NOV 27//GOLD DOWN $6.10 TO $1454.15 AND SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TO $16.97 WITH TOMORROW BEING OPTIONS EXPIRY//UNBELIEVABLE LIQUIDATION OF GOLD COMEX CONTRACT OF 127,000..TOTALLY UNPRECEDENTED//HUGE GOLD EXCH. FOR PHYSICAL OF 15,000 PLUS CONTRACTS//HUGE MARGIN CALLS ON HONG KONG MARKET SCARING INVESTORS//MORE THAN 50% OF CHINA’S BANKS FAIL STRESS TEST/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1454.15 DOWN $6.10    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$16.97 DOWN 8 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) : 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1454.50

 

silver:  $16.95

 

We now enter options expiry for the November contract month.

The Comex options expired :  Monday Nov 25/2019

London’s /LBMA and OTC Nov 29.2019

TWO more reading days before first day notice

 

gold/silver prices will be subdued until the conclusion of the week.

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/12

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ (0.00622 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1731 NOTICES FOR 173100 OZ  (5.3841 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR NOV

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 532 for 2,660,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7151 DOWN 60 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7530 UP 374

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI  FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 3453 CONTRACTS FROM 213,056 DOWN TO 209,603 DESPITE THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR NOV 0,; DEC  2729 AND, MARCH: 585 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3314 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3342 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3314 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.57 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ  STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.665     MILLION OZ  STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

TUESDAY, THE CROOKS ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER ATTEMPTED  RAID ON SILVER AND GOLD AS WE ARE HEADING FOR LBMA/OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY ON FRIDAY… THEY AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR  UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE ( IT WAS UP 14 CENTS ). ALSO OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE   SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A SMALL 139 CONTRACTS. OR 0.695 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV:

41,034 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 41,034 CONTRACTS) OR 205.170 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2159 CONTRACTS OR 10.79 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  205.17 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 29.31% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1797.01   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3314, DESPITE THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3314 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED: 139 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3314 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 3453  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.05 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.0500 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ// 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8,615 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING CLOSER TO THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 669,268. SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS BEEN EXHAUSTED.  

 

THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED WITH A SMALL $3.10 PRICING GAIN ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// YESTERDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,876 CONTRACTS:

NOV 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  15,876 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 669,268,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,172 CONTRACTS: 7296 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 15,876 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 23,172 CONTRACTS OR 2,317,200 OZ OR 72.07 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $3.10 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 72.07  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED AND FAILED. THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $3.10) .THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED IN GOLD AND WILL MORPH INTO SILVER AS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

DUE TO THE FACT THAT DECEMBER IS AN ACTIVE MONTH SPREADING ACTIVITY IN SILVER WAS ALSO ORCHESTRATED BY OUR CROOKED OFFICIAL/BANKER SECTOR ALONG WITH GOLD..

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 176,068 CONTRACTS OR 17,606,800 oz OR 547.62 TONNES (19 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9266 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 547.62 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 547.62/3550 x 100% TONNES =15.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5705.67  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 7,196 DESPITE THE SMALL  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($3.10)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 15,876 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 15,876 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 23,172 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

15,876 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 7,296 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 72.07 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.10 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  2 notice(s) filed upon for 200 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///

NOV 26/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 896.48 tonnes

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: 

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ PAPER SILVER (NOT PHYSICAL) AND THIS WAS USED TO SUPPRESS THE SILVE RPRICE.

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3453 CONTRACTS from 213,056 DOWN TO 209,603 AND FURTHER FROM  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR NOV. 0; FOR DEC  2729: AND MARCH: 585 CONTRACTS:    AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3314 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 3033  CONTRACTS TO THE 3314 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZE SIZED GAIN OF 281 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 0.695 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 3314 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.86 POINTS OR 0.13%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 40.08 POINTS OR 0.15%   /The Nikkei closed UP 40.08. POINTS OR 0.15%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .88%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0248 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0248 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0232 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/USA/WEWORK

if IPO’s falter for these unicorns, the whole ball of wax comes melting down

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

i)We have another Chinese bank experiencing a bank run. Today it is small bank Yingkou Coastal bank that found itself scrambling to stop a run  up.  It was forced to raise its deposit rate to 4.4% from 4.2% to stem the outflow. The bank’s problem is that it is difficult to find returns greater than 4.4% and this is its self destructive “doom loop”

(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA

Interesting: China has a huge problem in that more than half of their banks fail the Central Bank stress test

(zerohedge)

iii)China loves to fudge industrial numbers so when you see a plunge of 9.9% year over year, you know that conditions inside this nation is in problem mode

(zerohedge)

iv)HONG KONG

We are beginning to see more or these and it is big trouble for Hong Kong citizens and our friendly bankers. We witnessed two stocks plummet by 75% within minutes as the owners of the listled company received a margin call.  The protests are having a devastating effect on the city.

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK/USA

Another Ex Deutsche bank executive linked to millions of loans to Donald Trump commits suicide

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/USA

Iran has quelled the protests as they now take their victory lap by stating that they will destroy the USA and Israel

(zerohedge)

IRAN

This is not good:  Iran arrests 8 journalists after Pompeo calls for a crackdown on internet blockage

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)Michael Every is not fooled:  this is where our global central bankers are heading!!

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

ii)Germany/the global markets/Audi

German car maker Audi reacts to the global auto industry implosion: they slash 9500- jobs

(zerohedge)

iii)John Deere warns that sales would drop through 2020 with the ongoing trade war with China

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The riskiest bank in the USA: JPMorgan..Russ and Pam Martens tells why!

(Pam and Russ Martens)

ii)We are now witnessing more states legalizing gold and silver as legal tender.  Today it is South Carolina

(Maharrey/Libertarian Institute)

iii)Peter Schiff touches on the story we brought to you on Monday: Poland repatriates 100 tonnes of gold back to Warsaw. They are also purchasing good quantities of physical gold each month(Schiffgold.com)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)Durable good s order remain down year over year although they rebounded nicely in October

(zerohedge)

ii)We now have revisions to 3rd quarter GDP and it unexpected;y grew by 2.1% as the Fed was cutting rates.  The 4th quarter GDP is tracking below 0.5%

(zerohedge)

iii)This is a hard data report: and it is very important for GDP calculations:  USA spending growth is the weakest since Feb

(zerohedge)

iv)After a strong new home sales and strong existing home sales, they were expecting a strong pending number. Nope..did not get it(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Interesting:  American citizens cannot afford lawyers anymore as the numbers representing themselves increase(zerohedge)

b)Trump is ready to label cartels terror groups and this will allow entry by the USA into Mexico freely to capture them as well as stopping the banks that allow them to launder the money

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7,296 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 669,268 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $3.10 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 15,876 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR NOV; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 15,876 ; FEB: 0  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  15,876 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 23,172 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 15,876 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 7296 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE WITH THE CONSIDERABLE RAID INITIATED, AS IT ROSE BY $3.10. AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 23,172 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  23,172 CONTRACTS OR 2,317,200 OZ OR 72.07 TONNES.

We are now in the  NON active contract month of NOV.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Today we have 2 contracts still standing for a LOSS of 10 contracts. Yesterday we had 12 notices served upon so we have a GAINED 2 contracts or an additional 200 oz will  stand as these guys could not find any metal over here as they morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next active delivery month after NOV is the  active contract month of DECEMBER. Here we had an unbelievable loss of 128,245 contracts( with a zero loss of o.i. due to the liquidation of spreaders) down to 42,677.   The next non active contract month of January saw its OI RISE by 1228 contracts UP to 2056. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a huge 109,128 gain in contracts up to 420,096.  So if we take the loss in December of 128,245 and the gain of 109,128 in February and the gain of 15,876 (ex for Physicals) and the 1228 gain in January,  you basically have everything in balance.

 

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY:

 

WITH 1 READING DAY TO GO:  NOV 2018:  43,392 OI CONTRACTS STILL STANDING

AND TODAY:  42,677 CONTRACTS STANDING.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE LAST YR: 27.57 TONNES OF GOLD INITIALLY STOOD

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

 

WE HAD 2 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  200 OZ. (0.00622 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3,453 CONTRACTS FROM 213,056 DOWN TO 209,603 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S  OI COMEX FALL OCCURRED DESPITE A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.  HERE WE HAVE 0 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER NOVEMBER WE HAVE THE  ACTIVE MONTH OF DECEMBER and here he has a loss of 18,505 contracts down to 16,335.  After December we have the non active month of January and here we see that we gained 123 contracts up to 841. MARCH  saw an increase of 14,486 contracts up to 154,105

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY:

WITH 1 DAY BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE:

NOV 2018 :  17,745 OI CONTRACTS STILL STANDING

NOV 2019:   15,991 OI CONTRACTS STILL STANDING

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE LAST YR: 17.53 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil, OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 635,796  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  438,197  contracts

 

 

 

FINAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 27/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

321,500.000 oz

10,000 kilobars

 

an absolute phony entry.

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2 notice(s)
 200 OZ
(0.00622 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
0.7807 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1731 notices
173100 OZ
5.3841 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 2 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account and this is a phony entry

i) Into JPMorgan:  321,500.000 oz

total; 10,000 kilobars and this is a fraudulent entry.There is no way that they brought in any kilobars

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 321,500.000   oz

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia:  160.75 oz and this is 5 kilobars and also a phony entry

 

total withdrawals:  160.75 oz

 

We had 3 adjustment

i) Out of  Int Delaware :

1,929.000 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of Delaware and this landed into the customer account :  and a deemed settlement  (60 kilobars/phony entry)  .06 tonnes

ii) Out of HSBC:  106,086.648 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of HSBC

iii) Out of Scotia:  7610.764 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Scotia.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE NOV 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1731) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV (2 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 173,100 OZ OR 5.3841 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of NOV

Thus the FINAL standings for gold for the NOV/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1731 x 100 oz)  + (2)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today 2 x (100 oz )which equals 173,100 oz standing OR 5.3841 TONNES in this  active delivery month of NOV

We GAINED 2 contracts OR 200 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL  STAND AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATE A FIAT BONUS

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 27.38 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 4 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..     OCT…..   37.99 TONNES

AND NOW NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT, IN SEPT, 3 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.60155 TONNES. IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST FEW MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 4.4614 TONNES SETTLED (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 6.625 TONNES)

IF WE ADD THE FOUR DELIVERY MONTHS: 75.9796

TONNES- 11.1464 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 64.8332 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 26.943 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1103,776.364 oz or  34.33 tonnes 
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 86,622.27 oz (26.943 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989) 
total registered pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,828,026.534 oz 274.59 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.
DECREASE IN GOLD OZ PLEDGED:  503.01 OZ ATTRIBUTED TO  JPMORGAN??? from an adjustment????

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 103 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.

FINAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
NOV 27 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,197,521.551 oz
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  532 contracts

2,630,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.10% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/315.22 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil   oz

 

we have 2 withdrawal out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Delaware:  1,084.316 oz

ii) out of Bank of Nova Scotia: 1,196,437.235  oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 1,197,521.551  oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) out of Int Delaware:

83,679.2252 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of Int Delaware and we will deem this as a settlement.

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  76.899 million

total dealer + customer silver:  313.206 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 532 x 5,000 oz = 2,660,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (0) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the FINAL standings for silver for the NOV/2019 contract month: 532 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (0)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals 2,630,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month. 

WE GAINED 0 contracts or an additional 30,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  133,567 CONTRACTS //volume increases due to raid

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 110,169 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 110,169 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 550 million  OZ 78.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.65% ((NOV 27/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.70% to NAV (NOV 27/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.65%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.52 TRADING 13.96///DISCOUNT  3.89

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 27/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 896.48 tonnes

*IN LAST 713 TRADING DAYS: 39.89 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 613 TRADING DAYS: A NET 127.16 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

 

 

NOV 27:  SLV INVENTORY

372.864 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.02 and libor 6 month duration 1.91

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .11

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.96%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.94

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Poland Repatriates Gold From Bank of England Storage to ‘Show Strength of its Economy’

Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance

Poland Repatriates Gold From Bank of England Storage to ‘Show Strength of its Economy’

Poland brought about 100 tons of gold home from the Bank of England in a bid to demonstrate the strength of nation’s $586 billion economy, central bank Governor Adam Glapinski said.

The institution bought about 126 tons in 2018 and 2019 to increase its gold reserves to 228.6 tons. As a result, the country has become the 22nd-biggest bullion holder in the world and has the biggest reserves of the metal in the European Union’s east, the central bank said.

Glapinski said the central bank will keep bringing the precious metal home if the “reserve situation is favorable.”

“The gold symbolizes the strength of the country,” Glapinski told reporters on Monday. Poland could generate “multi-billion” profits if it sold its holdings but has no plans to do so, he said.

Central banks, including those of Hungary and Serbia, loaded up on gold in the first half of 2019, helping push total bullion demand to a three-year high, according to the World Gold Council. Central banks around the world have been adding to reserves as economic growth slows, trade and geopolitical tensions rise, and authorities seek to diversify away from the dollar.

Poland had $121.9 billion in official reserves, including gold, as of Oct. 31.

