DEC 5/GOLD UP $3.60 TO $1478.00//SILVER UP 14 CENTS TO $17.00//ANOTHER STRONG QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD//FRANCE PARALYZED TODAY//HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1478.00 UP $3.60    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.00 UP 14 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) : 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1475.00

 

silver:  $16.86

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  0/138

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 12/04/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 12/04/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:34:09
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,474.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/04/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/06/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 C HSBC 33
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 7
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 8
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
661 C JP MORGAN 12 79
685 C RJ OBRIEN 3
686 C INTL FCSTONE 6
690 C ABN AMRO 11
737 C ADVANTAGE 20 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 64 9
880 C CITIGROUP 3
880 H CITIGROUP 15
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 138 138
MONTH TO DATE: 8,896

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 138 NOTICE(S) FOR 13800 OZ (0.4292 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8896 NOTICES FOR 889600 OZ  (27.62 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

161 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 805,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2704 for 13,520,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7416 UP 223 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7376 UP 182

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 2462 CONTRACTS FROM 205,807 UP TO 208,269 DESPITE THE 31 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; DEC 0; MARCH:  4520 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  4520 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4520 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4520 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 22.60 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 31 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

17.725   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO REVERSE TUESDAY’S HUGE GAIN…AND THEY WERE QUITE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS.. ALSO, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A WHOPPING 6982 CONTRACTS. OR 34.91 MILLION OZ…..

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

9123 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 9123 CONTRACTS) OR 45.62 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1825 CONTRACTS OR 9.123 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  45.62 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 6.52% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,1028.28   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2462, DESPITE THE 31 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4520 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED: 6982 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 4520 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2462  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 31 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.86 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.042 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 149% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 161 NOTICE(S) FOR 805,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  17.725 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 1938 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 699,078. THE FALL IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED WITH A STRONG $4.00 PRICING LOSS ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// YESTERDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5,809 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  5,809 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 699,078,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3871 CONTRACTS: 1938 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5809 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3,871 CONTRACTS OR 387,100OZ OR 12.04 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $4.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 12.04  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN  $4.00) .THEY WERE ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (12.04 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION WILL NOW SWITCH OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 43,384 CONTRACTS OR 4,338,400 oz OR 134.94 TONNES (5 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,676 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 134.94 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 134.94/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.80% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5860.64  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1938 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($4.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5,809 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5,809 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3871 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5,809 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1938 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 12.04 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A FALL IN PRICE OF $4.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  161 notice(s) filed upon for 805,000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES

AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE AND FAKE STORAGE

DEC 5/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 888.57 tonnes

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

DEC 5/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2462 CONTRACTS from 205,807 UP TO 208,269 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR DEC. 0; FOR MA4520  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4520 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2462  CONTRACTS TO THE 4520 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 6982 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 34.91 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 17.725 MILLION OZ//

 

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 31 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 4520 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.75 POINTS OR 0.74%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 154.48 POINTS OR 0.59%   /The Nikkei closed UP 164.86 POINTS OR 0.71%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1 .14%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0413 /Oil UP TO 58.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.51 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0413 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0420 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA

Just to make sure that we do not forget:  China repeats for the nth time that the USA must reduce tariffs for phase one of the trade deal to go ahead.

(zerohedge)

ii)China
For the first time ever, A China IPO flopped
(zerohedge)

iii)China

Another record in China as we witness a huge number of bond defaults in 2019
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY

The floodgates are now open as German banks are starting to charge retail customers for deposits

(zerohedge)

ii)UK

The Conservatives are gaining as it looks like a majority government and then Brexit can proceed

(zerohedge)

iii)

FRANCE
FRANCE IN A MESS AS THE COUNTRY IS PARALYZED BY THE LARGEST GENERAL STRIKE IN  DECADES
(ZEROHEDGE)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/USA

The USA is thinking that they might block Russia from using the SWIFT system for payment. The Russian president states that this would be an act of war

we will keep you updated on this..

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

SWEDEN

Just awful: elderly residents in Stockholm are kicked out of apartments to make way for migrants

(courtesy Watson/Summitt News)

7. OIL ISSUES

Aramco goes public and raises $25.6 billion in the world’s biggest IP0

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)We should experience  a gold rush in Scotland as a large gold nugget was discovered.  The area has not been explored for a gold deposit

(zerohedge)

ii)Would you believe this??  Tiny Mongolia buys 14.4 tonnes of gold this year and this is physical gold, but paper gold.

Xinhua/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Although the trade deficit shrinks, the data is not good for the USA economy as both import and exports shrink which is certainly a negative to GDP.Chinese imports drop but so does exports to them

 

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Luxury goods operation  Tiffany’s report disastrous earnings and this explains why they were eager to sell to LVMH.  The world is running out of liquidity to buy things.

(zerohedge)

b)This could be deadly to Boeing: Regulatory delays  (FAA)

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Pelosi claims that the House will draft articles of impeachment against Trump and thus there will be hearings in the Senate. Should be worth the price of admission as the Bidens, Pelosi, Schiff, the Whistleblower will all be forced to testify

(zerohedge)

b)This one is good:  A furious Scalise demands to know why Schiff was spying on Nunes by obtaining call records of calls between Nunes, Rudy Guiliani, Parnas and John Solomon

(zerohedge)

c)Although this is suspect but it looks like Mifsud was not a USA asset.  However we must wait for the iG report to be sure

(zerohedge)

d)Trump will force Schiff the Bidens and Pelosi will testify if the impeachment goes to the Senate

(zerohedge)

e)This ought to be fun!!  Hunter Biden must produce 5 years financial records in his paternity suit

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1938 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 699,078 ACCOMPANYING THE  LOSS OF $4.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5,809 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 0 ; FEB: 5,809  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5,809 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 3,871 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5,809 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOSTCONSIDERABLE SIZED 1938 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS DONALD TRUMP WAS ON THE WARPATH YESTERDAY AGAINST CHINA AND FRANCE//AND THE BANKERS INITIATED ANOTHER RAID// (IT FELL $4.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 3871 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  3871 CONTRACTS OR 387,100 OZ OR 12.04 TONNES.

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 2267 open interest stand for a LOSS of 1758 contracts.  We had 2025 notices filed upon yesterday so we AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED FOR THE THIRD DAY  267 contracts or an additional 26,700 will stand (0.8304 TONNES) for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and negated on receiving a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI LOSS by 69 contracts DOWN to 3877 which is extremely high for a January delivery month.. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A LOSS  OF 8,587 in contracts DOWN to 512,984.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

 

WE HAD 138 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  13,800 OZ. (0.4292 TONNES)

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 2462  CONTRACTS FROM 205,807 UP TO 208,269 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A HUGE 31 CENT FALL IN PRICING/YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a loss of 245 contracts down to 1002. We had 170 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we LOST 75 contracts or an additional 375,000  oz will NOT stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys JUST COULD NOT FIND ANY METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND SO THEY MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS and as well RECEIVED a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

After December we have the non active month of January and here we see that we GAINED 89 contracts UP to 1155.  FEBRUARY  saw its ANOTHER addition of 4 contracts to stand at 58.  MARCH saw an increase of 2515 contracts up to 165,394.  March is a very active month for silver.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 161 notice(s) filed for 805,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 224,772  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  341,959  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 5/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
6047.123 oz
HSBC
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

3008.801

Delaware

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
138 notice(s)
 13,800 OZ
(0.4292 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2129 contracts
(212900 oz)
6.622 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8896 notices
889,600 OZ
27.620 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii)Delaware:  3008.800 oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 3008.80 oz

 

 

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

I) OUT OF  HSBC:  4950.943 oz

II) OUT OF SCOTIA:  1096.180 OZ

 

total gold withdrawals; 6047.173  oz

We had 1 adjustments

i) Out of HSBC 19,791.093 oz was adjusted out  of the dealer and this landed into the customer account and we will deem this a settlement  (.6155 tonnes)

 

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2138 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8896) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (2267 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (138 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,102,500 OZ OR 34.292 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (8896 x 100 oz)  + (4041)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (138 x 100 oz )which equals 1,102,500 oz standing OR 34.292 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

We gained 267 contracts or an additional 267,000 oz will stand at the comex as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.218 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              34.292 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 11.3124 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 110.27  tonnes

 

Thus:

110.27 tonnes of delivery –

11.9279 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 98.342 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.218 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,389,834.939 oz or  43.229 tonnes 
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,370,332.596 oz (42.62 tonnes)  errors by me corrected
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//and JPMorgan 513.930 oz (.0159 tonnes)
    total  238,067.576 oz (7.40490 tonnes) 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged)  1,132.265 oz or 35.218
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,821,750.180 oz 274.39 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 5 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 613,891.610 oz
Delaware
HSBC
Int Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1,333,099.560 oz
Brinks
CNT

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
161
CONTRACT(S)
(805,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
841 contracts
 4,205,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2704 contracts

13,520,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 2 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into the dealer brinks:  732,032.860 oz

ii) Into the dealer CNT:  601,066.700 oz

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 1,333,099.560  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.4% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/313.4 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of Delaware: 3883.400 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 600,102.810 oz

iii) Out of Int Delaware: 9905.400 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 613,891.610  oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) Delaware: 119,341.198 oz was adjusted out of the customer Delaware and into the dealer Delaware

 

 

total dealer silver:  85.041 million

total dealer + customer silver:  315.169 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 161 contract(s) FOR 805,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2704 x 5,000 oz = 13,520,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (1002) and the number of notices served upon today 161 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 2704 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (1002)- number of notices served upon today (161) x 5000 oz equals 17,725,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We gained 75 contracts or an additional 375,000 oz will not  stand at the comex as they  morphed into London based forwards. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 161 notice(s) filed for 805,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  64,378 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 117,643 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 117,643 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 588 million  OZ 84.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV riseS TO -1.51% ((DEC 5/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.30% to NAV (DEC 5/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.51%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.67 TRADING 14.17///DISCOUNT  3,38

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 5/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 888.58 tonnes

*IN LAST 718 TRADING DAYS: 48.68 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 618 TRADING DAYS: A NET 118.37 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

 

 

DEC 5:  SLV INVENTORY

368.969 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.92/ and libor 6 month duration 1.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.92%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.92

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.00

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

We should experience of a gold rush in Scotland as a large gold nugget was discovered.  The area has not been explored for a gold deposit

(zerohedge)

Largest gold nugget in Britain found in Scottish river as area remains largely unexplored

 Section: 

By Yohannes Lowe and Martha Comerford
The Telegraph, London
Wednesday, December 4, 2019

The largest gold nugget in Britain has been found in a Scottish river, as experts reveal that members of the public are taking up hunting after watching YouTube clips.

The diver, who wishes to remain anonymous, discovered the L80,000 “doughnut-shaped” nugget using a method called “sniping,” in which a prospector uses a snorkel and hand tools to scan the riverbed for treasures.

… 

The 22-carat lump, found in two pieces 10 minutes apart in an undisclosed river in May, weighed a total of 121.3 grams.It earned the name of the Reunion Nugget after the two lumps, weighing 89.6 and 31.7 grams each, perfectly fitted together, leaving a small hole in the middle.

The specific location of the discovery is being closely guarded amid fears that its revelation could lead to Scotland’s biggest gold rush in years.

Experts have reported an increase in enthusiasts taking up the hobby after watching videos of others mining for gold on online platforms such as YouTube.

It is estimated that there are around 50,000 rivers in Scotland, with many unexplored because they are so difficult to reach by car or train.

Leon Kirk, from Gold Planning Supplies UK, told The Telegraph that many of these river beds are “jumping” with valuable gold for those with the means to access them. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/03/largest-gold-nugget-britain-…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END
Would you believe this??  Tiny Mongolia buys 14.4 tonnes of gold this year and this is physical gold, but paper gold.
Xinhua/GATA)

Mongolia’s central bank buys 14.4 tons of gold so far this year

 Section: 

From Xinhua, Beijing
Tuesday, December 3, 2019

ULAN BATOR, Mongolia — Mongolia’s central bank announced on Tuesday that it has bought a total of 14.4 tons of gold from legal entities and individuals in the first 11 months of this year.

As of November the bank’s average gold purchase price was 128,002.45 Mongolian tugriks (more than US$47) per gram, the Bank of Mongolia said in a statement.

… 

Purchasing gold is said to be one of the key instruments for the Asian country’s central bank to increase its official foreign exchange reserves. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/03/c_138602689.htm

* * *

 

iii) Other physical stories:

 

World’s Largest Commodity Trader Plummets To Three Year Low On Bribery Probe

Glencore Plc, the world’s largest commodity trader, tumbled almost 9% to a three year low and was briefly halted following news that it was being investigated for bribery by U.K. authorities, deepening the company’s long-running legal troubles.

