DEC 17//GOLD UP 30 CENTS TO $1476.50//SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO $17.02//HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD::$1476.50 UP $0.30    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.02 DOWN 5 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1476.80

 

silver:  $17.02

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  5/80

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,475.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/16/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/18/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 33
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 18
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 66 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 4
800 C MAREX SPEC 11 15
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 80 80
MONTH TO DATE: 13,438

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 80 NOTICE(S) FOR 8000 OZ (0.2488 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  13,438 NOTICES FOR 1,343,800 OZ  (41.797 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

159 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 795,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3489 for 17,445,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 6904 UP 11 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 6595 DOWN 296

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1923 CONTRACTS FROM 203,880 UP TO 205,803 WITH THE 12 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  190 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  190 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 190 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2190 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 0.95 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 12 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

19.145   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 12 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED  2113 CONTRACTS. OR 10.565 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER. AND THAT IS PROBABLY THE REASON FOR THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

21,272 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 21,272 CONTRACTS) OR 106.360 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1519 CONTRACTS OR 7.597 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  106.36 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,195.92   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1923, WITH THE 12 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 190 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2113 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 190 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1923 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.07 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.029 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 147% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 159 NOTICE(S) FOR 795,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  19.145 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY SMALL 376 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 711,378. THE FALL IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED WITH A  $0.40 PRICING LOSS ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4245 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  4245 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 711,378,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  FAIR SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,869 CONTRACTS: 376 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 4245 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3869 CONTRACTS OR 386,900 OZ OR 12.03 TONNES.  MONDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $0.40 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A FAIR GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 12.03  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN  $0.40) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (12.03 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 102,303 CONTRACTS OR 10,230,300 oz OR 318.21` TONNES (14 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7302 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 318.21 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 318.21/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.96% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     6,044.32  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASS76E CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 376 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($0.40)) //.WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4245 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4245 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3,869 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4245 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 376 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 12.03 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN PRICE OF $0.40 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP .30 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A TINY CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES

DEC 17/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 886.22 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: 

 

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//

 

 

DEC 17/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1923 CONTRACTS from 203,880 UP TO 205,879 AND CLOSER TO A NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 190

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  190  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 190 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1923  CONTRACTS TO THE 190 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2113 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.565 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 19.145 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 190 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.03 POINTS OR 1.27%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 335.62 POINTS OR 1.22%   /The Nikkei closed UP 113.77 POINTS OR 0.47%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .03%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9964 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9964 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9954 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Softbank is a very large Japanese bank.  We now have Japanese and other banks having second thoughts about lending money to it due the WeWork debacle

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

i)HONG KONG
Hong Kong’s airport passenger volumes crash to decade lows due to the socio-economic climate in the city
(zerohedge)

ii)China/USA

Both countries are using creative ways for China to meet its Phase One targets with purchasing goods from the USA

(zerohedge))

iii)China/USA

USA is now set to finalize new rules to limit the exports of high tech technology to China and Russia
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Mish Shedlock correctly states that it is going to be easier for UK to break with the UK.  Johnson is in the driver’s seat

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

ii)The pound tumbles after Johnson reports that he is outlawing any further Brexit delays

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

A good Bellwether: Capesize shipping rates (large bulk shipping) plunges to a six month low

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Equinox Gold is to acquire Leagold for $578 million

(Reuters/GATA)_

ii)Dave Kranzler:

Junior miners are undervalued

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)USA single family building permits reach a 12 year high> Low interest rates are doing the trick

(zerohedge)

ii)USA manufacturing rebounds in November with the car sector leading the way

(zerohedge)

iii)The JOLTS report, a mixed bag

(ZEROHEDGE)

iv)This is a biggy…Fedex is one of the best Bellwether for global and USA activity..Earnings were disastrous..and worse of all, forward guidance showed a continual faltering in activity. .(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)Just take a look at the data:  all market rallies are due to the Fed Qe4

(zerohedge)

ii)Again, Trump urges the Fed to cut rates to launch officially QE which they are already doing

(zerohedge)

iii)This will not be good for the uSA economy: Boeing suppliers all slide as the 737 max production is halted

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)You will enjoy this one!! Schiff yelled at during a town hall event in Glendale

(zerohedge)

ii)not good:  Judge Sullivan denies Flynn”s request for exculpatory information which is considerable

(Epoch Times)

iii)A good article by Dershowitz:  Did the Supreme Court by taking up Trump’s tax cases pull the rug under his articles of impeachment?

a great read.
(courtesy Alan Dershowitz)

iv)Rudy Giuliani was on fox news yesterday and states that he has lots of evidence which shows that Yovanovitch was the master of the cover up in Ukraine and that was the reason for her ousting(Sara Carter)

v)John Solomon reports that the Latvian Government flagged “suspicious” Hunter Biden payments in 2016

(John Solomon)

vi)Trump[ warns the Democrats in a scathing letter:

Donald Trump/zerohedge)

vii)As I thought would happen:  McConnell is ready to entertain a motion to dismiss the articles immediately following opening arguments due to lack of direct evidence  (not hearsay evidence)(zerohedge)

vii)

Finally the FISA court responds to the abuses it took at the hands of the FBI
(Kruzel/the Hill)
and then zero hedge

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 376 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 711,378 WITH THE LOSS OF $0.40 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4245 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 200 ; FEB: 4245  AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4245 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 3869 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4245 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 376 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $0.40). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 3869 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  3869 CONTRACTS OR 386,900 OZ OR 12.03 TONNES.  

 

 

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 639 open interest stand for a LOSS of 97 contracts.  We had 71 notices so we lost 26 contracts or an additional 2600 OZ will not stand  for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on the other side of the pond as they accepted to morph into London based forwards and well as accepting a fiat bonus.

 

we had: 80 notice(s) filed upon for 8000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI DECREASE by ONLY 112 contracts DOWN to 5052 which is extremely high for a January delivery month and the OI is not rolling to Feb…these guys are intent to stand for delivery as well!!.. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A GAIN  OF 243 in contracts UP to 506,678.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1923 CONTRACTS FROM 203,880 UP TO 205,803(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH WITH A 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/MONDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a LOSS of 112 contracts DOWN to 479. We had 129 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we GAINED ANOTHER 17 contracts or an additional 85,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

After December, we have a LOSS in the next front month of January of 23 contracts to stand at 971.  The Feb non active month saw a GAIN of 3 contracts UP to 206.  March is a very active month and here we witness a GAIN of 1656 contracts UP to 161,142

 

We, today, had 159 notice(s) filed for 795,000, OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 175,016  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  175,443  contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 17/2019

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
80 notice(s)
 8000 OZ
(0.2208 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
559 contracts
(55,9000 oz)
1.738 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
13,438 notices
1,343,800 OZ
41.797 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

ii) out of Brinks:  nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil oz

 

Out of HSBC:

we had 893.53 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of HSBC and this will be deemed a settlement: 0.028 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 80 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 5 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,438) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (639 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (80 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,399,700 OZ OR 43.536 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (13,438 x 100 oz)  + (639)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (80 x 100 oz )which equals 1,399,700 oz standing OR 43.536 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

We LOST 26 contracts or an additional 2600 oz will NOT stand at the comex as they  morphed into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 35.349 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              43.536 TONNES

 

total: 119.515 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 14.8936 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 119.515  tonnes

 

Thus:

119.515 tonnes of delivery –

14.8936 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 104.62 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.3749 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,374,045.429 oz or  42.738 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,136,491.8 oz (35.349 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged)  1,136,491.8 tonnes  (35.349 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,777,566.603 oz 272.95 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

 

WE HAD 71 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  7100 OZ. (0.2208 TONNES)

 

end

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 17 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 621,825.326 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
599,889.170 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
159
CONTRACT(S)
(795,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
340 contracts
1,700,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3489 contracts

17,445,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into CNT: 599,889.170 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.88% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/317.0 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  599,889.170  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT: 620,810,626 oz

ii) Out of  Brinks:  1,014.700 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 621,825.326  oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.202 million

total dealer + customer silver:  317.065 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 159 contract(s) FOR 795,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3489 x 5,000 oz = 17,445,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (499) and the number of notices served upon today 159 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 3489 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (499)- number of notices served upon today (159) x 5000 oz equals 19,145,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We gained 17 contracts or an additional 85,000 oz will stand at the comex as they, refused to morphed into London based forwards. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 159 notice(s) filed for 795,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  45,525 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 51,545 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 51,545 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 257 million  OZ 36.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.90% ((DEC 17/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.30% to NAV (DEC 17/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.90%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.68 TRADING 14.13///DISCOUNT  3,73

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 17/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 886.22 tonnes

*IN LAST 726 TRADING DAYS: 51.03 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 626 TRADING DAYS: A NET 116.02 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

 

 

DEC 17:  SLV INVENTORY

364.858 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.97/ and libor 6 month duration 1.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .08

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.98%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Fed Is Monetizing 90% of U.S. Deficit to Keep Interest Rates from Rising and Crashing Markets

By Daniel R. Amerman, CFA

As can be seen in the graph above, for the last 12 weeks there has been a stunning visual correlation between the yellow bars of the total weekly funding of deficits by the Federal Reserve, and the green bars of the weekly deficit spending by the United States government.

Total deficit spending, the extent to which monies spent by the federal government exceeded taxes collected, was a staggering $422 billion in just the last 12 weeks. In total, $367 billion of the funding for this increase in the national debt was provided at very low interest rates, via the mechanism of the Federal Reserve simply creating the money needed to fund the government spending.

Neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve will admit to what is happening. The Fed is using two separate programs to accomplish this, with a sufficient degree of complexity that it becomes difficult for average citizen to follow where the money is coming in from and what it is being used for.

In this step by step analysis, we will put together the week by week numbers from the Fed and the Treasury, uncover what is being hidden behind a veil of complexity, and show the simple truth – about 90% of recent federal government deficit spending has effectively been funded at below market rates by simply creating the new money.

Full article via Danielamerman.com via GATA.org

Is Your Gold and Silver Bullion S.A.F.E. ?
Segregated, Actionable, Flexible and what are the total Expenses?

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold ends with a modest loss, pressured by strength in bond yields, as investors assess trade deal

Gold steadies as trade uncertainties linger

Wall St. touches fresh highs on China data, trade deal boost

Goldman Sachs to spend $750 billion on climate transition projects and curb fossil fuel lending

Argentina’s black market peso tumbles on ‘tourism tax’ fears

Overnight repo rate rises to highest since Oct. 30, slightly oversubscribed 32-day

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

16-Dec-19 1477.40 1477.90, 1106.87 1108.13 & 1325.97 1325.23
13-Dec-19 1470.60 1466.60, 1097.51 1099.07 & 1315.60 1315.10
12-Dec-19 1474.70 1467.80, 1117.82 1116.56 & 1325.02 1319.55
11-Dec-19 1468.05 1466.80, 1116.89 1112.71 & 1324.92 1322.47
10-Dec-19 1464.45 1464.95, 1112.25 1112.04 & 1322.69 1322.26
09-Dec-19 1463.60 1461.70, 1112.04 1111.48 & 1323.09 1320.06
06-Dec-19 1474.85 1459.65, 1122.80 1112.40 & 1328.54 1320.25
05-Dec-19 1474.60 1475.95, 1122.76 1122.31 & 1329.65 1329.54
04-Dec-19 1475.85 1475.10, 1131.53 1125.94 & 1332.54 1327.89
03-Dec-19 1470.40 1477.30, 1132.50 1136.78 & 1328.51 1333.12
02-Dec-19 1457.50 1461.15, 1130.00 1130.05 & 1323.26 1321.17

Watch Our Latest Video Update Here

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Equinox Gold is to acquire Leagold for $578 million

(Reuters/GATA)_

Equinox Gold to acquire Leagold for $578 million

 Section: 

From Reuters
Monday, December 16, 2019

Canada’s Equinox Gold Corp. will buy rival Leagold Mining Corp. for C$769.3 million ($578.38 million), the company said today, the latest addition to the increasing number of mergers in the gold mining industry. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/leagold-mining-ma-equinox-gold/equinox-g..