Courtesy of Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold edges lower as stock-market rally takes shine off haven assets

Gold softens as trade deal signs boost equities, dollar

Deutsche Bank sells $50 billion in assets to Goldman Sachs amid overhaul

US economy grew at a moderate 2.1% annual rate in Q3

Approximately 731 banks and 140 government sites were torched in recent unrest in Iran

Watch Podcast Here

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

26-Nov-19 1457.65 1454.65, 1133.76 1131.86 & 1322.96 1321.11
25-Nov-19 1459.45 1458.40, 1133.41 1130.84 & 1325.33 1323.35
22-Nov-19 1471.30 1464.45, 1143.05 1140.22 & 1330.35 1326.06
19-Nov-19 1464.90 1468.45, 1132.37 1134.23 & 1323.68 1325.86
18-Nov-19 1458.40 1467.65, 1124.86 1132.59 & 1318.10 1325.88
15-Nov-19 1465.60 1466.90, 1138.04 1136.41 & 1329.59 1327.84
14-Nov-19 1467.65 1466.65, 1141.39 1142.52 & 1334.24 1333.18
13-Nov-19 1463.45 1462.90, 1138.86 1140.62 & 1328.23 1328.46
12-Nov-19 1455.00 1452.05, 1134.03 1130.42 & 1319.69 1318.17
11-Nov-19 1465.50 1458.70, 1144.41 1132.39 & 1328.33 1321.87

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The riskiest bank in the USA: JPMorgan..Russ and Pam Martens tells why!

(Pam and Russ Martens)

Pam and Russ Martens: 2008 Fed email about ‘intra-day bankruptcy’ illuminates today’s repo scare

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Tuesday, November 26, 2019

There is one phrase on Wall Street that instills fright like no other — “intra-day bankruptcy” — especially if it’s describing a bankruptcy filing by a highly interconnected Wall Street firm.

On July 20, 2008, a Federal Reserve economist, Patrick Parkinson, used that phrase in an email to describe fears that Lehman Brothers might have to make an intra-day bankruptcy filing and to speculate on what was going on in the minds of the folks at JPMorgan Chase, Lehman’s clearing bank, regarding how it might get “stuck” with Lehman’s overnight loans.

… 

The email describes perfectly what is highly likely going on in the minds of top executives at JPMorgan Chase today and why the Fed has been pumping hundreds of billions of dollars each week into unnamed trading houses on Wall Street since September 17. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/11/intra-day-bankruptcy-a-2008-email…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

The article in its entirety

Wall Street on Parade:

It’s Official: JPMorgan Chase Is the Riskiest Big Bank in the U.S.

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: November 25, 2019 ~

The National Information Center is a little-known repository of bank data collected by the Federal Reserve. It is part of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC), which was created by federal legislation to create uniformity in the examination of U.S. financial institutions by the numerous federal regulators of banks.

Quietly, the National Information Center has done something that has likely made Jamie Dimon hopping mad. Dimon is the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase who has bragged perpetually in his annual letter to shareholders about how the bank he leads has a “fortress balance sheet.” But now the National Information Center has created a graphic profile of JPMorgan Chase versus its peer banks. The graphics crunch a series of important financial metrics at JPMorgan Chase, showing it to be the riskiest bank in the United States.

The data used to create these graphics come from what is known as the “Systemic Risk Report” or form FR Y-15 that banks have to file with the Federal Reserve. To measure the systemic risk that a particular bank poses to the stability of the U.S. financial system, the data is broken down into five categories of system risk: size, interconnectedness, substitutability, complexity, and cross-jurisdictional activity. Those measurements consist of 12 pieces of financial information that banks have to provide on their Y-15 forms. That data shows that in 7 out of 12 financial metrics, JPMorgan Chase has the riskiest footprint among its peer banks.

One of the 12 financial metrics measures the Intra-Financial System Liabilities of each bank. This shows how much money a particular bank has at risk at other banks by using inputs such as how much of its funds it has on deposit with, or has lent to, other financial institutions; the unused portion of any credit lines it has committed to other financial institutions; and its holdings of debt, equity, commercial paper, etc. of other financial institutions. The idea, obviously, is to understand if another Citigroup or Lehman Brothers were to occur, could it bring your bank down.

JPMorgan Chase looks particularly dicey in this regard. The Y-15 data shows that it has $377.9 billion in Intra-Financial System Liabilities which is more than $100 billion larger than the next two largest banks in this category, Bank of New York Mellon and Citigroup.

Intra-Financial System Liabilities

Source: National Information Center; Compiled from Federal Reserve Y-15 Financial Data from JPMorgan Chase

Another scary category is OTC Derivatives. OTC (over-the-counter) means derivatives that are not traded on an exchange and are not being cleared by a central clearing house. In effect, it means a private contract between your bank and some potentially non-credit worthy financial institution. (Recall how the giant life insurer, AIG, blew itself up in 2008 because it was holding tens of billions of dollars in derivative contracts for the biggest banks on Wall Street that it could not make good on. The situation was so dire that the Federal Reserve actually allowed AIG to secretly borrow billions of dollars from its Discount Window, even though it was an insurance company, not a bank. AIG had to be eventually nationalized by the U.S. government for a time during the financial crisis – all because it got involved with Wall Street’s derivatives.)

Among the biggest banks on Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase has the largest exposure to derivatives, with $45.2 trillion exposure, according to the National Information Center graphic. Yes, we said “trillion.” The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, however, which is the federal regulator of national banks and reports the derivative exposures of the biggest banks on a quarterly basis, shows that as of June 30 of this year, JPMorgan Chase’s notional derivatives (face amount) stood at an even larger $55.7 trillion. (See Table 1 in the Appendix here.) In other words, while JPMorgan Chase is backing away from lending in the repo market, forcing the Federal Reserve to effectively bail out Wall Street’s lack of liquidity in overnight lending, that hasn’t stopped JPMorgan Chase from increasing its systemic risk footprint in other areas.

Source: National Information Center, Compiled from Federal Reserve Y-15 Financial Data from JPMorgan Chase

Source: National Information Center; Compiled from Federal Reserve Y-15 Financial Data from JPMorgan Chase

But the scariest data point by far is the graph showing where JPMorgan Chase stands in the “Payments” system of the U.S. banking system. According to its own data submitted on its December 31, 2018 Y-15 filing, it was responsible for $320.65 trillion in payments in the prior four quarters. That’s 95 percent larger than the next largest peer bank in the Payments category, Bank of New York Mellon, which is responsible for $163.23 trillion in payments.

Source: National Information Center, Compiled from Federal Reserve Y-15 Financial Data from JPMorgan Chase

Source: National Information Center, Compiled from Federal Reserve Y-15 Financial Data from JPMorgan Chase

It is perhaps no coincidence that the one thing the federal regulators are not compiling in this breakdown of what constitutes systemic risk to the U.S. financial system is how many criminal activities a bank has been engaged in. On that front, JPMorgan Chase also ranks as the scariest big bank in the United States. It is the only U.S. bank in history to have survived three criminal felony charges, to which it pleaded guilty, while keeping the same Chairman and CEO in place, Jamie Dimon. In September, JPMorgan Chase scored another first in the crime category. As far as anyone on Wall Street can remember, it was the first time a trading desk at a big Wall Street bank was charged with running it as a racketeering enterprise and had its traders charged under the RICO statute, which is typically used to prosecute organized crime.

We suspect the reason that the Federal Reserve does not want to see criminal activity at banks evaluated as a source of systemic risk to the U.S. financial system is because that might suggest that the Federal Reserve should not be wearing three hats simultaneously. It’s currently the U.S. central bank in charge of U.S. monetary policy while it is also the primary regulator to the most dangerous and largest bank holding companies — while it is also the lender-of-last resort that can magically conjure up hundreds of billions of dollars each week to bail out the New York mega banks it has negligently supervised.

Editor’s Note: The bar graphs appear to be slightly off from the actual financial data reported by JPMorgan Chase on its December 31, 2018 Y-15. We believe that is because the bar graphs were compiled from more current Y-15 data.

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Nicholas Biezanek

1:40 AM (4 hours ago)

to meWilliam
Hi Harvey/Bill,
I see that the JP Morgan pledged gold line item on yesterday’s COMEX Report has vanished -a one day wonder. . Pledged gold entries just appear-there is no receipt or adjustment entry that gives rise to this inventory line item.Instead an adjustment of 503 troy ounces was made between registered and eligible gold in the JP Morgan warehouse.
503 troy ounces in the context of warehouse depositories the size of JP Morgan is neither here nor there. On 21st November 2019 JP MORGAN made a one sided adjustment to its eligible silver inventory of just 0.2 troy ounces. The COMEX maintains all  its inventory reports to THREE decimal places of one troy ounce. I would applaud such pristine accuracy except for the fact that the whole COMEX corrupt system has descended into an absolute farce in the last two years.As of today, the EFP transfers in respect of gold now total a shade under 13,000 TONNES since Jan 2018 and NO ONE HAS A CLUE AS TO THE PRECISE NATURE OF THIS FIGURE which is more than 4 times annual gold production.
Regards
Nicholas
end
We are now witnessing more states legalizing gold and silver as legal tender.  Today it is South Carolina
(Maharrey/Libertarian Institute)

South Carolina Legal Tender Act Would Treat Gold & Silver As Money

Authored by Michael Maharrey via The Libertarian Institute, 

A bill prefiled in the South Carolina House would make gold and silver coins legal tender in the state. Passage of this bill would take a step toward creating currency competition in South Carolina and undermine the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money.

Rep. Stewart Jones filed House Bill 4678 (H.4678) on Nov. 20. Under the proposed law, “gold and silver coins minted foreign or domestic shall be legal tender in the State of South Carolina under the laws of this State. No person or other entity may compel another person or other entity to tender or accept gold or silver coin unless agreed upon by the parties.”

Practically speaking, this would allow South Carolina residents to use gold or silver coins to pay taxes and other debts owed to the state. In effect, it would put gold and silver on the same footing as Federal Reserve notes.

The phrase, “unless agreed upon by the parties” has important legal ramifications. This wording reaffirms the court’s ability, and constitutional responsibility according to Article I, Section 10, to require specific performance when enforcing such contracts. If voluntary parties agree to be paid, or to pay, in gold and silver coin, South Carolina courts could not substitute any other thing, e.g. Federal Reserve Notes, as payment.

South Carolina could become the fourth state to recognize gold and silver as legal tender. Utah led the way, reestablishing constitutional money in 2011. Wyoming and Oklahoma have since joined.

The effect has been most dramatic in Utah where United Precious Metals Association (UMPA) was established after the passage of the Utah Specie Legal Tender Act and the elimination of all taxes on gold and silver. UPMA offers accounts denominated in U.S. minted gold and silver dollars. The company also recently released the “Utah Goldback.” UPMA describes it as “the first local, voluntary currency to be made of a spendable, beautiful, physical gold.”

South Carolina has already repealed the sales tax on gold and silver. That removed one barrier to using gold and silver in everyday transactions. Capital gains taxes are still imposed on gold and silver for state income tax purposes. After establishing gold and silver as legal tender, South Carolina should repeal the capital gains tax to completely open the door to using it as money.

As the Sound Money Defence League explains, “Practically speaking, state laws that recognize gold and silver as money restore a government view of precious metals as the favored form of money – a currency rather than a piece of property or other asset. Using this logic, it would be inappropriate for a state to levy taxes when the precious metals are used or exchanged.”

Background

The United States Constitution states in Article I, Section 10, “No State shall…make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.” Currently, all debts and taxes in South Carolina are either paid with Federal Reserve Notes (dollars) which were authorized as legal tender by Congress or with coins issued by the U.S. Treasury — very few of which have gold or silver in them.

Passage of H.4678 would reestablish gold and silver as legal tender in the state and take a step toward that constitutional requirement, ignored for decades in every state. It would also begin the process of abolishing the Federal Reserve system by attacking it from the bottom up – pulling the rug out from under it by working to make its functions irrelevant at the state and local levels, and setting the stage to undermine the Federal Reserve monopoly by introducing competition into the monetary system.

Constitutional tender expert Professor William Greene said when people in multiple states actually start using gold and silver instead of Federal Reserve Notes, it would effectively nullify the Federal Reserve and end the federal government’s monopoly on money.

“Over time, as residents of the state use both Federal Reserve notes and silver and gold coins, the fact that the coins hold their value more than Federal Reserve notes do will lead to a “reverse Gresham’s Law” effect, where good money (gold and silver coins) will drive out bad money (Federal Reserve notes). As this happens, a cascade of events can begin to occur, including the flow of real wealth toward the state’s treasury, an influx of banking business from outside of the state – as people in other states carry out their desire to bank with sound money – and an eventual outcry against the use of Federal Reserve notes for any transactions.”

Once things get to that point, Federal Reserve notes would become largely unwanted and irrelevant for ordinary people. Nullifying the Fed on a state by state level is what will get us there.

What’s Next

H.4678 will be officially introduced and referred to the House Judiciary Committee when the regular session adjourns on Jan. 13, 2020. It will have to pass committee by a majority vote before moving forward in the legislative process.

end

Peter Schiff touches on the story we brought to you on Monday: Poland repatriates 100 tonnes of gold back to Warsaw. They are also purchasing good quantities of physical gold each month

(Schiffgold.com)

Poland Repatriates 100 Tons Of Gold In “Symbol Of Strength

Via SchiffGold.com,

Poland has repatriated 100 tons of gold from England. National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński announced the yellow metal’s return home on Monday.

“The gold symbolizes the strength of the country,” Glapiński told reporters.

He noted that the country could generate multi-million dollar profits if it sold its gold reserves, although there are no plans to do so.

Glapiński said the Polish central bank will continue to bring its precious metal home if the “reserve situation is favorable.”

Poland has also been aggressively increasing its gold reserves. The National Bank of Poland added 100 tons of the yellow metal to its hoard through the first half of 2019. In a statement announcing the plans earlier this year, Glapiński said he was “proud” of the moves.

We managed to increase the strategic reserves of gold and take steps to repatriate a large part of Polish gold to the country. By implementing our constitutional, statutory and simply patriotic commitment, we not only build the economic strength of the Polish state, but also create reserves that will safeguard its financial security. This is the global trend, but also the expectation of Polish society.”

