NOV 4/FAILED RAID ATTEMPT AS GOLD DOWN ONLY 75 CENTS TO $1508.65/SILVER UP ONE CENT TO $18.06//GOLD CLIMBS TO $1510 IN ACCESS MARKET TRADING//PROTESTERS FIREBOMB MAINLAND CHINA’S HUGE XINHUA NEWS AGENCY BUILDING//MORE PROTESTS IN HONG KONG OVER THE WEEKEND//RIOTING IN IRAQ OVER THE INCURSION OF IRAN//CHRIS POWELL’S REMARKS AT THE NEW ORLEANS CONFERENCE OUTLINING THE MANIPULATION IN GOLD/SILVER//A FEW SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1508.65 DOWN $0.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:18.06 UP 1 CENT

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold : $1510.10

 

silver:  $18.06

We just finished having in Canada an election, a federal election:
a sign which depicts what happened

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  0/144

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,508.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/01/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 11/05/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
152 C DORMAN TRADING 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 45
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 120 90
800 C MAREX SPEC 22 6
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 144 144
MONTH TO DATE: 924

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 144 NOTICE(S) FOR 14,400 OZ (0.4479 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  924 NOTICES FOR 92400 OZ  (2.874 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR NOV

 

 

16 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 80,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 389 for 1,945,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9242 UP 51 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9433 up 237

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 2846 CONTRACTS FROM 224,936 UP TO 227,782 DESPITE THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR NOV 0,; DEC  687 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  687 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 687 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 687 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.435 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.665     MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN OCT

ON THURSDAY,WE HAD A STRONG ADVANCE  WHICH FORCED OUR THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR INTO ACTION FRIDAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE, THEY TRIED TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL  AS THEY AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR MILDLY SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE ( IT FELL 3 CENTS ). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS HOWEVER WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG 3533 CONTRACTS. OR 17.76 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV:

2886 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 2866 CONTRACTS) OR 14.43 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1443 CONTRACTS OR 7.215 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  14.43 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.06% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1769.32   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE                                                          146.14 MILLION OZ

IN OCT

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2846, WITH THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 687 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 3533 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 687 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2856  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.05 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.139 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 163% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 16 NOTICE(S) FOR 80,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 46 CONTRACTS, TO 681,159 ACCOMPANYING THE  $2.90 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// / AND CLOSE TO THE  NEW RECORD  SET LAST WEEK

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 8063 CONTRACTS:

NOV 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  8063 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 681,159,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8017 CONTRACTS: 46 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 8063 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8017 CONTRACTS OR 801,700 OZ OR 24.93 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $2.90 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 24.93 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE A LITTLE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $2.90) .THEY WERE TOTALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS BOTH EXCHANGES’ OPEN INTEREST ROSE APPRECIABLY.

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV: 18,986 CONTRACTS OR 1,898,600 oz OR 59.05 TONNES (2 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9493 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 59.05 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 59.05/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.663% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5150.63  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 46 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($2.90)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8063 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8063 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 8017 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8063 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 46 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 24.93 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.90 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  144 notice(s) filed upon for 14,400 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN 0.75 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

A WITHDRAWAL OF: .88 TONNES

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67  TONNES

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 1 CENTS TODAY: 

 

A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2846 CONTRACTS from 224,936 UP TO 227,782 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  687:  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 687 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2846  CONTRACTS TO THE 687 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3,533 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17.66MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 687 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.29 POINTS OR 0.58%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 446.54 POINTS OR 1.65%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 76.27 POINTS OR 0.33%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0289 /Oil UP TO 56.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.52 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0289 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0306 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)Saturday

Hong Kong/China

Protesters firebomb the big Xinhua  (Mainland China’s)news agency

(zerohedge)

ii)MONDAY MORNING

China/Usa
Ross meets with top Chinese officials as mid levels talks spark optimism
(zerohedge)

iii)China/USA TAIWAN

And they are close to signing part one of the trade deal despite the following;

(zerohedge)

iv)Michael Every discusses 4 reasons why China will not do a trade deal with the USA

(zerohedge)

v)Our resident expert on Chinese affairs Gordon Chang states that China is incompatible with the uSA and the West

a must read..

Gordon Chang/Sara Carter)

vi)CHINA/USA

I guess this is to be expected from the Chinese:  Beijing is reportedly planning to ambush the USA with a last minute demand to drop tariffs.
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Two commentaries on our resident experts on Brexit

(Tom Luongo/ and Mish Shedlock)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

I)Turkey/USA/Lebanon

Trump freezes military aid to Turkey after their incursion into Syria

(zerohedge)

II)Turkey/USA Syria

Not good: a USA convoy was attacked by Turkish backed militants in Syria

(zerohedge)

III)Iran/IRAQ

There have been protests in Iraq for the past week. The citizens want the ousting of Prime Minister Adbul Mahdi.  Iran sent in the leader of the Revolutionary Guard, Soleimani trying to quell the rioting.
Well it seems that the protesters were very upset at seeing Iranian personnel on their soil and so on Sunday, Iraqi citizens torched the Irtanian consulate over foreign interference.
(zerohedge)

IV UKRAINE

Corruption galore in the Ukraine: now Ukraine is firing the prosecutor who discussed the Bidens with Giuliani
(Reuters)

6.Global Issues

Two commentaries indicating global growth is rapidly declining:

i. plunge in global shipping container rates

ii) freight railroad traffic plummets 8% in the USA in Oct

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Chris Powell’s remarks at the New Orleans conference: a complete rundown of the gold/silver manipulation

(Chris Powell)

ii)Bill Murphy of GATA outlines how the gold cartel is finally in trouble

(zerohedge)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

ZEROHEDGE

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Factory orders slump in Sept

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

A i)Total debt of the USA surpasses $23 trillion. If one is to take a 12 month differential we witness a change of 1.3 trillion dollars which is the true deficit. The difference is due to student and auto loans which is also an asset on the books so it is not included as a deficit entry.

(zerohedge)

A ii)The Fed has already added a huge permanent 250 billion dollars to its balance sheet in repo money.It looks like it will easily surpass its record of 4.5 trillion on its balance sheet.

(zerohedge)

B)Malaysia rejects Goldman’s offer of 2 billion dollars in the lMDB scandal

(zerohedge)

C)  1.Trump is furious with California Governor Newsome:  He has now threatened to remove federal support as California fires rage on.

(zerohedge)

C  2) Because of the damaging fires, hedge funds who invested in PG and E and Edison are losing big time(zerohedge)

D)The next crisis to hit the USA: bankruptcies in the farming community. Bankruptcies have soared by 24% this year.

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Meet Eric Ciaramella, our initial whistleblower who started the Ukraine Witch hunt. He may also be a Brennan spy who’s job it is to bring down Trump.  Treason?

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 46 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 681,159 (AND CLOSE TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST WEEK) DESPITE THE LOSS OF $2.90 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)//

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8063 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR NOV; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 8063   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8063 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 8017 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8063 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A TINY SIZED 46 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT FELL BY $2.90. JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TWO TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  8017 CONTRACTS OR 801700 OZ OR 24.93 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of NOVEMBER.  This month is generally a very poor month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to DECEMBER. Today we have 186 contracts  standing for a LOSS of 232 contracts.   We had 379 notices filed yesterday so we surprisingly gained a strong 147 contracts or an additional 14,700 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of November.

 

The next active delivery month after November is December.  Here this big December contract month saw its oi FALL by 1958 contracts UP to 499,2337.  JANUARY saw A GAIN of 3 contracts to stand at 4.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 144 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  14400 OZ. (0.4479 TONNES)

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 2846 CONTRACTS FROM 224,936 UP TO 227,782 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.  HERE WE HAVE 16 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 60 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 71 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR 55,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER NOV WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF DECEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 852 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 160,640.  JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 3 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 586.

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 16 notice(s) filed for 80,000, OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 275,907  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  415,821  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 4/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
144 notice(s)
 14400 OZ
(0.4479 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
42 contracts
(4200 oz)
0.1306 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
924 notices
92400 OZ
2.874 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ Today  zero amount  arrived

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

We had 0 adjustment

 

 

FOR THE NOV 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 144 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (924 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV (186 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (144 x 100 oz per contract) equals 96,600 OZ OR 3.004 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (924 x 100 oz)  + (186)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today 144 x (100 oz )which equals 96,600 oz standing OR 3.004 TONNES in this  active delivery month of ONOV

We gained a strong 147 contracts OR 14700 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical on this side of the pond. There is no doubt that these guys need to put out fires springing up everywhere!!

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 4 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..     OCT…..   37.99 TONNES

AND NOW NOV……                                                                3.004 tonnes

 

IN THE PAST 3 DAYS NO GOLD ENTERED OR WAS WITHDRAWN FROM REGISTERED COMEX GOLD

ON FRIDAY A PHONY 96,453.000 OZ WAS ADDED BY INT.DELAWARE (3,000 KILOBARS)

WE HAD ANOTHER  3,000 KILOBAR ENTRY ON THURSDAY INTO THE CUSTOMER ACCOUNT

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 3 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.60155 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE FOUR DELIVERY MONTHS: 73.5995

TONNES- 2.60155 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 70.9339 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.773 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,133.586 oz or  35.773 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,380.855.869 oz 260.69 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 101 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
NOV 4 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 NIL oz

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
16
CONTRACT(S)
(80,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  389 contracts

1,945,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   NIL  OZ  JPMorgan again resumes deposits after a one day holiday.  This is the 3rd day in a row for a deposit//Prior to that they had 6 straight deposits. In essence they have received as deposits on 9 out of the last 10 days.

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.11% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/314.96 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  NIL  oz

 

we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

total withdrawals; NIL  oz

We had 0 adjustments:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  78.54 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.933 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2019. contract month is represented by 16 contract(s) FOR 80,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 389 x 5,000 oz = 1,945,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (16) and the number of notices served upon today 16 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2019 contract month: 389 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (16)- number of notices served upon today (16) x 5000 oz equals 1,945,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month. 

WE GAINED 11 contracts or an additional 55,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 16 notice(s) filed for 80,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  76,904 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 105,182 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 105,182 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 590 million  OZ 84.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.53% ((NOV4/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.33% to NAV (NOV 4/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.53%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.21 TRADING 14.74///DISCOUNT 3.12

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

OCT 31/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT.30 WITH GOLD UP 5.50 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,55 TONNES

OCT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 23/2016′ WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $0.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE : A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.45 TONNES//GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

 

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NOV 4/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 914.67 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 696 TRADING DAYS: 34.98 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 596 TRADING DAYS: A NET 132.16 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :  A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES./INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

OCT 31//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

OCT 30.//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

OCT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 400,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 909,000 OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.925 MILLION

OCT 25/2019: WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 24/2019: WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.963 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.797 MILLION OZ//

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION O

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4:

 

 

Inventory 376.368 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.92/ and libor 6 month duration 1.90

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.86%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.93

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.07

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Chris Powell’s remarks at the New Orleans conference: a complete rundown of the gold/silver manipulation

(Chris Powell)

Chris Powell: Gold market manipulation update, November 2019

 Section: 

Illustrations for these remarks are posted here:

http://gata.org/files/NOIC-2019-Slides-11-01-2019.pdf

* * *

Remarks by Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday, November 1, 2019

Since we gathered here a year ago the gold and silver markets feel much stronger.

The central bank-instigated smashdowns that used to depress prices for weeks or even months are failing to keep prices down for more than a few days.

ILLUSTRATION: New York Commodities Exchange building

The gold futures market of the New York Commodities Exchange is operating very differently. Most contracts seeking delivery are now being converted through a rarely used mechanism called “exchange for physicals” whereby they are settled somewhere off the exchange, apparently in London. Until recently the “exchange for physicals” mechanism was said to be used only in emergencies. Now it seems that everything is an emergency. The implication here is that there is little or no gold available immediately in Comex vaults. Whatever it means, there is a huge change here.

… 

The “exchanges for physicals” seem to be rolled over in London every two weeks to escape ordinary reporting requirements. This implies that the sellers are trying to hide something. Of course that the powers in the gold market are trying to hide things is not new, but that they are using new mechanisms of concealment suggests that they are under greater strain.

ILLUSTRATION: European Central Bank announcement

Of course central banks, if you believe their announcements, have turned into big net buyers of gold in the last couple of years and have let the European Central Bank’s longstanding regulatory framework for gold sales expire. That is, central banks are not selling much if any gold anymore, and sales and leases of central bank gold long have provided a big part of supply.

ILLUSTRATION: Bank for International Settlements

The Bank for International Settlements is the major broker for central bank gold trades and for decades has been heavily involved with trading, leasing, and swapping gold and trading its derivatives, though you can discover this only by looking closely at the footnotes in the bank’s monthly reports. But the bank’s recent monthly reports, which are monitored and publicly construed only by GATA consultant Robert Lambourne, show a sharp decline in its gold trading.

ILLUSTRATION: Negative interest rates chart

Many central banks and President Trump himself are clamoring to devalue their currencies. Many European government and private-sector bonds are carrying negative interest rates, which suggests that the world financial system has gone crazy. Negative interest rates essentially proclaim that government-issued money is hardly worth anything anymore, except for paying taxes – that money is free.

ILLUSTRATION: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Suggesting that some disaster is brewing in the world financial system, in the last few weeks the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has announced plans to create $700 billion or more and distribute it to investment banks for supporting the stock, bond, and derivatives markets. The New York Fed has acknowledged receipt of GATA’s freedom-of-information request for an accounting of the recipients of this money but has failed to provide an answer.

But at least one sovereign power, probably the United States, still has been trying to contain the gold price, while the strength in the gold and silver markets suggests that at least one sovereign power simultaneously has been acquiring whatever physical gold and silver are available, especially in London.

ILLUSTRATION: Swiss gold flow to London

Swiss gold export data recently showed a reversal of the normal flow of gold out of London to Swiss refineries and onward to Asia. Instead gold lately has been flowing back to London as offtake there has increased greatly.

Such developments may be expected as the United States lately has been weaponizing the dollar in foreign affairs and imposing economic sanctions on any country that crosses U.S. policy. Lately there have been serious defections from the dollar system, and the defectors may have nowhere to go except to gold. But as much as central banks and President Trump want to devalue, they may want to devalue only against each other, not against gold, since — if devaluing against gold is done gradually rather than suddenly, as in an international currency revaluation — devaluation risks prompting a flight out of currencies, bonds, and equities and into the monetary metals.

That is, devaluing against gold gradually rather than suddenly risks a comprehensive market crash. But devaluing against gold suddenly makes it too late for investors to switch positions.

ILLUSTRATION: JPMorgan metals desk called criminal organization

Indictments, convictions, and fines against investment banks and their traders for manipulating the monetary metals futures markets are becoming almost too numerous to track. The U.S. Justice Department has obtained confessions and convictions from two former monetary metals traders at JPMorganChase and has indicted three more, including the former head of the bank’s metals desk. The Justice Department has even called the JPMorgan metals desk a criminal organization and alleges that Morgan inherited its “spoofing” tactics in the metals markets from its takeover of Bear Stearns, as silver market rigging critic Ted Butler long mainstained. That is, the Justice Department alleges that manipulation of the monetary metals futures markets has been going on for many years.

Other banks that recently have been incriminated or have confessed include Morgan Stanley, Mitsubishi, Merrill Lynch, and of course Deutsche Bank.

Big as these investment banks are, they often act as brokers for governments, and GATA is more interested in exposing what governments are doing in the markets, particularly the monetary metals markets.

In this respect three simple documents remain dispositive of the monetary metals market rigging issue — and, indeed, dispositive of the issue of the rigging of all markets.

ILLUSTRATION: CME Group Central Bank Incentive Program

The first document describes the “Central Bank Incentive Program” maintained by CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States:

http://gata.org/node/18925

That is, the futures exchange operator offers volume trading discounts to governments and central banks for their surreptitious trading in all major futures markets in the United States – not just the gold and silver futures markets but ALL major futures markets.

