DEC 4//ANOTHER RAID TRYING TO QUELL GOLD/SILVER’S DEMAND: GOLD DOWN $4.00 DOWN TO $1474.60//SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TO $16.86//HUGE GAIN OF 28,000 COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS LAST NIGHT//HUGE QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD AT 1.6 TONNES//MORE FRENCH PROTESTS DUE TO MACRON’S ATTEMPT AT PENSION REFORM// ADP PRIVATE JOB REPORTS VERY WEAK AS WE AWAIT THE GOVERNMENT REPORT ON FRIDAY//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1474.60 DOWN $4.00    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Silver:$16.86 DOWN 31 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) : 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1475.00

 

silver:  $16.86

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  0/2025

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,462.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/02/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/04/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 59
132 H SG AMERICAS 1
152 C DORMAN TRADING 3
323 C HSBC 29
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 2
357 C WEDBUSH 1
365 C ED&F MAN CAPITA 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 37
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 38
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 19
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 136
686 C INTL FCSTONE 83 5
690 C ABN AMRO 119 55
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 49 7
800 C MAREX SPEC 187 28
880 C CITIGROUP 14
880 H CITIGROUP 72
905 C ADM 3 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 12/02/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 12/02/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:28:40
MONTH TO DATE: 6,733

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 2025 NOTICE(S) FOR 202500 OZ (6.2986 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8758 NOTICES FOR 875,800 OZ  (27.2410 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

170 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 850,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2543 for 12,715,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7206 DOWN 88 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7546 DOWN 70

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 2498 CONTRACTS FROM 204,547 UP TO 205,807 WITH THE 25 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; DEC 0; MARCH:  1614 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1614 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1614 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1614 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.07 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 25 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

17.530   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER BUT THEY COULD NOT CONTAIN SILVER’S STRENGTH  (IT ROSE BY 25 CENTS). ALSO, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A WHOPPING 4341 CONTRACTS. OR 2.1.705 MILLION OZ…..

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

4603 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 4603 CONTRACTS) OR 23.02 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1151 CONTRACTS OR 5.75 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  23.02 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AND WILL MORPH INTO SILVER AS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,105.68   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2498, WITH THE 25 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1614 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED: 4112 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1614 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2498  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 25 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.17 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.030 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 147% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 170 NOTICE(S) FOR 850,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  17.530 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND HUGELY CRIMINAL SIZED 28,834 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING MUCH CLOSER THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 701,016. THE RISE IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED WITH A STRONG $15.00 PRICING GAIN ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// YESTERDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 15,690 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  15,690 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 701,016,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 44,524 CONTRACTS: 28,834 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 15,690 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 44,524 CONTRACTS OR 4,452,400 OZ OR 138.848 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $15.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 138.48  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP  $15.00) .THEY WERE ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (138.48 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION WILL NOW SWITCH OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 37,575 CONTRACTS OR 3,757,500 oz OR 116.87 TONNES (4 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,393 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 116.87 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 116.87/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.29% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5842.57  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 28,834 WITH THE STRONG PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($15.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 15,690 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 15,690 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND VERY CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 44,524 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

15,690 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 28,834 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 138.48 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUMONGOUS INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $15.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  2025 notice(s) filed upon for 202,500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

DEC 4/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 889.16 tonnes

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2498 CONTRACTS from 204,547 UP TO 205,807 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 ; FOR DEC  XX: MARCH: 1614   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1614 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2498  CONTRACTS TO THE 1614 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 4112 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 20.56 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ///NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 17.530 MILLION OZ//

 

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 25 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1614 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 POINTS OR 0.23%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 328.74 POINTS OR 1.25%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 244.58 POINTS OR 1.05%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0525 /Oil UP TO 56.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0525 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0527 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan

My goodness, something is up…Japan’s largest pension fund will now stop lending shares to short sellers as they believe we are on the cusp of a market crash

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

i)China vows a major response after the USA house votes to sanction Chinese officials over Uighur abuse. And we are close to a trade deal  (just kidding)

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

The pound hits a 7 month high as traders are betting of a big Tory victory

(zerohedge)

ii)UK

UK’s largest property fund suddenly halts redemptions because they cannot sell properties fast enough

(zerohedge)

iii)FRANCE

France is rebelling as Macron wants to redo the pension system.  France allows metro drivers the right for an early pension as early as 50 yrs.  Also their retirement benefit is the equivalentof $4100 per month..higher than any country in Europe.  France has powerful unions and you do not want to mess around with these guys.
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Turkey

This is rather dangerous..Turkey asserts ownership of all gas rights inside Cypriot waters and a major part of Greek waters. Israel will have to defend Cyprus.

(zerohedge)

ii)Syria

The Syrian pound was battered this week reaching a low of 950 pounds per dollar.  This war torn nation is paying the price for sponsoring terrorism
(Al-Masdar News)

6.Global Issues

i)Yesterday and today’s major events through the eyes of Michael Every
(Michael Every)

ii)This will not be good for Canadian PM Trudeau, French President Macron and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson..all caught laughing at Trump with a hot Mic(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

This will be good for both countries as China as the mega pipeline from Siberia to China goes on line

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Interesting..there are more dollars in Venezuela than bolivars\

(Bloomberg)/gATA

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Generally the ADP report is quite bullish..not this time as it disappoints with the second lowest print in a decade

This Friday we get the government’s take on the jobs

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)What a joke: a CNBC Chinese reporter pours cold water on Bloomberg’s unsourced trade deal optimism

(zerohedge)

ii)Not sure if this is a good idea to implement this fight now as we will probably have a massive revolt on our hands..Trump to cut 750,000 souls off of food stamps(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)A good background as the origins of  Russiagate

Farrell/Gatestone

ii)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 28,834 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 701,016 ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN OF $15.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 15,690 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 0 ; FEB: 15,690  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  15,690 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 44,524TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 15,690 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED AN UNBELIEVABLY SIZED 28,834 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS DONALD TRUMP WAS ON THE WARPATH YESTERDAY AGAINST CHINA AND FRANCE (IT ROSE BY $15.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 44,524 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  44,524 CONTRACTS OR 4,452,400 OZ OR 138.48 TONNES.

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 4025 open interest stand for a GAIN of 188 contracts.  We had 480 notices filed upon yesterday so we AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED AN UNHEARD OF AND WHOPPING  668 contracts or an additional 66,800 will stand (2.098 TONNES) for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and negated on receiving a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI LOSS by 177 contracts DOWN to 3946 which is extremely high for a January delivery month.. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A WHOPPING GAIN  OF 21,409 in contracts up to 521,571.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

 

WE HAD 2025 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  202500 OZ. (6.2986 TONNES)

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 2498CONTRACTS FROM 204,547 UP TO 205,807 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 25 CENT RISE IN PRICING./YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a loss of 218 contracts down to 1247. We had 262 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we SURPRISINGLY GAINED 44 contracts or an additional 220,000  oz will  stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards and as well NEGATED a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

After December we have the non active month of January and here we see that we GAINED 73 contracts UP to 1066.  FEBRUARY  saw its ANOTHER addition of 48 contracts to stand at 54.  MARCH saw an increase of 1960 contracts up to 162,879.  March is a very active month for silver.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 170 notice(s) filed for 850,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 320,959  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  427,804  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 4/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
3040.951 oz
Brinks
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2025 notice(s)
 202500 OZ
(6.2986 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2000 contracts
(200000 oz)
6.220 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8758 notices
875,800 OZ
27.24 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii)everybody else:  nil

 

 

 

total gold deposits:

 

nil

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

I) OUT OF  Brinks:  32.151 oz  (one kilobar)

II) OUT OF SCOTIA:  3008.801 OZ

 

total gold withdrawals; 3040.951  oz

We had 3 adjustments

i) Out of Int. Delaware: 124,806.584 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Int. Delaware
ii) Out of BNS: 6835.660 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account and we will deem that a settlement:  .2126 tonnes

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  513.930 oz was adjusted out the customer and this landed into the dealer account..and then this was pledged and thus taken out of registered category.

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2025 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8758) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (4025 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (2025 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,075,800 OZ OR 33.46 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (8758 x 100 oz)  + (4041)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2025 x 100 oz )which equals 1,075,800 oz standing OR 33.46 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

We gained 688 contracts or an additional 68,800 oz will stand at the comex as they morphed into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.824 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              33.46 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 11.3124 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 109.44  tonnes (corrected from yesterday)

Thus:

109.44 tonnes of delivery –

11.3124 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 98.128 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.8241 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,389,834.939 oz or  43.229 tonnes 
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,152281.3 oz (35.8241 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//and JPMorgan 513.930 oz (.0159 tonnes)
    total  238,067.576 oz (7.40490 tonnes) 
total registered pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,824,788.502 oz 274.48 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 4 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 40,735.412 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
170
CONTRACT(S)
(850,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1077 contracts
 5,385,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2543 contracts

12,715,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.4% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/313.4 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT; 40,735.412 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 40,735.412  oz

We had 2 adjustment:

i) Delaware: 206,071.014 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

ii) Out of HSBC: 4996.35 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of HSBC

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.588 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.450 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 170 contract(s) FOR 850,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2543 x 5,000 oz = 12,715 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (1247) and the number of notices served upon today 170 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 2543 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (1247)- number of notices served upon today (170) x 5000 oz equals 18,100,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We gained 44 contracts or an additional 220,000 oz will  stand at the comex as they refused to morph into London based forwards. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 170 notice(s) filed for 850,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  108,936 CONTRACTS //volume increases due to raid

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 95,179 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 95,179 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 476 million  OZ 68.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.61% ((DEC 4/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.12% to NAV (DEC 4/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.61%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.62 TRADING 14.08///DISCOUNT  3,72

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 4/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 889.16 tonnes

*IN LAST 717 TRADING DAYS: 48.09 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 617 TRADING DAYS: A NET 118.96 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

 

 

DEC 5:  SLV INVENTORY

368.969 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.94/ and libor 6 month duration 1.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.93%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.94

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Global ‘Gold Rush’ Beginning As Investors and Central Banks Buy, Repatriate and Move Gold

Watch latest GoldCore video here

◆ Gold is flowing to strong hands in safer forms of gold ownership, in safer jurisdictions

◆ Gold and silver bullion coins and bars owned by GoldCore’s clients have been moved from Hong Kong to Singapore

◆ Central bank and institutional gold rush is beginning as prudent money diversifies fx reserves by buying gold & repatriates their gold from London and New York

◆ Central banks are repatriating gold and buying gold as never before due to macroeconomic, geopolitical, systemic and monetary risks

◆ Poland’s government completed the repatriation of 100 tons of gold bullion; 8,000 gold bars worth $5 billion were moved by G4S from the Bank of England to the Polish central bank

◆ Serbia, Poland and Hungary have boosted their safe haven gold bullion reserves to protect their foreign exchange holdings and hedge growing monetary and systemic risks

◆ Slovakia has joined China, Russia and a host of countries buying gold or seeking to repatriate their gold from the Bank of England and the New York Federal Reserve

◆ Global rush to gold is leading to a run on ‘bank gold’ which is gold stored with banks and indeed a run on on the ‘gold bank’ in the form of central banks including the Fed and the Bank of England

◆ Prepare now with physical gold coins and bars in your possession or in fully segregated storage in Singapore and Zurich

Watch video here

NEWS & COMMENTARY

Gold hits near 1-month high as trade drag prompts safety buying

Dow drops 350 points, biggest fall in 2 months, after Trump says he could wait on China deal

Wall Street sinks as Trump hints at delay in trade deal with China

U.S. Treasury yields continue fall; 10-year yield at 1.7020%

NY Fed has some explaining to do over Morgan Stanley’s unreported trading losses

Germany Is The Rotten Heart Of Europe

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

03-Dec-19 1470.40 1477.30, 1132.50 1136.78 & 1328.51 1333.12
02-Dec-19 1457.50 1461.15, 1130.00 1130.05 & 1323.26 1321.17
29-Nov-19 1456.35 1460.15, 1129.55 1131.32 & 1323.24 1327.42
28-Nov-19 1457.55 1454.65, 1127.27 1127.35 & 1323.60 1321.84
27-Nov-19 1459.80 1454.35, 1134.12 1129.74 & 1326.23 1322.30
26-Nov-19 1457.65 1454.65, 1133.76 1131.86 & 1322.96 1321.11
25-Nov-19 1459.45 1458.40, 1133.41 1130.84 & 1325.33 1323.35
22-Nov-19 1471.30 1464.45, 1143.05 1140.22 & 1330.35 1326.06
19-Nov-19 1464.90 1468.45, 1132.37 1134.23 & 1323.68 1325.86
18-Nov-19 1458.40 1467.65, 1124.86 1132.59 & 1318.10 1325.88

Watch Podcast Here

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Interesting..there are more dollars in Venezuela than bolivars\

(Bloomberg)/gATA

end

There are more dollars in Venezuela now than there are bolivars

 Section: 

By Alex Vasquez
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, December 3, 2019

The U.S. dollar has extended its dominance in Venezuela as local people increasingly turn to the greenback for even the smallest of purchases.

Physical dollars now account for more than half of all retail transactions as the amount in circulation has increased to as high as $2.7 billion, according to data from the Caracas-based research firm Ecoanalitica. That’s three times the value of all the cash bolivars in existence combined with the amount of local currency held in checking and savings accounts, the data show.

The dollar has taken hold of the economy following years of devaluations and hyperinflation that eroded the value of the bolivar to a level that hovers just a hair above worthless, and amid a shortage of local-currency notes.

Rather than putting in the work to assemble a big enough pile of bolivar notes and dragging them around in bags, it’s more practical for Venezuelans to conduct their commerce in dollar bills flown into the country as remittances or picked up at exchange houses at the borders of Colombia and Brazil. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-03/there-are-more-dollar…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

Dave Kranzler believes that the repo cash is being used because on or maybe two banks are in deep trouble

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

Dave Kranzler: Sinking collateralized loan products prompted frantic new QE

 Section: 

12:27p ET Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver argues today that the New York Fed’s new frantic “repo” cash operation has been prompted by the need of the banking industry to offset the sharply declining value of collateralized loan obligations, dodgy debt similar to the dodgy debt of collateralized subprime mortgages whose collapse caused the world financial crisis of 2008.

That is, Kranzler writes, what is happening now is much like the situation portrayed in the movie “The Big Short.”

Kranzler’s analysis is headlined “The Truth Behind the ‘Repo’ Non-QE QE Money Printing” and it’s posted at IRD here:

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-truth-behind-the-repo-non-qe-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Craig Hemke describes the phony Exchange for physicals in a similar fashion to myself..it is a mechanism of fantasy

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: ‘Exchange for physicals’ is a mechanism of fantasy

 Section: 

12:50p ET Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The mysterious “exchange for physicals” mechanism increasingly used by the New York Commodities Exchange to dispose of gold futures contracts purports to have resolved more than 4 million contracts in the last two years, or more than 13,000 tonnes of gold, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money.

Hemke writes: “That’s more than the combined holdings of the Unites States, Germany, and Switzerland. It’s also about five times the total annual global mine supply.”

… 

Such amounts are “fantasy,” Hemke writes, and EFPs are just another tool of price suppression. Once again he encourages investors to get their gold out of the banking system before it gets a margin call that can’t be met.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Exchange for Physical?” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/exchange-for-physical-craig-hemke-04-12…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Will you let GATA fail to capture the $5,000 matching grant?

 Section: 

1:14p ET, Wednesda

 

endy, December 4, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

While we’re up against many matching-grant fundraising campaigns this month, at our current pace GATA is not going to achieve the $5,000 in donations we need to raise in December to claim the $5,000 matching grant so generously offered to us by Stefan Gleason and Money Metals Exchange.

Yes, the monetary metals sector has been demoralized for a long time. But GATA still carries on the struggle every day in the belief that free and transparent markets and limited and accountable government are prerequisites of decent civilization.

Our campaign this month comes with a chance to win a case of excellent private-label GATA wine, thanks to another extraordinary gift, that of the Fay J Winery in Texarkana, Texas. Even a contribution of $10 will be more than we’ll ever get from Newmont Mining, so don’t be embarrassed if your donation is not as large as you might like it to be.

So please take another look at our appeal here:

http://www.gata.org/node/19645

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.0525/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0527   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 6.58 POINTS OR 0.23%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 328.74 POINTS OR 1.25%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 244.58 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.69/Euro FALLS TO 1.1076

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.68/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.98 and Brent: 61.98

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.34%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.29% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.42%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.63: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.54

3k Gold at $1477.60 silver at: 17.15   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 17/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.95

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.68 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9890 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0955 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.34%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.74% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.19%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7393..

