NOV 29//GOLD UP $9.85 TO $1464.00//SILVER UP 4 CENTS TO $17.01//AT THE GOLD COMEX: FIRST DAY NOTICE: A MASSIVE 37.8 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING//IN SILVER: A HUGE 23 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR DELIVERY//ANOTHER STRONG EX. FOR PHYSICAL IN GOLD OF ALMOST 7,000 CONTRACTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THIS SIDE OF THE POND//PROTESTS CONTINUE IN FRANCE//PROTESTS CONTINUE IN IRAQ WITH THE PRIME MINISTER RESIGNING//PROTESTS IN EUROPE AT AMAZON AS WORKERS STRIKE ON BLACK FRIDAY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1464.00 UP $9.85    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.01 UP 4 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) : 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1464.50

 

silver:  $17.01

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/1320

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,453.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/27/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/02/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 130
072 H GOLDMAN 187
132 C SG AMERICAS 128
152 C DORMAN TRADING 3
323 C HSBC 13
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 4
357 C WEDBUSH 4
365 C ED&F MAN CAPITA 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 54
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 206
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 24 37
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 1278 102
686 C INTL FCSTONE 4 15
690 C ABN AMRO 132
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 9
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 13
773 C G.H. FINANCIALS 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 34
880 C CITIGROUP 32
880 H CITIGROUP 165
905 C ADM 12 45
____________________________________________________________________________________________

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 11/27/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 11/27/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:34:38
TOTAL: 1,320 1,320
MONTH TO DATE: 1,320

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 1320 NOTICE(S) FOR 132,000 OZ (4.1057 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1320 NOTICES FOR 132,000 OZ  (4.1057 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

1085 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,425,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1085 for 5,425,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7512 UP 160 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7740 UP 326

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 3176 CONTRACTS FROM 213,056 DOWN TO 206,427 WITH THE 8 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER  FROM THE  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR NOV 0,; DEC  1686 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1686 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1686 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1686 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.43 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 8 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.665     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

23.450   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

WEDNESDAY, THE CROOKS ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER ATTEMPTED  RAID ON SILVER AND GOLD AS WE ARE ONE DAY AWAY FROM LBMA/OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY// FRIDAY… THEY AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR  SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE ( IT WAS DOWN 8 CENTS ). ALSO OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A GOOD 1490 CONTRACTS. OR 7.45 MILLION OZ…..

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV:

42,720 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 42,720 CONTRACTS) OR 213.60 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2136 CONTRACTS OR 10.68 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  213.60 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 30.51% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,084.34   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3176, WITH THE 8 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1656 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 1490 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1686 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 3176  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.97 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.033 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 148% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1085 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,425,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  23.450 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 120 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING CLOSER TO THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 669,388. THE TINY GAIN IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE $6.10 PRICING LOSS ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6858 CONTRACTS:

NOV 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  200 CONTRACTS; FEB: 6658 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 669,388,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6978 CONTRACTS: 120 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6858 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 6978 CONTRACTS OR 697,800 OZ OR 21.70 TONNES.  WEDNESDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $6.10 IN GOLD TRADING.

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE SURPRISINGLY  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 21.70  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED AND FAILED. THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $6.10) .THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AND WILL MORPH INTO SILVER AS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

DUE TO THE FACT THAT DECEMBER IS AN ACTIVE MONTH SPREADING ACTIVITY IN SILVER WAS ALSO ORCHESTRATED BY OUR CROOKED OFFICIAL/BANKER SECTOR ALONG WITH GOLD..

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 182,926 CONTRACTS OR 18,292,600 oz OR 568.20 TONNES (20 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9146 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 568.20 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 568.20/3550 x 100% TONNES =16.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5726.25  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 120 DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK WEDNESDAY($6.10)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6858 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6858 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN STRONG  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 6978 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6858 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 120 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 21.70 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.10 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  1320 notice(s) filed upon for 132000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///0.88 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC

NOV 29/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 895.60 tonnes

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3176 CONTRACTS from 213,056 DOWN TO 206,427 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR NOV. 0; FOR DEC  0: FOR MAR: 1686   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1686 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 3176  CONTRACTS TO THE 1686 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED LOSS OF 1490 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.24 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 23.450 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1686 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.71 POINTS OR 0.61%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 547.24 POINTS OR 2.03%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 115.23 POINTS OR 0.49%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0244 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0244 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0262 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea

A holiday treat for Donald Trump:  North Korea launches missiles as the nuclear talks are stalled

(zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Daniel Lacalle on the failures on Abenomics

(Daniel Lacalle)

3C  CHINA

i)China/Hong Kong/USA/Thursday morning

This may not go over well with the USA: China may put USA lawmakers on a “no entry list” in retaliation for the Hong Kong bill

It sure does not seem that we are going to get a trade deal at all

(zerohedge)

ii)China/Thursday afternoon

Trump calls Beijing bluff and he may have won..China so far as does nothing.
(zerohedge)

iii)China

Because of the Pigo ebola virus there are not enough pigs in the world to fill the ends of China
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)France

Protests continue in France as farmers descend on Paris as citizens (farmers) revolt against globalist government policies they say are ruining their standard of living

(Watson/Summit news)

ii)UK

My goodness, this money printing company has a monopoly on printing paper money but they too are going down
(zerohedge)

iii)ECB/EU

my goodness!! what is this world coming to:  Analysts in Europe are stunned as new ECB head honcho demands a key role in climate change
(zerohedge)

iv)Europe/Amazon

Mutiny on the Bounty at Amazon Europe:  thousands protest working conditions as they stage a walkout on Black Friday..cool!!
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN

this was some protest:  over 700 banks and 140 government buildings were torched by protesters.

As far as the banks are concerned, replacing the burnt out riyals is no problem. It is a problem for them with respect to the uSA dollars that the banks house.  They are already in short supply and  now, the foreign stuff that they need to pay in dollars will be a huge problem for them

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAQ/IRAN

Iraqi’s torch another Iranian consulate in Iraq as tensions between these two neighbours intensifies

(zerohedge)

iii)IRAQ

Chaos inside Iraq as the Prime Minister announces his resignation after 40 protesters killed
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)Thursday morning report on global markets:  they tumbles as trade fears again flare up plus the Hong Kong bill signing

(zerohedge)

ii)SWEDEN

This is what happens when you open the floodgates to Muslim immigrants..there culture is just not the same as Nordic nations.
(Watson/Summit News)

iii)Figures suggest that auto sales fro around the globe are expected to crash more than that recorded during 2008-2009

(zerohedge)

iv)String of attacks rock the globe on this Black Friday: at the Hague, at London’s Bridge and in Rio Brazil

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

Crude crashes as the Saudi become intolerant to OPEC cheating

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)Agnico eagle are very good miners:  their CEO just said that there are not too many new gold mines coming forth

(Stankiewicz/CNBC/GATA)

ii)India is purchasing massive amounts of dollars keeping a lid on Rupee’s value

(Goyal/Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)A must read.

Alasdair Macleod writes that the USA trade policy will destroy the value of the USA dollar and create havoc for markets

(Alasdair Macleod)

iv)Slovakia owns 31 tonnes at the Bank of England and without a doubt all of this gold has been leased out. Now politicians see what poland is doing and they want they gold back to their mother country

(Bloomberg/GATA)

v)India is said to import at least 25% more gold than officially reported due to smuggling etc

(the Hindu/GATA)

vi Quite an interesting story on the mechanics of how poland repatriated 100 tonnes onto its shores

(ZEROHEDGE)

vii)Interesting:  quite a bet: a mystery buyer of gold is betting that our ancient metal of kings climbs well above 4,000 per oz

(Mish Shedlock)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA CONSUMERS ARE NOW ABANDONING BRICKS AND MORTAR AS THEY BUY ON LINE

(ZEROHEDGE)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 120 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 669,523 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $6.10 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6858 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR NOV; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 200 ; FEB: 6658  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  658 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 6978 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6858 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A TINY SIZED 120 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE WITH THE CONSIDERABLE RAID INITIATED, AS IT FELL BY $6.10. AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 6978 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  6978 CONTRACTS OR 697800 OZ OR 21.70 TONNES.

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we had a smaller than expected loss and thus a much higher than expected number of longs that will stand to delivery in December.  We lost only 30,509 contracts and thus the initial amount of gold oz standing for December is as follows:

12,168 notices  x 100 oz per notice  = 1,216,800 oz or 37.84 tonnes

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI RISE by 2125 contracts UP to 4181 which is extremely high for a January delivery month.. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a huge 22,378 gain in contracts up to 491,975.

 

 

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY:

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE LAST YR: 27.57 TONNES OF GOLD INITIALLY STOOD vs 37.84 tonnes today.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

 

WE HAD 1320 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  132000 OZ. (4.1057 TONNES)

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3176CONTRACTS FROM 213,056 DOWN TO 206,427 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//WEDNESDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a loss of 11,301 contracts down to 4690. Thus by definition the initial amount of silver ounces sanding in this very active delivery month of December is as follows:

 

4690 contracts x 5000 oz per contract  =  23,450 million oz which is very strong

 

After December we have the non active month of January and here we see that we gained 145 contracts up to 986. MARCH  saw an increase of 7406 contracts up to 161,511.  March is a very active month for silver.

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE LAST YR: 17.53 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

VS 23.450 MILLION OZ TODAY

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 1085 notice(s) filed for 5,425,000 OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 276,838  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  345,667  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

NOV 29/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1320 notice(s)
132,000 OZ
(4.1057 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
10848 contracts
(1,084,800 oz)
33.74 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1320 notices
132,000 oz
 4.1057 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii)everybody else:  nil

 

 

 

total gold deposits:

 

nil

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawals; 0  oz

We had 5 adjustments

i) Out of Delaware: 391.175 oz was adjusted from the dealer and this settles into the account of Delaware and a deemed settlement

ii) Out of HSBC: 4950.943 oz was adjusted from the dealer HSBC into the customer account of HSBC and a deemed settlement

total deemed settlement.166 tonnes

iii) Out of Brinks:  401.804 oz was adjusted out of customer account and into the dealer account

iv) Out of Int. Delaware: 122,205.984 oz was adjusted out of the customer account into the dealer account.

You will recall a massive amount of “kilobars” entered the customer Int. Delaware  and now this amount is adjusted into the dealer account

v) Out of Scotia:  50,232.05 oz was adjusted out of the customer account into the dealer Scotia.  Last week we had a huge amount of kilobars enter the customer account of Scotia and now this is adjusted up to the dealer account

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1320 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1320) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (12,168 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1320 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,230,700 OZ OR 37.84 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1320 x 100 oz)  + (12,168)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1320 x 100 oz )which equals 1,216,800 oz standing OR 37.84 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 32.15  TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              37.84 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 11.3124 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 113.82  tonnes

Thus:

113.82 tonnes of delivery –

11.3124 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 102.51 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 32.152 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1271,250.085 oz or  39.54 tonnes 
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 103,369,64 oz (32.152 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989) 
total registered pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,828,026.534 oz 274.59 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.
DECREASE IN GOLD OZ PLEDGED:  503.01 OZ ATTRIBUTED TO  JPMORGAN??? from an adjustment????

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

NOV 29 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
889,230.060 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
485,604.950 oz
BRINKS

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
605,560.200 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
1085
CONTRACT(S)
(5,425,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3605 contracts
 18,025,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1085 contracts

5,425,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

i) Into Brinks: 485,604.950 oz

 

 

total dealer deposits: 485,604.950  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil

 

ii) Into CNT:  605,560.200 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.4% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/313.4 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  605,560.200  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out Scotia: 289,127.630 oz

ii) out of CNT: 600,102.430 oz

 

 

total withdrawals; 889,230.060  oz

We had 5 adjustment: and they were  a doozy:

i) first: 1036.500 oz is adjusted out of JPMorgan customer account as an accounting error

and ii) through v) all adjusted out of the customer account and this lands into their respective dealer account

ii)  14,985.500 oz from Brinks

iii) 49,952.13 oz from Delaware

iii)  2,503,736.480 oz form BNS

iv)  2,923,498.900 oz from CNT

total adjusted out of customer to dealer; 5,392,231.749  oz

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.777 million

total dealer + customer silver:  313.407 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 1085 contract(s) FOR 5,425,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1085 x 5,000 oz = 5,425,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (4690) and the number of notices served upon today 1085 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 1085 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (4690)- number of notices served upon today (1085) x 5000 oz equals 23,450,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 1085 notice(s) filed for 5,425,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  70,509 CONTRACTS //volume increases due to raid

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 92,175 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 92,175 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 460 million  OZ 65.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.57% ((NOV 29/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.44% to NAV (NOV 26/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.57%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.48 TRADING 14.07///DISCOUNT  2.81

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

 

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NOV 29/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 895.60 tonnes

*IN LAST 714 TRADING DAYS: 40.77 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 614 TRADING DAYS: A NET 126.28 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

 

 

NOV 29:  SLV INVENTORY

370.481 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.94/ and libor 6 month duration 1.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.92%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.03

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Eastern European Nations Buy and Repatriate Gold Due To Growing Risks To Euro and Dollar

Queen Elizabeth tours a gold vault during a visit to the Bank of England
Queen Elizabeth tours a gold vault during a visit to the Bank of England

◆ Prudent leaders in Eastern European countries are repatriating their national gold reserves and diversifying into gold due to geopolitical risks and monetary risks posed to the dollar, euro and pound

Slovakia has joined China, Russia and a host of countries buying gold or seeking to repatriate their gold from the Bank of England and the New York Federal Reserve

◆ “Brexit and the risk of a global economic crisis put Slovak gold stored in Britain in a dangerous situation …”

Serbia, Poland and Hungary have boosted their safe haven gold bullion reserves to protect their foreign exchange holdings and hedge growing monetary and systemic risks

◆ Poland’s government completed the repatriation of 100 tons of gold bullion; 8,000 gold bars worth $5 billion were moved by G4S from the Bank of England to the Polish central bank

via Bloomberg:

Gold is all that nationalist leaders in Europe’s east can talk about these days.

Just this week, Poland’s government touted its economic might after completing the repatriation of 100 tons of the metal. Over in Hungary, anti-immigrant Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been ramping up holdings of the safe-haven asset to boost the security of his reserves.

The gold rush mirrors steps by Russia and China to diversify reserves exceeding $3 trillion away from the dollar amid flaring geopolitical tensions with the U.S. Motivations in Europe’s ex-communist wing, however, can vary.

Take the latest example. Former Slovak Premier Robert Fico, who has a shot at returning to power, urges parliament to compel the central bank into bringing home gold stocks stored in the U.K.

The reason? Sometimes your international partners can betray you, Fico said, citing a 1938 pact by France, Britain, Italy and Germany allowing Adolf Hitler to annex a chunk what was then Czechoslovakia, and — more recently — the Bank of England’s refusal to return Venezuela’s gold stock over political differences.

“You can hardly trust even the closest allies after the Munich Agreement,” Fico told reporters. “I guarantee that if something happens, we won’t see a single gram of this gold. Let’s do it as quickly as possible.”

His comments came despite the U.K. being one of Slovakia’s closest allies after the Soviet empire crumbled, helping ease the path to European Union and NATO.

Fico said Brexit and the risk of a global economic crisis put Slovak gold stored in Britain in a dangerous situation.

Instead, he said he wanted to demonstrate the strength of his nation’s $586 billion economy — the largest in the EU’s east. Poland has doubled its gold holdings in the past two years and now has the region’s biggest stockpile.

Hungary, though, has been an active buyer too. Gold reserves surged 10-fold last year, setting the clamor for the metal in the countries around it in motion.

Serbia’s strongman leader Aleksandar Vucic took note, ordering the central bank to boost reserves and prompting the purchase of nine tons in October. Vucic said last week that more should be bought because “we see in which direction the crisis in the world is moving.”

The biggest nation to emerge from the breakup of Yugoslavia still keeps some of its gold abroad, the central bank said by email. The region is buying more of the metal because of global uncertainty over trade and politics, Brexit and low interest rates, it said.

Romania had also sought to relocate some of its gold reserves from the U.K., but those plans were put on hold when the government behind them was ousted in October.

For the no-nonsense leaders that have come to dominate eastern Europe, the main benefit may be the message to voters that hefty holdings of the precious metal conveys.