END

Dave Kranzler:

Junior miners are undervalued

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

Dave Kranzler: Junior exploration gold and silver stocks are generationally undervalued

 Section: 

10:17a ET Monday, December 16, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Shares of gold and silver junior exploration stocks, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics writes today, are at their lowest level in 19 years relative to metal prices even as the Federal Reserve has begun a huge new wave of money creation, traditionally fuel for gold and silver prices. Kranzler’s analysis is headlined “Junior Exploration Stocks Are Generationally Undervalued” and it’s posted at IRD here:

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/junior-exploration-stocks-are-gen…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

https://www.jsmineset.com/2019/12/17/how-much-of-the-past-administration-is-being-looked-at/

J. JOHNSON’S PHYSICAL REPORT:

How Much of the Past Administration is Being Looked At?

Posted December 17th, 2019 at 9:25 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

      Gold is trading higher with the value pegged at $1,482.80 up $2.40 from the Comex close with the high nearby at $1,484.90 and the low at $1,478.70. Today, Silver is following with the trade at $17.125, up 1.2 cents after reaching $17.15 with the low at $17.055. The March US Dollar contract, which is now the leading futures contract in currencies, is trading at 96.595, up 1.5 points after spiking up to 96.865 (in order to fill the gap created at the close of Decembers contract) with the low right here at 96.585. All of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Adam Schiff was called a liar, traitor, and “going to jail” for his actions, by those at his own gathering in Glendale, Ca.

      In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 14,809.47 Bolivar, giving the holder another 12.99 Bolivar gain with Silver at 171.036, proving a 0.499 Bolivar gain since yesterday’s early morning quote. In Argentina, Gold is now valued at 88,561.11 Pesos, giving the holder an additional 52.89 A-Peso pop in price with Silver at 1,022.60 Pesos, giving the holder 2.25 more A-Peso’s. Over in Turkey, Gold is currently priced at 8,714.34 giving the holder another 48.59 gain in the Turkish Lira with Silver giving the holder another 0.7772 of a T-Lira with the price now at 100.669.

      December (Red) Silver’s Delivery Demand count fell by 112 fully paid for contracts providing a Demand Count of 499 to start the day off and with a Volume of 4 up on the board with another singular price at $16.995, a negative 2.4 cent start from yesterday’s close. Speaking of yesterday’s delivery numbers, I observed the end day Volume of 75 when the Demand was at 611. I also watched the “ticks” in trade which totaled 7 with the last trade at $16.94, yet the Comex closed the delivery price out at $17.019. Here we have another example of the trade and the price nowhere near equaling each other. From my understanding, each tick is a purchase price, but they still do not reflect the events that are being hidden in plain site with the Volume of 75 and a reduction in count of 112 from the previous day. I am also convinced those that are supposed to answer the questions at the Comex, have no idea what is going on either. Then we go directly to the governing bodies, who have totally ignored all aspects of open market activity and free trade in order to hide the slime they’ve approved during the last administration.

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest continues to prove our points we’ve highlighted over the years that the price would have exploded already had it not been for all those additional pieces of paper added during the past administrations authority, with this morning’s total count now at 205,854 Overnighters proving 1,921 more short contracts had to be added in order to “stay” the price, err, I mean to add liquidity in the trade.

      The past administrations closing out activities seems to be the focus of the DOJ. We believe they are right on track. AG Barr is also looking into the international trade deals as well, with the Biden/Pelosi families, being only a start. We also wonder, as well as many others in the precious metal’s markets, if Barr will be able to link the past Administration’s assistance with the one that lost, and the sudden jump in Open Interest in Silver when Trump knocked out the one, they all thought would win. Sure, seems to be heading in that direction, especially with London being involved not only in the manipulations in our election, but also the cross-border trades made via EFP’s going to London (all Harvey Organ here). All of this started before Trump won and as Obama was leaving.

      We have no choice but to wait as the evidence piles up. However, the past administrations activities, not only in the election, but the former Obama appointed AG that claimed a certain bank, was Too Big To Fail, as well as letting MFGlobal’s chief thief Corzine off the hook with those links to London (transferring the balances of MFGlobal to the city), may now all being looked at thru the balanced and open eyes of the American public. Nothing to see here?

      We stand strong in our beliefs, that there are real patriots in our government and law enforcement, that see what we have been thru. These people are Patriots period! They care not about party affiliation! They care about Law and Order and the Rule of Law and how everyone, including those that we elect, are under this Rule, not above it. It is time to put away the left/right paradigm and focus on the corruptions within all branches of government. The Swamp is being drained, because we are using law and order properly. Q the moments that make up a good day, keep that smile on your face and a positive attitude in your head no matter what, and as always …

Search for the Truth!

JJohnson

end

Jeff Christian is now touting silver and states that one must go long.  First time in 9 years:

 

First silver recommendation in eight years by Jeffrey Christian. In 2011 it was to sell. Today it is to buy. What timing!! Christian and his 9th floor access to the Fed (without conflicts of interests, of course) for his private clients means maybe the jig is up? With FASAB 56, synthetic derivative supply and demand, etc… nothing is real anymore, except hard assets. . https://www.kitco.com/news/2019- 12-16/Can-silver-prices-top-gold-s-performance-in-2020- Analyst-watching-improving-demand.html

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9964/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9954   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 38.03 POINTS OR 1.27%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 335.62 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 113.77 POINTS OR 0.47%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.10/Euro RISES TO 1.1160

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.61/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.38 and Brent: 65.60

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.29%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.29% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.58: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.35

3k Gold at $1478.65 silver at: 17.08   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 17/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.64

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.61 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9807 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0945 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.29%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.86% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.28%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8823..GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY LOW!!

“Danger Of Peak Optimism” As Global Stock Rally Fizzles, US Futures Dip

After surging to all time highs virtually every day over the past week in a frenzied year-end FOMO panic by investors, on Tuesday the global stock rally finally fizzled as US equity futures struggled to break into the green while European shares fell even as Asian shares rose to the highest level since June 2018.

 

S&P500 index futures pointed to a weak opening after after rising just shy of 3,200 to a new record-high close…

 

… that was underpinned once again by the US-China Phase One trade deal which as we learned last night, has not even been finalized yet and China objects to several points of the deal.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

Points by @USTradeRep irritating Chinese trade experts:1) assertion agreed to end “forcing” tech transfers (China balks transfers forced) 2) mention of devaluations (feels one-sided, and econ slowdown=weaker CNY) 3) no @wto reference to settle disputes(so again unequal)😬

View image on Twitter

Boeing fell further in pre-market trading after deciding to halt production production of its best-selling 737 MAX jetliner in January, its biggest assembly-line halt in more than 20 years, as fallout from two fatal crashes of the now-grounded aircraft drags into 2020.

European shares pulled back after a record run on Tuesday as a sales warning from Unilever prompted investors to sell big consumer names, while concern that Britain will take a hard line on the Brexit transition dragged down UK domestic stocks.  The European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.6% after soaring to record highs in the previous session. The biggest weak spot was consumer goods giant Unilever. Its shares tumbled 6%, on course for their biggest percentage drop since July 2015, after the company warned that 2019 sales would grow less than it had expected, citing tough trading conditions in West Africa and a slowdown in south Asia. Europe’s personal and household goods sector fell 2.1%, the most among regional subsectors.

“With Unilever, it’s a combination of technical breakdown on the charts, you’ve got the warning and the time of the warning is not ideal because the markets have already been rotating out of big UK defensive names,” Mark Taylor, sales trader at Mirabaud Securities. Taylor, however, suggested Tuesday’s broader market moves were “just reassessing some of the outsized moves that we’ve seen in the last few days.”

Elsewhere, European suppliers to Boeing declined after the U.S. company confirmed it would suspend production of its grounded 737 Max jet in January. Boeing European suppliers include Safran, -4.1%, Senior, -5.9%, BAE Systems, -1.6%, Rolls-Royce, -1.3%, Meggitt, -0.5%, while Boeing rival Airbus gained as much as 1.7% in Paris, up 0.5% in early trading.

U.K. shares were also volatile, and sterling sank the most since July versus the euro, tumbling below 1.32 vs the USD after newly elected Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposed a legal change that revived the chances of a no-deal Brexit. Earlier in Asia, a benchmark stock gauge rose to the highest level since mid-2018. European government bonds drifted higher. The dollar advanced against most of its biggest peers.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained after U.S. equities reached new highs amid optimism over trade talks between the world’s two largest economies. The region’s benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.9% to its highest level since June 2018, led by shares in previously beaten-down markets like South Korea and Hong Kong. The Kospi index jumped to a seven-month high as semiconductor companies rallied. India’s Sensex headed for a record close. Yet, some warning signs are emerging in the region for technical traders. The 14-day relative strength index for Asia’s benchmark index has surpassed 70, entering overbought territory.

An index of emerging-market stocks also climbed to its highest level since June 2018, while currencies and bonds rallied as the positive momentum from the phase-one trade deal reverberated through markets. The MSCI equity index rose as much as 1.3%, the third time this month it has exceeded a gain of 1%. The currency gauge was at its best level in five months on a closing basis, and a Bloomberg Barclays index of local-currency bonds advanced for a fourth day to an all-time high.

We are in danger of peak optimism because we don’t have a trade deal signed and there are still some things that can go wrong,” Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said. “There is this general euphoria because economic policy uncertainty has come down, but I do think it could lead to frothy markets that could be made vulnerable if something goes wrong.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for the first day in three as the greenback traded stronger against all G-10 peers and the 10-year Treasury yield edged lower; euro bulls look for fresh impetus to challenge cycle highs while sterling meets renewed selling interest. The pound plunged more than 1%, briefly erasing all gains since the U.K. election exit poll, and gilts rallied as Prime Minister Boris Johnson looked to change the law to guarantee the Brexit transition phase is not extended beyond the end of 2020.  ITV’s Peston tweeted that PM Johnson is to change the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to put into law that transition arrangements with EU, during which UK is in effect non-voting member of EU, must end 31 Dec 2020, which he noted will be seen as increasing the risk of delayed no-deal Brexit.

Risk-sensitive Antipodean and Scandinavian currencies followed the pound lower; Aussie was also weighed down by a lack of any buoyant commentary in Reserve Bank of Australia’s December meeting minutes.  South Korea’s won led gains, while the Turkish lira remained under pressure after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to close two NATO bases in a spat with the U.S.

In commodities, West Texas-grade oil held near a three-month high. Looking ahead, tonight’s weekly API report is expected to show crude stocks declining by 1.75mln barrels over the last week, while in terms of products, gasoline stocks are forecast to build by 2mln barrels and distillates to draw by 500k barrels. Elsewhere, spot gold has seen some support in decent trade which coincided with downside in stocks. The yellow metal sees modest intraday gains but remains below recent resistance at USD 1480/oz. Palladium surged through $2,000 an ounce to a record, though it went on to erase the move and edge lower. Copper prices remain rangebound around the USD 2.80/lb, although modest downside in the red metal coincided with the release of China’s refined copper output which rose 19.6% Y/Y, hitting record highs. Finally, Dalian iron ore declined almost 3.0%, slipping for a second straight session amid rising shipments from large miners – Australian and Brazilian shipments rose 22.15mln tonnes last week, +462k tonnes W/W.