 

Global Markets Rocket Higher After Blue Horseshoe Loves China Trade Deal

IN OTHER WORDS…A BIG JOKE!!

The worst start to a December since 2008 for the S&P500 was apparently too much for certain people who asked Bloomberg not to be identified.

With hopes of a trade deal in shambles, optimism that a “Phase 1” getting signed in 2019 cracking after Trump said yesterday it may be better to delay the deal until after the Nov 2020 election, and China threatening retaliation after the latest House bill almost unanimously voted to sanction Chinese officials over Uighur abuse, even the Global Times’ notorious twitter troll, Hu Xijing, tweeted this morning that there is “a high probability that President Trump or a senior US official will openly say in a few hours that China-US trade talks have made a big progress in order to pump up the US stock markets. They’ve been doing this a lot.”

He was almost 100% accurate, because at almost the exact same time, just after 4am as US futures were sharply rolling over, and a perfectly normal time for such articles market-moving articles, Bloomberg reported that according to “people familiar who asked not to be identified”, the U.S. and China were actually “moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang” and that Trump’s comment “downplaying the urgency of a deal shouldn’t be understood to mean the talks were stalling, as he was speaking off the cuff.”

In other words, Larry Kudlow Blue Horseshoe loves China trade deal.

There were naturally questions about the Bloomberg piece: like why does an “unknown” source who “thinks” the deal is imminent take precedence, when very known people, , i.e., the US president and Wilbur Ross, both said a deal may not happen for almost a year and that if there is no substantial progress, another round of duties on Chinese imports would take effect on Dec. 15; or why was this “respected” Larry Kudlow source so terrified to give his name on the record if everything checks out?

None of that mattered however, and the market response, as Hu predicted, was instantaneous, sending not only S&P futures sharply higher and importantly, above the critical for dealer gamma level of 3,100, instantly reversing the gloom of the past few days…

… but sent global stocks into a sea of green.

The short squeeze that was triggered after investors layered on shorts into the worst first two days of a December since the financial crisis, went global and miners and chemical producers led the rise on the Stoxx Europe 600 gauge, which rocketed over 1% higher in early trading, even though IHS Markit’s composite PMI index for the euro zone reading at 50.6 pointed to growth of only 0.1% in the fourth quarter. That would be the weakest since the 19-nation region emerged from recession in 2013.

Earlier in the session, markets closed lower across much of Asia as the Bloomberg deus ex ma-China came out too late to help them, with Australia and Hong Kong bearing the brunt of the declines. Declines were led by energy producers, as investors were still focused on the story du jour – at least until the Bloomberg unnnamed sources became “it” – in which trade tensions mounted between Beijing and Washington with a new tariff hike on Chinese goods looming large. Almost all markets in the region were down, with South Korea and Hong Kong leading declines. The Topix retreated, driven by electronic companies and drug makers, as Japan’s government called for decisive fiscal action combined with powerful central bank easing. The Shanghai Composite Index slid, with large insurers and banks among the biggest drags. China is likely to cut the reserve ratio for lenders in the first quarter of next year, the China Securities Journal said in a front-page commentary Wednesday. India’s Sensex edged lower a day before an expected rate cut aimed at reviving growth, as Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank weighed on the gauge.

Treasuries initially caught a bid to session highs on reports that passage of the latest bill could jeopardize a U.S.-China phase one deal. However, the haven bid for Treasuries during Asia session was unwound in European morning trade on the Bloomberg report, overriding negative comments earlier from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The TSY curve steepened, unwinding a portion of Tuesday’s aggressive bull-flattening move. Yields were higher by 1.2bp to 2.4bp across the curve led by long-end, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s by 1.2bp and 0.5bp; 10-year yields at 1.738%, cheaper by 2.2bp vs. Tuesday’s close. Treasuries were supported during Asia session after China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said U.S. will “pay price” for legislation imposing sanctions on Chinese officials over human-rights abuses.

In FX, the dollar briefly recovered against major peers, then headed sharply lower. The euro edged down after a manufacturing report showed that the single-currency economy is barely expanding. The British pound climbed to an almost seven-month high against the dollar and its strongest level since May 2017 against the euro as polls showed the Conservatives have increased their lead before the election. Tracking the positive newsflow, the Chinese yuan spiked, in a virtual mirror image of the move in US futures.

As expected, crude markets were bolstered on the news that the US and China are moving closer to a deal despite recent “heated” rhetoric. Elsewhere, the latest batch of comments from the Iraqi oil minister continues to support prices; an additional 400k bpd cut for OPEC+ is apparently in circulation but not final, while the Saudi’s also reportedly prefer deeper cuts, although this contradicts sources reports seen last month. “If all members were compliant with the [current] deal this may be the case, however, with a number of members falling well short in cutting output, including Iraq, other members may be reluctant to cut further” says ING, who goes on to conclude that “reassurance of stronger compliance will likely be needed before other members agree to deeper cuts.”

Looking at the day ahead, this morning the focus will be on the final November PMI revisions (services and composite) in Europe while we’ll also get that data for the US, along with the November ISM non-manufacturing and November ADP employment report. Away from that, we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Visco, Makhlouf and Hernandez de Cos while the Fed’s Quarles is due to speak on supervision and regulation. Campbell Soup and Synopsys are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,102.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1% to 402.43
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 163.21
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 518.12
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 23,135.23
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,703.27
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 26,062.56
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,878.12
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 40,822.98
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 6,606.51
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,068.89
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to -0.341%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1070
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 6.4 bps to 0.938%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.413%
  • Brent futures up 1.9% to $61.96/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,474.90
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.76

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved legislation that would impose sanctions on Chinese officials over human rights abuses against Muslim minorities, prompting Beijing to threaten possible retaliation just as the world’s two largest economies seek to close a trade deal
  • “I don’t have a deadline,” President Trump tells reporters in London after being asked if he sees phase one of a trade deal with China concluding this year. “I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now and we’ll see whether not the deal is going to be right”
  • Australia’s economy slowed last quarter as interest-rate cuts and government tax rebates failed to spur household spending, reinforcing expectations the central bank will need to resume easing next year
  • Oil defied trade-deal bearishness to rise for a third day after an industry report pointed to shrinking U.S. crude stockpiles and before OPEC+ decides on its output-cut policy later this week. OPEC+ sends mixed signals about deeper output cuts before talks
  • House Democrats laid out their most comprehensive case yet for impeaching Donald Trump, declaring the president “a clear and present danger” over his rush to get foreign governments to investigate a political rival and making his intimidation of witnesses tantamount to a crime
  • U.S. President Donald Trump revived both his “Rocket Man” nickname for Kim Jong Un and the threat of military force against North Korea, in the latest sign of rising tensions ahead of Pyongyang’s year-end deadline
  • While IHS Markit’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index for the euro zone stabilized at 50.6 in November, above the flash reading of 50.3, it points to growth of only 0.1% in the fourth quarter. That would be the weakest since the 19-nation region emerged from recession in 2013
  • Foreign direct investment into China jumped last year to $139 billion even as trade tensions escalated, bucking a trend that saw global flows sink 13% from 2017 levels
  • OPEC and its allies sent mixed signals about whether they were considering deeper production cuts, fanning oil-market speculation before crucial talks in Vienna this week
  • Germany’s Social Democrats backed away from a threat to ditch their alliance with Chancellor Angela Merkel and eased demands for the government to abandon its balanced-budget policy

Asian equity markets extended on declines as global risk appetite remained sapped by the turbulent trade climate following yesterday’s comments by US President Trump. ASX 200 (-1.6%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) were lower with pressure in the trade-related sectors resulting in Australia’s continued underperformance which was also not helped by a miss in quarterly GDP growth, while the Japanese benchmark tracked the recent slide in USD/JPY and with reports noting the GPIF’s move to end stock lending could rattle markets. Hang Seng (-1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) were dampened by the increased trade pessimism after President Trump’s comments and with Global Times suggesting the US appears to be back-pedalling in trade talks. The US House’s overwhelming support for the Uighur human rights bill demanding sanctions on Chinese officials, which it passed through 407-1 vote, also contributed to the bilateral tensions and spurred resolute opposition from China which will respond depending on how the situation develops. Nonetheless, losses in the mainland have been stemmed after strong Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI numbers added to the country’s recent flurry of strong activity data and as Chinese press op-ed suggested the PBoC are expected to cut RRR in Q1. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher after the recent gains in T-notes due to safe-haven bids, but with prices off their best levels after failing to hold above the 153.00 level and with the lack of BoJ presence in the market contributing to the mild overnight retracement.

Top Asian News

  • India Is Said to Mull Easing Lending Rules for Shadow Banks
  • Hong Kong Announces Further Stimulus Worth $500 Million
  • China’s First IPO Flop Since 2012 Shows Confidence Breaking

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%) are firmer following reports that the US and China are moving closer to a deal despite recent “heated” rhetoric gave a boost to risk appetite. The FTSE 100 (+0.3%) is a laggard due to a firmer sterling. In terms of further fundamental catalysts on the horizon; Day 2 of the NATO summit begins and traders will be on the look-out for further clues as to the state of play on the US/EU and US/China front, quite possibly in the form of off-the-cuff comments from the US President, with the former two in the midst of clashes over the WTO’s ruling on EU Airbus subsidies and most recently France’s proposed Digital Services Tax, while tensions between the latter two have most recently been worsened following the US House’s passing of the Uighur Human Rights Bill. Sectors are mostly in the green, with Telecoms (unch.) the laggard as the sector is weighed by underperformance in heavyweight Orange (-3.8%), with traders reportedly disappointed by the Co.’s most recent dividend outlook. Elsewhere, Italian banks, including Intesa Sanpaolo (+1.8%) and UniCredit (+1.6%), are on the front foot after Moody’s upgraded the outlook for Italian banking to stable from negative. Solid earnings from US Microchip last night is acting as supportive for European chipmakers, including Infineon Technologies (+2.2%). In terms of other notable individual movers; Elior (+7.8%) opened higher after the Co. posted strong earnings, in which FY net profit posted solid Y/Y gains. Further gains were seen for easyJet (+2.1%), with the Co. set to join the FTSE 100, and Hiscox (-1.0%) and Fresnillo (-3.8%) to be dropped. In terms of the losers; Aviva (+0.2%) lags the FTSE 100, having been downgraded at Barclays. Elsewhere, Securitas (unch.) underperforms following a downgrade at Deutsche Bank.

Top European News

  • U.K. Economy on Course for Contraction as Services Falter
  • Euro- Area Economy Is Just About Growing as Factory Slump Spreads
  • GAM Faces Regulator Penalty for Misstating Quant Fund Deal
  • ECB Places Goldman Unit Under Direct Supervision Amid Brexit

In FX, the sterling rose to the top of the G10 ranks in early EU hours following a relatively sideways APAC session in which GBP/USD meandered on either side of 1.3000. The pair gained momentum after tripping stops at 1.3013 and advanced to a current intraday high of 1.3063 (ahead of its 200 WMA around 1.3100) before waning off highs and back below its 100 WMA at 1.3048. News-flow has been light for Sterling, with the currency little influenced by a revision higher to its November services and composite PMI metrics. That said, IHS noted that the PMI figures point to a GBP contraction of ~0.1% in the Q4, but the December numbers are yet to be released. Meanwhile, the Eur has been moving at the whim of the Buck and largely shrugged off upward revisions to the pan-European services and composite numbers – with the GDP tracker suggesting growth of 0.1% in Q4 for the EZ. IHS did warn that the services sectors are poised for its weakest QQ expansion for fives years, “hinting strongly that the slowdown continues to spread”. EUR/USD moved into negative territory and back below its 100 DMA (1.1069) after hitting an intraday peak 1.1088, with little EU-specific data/speakers left on the docket.

  • DXY, JPY – The broad Dollar and Index has recouped earlier losses with upside coinciding with constructive trade headlines from sources, prompting the DXY to rebound off its 200 DMA at 97.63 back to yesterday’s closing levels around 97.75. Meanwhile, USD/JPY ekes mild losses amid the aforementioned headlines with the pair back above the 108.50 mark (coincides with its 50 DMA), to a high of 108.80 ahead of the rough figure. Traders will be eyeing any trade/geopolitical headlines with NATO summit day 2 underway and US President Trump’s presser scheduled for 15:30GMT.
  • AUD, NZD – Both lower on the day, but more-so the Aussie on the back of disappointing GDP figures with the QQ metric showing growth of only 0.4%, down from the prior of 0.5%. Analysts mention that the most concerning aspect of the release is the representation of a fifth consecutive quarter which private demand contracted or was flat. Westpac notes that the RBA will be disappointed with the figure and believes that the Central Bank and the Government will have to revisit their growth forecasts. AUD/USD climbed off lows in wake of optimistic US-China trade headlines, but gains remain capped due to the overnight data. The pair remains in the red around the middle of its 0.6813-0.6846 band having briefly dipped below its 100 DMA at 0.6816. The Kiwi piggybacks on the Aussie’s losses and hovers just above the 0.65 mark, off highs of 0.6530.

In commodities, Iraq Oil Minister stated that an additional 400k bpd cut for OPEC+ is in circulation but not final and that all members should share the burden, while he added that slower demand is a bigger impact next year than non-OPEC supply. Furthermore, the Oil Minister added that it is his understanding that Saudi prefers a deeper cut and that deeper cuts are preferred by members. Crude markets are bolstered (in line with other risk assets) on the news that the US and China are moving closer to a deal despite recent “heated” rhetoric. Elsewhere, the latest batch of comments from the Iraqi oil minister continues to support prices; an additional 400k bpd cut for OPEC+ is apparently in circulation but not final, while the Saudi’s also reportedly prefer deeper cuts, although this contradicts sources reports seen last month. “If all members were compliant with the [current] deal this may be the case, however, with a number of members falling well short in cutting output, including Iraq, other members may be reluctant to cut further” says ING, who goes on to conclude that “reassurance of stronger compliance will likely be needed before other members agree to deeper cuts.” Moreover, yesterday saw the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee meet in Vienna ahead of the full ministerial meetings on Thursday and Friday and they reportedly did not discuss deeper cuts. Reports did suggest that the Joint Technical Committee is considering Russia’s request to exclude condensate from its oil production cuts, which has been rising as of late in line with the country’s rising gas output and has been cited as the reason for the country’s poor OPEC+ compliance. Elsewhere, also underpinning the crude complex is last night’s larger than expected draw in headline API Inventories; traders will now focus on EIA Inventory data this afternoon for further confirmation. WTI futures meanders around USD 57/bbl while its Brent counterpart eyes USD 62/bbl to the upside having earlier eclipsed the level. Moving onto metals, risk on has hit gold prices, which have fallen to just above USD 1470/oz from earlier highs of USD 1490/oz. Meanwhile, copper has been buoyed, popping to USD 2.6450/lbs highs from its earlier USD 2.62-2.63/lbs range. Elsewhere, iron ore prices found further impetus after data showed that shipments from Brazil had dropped since the last week; prices have been underpinned in recent days by the news that Vale, the world’s largest miner of Iron Ore, cut its production outlook and production at its Brutucu mine has been halted due to safety issues regarding a nearby dam.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.5%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 135,000, prior 125,000
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 51.6, prior 51.6; 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 51.9
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 54.5, prior 54.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A quiz question to start this morning. Complete the following sequence… 19.6%, 25.7%, 20.5%, 27.3%, 15.5%, 10.8%, 13%, 16%, 13.3%, 18.7%, xxx%…….??? ….. answer at the end of today’s EMR.

If you’ve had enough of 2020 outlooks as we progress through December then don’t fear as later today my team and I will publish our latest Konzept magazine where we will “Imagine 2030” and look at a number of eclectic articles suggesting what the world might look like at the end of the next decade. So if you want to know about the end of credit cards, whether we’ll still be using cash, the future of crypto currencies, how you will consume food, the rise of the drones, the outlook for India and China, what Europe needs to do to compete and catch-up, and what we think will be the main populism battleground in 2030 then watch out for this later. There are 24 articles in total and some are more serious than others. One of my favourites is one from Luke on the future of pro sports stats. Every potential move will be AI analysed by 2030 and players trained accordingly. Hopefully, I’ll also have a robot swinging a golf club for me by then.

If 2030 is too far out for you, a reminder that you can find our 2020 macro credit view here , and our IG and HY specific views here and here .

 

Back from the future now and what a difference a couple of days can make. Mr Trump has completely taken the momentum out of financial markets this week and the December 15th date will increasingly become a focal point over the next couple of weeks. Last week the mood music suggested that even if a “phase one” deal hadn’t been reached by then, then there was a good chance tariffs planned to be implemented on that date would be postponed. After the stepping up of negative global tariff rhetoric over the last 48 hours, yesterday’s headlines suggesting that the US is going forward with the December 15 tariffs grabbed the limelight, although markets had already been trading weaker prior to that. Fox’s Edward Lawrence said that “trade sources tell me that the Dec 15th tariffs on basically the rest of what China imports into the US are still going forward as of today.” He went on to clarify that the next tranche could still be called off, if a phase one deal gets finalised or “something else positive happens.” For his part, President Trump said that a trade deal is “dependent on whether I want to make it” and “in some ways it is better to wait until after the election…and we’ll see whether the deal is going to be right”.