The announcement by the UK’s Serious Fraud Office adds to separate corruption probes that Glencore is facing in the U.S. and Brazil, which have sent the company’s stock sliding in recent years. Without providing much detail, the SFO said it’s looking into suspicions of bribery by the company, its employees, agents and associated persons.

Glencore said it will cooperate with the probe, but didn’t provide any further details.

“This is an obvious negative for the Glencore investment case,” RBC analyst Tyler Broda wrote in a research note. “We believe this clearly will hamper sentiment in what remains a complex investment case for investors.” He also said that the language of the U.K.’s investigation, albeit with limited detail, suggests it could be wider in scope. That potentially raises the penalty, if Glencore is found guilty or reaches a settlement.

As Bloomberg adds, The new probe also ramps up pressure on Glencore’s billionaire Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg. He told investors earlier this week to prepare for more leadership changes and hinted that his own departure may come sooner than previously anticipated.

The investigation will be also be a major test for the U.K. prosecutor, which has stumbled with some cases. Three Tesco Plc officials caught up in an accounting scandal were cleared after a pair of trials and the agency has dropped some high-profile probes into individuals at companies including Rolls-Royce Plc and GlaxoSmithKline Plc.

For trading powerhouse Glencore, which in recent years has emerged as the commodity equivalent of Deutsche Bank which appears to have involvement in virtually every single financial crime committed over the past two decades, the investigations have raised fundamental questions about how the business of commodities trading is conducted around the world, according to Bloomberg, as its traders have traditionally been willing to do business in many of the world’s most impoverished and corrupt countries. And they have long relied on agents – even more corrupt intermediaries who work on commission – to help them secure deals.

Last year, Bloomberg reported that the agency was preparing to open an investigation into Glencore and its work with Israeli billionaire Dan Gertler and former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila. Gertler and Kabila have been implicated in previous British and American bribery investigations. The U.S. imposed sanctions on Gertler in 2017, saying he’d used his friendship with Kabila to corruptly build his fortune.

Gertler and Glencore first invested together in a Congolese mine in 2007 and developed a close partnership over the years in the Mutanda and Katanga Mining copper and cobalt operations. While Glencore has cut its business relations with Gertler, it still must pay him royalties for the mines.

Glencore is also being investigated by the U.S. DOJ and Brazilian authorities in the Car Wash scandal. The company has also been subpoenaed by the Justice Department for documents relating to possible corruption and money laundering in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Venezuela. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is also investigating the company for possible corrupt practices.

 

In response to the DoJ investigation, which the company said it’s cooperating with, Glencore set up a board committee to respond to a U.S. probe, that included chairman and former BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward.

“It’s more of the same, but now it’s getting attacked from a different angle,” said Hunter Hillcoat, a London-based analyst at Investec Securities Ltd. “Glencore was already trading at a discount because of the DoJ, but when this news comes out it gets whacked again.”

Glencore has lost over 20% of its value in 2019, dramatically underperforming the trading giants in its peer group, BHP, Rio Tinto and Angelo American.

end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0413/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0420   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 21.35 POINTS OR 0.74%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 154.48 POINTS OR 0.59%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 164.86 POINTS OR 0.71%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.47/Euro FALLS TO 1.1097

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.88/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.60 and Brent: 63.51

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.30%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.32% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.46%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.62: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.53

3k Gold at $1478.50 silver at: 16.95   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 9/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.82

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.88 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9882 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0966 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.30%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.78% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.23%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7586..

Futures Jump On, You Guessed It, “Increased Hope Of Trade Deal”

After two gloomy days for stocks at the start of the month which led to the worst December for the S&P since 2008, markets rebounded around the globe following an unsourced Bloomberg report that said the trade negotiations with China are still very much on track “according to people who wish to remain anonymous” (such as Larry Kudlow), yet who apparently are too worried to reveal that they have a different agenda than the president. In any case, the lack of new trade deal pessimism coupled with a report that Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman said officials are in “close contact” with U.S. counterparts, even though China officially reiterated that the US must rollback existing tariffs to agree to a Phase 1 deal, was sufficient for global stocks to extend their levitation for a second day and for Reuters to proclaim that…

Indeed, the latest batch of headlines around trade suggested the world’s two largest economies were closer to agreeing how many tariffs would be rolled back in a “phase one” trade deal, while President Donald Trump said talks with China were going “very well”. This more optimistic tone around trade helped Wall Street’s main indexes snap a three-day losing streak in the previous session, putting the benchmark S&P 500 index just 1% away from an all-time high hit last week. Of course, things could turn sour fast: if no agreement is reached soon, around $160bn in tariffs on Chinese goods would come into effect from Dec. 15.

Or as DB’s Jim Reid put it:

 

We are living in a pre-December 15th world where one headline or tweet on trade has the ability to turn a good day into a bad one and visa-versa. The same story has the ability to wipe or add hundreds of billions (even trillions) from/to the value of global financial assets. That’s what we’re dealing with at the moment.

 

At 7am, Dow e-minis were up 104 points, or 0.38%; S&P 500 e-minis were up 11 points, or 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 37 points, or 0.45%.

In the US, shares of tariff-sensitive semiconductor companies looked set to rise for the second straight day, with Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia gaining between 1% and 1.3% in premarket trading. Among stocks, Dollar General Corp jumped about 5% after the discount store chain raised its full-year profit forecast.  Nike shares climbed 2% after a report said Goldman Sachs upgraded the sportswear maker’s stock to “buy” from “neutral”, while Tiffany which is being bought by Louis Vuitton owner LVMH, nudged 0.5% lower after the luxury jeweler fell short of analyst’s estimates for quarterly sales.

European stocks were also a sea of green, as the Stoxx Stoxx Europe 600 rose as much as 0.5%, extending earlier gains, along with U.S. index futures. Most sectors were in the green, led by healthcare +0.9% and retail +0.8%; travel & leisure little changed.

Earlier in the session Asian stocks climbed, led by technology companies; most markets in the region were up, with Australia leading gains and South Korea slipping. Japan’s Topix rose, driven by electronic firms and drug makers, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a $239 billion stimulus package to support growth. The Shanghai Composite Index closed higher, with China Life Insurance and Foshan Haitian Flavouring among the biggest boosts. The Sensex gained for a second day as India’s central bank defied expectations for a rate cut and kept borrowing costs unchanged

There is other stuff besides trade too: after lackluster readings on domestic services sector activity and private payrolls growth on Wednesday, traders are also awaiting the Labor Department’s non-farm payrolls data due Friday.
Treasuries added to their losses from Wednesday, and were modestly cheaper across the curve, dragged lower by wider losses across bunds and gilts over early European session. Yields were higher by at least 1bp vs Wednesday’s close, 10-year by 1.7bp to ~1.79%; 10-year gilts and bunds underperformed by ~1bp. Indian government bonds tumbled after its central bank unexpectedly left interest rates unchanged.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for a fifth day of losses. The pound rose for a fifth day against the greenback as expectations grow for a Conservative victory in next week’s election, while the euro stayed near $1.11 as real money interest lent support.

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 3,115.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 403.67
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 163.97
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 521.04
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 23,300.09
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,711.41
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 26,217.04
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,899.47
  • Sensex up 0.02% to 40,857.88
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 6,682.95
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,060.74
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to -0.302%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1092
  • Brent Futures down 0.08% to $62.95/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.942%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 0.458%
  • Brent Futures down 0.08% to $62.95/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.02% to $1,474.91
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 97.52

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Japan announced a stimulus package amounting to around 26 trillion yen ($239 billion) spread over the coming years, with fiscal measures around half that figure
  • ECB Governing Council members, who collectively lowered the key rate to minus 0.5% shortly before Draghi’s term ended, are increasingly portraying it as a necessary evil that shouldn’t be compounded
  • Federal Reserve officials won’t allow the 2020 presidential election to sway their monetary policy decisions and will keep interest rates on hold for the next two years, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg
  • German factory orders unexpectedly declined, suggesting Europe’s largest economy is still struggling to overcome a manufacturing slump and fend off recession
  • India’s central bank defied expectations for an interest rate cut, keeping borrowing costs unchanged to assess the effect of its policy after five reductions this year
  • Chinese officials are in “close contact” with U.S. counterparts on trade negotiations, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said, while reiterating that tariffs should be reduced proportionately as part of a phase-one accord
  • Adrian Lee & Partners, among the largest active currency management firms with over $14 billion in assets, announced Wednesday the launch of a Global Macro Alpha Fund, which will invest in equities and fixed-income alongside currencies at a time when historically-low levels of volatility are making it difficult for some in the industry to make profits from foreign exchange

Asian equity markets were mostly positive as they took their cue from global peers after the trade mood flip-flopped once again to a more positive tone yesterday. ASX 200 (+1.2%) was led by outperformance in the tech and energy sectors amid the trade optimism and recent 4% surge in crude prices, with banks also welcoming the RBNZ’s increased capital requirements as some now expect a lower impact than they had previously anticipated. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) was underpinned by recent currency moves and with Japan set for a multi-trillion stimulus package, as well as talks with South Korea this month to address the trade spat. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) were also lifted on the trade hopes and following the announcement of measures to support the Hong Kong economy, but with gains capped given the lack of actual meaningful breakthrough on the trade front and amid continued PBoC liquidity inaction. Finally, 10yr JGB were initially lower on spill-over selling from USTs and as demand was sapped by the gains across equities, although prices were later rebounded which was helped after the results of the 30yr JGB auction showed slight improvements across all metrics.

Top Asian News

  • Japan’s Abe Says Stimulus Opens Path to Future Growth
  • India Central Bank Surprises With Pause as Inflation Spikes
  • Hedge Fund Sends Letter to Korea Lawmakers on Stock Value Boost

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%) are higher as the market maintains a positive risk tone as it awaits further news on the US/China trade front and the outcome of today’s OPEC & JMMC meetings. The FTSE 100 (-0.1%) is again the laggard, amid a firmer Pound. Elsewhere, the CAC 40 (+0.4%) is holding up well despite France being hit by nationwide strikes, as workers across a range of professions protest French President Macron’s proposed pension reforms. Subsequently, a walk out by air traffic controllers has however resulted in some airlines being hit; Air France (-1.0%) said it was axing 30% of internal flights and 15% of short-haul international routes and easyJet (-0.8%) reportedly cancelled 223 domestic and short-haul international flights and warned that others risk being delayed, although yesterday’s approximate 4% rally in crude oil prices is also likely weighing on airlines in general – other names including IAG (-1.1%) and Deutsche Lufthansa (-1.2%) are also lower. Elsewhere, luxury names including Hermes (+1.6%) and Swatch Group (+1.6%) are on the front foot after Kering (+1.6%) reportedly held explanatory talks with Moncler (+9.2%) regarding a potential combination, which would mark continued consolidation within the sector following LVMH’s (+0.9%) buyout of Tiffany & Co. last month. Sectors are mostly in the green, barring Tech (unch.), Materials (unch.) and Telecoms (-0.1%), the latter weighed by continued underperformance in Orange (-0.7%), with the Co. still suffering following yesterday’s disappointing dividend outlook. In terms of other individual movers; Novartis (+0.7%) shares are underpinned by the news that around 90 innovative new molecular entities are emerging from the Co.’s institutes for BioMed research. Elsewhere, Fiat Chrysler (-0.9%) shares are under pressure after reports that the Co. is in talks with Italian tax authorities regarding an audit, which added that the Co. may be liable for up to USD 1.5bln in “exit tax”. Metro Bank (+0.6%) shares are supported following the resignation of its CEO Donaldson, who will be replaced by Frumkin on an interim basis. Finally, negative broker moves for Siemens (-0.7%), Berkley Group (-0.6%), Vinci (-0.5%) and Tullow Oil (-0.2%) weighs on their shares.

Top European News

  • Credit Suisse Wins Order Keeping Critical Report From Prosecutor
  • New CEO of U.K.’s Worst Stock of 2019 Will Have Work Cut Out
  • Surging Green-Bond Demand Starts Tempting East Europe Borrowers
  • Telecom Stocks Drop as Italian Finance Probe, Orange Weigh

In FX, sterling remains on a firmer footing in early EU trade, with the latest poll (Savana/ComRes) showing the market-friendly Conservatives maintaining its lead over Labour vs. the prior survey as election day looms. Aside from that, little pertinent news flow thus far to influence price action. GBP/USD extends gains above 1.3100 before hitting a wall just under the 1.3150 mark, ahead of resistance in the form of a Fib level at 1.3168 followed by 1.3185. Meanwhile, the EUR derives support from a marginally softer USD and largely side-lined a slump (and significant miss) in German industrial orders, albeit the country’s construction PMI indicated a decent rebound. EUR/USD continues to eke modest gains to session highs just under the 1.1100 mark (1.1078-93 intraday range thus far), with hefty options eyeing today’s NY cut – EUR 1.0bln between 1.1090-1.1100 and EUR 2.4bln around 1.1110-25.