“Gold is a symbol,” said Vuk Vukovic, a political economist in Zagreb. “When states purchase it, people everywhere see it as a sign of economic sovereignty.”

via Bloomberg

Watch Podcast Here

NEWS & COMMENTARY

Gold little changed amid trade deal doubts; set for worst month in 3 years

Stocks shy from breaking new highs as trade mood darkens

Euro zone inflation accelerates more than expected in Nov

Japan’s factory output posts largest fall in almost two years

Current bond yield stagnation mirrors late-1800s ‘long depression,’ economist suggests

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

28-Nov-19 1457.55 1454.65, 1127.27 1127.35 & 1323.60 1321.84
27-Nov-19 1459.80 1454.35, 1134.12 1129.74 & 1326.23 1322.30
26-Nov-19 1457.65 1454.65, 1133.76 1131.86 & 1322.96 1321.11
25-Nov-19 1459.45 1458.40, 1133.41 1130.84 & 1325.33 1323.35
22-Nov-19 1471.30 1464.45, 1143.05 1140.22 & 1330.35 1326.06
19-Nov-19 1464.90 1468.45, 1132.37 1134.23 & 1323.68 1325.86
18-Nov-19 1458.40 1467.65, 1124.86 1132.59 & 1318.10 1325.88
15-Nov-19 1465.60 1466.90, 1138.04 1136.41 & 1329.59 1327.84
14-Nov-19 1467.65 1466.65, 1141.39 1142.52 & 1334.24 1333.18
13-Nov-19 1463.45 1462.90, 1138.86 1140.62 & 1328.23 1328.46

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Agnico eagle are very good miners:  their CEO just said that there are not too many new gold mines coming forth

(Stankiewicz/CNBC/GATA)

Not many new gold mines on the way, Agnico-Eagle CEO Boyd says

 Section: 

By Kevin Stankiewicz
CNBC, New York
Wednesday, November 27, 2019

While demand for gold remains strong, building mines has grown more difficult over the last decade, the CEO of a Canadian miner told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday.

“It’s a lot tougher now than it was 10 or 15 years ago,” Sean Boyd said on “Mad Money.”

Several factors contribute to the increasing difficulty, including the geographic realities of opportune locations, Boyd said.

… For the remainder of the commentary: …

 

The deposits that are being found now … are found in parts of the world that lack infrastructure, are in parts of the world where countries may not want you there,” Boyd said. “That’s why it’s also getting more challenging to find deposits.”

Even if those challenges are met, there are more hurdles on the other side, Boyd explained, pointing to “mostly permitting” associated with tougher environmental regulations.

“That’s another thing which limits supply. The lead time to build these assets is a lot longer, the capital required to build them a lot larger,” he said. “That just makes it more difficult.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/27/agnico-eagle-ceo-there-wont-be-substanti…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

India is purchasing massive amounts of dollars keeping a lid on Rupee’s value

(Goyal/Bloomberg/GATA)

Indian rupee is getting crushed by its own central bank

 Section: 

By Kartik Goyal
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, November 27, 2019

The Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to support the flagging economy are turning out to be a bane for the rupee.

The currency is the worst performer in emerging Asia this quarter, and analysts say that’s because the central bank is mopping up dollars gushing into local stocks and bonds.

… 

The RBI bought  about $18 billion of foreign exchange since the end of September, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics. While the purchases have propelled reserves to a record, the rupee has fallen about 0.7% since Sept. 30.

Weakness in the rupee despite robust inflows is seen as a sign the central bank wants to curb a sharp appreciation in the currency that can hurt exports. With slew of data pointing to weak economic activity, boosting shipments is high on agenda for the government. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-28/rbi-casts-pall-over-i…

end

A must read.

Alasdair Macleod writes that the USA trade policy will destroy the value of the USA dollar and create havoc for markets

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: U.S. trade policy will destroy the dollar

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney.com, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, November 28, 2019

America’s tariffs against China are already showing signs of undermining the global economy and will create a funding crisis for the federal government when it leads to foreigners no longer buying U.S. Treasury debt and selling down their dollar holdings. A subversive attempt by America to divert global portfolio investment from China by destabilizing Hong Kong will force China into a Plan B to fund its infrastructure plans, which could involve actively selling down her dollar reserves and hastening the introduction of a new crypto-based trade settlement currency.

The U.S. budget deficit then will be financed entirely by monetary inflation. Furthermore, the turn of the credit cycle, made more destructive by trade tariffs, is driving the global and U.S. economies into a slump, accelerating all indebted governments’ dependency on inflationary financing. The result is that America’s trade policies have been instrumental in hastening the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, leading to its destruction. …… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/america-s-trade-po…

END

Slovakia owns 31 tonnes at the Bank of England and without a doubt all of this gold has been leased out. Now politicians see what poland is doing and they want they gold back to their mother country

(Bloomberg/GATA)

U.K. can’t be trusted with Slovakia’s gold, country’s top party leader says

 Section: 

And can Slovakia’s own central bank be trusted with it? The bank’s spokesman says the bank is “actively trading” Slovakia’s 32 tonnes.

* * *

By Radoslav Tomek
Bloomberg News
Thursday, November 28, 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-28/u-k-can-t-be-trusted-…

Slovakia’s former premier said today parliament should force the central bank to bring back the nation’s gold stored in the United Kingdom as history has shown that allies “can hardly” be trusted.

Ex-Premier Robert Fico, who chairs the biggest political party in Slovakia, said his formation is seeking to hold a special parliamentary session on the issue. The gold isn’t safe in the U.K. because of Brexit and a possible global economic crisis, he said

“You can hardly trust even the closest allies after the Munich Agreement,” he told reporters, referring to a 1938 pact by France, the U.K., Italy, and Germany, which allowed Adolf Hitler to annex a part of Czechoslovakia. “I guarantee that if something happens, we won’t see a single gram of this gold. Let’s do it as quickly as possible.”

Three months before general elections take place in Slovakia, Fico is riding on a wave of nationalist sentiment that has gripped many countries in the European Union’s east, including neighboring Poland and Hungary.

Central bank spokesman Peter Majer declined to comment on Fico’s comments. Slovakia, which uses the euro, has 31.7 metric tonnes of gold worth 1.3 billion euros ($1.4 billion) and it’s actively trading it, he said.

* * *

END

India is said to import at least 25% more gold than officially reported due to smuggling etc

(the Hindu/GATA)

India said to import 25% more gold than officially reported

 Section: 

India Is One of the Largest Gold Smuggling Hubs, Report Says

From The Hindu, Chennai, India
Thursday, November 28, 2019

International non-government organisation IMPACT, in its latest report, says India has become one of the largest gold smuggling hubs in the world.

Gold possibly tied to conflict, human rights abuses and corruption in Africa and South America is entering legal international markets through India, the Canada-headquartered organisation said in a statement.

… 

The organization said it had uncovered how the country imported about 1,000 tonnes of gold per year — a quarter more than the official figures indicated. “Some enter as legal imports thanks to falsified paperwork,” it said.

“Actors across India’s gold industry are failing to do proper checks on where gold comes from to ensure it’s not financing conflict and human rights violations,” according to Joanne Lebert, IMPACT’s executive director. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-one-of-the-largest-gold-smu…

* * *

END

Ronan Manly correctly aks where is the other 123 tonnes of Polish gold stored at the Bnk of England

(Ronan Manly/Bullionstar)

Ronan Manly: So where’s the rest of Poland’s gold, really?

 Section: 

8:55p ET Thursday, November 28, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly tonight takes a closer looks at Poland’s repatriation of 100 tonnes of its gold reserves from the Bank of England. He reveals that it was an elaborate operation involving eight air cargo flights of a thousand and heavy police security.

But, Manly asks, are the remaining 123 tonnes of Polish gold reserves really secure at the Bank of England, or are some of them leased or encumbered in some other way? He concludes that an audit should be commissioned to settle the question.

… 

Manly’s analysis is headlined “Polish Central Bank Airlifts 8,000 Gold Bars (100 Tonnes) from London to Warsaw” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/polish-central-bank-airlif…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Quite an interesting story on the mechanics of how poland repatriated 100 tonnes onto its shores

(ZEROHEDGE)

How $5 Billion In Physical Gold Was Secretly Moved From London To Poland

Yesterday we reported that over the past few months, 100 tons, or some 8,000 gold bars, were secretly transported from the Bank of England’s vaults in London to Poland. But how did this carefully planned transport take place happen? G4S explains how it managed one of the biggest movements of gold between global central banks in just eight trips, whereas it took the Bundesbank just about 5 years to repatriate 674 tons of gold from New York and Paris.

In the early hours of the morning on November 22, 2019, four G4S trucks raced from a secret facility northwest of London carrying a special cargo. They were accompanied by a police escort, with a helicopter flying overhead. Lights flashed as they drove to a London airport, where 20 heavy, wooden boxes were carefully loaded and tied down in a Boeing 737 freighter plane.

“It was the eighth time we had made the trip, in the middle of the night,” Paul Holt, General Manager of G4Si in Europe (North and South), Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States, said. “It was all very secretive, and extremely important it was done well.” The boxes were full of gold bars, bound for Poland.

The covert mission

Over the eight trips, G4Si helped transport 100 tonnes of gold – worth approximately $4.7 billion – from London’s Bank of England to the Narodowy Bank Polski, Poland’s central bank. On the UK side, 8,000 bars were carefully counted, prepared and packaged at a purpose-built G4S gold storage facility in London. They were then loaded into high-tech armored trucks.

“The movements of the gold were meticulously planned in coordination with everyone, including the police, the Bank of England, the Narodowy Bank Polski and G4Si,” John Lennox, Operations Director for G4S Cash Solutions UK, said.

“Given the sensitivity this operation, we needed to be prepared for anything. Plans can change at short notice. Having a strong team, flexible and professional drivers, and making sure everyone was regularly updated meant the operation was a complete success.”

In the middle of the night, the trucks, escorted by police and helicopters, arrived at the London airport. The bars were then airlifted to two airports in Poland, where they were taken, under another full police escort, to the country’s central bank vaults.

They were London Good Delivery bars, a standard issue bar weighing 12.5kg each, stamped with a serial number and marker identifying the refinery at which they were produced.

G4Si has been transporting valuable commodities like golddiamonds and fine art – for governments, museums, banks and mining companies all over the world for more than three decades. It has more than 250 specialist staff, a secure reach over 130 countries, and risk mitigation systems that ensure cargo is safe at every stage of the journey.

One G4Si employee who accompanied the gold on two of the trips said: “This is one of the biggest private movements of gold between banks in the world.”

“It involved a huge amount of planning in a short period of time,” he said.

“We liaised with police forces, representatives from both central banks, arranged insurance – it’s $5bn worth of gold, after all – and made sure the whole operation was secure, safe, and efficient.

When the plane landed in Poland, two G4Si staff were greeted by an elite force of police officers. The gold was loaded into three armored vehicles, which were driven by a full motorcade to vaults in undisclosed locations. “Every precaution was taken to ensure the gold arrived safely,” the G4Si employee said. “We stopped at no traffic lights. G4Si took on the risk and liability of the entire transfer, until the gold was inside the Polish vaults and verified to be the right bars.”

Wartime gold

In the days after the outbreak of World War II, Poland arranged for its entire reserves of gold to be evacuated. On the evening of September 4, 1939, about 80 tonnes of gold bullion, along with other assets and banknotes, were sent on a journey that took them through Romania, Turkey, Africa, France and New York. Years later, in 1943, Poland’s national reserve was split into three and stored at the Bank of Canada in Ottawa, the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, and the Bank of England, in London.

Earlier this year, the Central Bank of Poland announced it would purchase 100 tonnes of gold, bringing its reserves to 228.6 tonnes.

Julian Haskard, Managing Director of G4Si, said this was a historic day in the gold industry. “With increasing geopolitical insecurity, this is not a surprising move,” he said.

END

Interesting:  quite a bet: a mystery buyer of gold is betting that our ancient metal of kings climbs well above 4,000 per oz

(Mish Shedlock)

 

Mystery Buyer Makes Huge Options Bet On Gold Hitting $4000

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

An unknown person or hedge fund bought 5,000 options on gold hitting $4,000 an ounce by June 2021.

On Wednesday, an unknown buyer made a $1.75 Million Options Bet That Gold Would Triple to $4,000.

The gold options market saw $1.75 million in block trades betting the precious metal could almost triple in more than a year, surpassing the record.

Around noon in New York Wednesday, 5,000 lots of a gold option giving the holder the right to buy the precious metal at $4,000 an ounce in June 2021 changed hands. The bets were sold at $3.50 an ounce.

“It’s like 18-month term life insurance; what will the world look like if gold is at $4,000,” Tai Wong, the head of metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets, said in an email. “They are hoping for a quick violent move,” he said, referring to the people who bought the call options.

Gold Headed to $4000?

For the call buyer, it’s not a matter of gold hitting $4,000 but rather gold hitting $4,000 by June 2021.

Of course one would not have to hold the options all the way through.

If gold suddenly spiked by $1,000 right away perhaps the entity cold sell the options for $15 or more at least tripling the bet. Otherwise these options will quickly decay.

Let’s assume the options are held to the bitter end.

Returns On Options Held Full Term

 

Return Synopsis

  • At a June 2021 price of $4,000 or less, the call buyer will lose $1.75 million.
  • Between $4,000.01 and $4003.49 the call buyer will lose some but not all of the bet.
  • At precisely $4003.50 the call buyer breaks even
  • At $4,000 the call buyer nets $48.25 million ($50 million minus the initial $1.75 million bet).
  • At $5,000 the call buyer nets $498.25 million ($500 million minus the initial $1.75 million bet).

The most likely thing, by far, in any time frame is the buyer losses $1.75 million.

end

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

end

Interesting:  quite a bet: a mystery buyer of gold is betting that our ancient metal of kings climbs well above 4,000 per oz

(Mish Shedlock)

 

Mystery Buyer Makes Huge Options Bet On Gold Hitting $4000

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

An unknown person or hedge fund bought 5,000 options on gold hitting $4,000 an ounce by June 2021.

On Wednesday, an unknown buyer made a $1.75 Million Options Bet That Gold Would Triple to $4,000.

The gold options market saw $1.75 million in block trades betting the precious metal could almost triple in more than a year, surpassing the record.

Around noon in New York Wednesday, 5,000 lots of a gold option giving the holder the right to buy the precious metal at $4,000 an ounce in June 2021 changed hands. The bets were sold at $3.50 an ounce.

“It’s like 18-month term life insurance; what will the world look like if gold is at $4,000,” Tai Wong, the head of metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets, said in an email. “They are hoping for a quick violent move,” he said, referring to the people who bought the call options.

Gold Headed to $4000?

For the call buyer, it’s not a matter of gold hitting $4,000 but rather gold hitting $4,000 by June 2021.

Of course one would not have to hold the options all the way through.

If gold suddenly spiked by $1,000 right away perhaps the entity cold sell the options for $15 or more at least tripling the bet. Otherwise these options will quickly decay.

Let’s assume the options are held to the bitter end.

Returns On Options Held Full Term

 

Return Synopsis

  • At a June 2021 price of $4,000 or less, the call buyer will lose $1.75 million.
  • Between $4,000.01 and $4003.49 the call buyer will lose some but not all of the bet.
  • At precisely $4003.50 the call buyer breaks even
  • At $4,000 the call buyer nets $48.25 million ($50 million minus the initial $1.75 million bet).
  • At $5,000 the call buyer nets $498.25 million ($500 million minus the initial $1.75 million bet).

The most likely thing, by far, in any time frame is the buyer losses $1.75 million.


* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0244/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0262   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 17.71 POINTS OR 0.61%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 547.24 POINTS OR 2.03%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 115.23 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.42/Euro FALLS TO 1.0995

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.07/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.58/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.03 and Brent: 62.86

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.37%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.24% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.61: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.44

3k Gold at $1456.20 silver at: 16.95   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.17

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.58 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0041 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1003 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.37%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.76% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.18%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7508..

Futures Flat On Lack Of “Trade Deal Optimism”; Traders Puzzled By Sudden Hang Seng Tumble

Futures were caught  in the narrow range in which they traded for much of Thanksgiving Day holiday amid a lack of both trade deal optimism but more importantly, a lack of an actual retaliatory act from China which appears satisfied to jawbone in response to the passage of HK law,  but is unwilling to do anything else to risk the trade deal as reported overnight.

 

And with the failure to break out to fresh highs, world shares also slipped on Friday as the MSCI World index strained for a record high, with investor nerves from Asia to Europe frayed over how or when the United States and China can agree a truce in their damaging trade war. The MSCI All Country world index again fell 0.2% to 548.48 points, remaining just short of the record 550.63 scaled in January 2018 before the eruption of tensions over trade between Washington and Beijing.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 recovered from an early drop but after levitating modestly in the green, as declines in mining and construction shares offset increases in technology and travel, was back to unchanged if still near a four-year high. In holiday-thinned trade, stronger than expected eurozone inflation data was the main piece of economic data. The data showed inflation accelerated in November, comforting EcoCB policymakers, even if some factors pushing up prices may be only temporary. The ECB will next meet on Dec. 12, with its loose policy stance not expected to change for months to come. It may, however, decide to dump all bonds issued by companies that are not determined “green” by Christine Lagarde (we are only joking… we hope).

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined for a second day, led by tech firms, as investors awaited China’s possible retaliation against a U.S. bill supporting Hong Kong protesters. Most markets in the region were down, with Hong Kong leading losses and Indonesia rebounding. Despite Friday’s weakness, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is heading for a third straight month of gains. The Topix fell 0.5% in thin trading, driven by Toyota Motor and Recruit Holdings. Japan looks set to re-embrace the power of public spending with one of its biggest ever stimulus packages. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.6% lower, capping a third week of declines, as signs of financial stress in China are putting the nation’s policy makers to the test. India’s Sensex retreated ahead of a quarterly economic report, which is expected to show the weakest growth in more than six years.