As far as GATA can determine, no mainstream financial news organization has ever reported that governments and central banks are surreptitiously trading U.S. futures markets and getting trading discounts for doing so, though GATA has alerted many news organizations about this.

This document is posted at the CME Group’s internet site and is referenced in the CME Group’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This document is not mere “conspiracy theory.” It is conspiracy fact. CME Group conspires with governments and central banks to assist their secret futures trading.

ILLUSTRATION: Mooney letter to Treasury and Fed

The second document is the letter sent in July 2018 to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell by U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, Republican of West Virginia, asking them to identify which markets the U.S. government is trading in, to explain U.S. government records that suggest secret transactions in gold, and to explain U.S. government policy toward gold generally:

http://www.gata.org/node/18407

Neither the Fed nor the Treasury have replied to Representative Mooney here.

ILLUSTRATION: Mooney letter to CFTC

The third document is the letter sent by Representative Mooney in February this year to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asking whether the commission has enforcement jurisdiction over manipulative trading by the U.S. government or brokers acting for the government, or whether such manipulative trading by the government or its brokers is authorized by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which established the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund:

http://www.gata.org/node/18832

The CFTC also has failed to reply to Representative Mooney here.

Mooney’s letters to the Treasury, Fed, and CFTC repeat questions GATA long has put to those agencies without getting a response.

Since the Treasury, Fed, and CFTC refuse to answer the questions of a member of Congress about whether the U.S. government is surreptitiously manipulating markets, I think you can guess where the truth lies – that is, you can guess where the truth lies if you’re not a mainstream financial news organization or a market analyst who would like to continue being quoted by mainstream financial news organizations.

With negative interest rates, near infinite creation of government money, and greatly increased offtake of gold and silver in the physical markets, today’s circumstances might seem hugely favorable to the monetary metals. Since there is now division among central banks in regard to gold, with many central banks acquiring it instead of selling or leasing it to suppress its price, today’s circumstances may resemble those of the last months of the London Gold Pool in late 1967 and early 1968.

Back then the gold that major central banks were prepared to lose from their reserves in an effort to support their own currencies and particularly the U.S. dollar, the world reserve currency, ran out, and the United States, having lost two-thirds of its gold reserves in maintaining the pool, had to ask the British government to close the pool abruptly. Whereupon the gold price began rising substantially until a new mechanism of price suppression was created in 1974 – the gold futures market.

ILLUSTRATION: Wikileaks cable

Lest you have any doubt about the price-suppressive purpose of modern futures markets, please read the cable sent from the deputy chief of staff of the U.S. embassy in London to the State Department in Washington in December 1974. The cable reported that London bullion dealers expected that the imminent creation of a gold futures market in the United States would allow bullion banks to inject so much volatility into the market as to scare ordinary investors away from gold:

http://www.gata.org/node/17081

ILLUSTRATION: Coindesk story

Little has changed since then about the government-instigated objective of futures markets. A few days ago Christopher Giancarlo, the former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC chairman to whom Representative Mooney wrote in February asking if the commission has jurisdiction over market manipulation by U.S. government agencies or brokers, made a sensational revelation. Giancarlo admitted that the U.S. government facilitated creation of a futures market in bitcoin two years ago precisely to knock down the cryptocurrency’s price. That was when bitcoin was starting to compete with the dollar and other financial assets:

http://www.gata.org/node/19544

ILLUSTRATION: Netherlands Central Bank

Yes, the age of infinite money would seem very promising for the monetary metals. The other day even the central bank of the Netherlands called gold “the perfect piggy bank” and the basis for rebuilding a financial system:

http://www.gata.org/node/19523

But those who would invest in the monetary metals and their miners should remember something not as encouraging.

ILLUSTRATION: Text excerpt

That is, the success of a system of infinite money requires infinite gold, silver, and commodity price suppression to help conceal currency devaluation and keep people within the system.

For decades we have been operating under the principles of Modern Monetary Theory. There is nothing remarkable about MMT. It is more like a truism than a mere theory. Yes, governments can create and dispense infinite amounts of money that is not directly convertible into gold or some other commodity, restrained only by evidence of currency debasement. That’s why commodity price suppression in the futures markets is the prerequisite of MMT.

Market-rigging governments and central banks are not going to give up easily, and their power to create infinite money and disburse it secretly, great as it is, is not even their greatest power.

No, the greatest power of market-rigging governments and central banks is their ability to intimidate news organizations and market analysts out of investigating and telling the truth about what governments are doing in the markets. If the truth of those market interventions was ever reported, the markets might be very different. They might become actual markets again.

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and I will hold a workshop tonight at 8:20 in the Churchill Room upstairs. You’re all invited.

And if you’d like more information about GATA, please write to me at CPowell@GATA.org.

Thanks for your kind attention.

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

END

Bill Murphy of GATA outlines how the gold cartel is finally in trouble

(zerohedge)

GATA Chairman Murphy at New Orleans conference: Gold cartel is in trouble

 Section: 

12:03a ET Sunday, November 3, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Thanks to Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics, video of GATA’s “workshop” presentation to the New Orleans Investment Conference on November 1 has been posted at YouTube. It begins with an address by GATA Chairman Bill Murphy titled “The Gold Cartel Is in Trouble,” and continues with some remarks by your secretary/treasurer and some answers to questions from the audience.

The video is 47 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTnLRmSwBe0&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

END-

Chris Marcus interview Rory Hall

The Bubbles Are Bursting Now

Many in the gold and silver community have warned for years about the eventual problems and cost of decades of government and Federal Reserve mismanagement. Because as we’ve watched them print and borrow in response to anything that’s happened in recent decades, it was clear that eventually the bill would come due.

But while that always seemed like some far- off event, it appears as if it’s no longer any hypothetical moment in the future. But rather that these events are unfolding now.

The Federal Reserve has begun doing something that they don’ t call quantitative-easing, but has the net effect of increasing the money supply by providing funding lines to banks. Which also raises the question of just how strong the economy actually is, if emergency funding lines are required just to keep the banking system together.

And with the incentive growing for investors to purchase precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum, while pall adium may have already reached its breakpoint, you can only wonder how much longer it goes before we see the precious metals prices move.
Especially because in the midst of all of this, the low prices over recent years have put a crimp in the supply. Which means that there’s less metal, as the demand is rising.

So how does it all play out? Fortunately Rory Hall of The Daily Coin joined me on the show to discuss the situation, as well as the events that are starting to finally unfold right before our eyes at this very moment.

So click to watch the interview, and as always, if you have any questions you’re welcome to email me here.

Chris Marcus
November 2, 2019

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0289/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0306   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 17.29 POINTS OR 0.58%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 446.54 POINTS OR 1.65%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 76.27 POINTS OR 0.33%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.27/Euro RISES TO 1.1168

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.18/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.42/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.82 and Brent: 62,52

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.38%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.99% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.30%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.37: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.19

3k Gold at $1512.50 silver at: 18.14   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 26/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.24

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.42 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9875 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1077 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.38%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.75% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.24%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6931..

We Have Melt-Up: Futures Jump To New All Time High On “Trade Optimism”

In retrospect, the Trump administration’s decision to announce a “phased” launch of the trade deal with China – which does not exist yet, and will likely never be completed – was the most insightful announcement because not only did it drive stocks sharply higher on the day “phase one” was unveiled, but it has been pushing stocks higher ever since.

And sure enough, Monday has been no different because after a weekend full of Trump and Ross soundbites that a deal appears imminent and Trump even offered up the US as a venue for the “phase one” signing, even though nothing has actually been agreed yet, S&P futures levitated higher all session alongside global stocks while bonds slipped and the dollar inched higher.

 

As we reported over the weekend, commerce secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism the U.S. would reach a “phase one” trade deal with China this month and said licenses would be coming “very shortly” for American companies to sell components to Huawei Technologies, while Trump told reporters a trade deal, if completed, will be signed somewhere in the U.S.

As a result, optimism ran rampant in Europe with the Stoxx 600 Index extending gains, in what was a sea of green amid the above mentioned trade deal optimism; the index advanced 0.8% with automakers leading gain among sectors, rising 3% while mining shares and banks follow, with sector indexes up 2.4% and 1.6%, respectively.

 

Risk assets favored optimistic comments on trade from U.S. officials over caution from China and soft manufacturing PMIs, with major European equities all gaining over 0.75%, Autos gain nearly 3% after Ross comments downplay expectations for U.S. tariffs on EU automakers, offsetting another contraction in Eurozone manufacturing PMI, with the final print coming in at 45.9, just above the 45.7 flash print.

 

Meanwhile, Dow futures were up triple digits even as MacDonald’s fell in pre-market trading after its CEO was fired for an inappropriate relationship with an employee. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for a four-year high, led by miners and automakers, which jumped after the U.S. commerce secretary said tariffs on importing vehicles into the American market might be unnecessary. All major Asian markets advanced except Tokyo’s, which was shut. An index tracking emerging-market was set for its biggest gain in three weeks.

“Everyone is kind of upbeat around the prospect of at least a partial China-U.S. trade deal,” Peter Dragicevich, a strategist at Suncorp Corporate Services, told Bloomberg TV. “It’s going to keep equities pretty supported.

After last week’s Q3 earnings reporting peak, investors are eager to push up stocks for a fifth successive week, adding to the 22% gain this year in the S&P500, even as long-time bulls such as Ed Yardeni are starting to get worried, noting that a “market melt-up” is becoming a real risk: speaking on CNBC, Yardeni said that “if the S&P 500 forward earnings multiple ticks to 19 or 20, it could spark a “nasty correction.”

“I just don’t want too much of a good thing here. I’d like this bull market to continue at a leisurely pace not in a melt-up fashion,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “That’s actually the risk.”

For now, however, nobody cars, and earnings continue to roll in around the world, in what is set to be the 3rd consecutive quarter of declining S&P500 earnings. In China, trade data is coming at the end of this week and will give details for October against a backdrop of easing tensions on negotiations with U.S. counterparts.

In geopolitical news, the head of Iran’s Energy Authority says operation of 30 new centrifuges is underway, adding “We didn’t intend to take these steps, but Washington’s wrong policies pushed us to do so”, reported via Al Jazeera. Elsewhere, North Korea and US working level talks could be held in mid-November/December, Yonhap citing South Korea’s spy agency. Over in China, reports via China People’s Daily noted that government employees’ careers are at stake as it flagged intervention in senior appointments. Finally, Turkey was said to be evaluating a Russian offer for fighter jets and the second delivery of Russian S-400 missile system is planned for 2020 but could be delayed due to technology sharing and production talks according to the Head of Turkish Defense Industry Directorate.

In rates, Treasury yields jumped 4bps to 1.75% while the curve bear steepened, as long end Treasuries underperform having been closed during Asian hours.

In FX, most G-10 currencies weakened against the dollar, with the biggest losses seen in the haven Swiss franc, the pound and the Japanese yen. The New Zealand and Australian dollars rallied after U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said he was optimistic an initial trade deal would be signed with China this month, with the kiwi reaching its strongest level since mid-August against the greenback. The pound edged lower after polls over the weekend indicated the Conservative Party’s lead ahead of the December election may be narrowing; sterling dropped on Monday after last week’s 0.9% rally. In EMs, South Africa’s rand surged after the country clung on to its investment-grade credit rating. Treasuries fell along with most sovereign bonds in Europe. The dollar edged higher versus its biggest peers, reversing a five-session decline.

In commodities, crude-oil futures ticked higher. The IPO process for Saudi Aramco officially started on Sunday, with the stock likely to start trading in Riyadh next month. Valuations vary widely.

Expected data include durable-goods orders and factory orders. Ferrari, Sprint, Sysco, Uber, and Marriott are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,075.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 401.99
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 164.73
  • MXAPJ up 1.2% to 531.09
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 22,850.77
  • Topix down 0.03% to 1,666.50
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 27,547.30
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 2,975.49
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 40,336.29
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,686.87
  • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,130.24
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to -0.364%
  • Euro down 0.04% to $1.1162
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 6.9 bps to 0.651%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 0.294%
  • Brent futures down 0.9% to $62.24/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,509.5
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.30

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.S.’s Ross met with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at a regional summit in Bangkok, a person familiar with the discussion said. The meeting came hours after Ross told a morning business forum that the U.S. was “very far along” with “Phase One” of a trade deal with China
  • Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage won’t stand as a candidate in the U.K. election, and will focus instead on campaigning across the country, as his party fields 600 candidates. His refusal to back British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has prompted criticism from other Brexit supporters, who say the strategy could split the anti-EU vote and help Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn win
  • Eurozone October manufacturing PMI came in at 45.9 versus the flash reading of 45.7, while a similar reading for Germany was 42.1 against the flash reading of 41.9. Above the 50 mark indicates expansion, while below that level points to a contraction
  • China’s private companies have been hit disproportionately hard as the economy slows, with their default rate doubling to 12% this year, compared with 1.5% for the overall domestic bond market, according to China International Capital Corp.
  • Saudi Arabia is pulling out all the stops to ensure the success of Aramco’s initial public offering after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman finally decided to offer shares in the world’s largest oil producer
  • McDonald’s Corp. fired Chief Executive Officer Steve Easterbrook because he had a consensual relationship with an employee, losing the strategist who revived sales with all-day breakfast and led the company’s charge into delivery and online ordering

Asian equity markets kick-started the week on the front-foot as the region took impetus from the record highs on Wall St. last Friday following a better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls report and constructive call between top US-China trade negotiators in which progress was said to be made in a variety of areas. ASX 200 (+0.3%) was lifted by outperformance in the mining related stocks due to the trade optimism and after the recent rally in oil prices, but with gains in the index limited by weakness in the largest weighted financials sector after Big 4 bank Westpac reported a decline in its FY profit. Hang Seng (+1.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were also positive with the trade optimism turned up a notch after the recent top-level call, with even White House Trade Adviser and China-hawk Navarro noting the sides had good discussions and US President Trump also floated Iowa as a location for the signing of a phase 1 deal. Furthermore, strength in oil names contributed to the outperformance in Hong Kong, and Japanese markets remained closed today for Culture Day.

Top Asian News

  • Philippine Central Bank Chief Says 2019 Policy Easing Over

Following on from Friday’s post NFP/encouraging trade rhetoric rally, major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%) are again on the front foot, with further trade optimism the major tailwind. US Commerce Secretary Ross, over the weekend signalled optimistic China developments whilst noting that US may not need to impose auto tariffs later this month on the EU, Japan and South Korea, following positive conversations with these countries. DAX and Euro Stoxx indices are at fresh YTD highs, with the latter at its highest levels since early 2018. As expected, European auto names, including Fiat Chrysler (+4.0%), Peugeot (+4.9%), Daimler (+2.2%) and Volkswagen (+2.5%) are driving gains amid Ross’ comments. More broadly, sector performance is reflective of the market’s risk-on sentiment; Materials (+1.6%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%), Tech (+1.1%), Energy (+1.7%) and Financials (+1.6%) are all on the performing well, with the latter two aided by higher yields and crude prices from Friday’s late-doors rally. Meanwhile, the more defensive Utilities (+0.1%), Consumer Staples (Unch.) and Health Care (+0.5%) sectors are laggards. In terms of specific movers; strong earnings from Ryanair (+6.6%), Siemens Healthineers (+7.0%) and Telefonica Deutschland (+1.6%) has seen their respective stock prices advance. Wirecard (+3.7%) trades higher with the prospect of EUR 200mln in additional share buybacks providing some reprieve from the recent FT-induced declines. Finally, UK gambling stocks fell sharply (William Hill -6.9%, GVC -10%) amid pre-market reports via The Guardian that UK MPs are demanding an overhaul of gambling laws which would see online casinos subject to the a maximum stakes limit similar to the GBP 2 imposed on fixed-odds betting terminals.

Top European News

  • U.K. Construction Contracts for Sixth Month Amid Weak Demand
  • Ryanair Says European Regulator Holding Up Return of Boeing Max
  • European Autos Surge to Six-Month High on Trade Deal Optimism
  • Takeaway.com Proposes Just Eat Merger Via Recommended Offer

In FX, the Kiwi is head and shoulders above its G10 counterparts in wake of news that NZ and China will enhance their FTA, with Nzd/Usd extending gains through 0.6450 at one stage even though the latest NZ Treasury report paints a rather bleak picture of the domestic economy as Q2 GDP was weaker than expected and business activity remained depressed during the 3 months to September. However, cross-currents also favoured the Kiwi as Aud/Nzd retreated through 1.0750 and the Aussie lost traction vs its US rival on the 0.6900 handle following disappointing retail sales data on the eve of the RBA’s policy meeting – full preview available via the Research Suite. Elsewhere, the Rand is breathing a big sigh of relief after Moody’s SA ratings review on Friday as the agency resisted any temptation to go beyond the widely anticipated outlook downgrade to negative. Usd/Zar has reversed further from recent highs in response and back below the psychological 15.0000 level to test bids/support at 14.7500.

  • CHF/JPY – The safe-havens have receded in line with risk-on sentiment prompted by the hefty US payroll beats and rising global trade optimism amidst latest positive updates on US-China Phase 1 alongside talks between the US, EU, Japan and South Korea that could culminate in auto tariffs being rolled over or even removed altogether. The Franc is also digesting even more dovish remarks than normal from SNB chief Jordan and latest weekly Swiss sight deposits showing a hefty rise in domestic bank accounts, as Usd/Chf hovers above 0.9875 and Eur/Chf over 1.1025, while the Yen and crosses are also elevated, with Usd/Jpy eyeing 108.50.
  • CAD/GBP/EUR – All softer vs the Greenback as the DXY holds above 97.000 and Friday’s 97.107 post-NFP low, as the Loonie continues to reflect on the BoC’s rather concerned outlook and pivots 1.3150, while Cable strives to keep its head above 1.2900 ahead of the UK election and the Pound lags against a relatively resilient Euro after some signs of stabilisation in the core and pan Eurozone manufacturing PMIs. Note also, Sentix sentiment improved substantially and Eur/Usd may be benefiting from expiry hedging given 1 bn running off between 1.1155-60.
  • EM – Choppy trade in Usd/Try within 5.7075-6800 parameters after another slowdown in Turkish CPI and reports that the second batch of S-400 missiles from Russia may be delayed, with the Lira testing 200 DMA resistance, but not quite breaching the technical marker.

In commodities, crude markets are firmer on the first trading session of the week following overnight consolidation from Friday’s late-door gains, with impetus derived from the overall risk sentiment and in wake of of comments from the Iranian Oil Minister Zanganeh who expects further cuts to be agreed at the 5th/6th December OPEC meeting (in-fitting with some of the recent sources reports ahead of the meeting, although the magnitude of the touted cuts is unknown). WTI Dec’ 19 futures have moved above last Friday’s USD 56.43/bbl high, as has Brent Jan’ 20 futures, which also eclipsed the USD 62.00/bbl level. Elsewhere, COT data released last Friday showed that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 45.6k lots over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long of 253,999 lots as of last Tuesday. “This is the largest weekly increase since early September, and also takes the net spec position back to levels seen in September” notes ING, who point out that “the increase was predominantly driven by fresh longs, rather than shorts coming in to cover.” Turning to metals; gold prices are subdued, despite the risk on moves being seen across equities and bonds. Copper meanwhile is similarly uneventful – CFTC data from last Friday revealed that speculators have increased gross longs by 11,514 lots over the week, and covered 11,949 shorts, amid recent gains in the markets risk tone.

Saudi Arabia have confirmed that Saudi Aramco is to be publicly floated, currently no indication on the timing, price or magnitude of the IPO. Reports note scepticism that Aramco will achieve its USD 2trl valuation, likely to be closer to USD 1.5trl. Stake offered could be between 1-3% valued at USD 15-60bln.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.1%, prior -1.1%
  • 10am: Durables Ex Transportation, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. -0.4%, prior -0.1%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.5%
  • 10am: Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.0%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Monday to you all. In all the time I’ve been writing the EMR, the story I get asked about the most is the time I discussed how I had a whole bank of freshly planted trees stolen from outside my old house. This was around 7 years ago. I even replanted some, got stakes inserted through the roots to secure them deep into the ground and they attempted to steal those too. I was incandescent with rage. Well this weekend we’ve tempted fate and planted new ones at the boundary of our new house. So, if anyone reading this from anywhere around the world suddenly gets offered some cheap trees please don’t be tempted as they’re probably using my garden as their tree nursery.

Talking of trees, some green shoots of data recovery were seen towards the end of last week in the US.Indeed our economists have changed their US rate call this weekend for the second time since Wednesday’s Fed meeting. After the FOMC they marginally decided to keep a December cut in their forecasts but Friday’s impressive jobs report (more below) means that the Fed are unlikely to receive enough information prior to the December FOMC that leads to a “material reassessment” in the outlook that they have noted is needed to cut rates again. Therefore, unless they see negative surprises in key events – most notably auto tariffs and China negotiations they now see the Fed remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. They still see the risks to the downside, and the Fed having to cut again, but being on hold is now their central scenario. Interestingly on auto tariffs, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said yesterday on Bloomberg TV that the US has been having “good conversations” with automakers from the EU, Japan and Korea. He went onto say that he hoped the negotiations had so far will bear enough fruit that the 232 may not need to be put into full or even part effect. This will be seen as good news as the end of the 6-month delay on making a decision on EU auto tariffs ends this month. He also sounded optimistic on the “phase one” trade deal being signed this month and said licences for US companies to sell to Huawei will be coming “very shortly”.

The strong close on Wall Street on Friday and those comments from Ross seem to have helped Asian markets kick start the week on the front foot with the Hang Seng (+1.30%), Shanghai Comp (+0.76%) and Kospi (+1.30%) all up with markets in Japan closed for a holiday. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.23%. In FX the big mover is the South African rand (+1.28%) after Moody’s announced on Friday that it had decided not to downgrade the country’s credit score to junk, although it did reduce the outlook to negative.

Back to Friday’s data, the US economy added 128,000 jobs in October, plus another 95,000 of positive revisions to previous months. Consensus was at 85k. Given the GM strikes and revisions these were seen as healthy numbers. For many this meant the subsequent ISM was less of an issue. This proved to be the case but we should note that it came in slightly below expectations at 48.3 (48.9 expected – 47.8 last month) marking the third month below 50. The good news in the report was the surge in new export orders from a shockingly low 41.0 last month to a 4-month high of 50.4. All eyes on the services component tomorrow (53.4 expected from 52.6 last month).

The week post payroll is usually quiet for data. This week is slightly different as given payrolls was released on the 1st (Friday), and that Europe had a part holiday on the same day, we have the rare situation where European manufacturing PMIs (today) and European (Wednesday) /US non-manufacturing PMIs/ISM (Tuesday) are released after payrolls. There’s a raft of Fedspeak due this week and the first speech from new ECB President Lagarde (today). Expect the UK election campaign to gain momentum. The polls (YouGov, Opinium, Orb) over the weekend showed some interesting developments as 1) the Conservatives ranged from an 8-16pc lead, 2) both the Conservatives and Labour are gaining support since the election was announced and 3) Labour seem to be gaining a little more of it from a low base but the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party and getting squeezed. The early signs are that this could be more of the traditional two party race than many thought.

Today’s European manufacturing PMIs will be a big focus and expectations for the Eurozone, Germany and France numbers are for no change to the flash at 45.7, 41.9 and 50.5, respectively. Spain and Italy’s are expected to dip 0.2 and 0.1 points respectively from last month to 47.5 and 47.7 respectively. So with stabilisation expected, any move either way will get markets excited. For Wednesday’s European final services PMIs, the Eurozone and German number is also expected to be unchanged from the flash at 51.8 and 48.6 respectively with the other main countries expected within a few tenths of last month’s readings in the 51-53 range. The Eurozone composite is expected to edge up 0.1 points to 50.2

In terms of other US data we have the final September durable and capital goods orders revisions today, Q3 non-farm productivity and unit labour costs on Wednesday and the preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday. In Europe we’ve also got the September industrial production prints in Germany on Thursday and France on Friday, while the European Commission will also publish its latest economic forecasts on Thursday. Finally in China we’ll get the services and composite Caixin PMIs for October on tomorrow (another important release for global markets) and the October trade data on Friday.

As for policy meetings this week, the BoE meet on Thursday. No policy changes are expected. Our economists expect the BoE to sound dovish, dropping its tightening bias and instead moving towards an easing policy stance. They note that, domestically data have deteriorated sufficiently to warrant more supportive monetary policy. Growth has slowed and is tracking below the Bank’s “speed limit” of 1.5% with uncertainty likely weighing further on the near-term growth outlook. Equally, the UK supply side story is also turning softer, with labour market indicators pointing to downside risks for both pay and jobs by Q4-2019 and inflation now expected to remain below target in 2020. The team see an increasing risk of a rate cut at the January Inflation Report – Governor Carney’s final MPC meeting.

Staying with central banks, as discussed earlier it’s another busy week for Fedspeak. Indeed today we’ll hear from Daly, Tuesday will see Barkin, Kaplan and Kashkari speak, Wednesday will see Evans, Williams and Harker speak, Thursday will see Kaplan speak and on Friday we’ll hear from Bostic and Daly.

Meanwhile, earnings season starts to slow down with just 66 S&P 500 companies reporting. The highlights include Sysco and Berkshire Hathaway on Monday, CVS on Wednesday, and Walt Disney and Cardinal Health on Thursday. Away from the US we’ll also get results from Telefonica, Softbank, BMW, Toyota, Siemens, Allianz and Honda.

Reviewing last week now and it was another positive week for equities with data on balance more positive, trade talks seemingly going in the right direction, a U.K. election finally called and a Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 advanced +1.5% (+0.97% Friday and a new record high) with semiconductors leading gains, up +2.5% on the week. The Nasdaq gained +1.7% (+1.13% Friday and also to a new record). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained +0.4% (+0.68% Friday) though banks underperformed, down -2.6% but up +0.99% Friday. Yields fell, with 10-year yields on treasuries and bunds down -8 and -2 basis points respectively but up 2bps and 2.5bps on Friday. Friday not only had positive data but markets liked the comments from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that they had achieved a “consensus in principle” on trade. Phone talks on Friday were also seen as “constructive” from both sides.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.29 POINTS OR 0.58%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 446.54 POINTS OR 1.65%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 76.27 POINTS OR 0.33%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0289 /Oil UP TO 56.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.52 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0289 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0306 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Saturday

Hong Kong/China

Protestors firebomb the big Xinhua  (Mainland China’s)news agency

(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Protestors Firebomb Xinhua News Agency Office

Hong Kong protestors on Saturday firebombed the Hong Kong office of the Chinese state-run news agency Xinhua, ramping up nearly a half a year of violent protests across the city that triggered a technical recession last week.

Video of protestors vandalizing the Xinhua News Agency Asia-Pacific Regional Bureau office in Hong Kong, surfaced onto Twitter around 12:30 pm est Saturday. The footage shows demonstrators smashing windows and firebombing the reception area of the building.

CGTN

@CGTNOfficial

strongly condemns vandalizing of its office by rioters more: https://bit.ly/2PGllAb

Embedded video

RT

@RT_com

protesters vandalize & set fire to news agency officehttps://on.rt.com/a4k4

Embedded video

Sam Pye@freddie1999

VIDEO: Wan Chai offices of state-run News Agency after they were badly damaged during today’s pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong pic.twitter.com/NI9XS0T4v7

Embedded video

A Xinhua spokesperson on Saturday evening strongly condemned the savage behaviors of protestors setting fire to its Asia-Pacific office.

“We resolutely support the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government and police in stopping violence and chaos in accordance with the law. We also believe that this illegal act will be condemned by all sectors of Hong Kong society,” the spokesperson said.

Xinhua is a Chinese state-run news agency that echoes the talking points of the Communist Party of China.

Protesters in recent weeks have specifically targeted Chinese businesses that have strong connections with Beijing as anger continues to erupt over what protestors say China is trying to take their freedoms away.

Thousands of protestors shut down streets around the Causeway Bay shopping district on Saturday, throwing rocks and chanting pro-democracy slogans at police.

Police responded by firing teargas canisters and water cannons to break up several rallies. Protestors also tossed petrol bombs.

Beijing has been unwilling to use the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces to intervene in the protests, but if more Chinese businesses are firebombed, then it’s likely PLA forces could lock down the city in the near term.

 

end
MONDAY MORNING
China/Usa
Ross meets with top Chinese officials as mid levels talks spark optisim
(zerohedge)

Ross Meets With Top Chinese Official As Mid-Level Trade Talks Spark More “Optimism”

Update (6:50 am ET): O’Brien followed up Ross’s performance by insisting that we’re “close” to a  “Phase 1” deal with China.

* * *

Perhaps to help quash rumors that they’re not taking the trade talks seriously, the Chinese leadership (according to President Trump) recently offered Trump an important concession to help facilitate the trade talks: They allegedly agreed to hold the next round of high-level talks on American soil (perhaps Mar-a-Lago or even President Trump’s Doral golf club might be floated as locations).

But in the mean time, scattered talks, over the phone and in person, have continued. But in a sign that the president might be growing tired of his top trade negotiators and surrogates, Trump reportedly dispatched a “downgraded” delegation led by US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien to meet Chinese Premier Li Keqiang Monday afternoon at the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Bangkok, according to a Bloomberg report. The meeting took place hours after Ross, who was sidelined early on during the trade talks reportedly because Trump felt he had mishandled early negotiations, tried his hand at jawboning and told a meeting of business leaders that the US was “very far along” with “Phase One” of the trade deal with China.

Then, in an interview with Bloomberg on Sunday, Ross “expressed optimism” about the prospects for talks with China this month before working on additional phases. He also said licenses would be coming “very shortly” for US firms to sell components to Huawei, an issue that has, so far, stuck in China’s craw.

To be sure, President Trump has been promising to issue waivers for Huawei, which wound up on a Commerce Department blacklist earlier this year prohibiting US firms from selling critical components.

Trump and Vice Premier Liu He insisted that “Phase 1” was pretty much finished, Ross offered a more “nuanced” take…insisting that the continuing talks on “Phase 1” are merely Washington doing its due diligence, and nothing more (he also seems to have left out “Florida” from the list of possible locations for the next round of top-level talks).

Ross called the Phase One agreement “particularly complicated” and said the US was “making sure that each side has a very correct and clear, detailed understanding of what each side has agreed to.” Iowa, Alaska, Hawaii and locations in China were all possible places for Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign the deal after the cancellation of this month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile.

“We’re in good shape, we’re making good progress, and there’s no natural reason why it couldn’t be,” Ross said. “But whether it will slip a little bit, who knows. It’s always possible.”

During his appearance on Monday, Ross reportedly insisted that the White House remained “fully committed” to the Indo-Pacific region, as Trump’s absence and “America First” policies that recently inspired the pullout from Syria have seemingly shaken the faith of other US allies around the world.

But most importantly, at least as far as the fate of the talks is concerned, Ross reportedly remained “non-commital” about the possibility of the administration cancelling the next round of planned tariff hikes in December. Ross said it will depend on Chinese legislation and an enforcement mechanism.

Trump agreed to cancel a round of tariffs set for October just days before they were set to take effect last month. The bigger test this time around will be whether the US can get the ‘partial’ trade deal that Trump once loathed down on paper before mid-December.

Meanwhile, the US-China deal wasn’t the only trade deal being discussed in Bangkok…

Asian leaders were separately expected to announce a breakthrough on another trade pact, the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, at the end of the meetings. It remained uncertain whether the pact would include India, which jeopardized it with last-minute requests.

Ross in the interview downplayed the significance of RCEP, which would lower tariffs in an area that represents roughly a third of the global economy, and defended U.S. engagement in Asia after Trump skipped the Asean meetings for a second straight year.

Contentious issues remain and the terms aren’t yet known, but RCEP would at least partly fill a trade gap left by Trump’s 2017 withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Southeast Asia collectively has the world’s fifth largest economy and has struggled to wade through the economic fallout of U.S.-China trade tensions.

The message is clear: Beijing isn’t waiting around for Washington to make up its mind.

END

Michael Every discusses 4 reasons why China will not do a trade deal with the USA

(zerohedge)

Four Reasons Why The “Trade Deal” With China Remains A Farce

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Let’s start today with the traditional wrap up of what was worth noting from Friday’s US labor market report. Firstly, it definitely suggested that on a headline basis, we are in a phase of jobs growth that is still set to stun market bears. The magic payrolls number was 128K vs. just 85K expected, and with upwards revision to the previous two months, including September from 136K to 180K and August from 168K to 219K. Moreover, that was despite a strike at GM in the survey period that would have dampened results by 41.6K that is going to be reversed in the next set of data. The unemployment rate actually edged up to 3.6% as the labour force grew, and there was no change in hours worked, while average earnings growth was a moderate 3.0% y/y, as expected.

So far, so good, even for a lagging series. In terms of the impact on rates markets, there was an obvious move in US Treasury yields, which jumped from 1.67% to 1.74% before closing at 1.71%. Likewise, it was good news for stocks, with yet another record S&P high now hanging on the utility belt. Obviously, the Fed liked the data a lot, especially since the three unforeseen-and-on-paper-now-unnecessary(?) rate cuts this year can be put forward as having allowed this all to unfold in classic post hoc ergo propter hoc central-bank thinking.

The Fed’s Kashkari then turned a phaser on traditional economic thinking with his comment that “Maximum employment is a labor market consistent with 2% inflation. Until wage growth, net of productivity, is at least at 2%, we can’t be there yet (and we’re not now). And that ignores the potential for labour share to increase, which it might.” Obviously the message is that US rates will stay low, or can go lower, despite the strong labour market. Yet it is entirely possible to have zero unemployment and zero wage growth net of productivity in perpetuity. It’s called slavery – and, tragically, it still goes on in some parts of the world. Kashkari alludes to this with talk about the labour share, which–shock horror!!–is Marxist terminology. Yet it’s not clear if this is full recognition that the political structure within which the labour market operates actually matters or not for the Fed’s models, or if it is just looking for an excuse to do all it can to juice the asset markets. (And Marx had a lot to say about what a mess financial capitalism ends up in when it relies on speculation and not productive investment…as do an increasing number of serious contenders for the Democratic Party presidential nomination.)

Short term, of course, the market will be happy with the buzz it gets from a phaser set to a weak ‘stun’, as jobs grow and rates shrink, in a Star-Trek equivalent of glue sniffing; yet the market simply doesn’t want to grapple with the political implications that are looming when those same phasers are set to ‘kill’ by newly-elected bridge crew. I can wholeheartedly assure you when the penny drops it will be akin to James T Kirk’s classic “KHAAAAAAAN!” moment.

Meanwhile, on the other source of market optimism, the US-China trade deal, phasers seem to be set for ‘stun’ but have actually been set for ‘bum’. That is because while President Trump is tweeting about whether to sign his “phase one” deal in Iowa or Hawaii (Think: where are the swing voters? Not Honolulu), all signs point to what we concluded a long time ago (when young people still knew what phasers were in popular culture): this is a bum deal. Why do we say that? Without referencing our own work again, consider:

  1. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has just said Democrats are ready to get tougher on China than Trump by aligning with the EU against it. Of course, the Democrats are bending over backwards not to mention China pre-election in exactly the same way as Greta Thunberg, and the EU has generally been in ‘surrender-monkey’ mode – but this does suggest Trump might actually be the trade dove at this point in time.
  2. The head of the US Chamber of Commerce in China is quoted as saying of the phase one deal: “Of course, it’s helpful for the farmers and I’m glad to see farmers benefit, but that’s not really what we’re looking for….it’s not addressing the systemic trade issues that the business community would be concerned about on a long-term basis…For every government policy in China, there’s a contradictory policy. The government says, ‘OK, we’d better do a bit more to help the foreigners’, but does that change industrial policies? Does it change that the state sector is dominant? No. As long as they have plans that Chinese enterprises should have more and more market share in China, in their sector and globally, we know that they will welcome us, but only with conditions.” Indeed, phase one on US-China trade seems an empty box in most respects, and we don’t expect there is a phase two to follow.
  3. China’s Shanghai Import Expo is about to get rolling to almost as much fanfare as last year’s inaugural event…where actors were allegedly hired to pretend to be buyers. Question: What was Chinese import growth y/y in USD in September 2019? Answer: minus 8.5%. Australia is sending a government representative to accentuate the positive (and in local terms it is a rare positive), but the idea that China is about to be a major new source of global import demand seems science fiction.
  4. US Commerce Secretary Ross is suggesting sales to Huawei will begin again soon. Yet that overlooks: (1) China is plowing tens of USD billions into its pre-fab industry to make sure US chips aren’t needed in the near future, and there will be no going back on that; and (2) the US is leaning on Taiwan’s top chip maker TSMC to stop selling to mainland China, including Huawei. Is that because the US wants to sell the chips instead, or because it doesn’t want anyone selling that tech to Beijing?

So do please look past market technobabble as dire and internally inconsistent as the dialogue in Star Trek Discovery, and political snake-oil, and recall that phasers are being deliberately set to ‘stun’ and/or ‘bum’. Honestly, it’s only Monday and already one wants to say ‘Beam me up, Scotty’ (despite Kirk never actually saying it) or just “KHAAAAAAAAAN!”

end

Our resident expert on Chinese affairs Gordon Chang states that China is incompatible with the uSA and the West

a must read..

Gordon Chang/Sara Carter)

Chang: China Is “The Third Reich In The 21st Century”

Via SaraACarter.com,

Scholar Gordan Chang warns that the United States must ultimately “disengage from China” on all fronts if it is to maintain its status as a global superpower or risk China’s massive potential to change the geopolitical structure of the world.

Chang, who just returned from Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea, spoke on The Sara Carter Show where he described the current state of Beijing and the authoritarian government’s influence across the globe.

“This is the Third Reich in the 21st century,” said Chang.

China’s policy “is incompatibility with our system. We are unfortunately going to have to reverse course and disengage from China to protect ourselves – to reduce our vulnerability to an extremely dangerous actor.”

This reporter was recently in Japan and South Korea with Chang and other experts who attended the international CPAC conventions. It is an international effort to connect with foreign allies who are battling increased pressure by socialist and leftist leaders bent on targeting open markets, democracy and independence.

What we have to do ultimately is to disengage from China to get our companies out of China, to get China out of the United States because we cannot live with this militant Communist superstate that takes the position that China is the world’s only sovereign state,” said Chang.

He noted that the Chinese government sees the U.S. as  basically subjects of Beijing’s expansion and that the communist government believes “Americans must acknowledge Chinese sovereignty and obey them.”

He noted that the Trump administration must “continue to impose high tariffs.” Chang does not believe that the current proposed trade deal with China will change Beijing’s efforts to take economic control or curtail the Chinese military and intelligence apparatus from stealing intellectual property.

“China has been stealing hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. intellectual property each year,” he said. “And I don’t think we’re going to stop that with a Phase 1 trade deal.”

“So get our companies out of China,” he added. “That will reduce their opportunity for stealing from us right now. You know Sara, Beijing is dropping hints that we have to accept the genocidal campaign it’s conducting inside its own borders.”

“This is absolutely unacceptable what China is doing there is trying to eliminate racial and ethnic group a religious group,” said Chang.

He noted that the Chinese aren’t going to back down and basically demand that the U.S. not change its policy or get involved with their own human right’s violations in their nation or in the region.

END

China/USA TAIWAN

And they are close to signing part one of the trade deal despite the following?????;

(zerohedge)

Washington Urges Taiwan To Halt Chip Sales To Huawei

Washington has demanded that the Taiwanese government immediately force export bans on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to stop it from selling semiconductors to Huawei, a move that would absolutely make Beijing furious, and could intensify the trade war.

There are reports that Beijing and Washington are close to signing a “Phase 1” of the US-China trade deal, but Beijing even said several weeks ago that signing a whole agreement with the Trump administration was unlikely.

US officials told Taiwanese diplomats that semiconductors produced by TSMC, then bought by Huawei, were ending up in Chinese missile guidance systems that were aimed at Taiwan, reported Finacial Times (FT).

“US officials often have conversations with Taiwan interlocutors about the security and end-use of their technology supply chains. We have similar general export control and non-proliferation conversations with many partners,” the official said.

“In this particular case, we have a partner that is under a direct military threat from China, and is also one of the few places that produce certain technologies China needs to support its military ambitions.”

Randy Abrams, head of regional semiconductor research at Credit Suisse, said TSMC saw a modest boost in sales after Washington limited Huawei from selling its products in key US markets.

Abrams said China accounted for 20% of TSMC’s revenue in Q3, and Huawei was at least half of that. “If the Taiwan government were to force TSMC to drop Huawei as a customer, the stock market would react unfavorably.”

Tech experts told FT that Washington’s ability to force Taiwan to intervene in free markets and halt TSMC from selling semiconductors to Huawei would be challenging.

“Given Washington’s focus on competition with China and the role of semiconductors in things like 5G and advanced military capabilities, I expect the administration and Congress to increase their scrutiny of the export of advanced chips to China from Taiwan and other countries like Japan and South Korea,” said Eric Sayers, vice-president at Beacon Global Strategies.

Washington has been desperately running around the world, generating Sinophobia in countries that surround China to countries across the Eurozone. Washington’s agenda is clear: decouple the world from China. But that very mission will likely not succeed, due to China’s already significant presence globally.

China’s isn’t going anywhere — and Washington elites, along with corporate America, have to get used to the idea of a multi-polar world.

END
CHINA/USA
I guess this is to be expected from the Chinese:  Beijing is reportedly planning to ambush the USA with a last minute demand to drop tariffs.
(zerohedge)

Beijing Reportedly Planning To Ambush US With Last-Minute Demand To Drop Tariffs

Just minutes after the Dow closed at a fresh ATH (Trump tweet incoming), a headline that appears to cast doubt on the viability of the “Phase 1” deal after senior government officials and media in both China and the US spent the whole day talking it up.

On the surface, it doesn’t look like much: As the two sides continue tying up loose ends, Beijing is looking for the removal of the 15% tariffs imposed in September.

First Squawk@FirstSquawk

BEIJING IS ALSO PUSHING U.S. TO REMOVE A 15% TARIFF THAT WAS IMPOSED ON ROUGHLY $112 BLN WORTH OF CHINESE GOODS ON SEPT. 1 – POLITICO CITING SOURCES

Follow the story live: http://bit.ly/rbgsgnup 

While algos apparently didn’t make the connection (there was only a modest reaction in Dow futures), anybody who has been closely following the talks should know that Washington has only promised to consider removing the upcoming December round as part of the deal: Earlier tariffs haven’t been discussed. And there’s probably a good reason for that: Washington has so far been extremely reluctant to offer any tariff relief (part of Trump’s insistence that the Chinese must prove adherence to the deal before the trade barriers come down).

Dow futures were knocked down a peg:

But if the market’s recent performance is any guide, there will be more losses to come as the week wears on.

To sum up, it looks like the Chinese are returning to their old ways of making big demands at the last minute – demands that ultimately scupper any kind of deal (the US has repeatedly accused Beijing of negotiating in bad faith). Which means that the White House could probably back away now and save the West Wing staff the trouble of planning another high-profile meeting.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Two commentaries on our resident experts on Brexit

(\Tom Luongo/ and Mish Shedlock)

Farage’s High Risk Strategy For Brexit

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Nigel Farage has thrown down the gauntlet to Boris Johnson over the election strategy. Johnson has refused.

Of course he did. Farage made an offer Johnson couldn’t accept, ditch the Withdrawal Treaty he just negotiated with the EU and truly campaign on a far harder Brexit than Johnson has ever advocated for.

If he doesn’t do that about-face, Farage’s Brexit Party standing candidates in more than 500 seats and potentially split the Leave vote.

Mike Shedlock thinks Farage’s deal is “Preposterous.” Mike is wrong. It is the only offer Farage could offer the Tories and stay in any way relevant in a time of electoral chaos and party fluidity.

It is the kind of ‘big ask’ that his friend Donald Trump would make. It may be an opening bid in a complex negotiation that ends with them making a pact towards the end of the campaign.

Frankly that only happens if the polls shift considerably from where they are.

Politics is not a game for the timid or the weak. If Farage is to be a big player in British politics he needs to act like he is a big player in British politics.

And that means sticking to his core message, a real Brexit where the U.K. regains sovereignty over itself in a timely manner. 2022 is not timely for the U.K.

It is, however, timely for the EU, given the realities of its continent-wide political uprisings against its rule.

Farage is smartly not just saying that Brexit is his party’s raison d’etre, he’s using Brexit as the means to change the post-Brexit political environment, something the Tories are absolutely dead set against.

Farage has positioned the Brexit Party on a “Change Politics for Good” platform that proposes sweeping changes to the system from proportional representation to a written constitution and reforming the House of Lords.

This is, as Monty Python would say, something completely different.

The statement itself cuts to what’s fundamentally wrong. It’s aspirational and tells the voters they still have the real power after three years of parliamentary shenanigans designed to marginalize them while being insufferably condescending.

We’ll find out in the next couple of weeks as to whether Farage et.al. can make the case to British voters that these changes go hand in hand with Brexit. Are these people not only tired of the endless Brexit wrangling but now truly awake to the depth of the betrayal of their political representatives?

If they are then Boris Johnson will have a real problem come December 12th.

Because that is a platform, beyond Brexit, that cuts across all party lines.

The Tories are rallying around their common message now that they have an election. There are serious misgivings within in the party on Johnson’s deal and the strategy. But fear of losing Brexit has motivated the strongest Brexiteers to cave to what Mike rightly points out has been the political reality.

But that was before the election was secured.

Hard core Leavers like Marc Francois and Steven Baker, prominent members of the ERG — European Research Group — are on board with the deal and have called out Farage as lying about it.

But, arguing that these guys being on board with Boris’ treaty means it’s a good deal is simply appeal to authority while missing the much larger point.

The Tories are the main mechanism by which the British Deep State and political elite maintain control over not only British policy, but also that of the U.S. and much of Europe. Don’t for a second think that these ERG guys are any less compromised in the end than the outright Remainers like Ken Clarke, Dominik Grieve or Philip Hammond.

They will always put party before country in the end. Most of them proved it during Theresa May’s multiple rounds of blackmail last spring by eventually voting for that deal because, ultimately, they are spineless.

Fear of losing Brexit is what motivates them. Fear of Farage upsetting the apple cart in Westminster is also very real.

Farage may be overstating the threats within the political declaration to the U.K.’s bargaining position during Free Trade Agreement talks, but he also knows the EU side of the ledger far better than any of the newly-promoted back-benchers in the ERG.

So, if I’m going to resort to appealing to an authority on the subject I’m going with the guy who put the world in this situation in the first place, Nigel Farage.

That said, however, Farage’s strategy is a risky one. There’s no doubt about that. With the most recently published polls putting Johnson at his peak of popularity and the Brexit Party languishing around 10% Farage has a lot of ground to gain in six weeks.

There are real worries that Farage’s support in the Labour heartland of the Midlands and the Northeast isn’t as strong as he thinks it is. But, given how fundamentally split the Remain vote is between the Liberal Democrats and Labour, I don’t see how Farage hurts Johnson unless Farage’s numbers rise.

And Johnson will absolutely try to duck any head-to-head meetings between them just like Theresa May did.

But you don’t change things by being timid. Farage doesn’t win loyalty by going up to Boris Johnson, bowl in hand, and asking for another ladle of gruel. You act like the big dog and you challenge the alpha who, to this point, doesn’t even know what he signed the U.K. up for.

I maintain that Johnson is a fake Leaver and none of his behavior has contravened that, including duping the ERG into backing a now unnecessary Withdrawal Treaty which served its purpose to get a general election to get rid of a rotten Parliament.

Johnson and the ERG know this, and yet, they will persist in putting party first, betraying Northern Ireland, keeping the U.K. as close to the failing EU as possible and all the while calling it Brexit.

Given those circumstances would you expect Nigel Farage to offer Boris Johnson anything more?

END

Don’t Watch The Latest UK Polls, Instead Watch The Trends

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Here’s the 6 most recent Tory poll results: 40, 36, 34, 36, 41, 36. Is there a trend? Yes, you have to dig to find it.

It’s easy to see that Boris Johnson and the Tories have a lead. But is it 4% or 17%?

Is YouGov right or Opinium? What about Survation?

This is not the right way of looking at things. You can go mad watching these results seemingly jump all over the place.

Some of these pollsters are going to be way off the mark.

Theresa May was supposed to win in a blowout but she barely hung on.

Missing the Picture

In regards to Theresa May, nearly what everyone missed was the trend heading into election day.

While most of the polls had the Tories winning, the trends were decidedly moving towards Labour in the last couple weeks before the election.

That was a very ominous sign for the Tory party.

Had the election been a week later she may have lost. Had the election been a week earlier, she may not have needed DUP to survive.

Trends

What are the trends?

There seems to be a lot of give and take if you aimlessly follow the latest polls.

However, the trends are very clear if you plot by pollster.

Tory Party Poll Trends

Data for my charts is from Wikipedia.

The range of the most recent Tory polls is 34-41%.

All six of the pollsters have the Tory party gradually and consistently gaining strength.

Labour Party Poll Trends

The range the six most recent Labour polls is 21-29%.

Four of six polling organizations suggest support for Labour is stagnant. The other two say support for Labour is rising, but not as steeply as support for the Tories.

ComRes shows a rising trend for Labour, but it from October 10 and is thus very stale.

One bad print from ComRes will have 5 of 6 stagnant trends for Labour.

Clustering

  • The six most recent polls for Labour average 24.17%
  • The six most recent polls for Tories average 37.17%

That’s an average lead of 13%, easily enough for a Tory landslide.

Leave or Remain?

YouGov Poll Trends say people support Remain.

But check out another YouGov poll.

No Deal and No Corbyn

By a 48% to 35% margin, Britons would rather have No Deal and no Corbyn than Corbyn.

That poll is from August 17, 2019 and might easily be more skewed against Corbyn today.

My trend charts support that determination.

Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus had it this way in September.

Our regular month-end poll of polls shows an average Conservative lead of seven per cent over Labour. This is just enough for a small majority in the House of Commons, which is the headline prediction above.”

Electoral Calculus October 30

Prediction based on opinion polls from 01 Oct 2019 to 25 Oct 2019

That is a stunning victory for Johnson even without a Brexit Party alliance.

National Polls

It’s important to not overemphasize support for Remain.

This is not a national election.

London would overwhelmingly vote Remain, but London business leaders certainly do not want Corbyn.

National polls don’t count in a first-past-the-post regional voting system. This is what Hillary Clinton found out in spades.

These Brexit trends can change at any time, but there is no particular reason to believe they will.

Like it or not, voters are getting more comfortable with Johnson, and Johnson has business on his side.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/USA/Lebanon

Trump freezes military aid to Turkey after their incursion into Syria

(zerohedge)

Trump Freezes Lebanon Military Aid After Israel Voiced Concerns 

Amid recent statements by both Iranian and Hezbollah leaders accusing the United States of hijacking the massive anti-corruption protests which have gridlocked Lebanon for over the past two weeks, the White House has made the dramatic and unexpected move of freezing US military aid to the Lebanese Army.

The money, part of a military aid package totaling $105 million, had been approved by Congress and the State Department, and requested by the Pentagon. Interestingly, proponents of the package argued that it would allow the Lebanese Army to grow more independent, making it less cooperative with Hezbollah.

According to Reutersthe aid was frozen two days following Tuesday’s resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, who in a parting speech admitted he’d “reached a dead end” amid the protests which have reportedly involved one million people, or up to 25% of Lebanon’s total population, and further called on “all Lebanese to protect civil peace”.

 

Protests have gridlocked Beirut over the past two weeks, via the AP. 

The United States, said the report, has frequently voiced “concern over the growing role in the Beirut government of Hezbollah, the armed Shi’ite group backed by Iran and listed as a terrorist organization by the United States.”

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo this week called on Beirut to take steps for a new unified government which focused on rooting out endemic corruption.

Though no specific reason was given as to why the White House has targeted Lebanon for an aid freeze, Trump has lately signaled his disdain for the amount of foreign aid Washington hands out around the world, seemingly with no strings attached.

On Friday, an Israeli media report revealed that officials in Tel Aviv had lobbied the White House to condition any US Lebanese aid based on the country removing advanced arms in possession of Hezbollah — something it should be noted that Lebanon’s national forces are likely incapable of, given the Shia paramilitary organization is actually considered stronger.

The Foreign Ministry ordered Israeli diplomats “in all relevant countries,” including the US and European states, to emphasize the need to cease providing aid to Lebanon as long as the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror organization does not cease upgrading its military capabilities that could target Israel, the official added. — Times of Israel

“In discreet talks with various capitals, we made it clear that any aid meant to guarantee the stability of Lebanon needs to be conditioned on Lebanon dealing with Hezbollah’s precision-guided missiles,” a senior official told The Times of Israel. “Anything short of that will be problematic, in our eyes.”

This could mark a big first step in Trump cutting of aid to ‘dysfunctional’ governments and/or governments made up of elements which are hostile to the United States, as is the case with the designated group Hezbollah.

end

Turkey/USA Syria

Not good: a USA convoy was attacked by Turkish backed militants in Syria

(zerohedge)

US Convoy In Syria Attacked By Turkey-Backed Militants: Russian MoD

Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced Sunday that a US military convoy came under attack by Turkey-backed militants in Syria.

“American troops heading toward the Iraqi border have been attacked from land held by Turkish-backed militants in northern Syria, Russia’s Ministry of Defense has claimed,” according to a breaking report by RT.

Russian military sources, who have this week been seen in close vicinity with US troops amid a Pentagon draw down from border areas, reported no casualties as a result of the alleged incident.

 

US convoy in northern Syria file image, via Zuma Press/WSJ 

Though the Pentagon did not immediately confirm the report, there’s been increasing tensions between Washington and Ankara over proposed Congressional sanctions on Turkey, also as the ‘US withdrawal’ from northern Syria became in reality a mere ‘partial’ draw down with American forces redeployed to ‘secure’ oil fields in partnership with the Kurdish-led SDF.

According to details from the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD), the American convoy was attacked near the town of Tell Tamer on the M4 highway, which runs parallel to the Turkish border near areas captured by pro-Turkish forces as part of ‘Operation Peace Spring’.

An official statement from the Russian MoD reads as follows:

“As part of deconfliction exchange, information has been received from the US side that on November 3 a convoy of American servicemen…was fired upon from the territory controlled by the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army.”

This follows an incident last month which involved American troops in the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobani coming under Turkish artillery fire.

Since Trump’s declared US withdrawal from the border areas due to Erdogan’s Turkish military incursion, American and Russian convoys have been seen passing each other on the roadways. 

Gregor Peter@L0gg0l

Picture pretty much sums up situation in N. Syria: Encounter of U.S and Russian military convoy on M4 highway pic.twitter.com/iiedQFJUzY (via @OmerOzkizilcik)

View image on Twitter

Subsequent to that mid-October incident Defense Secretary Mark Esper told reporters that US forces had permission to fire back if fired upon.

Multiple media reports have lately documented the presence of former ISIS and al-Qaeda fighters swelling the ranks of Turkish-backed Sunni militias currently serving as the main ground force for Erdogan’s ‘Operation Peace Spring’.

end
Iran

Iran Boasts It Doubled Uranium Enrichment Capacity On 40th Anniversary Of US Embassy Takeover

Iran has marked its 40th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolutionary takeover of the US embassy in Tehran and subsequent over year-long hostage crisis by announcing another major breach of the nuclear deal on Monday, as previously promised amid the continued Washington sanctions regimen, essentially now doubling its enrichment capacity.

Reuters reports “Iran is launching a new array of 30 advanced IR-6 centrifuges on Monday, the country’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi told state television,” which brings the total number to 60 IR-6 advanced centrifuges, in violation of its commitments under the 2015 JCPOA.

“Today, we are witnessing the launch of the array of 30 IR-6 centrifuges,” Saleh said, adding that it underscores the Islamic Republic’s “capacity and determination”.

 

Iranian missile exhibition, via Newsweek.

An IR-6 centrifuge is capable of enriching uranium ten times faster than limits set under the JCPOA, and crucially according to USA Today:

The move cuts into the one-year time limit that most experts estimate Tehran would need to have enough material to build a nuclear weapon, although there is little evidence to indicate that Iran is trying to weaponize its nuclear materials.

Though the US and its allies like Israel have long assumed Tehran is bent on acquiring nuclear weapons as soon as possible, a month ago Ayatollah Khamenei reaffirmed the supreme leader’s official condemnation of nukes, after prior top clerics of the regime previously declared them ‘un-Islamic’.

“Nuclear science is beneficial but since it’s not been coupled with love for humanity, it led to nuclear disasters. Despite having the ability to develop nukes, we firmly and bravely avoided it, for building and keeping nukes, like using them, is haram,” Ayatollah Khamenei said before a group of the nation’s top scientists in early October.

 

American embassy personnel were held hostage for 444 days. Monday marks four decades since the Islamic revolution and the US embassy takeover. 

Over the past many weeks the West has been focused on rapid developments in northern Syria, with the Iran nuclear issue seeming to take a back-burner, and largely absent from the headlines; however, many analysts have pointed out that Trump’s latest “secure the oil” in Syria policy is actually precisely toward blocking ‘Iranian expansion’ in the region.

end
Iran/IRAQ
There have been protests in Iraq for the past week. The citizens want the ousting of Prime Minister Adbul Mahdi.  Iran sent in the leader of the Revolutionary Guard, Soleimani trying to quell the rioting.
Well it seems that the protesters were very upset at seeing Iranian personnel on their soil and so on Sunday, Iraqi citizens torched the Irtanian consulate over foreign interference.
(zerohedge)

Watch As Iraq Protesters Torch Iranian Consulate Over ‘Foreign Interference’ 

As anti-corruption protests in Lebanon and Iraq have raged and quickly turned into massive anti-government protests, with the latter much fiercer and more violent, now with over 250 Iraqis killed and nearly 10,000 wounded, there’s growing fears that in both countries a Syria-style broader proxy war could emerge.

Iran has accused the US and Israel for stoking unrest, while Washington and Tel Aviv officials see ‘Iranian expansion’ and meddling as the true culprit. It appears that some Iraqis agree, given the Iranian consulate in the city of Karbala came under attack Sunday, in the latest sign of public backlash over perceived Iranian control of Baghdad political leaders.

“Protesters scaled the consulate’s walls late Sunday while hauling an Iraqi flag. Security forces fired rubber bullets to disperse protesters who were throwing Molotov cocktails over the wall,” The Wall Street Journal reported based on local video of the attack.

 

Iranian consulate in Karbala on fire during Sunday protests, via Reuters.

It came after last week Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed foreign powers for unrest gripping Iraq and Lebanon. “I recommend those who care in Iraq and Lebanon remedy the insecurity and turmoil created in their countries by the US, the Zionist regime, some western countries, and the money of some reactionary countries,” Khamenei stated using his official social media accounts.

This also as Iran has been blamed for intervening to prevent the ouster, via forced resignation, of Iraq’s Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi amid the popular protests and mayhem.

We reported last week that during a surprise visit by Qassem Soleimani, the head of the IRGC international offshot Quds Force, the powerful military chief intervened by asking al-Amiri and his Iranian-backed militias to continue supporting Abdul Mahdi. Several senior Iraqi officials have told reporters that Soleimani showed up at a secret meeting in Baghdad on Wednesday that was supposed to be run by Abdul Mahdi, according to Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

Soleimani and many of the militia leaders who are loyal to Amiri raised concerns at the meeting that ousting Abdul Mahdi could weaken the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group of mostly Iran-backed Shiite militias who have allies in the Iraq’s parliament and government.

Watch as the Iranian consulate in the central Iraqi city of Karbala, south of Baghdad is torched:

And now, with his position firmly in place for now, PM Abdul Mahdi on Sunday issued a public message calling on demonstrators to “return the country to normal” — but made no mention of plans to step down.

“Threatening the oil interests and blocking roads leading to Iraq’s ports is causing big losses exceeding billions of dollars,” he said, according to the WSJ.

Anti-Iran anger has been particularly fierce in the restive southern provinces, given the important Shia pilgrimage centers in places like Karbala, where it’s believed Iran’s influence is felt most strongly and directly.

Indeed the ‘proxy war’ nature of what’s unfolding in Iraq is increasingly tanking center stage, as President Trump himself tweeted about Monday morning:

Ben Norton

@BenjaminNorton

Donald Trump is retweeting Saudi regime propaganda cheering over an attack on the Iranian consulate in Iraq.

Trump obviously doesn’t read Arabic, so it’s clear someone sent him this tweet from a Saudi monarchy-funded anti-Iran propaganda outlet so he could amplify it

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

For example the Iranian consulate in Basra was torched by a mob last year, in events very similar to Sunday’s incident. During Sunday night’s unrest which saw the consulate in Karbala set ablaze, at least three protesters were killed by security forces.

Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militias have reportedly been increasingly involved in assisting security forces in putting down the popular unrest which has swept the country – by some accounts even deploying snipers.

 END
UKRAINE
Corruption galore in the Ukraine: now Ukraine is firing the prosecutor who discussed the Bidens with Giuliani
(Reuters)
and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;

Exclusive: Ukraine to fire prosecutor who discussed Bidens with Giuliani – source

KIEV (Reuters) – Ukraine plans to fire the prosecutor who led investigations into the firm where Joe Biden’s son served on the board, a central figure in the activity at the heart of impeachment proceedings against U.S. President Donald Trump, a source told Reuters.

Deputy Head of the Department of International Legal Cooperation of the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine Kostiantyn Kulyk attends a news conference in Kiev, Ukraine April 11, 2019. REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi

Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani has acknowledged meeting the prosecutor, Kostiantyn Kulyk, to discuss accusations against the Bidens.

The decision to sideline someone who played an important role in Giuliani’s efforts to find out damaging information about the Bidens comes as Ukraine has tried to avoid getting drawn into a partisan fight in Washington.

Trump’s Democratic opponents have launched impeachment proceedings, arguing that Trump abused his power by pressing Ukraine to investigate the Bidens to hurt the former vice president, front-runner to challenge him in the 2020 election.

The source said a decision had been taken to fire Kulyk for failing to show up for an exam that all employees of the General Prosecutor’s Office have been ordered to pass to keep their jobs during a clean-up of the prosecution service.

Prosecutor General Ruslan Ryaboshapka has already fired more than 400 prosecutors, or around a third of all staff.

Some prosecutors have told Reuters that many of those sacked had refused to sit the exam in protest at what they see as a purge designed to cement new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s political control of the service.

Zelenskiy has said the overhaul is essential because the office is widely distrusted by Ukrainians and had been seen as a political tool for the well-connected to punish their enemies.

Trump discussed investigating the Bidens during a July 25 phone call with Zelenskiy. Trump’s Democratic opponents have launched impeachment proceedings, arguing that Trump abused power to press Ukraine to hurt a political foe. Trump calls the investigation a witch hunt and denies wrongdoing.

Reuters was unable to reach Kulyk for comment. He was not present at a home address where Reuters has spoken to him in the past.

Kulyk did not show up for the mandatory exam, which was imposed last month, the source said.

He also did not file an official justification for missing it, as other prosecutors have done, and will consequently be dismissed, the source said. His dismissal will take place by Dec. 31, if not earlier.

Earlier this year, Kulyk compiled a seven-page dossier on the business activities of Hunter Biden in Ukraine, two sources told Reuters.

Reuters could not independently verify the existence of such a dossier but Kulyk detailed his investigations into areas of interest to Trump and Giuliani in an interview with a pro-Trump columnist for The Hill newspaper in April.

Kulyk has been responsible for formally investigating a criminal case related to the founder of Ukrainian energy company Burisma. Biden’s son sat on the company’s board from 2014-2019.

In a recent interview, Giuliani told Reuters he met Kulyk in Paris. He said at that meeting Kulyk echoed allegations that in 2016 Biden had tried to have Ukraine’s then-chief prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, fired to stop him investigating Burisma. Biden has accused Giuliani of peddling “false, debunked conspiracy theories” for repeating these allegations.

“(Kulyk) was another prosecutor somewhat lower level who told me the same thing: that there was collusion and Biden had (the) prosecutor fired to kill case on (his) son and Burisma,” Giuliani told Reuters.

Giuliani did not respond to a request for comment on the decision to fire Kulyk. A spokesman for Joe Biden declined comment.

Kulyk told Reuters in October that he had been investigating Burisma’s founder, Mykola Zlochevsky, for around two years.

Reuters could not independently verify the extent of Kulyk’s involvement, but a source close to the energy company saw a spike in activity by Kulyk in regards to Burisma after Giuliani’s interest in the company and the Bidens had been conveyed to Kulyk’s then superior, Lutsenko.

In late January, Kulyk sent Zlochevsky the first of several summons for questioning, documents seen by Reuters showed.

Zlochevsky has not commented on the summons or an announcement by Ryaboshapka in October that his office was reviewing a series of investigations linked to Zlochevsky.

Slideshow (3 Images)

In April, Kulyk gave an interview to the columnist John Solomon at The Hill newspaper in Washington. In that article, Kulyk said he and other prosecutors were investigating allegations concerning Shokin’s dismissal.

Kulyk told The Hill that Ukrainian officials had unsuccessfully tried to pass on evidence on this and other probes to the U.S. authorities before looking for other people, including Giuliani, to present their findings.

Additional reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt and Karen Freifeld in Washington and Maria Tsvetkova in Kiev; Writing by Matthias Williams and Polina Ivanova; Editing by Peter Graff

6.Global Issues

Two commentaries indicating global growth is rapidly declining:

i. plunge in global shipping container rates

ii) freight railroad traffic plummets 8% in the USA in Oct

The Plunge In Global Shipping Container Rates Means The Economic Rebound Will Have To Wait 

The global/US economy is in trouble, and more specifically, S&P500 earnings deterioration will likely end up in a recession in the next several quarters.

US major equity indexes are hitting new highs, as Treasury yields have soared this weak on the idea that a 2016-style rebound in the global economy is imminent.

Earlier in the week, UBS strategist Francois Trahan blew apart the imminent global/US rebound narrative and said: “The earnings landscape has already deteriorated and will likely get worse: The consensus year-over-year growth rate in S&P500 forward earnings is down to a mere 1% from a peak of 23% in September of 2018. Forward earnings are already contracting in the Midcap and Smallcap indices…If history were a perfect guide, the S&P500 would trough in Q2 of 2020 and rebound after that. Should the economy bottom in Q4 of 2020, as interest rates suggest, then history argues, the S&P500 would begin to price in a sustainable recovery sometime between April and August of 2020…PMIs Argue That Forward EPS Growth Will Trend Lower For Another 6 Months.”

President Trump’s non-stop fake trade news tweeting has indeed decoupled the market from focusing on worsening macro and fundamentals.

Teddy Vallee, CIO of Pervalle Global, has spotted an alarming downtrend in the Freightos 40 ft. Global Shipping Container Rate.

Vallee has likely found an accurate barometer of global economic activity, now plunging in the last two months.

“The move in container shipping rates is consistent with the continued deterioration in raw industrial commodities, China’s official PMI, China’s steel PMI, as well as market internals such as industrials relative to the S&P500,” Vallee said.

Freightos 40 ft. Global Shipping Container Rate started to trough in 1H19. The narrative back then was the global/US economy would rebound in 4Q19 and soar in 2020. But with 61 days left in 4Q, macroeconomic headwinds continue to mount across the world as global container rates plunge to new lows on the year, suggesting a global/US economic revival is nowhere to be found.

With no signs of a global recovery, market participants will once again be jawboned back to reality, or as some have called it: a ‘macro matters’ event — the only question is finding the trigger that brings everybody out of the fake trade news daze spurred by the Trump administration.

end

Freight Railroad Traffic Plunged 8% At The End Of October

US freight railroads, which along with Class 8 trucking have long been used as a gauge of the country’s economic health, continue to show declines in traffic.

Freight railroads logged 513,147 carloads and intermodal units during the week ending October 26, according to data from the Association of American Railroads reported on by Progressive RailroadingThis marks an 8.8% decline compared to the same week last year. 

Total carload traffic for the week was down 9.4% to 243,321 units and intermodal volume fell 8.3% to 269,826 containers and trailers.

The AAR tracks 10 carload commodity groups on a weekly basis – none of them showed growth for the week. Coal fell 14,797 carloads, grain fell 2,512 carloads and metallic ores and metals fell 2,064 carloads.

Canadian and Mexican railroads also reported traffic declines for the week. Canadian railroads were down 7.9% and intermodal units were down 3.6%. Mexican railroads logged 19,573 carloads for the week, down 1.1% and intermodal units fell 5.6%.

As the report notes, in aggregate:

  • U.S. railroads reported a combined 22,300,581 carloads and intermodal units, down 4.3 percent;
  • Canadian railroads reported a combined 6,523,922 carloads, containers and trailers, up 0.7 percent; and
  • Mexican railroads reported a combined 1,625,137 carloads and intermodal containers and trailers, down 2.8 percent.

Total North American rail volume for the YTD 43 week period is still 3.2% lower than 2018. Recall, we wrote earlier this month that Class 8 orders for September had also crashed 71%, with the two indicatorsmarking an obvious slowdown in the country’s economic productivity that everybody except Jim Cramer and Jerome Powell are able to see.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1168 UP .0007 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.42 UP 0.243 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2928   UP   0.0001  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3152 UP .0019 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 7 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1168 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 17.29 POINTS OR 0.58% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 446.54 POINTS OR 1.65%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,31%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 446.54 POINTS OR 1.65%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.29 POINTS OR 0.58%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 31% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 87/27  POINTS OR 0.33%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1512.00

silver:$18.13-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.75% !!! UP 4 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.24 UP 5  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.27 UP 4 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.23% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.18%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.31%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:,0.99 UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 68 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.35% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.34% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1149  DOWN     .0012 or 12 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.57 UP .430 OR YEN DOWN 43  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2909 DOWN .0015 POUND DOWN 15  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 10 basis points to 1.3144

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0304    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0293  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7294 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.18%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.78 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.27 UP 8 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.34 UP 11  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 77.18  1.06%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 178.69 POINTS OR 1.38%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 83.3 POINTS 1.10%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 89.10 POINTS or 0.96%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 380.94 POINTS OR 1.66%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.20 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 62.73 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:  63.37  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.13 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 13 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.35 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.52//

 

 

BRENT :  62.12

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.78..plus 7 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.27..plus 8 basis pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1128 ( DOWN 33   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.61 UP .464 (YEN DOWN 46 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.55 UP 31 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2880 DOWN 44  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7391

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.54   DOWN 0.04 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3152 DOWN 19 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0303  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0347 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.36%

 

The Dow closed UP 114.75 POINTS OR 0.42%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 46.80 POINTS OR 0.56%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.67 CLOSED UP .37

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.890%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Soaring Investor “Greed” Sends Dow To New Record High Despite Momo Massacre

Why are stocks soaring? Simple – it’s the fun-durr-mentals, stupid!

Source: Bloomberg

And everyone is chasing it now…

Chinese stocks all ended the day higher, but the afternoon session saw some giveback…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were all higher on the day, UK’s FTSE the laggard, Italy leader…

Source: Bloomberg

European equities surged to their highest level since August 2015 as miners to automakers advanced on optimism that U.S.-China trade talks are progressing.

Source: Bloomberg

Major US equities indices were all higher (Dow joining the party at record highs) with Trannies outperforming (NOTE – the indices basically did nothing from the US cash open onwards – except Trannies)…

 

 

Futures show the action a little better with the US-China deal headlines sparking a pre-open ramp to record highs and then once Europe closed, stocks faded…

 

Defensives were straight down from the open as Cyclicals gapped open (short-squeeze – see below)

Source: Bloomberg

Momo stocks were massacred, extending Friday’s plunge… this is the biggest 2-day drop since the peak of the quant quake in September…

Source: Bloomberg

As Michael Krause (@michaelbkrause) noted so succinctly: “Junk stock short squeeze day. L/S momentum falling apart, value not picking up the slack, and most volatile stocks killing it… The pious quants with a long-term research-driven view are off-sides today.”

And sure enough, “most shorted” stocks ripped at the open, thanks to yet more trade deal rumors…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And as momo melts down, stocks soar to record highs but Bloomberg’s SMART money flow indicator signals the big boys are not playing along…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all higher on the day with the long-end notably underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Which sent the yield curve notably steeper – erasing the post-Powell flattening…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y yields spiked 8bps today but if the quant quake is anything to go by, the yield should be soaring back near 3.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, the market expects just 1.2 more rate-cuts by the end of 2020 – dramatically less dovish than the 5 cuts expected in early September (2 of which have been delivered)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar surged back to the lows of FOMC day…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin and Ethereum trod water since Friday with Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

PMs were lower on the day, copper and crude gained but the latter gave plenty back after Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI held on to its $56 handle but couldn’t hold the $57 intraday…

And while gold slipped, it remains above $1500…

Gold/Oil is back at the upper end of its long-term rang again…

Source: Bloomberg

Since Powell’s dovish inflation comments, gold remains the leader – despite stocks surge today…

 

And finally, investors haven’t been this ‘Extremely Greedy’ since 2017…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/this morning/USA

 

Dow Futures Surge To Record Highs On Yet Another “US-China Trade Deal Close” Headline

This is becoming utter farce…

Having ramped overnight to record highs, Dow futures just exploded higher on the back of a headline reporting that a White House Official tells Politico a deal with China is almost there…”

And the algos panic-bid stocks…

 

What happens if there is a deal? Priced in? Or, if there isn’t?

Then: late morning

Market Rallies As Chinese Media Talks Down ‘Phase 1’ Deal

While yuan is weakening following SCMP headlines talking down the US-China trade deal, it appears the US equity algos only saw one thing ‘deal’ and rallied…

SCMP reports that:

“Chinese government its reportedly taking a cautious approach in choosing a venue for the US-China Phase 1 deal signing and will avoid giving too many concessions according to sources and diplomatic observers…

And MNI adds

China will not fully acquiesce to key U.S. trade demands in areas such as intellectual property rights protection…

…China’s Ministry of Commerce also cast doubt on claims President Trump that China could buy up to $40 billion to $50 billion of American agricultural products a year, noting that the peak for Chinese imports of U.S. farm goods was $29 billion in 2013.”

But “investors” bought US stocks on that?

 

Let’s see what happens next

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Factory orders slump in Sept

(zerohedge)

US Factory Orders Slump In September, Biggest Contraction Since July 2016

After August’s contraction, Factory Orders in September were expected to accelerate their decline, but the 0.6% MoM drop was more than expected. This sent the year-over-year contraction in factory orders down to -3.5% – the worst since July 2016…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally the final durable goods orders print for September worsened, dropping 1.2% MoM and down 4.0% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, everyone assumes that September was the inflection point and that October (and now November) will be awesome because of trade-deal hope?

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Total debt of the USA surpasses $23 trillion. If one is to take a 12 month differential we witness a change of 1.3 trillion dollars which is the true deficit. The difference is due to student and auto loans which is also an asset on the books so it is not included as a deficit entry.

(zerohedge)

Total US Debt Surpasses $23 Trillion For The First Time

After total US debt was stuck at $22 trillion for five months, from March until August, until a deal was cobbled together by Congress to once again raise the debt ceiling, the obligations of the Federal government have soared fast and furious, and in just the past three months, total US debt increased by $1 trillion, surpassing $23 trillion as of Halloween 2019: truly a scary testament to America’s insatiable thirst for debt.

Putting this increase in context: since Nov 8, 2016, when Donald Trump was elected US president, and when US debt was $19.8 trillion, the federal debt has increased by $3.2 trillion

Going further back, to November 2008 when Barack Obama won the presidency, total US debt was $10.6 trillion. Since then it has more than doubled by $12.4 trillion.

Going further back is largely meaningless, because as the two chart above show, under just the last two US presidents, total US debt has increased by 115%, to a record $23 trillion.

Over the same period, US GDP increased (in nominal dollars) from $14.8 trillion to $21.5 trillion, a far more modest increase of $6.7 trillion. This also means that over the past 12 years, or the presidency of Obama and Trump, it took $1.85 in debt to generate $1.00 in GDP growth, the highest such ratio on record.

One other startling observation: whereas US debt prior to the financial crisis of 2008 was rising at a fairly aggressive pace, extrapolating current total US debt based on where it would have been had it not been for the Fed’s housing and credit bubble, indicates a level just around $16 trillion. Instead, debt is currently at $23 trillion. This suggests that it has cost the US an additional $7 trillion in debt, or 44% of what debt would have been had it not been for the Fed’s serial bubble creation just to paper over the consequences of the global financial crisis.

The ominous side effects of this record debt pile up are starting to be felt in the US budget as well: in fiscal 2019, the government spent just shy of $600 billion on interest payments equivalent to nearly the entire US Medicare budget, and more than the amount spent on the combined costs of education, agriculture, transportation and housing.

Furthermore, as we reported last week, the US debt is expected to increase by well over $1 trillion annually for the foreseeable future: while deficit for 2019 came in just under $1 trillion, at $984 billion, it is expected to grow by over $1 trillion each year for the foreseeable future.

“Reaching $23 trillion in debt on Halloween is a scary milestone for our economy and the next generation, but Washington shows no fear,” said Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the conservative Peter Peterson Foundation. “Piling on debt like this is especially unwise and unnecessary in a strong economy.”

While the key drivers of US government spending are mandatory programs such as Social Security, Medicare and anti-poverty programs, a major fiscal stimulus enacted by the Trump administration – which as we reported yesterday failed to achieve any sustainable increase in US GDP – has grown the deficit considerably.

One final piece of bad news: according to the CBO’s baseline forecast, the US debt picture is dismal and only set to get far worse. The chart below hardly needs any explanation.

 

Fed’s Balance Sheet Soars Above $4 Trillion: Up $250 Billion Since Repo Crisis

If it seems like it was just over a month ago that the repo market suddenly suffered its biggest cardiac arrest since the financial crisis, when overnight repo rates exploded from 2% to 10% in an instant with no observable news or catalyst on the 11th anniversary of Lehman’s collapse…

… and only immediate Fed intervention prevented a full-blown financial crisis, it’s because it was.

As we have already discussed, we now know that said crisis was precipitated by JPMorgan quietly and steadily withdrawing liquidity from money markets

 

Source: Monday Morning Macro

… while at the same time Jamie Dimon’s bank reduced the cash it has on deposit at the Federal Reserve, from which it might have lent to other banks and prevent the repo crisis, by $158 billion in the year through June, a 57% decline, as JPM faced the highest G-SIB surcharges of all US banks due to the specific composition of its balance sheet.

Of course, whether this was indeed the reason behind JPM’s liquidity withdrawal, or if Jamie Dimon strategically shrank the bank’s available liquidity in order to incite a repo market crisis (the same way some speculate Lehman was sacrificed to launch QE1 and the global financial bailout), there is no way of knowing for sure – we can hope that Elizabeth Warren’s questions to Steve Mnuchin will provide some additional insight, although we doubt it – but what we do know is that in response to September’s repocalypse, not only did the NY Fed launch overnight and term repos to inject liquidity into the market, it also started “Not QE”, or “Quasi QE”, which is never ever to be confused with “QE 4” (as that would suggest the US economy is now in a recession and the Fed is panicking to prevent a market crash). Why? Because whereas the narrative never touched on JPM and its explicit liquidity withdrawal, pundits were all too eager to point to the drop in Fed reserves to “only” $1.3 trillion as the culprit behind September’s fireworks.

Fast forward to today, when for JPMorgan and all other US commercial banks (which happen to own the Fed), it is mission accomplished: not only did the Fed’s excess reserves spike to $1.5 trillion, a level which the experts say is far more suitable for the US financial system (as a reminder, before the financial crisis the level of excess reserves was precisely $0), but as of last week, the Fed’s balance sheet is now back over $4 trillion (at roughly the same time total US debt hit $23 trillion for the first time), surging over $250 billion since September, and one third of the way to regaining it’s all time highs of $4.5 trillion.

And since the Fed’s POMO will continue well into 2020, expect the previous all time highs in the Fed’s balance sheet to be surpassed soon. Just don’t call it QE.

Meanwhile, if one strips away the superficial debate whether the US repo market is fixed or still broken, if interbank plumbing remains clogged up, if JPM caused the September repo crisis (on purpose) or if the dollar funding crisis was due to a drop in bank reserves, and if this is QE or not QE, what is really taking place just behind the scenes is very simple: global central banks, from the ECB, to China, and now to the Fed, are once again flooding the world with liquidity. In fact, the only reason the S&P is up 23% YTD is – drumroll – a $4 trillion surge in the global money supply as shown in the chart below.

Finally, for those – who like the IMF – say central banks are tapped out, a recent report from Nomura shows that whereas some central banks – such as the ECB and BOJ – have already tried everything, there are those like the Fed and the PBOC which still have some ammo left…

… which means that the can will be kicked at least a little bit longer before central banks use up all their available means to extend and pretend, and the market finally collapses.

Malaysia rejects Goldman’s offer of 2 billion dollars in the lMDB scandal
(zerohedge)

Malaysia Rejects Goldman’s Offer Of “Less Than $2 Billion” To Settle 1MDB Suit

In an interview with the Financial Times, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said he’s not ready to kneel down and accept Goldman Sachs’s first offer in its attempt to settle a civil case stemming from the bank’s involvement in the 1MDB scandal, one of the biggest financial frauds to rock the region in modern history.

As was rumored in earlier reports, Goldman offered Malaysia “less than $2 billion” to settle the suit. In a series of three bond offerings, Goldman raised $6.5 billion for 1MDB, a sovereign wealth fund that was supposed to finance major public works projects across Malaysia.

But the money never made it that far.

A group of senior government officials, including former Prime Minister Najib Razak, led by shadowy financier Jho Low, looted billions from 1MDB and hid it from the people of Malaysia. How much did they take? The DoJ put the number at $4 billion; Malaysia believes its closer to $6 billion.

Mahathir Mohamad

Mohamad said that Malaysia’s negotiators (led by AG Tommy Thomas) are still talking with Goldman.

“Goldman Sachs has offered something like less than $2bn,” Mahathir Mohamad told the Financial Times in an interview on Friday. “We are not satisfied with that amount so we are still talking to them…If they respond reasonably we might not insist on getting that $7.5bn.”

And he’s not stopping there. Mohamad said Malaysia has also reached out to DB and UBS over their involvement with 1MDB, as it strives to work with whatever banks it can to recoup any money stolen from 1MDB. DB has also found itself caught up in the criminal end of the scandal: Malaysia is investigating the recidivist German lender over whether it violated AML statutes while raising $1.2 billion for 1MDB back in 2014 (a deal that came after offerings underwritten by Goldman). UBS has been reprimanded by the Swiss government over transactions related to 1MDB that the bank helped facilitate.

Goldman earned more than $600 million in fees from the 1MDB deal, and Malaysia has made it clear that it wants every cent of that money returned.

But US prosecutors have already seized billions of dollars in assets pertaining to the case. On Thursday, reports emerged claiming that Low, now a fugitive believed to be hiding in China under the Communist Party’s protection, has settled a flurry of civil suits with the DoJ, agreeing to hand over more than $900 million. Mohamad said Malaysia isn’t in contact with Low, who admitted no guilt in his deal with the US. Malaysia doesn’t know where Low is: “He’s not staying in any one place.”

“The amount [Mr Low embezzled from 1MDB] is much bigger,” said Mr Mahathir. “If he had the full amount we would be very happy…We are still going after the rest of the money.”

“The DoJ has indicated that, if we can prove claim of ownership, then we will be able to get the money for ourselves.”

Goldman’s strong earnings over the past two quarters have helped ease investors’ worries about 1MDB, and the scandal has largely faded into the background since late last year, when revelations that senior Goldman execs, including Lloyd Blankfein, had personally intervened to greenlight the 1MDB deals despite numerous red flags from compliance. But we imagine that many insiders are waiting for the next shoe to drop. Right now, prosecutors have the leverage. Goldman just might get stuck paying the bulk of Malaysia’s ask.

Both Malaysia and the US have accused senior Goldman bankers of bribing corrupt Malaysian politicians to secure the bond deal business for the bank.

END
The next crisis to hit the USA: bankruptcies in the farming community. Bankruptcies have soared by 24% this year.
(zerohedge)

The Next Shoe In The Farm Crisis Drops: Bankruptcies Soar 24%

The American Farm Bureau (AFB) warned Wednesday that farm bankruptcies are entering a parabolic move.

The farm crisis, as we’ve pointed out, is only accelerating and will likely be on par with the farm disaster that was seen in the early 1980s.

President Trump’s farm bailouts, given to farmers earlier this year, appears to be failing at this moment in time, as a tsunami in farm bankruptcies is sweeping across the country.

With record-high debt, collapsing farm income, and depressed commodity prices, US farmers are dropping like flies as there’s no end in sight in the 15-month long trade war.

AFB said farm bankruptcies for the 12 months ending in September, totaled an astonishing 580 filings, up 24% YoY.

The number of Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies [580 filings] for the period was the highest since 676 filings were recorded in 2011. For 3Q19, farm bankruptcies were slightly lower, down 2% YoY.

“Total bankruptcies filed by state vary significantly, from no bankruptcies in some states to more than 20 filings in others. Bankruptcy filings were the highest in Wisconsin at 48 filings, followed by 37 filings in Georgia, Nebraska, and Kansas. Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and West Virginia all experienced Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings at or above 10-year highs,” AFB wrote.

AFB’s next chart is YoY change in farm bankruptcies over the 12 months, which shows bankruptcies accelerated the greatest in Oklahoma, Georgia, California, Iowa, and Kansas.

The next chart from AFB outlines how bankruptcy filings over the previous 12 months ending in September, jumped in every major region across the country. Some of the most significant increases were seen in the Midwest, up 40% over the period.

Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies are expected to increase through the next several quarters. This could be problematic to President Trump as the 2020 election year begins. Many of the bankruptcies are occurring in election battleground states like Wisconsin. 

end
Trump is furious with California Governor Newsome:  He has now threatened to remove federal support as California fires rage on.
(zerohedge)

‘Get Your Act Together’: Trump Threatens To Pull Federal Support As California Fires Rage

As Californians grapple with this year’s annual fire season, President Trump has a message for Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom; clean up your act.

“The Governor of California, @GavinNewsom, has done a terrible job of forest management. I told him from the first day we met that he must “clean” his forest floors regardless of what his bosses, the environmentalists, DEMAND of him,” Trump tweeted on Sunday.

Trump then threatened to withhold federal money, which California receives every time they declare a state of emergency.

“Must also do burns and cut fire stoppers,” he continued. “Every year, as the fire’s [sic] rage & California burns, it is the same thing-and then he comes to the Federal Government for $$$ help. No more. Get your act together Governor.

“You don’t see close to the level of burn in other states…But our teams are working well together in putting these massive, and many, fires out. Great firefighters! Also, open up the ridiculously closed water lanes coming down from the North. Don’t pour it out into the Pacific Ocean. Should be done immediately. California desperately needs water, and you can have it now!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

..Every year, as the fire’s rage & California burns, it is the same thing-and then he comes to the Federal Government for $$$ help. No more. Get your act together Governor. You don’t see close to the level of burn in other states…But our teams are working well together in…..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….putting these massive, and many, fires out. Great firefighters! Also, open up the ridiculously closed water lanes coming down from the North. Don’t pour it out into the Pacific Ocean. Should be done immediately. California desperately needs water, and you can have it now!

California state Senator Mike McGuire tweeted “Total crap” in response to Trump, claiming that “Approx 57% of CA’s forest land is owned by the Fed Gov’t. Only 3% is owned by State/local gov’t. THE FEDS HAVE CUT their forest budget by hundreds of millions.”

Mike McGuire

@ilike_mike

Total crap. Facts First: Approx 57% of CA’s forest land is owned by the Fed Gov’t. Only 3% is owned by State/local gov’t. THE FEDS HAVE CUT their forest budget by hundreds of millions. CA has increased ours massively. Show some empathy for survivors, @realDonaldTrump https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1190995034163892226 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Governor of California, @GavinNewsom, has done a terrible job of forest management. I told him from the first day we met that he must “clean” his forest floors regardless of what his bosses, the environmentalists, DEMAND of him. Must also do burns and cut fire stoppers…..

After more than a week battling around a dozen blazes throughout the state, fire crews have most of the incidents over 70% contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. That said, first responders have been slowed down by reports of drones being operated in their airspace.

Two separate instances of drone flights disrupted water-dropping helicopters from attempting structure protection in the nearby city of Santa Paula, Ventura County Fire Department spokesman Mike DesForges said.

The helicopters had to set down for 30 to 40 minutes each time,” DesForges said. “The drones are difficult to see and they can be pushed by winds very easily. If they strike one of our helicopters, they could cause it to crash, and if not, we would still need to land that helicopter to perform repairs.” –NPR

On Thursday night, the Maria Fire  broke out near the cities of Ventura and Oxnard to the north of Los Angeles. It is currently 50% contained after burning around 9,400 acres. Following the new blaze, Newsom expanded the state of emergency in Sonoma and Los Angeles.

 

Maria fire (circled)

ABC News

@ABC

Firefighters in Santa Paula, CA, battle the , the state’s newest wildfire, which exploded overnight and forced thousands of evacuations. https://abcn.ws/32cUZbG

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Shant Nazaryan@Shant_Nazaryan

My bitch go loco
Maria, Maria, Maria!

Embedded video

To the north, the Kincade Fire in Sonoma County has burned over 77,000 acres and is 76% contained. Over 4,500 fire personnel battled the blaze east of Geyserville.

Bloomberg TicToc

@tictoc

WATCH: A Boeing 747 dropped fire retardant on California’s Kincade fire that has burned 75,000+ acres.
Governor @GavinNewsom has declared a statewide emergency

Embedded video

“They’re still doing a lot of work in those hot spots, and there are still a lot of utility workers in there trying to get services restored,” said Cal Fire spokesman Cleo Doss. “We’re trying to help the people who have already been released get back into the area.”

According to the San Francisco Chronicle, evacuation orders have been lifted for all but a few locations affecting 1,500 people. During the height of the fire, around 185,000 people were evacuated. The fire has destroyed 372 structures, including 175 homes. Four first responders sustained non-life threatening injuries.

end

Because of the damaging fires, hedge funds who invested in PG and E and Edison are losing big time

(zerohedge)

Hedge Funds Invested In PG&E Lose $4.1 Billion In Just Four Trading Days

California isn’t the only thing that’s burning: hedge funds invested in PG&E are slowly watching their cash go up in smoke.

Investors in the company lost roughly $4.1 billion in the four days after the current blaze in Sonoma County broke out on October 23, according to the Wall Street Journal. Shares rebounded late last week, but are still about 85% lower than their 52 week highs, poking around the mid single digits while hedge funds and equity investors try to analyze numerous bankruptcy outcomes that the company might face.

The company’s market cap has been cut to about $3.4 billion from highs of $37 billion in 2017. Bond prices have fallen as much as 12.5%, which is the biggest decline since it was determined that PG&E equipment set off the campfire in Northern California last November.

The volatility has made it difficult for hedge funds to profit from what is being called the “first major bankruptcy induced by climate change”.

Stephen Byrd, head of utilities research at Morgan Stanley said: “Climate change has had a big impact on investing in California utilities, and the risk of fires is here to stay.”

Among the funds that have invested in PG&E equity or bonds are Abrams Capital Management LP, Baupost Group LLC, Elliott Management Corp. and Värde Partners.

The sell off last week was helped along by the Kincade Fire’s quick spread through the state. An increasing number of wildfire claims against PG&E could easily wipe out the company’s equity and take the company’s junior bondholders with it.

Andrew DeVries, a bond analyst at the research firm CreditSights said: “The number one question for investors is are they on the hook for the Kincade Fire and, if so, how much will that cost. The answer is nobody knows.”

And the uncertainty is putting pressure on negotiations between PG&E’s investors, insurers and existing wildfire victims – pressure that could prevent the company’s plans for exiting bankruptcy.

Bondholders have already pledged billions to the company to pay out wildfire claims, but made the deal contingent upon a provision that the damage from the current fires doesn’t exceed 500 buildings. The Kincade Fire has already damaged 246 structures, as of mid-last week.

An increase in claims could jeopardize the profitable plan of buying up insurers’ claims against PG&E at a discount, a plan that Baupost and other investors are betting on.

PG&E has said that one of its power lines malfunctioned shortly before the Kincade Fire, but the exact cause and any liability associated with it are still unknown. The Kincade Fire started despite PG&E plunging the state into darkness with precautionary “safety” blackouts, which we have reported on extensively here on Zero Hedge.

Since the Kincade Fire started, about $4.4 billion worth of the company’s bonds have traded hands. 296 million common shares have also changed hands. Holders of the bonds are on the hook for paper losses of about $1.4 billion as of the end of last week. Equity holders have taken aggregate losses of about $1.1 billion in the same time period. 

Bonds with the highest annual interest payments are experiencing the most pressure. Hedge funds like Elliot had bought into these bonds in hopes that they could recover as much as 130 cents on the dollar after accounting for past-due interest. These bonds fell as much as 18% to prices as low as 90 cents on the dollar after the Kincade Fire started.

Davidson Kempner Capital Management, a fund that held $767 million of bonds, sold out of the position on Monday. Other fund managers hedged against their bond positions by shorting the company’s equity, one trader said.

Steadfast Capital Management LP said on Wednesday that it lost 1.47% from its investment in PG&E stock in the third quarter, calling it a “terrible decision”.

“This is a powerful example of high-degree-of-difficulty investing and one that, in hindsight, we should have avoided,” the fund said in its letter. 

END

Mish: Chicago Headed For Insolvency, Get The Hell Out Now!

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and the Teachers Union reached agreement on a deal sure to send Chicago over the cliff.

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board blasts Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot for her deal with the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU). The deal will further wreak havoc on the already insolvent school system.

Who will be hurt most?

The WSJ answers the question this way: Union Routs Students in Chicago.

Contract Details

  1. 16% raise over five years (not including raises based on longevity)
  2. Three-year freeze on health insurance premiums
  3. Lower insurance copays
  4. Caps on class sizes
  5. More than 450 new social workers and nurses.
  6. New job protections for substitute teachers who going forward may only be removed after conferring with the union about “performance deficiencies.”
  7. Chicago Public Schools will become a “sanctuary district,” meaning school officials won’t be allowed to cooperate with the Immigration and Customs Enforcement without a court order.
  8. Employees will be allowed 10 unpaid days for personal immigration matters.
  9. Under the new contract, a joint union-school board committee will be convened to “mitigate or eliminate any disproportionate impacts of observations or student growth measures” on teacher evaluations.
  10. Instead of student performance, teachers will probably be rated on more subjective measures, perhaps congeniality in the lunchroom.
  11. The new union contract caps the number of charter-school seats, so no new schools will be able to open without others closing.

Get the Hell Out

The WSJ commented “Michelle Obama the other day complained that white people were leaving the city to escape minorities who are moving in. No, they’re fleeing Chicago’s high taxes and lousy schools—and so are minorities.”

Chicago Public School Bond Ratings

Chart from CPS Credit Ratings.

You can kiss those positive and stable outlooks goodbye. The system is insolvent and this contract will further weaken the outlook.

Bond Rating Comparison

Chart from Wikipedia, yellow highlights mine.

S&P already has CPS bonds in the “highly” speculative area, five steps into its junk ratings.

Pension Spiking

Chicago Teacher’s Pension is based on your years of service and a pension percentage (up to 75%), multiplied by your final average salary. Their union notes “There are ways to increase these factors to enhance your pension or meet eligibility requirements.”

Let’s Discuss Pensions

Wirepoints asks Chicago Teachers Strike: Why is No One Talking About Pensions?

The average retired CPS teacher already receives a pension of nearly $55,000 a year, according to a 2019 FOIA request to the Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund.

However, looking at the pension of an average teacher far understates the true size of CPS pensions. The “average” benefit includes teachers who only worked a few years for CPS, which brings down the average.

To get a more accurate picture of what pensions are really worth, look at career teachers. Over half of all currently retired CPS teachers worked 30 years or more. On average, they receive a $72,000 annual pension and began drawing benefits at age 61.

In comparison, the average annual Social Security payment in Chicago is just $16,000 and the maximum benefit for someone retiring at age 62 is $26,500.

C-O-L-A Cola, la la la Payola

The average career CPS pension will grow by 3 percent, compounded annually, due to the COLA benefits teachers get. That will double a teacher’s annual benefit to over $140,000 in 25 years.

Teacher Contributions

Wirepoints Projections

Those projections were based on the proposed contract. The CTU held out for even more benefits and got them.

Pension Funding Level

The Chicago Tribune notes that the end of 2018, City Hall’s pension funds had only 23% of what they should have.

By 2023, Lightfoot must find an additional $989 million a year for pensions, according to the Tribune’s Hal Dardick and Juan Perez Jr. Thank you, former mayors and aldermen, for promising more pension benefits than Chicagoans could afford.

Who Will Pay?

That one is easy.

  • The kids will suffer because charter schools are reined in, grading standards lowered, and incompetents were given further projections.
  • Taxpayers will face higher property taxes, higher gas taxes, and higher sales taxes with every penny going to pensions.

Get the Hell Out

On October 5, I commented Escape Illinois: Get The Hell Out Now, We Are

Goodbye Illinois. Hello Utah. See my reasons for Utah above.

If you can’t get out of Illinois, do the second best thing, Get the Hell Out of Chicago.

By the way, Chicago is not “headed” for insolvency, it’s already there, but it is just not recognized yet.

END
We are now starting to see bank failures for the first time in two years:
(FDIC)

Failed Bank List

The FDIC is often appointed as receiver for failed banks. This page contains useful information for the customers and vendors of these banks. This includes information on the acquiring bank (if applicable), how your accounts and loans are affected, and how vendors can file claims against the receivership.

This list includes banks which have failed since October 1, 2000. To search for banks that failed prior to those on this page, visit this link: Failures and Assistance Transactions

Click arrows next to headers to sort in Ascending or Descending order.Download Data

Search:
Show
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Showing 1 to 25 of 559 entries
FirstPrevious12345NextLast
Bank Name City ST CERT Acquiring Institution Closing Date Updated Date
City National Bank of New Jersey Newark NJ 21111 Industrial Bank November 1, 2019 November 1, 2019
Resolute Bank Maumee OH 58317 Buckeye State Bank October 25, 2019 October 25, 2019
Louisa Community Bank Louisa KY 58112 Kentucky Farmers Bank Corporation October 25, 2019 October 28, 2019
The Enloe State Bank Cooper TX 10716 Legend Bank, N. A. May 31, 2019 August 22, 2019

END

Uber plunges after another huge loss.  These guys have never been profitable but they certainly destroyed the world’s taxis businesses.

(zerohedge)

Uber Plunges After Another Huge Loss As Gross Booking Miss, $2.85BN EBITDA Burn Forecast

One quarter after Uber tumbled following its first report as a public company, Uber is plunging again, down 5%, after reporting a bigger than expected net loss.

For the third quarter, despite net revenue rising 23% Q/Q to $3.53 billion, and better than the estimated $3.39 billion, Uber reported a 3Q loss per share of 68c, bigger than the estimated loss of 63c, translating to a net loss of $1.162BN, 18% worse than the $986MM a year ago, if modestly better than the $1.45 billion expected.

Looking at the breakdown of the topline, Uber reported the following Q3 numbers:

  • Gross Bookings $16.47 billion, up 29% Y/Y, and missing estimates of $16.70 billion. This is said to be the main reason why the stock is hurting after hours.
  • Uber Eats bookings $3.66 billion, +8% Q/Q, up 73% Y/Y, and also below the estimate of $3.89 billion; in the aftermath of the recent disastrous earnings from GrubHub, investors will be especially worried about this business line.
  • Ridesharing bookings $12.55 billion, +3% Q/Q, up 20% Y/Y, and slightly above the estimate of $12.51 billion

Looking ahead, Uber provided a glimmer of hope that the cash burn may moderate and the company “improved” its full year Adjusted EBITDA guidance by $250 million to a loss of $2.8-2.9 billion, from $2.9-$3.0 billion previously.

However, the biggest concern is that despite the sizable improvement in revenue, the company’s adjusted Ebitda loss of $585 million was still staggering, and while it was a modest 11% improvement quarterly, and better than the estimated EBITDA loss of $805.1 million, it was still 28% greater compared to a year ago, as the business refuses to scale.

As Bloomberg summarizes, “Eats bookings, gross bookings and total active users were all below estimates” and while financial discipline is beginning to assert itself, “investors want those forward-looking estimates to keep going strong.” Alas, so far they are not. And as a result, the stock tumbled as much as 7.5% after hours before recovering some losses.

Which brings us to the right question as the stock tumbles just shy of its post-IPO low: when will the analysts covering the company shift from Buy to, well, reality.

Hipster@Hipster_Trader

Do any of them think it’s a sell now?

View image on Twitter
END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Meet Eric Ciaramella, our initial whistleblower who started the Ukraine Witch hunt. He may also be a Brennan spy who’s job it is to bring down Trump.  Treason?

(zerohedge)

Brennan’s Spy? New Theories Emerge About Trump-Ukraine Whistleblower

As Democrats seek to impeach President Trump over the “high crime” of asking Ukraine to investigate his political opponents, theories have emerged suggesting the whole thing is a ‘six ways from Sunday‘ operation by Intelligence Community holdovers and Establishment Democrats to remove a sitting President who started flying too close to the sun.

After Trump asked his Ukrainian counterpart on July 25 to investigate pro-Clinton Ukrainian meddling in the 2016 US election, and allegations of corruption against Joe Biden and his son Hunter, a CIA officer who worked with the ‘DNC meddler’ and Joe Biden filed a second-hand whistleblower complaint on a recently altered form (which previously allowed only first-hand information).

First, let’s take a deeper look at the whistleblower, reported by investigative reporter Paul Sperry to be Eric Ciaramella (EC)(via RedState’s Elizabeth Vaughn, emphasis ours):

He submitted a whistleblower complaint on August 12th.

He is a registered Democrat.

He is a CIA analyst who specializes in Russia and Ukraine. He ran the Ukraine desk at the National Security Council (NSC) in 2016.

He was detailed over to the NSC in the summer of 2015 and worked for then-National Security Adviser Susan Rice.

He worked for former Vice President Joe Biden when he served as the Obama administration’s “point man” for Ukraine. He may have flown over to Ukraine with Biden on Air Force Two.

He worked for former CIA Director John Brennan and appeared to have been a highly valued employee.

In June 2017, then-National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster appointed EC to be his personal aide.

EC did not have direct knowledge of the July 25th conversation between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It is very possible he learned about the call from NSC Director for European Affairs Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who testified last week before Adam Schiff’s House Intelligence Committee.

EC contacted at least one of Schiff’s staff members prior to filing his complaint. Two of EC’s colleagues from the NSC were hired by Adam Schiff this year, one of whom, Sean Misko, was hired in August.

He was posted to the NSC in the White House’s West Wing in mid-2017 and “left amid concerns about negative leaks to the media. He has since returned to CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.”

EC worked with hyper-partisan Ukrainian-American lawyer and activist Alexandra Chalupa in 2016 to dig up dirt on Trump. (Chalupa’s name will become very familiar as this scandal unravels.) The pro-Hillary Chalupa, a former DNC contractor, has worked in the Clinton administration and has held various staff positions for Democratic lawmakers. Sperry wrote: “Documents confirm the DNC opposition researcher attended at least one White House meeting with Ciaramella in November 2015.  She visited the White House with a number of Ukrainian officials lobbying the Obama administration for aid for Ukraine.”

Sperry reported that “federal records show Biden’s office invited Ciaramella to an October 2016 state luncheon the vice president hosted for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. Other invited guests included Brennan, as well as then-FBI Director James Comey and then-National Intelligence Director James Clapper.  (Sperry: Several U.S. officials told RCI that the invitation that was extended to Ciaramella, a relatively low-level GS-13 federal employee, was unusual and signaled he was politically connected inside the Obama White House.) –RedState

And now he won’t testify, while another witness in the case, Alex Vindman (likely Ciaramella’s source), had to be reprimanded by his superior officer for “inappropriate and partisan behavior in the military.

Charlie Kirk

@charliekirk11

Did you know:

Adam Schiff’s “star witness” Alex Vindman had to be reprimanded by his superior for “inappropriate and partisan behavior in the military”

He’s been a lifelong, partisan operative

I’m sure the MSM won’t report this when they cover Schiff’s impeachment scam

🤔

So, Trump starts asking about Biden and DNC election meddling with Ukraine, establishment loyalists flip out, and a CIA officer who worked with Biden and the ‘meddler’ (Alexandra Chalupa) files a whistleblower complaint which becomes the foundation of the current impeachment proceedings.

Now absorb this brief detour from Wall St. Journal columnist Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., who bluntly describes the fundamental flaw with the impeachment push; the Bidens appear to have engaged in something in Ukraine worth looking into – while Congressional Democrats and their MSM messengers destroyed their own credibility over Russiagate.

Mr. Biden can claim he was uninfluenced by his son’s employment. But his staff knew about the jobThe Ukrainians knew. America’s European allies knew. The World Bank and International Monetary Fund knew. All knew that Burisma had to be pussyfooted around to avoid causing a scandal for Mr. Biden that might mess up the Obama administration’s ability to sustain support for the shaky regime.

This is what made Hunter Biden worth the money Burisma paid him to sit on its board between April 2014 and April 2019. And whatever the reason for firing prosecutor Viktor Shokin, it was decidedly not with the goal of making trouble for Burisma.

Which brings us to the Achilles’ heel of this impeachment if the goal is to bring along a broad public: Democrats’ and the media’s astonishing and studied obliviousness to the bonfire they made of their own credibility with the Russia hoax. Unless I miss my guess, even many Trump-skeptical voters have no interest in giving victory to so corrupt an opposition. –WSJ

And now, the theories:

Given Ciaramella’s rise within the Obama administration intelligence community, radio host Rush Limbaugh frames him as a spy:

“He’s lurking in there in the West Wing as an Obama holdover. He’s essentially a spy for John Brennan, and he’s there to do the dirty work of the deep state.” –Rush Limbaugh

Limbaugh cites journalist Sharyl Attkisson who wrote in response to Sperry’s ‘outing’ of Ciaramella, ” If the reporting is correct, it implies the “whistleblower” could have been worried Trump was getting close to uncovering Democrat links to Ukraine’s interference in US elections in 2016.

And if Ciaramella was a deep-state spy in the West Wing, former FBI employees Peter Strzok and Lisa Page are potentially involved – as pieced together by Fox News contributor and former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino, who starts with an April 25 letter from Senators Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) to Attorney General William Barr asking about cryptic text messages between Strzok and Page in which they discuss someone named “Charlie” who may be “the CI guy.”

Bongino posits that Strzok and Page may be talking about Ciaramella being a “Confidential Informant” (CI), or spy – and notes that Paul Sperry may have dropped a hint in the way he included a “pronunciation note” regarding the whistleblower’s name (pronounced char-a-MEL-ah) may have referred to “Charlie” in the Strzok/Page texts.

Watch:

Bongino goes further, as noted by RedState:

Finally, also discussed in Bongino’s podcast, is an invitation for a series of events sponsored by major Clinton Foundation donor ($25 million) and Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk in the spring of 2016. It looks to be an Ukrainian outreach type of event. Ukrainian member of parliament Olga Bielkova is scheduled to meet with none other than Eric Ciaramella. She hates Trump. (This can be viewed at 22:08 in the video.)

The emerging image of EC shows him to be a hyper-partisan Democrat, well-connected within the ranks of the deep state, who was possibly spying on the Trump White House for the FBI. As voters see the individual behind the whistleblower complaint which has triggered an impeachment inquiry, they will “have thoughts” about the Democrats.

Perhaps we’ll find out more about Ciaramella from John Durham, the prosecutor appointed by Barr to investigate the origins of the “Russiagate” counterintelligence operation against the Trump campaign. As Rush Limbaugh puts it, this is a race between impeachment and a Durham indictment.

end

Attorneys Admit ‘Whistleblower’ Had Contacts With Other Presidential Candidates

President Trump has continued to his attacks on the Democrats’ “impeachment resolution” proceedings, and in particular the so-called ‘whistleblower’ and the irrelevance of his (or her) thoughts and feelings…

” What I said on the phone call with the Ukrainian President is “perfectly” stated. There is no reason to call witnesses to analyze my words and meaning. This is just another Democrat Hoax that I have had to live with from the day I got elected (and before!). Disgraceful!”

The Whistleblower gave false information & dealt with corrupt politician Schiff. He must be brought forward to testify. Written answers not acceptable! Where is the 2nd Whistleblower? He disappeared after I released the transcript. Does he even exist? Where is the informant? Con!”

And, interestingly, this follows a statement from the attorneys representing the whistleblower acknoweledging that their client “has come into contact with presidential candidates from both parties.”

This is the full statement:

In light of the ongoing efforts to mischaracterize whistleblower #1’s alleged “bias” in order to detract from the substance of the complaint, we will attempt to clarify some facts.

First, our client has never worked for or advised a political candidate, campaign, or party.

Second, our client has spent their entire government career in apolitical, civil servant positions in the Executive Branch.

Third, in these positions our client has come into contact with presidential candidates from both parties in their roles as elected officials – not as candidates.

Fourth, the whistleblower voluntarily provided relevant career information to the ICIG in order to facilitate an assessment of the credibility of the complaint.

Fifth, as a result, the ICIG concluded – as is well known – that the complaint was both urgent and credible.

Finally, the whistleblower is not the story.

To date, virtually every substantive allegation has been confirmed by other sources. For that reason the identity of the whistleblower is irrelevant.

*  *  *

Except the motivations of the whistleblower are relevant, as Dan Bongino noted on Fox this morning:

There is no Whistleblower. There is someone with an agenda against Donald Trump. What he was blowing the whistle on didn’t happen. We have the transcript of the call. This is all a farce and no Republican should forget that.”

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

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