  • NZD, AUD, CAD – Mixed trade down under with the Kiwi buoyed by the RBNZ’s attempt to bulletproof its financial system via a capital requirement hike in order to withstand economic volatility. The Central Bank also gave lenders an extra two years to raise the required capital and flexibility on how they raise it. NZD/USD remains underpinned but has subsided a bulk of its overnight gains with the pair still in the green but back below its 200 DMA (~0.6540), having hit resistance around 0.6562-65. Meanwhile, the Aussie remains lacklustre on the back of further sub-par data, this time in the form of retail sales and trade balance, with the former printing flat and the latter a smaller surplus than had hoped. AUD/USD remains in the red and closer to the bottom of the current intraday band (0.6855-31) with the pair’s 100 and 50 DMAs (0.6814 and 0.6811 respectively) in the way of the psychological 0.6800. Elsewhere, the CAD remains modestly firmer in the aftermath of yesterday’s BoC hawkish hold and upbeat view on the economy, although traders will be eyeing BoC’s Lane on the docket later today (1245GMT) who is likely to speak on the economy. USD/CAD remains sub-1.3200 having touched a base around 1.3180.
  • DXY, JPY – The broad Dollar and Index remain under pressure given the recent string of downbeat data and ahead of the monthly US jobs report tomorrow. DXY manages to stay afloat above 97.50 (just about) having clocked in a current range of 97.49-60 with little in terms of scheduled data/speakers to influence price action. Finally, USD/JPY is relatively flat and just a whisker away from the 109.00 mark, albeit above its 200 DMA at 108.87, with USD 1.4bln in options set to expire around 109.00-15.

In commodities, crude markets eke mild gains as the complex consolidates following yesterday’s strong price action and with participants cautious as they await the outcome of today’s JMMC and OPEC meetings; the former has already begun, while the latter is scheduled to begin at 14:00 GMT. Tomorrow OPEC+ will meet and the final decision on the cartels production cuts will be made. Sources this morning suggested that OPEC+ are to discuss deeper oil output cuts of more than 400k BPD as the main scenario, news which triggered some fleeting upside in crude markets and something which has been alluded to by the Iraqi oil minister on multiple occasions in recent days. This contrasts somewhat with the reported consensus amongst OPEC minister yesterday that a deeper cut will “be harder to pull off this time”. Russian Oil Minister Novak has so far declined to reveal the country’s stance for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, but the country is expected to resist any push for further cuts; “Russia’s reluctance to deepen the cuts at the risk of compromising its market share and undermining the predictability of its oil rent is now well-known,” said Aperio Intelligence, adding “Russia’s strategy will be to seek to preserve the status quo without either overplaying its hand or overreaching”. Moreover, the country is also pushing to have its condensate output to become exempt from its quota, a request which may prove contentious, especially with Iranian Energy Minister stating that condensates of gas in the OPEC quota system is not a OPEC discussion. In terms of other crude specific news flow; the latest Platts Oil Survey revealed that OPEC pumped 29.65mln BPD of crude in November, with 11 quota members achieving cut compliance of 145%. The survey found that Iraq and Nigeria are still supplying in excess of the cap but are moving closer to compliance. Poor compliance by these members is a point of frustrations for the Saudis; just yesterday, it was reported that the Saudis are threatening to increase production back to its quota level, rather than reducing production by more than is required, due to growing frustration with those not complying with the existing OPEC cut agreement. Thus far, the Saudi’s have shouldered the bulk of the cuts, with recent analysis suggesting that without the Saudi’s overcompliance, OPEC+ compliance would be just 70%. On a different note, Goldman and Barclays provided some updates oil market forecasts; Goldman expects a Brent-WTI differential of USD 4.50/bbl in 2020, from the YTD levels of close to USD 7.0/bbl, while Barclays forecasts Brent to average USD 62/bbl and WTI to average USD 57/bbl for Q4 2019 and 2020. Moving over to metals; gold is slightly lower, amid a lack of demand for havens, but is relatively rangebound about the USD 1480/oz level. Meanwhile, positive risk tone has underpinned copper, which has this morning managed to eclipse yesterday’s USD 2.6655/lbs high, albeit only slightly.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -33.5%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 213,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.66m, prior 1.64m
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $48.5b deficit, prior $52.5b deficit
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 0.3%, prior -0.6%
  • 10am: Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior -0.1%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.8%; Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 1.2%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We are living in a pre-December 15th world where one headline or tweet on trade has the ability to turn a good day into a bad one and visa-versa. The same story has the ability to wipe or add hundreds of billions (even trillions) from/to the value of global financial assets. That’s what we’re dealing with at the moment.

Indeed it was another see-saw day for markets yesterday as investors took heart from a Bloomberg report that said the US and China were moving closer towards a trade deal, even amidst the tougher rhetoric between the two sides over non-trade issues in recent days. So carrying on the theme, a couple of journalists writing this story basically helped add around $561 billion to global equity markets yesterday given the market cap of global equities.

Citing “people familiar with the talks”, the article said that the US negotiators thought a phase-one deal would be finished before December 15, when US tariffs on China are scheduled to increase, and that President Trump’s comments the previous day that a deal could wait until after the US election next year shouldn’t be taken as an indication the talks were stalling. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said on whether the trade talks can be finished this year that “it depends. China’s stance is very clear. There is hope, as long as it is based on mutual respect and equal consultations.” Elsewhere, Mr Trump has now said that talks with China are going very well before adding, “We will make a lot of progress.” Overnight, CNBC also reported, citing people familiar with the talks, that President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who helped bring the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement to fruition, has increased his direct involvement in the negotiations with China over the past two weeks.

The situation remains highly changeable, but markets nevertheless rallied with the S&P 500 up +0.63% to end a run of 3 successive declines. Trade-sensitive stocks led the advance, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up +1.55%, its strongest performance in over a week, while the NASDAQ (+0.54%) and the Dow Jones (+0.53%) also closed higher. Energy stocks were the strongest performers among US equities thanks to oil’s advance, with WTI (+3.98%) and Brent Crude (+3.60%) experiencing their best day since the aftermath of the Saudi drone strike in September that saw Brent rally +14.61% in a single session. The move was partially driven by expectations that OPEC will announce an expanded cut to output at today’s meeting, plus US inventories later in the day showed a larger-than-expected drawdown. It was a similar bullish equity story in Europe, with the STOXX 600 up +1.18% to end a run of 4 successive moves lower.

With the risk-on attitude, sovereign bonds sold off on both sides of the Atlantic, with 10yr Treasuries +5.5bps to 1.771%, while the 2s10s curve steepened by +2.1bps.Canadian bonds were the worst performer, +9.5bps after the Bank of Canada’s decision (more on which below), while in Europe 10yr Bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+3.7 bps) and Gilts (+7.2bps) all lost ground. Higher rates helped bank stocks however, with the S&P 500 banks industry group +1.31% in its best performance for a month, while the STOXX Banks index in Europe was also up +2.08%.

In overnight news, Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe announced a total stimulus package amounting to JPY 26tn (c. $239 bn) spread over the coming years to support the economy. Remember that without a package fiscal would be tightening with tax increases. The total is perhaps bigger than expected but the fresh fiscal measures are not. Of the total, JPY 13.2 tn would be fiscal measures, according to a draft stimulus document seen by Bloomberg. Despite the big headline figure, the initial reaction to the package has been muted given that the headline stimulus figure for such announcements in Japan are typically inflated with promised loans and private-sector assistance and as details indicated that the actual central government spending is just JPY 7.6tn (per Bloomberg). Yields on 10y JGBs are up +1.3bps to -0.045%.

Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Nikkei (+0.79%), Hang Seng (+0.36%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.41%) all up. The Kospi is down -0.45%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat while the yield on 10y USTs is down -1.6bps.

In other positive news for trade, the House Democrats said overnight that a deal on the stalled U.S.-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement is within reach and urged Mexico to accept a compromise on labor-rights enforcement. Mexico’s top trade negotiator, Jesus Seade, met yesterday in Washington with his US counterpart, Robert Lighthizer, in an attempt to resolve final details and they are again going to meet today. Elsewhere, in France, unions representing a broad sweep of workers across the country are going on an indefinite “greve,” or strike, starting today in opposition of Prime Minster Macron’s plan for an overhaul of the pension system. So one to watch.

Bloomberg also reported overnight that Elizabeth Warren is drafting a bill that would call on regulators to retroactively review about two decades of “mega mergers” and ban such deals going forward. According to a draft of the bill reviewed by Bloomberg, the proposal would expand antitrust law beyond the so-called consumer welfare standard to also consider the impact on entrepreneurs, innovation, privacy and workers.

Back to yesterday, and the main data releases were the final services and composite PMIs for November from around the world. In terms of the numbers, the Euro Area composite PMI was revised up to 50.6 (vs. flash 50.3), although this strength was somewhat dependent on the country, with Germany revised up to 49.4 (vs. 49.2 flash) while France was revised down to 52.1 (vs. 52.7 flash). In the periphery, where we didn’t have the flash readings as a guide, Italy’s composite PMI fell into contractionary territory at 49.6, its lowest level in 7 months, while Spain saw an increase to 51.9, a 3-month high. On the services PMI for the Euro Area, this was also revised up, now at 51.9 (vs. 51.5 flash).

Turning to the US, and the non-manufacturing ISM index for November fell to 53.9 (vs. 54.5 expected). In a more promising sign, the employment component rose to a 4-month high of 55.5, but this was a contrast to the more negative message from the ADP report of private payrolls, which saw the weakest employment gain in 6 months, at just +67k (vs. +135k expected).

Here in the UK, with just one week now until the general election, sterling was the strongest performing G10 currency for the second day running, up +0.85% against the dollar at its highest level since May. In fact against the euro, sterling was at its highest level since May 2017, way back when the country was in the midst of the last general election campaign. In recent weeks, sterling has been supported by investor hopes that a Conservative majority at the election will support a smooth ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament, taking away some of the short-term uncertainty over the Brexit process. The sole poll yesterday came last night and showed a 10pt lead for the Tories – unchanged from the previous poll and in-line with the poll of polls. Sterling was also helped by the PMI revisions, with the composite PMI revised up to 49.3 (vs. flash 48.5).

The Canadian dollar took 2nd place to sterling yesterday, up +0.73% against the US dollar after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged yesterday at 1.75%. Although in line with expectations, the market took the message to be somewhat hawkish, with the statement from the BoC saying that there was “nascent evidence that the global economy is stabilising”. Looking forward, they said that future decisions would “be guided by the Bank’s continuing assessment of the adverse impact of trade conflicts against the sources of resilience in the Canadian economy”.

Elsewhere, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to the OECD arguing against unilateral digital services taxes like France’s recent measure. This follows Friday’s report from the USTR which said that the French proposal is discriminatory against US firms. Mnuchin’s letter pushed for multilateral measures via the OECD. For more on the OECD plans see our report on the future of corporate taxes from a few weeks back here .

To the day ahead now, and we’ve got a number of data releases, starting this morning with German factory orders for October, along with the country’s construction PMI for November. We’ll also get the Euro Area’s retail sales figures for October, as well as the final GDP and employment readings for Q3. Then from the US, there’s the October trade balance and factory orders data, along with the final reading for October durable goods orders and non-defence capital goods orders. Finally, there’ll be the weekly initial jobless claims, and from Canada October’s international merchandise trade. In terms of central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Makhlouf, while the Fed’s Quarles will be testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on supervision and regulation.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.75 POINTS OR 0.74%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 154.48 POINTS OR 0.59%   /The Nikkei closed UP 164.86 POINTS OR 0.71%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1 .14%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0413 /Oil UP TO 58.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.51 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0413 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0420 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

Just to make sure that we do not forget:  China repeats for the nth time that the USA must reduce tariffs for phase one of the trade deal to go ahead.

(zerohedge)

China Repeats US Must Reduce Tariffs For “Phase One” Trade Deal

Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng confirmed to reporters on Thursday what the Global Times had already leaked previously, namely that tariffs must be reduced by the US to reach a phase one trade deal, reported Reuters.

“The Chinese side believes that if the two sides reach a phase one deal, tariffs should be lowered accordingly,” Feng told reporters.

His comments were a reiteration of Beijing’s hard stance of tariff rollbacks in the last month or no phase one trade deal. Feng said both trade teams are in communication, but didn’t say if the trade talks were going well.

Completion of a phase one deal was expected last month before the next round of US tariffs kick in on Dec. 15. The latest comments coming from Beijing and the Trump administration suggests the prospects of an interim deal might be pushed out to sometime in 2020.

On Tuesday, President Trump said a trade deal with China could occur after the 2020 election.

“In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal, but they want to make a deal now and we will see whether or not the deal is going to be right,” Trump said.

Then on Wednesday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokeswoman Hua Chunying said: “We do not set a deadline for reaching an agreement or not.”