Looking at the day ahead, US releases include November’s housing starts, building permits, industrial production and capacity utilisation, along with October’s job openings data. Central bank speakers tomorrow include the ECB’s Rehn, Kazimir and Lane, the Fed’s Kaplan and Rosengren, and the BoE’s Carney.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.06% to 3,192.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 415.46
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 170.29
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 548.74
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 24,066.12
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,747.20
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 27,843.71
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 3,022.42
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 41,311.07
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.04% to 6,847.28
  • Kospi up 1.3% to 2,195.68
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to -0.28%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1142
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $65.17/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.5 bps to 1.125%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.418%
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $65.17/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,477.70
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 97.23

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Boris Johnson will change the law to ensure the Brexit transition phase is not extended, setting up a new cliff-edge for a no-deal split with the European Union at the end of 2020. The planned legislation will include legal text to prevent the government extending the transition period, even if no new trade terms have been secured in time, an official said
  • Governments are getting set to cash in on a booming market in green bonds—debt that funds projects with environmental benefits. Fueled by the growing awareness that more radical action has to be done to combat climate change, and by the need to fund it, Europe is taking the lead
  • The stalemate between Emmanuel Macron’s government and labor unions deepened as France headed into a third week of transport strikes over the president’s effort to reform the country’s pension system, threatening further chaos during the busy holiday season
  • Escalating protests this year have led to about $5 billion being pulled from investment funds in Hong Kong — raising the risk that strain in the Asian financial hub could spread to other parts of the world, according to the Bank of England’s latest financial stability report
  • U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Turkey’s threats to close two critical NATO installations are raising questions about its commitment to the military alliance
  • ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said the outlook for inflation in the euro area is very subdued and the rate is “falling clearly below ECB target in coming years”
  • ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau says predictability of monetary policy is a powerful element and he is expects rates to remain at current low levels for a while

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region took mild impetus from the gains on Wall St where all major indices notched fresh record highs once again due to the recent trade developments and in which desks noted a large equity buy program helping spur the pre-Christmas rally. ASX 200 (Unch.) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) both opened higher but with the advances in Australia later retraced amid weakness in financials and Westpac shares after APRA announced it is launching an investigation related to AUSTRAC breeches and doubled its capital requirement add-ons for the big 4 lender to AUD 1bln, while upside in Tokyo was also restricted by a pullback in JPY-crosses. Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.3%) rallied due to trade optimism and after local press reports suggested the potential for 2 targeted RRR cuts by the PBoC next year, although both were initially kept tepid by continued PBoC liquidity inaction and as China remained tight-lipped regarding agriculture purchase commitments. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued after spillover selling from USTs, with demand dampened by gains in stocks and after the 20yr JGB auction which pointed to showed results across all metrics.

Top Asian News

  • Malaysia Reaches Deal to Restart $34 Billion Ex-1MDB Project
  • India’s State-Backed Bonds Take China Alarm in Their Stride
  • Hong Kong’s Economy Limps Into 2020 With Fate Tied to Protests
  • Pakistan Court Orders Death to Ex-Military Ruler Musharraf

A mostly downbeat session for European equities thus far following on from a somewhat optimism APAC session, which saw Chinese bourses outperform on trade optimism and fresh-record tailwinds State-side. Europe’s bellwether – Euro Stoxx 50 (-0.7%) is largely weighed on by heavyweight Unilever (-5.8%) whose shares slumped amid a profit warning, with the company citing “challenges in certain markets”. Thus, the consumer staples sector (-1.7%) is seeing significant underperformance vs. its peers. DAX (-0.9%) underperforms vs the regions with a bulk of the losses attributed to downside in SAP (-3.5%) in light of a negative broker move at BofA. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 (Unch) attempts to balance downside in Sterling with more a pronounced risk of a cliff-edge Brexit – after reports that PM Johnson is attempting to outlaw another extension beyond Dec 2020. UK Homebuilders have reverse a bulk of their post-election poll gains whilst banks mostly fail to benefit from BoE’s stress test green-light, which saw HSBC (+0.9%), Barclays (-3.2%), Lloyds (-4.7%), RBS (-2.0%) and Standard Chartered (+1.0%) all pass – albeit HSBC and Standard Chartered are less exposed to the UK given their overseas operations. Elsewhere, Airbus (+0.5%) benefits following Boeing’s (-1.3% pre-market) announcement that it is to freeze 737 Max production in January. That said, aero supplier Safran (-3.6%) alongside airline names suffer: easyJet (-4.3%), Ryanair (-3.1%), IAG (-2.5%), with the latter side-lining news that British Airways pilots agreed to back a revised pay off to end strikes. Last but not least, FTSE-listed NMC Health (-14.9%) plumbed the depth after activist short-seller Muddy Waters noted of serious doubt regarding the company’s financial statement, its asset values, cash balance, reported profits, and reported debt levels.

Top European News

  • U.K. Wages Slow, Vacancies Fall in Brexit-Hit Labor Market
  • Lloyds Had Most Disappointing BoE Stress Test Result: Citi
  • Germany Takes Fight Over Opal Gas Pipeline to EU Top Court
  • Uzbekistan Targets $6 Billion From IPOs and Bond Offerings

In FX, sterling has given up more of its GE-related gains as attention switches back to Brexit and the risk that a no deal departure from the EU could yet unfold if UK PM Johnson manages to prevent parliament from seeking an extension to the transition phase alongside the WAB motion that will be presented to the HoC on Friday. Cable retreated further from last week’s lofty 1.3500+ pinnacle through Monday’s session low before tripping stops on a break of 1.3200 and testing post-election result/exit poll levels circa 1.3159 that roughly align with a Fib retracement of the whole relief rally from voting day trough to peak. Meanwhile, Eur/Gbp extended its rebound to around 0.8470 from close to 0.8300 at one stage yesterday and under the big figure when the Pound hit aforementioned heights after the landslide Tory win. Note, some solace via the latest jobs data even though the claimant count and headline AWE were both weaker than forecast.

  • AUD/NZD/CAD – The Aussie is underperforming on the back of latest RBA minutes underscoring a willingness to ease further if necessary and flagging a full assessment of the situation at the next policy meeting in February 2020. Aud/Usd has recoiled to just below 0.6850 and Aud/Nzd is back under 1.0450 as Nzd/Usd holds up a tad better between 0.6570-0.6605 in wake of another improvement in NZ business sentiment and expections on top of the Kiwi supportive cross flows. Elsewhere, the Loonie has lost momentum and slipped through 1.3150 ahead of Canadian manufacturing sales, and as the Greenback attempts to form a base, albeit at the expense of others, with the DXY hovering above 97.000 in a 97.058-303 band.
  • EUR/CHF/JPY – All narrowly mixed against the Dollar, as Eur/Usd meanders from 1.1130 to 1.1160, Usd/Chf idles within 0.9820-45 extremes and Usd/Jpy remains anchored to 108.50 with rallies confined or capped ahead of early month highs/near double top resistance.
  • NOK/SEK – Not quite all change, but a distinct turnaround in fortunes for the Scandi Crowns that started Norges Bank and Riksbank meeting week in the ascendency. Eur/Nok and Eur/Sek have both bounced after testing, but not breaking chart support back towards 10.0900 and 10.4800 respectively.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are contained within tight intraday ranges of around USD 0.5/bbl with little to report by way of fresh fundamental catalysts for the complex. Brexit-risk aside, the broader sentiment in the markets remains positive given the developments in the US-Sino sphere. ING notes that constructive energy fundamentals – including declining inventories – is reflected in the ICE Brent time spread, but they continue to meander deep in backwardation. “We expect downward pressure on oil prices to resume as we move into 1H20”, ING says, but the forecast remains contingent on the Phase One trade deal details alongside OPEC+ action to tackle surplus. In terms of commentary, JP Morgan raised Brent crude 2020 price forecast to USD 64.50/bbl from USD 59.00/bbl but sees prices in 2021 at USD 61.50/bbl, while it expects WTI prices averaging USD 60.00/bbl in 2020 and USD 57.50/bbl in 2021. Looking ahead, tonight’s weekly API report is expected to show crude stocks declining by 1.75mln barrels over the last week, whilst in terms of products, gasoline stocks are forecast to build by 2mln barrels and distillates to draw by 500k barrels. Elsewhere, spot gold has seen some support in decent trade which coincided with downside in stocks. The yellow metal sees modest intraday gains but remains below recent resistance at USD 1480/oz. Copper prices remain rangebound around the USD 2.80/lb, although modest downside in the red metal coincided with the release of China’s refined copper output which rose 19.6% Y/Y, hitting record highs. Finally, Dalian iron ore declined almost 3.0%, slipping for a second straight session amid rising shipments from large miners – Australian and Brazilian shipments rose 22.15mln tonnes last week, +462k tonnes W/W.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: U.S. Housing Starts, Nov., est. 1345k, prior 1314k; Building Permits, Nov., est. 1418k, prior 1461k
  • 9:15am: U.S. Industrial Production MoM, Nov., est. 0.8%, prior -0.8%;
    • Capacity Utilization, Nov., est. 77.4%, prior 76.7%
    • Manufacturing Production, Nov., est. 0.9%, prior -0.6%
  • 10am: U.S. JOLTs Job Openings, Oct., est. 7009, prior 7024

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For the third night in a row we tried to watch “The Irishman” on Netflix and for the third night in a row I dozed off but this time leaving only 20 mins to go. If you have to watch a film over 4 nights it’s either too long or you need to get more rest. I suspect in this case it’s the latter as it’s pretty gripping.

Yesterday there were more “booms” than a gangster movie as it was a day of multiple record highs, with even European equities getting in on the act as the STOXX 600 (+1.39%) saw its first record high since April 2015. It made me look back at the long-term graph and it’s stunning that last night’s level only puts it 4% above the high point in the pre-GFC years reached in June 2007. So a 12 and a half year journey of little progress outside of dividends. Over the same period the S&P 500 has more than doubled. Talking of the S&P 500, it ended the session up +0.71% at another record high (a bit less rare than European ones), as did the Dow Jones (+0.36%) and the NASDAQ (+0.91%), while the trade-sensitive Philadelphia semiconductor index outperformed to close up +0.96% – another record. The agreement of a Phase One trade deal and political clarity in the UK (and with it in the EU and with Brexit) continued to power the global rally.

However the big news overnight is that U.K. PM Johnson intends to change the law to guarantee that the transition phase on Brexit is not extended beyond the end of 2020. This has been reported by a number of media outlets and if true will be a jolt to those who believed that the PM will use his big majority to transition to a softer relationship with the EU. This will raise the stakes for negotiators on both sides to conclude a trade deal. However the EU have repeatedly made it clear that a comprehensive agreement is likely to take years. So the probability of a harder bare bones deal or a cliff edge Brexit in 12 months time has gone up this morning. Sterling dipped around -0.75% on the news but has rallied back a bit and is currently -0.26% against the US dollar.

In Asia overnight, equity markets are reaching fresh recent highs too, with the Nikkei up +0.47% and on track for its highest close since October 2018. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+1.12%), Shanghai Comp (+0.94%), and the Kospi (+1.10%) are also trading higher this morning, with S&P 500 futures up a little.

