot which is ultimately backstopped by the U.S. taxpayer if the New York Fed fails;

The New York Fed is the regulator of the largest bank holding companies in the U.S. But its failure as a regulator is why these same banks needed to be massively bailed out in 2008 and, apparently, again now. This system lacks any semblance of checks and balances;

The parent organizations of five of its primary dealers have admitted to criminal felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice for frauds against the investing public. Bailing out felons and Wall Street firms with serial histories of wrongdoing perpetuates moral hazard and, thus, more wrongdoing and bailouts.

Just this morning the New York Fed pumped out $134.15 billion to Wall Street under its new loan programs. The $45 billion in 14-day loans was oversubscribed by $17.15 billion, meaning the demand for liquidity on Wall Street is growing, not subsiding. Congress and mainstream media failed to do their job in the leadup to the epic Wall Street crisis of 2008 and they are failing the American people again.

Federal Reserve's 24 Primary Dealers as of October 7, 2019 (Source -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Federal Reserve’s 24 Primary Dealers (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

end

global banks are now calling for more capital to protect against cascading losses in the world financial system

(Henry/Reuters/GATA)

Global banks, funds call for more capital from derivatives clearinghouses

 Section: 

By David Henry
Reuters
Thursday, October 24, 2019

NEW YORK — Four global banks and five big fund managers today called on international regulators to require for-profit derivatives clearinghouses to put up more of their own capital to protect against cascading losses that could rock the world financial system.

Members of the group, including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and BlackRock Inc., published their views to try to shift in their favor prolonged policy debates over how clearinghouses should be fortified.

..
Regulators put clearinghouses at the center of trading in over-the-counter credit derivatives and interest rate swaps after the 2008 financial crisis. But the regulators have yet to agree on detailed protocols for shoring up, or safely winding down, clearinghouses wounded by customer defaults.

The task is arguably the biggest unfinished post-crisis reform and has become important as large clearing houses have become, like banks, too big to fail. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-derivatives-regulation-clearinghouses…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

iii) Other physical stories:

The Dutch Central bank revealed that it is possible for a big reset and that they use gold.  The problem is that gold is gone from the west and it sits with China..and with investors who purchase physical ahead of what will be a disaster

(Birch Gold)

Central Bank Hints At A “Big Reset” And Reveals A Possible Solution

Via Birch Gold Group,

It’s not every day you hear a major financial institution hint at the possibility of the entire economic system collapsing.

The reason major financial institutions (and the mainstream financial media) shy away from a negative outlook on the economy is out of fear of triggering a kind of “self-fulfilling prophecy.” People stampeding to sell stocks and pull money out of banks could cause a vicious cycle of declines and losses.

And so these institutions tend to be positive, no matter what is really happening. But if a hungry bear is standing behind you in the woods, do you want to be “optimistic” and hope it isn’t there?

Maybe reality has finally started to sink in. Zero Hedge captured the stark state of the “system” by quoting an article from the Dutch Central Bank:

An article published by the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), or Dutch Central Bank, has shocked many with its claim that “if the system collapses, the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again. Gold bolsters confidence in the stability of the central bank’s balance sheet and creates a sense of security.”

After a part of the international banking system states the words “if the system collapses”, the obvious question to ask is:

Do they think the system will actually collapse?

Of course, it’s hard to tell exactly what will happen, and when.

That said, the DNB is moving about 31% of their gold to a military facility. They stated, “The Dutch central bank is moving part of the national gold reserves to a temporary home in Haarlem ahead of a permanent move to the new DNB Cash Centre at military premises in Zeist.”

That would be a good move in advance of a major financial crisis, if one did happen. And they aren’t the only central banking institution to move their gold in such an alarming fashion.

In 2017, Germany completed the process of repatriating its gold reserves from New York and Paris well ahead of schedule. But an article from The Street raises a red flag of concern for motive (emphasis ours):

After the financial crisis, you started seeing many European countries wanting their gold back. This whole thing started because they were more concerned about control over ownership.

Germany’s move only left 36.6% of their reserves in New York.

Inside the U.S., legislation passed in 2015 allowed Texas to repatriate its gold and create a bank in efforts to use gold and silver as legal tender.

The New American reported, “The law creating the first state-level gold-backed bank in the nation, House Bill 483, will involve repatriating about $1 billion of Texas gold from New York.”

This particular move by Texas lawmakers lays part of the groundwork necessary in case the “monetary reset” the Dutch Bank hinted at were to actually happen.

And with all of this gold flying around, and new kinds of banks being created, it begs one final and important question…

Will we get advance warning from the Federal Reserve?

If the system is heading for collapse (which the DNB is preparing for) or a monetary reset was going to be necessary, it would be nice to know in advance so you could prepare.

But that’s unlikely to be the case. Zero Hedge sarcastically observes, “We are confident that the trust-keepers of the current establishment – such as other central banks and the IMF – will be kind enough to provide ample advance notice to the citizens of the ‘developed’ world to exchange their fiat into hard assets. Or, then again, perhaps not.”

Without any notice, all you can do is stay informed and get prepared while you still have time.

One hint of things to come is buried in a 23-page speech from Mark Carney, which speaks of creating a “Synthetic Hegemonic Currency” (SHC) in efforts to end the U.S. dollar’s “destabilizing effects” as reserve currency. In that speech he said:

Widespread use of the SHC in international trade and finance would imply that the currencies that compose its basket could gradually be seen as reliable reserve assets, encouraging EMEs to diversify their holdings of safe assets away from the dollar.

So if this SHC gets widespread use, the already-weakening U.S. dollar may lose its seat on top of the reserve currency “food chain.”

Banks may return to a gold-backed monetary system in response.

end

A good one:

James Anderson discusses the silver manipulation with Chris Marcus:

(courtesy Anderson/Marcus)

Will The Department Of Justice Stop Silver Manipulation? – James Anderson

As the Department of Justice continues to investigate precious metals manipulation, it remains a true mystery as to where the case will ultimately lead.

It’s been almost a year since former JP Morgan trader John Edmonds plead guilty last November. And while there have been more confessions and charges since then, seemingly little has actually changed in the way gold and silver trade.

A few weeks ago at the last Fed meeting when a rate cut was not fully priced in, and the Fed did cut rates, the prices of both gold and silver got smashed. Since then there have also been flash crashes, spikes both up and down, and essentially exactly what the traders who just signed guilty confessions described repeatedly doing. While also stating it was widespread practice within their firms. And it continues to go on even as these traders are being arrested. Which makes me wonder how legitimate this investigation really is.

Are the investigators at the Department of Justice watching the silver price on a daily basis? Are they seeing any of the counterintuitive price moves? Are they aware of what so many in the silver community have pointed out, day after day, year after year?

Are they aware of just how much paper silver there is out there relative to the amount of physical? We really don’t know, and in the end, despite the investigation, so far nothing has changed.

Which James Anderson of the SD Bullion joined me to discuss on the show. As well as what type of silver he actually recommends to those who are looking to buy physical.

So click to watch the interview now!

Chris Marcus
October 25, 2019

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0702/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0700   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 14.01 POINTS OR 0.48%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 130.56 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 49.21 POINTS OR XX%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.66/Euro RISES TO 1.1109

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.14/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.57/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.11 and Brent: 61.55

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.39%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.92% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.25%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.32: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.31

3k Gold at $1516.00 silver at: 18.32   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 19/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.87

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.57 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9919 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1019 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.39%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.77% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.26%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7616..

 

Futures Tread Water After “Super Thursday’s” Amazon Collapse As Traders Look For New Clues

One day after “Super Thursday’s” barrage of central bank announcements and avalanche of corporate reports on the busiest day of Q3 earnings season, US equity futures…

… and world stocks edged higher in a muted session despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, downbeat economic data and mixed earnings which saw Amazon tumble the most in months on poor earnings and worse guidance. The dollar slipped as European and US bonds retreated, crude prices dropped and sterling hovered just above one week lows amid a new bout of Brexit anxiety, while Nasdaq futures held firm even as Amazon shares plunged on a surprise profit warning.

U.S. futures pointed to a slightly positive open on Wall Street following a mixed Thursday, which saw strong quarterly results from Microsoft and PayPal lift the Nasdaq 0.8% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1% after 3M slashed its full-year earnings outlook. But most attention will be on Amazon.com shares after the company on Thursday forecast revenue and profit for the holiday quarter below expectations on fierce competition and rising costs from its plan to speed up delivery times globally.

European stock markets trader lower with the regional Stoxx 600 slipping 0.3% and Germany’s DAX easing 0.1% while Britain’s FTSE .FTSE fell 0.4%, with food companies and tech stocks falling after after downbeat earnings in the U.S. including a huge miss by Amazon. Losses were led by the food and beverage sector which weighed after the world’s largest beer maker by Anheuser-Busch InBev tumbled 9% on disappointing quarterly profit and a glum outlook as the earnings season rumbled on.

Lackluster European data did little to quell underlying concerns over the health of the global economy. Germany’s Ifo business climate came in broadly unchanged while the mood among consumers in the block’s largest economy fell to its lowest in three years heading into November…

… as job losses in the auto and financial sector made shoppers more pessimistic about the outlook for Europe’s biggest economy. Still, the euro strengthened slightly after German business expectations improved in October from a decade low, a glimmer of hope for the economy following a series of weak data points.

“We may have reached the bottom in the euro zone, but there is still uncertainty that is troublesome in the U.S. Many accounts will be waiting for the Fed,” said Natixis fixed income strategist Cyril Regnat referring to next week’s meeting of the U.S. central bank with markets pricing a 90% chance of a rate cut.

The losses in Europe followed mixed performance in Asia where Japan’s Nikkei finished up 0.2% and Chinese blue-chips gained 0.6% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.28%. Most Asian markets edged higher, led by health care firms, as investors awaited more quarterly earnings to gauge the health of the global economy; Australia advanced and India retreating as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index headed for a third straight week of gains. The Topix added 0.3%, as Eisai surged for a third day on hopes that its Alzheimer’s drug will get approval, while Daiichi Sankyo also provided strong support. Japan’s recent equity rebound is dividing Wall Street views on where it will go next. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.5% higher after reversing earlier losses, with Kweichow Moutai and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine among the biggest boosts. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence criticized China’s actions against protesters in Hong Kong while calling for greater trade engagement. India’s Sensex dropped 0.3%, heading for a second day of declines, as Housing Development Finance and HDFC Bank weighed on the gauge.

And just to keep things interesting, trade talks are also back in focus with U.S. and Chinese trade officials due to discuss plans for China to buy more U.S. farm products while Beijing in return will request cancellation of some planned and existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. The two sides are working to try to agree on a text for a “Phase 1” trade agreement announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Oct. 11, in time for him to sign it with China’s President Xi Jinping next month at a summit in Chile. Though there are still large gaps to bridge. However, a speech by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday, which criticized China’s handling of the Hong Kong protests and its treatment of Muslim Uighurs in the Xinjiang region, did jangle nerves.

“Geopolitical concerns such as the global trade war are keeping investor optimism in check,” said Paula Polito, client strategy officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, adding the firm’s latest survey had found that investors had opted to raise their holdings of cash well above usual levels. A Reuters poll of economists showed that most think a steeper decline in global growth is more likely than a synchronised recovery, despite central bank easing.

Elsewhere, in his last meeting as president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi left ECB policy and guidance unchanged, but advised his successor to “never give up” on propping up the eurozone economy in the face of a worsening outlook.