This might be a late negotiating ploy ahead of a deal but its impossible to tell at the moment and from something that looked like a case of “when not if” a couple of weeks ago now is a case of “if not when.” If that wasn’t enough, Trump also said later on in the day that “those countries that don’t deal with NATO obligations will be dealt with, maybe through trade”. Meanwhile, Wilbur Ross hardly painted a rosier picture, saying that the US has “more ammunition left against China” and also that the US “has a legitimate complaint with Europe over trade.”

The end result for markets were drops of -0.66%, -0.55% and -1.01% for the S&P 500, NASDAQ and DOW but with markets nearly three-quarters of a percent off their early session lows. The trade sensitive semiconductor index was also hit -1.54%, taking it now down -4.04% over the last three sessions, the worst such stretch since August. In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed down -0.93%, taking the two-day loss to -2.20%. Credit also suffered with US HY spreads +11bps while in bond markets we saw yields rally, including a fairly brutal -10.7bps move for 10y Treasuries, which was the most since August 14. The curve also flattened -3.9bps and there are now 20bps of cuts implied between now and next July. In Europe, yields were broadly lower with Bunds -6.8bps and back within a basis point of where they were before the weekend SPD news (more later). In commodities gold (+1.03%) and silver (+1.54%) benefited from the risk off while in currencies it was the Swiss franc (+0.41%) and yen (+0.33%), which also caught a bid at the expense of EM currencies like the South African rand (-0.67%) and the offshore renminbi (-0.35%).

Overnight, the US House of Representatives passed a bill that would impose sanctions on Chinese officials over alleged human rights abuses. However, the House passed an amended version of the Senate bill by adding provisions that require the president to sanction Chinese government officials responsible for the repression of Uighurs and places restrictions on the export of devices that could be used to spy on or restrict the communications or movement of members of the group and other Chinese citizens. Also, among other provisions, the bill requires the president to submit to Congress within 120 days a list of senior Chinese government officials guilty of human rights abuses against Uighurs in Xianjiang or elsewhere in China. Bloomberg further reported that lawmakers are working to resolve differences between the House and Senate bills to agree on one version that can pass swiftly through Congress before the end of the year. In response, China’s foreign ministry urged the US to stop the bill and vowed to further respond if it progresses, without providing any details. The Global Times editor has just tweeted that “US politicians with stakes in China should be careful”.

Overnight, Asian markets are trading lower following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (-1.06%), Hang Seng (-1.08%), Shanghai Comp (-0.31%) and Kospi (-0.69%) all down. The USDCNY fix earlier was the biggest miss to the daily model since August 2nd just after Trump had tweeted about additional tariffs on China. So one to watch as the stakes are raised.

Staying with FX, the Australian dollar is down -0.351% this morning as the Q3 GDP miss raised the probability of a rate cut by the RBA. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.07%. As for overnight data releases, China’s November Caixin services PMI came in at 53.5 (vs. 51.2 expected) thereby bringing the composite PMI to 53.2 (vs. 52.0 last month). So an impressive read but one that will be difficult to get too positive about given the trade news this week. Meanwhile, Japan’s final November services and composite PMI both came in one tenth lower than the initial read at 50.3 and 49.8, respectively.

In other better news on trade, Bloomberg reported that Mexico is considering a US proposal to remove protections for biologic drugs from a renegotiated Nafta trade deal. The proposed change would drop language in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement offering 10 years of market protection for drug makers from cheaper generic spinoffs. It has proved one of the sticking points in getting the deal passed in the US as House Democrats have raised concern that locking in a time frame for pharmaceutical rules could hinder their ability to reduce protections for biologics sooner, as part of an effort to bring down soaring drug prices. Meanwhile, Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal, the Democrat who’s in charge of the negotiations in the House, said it’s “possible” that Democrats would agree to a deal this week and added that he would like the House to vote on the implementing legislation by the end of the year.

Later today, we’ll get the final services and composite PMIs in Europe and the US as well. Expectations are for the euro area services PMI to remain at 51.5 from the flash reading, though there is likely some upside to the composite number (50.3 flash) after the upward revision to the manufacturing index on Monday. On a country level, the readings in France and Germany are expected to stay steady from the flash estimates, while the prints for Spain and Italy are both expected to fall, by -0.8pts and -1.0pts, respectively, from the October results. Later in the day, the US services PMI is expected to stay at 51.6 from the flash reading, while the non-manufacturing ISM is expected to decline -0.2pts from October to 54.5. Our economists will be watching the employment subindex, which is a strong leading indicator for private payrolls growth.

As an update to the SPD developments, ahead of their 3-day conference on Friday a draft text suggested that the party will call for additional public investment and that it should not be prevented by ‘dogmatic positions’ such as ‘black zero’. So the stage is set for them to demand more as a cost of staying in the GroKo. We will see after that who is going to call the other’s bluff within the coalition, though it does bode well that the draft does not explicitly call for an end to the coalition. New SPD chief Walter-Borjans even said “one thing is clear, we do not want to get out of the grand coalition head over heels.” Whatever that means.

Staying with politics, in terms of the latest UK polls 8 days before the election, the two yesterday showed a 12pt and a 9pt lead for the Conservatives – up 1pt and flat relative to the last time these pollsters last published a few days before. The Labour Party has definitely had a little more momentum over the last couple of weeks but poll of polls are only back to where they were at the start of the campaign (around 10pt lead) and have perhaps only narrowed a couple of points from the peak lead. So there will have to be a very late swing or a bad widespread polling sampling error across the industry for the Tory’s not to win a majority. Labour’s last hope is probably a last minute collapse of the LibDem vote. Throughout the campaign the support for the Tories has been impressively stable at between 40-45% so it doesn’t feel like this is going to fall away now. Labour will need to get closer to this from elsewhere and likely hope for a hung parliament. At this point even if they are well behind the Tories they are likely to be the only party able to form a coalition.

Finally, there wasn’t much to report from the data yesterday. In the US, November vehicle sales came in quite strong at 17.09mn (vs. 16.90mn expected). Meanwhile in Europe PPI printed at +0.1% mom for October (vs. 0.0% expected) while the November construction PMI for the UK was a little better than expected (45.3 vs. 44.5 expected) – albeit still at very low levels.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning the focus will be on the final November PMI revisions (services and composite) in Europe while this afternoon we’ll also get that data for the US, along with the November ISM non-manufacturing and November ADP employment report. Away from that, we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Visco, Makhlouf and Hernandez de Cos while the Fed’s Quarles is due to speak on supervision and regulation.

*** The answer to the final number in the sequence is 3.5%. Yes, after a decade of expecting large double digit returns in the S&P 500 in his year ahead outlooks, our US equity strategist Binky Chadha is ‘only’ expecting 3.5% return from the S&P 500 out to the end of 2020 from current levels. It’s actually 0% for 2020 as a whole as his YE 2019 and 2020 forecasts are the same. So this is a major relative change in view, considering we’ve all marvelled at the bullishness (proved correct) of his previous numbers. For an explanation of why please see the link here ***

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 POINTS OR 0.23%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 328.74 POINTS OR 1.25%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 244.58 POINTS OR 1.05%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0525 /Oil UP TO 56.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0525 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0527 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan

My goodness, something is up…Japan’s largest pension fund will now stop lending shares to short sellers as they believe we are on the cusp of a market crash

(zerohedge)

World’s Biggest Pension Fund Stops Lending Shares To Short-Sellers Amid Threat Of Market Crash

Ahead of the next market crash, Japan’s public pension fund, one of the largest pension funds in the world, has developed a new market tool where it will no longer allow shares of its $733 billion global equity portfolio to be loaned out for short selling, reported the Financial Times.

The announcement by Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), comes at a time when the global economy is quickly decelerating into year-end, could see a significant repricing event where global equities correct into 1H20.

To get ahead of the downturn, about $370 billion of its $733 billion global equity portfolio will no longer be loaned out. It could be used as a weapon to combat evil short-sellers when the market plunges. If other pension funds follow GPIF’s lead, which they likely will, this could be a highly disruptive market tool to stem downside and also create the mother of all short squeezes.

 

The reasoning behind GPIF’s move to discontinue lending of at least half of its global equity book isn’t because it’s “concerned that lending stocks out stopped it exercising proper stewardship over the underlying investments. This included a lack of transparency over the final borrower and how it was using GPIF shares,” as FT notes, but rather it’s an unorthodox market tool that was similarly used by the Chinese government to stem further downside in a 2015 stock market crash.

GPIF will lose nearly $300 million in fees per year from discontinuing its lending of shares from the foreign segment of its portfolio, FT noted.

Traders in Tokyo told FT that other pension funds will likely follow suit. Though they said, the move to stop lending shares to short-sellers wouldn’t have an immediate impact on market fundamentals, though it could prove useful to limit the downside during the next market crash.

And it already seems like Elon Musk is already a big fan of GPIF’s market tool:

 

Tony Tassell

@TonyTassell

The world’s biggest pension fund has struck a blow against short-sellers with Japanese giant GPIF halting stock lending from its equity portfolio – @Urbandirt and @naumanbilly https://www.ft.com/content/8d61bd14-1593-11ea-9ee4-11f260415385 

World’s biggest pension fund strikes blow against short-sellers

Japanese giant GPIF halts stock lending from its equity portfolio

ft.com

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

Bravo, right thing to do! Short selling should be illegal.

end

 

3 C CHINA

China vows a major response after the USA house votes to sanction Chinese officials over Uighur abuse. And we are close to a trade deal  (just kidding)

(zerohedge)

China Vows Response After US House Votes To Sanction Chinese Officials Over Uighur Abuse;

Update: China wasted no time to issue a harshly worded response to the passage of the Uighur bill, and in a statement published moments ago by the Chinese foreign ministry, said that whereas “the US plan to use the Xinjiang-related issue to sow Chinese ethnic relations, undermine Xinjiang’s prosperity and stability, and curb China’s development”, this is “absolutely impossible” and Beijing urges the US to “immediately correct its mistakes, prevent the aforementioned Xinjiang-related bill from becoming law, and stop using the Xinjiang-related issue to interfere in China’s internal affairs.”

The statement ends ominously, saying that “China will respond further according to the development of the situation.”

In other words, even more words, and no actions, suggesting that at this point, Xi may have capitulated and is scared of actually doing something instead of just speaking.

Full statement below from the foreign ministry:

 

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Remarks on the U.S. House of Representatives Passing the “Uyghur Human Rights Policy Bill 2019”

The U.S. House of Representatives has just passed the so-called “Uyghur Human Rights Policy Bill 2019.” The case deliberately discredited the human rights situation in Xinjiang, arrogantly discredited China’s efforts to radicalize and combat terrorism, maliciously attacked the Chinese government’s territorial policies, seriously violated international law and basic principles of international relations, and seriously interfered in China’s internal affairs. China expresses its strong indignation and resolute opposition.

Xinjiang-related issues are not at all human rights, ethnic, and religious issues, but anti-terrorist and anti-secession issues. Xinjiang has suffered from extremist and violent terrorist activities. Facing the grim situation, the Xinjiang Autonomous Region Government has cracked down on violent terrorist activities in accordance with the law, and at the same time attaches great importance to source governance, including actively promoting depolarization, and continuously promoting economic development, national unity, and social harmony and stability. These measures have ensured that no terrorist attacks have occurred in Xinjiang in the past three years, received universal support from 25 million people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang, and made positive contributions to the global cause of counter-terrorism.

The international community has generally positively evaluated the Chinese government’s policy of governing Xinjiang. Since the end of 2018, more than a thousand people from more than 70 national and regional officials, international organizations, news media, religious groups, experts and scholars have visited Xinjiang, and they have praised Xinjiang’s experience in counter-terrorism and depolarization work. In March this year, the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Islamic Cooperation Organization passed a resolution praising China’s efforts in caring for the Muslim masses. In July, the permanent representatives of more than 50 countries in Geneva sent a joint letter to the chairman of the United Nations Human Rights Council and the High Commissioner for Human Rights to positively evaluate China’s respect and protection of human rights in its counter-terrorism and depolarization efforts. In October, more than 60 countries spoke enthusiastically during the 74th Session of the Third Committee of the General Assembly, praising China’s huge human rights progress in Xinjiang. All these strongly prove that the US side’s article on Xinjiang-related issues is totally contrary to the facts and completely contrary to the mainstream public opinion in the international community.

We must tell the US side that Xinjiang affairs are purely China’s internal affairs and that no foreign interference is allowed. The above-mentioned bill on the US side deliberately smears China’s counter-terrorism and de-extremization measures, which will only further expose its double standards on counter-terrorism, and will only let the Chinese people further understand its hypocrisy and sinister intentions.

The Chinese government and people are unwavering in their determination to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests. The US plan to use the Xinjiang-related issue to sow Chinese ethnic relations, undermine Xinjiang’s prosperity and stability, and curb China’s development is absolutely impossible. We urge the US to immediately correct its mistakes, prevent the aforementioned Xinjiang-related bill from becoming law, and stop using the Xinjiang-related issue to interfere in China’s internal affairs. China will respond further according to the development of the situation.

* * *

In the past few days, China’s Global Times twitter troll Hu Xijin has been quite vocal not only about China’s anger over the recent passage of the pro-HK bill that was signed by Trump last Thursday, but also about China’s response to what he said was the imminent passage of a Xinjian-related bill, which would sanction Chinese officials responsible for the repression of over a million Muslim Uighurs in the Xinjiang region.

Overnight, Hu issued his latest not so veiled threat on the matter saying that “since US Congress plans to pass Xinjiang-related bill, China is considering to impose visa restrictions on US officials and lawmakers who’ve had odious performance on Xinjiang issue;it might also ban all US diplomatic passport holders from entering Xinjiang.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Based on what I know, since US Congress plans to pass Xinjiang-related bill, China is considering to impose visa restrictions on US officials and lawmakers who’ve had odious performance on Xinjiang issue;it might also ban all US diplomatic passport holders from entering Xinjiang.

Yesterday, Hu retweeted a post by The Business Source division of the Global Times, which warned that China would release an “unreliable entity list” soon, which includes relevant US entities, in response to the passage of the Xinjiang-related bill “that will harm Chinese firms’ interests, prompting China to speed up the move.”

The Business Source@GlobalTimesBiz

Source told Global Times that China will release an “unreliable entity list” soon, which includes relevant US entities. US House is expected to pass a Xinjiang-related bill that will harm Chinese firms’ interests, prompting China to speed up the move.

His comments came just days after one or more Chinese dissidents leaked the troubling secrets of China’s Xinjiang camps to the foreign media, which prompted the following retort from Hu: “China wants real human rights in Xinjiang: people’s rights to have a peaceful life. West’s hypocrisy won’t affect Xinjiang internally, nor will it influence Muslim countries’ attitude. It’s just a few media outlets and politicians pretending to be representing the world.Pathetic.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

China wants real human rights in Xinjiang: people’s rights to have a peaceful life. West’s hypocrisy won’t affect Xinjiang internally, nor will it influence Muslim countries’ attitude. It’s just a few media outlets and politicians pretending to be representing the world.Pathetic. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1199007353997316107 

Reuters

@Reuters

More secrets of China’s Xinjiang camps leaked to foreign media https://reut.rs/2QP550g

Well, moments ago the U.S. House of Representatives indeed overwhelmingly approved legislation that would impose sanctions on Chinese officials over human rights abuses against Muslim minorities, provoking Beijing to retaliate just as trade deal negotiations between the two sides appear to be on the verge of collapse.

The bill is an amended version of the Senate’s S. 178 to support the Uighurs, a Muslim ethnic group in western China, and it passed Tuesday, on a vote of 407 to 1. Chinese state media warned before the vote that the government could release a list of “unreliable entities” that could lead to sanctions against U.S. companies. The measure follows legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters signed into law last week by President Donald Trump.