Poland began accumulating gold last year when it added 7 tons of the yellow metal to its reserves in June and another 3 tons in August. At the time, it was the largest gold purchase by Poland since 1998, and it was the first EU country to add a significant amount of gold to its reserves since 1983. It bought another 15.7 tons through the final months of 2018 and 100 tons through the first half of this year. That brought the country’s total reserves to 228.6 tons, according to the NBP statement.

Gold is the ‘most reserve’ of reserve assets: it diversifies the geopolitical risk and is a kind of anchor of trust, especially in times of tension and crises.”

Poland now ranks as the 22nd-biggest holder of bullion in the world.

Poland joins a number of other Eastern European nations in buying gold. Serbia added 9 tons of gold to its reserves in October, and late last year, the Hungarian central bank announced it boosted its gold reserves 10-fold.

A number of countries have also repatriated some or all of their gold reserves over the last several years, most recently Hungary and Romania. In the summer of 2017, Germany completed a project to bring half of its gold reserves back inside its borders. The country moved some $31 billion worth of the yellow metal back to Germany from vaults in England, France and the US. In 2015, Australia launched efforts to bring half of its reserves home. The Netherlands and Belgium also launched repatriation programs. Even the state of Texas has put a plan in place to bring its gold within state borders.

Gold repatriation underscores the importance of holding physical gold where you can easily access it. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and “paper gold” have their place. But true security and stability come from physical possession of precious metals. If you can’t hold it in your hand, you don’t really possess it. That’s exactly why these countries are bringing their gold home, safe within their own vaults.

report by Bullion Star noted that “Although the official language in the press release is diplomatic, the NBP makes it clear that there is a real risk to holding its gold in London.” According to the report, England’s “brazen” confiscation of Venezuela’s gold may have increased unease about holding gold abroad.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0248/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0232   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 3.86 POINTS OR 0.12%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 40.08 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 64.45 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.32/Euro FALLS TO 1.1010

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.13/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.57 and Brent: 64.50

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.37%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.19% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.56: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.40

3k Gold at $1459.00 silver at: 17.05   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.13 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9978 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0983 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.37%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.75% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.18%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7617..

Global Markets Grateful For Trade Deal Optimism, Levitate To All Time Highs

With little out there to threaten the melt-up in global stocks, and with the occasional “trade deal optimism” trickling in from Trump’s tweets or Chinese soundbites, traders were thankful for yet another all time high in S&P futures while world markets made another push for a record high on Wednesday after Trump said Washington and Beijing were in the final throes of inking an initial trade deal.

The MSCI’s all-country world index was just within 0.4%, or 2 points, of its record high from January 2018…

… while US equity futures rose all night until they rebounded off the giant gamma wall at 3,150…

… which we discussed previously has set the trading range for the S&P between 3,100 and 3,150. And so, having hit the top end of the dealer sweet spot, the S&P may now revert lower… but don’t hold your breath.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index also rose to within 1% of its record close, with 15 of 19 sector groups advancing amid very subdued volumes.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced for a fourth day, led by tech firms, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index adding  0.3% in overall quiet trading, and while Shanghai struggled after Chinese industrial company profits plunged the most since 2011, Australian shares reached record highs and Japan’s Nikkei drew support from the growing likelihood of extra fiscal stimulus, while the Topix added 0.3%, driven by electronics and machinery makers, as foreigners extended their buying of Japan equities for a seventh week, its longest stretch in two years. A senior Japanese ruling party official said on Wednesday he believed the government was striving to compile a supportive spending package worth about 10 trillion yen ($92 billion).

The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.1% lower, with China Yangtze Power and Ping An Insurance Group among the biggest drags. Profits at Chinese industrial companies fell for a third month, dropping by the most since at least 2011. India’s Sensex rose, heading for a fresh record, as Housing Development Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank offered strong support.

As usual, the big topic of discussion, or rather diversion, was trade, even though China continues to slow not due to the trade war but its inability to stimulate a credit impulse, while the only reason why US stocks are at record highs is QE4.

“Something will come out of the phase one (Sino-U.S. trade) talks,” said TD Securities Senior Global Strategist James Rossiter. “Rolling back tariffs to where they were in August, with the December ones put on hold or canceled maybe.” But he said the two countries were unlikely to go beyond that, and China’s declining industrial profits underscored the economic strain exerted by the tensions.

Another signal of the rising market confidence was the VIX plunging to 7 month lows. It is now less than half the level it was in August, when U.S.-China talks looked close to collapsing, and a third of last December’s level when stock markets were pulled lower by trade angst and rising interest rates. Kay Van-Petersen, global macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, said while Sino-U.S. trade headlines may be driving some tactical, near-term moves in the market, they were mostly just “noise”. And echoing what we said, the Saxo strategist said that the broader market direction is “about the accommodative Fed and accommodative monetary policy and the fact that structurally the meta-trend is still lower in yields and rates,” he said.

In FX, the dollar relentless levitation continued, and the greenback was stronger against developed and emerging currencies, with dollar/yen holding above 109 and euro/dollar steady at $1.10. That was despite softer-than-expected U.S. economic data on Tuesday, which showed a fourth straight monthly contraction in consumer confidence and an unexpected drop in new home sales in October. Sterling initially dropped then spiked as pre-election opinion polls showed some narrowing of the Conservative lead over opposition parties, although Prime Minister Boris Johnson is still favored gain an overall majority. The reaction to the polls squeeze has been modest as the prospect of another hung parliament raises the prospect of some form of coalition government made up of parties supporting a second Brexit referendum.

“So far, the market has been relatively complacent when it comes to the risks ahead,” said Thu Lan Nguyen, FX strategist at Commerzbank. “Yes, the Tories still have the lead, but they’re certainly not gaining.”

In emerging markets, traders were watching Brazil’s real, which fell to a record low, below the troughs of the 2015 recession, despite central bank intervention.

Among the main commodities, oil prices edged lower after reaching their highest since late September on the reassuring trade headlines. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.21% at $58.29 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude lost 0.11% to $64.20 per barrel.

Expected data include annualized GDP, durable-goods orders, and personal income and spending.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,149.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 410.26
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 165.63
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 530.12
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 23,437.77
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,710.98
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 26,954.00
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 2,903.20
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 40,972.32
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,850.60
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,127.85
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.372%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1006
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 0.824%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.382%
  • Brent futures up 0.3% to $64.46/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,459.24
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 98.36

Top Overnight News

  • Global central banks are approaching the end of the year with a collective shudder at the risky behavior that their low interest-rate policies are encouraging. Policy makers from European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are among those raising cautionary flags at potentially unsafe investing stoked by their efforts to flood economies with ultra-cheap money
  • President Donald Trump declared Tuesday that talks with China on the first phase of a trade deal were near completion after negotiators from both sides spoke by phone, signaling progress on an accord in the works for nearly two years
  • Profits at Chinese industrial enterprises fell for a third straight month, dropping by the most since at least 2011 as producer prices continue falling and domestic demand slows
  • China saw strong demand for its third offering of dollar bonds in three years, though U.S. investors largely left the deal alone amid the trade war. Fund managers were also a diminished presence from last year, with the bulk of the sale taken up by banks and the public sector — a group that includes central banks and sovereign wealth funds
  • The earliest-available indicators of China’s economic performance point to a continued slowdown in November. Economic growth was already the slowest in almost three decades in the third quarter
  • Elizabeth Warren’s steady rise in the polls has shifted into reverse as attacks from her Democratic rivals over her Medicare for All plan take a toll. A Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday found that Warren has dropped by 14 points since October, when she topped the field in the same poll. Joe Biden now has a clear lead and she is in a three-way statistical tie for second place with Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Every other candidate had 3% support or less
  • A White House budget official said he warned his superiors that a hold on security assistance for Ukraine could be illegal, and he waited months for an explanation for the delay he described as unusual, according to transcripts released Tuesday
  • The road map for quantitative easing laid out by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe is spurring a rally in the nation’s bonds as investors seize on his comments to bet on deeper interest-rate cuts
  • The earliest-available indicators of China’s economic performance point to a continued slowdown in November. Economic growth was already the slowest in almost three decades in the third quarter, and Bloomberg Economics’ gauge aggregating the earliest data from financial markets and businesses shows that continuing
  • U.K. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn accused Boris Johnson’s government of secretly negotiating with the U.S. over the National Health Service as he sought to shift the focus from a spat over antisemitism that has embroiled his campaign for next month’s election

Asian equity markets traded broadly firmer after Wall Street extended on record levels once again, but with gains capped given the lack of material breakthrough from the recent slew of optimistic US-China trade rhetoric and following a further slump in Chinese Industrial Profits. ASX 200 (+0.9%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) were positive with notable strength in Australia’s telecoms sector as Telstra was boosted in anticipation of a stronger performance in H2 and with gold miners underpinned after the precious metal found relief from support at USD 1450/oz, while Tokyo sentiment rode on the recent upward trajectory in USD/JPY and with Toshiba lifted by prospects of a sooner return to the main market following reports the Tokyo Stock Exchange will ease requirements to fast-track promotion to the main board as soon as next year. Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were somewhat indecisive with Hong Kong kept afloat by hopes protests were waning and that the university siege may have drawn to an end, although the mainland was choppy due to continued PBoC liquidity inaction and after Industrial Profits further deteriorated with its largest decline since 2011. Finally, 10yr JGBs ignored the mostly positive tone in stocks and extended on the prior day’s post-40yr auction rebound to briefly test resistance at the 153.50 level, with prices also supported by the BoJ’s presence in the market today with the central bank’s Rinban operations heavily concentrated on 5yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Another Yield-Starved Japanese Bank Steps In to Buy CLOs
  • Westpac Still Under Fire as Advisers Say Directors Must Go
  • Investors in China Can’t Wait to Finally Own Alibaba Shares
  • Hong Kong Sets Record in $5 Billion Land Sale to Sun Hung Kai

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%) are higher in quiet but choppy trade, as global equities continue to build on recent momentum amid elevated trade hopes since the latest US President Trump comments that trade talks are in the “final throes”. Meanwhile, month-end factors continue to distort price-action. Sectors are in the green across the board, with outperformance seen in Materials (+0.3%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.3%). In terms of individual movers; British American Tobacco (+2.1%) nursed losses seen at the open after the Co. noted that it is on track for a strong year despite a slowdown in the US vaping market. Elsewhere today’s notable gainers include Aroundtown Properties (+2.5%) whose shares advanced after the Co. posted strong gains in both revenue and EBITDA. In terms of the laggards, Knorr Bremse (-3.5%) is under pressure after the Co. posted earnings that missed on top line expectations. Meanwhile, Rolls Royce (-1.5%) and Compass Group (-2.5%) are both lower following downgrades at Morgan Stanley and SocGen respectively. Taking a broader view, Barclays continue to see moderate upside for European equity markets in 2020, forecasting a further 9% of upside for the Euro Stoxx 50 by next year’s end. Although “the tactical risk-reward has become less appealing following the latest rally, as macro recovery and reducing policy uncertainty appear to be widely expected… light positioning, the relative expensiveness of ‘safe assets’, the positive delta in activity & earnings and the easier financial conditions argue for an extension of the equity bull market into 2020” the bank concludes.

Top European News

  • Better Macro Should Support European Stocks in 2020: Jefferies
  • Bain, Fortress, Apollo Consider Investing in Monte Paschi: MF
  • Lloyds to Cut Chief Executive Horta-Osorio’s Pension Award
  • Vodafone Wins German Court Backing in Price Fight With Elliott

In FX, The Dollar remains on a firm footing ahead of a packed US agenda with data front loaded and compressed due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. The Greenback is up vs most G10 rivals, albeit rangebound as the DXY meanders between 98.407-259 parameters, and just shy of resistance at 98.450. Back to today’s raft of releases, Q3 GDP and October core PCE are likely to headline, but durable goods may steal the limelight given the erratic nature of that series.

  • CAD/NZD/SEK/NOK – The major outliers and ‘outperformers’, as the Loonie maintains a degree of bullish technical momentum after Usd/Cad closed below the 200 DMA on Tuesday (1.3278) and the Kiwi benefits from favourable cross-winds with Aud/Nzd pivoting 1.0550 and Nzd/Usd holding relatively firmly above 0.6400 having largely shrugged off or taken in stride comments from RBNZ Governor Orr, the latest FSR and NZ trade data. Similarly, the Scandi Crowns have not really sustained serious or lasting damage from a dip in Swedish household lending, flip from trade surplus to a deficit twice the size or rise in the unofficial Norwegian survey-based jobless rate, as Eur/Sek tests support at 10.5500 and Eur/Nok straddles 10.1000.
  • GBP/AUD/JPY/CHF/EUR – The Pound has recovered pretty well if not impressively from early weakness and a breach of yesterday’s low (circa 1.2835) that seemed partly Eur/Gbp related amidst reports of RHS demand for the end of November. Indeed, Cable has bounced ahead of last Friday’s base (around 1.2822) towards 1.2885 and eclipsing the 21 DMA (1.2881) and the cross is back near 0.8650 having climbed to within a few pips of its 21 DMA (0.8587), as Eur/Usd hovers just above 1.1000. Note, hefty options expire close by (2 bn from 1.0995-1.1000 and 1.1 bn between 1.1035-40), while a key Fib (1.0994) is also keeping the single currency in narrow confines. Elsewhere, broadly risk-on sentiment amidst latest positive US-China trade chat (phase 1 deal in final throes per President Trump) is capping the Yen and Franc just under 109.00 and over parity respectively, with expiry interest also in proximity for Usd/Jpy (3.3 bn from 108.95-109.00 and 1 bn at 109.15). Back down under, a couple of dovish RBA calls vs 1 less dovish has weighed on Aud/Usd and protected a serious approach on 0.6800, but the pair is holding above 1bn expiries between 0.6760-75.
  • RBNZ Financial Stability Report noted that New Zealand’s financial system is resilient to a range of economic risks although global financial stability risks and domestic debt vulnerabilities remain, while it added that prolonged low long-term interest rates could generate excess leverage and overheated asset prices. Furthermore, the RBNZ stated negative OCR is not currently a central scenario in its published forecasts and it is considering potential impacts of unconventional monetary policy tools on bank profitability.

