NOV 26//GOLD UP $3.10 TO $1460.25//SILVER UP 14 CENTS TO $17.05//WITH TWO MORE DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE; A MONSTROUS 171,000 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STILL STANDING IN GOLD: SOMEBODY IS TAKING ON THE COMEX//TRADE DEFICIT FOR THE USA N

GOLD:$1460.25 UP $3.10    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

SILVER  $17.05 UP 14 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :  

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1462.50

 

silver:  $17.10

 

We now enter options expiry for the November contract month.

The Comex options expired yesterday:  Monday Nov 25/2019

London’s /LBMA and OTC Nov 29.2019

TWO more reading days before first day notice

 

gold/silver prices will be subdued until the conclusion of the week.

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/12

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 12 NOTICE(S) FOR 1200 OZ (0.0373 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1729 NOTICES FOR 172,900 OZ  (5.3779 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR NOV

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 532 for 2,660,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7166 UP 61 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7103 DOWN 5

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI  FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 10,723 CONTRACTS FROM 223,779 DOWN TO 213,056 WITH THE 12 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A LARGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR NOV 0,; DEC  1113 AND; MARCH; 437; AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1550 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1550 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1550 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.75 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 12 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ  STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ  STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.65     MILLION OZ  STANDING IN OCT

2,630    MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOV.

MONDAY, THE CROOKS ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER  RAID ON SILVER AND GOLD AS OPTIONS ON THE COMEX EXPIRED  YESTERDAY NIGHT… THEY AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR  SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE ( IT WAS DOWN 12 CENTS ). ALSO OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE   SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG 9137 CONTRACTS. OR 62.09 MILLION OZ…..HOWEVER BECAUSE DECEMBER IS ALSO AN ACTIVE MONTH I AM SURE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADING AS WELL.  WE WILL KNOW FOR SURE ON FRIDAY WHEN WE SEE THE COT REPORT

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV:

37,720 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 37,720 CONTRACTS) OR 188.60 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2095 CONTRACTS OR 10.47 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  188.60 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 26.94% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1780.44   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 10,230, WITH THE 12 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1550 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A HUGE SIZED: 9173 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1550 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 10,230  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF   DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A SMALL 12 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.91 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!!  MOST LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADING LIQUIDATION!

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.065 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 152% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 30,493 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING AWAY FROM THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 661,972.   THE MAJORITY OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS 

THE LOSS IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED WITH A CONSIDERABLE $6.45 PRICING LOSS ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// YESTERDAY// /

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 10,230 CONTRACTS:

NOV 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  9858 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 661,972,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 19,963 CONTRACTS: 30,493 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 10,230 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 19,963 CONTRACTS OR 1,996,300 OZ OR 62.09 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $6.45 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE STILL  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC LOSS IN GOLD TONNAGE ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 62.09  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS AGAIN INITIATED. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $6.45) .THEY WERE DEFINITELY SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA.  I WOULD GUESS THAT THE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE  LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS.. 

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

DUE TO THE FACT THAT DECEMBER IS AN ACTIVE MONTH SPREADING ACTIVITY IN SILVER WAS ALSO ORCHESTRATED BY OUR CROOKED OFFICIAL/BANKER SECTOR ALONG WITH GOLD..

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 160,192 CONTRACTS OR 16,019,200 oz OR 498.26 TONNES (18 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8889 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 498.26 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 498.26/3550 x 100% TONNES =14.03% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5178,42  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

 

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

a big changes in gold inventory at the GLD: a huge paper deposit of 4.69 tonnes

NOV 26/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 896.48 tonnes

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 10,230 CONTRACTS from 223,779 DOWN TO 213,056 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR NOV. 0; FOR DEC  1113: MARCH; 437  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1550 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 10,723  CONTRACTS TO THE 1550 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED LOSS OF 9173 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:45.87 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//NOV 2,630 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1550 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.89 POINTS OR 0.03%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 79.12 POINTS OR 0.29%   /The Nikkei closed UP 79.12 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .79%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0402 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0402 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0378 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China recognizes the downward pressure on the economy and for that reason it is warning that might not be able to resist the downward pressures

(zerohedge)

ii)This will be a deterrent to the trade deal:  China’s top diplomat strongly condemns the USA bill on Hong Kong Human rights.

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)RUSSIA

Interesting: Tom Luongo states that maybe it is time to invest in Russia

(Tom Luongo)

ii)TURKEY

TURKEY is running out of dollars similar to what is happening in Lebanon and Iran.  Now Erdogan warns his citizens to dump dollars and buy Turkish lira. It will not work

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)A good history lesson for us:  700 years of interest rates throughout the globe

(zerohedge)

ii)GLOBAL WARMING?

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)As lower prices on homes are the norm, we witness a huge increase in new home slaes

(zerohedge)

ii)USA consumer confidence tumbles again for the 4th straight month

(zerohedge)

iii)although the trade deficit fell by 5.7% in October we still have a huge deficit for the year.  However if we take a closer look, it was imports falling more than exports and this a sign of a poorer economy

(courtesy Market Watch)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)This is heartbreaking: 75% of all millennials may never be able to afford owning ahouse

(zerohedge)

ii)The real story behind Ukraine//Part 3

(courtesy David Stockman)

iii)wow!! this now becomes a criminal investigation against many opioid makers including J and J, and distributors like McKesson

(zerohedge)
iv)This is deadly to an economy: Spending by the wealthy is slowing down(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)Ron Paul correctly reveals the real bombshell of the impeachment hearings: we must never interfere with interventionist foreign policy

(courtesy Ron Paul)

ii)We will know for sure on Dec 9 but it sure looks like we have a situation whereby all evidence collected after the first FISA warrant is tainted and thus it is :fruit obtained from a poisonous tree” and as such any further evidence collected will be thrown out.  They will most likely throw out the conviction of Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos ..maybe Manafort as well.

(Sara Carter)

ii b)These must be declassified to get to the bottom of the UkraineGate

John Solomon)

iii)This is good: Bloomberg journalists are demanding management reverse the ban on investigating their boss and democratic rivals

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 30,493 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 661,972 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $6.45 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,230 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR NOV; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 9858 ; FEB: 372  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  10,230 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 19,963 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,230 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 30,493 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE WITH THE CONSIDERABLE RAID INITIATED, AS IT FELL BY $6.45. AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS. HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADING LIQUIDATION.  

 

 

 

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  19,963 CONTRACTS OR 1,996,300 OZ OR 62.09 TONNES.

We are now in the  NON active contract month of NOV.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Today we have 12 contracts still standing for a LOSS of 9 contracts. Yesterday we had 7 notices served upon so we have a loss of 2 contracts or an additional 200 oz will not stand as these guys could not find any metal over here as they morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next active delivery month after NOV is the  active contract month of DECEMBER. Here we had a loss of 39,923 contracts( with a considerable loss due to the liquidation of spreaders) down to 170,922.   The next non active contract month of January saw its OI RISE by 261 contracts UP to 828.

The December contract month is still highly elevated and we should have a humdinger of a DECEMBER delivery month. WE HAVE 2 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE: NOV 29.2019.

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY:  (AND REMEMBER THAT SPREADING LIQUIDATION WAS ALREADY IN FULL FORCE LAST YEAR)

WITH 2 READING DAYS TO GO:  NOV 2018:  99,707 OI CONTRACTS STILL STANDING

AND TODAY:  170,922 CONTRACTS STANDING.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE LAST YR: 27.57 TONNES OF GOLD INITIALLY STOOD

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 12 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  1200 OZ. (0.0373 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 10,230 CONTRACTS FROM 223,779 DOWN TO 213,056 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S ATMOSPHERIC  OI COMEX FALL OCCURRED WITH A 12 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.  HERE WE HAVE 0 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER NOVEMBER WE HAVE THE  ACTIVE MONTH OF DECEMBER and here he has a loss of 14,504 contracts down to 34,496.  After December we have the non active month of January and here we see that we gained 63 contracts up to 718.

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY:

WITH 2 DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE:

NOV 2018 :  36,242 OI CONTRACTS STILL STANDING

NOV 2019:   34,496 OI CONTRACTS STILL STANDING

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE LAST YR: 17.53 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

PLEASE NOTE THE HUGE DIFFERENCE IN GOLD AND SILVER WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT STANDING. SOME BIG WHALE IS TAKING ON THE GOLD/COMEX. 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil, OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 635,796  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  438,197  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

FINAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 26/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 9462.165 oz

 

Bank of Nova Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
12 notice(s)
 1200 OZ
(0.0373 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(000 oz)
0.000 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1729 notices
172900 OZ
5.3779 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account and this is a phony entry

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

ii) Into Bank of Nova Scotia: 9462.165

 

 

total gold deposits: 9462.165   oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

total withdrawals:  nil oz

 

We had 5 adjustment

i) Out of Delaware:

16,033.225 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of Delaware and this landed into the customer account :  and a deemed settlement

ii) Out of Int. Delaware:  143,035.35 oz was adjusted out of Dealer Int. Delaware and this landed into  the customer account of Int. Del.

iii) Out of Morgan:  503.01 out of the dealer account and into the customer account and this obliterates its pledged gold from yesterday.

iv)Out of Scotia: 53,427.066 oz was adjusted out of the dealer Scotia and this landed into the customer account of Scotia.

 

total  212,998.64 oz or 6.625 tonnes

 

v) 86,540.583 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of HSBC and this lands into the dealer account of HSBC 

 

 

 

 

decrease of pledged gold: 503.01 JPM

 

FOR THE NOV 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 12 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1729) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV (12 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (12 x 100 oz per contract) equals 172,900 OZ OR 5.3779 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of NOV

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1729 x 100 oz)  + (21)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today 12 x (100 oz )which equals 172,900 oz standing OR 5.3779 TONNES in this  active delivery month of NOV

We LOST 2 contracts OR 200 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL NOT STAND AS THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS NO PHYSICAL GOLD COULD BE FIND ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THEY ALSO  ACCEPTED A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR HARD WORK.

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 27.38 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 4 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..     OCT…..   37.99 TONNES

AND NOW NOV……                                                                5.3779 tonnes

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT, IN SEPT, 3 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.60155 TONNES. IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST FEW MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 4.4614 TONNES SETTLED (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 6.625 TONNES)

IF WE ADD THE FOUR DELIVERY MONTHS: 75.9734

TONNES- 11.0864 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 64.887 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 27.38 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  991,987.952 oz or  30.854 tonnes 
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 75.443 oz (23.466 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989) 
total registered pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,506,687.284 oz 264.59 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.
DECREASE IN GOLD OZ PLEDGED:  503.01 OZ ATTRIBUTED TO  JPMORGAN

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 103 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.

FINAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
NOV  26 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 599,600.883 oz
CNT

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,102.43 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  532 contracts

2,660,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil

 

ii) Into CNT; 600,102.43  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.10% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/315.22 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  600,102.43   oz

 

we have 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:

 

i) out of CNT:  599,600.883 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 599,600.83  oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  76.983 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.404 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 532 x 5,000 oz = 2,660,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (0) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2019 contract month: 532 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (0)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals 2,630,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month. 

WE GAINED 0 contracts or an additional 30,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  133,567 CONTRACTS //volume increases due to raid

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 110,169 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 110,169 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 550 million  OZ 78.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.68% ((NOV 26/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.84% to NAV (NOV 26/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.68%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.60 TRADING 14.06///DISCOUNT  3.73

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

 

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NOV 26/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 896.48 tonnes

*IN LAST 712 TRADING DAYS: 39.89 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 612 TRADING DAYS: A NET 127.16 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

 

 

NOV 26:  SLV INVENTORY

374.732 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.01/ and libor 6 month duration 1.91

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .10

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.93%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.94

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Max Keiser also notes the NY Fed’s denial of where the repo cash is going

(Max Keiser/GATA)

Keiser Report notes NY Fed’s denial to GATA of repo cash details

 Section: 

12:43p ET Monday, November 25, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Saturday’s edition of the Keiser Report on Russia Today began with discussion of GATA’s recent freedom-of-information request to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in pursuit of details about the recipients and amounts of the “repo” cash being distributed by the bank. The New York Fed told GATA that it would not release the information for two years:

http://www.gata.org/node/19583

Co-hosts Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert agree that the New York Fed’s statement to GATA signifies the obliteration of transparency in the Federal Reserve System, which was supposed to have been increased by the very law the New York Fed cites as authorizing its stonewalling, the Dodd-Frank law.

The program can be viewed at RT here:

https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/474101-repo-markets-banks-bailout…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Well said

Hi Bill/Harvey,
I review the Comex inventory  reports every day . Yesterday pledged gold (only 503 troy ounces) appeared in the JP Morgan inventory account. Earlier in the month 100 troy ounces of pledged gold initially appeared in the HSBC inventory account. but a few days later ,on 11th November, this ballooned to 7.4 tonnes.If you study these inventory accounts closely (forensically) you will observe that these amounts of pledged gold are NOT incorporated into the total COMEX inventory figures for HSBC or JP Morgan and are consequently excluded from the overall COMEX totals at the foot of the report.If one superficially reviews these Comex inventory reports, the natural assumption would be that the totals include all entries , but this is not the case.(obviously this pledged gold is not physically in NY, if it exists at all).
HSBC ,as of this morning, holds virtually 60% of the total Comex inventory of 34.8 tonnes of registered gold and 69% of the total Comex inventory of 229.8 tonnes of eligible gold.Additionally HSBC is the custodian of 892 tonnes of gold deemed to be held by GLD. If GLD’s liabilities increase by 100 tonnes in a week, the absurd assumption is made that the GLD vaults naturally have commensurately increased.Yesterday Jim Willie postulated that up to 600 tonnes of HSBC physical vault gold is ‘missing in action’.GATA tends to  concentrate on the criminal activities of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.Why does the CME now insist that HSBC disclose this relatively minuscule amount of pledged gold? Whilst the CME disclaims the integrity of all COMEX inventory reports,perhaps the fact that the HSBC and GLD vaults are possibly ’empty’ causes these relatively meaningless disclosures of pledged gold.We must also keep an eye on JP Morgan’s disclosure of pledged gold. 503 troy ounces is totally meaningless but maybe this figure will also balloon in the coming days, probably on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving when nobody is watching.’,perhaps the fact that the HSBC and GLD vaults are possibly ’empty’ ,
Regards
Nicholas
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0402/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0378   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 0.89 POINTS OR 0.03%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 79.12 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 80.51 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.31/Euro FALLS TO 1.1017

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.09/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.95/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.15 and Brent: 63.78

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.36%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.17% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.53: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.37

3k Gold at $1456.80 silver at: 16.91   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 6/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.00

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.95 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9972 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0986 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.36%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.75% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.18%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7408..

