DEC 6//ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKS ASSOCIATED WITH A PHONY JOBS REPORT//GOLD DOWN $16.75 TO $1461.25//SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TO $16.58// ANOTHER HUGE GOLD QUEUE JUMPING//SUPPOSED GOOD JOBS REPORT ADDED IN EXCESS OF 200,000 PEOPLE//GERMAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION COLLAPSES//OPEC AGREES TO A PRODUCTION CUT OF 500,000 BARRES/ PER DAY//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1461.25 DOWN $16.75    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$16.58 DOWN 42 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) : 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1460200

 

silver:  $16.57

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  563/845

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,476.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/05/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/09/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 285
152 C DORMAN TRADING 1
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 2
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 48
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 38
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 25
661 C JP MORGAN 563
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
690 C ABN AMRO 544 3
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 12
800 C MAREX SPEC 12 47
880 C CITIGROUP 15
880 H CITIGROUP 71
905 C ADM 15
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 845 845
MONTH TO DATE: 9,741

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 845 NOTICE(S) FOR 84500 OZ (2.6280 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  9741 NOTICES FOR 974100 OZ  (30.2996 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

61 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 305,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2765 for 13,825,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7371 DOWN 13 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7439 UP 52

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 3316 CONTRACTS FROM 208,269 DOWN TO 204,953 DESPITE THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; DEC 0; MARCH:  4022 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  4022 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4022 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4022 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 20.11 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

18.09   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE QUITE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 14 CENTS).. ALSO, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A GOOD 706 CONTRACTS. OR 3.53 MILLION OZ…..

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

13,145 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 13,145 CONTRACTS) OR 65.72 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2190 CONTRACTS OR 10.950 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  65.72 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,150.06   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3316, DESPITE THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4022 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 706 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 4022 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 3316  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.024 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 61 NOTICE(S) FOR 305,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.7

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  18.09 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 1524 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING CLOSER TO  THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 700,602. THE FALL IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED WITH A GOOD $3.60 PRICING GAIN ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// YESTERDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6920 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  6902 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 700,602,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8444 CONTRACTS: 1524 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6920 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8444 CONTRACTS OR 84400 OZ OR 26.26 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $3.60 IN GOLD TRADING.

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 26.26  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP  $3.60) .THEY WERE ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (26.26 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 50,304 CONTRACTS OR 5,030,400 oz OR 156.46 TONNES (6 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,384 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 156.46 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 156.46/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.40% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5882.16  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1524 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($3.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6920 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6920 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8444 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6920 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1650 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 26.26 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A RISE IN PRICE OF $3.60 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  845 notice(s) filed upon for 84,500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $316.75 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

DEC 6/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 888.57 tonnes

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

DEC 6/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3316 CONTRACTS from 208,269 DOWN TO 204,953 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR DEC. 0; FOR MAR  4022  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4402 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 3316  CONTRACTS TO THE 4402 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 706 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.53 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 18.09 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 4022 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.55 POINTS OR 0.43%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 281.33 POINTS OR 1.07%   /The Nikkei closed UP 54.31 POINTS OR 0.23%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .33%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0302 /Oil UP TO 58.06 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.31 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0302 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0298 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea//USA

With the deadline fast approaching both Kim and Trump are resorting to name calling

(zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

CHINA

China is so desperate for pork and soybeans that they are waiving tariffs on these products.  This is not much of a concession as the market thinks

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY

Not good German Industrial production crashes by the most in 10 yrs..it fell 1.7% in the latest October reading.

(zerohedge)

ii)EU

A new plan:  all EU members must take in migrants  The UK is so happy to leave under Brexit and thus will not have to take in more migrant

(Kern/Gatestone)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SAUDI ARABIA/USA

Trump boasts that he has now made Saudi Arabia pay for protection against Iran.  He boasted that they have already paid billions

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

i)The shale drilling boom is coming to an end

(Cunningham/OilPrice.com)

ii)0PEC agrees to a 500,000 bpd cut in production

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Fed VP Quarles is grilled on the Fed’s illegal loaning of billions to failed hedge funds

(Pam and Russ Martens/GATA).

ii)To all of our coin collectors: they found some every rare 1856 San Francisco minted quarters

(Dowd/SF Chronicle/GATA)

iii)Stefan Gleason’s Money Metals News Service ranks states that are following policies of sound money and wish to use gold and silver as money

(Cortez/MMN/GATA)

iii)Your weekend reading..

how fiat will fail and gold will reign supreme

(Macleod/GATA)

iv)A massive leak from the panama papers shows how Turkey used gold to pay for oil/gas and this evaded the USA sanctions on Iran

(zerohedge)

 

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/this morning USA

Your phony jobs report

(zerohedge)

ii)And now the real story..

with respect to the gain, 54,000 jobs  most of that gain was the return of GM workers.  Another gain in our famous bartender and waitress number.
Why don’t they just take payroll taxes as an indicator for growth?
(zerohedge)

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Soft data U. of michigan confidence survey surges in an early December release

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Illinois is in such a mess with their pension situation. This state will be the first to fail

(Dabrowski/Wirepoints)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Democrats still refuse to accept that they lost the election in 2016. Pelosi: civilization itself is at stake if Trump wins in 2020

(Watson/.Summit/News)

b)Lawyer, and Constitutional expert Jonathan Turley explains the derangement syndrome facing the Democrats

(Turley/zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1524 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 700,602 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $3.60 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6920 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 0 ; FEB: 6902  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6902 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 8,444 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6920 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINEDCONSIDERABLE SIZED 1524 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS DONALD TRUMP WAS ON THE WARPATH YESTERDAY AGAINST CHINA AND FRANCE//AND THE BANKERS INITIATED ANOTHER RAID// (IT ROSE $3.60). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 8444 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  8444 CONTRACTS OR 84400 OZ OR 26.26 TONNES.

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 2546 open interest stand for a GAIN of 279 contracts.  We had 138 notices filed upon yesterday so we AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED FOR THE FOURTH DAY  405 contracts or an additional 40,500 will stand (1.2599 TONNES) for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and negated on receiving a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI INCREASE by 60 contracts UP to 3937 which is extremely high for a January delivery month.. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A LOSS  OF 1381 in contracts DOWN to 511,603.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

 

WE HAD 845 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  84,500 OZ. (2.628 TONNES)

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 3316 CONTRACTS FROM 208,269 DOWN TO 204,953 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A GOOD 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a loss of 88 contracts down to 914. We had 161 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we GAINED 73 contracts or an additional 365,000  oz will  stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.  They gained back exactly what we lost yesterday.

 

 

After December we have the non active month of January and here we see that we lost 69 contracts down to 1086.  FEBRUARY  saw its ANOTHER addition of 3 contracts to stand at 61.  MARCH saw an decrease of 3763 contracts down to 161,663.  March is a very active month for silver.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 61 notice(s) filed for 305,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 318,740  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  250,906  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 6/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
1350.30 oz
42 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
845 notice(s)
 84500 OZ
(2.628 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1701 contracts
(170100 oz)
5.2908 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9741 notices
974,100 OZ
30.2996 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii)into everybody else; 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0 oz

 

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

I) OUT OF:  Int. Delaware:  1350.300 oz

(42 kilobars)

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 1350.300  oz

We had 1 adjustments

i) Out of Int Del. 12,249.531 oz was adjusted out  of the dealer and this landed into the customer account and we will deem this a settlement  (.3810 tonnes)

 

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 845 contract(s) of which 563 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9741) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (2546 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (845 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,144,200 OZ OR 35.589 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (9741 x 100 oz)  + (2546)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (845 x 100 oz )which equals 1,144,200 oz standing OR 35.589 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

We gained 405 contracts or an additional 40,500 oz will stand at the comex as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.148 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              35.589 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 11.6934 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 111.57  tonnes

 

Thus:

111.57 tonnes of delivery –

11.6934 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 99.8766 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.218 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,358,083.065 oz or  42.24 tonnes 
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,358,083.065 oz (42.24 tonnes)  
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+ JPMorgan 513.930 oz (.0159 tonnes)
    total  238,067.576 oz (7.40490 tonnes) 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged)  1,130,015.50 oz or 35.148
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,821,750.180 oz 274.39 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 6 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 632,206.407 oz
CNT
Brinks
Int. Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
61
CONTRACT(S)
(305,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
853 contracts
 4,265,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2765 contracts

13,825,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.4% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/313.4 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 4,839.35 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  543,687.805 oz

 

iii) Out of Int Delaware: 83,679.252 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 632.206.407  oz

We had 2 adjustment:

i) Delaware: 4952.10 oz was adjusted out of the customer Delaware and into the dealer Delaware

ii) CNT: 5183.761 oz was adjusted out of the customer CNT and this lands into the dealer account

 

 

total dealer silver:  85.051 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.537 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 61 contract(s) FOR 305,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2765 x 5,000 oz = 13,825,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (914) and the number of notices served upon today 61 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 2765 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (914)- number of notices served upon today (61) x 5000 oz equals 17,725,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We gained 73 contracts or an additional 365,000 oz will stand at the comex as they, refused to morphed into London based forwards. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 61 notice(s) filed for 305,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  107,342 CONTRACTS //(high vol. due to raid)

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 74,150 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 74,150 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 370 million  OZ 52.9.% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.45% ((DEC 6/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.16% to NAV (DEC 6/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.45%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.45 TRADING 1393///DISCOUNT  3,57

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 6/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 888.58 tonnes

*IN LAST 719 TRADING DAYS: 48.68 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 619 TRADING DAYS: A NET 118.37 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

 

 

DEC 6:  SLV INVENTORY

368.969 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.87/ and libor 6 month duration 1.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.89%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.92

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.03

end

 

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Fed VP Quarles is grilled on the Fed’s illegal loaning of billions to failed hedge funds

(Pam and Russ Martens).

Pam and Russ Martens: Fed VP grilled at House hearing on billions in loans to Wall Street

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, December 5, 2019

While the Democrats focused on the continuing predatory practices of U.S. banks and the Federal Reserve’s coziness with those same banks, three Republicans at yesterday’s House Financial Services Committee hearing delved into why the Federal Reserve is showering Wall Street’s trading houses with super-cheap loans on the pretext that it’s simply part of the Fed’s routine monetary operations.

… 

Since September 17 the Federal Reserve, through its New York Fed branch, has been funneling hundreds of billions of dollars each week to Wall Street’s trading houses, intervening in what had been a private overnight lending operation (called repurchase agreements or repo loans) between banks and other financial institutions.

Since September 17 the Fed loans have grown in both size and duration with some loans extended out as far as 42 days — suggesting to many on Wall Street that there is one or more banks in trouble that peer banks simply don’t want to lend to. The Fed, however, has stuck to the mantra that this is just a routine response to a liquidity blip. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/12/federal-reserve-v-p-grilled-at-ho…

* * *

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Federal Reserve V.P. Grilled at House Hearing on Hundreds of Billions in Fed Loans to Wall Street

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 5, 2019 ~

While the Democrats focused on the continuing predatory practices of U.S. banks and the Federal Reserve’s coziness with those same banks, three Republicans at yesterday’s House Financial Services Committee hearing delved into why the Federal Reserve is showering Wall Street’s trading houses with super cheap loans on the pretext that it’s simply part of the Fed’s routine monetary operations.

Since September 17, the Federal Reserve, through its New York Fed branch, has been funneling hundreds of billions of dollars each week to Wall Street’s trading houses, intervening in what had been a private overnight lending operation (called repurchase agreements or repo loans) between banks and other financial institutions. Since September 17, the Fed loans have grown in both size and duration with some loans extended out as far as 42 days – suggesting to many on Wall Street that there is one or more banks in trouble that peer banks simply don’t want to lend to. The Fed, however, has stuck to the mantra that this is just a routine response to a liquidity blip.

The Republican Co-Chair of the Committee, Congressman Patrick McHenry (R-NC), began the questioning on the repo matter early in the hearing, asking the Fed’s Vice President for bank supervision, Randal Quarles, to explain what has necessitated these loans on the part of the Fed. Quarles responded:

Randal Quarles

“There were a complex set of factors that contributed to those events in September. Not all of them were related to our regulatory framework. But I do think that as we have considered what were the driving factors in the disruption in the repo market in September, we have identified some areas where our existing supervision of the regulatory framework, less the calibration or structure of the framework itself, may have created some incentives that were contributors.

“They were probably not the decisive contributors but they were contributors. And I think we need to examine them. Particularly among them are the internal liquidity stress tests that we run that create a preference, or can create a preference at some institutions, for central bank reserves over other liquid assets including Treasury securities for the satisfaction of their liquidity requirements under the liquidity framework that’s put in post the crisis.”

This garbled response, which effectively said nothing, triggered a request for clarification from McHenry. Quarles answered:

“The regulation was intended to be structured so that banks would be indifferent between central bank reserves and other forms of liquid assets, particularly Treasury securities in satisfying their High Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) retention requirements and the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) itself does not make any distinction.”

McHenry responded that there appears to be a distinction. Quarles said:

“Some banks, from their internal assessment of how their liquid assets will perform in a future period of stress have put a heavy emphasis on central bank reserves as the most liquid assets. Treasury securities take a day to settle, markets can be disrupted in the event of extreme unexpected events. So that does create a thumb on the scale for central bank reserves. So I think it is worth reviewing, and we are reviewing some of these supervisory measures.”

Later in the hearing, Congressman French Hill (R-Arkansas) brought up the Fed’s repo loans again, saying that he had had discussions on this matter with Quarles over “the last few weeks.” Hill wasn’t buying Quarles’ earlier response to Congressman McHenry. Hill said:

“When you see the amount of the reserves held by the banks they’re extensive; they’re far above any requirement by the Dodd-Frank rules. The four largest banks collectively have more cash with the Fed than the next 24 combined. How does the Fed make clear to the banks that interday lending is a good thing, that is, that other banks have access to those amounts of cash that are far in excess of what they need regulatorily.”

Quarles said the Fed is looking at its supervisory role to make sure it is not creating incentives for “hoarding” by these big banks. (Clearly, the biggest banks are hoarding and/or backing away from questionable financial institutions that they don’t want to lend to.)

Congressman Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) asked about the Fed “injecting $100 billion or so a day into the repo market” and asked Quarles “Do you see a moral hazard in that?”

Quarles said “I don’t think actually that there is a moral hazard there.” Quarles also explained that as the Fed has reduced the level of reserves it always expected to eventually see a price response – meaning that there would be a spike in the overnight borrowing rate as the amount of available reserves to lend out shrank.

Davidson then said: “Well how would the price response happen correctly if the Fed intervenes. So you’re preventing the market from functioning, in a way, because of the Fed intervention. And when you look at the purpose of the hearing, I think that nothing highlights better the fact that we might not have a regulatory framework dialed in correctly for financial institutions than the fact that our repo market is in chaos right now and the only way to bridge that gap is essentially, print money….”

The real repo rate spiked to 10 percent on September 17. Since then the Fed has been artificially creating a cheap repo loan market, loaning money out at 1.55 percent as of this morning’s operation. That’s a profit windfall for the unnamed Wall Street trading houses that are getting these loans.

Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley (D-Massachusetts) drew awkward and uncomfortable responses from Quarles by bringing up a weekend New York Times article that pointed out his closeness to the mega trading houses on Wall Street – the same ones that the Fed is showering with these super cheap loans. The exchange went as follows:

Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley

Pressley: “We have a government structure to work one way for banks and businesses and another for consumers and working families. That’s why I pushed the Federal Reserve to provide everyday consumers with the same settlement services it already provides for banks. Working families shouldn’t have to wait 3 to 5 days for a check to clear. Now Mr. Quarles, you were the lone dissenter in the Federal Reserve’s decision to develop FedNow, which was heralded by small businesses and consumer groups alike. I do believe that how one chooses to spend their time reflects what they value, and, more importantly, who they value.

“Mr. Quarles, over the weekend the New York Times published a profile on your regulatory approach. And notably, you have chosen to spend your time in this role — in your first 21 months in office you met with Goldman Sachs 24 times; you met with JPMorgan 19 times; you met with Morgan Stanley 17 times; and with Citi[group] 12 times. In that same time frame, how many consumer groups did you meet with?”