In commodities, the crude complex is slightly firmer, with Brent Feb’ 20 futures making fresh weekly highs above yesterday’s high (around USD 64.30/bbl) , as the market rebounds from overnight post bearish API inventory data lows as it opts to instead take its cue from better risk appetite spurred by trade hopes. Looking ahead, attention will be on EIA inventory data, where weekly crude stocks are seen drawing by 347k barrels, although if EIA crude stocks follow API’s lead and print a surprise build, this would mark a fifth straight week of builds. It is also the first day of the OPEC Economic Commission Board Meeting, which ends tomorrow, after which the board may provide policy recommendations to OPEC – although the recommendations are non-binding. Elsewhere, eyes turn to Libya following reports of military action around the El-Feel oilfield (circa. 100k BPD capacity), although no damage or production halts have been reported, the organisation stated that an escalation in violence could prompt evacuations and production shut-down. Looking at metals, gold prices continue to be subdued from lack of haven demand, with prices having briefly slipped below the USD 1460/oz mark. Meanwhile, copper prices continue to gain traction, as positive trade feels spur macro risk appetite, although prices did take a fleeting hit during overnight trade in the wake of abysmal IP data out of China.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%
    • Personal Consumption, est. 2.8%, prior 2.9%
    • Core PCE QoQ, est. 2.2%, prior 2.2%
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.9%, prior -1.2%; Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.2%, prior -0.6%
    • 8:30am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.2%, prior -0.7%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,500, prior 227,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.69m, prior 1.7m
  • 8:30am: Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.1%, prior -0.4%
  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 47, prior 43.2
  • 10am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%; Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.27%, prior 0.0%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.3%
  • 10am: PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.11%, prior 0.0%; PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.7%
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 1.5%; Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. 6.0%, prior 6.3%
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I was on Bloomberg TV yesterday and one comment I made that had a few people asking me questions was the one where I said that I thought nominal yields will stay below nominal GDP for the rest of my career. I truly believe this is the only way of supporting the existing colossal global debt burden and what is likely to be more debt in the future. Central banks will end up being forced to own a lot more bonds as far as the eye can see to facilitate this but I do think both will eventually be forced higher by policy. Clearly for reasons of which I’m not aware of, my career might not have long left but given a new house this year, building renovations that cost the original estimate times Pi, and school/university fees into the 2040s that’s how long I might need to work and how long I think this period of financial repression might need to last. We talk about this a lot in this year’s long-term study on debt. See here for a reminder.

Today markets will wind down ahead of Thanksgiving tomorrow but this means that a number of important US releases are shoe-horned into one day. We’ll get the second reading for third-quarter GDP, which is expected to show no change to the headline number of 1.9% growth, though there are expectations for a 0.1pp downgrade to consumption. We’ll also get durable and capital goods orders for October, which are expected to decline a bit further month-on-month (by -0.9% and -0.2%, respectively) but watch for the impact of the GM strikes. Apart from the national accounts data, core PCE prices for October will be released, which should show below-target inflation of 1.7%, and the Chicago PMI is expected to rise +3.8pts to 47.0 after it hit its lowest level since 2015 last month at 43.2. We’ll also get the biggest opinion poll and subsequent seat model forecast of the U.K. election campaign so far tonight (more on this below).

Ahead of all this, it was another day of edging to fresh record highs for markets, with the S&P 500 (+0.22%), the NASDAQ (+0.18%) and the DOW (+0.20%) all advancing to new highs in response to yesterday’s news that there had been a phone call between the US and Chinese negotiators. It was a similar story in Europe, with the STOXX 600 up +0.10% at its highest level since May 2015. Trade-sensitive indices fell back, however, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index down -0.50%. That move came despite an assertion by President Trump that the two sides are in the “final throes” of negotiations, possibly as concerns intensified over the recently-passed Hong Kong bill, which President Trump has neither confirmed nor denied that he will sign. If he does not sign or veto the bill by December 3, it will become law regardless.

Meanwhile, after the US markets closed, President Trump said in an interview for former Fox News Bill O’Reilly’s website that he’s holding up the trade deal to ensure better terms for the US while saying, “We can’t make a deal that’s like, even. We have to make a deal where we do much better, because we have to catch up.” President Trump also spoke of Hong Kong in the interview and said that the US wanted to see things “go well in Hong Kong” while adding that he was confident of a good outcome.

Overnight, the US Department of Commerce has released an advanced notice for proposed rulemaking (ANPRM) that will implement last May’s executive order on information and communications technology and services supply chain security. Also of note is that it did not name China as an “adversary nation”, as suggested in an earlier draft.

A quick refresh of our screens this morning show that Asian markets are mostly trading up with the Nikkei (+0.45%), Shanghai Comp (+0.07%) and Kospi (+0.42%) all higher while the Hang Seng is trading flat. As for FX, all the G10 currencies are trading weak against the dollar with the Australian dollar (-0.21%) leading the declines. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.06% while WTI crude oil prices are down -0.21% after a report from the American Petroleum Institute indicated that US crude inventories increased by 3.64mn barrels last week. As for overnight data releases, China’s October industrial profits declined by -9.9% yoy (-5.3% yoy last month), the largest decline in the 8 years we can find data at this time of the morning. However, the series is quite volatile in nature.

 

In other news, S&P said in an overnight report that Australia’s AAA credit rating – one of only 11 in the world – would come under increased “downward pressure” if the government opted to deploy fiscal stimulus that changed the trajectory of the budget while adding that the top ranking is reliant on “strong fiscal outcomes.” This perhaps helps to explain the Australian government’s determination to return to a balanced budget in the backdrop of a slowing economy.

Back to yesterday and it’s worth highlighting that volatility has now returned to very low levels, with the VIX index down by -0.12pt to 11.75 – its lowest level since October 2018, while in Europe the V2X was down -0.29pts to 12.10pts – just 1.1pts off its low for the year.

Sovereign bonds also advanced on both sides of the Atlantic, with 10yr Treasury yields down -1.9bps to 1.736%. However, the 2s10s curve snapped a run of 9 successive sessions flatter as the curve steepened by +1.1bps with 2yr yields -2.8bps. Yields fell in Europe too, with 10yr bunds (-2.4bps), OATs (-2.3bps) and gilts (-4.4bps) all lower. Bank stocks underperformed as a result, with the STOXX Banks index down -0.66%, and the S&P Banks industry group down -0.31%.

Possibly supporting the bull steepening move were comments from Fed Governor Brainard, who explicitly said that she supports a form of yield curve control targeted at the front end of the yield curve. Her proposal would cap front-end Treasury yields to reinforce forward guidance and ideally drive down longer-end rates as a result. She says that this policy would be better than outright QE, though she did say that she would support QE in a severe downturn. Brainard also committed to supporting a flexible inflation target, to “anchor inflation expectations at 2 per cent by achieving inflation outcomes that average 2 per cent over time or over the cycle.” Such a change in the Fed’s target appears increasingly likely as a result of their ongoing policy review.

Earlier in the day, Dallas Fed President Kaplan said that “I think policy is in the right place now”, but also said that “We think the fourth quarter is going to be weak”. Kaplan is going to be a voting member on the FOMC next year. He expects growth around 2% for 2020, and would likely need to see a downside surprise versus that figure before supporting any change in policy.

In FX markets, sterling fell -0.26% yesterday as narrowing opinion poll leads for the Conservatives led to investor concern that there might be continued uncertainty over Brexit moving forward into next year. Following Monday’s ICM poll which had a 7pt Tory lead, yesterday morning saw another from Kantar with the lead falling from 18pts to 11pt lead in a week. As such sterling moved from being the best performing G10 currency on Monday to the worst yesterday. A YouGov poll later also showed an 11pt lead, only down 1pt since Friday.

Tonight, market attention will be on the release of YouGov’s MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) model at 10pm GMT, used to forecast the result. At the last election, this model predicted a hung Parliament over a week before the elections in contrast to expectations that there’d be a larger Conservative majority, so it’ll be fascinating to see if it’s forecasting any surprises this time round (albeit slightly further out from polling).

Staying with FX, the Brazilian Real depreciated -0.17% to its weakest-ever level against the dollar yesterday, in spite of intervention from the central bank. The move came after Brazil’s Economy Minister commented that a weaker currency is not a problem. Meanwhile, The Brazilian central bank has embarked on a series of rate cuts recently, with 50bp reductions at each of the last 3 meetings. Added to this has been general concerns over political stability in Latin America in light of recent protests across the continent, while former President Lula’s release from prison has raised the prospects of a more radical, populist left-wing government further down the line as he re-enters the political fray. Overnight, Brazil’s central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto has said that the central bank will intervene further if they need to normalize the foreign exchange market.

Sticking with LatAm, yesterday Chile’s central bank said that it will hold its next monetary policy decision two days earlier than scheduled in a bid to provide “timely information” about the country’s economic situation following weeks of social unrest. The central bank will now make the rate decision on December 4 (earlier December 6) and present their quarterly monetary policy report, known as the IPOM, the next day at 8:30 am (earlier December 9).

Elsewhere, the dollar weakened -0.07% after 5 days of gains, while bitcoin (-1.22%) fell for a 10th consecutive session against the dollar, with the latter falling to its lowest level since May.

In terms of data out yesterday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading came in slightly below consensus at 125.5 (vs. 127.0 expected), although the previous month’s reading was revised up by two-tenths. The present situation reading fell to a 5-month low of 166.9, although the expectations indicator rose to 97.9. Looking at the labour market indicators, the differential between those saying jobs were “plentiful” and jobs were “hard to get” fell to 32.1 (vs. 36.1 previously), also at a 5-month low.

Other US data releases included new home sales beating expectations in October, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733k (vs. 705k expected), while the previous month was revised up by +37k to 738k. That means that new home sales have had their best two months in over 12 years and adds to a run of strong data on the US housing market. Elsewhere, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey fell to -1 (vs. 5 expected), and amidst the ongoing trade war, the advanced goods trade deficit for the US fell to $66.5bn in October (vs. $71.0bn expected), its lowest level since May 2018.

In Europe, the main data out yesterday was the GfK consumer confidence reading from Germany, with the December forecast up to 9.7 (vs. 9.6 expected). More notable, however, was the expectations indicator, which rose to 1.7 in November, up from -13.8 the previous month, which was the biggest single-month increase in expectations since July 2010.

To the day ahead now, and this morning’s data include French consumer confidence for November, along with Italian consumer confidence, manufacturing confidence and economic sentiment for the month. Meanwhile, ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday we have a raft of US data releases, including the second reading of Q3 GDP, along with personal consumption and core PCE. Then there’s the preliminary October reading of durable goods orders and non-defence capital goods orders. And to round it off, there’s the MNI Chicago PMI reading for November, personal income and spending data for October, pending home sales for October, and the weekly initial jobless claims and MBA mortgage applications. Turning to central banks, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, while we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lane again.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.86 POINTS OR 0.13%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 40.08 POINTS OR 0.15%   /The Nikkei closed UP 40.08. POINTS OR 0.15%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .88%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0248 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0248 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0232 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/USA/WEWORK

if IPO’s falter for these unicorns, the whole ball of wax comes melting down

(zerohedge)

WeWork Fiasco Threatens SoftBank’s Very Existence

Since billionaire investor Masayoshi Son launched his $100 billion Vision Fund in 2016, pouring money into more than 80 unicorns, and helped create a startup bubble in the last five years, the implosion of WeWork has signaled the top is near. 

Bloomberg notes that Son, flushed with cash, after he turned a $20 million bet on China’s Alibaba into a $120 billion, carelessly plowed billions of dollars into startups with limited consideration to valuation.

For instance, Son had a meeting with a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, called SenseTime Group, who asked the billionaire and SoftBank executives for several hundred million dollars. Son told SenseTime that he would give them $2 billion, but after some rejection from SoftBank managers, Vision Fund put in $1 billion, nearly 5x of what was requested at the beginning of the meeting.

Son pumped up many valuations of startups with no consideration for risk, Eric Schiffer, chief executive officer of Patriarch Organization, told Bloomberg.

“They pump up valuations to get higher returns to look good to investors,” Schiffer said. “That kind of fundraising apparatus is essentially unicorn porn.”

Son was a major contributor in fueling the unicorn bubble by recklessly bidding up startup valuations.

The pumping scheme unraveled during the WeWork fiasco that saw its valuation peak at $47 billion earlier this year, and by late year, now only worth $7.8 billion. 

Son and his team engineered a massive financial bailout of WeWork to avoid a systemic collapse of Vision Fund. He also had to calm investors quickly to avoid fears that certain accounting practices artificially bid up valuations in other Vision Fund investments.

“WeWork is not just a mistake, it is a signal of weakness in the whole model,” said Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “If you screwed up that valuation so badly, what about all of the other companies in your portfolio?”

SoftBank’s auditors at Deloitte & Touche reviewed the final valuations of Vision Fund’s unicorns. Along with Vision Fund’s limited partners, who used Duff & Phelps and Ernst & Young, so far, found no wrongdoing in the fund pumping up valuations of its unicorns.

The success of Vision Fund depends on bidding up valuations of unicorns then dumping them onto public markets in the form of IPOs. That’s how the fund and SoftBank make money.