In rates, Treasuries were marginally cheaper across the curve led by front-end and following wider losses across bunds after Germany’s Ifo business expectations gauge exceeded estimates. Gilts fell amid Brexit uncertainty and potential for a general election in December. Yields rose less than 1bp, with 10-year hovering near highest levels of the overnight session around 1.77% and little changed on the week. Bunds were cheaper vs. Treasuries by 1.5bp , gilts by 3.7bp; EU agreed to grant a Brexit extension but defers decision on the length, expects announcement on new deadline by Tuesday

In currency markets, the dollar traded flat against a basket of six major currencies while the euro steadied after falling to a one-week low against the U.S. dollar in the previous session on the ECB leaving the door open for more monetary policy easing, but keeping interest rates unchanged. The British pound edged down to $1.2820, extending a 0.5% drop on Thursday, as investors waited for a European Union decision on a Brexit extension after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for a December general election. Johnson conceded on Thursday for the first time that he would not meet his “do or die” deadline to leave the European Union next week. EU envoys will discuss the length of another delay to Brexit at a meeting on Friday. An EU official said the choice was between three months and a “two-tier” lag but warned that a decision might not come just yet. Swedish krona was steady as producer prices hold steady.

In commodities, oil prices fell on the day but were on track for strong weekly gains as support from a surprise draw in U.S. inventories and possible action from OPEC and its allies to trim production further outweighed broader economic concerns. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was down 0.4% to $55.99 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent crude dipped 0.3% to $61.45 per barrel.

Looking to the day ahead now, and earnings releases continue today with Verizon Communications, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Charter Communications and Barclays. In terms of data, there’ll be the Ifo business climate index from Germany, as well as GfK’s consumer confidence reading. From France, we’ll get September’s PPI, while in the US there’s the final University of Michigan sentiment reading for October. Finally from central banks, the ECB’s Villeroy will be speaking while the Russian central bank will be deciding on rates.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,004.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 396.25
  • MXAP up 0.04% to 161.10
  • MXAPJ down 0.03% to 516.59
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,799.81
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,648.44
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 26,667.39
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 2,954.93
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 38,843.03
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,739.22
  • Kospi up 0.1% to 2,087.89
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to -0.385%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1120
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.9 bps to 0.566%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 0.248%
  • Brent futures down 0.1% at $61.62/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,503.98
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.58

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.S. Vice President Mike Pence criticized China’s actions against protesters in Hong Kong while calling for greater engagement between the world’s two biggest economies, delivering a long-anticipated critique of Beijing’s human rights record as the two nations try to resolve their trade war
  • German business confidence stabilized in October and expectations unexpectedly improved from a decade low, suggesting that Europe’s largest economy may have stopped deteriorating at the start of the fourth quarter
  • China fired back at Vice President Mike Pence’s criticism on human rights, calling his speech “lies” and chiding him for ignoring U.S. problems like racism and wealth disparity
  • Boris Johnson’s efforts to break three years of gridlock in the U.K. Parliament with another election were thrown into doubt, after his main opponent demanded he rule out a no-deal Brexit first. Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn said Thursday that his decision on backing the prime minister’s bid for an election depends on the length of a Brexit extension granted by the European Union
  • Oil is set for the biggest weekly gain in more than a month as tightening crude supplies tempered further signs of a slowing global economy. A temporary halt to the North Sea Forties oil pipeline system added to a surprise decline in U.S. crude stockpiles last week
  • South Korea is abandoning its developing- nation privileges at the World Trade Organization following allegations by the Trump administration that some countries were taking advantage of the status
  • S&P Global Ratings is set to issue its first major statement on Italy’s finances since the country’s fledgling coalition government took power, in what could provide a further boon to its sovereign debt

Asian equities traded mixed with a lack of conviction amid the absence of any firm macro drivers and as earnings releases remained centre stage. ASX 200 (+0.7%) outperformed led by gold miners after the precious metal reclaimed the psychological USD 1500/oz level and with broad gains seen across sectors amid recent currency weakness, while Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was choppy and stalled after reaching its highest level in over a year with continued losses in SoftBank amid speculation of a USD 5bln write down to its Vision Fund. Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were subdued despite the PBoC’s liquidity efforts that resulted to a net injection of CNY 560bln this week, with weakness seen in financials and participants cautious as earnings season in the region began to pick up. There were also recent mixed comments from US Vice President Pence who suggested the US will continue to seek better relations with China and that if the sides can get an economic relationship right, they can make progress on other issues, although he noted the curtailing of rights and liberties in Hong Kong and criticized US businesses for kowtowing to Beijing. Finally, 10yr JGBs were choppy as they mirrored the indecisiveness in Japan and with demand subdued by a lack of BoJ buying in the market today.

Top Asian News

  • Asia’s Richest Man Gets Win as Rivals Face $7 Billion Bill
  • Piramal Plunges After Announcing $770 Million Capital Raising

Major European Bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%) are mostly lower amid a lack of fresh drivers, with most indices well within yesterday’s ranges. Dax and Euro Stoxx 50 (cash) both made fresh YTD highs this week; fears of a no deal Brexit have faded substantially and earnings, by and large, have not been as bad as feared. Sectors are mixed, with some divergence seen in the consumer sectors; Consumer Discretionary (+0.9%) outperforms after luxury apparel maker Kering’s (+9.9%) earnings topped expectations, while Consumer Staples (-1.0%) lags, with poor AB InBev () earnings weighing on beverage makers. In terms of other individual movers; Michelin (+3.5%), WPP (+5.8%), LafargeHolcim (+2.0%) and Moncler (+8.5%) were all buoyed by strong earnings. Moreover, Barclays (+0.9%) results were firm; the bank beat on top line expectations, including healthy CIB revenue, and adjusted pretax posted firm Q/Q gains. Despite a GBP 1.4bln provision for compensating customers caught up in the PPI mis-selling scandal, Barclay shares rose to the highest since November 2018. Conversely, Capgemini (-6.7%), Eni (-1.0%) and MTU Aero Engines (-1.5%) earnings were poor, seeing their stocks come under pressure.

Top European News

  • U.K.’s Javid Concedes Split Will Be After Oct. 31: Brexit Update
  • United Internet Drops After Cutting Forecast on Lost Fee Dispute
  • SoftwareONE Gains After Raising $699 Million in Swiss IPO
  • Ad Giant WPP Posts Surprise Sales Rise in Boost to CEO Read

In FX, the Euro has extended its recovery from sub-1.1100 lows vs the Dollar in wake of October’s German Ifo readings that were broadly better anticipated and prompted the institute to conclude that the economy may be finding a base, with modest growth likely in Q4. However, Eur/Usd still looks leggy between decent option expiries (1.5 bn from 1.1090 to 1.1100 and 1 bn at 1.1150-55) and a broadly firm Greenback, as the DXY holds above 97.500 within a 97.573-712 range following Thursday’s encouraging US Markit PMIs.

  • AUD/NZD/NOK/SEK – The G10 outliers, with the Aussie outperforming vs US and NZ counterparts after holding above 0.6800 and reclaiming 1.0700+ status respectively, while the Kiwi has lost more momentum below 0.6400. Similarly, the Scandi Crowns are retreating further from best levels seen in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s Riksbank policy declaration about a probable rate hike in December on the assumption that it will be one more and done akin to the Norges Bank after September’s 25 bp tightening. Eur/Nok is nudging 10.1900 and also being driven by the aforementioned incremental Euro incline, while Eur/Sek has been back above 10.7500 compared to just under 10.6500 at one stage on Thursday.
  • CHF/CAD/JPY/GBP – All narrowly mixed against the Buck, as the Franc pares some losses from 0.9930, but remains below 0.9900 and the Loonie meanders between 1.3060-75 ahead of Canadian budget balance updates for August due later. Meanwhile, the Yen is holding within 108.70-57 parameters and even the Pound is relatively restrained due to less Brexit buffeting (for now), as Cable pivots 1.2850 and Eur/Gbp straddles 0.8650.
  • EM – Central Bank vibes in play, as the Lira concedes more ground after the CBRT’s 250 bp rate cut and Turkish President Erdogan piles on the pressure for further aggressive easing via a single digit call for the benchmark 1 week repo vs 14% at present. Usd/Try has touched 5.7900 before paring back, but the Rouble seems to be taking a widely expected CBR cut in stride ahead of the 11.30BST decision even though weaker than forecast inflation opens the door to -1/2 point after 3 cuts of 25 bp in a row. Usd/Rub sub-64.0000.

In commodities, Crude futures are marginally lower in uninspired trade amid a lack of fresh fundamental developments and look set to end the week on a firmer footing; the key driver of Crude’s strong performance this week was a surprise draw in EIA inventories on Wednesday, slightly over 10mln bbls in total. Additionally, further disruptions to the North Sea Buzzard Oil field and a temporary shutdown to the Forties Pipeline System also lent support. WTI futures have made substantial strides from early October lows, with the Dec’ 19 future currently residing just shy of the USD 56.00/bbl mark, while Brent sits at the USD 61.50/bbl mark. The USD 50.50/bbl – USD 51.00/bbl region for WTI, a quadruple bottom for June, August and early October, remains impenetrable for now. Though demand side concerns continue to cap gains, as evidenced by crude’s inability to hold on to last month’s post Aramco attack related gains, geopolitical risk premia remains ever present, as does the prospect for further OPEC+ cuts (sources hinted at the latter earlier in the week, although Russia’s Novack played things down). Metals are similarly lacklustre; Gold yesterday reclaimed the USD 1500/oz mark and sits below USD 1510/oz. Copper, meanwhile, hold on to decent gains for the week, supported by unrest and strikers in Chile that has affected supply of the red metal.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 96, prior 96; Current Conditions, prior 113.4; Expectations, prior 84.8
    • U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.5%
    • U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.2%
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $83.0b, prior $119.1b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

An interesting past 24 hours where flash PMIs were slightly on the disappointing side, Draghi said goodbye in a classic Game of Thrones manner (see explanation below), Pence finally gave his hawkish China speech and a crafty plan from U.K. PM Johnson was unleashed to give Parliament more time to scrutinise his bill but only in return for a pre-Xmas election. Oh and Amazon fell -6.81% in after hours trading after soft earnings guidance. Given my weekly recycling bin is always full of Amazon boxes after deliveries of essentials for the children then I’m a little surprised at this!

Anyway, apologies for this but let’s get Brexit out the way first. You’re welcome to skip the next three short paras if you’re fed up with it. As looked likely as soon as he suspended the Brexit bill on Tuesday, last night PM Johnson tabled a Parliamentary vote for Monday for an election on December 12th and will offer Parliament more time to debate his Brexit bill if they agree to it. Parliament would now have until November 6th to scrutinise his bill under his plan (assuming the election date is approved).

The biggest issue for the government is that under The Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011 he’ll need a two-thirds majority. Labour are in a very difficult position as they have been first demanding an election and then shifting to demanding one after a no-deal Brexit has been taken off the table. Assuming the EU agree an expected length extension today or by Monday at the latest it will be very difficult to credibly vote against it. Confusion reigned afterwards though as Labour whips were initially told to abstain before leader Jeremy Corbyn said that he is awaiting the EU’s response before deciding whether to back an election, but if no-deal is taken off the table, then “we will absolutely support an election.” The Liberal Democrats took a similar position, refusing to commit until after the EU responds, while the SNP said that they would support an early election but possibly not under Johnson’s timetable whereby the Brexit legislation would be tabled again before the vote takes place. Unless Labour make a proper about-turn, Monday could be yet another damp squib of a vote.

EU ambassadors will be meeting today to decide the length of an extension with some talk of a two tiered extension – first to get the current deal through and if that fails, one out to end of January. This is all speculation though. I wonder whether Mr Johnson has consulted with Mr Macron about his plan and whether that will influence his thinking. Speculation continued yesterday that the French leader was still hawkish about an extension but most expect him to reluctantly agree to the Benn Act’s request. So all eyes on the EU and then all eyes on the Labour Party. One curveball would be that the EU wait until after the vote on Monday. Another curveball would be the government going on strike if they don’t get their motion passed. On the former, overnight news reports from Bloomberg suggest that the EU might now hold off on its extension decision today as it seeks more clarity from the UK itself before making a decision. They are not to get any clarity until after the vote on Monday. So a game of chicken and the egg awaits. A fun few days ahead… yet again.

