DEC 16/GOLD DOWN 40 CENTS//SILVER UP 12//GOLD CLOSED AT $1476.20//SILVER AT $17.07//QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES TO COMEX GOLD AS THE BANKERS TRY TO PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE//HUGE CHINESE STATE OWNED BANK DEFAULTS (TAEWOO) AND THIS IS A COMMODITY BASED BANK//TURKEY IS NOW SUPPORTING GOVERNMENT IN TRIPOLI AGAINST USA INTERESTS/TURKEY AGAIN WARNS USA THAT THEY WILL CLOSE BASES IN INCIRCLIK TURKEY/POSZAR VS SKRYM ON REPO: HUGE SUBSCRIPTION ON REPO THIS MORNING WITH AN ADDED BONUS OF AN INCREASE INT THE REPO RATE FROM 1.5% TO 1.69%//HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1476.20 DOWN $0.40    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.07 UP 12 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1476.70

 

silver:  $17.05

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 22/71

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,475.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/13/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/17/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 25
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 7
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 22
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 21 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 49 11
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 71 71
MONTH TO DATE: 13,358

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 71 NOTICE(S) FOR 7100 OZ (0.2208 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  13358 NOTICES FOR 1,335,800 OZ  (41.548 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

129 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 645,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3330 for 16,650,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7087 DOWN 30 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 6938 DOWN 253

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 478 CONTRACTS FROM 204,359 DOWN TO 203,880 DESPITE THE 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  266 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  266 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 266 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 266 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.33 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

19.060   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 7 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED  213 CONTRACTS. OR 1.065 MILLION OZ…..

IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING A LITTLE SCARED WITH THEIR BURGEONING SILVER SHORT SO THEY LIGHTENED UP A BIT.

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

21,082 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 21,082 CONTRACTS) OR 105.41 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1757 CONTRACTS OR 8.784 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  105.41 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,194.97   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 479, DESPITE THE 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 266 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE LOST A VERY SMALL SIZED: 135 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 266 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 479 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 7 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.95 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.019 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 129 NOTICE(S) FOR 645,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  19.060 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG 8854 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING CLOSER TO THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 711,754. THE RISE IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED WITH A  $8.60 PRICING GAIN ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 6904 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  9 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 711,754,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,758 CONTRACTS: 8854 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6904 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 15,758 CONTRACTS OR 1,575,800 OZ OR 49.01 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $8.60 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 49.01  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP  $8.60) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (49.019 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 98,058 CONTRACTS OR 9,805,800 oz OR 305.00 TONNES (12 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,171 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 305.00 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 2305.00/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.59% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     6,031.06  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8854 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($8.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6904 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6904 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 15,758 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6904 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 8854 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 50.469 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $8.60 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN .40 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

DEC 16/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 885.93 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

DEC 16/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 479 CONTRACTS from 204,359 DOWN TO 203,880 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  266  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 266 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 479  CONTRACTS TO THE 266 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 213 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1.065 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 19.060 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 7 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 266 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.72 POINTS OR 0.56%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 179.67 POINTS OR 0.45%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 70.75 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.57%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0001 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0001 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0000 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

North Korea conducts another crucial test to bolster its “nuclear deterrence”

(zerohedge) 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

China

One of the big news items of the day:  China announces a huge banking default:  state owned giant ban: TeeWoo.  A harbinger of things to come as we now witness for the first time failures of state owned banks.

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Greece/Libya/Hafter/Turkey

This is getting to be a powder  keg.  On Friday we announced that Turkey is supporting the ailing Tripoli government. The USA is supporting Hafter and his Benghazi gang.  Greece has decided to support the Hafter/USA group against Turkey.  Turkey’s finances are extremely low and they can ill afford this conflict.

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/NATO

Turkey tells NATO to shove it as they threaten to suffer the critical military bases in Incirlik Turkey

(zeorhedge)

6.Global Issues

i)The diamond business is now facing a crisis as De Beers signals rough times ahead

(zerohedge)

ii)Is Corbyn’s defeat a wakeup call for Democrats and basically socialists from around the world

(Mish Shedlock)Mishtalk)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Daniel Amerman confirms Lee Adler assertion of a 90% Fed purchase of the USA deficit and that was to keep rates form rising and crashing markets

(Daniel Amerman/GATA)

ii)Mnuchin stupidly claims that the USA is not weaponizing the dollar.  However he adds that sanctions are an alternative to war

(CNBC/GATA)

iii)Goldman Sachs report that as the Fed injects hundreds of billion of dollars we find that physical gold in disappears out of vaults

(zerohedge)

iv)8 currencies are stronger than the dollar

(Business Week/gata)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)The correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and the stock market..a perfect correlation!

(zerohedge)

b)USA manufacturing pMI falters last month

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Monday Morning//early//what to expect!!!: D Day: 

Who will be right: Poszar or Skyrm or Lee Adler?? 
read this first…and then read the following commentary
(zerohedge)

b)Monday morning: in today’s repo operation it is again oversubscribed by a huge amount as dealers and hedge funds are trying to secure funding. Poszar told us to watch for repo rates rising and sure enough it rose today from 1.5 to 1.69%(zerohedge)

c)The USA deficit to 2020 is projected to come in at 1.01 trillion.  With other balance sheet needs such as student loans etc , the treasury will issue 1.08 trillion in new funding. The Fed will buy 40% of that

(zerohedge)

d)A good one: how the USA has basically folded to China by reducing tariffs and allowing China to continue its ascent in power(zerohedge)

e)The failing USA state pension system will need a federal bailout.  The bottom three states:  Illinois, Kentucky and New Jersey

(Brandon Smith)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Rudy returns and can barely contain himself as to what he has discovered about the Bidens in the UKraine

(zerohedge)

b)This can be very ominous to our Democrats:  Jeff Van Drew has defected to the Republicans

(zerohedge)

c)Nunes letter describes all of Schiff’s lies  and the cover up

(zerohedge)

d)The second lie: Mueller et al knew that Carter Page was not a Russian agent and yet still asked for a FISA warrant to spy on him and thus Trump

(zerohedge)

e)An absolute joke: Schumer insists on impeachment witnesses but downplays the Bidens testimony as witnesses as well as the whistleblower calling them distractions

(zerohedge)

f)Jonathan Turley asks why no official apology to Carter Page

(Turley)

g)What are these guys up to? Democrats demanding Mueller’s secret grand jury files

they are totally nuts!
(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8854 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 711,754 WITH THE GAIN OF $8.60 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6904 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 200 ; FEB: 6904  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6904 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 16,226 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6904 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 9322 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $8.60). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 15,758 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  15,758 CONTRACTS OR 1,575,800 OZ OR 49.01 TONNES.  ( PLUS THE GAIN IN TONNES OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX 0.479 TONNES)

 

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 736 open interest stand for a LOSS of 340 contracts.  We had 494 notices filed upon yesterday so we AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED FOR THE TENTH DAY IN A ROW, A STRONG+++  154 contracts or an additional 15,400 OZ will stand (0.479 TONNES) for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and negated on receiving a fiat bonus.

 

we had:  71 notice(s) filed upon for 7100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI INCREASE by 0 contracts UP to 5162 which is extremely high for a January delivery month and the OI is not rolling to Feb…these guys are intent to stand for delivery as well!!.. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A GAIN  OF 6454 in contracts UP to 506,435.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 479 CONTRACTS FROM 204,359 DOWN TO 203,880(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH DESPITE A 7 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/FRIDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a LOSS of 24 contracts DOWN to 611. We had 31 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we GAINED ANOTHER 7 contracts or an additional 35,000  oz will stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

After December, we have a GAIN in the next front month of January of 96 contracts to stand at 994.  The Feb non active month saw a loss of 1 contracts DOWN to 203.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 853 contracts DOWN to 159,486

 

We, today, had 129 notice(s) filed for 645,000, OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 162,156  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  372,832  contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 16/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
321.151 oz
Brinks
one kilobar
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 201.07 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

16,033.275 oz

jpmorgan

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
71 notice(s)
 7100 OZ
(0.2208 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
665 contracts
(6,6500 oz)
2.086 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
13,358 notices
1,335,800 OZ
41.548 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
for the first time in quite a while, this week we have had considerable gold activity

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 16,033.275 oz

 

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 16,033.275 oz

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

ii) out of Brinks:  32.151 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 32.15 oz  one kilobar

We had 1 adjustment

Out of Int. Delaware:

we had 10,031.112 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of Int Del.

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 71 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 22 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,358) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (736 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (71 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,402,300 OZ OR 43.62 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (13,358 x 100 oz)  + (736)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (71 x 100 oz )which equals 1,402,300 oz standing OR 43.62 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

We gained 154 contracts or an additional 15,400 oz will stand at the comex as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 35.377 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              43.62 TONNES

 

total: 119.59 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 14.8656 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 119.59  tonnes

 

Thus:

119.59 tonnes of delivery –

14.8656 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 104.72 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.377 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,374,943.959 oz or  42.766 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,137,390.3 oz (35.377 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged)  1,137390.3 tonnes  (35.377 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,777,566.603 oz 273.019 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

 

WE HAD 71 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  7100 OZ. (0.2208 TONNES)

 

end

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 1 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
578,963.800 oz
CNT

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
828,125.220 oz
CNT
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
129
CONTRACT(S)
(645,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
482 contracts
 2,410,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3330 contracts

16,650,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

i Into CNT:  578,963.800 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 578,963.800 oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   227,304.380

 

ii) Into CNT: 600,820.840oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.4% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/313.4 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  828,125.220  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT: 21,921.688 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 600,003.700 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 621,925.588  oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  86.616 million

total dealer + customer silver:  317.097 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 129 contract(s) FOR 645,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3330 x 5,000 oz = 16,650,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (611) and the number of notices served upon today 129 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 3330 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (611)- number of notices served upon today (129) x 5000 oz equals 19,060,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We gained 7 contracts or an additional 35,000 oz will stand at the comex as they, refused to morphed into London based forwards. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 129 notice(s) filed for 645,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  48,505 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 80,791 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 80,791 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 403 million  OZ 57.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.91% ((DEC 16/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.22% to NAV (DEC 13/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.91%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.69 TRADING 14.14///DISCOUNT  3,72

 

END

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 16/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 885.93 tonnes

*IN LAST 725 TRADING DAYS: 51.32 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 625 TRADING DAYS: A NET 115.73 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

 

 

DEC 16:  SLV INVENTORY

365.605 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.89/ and libor 6 month duration 1.90

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE:+ .01

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.94%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Coins Worth Thousands Generously Donated To Salvation Army

 Gold coins worth thousands generously gifted to the charity again this year
◆ It just means so much … because it means that they went out of their way to do something extra special…”
◆ Salvation Army gold donors keep giving gold coins including Gold Krugerrands anonymously every year
 At least three gold coins worth some $4,500 have again been generously gifted to charity this year (that we know of)
◆ Gold, like pounds, euros and dollars can be used for good or ill
◆ Give the gift of gold in this the Season of Kindness

Salvation Army volunteer James Bond found a gold coin valued at $1,500 inside his kettle in Noblesville. Source: Salvation Army via USA Today

Anonymous Donor Drops $1,500 Gold Coin in Salvation Army Kettle

by Elizabeth DePompei, USA Today

Among the crumpled bills and pocket change, a Salvation Army bell ringer in Indiana recently found a shiny gold coin in his red kettle.

But not just any gold coin. This coin, a 1915 100 Corona Austrian gold coin, was valued at $1,500. And the name of the man who collected it outside of a Noblesville Walgreens is just as smile-worthy: James Bond.

“It is really cool,” Bond said in statement. “I hear about that stuff in the news, but now it’s with me, so I feel like I’m part of this big thing that people really care about.”

Sam Hyde, a Salvation Army spokesman for Central Indiana, said every penny is appreciated, but such a large donation can make a bigger difference.

“It just means so much … because it means that they went out of their way to do something extra special,” Hyde said.

Because Thanksgiving fell on the last week of November, the Salvation Army has had less time this year to run its red kettle campaign. Volunteers and staff typically start hitting the stores on Black Friday.

“This year has been a tough year. It really has been,” Hyde said. “So something like this is a huge jolt to our fundraising efforts.”

It’s not uncommon for people to mysteriously leave high-valued items in kettles, Hyde said. Things like wedding rings and “the occasional gold tooth.”

Funds raised during the campaign allow the Salvation Army to operate two community centers, a homeless shelter for women and children, multiple food pantries and an addiction treatment center in Central Indiana.

Bond said in the statement that he first started ringing the iconic Salvation Army bell “because I just needed a job.”

“But when they said we are the army behind the Army, it just made sense to me that I can ring a bell and make a difference,” he said.

Full article via USA Today

Three Krugerrands, 1899 Gold Piece Among Special Coins Put in Salvation Army Kettles This Year

By Matt Trotter, Public Radio Tulsa

It’s a holiday tradition in Tulsa.

Special coins from anonymous donors have been found in Salvation Army red kettles, including three South African krugerrands and an 1899 U.S. gold piece.

Two 1978 gold krugerrands were donated at the 71st Street and Sheridan Road Reasor’s on Nov. 30. On Wednesday the 1899 twenty-dollar gold piece was found wrapped in a $2 silver certificate bill at the Hobby Lobby at 51st Street and Sheridan Road. A third krugerrand turned up Thursday at the Reasor’s at 41st Street and Yale Avenue.

Full article via GATA.org

 

Is Your Gold and Silver Bullion S.A.F.E. ?
Segregated, Actionable, Flexible and what are the total Expenses?

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold prices settle higher to score a gain for the week

Gold steadies as dollar dips, traders await trade deal fineprint

Beijing fumes at US’ reported expulsion of Chinese diplomats for 1st time in 30 years

China hit by biggest dollar bond default by state company in two decades

German economy stagnating despite signs of end to industrial downturn

Hundreds Of Billions In Gold And Cash Are Quietly Disappearing

The Perfect Storm Launches Metals Markets Higher

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

13-Dec-19 1470.60 1466.60, 1097.51 1099.07 & 1315.60 1315.10
12-Dec-19 1474.70 1467.80, 1117.82 1116.56 & 1325.02 1319.55
11-Dec-19 1468.05 1466.80, 1116.89 1112.71 & 1324.92 1322.47
10-Dec-19 1464.45 1464.95, 1112.25 1112.04 & 1322.69 1322.26
09-Dec-19 1463.60 1461.70, 1112.04 1111.48 & 1323.09 1320.06
06-Dec-19 1474.85 1459.65, 1122.80 1112.40 & 1328.54 1320.25
05-Dec-19 1474.60 1475.95, 1122.76 1122.31 & 1329.65 1329.54
04-Dec-19 1475.85 1475.10, 1131.53 1125.94 & 1332.54 1327.89
03-Dec-19 1470.40 1477.30, 1132.50 1136.78 & 1328.51 1333.12
02-Dec-19 1457.50 1461.15, 1130.00 1130.05 & 1323.26 1321.17
29-Nov-19 1456.35 1460.15, 1129.55 1131.32 & 1323.24 1327.42

Watch Our Latest Video Update Here

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HER

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

8 currencies are stronger than the dollar

(Business Week/gata)

Dollar has been strong but 8 major currencies have been stronger this year

 Section: 

By Ben Winck
Business Insider, New York
Saturday, December 14, 2019

President Trump railed against the U.S. dollar’s relative strength through much of 2019, but eight major currencies are on track to outperform the dollar this year.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is up roughly 1.2% in the year-to-date, surging in strength despite summer recession warnings and continued trade-war tensions. It performed best against the Turkish lira this year, a Bank of America note comparing major currencies said Friday.

… 

In July, Trump reportedly asked White House aides to look into ways to devalue the American currency. A weaker dollar would give the United States an advantage in international trade, but currency manipulation would also cut into the country’s reputation abroad. Trump even criticized China for how its central bank allowed the yuan to slip below a key psychological level in early August.

Here are the eight major currencies that outperformed the U.S. dollar in 2019, ranked in ascending order. Performance is as of December 11. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.businessinsider.com/top-8-major-currencies-outperform-strong…

END’

Mnuchin stupidly claims that the USA is not weaponizing the dollar.  However he adds that sanctions are an alternative to war

(CNBC/GATA)

U.S. isn’t weaponizing dollar, treasury secretary claims, but adds that sanctions are alternative to war

 Section: 

But by definition sanctions weaponize the dollar, so what’s the difference here?

* * *

By Natasha Tarak
CNBC, New York
Saturday, December 14, 2019

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Saturday rejected the suggestion that the Trump administration is weaponizing the dollar through its trade-restricting policies with other countries.

“Let me be clear: we are not weaponizing the U.S. dollar,” Mnuchin told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble at the Doha Forum in Qatar. “If anything I would say the opposite; I take great responsibility that people use the dollar as the reserve currency of the world, and the dollar is quite strong — sometimes the president says the dollar is too strong.

… 

The dollar is strong because of the U.S. economy and because people want to hold dollars and the safety of the U.S. dollar. So because of that, we take sanctions responsibility very seriously — as a matter of fact, I personally sign off on every single piece of sanction that we do.”

Officials in China and Europe have been actively promoting their currencies as substitutes for the dollar when it comes to both reserves and transactions, particularly in the face of expanding U.S. sanctions and protectionist trade policies like tariffs. …

“The reason why we’re using sanctions is because they are an important alternative for world military conflicts. And I believe it’s worked,” the secretary said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/14/mnuchin-us-isnt-weaponizing-dollar-sanct…

* * *

END

Daniel Amerman confirms Lee Adler assertion of a 90% Fed purchase of the USA deficit and that was to keep rates form rising and crashing markets

(Daniel Amerman/GATA)

 Section: 

11:50a ET Sunday,December 15, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial analyst Daniel Amerman calculates this week that in the last three months the Federal Reserve has been monetizing 90 percent of the U.S. government’s exploding budget deficit in the hope of preventing interest rates from rising and thereby crashing the stock, bond, and housing markets.

Amerman writes: “The Fed is creating new money and using it to buy massive amounts of government obligations at very low interest rates so that the U.S. government does not need to raise the money from private parties (as it is supposed to) who might require higher interest rates. …

… 

“… the Federal Reserve has begun emergency maneuvers to make sure that the federal government can get the vast sums of cash it is currently taking out of the financial system — sucking $422 billion in new cash out of the system in just the last 12 weeks — without triggering the increase in interest rates that could bring the system crashing down. For lack of alternatives, that has in practice meant just creating the money, even if the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are very careful to never actually admit that. …

“If interest rates were to merely return to average, and stock, bond, and home valuations were to return to long-term (inflation-adjusted) averages, the loss in net worth for the average person could be staggering — and it could be immediate. Yes, there are very much long-term dangers from the national debt when it comes to inflation and the like — but the immediate and near-term dangers could instead involve staggering stock and housing losses.”

Your secretary/treasurer construes this as more evidence that, as he told the New Orleans Investment Conference last month, the success of a policy of infinite money depends on infinite commodity price suppression:

http://gata.org/node/19556

Amerman’s analysis is headlined “Funding Of U.S. Deficits By Monetary Creation Reaches 90% In Late 2019” and it’s posted at his internet site here:

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/F1DefFund1219.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Goldl Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Kevin Warsh is one of the candidates on a short list to be picked for UK Bank Governor. He was the one who admitted to gold swaps and market rigging for the gold market

(Giles/London’s Financial Times)

Ex-Fed governor who admitted gold swaps, market rigging is candidate for Bank of England governor

 Section: 

Former Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Kevin Warsh acknowledged to GATA in 2009 that the Fed has secret gold swap arrangements with foreign banks —

http://gata.org/node/7819

— and in an essay in The Wall Street Journal in 2016 admitted that the central bank manipulates markets:

http://gata.org/node/16702

* * *

New Bank of England Governor to Be Picked from Short List in Days

By Chris Giles
Financial Times
Sunday, December 15, 2019

Ministers are set to choose the next governor of the Bank of England in the coming days, in a move that should enable incumbent Mark Carney to leave the central bank on his scheduled departure date of January 31.

… 

The frontrunners to succeed Mr Carney are Minouche Shafik, London School of Economics director; Andrew Bailey, Financial Conduct Authority chief executive; and Kevin Warsh, a former top official at the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The Treasury stressed today that no final decision had yet been taken regarding Mr. Carney’s successor and there was no certainty of an announcement before Christmas. …

One latecomer to the race to succeed Mr Carney is the American Mr. Warsh, who wrote a well-received report on accountability and transparency at the BoE in 2014.

He was also on the short list to become Fed chairman in 2018 when Jay Powell secured the role.

But while at the Fed, Mr. Warsh had many critics of his monetary policy and regulatory stances, which included warning against quantitative easing in 2009 and the dangers of inflation in 2010.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/fb779c2e-1f5c-11ea-92da-f0c92e957a96

iii) Other physical stories:

Goldman Sachs report that as the Fed injects hundreds of billion of dollars we find that physical gold in disappears out of vaults

(zerohedge)

Hundreds Of Billions In Gold And Cash Are Quietly Disappearing

Something strange is going on: at the same time that central banks are injecting $100 billion each month in electronic money to crush volatility and ramp markets, a similar amount in hard physical currency and precious metals is literally disappearing.

Take gold: as we reported last week, it was none other than Goldman Sachs which recently laid out the case for gold, saying “gold’s strategic case still strong.” One reason for this is that the same central banks that are “full tilt” printing cash, they have also been splurging on gold, and as a result of “geopolitical uncertainty” there has been a record surge in gold demand by central banks themselves. As Goldman notes, “CBs globally have been buying gold at a very strong pace” and “2019 looks to be a record year for CB gold purchases with our target of 750 tonnes combined purchases likely to be met.”

But it was another, even more bizarre discovery by Goldman, that caught our eye: according to the bank there has been a whopping 1,200 tons, or $57 billion, of “unexplained” gold flows in just the 3 years.

 

As Goldman’s Mikhail Sprogis writes, “rising political risk – together with negative European rates – may be an important reason behind the large share of unaccounted gold investment over the past several years. Exhibit 17 shows cumulative unexplained gold demand based on World Gold Council (post 2010) and GFMS (pre 2010) balances data. It surged since 2016. Similar dynamics can be seen when we look at implied vaulted gold stocks built in the UK and Switzerland, which is calculated as implied cumulative total net imports minus transparent ETF gold stocks.”

And another remarkable observation, or rather lack thereof: “One can see that since the end of 2016 the implied build in non-transparent gold investment has been much larger than the build in visible gold ETFs (see Exhibit 18). This is consistent with reports that vault demand globally is surging. Political risks, in our view, help explain this because if an individual is trying to minimize the risks of sanctions or wealth taxes, then buying physical gold bars and storing them in a vault, where it is more difficult for governments to reach them, makes sense. Finally, this build can also reflect hedges by global high net worth individuals against tail economic and political risk scenarios in which they do not want to have any financial entity intermediating their gold positions due to the counterparty credit risk involved.”

In other words, Goldman points out that just over the past three years, there have been tens of billions in gold flows which have mysteriously and inexplicably disappeared from the official record, yet which are most certainly taking place behind the scenes as the world’s “top 1%” brace for a major shock.

But it’s not just gold that is disappearing: according to the WSJ, so is the world’s cold, hard cash.

Some Australians are burying it. The Swiss might be hiding it. The Germans are probably hoarding.

Indeed, while banks are printing more bank notes than ever and, these seem to be “disappearing off the face of the earth” and nobody knows where or why. or as the WSJ notes, “central banks don’t know where they have gone, or why, and are playing detective, trying to crack the same mystery.”

We do know one thing: of the $1.7 trillion in US dollars in cash circulation in 2018 (up from $1.2 trillion 5 years prior), the vast majority is offshore, where it is quickly and quietly disappears as the world’s second best physical store of value (after gold of course). A Fed economist, Ruth Judson, wrote in 2017 that about 60% of all U.S. currency, and about 75% of $100 bills, had left the country by the end of 2016 — for a total of about $900 billion in U.S. dollars kept overseas. Socking those bills away “provides some protection against economic turmoil, especially in countries with a record of instability in their own financial systems”, the paper said.

Take Australia: there the stock of Australian bank notes on issue relative to the size of the economy is near the highest it has been in 50 years, said Philip Lowe, governor of Australia’s central bank: “He showed off newly printed bank notes to diners at a recent event in Melbourne and estimated that about $2,000 in printed bills exists for every Australian.” And just to inspire confidence in his own job, he added: “I, for one, don’t have anywhere near that amount” on hand. In a few years, he will wish he did.

To be sure, there is the criminal element: as anyone who has watched a documentary on Pablo Escobar knows the Colombian drug kingpin buried tens of billions in the ground for “safe keeping” (in fact, as “The Accountant’s Story” writes, “Pablo was earning so much that each year we would write off 10% of the money, or about $2.1 billion, because the rats would eat it in storage or it would be damaged by water or lost“). As such, dollar bills are often vital grease for criminal gangs and tax cheats.

Physical cash is also popular with preppers and “collectors” who worry about a future collapse of the financial system.

But these two groups are far too small to explain the wholesale loss of cash as central bankers scramble to “follow the money” and glean how society’s saving and spending patterns change in a time of zero and negative interest rates. As the WSJ notes, bankers aren’t just hunting down cash to satisfy their own curiosity. If central banks don’t know how much cash is out there, they could print too much currency and risk inflation.

Then there are bizarre incidents such as these:

Construction workers recently dug up an estimated $140,000 buried in packages at a site on Australia’s Gold Coast, prompting a police search to find the trove’s owner.

In September, a court in Germany ruled on a case brought by a man who stuffed more than 500,000 euros in a faulty boiler only to see it incinerated when a friend made a fix on a cold day while he was on vacation. The man sued his friend for the value of the lost bank notes plus interest. He lost.

“People hide their money everywhere,” said Sven Bertelmann, head of the Bundesbank’s National Analysis Centre in Mainz, Germany. Sometimes bank notes are buried in the garden, where they start decomposing, or hidden in attics, where they are used by mice for building nests. “It happens again and again that people keep money in an envelope and then they shred it by mistake,” Mr. Bertelmann said. “We pick up the bank notes with tweezers and then start to put them together, like a jigsaw puzzle.”

Few are as perplexed by the fate of the missing cash as the German central bank: according to the Bundesbank more than 150 billion euros are being hoarded in Germany.

This has led the European Central Bank, and others, to ask the public for help.

“Everyone says that they are not hoarding cash but the money is clearly somewhere,” said Henk Esselink, head of the issue and circulation section in the ECB’s currency management division.

Some stunning facts: Australia’s central bank says its best guess is that only around a quarter of the bank notes in circulation are used for everyday transactions. Up to 8% of cash is used in the shadow economy—tax avoidance or illegal payments—while as much as 10% could have been lost. That is $7.6 billion Australian dollars ($5.2 billion) missing at the beach or in couch cushions…Or simply lost in a “boating accident” to avoid the taxman until the rainy days arrive.

The biggest use of cash is as a store of wealth “in safes, under beds and at the back of cupboards, both here in Australia and elsewhere around the world,” Mr. Lowe, the RBA governor, said.

Officials at the Swiss National Bank came up with another theory: hoarded bank notes should wear out less because they aren’t being used for everyday transactions. Demand for high-denomination bank notes tends to rise when interest rates are low, households feel distrustful of the banking system or people want to make transactions anonymously.

Sure enough, SNB officials found that hoarding of Swiss francs jumped around the year 2000, likely motivated by fear of the Y2K bug infecting computer systems, the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the September 11 terrorist attacks and introduction of the euro. The financial crisis that began in 2007 encouraged people to stash even more.

Meanwhile, with a financial crisis looming – and getting closer by the day – for some countries, such as New Zealand, making money disappear is becoming a national pastime.

 

Christian Hawkesby, of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, wonders where all the cash has gone.

As the WSJ concludes, around a third of New Zealand’s new bank notes headed overseas in 2017, up from 6% four years earlier. That happened around the time that tourism overtook dairy as the country’s main export money-spinner, leading officials to speculate on the role played by currency exchanges, especially in Asia.

The trail mostly ran cold after that. The bank could only identify the whereabouts of around 25% of New Zealand’s cash. The rest, of about 75%, has disappeared.

“Our sense is that we’re in the same boat as a lot of other central banks out there,” said Christian Hawkesby, assistant governor at the RBNZ. “We can’t fully explain why holdings of cash are rising and where they are going.”

Well, Christian, the answer to where all that cash is going is simple and is shown on the image below…

 

Unfortunate boating accident.

END

(courtesy of J Johnson)

Triple Witch Week, Currency Rollovers, and the Precious Metals Options Board!

Posted December 16th, 2019 at 9:46 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

      Gold was higher just a few minutes ago as we watched the usual de-excitement being added to the trade before the Comex Open with Gold now up only 30 cents at $1,481.50 after it hit $1,483.20 with the low not that far away at $1,477.40, making this a tight $5.80 trading range. Silver is leading at present with its trade at $17.075 up 6.3 cents after hitting $17.140 with the low at $16.955. The December US Dollar, which ends today to allow the March contract to lead us to the next disaster in print, is now trading at 97.005, down 16.6 points after dipping to 96.930 with the high up at 97.150. All of this was done before 5 am PST, the Comex open, the London close, and after a weekend of bad press at the campaign gatherings for any lifelong members still running for office.

      In Venezuela, Gold now has a value of 14,796.48 proving a gain of 38.95 Bolivar since Friday morning with Silver at 170.537 showing a 0.050 Bolivar loss. In Argentina, the Peso has Gold valued at 88,508.22 giving those that hold a 145.56 A-Peso gain with Silver at 1,020.35 Peso’s showing a slight drop of 1.61 in value. The Turkish Lira has Gold’s value pegged at 8,666.75 giving the holder a 96.24 T-Lira gain with Silver at 99.8918 Lira, proving a gain of 0.8321 in T-Lira value.

      The December Silver Delivery requests now show a demand count of 611 fully paid for contracts waiting for physicals, or papers that go to London via the EFP’s, or some sort of Algo trick that uses the delivery contract to push the prices lower with one or two pieces of fake delivery demands, proving a reduction of 24 from Friday’s count. Last week’s final day of activity showed 23 contracts traded, closely equaling the drop in demand. This morning’s activity shows a Volume of 12 up on the board with a high/low/last trade at $16.98 proving all these purchases were done at one price with a bid and ask price spread of a penny between $16.995 and $17.005 with quantities that will more than double the Volume posted already. Hello there Mr. Resolute Buyer, is it you that is waiting for 3,055,000 Ounces of real Silver?

      The Total Paper Count called “Open Interest” in Silver now stands at 203,933 Overnighters proving a 503 count drop from Friday morning and again, as the prices moved higher proving the point that without all these additional pieces of paper being added into the mix over the past 4 years, prices would have already been substantially higher.

      Silvers Options Board still has some interesting points to look over. The total count for January’s Options is now at 18,858 purchased Calls as of Friday’s close, showing the overall count increased 4,042 from our last November 11th count. From this total we were able to prove 3,084 more purchases were made, at and below the $18 strike, making this new total 6,609, with 1,588 of these purchases, at and below $17 making that total 1,784 (a big gain over the months’ time). In short, most of the Call Option purchases that were made over the past month, is within a dollar range of the current market price. Is this part of how they stymie the trade?

      February’s Silver overall “Call” count now stands at 10,814 purchases proving a 4,805-count gain. Inside this addition, 2,865 more Calls were purchased at or below the $18 strike making the new overall total 4,276. From this count we were able to prove that an additional 1,112 more Calls were bought at and under the $17 Strike bringing that total to 1,375 purchased Calls. Once again, another huge gain at the current price of the Futures.

     March Silver’s Call Option count gained 4,728, making its new total 25,850. Inside this number we were able to show 1,142 more purchases at and below the $18 Strike with 190 of those, at and below the $17 strike. April’s trade also increased with the overall count now at 2,488, proving an increase of 1,879 overall with 142 of these at and below $18 with 13 of the 142, at and below the $17 Strike Price.

      Also, of note this is the Triple Witch Week. Today we roll out of the currencies, then the debt instruments get milked slowly the rest of the month, with Thursday’s Option expiration for the paper markets, then the settling out the Futures in S&P/Dow/Nasdaq/ and Single Stock Futures. We also have the tariffs being applied to Chinese products and another 100 billion in Repos! Yup every reason in the world to hold Silver and Gold is right here.

     Enjoy the day, and keep the attitudes positive no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0001/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0000   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 16.72 POINTS OR 0.56%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 179.67 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 70.75 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 95.99/Euro RISES TO 1.1143

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 10944/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.08 and Brent: 65.33

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.30%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.29% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.59: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.35

3k Gold at $14778.50 silver at: 17.03   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 19/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.65

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.44 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9826 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0949 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.30%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.85% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.27%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8457..GETTY DANGEROUSLY LOW

 

Global Markets Hit All Time High As Traders Brace For “Phase Two” Optimism

This is where we stand as we enter Monday morning:

  • European markets are firmer this morning, though the FTSE 100 significantly outperforms on a second-wave of UK election optimism.
  • China State Council stated it will continue to suspend additional tariffs on US vehicles and auto parts due to the Phase One deal.
  • China sources cited by CNBC’s Yoon note that the USD 40-50bln target on agricultural purchases is a “best case target”.
  • Boeing (BA) is mulling cutting or stopping its 737 MAX production, via WSJ – Co. shares are down 2% pre-market
  • USD remains subdued although Sterling and Euro were dented by the latest poor PMIs.

Now that “Phase one” of the US-China deal is in the history books, traders around the world are bracing for a full year of “Phase Two” optimism in continuation of the only thing that matters since the spring of 2018 (that, and central banks cutting like there’s a global crisis, of course). And after US cash markets hit a new all time high on Friday, world stock markets rudhes to catch up with the US on Monday, trading at fresh all time highs in what was another “sea of green” day.

Whether it was looking ahead to Phase Two optimism, or simply relishing the (non) deal that was China’s ridiculous promise to double US ag imports, Wall Street was quick to try and shape narratives as one of buying the rumor and then buying the news as well:

We may have reached the point of ‘peak tariffs’ and this deal could be the start of a series of phased rollbacks, which could unlock further upside for equity markets, driven by an improvement in business confidence and a recovery in investment,” said Mark Haefele, CIO of UBS Global Wealth Management in a note to clients. We may have… but we haven’t, because as Morgan Stanley explained most supply chains are already in process of being moved while the “deal” will hardly inspire confidence among companies to spend more on CapEx.

For now, however, the optimism is working: European shares stormed out of the gate, and the pan-European STOXX 600 index was up by 1.1% hitting a new record high. Germany’s DAX rose as much as 0.5%, despite weakness in the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index which underperformed the broader gauge. German auto stocks fell after China’s ambassador to Germany threatened retaliation if Germany excludes Huawei Technologies Co. as a supplier of 5G wireless equipment. Auto-parts stocks such as Valeo and Hella also underperformed after Morgan Stanley cut both stocks along with Schaeffler to underweight, saying that suppliers have failed to fully understand the size of structural changes ahead, which makes it tough to justify their re-rating against OEMs.

European markets also ignored the latest disappointing PMI print, indicating that Europe remains stuck in a manufacturing recession: German private sector activity shrank for the fourth month running in December as a downturn in manufacturing offset services sector growth in Europe’s largest economy. Across the boarder, French businesses grew at a steady pace in December despite a nationwide strike against pension reform, although activity in the manufacturing sector came unexpectedly close to stagnating. Overall, the Eurozone composite PMI was unchanged at 50.6, modestly missing the expectation of a rebound to 50.7, driven by continued manufacturing weakness which shrank from 46.9 to 45.9, well below the 46.9 expectation, while the Services PMI rose modestly from 51.9, to 52.4.

The weakness was largely due to another decline in both German and French mfg PMIs, both of which dropped, with the former now in contraction since March and the latter just one pension strike away from a sub-50 print.

Earlier in Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan to its highest level since April 18. It was last up 0.13%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 led the way as it jumped 1.63%, while shares in Taiwan added 0.22%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 succumbed to some profit-taking, falling 0.29% after surging 2.55% to a 14-month closing high on Friday.

While everyone was busy ignoring the latest European economic data, markets were positively giddy at the all too credible rebound in Chinese data unveiled late on Sunday night which saw most indicators post a sharp and orchestrated rebound.

Chinese investors initially had a more tepid reaction to the trade news, with the blue-chip CSI300 index struggling to rise further after trade hopes fanned a near 2% rise on Friday. But after a lackluster morning session, the CSI300 index turned higher in the afternoon and was last up 0.3%, helped by the latest industrial output and retail sales data.

And so, thanks to China’s latest data dump, positive sentiment helped push MSCI’s All Country World Index up 0.15%, after hitting an all-time high on Friday when the trade deal was agreed.

Looking at the latest trade development, on Sunday, China State Council stated it will continue to suspend additional tariffs on US vehicles and auto parts due to the Phase One deal, whilst also suspending the additional 5-10% tariffs on some US goods planned to take effect on December 15th, according to CNBC’s Yoon. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry said that more trade information will be released in due course and working-level officials from both sides remain in contact.

China sources cited by CNBC’s Yoon note that the USD 40-50bln target on agricultural purchases is a “best case target”, and that the US would likely allow ‘best endeavor’ purchases; adds that general feeling on tariff rollback is an issue of linguistics. Additionally CNBC’s Yoon adds, no Chinese confirmation regarding the hard targets for US agricultural purchases; although, China is likely to agree but cannot acknowledge this publicly due to a possible backlash.

In addition to the trade deal, markets were excited by the apparent end of the Brexit drama, if only for the time being. Ryan Felsman, senior economist at CommSec in Sydney, said the trade deal and the receding risk of a disorderly Brexit after the British election produced a strong Conservative majority provided support for sentiment in Australia. A lower-than-expected Australian budget surplus due to a sluggish economy has also “built expectations by markets for further easing from the Reserve Bank (of Australia),” he said. He added that investors wanted more details and the reduction in U.S. tariffs may have disappointed some looking for more aggressive action.

“Certainly there were expectations perhaps that the rollback would be more significant than just 50%.”

In the US, S&P futures were back to record highs hit last week. U.S. shares struck a cautious note on Friday, paring initial gains to end barely higher as weary investors awaited signs of a concrete deal.

However, the news of a deal was still enough to send the S&P 500 to a record closing high of 3,168.8, up just 0.01%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.2% to end at 8,734.88, also a record, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.01% to 28,135.38.

In rates, U.S. Treasury yields moved modestly higher on Monday, after the sharp reversal on Friday, reflecting the more positive mood. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to 1.8452% compared with their U.S. close of 1.821% on Friday, and the two-year yield touched 1.6304% compared with a U.S. close of 1.604%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped and the euro held gains after data showed the euro-area economy is still struggling. EURUSD touched 1.1151 versus the dollar before paring gains after a slew of European PMIs. Treasuries halted their advance from Friday, while euro-area bonds were mostly higher. As noted above the latest Eurozone composite PMI stayed at 50.6 in December, slightly lower than the forecast of 50.7. The reading signals fourth-quarter output will be the weakest since the region exited a double-dip recession in the second half of 2013.

Sterling pared Asia session gains on profit taking and after a flash indicator for all business activity dropped to the lowest since the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum; manufacturing activity slipped to 47.4, a sharper downturn than the 49.2 reading predicted by economists.

In commodities, oil prices which had risen on Friday following the deal, climbed further on Monday. Brent crude rose 0.1% to $65.28 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.05% at $60.11 per barrel. Spot gold prices were down 0.06% at $1,474.64 per ounce.

Looking at today’s US calendar we get the November Markit PMI data, December Empire State manufacturing survey, NAHB housing market index, October net long-term TIC flows, total net TIC flows.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,181.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1% to 416.15
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 168.88
  • MXAPJ up 0.06% to 542.89
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 23,952.35
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,736.87
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 27,508.09
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 2,984.39
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 40,950.83
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.6% to 6,849.71
  • Kospi down 0.1% to 2,168.15
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.304%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1133
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 20.4 bps to 1.09%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.406%
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $65.33/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,477.23
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 97.08

Top Overnight News

  • China’s economy showed signs of stabilizing and regaining growth momentum in November; industrial output rose 6.2% from a year earlier, versus a median estimate of 5.0%. Retail sales expanded 8.0%, compared to a projected 7.6% increase. Fixed-asset investment was unchanged at 5.2% in the first eleven months, the same as forecast
  • President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that Turkey could shut down two of the most critical NATO installations on its territory if the U.S. imposes sanctions over its purchase of an advanced Russian missile-defense system
  • Boris Johnson will appoint top ministers to his cabinet on Monday as he pushes ahead with Brexit, emboldened by the historic majority he won in last week’s British general election
  • China’s economy showed signs of stabilizing and regaining growth momentum in November, adding to the good news for the nation’s outlook after a preliminary trade deal with the U.S. was reached last week. China steps up talks with U.S. on opening its companies’ books
  • China’s ambassador to Germany threatened Berlin with retaliation if it excludes Huawei Technologies Co. as a supplier of 5G wireless equipment, citing the millions of vehicles German carmakers sell in China
  • Australia’s Treasury lowered its forecast surplus for the 12 months through June 2020 to A$5 billion ($3.4 billion) from April’s budget estimate of A$7.1 billion as it scaled back estimated tax revenues, according to the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook released in Canberra Monday. It also predicted narrower surpluses for the following three fiscal years
  • Oil retreated from a three-month high as optimism the U.S.-China trade deal will spur demand for crude gave way to caution due to the agreement’s limited nature and lack of detail
  • Hong Kong’s demonstrators clashed with police late Sunday as Chief Executive Carrie Lam visited Beijing where she’s expected to update Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior officials on the violent protests that have gripped the city for the past six months. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang gives Hong Kong leader fresh boost after protests

Asian equity markets traded mixed following relatively light newsflow over the weekend and last Friday’s flat performance on Wall St. where the major indices consolidated near record levels after the confirmation of a US-China Phase One deal which officials plan to sign in early January, although some noted the deal was only limited and questions arose over the feasibility of China committing to as much as USD 50bln of US agriculture goods. ASX 200 (+1.6%) was lifted by outperformance in defensives and the top-weighted financials sector with sentiment buoyed after the world’s 2 largest economies averted the December 15th tariffs, while Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was subdued by the recent pullback in USD/JPY and as the latest Japanese Manufacturing PMI data remained in contraction territory. Hang Seng (-0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were constrained despite the phase one agreement confirmation and better than expected Chinese data in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales both topped estimates, as the stats bureau stated the economy still faces relatively big downward pressure and amid expectations for a reduced growth target for next year, while the mood in Hong Kong was also soured by a rise money market rates (Overnight HIBOR +57bps) and the resumption of violent protests over the weekend. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with prices hampered by last week’s resistance levels and with demand also subdued due to the absence of the BoJ in the market today.

Top Asian News

  • Top Turkish Bankers Say They Were Fired on Orders of Regulators
  • India Protests Spread as Anger Against Citizenship Law Grows
  • Masayoshi Son’s Bankers Are Worried About Their Favorite Client
  • Philippine Stocks Sink to Two-Month Low as Utilities Retreat

European equities kick-start the week on the front foot [Eurostoxx 50 +0.7%] following on from a relatively mixed APAC session, with traders citing an overall improvement in the trade environment as a reason for the advances.  Cash Stoxx 600 (+1.1%) managed to notch intraday record highs, albeit the FTSE 100 (+2.1%) stands as the marked outperformer amid further post-election tailwinds on large-cap stocks, miners benefitting from rising copper prices and exporters taking advantage of a declining Sterling – Standard Chartered (+3.3%), RBS (+3.2%), Barclays (+3.5%), Glencore (+4.0%), BHP (+3.2%), Rio Tinto (+2.9%) and Antofagasta (+2.7%). DAX and other core European indices stalled gains amid disappointing December Flash PMIs. Sectors opened modestly in positive territory but have since gained traction, with cyclical Materials and Financials outperforming on the back of FTSE 100 gainers. In terms of other individual movers, Novartis (unch) opened lower after the Co. stated it will be dropping development of its asthma drug amid a string of disappointing trials. Meanwhile, Kerry Group (-3.5%) shares fell to the foot of the pan-European index after losing a USD 26bln deal to International Flavours and Fragrances for US-listed DuPont’s nutrition division (+1.9% pre-market). Last but not least, Sports Direct (+20%) soared on the back of a profit jump with group revenue increasing 14% YY which comes amid performance woes after the Co. acquired the troubled House of Fraser.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Economy Ends 2019 Still Struggling as Momentum Stalls
  • Factory Woe Puts U.K. Economy on Brink of Contraction, PMI Shows
  • German Factory Slump Deepens Again as Recovery Seems Elusive
  • U.K. Rainmakers Eye Dealmaking Return Post Tory Election Win

In FX, Sterling’s post-UK election 2nd coming was already fading after a fleeting foray above 1.3400 vs the Dollar and test of resistance around the psychological 0.8300 level against the single currency when the preliminary PMIs for December confounded expectations for some improvement and missed consensus by quite a distance, especially in the manufacturing sector. Cable duly retreated towards 1.3325 and the cross rebounded to circa 0.8350 even though the earlier Eurozone flash surveys were also disappointing, and Germany’s manufacturing headline in particular. However, Eur/Usd remains depressed within a 1.1123-50 range and may struggle to pull away from decent option expiries between 1.1120-25 and 1.1100-10 (1.2 bn clips) rather than challenging slightly larger interest at 1.1150 (1.3 bn).

  • NZD/CAD/AUD – All firmer vs their US counterpart that continues to flounder (DXY anchored around 97.000), with the Kiwi keeping tabs on the 0.6600 handle, Aussie hovering just under 0.6900 and Loonie pivoting 1.3150 in wake of some upbeat Chinese data overnight (ip and retail sales) and further reserved reflection on US-China trade deal Phase 1. Nzd/Usd and Aud/Usd have both regrouped after losing some ground on independent impulses via growth forecast downgrades from the NZIER and government respectively, while the former also took note of Westpac rolling its RBNZ rate cut prediction to August next year from February.
  • NOK/SEK – The Scandi Crowns are both holding firm lines ahead of this week’s Norges Bank and Riksbank policy meetings, but Eur/Nok’s retreat is more technical after breaching the 100 DMA (10.0385) compared to Eur/Sek’s reversal through 10.4300 in anticipation of a 25 bp repo rate hike on Thursday.
  • CHF/JPY – The safe-haven Franc and Yen are narrowly mixed against the Buck, with Usd/Chf nearer the bottom of a 0.9825-45 band in contrast to Usd/Jpy hovering just below 109.50 compared to 109.25 at one stage and flanked by expiries between 109.00-05 and 109.50 in 1bn.

In commodities, little to report on the commodities front – with WTI and Brent futures largely unchanged on the day, albeit in positive territory after a relatively flat APAC session. WTI futures trade on either side of USD 60/bbl whilst its Brent counterpart topped USD 65/bbl in recent trade with little by way of fresh fundamental catalysts, and with participants somewhat cautious of the US-China Phase One deal amid a lack of details and a paucity on China’s commitments. Elsewhere, gold prices remain choppy within a tight USD 5/oz range thus far, as traders and investors await further Phase One details. Copper meanwhile has resumed its upwards trajectory with risk-sentiment a cited factor, although upside may be more due a receding USD and above-forecast China industrial production and retail sales. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures fell in excess of 1.5% after data showed weekly utilisation rates at 163 mills across China slumped almost 66 – thus casting fresh doubts on demand for the base metal.

US Event Calendar

 

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 4, prior 2.9
  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 52
    • Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.6, prior 52.6
    • Markit US Services PMI, est. 52, prior 51.6
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 70, prior 70
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $49.5b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This is the last full week of the year and there are still a number of interesting events/data points to get through before the soporific Xmas week. I’m starting it a bit tired as for the second night in a row I fell asleep trying to finish “The Irishman” – the new Scorsese/De Niro et al film with de-ageing technology used. It’s very very good but 3hr 30mins is a little tough to watch in one (or even two) sitting(s) after a day running after atrociously behaved children. We’ll be trying to finish tonight.

As for this week, today’s global flash PMIs stand out, along with the German IFO (Wednesday) and the BoE/BoJ meetings (Thursday). We don’t often mention the Swedish central bank decision as a main highlight but on Thursday it’s expected that the Riksbank will end Sweden’s five year experiment with negative rates and take them back to zero even though they haven’t met their inflation target. As concerns over the side effects of negative rates rise around the world, especially in Europe, a lot of attention will be placed on how the Swedish economy and banking system deals with this in the months ahead.

More on the week ahead below but after a lot of drama we finally got a Phase One trade deal between the US and China, confirmed by both sides on Friday. The legal work, full details and signing (probably in January) is still to come but it appears that agreement has been made. The immediate consequence is that the tariffs scheduled to have come into effect yesterday have now been suspended. Meanwhile, tariffs on $120bn of Chinese imports by the US will be halved from 15% to 7.5%, although 25% on a remaining $250bn worth will remain, and the fact sheet released by the US Trade Representative’s office said that China has committed “to import various U.S. goods and services over the next two years in a total amount that exceeds China’s annual level of imports for those goods and services in 2017 by no less than $200 billion.” Looking forward, President Trump tweeted that discussions on the Phase Two deal would begin “immediately”, as opposed to after next year’s presidential election. There will clearly be relief that it looks like a deal has been done but there are fewer tariff rollbacks than some had thought likely and Mr Trump’s comments suggest phase two will be a live issue straight away. My base case was that this would wait until after next November’s election assuming he won. So it will be very interesting as to how much Trump keeps the negative China rhetoric alive in 2020 after the deal is eventually signed.

Staying with politics and as an additional word on the U.K. election result from the end of last week, I wonder if it marks a new chapter in populism. The victorious Conservative Party is traditionally a party of the better off with the Labour Party the party of the poorer and working class communities. The problem is that the working class is generally in favour of Brexit and the Conservatives ruthlessly exploited this and they subsequently voted for them in waves in areas that haven’t for a century in some cases. To maintain this support the Tories will have to shape policy to help those left behind by globalisation (mostly in the north of the country) and by definition reduce inequality. If you want to see a great graph look at the FT today where they show a scatter of the percentage of blue collar jobs in a constituency against the vote swing in this election in favour of the Tories. There was a big correlation. Although politics isn’t often rational, it would make perfect sense if this election heralded a spending bias towards the poorer parts of the U.K. that voted for Brexit. In terms of the read through to other countries, to arrest the rise of populism we’ve always thought mainstream parties will adopt more populist policies aimed at the so-called left behinds. No-one has done this better in terms of winning an election than Mr Trump in the US and Boris Johnson in the U.K. The confusing thing about the Trump presidency is that his tax cuts were biased towards the rich which is probably why the likes of Warren and Sanders remain in the Presidential race and populism is still alive there. As we said on Friday though, the U.K. election result may at the margin make Democratic voters conclude that a lurch too far to the left is dangerous in Anglo-Saxon countries. We will see. Nevertheless the concluding remark is that the U.K results show that populism is far from dead – it’s just that mainstream parties can morph into populist parties if the will is there. To me it seems that European mainstream parties have so far struggled with this. I wonder if lessons will be taken from this on the continent.

Overnight, we’ve seen a number of data releases from China that have surprised to the upside, something that will further boost sentiment after the reaching of a Phase One agreement with the US. November retail sales were up +8.0% yoy (vs. +7.6% expected), while industrial production was up +6.2% yoy (vs. +5.0% expected). That said, fixed-asset investment over the Jan-Nov period was only up +5.2% yoy, the joint weakest since at least 1998 where data became more readily available. Equity markets in Asia are treading water this morning though, with the Nikkei (+0.03%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.06%) and the Kospi (-0.05%) seeing little movement in either direction, though the Hang Seng is down -0.37%. S&P 500 futures are up +0.28% following another record high for the index on Friday.

In terms of a fuller rundown of the week ahead, for today’s PMIs, we’ll see manufacturing, services and composite PMI data for France, Germany, the Euro Area, UK and the US. So quite a collection to watch for, especially as the market expectation is that the global economy is steadily turning after recently bottoming out. In November, the PMIs showed some sign of this in the Euro Area with a 50.6 reading for the composite PMI, but which included both Germany (49.4) and Italy (49.6) in contractionary territory led by manufacturing.

With the Fed and the ECB having announced their policy decisions in the week just gone, attention will turn to central banks elsewhere over the week ahead. The major action takes place on Thursday, with the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Riksbank, the Banco de Mexico and Bank Indonesia all announcing policy decisions that day. As we said at the top the Riksbank might be the most interesting longer-term as they are expected to end a 5-year dalliance with negative rates. The rest of the world will be watching to see if the sky falls in or whether this helps persuade people that negative rates are part of the problem. My guess is the latter when the history books are written.

In terms of central bank speakers next week, there’s a conference being held at the ECB on Wednesday in honour of Benoît Cœuré, whose 8-year tenure on the ECB Executive Board concludes at the end of the month. Cœuré himself, along with ECB President Lagarde and the Fed’s Brainard will all be making remarks there. In the US, we’ll also hear tomorrow from New York Fed President Williams, Boston Fed President Rosengren, and Dallas Fed President Kaplan. Chicago Fed President Evans will also be speaking on Wednesday.

Staying with Europe, Wednesday sees the publication of the latest Ifo survey from Germany. Last month, the business climate indicator rose to its highest level since July, so it’ll be interesting to see if recent momentum is sustained, with the consensus looking for a modest increase to 95.5. Separately, Wednesday also sees the final release of the CPI and core CPI readings for the Euro Area in November, and on Friday there’ll be the advance December reading of the European Commission’s consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area.

From the US, we also have a number of key readings out this week. Alongside the PMIs, Tuesday sees the release of November’s industrial production figures, as well as housing starts and building permits data. Last month, building permits rose to their highest level since May 2007, so it’ll be interesting to see if this strength in the recent data is sustained. Friday sees the final Q3 US GDP reading where the component breakdown will influence Q4 thinking.

Recapping Friday and last week now. Global markets were buoyed by the combination of a Phase One deal between the US and China, along with signs of a resolution to the immediate Brexit impasse from the UK election. The S&P 500 ended the week up +0.73% (+0.01% Friday) at a new record high, while in Europe the STOXX 600 was up +1.15% (+1.09% Friday) at its highest level since April 2015. Bond yields ended the week slightly lower after a sizeable trading range, with 10yr Treasury yields down -1.4bps (-7.0bps Friday), and 10yr bund yields -0.3bps (-2.0bps Friday). The removal of downside risks to the global economy saw investors move into other risk assets, with brent crude up +1.29% (+1.59% Friday) last week, while the spread of BTPs over bunds narrowed by -8.9bps.

Meanwhile, UK assets rallied on Friday as it emerged the Conservatives had won an 80-seat majority at the general election. Sterling ended the week up +1.45% (+1.29% Friday) at $1.3331, its highest level since March, while against the euro it was up +0.94% (+1.39% Friday) at its highest level since July 2016. UK equities also outperformed, with the FTSE 100 up +1.57% (+1.10% Friday), while the more domestically-focused FTSE 250 index was up +2.75% (+3.44% Friday). Banks in particular rose following the result, with Friday seeing big share price moves for Lloyds Banking Group (+5.25%), Barclays (+6.18%) and RBS (+8.39%). The other major rises were seen from the companies that had been floated as targets for nationalisation by Labour. Centrica, parent of British Gas, was up +10.51% on Friday, its best day since November 2008, while BT Group was up +6.54%, its best since November 2018.

Finally, in terms of data on Friday, US retail sales were weaker than expected, with a +0.2% (vs. +0.5% expected) increase in November, although the previous month was revised up a tenth to +0.4%. The year-on-year figure fell to +2.9%, its lowest since June. In spite of the figures, Fed Vice Chair Clarida said on Fox Business that “the U.S. consumer’s never been in better shape in my professional career.” Elsewhere, New York Fed President Williams also sounded a positive note on the outlook, saying that “we’ve got the economy on a very strong footing, sustainable footing, for good growth next year.”

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.72 POINTS OR 0.56%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 179.67 POINTS OR 0.45%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 70.75 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.57%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0001 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0001 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0000 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

North Korea conducts another crucial test to bolster its “nuclear deterrence”

(zerohedge) 

North Korea Conducts “Another Crucial Test” At Missile Site To ‘Bolster Nuclear Deterrent’

North Korean state media reported Saturday morning that it had conducted “another crucial test” at a missile launch site at the country’s Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on Friday to beef up its nuclear deterrence against the West.

Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the test would support North Korea’s “reliable strategic nuclear deterrent,” though it wasn’t exactly clear what was actually tested.

“The research successes being registered by us in defense science one after another recently will be applied to further bolstering up the reliable strategic nuclear deterrent of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” a spokesman for North Korea’s Academy of Defense Science said in a statement.

Testing at the Sohae site is almost becoming a weekly occurrence. Last Saturday, we reported that a “very important” test occurred at the site, likely an engine test, in preparation for an upcoming launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

North Korea warned earlier this month that it would send Washington a “Christmas gift,” likely in the form of a new ICBM launch.

Several weeks after North Korea resumed its “dotard” insults at President Trump and their ambassador to the UN said further denuclearization talks are no longer needed, North Korea’s ambassador to the UN said last weekend, denuclearization was off the table in negotiations with the US.

North Korea has warned that it could take a radical “new path” amid stalled talks with the US.

Meetings are expected Sunday between top US envoy for North Korea and South Korean officials.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have jumped since November, as recent tests and a war of words have broken out between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, inciting fears that geopolitical uncertainty in the region could surge in 2020.

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China

One of the big news items of the day:  China announces a huge banking default:  state owned giant ban: TeeWoo.  A harbinger of things to come as we now witness for the first time failures of state owned banks.

(zerohedge)

China’s “Moment Of Reckoning” Arrives: $38BN State-Owned Giant Announces Largest Dollar Bond Default In Two Decades

Two weeks ago we previewed what we said would soon be a D-Day for China’s bond market, as a massive commodities trader and Global 500 state-owned enterprise was set for an “unprecedented” bond default.

As of last week, this historic default is now in the history books after Tewoo, the closely watched Chinese commodities trader, became the biggest dollar bond defaulter among the nation’s state-owned companies in two decades, in what Bloomberg called “moment of reckoning” for Beijing as China struggles to contain credit risk in a weakening economy, as bond defaults hit an all time high and are set to keep rising in the coming years.

Last Wednesday, Tewoo Group announced results of its “unprecedented” debt restructuring, which saw a majority of its investors accepting heavy losses, and which according to rating agencies qualifies as an event of default. As a result of the default, until recently seen as virtually impossible for a state-owned company, investors’ perceptions are undergoing a dramatic U-turn about government-owned borrowers whose state-ownership had for years offered an ironclad sense of security.

No more: The fact that a state-owned enterprise such as Tewoo has now defaulted on repaying its dollar bonds in full, confirms that Beijing will no longer bail out troubled SOEs, let alone private firms, perhaps due to the strains imposed by the economy which while growing at just below 6%, is slowing the most in three decades. It also raises concerns over the Chinese province of Tianjin, where Tewoo is based, following a series of rating downgrades and financing difficulties suffered by some of the city’s state-run firms. The metropolis near Beijing also has the highest ratio of local government financing vehicle bonds to GDP in China.

As a reminder, Tewoo ranked 132 in 2018’s Fortune Global 500 list, higher than many other conglomerates including service carrier China Telecommunications Corp. and financial titan Citic Group Corp. It had an annual revenue of $66.6 billion, profits of about $122 million, assets worth $38.3 billion, and more than 17,000 employees as of 2017, according to Fortune’s website. Tewoo is owned by the Tianjin government and operates in a number of industries including infrastructure, logistics, mining, autos and ports, according to its website. It also has footprints in countries including the U.S., Germany, Japan and Singapore.

Putting last week’s “unprecedented” event in context, since the first SOE bond default emerged in China’s domestic market four years ago, 22 such firms have failed to make good on a combined 48.4 billion yuan ($6.9 billion) onshore bonds as of the end of October, according to Guosheng Securities. However, despite periodic scares such as late repayment, Chinese SOEs had yet to suffer any high-profile default in the dollar bond market since the collapse of Guangdong International Trust and Investment Corp. in 1998.

Tewoo is precisely that default.

Furthermore, Tewoo’s exchange offer, which has bondholders accepting a major haircut on their bonds, is seen as a road-map for resolving similar debt crises in the future as the prospect of more failures by state-backed firms looms. 2019 has already seen over 20 billion in SOE bond defaults, nearly triple 2018’s total and the highest on record.

Specifically, the former Fortune Global 500 company from the northern port city of Tianjin said dollar bond investors representing 57% of the the total $1.25 billion have agreed to be paid just 37 to 67 cents on the dollar, depending on the maturity of the bonds. Additionally, bondholders representing 22.6% of these bonds voted to exchange their debt for new bonds with sharply lower coupons to be issued by Tewoo’s offshore debt manager, a state asset manager from Tianjin.

“This is one form of default based on our definition,” said Moody’s analyst Ivan Chung, pointing out that the debt restructuring has resulted in losses for investors.

The distressed exchange offer which concluded hastily last week represents a “first of its kind” debt restructuring plan for the relatively immature Chinese bond market and for a state-run enterprise in the dollar bond market. It was rushed ahead of $300 million dollar bond maturity on Dec. 16, one of the four notes covered by Tewoo’s debt restructuring plan.

To be sure, the market was not surprised: late last month, Tianjin State-owned Capital Investment and Management, Tewoo’s offshore debt manager, said on an investor call that Tewoo is very likely to default on this paper. That explains why Tewoo’s bond prices were largely unchanged after the exchange offer.

Meanwhile, investors who turned down the company’s forced exchanges face even steeper losses; their dollar bonds will be grouped into a comprehensive debt plan involving Tewoo’s onshore debt, according to Tianjin State-owned Capital.

Tewoo said settlement of the debt restructuring offers are expected to be on or about Dec. 17.

As Bloomberg summarizes, “Tewoo’s failure in the dollar bond market, the biggest for a Chinese SOE since the collapse of Guangdong International Trust and Investment Corp. in 1998, is a sign that the worst economic slowdown in three decades is limiting Beijing’s capacity to bail out its weaker state firms. As a result, the authorities appear increasingly willing to use a more market-oriented approach to clean up the mess.”

“Tewoo’s default is a landmark case, and demonstrates a growing tolerance for defaults by distressed SOEs,” Cindy Huang, an S&P Global Ratings credit analyst said in a note.

Needless to say, Tewoo’s crisis comes as a wake-up call for investors, many of whom had expected to never incur losses in China’s offshore (dollar) bond market where until now, moral hazard had been the only game in town. Alas, that game is now changing.

“This is a poor outcome for investors that bought the bonds at par. That said, there is now some track record as to the severity of loss for an SOE-related entity,” said Charles Macgregor, head of Asia at Lucror Analytics. “Hopefully, these types of restructures will bring more discipline to the market and result in investors properly pricing for the apparent risk,” he added hopefully, although with developed nation central banks engaging in precisely the kind of moral hazard boosting activity that China is now desperately seeking to distance itself from, we doubt that any investors will learn any lessons, and if anything, creditors will only demand even bigger bailouts in the future.

* * *

What is perhaps just as concerning is that as we noted last month, the Tewoo default is a harbinger of the crisis facing China’s insolvent local governments themselves. Tianjin “is not an exception” and other local governments with deteriorating fiscal conditions might also see eroding support for their less competitive SOEs, S&P warned.

It all started with the bankruptcy of Bohai Steel Group in 2018 which triggered systemic risk in Tianjin’s financial market. The incident involved a large number of local companies and financial institutions, which recorded huge amounts of bad debt. Financial institutions became more conservative in their lending standards, and this resulted in liquidity issues for a number of Tianjin enterprises.

At the same time, Beijing’s deleveraging and capacity reduction reforms made it difficult for a traditionally highly-leveraged company like Tewoo to raise financing. The default in May 2018 by Hsin Chong Group Holdings Limited, a company controlled by Tewoo, showed further signs of financial problems at Tewoo Group.

While normally such a critical company as Tewoo would be quietly bailed out by either Beijing or the local province, investors told Bloomberg that the company’s excessive debt levels would limit Tianjin authorities’ ability to lend support to the city’s troubled firms. They were right, and in July, Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group postponed plans to sell a three-year dollar bond offering amid such concern.

Tewoo’s debt issues that had surfaced from its current crisis may be only the tip of the iceberg. Tianjin’s economic growth has slowed down sharply since the beginning of 2016. GDP growth dropped to 1.9% in the first quarter of 2018. Even as it started to rebound thereafter, the outlook is still pessimistic, with GDP growth in 2018 less than 4%, which ranked last in the country according to iFast.

On the other hand, according to a 2016 report released by ratings agency Moody’s, state-owned enterprises in Tianjin recorded an aggregate liability-to-fiscal revenue ratio of more than 600%, which was the highest in the country.

At the same time, as shown in Tianjin municipal government’s most recent three-year revenue and debt data, Tianjin government’s fiscal revenue has declined significantly since 2017. Fiscal revenue fell by close to RMB40 billion in 2017, while government borrowings rose rapidly. By the end of 2018, debt owed by the Tianjin government was almost double its fiscal revenue.

The bankruptcy of Bohai Steel, a Tianjin SOE, in 2018 may also be a sign that the Tianjin government has lost control over the local debt crisis. Other than Bohai Steel and Tewoo, there have been a number of state-owned companies in Tianjin that are fighting to stave off insolvencies, such as Tianjin Real Estate Group Co. Limited, which owes RMB200 billion in debt. From the above observations, we think that in the event of a default by Tewoo, the company is likely to go into bankruptcy reorganization in a similar way as Bohai Steel, which has brought in capital from the private sector for its corporate restructuring. But for bondholders, recovery of their investments may be difficult, and potential loss heavy.

With Tianjin failing – or simply unable to step up, in the aftermath of Tewoo’s debt restructuring which confirms that Beijing will no longer bail out even SOEs, investors’ skepticism about state support for such state-linked firms will collapse, and the default will have wide, and dire,  implications on how investors assess and price their bonds in the future, said Judy Kwok-Cheung, director of fixed-income research at Bank of Singapore. It will certainly have a chilling effect on demand for Chinese bond issuers as investors will actually have to perform due diligence to find out just what they are buying.

“Investors would be going back to basics in assessing credit risk in that the company’s stand-alone ability to repay is the first line of defense when it comes to non-repayment risk,” said Kwok-Cheung.

In short, “investors” would be reacquainted with a thing called “fundamentals.” The horror, the horror.

* * *

It gets worse: should Tewoo’s default spread to provincial-backed debt, an already ugly situation could quickly turn catastrophic as Tianjin has the highest debt burden among mega-cities and provinces in China according to S&P. Earlier this year, Fitch cut ratings on several government-related entities from the city, which is reliant on heavy industry and commodities trading. As a result of having the highest debt, Tianjin also has to slowest growth – Tianjin’s local economy grew by just 3.6% last year, the slowest in China; at the end of last year, Tianjin’s government had 407.9 billion yuan worth of debt outstanding, or about 22% of the size of its economy, said the Chinese credit risk assessor.

And just in case the Tewoo default isn’t troubling enough, Moody’s said that it expected the number of Chinese defaults to jump further in 2020 as economic growth sputters and the government attempts to rein in support to indebted companies. Specifically, Moody’s expects 40-50 new defaults in 2020, up from 35 this year, according to Ivan Chung, which will make next year another all time high.

“The regulators’ intention is to reduce moral hazard” while at the same time ensuring any defaults “won’t undermine socioeconomic stability or trigger systemic risks,” Chung said on Wednesday, who added that whereas state support may be available for companies engaged in social welfare projects, for those that are more commercial in nature, “government support may not be so forthcoming,” he said.

So what happens next?

Now that a Tewoo event of default is in the history books, the next question is what will bondholders of China’s other SOE’s – those who bought bonds on the assumption that China will always bail them out – do next? A flurry of aggressively selling may be just the catalyst that cracks the market if it emerges in the extremely illiquid days just before Christmas.

Gijsbert Groenewegen LLD

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Greece/Libya/Hafter/Turkey

This is getting to be a powder  keg.  On Friday we announced that Turkey is supporting the ailing Tripoli government. The USA is supporting Hafter and his Benghazi gang.  Greece has decided to support the Hafter/USA group against Turkey.  Turkey’s finances are extremely low and they can ill afford this conflict.

(zerohedge)

Greece To Help Tripoli ‘Block Turkish Ships’ As Libyan War Spills Into Mediterranean

The years-long war for post-Gaddafi Libya now threatens to spill over into the Mediterranean as Turkey and Greece line up on either side of the conflict. Each side is now threatening the others’ allied ships in southern waters after a controversial maritime deal expanded Turkish claims off Libya’s coast.

On Thursday Benghazi-based General Kalifa Haftar declared his Libyan National Army has begun its “final decisive battle” to wrest control of the capital of Tripoli from the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

“Zero hour has come for the broad and total assault expected by every free and honest Libyan,” Haftar said in a televised address, reports Al Jazeera. “Today, we announce the decisive battle and the advancement towards the heart of the capital to set it free… advance now our heroes.” Beginning eight months ago Haftar launched a siege of Tripoli, which has been stalled in recent months.

 

Drilling vessel Yavuz is escorted by a Turkish navy frigate in the Eastern Mediterranean off Cyprus, via Daily Sabah.

Turkey has been the closest military supporter to Tripoli’s GNA, even recently signing a controversial maritime agreement, after providing heavy weaponry to repel Haftar’s assault. Last summer the LNA even attacked Turkish naval ships, in what’s an ongoing declared war with any Turkish vessel or aircraft. This “proxy war” element is now threatening to involve Greece. 

Days ago Erdogan confirmed his country signed a bilateral memorandum, finalized on Nov. 27, which would allow Turkish forces to enter Libyan territory or waters at the request of the GNA authorities.

“With this new agreement between Turkey and Libya, we can hold joint exploration operations in these exclusive economic zones that we determined,” Erdogan said. The agreement established a continental shelf and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) boundary line of 18.6 nautical miles between the two countries.

 

Map via The New Arab

It’s being criticized as yet another attempt to unilaterally expand Turkish oil and gas exploration and drilling rights in the eastern Mediterranean at the expense of Cyprus, Greece, Israel, and Turkey. Cyprus and Greece in particular have charged Turkey with violation of their sovereign EEZs and with mounting illegal acts of aggression, a charge the EU has largely stood behind.

But now the ongoing Turkey-Greece-Cyprus energy exploration conflict has entered the Libyan arena, as the commander of Haftar’s LNA naval forces, Major General Faraj Mahdawi, has revealed an agreement with Greece that aims to block the sea lane linking Crete and the eastern sea borders of Libya to Turkish ships.

Beirut-based Al-Masdar News reports the following statements, citing Arabic media:

Major-General Faraj al-Mahdawi said in a statement to Al-Arabiya that “there is great coordination between Greece and Libya in order to monitor the movement of Turkish ships for oil or access to the western Libyan ports to deliver weapons to the militias, especially the Misurata port.”

Turkish and Greek media are reporting that the pro-Haftar navy chief has also threatened to “sink any Turkish research vessels” that arrive off Libya’s coast, in reference to oil and gas exploration.

Aron Lund@aronlund

After signing deals with its own puppet state in occupied northern Cyprus and with the pseudo-government in Libya’s Tripoli, Turkey declares that it owns half of the eastern Mediterranean. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/map-delineates-turkeys-maritime-frontiers-in-med-sea-149379 

View image on Twitter

“I have an order… as soon as the Turkish research vessels arrive, I will have a solution. I will sink them myself. I have this order from Haftar,” Gen. Mahdawi is reported to have said.

“I will sink your ships myself,” the pro-Haftar commander said.

Given Erdogan has recently made support for Tripoli a priority, and given it appears Greece stands ready to block Turkish vessels from entering sea lanes near Crete — not to mention Haftar’s standing order to sink any Turkish vessels that enter near Libya — it appears the next round of an internationalized Libya war is ready to explode in the southern Mediterranean.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/NATO

Turkey tells NATO to shove it as they threaten to suffer the critical military bases in Incirlik Turkey

(zeorhedge)

Turkey Gives NATO The Middle Finger, Threatens To Shutter Critical Military Bases Over Sanction Threats

French President Emmanuel Macron complained during the NATO summit in London earlier this month about Turkey’s decision to buy a Russian missile-defense system and its invasion of Syria, musing about how Turkey could justify its continued membership in the alliance if it counties to flout its interests at every turn.

These comments, only the latest round of complaints about Turkey’s behavior toward its Western NATO allies, inspired speculation about whether NATO could formally expel Turkey. But aside from whatever legal complications might lie in wait, we posit that there’s another more fundamental reason why NATO likely won’t be able to expel Turkey. Because Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would likely quit first.

That’s right: Although Trump and Erdogan have tried to maintain at least the veneer of a personally amicable relationship, and though Trump has at times defied his own senior NatSec officials to offer a major sop to Erdogan (like when Trump pulled US troops out and stepped aside to allow the Turkish invasion, the the horror of Europe), Erdogan’s increasingly tight relationship with Russia – a relationship built on defense and energy ties – is becoming impossible for many western leaders to countenance.

Congressional hawks like Lindsey Graham (for the Republicans) and Chris Van Hollen (on the Democratic side) have already successfully pushed Trump to “announce” more sanctions against Turkey via Twitter. And they might be able to finally push him to follow through, too.

In response to this and myriad other slights both perceived and real, Erdogan made it clear on Monday that he’s had about enough of this harassment from his supposed “allies” in the West. Because when it comes to Trump cards, Erdogan still has one to play.

According to Bloomberg, Erdogan warned that he could shutter two of the most important NATO bases in the world if more sanctions are imposed.

In the minds of US NatSec officials, Erdogan’s threat is an extremely low blow. An early-warning radar at Turkey’s Kurecik air base is a critical component of NATO’s early-warning defense system against ballistic missile attacks. And the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey is critical to tactical air strikes and drone attacks throughout the region.

“If it is necessary to shut it down, we would shut down Incirlik,” Erdogan told AHaber television on Sunday. “If it is necessary to shut it down, we would shut down Kurecik, too.”

[…]

“If they put measures such as sanctions in force, then we would respond based on reciprocity,” Erdogan said. “It is very important for both sides that the U.S. should not take irreparable steps in our relations.”

Additionally, Erdogan warned the US not to recognize the Turkish genocide of Armenians in the early part of the 20th century, an issue that has long been important for Erdogan.

Until now, the US and NATO military presence in Turkey has been held sacred, even as the relationship between the two countries became increasingly bitter over the past two years. Those aren’t the only two bases in Turkey: the US has for decades heavily leaned on Turkey as critical to its policing of the Middle East.

 

Bottom line: It’s Turkey’s party, and it can buy missiles from Russia if it wants to. After all, placating Russia is important for an energy importer like Turkey. Russian energy subsidies can be a huge economic boon for an economy – just look at Belarus.

Plus, now that Erdogan has cemented his control over the levers of power in Turkey, even if his decision to re-run the mayoral elections in Istanbul didn’t turn out quite as well as he had probably hoped.  He’s eager to establish Turkey as a regional power, and bending to the US on this would make him look week.

Of course, for the US, Erdogan’s demands present a difficult dilemma: The US and NATO need Turkey to host its bases, but they’re worried that, if the S-400 system becomes fully operational (expected in April), many worry the Russian system could be used to collect intelligence on the stealth capabilities of the F-5 fighter jet.

Now, will President Trump risk calling Erdogan’s bluff? That remains to be seen.

6.Global Issues

The diamond business is now facing a crisis as De Beers signals rough times ahead

(zerohedge)

Diamond Crisis Worsens As De Beers Signals Rough Times Ahead 

De Beers, the world’s largest diamond miner, has seen plunging profit margins as the diamond crisis deepens in 2019 and set to worsen in 2020.

We’ve been documenting the global diamond crisis that has unfolded in the last several several years.

De Beers has spent the back half of the year slashing diamond prices as global markets remained oversupplied into the holiday season, mostly reflecting demand woes for top markets in the US, Europe, and China.

Macroeconomic headwinds have primarily been the reason for waning diamond demand as a global trade recession appears to be nearing.

De Beers will mine one million carats less than previously thought in both 2020 and 2021, Bloomberg said, citing a recent investor deck. That equates to about 1% of the global diamond output and outlines how the world’s largest miner is slowing its expansion as the industry is plagued with oversupply and lackluster demand woes.

De Beers wholesales diamonds in ten sales per year in Botswana’s capital, Gaborone, and the buyers normally cannot challenge price and quantity. Buyers have become increasingly frustrated with the cost of rough diamonds sold by the company as prices of cut ones have plummeted.

To address oversupplied conditions, De Beers has lowered prices of rough stones, which has cut into profits.

Diamond sales between Jan. to Nov. were $1.2 billion lower than the same period in 2018.

De Beers, which frequently sets the price of diamonds to its clients, slashed prices by 5% last month in hopes to stimulate demand.

Glancing at a composite of spot diamond prices, the IDEX Diamond Index shows how oversupplied conditions have weighed down prices in the last 12 months.

A 5-year chart of the IDEX Diamond Index shows spot prices have remained in a downturn trajectory.

Several months ago, a diamond analyst in New York City said markets remained oversupplied, resulting in weak global sales.

“The current malaise in the market is due to oversupply,” said Paul Zimnisky, an independent global diamond industry analyst, who said diamond buyers had too much inventory.

With no end in sight in the global synchronized slowdown, it seems unlikely the consumer can revive the global diamond industry in 2020.

end
Is Corbyn’s defeat a wakeup call for Democrats and basically socialists from around the world
(Mish Shedlock)Mishtalk)

Corbyn’s Massive Defeat Is Big Wakeup Call For Democrats

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

It’s time for US democrats to reflect on the message UK voters gave Labour this week.

Proposed Wakeup Phone Call

“Hello Elizabeth. This is Jeremy, Jeremy Corbyn. About your radical plan to save America. I’ve been doing some reflecting. Guess what?”

Jeremy Corbyn Went Down in Flames

Jeremy Corbyn went down in flames this week in the biggest Labour defeat in 35 years.

The above proposed phone call will never happen because Corbyn Refuses to Admit He is the Reason for Labour’s Massive Defeat.

Corbyn will stand down as party leader in January. But he wants time to reflect on what happened.

Corbyn Already Sounds Like Hillary

Corbyn blamed Brexit. He blamed the media. He blamed disgusting politicians.

On the latter, he is of course correct. He just forgot to look in the mirror while making that statement.

He just forgot one thing. He forgot to blame Russia.

He will have plenty of time to reflect on things, then blame Russia.

Media vs Polls

The polls mostly got this correct. The media kept saying “too close to call”.

Flashback November 18: Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit

My Comment:

“This election is no longer primarily about Brexit, it’s primarily about Corbyn.”

Perhaps this is easier to see from afar. Perhaps it is simple willingness to dive into the polls. Either way, Corbyn’s unpopularity was of epic proportion, poll after poll after poll.

Why is it shocking news that people, when they finally got into the voting booth, voted against someone they could not stand?

Time for Reflection

Corbyn says “it’s time to reflect.”

Please, let’s do.

Since it’s time to reflect, please reflect on the above question in reference to Hillary and why she lost.

Let’s also reflect on Corbyn’s Radical Manifesto.

Labour’s Radical Plan Highlights

  1. Increase government spending by a massive £82.9bn a year, about 4pc of GDP, all paid for by rising taxes
  2. A £400bn “national transformation fund”, which would “add to the government’s debt” but isn’t in the headline figures.
  3. Nationalisation of rail, water, energy, bus, mail, and broadband companies
  4. Seizure of 10 percent of the shares in every big UK company and handing the shares to workers
  5. Raise the corporate tax rate to 26% from 19%
  6. An £11bn windfall tax on the oil and gas sector
  7. Free broadband internet for everyone
  8. Free shelter for the homeless
  9. Super-rich tax rate
  10. Tax on second homes
  11. Raise £8bn via a Financial Transactions Tax
  12. Higher inheritance tax
  13. Force landlords to sell homes to tenants at a “fair” price as determined by Labour

Democrats Take Note

I wrote about Corbyn’s radical manifesto on November 23 with this message: Jeremy Corbyn Goes for Broke With Last Desperate Act, US Democrats Take Note.

My Lead-In Comment “Labour’s manifesto is a final act of desperation. US democrats, especially Elizabeth Warren, should take note.”

Free Everything!

In the US Democratic debates, the candidates are still trying to outdo each other with free this, free that.

Warren is at the top of the list. Like Corbyn, she wants to nationalize everything possible and break up the rest. She wants free healthcare, free education, free shelter.

She also wants a wealth tax.

In the UK, voters did not believe Corbyn’s plan was remotely possible.

Ironically, Corbyn decided his 2017 plan was not radical enough. So he made it even more radical.

Labour Hijacked

The Washington Examiner explains How Jeremy Corbyn Hijacked the Labour Party

Corbyn was the underdog in the Labour party’s 2015 leadership race. He was a long-serving radical backbench MP known for his anti-Western foreign policy stances, competing against multiple well-qualified moderate Labour candidates. He maximized a change to voting rules and signed up thousands of far-left grassroots activists who would turn the formerly centrist Labour party of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown into an effective vehicle for his socialist ideals. He received a landslide of 59.5 percent of first preference votes. Building on his success, he created a far-left political movement named Momentum, which has been described as the ‘party within the party.’

News For You

Corbyn and Warren are two peas in the same radical-left plan.

Warren, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and AOC now attempt the same thing in the US.

If they succeed, they may well deliver the same result.

I wrote about this on December 5.

How to Re-Elect Trump in One Easy Lesson

Please consider How to Re-Elect Trump in One Easy Lesson

“Radical progressives are up in arms. Ironically, if Trump wins again, they will be the reason.”

Forget the Base

Why appeal to the radicals? Where are they going? I ask the same questions of Republicans and Democrats alike.

If given a choice between Biden or Bloomberg vs Trump, Progressives will vote for Biden or Bloomberg.

Q: Why?

A: Under no circumstances will they vote for Trump.

So how is Bloomberg a liability?

 

Independents might easily vote for Biden or Bloomberg. In contrast, they might not easily vote for Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.

In fact, Harris and Warren, darlings of the Progressives, might be the only people that Trump could beat.

These kinds of honest assessments get me in hot water.

Unqualified

Such analysis led me to labeling Kamala Harris as unqualified. My reason, which I explained, was that I did not believe she could win the election.

I immediately came under attack by the radical progressives on Twitter for days after I posted such a Tweet.

I am in another TweetStorm right now over why Corbyn lost.

Hint: Don’t try to speak rationally to radical leftists. They are hopelessly delusional.

Divided Political Parties

In the UK, the left splintered over Brexit. On top of it, Labour advanced a Marxist left wing program of “free stuff” just as Sanders and Warren do here.

Labour’s plan was so radical that not even its base believed the manifesto was possible.

In both the US and UK voting systems, it is suicidal not to unite. Yet, it is damn hard to unite around radical views or behind radical persons.

As much as voters dislike Trump, they disliked Hillary more.

Warren is probably not as disliked personally as Hillary, but her plan is as radical Marxist as Corbyn’s.

Warren may be the only candidate that Trump can beat, just as Hillary was the only person Trump could beat four years ago. Yet Warren is the darling of all the progressives hell bent on hijacking the party platform to the most radical agenda possible.

The winning path is to pick a candidate the moderates and independents will back. The core and the radicals are going nowhere.

A Phone Call That Won’t Happen

“Hello Elizabeth. This is Jeremy, Jeremy Corbyn. About your radical plan to save America. I’ve been doing some reflecting. Guess what?”

That phone call will never happen. Nor will Hillary nor Corbyn ever look in the mirror and blame themselves.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1132 UP .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.85 DOWN 0.074 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2485   DOWN   0.0052  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3059 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 16.72 POINTS OR 0.56% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 179.67 POINTS OR 0.65%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,57%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 179.67 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.72 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.57% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 70.75  POINTS OR 0.29%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1476.85

silver:$17.02-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.85% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.27 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.99 DOWN 19 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.38% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.42%//  UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,30 UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 78 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.28% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.58% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1142  UP     .0025 or 25 basis points

USA/Japan: 19.65 UP .335 OR YEN DOWN 34  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3324 UP .0057 POUND UP 19  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 16 basis points to 1.3149

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9938    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9927  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8488 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.89 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.30 UP 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.06 DOWN 11  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 165.61 OR 2.25%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 124.94 POINTS OR .94%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 72.64 POINTS 1.23%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 116.90 POINTS or 1.22%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 195.43 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 60.15 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.45 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    62.44  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.41 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 41 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.28 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  60.24//

 

 

BRENT :  65.33

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.88 PLUS 6 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.30  PLUS 5 BASIS PTS..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1144 ( UP 28   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.57 UP .261 (YEN DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.03 DOWN 14 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3332 UP 37  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8478

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.47   UP 0.37 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 37 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3160 UP 9 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9938  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9919 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.28%

 

The Dow closed UP 99.56 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 79.35 POINTS OR 0.91%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.39 CLOSED DOWN .24

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.899%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

VIXtermination & Short-Squeeze Spark Stock Surge But Bonds, Yuan Decouple

Trade deal, done (ish). UK Election, done. China data, rebounding. Quad-Witch, soon. Fed injecting cajillions in liquidity, check! It’s the Rick Astley market to year-end (maybe…)

Everything is awesome if we look at stocks, but bonds and yuan appear much less enthused at the path ahead…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese markets were higher overnight as they caught up with the US gains from Friday’s trade deal (notably the largest Chinese stocks underperformed)…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were all higher today (post-trade-deal), but UK’s FTSE 250 soared most…

Source: Bloomberg

Boeing weighed on Dow Industrials and FedEx dragged Dow Transports lower, but all the US majors ended the day higher…

All the majors hit new record highs today

Source: Bloomberg

S&P drifted back towards VWAP late in the day…

Overall, since the Oct 11 “phase one” deal, German stocks have outperformed US and China has lagged notably (managing to get green overnight)…

Source: Bloomberg

Another day, another giant short-squeeze to rescue stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

And VIX was clubbed like a baby seal to an 11 handle once again…

Notably, Defensives actually outperformed today as cyclicals faded late on…

Source: Bloomberg

Late in the day, equity protection costs began to rise, even as IG credit protection slipped lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields all rose today, but notably the short-end outperformed, belly underperformed (2Y +3.5bps, 7Y +6bps)

Source: Bloomberg

While stocks broke out of the recent range to new record highs, 30Y Yields stalled out at pre-deal levels…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar fell for the 10th day in the last 12…

Source: Bloomberg

As we noted above, Yuan limped higher (certainly not as enthusiastically as stocks), to the PBOC fix level…

 

Cryptos were monkeyhammered lower today…

Source: Bloomberg

The weaker dollar helped lift all commodities (with gold scratching out a tiny gain) as copper outperformed…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver has been outperforming gold in the last few days…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that the S&P is now as “top heavy” as it was during the dot com bubble: the five biggest stocks (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, FB and AMZN) account for 16.5% of the S&P’s market cap, the most since 1999.

And don’t forget, it’s not the fun-durr-mentals, central bank liquidity is all that matters…

Trade accordingly.

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

USA manufacturing pMI falters last month

(zerohedge)

US Manufacturing PMI Rebound Stalls

With ugly PMIs overnight across AsiaPac, and anything but Lagarde’s stability in Europe (and UK) this morning, preliminary December US PMIs were expected to extend their rebound (despite a slump in economic surprise data) in the last month.

  • Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Small Miss) 52.5 vs 52.6 exp and 52.6 prior – 2-month low
  • Markit US Services PMI (Small Beat) 52.2 vs 52.0 exp and 51.6 prior – 5-month high

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

The surveys bring welcome signs of the economy continuing to regain growth momentum as 2019 draws to a close, with the outlook also brightening to fuel hopes of a strong start to 2020. Business activity, order book and jobs growth all accelerated to five-month highs in December, buoyed by rising domestic sales and further signs of renewed life in export orders.

December’s expansion was led by an improved performance of the vast services sector, accompanied by another month of steady manufacturing growth. Encouragingly, expectations for business activity in the year ahead lifted higher in both sectors to reach the highest since June to suggest the expansion will continue to gain momentum as we head into the New Year. Optimism reflected reduced fears over trade wars and more favorable financial conditions.”

Mixed data from China overnight (but not PMI yet) but Japan and Europe remain flat at the composite PMI level but the US composite rose from 52.0 to 52.2 in December’s flash data…

Source: Bloomberg

However, Williamson suggests some caution is warranted:

The brighter news needs to be caveated, as the overall rate of economic expansion signalled by the surveys remains well below that seen this time last year, commensurate with GDP rising at an annualised rate of just over 1.5%.

Importantly, however, the welcome signs of improvement help to ward off recession risks and should keep the Fed on hold in the coming months. The upward trajectory in the surveys support our expectations that the US economy is on course to see another year of above potential GDP growth of approximately 2.2% in 2020.”

Will that be enough – along with “phase 2 trade talks going well” bullshit – to keep stocks alive until November?

end
TIC report:
Japan resumes buying and China continues to sell foreign exchange
(zerohedge)

Japan Extends Lead Over China As Biggest Foreign Holder Of US Treasurys

Japan resumed its buying of USTs in October (the latest TIC data), while China continued selling…

Source: Bloomberg

China was the second-largest foreign creditor in October, with $1.10 trillion in holdings. That’s the smallest amount since April 2017.

 

After overtaking China in June, Japan’s holdings of U.S. notes, bills and bonds increased to $1.17 trillion in October from $1.15 trillion a month earlier and are now back near the widest gap to China’s holdings since July 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, Belgium (often considered a proxy for Chinese offshore holdings), Cayman Islands (hedge funds), and the Saudis all dumped major chunks of their Treasury holdings in October…

  • Belgium holds $208.3b of U.S. Treasuries, a decrease of $10b from prior month
  • Cayman Islands hold $225.1b, a decrease of $13.6b from last month
  • Saudi Arabia holds $178.9b, a decrease of $2.6b from last month

Finally, we note that total foreign ownership of Treasuries was little changed after posting the biggest monthly drop since 2017 in September.

Overall foreign holdings of U.S. debt climbed $1.6 billion to $6.78 trillion in October, but foreign central banks have sold TSYs for 14 consecutive months…

…a total of $348BN in the LTM

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and the stock market..a perfect correlation!

(zerohedge)

Is The Market Up This Week? Just Ask The Fed’s Balance Sheet

Something remarkable happened when the Fed announced “NOT QE”: starting that week, every time the Fed’s balance sheet rose, so did the S&P. And the one week when the Fed’s balance sheet shrank, the market dropped. Yes, correlation may not be causation, but if a pattern repeats 9 weeks out of 9, then it becomes feedback loop which the math PhDs plug into their various algo/quant models and… voila:

Which begs the question: yesterday we reported that as part of its year-end repo bailout operation, the Fed plans on injecting over $500 billion of liquidity in the next 4 weeks, a process which will take the Fed’s balance sheet sharply higher by roughly $500 billion through mid-January, in the process pushing the balance sheet to a new all time high above $4.5 trillion. We wonder: just what will happen to stocks?

end
Monday Morning//early//what to expect!!!: D Day: 
Who will be right: Poszar or Skyrm or Lee Adler?? 
read this first…and then read the following commentary
(zerohedge)

Monday morning: in today’s repo operation it is again oversubscribed by a huge amount as dealers and hedge funds are trying to secure funding. Poszar told us to watch for repo rates rising and sure enough it rose today from 1.5 to 1.69%

(zerohedge)

Fed’s Emergency Repo Operation Oversubscribed As Repo Rates Spike To December High

Ahead of today’s massive liquidity drain, which according to some calculations will be as much as $100 billion between $54BN in coupon settlements from last week’s Treasury auctions and an additional $50 billion or so in corporate income tax payments to the Treasury…

… which combined would be as large, if not bigger than the Sept 16 cash transfer to the Treasury which sparked the mid-September repo crisis, last Thursday the Fed announced a “kitchen sink” liquidity tsunami, throwing as much as $500 billion in liquidity backstops in the form of expanded and extended repo and term repo operations, while keeping the Fed’s “Not QE” T-Bill monetization chugging along.

The first of these emergency repo operations was scheduled for this morning, ahead of the liquidity drain, in the form of a $50 billion, 32-day repo, which took place shortly after 8am, and was once again oversubscribed as there was more demand for liquidity, or $54.25 billion, than there was total supply.

Specifically, Dealers submitted $29.850BN in Treasury securities, and $24.4BN in MBS, at stop out rates of 1.56% and 1.58%, respectively, and which both came in more than fully subscribed relative to the $28.759BN in TSYs, and $21.241BN in MBS accepted.

This offering, which matures on January17, 2020, was the fourth “turn” repo providing funding past the year-end period.

The fact that the operation was oversubscribed was the first indication that banks are once again reserve-constrained and scrambling to procure as much year-end liquidity as they can get their hands on. Whether repo operations in the coming days are oversubscribed will indicate if the Fed’s roughly $500 billion in repo ops scheduled for the next 4 weeks will be enough to keep the Fed from losing control over overnight rates, as Credit Suisse repo expert Zoltan Pozsar predicted last week in his now infamous “Countdown to QE4” report.

One ominous sign: the overnight G/C repo rate spiked from 1.58% on Friday to 1.69% this morning, the highest print since the end of the November, and the clearest indication yet that despite throwing a kitchen sink of liquidity in the market, some dealers and banks are still having problems getting access to much needed liquidity.

Keep an eye on the repo rate over the next few hours for an indication if today’s $100 billion liquidity drain will overpower the Fed’s preemptive liquidity tsunami, in effect triggering Zoltan Pozsar’s worst-case scenario.

end
The USA deficit to 2020 is projected to come in at 1.01 trillion.  With other balance sheet needs such as student loans etc , the treasury will issue 1.08 trillion in new funding. The Fed will buy 40% of that
(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Rudy returns and can barely contain himself as to what he has discovered about the Bidens in the UKraine

(zerohedge)

Rudy Giuliani Can Barely Contain Himself Over His Ukraine Findings

Rudy Giuliani is grinning like the Cheshire cat. His standard smile.

For the past several weeks, the personal attorney to President Trump has been in Ukraine, interviewing witnesses and gathering evidence to shed light on what the Bidens were up to during the Obama years, and get to the bottom of claims that Kiev interfered in the 2016 US election in favor of Hillary Clinton. He has enlisted the help of former Ukrainian diplomat, Andriy Telizhenko, to gather information from politicians and ask them to participate in a documentary series in partnership with One America News Network (OANN) – which will make the case for investigating the Bidens as well as Burisma Holdings – the natural gas firm which employed the son of a sitting US Vice President in a case which reeks of textbook corruption.

According to the Journal, Giuliani will present findings from his self-described “secret assignment” in a 20-page report.

Trump and Giuliani say that then-Vice President Biden engaged in corruption when he called for the ouster of a Ukrainian prosecutor who had investigated a Ukrainian gas company where Hunter Biden served on the board. The Bidens deny wrongdoing, and ousting the prosecutor was a goal at the time of the U.S. and several European countries. –Wall Street Journal

(Note the Wall Street Journal’s use of a straw man when they write: “The allegations of Ukrainian election interference are at odds with findings by the U.S. intelligence community that Russia was behind the election interference.”

Apparently the three journalists who collaborated on the article didn’t get the memo that two countries can meddle at the same time, nor did any of them read the January, 2017 Politico article: Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Trump backfire – which outlines how Ukrainian government officials conspired with a DNC operative to hurt the Trump campaign during the 2016 election – a move which led to the disruptive ouster of campaign chairman Paul Manafort).

 

Rudy Giuliani’s trip to Kyiv this month, which he described as a “secret assignment,” included a meeting with Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Derkach. PHOTO: PRESS OFFICE OF ANDRIY DERKACH/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Telizhenko, the former diplomat, tells the Journal that the plan for the series was conceived during the impeachment hearings as a way for Giuliani to tell his side of the story. The former Ukrainian diplomat flew to Washington on November 20 to film with Giuliani, while in early December he accompanied America’s Mayor on the Kiev trip – stopping in Budapest, Vienna and Rome.

Rudy comes home

Upon his return to New York on Saturday, Giuliani says he took a call from President Trump while his plane was still taxiing down the runway, according to the Wall Street Journal.

What did you get?” Trump asked. “More than you can imagine,” answered the former New York mayor who gained notoriety in the 1980s for taking down the mob as a then-federal prosecutor.

According to the 77-year-old Giuliani, Trump instructed him to brief Attorney General William Barr and GOP lawmakers on his findings. Soon after, the president then told reporters at the White House, “I hear he has found plenty.”

Rudy has been working on this project for a while. In late January, he conducted phone interviews with former Ukrainian prosecutors Viktor Shokin and Yiury Lutsenko. On the call was George Boyle – Giuliani’s Chief Operating Officer and Director of Investigations. Boyle started as a NYPD beat cop in 1987, and was promoted to detective – eventually joining the Special Victims Squad. In short, the ever-grinning Giuliani has some serious professionals working on this.

When he believes he’s right, he loves taking on fights,” said longtime Giuliani friend, Tony Carbonetti.

That said, Giuliani’s efforts have not gone off without a hitch. In October, two associates – Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, both of whom assisted with his Ukraine investigation, were related in October on campaign-finance charges. Both men have pleaded not guilty, while Giuliani denies wrongdoing and says they did not lobby him. Parnas, notably, was also on the January call with Shokin and Lutsenko as a translator.

In pressing ahead on Ukraine, Mr. Giuliani has replaced the translation skills of Messrs. Parnas and Fruman with an app he downloaded that allows him to read Russian documents by holding his phone over them. But on his recent trip, he said, “despite whatever else you can say, I missed them.” –Wall Street Journal

Trump opponents insist Giuliani is conducting shadow foreign policy and orchestrated the ouster of former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch – who Ukraine’s new president Volodomyr Zelensky complained on a now-famous July 25 phone call accused of not recognizing his authority.

In the impeachment hearings, witnesses accused Mr. Giuliani of conducting a shadow foreign policy and orchestrating the ouster of the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. He was described as “problematic” and “disruptive” and, in testimony that cited former national security adviser John Bolton, likened to a “hand grenade that’s going to blow everybody up.” Mr. Giuliani has said he kept the State Department apprised of his efforts and that he was working at the president’s behest. –Wall Street Journal

Just having fun while Dems and friends try to destroy my brilliant career,” Giuliani wrote in a text message while conducting his investigation overseas.

END

This can be very ominous to our Democrats:  Jeff Van Drew has defected to the Republicans

(zerohedge)

Anti-Impeachment Democrat Jeff Van Drew Defects To GOP

Anti-impeachment Democratic Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New York has confirmed that he will switch parties and become a Republican, following a lengthy meeting with President Trump, according to Politico.

Van Drew is one of two Democrats who voted ‘no’ on opening the impeachment inquiry in the first place, and has been a vocal opponent of the effort, according to the report.

Sean Davis

@seanmdav

Nancy Pelosi isn’t just hemorrhaging votes for her impeachment gambit, she’s now facing wholesale defections from the Democrat party because of its impeachment hysteria. https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1205946597974118400 

Melanie Zanona

@MZanona

CONFIRMED: Democratic Rep. Jeff Van Drew has informed staff he is SWITCHING PARTIES and will become a Republican, following a lengthy meeting w/ Trump.

And senior Dems have been scrambling to reach him all day.

story w/ @heatherscope: https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/14/jeff-van-drew-change-parties-085036 

On Saturday, Van Drew’s congressional and campaign staff were notified of the expected switch, Democratic sources tell Politico. The only question which remains is when he will make the move official given next week’s House impeachment vote expected for Wednesday.

 

“It was supposed to be bipartisan, it was supposed to be incontrovertible. It was supposed to be something that was always on the rarest of circumstances,” Van Drew told reporters days ago. “Well it’s not bipartisan.”

Multiple senior Democrats tried to reach out to the New Jersey freshman on Saturday but were unsuccessful. Van Drew did not respond to calls and texts from POLITICO seeking comment.

Rumors had swirled around Capitol Hill this week that Van Drew was considering leaving the Democratic Party but he strongly denied those claims on multiple occasions. –Politico

Van Drew was elected in a heavily GOP district in southern New Jersey, flipping it blue. His win helped Democrats flip the House majority in the last election in a district that voted for Trump in 2016.

end
Nunes letter describes all of Schiff’s lies  and the cover up
(zerohedge)

‘You Need Rehabilitation’: Nunes Letter Dismantles Schiff Over FISA Lies, Stroking Steele, And Participating In Coverup

“As part of your rehabilitation, it’s crucial that you admit you have a problem –you are hijacking the Intelligence Committee for political purposes while excusing and covering up intelligence agency abuses.” -Devin Nunes to Adam Schiff

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) has written perhaps the most brutal ‘I told ya so’ letter in recent memory to Adam Schiff, his Democratic rival and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

After last week’s Inspector General report on FBI FISA abuse revealed Schiff was peddling lies to the American public in a February, 2018 ‘counter-memo’ to Nunes’s now-proven claims, Schiff passed the buck – telling Fox News host Chris Wallace on Sunday that he was ‘unaware’ of certain things unccovered by the IG – while failing to admit he’s been dead wrong on an ongoing basis about a number of things.

Nunes isn’t letting this go. In a Sunday letter, he reminded Schiff that “The IG’s findings of pervasive, major abuses by the FBI dramatically contradict the assertions of your memo released on February 24, 2018,in which you claimed, “FBI and DOJ officials did not ‘abuse’ the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) process, omit material information, or subvert this vital tool to spy on the Trump Campaign.

Schiff is in clear “need of rehabilitiation,” continues Nunes, adding “I hope this letter will serve as the first step in that vital process.

“Outlining every false claim from your memo would require an extremely long letter,” Nunes continues, who then lists several key claims made by Schiff which ‘the IG report has exposed as false.’ 

  • FBI and DOJ officials did not omit material information from the FISA warrant.
  • The DOJ “made only narrow use of information from [Christopher] Steele’s sources about Page’s specific activities in 2016.”
  • In subsequent FISA renewals, DOJ provided additional information that corroborated Steele’s reporting.
  • The Page FISA warrant allowed the FBI to collect “valuable intelligence.”
  • “Far from “omitting’ material facts about Steele, as the Majority claims. DOJ repeatedly informed the Court about Steele’s background, credibility, and potential bias.”
  • The FI31 conducted a “rigorous process” to vet Steele’s allegations, and the Page FISA application explained the FBI’s reasonable basis for finding Steele credible.
  • Steele’s prior reporting was used in criminal proceedings.

Nunes goes on to dismantle Schiff’s bullshit point by point using findings from the IG report, which include:

  • Information provided by Christopher Steele played a “central and essential role” in the decision to seek a FISA warrant on Carter Page.
  • There were seventeen “significant errors or omissions” in the FISA application and renewals, and the IG did not get satisfactory explanations for them.
  • The Crossfire Hurricane team failed to inform the DOJ of “significant information”, and “much of that information was inconsistent with, or undercut” assertions in the FISA applications.
  • The FBI relied solely on Steele information for its assertions about Page’s alleged coordination with Russians to hack the 2016 elections.

(See entire list below)

Nunes then calls out Schiff for defending Steele, who peddled his discredited, Clinton-funded dossier to the media six weeks before the 2016 US election

“As you know, your misguided validation of the FISA warrant was part of a years-long pattern in which you touted Christopher Steele’s credentials and reliability,” writes Nunes.

“For example, during this committee’s March 20, 2017 open hearing, you claimed Steele “is reportedly held in high regard by U.S. Intelligence.” and proceeded to read into the congressional record numerous conspiracy theories proffered by Steele, all of which are false.”

Next, Nunes accused Schiff of participating in a coverup: 

As is clear from the 16 report, Carter Page was the victim of a smear campaign that was funded by the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign and was implemented by Christopher Steele and Fusion GPS. The FBI used these false allegations to obtain a warrant to spy on Page, a gross violation of an American citizen’s civil liberties. Your direct participation in the smear campaign against Page is extremely concerning. considering you are chairman of the committee responsible for uncovering precisely these sorts of abuses by the Intelligence Community. Instead of joining committee Republicans in exposing these abuses, however, you excused them. And by supporting the agencies’ stonewalling of our attempts to gather information on this affair, you helped cover up this misconduct.

Because of Schiff’s misdeeds, and his blind faith in the US intelligence communities which the House Intelligence Committee is supposed to monitor, Nunes says “This makes it clear your rehabilitation will be a long, arduous process.”

“this committee is responsible for overseeing the Intelligence Community and exposing abuses. Yet when the IG identified gross abuses in our jurisdiction, you expressed full faith in the agencies we’re supposed to be vigilantly monitoring. and you rejected any oversight whatsoever of their supposed clean-up efforts,” writes Nunes.

Read the entire letter below:

***

Dear Chairman Schiff:

As you are aware, on December 9, 2019, U.S. Department of Justice Inspector General (IG) Michael Horowitz published the results of his investigation of the FISA warrant and renewals obtained by the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) to spy on Trump campaign associate Carter Page. The IG’s findings of pervasive, major abuses by the FBI dramatically contradict the assertions of your memo released on February 24, 2018, in which you claimed, “FBI and DOJ officials did not ‘abuse’ the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) process, omit material information, or subvert this vital tool to spy on the Trump Campaign.”

After publishing false conclusions of such enormity on a topic directly within this committee’s oversight responsibilities, it is clear you are in need of rehabilitation, and I hope this letter will serve as the first step in that vital process.

Outlining every false claim from your memo would require an extremely long letter, so I will limit my summary to a few highlights. In your memo you made the following assertions:

  • FBI and DOJ officials did not omit material information from the FISA warrant.
  • The DOJ “made only narrow use of information from [Christopher] Steele’s sources about Page’s specific activities in 2016.”
  • In subsequent FISA renewals, DOJ provided additional information that corroborated Steele’s reporting.
  • The Page FISA warrant allowed the FBI to collect “valuable intelligence.”
  • “Far from “omitting’ material facts about Steele, as the Majority claims. DOJ repeatedly informed the Court about Steele’s background, credibility, and potential bias.”
  • The FI31 conducted a “rigorous process” to vet Steele’s allegations, and the Page FISA application explained the FBI’s reasonable basis for finding Steele credible.
  • Steele’s prior reporting was used in criminal proceedings.

The IG report has exposed all these declarations as false. Despite your denial of any problems with the FISA warrant, the 16 found:

  • Information provided by Christopher Steele played a “central and essential role” in the decision to seek a FISA warrant on Carter Page.
  • There were seventeen “significant errors or omissions” in the FISA application and renewals, and the IG did not get satisfactory explanations for them.
  • The Crossfire Hurricane team failed to inform the DOJ of “significant information”, and “much of that information was inconsistent with, or undercut” assertions in the FISA applications.
  • The FBI relied solely on Steele information for its assertions about Page’s alleged coordination with Russians to hack the 2016 elections.
  • The applications omitted information provided to the FBI about Page’s operational contact with another U.S. government agency and the agency’s positive assessment of him. In fact, an FBI official altered an email stating that Page was a source for another government agency in order to have it read the opposite—that he was “not a source.”
  • FBI Director James Conley and Deputy Director Andy McCabe sought to include Steele’s reporting in the Intelligence Community Assessment even though the CIA dismissed the Steele information as `Internet rumor.”
  • In FBI interviews, Steele’s own sources contradicted information from Steele that was used in the FISA applications.
  • The significance of Steele’s prior reporting was ‘-overstated.”
  • None of the Steele reporting on Caner Page used in the FISA applications could be corroborated, and some of it contradicted other information in the FBI’s possession.
  • The FBI omitted information about Steele’s bias provided by DOJ official Bruce Ohr.
  • The applications omitted exculpatory statements by Page and others.
  • The FBI failed to reveal in the applications that the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary’ Clinton campaign were receiving and/or funding Steele’s work through Fusion UPS.

Overall, the Inspector General found, “That so many basic and fundamental errors were made by three separate, hand-picked teams on one of the most sensitive FBI investigations that was briefed to the highest levels within the FBI, and that FBI officials expected would eventually be subjected to close scrutiny, raised significant questions regarding the FBI chain of command’s management and supervision of the FISA process… In our view, this was a failure of not only the operational team, but also of the managers and supervisors, including senior officials, in the chain of command.” Indeed, the problems are so severe that the Inspector General has initiated an audit to further investigate FBI’s compliance with Woods Procedures in FISA applications.

As you know, your misguided validation of the FISA warrant was part of a years-long pattern in which you touted Christopher Steele’s credentials and reliability. For example, during this committee’s March 20, 2017 open hearing, you claimed Steele “is reportedly held in high regard by U.S. Intelligence.” and proceeded to read into the congressional record numerous conspiracy theories proffered by Steele, all of which are false. These included:

  • Carter Page had a secret meeting with Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin.
  • Sechin offered Page a brokerage fee involving the sale of 19 percent of Rosneft.
  • Russians offered the Trump campaign dirt on Hillary Clinton in exchange for the Trump administration adopting policies favorable to Russia
  • Paul Manafort chose Page to act as a go-between for the Trump campaign and Russia.

As is clear from the 16 report, Carter Page was the victim of a smear campaign that was funded by the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign and was implemented by Christopher Steele and Fusion GPS. The FBI used these false allegations to obtain a warrant to spy on Page, a gross violation of an American citizen’s civil liberties. Your direct participation in the smear campaign against Page is extremely concerning. considering you are chairman of the committee responsible for uncovering precisely these sorts of abuses by the Intelligence Community. Instead of joining committee Republicans in exposing these abuses, however, you excused them. And by supporting the agencies’ stonewalling of our attempts to gather information on this affair, you helped cover up this misconduct.

I am particularly concerned by the press release you issued after the release of the IG report. I applaud you for acknowledging that the report identified “issues and errors” and “potential misconduct” connected to the FISA warrant. This acknowledgement, though dramatically downplaying the scale of the abuse the IG uncovered, could be a valuable first step – a baby step, but a step nonetheless – in your rehabilitation. Nevertheless, in your statement you expressed full faith in FBI Director Christopher Wray’s promise to address the problem: demanded that the implementation of reforms be confined to “career officials, away from the political arena;” and denounced Attorney General Bill Barr and U.S. Attorney John Durham for expressing concerns about these matters.

This makes it clear your rehabilitation will be a long, arduous process. As previously noted, this committee is responsible for overseeing the Intelligence Community and exposing abuses. Yet when the IG identified gross abuses in our jurisdiction, you expressed full faith in the agencies we’re supposed to be vigilantly monitoring. and you rejected any oversight whatsoever of their supposed clean-up efforts. If agencies with a documented, severe abuse problem should be trusted to police themselves, then it’s fair to ask why this committee even exists and what we’re supposed to be doing, if anything, aside from being exploited by you as a launching pad to impeach the president for issues that have no intelligence component at all.

As part of your rehabilitation, it’s crucial that you admit you have a problem – you are hijacking the Intelligence Committee for political purposes while excusing and covering up intelligence agency abuses. The next step will be to convene a hearing with IG Horowitz, as the Senate Judiciary Committee has done and the Senate Homeland Security Committee will do next week.

I understand taking action on this issue will be difficult for you, as it will be an implicit acknowledgment that you were wrong to deny these abuses and that you were complicit in the violation of an American’s civil liberties. I also understand such an acknowledgement is made even more difficult by the fact that you’ve already been discredited by your years-long false claim that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to hack the 2016 presidential election.

Nevertheless, I refuse to believe you are beyond redemption. I invite you to work closely with me on your rehabilitation program, and look forward to your scheduling a committee hearing with IG Horowitz at the nearest opportunity.

end

Schiff, Nadler Insist Impeachment “Not A Failure” Despite Plunge In Public Support, Interest

No matter what the Democrats do to try and juice up some public hysteria about the impeachment process – from delaying votes to ‘prime-time’ to conjuring images of Trump holding Zelensky’s daughter hostage in the basement of The White House – it appears both public interest, and more importantly public support, for the impeachment of President Trump is slumping.

In the latest sign that Democrats are losing the public’s interest, Axios reports that The level of readers’ engagement on stories about impeachment has steeply declined since September, according to data from NewsWhip.

 

A trend that so vividly exposes the fact that while plenty of attention is being paid to the impeachment saga, it doesn’t draw the same level of emotion and enthusiasm that we saw in September.

Specifically, Axios notes that public interest hit its apex when the case against Trump was building and news cycles were driven by new revelations about Trump, Ukraine and the characters involved; but, after two weeks of public testimony in mid-November, the national conversation shifted from the accumulation of evidence to debate over whether that evidence was sufficient for impeachment and conviction.

And so as “interest” fades, so does “support” which, regardless of political affiliation, peaked in October.

For a brief glistening moment on The Hill, public support (based on the polls), topped 50% (on October 14th), but since then it has slid lower…

Source: FiveThirtyEight

As one would imagine, the support is split dramatically between Democrats (84.6%) and Republicans (10.0%) in favor of impeachment, but as the chart below shows, those whose mind remains “independent” – should those unicorns actually exist in the real life – have seen a dramatic slide in support.

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Finally, we note that, in addition to public interest (news report engagement) and public support (polls), the betting markets are also going “the wrong way” as PredictIt shows the odds of Trump serving out his first term are soaring back to pre-impeachment-process highs…

Source: PredictIt/Bloomberg

Simply put, no one trusts the news to get to the facts and when it is as boring, partisan, and predictable as this has been, who can blame them.

And don’t forget, Democrats have been planning this ‘coup’ since before the midterms, but according to the New York Times, Pelosi says she’s not going to push moderate Democrats to support the impeachment, saying she has “no message to them” and that “we’re not whipping this legislation.”

None of this appears to bother Rep. Eric Swalwell, who farted on live TV last week,

 

I’m not focused on the polls, I know my colleagues aren’t either… this president used his great vast power to ask a foreign government to help him cheat an election.”

Sadly, Mr. Swalwell, with members of your own party mutinying, perhaps it is time to listen to “we, the people” after all.

And despite all the evidence above, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff insisted “it isn’t a failure” during an ABC News interview on Sunday.

“No, it isn’t a failure, at least it’s not a failure in the sense of our constitutional duty in the House,” he said.

Nine months ago, Schiff said that the “only thing worse than putting the country through the trauma of an impeachment is putting the country through the trauma of a failed impeachment.”

Rep. Jerrold Nadler, the House Judiciary Committee chairman whose panel drafted two articles of impeachment, also believes the impeachment push wouldn’t be a failure if not passed in the Senate.

During an interview on Sunday, Nadler was reminded that he previously stated that “before you impeach somebody, you have to persuade the American public that it ought to happen,” including “Trump voters.”

We suspect Pelosi and the core of the Democratic Party base would disagree on whether this whole process has been a “failure” or not.

end
The second lie: Mueller et al knew that Carter Page was not a Russian agent and yet still asked for a FISA warrant to spy on him and thus Trump
(zerohedge)

Second Damning FBI Lie About Carter Page Revealed In IG Report: Sperry

Thanks to the DOJ Inspector General report on FBI surveillance abuses, we now know that the agency didn’t just lie about former Trump campaign aide Carter Page – they fabricated evidence to obtain a surveillance warrant, excluding the fact that he had worked with the CIA.

But wait, there’s more!

Thanks to a deep dive into the IG report, the Mueller report, and interviews with Trump campaign officials, RealClearInvestigationsPaul Sperry has found another fraud on the American public perpetrated by James Comey’s FBI: The agency, as well as Special Counsel Robert Mueller, knew full well that Page wasn’t “an agent of Russia,” and that he had no role in gutting a pro-Russia / anti-Ukraine GOP platform plank at the 2016 convention.

Strap in, Sperry goes deep on this one.

***

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations  (emphasis ours)

The FBI and Special Counsel Robert Mueller repeatedly kept alive a damning narrative that investigators knew to be false: namely, that a junior Trump campaign aide as a favor to the Kremlin had “gutted” an anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine plank in the Republican Party platform at the GOP’s 2016 convention.

Federal authorities used this claim to help secure spy warrants on the aide in question, Carter Pagesuggesting to the court that he was “an agent of Russia” – even though investigators knew that Page was working for U.S., not Russian, intelligence, and that they had learned from witnesses, emails and other evidence that Page had no role in drafting the Ukraine platform plank.

The revelation is buried in the Justice Department watchdog’s just-released report on FISA surveillance abuses. RealClearInvestigations fleshed out this unreported story with footnotes from the Mueller report and exclusive interviews with Trump campaign officials who worked on the convention platform.

Of all the Trump-Russia rumors, insinuations and falsehoods – from secret payments for shadowy hackers, to videotaped prostitutes with active bladders, to a clandestine rendezvous with Kremlin figures in Prague – the supposedly pro-Russia Ukraine platform alteration stands outIt seemed to offer early, public, concrete evidence of an actual bending of prospective U.S. policy to suit Moscow. The false narrative is also significant because it was initially pushed not by Democrats, but by associates of Republican Sen. John McCain and other so-called Never Trumpers. As a bipartisan red flag, it helped build momentum around a narrative of Trump treachery with, then as now, Ukraine playing a central role. It also shows how the Russia and Ukraine controversies were linked from the beginning by Trump’s foes.

This episode loomed so large that the first person Mueller’s team interviewed after taking over the Russia investigation in May 2017 was Rachel Hoff, who was serving as McCain’s policy adviser on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Like her boss, Hoff was no fan of President Trump. Agents sought to confirm with her reports that the Trump campaign had “gutted” the GOP’s platform plank on Ukraine to favor Russia during the party’s convention in Cleveland in early July 2016. 

As a disgruntled convention delegate, Hoff got the story started by putting Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin in touch with another Never Trump delegate, Diana Denman, who had lost her bid to amend the GOP plank to call for providing “lethal” weapons to Ukraine to help fend off Russian incursions, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. Instead, the platform called for “appropriate assistance to the armed forces of Ukraine.”

Denman was overruled because heavily arming Ukraine was out of step with the GOP consensus at the time – to say nothing of the Obama administration’s policy, which refused to arm the Ukrainians. And it was at odds with Trump’s stated position, which sought to avoid military escalation in the region, while encouraging the European Union to take a larger peacekeeping role.

On July 18, 2016, the Post ran Rogin’s sensational story under the misleading headline, “Trump Campaign Guts GOP’s Anti-Russia Stance on Ukraine.” Pushing the narrative that Trump was doing the Kremlin’s bidding, it quoted Hoff warning that Trump “would be dangerous for America and the world.” The story left out the key part of the final Trump-approved plank pledging aid “to the armed forces of Ukraine.” Reached by phone, Rogin declined comment.

This story was quickly amplified in the Steele dossier, the series of now-debunked opposition research memos alleging Trump-Russia collusion. Compiled by ex-British intelligence officer Christopher Steele for the Clinton campaign, those memos became a foundation for the FBI and Mueller probes even though – as this week’s IG report established – bureau agents knew that the material in them included demonstrably false assertions and exaggerated gossip dismissed as nonsense by Steele’s own purported source.

Steele also embellished the GOP convention story by claiming that Carter Page had played a key role in drafting the Ukraine plank as part of a commitment he had allegedly made to his Kremlin handlers “to sideline Russian intervention in Ukraine as a campaign issue.”

None of this was true. And the FBI — and Mueller — knew it, the Justice inspector general reveals in his report.

Still, the FBI presented the Steele dossier’s smear, cataloged as “Steele Report 95,” as key evidence in all four of its warrant applications to obtain wiretaps to eavesdrop on Page, according to the IG report.

To keep renewing the spy warrants, the FBI had to produce fresh evidence for FISA judges to support suspicions Page was “an agent of Russia.” Just a few weeks before the FISA warrant was set to expire in June 2017, Mueller had his investigators interview Hoff, as his first witness, followed by Denman, hoping they could provide fresh details to keep building an espionage case against Page and the Trump campaign.

But Mueller struck out. 

According to agents’ notes documenting their June 2017 interview, as revealed in the IG report, Denham told the FBI that Page was not involved in the drafting of the Ukraine plank. But Mueller’s team did not update its fourth and final FISA warrant application on Page with this exculpatory information. Instead, it recited the same baseless claim that he had shaped the Ukraine policy with guidance from Russia. And the court renewed the warrant that June to electronically monitor Page, allowing the government to continue vacuuming up all of his emails, phone calls, text messages and other communications for another 90 days.

“Although the FBI did not develop any information that Carter Page was involved in the Republican Platform Committee’s change, the FBI did not alter its assessment of Page’s involvement in the FISA applications,” Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz noted in his 476-page report released Monday.

Added Horowitz: “We found that, other than this information from Report 95 [of the Steele dossier], the FBI’s investigation did not reveal any information to demonstrate that Page had any involvement with the Republican Platform Committee.” Yet, “all four FISA applications relied upon information in the Steele reporting” alleging Page’s role in drafting the Republican plank on Ukraine and Russia.

A former U.S. Navy lieutenant, Page was never charged with espionage or any crime. He told RealClearInvestigations that he has received “numerous death threats that directly resulted from the false allegations” that he was a traitor.

The FBI and Mueller failed to correct the record about Page in their FISA warrant applications even after they identified the Trump campaign officials who actually had a hand in influencing the GOP plank, J.D. Gordon and Matt Miller. A July 14, 2016, email from Gordon confirmed what Page had personally told the FBI in an interview — that he had not taken part in the decision. The FBI knew about the email since at least March 2017, when agents sat down with Page. (Gordon and Page were chatting by email about the convention, and it’s clear from Page’s responses he had no idea what Gordon had done in the Ukraine-Russia platform drafting sessions. IG Horowitz published the relevant excerpt in his report and noted the FBI had the email in its possession.)

Still, Horowitz found, “The FBI never altered the assessment.”

Horowitz further concluded that the FBI should not have included the dossier’s rumor even in its original October 2016 application for a FISA warrant targeting Page, let alone its three renewals, because a confidential source the FBI assigned to spy on Page at the time found no basis for it. In the IG report, Horowitz noted that during that same month of October 2016, the FBI informant met with Page and tape-recorded him denying he was involved in the drafting of the Ukraine plank. Page told the informant, Stefan Halper, that he “stayed clear of that.”

Horowitz’s investigators established that the informant’s recorded statements were sent to the FBI agent assigned at the time to Page’s case, and were copied to a supporting team of other agents, supervisors and analysts. Yet the FBI also withheld that critical exculpatory evidence from the FISA court in the initial application for a warrant on Page (and then continued to deny the court the information in subsequent requests to monitor Page).

The lead case agent, unnamed in the report, told investigators the FBI was operating on a “belief” that Page was involved in the Ukraine and Russia platform, and that he and the FISA team were “hoping to find evidence of that” from the wiretaps. Despite all the snooping on Page, the FBI never collected the hoped-for proof.

The lead supervisor, also unidentified, told investigators “he did not recall why Page’s denial was not included.”

Horowitz reports that the exculpatory documents were also sent to a Justice Department attorney before the warrant was renewed for the first time in January 2017, “[y]et, the information remained unchanged in the renewal applications.”

Added Horowitz: “The attorney told us that he did not recall the circumstances surrounding this, but he acknowledged that he should have updated the descriptions in the renewal applications to include Page’s denials.”

The FBI also failed to inform surveillance court judges that Page was an “operational contact” for the CIA for several years, according to the Horowitz report. In 2013, Page also volunteered as a cooperating witness in an FBI espionage case, and helped put away a real Russian agent in 2016. This was additional exculpatory evidence the FBI kept from the FISA court, as RealClearInvestigations first reported last year.

Peter Strzok, then the FBI’s top counterintelligence official, rode herd on the Page wiretap requests and reported back to FBI attorney Lisa Page (no relation to Carter), who in turn, updated then-Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe.

Text messages previously uncovered by Horowitz and shared with Mueller revealed that Strzok and Page, who were having an affair, rooted for Hillary Clinton during the 2016 campaign and held Trump in complete contempt. In one exchange, they discussed the need to “stop” Trump from winning the election. And the two of them had also huddled with McCabe in his office to devise an “insurance policy” in the “unlikely event” Trump ended up winning.

The inspector general’s report points out that it was McCabe who urged investigators to look at the Clinton-funded dossier. The previous year, his Democratic politician wife, Jill, received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations arranged by Clinton ally and Virginia’s governor at the time, Terry McAuliffe.

Strzok remained central to the investigation well into 2017 – until Mueller was forced to kick him off his team when the anti-Trump bias was revealed. The bureau fired him in 2018, the same year Lisa Page resigned from the FBI. In spite of their anti-Trump political bias, Horowitz said he found “no evidence” their bias influenced their investigative decisions.

Lawyers for Strzok and McCabe did not respond to requests for comment. The FBI and a spokesman for Mueller declined comment.

Putting Carter Page under surveillance starting in October 2016 effectively let the FBI spy on the Trump campaign since its beginnings, because it allowed the bureau to scoop up all of Page’s prior communications. Former Trump officials who have reviewed Horowitz’s new findings confirmed their view that the bureau was trying to make it look like Page and the Trump campaign were doing something sinister to help Russia.

 

“Page actually had no role in the platform, whatsoever,” Gordon, the Trump campaign’s director of national security, told RCI. “Failing to include the exculpatory information in the FISA application is horrifying.”

While it’s true that Trump sought better relations with Russia, Gordon said, there was nothing nefarious about the drafting of the Ukraine platform. He said the FBI simply assumed it was watered down as a favor to Russia based on a false narrative driven by liberal media outlets like the Post and Never Trumpers such as Rachel Hoff. He said the FBI, under the direction of McCabe, Mueller and former FBI Director James Comey, also wanted to believe the worst about Trump, whom they simply did not like.

Gordon noted that, except for the two Never Trump delegates, nobody in the platform drafting sessions raised a fuss about the Ukraine plank — not even the press.

“The media was present in the room, yet not one person wrote about the Ukraine issue,” he said — until, that is, the Never Trumpers went to the Washington Post that July and helped launch the Trump-Russia “collusion” myth.

Moreover, the narrative was untrue even on its own terms – without the spurious inclusion of Carter Page. Internal platform committee documents show the Ukraine plank could not have been weakened as claimed, because the “lethal” weapons language was never part of the GOP platform in the first place. The final language actually strengthened the platform by pledging direct assistance not just to the country of Ukraine, but to its military in its struggle against Russian-backed forces.

Far from “gutting” assistance, the Trump administration approved the transfer of tank-busting Javelin missiles to Kiev — something the Obama administration refused to do. More than 200 of those weapons have been sold to Ukraine since Trump took office. And the sale and delivery of Javelins never stopped even during this year’s temporary suspension of military aid to Ukraine that is now the subject of the Democrats’ impeachment proceedings.

The final draft of the Ukraine plank also branded Russia a menace, and pledged to stand against “any territorial change imposed by force in Ukraine.” Yet Mueller and his prosecuting staff of mostly Democratic donors still suspected collusion, and they dispatched FBI agents to grill Gordon about the drafting of the platform three times between 2017 and 2019. They also got a grand jury to subpoena his phone records.

In the end, the Mueller report found no Russian influence in the platform.

But the false narrative – that the Ukraine plank stood as early proof of the “extensive conspiracy” between the Trump campaign and Moscow that Steele alleged in his now-debunked dossier – has persisted.

Earlier this year, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler demanded Gordon provide additional documents, and he has complied. Nadler is now marking up articles of impeachment against Trump over a request he lodged with Ukraine’s new president this summer to help investigate the former Clinton-friendly regime’s attempts to “sabotage” Trump’s election bid in 2016. Trump also asked Kiev to look into possible corruption involving former Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter and a Ukrainian energy oligarch.

Meanwhile, Nadler’s impeachment partner, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, continues to insist that the Trump team “softened” the GOP platform to accommodate “Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.”

A retired Navy commander and former Pentagon spokesman, Gordon said he has run up a five-figure legal bill defending against what he calls a “hoax” perpetrated by Never Trumpers, the media, Comey, Mueller, and now congressional Democrats.

In the vicious frenzy to destroy President Trump and his associates at all costs, they attempted to turn a routine foreign policy debate in conjunction with the four-year renewal of the GOP platform into a crime scene,” Gordon said in an interview with RCI.

“Incredibly,” he added, “the GOP platform change hoax [later] became the very first order of business in Mueller’s nearly two-year investigation.”

end
An absolute joke: Schumer insists on impeachment witnesses but downplays the Bidens testimony as witnesses as well as the whistleblower calling them distractions
(zerohedge)

Schumer Insists On Senate Impeachment Witnesses – Just Not Hunter Biden

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who staunchly opposed witnesses in the 1999 impeachment trial of Bill Clinton, announced on Sunday that he wants to summon witnesses to appear at a Senate trial if the House votes to impeach President Trump.

Just not Hunter Biden.

In a Sunday letter to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Schumer called for subpoenas to compel testimony from acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, his senior adviser Robert Blair, former National Security Adviser John Bolton and associate director for national security in the White House budget office, Michael Duffy, according to theWashington Times.

Hunter Biden – whose lucrative board seat on a Ukrainian gas company is at the heart of corruption allegations against he and his father Joe Biden – would be a “distraction,” according to Schumer.

“I think we should focus on having a fair trial,” said Schumer in a Monday appearance on CNN‘s “New Day,” adding “Hunter Biden doesn’t add to that.”

“I’m not going to negotiate here in public, but the bottom line is I haven’t seen a scintilla of evidence that Hunter Biden would add anything other than show, circus, distraction,” Schumer added. “If President Trump is so certain that he did nothing wrong, what is he afraid of?”

Schumer, who opposed witnesses in Clinton’s impeachment, says that things were different then.

“The Republicans could not negotiate a fair bunch of witnesses with the Democrats,” he said. “It wasn’t a bipartisan negotiation. It should be now.”

House Democrats have accused President Trump of abusing his office by improperly withholding military aid to Ukraine in exchange for the country announcing investigations into the Bidens and other matters.

Ukraine, meanwhile, had no idea the aid was being withheld at the time of a July 25 phone call in which President Trump made the requests of President Volodomyr Zelensky.

end
Jonathan Turley asks why no official apology to Carter Page
(Turley)

An Apology To Carter Page?

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

While the media has been quick to call developments as “vindication” for figures like Comey, it is largely silent on the poor treatment shown Page and the lack of evidence against him (and supporting the Russian investigation as a whole). Page has emerged as the Richard Jewell of the Russian investigation.

After he was acquitted in a major fraud trial, former Labor Secretary Ray Donovan asked, “Which office do I go to to get my reputation back?” The trial was ruinous for Donovan, personally and financially, and the question was a fair one. Donovan, however, at least received a trial. Former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page has never been given a fair hearing, let alone a trial, to clear his name. As the two political parties spin the results of a report by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz, one matter remains unaddressed. Someone needs to apologize to Page.

I do not know Page and have had only one conversation with him that I can recall. Indeed, my only impression of him was shaped by the image, repeated in endless media segments, of a shady character who was at worst a Russian spy and at best a Russian stooge. Page became the face and focus for the justification of the Russia collusion investigation. His manifest guilt and sinister work in Moscow had to be accepted in order to combat those questioning the allegations of Trump campaign collusion with the Russians. In other words, his guilt had to be indisputable in order for the Russia collusion investigation to be, so to speak, unimpeachable.

Ultimately, special counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence of collusion or conspiracy by Trump associates or the campaign with those Russians intervening in the election. However, Horowitz found that the FBI never had any real evidence against Page before beginning its investigation, codenamed Operation Crossfire Hurricane. Soon after the investigation was opened, it became clear that Page had been wrongly accused and was, in fact, working for the CIA, not the Russians. Page himself later said he was working with the CIA, yet the media not only dismissed his claim but was very openly dismissive while portraying him as a bumbling fool.

Horowitz found that FBI investigators and lawyers had determined that the allegations involving Page fell short of a case for probable cause to open a secret warrant under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Those investigators were then told by the eventually fired FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe to look at the Steele dossier, which was actually funded by the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee. The Clinton campaign denied repeatedly that it funded the dossier but finally admitted doing so after being confronted by media with new information.

Despite warnings about the credibility of Steele and red flags over the unreliability of the dossier, Horowitz found that “FBI leadership” used the dossier to justify its application for a FISA warrant. Democratic members of Congress and a wide array of media outlets have long told the public that the dossier was just one part of the FISA application. That is false. Horowitz states that the dossier played the “central and essential role” in securing the secret surveillance of the Trump campaign, including four investigations with both electronic surveillance and undercover assets.

Early on, Horowitz found that an unnamed government agency, widely acknowledged to be the CIA, told the FBI that it was making a mistake about Page and that he was working for the agency as an “operational contact” in Moscow. Indeed, he was working as an asset for the CIA for years. While it was falsely reported that Page met with three suspicious individuals there, he had no contact with two of those individuals. More importantly, Page did the right thing and told American officials about being contacted by the third person, because he felt they should know.

It gets even worse. Throughout Operation Crossfire Hurricane, evidence continued to flow into the FBI that Christopher Steele, the former British spy who wrote the infamous dossier, was unreliable and working against the election of Trump. Not only was he known to be trying to get this false information to the press, but evidence mounted that he misrepresented sources and stated false information. While it took long, someone at the Justice Department finally decided to act on the FISA matter regarding Page. The official in charge of FISA applications, Kevin Clinesmith, was told to ask the CIA again about whether Page had been working for the agency. He was again told that Page in fact was, yet Clinesmith allegedly changed the CIA response to describe Page as not working for it. He is now being criminally referred by Horowitz for falsifying that information.

Investigators also found an array of messages against Trump on the social media accounts of Clinesmith, including one declaring “vive le resistance” after Trump won. Meanwhile, throughout this period, the FBI was leaking aplenty but no one leaked the Page was actually a CIA asset. Instead, he was left to twist slowly in the wind. Media reports all but convicted Page of being a Russian spy. Evan Hurst wrote about him last year asking, “Why the hell are Republicans dying on this hill to defend Carter Page,” whom Hurst described, in all caps, as “a literal actual Russian intelligence asset.”

Natasha Bertand later wondered why anyone would question the case against Page. After all, she wrote, Senator Mark Warner, who is ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, had warned reporters to “be careful what you wish for” and one of his aides told her that is is “simply impossible to review the documents” on Page and conclude anything other than that the FBI “had ample reason” to investigate him. Her article was published long after the FBI had been told that Page was working with the CIA, but many other stories ran with similar comments from senators suggesting that anyone defending Page would be ridiculed after the release of some damning evidence. Mueller and Horowitz have now confirmed that there was never such evidence showing Page was a Russian asset. Indeed, the evidence showed he was an American asset.

As Horowitz has now stressed, there is a difference between starting an investigation based on mere allegations and continuing the investigation based on known falsehoods. His report documents how direct exculpatory information was quickly shared with the FBI. I do not know anything about Page other than what I have read in these reports. All I know is that he is an American citizen put under a secret surveillance operation based on a dossier shown to be both unfounded and unreliable. He then remained under surveillance with three renewals of secret warrants, even though the FBI was told repeatedly that Page was working with the CIA and that the dossier used to obtain those warrants was considered unsupported. Finally, Page was the subject of an alleged falsification of a document presented to the FISA court to obscure that exculpatory information.

At what point does someone apologize to Page? He is, in fact, the victim of this criminal referral. He is the victim of what Horowitz describes as a “misleading” basis presented to the FISA court. He is a victim of media “groupthink” that portrayed him as the sinister link proving collusion with Russia, an allegation rejected by the FBI, by the inspector general, and by the special counsel. Of course, Washington does not work this way. Page served his purpose and the trashing of his reputation was a cost of doing business with the federal government for many members of Congress and the media. In recalling the question by Donovan, there is no such office. Page is simply supposed to disappear and leave his reputation behind.

end
What are these guys up to? Democrats demanding Mueller’s secret grand jury files
they are totally nuts!
(zerohedge)

House Democrats Demand Mueller’s Secret Grand Jury Files For Impeachment

Lawyers for Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee have argued that secret grand jury materials are required from former special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation in order to properly impeach President Trump, according to The Hill.

House Democratic attorneys told a federal appeals court on Monday that the Justice Department needs to urgently release the redacted materials despite the fact narrow scope of the impeachment which doesn’t overlap with Mueller’s probe. The DOJ has argued that the House should not have access to the documents.

“The Department of Justice (DOJ) takes extraordinary positions in this case,” wrote attorneys for the House Judiciary Committee to the D.C. Circuit Court. “It does so to avoid disclosing grand-jury material needed for the House’s impeachment of President Trump and the Senate’s trial to remove him from office.”

Counsel for the Judiciary Committee have long held out the possibility that Trump’s alleged obstruction of Mueller’s nearly two-year probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign could prove critical to the impeachment inquiry.

The Monday court filing shows Democrats doubling down on that argument even as the impeachment process moves quickly and after the House committees involved unveiled two impeachment articles that focused narrowly on Trump’s alleged abuse of power over his dealings with Ukraine and the administration’s obstruction of Congress. –The Hill

Surely re-litigating Russiagate amid an already-unpopular impeachment inquiry will inspire undecided voters to join team blue.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

@realDonaldTrump: We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more. The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder….

    The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!

@CNBCnow: Stocks edge higher as China says it has agreed with the U.S. on the context of a phase one trade deal and that the U.S. will cancel tariffs in phases   https://cnb.cx/2taiV3m

     Trump says ’25% tariffs will remain,′ but new China duties will not take effect Sunday

Stocks turn lower after ‘phase one’ trade deal is announced by China with few details and Trump scraps December 15 tariffs https://cnb.cx/2slDrOa

WSJ: In Beijing, Mr. Wang said that the deal would need to first go through legal procedures in both countries before it is signed. The U.S. would remove its tariffs in stages, Mr. Wang said, declining to disclose details on the scale of the tariff reduction or of its purchases of U.S. farm products.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-china-confirm-reaching-phase-one-trade-deal-11576234325?shareToken=st3cd19c18e2ee4020918396bc4def19c9&tesla=y

@GordonGChang: Substance of the trade “deal”: Prez Trump rolls back tariffs on Sunday and sometime in the future China will sign an agreement in which it makes vague promises that it will never keep. The champagne is flowing in Beijing

We are old enough to remember when Dems and the MSM claimed that any criticism of Mueller and his droogs was ‘obstruction of justice’.  Now, Dems and the MSM are slandering and bashing Barr.

 

@paulsperry_: Spygate is the biggest political story in our lifetimes & the WaPo won’t write the obvious headline: FBI FALSIFIED EVIDENCE TO SPY ON PRESIDENT TRUMP

@TomFitton: Former DOJ lawyer Mary McCord, who the IG report shows was a major player pushing the spying on @RealDonaldTrump, is now a lawyer for House coup cabal. https://politico.com/news/2019/12/12/trump-impeachment-legal-083037

 

@ChuckRossDC: Crossfire Hurricane team, which kicked over every rock to find evidence of Trump campaign links to Russia, didn’t know that Chris Steele was himself working for a Russian oligarch.

https://dailycaller.com/2019/12/13/christopher-steele-russian-oligarch-fbi/

@ByronYork: This kind of stuff would be funny had it not been so damaging to the nation’s political life for the last three years.

 

We Asked the 31 House Democrats from Trump Districts How They Would Vote on Impeachment — Not One Was Fully Committed

https://dailycaller.com/2019/12/12/house-democrats-donald-trump-districts-vote-impeachment/

 

Dem Caught Watching Golf during Impeachment Hearing – Democrat Rep. Cedric Richmond decided that watching the President’s Cup Golf Tournament was more important…

https://thegreggjarrett.com/dem-rep-watches-golf-during-impeachment-hearing/

Patrick Howley @HowleyReporter: If Paul Ryan hadn’t thrown the House elections and Fox News hadn’t been in on it, calling the losses early with Karl Rove, the President would not be getting impeached going into an election year.

Comey admits error in defense of FBI’s FISA process after IG report: ‘He was right, I was wrong’

He was “overconfident” when he defended his former agency’s use of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA)… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/comey-defends-fbis-fisa-process-after-scathing-ig-report

 

@julie_kelly2: It’s stunning to watch Comey, who signed the very first FISA application on Carter Page, act like he had nothing to do with it.

Schiff: Had I Known About the FISA Abuse, I Would Have Called Out the FBI

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019/12/15/schiff-had-i-known-about-the-fisa-abuse-i-would-have-called-out-the-fbi/

 

@EliLake: Schiff says on @FoxNewsSunday “there were serious abuses of FISA” but then says it wasn’t apparent two years ago. He had the same information as Nunes. Nunes called out those abuses. Schiff chose to attack Nunes instead of performing his oversight duties.

Babylon Bee:Santa Claus Accused of Quid Pro Quo for Giving Children Gifts in Exchange for Good Behavior – Legislators have begun to hold hearings on impeaching Santa Claus after an overheard conversation seemed to imply he was offering a quid pro quo: gifts in exchange for good behavior…

   The FBI was able to obtain a FISA warrant to spy on Claus, because it’s easier to get a FISA warrant than to get a Costco membership…

    Unfortunately, he was assigned a public defender, who turned out to be Rudy Giuliani…

https://babylonbee.com/news/ho-ho-no-santa-claus-accused-of-quid-pro-quo-after-giving-children-gifts-in-exchange-for-good-behavior

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

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