And now, with Xi Jinping having already lost serious credibility after he failed to forcefully respond to Trump’s signing of the Hong Kong bill, all eyes will be on China, and whether it will indeed trigger visa restrictions and limit travel for US officials to Xinjiang province (something which will never happen) and, more importantly, if Beijing will finally publish its “unreliable entity”, aka black list, which it has been threatening to do since May and which may include such names as Apple and Micron. Well, now that the House has passed the Uighur bill, Beijing may no longer be able to delay, or else it will be seen as a pushover every time a diplomatic – or other – challenge escalates. Needless to say, for a president for life such as Xi Jinping, that is hardly an option, so stay tuned for China’s response which may be due any moment.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The pound hits a 7 month high as traders are betting of a big Tory victory

(zerohedge)

“The Election Is Boris Johnson’s To Lose” – Pound Hits 7-Month High As Traders Bet On Tory Victory

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is riding high on Wednesday following a meeting with President Trump, one of his closest political allies.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Enjoyed my meeting with Prime Minister @BorisJohnson of the United Kingdom at @10DowningStreet last night. Talked about numerous subjects including @NATO and Trade.

With UK election polls showing the Tories with a sizable lead over Labour, an analyst at UBS quipped that the UK snap election is now “Boris Johnson’s to lose,” according to the FT.

Though many of Johnson’s political opponents have spent the last couple of weeks complaining about the corrupting influence of ‘YouGov’, which many claim is biased in favor of the Tories, it appears that the Conservatives’ lead is being reflected across polling companies.

A YouGov poll released last night showed both the Tories and Labour down one point at 42% and 33%, though it wasn’t the only poll to show a sizable conservative lead.

Freddie Scovell Esq.@FreddieScovell

Not just me old fruit…
Current Tory Lead by Pollster:

Opinium: +15
DeltaPoll: +13
Kantar: +11
Survation: +11
ComRes: +10
YouGov: +9
Panelbase: +8
ICM: +7
BMG: +6

Polls from 23rd November or later only.

These numbers drove cable to its highest level since May, with Neil Jones, the head of FX sales at Mizuho Bank, attributing the move to traders’ cutting back their sterling short positions and hedges as a Tory victory looks increasingly likely.

In a continuation of its gains from Tuesday’s session, the pound broke above $1.30 Wednesday morning.

According to Bloomberg and the FTinvestors see a decisive conservative majority as the best possible outcome for the snap vote on Dec. 12 because it would enable Johnson to push his Brexit deal through Parliament before the January deadline, allowing the UK to finally begin is split from the EU. To be sure, after the deadline, the negotiations over the substance of a future UK-EU trading relationship will begin, which is where some see problems. Many analysts suspect that Johnson’s pledge not to extend the Brexit transition period beyond the end of next year has already set up the UK for another round of gridlock and last-minute extensions.

end

UK

UK’s largest property fund suddenly halts redemptions because they cannot sell properties fast enough

(zerohedge)

“Don’t Panic”: CRE Crisis Hits The UK As Largest Property Fund Suddenly Halts Redemptions

Earlier this week, ECB vice president Luis De Guindos, speaking in an interview with El Mundo, offered a surprisingly candid take on how the ECB is distorting capital market, saying that while “we can still increase bond purchases or lower interest rates further, which means that we still have the same tools available” he added that “what is happening is that the secondary effects are becoming more tangible.”

Specifically, De Guindos said he is “worried by risk taking in the asset management sector against the background of low interest rates.” According to the ECB VP, the risk is that “supervision in this sector is not comparable with that in the banking sector. There is a risk. If they are asked for units to be paid out they have to do so within two or three days. I see a potential risk of liquidity imbalance. That is what worries me the most at the moment.”

De Guindos’ warning was spot on, because just a few hours earlier, UK fund manager M&G announced it had suspended redemptions and trading in its £2.5 billion Property Portfolio, which is marketed to retail investors, after it was unable to sell properties fast enough, particularly given its concentration on the retail sector, to meet the demands of investors, and was facing “unusually high and sustained outflows” it blamed on Brexit and the retail downturn.

As the FT reported, the M&G fund was the first major open-ended property fund to halt redemptions in this way since the crisis in the sector that caused seven funds to “gate” in 2016 following the Brexit referendum — which we profiled three years ago as one of the most high-profile market consequences of the vote to leave the EU.

First, a little history: first it was the shocking junk bond fiasco at Third Avenue which led to a premature end for the asset manager, then the three largest UK property funds suddenly froze over $12 billion in assets in the aftermath of the Brexit vote; two years later the Swiss multi-billion fund manager GAM blocked redemptions, followed by iconic UK investor Neil Woodford also suddenly gating investors despite representations of solid returns and liquid assets, then it was the ill-named, Nataxis-owned H20 Asset Management decided to freeze redemptions; finally Arrowgrass joined the list when it wrote down the value of an illiquid investment (the Dramland amusement park) by a whopping 70% overnight.

By this point, a pattern had emerged, one which Bank of England Governor Mark Carney described best when he said that investment funds that promise to allow customers to withdraw their money on a daily basis are “built on a lie.” At roughly the same time, the chief investment officer of Europe’s biggest independent asset manager agreed with him, because while for much of 2019 the biggest risk bogeymen were corporate credit, leveraged loans, and trillions in negative yielding debt, gradually consensus emerged that investment funds themselves – and specifically their illiquid investments- gradually emerged as the basis for the next financial crisis.

“There is no point denying we are faced with a looming liquidity mismatch problem,” said Pascal Blanque, who oversees more than 1.4 trillion euros ($1.6 trillion) as the CIO of Amundi SA, adding that the prospect of melting liquidity is one of “various things keeping me awake at night.”

* * *

Fast forward to today, when in what may be the first harbinger of a UK commercial real estate crisis, M&G, a London-listed asset managersaid it has been unable to sell properties fast enough, particularly given its concentration on the retail sector, to meet the demands of investors who wanted to cash out. The investor “run” led the fund to suspend any redemption requests in its £2.5 billion ($3.2 billion) Property Portfolio arriving after midday on Wednesday.

“In recent months, unusually high and sustained outflows from the M&G Property Portfolio have coincided with a period where continued Brexit-related political uncertainty and ongoing structural shifts in the UK retail sector have made it difficult for us to sell commercial property,” M&G said in a statement.

“Given these circumstances, we have now reached a point where M&G believes it will best protect the interests of the Funds’ customers by applying a temporary suspension in dealing.

In addition to Brexit worries, M&G’s fund has been hit by its large holdings in retail property, a sector hit by retailer failures and value drops. According to the FT, the fund – which shrunk by £1.1 billion so far this year – holds 37.5% of its portfolio in retail warehouses, shopping centres, designer outlets and standard retail, based on its latest fact sheet, plus another 2.5% in supermarkets, a more stable part of the sector. The same fund was suspended in July 2016 for four months following the UK’s EU referendum when money flooded out of such funds.

Shares in the company dropped 2.6 per cent to 227.8p following the news, while the value of the property portfolio fund tumbled to the lowest level in 6 years.

Investors in the fund range from armchair, retail investors to institutional investors, dealing with millions of pounds according to the BBC. The fund waived 30% of its annual charge to investors, as they were unable to access their money, although some have called for action from the regulator on such charges.

The decision to suspend the fund, and its feeder fund, was taken by its official monitor – its authorised corporate director – and the City watchdog has been informed.

“The FCA is working closely with the firms involved to ensure that timely actions are undertaken in the best interests of all the fund’s investors,” a spokesman for the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said.

M&G said the suspension would be monitored daily, formally reviewed every 28 days, and would only continue “as long as it is in the best interests of our customers”. This will allow assets to be sold over time, rather than as a fire sale, in order to meet investors’ withdrawal demands. The firm has written to investors to explain the current situation.

UK investors had been shaken in recent months by the demise of previously lauded fund manager Neil Woodford. Woodford Investment Management is in the process of shuttering after Woodford, one of the UK’s most iconic investors, was fired from its flagship fund in October. The case raised questions regarding the oversight of funds which invest in assets that take a long time to sell, but from which investors can withdraw their money from at any time.

The M&G case will make the case stronger for regulators to take a tougher stance on these types of investments.

Meanwhile, investors in the UK have been pulling their money out of other large so-called open-ended property funds, and the FCA has recently introduced daily monitoring of property funds. Yet financial planners have mixed views on whether the M&G suspension could be matched by other funds in the sector.

“Property is a long-term investment and we urge investors not to panic,” said Patrick Connolly of financial advisers Chase de Vere; of course the only word that investors would hear in that sentence is “panic” and there will be a flood of redemptions across the entire investing universe, potentially starting a domino-like freeze up of property funds, similar to that seen in 2016 in the days following Brexit.

“While the M&G fund is suspended, most other providers have far greater liquidity, and less exposure to retail properties, and so are better placed to meet redemptions, as long as there isn’t a mad rush to the exit door.

“Property still remains an asset class which can play an important role in investment portfolios and, when we have some real clarity on Brexit, the prospects for this asset class will hopefully improve.”

However, Ryan Hughes, from AJ Bell, said investors would review their interest in other funds which could lead to “a rush for the exits”. “We could see a wave of suspensions now – several that offer daily redemptions are at risk,” he said.

* * *

Ryan, is of course, right and whether he knows it or not he just described what we previously called a $1.6 trillion ticking time bomb in the market. While we previously discussed “The $1.6 Trillion Ticking Time Bomb In The Market, the M&G fiasco is merely the latest example of how pervasive investment in hard-to-mark illqiuid assets have become in Europe where money managers from Neil Woodford to H2O Asset Management have come under fire from politicians, regulators and investors. But really it’s the central bankers’ fault: having injected trillions in the market to crush yields and push investors into the riskiest assets, investment firms have had no choice but to venture into harder-to-sell assets such as real estate in a search for yield.

Incidentally, for those wondering if liquidity remains an illusion – a test that can only be confirmed when there is a crash and the market is indefinitely halted, an outcome that is now virtually inevitable – Deutsche Bank has a simple test: it all has to do with the sequence of events unleashed by widening spreads, where redemptions and first movers rush to sell, collapsing the market’s liquidity, freezing refinancings, and resulting in a surge in defaults and firesales, which in turn leads to even wider spreads and so on, until central banks have to step in to short circuit this toxic loop.

This also explains why GAM, Woodford, H20, Arrowgrass and many more funds (in the near future), will be similarly gated once their investors discover there is no liquidity to sell into and the only “real time” liquidity is offered to those who have a “first seller mover advantage”, to wit:

 

  • If investors anticipate severe losses on the fund’s investments, they could be incentivised to “run for the exit” to be the first to redeem their shares.
  • The first-mover advantage in open-ended funds arises because losses on asset sales to meet redemptions are incurred by investors which remain in the fund.
  • As in a ‘bank run’, the asset manager is, in principle, forced to sell assets in a fire sale in order to meet its short-dated liabilities

This dramatic imbalance of asset holdings at market making banks and buyside “bagholders” of illiquid securities, is now posing a major problem for regulators, something the Bank of England acknowledged in a working paper published earlier this month, and highlighted by Mark Gilbert, to wit: “as the funds industry has supplanted banks as a source of credit in the past decade, households and companies have benefited from a useful alternative source of financing. But, the report warned, we don’t know how this market-based system will respond under stress.”

Modelling such a scenario “can generate an adverse feedback loop in which lower asset prices cause solvency/liquidity constraints to bind, pushing asset prices lower still,” the BOE found. In other words, the new market structure may be worse than the old.

The feedback loop discussed by the BOE is the one we showed in the chart above.

And, as recent notable fund “gates” and/or collapses have shown, the difficulty for asset managers in such an eventuality is finding sufficient cash to repay exiting investors while preserving the structure of the portfolio without distorting market prices, according to Amundi’s Blanque.

According to Bloomberg, part of Amundi’s response to this seemingly intractable issue is to include liquidity buffers in its portfolios, which may mean holding securities such as German bunds and U.S. Treasuries, which should always trade freely. But the industry needs to come up with a common definition so that liquidity is included along with risk and return when assessing a portfolio’s robustness, Blanque says. Additionally, this band aid only works for modest redemptions. A wholesale liquidation would crush even the most “buffered” up fund.

For now, asset managers have to cope with what Blanque called “the sacred cow” – although a better phrase would be “constant risk” of allowing clients to withdraw funds on a daily basis.

“It is a bomb, given the risks of liquidity mismatch,” he warns. “We don’t know if what is sellable today will be sellable in six months’ time.”

That’s not the only we don’t know. As Blanque concluded, “we don’t know the channels of transmission, we don’t know how the actors will act. It is uncharted territory.”

And that, precisely, is why central banks can never again allow risk asset prices to drop: the alternative means gating not one, or two, or a hundred funds, but halting the entire market, because once everyone start selling and price discovery finally returns to a market that has been dominated by central banks for the past decade, several generations of traders and investors who have grown up without price discovery will be shocked to discover just where “fair” market prices reside.

end
FRANCE
France is rebelling as Macron wants to redo the pension system.  France allows metro drivers the right for an early pension as early as 50 yrs.  Also their retirement benefit is the equivalentof $4100 per month..higher than any country in Europe.  France has powerful unions and you do not want to mess around with these guys.
(zerohedge)

Western France Runs Out Of Gas As “Massive Strikes” Set To Paralyze Entire Nation

France is bracing for major transportation disruptions throughout the country starting Thursday, as trade unions launch a strike in response to changes President Emmanuel Macron wants to make to the country’s retirement system, while port blockades have resulted in widespread fuel shortages across the country. Much of the Paris Metro will be shut down, as will many national and international train lines, including certain Eurostar services. Flights will also be canceled, as air traffic controllers say they will join the protests through Saturday.

Hundreds of filling stations around western France have run out of gasoline and diesel as blockades of oil refineries enter their second week according to industry group UFIP. According to The Local, construction workers have been blockading refineries in Brittany since last week and a blockade at La Rochelle has resumed.

French media reported on Tuesday morning that 390 filling stations have no fuel at all, and another 389 have limited supplies. The areas affected include Brittany, the west of France, the south east coast area around Marseille and some parts of eastern France near the Swiss border.

For an interactive map of which filling stations are affected, click here.

 

Source: thelocal.fr

Workers are staging blockages at depots in Brest, Lorient, Le Mans and Vern-sur-Seiche. Further south, in the region of La Rochelle, another blockade was cleared at 4.30pm on Friday, but resumed at midnight on Monday. The blockaders belong to the public construction group BTP, Bâtiments et Travaux Publics (“Buildings and Public Construction”). They are protesting a fuel tax hike planned for 2020, which they say will have a negative financial impact on their companies. Until now, the so-called gazole non routier (GNR), used mainly by construction workers and farmers, is subject to a tax benefit that is planned to be phased out in 2020.

According to the workers this will increase their fuel prices by 45%, adding an hourly cost of about €10 for an average mechanical excavator, which they fear will hurt especially the smaller construction businesses.

The government suspended the fuel tax hike last December to appease the “yellow vest” protesters, whose main demands included abolishing the fuel tax.

In a separate dispute about a different type of fuel tax, truck drivers from the group Organisation des Transporteurs Routiers Européens will also be staging protests including rolling road blocks across France from Saturday, December 7th onwards. The French truck drivers are angry about a two cent increase in diesel tax and say their protest will start on Saturday, and could go on for an unspecified number of days.

The group’s press release says that: “Tired of not feeling defended and heard, road transport companies will express in the street the legitimate anger of the profession.” The protests will be “from December 7th and the following days”.

The strike action could also lead to some disruption on the roads as one of the hauliers unions is involved and ‘yellow vest’ protesters have said they will be staging a day of action. Nothing has been specified yet, but in the past motorway toll booths have been a frequent target for ‘yellow vest’ demonstrations.

Their protest is not linked to the unlimited strikes that are hitting France from December 5th – those are over plans to reform the pension system – but will coincide with what is expected to be a very difficult weekend for transport as rail employees, Metro drivers, bus drivers, airline ground crew and air traffic controllers all walk out.

The last time the French government seriously tried to overhaul its pension system, in 1995, protests also paralyzed the country for more than three weeks and forced then-President Jacques Chirac to back down and accept a stinging political defeat. And although French transport unions largely steered clear of the yellow vest demonstrations over the past year, they are expressing the same anger that certain segments of the population have been abandoned by their leaders.

Adding to the chaos, yellow vest protesters could join these demonstrations. Teachers unions, postal workers, hospital workers and the police may also support the strikes.

“It’s the coalition of all frustrations, and it demonstrates the isolation of the elite, the isolation of the president, even the personal rejection of Macron,” said Dominique Moïsi, a French political scientist and the author of a recent book on emotions in politics.

“There is a deep sense of injustice right now, that inequalities have exploded, that the state is much less protective than it was of the weak, and much more protective of the strong,” Moïsi said.

France uses forty-two different retirement schemes and under some of those schemes, such as those for train drivers and Paris Metro operators, certain employees can still retire as early as age 50 or 52. Paris Metro drivers are entitled to monthly pensions as high as $4,100, according to a government report in July. Many private-sector employees, by contrast, can retire only at 62, and the average government pension ranges from $1,400 to $1,600 a month. As we showed recently, France is the “winner” among all nations in the expected number of years a worker can expect to live in retirement.