“Our attitude has always been clear, that is, consultations must be based on equality and mutual respect, and that the outcome must be mutually beneficial and acceptable to both sides,” Chunying said. “We hope that some people in the U.S. will earnestly heed the call of its people.”

Despite both trade teams at a standstill over “core issues of concern,” the recent Hong Kong and Uighur bill has made the probabilities of an interim deal less likely in 2019, as tensions between both countries continue to escalate.

CNBC’s Eunice Yoon on Wednesday tweeted:

“My sources here say #China thought it had an agreement in principle on tariff rollback in early Nov but President Trump backed away from it. So unclear how “close” two sides really are. 🤔 @business U.S., China Move Closer to #Trade Deal Despite Harsh Rhetoric.”

Then Fox Bussiness released a headline on Wednesday describing how both trade teams haven’t spoken in eight days, which contradicts Trump’s comments earlier in the week that he’s been in constant contact.

None of this mattered to algos who BTFD based on an anonymous report from Bloomberg which said nothing new but merely sparked optimism that a deal may happen even though we are now just 10 days away from the Dec 15 tariff deadline.

Meanwhile, Trump rolling back tariffs for an interim deal without addressing core intellectual property and technology transfer issues is likely not going to happen, which means the trade war could easily escalate rapidly in just 11 days.

END
China
For the first time ever, A China IPO flopped
(zerohedge)

For First Time Since 2012, A China IPO Flopped…

On Wednesday, a Chinese IPO closed below its listing price for the first time since 2012, signaling that the public’s former unquestionable love affair with risk and equities is fading as the economy continues to decelerate,.

  • LUOYANG JALON MICRO-NANO NEW MATERIALS SAYS TRADING IN SHARES TO DEBUT ON DEC 4 IN SHANGHAI

Luoyang Jianlong Micro-Nano New Materials shares debuted on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Wednesday. The stock immediately dropped 7% in the first hour of trading, closing down 2% on the session.

Luoyang Jianlong’s disastrous IPO debut was the first time a mainland Chinese stock closed below its listing price since 2012. The last time this happened, Haixin Foods plunged 8% below its first day listing price in 4Q12.

“Luoyang Jianlong’s debut flop sends a clear signal to the market that buying into IPOs has become more and more risky,” said Jiang Liangqing, a money manager at Ruisen Capital Management in Beijing.

“It will become more difficult for companies to raise money from the capital market as the deteriorating performances of new listings will deter investors,” he said. “On the other hand, it shows that things are becoming increasingly market-driven.”

For at least a decade, China’s IPO market has been one of the strongest in the world, with every newly public stock closing at or near limit-up. Though now it seems large-cap IPOs are showing signs of waning interest from investors as the economy continues to decelerate through year-end, and likely to continue slowing into 1H20. To counter the IPO market bust, China has tried to calm markets by increasing domestic firms with more access to credit to keep equity markets humming along.

State-run media outlets have published frontpage stories telling investors not to worry about the IPO market, and enough liquidity will be provided through 2020.

China’s economy is growing at the weakest point in nearly three decades. A massive turn up in growth in China and across the world is unlikely in early 2020, mostly due to China’s credit impulse faltering. 

We warned back in September that the global IPO market was going bust, mostly due to the synchronized global slowdown that has deterred investors from buying IPO shares in companies that don’t make money ahead of a recession.

The rebellion against unicorn IPOs in the US in 2019 shows that investors have lost interest in speculative growth companies.  Some of the high-profile US IPO flops this year have been Uber and Lyft. In September, the Peloton IPO plunged 7% below its offering price, making it the third-worst trading debut for a large US IPO since 2008.

end
China
Another record in China as we witness a huge number of bond defaults in 2019
(zerohedge)

China Set To Make History With Record Number Of Bond Defaults In 2019

While China is bracing for what may be a historic D-Day event on December 9, when the “unprecedented” default of state-owned, commodity-trading conglomerate Tewoo with $38 billion in assets may take place, it has already been a banner year for Chinese bankruptcies.

According to Bloomberg data, China is set to hit another dismal milestone in 2019 when a record amount of onshore bonds are set to default, confirming that something is indeed cracking in China’s financial system and “testing the government’s ability to keep financial markets stable as the economy slows and companies struggle to cope with unprecedented levels of debt.”

After a brief lull in the third quarter, a burst of at least 15 new defaults since the start of November have sent the year’s total to 120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion), and set to eclipse the 121.9 billion yuan annual record in 2018.

The good news is that this number still represents a tiny fraction of China’s $4.4 trillion onshore corporate bond market; the bad news is that the rapidly rising number is approaching a tipping point that could unleash a default cascade, and in the process fueling concerns of potential contagion as investors struggle to gauge which companies have Beijing’s support. As Bloomberg notes, policy makers have been walking a tightrope as they try to roll back the implicit guarantees that have long distorted Chinese debt markets, without dragging down an economy already weakened by the trade war and tepid global growth.

“The authorities have found it hard to rescue all the companies,” said Wang Ying, a Shanghai-based analyst at Fitch Ratings, perhaps envisioning at least two banks that have experienced depositor runs in the month of November in the aftermath of an unprecedented succession of bank failures earlier in the year.

It’s not just banks however: this year’s debt woes have spread to a broad array of industries, from property developers and steelmakers to new-energy firms and software makers. The types of borrowers facing repayment difficulties has also expanded from private companies and local state-run firms to business arms of universities, an obscure and loosely regulated corner of China’s corporate world.

China’s two latest defaults involved just such a company; on Monday Peking University Founder Group shocked investors after failing to repay a 2 billion yuan bond. The same day, Tunghsu Optoelectronic Technology, a maker of photoelectric display components, also failed to deliver early repayment on both interest and principal for a 1.7 billion yuan note.

Meanwhile, as we reported last week, the signs of stress have ominously spread to China’s offshore market, which has so far been more insulated from defaults: next week, Tewoo Group, a Fortune 500 company and major commodities trader from the northern city of Tianjin, is set to become the most high profile state-owned enterprise to default in the dollar bond market in more than two decades.

The company has recently offered a debt restructuring plan that entails deep losses for investors or a swap for new bonds with significantly lower returns, the first of its kind for an offshore SOE issuer. On December 9, Tweoo bondholders need to decide if they accept a distressed exchange offer on a $300 millionbond that is likely to default on Dec. 16.

Still, despite the drumbeat of bad news, analysts remain cheerful and claim the threat of a systemic debt crisis in China remains distant.

“I don’t think it is a tipping point,” Bank of Singapore managing director Todd Schubert said. “China is a big market with a lot of issuers. In a functioning capital market, one would naturally expect some defaults.”

And while China is set to make a new record in the amount of default, the lack of a substantial increase from last year means that China’s onshore default rate is expected to remain the same as last year’s 0.5%, according to S&P.

Not that Beijing has much of a choice of course: faced with a non-financial corporate debt pile that swelled to a record 165% of GDP year, Chinese policy makers are selectively allowing more bond failures in part to impose increased discipline on borrowers and investors. But not too much discipline, as the alternative could be a panic across the country’s bond market.

“Rising defaults should be a natural part of credit-market cycle,” said Anne Zhang, head of Asia fixed income for JPMorgan Private Bank. “It is long-term positive for any market to develop a good pricing mechanism for risks.”

The problem is that for Beijing it still remains a highly selective process, picking winners and losers at will; to be sure, the process would be less rocky for investors if policymakers could improve the transparency around defaults, according to Cindy Huang, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings.

“The regulators’ intention is to reduce moral hazard” while at the same time ensuring any defaults “won’t undermine socioeconomic stability or trigger systemic risks,” said Ivan Chung, head of greater China credit research and analysis at Moody’s, adding that whereas state support may be available for companies engaged in social welfare projects, for those that are more commercial in nature, “government support may not be so forthcoming.”

“So far, defaults and recovery can be unpredictable,” Huang said. “This will hinder market confidence and weaken the healthy development of China’s credit market.”

Which is why when it comes to Chinese corporate defaults, there is just one certainty looking ahead: there will be many more of them. In fact, Moody’s expects 40-50 new defaults in 2020, up from 35 this year. Considering that China is set to post its first sub-6% GDP growth year in history in 2020, this will prove an overly optimistic forecast.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

The floodgates are now open as German banks are starting to charge retail customers for deposits

(zerohedge)

“Floodgates Are Open” – German Banks Start Charging Retail Savers

It has been over 7 years since the European Central Bank’s key deposit facility rate was positive, and just a few weeks ago it was lowered to a record low of -50bps.

Source: Bloomberg

And during that time, European bank stocks have suffered greatly…

 

Source: Bloomberg

As Cornelius Riese, co-CEO of Frankfurt-based DZ Bank A.G. (Germany’s second-largest by assets), observed, negative rates indeed “have a huge impact on banks.” Riese ventured to offer some gentle criticism of Draghi & Co.’s grand policy experiment:

“Maybe at the end of the story, in three to five years, we will notice it was a historical mistake.”

Well, it appears we are about to reach the vinegar strokes of that ‘historical mistake’, as Bloomberg reports, German banks are breaking the last taboo: Charging retail clients for their savings starting with very first euro in the their accounts.

While many banks have been passing on negative rates to clients for some time, they have typically only done so for deposits of 100,000 euros ($111,000) or more. That is changing, with one small lender, Volksbank Raiffeisenbank Fuerstenfeldbruck, a regional bank close to Munich, planning to impose a rate of minus 0.5% to all savings in certain new accounts.

Another bank, Kreissparkasse Stendal, in the east of the country, has a similar policy for clients who have no other relationship with the bank; and a third, Frankfurter Volksbank, one of the country’s largest cooperative lenders, is considering going even further and charging some new customers 0.55% for all their deposits is considering an even higher charge.

“The floodgates are open,” said Friedrich Heinemann, who heads the department on Corporate Taxation and Public Finance at the ZEW economic research institute in Mannheim.

“We will soon see a chain reaction. Banks that do not follow with negative interest rates would be flooded with liquidity.”

It appears that European banks are coming around to the fact – and preparing for it – that negative rates are here to stay (especially under Lagarde who has already opined that there is nothing wrong with negative rates).

Bank CEOs across Europe have expressed their anger at the ECB’s policy over the last few months.

The ECB’s imposition of negative interest rates have created an “absurd situation” in which banks don’t want to hold deposits, rages UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, arguing that this policy is hurting social systems and savings rates.

Oswald Gruebel, who served as Credit Suisse CEO from 2004 to 2007 and as UBS Group AG’s top executive from 2009 to 2011, has slammed ECB policy in an interview with Swiss newspaper NZZ am Sonntag.

“Negative interest rates are crazy. That means money is not worth anything anymore,” Gruebel exclaimed.

“As long as we have negative interest rates, the financial industry will continue to shrink.”

And finally, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing warned that more monetary easing by the ECB, as widely expected next week, will have “grave side effects” for a region that has already lived with negative interest rates for half a decade.

“In the long run, negative rates ruin the financial system.”

The German savings rate was around 10% in 2017, almost twice the euro-area average, but one wonders what will happen now that even mom-and-pop will have to pay to leave their spare cash in ‘safe-keeping’. Will deposit levels tumble in favor of the mattress? Or, as some have suggested, gold will get a bid as a costless way of storing wealth

END

UK

The Conservatives are gaining as it looks like a majority government and then Brexit can proceed

(zerohedge)

Pound Climbs To 2-Year High As Traders Jump On Pre-Election Rally

Moving higher for a fifth straight session, the pound climbed to fresh cycle highs on Thursday after the London open, as expectations for the return of a Tory majority after next week’s snap vote have helped bolster the British currency, which has risen 9% off its lows.

The pound’s torrid pre-election rally has brought the currency to its highest level vs the dollar in more than 7 months, and its strongest level vs. the euro in 2 years.

Cable climbed another 0.2% on Thursday to trade above $1.31 for the first time since May 7. If it holds its gains until the end of the session, it will mark the pound’s longest winning streak (five sessions) since June.

As the FT explains, a Conservative majority is the more market-friendly outcome because it would promote greater certainty: PM Johnson would finally be able to push through his version of the withdrawal agreement negotiated with the EU27, allowing the UK to officially begin the process of separating from the EU, and initiating the next round of negotiations on the nature of the trade deal.

“Rarely have voters been asked to pass judgment at such a critical time for the economy and for financial markets,” Ruth Gregory, a senior economist at Capital Economics, told the FT.

But Johnson’s pledge not to extend the Brexit transition period beyond the end of next year could create problems for sterling bulls down the line.

After the currency’s initial rally, attention would shift “very, very quickly,” Willem Klijnstra, currency analyst at Legal & General Investment Management, told the FT. His firm has been neutral on its sterling exposure since September. “If we do get a Conservative win then we are straight back to Brexit.”

Still, plenty of traders wary of an election upset are hedging their positions with out-of-the-money dollar calls, as one strategist told Bloomberg.

“The central case seems to be a comfortable Tory win that could keep the GBP/USD supported, moving toward $1.34 and higher,” said Valentin Marinov, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Credit Agricole SA. “Investors are hedging their bets ahead of the vote, exploiting the relative cheapness of out-of-the-money dollar calls.”

END
FRANCE
FRANCE IN A MESS AS THE COUNTRY IS PARALYZED BY THE LARGEST GENERAL STRIKE IN  DECADES
(ZEROHEDGE)

France Paralyzed By Largest General Strike In Decades

In what appears to be the biggest disruption to French society since the gilets jaunes demonstrators nearly torched Paris last year, public workers across the country stayed home on Thursday, immobilizing public transit across the country as the first general strike in more than 20 years began.

The walkout was called by unions angry at President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reforms (not unlike how a planned – then scrapped – gas tax hike sparked the giles jaunes).

On the fist day of the strike, parts of Paris resembled a ghost town during what are typically busy morning-commute hours. Roads were empty, and train stations were deserted, according to the Times of London.

The biggest industrial action of Macron’s tenure is, so far, staggering in scale: 50% of French teachers are off work, nine out of ten trains were cancelled and eleven of the fourteen underground lines in Paris are closed. A total of 245 separate demonstrations have been announced across France as students, firefighters, healthcare workers and others joining in. Strikes at Air France forced a wave of flight cancellations, leaving thousands of travelers scrambling for a workaround. Air France cancelled 30% of its domestic flights and 10% of international short- and medium-haul flights on Thursday, RT reports.

Millions of workers are staying home.

In Paris, some resorted to bikes, skateboards or walking in the bitter cold as 90% of the trains in the country were closed.

Ben McPartland@McPBen

Workers in Paris take to bikes, scooters and even skateboards to get to the office this mornin. And many more walking on a bitterly cold day. Big police presence at Gare Du Nord for protest later on Thursday.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Some joked that the strike had made Paris into a much more ‘eco-friendly’ city. Which is a great way of looking at the situation for thousands of progressives who have also joined in the climate action strikes.

Roman Iakymchuk@riakymch

Today is very quiet and ecological city (less cars and more bikes) due to the huge strike

The strike is expected to continue until Monday as the unions and Macron duke it out over the controversial pension reforms. Paris police are deploying 6,000 riot police to do battle with demonstrators who have decided to take their yellow vests out of the closet and back into action.

Ben McPartland@McPBen

Huge police presence at Gare de l’Est in Paris where unions are congregating ahead of the march to Place de la Nation this afternoon. They fear a violent minority of extremists will try to hijack the demo.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Many of France’s most iconic tourist spots in Paris were forced to shut their doors because of the strikes. The Eiffel Tower and the Orsay museum remained closed on Thursday due to staff shortages, while the Louvre, the Pompidou Center and other museums were mostly closed as well (though some said certain exhibits would still be open).

Many noted that outside the typically packed Gare du Nord train station, there was an eerie silence, with taxi cabs lined up with their green lights on, struggling to find customers in the deserted streets.

The abundance of first-time cyclists created some confusion during the morning commute.

Ben McPartland@McPBen

Haven’t seen so many cyclists in Paris since…. well the last Metro strike back in September. Two Parisian cyclists just crash into one another in front of me. “Sorry Im not used to this,” says the elderly man. “Me neither,” said the young woman. “We are all in the same mess”

Embedded video

Of more immediate concern for Macron, dozens of gilet jaunes protesters are blocking fuel depots in the south and near the city of Orleans, leaving more than 200 petrol stations without fuel on Thursday, while another 400 are rapidly nearing the last of their inventory. These blockades could bring the country to its knees (since society still needs oil and refined petroleum products to function, despite what the Green New Deal supporters want), and might be the deciding factor that forces Macron to scrap his planned austerity ‘reforms’.

In addition to public transit, protesters blocked major thoroughfares in some parts of the country.

Thomas Diquattro@ThomasDiquattro

À Boulogne, un des rond-points de Capécure partiellement bloqué par un feu. Les manifestants ont commencé dès 3h du matin. Ça circule normalement pour les camions et voitures.

Embedded video

1

Protesters have now been demonstrating against the austerity measures imposed by Macron’s “Liberal” government for more than a year. Even as the EU threatens to reprimand Macron for overspending, his own people are threatening to oust him at the halfway point of his first term, making him the latest in a string of prime ministers who, after being elected with a popular mandate, swiftly lost favor with the people of France.

RT has a live stream in central Paris where police have gathered to prepare for a clash with protesters.

RT

@RT_com

: Massive union strike in https://on.rt.com/a6l0 https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1LyxBLyOgkrGN 

General strike in Paris 2019

RT @RT_com

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/USA

The USA is thinking that they might block Russia from using the SWIFT system for payment. The Russian president states that this would be an act of war

we will keep you updated on this..

(zerohedge)

Blocking SWIFT Access Would Be “Declaration Of War”: Russia Warns Against US ‘Nuclear Option’

Last year during the height of controversy over the Kerch Strait incident, while two dozen Ukrainian sailors were still being held by Russia, Washington’s special envoy to Ukraine at the time, Kurt Volker, floated the possibility of Washington blocking Russian banks from SWIFT. He told Voice of America at the time that it was considered “a nuclear option” and it would have huge costs which would even inadvertently impact US allies.

“People refer to it as a nuclear option. It would have costs for everybody involved,” he said. “Big costs for Russia, but big costs for allies as well. Ultimately, we have to keep it on the table as a possibility because we just can’t continue to see Russia launch further steps of aggression in its neighborhood like this.”

No doubt it’s still in Washington’s playbook as a ‘nuclear option’ long after the Kerch Strait incident was diffused with an historic prisoner swap, and the Kremlin has taken note.

 

Russia’s Central Bank, via Wiki Commons.

On Thursday Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev took Washington to task over the prior warning, telling reporters that Moscow is well aware of discussions to take sanctions further, even cutting off the country’s access to some 11,000 banks and financial institutions in over 200 countries by blocking SWIFT. This is exactly what the Trump White House did vis-à-vis Iran months after it pulled out of the 2015 JCPOA.

Medvedev said such far-reaching action would be tantamount to a declaration of war. According to statements reported in Russian media:

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Medvedev recalled the West once seriously considered the option, and Moscow is aware of it.

“This would in fact be a declaration of war, but nevertheless it was discussed,” the Russian prime minister said, adding that this is one of the reasons why the government is looking into ways to protect the Russian part of the internet.

Though unlikely barring further major escalation between the US and Russia, the possibility is so much on the Kremlin’s radar because it was also threatened in 2015 at the height of tensions over the war in eastern Ukraine.

At that time, citing threatened financial sanctions “from the West” — specifically impacting access to the prime global interbank system, Medvedev let it be known that Russia’s response would be “without limits”.

“We’ll watch developments and if such decisions are made, I want to note that our economic reaction and generally any other reaction will be without limits,” he said in those prior comments. Indeed the unforeseen consequences of such a major global power (and energy provider to much of Europe and now even China) being suddenly isolated to that extent along with its fierce reaction, would likely create a global financial Armageddon and uncontrollable ripple effect.

Meanwhile Russia has over the past months flirted with the possibility of joining INSTEX  the special purpose vehicle set up by Europe to facilitate trade with Iran  and has thrown its political weight behind the project as it gains momentum with more EU countries joining in the past days.

6.Global Issues

SWEDEN

Just awful: elderly residents in Stockholm are kicked out of apartments to make way for migrants

(courtesy Watson/Summitt News)

Stockholm: Elderly Residents Kicked Out Of Apartments To Make Way For Migrants

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Dozens of elderly residents were forced to leave their apartments in an area of Stockholm after the block was closed, only to be re-opened again for migrants to replace them.

Residents at Dianagården were told they would have to leave because the toilets in the facility were 5cm too small to comply with regulations.

 

However, soon after the 48 apartments were emptied, they were filled with newly arrived migrants.

“It was later revealed that politicians planned that immigrants would instead move into the premises,” reports Fria Tider.

In 2015, Sweden accepted more refugees per capita than any other country, and despite worsening problems with sexual assaults, grenade attacks and violent crime, the inflow shows no sign of being seriously restricted.

A recent opinion poll found that the anti-mass migration Sweden Democrats are now the most popular party in Sweden. The Sweden Democrats would get 24.2% of the votes if an election was held today, beating the ruling Social Democrats.

Back in October, Leif Östling, former CEO of trucking company Scania, warned that Sweden is heading towards civil war due to uncontrolled mass immigration.

 

“We’ve taken in far too many people from outside. And we have. Those who come from the Middle East and Africa live in a society that we left almost a hundred years ago,” he said.

*

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Aramco goes public and raises $25.6 billion in the world’s biggest IP0

(zerohedge)

Aramco Prices IPO At Top-End Of Range: Raises Record $25.6BN In World’s Biggest IPO

In line with expectations, Saudi Aramco just priced its IPO at the high end of the targeted range, selling 3 billion shares or a 1.5% stake at 32 riyals ($8.53) per share for a total of $25.6 billion, and giving the oil giant a market valuation of $1.7 trillion, making it the world’s biggest company (surpassing Apple) thanks to the what is now the world’s biggest-ever IPO. The money raised by the state-owned producer breaks the record set by Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba in 2014, but gives the company a valuation well below the $2 trillion sought by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

According to Bloomberg, the closely watched deal which was confined to Saudi accounts over fears of the types of questions that would emerge in an international roadshow, saw a total of $119 billion in subscriptions and was 4.65x oversubscribed but that is simply laughable considering that the Saudi were forced to once again extorting its oligarch like Prince Alwaleed to invest in the IPO at the metaphorical (and perhaps literal) barrel of a gun.

The oil company will also likely exercise its 15% “green shoe”, which would allow it to issue up to 15% more shares to meet demand and could see it ultimately raise more than $29 billion.

In Riyadh’s panicked scramble to get the IPO done at any cost, local retail investors were offered loans to purchase stakes, promised bonus shares and targeted in a nationwide advertising campaign. Meanwhile, in a hilarious flashback two two years ago, wealthy Saudi families, many of whom were caught up in the crown prince’s 2017 corruption crackdown, were also pressured to invest.

 

Saudi Aramco executives have in recent weeks also tried to drum up interest from state-backed funds in the Gulf, including Abu Dhabi — which was expected to invest $1.5bn. Kuwait was also considering putting in $1bn.

To make sure the deal goes smoothly, Saudi Arabia hired almost all of Wall Street’s biggest banks to advise on the IPO that will see about 1.5% of the company sold. Some of Aramco’s bankers had advised that a more prudent approach would be to sell shares more cheaply in an effort to ensure they trade higher after their debut, a person familiar with the matter said. Clearly, they were overruled, and so the question is how far will Aramco’s price drop once it breaks for trading.

“The banks advised the client to play it safe,” the person said. “There is a risk to the lenders if the shares trade down.”

As the FT notes, the kingdom also sought to increase the company’s appeal by pledging a bumper annual $75bn dividend, which is relatively speaking, below what many of its western peers offer, changing tax and royalty rates as well as curbing long-term capital spending to help cash flows.

Despite such enticements, overseas investors have remained cautious.

 

The total amount raised -whether $26 or $29BN with the greenshoe – will be a huge disappointment to Prince Mohammed, who for the last four years pushed to raise $100 billion by selling 5% of the group in a global financial capital such as London or New York. In the end he had to satisfy himself with a quarter of this amount sold on a domestic market. Even so, the $25.6 billion total sale means the company surpassed the previous record of $25bn set by Alibaba when it went public in New York.