Another highlight yesterday was the hawkish speech vis-à-vis China from Vice President Pence. He had been expected to use confrontational rhetoric regarding China’s human and civil rights record, including the situation in Hong Kong. He did talk about those issues, but he also linked them with an eventual trade deal, saying that it would be harder to cooperate on trade if the authorities resort to violence against the protesters in Hong Kong. Previously, senior administration officials had barely spoken about Hong Kong, let alone link it directly to trade talks. At the margin, such rhetoric is likely to make a deal more difficult to achieve, though Pence did also insist that the US does not want a confrontation and that he wants the relationship to be based on “candor, fairness, and mutual respect.” Earlier, Bloomberg had reported that China aims to buy at least $20bn of agricultural products in a year if it signs a partial trade deal with the US and this will take China’s imports of US farm goods back to around 2017 levels, before the impositions of tariffs started. The report further added that in the second year of a potential final deal, purchases could rise to $40 bn to $50 bn but that would depend on Trump removing remaining punitive tariffs. As we go to print, Reuters is reporting that China is likely to ask the US to cancel some of planned and existing tariffs on Chinese imports in exchange for buying more US farm products. The report further added that China is likely to ask the US to drop the proposed plan of imposing tariffs on the additional $156bn of Chinese imports on December 15 along with the removal of 15% tariffs imposed on Sept. 1 on about $125 billion of Chinese goods.  The USTR Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are scheduled to speak to Chinese Vice Premier Liu He today over telephone.

Back in Europe, the ECB left policy unchanged at Mario Draghi’s swansong as ECB President yesterday, in a move that had been expected after September’s policy package. Draghi said the decision was unanimous, which makes a contrast from last month’s meeting. It actually reminded me of Game of Thrones where all the action usually came to a climatic conclusion in the penultimate episode of a series before the tidying up of loose ends in the final one. Draghi fought his last major battle in September and this was his epilogue. Indeed Draghi justified the moves last month, saying that “Everything that has happened since September has showed that the Governing Council’s determination to act in a substantive manner was justified.” Striking a negative tone on the growth outlook, Draghi’s statement said the risks to the growth outlook “remain on the downside”, in stronger language than his previous press statement where he said they “remain tilted to the downside”. However, Draghi did say that the reduced chance of a hard Brexit was a positive development.

After the press conference, the Euro weakened against the dollar, ending the day -0.23 %, while bond markets rallied after a bit of a see-saw day. 10yr bunds (-1.2bps), OATs (-1.4bps) and OATs (-3.0bps) all pared back earlier losses to end the day higher, with 10yr bunds closing below -0.40% for the first time in a week. Meanwhile Greek ten-year yields fell for the 9th time in the last 10 sessions to a fresh record low of 1.218%. European banks gave up their gains however, with the STOXX Banks index ending the session -0.59%, while inflation expectations were unmoved after Draghi, with five-year forward five-year inflation swaps remaining at 1.203 %. In the US, Treasuries rallied a bit with 10yr yields -0.3 bps and the 2s10s curve +0.3bps. Gold rallied as the press conference was taking place, ending the day up +0.75% and at a two-week high.

With Draghi speaking of a worsening outlook, the preliminary PMIs out yesterday painted a mixed picture on that front. The Euro strengthened to its high for the day of $1.1163 along with bond yields after the better-than-expected French releases, where both services (52.6 vs. 51.0 expected) and manufacturing (50.5 vs. 50.2 expected) came in ahead of expectations. However, the currency and yields gave up their gains after the German reading underwhelmed and the Eurozone reading was basically as expected. In Germany, services fell to a 37-month low of 51.2 (vs. 52.0 expected), while manufacturing saw a modest recovery from its 10-year low to reach 41.9 (vs. 42.0 expected). The overall picture for the Eurozone was basically one of stagnation, with the Eurozone composite PMI at 50.2 (vs. 50.3 expected). In contrast to the last couple of months, we also saw the gap between the manufacturing (45.7) and services (51.8) PMIs widen once more, up by 0.2pts to 6.1pts. That said this gap is still below the peak in July of 6.7pts. And in the US, although the market is more attuned to the ISM readings, the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.5 (vs. 50.9 expected), while the services reading saw in line with expectations at 51.0 (from 50.9 last month), both remaining near their cyclical lows.

Turning to equities now, US markets made modest gains yesterday as they reacted to a stream of earnings releases, though technology stocks outperformed with the NASDAQ +0.81%. Semiconductors (+2.47%) in particular outperformed, boosted by a positive report from Lam Research (+13.90%) which alleviated concerns around the sector which surfaced after Texas Instruments’ poor guidance earlier this week. The S&P 500 was up +0.19%, and both of the major indexes have traded in tight ranges of just 2% over the last 10 trading sessions. Twitter was the biggest faller on the index yesterday, down -20.83% after the company saw revenue miss expectations in Q3 with guidance for Q4 lower. Meanwhile, a poor result from MMM (-4.06%) dragged on the DOW, which ended -0.11%. After markets closed, Amazon (-6.81% after hours) dropped on surprisingly low revenue guidance for the fourth quarter, on lower expected holiday volumes as well as reduced activity from the profitable cloud computing business line. On a positive note, Intel (+4.10% after hours) increased their full-year revenue guidance.

In Europe the session ended in positive territory, with the STOXX 600 up +0.59% to a fresh one-year high, while the DAX (+0.58%), the CAC 40 (+0.55%) and the FTSE MIB (+0.79%) all rose on the day.

Asian markets are largely trading flat this morning with the Nikkei (+0.01%), Shanghai Comp (-0.01%) and Kospi (-0.03%) making very modest moves while the Hang Seng is down (-0.44%). Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading unchanged while the US dollar index is up +0.06% this morning after advancing +0.14% yesterday. Yields on 10y USTs are down -1.4bps and oil prices are c. -0.50% lower.

Moving back to Europe, tomorrow sees the first-round results announced for the SPD leadership race in Germany, who are currently in coalition with Angela Merkel’s CDU. Our FX strategists have written about why this result will matter for the Euro, as depending on the result this could have big implications for the fiscal stance of the country’s grand coalition, and even its survival. If finance minister Scholz were to fail to reach the run-off, that would favour more left-wing candidates who want to end the balanced-budget commitment and question the debt brake. Victory for a more left-wing candidate also raise the tail risks around the planned SPD mid-term review of the coalition planned for December, potentially leading to the SPD pulling out. See Robin Winkler’s blog here .

Before we look at the day ahead let’s tidy up other data releases from the US. Core durable goods orders fell -0.5% (vs. -0.1% expected), while core shipments fell -0.7% (vs. -0.2% expected). So a bit weak. US initial jobless claims fell to 212k (vs. 215k expected), although the previous week’s reading was revised up by +4k. New home sales were at 701k in September (vs. 702k expected), although last month saw a small -6k downward revision. And finally the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index fell to -3 as expected, which was its second lowest reading since President Trump’s election.

Looking to the day ahead now, and earnings releases continue today with Verizon Communications, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Charter Communications and Barclays. In terms of data, there’ll be the Ifo business climate index from Germany, as well as GfK’s consumer confidence reading. From France, we’ll get September’s PPI, while in the US there’s the final University of Michigan sentiment reading for October. Finally from central banks, the ECB’s Villeroy will be speaking while the Russian central bank will be deciding on rates.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.01 POINTS OR 0.48%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 130.56 POINTS OR 0.49%   /The Nikkei closed UP 49.21 POINTS OR XXX%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  .65%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0702 /Oil UP TO 56.11 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0702 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0700 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Soft bank’s huge gamble on unicorns may bring down sovereign Japan

(zerohedge)

Is SoftBank The Bubble Era’s “Short Of The Century”

Take a close look at the following two slides which have been a staple presence in every SoftBank presentation in recent quarters.

Actually, add these two charts to the mix:

We somehow doubt we will see any, if not all of these charts, in any future Softbank presentation.

Why? Because, in a brutal wake up call for Japan’s SoftBank, which for years has drifted happily in the miasma of central bank liquidity-induced delusion with just the right dose of “humility” seeing itself as the “conductor of the AI revolution“…

… and with just the right dose of insanity projecting its market cap to do this in 20 years…

… Bloomberg reports that the bank/telecom/venture investor/whatever is planning to take a writedown to its Vision Fund of at least $5 billion to reflect a plunge in the value of some of its biggest holdings, including WeWork and Uber Technologies.

According to Bloomberg sources, the Japanese parent of the $100 billion Vision Fund is set to unveil the writedown when SoftBank announces second-quarter earnings on Nov. 6, mostly due to the Vision Fund’s holdings in ride-hailing giant Uber and WeWork (we would say “We” but we probably have to pay Adam Neumann royalties for using that word), the devastated office sublettor which just lost $40 billion in value in a few weeks, that SoftBank had no choice but rescue earlier this week, and double down on its investment or else risk a total wipeout of its $9 billion or so existing investment.

As Bloomberg notes, whereas both Uber and WeWork were once “among the brightest stars in the SoftBank constellation”, prominently displayed in every company presentation, they are now among its worst performers.

And, as we have snarked in the past…

zerohedge@zerohedge

When is the BOJ’s bailout of Softbank?

43 people are talking about this

… the collapse in valuations of these unicorns have not only prompted rhetorical questions whether the BOJ will be called in to bailout SoftBank in the not too distant future, but also prompted questions about billionaire Masayoshi Son’s investment acumen (does he actually do any analysis on his investments) and credibility at a time he’s trying to raise an even larger successor to his original mega fund, the Vision Fund 2…

… which SoftBank hopes will be even bigger than the first Vision Fund, which us in large part backed by SoftBank, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment, and which has made 83 investments by June 30, according to an August disclosure. Maybe not: in fact, after the implosion of WeWork some of the most morbid jokes on Wall Street include Masa Son, a visit to a Saudi embassy and Jamal Khashoggi’s bonesaw all in the same sentence.

In any case, as Bloomberg notes, “the tepid performance of ride-hailing stocks in particular has influenced the way SoftBank is thinking about valuing its investments in the sector” noting that public markets – unlike the massive billionaire circle jerk that are “private markets” – have “not been kind to either Lyft or Uber, which has tumbled more than 25% since its May initial public offering.”

As a result, the Vision Fund is reassessing its recorded valuations of other ride-hailing companies, such as Didi and Grab Holdings: according to Bloomberg data, between June 30 and Sept. 30, the value of SoftBank’s 13% stake in Uber decreased by about $3.5 billion.

What is bizarre is that if the math is correct, the upcoming $5 billion writedown then implies a loss of only $1.5 billion in SoftBank’s WeWork investment when considering its current valuation of just under $8 billion and the latest bailout package from Softbank of roughly the same size, Masa Son’s updated mark on its existing WeWork investment should be orders of magnitude greater, if not the entire thing.

That’s probably why Bloomberg also adds that the writedown could be “as high as $7 billion”, as the amount has not yet been finalized and could still change. That surpasses some market projections: Mizuho Securities analyst Yusuke Hori has estimated declines in portfolio companies could force SoftBank to book as much as a 500 billion yen ($4.6 billion) valuation loss.

Yet the fact that even now SoftBank – which was left on the verge of bankruptcy when the dot com bubble burst – is unwilling to pull off the band aid and to admit it has made many mistakes in its pursuit of its target of a 200 trillion yen market cap, should be a major alarm to everyone in the financial world.