Alas, such a generous arrangement is no longer sustainable, which is why Macron’s idea is to create a universal points-based system that would calculate pensions in the same way for everyone, regardless of their profession.

This has angered the powerful French labor unions, which have called for Thursday’s protest and who insist that Macron’s new calculation would harm lower-income workers and those who have been temporarily employed.

 

However, the resistance is not just about retirement income.

Laurent Berger, the head of the French Democratic Confederation of Labor, one of the country’s major unions, couched his movement’s actions in general terms in a recent interview with France’s LCI television. “The government is in the process of losing everyone,” he said. “It’s lost everyone.”

According to an Ifop poll published Sunday by France’s Journal du Dimanche newspaper, 76 percent of the French are in favor of overhauling the retirement system. But 46 percent of those polled also expressed a positive view of those who plan to demonstrate.

Meanwhile, as the WaPo notes, it remains unclear how long the transport workers strike will last. Eurostar has said that because of expected disruptions, it will run a reduced timetable of its high-speed-train service at least through Dec. 10.

Union organizers have vowed to continue until the government responds sufficiently to their concerns. But the coming Christmas holidays may deflate the crowds they draw.

Some observers have noted that the tense atmosphere in France is the same kind of discontent with democratic systems that is on view across the West, but manifested in a French style. “In Great Britain, when you are dissatisfied, you get a new election, and we are about to see the third one” in four years, Moïsi said. “In France, when you get dissatisfied, you take to the streets. And you have the symbol of the barricade.”

“You don’t use the ballot box but the stone, which you are going to throw at the symbol of authority.”

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

This is rather dangerous..Turkey asserts ownership of all gas rights inside Cypriot waters and a major part of Greek waters. Israel will have to defend Cyprus.

(zerohedge)

Turkey Declares Ownership On Half Of Eastern Mediterranean Waters

A Turkish diplomat has revealed a map which delineates waters in the Mediterranean claimed by Turkey, amid an ongoing months-long standoff with Cyprus and Greece over Turkish oil and gas exploration and drilling inside Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

“After signing deals with its own puppet state in occupied northern Cyprus and with the pseudo-government in Libya’s Tripoli, Turkey declares that it owns half of the eastern Mediterranean,” Aron Lund, an analyst at The Century Foundation, observes of the newly published map.

New map outlining Turkey’s claimed continental shelf and the borders of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), via Hurriyet Daily. Meanwhile the entire eastern side of Cyprus is claimed by the internationally disputed “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.”

 

And Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily explains: “With the chart, Çağatay Erciyes showed the outer boundaries of Turkey’s continental shelf and EEZ, designated in a 2011 agreement between Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), the median line between Egypt and Turkey’s mainlands and a recent memorandum with Libya.”

Over the past year Turkey has sent both oil and gas exploration ships, as well as military transport vessels, into Cypriot waters in the East Mediterranean related to expanded claims based on the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus (since 1974), earning the condemnation of both Nicosia and top EU officials, who have defended EU-Cyprus’ interpretation of the conflict.

 

Turkey claims western waters off Cyprus, with the so-called TRNC eastern waters; and now Erdogan is cutting deals with Libya to expand from the southern Mediterranean.

In nearby Libya, as Turkish military advisers continue to play a key role in support of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) against an offensive led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), Turkey is also busy expanding maritime defensive operations off North Africa.

“On Nov. 27, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held a closed meeting in Istanbul that lasted over two hours with Fayez al-Sarraj, chairman of the Presidential Council of Libya,” Hurriyet Daily reports further.

In that meeting the two leaders reportedly struck a deal which is seen as key to expanding Turkey’s maritime claims:

Stressing that Turkey has the longest continental coast line in the eastern Mediterranean, [Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman] Aksoy said: “The islands which lie on the opposite side of the median line between two mainlands cannot create maritime jurisdiction areas beyond their territorial waters and that the length and direction of the coasts should be taken into account in delineating maritime jurisdiction areas.”

This follows boiling tensions since the early summer after Turkey laid claim to waters extending a whopping 200 miles from its coast, brazenly asserting ownership over a swathe of the Mediterranean that even cuts into Greece’s exclusive economic zone.

 

Aron Lund@aronlund

After signing deals with its own puppet state in occupied northern Cyprus and with the pseudo-government in Libya’s Tripoli, Turkey declares that it owns half of the eastern Mediterranean. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/map-delineates-turkeys-maritime-frontiers-in-med-sea-149379 

View image on Twitter

So far Ankara has responded to threats of EU sanctions by reaffirming its rights to waters of all parts of Cyprus’ coast.

Should the Turkish military attempt to enforce its drilling claims and run up against Cypriot and Greek vessels, it could spark a deadly encounter which would force the EU and reluctant NATO to finally weigh in more forcefully.

end
Syria
The Syrian pound was battered this week reaching a low of 950 pounds per dollar.  This war torn nation is paying the price for sponsoring terrorism
(Al-Masdar News)

Syria’s War-Battered Currency Hits All-Time Low Amid Broader Mideast Banking Crisis

Via Al-Masdar News,

The Syrian Pound (also lira) has significantly improved over the last 24 hours after reaching an all-time low, Al-Watan newspaper reported on Wednesday morning. Earlier this week it hit an all-time exchange low of 950 SYP for every $1 (in the years leading up to the start of war in 2011, it stood steady at about 50 SYP for $1).

According to Al-Watan, the Syrian Pound improved by more than 15 percent on Wednesday, reaching 850 SYP for every $1 (USD).

 

Image via AFP/VOA 

Local markets yesterday witnessed a severe recession, so that a large number of economic and commercial activities and shops closed until the direction of the exchange rate was clear.

Panicky Syrians rushed to buy dollars on Monday, causing the Syrian pound’s value to plunge to record lows, two dealers and a banker said.

The pound, worth 47 to the dollar just before Syria’s civil war broke out nearly nine years ago, plunged to 950 pounds to the dollar, weakening it by another 25% in the past few days. It fluctuated around 765 pounds to the dollar last week.

The pound’s fall has accelerated since mid-October, when Lebanon’s economic crisis worsened amid a wave of anti-government protests. — Reuters

The Board of Directors for the Damascus Chamber of Commerce Mohammed Hallak said that the instability of legislation is reflected in the instability of the exchange rate, explaining in a statement to Al-Watan that stability is leading to the survival of the production process as it is, stressing that what is required today is real partnership between business and government in order to raise confidence.

He added: “We have to be objective, any trader or industrial consumer of goods in his home, which confirms that the reflection of the depreciation of the exchange rate is negative by all standards because any industrial or trader has workers and employees to contribute to the productive process.”

Earlier this week, the Syrian Pound hit an all-time exchange low when it hit 950 SYP for every $1 (USD).

 

6.Global Issues

This will not be good for Canadian PM Trudeau, French President Macron and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson..all caught laughing at Trump with a hot Mic

(zerohedge)

Trudeau, Macron And BoJo Caught On Hot Mic Laughing At Trump

In an edited clip released by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson were all caught on a hot mic appearing to ridicule President Trump after a day of rambling press conferences that took world leaders off guard.

At the beginning of the clip, Johnson can be heard inquiring about why Macron was late to a meeting earlier that day, when Trudeau butts in, exclaiming that Macron had to factor in a 40-minute diversion apparently caused by Trump.

Joyce Karam

@Joyce_Karam

If you ever wondered what world leaders chat about in private, well here at NATO they’re gossiping about .

Leaked Video shows Canada’s Trudeau (with a 🍺), France’s Macron, UK’s Johnson making fun of Trump’s long pressers and his staff reactions:

Embedded video

The world leaders were joined by Princess Anne, the Queen’s daughter, who naturally was invited to the Buckingham Palace reception where the footage was taken.Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also appears to be in the scrum. At one point, Rutte can be heard laughing while saying “fake news media”.

Though Trump’s name isn’t heard spoken, the subject of their gossipy little pow-wow is pretty clear. At one point, Trudeau can be heard telling his pals about how a certain leader’s team members’ jaws dropped when he launched into a rambling tangent during a press conference.

A loosened up Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, seen sipping from a glass of beer, could barely contain himself, gesturing wildly and shouting “You just watched his team’s jaws drop to the floor!”

It’s likely that Trudeau is referring to his joint press conference with President Trump, where the president veered wildly off-topic and answered questions about the burgeoning impeachment inquiry while lashing out at his democratic rivals.

Mike Le Couteur

@mikelecouteur

PM @JustinTrudeau while @realDonaldTrump is asked about the impeachment hearings/story

Embedded video

However, Trump participated in several press conferences yesterday, not only with Nato General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, but also with Boris Johnson, Trudeau, and a memorably tense news conference with Macron.

 

Regardless, CNN was all over the hot mic clip, pushing it as evidence that the US hasn’t regained its status in the world.

Jim Sciutto

@jimsciutto

And it of course belies Trump’s frequent claim that he has made the US respected again https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1202047174793682944 

ian bremmer

@ianbremmer

This happens at every NATO summit with Trump. Every G7. Every G20. The US President is mocked by US allies behind his back.

Embedded video

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, leaders wrapped up the two-day summit with a draft communique that made on thing clear: The rest of Nato wants to keep Trump happy, and is much more concerned about what Trump wants than what the president of France wants right now, BBG reports.

The draft showed that leaders made “burden sharing” – Trump’s top priority re: Nato – the centerpiece of the communique.

end
Yesterday and today’s major events through the eyes of Michael Every
(Michael Every)

You Better Not Short; You Better Not Try; Larry Kudlow, Please Tell Them All Why

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

The NATO summit saw the expected shenanigans with: Turkey’s President Erdogan stating it will oppose defense of the Baltic region if NATO doesn’t support it in its fight against the Kurds; France’s Macron refusing to do so; and US President Trump and Macron having a public spat, and then uniting in a clash over Turkey and the Kurds and its Russian S-400 missile system, with the word “sanctions” being mentioned by the US president again. Trump also suggested that countries who don’t pay up the 2% of GDP for defence might be dealt with via the trade channel, further politicizing trade as an issue, if it wasn’t already. Markets didn’t pay any attention.

That was because they were too busy being rocked when President Trump stated he is in no rush and “in some ways I think it’s better to wait until after the election” to make a trade deal with China. Not September, as we were told by those ‘in the know’ at certain financial media; not October, as were again told; not November, as we were still told; and not December, and perhaps not early 2020 – but after the US presidential election….which might as well be forever for markets. Especially as Trump will not have any electoral concerns at that point so might just dump the whole idea and go ‘all-in’. Indeed, Commerce Secretary Ross also made clear if “substantial progress” isn’t seen soon then the final 15% tariff tranche is indeed going to happen on 15 December.

The market reaction was clear: US 10-year yields plunged from 1.84% intraday to 1.72%, presumably because of all the inflation now coming from the tariffs, and 2-year yields from 1.62% to 1.55%; the S&P dipped; and CNH went from under 7.04 to over 7.08 and is at 7.0726 at time of writing. Perhaps it will go lower again when people read headlines on Bloomberg like “China Stockpiles Foreign Tech as ‘Silicon Curtain’ Descends”.

If not, it certainly should do given the US House of Representatives just passed legislation 407-1 to impose sanctions on Chinese officials responsible for alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and to prevent the sale of technology to China that can be used in such repression. The Senate measure has already passed, but the House has added provisions that require the president within 120 days to list all officials deemed responsible and to impose visa restrictions and Global Magnitsky Act sanctions; the bill also ties US policy to China to Xinjiang via an annual State Department report to Congress on the issue. As with the recent HKHRDA legislation, it is expected there will now be rapid work to consolidate the two similar bills into one and to pass it to Trump before year-end – again with a veto-proof majority behind it. Indeed, a president who already signed the HKHRDA, and who is about to be impeached by the House on strictly bipartisan lines based on the Democrats just-released report, is not really going to be in a position to veto a bill backed by his own party. China has already vowed a response: banning US-based NGOs and US military visits to Xinjiang? And not getting as much coverage, but very significant, Taiwan is inviting US military experts to the island to advise on how it can bolster its defences: that’s on top of the recent agreement of US arms sales to it.

In which case, for those in markets trying to close out their books for the year-end and to get into the Xmas party spirit–and to pretend that the geopolitical issues I have been warning about as potential landmines for so long will never actually matter–it’s time for a Christmas Carol.

The following needs to be sung to the tune of ‘Santa Claus is Coming to Town’, and is best accompanied by a *large* brandy and a larger dose of tongue-in-cheek:

 

“Larry Kudlow, Larry Kudlow, Please don’t let this bull market go – tell us

A trade deal is comin’ to town! A trade deal is comin’ to town! A trade deal is comin’ to town!

He’s making a list; He’s checking it twice; Of all the things about China that’re suddenly nice – so

A trade deal is comin’ to town! A trade deal is comin’ to town! A trade deal is comin’ to town!

He sees when stocks are slipping; He knows when bears awake

He knows the Dow Jones must look good; For Trump’s electoral sake

So you better not short; You better not try; Larry Kudlow, please tell them all why – ‘cos

A trade deal is comin’ to town! A trade deal is comin’ to town! A trade deal is comin’ to town!

A great, great trade deal is comin’ to toooooooooooooownnnnn!”

And there will be nowhere singing this more loudly than Australia given that Q3 GDP came in at just 0.4% q/q, a tick weaker than expected vs. an upwardly-revised 0.6% in Q2, and meaning only 1.7% y/y, around half of where the RBA sees the low-productivity/high-net immigration Aussie economy as deserving to grow. The Reserve Bank Governor of course left rates unchanged yesterday at 0.75%, and once again displayed his magic touch in saying that some downside risks to the global economy had lessened recently. Maestro!

What else to wrap with? Kamala Harris is out of the presidential race unless she gets offered VP by someone else; and

 

Trump has stated he wouldn’t want the NHS even if it was offered to him on a silver platter; and Corbyn obviously doesn’t believe him, especially on drug pricing. On which note, the US has just proposed stripping 10-year protections for biologic drugs from generic rivals from the USMCA to speed its passage in Congress, which seems the complete opposite of what Labour is saying the US would do to the UK in a US-UK trade deal.

end

Angry Trump Cancels Press Conference, Leaves NATO Summit Early After Video Of World Leaders Laughing At Him

The leak by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation of a clip showing Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson caught on a hot mic appearing to ridicule President Trump at the NATO 70 year anniversary summit, appears to have made an already tense diplomatic situation, downright unbearable.

Shortly after Trump told reporters that Trudeau was “two-faced” in response to questions about the hot mic video, which reportedly was also a reference to the Canadian PM’s “blackface” history, Trump tweeted that he won’t hold a scheduled news conference to conclude the NATO summit, noting that he’s spoken repeatedly to reporters at meetings with world leaders that past two days, and would leave the NATO summit early, heading to Washington at the end of the day’s meetings.

Great progress has been made by NATO over the last three years. Countries other than the U.S. have agreed to pay 130 Billion Dollars more per year, and by 2024, that number will be 400 Billion Dollars. NATO will be richer and stronger than ever before.

Just finished meetings with Turkey and Germany. Heading to a meeting now with those countries that have met their 2% GOALS, followed by meetings with Denmark and Italy.

When today’s meetings are over, I will be heading back to Washington. We won’t be doing a press conference at the close of NATO because we did so many over the past two days. Safe travels to all!

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

Unclear whether @POTUS media availability this afternoon in London is still on as he now tells pool reporters he has done enough Q&A, “unless you’re demanding a press conference, and then we’ll do one.”

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

Confirmed by @POTUS that the news conference in London is cancelled.

Then Trump issued a thinly veiled threat to his NATO peers, whom he has criticized of repeatedly underpaying, saying that if they refuse to pay their required quote, he would “get them on trade,” hinting that the trade war may soon spread to even more NATO member nations:

  • TRUMP: IF NATO COUNTRIES DON’T PAY `WE’LL GET THEM ON TRADE

So, as NYT reporter Katie Rogers, summarized: “This was a really unusual trip for Trump, who abided by Boris Johnson’s wishes to not interfere in UK elections, got an earful from Macron, woke up to footage of close allies mocking him, and, on top of it all, decided not to get the final say with a presser.”

 

Katie Rogers

@katierogers

This was a really unusual trip for Trump, who abided by Boris Johnson’s wishes to not interfere in UK elections, got an earful from Macron, woke up to footage of close allies mocking him, and, on top of it all, decided not to get the final say with a presser.

And the day is not over yet.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

This will be good for both countries as China as the mega pipeline from Siberia to China goes on line

(zeorhedge)

Russian Gas Mega-Pipeline To China Goes Online As Putin & Xi Hail Closer Ties

Late Monday Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin jointly launched the major unprecedented cooperative project that had been years in the making called the ‘Power of Siberia’ gas pipeline.