The big surprise in Asian trading was the a sudden, unexplained tumble in Hong Kong stocks which spread to the onshore market, with selling reflexively accelerating amid nervousness over a lack of clear triggers for the slump. As Bloomberg reports, the market was rife with speculation for the cause:  health-care shares tumbled in Hong Kong when a document circulating on social media suggested Beijing could add dozens of new drugs to another round of procurement. Others said there was too much macro risk going into the weekend, with increasing uncertainty on the trade-war front. In onshore trading, the selling accelerated in the afternoon session as investors took profits in crowd favorites like Kweichow Moutai.

 

In total, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index tumbled 2% on volume that was 36% higher than the 30-day average. Quoted by Bloomberg, some traders said Thursday’s U.S. holiday meant investors lacked cues in Friday’s Asian session.

 

There’s no obvious trigger” for the selloff according to First Shanghai Securities strategist Linus Yip who speculated that continued uncertainty over the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations could be one factor weighing on sentiment.

The Hong Kong sell-off came as investors grew uncertain over how U.S. markets will perceive the latest clash between Washington and Beijing over Hong Kong.  “The more recent news on the trade front is how the Hong Kong situation might play into the U.S.-China trade negotiations,” said Hugh Gimber, strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “The market is now waiting on the next clear steer on when investors might be able to expect a deal to be reached.”

Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Wall Street will start the half-day session on Friday following Thanksgiving with futures gauges suggesting losses of around 0.2%, just shy of all time highs.

The lack of a more powerful selloff following Trump’s Wednesday’s night signature indicates that markets do not believe the trade deal will collapse as a result as investors bet it remains in the interest of both Washington and Beijing to move forward with talks to get a trade deal. Meanwhile, the MSCI world index climbed 2.5% this month, its third straight month of gains, helped in part by hopes the world’s two biggest economies are moving toward a resolution. The trade conflict has upset financial markets and disrupted supply chains even if stocks have continued to climb buoyed by nonstop optimism and hope that a deal is just around the corner… ever since the summer of 2018!

Meanwhile, what really matters is central bank policy and the Fed’s NOT QE: for the year, the MSCI world index is up over 20% this year, helped by a lowering of interest rates and injections of government stimulus around the world.

In rates, 10Y Treasurys were unchanged from Wednesday, trading at 1.764%; Benchmark European bonds, including Germany’s 10-year Bund yield, were also little changed, trading off one-month lows hit the previous session.

In FX, the dollar traded initially flat at 98.387, and edged up slightly against the Japanese yen. In early London trading, the greenback reached 109.55 yen, not far off a six-month peak of 109.61 set on Wednesday. The dollar then took off and the Bloomberg dollar index rose again, spiking above 1,210, headed for its biggest monthly gains since July. The pound eyed its longest monthly run of advances against the euro in more than 4.5 years, while the relative cost of hedging sterling climbed ahead of next month’s U.K. election.  The euro stood at $1.1005, and has been stuck in a tight range for the past week. As trading in major currencies slumbers, their implied volatilities, key gauges of expected swings measured by their option prices, plumbed record lows this week.

Elsewhere, bitcoin gained 1.5%, with the original cryptocurrency on course for its worst month in a year. Bitcoin had been heavily sold off by investors as expectations fade that China’s embrace of blockchain would help cryptocurrencies enter the mainstream.

In commodities, oil prices dipped, with investors awaiting a meeting of OPEC and its allies next week. OPEC watchers expect an extension to a pact to throttle oil output but no deeper cuts to be agreed by the producer group and its allies next week. Brent crude futures were down 44 cents, or 0.7%, at $63.43 a barrel.

Markets Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,147.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.07% to 408.97
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 163.88
  • MXAPJ down 1.1% to 524.25
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 23,293.91
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,699.36
  • Hang Seng Index down 2% to 26,346.49
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,871.98
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 40,839.78
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,846.00
  • Kospi down 1.5% to 2,087.96
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to -0.373%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1007
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 0.888%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.397%
  • Brent futures down 0.6% to $63.49/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,456.71
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.37

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Banks have been wrong for most of the past 10 years with their krona predictions as Sweden’s economy, often seen as a barometer for global trade, found itself battered by recessionary fears and tariff wars
  • The worst is over for the European economy, according to buyers of exchange-traded funds. Investors have poured $1.5 billion into U.S. ETFs focused on European assets in November, data compiled by Bloomberg show
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government plans to tighten restrictions on foreign takeovers amid growing concerns China is scooping up Germany’s technology jewels
  • The ECB should integrate climate change and energy transition into its forecasting and assessment of collateral, Governing Council Member Villeroy said
  • For the last year, Saudi Arabia has largely turned a blind eye to cheaters within the OPEC+ alliance, cutting its own output more than agreed to offset over-production from the likes of Iraq and even Russia. Now, Riyadh’s had enough
  • Police said they had lifted lifted their blockade on Hong Kong Polytechnic University after officers cleared a campus that’s been besieged for nearly two weeks amid a violent standoff with demonstrators

Asian markets were mostly subdued after the holiday closure stateside for Thanksgiving Day and amid continued trade uncertainty, despite a more conciliatory tone from China’s State Council and with the retaliation so far to US President Trump’s Hong Kong bill signing seen as a mere slap on the wrist. ASX 200 (-0.3%) initially prodded record levels but with gains later reversed by underperformance in miners and the largest weighted financials sector, while the opening gains for the Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) eventually succumbed to the pressure from currency flows and substandard data in which Industrial Production matched its worst contraction since January last year. Hang Seng (-2.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) declined as markets second-guessed China’s retaliation measures for the HK bill and after PBoC’s inaction this week resulted to a CNY 300bln net liquidity drain, with the losses in the Hong Kong benchmark exacerbated as all its components resided in negative territory following the recent increased IPO activity and as the city braces for a resumption of protests over the weekend. Finally, 10yr JGBs weakened in an extension of yesterday’s post-2yr auction selling pressure and with demand also kept subdued by the lack of BoJ presence in the market, as well as mixed Japanese data releases.

Top Asian News

  • Ambani Said in Talks to Sell News Assets to Times Group
  • BOJ Cuts Buying Range for 10-25 Year Bonds in December Plan
  • India Braces for Shock GDP as Modi Scrambles to Spur Economy
  • Indiabulls Erases Gain as Court Allows More Time for Findings

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%) are mixed and off of morning lows, after a broadly negative Asia-Pac session during which sentiment was undermined by the hangover from recent trade concerns. Month-end factors coupled with low liquidity also seem likely to distort the price action. Sector performance is mixed with no clear standout. In terms of individual movers; Ocado (+12.4%) shares shot higher on the news that the Co. has agreed to a partnership with Japanese grocer Aeon, the companies first partnership in the region. Elsewhere, positive broker moves for Bouygues (+1.5%) and Scout24 (+0.8%) saw their respective shares supported. In terms of the laggards; St James’ Place (-3.5%) fell to the bottom of the Stoxx 600 following a downgrade at Goldman Sachs. Elsewhere, negative broker movers put Remy Cointreau (-1.2%), Air France (-1.5%) and Royal Mail (-2.2%) shares under pressure. Separately, E.ON (+2.0%) posted strong Q3 earnings, which were roughly 20% above the prior year’s figures, while the Co. also raised the outlook on the completion of Innogy’s (-0.2%) transaction. On which note, Innogy and E.ON presented proposals for the restructuring of Innogy’s Npower unit – which could lead to 4.5k in job losses and closures of a number of call centres. Finally, Renault (+1.4%) shares are supported amid reports that the Co. is reportedly mulling a program that would boost efficiency with Nissan and Mitsubishi.

Top European News

  • German Unemployment Unexpectedly Drops as Optimism Edges Up
  • Euro- Area Inflation Quickens, But Remains Far Below ECB’s Goal
  • Merkel’s Fate Rests With Disgruntled Members of Battered Partner
  • Ocado Expands Into Asia With Japan Robot Warehouse Deal

In FX, the major outperformers and movers outside of recent ranges, as an improvement in NZ consumer confidence gives the Kiwi a further fillip following more upbeat business sentiment or less bleak to be precise on Thursday. Nzd/Usd is extending gains above 0.6400 and threatening to break free from the 0.6425 level that has been keeping the pair tethered, while Eur/Sek is now eyeing the psychological 10.5000 mark in wake of firmer than forecast Swedish Q3 GDP that has given the Swedish Krona a fundamental lift on top of renewed bullish technical impetus after the cross retreated through 10.5500 chart support more convincingly.

  • GBP – Far from hero to zero, but Sterling is losing more of its YouGov pre-UK election poll mojo with negative month end cross winds also weighing on the Pound via Eur/Gbp demand. Cable has now lost grip of the 1.2900 handle and briefly slipped below the 21 DMA (1.2884), while 0.8500 continues to cushion the aforementioned cross.
  • AUD/EUR/JPY/CAD/CHF – All narrowly mixed vs the Dollar that is still doing well if not quite defying gravity amidst rebalancing models flagging various strains of Greenback selling for month end (DXY holding ‘comfortably’ above 98.000 and towards the upper end of a 98.412-301 range). The Aussie is trying to piggy-back its Antipodean counterpart, but remains top heavy into 0.6800 and Aud/Nzd has pulled back from 1.0550 again after weaker than expected private sector credit data overnight. In similar vein, Eur/Usd seems destined to stay anchored around 1.1000 with yet more hefty option expiries hampering attempts to the upside vs decent technical support limiting losses beneath the big figure, while mixed Eurozone data is broadly being ignored. Elsewhere, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Cad and Usd/Chf are also treading familiar ground in narrow parameters of 109.60-45, 1.3292-79 and parity-0.9980 respectively, with the Yen torn between conflicting Japanese data and standard BoJ policy rhetoric from Governor Kuroda, Franc largely shrugging off a decline in the Swiss KOF indicator and Loonie awaiting Canadian GDP along with any USMCA developments for some independent direction.

In commodities, crude markets are subdued (albeit off intraday lows) amid a lack of fresh catalysts, as prices pull back slightly following a strong finish to yesterday’s session. In terms of crude specific news; OPEC’s Economic Commission Board yesterday reportedly suggested that OPEC does not need to implement deeper cuts over H1 2020, premised on the assumption that the surplus in production over the first half of the year will be later offset by a deficit in the latter part of the year. This is broadly in line with expectations for the outcome of the 5-6 December meeting, as indicated by multiple sources in recent weeks. Elsewhere, Russian oil production for the month of November stood at 11.24mln BPD, according to IFAX citing sources, which is relatively unchanged from the prior month. In terms of metals, gold prices are subdued and well within recent ranges; the precious metal managed to meander just under yesterday’s 1458.32/oz high, but has since pulled back slightly, and remains well off this week’s USD 1470/oz high. Copper prices, meanwhile, continue to slip, with poor Industrial Output/Production readings out of Japan and South Korea overnight doing little to help sentiment.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was spent mostly waiting to see if we’d get a response from China following President Trump’s signing of legislation expressing support for Hong Kong protestors. Other than a statement from the foreign ministry and a tweet from the editor-in-chief of the state run Global Times saying that China was considering putting the drafters of the law on a no-entry list, we didn’t really get any. So we’ll have to wait and see if this impedes “phase one” trade negotiations. This morning Asian markets are down again with the Nikkei (-0.38%), Hang Seng (-1.98%), Shanghai Comp (-0.64%) and Kospi (-1.32%) all in the red. The declines in Hong Kong and China are being led by drugmakers over unconfirmed reports that China will accelerate a centralized procurement program that’s driving down generic drug prices. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.28%.

The decline for the Kospi overnight follows the Bank of Korea decision to keep interest rates unchanged; however, they did cut growth forecasts in 2019 and 2020, both by 0.2pp to 2.0% and 2.3%, respectively.

In other news, BoJ governor Kuroda said that the central bank needs to pay attention to downside risks to the economy, especially stemming from overseas, while adding that, to reach its inflation target, the BoJ will continue with powerful monetary easing. He also said that it’s important to weigh costs and benefits of policy and added that Japan needs structural reforms, deregulation to boost its potential growth. Yields on 10y JGBs are up +1.6bps to -0.089%.

As for the rest of markets yesterday, in Europe we ended with modest declines across most equity markets. The STOXX 600 closed down -0.14% for its first decline in a week with volumes close to 40% below average with the auto sector (-0.78%) down notably. The DAX, CAC and FTSE MIB closed -0.31%, -0.24% and -0.61% respectively while the FTSE 100 was -0.18%. European Banks also nudged down -0.69% despite bond markets being a touch weaker. Indeed 10y Bunds were +1.3bps and BTPs +2.9bps higher in yield. The latter seemingly underperforming post a 10y auction, which saw a drop in demand. In FX, having touched a high of $1.2951 on Thursday evening following the release of the YouGov MRP mode, Sterling faded slightly through yesterday’s session and is trading at 1.2914 this morning.

Staying with FX, the rout for the Chilean Peso (-1.17%) continued yesterday and along with the Colombian Peso hit a new all-time low. The Brazilian Real (+1.17%) did manage to strengthen but also remains a shade above its own record low as political turmoil in the region continues following anti-government demonstrations. Meanwhile, Chile’s central bank said overnight that it will sell as much as $10bn on the spot market and provide an equal amount of currency hedges to arrest the currency’s decline. EM FX is now down -0.64% for the year with 4 of the biggest 6 decliners being currencies in LatAm.

Lastly, yesterday’s data included a softer-than-expected November HICP print in Germany (-0.8% mom vs. -0.7% expected) although it was noted that the year-over-year rate printed ahead of expectations (+1.2% yoy vs. +1.1% expected) seemingly due to a methodology change for package holidays. Meanwhile in Spain CPI was also a tad softer than expected (0.0% mom vs. +0.1% expected). Elsewhere the October M3 money supply reading for the Euro Area stayed put at +5.6%, which was a tenth ahead of expectations while finally November confidence indicators for the Euro Area on average improved from October.

Looking at the day ahead, with no data due out of the US the focus will be here in Europe where we’re due to get the preliminary CPI report for the Euro Area, France and Italy, October money and credit aggregates data in the UK, November unemployment and October retail sales in Germany and final Q3 GDP revisions for France. Away from that we’re expecting to get some comments out of the ECB, specifically from Hernandez de Cos, Villeroy and Guindos.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.71 POINTS OR 0.61%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 547.24 POINTS OR 2.03%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 115.23 POINTS OR 0.49%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0244 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0244 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0262 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea

A holiday treat for Donald Trump:  North Korea launches missiles as the nuclear talks are stalled

(zerohedge)

North Korea Launches Missiles Amid Stalled Nuclear Talks With US

North Korea launched two unidentified projectiles on Thursday, in what could be the latest sign that a nuclear disarmament deal with the US might be unattainable unless President Trump offers fresh concessions, reported Reuters.

  • 28-Nov-2019 03:07:57 AM – NORTH KOREA HAS LAUNCHED WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MISSILE — JAPAN COAST GUARD
  • 28-Nov-2019 03:24:02 AM – APPARENT MISSILE APPEARS NOT TO HAVE LANDED IN JAPAN’S EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE — JAPAN DEFENCE MINISTRY
  • 28-Nov-2019 03:25:39 AM – JAPAN’S DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS N.KOREA MISSLE LAUNCHES TO DATE ARE A SERIOUS ISSUE FOR JAPAN, INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said both missiles were launched Thursday from North Korea’s east coast.

Japan’s Defense Ministry said, “what appears to be a ballistic missile” fired by North Korea landed outside of its territorial waters.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters that the missiles didn’t enter Japan’s airspace or “exclusive economic zone” at sea.

The defense ministry didn’t have any further information on the missile launch.

The incident follows a series of short-range missile tests by North Korea in late October, which landed near Japan.

The latest missile test comes as nuclear negotiations with the US have likely broken down.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has told President Trump that he has until the end of the year to offer new concessions, such as removing economic sanctions, to salvage nuclear talks.

Trump has said those concessions will only come when North Korea completely abandons its nuclear weapons, a move that would be political suicide for Pyongyang.

The missile test also comes hours after  Trump signed the Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy into law. This move has infuriated China, as it appears the US is set to intervene in Hong Kong affairs. It should be noted that North Korea and China are highly interconnected politically and economically.

end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Daniel Lacalle on the failures on Abenomics

(Daniel Lacalle)

The Lessons From Japan’s Monetary Experiment

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via DLacalle.com,

A recent article in the Financial Times, “Abenomics provides a lesson for the rich world“, mentioned that the experiment started by prime minister Shinzo Abe in the early 2010s should serve as an important warning for rich countries. Unfortunately, the article’s “lessons” were rather disappointing. These were mainly that the central bank can do a lot more than the ECB and the Fed are doing, and that Japan is not doing so badly. I disagree.

The failure of Abenomics has been phenomenal. The balance sheet of the central bank of Japan has ballooned to more than 100% of the country’s GDP, the central bank owns almost 70% of the country’s ETFs and is one of the top 10 shareholders in the majority of the largest companies of the Nikkei index. Government debt to GDP has swelled to 236%, and despite the record-low cost of debt, the government spends almost 22% of the budget on interest expenses. All of this to achieve what?