Other risk assets performed strongly as well yesterday, with Brent crude up +0.3% at a three-month high. With the market fleeing safe assets, sovereign debt sold off yesterday, with 10yr Treasury yields up +4.7bps to 1.87%, with the 2s10s curve steepening by +2.7bps. It was a similar story in Europe, with bunds (+1.5bps), OATs (+1.5bps) and gilts (+3.2bps) also selling off.

UK equities continued to surge following last week’s election, with the FTSE 100 up +2.25% in its best daily performance of 2019. In terms of what to expect now that the election is over, the Queen’s Speech will take place on Thursday, which is where the Queen outlines the government’s programme for the coming session of Parliament. Then on Friday, the Brexit legislation will be returning to Parliament, with the government aiming to ensure it passes so that the UK can leave the EU by the end of January.

In spite of the buoyant market sentiment created by the optimism on trade and Brexit, the PMIs out yesterday showed that it won’t be all plain sailing for the economy moving into next year. For the Eurozone, the composite PMI remained at 50.6 (vs. 50.7 expected) for a 3rd consecutive month, with the manufacturing PMI falling to 45.9 (vs. 47.3 expected), the 11th month in a row that the Eurozone manufacturing PMI has been in contractionary territory. In Germany, the composite PMI remained at 49.4 (vs. 49.9 expected), again with a further deterioration in the manufacturing PMI to 43.3 (vs. 44.6 expected). In France, things were somewhat better than in Germany, with the composite PMI at 52.0 (as expected), though this was still at a 3-month low. The notable figures were from the UK, where the composite PMI fell to 48.5 (vs. 49.5 expected), the lowest level since July 2016 in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum, with both the services and manufacturing PMIs in contractionary territory, at 49 and 47.4 respectively. Indeed, the UK manufacturing reading was the worst since July 2012. The pound, which had rallied nearly +0.75% in the Asian session, gave it all back soon after the release and highlighted the challenges ahead for Mr Johnson. The hope will be that there will be a post-election bounce in the PMIs now but the overnight news adds to the uncertainty again.

Moving to the US data now, the preliminary reading for the composite PMI rose to 52.2, a 5-month high, while the NAHB’s housing market index rose to 76 in December (vs. 70 expected), its highest level since June 1999. And although the Empire State manufacturing survey came in slightly below expectations at 3.5 (vs. 4.0 expected), the reading of business conditions 6 months ahead rose to 29.8, a 5-month high.

Speaking of the US, our US economics team published their 2020 outlook over the weekend. In terms of the highlights, they upgraded 2020 growth by 0.2pp to 2.0%, mostly on more resilient consumer spending in the first half of the year. Capex should remain muted, however, as election uncertainty weighs even if trade tensions dissipate. The team now expect core PCE inflation to remain below the Fed’s target through 2022. This is a critical point given the conclusion to the Fed’s policy review in mid-2020, where they expect a dovish renaissance to the Committee’s reaction function. In particular, the team now sees a commitment to avoid the disinflationary fates of other major developed market economies pushing the Fed to cut rates by another 50bps in 2021, even in the presence of near-record low unemployment. For more details see their full outlook here: “A less than roaring start to the ‘20s and a renaissance in Fed policy”.

Yesterday we also released our latest Podzept, DB’s podcast series. In this edition we have a global economic update from Chief Economist Torsten Slok, where he discusses some of the highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, including the trade war, the Federal Reserve, and next year’s presidential election in the US and associated risks. Click here to take a further look or go straight to your usual podcast providers.

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights for markets to watch out for include the UK employment data, featuring the unemployment rate and average weekly earnings, along with the CBI’s industrial trends survey for December. From the Euro Area, we’ll get the trade balance for October, while the US releases include November’s housing starts, building permits, industrial production and capacity utilisation, along with October’s job openings data. Central bank speakers tomorrow include the ECB’s Rehn, Kazimir and Lane, the Fed’s Kaplan and Rosengren, and the BoE’s Carney.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.03 POINTS OR 1.27%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 335.62 POINTS OR 1.22%   /The Nikkei closed UP 113.77 POINTS OR 0.47%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .03%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9964 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9964 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9954 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Softbank is a very large Japanese bank.  We now have Japanese and other banks having second thoughts about lending money to it due the WeWork debacle

(zerohedge)

Japan’s Biggest Banks Are Having Second Thoughts About Lending To SoftBank After WeWork Debacle

If we’ve learned anything about Masayoshi Son, the eccentric Japanese billionaire behind SoftBank, over the past few months, it’s that Japan’s most famous business clearly has trouble differentiating between luck and skill.

This, as Professor Scott Galloway explained yesterday, is a common problem in the world of Venture Capital: In Galloway’s estimation, many investors exemplify what’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect. This posits that dumb people are too stupid to know they are dumb, allowing them to remain colossally overconfident. The effect also includes people who mistakenly believe their expertise in one area translates into expertise in another area or all areas.

This is probably one of the many concerns running through the minds of Son’s longtime Japanese bankers, as they reevaluate their ties with one of their most important clients, Bloomberg reports.

And who can blame them? All together, Japan’s biggest banks have billions of dollars in exposure to SoftBank. And now, the firm is returning to its financiers for another round of lending, but this time, it’s coming in the wake of the company’s most embarrassing year on record.

 

SoftBank has had an almost singularly terrible year. The company has had problems with more than a dozen investments, with the biggest flops being WeWork and Uber, though WeWork, which is now the subject of an anxiety-provoking turnaround plan following an emergency lifeline loan from its biggest backer for more than $6 billion, stands out as a particularly massive and predictable disaster (if only Masa read Zero Hedge…).

There’s now plenty of evidence to suggest that SoftBank’s investment process is deeply flawed. Even Son himself has said he decided to invest after talking to CEO/Svengali Adam Neumann for 20 minutes. He committed billions of dollars of both SoftBank money and money from his now infamous Vision Fund. After one 20 minute face-to-face meeting. How is that even legal?

SoftBank’s latest fuck-up hit the financial press in Monday’s edition of the Financial Times. Oyo, one of SoftBank’s biggest bets, is facing backlash in China, where a letter signed last week by 172 hoteliers across China accuses the company of imposing “unclear bills and arbitrary deductions”and threatens legal action if their complaints aren’t swiftly resolved, which sounds…ominous.

(This chart courtesy of Barron’s)

That’s a huge problem, because Oyo’s valuation jump in a funding round closed over the summer helped provide some respite to SoftBank as Oyo’s valuation doubled to $10 billion.

Masayoshi Son

And after investors balked at WeWork’s IPO because of the hilariously non-standard governance issues, Neumann, who tried to engineer things so that his family would control WeWork for “the next 300 years” was pushed out with a massive golden parachute, which was like adding insult to injury.

The banks that SoftBank has approached for its next big loan would see their total exposure to SoftBank climb to $15 billion if they decided to back the deal. These banks include most of the usual suspects: Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumimoto and Mizuho.

SoftBank reportedly met with all three on Nov. 26 to discuss the credit facility, according to BBG’s anonymous sources. WeWork executives reportedly went over their plans to save the company with their bankers. This is important, as several bankers have reportedly told BBG that they would be hesitant to continue lending to SoftBank unless it can develop a credible turnaround strategy for WeWork.

Among all the SoftBank investing blunders that led to this, the near-collapse of WeWork looms largest in bankers’ imaginations.

“Japanese banks have provided loans in part because of Son’s management power and capability,” said Kazumi Tanaka, an analyst at DZH Financial Research Inc. “The WeWork issue has chipped away at one of the elements that convinced them” to back Son, Tanaka said.

At the end of the day, we doubt the Japanese banks will pass on SoftBank, and this is why: Son is still one of the biggest fish in Asia’s second-largest economy.

But just in case, it appears Masa is playing it safe by beginning to diversify his banking business across the Pacific. To wit, Goldman is reportedly arranging a $1.75 billion line of credit as part of WeWork’s rescue package. SoftBank is listed as the primary borrower in that deal, and who knows? Perhaps Goldman is betting on Son and is trying to steal his business away from its Japanese rivals.

Another reason it will be difficult for Son’s bankers to pass up another loan: With the Japanese economy as starved for yield as it is, SoftBank’s credit rating is BB+, which is a notch below investment grade. In other words, “Japanese banks may be getting more concerned, but they still have to provide more support,” said business school professor and former investment banker Michiaki Tanaka.

3 C CHINA

HONG KONG
Hong Kong’s airport passenger volumes crash to decade lows due to the socio-economic climate in the city
(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Airport Passenger Volumes Crash To Decade Lows Amid Socio-Economic Chaos 

Who in their right mind would travel to Hong Kong these days? Six months of violent protests and a deepening recession have transformed the city into a chaotic mess. Mainland Chinese, corporations, and tourists are abandoning the city, reflected in the latest plunge of airport passenger and air freight data.

Hong Kong International Airport reported on Sunday that passenger volume in November was down 16.2% Y/Y, the most significant decline since 2009, when volumes fell 18.7% Y/Y, reported Reuters, citing a Civil Aviation Department statement.

In the last three months, passenger volume fell 12% Y/Y as violent protests have kept many away from the city.

The statement said some of the most significant drops in passenger volumes came from mainland China and Southeast Asia.

 

Hong Kong International Airport is the largest airport in the world for cargo and is used as an economic bellwether for the global economy.

With passenger volumes slipping and air fright cargo shipments dropping, the global economy could stumble into 2020.

The statement said flight trips dropped 8.3% Y/Y in November. Cargo throughput for the month fell 3.4% Y/Y to 450,000 tons.

The air freight slowdown has prompted airport officials to offer a 20% reduction to terminal handling fees for freight forwarders, in a bid to stoke new business.

The Air International Air Transport Association (IATA) said airlines could start slashing passenger capacity in 1Q20. If the passenger downturn persists through spring, commercial flights could be cut by summer.

The social unrest has been ongoing for six months and has forced the city’s economy into a recession, affecting its largest sector: tourism.

Business receipts of tourism, convention, and exhibition services plunged 27.8% Y/Y in Q3, the worst drop since the SARS epidemic in 2003.

With no end in sight for the protests and a recession that is expected to deepen into 1H20, the time to rebuild business confidence in the city could take years, or in some respects, never — since China now wants to make Macau its next Hong Kong.

END

China/USA

Both countries are using creative ways for China to meet its Phase One targets with purchasing goods from the USA

(zerohedge))

Non-GAAP Trade: To Hit Phase One Targets, China May Count Hong Kong Trade, Buy Ethanol

New details are emerging how China could “increase” imports from the US to about $200 billion over the next several years to comply with the Phase One trade deal, reported Bloomberg.

As a reminder, Trump’s “Phase One” deal which was “concluded” last week, has yet to be officially signed, and is expected be finalized (again) next month. Meanwhile, sources have said Beijing and Washington are working on creative ways to boost trade numbers. One way is to restart purchases of ethanol that would add around $10 billion per year in goods transshipped from the US to China. 

Currently, the US doesn’t count shipments that arrive in Hong Kong then loaded on train or truck to the mainland as trade with China. The new plan would reroute shipments from the US to Hong Kong to mainland ports to boost trade figures.

In other words, we may be about to get another “adjusted” item to the lexicon of fudged financial terms: Non-GAAP Trade.

China is also expected to grant more waivers for importers of US farm products to bypass tariffs. China in November lifted a ban on US poultry shipments, with estimated exports worth $1 billion

The ‘non-GAAP’ adjustments would be critical to hit the deal targets. As we noted before, the former USDA Chief Economist and USTR ag negotiator, Joe Glauber, has been “skeptical about the size of the Phase 1 deal” (a detailed explanation of why this is impossible can be read in the following thread).

JoeGlauber–IFPRI@JoeGlauber1

1. So here is why I am skeptical about the size of the Phase 1 deal. US ag exports to China in FY 2017 were about $21.8 billion. Soybean exports accounted for $14.6 billion.

View image on Twitter

Shi Yinhong, a Chinese government adviser and international relations professor at Renmin University, echoed our own concerns and told the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that Beijing would find it challenging to hit the hard targets described by the US.

“For China, committing to and carrying out the phase one agreement is a huge challenge,” Shi said. “China will need to buy something like US$300 billion worth of US products in the next two years and lots more US agricultural goods. Does China need that amount of US soybeans?”

The proposed deal is 86 pages long, could be signed as early as next month by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He, but while Trump touts the deal as ‘totally done’ — the text of the agreement has yet to be translated.

There’s no question that China could increase purchases of US ag and other goods in the years ahead. Still, the damage inflicted by Trump’s economic war on China has already forced the country to diversify away from the US. For example, China has ramped up ag purchases with Argentina and Brazil, a move last month that infuriated Trump as he threatened both countries with tariffs.

China’s diversification trend comes at a time when bilateral trade between both countries is in decline.

Jia Qingguo, associate dean of international studies at Peking University, told the SCMP, “It is better to have a deal than no deal.” he added. “Just don’t have much expectation that it will significantly help alleviate tensions.”

Given the execution risks going forward and the lack of clarity on the trade deal and unrealistic hard targets, it seems that China will have trouble living up to any future agreement, and the real question is how long will the Phase One deal exist before it is scrapped.

 end
China/USA
USA is now set to finalize new rules to limit the exports of high tech technology to China and Russia
(zerohedge)

US Set To Finalize New Rules To Limit High-Tech Exports To China

Officials in the Trump administration are putting the final touches on a new set of rules that would limit exports of advanced technology to adversaries like China and Russia, reported Reuters.

A document, first seen by Reuters, outlines how the Commerce Department is finalizing the first batch of five rules covering products like quantum computing and 3-D printing technologies. The basis behind the new regulations is that if enemy powers were to get their hands on these technologies, it would jeopardize US national security.

“Based on their titles, the rules appear to be narrowly tailored to address specific national security issues, which should go a long way to calming the nerves of those in industry concerned that the administration would impose controls over broad categories of widely available technologies,” Kevin Wolf, former assistant secretary of commerce for export administration, told Reuters.

Reuters noted that the documented made no mention of a timeline of when the rules would be implemented, nor did it give specifics of which countries would be blacklisted.

After the first batch of rules, the Commerce Department could expand the list of high-tech products by regulating sales and increasing the blacklisting of countries. The rules would establish an even playing field for US companies. The rules could go into effect by 2H21.

A sixth rule that would regulate artificial intelligence could go into effect in the near term. As we’ve mentioned before, the US is cracking down on China when it comes to chip exports, due to the latest news of an artificial intelligence race that has broken out between both countries.

Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer has pressed the Commerce Department to approve the new rules immediately and protect the country’s prized technology from being ripped off by the rest of the world.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton told Reuters in a statement that he was “disappointed at the lack of political will” at the Commerce Department for not having the drive to implement the new rules quickly.

“While bureaucrats and industry shills twiddle their thumbs, the Chinese Communist Party continues to purchase sensitive US technologies with clear military applications,” he said. “I will be digging deep into the Commerce Department’s actions.”

The document specifies that regulating 3-D printing for explosives is another rule that is pending approval.

Regulations on transistor technology, used to manufacture semiconductors, was another rule pending review that could limit exports of high-tech chips to certain countries.

Two other rules include chemicals used to make nerve gas and single-use chambers for chemical reactions, the document said.

Reuters’ reporting on the document didn’t explicitly state if China was the target of these new rules — but as we’ve reported before, a technology war and decoupling of both economies are well underway. So it makes sense why the US would want to limit technology exports to stop China’s ascension from becoming a global superpower by 2030. Basically, the US is trying to starve China of technology — this is a cunning plan.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Mish Shedlock correctly states that it is going to be easier for UK to break with the UK.  Johnson is in the driver’s seat

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Brexit Phase 2 Negotiations Far Easier Than Most Think

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

With a majority of 80, Johnson can go for a hard deal or a soft deal. Either way, the EU has to agree. Will it be easy?

Brexit Exit – What’s Ahead?

 

The Conversation asks What kind of Brexit Will Britain Now ‘Get Done’.

Beyond his signature policy on Brexit, it is difficult to say with certainty what Johnson will offer. More than any other recent politician, Johnson’s rise to the top of British politics was fuelled by personal ambition, not ideology. His gaffes, his colourful (sometimes insensitive) language and his chaotic personal life have all drawn attention.

Johnson’s surfeit of ambition has also led to him being seen as untrustworthy and unprincipled, and regularly denounced by opponents as a liar.

Now that he is back in office with a majority, Johnson will have the numbers in parliament to pursue his own policy direction. The details of that direction are unclear, with few clues available in the Conservatives’ safety-first manifesto.

“Get Brexit done” gave Johnson a mission, a goal to achieve, a rallying cry to mobilise supporters to win first the Tory leadership and then the general election. But with the premiership secured and Brexit done, what does Johnson want to happen next?

Die in a Ditch, Yet Again

The New York Times says “Few expect the negotiations on the country’s future trade and security relationship with the bloc to be quick or easy.”

Will this be the Mr. Johnson who vowed once “to die in a ditch” or the Mr. Johnson who reached his draft Brexit deal with Brussels last October by abandoning his red lines over Northern Ireland?

Mr. Johnson may favor a hard deadline, but that will put Britain, which will soon be negotiating from outside rather than inside the European Union, into a weaker position, argued Fabian Zuleeg, head of the European Policy Center, a research institution based in Brussels. The risk is that a quick trade negotiation, considered almost a contradiction in terms by trade experts, could fail, bringing Britain and Brussels back to the prospect of a “no deal” Brexit.

Consensus Nonsense

Those articles represent the overwhelming consensus nonsense.

Nigel Farage, and others in the Brexit Party also fear the worst.

The Brexit party expects Johnson will give up fishing rights and keep the UK in a customs Union for a decade.

I suggest there are two governing political rules that negate both of those ideas.

Mish’s Two Rules of Politics

  1. Politicians are liars and cannot be trusted.
  2. Politicians will actually do what they say if they believe it is in their best interest to do so.

Those two rules seem contradictory, but the key idea is rule two trumps rule one.

Let’s apply those rules in a number of areas.

Fishing Policy

No doubt the EU will want to include fishing rights in the negotiations. Farage knows this and he is suspicious. He shouldn’t be.

Why? It’s clear rule two applies.

Why does rule two apply? Scotland

The SNP wants to break the UK and join the EU. But Scotland also wants control over fishing policy, something the EU would never grant.

As long as Johnson does not give up fishing rights, he can drive a huge wedge right through Nicola Sturgeon’s platform.

Conclusion: There is no way in hell Johnson will give up fishing rights.

Customs Union Extension

Johnson said he will reach a deal with the EU in a year. That’s ambitious but possible.

The Brexit Party and others will point to Johnson throwing DUP under the bus and “die in a ditch”.

Ho. Hum.

It was to Johnson’s advantage to lie on those. So he did. Rule 1 applied.

But now rule 2 applies.

Perhaps Johnson goes for some small 3- to 6-month extension, but outside of that it would be politically damaging to reverse course.

So, he won’t.

Trade Deal

Fabian Zuleeg, head of the European Policy Center, fears a “no deal” Brexit.

That’s absurd because we are 100% guaranteed to have a deal. But let’s assume he means that further negotiations collapse and there is not even a basic WTO agreement.

That is what Farage wants but no one else.

In this case, rule 2 applies. Expect both the UK and EU to act in their best interests. There will be red lines, but it is in the interests of both sides to reach a deal.

Ironically, it is likely to be the EU, not Johnson breaking the most positions.

Johnson may have to give in on some freedom of movement issues, but if so, I suspect whatever he negotiates to be in the UK’s best interests.

Deal In 12 Months?

Yes, or 16, or 18. What does it matter?

The WTO allows for “temporary” deals with up to 10 years to finalize them.

So, no, there will not be a final deal in 18 months. So what? There will be a basic deal in that time frame, and possibly within a year.

And as long as Johnson does not extend the customs union beyond 3 months, he will have fulfilled his mission even if some nitpickers call him a liar for it.

There may be a couple of small points Farage will moan about but it won’t be anything major on fishing policy, the European Court of Justice (ECJ), or a long-term customs union extension.

What About Ireland?

Johnson was asked in one of the debates if the union was more important than Brexit.

I was surprised by the speed of his lie. He instantaneously replied something along the lines of “absolutely”.

What a lie.

Political forces are now in play for the unification of Ireland. The deal that Johnson worked out with Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s Taoiseach (Prime Minister), guaranteed further pressure in Irish unification.

What happened?

  1. Johnson made Varadkar happy enough for the Taoiseach to back Johnson’s deal.
  2. In turn, the EU did not want to throw Ireland under the bus.

Rule one applied. It was in Johnson’s best interest to lie. So he did. The key point however, is point number two.

July 10 Flashback

I made a statement many times regarding “the bus”, and most people thought I was nuts.

For one key example, please recall my July 10 post Today’s Brexit Non-News: The “Precious” Irish Backstop Must be Defended.

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President candidate, says she will not reopen Brexit talks.

I commented “The Guardian story is either non-news or fake news.”

Simply put, I accurately called the headline story a lie. I was proven correct.

Here were the reasons I listed the EU would negotiate (emphasis now added).

  1. Ireland will be in a world of hurt. The estimated first-year to Irish GDP is 4.1%. It would be unlike the EU to purposely throw another EU member under the bus.
  2. European exports to the UK will crash.
  3. Germany is already smarting from a global slowdown. Merkel is no longer call the shots, but she is open to talks.
  4. If the EU will not budge at all, Johnson may apply more pressure by saying he will not even pay the breakup fee. That extra money the EU desperately needs for its budget or it will have to raise taxes or cut expense.

Saying vs Doing (What I said then)

We know what politicians say they will do, but we do not know what they will really do when the time comes. The EU never believed May would walk. In about one month the EU is likely to find out Johnson really intends to walk. At that point, the ballgame changes.

 

Ballgame Changed

Despite enormous pressure from UK parliament Remainers, Johnson managed to change the ballgame.

Very few believed he would succeed. I was one of those few.

It came down to one thing: It would be unlike the EU to purposely throw another EU member under the bus.

Once Johnson was willing to throw DUP under the bus, the ballgame changed for the EU as well.

Lies Exposed

  1. EU will not reopen the Withdrawal Agreement.
  2. EU will no reopen the Political Declaration.
  3. Johnson: The Union is more important than Brexit.

Proper Application of the Rules

To figure out what is most likely from here, just apply my rules.

  1. Politicians are liars and cannot be trusted.
  2. Politicians will actually do what they say if they believe it is in their best interest to do so.

The first step in figuring out what politicians are most likely to do, is to figure out if they really believe what they say is in their best interest.

If you conclude otherwise, then by all means, fall back on rule number one.

Sometimes such analysis is difficult. In this case, I believe it’s pretty easy, especially regarding fishing rights.

Another Simple Rule

We are where we a based on another simple rule: “The EU will not purposely throw another EU member under the bus.”

The EU has many rules, but it will bend or break them as necessary to accommodate that rule if possible.

With that in mind, note that Germany will suffer the most if the UK decides to walk.

Thus, I fully expect the EU to accommodate Germany in the trade discussions. The most likely way is a basic agreement within a year or so that all sides can live with.

Both sides want to put Brexit aside as quickly as possible. So, they will.

It cannot be totally one-sided so Johnson will have to give in on some minor face-saving points.

See how easy this is? Just apply the rules.

The hard part, of course, is figuring out what the rules are. Hopefully, this post helps.

END
The pound tumbles after Johnson reports that he is outlawing any further Brexit delays
(zeorhedge)

Pound Tumbles On Report PM Johnson Plans To Outlaw Further Brexit Delays

Just three days after the biggest one-day surge in cable since 2016 following the crushing Conservative defeat of Labour, the pound has lost all post-election gains, plunging more than 1% on Tuesday…

 

 

… on overnight news that U.K. PM Johnson intends to change the law to guarantee that the transition phase on Brexit is not extended beyond the end of 2020. As ITV’s Peston tweeted, Johnson is to change the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to put into law that transition arrangements with EU, during which UK is in effect non-voting member of EU, must end 31 Dec 2020, which he noted will be seen as increasing the risk of delayed no-deal Brexit.

The news, which was repeated by a number of media outlets, would be a jolt to those who believed that the PM will use his big majority to transition to a softer relationship with the EU, as DB notes. This will raise the stakes for negotiators on both sides to conclude a trade deal. However the EU have repeatedly made it clear that a comprehensive agreement is likely to take years.

UBS chief economist Paul Donovan offered a slightly less draconian take :

UK Prime Minister Johnson is vowing to make the interminably tedious Brexit process terminable. Final exit by the end of 2020 will be put in law. Sterling fell in response. Is this really the end? No. The government can change laws if it wants. If the UK does leave on schedule, there will still have to be post-exit negotiations.

In any case, the probability of a harder bare bones deal or a cliff edge Brexit in 12 months time has gone up this morning, in the process crushing all those cable bulls who went all in the British currency in the past few days now that so many experts predicted the pair would hit 1.40 in the coming days. Oops.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

A good Bellwether: Capesize shipping rates (large bulk shipping) plunges to a six month low

(zerohedge)

Capesize Shipping Rates Plunge To Six Month Low, Weighs Down Baltic Index

Another downward slide in dry bulk shipping known as Capesize — vessels with a capacity of more than 100,000 deadweight tons, has been seen on Monday morning with rates hitting six-month lows. The slide in Capesize rates has weighed on the overall Baltic Exchange index.

The Capesize index slid 4.9%, to 2,334, its lowest since June 21.

The Baltic index, which tracks rates for Capesize, Panamax and Supramax vessels that transport dry bulk commodities, dropped 3% on Monday.

The largest US-listed Capesize companies, Golden Ocean and Star Bulk, recently outlined demand issues for Capesize vessels in separate earnings calls in late November.

The plunge in Capesize rates is mainly a demand issue, both shippers warned, originating from Brazil, Australia, and China.

“The main drivers of Capesize rates are Chinese iron-ore imports from Australia and Brazil. Since the route from Brazil is triple the distance versus the trip from Australia, it soaks up three times as many Capes to carry the same volume,” said FreightWaves.

 

According to Birgitte Ringstad Vartdal, CEO of Golden Ocean, “at the start of the fourth quarter, it looks like [Brazilian iron-ore miner] Vale is struggling a bit with its production system and there has also been a lot of early rain in Brazil. Vale has reduced its guidance for the fourth quarter and has guided a moderate production level in the first quarter.”

“In the spot market, we see ships on the Australia-China route being fixed constantly, every day, but we see a lack of volume on the Brazil-China route,” she added, noting that this “should reduce the number of vessels that are willing to ballast toward Brazil.”

Persistent weakness in Capesize rates on specific shipping lanes to and from Brazil, Australia, and China, indicates that the global economy is still losing momentum and a giant rebound in which equity markets have already priced in might be fantasy. We don’t discount that the worldwide economy could stabilize in early 2020, but the idea of a massive rebound in economic growth is unlikely at the moment.

end

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1160 UP .0025 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY RED EXCEPT ITALY

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.61 UP 0.025 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3189   DOWN   0.0079  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020-//

USA/CAN 1.3168 UP .00053 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 25 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1160 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 335.62 POINTS OR 1.22%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,03%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT ITALY

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 335.62 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.03 POINTS OR 1.27%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 03% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 113.77  POINTS OR 0.47%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1478.60

silver:$17.06-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.86% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.28 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.10 UP 9 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.35% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,27 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 88 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.30% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.57% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1152  UP     .0016 or 16 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.51 DOWN .075 OR YEN UP 8  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3121 DOWN .0146 POUND DOWN 146  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 14 basis points to 1.3152

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9969    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9927  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8776 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.87 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.30 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.23 UP 21  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 6.23  0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 119.83 POINTS OR .89%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 23.40 POINTS 0.39%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 64.70 POINTS or 0.67%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 196.01 POINTS OR 0.45%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 60.88 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 66.02 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    62.40  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.07 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 7 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.30 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  60.90//

 

 

BRENT :  66.16

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.88..plus one basis point…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.31..plus two basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1147 ( UP 11   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.53 DOWN .053 (YEN UP 5 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.22 UP 21 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3118 DOWN 149  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8867

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.40   UP 0.07 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 7 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3165 DOWN 4 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9969  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9985 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.30%

 

The Dow closed UP 31.27 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 9.13 POINTS OR 0.10%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.29 CLOSED UP .15

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.898%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

“Extreme Greed” Trigger’d – Short-Squeeze Lifts Stocks To New Record Highs

“The only way is up…”

China continued to surge after the ‘deal…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed picture in Europe today with the FTSE tumbling along with DAX as Italy managed gains…

Source: Bloomberg

US markets were broadly higher led by Small Caps…

 

 

Since “Phase One” of the US-China deal was supposedly complete on Oct 11th, can you spot the odd one out?

 

Source: Bloomberg

All of which began when The Fed started expanding the balance sheet dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

Another day, another mega short squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals outperformed on the day but the gains were all at the open…

Source: Bloomberg

US equities seem a lot more excited about the trade deal than yuan…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets have compressed dramatically in the last few days…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher across the curve, marginally at the short-end and around 2bps at the long-end…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened back to pre-FOMC Minutes levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite President Trump’s exclamations this morning, the dollar closed marginally higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing the dollar back to unchanged on the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable erased all the post-election gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were clubbed like baby seals again today with altcoins notably underperforming Bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was the day’s big winner as Silver slumped along with copper and gold..

 

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices surged intraday extending gains after better than expected manufacturing production data (ahead of tonight’s API inventory data) testing within a tick of $61…

 

And as oil rallied, silver sank…

 

 

 

Finally, as a reminder, the S&P is up almost 28% YTD while earnings expectations have tumbled around 5%…

Source: Bloomberg

And the market – if that’s what you want to call it – has surged back to “extreme greed” once again…

Source: CNN

Thanks to The Fed only…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

USA single family building permits reach a 12 year high> Low interest rates are doing the trick

(zerohedge)

US Single-Family Building Permits Reach 12-Year High

After a big rebound in October, analysts expected a more mixed picture for November with starts expected to extend gains while permits are seen falling. However, the data was much more positive:

  • Housing Starts +3.2% MoM (vs +2.4% exp)
  • Building Permits +1.4% MoM (vs expectations of a 3.5% drop)

The second monthly rise in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Housing Starts rose 13.6% YoY – the most since May 2018…

Single Family Starts accelerated back near cycle highs and multi-family also rose in November.

And single-family permits hit 918k – the highest since August 2007…

Two of four regions posted a gain in starts, led by a jump in the South to the fastest pace since March 2007. Starts in the West also advanced.

All-in-all, very positive – corroborating other housing data, such as Homebuilder sentiment soaring to a 20-year high in December – as long as Powell keeps rates low.

The data indicate residential construction may add to fourth-quarter growth after contributing in the previous quarter for the first time since the end of 2017.

end

USA manufacturing rebounds in November with the car sector leading the way

(zerohedge)

US Manufacturing Rebounds In November, But Is Shrinking YoY

After notable weakness in October, analysts expected November Industrial Production to rebound healthily (echoing the PMIs) and it did, rising 1.1% MoM (above the 0.9% expected rebound especially positive considering October was revised lower to -0.9% as was September).

The manufacturing sector also rebounded 1.1% MoM – the biggest jump since October 2017 – but on a YoY basis, manufacturing remains in contraction…

Source: Bloomberg

Utilities rose a notable 2.9% in November (after falling 2.4% in October).

And finally, the decoupling between the economy and the market continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Thank you Mr.Powell.

end
The JOLTS report, a mixed bag
(ZEROHEDGE)

Job Openings Rebound But Hiring Tumbles

One month after US job openings unexpectedly tumbled to an 18 month low, while the drop in the quits level confirmed the US labor market had cooled off substantially, moments ago the BLS reported that in October, there was a substantial rebound in the labor market from the perspective of Janet Yellen’s favorite indicator, the JOLTS report.

According to the BLS, in October the total number of job openings rebounded sharply, and after last month’s 277K plunge to 7.024, in October the number of job opening jumped by 235K to 7.267K, the biggest one-month increase since March, and well above the 7.009MM expected.

 

The largest increases in job openings levels were in retail trade (+125,000), finance and insurance (+56,000), and durable goods manufacturing (+50,000). The largest decreases in job openings were in nondurable goods manufacturing (-36,000), information (-33,000), and arts, entertainment, and recreation (-26,000). The number of job openings was little changed in all four regions.

Thanks to the latest rebound in job openings, there have now been more US job openings than unemployed workers for a record 20 consecutive months, and in October there were 1.4 million Job Openings (7.267MM) than unemployed workers (5.811MM).

 

 

 

Yet while the rebound in job openings was clearly favorable for the US labor market, unlike last month, though, when there was a modest rebound in the rate of hires, in October the number of hires dropped by 187K to 5.764 million, the lowest level of hiring since June.  The number of hires edged down for total private (-194,000) and was little changed for government. The hires level decreased in retail trade (-97,000).

 

The drop in hiring meant that after expanding for three months, hiring once again slumped into contraction, dropping by 1.9% in October, down sharply from from the 5% increase in September.

 

Finally, according to the final closely watched JOLTS metric, the so-called “take this job and shove it” indicator – the total level of “quits” which shows worker confidence that they can leave their current job and find a better paying job elsewhere – rose for the first time after two months of declines, and in October quits rose by 41K to 3.512MM from 3.471MM.

Quits increased in other services (+66,000) and educational services (+12,000). Quits decreased in retail trade (-63,000) and in durable goods manufacturing (-21,000).

As of October, the Beveridge curve looked as follows:

 

During an expansion, the job openings rate is high and the unemployment rate is low moving to points along the curve up and to the left. During a contraction, the job openings rate is low and the unemployment rate is high moving to points along the curve down and to the right. A shift in the Beveridge curve can indicate a structural shift in the economy due to industry-based structural mismatch and geography-based structural mismatch. For example, if the job openings rate and the unemployment rate are both high, this could shift the entire curve up and to the right. From the start of the most recent recession in December 2007 through the end of 2009, the series trended lower and further to the right as the job openings rate declined and the unemployment rate rose.

END

This is a biggy…Fedex is one of the best Bellwether for global and USA activity..Earnings were disastrous..and worse of all, forward guidance showed a continual faltering in activity. .

(zerohedge)

Fedex Crashes After Missing Across The Board, Slashing Guidance

Traders will be hard-pressed to recall when was the last time Fedex reported earnings that sent its stock higher. And while they are thinking, we can be certain that it won’t be today because one day after FedEx got a kick in the groin from Amazon which stopped using the company’s ground shipping services for its various third party sellers, the company was hit with a one-two punch when it reported yet another disastrous earnings report, in which it not only missed earnings but also cut profits.

First, the historicals, which were for lack of a better word, deplorable (relative to already lowered expectations). Specifically, Fedex reported 2Q numbers as follows:

  • Adjusted EPS $2.51 vs. $4.03 y/y, estimate $2.78 (range $2.57 to $3.21) (BD)
  • Adjusted operating margin 3.9% vs. 7.50% y/y, estimate 5.35% (Bloomberg MODL)
  • Revenue $17.3 billion, estimate $17.66 billion (range $16.22 billion to $18.13 billion) (BD)

But if the historicals were ugly, it was the forecast that was downright disastrous:

 

  • FedEx now forecasts fiscal 2020 earnings of $9.10 to $10.35 per diluted share, and earnings of $10.25 to $11.50 per diluted share before the year-end MTM retirement plan accounting adjustment. Previously, the company had seen $11-$13, while the sellside estimate is $12.05.
  • In other words, the midline of the company guidance is almost a dollar below both its own and the street’s estimates.
  • Additionally, and less importantly, FedEx also sees full year capex of $5.9 billion, the same as its prior forecast and just above the sellside estimate $5.88 billion. Here one could ask if earnings are set to slide, why the company didn’t also cut its CapEx, and the likely answer is it can’t as it has to spend more and more just to keep EPS in roughly the same place.

Commenting on the ugly forecast, FedEx CFO Alan B. Graf said that “our revised guidance reflects lower-than-expected revenue at each of our transportation segments and higher-than-expected expenses driven by continued mix shift to residential delivery services. In response, we are implementing reductions to the global FedEx Express air network to better match capacity with demand. We are also further restricting hiring and pursuing opportunities to optimize our networks, including investments in technology aimed at improving our productivity and lowering our costs.”

Finally, it just may turn out that the company’s forecast may have to be cut again, as FedEx writes that these forecasts assume moderate U.S. economic growth, the company’s current fuel price expectations, no further weakening in  international economic conditions from the company’s current forecast and no additional adverse developments in international trade policies and relations.”

Good luck with all those assumptions, guys.

It was not immediately clear how much of an impact Amazon’s decision to fully phase out FedEx would have, but the market didnt care to find out, and FedEx stock tumbled over 7% after hours, in the process dragging UPS shares some 2% lower as well.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Just take a look at the data:  all market rallies are due to the Fed Qe4

(zerohedge)

Morgan Stanley: It’s Fair To Say That The Market Rally Is Due To The Fed’s QE4

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, who in 2018 was the most bearish and accurate of all sellside analysts, fought the Fed in 2019 and the Fed won.

One week ago we quoted from Wilson’s latest weekly report, in which the now quasi-bullish strategist explained why he had grudgingly turned bullish, saying “we continue to see the 3 largest central banks in the world expand their balance sheets at the rate of $100B per month ($60B from the Fed, $25B from the ECB and $15B from the BOJ).” As a reminder, several years ago, Citi’s fixed income guru Matt King said that it takes $200 billion in quarterly liquidity injections across all central banks to prevent a market crash, and lo and behold we are now well above that bogey.

Wilson continued, pointing out that “as part of our year ahead outlook published a few weeks ago, we cited this excessive liquidity as a reason why we thought the S&P 500 could trade well above our bull case year end target of 3250 while this policy action persists. As of right now, it appears that the Fed, ECB and BOJ will continue at this pace through the first quarter of next year.”

The Morgan Stanley strategist then also laid out how central banks directly affect risk assets, noting that “the central bank transmission mechanism is via suppressed volatility” and ading that “the recent actions by the Fed were intended to reduce volatility in the repo market but it’s also had the effect of reducing the volatility in risk markets.” Little did Wilson know that just a few days later, the Fed would announce a record $490 billion in year-end liquidity backstops in the form of expanded overnight and term repos to avoid a year-end repo market crisis and to keep repo rates low on Monday when about $100 billion in systemic liquidity would be drained as explained previously.

 

And, as Wilson correctly noted, this massive tide of liquidity which would push the Fed’s balance sheet to a new all time high in just a few weeks, was quickly used by the market to send the VIX tumbling to an 11-handle, with single-digits in the VIX’ immediate future now virtually unavoidable.

Fast forward to today when Wilson – still sore from flipping from a raging bear to a reluctant bull – is out with his latest note in which he notes that following the recent “trifecta of positive catalysts”, market sentiment has been driven higher on “trade and Brexit” but it is the “liquidity from central banks is the main actor in this bull run.

Sounding awfully like a tinfoil conspiracy blog, here is how Wilson explains why no risks and headwinds – and there are quite a few – matter thanks to the “extraordinarily accommodative” central banks:

The approximately $100B/month of balance sheet expansion from the big three central banks (Fed, ECB and BOJ) is now being further enhanced by the Fed’s overnight repo operations which are expected to increase to $490B by year end. In short, we don’t expect any liquidity issues between now and year end with that kind of money flooding the system. And, while the repo operations won’t have a direct impact on risk markets, we do think the Fed’s $60B of bill purchases and the ECB and BOJ QE operations are absolutely suppressing volatility across most risk markets, including equities…

… in the process pushing stocks to all time highs.

The bottom line is that just months after Morgan Stanley downgraded global stocks to a Sell, only to reverse itself four  weeks ago, Wilson is rapidly emerging as one of the market’s biggest bulls, not because he wants to but because the Fed has forced him to. As he says, he is now “very bullish on liquidity support being provided currently by the Fed and other central banks. While we can’t quantify the exact impact it is having on asset prices, we remain confident that it is suppressing volatility, which is attracting new flows to risk assets from systematic strategies and driving prices higher and attracting other investors, particularly at year end when performance anxiety is greatest.”

Wilson then uses the following chart showing the significant y/y rate of change that occurred in the Fed’s balance sheet this summer and fall…

… highlighting that this -miraculously – coincided with the time recession fears were peaking as well (but don’t call it QE 4 – “everyone knows” the Fed will only inject $1 trillion in liquidity in the Sept-Jan period only to fix the repo market, and it has “nothing” to do with anything else, like goosing stocks)

 

Wilson then muses rhetorically “how much of the powerful rally from September is due to the rate of change on growth bottoming and how much is due to this almost unprecedented rate of change in balance sheet.” Incidentally, there is no doubt as to the answer: on Friday we showed another uncanny chart: in the 9 weeks since the Fed launched QE4, the S&P is up every week the Fed’s balance sheet is up, and is down just one week – when the balance sheet shrank.

As for Wilson’s own answer, here it is: “it’s fair to say that [the rally] may be more due to the balance sheet reversal [i.e. “NOT QE”, also i.e., QE 4] than fundamentals since the real signs of bottoming have come from international PMIs rather than the US.”

Having identified the culprit behind the move, Wilson then echoes BofA’s Hartnett who as a reminder expects the S&P to hit 3,333 by March 3, saying that the meltup is likely to continue “with the Fed scheduled to keep expanding its balance sheet by $60B /month through the first quarter” which the MS strategist concludes is “a powerful positive force that can take stocks well above fair value between now and then.”

And “then” what? Actually ignore that: the real question is just what is the “fair value” of stocks when one strips away not just QE4, but also QE3, QE2, QE1, and trillions in QE from other central banks. Luckily, the market will be permanently halted long before we will ever find out.

END

Again, Trump urges the Fed to cut rates to launch officially QE which they are already doing

(zerohedge)

Trump Urges Fed To Cut Rates, Launch QE To Counter “Strong” Dollar

President Trump took to Twitter this morning to admonish Fed Chair Powell (something he hasn’t done for a little while).

 

Trump said “Would be sooo great if the Fed would further lower interest rates and quantitative ease.”

Why? The economy is doing great right?

The Dollar is very strong against other currencies and there is almost no inflation. This is the time to do it. Exports would zoom!”

There’s just two things…

First, the dollar is at 5-month lows having tumbled since the Phase One trade deal was “completed”…

 

Source: Bloomberg

and Second, The Fed is printing money at its fastest pace since the financial crisis…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Notably Dallas Fed’s Kaplan hinted briefly in his speech this morning that we should not assume the dollar will be the reserve currency forever.

END

This will not be good for the uSA economy: Boeing suppliers all slide as the 737 max production is halted

(zerohedge)

Boeing Suppliers Slide As 737 Max Production Halted

Shares in Boeing slid this week after the company announced on Monday afternoon that it would suspend production of its best selling plane, the 737 Max. The production halt has rippled down the supply chain, sent shares of some suppliers tumbling on Tuesday.

Analysts told Reuters this is one of the biggest assembly-line halts in several decades, could continue to cost Boeing $1 billion per month despite the production freeze.

“Each supplier will likely be missing about 200 deliveries versus original plans, with about 80% of the shortfall coming in 2020 and the remainder in 2021,” Melius Research analyst Carter Copeland wrote in a note.

British engineering firm Senior Plc, whose biggest client is Boeing, saw shares plunge 11% on the production news.

Shares in France’s Safran SA dipped 1.50%, while General Electric was flat, both companies are in a joint venture to produce engines for the 737 Max.

Copeland said U.S.-based Spirit, which manufactures the 737 Max’s fuselage, is one of the most exposed suppliers, deriving at least half of its sales from Boeing.

“We assume (Spirit) will elect to stop production and furlough employees at the cost of $0.40 (per share) per month of the stoppage,” Copeland said.

Safran warned that if 737 Max groundings lasted through 2020, its cash conversion rate could fall below its targeted 50 to 55% range of recurring operating income.

General Electric warned that extended groundings of the plane would reduce cash flow by $1.4 billion next year.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Ken Herbert said, “some step-down in production across the supply chain” will be seen as Boeing absorbs a lot of the financial impact to keep the chain together through the halt.

Other suppliers who’ve seen these shares fall on Tuesday include United Technologies Corp -.77%, Arconic Inc -1%, Ducommun Inc -1.50%, Hexcel Corp -3%, Astronics Corp -1.3%, Melrose Industries -1.1%, and Meggitt -1.5%.

 

Boeing employs more than 12,000 workers at its 737 assembly factory in Renton, Washington. There is no word on any layoffs as of yet.

Firms that have 10 to 20% of their annual sales exposed to 737 Max production could enact cost-cutting measures in 1Q20 — this would likely be in the form of furloughs.

As for the broader economy, the impact of the halt could be seen as a temporary headwind for GDP in the coming quarters.

Bloomberg Economics researcher Andrew Husby indicated that the 1Q20 impact of the halt could shave off one percentage point from 1Q20 GDP.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Tuesday that the halt could subtract around .5 percentage point from 1Q20 GDP.

With manufacturing already in a recession, could the Boeing halt be a shock that ripples through the economy?

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

You will enjoy this one!! Schiff yelled at during a town hall event in Glendale

(zerohedge)

“You Should Go To Fuc*in’ Jail”: Chaos Ensues As Schiff Accused Of ‘Treason’ At California Event

A Glendale, California town hall event hosted by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) became less than civil on Saturday, after hecklers accused the House Intelligence Committee chairman of “treason” and being a “liar,” according to the Los Angeles Times.

As Schiff began speaking, a man and two women held up signs reading,”Don’t Impeach.” When they were asked to take down the signs, they refused. -LA Times

Around a dozen Trump supporters attended the event to discuss the House’s recent recognition of the Armenian Genocide. Scattered throughout the audience, the protesters began yelling “Liar!” at the de facto ringleader of House Democrats’ efforts to impeach President Trump.

After some aggressive shushing from Schiff supporters, the audience members yelling at Schiff removed their jackets, revealing pro-Trump shirts. One of them then said, “you should go to fuckin’ jail … you will be going to jail, for treason.”

This man is a fuckin’ liar!” shouted another.

Watch:

The outburst lasted around 15 minutes, before the event continued. Three Glendale police officers were present, and no arrests or injuries were reported.

 

The event was organized by the Armenian National Committee of America — Western Region to thank the U.S. House of Representatives for recently passing a resolution affirming its recognition of the Armenian genocide and celebrating the U.S. Senate’s passage of the resolution.

The measure’s passage is considered a rebuke to Trump, who had sought its delay, and to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had lobbied the White House to block the designation. The Turkish government disputes that a genocide took place.

Erdogan, in an Oval Office visit last month, warned of dire consequences for the Washington-Ankara relationship if the “genocide” term were to be formalized. The Senate resolution declared it U.S. policy “to commemorate the Armenian Genocide through official recognition and remembrance” and “reject efforts to enlist, engage, or otherwise associate the United States government with denial of the Armenian Genocide or any other genocide.” -LA Times

“I was grateful for the opportunity to share in the community’s celebration of the historic passage of the Armenian Genocide resolution in both the House and Senate, and thankful for the recognition of the efforts of so many people who made this day possible,” Schiff said in a statement following the event.

“Unfortunately, some came to the event with the intent to disrupt, but the Armenian community has had to overcome far greater challenges along the road to recognition than to be deterred by a few angry voices.”

There are more than just a few, from what we gather.

END

not good:  Judge Sullivan denies Flynn”s request for exculpatory information which is considerable

(Epoch Times)

Judge Denies Flynn’s Requests For Exculpatory Information, Case Dismissal

Authored by Peter Svab via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has denied requests by Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn to prompt the government to give him information he deems exculpatory and to dismiss the case against him.

District Court Judge Emmet Sullivan sided with the government in arguing that Flynn was already given all the information to which he was entitled. The judge also dismissed Flynn’s allegations of government misconduct, noting that Flynn already pleaded guilty to his crime and failed to raise his objections earlier when some of the issues he now complains about were brought to his attention.

“The sworn statements of Mr. Flynn and his former counsel belie his new claims of innocence and his new assertions that he was pressured into pleading guilty,” Sullivan said in his Dec. 16 opinion (pdf).

Flynn, former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, pleaded guilty on Nov. 30, 2017, to one count of lying to the FBI. He’s been expected to receive a light sentence, including no prison time, after extensively cooperating with the government on multiple investigations.

In June, he fired his lawyers and hired former federal prosecutor Sidney Powell, who has since accused the government of misconduct, particularly of withholding exculpatory information or providing it late.

Powell has argued that Flynn’s previous lawyers had a conflict of interest because they testified in a related case against Flynn’s former business partner. Flynn had previously told the court he would keep the lawyers despite the conflict, but Powell said prosecutors should have asked the judge to dismiss the lawyers anyway. Sullivan disagreed, saying Flynn failed to show a precedent that the prosecutors had that obligation.

Powell also said the government had no proper reason to investigate Flynn in the first place and that it had set up an “ambush interview” with the intention of making Flynn say something it could allege was false.

Sullivan disagreed again and said that previously, with the advice of his former lawyers, Flynn never “challenged the conditions of his FBI interview.”

Flynn was interviewed by two FBI agents, Joe Pientka and Peter Strzok, on Jan. 24, 2017, two days after he was sworn in as President Donald Trump’s national security adviser.

The prosecutors argued that the FBI had a “sufficient and appropriate basis” for the interview because Flynn days earlier told members of the Trump campaign, including soon-to-be Vice President Mike Pence, that he didn’t discuss with the Russian ambassador the expulsion of Russian diplomats in late December 2016 by then-President Barack Obama.

Flynn later admitted in his statement of offense that he asked, via Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergei Kislyak, for Russia to only respond to the sanctions in a reciprocal manner and not escalate the situation.

The FBI was at the time investigating whether Trump campaign aides coordinated with Russian 2016 election meddling. No such coordination was established by the probe, which concluded more than two years later under then-special counsel Robert Mueller.

Powell argued that whatever Flynn told Pence and others in the transition team was none of the FBI’s business.

 

“The Executive Branch has different reasons for saying different things publicly and privately, and not everyone is told the details of every conversation,” she said in a previous court filing.

“If the FBI is charged with investigating discrepancies in statements made by government officials to the public, the entirety of its resources would be consumed in a week.”

Powell said Flynn’s answers to the agents weren’t “material,” meaning relevant to the FBI investigation of election meddling.

Sullivan, however, thought otherwise, using a broader description of the investigation.

The bureau, he said, probed the “nature of any links between individuals associated with the [Trump] Campaign and Russia” and what Flynn said was material to it.

The description Sullivan used appears to omit the context of the probe, which focused specifically on the Russian election meddling.

 end
A good article by Dershowitz:  Did the Supreme Court by taking up Trump’s tax cases pull the rug under his articles of impeachment?
a great read.
(courtesy Alan Dershowitz)

Did The Supreme Court Just Pull The Rug Out From Under Article Of Impeachment?

Authored by Alan Dershowitz, op-ed via The Hill,

The decision by the Supreme Court to review the lower court rulings involving congressional and prosecution subpoenas directed toward President Trump undercuts the second article of impeachment that passed the House Judiciary Committee along party lines last week.

That second article of impeachment charges President Trump with obstruction of Congress for refusing to comply with congressional subpoenas in the absence of a final court order. In so charging him, the House Judiciary Committee has arrogated to itself the power to decide the validity of its subpoenas, as well as the power to determine whether claims of executive privilege must be recognized, both powers that properly belong with the judicial branch of our government, not the legislative branch. The House of Representatives will do likewise, if it votes to approve the articles, as is expected to occur on Wednesday.

President Trump has asserted that the executive branch, of which he is the head, need not comply with congressional subpoenas requiring the production of privileged executive material, unless there is a final court order compelling such production. He has argued, appropriately, that the judicial branch is the ultimate arbiter of conflicts between the legislative and executive branches. Therefore, the Supreme Court decision to review these three cases, in which lower courts ruled against President Trump, provides support for his constitutional arguments in the investigation.

The cases that are being reviewed are not identical to the challenged subpoenas that form the basis for the second article of impeachment. One involves authority of the New York district attorney to subpoena the financial records of a sitting president, as part of any potential criminal investigation. The others involve authority of legislative committees to subpoena records as part of any ongoing congressional investigations.

But they are close enough. Even if the high court were eventually to rule against the claims by President Trump, the fact that the justices decided to hear them, in effect, supports his constitutional contention that he had the right to challenge congressional subpoenas in court, or to demand that those issuing the subpoenas seek to enforce them through court.

It undercuts the contention by House Democrats that President Trump committed an impeachable offense by insisting on a court order before sending possibly privileged material to Congress. Even before the justices granted review of these cases, the two articles of impeachment had no basis in the Constitution. They were a reflection of the comparative voting power of the two parties, precisely what one of the founders, Alexander Hamilton, warned would be the “greatest danger” of an impeachment.

House Democrats should seriously consider dropping this second article in light of the recent Supreme Court action. In fairness, this development involving the high court occurred after Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee made up their minds to include obstruction of Congress as an impeachment article. Yet the new circumstances give some Democratic members of Congress, who may end up paying an electoral price if they support the House Judiciary Committee recommendation, meaningful reason for voting against at least one of the articles of impeachment.

It would be a smart way out for those Democrats. More important, it would be the right thing for them to do. It would be smart and right because, as matters now stand, the entire process smacks of partisanship, with little concern for the precedential impact which these articles could have on future impeachments. If a few more Democrats voted in a way that would demonstrate greater nuanced recognition that, at the least, the second article of impeachment represents an overreach based on current law, it would lend an aura of some nonpartisan legitimacy to the proceedings.

The first article goes too far in authorizing impeachment based on the vague criterion of abuse of power. But it is the second article that truly endangers our system of checks and balances and the important role of the courts as the umpires between the legislative and executive branches under the Constitution. It would serve the national interest for thoughtful and independent minded Democrats to join Republicans in voting against the second article of impeachment, even if they wrongly vote for the first.

end

Rudy Giuliani was on fox news yesterday and states that he has lots of evidence which shows that Yovanovitch was the master of the cover up in Ukraine and that was the reason for her ousting

(Sara Carter)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Democrats Vow To Continue Impeachment Investigations Regardless Of Senate Outcome

“In a filing to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, House General Counsel Douglas Letter argued that the House’s demands for grand jury materials connected to former special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation were still urgent because such evidence might become relevant to the Senate’s expected impeachment trial next month,” Politico reported. “But Letter went further to note that even apart from the Senate trial, the House Judiciary Committee intends to continue its impeachment investigation arising from the Mueller probe on its own merit.”…

https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-democrats-vow-to-continue-impeachment-investigations-regardless-of-senate-outcome/

The new Quinnipiac Poll shows Americans are moving against impeachment, particularly independents.

Today, Republicans say President Trump should not be impeached from office 95 – 5 percent, independents say the president should not be impeached and removed from office 58 – 36 percent, while Democrats say President Trump should be impeached and removed from office 86 – 11 percent…

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3652

@ByronYork: There is some tension between House Democrats’ ‘abundance of evidence’ claims and Senate Democrats’ demand for new witnesses. Bottom line: House Democrats could have pressed for more evidence. They didn’t. Case is made; will now be sent to Senate.

    Democratic pre-trial trolling strategy already clear. We need new witnesses! What does Mitch McConnell have to hide? What are they afraid of? New witnesses, new evidence. Americans deserve the whole story. (Except for ‘distractions’ like Hunter Biden or whistleblower.)

   Many of you are angry about witnesses. But this is a problem: Democrats are paying a price for their haste to impeach. They didn’t go to court to compel testimony, but now they want witnesses they didn’t hear to appear magically and testify before Senate.

@RepRatcliffe [Ex-US Atty.]: Acting as both judge and prosecutor, Democrats tell America they don’t need any more evidence or testimony before impeaching the President. So it’s fair to impeach him on that evidence and testimony—but it’s not enough evidence and testimony for a Senate trial? Great strategy.

Ukrainian Oligarch Paid $700,000 to the Husband of a House Judiciary Committee Democrat

https://thefederalist.com/2019/12/16/ukrainian-oligarch-paid-700000-to-the-husband-of-a-house-judiciary-committee-democrat/#.XffgaSLFw8s.twitter

Judiciary Committee impeachment report alleges Trump committed ‘multiple federal crimes’

The 169-page report makes the case for Trump’s removal from office.

    “Although President Trump’s actions need not rise to the level of a criminal violation to justify impeachment, his conduct here was criminal,”the panel’s Democrats argue, labeling Trump’s behavior “both constitutional and criminal in character” and contending that the president “betrayed the people of this nation” and should be removed from office…

The committee also alleges that Trump violated the honest services wire fraud statute during the July 25 phone call, as well as during a separate phone call a day later with Gordon Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to the European Union. Those “foreign wire communications” were done “in furtherance of an ongoing bribery scheme,” according to the report… [Wire fraud!?!? You can’t make this up!]

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/16/judiciary-committee-impeachment-report-trump-committed-multiple-federal-crimes-086096

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

 

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