Meanwhile, as the WSJ journal reports this morning, after suffering billions of dollars of losses on its investment in WeWork, the Vision Fund “is scaling back its high-risk investing strategy and focusing more on improving corporate governance at portfolio companies, according to current and former executives at the fund.”

Masayoshi Son, SoftBank’s chairman and CEO who also runs the Vision Fund, has told staffers at the fund to push the companies in which it owns stakes to generate cash, these people said, a drastic shift from his earlier demands that they spend aggressively to drive sales growth. Vision Fund executives are scrutinizing some deals more closely, such as one for a company that designs robots to cook hamburgers.

With investors suddenly balking at “growth” narratives and ridiculous mission statements (such as “elevating the world’s consciousness”) and focusing on profits, SoftBank finds itself in a corner, and following three years of rapid, tumultuous growth at any cost, the fund is also focusing on improving corporate governance at portfolio companies and possibly looking to reduce staff by asking some weaker employees to leave.

And just as WeWork is now engaging in mass layoffs, SoftBank itself could be next, with the WSJ noting that in recent weeks, “leaders of the fund’s investment teams have been asked to make lists of their weaker employees, possibly a prelude to small staff cuts” with both moves a first for the fund. Meanwhile, sensing what’s coming, roughly a dozen investment staff have left on their own since the spring of this year, “many unhappy about what they see as a toxic culture with competing teams, inexperienced investment executives, and poor communication, as well as a risky incentive structure that, for some, made it less appealing to be at the fund, people familiar with the structure said.”

In short, SoftBank’s bubble has finally burst, and what comes next could be nothing short of disaster.

But it’s not just SoftBank that faces a grim future: the size of SoftBank’s investments was large enough to dramatically affect the way the Silicon Valley startup ecosystem operates, as Bloomberg notes. The Vision Fund – whose massive portfolio spans numerous industries but has been dominated by transportation and logistics bets, with $28.3 billion of its total investments dedicated to this sector as of June 30 – reported that it had made cumulative investments of $71.4 billion, and had combined unrealized and realized gains from investments and related hedges of $20.2 billion; a year-on-year jump from $30.9 billion in investments and $5.2 billion in cumulative gains.

“Eventually this is going to come back to haunt them,” said Asymmetric Advisors’ strategist Amir Anvarzadeh said. The question is when.

For now, SoftBank’s shares slid 2.7% to their lowest since January (when SoftBank announced it would repurchase over 10% of its stock, sending it soaring to all time high), putting the stock on track for a fourth straight day of losses.

The real question, however, is whether not WeWork, but SoftBank will turn out to be the most levered poster child for the liquidity excesses of the current asset bubble, and by extension, whether SoftBank will be the short of the century. While the answer will ultimately depend on what central bankers do over the next few years, here is our contribution (in red) to one of SoftBank’s most egregious examples of hubris taken straight from its latest investor presentation.

3 C CHINA

HONG KONG
Hong Kong on the brink of collapse as foreign visitors will not come to the city because of the protests.  Hotel workers are being laid off.  Retail sales have plummeted by a huge 50%
(zerohedge)

“Brink Of Collapse”: Hong Kong Businesses Struggle To Survive Amid Violent Protests 

Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam said earlier this month, the city’s economy had slipped into a “technical recession” after many months of violent protests.

Bloomberg’s new report, comprised of several interviews and retail data points of the city, offers a leading view of economic turmoil in the city that could lead to a severe financial crisis.

Kirio Zhou, a resident of mainland China, spoke with Bloomberg and said the retail business in Hong Kong is on the brink of collapse. Rooms at the most high-end hotels, like Marco Polo Hongkong in Tsim Sha Tsui, are going for $72 per night, a 75% discount versus last year.

“I thought it was a per-person price at first,” said the 23-year-old lawyer, who saw Hong Kong’s small but expensive accommodations as a big pain point. “But now really cool places are offered at a low price. I hope this will continue.”

Paul Luciw, an internet entrepreneur, said the hotel traffic in Hong Kong has dropped. He was able, according to Bloomberg, barter a hotel room at a luxury hotel in the city for ad space on his website.

David Whitfield@DavidWh70947405

trip booked for next Thursday, considering whether to change travel plans or take the gamble due to the and riots. Any advice or input appreciated

phugh@phugh7

I just left there. It was crazy riots every night, had fires under my Hilton Hotel. Go somewhere else. My biggest concern is they closed down the airport last week. They are taking the lead from Hong Kong protests. I don’t believe it will end soon

Embedded video

Hong Kong’s Aug. retail sales were awful, the worst on record., and the accounts from Zhou and Luciw — indicate just how desperate Hong Kong businesses are to survive.

“It’s absolutely life and death for us,” said Douglas Young, co-founder of Goods Of Desire, or G.O.D, a lifestyle and fashion store-chain operator in Hong Kong, in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “At the moment we’re calculating whether or not it’s cheaper for us to just fold or to continue, it’s that serious.”

Retail sales in Aug. plunged 23% Y/Y, worse than the 21.48% drop in Sept. 1998, as violent protests continue to cause mini-economic shocks in shopping districts and malls.

CNA

@ChannelNewsAsia

Luxury brands face a dilemma as Hong Kong retail hits the skids https://cna.asia/33ysfeo

View image on Twitter

As a result, Prada SpA, Ralph Lauren Corp., and Levi Strauss & Co. have said store sales are quickly slipping into year-end with no end in sight on resolving the protests.

“Retail sales will likely remain in the doldrums in the near term, as the worsened economic outlook and local protests involving violence continue to weigh on consumer sentiment and inbound tourism,” a government spokesman said in Sept.

Jewelry stores are typical shops that mainland Chinese would visit, have seen sales collapse by 50% in Aug Y/Y.

We even reported that depressed jewelry sales in the city had contributed to a collapse of Israel’s diamond industry. This is an indication that the Hong Kong economic crisis is spreading throughout the world.

Anyone who wants to travel to Hong Kong this week, departing from Washington, D.C., airports can experience at least a 50% savings on roundtrip plane tickets at the moment because air travel to Hong Kong remains depressed.

Arrivals to Hong Kong plunged 39% to 3.56 million in Aug Y/Y. Hotel data showed occupancy levels have fallen by a third to 66% in Aug., Hong Kong Tourism Board data showed.

Angela Whelan@angela_whelan

just outside my hotel (just in case anyone had any doubts as to their existence).

Embedded video

Local businesses are cutting back on their workforce as approximately 77% of all hotel workers have just been asked to go on leave without pay.

“Hotels were expecting things to pick up in October and November. Obviously, that has not happened,” said Luciw. “We are being approached almost daily by hotel groups looking to advertise.”

Raymond Yeung, the chief Greater China economist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg that hotel price discounts are mostly “protest-driven.”

“Are we going to see business travelers come to Hong Kong? Are we going to see all the exhibitions resumed?” Yeung said, adding that several major conferences in the city have been canceled.

Hong Kong’s economic sag could be a bellwether for the global economy ahead of 2020. And as we’ve mentioned, protests are erupting across the world, not just in Hong Kong. These social unrests are creating mini-economic shocks in local economies, and all of these shocks are happening at the same time as the global economy could be entering a period of vulnerability. This means the world might be one economic shock away from recession. 

END

Hong Kong/Spain

Hong Kong protesters now show support for Catalan separatists who want their own indepednece

(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Protesters Show Support For Catalan Separatists

Hundreds of protesters in Hong Kong showed their support for Catalonian separatists on Thursday, waving Catalan flags and banners urging “a fight for freedom together.”

 

A pro-democracy demonstrator holds an Estelada (Catalan separatist flag) and a phone with a flashlight during a protest in Hong Kong’s Chater Garden showing their solidarity with the Catalonian independence movement in Spain, in Hong Kong, China, October 24, 2019. REUTERS/Ammar Awad

Thursday’s rally was held in a downtown garden according to Reuters, one of the few to have obtained a permit from authorities in recent weeks. While organizers said that 3,000 people showed up, the police put the figure at 550.

After Hong Kong was handed over by Britain to Chinese rule, they were allowed to retain several freedoms not enjoyed on the mainland under a “one country, two systems” formula – which includes the right to protest as well as a non-communist judicial system.

“The context (of Catalonia and Hong Kong) is different,” said Barcelona tourist Richard Bosom, telling Reuters “Both are different stories, but in general terms… it is about an oppressive and tyrannical state against a group of people that are trying to do something different and they are not listened to..

In Hong Kong’s demonstrations, millions have taken to the streets in sometimes violent clashes over what they see as China’s tightening grip. Most protesters in the former British colony want greater democracy, among other demands, although a small minority is calling for independence.

In that sense, they share some common ground with separatist demonstrators in Spain’s wealthy northeast region of Catalonia, which was rocked by protests after nine separatist leaders were sentenced this month to long prison terms for a failed independence bid in 2017. –Reuters

The majority of political parties in Spain have rejected an independence referendum for Catalonia, however separatist parties are not banned from the region which enjoys autonomy similar to that of Hong Kong’s relationship with China.

Meanwhile in Barcelona, a small demonstration was held on Thursday outside the Chinese Consulate-General according to La Vanguardia.

Over seven million people live in Catalonia, which sports its own language and a separate flag. Protests erupted after the separatist leaders were sentenced on October 14 over the 2017 bid for independence.

end
China/USA
Beijing slams Pence as a slandering arrogant person.  This is no way to get a trade deal
(zerohedge)

Beijing Slams “Slandering, Arrogant” Pence Speech: “Look In The Mirror” And “Get Your Racist House In Order”

Vice President Mike Pence was called on once again to play the ‘bad cop’ in Washington’s negotiations with China yesterday when he delivered an aggressive speech blasting Beijing’s record on human rights. As noted yesterday, in a twice-delayed hawkish speech, Pence defended the pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, while slamming both Nike and the NBA for kowtowing to Beijing.

Predictably, Beijing struck back on Friday, blasting the US’s endemic racism and other problems that have “cast aside its morality and credibility.” Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, slammed Pence’s “arrogance”, and insisted that nothing could halt China’s development. She also accused Pence of trying to disrupt China’s “unity or internal stability” and said Hong Kong, Taiwan and the far west region of Xinjiang are “internal affairs” that are none of Washington’s business, according to Bloomberg.

“The U.S. has already abandoned and cast aside its morality and credibility,” Hua said. “We hope these Americans can look at themselves in the mirror to fix their own problems and get their own house in order.”

Meanwhile, the English-language Global Times tabloid, widely seen as a mouthpiece for the Communist Party, accused Pence of “slandering” Beijing and said his speech was boring and unoriginal, relying on many of the same “old gripes” that he articulated during last year’s speech.

The speech repeated criticisms made last year that included accusations of intellectual property theft, militarizing the South China Sea, religious persecution, and silencing freedom of speech. Pence also slandered China over Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang.

But both Pence and Beijing left room for compromise. Pence said the US does not seek confrontation with China or “to decouple” from the world’s second-largest economy. He also mentioned the friendship between Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart Donald Trump.

Pence also praised the White House’s China policy, emphasizing its effectiveness and the progress that has been made in the trade talks as something that will benefit both Washington and Beijing.

The GT said the US and China “have many reasons to stick with peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation.”

“China and the U.S. have different political systems. It means that it is impossible to change the political foundation of China…However, China and the U.S. have many reasons to stick with peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation.”

Pence’s most stinging criticism of China was indirect, in remarks targeting Nike Inc. and the NBA.

“Nike promotes itself as a so-called ‘social-justice champion,’ but when it comes to Hong Kong, it prefers checking its social conscience at the door,” Pence said.

Whether or not the two sides finally reach even a partial agreement with ‘Phase 1’ of the trade deal, which will supposedly be finished in the not-too-distant future, Washington will need to keep the pressure on Beijing as it struggles to preserve its military and commercial supremacy in the Pacific.

As for Trump, he also needs to balance the “threat” of an improving trade dialog just so the Fed does not decide that the conflict with China is going better than expected and suddenly surprises markets by ending the “midcycle adjustment” and resumes hiking. As such, expect Pence to take on an increasingly “bad cop” role over the next 12 months.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SYRIA/USA/

That did not take long!! The White House is now considering a complete reversal and may leave 500 troops and supply battle tanks. The obviously need Syrian oil to be in their hands.

(zerohedge)

White House Considering Syria Reversal: May Leave 500 Troops, Deploy Dozens Of Battle Tanks

Just days after apparently withdrawing US troops from Syria, much to the chagrin of the military-industrial-complex-sponsored Washington establishment, The Wall Street Journal reports that The White House is considering options for leaving about 500 U.S. troops in northeast Syria and sending dozens of battle tanks and other equipment to protect them.

The abrupt reversal, reportedly suggested to President Trump by military officials fits with his statement earlier today that he wanted to safeguard the oil fields (seen by Washington as potential leverage in future negotiations over Syria), tweeting:

“We will NEVER let a reconstituted ISIS have those fields!”

 

Syria is now politically more fragmented than ever, as the following chart from Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows, parts of the country are controlled by various faction s (based on Liveuamap data analysed by the German newspaper Handelsblatt).

Infographic: The Current Situation in Syria | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In the north there is a strip about 30 kilometres wide, which Turkey seeks to control as a “safe zone”. The parts into which Turkish troops have already penetrated are coloured purple. The red areas were newly occupied by Syrian-Russian forces, showing how Assad is now gaining influence in the region. The majority of the planned Turkish control zone is still controlled by Kurdish militias (yellow areas on the map).

The options for tanks and troops, which The Journal notes hasn’t been decided upon yet, has the smell of a strawman from the neocons – bargaining over troop numbers and logistics – in an effort to gauge the base’s reaction and to then provide some leverage on the president to reverse his position more aggressively.

As a reminder, after ordering all U.S. forces out of northeastern Syria in early October, Trump has already modestly reversed his position, agreeing (after Sen. Lindsey Graham outlined the potential importance of the oil) to leave about 200 troops in northeast Syria to safeguard oil fields.

Of course, it is still unclear what will be done with the approximately 1,000 troops – mostly special ops – but, as Senator Graham made clear – they’re not coming home any time soon:

“There are some plans coming together from the Joint Chiefs that I think may work, that may give us what we need to prevent ISIS from coming back, Iran taking the oil, ISIS from taking the oil,” he said.

“I am somewhat encouraged that a plan is coming about that will meet our core objectives in Syria.”

Perhaps the Deep State’s grip is a little firmer, and Graham’s marshalling of Senate votes to ‘save’ Trump from impeachment, than the president initially conceived.

One thing is for sure, if this reversal takes place, Putin and Erdogan will not be pleased at all, and with Defense Secretary Mark Esper, in Brussels, alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, noting that NATO ally Turkey “put us all in a terrible situation,” one could imagine this strategy is one of stalling while the nukes can be moved from Incirlik to another ‘ally’ ahead of the planned votes next week on additional Turkish sanctions (as questions about the viability of Turkey as a NATO ally so closely aligned with Russia are growing stronger – in rhetoric only for now)

 

end.

LEBANON

Looks like we are having a bank run over in Lebanon.  They have already closed their banks for 7 days. USA dollars are very scarce here

(zerohedge)

“Panic Mode” Run On Lebanon’s Banks Feared After 7-Day Closure Amid Protests 

Banks across Lebanon have been shuttered now fora seventh consecutive day, with the country’s banking association saying banks would remain closed Friday over “safety concerns” as massive anti-corruption protests have brought multiple cities to a standstill, which began a week ago.

Reuters reports that banking operations have been “limited to paying out customer and employee salaries via ATMs” in a situation which has also hit war-torn Syria, given many Syrians rely on the neighboring Lebanese banking system to hold dollars and savings following the collapse of Syria’s currency.

 

Via NBC News

For the first time addressing the protests  dubbed the ‘WhatsApp Revolution’ because it was initially triggered by a government  plan to boost state revenues with a daily tax rate on calls made via voice over internet protocol (VoIP), utilized by applications such as Facebook-owned WhatsApp — Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun in a public speech touted an economic reform package proposed by the prime minister as a “first step” toward staving off economic collapse.

 

Aoun acknowledged state corruption has “eaten us to the bone” and assured the crowds,  “I am ready to meet your representatives who carry your concerns, to listen to your specific demands.”

He also hinted at a government reshuffle potentially in the works, saying that there was “a need to review the current government.”

 

Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun, via Al Jazeera

But he also lambasted the fact that the some one million or more strong protests (up to a quarter of Lebanon’s entire population), has paralyzed transportation in the major cities such as Beirut, including blocking access at times to the main international airport.\

The demonstrators established roadblocks during the early days of the crisis, amid severe clashes with police. Schools have also remained shut alongside the banks and some public institutions.

Bernie Sanders issued rare Washington support for the mass protests in a tweet earlier this week, vowing to “fight corruption, repression, inequality and austerity.”

Bernie Sanders

@SenSanders

The Arab Spring rose up to fight corruption, repression, inequality and austerity. The Lebanon and Iraq protests show this spirit is still very much alive. If we want a progressive future, we need to build up a global movement of and for working people.

Embedded video

“We will discuss what we can do together to achieve your objectives without causing collapse and chaos, open a constructive dialogue that can lead to a constructive result, and define options that will lead to the best results,” President Aoun said, urging a removal of the roadblocks.

He also vowed that politicians which had robbed public coffers would be investigated and held to account, however, a number of protest leaders interviewed by international press weren’t buying it.

The Guardian

@guardian

Lebanon protests: key moments from a week of unrest

Embedded video

There’s growing concern ofa potential run on the banks the moment they finally do open, which is still as yet uncertain.

As CNBC summarizes:

No one seems to know when the country’s lenders will reopen, triggering warnings of a run on the banks when they eventually do.

“Indeed we are afraid of a panic mode once they open,” Fouad Zmokhol, president of the Worldwide Association of Lebanese Businesspeople, told CNBC from Beirut.

“The cash of the banks are in reserve at the Central Bank or are in Treasury bills. The cash of the banks are not in the bank deposits,so no, they don’t have enough cash for everyone that would come and ask for any cash of transfer. So this is the main problem, we have to reduce the panic.

The country’s dollar reserves, crucial for imports, are what’s in trouble and not necessarily the Lebanese pound. President Aoun’s speech was also aimed at restoring faith in the system, and calming the widespread panic over a potential looming economic collapse.

According to Reuters:

Government measures announced this week that include halving minister salaries, taxing banks and overhauling the wasteful electricity sector have failed to defuse popular anger and have yet to prod Western donors to move forward on the pledged financing.

Dalal Mawadدلال معوض

@dalalmawad

This is a protest in Jal El Dib, an area on the outskirts of Beirut .

View image on Twitter

The country has lately suffered a severe slowdown in capital flows, and difficulty of importers securing dollars at the pegged exchange rate, as well as periodic collapse of public services – due to frequent strikes, work stoppages, and lack of public funding.

END
TURKEY/RUSSIA/USA/NATO
Gatestone’s Coughlin argues that it is now time to exclude Turkey from Nato
(zerohedge)

Should Erdogan’s Summit With Putin Be Ringing Alarm Bells For NATO?

Authored by Con Coughlin via The Gatestone Institute,

With Turkey seemingly intent on forging an ever-closer relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the time has come to give serious consideration to Ankara’s continued membership of the NATO alliance.

When the Turks first became members of NATO back in 1952, it was because their country was seen as a vital bulwark against the Soviet Union. Having Turkey in NATO meant it was easier to monitor the activities of the Soviet Black Sea fleet, and limited Moscow’s ability to spread its tentacles into eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Now, thanks to the increasingly anti-Western conduct of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, none of these considerations remains relevant.

These days, the Soviet Union might be no more, but Russia under Mr Putin’s autocratic rule is just as determined to undermine the West and its allies, and Mr Erdogan, to judge by his successful summit with the Russian leader on October 22 at the Black Sea city of Sochi, is proving to be Moscow’s useful idiot in accomplishing these goals.

Relations between Ankara and Moscow have improved considerably since Turkish warplanes shot down a Russian military jet that had strayed into Turkish air space in 2015.

Thanks to the close rapport that exists between Mr Putin and Mr Erdogan, Russia’s Black Sea fleet is able to operate freely, to the extent that Russian warships based in the area were used to attack rebel forces in Syria fighting the regime of President Bashir al-Assad.

Now, following the success of the Sochi talks, the two countries have agreed to work together on the post-conflict carve-up of Syria, one that is designed to bolster the interests of both Russia and Turkey at the expense of the Syrian Kurds who were, until recently, regarded as vital allies of the US and other NATO member states in the fight against ISIS.

This means that Mr Erdogan can persist with his offensive against the Syrian Kurds, who commanded the pro-western Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the battle to destroy ISIS, as he seeks to establish what he calls a “safe zone” in northern Syria which, to judge by the appalling casualties the Kurds are suffering at the hands of the Turkish military, is anything but safe.

Nor is Mr Erdogan’s marriage of convenience with his Russian counterpart the first time that the Turkish leader has acted in a way that is directly contrary to NATO’s interests.

Earlier in the summer, Mr Erdogan drew heavy criticism from Washington after he did an arms deal with Moscow that enabled Ankara to purchase Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, which was specifically designed to shoot down NATO warplanes. The Trump administration responded by saying it would exclude Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter programme.

At a time when NATO is reconfiguring its resources to deal with the threat Russia poses to European security, from protecting the Baltic states from Russian aggression to dealing with cyber attacks, the cosy relationship that Mr Erdogan has embarked upon with Moscow can hardly be said to be in NATO’s interests.

The time has come, therefore, for the alliance to give serious consideration about whether Ankara should be allowed to retain its NATO membership, or whether to abandon Turkey to pursue its pro-Russian stance.

A number of prominent Republicans, such as US Senator Lindsey Graham, have already called for Turkey’s suspension from the alliance, and he has been the driving force behind attempts in Congress to impose sanctions against Ankara over its treatment of the Syrian Kurds.

Now the time has come for other NATO members states to weigh up whether it really is in their interests to allow the alliance’s only Muslim state to retain its membership.

In the past it has been argued that ending Turkey’s association with NATO would be a gift to Mr Putin, who would like to see nothing more than the NATO alliance collapse.

There is, though, a contrary argument to be made, namely that the alliance is already being weakened by allowing Turkey to retain its membership while at the same time pursuing policies which are directly opposed to NATO’s interests.

Consequently, to my mind NATO would be far stronger, and better-equipped, to deal with its adversaries if it did not have to contend with a fifth columnist state like Turkey operating within its ranks.

 end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1109 UP .0006 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.57 DOWN 0.043 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2824   DOWN   0.0014  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3068 DOWN .0003 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 6 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1109 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.01 POINTS OR 0.48% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 139.56 POINTS OR 0.49%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,65%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 130.56 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.01 POINTS OR 0.48%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 65% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 14.01  POINTS OR 0.48%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1509.40

silver:$18.16-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.77% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.26 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.66 UP 3 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.21% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.14%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.26%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.94 UP 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 68 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.39% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1088  UP     .0015 or 15 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.68 UP .171 OR YEN DOWN 17  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2839 UP .0001 POUND UP 1  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 12 basis points to 1.3059

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0654    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0580  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7667 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.14%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.77 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.26 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.81 UP 17  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 10.96  0.15%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 15.49 POINTS OR .12%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 32.25 POINTS 0.57%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 31.40 POINTS or 0.33%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 50.21 POINTS OR 0.22%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.34 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.77 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.70  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.36 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 36 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.39 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.67//

 

 

BRENT :  61.72

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.80..plus 3 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.29.plus 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1079 ( DOWN 25   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.67 UP .056 (YEN DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.83 UP 21 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2823 DOWN 15  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7688

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.86   UP 0.20 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 20 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3062 UP 9 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0654  (ONSHORE)

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0530 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.39%

 

The Dow closed UP 152.53 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 57.33 POINTS OR 0.70%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.74 CLOSED DOWN .74

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.935%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Soar To All-Time Highs Despite Record Global Uncertainty

The biggest short-squeeze in six weeks, mirroring the mid-September rebound…

Source: Bloomberg

Sent stocks to record highs today…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Despite global uncertainty being at all-time record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s a full Risk-Astley-tard market…

And everyone knows, you never go full Rick-Astley-tard!