 

So far, Vision Fund has “already had seven IPOs, $4.7 billion of realized gains, $11.4 billion in cumulative investment gains and returned $9.9 billion to our limited partners,” Navneet Govil, the CFO of SB Investment Advisers, the entity that manages the Vision Fund.

After the WeWork implosion, Vision Fund’s deals have all come under intense examination. As shown below, many of the deals have seen parabolic rises in valuations in the last several years.

And the big question: What if everyone has finally figured out that Son’s SoftBank and Vision Fund are just a self-funding Ponzi scheme that relies on IPOs to cash out.

It’s only when the IPO market shuts, as what happened with WeWork, the scheme unravels.

3 C CHINA

CHINA

We have another Chinese bank experiencing a bank run. Today it is small bank Yingkou Coastal bank that found itself scrambling to stop a run  up.  It was forced to raise its deposit rate to 4.4% from 4.2% to stem the outflow. The bank’s problem is that it is difficult to find returns greater than 4.4% and this is its self destructive “doom loop”

(zerohedge)

 

Second Bank Run In Two Weeks As China’s Banks Are Caught In A Self-Destructive “Doom Loop”

Three weeks ago we reported that China’s Henan YichuanRural Commercial Bank, just outside the central Chinese city of Luoyang, was the latest small-to-medium Chinese bank to suffer a vicious bank run as long lines of depositors filled out its branches demanding their money, amid a rumor that the bank was going under. The bank was at least the fourth to be on the verge of collapse after recent prior nationalizations of Baoshang Bank ,Bank of Jinzhou, and most recently, China’s Heng Feng Bank.

Now yet another Chinese bank has found itself scrambling to prevent a collapse: Yingkou Coastal Bank was forced to stack bundles of yuan notes high behind the counters of its branches earlier this month, as the northeast China lender fought off a run on deposits while onsite government officials battled rumors of a funding crunch. (Harvey: similar to what J.P. Morgan did in 1906 to ward off a bank run)

As Reuters reports, Yingkou was the latest small bank to have its deposit-reliant funding base undermined by a flash mob of “running” depositors, spooked by the funding crunch that led to the shock state-led rescue of regional lender Baoshang Bank first which in turn prompted a cascade of small bank bailouts.

To avoid an almost instant death, Yingkou had no choice but to engage in what we have hence dubbed a self-destructive “doom loop: to help repair the damage and to keep the deposits from being pulled, the bank hiked its already high deposit interest rates to entice depositors. Alas by doing so, the bank – which can not possibly find investing opportunities to offset the higher deposit rates – has just accelerated its eventual insolvency.

The run on Yingkou came just as small banks’ reliance on deposits for funding shot up this year after Baoshang’s rescue sent interbank interest rates spiking, raising borrowing costs and making it virtually impossible for banks to fund themselves in the short-term funding market as we discussed in June.

To be sure, bank funding was already under pressure for most but the biggest bank following government efforts to de-leverage the financial system starting in 2016. Meanwhile, small but deadly cuts in key lending rates since August to stimulate up a slowing economy have only exacerbated the pressure on banks.

With less income from lending and without the full suite of funding options available to much larger peers, the interest rates that China’s legion of small banks may have to offer to attract deposits could further undermine their stability, analysts said. The irony is that to preserve their critical deposit base, small banks have to hike deposit rates even higher to stand out, in the process sapping their own lifeblood and ensuring their self-destruction. Hence “doom loop.”

Dai Zhifeng, a banking analyst with Zhongtai Securities, told Reuters the funding difficulties risked distorting small banks’ behavior, making failure even more likely: “Lacking core competitiveness, some of them have turned to high-risk, short-sighted operations,” he said, adding that a liquidity crunch was possible at some institutions.

Institutions such as Yingkou, where “untruthful rumors about the bank’s deep financial crisis spread online”, the city police said, triggering a run on deposits on Nov. 6 when a Reuters witness saw piles of cash behind counters at six city-centre branches.

Just like at Yichuan Rural Bank, the local government stepped in to allay concerns, placing officials at Yingkou’s biggest branch to help calm depositors, and hanging notices saying the bank had sufficient assets and that its operations and management were in good standing.

Why the panic to avoid outflows? Because as of June-end deposits made up 58% of Yingkou’s funding. In the wake of the run, it raised its rate for one-year time deposits to 4.4% from 4.2% and kept the rate on its flagship three-month wealth management product above 5%. By comparison, the popular money market fund Yu’ebao backed by e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd offers a modest 2% annualized rate, while China’s benchmark rate for a one-year time deposit is 1.75%; this means that the troubled bank has to offer interest rates more than double the prevailing ones just to keep depositors from fleeing.

“I thought about the risks of smaller lenders, but an interest rate of 4%-plus on deposits was too attractive for me,” said Sun Wensheng, a perfect example of the gullible depositors the bank is desperately in need of, and a futures trader who deposited 420,000 yuan ($59,772.86) with Yingkou just before the bank run. Sun is in for a big surprise when in a few weeks that bank shuts down, this time for good, and his entire deposit is gone… all gone.

* * *

Though small, problems at China’s more than 4,500 local banks matter because of their close ties to larger lenders and huge base of mom-and-pop savers; put enough banks under and suddenly you have a “Lehman moment“, as the interbank market freezes.

Yingkou was the second bank run in less than two weeks, following the previously discussed panic at Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank in central Henan province amid a corruption investigation into a former boss. But in contrast to the May rescue of Inner Mongolia lender Baoshang Bank, when a takeover by the central government sent interbank lending rates sharply higher, local governments took the lead in managing both of the latest scares.

 

According to Reuters, the change in approach was deliberate and is now based on the specific situation of the bank in question, said an official at the Shanghai branch of the CBIRC. In both runs, funding from other local banks was swiftly brought in to allay liquidity fears under instruction from the authorities.

The current smaller banking industry is fragile due to (its) high leverage and poor liquidity management,” said another regional CBIRC official who oversees local rural banks.

“Smaller banks need to be treated carefully and problems rectified as they emerge, such as corporate governance, to avoid contagion risks.”

Ah yes, “contagion risks” – the doomsday alarm for any authoritarian regime, such as China’s. And precisely for that reason, regulators have refrained from cracking down on the high-return time deposits offered by small banks due to fear of squeezing their only remaining funding lifeline.

Local intervention should help contain problems and cut the cost of any rescue, said Rory Green, an economist covering China at independent investment research firm TS Lombard.

“That is long-term positive for China, but will create a lot of risks when local authorities don’t have enough capital and don’t act quickly enough to stabilize the situation,” he said.

Regulators are also looking at recapitalization, mergers and other forms of support. On Nov. 18, another previously bailed out bank, Harbin Bank – a midsize lender with links to Baoshang stakeholder Tomorrow Holdings – saw its shares jump 9% after two local state-controlled groups became its key shareholders, paying an above-market price to do so. Because why not make a few shareholders richer if all it takes to prevent systemic collapse is what is an almost daily bailout of one of China’s thousands of insolvent banks. The alternative? It’s took scary to even consider.

END

CHINA

Interesting: China has a huge problem in that more than half of their banks fail the Central Bank stress test

(zerohedge)

A $20 Trillion Problem: More Than Half Of China’s Banks Fail Central Bank Stress Test

In our latest look at the turmoil among China’s small and medium banks, which included not only the recent bailouts and nationalizations of Baoshang Bank , Bank of Jinzhou, China’s Heng Feng Bank, but also the two very troubling bank runs at China’s Henan Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank at the start of the month, and then more recently at Yingkou Coastal Bank.

As we further explained, the reason why so many (for now) smaller Chinese banks have found themselves either getting bailed out or hit by bank runs, is that in a time when China’s interbank/repo rates have surged amid growing counterparty concerns, increasingly more banks have been forced to rely almost entirely on deposits to fund themselves, forcing them to hike their deposit rates to keep their funding levels stable.

Meanwhile, cuts in key lending rates since August to stimulate up a slowing economy have only exacerbated net interest margin pressures on banks.

In other words, with less income from lending and without the full suite of funding options available to much larger peers, the interest rates that China’s legion of small banks may have to offer to attract deposits could further undermine their stability. The irony is that to preserve their critical deposit base, small banks have to hike deposit rates even higher to stand out, in the process sapping their own lifeblood and ensuring their self-destruction, or as we dubbed it earlier, China’s own version of Europe’s “doom loop.

Dai Zhifeng, a banking analyst with Zhongtai Securities, told Reuters the funding difficulties risked distorting small banks’ behavior, making failure even more likely: “Lacking core competitiveness, some of them have turned to high-risk, short-sighted operations,” he said, adding that a liquidity crunch was possible at some institutions.

But for a nation with a $40 trillion financial system, double the size of US banks, and well over 4,000 small, medium and massive, state-owned banks, here please recall that the 4 largest banks in the world are now Chinese:

  • ICBC: $4TN
  • China Construction: $3.4TN
  • Agri Bank of China: $3.3TN
  • Bank of China: $3.1TN

… the question how many banks will fail in the near future, is especially relevant not only for China but for the entire world.

Luckily, we got an answer from none other than China’s central bank, which on Monday said that China’s banking sector is “showing signs of strain”, with more than 13% of 4,379 lenders now considered “high risk” by the central bank.

In other words, take the 5 banks listed above which either suffered a bank run and/or were bailed out or nationalized, and add to them over 500 which are about to suffer the same fate.

As Bloomberg reports, in the PBOC’s its 2019 China Financial Stability Report, the high risk category contains 586 banks and financing firms, most of which are smaller rural institutions. The report also comically noted that one bank got a “D” grade this year, meaning it went bankrupt, was taken over or lost its license. No banks were named in the report.

And here is why the next global financial crisis will likely start in some backward Chinese province best known for its massively polluting coal plants, ghost cities and made up GDP data: while foreign and private banks are seen as relatively safe, more than one third of rural lenders were rated “high risk,” or those which are near failure.

Additionally, some medium- and small-sized financial institutions received poor ratings because of the slowing economy, with small lenders more sensitive to swings in the economy.

What did the PBOC do with this doomsday list? As Bloomberg reports, the central bank notified each bank of its rating, and required some to increase capital, reduce bad loans, limit dividends and even change management. In short, trillions in Chinese bank (non performing) assets are about to mysteriously disappear off the books while hundreds of local banks scramble to inject liquidity in their balance sheets, effectively removing free liquidity from the interbank market.

 

Separately, the PBOC also stress tested 30 medium- and large-sized banks in the first half of 2019. In the base-case scenario, assuming GDP growth dropped to 5.3% – or well above where China’s real GDP is now – nine out of 30 major banks failed and saw their capital adequacy ratio drop to 13.47% from 14.43%. In the worst-case scenario, assuming GDP growth of 4.15%, or less than 2% below the latest official GDP print, more than half of China’s banks, or 17 out of the 30 major banks failed the test. So with the entire Chinese financial system roughly $40 trillion, this suggests that China now has a rather insurmountable $20 trillion problem on its hands.

Separately, a liquidity stress test at 1,171 banks, representing nearly three-quarters of China’s banking sector by assets, showed that 90 failed in the base-case and 159 in the worst-case scenario.

* * *

According to the central bank, it made progress in containing financial risks in the past year, but warned that some potential threats require more time to eliminate. Financial risks can “occur easily” and more frequently as the economy cools and the risk of a slowdown in global growth increases, it said, clearly offering a very non-subtle hint of what is coming.

Faced with this complex situation, the central bank said that it should “stay cool-headed” to keep a balance between economic growth and risk control. It also means that the PBOC is now trapped – on one hand it can’t cut rates further as it will push even more small banks into insolvent as per the “doom loop” described earlier, on the other it can’t hike rates as then the entire economy would slow, resulting in unprecedented devastation and tens of trillions in bank assets wiped out.

Next year marks the last year in a three-year campaign by policy makers to contain financial risks. The PBOC said it will “fine-tune” its policies to fit the economic situation, ensuring that they aren’t too tight or too loose according to Bloomberg. The general direction of containing financial risks will be unchanged, in other words, despite the clear signs that things are bad and getting worse by the day – yes, there were two bank runs in the past two weeks – after years if not decades without a single bank crisis – the PBOC will do what China has been so good at doing in the past decade when it comes to addressing the unprecedented risks associated with a 320% debt/GDP and a $40 trillion financial system.

end

China loves to fudge industrial numbers so when you see a plunge of 9.9% year over year, you know that conditions inside this nation is in problem mode

(zerohedge)

Chinese Industrial Profits Collapse By Most On Record

China Industrial Enterprises total profits collapsed in October to CNY427.5bn from CNY575.6bn in September – a 9.9% YoY plunge, the biggest drop on record.

In fact, China’s Industrial sector has seen annual declines in its profits for 4 of the last 5 months.

Source: Bloomberg

What is perhaps even more disturbing is that seasonally, this is a period where profits typically begin to accelerate. This year, they are collapsing to the lowest since July 2013 (and lowest for an October on record)…

Source: Bloomberg

“Extended deflation in producer prices is likely to keep downward pressure on profits,” Bloomberg Economist David Qu said in a note before the data.

“Looking ahead, the low base will continue to support the year-on-year comparisons.”

Additionally, Industrial firms’ liabilities increased 4.9% from a year earlier to 66.74 trillion yuan at end-October, compared with a 5.4% increase at end-September.

 

And if you’re banking on more stimulus and credit to fix this – forget it!!!

Source: Bloomberg

Is Trump winning?

end

HONG KONG

We are beginning to see more or these and it is big trouble for Hong Kong citizens and our friendly bankers. We witnessed two stocks plummet by 75% within minutes as the owners of the listled company received a margin call.  The protests are having a devastating effect on the city.

(zerohedge)

Margin Call Chaos: Hong Kong Stock Plummets 75% In Minutes 

China First Capital Group, an investment holding company, saw its equity trading on the Hong Kong exchange placed in a trading halt on Wednesday after it crashed 78% in minutes, reported Bloomberg.

The collapse in equity wasn’t just limited to China First Capital. Another company that is partly owned by the investment holding company also saw its shares initially crash by 80% but ended the session down 33%. Both moves wiped out $1.2 billion in shareholder value, underscore how the Hong Kong market is fraught with volatility.

Chen Keyu, Virscend’s director of investor relations, told Bloomberg that the sudden crash in Virscend shares could’ve been due to a margin call by China First Capital.

Bloomberg said the abrupt stock slumps are “once again putting the spotlight on corporate governance at the city’s listed companies.

Adding that “One oft-cited catalyst for the outsized swings is forced selling by major shareholders who have borrowed against their positions. That can lead to a domino effect when companies are connected by investors or business lines, and it’s not always clear under Hong Kong’s disclosure rules when a stake has been pledged.”

We noted last year some prominent risks facing the Chinese stock market was the threat of margin calls resulting in forced selling of stocks pledged as collateral for loans.

Companies who pledged shares as loan collateral could be one of the reasons behind Wednesday’s margin call dump in China First Capital that spread into Virscend.

There was another panic last week when ArtGo Holdings plunged 98% after MSCI rejected plans to add the stock to its benchmark indexes. Then another stock, a Chinese furniture maker, plummeted 91% after a short-seller questioned the company’s accounting practices.

The next significant risk for investors in Hong Kong and or Chinese stocks are sliding prices because of a decelerating regional economy. As a result, this would lead to additional margin calls and force a vicious circle of panic selling.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK/USA

Another Ex Deutsche bank executive linked to millions of loans to Donald Trump commits suicide

(zerohedge)

Senior Ex-Deutsche Bank Exec Linked To Millions In Donald Trump Loans Commits Suicide

During the past few years we extensively covered a bizarre surge in banker suicides, pointing out the various conspiracy theories linking various high-level bank executives and inside scandals at the very highest levels across financial institutions, and no bank had more high profile suicides than Deutsche Bank.

It all started on January 26, 2014 when a 58-year-old former senior executive at German investment bank behemoth Deutsche Bank, William Broeksmit, was found dead after hanging himself at his London home. He had been involved in the bank’s risk function and advised the firm’s senior leadership; according to a suicide note found after his death, he had been “anxious about various authorities investigating areas of the bank where he worked” (we profiled the suicide extensively in “an Inside Look At Two “Unrelated” Banker Suicides Reveals A Fascinating Rabbit Hole“).

Broeksmit’s death appeared to set off an unprecedented series of banker suicides throughout the year which included former Fed officials and numerous JPMorgan traders. A few months later, in October, another Deutsche Bank veteran committed suicide when the bank’s associate general counsel and former SEC enforcement attorney, 41 year old Calogero “Charlie” Gambino, who was found on the morning of Oct. 20, having also hung himself by the neck from a stairway banister.

Fast forward to this week when Thomas Bowers, a former Deutsche Bank executive and head of the bank’s US private wealth-management division (i.e., the group catering to ultra wealthy clients), killed himself by hanging in his Malibu residence last Tuesday, November 19thaccording to the coroner’s initial report. Bowers was 55.

News of Bowers death was first reported by New York Times reporter, David Enrich, who is currently finalizing his book “Dark Towers” which includes extensive first-person accounts from Val Broeskmit, the son of the late Deutsche Bank risk executive, William Broeksmit who as noted above, hung himself in London in January 2019.

David Enrich

@davidenrich

I’ve learned that Tom Bowers, a former senior @DeutscheBank executive, died last week at 55 in Malibu, Calif. I knew him. It’s very sad.

The University of Boston graduate was most recently Chief Operating Officer of Starwood Capital Group according to his bio: “Bowers is responsible for driving Starwood Capital’s priority strategic initiatives and enhancing the operational effectiveness of the Firm’s public and private operating companies and entities.”

More notably, prior to joining Starwood Capital in 2015, Bowers was Co-Head of Asset and Wealth Management-Americas at Deutsche Bank, where has started in 2005 and was responsible for managing the U.S. and Latin American wealth management businesses, and had joint responsibility for the integration of Deutsche Bank’s wealth and institutional asset management businesses in the Americas. Bowers was also a board member of Deutsche Bank Securities: if anybody knew where the bodies are buried, he would be one of them.

Just as notable is that both Bowers and Broeksmit appear to have held key functions for Deutsche Bank’s US wealth-management division, with Broeksmit operating through the murkier Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, or DBTCA.

But what is most remarkable is that according to a March 2019 report by the same David Enrich, Bowers was boss to Trump’s personal banker Rosemary Vrablic, who according to the NYT report helped steer more than $300 million in loans to Donald J. Trump in the years before he was elected president.

 

Rosemary T. Vrablic, circled at top right, allegedly helped steer more than $300 million in loans to Donald J. Trump in the years before he was elected president. Photo: Bloomberg

“Rosemary is widely recognized as one of the top private bankers to the U.S. ultra high-net-worth community,” Bowers said in a September 2006 news release announcing Vrablic’s hire from BofA’s Private Bank. To lock the hire, Deutsche Bank reportedly paid Vrablic a $3 million guarantee, which back in 2006 was a lot of money for a private welath banker.

According to the NYT, Vrablic was “not a traditional private banker, and her bosses at Deutsche Bank encouraged her to be aggressive.” Throughout her career, Vrablic was instrumental in providing Trump and his real estate organization with hundreds of millions in loans. As the NYT further adds, Trump “used loans from Deutsche Bank to finance skyscrapers and other high-end properties, and repeatedly cited his relationship with the bank to deflect political attacks on his business acumen. Deutsche Bank used Mr. Trump’s projects to build its investment-banking business, reaped fees from the assets he put in its custody and leveraged his celebrity to lure clients.”

Trump’s relationship with Vrablic was so close that she was “bundled in a hooded white parka in a fenced-off V.I.P. section” during Trump’s 2017 inaugural address.

Here is where the rabbit hole gets deeper: according to ForensicNews journalist Scott Stedman, “one source who has direct knowledge of the FBI’s investigation into Deutsche Bank said that federal investigators haved asked about Bowers and what documents he might have.”

 

Scott Stedman@ScottMStedman

5/ One source who has direct knowledge of the FBI’s investigation into Deutsche Bank said that federal investigators haved asked about Bowers and what documents he might have.

Stedman also said that “another source who has knowledge of Deutsche Bank’s internal structure said that Bowers would have been the gatekeeper for financial documents for the bank’s wealthiest customers.”

* * *

So is Bowers, Ms. Vrablic’s former boss, linked to the loans made to Trump by Deutsche Bank, and was he indeed targeted by the FBI for his knowledge of DB’s secret dealings? Most importantly, was his suicide in any way a result of these loose ends?

While the answer is unknown as of this moment, we paraphrase Enrich when he wrote that after “Trump won the 2016 election, the German bank shifted into damage-control mode, bracing for an onslaught of public scrutiny, according to several people involved in the internal response.” It is possible that that scrutiny may have now cost the life of one more Deutsche Banker.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/USA

Iran has quelled the protests as they now take their victory lap by stating that they will destroy the USA and Israel

(zerohedge)

Iran’s Guard Tells US & Allies “We Will Destroy You” After Declaring Victory Over Protests

Iran’s top elite forces commander, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) chief Gen. Hossein Salami, issued a public threat Monday before a large crowd, vowing to destroy the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel if they cross Tehran’s “red lines”.

“We announce to the United States, Britain, Israel, and Saudi Arabia that you experienced us in the field and received strong slaps,” said Gen. Salami, adding: “If you cross our red lines, we will destroy you.”

“We will not leave any move unanswered,” he warned, and said that if Iran decides to respond, “the enemy will not have security anywhere, our patience has a limit.” The speech is being widely viewed as Tehran’s ‘victory lap’ of sorts after anti-government protests across a hundred cities have been largely quelled.

 

IRGC’s top commander, Gen. Hossein Salami during Monday’s speech. Image source: AFP/Getty

He was addressing a mass pro-government rally at a moment that dozens of such ‘counter-protests’ were held across the country, in answer to the anti-fuel hike and anti-government protests which have gripped the country over the past two weeks.

State media featured the large government-supportive demonstrations in multiple cities early this week, seeking to underscore the Islamic Republic’s leadership has emerged ‘victorious’ after quashing the mainstay of the prior anti-government rallies.

Footage showed protesters burning the American flag and chanting slogans which blamed the external interference of the US and Israel, and “seditious” elements for the Islamic Republic’s current unrest, which had included a week of a total internet blackout ordered by authorities in Tehran.

As of November 24, global internet monitoring group NetBlocks said that “basic connectivity is returning, but many users now face a filternet that restricts access to the outside world.”

 

Meanwhile, a new report by Amnesty International issued simultaneous to Gen. Salami’s fiery Monday speech counted at least 143  killed in protests since Nov. 15. Tehran has rejected those numbers while asserting that it was armed elements among demonstrators who attacked police.

The Amnesty report also claimed “clear evidence” that Iranian security forces used live ammo on unarmed civilian demonstrators. This after unverified social media videos emerged last week appearing to show live fire being used by police to disperse crowds.

Though anti-regime protests do appear to lack in size after fierce clashes with police in the past days, evidence continues to emerge that they are still ongoing in many places.

end

IRAN

This is not good:  Iran arrests 8 journalists after Pompeo calls for a crackdown on internet blockage

(zerohedge)

Iran Claims Arrest Of 8 “CIA-Funded Citizen Journalists” After Pompeo Called For ‘Crackdown Videos’

As we’ve covered earlier, Iran’s leadership in predictable fashion has accused the some 200,000 protesters which took to the streets over the past two weeks — triggered by a Nov. 15 sudden gas price hike of at least 50% (and in some place 300%) — of being willing dupes of external enemies, specifically the US, Israeli and Saudi Arabia.

This week as the mainstay of demonstrations were quelled amid an aggressive police crackdown, with some reports of security forces using live gunfire, both the IRGC chief and Ayatollah Khamenei took a ‘victory lap’ of sorts, claiming the dangerous ‘foreign conspiracy’ has been defeated.

And now state media is attempting to offer its people ‘proof’ in the form of eight arrested individuals accused of being CIA assets. State news agency IRNA reported Wednesday that those detained “had received CIA-funded training in various countries under the cover of becoming citizen-journalists,”according toIran’s Intelligence Ministry statements.

 

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this week accused the US of infiltrating the protests, plotting to ‘send troops’. Image source: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP.

Though specific details have been predictably sparse, six of the accused were reportedly arrested on a charge of “rioting” while “carrying out CIA orders,” and two others were said to been caught trying to “send information abroad.” Ayatollah Khamenei had earlier in the day labeled the protests as driven by “thugs”who were playing into the hands of Iran’s enemies.

“The people foiled a deep, vast and very dangerous conspiracy on which a lot of money was spent for destruction, viciousness and the killing of people,” Khamenei told a group of security officials responsible for quashing the protests.

It appears this latest claim to have eight CIA assets in custody is connected to last week’s declaration by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who issued an unusual call for Iranian protesters to send the United States videos and photos and other evidence “documenting the regime’s crackdown” on protesters.

Washington has not confirmed the extent to which Iranian activists and protesters have actually heeded this call, but it looks like Iranian authorities are using the US Secretary of State’s invitation to round up ‘citizen-journalists’ who have sought to upload videos to social media, despite a nationwide internet outage for over a week in effect, initiated by Tehran authorities.

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

I have asked the Iranian protestors to send us their videos, photos, and information documenting the regime’s crackdown on protestors. The U.S. will expose and sanction the abuses. https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1197659041465602048 

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

معترضان شجاع ایران! ویدیوها، عکس ها، و اطلاعات خود را پیرامون سرکوب اعتراض ها توسط رژیم ایران برای ما بفرستید. ایالات متحده آزار معترضان را علنی و محکوم خواهد کرد.

با ما از طریق تلگرام تماس بگیرید:RFJ_Farsi_Bot@

 State authorities and media have since saturated the air waves with accusations of a ‘dangerous foreign plot’ afoot, as Al Jazeera summarized of the latest statements:

Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli estimated as many as 200,000 people took part in the demonstrations, higher than previous claims. He said demonstrators damaged more than 50 police stations, as well as 34 ambulances, 731 banks and 70 gas stations in the country.

“We have individuals who were killed by knives, shotguns and fires,” Fazli said, without offering a casualty figure, in remarks published by IRNA.

The truth is probably somewhere in between: real domestic economic grievances (following months of debilitating US-led sanctions) and legitimate charges of corruption, but which external actors desirous of regime change have sought to hijack.

It should be noted that Washington has from the start consistently voiced support to the protests, sparked initially by the economic crisis in the sanctions-wracked country. The death toll climbed to an estimated 200 dead as protesters clashed with police over the past two week; but those prior mass anti-government demonstrations  which included the burning of banks and gas stations — were largely supplanted at the start of this week by pro-government rallies.

END

6.Global Issues

Michael Every is not fooled:  this is where our global central bankers are heading!!

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

 

Rabobank: “Global Central-Bankery Continues To Go Where No-One Has Gone Before”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Stocks at new recorder record highs; bonds up (yields down); CNY up; broad USD DXY up; China issuing USD 6bn of sovereign debt at a narrow spread over USTs….it’s all up, up, and away. And why not? Trump tells us the US is “in the final throes” of a phase one trade deal with China. Usually that language is used to imply something is dying, but hey ho, decimate is used to mean annihilation rather than killing one in ten of the enemy, and quantum leap is used to imply something big when it actually means something amazingly small. Suffice to say markets loved it. So much so in fact that it is a song we should keep singing over and over, like another ‘final’- “The Final Countdown”.