Quarles: “Over the course of my first 21 months in office I met with approximately, at a conservative estimate, 15,000 to 20,000 people. The great majority of those – you’ve noted that 26 of those were Goldman Sachs [Congresswoman Pressley actually said 24 meetings were held with Goldman Sachs] out of 15 to 20,000 people, again at a conservative estimate, that’s 14/100ths of one percent of my time was spent with that and the other 99.86 percent of my time was spent with others.”

Pressley then asked Quarles to name even one consumer group or civil rights group he had met with. Quarles was unable to name even one such group.

END

To all of our coin collectors: they found some every rare 1856 San Francisco minted quarters

(Dowd/SF Chronicle/GATA)

Super-rare Gold Rush-era coins minted in San Francisco found in 1857 wreck

 Section: 

By Katie Dowd
San Francisco Chronicle
Wednesday, December 6, 2019

Nine rare coins minted in San Francisco are the latest finds from the haul left behind by a shipwreck so massive, its sinking contributed to a U.S. financial panic in the 1800s.

The SS Central America, loaded with 30,000 pounds of gold from San Francisco, was nearly done with its trip to New York when a Category 2 hurricane hit the Atlantic. The ship was badly battered and began taking on water. It sank off the Carolina coast with more than 400 souls on board.

… 

For over a century, it sat on the ocean floor. In 1988 search and recovery efforts found the shipwreck and its valuable cargo almost entirely intact. Over the years millions of dollars in coins and gold ingots have been salvaged and auctioned.

That salvage effort continues to this day, as the initial 1988 recovery reportedly dredged up and sorted through only a fraction of the ship’s wares. Today the California Gold Marketing Group, of Brea, Calif., the current owners of the Central America treasure, announced they’ve identified nine 1856 silver quarter dollars. The company believes they originate from “a batch of coins brought aboard by a California gold rush-era miner.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/ss-central-america-shipwreck-gold…

* * *

END

Your weekend reading..

how fiat will fail and gold will reign supreme

(Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: Fiat’s failings, gold, and blockchain

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, December 5, 2019

The world stands on the edge of a cyclical downturn, exacerbated by trade tariffs initiated by America. We know what will happen: The major central banks will attempt to inflate their way out of the consequences. And those of us with an elementary grasp of economics should know why the policy will fail.

… 

In addition to the monetary and debt inflation since the Lehman crisis, it is highly likely the major international currencies will suffer a catastrophic loss of purchasing power from a new round of monetary expansion, calling for a replacement of today’s fiat currency system with something more stable.

The ultimate solution, unlikely to be adopted, is to reinstate gold as circulating money, and how gold works as money is outlined in this article.

Instead, central banks will struggle for fiat-based solutions, which are bound to face a similar fate with or without the blockchain technology being actively considered. The Asian and BRICS blocs have an opportunity to do something with gold. But will they take it? …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/fiat-s-failings-go…

Fiat’s failings, gold and blockchains

The world stands on the edge of a cyclical downturn, exacerbated by trade tariffs initiated by America. We know what will happen: the major central banks will attempt to inflate their way out of the consequences. And those of us with an elementary grasp of economics should know why the policy will fail.

In addition to the monetary and debt inflation since the Lehman crisis, it is highly likely the major international currencies will suffer a catastrophic loss of purchasing power from a new round of monetary expansion, calling for a replacement of today’s fiat currency system with something more stable. The ultimate solution, unlikely to be adopted, is to reinstate gold as circulating money, and how gold works as money is outlined in this article.

Instead, central banks will struggle for fiat-based solutions, which are bound to face a similar fate with or without the blockchain technology being actively considered. The Asian and BRICS blocs have an opportunity to do something with gold. But will they take it?

Introduction

Central banks around the world are praying that there won’t be a recession, and if there is that a further monetary stimulus will ensure economic recovery. Their problem is Keynesian theory says it will work, but last time it didn’t. In fact, it has never worked beyond a temporary basis. The big surprise this time was the lack of officially recorded price inflation. But this is due to the system gaming the numbers, making it appear there has been some moderate growth when a proper deflator would confirm most Western economies have been contracting in real terms for the last ten years.

Most likely, the monetary planners believe their own numbers. That being the case, any softening in an economy will be deemed to require yet more aggressive monetary expansion than that which followed the Lehman crisis. The ECB is even talking about creating money to invest in renewable energy as well as funding budget deficits. Jay Powell is giving the Fed some leeway on the potential for price inflation, the anticipated consequence of revved-up monetary inflation to deal with upcoming challenges. To encourage governments to increase their budget deficits to give yet more Keynesian stimulus, quantitative easing will give them the means, while at the same time recapitalising the banks. But with things not working as the textbooks said they should, many monetary planners are highly concerned, speculating some sort of monetary reset will eventually be required.

Classical economics is very clear on the matter: the wealth transfer of the Cantillon effect is permanently impoverishing the majority of producers and temporally enriching governments, banks, large zombie corporations and speculators. Businesses that should not see the light of day obtain easy money. No one expects to have to repay debt, which around the world is now estimated to be $255 trillion, up over 45% since Lehman’s failure, and they know it will be reduced in real terms by inflation.

We are past the point where monetary stimulation creates a temporary economic benevolence, which according to Keynes is all that’s required to revive animal spirits. But the animal in us all is suffering severe monetary anaemia, having been bled to near-death over repetitive cycles of credit inflation.

We know the planners are worried about loss of control. It is reported that seven out of ten central banks are examining cryptocurrency and blockchain solutions. The Bank for International Settlements probably hosts an unofficial committee to coordinate ideas and identify significant issues. A blockchain might allow a central bank to monitor and direct ownership of money as a means of complimenting their monopoly of the supply and transfer of benefits between savers and borrowers. It threatens to take the socialisation of money to a new level and offers the prospect of increasing statist control over its use.

This article attempts to provide context for the dilemmas faced by a failing fiat-money system. The error at the outset is to think that money is a creature of the state. The state can legislate as much as it likes but ultimately any socialising monetary system fails. If in their lack of wisdom central banks mistakenly replace one form of fiat with another, then they will merely be issuing a new mandat to replace a failed assignat; the mistake that France’s revolutionary parliament made in the turbulent 1789-96 period.

In that sense, the world is where France was in the early 1790s, a period that led to civil insurrection, Napoleon and European-wide wars. That was bad enough. But on a global scale, mistakes in establishing a future form of money are potentially far more dangerous for mankind.

Defining money

It is time to properly define money and its function to provide a baseline for critics of socialising states in order to comprehend the errors that are likely to be committed in the replacement of failing currencies. It is no exaggeration to accuse monetary planners of misconceptions and ignorance about their own subject. The only form of money which they believe is acceptable is the fiat money of their own issuance. But the population does not use it of its own free will, having been forced to by being stealthily robbed of sound money over decades in order to use state-issued fiat until it has become fully accepted through habit.

Fiat money satisfies only some of the conditions of sound money, but its flaws in the other conditions are the reason for its eventual downfall. Here is a summer of those conditions:

  • It must be the most commonly used medium of exchange in a market society.
  • It is the most marketable good, whose primary purpose is to be later exchanged for the goods and services its users need and desire.
  • It must be readily accepted for goods, services and the satisfaction of debts.
  • It must facilitate the division of labour upon which all economic progress is based.
  • Its quantity and purchasing power can only be decided collectively by its users acting as individuals.
  • The role of the state and the banks must be strictly limited to providing fully backed money substitutes.
  • It must be widely accepted across national borders in order to be truly credible.[i]

As long as these criteria are satisfied, anything can act as money. Sound money can only be commodity money, such as gold and silver or gold and silver substitutes respectively which are fully backed by bullion. Other forms which do not satisfy all the listed conditions but can circulate for a temporary period include token money where a coin takes its value from its face value and not its commodity value, credit money which is not redeemable into gold on demand, fiat money in its various forms, and more recently cryptocurrencies as well as any other forms of money yet to be invented.

It stands to reason that a form of money that evolves from the people’s choice instead of one imposed upon them by their governments through legislation will be more durable. Decentralised ledger cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin offers this advantage. Gold, the longest lasting form of money, has been used for millennia and accepted as having value as money across diverse civilisations. It has only been displaced by fiat money through the evolution of discriminatory legislation in the last century.

Fiat money evolved from masquerading as a money substitute. Even during the gold standards of the nineteenth century, banks issued money in the form of credit simply by creating it without the backing of gold. Consequently, gold substitutes and fiat currency circulated with no means for the public to distinguish the fiat element from gold substitutes. The inability of anyone to tell the difference has been exploited by governments throughout history, leading more recently to the last fig-leaf of gold substitution being reneged on altogether in 1971.[ii] The current monetary crisis has come about through the unfettered inflation of supply by governments and their central banks taking full advantage of their seigniorage monopoly.

The gold standard for a new money

Any monetary reform designed to last must dispense with the temptation of utilising seigniorage as a means of funding by the state. This condition makes it impossible for spendthrift governments to consider any monetary reform that embraces sound money unless they are able to reform their role in their economies as well. Furthermore, they have to overcome the misdirection of what they believe to be the path to economic progress, falsely termed as growth, but is in fact monetary inflation. The combination of statistical, mathematical and Keynesian economics which have been taught and evolved from fallacies for at least a century is barely more sophisticated than John Law’s experiment which bankrupted France three hundred years ago.

Nothing less than the re-adoption of gold, always the people’s preferred choice for their money, will survive both space and time. Gold substitutes are not only permissible but desirable, because no one will want the inconvenience of weighing gold and testing for its purity in order to settle a transaction. Both cash and electronic settlements must be fully backed by physical gold, and deferred settlements contracted in gold or gold substitutes. Banking must be realigned separately into acting as deposit banks as custodians and acting as arrangers of finance as intermediaries to rid the system of unbacked bank credit. And all fiat masquerading as gold substitutes must be legislated to be fraudulent.

There are many prizes for an economy that uses gold and fully backed gold substitutes as its medium of exchange, giving certainty on the money side to everyone. Trade imbalances disappear and the general level of prices is regulated by gold arbitrage between centres. Thus, if it is generally cheaper for citizens in Parsimonia to buy goods from Ruritania, Parsimonian gold or gold substitutes will move to Ruritania as payment for goods. The increased quantity of gold relative to demand for goods in Ruritania will raise the general level of prices there, while the lower stock of gold resulting in Parsimonia will lower its domestic price level until they coincide with those of Ruritania, allowing of course for frictional costs. Where there are different relative preferences between money (gold) and goods, prices will tend to balance out through the arbitrage process.

This does not happen with national currencies which are not gold substitutes. Any trade arbitrageur is faced with the additional step of selling one currency and buying another. Furthermore, governments use the cover of gold substitution to intervene in currency markets by deploying unbacked fiat, as evidenced in the days of the Bretton Woods Agreement.

A further benefit comes from the necessary realignment of government activities. When gold and gold substitutes are money, governments can no longer finance themselves through the expansion of bank credit, nor can they socialise money except to an extent strictly limited by taxes. Consequently, producers, in which we include ordinary working men and women as well as organised businesses, have greater certainty over the value of their earnings, profits and future values. And with the state taking a lesser role in welfare provision, the strictures that come with increased personal responsibility encourage saving.

The cycle of credit expansion, speculation and crisis simply disappears. In the absence of bank credit periodically expanded without gold backing, capital is invested with the greatest efficiency, failures being cut quickly so that all forms of productive capital can be redirected into more successful enterprises and ventures. Measured in gold and gold substitutes prices decline over time through product innovation, technologies and competition. Instead of relying on currency debasement to reduce the burden of debt, a borrower knows that it is in his interest to repay his debts at the earliest opportunity, and the saver knows that his savings will not be depreciated over time.

This is a brief summary of the best replacement for failing fiat currencies, which is gold and its fully backed substitutes. It is strongly disliked by modern states, because it hands monetary power to the people, depriving governments of the ability to regulate money and credit while benefiting from its seigniorage. Its introduction cuts off a source of wealth transfer upon which the state has become accustomed to depend. The reintroduction of gold as money means welfare payments have to be curtailed and future welfare commitments withdrawn. Sound money is not an electable proposition.

It is likely that a monetary reset will not be aimed at the adoption of sound money in an incorruptible form to replace a failed monetary system, if only because it would require a negation of all socialising economics. But there could be a difference in approach between nations whose leaders understand the basics of sound money and those who do not. At this distance in time it would appear that Asian and Middle European nations who have suffered socialist depravation within living memory are more inclined towards sound money than the Anglo-Saxons, Western Europeans and Japanese, who are all still drifting inexorably away from free markets into greater regulation and micro-management by the state through monetary manipulation.

A monetary reset is likely to expose the rift between East and West

The divide between ex-socialist states and those drifting into greater welfare socialism is characterised by a difference in state finances. Those enduring the heaviest welfare burden can least afford the immediate strictures for long-term monetary stability, while Russia, China and the other Asian nations who in the past have suffered communism do not have the high levels of government indebtedness and welfare commitments on the scale of the Europeans, British, Japanese and Americans. There is a risk that the financial war being raged today between the two groups will polarise opinions on the subject of a monetary reset, in which case China and Russia should emerge in a stronger position than the welfare states in the West.

Even so, China has adopted monetary inflation as its primary management tool for promoting economic objectives. The remarkable success of the liberated economy is due its emergence from decades of communist suppression, rather than monetary inflation, though it has admittedly been accelerated by state-directed monetary and credit expansion. It is therefore unlikely China’s leadership will easily give up the facility of monetary inflation for domestic use. But as the dollar and euro particularly begin to lose purchasing power through accelerating monetary inflation, China and the rest of the Eurasian world-island are able to turn to gold as backing for cross-border settlement at the least.

This will differ significantly from the route taken by the welfare-dependent nations, who instinctively will want to exclude gold, and instead look for a solution incorporating their own failing currencies. Mark Carney’s speech last August at Jackson Hole confirmed this to be his thinking. It centred on the dollar as reserve currency no longer being suitable for a global economy which has changed enormously since it became the de facto standard in 1971. Carney’s solution is to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Clearly, any move to lessen the dollar’s role would be resisted by America. Furthermore, in the Eurozone, new splits are already developing between the cautious bankers in the Bundesbank and the increasingly inflationist ECB. It is hard to see how central banks representing the welfare-heavy nations will be able to agree on anything

Blockchain solutions are being explored

Seven out of ten central banks are said to be actively looking at the possibilities offered by blockchain technologies. Other than a need to appear proactive towards new technologies, it is hard to see a positive role for the technology, except perhaps for a scheme to differentiate between currency circulating for trade settlements and domestic circulation. One thing is certain: if it comes about, the use of blockchains will be aimed at increasing control by the state of how money is used.

Presumably, that is the superficial attraction to monetary planners. China is reported to be well advanced in its undeclared plans for a blockchained currency and could make an announcement shortly. It is difficult to see how this would advance the role of the yuan for domestic circulation, because banking technology is already highly developed and efficient when it comes to circulating currency. Furthermore, the state controls the banks and has access to all the banking information that would be provided by a blockchain, rendering it unnecessary. But there may be a role for blockchain technology in trade settlement.

Both the BRICS initiative and members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation may be suited for a dollar replacement in their cross-border trade. There are two likely options. The first is a new blockchained currency representing a mixture of currencies relevant to the trading parties, to be used exclusively between members of the two organisations. There would be a number of political advantages to such a scheme, such as making a clean break with the dollar, other than for trade with non-members.

In its battle to maintain the dollar’s hegemony, America will have convincingly lost its financial war with China, finding that half the world’s population represented by most of Asia, Brazil and South Africa will have turned its back on the dollar. At a stroke, Mark Carney’s vision of a post-dollar world would have happened, but perhaps not in the fashion he expected. It would be a major defeat for the dollar and mark the end of its hegemonic status and for that reason alone has its attractions for an embattled China.

A blockchained trade settlement currency would also supplement exchange controls, prevalent among the members of the two organisations. The disadvantage is that being only backed by the participant’s fiat currencies, it would be vulnerable to a currency collapse in one or more of its components.

The second option, to introduce gold backing into a new blockchain currency would be more enduring, and here, it should be noted that all members have gold reserves, mine gold, and in most cases are actively adding to their gold reserves. While the devil may be in the detail, this option is a more sensible solution than one based on pure fiat.

Conclusion

Talk of a global monetary reset is little more than just that. We have seen what is required for an enduring solution to the world’s monetary ills, but western welfare-heavy states have neither the mandate nor the theoretical knowledge to implement and understand it. For these nations, which use dollars, euros, pounds and yen, there is no apparent escape from an eventual fiat money collapse.