None of the results that were expected from the massive monetary experiment, inventively called QQE (quantitative and qualitative easing) have been achieved, even remotely. Growth is expected to be one of the weakest in the world in 2020, according to the IMF, and the country has consistently missed both its inflation and economic growth targets, while the balance sheet of the central banks and the country’s debt soared.

Real wages have been stagnant for years, and economic activity continues to be as poor as it was in the previous two decades of constant stimulus.

 

The main lessons that global economies should learn from Japan are the following:

  • No country can offset the problem of demographics and productivity with higher debt and money printing.It simply kicks the can further but leaves the economy weaker and in permanent stagnation.
  • The technology and productivity challenges cannot be solved incentivizing malinvestment and government spending. It is a massive constant transfer of wealth from the productive to the unproductive, which makes high productivity sectors stall and crony and obsolete sectors remain zombified.
  • Doing the same with different names will not generate a different outcome. Calling the same policy something different will not make citizens get excited about the economy.
  • The wrong diagnosis will lead to worsening outcomes. When the government is surrounded by economists that tell them that the problem of the economy is that there are too many savings, the government will decide to raise taxes and create a larger problem attacking consumption. With private debt at 221% of GDP. Japan has many issues, none of them being a “savings glut”.
  • If you abandon structural reforms, the results will be worse. The QQE program was based on three “arrows”: monetary policy, government spending, and structural reforms. Guess which arrow they forgot to implement? Exactly. Structural reforms never happened, and when they did, they came in the form of higher taxes and more interventionism, the opposite of what the economy needed.
  • The biggest lesson from Japan is not that the central bank can buy equities and keep kicking the can further. The biggest lesson from Japan is that monetary and fiscal policy is not designed to kickstart the economy and improve growth or productivity but to perpetuate the imbalances created by excessive government intervention and transfer wealth from salaries and savings to the government and the indebted crony sectors.
  • The lesson from Japan is that no government can make two plus two equal twenty-two, but they can prolong budget imbalances for much longer than logic would dictate.

The true lesson from Japan is that central planners will continue to prefer to gradually nationalize the economy before even considering a moderate reduction in government size and control of the economy. The result will be almost no growth, poor productivity, and rising discontent, but the bureaucratic machine will be safe.

end

3 C CHINA

China/Hong Kong/USA/Thursday morning

This may not go over well with the USA: China may put USA lawmakers on a “no entry list” in retaliation for the Hong Kong bill

It sure does not seem that we are going to get a trade deal at all

(zerohedge)

China May Put US Lawmakers On “No-Entry List” In Retaliation For Hong Kong Bill

Global Times editor-in-chief and notorious twitter troll, Hu Xijin ,tweeted Thursday that China is considering adding those who drafted the Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy Act into law on a no-entry list, banning them from traveling to China’s mainland, Hong Kong, and Macau.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Based what I know, out of respect for President Trump, the US and its people, China is considering to put the drafters of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act on the no-entry list, barring them from entering Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and Macao.

Xijin hasn’t provided additional details on the no-entry list, nor the names of US lawmakers who would be placed on it.

US Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, one of the main sponsors of the Hong Kong rights bill, applauded President Trump Wednesday “for signing this critical legislation into law.”

Greta Wall

@GretaLWall

@POTUS statement on bill

“The US now has new and meaningful tools to deter further influence and interference from Beijing into Hong Kong’s internal affairs. Following last weekend’s historic elections in Hong Kong that included record turnout, this new law could not be more timely in showing strong US support for Hong Kongers’ long-cherished freedoms,” Rubio said in a statement.

The Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy Act was first introduced during the 116th US Congress, as a direct response to the Hong Kong extradition bill, also known as the Fugitive Offenders and Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Legislation (Amendment) Bill 2019, was a proposed bill regarding extradition of fugitives in Hong Kong to mainland China. The proposal sparked violent protests in the city, now entering the sixth month as the regional economy has crashed into a nasty recession.

US Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, one of the main sponsors of the Hong Kong rights bill, applauded President Trump Wednesday “for signing this critical legislation into law.”

Greta Wall

@GretaLWall

@POTUS statement on bill

View image on Twitter

The US House bill was sponsored by Jim McGovern (D-MA) and Chris Smith (R-NJ), while the Senate bill was sponsored by Marco Rubio (R-FL).

Co-sponsors for the US House bill included Tom Suozzi (D-NY), Scott Perry (R-PA), Brad Sherman (D-CA), and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA).

Co-sponsors for the US Senate bill included Jim Risch (R-ID), Bob Menendez (D-NJ), Ben Cardin (D-MD), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Angus King (I-ME), Ed Markey (D-MA), and Josh Hawley (R-MO).

It’s still not clear which US lawmakers could be placed on the no-entry list, but one thing is clear, Rubio isn’t traveling to China’s mainland, Hong Kong, and Macau anytime soon.

 end
China/Thursday afternoon
Trump calls Beijing bluff and he may have won..China so far as does nothing.
(zerohedge)

China Folds: For All Its Bluster, Beijing Does Nothing After Trump Signs HK Bill

Just a few hours after Trump called China’s bluff on the Hong Kong bill, it appears the US president won the pot.

After launching a stern verbal protest overnight in which China’s Foreign Ministry said that it would take strong countermeasures if the US continues to undermine Hong Kong’s autonomy after Trump signed the Bill that supports HK protesters, adding that US attempts to interfere in HK are doomed to fail, Beijing has done nothing really, and instead left the door open for a trade deal with the U.S., confirming again that China needs the trade deal with the US just as much as Trump, if not more.

The build up certainly was dramatic: for days after Congress almost unanimously passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act last week, China repeatedly vowed it would take unspecified countermeasures if Trump signed the bill, fueling concerns that President Xi Jinping would scuttle the trade talks to appear tough on the U.S. In the end, China did nothing: Wednesday’s bill signing by Mr. Trump came and went without any real action.

Instead, as the WSJ notes, “Chinese officials shifted their focus to whether the U.S. president would implement any of the bill’s measures, according to officials involved in economic policy-making.” Specifically, to save face, Beijing seized on a sentence in Trump’s statement that emphasized his “constitutional authorities with respect to foreign relations.”

Lingling Wei 魏玲灵@Lingling_Wei

Beijing protested US law on HK but did little else. Instead, officials are betting Trump won’t actually implement the law if he wants a trade deal with China. They focused on the White House statement reaffirming POTUS’s “constitutional authorities … https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-protests-new-u-s-law-supporting-hong-kong-but-signals-hope-for-trade-deal-11574948698?reflink=share_mobilewebshare 

China Protests New U.S. Law Supporting Hong Kong but Signals Hope for Trade Deal

China Protests New U.S. Law Supporting Hong Kong but Signals Hope for Trade Deal

China is leaving the door open for a trade deal with the U.S., even as it noisily complains about President Trump’s signing of a bill supporting Hong Kong’s anti-Beijing protesters.

wsj.com

Lingling Wei 魏玲灵@Lingling_Wei

… with respect to foreign relations.” Sources confirm the Phase One deal is being finalized. So let’s see. With @PhilipWen11 @Chao_Deng

Or as the WSJ summarized, for all its huffing and puffing, “China’s leadership still wants a deal to help alleviate pressure on its fast-weakening economy”, which incidentally coincides with Trump’s own interest as he hopes to clinch a deal to boost his re-election bid.

Indeed, as the WSJ’s Lingling Wei also notes, Trump “Trump also chose the evening before Thanksgiving to sign the measure, a time guaranteed to get little attention in the U.S. While his signature still makes the bill law, his timing suggests he was trying to play down the political impact at home.

Lingling Wei 魏玲灵@Lingling_Wei

Also good point by @bobdavis187 : Trump also chose the evening be­fore Thanks­giv­ing to sign the mea­sure, a time guar­an­teed to get lit­tle at­ten­tion in U.S. The tim­ing sug­gests he was try­ing to play down the po­lit­i­cal im­pact at home.

Trump’s successful gambit was concluded when reporters asked if the bill’s signing would affect trade talks. To this, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang didn’t answer directly but demanded the U.S. not implement the law because it would risk “undermining our bilateral relations and cooperation in important areas.” Chinese officials were also reportedly encouraged by Trump’s efforts to emphasize his respect for Mr. Xi. “I signed these bills out of respect for President Xi, China, and the people of Hong Kong,” Trump said unironically in the statement.

And since the actual implementation of the bill wold not take place for over half a year, when it comes to China it is now officially in the rearview mirror as Beijing has moved the goalpost not to responding to Trump’s signing of the bill, but to Washington’s actual implementation.

“It does spoil the mood, but it shouldn’t interfere with the trade talks,” said Wang Yong, a professor of international relations at Peking University, of Mr. Trump’s move. “Both sides have enough reasons to keep trade, Hong Kong and political issues on separate tracks.”

Which means that with both sides now eager to sign a deal, they will ignore any political theater that could potentially jeopardize such a deal:

Some outside experts agree with Beijing’s interpretation that while the U.S. law gives the president broad powers to impose sanctions and travel restrictions on individuals who commit human-rights violations in Hong Kong, the president already had many of those powers—and still has the discretion to not apply them.

 

“My reading of D.C. is there’s a lot of appetite for talking tough on China, but not that much in terms of actually being tough,” said Andrew Polk, founder of Trivium, a Beijing-based economics and policy consulting firm.

Still, there is a modest risk that Xi will be pressured to offer at least a token response: as noted earlier, China’s top twitter troll, Hu Xijin, editor in chief of the state-run Global Times, said on Twitter that China was considering barring those responsible for drafting the legislation from entering mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau. Trolling Trump’s turn of phrase, Hu said this was “out of respect for President Trump, the U.S. and its people.”

Yet ultimately passage of any trade deal could depend on whether Hong Kong residents escalate their protests in the coming days, emboldened by explicit US support – in that case, Beijing may have no choice but to close the door, if only temporarily, on a Phase 1 deal.

China’s attempts to keep Hong Kong issues and the trade talks on separate tracks might not be universally popular, some analysts say. Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University, said it could be embarrassing for a phase-one trade deal to progress in light of the Hong Kong law.

Yet despite the various unknowns and risks, the fact that Beijing has so far merely stuck to verbal threats instead of escalating to actual deeds, confirms that for now, Trump’s signing gamble worked out just as the US president expected.

end
China
Because of the Pigo ebola virus there are not enough pigs in the world to fill the ends of China
(zerohedge)

There Are Not Enough Pigs In The World To Fill China’s Pork Hole

African swine fever has wiped out herds of pigs all over China – by some estimates more than half – and it now appears the global supply of pork might not be able to satisfy the country’s demand in early 2020, reported Bloomberg.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs published new data on Friday that shows the number of hogs in China dropped 40% in Oct. YoY. The decline is mostly due to the African swine fever and farmers culling their herds to prevent further transmission of the dangerous disease.

The disease has spread from Africa to Europe, and currently across Asia, and are fears pork supplies around the world are dwindling and might not be able to fill China’s deficit. Just this week, the Dutch government announced plans to shrink its hog industry (why? because apparently pigs smells – the government says fewer pigs means less odor nuisance and a better living environment, as well lower emissions of ammonia, in the European country with the most cows and pigs relative to land area).

A new Rabobank report projects that domestic pork supplies could hit a three-decade low and lead to higher spot pork prices early next year.

In southern China’s Guangdong province, spot prices have jumped 230% since January, with much of the gains seen in late summer as the disease gained momentum and farmers were forced by the government to cull more pigs.

The jumped in spot prices wasn’t just because domestic pork production collapsed, but the government has had difficulty sourcing products from abroad. It seems the world doesn’t have enough pork for China.

The trade war, until recently, prevented Chinese importers from souring US pork. China has found alternative sourcing in South America, signing trade deals with Argentina and Brazil for agriculture products. Though it could take months for the pork to arrive in China, the pork deficit will likely increase in early 2020, and spot prices will move higher.

Food inflation and a decelerating economy in China are a recipe for socio-economic problems in 2020.

END
CHINA/LATE TONIGHT
fascinating!!! the following story is d day for China
TeeWoo is a huge commodity trader and they were heavily involved in the copper  / backing  bond business
and the gold backing bond business
the problem?? the data was phony;
Teewoo is a state owned enterprise and if Mainland China is willing to let these guys fail, then investors will start throwing in the towel on other SOE and this may cave the Chinese stock markets.
trouble on Monday!!
(zerohedge)

China Braces For December D-Day: The “Unprecedented” Default Of A Massive State-Owned Enterprise

Something is seriously starting to break in China’s financial system.

Three days after we described the self-destructive doom loop that is tearing apart China’s smaller banks,  where a second bank run took place in just two weeks – an unprecedented event for a country where until earlier this year not a single bank was allowed to fail publicly and has now had no less than five bank  high profile nationalizations/bailouts/runs so far this year – the Chinese bond market is bracing itself for an unprecedented shock: a major, Fortune 500 Chinese commodity trader is poised to become the biggest and highest profile state-owned enterprise to default in the dollar bond market in over two decades.

In what Bloomberg dubbed the latest sign that Beijing is more willing to allow failures in the politically sensitive SOE sector – either that, or China is simply no longer able to control the spillovers from its cracking $40 trillion financial system – commodity trader Tewoo Group  – the largest state-owned enterprise in China’s Tianjin province – has offered an “unprecedented” debt restructuring plan that entails deep losses for investors or a swap for new bonds with significantly lower returns.

Tewoo Group is a SOE conglomerate, owned by the local government and operates in a number of industries including infrastructure, logistics, mining, autos and ports, according to its website. It also operates in multiples countries including the U.S., Germany, Japan and Singapore. The company ranked 132 in 2018’s Fortune Global 500 list, higher than many other Chinese conglomerates including service carrier China Telecommunications and financial titan Citic Group. Even more notable are the company’s financials: it had an annual revenue of $66.6 billion, profits of about $122 million, assets worth $38.3 billion, and more than 17,000 employees as of 2017, according to Fortune’s website.

The state-owned company is neither publicly listed nor rated by the top three international ratings companies, although it does have publicly traded bonds whose performance in recent months has been nothing short of terrifying for anyone who thought purchasing a company explicitly backed by Beijing can never fail.

As one can deduce from the above chart, the first time Tewoo Group’s financial difficulties emerged was in April when it sought debt extension from its lenders on its offshore, dollar bonds and sold copper below market rates amid a cash crunch. At that time, Fitch Ratings – the only rating agency to appraise the company’s credit standing – slashed the company’s credit score first from BBB to BBB- on April 18, and then by a whopping six notches, from BBB – to B- on April 29, to reflect its weak liquidity and higher-than-expected leverage.

According to Bloomberg the company has proposed an exchange/tender offer on the three dollar bonds due to mature over the next three years, as well as a perpetual note. What makes what would otherwise be a mundane exchange offer in the US, is that this is the first ever distressed plan of its kind from a state-owned Chinese firm.

What is just as striking is that the Tewoo Group – with its $66 billion in revenues and $38 billion in assets – is likely to default on its $300 million dollar bond due Dec. 16, a Bloomberg source said, unless the exchange is consummated. This means that the company’s bondholders have just a few weeks to decide between either taking as much as 64% in losses or accepting delayed repayment with sharply reduced coupons on $1.25 billion of dollar bonds, something which the rating agencies will describe as an event of default.

de facto default by Tewoo would be considered a “landmark case,” said Cindy Huang, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings. Central government support for SOEs is likely to be selective in the future, while local government aid will be limited by the slowing economy and weaker fiscal position, she said.

The “distressed exchange offer” comes after Tewoo Group said last week it would be unable to pay interest on a $500 million bond, prompting Industrial & Commercial Bank of China to transfer $7.875 million to bondholders on its behalf. ICBC provided a standby letter of credit on the note – a pledge to repay if the borrower can’t. However, the firm’s remaining $1.6 billion of dollar bonds lack such protection.

Worse, Tewoo Group is already in effective default after some of its units previously missed local debt payments – in July, Tianjin Hopetone missed a coupon payment on its 1.21 billion yuan note sending the company’s dollar bonds tumbling below 50 cents on the dollar, while Tianjin Haoying Industry & Trade missed a loan interest payment due in June. Also in July, rating agency Fitch – which somehow missed all of this when it was rating the company investment grade – withdrew its rating on Tewoo Group due to insufficient information to maintain the ratings. It last rated the issuer at B-.

And as furious bondholders scramble to demand an explanation how a state-owned enterprise can default, Beijing is already bracing for the inevitable next steps: earlier this month, Tianjin State-owned Capital Investment and Management, an entity wholly-owned by the Tianjin municipal government, was appointed to manage the company’s offshore debt. For now, the entity has no plan to hold controlling stakes in Tewoo Group, although that will likely change as soon as the company’s financial situation fails to improve. Meanwhile, Tewoo Group said it plans to take a series of debt management measures, by which we assume it means it will restructure its debt.

The fact that a state owned enterprise such as Tewoo has just days before it defaults, in either a prepack or “freefall” form, suggests that Beijing will no longer bail out troubled SOEs, let alone private firms, perhaps due to the strains imposed by the economy which is slowing the most in three decades. It also raises concerns over Tianjin, where it’s based, following a series of rating downgrades and financing difficulties suffered by some of the city’s state-run firms. The metropolis near Beijing also has the highest ratio of local government financing vehicle bonds to GDP in China.

