NOV 25/COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRED TONIGHT..NOW WE AWAIT THE OTC/LBMA OPTIONS EXPIRY THIS FRIDAY//GOLD DOWN $6.45 TO $1457.15//SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TO $16.91//WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A HUGE NO OF OZ STAND IN THE UPCOMING DEC GOLD CONTRACT MONTH//PRO DEMOCRACY CANDIDATES WIN IN HONG KONG ELECTION//LEBANON RUNS OUT OF DOLLARS AS ATMS SPITS BACK CITIZENS CARDS.//HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1457.15 DOWN $6.45    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$16.91 DOWN 12 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1454.90

 

silver:  $16.90

 

We now enter options expiry for the November contract month.

The Comex options expired today:  Monday Nov 25/2019

London’s OTC/LBMA Nov 29.2019

Three more reading days before first day notice

 

gold/silver prices will be subdued until the conclusion of the week.

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/7

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,463.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/22/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 11/26/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 7 7
MONTH TO DATE: 1,717

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 7 NOTICE(S) FOR 700 OZ (0.0017 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1717 NOTICES FOR 171,700 OZ  (5.3405 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR NOV

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 532 for 2,660,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 6986 UP 219 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7154 UP 257

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL  SIZED 439 CONTRACTS FROM 223,340 UP TO 223,779 DESPITE THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX DURING  ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS..

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR NOV 0,; DEC  413 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  413 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 413 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 413 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.065 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.665     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

FRIDAY, THE CROOKS ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER  RAID ON SILVER AND GOLD AS OPTIONS ON THE COMEX EXPIRE ON MONDAY… THEY AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR  SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE ( IT WAS DOWN 6 CENTS ). ALSO OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG 1152 CONTRACTS. OR 5.76 MILLION OZ…..THE RAID BY OUR BANKERS FAILED AS THEY COULD  NOT COVER ANY OF THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV:

36,170 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 36,170 CONTRACTS) OR 180.85 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2127 CONTRACTS OR 10.63 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  180.85 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 25.83% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1780.44   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 2019 ISSUANCE:                                                           146.14 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 439, DESPITE THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 413 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1152 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 413 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 439  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER (FOLLOWING ANOTHER RAID), AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.03 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.121 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 160% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 10,180 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING AWAY FROM THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS   AT 692,465.   ALL OF THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS 

THE LOSS IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED WITH A TINY $1.00 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// FRIDAY// /

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 9159 CONTRACTS:

NOV 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  6950 CONTRACTS; FEB: 2209 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 692,465,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD AND CRIMINALLY SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1,021 CONTRACTS: 10,180 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9159 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 1021 CONTRACTS OR 102,100 OZ OR 3.175 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $1.00 IN GOLD TRADING ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS…….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE STILL  HAD A GOOD LOSS IN GOLD TONNAGE ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3.175  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS AGAIN INITIATED. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $1.00) .THEY WERE DEFINITELY NOT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS THE ENTIRE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS.. 

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 149,962 CONTRACTS OR 14,996,200 oz OR 466.44 TONNES (17 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8821 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 466.44 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 466.44/3550 x 100% TONNES =13.12% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5146,60  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 10,180 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($1.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9,159 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9,159 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED LOSS OF 1,021 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9,159 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,180 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 3.175 TONNES). ..AND THIS LACK OF   DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.00 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING/RAID AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

we had:  7 notice(s) filed upon for 700 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

no changes in gold inventory at the GLD

NOV 25/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 891.79 tonnes

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

end

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 413 CONTRACTS from 223,340 UP TO 223,779 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR NOV. 0; FOR DEC  413  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 413 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 439  CONTRACTS TO THE 413 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 1152 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.76 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 413 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.88 POINTS OR 0.72%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 397.46 POINTS OR 1.50%   /The Nikkei closed UP 179.93 POINTS OR 0.78%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .28%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0351 /Oil DOWN TO 57.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0351 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0325 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)Hong Kong

Hong Kong as expected elects pro democracy candidates amid record turnout.  The big protest organizer also

wins his seat

(zerohedge)

ii)China

Chinese officials state that phase two is nowhere on the horizon
(zerohedge)

iii)Very scary!!  China’s important momentum indicator signals more downside as the world’s global economy falters(zerohedge)

iv)This comes from the Chinese media: do not be surprised to see that the next country to cut rates to zero is China itself.

(zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Uk// Fed,/Hong Kong

Michael E//Hong very of Rabobank discusses important events of today including the huge lead in the UK upcoming election

Michael Every/Rabobank)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran

Iran holds major air war games as additional USA forces enter the Gulf

(zerohedge)

ii)LEBANON

Dollars have totally disappeared from Lebanon as this once proud jewel of the Middle East approaches bankruptcy.
Protests continue on a daily basis as many cannot get their money out. Lebanon has an extremely high amount off official gold at 289 tonnes. to which the west would surely want to get its hands on
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)the state of affairs inside Sweden: migration has caused high unemployment as these migrants are not skilled and did not learn the Swedish language.

(Bergman/Gatestone)

ii)Saxo bank describes the fact that there has been so much liquidity injected into the global economy that it is impossible to withdraw it.  Due to the huge amount of debt in the globe it will be impossible to raise rates

(zerohedge/Saxo bank)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

What planet is this guy on:  he is totally unaware of the manipulation of the gold price.

(GATA/Kitco)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

A very important national index on USA economic activity. It plunged to a two year low

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

We told you that the repo mess is not going away. The new Fed 42 day repo is oversubscribed in a scramble for year end liquidity

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)This is getting juicier by the minute:  Now we learn that the Hunter Biden company Rosemont Capital received over $130 million i Federal loans while Joe Biden was Vice President.  Huge conflict!

(zerohedge)

ii)This is a very important read:  John Solomon’s 28 facts crashing the debunked conspiracy  of the Democrats

(John Solomon)

iii)Another very read…the history of how the Ukraine came to be and how this nation is in the Russian sphere of influence and not the West,

(David Stockman

iv)Seems that Joe Biden has just threatened Lindsay Graham(zerohedge)

v)After a poor showing these past several days, it looks like the Democrats are getting cold feed on impeachment

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A  STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED 10,180 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 692,465 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $1.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S   RAID // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9159 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR NOV; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 6950 ; FEB: 2209  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9159 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 1021 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9159 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 10,180 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE WITH THE CONSIDERABLE RAID INITIATED, AS IT FELL BY $1.00. AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY NOT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS  AS THEIR ENTIRE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS.

 

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  1,021 CONTRACTS OR 102100 OZ OR 3.175 TONNES.

We are now in the  NON active contract month of NOV.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Today we have 21 contracts still standing for a LOSS of 22 contracts. Yesterday we had 16 notices served upon so we have a loss of 6 contracts or an additional 600 oz will not stand as these guys could not find any metal over here as they morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next active delivery month after NOV is the  active contract month of DECEMBER. Here we had a loss of 38,697 contracts( with a considerable loss due to the liquidation of spreaders) down to 210,845.   The next non active contract month of January saw its OI FALL by 173 contracts DOWN to 567.

The December contract month is still highly elevated and we should have a humdinger of a DECEMBER delivery month. WE HAVE 3 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE: NOV 29.2019.

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY:  (AND REMEMBER THAT SPREADING LIQUIDATION WAS ALREADY IN FULL FORCE LAST YEAR)

WITH 3 READING DAYS TO GO:  NOV 2018:  146,212 OI CONTRACTS STILL STANDING

AND TODAY:  210,845 CONTRACTS STANDING.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE LAST YR: 27.57 TONNES OF GOLD INITIALLY STOOD

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 7 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  1600 OZ. (0.0497 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 439 CONTRACTS FROM 223,340 UP TO 223,779 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.  HERE WE HAVE 0 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER NOVEMBER WE HAVE THE  ACTIVE MONTH OF DECEMBER and here he has a loss of 8,657 contracts down to 49,000.  After December we have the non active month of January and here we see that we gained 99 contracts up to 655.

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY:

WITH 3 DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE:

NOV 2018 :  51,154 OI CONTRACTS STILL STANDING

NOV 2019:   49,000 OI CONTRACTS STILL STANDING

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE LAST YR: 17.53 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

THE SPREADERS ARE NOT IN SILVER BUT WILL MORPH ONCE JAN BEGINS.

PLEASE NOTE THE HUGE DIFFERENCE IN GOLD AND SILVER WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT STANDING. SOME BIG WHALE IS TAKING ON THE GOLD/COMEX. 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil, OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 392,631  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  426,978  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 22/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

1157.400

 

bns

 

36 KILOBARS

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
7 notice(s)
 700 OZ
(0.0017 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
14 contracts
(1400 oz)
0.0435 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1717 notices
171700 OZ
5.3405 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account and this is a phony entry

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

ii) Into Bank of Nova Scotia:  1157.400 oz
(36 kilobars)

compare with Brinks below..

 

total gold deposits: 1157.400   oz

 

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  1157.436 oz  ( not kilobars).. why so close to BNS’ 36 kilobars??

ii ) Out of HSBC: 9765.055

 

total withdrawals:  10,922.491 oz

 

We had 1 adjustment

i) Out of Delaware:

104.56 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of Delaware and this landed into the customer account :  and a deemed settlement at .0032 tonnes

 

 

 

no increase of pledged gold

 

FOR THE NOV 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 7 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1717) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV (21 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (7 x 100 oz per contract) equals 173,100 OZ OR 5.3841 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of NOV

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1717 x 100 oz)  + (21)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today 7 x (100 oz )which equals 173,100 oz standing OR 5.3841 TONNES in this  active delivery month of NOV

We LOST 6 contracts OR 600 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL NOT STAND AS THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS NO PHYSICAL GOLD COULD BE FIND ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THEY ALSO  ACCEPTED A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR HARD WORK.

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 27.38 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 4 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..     OCT…..   37.99 TONNES

AND NOW NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT, IN SEPT, 3 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.60155 TONNES. IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST FEW MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 4.4614 TONNES SETTLED

IF WE ADD THE FOUR DELIVERY MONTHS: 75.9796

TONNES- 4.4614 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 71.5182 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 27.38 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,118,446.07 oz or  34.788 tonnes 
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 88,038.94 oz (27.38 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC which cannot settle upon:  238,056.656 oz  ( 7.4045 tonnes and this includes 50.301 tonnes pledged by jpmorgan
total registered pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,506,990.2210 oz 264.60 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.
INCREASE IN GOLD OZ PLEDGED:  50.301 OZ ATTRIBUTED TO  JPMORGAN

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 103 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
NOV 22 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,800,233.100 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  532 contracts

2,660,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil

 

ii) Into everybody else; 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.10% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/315.22 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil   oz

 

we have 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of CNT:  619,987.04 oz

ii) Out of BNS:  1180,246.06 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 1800,233.100  oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  77.754 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.404 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 532 x 5,000 oz = 2,660,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (0) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2019 contract month: 532 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (0)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals 2,630,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE GAINED 0 contracts or an additional 30,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  94,010 CONTRACTS //volume increases due to raid

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 109,545 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 109,545 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 548 million  OZ 78.28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.89% ((NOV 25/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.68% to NAV (NOV 25/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.89%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.51 TRADING 13.97///DISCOUNT  3.73

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 25/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 891.79 tonnes

*IN LAST 711 TRADING DAYS: 44.58 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 611 TRADING DAYS: A NET 122.47 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

 

 

NOV 25:  SLV INVENTORY

374.732 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.01/ and libor 6 month duration 1.91

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .10

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.93%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.91

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

U.S. Empire Ending and “Life Might Look Like It Did In 1910”: Rickards Interview

Watch Video Here

Have we learned the lessons of 2008? Stand-up comedians Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster interview James Rickards

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold prices end lower for the week

Gold prices ease as strong U.S. data lifts dollar, yields

Trump’s Fed Pick Judy Shelton Cast Doubt on Central Bank Independence

China attacks US at G20 as the world’s biggest source of instability

Record turnout in Hong Kong local elections amid calls for full democracy

Watch Podcast Here

GOLD PRICES (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

22-Nov-19 1471.30 1464.45, 1143.05 1140.22 & 1330.35 1326.06
19-Nov-19 1464.90 1468.45, 1132.37 1134.23 & 1323.68 1325.86
18-Nov-19 1458.40 1467.65, 1124.86 1132.59 & 1318.10 1325.88
15-Nov-19 1465.60 1466.90, 1138.04 1136.41 & 1329.59 1327.84
14-Nov-19 1467.65 1466.65, 1141.39 1142.52 & 1334.24 1333.18
13-Nov-19 1463.45 1462.90, 1138.86 1140.62 & 1328.23 1328.46
12-Nov-19 1455.00 1452.05, 1134.03 1130.42 & 1319.69 1318.17
11-Nov-19 1465.50 1458.70, 1144.41 1132.39 & 1328.33 1321.87
08-Nov-19 1466.85 1464.15, 1144.58 1142.62 & 1328.09 1328.13
07-Nov-19 1484.10 1484.25, 1153.44 1156.82 & 1339.40 1341.76

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

What planet is this guy on:  he is totally unaware of the manipulation of the gold price.

(GATA/Kitco)

In Kitco interview, ‘analyst’ marvels dumbly at lethargy of gold price

 Section: 

11:51a ET Saturday, November 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Kitco yesterday quoted a “senior market strategist” expressing cluelessness about the recent lethargy of the gold price. The report was headlined “Gold Price Has ‘Every Reason in the World to Rally’; Why Isn’t It?” and it can be found here:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-11-22/Gold-price-has-every-reason-in-the…

From the Kitco report:

“‘Gold is not looking great. It’s got every reason to rally in the world and it can’t right now. That’s a problem,’ RJO Futures senior market strategist Phillip Streible told Kitco News on Friday. ‘The Federal Reserve cut rates three times this year. It is a race to the bottom globally with central banks. The Fed is embarking on somewhat of a QE with this repo rate. You have protests going on everywhere. In Iran they burnt down the central bank. In Lebanon there is a run on the banks. And Hong Kong protests are escalating.'”

… 

But neither Streible nor his interviewer tried to answer the question Kitco’s headline posed. They did not pursue an explanation of the longstanding counterintuivity of the gold price.

Was it really possible for them not to be aware of central bank intervention in the monetary metals and currency markets? Have they really never come across the monthly gold swaps and derivatives undertaken by the Bank for International Settlements, or the CME Group’s Central Bank Incentive Program for central banks surreptitiously trading futures contracts on U.S. exchanges?

Have they never noticed the many admissions made by central bankers about these interventions when they have thought that only their colleagues were paying attention?

Have they ever tried putting to central banks and governments a critical question about such interventions?

What sort of market “strategy” takes no account of them?

Or should Kitco’s audience simply be grateful for the acknowledgment that there’s something odd about the gold “market” and forgive the “analyst” and his interviewer for lacking the courage to go any farther?

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

Pam and Russ Martens: It’s official — JPMorgan is riskiest big bank in U.S.

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, November 25, 2019

The National Information Center is a little-known repository of bank data collected by the Federal Reserve. It is part of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, which was created by federal legislation to create uniformity in the examination of U.S. financial institutions by the numerous federal regulators of banks.

Quietly, the National Information Center has done something that has likely made Jamie Dimon hopping mad. Dimon is the chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase who has bragged perpetually in his annual letter to shareholders about how the bank he leads has a “fortress balance sheet.” But now the National Information Center has created a graphic profile of JPMorgan Chase versus its peer banks. The graphics crunch a series of important financial metrics at JPMorgan Chase, showing it to be the riskiest bank in the United States. …

… For the remainder of the commentary: …

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/11/its-official-jpmorgan-chase-is-th…

end

I am not sure about this Jan: “Central banks are becoming more honest about gold.”

Jan Nieuwenhuijis is writing now under his own name.  (before Koos Jansen)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Central banks becoming more honest about gold

 Section: 

12:10p ET Monday, November 25, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Western central banks and particularly those of Germany and France lately have been acknowledging gold’s crucial role in the international monetary system, Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes today at Finland’s Voima Gold internet site.

Nieuwenhuijs observes: “After the global financial crisis, not only have Western central banks changed the way they talk about gold — that is, they have become more honest regarding gold’s function as a safe haven — but, as a sector, central banks have also become net buyers. Many central banks have redistributed their gold, carefully considering all possible future risks and developments.

… 

“A few central banks have upgraded their gold to current industry standards to be able to trade frictionlessly in international markets. One central bank, the Banque de France, has even enhanced its entire vaulting infrastructure. And this is just based upon publicly available information.”

Nieuwenhuijis’ commentary is headlined “German Central Bank: Gold Is the Bedrock of Stability for the International Monetary System” and it’s posted at Voima Gold here:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/german-central-bank-gold-is-the-bedroc…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

This is a big story.  Poland purchases 126 tonnes of gold last and this and then repatriates that back to Warsaw.  They now have 228.6 tonnes of official gold.

Poland Repatriates 100 Tons of Gold From Bank of England Storage

Bloomberg//November 25, 2019

Poland Repatriates 100 Tons of Gold From Bank of England Storage

(Bloomberg) — Poland brought about 100 tons of gold home from the Bank of England in a bid to demonstrate the strength of nation’s $586 billion economy, central bank Governor Adam Glapinski said.

The institution bought about 126 tons in 2018 and 2019 to increase its gold reserves to 228.6 tons. As a result, the country has become the 22nd-biggest bullion holder in the world and has the biggest reserves of the metal in the European Union’s east, the central bank said.

Glapinski said the central bank will keep bringing the precious metal home if the “reserve situation is favorable.”

“The gold symbolizes the strength of the country,” Glapinski told reporters on Monday. Poland could generate “multi-billion” profits if it sold its holdings but has no plans to do so, he said.

Central banks, including those of Hungary and Serbia, loaded up on gold in the first half of 2019, helping push total bullion demand to a three-year high, according to the World Gold Council. Central banks around the world have been adding to reserves as economic growth slows, trade and geopolitical tensions rise, and authorities seek to diversify away from the dollar.

Poland had $121.9 billion in official reserves, including gold, as of Oct. 31.

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0351/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0325   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 20.88 POINTS OR 0.72%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 397.96 POINTS OR 1.50%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 179.93 POINTS OR 0.78%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.33/Euro FALLS TO 1.1013

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.08/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.88/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.62 and Brent: 63.35

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.35%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.18% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.53: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.37

3k Gold at $1457.00 silver at: 16.90   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.94

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.88 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9983 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0995 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.35%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.79% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.23%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7416..

Futures Fly On Trade Optimism Amid Barrage Of Megamergers

After some jittery days last week, when it seemed that optimism for a Phase 1 “deal” was cracking, all concerns were set aside over the weekend as investors cheered China’s decision to issue guidelines and raise penalties for intellectual property theft, a move many said boosted the chances of a trade deal between the world’s largest economies while ignoring an offsetting Reuters report that a “Phase 2” of the deal may not happen any time soon if ever. A subsequent tweet by the Global Times said that China and the U.S. are “very close” to reaching a phase one trade deal, citing unidentified experts close to the Chinese government, while the positive sentiment was boosted by a barrage of mega-mergers including:

As a result, global equities were a sea of green, with the MSCI All-Country World Index up 0.2% by midday in London while treasuries and the yen both declined:

“China being prepared to look at intellectual property is obviously the catalyst for a nice move higher, or a return to the highs earlier this month,” said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets in London.

Contracts across US equity futures all pointed to a solid start with the S&P set to open just shy of an all time high…

… despite a sharp drop by Uber Technologies which was in the spotlight following a failed bid to get a new license to operate in London.

European shares rose for the second straight session following reports that Washington and Beijing were nearing a trade agreement. The Stoxx 600 index was up 0.7% at 1200 GMT, led by trade-sensitive mining firms although all 19 industry sectors of the Stoxx 600 in the green following from a broad-based rally in Asia, after China said it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights. Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, FTSE 100 outperforms, +0.7%. Gains in Europe being led by basic resources, travel & leisure and household & personal sectors. Despite negative earnings growth and weak economic fundamentals in Europe, DAX futures are approaching all-time highs and today’s IFO survey (Nov) showed improvement as expected lifting sentiment. As Saxo Bank notes, STOXX 600 valuation could soon be a stopping point for the momentum rally as the index trades 20.2x on P/E compared to 20.7x for S&P 500 with the latter index clearly showing better numbers and powered by technology monopolies. However, on 12-month forward basis European equities are still trading on a P/E discount but that’s only because consensus EPS growth over the next 12 months is 34% which would require an impressive rebound in Asia growth.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a second day with MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex Japan bouncing 0.7%, led by material producers, as investors assessed Hong Kong’s record election turnout and China’s pledge to step up protection of intellectual property rights. Most markets in the region were up, with Hong Kong leading gains and Indonesia retreating. Japan’s Topix closed 0.7% higher, with electronic firms and chemical producers among the biggest boosts. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.7%, snapping a three-day losing streak, as large financial firms and energy producers offered strong support. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 1.5% after pro-democracy candidates swept the board in district council elections. India’s Sensex advanced, heading for a record close, amid hopes for more government stimulus to counter the slowest pace of growth in six years.

In separate news, China was planning a record sale of sovereign bonds in dollars, with a potential $6 billion offering, Bloomberg reported.

The irony is that as long as the deal keeps getting pushed back, stocks will just keep rising as optimism just grows and grows, even if the status quo is ultimately one that pushes the global economy into a recession. And yet even though the same dynamic has been obvious since the summer of 2018, analysts keep repeating that there is no more upside from trade rumors, when one look at the S&P shows they are clearly wrong:

“A ‘phase one’ deal is now priced into markets; there isn’t much upside that will come from that unless they announce something like a complete rollback of the tariffs imposed, (but) that doesn’t really seem likely,” said Simona Gambarini, markets economist at Capital Economics.

“The markets are pretty much priced for a deal to go ahead, and that may be the case, but we may see that pushed out to 2020,” said Saxo market strategist Eleanor Creagh. “The key sticking point is really going to be the rolling back of tariffs.”

While US stocks are headed for a third month of gains, there have been several notable divergences between the S&P and virtually every other asset class as we showed over the weekend as doubts about the rally remain and bonds and other haven investments seem well-supported. While the S&P 500 Index rose on Friday after President Donald Trump said he was “very close” to a trade pact, the yield on 10-year U.S. notes has steadied around 1.78%, down from the three-month intraday high of 1.97% touched in early November.

The divergence is not just between bonds and stocks, but between US and international stocks.

In fx, the dollar was steady against its major peers and was near a 10-day high against the euro hit after its rally on Friday when U.S. manufacturing surveys beat forecasts, just as European Union numbers disappointed.  Rising Germany business morale in November did not help the euro, which traded 0.1% lower at $1.1014. Munich-based Ifo’s business climate index rose to 95.0 in November from 94.7 in October. The November reading was in line with a Reuters consensus forecast. The yen fell against most major peers as haven bids waned and overall risk appetite got a boost after China sought to bridge a gap in U.S. trade talks by taking a stricter line on intellectual property rights. The pound led G-10 currency gains as latest pre-election opinion polls showed the ruling Conservative Party maintaining its lead. Sweden’s krona touched an almost four-month high on the improved global sentiment and expectations of a Riksbank rate hike next month.

In rates, bond markets were not moving much, with UST yields steady to 1bp higher across 2-yr through 10-yr tenors, same with German bonds. The Treasury 2s10s curve was flat at just above 14 bps, a sharp drop in recent weeks and sparking concerns of another economic slowdown. ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday called on euro zone governments to strengthen domestic demand.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks later on Monday and is expected to underline the steady outlook for rates given the better economic figures.

In geopolitics, North Korea leader Kim visited a military site and urged the army to be prepared for regular mobilization, while it was also reported that they will increase war-like drills. Elsewhere, Turkey was reportedly testing the S-400’s radar system, which sent the turkish lira sharply lower on the day.

In commodities, West Texas-grade oil futures drifted, after ending Friday barely changed on the week. Bitcoin fell as much as 11% and headed for its ninth weekday session of declines, the longest losing streak in a year. Gold was down $4 to $1,457.10/ounce.

Looking at the day ahead, we get the US Chicago Fed October national activity index, Dallas Fed November manufacturing activity. Agilent, HP Enterprise and Palo Alto Networks are reporting earnings. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Monday at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce annual dinner in Providence, Rhode Island.

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Boris Johnson unveiled a safety-first program of policies for a “sensible” Conservative government as he aimed to consolidate his lead in opinion polls ahead of the Dec. 12 U.K. general election.
  • China is planning a record sale of sovereign bonds in dollars, with a potential $6 billion offering, according to people familiar with the discussions. The Ministry of Finance is considering tenors of three years, five years, 10 years and 20 years, according to the people, who asked not to be named as the talks aren’t public.
  • Hong Kong residents handed an overwhelming victory to pro-democracy candidates in a vote for local district councils on Sunday. Pro-democracy candidates won 86% seats of the 444 seats counted as of 9 a.m., official results showed, with eight seats still up for grabs. In the last election in 2015, they had won about a quarter of all seats.
  • Oil was steady near a two-month high as optimism over progress toward a limited U.S.-China trade deal was balanced with investor fatigue due to the long-running negotiations.
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s late entry into the presidential race highlights the deep philosophical divide animating the Democratic contest – putting his experience, his reputation and his fortune behind the argument that a pragmatic centrist pledging competent government is what’s needed to take down an unconventional president
  • The International Monetary Fund cut its 2019 economic growth forecast for Japan for a third time this year amid heightened risks from the global slowdown and called on the government not to tighten its spending stance for now
  • U.S. companies have sold 12.9 billion pounds ($16.6 billion) of sterling bonds this year, the biggest full-year tally since 2007. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. are among borrowers to issue pound debt, partly due to U.K. bond buyers seeking overseas investments to help offset domestic Brexit risks
  • The Swiss National Bank has additional room to cut its already negative interest rate, the central bank’s Chief Economist Carlos Lenz told Swiss Sunday newspaper NZZ am Sonntag in an interview
  • Bets that the U.S. currency will strengthen against its major counterparts slipped last week to the lowest level since the start of July, according to CFTC data

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,119.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 406.85
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 164.82
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 526.66
  • Nikkei up 0.8% to 23,292.81
  • Topix up 0.7% to 1,702.96
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 26,993.04
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,906.17
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 40,852.17
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,731.41
  • Kospi up 1% to 2,123.50
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to -0.355%
  • Euro down 0.07% to $1.1013
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.836%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 0.402%
  • Brent futures up 0.1% to $63.47/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,458.37
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed 98.29

Asian equity markets began the week on a positive note with sentiment underpinned by encouraging reports from the Greater China region in which Beijing released fresh guidelines to increase penalties on IP theft and after protesters eased tensions in Hong Kong for elections where pro-Democracy candidates achieved a landslide victory. ASX 200 (+0.3%) was led higher by the trade sensitive sectors such as tech and materials although financials lagged amid continued losses in Westpac due to the AUSTRAC breaches which prompted its Chairman Maxsted to put CEO Hartzer on notice that he could be fired if the scandal continues to destabilise the reputation of the bank, while Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) was underpinned by a weaker currency and with commodity-related sectors front running the advances. Hang Seng (+1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) conformed to the optimism after China’s steps to increase penalties on IP theft, which despite being vague in its promise, is still seen as an effort to appease the US side. In addition, Hong Kong was buoyed following the District Council elections where protests quietened to avert the risk of a cancellation and in which the pan-democratic camp won more than six-fold the number of seats than the pro-Beijing establishment, although gains in the mainland were to a lesser extent following a substantial CNY 180bln net liquidity drain by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively uneventful as focus centred on riskier assets, but with mild gains seen amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 890bln of JGBs with varying maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Alibaba Climbs in Gray Market Before Hong Kong IPO Debut
  • Dubai Islamic Bank Board Agrees to Buy Noor Bank Via Share Swap

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%) are modestly firmer in quiet Monday morning trade (but off highs), as the region continues to benefit from weekend tailwinds in the form of further promises from the Chinese on IP and an easing of tensions in Hong Kong to allow for elections. Sectors are all in the green, with Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%) and Materials (+0.8%) in the lead, with the former boosted by outperformance in LVMH (+2.0%) after the luxury goods maker agreed to purchase Tiffany & Co. (+6.0% pre-market) for USD 135/shr, or USD 16.3bln. Further consolidation within the industry has prompted other luxury names, including Christian Dior (+2.0%), Richemont (+1.8%) and Kering (+0.9%) to move higher in sympathy. Elsewhere in M&A, Novartis (+0.4%) has agreed to acquire The Medicines Co. for a transaction value of USD 9.7bln on a fully diluted basis that includes outstanding stock options and convertible debt. Moreover, BHP (+1.1%) caught a bid amid price action within the base-metal complex, whilst reports stated that the Co. reportedly intends to increase its stake in SolGold further to 14.7% from 11%. In other notable stock specific news; IAG (+0.9%) are higher after British Airways agreed to a pilot pay deal to stop strike action with pilot union Balpa. Petrofac (-1.7%) is lower on the news that it had been identified as the energy Co. accused of having fake account for the purpose of disguising bribe payment to foreign government officials. Finally, of note for Just Eat (+0.2%); US competitor Uber (-5.6% pre-market) was not granted an operating license from London’s public transport regulator TfL.

Top European News

  • Johnson Unveils ‘Sensible’ Manifesto to Keep Tories in Power
  • German Business Expectations Gain, But Fall Short of Forecasts
  • Sweden’s SVT to Broadcast New Money Laundering Report on Nov. 27

 

In FX, the USD and Index kick-start a new week relatively directionless amid consolidation from Friday’s advances. The Dollar succumbed to slight pressure in APAC/early EU hours from trade developments over the weekend after vague reports that China will tighten laws around IP theft, which is seen as a step to appease the US amid stumbling blocks in Phase 1 talks. DXY remains above the 98.00 mark and around recent highs (98.30) and having sound support at its 50 DMA at 98.22. Meanwhile, the CNH feel some reprieve amid the China steps coupled with a firmer-than-forecast PBoC fixing. USD/CNH hovers around 7.0300 having gapped lower at the open last night, currency nearer to the bottom of the 7.0280-0420 daily band.

  • GBP, EUR – Sterling stands as the marked outperformer thus far and stages similar gains to last Monday as some weekend polls show a steady uptrend in the Conservative’s lead over the Labour party. Furthermore, analysis on YouGov data could be adding further fuel to the bullish fire as it projects the market-friendly Tory party with a parliamentary majority of 48. Cable has reclaimed 1.2850+ status having currently clocked in a range of 1.2842-85 as it eclipses its 21 DMA at 1.2878. Meanwhile, the Single Currency remains relatively uneventful and little swayed by the German Ifo Survey which printed a modest improvement in the three metrics but was caveated by cautious comments from the institute, who noted that it is too early to speak of a German economic turnaround. EUR/USD stay afloat just above 1.1000 with touted support around 1.0990-94 should the round figure be breached with ECB’s Mersch and Lane the EZ highlights post-Ifo, although some calendars also highlight hawk Holzmann on the docket.
  • AUD, NZD, JPY – All moving according with risk, albeit antipodeans have drifted off highs (amid a firming Buck) following an upbeat APAC performance due their China exposure and in light of the aforementioned China IP announcement, seemingly a concession in trade talks with the US. Further, Hong Kong saw a more peaceful weekend as local elections went underway – which concluded with a landslide win for the pro-democratic candidates and hopes of calm in the region in the aftermath. AUD/USD trades flat intraday having tested 0.6800 to the upside overnight (with AUD 800mln in options expiring between strikes 0.6780-90), although pressure on the Aussie could also stem from the AUD/NZD cross which backed off after failing to breach 1.06 to the upside. The cross also keeps the Kiwi buoyed and still above 0.6400 vs. the USD, having traded within a 20-pip range thus far. Elsewhere, USD/JPY hovers near session highs after printing a high of 108.90 in early trade after surpassing its 21 DMA at 108.76 with added upside in the pair as the Dollar gains traction.
  • EM – The Lira experiences renewed pressure amid reports that Turkey is testing the radars on the Russian made S-400 missile systems, thus potentially prompting backlash from US lawmakers who have threatened CAATSA sanctions should the system be activated. The news of the tests largely overshadows reports of Turkey ceasing military operations in Northern Syria as per its agreement with Russia. USD/TRY topped its 100 and 21 DMAs (5.7100 and 5.7317 respectively) ahead of potential resistance at its 50 DMA (5.7500) with eyes now on any action from US Congress.

In commodities, crude markets are in consolidation, with WTI and Brent front months contracts rangebound just below the USD 58.00/bbl and USD 63.80/bbl levels respectively, as the complex largely fails to garner any impetus from the more favourable macro backdrop. Crude specific news flow has been on the light side; there have been some scheduling updates – JMMC and OPEC meetings will reportedly both take place on the 5th of December, with OPEC+ meeting a day later. In terms of the metals; more favourable risk appetite has seen copper advance; the red metal managed to eke out two-week highs and trades just above its 21 DMA at USD 2.6567/lb. Meanwhile, lack of demand for havens sees gold under pressure; the precious metal is now rangebound around the USD 1458/oz level. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures climbed over 3.0% with upside attributed to trade optimism amid the latest headlines.

Goldman Sachs sees 2019 WTI prices at USD 56.90/bbl and 2020 at USD 55.50/bbl, while it sees 2020 non-OPEC supply to increase 2.1mln bpd and demand growth of 1.2mln bpd. Goldman Sachs said its 2020 top trade recommendation is long oil-heavy enhanced S&P GSCI Index and that it sees oil returns of 10% next year despite maintaining USD 60/bbl oil forecast, while it affirmed its bullish gold target of USD 1600/oz. (Newswires)

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.2, prior -0.4
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -3.8, prior -5.1
  • 7pm: Powell Speaks in Rhode Island After Visiting Hartford, Conn.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Hope you had a good weekend. The biggest shock to me was that I saw that it was 28 years ago yesterday that Freddie Mercury died. I couldn’t believe it was that long ago but then I remembered an amusing story that reminded me it was. Queen guitarist Brian May went to my school and sent his son there too. He was 4-5 years younger and whenever we walked passed him in the corridor we would invariably think ourselves very funny to sing Bohemian Rhapsody quietly. Anyway at parents evening the week after Freddie Mercury sadly died our very old, traditional, and perhaps out of touch with popular culture history teacher, met Brian May and was overheard to say “I’m really sorry to hear about Freddie Starr”. He had no idea who Freddie Mercury was and confused him with a comedian of the time. This story spread round the school in a “Flash” which rather boosted the street cred of the history teacher.

Anyway, “show must go on” and today is exactly one month until Christmas. It will be quite a truncated week due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday that usually extends into a soporific Friday for markets. Expect your email box to be full of Black Friday offers you simply can’t refuse over the next few days.

The holiday shortened week still see some interesting US data with consumer confidence (tomorrow), preliminary Q3 real GDP, October durable goods orders, October personal income/spending, the November Chicago PMI and the Fed’s Beige Book (Wednesday). Ahead of the December FOMC blackout period at the end of the week, Fed Chair Powell speaks this evening in Rhode Island and centrist Governor Brainard speaks tomorrow in New York to discuss the Fed’s policy framework review.

Powell’s recent Congressional testimonies didn’t reveal anything new so it’s unlikely we’ll learn much from Powell tonight but we’ll tune in nonetheless. Our economists think there is a chance that tomorrow Brainard discusses more about possible future yield curve control as an addition to the Fed’s policy toolkit. This is something she is known to have support for

For consumer confidence tomorrow, the reading has fallen for the last 3 consecutive months, but the consensus is looking for a slight uptick to 126.8 in November. For Wednesday our economists don’t expect any material revisions to the second print on Q3 real GDP (+1.9% preliminary vs. 1.9% advance), but the October durable goods data will provide an initial read on current-quarter capex spending if we can adjust for any impact from the GM strikes. A bounce back from these strikes should help the November Chicago PMI rebound (47 expected vs 43.2 last month) but there could be an additional boost from the recent stabilisation and slight bounce in the global manufacturing data over the last couple of months. See our economists recent piece (” Global growth: Green shoots or false dawn? ” ) for more on this.

How far this small recovery in manufacturing goes may rest on the “phase one” trade deal so all eyes on new information on that topic this week. Over the weekend China has issued new guidelines saying that it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in trade talks with the US. On Friday President Trump had said in an interview with Fox News that “This can’t be like an even deal, because we’re starting off on the floor and you’re already at the ceiling. So we have to have a much better deal,” before adding, we are “very close” to a trade pact.

Asian Markets are trading higher this morning with the Nikkei (+0.64%), Hang Seng (+1.61%), Shanghai Comp (+0.33%), and Kospi (+0.98%) all up on the China IP story. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.23%. As we go to print, the Chinese daily The Global Times has reported that the US and China are “very close” to a Phase 1 deal citing experts close to the Chinese government.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, Hong Kong held local district elections where the results indicated a big victory to pro-democracy candidates as they are indicated to win 86% seats of the 444 seats counted as of 9 am local time (per official results), with eight seats still up for grabs. In the last election in 2015, they had won about a quarter of all seats. So a remarkable jump. Also, the voter turnout was at a record high of 71%, roughly double the number in the previous election. Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam said of the results that “The government respects the results of this election,” while adding, “I am aware there’s lots of analysis about the results among the community, which said the results are a reflection of the public’s dissatisfaction towards the current situation and deep-seated problems in society. The government will listen to the public’s feedback with humility and reflect on it.” Elsewhere, Colombian President Ivan Duque said on Saturday that the country will keep joint military-police troops on the streets to maintain calm after the organised nationwide protests degenerated into looting in some areas. Columbia becomes another country after Chile in LatAm to face elevated political risks.

In other news, We also heard from the ECB Chief Economist Philip lane on Saturday where he said that the ECB policies are “in good shape” for the baseline scenario but further rate cuts can’t be ruled out. Mr. Lane added that “If it is necessary to put the rate lower, we will be prepared to do so,” and that, “of course, everyone agrees at some level the negative rate will not be helpful. But our assessment is we are not at that level now.” On inflation, he said “we do not find it acceptable to have inflation around 1.6%. So 1.6% is not close to 2%. That is important.” Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank’s Chief Economist Carlos Lenz said on Sunday that the central bank has additional room to cut its already negative interest rate.

In terms of the weekend polls in the U.K. election the Conservative Party consolidated their lead and edged it higher with an average lead of around 13 percentage points. The Tories ranged from 41-47% support with the Labour Party at 28-32%. Many thought at the start of this campaign that this was one of the most unpredictable elections in history. However for me it was always pretty simple. There are three main established political parties in the U.K. and the electorate is split close to 50:50 on Brexit. As only one is committed to Brexit they were always going to have a numerical advantage. In a constituency/Parliamentary system the less than 1 year old Brexit Party was always very unlikely to get much traction. I suspect the only way the Conservatives won’t win a sizeable majority is if Labour and The LibDems (and/or their voters) form a remain alliance and do it very quickly. If there is a surprise in this campaign it’s that the LibDems hard line remain/cancel Brexit stance has not resonated more with voters. Yesterday the Tories unveiled their manifesto which seemed to be biased towards not making any mistakes rather than offering an exciting new agenda. In 2017, the Labour Party started to climb after the Tories released their manifesto with many blaming an ambitious plan to pay for elderly care which got labeled the “dementia tax”. So all eyes on whether this relatively risk-free manifesto works for them from a safety first point of view.

Back to this week and Europe’s main releases are back ended. Friday sees the Euro Area CPI estimate alongside unemployment. Thursday sees the release of the European Commission’s confidence indicators for November, which as usual will be keenly watched for signs of whether the economy shows some signs of stabilisation. Last month, the economic sentiment indicator fell yet again to 100.8, its lowest level since January 2015. The industrial confidence indicator was at its lowest since July 2013, while the services confidence indicator was at its lowest since June 2015. In the advance consumer confidence reading this week, we did see a slight uptick to -7.2 however (vs. -7.6 previously), so it’ll be interesting to see if this is followed through in the rest of the data.

Turning to last week’s market action now where the highlight was the nuanced details to Friday’s PMIs. In Europe, the manufacturing sector rebounded more strongly than anticipated (46.6 from 45.9 for the euro area), though the services sector lagged (51.5 from 52.2). The trend was especially pronounced in Germany, where the manufacturing PMI rose to 43.8 from 42.1. The data indicated that the divergence between industrial and consumer sectors is narrowing, though from both directions. The PMIs in the US were more uniformly positive, with manufacturing PMI rising +0.9pts to 52.2 and the services reading up +1.0pt 51.6. On net, the results were positive for risk sentiment, with major equity indexes paring their losses on the week. The S&P 500 ended -0.32% (+0.23% on Friday), while the STOXX 600 retreated -0.51 (+0.44% Friday) last week.

The trade-sensitive semiconductors index fell -2.99% (flat on Friday) as confidence fell that the US and China will reach a trade deal this year, leaving the spectre of the planned tariff increase alive. Fixed income rallied amid a flight to safety, with 10-year yields on Treasuries and bunds falling -6.2bps and -2.5bps (-0.3bps and -3.4bps Friday) respectively. Despite the widening rate differential, the dollar gained +0.26% (+0.27% Friday), with the euro down -0.26% (-0.33% Friday). Credit widened on the week, with HY cash indices +16bps and +4.5bps wider in the US and Europe (-2bps and +0.2bps Friday).

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.88 POINTS OR 0.72%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 397.46 POINTS OR 1.50%   /The Nikkei closed UP 179.93 POINTS OR 0.78%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .28%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0351 /Oil DOWN TO 57.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0351 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0325 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Hong Kong

Hong Kong as expected elects pro democracy candidates amid record turnout.  The big protest organizer also

wins his seat

(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Election: Pro-Democracy Candidates Surge Amid Record Turnout; Protest Organizer Wins Seat

Pro-democracy candidates are scoring overwhelming victories amid the city’s first district council elections since anti-government protests erupted earlier this year, according to SCMP.

 

Lines at 7am for Hong Kong district elections (via @mnandita)

According to SCMP, 140 of the first 160 seats declared have gone to pro-democracy candidates. There are a total of 452 seats, of which nearly 69% remain undeclared as of this report.

The wins come amid a record number of Hong Kongers turning out to cast ballots, according to Bloomberg.

More than 2.94 million people, or roughly 71.2% of the financial hub’s electorate, had voted, according to Barnabas Fung, chairman of election affairs committee. The previous highest turnout was 1.47 million in 2015. Residents faced unusually long lines at polling stations across the city as they came out to vote in the election.

The vote unfolded peacefully despite concerns it could be delayed or disrupted by violence following unrest in the leadup. More than 6,000 complaints relating to the election were received, Fung said. Logistical issues including the long lines at the polling stations topped the list, he added. Results are expected early Monday. –Bloomberg

“There’s so many people it’s brought tears to my eyes,” said Ng Siu-hong, who represents the city’s Central and Western District. “It’s good for me but more importantly good for democracy.”

Also scoring pro-democracy victories were Civil Human Rights Front organizer Jimmy Sham, who was attacked with hammers and hospitalized last month while eating lunch at a local restaurant. Also elected was Kelvin Lam who is supported by activist Joshua Wong.

 

Jimmy Sham

“The high turnout rate did benefit the pro-democracy camp,” said Lam, adding “The result is like a referendum of the current administration, like a confidence vote.”

Some candidates came under attack and the city was paralyzed by days of chaos in the weeks leading up to the election, with schools suspended, protesters disrupting commutes and riot police laying siege to a university. Police dispatched at least two officers clad in riot gear to each polling booth Sunday.

“Recent social events make people want to voice their opinions,” said a 22-year-old voter who gave his name as Mr. Yip, as he stood in a line to vote that stretched some 500 meters down central Caine Road under the watchful eye of four riot police. “The people’s voices won’t necessarily be reflected in the governments’ real life decisions and our power is quite weak, but it is still our right to show our voices.” —Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, Hong Kong is extremely polarized right now amid increasingly violent protests. While most residents support the goals of the movement – including an independent inquiry into policy abuses, some have become divided over tactics employed by more extreme factions.

“It’s kind of a referendum on the government and everything that’s happened over the past five months,” said Chi-Jia Tschang, a senior director in the Hong Kong office of BowerGroupAsia, which advises companies on business and political risk in the region (via BBG), “People still want an opportunity to work within the system to have their voices heard. That’s why there’s so much focus on this.”

That said, Sunday’s election of what are ultimately lower-ranking bureaucrats be more of a harbinger for what’s to come than anything else, given that it’s the first democratic exercise since protests broke out in June.

The district council is the lowest rung of government in the city and councilors have few real powers, mostly advising the chief executive on matters like fixing up parks and organizing community activities. Its elections have typically been plagued by low voter turnout and aren’t hugely competitive, compared with those for the Hong Kong’s more powerful Legislative Council.

“I came out to vote because of the current situation in society now,” said student Ken Lam, a first-time voter. “The government is ignoring voices in the public. Policy-making lacks transparency in every aspect.”

Meanwhile, the CCP’s resident Twitter mouthpiece is not happy:

end
China
Chinese officials state that phase two is nowhere on the horizon
(zerohedge)

No “Phase Two” Trade Deal On Horizon Say US, Chinese Officials

While global stock markets surge and swoon with every headline indicating fresh optimism (or pessimism) for a US China trade deal, the same trade deal that has been around the corner ever since the summer of 2018, things aren’t looking too healthy for whatever lies beyond the allegedly easy “Phase 1” deal, that was announced as clinched with much fanfare by Trump on October 11.

The ambitious “phase two” trade deal between the US and China is looking less and less likely as the two countries find it near impossible to reach an agreement on even the preliminary “phase one” agreement, according to U.S. and Beijing officials, lawmakers and trade experts told Reuters.

Recall back in October, when stock markets roared higher after President Trump said during a press conference with Chinese vice premier Liu He that he expected to quickly dive into a second phase of talks once “phase one” had been completed. The second phase would focus on a key U.S. complaint that China effectively steals U.S. intellectual property by forcing U.S. companies to transfer their technology to Chinese rivals, the US president said then.

And yet, despite what appeared to be a modest concession by Beijing which Bloomberg earlier reported had issued various guidelines for IP theft, arguably in preparation for “Phase 2”, Reuters notes that the November 2020 U.S. presidential election, “the difficulties in getting the first-stage done, combined with the White House’s reluctance to work with other countries to pressure Beijing are dimming hopes for anything more ambitious in the near future.”

 

In fact, with the December venue for the Phase 1 deal announcement scrapped and still not replaced with a new one, it remains unclear if – or when – any deal will be formalized.

The news follows a previous Reuters report last Wednesday, according to which the signing of the Phase 1 deal could slide into 2020 as the two countries have hit an impasse over Beijing’s demand for more extensive tariff rollbacks. Officials in Beijing say they don’t anticipate sitting down to discuss a phase two deal before the U.S. election, in part because they want to wait to see if Trump wins a second term.

“It’s Trump who wants to sign these deals, not us. We can wait,” one Chinese official told Reuters, refuting a daily refrain from Trump who in turn has claimed that it is China that is looking to sign a deal quickly.

At the end of the day, with neither side willing to compromise and show weakness, a deal may never actually happen.

To be sure, as we drag closer to the Nov 2020 elections, China’s leverage seems to grow, if for no other reason than a collapse in trade talks could spark a major market selloff and torpedo both the economy and Trump’s approval rating.

As such, Trump’s main priority at the moment is to secure a big phase one announcement, locking in big-ticket Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods that he can tout as an important win during his re-election campaign, according to a Trump administration official.  After that, and as the news cycle entered the home stretch of the elections, China would recede on Trump’s policy agenda as he turns to domestic issues, the Reuters soruce said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

He will probably leave other major contentious issues to senior aides, who are likely to continue pushing Beijing over the theft of U.S. intellectual property, its militarization of the South China Sea and its human rights record, the official said.

“As soon as we finish phase one we’re going to start negotiating phase two,” a second administration official said. “As far as timing around when a phase two deal could be completed, that’s not something I can speculate on.”

The Trump White House initially laid out ambitious plans to restructure the United States’ relationship with China, including addressing what a 2018 United States Trade Representative investigation concluded were Beijing’s “unfair, unreasonable, and market-distorting practices.” Alas, in the past year, this ambitious goal shriveled to what amounted to China buying the same amount of agricultural products from the US… as it did in 2017.

Ironically, in a massively divided Congress, there is broad bipartisan support for Trump’s drive to hold China accountable for years of economic espionage, cyber attacks, forced technology transfer and dumping of low-priced goods made with hefty government subsidies. However, most of these critical concerns will not be addressed in the phase one agreement, which focuses on China agricultural product buys, tariff roll backs, and includes some intellectual property pledges.

“That’s the easy stuff,” said Costa. The harder issues are “industrial espionage, copyrights, complying with those issues, privacy and security issues.”

It’s those issues that will certainly not be resolved before the 2020 election… if ever.

Further complicating the issue, Trump’s economic advisers are split: some – such as Larry Kudlow – are pushing Trump to agree to a quick phase one deal to appease markets and business executives, others – such as Peter Navarro – want him to push for a more comprehensive agreement.

At the same time, Beijing officials are balking at pursuing larger structural changes to managing China’s economy, anxious not to appear to be kowtowing to U.S. interests.

That said, both China and the United States have a clear interest in getting a phase one deal completed relatively soon to soothe markets and assuage domestic policy concerns, said Matthew Goodman, a former U.S. government official and trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Which is why there is a very good chance that the two sides will hammer out some phase one deal, even if just a placeholder for a photo opportunity, but a broader deal will not be reached before the election, or perhaps after. One key problem, he said, was the continued lack of a coherent U.S. strategy for dealing with China.

 

“I think phase one probably will happen because both presidents want it,” Goodman said at a Congressional briefing last week. But he said China was less willing now to make structural changes that might have been possible in the spring. “They’re not going to do those things,” he said.

Josh Kallmer, a former official with the U.S. Trade Representative’s office and now executive vice president of the Information Technology Industry Council, told Reuters that it was “technically possible, but hard to imagine” that the United States and Beijing could negotiate a phase two deal in the next year.

One reason for the logistical complexity is that the United States needs better coordination with its allies to pressure China to make urgently needed structural changes, including ending the forced transfer of technology and better intellectual property protections, trade experts and former officials say.

And as Trump’s trade feud with Beijing escalated, Europe and other U.S. allies have been reluctant to join Washington’s pressure campaign on Beijing, partly due to frustration with the administration’s focus on unilateral action but mostly due to their reliance on Chinese investment.

“We need an international coalition to successfully attack phase two,” said Kellie Meiman Hock, managing partner at McLarty Associates, a trade consulting group in Washington.

Such a coalition is not coming, which is also why anyone hoping for more than a token “deal” will be disappointed. On the other hand, with markets pricing in a successful deal every single day since the summer of 2018, dangling the carrot that a Phase 1 deal is “just around the corner” may be precisely what the doctor ordered to have the S&P trade around 3,400 or higher just before the presidential election. And that, far more than getting an actual trade deal with China, is what Trump has been after all along.

 

end

Very scary!!  China’s important momentum indicator signals more downside as the world’s global economy falters

(zerohedge)

Economic Recovery Narrative Doomed: Fathom’s China Momentum Indicator Signals More Downside Ahead

In the last 30 days, we’ve noted that China’s credit growth rapidly decelerated to the weakest pace since at least 2017 as a continued collapse in shadow banking, weak corporate demand for credit and seasonal effects all signaled that a massive rebound in China’s economy, nevertheless the global economy, in early 2020 is questionable.

Though investors around the world have bought stocks in preparation for a massive 2016-style rebound in the global economy. We’ve discussed that because of China’s credit impulse has rolled over, the probabilities of a massive rebound in China’s economy or even the rest of the world remains low — though it’s possible the global economy could stabilize, it’s just the idea that a huge rebound is unlikely.

Fathom Consulting’s China Momentum Indicator 2.0 (CMI 2.0) provides a more in-depth view of China’s economic activity than official Chinese GDP statistics.

CMI 2.0 is based on ten alternative indicators for economic activity; some of those indicators include railway freight, electricity consumption, and the issuance of bank loans.

Fathom has stated that in CMI 2.0, the calculation of the index avoids measuring construction activity, and instead focuses on shadow measures of economic activity. The consulting group says this allows the index to be “less prone to manipulation than the headline GDP figures.”

“In 2014, when China’s traditional growth model was running out of steam and vulnerabilities were rising, authorities toyed with credit tightening and an enforced rebalancing. But at the end of 2015, when growth slowed too sharply, they quickly threw in the towel, resorting to the old growth model of credit-fuelled growth. With growth once again slowing, and past precedent suggesting credit has neared its limit, China finds itself at a crossroad,” Fathom recently said.

China is undoubtedly at “crossroads,” as Fathom suggests, because of its inability to stoke economic growth via credit, this means China isn’t going to bail out the world again like it did in 2008 and 2015/16.

Global stocks are expecting China CMI 2.0 to soar in the coming months, but if that doesn’t happen, global stocks are likely to see a significant correction in the months ahead.

And with China’s economic activity decelerating, China’s CSI 300 Index could retest around the 3,000 level.

 

Commodities remain depressed because China’s economic activity continues to decelerate.

Without China – which has created 60% of all new global debt over the past decade – there can be no global recovery.

In other words, enjoy the current growth delusion while it lasts… some time into Q2 2020 when the Fed’s NOT QE will fade to nothing.

end
This comes from the Chinese media: do not be surprised to see that the next country to cut rates to zero is China itself.
(zerohedge)

Chinese Media Stunner: China Will Be The Next Country To Cut Rates To Zero

One week ago, we showed in one chart why the global economic recovery that so many expect is just a few months away, won’t happen: as the chart below shows, China’s credit intensity since 1994 has exploded. This means that before the Global Financial Crisis, China needed on average one unit of credit to create one unit of GDP. Since 2008, 2½ units of credit are required to create one unit of GDP. In other words, that China needs much more credit than 10 years ago to have the exact same amount of GDP. Injecting more credit in the economy is not the miracle solution it used to be, and the disadvantages of credit push tend to surpass the advantages.

This explosion in China’s credit intensity in the past decade has directly fueled China’s debt engine, the same debt engine that single-handedly pulled the world out of a global depression in 2008/2009. Alas, this will not happen again: China’s public and household debts are at their highest historical levels, respectively at 51% of GDP and 53% of GDP, and the private sector debt service ratio is becoming a burden for many companies, reaching on average 19.7% This records an increase from 13% before the crisis. Overall, China’s debt to GDP is fast approaching an unprecedented 320%!

Which brings us to Saxo’s dour conclusion for all those who believe that the global economy is about to enjoy another period of sustainable growth (and has confused the Fed’s QE for economic resilience and fundamentals):

Contrary to previous periods of slowdown, notably in 2008-2010, 2012-2014 and in 2016, China is unlikely to save the global economy once again.

So what does it all mean? Well, even as domestic demands for liquidity are growing, foreign capital keeps flowing in and the real economy continues to slow down, which all make the country seemingly approaching a zero rates monetary condition.

While those words succinctly summarize what we said last week, they originate in an English language op-ed published today in China’s nationalist tabloid, Global Times, which for once, is surprisingly accurate, and while mostly avoiding the propaganda that Chinese media is so well known for, explains well why China may indeed be the next country to see zero rates (as a reminder, Chinese real rates are already negative due to soaring pork prices).

And while we doubt that the PBOC will be able to cut enough to bring about ZIRP, or NIRP, any time soon especially due to the ongoing hyperinflation in pork prices, if and when those do stabilize the Chinese central bank may well follow in the footsteps of every other developed central bank. In doing so, it will only infuriate Trump who has been kicking and screaming at Jerome Powell, demanding that the Fed do just that.

What we find most remarkable about the op-ed is how simply, matter-of-factly and correctly, the author explains away why zero rates are coming:

Mounting debts and the financing problems in the real economy will promote China to a zero rate condition

Structurally, China’s non-financial corporate debt ratio is too high, and interest rates are too high. Considering that the repayment burden of existing debt has squeezed out the effective demand for new credit, and China is likely to become the next zero interest rate country

Amusingly, the anonymous op-ed writer has managed to state in two sentences what takes financial pundits hours, days and weeks to explain on CNBC:

Another phenomenon comes with low rates monetary condition is that prices go up with risk asset. The US stock prices have climbed to a new high.

That said, what we found most surprising about the Global Times oped is its conclusion: instead of some jingoist bullshit about how China’s negative rates would be the greatest, and most negative in the entire world, the publication takes a very measured tone, and warns that such a monetary stance may very well spell doom for China, to wit:

 

Zero or negative rates monetary conditions don’t mean that debt issues and the asset bubble problem will be resolved automatically, but the opposite. Growing bubbles in the global financial market in the long run will be a reminder of financial risks.

In a slowing global economy, zero or even negative interest monetary conditions are a new trend that gives new risks and challenges to China and the international financial market. Awareness and responsiveness need to be revamped.

Of course, by the time China is approaching ZIRP, the trade war between the US and China will be at such a heated, if not outright “kinetic” level, that few will notice or care what Beijing’s monetary policy is.

We strongly urge all US policymakers to read the following Global Times article, which is nothing short of a trial balloon warning what China is contemplating next in a desperate move to stimulate its economy, no matter the cost.

China needs to prepare for zero interest rates

The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) continuous interest rates cuts have triggered a race of interest rates cuts among central banks around the world, increasing excessive global liquidity even further. In this case, more countries are faced with monetary conditions of zero or negative rates. Recently, former US Fed chairman Alan Greenspan noted that “negative rates” are spreading around the world. Some financial institutions even believe the world will enter a low rates condition that hasn’t occurred in 1,000 years.

Under the condition of low or zero rates, the world’s debts level keeps rising, and the bond yields continue dropping. Another phenomenon comes with low rates monetary condition is that prices go up with risk asset. The US stock prices have climbed to a new high.

For China, the demands for liquidity are growing, foreign capital keeps flowing in and the real economy continues to slow down, which all make the country seemingly approaching a zero rates monetary condition. It asks policymakers and market players to be prepared. Mounting debts and the financing problems in the real economy will promote China to a zero rate condition. In the first half of 2019, China’s overall debts accounted for 306 percent of the GDP, up 2 percentage points from the 304 percent in the first quarter, according to a report from the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The number was just around 200 percent in 2009 and 130 percent in 1999.

According to data from the National Institution for Finance and Development, China’s enterprise sector’s debts account for 155.7 percent of the nominal GDP, up 2.2 percentage points from the end of last year. It’s far beyond the government sector’s leverage ratio of 38.5 percent and the resident sector’s leverage ratio of 55.3 percent. In the enterprise sector, private companies embattled with financing problems account for 30 percent.

Structurally, China’s non-financial corporate debt ratio is too high, and interest rates are too high. Considering that the repayment burden of existing debt has squeezed out the effective demand for new credit, and China is likely to become the next zero interest rate country, according to Zhu Haibin, Chief China Economist at J.P. Morgan.

The low rates or zero rates condition will in turn reduce the effect of current monetary policy tools. In the overall picture of global interest cuts, the low inflation level causes monetary policy to face challenges. In China, the problem is severe. Currently, China is facing the superposition structural consumption of inflation and production deflation, which is squeezing the space for monetary policy adjustments. Both targeted and “flood-like” stimulus can’t overturn the economic slowdown. New monetary tools and new aims are urgently needed in the zero rates monetary condition.

In the real economy, the zero rates monetary condition will highlight structural problems. The drop of interest rates doesn’t necessarily lead to investment increases. The stratification in liquidity and credit will remain under overproduction conditions and bring new problems to small and medium-sized enterprises. The enterprise sector needs to more urgently prepare for upgrades and maintain competitiveness. The zero rates monetary condition also asks for promotion in supply side reforms, and to resolve problems in the monetary transmission mechanism.

In the finance sector and capital market, the zero rates monetary condition is also challenging for the banking industry and shadow banking. On one hand, dropping interests will narrow the profit space for banks, pressing their performance. On the other hand, enterprises which take loans as main financing means still face structural credit risks that banks can’t identify. It asks banks to build up management and capital capacity to deal with tougher competition. Zero rates will make more investors turn to direct financing, which causes new challenges in evaluation, pricing, investment modeling and investment portfolio balance. It also requires strengthening investment market building, and providing a level playing field.

Zero or negative rates monetary conditions don’t mean that debt issues and the asset bubble problem will be resolved automatically, but the opposite. Growing bubbles in the global financial market in the long run will be a reminder of financial risks.

In a slowing global economy, zero or even negative interest monetary conditions are a new trend that gives new risks and challenges to China and the international financial market. Awareness and responsiveness need to be revamped.

The article was compiled based on a report by Beijing-based private strategic think tank Anbound. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Uk// Fed,/Hong Kong

Michael E//Hong very of Rabobank discusses important events of today including the huge lead in the UK upcoming election

Michael Every/Rabobank)

Rabobank: “Fed’s Kashkari Has Just Come Out With A Jaw-Dropping Policy Shift”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

X marks the spot where it all goes wrong

 

Welcome to Monday – and once again politics is the immediate highlight. Hong Kong’s Sunday district elections–municipalities involved with bus stops, children’s playgrounds, etc.–saw very high turnout, with queues of several hours to vote in a process usually embraced as lethargically as in the UK or US. It delivered a landslide victory for pro-democracy over pro-Beijing candidates, even in the ritziest districtsDespite pointed criticisms of the protests in some media, the majority of Hong Kongers still appear to back them. The editor of the Global Times is already claiming the UK and US interfered in the election via a flurry of bad news stories. What that result means happens next beyond bus stops is less clear – but an easy and quick resolution to the current crisis is not on the cards.

Not so resolutely behind Hong Kong is US President Trump, who was widely misquoted on Friday as saying he might veto the pro-Hong Kong legislation passed with veto-proof majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Having suffered through the entirety of his Fox News phone in session, Trump did not say that. He stated he stands with Hong Kong and freedom – but also with his friend Xi Jinping (who is doing an amazing job); and he underlined this new law could be a “complicating factor” for the trade deal – which is true.

Markets might have been falsely cheered by that false potential veto story on Friday and they are unlikely to be enthralled by the strong pro-democracy vote. However, they can be happy with China promising to address intellectual property concerns. That is a positive – but overlooks how this will be achieved, especially given China has consistently denied there is such a problem. One also needs to recall Chinese cybersecurity legislation requires all key data to be stored on servers in China, which is hardly reassuring regarding IP protection. Nonetheless, the offer might be enough to provide the prima facie reason for the postponement of the 15 December US tariffs, which neither side apparently want to be imposed. Yet markets can still be disappointed at Reuters reporting a “phase two” trade deal is not on the horizon at all (as we have been repeatedly saying all along).

Indeed, there is more China / election news today. The Guardian has released “The China Cables”, similar enough to the New York Times leaks from last week on Xinjiang that they could be in breach of intellectual property laws. While financial-media tumbleweeds after the NYT report, and the lack of impact of the smoking-gun Panama Papers a few years ago, suggest this might not be an obstacle to doing more trade with China, the risk is that at some point this does all reach a tipping point with the public.

Moreover, an alleged Chinese spy (Beijing says “fraudster”) has defected to Australia and requested asylum. He claims to reveal global Chinese influence operations, and last night Australian TV alleged Beijing tried to plant an agent of influence in the Federal parliament: the man involved contacted the Australian spy agency ASIO – and then died in a motel. Of course, in Australia’s case there is no likelihood that the political response will be to stop selling to China; but one cannot guarantee that granting asylum to the self-declared spy will not prompt China to threaten to stop buying.

Meanwhile, in the UK the Lib Dems are haemorrhaging. Indeed, while Labour–which casually threw in an uncosted GBP53bn pension promise over the weekend on top of the hundreds of billions in other spending commitments–is up, the Tories are doing even better: the latest poll puts them 19 points clear and on course for a majority of 40-60 seats. That is despite their manifesto launch yesterday offering less than a tenth of the fiscal stimulus that Labour’s is. How very British to prefer a promise to fill in potholes and free hospital parking over a revolution(?) Likewise, stories of China and Russia have gained no election traction. On potential Russian meddling in UK politics, the report on which will come after the UK election, Putin just gave an interview to CNN in which he again denied any involvement – and blamed the Jews (or the Ukrainians), an attitude critics would allege plays well with some in the Labour party. Indeed, it appears to be Corbyn himself, not Labour’s leftist policies, that are particularly unpopular.

In the US, the mess over Russia-gate (“Russia intervened in the US elections!”) still lingers on, as does Ukraine-gate (“Ukraine didn’t intervene in the US elections!”). Reports suggest US voters, and key independents in particular, are drifting away from supporting impeachment,…so it’s back to the actual 2020 election itself(?) On which note, he’s running! Mike Bloomberg has Bloomberg-ily decided to Bloomberg (it is a verb too, folks) himself into the presidential election and is now officially a Democratic Party nominee candidate too. Oddly for the ‘party of the workers’, two of its 18 candidates for president are now billionaires. The polling for both is so far negligible (Bloomberg on 2.1%, Steyer on 1.3% VS. Biden on 29.8%) yet clearly the Democrats are deeply divided over their anti-Trump strategy: centre or left? At least there will be an actual billionaire, or two, on stage to try to rebut the allegations being made against them by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders; and perhaps it will help put pay to racist conspiracy theories to see there is nothing more authentically Jewish than argumentative septuagenarians belonging to the same club and yet passionately *disagreeing* on almost everything.

 

Meanwhile, as Trump keeps on Trumping, and the Democrats form a circular firing squad try to agree on a viable candidate, the Fed is also seeing its own politicking. Kashkari has just come out with a frankly jaw-dropping policy shift arguing that “monetary policy can play the kind of redistributing role once thought to be the preserve of elected officials.” Of course it can, and has: but that redistribution has been from the poor and middle-class to the rich, not the other way round! What we clearly see again is unelected central banks, having failed at their mandates, to pivot to politics to try to stay relevant. Will a Green New Deal be their new goal? Keeping CO2 in check along with CPI? Or will it be fighting inequality? If so, I seriously struggle to think how! On this as on many other fronts above, X marks the spot where it all starts to go wrong.

So for markets, what can we say? Well, for GBP there is reason for short-term optimism. And the IP story might see some similar knee-jerk responses on US-China trade re: CNH and other EM FX if we ignore Reuters – although with CNY fixing set at 7.04 today, the drift down is clear again. And is Bloomberg news enough to cheer Bloomberg news? Overall, the volume and intensity of bad news sweeping in on the China front, and the looming introduction of the US Hong Kong law within days, should still mean we see the recent trend of lower bond yields continue

end

“They Have Stolen From All Saxons!” – Thieves Steal 100s Of Priceless Jewels From Dresden Museum

For all you Nicolas Cage fans who have been waiting patiently for “National Treasure 3”, an almost unbelievably brazen heist at one of Europe’s oldest museums might help scratch that itch.

A mysterious crew of thieves pulled off one of the most audacious heists in recent memory when they absconded with as many as 100 pieces of 18th-century jewelry from the Saxon royal collection, the FT reports.

Authorities on the collection say the value of the stolen jewels is “incalculable,” according to the FT.

Dirk Syndram, the director of the Green Vault collection, refused to give an estimate of how much the stolen items were worth but said they were of “incalculable cultural value.”

According to the Dresden police, the thieves cut away a lattice of iron bars and smashed through a window before entering the jewellery room, one of a suite of opulent Baroque apartments that house the most precious pieces of the royal collection.

They then broke open one of the display cabinets, and took two “jewel garnitures” –  sets of 37 diamonds each cut and crafted into buttons, brooches and other matching ornaments. A smaller set of 20 pieces fashioned out of diamonds and pearls was also stolen.

The audacious heist was carried out in the early hours of Monday. The suspects managed to go undetected until around 5 am on Monday, when the museum’s security team spotted two of the thieves entering the vault on their camera feed. A police car was dispatched to the scene and arrived within minutes, but somehow, the suspects had already departed with the jewels.

The head of the investigative department that will be responsible for bringing the thieves to justice told reporters that the suspects had entered the vault shortly after a fire destroyed a nearby electricity installation, cutting power to the area.

Dresden’s Green Vault is home to one of the most famous collections of royal jewels in Europe, with more than 3,000 pieces assembled during the reign of August the Strong, who ruled the region during the early 18th century. Artworks held in the room are mostly Baroque in style and made of gold, silver, ivory and amber.

However, the thieves apparently weren’t much interested in art: They exclusively targeted the jewellry room

Local politicians denounced the heist on social media. Michael Krethe, Prime Minister of Saxony, said all Saxons had been robbed in an emotional tweet sent after the heist.

Michael Kretschmer

@MPKretschmer

Nicht nur die Staatlichen Kunstsammlungen wurden bestohlen, sondern wir Sachsen! Man kann die Geschichte von nicht verstehen, ohne das . Die Werte, die hier zu finden sind, wurden von den Menschen in unserem Freistaat über viele Jahrhunderte hart erarbeitet

As reporters scrambled for information and answers, Roland Woeller, a local politician and member of Angela Merkel’s CDU, told the press that a group of criminals had gained access to the Green vault and stolen the artifacts, which carry an “immeasurable” value, according to CNN.

 

“This is an attack on the cultural identity of all Saxons and the state of Saxony,” Woeller added. State Police also confirmed the break-in.

For those who are unfamiliar with the region, Dresden is the capital of the East German state of Saxony. It was made famous by writer Kurt Vonnegut, who set most of his groundbreaking novel, “Slaughterhouse Five”, during the firebombing of Dresden.

This is the second high-profile heist at a German landmark or museum in less than three years: Back in March 2017, a group of thieves stole a 100kg gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum. 

They were never apprehended, and the coin has never been recovered, leading many to suspect that it was melted down and sold by the thieves.

Here’s a thought that we imagine police will consider: Could the same crew be responsible for both attacks?

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran

Iran holds major air war games as additional USA forces enter the Gulf

(zerohedge)

Iran Holds Major Air War Games As Additional US Forces Arrive In Gulf

Iran is in the midst of what’s been described in state media as a massive joint air defense exercise encompassing an area of area of 416,000 square kilometers across central Iran, which is roughly the size of California, designed also the simulate the expanse of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz areas.

Newsweek noted late this week the timing comes as again tensions in the gulf are soaring, and after Iran has been hit with the most severe anti-government protests in years over a 300% gas hike which started a week ago. The games simulate “a potential aerial invasion amid regional unrest and a powerful U.S. Navy warship sailed near its shores,” according to the report.

 

Iran was reported this week to have tested its new domestic built missile system, via Iran’s Mehr News Agency.

The war games, named the 98-Guardians of Velayat Sky joint exercises, were described by Iranian Army Air Defense Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard as simulating response to a crisis in the oil choke point passageways of the Persian Gulf, and “will practice the toughest and most realistic combat conditions,” according to state media.

Gen. Sabahifard warned hostile powers in the following message: “I advise enemies not to put us to the test, because conducting such a test and entering the sky of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as shown in the past, will lead to no achievements for them, except humiliation.” He further promised that “world-class” and “cutting-edge” systems would be on display and battle-tested.

“If the enemy intends to invade, attack or even infringe on our country’s skyline, which is one of our red lines, we can deal with it,” Sabahifard added. “All of the equipment and systems that we use for discovering, detection and engagement (with hostile targets) over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz are available in the (drill) theater,” he said.

 

Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard, via Pars Today 

Meanwhile, at the start of the week President Trump notified Congress that he would be sending the last of about 3,000 troops which will be stationed in Saudi Arabia to “deter” the ‘Iran threat’. “These personnel will remain deployed as long as their presence is required to fulfill the missions described above,” the president said in a letter to the House of Representatives.

Forces were deployed “to assure our partners, deter further Iranian provocative behavior, and bolster regional defensive capabilities,” the letter stated,

Last month the Pentagon announced the extra troop deployments as well as military hardware, including Patriot missiles to the kingdom, after the prior September drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities.

end

IRAN

Gatestone’s Rafizadeh articulates clearly that the Mullahs are going bankrupt.  Iran is only selling about 200,000 barrels per day.  The Iranian budget is around 41 billion USA of which oil is 21 billion dollars.  They are running a huge deficit of over 20 billion dollars and thus they cannot support Hezbollah and Hamas plus other intrusions in Syria etc.

(courtesy Gatestone)

Thanks To Trump, The Mullahs Are Going Bankrupt

Authored by Majid Rafizadeh via The Gatestone Institute,

The critics of President Trump’s Iran policy have been proven wrong: the US sanctions are imposing significant pressure on the ruling mullahs of Iran and the ability to fund their terror groups.

Before the US Department of Treasury leveled secondary sanctions against Iran’s oil and gas sectors, Tehran was exporting over two million barrel a day of oil. Currently, Tehran’s oil export has gone down to less than 200,000 barrel a day, which represents a decline of roughly 90% in Iran’s oil exports.

 

Iran has the second-largest natural gas reserves and the fourth-largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, and the sale of these resources account for more than 80 percent of its export revenues. The Islamic Republic therefore historically depends heavily on oil revenues to fund its military adventurism in the region and sponsor militias and terror groups. Iran’s presented budget in 2019 was nearly $41 billion, while the regime was expecting to generate approximately $21 billion of it from oil revenues. This means that approximately half of Iran’s government revenue comes from exporting oil to other nations.

Even though Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, boasts about the country’s self-sufficient economy, several of Iran’s leaders recently admitted the dire economic situation that the government is facing. Speaking in the city of Kerman on November 12, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani acknowledged for the first time that “Iran is experiencing one of its hardest years since the 1979 Islamic revolution” and that “the country’s situation is not normal.”

Rouhani also complained:

“Although we have some other incomes, the only revenue that can keep the country going is the oil money. We have never had so many problems in selling oil. We never had so many problems in keeping our oil tanker fleet sailing…. How can we run the affairs of the country when we have problems with selling our oil?”

Thanks to the US policy of “maximum pressure,” the Islamic Republic’s overall economy has taken a major beating as well. Lately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has again adjusted its forecast for Iran’s economy and pointed out that Iran’s economy is expected to shrink by 9.5% rather than 6% by the end of 2019.

One of the reasons behind IMF’s gloomy picture of Iran’s economy is linked to the Trump administration’s decision not to extend its waiver for Iran’s eight biggest oil buyers; China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea. Instead of showing economic growth in 2019, Iran’s economy would be 90% of its size by the end of 2019 in comparison to two years ago, based on a recent report from the World Bank.

Iran’s national currency, the rial, also continues to lose value: it dropped to historic lows. One US dollar, which equaled approximately 35,000 rials in November 2017, now buys you nearly 110,000 rials.

 

In addition, the Islamic Republic appears to be scrambling to compensate for the loss of revenues it is encountering. A few days ago, for example, Iran’s leaders tripled the price of gasoline. It appears a sign of desperation to generate revenues in order to fund their military adventurism in the region and support their proxies and terror groups.

This increase immediately led people to rise up against the government. In the last few days, several Iranian cities have become the scenes of widespread protests and demonstrations. The protests first erupted in Ahvaz and then spread to many other cities in the Khuzestan province as well as in the capital Tehran, and Kermanshah, Isfahan, Tabriz, Karadj, Shiraz, Yazd, Boushehr, Sari, Khorramshahr, Andimeshk, Dezful, Behbahan and Mahshahr.

Tehran’s diminishing resources have also caused Iranian leaders to cut funds to the Palestinian terror group Hamas and the Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah. Hamas was forced to introduce “austerity plans” while Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, has also called on his group’s fundraising arm “to provide the opportunity for jihad with money and also to help with this ongoing battle.”

To the likely dismay of Washington’s critics, President Trump’s Iran policy has been heading in the right direction. By escalating economic sanctions, the ruling mullahs and their proxies are going bankrupt. Other nations now need to join the US by also adopting a “maximum pressure” policy — even if they would rather continue to do business with Iran and undermine President Trump’s administration — to them, a “twofer”. If Iran succeeds in developing its nuclear weapons breakout capability, in the end it will be used to blackmail precisely them.

end
LEBANON
Dollars have totally disappeared from Lebanon as this once proud jewel of the Middle East approaches bankruptcy.
Protests continue on a daily basis as many cannot get their money out. Lebanon has an extremely high amount off official gold at 289 tonnes. to which the west would surely want to get its hands on
(zerohedge)

ATMs Spitting Back Bank Cards In Lebanon As “Dollars Have Virtually Disappeared”

Though banks reopened this week in Lebanon, with the country’s financial institutions remaining front and center in massive anti-government protests amid accusations of corruption and wild mismanagement, withdrawal limits have now been made official by the country’s Banks Association — previously unofficially enforced.

The formal controls now include limiting withdrawals to $1,000 per week, with transfers abroad only ambiguously defined necessary for “urgent matters”.

Yet the collective panic, driven by fears patrons won’t be able to retrieve their deposits from banks, has only compounded, as now The Washington Post reports “Dollars have virtually disappeared.”

 

Vandalized ATM machine in Lebanon’s northern port city of Tripoli this week, via Middle East Online. 
“Over recent weeks, ATMs in Lebanon have been spitting back bank cards, refusing to provide dollars to those who ask for them, though people here have long used the American currency alongside the Lebanese pound,” the WaPo reported.Protest-racked Lebanon over the past month has seen its banks opened for only half that time. Given that most of the country’s debt is held by local banks, and with the scene of police literally standing at teller windows having to enforce controls and restrain patrons from removing all of their own money, the vicious cycle continues hurtling the $86 billion indebted country toward economic collapse.First, the deteriorating security situation since Oct. 17 forced their prior closure for two weeks, with the country’s association of banks then fearing a run on deposits, and after a brief opening staff went on strike, citing personal safety at the hands of angry citizens demanding their cash from the “thieving” banks (literally in some cases involving clients with guns).

The crisis continues to be felt across multiple sectors and in citizens’ daily lives, as the Post report continues:

“Panicked tenants have begun asking to pay their rent in pounds, but landlords are refusing to accept them as the local currency hemorrhages value.”

And further: “Some restaurants and bars have stopped taking credit cards, instead requiring cash to pay vendors. Other eateries have limited their menus, unable to pay for imported goods in dollars.”

At the heart of the banking crisis, which predates the latest record million-strong protests which were sparked in mid-October by a proposed tax on WhatsApp and other popular Voice over IP services, remains extreme lack of confidence in the local currency and corrupt officials which oversee the depleted system. This alongside a years-long severe slowdown in capital inflows, vital for financing the state deficit and pay for imports, fueling an ongoing liquidity crisis.

 

Lebanon Central Bank during anti-government protests in Beirut, via Reuters.

And per WaPo, the Lebanese lira which is officially supposed to be pegged to the dollar, continues to weaken at an alarming rate: “The black market exchange rate has now soared to 1,900 pounds to the dollar, 26 percent higher than the official rate.”

Though Lebanon can boast it’s never defaulted on its sovereign debt  now standing at about 150% of GDP and with the finance ministry vowing it can pay off a $1.5bn bond maturing this month  it’s never seen a crisis of this magnitude, causing economists to urge Beirut to pursue a debt restructuring plan as the default risk worsens.
END

6.Global Issues

the state of affairs inside Sweden: migration has caused high unemployment as these migrants are not skilled and did not learn the Swedish language.

(Bergman/Gatestone)

Sweden: The Price Of Migration

Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

New figures from the European Union’s statistical bureau, Eurostat, show that unemployment is rising in Sweden. According to Eurostat, unemployment there was 7.4% in August, whereas the EU average for August was 6.2 %. This leaves Sweden, on Eurostat’s unemployment ranking of countries, at number 24 out of 28. According to the daily newspaper Expressen, one of the main reasons for Sweden’s high unemployment happens to be the large number of immigrants that the country has taken in.

As late as February 2019, Sweden’s Minister of Justice and Migration, Morgan Johansson, mocked those who worried that migration would lead to mass unemployment:“Do you remember when the doomsayers were squawking that migration would lead to mass unemployment?,” he tweeted.

“Now: unemployment continues to fall among foreign-born and young people. For domestic-born it is at a record low”.

He cannot mock anyone now. In 2013, Social Democratic leader Stefan Löfven, who has been prime minister since 2014, said he would ensure that by 2020, Sweden would have the lowest unemployment in the EU. That is evidently not about to happen.

The disproportionately large influx of people who do not have the educational or language skills to work in the Swedish economy was never likely to help bring about the lowest unemployment in the EU. As previously reported by Gatestone, the small Swedish city of Filipstad exemplifies a place where the influx of non-Western migrants, some of them illiterate, with little or no education, has meant that the unemployment rate in that group is at 80%: they depend for their livelihoods on the municipality’s social welfare program.

In 2015, during the European migration crisis, nearly 163,000 migrants arrived in Sweden seeking asylum — primarily from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, according to a recent report by the daily newspaper Aftonbladet. Out of those 163,000 migrants, 60,000 received a residence permit. In the group of people over the age of 15, made up of 40,019 people, only 4,574 get their livelihood from employment, according to Aftonbladet’s report. 18,405 people from the cohort live on welfare handed out by municipalities and 9,970 people receive funds for studying.

According to Aftonbladet, eight of the ten municipalities that received the most asylum seekers in 2015 have higher unemployment than the national average, and in all ten municipalities there is a higher proportion of the population living on welfare. Aftonbladet mentions Ljusnarsberg in Örebro County as the municipality that received the highest number of asylum seekers — 230 per 1000 inhabitants. There, the unemployment rate is more than 10% and the number of welfare recipients is 22.9%. In Norberg, which received the second highest number in relation to its size, the unemployment rate is 8.6%.

“The industries have a very limited need for people without experience and education,” said municipal councilor Johanna Odö.

“Even if we had money to hire more people, we would not find these people among those who are outside the labor market in our municipality today”.

Economist and professor Per Lundborg told Aftonbladet:

“Sweden is one of the most high-tech countries in the world, where we have cut simpler jobs. Therefore, the knowledge gap is too large for many of the refugee immigrants who come here”.

In Malmö, where unemployment is 13.7 %, almost double the national average, the municipality is looking at a deficit of 390 million kroner ($40.2 million). “This is something we share with many other municipalities. It is due to the demographic development, where fewer [people] have to provide for more,” the financial director of Malmö municipality, Anna Westerling, recently told the daily newspaper Sydsvenskan.

Every fourth municipality and every third region, according to a report by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKL), had a budget deficit in 2018. At least 110 municipalities expect to run a deficit this year. (There are 290 municipalities and 21 regions in Sweden.)

Many municipalities therefore need to make budget cuts. In Ystad, in the south of Sweden, the municipality, as part of the services of the welfare state, helps the elderly with hot meals and cleaning services. Now, to save money, the municipality will no longer serve hot meals to the elderly and cleaning services will be limited to once every three weeks. The elderly will instead have to get ready-made meals from the supermarket.

 

“It’s about trying to streamline our work processes. But also to inspire and rethink,” said Dan Kjellsson, Social Manager of Ystad municipality, when interviewed for an article in Aftonbladet. The article also quoted the daughter of an elderly person who receives help:

“Imagine that you cannot do very much on your own, which is why [the municipality helps with] cleaning. Imagine the toilet, what it looks like after three weeks? How does it look in the kitchen, hygienically? I think there needs to be cleaning every two weeks” she said.

Motala municipality, according to a report in Aftonbladet, announced that it would lower the heat in buildings managed by the city, including old age homes, to save money. “We will take care of the elderly; they will not be freezing, they can have blankets,” the message went.

The criticism of the proposed savings on care for the elderly in Motala, however, was so massive that the municipality had to back down. “It is good that Motala has changed its mind and listened. We assume that they have learned their lesson and that care for the elderly will be the last thing that is saved on in the future,” said Eva Eriksson, the spokesperson for the organization of pensioners in Sweden, SPF Seniorerna. Motala municipality is also planning to save on hot meals for the elderly by replacing them with ready-made microwavable meals. It remains to be seen whether that idea will also be scrapped.

Meanwhile, in June, the Swedish parliament voted in favor of a law that is likely to increase immigration to Sweden based on family reunification. The Moderate Party and the Sweden Democrats were the only ones to vote against the proposal. “The government is completely relaxed about this. They are closing their eyes to what has happened after 2015,” said Maria Malmer Stenergard, a Moderate Party MP; “there is still a crisis in the municipalities. We say no to this because we need a strict refugee policy.”

END

Saxo bank describes the fact that there has been so much liquidity injected into the global economy that it is impossible to withdraw it.  Due to the huge amount of debt in the globe it will be impossible to raise rates

(zerohedge/Saxo bank)

Saxo Bank: “So Much Liquidity Has Been Injected In The Market, It Is Now Impossible To Withdraw It”

Earlier today we showed why, according to Saxo Bank’s Christopher Dembik, the US will drown in deflation over the next 30 years as the collective forces of demographics, technology, oligopolies and global debt accumulation make higher interest rates virtually impossible.

The Saxo strategist wasn’t finished, however, and then proceeded to lash out at the monetary policy that enable the current dead-end situation, stating that “we are all well-aware that monetary policy is not the right tool to stimulate the economy and the disadvantages of negative rates surpass the advantages, but we are doing more of the same and we are slowly reaching the point where central banks are becoming market makers in some market segments.

What follows then is one of the most succinct explanations why – in a world in which the stock market is the economy – central banks can never again allow stocks to drop: “We – and I mean mostly policymakers – cannot afford the stock market to fall, as it would lead to contagion effect to the real economy.” And the punchline:

 

So much liquidity has been injected in the stock market over the past years, it is now almost impossible to withdraw it.”

And that, in a nutshell, is why the Fed launched QE4 last month when the S&P was at all time highs, and the Fed was cutting rate – the central bank can’t take an even modest risk that stocks will ever again drop, period. Which is why before the current monetary experiment ends in disaster, the Fed will not only unleash negative rates, but it will buy corporate bonds, stocks, and everything else that is not nailed down to preserve the “western way of life.” In the end, it will fail, but not before tearing apart the very fabric of modern society and capital markets as we know them.

(Harvey: we will never reach negative rates with respect to the USA side of thigns)

The full note from Dembik is below, and we urge everyone to read it:

I used to be skeptical about the risk of Japanisation of the economy but, as a matter of fact, we are facing this issue. Like in Japan, ultra-accommodative monetary policy has little positive effect on growth, negative rates mostly cause financial disruption, inflation is stuck to very low levels and structural factors, such as aging, are becoming the most important drivers of long-term growth. And, like in Japan, the cost of pretend and extend is increasing. We are all well-aware that monetary policy is not the right tool to stimulate the economy and the disadvantages of negative rates surpass the advantages, but we are doing more of the same and we are slowly reaching the point where central banks are becoming market makers in some market segments. This is already the case in the euro area sovereign bond market. Based on our calculations, the ECB owns around 70% of France’s public debt and around 80% of Germany’s public debt.

To some extent, I tend to agree with some of my colleagues that consider the stock market is the economy. We – and I mean mostly policymakers – cannot afford the stock market falls, as it would lead to contagion effect to the real economy. So much liquidity has been injected in the stock market over the past years, it is now almost impossible to withdraw it. The only solution is to keep injecting liquidity, which explains why around 60% of central banks are easing globally.

This is the highest level since the GFC. Higher interest rates and QT are virtually impossible in a world of debtLooking only at USD-denominated EM debt, it is reaching 3.7 trillion USD, which represents an increase of 156% since 2008. This debt burden is not manageable if interest rates considerably increasePolicymakers are not ready to accept the social cost resulting from the end of the expansionary monetary policy.

What does it mean for investors? If Japan is an example of what the future may hold for many countries, notably in Europe, it is likely that investors will favor the equity market over the bond market. In the chart below, you can see that equities have become the most attractive investment over the past 30 years in Japan.

 

It is easily explained by the fact that the BoJ’s monetary policy has fueled the stock market, especially export companies that have benefited from lower JPY. This may sound paradoxical but, in coming years, it is highly probable that the stock market will continue to perform quite well, and that PER will keep increasing. It does not mean that financial imbalances do not matter anymore.

For instance, it is worrying that hedge funds continue to be crowded into just the same 5 tech stocks (Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Alibaba and Alphabet)…

… but, in a world of QE infinity and lowflation, there is no other alternative than stocks for investors seeking yields.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1013 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.88 UP 0.276 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2869   UP   0.0047  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO DEC 12/2019//BR. ELECTION

USA/CAN 1.3304 UP .0010 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 20.88 POINTS OR 0.72% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 397.46 POINTS OR 1.50%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,28%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 297.46 POINTS OR 1.50%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.88 POINTS OR 0.72%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED  UP .28% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 179.03  POINTS OR 0.78%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1457.10

silver:$16.88-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.79% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.23 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.33 UP 6 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.38% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.08%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,16 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 111 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.51% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1009  DOWN     .0007 or 7 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.95 UP .343 OR YEN DOWN 343  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2886 UP .0066 POUND UP 66  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 17 basis points to 1.3310

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0363    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0332  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7470 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.08%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.76 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.20 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.34 UP 7  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 69.48 OR  0.95%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 82.57 POINTS OR .63%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 31.73POINTS 0.54%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 65.20 POINTS or 0.70%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 194.81 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.31 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.06 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    64.00  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.14 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 14 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.35 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  57.99//

 

 

BRENT :  63.63

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.03…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.20..BASIS TWO BASIS PTS..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1009 ( DOWN 7   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.94 UP .339 (YEN DOWN 34 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.32 UP 5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA  :1.2899 UP 80  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7418

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.99   DOWN 0.13 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3306 DOWN 2 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0324  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0324 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.35%

 

The Dow closed UP 190.85 POINTS OR 0.68%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 112.60 POINTS OR 0.27%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  11.89 CLOSED DOWN .45

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.917%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

VIXtermination Sends Stocks Surging Amid Massive Short-Squeeze

Everything’s going great…

 

 

 

Stocks decoupled from bonds, gold, and the dollar today, melting up aggressively at the US cash market open and close…

Source: Bloomberg

Thanks to the continuation of the biggest short-squeeze since early October…

Source: Bloomberg

Which sent Small Cap stocks exploding higher…NOTE – markets really went nowhere after Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

As Morgan Stanley warned – Smaller-capitalization companies could see a second full year of negative EPS growth.

Additionally, the Russell 2000 massively outperformed S&P SmallCap 600 massively today…

Source: Bloomberg

Dow futures algos were entirely focused on 28,000 today…

VIX was clubbed like a baby seal to the lowest since Oct 2018…

 

Treasury yields tumbled early and held the gains on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar extended its rebound today, taking out last week’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos crashed overnight only to see a big bid back to almost even during the day session…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin battered down to $6500 intraday before a major bounce…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities were chaotic today with oil higher and PMs lower…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI seems to have found a channel to play in ahead of the Aramco IPO…

 

Finally, as Bloomberg reports, market participants submitted $49.05 billion in bids for the Fed’s 42-day term repo operation, which matures Jan. 6, 2020. That was more than the $25 billion on offer. This was the first of three term operations to provide funding past the year-end period. The others will be held in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, overnight repo demands remain anything but transitory…

 

All of which is a huge deal as global liquidity is starting to decelerate (just as it did in April)

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Dow Tags 28k, Dumps In Catch-Down To Bonds, Gold

As if by magic, US equity indices were insta-bid at the always-bullish US cash market open… but as The Dow tagged 28k, it has rolled over…

…and is catching down to a bond/FX market that is not buying the exuberance…

 

 

 

Source: Bloomberg

“Efficient” indeed.

ii)Market data/USA

A very important national index on USA economic activity. It plunged to a two year low

(zerohedge)

Fed’s “National Activity Index” Plunges To 2-Year Low

Just when you thought it was safe to declare the “trough” is in for economic weakness, The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which draws on 85 economic indicators, was minus 0.71 in October versus minus 0.45 in September.

  • 27 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions
  • 58 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made negative contributions

Source: Bloomberg

And the recent rout of weakness has pushed the index to its weakest since October 2017…

A trade deal better hit soon (as if it’s not priced in) because The Fed claims its on hold into this renewed weakness.

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

We told you that the repo mess is not going away. The new Fed 42 day repo is oversubscribed in a scramble for year end liquidity

(zerohedge)

Fed’s 42-Day Repo 2x Oversubscribed In Scramble For Year End Liquidity

Traders were keenly looking ahead to the result from today’s 42-day repo as this was the Fed’s first liquidity-injection providing dealers with funding to carry them over into next year, as the operation was the first to mature in 2020 or January 6 to be precise. And, as many had feared, year-end liquidity fears remain front and center as the $25 billion operation proved to be roughly half the required size to satisfy all liquidity demands.

Dealers submitted $49.05BN in bids for the 42-day op ($33.55BN in Treasurys, $5BN in Agency, $10.5BN in MBS paper), resulting in a nearly 2x oversubscription of the $25BN in available repo.

While this was only the first operation providing liquidity into the new year, there are two more operations that will allow Dealers to lock in funding into 2020.

It remains a major question for funding markets why, even with QE4 in place and now daily overnight and short-term repo operations in place, banks continue to fret about year-end liquidity, where some fear a similar explosion in overnight repo rates as was observed on Dec 31, 2018 when General Collateral exploded amid a widespread liquidity shortage. Indeed, as Bloomberg puts it, “even with the Fed’s commitment to continue providing liquidity to the financial system around year-end, the market is still showing concerns. This is due to banks’ year-end balance-sheet constraints related to capital surcharges and other regulatory requirements.”

As are reminder, while most US bank have a GSIB surcharge of around 2%-3%, JPMorgan remains an outlier – and is perceived as the “riskiest” bank – with its 4.0% surcharge. It’s also the reason why the bank has been quietly pulling liquidity away from funding markets ahead of quarter-end periods.

For those curious how the Fed calculates the GSIB surcharge, Bank of America provided the following handy schematic:

Last week, when commenting on what it expects for year end liquidity pressures, BofA said that funding markets are currently very stable but the bank sees risks of repo pressure into year-end, as the Fed faces two funding issues into Y/E:

  1. a low level of reserves requiring ongoing large Fed repo injections
  2. dealer repo intermediation constraints stemming from the GSIB surcharge.

The way these issues are linked is through the Fed’s short-term repos; Fed repos pressure dealer balance sheets larger while GSIB constraints encourage dealers to shrink the overall size of their market making activities.

 

Separately, and in keeping with the recent tradition, the Fed also completed an overnight repo operation, which however showed less funding demand, as “only” $68.5 billion in securities were pledged in exchange for overnight liquidity with the Fed, well below the limit of $120 billion. Yet another troubling observation: while many have expected the total notional on overnight repos to decline over time, the daily use of the overnight repo has stabilized in the $60-$80 billion range and has failed to decline over the past month.

 

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

This is getting juicier by the minute:  Now we learn that the Hunter Biden company Rosemont Capital received over $130 million i Federal loans while Joe Biden was Vice President.  Huge conflict!

(zerohedge)

Hunter Biden-linked company received $130M in special federal loans while Joe Biden was vice president

An investment firm linked to Hunter Biden received over $130 million in federal bailout loans while his father Joe Biden was vice president and routed profits through a subsidiary in the Cayman Islands, according to federal banking and corporate records reviewed by the Washington Examiner.

Financial experts said the offshore corporate structure could have been used to shield earnings from U.S. taxes.

Rosemont Capital, an investment firm at the center of Hunter Biden’s much-scrutinized financial network, was one of the companies approved to participate in the 2009 federal loan program known as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF.

Under the program, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve Bank issued billions of dollars in highly favorable loans to select investors who agreed to buy bonds that banks were struggling to offload, including bundled college and auto loans.

According to federal records, 177 firms participated in TALF, many of them well connected in Washington or on Wall Street. For investors, there was little risk and a high chance of reward. The Federal Reserve funded as much as 90% of the investments. If the bonds were profitable, the borrowers benefited. If not, the department agreed to take over the depreciated assets with no repercussions for the borrowers.

“It’s very complicated to become qualified as a TALF borrower or as a TALF fund, if you will,” Carol Pepper, a wealth management specialist, told Forbes in 2009. “But that’s an example of where, if you can get into a TALF fund, you can benefit from this government program.”

Under the terms for the program, any U.S. company looking to invest in select categories of bonds was eligible to apply for the loans. However, the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve maintained the “right to reject a borrower for any reason,” and the internal selection process was criticized by some lawmakers as opaque and open to corruption.

“How can my constituents in Vermont get some of that money? Who makes the decisions? Do you guys sit around in a room — do you make it? Are there conflicts of interest?” Sen. Bernie Sanders asked Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke at a March 3, 2009, Senate hearing. “Do you have to be a large, greedy, reckless financial institution to apply for these monies?”

Joe Biden was a key advocate for the financial bailout, which was approved under the Bush administration and expanded under President Barack Obama. He delayed his Senate resignation in January 2009 to cast his final vote to increase funding for the Troubled Asset Relief Program before taking office as vice president.

“These guys are not the most likable guys in the world,” Biden said about the banks and hedge funds aided by the government intervention. “But here are the facts … Had we not bailed out the largest bank institutions in the world, there would have been a flat-out depression.”

One of the firms that benefited was Rosemont Capital, a company led by Hunter Biden’s business partners, Chris Heinz and Devon Archer. The firm received the loans at a crucial time for Hunter Biden. The younger Biden had stepped down from his lobbying business in late 2008, reportedly due to pressure on his father’s vice presidential campaign.

Biden, Heinz, and Archer incorporated Rosemont Seneca Partners in Delaware on June 25, 2009. The “alternative investment and market advisory firm” was an offshoot of Rosemont Capital, which held a 50% stake in the new venture. Rosemont Seneca and Rosemont Capital shared the same office address in lower Manhattan and the same New York phone number, according to Securities and Exchange Commission documents. Three weeks after Rosemont Seneca was incorporated, a subsidiary of Rosemont Capital, called Rosemont TALF SPV, received $23.5 million in federal loans through the TALF program. This included $13.4 million to invest in student loans and $11.1 million to invest in subprime auto loans. Over five months, the company received a total of $130 million from the program in multiple installments for investments in subprime credit cards and residential mortgages.

“This is a great example of the suspicion of many Americans that these bailouts were used to benefit connected insiders while ordinary Americans went broke,” said Tom Anderson, director of the Government Integrity Project at the National Legal and Policy Center, an organization that was critical of TALF at the time.

Although the government stopped issuing the loans at the end of 2009, the names of the well connected borrowers and investors were later released — prompting new criticism from lawmakers and the press. In April 2011, Rolling Stone reported that millions in TALF loans had been issued to the wife of Morgan Stanley Chairman John Mack, Miami Dolphins owner H. Wayne Huizenga, and Wall Street titan John Paulson, dubbing the program “welfare for the rich.”

“Our jaws are literally dropping as we’re reading this,” Warren Gunnels, an aide to Sanders, told Rolling Stone. “Every one of these transactions is outrageous.”

Sanders also raised concerns that borrowers were using the program to evade taxes. His office staff compiled a list of over 100 TALF investors based in the Cayman Islands and other known tax havens.

“It has been estimated that each year corporations and wealthy individuals avoid approximately $100 billion in U.S. taxes through the use of abusive and illegal tax shelters,” wrote Sanders in a letter to Bernanke. “Why would the Fed lend to material investors located in the Cayman Islands?”

Federal Reserve records show Rosemont Capital was one of the companies that set up an offshore limited partnership, called “Rosemont TALF Investment Fund LP,” to participate in the TALF program. The fund was incorporated in the Cayman Islands on May 14, 2009, and dissolved on Nov. 14, 2014, according to corporate records in the British territory. The fund was managed by a Delaware-based subsidiary of Rosemont called “Rosemont TALF GP,” SEC records show.

Another investor in Rosemont’s TALF fund, called “Rosemont TALF Opportunities Fund II,” was also based in the Cayman Islands. Additional Rosemont TALF investors included two Greek shipping magnates, a California class action attorney and a financial trust based in Liberia.

Tax experts said the Cayman Islands were a popular location at the time for hedge funds and corporations to set up subsidiaries in order to avoid paying certain U.S. taxes. Didier Jacobs, a senior policy adviser at Oxfam America who focuses on international finance, said an estimated $2.7 trillion was parked in the Cayman Islands and other tax havens prior to the U.S. tax reform in 2017.

“As long as it was sitting there, it was not taxed. That’s why there was a lot of money sitting there in the Cayman Islands,” said Jacobs.

Steve Rosenthal, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said the use of an offshore company could also help investment firms reduce the tax liability for foreign or tax-exempt investors who could otherwise be subject to U.S. taxes.

Matt Gardner, a senior fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, said the most likely reason for setting up a company in the Cayman Islands would be to take advantage of its tax laws.

It seems like a pretty basic ask that any recipient of these TALF loans would act in certain ways. And one of those ways would be to not organize their businesses to avoid taxes in the Caymans,” said Gardner.

END

This is a very important read:  John Solomon’s 28 facts crashing the debunked conspiracyacy of the Democrats

(John Solomon)

John Solomon Drops 28 Uncomfortable Facts Crushing The ‘Debunked Conspiracy Theory’ Narrative

Authored by John Solomon via John Solomon Reports  (emphasis ours)

I honor and applaud Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman’s service to his country. He’s a hero. I also respect his decision to testify at the impeachment proceedings. I suspect neither his service nor his testimony was easy.

But I also know the liberties that Lt. Col. Vindman fought on the battlefield to preserve permit for a free and honest debate in America, one that can’t be muted by the color of uniform or the crushing power of the state.

 

So I want to exercise my right to debate Lt. Col. Vindman about the testimony he gave about me. You see, under oath to Congress, he asserted all the factual elements in my columns at The Hill about Ukraine were false, except maybe my grammar

Here are his exact words:

I think all the key elements were false,” Vindman testified.

Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y, pressed him about what he meant. “Just so I understand what you mean when you say key elements, are you referring to everything John Solomon stated or just some of it?”

“All the elements that I just laid out for you. The criticisms of corruption were false… Were there more items in there, frankly, congressman? I don’t recall. I haven’t looked at the article in quite some time, but you know, his grammar might have been right.”

Such testimony has been injurious to my reputation, one earned during 30 years of impactful reporting for news organizations that included The Associated Press, The Washington Post, The Washington Times and The Daily Beast/Newsweek.

 

And so Lt. Col. Vindman, here are the 28 primary factual elements in my Ukraine columns, complete with attribution and links to sourcing. Please tell me which, if any, was factually wrong.

Fact 1Hunter Biden was hired in May 2014 by Burisma Holdings, a Ukrainian natural gas company, at a time when his father Joe Biden was Vice President and overseeing US-Ukraine Policy. Here is the announcement. Hunter Biden’s hiring came just a few short weeks after Joe Biden urged Ukraine to expand natural gas production and use Americans to help. You can read his comments to the Ukrainian prime minister hereHunter Biden’s firm then began receiving monthly payments totaling $166,666. You can see those payments here.

Fact 2Burisma was under investigation by British authorities for corruption and soon came under investigation by Ukrainian authorities led by Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin.

Fact 3: Vice President Joe Biden and his office were alerted by a December 2015 New York Times article that Shokin’s office was investigating Burisma and that Hunter Biden’s role at the company was undercutting his father’s anticorruption efforts in Ukraine.

Fact 4The Biden-Burisma issue created the appearance of a conflict of interest, especially for State Department officials. I especially refer you to State official George Kent’s testimony hereHe testified he viewed Burisma as corrupt and the Bidens as creating the perception of a conflict of interest.His concerns both caused him to contact the vice president’s office and to block a project that State’s USAID agency was planning with Burisma in 2016. In addition, Ambassador Yovanovitch testified she, too, saw the Bidens-Burisma connection as creating the appearance of a conflict of interest. You can read her testimony here.

Fact 5: The Obama White House invited Shokin’s prosecutorial team to Washington for meetings in January 2016 to discuss their anticorruption investigations. You can read about that here. Also, here is the official agenda for that meeting in Ukraine and English. I call your attention to the NSC organizer of the meeting.

Fact 6: The Ukraine investigation of Hunter Biden’s employer, Burisma Holdings, escalated in February 2016 when Shokin’s office raided the home of company owner Mykola Zlochevsky and seized his property. Here is the announcement of that court-approved raid.

Fact 7Shokin was making plans in February 2016 to interview Hunter Biden as part of his investigation. You can read his interview with me here, his sworn deposition to a court here and his interview with ABC News here.

Fact 8: Burisma’s American representatives lobbied the State Department in late February 2016 to help end the corruption allegations against the company, and specifically invoked Hunter Biden’s name as a reason to intervene. You can read State officials’ account of that effort here

Fact 9: Joe Biden boasted in a 2018 videotape that he forced Ukraine’s president to fire Shokin in March 2016 by threatening to withhold $1 billion in U.S. aid. You can view his videotape here.

Fact 10: Shokin stated in interviews with me and ABC News that he was told he was fired because Joe Biden was unhappy the Burisma investigation wasn’t shut down. He made that claim anew in this sworn deposition prepared for a court in Europe. You can read that here.

Fact 11:  The day Shokin’s firing was announced in March 2016, Burisma’s legal representatives sought an immediate meeting with his temporary replacement to address the ongoing investigation. You can read the text of their emails here.

Fact 12Burisma’s legal representatives secured that meeting April 6, 2016 and told Ukrainian prosecutors that “false information” had been spread to justify Shokin’s firing, according to a Ukrainian government memo about the meeting. The representatives also offered to arrange for the remaining Ukrainian prosecutors to meet with U.S  State and Justice officials. You can read the Ukrainian prosecutors’ summary memo of the meeting here and here and the Burisma lawyers’ invite to Washington here.

Fact 13: Burisma officials eventually settled the Ukraine investigations in late 2016 and early 2017, paying a multimillion dollar fine for tax issues. You can read their lawyer’s February 2017 announcement of the end of the investigations here.

Fact 14: In March 2019, Ukraine authorities reopened an investigation against Burisma and Zlochevsky based on new evidence of money laundering. You can read NABU’s February 2019 recommendation to re-open the case here, the March 2019 notice of suspicion by Ukraine prosecutors here and a May 2019 interview here with a Ukrainian senior law enforcement official stating the investigation was ongoing. Andhere is an announcement this week that the Zlochevsky/Burisma probe has been expanded to include allegations of theft of Ukrainian state funds.

Fact 15: The Ukraine embassy in Washington issued a statement in April 2019 admitting that a Democratic National Committee contractor named Alexandra Chalupa solicited Ukrainian officials in spring 2016 for dirt on Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort in hopes of staging a congressional hearing close to the 2016 election that would damage Trump’s election chances. You can read the embassy’s statement here and here. Your colleague, Dr. Fiona Hill, confirmed this episode, testifying “Ukraine bet on the wrong horse. They bet on Hillary Clinton winning.” You can read her testimony here.

Fact 16: Chalupa sent an email to top DNC officials in May 2016 acknowledging she was working on the Manafort issue. You can read the email here.

Fact 17: Ukraine’s ambassador to Washington, Valeriy Chaly, wrote an OpEd in The Hill in August 2016 slamming GOP nominee Donald Trump for his policies on Russia despite a Geneva Convention requirement that ambassadors not become embroiled in the internal affairs or elections of their host countries. You can read Ambassador Chaly’s OpEd here and the Geneva Convention rules of conduct for foreign diplomats here. And your colleagues Ambassador Yovanovitch and Dr. Hill both confirmed this, with Dr. Hill testifying this week that Chaly’s OpEd was “probably not the most advisable thing to do.”

Fact 18: A Ukrainian district court ruled in December 2018 that the summer 2016 release of information by Ukrainian Parliamentary member Sergey Leschenko and NABU director Artem Sytnyk about an ongoing investigation of Manafort amounted to an improper interference by Ukraine’s government in the 2016 U.S. election.  You can read the court ruling here. Leschenko and Sytnyk deny the allegations, and have won an appeal to suspend that ruling on a jurisdictional technicality.

Fact 19: George Soros’ Open Society Foundation issued a memo in February 2016 on its strategy for Ukraine, identifying the nonprofit Anti-Corruption Action Centre as the lead for its efforts. You can read the memo here.

Fact 20: The State Department and Soros’ foundation jointly funded the Anti-Corruption Action Centre. You can read about that funding here from the Centre’s own funding records and George Kent’s testimony about it here.

Fact 21: In April 2016, US embassy charge d’affaires George Kent sent a letter to the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office demanding that Ukrainian prosecutors stand down a series of investigations into how Ukrainian nonprofits spent U.S. aid dollars, including the Anti-Corruption Actions Centre. You can read that letter here. Kent testified he signed the letter here.

Fact 22: Then-Ukraine Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko said in a televised interview with me that Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch during a 2016 meeting provided the lists of names of Ukrainian nationals and groups she did want to see prosecuted. You can see I accurately quoted him by watching the video here.

Fact 23: Ambassador Yovanovitch and her embassy denied Lutsenko’s claim, calling it a “fabrication.” I reported their reaction here.

Fact 24: Despite the differing accounts of what happened at the Lutsenko-Yovanovitch meeting, a senior U.S. official in an interview arranged by the State Department stated to me in spring 2019 that US officials did pressure Lutsenko’s office on several occasions not to “prosecute, investigate or harass” certain Ukrainian activists, including Parliamentary member Leschenko, journalist Vitali Shabunin, the Anti-Corruption Action Centre and NABU director Sytnyk. You can read that official’s comments here. In addition, George Kent confirmed this same information in his deposition here.

Fact 25: In May 2018, then-House Rules Committee chairman Pete Sessions sent an official congressional letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo asking that Yovanovitch be recalled as ambassador to Ukraine. Sessions and State confirmed the official letter, which you can read here.

Fact 26: In fall 2018, Ukrainian prosecutors, using a third party, hired an American lawyer (a former U.S. attorney) to proffer information to the U.S. government about certain activities at the U.S. embassy, involving Burisma and involving the 2016 election, that they believed might have violated U.S. law. You can read their account here. You can also confirm it independently by talking to the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan or the American lawyer representing the Ukrainian prosecutors’ interests.

Fact 27: In May 2016, one of George Soros’ top aides secured a meeting with the top Eurasia policy official in the State Department to discuss Russian bond issues. You can read the State memos on that meeting here.

Fact 28: In June 2016, Soros himself secured a telephonic meeting with Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland to discuss Ukraine policy. You can read the State memos on that meeting here.

Lt. Col. Vindman, if you have information that contradicts any of these 28 factual elements in my columns I ask that you make it publicly available. Your testimony did not.

If you don’t have evidence these 28 facts are wrong, I ask that you correct your testimony because any effort to call factually accurate reporting false only misleads America and chills the free debate our Constitutional framers so cherished to protect.

END
Another very read…the history of how the Ukraine came to be and how this nation is in the Russian sphere of influence and not the West,
(David Stockman)

David Stockman Exposes The Ukrainian Influence-Peddling Rings, Part 2

Authored by David Stockman via AntiWar.com,

Read Part 1 here…

Sometimes you need to call a spade a spade, and Tuesday’s testimony before Adam’s Schiff Show by former NSC official Tim Morrison is just such an occasion. In spades!

In his opening statement, this paranoid moron uttered the following lunacy, and it’s all you need to know about what is really going on down in the Imperial City.

“I continue to believe Ukraine is on the front lines of a strategic competition between the West and Vladimir Putin’s revanchist Russia. Russia is a failing power, but it is still a dangerous one. The United States aids Ukraine and her people so they can fight Russia over there and we don’t have to fight Russia here.

Folks, that just plain whacko. The Trump-hating Dems are so feverishly set on a POTUS kill that they have enlisted a veritable posse of Russophobic, right-wing neocon cretins – Morrison, Taylor, Kent, Vindman, among others – to finish off the Donald.

But in so doing they have made official Washington’s real beef against Trump crystal clear; and it’s not about the rule of law or abuse of presidential power or an impeachable dereliction of duty.

To be sure, foolish politicians like Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler and the Clintonista apparatus at the center of the Dem party are so overcome with inconsolable grief and anger about losing the 2016 election to Trump that their sole purpose in life is to drive the Donald from office. But that just makes them “useful idiots” or compliant handmaids of the Deep State, which has a far more encompassing and consequential motivation.

To wit, whether out of naiveté, contrariness or just plain common sense, the Donald has declined to embrace the War Party’s Russian bogeyman and demonization of Putin. He thereby threatens the Empire’s raison d’être to the very core.

Indeed, that’s the real reason for the whole concerted attack on Trump from the Russian Collusion hoax, through the Mueller Investigation farce to the present UkraineGate and impeachment inquisition. The Deep State deeply and profoundly fears that if Trump remains in office – and especially if he is elected with a new mandate in 2020 – he might actually make peace with Russia and Putin.

So in Part 1 we advert to the basics. Without the demonization of Russia, Ukraine would be the no count failed state and cesspool of corruption it actually is, and not a purported “front line” buffer against Russian aggression.

Likewise, it would not have been a recipient of vast US and western military and economic aid – a condition that turned it into a honeypot for the kind of Washington influence peddling which ensnared the Bidens, induced its officials to meddle in the 2016 US election, and, in return, incited Trump’s justifiable quest to get to the bottom of the malignancy that has ensued.

So the starting point is to identify Russia for what it actually is: Namely, a kleptocratic state sitting atop an aging, Vodka-chugging population and third-rate economy with virtually zero capacity to project 21st century offensive military power beyond its own borders.

That truth, of course, shatters the whole foundation of the Warfare State. It renders NATO an obsolete relic and eviscerates the case for America’s absurd $900 billion defense and national security budget. And with the latter’s demise, the fairest part of Washington’s imperial self-importance and unseemly national security spending-based prosperity would also crumble.

But in their frenzied pursuit of the Donald’s political scalp, the Dems may be inadvertently sabotaging their Deep State masters. That’s because the neocon knuckleheads they are dragging out of the NSC and State Department woodwork are such bellicose simpletons – just maybe their utterly preposterous testimony about the Russkie threat and Ukrainian “front line” will wake up the somnolent American public to the absurdity of the entire Cold War 2.0 campaign.

Indeed, you almost have to ask whether the bit about fighting the Russkies in the Donbas rather than on the shores of New Jersey from Morrison’s opening statement quoted above was reprinted in the New York Times or The Onion?

The fact is, the fearsome Russian bogeyman cited by Morrison yesterday – and Ambassador Taylor, George Kent and Lt. Colonel Vindman previously – is a complete chimera; and the notion that the cesspool of corruption in Ukraine is a strategic buffer against Russian aggression is just plain idiocy.

Russia is actually an economic and industrial midget transformed beyond recognition by relentless Warfare State propaganda. It is actually no more threatening to America’s homeland security than the Siberian land mass that Sarah Palin once espied from her front porch in Alaska a decade ago.

After all, how could it be? The the GDP of the New York City metro area alone is about $1.8 trillion, which is well more than Russia’s 2018 GDP of $1.66 trillion. And that, in turn, is just 8% of America’s total GDP of $21.5 trillion.

Moreover, Russia’ dwarf economy is composed largely of a vast oil and gas patch; a multitude of nickel, copper, bauxite and vanadium mines; and some very large swatches of wheat fields. That’s not exactly the kind of high tech industrial platform on which a war machine capable of threatening the good folks in Lincoln NE or Worchester MA is likely to be erected.

And especially not when the Russian economy has been heading sharply south in dollar purchasing terms for several years running.

GDP of Russia In Millions of USD

Indeed, in terms of manufacturing output, the comparison is just as stark. Russia’s annual manufacturing value added is currently about $200 billion compared to $2.2 trillion for the US economy.

And that’s not the half of it. Not only are Russia’s vast hydrocarbon deposits and mines likely to give out in the years ahead, but so are the livers of its Vodka-chugging work force. That’s a problem because according to a recent Brookings study, Russia’s working age population – even supplemented by substantial in-migration and guest worker programs – is heading south as far into the future as the eye can see.

Even in the Brookings medium case projection shown below, Russia’s working age population will be nearly 20% smaller than today by 2050. Yet today’s figure of about 85 million is already just a fraction of the US working age population of 255 million.

Russia’s Shrinking Work Force

Not surprisingly, Russia’s pint-sized economy can not support a military establishment anywhere near to that of Imperial Washington. To wit, its $61 billion of military outlays in 2018 amounted to less than 32 days of Washington’s current $750 billion of expenditures for defense.

Indeed, it might well be asked how Russia could remotely threaten homeland security in America short of what would be a suicidal nuclear first strike.

That’s because the 1,600 deployed nuclear weapons on each side represent a continuation of mutual deterrence (MAD) – the arrangement by which we we got through 45-years of cold war when the Kremlin was run by a totalitarian oligarchy committed to a hostile ideology; and during which time it had been armed to the teeth via a forced-draft allocation of upwards of 40% of the GDP of the Soviet empire to the military.

By comparison, the Russian defense budget currently amounts to less than 4% of the country’s anemic present day economy – one shorn of the vast territories and populations of Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and all the Asian “stans” among others. Yet given those realities we are supposed to believe that the self-evidently calculating and cautious kleptomaniac who runs the Kremlin is going to go mad, defy MAD and trigger a nuclear Armageddon?

Indeed, the idea that Russia presents a national security threat to America is laughable. Not only would Putin never risk nuclear suicide, but even that fantasy is the extent of what he’s got. That is, Russia’s conventional capacity to project force to the North American continent is nonexistent – or at best, lies somewhere between nichts and nothing.

For example, in today’s world you do not invade any foreign continent without massive sea power projection capacity in the form of aircraft carrier strike groups. These units consist of an armada of lethal escort ships, a fleet of aircraft, massive suites of electronics warfare capability and the ability to launch hundreds of cruise missiles and other smart weapons.

Each US aircraft carrier based strike group, in fact, is composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, at least one cruiser, a squadron of destroyers and/or frigates, and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircraft. A carrier strike group also sometimes includes submarines and attached logistics ships.

The US has eleven such carrier strike groups. Russia has zero modern carrier strike groups and one beat-up, smoky old (diesel) aircraft carrier that the Israeli paper, Haaretz, described as follows when it recently entered the Mediterranean:

Russia’s only aircraft carrier, a leftover from the days of Soviet power, carries a long history of mishaps, at sea and in port, and diesel engines which were built for Russia’s cold waters – as shown by the column of black smoke raising above it. It needs frequent refueling and resupplies and has never been operationally tested.

Indeed, from our 19th floor apartment on the East River in NYC, even we could see this smoke belcher coming up Long Island Sound with an unaided eye – with no help needed at all from the high tech spyware of the nation’s $80 billion intelligence apparatus.

Yet Morrison had the audacity to say before a committee of the U.S. House that we are aiding Ukraine so we don’t have to fight Russians on the banks of the East River or the Potomac!

For want of doubt, just compare the above image of the Admiral Kuznetsov belching smoke in the Mediterranean with that of the Gerald R. Ford CVN 48 next below.

The latter is the US Navy’s new $13 billion aircraft carrier and is the most technologically advanced warship ever built.

The contrast shown below serves as a proxy for the vastly inferior capability of the limited number of ships and planes in Russia’s conventional force. What it does have numerical superiority in is tanks – but alas they are not amphibious nor ocean-capable!

Likewise, nobody invades anybody without massive airpower and the ability to project it across thousands of miles of oceans via vast logistics and air-refueling capabilities.

On that score, the US has 6,100 helicopters to Russia’s 1,200 and 6,000 fixed wing fighter and attack aircraft versus Russia’s 2,100. More importantly, the US has 5,700 transport and airlift aircraft compared to just 1,100 for Russia.

In short, the idea that Russia is a military threat to the US homeland is ludicrous. Russia is essentially a landlocked military shadow of the former Soviet war machine. Indeed, for the world’s only globe-spanning imperial power to remonstrate about an aggressive threat from Moscow is a prime facie case of the pot calling the kettle black.

Moreover, the canard that Washington’s massive conventional armada is needed to defend Europe is risible nonsense. Europe can and should take care of its own security and relationship with its neighbor on the Eurasian continent.

After all, the GDP of NATO Europe is $18 trillion or 12X greater than that of Russia, and the current military budgets of European NATO members total about $280 billion or 4X more than that of Russia.

More importantly, the European nations and people really do not have any quarrel with Putin’s Russia, nor is their security and safety threatened by the latter. All of the tensions that do exist and have come to a head since the illegal coup in Kiev in February 2014 were fomented by Imperial Washington and its European subalterns in the NATO machinery.

Then again, the latter is absolutely the most useless, obsolete, wasteful and dangerous multilateral institution in the present world. But like the proverbial clothes-less emperor, NATO doesn’t dare risk having the purportedly “uninformed” amateur in the Oval Office pointing out its buck naked behind.

So the NATO subservient think tanks and establishment policy apparatchiks are harrumphing up a storm, but for crying out loud most of Europe’s elected politicians are in on the joke. They are fiscally swamped paying for their Welfare States and are not about to squeeze their budgets or taxpayers to fund military muscle against a nonexistent threat.

As the late, great Justin Raimondo aptly noted,

Finally an American president has woken up to the fact that World War II, not to mention the cold war, is over: there’s no need for US troops to occupy Germany.

Vladimir Putin isn’t going to march into Berlin in a reenactment of the Red Army taking the Fuehrer-bunker – but even if he were so inclined, why won’t Germany defend itself?

Exactly. If their history proves anything, Germans are not a nation of pacifists, meekly willing to bend-over in the face of real aggressors. Yet they spent the paltry sum of $43 billion on defense during 2018, or barely 1.1% of Germany’s $4.0 trillion GDP, which happens to be roughly three times bigger than Russia’s.

In short, the policy action of the German government tells you they don’t think Putin is about to invade the Rhineland or retake the Brandenburg Gate.

And this live action testimonial also trumps, as it were, all of the risible alarms that have emanated from the beltway think tanks and the 4,000 NATO bureaucrats talking their own book in behalf of their plush Brussels sinecures.

And as we will outline in Part 2, that’s what Washington’s Ukraine intervention is all about, and why the Donald’s efforts to get to the bottom of that cesspool has brought on the final Deep State assault against his presidency.

Part 2 – Democrats Empower a Pack of Paranoid Neocon Morons

In Part 1 we dispatched UkraineGater Tim Morrison’s preposterous suggestion that Washington is helping Kiev subdue the Donbas so we won’t have Russkies coming up the East River.

Yet his related claim that Ukraine is a victim of Russian aggression is even more ludicrous. The actual aggression in that godforsaken corner of the planet came from Washington when it instigated, funded, engineered and recognized the putsch on the streets of Kiev during February 2014, which illegally overthrew the duly elected President of Ukraine on the grounds that he was too friendly with Moscow.

Thus, Morrison risibly asserted that,

Support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty has been a bipartisan objective since Russia’s military invasion in 2014. It must continue to be.

The fact is, when the Maidan uprising occurred in February that year there were no uninvited Russian troops anywhere in Ukraine. Putin was actually sitting in his box on the viewing stand, presiding over the Winter Olympics in Sochi and basking in the limelight of global attention that they commanded.

It was only weeks later – when the Washington-installed ultra-nationalist government with its neo-Nazi vanguard threatened the Russian-speaking populations of Crimea and the Donbas – that Putin moved to defend Russian interests on his own doorstep. And those interests included Russia’s primary national security asset – the naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea which had been the homeport of the Russian Black Sea Fleet for centuries under czars and commissars alike, and on which Russia had a long-term lease.

We untangle the truth of the crucial events which surrounded the Kiev putsch in greater detail below, but suffice it here to note the whole gang of neocon apparatchiks which have been paraded before the Schiff Show have proffered the same Big Lie as did Morrison in the “invasion” quote cited above.

As the ever perspicacious Robert Merry observed regarding the previous testimony of Ambassador Bill Taylor and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State George Kent, the Washington rendition of the Maidan coup and its aftermath amounts to a blatant falsehood:

The Taylor/Kent outlook stems from the widespread demonization of Russia that dominates thinking within elite circles. Taylor’s rendition of recent events in Ukraine was so one-sided and selective as to amount to a falsehood.

As he had it, Ukraine’s turn to the West after 2009 (when he left the country after his first diplomatic tour there) threatened Russia’s Vladimir Putin to such an extent that he tried to “bribe” Ukraine’s president with inducements to resist Western influence, whereupon protests emerged in Kyiv that drove the Ukrainian president to flee the country in 2014. Then Putin invaded Crimea, holding a “sham referendum at the point of Russian army rifles.” Putin sent military forces into eastern Ukraine “to generate illegal armed formations and puppet governments.” And so the West extended military assistance to Ukraine.

“It is this security assistance,” he said, “that is at the heart of the [impeachment] controversy that we are discussing today.”

Taylor’s right that this narrative is at the center of UkraineGate, but there is not a shred of truth to it. Nevertheless, defense of this false narrative, and the inappropriate military and economic aid to Ukraine which flowed from it, is the real reason this posse of neocon stooges took exception to the Donald’s legitimate interest in investigating the Bidens and the events of 2016.

As Morrison put it Tuesday and Vindman said last week, their interest was in protecting not the constitution and the rule of law, but the bipartisan political consensus on Capitol Hill in favor of their proxy war on Putin and the Ukraine aid package through which it was being prosecuted.

As I stated during my deposition, I feared at the time of the call on July 25 how its disclosure would play in Washington’s political climate. My fears have been realized.

Not surprisingly, the entire Washington establishment has been sucked into this scam. For instance, the insufferably sanctimonious Peggy Noonan used her Wall Street Journal platform to idolize these liars.

As she portrayed it, bow-tie bedecked George P. Kent appeared to be the very picture of the old-school American foreign service official. And West Pointer Bill Taylor – with a military career going back to (dubious) Vietnam heroism – was redolent of the blunt-spoken American military men who won WW II and the cold war which followed.

As Robert Merry further noted,

She saw them as “the old America reasserting itself.” They demonstrated “stature and command of their subject matter.” They evinced “capability and integrity.”

Oh, puleeze!

What they evinced was nothing more than the self-serving groupthink that has turned Ukraine into a beltway goldmine. That is, a cornucopia of funding for all the think tanks, NGOs, foreign policy experts, national security contractors and Warfare State agencies – from DOD through the State Department, AID, the National Endowment for Democracy, the Board for International Broadcasting and countless more – which ply their trade in the Imperial City.

But Robert Merry got it right. These cats are not noble public servants and heroes; they’re apparatchiks and payrollers aggrandizing their own power and pelf – even as they lead the nation to the brink of disaster:

But these men embrace a geopolitical outlook that is simplistic, foolhardy, and dangerous. Perhaps no serious blame should accrue to them, since it is the same geopolitical outlook embraced and enforced by pretty much the entire foreign policy establishment, of which these men are mere loyal apparatchiks. And yet they are playing their part in pushing a foreign policy that is directing America towards a very possible disaster.

Neither man manifested even an inkling of an understanding of what kind of game the United States in playing with Ukraine. Neither gave even a nod to the long, complex relationship between Ukraine and Russia. Neither seemed to understand either the substance or the intensity of Russia’s geopolitical interests along its own borders or the likely consequences of increasing U.S. meddling in what for centuries has been part of Russia’s sphere of influence.

They obviously didn’t get it, but we must. So let us summarize the true Ukraine story, starting with the utterly stupid and historically ignorant reason for Washington’s February 2014 coup.

Namely, it objected to the decision of Ukraine’s prior government in late 2013 to align itself economically and politically with its historic hegemon in Moscow rather than the European Union and NATO. Yet the fairly elected and constitutionally legitimate government of Ukraine then led by Viktor Yanukovych had gone that route mainly because it got a better deal from Moscow than was being demanded by the fiscal torture artists of the IMF.

Needless to say, the ensuing US sponsored putsch arising from the mobs on the street of Kiev reopened deep national wounds. Ukraine’s bitter divide between Russian-speakers in the east and Ukrainian nationalists elsewhere dates back to Stalin’s brutal rein in Ukraine during the 1930s and Ukrainian collusion with Hitler’s Wehrmacht on its way to Stalingrad and back during the 1940s.

It was the memory of the latter nightmare, in fact, which triggered the fear-driven outbreak of Russian separatism in the Donbas and the 96% referendum vote in Crimea in March 2014 to formally re-affiliate with Mother Russia

 

In this context, even a passing familiarity with Russian history and geography would remind that Ukraine and Crimea are Moscow’s business, not Washington’s.

In the first place, there is nothing at stake in the Ukraine that matters. During the last 800 years it has been a meandering set of borders in search of a country.

In fact, the intervals in which the Ukraine existed as an independent nation have been few and far between. Invariably, its rulers, petty potentates and corrupt politicians made deals with or surrendered to every outside power that came along.

These included the Lithuanians, Poles, Ruthenians (eastern Slavs), Tartars, Turks, Muscovites, Austrians and Czars, among manifold others.

At the beginning of the 16th century, for instance, the territory of today’s Ukraine was scattered largely among the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Ruthenia (light brown area), the Kingdom of Poland (dark brown area), Muscovy (bright yellow area) the Crimean Khanate (light yellow area).

The latter was the entity which emerged when some clans of the Golden Horde (Tartars) ceased their nomadic life on the Asian steppes and occupied the light yellow stripped areas of the map north of the Black Sea as their Yurt (homeland).

From that cold start, the tiny Cossack principality of Ukraine (blue area below), which had emerged by 1654, grew significantly over the subsequent three centuries. But as the map also makes clear, this did not reflect the organic congealment of a nation of kindred volk sharing common linguistic and ethnic roots, but the machinations of Czars and Commissars for the administrative convenience of efficiently ruling their conquests and vassals.

Thus, much of modern Ukraine was incorporated by the Russian Czars between 1654 and 1917 per the yellow area of the map and functioned as vassal states. These territories were amalgamated by absolute monarchs who ruled by the mandate of God and the often brutal sword of their own armies.

In particular, much of the purple area was known as “Novo Russia” (Novorossiya) during the 18th and 19th century owing to the Czarist policy of relocating Russian populations to the north of the Black Sea as a bulwark against the Ottomans. But after Lenin seized power in St. Petersburg in November 1917 amidst the wreckage of Czarist Russia, an ensuing civil war between the so-called White Russians and the Red Bolsheviks raged for several years in these territories and elsewhere in the chaotic regions of the former western Russian Empire.

At length, Lenin won the civil war as the French, British, Polish and American contingents vacated the postwar struggle for power in Russia. Accordingly, in 1922 the new Communist rulers proclaimed the Union of Soviet Social Republics (USSR) and incorporated Novo Russia into one of its four constituent units as the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR) – along with the Russian, Belarus and Transcaucasian SSRs.

Thereafter the border and political status of Ukraine remained unchanged until the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939 between the USSR and Nazi Germany. Pursuant thereto the Red Army and Nazi Germany invaded and dismembered Poland, with Stalin getting the blue areas (Volhynia and parts of Galicia) as consolation prizes, which where then incorporated into the Ukrainian SSR.

Finally, when Uncle Joe Stalin died and Nikita Khrushchev won the bloody succession struggle in 1954, he transferred Crimea (red area) to the Ukraine SSR as a reward to his supporters in Kiev. That, of course, was the arbitrary writ of the Soviet Presidium, given that precious few Ukrainians actually lived in what had been a integral part of Czarist Russia after it was purchased by Catherine the Great from the Turks in 1783.

In a word, the borders of modern Ukraine are the handiwork of Czarist emperors and Communist butchers. The so-called international rule of law had absolutely nothing to do with its gestation and upbringing.

It’s a pity, therefore, that none of the so-called conservative Republicans attending Adam’s Schiff Show saw fit to ask young Tim Morrison the obvious question.

To wit, exactly why is he (and most of the Washington foreign policy establishment) so keen on expending American treasure, weapons and even blood in behalf of the “territorial integrity and sovereignty” of this happenstance amalgamation of people subdued by some of history’s most despicable tyrants?

Needless to say, owing to this very history, the linguistic/ethnic composition of today’s Ukraine does not reflect the congealment of a “nation” in the historic sense.

To the contrary, central and western Ukraine is populated by ethnic Ukrainians who speak Ukrainian (dark red area), whereas the two parts of the country allegedly the victim of Russian aggression and occupation – Crimea (brown area) and the eastern Donbas region (yellow area with brown strips) – are comprised of ethnic Russians who speak Russian and ethnic Ukrainians who predominately speak-Russian, respectively.

And much of the rest of the territory consists of admixtures and various Romanian, Moldovan, Hungarian and Bulgarian minorities.

Did the Washington neocons – led by Senator McCain and Assistant Secretary Victoria Nuland – who triggered the Ukrainian civil war with their coup on the streets of Kiev in February 2014 consider the implications of the map below and its embedded, and often bloody, history?

Quite surely, they did not.

Nor did they consider the rest of the map. That is, the enveloping Russian state all around to which the parts and pieces of Ukraine – especially the Donbas and Crimea – have been intimately connected for centuries. Robert Merry thus further noted,

As Nikolas K. Gvosdev of the US Naval War College has written, Russia and Ukraine share a 1,500-mile border where Ukraine “nestles up against the soft underbelly of the Russian Federation.” Gvosdev elaborates: “The worst nightmare of the Russian General Staff would be NATO forces deployed all along this frontier, which would put the core of Russia’s population and industrial capacity at risk of being quickly and suddenly overrun in the event of any conflict.” Beyond that crucial strategic concern, the two countries share strong economic, trade, cultural, ethnic, and language ties going back centuries. No Russian leader of any stripe would survive as leader if he or she were to allow Ukraine to be wrested fully from Russia’s sphere of influence.

And yet America, in furtherance of the ultimate aim of pulling Ukraine away from Russia, spent some $5 billion in a campaign to gin up pro-Western sentiment there, according to former assistant secretary of state for European Affairs Victoria Nuland, who spearheaded much of this effort during the Obama administration. It was clearly a blatant effort to interfere in the domestic politics of a foreign nation – and a nation residing in a delicate and easily inflamed part of the world.

Indeed, Ukraine is a tragically divided country and fissured simulacrum of a nation. Professor Samuel Huntington of Harvard called Ukraine “a cleft country, with two distinct cultures” causing Robert Merry to rightly observe that,

Contrary to Taylor’s false portrayal of an aggressive Russia trampling on eastern Ukrainians by setting up puppet governments and manufacturing a bogus referendum in Crimea, the reality is that large numbers of Ukrainians there favor Russia and feel loyalty to what they consider their Russian heritage. The Crimean public is 70 percent Russian, and its Parliament in 1992 actually voted to declare independence from Ukraine for fear that the national leadership would nudge the country toward the West. (The vote was later rescinded to avoid a violent national confrontation.) In 1994, Crimea elected a president who had campaigned on a platform of “unity with Russia.”

In short, in modern times Ukraine largely functioned as an integral part of Mother Russia, serving as its breadbasket and iron and steel crucible under czars and commissars alike. Given this history, the idea that Ukraine should be actively and aggressively induced to join NATO was just plain nuts, as we will amplify further in Part 3 (to come).

END

Seems that Joe Biden has just threatened Lindsay Graham

(zerohedge)

 

Did Joe Biden Just Threaten Lindsey Graham For Investigating Him?

Former Vice President Joe Biden lashed out at Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) for launching an investigation into whether Biden abused his office when he had Ukraine’s top prosecutor fired while he was looking into Burisma Holdings, the Ukrainian gas company paying Hunter Biden to sit on its board.

Lindsey is about to go down in a way that I think he’s going to regret his whole life,” Biden told CNN host Don Lemon in a Friday interview in South Carolina.

“I say Lindsey, I just — I’m just embarrassed by what you’re doing, for you. I mean, my Lord.”

They have him under their thumb right now. They know he knows that if he comes out against Trump, he’s got a real tough road for reelection, number one,” Biden continued. “He knows me; he knows my son; he knows there’s nothing to this. Trump is now essentially holding power over him that even the Ukrainians wouldn’t yield to. The Ukrainians would not yield to, quote, ‘investigate Biden’ — there’s nothing to investigate about Biden or his son.

On Thursday, Graham sent a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo seeking all documents and communications related to Joe Biden’s phone calls with Ukraine’s former president Petro Poroshenho which occurred Feb. 11, 18 and 19 as well as March 22, 2016, citing media reports that the two discussed firing the Prosecutor General, Viktor Shokin.

In addition, Graham is seeking all documents and communications between Biden, his office, and Poroshenko’s office spanning the period from when Burisma founder Mykola Zlocheveky’s home was raided and Shokin was dismissed.

Graham notes in his letter that Hunter Biden followed longtime Joe Biden aide Tony Blinken over Twitter, the day that Interfax reported that Zlochevsky’s property had been seized –  suggesting the two may have discussed Shokin’s investigations, per Politico.

end

Lindsey Graham Barks Back At Biden Over ‘Obvious Conflict Of Interest’ With Hunter And Burisma

Three days after Joe Biden appeared to threaten Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) for investigating he and his son Hunter’s dealings in Ukraine, Graham has a response:

We are not going to give a pass to what is obviously a conflict of interest,” adding “I believe Hunter Biden’s association on the Burisma board doesn’t pass the smell test.

Lindsey Graham

@LindseyGrahamSC

I love Joe Biden as a person but we are not going to give a pass to what is obviously a conflict of interest.

I believe Hunter Biden’s association on the Burisma board doesn’t pass the smell test.

If a Republican was in the same position, they’d certainly be investigated!

Graham is referring to the fact that a corrupt Ukrainian oligarch hired Hunter Biden to sit on the board of natural gas firm Burisma Holdings while Burisma’s founder – Ukraine’s former Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Mykola Zlochevsky – was under active investigation for giving himself permits to drill for oil and gas, laundering money, and taking approximately $23 million US dollars out of Ukraine.

According to Ukraine’s former prosecutor general, Viktor Shokin, Zlochevsky hired Hunter Biden “in order to protect himself.”

Lo and behold, Shokin claims he was fired “at the request of Mr. Joseph Biden the Vice President of the United States,” while his successor Yuriy Lutsenko said in an interview “he began looking at the same case Mr. Shokin was looking at (mentioned above) and he believes Hunter Biden receives millions of dollars in compensation from Burisma. He produced a document from Latvia that showed several million dollars that were distributed out of Burisma’s account.

So after Lindsey Graham sent a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo requesting all documents and communications related to Joe Biden’s phone calls with Ukraine’s former president Petro Poroshenho which occurred Feb. 11, 18 and 19 as well as March 22, 2016, citing media reports that the two discussed firing the Prosecutor General, Viktor Shokin, Biden flipped out – suggesting that Graham had been ‘gotten to.’

Lindsey is about to go down in a way that I think he’s going to regret his whole life,” Biden told CNN host Don Lemon in a Friday interview in South Carolina.

“I say Lindsey, I just — I’m just embarrassed by what you’re doing, for you. I mean, my Lord.”

They have him under their thumb right now. They know he knows that if he comes out against Trump, he’s got a real tough road for reelection, number one,” Biden continued. “He knows me; he knows my son; he knows there’s nothing to this. Trump is now essentially holding power over him that even the Ukrainians wouldn’t yield to. The Ukrainians would not yield to, quote, ‘investigate Biden’ — there’s nothing to investigate about Biden or his son.

Manu Raju

@mkraju

Biden tells @donlemon he’s “embarrassed by” Graham’s actions after senator asks Pompeo to turn over docs related to Hunter and Ukraine

“Lindsey is about to go down in a way that I think he’s going to regret his whole life,” Biden says, adding Trump is “holding power” over him

Embedded video

END

After a poor showing these past several days, it looks like the Democrats are getting cold feed on impeachment

(zerohedge)

Democrats Getting ‘Cold Feet’ As Impeachment Support Evaporates

After weeks of secret impeachment testimony followed by public testimony from House Democrats’ cherry-picked witnesses, support for impeaching President Trump is sinking.

While witnesses have testified that Trump requested Ukraine investigate former VP Joe Biden for corruption, support for impeachment has decreased significantly, while opposition has increased

According to the FiveThirtyEight average of national polls, support for impeachment has shrunk from 50.3 percent in mid-October to 46.3 percent presently, while opposition has risen from 43.8 percent to 45.6 percent.

Among independents in the FiveThirtyEight average, support for impeachment topped out at 47.7 percent in late October but has sunk to 41 percent over the past three weeks. –The Hill

“After three years, the country was sick of hearing about Russia, and now the average American either doesn’t understand or doesn’t care about the case we’re making on Ukraine,” one Democratic fundraiser told The Hill.

Another poll registering declining support for impeachment is YouGov, which has independent support dropping from 39% weeks ago to 35%, while opposition has grown from 35% to 40%.

Benny

@bennyjohnson

“American public loses enthusiasm for impeachment despite blockbuster hearings”

Emerson Poll:

October:
• Support: 48%
• Oppose: 44%

Nov. 17- Nov 20:
•Support: 43%
• Oppose: 45%https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/23/american-public-loses-enthusiasm-impeachment-despite-blockbuster/ 

American public loses enthusiasm for impeachment despite blockbuster hearings

Democrats hoped it would be the week that Donald Trump was hoist with his own petard.

telegraph.co.uk

Impeachment support began fading during the House hearings, with a POLITICO/Morning Consult Poll from last week revealing a 2% decline in support and a 3% increase in opposition to the inquiry.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Polls have now turned very strongly against Impeachment, especially in swing states. 75% to 25%. Thank you!

And according to the Washington Post‘s Rachael Bade, some moderate Democratic lawmakers are now getting “cold feet.”

RNC Research

@RNCResearch

WaPo’s Bade: some Democrats getting “cold feet” as worries grow about public opposition to impeachmenthttps://youtu.be/OU7f8wHDngc

Embedded video

Schiff, meanwhile, swears it’s not true!

 

Benny

@bennyjohnson

Adam Schiff says that public support for impeachment has grown dramatically in the past two months.

He conveniently left out the polls from this week showing a decrease in support, especially among independents, after finally allowing public testimonies.

Embedded video

Whatever the case, according to Rep. Eric Swalwell, who farted on live TV last week,  “I’m not focused on the polls, I know my colleagues aren’t either… this president used his great vast power to ask a foreign government to help him cheat an election,”

end

Another good one: the state department now releases a detailed account of the Ukraine-Biden corruption uncovered by Rudy Guiliani

(zerohedge)

State Department Releases Detailed Accounts Of Biden-Ukraine Corruption

A liberal watchdog group’s attempt to nail Rudy Giuliani has backfired in spectacular fashion after their FOIA request resulted in the US State Department releasing detailed accusations of corruption against the Bidens – based on interviews with former Ukrainian officials who were in charge of the investigations.

Responding to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit from the group American Oversight, the State Department on Friday night released almost 100 pages of records detailing efforts by Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani to investigate corruption, which include contacts with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) earlier this year.

While American Oversight’s ‘gotcha‘ is that Giuliani had “multiple contacts” with Mike Pompeo and others while investigating Ukraine corruption, they completely ignore interview notes containing detailed allegations by former Ukraine Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin– who Joe Biden had fired, as well as his successor, prosecutor general Yuriy Lutsenko – who “believes Mr. Viktor Shokin the former Prosecutor General is honest.”

Viktor Shokin:

On a January 23, 2019 phone call between Shokin and Giuliani, Igor Fruman, Lev Parnas and George Boyle, Shokin said:

“He was appointed to the position of General Prosecutor of Ukraine from 2015 until April of 2016,when he was removed at the request of Mr. Joseph Biden the Vice President of the United States.”

“He [Shokin] became involved in a case against Mr. Mykola Zlochevsky the former Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of Ukraine. The case was opened as a result of Mr. Zlochevsky giving himself/company permits to drill for gas and oil in Ukraine. Mr. Zlochevsky is also the owner of Burisma Holdings.”

“Mr. Shokin stated that there are documents that list five (5) criminal cases in which Mr. Zlochevesky is listed, with the main case being for issuing illegal gas exploration permits. The following complaints are in the criminal case.

  1. Mr. Zlochevsky was laundering money
  2. Obtained assets by corrupt acts bribery
  3. Mr. Zlochevsky removed approximately twenty three million US dollars out of Ukraine without permission
  4. While seated as the Minister he approved two addition entities to receive permits for gas exploration
  5. Mr. Zlochevsky was the owner of two secret companies that were part of Burisma Holdings and gave those companies permits which made it possible for him to profit while he was the sitting Minister.

“Mr Shokin further stated that there were several Burisma board appointments were made in 2014 as follows:

Devon Archer (left) with Joe and Hunter Biden
  1. Hunter Biden son of Vice President Joseph Biden
  2. Joseph Blade former CIA employee assigned to Anti-Terrorist Unit
  3. Alesksander Kwasnieski former President of Poland
  4. Devon Archer roomate to the Christopher Heinz the step-son of Mr. John Kerry United States Secretary of State

Mr. Shokin stated that these appointments were made by Mr. Slochevsky in order to protect himself.

Shokin then details how in July 2015, “US Ambassador Geoffrey R. Pyatt told him that the investigation has to be handled with white gloves, which according to Mr. Shokin, that implied do nothing. On or about September 2015 Mr. Pyatt gave a speech in Odessa where he stated that the cases were not investigated correctly and that Mr. Shokin may be corrupt.”

“Mr. Shokin further stated that on February of 2016 warrants were placed on the accounts of multiple people in Ukraine. There were requests for information on Hunter Biden to which nothing was received.

“It is believed that Hunter Biden receives a salary, commission plus one million dollars.”

“President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko [who Joe Biden threatened to withhold $1 billion in US loan guarantees] told Mr. Shokin not to investigate Burisma as it was not in the interest of Joe and/or Hunter BidenMr. Shokin was called into Mr. Poroshenko’s office and told that the investigation into Burisma and the Managing Director where Hunter Biden is on the board, has caused Joe Biden to hold up one billion dollars in US aid to Ukraine.

“Mr. Shokin stated that on or around April of 2016 Mr. Petro Poroshenko called him and told him he had to be fired as the aid to the Ukraine was being withheld by Joe Biden. Mr. Biden told Mr. Poroshenko that he had evidence that Mr. Shokin was corrupt and needed to be fired. Mr. Shokin was dismissed in April of 2016 and the US aid was delivered within one and one half months.”

“On a different point Mr. Shokin believes the current Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch denied his visa to travel to the US. Mr. Shokin stated that she is close to Mr. Biden. Mr. Shokin also stated that there were leaks by a person named Reshenko of the Ukrainian State Secret Service about the Manafort Black Book. Mr. Shokin stated that there is possible deceit in the Manafort Black Book.”

Yuriy Lutsenko:

Lutsenko takes Shokin’s interview one step further in a January 25 phone interview with Giuliani and associates – describing how Ukraine has two secretive units which are protected by a US Ambassador.

“Mr. Lutsenko went on to explain that there is a unit called Specialized Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP) which has under its purview National Anticorruption Bureau Ukraine (NABU) which investigates corruption cases that involved public figures from Mayors upward. He stated that the current US Ambassador protects SAP and NABU,” adding “His office has absolutely no control over SAP or NABU and can’t even ask what they are working on however they fall under his “control.”

Of note, NABU was established in October 2014 “by Mr. George Kent who was the Deputy Chief to the Mission in Ukraine.”

US Ambassador George Kent, who established NABU according to Lutsenko

Bidens and Burisma

Lutsenko “went on to say that he began looking at the same case Mr. Shokin was looking at (mentioned above) and he believes Hunter Biden receives millions of dollars in compensation from Burisma. He produced a document from Latvia that showed several million dollars that were distributed out of Burisma’s account. The record showed two (2) companies and four (4) individuals receiving approximately sixteen million dollars in disbursements as follows:

Companies

  1. Wirelogic Technology     $14,665,982
  2. Digitex                         $1,900,000

Individuals:

  1. Alexsander Kwasnewski $1,150,000
  2. Alan Apter                    $302,887
  3. Devon Archer   Amount not revealed by Latvia
  4. Hunter Biden   Amount not revealed by Latvia

“Mr Lutsenko stated that there was also a payment of $900,000 to Rosemont Seneca Partners LLC for consulting fees. Hunter Biden is a partner in Rosemont Seneca Partners LLC along with Devon Archer and the dates of this transaction are approximately anywhere from January to December 2015. According to Mr. Lutsenko the $900,000 invoice was for services rendered for lobbying by Joe Biden.

TRUTH ALERT:

The statement I’ve made several times of having an insurance policy, if thrown under bus, is sarcastic & relates to the files in my safe about the Biden Family’s 4 decade monetizing of his office.

If I disappear, it will appear immediately along with my RICO chart.

— Rudy Giuliani (@RudyGiuliani) November 23, 2019

Read the interviews below (and see the full release here):

end

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

We have highlighted this story to you on several occasions…21 trillion dollars missing.  We believe that these dollars are used to cover up huge holes in derivatives losses at Deutsche bank etc.

(cortesy Greg Hunter/Skidmore)

$21 Trillion in Missing Money Could Trigger Meltdown – Dr. Mark Skidmore

By Greg Hunter On November 24, 2019

About two years ago, Michigan State Economics Professor Mark Skidmore revealed there was $21 trillion in what he calls “missing money” from the Department of Defense (DOD) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD). This was a stunning revelation and the biggest auditing discovery in the history of accounting. Dr. Skidmore, who is an expert in public finance, along with a team of academics, used publicly available government accounting reports and revealed their results in late 2017.   In the accounting world, this is like discovering the “God Particle” or discovering a cure for cancer, and, yet, academia is largely silent and ignoring this discovery by Dr. Skidmore and his team. Dr. Skidmore explains, “It’s been pretty quiet. A few people have contacted me. . . . I have asked for professional opinion and have offered to pay for it, and I had one conversation and he never responded again. . . . Similarly, I have done that with other academics to work on this issue. . . . For example, I had a dean of a major business school in the country who I know, and he has a background in both accounting and economics, and his response was ‘yes, there is something really wrong.’ Then nothing, no response to any other inquiries. . . . I haven’t been shunned–just ignored. . . . Other people just sort of weigh out the costs and benefits of the whole thing. They ask themselves what are the benefits of me chiming in on this issue, and what are the costs? They look at it and say I don’t want to be involved. Some people realize there is much more at stake here, and they just don’t want to be involved. That’s what I think is going on.”

The “missing” $21 trillion is a fact, and, yet, it has not been fully understood by the public. What happens when all Americans realize the size of dollars already printed? Skidmore says, “First of all, I don’t think this would be revealed in an official way until there was an underlying backup plan and financial structure in place. If this was acknowledged by someone on the stature of the President of the United States, which I don’t think is going to happen because risks are too high, we are so messed up, it’s possible we could have a meltdown if we don’t have some sort of plan in place to shore all of this up if there are trillions of dollars floating around that people don’t really recognize. I have to believe that other countries know about this and know what is going on and are aware (of trillions of missing money). . . . I am surprised that the global economy has functioned as well as it has for the past 10 years since the last financial crisis. Debt is keeping everything alive and afloat, but how long can we continue that? ”

In closing, Dr. Skidmore says, “The financial crisis that may come in the near future may not be the worst thing. That may be the best thing so we can reset and get a footing in reality and something that has integrity. I am concerned we won’t turn back and move in the right direction. What does it mean to my children when a government can say we can just create fake books and pretend they are real? This sure looks like a giant fraud to me. . . . These unsupported adjustments are a sign of fraud. Why don’t we look?”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Michigan State Professor Dr. Mark Skidmore, who discovered $21 trillion in ‘missing’ federal money.

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

 

One comment

  1. Glenn C Taxacher · · Reply

    Mr. Organ hello I am very interested in your topic on Comex and the Criminal suppression activity. Two questions for now – 1 When you say ” a huge number will be standing for delivery in Dec” can you supply a reliable source where you can see this information? 2 – Can you explain the naked shorting used to suppress silver? Wouldn’t there have to be an imbalance of contracts I have always wondered how that works when the Commercials (short) = the small and large Specs (longs)?
    Thank you sir for what you do
    -Glenn

    Like

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