While stocks reached record highs, perhaps the bigger news was the massive explosion higher in cryptos with Bitcoin up over $1200 on the day…This is the biggest daily gain for Bitcoin since April

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks ended notably higher on the week after Friday’s buying spree

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were mostly higher on the week with DAX leading the way as trade hopes revived but UK’s FTSE disappointed on Brexit progress being stymied…

Source: Bloomberg

US Equities were all higher on the week with Trannies the biggest gainer, followed by Nasdaq…

 

With S&P 500 leaving the key 3,000 behind and ramping above the closing record high (and within 0.5 points of the intraday record high)…

S&P Record Closing High 3025.86 (3027.98 intra)

Amazon’s collapse overnight sparked a panic-bid from the cash market open (NOTE – the ramp really accelerated from the US open to the EU close)…

Momo was lower for the 3rd week in a row – tumbling most since the quant quake in September…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was monkeyhammered back to a 12 handle for the first time since July…

Source: Bloomberg

Financials outperformed the market this week, decoupling from the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended the week higher after their spike today with the belly underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields spiked up to Monday’s highs today…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended the week higher, but well off the October highs

Source: Bloomberg

Cable sold off this week – after 3 huge weeks higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore Yuan rallied for the fourth week in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos ended the week higher after today’s huge buying…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin bouncing perfectly off its 200-day moving-average

Source: Bloomberg

Silver and Crude outperformed this week but all major commodities were higher

Source: Bloomberg

WTI topped $56 – to its highest since September…

Gold futures got back above $1500…

And silver soared back above $18…

 

Global negative-yielding debt rose very modestly this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that October is currently the most disappointing macro month since April 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

But then again, it’s not about fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

New York city housing bubble has just imploded.  The very big Tribeca home area witnesses a huge 28% plunge in house prices after  that huge  mansion tax bite

(zerohedge)

NYC Housing Bubble Implodes: Tribeca Home Prices Plunge 28% As New Taxes Bite

When NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio pushed through the controversial “mansion tax” hike on expensive NYC properties (what properties in the city aren’t?), real-estate experts warned that it would hurt he housing market. But their pleas that it could cause the unceremonious end of one of the frothiest property bubbles since the crisis fell on deaf ears.

De Blasio’s decision raised the mansion tax rate – officially known as the ‘transfer tax’ rate – from a 1% flat rate to a tiered system. The  higher mansion tax rates mean higher closing costs for buyers: For example, the transfer tax due on a $5 million property used to be $50,000. Now, it’s more than double that at $112,500.

It’s easy to brush this off as more rich people crying over unsubstantial sums, in reality, many of the people who are buying homes in the $2 million to $3 million range in NYC are (by the city’s standards) middle class. They don’t always have an extra $50,000 just sitting around. That, and this tax arrived not long after President Trump and the Congressional Republicans decided to punish their blue-state opponents by capping SALT deductions in their 2017 tax plan.

And now, Bloomberg warns that prices in some of the city’s trendiest neighborhoods are in free fall.

 

In Tribeca, prices for used homes plunged 28% YoY, the largest drop of any neighborhood in the city. The latest median sales price  on record was $2.25 million in Q3, according to property listings website StreetEasy. Values in both Greenwich Village and Chelsea also dropped by 15%. Meanwhile, the Upper West Side and the area that includes Soho were each down 14%.

For a more in-depth look at how the NYC housing market has changed, check out this Bloomberg piece, which features an interactive map allowing users to compare different neighborhoods. A quick scan of the data for TriBeCa, one of the city’s most established neighborhoods, compared with Astoria, Queens’s most up-and-coming-neighborhood, reveals a stunning divide.

While prices climbed for Astoria homes in Q3, prices fell for homes in TriBeCa. And while sales slowed in TriBeCa (only slightly), they effectively ground to a halt on TriBeCa.

While the NYC housing market is collapsing, and certain other tony areas like Greenwich, CT and municipalities out east in the Hamptons, are also struggling, Goldman analysts pointed out that sales prices in other nearby counties are holding up OK.

Meanwhile, as we’ve mentioned before, the share of listings in Manhattan (presumably including new condos and existing homes) that are seeing their current for-sale listing price on Zillow being lowered is expanding at an increasingly rapid rate.

Just as the inventory of homes being listed for sale is also climbing.

It doesn’t take a PhD in economics to understand what happens when listings – i.e. supply – expand while demand, both domestic and foreign (thanks again, Mr. President) – drops off.

end

CONSUMER SENTIMENT/USA

Consumer sentiment disappoints with the Democrats far more disappointed with their financial outlook than Republicans

(zerohedge)

UMich Sentiment Disappoints As Democrats Outlook Hits Lows

After the flash October sentiment survey extended September’s rebound from August’s slump, expectations were for the small positive to hold or improve further, but the final print was slightly disappointing – dropping from 96.0 to 95.5 (still up from 93.2 in September).

  • Expectations index rose to 84.2 vs. 83.4 last month.
  • Current economic conditions index rose to 113.2 vs. 108.5 last month.

Source: Bloomberg

As UMich notes, the focus of consumers has been on income and job growth, while largely ignoring other news.

The most spontaneous references were to the negative impact of tariffs, which fell to 27% in October from last month’s 36%; the impeachment inquiry totaled just 2% in October, less than the 5% who mentioned a negative impact from the GM strike. To be sure, the multiple sources of uncertainty will keep consumers focused on potential threats to their prevailing optimism, with the most critical being threats that could significantly diminish their job and income prospects.

Buying conditions for vehicles and large appliances bounced notably, not so much that of housing…

Source: Bloomberg

The middle- and lowest-income cohorts saw sentiment improve the most…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, the divide between Democrats and Republicans remains wide with those on the left the most unhappy since Trump was elected

Source: Bloomberg

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

It is about time.  Banks are now stuck with billions of leveraged loans they initiated and cannot sell.  Invesotrs are fleeing the credit markets

(zerohedge)

Banks Stuck With Billions In Risky Leveraged Loans As Investors Flee Credit Markets

Global banks are involuntarily stocking up on risky corporate loans as a result of investors beginning to cut risk in the credit markets, according to Bloomberg.

Underwriters that could once easily offload risk associated with corporate debt are finding that coming up with new suckers investors isn’t as easy as it once was. As a result, banks like Barclays and Deutsche have been stuck with $1.5 billion in leveraged loans that they’ve struggled to sell off in recent months.

It’s a small sum relative to the nearly $170 billion in leveraged loans outstanding in the U.S. and Europe, but it’s notable due to the “broad strength” of the credit markets of late. The strength in credit stands in contrast to late last year when a sharp selloff left the banks holding the bag on $3.6 billion in unsold debt.

While the recent stalled deals don’t pose a major threat to the junk bond market, an uptick could constrain underwriting and signal further risk aversion going forward.

 

Steven Abrahams, head of strategy at Amherst Pierpont Securities said: “The mix of loans coming to market right now is very difficult to absorb. It’s a very unusual story that leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations are showing stress, even though the rest of the market is pretty benign, if not bullish.”

Continued concerns about a global slowdown are prompting investors to avoid riskiest issuers.Chunks of deals still sitting on banks’ books include debt for OSG Billing Services and ACProducts: two deals that were underwritten before last year’s sell-off and have still been unable to find buyers. Barclays, who acted as sole underwriter for both deals, is still holding about half of each deal. Debt deals made for Apollo’s buyout of Shutterfly and HGGC’s take-private deal for Monotype Imaging Holdings failed to be fully sold to investors as demand for riskier credit waned. Additionally, a group of banks – also led by Barclays and Deutsche – were left holding hundreds of millions of dollars in debt from Advent International’s buyout of a unit of Evonik Industries in July.A Deutsche spokesman said: “The amounts in question are insignificant in the context of the wider market and insignificant to Deutsche Bank’s debt-financing businesses.”Banks have also struggled to sell a nearly $3 billion cross border debt deal for Bain Capital’s purchase of a majority stake of research firm Kantar. Underwriters were forced to add concessions on pricing and documentation to the loan and bond deal to entice investors. The deadline for the deal was extended twice. And banks may find it even more difficult to offload these loans in coming months. Worries about a global downturn have reduced demand for lower rated loans at risk of downgrades – especially from CLOs, which face limits as to the amount of the weakest tier CCC debt they can own.Jerry Cudzil, head of U.S. credit trading at TCW Group, called it “extreme bifurcation”. Often times when banks are stuck with unsold loans, they will work with PE sponsors to restructure the financing, generally after an injection of equity. If a solution can’t be found at that point, the bank is on the hook to provide the funds at the original terms.Cudzil concluded: “It is late cycle and there is growing risk of credit accidents. We kill so many loans in the early stages that we are not even going to look at a cabinet maker right now.”While it may be shocking to some investors, this news doesn’t come as much of a surprise to us.Remember, it was just days ago that we highlighted comments from Morgan Stanley’s Srikanth Sankaran, who wrote in a note that “beneath the veneer of relative spread resilience and muted realized defaults, the weak links in the leveraged credit markets are coming under pressure.”

One notable such fault line is spread decompression, which has been a dominant theme in both leveraged loans and HY, with the B-BB basis expanding by ~24bp in HY and ~56bp in loans from the January tights.

Another indication that the loan market is starting to crack: distressed tails in both asset classes are also back on the rise, and while energy remains the dominant contributor to the HY tail, Morgan Stanley finds more sector diversity in loans trading below 90 cash price.

But the biggest tell that investors are starting to sour on what one year ago was the most desired part of the capital structure, is that – as in other, more illiquid pockets of the market – “big” price/spread moves are happening more frequently, “even outside the stressed buckets”. And while the jump pattern is more symmetric in HY, pointing to continued demand for big movers, by contrast in loans, the big price moves exhibit a strong downside skew, particularly in the case of facilities that started the year at stressed levels.

Also worth noting is that large moves are also happening more frequently outside the tails: while the increase in credits trading at stressed levels is ominous, it presents only a partial picture of underlying price dynamics, according to MS. Even outside the tails, the bank sees a growing incidence of big spread/price moves in individual credits.

Morgan Stanley counts 1,476 individual HY bonds that have seen spreads gap wider by 50bp or more over a one-month window. However, there is also a strong rebound pattern in that instances of significant spread tightening are also high. As a result, the aggregate distribution of YTD spread changes does not show much evidence of a broad-based malaise within the HY bond market.

The one explanation for these repricings: investors are anticipating declining fundamentals in the form of ratings downgrades.

As MS notes, consistent with the price discontinuity patterns, net downgrades in leveraged loans have also accelerated in recent months – up 106% YoY and tracking the highest levels since the energy crisis.

If these trends hold true, banks like Barclays and Deutsche better get used to having those leveraged loans on their books…

end
PG and E restores power but fires in the LA area are burning out of control
(zerohedge)

“My House Could Be Burning Right Now”: LA Menaced By Wildfires Burning Across California

Wildfires burning across the state of California have charred nearly 30,000 acres. Once again, high, dry winds blowing across the state helped ignite the fires, even as PG&E sporadically cut power to different areas hoping to prevent its equipment from sparking another blaze.