The China-Russia east-route pipeline is now providing China with Russian natural gas, which according to Chinese state media is expected to reach 5 billion cubic meters in 2020 and increase to 38 billion cubic meters annually from 2024.

Crucially, S&P Global Platts estimates that total sales through the pipeline is projected to meet nearly 10% of China’s entire gas supply by 2022, ensuring vital energy security as Beijing continues to feel the pressure and uncertainty of the trade war with Washington.

 

A Chinese section of the China-Russia East Route natural gas pipeline in Heihe, China. Image source: CNN/Getty Images 

The ceremony to officially bring the pipeline online was held as a video call between Xi and Putin was underway. Xi told Putin: “The East-route natural gas pipeline is a landmark project of China-Russia energy cooperation and a paradigm of deep convergence of both countries’ interests and win-win cooperation.”

The deal had been cemented in May 2014 when Russian gas giant Gazprom signed a 30-year contract with China National Petroleum Corp, after which the pipeline agreements were signed with both leaders present in Shanghai in later 2014.

Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announced to both leaders that the pipeline had been opened via video link. “Gas is flowing to the gas transmission system of the People’s Republic of China,” he said.

A 30-year deal was signed by Putin and Xi in 2014, and while a final figure has not been announced, it is believed to be worth more than $400 billion. — CNN

Gazprom will oversee operation of the mammoth pipeline which runs more than 8,100 kilometers (5,000 miles) across the two countries.

Enrico Ivanov@Russ_Warrior

President and Chinese President Jinping launch “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline.
This is a breakthrough in the energy market that will have major geopolitical repercussions.

Embedded video

Xi hailed the pipeline’s inauguration as signaling a new start in future China-Russian cooperation and partnerships. And as Putin noted in his comments, the pipeline’s launch date coincided with the 70th anniversary of Russia-China diplomatic ties.

Putin also projected that 1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas will flow through the pipeline from Russia over the next 30 years.

 

The pipeline crosses over to China from Russia’s Blagoveshchensk, also site of the first major road bridge between the two.

 

Via Gazprom

“That step brings the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership in the energy sector to a whole new level,” Putin stated to TASS news agency.

In a worrisome sign for Washington as Moscow further cements its energy dominance in the east, the ‘Power of Siberia’ is but the first of a planned for three total major pipeline projects. It will later be joined by ‘TurkStream’ and ‘Nordstream2’, according to official statements.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1076 DOWN .0005 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.68   UP 0.012 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3081   UP   0.0085  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3275 DOWN .0017 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 6 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1076 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 6.58 POINTS OR 0.23% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 328.74 POINTS OR 1.25%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.53%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 328.74 POINTS OR 1.25%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.53% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 244.58  POINTS OR 1.05%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1476.95

silver:$17.15-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.74% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.19 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.69 DOWN 4 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.38% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.44%//UP 3  in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,29 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 85 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.32% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.61% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1076  DOWN     .0005 or 5 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.86 UP .199 OR YEN DOWN 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3094 UP .0098 POUND UP 98  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 92 basis points to 1.3200

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0499    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0513  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7561 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.78 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.23 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.64 DOWN 9  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 29.74  0.42%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 151.28 POINTS OR 1.16%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 72.46 POINTS 1.27%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 135.10 POINTS or 1.48%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 297.68 POINTS OR 1.31%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.34 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.31 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.90  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.22 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 22 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.32 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.35//

 

 

BRENT :  63.02

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.77..PLUS 6 PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.22..PLUS 6 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1078 ( DOWN 4   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN: 108.97 UP (YEN DOWN 20 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.62 DOWN 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3104 UP 107  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7499

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.91   UP 0.21 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 21 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3197 UP 95 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0499  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0522 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

 

The Dow closed UP 146.97 POINTS OR 0.53%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 46.03 POINTS OR 0.54%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.86 CLOSED DOWN 1.10

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.891%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Trump’s Trade Talk Tanks Stocks… Until Unsourced Rumor Sparks Buying-Panic

Trump’s actual words on tape prompted a notable plunge in stocks yesterday and his thoghts were confirmed by Wilbur Ross and Larry Kudlow. However, in this new normal of muppetry, today saw an unsourced rumor from Bloomberg saying that a deal is close (yeah, seriously), spark a short-squeeze-ignited ramp to erase all those losses…

Source: Bloomberg

But we note that the market was unable to crack that pre-plunge level.

 

All of which reminds us of the golden rule (and no, it never gets old!!!)…

The odds of a trade-deal rebounded to a coin-flip today (still well off the 70-plus percent odds from early November). It’s now been 53 days since Trump announced that the phase one deal was “complete”…

Source: Bloomberg

S&P and Small Caps managed to erase all of yesterday’s losses but all US majors remain lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Note that stocks really did nothing after the gap-up opening (and Trannies actually faded all day)

Today’s gains came thanks to a double-short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX dropped back below 15…

Stocks and bonds remain decoupled after almost catching down yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields spiked today (long-end marginally underperforming – 30Y +6bps, 2Y +4bps) leaving the 30Y higher on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y retraced about half its high to low drop yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar fell for the 4th straight day…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan rallied today, lifted by the trade deal rumors…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos made solid gains today until the end of the day when they got dumped…

Source: Bloomberg

…but all remain down on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices shot higher on trade hope and inventory draws and as oil surged, silver was slammed…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil surged back to recent highs…

As Silver was monkeyhammered back below $17…

 

Today’s shifts sent the price of a barrel of crude in silver to its highest since mid-Sept…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Bloomberg reports, Charles Freeman, CEO of Adaptfirst Investments, flags a warning sign for the S&P 500. Normalizing the S&P 500 for earnings suggests the price dispersion is even bigger than during the tech bubble of the late 1990s.

Source: Bloomberg

His point is, if earnings start to crack in 2020, the fallout will be much worse than it was back then.

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Asian Economic Avalanche: The Good (China), The Bad (Japan), & The Really Really Ugly (Hong Kong)

A smorgasbord of data from AsiaPac tonight poured a big bucket of cold water on the hopes for a trough in global growth.

Japan was first out of the gate with its Services PMI (slightly better than expected) but the Composite PMI remains below 50 (in contraction)

Source: Bloomberg

 

A typhoon and bad weather in October have also made it hard to discern the economy’s underlying strength. Economists have long forecast a contraction in the last three months of this year as the sales tax increase hits domestic consumption.

Commenting on the latest survey results, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said:

November data is highly discouraging for the Japanese economy. October was difficult to interpret as a consequence of the consumption tax hike and powerful typhoon. A rebound was to be expected in November, but disappointingly, the strength of the recovery was limited, with activity growing only marginally.

No notable acceleration in new business growth was also seen, suggesting that underlying demand conditions in Japan’s service sector have weakened so far in the fourth quarter.

“Japan’s service sector has been robust in 2019 so far, doing a good job at offsetting the strong drag from manufacturing.

However, based on survey data so far in the fourth quarter, a contraction in economic output seems highly plausible as we head into year-end.”

Additionally, rubbing salt in the already sore wounds of the Japanese economy, Japanese car sales in South Korea collapsed 56.4% YoY as tensions between the two nations spark backlash.

But, all will be fixed soon as Japan is preparing an economic stimulus package worth 13 trillion yen (S$163 billion) to support fragile economic growth, two government officials with direct knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg yesterday, complicating government efforts to fix public finances.

Next up was Australia, where GDP grew at only 0.4% QoQ, weaker than the expected 0.5% with consumption remaining very weak (+0.1%). As a reminder, Australia has gone 28 years without a (formal) recession.

This follows a drop in Australian services business activity in the middle of the fourth quarter, accompanied by subdued sales growth, which remained constrained by a further fall in export demand. Job creation was marginal.

November data indicated that the decline in business activity occurred amid subdued demand conditions.

Then came the real fun as Hong Kong’s Composite PMI crashed to a record low of 38.5 in November, with the sharpest drop in new business since the trough of the crisis in Nov 2008…

The average PMI reading (38.9) for October and November combined indicates the economy is on course for its weakest quarter since the survey’s inception over 21 years ago.

Commenting on the latest survey results, Bernard Aw, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, said:

November PMI data indicated that Hong Kong’s private sector suffered its worst downturn since the 2003 SARS crisis, with the latest survey indicators painting a picture of gloom for the Special Administrative Region.

“The survey showed that the escalating political unrest saw business activity shrinking at the steepest rate since the survey started in July 1998. This occurred concurrently with the sharpest decline in new sales since the depths of the global financial crisis.

The business outlook unsurprisingly remained gloomy, with confidence still stuck among the lowest levels seen in the survey history. In a further sign of pessimism, firms continued to make deep cuts to purchasing activity and inventories, reducing both at a survey record pace.”

And finally, Aw notes, “The average PMI reading for October and November combined showed the economy on track to see GDP fall by over 5% in the fourth quarter, unless December brings a dramatic recovery.”

And then came the big kahuna – China Services (and Composite) PMI. After China’s government-provided PMI surged magnificently out of nowhere (despite a record collapse in industrial profits), all eyes are on the Caixin data tonight, which also surged dramatically from 51.1 to 53.5 (smashing expectations of 51.2)

Source: Bloomberg

But, oddly, employment fell to 51.0 – the weakest since July 2019.

Commenting on the China General Services PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

“The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index edged up to 53.5 in November, a marked increase from 51.1 in the previous month, marking the highest growth rate since April this year. The reading indicates a recovery in activity across the services sector.

1) The gauge for new business picked up from a recent low in October with a solid rebound in the measure for new export business, indicating domestic and foreign demand both improved.

2) The measure of outstanding business fell back into contractionary territory after two straight months of expansion, suggesting a strengthening capability on the supply side in the services sector. The employment gauge fell marginally in November from the previous month, which marked the most modest expansion since July.

3) The gauge for prices charged by service providers rose marginally, but the reading for input costs edged down, indicating greater company profitability. In the meantime, the measure for business expectations picked up strongly, but was still lower than the long-term average, reflecting depressed business confidence.

This surprising surge in Services sent the China Composite PMI to its highest since Feb 2018

 

Source: Bloomberg

“The Caixin China Composite Output Index rose to 53.2 in November from 52 in the previous month, the highest since February 2018. The employment gauge bounced back into positive territory, reflecting easing pressure on the labor market. The measures for new orders and new export orders remained at relatively high levels, reflecting a continuous improvement in demand. The gauge for input prices edged down, pointing to easing pressure on the costs of companies. But business confidence was still weak, with the measure for future output expectations down from October.

China’s economy continued to recover in November, as domestic and foreign demand both improved. But business confidence remained subdued, reflecting the impact from uncertainties generated by the China-U.S. trade conflicts. That will restrain a recovery in economic growth. The trade dispute is the major reason behind the slowing economic growth this year, and will become a key factor affecting the stabilization and recovery of China’s economy next year.”

PBOC fixed the Yuan notably weaker tonight as the plunge in offshore yuan accelerated after Washington voted on the China Human Rights bill.

Source: Bloomberg

This summed things up rather perfectly…

Jin SEO@JTSEO9

Their numbers are getting better even during a trade war, a global slowdown, and HK falling into the abyss https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1202041281691688960 

zerohedge@zerohedge

CHINA NOV. CAIXIN SERVICES PMI 53.5 VS 51.1 IN PREVIOUS MONTH

Do you believe in miracles?

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/this morning

Futures Surge After Bloomberg Quotes “Unnamed Sources” Saying US, China Closer To Trade Deal 

We’ve seen these headlines before…

Equity futures in Europe and the US jump on “trade optimism” headlines around 4 am est. The headlines were published by Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources, who said the US and China are moving closer to the number of tariffs that would be rolled back to complete a phase-one trade deal.

The unnamed sources said President Trump’s comments on Tuesday “shouldn’t be understood to mean talks were stalling, as he was speaking off the cuff.”

Sources added a phase-one deal with China is expected to be completed before the next round of tariffs begins on Dec. 15.

E Mini S&P500 jumps 60bps on unnamed sources saying both sides are closer to a deal. We’ve heard these headlines before…

Considering unnamed sources and timing of the pump, this was more fake trade news to save equity futures from a further correction.

Protect E Mini S&P500 3100 at all costs, even if that means pumping a “trade optimism” article that had zero substance to it.

On a much larger perspective, the big techincal fight today will be E Mini S&P500 3100 and 20EMA.

And there it’s, Global Times calling out President Trump and Bloomberg for pumping fake trade news…

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

I predict there is a high probability that President Trump or a senior US official will openly say in a few hours that China-US trade talks have made a big progress in order to pump up the US stock markets. They’ve been doing this a lot.😀

And how did Twitter react to more fake trade news?

Well, some on Fintwit exhibited short fuses and took it out directly on the author of the Bloomberg market-moving article.

Bovell Global Macro@Bovell_GM

It’s that fucking whore Jenny Leonard again.

Every single market moving fake news article is written by that slut.

And it’s always unnamed sources. Bitch you’ll get capped. https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1202152856687665152 

Christophe Barraud🛢

@C_Barraud

Replying to @C_Barraud @niubi

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 The U.S. and #China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang, people familiar with the talks said – Bloomberg

View image on Twitter

Bovell Global Macro@Bovell_GM

It’s that fucking whore Jenny Leonard again.

Every single market moving fake news article is written by that slut.

And it’s always unnamed sources. Bitch you’ll get capped. https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1202152856687665152 

Christophe Barraud🛢

@C_Barraud

Replying to @C_Barraud @niubi

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 The U.S. and #China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang, people familiar with the talks said – Bloomberg

View image on Twitter

onlytrading@trade4Evr

So what? Amount of rollback does Not mean that a deal is any closer. This phase 1 deal was already done in Oct, market already rallied on it Being Done. Fuck me, what a joke.

Bovell Global Macro@Bovell_GM

It’s that fucking whore Jenny Leonard again.

Every single market moving fake news article is written by that slut.

And it’s always unnamed sources. Bitch you’ll get capped. https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1202152856687665152 

Christophe Barraud🛢

@C_Barraud

Replying to @C_Barraud @niubi

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 The U.S. and #China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang, people familiar with the talks said – Bloomberg

View image on Twitter

Leon@leon_trader

@MikeBloomberg ,@business
the next address for class action lawsuits, fake news, bullshit, manipulation

AGTrader@ag_trader

these fake headlines are causing massive disruptions in the bond mkt… not to mention the stock mkt. they are messing with the actual plumbing. when players lose all confidence in the game itself, youre asking for huge problems.

Daniel Lacalle

@dlacalle_IA

“It’s coming, it’s coming” https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1202166713892118533 

zerohedge@zerohedge

Futures Surge After Bloomberg Quotes “Unnamed Sources” Saying US, China Closer To Trade Deal  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-futures-jump-unnamed-sources-saying-us-china-closer-trade-deal 

Invictus@TBPInvictus

We are – truly, sadly – just hamsters on a wheel.

View image on Twitter
end
What a joke: a CNBC Chinese reporter pours cold water on Bloomberg’s unsourced trade deal optimism
(zerohedge)

CNBC China Reporter Pours Cold Water On Bloomberg’s Unsourced Trade Deal Optimism

CNBC’s Eunice Yoon pours cold water on Bloomberg’s fake trade news equity future pump that was released around 4 am est.

Yoon tweeted, “My sources here say #China thought it had agreement in principle on tariff rollback in early Nov but President Trump backed away from it. So unclear how “close” two sides really are. 🤔 @business U.S., China Move Closer to #Trade Deal Despite Harsh Rhetoric.”

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

My sources here say thought it had agreement in principle on tariff rollback in early Nov but President Trump backed away from it. So unclear how “close” two sides really are. 🤔@business U.S., China Move Closer to Deal Despite Harsh Rhetoric https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-04/u-s-china-move-closer-to-trade-deal-despite-heated-rhetoric 

U.S., China Move Closer to Trade Deal Despite Heated Rhetoric

The U.S. and China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang, people familiar with the…

bloomberg.com

 

E Mini S&500 futures slightly dipped on Yoon’s tweet, but a broad market reaction has yet to be seen.

As a reminder today, E Mini S&P500 3100 handle will be a warzone — likely to see more fake trade news or headlines to keep the stock market pump alive. But if the headlines become ineffective and a 3100 rejection is seen, then look out below!

end

ii)Market data/USA

Generally the ADP report is quite bullish..not this time as it disappoints with the second lowest print in a decade

This Friday we get the government’s take on the jobs

(zerohedge)

ADP Employment Data Disappoints, Second Lowest Print In A Decade

The last few months have seen ADP employment gains trending lower, alongside the plunge in ISM/PMI survey data (driven by job losses in the goods manufacturing sector), and November’s data confirms that slowdown (just as we warned here).