At $1.7tn, Saudi Aramco’s market capitalisation will still be more than that of the five next biggest oil companies combined. Still, it is worth recalling that just over a decade ago, another energy giant, China’s Petrochina, became the world’s first company to hit a $1 trillion market cap shortly after its 2007 IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

PetroChina’s market value has since plummeted to less than $140 billion, representing the largest destruction of shareholder wealth in world history. Will Aramco follow in Petrochina’s footsteps? For those who say yes, you finally have a chance to short it.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1097 UP .0004 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.88 UP 0.051 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3134   UP   0.0025  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3059 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 4 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1097 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 21.75 POINTS OR 0.74% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 154.48 POINTS OR 0.59%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,14%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 154.48 POINTS OR 0.59%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.35 POINTS OR 0.74%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  1.14% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 164.86  POINTS OR 0.71%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1476.40

silver:$16.91-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.78% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.23 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.47 DOWN 18 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.42% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.03%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.49%//UP 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,37 UP 8 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 88 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.66% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1108  UP     .0025 or 25 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.66 DOWN .172 OR YEN UP 18  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.31600 UP .0051 POUND UP 51  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 17 basis points to 1.3176

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0448    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0387  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7501 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.03%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.79 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.24 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.38 UP 27  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 50.65  OR  0.70%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 85.77 POINTS OR .65%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 1.87 POINTS 0.03%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 27.40 POINTS or 0.30%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 64.80 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.30 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.23 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    63.73  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.18 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 18 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.32//

 

 

BRENT :  63.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.81 PLUS 4 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.26..PLUS 4 BASIS PTS

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1103 ( UP 21   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.74 DOWN .087 (YEN UP 9 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.39 DOWN 25 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3154 UP 45  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7505

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.70   UP 0.01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 1 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3178 UP 15 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0448  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0404 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.29%

 

The Dow closed UP 28.01 POINTS OR 0.10%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 4.03 POINTS OR 0.05%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.52 CLOSED DOWN .28

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.887%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Dollar Dives For 5th Straight Day But Stocks Surge Despite Downbeat Trade News

The constant hubbub behind every tiny dip in stocks is simple… a trade deal is close, so remain calm…

Chinese stocks soared overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets started off solid but rolled over into the close, all lower on the week for now…

Source: Bloomberg

US Markets ended higher on the day, smashed higher in the last 30 mins after dropping on less optimistic trade headlines – this is a f**king farce now… The gamma-driven spike faded in the last few minutes…Trannies ended green thanks to the ramp

Source: Bloomberg

The day was spoiled briefly by a late-day headline at 1500ET that *U.S., CHINA REMAIN AT ODDS OVER VALUE OF FARM PURCHASES: DJ – but as the chart below shows, S&P Futs bounced dramatically off VWAP and back to the day’s highs…

WTF!!!!

Notably, despite various “trade deal is close” headline efforts, no short-squeeze was ignited…

Source: Bloomberg

While the odds of a trade deal increased again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Gains were led by Defensive stocks, not cyclicals…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX spiked briefly up to 15 intrday on the late trade headline but vol-sellers piled in after that…

 

Treasury yields were almost uniformly 2bps or so higher on the day (belly slightly underperformed +3bps). Only 2Y Yields remain lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yield reversed most if not all of Tuesday’s dive…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar fell for its 5th straight day to its lowest in a month…

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar and Stocks decoupled the last two days…

Source: Bloomberg

And as the dollar dived, cable soared to its highest in 7 months…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan jumped back above pre-Trump tantrum levels from earlier in the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin outperformed today but all major cryptos remain lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were remarkably stable today given the dollar’s continued slide…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which would have likely very much disappointed OPEC as their best efforts failed to spark any gains…

 

Finally, since “Phase One” was completed, China has notably underperformed as Europe and US have magically levitated higher…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s this…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar Are All Falling

A lack of super-exciting new trade headlines has seen bond yields rising, stocks falling, and the dollar extending its decline…

Treasury yields have been pushing higher all morning (but did start to rollover as the selling in stocks accelerated)

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds recoupling…

Source: Bloomberg

And the dollar is getting dumped for the 5th straight day…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Where’s Kudlow?!

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Although the trade deficit shrinks, the data is not good for the USA economy as both import and exports shrink which is certainly a negative to GDP.Chinese imports drop but so does exports to them

 

(zerohedge)

 

US Trade Deficit Shrinks To Smallest In 16 Months

The US trade deficit shrank to its smallest since June 2018 in October, as trade with China extended its slide with goods imports from the nation dropping to a fresh three-year low.

The overall U.S. deficit in goods and services trade narrowed to $47.2 billion in October (less then the $48.5bn expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Merchandise imports from China declined 4.8% from the prior month to $35.3 billion while exports tumbled 17% to $7.49 billion, the least in almost a year

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps most notably: U.S. OCT. SOYBEAN EXPORTS FALL 42% M/M TO $1.11 BLN

Finally, as Bloomberg notes, the report showed exports and imports both droppedand gave a hint of the impact of trade on fourth-quarter gross domestic product.

end

US Factory Orders Contract YoY For 3rd Straight Month

Having fallen for the last two months, analysts expected a modest rebound in factory orders in October (despite renewed ISM weakness) and as expected they did rise 0.3% MoM (but from a downward-revised 0.8% MoM drop in September).

On a YoY basis, factory orders dropped 1.2% (better than the 3.7% drop in September but still in the red)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 3rd straight month of annual declines (and 5th of the last 6 months).

Factory orders ex-trans rose 0.2% in Oct. after falling 0.3% the prior month.

New orders ex-defense for Oct. unchanged after falling 1.0% in Sept.

The proxy for capital spending – Capital goods non-defense ex aircraft new orders – for Oct. rose 1.1% after falling 0.5% in Sept (but lower than the initial +1.2%)

Is the bottom in?

end

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Luxury goods operation  Tiffany’s report disastrous earnings and this explains why they were eager to sell to LVMH.  The world is running out of liquidity to buy things.

(zerohedge)

Tiffany’s Disastrous Earnings Explains Company’s Eagerness To Sell To LVMH  

Tiffany & Co shares slid Thursday morning after missing Wall Street expectations for quarterly profits and sales, reported Reuters.

Net Sales in North America dropped 4% in 3Q, mostly due to a deteriorating consumer. Sales in the Asia-Pacific region were flat, crushed by a 49% drop in Hong Kong amid deepening socio-economic chaos. 

Net earnings for the company declined to $78.4 million, or about 65 cents per share, in 3Q, from $94.9 million, or 77 cents, last year.

Wall Street was betting the company would earn 85 cents per share on the quarter, mostly because of trade war optimism and the hopes for a strong US consumer. Though, the hope hasn’t translated into any meaningful pick up in growth in 2H. Net sales were flat in the quarter at $1.01 billion.

Last week, the boards of both LVMH Moët Hennessy and Tiffany approved a deal that would sell Tiffany for $16.2 billion, or at $135 per share in cash to LVMH. The transaction is expected to be completed in early 2020, explains the eagerness of Tiffany’s board to unload the company after today’s disastrous earnings.

As we’ve been reporting in recent months, a sudden pullback in spending by the consumer could ripple through the service economy, which is about 70% of GDP.

 

Already an employment downturn is at risk of becoming more profound and will likely shift consumer sentiment lower.

Ahead of recessions, consumers tend to pull back on jewelry purchases as pessimism changes spending habits.

It’s clear that Tiffany’s board knows the next recession is imminent, they’re attempting to unload the company at the peak. 

end
This could be deadly to Boeing: Regulatory delays  (FAA)
(zerohedge)

Boeing’s Letter To SEC Warns “Regulatory Delays” Could Cause It To “Halt” 737 Max Production

Shares of Boeing are mixed following a new report via Reuters detailing how the company sent a letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indicating how “significant additional regulatory requirements or delays” on the troubled 737 Max could cause it to slash or “temporarily halt production.”

  • BOEING SAYS SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS OR DELAYS ON 737 MAX RETURN TO SERVICE COULD CAUSE IT TO CUT OR TEMPORARILY HALT 737 MAX PRODUCTION – LETTER TO SEC

The letter was first viewed by Reuters, which said Boeing doesn’t “expect 737 MAX order cancellations due to the grounding of its best-selling single-aisle jet after deadly crashes to have a material impact on revenues or earnings because of the size of 737 order backlog and management’s ability to mitigate potential impacts by shifting planned customer delivery dates.”

  • BOEING SAYS DOES NOT EXPECT 737 MAX ORDER CANCELLATIONS DUE TO GROUNDING TO HAVE MATERIAL IMPACT ON REVENUES OR EARNINGS – LETTER TO SEC
  • BOEING SAYS DOES NOT EXPECT STORAGE CAPACITY TO LIMIT ABILITY TO CONTINUE 737 MAX PRODUCTION – LETTER TO SEC

And maybe the hype last month of the 737 Max potentially receiving a re-certification to return to the air via the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) by January 2020 is fake news. It seems like the 737 Max grounding could extend well into 2020.

Boeing shares were dumped then pumped, then dumped again on the news.

Despite 346 people dead in two separate 737 Max crashes in the last 13 months, Boeing’s stock continues to trade sideways.

Could Boeing be headed for disaster if 737 Max groundings persist well into 2020?

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Pelosi claims that the House will draft articles of impeachment against Trump and thus there will be hearings in the Senate. Should be worth the price of admission as the Bidens, Pelosi, Schiff, the Whistleblower will all be forced to testify

(zerohedge)

Pelosi Says House Will Draft Articles Of Impeachment Against “King” Trump

Update: In a meandering history lesson that sought to place the impeachment of President Trump in the same historical tradition as the overthrow of the divine right of kings, Nancy Pelosi announced Thursday morning that she is leaving it up to the Judiciary Committee to draft articles of impeachment.

Pelosi warned that no one is above the law, and that the president’s attempts to strongarm Ukraine in announcing an investigation into the Bidens left her “no choice” but to move ahead. So she ordered the Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, Jerry Nadler, to draft up the articles.

Notably, she didn’t address the timing, leaving it unclear whether the impeachment vote would come before Christmas, or shortly after the new year. Earlier, Trump insisted that if the Dems are going to impeach, that they “do it now, fast” and get it over with.

  • *PELOSI SAYS TIME TO ADDRESS TRUMP’S FAILURE TO EXECUTE LAW
  • *PELOSI: IN AMERICA, NOBODY IS ABOVE THE LAW
  • *PELOSI SAYS TRUMP ABUSED HIS POWER FOR PERSONAL BENEFIT
  • *PELOSI: TRUMP ACTIONS VIOLATED CONSTITUTION
  • *PELOSI SAYS TRUMP ENGAGING IN ABUSE OF POWER
  • *PELOSI DIDN’T ADDRESS TIMING OF IMPEACHMENT

Earlier, President Trump warned via tweet that an impeachment trial in the Senate will be an epic political circus, with Pelosi, Schiff and Biden all testifying if the president gets his way.

Trump wants live witnesses to defend him, and has said that he’s resigned to impeachment.

The announcement comes one day after Republican witness Jonathan Turley warned that Dems are “rushing” the process.

In response to Pelosi’s decision, White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham warned that the Dems should be “ashamed” of their decision, and that the administration is looking forward to the Senate trial.

Stephanie Grisham

@PressSec

.@SpeakerPelosi & the Democrats should be ashamed. @realDonaldTrump has done nothing but lead our country – resulting in a booming economy, more jobs & a stronger military, to name just a few of his major accomplishments. 🇺🇸 We look forward to a fair trial in the Senate.

Meanwhile, let’s try not to lose sight of what Pelosi just did:

Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸

@JackPosobiec

Nancy Pelosi just got up before the House and lied about the Judiciary hearings yesterday and then promoted the fully debunked conspiracy theory that Trump colluded with Russia and called for impeachment

* * *

Prompting speculation that she could be announcing a timeline for an impeachment vote, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is planning to deliver an update on the status of the impeachment inquiry Thursday morning at 9 am.

Pelosi will speak from the Speaker’s Balcony Hallway, the same spot from where she announced the launch of the impeachment probe back in September, roughly 71 days ago.

The statement comes as Democrats on the Judiciary Committee have been asked to stay in Washington this weekend to “prep”.

Even if she doesn’t announce plans for an imminent impeachment vote, the speaker’s remarks should at least help clarify the path forward, as Dems quietly debate whether to expand the scope of impeachment to go beyond the alleged quid pro quo with Ukraine.

 

On Wednesday, three Democratic witnesses made the case for Trump’s impeachment, while a fourth Republican witness argued that the Dems’ evidence falls well short of establishing a ‘quid pro quo’ between Trump and the Ukrainian government.

That the Dems are moving ahead shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone – after all, 16 Democratic members of the committee already voted to impeach Trump back in July.

Steve Scalise

@SteveScalise

Let’s be clear: 16 Dems on the Judiciary Committee already voted to impeach the President back in July.

Tomorrow’s hearing is an orchestrated scam against @realDonaldTrump with a pre-determined outcome.

This has been their plan since Day 1. Don’t let them tell you otherwise.

The Speaker will deliver her weekly news conference later Thursday morning; she is also scheduled to appear during a CNN town hall Thursday evening.

Watch Live below:

 end

This one is good:  A furious Scalise demands to know why Schiff was spying on Nunes by obtaining call records of calls between Nunes, Rudy Guiliani, Parnas and John Solomon

(zerohedge)

A Furious Scalise Demands To Know Why Schiff ‘Spying’ On Nunes, Journalist

Contained within a 300-page report on the Democrats’ impeachment investigation was a startling admission; House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) had obtained call recordsbetween Rep. Devin Nunes, Rudy Giuliani, Ukraine intermediary Lev Parnas, and journalist John Solomon.

In response, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) said “It raises a lot of serious questions,” before demanding to know what Schiff was up to.

I want to know all the people Adam Schiff is spying on,” Scalise told the Washington Examiner. “Are there other members of Congress that he is spying on, and what justification does he have? He needs to be held accountable and explain what he’s doing, going after journalists, going after members of Congress, instead of doing his job.”

The records showed calls between Nunes and President Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, and calls between Nunes and Lev Parnas, a Giuliani associate now under indictment for funneling foreign money to U.S. political candidates.

Schiff said the calls raise questions about whether Nunes was involved in what Democrats believe was a scheme to undermine Trump’s political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. –Washington Examiner

On Tuesday, Schiff said “I find it deeply concerning at a time when the president of the United States was using the power of his office to dig up dirt on a political rival, that there may be evidence of members of Congress complicit in that activity.”

Nunes says he doesn’t recall speaking with Parnas, and that any discussions with Giuliani would have likely revolved around the Mueller report.

“I remember talking to Rudy Giuliani, and we were actually laughing about how Mueller bombed out,” Nunes told Fox News on Tuesday.

Democrats claim that the Nunes call records reveal that he’s been coordinating with the Trump administration and Giuliani to go after former Vice President Joe Biden, who has been credibly accused of corruption in Ukraine involving his son Hunter.

Democrats have been critical of Nunes since his tenure as the House Intelligence Committee chairman from 2017 to 2019. During that time, Nunes made a trip to the White House to inform Trump his transition meeting messages were intercepted by U.S. intelligence.

“I always felt that Mr. Nunes was a dividing character,” Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell of New Jersey told the Washington Examiner. “We know of his meetings with the president, which he had every right to do by the way. But in the peculiar position he was in, it was obvious where he was getting his orders and how he proceeded. And I think he’s going to get what’s coming to him.”

Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said “there are serious questions” about the calls between Nunes and Giuliani and Parnas. He said Democrats “need to look at them and see what action ought to be taken, if any.”

Hoyer declined to say whether it would be in the form of a House ethics investigation or a punitive House floor measure.

“I want to have input from other people before I opine on what we ought to be doing. I will be doing that,” he said. –Washington Examiner

The call record produced by House Democrats also reveal calls in late April between Lev Parnas and journalist John Solomon, a previous columnist for The Hill who has broken several bombshell stories regarding the Russia investigation and the Bidens.

“I’m interested in why he was doing this,” said Scalise of Schiff. “And under what authority.”

end

Although this is suspect but it looks like Mifsud was not a USA asset.  However we must wait for the iG report to be sure

(zerohedge)

No Setup? Horowitz To Claim Mifsud Wasn’t US Asset, Yet Papadopoulos Says He’s Italy’s Spook

The Washington Post reports that Attorney General William Barr’s hand-picked prosecutor could not confirm that Russiagate figure Joseph Mifsud is a US intelligence asset – thus, according to the Post, the Russiagate counterintelligence investigation against the Trump campaign could not have been a setup.

The revelation comes from the Post‘s Matt Zapotosky and Devlin Barrett (the latter of whom had a direct line to former FBI attorney Lisa Page according to her text messages), and will reportedly appear in the forthcoming report by DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz.

In short, Horowitz asked US Attorney John Durham if Mifsud was a US intelligence asset “deployed to ensnare the campaign,” to which Durham – who is conducting a separate review of the 2016 US election – responded that his investigation “had not produced any evidence that might contradict the inspector general’s findings on that point,” according to the Post.

Of note, Mifsud told (or seeded) 2016 Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos with the rumor that Russia had ‘dirt’ on Hillary Clinton, on April 26, 2016. Two weeks laterhe repeated it to Australian diplomat (and Clinton ally) Alexander Downer at a London bar, who relayed the Kremlin ‘dirt’ rumor to Australian authorities, which alerted the FBI – kicking off the official counterintelligence operation against the Trump campaign, dubbed Operation Crossfire Hurricane.

That said, the Post adds “The Washington Post has not reviewed Horowitz’s entire report, even in draft form. It is also unclear if Durham has shared the entirety of his findings and evidence with the inspector general, or merely answered a specific question.”

Papadopoulos, meanwhile, has posited that Mifsud is (or was) an Italian intelligence asset “who the C.I.A. weaponized,” according to an October New York Times report. Moreover, Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani told Fox News in April that Mifsud was “a counterintelligence operative, either Maltese or Italian,” who may have participated in a “counterintelligence trap” against the Trump campaign aide.

Notably, AG Barr himself traveled to Italy in Mid-September to discuss Mifsud, and was reportedly told by the head of the Italian Security Intelligence Department, Gennaro Vecchione, that Mifsud was not one of their assets.

According to a former Italian government official, Barr first met with Gennaro Vecchione, the head of Italy’s Security Intelligence Department, on Aug. 15, essentially to establish contact, and returned Sept. 27 for a second meeting with the heads of Italy’s domestic and foreign intelligence services.

Barr, the official said, “asked if Italian intelligence knew anything about Mifsud and if the Italians were aware of his role” in the Russia investigation “in terms of being involved in Italian intelligence itself or if he was politically tied with Italian political leaders allied with the Democrats.” The Italians, the official said, “explained that there is no involvement by the Italian intelligence services in this — and the fact that we don’t have any evidence of this plot.”

They confirmed no connections, no activities, no interference,” the official said. –Washington Post, Oct. 6

As we have noted ad-nauseum, Mifsud has bragged about being a member of the Clinton Foundation. Meanwhile, here is a timeline of Mifsud’s interactions with Papadopoulos, via The Markets Work:

We know that Papadopoulos met multiple times with Mifsud in the first half of 2016:

  • March 14 2016 – Papadopoulos first meets Mifsud in Italy – approximately one week after finding out he will be joining the Trump team.
  • March 24 2016 – Papadopoulos, Mifsud, Olga Polonskaya and unknown fourth party meet in a London cafe.
  • April 18 2016 – Mifsud introduces Papadopoulos to Ivan Timofeev, an official at a state-sponsored think tank called Russian International Affairs Council.
  • April 26 2016  – Mifsud tells Papadopoulos he’s met with high-level Russian government officials who have “dirt” on Clinton. Papadopoulos will tell the FBI he learned of the emails prior to joining the Trump Campaign.
  • May 13 2016 – Mifsud emails Papadopoulos an update of “recent conversations”.

Note: Papadopoulos and Mifsud reportedly both worked at the London Centre of International Law Practice. –The Markets Work

So – was Mifsud an asset of any state intelligence apparatus – or was he working with any on behalf of Hillary Clinton?

 

John O. Brennan

@JohnBrennan

I subsequently learned from the Mueller report that there was a lot more evidence of collusion and obstruction of justice than was indicated in the misleading & highly politicized Barr memo. Your obvious fear of Congressional action is warranted & your dishonesty is appalling. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1131002394966462464 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

John Brennan on the Mueller probe, “I don’t know if I received bad information, but I THINK I SUSPECTED THAT THERE WAS MORE THAN THERE ACTUALLY WAS.” Wow, he admits he was wrong! Congress should go back to work on drug prices etc.

George Papadopoulos@GeorgePapa19

Oh, John: all the weaponized assets you sent my way [Joseph Mifsud, Alexander Downer, Stefan Halper] are all being outed from London, Rome and Canberra. Those governments are now actively cooperating with the Trump administration and have flipped on you. Your role will be exposed

And let’s not forget that during Operation Crossfire Hurricane, the FBI sent operative Stephen Halper and a mysterious woman named “Azra Turk” to befriend and conduct espionage on Papadopoulos for events which took place on UK soil – and which AG Barr has said he considers spying.

Halper – who was paid more than $1 million by the Pentagon while Obama was president – contacted Papadopoulos on September 2, 2016 according to The Daily Caller – and would later fly him out to London under the guise of working on a policy paper on energy issues in Turkey, Cyprus and Israel – for which he was ultimately paid $3,000. Papadopoulos met Halper several times during his stay, “having dinner one night at the Travellers Club, and Old London gentleman’s club frequented by international diplomats.”

As the New York Times noted om May, the London operation “yielded no fruitful information,” while the FBI has called their activities in the months before the 2016 election as both “legal and carefully considered under extraordinary circumstances,” according to the report.

end
Trump will force Schiff the Bidens and Pelosi will testify if the impeachment goes to the Senate
(zerohedge)

Trump Warns “Schiff, Bidens, & Pelosi Will Testify” If Impeachment Goes To Senate

After yesterday’s farcical partisan discussion of just how terrible President Trump’s “high crime and/or misdemeanor” was (or wasn’t), and the recent chatter about ‘censure’, one could be forgiven for thinking that the Democrats are looking for an off-ramp from their NeverTrump campaign.

And in two tweets this morning, perhaps President Trump has highlighted the reason why Schiff et al., may prefer to end this soon…

“The Do Nothing Democrats had a historically bad day yesterday in the House. They have no Impeachment case and are demeaning our Country. But nothing matters to them, they have gone crazy. Therefore I say, if you are going to impeach me, do it now, fast, so we can have a fair trial in the Senate, and so that our Country can get back to business. “

And here’s the kicker…

We will have Schiff, the Bidens, Pelosi and many more testify, and will reveal, for the first time, how corrupt our system really is. I was elected to “Clean the Swamp,” and that’s what I am doing!”

 

We suspect it’s not just the Republicans, Deplorables, and Expendables that would like to see that happen.

 

end
This ought to be fun!!  Hunter Biden must produce 5 years financial records in his paternity suit
(zerohedge)

Hunter Biden Ordered To Produce Five Years Of Financial Records; Baby-Mama Must Disclose Stripper Tips

Hunter Biden has been ordered by an Arkansas judge to produce five years of financial records in his paternity case – a period which includes the majority of his time on the board of Ukrainian gas giant Burisma, which paid Biden’s firm over $80,000 per month.

Hunter’s baby-mama, stripper Lunden Roberts, will also have to disclose how much she made in tips at a DC strip club where the two met, according to the Daily Mail – reporting on location in Batesville, Arkansas.

Originally Judge Don McSpadden, who is presiding over the court in Batesville, Arkansas, had only asked for three years’ records.

But now he says he needs five years of records before making a decision on how much the former vice-president’s son should pay to support his child.

On Tuesday, McSpadden sent out a blunt letter to attorneys in the case — including the one that Biden fired minutes before a hearing on Monday. –Daily Mail

Roberts is asking for $11,000 in legal fees as well as child support for their child – who she has argued qualifies for Secret Service protection as the grandchild of former Vice President and 2020 candidate Joe Biden.

“Baby Doe’s paternal grandfather, Joe Biden, is seeking the nomination of the Democratic Party for President of the United States of America. He is considered by some to be the person most likely to win his party’s nomination and challenge President Trump on the ballet in 2020,” reads a filing by Roberts. “The members of the Biden family either are protected or eligible to be protected by the United States Secret Service as a direct result of Joe Biden’s political status.”

“Baby Doe’s paternity could put the child and those close to the child at risk of harm for the same reasons the Biden family is protected by the United States Secret Service.”

The 49-year-old Biden and 28-year-old Roberts were given 10 days to produce their financial records, though they will be sealed from the public.

Roberts, a resident of Southside, Arkansas, has already provided one set of records, but Judge McSpadden says he wants more.

“I have viewed Ms Roberts affidavit of financial means online and saw that she is employed at a family business probably for a salary of less than minimum wage,” he wrote. “Therefore for now I want the affidavit of financial means and supporting documents to cover the last five years. This would include monies received from any source for both parties whether it be support of any kind, gifts or salary, which would include bonuses, tips or gratuities.”

The court in Batesville, Arkansas, is expected to decide all matters in the case at the next hearing, expected for January 7, McSpadden told Roberts’s lawyer Clint Lancaster and former Arkansas attorney general Dustin McDaniel, who had been representing Biden.

The judge made it clear he wants the case over quickly. ‘I do not want to have this [drag] out nor do I want to have to drag out the monies these individuals may have received in any form or fashion.

‘I anticipate paternity as well as custody, support and visitation being established at our next hearing,’ he wrote.

He added: ‘I will do what I believe is in the best interest of the child.‘ The sex of the child has not been released.

‘This matter has been filed in this court. Again, my major and main if not only concern is this child,’ McSpadden added. ‘Issues are no longer up to the parties.

I am going to treat this case like any other paternity case that comes before the court. Hopefully the parties will see fit to look out for the interest of this child.’ –Daily Mail

Biden’s appointment to the board of Burisma while his father was overseeing Ukraine policy for the Obama administration is at the heart of current impeachment proceedings against President Trump – who has been accused of interfering in the upcoming election for asking Ukraine to investigate the matter.

END

John Solomon: The 10 Most Important Revelations To Expect From The Russia Probe FISA Report

Authored by John Solomon via JohnSolomonReports.com,

Next week Americans will finally get their most complete accounting to date of what the FBI did right and wrong in the Russia collusion investigation that probed President Trump’s campaign with a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant at the end of the 2016 election.

Predicted to span more than 500 pages and 100 witness interviews, Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report Monday will provide a comprehensive catalog of what offenses, mistakes and oversights the FBI committed during one of the most politically polarizing investigations in recent history.