But PG&E has restored power to approximately 93% of customers impacted by the “Public Safety” shutoffs that started Wednesday after approximately 178,000 customers across 18 counties were affected by the shutoffs. Power has been restored to 165,000 customers.

Less than 40 customers in Kern County are still out of power. The all-clear for Kern County is expected midday tomorrow.

“PG&E expects all customers to be restored Friday pending any damage to equipment that must first be repaired before safely restoring power,” the press release said.

PG&E said it had deployed more than 6,000 employees to conduct safety patrols, inspections, and power restoration operations.

As far as the fires go, they seem to be slightly more tame than the wildfires that burned through the state last year and the year prior. The largest of the group of nine, the Tick fire, is burning at 0% containment, said Los Angeles County Fire Department Chief Daryl Osby during a Thursday evening press conference. The fire is burning just north of LA.

“There are plenty of hotspots out in the incident,” Osby said during a news conference. “We’ll have firefighters out all night trying to work on those hotspots and trying to work on increasing our containment line.”

He also said that local, state, and federal authorities are working to put out the Tick fire, which has impacted 10,000 structures and damaged several more, with more than 500 firefighters on the ground. They are experiencing winds at 20 miles per hour, with some gusts reaching as high as 40 miles per hour.

One woman who spoke to the LA Times said the fires have never gotten this close to her home before.

Canyon Country resident Marcia Armijo, 60, left her office at the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department early Thursday for a doctor’s appointment. The staff there told her to evacuate — and fast.

“I rushed home and started gathering all the important papers,” she said.

She packed an overnight bag and got her cat, Maxwell, and her dog, Hope, ready to leave.

“The fires have gotten close, but never like this,” said Armijo, who has lived in Canyon Country for 20 years. “I have no idea if my house is burning down right now.”

Despite President Trump’s comments last year about refusing to offer federal funds to fight the wildfires in the state, California has secured money from FEMA to help fight the Tick Fire, according to Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Meanwhile, the Kincade Fire, which is burning northeast of Geyserville in Sonoma County, has now reached 16,000 acres and is only 5% contained, officials from Cal Fire said. Offering some unsettling information about the fire’s provenance, officials from the company said the fire started near a PG&E transmission tower in Sonoma.

CNN has a brief summary of the biggest fires currently burning in the state:

The Kincade Fire ignited Wednesday night in Sonoma County, and burned 16,000 acres by Thursday night. It is at 5% containment. 49 structures have been destroyed. It’s unclear how many of those lost were homes.

It was fueled in part by high winds that had already prompted California electric utilities to intentionally cut power to thousands of residents.

The Tick Fire, in Los Angeles County, has burned about 3,950 acres, and is also at 5% containment. 40,000 residents are under evacuation orders, and there are 10,000 structures under threat. At least six structures have been burned, but final figures are not yet known.

The Old Water Fire, in San Bernadino County, had burned 75 acres with 30% containment as of earlier this afternoon. There were several more flare ups during the day, but the county fire department said the threat to the national forest has been “mitigated.” All evacuation areas have reopened to residents with proper identification.

The Cabrillo Fire, south of Pescadero in San Mateo County, broke out earlier this evening. It has burned 95 acres and is 25% contained.

the fires are expected to burn through the weekend and well into next week, if not longer.

 end
More fun and games in California as P G and E crashes to an all time low as investors believe that it will be blamed for the latest California inferno in L.A.
(zerohedge)

PG&E Crashes To All Time Low Over Fears It Will Be Blamed For Latest California Inferno

Shares of California’s largest, insolvent utility, PG&E, plunged 26% to a new all time low on Friday…

… amid speculation that the company – which filed for bankruptcy at the start of the year as it was faced with soaring legal liabilities over its involvement in the most destructive California fire in history – would be held liable for the Kincade Fire which is burning in northern California, and has already affected 16,000 acres.

According to a note by Citi’s Praful Mehta, while it is still unclear if this week’s fire in Kincade was indeed caused by PG&E equipment, the prospect raises the risk of wiping out PG&E’s equity value, which would also undermine the recovery plan favored by PG&E and its shareholders, and make it more likely that a rival plan from bondholders will win approval, one which leaves the current equity a donut.

The Citi report comes one day after PG&E admitted that its transmission lines in the area of Kincade fire were not de-energized because forecast weather conditions, particularly wind speeds, did not trigger the Public Safety Power Shutoff protocol. In a statement, the company added that the wind speeds of concern for transmission lines are higher than those for distribution, adding that the transmission tower was inspected earlier this year as part of PG&E’s Wildfire Safety Inspection Program. Of course, none of that will matter if California finds that the Kincade fire was indeed the company’s fault.

Mehta echoed his bearish sentiment from earlier this month, when the analyst set a Street-low price target at $5 on PCG shares (they are trading at $5.30 after today’s drop), predicting there was a 75% probability the California power company’s stock would fall to zero. On Friday, he repeated his call, saying “shareholders are worried — and should be.”

Separately, Evercore ISI analyst Greg Gordon said that if the fire is linked to PG&E during the bankruptcy process, it would be whether the company met California Public Utilities Commission’s standards on whether the disaster was handled prudently. If the company were found to have acted imprudently in a $10 billion fire and were able to negotiate claims down to $6 billion, PG&E may still be on the hook for $4.3 billion, Gordon said.

“PCG has modest insurance and can access the state wildfire insurance fund (with limits), but this is a setback,” Gordon wrote. “A big fire could increase overall liabilities for shareholders and threaten the viability of their equity backstop.”

As Bloomberg notes, backers of the PG&E plan could terminate their financial commitment of over $14 billion if a destructive wildfire is linked to PG&E and its service territory before 2020. And with wildfires continuing to spread, participants wonder whether PG&E will be able to reach a bankruptcy settlement. Another bad fire season could push them into bankruptcy again.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Negisa Balluku said that a fire caused by PG&E equipment could also affect PG&E’s ability to abide by California’s wildfire liability law. Such a fire would “likely lead to claims with precedence over those from the 2017-18 California wildfires as well as over unsecured debt,” she said.

Meanwhile, in a double whammy for California, even as a part of the state is burning again, the worst may be yet to come for California residents, because whereas the bankrupt utility said it had restored power to about 165,000 customers in portions of 18 counties, or about 93% of those affected, the giant utility is preparing to cut the lights again across much of its territory this weekend in anticipation of the strongest wind storm in yearspotentially leaving 1.2 million customers without power, which reminds us of something we joked a few days ago: “Every time the wind blows California will become Venezuela”.

zerohedge@zerohedge

PG&E: 1.2 MILLION POWER CUSTOMERS IN FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA

Every time the wind blows California will become Venezuela

It turns out it wasn’t a joke.

END

CA Gov Newsom Declares State Of Emergency Over Wildfires, Thanks Trump For Aid

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced yesterday that California has secured a FEMA grant to help in the Kincade Fire response.

The grant will help “ensure the availability of resources” and “also enables local, state, and tribal agencies to recover eligible costs.”

We are grateful for the swift approval of our request to ensure all resources are available to support the heroic work of our firefighters and first responders working to contain this fire and keep local communities safe,” said Governor Newsom.

The FEMA grant will assist local, state, and tribal agencies responding to the fire to apply for 75% reimbursement of their eligible fire suppression costs.

Governor Newsom tweeted his thanks to President Donald Trump on Friday morning.

Gavin Newsom

@GavinNewsom

Thank you, @realDonaldTrump. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2019/10/24/california-secures-federal-assistance-to-support-kincade-fire-response/ 

California Secures Federal Assistance to Support Kincade Fire Response

SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom today announced that the state has secured a Fire Management Assistance Grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to help ensure the availability of…

gov.ca.gov

Additionally, Newsom issued another scathing rebuke of the mass blackouts roiling California, telling the state’s three major investor-owned electric utilities that they have not worked well enough with the government as they cut power to too many people for too long.

“For close to a year now, we’ve been meeting on a consistent basis every damn week with these guys laying out protocols and they’re not meeting those protocols. I don’t think they get it,” he said.

“They’d better step things up. This is simply unacceptable.”

And now, Newsom has declared state of emergency for the counties of Sonoma and Los Angeles due to the Kincade and Tick fires.

NBC Bay Area reports that the Kincade Fire in northern Sonoma County has scorched 21,900 acres, destroyed 49 structures, including 21 homes, and triggered evacuation orders for about 2,000 people in and around Geyersville, a community located about 70 miles north of San Francisco.

The blaze is 5% contained. No injuries have been reported.

end
the official USA deficit comes in just under one trillion dollars at $984 as a big 84 billion surplus in September.
However you must add the huge deficit of student loans and auto loans to the official deficit.  The reason that these two are not included because there is a corresponding asset to this..they owe the money to Uncle Sam but it is never paid.
(zerohedge)

US Budget Deficit Hits $984 Billion In Fiscal 2019, Up $205 Billion In One Year

With the cumulative budget deficit for the first 11 months of fiscal 2019 already hitting $1.067 trillion as of August 31, the only question on deficit watchers’ minds was whether after the final month in the fiscal year, which ends on Sept 30, the US deficit would be greater or less than $1 trillion.

At 2pm today we got the answer, when the US Treasury reported that thanks to a $82.8 billion surplus in September, the full year deficit for fiscal 2019 was shy of $1 trillion, but just barely, printing at $984.4 billion, a whopping $205 billion, or 26.4% increase, to the $779 billion deficit hit in 2018.

This was $24 billion more than the CBO’s own forecast in August, which predicted a 2019 deficit of $960BN.

 

As shown below, the $83 billion monthly surplus was thanks to $374 billion in receipts, offsetting $291 billion in outlays. The biggest source of income were income taxes ($183BN), social security and retirement ($104BN), and corporate income taxes ($60BN), while the biggest outlays were Social Security ($88BN), Defense spending ($55BN), healthcare ($53BN), and Medicare ($26BN).

That said, the fact that the US failed to hit a $1 trillion deficit in 2019 merely means that the D-Day has been postponed for one year, as most analyst forecasts and government budgets anticipate will happen in 2020.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Huge story

Bill Barr and Durham probe is now a criminal investigation

two commentaries

Hoft and zerohedge)

BREAKING… AG Bill Barr Announces Durham Probe is Now a CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION — Subpoenas Coming! Deep State in Panic!

Jim Hoft by Jim Hoft October 24, 2019 1039 Comments

Sean Hannity opened his show on Thursday tonight with breaking news —  Attorney General Bill Barr says Prosecutor John Durham’s investigation is now a CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION!

** The Change in Status Gives Investigators Ability to Subpoena Witnesses, Use Grand Jury

** NYT Reports that DOJ Durham probe has “shifted” from an administrative review of the Russia investigation “to a criminal inquiry.”

More from The New York Times, via Conservative Treehouse:

For more than two years, President Trump has repeatedly attacked the Russia investigation, portraying it as a hoax and illegal even months after the special counsel closed it. Now, Mr. Trump’s own Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into how it all began.

Justice Department officials have shifted an administrative review of the Russia investigation closely overseen by Attorney General William P. Barr to a criminal inquiry, according to two people familiar with the matter. The move gives the prosecutor running it, John H. Durham, the power to subpoena for witness testimony and documents, to impanel a grand jury and to file criminal charges.

…] The move also creates an unusual situation in which the Justice Department is conducting a criminal investigation into itself.

Mr. Barr’s reliance on Mr. Durham, a widely respected and veteran prosecutor who has investigated C.I.A. torture and broken up Mafia rings, could help insulate the attorney general from accusations that he is doing the president’s bidding and putting politics above justice.

It was not clear what potential crime Mr. Durham is investigating, nor when the criminal investigation was prompted. A Justice Department spokeswoman declined to comment.

[…] Federal investigators need only a “reasonable indication” that a crime has been committed to open an investigation, a much lower standard than the probable cause required to obtain search warrants. However, “there must be an objective, factual basis for initiating the investigation; a mere hunch is insufficient,” according to Justice Department guidelines.

end

The DOJ’s Russiagate Probe Just Turned Into A Criminal Investigation

What began as an administrative review by the Justice Department into the origins of Russiagate has “shifted” to a criminal inquiry, according to the New York Times, citing two people familiar with the matter.

The move will allow prosecutor John H Durham the power to subpoena documents and witnesses, to impanel a grand jury, and to file criminal chargesDurham’s progress has been closely monitored by Attorney General William Barr, who appointed the veteran investigator in May, tasking him with looking into FBI and CIA intelligence gathering operations surrounding the 2016 US election.

 

US Attorney John Durham

As the Daily Callers Chuck Ross notes, Barr said on April 10 that he believed “spying” had taken place against the Trump campaign, and that he doesn’t buy former FBI officials’ version of how the collusion investigation began.

Little is known about Durham’s activities so far in the investigation. The Times report said it is unclear when the investigation took on a criminal element, or what specific crime Durham is investigating.

Durham accompanied Barr to Italy late in September as part of an inquiry into U.S. intelligence agents’ activities there during the 2016 campaign. They also inquired about Joseph Mifsud, a mysterious Maltese professor who established contact with Trump aide George Papadopoulos in 2016. –Daily Caller

Just over three weeks ago, the Times also reported that President Trump asked the Australian Prime Minister to help Barr uncover the origins of “Russiagate,” a move which Justice Department officials said “would be neither illegal nor untoward for Trump to ask.”

And according to NBC NewsDurham has set his sights on former CIA Director John Brennan and former national intelligence director James Clapper.

Durham’s investigation has been running parallel to a probe by Justice Department Inspector General (and registered Democrat) Michael Horowitz, who told Congress on Thursday that he expects his report to be “lengthy,” but able to be made mostly available to the public.

The Durham probe is similar to a Justice Department inspector general’s investigation into the FBI’s surveillance of Trump campaign adviser Carter Page. Michael Horowitz, the inspector general, told Congress on Thursday that the report of that investigation is “lengthy” and that he anticipates most of it will be made public.

Horowitz has been investigating whether the FBI misled the foreign surveillance court in spy applications against Page. Investigators relied heavily on the Steele dossier in the applications, though information in that document was largely unverified. Unlike Durham, Horowitz has not had subpoena power, and cannot use a grand jury as part of his investigation. –Daily Caller

And of course, with Durham’s administrative review turning into a criminal probe, the Times has already given away the predictable response from the left; Barr is investigating the Obama intelligence community to help Trump win in 2020. Nothing to see here folks, right?

end

you will enjoy this one!

(Kunstler/Kunstler.com)

Beware The Sound Of Shoes Dropping In The Night

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

It was interesting to watch the Cable News divas go incandescent under the glare of their own gaslight late yesterday when they received the unpleasant news that the Barr & Durham “review” of RussiaGate had been officially upgraded to a “criminal investigation.”

Rachel Maddow’s trademark pouty-face got a workout as she strained to imagine “…what the thing is that Durham might be looking into.” Yes, that’s a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, all right… with a sputtering fuse sticking out of it. Welcome to the Wile E. Coyote Lookalike Club, Rache. You’ll have a lot of competition when the Sunday morning news-chat shows rev up.

Minutes later, the answer dawned on her:

“It [the thing] follows the wildest conspiracy theories from Fox News!”

You’d think that someone who invested two-plus years of her life in the Mueller report, which blew up in her pouty-face last spring, might have felt a twinge of journalistic curiosity as to the sum-and-substance of the thing. But no, she just hauled on-screen RussiaGate intriguer David Laufman, a former DOJ lawyer who ran the agency’s CounterIntel and Export Control desk during the RussiaGate years, and also helped oversee the botched Hillary Clinton private email server probe.

“They have this theory,” Rachel said, “that maybe Russia didn’t interfere in the election….”

“It’s preposterous,” said Laufman, all lawyered up and ready to draw a number and take a seat for his own grand jury testimony.

Over in the locked ward of CNN, Andy Cooper and Jeff Toobin attempted to digest the criminal investigation news as if someone had ordered in a platter of shit sandwiches for the green room just before air-time. Toobin pretended to not know exactly who the mysterious Joseph Misfud was, and struggled to even pronounce his name: “…Mifsood? Misfood…? You mean the Italian professor?” No Jeff, the guy employed by several “friendly” foreign intelligence agencies, and the CIA, to sandbag Trump campaign advisor George Papadopoulos, and failed. I guess when you’re at the beating heart of TV news, you don’t have to actually follow any of the stories reported outside your locked ward, and maybe entertain a few angles outside your purview, i.e. your range of thought and experience.

Next Andy hauled onscreen former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper (now a paid CNN “contributor”) to finesse a distinction between the “overall investigation of the Russian interference” or “the counterintelligence investigation that was launched by the FBI.” Consider that Mr. Clapper was right in the middle between the CIA and the FBI. Since he is known to be a friend of Mr. Comey’s and a not-friend of Mr. Brennan’s one can easily see which way Mr. Clapper is tilting. One can also see the circular firing squad that this is a setup for. And, of course, Mr. Clapper himself will be a subject in Mr. Durham’s criminal case proceedings. I predict October will be the last month that Mr. Clapper draws a CNN paycheck — as he hunkers down with his attorneys awaiting the subpoena with his name on it.

The New York Times story on this turn of events Friday morning is a lame attempt to rescue former FBI Director Jim Comey by pinning the blame for RussiaGate on the CIA, shoving CIA John Brennan under the bus. The Times report says: “Mr. Durham has also asked whether C.I.A. officials might have somehow tricked the F.B.I. into opening the Russia investigation.” There’s the next narrative for you. Expect to hear this incessantly well into 2020.

I wonder if there is any way to hold the errand boys-and-girls in the news media accountable for their roles as handmaidens in what will be eventually known as a seditious coup to overthrow a president. We do enjoy freedom of the press in this land, but I can see how these birds merit charges as unindicted co-conspirators in the affair. One wonders if the various boards of directors of the newspaper and cable news outfits might seek to salvage their self-respect by firing the executives who allowed it happen. If anything might be salutary in the outcome of this hot mess, it would be a return to respectability of the news media.

As for impeachment, ringmaster Rep. Adam Schiff is surely steaming straight into his own historic Joe McCarthy moment when somebody of incontestable standing denounces him as a fraud and a scoundrel… and the mysterious workings of nonlinear behavior tips the political mob past a criticality threshold, shifting the weight of consensus out of darkness and madness. It has happened before in history. Two centuries before Joe McCarthy, the French national assembly suddenly turned on the Jacobins Robespierre and St. Just after their orgy of beheading 17,000 enemies. The two were quickly dispatched themselves to the awe of their beloved guillotine and the Jacobin faction was not heard of again —until recently in America, where it first infected the Universities and then sickened the polity at large almost unto death.

 

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Japan factory activity shrinks at quickest pace since 2016 in October: flash PMI

The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI in October contracted at the quickest pace since June 2016, slipping to 48.5 on a seasonally adjusted basis from a final 48.9 in the previous month…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-pmi/japan-factory-activity-shrinks-at-quickest-pace-since-2016-in-october-flash-pmi-idUSKBN1X301K

The  NYT’s @amyfiscus: The Justice Department review of the Russia investigation is now a full-fledged criminal inquiry  [Cell phones, especially burner phones, are going berserk in DC.]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/us/politics/john-durham-criminal-investigation.html

 

Michael Horowitz: Finalizing of FISA probe report ‘nearing completion’ https://fxn.ws/2N9m6yB

 

The source that told us a few weeks ago that Horowitz’s report would be delayed by Durham’s redactions, (when the media said it was imminent) now says the report will appear next Friday, November 1.

 

John Solomon @jsolomonReports: Clinton campaign given defensive briefing about foreign threat, something Trump never got on Russia   https://t.co/5ib35rbm3Z

 

GOP reveals new Strzok texts concerning ‘crescendo of leaks,’ demands watchdog investigate

Strzok texted bureau colleague Lisa Page on Dec. 15, 2016: “Think our sisters have begun leaking like mad. Scorned and worried and political, they’re kicking in to overdrive.” “What are they worried about, and what are they kicking into ‘overdrive?’ Johnson and Grassley wrote. “Who are the ‘sisters,’ and what does it mean to say that the ‘sisters have [been] leaking like mad’?”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-intelligence-community-watchdog-leaks-silence-chuck-grassley

 

Some political stories yesterday resembled episodes of The Twilight Zone or Ripley’s Believe It or Not.

 

Shocking photos of Congresswoman Katie Hill are revealed as she’s seen NAKED showing off Nazi-era tattoo while smoking a bong, kissing her female staffer and posing nude on ‘wife sharing’ sites [Can you imagine the US MSM coverage is she were a Republican?] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7609835/Katie-Hill-seen-showing-Nazi-era-tattoo-smoking-BONG-NAKED.html

 

@JackPosobiec: Hillary Clinton says flashing videos that appear and disappear on the dark web caused her to lose in 2016. The “flashing dark web video” Hillary Clinton is referring to wasn’t from 2016, it was actually a fringe video from mid-2018 that was going around on YouTube.  Sundar Pichai was even asked about it during one of the Google hearings last year  https://t.co/BRRmd5QInm

 

@PolishPatriotTM: Flashback (2016): President Petro Poroshenko awards Orders of Ukraine to US Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham https://t.co/PJjsa7G1Zk

 

Joe Biden said: “China’s not our problem if we invest and remember who we are.

 

NBC: Hunter Biden’s legal work in Romania raises new questions about his overseas dealings

Hunter Biden provided legal advice to a Romanian charged with real estate fraud, at a time when his father was pushing corruption reforms in the country… [2 weeks ago Rudy said Romania would be a problem for the Bidens.]   https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1071031

 

@HanifJazayeri: Update on Iran’s terror ring busted by Albania’s police: [Iran’s] IRGC Qods Force tried to bomb MEK’s event while @RudyGiuliani & EU lawmakers were there.

Albania’s Police Chief Reveals Iranian Regime Terror Ring Targeting PMOI/MEK

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/ncri-statements/terrorism-fundamentalism/26792-albania-s-police-chief-reveals-iranian-regime-terror-ring-targeting-pmoi-mek

 

Democrat “Star” Witness sat on Board of Ukrainian NGO with deep ties to George Soros

William Taylor spent several years on the board of a Ukrainian NGO called EEF… https://uncoverdc.com/2019/10/24/democrat-star-witness-sat-on-board-of-ukranian-ngo-with-deep-ties-to-george-soros/

Well that is all for today

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog

FISA Abuse Report Coming Soon, MSM Propaganda Psyop, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On October 25, 2019

DOJ Inspector General (IG) Michael Horowitz sent a letter to Congress telling them the long awaited IG report he’s been working on is nearing completion. Looks like it could be released in November with what he calls “few redactions.” Some are reporting the report is extensive and covers much more than fraud on the FISA court with a phony dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton and the DNC to get warrants to spy on everything Trump.

The MSM is running a full-fledged psyop on “we the people” and throwing what little journalism they provide out the window in an effort to team up with the Deep State and the Democrats to remove President Trump from office with made up phone charges, polls and hit pieces from anonymous sources.

The Federal Reserve seems to be in panic mode supplying cash to banks to “keep the banking system stable.” The Fed pumped out $134 billion in one day this week. Why? What is wrong in what is supposed to be a great economy?

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

I will see you Monday night.

 

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