Three decades after Europe’s pop-metal kitsch classic first hit the charts, they are still out there playing it, and whenever anyone hears the keyboard intro “Deedle deedle….deedle dee”, everyone knows the song and joins in enthusiastically: how can you not? As such, I suggest that from now on, every time the White House talks about the impending phase one trade deal coming soon, to save time they just play the track for the press. Or just the keyboard intro. And rallying markets can continue to trade off the deep wisdom of the lyrics:

“We’re leaving together; But still it’s farewell; And maybe we’ll come back; To earth, who can tell?

I guess there is no one to blame; We’re leaving ground (leaving ground); Will things ever be the same again?

It’s the final countdown; The final countdown”

And indeed, will things ever be the same again in markets? Not just because of the constant dangled promise of a trade deal that the vast majority of those working in those same markets admit is unlikely to mean much of anything; but because global central-bankery continues to go where no-one has gone before. Mass asset-purchases; negative rates; ‘Not-QE’; yield curve control–Brainard says the Fed should use asset purchases to cap yields on short- and medium-term Treasuries, a-la BOJ, where it hasn’t worked, of course–and, shortly no doubt, solving the global climate crisis and inequality! In their special central-bank minds, *this* is the voyage all the rest of us are mere passengers on:

“We’re heading for Venus (Venus); And still we stand tall; ‘Cause maybe they’ve seen us (seen us); And welcome us all, yeah

With so many light years to go; And things to be found (to be found); I’m sure that we’ll all miss her so…”

But then back to that trade deal:

“It’s the final countdown; The final countdown; The final countdown; The final countdown; Oh, The final countdown, oh It’s the final count down; The final countdown; The final countdown; The final countdown; Oh; It’s the final count down.”

 

And then back to central banks and that trade deal working together:

“We’re leaving together; The final count down; We’ll all miss her so; It’s the final countdown; It’s the final countdown; Oh; It’s the final countdown, yeah.”

What a hit it is!

END

John Deere warns that sales would drop through 2020 with the ongoing trade war with China

(zerohedge)

Deere Projects Tractor Sales Will Plunge, Says Farmers Paralyzed Amid Trade War Disputes 

Deere & Co. warned Wednesday that sales would drop in its agriculture-and-turf and construction-and-forestry segments through 2020, citing the ongoing trade war.

After nearly 17 months of trade disputes between the US and China, with no immediate resolution, farmers across Central and Midwest states have seen their personal incomes collapse, soaring farm bankruptcies, depressed commodity prices, and little relief from the government bailouts (mostly because the farm bailouts went to big corporate farms). As a result, the farming industry has plunged into a nasty recession, with tractor sales coming to a screeching halt.

Deere shares are down 3.5% to 4% on Wednesday morning following the better than expected Q4 earnings report.

Investors were alarmed when guidance for agriculture-and-turf 2020 sales was lowered by 5% to 10% for the full year. The construction and forestry segment was also guided lower, down 10% to 15% next year.

“John Deere’s performance reflected continued uncertainties in the agricultural sector,” CEO John May said. “Lingering trade tensions coupled with a year of difficult growing and harvesting conditions have caused many farmers to become cautious about making major investments in new equipment.”

The first hints that suggested farmers were being crushed by the trade war was a collapse in tractor and equipment sales reported by local dealerships across the Midwest in August.

In May, JPMorgan told clients that the US farm industry was on the verge of disaster, with farmers caught in the crossfire of an escalating trade war.

“Overall, this is a perfect storm for US farmers,” JPMorgan analyst Ann Duignan warned investors.

Duignan downgraded Deere’s stock to underweight in May, citing fundamentals in the Central and Midwest are “rapidly deteriorating.”

Deere derives 60% of its sales from North America. The lower guidance for 2020 could suggest Deere shares are headed for a big slide.

Germany/the global markets/Audi

German car maker Audi reacts to the global auto industry implosion: they slash 9500- jobs

(zerohedge)

Audi To Slash 9,500 Jobs As Global Auto Industry Implodes

Audi has made arrangements to slash 9,500 of its 61,000 workers in Germany over the next five years to streamline its business ahead of a period where the global economy is expected to grow below trend, Automotive New reported.

Though Audi’s investor relations has spun the massive job cuts as a way to transition the company into a sustainable path of investing in the future of electric cars, the actual reason for the cuts is because the global automobile industry is collapsing.

The epicenter of the automobile downturn is in ChinaIndia, Germany, and Japan. Some industry hubs in the US have already been affected.

Audi sales have plunged, and revenues and operating profits are down in the first nine months of 2019. The upcoming restructuring is in preparation for the company to weather the economic storm.

Audi will save at least $6.6 billion from the cuts, which will allow it to channel money into building out its electric car segment and create several thousand green jobs.

Audi said in a statement on Tuesday that the cuts would “take place along the demographic curve – in particular through employee turnover and a new, attractive early retirement program.”

“The company must become lean and fit for the future, which means that some job profiles will no longer be needed and new ones will be created.”

Audi employs 90,000 people around the world, 60,000 of those are in Germany.

It’s not just Audi that is experiencing a slowdown in sales. Other major German auto manufacturers are feeling the pain as the slowdown is expected to continue through 2020

 

Audi survived the 2008 financial crisis by slashing its workforce well ahead of the crisis. This time isn’t different.

Audi CEO Bram Schot said, “In times of upheaval, we are making Audi more agile and more efficient. This will increase productivity and sustainably strengthen the competitiveness of our German plants.”

World stocks at the moment are ignoring the implosion of the global automobile industry…

7. OIL ISSUES

END

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1010 DOWN .0012 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /all green

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.13 UP 0.039 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2888   UP   0.0027  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3264 DOWN .0007 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.86 POINTS OR 0.13% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 40.08 POINTS OR 0.15%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,88%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 40.08 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.86 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 88% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 64.45  POINTS OR 0.28%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1458.10

silver:$17.03-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.75% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.18 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.32 UP 7 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.38% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.11%  DOWN 3   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.40%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,21 UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 81 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.37% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.58% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1002  DOWN     .0021 or 21 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.38 UP  .281 OR YEN DOWN 28  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.28821 UP .0022 POUND UP227  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 15 basis points to 1.3285

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0290    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0189  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7787 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.11%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 21,76 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.18 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.40 UP 15  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 26.64  0.36%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 50.65 POINTS OR .38%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 2.78 POINTS 0.05%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 37.90 POINTS or 0.40%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 61.55 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.74 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.73 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE fallS:    64.05  The CROSS HIGHER BY 0.08 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 8 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.37 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.10//

 

 

BRENT :  64.12

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.77..plus 2 basis  pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.19..plus 1 basis pt..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1000 ( down 22   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.53 UP .436 (YEN DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.41 UP 15 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2893 UP 33  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7772

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.96   UP 0.02 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 2 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3281 DOWN 11 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0294  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 67.0164 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.37%

 

The Dow closed UP 42.32 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 57.74 POINTS OR 0.66%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  11.75 CLOSED UP .21

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.908%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

More Records For Stocks As Yield Curve Flattens, Dollar Rises For 7th Straight Day

“What’s your prediction for how this ends?”

China has been very quiet this week (despite the biggest collapse in industrial profits ever)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

UK’s FTSE leads Europe on the week…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Most US majors ended the day higher led by Small Caps and Tech (but Trannies underperformed)

 

VIX ended the day higher along with stocks…

 

Shorts were squeezed at the open for the 4th day in a row…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The odds of a trade deal slipped lower today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields rose across the curve today, but the long-end outperformed (2Y +4bps, 30Y +1bps) and 30Y remains lower in yield on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened significantly with 2s30s now at its flattest in almost 2 months…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar is up again today – the 7th straight day of gains (to highest since Oct 11th)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had a big day today, with most scrambling back into the green for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems $7k is a floor for now in Bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

PMs were lower on the day as copper managed very modest gains. Oil was chaotic again…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold gave back most of yesterday’s spike…

 

WTI dropped on the inventory and production data but the algos bid it back…

 

Probably nothing…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this is easy… 2013 deja vu all over again…

 

Source: Bloomberg

…And S&P 500 at 4,000 by June 30th?

Source: Bloomberg

Why not! Well they better start printing money faster or else!!

Source: Bloomberg

Because it’s all about the fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

In The Fed We Trust!

John P. Hussman@hussmanjp

Congratulations to the @FederalReserve! 😀 You’ve successfully created the most extreme, pre-collapse yield-seeking bubble in U.S. history! With lower return prospects than Aug 1929! While encouraging a debt bubble where half of all “investment grade” debt is one step above junk!

View image on Twitter
end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Durable good s order remain down year over year although they rebounded nicely in October

(zerohedge)

Durable Goods Orders Rebound Bigly In October, CapEx Proxy Surges

After unexpectedly sliding in September, Durable Goods New Orders were expected to contract further in preliminary October data but instead surprised bigly to the upside, rising 0.6% MoM (-0.9% exp) after a downward-revised 1.4% drop in September.

Notably, however, Durable Goods Orders remain down 0.9% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, the proxy for capital expenditures, Capital Goods Shipments Non-Defense Ex-Air, rose0.8% MoM (-0.2% exp) – the biggest jump since Jan 2019 (after 4 months of contraction)…

Source: Bloomberg

So with China’s Industrial Profits crashing by the most on record in October and US Durable Goods Orders rebounding aggressively, one might suggest ‘Trump is winning’ the trade war.

end
We now have revisions to 3rd quarter GDP and it unexpected;y grew by 2.1% as the Fed was cutting rates.  The 4th quarter GDP is tracking below 0.5%
(zerohedge)

Q3 GDP Unexpectedly Revised Higher: US Economy Grew 2.1% As Fed Was Cutting Rates

With GDP estimates for the current quarter printing below 0.5% according to the Atlanta and NY Fed…

… markets will probably not care much how much the BEA revised Q3 GDP, although we are confident the US president will care, and will blast it on his tweeter account shortly, after GDP in the last quarter was revised unexpectedly higher, from 1.9% to 2.1% (2.130% to be precise), and up from the 2.0% GDP print in the second quarter.

According to the BEA, the revision to GDP reflected upward revisions to inventory investment, business investment, and  consumer spending. These revisions were partly offset by a downward revision to state and local government spending.
Some more details:

  • Personal Consumption was came in at 2.9% annualized, above the 2.8% expected, and contributed 1.97% of the bottom line GDP print, up from 1.93% in the first estimate.
  • Fixed Investment was also revised modestly higher, up from -0.22% to a -0.18% detraction from GDP
    • Nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property fell 2.7% in 3Q after falling 1% prior quarter
  • Private inventories saw the biggest revision, increasing from a negative -0.05% to a positive +0.17%.
  • Net trade, while generally flat, shrank modestly, from -0.08% to -0.11%
  • Government spending also dipped fractionally, declining from 0.35% to 0.28%.

And visually:

Even as the economy grew more than expected, inflation remained subdued, with the GDP price index rising 1.8% in 3Q after rising 2.4% prior quarter, and above the 1.7% expected. Meanwhile, Core PCE rose 2.1% in 3Q after rising 1.9% prior quarter; it was below the 2.2% expected print as the Fed continues to hedonically adjust anything that does not fit the narrative of non-existent inflation.

 

Finally, corporate profit growth ground to a halt in Q3, rising at a 0.2% quarterly rate in the third quarter after increasing 3.8% in the second quarter:

  • Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased 0.7% after increasing 3.2%.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 2.4% after increasing 0.6% .
  • Profits from the rest of the world increased 1.2% after increasing 7.7% .

And while we have yet to see where Q4 GDP will come out, the fact that the Fed cut rates three times in a quarter in which the economy rose 2.1% will surely bring smiles to the faces of many Fed skeptics.

end
This is a hard data report: and it is very important for GDP calculations:  USA spending growth is the weakest since Feb
(zerohedge)

US Spending Growth Weakest Since February

Amid worries that the US consumer is tapped out (or maxed out), it appears that despite disappointment at no gain in income, spending rose 0.3% MoM (as expected)

Source: Bloomberg

But both income and spending growth slowed YoY (Spending growth weakest since Feb)

Source: Bloomberg

The savings rate tumbled from 8.1% to 7.8%…

Finally, despite 30% of respondents planning to rein in their spending this holiday season, Bloomberg’s Buying Climate survey has never been higher ahead of Black Friday…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, with credit card rates at record highs…

…all that spending what you don’t have will come at a serious cost in January.

end

After a strong new home sales and strong existing home sales, they were expecting a strong pending number. Nope..did not get it

(zerohedge)

Pending Home Sales Slide In October

A big upward revision for new home sales (to 12-year highs), and a rebound in existing home sales, were both upset by the disappointing 1.7% MoM drop in pending home sales in October.

Source: Bloomberg

Year-over-year, pending home sales rose at 3.9%, well below the 6.0% expected and the 6.3% prior level.

Only the NorthEast saw sales improve:

  • Northeast up 1.9%; Sept. fell 0.4%
  • Midwest fell 2.7%; Sept. rose 2.9%
  • South fell 1.7%; Sept. rose 2.6%
  • West fell 3.4%; Sept. fell 1.3%

And all that as mortgage rates collapsed?

Most notably, pending home sales are often considered a leading indicator of existing-home purchases and a measure of the health of the residential real estate market in coming months.

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Interesting:  American citizens cannot afford lawyers anymore as the numbers representing themselves increase

(zerohedge)

 

 

Americans Simply Can’t Afford Lawyers Anymore

In America, legal counsel is not guaranteed in civil cases the way that it is in criminal cases, and with the sky high costs of lawyers across the country, it is increasingly leading to a two-tiered justice system: those who can afford counsel and those who can’t.