 

As such, it will serve as a non-partisan roadmap for a much longer process of holding the investigators to account, a process that now includes a criminal probe being led by U.S. Attorney John Durham and investigative hearings by Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Lindsey Graham.

In the evitable political bitterness that grips Washington, each political party will seek to score points by cherry-picking their favorite Horowitz findings. But there is a far weightier question than electoral politics to be resolved: Can the FBI be trusted going forward to adequately, fairly and honestly protect civil liberties of Americans while conducting counterintelligence, counterterrorism and criminal investigations.

With that bigger question in mind, here are the 10 revelations I believe will be most important in the Horowitz report.

 

1. The scope of failure and misconduct

Were there isolated mistakes, systemic cultural and procedural failures or intentional acts involved in the investigation, the pursuit of the FISA warrant against ex-Trump adviser Carter Page and the renewal of the FISA warrant for more than a year? I expect the Horowitz report to identify between six and 12 failures, mistakes and acts of misconduct. These will range from the serious offense of altering a government document to failures to provide the courts evidence and information required under the FISA process. The large number of problems, if confirmed, should be a wakeup call to the FBI and those who provide oversight of its activities.

2. Exculpatory evidence withheld

The issue of whether the FBI failed to tell the FISA judges, as required, about evidence of innocence concerning some of the Americans it targeted has been raised for more than a year by key members of Congress like Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Ca., and Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C. I expect the IG to identify exculpatory statements made by key figure George Papadopoulos to an undercover informant that were not properly disclosed to the court. A second revelation to watch is whether the FBI possessed similar evidence of innocence involving Page that was not disclosed.

3. Derogatory information about informant Christopher Steele

The FBI stated to the court in a footnote that it was unaware of any derogatory information about the former MI6 agent it was using as “confidential human source 1” in the Russia case. This claim could face a withering analysis in the report. Congressional sources have reported to me that during a recent unclassified meeting they were told the British government flagged concerns about Steele and his reliance on “sub-sources” of intelligence as early as 2015. Bruce Ohr testified he told FBI and DOJ officials early on that he suspected Steele’s intelligence was mostly raw and needed vetting, that Steele was working with Hillary Clinton’s campaign in some capacity and appeared desperate to defeat Trump in the 2016 election. And documents show State Department official Kathleen Kavalec alerted the FBI eight days before the first FISA warrant was obtained that Steele may have been peddling a now-debunked rumor that Trump and Vladimir Putin were secretly communicating through a Russian bank’s computer server. Most experts I talked with say each of these revelations might constitute derogatory information that should be disclosed to the court. On a related note, Horowitz just released a separate report that concluded the FBI is doing a poor job of vetting informants like Steele, suggesting there was a culture of withholding derogatory information from informants’ reliability and credibility validation reports. You can read about that here.

4. News leaks as evidence

One of Horowitz’s earlier investigative reports that recommended fired FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe for possible prosecution put an uncomfortable spotlight on the bureau’s culture of news leaks. Since then, a handful of other cases unrelated to Russia have raised additional questions about whether the FBI uses news leaks to create or cite evidence in courts. One key to watch in the Horowitz report is the analysis of whether it was appropriate for the FBI to use a Yahoo News article as validating evidence to support Steele’s dossier. We now know from testimony and court filings that Steele, his dossier and Fusion GPS founder Glenn Simpson played a role in that Yahoo News story. If so, was the use of the article “circular reporting” instead of independent corroboration? It’s an important question for Horowitz to resolve.

5. Verification under the Woods Procedures

For years the FBI has been required to certify to the FISA court that all information submitted in a warrant application was “verified” under the so-called Woods Procedures. Lawmakers with access to classified information have said for months they fear a key allegation gleaned from Steele’s dossier – that Carter Page had met with two senior Russian officials close to Putin in summer 2016 – was never verified when it was used as evidence in the FISA warrant. We know from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report that those contacts alleged by Steele never happened. Horowitz should provide valuable insight on this issue.

6. Steele dossier heartburn

Former FBI Director James Comey has consistently testified he understood the Steele dossier to be “salacious” and “unverified” and yet the bureau submitted four “verified” warrant applications that relied on evidence from the dossier. A major question for Horowitz to answer is: who else besides Comey shared that distrust and how early did those concerns about the dossier emerge? Congressional Republicans have demanded the release of a series of email chains they claim might show FBI and DOJ officials had similar heartburn about the reliability of the document. In addition, the FBI kept a spreadsheet analyzing the claims in Steele’s dossier. Sources who reviewed it have said the vast majority of the dossier’s claims fell into one of three categories: debunked, could not be verified or traced to open-source intelligence typically found on the Internet.

7. What investigators learned from Steele

We know from State Department memos that more than a week before the first FISA warrant was obtained, Steele visited with senior State officials and acknowledged he was working with the FBI, leaking to news media and had an election day deadline to get his information public. Likewise, Steele similarly indicated to senior Justice official Bruce Ohr as early as summer 2016 he was desperate to stop Trump from being elected and was working in some capacity with Trump’s rival, Hillary Clinton. So here is a big development to watch: What did Steele tell the FBI about these very important issues? And when did the FBI first learn he might be leaking? The FBI ended its informant relationship with Steele on Nov. 1, 2016, a little over a week after using his dossier to support the first FISA warrant. And the reason they did so was because agents had concluded he improperly leaked to the news media. But did the FBI know or have reason to suspect that problem before the first FISA warrant? Stay tuned.

8. Bias, intent and incompetence

The issue of which of these three problems to blame will be the political football most tossed around by partisans. But in the end it is less important to the question of protecting civil liberties. One’s privacy is infringed wrongly whether the FISA application was harmed by intentional bias or incompetence. That said, expect a mixed verdict on this issue. I suspect there is evidence that an FBI lawyer intentionally altered a piece of evidence that affected the FISA process. That could be criminal. I suspect it is less likely that the IG will conclude that the audacious anti-Trump bias expressed in the official text messages of FBI agent Pete Strzok and bureau lawyer Lisa Page impacted specific actions in the FISA process, especially because many more DOJ and FBI than those two were involved in the process. But we already know from the release last month of Strzok’s disciplinary file that the FBI considered the bias expressed in the text messages to be “misconduct” that cast a pall on the credibility of the FBI and its Trump-Russia and Clinton email cases. And I suspect the IG will identify a number of systemic and individual mistakes that tarnished the FISA process in the Russia case.

9. Criminal referrals and disciplinary actions

Horowitz has already referred Comey’s mishandling of sensitive Russia memos for possible prosecution, which was declined. He also referred McCabe for prosecution for lying, an issue which McCabe contests and which appears unresolved. Lots of people will be watching to see if more referrals for prosecution are included in the latest Horowitz report. I would expect at least one, if not more, referrals will have grown out of the Horowitz’s FISA report, which is likely why Durham’s probe recently was converted from administrative to criminal. Other remedies for accountability could fall into the disciplinary category.

10. Lessons Learned

This may not be the most politically hot topic to emerge from the report, but it is potentially the most important for protecting against future civil liberties violations and FBI intrusions on an American election. What will Horowitz recommend as remedies so we don’t have another Russia collusion fiasco in the future? Do FBI and DOJ need new rules and thresholds for opening probes of candidates and campaigns? Does the FBI system for vetting informants need to be fixed? Does the FISA court need a public advocate to protect the liberties of Americans targeted for warrants to create a check and balance on the FBI? Do the Woods procedures for verifying evidence for a FISA warrant need revision or overhaul? These are weighty questions that the FBI, DOJ and Congress almost certainly will face in the coming months.

The Horowitz report Monday and the IG’s testimony next Wednesday before the Senate start a new phase of accountability for the FBI and those government officials in the intelligence community who worked on the Russia case. But it is only a beginning of a process that likely will take many more weeks or months.

And the final script won’t be written until Americans can be assured the FBI can conduct future counterintelligence investigations without repeating the mistakes made during the Russia collusion probe.

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Dem Rep. Al Green complained about the lack of minority legal experts at the hearing: “What subliminal message are we sending to the world when we have experts, but not one person of color? Are we saying that there are no people of color who are experts on this topic?”

GOP Rep. Mark Walker @RepMarkWalker: Meet Noah Feldman, House Democrats first partisan witness. Look at the date of this tweet. He has been trying to get @realDonaldTrump impeached since 46 days into his presidency. His reason? Trump criticized President Obama.  This is a sham impeachment with sham witnesseshttps://twitter.com/NoahRFeldman/s

     The next witness, Karlan, has donated thousands to Democrats and was on Hillary Clinton’s list for a potential Supreme Court nomination. So she certainly has no vendetta against @realDonaldTrump.  These witnesses are as serious as House Democrats impeachment case: not at all.

Alan Dershowitz @AlanDersh: Professor Karlan’s partisanship was evident in her testimony. Would she have made the arguments she made if Hillary Clinton had been elected and were being impeached on similar grounds ? Does she pass the “shoe on the other foot” test? (1 of 2)

    Professor Gerhardt is wrong in arguing that a president can be impeached for insisting that the courts resolve conflicts between the legislative and executive branched.  Professor Gerhardt says that we teach our law students always to comply with congressional subpoenas.  No. We teach our students that we have an adversary system which permits the executive to challenge legislative actions.

    The Republicans should have challenged Professor Feldman’s assertion that “abuse of office” is a constitutional basis for impeachment. These words do not appear in the Constitution and such vague criteria were rejected by the Framers.

 

@IngrahamAngle: Who Is Michael J. Gerhardt? “He served as deputy media director for former VP Al Gore’s first Senate campaign, and was involved in Mr. Clinton’s transition to the White House in the early 1990s.”

@paulsperry_: Turley’s opening statement: “[T]his is a case w/o a clear criminal act and would be the FIRST such case in history if the House proceeds w/o further evidence. In all 3 impeachment inquiries, the commission of criminal acts by Johnson, Nixon and Clinton were clear and established”

The Hill’s @Olivia_Beavers: GOP-invited witness Turley, who will warn impeaching Trump will set a “dangerous precedent,” notes in opener that he is “not a supporter of President Trump. I voted against him in 2016…”  “I have been highly critical of President Trump, his policies, and his rhetoric,” he said.

   Some Turley humor: “I get it. You are mad. The President is mad. My Democratic friends are mad. My Republican friends are mad. My wife is mad. My kids are mad. Even my dog is mad . . . and Luna is a golden doodle and they are never mad.”

    Turley says Dems haven’t collected enough material info to move fwd w/ impeachment, points to witnesses like Bolton, Giuliani, and Mulvaney. “To impeach a president on such a record would be to expose every future president to the same type of inchoate impeachment.”

Turley: “Many people feel what the president has done is obnoxious, contemptible, but it is not synonymous with impeachment…Impeachments have to be based on proof, not presumptions. That’s the problem when you move towards impeachment on this abbreviated schedule – that has not been explained to me why you want to set the record for the fastest impeachment… If you make a high crime and misdemeanor out of going to the courts, it is an abuse of power. It’s YOUR abuse of power. You’re doing precisely what you are criticizing the President for doing.”

Turley made a trenchant point when he quoted Saint Thomas More, from the movie A Man for All Seasons: “Yes, I’d give the Devil benefit of law, for my own safety’s sake.

@RepAndyBiggsAZ: “I’m concerned about lowering impeachment standards to fit a paucity of evidence and an abundance of anger.” – Jonathan Turley

@CBSNews: George Washington University Law School Prof. Jonathan Turley: “I believe this impeachment not only fails to satisfy the standard of past impeachments, but would create a dangerous precedent for future impeachments.”

 

GOP @RepKenBuck got the law professors to admit that surveilling a political candidate is impeachable.

 

@AnnCoulter: The great thing about these preening partisan professors is that they will not only cause Americans of good conscience to turn on the Dems, but on all law schools everywhere for all of time.

 

GOP member urges Graham to subpoena Schiff, Biden phone records

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/473047-gop-member-urges-graham-to-subpoena-schiff-biden-phone-records

@seanmdav: “I want to know all the people Adam Schiff is spying on,” [GOP Rep.] Scalise said. “Are there other members of Congress that he is spying on, and what justification does he have? He needs to be held accountable and explain what he’s doing.”

@seanmdav: A top Mueller source [George Nader] during the anti-Trump Russia probe — a pedophile and child porn trafficker whom Mueller refused to arrest — was just indicted for running an illegal campaign contribution scheme in 2016 on *Hillary Clinton’s* behalf. https://t.co/ggMQAnSapR

 

The WSHJ’s @KimStrassel: Still waiting for my fellow members of the media to express their deep outrage and alarm that Intelligence Chair Schiff snooped thru and published phone records of member of the free press. The silence is deafening.

 

Solomon: The 10 most important revelations to expect from the Russia probe FISA report

https://johnsolomonreports.com/the-10-most-important-revelations-to-expect-from-the-russia-probe-fisa-report/

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: