DEC 13//GOLD UP $8.60 TO $1476.60//SILVER UP ANOTHER 7 CENTS TO $16.95//QUEUE JUMPING AT BOTH THE GOLD AND SILVER COMEX//HOUSE VOTES TO IMPEACH TRUMP BUT WHEN IT GETS TO THE SENATE, THEY WILL VOTE TO ACQUIT IN 15 MINUTES//BORIS JOHNSON AND HIS CONSERVATIVES HAVE A BIG WIN IN THE UK//CHINA AND USA AGREE VERBALLY TO PHASE I OF A TRADE DEAL AND IT IS BASICALLY A “NOTHING BURGER”//LEE ADLER DESCRIBES IN DETAIL THE REPO MESS AND IT IS A MUST READ THIS WEEKEND//

GOLD:$1476.60 UP $8.60    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$16.95 UP 7 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1475.80

 

silver:  $16.95

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 233/494

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,466.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/12/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/16/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 136
152 C DORMAN TRADING 1
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 42
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 10
661 C JP MORGAN 233
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 8 21
800 C MAREX SPEC 22 49
880 H CITIGROUP 463
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 494 494
MONTH TO DATE: 13,287

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 494 NOTICE(S) FOR 49,400 OZ (1.5365 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  13,287 NOTICES FOR 1,328,700 OZ  (41.328 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

31 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 155,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3201 for 16,005,000 oz

 

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7216 UP 19 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7249 UP 51

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 487 CONTRACTS FROM 203,872 UP TO 204,359 WITH THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 80; MARCH:  1554 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1634 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1634 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1634 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.73 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

19.025   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 9 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED  2121 CONTRACTS. OR 10.605 MILLION OZ..

 

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

20,816 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 20,816 CONTRACTS) OR 104.080 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1892 CONTRACTS OR 9.461 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  104.080 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,193.64   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 487, WITH THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1634 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED: 2121 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1634 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 487 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.88 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.022 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 31 NOTICE(S) FOR 155,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  19.025 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD 2,034 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING CLOSER TO THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 702,900. THE RISE IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED DESPITE A  $2.65 PRICING LOSS ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 10,554 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 200 CONTRACTS, FEB>  10,354 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 702,900,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,588 CONTRACTS: 2,034 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 10,554 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,588 CONTRACTS OR 1,258,800 OZ OR 39.15 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $2.65 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 39.15  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN  $2.65)THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (39.15 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 91,154 CONTRACTS OR 9,115,400 oz OR 283.52 TONNES (11 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,060 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 283.52 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 283.52/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.98% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     6,009.59  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2,034 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($2.65)) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,554 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,554 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 12,588 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

10,554 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2034 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 39.15 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A FALL IN PRICE OF $2.65 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

DEC 13/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 885.93 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

DEC 13/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 487 CONTRACTS from 203,872 UP TO 204,359 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 80; FOR MAR  1554  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1634 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 589  CONTRACTS TO THE 1634 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2223 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.605 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 19.025 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1634 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 50.98 POINTS OR 1.78%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 693.62 POINTS OR 2.57%   /The Nikkei closed UP 598.29 POINTS OR 2.55%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9778 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9778 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9694 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/USA

the farce of the trade deal;  it will never be made public and nothing is in writing!

(zerohedge)

ii)China/USA

Late last night China refuses to confirm trade deal as the local media remains silent

(zerohedge)

iii)And now the truth behind the so called trade deal..i.e. phase one of the deal.  China promises to buy agricultural products but they did not specify quantity. Trump did not roll back the 25% tariff but did cut the Sept 15 penalty tariff in half from 15% down to 7.5%..phase ii negotiations to begin immediately. .in essence there is no real deal.

(zeorhedge).///.two commentaries

iv)CHINA

PBoC states that China’s downturn would last 5 years. I think it would probably be longer

(zerohedge)

v)China/Canada/USA

China detains a Canadian nationalist who headed a New York over the counter company called Fincera. They also arrested other individuals of the firm from their Beijing offices, accusing them of accepting illegal public funds. These guys are a Peer to Peer lending operation

(zerohedge)

vi)The Chinese pledge 40 billion dollars worth of agricultural products this coming year to be followed by 50 billion dollars

The market is discounting this to a high degree..the pundits are saying this will not happen

(zerohedge)

VII)CHINA//USA

Goldman Sachs is very upset with the USA “deal” the tariff reduction is only half of what they expected
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Boris Johnson has a majority government and will implement Brexit by Jan 31/2020

(zerohedge)

ii)Italy

My goodness: Italian government now show numbers that indicate that 42% of all rapes are carried out by migrant
(Watson/Summit News)

iii)GERMANY

Germany furious with the USA for initiating potential sanctions on Germany for engaging in the Nord Stream 2 project
(zerohedge)

iv)Germany

Revolt in her own coalition as Merkel is backing Huawei while other lawmakers are seeing a full ban of products produced by this Chinese behemoth company

(zerohedge)

v)GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK

Deutsche bank desperate to conserve on cash
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

The IEA warns of an oil glut for next year

(Cunningham/OilPrice.com)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Do the opposite of what these crooks advise

(Bloomberg/GATA)

ii )So true..infinite money has arrived and if it is to succeed we need infinite metal price suppression

(Bloomberg)

iii)Palladium rose to a record $1940.34 yesterday and it surpasses the record price of gold. Strange!

(Bloomberg/GATA)

iv)This is what happens when you tax gold coming into a country.  India is experiencing a huge increase in smuggling due to duties

Bloomberg/GATA)

v)Bill Murphy of GATA states that the physical market for gold/silver will overcome derivatives

(GATA)

vi)We brought this to your attention yesterday but it is worth repeating

Ted Butler…

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/EARLY THIS MORNING/USA

Early this morning stocks dive on China’s agricultural buy concerns

(zerohedge)

b)also later in the morning:

Fake news:  Trump is not going to roll back those tariffs..stocks fall/yuan falls
(zerohedge)
c)then…

stocks surge as does the yuan as China confirms a major trade deal is announced.eventually this is proved to be garbage

 

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)This is a must read. Adler is one smart cookie and he tells us the truth behind all of the Fed;s money printing. The dealers and banks are over leveraged with treasury debt and they just puked the debt garbage up

(Lee Adler)

b)Globalists defined and what they want

(Brandon Smith)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)A good commentary from Jonathan turley as he explains the nonsense exhibited by the Democrats to rush the impeachment.

(Jonathan Turley)

b)Sara Carter reports that President Trump will not be removed

(Sara Carter)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2034 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 702,900 DESPITE THE LOSS OF $2.65 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,554 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 200 ; FEB: 10,354  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 10,554 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 12,588 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,554 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINEDA GOOD SIZED 2034 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $2.65). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 12,588 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  12,588 CONTRACTS OR 1,258,800 OZ OR 39.15 TONNES.  ( PLUS THE GAIN IN TONNES OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX 1.496 TONNES)

 

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 1076 open interest stand for a GAIN of 348 contracts.  We had 133 notices filed upon yesterday so we AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED FOR THE NINTH DAY, A HUMONGOUS+++  481 contracts or an additional 48,100 OZ will stand (1.496 TONNES) for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and negated on receiving a fiat bonus.

 

we had:  494 notice(s) filed upon for 49,400 oz of gold at the comex.

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI DECREASE by 75 contracts DOWN to 5162 which is extremely high for a January delivery month.. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A LOSS  OF 1147 in contracts DOWN to 499,981.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 487 CONTRACTS FROM 203,944 UP TO 204,359(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A GOOD 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/THURSDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a LOSS of 21 contracts DOWN to 635. We had 55 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we GAINED ANOTHER 34 contracts or an additional 170,000  oz will stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

After December, we have a loss in the next front month of January of 26 contracts to stand at 898.  The Feb non active month saw a GAIN of 133 contracts UP to 204.  March is a very active month and here we witness a gain of 421 contracts up to 160,339

 

We, today, had 31 notice(s) filed for 155,000, OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 349,639  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  424,974  contracts

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 13/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
109,920.914 oz
Delaware
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

84,886.429

JPMorgan

*arrived from HSBC

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
494 notice(s)
 49400 OZ
(1.5365 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
582 contracts
(58200 oz)
1.810 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
13,287 notices
1,328,700 OZ
41.328 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
for the first time in quite a while, this week we have had considerable gold activity

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 84,886.429 oz

 

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 84,886.429 oz

arrived from HSBC but off a bit in weight.

 

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

ii) out of HSBC:  84,887.639 oz

and this landed into JPMorgan  with 1.2 oz of gold evaporating

ii) Out of Delaware: 16,033.275 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 109,920.914  oz

We had 2 adjustment

i) Out of Int. Brinks a small 99.67 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

and we will deem this a settlement

ii) Out of HSBC  35,931.212 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer acount of HSBC

and we will deem this a settlement

total weight: 35,832.542 oz or 1.114 tonnes

 

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 494 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 36 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,287) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (1076 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (494 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,386,900 OZ OR 43.13 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (13,278 x 100 oz)  + (1076)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (494 x 100 oz )which equals 1,386,900 oz standing OR 43.13 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

We gained 481 contracts or an additional 48,100 oz will stand at the comex as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 35.68 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              43.13 TONNES

 

total: 119.10 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 14.5536 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 119.10  tonnes

 

Thus:

119.10 tonnes of delivery –

14.5536 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 104.54 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 36.804 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,384,975.071 oz or  43.078 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,147,421.40 oz (35.68 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged)  1,184,228.0 tonnes  (35.68 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,761565.479 oz 272.52 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

 

WE HAD 494 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  49400 OZ. (1.5365 TONNES)

 

end

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 13 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 228,306.380 oz
Brinks
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,340.200 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
31
CONTRACT(S)
(155,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
604 contracts
 3,020,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3201 contracts

16,005,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil

 

ii) Into CNT: 600,340.200 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.4% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/313.4 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  600,340.200  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 1001.80 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  227,304.580 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 228,306.380  oz

We had 2 adjustment:

i) Out of CNT: 249,097.942 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer of CNT

ii) Out of Delaware: 74,127.301 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer account of Delaware

 

 

total dealer silver:  86.038 million

total dealer + customer silver:  316.302 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 31 contract(s) FOR 155,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3201 x 5,000 oz = 16,005,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (635) and the number of notices served upon today 31 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 3201 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (635)- number of notices served upon today (31) x 5000 oz equals 19,025,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We gained 34 contracts or an additional 170,000 oz will stand at the comex as they, refused to morphed into London based forwards. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 31 notice(s) filed for 155,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  77,382 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 115,421 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 115,421 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 577 million  OZ 82.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.48% ((DEC 13/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.77% to NAV (DEC 13/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.48%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.66 TRADING 14.18///DISCOUNT  3,25

 

END

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 13/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 885.93 tonnes

*IN LAST 724 TRADING DAYS: 51.32 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 624 TRADING DAYS: A NET 115.73 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

 

 

DEC 13:  SLV INVENTORY

365.605 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.87/ and libor 6 month duration 1.87

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .00

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.90%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.93

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.03

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Do the opposite of what these crooks advise

(Bloomberg/GATA)

JPMorgan advises shorting gold

 Section: 

JPMorgan Top 2020 Trades Say Short Gold, Buy Raft of Stocks

By Joanna Ossinger
Bloomberg News
Thursday, December 12, 2019

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is recommending a risk-on investment allocation for 2020 as the global economy gathers momentum in the wake of the slowdown of recent months.

Stocks are a common theme across the Wall Street giant’s top trades, including bets on Japanese banks, German equities, and emerging markets, a note by strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Marko Kolanovic and John Normand showed Wednesday. The firm maintains an underweight position in bonds, particularly in high-grade corporate credit, and advised betting on gold to slide. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-12/jpmorgan-s-top-2020-t…

 

end

 

Palladium rose to a record $1940.34 yesterday and it surpasses the record price of gold. Strange!

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Palladium is now more expensive than gold has ever been

 Section: 

By Elena Maznev
Bloomberg News
Thursday, December 12, 2019

Palladium rose for a 15th day, heading for its longest run of gains on record and exceeding the highest-ever price of gold.

Spot palladium touched a record of $1,940.34 an ounce today, extending its year-to-date gains to 54 percent. Prices have been driven by supply concerns as mines in South Africa, the world’s No. 2 palladium producer, were shut down for 24 hours this week because of electricity shortages. State power utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. is still implementing rolling blackouts, although at a lower level.

“It seems that nothing can slow palladium,” said Daniel Briesemann, a Commerzbank AG analyst. “Even though we regard the steep price rise as exaggerated, there is no end in sight to the rally.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-12/palladium-is-now-more…

end

So true..infinite money has arrived and if it is to succeed we need infinite metal price suppression

(Bloomberg)

Infinite money is here, and to succeed it requires infinite monetary metals price suppression

 Section: 

Fed Plans More Term Repo Actions to Curb Year-End Turmoil

By Alex Harris
Bloomberg News
Thursday, December 12, 2019

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced plans to conduct repurchase-agreement operations within the second half of December that will span January.

It will now conduct term operations totaling $365 billion, the New York Fed said on its website. The Dec. 16 operation is a 32-day offering with a maximum limit of $50 billion, while the other term actions range from 13 to 15 days with a maximum size of $35 billion, tenors it has used previously.

… 

The central bank also plans to adjust the size of some of its overnight repo operations to provide additional liquidity for year-end. While the offering size will remain mostly unchanged at $120 billion, it plans to conduct a one-day forward settlement operation of $75 billion on Dec. 30 that settles on Dec. 31 and matures Jan. 2.

The New York Fed will also increase the sizes of the overnight actions to $150 billion on Dec. 31 and Jan. 2. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-12/fed-plans-further-ter…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

This is what happens when you tax gold coming into a country.  India is experiencing a huge increase in smuggling due to duties

Bloomberg/GATA)

Gold smuggling on the rise as high prices boost appeal in India

 Section: 

By Swansy Alonso
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News
Thursday, December 12, 2019

Surging gold prices in India are keeping customs officials on their toes.

Illegal inflows have jumped after the Indian government increased import taxes in July and prices surged to record highs in September. Customs officials have arrested people for attempting to smuggle in gold by concealing it in bags, clothes, and their rectums. On one flight alone, officials caught 30 passengers trying to smuggle in 7.5 kilograms (16.5 pounds) of gold into Chennai.

… 

“The propensity to smuggle now is very high because every time you increase the tax rate, you give that much more incentive to smugglers,” P.R. Somasundaram, managing director for the region at the World Gold Council, said in an interview. “So it will continue like this unless measures are taken by not just the government but also the trade which shares an equal responsibility to obliterate the grey market.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-smuggling-rise-high-prices-220000195…

end

Bill Murphy of GATA states that the physical market for gold/silver will overcome derivatives

(GATA)

Physical market for metals will overcome derivatives, GATA chairman tells SBTV

 Section: 

10:26p ET Thursday, December 12, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed by Patrick Vierra of Silver Bullion TV, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy says physical demand for the monetary metals is getting closer to overwhelming the derivatives market that has been suppressing metals prices. The interview is 34 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7mtHqVesG8&t=

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

We brought this to your attention yesterday but it is worth repeating

Ted Butler…

Ted Butler: The missive motive

 Section: 

11:25p ET Thursday, December 12, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler speculates today that JPMorganChase has sabotaged the bank lending system to warn the U.S. Justice Department against continuing to prosecute the bank for manipulating the monetary metals markets. Butler’s commentary is headlined “A Missing Motive” and it’s posting at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here —

http://silverseek.com/commentary/missing-motive-17804

— and at 24hGold here:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-a-missing-motive.aspx?ar…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Hi Bill/Harvey,
South Africa is now in such a dire situation that some commentators are talking about its imminent de-industrialization. The principal source of this catastrophe is the complete collapse of the national power grid and Eskom is the monopolistic service provider. This corporation has debts of about half a trillion rands and very little to show for this debt,except a few degradated antique power stations  that are almost  too far gone for rehabilitation (so Nigerian).
The horrendously corrupt relationship between Jacob Zuma and three Gupta brothers from India targeted Eskom as a fertile source of billions of rands extracted via various sham contracts etc..The USA recently did South Africa a favour by branding the Gupta Brothers as financial terrorists, but the damage has been done and the African continent is fast loosing its main potential generator of economic progress.
In Ukraine, certain inexplicable and therefore prima facie corrupt payments were made to the ‘boy’ son of the USA vice president.I see some potential similarities between the Bidens and the Guptas.I believe that it was incumbent upon Donald Trump to seek to understand the full ramifications of this inexplicable relationship between Ukraine and the Bidens before dispensing hundred of million of dollars to that Government. I believe that Trump should have  rather been impeached if he had not sought further and better particulars about what was going on.
 In view of the Eskom collapse,I cannot have any confidence in the future of Sibanye, but thankfully both Anglo American Gold and Goldfields have reduced their South African exposure to just a single operation each.
Regards
Nicholas
end
More on the gold and silver comex story form our physical expert J Johnson
(courtesy J Johnson)

Hello McFly! Look At The “Fix” In Silver’s Price!

Posted December 13th, 2019 at 8:41 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Finally-a-Friday Folks!

      Gold again, is trading higher but is still stuck in a month long channel with the trade now at $1,477.60, up $5.30 with the high nearby at $1,480.00 and the low down at $1,465.50. Silver is up 13.1 cents with the March contract at $17.080 with the high only a penny away and the low at $18.895. So far today, the biggest mover in the first paragraph is the US Dollar, down 54.4 points with the value pegged at 96.840 after being dipped down to 96.715 with the high at 96.910. All of this has already happened, before 5 am PST, the Comex open, the London Close, after Boris killed the competition, and the starting of the Triple Witch Week.

      In Venezuela, Gold is now trading at 14,757.53 Bolivar, losing 17.98 (and as our Dollar loses value) with Silver at 170.587 Bolivar, gaining 1.499 in the overnight. In Argentina, Gold has gained another 8.96 A-Pesos with the trade at 88,362.66 with Silver at 1,021.96 Pesos, gaining another 10.73 Peso’s. Once again, this a great way to wake up if you’re sitting in a 5,000-ounce contract and on the right side of the trade too! In Turkey, their Lira has Gold’s value pegged at 8,570.51 Lira gaining 8.32 with Silver now at 99.0597 Lira, a gain of 1.0755.

      It has been our opinion that the Comex Silver Delivery Demand System has issues, as we observed the opening of the ICE session at 4pm pst when the Resolute Buyer stepped in with an immediate 11 lot purchase within the first 15 minutes of trade pushing the price to $16.88, a positive move of 3.5 cents from the COMEX close. It’s what happened immediately after this that raises my concern when the very next SINGLE LOT purchase sent the delivery month’s price to the negative at $18.825. At this time, the Volume in the trade was at 12 (that 11-lot purchase plus that singular low-price trade), now the Volume is at 16 and the last trade was at $16.855 meaning there were only 4 more purchases over the last 12 hours. How can a single 5,000-ounce trade overpower a 55,000 ounce buy order pushing the value to a lower price? Hello McFly! This is the “fix” in price! The idea a single lot order can outweigh an 11-lot purchase in Physical Deliveries should be questioned and by the authorities, but they will not go there, because they are already complicit, and it’s why we are here challenging everything we see. Today’s Open Interest in the Delivery Month is now at 635 Demands for Physical proving a 21-count drop from yesterday’s tally and with the Volume at 61 posted (yesterday).

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest had to gain more paper shorts in order to keep the (delivery) price steady with the total count now at 204,436 Overnighters, proving the increase of 517 more pieces of paper vs the real as our Resolute Buyer, still has the shorts up against the ropes.

      Normally I wouldn’t add any Gold data to my write ups but yesterdays Red Gold Deliveries had more Volume than the that Standing for Delivery. December 12th’s Physical Gold Demands stood at 728 (100-ounce contracts) and with a Volume of 755 at the close. Now the Open Interest in the Deliveries Cycle stands at 1,076 fully paid for contracts expanding the physical buy orders by 348 obligations increasing the purchases over 50% in one day. Probably nothing, but who knows?

     Friday the 13th is here, and right before the Triple Witch Week too, which should be of interest moving forward. Monday, we roll out of all the currencies that make up the basket of currencies we call the US Dollar Index. Then we observe the rollouts of the old Treasuries into the new. At the same time, we have been witnessing 100’s of billions of dollars being printed, over several months, in order for the money changers to keep telling us how wrong we are about the overall markets and specifically the real money of the world’s population, Silver and Gold. They have to print in order to tell us how wrong we are, in our opinion, that won’t last much longer. Have a great weekend and keep that smile on your face and a positive attitude in the head, no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

J.Johnson

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9778/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9694   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 51.98 POINTS OR 1.78%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 693.62 POINTS OR 2.57%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 598.29 POINTS OR 2.55%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 96.83/Euro FALLS TO 1.1177

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.62/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.71 and Brent: 65.06

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.25%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.31% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.44%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.56: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.36

3k Gold at $1472.15 silver at: 16.98   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 18/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.57

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.62 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .98727 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0984 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.25%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.88% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.30%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7972..

Santa Claus Has Come To Town: Stocks Soar To All Time Highs On Trade And Tories

While China steadfastly refuses to confirm that the “Phase One” trade deal, announced with much pomp and circumstance, by Donald Trump on Thursday, has been agreed upon, algos don’t care and between “news” the trade war is over – similar to how the trade war was “over” in December 2018, May 2019, and October 2019 – and the Tories blowout victory in the UK, have unleashed a sea of green in global capital markets, sending stocks across the world to new all time highs as two of the darkest clouds on the global investment horizon has now been cleared.

The double dose of delight sent safe-haven sovereign bonds and the Japanese yen lower as markets scaled back expectations of more interest rates cuts around the world.

“Global investors have been given two of the biggest gifts on their Christmas list and should be appreciative for a while at least,” said Westpac FX analyst Sean Callow. “Global equity indices such as MSCI World should set more record highs and sterling could push above $1.36.”

For those who missed the the past 24 hour rumorgasm, here is a brief rundown:

  • China and the US have reportedly struck an agreement on some tariff reductions and a delay to the tariffs that were due to come into effect on December 15th according to sources which added that China has agreed to purchases $50BN in agricultural goods in 2020, while other source reports also stated the US will announce the trade deal today.
  • Fox Business’ Lawrence tweeted that a source stated the December 15th tariffs will not go forward and there will be a small reduction in tariffs on some Chinese goods as a gesture of good will, while Phase Two of the negotiations will begin after 2020 elections.  Furthermore, the source said a signing ceremony will not happen with President Xi and there will be a rollout of the agreement by the White House Friday, while the Chinese have requested that the language of the never be made public.
  • However, China leaders are yet to accept the deal (referring to the ‘big deal’ US President Trump tweeted about) due to a number of issues: USD 50bln purchases is a hard target, other trade partners complaining at a reallocation who could challenge the WTO., CNBC’s Yoon citing sources.
  • Though Beijing sees the benefit of an imminent deal, it still wants to ensure that China does’t appear to have been pressured into making concessions, according to WSJ.
  • Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry reiterates that China is committed to resolving issues but the deal needs to be mutually beneficial, without commenting on the deal.

So in short, no there is no deal – yet – but there may be, hence more optimism.

Meanwhile, the British pound reached its highest since mid-2018 as UK election results showed a blowout victory for Boris Johnson and the Tories, and wiped out any chance of a victory by the left-wing Labour opposition or a hung parliament, which had been a worry for investors.

Prime Minster Boris Johnson won a landslide majority in Britain’s Parliament, giving him the power to deliver Brexit, though trade talks with the European Union were set to drag on for months yet and a hard Brexit may still take place at the end of 2020.  The pound had started to see some profit-taking but was still up almost 2% at $1.3390. It reached its highest levels against the euro since mid-2016. UK shares exposed to the domestic economy surged as soon as they opened.

“Over the next 1-2 months I think it is about long-term buyers of sterling returning to the market that might have been on the sidelines up until this point,” said NatWest Markets head of G10 FX strategy Paul Robson. Sovereign wealth funds could now start buying UK equities again and foreign direct investment could pick back up, he said.

Trade optimism had already lifted Wall Street to record highs, and markets bought not only the rumor but also the news (which has yet to be confirmed by China): U.S. equity futures all pointed to a fresh all time high on Wall Street, while stocks marched upward from Beijing to Paris. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to another peak. On Thursday, the Dow closed up 0.79%, the S&P 500 gained 0.86% and the Nasdaq rose 0.73%.

Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 Index vaulted above its record-high close, rising 1.5% higher on the twin boosts, while in Britain the FTSE 250 index soared as much as 5.4%, the most in nine years. Shares in all major Asia markets climbed.

“If the U.S. cuts the current tariffs to some extent as reported, that is not something markets have priced in, so we could see a further leg up,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 1.5% to its highest since late April, as Asian stocks advanced, heading for their biggest gain since June. Nearly all markets in the region rose, with Hong Kong leading gains and Vietnam retreating. Technology and finance were among the strongest sectors. The Topix climbed to a 14-month high, buoyed by Toyota Motor and Keyence. Japan’s finance ministry plans to issue about 4.4 trillion yen ($40 billion) in bonds to finance an extra budget to support economic growth. The Shanghai Composite Index posted its biggest gain since August, with Kweichow Moutai and China Life Insurance offering strong support. China signaled more effective fiscal policy to stabilize a slowing economy. India’s Sensex advanced for a third day, driven by financial firms. The country’s inflation galloped to its highest level in more than three years

That was bad news for bonds, and yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries shot up to 1.91%, a rise of 12 basis points in just two sessions. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield touched a six-month high at -0.217%. Ten-year gilts underperformed but halved their opening losses as the curve bear flattens. Interest rate futures slipped as investors priced in less chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year – a move seen across most developed nations including the UK.  Peripheral bonds tighten with Italy outperforming, the 10y spread ~5bps tighter on the session

Other safe harbors also took a beating, with the yen sliding across the board. The dollar gained to 109.60 yen having risen 0.7% overnight. The dollar fared less well elsewhere, slipping 0.5% to 96.792 against a basket of currencies, as the pound and the euro both benefited from the UK election result. The dollar also fell to an 18-week low against the yuan, since any trade truce would be seen as a boon for the export-heavy Chinese economy. It was at 6.9762 yuan having shed 1.2% overnight.

However, the yuan eased in offshore trading, after punching through 7 per dollar with the biggest advance in a year on Thursday, after it emerged that China has refused to endorse Trump’s trade deal.

The risk on surge also lifted commodities, with oil prices rallying on hopes a trade deal would support global growth and Chinese demand. U.S. crude jumped above $60 a barrel for the first time since September.

“Risk appetite ran wild after Trump signaled that he made a deal with China and that will only be positive for global demand forecasts for crude,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Spot gold was flat at $1,467.60 per ounce.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,180.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.6% to 414.10
  • MXAP up 1.6% to 168.98
  • MXAPJ up 1.6% to 543.17
  • Nikkei up 2.6% to 24,023.10
  • Topix up 1.6% to 1,739.98
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.6% to 27,687.76
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.8% to 2,967.68
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 41,037.61
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,739.68
  • Kospi up 1.5% to 2,170.25
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to -0.244%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.1175
  • Brent Futures up 1.1% to $64.90/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.8 bps to 0.886%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.445%
  • Brent Futures up 1.1% to $64.90/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,471.57
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.6% to 96.86

Top Overnight News

  • The size of his parliamentary majority gives Boris Johnson a free rein to take Britain out of the European Union in January after almost four years of gridlock. The decisive win means he can also define Britain’s future relationship with the EU
  • The Scottish National Party took back most of the districts it lost two years ago, galvanizing the party in its pursuit of the independence referendum leader Nicola Sturgeon says is necessary after her country opposed leaving the European Union
  • If Christine Lagarde carries on as she started, she may turn out a lot less trigger-happy than her predecessor as European Central Bank president
  • European Central Bank Governing Councilmember Francois Villeroy de Galhau says focusing quantitative easing on green assets wouldn’t be a sufficient response to the challenges of climate change
  • Britons are expecting a slightly slower inflation than a few months ago and fewer expect interest rates to rise over the coming year, a Bank of England survey published Friday showed
  • Boris Johnson’s decisive win in the U.K. election clears the way for his government to speedily name the next Bank of England governor, handing them part control of an economy that continues to limp along and which will soon face fresh Brexit risks

A broad heightened appetite for risk was seen overnight with the Asia-Pac majors bolstered and US equity futures extending on Wall St’s fresh record levels as markets reacted to reports that US and China have struck an agreement on some tariff reductions and a delay to the December 15th tariffs, while China is said to have agreed to purchases of USD 50bln in agricultural goods in 2020. In addition, focus was dominated by the UK election results in which PM Johnson’s Conservatives are on course for an overwhelming 86-seat majority according to exit polls. ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.6%) were lifted with financials after banking regulator APRA advised ADIs it will delay finalizing consultation on implementation of product responsibility requirements until H1 next year but with hefty losses in gold miners restricting gains for the index, while the Japanese benchmark broke through the 24k milestone to print its highest since October 2018 with a somewhat disappointing Tankan survey doing little to contain the rally. Hang Seng (+2.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.8%) were also buoyed on the flurry of positive trade rhetoric as aside from the source reports of an agreement being reached in principle, there had also been optimistic comments from US President Trump regarding a trade deal and WSJ initially noted US negotiators offered to cut existing tariff rates by up to 50% although no official announcement has been made yet from either side. Finally, 10yr JGBs retraced some of the prior day’s losses which had been the by-product of the dramatically improved trade climate, with the rebound also helped by the BoJ’s presence in the market for over JPY 1.1tln of JGBs concentrated in 1yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Thai Political Risk Climbs as Opposition Party Plans Protest
  • After 50% Returns, 2020 May Be Even Better for Indian IPOs
  • Abe’s India Visit Postponed as Violent Protests Intensify
  • Cash Woes at India Shadow Lenders Risk More Bad Debt at Banks

European bourses are boosted in early trade [Eurostoxx 50 +1.40%] with upside seen across the board on the back of positive US-China trade developments, coupled with tailwinds from the landslide victory by the market-friendly Conservatives in the UK General Election. UK’s FTSE 100 (1.8%) initially lagged its peers amid FX dynamics as Sterling soared in light of last night’s election exit polls. The index then recovered and now outperforms the European equity sphere as Sterling gives up some gains and large-cap election/Brexit sensitive domestic stocks receive impetus. Banking names such as RBS (+11.1%), Barclays (+9.0%), Lloyds (+8.0%) and homebuilders including Taylor Whimpey (+13.3%), Persimmon (+11.6%) and Barratt Developments (+10.5%) all jumped to the top of the index amid more certainty surrounding Brexit under a Tory government. Meanwhile, UK utility companies (SSE +9.5%, Centrica +8.5%) join the top ranks amid dwindled prospects of privatisation under the Conservatives, whilst BT (+8.0%) similarly benefits as Labour previously noted it wanted to nationalise the Co.  Sectors are all in the green with some underperformance seen across defensives, whilst substantial outperformance is experienced in financials, utilities and consumer discretionary amid the aforementioned movers. Outside of the UK, other notable movers include Delivery Hero (+15.5%) whose shares spiked higher amid source reports that the Co. are reportedly approaching an agreement to purchase Woowa in a potential USD 4bln deal. Airbus (AIR FP) trades higher after Qantas airways selected the Co. as its preferred supplier over Boeing. PSA (+3.1%) shares are supported amid speculation that it may sign its merger with Fiat Chrysler (+2.0%).  Elsewhere, SAP (+1.8%) shares are buoyed by the overall risk sentiment and sub-par guidance from rival Oracle (-1.9% pre-market). On the flip side, Henkel (-3.3%) receives a double whammy from a guidance cut and a broker downgrade.

Top European News

  • Johnson Wins Crushing Majority in Election That Upends Britain
  • Delivery Hero Buys Biggest Korean Takeout App in $4 Billion Deal
  • U.K.’s Jeremy Corbyn to Step Down as Labour Party Leader
  • Finnair CEO Sees Cash Flow Funding $4.5 Billion Fleet Plan

In FX, sterling has come off the boil, but still bubbling on the back of Thursday’s UK GE that culminated in a clear win for the Conservative Party and hands PM Johnson a convincing majority to get Brexit done, in his very own words. The Pound rebounded after exit polls confounded pre-vote surveys suggesting a much closer contest between the Tories and main protagonist Labour, with Cable peaking just above 1.3500 and Eur/Gbp breaching 0.8300 at one stage. However, some of the euphoria and relief has subsequently waned and the former probed sub-1.3400 territory before returning to the big figure where the heftier of 2 large option expiries reside (1.4 bn compared to 1 bn at 1.3450).

  • EUR/NZD/CHF/CAD/AUD – All firmer against the Greenback that has lost more ground almost across the board, initially on dovish FOMC vibes then US-China Phase 1 and tariff impulses before Sterling’s election exertions pushed the DXY over the edge (through 97.000 and now meandering between 96.922-712). The single currency has recouped all and more of its post-ECB presser losses and hurdled key chart resistance in the form of the 200 DMA (1.1154), but stopped just short of 1.1200 in contrast to the Kiwi that has now cleared 0.6600 and recouped some declines relative to the Aussie. Indeed, Aud/Nzd has pulled back towards 1.0450 as Aud/Usd pivots 0.6925 and could be hampered by large option expiries rolling off between 0.6885-0.6900 (1.6 bn). Elsewhere, the Franc has bounced within 0.9808-62 parameters and Loonie likewise in a 1.3151-86 band, with the latter also benefiting from positive USMCA developments.
  • JPY – The lone G10 loser on further safe-haven unwinding rather than a bleak Japanese Tankan it seems, as Usd/Jpy leaps from just below 109.00 and above 109.50.
  • EM – The Yuan has given up some gains vs the Dollar, but crucially or interestingly the Cnh is holding between 6.9850-9275 even though the PBoC fixed the Usd/Cny midpoint at 7.0000+. Similarly, the Lira remains firm and over 5.8000 despite Turkey’s Defence Ministry declaring that the order for a 2nd Russian S-400 missile system consignment could be struck soon. Elsewhere, the Rouble has largely taken the expected 25 bp CBR rate cut in stride and is still on track to extend its winning run beyond 62.5000.

In commodities, there is little to report thus far with WTI and Brent futures advances amid the broad risk appetite in the market which emanated from the positive US-China trade headlines and the fallout from the UK General Election. The benchmarks have surpassed 60/bbl and 65/bbl respectively, with the former dipping back below. Eyes will remain on the official announcement of the trade deal from the US side and any comments from the China side confirming whether the two sides struck a deal – sources however noted that China thinks a USD 50bln purchase of ag good is a “hard target”, according to CNBC’s Yoon. Elsewhere, gold prices remain relatively flat downside from safe-haven outflow is countered by a weaker Buck. The yellow metal hovers in a narrow

US Event Calendar

 

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
    • Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.5%; Import Price Index YoY, est. -1.2%, prior -3.0%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%; Export Price Index YoY, prior -2.2%
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

An early “Early Morning Reid” today as I’ve been up all night watching the UK election results unfold and will need to get a little bit of sleep soon. The Conservative Party looks set for a very strong majority with estimates at 3:30am, after 293 out of 650 seats declared, with a projected +65-75 seat majority – notably ahead of most sensible recent predictions but a bit below the exit poll +86 seat prediction. With the exit poll release, Sterling immediately rallied +2% and briefly edged up a bit more and above $1.35 soon after. As we go to print, it’s trading at $1.346 (+2.3% overnight). Remember it was at $1.2033 in early August. Well done to our readers who in the survey results we published yesterday (more below but link here ) said that of all the FX majors, Sterling was their favourite currency over the next 12 months. A good start with only 364 days to go. Interestingly readers also thought President Trump had an 80% chance of winning next year. Perhaps the severe rejection of the hard left in the UK might have implications for the Democratic nomination. Will they look at how hard it is to win an election in a like-minded country from the far left? One to ponder. Anyway, the clear election result combined with positive news on the chances of an imminent phase-one US/China trade deal has made it a very good 12-18 hours for risk.

More on trade below but what next for the UK? The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement will pass soon, possibly before year-end and the UK will leave the EU by the end of January. Then the fun and games with the future relationship will begin immediately after. The big question is whether Mr Johnson will stand by his commitment to have the transition end on December 31st next year and in reality only have a loose ‘harder’ relationship with the EU or whether he decides to pivot and go for a more ambitious, ‘softer’ relationship that will take time to negotiate and will require an extension to the transition agreement. Difficult to tell at the moment. The big majority allows him to freedom to choose either path. A separate longer-term issue that will bubble in the background is the expected very strong SNP performance in Scotland. The independence issue won’t go away even though the big Tory majority gives little scope for it to come to fruition.

Back to yesterday’s big trade news now, and markets rose after a tweet from President Trump that said “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!” Sentiment was further boosted by a Dow Jones story, which reported sources saying that that the US had offered to cut existing tariff rates by up to 50% on $360bn worth of Chinese imports, while also cancelling the new tariffs scheduled to come into effect from Sunday. Later in the US session Bloomberg reported that Mr Trump had signed off the phase-one deal presented to him by his advisors earlier that evening with just the legal text to finalise. If agreed, this would be more positive than recently hoped as it’s happening sooner and with more tariff cuts. Let’s see if we hear from China soon on this.

The Trump tweet initially saw the S&P 500 climb +1.09% in the first hour of trading before closing +0.86% and at a record closing high as did the NASDAQ (+0.73%) but the Dow Jones (+0.79%) didn’t quite hit record levels but settled just below. The Philadelphia semiconductor index did surge by +2.71% to record highs though. Interestingly the US financial index finally surpassed the 2007 all-time highs. 10yr Treasury yields also rose on the news, up +10bps at 1.8922%, with the 2s10s curve steepening by +5.8bps. In Asian trading 10yr yields are up another +2bps and the curve another +1bps steeper. Earlier in Europe, the STOXX 600 was up +0.33%, while yields followed the US higher too, with bund yields up +5.2bps, along with OATs (+4.7bps) and BTPs (+2.8bps). Safe havens suffered, however, with gold down a few tenths, having been +0.81% at its intraday high, while the Japanese Yen weakened around -0.6% against the US dollar.

In the rest of Asia, markets are strong with the Nikkei (+2.43%), Hang Seng (+1.72%) and Shanghai Comp (1.20%) all up alongside S&P 500 futures (+0.42%). The onshore Yuan has risen the most in a year on the trade news up around 1%.

A reminder we published the results of our second monthly investor survey (link here) yesterday. On the whole market participants were less pessimistic on the global economy than last month and a bit more neutral (there’s not yet a bias towards thinking things are improving) even though they were more worried about the trade war than their sanguine view last month. After last night’s news they may be more optimistic again now. Results generally showed a more positive view over 3 months than over the next 12 months for most risk assets. Finally the global financial community’s favourite ever Xmas song is Last Xmas by Wham followed by Fairytale of New York. Very good choices! See the link for much more.

The other main event outside the election and trade news yesterday came from Christine Lagarde’s first monetary policy decision as ECB President. The Governing Council left interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations, while the statement maintained its language from Draghi’s last meeting in saying that the ECB’s Governing Council “expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics”. As in October, the statement said that asset purchases would conclude “shortly” before interest rates were increased.

In terms of what the ECB expects for those inflation dynamics, their newly published forecasts showed HICP inflation at +1.2% in 2019, the same as in September, and at +1.1% in 2020, up a tenth. For 2021 and 2022, they then see inflation rising to +1.4% and +1.6%, respectively. Whether the market is buying this is another matter, but five-year forward five-year inflation swaps did rise +1.77bps to 1.272%, their highest level for nearly three months. For real GDP growth, this year was revised up a tenth to +1.2%, while next year was down a tenth to +1.1%, before +1.4% growth in 2021 and 2022.

The statement didn’t mention the upcoming Strategy Review, but after her statement Lagarde touched on the issue, saying it would be “comprehensive”, would start in January, and be completed before the end of next year. She also told markets not to “over-interpret” her comments, and said that “every president has his or her own style of communicating”. On the question of whether she was a hawk or a dove on monetary policy, she said “I’m neither a dove nor a hawk. My ambition is to be this owl that’s often associated with a little bit of wisdom.” The euro strengthened as Lagarde spoke, although the moves were reversed following the tweet from President Trump to end yesterday unchanged against the dollar. The Euro then rose again with GBP after the exit poll, and is trading up +0.43% in Asia.

Looking briefly at other central bank announcements yesterday, the SNB kept rates on hold at -0.75% with President Jordan defending the continued policy of negative interest rates. Elsewhere, the Central Bank of Turkey cut rates by 200bps to 12.0% (vs. 12.5% expected). In spite of the bigger-than-expected cut, the Turkish lira ended the session +0.51% against the US dollar.

Back to yesterday and weekly initial jobless claims in the US rose to 252k (vs. 214k expected), which is the highest reading since September 2017. The 4-week moving average moved up to 224k, the highest level since May. That said, the spike did reflect some volatility around the Thanksgiving holiday. Also in the US, the PPI reading came in at +1.1% yoy (vs. +1.3% expected). Meanwhile from Europe, the industrial production data for the Euro Area was in line with expectations, with a -0.5% contraction in October, while the previous month was revised down two-tenths to a -0.1% decline. The yoy reading was -2.2%, the 12th successive month in which the Euro Area has seen an annual fall in industrial production.

To the day ahead now, and in addition to the political ramifications of the UK election, highlights to watch out for include US retail sales figures for November and business inventories for October, while from Europe, we’ll get Italian industrial sales and orders for October as well. In terms of central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy and Holzmann, along with New York Fed President Williams, and the Russian central bank will be making its latest policy decision.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 50.98 POINTS OR 1.78%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 693.62 POINTS OR 2.57%   /The Nikkei closed UP 598.29 POINTS OR 2.55%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9778 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9778 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9694 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

the farce of the trade deal;  it will never be made public and nothing is in writing!

(zerohedge)

 

The Farce Of The Deal: Terms Of ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Will “Never Be Made Public”; There Will Be No Signing Ceremony

There was much rejoicing and buying of stocks when Trump tweeted, to much fanfare and bombast early this morning, that he is “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!.” Sure enough, just a few hours later, there was a deal. Or was there? Because whereas we now know that the US & China have agreed to a Phase One deal on Paper, and Trump signed off on it… nobody will ever know what’s in the actual deal, even once we pass it!

Here’s what we do know: according to Fox Business correspondent Edwards Lawrence, China “verbally agreed to buy $50b in agriculture, but that will not be in writing.” In fact it appears that nothing will be.

Also, the deal supposedly includes intellectual property protections, something the US has been asking for as a core demand.

Edward Lawrence

@EdwardLawrence

A trade source tells me this is a historic day. US & China agree to a Phase One deal on Paper. The source says Chinese verbally agree to buy $50b in agriculture, but that will not be in writing. The source says the deal includes intellectual property protections.

Needless to say, a Chinese IP concession will most certainly not be in writing too.

Other parts of the deal include “increased access to the financial services market. There is language where the Chinese agree not to manipulate their currency. There is enforcement written into the agreement. Dec 15th tariffs do not go forward.”

Edward Lawrence

@EdwardLawrence

The Phase One deal includes increase access to the financial services market. There is language where the Chinese agree not to manipulate their currency. There is enforcement written into the agreement. Dec 15th tariffs do not go forward.

Perhaps most important for traders is that this is the end of the overnight “trade deal optimism” rally: phase two of the trade deal will “begin after 2020 elections.” Which means a whole year without Trump tweets that a deal is very close and that China is dying to do it.

Edward Lawrence

@EdwardLawrence

The source says Dec 15th tariffs do not go forward. There will be a small reduction in tariffs on some Chinese goods as a gesture of good will. Phase Two of the negotiations will begin after 2020 elections.

Yet for all of the above, here’s the most mindboggling part. Lawrence said that the Chinese have requested that the language of the trade deal will never be made public.

That’s right – there is (supposedly) a “deal”, written on paper somewhere, specifying certain terms, and signed by certain US and Chinese presidents. And nobody will ever see what that deal actually states.

Edward Lawrence

@EdwardLawrence

The source says a signing ceremony will not happen with President Xi. There will be a rollout of the agreement by the White House Friday. The Chinese have requested that the language of the never be made public.

Effectively, the Phase One trade deal “could” be nothing more than a market manipulating blank piece of paper, and since China has only pledged to do something – which nobody will know as it is not written – and since China has not committed contractually in the court of public opinion, it will have absolutely no incentive to abide by the Phase One “deal>”

And just to confirm that it is all a farce, the source said there would be no signing event between President Trump and President Xi, confirming that a a probably never actually happened.

 

Of course, none of this matters to the algos,as markets soared then soared more on Thursday, pricing in for the 563rd time a trade deal that may very well not exist. Here’s the moment when the Dow jumped 400 points on President Trump’s trade tweet.

As a reminder, today’s “we have a deal” news was just recycled headlines from Oct. 11, when President Trump first announced a phase one trade deal on Twitter.

And while we now have a secret, unsigned “deal”, the president spent the last several months jawboning stocks higher on imminent trade deal headlines. During this period, the S&P500 rose by nearly 8%.

Of course, in a world where the Fed’s NOT QE is about to inject $500 billion in liquidity in the next 4 weeks, and NOT bail out the biggest US and European banks, it is only fitting that the US-China unsigned, forever secret NOT trade deal is just the catalyst that pushes the NOT market to a new all time high.

END

China/USA

Late last night China refuses to confirm trade deal as the local media remains silent

(zerohedge)

China Refuses To Confirm Trade Deal As Local Media Stays Dead Silent

Markets are closed in Beijing, the workday is over, and there are zero official reports in the local media or comments by state officials that a trade deal ever took place. That may be because, as we explained on Thursday night, the language of the “deal” will never be made public and there would be no signing event between President Trump and President Xi.

One may even ask if there is even a “deal”?

As the WSJ writes this morning, China indicated that a near-term trade agreement with the U.S. has yet to be completed despite President Trump’s signoff, highlighting the unpredictability of a negotiation process that has rattled global markets and businesses.

Trump on Thursday approved a so-called phase-one trade pact that will scale back existing tariffs on Chinese imports and eliminate new levies scheduled to take effect on Sunday, in exchange for a written pledge from Beijing to buy tens of billions of dollars worth of U.S. farm products, among other concessions.

While Mr. Trump was “upbeat and enthusiastic about this breakthrough,” in the words of Michael Pillsbury, an adviser to the president during the trade talks, the mood in Beijing has been decidedly more sober.

 

As noted above, none of China’s state-owned media outlets or economic agencies involved in the trade negotiations made any public statement on Friday about the deal which according to Trump was finalized. The circumstances are chillingly similar to what happened in May when a deal was “this close” only to collapse in the final moment. The WSJ reminds us what happened then:

Ensuring what senior leaders have described as a “balanced” agreement has been a priority for Chinese negotiators throughout the process. Beijing walked away from a nearly completed deal in early May because the leadership felt that the text of the agreement was too lopsided in Washington’s favor. That led the Trump administration to ramp up its trade war with China, putting a drag on the world economy.

Is it deja vu all over again? A Chinese official told Reuters on Friday that the trade deal is more of a “final offer” that has been approved by the Trump  administration but not yet affirmed by Beijing. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying wouldn’t even comment when asked by reporters about whether an agreement has been reached.

“China is committed to constructive dialogue to resolve and manage our differences, and believe … the deal must be mutually beneficial,” she said.

Instead, Hua Chunying only referred only to how news of the agreement helped fuel a surge in U.S. and European stocks (it also lifted Chinese shares). More to the point, Hua didn’t confirm the existence of a deal.

Confirming that the Chinese media may have been directed not to comment on the alleged deal, Global Times editor, Hu Xijin, tweeted: “Chinese authorities and official media so far haven’t given any information on China and the US are close to a deal. As the US side released optimistic information through various channels, the Chinse side has basically kept silent.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Chinese authorities and official media so far haven’t given any information on China and the US are close to a deal. As the US side released optimistic information through various channels, the Chinse side has basically kept silent. This is a delicate situation.

Senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi spoke Friday at an annual symposium in Beijing on international affairs and said the US has severely damaged the hard-won mutual trust between both countries: “Such behavior is almost paranoid, and is indeed rare in international exchanges, seriously damaging the hard-won foundation of mutual trust between China and the United States, and seriously weakening the United States’ international credibility.”

Needless to say, very strange commentary for a side that just reached a historic trade accord.

Though Beijing sees the benefit in wrapping up a deal as quickly as possible this time around, it still wants to ensure that China doesn’t appear to have been pressured into making all the concessions, according to the WSJ. The reason: the perception of a one-sided agreement could subject Xi to criticism from within the ruling Communist Party and other parts of the society, Chinese officials fear.

“The U.S. side talks too much, and that’s the American style,” said Mei Xinyu, a trade analyst at a think tank affiliated with China’s Commerce Ministry. “If there is an agreement, both sides will have to make an official announcement. Without that, anything is possible.”

Fox Business correspondent Edwards Lawrence noted Thursday night that the Chinese have requested that the language of the trade deal will never be made public. In other words, there is (supposedly) a “deal,” written on paper somewhere, specifying certain terms, and signed by certain US and Chinese presidents. And nobody will ever see what that deal actually states.

Mike Jasinski@jasinskm

The first rule of trade deal is never mention trade deal.

Lawrence also said China “verbally agreed to buy $50b in agriculture, but that will not be in writing.”

And for a reality check, Reuters commodity analyst Karen Braun had serious doubts that China would be buying $50 billion worth of US agriculture products because the numbers just don’t add up. 

Here’s more from Braun: “And if you consider Ag & Related Products (includes fish & forestry products) – max was $29 billion in 2013. So this is the absolute max previous ceiling considering all exports that could be considered ag. I’m not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.”

Karen Braun

@kannbwx

This again. agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.

The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion.

View image on Twitter

Karen Braun

@kannbwx

And if you consider Ag & Related Products (includes fish & forestry products) – max was $29 billion in 2013. So this is the absolute max previous ceiling considering all exports that could be considered ag.

I’m not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.

Other commodity analysts agreed with Braun, indicating that, “There’s just no logistical way that they can double imports in a year,” or probably ever, said INTL FCStone Asia commodity analyst Darin Friedrichs.

CNBC’s Eunice Yoon added the $50 billion in agriculture purchases was a “hard target” for the Chinese. Yoon said if there were a deal, then it would surely draw complaints by Europe and South American countries at the WTO.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

Nearing end of work day in , and this is still true. Official media reporting on deal? Nada. https://twitter.com/huxijin_gt/status/1205324849540812801 

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Chinese authorities and official media so far haven’t given any information on China and the US are close to a deal. As the US side released optimistic information through various channels, the Chinse side has basically kept silent. This is a delicate situation.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

Hearing from sources here- one government- leaders not yet accepted deal. Issues? 1) $50bln purchases hard target. Other partners (Europe, LatAm) complain about what is seen as “reallocation of purchases”, could challenge Beijing at @wto.. https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-u-s-is-very-close-to-a-big-deal-with-china-on-trade-11576162614 

Trump Says U.S. Is ‘Very Close to a Big Deal' With China on Trade

Trump Says U.S. Is ‘Very Close to a Big Deal’ With China on Trade

President Trump Trump said the U.S. is ‘Very Close to a Big Deal’ with China on trade. He said on Twitter: “They Want It, And So Do We”

wsj.com

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

1a) to reach large hard target, would have to order state firms to buy since government itself doesn’t purchase. Concern that would not reflect well on Beijing which has been pushing market-oriented policies…

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

1a) to reach large hard target, would have to order state firms to buy since government itself doesn’t purchase. Concern that would not reflect well on Beijing which has been pushing market-oriented policies…

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

3) Domestic public perception. Phase one deal could be seen as “symbol” bilateral ties back on track. Concern is US, esp. Congress, would continue to attack on , into 2020 so awkward. With nationalism rising, Chinese might question Beijing decision.

Putting this all together, President Trump’s self-proclaimed phase one trade deal is likely a proposal at the moment for the Chinese. And even if the Chinese agree to it, it may never become public.

How to make sense of all of this? Recall that earlier this week, Peter Navarro was complaining that China had taken control over the narrative. So by laying out the terms of the “concluded” deal, it is possible the Trump administration is seeking to force the Chinese into an agreement so Trump can get a political win, because that’s really what a phase one deal is about.

Should the Chinese reject the terms of the proposal, such as the massive $50 billion in agriculture purchases, Trump can now effectively scapegoat China for blowing up the trade deal, just as he did back in May, which brings us back to the Trade war cycle…

END
And now the truth behind the so called trade deal..i.e. phase one of the deal.  China promises to buy agricultural products but they did not specify quantity. Trump did not roll back the 25% tariff but did cut the Sept 15 penalty tariff in half from 15% down to 7.5%..phase ii negotiations to begin immediately. .in essence there is no real deal.
(zeorhedge)

Trump: No New Tariffs, Sept Tariffs Cut In Half, All Other Tariffs Remain; Phase II Negotiations “Begin Immediately”

Confirming what we said earlier, namely that the December 15 tariffs will not be imposed, but existing tariffs will not be rolled back (although the September 15% tariffs will be cut in half) even though China says the US has “promised” to do so in phases, moments ago president Trump tweeted his own take of what the trade deal says, which is the following:

“We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China.

They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more.

The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder.

The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal.

We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more. The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…..The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!

For those who have lost track, of all the various moving parts, here is a snapshot of all the tariffs, with the notable item being the September $120BN tariffs whose rate will be cut in half, from 15% to 7.5%.

Meanwhile, for those who missed the earlier recap of the Chinese presser, this is what was said:

  • CHINA: U.S. TO REMOVE TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS IN PHASES
  • CHINA: FIRST PHASE TRADE TALKS HAVE ACHIEVED MAJOR ADVANCEMENT
  • CHINA: THE DEAL WILL HELP BOOST GLOBAL MARKET CONFIDENCE
  • CHINA: WILL COMPLETE ASAP TRANSLATION, LEGAL REVIEW OF DEAL
  • CHINA: TO INCREASE IMPORTS FROM U.S. AND OTHERS
  • CHINA: SIDES AGREE TO COMPLETE LAST STAGES AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
  • CHINA: WILL WORK TO SET A DATE FOR SIGNING DEAL
  • CHINA: HAS DECIDED TO CANCEL TARIFFS SCHEDULED TO TAKE EFFECT ON SUNDAY
  • CHINA: U.S. HAS PROMISED TO CANCEL ADDITIONAL TARIFFS ON CHINESE PRODUCTS

Some details on agri products:

  • CHINA PLANS TO IMPORT U.S. WHEAT, RICE, CORN WITHIN QUOTAS

Yet the confusion grows because contrary to the US spin on the deal, China refuses any mention of boosting agri imports:

  • CHINA DIDN’T ANSWER QUESTION ON SIZE OF AG BUYS FROM U.S.
  • SOY, HOGS PARE GAINS; CHINA SAYS NO DETAILS YET ON AG IMPORTS

This confirms that China opposes any contractual agreement to boost US imports as that would put Chinese farmers at a disadvantage, and forcing Beijing to provide stimulus.

In conclusion:

  • CHINA: ARE TALKING ABOUT TIMING, PLACE, DETAILS OF SIGNING DEAL

It is unclear if both sides will sign their own version of what the deal says.

This is how we summarized the Chinese presser:

the December 15 tariffs will not be imposed, but existing tariffs will not be rolled back even though China says the US has “promised” to do so in phases. In other words, once again there is no actual Phase 1 deal, there is just an agreement to avoid a new round of tariffs with both sides making vague promises.

So to summarize again” there is no actual, enforceable deal. There is only a “deal” for public consumption, one that indicates both sides have promised to make unenforceable concessions, with no new tariffs imposed and Trump cutting the Sept 2019 tariffs in half from 15% to 7.5%.

Meanwhile, Trump has already hinted how he will levitate the market for the next year – by danging hope that Phase 2 is going great and will be completed any minute, even though China denied, saying that:

  • NEGOTIATIONS FOR PHASE TWO DEAL TO DEPEND ON IMPLEMENTATION OF PHASE ONE DEAL – CHINA VICE FINANCE MINISTER

So yes, anything to get stocks higher.

end

The USTR explains this “non” deal

(zerohedge)

Confused What’s In The “Phase One” Deal? The USTR Explains

For those confused about what the US and China actually agreed on after months of negotiations and all that confusion in the past few hours, here is the bottom line,from the USTR: “The United States will be maintaining 25 percent tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5 percent tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.”

Furthermore, while not expressly stated in the USTR recap of the “deal”, Trump tweeted earlier that no new tariffs will be imposed on Dec 15, while negotiations over the next, Phase Two, deal begin immediately. As a reminder, since this “deal” includes enforcement over actually complicated issues such as intellectual property theft, it will never be concluded.

So what does the US get in exchange? It remains unclear – China has promised to buy  “more” agri products, but without providing actual details, while saying it plans to import US wheat, rice, and corn within quotas. The USTR also said that The Phase One agreement “includes a commitment by China that it will make substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.” However according to some that merely means that it will merely seek to raise its US agri imports back to $20bn, where they were in 2017 and before.

In any case, China did not give any indication of just what it had promised to purchase volume or dollar wise, suggesting there was no explicit agreement on this issue.

Separately, the USTR notes that the Phase One deal “requires structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange”, however since there is no actual enforcement mechanism besides merely pushing tariffs back to where they were, none of this will be implemented.

In short: Trump folded without getting any tangible concessions from China merely to avoid new tariffs, and potentially a market crash. Meanwhile, there are virtually no details what China has agreed to do, and despite the USTR’s insistence to the contrary, there appears to be no actual enforcement mechanism to make sure China does not reneg on the agreement.

Full USTR statement below:

The United States and China have reached an historic and enforceable agreement on a Phase One trade deal that requires structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange.  The Phase One agreement also includes a commitment by China that it will make substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.  Importantly, the agreement establishes a strong dispute resolution system that ensures prompt and effective implementation and enforcement.  The United States has agreed to modify its Section 301 tariff actions in a significant way.

“President Trump has focused on concluding a Phase One agreement that achieves meaningful, fully-enforceable structural changes and begins rebalancing the U.S.-China trade relationship.  This unprecedented agreement accomplishes those very significant goals and would not have been possible without the President’s strong leadership,” said United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

“Today’s announcement of a Phase One agreement with China is another significant step forward in advancing President Trump’s economic agenda.  Thanks to the President’s leadership, this landmark agreement marks critical progress toward a more balanced trade relationship and a more level playing field for American workers and companies,” said Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin.

The United States first imposed tariffs on imports from China based on the findings of the Section 301 investigation on China’s acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation.  The United States will be maintaining 25 percent tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5 percent tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.

end

The Chinese pledge 40 billion dollars worth of agricultural products this coming year to be followed by 50 billion dollars

The market is discounting this to a high degree..the pundits are saying this will not happen

 

(zerohedge)

Lighthizer Confirms China Pledged $40BN In Ag Buys Next Year, There Is Just One Problem…

US Trade Representative Lighthizer has released some details of the phase one US-China trade deal… there’s just one big elephant in the room that is raising a few eyebrows.

Apparently confirming President Trump’s comments, Lighthizer told reporters that China has agreed to purchase USD 40bln in Agricultural goods in the first year (with best efforts to increase that to USD 50bln), that there will be additional negotiations and the deal is expected to be signed in early January (at a ministerial level – not Xi and Trump). Lighthizer confirmed that China’s expectation is that there will be further phases and further reductions in tariffs, and he confirmed that the agreement will increase US Trade to China by USD 200bln over 2 years. (There will reportedly be a more detailed factsheet released this afternoon).

That all sounds awesome, right?

Well, to reach $40 billion next year, China would have to quadruple its US Agricultural imports!!

In 2018, China bought less than $10 billion in Ags from the US (and to reach $50 billion would mean to double the previous record high Ag exports)…

And as US purchases from US have plunged, they have shifted demand to Latin America…

So Brazil will be very upset if this deal is actually fulfilled, and it will likely mean China breaking contracts with its new suppliers.

 

All of which explains two things:

Why Agricultural commodities are not screaming higher…

And neither are stocks, yuan, or copper, as investors appear to be discounting the rising probability of the Phase One Deal being busted within a few months as the “promised” purchases do not occur… and if that is close to the elections, it could well mean an ugly market reaction.

end
CHINA//USA
Goldman Sachs is very upset with the USA “deal” the tariff reduction is only half of what they expected
(zerohedge)

Goldman Is Displeased: “The Tariff Reduction Is Only Half What We Expected”

While a close read of the “Phase One” deal reveals that, when stripped of all the cheerleading, it is largely hollow with China making an impossible promise to quadruple its ag imports from the US, something it will never do, in exchange for the US not implementing Dec 15 tariffs and cutting in half the rate on the latest round of tariffs, something Trump was hoping to do to avoid a market crash, even those institutions that used its widely anticipated passage as grounds for a rebound in optimism can’t help but be critical of what the USTR announced earlier today.

Case in point: Goldman Sachs, which has for weeks predicted that the upcoming trade war truce would be critical for the company’s bullish bias on the 2020 economy, couldn’t help itself in pointing out that the tariff rollback announced today falls short of our baseline expectation.”

This means that net of the 50% tariff cut in the Sept 2019 tariffs, the overall decline in Chinese tariffs is effectively negligible and represents just a 10% reduction in all Section 301 duties on Chinese goods. Here Goldman had assumed that the agreement would eliminate tariffs on List 4A entirely, which would have represented a roughly 20% reduction in Section 301 tariffs.

 

In other words, for all the excitement, all the US has done is lower its blended tariffs on China by a token 10%, which will have no impact on any production, capex or supply chain substitution plans.

Goldman’s full report is below:

 

BOTTOM LINE: Officials from the US and China have made formal statements indicating that a deal has been reached. There is still some uncertainty regarding details, but the most important development is that the White House has agreed to reduce September 1 tariffs (List 4A) on roughly $120bn in imports from China from 15% to 7.5%. While this signals a clear shift in the direction of US-China trade policy—i.e., tariffs are falling, not rising—the reduction is only half as large as our baseline assumption. We note that there is still some uncertainty regarding the status of this agreement, as it appears once again that some technical and legal details are still in flux.

MAIN POINTS:

  1. Officials from the US and China have made formal statements indicating that they have reached agreement on a “Phase One” trade deal that, according to the US Trade Representative (USTR) addresses “intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange” and “includes a commitment by China that it will make substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.” Neither US nor Chinese officials have been specific about what the reforms are, nor has there been any detail provided regarding the size of Chinese agriculture purchases from the US.
  2. The agreement includes a tariff rollback, as expected, but it falls short of our baseline expectation. Out of the slightly more than $500bn in goods the US imports from China, roughly $370bn are currently subject to tariffs, including roughly $120bn in goods that face 15% tariffs as of Sep. 1, known as “List 4A”. According to USTR, tariffs on List 4A will be reduced from 15% to 7.5%. This would represent a roughly 10% reduction in Section 301 duties on Chinese goods. We had assumed that the agreement would eliminate tariffs on List 4A entirely, which would have represented a roughly 20% reduction in Section 301 tariffs.
  3. While the smaller tariff rollback is slightly negative relative to our expectations, we note that the most important aspect of the agreement—assuming it is finalized—is that US tariffs are now set to decrease, marking a sharp turn from the US stance over the last two years. We estimate that, compared to our baseline assumption that the White House would remove tariffs on List 4A entirely, the impact of trade policy on Q4/Q4 US growth by the end of 2020 should be 0.07pp more negative than what had previously assumed, and that the impact on core PCE inflation should be 0.03pp higher. That said, these are relatively small numbers and the tariff reduction is still a net positive compared to the status quo.
  4. Our Asia Economics team believes that the incremental effect of this deal on the Chinese economy is also relatively small, as it is close to our baseline expectation of no additional tariffs and a roll back of the tariffs on List 4A. As a result, we do not expect the policy stance stated at the Central Economic Working Conference to be changed by this phase 1 deal.
  5. The lack of detail and statements that the agreement still needs to undergo “legal review” suggests that there is still some uncertainty regarding the specifics. That said, the fact that officials from both countries have made announced a deal along the same lines indicates, in our view, that the odds that the two sides fail to finalize the deal are low.

CHINA

PBoC states that China’s downturn would last 5 years. I think it would probably be longer

(zerohedge)

 

China Downturn Could Last Five Years Warns Central Bank

An advisor to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said China’s economy might not recover for the next five years, reported Reuters.

Liu Shijin, a policy adviser to the PBoC, said the country’s GDP will decelerate through 2025 and could print in a range of 5 to 6%.

Shijin warned that excessive mo

netary policy is failing to stimulate the economy and could cause it to rapidly decelerate.

Last month, we noted that China’s credit growth plunged to the weakest pace since 2017 as a continued collapse in shadow banking, weak corporate demand for credit, and seasonal effects all signaled that China’s economy, nevertheless, the global economy, will continue to slow.

 

The latest Q3 GDP figure recorded a further drop in growth, now printing at 6% YoY, the weakest expansion since the early 1990s.

China will continue decelerating into 1H20 — thanks to ineffective monetary policy but could stabilize in a target range of 5.8% to 6% YoY.

A further economic slowdown in Chinese growth could ruin the party for equity bulls, who have already priced in a massive 2016-style rebound in the global economy. A slowing China means the world will fail to rebound, though we don’t discount the stabilization narrative.

With China’s economy unlikely to sharply rebound early next year, global investors will shortly have to reprice growth, which could result in a move down in global equities.

To gain more color on China’s extended slowdown, we turn to Fathom Consulting’s China Momentum Indicator (CMI), which provides a more in-depth view of China’s economic activity than the official Chinese GDP statistics.

CMI is based on ten alternative indicators for economic activity; some of those indicators include railway freight, electricity consumption, and the issuance of bank loans.

Fathom has stated that in CMI, the calculation of the index avoids measuring construction activity, and instead focuses on shadow measures of economic activity. The consulting group says this allows the index to be “less prone to manipulation than the headline GDP figures.”

“In 2014, when China’s traditional growth model was running out of steam and vulnerabilities were rising, authorities toyed with credit tightening and an enforced rebalancing. But at the end of 2015, when growth slowed too sharply, they quickly threw in the towel, resorting to the old growth model of credit-fuelled growth. With growth once again slowing, and past precedent suggesting credit has neared its limit, China finds itself at a crossroad,” Fathom recently said.

China’s failure to stimulate its economy suggests CMI will continue a downward trajectory that has been underway for the last decade.

We’ve recently outlined the bust of the global auto industry has weighed down the Chinese economy. With no signs of an upswing in the auto market, China’s economy will remain depressed in the years ahead.

As China’s economy slows, global commodity prices are stuck in a deflationary spiral.

China’s slowing economy warns that global equities have mispriced growth for early 1Q20.

Chinese stocks could see downside in the year ahead as the economy slows.

Looking for signs of life in the Chinese economy — there aren’t any at the moment.

Société Générale’s latest report shows employment in China contracting across manufacturing and non-manufacturing, outlining how the slowdown is broad-based.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that China’s economy is decelerating and could be locked in a downward spiral until 2025. This means without China being the beating heart of the global economy, which created 60% of all new global debt over the past decade – there can be no global recovery. Maybe the world has just transitioned into a period of low or below trend growth that could be the onset of a worldwide trade recession.

end

China/Canada/USA

China detains a Canadian nationalist who headed a New York over the counter company called Fincera. They also arrested other individuals of the firm from their Beijing offices, accusing them of accepting illegal public funds. These guys are a Peer to Peer lending operation

(zerohedge)

China Detains CEO Of US-Listed P2P Firm Fincera 

In a crackdown against peer-to-peer lending, Chinese law enforcement officers raided the Beijing offices of a New York-listed lending company and have detained the chairman for suspected financial crimes, reported the Financial Times.

Li Yonghui, the chairman of Fincera, was detained in the northern Chinese city of Shijiazhuang on Friday morning, has been accused of illegal acceptance of public funds.

CNA

@ChannelNewsAsia

China detains CEO of US-listed P2P firm Fincera for suspected financial crime https://cna.asia/2PhMatJ

View image on Twitter

FT said nearly two dozen officers raided Fincera’s Beijing offices on Friday.

The company’s chief technology officer and vice-president were also detained at their homes in Beijing in the early morning.

Yonghui is a Canadian national, and his whereabouts are still unknown, but according to his son, he was detained by authorities.

Fincera’s stock trades over the counter in New York and has seen a 65% drop in market value this year.

China’s peer-to-peer lending is contracting after years of rapid growth. The government started cracking down on the industry in 2018.

Fincera is one of the largest lending platforms in Hebei province by loans.

The Embassy of Canada to China has yet to confirm the arrest.

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Boris Johnson has a majority government and will implement Brexit by Jan 31/2020

(zerohedge)

Conservatives Celebrate Historic ‘Working-Class’ Mandate As Corbyn Quits

Before we get into the results, let’s take a second to listen to a song that just might become the new Conservative Party anthem (for the next five years, or until the next general election):

Boris Johnson has done it. He has overcome all the jeers in the press about his appearance and reputation for Machiavellian maneuvering. All those clips flooding social media showing voters telling off the prime minister for plotting to destroy Europe has been exposed for just that: More Remainer propaganda – not a glimpse into the true will of the people.

Johnson’s strategic decision to make the election all about Brexit – we’re returning to the polls to ‘Get Brexit Done’, he said – though controversial among his party members, will forever be remembered as the absolute correct decision. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was perhaps savvy enough to side-step the trap of fully supporting remain, but the Lib Dems paid a heavy price for running a campaign centered upon revoking Brexit.

 

It turns out, all those stories about a second referendum reversing the British people’s initial decision were just that: stories – made-up tales circulated in the press by bitter political partisans.

As Johnson proved last night, support for Brexit under the terms he negotiated with the EU, remains high across the UK, particularly in the Labour heartland, where Johnson smashed through the opposition’s ‘Wall of Red’ and won a massive majority. With one seat left to be decided, the Tories had a majority of 79 votes (when one factors in the speaker, deputy speaker and members of Northern Ireland’s Sinn Fein, who don’t take their seats in Westminster), with the Conservatives taking 364 seats, Labour 203 seats, SNP 48 seats and the Lib Dems 11 seats.

As last night’s exit polls suggested, Johnson has taken home the biggest conservative majority since Thatcher (as Johnson noted in his victory speech, that was before many of the party’s current voters were born).

As a strategist from Rabobank put it in a note to clients: “The great Brexit gamble paid off. Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons. The final result is still due, but it is certain that his majority is comfortable enough to get his Brexit-deal through the Commons. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.”

Across the aisle, Johnson’s political opponents suffered crushing defeats. The big loser of the night was Lib Dem Leader Jo Swinson, who couldn’t even hold on to her own seat, and was voted out by her Scottish constituency in favor of the SNP (another big winner from last night). Swinson’s decision to back Johnson in supporting the Christmastime vote, coupled with her decision to campaign heavily on a pro-remain, pro-second referendum message, will be remembered as some of the biggest political blunders of the new millennium. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party also fared poorly. Hopes that Corbyn’s ultra-left-wing platform would resonate with under-counted young voters and deliver a surprise pro-Labour upset have been decidedly dashed. Instead, the party turned in its worst performance in decades, barely managing to stay above the 200-seat threshold.

As the FT showed, the Tories won a true mandate from all of Britain, including the working class voters coveted by Labour.

As expected, Corbyn has promised to step down as Labour leader, though the BBC reported that with the party in extreme disarray (Laura Pidcock, a young up-and-coming Labour MP who was seen as a potential Corbyn ally and possible successor, didn’t even win back her seat) Corbyn will likely hang on until the Spring, when a party leadership contest can be held.

And rightfully so. Because, as the results showed, Corbyn’s critics turned out to be correct: He’s simply too radical for the British people, and his reputation as an anti-semite also undoubtedly hurt.

While some have argued that last night’s election was a one-issue vote (are you pro-Brexit or pro-Remain?), exit polls show a distaste for Corbyn was also clearly a factor.

Steven Fielding@PolProfSteve

It was not just about Brexit.

View image on Twitter

In his victory speech, an energetic Johnson noted that “we broke the deadlock, we’ve ended the gridlock, we’ve smashed the roadblock – we did it!”. He went on to thank voters, especially the longtime Labour voters who cast their ballots for the Conservatives for the first time in their life.

“Now we say, to our stentorian friend in the blue, twelve-star hat: it’s time to put a sock in the megaphone.”

Meanwhile, the tone as Corbyn announced his plans to step aside was, unsurprisingly, rather morose:

And thus ends the political career of one of the Western World’s most distinguished leftists…announcing his resignation while being subtly undermined by some guy in a french-horn hat.

Satoshi Sugiyama@SatoshiJournal

Ok, can we talk about the dude with a yellow hat standing behind Corbyn?

View image on Twitter

Though, throughout the night, Johnson also fell victim to some humorous photobombers.

(If you’re looking for an explanation, MarketWatch has got you covered)

The other big winner of the night was Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party. With her at the helm, the party won 48 out of 59 seats in Scotland, setting the stage for a constitutional battle with Johnson, who has so far refused to willingly allow another independence referendum.

Johnson has promised to pass his Brexit deal before Christmas, setting the stage for Britain leaving the EU on Jan. 31. Only then, will the real slog of hashing out a new trade deal with the EU27 before the end of next year (which is the next big Brexit deadline). Johnson has promised that he would not extend the deadline beyond the end of next year, but if the past three years have taught us anything, it’s that the first deadline is typically a “soft” deadline.

END
Italy
My goodness: Italian government now show numbers that indicate that 42% of all rapes are carried out by migrant
(Watson/Summit News)

Italian Government Numbers Show 42% Of Rapes Are Carried Out By Migrants

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

New figures released by Italy’s Interior Ministry have revealed that 42 per cent of rapes in the country are carried out by migrants.

The numbers show that Italian women are more likely to be victims of sexual harassment or so-called “minor sexual assaults” than foreign women are, but that migrant women are slightly more likely to experience major sex crimes like violent rape.

“The rapes were committed in 62.7% of cases by partners, in 3.6% by relatives and in 9.4% by friends,” reports Il Giornale.

The numbers are similar in many other European countries that have accepted large numbers of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East.

Figures released last year found that 58 per cent of convicted rapists and 85 per cent of all convicted assault rapists in Sweden were born outside of Europe.

In cases where the victim did not know the attacker, the proportion of foreign offenders was more than 80 per cent. Nearly 40 per cent of the convicted rapists are from the Middle East or from Africa.

A study by the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet found that 88 per cent of gang rapists in the Scandinavian country over the last six years have had a migrant background.

 

Still, apparently diversity remains a strength.

*  *  *

My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

END
GERMANY
Germany furious with the USA for initiating potential sanctions on Germany for engaging in the Nord Stream 2 project
(zerohedge)

Germany Slams Trump’s ‘Meddling’ In Europe’s Energy After Nord Stream 2 Sanctions Passed

 

Included in Wednesday’s just passed mammoth 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)  which increases the Pentagon budget by $22 billion (to a whopping $738 billion) — were long-threatened sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 underwater natural gas pipeline.

In the House bill, expected to be approved by the Senate sometime next week before Trump signs it into law, are measures which specifically target companies assembling the pipeline, a last ditch US effort to block the controversial 760-mile project that would allow Russia to export natural gas directly to Germany, depriving Ukraine of badly needed gas transit fees along the current route for Russian supplies.

 

Via Russia Business TodayThe $10.5 billion Nord Stream 2, which runs parallel to the existing Nord Stream pipeline, has been spearheaded by Gazprom and five European energy companies, and is reportedly nearing completion. It’s expected to double Russian gas shipments to the EU’s biggest economy Germany. Washington fears it will give Moscow significant geopolitical leverage over Europe while also punishing Ukraine.

 

Over the past months projected completion has been consistently named as “by year’s end”, hence the Congressional scramble to ‘act now’ on sanctions, but reports say it’s still months away from completion.

Regardless, Gazprom head Alexei Miller has for months said it’s “past the point of no return” and that nothing would derail it. “We are working from the idea that Nord Stream 2 will be realized strictly in accordance with the planned timetable,” he previously told shareholders.

Trump has long charged Germany with essentially giving “billions” of dollars to Russia. Earlier this year a France-led effort in the European Union attempted to halt the project, however, Germany came out on top.

And now Berlin is hitting back over the new sanctions effort, charging Washington with “interference” and meddling in European energy policy.

Angela Merkel’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, told Bloomberg:

“European energy policy must be decided in Europe, not the U.S.” And added, “We fundamentally reject outside intervention and sanctions with extraterritorial effect.”

Completion is still months away, though it was expected to be operational by end of 2019. No doubt US sanctions could complicate its completion further. 

Germany has expected such punitive actions, which have bipartisan support in Congress. The measures additionally target executives of companies operating vessels laying the pipeline.

French electricity and gas firm Engie SA and Royal Dutch shell are among other major companies alongside Gazprom which are major players in the controversial project.

END

Germany

Revolt in her own coalition as Merkel is backing Huawei while other lawmakers are seeing a full ban of products produced by this Chinese behemoth company

(zerohedge)

Merkel’s Own Coalition Revolts: Lawmakers Seek Full Ban On Huawei Products

At a moment her coalition appears on the verge of collapsing, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is ready to go bat for Huawei even at the expense her own political legacy at the end of her fourth and final term as chancellor, no doubt partly in an effort to show up Trump.

This from Bloomberg a day after the controversial Chinese telecoms giant secured a commitment to build part of Germany’s 5G infrastructure through a deal with Telefónica SA, among the top three major mobile operators in Germany:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a potential revolt in parliament by lawmakers seeking to override her China policy and effectively ban equipment supplier Huawei Technologies Co. from the country’s fifth-generation wireless network.

 

File image Merkel’s prior visit to Japan, via Reuters.

A new bill drafted by rebels within her ruling coalition who have for months been attempting to derail her open embrace of a company which under Chinese law is obliged to collaborate with the country’s intelligence authorities, would give German authorities power to exclude “untrustworthy” 5G equipment vendors from “core as well as peripheral networks.” If made law it would mark the most far-reaching ban on Huawei products in the country.

Opponents to Merkel’s ‘softness’ on China, amid her attempts to balance sensitive but vital relations with both Beijing and Washington, fear Germany’s widespread embrace of Huawei would create a ripple effect across Europe that would only encourage other countries to follow suit.

Reports Bloomberg, “The draft legislation obtained by Bloomberg News says that security guidelines set out by Merkel’s government, which include a certification process and a declaration of trustworthiness, don’t go far enough.” According to the report Huawei isn’t mentioned specifically in the proposed legislation, but the language makes it clear who is being targeted, coming also at the height of tensions over China relations, including backlash from Beijing over the German FM’s recent hosting of Hong Kong pro-independence activists.

 

China hawks in her party charge that her reckless policy opens Germany and Europe more broadly to serious sabotage and spying risks. Two months ago Merkel brushed off an EU public report which warned as much as the 5G debate raged.

Earlier this year Germany was also the first nation to rebuke Washington’s diplomatic and pressure offensive to persuade allies to ban the Chinese supplier from high-speed telecommunications systems.

The Trump administration has told the German government it would limit the intelligence it shares with German security agencies if Berlin allows Huawei to build Germany’s next-generation mobile-internet infrastructure.

END
GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK
Deutsche bank desperate to conserve on cash
(zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank To Slash Bonuses As Much As 20%

It looks like Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing is really going to have his work cut out for him this bonus season, just as we expected.

According to a Bloomberg report published Friday morning, sources with inside knowledge said DB is going to be cutting its bonus pool by 20%, making Sewing’s task of retaining top talent even more difficult than it would have otherwise been.

The 20% cut far outpaces the 5% reduction in headcount that’s taken place in 2019. But Sewing has promised DB shareholders $6 billion in cost cuts as part of his turnaround strategy, and for that to work, there’s no way the bonus pool can go untouched.

It’s a problem because, as BBG explains, Sewing has pitched DB’s moribund investment bank as the centerpiece of his turnaround strategy. After selling off or shuttering unprofitable businesses, Sewing is hoping to restructure the investment bank, focusing on advisory and corporate banking, while moving away from trading. But all of those businesses rely on rainmakers at the top to bring in the business.

Sewing will need skilled managers and dedicated people in the top positions to make the turnaround work. Unfortunately, revenue at the investment bank, which is led by Mark Fedorcik and Ram Nayak, was down 11% in the first nine months of 2019, while pretax profit plummeted by 47%.

The banks is already suffering from considerable brain drain. In the months before Sewing announced his $8 billion “reinvention” of DB earlier this year, a raft of senior executives left the bank, and even more personnel left after Sewing warned that the bank would seek to cut its headcount substantially in the coming years by getting rid of roughly 18,000 jobs.

Despite the investment banks weak results for 2019, Sewing has said that “momentum” has been improving, though the investment bank’s turnaround is anything but certain. Apparently, DB’s PR team has managed to convince the financial press that, five months in, Sewing’s turnaround plan is starting to show some improvements.

Of course, a shrinking bonus pool is nothing new for DB employees: the bonus pool has been shrinking for years.

One factor acting in Sewing’s favor is the fact that DB likely won’t be alone among its European banking rivals in handing out smaller bonuses this year. But with DB shares still struggling to climb off of all-time lows, and many still in doubt, Sewing is going to need to make those bonus dollars stretch as far as he can. And that means there will undoubtedly be thousands of young bankers at DB who go home disappointed this Christmas (if they’re not working through the holidays, that is).

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

The IEA warns of an oil glut for next year

(Cunningham/OilPrice.com)

IEA Warns An Oil Glut Is Inevitable In 2020

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

Despite the OPEC+ cuts, the oil market is still facing a supply surplus in 2020, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

OPEC+ announced additional cuts of 500,000 bpd, which sounds more impressive than it is because the group was already producing under its limit. In November, for instance, OPEC was producing 440,000 bpd below the agreed upon ceiling.

Saudi Arabia agreed to shoulder an additional 400,000 bpd of voluntary cuts. But the deal also exempts 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of Russia’s condensate production, allowing Russia to actually increase condensate output by 0.8 mb/d.

Still, the deal should take supply off the market.

“If all the countries comply with their new allocations and Saudi Arabia delivers the rest of its voluntary cut of 0.4 mb/d, the fall in production volume versus today will be about 0.5 mb/d,” the IEA said.

OPEC said in its own report that the oil market would be largely in balance in 2020, albeit with a temporary glut in the early part of the year. The IEA sees inventories building at a rate of 0.7 mb/d in the first quarter.

The IEA cut its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth from 2.3 mb/d to 2.1 mb/d, due to weaker growth from Brazil, Ghana and the United States. The U.S. typically gets all of the attention, but disappointing news from Brazil and Ghana also led the IEA to revise forecasts lower.

Notably, Tullow Oil revealed a major disappointment from its Ghana operations, causing a complete meltdown in its share price this week. Its stock fell nearly 70 percent in a single day as investors overhauled their valuation of the company. Tullow admitted that its production from Ghana would decline in the years ahead.

But even the combined effect of slower non-OPEC production growth and the OPEC+ cuts is not enough to erase the glut entirely. “[W]ith our demand outlook unchanged, there could still be a surplus of 0.7 mb/d in the market in 1Q20,” the IEA said.

“Even if they adhere strictly to the cut, there is still likely to be a strong build in inventories during the first half of next year,” the IEA warned.

But the forecasted glut largely depends on ongoing production growth from U.S. shale drillers. The IEA admits that there will be a slowdown, but is still optimistic on production growth, with gains of 1.1 mb/d in 2020, compared to 1.6 mb/d this year.

The agency has consistently been at the optimistic end of the spectrum regarding shale growth, even as major investment banks long ago slashed their forecasts. The IEA cut its U.S. supply forecast by 110,000 bpd from last month’s report, but at 1.1 mb/d, its figure still seems generous. The IEA is betting that the oil majors, who are less responsive to lower prices and problems with cash flow, will continue to scale up drilling.

Meanwhile, a new report from IHS Markit highlights the accelerating rate of decline among the U.S. shale complex, a decline rate that grows in tandem with production increases.

“Oil and gas operators in the Permian Basin, the most prolific hydrocarbon resource basin in North America, will have to drill substantially more wells just to maintain current production levels and even more to grow production, owing to the high level of recent growth,” IHS said in a statement.

The base decline rate in the Permian has “increased dramatically” since 2010.

“Base decline is the volume that oil and gas producers need to add from new wells just to stay where they are—it is the speed of the treadmill,” said Raoul LeBlanc, vice president of Unconventional Oil and Gas at IHS Markit.

“Because of the large increases of recent years, the base decline production rate for the Permian Basin has increased dramatically, and we expect those declines to continue to accelerate. As a result, it is going to be challenging, especially for some companies with cash constraints, just to keep production flat.”

The firm sees U.S. production growth of only 440,000 bpd in 2020, before flattening out in 2021. If this proves accurate, OPEC+ might not need to worry as much.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1177 DOWN .0006 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.62  UP  0.222 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3389   UP   0.0084  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3162 UP .0007 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 51.98 POINTS OR 1.38% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 693.62 POINTS OR 2.57%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,50%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 693.62 POINTS OR 2.57%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 51.98 POINTS OR 1.78%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 50% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 598.29  POINTS OR 2.55%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1472.50

silver:$17.00-

Early  FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.88% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.30 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.83 DOWN 56 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.37% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.02%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//DOWN 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,26 up 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 85 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.87% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1133  DOWN     .0051 or 51 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.25 DOWN .152 OR YEN UP 15  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3352   POUND DOWN 112  BASIS POINTS AFTER BEING UP 212 POINTS FROM EARLY LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar DOWN 41 basis points to 1.3196

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9852    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0124  (YUAN REVERSED DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  58182 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.82 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.24 DOWN 7 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.12 UP 4  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP79.97  1.10%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 61.08 POINTS OR .946%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 34.76 POINTS 0.59%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 98.20 POINTS or 1.01%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 61.62 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.81 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.99 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    62.85  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.10 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 10 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  59.79//

 

 

BRENT :  64.89

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.82..DOWN 7 PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.25  DOWN 6 BASIS PTS..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.118 ( DOWN 66   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.34 DOWN .058 (YEN UP 6 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.20 UP 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3356 DOWN 137  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8125

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.82   DOWN 0.08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3185 DOWN  31 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9852  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0036 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.29%

 

The Dow closed UP 3.33 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 17.56 POINTS OR 0.20%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.69 CLOSED DOWN 1.25

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.893%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Deal On, Risk Off

The great deal ever… is done-ish. And the market’s reaction was…

Stocks gave back some of their gains from yesterday, selling on the news today…

 

But yuan collapsed, erasing all the gains…

Source: Bloomberg

And Treasury yields plunged, erasing all the losses from yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

And despite the headlines of massive Ag purchases, Ag prices sold on the news too…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was total chaos… spiking early above 14 and then getting monkeyhammered back to a 12 handle in the last hour…

Source: Bloomberg

So what did all this “phase one” trade-deal complete malarkey achieve? Stocks are up 8%; bonds, the dollar, and gold are down 2%…

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, Nasdaq outperformed and Small Caps lagged, barely holding gains…

 

S&P was glued back to VWAP for much of the afternoon after selling off on the ‘news’ of the deal…

 

Credit notably decoupled from equity protection today…

 

 

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled today, ending the week 1-2bps lower…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar fell for the 2nd week in a row, testing down to 5-month lows before a huge rebound back to unchanged today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable rallied for the 3rd week in a row to its highest since May 2018… spiking overnight but fading back during the day

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos bounced back a little late in the week but only Bitcoin Cash ended barely green…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities are broadly higher on the week, buoyed by the trade deal and a weaker dollar…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Copper, oddly, tumbled on the day as the deal was completed… after breaking out during the early part of the week…

Gold ended the week at pre-payrolls levels…

So did Silver…

Finally, you are here…

And US economic data is at its most disappointing in over 3 months…

Source: Bloomberg

Trade accordingly!

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/EARLY THIS MORNING/USA

Early this morning stocks dive on China’s agricultural buy concerns

(zerohedge)

Stocks Dive On China Ag-Buy “Concern” Rumors

Surprise!

Stone silence from China on the Trump administration’s reported done deal should have been the canary in the coalmine but now CNBC reports that China still has concerns regarding hard Agricultural product purchase plans.

Yuan is also sliding…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Sadly, it is clear that it takes a Bloomberg headline of a CNBC report for algos to notice what has been clear to humans for the past 8 hours‬.

 

This all fits with the doom-loop scapegoating we have been indicating is most likely here – as the Trump administration gets back control of the narrative and the ability to blame China on Sunday when nothing happens.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Now Trump blows up, accuses China of breaking the deal (which never happened) and we have a replay of May

END
also later in the morning:
Fake news:  Trump is not going to roll back those tariffs..stocks fall/yuan falls
(zerohedge)

Stocks, Yuan Puke As Trump Calls WSJ Tariff-Rollback Story “Fake News”

President Trump just poured cold water on the brightest aspect of his shiny new (reported) trade deal by dismissing claims that prior tariffs will be rolled-back as reported by WSJ yesterday…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Wall Street Journal story on the China Deal is completely wrong, especially their statement on Tariffs. Fake News. They should find a better leaker!

And the result…

Yuan has puked…

Source: Bloomberg

And stocks are fading fast…

sigh…

end
then…
stocks surge as does the yuan as China confirms a major trade deal is announced.eventually this is proved to be garbage

Stocks, Yuan Surge As China Confirms Trade Deal Is “Major Achievement”

The machines are busy…

Stocks and Yuan are soaring back to the highs of the day after Chinese officials confirmed that the US-China trade deal that has been reached is a “major achievement.”

Officials say the two sides will “agree to complete the last stages of the deal as soon as possible,”

and that China “welcomes high quality goods and services into its market.”

Additionally they say “the deal will help boost global confidence.”

Stocks are back at  the highs…

And yuan is spiking back…

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Hard data retail sales growth is the weakest since February and this number basically confirms that the USA is in big trouble financially

(zerohedge)

Core Retail Sales Growth Weakest Since February

With YoY retail sales growth having slowed dramatically in the last two months (actually contracting MoM in Septmber), analysts were expecting a credit-card-fueled buying bounce in November but it was disappointing.

Confirming BofA’s credit-card data…

November retail sales rose just 0.2% MoM (much lower than the 0.5% rise expected)

Source: Bloomberg

Retail sales increased in 8 of the 13 sectors…

But in the core, ex-autos and gas, year-over-year retail sales growth is its weakest since Feb 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

The control group’s meager 0.1% rise – which feeds into GDP – is not what the doctor ordered…

Source: Bloomberg

…as it seems, despite soaring confidence, the US consumer is not exuberantly over-spending

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This is a must read. Adler is one smart cookie and he tells us the truth behind all of the Fed;s money printing. The dealers and banks are over leveraged with treasury debt and they just puked the debt garbage up

(Lee Adler)

The Fed Has ‘Absorbed’ 90% Of Treasury Issuance Since September

Authored by Lee Adler via WallStreetExaminer.com,

Let’s look at a few of Chairman Powell’s words at yesterday’s press conference. Please read them and tell me whether this sounds to you like a man who doesn’t understand what he’s doing. Or if you think he’s deliberately pulling words out of his ass, stringing them together, and spewing them from his mouth in an effort to gaslight the investing public.

I’ll take the latter. The Fed is in the propaganda business. It knows what it is doing. Double talk, lies, and utter bullshit are its stock-in-trade.

Liquidity moves markets!

Follow the money. Find the profits!

Powell’s spew was in response to a question from the confused but affable Michael Mckee of Bloomberg, who no doubt served up the question on a suggestion from his Fed handlers.

McKee: The BIS concluded in September that the repo spike was not a one off confluence of random events but reflected structural and regulatory issues that could lead to a recurrence. 

This is the utter nonsense that the Fed and Primary Dealers who own Wall Street want you to believe. The fact is that the dealers and banks could no longer continue to help finance the burgeoning Federal debt. They had reached the end of their willingness, and/or their ability, to continue to use repo funding from each other to fund the growing flood of Treasury issuance.

McKee: I’d like to ask you if you agree with the BIS findings and given that we are approaching year-end for the markets will you be taking any extra steps to ensure that funding is available in the repo and FX swaps markets.

There was a report yesterday, Credit Suisse suggesting there’s a good chance that we will see disruptions and one of the reasons they December 11, 2019 put it forward is that the Fed is at this point buying only T-bills and the market wants to sell coupons, do you have any plans to sell coupons?

I believe that McKee meant to ask if the Fed has any plans to buy coupons, not sell them. But his question was almost as nonsensical as Powell’s response, so it’s hard to know what he meant.

But there’s no mistaking what Powell meant. Gaslight garbage. I’ll try to explain why as we go through this.

I put Powell’s stream of BS into paragraphs, in an attempt to make some sense of it. I have bolded statements that I felt were particularly absurd or critical. And I have interjected a few facts between Powell’s horseshit, to help you make sense of it.

Powell: So, I’m going to take a little step back and I will get to your specific questions on the year-end and on T-bills.

So I guess I want to start by stressing that these are very important operational matters, but that are not likely to have any macroeconomic implications. 

The Fed is pumping $145 billion  per month into the system. That’s more than under QE One. Powell has said that it’s Not QE, and now says that it won’t have macroeconomic effects. Oh please. Humor me.

Powell: We’ve decided back in January to remain in an ample reserves regime…

The obvious question here is, “Why?” And the answer is that if they hadn’t reversed course from shrinking their balance sheet, the stock and bond markets would have crashed, and short term rates would have soared.

And something very bad would have happened to the US economy. In other words, there would have been macroeconomic second order effects. True, the first order effects would have been in the money markets and the asset markets. But to say that the policy change has no macroeconomic effects is hogwash.

In fact, the money market freeze-up happened first, and the Fed started “Not QE” in September in instant response.

Powell: …and that means we’ll be setting the federal funds rate, the range for the federal funds rate, through our administered rates and not to active management of the level of reserves. 

Gibberish.

Powell: We’re committed to robustly implementing that framework as you can see by our actions.

I’ll say. $435 billion in Not QE so far, since September 17.

Powell: And the purpose of all this, let’s remember, is to assure that our monetary policy decisions will be transmitted to the federal funds rate, which in turn affects other short-term rates. We have the tools to accomplish that and we will use them.

The purpose of all of this is not to eliminate all volatility particularly in the repo market. (Powell)

No, the purpose is to absorb enough of US government debt issuance to keep rates down. As of right now, so far that has meant 90% of all new issuance. The Fed is effectively monetizing the US government debt!

Powell: So taking you back this as you know we had, very gradually allowed the balance sheet to shrink, we slowed that gradual paced by half in March, and then we ended it in July.

Prior to the Trump Regime and Congress lifting the debt ceiling, there was no pressure on the money markets because debt issuance was reduced while the debt ceiling was in place.

But the Fed saw the devil’s budget deal coming and knew that the Treasury would soon be crushing the market with new debt that the market would not be able to absorb. The Fed knew at that point that it would no longer be able to continue removing reserves from the system under its balance sheet bloodletting program, so it stopped.

Powell: Meanwhile we had surveyed all of the banks, and particularly the large banks who hold a lot of the reserves and said what’s your lowest comfortable level of reserves? We got those numbers, we added them up, we added a buffer and it came out sort of at a level that was well below when we were in September.

And yet we saw actually in September that reserves– the markets acted as though reserves had become scarce. So what had happened was that liquidity which actually existed didn’t flow into the repo market and that had effects on the federal funds rate.

So the question is, why did that happen? And we’ve been very carefully looking at the reasons why that might have happened there are payments issues, there have been a number of supervisory and regulatory issues raised, we’re looking carefully at those.

They know damn well why it happened. The only way the market could finance all that Treasury issuance was through repo borrowing. That, folks, is margin debt plain and simple. The dealers and the banks were buying up Treasury issuance on 90% margin. In September, they said, No mas! They’d had enough.

I have shown you this chart before. The banks had been expanding their repo borrowing at an annual rate of an astounding 40% to 60% throughout 2019, and that was on top of a 20% growth rate in 2018. Their repo borrowings rose from the $350-400 billion range in 207 to $850 billion at the peak in September.

And the Fed and Wall Street are blaming regulatory bottlenecks? Give me an effing break. 

The fact is that the overleveraged dealers with their bloated inventories know that any downtick in bond prices will destroy them and destroy the system. And the Fed knows it equally well. Because, as Powell noted, they talk to each other all day, every day in the context of their debt market rigging operations.

So, what follows is utter horseshit.

Powell: We’re open to ideas for modifying supervisory and regulatory practice in ways that don’t undermine safety and soundness and the number of ideas, are under examination there.

To go through with sort of like in time, we started off really on September 17th with overnight operations, by October 11th we had created and put into effect to plan, that plan is in effect.

It’s working. I think for the last couple of months, repo markets have been functioning well, short-term rates are stable, markets are functioning.

Of course it’s working. They’ve pumped $437 billion into the banking system in less than 3 months. They have absorbed 90%, NINETY PERCENT! of all Treasury issuance over that time.

And you wonder why there are asset bubbles.

Think about how screwed the system must be, and would be, if the Fed were not monetizing the debt at this point.

But hey! There’s nothing to see here. Move along.

Powell: So you asked about year-end, temporary upward pressure is on short-term, money market rates are not unusual around year-end. And our– both our repo operations and Treasury bill purchases are intended to mitigate the risks that such pressures pose to our control of the federal funds rate.

We think that the pressures appear manageable and we stand ready to adjust the details of our operations as necessary to keep the federal funds rate in the target range.

Our strategy has been– essentially the key to our strategy is to supply reserves in the near term through both overnight and term repo.

And at the same time we’re raising the underlying level of reserves through bill purchases. I’ll take that now.

We’ve said bills– bill purchases, so we’ve also said that we were willing to adopt our strategy. We’re not at this place but if it does become appropriate for us to purchase other short-term coupon securities, then we would be prepared to do that if the need arises.

So there you have it. It may not be enough for the Fed to absorb 90% of Treasury issuance. Maybe it will take all of it. Or maybe they’ll even print a little extra cash to keep inflating stock prices.

Powell says that they stand ready to increase Not QE even beyond the $145 billion per month pace that they have established so far.

I mean, who knows how far they’ll take this insanity? And who knows what the unintended consequences will be? That, I doubt even the Fed knows.

But watch the 10 year yield, my friends. It’s not cooperating. Holders of bonds, likely including dealers, are liquidating them. If that doesn’t stop, it’s going to make big trouble. The dealers are so leveraged that they will quickly become insolvent, if they haven’t already, and the Fed will then become the permanent market maker for everything, much like the Bank of Japan.

Powell: So, but we don’t– we’re not in that place it looks– it very much looks like the bill. So those bill purchases are going well just according to expectations.

I mean, the other thing I’ll say is that we’re in, you know, very regular contact with market participants all the time.

We’ll be providing, we’ll be continuing that and we’re prepared to adjust our tactics. We’re focused on year-end as well and prepared to adjust our operations as appropriate.

Does that sound like a confident man to you?

Such is the Fed’s confidence game. It has no choice but to play it. The system is in just that bad a place.

God forbid any seriously big investors start to figure it out and decide to take their marbles out of the game and go home.

*  *  *

Follow this story in depth at Liquidity Trader. Know what’s coming next and what to do about it. 90 Days Risk Free If You Join Now! Get current reports and access to past reports.  Read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

end

Globalists defined and what they want

(Brandon Smith)

Who Are The Globalists And What Do They Want?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

I get the question often, though one would think it’s obvious – Who are these “globalists” we refer to so much in the liberty movement? Sometimes the request comes from honest people who only want to learn more. Sometimes it comes from disinformation agents attempting to mire discussion on the issue with assertions that the globalists “don’t exist”. The answer to the question can be simple and complex at the same time. In order to understand who the globalists are, we first have to understand what they want.

We talk a lot about the “globalists” because frankly, their agenda has become more open than ever in the past ten years.  There was a time not long ago when the idea of the existence of “globalists” was widely considered “conspiracy theory”. There was a time when organizations like the Bilderberg Group did not officially exist and the mainstream media rarely ever reported on them. There was a time when the agenda for one world economy and a one world government was highly secretive and mentioned only in whispers in the mainstream. And, anyone who tried to expose this information to the public was called a “tinfoil hat wearing lunatic”.

 

Today, the mainstream media writes puff-pieces about the Bilderberg Group and even jokes about their secrecy. When members of Donald Trump’s cabinet, Mike Pompeo and Jared Kushner, attended Bilderberg in 2019, the mainstream media was wallpapered with the news.

When the World Government Summit meets each year in Dubai, attended by many of the same people that attend Bilderberg as well as shady mainstream icons and gatekeepers like Elon Musk and Neil deGrasse Tyson, they don’t hide their discussions or their goals, they post them on YouTube.

I remember when talking about the US dollar being dethroned and replaced with a new one world currency system and a cashless society controlled by the IMF was treated as bizarre theory. Now it’s openly called for by numerous leaders in the financial industry and in economic governance. The claim that these things are “conspiracy theory” no longer holds up anymore. In reality, the people who made such accusations a few years ago now look like idiots as the establishment floods the media with information and propaganda promoting everything the liberty movement has been warning about.

The argument on whether or not a globalist agenda “exists” is OVER. The liberty movement and the alternative media won that debate, and through our efforts we have even forced the establishment into admitting the existence of some of their plans for a completely centralized global system managed by them. Now, the argument has changed. The mainstream doesn’t really deny anymore that the globalists exist; they talk about whether or not the globalist agenda is a good thing or a bad thing.

First, I would point out the sheer level of deception and disinformation used by the globalists over the past several decades.  This deceptions is designed to maneuver the public towards accepting a one world economy and eventually one world governance. If you have to lie consistently to people about your ideology in order to get them to support it, then there must be something very wrong with your ideology.

Second, the establishment may be going public with their plans for globalization, but they aren’t being honest about the consequences for the average person. And, there are many misconceptions out there, even in the liberty movement, about what exactly these people want.

So, we need to construct a list of globalist desires vs globalist lies in order to define who we are dealing with. These are the beliefs and arguments of your run-of-the-mill globalist:

Centralization

A globalist believes everything must be centralized, from finance to money to social access to production to government. They argue that centralization makes the system “more fair” for everyone, but in reality they desire a system in which they have total control over every aspect of life. Globalists, more than anything, want to dominate and micro-manage every detail of civilization and socially engineer humanity in the image they prefer.

One World Currency System And Cashless Society

As an extension of centralization, globalists want a single currency system for the world. Not only this, but they want it digitized and easy to track. Meaning, a cashless society in which every act of trade by every person can be watched and scrutinized. If trade is no longer private, preparation for rebellion becomes rather difficult. When all resources can be manged and restricted to a high degree at the local level, rebellion would become unthinkable because the system becomes the parent and provider and the source of life.  A one world currency and cashless system would be the bedrock of one world governance. You cannot have one without the other.

One World Government

Globalists want to erase all national borders and sovereignty and create a single elite bureaucracy, a one world empire in which they are the “philosopher kings” as described in Plato’s Republic.

As Richard N. Gardner, former deputy assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations under Kennedy and Johnson, and a member of the Trilateral Commission, wrote in the April, 1974 issue of the Council on Foreign Relation’s (CFR) journal Foreign Affairs (pg. 558) in an article titled ‘The Hard Road To World Order’:

In short, the ‘house of world order’ will have to be built from the bottom up rather than from the top down. It will look like a great ‘booming, buzzing confusion,’ to use William James’ famous description of reality, but an end run around national sovereignty, eroding it piece by piece, will accomplish much more than the old-fashioned frontal assault.”

This system would be highly inbred, though they may continue to give the masses the illusion of public participation and “democracy” for a time. Ultimately, the globalists desire a faceless and unaccountable round table government, a seat of power which acts as an institution with limited liability, much like a corporation, and run in the same sociopathic manner without legitimate public oversight. In the globalist world, there will be no redress of grievances.

Sustainability As Religion

Globalists often use the word “sustainability” in their white papers and agendas, from Agenda 21 to Agenda 2030. Environmentalism is the facade they employ to guilt the population into supporting global governance, among other things. As I noted in my recent article ‘Why Is The Elitist Establishment So Obsessed With Meat’, fake environmentalism and fraudulent global warming “science” is being exploited by globalists to demand control over everything from how much electricity you can use in your home, to how many children you can have, to how much our society is allowed to manufacture or produce, to what you are allowed to eat.

The so-called carbon pollution threat, perhaps the biggest scam in history, is a key component of the globalist agenda. As the globalist organization The Club Of Rome, a sub-institution attached to the United Nations, stated in their book ‘The First Global Revolution’:

In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like, would fit the bill. In their totality and their interactions these phenomena do constitute a common threat which must be confronted by everyone together. But in designating these dangers as the enemy, we fall into the trap, which we have already warned readers about, namely mistaking symptoms for causes. All these dangers are caused by human intervention in natural processes. and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome. The real enemy then is humanity itself.”

In other words, by presenting human beings as a species as the great danger, the globalists hope to convince humanity to sublimate itself before the mother earth goddess and beg to be kept in line. And, as the self designated “guardians” of the Earth, the elites become the high priests of the new religion of sustainability. They and they alone would determine who is a loyal servant and who is a heretic. Carbon pollution becomes the new “original sin”; everyone is a sinner against the Earth, for everyone breaths and uses resources, and we must all do our part to appease the Earth by sacrificing as much as possible, even ourselves.

The elites don’t believe in this farce, they created it.  The sustainability cult is merely a weapon to be used to dominate mass psychology and make the populace more malleable.

Population Control

Globalists come from an ideological background which worships eugenics – the belief that genetics must be controlled and regulated, and those people they deem to be undesirables must be sterilized or exterminated.

The modern eugenics movement was launched by the Rockefeller Foundation in the early 1900’s in America, and was treated a a legitimate scientific endeavor for decades. Eugenics was taught in schools and even celebrated at the World’s Fair. States like California that adopted eugenics legislation forcefully sterilized tens of thousands of people and denied thousands of marriage certificates based on genetics. The system was transferred to Germany in the 1930’s were it gained world renown for its inherent brutality.

This ideology holds that 4% or less of the population is genetically worthy of leadership, and the elites conveniently assert that they represent part of that genetic purity.

After WWII the public developed a distaste for the idea of eugenics and population control, but under the guise of environmentalism the agenda is making a comeback, as population reduction in the name of “saving the Earth” is in the mainstream media once again.  The Question then arises – Who gets to decide who lives and who dies?  Who gets to decide who is never born?  And, how will they come to their decisions?  No doubt a modern form of eugenics will be presented as the “science” used to “fairly” determine the content of the population if the elites get their way.

Narcissistic Sociopathy

It is interesting that the globalists used to present the 4% leadership argument in their eugenics publications, because 4% of the population is also consistent with the number of people who have inherent sociopathy or narcissistic sociopathy, either in latent or full-blown form, with 1% of people identified as full blown psychopaths and the rest as latent.  Coincidence?

The behavior of the globalists is consistent with the common diagnosis of full-blown narcopaths, a condition which is believed to be inborn and incurable. Narcopaths (pyschopaths) are devoid of empathy and are often self obsessed. They suffer from delusions of grandeur and see themselves as “gods” among men. They believe other lowly people are tools to be used for their pleasure or to further their ascendance to godhood.  They lie incessantly as a survival mechanism and are good at determining what people want to hear.  Narcopaths feel no compassion towards those they harm or murder, yet crave attention and adoration from the same people they see as inferior. More than anything, they seek the power to micro-manage the lives of everyone around them and to feed off those people like a parasite feeds off a host victim.

Luciferianism

It is often argued by skeptics that psychopaths cannot organize cohesively, because such organizations would self destruct.  These people simply don’t know what they’re talking about.  Psychopaths throughout history organize ALL THE TIME, from tyrannical governments to organized crime and religious cults.  The globalists have their own binding ideologies and methods for organization.  One method is to ensure benefits to those who serve the group (as well as punishments for those who stray).  Predators often work together as long as there is ample prey.  Another method is the use of religious or ideological superiority; making adherents feel like they are part of an exclusive and chosen few destined for greatness.

This is a highly complicated issue which requires its own essay to examine in full. I believe I did this effectively in my article ‘Luciferians: A Secular Look At A Destructive Globalist Belief System’. Needless to say, this agenda is NOT one that globalists are willing to admit to openly very often, but I have outlined extensive evidence that luciferianism is indeed the underlying globalist cult religion. It is essentially an ideology which promotes moral relativism, the worship of the self and the attainment of godhood by any means necessary – which fits perfectly with globalism and globalist behavior.

It is also the only ideological institution adopted by the UN, through the UN’s relationship with Lucis Trust, also originally called Lucifer Publishing Company. Lucis Trust still has a private library within the UN building today.

So, now that we know the various agendas and identifiers of globalists, we can now ask “Who are the globalists?”

 

The answer is – ANYONE who promotes the above agendas, related arguments, or any corporate or political leader who works directly with them.  This includes presidents that claim to be anti-globalist while also filling their cabinets with people from globalist organizations.

To make a list of names is simple; merely study the membership rosters of globalists organizations like the Bilderberg Group, the Council On Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, Tavistock Institute, the IMF, the BIS, World Bank, the UN, etc. You will find a broad range of people from every nation and every ethnicity ALL sharing one goal – A world in which the future for every other person is dictated by them for all time; a world in which freedom is a memory and individual choice is a commodity only they have the right to enjoy.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

A good commentary from Jonathan turley as he explains the nonsense exhibited by the Democrats to rush the impeachment.

(Jonathan Turley)

Jonathan Turley Slams Schiff’s Need To Impeach By Christmas

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

The House Judiciary Committee is about to approve two articles of impeachment as member after member last night declared that time is of the essence. The House is now set to fulfill its pledge to impeach President Donald Trump by Christmas. For some us, the mad rush toward impeachment by the Democrats has been utterly incomprehensible.  It is difficult enough to go to the Senate in a presidential impeachment without an accepted crime and on the narrowest basis in history.  However, the Democrats know that they have combined those liabilities with the thinnest record of any modern impeachment – a record filled with gaps and conflicts.  The Democrats know that this record is guaranteed to fail and could easily justify the Senate holding a trial as cursory as its hearings.  Yet, they would prefer guaranteed failure rather than build a credible case for removal.  Why? The reasons put forward by House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and others are not credible and, given the paucity of examination given these claims, it is worth closer scrutiny.

So, to use Stephen Hawkings’ famous constructhere is a brief history of time for impeachment.

So why? The answer to that question will likely occupy historians for decades after this slipshod impeachment is summarily rejected.  In the impeachment hearing, I testified that President Donald Trump could be impeached for abuse of power but that the record was facially inadequate and incomplete. I encouraged the Committee to just take a few more months to subpoena roughly ten witnesses with direct evidence and secure judicial orders that I believe would support the Committee on its obstruction article.  While I was relieved to see the Committee drop the allegations of bribery, extortion, and other crimes that I testified against, it refused to simply take a little more time to develop a more complete case.

None of the excuses for the pledge to impeach by Christmas are even remotely plausible.  They can be divided into two basic groupings: court challenges would take too much time and there is a crime in progress that must be stopped.

No Time To Wait

First, there is the argument by Chairman Schiff in response to the criticism over the short investigation (which even the New York Times has challenged). Schiff insisted that waiting will mean a guarantee of that there will be no impeachment while also guaranteeing that there will be foreign meddling in the 2020 election:  “People should understand what that argument really means. It has taken us eight months to get a lower court ruling that Don McGahn has no absolute right to defy Congress. Eight months for one court decision.” As has consistently been the case, no major media outfit seemed interested to fact check that statement.  It happens to be untrue.

The House waited until August 7th to go to court to compel McGahn’s appearance.  That was roughly four months ago, not eight.  It was also filed before the House voted to start the impeachment inquiry on October 31st.  Back in January, I testified in the House Judiciary Committee and pushed the Committee to hold such a vote to allow for expedited cases over testimony like McGahn’s.  At the time, I warned that the House was running out of runway to get an impeachment off the ground.  With such a vote, these cases could have moved at the accelerated pace of an impeachment.

So not only has the House gone two years without opening an impeachment inquiry, it burned over three months without going to court to enforce a subpoena in the Ukrainian controversy.  Indeed, a court was close to ruling on such a subpoena in the case of Charles Kupperman, a former deputy national security adviser. Kupperman was ready to testify but simply wanted judicial guidance. The House withdrew the subpoena before the court could rule and this week Kupperman is still trying to keep the case in court to get a ruling against the determined efforts of the House.

In the Nixon case, the White House moved to quash a subpoena for the Watergate tapes on May 1st. Judge John Sirica denied St. Clair’s motion on 19 days later.  On May 24th, an appeal was taken to the D.C. Circuit but the case was taken directly to the Supreme Court.  Oral arguments were heard on July 8th and a ruling issued only three weeks later.  That is three months. That is what can happen when you expedite a matter as an impeachment matter.

The question is why would the House not only refuse to try to secure these witnesses but actually withdraw a subpoena before a ruling in the Kupperman.  The December deadline is more logically tied to the Iowa caucuses than any litigation schedule. It is not the judicial but political calendar that appears the pressing concern in this schedule.

This Is An Ongoing Crime Spree

 

The second argument is that there must be action now because President Trump is actively seeking to undermine the 2020 elections. Chairman Schiff declared “The argument, ‘why don’t you just wait’ amounts to this: ‘why don’t you just let him cheat in one more election? Why not let him cheat just one more time?’”

Rep. Eric Swalwell further declared that the House must act because this is a “crime spree in progress.”  Rep. David Cicilline similarly declared that time was of the essence because this is a “crime in progress.” Likewise, Rep. Cedric Richmond (D, La) explained that they cannot wait because “this is a crime in process” and this is a 911 moment.  It makes for riveting rhetoric but it is detached from any objective view of the facts, even if you object to to the call and request for an investigation. What is the ongoing crime in Ukraine?  The aid has been paid. Moreover, how does rushing an incomplete impeachment case to certain failure stop an ongoing crime?  These members are pushing forward a half-formed case that will be easily to dismiss – and calling it “tough on crime.” Finally, the Johnson, Clinton, and Nixon cases all had recognized crimes, not metaphorical crimes.  Yet, those cases were based on long investigative periods that produced massive and comprehensive records.

What is equally concerning is that this claim of a “crime spree” is based not just on the request for investigations in Ukraine, but earlier public statements made by President Trump, including during the campaign. Chairman Jerry Nadler last night said the pattern includes then candidate Donald Trump calling for the Russians to hand over the Clinton emails. That was before Trump took office and it is now being somehow used as part of an impeachment. It is also a comment that Trump and his supporters maintained was a joke. It did seem like a public statement on a campaign trail that was mockery. Now it has been cited as part of this pattern of a conspiracy to invite foreign interference with our elections — a conspiracy that was expressly rejected by the FBI, the Inspector General, and the Special Counsel. This is an example of how this incomplete record quickly breaks down under scrutiny and why the House needs to build an actual not aspirational case for impeachment.

Let’s be clear.  Many of us have criticized the references to the Bidens. However, there was no invitation to intervene in the election.  It certainly was not akin to the Russian hacking operation in 2016. Many presidents ask for actions that would benefit them politically in an election year.  Any request that might benefit a president is not an invitation for intervention or rigging of an election. To portray that as rigging the 2020 election (and to suggest that it is an ongoing crime) is not just hyperbolic but highly misleading. Moreover, this line of argument does not address why a delay of two months would somehow magnify this danger.  As noted, the Democrats allowed months to pass without seeking subpoenas for witnesses like John Bolton and withdrew other subpoenas.  How would sending an impeachment guaranteed to fail help in any way to stop such intervention? Indeed, what the Democrats are doing would seem to encourage such alleged misconduct by all but forcing an acquittal in the Senate. If you really want to combat such misconduct, you would build this case and seek a vote in the early Spring with a full record.

There is no question that impeachment by Christmas is the ultimate stocking stuffer for many voters. However, this is marketing a known defective product that will not last long outside of the box.

END
Sara Carter reports that President Trump will not be removed
(Sara Carter)

McConnell: “There’s No Chance The President’s Going To Be Removed”

Via SaraACarter.com,

In a rare interview on Fox News’ “Hannity” Thursday night, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) expressed certainty that President Donald Trump would stay in office despite the fact that there has yet to be a vote on impeachment.

“There’s no chance the President’s going to be removed from office,” McConnell told Hannity.

Further, McConnell said he expects all Republicans and even some Democrats to vote against impeachment.

“This is a thoroughly political exercise. It’s not like a courtroom experience, It’s a political exercise. They’ve been trying to do this for three years. They’ve finally screwed up their courage to do it,” McConnell said.

He continued,

“It looks to me like it may be backfiring on them particularly in swing districts that the Speaker’s party managed to win in order to get the majority. Most of the nervousness I see on this issue with politicians since it’s a political process is on the Democratic side.”

House Democrats charged the President with abuse of power and obstruction of congress earlier this week. Soon after, the House Judiciary Committee began debating those charges. They were expected to hold an official vote late Thursday after debating the articles for fourteen hours, but the Committee’s Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) delayed that vote.

end
Finally, a mainstream media reports that Eric Ciaramella is the whistleblower something that we have been rpeorting on for the past few months
(zerohedge)

NY Post Editorial Board Names Eric Ciaramella As Whistleblower

The New York Post Editorial Board has named CIA analyst Eric Ciaramella as the whistleblower at the heart of the Trump impeachment saga, confirming an October 30 report by RealClearInvestigation‘s Paul Sperry which has been widely cited in subsequent reports.

 

Eric Ciaramella poses for a photo with former President Barack Obama at the White House. (Via the Washington Examiner)

Whistleblower lawyers refuse to confirm or deny Ciaramella is their man. His identity is apparently the worst-kept secret of the Washington press corps. In a sign of how farcical this has become, Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) said his name as part of a series of names during a live hearing Wednesday night aired on television. He never called him the whistleblower, just said he was someone Republicans thought should testify, yet Democrats angrily denounced the “outing.” If you don’t know the man’s name, how do you know the man’s name? –New York Post

Ciaramella, a registered Democrat, is a CIA analyst who specializes in Russia and Ukraine, and ran the Ukraine desk at the National Security Council (NSC) in 2016. He previously worked for then-NSC adviser Susan Rice, as well as Joe Biden when the former VP was the Obama administration’s point-man for Ukraine. He also worked for former CIA Director John Brennan, and was reportedly a highly valued employee according to RedStates Elizabeth Vaughn. He also became former National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster’s personal aide in June 2017, was called out as a leaker by journalist Mike Cernovich that same month.

He also worked Alexandra Chalupa, a Ukrainian-American lawyer and Democratic operative involved in allegations that Ukraine meddled in the 2016 US election by releasing the so-called ‘Black Ledger’ that contained Paul Manafort’s name.

In 2017, former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon wanted Ciaramella kicked off the National Security Council over concerns about leaks.

Earlier this year, Ciaramella ignited the Democratic impeachment efforts against President Trump when, using second-hand information, he anonymously complained that Trump abused his office when he asked Ukraine to investigate corruption allegations against Joe Biden and his son Hunter, as well as claims related to pro-Clinton election interference and DNC hacking in 2016.

Ciaramella notably contacted House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff’s (D-CA) office before filing his complaint, on a form which was altered to allow for second-hand information, after going to a Democratic operative attorney who will neither confirm nor deny his status as the whistleblower.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

After the close, US officials confirmed that a Phase-1 deal has been made as well as a budget deal.

US and China reach phase one trade deal, source tells FOX Business

A deal is done, with some fine-tuning on the details underway

  • The Chinese agree to buy $50B in agriculture, but will not write that amount down on paper. It’s a verbal agreement on the number of purchases
  • On paper, it includes a section on stronger intellectual protections
  • Includes language around an end to currency manipulation by the Chinese
  • Phase 2 negotiations will happen after the 2020 elections

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-and-china-reach-phase-one-trade-deal-source

Be alert for a downside reversal if there is manic buying early.  At some point, and it could be anytime from today until weeks from now, saner angels and wise men will realize that there can be no more  US-China trade hype stories to boost stocks until at least November 2020.

Fed plans to double repo market intervention to avoid cash crunch – The US Federal Reserve will pump almost half a trillion dollars into the financial system over the end of the year

https://www.ft.com/content/f9c20bde-1d23-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4

With impeachment nearing a denouement and Horowitz setting the table for Barr and Durham, Dem leaders are in panic mode.  Several Dem icons unleashed vicious attacks on Barr – even though he has not done anything yet.  There is palpable fear among leading Dems because they know what was done.

 

As the adage does, ‘If you’re getting heavy flak, you can be certain that you are over the right target.’

 

@RepAdamSchiff: Ever since he was appointed Attorney General and demonstrated that his loyalty is to Donald Trump and not the interests of justice, I have warned: When it comes to the rule of law, Bill Barr is the second most dangerous man in the country.

 

@SaraCarterDC: Eric Holder pens [WaPo] op-ed‘Barr is unfit to be attorney general’

[The House voted (255-67) Holder in contempt, the first in history, over the gun running to Mexican cartels scandal (“Fast and Furious”)]  https://t.co/D9JGveWYWo

 

Long-time Dem Rep from Chicago Bobby Rush introduced: H.Res.757 – Calling for the resignation and disbarment of United States Attorney General William P. Barr, and for other purposes.

https://t.co/FrWOhF0g4O

 

Comey, on December 10, also disparaged Barr.  Why are these big names slamming Barr when the AG has done NOTHING to date?  Yep, we all know why.

 

GOP @RepRatcliffe: Alexander Hamilton said the greatest danger of impeachment would be depriving a president of due process and using impeachment politically by the party that has the most votes in the House. Sadly, that day has come. Today’s Democrats are the Founders’ worst nightmare.

 

John Solomon @jsolomonReports: Reporters got too much wrong on Russia. There was no collusion. Carter Page wasn’t a Russian spy. Steele dossier wasn’t credible nor confirmed. Surveillance was illegal. FBI wasn’t vindicated. Time for a new type of news outlet. Stay tuned for big announcement next month.

@Olivia_Beavers: One source tells me their understanding of legislative schedule next week is:

> Impeachment vote on Wednesday, the 18th

> USMCA on Thursday, the 19th

> CR on Friday, the 20th

Though, things could still change, no formal announcement(s) has been made.

Undercover Huber @JohnWHuber: Seems like a major takeaway from the IG report everyone is ignoring is that for months Mueller employed a lawyer who fabricated evidence to mislead the FISA court.  Time to start asking what other legal documents Clinesmith had a role in “editing”

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog//

 

Unconstitutional Trump Impeachment, Deep State Threats, Rich Buy Gold

By Greg Hunter On December 13, 2019

The impeachment of President Trump continues even though not a single specific crime has been identified by House Democrats. The two articles Dems settled on are “Abuse of Power” and “Obstruction of Congress.” Neither is a proper reason to impeach a President according to the U.S. Constitution. Speaker Pelosi says House members should vote their conscience. Will the House vote to impeach with phony unconstitutional charges and zero crimes committed by President Trump? Yes, but will it pass? We are going to find out before Christmas.

Many people say they do not expect charges to come from the bombshell IG Report that outlined many crimes and failures in the Trump/Russia collusion hoax and FISA abuse. Many also say this was a failed coup attempt by Democrats and the Deep State. If no real charges were coming, the deepest of Deep State players, former AG Eric Holder, in the Obama Administration would not be out in front with an Op-Ed in the Washington Post criticizing AG Barr and questioning the reputation of Barr’s top prosecutor. Somebody is very worried, and Holder’s toxic Op-Ed is a big tipoff.

The rich are buying gold. This revelation leaked out in an investment note to clients from Goldman Sachs. The note cites “fear driven demand.” I thought the economy was great, but Goldman Sachs must believe otherwise.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he gives his take in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

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