The outlook for BRICS members and those of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has the potential to be more positive, if they are prepared to link a new blockchained currency to gold. But the replacement of the dollar for inter-membership trade for half the world’s population would almost certainly trigger an immediate dollar crisis, to the obvious detriment of everyone else and implications for the BRICS and SCO members. But the dollar’s goose is cooked anyway.

END

Stefan Gleason’s Money Metals News Service ranks states that are following policies of sound money and wish to use gold and silver as money

(Cortez/MMN/GATA)

Monetary metals dealer and sound money group rank state gold and silver policies

 Section: 

By JP Cortez
Money Metals News Service, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, December 3, 2019

“Is your state destroying your money?” asks the Sound Money Defense League and Money Metals Exchange with the release of the 2019 Sound Money Index.

The Sound Money Index is the first index of its kind, ranking all 50 states using 12 criteria to determine which states maintain the most pro- and anti-sound money policies.

… 

The Sound Money Index evaluates each state’s sales and income tax policies involving precious metals, whether a state recognizes the monetary role of gold and silver under the U.S. Constitution, whether a state holds pension, reserves, or debt denominated in gold or silver, whether a state has imposed precious metal dealer and investor harassment laws, and other criteria.

Wyoming, Texas, and Utah emerged the best states on sound money, and South Dakota, Alaska, New Hampshire, and Washington are not far behind.

Maine, Tennessee, Ohio, and Kentucky joined Vermont, Arkansas, and New Jersey as the worst states on this issue. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2019/12/03/2019-sound-money-index-00191…

iii) Other physical stories:

A massive leak from the panama papers shows how Turkey used gold to pay for oil/gas and this evaded the USA sanctions on Iran

(zerohedge)

 

Massive Leak Confirms Turkey’s “Gold-For-Gas” Scheme To Evade US Sanctions On Iran

We first started noticing major ‘odd’ exports of gold from Turkey to Iran in May 2012.  Turkey’s trade balance fluctuated wildly as gold stocks flowed out of the country in bursts.

“Turkey’s going to continue it,” the Turkish economy minister said. “If those casting aspersions on the gold trade are searching for immorality, they should take a look in the mirror.”

Then, in 2014, we discussed Turkey’s “200 tons of secret gold” trade with Iran detailing how a complex network that spanned Turkey, China, Dubai and Iran was used to skirt US sanctions on energy exports from Iran.

The operation featured an Iranian-born businessman who liked fast horses, faster cars and the fastest planes. His unique skill: Getting gold into sanctions-encircled Iran.

Enough gold that for a time he became the government’s key instrument in improving Turkey’s irksome economic imbalance.

At the time, the plot revealed what one observer called, “one of the most complex illicit finance schemes [prosecutors] have seen.”

In 2017, the man at the center of the scheme, Reza Zarrab, was arrested (and briefly disappeared) and was tied to Turkey’s president.

“Zarrab is thought to have been close to the Erdogan family and, indeed, he was given Turkish citizenship, alongside Iranian. This is a real stress point.”

Zarrab pleaded guilty in October 2017 and turned against Mehmet Hakan Atila – a director at Turkey’s Halkbank – who was convicted on Jan. 3, 2018, and after serving a total 32 months behind bars was returned to Turkey and has since become the head of the Istanbul stock exchange.

And since then “one of the biggest money-laundering schemes ever” has disappeared from the headlines… until now.

Thanks to a massive leak of more than a million documents from a British offshore shell company provider, think Panama Papers 2.0, we now learn exactly how Iran’s national oil company and its subsidiaries hopscotch the globe, with the help of intermediaries, in search of tax havens that help it try to wriggle free from the grip of crippling U.S.-led sanctions.

As McClatchy reports, the massive data set of communications, incorporation certificates and other documents was leaked to journalists, and after months of collaboration, news organizations across the globe are collectively publishing stories starting this week under the title #29Leaks.

Included in the voluminous Formations House documents is a register of shareholders in an offshore company called Naftiran Intertrade Company Ltd, or NICO. This list of shareholders was attached to an email from December 2014, declaring the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company as the overarching shareholder and having complete control over NICO.

Also attached was a register of NICO directors listing five Iranian nationals.

NICO, the gasoline import arm of the state oil company, came to renewed international attention in March 2016 after the arrest at Miami International Airport of Reza Zarrab.

He flew to Florida to visit Disney World and on that trip was charged with conspiring to evade U.S. sanctions through an elaborate gold-for-gas scheme between Turkey and Iran, and using global banks to process transactions on behalf of Iran.

Prosecutors contend that Zarrab and a co-defendant, Mehmet Hakan Atila, who was a director at Turkey’s Halkbank, schemed to help Iran skirt U.S. sanctions by trading Turkish gold for oil and natural gas. Using companies across the globe, they facilitated $20 billion worth of transactions.

“High-ranking government officials in Iran and Turkey participated in and protected this scheme,”the Justice Department in Oct. 15, 2019. statement announcing charges against Halkbank, which incriminated Zarrab.

“Some officials received bribes worth tens of millions of dollars paid from the proceeds of the scheme … and to help shield the scheme from the scrutiny of U.S. regulators.”

Shortly after his arrest, Zarrab, who is married to a Turkish pop star and has citizenship in Iran as well as Turkey, implicated Turkish President Recep Erdogan as having approved the operation.

Zarrab was represented briefly by Rudolph Giuliani, who has since become President Trump’s personal attorney. Zarrab was also a focus of Special Counsel Robert Mueller III’s prosecution of Trump adviser Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn for lying under oath the FBI. Mueller looked at Flynn’s lobbying for Turkey.

Additionally, the leaked documents tie the mid-October, six-count indictment against Halkbank for fraud, money laundering and sanctions-evasion was tied to NICO and the state oil company.

Prosecutors said that bank has been the “sole repository of proceeds from the sale of Iranian oil” to Turkey and also cited Zarrab transactions involving NICO.

The leaked new documents expose this chain of communications between a Dutch offshore services provider, Dennis Vermeulen of INCO Business Group, Formations House employees Oliver Hartmann (aka Syed Rizwan Ahmed) and Charlotte Pawar, and Farhad Dizadji, owner and senior partner of London-based accounting firm Roberts & Partners.

“Just like we’ve seen in the Halkbank scandal, entities are eager to exploit the secrecy afforded by anonymous shell companies to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran, undermining our national security,” the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, Oregon’s Ron Wyden, said in a statement on the Formations House leak.

“Ending anonymous shell companies would make it easier for law enforcement to ‘follow the money’ when investigating complex financial crimes like sanctions evasion.”

By constantly switching domiciles, NICO may have sought to ease political pressures, according to a former senior official at the U.S. Treasury Department. The official previously worked on Iran sanctions and international money-laundering investigations and requested anonymity in order to discuss non-public matters.

So, in conclusion, we now have two facts confirmed – trust no one and nothing; and gold is money. Given the level of grift here, we wonder just how long before more incriminating evidence is leaked about how Democrats have benefited greatly from Ukraine deals.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0304/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0298   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 12.55 POINTS OR 0.43%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 281.33 POINTS OR 1.07%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 54.31 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.43/Euro FALLS TO 1.1094

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.58/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.06 and Brent: 63.31

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.31%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.34% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.48%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.65: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.51

3k Gold at $1475.50 silver at: 16.96   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.74

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.58 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9886 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0968 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.31%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.79% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.24%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7598..

Futures Near Record High On Burst Of “Trade Deal Optimism”

With the much anticipated November jobs report looming (see preview here), futures are back to trading just shy of all time highs, enjoying a burst of trade deal optimism when first President Trump said China trade deal talks were “moving right along”, and then, at 1am ET, China announced it would waive import tariffs imposed last year on some U.S. soybean and pork shipments… which of course is hardly a concession as Beijing is rushing to source more meat to fill a record hole in its pork inventory and production.

 

Trump’s upbeat comments on Thursday and China’s fake concession was enough to encourage algos to BTFATH, despite once again there being no agreement over whether existing tariffs should be dropped as part of an initial deal to ease the long standoff. European shares, including the broader Stoxx 600 gained 0.5% in early trade before grinding sideways, with indexes in Frankfurt and Paris up by similar amounts. The UK’s FTSE 100 outperformed, gaining 0.75% as GBP slips back below 1.3150. Retailers, travel names and miners outperform with only the health care sector in negative territory

 

Europe’s Friday euphoria promptly ignored the latest disastrous German industrial output, which unexpectedly plunged in October, pointing to persistent weakness in the backbone of the economy. Berlin said, however, that new orders and business expectations suggest output may stabilize.

The buoyant mood to end the week – at least until today’s NFP print is announced – mirrored the risk appetite in Asia, where MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.5%, with Asian stocks rising for a second day, led by technology companies, as China worked toward waiving retaliatory tariffs on imports of U.S. pork and soy. Most markets in the region were up, with Hong Kong and South Korea leading gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is set for its first weekly advance in a month. The Topix edged higher, supported by machinery and construction firms. Japanese household spending dropped the most in three and a half years.

China stocks posted their biggest weekly advance in nearly two months, with the blue-chips up 0.6%. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed, with Kweichow Moutai and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine among the biggest boosts. U.S. merchandise imports from China dropped to a fresh three-year low amid prolonged trade negotiations. India’s Sensex slid, heading for its first weekly drop since October, as banks weighed on the gauge. Consumer confidence in the country fell to the lowest in more than five years.

The MSCI world equity index added 0.2%, and was not far off a record high of 550.63 hit last January but still on track for a weekly fall.

While investors continue to hope and expect the two sides to reach a compromise to at least avoid a new batch of tariffs on about $156 billion of Chinese exports, due to take effect on Dec. 15, markets had originally expected the sides to seal the initial deal in November. Instead, investors are nervously watching the approaching deadline for the new U.S. levies.

“The difficulty with this is it’s very difficult to time and to trade,” said Unigestion strategist Jeremy Gatto. “We are relatively favourable towards riskier assets in general – but with hedges.” Gatto said those hedges include currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and Australian dollar, as well as options.

There is economic data too: today investors are looking at the November U.S. jobs data, and a nonfarm payrolls report which is expected to show 183,000 new jobs created in November, up from 128,000 a month earlier.

“Markets are in consolidation phase,” said Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier. “It’s wait and watch for first, how does the non-farm payrolls look and, more importantly, the Dec. 15 tariff deadline.”

While markets have largely priced in the view that the world economy has dodged the bullet of recession, there are still signs of fragility in many major economies, and one could clearly see their signs in the price of the world’s most important commodity: oil lost ground overnight as investors awaited a meeting of OPEC and its allies later on Friday, which is expected to formally agree to more output curbs in early 2020.

Details of the agreement and how the cuts will be distributed among producers still need to be ratified at a meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC nations, otherwise known as OPEC+, in Vienna. Brent crude futures were flat at $63.46 a barrel after earlier gaining ground. The agreement coincided with the IPO of state oil firm Saudi Aramco, which was priced at the top of its range and raised $25.6 billion in the world’s biggest IPO, valuing the Saudi state company at $1.7 trillion.

In rates, Treasury yields are near the middle of ranges in place since mid October, the 10-year at ~1.79%. A survey by BMO found erosion of dip-buying mentality, with 38% inclined to buy if the data spark a sell-off vs a six-month average of 57%. The October jobs report and two others of the past six had fleeting impact on Treasuries; August and May reports spurred rallies, June data sparked a sell-off. Median survey estimates for the November data include nonfarm payrolls gain of 183k, 3.6% jobless rate and a 0.3% month-on-month increase in average hourly earnings. Euro-area bonds were mostly steady, underperforming Treasuries; a large upside buyer of five-year U.S. Treasury options targeted the yield to fall below 1.4%, following earlier block trades in two-, five- and seven-year Treasury futures that appeared to fade Tuesday’s dovish Fed repricing.

In FX, the British pound stepped back some 0.2%, its first drop in six days. Sterling spiked to a seven-month high of $1.3166 on Thursday on bets that next week’s election will give the Conservative party the majority it needs to deliver Brexit, ending near-term uncertainty. The pound last stood at $1.313. It hit 2-1/2-year highs versus the euro.

Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased most of its losses after slipping for a sixth day, its worst streak since September 2017.New Zealand’s currency is poised for its biggest weekly gain in a year after the central bank said the economy is near a turning point; the comments by Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand further damped rate-cut expectations.

To the day ahead now, the headline release comes this afternoon though with the November employment report in the US, while later on we’ll also get the preliminary December University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, October wholesale inventories and October consumer credit. In terms of politics Germany’s Social Democrats gather for a three-day convention while tonight will see UK PM Johnson and Labour’s Corbyn take their places in a televised head to head debate.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,124.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 404.23
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 164.97
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 525.05
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 23,354.40
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,713.36
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 26,498.37
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,912.01
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 40,497.53
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,707.02
  • Kospi up 1% to 2,081.85
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to -0.298%
  • Euro down 0.01% to $1.1103
  • Brent Futures down 0.02% to $63.38/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 7.9 bps to 1.022%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.484%
  • Brent Futures down 0.02% to $63.38/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,473.97
  • U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 97.41

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China is in the process of waiving retaliatory tariffs on imports of U.S. pork and soy by domestic companies, a procedural step that may also signal a broader trade agreement with the U.S. is drawing closer
  • German industrial production unexpectedly extended its decline, raising concerns that some of the early signs of a manufacturing revival may have already been smothered
  • North Korea may be preparing to conduct engine tests at a long-range rocket launch site, stepping up pressure on President Donald Trump ahead of a year-end deadline it imposed to get a better deal from the U.S. in nuclear disarmament talks
  • The survival of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government hangs in the balance as her disgruntled coalition partner wrestles with its future. A three-day convention for the Social Democrats, starting Friday in Berlin, marks the party’s latest effort to get itself on track after reluctantly entering a coalition to support Merkel for her fourth term two years ago
  • Political uncertainty is playing havoc with the U.K. labor market, with demand for workers rising at the slowest pace for a decade, according to a report by KMPG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation
  • Speaker Nancy Pelosi set the House in motion toward a historic vote to impeach President Donald Trump on a rapid timetable that could bring the process to conclusion before the Christmas holiday
  • U.S. trade with China extended its decline in October as goods imports from the nation fell to a fresh three-year low amid prolonged talks between the two largest economies on a trade deal.
  • Oil held near $58 a barrel as the OPEC+ coalition failed to pin down the details of an agreement to adjust its official output target even after six hours of talks in Vienna
  • Japanese household spending slumped in October, suggesting the economy may have taken a bigger than expected hit from a sales tax increase and extreme weather. Finance Minister Taro Aso says need to see more data to gauge sales tax impact
  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the Trump administration opposes the World Bank’s latest plan for low- interest loans to China, which has received more than $1 billion a year from the lender

Asian equity markets were higher across the board as the recent US-China trade optimism reverberated in the region, but with gains capped as the OPEC/OPEC+ meetings stole much of the limelight and as looming US NFP jobs data kept participants tentative. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) traded positively in which gold miners outperformed the broad but mostly tepid gains for Australia’s sectors, while upside in Tokyo was also limited by recent currency strength and after Household Spending contracted by the most in over 5 years. Hang Seng (+1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were kept afloat after the PBoC conducted a CNY 300bln MLF operation which was larger than the prior operation of CNY 200bln and the CNY 187.5bln of maturing loans, while the trade rhetoric continued to suggest talks are going well and are on track with a phase 1 deal said to be close, although other reports were less optimistic and noted the sides were still at odds on agriculture purchases. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower which was initially the aftermath of the prior day’s pullback amid gains in riskier assets, while prices remained subdued ahead of the December 2019 futures contract rolling over this weekend and with the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY over 1.1tln of JGBs in 1yr-10yr maturities doing little to spur a rebound.

Top Asian News

  • Bank Indonesia Signals Cautious Approach to Further Easing
  • BlackRock, Vanguard Among Fund Giants Flocking to Chinese Market
  • Tencent-Backed iDreamSky Said in Talks to Buy Gaming Firm Leyou
  • Gold Imports by India Slide for a Fifth Month as Economy Slows

Major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%) are in the green, as the region benefits from overnight US/China trade tailwinds, although the onset of pre-NFP caution is keeping trade subdued. As a reminder, US President Trump yesterday said that “something” could happen with regards to tariffs on December 15th, although it is not being discussed yet, but the US is holding discussions with China which are going well. The FTSE 100 (+0.7%) outperforms its peers as Sterling pulls back from recent highs. The DAX (+0.3%) is comparatively muted, after German industrial data this morning disappointed which suggests “that the German economy is continuing to flirt with stagnation and contraction in the final quarter of the year”, according to ING. The CAC 40 (+0.5%) continues to brush off ongoing strikes that have brought much of the country to a standstill. Sectors are all in the green, with the more risk sensitive sectors the outperformers; Tech (+0.8%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%) are the current leaders, while Health Care (+0.1%), Utilities (+0.2%) and Telecoms (+0.1%). In terms of individual movers; Ipsen (-20.6%) shares tanked after the Co. partially delayed two studies into Palovarotene. Swiss Re (+2.6%) was buoyed on the news that the Co. is to sell its Reassure unit to Phoenix Group (+0.3%) in a cash and stock deal valued at GBP 3.2bln. In terms of earnings, Carl Zeiss (-6.5%) is under pressure despite solid gains in FY19 revenue and EBIT; traders were reportedly disappointed by margin targets and, following a run of recent strong earnings reports. Finally, in broker moves, upgrades for Lufthansa (+1.3%), Ryan Air (+1.3%) and Pernod Ricard (+0.7%) saw their respective shares supported, while downgrades for Sanofi (-0.6%), Siemens Healthineers (-1.9%) and Petrofac (-1.6%) saw their shares under pressure.

Top European News

  • U.K. House Prices Rise Most in Seven Months, Halifax Says
  • Why the Russia-Ukraine Gas Dispute Worries Europe: QuickTake
  • Merkel’s Coalition at Stake as SPD Wrestles With Its Future
  • Medacta Falls Most Since IPO to Record Low After Profit Warning

In FX, the broad Dollar and index trades on a firmer footing heading into the much-anticipated US Labour market data (albeit more on the back of a softer GBP – see below), with forecasts for 180k jobs to be added in November, slightly ahead of 3-,6- and 12-month trends rates (Full preview available on the NEWsquawk research suite). DXY remains in the green at time of writing, and just above the middle of the current 97.36-44 intraday band ahead of the main event. Alongside this, Canada will also be releasing its respective jobs report, with the region expected to have added 10k jobs in November. USD/CAD trades at the whim of energy prices thus far as the OPEC+ cartel convenes. The pair resides just under the 1.3200 mark with USD 750mln of options expiring between strikes at 1.3165-75. In terms of pertinent levels, the pair sees its 21 WMA at 1.3212, 100 WMA at 1.3118 and its 200 WMA at 1.3080.

  • GBP, JPY, EUR – Sterling trades softer on the day with little fresh fundamental news-flow, although participants could be cashing in on the impressive gains seen throughout the week ahead of the last batch of weekend polling prior to the election. In terms of the latest, Britain Elects/New Stateman tracker of polls points to a strong lead for the Tories over Labour, but the spread has modestly narrowed. Meanwhile, Ipsos Mori’s poll also showed a slight narrowing in Tory’s lead over Labour. Participants remain on the lookout for the Panelbase poll which may be released today. GBP/USD retains a 1.31+ status at time of writing, but off its current daily and weekly high of 1.3166 (vs. intraday low of 1.3111), with touted support at 1.3080 should it break the 1.3100 psychological mark. That said, today’s options expiries include ~GBP 750mln at strike 1.3100 which could influence price action, contingent on the NFP numbers Stateside and any UK election polling released in the interim. Meanwhile, the JPY remains supported by the GBP/JPY cross which dipped below 142.50 in early trade, although the Sterling softness did provide the Dollar with some impetus and thus keeps USD/JPY at bay just above the 108.50 as the pair bides its time ahead of the US labour market report. Finally, EUR/USD saw downside amid the aforementioned Dollar strength in early EU trade, with the pair dipping below the 1.1100 mark to a low of around 1.1095 ahead of touted support at 1.1090. EUR/USD options today see EUR 1.1bln expiring between 1.1095-1.1100 and EUR 1.3bln around 1.1120-25 – again, options’ influence today is contingent on the US jobs numbers.
  • NZD, AUD – Both modestly firmer in early EU trade in a continuation of support seen during the back end of yesterday’s session, and with potential buoyancy from reports that China could be implementing tariff waivers for some purchases of soybeans and pork; a possible olive branch to the US. The Kiwi outperforms its Aussie counterpart on the back of optimistic reiterations from RBNZ’s Deputy Governor, who touched upon persisting downside risk appearing to be more balance now. Bascand also took note of strong commodity prices supporting the New Zealand economy, while adding that fiscal stimulus could increase the country’s growth next year. NZD/USD took out yesterday high (0.6562) and resides just off session highs of 0.6573 (vs. low 0.6541) at the time of writing. Meanwhile, its Aussie counterpart inches towards the 0.6850 mark having found an intraday base at 0.6830 and with around AUD 1.0bln in options expiring at strike 0.6835.

In commodities, crude markets are jittery, with participants keeping their powder dry ahead of key risk events in the form of the US jobs report at 13:30 GMT and the outcome of today’s OPEC+ meeting, where a final decision on output cuts will be finalised. The complex has been relatively unresponsive to the latest headlines; consensus is for OPEC+ to agree to 500k bpd worth of additional cuts, which could be split 2/3 for OPEC and 1/3 for Non-OPEC, according to the latest sources. This is relatively in-line with the thinking yesterday that the split would 350k bpd to 150k bpd in cuts for OPEC and Non-OPEC countries respectively. However, ING flag the risk of potential market disappointment; “the key question is whether these reported cuts will actually reflect fresh cuts, and so help to reduce the surplus in 1Q20, or whether they will just formalise the over-compliance that we have seen from the group as a whole (thanks to Saudi Arabia)”. The latter would constitute disappointment, the analysts believe. Elsewhere, Russia, who had expressed reluctance to agree to deeper cuts, appear to have been brought on side by having their request to remove the condensate portion of its output removed from its production cut quotas, meaning roughly 800k bpd in Russian output will not be subject to any output cuts. Elsewhere, Angola reportedly stormed out of the talks in protest to the consensus for deeper cuts and now wants to quit the cartel. Furthermore, yesterday’s post meeting press conference was cancelled, with talks reportedly dragging on due to issues with Iraq, although the Iraqi Oil Minister has since said the country will comply with the agreed cuts. Today’s OPEC+ meeting has already begun, with a press conference pencilled in for 13:00 GMT, although, as is usually the case with OPEC+, timings are more a guideline. WTI and Brent front month contracts sees losses as US participants enter the market with the former dipping below USD 58/bbl and the latter eyeing USD 63/bbl. In terms of metals, copper and gold are subdued ahead of NFP, the latter consolidating around the USD 1475/oz mark, although with a slight downwards bias on account of the market’s more constructive risk tone.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Underemployment Rate, prior 7.0%
  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 183,000, prior 128,000
  • 8:30am: Change in Private Payrolls, est. 179,000, prior 131,000
  • 8:30am: Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 40,000, prior -36,000
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, est. 3.6%, prior 3.6%
  • 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
  • 8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.0%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 96.8; Current Conditions, est. 112.8, prior 111.6; Expectations, est. 87.5, prior 87.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If this is the last EMR ever then it’s been nice knowing you. I’ve bought a one-way ticket to LA and am now looking at digs in Hollywood. Yes today I’m taking a couple of hours off work to attend my 4-year old daughter Maisie’s nativity play. Last year in her old nursery she played a “jingle bell” and I didn’t go. However this year at her full time school she’s secured the plumb role of Mary and I’m going to make sure I speak to all the agents likely to be there. I’ve done some reading and statistically children who play Mary or Joseph are likely to be higher earners later in life. So that made me happy. However I should say that a) only 30% of her class are girls and b) she’s the oldest in the whole year. So I’ll curb my pride for now and enjoy the show. Her first line (which we’ve been practising at home) gives me the shivers a little though as it’s “Joseph, come quick. I have great news. We are going to have a baby.” I’ll be having a word with Joseph immediately after the show!

Anyway, from Hollywood to payrolls Friday. Today’s is unlikely to be a blockbuster though as the Fed have made it quite clear that they are on hold until further notice and although we have an FOMC next week its very very unlikely that today’s jobs report will change anything. In terms of a preview, the consensus for November nonfarm payrolls is pegged at 185k (vs. 128k in October) but after Wednesday’s disappointing ADP (67k vs. 135k expected) print it’s likely that the whisper number is lower. Our economists forecast 145k, with around 46,000 of that attributable to the resolution of the GM strike. They also expect average hourly earnings to have risen +0.3% mom, the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6%, and hours work hold steady at 34.4 hours – all of which is in line with the wider consensus. All eyes on the data at 1.30pm GMT then.

Ahead of this, the last 24 hours has actually been fairly quiet relative to the trade-inspired volatility of this week. Still, after a quiet day, trade had the final say as late session comments from President Trump (more below) helped the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW and Semi-Conductor indices gain +0.16%, +0.05%, +0.10%, and +0.37% last night. President Trump said that talks are “moving along well” but that “we’ll have to see” about the December 15 date. That seemed to re-open the door to a potential deferral of the planned tariffs, though Trump said that “we are not discussing that yet.” Elsewhere in Washington, focus was centered on the House of Representatives where Speaker Pelosi said that the House will draft articles of impeachment against Trump. They are likely to vote on the articles next week, which will then send the issue to the Senate (possibly in January), where the 100 Senators will act as jurors at a trial and rule on whether or not to remove Trump from office. A reminder that the Republicans control the Senate by a 53-47 split so it’s highly unlikely that this will have enough momentum to pass.

Back to markets and the more bullish trend from the latter part of the US session has continued into Asia this morning where the Nikkei (+0.28%), Hang Seng (+0.64%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and Kospi (+0.75%) are all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.12%. As for overnight data releases, Japan’s October real cash earnings came in at +0.1% yoy (vs. -0.3% yoy expected) but balanced by the previous months revision to +0.2% yoy from +0.6% yoy. We also saw Japan’s October household spending data at -5.1% yoy (vs. -3.2% yoy expected) impacted by the October sales tax hike and the typhoon.

We’ve also seen news reports from the SCMP overnight suggesting that China’s 2020 GDP growth target is likely to be set at ‘around 6%’ at the Central Economic Work Conference expected to take place later this month. The report added that the policy meeting is set to allow modest expansion of fiscal and monetary policies to support the economy without resorting to massive stimulus.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said overnight that the Trump administration opposes the World Bank’s latest plan for low-interest loans to China, which has received more than $1 bn a year from the lender. Mr. Mnuchin was speaking to lawmakers and said that China should be removed from the World Bank’s loan program. He said “China is now the world’s second largest economy and its per capita income is well above the level at which countries are supposed to ‘graduate’ from needing World Bank assistance,” and added, “The United States is the World Bank’s largest contributor and the spending bill that funds the World Bank includes a provision for a big capital increase for the bank. That’s an opportunity for Congress to weigh in and we should take it.”

In other news, the French unions extended their strike until Monday to protest against the pension reform. Bloomberg also reported that French PM, Edouard Philippe, is expected to unveil the details of the pension reform as soon as next week.

Back to yesterday and bonds were weaker with 10y Treasuries closing up +2.8bps last night and back above 1.80%. In fairness that is the smallest absolute move this week after a zig-zag few days. This morning they are -1.5bps in Asia. Core yields in Europe were also up a similar amount to the US yesterday (Bunds +2.1bps) but Italy (+8.2bps) led the periphery wider due to concerns of a rift between the coalition partners. From memory Italy has seen 91 governments in just under 120 years so news of a rift within a young government would not go down as the most surprising news in global politics at the moment.

Elsewhere, in commodity markets gold edged up another +0.10% and Brent crude oil +0.68% following headlines that OPEC+ is considering a quota cut of 500k barrels a day. In other news, yesterday’s data included a 10k decline in jobless claims to 203k and the lowest reading since early April. That also lowered the four-week moving average to 218k, however it didn’t go unnoticed that continuing claims jumped unexpectedly to 1693k (vs. 1660k expected). Overall though the job news was seen as positive and helped yields rise yesterday. Elsewhere, the October trade balance revealed a narrowing in the deficit to $47.2bn (vs. $48.5bn expected) while factory orders for October were in line with expectations at +0.3% mom.

Here in Europe, the final Q3 GDP reading for the Euro Area was unrevised at +0.2% qoq, putting the year-over-year rate at +1.2%. October retail sales were weaker than expected for the Euro Area (-0.6% mom vs. -0.5% expected) while Q3 employment came in weak at just +0.1% qoq. So more soft data in Europe. Finally, October factory orders in Germany were also weak (-0.4% mom vs. +0.4% expected).

Staying with Germany, it’s worth noting that the Social Democrats are due to gather for a three-day convention starting today. Ahead of it, Walter-Borjans, who was elected co-chief of the party last weekend, said that the SPD is seeking a “massive spending increase”. However it seems that a desire to push for fresh investment has been downplayed ahead of the conference as the party seems to be reigning in their new leadership already. Nevertheless its worth keeping an eye on the headlines over the next few days.

Looking further afield and to the big event here in the UK next week, yesterday DB’s Oliver Harvey provided a policy primer for the UK general election. Oli notes that the fragmented UK political landscape mean that a number of scenarios are plausible when the next government is formed. The most likely is a Conservative government and the medium-term outlook will be determined by policy on Brexit. Should there be no extension to the transition period beyond 2020 and a limited FTA with the EU, Oli sees the medium-term outlook for growth and UK asset prices as negative, but this could change if Brexit policy becomes more pragmatic. In the event that a Labour government is elected, the initial reaction is likely to be one of concern. But if Labour are constrained in implementing a business unfriendly policy mix by other parties, deliver a second Brexit referendum and highly expansionary fiscal policies, the medium-term trajectory for growth and sterling could be more positive.

To the day ahead now, which datawise this morning includes October industrial production in Germany and October trade data in France. The headline release comes this afternoon though with the November employment report in the US, while later on we’ll also get the preliminary December University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, October wholesale inventories and October consumer credit. In terms of politics Germany’s Social Democrats gather for a three-day convention while tonight will see UK PM Johnson and Labour’s Corbyn take their places in a televised head to head debate.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.55 POINTS OR 0.43%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 281.33 POINTS OR 1.07%   /The Nikkei closed UP 54.31 POINTS OR 0.23%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .33%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0302 /Oil UP TO 58.06 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.31 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0302 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0298 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea//USA

With the deadline fast approaching both Kim and Trump are resorting to name calling

(zerohedge)

‘Senile Dotard’: Trump & ‘Rocket Man’ Kim Are Back To Name-Calling As Deadline Looms

Less than a month to go before North Korea’s self-imposed end of year deadline to cut off nuclear negotiations with Washington if no progress is made and Trump and Kim are back at the stage of name-calling, apparently.

North Korean officials have responded to President Trump’s telling reporters in London during the NATO summit of Kim Jong Un  “He really likes sending rockets up, doesn’t he? That’s why I call him Rocket Man” — by calling the US president a “dotard”. Trump is showing “the senility of a dotard,” a top official declared Thursday, reviving the prior insult.

 

Image source: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP

Despite Trump also telling reporters he and Kim have a “good relationship,” the president has also threatened to further isolate him, following a series of rocket tests which may or may not have been UN-banned ICBMs.

Choe Son Hui, North Korea’s First Vice-Foreign Minister was quoted in state media as saying the foreign ministry “can not repress displeasure over the utterances made by President Trump inappropriately at the most sensitive time.”

He added: “If any language and expressions stoking the atmosphere of confrontation are used once again on purpose at a crucial moment as now, that must really be diagnosed as the relapse of the dotage of a dotard.”

 

With the deadline on talks fast approaching, it appears we are straight back to 2017, where the two leaders hurled insults and engaged in name calling on a semi-regular basis.

This week the foreign ministry reminded Washington that the clock is ticking. “The dialogue touted by the US is, in essence, nothing but a foolish trick hatched to keep the DPRK bound to dialogue and use it in favor of the political situation and election in the US,” an official statement read.

“It is entirely up to the US what Christmas gift it will select to get,” it also warned, saying a “surprise” is being prepared, likely in the form of a new missile launch, or what Pyongyang just recently warned Japan could be “a real ICBM”.

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

China is so desperate for pork and soybeans that they are waiving tariffs on these products.  This is not much of a concession as the market thinks

(zerohedge)

Not This Again. China Announces Waivers For Soybeans And Pork 

For months, China has been telling the US that it will waive tariffs on certain agriculture products such as pork which it so very desperately needs:

zerohedge@zerohedge

“China, U.S. should seek the right path to resolve their differences through more positive exchanges” – Xinhua

Like China lowering tariffs on pig imports which it so desperately needs to avoid a middle class uprising due to soaring pork prices?

zerohedge@zerohedge

China to exempt US pork and soybeans from additional trade war duties, in response to Trump’s tariff delay.

China desperately needs both to avoid a food crisis

In early Sept., China said it would waive soybean tariffs and start buying. Then in late Oct., China repeated it. Now a new headline from China states that it has waived duties of soybeans and pork, but does that mean China is actually going to start buying, or is it a feel-good narrative for President Trump to pump on Twitter?

To be sure the latest USDA data shows soybean exports to China are underwhelming. Meanwhile, China has made President Trump look foolish in the last four months with no trade deal.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The deal I just made with China is, by far, the greatest and biggest deal ever made for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our Country. In fact, there is a question as to whether or not this much product can be produced? Our farmers will figure it out. Thank you China!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

CHINA HAS ALREADY BEGUN AGRICULTURAL PURCHASES FROM OUR GREAT PATRIOT FARMERS & RANCHERS!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Start thinking about getting bigger tractors! https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183113326374600705 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Happy National Farmers Day!

View image on Twitter

Even CNBC this week called him out on the phony trade deal. He told farmers in several tweets that they better start buying bigger tractor because China is making substantial agriculture purchases.

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

Given Trump’s new comment that he may want to wait until after ‘20 for a China trade deal, here’s an exchange I had with Kellyanne Conway at the WH yesterday. I asked her if the president was wrong to announce the trade deal in October, before it was actually done.

View image on Twitter

Meanwhile, as Trump has succeeded in squeezing shorts by announcing a “trade deal is almost here” every day for the past year, even though one clearly isn’t, China has been busy sourcing soybeans and meat from other places such as Argentina and Brazil. As we have reported, China signed trade deals with both of these countries in the last four months. In one instance, China announced that they would open a ‘grains superhighway‘ in Argentina to source soybeans.

So it should now make sense why Trump wants to unleash a tariff war on Argentina and Brazil, mostly because China sourced their latest agriculture products from both of those countries and abandoned US farmers.

Why would China want to buy and entirely rely on the US for agriculture products? It doesn’t make sense if you think about it like this – in the view of the Chinese: Trump can wake up any day, and for whatever reason, halt bulk carrier shipments of products en route to the East, as he could say it’s a “national security threat.”

Since we’ve heard the waiver story before, here’s China’s Tariff Commission of the State Council announcing Friday morning waivers “to exclude some soybeans, pork, and other goods purchased from the United States.”

“According to domestic needs, Chinese enterprises independently import certain quantities of goods from the United States through market-based procurement. The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council is carrying out the exclusion of some soybeans, pork and other commodities based on the application of relevant enterprises. For the products within the exclusion range, the exclusion measures such as the 301 measures against the United States against tariffs are adopted. For the procurement of goods within the exclusion range, the enterprise shall negotiate independently, import on its own, and bear its own profits and losses.”

 

And here’s the truth, as of Friday morning (5:15 am est.), the world’s bulk carriers hauling grains, meals, feeds, and softs, are primarily flowing from Argentina and Brazil to Europe and South East Asia, with basically no ships flowing from the US to China.

So the question everyone is asking: Is China actually going to buy $40 billion to $50 billion in US farm products per year?

The answer is no. It was an overstated number by Trump to pump stocks. There was even a report on Thur. detailing how there’s disagreement on the size of agriculture purchases. On Friday morning, CNBC’s Eunice Yoon said that “Beijing’s bottom lines in the #trade talks- that purchases need to be based on market needs. Beijing still wants to message that it is holding the line.”

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

Yes, @JoeSquawk! is offering an olive branch to the Trump administration. However, officials also repeated one of Beijing’s bottom lines in the talks- that purchases need to be based on market needs. Beijing still wants to message that it is holding the line. https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1202833603098370048 

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

#China is working on tax exemptions for some US soybeans, pork imports due to company requests, Customs Tariff Commission of State Council says. It will have range of goods excluded from countermeasures against US Section 301. China firms import based on market, state media says.

Of course, the market doesn’t care whether there is a deal or not, it’s a dip-buying opportunity (sending stocks higher and Treasury prices lower overnight), which is precisely what Trump wanted all along:

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

Not good German Industrial production crashes by the most in 10 yrs..it fell 1.7% in the latest October reading.

(zerohedge)

German Industrial Production Crashes By Most In A Decade

Just when you thought – based on all the talking heads and administration officials constant jawboning – that it was safe to buy stocks because global growth was troughing, Germany’s auto sector has to spoil the party.

Thanks to a 5.4% MoM plunge in auto production in October, German Industrial output fell 1.7% in October, that’s the steepest since April and compared with estimates for a 0.1% gain. This unexpected drop sent industrial output down 5.3% YoY – the biggest drop since November 2009.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Additionally, a new source of weakness has also emerged, with production of capital goods excluding cars now down 5.9% on its August level.

As Bloomberg notes, this means the sector is starting the fourth quarter on a very weak footing and could again place a heavy burden on the economy in 4Q. The weakness also adds downside risk to forecasts for manufacturing to stabilize this quarter (weighing down on GDP growth in 4Q by 0.59ppt).

 

It would appear that the damage U.S.-China trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty have done to the economy that once was Europe’s powerhouse remains high, as German factory orders also unexpectedly slipped in October amid weak demand for investment goods within the country and outside the 19-nation euro area, and business confidence – while stabilizing – remains subdued.

The Economy Ministry acknowledged on Friday that industrial momentum is weak, but also offered a more optimistic take on the outlook. “Recent developments in orders and business expectations signal that a stabilization trend could take hold in the coming months,” it said.

END

EU

A new plan:  all EU members must take in migrants  The UK is so happy to leave under Brexit and thus will not have to take in more migrant

(Kern/Gatestone)

Germany: All EU Members Must Take In Migrants

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has unveiled a new plan to reform the European asylum system. A draft of the proposal leaked to the media shows that all member states of the European Union would be required to take in illegal migrants.

Countries in Central and Eastern Europe are opposed to mandatory relocations on the basis that decisions about the granting of residence permits should be kept at the national level. They have noted that by unilaterally imposing migrant quotas on EU member states, unelected bureaucrats in Brussels are seeking to force the democratically elected leaders of Europe to submit to their diktat.

Indeed, the continuing debate over migration is, at its core, about European federalism and the degree to which the European Union will be allowed to usurp decision-making powers from its 28 member states.

Seehofer presented his four-page plan to reform the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) to the new president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in Brussels on December 2. She is expected to unveil her migration proposals in February 2020, ahead of Germany’s six-month presidency of the European Council which begins in July 2020.

The new plan is aimed at replacing the European Union’s Dublin Regulation, a law that requires people seeking asylum in the EU to do so in the first European country they reach.

Southern European countries — especially Greece and Italy — have complained that, in the context of mass migration from Africa, Asia and the Middle East, the current system places an unfair and disproportionate burden on them. They say that all EU member states should take equal responsibility for migrants reaching European shores.

At the height of Europe’s migration crisis in September 2015, some EU member states voted to relocate 120,000 migrants from Italy and Greece to other parts of the bloc. This number was in addition to a July 2015 plan to redistribute 40,000 migrants from Italy and Greece.

Of the 160,000 migrants to be “shared,” nine countries in Central and Eastern Europe were ordered to take in around 15,000 migrants. Although the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia voted against the agreement, they were still required to comply.

In September 2017, the European Union’s highest court, the European Court of Justice (ECJ), ruled that the European Commission, the powerful executive arm of the European Union, has the legal right to order EU member states to take in so-called asylum seekers. It also ruled that EU member states have no legal right to resist those orders.

Hungary and Slovakia, backed by Poland, argued that the European Union broke its own rules and exceeded its powers when it approved the quota system with a “qualified majority” — around two thirds of the bloc’s members. They also argued that the relocation scheme is a direct violation of the Dublin Regulation.

The European Court of Justice ruled that a qualified majority vote was sufficient because the EU “was not required to act unanimously when it adopted the contested decision.” The ruling, which did not mention the Dublin Regulation, concluded: “The mechanism actually contributes to enabling Greece and Italy to deal with the impact of the 2015 migration crisis and is proportionate.”

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called the court ruling “outrageous and irresponsible” and “contrary to the interests of the European nations, including Hungary.” He added: “The decision puts at risk the security of all of Europe and the future of all of Europe as well.”

In November 2019, the European Court of Auditors reported that of the 160,000 migrants intended to be shared by EU member states, ultimately only 34,705 people (21,999 from Greece and 12,706 from Italy) were relocated.

The leaders of France and Italy, during a recent bilateral meeting in Rome, called on the European Union to introduce a new, automatic system of taking in migrants. French President Emmanuel Macron said that he was “convinced that an automatic European mechanism is needed for the reception of immigrants,” and that EU countries that refused to take part in the scheme should be “seriously penalized.”

The leaked draft of Seehofer’s proposal states that the Dublin Regulation creates “clear imbalances” as “in 2018, 75 percent of all applications for international protection were lodged in only five member states.”

The document argues that the Dublin Regulation is “inefficient” because “in the entire EU, applicants are transferred to the member state (originally) responsible in only 3 percent of cases,” which means that in practice asylum seekers are not sent back to the country of first arrival.

The key part of the document calls for asylum applications to be assessed immediately upon arrival at the EU’s external border. From there, a newly created European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) would “determine” which member state is responsible for taking in the applicant and processing his or her application.

Seehofer’s plan is intended to be permanent and not limited to crisis situations. Notably, the plan does not address the issue of returning illegal migrants back to their countries of origin.

The plan studiously avoids using the politically explosive term “quota” and replaces it with “fair share” (gerechter Anteil). The document also omits the term “mandatory,” although it is assumed throughout that the migrant relocation scheme will be compulsory for all EU member states.

 

If everything goes according to plan, the draft legislation would be adopted by the European Parliament in the second half of 2020 when Germany holds the presidency of the EU. It would then be ratified by the European Council, made up of the leaders of the EU member states.

The new European Commissioner for the Promotion of the European Way of Life, Margaritis Schinas, expressed support for the scheme:

“Migration Commissioner Ylva Johansson and I met Horst Seehofer. We completely agree with Germany. We need this consensus from all Member States, and we are working hard to achieve it.”

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, however, voiced his opposition to the German plan. In an interview with the Czech news agency ČTK, he said that he saw through Seehofer’s semantics:

“We fundamentally reject illegal migration. We also reject allowing smuggling gangs to decide who will live in Europe. We reject quotas and I am surprised that this issue has once again returned to the negotiating table. I hope that the new European Commission will put a stop to this.”

Czech Interior Minister Jan Hamáček said that the Czech Republic would “coordinate our position” with the other members of the Visegrád Four (V4), a cultural and political alliance of four Central European states — the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said that the V4 would not bow to EU pressure to accept migrants:

“The V4’s position is clear. We are not willing to admit any illegal migrants into central Europe. The success and security of central Europe is thanks to our pursuit of a firm anti-migration policy, and this will endure.

“This is why central Europe is one of the most successful regions of the European Union today, and its engine of growth. We do not tolerate any kind of pressure and we Hungarians insist on our right to decide whom to allow into our country and with whom we wish to live.”

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SAUDI ARABIA/USA

Trump boasts that he has now made Saudi Arabia pay for protection against Iran.  He boasted that they have already paid billions

(zerohedge)

Trump Boasts He Made Saudis Pay “Billions” For US Troops

Just before he abruptly canceled a final news conference to cap off this week’s 70th anniversary meeting in London, Trump revealed a stunning conversation he says he had previously with the Saudi king.

Amid a flurry of other headlines covering the tense NATO brouhaha, this one was largely under reported Wednesday: Trump boasted he got “billions of dollars” out of Saudi Arabia for the current heightened American military presence there to ‘deter Iran’.

“You know, Saudi Arabia – we moved more troops there.  And they’re paying us billions of dollars. Okay? You never heard of that before. You’ve never heard of that in your whole life,” he said while sitting next to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in a question-and-answer session.

 

File image: the president’s 2017 trip to Saudi Arabia, via the AFP.

“We moved troops and we paid nothing. And people took advantage and the world took advantage of us.  But we do – we have a good relationship with Saudi Arabia, but they needed help. They were attacked. And, as you saw, we just moved a contingent of troops, and they’re paying us billions of dollars and they’re happy to do so.”

He singled out Obama, Bush and even Bill Clinton for never actually pressing Riyadh on compensation while gloating about being the first president to do so:

“The problem is nobody ever asked them to do it until I came along. Nobody ever asked. Obama didn’t ask. Bush didn’t ask. Clinton didn’t ask. Nobody asked. In fact, they said to me, ‘But nobody has ever asked us to do this.’ I said, ‘I know, king, but I’m asking.’

A week ago it was first reported that the administration was holding talks with the Saudis about cost sharing, after the final contingent of some 3,000 total troops was deployed to the kingdom.

 

Trump with the secretary general of NATO this week, via Getty Images.

However, there’s not yet been confirmation of any ‘deal’ being reached, and certainly not yet word of “billions of dollars,” as Trump put it Wednesday.

“They’ve already sent us billions of dollars – it’s already in the bank,” Trump claimed at the end of his remarks on the Saudis.

 

Interestingly, the whole exchange about the Saudis at the NATO presser was actually precipitated by a question on South Korean cost-sharing to maintain tens of thousands of US troops there. Relations with Seoul have been tense based on White House negotiators’ demands that the country significantly increase its contribution to house to the troops.

While addressing “burden sharing” and South Korea, Trump launched into a discussion about Saudi Arabia’s hosting of US troops at the 29-min mark below:

Trump’s anecdote also came the same day it was revealed the administration is mulling dramatically expanding troop levels to a whopping 14,000 in the broader Middle East to “deter” Iran, as the WSJ reported.

END

ISRAEL/USA

USA and Israel are heading for a defense treating

(zerohedge)

US-Israel Defense Treaty Gaining Steam After Pompeo & Netanyahu Meet

A proposed US-Israeli defense treaty is gaining steam after a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (currently representing an ‘interim’ government) and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Lisbon this week.

Speaking of the controversial defense pact, Netanyahu told reporters of the Wednesday discussion: “The meeting with Pompeo was critical for Israeli security,” and added, “We agreed to promote a defense pact.”

However, such a controversial pact wold have a long way to go in the domestic politics of both nations, considering it would commit the United States to war to defend Israel. This also at a time when Israel has frequently attacked what it deems ‘Iranian targets’ inside Syria and Iraq in what both countries have condemned as acts of brazen aggression.

 

Getty Images

Senator Lindsey Graham has been its biggest and most outspoken Congressional supporter, telling a pro-Israel conference last month, “My hope is that we can draft a mutual defense agreement that is consistent with Israel’s ability to defend herself, consistent with the United States’ strategic interest – which is to make sure that our No. 1 ally in the region doesn’t go by the wayside.”

But the proposal is currently having a more direct impact on Israeli politics, given that opposition rival to Netanyahu, Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz, has vehemently opposed itamid stalled power-sharing negotiations which could send Israelis to the polls for a third time within a year. The opposition says such a defense pact is an invitation for Washington to meddle in Israeli affairs.

Netanyahu has sought to deflect these criticisms, saying, “We will do it with full cooperation with the IDF and security forces and ensure total freedom of action for the US and the IDF.” He has also vowed to “increase the pressure on the Iranians”. Axios reports of the outcome to Wednesday’s meeting further:

Netanyahu said he and Pompeo agreed to promote the issue moving forward. He said he will have to check if it is possible to legally sign a defense treaty with an interim government in place. Netanyahu said he will ensure the defense treaty will not limit the Israel Defense Forces’ freedom of operation.

Given the Trump Administration has made its preference for Netanyahu clear from the start, it appears the embattled ‘interim’ prime minister is touting the defense pact as key reason why he needs to remain in power.

Few details have been revealed in terms of what the defense pact would contain, but it’s clear that the potential for committing the US to more ‘endless wars’ in the Middle East would significantly increase.

 

6.Global Issues

CANADA

My goodness//Canada has not learned how to fudge data like the USA. Canada loses 71,200 jobs, the biggest decline since 2008

(zerohedge)

Meanwhile In Canada: “Terrible” Jobs Report, Worst Since The Financial Crisis

As the US was basking in the warm glow of the best jobs report since January, it was a different story over in Canada, where BMO’s chief economist Robert Kavcic had one recommendation to clients: “avert your eyes.” Here’s why: Canadian employment unexpectedly tumbled by 71,200 in November, the biggest decline since the financial crisis.

 

For those hoping that the details might serve up better news, they too were disappointed: Full-time employment was down 38.4k, and the private sector shed 50.2k. The jobless rate also rose sharply, up four ticks, and also the biggest monthly jump since the recession, to 5.9%.

Hours worked fell 0.3%, and remain an area of persistent disappointment—they’re now up just 0.25% y/y, much more muted than the 1.6% annual job gain. Oddly enough, the one area of strength was wages, with growth accelerating to match a cycle high at 4.5% y/y, according to Kavcic.

Putting it together, BMO’s “grading system” gave this report a 12.1 rating out of 100, which is pretty much as bad as it can possibly get (it is in fact the worst rating in about six years of tracking).

The BMO economist wasn’t alone in slamming the report: it’s a “terrible jobs report,” said Wells Fargo strategist Brendan Mckenna. “There’s really not much you can point to that is positive about those numbers. We’ll probably hover around these levels til year-end.”

With that said, the LFS has been known to have some violent swings, and we could be getting a lot of payback for previous outsized strength in one fell swoop. Looking at 1.6% y/y job growth, and an average monthly gain of 26k through November, those numbers look pretty consistent with underlying economic performance.

The “terrible” number may force the BOC to reassess its monetary policy. Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada presented a strong defense of its decision to stand pat on its policy rate for a ninth straight meeting. Deputy Governor Timothy Lane said policy makers believe Canada’s economy is near capacity. Recent developments, both domestic and global, have bolstered the central bank’s confidence that growth is poised to accelerate over the next couple of years, despite “enduring” uncertainty, he said.

 

In response to the jobs report, and anticipating a resumption in central bank easing, the loonie plunged as much as 0.7% to 1.3259 per dollar, its biggest decline since October…

 

.. putting it in a neck-and-neck race with the British pound for the No. 1 spot among major currencies in 2020 and threatening its status as one of this year’s top performing major currencies. Both the loonie and the pound have strengthened close to 3% this year against the greenback.

7. OIL ISSUES

The shale drilling boom is coming to an end

(Cunningham/OilPrice.com)

Shale’s Debt-Fueled Drilling Boom Is Coming To An End

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

The financial struggles of the U.S. shale industry are becoming increasingly hard to ignore, but drillers in Appalachia are in particularly bad shape.

The Permian has recently seen job losses, and for the first time since 2016, the hottest shale basin in the world has seen job growth lag the broader Texas economy. The industry is cutting back amid heightened financial scrutiny from investors, as debt-fueled drilling has become increasingly hard to justify.

 

But E&P companies focused almost exclusively on gas, such as those in the Marcellus and Utica shales, are in even worse shape. An IEEFA analysis found that seven of the largest producers in Appalachia burned through about a half billion dollars in the third quarter.

Gas production continues to rise, but profits remain elusive. “Despite booming gas output, Appalachian oil and gas companies consistently failed to produce positive cash flow over the past five quarters,” the authors of the IEEFA report said.

Of the seven companies analyzed, five had negative cash flow, including Antero Resources, Chesapeake Energy, EQT, Range Resources, and Southwestern Energy. Only Cabot Oil & Gas and Gulfport Energy had positive cash flow in the third quarter.

The sector was weighed down but a sharp drop in natural gas prices, with Henry Hub off by 18 percent compared to a year earlier. But the losses are highly problematic. After all, we are more than a decade into the shale revolution and the industry is still not really able to post positive cash flow. Worse, these are not the laggards; these are the largest producers in the region.

The outlook is not encouraging. The gas glut is expected to stick around for a few years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has repeatedly warned that unless there is an unusually frigid winter, which could lead to higher-than-expected demand, the gas market is headed for trouble. “A mild winter across the northern hemisphere or a worsening macro backdrop could be catastrophic for gas prices in all regions,” Bank of America said in a note in October.

The problem for Appalachian drillers is that Permian producers are not really interested in all of the gas they are producing. That makes them unresponsive to price signals. Gas prices in the Permian have plunged close to zero, and have at times turned negative, but gas production in Texas really hinges on the industry’s interest in oil. This dynamic means that the gas glut becomes entrenched longer than it otherwise might. It’s a grim reality plaguing the gas-focused producers in Appalachia.

With capital markets growing less friendly, the only response for drillers is to cut back. IEEFA notes that drilling permits in Pennsylvania in October fell by half from the same month a year earlier. The number of rigs sidelined and the number of workers cut from payrolls also continues to pile up.

 

The negative cash flow in the third quarter was led by Chesapeake Energy (-$264 million) and EQT (-$173 million), but the red ink is only the latest in a string of losses for the sector over the last few years. As a result, the sector has completely fallen out of favor with investors.

But gas drillers have fared worse, with share prices lagging not just the broader S&P 500, but also the fracking-focused XOP ETF, which has fallen sharply this year. In other words, oil companies have seen their share prices hit hard, but gas drillers have completely fallen off of a cliff. Chesapeake Energy even warned last month that it there was “substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.” Its stock is trading below $1 per share.

Even Cabot Oil & Gas, which posted positive cash flow in the third quarter, has seen its share price fall by roughly 30 percent year-to-date. “Even though Appalachian gas companies have proven that they can produce abundant supplies of gas, their financial struggles show that the business case for fracking remains unproven,” IEEFA concluded.

END

0PEC agrees to a 500,000 bpd cut in production

(zerohedge)

Oil Jumps After OPEC Agrees To 500,000 bpd Production Cut

One day after the latest OPEC summit in Vienna ended in chaos and disarray, with the cartel unable to decide whether it will cut output further or instead punish violators of the current quote, leaving oil journalists asking questions and begging for pizza, on Friday Saudi Arabia and Russia surprised markets when they spearheaded a deal in which OPEC and non-OPEC nations committed to some of the deepest oil output cuts this decade aiming to avert oversupply and support prices amid declining global demand.

The group of more than 20 producers agreed to an extra 500,000 barrels per day in cuts for the first quarter of 2020, taking the total to 1.7 million bpd, or 1.7% of global demand, in hopes of boosting sagging oil prices in an environment where Saudi Arabia has been increasingly vocal in accusing cartel members and other producers of not sticking to pre-agreed quota levels.

Under the new deal, OPEC will agree to 372,000 bpd in fresh cuts and non-OPEC producers – mostly Russia – an extra 131,000 bpd.

Brent jumped more than 2%, rising above $64 a barrel after Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said effective cuts could be as much as 2.1 million bpd as Saudi would carry on cutting more than its quota.

The impetus behind the cut was all Saudi Arabia, which has been eager to provide a floor for oil in the aftermath of the Aramco IPO which priced yesterday at the top of its range, yet some $300BN below the $2 trillion target previously revealed by Crown Prince MbS.

“The Saudi goal was not necessarily to push oil prices significantly higher, but rather – fresh on the heels of the Aramco IPO – to put a firm floor under them during the first quarter to temper any seasonal weakness,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, quoted by Reuters.

“Best outcome you could have expected. Puts floor under prices at $60 Brent but (we’re) still likely in $60-65 Brent market until the global economy improves and then we could see $65 to $70 Brent in Q2,” said Gary Ross, founder of Black Gold Investors

As Reuters notes, OPEC+ will deepen cuts for the first three months of 2020, shorter than the six- or 12-month scenarios some OPEC members wanted. That said, the net impact of today’s auction may be a wash as the new cuts merely offset expected increases from non-OPEC nations, including top producer the United States, where shale producers are pumping oil at a furious, record pace – yet unprofitably – in order to stave of defaults.

Eleven of OPEC’s 14 member states are participating while embargo-targets Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt. OPEC adds Russia and nine others – Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan and Sudan.

Compliance has been a sticking point since the coordinated cuts began in 2017 with Saudi Arabia cutting more than required in order to offset overproduction from Iraq and Nigeria.

Saudi Prince Abdulaziz said he would continue cutting 400,000 bpd below target and its new ceiling would be 9.744 million bpd. It makes sense that Riyadh would should the bulk of the cuts: Saudi Arabia needs prices of at least $80 per barrel – some $15 higher – to balance its budget, much higher than most other producers, and also needs to support the share flotation of its national oil company Saudi Aramco, whose shares are expected to begin trading next Wednesday.

Prince Abdulaziz told reporters he expected the company to be worth more than $2 trillion in a few months, taking a page out of the Trump playbook in that all officials care about is the affirmation of the market.

 

Despite oil’s kneejerk jump, the question remains: with OPEC’s share of global oil supply now the lowest on record…

… thanks to US shale and Russian production, will today’s deal amount to much if global demands continues to shrink?

 

END

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1094 DOWN .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.58 DOWN 0.146 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3150   DOWN   0.0012  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3174 DOWN .0003 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1094 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 12.55 POINTS OR 0.43% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 281.33 POINTS OR 1.07%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,33%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 281.33 POINTS OR 1.07%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.55 POINTS OR 0.43%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 33% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 54.31  POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1475.70

silver:$16.95-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.79% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.24 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.43 UP 2 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.42% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.49%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,35 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 111 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.64% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1052  DOWN     .0052 or 52 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.67 DOWN .049 OR YEN UP 5  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3122 DOWN .0035 POUND DOWN 35  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 78 basis points to 1.3255

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0349    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0303  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7858 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.84 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.28 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.74 UP 33  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 101.81  1.43%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 111.78 POINTS OR .86%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 70.86 POINTS 1.21%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 139.30 POINTS or 1.51%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 213.32 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.16 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.32 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.64  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.07 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 7 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  59.07//

 

 

BRENT :  64.33

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.84..plus 3 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.28..plus two basis pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1058 ( DOWN 44   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.56 DOWN .160 (YEN UP 16 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.68 UP 27 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3135 DOWN 23 POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7793

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.78   DOWN 0.08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3260 DOWN 83 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0349  (ONSHORE)

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0202 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.30%

 

The Dow closed UP 333.27 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 85.83 POINTS OR 1.00%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.65 CLOSED DOWN .87

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.885%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Wild, Rollercoaster Week Ends Where It Started After Blockbuster Jobs, Return Of “Deal Optimism”

It was a torrid week which started off ugly, with the S&P off to the worst start to a December since 2008 amid fears the trade deal with China would be pushed beyond the Nov 2020 election. However, “optimism” promptly returned after an “anonymous” Bloomberg article said that the trade deal remains on track, and subsequent comments by Trump and Larry Kudlow suggested that talks are progressing, restoring hope that the next round of tariffs, slated to begin on Dec 15, will be delayed.

And then there was today’s payrolls report, which blew away expectations with a 266K print, 29K above the highest Wall Street forecast, on the back of a surge in manufacturing jobs, which jumped by 54K, the biggest monthly increase since 1998, as striking GM workers returned to work.

As a result, after tumbling on the first two days of the week, the S&P staged a remarkable recovery and closed the week virtually unchanged, while 10Y yield mirrored every move in risk almost tick for tick.

 

A big reason for the continued impressive rally was Apple stock, which hit a new all time high above $270 as Tim Cook continues to repurchase every share he can find. The stock is now up more than 71% YTD.

There was another reason for the return of the stock rally: this week the Fed’s balance sheet rose once again, and as we have shown, in the past 9 weeks ever since the Fed resumed repos and eventually POMO, the stock market is up every single week when the Fed’s balance sheet is higher; the only week the S&P was lower was when the Fed’s balance sheet also shrank. Surely, it’s just a coincidence…

As risk soared, safe havens pulled back, and after sliding as low as 1.70%, the 10Y yield was back in the mid 1.80% range.

Elsewhere, after surging from 12 to 18 at the start of the week, VIX was hammered as usual, and closed the week far below its Tuesday high of 18, if notably above where it started the week.

Those wondering if the brief volatility spike at the start of the week was enough to spark a short squeeze in the record VIX future net short, the answer is no, although for the second consecutive week, VIX net specs did shrink modestly.

The Dollar finally ended its 5-day losing streak, the longest since late October, with a bang, rising 0.15% on the day.

Brent jumped on Friday, after OPEC announced a surprise 500kb/d production cut, which however may be insufficient to prevent an increase in the oil glut. That said, Brent was almost unchanged from last Thursday following last Friday’s plunge amid fears Saudi Arabia may overproduce to punish those OPEC nations that violated the production quotas.

While the higher price of oil will be welcome by Saudi Arabia which eagerly awaits the first day of trading of Aramco following the company’s record IPO, it remains to be seen if Aramco’s $1.7 trillion valuation will be sustainable with Saudi Arabia needing a Brent price over $80 to fund all its budget obligations.

So after this week’s fireworks is it now safe to assume that stocks won’t deliver any more major surprises for the balance of 2019? Keep an eye on the Dec 15 tariff deadline: because today’s super strong job number merely assured that Trump now thinks he has even more leverage to demand concessions from China, while the Fed’s fears that trade war is hurting the economy and thus has to be vigilant to the downside, were blown away. Finally, this was and remains a market where one Trump tweet can mean the difference between a successful and catastrophic year for countless traders, and something tells us the coming three weeks, which see both the culmination of trade discussions and Trump’s impeachment, will be anything but quiet.

end

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/this morning USA

Your phony jobs report

(zerohedge)

November Payrolls Smash Expectations: 266K Jobs Added, As Mfg Workers Soar

Heading into today’s November payrolls report, DB’s Jim Reid wrote that “the consensus for November nonfarm payrolls is pegged at 185k (vs. 128k in October) but after Wednesday’s disappointing ADP (67k vs. 135k expected) print it’s likely that the whisper number is lower.” And sure enough, we agreed following our recent article showing how the US labor market was about to crack.

As it turns out, both we and DB were dead wrong, because moments ago the BLS reported that in November, a whopping 266K jobs were added, smashing expectations of 183K and the double digit whisper number, in what was the single best month for US payrolls since January 2019, with the prior jobs print was also revised sharply completing the picture of a labor market in perfect, yet strange, health.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 13,000 from +180,000 to +193,000, and the change for October was revised up by 28,000 from +128,000 to +156,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 41,000 more than previously reported.

The strong job number surprised almost everyone: here is Bloomberg economist James Callan noting that “the labor market is holding up surprisingly well despite a deceleration in economic momentum at year-end and uncertainty on the U.S.-China trade front. Bloomberg Economics expects the labor market to continue to tighten and the unemployment rate to drop to 3.3% by the end of next year.”

Job growth has averaged 180,000 per month thus far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018. In November, notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting the return of GM workers from a strike.

Indeed, as shown in the chart below, the number of manufacturing workers in November soared by 54K, the most since 1998, thanks to the influx of formerly striking GM workers.

The unemployment rate resumed its recent decline, and in November dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%, a fresh 50 year low…

… even as the unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanics posted a modest increase.

More importantly, while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the prior month, slightly below expectations, annual wage growth increased by 3.1%, with last month’s wage growth revised from 3.0% to 3.2%, suggesting employers are responding to a tight labor market; wages for production and non-supervisory workers rose 3.7% annually after a 3.8% gain, which was the best since 2008.

Specifically, Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents to $28.29. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 7 cents to $23.83.

At the same time, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in November. In manufacturing, the average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 40.5 hours, while overtime decreased by 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours. The average workweek of private- sector production and nonsupervisory employees held at 33.5 hours.

 

Looking at which industries added jobs, the BLS has the following breakdown:

  • In November, health care added 45,000 jobs, following little employment change in October (+12,000). The November job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+34,000) and in hospitals (+10,000).
  • Employment in professional and technical services increased by 31,000 in November.
  • Manufacturing employment rose by 54,000 in November, following a decline of 43,000 in the prior month. Within manufacturing, employment in motor vehicles and parts was up by 41,000 in November, reflecting the return of workers who were on strike in October.
  • In November, employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up (+45,000).
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing continued on an upward trend in November (+16,000). Within the industry, job gains occurred in warehousing and storage (+8,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000).
  • Financial activities employment also continued to trend up in November (+13,000), with a gain of 7,000 in credit intermediation and related activities.
  • Mining lost jobs in November (-7,000), largely in support activities for mining (-6,000). Mining employment is down by 19,000 since a recent peak in May.
  • In November, employment in retail trade was about unchanged (+2,000). Within the industry, employment rose in general merchandise stores (+22,000) and in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000), while clothing and clothing accessories stores lost jobs (-18,000).