Futures Fade After Algos Sell Latest Burst Of “Trade Deal Optimism”

Is the oldest trick in the Trump market manipulation book finally coming to an end?

12 hours after futures spiked by 10 points to a a new record high, after algos reacted as if stung to the following China headline:

  • CHINA, U.S. HELD CALL TODAY; AGREED TO CONTINUE PHASE-1 TALKS

… and which said that China’s Vice Premier Liu He, Robert Lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin held a phone call in which they “reached consensus on properly resolving relevant issues” and agreed to stay in contact on the remaining points for a “phase one” trade deal during a phone, yet which if one thinks about it said absolutely nothing new – the US and China agreed to continue talks to reach a deal which Trump already announced back on October 11? – futures have faded the entire move higher and as in danger of rolling over as it suddenly appears that algos are no longer responding to the daily injections of artificial “trade deal optimism.”

China’s Global Times tweeted later that topics in the call may have included tariff removal, agricultural purchase and a possible face-to-face meeting citing experts close to trade talks. Furthermore, Global Times later reiterated that China and the US have basically reached broad consensus on a phase one trade deal including the removal of tariffs, although some differences remain over how much tariffs should be rolled back citing experts close to the talks. Yet if that is the case why did the two sides agree to continue the talks, and is this just a charade to keep stocks high, Trump happy, and China free to intervene in HK without angering the US president?

“We take any positive pronouncements on a trade deal with healthy skepticism given how long this has dragged out,” Rabobank strategists wrote in a note Tuesday. “It would seem that any major progress on the trade deal front will be hindered by the ongoing unrest in Hong Kong.” Perhaps this skepticism is starting to rub off on the algos too?

The following “flow” chart shows the most notable moments and comments in the past year of the US-China trade war, whose end continues to remain “just around the corner”:

And with Monday’s attempt to stimulate optimism crashing and burning, S&P futures slid from all time highs and world stocks edged off their highest in almost two years on Tuesday, even after a strong Hong Kong debut for Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, which sent the stock price higher by 6.6%.

Overnight, the MSCI World index touched its highest level in almost two years, before drifting lower as the European session wore on. Still, it remained less than 1% off record highs hit in early 2018.

European stocks, with the exception of London’s FTSE were broadly lower  with gains in food and beverage firms offsetting declines in travel stocks. That said, the European Stoxx 600 index, remained within striking distance of four-year highs.

“The outlook is positive as world trade angst is the biggest negative out there, especially when you throw in loose policy, the pick-up yields for equities versus bonds and the like,” said Raymond James strategist Chris Bailey, adding that “the residual issues are clear: The first is a reversal in world trade optimism, the second is that valuations become perceived as overstretched – this can easily happen given lackluster corporate earnings growth.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged up for a third day of gains, led by health-care firms, following the initial, much more positive response to China’s statement that Beijing and Washington are working toward an initial trade deal. Markets in the region were mixed, with Australia leading gains and the Philippines retreating. Japan’s Topix climbed 0.2%, buoyed by electronics makers. The Shanghai Composite Index closed little changed, as China Merchants Bank declined and China Life Insurance climbed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.3%, reversing earlier gains, as the city’s top official refused to make any new concessions to protesters. India’s Sensex fluctuated after Monday’s record close, with ICICI Bank advancing and Bharti Airtel dropping

Alibaba shares opened 6.6% higher in Hong Kong than their issue price and at a small premium to pricing in New York. The listing has been seen as a vote of confidence in Hong Kong after months of anti-government protests that have rocked the financial hub.

A flurry of M&A activity also supported sentiment in equity markets, with France’s LVMH agreeing to buy U.S. jeweler Tiffany for $16.2 billion and Charles Schwab set to purchase TD Ameritrade in a deal valued at $26 billion.

Still, as Reuters and Bloomberg note, it is the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks that remained the key driver for world markets. Hopes that a partial trade deal is just around the corner have helped sustain a rally in global stocks for a third month, alongside a flurry of stock buybacks and buyouts, yet while China’s Ministry of Commerce pointed to trade progress in a statement, Hong Kong remains a source of tension, with Beijing summoning America’s ambassador to express its opposition to U.S. interference.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index stayed positive, although the pace of its advance cooled with traders fatigued over U.S.-China trade talks. The Aussie failed to hold gains which it made after RBA Governor Lowe said the point when QE will be needed is unlikely to be reached. The yen fell early on to a two-week low, only to reverse losses, while the pound slipped as polls showed a narrowing lead for the ruling Conservative Party. The euro was also a touch firmer at $1.10150.  China’s yuan – the currency most sensitive to the trade war – had risen to a one-week high of 7.0181 against the dollar, but was last trading at 7.0388.

“China and the U.S. agreed on a framework to resolve their phase one issue, which is just a way of saying that they did admin work,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.

In rates, German bund yields nudged back down, also reflecting the more cautious tone among investors. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was last down 2 basis points on the day at around 1.75%.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin dipped to $7,065, although it earlier rebounded after a tenth day of declines, which would be its longest losing streak on record. The crypto was holding above six-month lows hit on Monday after the People’s Bank of China launched a fresh crackdown on cryptocurrencies.

In commodities, the crude complex was broadly higher but remains choppy, as Tuesday morning trade remains bound within tight USD 57.85/bbl to USD 58.30/bbl and USD 63.50/bbl to USD 63.90/bbl parameters respectively for front month WTI and Brent contracts. There has been little by way of fresh crude specific fundamental drivers, however, looking ahead, forecasts for today’s API Inventory data predict a 939mln bbl draw. OPEC’s Economic Commission Board is set to meet on Wednesday and Thursday and will then likely make a recommendation on what OPEC should do regarding of production cuts over the course of 2020. While the board can make a recommendation, there is no certainty that OPEC ministers will follow this advice as they ultimately make the decision.

Looking at the metals; gold is a touch firmer, moving north of USD 1464/bbl.  In terms of physical demand for the precious metal; ING point to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which shows that non-monetary gold imports declined by 43% M/M to a three year low of 34.9 tonnes in October, leaving YTD gold imports down 41% Y/Y. Stronger gold prices, a weaker currency and slowing growth have weighed on retail gold demand in the country, suggests the bank, citing similar reasons for the physical demand slowdown in India. Meanwhile, copper is more rangebound, as the red metal pulls back after making two-week highs yesterday.

Looking at the day ahead, we have a raft of data releases from the US today, including the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence reading, October’s new home sales, the Richmond Fed’s November manufacturing index, the preliminary October reading for wholesale inventories, along with the September FHFA house price index. Analog Devices, Best Buy, Autodesk, Dell Technologies, HP and VMware are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,132.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 407.42
  • MXAP up 0.1% to 165.09
  • MXAPJ unchanged at 527.44
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 23,373.32
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,705.71
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 26,913.92
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.03% to 2,907.06
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 40,823.37
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,787.53
  • Kospi down 0.1% to 2,121.35
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to -0.36%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1018
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.818%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to 0.392%
  • Brent futures down 0.1% to $63.62/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,457.76
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.30

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China and the U.S. “reached consensus on properly resolving relevant issues” and agreed to stay in contact on the remaining points for a “phase one” trade deal during a phone call Tuesday morning Beijing time, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struck an upbeat tone in gauging the ability of policy makers to extend the record U.S. economic expansion, while signaling interest rates would probably remain on hold
  • The Australian central bank’s No. 2 Guy Debelle says in text of speech in Canberra Tuesday that uncertainty over how far record labor market participation has to run clouds the outlook for unemployment
  • For the third straight autumn, China is selling dollar bonds, with a potential $6 billion total offering of three-year, five-year, 10-year and 20- year securities, according to people familiar with the plans. The Ministry of Finance said in its 2017 resumption of dollar- debt sales it would help build a benchmark yield curve for Chinese issuers, which range from developers to local authorities
  • China saw higher premiums than in 2018 in initial marketing for its latest sale of dollar bonds, the biggest offering yet and the third in three years.
  • Japan needs to maintain the market’s faith in government’s commitment to erasing the budget deficit and paying down debt, Finance Minister Taro Aso says
  • Former White House Counsel Donald McGahn was ordered by a judge to appear before a congressional committee probing possible obstruction of justice by Donald Trump — a ruling that could deepen the president’s political peril amid an impeachment inquiry launched by House Democrats
  • Australian central bank chief Philip Lowe laid out his cards for unconventional policy: A government bond-buying program is an option at a 0.25% cash rate, but the threshold for such stimulus hasn’t been reached and is unlikely to be in the near term.

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher after taking impetus from the fresh record levels on Wall Street where sentiment was underpinned by the US-China trade optimism and a relatively busy day of takeover activity. ASX 200 (+0.8%) was positive in which the energy sector led the broad advances across Australia’s sectors as Caltex registered double-digit percentage gains on reports it received an offer from Couche-Tard and with Westpac finding some relief from the AUSTRAC-related losses after its CEO stepped down and Chairman announced an early retirement, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was lifted by a weaker currency and with M&A also in focus as Hitachi Chemicals surged on a potential takeover by Showa Denko. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) opened positively on the recent trade optimism although the gains were later trimmed after another substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC and as Alibaba’s debut threatened to shun the regional darlings, while a brief spike in risk appetite attributed to algos reacting to news US and China trade negotiators held a phone call and reached a consensus on solving issues, later faded given the actual lack of fresh solid developments. Finally, 10yr JGBs were pressured in early trade by the lack of safe-haven demand and with participants sidelined heading into the 40yr auction, which eventually showed firmer demand and spurred a rebound in prices

Top Asian News

  • RBA Says QE Is Option at 0.25%, Doesn’t Expect to Need It
  • China Faces Biggest State Firm Offshore Debt Failure in 20 Years
  • China Sees Higher Cost for Dollar Bonds in Initial Pricing
  • Westpac CEO Hartzer Resigns Amid Money-Laundering Scandal
  • Hong Kong Exports Extend Fall to 12 Months, Imports Drop Again

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%) are modestly softer as recent upwards momentum seen in global equities subsides amidst a lack of fresh fundamental drivers. Another bout of seemingly positive US/China news-flow overnight, in which the two sides reportedly held a phone call where they reached a “consensus on solving issues” and “agreed to keep in contact”, largely failed to lift sentiment; Lloyds argue that negotiators will now need to “walk the talk”, i.e. show real evidence of progress, if further market risk appetite is to be stoked. It is also worth noting that a number of banks’ month end rebalancing models forecast flows out of equities and into bonds – another factor potentially behind this morning’s moves. Sectors are mostly in the red, bar Tech (+0.3.), Materials (Unch), Healthcare (+0.1%) and Consumer Staples (+0.3%). In terms of equity specific movers; Faurecia (+1.0%) had a strong start to the session on the news that it targets FY revenue above EUR 20.5bln and had confirmed its FY targets, although the stock eventually gave back the majority of its gains. Valeo (-0.3%) opened higher in sympathy, before gains were also eroded. Similarly, Peugeot (-0.4%) and Fiat Chrysler (-0.1%) also struggled to hold on to early gains, which were spurred by the news that both Cos had told employees via internal communication that they would sign a binding merger agreement in the coming weeks. Enel (-0.5%) is lower despite decent earnings in which it raised its FY20 EBITDA guidance and increased its dividend. Elsewhere, Compass Group (-5.2%) sunk after earnings underwhelmed, while EasyJet (Unch.) managed to fight off early losses sustained after the Co. was downgraded to hold from buy at Berenberg.

Top European News

  • France Says 13 Soldiers Killed in Helicopter Accident in Mali
  • Berlin’s Biggest Landlord Says Rent Fix Sparks Investor Backlash
  • An Old Boys’ Club in Shipping Lost Its Top-Ranking Woman
  • EU’s Green Energy Laggard Readies Record Wind Power Auction

In FX, sterling has lost its recent impetus in light of fresh polls depicting a narrowing Tory lead over labour, with the latest Kantar poll showing an 11-point gap vs. 18 last week, whilst the overnight ICM polls indicated a narrowing to 7 points from 10 in the previous week. That said, it’s worth caveating that Labour’s handling of its anti-Semitism crisis has garnered some focus with Chief Rabbi Mirvus suggesting that Labour Leader Corbyn is not fit for office. Cable dipped back below the 1.2900 mark (having flatlined around the figure throughout APAC hours) and continues to drift lower to session lows having traded within a 1.2852-2907 intraday band thus far. Meanwhile, the Single Currency remains little changed and within a tight range of 1.008-19 with no pertinent comments from ECB speakers so far and with touted support at 1.1004 ahead of the round figure.

  • AUD, NZD – The Aussie took top spot among the G10 gainers as RBA Governor Lowe pushed back on QE and unconventional measures until Australia sees a bleaker economic picture. The Governor stated that QE will only be needed in the case of two more 25bps rate cuts, (i.e. the Cash Rate at 0.25%) and reaffirmed that negative rates in Aussie are extremely unlikely. All-in-all a hawkish outlook on monetary policy against the backdrop of recent economic data, and especially given the Central Bank’s rhetoric earlier in the year that unconventional tools are prepared to be rolled out if warranted – which also prompted most house views to converge towards QE at some point next year. Unsurprisingly, AUD/USD derived support from the Governor but the pair stopped short of the 0.6800 level to the upside vs. a low of 0.6770, albeit the pair has given up the gains as the Dollar climbs off lows. Meanwhile, the Kiwi remains supported by overnight NZ retail sales data but now trades relatively flat and still retains its 0.64+ status having earlier dipped to proximity of the round figure.
  • DXY, JPY – Minimal action in the DXY thus far as the Index continues its APAC sideways trade around 98.30 having printed a tight intraday range of 98.26-35. Overnight, Fed Chair Powell failed to provide much by way of new substance, whilst the latest in the US-Sino trade saga did little to inspire the Buck. Looking at the state-side calendar, Adv. Goods trade balance and Richmond Fed may attract some attention on a quiet day ahead of Fed-voter Brainard’s speech on monetary policy and tools. Similarly, the Japanese Yen has been stuck within a relatively narrow band at 108.90-109.20. The pair knee-jerked to session high overnight, potentially on algo-related action on trade headlines regarding a call between Chinese and US trade negotiators, albeit the move was short lived as it provided little substance. USD/JPY meanders around its 200 DMA at 108.93 with around USD 500mln of options expiring around 108.90-109.0 and USD 2.3bln at 109.50.
  • EM – Modest downside bias in the Turkish Lira amid jitters that its S-400 radar tests could provoke US lawmakers and result in sanctions. Further, reports stated that Russia and Turkey are mulling signing the second regiment contract for the Russian-made defence system. Turkey’s President more-or-less shrugged questions about resolving the dispute with US whilst reaffirming his pledge that interest rates will fall to single digits from the current 14%, albeit a timeframe was not mentioned. USD/TRY remains on the offensive having breached 5.7500 to the upside after multiple attempts and briefly surpassed its 50 DMA at 5.7509 (vs. low of 5.7355). Elsewhere, the Rand continues to be weighed on by the recent downbeat outlook from the IMF coupled with S&P’s outlook downward outlook revision. USD/ZAR found a base at 14.7500 and topped its 100 DMA at 14.7940 to print a current high of around 14.8500.