In short, if there a glitch with Tewoo’s default, the Chinese dominoes could start really falling.

Since the first SOE bond default emerged in China’s domestic market four years ago, 22 such firms have failed to make good on a combined 48.4 billion yuan ($6.9 billion) onshore bonds as of the end of October, according to Guosheng Securities. However, as Bloomberg adds, despite periodic scares such as late repayment, Chinese SOEs have yet to suffer any high-profile default in the dollar bond market since the collapse of Guangdong International Trust and Investment Corp. in 1998.

Tewoo would be precisely that high-profile default.

* * *

There were early signs of Tewoo Group’s debt crisis. The bankruptcy of Bohai Steel Group in 2018 triggered systemic risk in Tianjin’s financial market. The incident involved a large number of local companies and financial institutions, which recorded huge amounts of bad debt. Financial institutions became more conservative in their lending standards, and this resulted in liquidity issues for a number of Tianjin enterprises.

At the same time, Beijing’s deleveraging and capacity reduction reforms made it difficult for a traditionally highly-leveraged company like Tewoo to raise financing. The default in May 2018 by Hsin Chong Group Holdings Limited, a company controlled by Tewoo, showed further signs of financial problems at Tewoo Group.

While normally such a critical company as Tewoo would be quietly bailed out by either Beijing or the local province, investors told Bloomberg that the company’s excessive debt levels will limit Tianjin authorities’ ability to lend support to the city’s troubled firms, prompting them to shun the latter’s debt. In July, Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group postponed plans to sell a three-year dollar bond offering amid such concern.

Tewoo’s debt issues that had surfaced from its current crisis may be only the tip of the iceberg. Tianjin’s economic growth has slowed down sharply since the beginning of 2016. GDP growth dropped to 1.9% in the first quarter of 2018. Even as it started to rebound thereafter, the outlook is still pessimistic, with GDP growth in 2018 less than 4%, which ranked last in the country according to iFast.

On the other hand, according to a 2016 report released by ratings agency Moody’s, state-owned enterprises in Tianjin recorded an aggregate liability-to-fiscal revenue ratio of more than 600%, which was the highest in the country.

At the same time, as shown in Tianjin municipal government’s most recent three-year revenue and debt data, Tianjin government’s fiscal revenue has declined significantly since 2017. Fiscal revenue fell by close to RMB40 billion in 2017, while government borrowings rose rapidly. By the end of 2018, debt owed by the Tianjin government was almost double its fiscal revenue.

The bankruptcy of Bohai Steel, a Tianjin SOE, in 2018 may also be a sign that the Tianjin government has lost control over the local debt crisis. Other than Bohai Steel and Tewoo, there have been a number of state-owned companies in Tianjin that are fighting to stave off insolvencies, such as Tianjin Real Estate Group Co. Limited, which owes RMB200 billion in debt. From the above observations, we think that in the event of a default by Tewoo, the company is likely to go into bankruptcy reorganization in a similar way as Bohai Steel, which has brought in capital from the private sector for its corporate restructuring. But for bondholders, recovery of their investments may be difficult, and potential loss heavy.

So with Tianjin unlikely to step up, in the aftermath of Tewoo’s proposed debt restructuring, which will indicate that Beijing will no longer bail out even SOEs, investors’ skepticism about state support for such state-linked firms will collapse, and a default could have wider implications on how investors assess and price their bonds in the future, said Judy Kwok-Cheung, director of fixed-income research at Bank of Singapore.

 

“Investors would be going back to basics in assessing credit risk in that the company’s stand-alone ability to repay is the first line of defense when it comes to non-repayment risk,” said Kwok-Cheung.

In short, “investors” would be reacquainted with a thing called “fundamentals.” The horror, the horror.

* * *

It gets worse: should Tewoo’s default spread to provincial-backed debt, an already ugly situation could quickly turn catastrophic as Tianjin has the highest debt burden among megacities and provinces in China according to S&P. Earlier this year, Fitch cut ratings on several government-related entities from the city, which is reliant on heavy industry and commodities trading. As a result of having the highest debt, Tianjin also has to slowest growth – Tianjin’s local economy grew by 3.6% last year, the slowest in China; at the end of last year, Tianjin’s government had 407.9 billion yuan worth of debt outstanding, or about 22% of the size of its economy, said the Chinese credit risk assessor.

And just in case the upcoming Tewoo D-Day isn’t troubling enough, Moody’s said that it expected the number of Chinese defaults to continue to rise in 2020 as economic growth sputters and the government attempts to rein in support to indebted companies. Specifically, Moody’s expects 40-50 new defaults in 2020, up from 35 this year, according to Ivan Chung, head of greater China credit research and analysis at Moody’s.

“The regulators’ intention is to reduce moral hazard” while at the same time ensuring any defaults “won’t undermine socioeconomic stability or trigger systemic risks,” Chung said on Wednesday, who added that whereas state support may be available for companies engaged in social welfare projects, for those that are more commercial in nature, “government support may not be so forthcoming,” he said.

Which is the worst possible news for Tweoo’s bondholders.

So what happens next?

Tewoo’s bondholders must quickly decide whether to accept the exchange/tender proposal by December 9 and 10 respectively, with the settlement date due on or around December 17. Since an event of default is now assured, the next big question is what will bondholders of China’s other SOE’s – those who bought bonds on the assumption that China will always bail them out – do next? A flurry of aggressively selling may be just the catalyst that cracks the market if it emerges in the extremely illiquid days just before Christmas.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

France

Protests continue in France as farmers descend on Paris as citizens (farmers) revolt against globalist government policies they say are ruining their standard of living

(Watson/Summit news)

French Farmers Descend On Paris In Fresh Revolt Against Globalist Regulations

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Around a thousand French farmers in tractors have descended on Paris in a fresh revolt against globalist government policies they say are ruining their standard of living.

The farmers assembled on the Avenue Foch, near the Champs Elysees and the Arc de Triomphe to decry regulations which they assert are devastating the agricultural sector.

Their main concern centers around “agri-bashing” by the media and politicians, where farmers are being blamed for environmental issues and pressured to amend their behavior in the name of preventing climate change.

Oh boy what a shot@ohboywhatashot

Massive farmer protest in

‘more than 1000 tractors’

Embedded video

The farmers are furious at how this is legitimizing attacks by vegan activists on butchers and calls to ban the weedkiller glyphosate, which President Emmanuel Macron wants to outlaw by 2021.

They also fear that EU trade deals with Canada and the Mercosur bloc in South America will flood the market with cheaper goods at lower standards.

The two main farmers’ unions have demanded a private meeting with Macron to discuss his policies.

Ian56@Ian56789

Thousands of French Farmers are blockading the , protesting against Macron’s attacks on them.

Embedded video

Ian56@Ian56789

Thousands of Tractors are blocking the Ring Road and main arteries into today to protest Macron’s attacks on French Farmers.

Embedded video

This is just one of numerous anti-globalist revolts taking place across Europe.

Earlier this month, German farmers blocked roads in Hamburg with their tractors to protest against environment regulations.

Last month, thousands of Dutch farmers also descended on Amsterdam to protest against a government proposal that livestock production be slashed by up to 50% in the name of preventing global warming.

The Yellow Vest movement in France, which just marked its first anniversary, also began as a backlash against onerous gas tax hikes and other regulations impacting rural workers.

*  *  *

My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

END
UK
My goodness, this money printing company has a monopoly on printing paper money but they too are going down
(zerohedge)

British Money Printer In Dire Straits, Cancels Dividend As Its Debt Soars

With all due respect to MMT – i.e., none – recent events (Venezuela, Argentina) have shown that countries printing their own money can and usually will eventually print their way into monetary oblivion and hyperinflation. It now appears that money printing companies are also not immune from the vagaries of Finance 101.

Take embattled UK banknote printer De La Rue, whose new management led by CEO Clive Vacher, warned the company’s £171 million debt pile – up a whopping £63 million – meant it could breach its banking covenants if trade continues to worsen, costs are not slashed and the business fails to get paid on time. As a result, as part of its latest quarterly results in which the company with the ironic ticker DLAR reported a 15% drop in revenue and a £12 million loss, the new CEO announced plans for a “radical review” and scrapped the company’s £26m dividend to give the business breathing space, sending its stock tumbling by as much as 25% earlier today, and wiping nearly 70% of the company’s value in 2019. The company is now valued at just £140 million, less than its money-printer’s total debt.

According to the Telegraph, Vacher said De La Rue has gone through an “unprecedented period of change” in which the chairman, chief executive, senior independent director and most of the executive team have left or resigned.

The chief executive denied the announcement was a “kitchen sinking” – throwing out all the bad news and blaming previous management, and said: “These results are the first step in the healing process of showing where we stand. We have a laser-like focus on immediate actions to get the business back on track. This is not a last-minute scramble, we have a long-term plan.”

And while the message from management was clear – the company is facing a grim future if underlying business trends do not reverse, the company’s battered shareholders refuse to give up hope: Richard Bernstein, fund manager at Crystal Amber which has a 7% stake in De La Rue, said: “At this price De La Rue is very cheap. I’m certain bidders are looking at it.”

Sure they are, although they may well be looking for the company to first file and then scoop it out of bankruptcy court for pennies on the dollar.

The activist investor added that De La Rue’s profitable product authentication arm which does security printing to identify genuine products is likely to be the main target for a bidder. “Product authentication is worth several times more than De La Rue’s market value on its own,” Bernstein said, but added he would be unlikely to sell unless it was a “knock-out” price.

It got better: apparently encouraged by the side-effects of much more money printing elsewhere, if not at De La Rue, Bernstein said “I’m bizarrely encouraged by today’s announcement,” adding that “new management have come in, identified the problem and are taking steps to deal with it – I just wish it had happened sooner.”

Vacher – who has run turnarounds at companies including Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney in the past – said he had “no plans to sell any part of the business.”

 

However, he added: “As a public company we are up for sale all the time but I have had no more detailed approach than the odd email – there have been no serious offers.”

Meanwhile, the findings of CEO Vacher’s review which aims to get the loss-making banknote printing unit back in the black are due by March. He refused to rule out the possibility of job cuts, saying all options are open. A fundraising is also not being ruled out.

As the Telegraph reminds us, De La Rue’s latest troubles come after a “torrid year for the company during which the Serious Fraud Office opened an investigation into the business – which is still ongoing – following allegations of suspected corruption in related to currency printing contract in Africa.”

Ironically, the business also took a £18 million hit due to uncollected sales from its top client, Venezuela, which has been on a literal money-printing spree in recent years, after US sanctions came into force and it lost the contract to print British passports late last year, resulting in a very public row with the Government.

END
ECB/EU
my goodness!! what is this world coming to:  Analysts in Europe are stunned as new ECB head honcho demands a key role in climate change
(zerohedge)

Analysts Stunned After Lagarde Demands “Key Role” For The ECB In Climate Change

Having failed miserably to “trickle down” stock market wealth for a decade as was their intention, something Ben Bernanke made clear in his Nov 4, 2010 WaPo op-ed, central banks have moved on to more noble causes.

Over the weekend Minneapolis Fed chair Neil Kashkari suggested it was time to allow central banks to directly decide how to redistribute wealth, stating unironically that “monetary policy can play the kind of redistributing role once thought to be the preserve of elected officials”, apparently failing to realize that the Fed is not made up of elected officials but unelected technocrats who serve the bidding of the Fed’s commercial bank owners.

Failing to decide how is poor and who is rich, central bankers are happy to settle with merely fixing the climate.

Overnight, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda joined his European central banking peers by endorsing government plans to compile a fiscal spending package for disaster relief and measures to help the economy stave off heightening global risks. Kuroda said that natural disasters, such as the strong typhoon that struck Japan in October, may erode asset and collateral value, and the associated risk may pose a significant challenge for financial institutions, Kuroda said.

In short, it’s time for central banks to target global warming climate change:

“Climate-related risk differs from other risks in that its relatively long-term impact means that the effects will last longer than other financial risks, and the impact is far less predictable,” he said. “It is therefore necessary to thoroughly investigate and analyse the impact of climate-related risk.”

Kuroda’s crusade to tame climate came just hours after the ECB’s new chief, Christine Lagarde pushed for climate change to be part of a strategic review of the European Central Bank’s purpose, “spearheading a global drive to make the environment an essential part of monetary policymaking.”

As the FT put it, the plan “underlines Ms Lagarde’s declared goal as president to make climate change a “mission-critical” priority for the central bank. It comes as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, whose team on Wednesday was officially endorsed by the European Parliament, is about to unveil her first landmark climate policy package.

“We have reached the point where the reputational risk of doing nothing is large enough that they will have to announce something at the end of the review — the big question is what,” said Stanislas Jourdan, head of Positive Money Europe, a campaign group.

Funny Jourdan should bring up reputational risk: after all he was referring to the criminally convicted former IMF head, who recently incinerated tens of billions in IMF bailout funds in Argentina. The same former IMF head who in April 2016 admitted that for the IMF to “thrive”, the world has to “go downhill”, and that the IMF “to be sustainable” it needs to be “very in touch with our client base” while adding that “when the world goes well and we’ve had years of growth, as was the case back in 2006 and 2007, the IMF doesn’t do so well both financially and otherwise.”

Naturally, Lagarde’s attempt to hijack the ECB’s mission from one of failing to hit an inflation target for years, diverting from Mario Draghi’s disastrous bubble legacy, and from making the wealth divide between the rich and poor the widest it has ever been, and to one of virtually unlimited debt monetization and MMT under the virtue-signalling guise of monetizing fiscal deficits to “save the climate” was promptly frowned upon by real central bankers such as Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann, who said last month that he would view “very critically” any attempt to redirect ECB monetary policy actions to tackle climate change. Then again, as has long been the case, the general public is by now well aware of Weidmann’s “bad cop” act – when push comes to shove, the German always folds, he will fold again.

It wasn’t just Weidmann who was appalled by Lagarde’s mission creep. Overnight, Rabobank’s Michael Every wrote that “just 24-hours after the Daily made the joke that said central banks will be adding a CO2 target to their CPI target, we see the Financial Times report that ECB President Lagarde wants a key role for climate change in the upcoming ECB review; this is apparently being opposed by the Germans, who believe that central banks are only supposed to focus on not-getting CPI right.”

To be sure, Lagarde’s half-baked strategy prompted even more questions the answers. Here is Every again:

Is Lagarde suggesting the ECB’s balance-sheet expansion will only be targeted at firms who meet green criteria? That’s going to cause a rapid liquidity crunch if so. Or is it that the ECB will back de facto fiscal expansion provided the scheme address global warming? “Cli(MM)a(T)e crisis”. I am not taking a side on that debate by the way, which is literally life or death if you believe the science: I am just asking how this is not something that elected politicians shouldn’t be front-running – does central-bank independence now run into the meteorological? And very sadly, commentary in Nature today suggests we might already be past the tipping point on the climate anyway – which would ironically be par for the course for central banks, who are always fighting the last war and failing to meet their targets.

And on the “let’s reduce inequality” front the Fed’s Kashkari recently floated as another focus for central banks, are we perhaps to see the Fed’s balance-sheet expansion channelled to low-income housing, or to firms who help #MAGA? “#M(MMT)AGA” springs to mind if so. Or are they going to keep things simple and merely tell banks they have to charge rich people more in order to give subsidised loans to poor people?

None of this really suggests higher rates or yields, of course.

That was nothing, however, compares to full-on rant unleashed by Shard Capital’s Bill Blain in his latest daily letter:

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was recently asked what he thought about tax cuts, and replied it was not the Fed’s job to comment on political initiatives – he made clear the US Central Bank will stick to the data to deliver on its mandate of price control and employment. Simple Stuff and Very Focused.

Compare and contrast to the situation in Europe.  New ECB head Christine Lagarde is demanding a key role for the ECB in Climate Change. I thought the ECB was a central bank?  Silly me. Bravo for her strident virtue signalling of her impeccable climate change credentials. I would propose a round of applause – but let’s give her Jazz Hands in case it offends anyone.

The gods of unintended consequences are going to have a fantastic time!

I was also under the impression The ECB was an element within some form of democracy at the centre of Europe where elected governments would determine policy. Apologies if I misunderstood.

Just how will the ECB address climate change? Will it impose punitive capital costs on banks lending to borrowers they deem non-climate worthy? Will it jail bankers and financiers that have the temerity to offer terms to Oil, Gas and Coal companies?  Will the Bank only buy bonds issued by green borrowers who pass their tests? How will the bank police its green lending – for instance creating a Ministry of Financial Climate Control and basing it in Luxembourg…?  How will it address Greenwashing? (By selling its own Green label perhaps?) What incentives and punishments will it have at its command?

The potential for market distortion is multiple and serious.

I would suggest the remit of the ECB might stick with the knitting – like how to get European agreement on the obvious stuff like Banking Union, how to address the need for Fiscal policy, rather than trampling all over National State’s rights to address climate change themselves.

No Matter. Lagarde is French and Europe belongs to Macron.  

Any company that is well run, efficient and has positive cash flow, but is tarred by some Not Green badge, is going to be a screaming buy if you legislate against it – because it will be a good and cheap company.  Giving a company a green badge does not make it a good company. It means it got a gold star – nothing more.

 

Blain’s punchline: “why stop at protecting the environment. Go the whole hog and give the ECB oversight of ESG in its entirety. Give the ECB responsibility for determining which companies have done enough in terms of gender and transgender diversity, social inclusiveness, and which support the European dream most enthusiastically…”

Well, Bill, if we wait just a few years you will surely get your wish.

Finally, just in case Every and Blain’s sarcasm was lost on someone, here is Cantillon’s Sean Corrigan pointing out that what central bankers are currently pushing is “backdoor, globalist imposition of anti-democratic #Green tyranny, nothing less 2.0C + 2.0CPI = CCCP2.0.”

zerohedge@zerohedge

BOJ’s Kuroda Says Climate Is a New Risk for Financial Stability

So after the BOJ failed to hit its inflation target for 7 years, it is moving on to to the weather

Wild Goose@TrueSinews

I have been warning about this for some time now. Divus Marcus has been leading the charge and it all fits nicely, too, with the OPM Wokery of ‘investing’
This is a backdoor, globalist imposition of anti-democratic tyranny, nothing less
2.0C + 2.0CPI = CCCP2.0

View image on Twitter

He is, of course right.

END
Europe/Amazon
Mutiny on the Bounty at Amazon Europe:  thousands protest working conditions as they stage a walkout on Black Friday..cool!!
(zerohedge)

“We Are Not Robots”: Thousands Protest Amazon As Workers Stage Black Friday Walkout

Thousands of Amazon workers across Europe have walked out as part of a coordinated Black Friday strike against working conditions at the world’s largest online retailer.

Both employees and non-employee union members in the UK, Germany, France and Spain came out in droves, displaying banners in various languages – such as the GMB union’s “WE ARE NOT ROBOTS” signs seen at various locations.

Sue Wood@SueWood09373512

GMB joined by Labour Party Candidates Lou Haigh and Oliver Blake this morning outside Amazon ⁦⁦@GMB_union⁩ ⁦@GMBCampaigns⁩ ⁦@LouHaigh⁩ ⁦@OliverBlake17⁩ ⁦@RixyieOrganiser⁩ ⁦@leeparkinson14

View image on Twitter

“The conditions our members work under at various Amazon sites across the UK are appalling,” GMB national officer Mick Rix told Business Insider.  Workers are breaking bones, being knocked unconscious and being taken away in ambulances.”

“Amazon workers want Jeff Bezos to know they are people – not robots. It’s about time Mr Bezos showed empathy with the very people that have helped build his vast empire and make sure it is not a Black Friday for Amazon workers,” Rix added.

Jack Dromey MP

@JackDromeyMP

A freezing dawn on outside the Rugeley @amazon depot with the @GMB standing up for the rights of @amazon workers. One young man with his child nearly in tears just sacked. A 21st century company! More like a 19th century millowner. Shame on you, @JeffBezos

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

TUC Midlands@TUCMidlands

Proud to stand with Amazon workers at Rugeley today with @GMBWestMidlands. We Are Not Robots!

View image on Twitter

On Wednesday we highlighted a recent report which concluded that Amazon warehouse workers are seriously injured on the job at twice the rate of other warehouse workers – likely a factor of the company’s demanding conditions.

Injury records were compared from 23 of Amazon’s 110 fulfillment centers nationwide, which revealed that the rate of injuries at Amazon’s centers was 9.6 per 100 full-time workers in 2018, compared with an industry average of four, according to the Atlantic.

Cyber Monday

More protests are planned for Cyber Monday, while demonstrations outside of three German warehouses are planned to last until Tuesday at the soonest.

A tweet from a regional arm of Germany’s ver.di worker’s union said: “Stick to your guns!”

A spokesman for ver.di said there were more than 2,200 strikers across six locations in Germany. –Business Insider

ver.di Westfalen@verdi_Westfalen

💪 Nicht locker lassen! @verdinrw @_verdi

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

In Spain, Amazon worker Julian Marval said “There’s no signs of Amazon wanting to engage in negotiations,” regarding working conditions. Marval has worked for the company seven years and says that things have dramatically worsened since April of last year

 

Black Friday kicks off Amazon’s busiest sales period, known internally as “peak.” According to one UK Amazon worker, things get “hectic.”

“You’re all over the place from the amount of orders that come in… on average you can cover eight to 20 miles a day.”

Amazon responded to the protests by claiming they offer “industry-leading pay” along with benefits and a ‘safe work environment.’

Your bottle-pissing, frequently injured employees beg to differ.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

this was some protest:  over 700 banks and 140 government buildings were torched by protesters.

As far as the banks are concerned, replacing the burnt out riyals is no problem. It is a problem for them with respect to the uSA dollars that the banks house.  They are already in short supply and  now, the foreign stuff that they need to pay in dollars will be a huge problem for them

(zerohedge)

 

 

Iran Says Over 700 Banks Were Torched In Vast Protest ‘Conspiracy’

After early in the week Iran’s top elite Guard commander gave a fiery ‘victory’ speech declaring the mainstay of anti-government protests which gripped major cities across Iran since Nov. 15 had been quelled, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has followed up with denouncing the unrest as a “very dangerous conspiracy”.

This as according to Reuters Iranian authorities “reported about 731 banks and 140 government sites had been torched in the disturbances.”

Given the over week-long and government ordered total internet shutdown which had ensued, this claim can’t be independently verified. However, during the opening days of widespread unrest which had been triggered by a sudden fuel price hike by as much as 300% in some places when government subsidies were slashed, initial videos posted online showed dramatic scenes of banks and gas stations being torched.

“A deep, vast and very dangerous conspiracy that a lot of money had been spent on… was destroyed by the people,” Khamenei said while addressing members of the paramilitary Basij force. The Basij were among the elite security forces which spearheaded the crackdown against protests.

Over the past days sizable pro-government demonstrations have largely supplanted the anti-government unrest, which state media has touted as proof the “conspiracy” against the Islamic Republic has failed.

On Monday Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Gen. Hossein Salami blamed the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel for fueling the unrest as part of continued covert war against Iran. “If you cross our red lines, we will destroy you,” he threatened.

 

ISNA via AP: Protesters burned a gas station in protest over raised fuel prices in Tehran on Nov. 17, 2019.

And it was Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli who gave the total alleged figure of 731 banks and 140 government sitesbeing set on fire during the protests.

He also claimed that 50 bases used by police and security forces were attacked along with about 70 gas stations burned, according to the official IRNA news agency.

 

Burned bank in Tehran, via Reuters.

Few details or locations were given to support this claim, but it is part of the government’s continued attempt to paint a US and Israeli “hidden hand” as driving the popular anger.

 

Ayatollah Khamenei had previously labeled the protests as driven by “thugs” who were playing into the hands of Iran’s enemies.

Ahmad Batebi

@radiojibi

Burning a bank building by in , capital of Behbahan County, Province, .

16th November 2019

Embedded video

It should be noted that Washington did early on voice support to the protests, sparked initially by the economic crisis in the sanctions-wracked country. The death toll climbed to an estimated 200 dead as protesters clashed with police.

Last week Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had issued an unusual call for Iranian protesters to send the United States videos and photos and other evidence “documenting the regime’s crackdown” on protesters. It’s unclear the extent to which Iranian activists and protesters have heeded his call.

END

IRAQ/IRAN

Iraqi’s torch another Iranian consulate in Iraq as tensions between these two neighbours intensifies

(zerohedge)

In “Message To Tehran” Iraqi Protesters Torch Another Iranian Consulate

The month of protest mayhem has continued in Iraq, on Wednesday once again escalating into attacks on Iranian and pro-Iranian bases and sites, especially in the restive southern provinces, where Tehran’s proxies in Iraq are considered strongest.

Reuters reports, “Iraqi protesters stormed and set fire to the Iranian consulate in the southern city of Najaf on Wednesday, police and civil defense sources said.”

Consular staff had reportedly evacuated as mobs of angry demonstrators gathered prior to the incident, which involved Iraqis storming the compound and breaching the gates. A mass blaze then erupted from within during the evening hours as social media videos quickly put online show.

Farnaz Fassihi

@farnazfassihi

Iraqis attacking Iranian consulate in Najaf. Symbolism hard to miss.

Embedded video

It marks the second such mob attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in under a month, after the Iranian consulate in the southern Shia holy city of Karbala came under attack and was torched on Nov. 3.

Iraq remains a sectarian powder keg waiting to erupt further, given anti-corruption protests have quickly turned to target neighboring Iran’s influence.

Humanitarian monitors have counted hundreds dead among the protests which have raged for over a month, with most international media citing over 300 killed and many thousands wounded.

Barzan Sadiq

@BarzanSadiq

In the last 20 days both Consulates in and set on fire. Bright message to and its proxies in .

Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militias have reportedly been increasingly involved in assisting security forces in putting down the popular unrest which has swept the country – by some accounts even deploying snipers.

This has increased fears that the even larger, but on the whole much more peaceful ongoing protests in nearby Lebanon could also soon become armed and sectarian just in Iraq.

 

Iranian consulate in Najaf burning overnight Wednesday, via Reuters. 

Kurdistan-24 journalist Barzan Sadiq described the consular attacks this month as a “Bright message to Tehran and its proxies in Iraq.”

END
IRAQ
Chaos inside Iraq as the Prime Minister announces his resignation after 40 protesters killed
(zerohedge)

Iraq PM Announces Resignation After 40 Protesters Killed On Single Deadliest Day

After two months of anti-corruption and anti-government protests have rocked Iraq, resulting in a death toll into the hundreds as the unrest turns increasingly sectarian and which has included the burning of two Iranian consulatesIraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi says he will resign.

He announced in an official statement put out by his office that he will submit his resignation to parliament after the country’s top Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, suddenly pulled support, telling the nation in a Friday sermon that parliament should “reconsider its options” after putting Mahdi in power in the first place.

The subsequent statement signed by Abdul Mahdi indicated the following: “In response to this call, and in order to facilitate it as quickly as possible, I will present to parliament a demand (to accept) my resignation from the leadership of the current government.”

 

Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahd, via Reuters.

Local authorities estimate the death toll since protests erupted on Oct. 1 has soared to over 400 people, with thousands wounded, amid reports of ‘live fire’ used by police. This includes security forces reportedly shooting some 40 people dead in Baghdad and in southern provinces in what was possibly the deadliest single day on Thursday.

At least on top provincial police chief was removed over shooting deaths this week, after Iraqi clerics had previously urged government forces to refrain from using deadly force.

Iraq remains a sectarian powder keg waiting to erupt further, given anti-corruption protests have quickly turned to target neighboring Iran’s influence; however Mahdi’s stepping down may relieve some of that pressure, given he had the close backing of Iran.

 

Iranian consulate in Najaf burning overnight Wednesday, via Reuters. 

Meanwhile, Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militias have reportedly been increasingly involved in assisting security forces in putting down the popular unrest which has swept the country – by some accounts even deploying snipers.

Washington too has pointed the finger at Tehran and its paramilitaries inside of Iraq of stoking the unrest and destabilizing its neighbor in order to tighten its grip of influence over the country, which still has thousands of American troops present in an advisory capacity.

end

6.Global Issues

Thursday morning report on global markets:  they tumbles as trade fears again flare up plus the Hong Kong bill signing

(zerohedge)

Global Markets Stumble As Trade Fears Flare Up After Trump Signs Hong Kong Bill

There is a distinct lack of stock market-boosting “trade deal optimism” overnight after Trump signed the legislation that expresses US support for Hong Kong protesters into law. Needless to say, China was furious at Trump’s endorsement of a bill that requires annual reviews of Hong Kong’s special trade status under American law, as well as sanctions against any officials deemed responsible for human rights abuses or undermining the city’s autonomy, and in response China’s Foreign Ministry said US interference unites the Chinese people against Washington’s “sinister intentions & hegemonic nature” and that China country will take strong counter measures if the US continues this way, adding that US attempts to interfere in HK are doomed to fail.

“The bad news is, the trade war is still on,” Andy Kapyrin, director of research at RegentAtlantic Capital LLC, told Bloomberg TV. “I really don’t see substantial progress on trade with China,” and markets will perceive Trump’s signing of the bill negatively, he said.

All eyes now on whether this impedes “phase one” negotiations, but until then a four-day rally that had lifted world stocks to near-record highs stalled and S&P futures are on the back foot after hitting a third consecutive record on Wednesday, even if they have managed to recoup almost half the overnight losses as traders clearly do not think the HK bill will hurt the trade deal. As a reminder, US markets are closed today for Thanksgiving holiday.

Fading hopes of a deal between the world’s two biggest economies before additional, potentially damaging tariff hikes kick in has lowered risk appetite, pushing the benchmark German 10-year government yield to its lowest since Nov. 1. The safe-haven yen gained against the U.S. dollar, recovering from six-month lows, while London’s FTSE index fell from two-month highs and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was down 0.2%, led by trade-sensitive sectors such as autos, down 0.6% and tech, down 0.4%.

Euro zone economic sentiment rebounded more than expected in November, with more optimism in the services sector, data from the European Commission showed. Sentiment in industry, among consumers, and in industry all improved but remain below zero. The euro was little changed by the news. Data released on Thursday also showed that bank lending to euro zone companies in October rebounded, after dropping the month before.

Of course, since nothing can interfere with the goalseeked narrative pushing stocks higher, fears as to the extent of Chinese retaliation started to ease during London trading.

“When you see the optics of siding with Hong Kong against the mainland, that would seem at face value to be intuitively antagonist to the prospect of the trade negotiations,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC capital markets. However, he said, “It may prove to be the case that despite the threat of a Chinese reprisal they may not be quite as significant or dynamic as feared. It is an external headwind but, for now at least, the markets are starting to take a slightly more sanguine viewpoint of the outcome.”

Asian markets mostly traded lower on this news, snapping a four-day rising streak with Indonesia leading declines, while Australia climbed. Technology and industrial shares were among the weakest. Japan’s Topix slipped 0.2%, as Keyence and Honda Motor weighed on the gauge. Japanese retail sales plunged 7.1% in October after a sales tax hike and a super typhoon kept shoppers at home. The decline in retail sales comes at a time when the Japanese government is mulling the size of a fiscal stimulus. An economy ministry official said after the release that sales were also hurt by a drop in overseas tourists, including visitors from South Korea, while car and appliance purchases slid by double-digits.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.5% lower, dragged down by Kweichow Moutai and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. A scorching rally in pork prices, which pushed China’s inflation to the highest level in seven years, is cooling. India’s Sensex fluctuated after closing Wednesday at a record, as investors awaited the country’s quarterly economic report due Friday.

This kept MSCI’s world equity index flat, after it approached the record reached in January 2018. However, the index is up almost 3% so far in November and is on track for the best month since June as investors flit in and our depending on the trade news.

With 10Y Treasuries closed for trading, European sovereign bonds were mixed, with British and Swiss notes edging up and Italian debt falling.

In FX, the pound held Wednesday’s gain against the dollar following a poll suggesting the U.K. election will deliver a large majority for the Conservative Party. However, the currency failed to build on its gains, trading steady against the dollar at $1.2910. It was little changed versus the euro after surging to its highest in nearly seven months at 85 pence in early London trading. Implementing Brexit by the end of January, as Johnson had promised, would leave him a “miniscule” 11 months to agree a trade deal with the European Union, analysts at Societe Generale told clients.

A drop in Latin American currencies turned into a rout Wednesday as Chile’s peso, Brazil’s real and Colombia’s peso all hit record lows following political unrest in the region.

In commodities, WTI crude oil prices are down -0.43% while, spot gold prices are up +0.16%.

Top US News from Bloomberg

  • President Trump signed legislation that requires annual reviews of Hong Kong’s special trade status under American law, as well as sanctions against any officials deemed responsible for human rights abuses or undermining the city’s autonomy. A second Hong Kong measure also bans the export of crowd-control items such as tear gas and rubber bullets to the city’s police. China’s foreign ministry reiterated a threat of retaliation without offering any details
  • Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is on course to win a large majority of 68 seats in the Dec. 12 vote, according to a YouGov poll, which used a technique that more closely predicted the 2017 election than standard surveys
  • Japanese retail sales plunged in October after a sales tax hike and a super-typhoon kept shoppers at home, a worse- than-expected outcome the government will need to consider as it mulls the size of a spending package to support growth
  • Oil fell for a second day after U.S. crude production rose to a record and Trump signed a bill into law expressing support for the Hong Kong protesters
  • China has ordered local governments to speed up the issuance of debt earmarked for infrastructure projects, so that the proceeds can be invested early in 2020 to help shore up the slowing economy

 

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%) are broadly lower, with risk sentiment dented in wake of US President Trump’s signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights Bill to the consternation of China, who have threatened counter measures. “While this worsens the negotiation climate for a trade deal” note Danske Bank, “it is still our belief that the sides will be able to keep the Hong Kong issue separate and land a phase 1 deal before the 15 December when US-China import tariffs are scheduled to rise by 15%.” Elsewhere, FTSE 100 (-0.4%) is weighed on as a firmer Pound weighs on large-cap exporters after the YouGov MPR model predicted a healthy Conservative majority at the upcoming election, whilst heavy-weight miners bear the brunt on unfavourable base metal price action. However, Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.7%) stands as the underperformer thus far, with domestic banks all pressured by unwelcomed action in the Italian fixed income complex. Sectors are mostly in the red, with only Energy (+0.2%) and Materials (+0.1%) modestly in positive territory. Moving on to the stock specific movers; Telefonica (+1.5%) shares advance after the Co. revealed a major overhaul to its business; it will focus more on its domestic market, Brazil, UK and Germany, whilst its remaining 8 Latin American businesses will form a separate unit which could potentially be sold. Moreover, two new businesses, Telefonica Tech and Telefonica Infra, will be created as part of the overhaul, with profits expected to be boosted by EUR 2.0bln by 2022. Elsewhere amongst the gainers, Ambu (+1.2%) and Red Electrica (+1.3%) shares are bid after the Cos received upgrades at Handelsbanken and Citi respectively. In terms of the laggards; declining net earnings and revenue see Remy Cointreau (-3.2%) shares come under pressure. Elsewhere, Proximus (-2.1%) shares are lower after the Co. appointed Guillaume Boutin as its new Chief Executive, effective on December 1st.

 

 

In FX, Sterling has extended its recovery rally from recent lows on the back of the latest UK election poll from YouGov that signals a relatively big win for PM Johnson and his Tory party at the forthcoming GE, albeit with the standard statistical error margins that could crimp the actual number of seats predicted to be claimed by the Conservatives. Cable has run into some resistance around 1.2950 and Eur/Gbp support circa 0.8500, but in thinner US Thanksgiving Holiday trade and with more month end models pointing to Dollar selling for portfolio rebalancing 1.3000 remains a realistic objective for the former, while a breach of the round number in the cross exposes 0.8475-70.

  • EUR/NZD/JPY/CHF – All firmer against the Greenback as the DXY topped out just ahead of 98.500 following yesterday’s post-US data rebound amidst slightly less friendly US-China ties on HK lines compared to the Phase 1 trade accord that is said to be increasingly close to completion. However, the single currency continues to struggle above the 1.1000 level and faces more option expiry-related supply due to 1.1 bn rolling off between 1.1025-30 at today’s NY cut with little impetus via any of the latest Eurozone data ranging from encouraging economic sentiment indicators and M3 metrics to benign German state CPIs. Similarly, the Kiwi is still finding the air rare over 0.6400 even with a more pronounced, while the Yen and Franc are paring some declines from 109.50+ and near parity troughs respectively regardless of contrasting macro releases (Japanese retail sales weak vs stronger than forecast Swiss GDP). Note, Usd/Jpy could maintain its upward trajectory on technical grounds if the pair settles above another Fib (109.37) after breaching 109.20 on Wednesday.
  • CAD/AUD/NOK/SEK – The G10 laggards, with the Loonie retreating further through 200 DMA resistance towards 1.3300 and Aussie meandering within a 0.6778-60 range following conflicting Q3 Capex figures overnight and as Aud/Nzd hovers near the bottom of 1.0558-24 parameters. Elsewhere, the Scandi Crowns have reversed course after failing to maintain bullish momentum through key chart levels yesterday against the Euro, as Eur/Nok bounces off sub-10.0750 lows to 10.1150+ and Eur/Sek to almost 10.5700 from around 10.5300 at one stage. Soft crude prices may be a factor hampering the Norwegian Krona, but its Swedish counterpart is not deriving any support from decent business sentiment or retail sales.

In commodities, crude markets are lower, with prices weighed by a combination of trade concerns after US President Trump signed the Hong Kong Bill and yesterday’s surprise build in crude inventories and larger-than expected build in gasoline stocks revealed by the EIA. Front month WTI and Brent contracts for now trade just above support in the form of yesterday’s post EIA data lows at the USD 57.50/bbl and USD 62.45/bbl marks. Elsewhere in crude specific news; Russia said that the exclusion of Russian gas condensate production from their output calculations for OPEC+ is going to be a topic of discussion regarding agreements post March 2020 at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on December 6th, confirming overnight reports. The report noted that given the growth that the country has seen in gas output, condensate production has increased in tandem, leading ING to conclude that “this would help to explain why Russia has failed to fully comply with the production cut deal for much of this year.” Elsewhere, Libya’s El Feel oil field (70k BPD) is said to have resumed production, after violence in the region which disrupted production yesterday. Looking at the metals, gold is slightly firmer, but struggling to gain impetus despite the more downbeat macro backdrop and slightly softer buck; the precious metal is off yesterday’s USD 1452/oz lows, but struggling to break above the USD 1458/oz level, which has capped the price action so far this morning. Meanwhile, the return of Hong Kong related US/China trade jitters has hit copper prices, which have continued to slide during European trade.

US Event Calendar

  • US closed due to Thanksgiving holiday

Happy Thanksgiving to all our US readers but in reality I hope you’re not reading this and enjoying time with your family instead. I’m in Holland at our annual outlook presentation for Dutch clients that is held on this day every year. Expect markets to be quiet today although the reality is that things have already slowed to a crawl in the last 24 hours.

Having said that, the key headline overnight has been that President Trump has signed the legislation that expresses US support for Hong Kong protesters into law. As we have mentioned before, the bill requires annual reviews of Hong Kong’s special trade status under American law, as well as sanctions against any officials deemed responsible for human rights abuses or undermining the city’s autonomy. China’s Foreign Ministry said in response that the country will take strong counter measures if the US continues this way and added that US attempts to interfere in HK are doomed to fail. All eyes now on whether this impedes “phase one” negotiations.

Asian markets are trading lower on this news with the Nikkei (-0.10%), Hang Seng (-0.24%), Shanghai Comp (-0.38%) and Kospi (-0.28%) all down. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading -0.28% and in commodities, WTI crude oil prices are down -0.43% while, spot gold prices are up +0.16%. As for overnight data releases, Japan’s October retail sales fell by -7.1% yoy (vs. -3.8% yoy expected) as a planned sales tax hike came into effect and a super-typhoon kept shoppers at home. The decline in retail sales comes at a time when the Japanese government is mulling the size of a fiscal stimulus. An economy ministry official said after the release that sales were also hurt by a drop in overseas tourists, including visitors from South Korea, while car and appliance purchases slid by double-digits.

Before this, at 10pm GMT last night, the much anticipated YouGov MRP model was released. This model correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017, 9 days before the election when normal polls were still showing a Conservative majority. This model covers more than 100,000 potential voters and is much more seat by seat in its projections than normal polls. It projected a 68-seat Conservative majority, with 359 seats compared to Labour’s 211. The model predicts the SNP will control 43 seats and the Liberal Democrats 13 seats. Sterling rallied a few tenths of a percent on the news and it is trading +0.09% this morning. Just before the MRP model, a SavantsComRes Poll showed a Tory lead at 7pts down 3pt since last Thursday, but the market is clearly following the more statistically rigorous poll for now. Interestingly, the press release for the MRP suggested that if the current 11 point lead was cut to 7pt (as a couple of rival polls have shown this week) then it could lead to a hung parliament. So a healthy lead for the Tories but they need to maintain it if they want to win.

Staying with politics, it’s interesting to see that PredictIt now puts Elizabeth Warren’s odds for the 2020 democratic nomination below that of both Biden and more notably Buttigieg now. Warren led both as of just 5 days ago so there’s been a fairly significant shift away from her and towards the two more moderate candidates since her betting odds peaked on October 4th. This move has been mirrored in opinion polls, where Warren has lost 6pp of support since early October (to 15%) while Buttigieg has gained 4pp to (to 9%), while Biden has stayed steady at 30%. Demographically, Warren and Buttigieg draw most of their support from similar groups, namely college-educated white voters, who have apparently shifted their preferences recently. Partially, the fall in support for Warren has been driven by a weaker debate performance in early October, where multiple candidates attacked her over her expensive health care plan. It’s also notable that since her odds peaked on October 4th the S&P 500 has returned +6.83%. That was after markets struggled through August and them limped in September when her support was gaining. There were other things going on but there might be some correlation. All that said, the first primary is still far away on February 3, and the outcome remains tight and changeable.

Also overnight we heard from Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau and he said that as a first step in a strategic evaluation the ECB should be clarifying the inflation goal. He said, “First, about the definition of our primary objective of price stability, we have to clarify in particular our various time horizons as well as our commitment to symmetry,” while adding a second step would be that the review should look into whether a separation between monetary and macroprudential policies should be lifted. He also added that third step of the overhaul should be to look at how climate change can be incorporated into the ECB’s monetary-policy analysis. The symmetry line will be the key take-away today.Whether markets believe the ECB could ever achieve this is another matter.

Back to yesterday and at the margin sentiment leaned a bit more positive with the heavy slate of data releases in the end not doing much to change the narrative for the Fed outlook. We’ll come to that further down but just in terms of markets, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ nudged up +0.42% and +0.66% on low volumes, which sent both to another round of all-time highs. For the S&P that also means that of the 19 trading days in November, the index has seen a positive return in all but 5 of those sessions. The positive-leaning sentiment also saw US 10y yields nudge a bit higher, +2.8bps to 1.769% with 2yrs up 4bps, helping the 2s10s curve to flatten -1.5bps to 14.1bps. Meanwhile, in Europe the STOXX 600 gained +0.32%, taking it to just 1.03% away from its all-time high from April 2015. The DAX and FTSE100 both gained similar amounts, up +0.38% and +0.36%. Fixed income was more muted, with bund yields down -0.1bps and OATs up +0.3bps.

In other news, Colombia’s anti-government demonstrations lost steam yesterday as fatigue set in after seven straight days of protests. Elsewhere, the Chile’s peso (-2.39%), Brazil’s real (-0.50%) and Colombia’s peso (-0.92%) all hit record lows yesterday as the region continues to be marred by elevated political risks.

Onto the details of the US data now. In order of relative importance, the preliminary October durable and capital goods orders data broadly beat expectations with most notable being the readings for durable goods ex transport (+0.6% mom vs. +0.1% expected) and core capex orders (+1.2% mom vs. -0.2% expected). The latter helped the six-month annualised trend also bounce back into positive territory while the year-over-year rate also appears to be stabilising, which should encourage the Fed.

As for the GDP data, the second reading for Q3 was revised up two-tenths to 2.1% qoq saar, helped by inventories, business sentiment and slightly stronger consumer data. The lone weakness was Q3 core PCE prices, which were revised down to 2.1%, albeit still growth friendly, while growth in corporate profits essentially slowed to a halt, rising just +0.2% qoq versus +3.8% in Q2. It’s worth noting that corporate profits are now down -0.8% yoy so the trend has been much weaker, even though we’re a long way from the energy crisis lows. It highlights how well the S&P 500 has done to rally hard this year. Although a different subset of firms, the S&P has obviously benefited more from buybacks and liquidity than raw earnings.

Not long after this data we got the November Chicago PMI, which improved +3.1pts to 46.3 even if that was a shade disappointing relative to expectations for 47.0. While this reading is off the lows it still remains weak and the ISM adjusted Chicago PMI at 46.9 is only just above the cycle lows in September. The remaining data was a bit of a wash with softer personal income data for October (0.0% mom vs. +0.3% expected) offset by slightly stronger-than-expected real personal spending data (+0.1% mom vs. 0.0% expected) while the core PCE deflator for October was in line at +0.1% mom, though the yoy figure was weaker at 1.6% versus expectations for 1.7%. That will likely force the Fed to lower their inflation forecasts for the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, in Germany the October import price index matched expectations at -0.1% mom and November consumer confidence in France ticked up 2pts to 106 (vs. 104 expected) putting it at the highest since June 2017.

Looking at the day ahead, given the holiday in the US, data releases will be focused in Europe with preliminary November CPI due in Germany, October money and credit aggregates data due for the Euro Area and November confidence indicators for Europe. Away from the data we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Villeroy de Galhau, Coeure and Lane.

END
SWEDEN
This is what happens when you open the floodgates to Muslim immigrants..there culture is just not the same as Nordic nations.
(Watson/Summit News(

Stockholm: 51% Of Women Feel Unsafe Going Out At Night

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A new survey shows that 51 per cent of women in Stockholm, Sweden feel unsafe going out at night, while the number who feel insecure in the daytime has doubled.

According to the County Administrative Board’s new citizen survey, more than half of women feel insecure in the evenings while the overall figure who feel unsafe rose from 33 per cent to 44 per cent.

Since 2011, the proportion of citizens who feel unsafe in their own residential area during the daytime almost doubled from 11 per cent to 20 per cent.

“The growing insecurity in Stockholm is also underscored by the fact that more and more county residents are refraining from activities due to concern about being exposed to crime, such as walking, cinema or visiting acquaintances,” the report stated.

34 per cent of county residents now say they have ceased almost all outdoor activity due to fear of crime, compared to 20 per cent who gave the corresponding answer in 2011.

Sweden continues to experience huge problems with violent crime, shootings, explosions and grenade attacks, mostly as a result of turf warfare between rival migrant gangs. The country has accepted hundreds of thousands of new migrants, mainly from Africa and the Middle East, since 2015.

A recent opinion poll found that the anti-mass migration Sweden Democrats are now the most popular party in Sweden. The Sweden Democrats would get 24.2% of the votes if an election was held today, beating the ruling Social Democrats.

Back in October, Leif Östling, former CEO of trucking company Scania, warned that Sweden is heading towards civil war due to uncontrolled mass immigration.

We’ve taken in far too many people from outside. And we have. Those who come from the Middle East and Africa live in a society that we left almost a hundred years ago,” he said.

Meanwhile, new figures show that more Swedes than ever before are on anti-depressants, with a million of them taking the pharmaceutical drugs.

 

That’s one tenth of the population – double the amount who took anti-depressants in the early 2000s.

What could possibly explain the reason as to why people living in Sweden’s progressive utopia feel so unsafe and unhappy?

*  *  *

My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

END
Figures suggest that auto sales fro around the globe are expected to crash more than that recorded during 2008-2009
(zerohedge)

Global Auto Sales Expected To Crash More Than After The Financial Crisis

The global auto industry continues to deteriorate, namely due to broke consumers after a decade of low-interest rates and endless incentives.

The auto slowdown has sparked manufacturing recessions across the world, including manufacturing hubs in the US, Germany, India, and China. A prolonged downturn will likely result in stagnate global growth as world trade continues to decelerate into 2020.

The Fitch Ratings economics team published a new report earlier this week, first reported by CNBC, outlining how global auto sales are expected to crash at a rate not seen since the last financial crisis.

Global auto sales fell to 80.6 million in 2018 from 81.8 million in 2017, which was the first annual decline in nearly a decade. 2019 sales are likely to fall by 3.1 million, or 4%, to 77.5 million, the most significant drop since 2008. The slowdown in auto sales has been one of the largest contributors to the global manufacturing recession.

“The downturn in the global car market since the middle of 2018 has been a key force behind the slump in global manufacturing, and the car sales picture is turning out a lot worse than we expected back in May,” Brian Coulton, Fitch Chief Economist, said in a statement.

China has been labeled as the primary source of falling demand. YTD auto sales in the country are down 11% versus the first ten months of 2018. There are no signs that a recovery in the industry will be seen in 2020. The US and Western Europe are expected to see declines of 2% this year. Brazil, Russia, and India are expected to record a drop of at least 5.5% YTD.

“Structurally, environmental concerns about diesel cars — and anticipated regulatory responses — and the growth of ride-hailing and car-sharing schemes are weighing on auto demand,” Coulton told CNBC.

Fitch also warned that the global auto industry won’t rebound in 2020, and it’s also likely the industry has entered a low growth period.

“While we don’t see a further sharp decline in global manufacturing in 2020, the auto outlook is pointing to stabilization at best rather than any sharp rebound,” Coulton said.

And with no sharp rebound in the global auto sales projected for next year, there can be no monster rebound in global manufacturing in the coming quarters.

Nevertheless, as we’ve explained in recent months, the driver of global growth is China, and currently, China continues to see economic deceleration with no troughing in sight.

With that being said, global stocks have priced in a massive rebound in Global PMI, and, likely, the rebound won’t be coming early next year, making a case for blowoff tops in equities even stronger in the months ahead.

END
String of attacks rock the globe on this Black Friday: at the Hague, at London’s Bridge and in Rio Brazil
(zerohedge)

String Of Attacks Rocks Globe: Hague Stabbings Leave Several Injured, Man Takes Hostages In Rio

During a day where people from around the world join long lines to begin their Christmas shopping, a string of attacks in shopping centers and London’s famous London Bridge have raised the specter of terrorism and a possible retaliation for the killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

The string of attacks occurred almost one month to the day after Baghdadi’s murder at the hands of US special forces and one trained military dog.

The latest, a stabbing attack in the Hague (notoriously the home of the ICC and several other NGOs), has left several people injured (the exact number is unclear)om several peope

Emergency services said they had arrived on scene, and were

Politie Den Haag eo

@POL_DenHaag

Steekincident met meerdere gewonden aan de in . Hulpdiensten zijn ter plaatse. Meer info volgt via dit kanaal.

While this was the second stabbing attack in Europe in a matter of hours, another incident unfolded in the Brazilian city of Rio, as a man armed with a knife held six people hostage at a bar in Central Rio, as a local police Captain confirmed.

Centro de Operações Rio

@OperacoesRio

ATUALIZAÇÃO | RUA DO RESENDE: ocorrência policial interdita totalmente a via, na altura da Mem de Sá. Guarda Municipal e CET-Rio no local.

View image on Twitter

Centro de Operações Rio

@OperacoesRio

LAPA | RUA DO RESENDE segue fechada (ocorrência policial). Reflexos na Av. Mem de Sá. Av. República do Paraguai, Rua Texeira de Freitas e Rua do Riachuelo.
Evite a região da Lapa e opte pela Av. Pres. Vargas, Rua Visconde do Rio Branco ou T. Sta Bárbara.

View image on Twitter

At 3:34 pm, the first hostage, identified only as Sergio, was released. Another hostage, a woman named Lucia, reportedly the owner of the bar, was released shortly after.

Back in the Hague, a manhunt continues for the attackers, with officers reportedly looking for suspects aged between 45 and 50 wearing grey tracksuits.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Crude crashes as the Saudi become intolerant to OPEC cheating

(zerohedge)

Crude Crashes As Saudis Signal Intolerance To OPEC ‘Partners’ Cheating

WTI Crude is plunging this morning amid chatter that OPEC and allied crude producers are averse to deepening output cuts when they convene next week.

Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the kingdom’s thinking, Saudi Arabia probably will indicate it’s no longer willing to compensate for excessive production by other members of the cartel.

Additionally, the Tass news agency reported that Russia’s oil minister said it’d be better to postpone any new supply caps until April.

“The OPEC accord with Russia could be fraying a bit,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital.

“It undercuts and undermines everyone’s perception of the commitment.”

 

Despite Friday’s slump, New York-traded futures were on track for the biggest monthly advance since June amid optimism the the U.S. and China are closing in on a trade accord.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0995 DOWN .0016 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.58 UP 0.060 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2897   DOWN   0.0015  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO DEC 12/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3295 UP .0014 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 16 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0995 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 17.71 POINTS OR 0.60% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 547.24 POINTS OR 2.03%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,25%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 547.24 POINTS OR 2.03%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.71 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 25% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 115.23  POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1456.35

silver:$16.96-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.76% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.18 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.42 UP 5 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.40% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.08%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.42%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,23 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 81 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.36% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.59% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1019  UP     .0008 or 8 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.48 UP .047 OR YEN UP 5  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2941 UP .0030 POUND UP 30  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 9 basis points to 1.3289

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0325    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0301  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7468 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.08%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.77 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.20 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.26 DOWN 11  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 69.90  OR  0.94%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 9.20 POINTS OR .07%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7.55 POINTS 0.10%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 7.00 POINTS or 0.07%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 83.09 POINTS OR 0.36%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.67 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 60.78 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    64.30  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.1524 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 24 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.36 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.42//

 

 

BRENT :  60.73

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.77..plus one basis pt…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.20..plus one basis pt..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1017 ( UP 6   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.46 DOWN .050 (YEN UP 5 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.42 up 5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2933 UP 22  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7468

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.30   down 0.15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 15 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3277 UP 2 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0325  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0301 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.36%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 112.59 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 39.70 POINTS OR 0.40%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.62 CLOSED UP .87

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.906%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Precious Metals Pummeled In November As Stocks, Dollar Soar On Trade-Deal Hype

Despite what the market thinks…

Source: Bloomberg

…Jay Powell “is not the messiah”…

Chinese stocks were all lower this week, erasing the month’s gains, despite expectations for a China deal remaining high in the US markets…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were higher on the week and month led by UK’s FTSE…

Source: Bloomberg

US stocks soared this week (led by Small Caps) to cap another strong month (led by Nasdaq)…

Source: Bloomberg

Some selling today into month-end but US majors were all higher on the week

“Most Shorted” Stocks had their ‘best’ week since October (and best month since June) as the short-squeeze continues for a 3rd straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

Trade Deal hope was increasingly priced into stocks (3rd monthly rise in hope)…

Source: Bloomberg

Momo had another down month, Value was flat…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX ended lower for the 3rd month in a row, but today saw some weakness starting to creep back in…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields are higher on the month (led by the belly of the curve) with the long-end outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, yields are more mixed with the long-end lower and belly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields pushed up algorithmically today to tag unch for the week before fading fast…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened for the 3rd month in a row (but only thanks to today’s bounce off unch)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was higher for the 4th of last 5 months (best month since July)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended a strong week on a big down-note…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had another ugly month, saved a little by recent buying rebound into month-end…

Source: Bloomberg

But higher on the week with Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash leading the rebound…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices managed gains on the month despite collapsing today. Gold and Silver had a tough month…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude was clubbed like a baby seal today on Russia/Saudi headlines…

 

But remains the best month since June…

Gold was hit early in the month, breaking below $1500, and could not get back. This was gold’s second worst month in three years

This was silver’s second worst month since Nov 2016 (Trump’s election) dramatically underperforming gold…

Source: Bloomberg

Palladium was the only precious metal to manage gains on the month…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, NatGas prices have collapsed…

 

Finally, everything is awesome for everything this year…

Source: Bloomberg

Judging by the stock markets, China is seriously losing the trade war…

Source: Bloomberg

Because fun-durr-mentals don’t matter…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/WEDNESDAY NIGHT/USA

Futures Tumble After Trump Signs Bill Backing Hong Kong Protesters, Defying China

Less than an hour after Trump once again paraded with yet another all-time high in the S&P…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

New Stock Market Record today, AGAIN. Congratulations USA!

… and on day 510 of the trade war, it appears the president was confident enough that a collapse in trade talks won’t drag stocks too far lower, and moments after futures reopened at 6pm, the White House said that Trump had signed the Hong Kong bill backing pro-democracy protesters, defying China and making sure that every trader’s Thanksgiving holiday was just ruined.

In a late Wednesday statement from the White House, Trump said that:

I signed these bills out of respect for President Xi, China, and the people of Hong Kong. They are being enacted in the hope that Leaders and Representatives of China and Hong Kong will be able to amicably settle their differences leading to long term peace and prosperity for all.

Needless to say, no differences will be “settled amicably” and now China will have no choice but to retaliate, aggressively straining relations with the US, and further complicating Trump’s effort to wind down his nearly two-year old trade war with Beijing.

The legislation, S. 1838, which was passed virtually unanimously in both chambers, requires annual reviews of Hong Kong’s special trade status under American law – and sanctions against any officials deemed responsible for human rights abuses or undermining the city’s autonomy. The House cleared the bill 417-1 on Nov. 20 after the Senate passed it without opposition, veto-proof majorities that left Trump with little choice but to acquiesce, or else suffer bruising fallout from his own party. the GOP.

While many members of Congress in both parties have voiced strong support for protesters demanding more autonomy for the city, Trump had stayed largely silent, even as the demonstrations have been met by rising police violence.

Until now.

In the days leading up to Trump’s signature, China’s foreign ministry had urged Trump to prevent the legislation from becoming law, warning the Americans not to underestimate China’s determination to defend its “sovereignty, security and development interests.”

“If the U.S. insists on going down this wrong path, China will take strong countermeasures,” said China’s foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang at a briefing Thursday in Beijing. On Monday, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang summoned the U.S. ambassador, Terry Branstad to express “strong opposition” to what the country’s government considers American interference in the protests, including the legislation, according to statement.

The new U.S. law comes just as Washington and Beijing showed signs of working toward “phase-one” of deal to ease the trade war. Trump would like the agreement finished in order to ease economic uncertainty for his re-election campaign in 2020, and has floated the possibility of signing the deal in a farm state as an acknowledgment of the constituency that’s borne the brunt of retaliatory Chinese tariffs.

Last week China’s Vice Premier and chief trade negotiator Liu He said before a speech at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Beijing, that he was “cautiously optimistic” about reaching the phase one accord. He will now have no choice but to amend his statement.

 

In anticipation of a stern Chinese rebuke, US equity futures tumbled, wiping out most of the previous day’s gains…

… while the yuan slumped over 100 pips in kneejerk response.

Still, the generally modest pullback – the S&P was around 2,940 when Trump announced the Phase 1 deal on Oct 11 – suggests that despite Trump’s signature, markets expect a Chinese deal to still come through. That may be an aggressive and overly “hopeful” assumption, especially now that China now longer has a carte blanche to do whatever it wants in Hong Kong, especially in the aftermath of this weekend’s landslide victory for pro-Democracy candidates.

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA CONSUMERS ARE NOW ABANDONING BRICKS AND MORTAR AS THEY BUY ON LINE

(ZEROHEDGE)

US Consumers Abandon Brick And Mortar, Spend Money Online As Black Friday Begins

Reuters is reporting that consumers spent billions of dollars online on Thanksgiving day, while the era of people lining up around the block at stores on the eve of Black Friday could be a dying trend. Spotters surveyed stores across the country in the overnight, noted that traffic volumes at brick-and-mortar stores were soft.

Lauren Bitar, head of retail consulting at analytics firm RetailNext, told Reuters that department stores extended shopping incentives from Halloween through Black Friday.

The abnormally long periods of incentives leading into Black Friday could have an impact on holiday sales, Bitar said.

“We’ve seen many merchants start their promotions pretty much right after the trick-or-treaters have gone to bed,” she said.

Bitar said stores offering promotions for an entire month leading to Black Friday could erode “the spike that we have seen in sales dollars historically.”

The National Retail Federation (NRF) said at least half of the consumers polled earlier this month have already taken advantage of the deals ahead of Black Friday.

Spotters told Reuters that crowds at stores on the eve of Black Friday were low.

Many consumers, who are on the prowl — scanning for deals on Black Friday, are expected to use credit cards. Though credit card interest rates are at 25-year highs, this could limit holiday spending.

Nearly 165 million Americans are expected to take part in the holiday shopping season through the weekend.

The latest trend of consumers abandoning retail stores for online shopping could further stress retailers this year as the already retail apocalypse has forced record store closings.

Adobe Analytics is reporting that online transactions of top retailers could be around $7.5 billion in sales on Friday, a 20.5% YoY increase.

Adobe showed online spending on Thursday was $4.4 billion, representing a 20.2% YoY rise.

NRF’s retail sales forecast for November through December could increase by 3.8% to 4.2% YoY, for a total of around $730 billion.

The most significant retail trend this year could be consumers ditching retail stores for online shopping. There’s also a major risk that this holiday shopping season underwhelms:

 

Department store retail sales continue a downward sloped move.

Department store retail sales verse Amazon’s stock price.

 

END

Wow!! this is something:  central bankers are in panic mode over exuberant financial market fragiity and they warn that risks are underestimated

(zerohedge)

Central Bankers Panic Over Exuberant Financial Market “Fragility”, Warn Risks Are “Underestimated”

You know it’s bad when… even the central bankers are warning that the monster they’ve created is out of control.

As stocks have exploded higher in the face of declining earnings…

Source: Bloomberg

And collapsing macro-economic data…

Source: Bloomberg

Policy makers from the world’s central banks are suddenly raising cautionary flags at the potentially unsafe investing environment stoked by their efforts to flood economies with ultra-cheap money.

  • “While vulnerabilities related to low interest rates have the potential to grow, thus calling for caution and continued monitoring, so far, the financial system appears resilient” — Federal Reserve, Nov. 15.
  • “Very low interest rates, coupled with the large number of investors which have gradually increased the duration of their fixed income portfolios, could exacerbate potential losses if an abrupt repricing were to materialize” — ECB, Nov. 20.
  • “This type of environment can lead to an increase in risk‐taking, to assets being overvalued and to indebtedness increasing in an unsustainable manner” — Riksbank, Nov. 20.
  • “Many investors are focused on the search for yield and could be tempted to take on greater risk” — Bundesbank, Nov. 21.

Most notably, Bloomberg reports that the spate of recent financial stability assessments began Nov. 15 with the Fed, which warned that low rates could encourage riskier behavior such as eroding lending standards.

A prolonged period of low rates could also “spur reach-for-yield behavior, thereby increasing the vulnerability of the financial sector to subsequent shocks,” it said.

However, as Bloomberg notes, despite central banks’ qualms about side effects, there’s little sign that they’ll do any more than issue warnings.

“The Fed since September, the ECB as well, the BOJ, even the central bank of China is starting to provide some more easing,” Kevin Thozet, an investment strategist at Carmignac Gestion, told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.

That’s contributed to “a bull market of everything in 2019.”

Still, with a decoupling between stocks (soaring) and everything else (even global liquidity most recently)…

Source: Bloomberg

…Standard Chartered Plc, CEO Bill Winters, warns that the Fed’s recent difficulty in calming the repo market is instructive.

“We haven’t really had a test of the market, post-the financial crisis,” Winters said.

“I’m concerned that there’s a little bit more fragility in there than we’re aware.”

It was anything but transitory…

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Furious China Warns “The US Plot Is Doomed”, Threatens Retaliation After Trump Signs Hong Kong Democracy Bill – This move seriously interfered with Hong Kong affairs, seriously interfered with China’s internal affairs, and seriously violated international law and basic norms of international relations. It was a naked hegemonic act, and the Chinese government and people firmly opposed it…

    The Chinese Government is unwavering in its determination to oppose any external forces interfering in Hong Kong affairs, its determination to implement the “one country, two systems” policy, and its determination to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests. We advise the United States not to act arbitrarily, or China will resolutely counteract it, and all consequences arising therefrom must be borne by the United States…

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/futures-tumble-after-trump-signs-bill-backing-hong-kong-protesters-defying-china

Really, what can China do?  The US holds all the cards economically due to the hundreds of billions of dollars in trade benefits China receives from exporting to the US.  China needs the US a lot more than the US needs China.  For two decades, China’s leverage over the US was its promise to open its markets to US firms.  How’s that working out?

BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: This is why we haven’t seen a much steeper decline in luxury NYC condo prices: developers are getting loans to hold onto the units until sentiment improves, allowing them to avoid a fire sales. [What possibly could go wrong with this scheme?]

 

NYC’s Condo Glut Gives Boost to Silverstein’s Lending Business

Silverstein Properties Inc., looking to double its lending business to more than $1 billion in 2020, is eyeing so-called inventory loans in Manhattan neighborhoods like Gramercy, Tribeca and Midtown East, according to Michael May, president of Silverstein Capital Partners…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-27/nyc-s-condo-glut-gives-boost-to-silverstein-s-lending-business

Here’s How Reuters Gamed a Poll to Show Rising Support for Trump Impeachment

It gathered responses from 1,118 adults, including 528 Democrats, 394 Republicans and 111 independents… As we noted during the 2016 US election, Reuters/Ipsos was oversampling Democrats  when they found that Hillary Clinton had a giant lead over Donald Trump – using a poll that sampled 44% Democrats and 33% Republicans…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/reuters-peddles-democrat-heavy-poll-claiming-impeachment-support-growing

Emerson polling shows support for impeachment among Hispanics dropped from 73% in Oct to 48%.  Among blacks, support for impeachment tumbled from 58% to 37%.

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/11/21/november-national-poll-support-for-impeachment-declines-biden-and-sanders-lead-democratic-primary/

@GeorgePapa19: Looks like the NYTs reporting on the IG report confirms one thing: Halper, Turk, Downer, Mifsud were not “FBI informants” so they could only be one other informant, CIA. The Times has characterized all as “government informants” for a year. Bad news for Brennan. Durham probe.

BBG’s @EliLake: The FBI never tried to place informants inside the Trump campaign. They only ran informants to solicit information from people who worked for the campaign. Is it just me, or does this seem like a distinction without a difference.

Russia Inquiry Review Is Expected to Undercut Trump Claim of F.B.I. Spying

The F.B.I. never tried to place undercover agents or informants inside the Trump campaign, a highly anticipated inspector general’s report is expected to find.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/27/us/politics/fbi-trump-campaign-inspector-general.html

Undercover Female FBI Agent Infiltrated al-Qaeda; Then FBI Bosses Terminated the Top Secret Operation & Buried Key Intel BEFORE 9/11 Terror Strikes

But the FBI decided bin Laden wasn’t very important. We were (already) inside for two years, beginning in 1998. We did obtain a lot of their emails.” But Mogilner stresses the FBI and the U.S. intelligence apparatus could have had ALL al-Qaeda’s emails…

    The FBI didn’t want anything to do with bin Laden’s potential infiltration of Washington D.C. or to ascertain if portions of the news media – and elected officials – were receiving terror-backed financing. Is this why Bill Clinton’s administration and his FBI walked away from the ‘Muslim Hacker’s Club?’…

https://truepundit.com/undercover-female-fbi-agent-infiltrated-al-qaeda-then-fbi-terminated-the-top-secret-operation-buried-incredible-intel-just-before-9-11/

 

Well that is all for today

I will update the gold comex data once i receive it.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

I will see you Monday night.

 

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