So what does this mean for the Fed? According to Bloomberg Fed reporter Steve Matthews, Powell and his colleagues are “almost certainly very pleased with this report, which offers some vindication of their view the economy is “in a good place” and there is no need to cut rates again.”

Despite voicing concerns about a trade war inspired slowdown, employers are responding to a tight labor market with slightly higher wages. This too will be welcome at the Fed, which has been disappointed by lackluster paycheck gains. And there’s nothing inflationary about the report — no indication rates would need to move higher anytime soon to head off too-high prices.

As Matthews concludes, “there are still risks to the Fed outlook – from the president’s trade war with China in particular – but for now it’s hard to argue with Powell’s view that monetary policy is “in a good place” as well as the economy.”

Here one key tangent for trade war with China, noted by Bloomberg: The blowout numbers reduce the urgency for Trump to make a trade deal with China since escalating tariffs have so far failed to significantly dent the end

end
which resulted in this:

Stocks, Dollar, & Bond Yields Surge After Huge Jobs Beat

Following a much better than expected jobs gain in November, markets have reacted rather dramatically with bond yields and the dollar gapping higher and stocks jumping…

The dollar erased yesterday’s drop…

Source: Bloomberg

And 30Y Yields are spiking back to the highs on Monday…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Kudlow is due up next on CNBC so that should help too…

end
And now the real story..
with respect to the gain, 54,000 jobs  most of that gain was the return of GM workers.  Another gain in our famous bartender and waitress number.
Why don’t they just take payroll taxes as an indicator for growth?
(zerohedge)

Here Is The Main Reason For Today’s Blockbuster Jobs Report

Following a disastrous ADP print just two days ago, which showed that the US economy added just the second fewest number of private payrolls since March 2010, and a sellside “whisper” number that was about half the consensus expectation of 183K, moments ago the BLS reported a blockbuster jobs report, according to which the US economy added 266K jobs (according to the establishment survey), the biggest monthly increase since January, and a near record divergence with what ADP indicated.

To be sure, peaking behind the headline data revealed some questionable data, like only an 83K increase in employment (according to the Household survey), a 7K drop in mining jobs, a 4K decline in wholesale trade, a stagnant construction sector, lot of seasonal hiring, a catch up in census worker hires, and so on.

Warts aside, many are confused what was behind the surprise upside print, and how the payrolls print came 29K jobs more than the highest forecast among 78 economists. The simple answer: a surge in manufacturing workers. As shown in the chart below, 54K manufacturing workers were added in November, the most in over two decades, or since 1998, as a result of about 41K GM striking workers returning to their jobs.  That said, the November surge was an offset to the 43K slide in October, so on net, the print was largely a wash between the two months.

So besides the one-time surge in manufacturing workers, where else did the jobs come from? Well, as the chart below shows, excluding a drop of 7K miners and 4.3K wholesale traders, every single job category was positive in November, as follows:

  • As has been the case for much of the past decade, in November the biggest job gains came from health care, which added 45,000 jobs, following little employment change in October (+12,000). The November job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+34,000) and in hospitals (+10,000).
  • Employment in professional and technical services increased by 31,000 in November; this included 4.8K new temp jobs.
  • As noted above, manufacturing employment rose by 54,000 in November, following a decline of 43,000 in the prior month.  Within manufacturing, employment in motor vehicles and parts was up by 41,000 in November, reflecting the return of GM workers who were on strike in October.
  • In November, employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up (+45,000).
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing continued on an upward trend in November (+16,000). Within the industry, job gains occurred in warehousing and storage (+8,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000).
  • Financial activities employment also continued to trend up in November (+13,000), with a gain of 7,000 in credit intermediation and related activities.
  • Mining lost jobs in November (-7,000), largely in support activities for mining (-6,000). Mining employment is down by 19,000 since a recent peak in May.
  • In November, employment in retail trade was about unchanged (+2,000). Within the industry, employment rose in general merchandise stores (+22,000) and in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000), while clothing and clothing accessories stores lost jobs (-18,000).
  • Employment in other major industries–including construction, wholesale trade, information, and government–showed little change over the month.

And visually:

Yet for all the attention that manufacturing jobs are getting this month, expect this series to return to its boring monotone of hugging the flat line, if modestly declining. The one series that does matter? Education and Health, because as America gets older and more frail, the one job that will be most in need is for more people to take care of the country’s wealthy baby boomers. Sure enough, if one excludes this category, US jobs have been declining in the past year as the following ECRI chart shows.

Finally, lets not forget the “food services and drinking places” jobs: the relentless dynamo driving the US jobs market. Since February 2010, there have been just 5 months in 117 in which the number of waiters and bartenders in the US has posted a monthly decline, and November was no different.

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Soft data U. of Michigan confidence survey surges in an early December release

(zerohedge)

UMich Consumer Confidence Surges In Early December Read

Having extended its bounce in November, UMich confidence survey was expected to rise modestly more in preliminary December data, but instead it soared (printing 99.2 vs 96.8 prior and well above the 97.0 expectation).

The components both rose for the 4th month in a row…

  • Current economic conditions index rose to 115.2 vs. 111.6 last month.
  • Expectations index rose to 88.9 vs. 87.3 last month.

Source: Bloomberg

Nearly all of the early December gain was among upper income households, who also reported near record gains in household wealth, largely due to increased stock prices and mainly benefitting retirement accounts.

Buying conditions soared across all aspects with Vehicles surging the most (durables rose to their highest level since last December)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the data indicate the strong impact of partisanship on economic expectations, which has widened in the past few months.

 

Source: Bloomberg

Moreover, the gap has grown considerably in the past decade. The average gap between Democrats and Republicans was 18.7 points in the Obama administration and 41.6 points since Trump took office, with the more favorable views held by the President’s party. Importantly, the views of Independents closely track the overall Sentiment Index since Trump took office, with a mean of 96.6 versus 97.0 for all consumers.

The Sentiment Index has averaged 97.0 in the past three years, the highest sustained level since the all-time record in the Clinton administration.

end

October Credit Card Usage Surges To All Time HIgh As Americans Regain Their Spending Mojo

After a torrid summer which saw a surge in revolving (i.e., credit card) debt in July and a near record surge in non-revolving credit in August, in October consumer credit growth crumbled, as Americans only added $9.6 billion to their total debt, largely as credit card usage crumbled in both August and September. However, things were promptly back to normal in October, when total consumer credit jumped by $18.9 billion, almost doubling the previous month’s total, driven by a fresh surge in credit card usage.

 

Total consumer credit rose a 5.5% annual rate to $4.165t, more than double the rate of growth of the broader economy.

While the monthly increase in non-revolving credit, or student and auto loans, which was $11 billion to $3.077 trillion, was in line with recent trends, and higher than September’s $9.4 billion..

 

 

… it was the $$7.9 billion surge in revolving credit (to a new all time high of $1.089 trillion) that was notable, as it reversed the decline of the prior two months (September was revised to a modestly positive print), and back was the second highest print of 2019 as Americans once again went on a credit-fueled shopping spree.

 

And while US consumers had little problem in once again spending like drunken sailors armed with a credit card, when it comes to student and auto loans, there were no surprises, with the former increasing by $33 billion in the third quarter, when auto loans increased by $21 billion, both series hit new record highs, to wit: student loan is now $1.639 trillion, and auto loans are now $1.194 trillion, both all time highs.

end

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Illinois is in such a mess with their pension situation. This state will be the first to fail

(Dabrowski/Wirepoints)

Dismal 2019 Numbers Show Why Illinois Pensions Will Continue To Fail

Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via Wirepoints.org,

The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s special pension report released this week shows yet again how strong markets and ever-more taxpayer funds can’t fix the flaws in the state’s politician-run pension system.

Illinois’ pension shortfall grew to a record $137 billion in 2019, up from $134 billion the year before. That increase continues a near unabated increase in pension liabilities since 2000, when the state’s shortfall was just $16 billion. Given Illinois politicians have shown no appetite to amend the constitution to reform pensions, the shortfall is likely to continue its upward trend.

A lack of reform has taken a real toll on taxpayers and the ability of the state to meet its obligations to teachers, state workers, university employees, judges and lawmakers. The state’s accrued liabilities – the sum of the state’s yet-to-be-paid obligations to pensioners and active workers – has grown so quickly that they have overwhelmed the state’s finances.

That stress becomes quickly evident when those total pension obligations are compared to the state’s available tax revenues over time. Wirepoints covered that in our report Illinois state pensions: Overpromised, not underfunded.

In 1987, obligations to members of the five state-run pension funds was $18 billion, or 1.6 times more than the state’s then-general fund budget of $11 billion.

Today, the state’s obligations total $229 billion, or 5.7 times the state’s budget of $40 billion.

That growth in pension obligations has dwarfed the ability of state taxpayers to fund them.

The lack of reform has also forced Illinoisans to contribute a record $10.1 billion in 2019 to pay for state pensions and the debt service on pension obligation bonds. Retirement costs now consume more than a quarter of the budget. No other state in the nation spends that much of their budget on pensions.

In contrast, Illinois taxpayers in 2009 paid just $3.2 billion toward pensions, or 10 percent of the budget.

Taxpayer contributions to pay for pensions have grown by about 13 percent annually since 2009, more than four times the rate of inflation.

What’s most damning about the current pension system is that the nation’s longest-ever bull market (along with billions in additional state contributions) has done nothing to improve the nation’s worst pension crisis. The funded ratio for the state’s five plans has stayed virtually flat – at 40 percent – since 2009, even though markets are now almost four times higher compared to their lows of the Great Recession.

Illinois has the nation’s third-worst funded rate for pensions in the nation, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.

Contributing to this year’s failure was the pension systems inability to meet their investment goals in 2019. The Teachers Retirement Fund’s investments performed the worst, achieving a return of 5 percent compared to the fund’s assumed 7 percent return. And the State Universities’ Retirement System only managed a 6.1 percent return versus a target of 6.75 percent.

It’s worse than what they say

The state’s unfunded liabilities are now at a record $137 billion, nearly three times higher than when the Great Recession started in 2007. But the official numbers are far lower than what Moody’s Investors Service says Illinois’ true shortfall is.

Using more realistic investment assumptions, Moody’s calculates the shortfall for the five state-run funds at $241 billion. That’s the biggest pension shortfall in the nation.

What Moody’s says matters since it currently rates Illinois’ credit risk at just one notch above junk. Illinois has the worst credit rating of any state in the country, according to the agency. On top of that, Moody Analytics, a sister company, also recently found Illinois to be the nation’s second-least prepared state for a recession.

That’s particularly troublesome considering Illinois has another $121 billion in local retirement shortfalls, according to Moody’s, and $73 billion in retiree health debts, too.

 

Stark warning

Collectively, Illinois’ five pension systems have just 40.2 percent of the funds they need today to be able to meet their obligations in the future, up slightly from 39.8 percent the year before. The university employee fund, SURS, is the best funded of the five, at 42.3 percent, but its funded ratio fell by nearly 2 percentage points this year.

Most notable is the funding ratio for the state lawmaker pensions. Embarrassingly, it’s just 15.9 percent funded.

Wirepoints has remarked several times in the past about the stark warning the state’s pension trend shows: if retirement shortfalls in Illinois continue to grow during a period of remarkable stock market returns, imagine how those funds will fare when the next recession inevitably hits.

Politicians can continue to ignore the crisis, but ordinary residents are seeing their tax bills go up to pay for pensions – both at the state and local level. Just this week, Howmuch.net released a report highlighting the fact that Illinoisans now pay the nation’s highest combined state and local taxes.

Illinois lawmakers must reform pensions, cut retirement debts and roll back collective bargaining laws, or Illinoisans will continue to flee from the taxes imposed to “fix” the crisis.

Read more about Illinois’ worst-in-nation pension crisis:

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Democrats still refuse to accept that they lost the election in 2016. Pelosi: civilization itself is at stake if Trump wins in 2020

(Watson/.Summit/News)

Pelosi: “Civilization Itself Is At Stake” If Trump Wins Re-Election

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Nancy Pelosi has ludicrously claimed that “civilization itself is at stake” if President Donald Trump wins re-election.

The Speaker of the House made the comments during a town hall on CNN last night.

“Civilization as we know it today is at stake in the next election, and certainly, our planet,” said Pelosi.

“The damage that this administration has done to America, America’s a great country. We can sustain. Two terms, I don’t know,” she added.

The remarks followed Pelosi’s outburst yesterday when she snapped at a reporter, telling him, “don’t mess with me!”

The notion that civilization itself is at risk if Trump wins a second term in office is of course completely absurd.

After more than three years, Democrats still refuse to accept that they lost the 2016 election.

 

They have gone from screaming in the streets to seriously claiming that humanity as we know it will cease to exist if Trump wins re-election.

end

Lawyer, and Constitutional expert Jonathan Turley explains the derangement syndrome facing the Democrats

(Turley/zerohedge)

Trump Derangement Syndrome knows no bounds.

*  *  *

Authored by Jonathan Turley, op-ed via The Hill,

The most dangerous place for an academic is often between the House and the impeachment of an American president. I knew that going into the first hearing of the House Judiciary Committee on the impeachment of Donald Trump. After all, Alexander Hamilton that impeachment would often occur in an environment of “agitated passions.” Yet I remained a tad naive in hoping that an academic discussion on the history and standards of it might offer a brief hiatus from hateful rhetoric on both sides.

In my testimony Wednesday, I lamented that, as in the impeachment of President Clinton from 1998 to 1999, there is an intense “rancor and rage” and “stifling intolerance” that blinds people to opposing views. My call for greater civility and dialogue may have been the least successful argument I made to the committee. Before I finished my testimony, my home and office were inundated with threatening messages and demands that I be fired from George Washington University for arguing that, while a case for impeachment can be made, it has not been made on this record.

Some of the most heated attacks came from Democratic members of the House Judiciary Committee. Representative Eric Swalwell of California attacked me for defending my client, Judge Thomas Porteous, in the last impeachment trial and noted that I lost that case. Swalwell pointed out that I said Porteous had not been charged with a crime for any conduct, which is an obviously material point for any impeachment defense.

Not all Democrats supported such scorched earth tactics. One senior Democrat on the committee apologized to me afterward for the attack from Swalwell. Yet many others relished seeing my representations of an accused federal judge being used to attack my credibility, even as they claimed to defend the rule of law. Indeed, Rachel Maddow lambasted me on MSNBC for defending the judge, who was accused but never charged with taking bribes, and referring to him as a “moocher” for the allegations that he accepted free lunches and whether such gratuities, which were not barred at the time, would constitute impeachable offenses.

Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank expanded on this theme of attacking my past argument. Despite 52 pages of my detailed testimony, more than twice the length of all the other witnesses combined, on the cases and history of impeachment, he described it as being “primarily emotional and political.” Milbank claimed that I contradicted my testimony in a 2013 hearing when I presented “exactly the opposite case against President Obama” by saying “it would be ‘very dangerous’ to the balance of powers not to hold Obama accountable for assuming powers ‘very similar’ to the ‘right of the king’ to essentially stand above the law.”

But I was not speaking of an impeachment then. It was a discussion of the separation of powers and the need for Congress to fight against unilateral executive actions, the very issue that Democrats raise against Trump. I did not call for Obama to be impeached, but that is par for the course in the echo chamber today in which the facts must conform to the frenzy. It was unsettling to see the embrace of a false narrative that I “contradicted” my testimony from the Clinton impeachment, a false narrative fueled by the concluding remarks of Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler of New York quoting from my 1998 testimony. Notably, neither Swalwell nor Nadler allowed me to respond to those or any other attacks. It was then picked up eagerly by others, despite being a demonstrably false narrative.

In my testimony Wednesday, I stated repeatedly, as I did 21 years ago, that a president can be impeached for noncriminal acts, including abuse of power. I made that point no fewer that a dozen times in analyzing the case against Trump and, from the first day of the Ukraine scandal, I have made that argument both on air and in print. Yet various news publications still excitedly reported that, in an opinion piece I wrote for the Washington Post five years ago, I said, “While there is a high bar for what constitutes grounds for impeachment, an offense does not have to be indictable,” and it could include “serious misconduct or a violation of public trust.”

That is precisely what I have said regarding Trump. You just need to prove abuse of power. My objection is not that you cannot impeach Trump for abuse of power but that this record is comparably thin compared to past impeachments and contains conflicts, contradictions, and gaps including various witnesses not subpoenaed. I suggested that Democrats drop the arbitrary schedule of a vote by the end of December and complete their case and this record before voting on any articles of impeachment. In my view, they have not proven abuse of power in this incomplete record.

However, rather than address the specific concerns I raised over this incomplete record and process, critics have substituted a false attack to suggest that I had contradicted my earlier testimony during the Clinton impeachment. They reported breathlessly that I said in that hearing, “If you decide that certain acts do not rise to impeachable offenses, you will expand the space for executive conduct.” What they left out is that, in my testimony then and again this week, I stressed that the certain act in question was perjury. The issue in the Clinton case was whether perjury was an impeachable offense. Most Democratic members of Congress, including Nadler, maintained back then that perjury did not meet the level of an impeachable offense if the subject was an affair with an intern.

I maintained in the Clinton testimony, and still maintain in my Trump testimony, that perjury on any subject by a sitting president is clearly impeachable. Indeed, as I stated Wednesday, that is the contrast between this inquiry and three prior impeachment controversies. In those earlier inquiries, the commission of criminal acts by Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton were clearly established. With Johnson, the House effectively created a trapdoor crime and he knowingly jumped through it. The problem was that the law, the Tenure of Office Act, was presumptively unconstitutional and the impeachment was narrowly built around that dubious criminal act. With Nixon, there were a host of alleged criminal acts, and dozens of officials would be convicted. With Clinton, there was an act of perjury that even his supporters acknowledged was a felony.

While obviously presented in a false context, the quotation of my Clinton testimony only highlights the glaring contrast of those who opposed the Clinton impeachment but now insist the case is made to impeach Trump. I have maintained that they both could be removed, one for a crime and one for a noncrime. The difference is that the Clinton crime was accepted by Democrats. Indeed, a judge reaffirmed that Clinton committed perjury, a crime for which thousands of other citizens have been jailed. Yet the calls for showing that “no one is above the law” went silent with Clinton.

As I stated Wednesday, I believe the Clinton case is relevant today and my position remains the same. I do not believe a crime has been proven over the Ukraine controversy, though I said such crimes might be proven with a more thorough investigation. Instead, Democrats have argued that they do not actually have to prove the elements of crimes such as bribery and extortion to use those in drafting articles of impeachment. In the Clinton impeachment, the crime was clearly established and widely recognized.

As I said 21 years ago, a president can still be impeached for abuse of power without a crime, and that includes Trump. But that makes it more important to complete and strengthen the record of such an offense, as well as other possible offenses. I remain concerned that we are lowering impeachment standards to fit a paucity of evidence and an abundance of anger. Trump will not be our last president. What we leave in the wake of this scandal will shape our democracy for generations to come. These “agitated passions” will not be a substitute for proof in an impeachment. We currently have too much of the former and too little of the latter.

end

Is Pelosi Rushing Impeachment Because Dems Know They Have Failed?

The verdict is in: Opinion polls show that weeks of public hearings have done little to change the public’s attitude about whether President Trump deserves to be impeached. By now, the message is clear: The Dems took a gamble on impeachment, and lost. Now, Pelosi is apparently going about clearing the decks so she can get on with her next piece of business: Blaming ‘the squad’ and AOC for the impeachment fiascowhile hoping that throwing the progressives under the bus is enough to protect the dozens of moderate Dems in swing-district seats who delivered the Dems their majority in 2018.

Despite having their press credentials revoked by President Trump, Bloomberg’s Washington bureau still apparently has its finger on the pulse of what’s happening in the capital, and its reporters claim that the articles of impeachment could be finished by next Thursday, opening the door to a vote on impeachment the following week before Congress breaks for the holiday.

Though members of the Judiciary Committee are still debating what to include in the impeachment, BBG says they could begin voting on specific articles as soon as Thursday, citing officials familiar with the chairman’s thinking.

That would clear the way for the entire House to vote before Congress heads to recess for the holidays.

Though Pelosi insists she hasn’t set a deadline, it would appear that both she and President Trump support ‘doing it now’ with regard to impeachment, as President Trump put it in a tweet earlier this week.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Do Nothing Democrats had a historically bad day yesterday in the House. They have no Impeachment case and are demeaning our Country. But nothing matters to them, they have gone crazy. Therefore I say, if you are going to impeach me, do it now, fast, so we can have a fair….

Both parties have their eyes on the electoral calendar, which “is what it is,” as one Democratic Rep told BBG. It’s also notable that many (including Republican witness Jonathan Turley) have accused the Dems of rushing impeachment.

“We are trying to be sensitive to the fact that it is going to spill over into an election year. And we’re trying to wrap it before that happens here in the House to give the Senate the opportunity to set its own timetable,” said Democratic Representative Gerry Connolly of Virginia, a member of the Oversight Committee. “The calendar is what it is.”

 

Meanwhile, pressure is growing on Pelosi to bring USMCA up for a vote by the end of the year, from both Republicans and Democrats. BAML global rates and currencies strategist David Woo told Bloomberg that the passage of USMCA by the end of the year is one of the three “make or break” scenarios girding his 2020 markets projections.

An official familiar with Pelosi’s thinking said that the most powerful Democrat on the Hill is acutely aware that the public’s patience with impeachment is limited, and, after weeks of hearings, Americans are still roughly split, with 47% to 48% percent supporting impeachment, and 44% to 45% opposing.

And the longer the process drags on, the worse the numbers will look. Meanwhile, the longer she delays a vote on USMCA, the greater the risk of being blamed for trying to sabotage President Trump’s economic agenda. After all, Trump’s highest approval numbers stem from his handling of the economy. The president’s paranoia about a recession arriving before election day inspired his attacks on the Fed and, arguably, the central bank’s entire ‘midcycle adjustment’, and it underscores how important the economy is to his re-election hopes.

END
This ought to be fun…The Senate Chairmen on 3 committees demand documents from a DNC contractor, Chulapa.

Senate Chairmen Say Ukraine Meddling ‘Not Debunked’, Demand Docs From DNC Contractor

Despite widespread media reports that the Ukraine meddling narrative has been ‘debunked’, three Senate Republican committee chairmen say otherwise.

According to the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross, Sens. Chuck Grassley, Ron Johnson and Lindsey Graham announced on Friday that they are seeking records from former DNC operative Alexandra Chalupa and Andreii Telizkhenko – a former employee of the Ukrainian embassy who told Politico that Chalupa was “coordinating an investigation with the Hillary team on Paul Manafort,” and that the embassy “worked very closely” with her.

If we can get enough information on Paul [Manafort] or Trump’s involvement with Russia, she can get a hearing in Congress by September,” Telizhenko recalled Chalupa saying in the January, 2017 report (which Politico has desperately been trying to walk back).

 

Chalupa was paid $412,000 by the DNC between 2004 and June 2016, according to the Caller.

Chalupa met throughout 2016 with Ukrainian embassy officials, and sought to trade information related to Manafort, who worked through 2014 for former Ukrainian President ViktorYanukovych, on Jan. 11, 2017, Politico reported. Telizhenko told Politico he was directed by his bosses to help Chalupa in the effort.

In addition to Chalupa’s efforts, multiple Ukrainian government officials spoke out against Trump during the 2016 campaign.

One official scrutinized by Republicans is Serhiy Leshchenko, a former Ukrainian parliamentarian who gained international attention in August 2016 for helping publicize the so-called “black ledger” that detailed payments that the Ukrainian Party of Regions allegedly made to Manafort. –Daily Caller

“Contrary to the popular narrative in the ‘main stream media’ that Ukrainian involvement in the 2016 election has been debunked, or ‘no evidence exists,’ there are many unanswered questions that have festered for years,” said Johnson.

Grassley, meanwhile, says the Ukraine-DNC link has yet to be fully explored.

“While there was no collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, we know that Russia meddled in our democratic processes. However, certain reports of collusion and interference involving Ukrainian officials have not been sufficiently examined, and the few answers that have been given are inadequate,” said the Iowa Republican.

In a leaked email obtained by The Blaze, Chalupa tells the DNC’s Louise Miranda:

Hey, a lot coming down the pipe. I spoke to a delegation of 68 investigative journalists from Ukraine last night at the Library of Congress, the Open World Society forum. They put me on the program to speak specifically about Paul Manafort. I invited Michael Isikoff, who I’ve been working with for the past few weeks, and connected him to the Ukrainians. More offline tomorrow, since there was a big Trump component you and Lauren need to be aware of that will hit in the next few weeks. Something I’m working on that you should be aware of. -Alexandra Chalupa to Louise Miranda

Meanwhile, The Blaze also obtained a covertly recorded conversation in which Artem Sytnyk, Ukraine’s Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU – which Joe Biden helped form) brags about helping Hillary Clinton in 2016.

 

BlazeTV

@BlazeTV

“I don’t know how, but the Americans got an audio recording of Mr. Sytnik’s conversation: He is resting with his family & friends & discussing how he would like to help Hillary.”@glennbeck reveals the Ukraine transcript the media isn’t talking about.https://youtube.com/watch?v=kuvfYE7ZdL0 

Embedded video

Translation via The Blaze:

Kolya: Did they, those Russians, help Trump? Your people?

Sytnyk: I think they did. Yeah. I helped him, too. Not him, but Hillary. I helped her.

Kolya: Yeah. Right. Then her position tottered, right?

Sytnyk: Well, this is how they write about it, right.

Ivan: Hillary’s humanitarian aid … [indiscernible.]

Kolya: Well, I’m about … the commentaries. At the time, we were not [indiscernible.]

Sytnyk: Trump … his purely inner problem … issue … they dominate over the external matters. While Hillary, she is — how shall I put it? She belongs to the cohort of politicians who comprise the hegemony in the US. Both in the US and the entire world, right? For us, it’s … sort of … better. For Americans … what Trump is doing is better for them.

Kolya: Well, we have lots of those American experts here now … [indiscernible.]

Sytnyk: Well, there, you see why Hillary lost the elections? I was in charge of the investigation of their “black accounting” records. We made the Manafort’s data available to general public.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Glencore threatened with class against lawsuit that could run into the billions

Mining and commodities giant Glencore could be hit by a class action lawsuit running into the billions, a law firm said today.  Glencore confirmed today that the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) had launched a bribery investigation into its activities…

https://www.cityam.com/glencore-threatened-with-class-against-lawsuit-that-could-run-into-the-billions/

Pelosi’s call for impeachment indicates that the radical left was adamantly for impeachment.  Remember, Pelosi cut a deal with the radicals to become Speaker.  Nadler got the Judiciary Chair by promising he would do an impeachment.  Did Pelosi also promise impeachment to become Speaker?

If the GOP captures the House in 2020, Trump wins and the GOP keeps control of the Senate, there will be a determined push by numerous GOP Reps to impeach Pelosi, Schiff and Nadler for abuse of power.

WSJ: House Democrats earlier this week released records asserting that Rudy Giuliani was in contact with a phone number associated with the White House budget office, where $400 million in aid to Ukraine was temporarily put on hold this summer.  That assertion, however, is now in doubt. The previously undisclosed phone number cited by the House Intelligence Committee in its impeachment inquiry report, which The Wall Street Journal has identified, isn’t directly linked to the Office of Management and Budget… [A major Team Schiff goof up on what was called critical evidence!]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/doubts-surface-over-giuliani-white-house-budget-office-calls-11575588060?mod=e2tw

White House: Adam Schiff Has Wrong OMB Number

The [Schiff] report details phone calls and texts dating from last spring and summer, including a nearly 13-minute call on April 24 from an “OMB Phone Number.” It is part of the evidence that Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff relied on to build his case for impeachment…

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/12/05/white_house_adam_schiff_has_wrong_omb_number__141899.html

Senate Judiciary Chair @LindseyGrahamSC: Speaker Pelosi is the conductor of the impeachment train in name only.  The American people understand @SpeakerPelosi has 2 choices:  Drive the train or be Run Over by It.  She’s living in fear of The Squad.

@ChadPergram: Grahgam on Pelosi: So much for being prayerful and thoughtful. I think it’s a bad day for the country I think this whole thing is a joke. Mueller I trusted. I don’t trust Schiff. I don’t trust Nadler

@lawyer4laws: Pelosi admits they’ve been planning the Impeachment of President Trump since 2017!  (When asked for her impeachment origin, Pelosi said the Russian collusion probe began 2.5 years ago.)  https://twitter.com/lawyer4laws/status/1202623319251542016

Pelosi flipped out when reporter James Rosen asked her if she hates Trump. Pelosi threatened Rosen with: “As a Catholic I resent your using the word hate in a sentence that addresses me … So don’t mess with me when it comes to words like that.”     https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1202622105130549248

@realDonaldTrump: Nancy Pelosi just had a nervous fit. She hates that we will soon have 182 great new judges and sooo much more. Stock Market and employment records. She says she “prays for the President.” I don’t believe her, not even close. Help the homeless in your district Nancy

@paulsperry_: Justice IG Horowitz has 104 criminal or administrative investigations of alleged misconduct related to FBI employees open as of Sept. 30, according to new OIG report. The criminal investigations involve “serious allegations of official misconduct.”

Office of the Inspector General U.S. Department of Justice

SEMIANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS    https://oig.justice.gov/semiannual/1911.pdf

ABC’s @MollyNagle3: A tense exchange with a voter at  @JoeBiden’s event in New Hampton, IA this morning, where a voter started out by telling Biden he had two problems with him: he was too old, and his son’s work in Ukraine

‘You’re a damn liar, man!’ – Joe Biden blasts Iowa voter, calls him ‘fat’ after man repeats Ukraine smear – “I’m not sedentary,” Biden said. “You want to check my shape on, let’s do push ups together, let’s run, let’s do whatever you want to do, let’s take an IQ test.”…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/05/biden-calls-iowa-voter-damn-liar-and-fat-after-ukraine-accusation.html

[86-year old] Voter attacked by Biden calls him ‘senile’ and says he should drop out of 2020 race

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/voter-attacked-by-biden-calls-him-senile-and-says-he-should-drop-out-of-2020-race

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

 

Dem Impeachment Disaster Continues, IG Report Drops Bombs, Banks Buying Gold

By Greg Hunter On December 6, 2019

The Democrat impeachment in the House of Representatives continued in the Judiciary Committee, and it continued to be a disaster for Speaker Pelosi and the Democrats. The total takedown of the Democrat case against President Trump was destroyed in little more than five minutes by Congressman Matt Gaetz. The hearings are not proving President Trump’s guilt, but his innocence. Of course, the mainstream media is reporting Trump is guilty, and that is a lie according to the evidence. Democrats are taking it on the chin in almost all the polls. Will Pelosi proceed with impeachment? Does she have the votes? Will the Senate trial destroy the Democrats even more? The only fact you can count on right now is the impeachment has been a disaster for Democrats, and saving face with voters may be difficult if not impossible. Pelosi says the Dems will impeach President Trump. We will see if the lies will work.

The FISA/Russia report by the DOJ Inspector General (IG) Michael Horwitz is expected to drop this coming Monday. Reporter John Solomon says, “Forget all the reports of leaks and news stories predicting what’s in it. There is only one person who has seen this report, and that is Attorney General William Barr.” Solomon says there will be many revelations and confirmations of “failures and misconduct” by the FBI and DOJ concerning spying on everything Trump. There has already been criminal referrals for the players in the failed Trump coup, and you can expect many more. There is also an ongoing criminal investigation happening separately by the DOJ on the coup plotters. The coming months are going to be some of the most destabilizing in the history of our nation.

How is the economy going? It might be more accurate to ask: How is the economic manipulation going to continue to prop up the economy? The Fed is pumping out $60 billion a month in QE, and tens of billions of dollars more are being printed up overnight in the repo market to keep credit flowing. Is there any wonder why central banks are buying gold at a fresh record level in 2019?

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

.

-END-

-END-

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

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