In commodities, the crude complex is broadly higher but remains choppy, as Tuesday morning trade remains bound within tight USD 57.85/bbl to USD 58.30/bbl and USD 63.50/bbl to USD 63.90/bbl parameters respectively for front month WTI and Brent contracts. There has been little by way of fresh crude specific fundamental drivers, however, looking ahead, forecasts for tonight’s API Inventory data predict a 939mln bbl draw. ING highlight that the last stock drawdowns were seen in mid-October – some desks have suggested that some of the upside seen this morning could be the market “front-running” tonight inventory report. Looking to the rest of the week; OPEC’s Economic Commission Board is set to meet on Wednesday and Thursday and will then likely make a recommendation on what OPEC should do regarding of production cuts over the course of 2020. While the board can make a recommendation, there is no certainty that OPEC ministers will follow this advice as they ultimately make the decision. Looking at the metals; gold is a touch firmer, moving north of USD 1464/bbl. In terms of physical demand for the precious metal; ING point to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which shows that non-monetary gold imports declined by 43% M/M to a three year low of 34.9 tonnes in October, leaving YTD gold imports down 41% Y/Y. Stronger gold prices, a weaker currency and slowing growth have weighed on retail gold demand in the country, suggests the bank, citing similar reasons for the physical demand slowdown in India. Meanwhile, copper is more rangebound, as the red metal pulls back after making two-week highs yesterday.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $71.0b deficit, prior $70.4b deficit
  • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.15%, prior -0.4%; Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%, revised 0.2%
  • 9am: House Price Purchase Index QoQ, prior 1.0%; FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.3%, prior -0.16%; S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 2.01%, prior 2.03%
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 5, prior 8
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 705,000, prior 701,000; MoM, est. 0.57%, prior -0.7%
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 127, prior 125.9; Present Situation, prior 172.3; Expectations, prior 94.9

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ll be on Bloomberg TV at 10am GMT this morning so tune in if you want to watch me try to say something interesting whilst remembering that anything too controversial will be on film for eternity. Going on TV is one of the few times I have sympathies for the life of politicians. Thankfully Bloomberg are less inclined to tie knots around you than a political journalist would. To think that as a teenager I wanted to be a politician and was a member of a political party. Anyway it’s likely that Powell‘s remarks overnight will be discussed. He spoke at midnight London time and broadly repeated his recent rhetoric, saying that policy is currently appropriate provided the economy evolves as he expects. He repeated his new phrase that the outlook would have to change “materially” for him to want to change policy. Our economists think the labour market will be the key metric for gauging such a material reassessment, making next week’s jobs report even more important.

Before this, the S&P 500 (+0.75%) and the NASDAQ (+1.32%) climbed to record highs yesterday as trade-related optimism and “Merger Monday” boosted equity markets. Trade-sensitive indices outperformed, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up +2.43%, while in Europe the STOXX Automobiles and Parts index rose +0.85%.

The initial catalyst for the rise seemed to be the weekend news we reported yesterday that China would increase the penalties on violations of intellectual property rights. We also had headlines yesterday from the Global Times in China which cited experts close to the talks as saying that the US and China had reached a broad consensus over a Phase One trade deal. However, it also said that differences remained between the two sides over rolling back tariffs. USDCNH was unchanged in response to that report which indicated that markets didn’t really see much new info attached. In terms of M&A, eBay (+2.08%) announced it will sell its ticket exchange website Stubhub for $4.05 billion in cash to Viagogo, a European competitor. Elsewhere, LVMH (+2.02%), the European luxury brand conglomerate, will pay $16 billion for iconic US jewelry-maker Tiffany and Co. (+6.20%). Meanwhile, Charles Schwab formally agreed to buy its rival TD Ameritrade, as reported last week. Its shares gained +2.30% (+10.19% since the deal was reported), while TD Ameritrade gained +7.58% (+25.13% since first reports).

Overnight we’ve seen similar trade headlines to those that have been around over the past few days with the Chinese government saying in a statement that China and the US “reached consensus on properly resolving relevant issues” and agreed to stay in contact on the remaining points for a “phase one” trade deal during a phone call this morning. The call was held between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Meanwhile, the Global Times reported, citing unidentified expert close to the trade talks, that officials on the call today may have discussed tariff removal, agricultural purchases and a review mechanism for the implementation of a potential agreement. They also suggested disagreement on how much tariffs should be cut. So it seems the same stories are rotating round on trade at the moment.

Nevertheless, the headlines sent Asian stocks higher with the Nikkei (+0.51%), CSI 300 (+0.17%) and Kospi (+0.68%) all up. The onshore Chinese yuan (+0.10%) also gained on the news. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng is trading down -0.07% after the city’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam shied away from making any new concessions to protesters in her first comments since pro-democracy forces’ thumping victory in the weekend local elections. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.10%.

There was a similar overall bullish market reaction in Europe yesterday, where the STOXX 600 advanced +1.02% to its highest level since May 2015. Bourses were up across the continent, with the DAX (+0.63%), the CAC 40 (+0.54%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.95%) all ending the day higher. Gold fell back somewhat, down -0.48% as it fell close to three-month lows.

It was a more mixed session for fixed income, but an interesting stat was that yesterday saw the 2s10s curve flatten for a 9th consecutive session, down -1.6bps to 13.8bps, its flattest level since October 14th, just after President Trump proclaimed a “phase one” deal at the White House alongside China Vice Premier Liu He. Given the Fed has helped anchor the front end since the FOMC, the curve shape is now much more exposed to the long-end. For yesterday, 10yr Treasuries yields fell -1.6bps to 1.755%, but in Europe, 10yr bunds ended the session +1.0bps. Peripheral bonds rallied as well, with Italian 10yr yields falling by -1.8bps to 1.163, their lowest level in nearly three weeks.

In addition to Powell’s comments last night, we heard from a number of ECB speakers yesterday. Notably, Austrian central bank governor Holzmann said that the ECB’s strategy would be “under revision from the beginning of January.” This signposts the “strategic review” that President Lagarde mentioned in her speech on Friday, where she said it was “due to begin in the near future”. ECB Chief Economist Lane said, unsurprisingly, that the ECB is going to be in the bond market for a long time. More interestingly, he said that all of the ECB’s instruments can be adjusted if the outlook worsens. This is consistent with the ECB’s existing policy, but it is a divergence from President Lagarde’s comments last week, where she conspicuously did not include a comment about “all instruments.” Time will tell if this is was just an inadvertent rhetorical detail, or a true policy tension to iron out. Expect a lot of second guessing of Lagarde as the market gets used to her communication nuances.

Sterling was the strongest performing G10 currency yesterday, up +0.52% against the dollar, as investors continued to take heart from further strong opinion polls for the Conservatives over the weekend. However, it took a jolt later on in the session after the poll we discussed at the top out from ICM had the Conservatives on 41%, just 7pts ahead of Labour on 34%. Of course we shouldn’t read too much into one poll, but this is the narrowest lead we’ve seen for the Tories in a couple of weeks. There was some discussion on Twitter that the Labour saw a surge in votes in the 55-65 year old category in this poll. This could be due to an extraordinary promise over the weekend to pay £58bn compensation to women pensioners (of this age) who missed out as retirement ages were changed several years ago. However as we said we shouldn’t read too much into one poll.

Staying with European politics, our German economists put out a note yesterday (link here ) on the CDU conference and the upcoming SPD leadership result, which is going to be announced on Sunday. They say that the outcome of the leadership race is hard to predict, but it could have implications for the fate of the country’s grand coalition. A victory for Scholz and Geywitz would support their baseline of the coalition finishing its term of office in 2021, though they write that a win for Walter-Borjans and Esken wouldn’t automatically lead to a government collapse either. Indeed, a reason for both of the coalition parties to keep the government on the road is that current polls show they’d fall short of a majority.

In terms of data, the main highlight from yesterday was the Ifo business climate indicator from Germany, which rose to 95.0 in November, exactly in line with expectations. Although this is the highest reading since July, it’s still below the levels seen throughout all of 2013-2018. Looking at the other readings, the expectations indicator came in at 92.1 (vs. 92.5 expected), while the current assessment reading rose a tenth to 97.9 (vs. 97.9 expected). So still subdued relative to the recent past, but the positive takeaway is that all three indicators were up from October.

Turning to the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity index fell to -0.71 (vs. -0.20 expected), which was its second-lowest level since January 2014. However, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing activity index rose to -1.3 (vs. -3.8 expected).

To the day ahead, and we have a raft of data releases from the US today, including the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence reading, October’s new home sales, the Richmond Fed’s November manufacturing index, the preliminary October reading for wholesale inventories, along with the September FHFA house price index. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s the GfK consumer confidence reading from Germany. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Coeure and Wunsch, along with the Fed’s Brainard who’s discussing the policy framework review.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.89 POINTS OR 0.03%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 79.12 POINTS OR 0.29%   /The Nikkei closed UP 79.12 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .79%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0402 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0402 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0378 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China recognizes the downward pressure on the economy and for that reason it is warning that might not be able to resist these forces to stimulate global growth

(zerohedge)

China Central Bank Warns Downward Pressure On Economy Increasing 

Several weeks ago, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it would “increase counter-cyclical adjustments” to prevent downward pressure on the economy. Now the PBOC is warning that it might not be able to ward off these downward pressures in the short term, reported Reuters.

The PBOC’s annual financial stability report said China would continue to deploy fiscal and monetary policies to support the economy but warned economic deceleration would continue through year-end.

Policy maneuvering by the PBOC will be limited as it will likely need to cut rates and the amount of money banks put down as reserves to promote credit growth.

The PBOC recognizes the rapid deterioration in the economy, along with the limitations of monetary policy to revive growth.

Likely, credit creation via the PBOC won’t be in magnitude seen in the last ten years used to save the world from escaping several deflationary crashes.

The government will likely stabilize its economy or at least create a softer landing through tax cuts and infrastructure spending, the annual report said.

What this all means is that China’s economy isn’t going to save the world as it has done since 2008. China’s credit impulse has rolled over, the probabilities of a massive global economic rebound in the coming quarters are unlikely as China continues slow.

Fathom Consulting’s China Momentum Indicator 2.0 (CMI 2.0) provides a more in-depth view of China’s economic deceleration through alternative data as there’s no evidence at the moment that would suggest a trough in China’s economy.

 

China’s economy over the last decade has created 60% of all new global debt. This means with China’s economy in freefall, the PBOC powerless over downside, GDP will likely fall to the 5-handle in early 2020. More importantly, this means a global economic rebound of massive proportions is unlikely to happen early next year.

 

end
This will be a deterrent to the trade deal:  China’s top diplomat strongly condemns the USA bill on Hong Kong Human rights.
(zerohedge)

China’s Top Diplomat “Strongly Condemns US Bill On Hong Kong Human Rights”

Reuters notes in a series of headlines on Tuesday, China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi criticized US lawmakers for supporting protestors in Hong Kong.

  • CHINA’S TOP DIPLOMAT YANG JIECHI SAYS CHINA STRONGLY CONDEMNS US BILL ON HONG KONG HUMAN RIGHTS -XINHUA
  • CHINA’S TOP DIPLOMAT YANG JIECHI SAYS LODGED STERN REPRESENTATIONS WITH US ON HONG KONG BILL-XINHUA

In an interview with the official Xinhua, Jiechi said, “China resolutely opposes and strongly condemns the bill, and has expressed our severe position to the American side.”

China’s Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang on Monday ordered US Ambassador Terry Branstad to protest US lawmakers from passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.

A statement posted on the foreign ministry’s website asked the US “to correct its errors and stop meddling in Hong Kong affairs and interfering in China’s internal matters.”

The US House of Representatives voted 417 to 1 for the Hong Kong Bill last week, and have since sent the legislation to the White House for signing.

Craig Caplan

@CraigCaplan

417-0: House unanimously passes legislation in support of Hong Kong protestors by banning the commercial export of certain crowd-control munitions to the Hong Kong Police Force. Bill passed Senate by voice vote yesterday and now heads to President Trump.

View image on Twitter

President Trump is expected to sign the bill into law, despite continuing trade talks with China.

Zeguang said if the bill was passed, it would encourage violence and be a violation of international relations.

“China expresses its strong resentment and resolute opposition,” the statement read.

The bill comes at a difficult time for Trump as his administration is trying to complete the first phase of a long-awaited trade deal with China. Last week, Vice President Mike Pence said that it would be difficult for the US to sign a trade agreement with China if the demonstrations in Hong Kong are met with violence.

“The president’s made it clear it’ll be very hard for us to do a deal with China if there’s any violence or if that matter is not treated properly and humanely,” Pence said in an interview with Indianapolis-based radio host Tony Katz.

zerohedge@zerohedge

TRUMP SAYS GOING TO TAKE ‘GOOD LOOK’ AT HONG KONG BILL

Another prominent Republican, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell urged Trump to personally voice support for the protesters last week, which Trump has declined to do.

“We have to get it passed and we have to get it passed quickly,” New Jersey Representative Chris Smith, the lead Republican sponsor of the House bill said. The legislation tells protesters that “Congress has their back, that we are fully supportive of democracy and the rule of law in Hong Kong.”

“It tells Xi Jinping that there’s a price,” Smith said of China’s president. “There’s one provision after another that says, ‘we’re not kidding.'”

The bill would also sanction Chinese officials deemed responsible for undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy.

It remains unclear whether Trump will veto the bill, opening himself up to accusations he has been in bed with Beijing all along. Though if Trump vetoes the bill, both the House and the Senate would have enough support to override a presidential veto.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA

Interesting: Tom Luongo states that maybe it is time to invest in Russia

(Tom Luongo)

Stay Strong, Go Long – Bulletproof Russia Becomes Contrarian Haven

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

It’s a tough road being a contrarian on Russia. This is especially true today when the entirety of the U.S. and European political system is aligned to demonize Russia at nearly every level.

And the main reason for this is that Russia under President Vladimir Putin refuses to do the West’s bidding both at home and abroad. The central tenet of U.S. foreign policy is that U.S. concerns, no matter where they are, are supreme and everyone else’s are subordinate.

Russia under Putin doesn’t play that game. He hasn’t for nearly twenty years now. This is not to say, of course, that objectively speaking Putin is a good man or even a good leader. In studying Putin for the past seven years I’ve come to one inescapable conclusion.

He was exactly the leader Russia needed to dig the country out of the abyss it found itself in when he took over. He is exactly the kind of leader Russia needs to guide it through the next period of history.

So much analysis of Putin and Russia is so thoroughly ideologically tainted that, on that basis alone, it should be dismissed out of hand. And it has been successful enough that even the best analysts who are truly skeptical of the U.S. narrative still get some of the basics about Russia and Putin horribly wrong.

I’ve been recommending Russia as an investment to people since early 2015 and its state-owned gas giant Gazprom (NYSE:OGZPY) since mid-2014. I haven’t wavered in that recommendation, despite the ups and downs.

And the reason for this is simple. While markets do not trade on fundamentals every day, over the long run a market’s or stock’s fundamentals do eventually overcome sentiment and assert themselves on the price.

So, in 2014 when oil prices collapsed so did the price of Gazprom. The ruble went through a crisis intended to oust Putin from power in revenge for his thwarting the U.S. takeover of Crimea.

Putin’s deft handling of the ruble crisis and Russia’s impeccable national balance sheet allowed both to survive and begin digging the country out of the latest hole placed in front of it.

Since then the U.S. has piled on obstacle after obstacle in front of Russia in the global marketplace for capital. The Magnitsky Act has been used like a bludgeon to scare investors away from the land of the Evil Putin.

False flags and overt provocations to war in Syria, Ukraine and the U.K. have slowed the pace of investment in Russia’s capital markets. Gazprom for years languished both because of the political risks of U.S. pressure in Europe to stop first the South Stream and then the Nordstream 2 pipelines.

Frivolous lawsuits from Ukraine, the EU and the Baltics have dogged the company for years. The EU has changed its laws to retroactively try and gain a legal upper hand on Gazprom’s pricing of natural gas. But, ultimately, none of it has worked.

Slowly, but surely, Russia’s fundamentals and its stable and improving political situation are winning the hearts of investors looking for yield in a yield-free world.

An article in Forbes last week documented this shift in sentiment perfectly.

“They’ve made themselves bulletproof,” says James Barrineau, co-head of emerging-market debt for Schroders Investment in New York.

“They can pay off all their foreign debts with their central bank reserves. Plus, they’re cutting interest rates. The currency is very stable. And they have room on the fiscal side to spend on their economy.”

The first point is something I pointed out in 2015. The numbers were this good then. And yet, the ratings agencies, like dutiful quislings, cut Russia’s ratings to junk status.

And they did this against fundamentals like having enough money to pay off the entire country’s debt load, public and private, and at the time at 13.3% debt-to-GDP ratio. Today that ratio stands, after a currency crisis, at just 11.8%.

Someone remind me what the U.S.’s is?

As always, what the world responded to was the hardship of the U.S. all but kicking Russia out of the dollar-funding markets. The only step not taken against Russia was removing it from the SWIFT interbank messsaging system.

That wasn’t done for the same reasons that it wasn’t reinstated by Trump on Iran after he pulled out of the JCPOA. It doesn’t work. All it does is hasten the rate at which the country learns to work without U.S. dollars.

By 2019 Russia, China and Iran have alternatives to SWIFT to prosecute international trade outside of the U.S.’s purview. Once those transactions leave SWIFT the U.S. loses a very powerful monitoring tool.

And in surviving this full court press to destroy Russia financially and keep capital from fleeing there the U.S. has made it a stronger destination today than it would have ever been had it not gone this route.

Instead of isolating Russia financially and destroying the ruble, it actually made the dollar more suspect and raised the profile of the ruble across central Asia.

President Trump has weaponized the dollar to such an extent that he’s raised the costs of using it for countries that do significant business with Russia above that of the ruble.

And it starts with the political stability created by Putin and his deft diplomatic corps, led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Putin has made it a point of always keeping his promises on the world stage, no matter how rocky the relationship.

Trump on the other hand has unilaterally bullied and sanctioned most of the world for not doing what he wants. Putin keeps making this point over and over again, Trump is destroying the long-term viability of the dollar. The key to that statement being ‘long-term.’

Because a country that acts honorably on the world stage, encourages trade over blackmail, honors its contracts even when the rules are arbitrarily changed against them and stands by its allies will generate the kind of good will that will increase the willingness of people locally to accept that country’s currency.

Since Trump went on his sanction the world policy, the ruble has been on a tear in international markets. While mildly strengthening versus the dollar (0.8%), the ruble has risen 11% versus the total basket of its trading partners (REER).

This is the clearest picture I can paint of the ruble decoupling from the U.S. dollar and it’s a trend worth watching into the future. Because as the dollar rises into the teeth of the brewing financial crisis (think European banking meltdown currently underway) the ruble will act as a port in the storm for those economies terminally short dollars.

With the Bank of Russia finally letting its boot off the neck of the Russian economy by lowering interest rates aggressively over the past four months, the Ruble hasn’t degraded one bit.

If anything all this has done is strengthen demand for the ruble as pent-up demand in the form of huge domestic savings now can be deployed as new business loans and corporate bond issues at far better rates a few months ago.

 

That said the Bank of Russia is still behind the curve by looking at the spread between the Overnight lending rate (a proxy for the benchmark rate) and the yield on a 1 year government note.

All that’s happened since Elvira Nabullina began cutting rates is demand for Russian debt has skyrocketed as investors in the West search for safe returns and across Emerging Markets starved of dollars. And while the ruble is nowhere close to overthrowing the dollar on the global stage and likely never will, it only takes a small shift in demand to create outsized effects on markets as comparatively small as Russia’s.

The rate of de-dollarization of the Russia economy is not as fast as the headlines would have you believe, but it is happening. The ruble now accounts for more than 30% of Russian exports and 20% of its overall international trade.

The world is insanely short dollars at this point and will continue to be for the next decade. That much is certain. It will fuel a massive dollar rally ove the next few years.

But Russia isn’t alone in the woods anymore on this path. India, Turkey, China, Iran and others understand what that reliance on the dollar means during economic downturns. And they are working with Putin to lay the groundwork to keep their economies from collapsing as the dollars flow out.

This is why Putin and Xi have been adamant about building ways to bypass the dollar for local trade. It will allow the dollar short positions of local companies to fade just like did for Russian companies after the ruble crisis in 2015.

Now that we’re four years beyond the worst of that and the political reality surrounding Russia far better than it was then, its stock market is booming, demand for its debt is rising and contrarian investors are looking for the next generational play to park their cash despite the obstacles the U.S. places in front of them.

The key for this will be the EU, as Russia’s trade with the EU in euros is nearly as big as it is in dollars now. This is what will prompt the rescinding of sanctions against Russia this year.

When that happens you can expect a big pop in the Moscow Exchange.

*  *  *

Join My Patreon if you want the real story about what’s going on in Russia Install the Brave Browser if you want to bypass the roadblocks to letting you do so.

END

TURKEY

TURKEY is running out of dollars similar to what is happening in Lebanon and Iran.  Now Erdogan warns his citizens to dump dollars and buy Turkish lira. It will not work

(zerohedge)

Erdogan: “Patriotic” Turks. Now Is The Time To “Leave The Dollar” And Buy Turkish Lira 

President Tayyip Erdogan, on Tuesday, told Turks to ditch the dollar and convert their foreign currencies to Turkish lira as an act of “patriotism,” reported Reuters.

“Leave the dollar and the rest. Let’s turn to our money, the Turkish lira. The Turkish lira doesn’t lose value anymore. Let’s show our patriotism like this,” Erdogan told members of his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in parliament.

The chart below shows the last several times Erdogan has demanded Turks dump dollars for lira.

Turkey is faced with a historic economic crisis. The Turkish lira has plunged over the last five years, international credit rating agencies have downgraded the country’s debt to junk, and a recession threat remains imminent.

Erdogan’s government published plans for de-dollarizing in July 2019 to build a central bank-issued digital currency.

The digital currency, named the ‘digital lira,’ will be part of a new economic development roadmap from the early 2020s to mid-2025, that will end the country’s dependence on the dollar.

Tests of the digital lira are expected at the end of 2020, and it will allow instantaneous transactions between Turkish citizens and offer decentralized financial instruments for the economy.

 

Once again Erdogan is demanding Turks to de-dollarize. Shown above, he’s made the call several times over the last five years as the lira has collapsed.

Maybe the lira is headed for another plunge and Erdogan wants Turks to buy the dip? But the call this time to buy the lira is coming ahead of the possible launch of the digital lira.

The latest news from Turkey indicates Russian S-400 missile defense systems are being tested in Ankara, which will certainly outrage the Trump administration and could force Washington to hit Turkey with new economic sanctions. The result would weigh on the currency, so maybe Erdogan is drumming up buying power before the next plunge.

end

6.Global Issues

A good history lesson for us:  700 years of interest rates throughout the globe

(zerohedge)

The History Of Interest Rates Over 670 Years

Today, we live in a low-interest-rate environment, where the cost of borrowing for governments and institutions is lower than the historical average. It is easy to see that interest rates are at generational lows, but, as Visual Capitalist’s Nicholas LePan notes below, did you know that they are also at 670-year lows?

This week’s chart outlines the interest rates attached to loans dating back to the 1350s. Take a look at the diminishing history of the cost of debt—money has never been cheaper for governments to borrow than it is today.

The Birth of an Investing Class

Trade brought many good ideas to Europe, while helping spur the Renaissance and the development of the money economy.

Key European ports and trading nations, such as the Republic of Genoa or the Netherlands during the Renaissance period, help provide a good indication of the cost of borrowing in the early history of interest rates.

The Republic of Genoa: 4-5 year Lending Rate

Genoa became a junior associate of the Spanish Empire, with Genovese bankers financing many of the Spanish crown’s foreign endeavors.

Genovese bankers provided the Spanish royal family with credit and regular income. The Spanish crown also converted unreliable shipments of New World silver into capital for further ventures through bankers in Genoa.

Dutch Perpetual Bonds

perpetual bond is a bond with no maturity date. Investors can treat this type of bond as an equity, not as debt. Issuers pay a coupon on perpetual bonds forever, and do not have to redeem the principal—much like the dividend from a blue-chip company.

By 1640, there was so much confidence in Holland’s public debt, that it made the refinancing of outstanding debt with a much lower interest rate of 5% possible.

Dutch provincial and municipal borrowers issued three types of debt:

  1. Promissory notes (Obligatiën): Short-term debt, in the form of bearer bonds, that was readily negotiable
  2. Redeemable bonds (Losrenten): Paid an annual interest to the holder, whose name appeared in a public-debt ledger until the loan was paid off
  3. Life annuities (Lijfrenten): Paid interest during the life of the buyer, where death cancels the principal

Unlike other countries where private bankers issued public debt, Holland dealt directly with prospective bondholders. They issued many bonds of small coupons that attracted small savers, like craftsmen and often women.

Rule Britannia: British Consols

In 1752, the British government converted all its outstanding debt into one bond, the Consolidated 3.5% Annuities, in order to reduce the interest rate it paid. Five years later, the annual interest rate on the stock dropped to 3%, adjusting the stock as Consolidated 3% Annuities.

The coupon rate remained at 3% until 1888, when the finance minister converted the Consolidated 3% Annuities, along with Reduced 3% Annuities (1752) and New 3% Annuities (1855), into a new bond─the 2.75% Consolidated Stock. The interest rate was further reduced to 2.5% in 1903.

Interest rates briefly went back up in 1927 when Winston Churchill issued a new government stock, the 4% Consols, as a partial refinancing of WWI war bonds.

American Ascendancy: The U.S. Treasury Notes

 

The United States Congress passed an act in 1870 authorizing three separate consol issues with redemption privileges after 10, 15, and 30 years. This was the beginning of what became known as Treasury Bills, the modern benchmark for interest rates.

The Great Inflation of the 1970s

In the 1970s, the global stock market was a mess. Over an 18-month period, the market lost 40% of its value. For close to a decade, few people wanted to invest in public markets. Economic growth was weak, resulting in double-digit unemployment rates.

The low interest policies of the Federal Reserve in the early ‘70s encouraged full employment, but also caused high inflation. Under new leadership, the central bank would later reverse its policies, raising interest rates to 20% in an effort to reset capitalism and encourage investment.

Looking Forward: Cheap Money

Since then, interest rates set by government debt have been rapidly declining, while the global economy has rapidly expanded. Further, financial crises have driven interest rates to just above zero in order to spur spending and investment.

It is clear that the arc of lending bends towards ever-decreasing interest rates, but how low can they go?

END

GLOBAL WARMING?

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Solar Minimum Madness: Is Thanksgiving’s Winter Wonderland A Preview Of Bitterly Cold Winter To Come?

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

This week, three major winter storms will batter most of the country with ice, snow and bitterly cold temperatures just in time for Thanksgiving. It is being projected that 55 million Americans will be traveling this week, and so this bizarre weather comes at a very bad time. But of course we have already seen a series of blizzards roar across the nation in recent weeks and hundreds of record cold temperatures have already been shattered and we are still about a month away from the official start of winter. Normally, it isn’t supposed to be this cold or this snowy yet, but we don’t live in “normal” times.

Scientists tell us that solar activity becomes very quiet during a “solar minimum”, and when solar activity becomes very quiet we tend to have very cold winters. And in recent months solar activity has been very, very low. In fact, we haven’t seen any sunspots at all “since November 2”

We have not seen any sunspots since November 2, and at that time they were only visible for two days, and prior to that no sunspots since October 2.

Unless things change, and that is not expected to happen, we should prepare for a very cold and very snowy winter. And this upcoming week is likely to be a preview of coming attractions. According to CNN, holiday travelers will have three major winter storms to deal with…

As Thanksgiving week starts, a record number of travelers will be dealing with three storms nationwide that will add to the holiday stress.

One storm will lash the East and will affect travel through Sunday, another one will batter the Midwest on Tuesday and a third one will move through the West on Wednesday.

Forecasters are telling us that Denver could receive a foot of snow, but it isn’t too unusual for Denver to get a lot of snow.

But it is unusual for Arizona, New Mexico and Texas to get snow this time of the year, and apparently it looks like that could happen on Wednesday

By Wednesday Arizona could see snow, as could New Mexico, the northern Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle.

As that storm moves through the Midwest,“winterlike travel” is expected over large portions of the heartland…

“At this time, enough snow to create winterlike travel is anticipated from central and northeastern Colorado to much of Nebraska, northern Kansas, much of Iowa, northwestern Missouri, northwestern Illinois, southeastern Minnesota, central and eastern Wisconsin and northern Michigan,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

Forecasters expect Tuesday into Wednesday to bring the worst conditions in the Midwest, with strong, gusty winds battering such key airports as Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport.

Shortly thereafter, an absolutely massive winter storm is going to hit California really hard, and we are being told that “travel may be impossible” in certain areas…

Winter storm watches have already been issued for the Sierra and the National Weather Service is saying travel may be impossible as snow levels drop which could lead to numerous road closures Wednesday into Thursday.

Several feet is forecast to snow in the mountains. In the lower elevations and along the coast, it will be rain with the possibility of totals reaching 5 inches.

This definitely is not normal.

In some parts of the country, it feels like winter already arrived more than a month ago. This has had a huge impact on harvest season, and unusually cold temperatures could also make things extremely difficult for farmers that plan to grow crops this winter. The following comes from Martin Armstrong

The BIG FREEZE is upon us. The volatility in weather that our computer has been forecasting on a long-term basis should result in this winter being colder than the last. In Britain, the snow has hit an already flood-ravaged country as temperatures plunged to -7C. This is part of the problem we face. The ground freezes down and this prevents winter crops. During the late 1700s, the ground froze to a depth of 2 feet according to John Adams.

And over in Scotland, it is being projected that this could be “the coldest winter for 10 years”

 

SCOTLAND is forecast the coldest winter for 10 years – with -13C lows, snow, ice and travel woes, with a weak sun and Arctic chills blamed.

The worst winter since 2009-10 is due as the sun is at the weakest point of its 11-year cycle of strength, said The Weather Company, the world’s biggest commercial forecaster.

The last time the sun’s power was as low as now, Scotland saw the bitter 2009-10 winter, Britain’s coldest winter since the 1970s, and the 2010 Big Freeze, with the coldest December ever recorded.

We are witnessing bizarrely cold weather all over the northern hemisphere, but most people don’t understand why this is happening.

More than anything else, solar activity determines whether conditions are going to be warmer or colder than normal. So this is why the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac are both telling us that this winter will be bitterly cold and very snowy

Not long after the Farmers’ Almanac suggested it would be a “freezing, frigid, and frosty” season, the *other* Farmer’s Almanac has released its annual weather forecast—and it’s equally upsetting.

While the first publication focused on the cold temperatures anticipated this winter, the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts that excessive snowfall will be the most noteworthy part of the season.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which was founded in 1792, says that the upcoming winter “will be remembered for strong storms” featuring heavy rain, sleet, and a lot of snow. The periodical actually used the word “snow-verload” to describe the conditions we can expect in the coming months.

Scientists are hoping that solar activity will return to normal soon, but there is no guarantee that will happen. In fact, in a recent article I explained that some experts believe that we may have entered a “grand solar minimum” similar to the Maunder Minimum that created a “mini ice age” in the 17th century. The sunspot cycle virtually vanished from 1645 to 1715, and this resulted in bitterly cold temperatures, disastrous harvests and famines that killed millions upon millions of people all over the globe.

Hopefully things will not get that bad any time soon, but without a doubt we live at a time when global weather patterns are going absolutely haywire. We should be hoping for the best, but we should also be preparing for the worst.

This week, the crazy weather will be a major headache for holiday travelers, but that is just a temporary problem. If solar activity does not return to normal over the next few years, we will soon have far larger issues to deal with.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1017 UP .0006 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.95 DOWN 0.047 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2864   DOWN   0.0033  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3312 UP .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 0.89 POINTS OR 0.03% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 79.12 POINTS OR 0.29%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,79%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 79.12 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.89 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .79% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 80.51  POINTS OR 0.55%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1457.00

silver:$16.92-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.75% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.18 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.31 DOWN 1 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.37% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.08%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,17 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 78 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.37% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.54% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1013  UP     .0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.13 UP .134 OR YEN DOWN 134  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2851 DOWN .0045 POUND DOWN 45  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 19 basis points to 1.3285

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0336    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0131  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7619 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.08%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.74 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 218 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.33 UP 1  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 6.85  0.09%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 10.08 POINTS OR .08%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 4.76 POINTS 0.08%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 4.90 POINTS or 0.05%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 86.51 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.35 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.00 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    63.98  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.05 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 05 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.37 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.39//

 

 

BRENT :  64.24

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.74…minus 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.17…minus 3 pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.10237 ( UP 3   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.04 UP .040 (YEN DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.24 DOWN 8 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2864 DOWN 32  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7602

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.97   UP 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3275 UP 29 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0336  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0129 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.37%

 

The Dow closed UP 55.21 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 15,45 POINTS OR 0.18%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  11.73 CLOSED DOWN .14

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.918%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Another “Deal Is Close” Headline Sends Stocks, Bonds, Dollar, Yuan, & Gold All Higher

A high-level conversation… spun as progress… additional headlines from various administration officials all claiming a deal is close… and hey presto – more gains for stocks and more new record highs…

Is it really that simple? YES!!!

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan was bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks were bid…

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” Stocks were bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was bid…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar was bid…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was crushed at 8amET but spent the entire day below 12…

Source: Bloomberg

Smart Money Flow remains unmoved by equity exuberance…

Source: Bloomberg

As broad markets were panic-bid from around 1530ET, AAPL was dramatically divergent…

Equity market volume was over 30% below average…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks decoupled from the flattening yield curve for a few days, but is catching back down today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were stable today after the last couple of days’ fireworks…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper surged today along with gold and silver as crude traded chaotically higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver shot back above $17…

WTI kept pushing higher in its channel…

And finally, just in case you thought you were going insane with the endless ramps on “China deal is close” headlines, you’re not…

As PeakProsperity’s Adam Taggart exclaims…

  • Fool us once, shame on you.
  • Fool us twice, shame on us.
  • Fool us daily for a year… what the hell is wrong with us???

Don’t stop believin’…

 END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Gold & Yuan Are Suddenly Surging

 

US equity markets are floundering around the flatline but both gold and offshore yuan are suddenly aggressively bid out of nowhere…

Stocks are clinging to green…

As Yuan spiked to overnight highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold is jumping..

Source: Bloomberg

 

And so is Silver…

Source: Bloomberg

A catalyst is unclear though some have argued this is related to China’s large USD bond issuance.

end

ii)Market data/USA

As lower prices on homes are the norm, we witness a huge increase in new home slaes

(zerohedge)

US New Home Sales Pace Highest In 12 Years As Median Price Plunges

Following the upside surprise in existing home sales, new home sales were expected to rebound after September’s dip.

However, a massive upward revision for September (from -0.7% to +4.5%) meant that October new home sales slipped 0.7%…

Source: Bloomberg

The 733k SAAR is much higher than the expected 705k, and the fastest pace in more than 12 years, adding to signs of sturdy housing demand amid lower prices and borrowing costs.

Source: Bloomberg

Even with the gains, the pace of new home sales remains well below levels reached during the housing boom of the 2000s, when purchases peaked at 1.39 million.

Notably though the median sales price decreased 3.5% from a year earlier to $316,700…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Purchases of new homes rose from the prior month in the West and Midwest, while declining in the Northeast and South.

The number of properties sold for which construction hadn’t yet started rose to 250,000, the highest since 2007.

 end
USA consumer confidence tumbles again for the 4th straight month
(zerohedge)

US Consumer Confidence Tumbles For 4th Straight Month Despite Soaring Stocks

‘Hope’ improved marginally in November, according to The Conference Board, but the headline consumer confidence data dropped for the 4th straight month as current conditions slipped.

  • Consumer confidence in Nov. fell to 125.5 vs. 126.1 prior month.
  • Present situation confidence fell to 166.9 vs. 173.5 last month.
  • Consumer confidence expectations rose to 97.9 vs. 94.5 last month.

Consumers’ appraisal of current-day conditions was less favorable in November. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” rose slightly from 39.7 percent to 40.2 percent, but those claiming business conditions are “bad” also increased, from 11.0 percent to 13.8 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

“Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month, driven by a softening in consumers’ assessment of current business and employment conditions,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

“The decline in the Present Situation Index suggests that economic growth in the final quarter of 2019 will remain weak. However, consumers’ short-term expectations improved modestly, and growth in early 2020 is likely to remain at around 2 percent. Overall, confidence levels are still high and should support solid spending during this holiday season.”

 

Additionally, those saying jobs are “plentiful” decreased from 47.7 percent to 44.8 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased from 11.6 percent to 12.7 percent.

And all of this as stocks hit record high after record high.

end
although the trade deficit fell by 5.7% in October we still have a huge deficit for the year.  However if we take a closer look, it was imports falling more than exports and this a sign of a poorer economy
(courtesy Market Watch)

U.S. trade deficit in goods falls 5.7% in October to a 17-month low

Nov 26, 2019 8:55 a.m. ET

U.S. trade deficit in 2019 shaping up to be the biggest in 11 years

The numbers: An early look at U.S. trade patterns in October showed a nearly 6% decline in the nation’s trade deficit in goods. The gap was the lowest level in 17 months, but the U.S. is still likely to post the biggest deficit in 2019 in 11 years.

The trade deficit in goods fell to $66.5 billion in October from a revised $70.5 billion in the prior month, the government said Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a $71.8 billion deficit.

The advanced report also revealed an 0.2% increase in wholesale inventories and a 0.3% gain in retail inventories.

What happened: Imports of foreign-made goods declined by $5 billion to $201.8 billion in October, perhaps reflecting a recent pattern of up-and-down figures depending on the timing of new U.S. tariffs on China. Companies rush to buy imports before tariffs go into effect and cut back later on.

Exports of U.S. goods slipped by a smaller $900 million to $135.3 billion.

Most trading between countries involves goods such as autos, airplanes, oil, chemicals, electronics, clothing and the like.

The full October trade report comes out next week and includes services. The U.S. has run a surplus for years in services such as banking, tourism and entertainment, but they reflect a small portion of trade. The services balance doesn’t change much from month to month.

In September the total U.S. trade deficit was $52.5 billion.

Big picture: The U.S. has run large trade deficits for years and nothing has really changed despite on-and-off efforts to reduce them. Even though Trump administration tariffs have caused Chinese imports to decline, imports from other countries have risen.

Higher deficits subtract from gross domestic product, though rising inventories add to GDP.

-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This is heartbreaking: 75% of all millennials may never be able to afford owning ahouse

(zerohedge)

75% Of Millennials May Never Be Able To Afford Owning A House

More so than with Gen X and the Baby Boomers, housing has become indelibly tied up with the millennial identity. That’s largely because economic hardship – or at the very least, stagnation and heavy debt – is perhaps the single defining characteristic of the generation that came or age during or just after the financial crisis nearly destroyed the global economy.

And while many had hoped that millennials would find their footing and their economic prospects would improve with time, sadly, that’s just not the case for many millennials.

And in its latest study of millennial attitudes toward the housing market, Apartment List found that a growing percentage of those surveyed said they fully expected to be renters forever. Unsurprisingly, the percentage of respondents who felt that homeownership would be forever out of reach was higher in expensive urban enclaves like NYC, and many cities across the state of California.

 

But perhaps the most alarming finding from the study stems from the researchers examination of student debt and how the burden of making their monthly loan payments impacts their ability to save for a down payment. At the current savings rate, just 25% of millennial renters will be ready to put down 10% on a median-priced starter home in the next five years (typically, buyers need 20% down to get a mortgage). That means 75% of millennials likely won’t be able to afford a down payment any time soon.

 

To better understand the barrier created by student debt, Apartment List tried to simulate Bernie Sanders’ proposal to take all student debt payments and apply them to down payments instead. Apartment List found that the effect would be significant: Across the country the percentage of millennials who would soon be able to afford a 10% down payment on a median condo would rise from 25% to 38%.

After more than a decade of decline, the national homeownership rate is finally climbing again. But the Apartment List study is unfortunately just the latest to show that the situation for millennials hasn’t improved. Half of millennials have nothing saved for a downpayment (despite being dangerous close to – or past – the age of 30). If this keeps up, millennials can ditch that tired sobriquet for something more appropriate: Generation Rent.

end

This is deadly to an economy: Spending by the wealthy is slowing down

(zerohedge)

Recession Early Warning? Spending By The Wealthy Is Slowing

Via SchiffGold.com,

America’s economy is built on consumption. Average Americans have been pushing the US economy along, spending money they don’t have. But as we’ve reported, there are signals that the credit cards might be close to maxed out. Now there appears to be another warning sign – the wealthy are reining in their spending.

In August, Spencer Schiff wrote an article noting the importance of consumer spending to the US economy and the consequences that will follow if Americans suddenly tighten up their wallets. The mainstream has also taken notice. During a CNBC interview, economist Jim O’Neill said the US economy is becoming “riskily dependent” on the “overleveraged consumer.”

The economy’s strength … depends so much on consumption, which is fine unless financial conditions tighten unexpectedly when a lot of indebted US consumers won’t be able to afford to keep up the consumption their doing.”

Well, it looks like the rich are tightening their belts.

According to a report at Yahoo Finance, spending by the rich has slowed over the last year. This could be an early warning of a recession. Spending by the top 10% of households by income makes up nearly half of overall consumption in the US.

According to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Moody’s Analytics, spending by the top 10% fell by 1% in the second quarter from the same period in 2018. And a four-quarter average of outlays by the high earners has slipped on an annual basis the past three quarters, marking the first such declines since the Great Recession of 2007-09, according to the Yahoo Finance report. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said this could be a big problem for the US economy.

High-income consumers have been the Atlas holding up the US and global economies. But they appear tired, and if they founder, so too will the economic expansion.”

Overall consumer spending is still increasing, but that pace has slowed as well. According to Yahoo Finance, household outlays increased 2.9% at an annual rate in the third quarter, down from a robust 4.6% early in the year.

CNBC noted the slowdown in spending by the wealthy a few months ago. Luxury real estate is having its worst year since the financial crisis. Sales at art auctions are down for the first time in years. Retailers that cater to the wealthy are also struggling. Tiffany’s revenue fell 4% in the Americas in the second quarter.  Barney’s filed for bankruptcy. And Nordstrom has posted three quarterly revenue declines.

According to CNBC,  “recent data suggest that the US wealthy are beginning to shut their wallets.”

Meanwhile, “savings of the rich has also exploded, more than doubling over the past two years, suggesting that the wealthy are hoarding cash.”

 

There are a number of reasons that the wealthy have tightened their wallets, according to the Yahoo Finance report.

  • Worry about the stock market. Although it has hit record highs in recent weeks, the broader market is only up 6.2% since September 2018 after the big drop last fall. Many fear the market is overvalued and primed for a crash.
  • Home prices aren’t rising at the same rate they were. Prices of the top-third, most expensive homes rose just 3.1% in October from a year earlier. Inventories of luxury homes have increased and sales have tanked. This could be a sign housing bubble 2.0 has popped.
  • Wage growth for the wealthy has stagnated.
  • Trump’s tax cuts eliminated many deductions and increased the tax burden on many wealthy Americans.

There is also seems to be a general some economic unease among the rich and a sense that it’s time to tighten their belts.

It would make sense that a spending slowdown would start with the wealthy since they tend to be more attuned to what’s going on in the economy. They didn’t get rich by being dumb with their money. The fact that the rich have shifted from spending to saving could be a canary in the coal mine.

end

The real story behind Ukraine//Part 3

(courtesy David Stockman)

David Stockman Exposes The Ukrainian Influence-Peddling Rings, Part 3 Of 3

Authored by David Stockman via AntiWar.com,

Read Part 1 here…

Read Part 2 here…

It’s beginning to seem like an assault by the Zulu army of American politics – they just never stop coming.

We are referring to the Russophobic neocon Deep Staters who have trooped before Adam’s Schiff Show to pillory POTUS for daring to look into the Ukrainian stench that engulfs the Imperial City – a rank odor that is owing to their own arrogant meddling in the the internal affairs of that woebegone country.

This time it was Dr. Fiona Hill who sanctimoniously advised the House committee that there is nothing to see on the Ukraine front that involved any legitimate matter of state; it was just the Donald and his tinfoil hat chums jeopardizing the serious business of protecting the national security by injecting electioneering into relations with Ukraine.

She warned Republicans that legitimizing an unsubstantiated theory that Kyiv undertook a concerted campaign to interfere in the election – a claim the president pushed repeatedly for Ukraine to investigate – played into Russia’s hands.

“In the course of this investigation,” Dr. Hill testified before the House Intelligence Committee’s impeachment hearings, “I would ask that you please not promote politically driven falsehoods that so clearly advance Russian interests.”

Folks, we are getting just plain sick and tired of this drumbeat of lies, misdirection and smug condescension by Washington payrollers like Fiona Hill. No Ukrainian interference in the 2016 US election?

Exactly what hay wagon does she think we fell off from?

Or better still, ask Paul Manafort who will spend his golden years in the Big House owing to an August 2016 leak to the New York Times about an alleged “black book” which recorded payments he had received from his work as an advisor to the Ukrainian political party of former president Yanakovych. As we have seen, the latter had been removed from office by a Washington instigated coup in February 2014.

By its own admission, this story came from the Ukrainian government and the purpose was clear as a bell: Namely, to undermine the Trump presidential campaign and force Manafort out of his months-old role as campaign chairman – a role that had finally brought some professional management to the Donald’s helter-skelter campaign for the nation’s highest office.

In the event, this well-timed bombshell worked, and in short order Manafort resigned, leaving the disheveled Trump campaign in the lurch:

…… government investigators examining secret records have found Manafort’s name, as well as companies he sought business with, as they try to untangle a corrupt network they say was used to loot Ukrainian assets and influence elections during the administration of Mr. Manafort’s main client, former President Viktor F. Yanukovych.

Handwritten ledgers show $12.7 million in undisclosed cash payments designated for Mr. Manafort from Mr. Yanukovych’s pro-Russian political party from 2007 to 2012, according to Ukraine’s newly formed National Anti-Corruption Bureau. Investigators assert that the disbursements were part of an illegal off-the-books system whose recipients also included election officials.

In addition, criminal prosecutors are investigating a group of offshore shell companies….. Among the hundreds of murky transactions these companies engaged in was an $18 million deal to sell Ukrainian cable television assets to a partnership put together by Mr. Manafort and a Russian oligarch, Oleg Deripaska, a close ally of President Vladimir V. Putin.

Mr. Manafort’s involvement with moneyed interests in Russia and Ukraine had previously come to light. But as American relationships there become a rising issue in the presidential campaign – from Mr. Trump’s favorable statements about Mr. Putin and his annexation of Crimea to the suspected Russian hacking of Democrats’ emails – an examination of Mr. Manafort’s activities offers new details of how he mixed politics and business out of public view and benefited from powerful interests now under scrutiny by the new government in Kiev.

The bolded lines in the NYT story above tell you exactly where this was coming from. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau had been set up by an outfit called “AntAC”, which was jointly funded by George Soros and the Obama State Department. And there can be little doubt that the Donald’s accurate view at the time – that Crimea’s reunification with Mother Russia after a 60 year hiatus which had been ordered by the former Soviet Union’s Presidium – was unwelcome in Kiev and among the Washington puppeteers who had put it in power.

For want of doubt that the Poroshenko government was in the tank for Hillary Clinton, the liberal rag called Politico spilled the beans a few months later. In a January 11, 2017 story it revealed that the Ukrainian government had pulled out all the stops attempting to help Clinton, whose protégés at the State Department had been the masterminds of the coup which put them in office. Thus, Politico concluded,

Donald Trump wasn’t the only presidential candidate whose campaign was boosted by officials of a former Soviet bloc country.

Ukrainian government officials tried to help Hillary Clinton and undermine Trump by publicly questioning his fitness for office. They also disseminated documents implicating a top Trump aide in corruption and suggested they were investigating the matter, only to back away after the election. And they helped Clinton’s allies research damaging information on Trump and his advisers, a Politico investigation found.

…President Petro Poroshenko’s administration, along with the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, insists that Ukraine stayed neutral in the race…..

But Politico’s investigation found evidence of Ukrainian government involvement in the race that appears to strain diplomatic protocol dictating that governments refrain from engaging in one another’s elections.

While it’s not uncommon for outside operatives to serve as intermediaries between governments and reporters, one of the more damaging Russia-related stories for the Trump campaign – and certainly for Manafort – can be traced more directly to the Ukrainian government.

Documents released by an independent Ukrainian government agency – and publicized by a parliamentarian – appeared to show $12.7 million in cash payments that were earmarked for Manafort by the Russia-aligned party of the deposed former president, Yanukovych.

The New York Times, in the August story revealing the ledgers’ existence, reported that the payments earmarked for Manafort were “a focus” of an investigation by Ukrainian anti-corruption officials, while CNN reported days later that the FBI was pursuing an overlapping inquiry.

Yet Fiona Hill sat before a House committee and under oath insisted that all of the above was a Trumpian conspiracy theory, thereby reminding us that the neocon Russophobes are so unhinged that they are prepared to lie at the drop of a hat to keep their false narrative about the Russian Threat and Putin’s “invasion” of Ukraine alive.

Needless to say, Fiona Hill is among the worst of the neocon warmongers, and has made a specialty of demonizing Russia and propagating over and over flat out lies about what happened in Kiev during 2014 and after. Thus, in one recent attack she claimed,

Russia today poses a greater foreign policy and security challenge to the United States and its Western allies than at any time since the height of the Cold War. Its annexation of Crimea, war in Ukraine’s Donbas region, and military intervention in Syria have upended Western calculations from Eastern Europe to the Middle East. Russia’s intervention in Syria, in particular, is a stark reminder that Russia is a multi-regional power…..

There is not a single true assertion in that quotation, of course, but we cite it for a very particular reason. Shifty Schiff & his impeachment tribunal have brought in Hill – and Lt. Colonel Vindman, Ambassador Taylor, George Kent and Tim Morrison previously – in order to create an echo chamber.

That’s right. The Dems are parroting the neocon lies – whether they believe them or not – in order to propagate the impression that the Donald is undermining national security in his effort to take a different posture on Russia and Ukraine, and is actually bordering on treason.
Thus, Adam Schiff repeated the false neocon narrative virtually word for word at the opening of the public hearings:

“In 2014, Russia invaded a United States ally, Ukraine, to reverse that nation’s embrace of the West, and to fulfill Vladimir Putin’s desire to rebuild a Russian empire.”

That’s pure rubbish. It’s based on the Big Lie that the overwhelming vote of the Russian population of Crimea in March 2014 was done at the gun point of the Russian Army. And that event, in turn, is the lynch-pin of the hoary canard that Putin is seeking to rebuild the Soviet Empire.

So it is necessary to review the truth once again about how Russian Crimea had been temporarily appended to the Ukrainian SSR during Soviet times.

The allegedly “occupied” territory of Crimea, in fact, was actually purchased from the Ottomans by Catherine the Great in 1783, thereby satisfying the longstanding quest of the Russian Czars for a warm-water port. Over the ages Sevastopol then emerged as a great naval base at the strategic tip of the Crimean peninsula, where it became home to the mighty Black Sea Fleet of the Czars and then the Soviet Union, too.

For the next 171 years Crimea was an integral part of Russia (until 1954). That span exceeds the 170 years that have elapsed since California was annexed by a similar thrust of “Manifest Destiny” on this continent, thereby providing, incidentally, the United States Navy with its own warm-water port in San Diego.

While no foreign forces subsequently invaded the California coasts, it was most definitely not Ukrainian and Polish rifles, artillery and blood which famously annihilated The Charge Of The Light Brigade at the Crimean city of Balaclava in 1854; they were Russians defending the homeland from Turks, French and Brits.

And the portrait of the Russian “hero” hanging in Putin’s office is that of Czar Nicholas I – whose brutal 30-year reign brought the Russian Empire to its historical zenith. Yet despite his cruelty, Nicholas I is revered in Russian hagiography as the defender of Crimea, even as he lost the 1850s war to the Ottomans and Europeans.

At the end of the day, security of its historic port in Crimea is Russia’s Red Line, not Washington’s. Unlike today’s feather-headed Washington pols, even the enfeebled Franklin Roosevelt at least knew that he was in Soviet Russia when he made port in the Crimean city of Yalta in February 1945.

Maneuvering to cement his control of the Kremlin in the intrigue-ridden struggle for succession after Stalin’s death a few years later, Nikita Khrushchev allegedly spent 15 minutes reviewing his “gift” of Crimea to his subalterns in Kiev.

As it happened, therefore, Crimea became part of the Ukraine only by writ of one of the most vicious and reprehensible states in human history – the former Soviet Union:

On April 26, 1954. The decree of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet transferring the Crimea Oblast from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR…..Taking into account the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic and cultural ties between the Crimea Province and the Ukrainian SSR….

That’s right. Washington’s hypocritical and tendentious accusations against Russia’s re-absorption of Crimea imply that the dead-hand of the Soviet presidium must be defended at all costs – as if the security of North Dakota depended upon it!

In fact, the brouhaha about “returning” Crimea is a naked case of the hegemonic arrogance that has overtaken Imperial Washington since the 1991 Soviet demise.

After all, during the long decades of the Cold War, the West did nothing to liberate the “captive nation” of Ukraine – with or without the Crimean appendage bestowed upon it in 1954. Nor did it draw any red lines in the mid-1990’s when a financially desperate Ukraine rented back Sevastopol and the strategic redoubts of the Crimea to an equally pauperized Russia.

In short, in the era before we got our Pacific port in 1848, and even during the 170-year interval since then, America’s national security has depended not one whit on the status of Russian-speaking Crimea. That the local population has now chosen fealty to the Grand Thief in Moscow over the ruffians and rabble who have seized Kiev amounts to a giant: So what!

The truth is, when it comes to Ukraine there really isn’t that much there, there. Its boundaries have been morphing for centuries among the quarreling tribes, peoples, potentates, Patriarchs and pretenders of a small region that is none of Washington’s damn business..

 

Still, it was this final aggressive drive of Washington and NATO into the internal affairs of Russia’s historic neighbor and vassal, Ukraine, that largely accounts for the demonization of Putin. Likewise, it is virtually the entire source of the false claim that Russia has aggressive, expansionist designs on the former Warsaw Pact states in the Baltics, Poland and beyond.

The latter is a nonsensical fabrication. In fact, it was the neocon meddlers from Washington who crushed Ukraine’s last semblance of civil governance when they enabled ultra-nationalists and crypto-Nazis to gain government positions after the February 2014 putsch.

As we indicated above, in one fell swoop that inexcusable stupidity reopened Ukraine’s blood-soaked modern history. The latter incepted with Stalin’s re-population of the eastern Donbas region with “reliable” Russian workers after his genocidal liquidation of the kulaks in the early 1930s.

It was subsequently exacerbated by the large-scale collaboration by Ukrainian nationalists in the west with the Nazi Wehrmacht as it laid waste to Poles, Jews, gypsies and other “undesirables” on its way to Stalingrad in 1942-43. Thereafter followed an equal and opposite spree of barbaric revenge as the victorious Red Army marched back through Ukraine on its way to Berlin.

So it may be fairly asked. What beltway lame brains did not chance to understand that Washington’s triggering of “regime change” in Kiev would reopen this entire bloody history of sectarian and political strife?

Moreover, once they had opened Pandora’s box, why was it so hard to see that an outright partition of Ukraine with autonomy for the Donbas and Crimea, or even accession to the Russian state from which these communities had originated, would have been a perfectly reasonable resolution?

Certainly that would have been far preferable to dragging all of Europe into the lunacy of the current anti-Putin sanctions and embroiling the Ukrainian factions in a suicidal civil war. The alleged Russian threat to Europe, therefore, was manufactured in Imperial Washington, not the Kremlin.

In fact, in 1989 and 1990, the George H. W. Bush administration assured Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that if he accepted German unification, the West would not seek to exploit the situation through any eastward expansion – not even by “one inch,” as then-secretary of state James Baker assured Gorbachev. But Bill Clinton reneged on that commitment, moving to expand NATO on an eastward path that eventually led right up to the Russian border.

So Robert Merry said it well in his excellent piece on the entire neocon Ukraine Scam that is being paraded before the Schiff Show.

NATO, with just 16 members in 1990, now includes 29 European states, with all of the expansion countries lying east of Germany. As this was unfolding, Russian leaders issued stern warnings about the consequences if America and the West sought to include in NATO either Ukraine or Georgia. Both are considered as fundamental to Russian security.

True, many in western Ukraine have pushed for greater ties to the West and wanted their elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, to respond favorably to Western financial blandishments. But Yanukovych, tilting toward Russia, eschewed NATO membership for Ukraine, renewed a long-term lease for the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, and gave official status to the Russian language. These actions eased tensions between Ukraine and Russia, but they inflamed Ukraine’s internal politics. And when Yanukovych abandoned negotiations aimed at an association and free-trade agreement with the European Union in favor of greater economic ties to Russia, pro-Western Ukrainians, including far-right provocateurs, staged street protests that ultimately brought down Yanukovych’s government. Victoria Nuland gleefully egged on the protesters. The deposed president fled to Russia.

Nuland then set about determining who would be Ukraine’s next prime minister, namely Arseniy Yatsenyuk. “Yats is our guy,” she declared to U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt. When Pyatt warned that many EU countries were uncomfortable with a Ukrainian coup, she shot back, “Fuck the EU.” She then got her man Yats into the prime minister position, demonstrating the influence that enables US meddling in foreign countries.

That’s when Putin rushed back to Moscow from the Winter Olympic Games at Sochi to protect the more Russian-oriented areas of Ukraine (the so-called Donbass in the country’s east and Crimea in the south) from being swallowed up in this new drama. He orchestrated a plebiscite in Crimea, which revealed strong sentiment for reunification with Russia (hardly the “sham referendum” described by Taylor) and sent significant military support to Donbass Ukrainians who didn’t want to be pulled westward.

The West and America have always been, and must remain, wary of Russia. Its position in the center of Eurasia – the global “heartland,” in the view of the famous British geographic scholar Halford Mackinder – renders it always a potential threat. Its vulnerability to invasion stirs in Russian leaders an inevitable hunger for protective lands. Its national temperament seems to include a natural tendency towards authoritarianism. Any sound American foreign policy must keep these things in mind.

But in the increasingly tense relationship between the Atlantic Alliance and Russia, the Alliance has been the more aggressive player – aggressive when it pushed for NATO’s eastward expansion despite promises to the contrary from the highest levels of the US government; aggressive when it turned that policy into an even more provocative plan for the encirclement of Russia; aggressive when it dangled the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia; aggressive when it sought to lure Ukraine out of the Russian orbit with economic incentives; aggressive when it helped foster the street coup against a duly elected Ukrainian government; and aggressive in its continued refusal to appreciate or acknowledge Russia’s legitimate geopolitical interests in its own neighborhood.

George Kent and William B. Taylor Jr., in their testimony last week, personified this aggressive outlook, designed to squeeze Russia into a geopolitical corner and trample upon its regional interests in the name of Western universalism. If that outlook continues and leads to ever greater tensions with Russia, it can’t end well.

That is, what is being desperately defended on Capitol Hill is not the rule of law, national security or fidelity to the Constitution of the United States., but a giant Neocon Lie that is needed to keep the Empire in business, and the world moving ever closer to an utterly unnecessary Cold War 2.0 between nation’s each pointing enough nuclear warheads at the other to destroy the planet.

*  *  *

David Stockman was a two-term Congressman from Michigan. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street. He’s the author of three books, The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution FailedThe Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America and TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back. He also is founder of David Stockman’s Contra Corner and David Stockman’s Bubble Finance Trader.

end

Holiday Forecasts Disappoint: Earning Recession Now Expected

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

An earnings recession is now expected after the forecast after fourth-quarter projections send expectations from a gain of more than 5% to a decline. What that means, is that the holiday season and consumer spending is no longer expected to pull corporate earnings out of a recession that has lasted the entire year.

Economists have often said that the only thing propping up this precarious economy is the American consumer and their willingness to take on more debt to purchase things. But that looks to be coming to an end, as earnings in the S&P 500 index are now projected to decline 1.51% in the fourth quarter from the year before, according to a FactSet computation of analysts’ average forecasts for individual companies.

An earnings recession is defined as two quarters or more of consecutive year-over-year declines, and earnings for S&P 500 components dipped in the first two quarters of 2019 and are all but certain to do so again in the third quarter — with nearly 95% of calendar third-quarter reports posted, earnings have dropped 2.34%, the biggest decline so far this year. –Market Watch

Three-fourths (75%) of earnings recessions since World War II have morphed into economic recessions, said CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall, who told Market Watch that he has been “scratching his head” trying to reconcile analyst pessimism around earnings with continued stock-market rallies.

 

This could be the result of “trade deal fears,” in Stovall’s opinion.

“Until details of the deal are revealed, along with the prospects for continued conversations, EPS estimates are likely to undershoot potential,” he wrote in a recent note to clients.

Amazon.com Inc., for example, is typically a big winner in holiday sales. However, it is expected to post an earnings decline of 31.3% in the fourth quarter, after earlier projections called for an 8.3% advance. The e-commerce giant ramped up spending this year to cut its delivery times to Prime customers in half to one day, and all retailers face a shortened shopping season this year with Thanksgiving falling later in the calendar month.

Stovall said that a trade resolution would offer some relief to multinational sectors, including industrials, materials, and technology, which also happen to be cyclical industries. “Maybe even energy might be able to get out of its own way,” he said.

end
wow!! this now becomes a criminal investigation against many opioid makers including J and J, and distributors like McKesson
(zerohedge)

Opioid-Makers/Distributors Dumped On Reports Of Criminal Probe

Federal prosecutors have reportedly opened a criminal investigation into whether pharmaceutical companies intentionally allowed opioid painkillers to flood communities.

As The Wall Street Journal notes, the feds are employing laws normally used to go after drug dealers, according to people familiar with the matter.

At least six companies have said in regulatory filings that they received grand-jury subpoenas from the U.S. attorney’s office in the Eastern District of New York:

  • drugmakers Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Mallinckrodt PLC, Johnson & Johnson and Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc.

  • and distributors AmerisourceBergen Corp. and McKesson Corp.

The Wall Street Journal notes that the probe is in its early stages and prosecutors are expected to subpoena additional companies in the coming months, one of the people said. It wasn’t clear if other companies had received subpoenas.

Virtually every state and more than 2,500 city and county governments have filed lawsuits against players up down the opioid supply chain, accusing them of marketing opioid painkillers too aggressively and failing to stop excessive amounts of pills from flooding into communities. Some of the companies are working with attorneys general on a multibillion-dollar settlement to resolve the entirety of the litigation.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Ron Paul correctly reveals the real bombshell of the impeachment hearings: we must never interfere with interventionist foreign policy

(courtesy Ron Paul)

Ron Paul Exposes The Real Bombshell Of The Impeachment Hearings

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

The most shocking thing about the House impeachment hearings to this point is not a “smoking gun” witness providing irrefutable evidence of quid pro quo. It’s not that President Trump may or may not have asked the Ukrainians to look into business deals between then-Vice President Biden’s son and a Ukrainian oligarch.

The most shocking thing to come out of the hearings thus far is confirmation that no matter who is elected President of the United States, the permanent government will not allow a change in our aggressive interventionist foreign policy, particularly when it comes to Russia.

Even more shocking is that neither Republicans nor Democrats are bothered in the slightest!

Take Lt. Colonel Vindman, who earned high praise in the mainstream media. He did not come forth with first-hand evidence that President Trump had committed any “high crimes” or “misdemeanors.” He brought a complaint against the President because he was worried that Trump was shifting US policy away from providing offensive weapons to the Ukrainian government!

He didn’t think the US president had the right to suspend aid to Ukraine because he supported providing aid to Ukraine.

According to his testimony, Vindman’s was concerned over “influencers promoting a false narrative of Ukraine inconsistent with the consensus views of the interagency.”

“Consensus views of the interagency” is another word for “deep state.”

Vindman continued, “While my interagency colleagues and I were becoming increasingly optimistic on Ukraine’s prospects, this alternative narrative undermined US government efforts to expand cooperation with Ukraine.”

Let that sink in for a moment: Vindman did not witness any crimes, he just didn’t think the elected President of the United States had any right to change US policy toward Ukraine or Russia!

Likewise, his boss on the National Security Council Staff, Fiona Hill, sounded more like she had just stepped out of the 1950s with her heated Cold War rhetoric. Citing the controversial 2017 “Intelligence Community Assessment” put together by then-CIA director John Brennan’s “hand-picked” analysts, she asserted that, “President Putin and the Russian security services aim to counter US foreign policy objectives in Europe, including in Ukraine.”

 

And who gets to decide US foreign policy objectives in Europe? Not the US President, according to government bureaucrat Fiona Hill. In fact, Hill told Congress that, “If the President, or anyone else, impedes or subverts the national security of the United States in order to further domestic political or personal interests, that is more than worthy of your attention.”

Who was Fiona Hill’s boss? Former National Security Advisor John Bolton, who no doubt agreed that the president has no right to change US foreign policy. Bolton’s the one who “explained” that when Trump said US troops would come home it actually meant troops would stay put.

One by one, the parade of “witnesses” before House Intelligence Committee Chairman Schiff sang from the same songbook. As US Ambassador to the EU, Gordon Sondland put it, “in July and August 2019, we learned that the White House had also suspended security aid to Ukraine. I was adamantly opposed to any suspension of aid, as the Ukrainians needed those funds to fight against Russian aggression.”

Meanwhile, both Democrats and Republicans in large majority voted to continue spying on the rest of us by extending the unpatriotic Patriot Act. Authoritarianism is the real bipartisan philosophy in Washington.

end
We will know for sure on Dec 9 but it sure looks like we have a situation whereby all evidence collected after the first FISA warrant is tainted and thus it is :fruit obtained from a poisonous tree” and as such any further evidence collected will be thrown out.  They will most likely throw out the conviction of Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos ..maybe Manafort as well.
(Sara Carter)

“Fruit Of The Poisonous Tree” – FISA Alterations Could Pose Significant Trouble For FBI

Authored by Sara Carter via SaraACarter.com,

Key Points

  • FBI officials concerned that FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith’s tampered and altered documents to obtain Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Warrant will put into question all the evidence gathered to obtain the warrant.
  • Horowitz referred Clinesmith to DOJ Prosecutor John Durham appointed by Attorney General William Barr for further investigation.
  • Other FBI officials will be wrapped up into Clinesmith’s warrant tampering. Who approved the warrants?
  • Criminal Defense Attorney David Schoen says FBI failed to make immediate correction of any materially false statement or any material omission. “Clearly no such correcting submission was made here.”
  • FBI Lawyer Kevin Clinesmith led the interview on George Papadopolous in February, 2017.
  • Clinesmith was anti-Trump and removed from the Russia investigation.

Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s anticipated report will reveal that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Application warrant was tampered with but the significance of that cannot be understated. It means that Horowitz’s discovery will discredit the bureau’s handling of its investigation into President Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia during the 2016 presidential election and it could make any information discovered during the course of seeking approval for the FISA and after ‘fruit of the poisonous tree’,” according to numerous sources who spoke to SaraACarter.com.

“Based on what we know, Clinesmith’s tampering of documents appears to have been significant enough to have played a role in the FISA courts decision to grant a warrant to spy on an American, maybe more than one American,” said a U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

“There is concern among the FBI that all the evidence will come into question, as it should – particularly the case of the ‘fruit of the poisonous tree’ that the evidence itself is tainted – if that’s true than anything gained from that evidence might also be tainted. This could be a problem for anyone who approved the FISA as well.”

What we now know is that FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith, allegedly altered an email that FBI officials used to prepare to seek court approval to renew the wiretaps on former Trump campaign advisor Carter Page, as first reported by the New York Times and verified by SaraACarter.com. The extent of the alterations in the FISA application is still unknown but it was significant enough for Horowitz to refer Clinesmith to Connecticut Federal Prosecutor John Durham, who was appointed by Attorney General William Barr to investigate the origins of the FBI’s handling of the probe. Durham’s probe has also expanded to the CIA, of which he has interviewed numerous officers and the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, which paid FBI confidential informant Stephan Halper to collect information on several Trump campaign advisors, as first reported by this new site.

The DOJ obtained three FISA renewal orders on Page. According to the NYT “the paperwork associated with the renewal applications contained information that should have been left out, and vice versa, the people briefed on the draft report said.”

That’s a serious problem, stated the U.S. official. Why? Because Clinesmith’s alterations in the documents played a role in the ability for the FBI to continue to wiretap Page throughout the renewal process.

David Schoen, a criminal defense attorney, told SaraACarter.com that the FISA process requires absolute scrutiny as the defendant, the person targeted by the warrant, is not represented by anyone due to the extraordinary secrecy of the process.

Schoen noted, if an “agent falsifies, materially alters with false information, or makes a material omission in documents relied on to authorize surveillance – and here it was to authorize the most intrusive kind of surveillance by the most secretive court in the land – then any further step in the process and any material obtained by surveillance from the point of his illegal conduct forward is arguably poisoned by the initial illegal materially false alteration or material omission.

“Moreover, while all courts rely completely on the integrity of the surveillance application and supporting documentation and on the agents presenting them, the FISC must by definition do so to an even greater degree because it is all presented ex parte and the entire process is shrouded in secrecy , but can impact on the privacy of American citizens to the greatest degree imaginable,” he added.

More importantly said Schoen, “the FISC has an express rule of procedure affirmatively requiring the immediate correction of any materially false statement or any material omission. Clearly no such correcting submission was made here.”

Making matters worse, Clinesmith was vehemently anti-Trump, raising significant questions of bias. He was removed in February, 2018, from the Russia investigation, in the same fashion former FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok, who headed the investigation into Trump’s campaign, was removed. Clinesmith’s anti-Trump text messages stated the “crazies have won” and “viva la resistance” in relation to Trump’s presidential victory.

Was Clinesmith a low level FBI attorney? Or did he play a significant role in the early investigation?
George Papadopolous, who was central to the FBI’s investigation into Trump and believes the FBI took a FISA out on him, said no.
On Monday, Papadopolous told Fox and Friends, that Clinesmith was the “attorney who interviewed me from the Department of Justice, I know the New York Times mentioned him as some sort of low level attorney for the DOJ, but I don’t think he was a low level attorney.”

“This individual brought an entire delegation from Washington D.C. to interview me in February, 2017 and we now know he, and some of the others who interviewed me are under criminal investigation,” Papadopolous added.

“So I think the report is not going to be as pleasant as many people think it’s going to be for the FBI and its probably going to lead into criminal prosecution that Durham is going to be taking over from him.”

Will the altered evidence collected by Clinesmith taint the rest of the evidence submitted to the court?

Clinesmith was caught. But what happens to the information the FBI collected and who else may have collected information regarding the targets:Papadopolous and Page both foreign policy advisors early on during the Trump campaign. Further, it would stand to reason that any information submitted on former Trump National Security Advisor Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, would also come under scrutiny as well if it was used in any way during the investigation.

Another question that lingers is the FBI’s relationship with its alleged confidential informant Halper, who was a paid contractor for the DOD. He also apparently sent reports to the FBI and those reports would be significant in Durham’s investigation, according to sources.

 

Halper’s reports may or may not have been used in obtaining the FISA, on Page and whose reports may now come into question by the Justice Department, said several sources familiar with the Office of Net Assessment and the FBI.

Horowitz’s report is expected to be hundreds of pages long and mostly unredacted.

If that is the case, the majority of information that has been requested by Republican lawmakers but has remained classified on the Russia investigation may be declassified in an effort to get the report out to the American public, according to sources.

A crucial piece of the classified documents would be any exculpatory evidence that wasn’t presented to the FISA court, according to a senior lawmaker. It would in effect, be evidence that would say there was no collusion between Trump and the Russians and may very well be the evidence collected by Halper during his interactions with Trump’s advisors.

In May, Trump gave Barr the authority to declassify the documents, which have been described as four major buckets by Republicans.

On December 9, Horowitz, whose office has remained tight lipped on the matter, is expected to release the report and he will testify before Congress two days later on Dec. 11.

end
These must be declassified to get to the bottom of the UkraineGate
John Solomon)

John Solomon: Everything Changes In The Ukraine Scandal If Trump Releases These Documents

Authored by John Solomon via JohnSolomonReports.com,

There are still wide swaths of documentation kept under wraps inside government agencies like the State Department that could substantially alter the public’s understanding of what has happened in the U.S.-Ukraine relationships now at the heart of the impeachment probe.

As House Democrats mull whether to pursue impeachment articles and the GOP-led Senate braces for a possible trial, here are 12 tranches of government documents that could benefit the public if President Trump ordered them released, and the questions these memos might answer.

  1. Daily intelligence reports from March through August 2019 on Ukraine’s new president Volodymyr Zelensky and his relationship with oligarchs and other key figures. What was the CIA, FBI and U.S. Treasury Department telling Trump and other agencies about Zelensky’s ties to oligarchs like Igor Kolomoisky, the former head of Privatbank, and any concerns the International Monetary Fund might have? Did any of these concerns reach the president’s daily brief (PDB) or come up in the debate around resolving Ukraine corruption and U.S. foreign aid? CNBCReuters and The Wall Street Journal all have done recent reporting suggesting there might have been intelligence and IMF concerns that have not been fully considered during the impeachment proceedings.
  2. State Department memos detailing conversations between former U.S. Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch and former Ukrainian Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko. He says Yovanovitch raised the names of Ukrainians she did not want to see prosecuted during their first meeting in 2016. She calls Lutsenko’s account fiction. But State Department officials admit the U.S. embassy in Kiev did pressure Ukrainian prosecutors not to target certain activists. Are there contemporaneous State Department memos detailing these conversations and might they illuminate the dispute between Lutsenko and Yovanovitch that has become key to the impeachment hearings?
  3. State Department memos on U.S. funding given to the George Soros-backed group the Anti-Corruption Action Centre. There is documentary evidence that State provided funding to this group, that Ukrainian prosecutor sought to investigate whether that aid was spent properly and that the U.S. embassy pressured Ukraine to stand down on that investigation. How much total did State give to this group? Why was a federal agency giving money to a Soros-backed group? What did taxpayers get for their money and were they any audits to ensure the money was spent properly? Were any of Ukrainian prosecutors’ concerns legitimate?
  4. The transcripts of Joe Biden’s phone calls and meetings with Ukraine’s president and prime minister from April 2014 to January 2017 when Hunter Biden served on the board of the natural gas company Burisma Holdings. Did Burisma or Hunter Biden ever come up in the calls? What did Biden say when he urged Ukraine to fire the prosecutor overseeing an investigation of Burisma? Did any Ukrainian officials ever comment on Hunter Biden’s role at the company? Was any official assessment done by U.S. agencies to justify Biden’s threat of withholding $1 billion in U.S. aid if Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin wasn’t fired?
  5. All documents from an Office of Special Counsel whistleblower investigation into unusual energy transactions in Ukraine. The U.S. government’s main whistleblower office is investigating allegations from a U.S Energy Department worker of possible wrongdoing in U.S.-supported Ukrainian energy business. Who benefited in the United States and Ukraine from this alleged activity? Did Burisma gain any benefits from the conduct described by the whistleblower? OSC has concluded there is a “substantial likelihood of wrongdoing” involved in these activities.
  6. All FBI, CIA, Treasury Department and State Department documents concerning possible wrongdoing at Burisma Holdings. What did the U.S. know about allegations of corruption at the Ukrainian gas company and the efforts by the Ukrainian prosecutors to investigate? Did U.S., Latvian, Cypriot or European financial authorities flag any suspicious transactions involving Burisma or Americans during the time that Hunter Biden served on its board? Were any U.S. agencies monitoring, assisting or blocking the various investigations? When Ukraine reopened the Burisma investigations in March 2019, what did U.S. officials do?
  7. All documents from 2015-16 concerning the decision by the State Department’s foreign aid funding arm, USAID, to pursue a joint project with Burisma Holdings. State official George Kent has testified he stopped this joint project because of concerns about Burisma’s corruption reputation. Did Hunter Biden or his American business partner Devon Archer have anything to do with seeking the project? What caused its abrupt end? What issues did Kent identify as concerns and who did he alert in the White House, State or other agencies?
  8. All cables, memos and documents showing State Department’s dealings with Burisma Holding representatives in 2015 and 2016. We now know that Ukrainian authorities escalated their investigation of Burisma Holdings in February 2016 by raiding the home of the company’s owner, Mykola Zlochevsky. Soon after, Burisma’s American representatives were pressing the State Department to help end the corruption allegations against the gas firm, specifically invoking Hunter Biden’s name. What did State officials do after being pressured by Burisma? Did the U.S. embassy in Kiev assist Burisma’s efforts to settle the corruption case against it? Who else in the U.S. government was being kept apprised?
  9. All contacts that the Energy Department, Justice Department or State Department had with Vice President Joe Biden’s office concerning Burisma Holdings, Hunter Biden or business associate Devon Archer. We now know that multiple State Department officials believed Hunter Biden’s association with Burisma created the appearance of a conflict of interest for the vice president, and at least one official tried to contact Joe Biden’s office to raise those concerns. What, if anything, did these Cabinet agencies tell Joe Biden’s office about the appearance concerns or the state of the various Ukrainian investigations into Burisma?
  10. All memos, emails and other documents concerning a possible U.S. embassy’s request in spring 2019 to monitor the social media activities and analytics of certain U.S.  media personalities considered favorable to President Trump. Did any such monitoring occur? Was it requested by the American embassy in Kiev? Who ordered it? Why did it stop? Were any legal concerns raised?
  11. All State, CIA, FBI and DOJ documents concerning efforts by individual Ukrainian government officials to exert influence on the 2016 U.S. election, including an anti-Trump Op-Ed written in August 2016 by Ukraine’s ambassador to Washington or efforts to publicize allegations against Paul Manafort. What did U.S. officials know about these efforts in 2016, and how did they react? What were these federal agencies’ reactions to a Ukrainian court decision in December 2018 suggesting some Ukrainian officials had improperly meddled in the 2016 election?
  12. All State, CIA, FBI and DOJ documents concerning contacts with a Democratic National Committee contractor named Alexandra Chalupa and her dealings with the Ukrainian embassy in Washington or other Ukrainian figures. Did anyone in these U.S. government agencies interview or have contact with Chalupa during the time the Ukraine embassy in Washington says she was seeking dirt in 2016 on Trump and Manafort?
end
House Judiciary committee sets the date for impeachment hearing next Wednesday
(zerohedge)

House Judiciary Committee Sets Date For Impeachment Hearing, Invites Trump To Testify

With interest (even among Democrats) in the impeachment process sliding, the House Judiciary Committee is set to take over the impeachment probe of President Trump next week, scheduling a Dec. 4 hearing.

As The Hill reports, behind Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.), the committee will hear from legal scholars as Democrats weigh whether the evidence turned up in their weeks-long impeachment inquiry warrants the drafting of articles aimed at removing the president from office.

The hearing, scheduled for next Wednesday, will focus on the definition of an impeachable offense and the formal application of the impeachment process. The panel will invite White House lawyers to attend and participate.

Dan Friedman

@dfriedman33

Nadler announces first Judiciary Committee impeachment hearing and tells Trump he can participate. https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/democrats.judiciary.house.gov/files/documents/2019-11-26%20JN%20Ltr%20to%20White%20House.pdf 

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This is good: Bloomberg journalists are demanding management reverse the ban on investigating their boss and democratic rivals
(zerohedge)

Bloomberg Journalists Demand Management Reverse Ban On Investigating Boss, Democratic Rivals

A union representing Bloomberg journalists has demanded that the publication lift its ban on investigating Michael Bloomberg and other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.

We are extremely alarmed by management’s decision to silence the journalists we represent at Bloomberg Industry Group, as well as the unrepresented journalists at Bloomberg News,” wrote the union in a late Monday letter.

We call on Bloomberg corporate management to rescind its policy and allow journalists throughout the Bloomberg family to do their jobs.

Guild at Bloomberg Industry Group@GuildatBIG

Our statement regarding ’s editorial decision not to investigate Democratic Presidential candidates@business @BBGIndustry @BLaw @environment @BGOV @tax

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The Guild believes journalists should not only be allowed – but encouraged – to thoroughly cover every single candidate as the profession demands in one of the most important elections in modern history,” the union added. “A journalist’s job is, above all, to cover the news and to serve as an independent monitor of power.”

The controversial decision announced by editor-in-chief John Micklethwait, was announced last week to the outlet’s 2,700 journalists and analysts. They will still cover polls, policies and how the Bloomberg campaign is doing, however investigative stories on Bloomberg or any other Democratic candidate are now banned. They will continue to investigate and report on the Trump administration.

Former Bloomberg politics news director Kathy Kiely told The Guardian that the new rules “relegate his political writers to stenography journalism … it’s not satisfying for journalists and it’s not satisfying for readers. I think people will go elsewhere for in-depth political coverage.”

Kiely’s advice is for Mike Bloomberg to step away from the company instead of undermining an organization “he worked so hard and spent so much money to build up,” adding that journalists at her former publication “are some of the hardest working in the industry. It is not an easy place. They deserve a hell of a lot better treatment than this. But I know they will continue to bust their asses to do great work, because *that’s* journalism.”

As Fox News notes, the ban has received criticism from both sides of the journalistic aisle.

“I am a paid subscriber to Bloomberg News because there are so many great journalists there doing amazing work but this is a real disservice to all of them,” journalist Judd Legum wrote on Twitter. “You can’t declare the biggest story of the next 12 months off limits.”

Judd Legum

@JuddLegum

This is absolutely indefensible journalistically.

You can’t have a media outlet that covers politics but has a policy of not investigating (which is another word for reporting) one or more candidates. https://twitter.com/farhip/status/1198645499433275394 

Paul Farhi

@farhip

Just in: Extraordinary statement from Bloomberg News Editor-In-Chief John Micklethwait about Bloomberg’s coverage plans of Mike Bloomberg’s candidacy: Bloomberg Editorial board suspended, no “investigation” of Mike, his family or foundation:

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Judd Legum

@JuddLegum

I am a paid subscriber to Bloomberg News because there are so many great journalists there doing amazing work but this is a real disservice to all of them.

You can’t declare the biggest story of the next 12 months off limits.

“Is this an early April fools joke? This decision makes a mockery of journalism. Their bosses actually ordered them to be fake news!” Media Research Center founder Brent Bozell wrote on Twitter.

Brent Bozell

@BrentBozell

Is this an early April fools joke? This decision makes a mockery of journalism. Their bosses actually ordered them to be fake news! https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/business/joseph-vazquez/2019/11/25/bloomberg-news-wont-investigate-owner-rivals-will 

Bloomberg News Won’t Investigate Owner, Will Investigate Trump

Liberal billionaire and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg decided to toss his hat into the already-crowded Democratic Party presidential primary race all at the expense of the credibility

newsbusters.org

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Fed Repo Action Oversubscribed in Clamor for Year-End Funds

Market participants submitted $49.05 billion in bids for the Fed’s 42-day term repo operation, which matures Jan. 6, 2020. That was more than the $25 billion on offer. This was the first of three term operations to provide funding past the year-end period. The others will be held in the coming weeks…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-25/fed-repo-action-to-give-funding-through-year-end-oversubscribed

Now, Schiff is looking for a way out of his impeachment imbroglio.

 

Schiff says he wants to speak with constituents before deciding on impeachment

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/471824-schiff-wants-to-discuss-with-constituents-before-deciding-on-impeachment?amp&jwsource=twi

 

@ElmaAksalic: Chairman Adam Schiff says the committees are preparing a report summarizing the evidence they have found so far in the impeachment inquiry.  The report will be transmitted to House Judiciary Committee soon after Congress returns from the Thanksgiving recess [We opined this would be the next step in Monday’s missive.]

 

House Democrat backs down from impeachment: ‘I don’t see the value of kicking him out of office’

Democratic Rep. Brenda Lawrence of Michigan… would ask her caucus to censure him instead.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house-democrat-backs-down-from-impeachment-i-dont-see-the-value-of-kicking-him-out-of-office

 

Why, Now, Is Anti-Trumper Adam Schiff Suddenly Hedging His Bets About Impeachment?

The Dems are hemorrhaging campaign cash, are not happy with the polling underperformance of the impeachment inquiry in the Dem-led House, and are scared to death the entire rush toward impeachment could backfire on them…

https://www.lifezette.com/2019/11/why-now-is-anti-trumper-adam-schiff-suddenly-hedging-his-bets-about-impeachment/

 

Interest in impeachment inquiry dips among Democratic voters

Fell 5 percentage points to 73 percent in the latest nationwide surveyhttp://hill.cm/wP1kL8S

 

@ByronYork: Linked article is ‘Will Trump Be Impeached?’ published in Vanity Fair November 14, 2016. Six days after Trump elected president, 67 days before taking office.   https://t.co/gSxaeG0fIS

 

Soros-Linked ‘Dark Money’ Group Is Funding Ads Urging Vulnerable Republicans to Impeach Trump, Records Show – One of Soros’s primary donation vehicles, the Open Society Policy Center, has given $4.5 million to the fund between 2012 and 2017, according to their Form 990 annual disclosures…

https://dailycaller.com/2019/11/22/soros-dark-money-impeachment/

 

Solomon: A dozen document troves that could change the Ukraine scandal if Trump released them

https://johnsolomonreports.com/a-dozen-document-troves-that-could-change-the-ukraine-scandal-if-trump-released-them/

 

@paulsperry_: Senate investigators intend to demand ICIG Atkinson turn over all records generated from his office’s “preliminary review” of the “whistleblower’s” complaint, including evidence and “indicia” of his “political bias” in favor of Biden

 

New York’s criminal justice reforms could allow suspects to visit crime scenes

Suspects could be allowed to roam free, return to the scene of a crime, even if it’s your own home… “So that the defendant and his representatives can return to it, take photographs, take measurements, and stuff along those lines,” Stockdale said.

    Stockdale says if the crime happened in your home, and the defendant is granted permission to return to the scene, you could be arrested if you don’t comply… [You can’t make this up!]

https://cbs6albany.com/news/local/new-yorks-criminal-justice-reforms-could-allow-suspects-to-visit-crime-scenes

 

—–

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

There will be no commentary on Thursday as it is USA Thanksgiving.

 

 

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