More and more Americans are now representing themselves, with just one in four civil defendants represented by counsel, according to Bloomberg. This is down from nearly all defendants having lawyers in 1992, according to a 2015 study. The number of litigants without lawyers has risen in the four years since the study, as well.

An opportunity for justice is the “bedrock” of the American legal system, but pro se litigants up against attorneys are unlikely to win their cases or settle on beneficial terms. 

Trish McAllister, head of the Texas Access to Justice Commission said: “It’s really a crisis. People aren’t able to get into the courts and they’re not able to navigate them once they’re there.”

Money is the holdup in most cases: litigants simply can’t afford counsel and most attorneys won’t take cases where the payoffs are too small to justify the court appearance. Last year, the Trump administration effectively closed the Justice Department’s Office for Access to Justice, which was set up to provide access to lawyers for all Americans.

Most civil cases are usually about debt collection, landlord tenant disputes and home foreclosures. Lawyers will build their cases around litigants inexperience and inability to hire competent counsel.

Terry Lawson, a legal aid attorney in Missouri said: “These guys know they’re going to win. Their hope of hopes is that nobody will go get lawyers.” 

And it’s not always about winning or losing in civil cases. Silvana Naguib, an attorney at Public Counsel, a California pro bono legal firm commented: “Lawyers can help negotiate better settlements. There’s a stark difference between the agreements signed by self-representing litigants versus what [I get] for clients.”

 

Courts have very little mercy for litigants who represent themselves. Some offer resources like volunteers and online forms, but judges are required to hold pro se litigants to the same standard as those with counsel.

Linda Leyva lost her home to foreclosure last year and said judges could be “perplexing”. In 2017, a court rejected her motion for a continuance so she could further prepare her case and, a month later, it approved the other side’s continuance motion so the lawyer could take a vacation. 

There are still ongoing efforts to help litigants who can’t afford counsel, however. An organization called Civil Gideon is trying to expand the right to counsel to cover certain civil disputes. They were backed by the American Bar Association in 2006, but there remains questions on how the state would pay for the program.

end

Trump is ready to label cartels terror groups and this will allow entry by the USA into Mexico freely to capture them as well as stopping the banks that allow them to launder the money

(zerohedge)

Mexico Pushes Back Against Trump Plan To Label Cartels Terror Groups

Mexican officials are sounding the alarm after President Trump told Bill O’Reilly during a radio interview that he would “absolutely” designate Mexico’s drug cartels as terror groups.

During the interview, which aired for the first time last night and will re-air on Thanksgiving Day, Trump told O’Reilly, who first raised the issue, that he has been working on getting the cartels designated a terror group for the past 90 days, which means the project began before the murder of 9 US citizens in a drug-cartel ambush that killed three mothers and six young children.

Here’s a clip from the interview:

After the attack on members of the LaBaron family – a Mormon community that has been living in Mexico since the 1940s – Trump tweeted an offer of assistance to Mexco’s president, saying the US would be happy to supply troops or ‘whatever it takes’ to wipe out the cartels once and for all.

Now, Trump is weighing a terrorist designation for the cartels, which could open the door for American cross-border attacks on cartel infrastructure and cartel personnel.

According to the Washington Post, under US law, any violent foreign group or individual who “threatens American security” can be designated a terror group and be subjected to sanctions that, in this case, could seriously disrupt commerce between American and Mexican companies.

It’s also a huge problem for the banks, as anybody who remembers the $900 million money laundering scandal involving UK-based HSBC back in 2012, when the bank got caught laundering money for the drug cartels (the incident is now the subject of a Netflix documentary) and paid a massive fine (the bank has also been subjected to several civil suits).

A terror designation would seriously raise the stakes for any banks who risk handling cartel money.

Unsurprisingly, Mexico is less than thrilled about the prospect of an American crackdown on the cartels.

Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard tweeted the government’s “position”: “Mexico will never accept any action that violates our national sovereignty…We will act firmly. I have sent our position to the US as well as our resolution on combating transnational organized crime.”

 

Marcelo Ebrard C.

@m_ebrard

Nuestra posición

View image on Twitter

That’s hardly surprising, since turning to the Americans to fix Mexico’s problems would almost certainly be extremely politically unpopular for AMLO, whose popularity has already taken a dive since he took office. But with Mexico’s murder rate about to hit a new record high – a stunning development, since AMLO’s decision to end the government’s war on the cartels was supposed to lead to a deescalation of violence – the pressure is on for him to do something.

Of course, this wouldn’t be the first time President Trump has threatened to crack whip on Mexico (remember his threats to close the border, or his decision to send US troops to provide more support for border agents?).

end

More troubles for Boeing as we now have reports that its Boeing 777 fuselage split dramatically during a stress test

(zeorhedge)

Boeing Shares Slide On Reports 777 Fuselage “Split Dramatically” During Stress Test

In a blockbuster report that has hammered Boeing’s shares just before the long holiday weekend, the Seattle Times reported that a failure of a Boeing 777 stress test that had been initially reported on in September was actually worse than those reports suggested.

The ST also published what appears to be a grainy cellphone photo of the damage:

The test plane’s fusilege “split dramatically” along the underside of the plane near where the landing wheels are stowed. The body of the plane was rent open with the force of a bomb. Workers in another hanger nearby said the ground the shook and they heard a load explosion. The Seattle Times clarified that their earlier reporting about a door flying off its hinges was mistaken: the 777’s doors close from the inside and are larger than the holes they cover, but one door was seriously damaged.

When Boeing tested the original 777 model in 1995, it kept going until the aluminum wings snapped at 1.54 times limit load. On the 787, it chose to stop at 1.5 and then ease the composite wings back down again. Breaking a pair of composite wings could result in release of unhealthy fibers in the air, so it’s likely that with the 777X also having composite wings, that was the plan again this time.

But as Boeing personnel along with six FAA observers watched from the windows of a control room, at 1.48 times limit load – 99% of ultimate load – the structure gave way. Under the center fuselage, just aft of the wing and the well where the landing gear wheels are stowed, the extreme compression load caused the plane’s aluminum skin to buckle and rupture, according to the person familiar with the details.

The resulting depressurization was explosive enough that workers in the next bay heard it clearly. One worker said he heard “a loud boom, and the ground shook.”

Then there was the secondary damage…

That then caused secondary damage: The photos show that the fuselage skin split part of the way up the side of the airplane, along with areas of bent and twisted structure that extended through the area around a passenger door.

A day after the incident, based on incomplete information, The Seattle Times and other media outlets incorrectly reported that a cargo door had blown out.

Unlike the plane’s cargo doors, which hinge outward, the passenger doors on airliners are plug-type doors that only open inward and are larger than the hole they close. But the structure around that passenger door just aft of the 777X wing was so damaged that the pressure blew the door out and it fell to the floor.

These secondary damage sites — the rip up the side of the fuselage, the door blown out — alarming as they might seem, are not a concern to air safety engineers. “The doors were not a precipitating factor,” said the person familiar with the details.

It’s the initiating failure, the weakness in that localized area of the keel, that Boeing must now fix.

As uncomfortable as it sounds, Boeing probably won’t need to do a retest: Since the rupture occurred so close to the threshold level, the FAA will likely allow Boeing to make the necessary changes independently and then show its work via analysis.

A safety engineer at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), speaking anonymously without permission from the agency, said that because the blowout happened so close to the target load, it barely counts as a failure.

Boeing will have so much data gathered on the way to the 99% stage that it can now compare with its computer models to analyze the failure precisely, the FAA engineer said. It can then reinforce the weak area, and prove by analysis that that’s sufficient to cover the extra 1%.

One engineer said the rip actually isn’t anything to worry about.

The engineer said it’s not that unusual to find a vulnerability when taking an airplane structure to the edge of destruction.

“The good news is they found it and can address it,” the FAA engineer said. “They found a problem they can fix. They can beef up the structure based on analysis.”

Unfortunately for Boeing, traders weren’t in the mood for excuses, and sent the company’s shares lower in premarket trade…even as the broader market was set to open at record highs.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

@RyanAFournier: Democratic Rep. Brenda Lawrence from Illinois has backed down from supporting impeachment against President Trump.

@charliekirk11: New reports discovered that a SECOND Adam Schiff staffer served on the Atlantic Council—a Burisma funded European think tank.  Staffer Sean Misko is also reportedly “close friends” with the so-called “whistleblower”.  Adam Schiff needs to come clean.  This is outrageous!

House Judiciary Com Chairman Rep. Jerry Nadler announced the first impeachment hearings before his panel will be held on December 4.  https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/democrats.judiciary.house.gov/files/documents/2019-11-26%20JN%20Ltr%20to%20White%20House.pdf

Prosecutors Request Flynn’s Upcoming Hearing Be Suspended Pending IG Report https://saraacarter.com/prosecutors-request-to-suspend-flynns-hearing-citing-upcoming-ig-report/

Solomon: Steele distributed other dossier reports, including one to an oligarch’s lawyer

The title of the dossier was “FIRTASH Abortive Return to Ukraine,” and it purported to provide intelligence on why the energy oligarch Dmitri Firtash tried, but failed, to return to his home country of Ukraine… “Separate American sources confirm that US Government regards FIRTASH as a conduit for Russian influence and he remains a pariah to the Americans.”  The anecdote of the Firtash report underscores that challenges the FBI faced when it used Steele in 2016 as a human source in the Russia collusion probe…   https://johnsolomonreports.com/steele-distributed-other-dossier-reports-including-one-to-an-oligarchs-lawyer/

Trump said he will designate Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.

Obama to 2020 Democrat: Biden “really doesn’t have it”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/obama-to-2020-democrat-biden-really-doesnt-have-it

Obama privately said he would speak up to stop Sanders

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/472090-obama-privately-said-he-would-speak-up-to-stop-sanders-report

Joe Biden Campaign’s Senior Latina Adviser Quits

Her exit was prompted by the campaign’s lack of focus on Latino issues…

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2019/11/25/joe-biden-campaigns-senior-latina-adviser-quits/

Bloomberg union demands bosses remove ban on investigating 2020 Dems: ‘Silencing journalists’

“We are extremely alarmed by management’s decision,” the union wrote.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/michael-bloomberg-news-journalism-union

We hope you have a Happy and Reflective Thanksgiving!

end

Let us close with this great interview of Catherine Fitts and Greg Hunter

A few years ago Dr Skidmore discovered the missing 21 trillion dollars and Catherine Fitts verified this. Fitts talks about the coming USA collapse

(courtesy Fitts/Greg Hunter)

Putin Predicting US Dollar Collapse is Serious Warning – Catherine Austin Fitts

By Greg Hunter On November 27, 2019

Investment advisor and former Assistant Secretary of Housing Catherine Austin Fitts thinks Vladimir Putin saying “the dollar is going to collapse soon” is a flashing warning for the U.S. dollar’s value in the not- so-distant future. Fitts explains, “What Putin is saying is the dollar is going into a steep decline, and what was interesting about his comment is he said ‘soon.’ . . . What is the ability of the U.S. military versus the Russian or Chinese military to defend the dollar’s position? That is intelligence that Putin has, and because Putin has this intelligence, people really stood up and I really stood up and took notice. If Putin has access to that intelligence, and I don’t, which is saying the dollar could go into a deep decline, we need to take a serious look at it. The dollar is clearly under pressure, and if you look at reserves, the central banks are buying gold and selling dollars, including the Russians and Chinese.”

Fitts also points out, “The dollar is holding, and yet, if you look at the price of household goods in America, where I live, it’s approximately 8% to 10% a year in prices of household goods (going up), and you can tell the money printing has been significant. If you look at what the Fed is doing in the repo market, we are really on the next QE. So, we’ve got a problem with currency debasement, and what Putin is saying is it’s going to go faster, a lot faster in 2020, and that is an issue I am looking at. . . . One of the scenarios I am looking at is the dollar declines significantly in 2020. . . . When you have real household inflation at 10% every year for the past five years, the dollar has really already taken a hit as are many fiat currencies around the world. . . . What has really supported the dollar is its huge market share both in trade and traditionally in reserves. . . . You need to withstand a scenario where in 2020, instead of getting 10% inflation, you need to withstand 20% or 25% inflation in real household goods. . . . I have been saying for many, many years the dollar is strong. This is the first time I started to see the potential for a crack in the armor. I think we have to be prepared for the potential for a more serious decline than we’ve been dealing with for the last five years.”

What adds to the uncertainty of the U.S. dollar is the “missing” $21 trillion that was discovered by Dr. Mark Skidmore and analyzed and recognized as a huge problem by Catherin Austin Fitts, publisher of the popular Solari Report. Also, analysis Fitts has done on the government making the “missing money” a “national security issue” with FASAB rule 56 (Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board) makes the secret money a hidden horror the general public is totally unaware of. Fitts explains, “The dollar is under pressure because we have been talking about the ‘missing money’ and FASAB rule 56, and the dollar is not what it used to be. If you look at the integrity behind the dollar, it’s not there. If you read “The Real Game of Missing Money,” which we did this big article for investors to do due diligence, the arrangements behind the dollar and the Treasury market do not have integrity. The deceleration of the integrity of the dollar is very significant and serious. . . . You’ve got to be more resilient, and it’s not just finances, you’ve got to be more resilient in terms of safety. If we have this kind of breakdown with the rule of law with FASAB rule 56, it’s not going to take long before it breaks into your neighborhood.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Catherine Austin Fitts, the publisher of The Solari Report found on Solari.com.

-END-World economic news:

Well that is all for today

I wish to all our American friends a very happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday

I will see you Friday night.

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: