NOV 5//RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER: MONSTROUS VOLUME AT THE COMEX ON GOLD AND SILVER CONTRACTS//GOLD DOWN$ 26.00 TO $1482.65//SILVER DOWN $.44 TO $17.62//ANOTHER RECORD COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE RAID//TROUBLES AT DEUTSCHE BANK //TRADE DEFICIT NARROWS SLIGHTLY//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1482,65 DOWN $26.00

 

 

 

Silver:17.62 DOWN 44 CENTS

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1484.50

 

silver:  $17.61

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  10/120

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,508.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/04/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 11/06/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 12
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 24
661 C JP MORGAN 10
737 C ADVANTAGE 90 97
800 C MAREX SPEC 6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 120 120
MONTH TO DATE: 1,044

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 120 NOTICE(S) FOR 12000 OZ (0.3732 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1044 NOTICES FOR 104400 OZ  (3.2472 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR NOV

 

 

10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 50,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 399 for 1,995,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9298 DOWN 95 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9344 down 47

 

Generally when the official/banker sector orchestrates a raid the ultimate goal is the removal of many longs
Tonight’s data will be very interesting:  I do not think that the total open interest will fall much at the comex and we may see the total oi on both exchanges, (comex and London EFP’s) rise.  Let us see
I get the preliminary data at midnight and I will post it right on this spot
Here is tonight’s preliminary oi data plus efp and i guessed right:
my goodness:  a new comex gold record of 691,255 contacts despite the raid and get this: we got a humongous increase in exchange for physicals of 18,020 contracts
total gain of 20,553 contracts despite the 24 dollar loss
silver saw a total OI gain on both exchanges of 687 contracts despite the 44 cent loss in price.
the raid accomplished nothing for our crooked banker/official sector.
your data

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG  SIZED 1668 CONTRACTS FROM 227,782 UP TO 229,450 WITH THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  1250 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1250 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1250 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1250 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.25 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.665     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

 

YESTERDAY WAS THE 4TH DAY IN A ROW THAT THE BANKERS TRIED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF SILVER.  THEY TRIED TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL  AS THEY AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE ( IT ROSE ONE CENT ). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS HOWEVER WERE AGAIN  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG 2918 CONTRACTS. OR 14.59 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV:

4116 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 4116 CONTRACTS) OR 20.58 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1372 CONTRACTS OR 6.860 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  20.58 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.94% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1775.27   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 2019 ISSUANCE:                                                           146.14 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1668, WITH THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1250 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED: 2918 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1250 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1688  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.06 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.148 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 164% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT NOV MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 50,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 7563 CONTRACTS FROM 681,159  TO A NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 688,722 DESPITE THE  $0.75 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING RAID// YESTERDAY// / THE PREVIOUS RECORDS WERE SET ON OCT 28/2019 AT 659,371 AND  NOV 1/ 2019 AT  681,159.

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7728 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  7728 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 688,722,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,291 CONTRACTS: 7563 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7728 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 15,291 CONTRACTS OR 1,529,100 OZ OR 47.56 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $0.75 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 47.56 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE A LITTLE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $0.75) .THEY WERE TOTALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS BOTH EXCHANGES’ OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A MONSTROUS 15,291 CONTRACTS OR 47.56 TONNES..

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 26,714 CONTRACTS OR 2,671,400 oz OR 83.92 TONNES (3 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8904 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 83.92 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 83.92/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.36% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5174.66  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 7563 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($0.75)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7,728 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7,728 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 15,291 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7,728 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 7563 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 50.50 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.75 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  120 notice(s) filed upon for 12000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67  TONNES

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1668 CONTRACTS from 227,782 UP TO 229,450 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  1250:  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1250 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1668  CONTRACTS TO THE 1250 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 2918 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14.59 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1250 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.07 POINTS OR 0.54%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 136.10 POINTS OR 0.49%   /The Nikkei closed UP 401.22 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .17%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9954 /Oil UP TO 56.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.61 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9954 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9970 TRADE TALKS PART ONE CONTINUING////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

i)This is troublesome: New car sales in Japan (world wide sales0 plunges by a whopping 24.9%

(zerohedge)

ii)Soft bank/Japan

Soft bank which took over We Work is an accident waiting to happen.  It’s conglomerate discount balloons to 130 billion USA as investors are coming quite worried

(zerohedge)

iii)As Japan is getting older this is how you play the demographic game:  Adult diaper market explodes

(zero hedge)

3C  CHINA

i)China

China’s service pPMI drops to a 12 month low.  Hong Kong business activity as expected crashes the most on record

(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/THE GLOBE

THIS IS IS TOTAL LIE: cHINA HAS NO INTENTIONS OF OPENING UP CHINA TO FOREIGN FIRMS
(ZEROHEDGE)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY//THURINGIA PROVINCE

The collapse of the centrists parties in Germany..a harbinger of things to come

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

ii)UK

Farage may upset the whole apple cart as he knows intends to field 600 candidates dashing all hope for a pro brexit alliance. It seems that politicians in the UK do not listen to their constituents.

(zerohedge)

iii)UK/USA/BLAIN

Trump and UK is discussed this morning

(Bill Blain)

iv)Deutsche Bank/Germany

If DB fails, the world will implode in short order
(courtesy Michael Snyder)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

The USA is now issuing a 20 million reward for the return of a USA agent.

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)My goodness..we are continually seeing errors all over the place.  Not sure if Germany has increased its gold reserves. Amazing where is the press?

(Goldcore/zerohedge/GATA

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA  and early morning

(zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Seems that the trade war is helping the USA with its deficit as it shrank for the first time in 3 years. However both exports and imports declined which means that global growth is waning.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Farmers increased their herd size as they expected a Chinese deal which so far has not occurred.  Thus the huge increase in pork uS| cold storage..it is at a monstrous 48 year high

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Burisma pressured the Obama administration weeks before Joe Biden got the Ukrainian prosecutor fired

(John Solomon)

b)Rand Paul slams the mass media over the whistleblower..that is refusing to print his name (Ciaramella).  He is scolded the GOP for not protecting Trump

(zero hedge)

c)Chris Farrell goes over the facts that the impeachment process is one big sham

(courtesy Chris Farrell)

d)Part of the Genesis of the Russiagate.  This segment is concerning Stefan Halper

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 7563 CONTRACTS TO A NEW RECORD LEVEL OF 688,722 DESPITE THE LOSS OF $0.75 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7728 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 7728   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7728 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 15,291TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7728 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 7563 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SLIGHTLY SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE WITH THE RAID INITIATED, AS IT FELL BY $0.75. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  15,291 CONTRACTS OR 1,529,100 OZ OR 47.56 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of NOVEMBER.  This month is generally a very poor month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to DECEMBER. Today we have 137 contracts  standing for a LOSS of 49 contracts.   We had 144 notices filed yesterday so we surprisingly gained a very strong 95 contracts or an additional 9,500 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of November.

 

The next active delivery month after November is December.  Here this big December contract month saw its oi FALL by 2583 contracts down to 496,650.  JANUARY saw A GAIN of 50 contracts to stand at 54.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 120 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  12000 OZ. (0.3732 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1668 CONTRACTS FROM 227,782 UP TO 229,450 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.  HERE WE HAVE 23 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 7  CONTRACTS. WE HAD 16 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 23 CONTRACTS OR 115,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THEY ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER NOV WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF DECEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 175 CONTRACTS UP TO 160,815.  JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 7 CONTRACTS UP TO 593.

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 10 notice(s) filed for 50,000, OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 691,748  CONTRACTS Preliminary number

highest ever recorded..must wait until tomorrow’s final no. 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  297,518  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 5/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 200.18 oz

 

hsbc

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
120 notice(s)
 12,000 OZ
(0.3732 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
(1700 oz)
0.0528 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1044 notices
104,400 OZ
3.2472 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ Today  zero amount  arrived

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of HSBC: 200.18 oz

 

We had 2 adjustment and this is what I look for as a settlement:

i) Out of  HSBC:  39,206.864 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC
ii) Out of Scotia: 3,692.03 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Scotia

total weight: 1.334 tonnes

 

 

FOR THE NOV 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 120 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 10 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1044 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV (137 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (120 x 100 oz per contract) equals 96,600 OZ OR 3.004 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1044 x 100 oz)  + (137)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today 120 x (100 oz )which equals 106,100 oz standing OR 3.300 TONNES in this  active delivery month of NOV

We gained a strong 95 contracts OR 9500 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical on this side of the pond. There is no doubt that these guys need to put out fires springing up everywhere!!

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 4 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..     OCT…..   37.99 TONNES

AND NOW NOV……                                                                3.300 tonnes

 

IN THE PAST 4 DAYS NO GOLD ENTERED OR WAS WITHDRAWN FROM REGISTERED COMEX GOLD

ON FRIDAY A PHONY 96,453.000 OZ WAS ADDED BY INT.DELAWARE (3,000 KILOBARS)

WE HAD ANOTHER  3,000 KILOBAR ENTRY ON THURSDAY INTO THE CUSTOMER ACCOUNT

YESTERDAY WE  HAD 2057.600 OZ LEAVE OR EXACTLY 64 KILOBARS THE CUSTOMER ACCOUNT.

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT, IN SEPT, 3 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.60155 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE FOUR DELIVERY MONTHS: 73.8995

TONNES- 3.935 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 69.9639 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.43 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX. (today we had 1.334 tonnes of a deemed settlement)

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,107,234.692 oz or  34.43 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,378,598.083 oz 260.60 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 101 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
NOV 5 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 116,126.876 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
10
CONTRACT(S)
(50,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
13 contracts
 65,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  399 contracts

1,995,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

*

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   NIL  OZ  JPMorgan again resumes deposits after a one day holiday.  This is the 3rd day in a row for a deposit//Prior to that they had 6 straight deposits. In essence they have received as deposits on 9 out of the last 10 days.

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.11% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/314.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  NIL  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT: 110,153.012 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 5,973.864 oz

 

 

total withdrawals; 116,126.876  oz

We had 0 adjustments:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  78.511 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.578 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2019. contract month is represented by 10 contract(s) FOR 50,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 399 x 5,000 oz = 1,995,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (16) and the number of notices served upon today 10 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2019 contract month: 399 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (23)- number of notices served upon today (10) x 5000 oz equals 2,060,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month. 

WE GAINED 23 contracts or an additional 115,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 10 notice(s) filed for 50,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  143,595 CONTRACTS

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 84,482 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 84,482 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 422 million  OZ 84.48% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.53% ((NOV5/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1/33% to NAV (NOV 5/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.53%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.21 TRADING 14.74///DISCOUNT 3.12

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

OCT 31/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT.30 WITH GOLD UP 5.50 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,55 TONNES

OCT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 23/2016′ WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $0.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE : A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.45 TONNES//GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

 

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NOV 5/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 914.67 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 697 TRADING DAYS: 34.98 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 597 TRADING DAYS: A NET 132.16 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

OCT 31//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

OCT 30.//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

OCT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 400,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 909,000 OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.925 MILLION

 

OCT 25/2019: WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 24/2019: WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.963 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.797 MILLION OZ//

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION O

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 5:

 

 

Inventory 376.368 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.99/ and libor 6 month duration 1.92

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .07

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.94%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96%

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Video: Has Germany Increased Its Gold Reserves For The First Time In 21 Years?

Watch Video Here

◆ Has the German Bundesbank increased Germany’s gold reserves for the first time in 21 years?

◆ The important story of how Bloomberg (and only Bloomberg via the Bloomberg terminal) reported that Germany had added to its gold reserves and that “Germany’s reserves climbed to 108.34m oz in September, the first increase since 1998”

◆ A screen grab of the original Bloomberg story on October 23rd can be seen in our video

◆ Contact your Central Bank and encourage them to increase their gold reserves in order to protect against the coming currency crisis

◆ The Bundesbank gold buying was questioned by Jaspar Crawley, the Director of Institutional Investment at the WGC in a tweet where he noted “that the IMF database – which triggered the story in the first place – has been amended to show no change” but the image he shared on Twitter was illegible

◆ Bloomberg corrected the original story on the terminal on October 29th and said that the German gold reserves were “unchanged” at 108.25 m oz (see screen grab of the revised Bloomberg story on the terminal in our video)

◆ Did the IMF get the data wrong? Or was the IMF data correct in the first place and the Bloomberg article correct in the first place but due to the significant sensitivities about the story, the IMF decided to revise the German gold data to “unchanged”

◆ Answers on a postcard please or better still please direct them to the Bundesbank itself on Twitter here @Bunbesbank or use this form to contact the Deutsche Bundesbank’s press office

◆ More important is the context that central banks are the largest buyers of gold in the world in 2019 – including China’s PBOC and the central banks of Russia, Hungary and Poland

◆ The Central Bank of the Netherlands has published a report in which they say that gold is the “perfect piggy bank” and “the anchor of trust for the financial system”

◆ Please contact journalists, financial and economic experts and indeed directly contact the Central Bank of Ireland, the Bank of England and your national central bank and encourage them to repatriate and increase their gold reserves in order to protect against the coming currency crisis

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold prices flat after weekly gain; Trade optimism lifts riskier assets

Gold ends off 5-week high but tallies weekly gain in a period focused on jobs and Fed

Moody’s leaves South Africa teetering on brink of ‘junk’

China gold consumption falls in first three quarters, gold output also lower

India gold demand tapers off after large festival spike

Planeloads of Cash From Russia Have Been Shipped to Venezuela

Amazing £3m hoard of 6,000 gold artefacts from 650AD uncovered in Staffordshire field using £2 metal detector

Gundlach: “Intense” Downturn Means “Helicopter Money” Is Coming

Derivatives’ danger may have gotten too big for central banks – Rickards Interview

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

My goodness..we are continually seeing errors all over the place.  Not sure if Germany has increased its gold reserves. Amazing where is the press?

(Goldcore/zerohedge/GATA

GoldCore’s O’Byrne: Has Germany increased its gold reserves for first time in 21 years?

 Section: 

11:20a CT Monday, November 4, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne today examines the confusion over whether Germany’s Bundesbank recently increased its gold reserves by a small amount or whether the report that it did so was mistaken, caused by an error by Bloomberg News or the International Monetary Fund. In any case, O’Byrne notes, the question could be settled by inquiry direct to the Bundesbank, if the Bundesbank was inclined to answer such questions.

O’Byrne’s commentary is headlined “Has Germany Increased Its Gold Reserves for the First Time in 21 Years?” and it’s posted at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptLakW5AlPY&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

Gold Pukes To Powell-Lows, Bonds Battered

As the market prices out a dovish Fed, bonds and bullion have puked all the post-Powell gains as stocks melt-up continues…

The market is now pricing in just one rate-cut until the end of 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

And that has sparked panic-selling in gold…

And it’s not just gold, bond prices have plunged back below Powell lows…

Because investors seem convinced The Fed is done with its dovishness? Because it will just keep printing money every day to solve the ‘transitory’ liquidity issues?

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9954/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9970   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 16.07 POINTS OR 0.54%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 136.10 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 401.22 POINTS OR 1.76%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.66/Euro FALLS TO 1.1109

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.84/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.91 and Brent: 62.61

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.33%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.01% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.31%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.34: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.21

3k Gold at $1499.50 silver at: 17.97   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 18/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.38

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.84 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9917 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1019 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.33%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.82% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.31%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7475..

S&P Futures Hit New Record High On “Trade Optimism” As Yuan Storms Past 7

Despite a slight blip just around 6am ET, when Global Times editor Hu Xijin tweeted (and then deleted) that “China won’t accept a phase 1 deal” in which the “US keeping all tariffs, only suspending new tariff threat, in exchange for  major concessions from China”, futures climbed and European stocks edged higher amid, what else, even more optimism and investor confidence that America and China are inching toward a trade deal after the FT reported late on Monday that the US considers dropping some tariffs on China with the White House said to mull whether to roll back levies on $112BN of Chinese imports which were introduced at 15% on September 1st. Treasuries fell, while the yuan strengthened past 7 for the first time since August.

 

S&P futures pointed to a new all time high on Wall Street, following records for each major index on Monday spurred by mounting optimism the world’s two largest economies would sign the first phase of an agreement.

 

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index initially drifted sideways, as gains in energy names were mostly offset by losses in telecoms and the utilities, but it then levitated higher to Tuesday’s highest levels a day after the gauge advanced to a four-year high, with mining and energy the best-performing sectors, as traders continued to closely follow signs that the U.S. and China are advancing toward a trade deal. The Index rose 0.1% as of 10:52am in London, erasing a drop of as much as 0.2% earlier. The basic resources and oil & gas sector gauges were up 1.2% and 1%, respectively. At the opposite end, the STOXX Europe 600 Real Estate index drops 0.5%, more than any other sector.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed for a fourth day, led by communications firms, after a gauge for global developed markets rose to a fresh record amid signs of progress toward an initial China-U.S. trade deal. Most markets in the region were up, with Japan leading gains in a catch-up rally after Monday’s holiday break. The Topix advanced 1.7% to a one-year high, with electronic firms offering the biggest boosts. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.5% higher, supported by large insurers and banks. China’s central bank lowered the cost of loans that it offered to lenders Tuesday, cutting the so-called medium-term lending rate for the first time since 2016, easing concerns about tightening liquidity.

 

India’s Sensex retreated 0.2% from Monday’s record close, as Infosys and Reliance Industries weighed on the gauge.

On Tuesday, China’s President Xi Jinping spoke at the opening of the second annual China International Import Expo, where he said the country would “open its doors only wider” to the world. He refrained from taking a swipe at his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump, as he’d done the previous year, and didn’t reference the prospective deal to defuse the tariff war. Instead, Xi stressed China’s commitment to the global trading order. “We must all put the common good of humanity first rather than place one’s own interests above the common interests of all,” Xi said.

In emerging markets, stocks also rose for a fourth day to trade at a six-month peak, while an index for developing-nation currencies headed for the highest since July as risk sentiment remained buoyant amid signs the U.S. and China are inching toward a trade deal. South Africa’s rand and the yuan led gains against the greenback, with China’s currency strengthening past 7 per dollar for the first time since August. The mood was lifted after a report that China is reviewing locations in the U.S. where President Xi Jinping would be willing to meet with President Donald Trump to sign a pact. That’s the latest indication of progress in the trade war, which is alleviating one of the biggest headaches for investors as they approach year-end. “As equity markets reached new highs in the U.S., and EM sentiment has barely deteriorated, it is hard to not be optimistic,” said Credit Agricole strategist Guillaume Tresca.

As the market enters its latest melt up, investors have turned more bullish lately amid “signs of progress in the trade war”, (the same signs we have observed for the past year, but let’s ignore that) which is alleviating one of the biggest headaches for markets as they approach year-end. And despite mediocre earnings, rebounding growth expectations and a risk-on rotation, have added to the euphoria. In the latest trade news, China is reviewing locations in the U.S. where President Xi Jinping would be willing to meet with President Donald Trump to sign a pact, Bloomberg reported.

“The sweet spot for global equities looks even more pronounced,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd., said in a note Tuesday. “The current debate is not whether you are bullish, but whether there is too much short-term euphoria. At some stage valuation will matter, or at least cap the upside.” Just not yet.

In FX, the dollar rebounded from session lows, while the Chinese yuan strengthened past 7 for the first time since August, as the Australian and New Zealand dollars and Scandinavian currencies rallied.

In rates, benchmark Treasuries fell for a third day amid lower demand for haven assets, with the 10Y TSY yield rising to 1.82%. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda suggested his nation could sell more super-long term bonds, reflecting a desire for a steeper yield curve.

In geopolitics, Iranian President Rouhani said the country will further reduce commitments to Nuclear deal by injecting gas into centrifuges at Fordow plant starting tomorrow. Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdogan said the US is still conducting joint patrols with Kurdish YPG inside Syria, this was not part of the agreement, adding the Kurdish YPG have not left Syria’s Tel Rifaat and Manbij regions despite its agreement with US and Russia. Earlier, the Turkish President noted that Turkey will abide by its agreements with Russia and US as long as they keep their promises. Further, Erdogan says he will decide whether to visit Washington this month after a phone call with US President Trump

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,083.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.02% to 403.48
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 166.38
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 535.77
  • Nikkei up 1.8% to 23,251.99
  • Topix up 1.7% to 1,694.16
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 27,683.40
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 2,991.56
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 40,228.26
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,697.12
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,142.64
  • German 10Y yield rose 3.3 bps to -0.318%
  • Euro up 0.03% to $1.1131
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.653%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.324%
  • Brent futures up 0.8% to $62.63/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,504.42
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.54

Top Overnight News

  • President Xi Jinping stressed China’s commitment to the global trading order as his trade negotiators wrangle with the U.S. over rolling back punitive tariffs ahead of a phase one deal. As Xi spoke in Shanghai, the nation’s central bank acted in Beijing to stem a sell-off in the debt market
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO David Solomon suggested Europe’s experiment with negative interest rates is holding the region back and probably won’t look so good in the rear view mirror
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson can count on hedge funds for support heading into the December elections. In a little over a year, Johnson raised more than 400,000 pounds ($516,000) for his own campaign fund from hedge fund executives, investors and bankers — a group that made up half of his donors, according to government figures
  • Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn could take power thanks to support from the Scottish National Party, if no party wins an overall majority in next month’s U.K. election. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon dropped the hint in an interview on Tuesday, saying she would never help the Tories
  • Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stepped into the global debate about whether governments need to do more heavy lifting to support their economies, saying that the ultra-low interest environment created by Japan’s central bank makes fiscal spending more powerful
  • India’s exit from RCEP regional trade talks appeared to leave China and Japan at odds over whether to press ahead with the remaining members, or to try to find a workaround that includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government

Asian equity markets were higher as the region sustained the momentum from Wall St where all major US indices posted record highs on the continued US-China trade optimism, which was further exacerbated by reports the US is mulling rolling back the 15% tariffs on USD 112bln of Chinese imports that took effect from September 1st. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.9%) were positive but with gains in Australia limited by weakness in gold miners and a lack of fireworks from the RBA rate decision where the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected and largely reiterated its past statement, while the Japanese benchmark outperformed as it played catch up on return from the extended weekend and was boosted by a weaker currency. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) were initially choppy despite the improved trade optimism as some were said to be doubtful on whether US President will sign off on the additional concessions and as participants digested mixed Caixin Services and Composite PMI data. Nonetheless, the risk sentiment eventually gained traction after encouraging comments from Chinese President Xi on opening up China’s markets which would likely further appease the US, and the PBoC also announced a larger Medium-term Lending Facility operation at a reduced rate of 3.25% from 3.30%. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower following the bear steepening seen in USTs and with prices pressured by the outperformance of Tokyo stocks, while the BoJ’s Rinban announcement also failed to provide support as the central bank reduced its purchase amounts in 10yr-25yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Kuroda’s Economic Optimism Suggests Rates Not Locked and Loaded
  • Indonesia’s Steady Economic Growth Leaves Economists Puzzled
  • Erdogan Says He Told ‘New Friend’ at Central Bank to Cut Rates
  • Bain, KKR Said Among Bidders for Hong Kong Gaming Firm Leyou
  • Record Delhi Pollution Prompt Tourists to Head for the Hills

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%) are mostly in positive territory, following on from a strong APAC session in which global sentiment was buoyed by positive rhetoric from Chinese President Xi and an FT article that hinted that the US is mulling rolling back tariffs on Chinese imports, albeit it was unclear if US President Trump will sign this off. Sectors are mixed; with energy (+1.1%) in the lead, and materials (+0.5%) and financials (+0.2%) also as curve steepening supports the latter. In terms of individual movers; strong earnings from Lundbeck (+5.4%), Hugo Boss (-2.2%), AB Foods (+4.7%) and Evonik (+4.5%) has seen their respective share prices advance. Meanwhile, soft earnings from Pandora (-15.1%) and Adecco (-1.1%) has seen their shares come under pressure, with the former cutting guidance amid unrest in Hong Kong. Finally, Air France (-5.7%) is lower after announcing that it targets a medium-term operating margin of 7-8% and a medium-term positive adjusted FCF.

Top European News

  • RBS Eyes Euro Bond as U.K. Bank Sales Rebound From Brexit Plunge
  • Germany Boosts Electric-Car Incentives to Stimulate Demand
  • Credit Agricole Upgrades Pound Forecasts as Brexit Fog Lifts
  • Polish Cuts to Judges’ Retirement Age Violate EU Law, Court Says
  • U.K. Services Stagnate Amid Persistent Brexit Uncertainty

In FX, the non-US Dollars are all benefiting from the general upturn in risk sentiment fuelled mainly by further signs that the US-China are moving closer towards Phase 1 of their trade pact, and with the Aussie also taking on board the latest RBA assertion that the domestic economy may be over the worst on the basis that there may be less pressure or reason for further easing in the near term. Aud/Usd has reclaimed 0.6900+ status in response and is pulling away from hefty option expiry interest at the big figure (1.5 bn), while Aud/Nzd is firmly back above 1.0750 even though the Kiwi is shadowing its Antipodean counterpart and the Yuan after a 5 bp MLF rate reduction from the PBoC. Nzd/Usd has rebounded through 0.6400 ahead of NZ jobs and labour cost data that follow the GDT auction, while Usd/Cnh trades sub-7.0000 vs a 7.0385 Usd/Cny mid-point fix overnight. Elsewhere, Usd/Cad is eyeing 1.3100 before the Loonie focuses of Canadian trade for some independent impetus.

  • CHF/JPY – In stark contrast to the above, more safe-haven unwinding has undermined the Franc and Yen, as Usd/Chf inches over 0.9900 and Usd/Jpy creeps further towards 109.00 and 200 DMA resistance just above (109.03).
  • GBP/EUR – Narrowly mixed vs the Greenback as the DXY straddles 97.500, with Cable keeping tabs on the 1.2900 handle where 1.5 bn expiries reside and Sterling deriving some support from another better than forecast UK PMI as the election preamble continues. However, the Pound is still biding time on Brexit uncertainty and meandering against the Euro between 0.8645-25 parameters, as Eur/Usd hovers above 1.1100 in a similarly tight band (1.1113-40) amidst little in the way of specific drivers for the single currency.
  • SEK/NOK – The aforementioned bullish/upbeat mood has also underpinned the Scandi Crowns and enabled the Swedish Krona to overlook disappointing data (ip and new manufacturing orders) plus pretty dovish or less hawkish Riksbank minutes on balance given a couple of reservations about telegraphing a repo hike in December. Indeed, Eur/Sek remains below 10.7000 and Eur/Nok is following suit amidst the backdrop of firm oil prices that helped the cross test 10.1350 ahead of decent technical support spanning 10.1300-10.1250.
  • EM – More post-CPI weakness for the Lira, as Turkish President Erdogan reiterates that the US is not complying with its side of the deal struck on Syria and piles pressure on the CBRT to slash rates again, with Usd/Try flirting with the 5.7500 level at one stage. Conversely, the Rand continues to bask in SA ratings relief rather than balk at ongoing Eskom power problems, as Usd/Zar probes 14.7000 to the downside.
  • RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 0.75% as expected. RBA repeated its statement that rates are to remain low for an extended period and that it will ease policy if needed to support sustainable growth, while it also reiterated that a gentle turning point appears to have been reached. RBA added that its central scenario is for underlying inflation to be close to 2.00% in 2020 and 2021, while it sees economic growth at around 2.25% this year and to pick up gradually to around 3.00% in 2021.

In commodities, crude markets are on the front foot this morning as yesterday’s pre-settlement losses are steadily unwound amid the broader market risk appetite. WTI Dec’ 19 and Brent Jan’ 20 futures are well off of USD 56.30/bbl and USD 61.88/bbl lows, with the latter briefly eclipsing yesterday’s USD 62.79/bbl high (which is also the 200 DMA). In terms of oil price forecasts; UBS expects oil prices to weaken in H1 2020, with Brent prices testing USD 55/bbl by mid-2020 on account of strong supply growth in non-OPEC states. They do, however, expect a price recovery in H2 2020 with prices reaching USD 60/bbl by end-2020. In terms of newsflow; comments from Iranian President Rouhani suggesting a further reduction in nuclear commitments failed to spoke the market – yesterday the head of Iran’s Energy Authority said that the operation of 30 new centrifuges is underway. Elsewhere, OPEC released its world oil outlook; OPEC increased its mid-term outlook for non-OPEC supply growth and forecasted that oil demand in OECD countries is expected to move away from growth to a declining trend after 2020. Looking ahead, barring unexpected US/China trade updates, US ISM Non-manufacturing is likely the main demand side driver of sentiment, while traders will also be eyeing this evening’s API Inventory Data. In terms of the metals; gold is slightly lower on improved risk appetite with prices still holding above 1500/oz for now. Copper prices have advanced amid the constructive trade reports via the FT with the red metal eyeing 2.7/lb to the upside.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $52.4b deficit, prior $54.9b deficit
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 51, prior 51
  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 51.2
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7,063, prior 7,051
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 53.5, prior 52.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A new week but a familiar story with another new record high for US stock markets even if they did pare gains towards the end of the session. In fact, you can take your pick this morning with the S&P 500, DOW, NASDAQ and Philly Semiconductor indices all at new highs. That follows respective gains of +0.37%, +0.42%, +0.56% and +2.19% yesterday with the DOW at a new record high for the first time since July while for the S&P that marks an impressive +7.78% return from the October 3rd intraday lows.

The reality is that it was actually a pretty quiet day for news with the talking points all centring around trade and specifically Wilbur Ross’s comments that we noted this time yesterday about optimism on reaching a “Phase One” trade deal with China and Huawei licenses coming “very shortly”. We also got the news from Politico later in the session that as part of the “Phase One” deal China wanted not just the December tariffs to be taken off the table, but also the removal of September’s tariffs as well. An FT story also suggested that President Trump’s administration is debating whether to remove some existing tariffs “as a concession to seal a partial deal that would pause the trade war with Beijing as early as this month”.

In any case, Ross’s positive comments on auto tariffs also helped European markets where the STOXX 600 jumped +1.00% to its highest level since August 2015. The auto sector unsurprisingly led the way with the STOXX automobiles and parts index up +2.92% and at its highest since April, putting the index up an impressive +18.23% since the October 8th intraday lows. The moves for equities did come with a small tick up in volatility though with the VIX closing up +0.53pts to 12.83. However, that still compares with the 15.8 average for the VIX this year and recent peak of 20.6 in October. So these are still very low levels of vol. Similarly the MOVE index of Treasury vol is around the lowest since early August while FX vol is also well below the recent peaks and in fact not far off the year to date lows. So, vol has notably collapsed in recent weeks.

This morning we’ve had some data out of China with the Caixin services PMI printing in line with consensus at 51.1 – down 0.2pts from the month prior – which means the composite has nudged up 0.1pts to 52.0. In other news the PBoC reduced the cost of one-year funds to banks for the first time since 2016 to 3.25% from 3.3%. On the back of that and the moves on Wall Street last night Asian markets are stronger this morning following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+1.96%) leading the way having been closed on Monday, with strong gains also for Chinese bourses including the Shanghai Comp (+0.99%) and CSI 300 (+1.18%). The Hang Seng and Kospi are also up +0.64% and +0.44% respectively.

Overnight we’ve also heard from BoJ governor Kuroda who suggested that the latest policy guidance showed the BoJ was tilted toward taking easing action. Kuroda also said that the BoJ had other stimulus options besides the negative rate. Speaking of which, the BoJ reduced its buying of bonds due in 10-25 years overnight in a likely bid to steepen the yield curve. As a result, yields on 10y JGBs are up +3.9bps this morning at -0.155%. Elsewhere, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in keynote speech at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai that China will further open up its market and pursue “higher-level” opening up while referring to tariffs on all trade. He also said that China will continue to cut tariffs and reduce transaction costs to boost imports while adding that China will strengthen intellectual-property protections, improving the legal framework and stepping up law enforcement.

Back to yesterday, where there were a few comments out of the Fed. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that “I still think the balance of risks are somewhat to the downside, and I think the cost of cutting unnecessarily is much lower than the cost of not cutting, if we in fact need to”. San Francisco Fed President Daly said “it would take a material change in the outlook for me to think that further accommodation would be required”. Treasuries ended the day +6.7bps higher in yield while the 2s10s curve steepened by +3.7bps. Staying with the Fed, a date worth flagging is November 13th when Chair Powell will address the congressional Joint Economic Committee in Washington.

As for the data that was out yesterday, in the US the final September core capital goods orders data were revised down one-tenth to -0.6% mom. Durable goods ex transportation were also revised down to -0.4% mom while headline factory orders were confirmed at -0.6% mom. Also of interest was the Fed’s senior loan officer survey, which showed that C&I lending standards tightened in Q4 by the most since 2016 while demand for C&I loans by large and medium firms was the weakest since 2010. Also, banks’ willingness to lend to consumer was near the lowest level this cycle with net tightening of standards for everything except autos.

Meanwhile in Europe we got confirmation of the final October manufacturing PMIs. For the Euro Area the data was revised up 0.2pts from the flash to 45.9, which therefore also confirms a 0.2pt improvement from the September reading. Both Germany and France also improved 0.2pts from their respective flash readings to 42.1 and 50.7, respectively, while Italy was in line at 47.7 but Spain weaker than expected at 46.8 (vs. 47.5 expected). Our economists made an interesting point that the new orders-to-inventories gap, which tends to lead manufacturing output PMI by 2-3 months, moved to its least negative since June 2018 and for the first time in at least a couple of years is signalling an improvement in manufacturing output. Some green shots of optimism perhaps.

Here in the UK, the October construction PMI nudged up 0.9pts to 44.2 and 0.1pts ahead of expectations. That being said, the text did cite that “business optimism towards the year-ahead outlook for construction work remained among the weakest seen since 2012. Some construction firms noted that contract awards related to large-scale civil engineering projects had the potential to boost workloads in the next 12 months, although political uncertainty continued to cloud the outlook.” Sterling weakened -0.48%. Ahead of the general election on December 12, we also got a poll from ICM yesterday, which had the Conservatives leading Labour by 38%-31%, a narrower lead for the Tories than the 8-16pt leads that the weekend polls were showing.

To the day ahead now, which this morning includes the remaining October PMIs in the UK (services and composite) and September PPI for the Euro Area. This afternoon in the US the focus will be on the aOctober ISM non-manufacturing while the final October services and composite PMI revisions, September trade balance and September JOLTS report are also released. Away from the data the ECB’s Villeroy is due to speak before the Fed’s Barkin, Kaplan and Kashkari all make comments. We’ll also get OPEC’s latest world oil outlook, while in the US, gubernatorial elections are taking place in Kentucky and Mississippi.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.07 POINTS OR 0.54%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 136.10 POINTS OR 0.49%   /The Nikkei closed UP 401.22 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .17%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9954 /Oil UP TO 56.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.61 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9954 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9970 TRADE TALKS PART ONE CONTINUING////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

This is troublesome: New car sales in Japan (world wide sales0 plunges by a whopping 24.9%

(zerohedge)

Abenomics Update: New Car Sales In October Plunge 24.9% In Japan

It appears that Abenomics continues to fail in Japan, as a worldwide global recession in automobile sales combined with Typhoon Hagibis, which pummeled the Kantō region of Japan during October, both contributed to a huge drop off in new car sales for the month. Japan’s recent increase in its consumption tax was also cited as a potential drag on sales.

Sales of new cars in Japan (including minicars) fell 24.9% year over year, according to the Japan Automobile Sales Association, Nikkei writes.

Sales of registered vehicles fell 26.4% during the month, to 192,504 units. Honda saw its numbers plunge by 40.5%, Toyota fell by 21.7% and Nissan fell 36.9%.

Vendors attributed the drop off to the typhoon and “other weather factors and disasters” during the month.

Minicar sales fell by 22.3% to 122,280 units, the first decrease in 3 months. Sales from Suzuki fell 6.2% and the numbers from Daihatsu plunged 26.3%.

“It cannot be said that there was no impact from the consumption tax hike, but it is necessary to check the trend of several months,” a spokesperson from the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said.

Recall, the country raised its sales tax from 8% to 10% at the beginning of October. The new rate applies to nearly all goods and services, including vehicles, and excludes most food.

end

Soft bank/Japan

Soft bank which took over We Work is an accident waiting to happen.  It’s conglomerate discount balloons to 130 billion USA as investors are coming quite worried

(zerohedge)

SoftBank’s ‘Conglomerate Discount’ Balloons To $130 Billion As Investors Bet Worst Is Yet To Come

After a suite of marquee investments blew up in the company’s face over the summer, SoftBank, the Japanese telecoms giant with a massive VC arm attached, is preparing to face its first real ‘day of reckoning’ this week when it reports Q2 earnings, according to the FT and Nikkei Asian Review. The results will be released after the close of Japanese markets on Wednesday.

Masayoshi Son

Most analysts expect a grim showing: In the span of a few months, SoftBank Chairman Masayoshi Son’s reputation as one of the world’s most successful momentum investors has been totally eviscerated. The company’s stake in ride-share darling Uber has generated an on-paper loss of 30%. What’s worse, Son has insisted on throwing even more money at WeWork parent ‘The We Company’ in a desperate attempt to stave off an imminent bankruptcy, which would have stuck SB with losses in the billions of dollars.

In the latest indication of just how little faith investors’ have in the company, Nikkei points out that SoftBank’s ‘valuation discount’, the gap between its valuation in public markets and its net asset value, has swollen to $130 billion.

Take the group’s net debt figure of $45 billion (which excludes 10 trillion yen of debt held in subsidiaries and is the figure that Son prefers to use), add that to SoftBank’s market capitalization of $81 billion, and its enterprise value is $126 billion. This is essentially the all-in cost of buying the company.

Against that, however, SoftBank has around $191 billion of quoted assets on its balance sheet, the largest of which is a 26% stake in Alibaba Group Holding, the Chinese e-commerce giant. It also owns U.K. chip designer Arm, which SoftBank has on its books at $25 billion, and another $8 billion of assorted assets it classifies as “others.” Add it all up, and SoftBank owns around $224 billion of assets.

In addition, however, there are over 80 tech companies in the Vision Fund – such as ride-hailing giants Didi Chuxing and Grab, Indian hotel startup Oyo, and Chinese social media company ByteDance. SoftBank estimates its one-third share of these are worth $32 billion.

Add all these assets together and the total comes to $256 billion – or $130 billion more than the company is worth on the market. This is the “conglomerate discount,” and it appears to have widened since Son railed about it in the past.

SoftBank and Son are still desperately trying to court Saudi Arabia and convince Crown Prince MbS to commit to backing a planned second iteration of its Vision Fund (which Saudi Arabia backed to the tune of $45 billion from its sovereign wealth fund). However, even before WeWork’s valuation imploded, leading to the scrapping of its planned IPO and an embarrassingly public rescue that involved the ouster of co-founder and CEO Adam Neumann, there was talk that the Saudi’s would sit this one out.

Courtesy of the FT

As SoftBank sees it, the Saudis owe it another chance: In the aftermath of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder inside a Saudi consulate in Istanbul, SoftBank stood by the kingdom, even as Wall Street executives and other business leaders in the West cancelled plans to attend last year’s Future Investment Initiative (better known as MbS’s “Davos in the Desert”) while publicly contemplating whether to sever all business ties to the kingdom, according to the FT.

One year later, those grievances appear to have been forgotten. But sparse attendance at Son’s speech at this year’s FII was seen as emblematic of the reputational hit that Son had taken in the aftermath of the WeWork blowup.

Analysts quoted by Nikkei said that unless SoftBank can pull off the turnaround at WeWork, reviving its valuation will be difficult.

“It cannot be helped that SoftBank’s [WeWork] investment is seen as a failure,” said Mitsunobu Tsuruo, analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Japan. “Investors are worried whether [it] will be the last negative material to affect SoftBank and its shares.”

“We believe that unless the WeWork episode is resolved, SoftBank improves disclosure and clarifies its strategy, there is no solid anchor” to its net asset value, said Atul Goyal, analyst at Jefferies Securities.

On the other hand, another analyst argued that the double-digit slump in SoftBank’s share price this year has completely priced in the WeWork fiasco, and that the SoftBank shares have nowhere to go but up from here.

“We think the impact of this [WeWork] event is now priced in and expect the shares to rebound,” SMBC Nikko Securities wrote in an Oct. 25 report.

A successful IPO from one of the Vision Fund’s 80 other portfolio companies could provide exactly the catalyst that the company needs. A listing for TikTok owner ByteDance in Hong Kong could accomplish this. Whatever happens, a successful offering will almost certainly need to happen outside of the US, since American markets have repeatedly shown this year that they have little appetite left for richly valued unicorns following a nearly uninterrupted string of IPO flops, from Uber & Lyft, to Slack, Peloton and others.

A successful IPO would certainly help, after WeWork’s failed share float. ByteDance, the owner of social media app TikTok, which was valued at $75 billion in an October 2018 fundraising led by SoftBank, is reportedly considering a listing in Hong Kong.

Then again, one IPO might not be enough; many professional asset managers now see Vision Fund backing as an obvious counter-indicator, as one hedge fund manager told the FT. After all, when it comes to valuing its portfolio companies, SoftBank has been so wrong, so many times, that rebuilding trust and faith in its abilities could prove to be an impossible task.

“If SoftBank says this is the value, how much of that should you believe?” says Kirk Boodry, a tech analyst at Redex Holdings who publishes on research platform Smartkarma. One hedge fund investor says backing from the Vision Fund is “an immediate cue to sell.”

And though SoftBank has scored several huge wins in recent years (it still owns a massive stake in Alibaba), investors in the Vision Fund largely missed out on those wins.

According to the FT, Vision Fund executives are counting on a $30 billion investment from Saudi Arabia for V2. But MbS has reportedly told advisers and other insiders that, while he would like to reward Son’s loyalty, his advisers are vehemently against it.

END
As Japan is getting older this is how you play the demographic game:  Adult diaper market explodes
(zero hedge)

Turning Japanese? Growth In $9BN US Adult Diaper Market Explodes, Topping Baby Diapers

Looking for a way to hedge against the economic damage likely to be wrought by the looming ‘demographic timebomb’ (note: that’s what economists and journalists call it)?

Here’s one idea.

According to one recent study, fully one-fifth of the world’s population will be of retirement age by 2070. This phenomenon is largely due to trends in the developed world: as the costs of education, housing and survival skyrocket, many are choosing to have fewer babies, delay family formation, or simply skip that whole mess altogether.

We’ve been over the repercussions of an aging society particularly as it relates to the economy (more job openings, slower economic growth). For better or worse, the world already has a model for how these trends might impact us, at least in the early stages. And that model is Japan, a country that already has more citizen over the age of 80 than under the age of 10.

As demographic issues create new and unforeseen challenges, Reuters reported on an easily-overlooked issue: the revolution in the consumer-products space that will need to take place in the coming years. As the population of the elderly explodes, the need for hygiene products like adults diapers will likely see a commensurate surge (and many of the companies that make these products are publicly-traded consumer staples).

The market is already growing, and last year, it expanded by 9%, to hit $9 billion.

The time may not be far off when more adults need diapers than babies as the population grows older, potentially a huge opportunity for manufacturers of incontinence products – if they can lift the stigma that has long constrained sales.

The market for adult diapers, disposable underwear and absorbent pads is growing fast, up 9% last year to $9 billion, having doubled in the last decade, according to Euromonitor.

As more senior citizens grapple with their weak bladders, Reuters’ sources said the battle for market share will likely be won and lost by the marketing department, as products that emphasize discretion and independence, as well as successfully rebranding them as essential “personal care” products, instead of “baby products.”

Advertising campaigns will also need to be launched to help “normalize” the use of “diapers” by adults.

But manufacturers like market leaders Essity and Kimberly-Clark Corp reckon only half of the more than 400 million adults likely to be affected by weak bladders, are buying the right products, because they are too embarrassed.

Companies are trying various methods to change attitudes, including making products more discreet, avoiding terms like diapers or nappies, and placing items in the personal care aisle, next to deodorants and menstrual pads, rather than in the baby products section.

Resigning adult diapers so that they can be worn more discreetly will be critical (something that some US companies are already working on), as all of those hipster grandpas try to maneuver around in their tight pants and diapers.

In the U.S., market leader Kimberly-Clark has this year given its 35-year-old Depend brand a makeover, introducing thinner, softer and more fitted products that can be worn discreetly, in an effort to make them more acceptable.

The changes are just the latest in a decade-long attempt to win over consumers, which started with manufacturers dropping the ‘diaper’ label, to loosen the association older customers might have with a loss of control in their life.

Yet it is still difficult for companies to persuade people they should buy specially made incontinence products.

“People keep the fact that they have incontinence secret from their loved ones, from their husbands, brothers and sisters – this is a deep secret for many consumers and yet it’s just a fact of life, it’s a physiological reality,” said Fiona Tomlin, who leads Kimberly-Clark’s adult and feminine care division.

Consumer products companies are also trying to “normalize” discussions on the subject via advertising. The market leader in Japan has resorted to clever catch-phrases to try and make problems like incontinence seem trivial.

In Japan, where adult incontinence products have outsold baby diaper sales since around 2013 due to a rapidly ageing population, market leader Unicharm Corp has adopted the phrase “choi more” in its advertising, which translates as “lil’ dribble,” to make light of the problem.

“What we are doing is trying to let people know that incontinence, even among young people, is normal,” said Unicharm spokesman Hitoshi Watanabe.

Incontinence is one of those problems that people keep secret from their friends and loved ones out of shame. But it’s also surprisingly common, even in relatively young adults. Many women who have more than one child struggle with it, creating another branding opportunity.

That is, so long as packaging designers follow a golden rule: Nothing should be associated with aging.

Sweden’s Essity, the global industry leader, is also trying to reach a younger audience with its TENA brand and a new line of black, low-rise disposable underwear called Silhouette Noir.

The advert’s tagline reads: ‘secret’s out: 1 in 3 women have incontinence’.

Around 12% of all women and 5% of men experience some form of urinary incontinence, although conditions vary from mild and temporary to serious and chronic, according to the Global Forum on Incontinence, which is backed by Essity.

Essity said it tries to package and market its products in a way that avoids associations with ageing.

“Designing products and packaging it as feminine and discreet as possible for females and as masculine and discreet as possible for men helps,” said Ulrika Kolsrud, president of Essity’s health and medical solutions.

Getting the message across to potential customers can sometimes be a tricky path to tread. A few years ago, SCA – from which Essity was spun off in 2017 – mailed samples of its products to Swedish men above 55, only to receive a barrage of complaints.

As the countdown continues, the demographic timebomb looks set to hit the West and Japan especially hard. But in the PROC, where a one-child policy kept births down for multiple consecutive generations, the numbers are simply staggering. It’s a problem that’s already starting to hit, as China’s working age population shrinks for the first time  – and one that could have serious repercussions for the global  economy.

3 C CHINA

China

China’s service pPMI drops to a 12 month low.  Hong Kong business activity as expected crashes the most on record

(zerohedge)

China’s service PMI Drops To 12-Month Low, Hong Kong Business Activity Crashes Most On Record

Despite China’s surprise surge in Caixin Manufacturing PMI (to its highest since Dec 2016), Services were expected to show a modest decline which it did (down from 51.3 to 51.1).

Note that the only one of the four PMIs to rise was the government-sponsored manufacturing index – massively bucking the trend of the rest…

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the China General Services PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

“The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index dipped to 51.1 in October from 51.3 in the previous month, marking the slowest expansion in eight months amid subdued market conditions.

1) Demand across the services sector grew at a reduced pace, with the gauge for new business falling to the lowest level since February. The measure for new export business picked up slightly.

2) While the job market expanded at a weaker clip, with the employment gauge falling from the previous month’s recent high, the measure for outstanding business rose further into expansionary territory. This implied a mismatch between labor supply and demand.

3) Both gauges for input costs and prices charged by service providers edged down, but they remained in positive territory, reflecting relatively high pressure on costs, including those of workers, raw materials and fuel.

4) The measure for business expectations dropped to the lowest point in 15 months, indicating depressed business confidence.

Additionally, the Caixin China Composite Output Index inched up to 52 in October from 51.9 in the month before, amid an improvement in manufacturing, but a softer service sector performance.

Source: Bloomberg

The employment gauge dipped into contractionary territory, indicating renewed pressure on the labor market, which was likely due mainly to structural unemployment. The measure for backlogs of work climbed to the highest level since early 2011, highlighting bottlenecks in production capacity and inventories due to weak business confidence.

“China’s economy continued to recover in general in October, thanks chiefly to the performance of the manufacturing sector. Domestic and foreign demand both improved. However, business confidence remained weak, constraining the release of production capacity. Structural unemployment and rising raw material costs remained issues. The foundation for economic growth to stabilize still needs to be consolidated.

But then again, it could be worse – it could be Hong Kong, which saw its PMI crash to 39.3 in October – the lowest since November 2008 with business activity crashing at the fastest pace in the survey’s 21-year history. So much for the bounce in August that everyone declared as the bottom…

Commenting on the latest survey results, Bernard Aw, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, said:

Hong Kong’s private sector remained mired in one of its worst downturns for the past two decades during October, with the latest PMI survey signalling a deepening economic malaise.

The ongoing political unrest and impact of trade tensions saw business activity fall at the sharpest pace since the survey started over 21 years ago. Anecdotal evidence revealed that the retail and tourism sectors remained particularly affected.

“As new orders continued to fall sharply, led by a record decline in demand from mainland China, firms were becoming increasingly pessimistic about the outlook.”

Which doesn’t sound like a picture of ‘recovery’ or bottoming for the Chinese economy as a whole.

And finally, both attempts to juice stocks today on US-China trade deal talk have failed…

Better keep tweeting.

END
CHINA/THE GLOBE
THIS IS IS TOTAL LIE: cHINA HAS NO INTENTIONS OF OPENING UP CHINA TO FOREIGN FIRMS
(ZEROHEDGE)

President Xi Promises To “Open Door Wider” To Foreign Firms Amid Trade Standoff

With many beginning to doubt the prospects for even a partial trade deal with Washington, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at China’s second annual International Import Export Expo knowing that he needed to convince the world that Beijing intends to follow through on its promises to make its markets more accessible, even if that’s an outright lie, and it has no intention of doing so.

So, in a speech on Tuesday, the Chinese president-for-life promised to welcome foreign investment to China, and insisted that Beijing remains committed to a program of market reforms, according to the New York Times and Bloomberg.

Xi said holding back economic liberalization in China would be like holding back a river.

“Economic globalization is a historical trend,” he said, comparing the momentum to the world’s great rivers. “Although there are sometimes some waves going backward, and even though there are many shoals, the rivers are rushing forward and no one can stop them.”

In other words, China will continue its long-running programs of economic reform and opening up, (even if a deal with the US never happens). In a sign of how trade war tensions have deflated over the past year, Xi refrained from taking a swipe at his US counterpart Donald Trump, like he did at last year’s ceremony, since the two sides are still officially near completion of a partial trade deal.

“We must all put the common good of humanity first rather than place one’s own interests above the common interests of all,” Xi said.

In addition to enacting reforms like allowing foreign firms to operate independently in China, Xi has promised to lower tariffs and other costs.

“China will give greater importance to imports,” Xi said Tuesday. “We will continue to lower tariffs and institutional transaction costs,” he added, repeating an earlier pledge.

Analysts were thrilled:

“Xi’s speech endorsed the trade optimism as he indicated that he sees negotiations as the right way to solve disputes,” said Gai Xinzhe, a senior analyst at Sino-Ocean Capital in Beijing. But Xi also warned against “intellectual blockages” and “widening technology gap,” highlighting China’s worry over the technology decoupling some U.S. politicians are advocating, he said.

Still, Beijing could be a long way from a deal. Reports published last night claimed Beijing is now asking for the removal of tariffs imposed in September, something that wasn’t part of the Phase 1 deal as it was reported. The only way to get President Xi in a plane to meet Trump, at this point, would require the cancellation of at least some of the tariffs.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY//THURINGIA PROVINCE

The collapse of the centrists parties in Germany..a harbinger of things to come

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Thuringia Foretells The Fracturing Of Germany

Authored by Tom Luongo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

It’s hard to overstate the importance of the election results last weekend in Thuringia.  The complete collapse of the two centrist parties there, Angela Merkel’s CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD), is looking like a harbinger of what comes next in German politics.

A majority in Thuringia, ruled by the CDU since the early 1990’s until 2014 when Die Linke took over with the Social Democrats and the Greens, just voted against the centrist, Merkelist, grand coalition of standing for nothing but globalism and tighter EU integration.

Die Linke and Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured more than 54% of the total vote. Die Linke, the remnant of the East German Communist Party, and AfD, the new face of anti-immigration and fiscally responsible Germans, took first and second place ahead of Merkel’s CDU.

(source Wikipedia via  Thüringer Landesamt für Statistik)

Whereas in 2014, Die Linke could form a government with the SPD and the Greens, today they cannot, falling 4 seats short of a majority, and the Greens barely beat the 5% threshold for representation.  Had they not the coalition calculus would be unsolvable.

It is just as bad for Merkel and the CDU as they categorically refuse to ally with AfD in any capacity.  So, there is no easy path to a government in Thuringia. The path is just as bad in Brandenburg which voted in September.

In both cases massive cartel-style coalitions will be needed, four parties, to cobble together a majority because all have refused to entreat with AfD.  Lower Saxony will likely retain its current coalition between Merkel’s CDU, the SPD and the Greens after their election last month.

These results all highlight where things are headed in Germany, namely against making promises to everyone and eventually reneging on them, which is Merkel’s legacy.  As Alexander Mercouris at The Duran pointed out the other day, Merkel’s operating principle is one of holding the line on the status quo regardless of the real changes happening around her.

That has created a meta-stable environment which looks like it never loses on the surface but is teetering on collapse with every new development.

She’s done this with every major policy decision of the past five years, trying desperately to keep the European project on the narrow path forward.  But in trying to keep things as they are, she’s let things go to hell back home.

And it may finally be time for Angela Merkel to leave the political stage.

The state elections this fall in Germany have been nothing short of a disaster for Merkel.  Think back to the fall of 2017 and how hard it was for her to put a coalition together.  I prematurely called for the end of Merkelism.  The problems she’s facing now were just as acute then. but she chose to paper them over with yet another disastrous coalition with the Social Democrats.

The one thing I got right back then was their collapse.  They were in free fall then and this has continued to today where they took just 8% of the vote in Thuringia.  They lost their majority in the stronghold of Rhineland-Westphalia in 2017 and that was your harbinger of bad news at the national level later that year.

What’s clear is that political opinions about the future of Germany are hardening away from what Merkel has been selling and it will come to a head in the near future.

The SPD has a party congress in December and with these election results along with the national level polling seeing the Greens rise dramatically, Merkel presides over a zombie Bundestag that no more accurately represents the popular opinion in Germany than the parliaments in Italy and the United Kingdom do.

And in the U.K. it took herculean efforts by Boris Johnson to finally get a general election through the miasma of suck that is the British and European political classes, which no more want to see a real Brexit than decent people want to see Hillary Clinton as U.S. President.

The SPD didn’t want to join another coalition with Merkel in 2017 and after Thuringia there is every expectation that they will finally end the association with her once and for all.  And a general election  can’t be far behind.  The problem with this line of thinking, unfortunately, is that there is no appetite for new elections in Germany.

They are simply not used to this kind of political turmoil.

Moreover, no one in the Eurocratic class wants to see Merkel exit the stage in abject defeat.  So, immense pressure will be placed on SPD leadership to hang with Merkel, just like it was applied to them in late 2017 to form the coalition.

But with Germany entering recession Merkel has already signaled that if she has to go back to the polls she’s ready to make a deal with the Greens with her recent concessions on renewable energy projects and more sops to them.

Current polling has the Greens, however, on the downside of their popularity, having peaked during the European elections at 25% and are now polling down at 22%.  And, again, they, like AfD, are more regionally powerful than they are at the national level.

Meanwhile the SPD, nationally, is in a horse race with AfD at around 14%.  The longer the SPD stays below the magic 16% level the more likely they are to sink into complete irrelevance as they have in Thuringia.

So, if the SPD pulls the plug on the coalition the results of any election in early 2020 won’t likely be any more conclusive than the last one.  More likely than an election, Merkel will simply step down as leader of the CDU and the coalition will try to limp along until 2021.

But the reality is that the global financial system is teetering on the edge of an abyss.  Central Banks like the Fed and the ECB are panicking into major liquidity moves before any real threats have made it into the headlines.

And why is that, unless things are truly far worse than anyone is willing to admit.  How long are we until a Deutsche Bank collapse?

All we’re waiting for right now is a catalyst.  The EU needs to manage their change in power smoothly to keep markets reassured.  But the signs of a major problem are everywhere.  All it takes is a spark.

Because all three of these state elections highlight the huge split between what were West and East Germanies during the Cold War.  And that functional split in political thinking is only going to get worse until it is expressed by the ruling government.

And if Merkel continues to stand in the way of that at some point she’s going to get run over by the force of history.

Both Die Linke and AfD share important fundamental criticisms of the EU as well as with Merkel’s foreign policy.  Both are backed by voters who heavily support withdrawal of U.S. troops from their country.  And both are opposed broadly to Merkel’s disenfranchising voters via her mass immigration policy.

Moreover, both want normalization of relations with Russia.  And with the completion of the Nordstream 2 pipeline and Ukraine’s acceptance of the “Steinmeyer Formula” for resolving conflict in the Donbass, political pressure is mounting for an end to EU sanctions as Merkel has been the person most committed to keeping them until these conditions were met.

To save herself in the near term look for her to promise lifting the sanctions to stave off her final demise.  The stage is now set for this sometime in 2020.

And while we’ll never see the kind of Euroskeptic alliance between AfD and Die Linke like we saw in Italy last year, as economic conditions in Germany deteriorate and Merkel is blamed for it, rightfully so, these areas of policy agreement set the stage for a ripping apart at the seams of the German political fabric.

END

UK

Farage may upset the whole apple cart as he knows intends to field 600 candidates dashing all hope for a pro brexit alliance. It seems that politicians in the UK do not listen to their constituents.

(zerohedge)

Farage Says Brexit Party Will Field 600+ Candidates, Dashing Hopes For Pro-Brexit Election Alliance

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s conservative party is still leading in most polls for the upcoming UK general election called to help strengthen his mandate. But in a development that threatens to destroy his Tory-led coalition, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has dashed rumors about a possible Tory-BP alliance.

Instead of holding back and focusing on Labour-held seats in districts that favored Brexit during the referendum, Farage announced that his party will field candidates in more than 600 races, threatening to split the pro-Brexit vote and raising the possibility that Jeremy Corbyn could emerge as prime minister.

In the latest ICM poll, Conservatives led with 38%, followed by Labour at 31%, the Lib Dems at 15% and the Brexit Party at 9%.

The latest note from a team of Deutsche Bank analysts focused on Brexit recounted that, over the weekend, a series of polls showed that the two establishment parties appear to be gaining support, suggesting that December’s general election could be more of a two-party race than analysts and investors had initially expected. Still, Farage’s decision threatens to throw a wrench into the works.

Nigel Farage

@Nigel_Farage

We have 600+ candidates who are undaunted, enthusiastic and 100% ready to campaign for a proper Brexit across our nation.

They know @BorisJohnson’s deal is not Brexit and it does not get Brexit done.

Embedded video

Farage’s decision comes after he personally decided to sit out the race (Farage doesn’t exactly have a great track record when it comes to running for the House of Commons: He’s tried and failed eight times already). In an interview with the BBC over the weekend, Farage concluded that he could advance the country’s exit from the European Union better by campaigning on behalf of his populist party’s other candidates than by contesting a seat himself.

Farage added that he would campaign aggressively against Johnson’s withdrawal agreement following the PM’s “broken promise” to leave the EU by Oct. 31. The withdrawal agreement is the crux of Johnson’s election manifesto. Labour also opposes Johnson’s deal, and has said that, if Corbyn ousts Johnson, he will return to Brussels to negotiate a new deal, then put it to the public in a second referendum, which could result in Brexit being cancelled in its entirety.

“There are so many Labour-Leave seats…represented by remain member of Parliament…and we view those constituencies as being absolutely among our top targets,” Farage said late last week during the BP’s campaign launch.

Some pro-Leave pundits will no doubt be alarmed by Farage’s decision.

Emily Hewertson@emilyhewertson

This illustrates the big problem Brexiteers will be up against at the forthcoming election.

We need Boris and Farage to work together but under Farage’s current terms, this seems impossible. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191341879599734784 

Britain Elects@britainelects

Portsmouth South, constituency voting intention:

LDEM: 30% (+13)
CON: 27% (-14)
LAB: 24% (-17)
BREX: 14% (+14)

via @Survation, 28 – 29 Oct

View image on Twitter

One senior Tory backbencher griped to the Telegraph that Farage now risks becoming “the man who threw away Brexit.”

The pound tumbled to its lowest level of the day on the news.

END

UK/USA/BLAIN

Trump and UK is discussed this morning

(Bill Blain)

Blain: “Trump Could Not Have Planned It Better”

Blain’s morning porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“Threescore barrels, laid below. To prove old England’s overthrow..”

Tonight the UK celebrates a plot in 1605 to blow up the King and Parliament.  If only… most porridge readers are probably thinking.  We now associate the Gunpowder plot with Guy Fawkes –   a hired mercenary. The leaders of the plot were a small group of disenfranchised Catholic minor aristocracy who saw it as their duty to overthrow the new Protestant Stewart (and Scottish) Monarchy, replacing them with someone more Catholic, and preferably with a taste for burning Protestants. The UK has never been short of unhappy entitled idiots who assume it’s their duty to upset everyone else – NSS!  It’s as true today as it ever was.

Its Fawkes’ visage everyone now identifies as the face a symbol of global protest. Climate Change protestors, Hong Kong Demonstrators and simple bank robbers wear the mask.  Terrorist or freedom fighter?

And…. Since we are talking about UK politics, let me refer everyone to a rather insightful note from last week.  William Dinning, CIO of Waverton, sees a large political risk discount applied to UK assets and sterling.  He’s writen a rather incisive take on the election for markets and given me permission to share it all with you: UK Election: What to Look For in the Next Six Weeks.

The UK Opinion polls are going to be fascinating.. but after trying to watch Michael Gove and Kier Starmer on Brek Drek.. I’ve lost the will to even think about it. Actually.. I’m not sure if it was them I objected to, or the interviewer’s technique?  Bottom line.. how does anyone win an election when everyone is already too bored to listen to Politicians?

Back in the Real World….

Most blogs reckon Trump is making noises about scaling back tariffs on China to deflect from the deepening Slough of Despond the impeachment case threatens to become.

Did he, didn’t he? Well of course he did – but is it worth polarizing the US Electorate over it? If Trump wins, the US lurches further towards something further away from the founding fathers’ dream.  If he is defeated at the ballot box – democracy is proved.  If he loses in the courts, democracy will find itself in the dock in Nov 2020.  Trump wins if the Democrats don’t get their act together, coalesce around an electable leader and offer the electorate policies that appeal.

I wonder… Trump could not have planned it better – with one hand keep the Democrats angry and furious and focused on him, while the other bedazzles his part of the electorate with his trade statesmanship. (Pass me a bucket.)

Both China and Trump are now making positive noises about a trade agreement. Are they likely to achieve something meaningful, or enough to justify the new record levels we’re seeing in global stocks?  I wonder what’s really going on.  It’s not recession we are seeing – its changing global trade flows. That is going to create winners and losers.

There is some really interesting stuff in the papers raising issues about why the Global Economy is really shifting.  One strand of thinking is the shift in the Global Car industry – as the end of the combustion age approaches, the flows have shifted to Electric Vehicles. Three stories worth reading for each side of that trade are:

Together these stories can pretty much explain why Germany’s superb quality and tech led automotive industries are being squeezed, while the US and China are both set to benefit.  Another strand of the same theme – changing supply chains – is the US Military Build-up finding itself tied to global supply chains that ultimately leave it reliant on Russia and China for supplies, just a new Cold War threatens layer a strategic dimension to changing global trade.  Never underestimate the capacity of the US Military Industrial complex to juice the US economy. It’s happened before, and can happen again.

I had an interesting argument with a reader yesterday. He was lightly joshing me when I predicted the next six months would see a fundamental shift in the medium-term global outlook.  I explained the Morning Porridge doesn’t hold with any of that Kondratieff nonsense about 50 year cycles (although it may be worth thinking about in terms of the parallels between Cold War cycles and the Themistocles Trap.) I explained the current market perspective is:

Markets are about taking views on the future:

  • Short-term: what can I eat now?
  • Medium-term: What’s for lunch?
  • Long-Term: Where are we going for dinner?

There is a fundamental shift going on – and it moves us into a new economic cycle. Some economies look strong going into it: the US and China, which will lead to them squaring off. But others, like Europe, are entering this phase of economic redefinition starting in recession, facing massive internal issues, and without a unified approach. I wonder if that means an effective long-term strategy will be to buy the Anglo-Saxon economies and sell Yoorp? I suspect so.

The other big theme in the press this morning I can’t ignore is Softbank. Its got a massive target on its forehead. I can’t help but think the pressure of media attention is sweeping it towards the death spiral zone.  .

end
Deutsche Bank/Germany
If DB fails, the world will implode in short order
(courtesy Michael Snyder)

The Deutsche Bank Death Watch Has Taken A Very Interesting Turn

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The biggest bank in Europe is in the process of imploding, and there are persistent rumors that the final collapse could happen sooner rather than later.  Those that follow my work on a regular basis already know that this is a story that I have been following for years.  Deutsche Bank is rapidly bleeding cash, they have been laying off thousands of workers, and the vultures have been circling as company executives desperately try to implement a turnaround plan.  Unfortunately for Deutsche Bank, it may already be too late.  And if Deutsche Bank goes down, it will be even more catastrophic for the global financial system than the collapse of Lehman Brothers was in 2008.  Germany is the glue that is holding the EU together, and so if the bank that is right at the heart of Germany’s financial system collapses, the dominoes will likely start falling very rapidly.

There has been a tremendous amount of speculation about Deutsche Bank over the past several days, and so let’s start with what we know.

We know that Deutsche Bank has been losing money at a pace that is absolutely staggering

Deutsche Bank reported a net loss that missed market expectations on Wednesday as a major restructuring plan continues to weigh on the German lender.

It reported a net loss of 832 million euros ($924 million) for the third quarter of 2019. Analysts were expecting a loss of 778 million euros, according to data from Refinitiv. It had reported a net profit of 229 million euros in the third quarter of 2018, but a loss of 3.15 billion euros in the second quarter of this year.

If you add the losses for the second and third quarter of 2019 together, you get a grand total of nearly 4 billion euros.

How in the world is it possible to lose that much money in just 6 months?

If all they had their employees doing was flushing dollar bills down the toilet for 6 months, it still shouldn’t be possible to lose that kind of money.

When investors learned of Deutsche Bank’s third quarter results last week, shares of the bank went down about 8 percent in a single day.

Overall, the stock price has lost over a quarter of its value over the past year.

Unless you enjoy financial pain, I have no idea why anyone would want to be holding Deutsche Bank stock at this point.  As I have previously warned, it is eventually going to zero, and the only question remaining is how quickly it will get there.

We also know that Deutsche Bank has been laying off thousands of workers all over the world

On July 8, 2019, thousands of Deutsche Bank employees across the globe arrived at their offices, unaware that they would be leaving again, jobless, just a few hours later. In Tokyo, entire teams of equity traders were dismissed on the spot, while some London staff were reportedly told they had until 11am to leave the bank’s Great Winchester Street offices before their access cards stopped working.

The job cuts, which totalled 18,000, or around 20 percent of Deutsche Bank’s workforce, were the flagship element of a restructuring plan designed to save the ailing German lender.

The day before those layoffs happened, most of those employees would have probably told you that Deutsche Bank is in good shape and has a very bright future ahead.

Just like we witnessed with Lehman Brothers, there is always an effort to maintain the charade until the very last minute.

Source: Bloomberg

But the truth is that anyone with half a brain can see that Deutsche Bank is dying.  There have been so many bad decisions, so many aggressive bets have gone bad, and there has been one scandal after another

In April 2015, the bank paid a combined $2.5bn in fines to US and UK regulators for its role in the LIBOR-fixing scandal. Just six months later, it was forced to pay an additional $258m to regulators in New York after it was caught trading with Myanmar, Libya, Sudan, Iran and Syria, all of which were subject to US sanctions at the time. These two fines, combined with challenging market conditions, led the bank to post a €6.7bn ($7.39bn) net loss for 2015. Two years later, it paid a further $425m to the New York regulator to settle claims that it had laundered $10bn in Russian funds.

At this point, it is just a zombie bank that is stumbling along until someone finally puts it out of its misery.

Money is so tight at Deutsche Bank that they have even cancelled the Christmas reception for retired employees

Times change. Once upon a time (2001, in fact), Deutsche Bank was able to book stars like Robbie Williams for its staff Christmas party, with a Spice Girl turning up too just because it was such a great party. Now, according to the FT, Christian Sewing has even cancelled the daytime coffee-and-cake Christmas reception for retired employees.

Of course saving a few bucks on coffee and cake is not going to make a difference for a bank with tens of trillions of dollars of exposure to derivatives.

Deutsche Bank is the largest domino in Europe’s very shaky financial system.  When it fully collapses, it will set off a chain reaction that nobody is going to be able to stop.  David Wilkerson once warned that the financial collapse of Europe would begin in Germany, and Jim Rogers has warned that the implosion of Deutsche Bank would cause the entire EU to “disintegrate”

Then the EU would disintegrate, because Germany would no longer be able to support it, would not want to support it. A lot of other people would start bailing out; many banks in Europe have problems. And if Deutsche Bank has to fail – that is the end of it. In 1931, when one of the largest banks in Europe failed, it led to the Great Depression and eventually the WWII. Be worried!

Sadly, most Americans can’t even spell “Deutsche Bank”, and they certainly don’t know that it is the most important bank in all of Europe.

But those that understand the times we are living in are watching Deutsche Bank very carefully, because if it implodes global financial chaos will certainly follow.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

The USA is now issuing a 20 million reward for the return of a USA agent.

(zerohedge)

US Issues $20M Reward For Return Of US Agent, “Longest Held” Hostage In Iran

 

A flurry of US-Iran related activity on the 40th anniversary of the American hostage crisis and the Islamic revolution that sparked it: after Iran earlier on Monday announced it took steps to double its uranium enrichment capacity via new advanced centrifuges, Washington has answered by slapping new sanctions on Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as eight advisers of Iran’s top cleric, including the head of judiciary Ebrahim Raisi, and Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff and its chief, General Mohammad Bagheri.

Crucially, the United States Treasury also announced a $20 million reward for info on the return of Bob Levinson, who is believed to have been held hostage by the Iranian government since his disappearance from Iran’s Kish Island in 2007.

Levinson is the longest held American hostage inside the Islamic Republic, and multiple efforts to free him or gain knowledge of his whereabouts have come up empty over the years. It’s believed he came under suspicion of Iran’s intelligence agencies due to his being a former Drug Enforcement Administration and FBI agent.

Rewards for Justice

@Rewards4Justice

For over 12 years Bob’s family and loved ones have waited; for over 12 years, the Iranian regime has failed to cooperate.

Up to $20 million possible for information leading to his safe location, recovery, and return.

Bring Bob and all Americans home.

View image on Twitter

Indeed years ago it was revealed that he was likely working as a contractor for the CIA. According to a recent Newsweek profile of Levinson:

Levinson, an ex–FBI agent well into a second career as a private detective, had disappeared over a decade earlier from a hotel on Iran’s Kish Island. He had been seen only twice since then, first in a hostage video his family received from unknown intermediaries in 2010, then in photos three years later, showing the then-63-year-old increasingly haggard and begging for help.

At first, the U.S. government claimed it had no knowledge of why Levinson, an expert on Russian organized crime, had gone to Iran. The Iranian regime denied it was holding him. But in 2013, the Associated Press and other news outlets revealed that the ex-agent had gone to Kish on an off-the-books CIA mission to probe high-level Iranian money laundering.

The United States has reportedly long been engaged in secretive efforts to secure his release, but little is as yet known of his status.

Concerning the new sanctions announced Monday, the US Treasury stated in its press release that it is targeting “Iran’s inner circle responsible for advancing regime’s domestic and foreign oppression,” or what it also describes as “Khamenei’s network”.

This follows broader economic sanctions on Iran’s energy, auto, banking, and other major sectors after the May 2018 Trump administration pullout of the 2015 nuclear deal.

 

Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said of the new sanctions: “The designation seeks to block funds from flowing to a shadow network of Khamenei’s military and foreign affairs advisers who have for decades oppressed the Iranian people, supported terrorism, and advanced destabilizing policies around the world.”

“While the Iranian regime’s decision to jail our diplomats has cast a 40-year shadow over our relations, the United States knows that the longest-suffering victims of the Iranian regime are the Iranian people,” he added, referencing the 40th anniversary of the 1979 crisis, which went for 444 days.

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1109 DOWN .0019 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.84 UP 0.141 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2899   UP   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3129 DOWN .0023 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 13 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.109 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 16.07 POINTS OR 0.54% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 136.10 POINTS OR 0.49%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,17%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 136.10 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.07 POINTS OR 0.54%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 17% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 401.22  POINTS OR 1.76%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1501.95

silver:$18.01-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.82% !!! UP 4 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.31 UP 5  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.16 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.25% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.12%  UP 6   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.33%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,03 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 70 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.36% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA  INDEX//1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1077  DOWN     .0056 or 56 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.13 UP .425 OR YEN DOWN 43  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2872 DOWN .0017 POUND DOWN 17  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 20 basis points to 1.3173

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: 7.0077    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  67.0024  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7542 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.12%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 9 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.86 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.35 UP 9 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.94 UP 47  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 18.39  0.25%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 12.22 POINTS OR .09%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 22.59 POINTS 0.39%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 8.50 POINTS or 0.09%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 53.39 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.18 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 62.89 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    63.55  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.31 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  57.14//

 

 

BRENT :  62.89

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.85 plus 8 basis pts….

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.33 plus 7 basis pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.11072 ( DOWN 56   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.18 DOWN .479 (YEN DOWN 48 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.93 UP 42 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2885 DOWN 5  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7521

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.49   UP 0.05 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 5 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3165 DOWN 42 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0097  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0005 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.31%

 

The Dow closed UP 31.37 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 31.37 POINTS OR 0.11%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.97 CLOSED UP .14

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.908%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

“Good News” Sparks Equity Algo Chaos But Batters Bonds & Bullion

While Markit’s PMI disappointed and dropped to 3-year lows, ISM’s survey of non-manufacturers beat expectations and that was all the market needed to be reassured that everything is about to be awesome again…

Source: Bloomberg

And that “good news” sparked a decidedly hawkish surge in Fed rate-cut expectations (only 1 rate cut priced in by end 2020)…

Source: Bloomberg

Which instantly sent stocks lower as algos saw “good news” as “bad news” – but that didn’t last…

 

As the odds of a US-China trade deal surged (despite China talking it down)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields have retraced all the post-Powell drop…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar has retraced all of the post-Powell drop…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold retraced its gains post-Powell…

Leaving the asset-gatherers and commission-rakers all cock-a-hoop…

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the world, Chinese stocks gained overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks managed modest gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

And European bonds are selling off – for example that 100Y Austrian debacle…

Source: Bloomberg

US Stocks were mixed with Trannies once again exploding higher, and thanks to a weak close, the rest ended marginally unch…

 


As shorts were massively squeezed once again at the open (but note that after Europe closed, “most shorted” stocks began to sink back (ran out of ammo?)…

Source: Bloomberg

Given all the excitement over the trade deal being close, odd that Semis would flounder…

 

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was monkeyhammered back to a 12 handle – its lowest since July…

And at the same time, the market has never been this short vol…

Source: Bloomberg

The one-way street higher in yields continued amid a heavy calendar of corporate issuance (and the associated rate-locks)…

Source: Bloomberg

As the dollar rallied, yuan also surged back below 7/USD…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos all lifted since the start of European trading…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin futures flash-crashed overnight but spot barely budged…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite weak China data, hope for a trade deal once again levitated crude and copper and crushed PMs…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI extended its gains, topping $57 and hitting 6-week highs on trade-deal optimism ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…(timing of this ramp is interesting considering the Aramco IPO is imminent)

 

Finally, the market is gripped by “Extreme Greed” – that hasn’t worked out so well in the past…

Source: CNN

And the meltup has decoupled stocks from Ed Yardeni’s infamous fundamental market indicator

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Stocks, Yuan Surge On Reports Trump Considering Lifting Some China Tariffs

Surprise!

Another hour, another anonymously-sourced, strawman of an idea suggesting the end of the US-China trade war is nearer.

This time it is The FT that reportsaccording to five people briefed on the discussions, the White House is considering whether to roll back levies on $112bn of Chinese imports – including clothing, appliances, and flatscreen monitors – that were introduced at a 15 per cent rate on September 1.

Such a move by the US would meet a core demand from Beijing as negotiators from the world’s two largest economies work out the terms of a ceasefire to be signed in the coming weeks by President Trump and Xi Jinping, his Chinese counterpart.

Washington would likely expect something in return, including beefed up provisions on the protection of intellectual property for US companies (which the Chinese already rejected earlier today), greater certainty on the scale of Chinese purchases of US farm products, and a signing ceremony for the agreement on American soil.

Futures exploded higher, taking out the overnight record high stops…

And Offshore yuan is bid…

Source: Bloomberg

How long before Trump tweets a denial? Or Navarro jawbones it away?

The FT does warn, 10 or so paragraphs down, that one person familiar with the matter cautioned that although there was a growing consensus within the Trump administration that they have to make a concession on existing levies, it was unclear whether the US president himself would sign off, so the rollback may not materialise. 

end

THIS MORNING

Futures Dip As Global Times Editor Pours Cold Water On Trade Deal Hopes 

E-mini S&P500 futures dipped following a tweet from Global Times editor, Hu Xijin, who tweeted: “Based on what I know, Beijing will insist that the US proportionally remove existing additional tariffs simultaneously with China. The US keeping all tariffs, only suspending new tariff threat, in exchange for major concessions from China, China won’t accept such a phase 1 deal.”

E-mini S&P500 futures dipped and have stabilized so far…

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Seems that the trade war is helping the USA with its deficit as it shrank for the first time in 3 years. However both exports and imports declined which means that global growth is waning.

(zerohedge)

US Deficit Shrinks Most In 3 Years As China Trade Tumbles

Is the Trump trade war finally working?

The US trade balance (deficit) shrank in September (from -$55.0bn to -$52.5bn), improving by 6.5% YoY – the biggest shrinkage in the deficit since Sept 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall exports decreased 0.9% to $206 billion while imports slid 1.7% to $258.4 billion.

Trade with China has tumbled since the tariff war began in earnest in 2018. In the first nine months of 2019, merchandise imports from China are down 13.5% and exports to the country have dropped 14.6%, according to Commerce Department data.

The trade balance with China improved sequentially for the second month in a row, and has improved YoY for nine months in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Merchandise imports from the Asian country fell 4.9% from the prior month to $37 billion, the lowest in more than three years, while U.S. exports to China dropped 10% to a five-month low, narrowing the deficit to a seasonally adjusted $28 billion.

The data reflect the Sept. 1 tariffs on about $110 billion in Chinese imports, largely hitting popular goods such as Apple watches, clothing, and shoes. Companies may have sought to avoid paying the higher prices by stocking up before the levies were imposed. Exports of soybeans — which aren’t broken down by destination — dropped by $1 billion during the month, while shipments of autos and parts fell by a similar amount.

Finally, we note that the U.S. has increasingly been getting a boost from domestic oil production and is now a net exporter. The data showed a petroleum surplus of $252 million in September — the first reading in positive territory in figures going back to 1978 — as imports declined. Excluding the commodity, the goods deficit narrowed to $70.8 billion from $72.8 billion.

end

US Services Sector Slump Hits 3-Year Lows, Worst Jobs Cuts Since 2009

US Manufacturing surveys (PMI and ISM) both agreed that October saw a modest rebound (despite ISM still in contraction) and analysts expected Services surveys to show a similar improvement, but that was not to be

  • US Manufacturing PMI 51.3 – expansion (up from 51.1 prior)
  • US Manufacturing ISM 48.3 – contraction (up from 47.8 prior)
  • US Services PMI 50.6 – expansion (down from 50.9 prior and below 51.0 exp) – weakest since Feb 2016
  • US Services ISM 54.7 – expansion (up from 52.6 prior and above 53.5 exp)

So, once again – a mixed picture – up in ISM and down in PMI…

 

Source: Bloomberg

While the headline jumped, we note that 6 components are down and only 4 up…

 

And in case you wondered how this was possible? It’s simple as one respondent explains:

“Beginning of a new fiscal year brings a tremendous amount of spending.” (Public Administration)

Not everyone is excited:

“Our business remains at the same level. There is no expectation for new orders, since clients normally do not make capital-expenditure decisions in the last quarter. Our only expectation is with regards to the U.S.-China trade deal outcome.” (Mining)

“Business is still lower than this time last year due to tariff issues and a soft market.” (Wholesale Trade)

Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“Although October saw signs of manufacturing pulling out of its recent soft patch, the far-larger service sector remained in the doldrums as inflows of new work failed to grow for the first time since 2009.

With inflows of new work drying up, firms are relying on previously-placed orders to sustain current output growth, meaning the rate of expansion could weaken further in coming months if demand doesn’t revive.

“Hence we’re seeing jobs being cut at an increased rate among surveyed companies, with employment falling for a second successive month and to a degree not seen since 2009. Such a weakening of the survey’s employment index will likely feed through to the official jobs numbers as we move toward the end of the year.

The news was by no means all negative, however, with firms becoming more optimistic about the year ahead, buoyed by hopes of an easing of trade tensions and stimulus from lower interest rates. However, the overall degree of optimism remains sharply lower than this time last year as companies remain concerned by ongoing uncertainty about the outlook.”

Finally, Williamson notes that taken together, the manufacturing and service sector surveys consequently suggest that the US economy got off to a disappointing start in the fourth quarter, consistent with GDP growing at an annualized rate of less than 1.5%.

 

Using ISM data, we note that the Composite Index (whether driven by jobs mix – 14% Manu, 86% Serv; or earnings mix – 68% Manu, 32% Serv) has improved in October (with the earnings-weighted index out of contraction)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Globally, Germany is the stand out in terms of collapse…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly hinting at the lows being in

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Farmers increased their herd size asthey expected a Chinese deal which so far has not occurred.  Thus the huge increase in pork uS| cold storage..it is at a monstrous 48 year high

(zerohedge)

Pork Pile-Up Continues: Bacon Levels In US Cold Storage Surge To 48-Year High

Cold storage facilities across the U.S. have just hit record-high levels of pork bellies, the cut of the pig used to make bacon, reported Bloomberg. Much of the oversupply problem stems from farmers’ increasing herd sizes ahead of a possible trade deal that was expected to occur earlier this year.

Farmers in 1H20 across Central and Midwest regions were desperately trying to increase herd sizes and or fields planted of corn and soybean because President Trump kept touting imminent trade deal in the press. What the farmers didn’t realize is that there was no trade deal at the time, and the impending trade deal comments were only to boost the stock market. What this created was massive misguidance by the government that has led to shocking oversupplied conditions.

According to new U.S. government data published last week, there are more than 40 million pounds of pork bellies in cold storage facilities across the U.S. The levels are so high that some cold storage facilities could run out of space. The last time storage facilities saw this much pork belly was 1971.

Hog producers, listening to every trade headlines from the Trump administration, quickly expanded herds through spring and summer with the anticipation of an imminent trade deal with China. U.S. herd levels rose to 7.7 million heads as of Sept. 1, a level not seen since 1943.

While the massive overhang of pork bellies could be short-lived due to the anticipation of a “Phase 1” trade deal could be signed imminently between the U.S. and China, the lesson to be seen is that fake trade news has consequences, such as disrupting free markets and creating imbalances.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Burisma pressured the Obama administration weeks before Joe Biden got the Ukrainian prosecutor fired

(John Solomon)

Burisma Pressured Obama Admin Weeks Before Joe Biden Got Ukrainian Prosecutor Fired

Authored by John Solomon via John Solomon Reports

(emphasis ours)

Hunter Biden and his Ukrainian gas firm colleagues had multiple contacts with the Obama State Department during the 2016 election cycle, including one just a month before Vice President Joe Biden forced Ukraine to fire the prosecutor investigating his son’s company for corruption, newly released memos show.

During that February 2016 contact, a U.S. representative for Burisma Holdings sought a meeting with Undersecretary of State Catherine A. Novelli to discuss ending the corruption allegations against the Ukrainian firm where Hunter Biden worked as a board member, according to memos obtained under a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit. (I filed that suit this summer with the help of the public interest law firm the Southeastern Legal Foundation.)

Just three weeks before Burisma’s overture to State, Ukrainian authorities raided the home of the oligarch who owned the gas firm and employed Hunter Biden, a signal the long-running corruption probe was escalating in the middle of the U.S. presidential election.

Hunter Biden’s name, in fact, was specifically invoked by the Burisma representative as a reason the State Department should help, according to a series of email exchanges among U.S. officials trying to arrange the meeting. The subject line for the email exchanges read simply “Burisma.”

“Per our conversation, Karen Tramontano of Blue Star Strategies requested a meeting to discuss with U/S Novelli USG remarks alleging Burisma (Ukrainian energy company) of corruption,” a Feb. 24, 2016, email between State officials read. “She noted that two high profile U.S. citizens are affiliated with the company (including Hunter Biden as a board member).

“Tramontano would like to talk with U/S Novelli about getting a better understanding of how the U.S. came to the determination that the company is corrupt,” the email added. “According to Tramontano there is no evidence of corruption, has been no hearing or process, and evidence to the contrary has not been considered.”

At the time, Novelli was the most senior official overseeing international energy issues for State. The undersecretary position, of which there are several, is the third-highest-ranking job at State, behind the secretary and deputy secretary. And Tramontano was a lawyer working for Blue Star Strategies, a Washington firm that was hired by Burisma to help end a long-running corruption investigation against the gas firm in Ukraine.

Tramontano and another Blue Star official, Sally Painter, both alumni of Bill Clinton’s administration, worked with New York-based criminal defense attorney John Buretta to settle the Ukraine cases in late 2016 and 2017. I wrote about their efforts previously here.

Burisma Holdings records obtained by Ukrainian prosecutors state the gas firm made a $60,000 payment to Blue Star in November 2015.

The emails show Tramontano was scheduled to meet Novelli on March 1, 2016, and that State Department officials were scrambling to get answers ahead of time from the U.S. embassy in Kiev.

The records don’t show whether the meeting actually took place. The FOIA lawsuit is ongoing and State officials are slated to produce additional records in the months ahead.

But the records do indicate that Hunter Biden’s fellow American board member at Burisma,  Devon Archer, secured a meeting on March 2, 2016 with Secretary of State John Kerry. In addition to serving on the Burisma board, Archer and Hunter Biden were partners at an American firm known as Rosemont Seneca.

Devon Archer coming to see S today at 3pm – need someone to meet/greet him at C Street,” an email from Kerry’s office manager reads. “S” is a shorthand frequently used in State emails to describe the Secretary of State. The memos don’t state the reason for the meeting.

Tramontano, a lawyer for Hunter Biden, Archer and Joe Biden’s campaign did not return messages seeking comment on Monday.

In an interview with ABC News last month, Hunter Biden said he believed he had done “nothing wrong at all” while working with Burisma but “was it poor judgment to be in the middle of something that is…a swamp in — in — in many ways? Yeah.”

Whatever the subject of the Archer-Kerry meeting, its existence is certain to spark interest. That’s because Secretary Kerry’s stepson, Christopher Heinz, had been a business partner with both Archer and Hunter Biden at the Rosemont Seneca investment firm in the United States.

Heinz, however, chose not to participate in the Burisma dealings. In fact, he wrote an email to his stepfather’s top aides in May 2014, pointedly distancing himself from the decision by Hunter Biden and Devon Archer to join Burisma’s board.

Heinz’s spokesman recently told The Washington Post that Heinz ended his relationship with Archer and Hunter Biden partly over the Burisma matter. “The lack of judgment in this matter was a major catalyst for Mr. Heinz ending his business relationships with Mr. Archer and Mr. Biden,” Heinz spokesman Chris Bastardi told the newspaper

A person who assisted Blue Star and Buretta in settling the Burisma matters in Ukraine told me in an interview that the late February 2016 overture to State was prompted by a dramatic series of events in Ukraine that included when that country’s top prosecutor escalated a two-year probe into Burisma and its founder, the oligarch Mykola Zlochevsky.

Zlochevsky’s gas firm hired Hunter Biden and Archer as board members for Burisma Holdings in spring 2014, around the time that British officials opened corruption investigations into Zlochevsky’s gas firm for actions dating to 2010 before Hunter Biden and Archer joined the firm. Ukraine officials opened their own corruption probe in August 2014.

A firm called Rosemont Seneca Bohai began receiving monthly payments totaling more than $166,000 from Burisma Holdings in May 2014, bank records show. The records show Devon Archer was listed as a custodian for the Rosemont Seneca Bohai firm and that Hunter Biden received payments from it. You can read those bank records here.

In September 2015, then-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt gave a speech imploring Ukrainian prosecutors to do more to bring Zlochevsky to justice, according to published reports at the time.

By early 2016 the Ukrainian investigation had advanced enough that then-Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin authorized a court-ordered seizure of Zlochevsky’s home and other valuables, including a luxury car. That seizure occurred on Feb. 2, 2016, according to published reports in Ukraine.

The same day that the Zlochevsky seizure was announced in Ukraine, Hunter Biden used his Twitter account to start following Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken, a longtime national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden who was promoted to the No. 2 job at State under Secretary John Kerry.

The Feb. 4, 2016 Twitter notification from Hunter Biden to Blinken was captured by State email servers and turned over to me as part of the FOIA release.

Within a few weeks of Tramontano’s overture to Novelli and of Archer’s overture to Kerry, Vice President Joe Biden took a stunning action, one that has enveloped his 2020 campaign for president in controversy.

By his own admission in a 2018 speechJoe Biden used the threat of withholding $1 billion in U.S. aid to strong-arm Ukraine into firing Shokin, a prosecutor that he and his office knew was investigating Burisma.

Biden has said he forced Shokin’s firing because he and Western allies believed the prosecutor wasn’t aggressive enough in fighting corruption.

Shokin disputes that account, telling both me and ABC News that he was fired specifically because he would not stand down from investigating Burisma. In fact, Shokin alleges, he was making plans to interview Hunter Biden about his Burisma work and payments when he got the axe.

Ukraine prosecutors have said they do not believe the Bidens did anything wrong under Ukraine law. But some of the country’s prosecutors made an effort in 2018 to get information about Burisma to the U.S. Justice Department because they believed American prosecutors might be interested in some activities under U.S. law. You can read about that effort here.

Some experts and officials have been quoted in reports saying Joe Biden’s actions created the appearance of a conflict of interest, something all U.S. government officials are supposed to avoid. The questions about conflicts were previously raised in a 2015 article by the New York Times and the 2018 book Secret Empires by author Peter Schweizer.

The new evidence of contacts between Burisma, Hunter Biden and Archer at State are certain to add a new layer of intrigue to the debate. Those contacts span back to at least spring 2015, the new memos show.

On May 22, 2015, Hunter Biden emailed his father’s longtime trusted aide, Blinken, with the following message: “Have a few minutes next week to grab a cup of coffee? I know you are impossibly busy, but would like to get your advice on a couple of things, Best, Hunter.”

Blinken responded the same day with an “absolutely” and added, “Look forward to seeing you.”

The records indicate the two men were scheduled to meet the afternoon of May 27, 2015.

The State Department records also indicate Hunter Biden met Blinken in person for lunch on July 22, 2015, when State officials gave the name of a person to meet to help him enter the building. “He has the VIP pin and can escort you upstairs for your lunch with Tony,” the email said.

The emails don’t indicate whether the meeting had to do with Burisma or one of Hunter Biden’s other interests.

But they clearly show that Hunter Biden, his business partner and Burisma’s legal team were able to secure contacts inside the State Department, including to one of his father’s most trusted aides, to Secretary Kerry and to the agency’s top energy official.

The question now is: Did any of those contacts prompt further action or have anything to do with Joe Biden’s conduct in Ukraine in March 2016 when he forced Shokin’s firing?

***

Matt Wolking (Text TRUMP to 88022)

@MattWolking

Another FOIA’d email shows that Hunter Biden’s business partner and fellow Burisma board member Devon Archer was set to meet with Secretary of State John Kerry on March 2, 2016, a week after the email mentioning Hunter.

View image on Twitter

Matt Wolking (Text TRUMP to 88022)

@MattWolking

Email shows Hunter Biden started following Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken, a longtime national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, just as Ukrainian Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin announced a raid on the home of Burisma’s founder https://johnsolomonreports.com/hunter-bidens-ukraine-gas-firm-pressed-obama-administration-to-end-corruption-allegations-memos-show/ 

View image on Twitter

end

Rand Paul slams the mass media over the whistleblower..that is refusing to print his name (Ciaramella).  He is scolded the GOP for not protecting Trump

(zero hedge)

 

‘Do Your Job!’: Rand Paul Slams MSM And GOP Over Whistleblower Horsepucky

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) slammed the media for refusing to publish the name of the Trump-Ukraine whistleblower, despite it being one of the biggest open secrets in the Beltway. The Kentucky Republican also shot barbs at his GOP colleagues in Congress for not taking enough action to defend the president against the Democratic-led impeachment, according to the Washington Examiner.

“President Trump has great courage,” Paul said during a Monday evening Trump rally. “He faces down the fake media every day. But Congress needs to step up and have equal courage to defend the president.”

“We also now know the name of the whistleblower,” he added. “The whistleblower needs to come before Congress as a material witness because he worked with Joe Biden at the same time Hunter Biden was getting money from corrupt oligarchs. I say tonight to the media, ‘Do your job and print his name!‘ And I say this to my fellow colleagues in Congress, to every Republican in Washington, ‘Step up and subpoena Hunter Biden and subpoena the whistleblower!

The whistleblower was outed by RealClearPolitics‘ Paul Sperry last week as 33-year-old CIA employee Eric Ciaramella, whose attorneys would “neither confirm nor deny” that it was him.

 

Last month House Democrats launched impeachment proceedings against Trump based on Ciaramella’s second-hand whistleblower complaint alleging that the president abused his office by asking Ukraine to investigate former VP Joe Biden and his son Hunter, along with other matters.

end.

 

Chris Farrell goes over the facts that the impeachment process is one big sham

(courtesy Chris Farrell)

special thanks to G for sending this to us.

A Corrupt Resolution’s Damning Consequences

by Chris Farrell

 

  • We are not witnessing a legitimate impeachment process, and certainly not any form of justice recognizable in America since the Massachusetts Spring of 1693.
  • Will United States Attorney John Durham empanel a grand jury and indict anyone? What of the “journalists” in the overtly partisan American press corps? Will a brave US Senator dare to ask: “What did President Obama know, and when did he know it?”
  • While the House Intelligence Committee negligently fixates on carrying out their coup against the President, what are they missing from the real threats arrayed against our country?
House Resolution 660 is a false and maliciously dishonest legislative maneuver by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, intended retroactively to inoculate Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), et al. from their earlier “inquiry” abuses, and possible criminality. Pictured: Schiff and Pelosi at an October 2, 2019 press conference in Washington, DC. (Photo by Tom Brenner/Getty Images)

November, the month signaling the approach of winter, brings the American public the promise of a bitter, dishonest, political spectacle — casting a poisonous gloom over the traditional winter holidays celebrating faith and family. Worse — the long-term consequences may irreparably damage our constitutional republic.

House Resolution 660 is a false and maliciously dishonest legislative maneuver by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, intended retroactively to inoculate Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), et al. from their earlier “inquiry” abuses, and possible criminality. Criminality? Yes — abuse of power on a grand scale, as well as the violation of individual rights and constitutional due process guarantees can be criminal. Speaker Pelosi’s unilateral declaration on September 24, 2019, of an “official inquiry,” now bears the phony, partisan imprimatur of the House of Representatives, by a slim margin of 232-196.

We are not witnessing a legitimate impeachment process, and certainly not any form of justice recognizable in America since the Massachusetts Spring of 1693. Let’s examine the particular dishonest elements of Pelosi’s “Open and transparent investigative proceedings by the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence” — that’s Section 2 of her Resolution.

  • Schiff, unilaterally, decides “witness testimony relevant to the investigation.”
  • Schiff, unilaterally, controls subpoena authority.
  • Schiff, unilaterally, controls record production and evidence designation.
  • Schiff, unilaterally, controls written interrogatories.
  • Schiff, unilaterally, controls the outcome of Minority referrals to the Committee for reconsideration.
  • Schiff, unilaterally, controls all transcripts, to include: release, redactions and edits.
  • Schiff, unilaterally, controls “custody of records or other materials relating to the inquiry.”
  • Schiff, unilaterally, controls the final report.

“Open and transparent” — right.

I have written previously of the Schiff committee’s “Star Chamber” characteristics and activities. Now, with House Resolution 660, the aberration is the norm. Interestingly, opposition to the resolution was bipartisan: Two Democrats — Van Drew (NJ) and Peterson (MN) — joined all the Republicans and voted “No”. With Pelosi’s slim 36-vote margin of “victory”, the House of Representatives has engaged and enacted the odious philosophical principles of Legal Positivism — the perversion antithetical to the Founders’ Natural Law foundations in our Constitution. Legal Positivism gives us: “We say it’s legal, so it is.” Think about the historical lessons of that mephitic mentality. How does that end?

Assuming the worst about the conduct of the various committees of the House of Representatives — and it is entirely safe to do so — the Constitution’s “safety valve” remains the United States Senate.

Setting aside the Senate’s “Benedict Arnold Caucus” of weak, self-promoting, Establishment types – the phony “Impeachment” (predicated on the lies embroidered by Schiff from the criminal leaker and political operative masquerading as a “whistleblower”) will fail. It will fail in the Senate in a bipartisan fashion. There may not even be a trial, per se, as contemplated in the Constitution. The Senate can take the matter up and summarily dismiss it. That is what should happen — pray Senator Mitch McConnell (a master of parliamentary procedure) rises to the occasion.

Come November 2020, Trump will win reelection from an American public disgusted and fatigued by more than three years of hysterical, false exaggerations and near-Soviet levels of public corruption utterly contaminating federal law enforcement and our national intelligence apparatus. The Comey, Brennan, Clapper, Strzok, Page, McCabe, Ohr (add two dozen more names of senior officials — literally) “syndicate” would make J. Edgar Hoover blush.

What are the consequences for the Republic? Will it manifest itself as something more than a political-emotional “hangover” for the public? Will all future presidents face imminent impeachment by any House controlled by the opposing party? Will there be a 2021 version of the Church Committee to enact sweeping reforms with consequences and “teeth” to preclude the professional political operatives of the unlawful “fourth branch” of government from “resisting” the outcome of elections? Will United States Attorney John Durham empanel a grand jury and indict anyone? What of the “journalists” in the overtly partisan American press corps? Will a brave US Senator dare to ask: “What did President Obama know, and when did he know it?” While the House Intelligence Committee negligently fixates on carrying out their coup against the President, what are they missing from the real threats arrayed against our country? Surely, they can’t do more than one thing well at a time.

Next: How to recover from the aftermath of the damning consequences we face….

Chris Farrell is a former counterintelligence case officer. For the past 20 years, he has served as the Director of Investigations & Research for Judicial Watch. The views expressed are the author’s alone, and not necessarily those of Judicial Watch.

Gijsbert Groenewegen LLD
Silverarrowpartners
+1.646.247.1000
end
Part of the Genesis of the Russiagate.  This segment is concerning Stefan Halper
(zerohedge)

Portly, Well-Paid Spy Who Infiltrated Trump Campaign Source Of WaPo Disinformation On Flynn: Report

A 74-year-old spy who made headlines last year for infiltrating the 2016 Trump campaign was the source of disinformation that made its way to the Washington Post‘s David Ignatius regarding former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, according to The Federalist.

Stefan Halper, who was paid over $1 million by the Obama administration – was enlisted by the FBI to befriend and spy on three members of the Trump campaign during the 2016 US election.

And according to a recent court filing by Flynn’s attorney, Sidney Powell, Halper, the CIA, the FBI, and a Defense official used Russian-born academic Svetlana Lokhova to smear Flynn by feeding Ignatius information suggesting she was a Russian honeypot.

38-year-old Svetlana Lokhova met Flynn at the February 2014 Cambridge dinner organized by Sir Richard Dearlove – a former head of MI6 who was launching an organization called the Cambridge Security Initiative, according to the BBCAlso part of the organizing group was Halper.

 

Michael Flynn pictured at a 2014 dinner at the University of Cambridge (via Svetlana Lokhova)

General Flynn was the guest of honor and he sat on one side of the table in the middle. I sat on the opposite side of the table to Flynn next to Richard Dearlove because I was the only woman at dinner, and it’s a British custom that the only woman gets to sit next to the host,” Lokhova told Fox News, who added that she has never been alone with Flynn. On the contrary, the unplanned encounter was professional and mildly productive.

Ignatius, meanwhile, has somewhat of a reputation for being a ‘deep state’ media mouthpiece.

John Schindler

@20committee

When @IgnatiusPost speaks, Langley’s 7th floor lips are moving. Zero disrespect, just a fact.

They are taking traitor Trump out now.

Via The Federalist:

In last week’s court filing, Powell highlighted how the CIA, FBI, Halper, and possibly James Baker used the unnamed and unaware Lokhova and the complicit Ignatius to destroy Flynn. This James Baker is not the one who worked under James Comey at the FBI, but a James Baker in the Department of Defense Office of National Assessment.

Powell wrote:

Stefan Halper is a known long-time operative for the CIA/FBI. He was paid exorbitant sums by the FBI/CIA/DOD through the Department of Defense Department’s Office of Net Assessment in 2016. His tasks seem to have included slandering Mr. Flynn with accusations of having an affair with a young professor (a British national of Russian descent) Flynn met at an official dinner at Cambridge University when he was head of DIA in 2014. Flynn has requested the records of Col. James Baker because he was Halper’s ‘handler’ in the Office of Net Assessment in the Pentagon, and ONA Director Baker regularly lunched with Washington Post Reporter David Ignatius. Baker is believed to be the person who illegally leaked the transcript of Mr. Flynn’s calls to Ignatius. The defense has requested the phone records of James Clapper to confirm his contacts with Washington Post reporter Ignatius—especially on January 10, 2017, when Clapper told Ignatius in words to the effect of ‘take the kill shot on Flynn.’ It cannot escape mention that the press has long had transcripts of the Kislyak calls that the government has denied to the defense.

Lokhova has known of Halper’s role in targeting Flynn since Halper was outed as a CIA and FBI informant in May 2018. She then sued Halper and several media outlets for defamation after they falsely repeated Halper’s lies that she was a Russian spy engaged in an intrigue with Flynn.

***

Lokhova detailed the smear campaign in April, suing Halper and several media outlets for defamation. She also detailed what happened in a massive Twitter thread which you can read by clicking one of the tweets below:

Svetlana Lokhova@RealSLokhova

Good Morning America! Unless you are @thamburger and @IgnatiusPost at WaPo whose day is about to get ruined. (THREAD) (1)

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Svetlana Lokhova@RealSLokhova

They have ‘interesting’ friends and sources. (2)

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Meanwhile, read the rest of The Federalist‘s report her

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Solomon: Hunter Biden’s Ukraine gas firm pressed Obama administration to end corruption allegations, memos show – Hunter Biden and his Ukrainian gas firm colleagues had multiple contacts with the Obama State Department during the 2016 election cycle, including one just a month before Vice President Joe Biden forced Ukraine to fire the prosecutor investigating his son’s company for corruption, newly released memos show… they clearly show that Hunter Biden, his business partner and Burisma’s legal team were able to secure contacts inside the State Department, including to one of his father’s most trusted aides, to Secretary Kerry and to the agency’s top energy official.

    The question now is: Did any of those contacts prompt further action or have anything to do with Joe Biden’s conduct in Ukraine in March 2016 when he forced Shokin’s firing?

https://johnsolomonreports.com/hunter-bidens-ukraine-gas-firm-pressed-obama-administration-to-end-corruption-allegations-memos-show/

“It’s Incredible. The Scale of What JPMorgan Is Doing Is Mind-Boggling”

JPMorgan pushed more than $130bn of excess cash away from reserves in the process significantly tightening overall liquidity in the interbank market , the bulk of this money was allocated to long-dated bonds while cutting the amount of loans it holds, in what the FT dubbed was a “major shift in how the largest US bank by assets manages its enormous balance sheet.”…

    The biggest US bank by assets shrank its loans portfolio by 4%, or about $40bn, year to date; at the same time as selling off mortgages, the bank has reduced the amount of cash on its balance sheet and used it to buy long-dated bonds…

   Charles Peabody of Portales Partners, who projects a bleak outlook for the banking industry, sees JPMorgan’s balance sheet choices as part of a larger risk-reduction strategy. The bank, he said, was “acting like the [next] recession is here — everything the bank is doing points that way.”…

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/its-incredible-scale-what-jpmorgan-doing-mind-boggling

Banks tightened standards on credit cards in third quarter, Fed survey finds

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-tightened-standards-on-credit-cards-in-third-quarter-fed-survey-finds-2019-11-04

CNBC: Wall Street donors are so worried about Elizabeth Warren that they are snubbing Democrats in 2020 Senate races

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/04/wall-street-shuns-chuck-schumer-donation-requests-as-elizabeth-warren-surges.html

WaPo: U.S. will withdraw from Paris climate agreement, Trump administration says on first day it can give official notice

FT last night: U.S. Considers Removing Some Tariffs on China

Officials debate rolling back levies on $112bn of goods to secure broader ceasefire deal

https://www.ft.com/content/4f6580dc-ff53-11e9-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47

CIA, FBI Informant Was Washington Post Source for Russiagate Smears

These close connections between the Washington Post’s David Ignatius and people connected to U.S. and U.K. intelligence raise grave concerns about the deep state using media to push propaganda.

    The Federalist has learned that the now-outed CIA and FBI informant Stefan Halper served as a source for Washington Post reporter David Ignatius, providing more evidence that the intelligence community has co-opted the press to push anti-Trump conspiracy theories…

https://thefederalist.com/2019/11/04/scoop-cia-fbi-informant-was-washington-post-source-for-russiagate-smears/

 

Growing Indicators of Brennan’s CIA Trump Task Force by Larry C Johnson [ex-CIA analyst]

The average American has no idea how alarming is the news that former CIA Director John Brennan reportedly created and staffed a CIA Task Force in early 2016 that was named, Trump Task Force, and given the mission of spying on and carrying out covert actions against the campaign of candidate Donald Trump…  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/11/larry-c-johnson-growing-indicators-of-brennans-cia-trump-task-force/

Mary Beth Long @LongDefense FMR Asst Sec Defense, Chair NATO’s HLG, CIA Clandestine ServiceThis is consistent with what I was told over a year ago.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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