ADP National Employment Report prints +67k (drastically below expectations of +135k and October’s +121k)

Source: Bloomberg

The Goods-producing sector lost 18k jobs (as services added 85k)…

Source: Bloomberg

“In November, the labor market showed signs of slowing,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head
of the ADP Research Institute.

The goods producers still struggled; whereas, the service providers remained in positive territory driven by healthcare and professional services. Job creation slowed across all company sizes; however, the pattern remained largely the same, as small companies continued to face more pressure than their larger competitors.”

end

ISM Manufacturing was released yesterday and it is generally the better index that Markit. Today it was ISM services and it disappointed.

(zerohedge)

ISM Services Disappoint As “Optimism Remains Historically Subdued”

Following the mixed picture from ‘soft’ surveys on the manufacturing side of the US economy (Markit PMI higher, ISM lower), and the extremely mixed picture from AsiaPac overnight, all eyes are on the Services data this morning to confirm/cherry-pick data that means the trough in growth is over.

  • Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 (from 51.3)
  • ISM Manufacturing fell to 48.1 (from 48.3)
  • Markit Services PMI rose to 51.6 (from 50.6)
  • ISM Services fell to 53.9(from 54.7)

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, only 3 of the subindices are lower…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Aggregating the ISM Manufacturing and Services data provides a Composite picture (weighted by jobs and earnings) that shows the brief rebound fading…

Source: Bloomberg

But, as Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“With both services and manufacturing reporting stronger rates of expansion, the November PMI surveys indicate the fastest pace of economic growth for four months. The improvement is coming from a low base, however, and even at these higher levels the survey is merely indicative of annualised GDP growth in the region of 1.5%.”

“Similarly, while reviving order book growth has encouraging more companies to take on extra staff after two months of net job losses being reported, the survey’s employment index continued to run at a level consistent with monthly jobs growth of only around 100,000.

“Weakened business activity and jobs growth compared to earlier in the year also led to widespread caution with respect to pushing up selling prices in the face of an uncertain outlook. Business expectations for the year ahead continue to run at one of the lowest levels recorded by the survey since 2012 with firms worried about trade wars, slowing economic growth at home and abroad, as well as the possibility of next year’s election cycle causing customers to postpone spending decisions.”

So take your pick of ‘soft’ surveys to support your panic-bid or scramble to sell.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Not sure if this is a good idea to implement this fight now as we will probably have a massive revolt on our hands..Trump to cut 750,000 souls off of food stamps

(zerohedge)

Perfect Storm: Trump Admin To Cut 750,000 From Food Stamps Ahead Of Recession

In a bid to end the massive welfare state, the Trump administration is expected to announce new measures Wednesday that would end food stamp benefits for nearly 750,000 low-income folks. The new rules will make it difficult for “states to gain waivers from a requirement that beneficiaries work or participate in a vocational training program,” according to Bloomberg sources.

Republicans have long attempted to abolish the welfare state, claiming that the redistribution of wealth for poor people keeps them in a state of perpetual poverty. They also claim the welfare state is a system of command and control and has been used by Democrats for decades as a political weapon against conservatives, hence why most inner cities vote Democrat.

House Republicans tried to cut parts of the federal food assistance program last year, but it was quickly rejected in the Senate.

The new requirements by the Trump administration would only target “able-bodied” recipients who aren’t caring for children under six.

Sources said the measure would be one of three enacted by the Trump administration to wind down the massive federal food assistance program.

The measures are expected to boot nearly 3.7 million recipients from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Though it comes at a time when employment is in a downturn, manufacturing has stumbled into a recession, and the US economy could be entering a mild recession in the year ahead.

As to why President Trump wants hundreds of thousands of low-income folks off SNAP ahead of an election year while the economy is rapidly decelerating could be an administrative error that may lead to social instabilities in specific regions that will be affected the hardest. Then again, no turmoil could come out of it, and it’s hailed as a success during the election year.

The Department of Agriculture estimates that the new measures could save the agency $1.1 billion in year one, and $7.9 billion by year five.

Nearly 36.4 million Americans in the “greatest economy ever” are on food stamps. At least half of all Americans have low-wage jobs, barely enough to cover living expenses, nevertheless, service their credit cards with record-high interest rates.

The economy as a whole is undergoing profound structural changes with automation and artificial intelligence. Tens of millions of jobs will be lost by 2030. It’s likely the collision of these forces means the welfare state is going nowhere and will only grow in size when the next recession strikes.

Cutting food stamps for low-income folks is the right move into creating a more leaner government, but there are severe social implications that could be triggered if the new measures are passed.

And while President Trump wants to slash the welfare state for poor people, his supply-side policies and bailouts of corporate America have been record-setting in some respects.

Actions by the administration clearly show that corporate welfare for Wall Street elites is more important than welfare for low-income folks. Perfect Storm: Trump Admin To Cut 750,000 From Food Stamps Ahead Of Recession

end

Mt. Rainier And The New Madrid Fault Zone Were Both Just Hit By Significant Earthquakes

This is something that we must be very cognizant of:  two fault zones were both hit with significant earthquakes over the weekend
(courtesy Michael Snyder)
Mt. Rainier And The New Madrid Fault Zone Were Both Just Hit By Significant Earthquakes

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Mt. Rainier and the New Madrid fault zone are both shaking, and a catastrophic seismic event at either location would cause death and destruction on an unimaginable scale.

Mt. Rainier has been called “one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world”, and scientists tell us that it is just a matter of time before a major eruption occurs. When that day finally arrives, Mt. Rainier has the potential to bury hundreds of square miles with a colossal tsunami of super-heated mud that is literally several hundred feet deep. And since Mt. Rainier is very close to major population centers, we are talking about the potential for the worst disaster that we have seen in modern American history.

But a massive earthquake along the New Madrid fault zone actually has the potential to be far worse. A very deep scar under the ground that was created when North America was originally formed has made that part of the country very mechanically weak, and many experts believe that a big enough earthquake along that fault zone could literally rip the United States in half.

 

But before we discuss the New Madrid fault zone, let’s talk about what just happened at Mt. Rainier first.

According to the USGS, Mt. Rainier was hit by a magnitude 3.6 earthquake on Sunday afternoon

After a spurt of seismic activity this weekend, Mount Rainier National Park was shaken by a 3.6 magnitude earthquake Sunday afternoon.

The quake hit at 12:31 p.m. and was felt as far as Kent, nearly 80 miles away, the U.S. Geological Survey reported. The relatively shallow quake was centered roughly a mile beneath the earth’s surface.

In addition to that quake, there have been quite a few others in recent days.

In fact, it is being reported that Mt. Rainier has been hit by “more than a dozen” earthquakes since Thanksgiving day.

The Seattle Times is assuring us that this is perfectly normal, but they are also warning their readers that they “should prepare for what might happen in the event of an eruption” just in case…

Regardless, people living near Mount Rainier should prepare for what might happen in the event of an eruption, said Wes Thelen, a research seismologist at the Cascade Volcano Observatory. Specifically, an eruption could cause lahars — large volcanic mudflows — to rip down the side of the mountain.

Many of my readers clearly remember the eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980, but a catastrophic eruption of Mt. Rainier would be so much worse that the two events would not even be worth comparing. The following comes from Wikipedia

If Mt. Rainier were to erupt as powerfully as Mount St. Helens did in its May 18, 1980 eruption, the effect would be cumulatively greater, because of the far more massive amounts of glacial ice locked on the volcano compared to Mount St. Helens,[40] the vastly more heavily populated areas surrounding Rainier, and the simple fact that Mt Rainier is a much bigger volcano, almost twice the size of St. Helens.[49] Lahars from Rainier pose the most risk to life and property,[50] as many communities lie atop older lahar deposits. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), about 150,000 people live on top of old lahar deposits of Rainier.[9] Not only is there much ice atop the volcano, the volcano is also slowly being weakened by hydrothermal activity. According to Geoff Clayton, a geologist with a Washington State Geology firm, RH2 Engineering, a repeat of the 5000-year-old Osceola Mudflow would destroy EnumclawOrtingKentAuburnPuyallupSumner and all of Renton.[39] Such a mudflow might also reach down the Duwamish estuary and destroy parts of downtown Seattle, and cause tsunami in Puget Sound and Lake Washington.[51] Rainier is also capable of producing pyroclastic flows and expelling lava.[51]

A lahar is essentially a giant tsunami of super-heated mud, and they can be hundreds of feet high. If you live in that region, you might be thinking that you will just outrun any lahar that is headed your way, but the truth is that the highways will instantly be jammed once an eruption happens and a lahar can travel at speeds of up to 50 miles per hour. The following is how one author described the danger that those living in the area could potentially be facing…

The numerous towns and cities that occupy the surrounding valley would all be at risk for not only severe destruction, but complete annihilation. Residents of cities like Orting, Sumner, Buckley, and Enumclaw are estimated to have no more than 30 minutes before the lahar, speeding down from the many rivers that flow from Mount Rainier, buries their homes and businesses beneath as much as 30 feet of mud and debris. Even the larger cities like Auburn, Puyallup, and Tacoma itself are not safe. Auburn and Puyallup, with nearly 80,000 residents between them, would be covered in 20 feet of mud in less than an hour, and Tacoma, at almost 200,000, is estimated to be hit with nearly 10 feet from the lahar.

As you can see, the death and destruction would be off the charts, and let us hope that such a disaster does not arrive any time soon.

And as I mentioned earlier, a major earthquake along the New Madrid fault zone has the potential to create even greater death and destruction.

According to scientists, the New Madrid fault zone sits directly above a very deep geological scar that was created when North America was formed. According to Wikipedia, this immense scar makes “the Earth’s crust in the New Madrid area mechanically weaker than much of the rest of North America”.

Today, the New Madrid fault zone is approximately six times bigger than the San Andreas fault zone in California. It covers portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi, and the largest earthquakes in the lower 48 states have happened in this region.

Scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before more catastrophic earthquakes hit this fault zone, and that is why what has been happening near the town of Ridgely, Tennessee in recent days is so concerning

A swarm of at least 15 earthquakes reaching up to 2.1 magnitude rattled Ridgely, Tennessee — a small town near the Mississippi River — over a two-day period, the U.S. Geological Survey reports.

The other quakes in the swarm ranged from 1.1 to 1.5 magnitude, according to the USGS.

Most Americans have never heard of Ridgely, and it is definitely a very small town, but what makes this so important is that Ridgely sits directly inside the New Madrid fault zone

 

Ridgely is home to just 1,657 people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and sits less than four miles from the banks of the Mississippi River.

It’s also part of the New Madrid Seismic Zone — which the Missouri Department of Natural Resources refers to as “the most active seismic area in the United States, east of the Rocky Mountains.”

In 1811 and 1812, four absolutely massive earthquakes along the New Madrid fault zone opened up very deep fissures in the ground, they caused the Mississippi River to actually run backwards in certain places, and they were reportedly felt as far away as Washington D.C. and Boston.

Fortunately, very few people populated the region in those days, but if such a quake happened today the death and destruction would be unimaginable. The following description of one of the quakes that happened in 1811 comes from Smithsonian.com, and for a moment I would like for you to imagine what would happen if such an earthquake happened in our time…

The Midwest was sparsely populated, and deaths were few. But 8-year-old Godfrey Lesieur saw the ground “rolling in waves.” Michael Braunm observed the river suddenly rise up “like a great loaf of bread to the height of many feet.” Sections of riverbed below the Mississippi rose so high that part of the river ran backward. Thousands of fissures ripped open fields, and geysers burst from the earth, spewing sand, water, mud and coal high into the air.

The New Madrid fault zone has altered the course of the Mississippi River before, and someday it will happen again.

We live at a time when our planet appears to be getting increasing unstable. In addition to the other earthquakes that I have already mentioned, Alaska was actually hit by a magnitude 6.0 earthquake on Monday.

Unfortunately, most Americans are not going to start caring about the warning signs until a major disaster has already happened.

Most people will simply not wake up without a major amount of shaking, and let us hope that such a day can be put off for as long as possible.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

A good background as the origins of  Russgate

Farrell/Gatestone

Former Counter-Intel Officer: Durham Needs To Bring Indictments

Authored by Chris Farrell via The Gatestone Institute,

There is new evidence that U.S. Attorney John Durham is getting to the root of criminal abuses by senior U.S. law enforcement and intelligence officials in their conspiracy to undermine the Trump campaign, transition and presidency. Mr. Durham’s mandate from Attorney General William Barr — to uncover the seditious plot behind the Trump-Russia hoax, if pursued vigorously, will uncover the single greatest threat to the Constitution since the nation’s founding.

Mr. Durham’s apparent interest in FBI source Stefan Halper and the contract vehicles available to the Pentagon think tank, the Office of Net Assessments, for whom Halper worked, is an important clue.

 

Likewise, Mr. Durham’s travel to Italy for talks with the Italian government and their intelligence service points to another possible clue concerning the mysterious Maltese academic, Joseph Mifsud.

For the purposes of the manufactured Trump-Russia hoax, one need only remember the associations of Halper with Trump campaign volunteer Carter Page — and Joseph Mifsud with George Papadopoulos, a foreign policy junior advisor — to the Trump campaign.

The intelligence agencies of the federal government are prohibited from targeting American organizations in the United States. Executive Order 12333, Section 2.9 states:

Undisclosed Participation in Organizations Within the United States. No one acting on behalf of agencies within the Intelligence Community may join or otherwise participate in any organization in the United States on behalf of any agency within the Intelligence Community without disclosing his intelligence affiliation to appropriate officials of the organization, except in accordance with procedures established by the head of the agency concerned and approved by the Attorney General. Such participation shall be authorized only if it is essential to achieving lawful purposes as determined by the agency head or designee. No such participation may be undertaken for the purpose of influencing the activity of the organization or its members except in cases where:
(a) The participation is undertaken on behalf of the FBI in the course of a lawful investigation; or
(b) The organization concerned is composed primarily of individuals who are not United States persons and is reasonably believed to be acting on behalf of a foreign power.

This prohibition on running penetration operations against domestic political organizations is a legal and political “hangover” from the 1960s civil disturbances that saw (among a host of other covert action programs) US Army Counterintelligence agents working undercover against the militant Leftists organizations such as Students for a Democratic Society. The U.S. Senate Select Committee to Study Governmental Operations with Respect to Intelligence Activities, better known as the “Church Committee,” was empaneled in 1975 under the leadership of Sen. Frank Church (D-ID) to review and make recommendations on intelligence operations. The Church Committee was controversial. Critics claimed the committee exposed the “crown jewels” of U.S. intelligence and hobbled our ability to conduct legitimate collection activities. Today’s Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and Court were inspired by the final reports of the Church Committee.

The seditious coup plotters working against Trump knew the legal prohibitions on what they planned to do. How to target Trump & Co. in a “legal” manner? Was it possible, or more importantly, desirable, to have a legal finding from Attorney General Loretta Lynch justifying their plan to frame-up Trump & Co.? That would authorize their operation — but would Lynch support it? Could Lynch be counted on? Did they want a piece of paper like that floating around Washington D.C.? No, there had to be a better way to pull off the coup.

The alternative to a purely domestic intelligence operation targeting a major political party’s candidate for the presidency (and later, president) was to manufacture a foreign counterintelligence (FCI) “threat” that could then be “imported” back into the United States. Plausible deniability, the Holy Grail of covert activities, was in reach for the plotters if they could develop an FCI operation outside the continental United States (OCONUS) involving FBI confidential human sources (Halper, Mifsud, others?) that would act as “lures” (intelligence jargon associated with double agent operations) to ensnare Trump associates.

We have evidence of these machinations from December 2015 when FBI lawyer Lisa Page texts to her boyfriend, the now infamous FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok, “You get all our oconus lures approved? ;).”

To inoculate themselves from further charges of misconduct and criminality, the FBI’s mutually agreed upon lie is that their investigation of Trump/Russia began on July 31, 2016 with the improbable name “Crossfire Hurricane.” That coincides nicely with their manufactured FCI “event,” allowing the full-bore sabotage of all things and persons “Trump.” The coup plotters used a July 2016 event at the University of Cambridge as the opportunity for Carter Page to meet and develop a friendship with Stefan Halper. This is roughly the same time period that Australian diplomat Alexander Downer reported the supposedly drunken ramblings of George Papadopoulos concerning the Russians having Hillary’s emails to the FBI. Papadopoulos had already serendipitously met the mysterious Joseph Mifsud in Rome during the second week of March 2016. Learning that Papadopoulos would be joining the Trump campaign, Mifsud let Papadopoulos know that he had many important connections with Russian government officials.

In July 2019, Special Counsel Robert Mueller was questioned closely by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) concerning the persons and sequence of events detailed above.

The summation of Mueller’s testimony was, “Well, I can’t get into it.”

The coup plot failed, but the chief coup conspirators are free, crisscrossing the country on book tours and appearing as paid contributors to CNN and MSNBC. A bright note in the so far grim saga is that one of the collateral casualties has filed a civil lawsuit in the Eastern District of Virginia against Stefan Halper and MSNBC for defamation, conspiracy and tortious interference. It’s the closest thing we’ve seen to justice to date. The complaint makes remarkable and insightful reading.

It is now time for Mr. Durham to “get into it,” in a manner Mr. Mueller was either unwilling or unable to do. Time is of the utmost importance. The American public needs to see action. Indictments and trials are the only antidote for the poison of treasonous sedition.

*  *  *

Chris Farrell is a former counterintelligence case officer.

end

What on earth were the Clinton’s doing on 27 separate occasions visiting Epstein’s’s ranch in New Mexico?

(zero hedge)

Clintons Vacationed Extensively At Epstein’s New Mexico ‘Baby-Making Ranch’: Report

The Clintons regularly stayed at Jeffrey Epstein’s weird New Mexico ranch where the deceased pedophile had grand plans to seed the human race with his DNA, according to his estate manager.

Bill, Hillary and even Chelsea visited the 10,000-acre estate “almost every year after they left the White House,” according to the Daily Mail. The former first family didn’t stay at the property’s main compound, however – they spent their time in a custom cowboy-themed village Epstein built a mile south of his mountaintop villa.

the Clinton family bunked down in a special cowboy-themed village created by Epstein, which is a mile south of his own luxury mountaintop villa. They’d use one of the two guest houses, which look like they’re straight out of the 19th century.

Seen in exclusive DailyMailTV images, the guest homes are next to other traditional Wild West-style buildings such as an old schoolhouse and saloon bar. An American flag is raised high above the village, which is next door to Epstein’s private airstrip, where he arrived on his private planes, including his infamous ‘Lolita Express’.

This is all according to security expert Jared Kellogg, who was brought in by long-standing ranch manager Brice Gordon to improve security and set up a camera system at the main house and ‘cowboy village’. –Daily Mail

The Clintons maintain that they had minimal contact with Epstein, despite records proving he flew on the disgraced financier’s ‘Lolita Express’ Boeing 727-200 no fewer than 27 times (which Epstein sold one week before his July arrest on suspicion of sex-trafficking minors).

According to Kellogg, ranch manager Brice Gordon kept bragging about the Clintons staying at the ranch – one of several of Epstein’s homes were underage girls were reportedly trafficked from all over the world.

 

Pictures from inside Epstein’s main house in New Mexico show a ‘party shower’ for up to eight people with four shelves full of toiletries and oils

“My contact was Brice, their main concern was that there was no video surveillance on the property at all. I thought this was a simple request, as they wanted surveillance to protect their investment. It’s a huge site,” said Kellogg. “But what was weird was that the whole time I was on site, Brice would be bragging about how the Clintons would visit, the whole family. Not just Bill, but Bill, his wife, their kid, and they would stay on the ranch itself. He had built this Western replica village with a saloon, barn houses, old school house and when you’re walking through it, it feels like you’re walking through the 1800s.”

“His biggest concern was monitoring and covering that area, so my main focus was mounting cameras on poles to cover the driveways, walkways, the ins and outs of each house and facilities,” the Mail cites Kellogg as adding. “It was like Westworld, it’s like they built a functioning movie set, they put a lot of thought and detail into it, the flooring and facilities in there.”

‘I was saying how cool the replica houses were, they’re pretty neat like the 1800s. He said: ”Yeah, they’re built for guests, we get a lot of visitors. It’s really cool the Clintons come out and hang out [with Epstein].”

‘It sounded like a normal summer vacation.’ -Jared Kellogg

As the Mail notes, Epstein had a picture of Bill Clinton in a blue dress hanging in his Upper East Side townhouse – a strange parody of former the infamous cum-stained dress Monica Lewinsky wore (and kept), as revealed by the Drudge Report.

Kellogg says he was stopped from going into certain areas of Epstein’s New Mexico estate, but briefly explored its underground sections.

In November, a former contractor told the Mail that Epstein had built a secret basement ‘strip club.’

“My access was very controlled. During the site walk, it was dictated where I could and couldn’t go. There were certain facilities I wasn’t allowed to go in, which was odd, as they were boarded up, and they looked like they could have big parties in them, but I didn’t think much of it.

 

 

The large indoor bathing area has a over-sized pool, hot tub and a framed shower behind it

“They wanted to put very, very limited camera coverage on the main house itself. I was going to put up a couple of cameras on the exterior of the main entrance.

“At the main entrance, there’s a downward slope at the back that goes into the basement. I was able to briefly go in. There was a long hallway to a big foyer and there was a door and that was about it. The two guest houses I was not permitted to go into,” Kellogg said.

Due to security reasons, I wasn’t permitted to even put a camera location on the drawing that we would then have on our records.

What is odd is that as a security professional, for me to give the best protection I can give a customer, I need the full layout of the land. I need to see the nooks and crannies, all the blind spots. They were limiting that access.

The staff only lived in one house, as far as I was aware, which is the the one nearest to the main gate. The saloon bar is in the center [of the village], there’s a bar area and looks like where they’d throw parties from my own observations. There’s also a barn/hay storage, and they’d put tractors and other vehicles in it.’

Considering Epstein was a multi-millionaire, Kellogg said Gordon wanted to do the security on the cheap.

Instead of using an expensive, robust camera system, which used underground cables, he wanted a ‘point-to-point wireless fluid mesh design’, which means cameras are operating via antenna, and is considerably cheaper. –Daily Mail

“What was odd to me was that I wasn’t able to interact with Epstein. If it’s your house, you have your concerns, the task had been delegated to Brice, he seemed to be in charge of everything.”

Maybe it would have been different if Bryce was a 14-year-old girl?

end

Hunter Biden fires his lawyer and then does not show up for his child support hearing

(zerohedge)

Hunter Biden’s Lawyer Abruptly Quits After ‘Father-Of-The-Year’ Blows Off Child Support Hearing

Hunter Biden’s lawyer abruptly quit on Monday after the former Vice President’s son and Ukraine energy expert failed to show up for a child support hearing regarding his out-of-wedlock child with a D.C. stripper from Arkansas.

According to the Daily Mail, lawyer Dustin McDaniel – the former Attorney General for Arkansas, filed a motion to withdraw after he says Biden’s personal lawyer ‘advised’ him that he was being discharged.

“(C)ounsel will take all steps reasonably practical to protect defendant’s interests and make every effort to ensure an efficient and judicious transition for new counsel,” wrote McDaniel.

Lunden Roberts, 28, is suing Biden for $11,000 in legal fees, plus child support payments after a DNA test revealed he was the father. Biden, meanwhile, says he’s broke an has requested that the judge seal his financial records due to “significant debts” despite having been paid vast sums of money while sitting on the board of Ukrainian gas company Burisma.

Hunter was ordered by Judge Don McSpadden to provide at least three years of tax returns before he could reach a decision on monetary support for the child, whose name and gender have not been revealed. Biden has requested that his financial records be sealed to avoid public ’embarrassment’ over claims of ‘significant debts,’ according to the Mail.

In addition to preventing the disclosure of Biden’s alleged debts, it is thought information on his business ventures, investments, expenses, taxes and personal property valuations would also be included in the documents. –Daily Mail

Of course, Hunter’s financial records could also reveal the extent of payments received while sitting on the board of Burisma, which paid his consulting firm $83,333 per month.

 

Biden filed a motion for a Protective Order of his financial records in the Arkansas Circuit Court of Independence [last] Wednesday, citing fears that such information would be used ‘maliciously’ by the media if disclosed publicly.

‘The likelihood that [Biden’s] private records will be used in an inappropriate or malicious manner for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with these proceedings is exceedingly high and should not be tolerated by the court,’ the filing reads.

Any such disclosures, Biden’s attorneys claim, would furthermore cause their client ‘undue prejudice, annoyance, embarrassment, and/or oppression.’

‘Due to the extraordinary circumstances surrounding the parties involved in this matter, it is in the interest of justice and necessary for a Protective Order to be in place,’ Biden’s attorney Dustin McDaniel stated.

Joe Biden is accused of abusing his position as then-Vice President to have Ukraine’s top prosecutor fired while he was conducting a wide-ranging investigation of Burisma and its owner, Mykola Zlochevsky – the country’s former minister of ecology who is accused of tax violations, money laundering, and self-dealing. His investigation was closed after 10 months, with the fired prosecutor – Viktor Shokin, claiming it was because he was investigating Biden.

President Trump’s request that Ukraine investigate is currently at the heart of US impeachment proceedings led by House Democrats.

Hunter’s child support case, meanwhile, has been adjourned until January 7.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Schiff, as expected, filed his impeachment report.  It calls for Trump’s impeachment even though there is no evidence.  The big news is that Schiff procured the phone records of Rep. Nunes, journalist John Solomon and the president’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani.  This debases the probe and puts Team Schiff in legal jeopardy.

Judicial Watch’s @TomFitton: House Democrats somehow obtain @RudyGiuliani phone records in a remarkable abuse of @RealDonaldTrump’s constitutional rights.

NBC: House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., declined to say how the House obtained the phone records.

House Democrats release Trump impeachment report, blast scheme to ‘solicit foreign interference’ in 2020 race – “The evidence of the President’s misconduct is overwhelming, and so too is the evidence of his obstruction of Congress. Indeed, it would be hard to imagine a stronger or more complete case of obstruction than that demonstrated by the President since the inquiry began.” [You can’t make this up!]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-intel-committee-releases-impeachment-report

WH: “At the end of a one-sided sham process, Chairman Schiff & the Democrats utterly failed to produce any evidence of wrongdoing by President Trump. This report reflects nothing more than their frustrations. Chairman Schiff’s report reads like the ramblings of a basement blogger straining to prove something where this is evidence of nothing.

Schiff hired former NSC colleague of alleged whistleblower Eric Ciaramella the day after Trump-Ukraine call – Sean Misko’s official hire date was July 26… Before joining the NSC, Misko worked in the Obama administration at the State Department for deputy chief of staff Jake Sullivan, who went on to become Hillary Clinton’s senior foreign policy adviser during her 2016 presidential campaign…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/schiff-hired-former-nsc-colleague-of-alleged-whistleblower-eric-ciaramella-the-day-after-trumps-ukraine-call

OAN’s @JackPosobiec: If Republicans had any stones they would subpoena Adam Schiff’s phone calls now too.  And Eric Ciaramella

OAN: Rep. Devin Nunes files a $435 million defamation lawsuit against CNN for claiming he met with former Ukraine prosecutor Viktor Shokin in 2018 to get dirt on Joe Biden.

@MZHemingway: Fun reminder that Jerry Nadler revealed his impeachment plans (for both Kavanaugh and Trump!) in my presence on the Amtrak from NY to DC the morning after Election Day in 2018. For those who think this is about a 2019 phone call w/ Ukraine or something….

https://thefederalist.com/2018/11/07/incoming-democrat-chairman-dems-will-go-all-in-on-russia-impeach-kavanaugh-for-perjury/#.XeZsys-OwBI.twitter

Nadler Announces Four Professors for First Impeachment Inquiry Hearing in Judiciary Committee

Tthree chosen by the committee’s Democrats, and one chosen by the committee’s Republicans.

    The Democrats’ witnesses include Harvard Law School professor Noah Feldman, Stanford Law School professor Pamela Karlan, and University of North Carolina Law School professor Michael Gerhardt. The sole Republican witness is George Washington University Law School professor Jonathan Turley, a liberal who nonetheless has become a frequent critic of Democrats’ approach to the Constitution in recent years… Feldman also argued that Trump could be impeached because of “conflicts of interest” and “foreign emoluments” — and even said Trump could be impeached for “defamation” after he accused former President Barack Obama of having his “wires tapped” at Trump Tower

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/12/02/jerry-nadler-announces-four-professors-for-first-impeachment-inquiry-hearing-in-judiciary-committee/

Ken Starr said the academic witnesses will bring their political bias to the unfair impeachment hearing.  The former Whitewater special prosecutor excoriated Dems for staging impeachment hearings while the president was in London for NATO meetings.

GOP @RepMarkGreen: It’s unconscionable that Democrats have decided to hold another #ImpeachmentHearing while @POTUS represents our country at NATO. The President is on an important mission to strengthen our security and alliances, and they’re home working to undermine him.

Lisa Page doesn’t want you to think about FBI wrongs in Trump probe

The text messages between the two had “potentially indicated or created the appearance that ­investigative decisions were ­impacted by bias or improper considerations.”  It was special counsel Robert Mueller, not Attorney General Bob Barr, who fired Strzok and Page after he learned of the text messages, because he feared they would further compound the perception that the investigation was prejudiced against Trump…

https://nypost.com/2019/12/02/lisa-page-doesnt-want-you-to-think-aboout-fbi-wrongs-in-trump-probe/

@paulsperry_: IG Horowitz “guaranteed” Lisa Page and Strzok that their extramarital affair “would not be made public.” Horowitz also allowed them to search their private email accounts for information relevant to his investigation & trusted that they found nothing relevant

  Top McCabe aide Lisa Page said they opened probe of Trump campaign b/c they learned  Papadopolous might be “coordinating w the Russian government in the release of emails.” “Coordinating”? W the “Russian government”?! Really? Let’s see the E.C. Let’s see if that’s substantiated

   Brennan mouthpiece Natasha Bertrand of Politico has harassed SpyGate prosecutor Durham on his personal cellphone on behalf of Brennan

   McCabe/Brennan mouthpiece Natasha Bertrand of Politico has since scrubbed from Twitter this confession that she was used by McCabe:

https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2019/09/politico-tweet-mccab-lawyers.jpg

WaPo: Sen. Kamala Harris drops out of presidential race

Harris was a MSM darling and initially was considered a top three contender.

end

Let us close with this interview of very popular Michael Snyder and Greg Hunter

(Greg Hunter/Michael Snyder)

Debt Bubble to End All Bubbles – Michael Snyder

By Greg Hunter On December 4, 2019

Journalist and book author Michael Snyder says corporate debt is at record highs standing at $10 trillion. Snyder points out debt is setting records in every aspect of the economy and contends, “If you include all other forms of corporate debt not listed on the stock exchanges, that brings the total to $15.5 trillion, which is equivalent to 74% of GDP. We’ve never seen anything like this before in all of U.S. history. That is just one form of debt and how our society has grown the debt. People need to realize the only reason why we have any prosperity in this country today is because it is fueled by debt. We have been building up this bubble, and it is the bubble to end all bubbles. Look at consumers. U.S. consumers are now $14 trillion in debt, which is an all-time record. State and local governments are at all-time debt record levels. The U.S. government . . . we just hit $23 trillion in debt, more than double since the last financial meltdown. . . . We are stealing from future generations more than $100 million every single hour of every single day. This is a crime beyond comprehension, and it’s been going on more than a decade. . . .All the debt has bought for us is more time to expand the bubble for relative stability. Meanwhile, we are literally committing national suicide and literally destroying the future of this country and the future of this republic. We are destroying everything the founders built by insatiable greed in this generation.”

Snyder says you don’t have to wait for the next recession because it’s already started. Snyder says, “Eventually, this whole thing is going to come crashing down. This thing is not sustainable. Here in the United States, we are already in a manufacturing recession. We are already in a transportation recession. We’re already in a corporate earnings recession. We are already in trouble that I document regularly on my website. We are already seeing dozens of data points that an economic slowdown is already happening. This is what we will notice first. We will go into a recession, and things are going to start getting bad, but beyond that . . . we are headed for the Greatest Depression. It’s the perfect storm. . . . We are talking about the breakdown of trade with China. . . . We have witnessed the complete and total breakdown of relations between the United States and China. . . . They (China) view us (America) as their primary global enemy. So, there is not going to be any kind of comprehensive trade agreement. You can forget that, and that has been one of the only things holding this stock market up.”

Snyder says no China trade deal will cause the stock market to “lose hope for the future.” Snyder predicts stocks will “fall at least back to its long term averages, which is 40% to 50% lower than stocks are today.”

Snyder also says, “The system is failing. People that have faith in Wall Street, people that have faith in Washington, people that have faith in the Federal Reserve and in the system, ultimately, they are going to be extremely, extremely disappointed. Most Americans are going to be blindsided by this, and most people have no idea what’s coming, absolutely no idea. We’re not just talking about Mad Max. We’re not just talking about Armageddon. We’re talking about the end of America. In the long term, if you want to prepare, you need to prepare for the end of our country.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Michael Snyder, creator of TheEconomicColl apseblog.com.

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: