DEC 19//GOLD CLOSED UP $6.15 AT $1480.65//SILVER ROSE 11 CENTS TO $17.10//ANOTHER STRONG GOLD QUEUE JUMPING THIS MORNING//WHISTLEBLOWER AND TECH GENIUS BILL BINNEY (FORMERLY OF NSA) NOW HAS THE PROOF THAT IT WAS THE CIA THAT BROKE INTO THE DNC COMPUTERS AND NOT RUSSIA//PELOSI DELAYS SENDING THE ARTICLES OF IMPEACHMENT TO THE SENATE//BILL BARR IN A TV INTERVIEW CLAIMS THAT COMEY IS LYING THROUGH HIS EYE TEETH: HE IS NECK DEEP IN THE FBI-FISA FIASCO//

GOLD:$1480.65 UP $6.15    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.10 UP 11 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1475.20

 

silver:  $17.02

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 58/190

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,472.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/18/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/20/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 48
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 29
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 15
661 C JP MORGAN 58
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 21 7
800 C MAREX SPEC 49 16
880 C CITIGROUP 1
880 H CITIGROUP 116
905 C ADM 4 1
991 H CME 11
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 190 190
MONTH TO DATE: 13,993

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 190 NOTICE(S) FOR 19,000 OZ (0.5909 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  13,993 NOTICES FOR 1,399,300 OZ  (43.524 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

171 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 855,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3716 for 18,580,000 oz

 

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7160 DOWN 115 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7155 DOWN 123

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1300 CONTRACTS FROM 206,302 UP TO 207,602 DESPITE THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  1305 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1305 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1305 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1305 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.525 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

19.345   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 3 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED  2605 CONTRACTS. OR 13.03 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER. AND THAT IS PROBABLY THE REASON FOR THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

24,418 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,418 CONTRACTS) OR 122.09 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1526 CONTRACTS OR 7.630 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  122.09 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.43% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,211.65   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1300, DESPITE THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1305 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2705 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1305 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1300 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.99 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.032 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 147% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 171 NOTICE(S) FOR 855,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  19.345 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 547 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 717,534. THE RISE IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED DESPITE A  $2.00 PRICING LOSS ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5784 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  5784 CONTRACTS APRIL: 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 717,534,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6331 CONTRACTS: 547 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5784 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 6331 CONTRACTS OR 633,100 OZ OR 19.69 TONNES.  WEDNESDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $2.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A  STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 19.69  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN  $2.00) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (19.69 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 112,417 CONTRACTS OR 11,241,700 oz OR 349.66` TONNES (16 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7026 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 349.66 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 349.66/3550 x 100% TONNES =9.84% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     6,075,77  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 547 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($2.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5784 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5784 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6331 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5784 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 547 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 19.69 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.00 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  2.63 TONNES OF GOLD

 

DEC 19/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 883.29 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER 11 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

DEC 18/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1300 CONTRACTS from 206,302 UP TO 207,740 AND CLOSER TO A NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1305

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  1305  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1305 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1300  CONTRACTS TO THE 1305 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2605 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13.03 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 19.345 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1305 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.02 POINTS OR 0.02%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 19.06 POINTS OR 0.20%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 69.58 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .21%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0098 /Oil UP TO 60.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.11 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0098 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0038 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea/USA

The USA’s attempt to get South Korea to pay for its $5 billion price tag for troops stationed in the peninsula

(zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China

China is facing a huge $400 billion liquidity hole exactly what the USA is facing

(zerohedge)

ii)China/Macau

Xi having witnessing problems with Hong Kong is now willing to make Macau the next financial powerhouse.

He is whistling “Dixie”

(zerohedge)

iii)CHINA/USA

INTERESTING: CHINA WANTS TO SIGN ON THEIR PHASE ONE TRADE DEAL WITH THE USA
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

The pound initially falls and then jumps on news that the BOE say have to enter a tightening mode

(zerohedge)

ii)Fascinating: a backup audio feed was used to secretly leak confidential information to crooked hedge funds on Bank of England statements to be issued

(zerohedge)

iii)FRANCE

Trade unions illegally cut power to the Bank of France, homes and other companies as they are angry on pension reform

(zerohedge)

 

iv)EU

The anti EU revolt is spreading all across Europe

Watson/Summit News)

v)Italy
Opposition politicians ready to crash the government and force another election…bond prices fall (yields rise
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)RUSSIA/USA/GERMANY

The uSA has now given up on its attack on the new Nord Stream Pipeline which initiates in Russia and travels through to Germany and other parts of Europe.  The uSA does not want to give strength to Russia

(zerohedge)

ii)TURKEY/LIBYA/EGYPT

Today, we witness Egypt coming to the aid of the Hafter/USA group against Turkey.
(zerohedge)_

6.Global Issues

i)SWEDEN

For the first time in 5 years Sweden will abandon NIRP as they raise their rates

(zerohedge)

ii)BOLIVIA
Bolivia issues an arrest warrant for exiled president Morales on “sedition and terrorism” charges
(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

Strong evidence that the shale industry is turning to dust

(Anes Alic/OilPrice.com)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDONESIA

The Pig Ebola virus has now spread to Indonesia. This will force up prices on pork in this huge nation of 264 million people

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

As we continue to see:  : if you do not succeed try and try again..The indian minister is desperate to get citizens’s gold

..what an absolute joke..

(Times  of India/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)The manufacturing Philly Fed index tumbles in December and it is now back to 2019 lows.  The economy is just not growing at all in this important mfg area

(zerohedge)

b)Existing home sales unexpectedly tumble in November

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Goldman Sachs are now happy campers today.  They are being forced to admit guilt criminally and pay a two billion dollar fine..But most important and this is not what they want; they must hire an independent monitor to watch over these crooks.  This guilty pleas is from the 1 MDB case and Goldman still has to be deal with Malaysia

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Whistleblower and tech genius Bill Binney now has proof that the hack on the DNC was done by non other than the CIA under orders form Obama

(Eric Zeusse/Duran)

b)Pelos plans to delay sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate so that they cold get more information. This will backfire on the Dems

(Watson/Summit News)

c)Barr stats that Comey is lying over his attempt to distance himself from the FBI mess:

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 547 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 717,534 DESPITE THE  LOSS OF $2.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5784 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 00 ; FEB: 5784  AND APRIL: 00  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5784 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 6331 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5784 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED 547 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $2.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 6331 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  6331 CONTRACTS OR 633,100 OZ OR 19.69 TONNES.  

 

 

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 446 open interest stand for a LOSS of 300 contracts.  We had 365 notices so we GAINED another strong 65 contracts or an additional 6500 OZ will stand for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on the this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and well as negating a fiat bonus…queue jumping resumes with a vengeance.

 

we had: 190 notice(s) filed upon for 19,000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI INCREASE by  120 contracts UP to 3474 which is STILL extremely high for a January delivery month

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A LOSS  OF 2343 in contracts DOWN to 508,251.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1300 CONTRACTS FROM 206,302 UP TO 207,602(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING/WEDNESDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a LOSS of 35 contracts DOWN to 324. We had 56 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we GAINED ANOTHER STRONG 21 contracts or an additional 105,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

After December, we have a LOSS in the next front month of January of 170 contracts to stand at 766.  The Feb non active month saw a GAIN of 74 contracts UP to 201.  March is a very active month and here we witness a GAIN of 1139 contracts UP to 162,536

 

We, today, had 171 notice(s) filed for 855,000, OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 97,502  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  211,547  contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 19/2019

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
35,931.212 oz
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
190 notice(s)
 19000 OZ
(0.5909 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
256 contracts
(25600 oz)
0.7926 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
13,993 notices
1,399,300 OZ
43.524 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

ii) Out of HSBC:  35,931.212 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 35,931.212 oz

ADJUSTMENTS:

 

two biggies:

i) Out of HSBC:  77,113.347 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC and will be deemed a settlement

ii) Out of Int Delaware:  21,412.566 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Int Delaware: and a deemed settlement

total weight: 3.064 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 190 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 58 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,993) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (446 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (190 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,424,900 OZ OR 44.32 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC (DATA CORRECTED FROM YESTERDAY)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (13,883 x 100 oz)  + (446)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (190 x 100 oz )which equals 1,424,900 oz standing OR 44.32 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC. (DATA CORRECTED FROM YESTERDAY)

We GAINED 65 contracts or an additional 6500 oz will stand at the comex as they REFUSED TO  morph into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 32.285 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              44.32 TONNES

 

total: 120.30 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 17.9576 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 120.30  tonnes

 

Thus:

120.30 tonnes of delivery –

17.9576 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 102.34 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 32.285 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,275,519.518 oz or  39.674 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,037,965.9 oz (32.285 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged)  1,037,965.9 tonnes  (32.285 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,676,434.163 oz 269.87 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 19 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 20,295.07 oz
Brinks
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
605,596.500 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
171
CONTRACT(S)
(855,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
153 contracts
 765,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3716 contracts

18,580,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into CNT: 605,596.500 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.77% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/317.66 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  605,596.500  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks: 14,250.79 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 6,044.28 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 20,295.07  oz

We had 2 adjustment:

Out of CNT

 

adjustments from the customer account into the dealer accounts:

i) CNT:  735,531.650 pz

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  88.028 million

total dealer + customer silver:  318.251 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 171 contract(s) FOR 280,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3716 x 5,000 oz = 18,580,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (324) and the number of notices served upon today 171 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 3716 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (324)- number of notices served upon today (171) x 5000 oz equals 19,345,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We gained 21 contracts or an additional 105,000 oz will stand at the comex as they, refused to morphed into London based forwards. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 171 notice(s) filed for 855,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  22,094 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 49,717 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 49,717 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 248 million  OZ 35.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISE TO -1.73% ((DEC 19/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.14% to NAV (DEC 19/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.73%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.71 TRADING 14.15///DISCOUNT  3,81

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 19/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 883.29 tonnes

*IN LAST 729 TRADING DAYS: 53.96 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 629 TRADING DAYS: A NET 113.09 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

 

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

 

 

DEC 19:  SLV INVENTORY

364.858 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.01/ and libor 6 month duration 1.990

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .11

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.00%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.04

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

As we continue to see:  : if you do not succeed try and try again..The indian minister is desperate to get citizens’s gold

..what an absolute joke..

(Times  of India/GATA)

Get people to lend us their gold so we can use it to push its price down, Indian minister tells jewelers

 Section: 

Government Seeks Industry Suggestions to Improve Gold Monetisation Scheme

From the Press Trust of India
via The Times of India, Mumbai
Wednesday, December 18, 2019

NEW DELHI — Union Minister Piyush Goyal today sought suggestions from the jewellery industry to improve the Gold Monetisation Scheme to unlock the large pool of the yellow metal lying idle with households.

Addressing an awards function organised by the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council here, the commerce minister said unlocking of idle gold will help in reducing the burden on foreign exchange reserves.

… 

In 2015 the government launched the Gold Monetisation Scheme to mobilize the yellow metal held by households and institutions in the country. However, the scheme has failed to evoke good response from individuals because of lower returns and security concerns.

Under the scheme, banks’ customers are allowed to deposit heir idle gold for a fixed period in return for interest in the range of 2.25-2.50 percent.

“I think there are large amounts of gold that are lying in people’s lockers without any use. It is an unproductive asset that neither gives the person any return nor helps the economy. I would like you all to help us create a scheme by which we can truly attract people to come and deposit their gold,” Goyal said.

The aim should be to encourage people to deposit their idle gold and earn income from it without losing ownership of the yellow metal. They should keep gold like a fixed deposit and enjoy both appreciation of the gold value and some reasonable return on the deposit, he said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/govt-seeks-indu…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

iii) Other physical stories:

Nicholas Biezanek

5:39 AM (1 hour ago)

to Williamme
Hi Bill/Harvey,
I now maintain a database of all Comex inventory movements.I normally just give an update at month end, but affairs at HSBC in respect of gold may be interesting.Whilst the no.s below might appear reasonably minuscule, Harvey Organ uses terms like ‘massive’ to describe physical movements of under two tonnes.Whilst no physical gold or silver ever leaves the registered categories of either gold or silver from any depository,from 12th July to 5th December only 5,14 tonnes of gold was withdrawn from the eligible category of all depositories in this quite extended period.Then in the last 8 trading days alone withdrawals have totaled 16.87 tonnes in just these  8 days.7,6 tonnes of this 16,87 tonnes related to the HSBC depository.
Whilst HSBC currently holds 63% of all  COMEX gold , from 12th July until 5th December  only 1,76 tonnes of physical gold was withdrawn, then suddenly an additional 7.6 tonnes of withdrawals is recorded in just the  three days of 9,11 and 12 December. 7.6 tonnes is very  close to this new third category of pledged gold that recently showed up in the HSBC depository in addition to its eligible and registered gold holdings.Since HSBC allegedly holds over 170 tonnes of gold, something doesn’t seem quite right if the regulator mandates this new category of pledged gold (presumably rehypothecated from the LBMA vaults). Maybe this tiny sum of pledged gold is,however, important in the context of most (some might say all) COMEX physical gold being stolen (aka rehypothecated) .As the total of EFP contracts in the last two years nears 14,000 tonnes, the conclusion is that this EFP scam is the only last option available to the Cartel to perpetuate the greatest fraud of all time.As of last night the COMEX Open Interest was about 2,237 tonnes, but all remains contained and calm because what does it matter if the aggregate total of EFPs expands to above 16,000 tonnes (and counting).I am sure that holders of vast quantities of physical vault gold closely observe the current insanity being worked out in USA internal affairs.Does USA not realize how utterly wretched it now appears in the eyes of the rest of world and words like extremely vulnerable also come to mind..
Regards
Nicholas
end

Tick Tock, The Triple Witch is Here!

Posted December 19th, 2019 at 9:13 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,

      Gold is trading lower with the price at $1,478.40 after reaching $1,482.00 before that pile of paper was applied with the low right by the price at $1,477.10. Silver gave the signal with its trade at $17.00 down 4.9 cents with the high at $17.105 and the low at $16.95. The US Dollar is flat as can be with its value pegged at 96.935, down 2.8 points with the high at 96.985 and the low at 96.805. All of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after they impeached a president because some feelings were hurt.

       In Venezuela, Gold is now valued at 14,765.52 Bolivar, shaving 17.98 Bolivar off its papered value with Silver at 169.788 Bolivar, giving the buyer another 0.549 savings from yesterday’s trades. The same affect is going on in Argentina as another day of savings arrives on time with Gold at 88,371.32 giving the buyer a 73.37 A-Peso discount with Silver now at 1,016.14 Peso’s taking out 2.94. Turkey seems to be doing something different with Gold trading higher proving a gain of 28.61 T-Liras with the price pegged at 8,782.30 Lira with Silver at 100.985 proving a gain of 0.123 in T-Lira value.

      December Silver Deliveries are consistent, in a confusing sort of way, with the Demand Count now at 324 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts taking out 24 requests for physicals on a reported Volume of 45 during yesterday’s trades. Part of our observances in the delivery cycle is the last trade of the day and the closing price. The very last purchase/sell was priced at $16.953 but the Comex closed the trade at $16.865, with the low in yesterday’s trade at $16.845. Comex is allowed to calculate the close (we ask; to who’s benefit?). Today’s trades in the Physical Market shows a Volume of 113 so far with a trading range between $16.99 and $16.975 with the last trade at the low. Said differently, right now, the Delivery Month is trading in the positive (+2.2 cents at $16.975) but the heavily traded futures, controlled by paper, is trading lower. This is the Tick and the Tock, in the Delivery Clock, that will one day chime the problem is here, probably too late but will be loud and clear.

      The Overall Open Interest in Silver continues to gain with the count now at 207,715 Overnighters proving an increase of 1,250 more short contracts, which had to be added in order to signal the price that only Algos can react to, in a market being drained of physicals.

      Yesterday, we witnessed the impeachment of a legally elected president, and on the flimsiest accusations, that failed only after those that did the accusing, got reviewed showing 17 intentional mis-steps by team CORNEY. The FISA courts are screaming they didn’t know they were being lied to, and the documents were proven to be filed under false testimony and hearsay, even without the chance of a counter party line of questioning of their secreted witness(es). As we move forward, one can’t but help but think that the Trump Team is already waiting in the Q as now the Senate and the Supreme Court get to have their say.

      With all the disruptive politics going on here, with the DOJ investigations of a criminal element in precious metals, the added bonus of Boris killing the socialist movement in a legal election over in England, yet all we’re seeing is the calm waters of the precious metals and currencies prices. Which is completely misleading everyone that simply looks at the price and not the actions causing the price. That duck floating around on that pond of calm-looking-water may look relax, but his feet are paddling against a current so strong that if one blinks, they may not see that duck get sucked up with everything else on and in the water as the system gets drained. We’re out of the waters and in physicals, we suggest you consider the same ….

Stay Strong!

J.Johnson

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0098/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0038   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 0.02 POINTS OR 0.00%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 19.06 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 69.58 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.35/Euro RISES TO 1.1121

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.49/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.98 and Brent: 66.11

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.21%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.41% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.47%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.62: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.37

3k Gold at $1474.30 silver at: 16.95   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.49 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9807 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0907 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.21%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.95% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.38%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9406..GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 6.00 TO ONE..

S&P Futures Trade At Record 3,200 After Trump Impeachment, Central Bank Bonanza

Global stocks hovered near all time high on Thursday following a barrage of central bank decision out of Japan, Taiwan, Norway, Sweden and the UK, with US equity futures trading at all time highs of 3,200 as jittery cable reacted to the BOE’s latest (unchanged) rate decision while the Swedish crown slumped despite the Swedish central bank’s decision to became the first central bank to raise interest rates from negative after a five year stint in NIRP territory.

 

Anyone who expected an adverse reaction to the historic Trump impeachment vote on Wednesday night was disappointed as Wall Street futures suggested the S&P 500 would barely budge, after rising to a fifth consecutive record high on Wednesday despite closing lower just fractionally by -0.04%. Market reaction was limited, since the Republican-controlled Senate is guaranteed not to convict Trump and remove him from office.

 

“Another day of phase-one trade agreement relief continued to support U.S. and indeed global equities,” said Matt Cairns, a strategist at Rabobank in London. Along with improving economic data and the House spending package “these factors are helping to weigh on Treasuries and bunds as the market ends 2019 with what we believe to be a misguided glass-half-full view of the world,” he said.

European equities were little changed in early trading, although they were pressured modestly as the trading day advanced. Britain’s pound recovered from the 3% loss it suffered as fear of a no-deal Brexit returned, after the BOE kept its rates unchanged but suggested it may hike rates in the future.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index drifted in and out of the red, with gains in real estate shares offsetting declines in automakers  while Britain’s blue-chip index traded inversely to how the cable reacted to the BOE’s announcement.

Earlier, Asian shares had pulled back from a one-and-a-half year peak as trading wound down before the end of the year. Asian stocks dipped, led by technology companies, after Donald Trump was impeached. Most markets in the region were down, with Taiwan and the Philippines leading declines, while India and Thailand rose. The Topix slipped for a second day as the Bank of Japan maintained its target for interest rates and asset purchases. The Shanghai Composite Index closed little changed, as a bank rally countered declines in technology firms. Stocks in China were unchanged after erasing the day’s losses as its central bank mounted another liquidity injection before a year-end cash squeeze. China has returned to the American market to buy soybeans on the heels of a partial trade deal with the U.S. India’s Sensex headed for a fresh peak, with Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy Services driving the gains.

With year-end looming, traders leaving for vacation and liquidity collapsing, there were few new catalysts on the horizon to revive the equity rally and details of the trade deal remaining vague, keeping stocks in a holding pattern. Central banks were likewise on hold, with policy makers in Japan, Taiwan, Norway and the U.K. leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

There was one notable central bank announcement: as previewed last night, the Swedish central bank raised its key rate to zero after five years in negative territory in a move that will provide relief to the finance industry and a test case for global counterparts with negative borrowing costs. Economists wondered whether Sweden’s hot-running economy would react badly and whether other sub-zero rate central banks in the euro zone, Japan, Denmark, Switzerland and Hungary would follow suit. The crown initially rose 0.2%, a gain that had been widely flagged, however as the session progressed the currency dropped to the lowest level in a week.

 

Here is a summary of the other key central bank announcements overnight, via RanSquawk:

  • BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged as expected with NIRP held at -0.1% and 10yr JGB yield target at around 0%, while it maintained forward guidance that rates will remain at current or lower levels for as long as needed to guard against risk momentum for hitting price target may be lost. BoJ repeated its assessment that Japan’s economy is expanding moderately as a trend but cut the assessment on industrial production in which it states industrial output is falling due to impact of natural disasters. BoJ later announced plans decided in April to lend ETFs to markets under a special facility aimed at improving liquidity in the ETF market, while it will amend the scheme aimed at encouraging banks to increase lending and will allow borrowers to roll over lending under certain conditions.
  • Riksbank hiked its Repo Rate by 25bps to 0.00%, as expected. Forecast for repo rate is unchanged, repo rate is expected to remain at 0% in the coming years. Deputy governors Breman and Jansson entered reservations against the rate hike. Improved prospects would justify a higher interest rate. But if the economy were instead to develop more weakly than forecast, the Executive Board could both cut the repo rate and take other measures to make monetary policy more expansionary. (Newswires)
  • Norges Bank left its Key Policy Rate unchanged at 1.50%, as expected in a unanimous decision. Norges Bank left its rate path unchanged for 2020 and 2021 but upgraded 2022 to 1.60% from 1.50%. Norges noted that monetary stance has become less expansionary and a weaker-than-projected krone implies in isolation a higher policy rate path, whilst on the other hand, the upturn in the Norwegian economy appears to be a little more moderate than previously assumed.

And speaking of central banks, they are all that matters: “At the end of the day, this market doesn’t look at macro and earnings, it just looks at monetary developments,” said Stéphane Barbier de la Serre, macro strategist at Makor Capital Markets. “If the market thinks central banks (globally) are done with being dovish then we would see some volatility.”

Luckily for the bulls, central banks are not only not done, but they will remain dovish until they lose all credibility as a decline in the stock market is now barred by monetary policy.

Don’t tell that to bond traders, however, as government bonds fell around the world. Treasuries slipped along with sovereign bonds from London to Tokyo after the barrage of overnight monetary decisions.  Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield crept towards the six-month highs it touched last week, with bond traders focussed on the day’s central bank meetings.

Elsewhere in FX, after Sweden’s move, Norway kept its rates at 1.5% and reiterated it was likely to stay there for some time. The dollar slipped against most major peers as Scandinavian currencies gained following central bank policy decisions in the region. The Australian dollar jumped by 0.36% to $0.6879 after better-than-expected labor-market data made interest rate cuts less likely. The yen barely moved from 109.58 per dollar after the Bank of Japan kept its quantitative easing in place and issued a gloomier assessment on factory output. Australia’s dollar climbed after jobs data for November beat forecasts.

In commodities, Brent dipped 0.1% to $66.10 per barrel. WTI also dipped 0.01% to $60.86 a barrel after U.S. government data showed a decline in crude inventories.  Prices are likely to be supported by production cuts coming from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia.

Expected data include jobless claims and existing home sales. Accenture, Darden, and Nike are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,200.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.01% to 414.42
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 169.95
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 548.78
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 23,864.85
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,736.11
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 27,800.49
  • Shanghai Composite unchanged at 3,017.07
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 41,654.28
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,833.11
  • Kospi up 0.08% to 2,196.56
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to -0.222%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1131
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 6.5 bps to 1.169%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.3 bps to 0.453%
  • Brent futures unchanged at $66.17/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,474.74
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 97.29

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Bank of Japan left policy untouched Thursday as a government stimulus package, progress in U.S.-China trade talks and signs of a bottoming of the global slowdown brightened the economic outlook.
  • Sweden’s central bank ended half a decade of subzero easing in a move that will provide relief to the finance industry and a test case for global counterparts experimenting with negative borrowing costs.
  • Norges Bank kept its deposit rate at 1.50% on Thursday, as expected, and stuck to its main message that a tightening cycle started over a year ago has now been shelved.
  • The European Central Bank may consider downgrading or jettisoning a key element of the Bundesbank-inspired architecture of its monetary policy, according to euro-area officials.
  • Europe’s top court ruled on Thursday that a jailed Catalan secessionist leader has political immunity, complicating acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s effort to form a governing coalition in Spain.
  • Sterling credit sales will likely make a fast-paced start to a potentially busy 2020 as issuers try to get ahead of another round of Brexit uncertainty.

Asian equity markets were lacklustre following an indecisive lead from US where the major indices finished flat due to a lack of drivers amid the pre-holiday lull. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was subdued by weakness in energy and the top-weighted financials sector, with early gains in the index wiped out after better than expected jobs data dampened February rate cut hopes, while Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) continued its marginal pullback from the 24k level amid a choppy currency and after a lack of fireworks at the BoJ policy meeting. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (Unch) traded indecisively and failed to take advantage of another substantial liquidity effort by the PBoC as well as expectations it may fine tune measures and use targeted stimulus next year, with some reports suggesting China’s private enterprises are facing the worst funding squeeze in more than two decades. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower and prices eyed a test on the 152.00 level to the downside with demand subdued alongside an uneventful BoJ policy announcement where the central bank maintained all policy settings as expected and reiterated its forward guidance that rates will remain at current or lower levels for as long as needed.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ Maintains Policy Rate, Keeps 10-Year Bond Yield Target
  • PBOC Injects Largest Amount in Open Operations Since Jan. 17
  • Indonesia Holds Interest Rate as It Sees Growth Rebound
  • Shimao Is Said to Be in Talks to Rescue Debt-Laden Developer

A mostly uninspiring session for European bourses thus far [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%] – following on from a similarly lacklustre Asia-Pac session. Sectors are flat/mixed with defensives modestly firmer vs. their cyclical peers, with the exception of energy names who remain buoyed by yesterday’s advances in the complex. Individual stocks stories remain in focus given the lack of fresh macro catalysts. The IT sector failed to capitalise on optimistic earnings from Micron (+4.1% pre-market) late doors yesterday with STMicroelectronics (+0.3%), Micro Focus (-0.1%) and Dialog Semiconductor (-0.1%) all relatively unfazed. Elsewhere, NMC Health (-9.8%) has wiped out yesterday’s gains as the negative note from activist short-seller Muddy Waters continues to cause concern around the Co’s balance sheet. Swatch (-1.2%) and Richemont (-1.4%) are weighed on by a 3.5% YY decline in Swiss watch exports. In terms of other individual movers, Hugo Boss (-2.4%), Capita (-4.2%), TUI (-1.9%) trade near the foot of the Stoxx 600 amid negative broker action.

Top European News

  • U.K. November Retail Sales Decline in Worst Run Since 1996
  • Airbnb Wins EU Court Case Over French Real-Estate Rules
  • Italy Referendum Raises Spectre of Early Elections Again
  • German Lenders Start Sharing Branches in Cost-Cutting Move

In FX, the Aussie and Norwegian Krona are vying for pole position on the G10 grid following better than expected jobs data overnight and a final 2019 Norges Bank policy meeting that was fractionally less dovish than anticipated. Aud/Usd is back within striking distance of 0.6900, albeit off highs and hovering close to a decent option expiry at 0.6875 (1.1 bn), while Eur/Nok has maintained momentum under the psychological 10.0000 level and got close to support from early October (circa 9.9460) as the CB tweaked is rate path to flag 10 bp worth of tightening in 2022.

  • GBP/EUR – The next best majors or beneficiaries of a flagging Dollar, as the DXY drifts down from a 97.421 high to just shy of 97.250, with Cable able to reclaim 1.3100+ status even though UK retail sales fell far short of consensus and the single currency pivots 1.1125 amidst firmer Eurozone bond yields alongside another rise in market-based inflation expectations. Back to the Pound, perhaps some underlying impetus from reports that the EU already has a trade proposal in hand for the UK to consider a day after Brexit on January 31 next year, but more immediately CBI trades loom before the BoE at high noon with the focus on any further dovish dissent or a more united MPC in wake of the election.
  • JPY/CAD/CHF/NZD – All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, as Usd/Jpy continues meander above 109.50 and the Yen gleans little fresh direction from the BoJ keeping policy unchanged and an easing bias, while Usd/Cad hovers in a tight band on the 1.3100 handle ahead of Canadian AWE and wholesale trade data. Elsewhere, Usd/Chf is still straddling 0.9800 with the Franc not really responding to a wider Swiss trade surplus as key watch exports fell, and similarly Nzd/Usd failed to get any lasting or clear impetus from NZ GDP data for Q3 as firmer than forecast q/q growth was offset by a y/y miss sharp downgrade to the former for the previous quarter.
  • SEK – The Swedish Crown has been choppy between 10.4450-10.4805 parameters in wake of the Riksbank’s last hurrah for the year as a clearly signalled 25 bp repo rate hike was duly delivered, but not without 2 Board members voting against the move and with the accompanying statement caveated by the pledge to ease if the economy does not meet target.
  • EM – Yet more pain for the Turkish Lira, as Usd/Try extended further to the upside through mid-October peaks and the high for that month overall before fading a fraction below Fib resistance awaiting CBRT minutes and unfolding Turkish-US developments on the diplomatic front.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures remain flat within relatively narrow intraday parameters following the EIA-led upside seen across the complex yesterday. The former resides just under the USD 61/bbl mark, having traded on either side of its 100 WMA (USD 60.77/bbl) throughout APAC hours, while its Brent counterpart remains afloat above the USD 66/bbl mark after testing, but failing to breach support at the round figure overnight. Crude markets have seen little by way of fresh fundamental catalysts in recent days heading into the holiday period, albeit traders will be on the lookout for more “meat on the bones” regarding the China Phase One deal, given the lack of details post-announcement. That said, the thinned market conditions may prompt volatility in energy prices even with a lack of news-flow. Elsewhere, spot gold trades with mild losses and currently resides below the USD 1475/oz mark having dipping below its 50 DMA USD 1477.20/oz with technicians eyeing USD 1470-71/oz for potential support ahead if the 21 DMA at USD 1467.20/oz. Copper prices remain unchanged intraday below the USD 2.8/lb level given the tentative tone around the marketplace. Finally, Shanghai aluminium prices rose to their highest level in over three months and notched a third straight session of gains amid depleting stocks of the metal in Chinese warehouses.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Current Account Balance, est. $122.0b deficit, prior $128.2b deficit
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 8, prior 10.4
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 252,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.67m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 62.1; Bloomberg Economic Expectations, prior 51.5
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.05%, prior -0.1%
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.44m, prior 5.46m; Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -0.37%, prior 1.9%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

 

In spite of markets increasingly winding down for Christmas now, central banks are going to be back on the agenda today for some of the last major policy decisions of 2019. One of the main highlights will come from the Bank of England’s decision later, at what will be Governor Carney’s penultimate meeting before he leaves the BoE at the end of January. While the market isn’t expecting any changes in rates at today’s meeting, our UK economics team actually changed their BoE view earlier this week (link here), and now see a 25bp cut at the subsequent January meeting, with the MPC remaining on hold thereafter.

Ahead of today’s BoE decision, sterling fell -0.40% against the US dollar yesterday to close below $1.31 for the first time in over two weeks, where it remains this morning. The moves came amidst continuing concerns that the government’s pledge not to extend the Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020 will increase the chance that the UK ends up with another Brexit cliff-edge next year, as the UK could exit the transition period without reaching a trade agreement with the EU. Speaking of Brexit, today the Queen’s Speech is taking place here in the UK, which is where the monarch outlines the government’s agenda for the coming session of Parliament. Now that the Conservatives have a 80-seat majority in the House of Commons, in contrast to the previous hung Parliament, the government will have a considerably easier time when it comes to passing the legislation it wants to get through. That process will begin quickly, as Downing Street have said that the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to enact the Brexit deal will be returning to the House of Commons tomorrow.

The other main event to watch out for this morning is the Riksbank’s latest decision, where the consensus expectation is there’ll be an end to negative interest rates with a 25bp hike to 0%. Sweden has had negative rates since February 2015, but assuming the Riksbank hikes today, would be the first country to actually move out of them. It comes at a time when policymakers across Europe are increasingly taking note of the negative side effects of such policies.

Back to yesterday now, and the equity rally following the announcement of a US-China phase one deal petered out, with the S&P 500 breaking a run of 5 successive increases to close down -0.04%. The Dow Jones (-0.10%) also fell modestly, though the Nasdaq (+0.05%) managed to eke out a gain to reach a fresh record. We did get the news that the US House of Representatives had voted to impeach President Trump, but markets had little reaction thanks to Republican control of the Senate, where a two-thirds majority is necessary to remove the President from office, so it’s difficult to imagine that this will actually happen. Equity markets in Europe were a little weaker, with the STOXX 600 ending the session -0.13%, though German equities dragged on the index, with the DAX closing down -0.49%. Over in commodity markets, Brent crude was up +0.11% at a 3-month high.

In fixed income, sovereign debt sold off on both sides of the Atlantic, with 10yr Treasury yields up +3.7bps yesterday to 1.917%, their highest level in a month. Notably, the 2s10s curve was up +3.0bps to 28.4bps, which is the steepest the curve has been since November 2018. Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr bund yields closed +4.4bps, at their highest level in a month as well, while yields on OATs (+4.8bps) and BTPs (+6.5bps) also rose.

Sticking with the central bank theme, overnight the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged, with the policy balance rate remaining at -0.10% and the 10yr yield target at 0%. The BoJ’s statement said that “Japan’s economy is likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend, as the impact of the slowdown in overseas economies on domestic demand is expected to be limited”. It also said that “Downside risks concerning overseas economies seem to remain significant”, unlike in October where the statement said these downside risks “seemed to be increasing.” Moreover, the government’s recent fiscal stimulus announcement has further removed pressure on the BoJ to ease policy.

Elsewhere in Asia, equity markets are trading lower this morning, with the Nikkei (-0.27%), Shanghai Comp (-0.20%) Kospi (-0.18%) and the Hang Seng (-0.65%) all losing ground. In the US, S&P futures are down -0.04%.

Separately, Bloomberg reported this morning that the ECB might remove or downgrade the monetary analysis pillar in assessing the economy. Rather than focusing on money supply growth, the article cited officials who said that examining credit or monetary policy’s impact on financial stability could be more appropriate. The rationale according to the officials is that money supply growth has been of little guidance when it comes to inflation.

There wasn’t much in the way of data yesterday, though we did get the December Ifo survey from Germany, which beat expectations as the business climate indicator rose to 96.3 (vs. 95.5 expected), its highest level since June. In a promising sign, both the expectations (93.8) and the current assessment (98.8) readings rose on last month, and the increase contrasts with the flash composite PMI for Germany on Monday, which remained at 49.4 in December, still in contractionary territory.

We also had a number of inflation prints from around the world. In the UK, the November CPI inflation rate remained below the BoE’s 2% target at +1.5% (vs. +1.4% expected), while core CPI also stayed at +1.7%. Looking at the Euro Area, the final November CPI reading was confirmed at +1.0%, in line with the flash estimate. In spite of stubbornly low inflation there, interestingly we did see five-year forward five-year inflation swaps for the Euro Area rise to 1.3075% yesterday, closing above 1.30% for the first time in 3 months.

Finally, New York Fed President Williams said in a CNBC interview that “I do think where we’ve got monetary policy is in the right place”. Later on we also heard from Chicago Fed President Evans, who said that he was “personally worried that inflation has been too low”, and he said that overshooting the inflation target would “further reinforce a view that our objective is in fact symmetric”.

To the day ahead now, and as mentioned central banks will be the highlight, with decisions from the Bank of England and the Riksbank out today, along with the Banco de México this evening. We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Lane, and get the minutes from the Reserve Bank of India’s December meeting. Data releases include French business confidence for December, UK retail sales for November, and from the US, we can expect Q3’s current account balance, November’s existing home sales and leading index, and December’s Philadelphia Fed business outlook. Finally in the US, tonight sees the latest Democratic presidential primary debate, and as mentioned there’s the Queen’s Speech taking place in the UK.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.02 POINTS OR 0.02%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 19.06 POINTS OR 0.20%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 69.58 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .21%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0098 /Oil UP TO 60.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.11 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0098 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0038 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea/USA

The USA’s attempt to get South Korea to pay for its $5 billion price tag for troops stationed in the peninsula

(zerohedge)

Last Minute South Korea-US Troop Cost-Sharing Talks Fail, Deal To Expire

With the nation’s attention focused on impeachment, a major development in Korea has been largely absent from media focus, which could have lasting devastating consequences going forward, especially considering we are perhaps days away from Pyongyang’s promised “Christmas gift” — which is likely to come in the form of a long-range ballistic missile test.

The Trump administration’s new nearly $5 billion price tag given to South Korea in early November to cover its share of the costs of housing American troops, which have been stationed on the peninsula as a deterrent against the north via US Indo-Pacific Command forces since 1957, led to two days of last minute negotiation efforts this week.

These negotiations have ended in failure on Wednesday, with no more talks scheduled before the existing deal expires on December 31.

 

US Army, South Korean troops file image.

The talks were led by South Korea’s chief negotiator Jeong Eun-bo and his US counterpart, James DeHart, and are expected to continue in January. While a retroactive agreement could be reached, there’s growing popular anger among the South Korean population and leadership over the Trump administration’s apparent intractable position on the matter.

In a potential softening by the US side, DeHart told reporters after Wednesday’s meeting that “($5 billion) is not a number we are currently focused on in the negotiations … when we reach an agreement, we will be in a position to explain that number and how we got there.”

Reuters notes that “Some experts, both US and Korean, have warned that if no agreement is reached, it could throw the entire future of the US presence in South Korea into doubt.”

And AntiWar.com’s Jason Ditz observes that Trump could be overplaying his hand on this one:

President Trump’s last minute demands for a massive increase could be shaping up to be a huge mistake, as South Korea was already paying more than most nations do for US troops, and had agreed to a more modest increase. Getting from $800 million per year to around $1 billion per year was one thing, but Trump’s zero-hero demand for $5 billion per year angered many in South Korea.

 

And Seoul could leverage its increasing opening and bettered military ties with China to get the US to back down from massive price hike:

The US didn’t do a good job of justifying this unprecedented increase, either, with administration officials arguing that South Korea is rich and therefore could afford it. With South Korea working on improved military ties with China and making peace overtures to North Korea, however, it isn’t clear that what they could afford is even necessary.

Last month US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters at a briefing in Seoul that South Korea is “a wealthy country and could and should pay more” for the deployment of US forces on its soil.

Prior to the massive nearly $5BN price hike, South Korea already agreed to pay $920 million annually to maintain the roughly 29,000 US troops in the country.

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China

China is facing a huge $400 billion liquidity hole exactly what the USA is facing

(zerohedge)

China Is Facing A $400 Billion “Liquidity Hole” In January

It’s not just the US which is facing an unprecedented liquidity crunch as a result of a shortage of reserves, which threatened to lock up the all-important repo market:China is also facing a potentially destabilizing “liquidity hole” of 2.8 trillion yuan ($400 billion) in January according to Guotai Junan Securities, as people across the nation will withdraw cash for the Lunar New Year holiday. That, according to Bloomberg, means bond traders expect the central bank to unlock funds to avoid the liquidity-driven panic seen in October, when the benchmark 10-year yield spiked the most in six months.

And just like in the US, where the Fed responded by backstopping nearly $500 billion in liquidity in the form of term and overnight repos to help dealers and banks bridge the gap to 2020, some analysts expect the People’s Bank of China to ease aggressively in the coming weeks, by cutting the RRR rate, reducing the amount of cash lenders must hold as reserves. It could also opt to inject funds through its daily open-market operations, according to others. But, as Bloomberg notes, no analyst is calling for a massive net liquidity injection or a benchmark interest-rate cut, as Beijing won’t want to risk inflating prices when the consumer price index is at a seven-year high largely due to soaring pork prices due to China’s ongoing struggle with the consequences of “pig ebola.”

“Bonds will get a short-term boost next month as China may cut reserve ratios to offset the liquidity drainage,” said Overseas-Chinese Banking economist Tommy Xie, adding that just like the Fed’s Not QE is not really QE4 (spoiler alert: it is), this can’t be viewed as the start of a broad easing cycle. “The central bank just wants to tailor the solution to the liquidity problem. The long-term outlook for the debt market will still hinge on China’s economy and the trade negotiations.”

Just like in the US, where year-end liquidity disappears every year due to balance sheet window dressing and regulatory requirements, in China cash supply tends to drain ahead of the week-long holiday, which in 2020 falls at the end of January, when households and corporates typically withdraw money from banks to pay for gifts and travel.

 

That alone will drain 1.5 trillion yuan from the financial system next month, Guotai Junan analysts wrote.

Another 1.3 trillion yuan will be drained due to factors such as banks buying newly issued local government bonds, according to China’s second-largest brokerage.

As we noted in October, when we pointed out that China’s bond market faces turmoil amid a maturity deluge, more than 2 trillion yuan in notes mature in 2020, and fresh debt to refinance the borrowing thus shoring up economic growth will probably start hitting the market soon.

Anticipating a potential liquidity crunch, in November China ordered local governments to speed up the issuance of “special bonds” earmarked for infrastructure projects.

And while the Fed has been addressing the liquidity shortfall largely through “temporary” repo operations, at least until the complaints from the Dealer community grew too loud and forced Powell to start buying up $60 billion in T-Bills every month to permanently inject liquidity, China’s easing has been similarly targeted with the central bank cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1% before the holiday in 2019, while also injecting more than 1 trillion yuan via open-market operations over a week. Similarly in 2018, a targeted RRR cut also went into effect before the celebrations, and thanks to the fresh liquidity, China’s 10-year sovereign yield dipped in the month before Lunar New Year in both years.

Already the PBOC is starting to gradually boost liquidity: on Wednesday, the PBOC injected a net 200 billion yuan into the financial system via reverse repurchase agreements (the Chinese equivalent of a US repo is called a “reverse repo”) after skipping those operations for 20 sessions. It also lowered the rate on 14-day reverse repos to 2.65% from 2.7%.

Quoted by Bloomberg, Citi economist Liu Li-gang said the central bank will cut RRR to unleash cash because it “can immediately inject massive liquidity to the system.” Meanwhile, Nomura’s chief China economist, Lu Ting, said Beijing is more likely to offer medium-term loans to banks instead.

In both cases, however, rising consumer prices, fueled by the surging cost of pork, are seen capping how much liquidity Beijing can provide without further stoking inflation. This is something we discussed a month ago, when we said that the biggest issue facing the PBOC is how to trigger an economic boost, and add liquidity, without sending near record food prices even higher. While in early November, the PBOC modestly, and at long last, cut one of the central bank’s main lending rates (the MLF) by a tiny 5bps after the Fed had eased three times in 4 months …

… analysts are concerned that the PBOC will likely refrain from aggressive intervention in the market until food inflation is under control, amid fears of growing social discontent over pork hyperinflation. As Bloomberg also notes, “while further monetary stimulus would help companies struggling with weakening demand, deflation and higher tariffs, even faster inflation would hurt households more.”

This policy dilemma has left investors in Chinese government bonds cornered, with the yield stuck in a 7-basis-point range over the past month.

 

To be sure, if one goes off the economy, which is growing at its slowest pace since the 1990s, rates are headed even lower. However, November data was more encouraging; add the phase-one trade deal agreed with the U.S. last week, and Beijing has even fewer reasons to go aggressive on stimulus measures.

It all means that after a brief spell in the sun in January, a rally in Chinese sovereign debt is unlikely to last, at least according to Bloomberg. Indeed, the return of risk appetite is already hurting the notes, with the 10-year yield rising to the highest level in a month on Tuesday. The rate climbed 1 basis point to 3.24% as of 5:14 p.m. in Shanghai.

“In 2020, the bond market will be torn by transitory improvements in sentiment, triggered by the trade deal and economic data, and concerns on long-term growth and risks such as defaults,” said David Qu, an economist for Bloomberg Economics.

Which brings us to the humorous conclusion from RaboBank’s Michael Every who summarizes the liquidity trends in the US and China and juxtaposes them against… Star Wars:

So all is well in China and yet they are short USD400bn…and all is well in the US, but they are short USD500bn over the same time-frame, requiring the Fed to step in big-time repo- and NOT-QE-wise. Note this USD900bn figure is what Disney hopes ‘The Rise of Skywalker’ will make at the box office over the period: coincidence, or is it The Farce moving things? And note that even if one starts writing without knowing where it’s all going to end, it’s still possible to end up with a better conclusion than insiders hint Star Wars IX director Jar Jar Abrams has.

END

China/Macau

Xi having witnessing problems with Hong Kong is now willing to make Macau the next financial powerhouse.

He is whistling “Dixie”

(zerohedge)

Is Xi About To Make Macau The Next Financial Powerhouse?  

China’s President Xi Jinping arrived in Macau, an autonomous region on the south coast of China, on Wednesday amid socio-economic turmoil in Hong Kong. Xi is expected to announce new economic packages for the area as a reward for its stability and support of the communist party, reported Bloomberg.

Qingqing_Chen@qingqingparis

arrives in . Local residents it’s a reward for protest-free city. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1173965.shtml 

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Xi will celebrate the 20th anniversary of Macau’s handover to China and had a straightforward message to the 670,000 people of the region, roughly half the size of Manhattan: obey our laws, and we’ll make you wealthy.

 

Xi spoke at Macau International Airport on Wednesday afternoon and applauded Macau’s “earnest implementation” of the “one country, two systems” framework — the same structure that governs Hong Kong.

“The achievements and progress Macau has made in the past two decades since its return to the motherland are a source of pride,” Xi said. “The beautiful blueprint for Macau’s future development needs our joint efforts.”

Bloomberg Next China

@next_china

JUST IN: China’s president Xi Jinping arrives in Macau to mark the 20th anniversary of its handover to China https://bloom.bg/2EwFn9a

Embedded video

Bloomberg notes that Xi could unveil several economic policies that could transform Macau into a financial powerhouse. One of those policies could be the establishment of a yuan-denominated financial market.

In the last six months, Macau has experienced little unrest, while Hong Kong, 30 miles away, has seen violent protests that have shocked the economy into a recession.

“While Hong Kong people can be mobilized by fighting for abstract value as democracy and freedom, Macau is ‘interest-oriented,'” said Ieong Meng U, an assistant professor at the University of Macau’s Department of Government and Public Administration. “Only very few government policies can trigger widespread social grievances.”

Macau’s stability is derived from its monopoly over the casino industry in China and close ties with the communist regime.

Even though Macau’s charter closely resembles Hong Kong’s, residents in the city cannot choose their leader. The new Macau Chief Executive Ho Iat-Seng will be sworn in on Friday by Xi. A 400-member election committee recently chose Iat-Seng

 

Steve Tsang, director of the University of London’s SOAS China, told Bloomberg that “the messaging is clear to Hong Kong and the rest of the world, but primarily to Hong Kong — there is a way out, there is an easy and good way out, and it’s called Macau…But what they completely and utterly fail to see, is that if Macau is the future, most people in Hong Kong will say, thank you very much, you can keep it for yourself.”

Macau has tightened up immigration checks and beefed up security forces to thwart any spillovers from Hong Kong.

China’s next move could transform Macau into a financial mecca that could put Hong Kong out of business.

Ross Gerber

@GerberKawasaki

Macau is the new and Xi will move Chinese financial power out of Hong Kong. This will be good for https://twitter.com/pdchina/status/1207300976014704642 

People’s Daily, China

@PDChina

Chinese President #XiJinping met with Chief Executive of #Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR) Chui Sai On Wednesday, saying the central government fully acknowledged Chui’s diligent work during his 10 years as the chief executive

Embedded video

CHINA/USA
INTERESTING: CHINA WANTS TO SIGN ON THEIR PHASE ONE TRADE DEAL WITH THE USA
(zerohedge)

China Talking With US On Signing Phase One Trade Deal

Gao Feng, a spokesman at the Chinese commerce ministry, told reporters on Thursday that China and the US have been in touch about the signing of the phase one trade deal, reported Reuters.

The deal was announced last week after being declared by President Trump on Twitter in October, although exact details remain secretive.

“After the official signing of the deal, the content of the agreement will be made public,” Gao said.

US trade representative Robert Lighthizer has said the US would lower tariffs on Chinese goods, and there will be a notable increase in Chinese purchases of farm products, like soybeans, pork, chicken, biofuels, and manufactured goods.

 

Lighthizer has also said that China has agreed to spend at least $200 billion over the next several years on US goods. This would include $40 billion to $50 billion in annual farm product purchases, well above the baseline of $24 billion in 2017 before the trade war began in early 2018.

Chinese officials have yet to confirm President Trump’s version of the trade deal, nevertheless, refuse to comment on their farm purchase commitments. China recently said it would increase imports of US wheat, rice, corn, energy, pharmaceuticals, and financial services.

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

“.. while the Ministry of Commerce (Mofcom) statement outlined ‘six priorities, plus one’, including ‘properly dealing with China-US trade disputes’, there was not a single mention of the deal, nor did the ministry expand on that aim.” https://twitter.com/scmpeconomy/status/1207289006209130497 

SCMP Economy@scmpeconomy

Trade war: China’s trade ministry fails to mention phase one deal as a priority for 2020, reports ⁦@orangewang_#china #tradewar #TradeDeal #China https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3042657/trade-war-chinas-trade-ministry-fails-mention-phase-one-deal 

We noted Wednesday that Tom Kehoe, an adviser to the US Department of Agriculture and Lighthizer, said the Chinese aren’t going to rush into agriculture purchases under the phase one deal.

“These are businesspeople,” Kehoe said.

“They are going to have to be in a competitive situation. Otherwise, they are not going to buy it.”

Kehoe said the Chinese had been more frequently sourcing farm products from Brazil and Argentina, where currencies have been weakened thanks to the global slowdown. The Chinese are going to source where farm goods are the most affordable, which at the moment is South America.

 

We’ve also highlighted how Lighthizer’s version of the deal could be impossible for the Chinese to fulfill. Former USDA Chief Economist and USTR agriculture negotiator, Joe Glauber, tweeted that $50 billion in agricultural purchases per year by China is impossible (a detailed explanation can be found on the thread below).

JoeGlauber–IFPRI@JoeGlauber1

1. So here is why I am skeptical about the size of the Phase 1 deal. US ag exports to China in FY 2017 were about $21.8 billion. Soybean exports accounted for $14.6 billion.

View image on Twitter Ads info and privacy

Besides agriculture products, the deal includes Chinese legal protections for patents, trademarks, copyrights, including more criminal and civil procedures to fight online infringement and counterfeit goods.

 

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The pound initially falls and then jumps on news that the BOE say have to enter a tightening mode

(zerohedge)

Pound Dumps And Jump As BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged In 7-2 Decision, Says “Tightening May Be Needed”

The Bank of England, which as reported previously was the source of countless leaks as HFT and Hedge Funds had secret access to one of its audio feeds, may or may not have leaked today’s rate decision, but it was hardly a surprise: the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 (as expected) in favor of maintaining rates at 0.75%, with doves Jonathan Haskel and Michael Saunders voted in favor of a 25bps cut, saying that with little room for looser policy, “risk management considerations favored a prompt response to downside risks.”

Bank of England

@bankofengland

MPC voted by a majority of 7-2 to keep at 0.75% https://b-o-e.uk/2S8fkx7

View image on Twitter
  • Vote split on the base rate: MPC votes 7-2 to stand pat on rates at 0.75%
  • Vote split on corporate bonds: MPC votes 9-0 to maintain the stock of corporate bonds at GBP 10bln
  • Vote split on APF: MPC votes 9-0 to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases at GBP 435bln

Coming in just days after the blowout Conservative victory which restored calm to the Brexit process by seemingly removing a no deal Brexit option, the bank signaled it would focus on the next phase of Brexit negotiations, as officially said it was too early to tell whether the clearer path for the U.K.’s departure from European Union on the back of Boris Johnson’s election win will improve sentiment.

“It was possible that household and business sentiment could pick up in the near term,” the bank said in minutes of its December meeting. “Further out, the responses of companies and households would depend on developments in the next stage of the Brexit process, including negotiations about the nature of, and the transition to, the U.K.’s future trading relationships.”

The announcement sent cable instantly lower after the BOE cut its projection for fourth-quarter growth to 0.1% from 0.2% and said it still expects inflation to slow to around 1.25% in the spring, well below the 2% target. The bank singled out business investment and export orders which have remained weak even as “household consumption has continued to grow steadily.” Adding to the dovish case, the BOE also repeated that monetary policy may need to add stimulus if Brexit uncertainty remains entrenched or global growth failed to stabilize.

However, cable then staged an instant reversal as traders focused on a hint by the bank that rate hikes may not be too far off, as the BOE said that should the economy perform broadly in-line with the MPC’s latest projections, “some modest tightening of policy, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, may be needed to maintain inflation sustainably at the target.” The bank would revisit its forecasts next month.

The meeting is the first since Johnson’s decisive victory last week, and officials noted a reduction in domestic political uncertainty.

 

As Bloomberg notes, today’s decision means the BOE’s key rate has stayed at 0.75% throughout 2019, as U.K. officials stayed out of a wave of global easing that saw their peers in the US, Eurozone and elsewhere lower borrowing costs amid concerns over trade tensions and a global slowdown. That said, traders expect the BOE to act next year, with money markets pricing in around an 80% probability of the central bank cutting by December 2020. Some economists see a move coming as soon as the first quarter.

Some more details from the report:

  • Overview: Since the previous meeting, economic data have been broadly inline with the November report. The partial de-escalation of the US-China trade war provides some additional support to the outlook, relative to November.
  • Rate guidance: MPC reiterated that monetary policy could respond in either direction in order to hit its inflation target. Monetary policy could be required if global growth fails to stabilize and Brexit uncertainties remain entrenched. However, should these risks not materialize and the economy performs broadly in-line with the MPC’s projection, gradual and limited rate rises could be needed.
  • Brexit: MPC recaps the assumptions of the November MPR that there will be an orderly transition to a deep free trade agreement between the UK and the EU.
  • Domestic growth: Q3 GDP printed at 0.3% and is expected to come in at 0.1% in Q4. Household consumption has continued to grow steadily, but business investment and export orders remain weak.
  • Inflation: CPI remained at 1.5% in November and core CPI remained at 1.7%, broadly as expected. MPC reiterates that the headline rate is expected to fall to around 1.25% by the spring, owing to the temporary effects of falls in regulated energy and water prices.
  • Labor market: There have been some signs that the labor market has been loosening, although it remains tight and employment growth is around its record high.

Finally, hanging over the meeting was speculation about the identity of the successor to Carney, who is due to leave the bank at the end of next month. The appointment process has been long and delayed by the election, but investors are now awaiting a decision as soon as today.

end

Fascinating: a backup audio feed was used to secretly leak confidential information to crooked hedge funds on Bank of England statements to be issued

(zerohedge)

Bank Of England “Hijacked” Audio Feed Was Used To Secretly Leak Confidential Information To Hedge Funds

Over the past few years there had been numerous allegations in both the trading community and among the media that critical UK data releases were being mysteriously leaked ahead of time. Back in 2017, Reuters reported that “unusual sterling moves often precede UK data releases“, explaining that “on eight occasions over the past 12 months, the pound has moved against the dollar in the minutes before the release of the retail sales numbers, correctly anticipating the direction the currency took once the figures were published” adding that “this has been true even when the retail sales data have gone against the Reuters poll market consensus, leading to speculation among traders about the possibility of leaks of the information before its official publication.”

One such example took place on Feb. 17, 2017 when sterling fell by around 20 ticks to $1.2440 in the space of around 15 seconds, around three minutes before the release of the numbers for January. When the figures were published by the ONS, they showed sales had been much weaker than economists had expected, sending sterling down further.

A similar pattern was found to have occurred in seven of the other 12 months for which Reuters analyzed trading data. The moves in sterling were most notable in January, November, October, July and April as well as in February. In five of those months, the official figures were significantly weaker or stronger than forecasts by economists.

Foreign exchange traders posted messages on Twitter saying they believed that the data had been leaked ahead of time, a regular refrain after the monthly retail sales figures.

 

David Woolcock, chair of the committee of professionalism at the Association Cambiste Internationale Financial Markets Association, a body representing foreign exchange dealers, said his review of the analysis suggested either that some investors were very good at predicting what the data would show, or that it was being leaked.

“Looking at the charts shown to me by Thomson Reuters it seems evident that either a very close correlation in private/public data has been discovered that is allowing traders to pre-position ahead of publication or a leak of the numbers is occurring,” he said.

A separate analysis by the Wall Street Journal of 207 releases of British inflation, industrial production and labor market data, showed that on 59.5% of occasions British government bond futures moved ahead of the data in what proved to be the right direction, confirming that someone was indeed leaking – and trading on – market-moving information ahead of its scheduled release time.  Alexander Kurov, an associate professor of finance at West Virginia University who conducted the analysis for the Wall Street Journal, told the newspaper it was “very unlikely that we are looking at a random pattern.”

But where was the leak taking place? As the WSJ noted, the ONS provides a preview of the retail sales figures before their publication to 41 people at the Bank of England, the business ministry, Cabinet Office, Downing Street and the Treasury. Those people had access to the data 24 hours ahead of publication.

Meanwhile, as part of the now infamous reporter “lock up”, around a dozen journalists from news agencies including Reuters have access to the data around 40 minutes ahead of publication to help them prepare articles ready to go when the data hits the feed. However, they are only given the information in a locked room without Internet or phone access and under the supervision of ONS staff.

It now appears that we know who the culprit was.

In a press release issued late on Wednesday, the Bank of England said that following concerns raised with the Bank, “we have recently identified that an audio feed of certain of the Bank press conferences – installed only to act as a back-up in case the video feed failed – has been misused by a third party supplier to the Bank since earlier this year to supply services to other external clients.”

This wholly unacceptable use of the audio feed was without the Bank’s knowledge or consent, and is being investigated further”, the central bank said.

The BOE’s shocking admission was in response to a report earlier in the day by the Times, according to which hedge funds had been eavesdropping on the Bank of England’s press conferences before they are officially broadcast after its internal systems were “hijacked.”

As the BOE has since confirmed, the Times report alleged that the central bank has discovered that one of its suppliers has been sending “an audio feed of its press conferences to high-speed traders who hope to profit by acting on the governor’s comments before the rest of the world.

While the company that was behind the audio feed hijacking was not named, “the third-party supplier is understood to be connected to a market news service that promises clients will gain an edge over rival traders in a field where getting information microseconds before others can generate huge profits.” While the Bank’s official video feed of press conferences is managed by Bloomberg, the Bank employed contractors to install a separate back-up audio feed several years ago in case the video feed went down. It was never intended to be used by an outsider unless the video failed, and yet for an unknown number of HFTs, it became the primary source of information, and countless profits.

While the BoE said that the gross insider trading started “earlier this year”, according to the Times, the supplier hacked into the audio feed since “at least the start of this year”, which means the leaks could have been going on for years, and was meant to provide the service to one of its other companies. That service is then sold on to high-speed companies, giving client traders an invaluable edge over everyone when it comes to the most market-moving of events.

 

According to the Times, since audio is easier to compress than video, hijacking the backup feed gave paying clients a five to eight-second head start on the rest of the market; in other words, a license to print money in violation of every known insider trading rule known to man.

The Bank said that it had “disabled the third-party supplier’s access”. A spokesman added: “This wholly unacceptable use of the audio feed was without the Bank’s knowledge or consent, and is being investigated further”.

Since UK data leaks had been known for almost three years, it’s about time the BOE finally realized that it itself was the source of the leaks. As for the company intermediating all of this, we are confident that they already have moved their money to a non-extradition jurisdiction. The unnamed market news service was selling these feeds charges between £2,500 and £5,000 a press conference for each client in addition to a subscription fee.

The revelation that the Bank of England’s systems were abused to give HFT traders an advantage over everyone else will be a huge embarrassment because one of the bank’s roles is to support fair and efficient markets. BOE head Mark Carney is due to leave the Bank on January 31 and will become the United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance on a token $1 a year for the part-time role. His successor could be announced as soon as tomorrow.

While the news may explain why there was no allegations of any information leaks ahead of the latest BOE report, it also explains why there have been recurring instances of clients trading on what appears to be inside information, and it now appears the BOE itself was the culprit.

And while the BOE may finally be cracking down on insider trading, after an unknown set of clients has already made millions if not billions in illicit profits, consider that high-speed audio services are also offered for press conferences at the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Canada. Just how much money was made by hedge funds who had found a way to hijack backup feeds at all these central banks. We doubt we will ever find out, especially if the central bankers in question plan on ending up as employees of said hedge funds after their tenure is completed. It almost makes one wonder what “quid pro quo” helped propel former Fed chair Ben Bernanke to the role of senior advisor at the world’s foremost HFT operation, Ken Griffin’s Citadel.

END

Andnow the probable company behind the leak: Statisma..they claim in advertising that you hear it first on their network..at least it is not false advertising.

(zerohedge)

Is This The Company Behind The Bank of England Audio Leaks?

Last night we reported that The Bank of England disabled an audio feed of post-monetary policy decision press conferences after admitting an earlier report by the Times that it was used to give HFT traders, who were paying clients of an unnamed “third-party” feed supplier, a trading advantage, also known as frontrunning orderflow.

The feed, which was installed only as a back-up in case the primary video feed hosted by Bloomberg failed, “has been misused by a third party supplier to the Bank since earlier this year to supply services to other external clients,” the central bank said in a Wednesday statement.

“This wholly unacceptable use of the audio feed was without the Bank’s knowledge or consent, and is being investigated further,” the BOE added.

Naturally, the audio feed was shut down before today’s monetary policy statement which left rates unchanged.

 

And while the BOE didn’t identify the third-party supplier, in a follow up article on Thursday, the WSJ reported that Statisma News and Data, an audio-delivery tech company, covered public events in the U.K. since 2010, including Bank of England news conferences. The company said in a statement published on its website Thursday: “We DO NOT carry embargoed information and we DO NOT release information without it first being made available to the public.” A Statisma spokesman couldn’t be reached for further comment.

A YouTube account that purported to be from Statisma News posted videos of central bank conferences and other market-moving announcements over the last year. Some of the posted videos contained links to charts showing currency moves during the speeches. Among them were fluctuations in the euro during European Central Bank speeches, and the pound during Bank of England speeches.

Suggesting that this was indeed the company responsible for making HFT-heavy hedge funds such as Millennium and Citadel even richer, on April 29, the WSJ reported that a tweet from an account linked to Statisma’s website enticed customers to watch government news conferences through its feed. Hear the news first…up to 10 seconds faster than watching them live on TV,” the tweet said.

Another tweet, posted Nov. 7, the same day that BOE governor Mark Carney was set to speak, said, “Sign up for a free trial at statisma.com to hear him first.”

Well, at least they were not engaging in false advertising. That said, the tweets which was taken down Thursday, were in retrospect not a good idea.

Did Statisma have access to “backup” feeds at other central banks? In a Dec 12 feed, Statisma boasted “Q&A for Christine Lagarde’s first ECB Press Conference starting now. Sign up for a free trial at statisma.com to hear it first

Statisma News@StatismaComms

Q&A for Christine Lagarde’s first ECB Press Conference starting now

Sign up for a free trial at http://statisma.com  to hear it first

View image on Twitter

For those wondering if the Fed was also hacked, all signs point to yes.

Statisma News@StatismaComms

Federal Reserve Chair House Budget Committee hearing on now

Sign up for a free trial at http://statisma.com  to hear him first.

View image on Twitter
endT

FRANCE

Trade unions illegally cut power to the Bank of France, homes and other companies as they are angry on pension reform

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA/GERMANY

The uSA has now given up on its attack on the new Nord Stream Pipeline which initiates in Russia and travels through to Germany and other parts of Europe.  The uSA does not want to give strength to Russia

(zerohedge)

US Concedes Defeat On Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Even As Sanctions Passed

A new Bloomberg headline reads “U.S. Concedes Defeat on Gas Pipeline It Sees as Russian Threat” just following new sanctions included in the House and Senate passed 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) this week.

But two administration officials tell Bloomberg it’s too little too late, despite Trump’s heightened rhetoric of calling Germany “a captive to Russia” and charging Berlin with essentially giving “billions” of dollars to Russia:

Senior U.S. administration officials, who asked not to be identified discussing the administration’s take on the project, said sanctions that passed Congress on Tuesday as part of a defense bill are too late to have any effect. The U.S. instead will try to impose costs on other Russian energy projects, one of the officials added.

 

Image via nord-stream2.com/Unian

The Bloomberg report sees this as a rare admission of defeat:

The admission is a rare concession on what had been a top foreign-policy priority for the Trump administration and highlights how European allies such as Germany have been impervious to American pressure to abandon the pipeline. It also shows how the U.S. has struggled to deter Russia from flexing its muscles on issues ranging from energy to Ukraine to election interference.

The resolution contained in the defense spending bill, expected to be immediately signed into law by Trump, are measures which specifically target companies assembling the pipeline  a last ditch US effort to block the controversial 760-mile, $10.2BN project that would allow Russia to export natural gas directly to Germany, depriving Ukraine of badly needed gas transit fees along the current route for Russian supplies.

Washington’s position has long been that it weakens European energy security, while Merkel’s Germany has rejected Trump’s “meddling” in European energy affairs, which the Europeans have lately sought to diversify.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a February visit to Poland said Nord Stream 2 ultimately “funnels money to Russians in ways that undermine European national security.”

 

Via Bloomberg

It’s expected to double Russian gas shipments to the EU’s biggest economy Germany, while others fear — including dissenters within Merkel’s own ruling coalition  it will give Moscow significant geopolitical leverage over Europe while also punishing Ukraine.

The new US sanctions measures will target executives of companies operating vessels laying the pipeline, and will further seek to hinder those companies’ ability to operate on the project. It’s been spearheaded by Russian giant Gazprom and five European energy companies, including French electricity and gas firm Engie SA and Royal Dutch, and the Swiss company Allseas Group SA, among others, and is nearing completion, expected soon this coming year.

 

Bloomberg reports further, “Trump has indicated that he’ll sign the legislation passed Tuesday. The penalties on companies building the project, led by Russian energy company Gazprom PJSC, would be effective immediately, according to a Senate Republican aide.”

In total, continues Bloomberg, “Some 350 companies are involved in building the undersea link, most notably the Swiss company Allseas Group SA, whose ships are laying the last section of pipe in Danish waters.”

Regardless, Gazprom head Alexei Miller has for months said it’s “past the point of no return” and that nothing would derail it. “We are working from the idea that Nord Stream 2 will be realized strictly in accordance with the planned timetable,” he previously told shareholders.

END
TURKEY/LIBYA/EGYPT
Today, we witness Egypt coming to the aid of the Hafter/USA group against Turkey.
(zerohedge)_

Turkey To Establish Military Base In Libya As Egypt Threatens Its Own Intervention

Turkey’s involvement in the ongoing Libyan war between Benghazi-based General Khalifa Haftar and the UN-recognized Tripoli GNA government is set to grow.

Following a recent military agreement between Turkey and Tripoli, and as Haftar’s forces threaten attack on any Turkish plane or ship, it’s expected the Turkish military will set up a base in the war-torn country. Middle East Monitor reports of the latest developments:

Turkey is set to establish a military base in Libya, according to Turkish media reports earlier this week, as President Recep Tayyip weighs up the possibility of intervention in the country’s civil war.

Yeni Shafak reported on Monday that the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish parliament had approved a recent agreement between Turkey and Libya on military cooperation. It also includes provisions for launching a “quick reaction force” if requested by the Libyan government.

 

Turkish special forces file image, via Pinterest. 

The exact location for the proposed base has not been revealed, but it will likely be in the vicinity of Tripoli, given that’s where they key front line fighting has been as part of Haftar’s LNA forces offensive on the capital.

The deal was initially touted by Ankara as primarily for oil and gas exploration off Libya’s coast and in the eastern Mediterranean, but was later revealed to include close military cooperation agreements.

Addressing the controversial deal in statements made early this week President Erdogan told a pro-government news channel“We will be defending the rights of Libya and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.” Already there are unconfirmed reports in Arabic media that Turkish special forces have landed in Tripoli.

But crucially, neighboring Egypt, which has long backed east Libyan strongman Haftar, has condemned the Turkey-Tripoli GNA deal as “illegitimate” and has even signaled its own military intervention could come.

On Tuesday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi warned in the wake of the Turkey-Libya agreement“We will not allow anyone to control Libya… it is a matter of Egyptian national security.”

 

Given the heightened proxy war nature of the conflict, now threatening to draw in regional powers angered over what they see as illegal Turkish incursion in their own backyard, some geopolitical observers are warning of a new war between Egypt and Libya, with Turkish military involvement.

Ironically, throughout this build-up a UN arms embargo has remained in effect on all warring sides of Libya; however, clearly few are paying much attention to this, especially the UAE, Egypt, and Turkey.

6.Global Issues

SWEDEN

For the first time in 5 years Sweden will abandon NIRP as they raise their rates

(zerohedge)

After Five Years, Sweden Is About To Wave Goodbye To Negative Rates

In a few hours, at 10am GMT, Sweden is about to wave goodbye to the land of negative rates, if only for a little while.

After the Swedish Riksbank cut rates as low as -0.5%, where it kept them for nearly three years, from 2016 until the start of 2019, when it hiked by 25bps on January, the Swedish Central bank is almost unanimously expected to hike rates by 25bps to 0.0% according almost all analysts polled by Reuters, putting its experiment with NIRP in the rearview mirror, at least until the next cut by the ECB drags it right back under.

As RanSquawk previews, if the Riksbank does hike as expected, focus will turn to if this is as their October repo path indicates a one-and-done increase to move out of negative rates, as well as the magnitude of opposition to the hike. This meeting includes a press conference which will begin at 10:00GMT.

 

Previous Meeting

In October, the Riksbank left rates unchanged at -0.25% but clearly signaled that the rate would ‘most probably’ be hiked to 0.0% in December’s meeting. Additionally, their forecast for the repo rate was downgraded, and now indicates that the rate will ‘be unchanged for a prolonged period after the expected rise in December’. In the post-meeting press conference,  Governor Ingves said that negative rates were an exceptional measure and it is appropriate to gradually exit from negative rates.

Minutes & Rhetoric

While the October meeting and conference illustrated a desire to hike, the minutes were less in-fitting with this and highlighted a split amongst the board. Most notably, Skingsley said it is justifiable to ask whether it is appropriate to increase rates at all and one member expressed hesitance at hiking around year-end; instead, argued for such a move to be further down the forecast period.

Aside from the minutes, remarks out of the Riksbank has been fairly light; the most pertinent of comments, which question the December move, arising from Jansson stating that if the rate was to increase around year-end it may be perceived as the Bank deviating from its mandate. While not rhetoric in the traditional sense, the Central Bank Financial Market Survey indicated that several participants believe a less expansionary policy would improve the function of FX and Fixed income markets. Overall, while the pushback from the more Dovish members of the Riksbank is unlikely to be sufficient to alter the flagged hike it does open-up the potential for dissenters.

 

Data

The most pertinent release has been November’s CPIF which beat market expectation printing at 1.7% which is crucially in-line with the Riksbanks November forecast (1.71%); which according to Nordea emphasizes the likelihood of a December hike. Other metrics have been more downbeat, and do not support the planned hike, such as PMIs, Q3 GDP and November’s unemployment rate which rose from 6.0% to 6.8%. That said, Swedish labor market data has been affected by errors recently which ING suggests may lead to the Riksbank treating this with some skepticism. Overall, the domestic data front is not conducive to an interest rate increase, as such consensus is for any hike to be a one-off move, as the October forecast path suggested.

Deputy Governor Breman

Since the previous meeting Anna Breman has been appointed as Deputy Governor to replace af Jochnick, Breman will be partaking in the December policy meeting. Breman has previously expressed concern regarding a weak SEK and believes the Riksbank, with negative rate policy, has a limited tool-kit in the scenario of an economic downturn. For reference, Nordea highlight that her monetary policy stance is difficult to categorise and she is likely to follow the majority initially which, overall, makes the board more hawkish.

END
BOLIVIA
Bolivia issues an arrest warrant for exiled president Morales on “sedition and terrorism” charges
(zerohedge)

Bolivia Issues Arrest Warrant For Exiled President Morales On “Sedition & Terrorism”

Turmoil intensified inside Bolivia on Wednesday as the country’s top prosecutor issued an arrested warrant on “terrorism” charges for former President Evo Morales, also accusing the recently ousted leader of encouraging sedition from abroad.

First given political asylum in Mexico, but now in Argentina, Morales has claimed he was target of a military coup with the orchestration of Washington and regional enemies of Bolivia.

Interior Minister Arturo Murillo first brought the charges following fierce clashes in the capital and other cities between police and his supporters. Ratcheting violence in the wake of his ouster early last month has left at least 35 dead, according to prosecutors. They blame the deaths and continuing violence on Morales’ continued “seditious” speeches and messages from abroad.

This also after interim president Áñez said he must “answer to justice” over alleged election fraud and government corruption, following the mayhem of his last reelection, where an independent body charged him and his administration with being behind mass irregularities.

Morales is being blamed for stoking the mayhem, which allegedly involved him giving orders from exile to blockade cities to force to removal of interim President Jeanine Áñez. Evo supporters say she had illegally seized power in a unilateral power move to control the Senate and secure her leadership over the country.

The former president has since been blocked from running for office again, though Áñez’s administration has voiced concern that he plans to use Buenos Aires as a political headquarters to eventually bring himself back into power.

Arturo Murillo

@ArturoMurilloS

Sr. @evoespueblo para su conocimiento

View image on Twitter

Interior Minister Arturo Murillo shared a photo of the arrest warrant on social media and has in prior statements personally vowed to put him behind bars “for the rest of his life”. He’s further called the former leader a “terrorist” for actions before and after leaving office.

At the start of the counter-protests led by Evo backers the US embassy was forced to evacuate all non-essential personnel after the socialist demonstrators vowed to reject the “right-wing coup”. Washington immediately voiced support for Evo’s ouster, calling it a major advancement of Democracy in Latin America.

From Buenos Aires, the left-wing populist leader Morales who has been praised by Venezuela’s Maduro, vowed to “continue fighting for the poor” as leader of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party inside Bolivia.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Strong evidence that the shale industry is turning to dust

(Anes Alic/OilPrice.com)

From Boom To Bust: Permian Shale Towns Face Exodus

Authored by Anes Alic via OilPrice.com,

Perhaps it’s not evident to anyone who is not an oil-worker living in America’s biggest shale towns, but signs of the shale slowdown predicted by many analysts, and the EIA itself, are already surfacing in the form of vacant hotels, a dip in home prices, a noticeable reduction in overtime hours for oil workers, and a change in standards for hiring. 

Texas’ Permian basin lost 400 jobs in the first 10 months of this year, according to the Dallas Morning News, and fracking contractor Superior Energy Services Inc. alone announced in late November that it had cut 112 jobs from its Permian Pumpco unit.

This is in stark contrast to the first 10 months of 2018, when the Permian added 16,700 jobs. 

According to the Dallas Federal Reserve’s “Permian Basin Economic Indicators” from November 27 this year, oil production reached a new high in September, though the rig count slipped and drilling has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years.

Not only are frack crews for well completions in the Permian down more than 20% this year, according to the Dallas Morning News, citing Primary Vision Inc., but oilfield services companies are firing people–from National Oilwell Varco to Halliburton and RPC.

The Greater Houston Partnership said in a December report that Houston is facing a situation that is “eerily similar to what it faced after the 1980s bust — an oversaturated real estate market, a bleak outlook for oil and gas, and the need for innovation to drive the economy forward”.

To that end, it’s putting its hope in other industries–not oil and gas–as it forecasts the disappearance of 4,000 oil jobs by the end of 2020. 

Why is Houston important when it isn’t even in the shale patch itself? Because this is the financial and corporate hub for many of those shale operations, and the job cutbacks are expected to hit investment banks and trucking firms in Houston.

Speaking to Bloomberg in late November, a Texas shale CEO and veteran fracker described the industry as “in shambles”, and questioned predictions of strong U.S. production growth in 2020. It doesn’t seem to reflect the reality that producers have been cut off from funding, share prices are dismal, and public offerings are being ignored entirely.

The EIA forecasted a production increase of 1 million barrels per day in 2020. But in mid-December, the agency said that production in the Permian, for instance, would only increase by 48,000 bpd in January 2020–the smallest increase since July this year. Bakken will see a negligible increase, and Eagle Ford will see a decrease.

And if we move to the Marcellus and Utica shales, which span Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, we see giant Chevron pulling up stakes entirely, putting its 890,000 acres up for sale after these operations accounted for more than 50% of a massive impairment charge of around $11 billion for the supermajor in Q4 this year.

The reality, it seems, is very different on the ground. 

The first sign of a slowdown outside of the actual shale numbers is this: Home prices have dipped, and home sales have flattened. In October, median home prices fell 2.6% from August, while monthly home sales fell 3.6% from September.

The Wall Street Journal tells a similar slowdown story, but in the form of empty hotels. 

Citing hospitality benchmarking firm STR Inc., the WSJ notes that the hotel business was booming until this year, when occupancy in the first 10 months of the year fell 14%.

In October, news started emerging from West Texas about suddenly cheap hotel rooms and unusual vacancies.

It seemed rather sudden because just in Q2, rooms that had been $800 a night were down to $250 a night.

To many, that’s one of the biggest signs of the times, even if it doesn’t exactly mean that hotels are going to be closing down. They just aren’t going to be basking in the overpriced room boom next year, by most accounts. 

The slowdown, however, isn’t directly related to low oil prices. It’s the result of an adaptation in production company strategy.

Shale producers are under immense pressure to cater to shareholders and give back after all those years of sucking up funding in the shale boom frenzy. So now, producers are slowing both growth and spending in order to reward shareholders. That’s starting to make itself felt in everything from hotels to overtime for workers.

It’s no longer a free-for-all of spending, and the new normal of cautionary spending isn’t going to depress any of these shale economies, but it will likely bring them back down to earth. 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDONESIA

The Pig Ebola virus has now spread to Indonesia. This will force up prices on pork in this huge nation of 264 million people

(zerohedge)

“Very Serious” – 30,000 Pigs Dead As Pig Ebola Spreads In Indonesia’s North Sumatra

Last month more than 4,000 pigs died from African swine fever (ASF) in Indonesia’s North Sumatra province. The outbreak appears to be worsening in December with as many as 30,000 pigs dead, according to the province’s food security and livestock agency, reported Reuters.

Vincent ter Beek@vincenttb

The @OIEAnimalHealth has also confirmed the outbreaks of African Fever in North Sumatra province, Indonesia 🇮🇩. In total 392 villages got infected with , and over 28,000 were killed. Read more on @PigProgress and see the updated map ⏩ https://bit.ly/2Evj5Vr

View image on Twitter

The Agriculture Ministry has just declared an outbreak of ASF in the North Sumatra province of the country: “Very serious handling is being carried out, including isolating those areas,” the North Sumatra Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo told reporters on Wednesday.

For several months, carcasses have been found on roadways and rivers as farmers quickly discarded pigs out of fear of contagion would decimate their herds.

 

Indonesian authority burrying pigs in Danau Siombak village, in Medan -AFP

ASF was first detected in September in the province’s Dairi district. Government officials have deployed monitors to the 38 districts in the region to make sure the outbreak is contained.

Fadjar Sumping Tjatur Rassa, director of animal health at the Agriculture Ministry, said ASF had been found in 16 areas in North Sumatra, including Medan, the capital of Indonesia’s North Sumatra province.

In the 16 contaminated zones, the government has frozen all the transport of meat and meat products. Anyone who is in constant contact with infected herds must go trough bio-security screening, Rassa said.

Rassa said, “road traffic (for pork and its products) are temporarily closed for the infected areas,” adding that the province has a pig population of 1.2 million.

Reuters estimates that Indonesia produced 327,215 tons of pork last year. North Sumatra produces about 13% of the country’s pork, coming in at around 43,308 tons last year.

 

As seen in many ASF outbreaks in China, spot prices for pork could surge in Indonesia as a result of the recent pig deaths.

China’s pig herd was thinned out by more than half this year thanks to ASF, pushing spot prices of pork in the region to record levels.

There’s no word if ASF is contained in North Sumatra, nor if there were any transmission to wild boar – if there were, then this would mean ASF could spread to other provinces.

There was also no word if the ASF outbreak in the country is connected with China.

END

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1121 UP .0007 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.49 DOWN 0.069 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3123   UP   0.0010  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3123 UP .0008 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 7 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1121 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 0.02 POINTS OR 0.02% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 19.06 POINTS OR 0.20%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,21%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 19.06 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.02 POINTS OR .00%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 12% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 69.58  POINTS OR 0.29%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1474.50

silver:$16.95-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.95% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.38 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.35 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.41% UP 2  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -00%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.45%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,38 UP 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 93 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.24% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.62% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1124  UP     .0009 or 9 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.23 DOWN .322 OR YEN UP 32  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3028 DOWN .0059 POUND DOWN 59  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 11 basis points to 1.3126

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0103    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0015  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9431 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.90 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.34 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.36 DOWN 4  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 14.73  0.35%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 10.20 POINTS OR .08%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 12.68 POINTS 0.21%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN4.60 POINTS or 0.05%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 80.07 POINTS OR 0.34%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.30 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 66.53 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    62.39  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.28 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 28 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  61.22//

 

 

BRENT :  66.45

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.91…..DOWN ONE BASIS PT

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.35..FLAT..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1123 ( UP 8   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.29 DOWN .259 (YEN UP 26 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.37 DOWN 2 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3019 DOWN 65  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9430

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.42   UP 0.25 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 25 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3135 DOWN 10 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0103  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0001 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.24%

 

The Dow closed UP 137.68 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 59.49 POINTS OR 0.67%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.54 CLOSED DOWN .04

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.908%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks & VIX Decouple Ahead Of Op-Ex, Bond Dump-n-Pump Pattern Continues

Complacency just hit ’11’…

Chinese stocks were flat again, not experiencing the same exuberance as US markets…

Source: Bloomberg

Germany lagged among European stocks once again with Italy leading still…

Source: Bloomberg

US majors were all higher again today, melting up into tomorrow’s op-ex… Nasdaq and Small Caps are the week’s big winners so far…

Thanks to another opening short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite all the exuberance, it’s defensives that are more bid that cyclicals…

Source: Bloomberg

Tesla stock continued it short-squeeze to new highs, decoupling further from its bonds…

 Source: Bloomberg

VIX has dramatically decoupled from stocks in the last few days ahead of tomorrow’s big option expiration…

 Source: Bloomberg

As aggregate put volumes collapse relative to call volumes hit lowest since 2014…

 Source: Bloomberg

Will this be the inverse of the Dec 2018 lows?

 Source: Bloomberg

And at the same time, SKEW is back at its highest since September 2018…

 Source: Bloomberg

After 11 straight days higher, HYG (the HY Bond ETF) tumbled today (ex-dvnd)…

 Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were lower on the day (after spiking overnight once again) with the belly outperforming (5Y -2bps) and long-end lagging (30Y unchish)…

 Source: Bloomberg

But for the 4th day in a row, Treasury yields followed the same path of Asia buying, Europe selling, and US buying (post EU close)…

 Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve hit its steepest since Oct 2018…

 Source: Bloomberg

Which is more indicative of an imminent recession than the initial inversion…

 Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dipped marginally lower today, stalling at the Thursday night pre-plunge levels…

 Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos leaked back lower today after yesterday’s chaotic dump and pump…

 Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all higher on the day with oil and silver leading…

 Source: Bloomberg

Silver is holding above the payrolls plunge levels…

Gold too…

WTI topped $61, accelerating out of its uptrend…

 

 

 

 

And finally, investors are the most extremely greedy since September 2017…

Source: CNN

Bearish sentiment is back at cyclical lows and the spread between bulls and bears is soaring…

 Source: Bloomberg

Apart from The Fed’s balance sheet expansion, we can thank the collapse of Elizabeth Warren’s candidacy for the stock meltup…

 Source: Bloomberg

BTFImpeachment

 Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

The manufacturing Philly Fed index tumbles in December and it is now back to 2019 lows.  The economy is just not growing at all in this important mfg area

(zerohedge)

Philly Fed Tumbles In December Back Near 2019 Lows

The “trough is in” narrative takes another hit this morning as the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey notably disappointed in December, tumbling from 10.4 to 0.3 (well below expectations of +8.0).

This is near the lowest levels for 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, the picture is more mixed…

  • Dec. prices paid rose to 19.0 vs 7.8
  • New orders rose to 9.4 vs 8.4
  • Employment fell to 17.8 vs 21.5
  • Shipments rose to 15.9 vs 9.8
  • Delivery time rose to 10.6 vs 8.5
  • Inventories rose to 6.1 vs -4.6
  • Prices received fell to 11.9 vs 12.2
  • Unfilled orders rose to 10.4 vs 6.0
  • Average workweek rose to 7.7 vs 5.2

And while the six-month outlook fell to 35.2 (from 35.8), the only silver lining is that the six-month outlook for capex rose to 27.6 (from 19.4).

end

Existing home sales unexpectedly tumble in November

(zerohedge)

Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Tumble In November

With homebuilder sentiment at 20 year highs, but mortgage applications stumbling, today’s first glimpse at November US home sales data will be the tie-breaker on how the housing market is doing.

And the news is not good – existing home sales fell 1.7% MoM (worse than the 0.4% decline expected) and are up just 2.7% YoY (despite a huge decline in mortgage rates YoY).

Source: Bloomberg

In October, existing homes were the only cohort that saw sales increase (New- and Pending-sales dipped), but that is gone now and November saw sales fade…

Source: Bloomberg

The median sales price rose 5.4% from a year earlier to $271,300 – the highest November price on record – and the number of homes available in November fell 7.3% from a year earlier to 1.64 million, a record low for the month, NAR’s data showed.

“America is facing a housing shortage and affordability challenges,” though demand remains solid, Jessica Lautz, the NAR’s vice president of demographics, said at a briefing in Washington.

“More inventory is needed at the lower end and price reductions may be needed at the higher end.”

Sales last month declined in the South, the nation’s largest region, to an annualized 2.24 million pace, the slowest since the start of the year; purchases also declined in the West.

The question is – with The Fed now “on hold”, and the world convinced growth/inflation has troughed in the cycle, what happens to home sales if rates start to rise?

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Powell

 

end.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Goldman Sachs are now happy campers today.  They are being forced to admit guilt criminally and pay a two billion dollar fine..But most important and this is not what they want; they must hire an independent monitor to watch over these crooks.  This guilty pleas is from the 1 MDB case and Goldman still has to be deal with Malaysia

(zerohedge)

Goldman To Admit Guilt, Pay $2BN Fine And Hire Independent Monitor In Historic 1MDB Settlement

Two weeks ago, Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs and the DoJ were finally nearing a deal in the federal probe of the Vampire Squid’s role in the 1MDB scandal, one of the biggest government fraud cases in modern Asian history. During the opening years of this decade, Goldman organized a series of bond issues for 1MDB – short for 1Malaysia Development Bhd – a sovereign wealth fund that was supposed to finance major public works projects for the people of Malaysia.

But instead of being used for the public good, the fund was looted by financier Jho Low, who was put in charge of the project by then-Prime Minister Najib Razak. Low, allegedly with the help of two Goldman bankers, who were later accused of accepting bribes to facilitate the fraud, siphoned billions of dollars out of the fund and distributed to Razak and members of his inner circle. The fund went bust and bondholders were eventually left holding the bag. Razak has been charged with crimes relating to the fraud.

Anyway, as of earlier this month, it appeared that the DoJ was preparing to let Goldman off easy with a (just under) $2 billion fine. Such a fine would be the biggest settlement with a US bank since the mortgage settlements after the crisis. Goldman’s shares jumped in response to the headline, as the market interpreted it as positive news: The fine was smaller than analysts had expected, and there was no mention of a guilty plea anywhere in the report.

Unfortunately, that has now changed.

According to WSJ, Goldman is in talks to agree to a $2 billion fine, admit guilt and agree to pay for an independent monitor of its compliance practices.

That’s bad news for Goldman, though the guilty plea would only impact one of the bank’s Asian subsidiaries, rather than the parent company.

Goldman Sachs Group  is in talks with the U.S. government to pay a multibillion-dollar fine, admit guilt and agree to ongoing oversight of its compliance procedures in order to resolve a criminal investigation into its role in a Malaysian corruption scandal.

Goldman and the Justice Department have largely agreed on a fine of just under $2 billion to settle allegations that the Wall Street firm ignored red flags while billions of dollars were looted from its client, a Malaysian government fund known as 1MDB, people familiar with the matter said.

The bank and U.S. officials have discussed a deal in which a Goldman subsidiary in Asia – not the parent company – would plead guilty to violating U.S. bribery laws, some of the people said. The discussions also involve Goldman installing an independent monitor to oversee and recommend changes to its compliance procedures, the people said.

Talks are ongoing and the outlines of a deal, which could be reached early next year, may change.

The presence of a monitor means this settlement has something in common with HSBC’s infamous 2012 settlement over charges it laundered money for Mexican drug cartels. The bank had to hire an independent monitor, who recently flagged some other suspicious transactions that got HSBC mixed up in the US government’s battle with Huawei.

Typically, banks hire a law firm or a consulting firm to perform monitor duties. We’ll see what Goldman chooses to do, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see the bank paying for a few dozen McKinsey analysts.

And one more thing: The settlement wouldn’t resolve the bank’s legal problems in Malaysia, where the government has said it’s seeking billions in compensation from the bank, although a number of high-profile seizures have been made recently in connection with 1MDB, including a recent $700 million settlement with Low, who remains a fugitive believed to be hiding somewhere in China.

All together, it’s not great news for Goldman shareholders. But it could have been worse. What should really be interesting is will the bank choose to exercise provisions allowing it to claw back compensation from former CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who was reportedly personally involved in the bank’s decision to ignore compliance’s red flags about the deal? We doubt it. But perhaps the DoJ will insist…

end
For the first time the Repo pool is undersubscribed. This can only mean one of two things:
1. the banks have no more room to uptake this money as they are up to their gills in treasuries and their balance sheet outlaws more uptake
2  the huge liquidity provided by the Fed is sufficient for their needs
it is either one or the other
(zerohedge)

Repo Crisis Fades Away: For The First Time, A “Turn” Repo Is Not Oversubscribed

It looks like the year-end repocalypse that was predicted by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar is taking a raincheck.

Today’s Term Repo saw $26.25BN in security submissions ($15.75BN in TSYs, $10.5BN in MBS), below the $35BN in total availability. This was the first “turn” repo that was not fully subscribed (on Monday, there was $54.25BN in demand for $50BN in repos maturing on Jan 17).

As such, for the second day in a row, the Fed’s term repo operation was undersubscribed, but what was notable about today’s “temporary” liquidity injection is that this was the first term repo since the start of the Fed’s emergency repo program that covered the year-end “turn” with a maturity of Jan 2, and was not fully overalotted.

As shown in the chart below, the first four “turn” term repos were all oversubscribed (boxed in red), but today’s was the first “turn” repo that saw a less than full allotment.

As such, it now appears that banks finally have their fill of what they believe will be sufficient year-end liquidity, and all subsequent “turn” repos will likely see a lower allotment as the Fed’s $500BN liquidity backstop bazooka ends up being underutilized.

In his latest comment on the repo market, Curvature’s Scott Skyrm noted that “once the term RP operations switch to being undersubscribed, it either means most of the Street’s year-end funding need is fulfilled, or banks are close to their balance sheet limits.” His full comment below:

The Fed took out the bazooka last Thursday and proposed to flood the Repo market with liquidity. If needed. That’s the catch. The Primary Dealers might not take all of the cash the Fed is offering. Either they won’t need it or they do not want it. So there are two scenarios as we get close to the end of the month. Either Primary Dealer banks do not take all of the Fed cash because their balance sheets are full or because they don’t need the cash. Wrightson estimates that only $300 billion to $350 billion* of the ~$500 billion will be taken by the Primary Dealers. We can see whether the Fed RP ops are oversubscribed or undersubscribed by watching the results. Back on November 25, the $25 billion term RP operation to January 6 was oversubscribed by $24 billion. The $50 billion operation to January 17 on Monday was only oversubscribed by $4.25 billion. Once the term RP operations switch to being undersubscribed, it either means most of the Street’s year-end funding need is fulfilled, or banks are close to their balance sheet limits.

This means that today’s repo is either good news, or bad news: good news if banks don’t need any additional liquidity for year end, but bad news if they are simply prevented from seeking more Fed reserves due to balance sheet limitations (and how many securities they can pledge), even as the overall funding in the repo market remains insufficient.

As usual, keep a track on the overnight repo rate for confirmation if things are getting better or worse. Incidentally, today the rate dropped 6bps to 1.525%…

 

… which suggests that all else equal, the tempest in the repo market – and the Fed’s expansion of QE4 as Pozsar predicted – may not happen after all.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Whistleblower and tech genius Bill Binney now has proof that the hack on the DNC was done by non other than the CIA under orders form Obama

(Eric Zeusse/Duran)

Former NSA Tech Chief Says Mueller Report Was Based On CIA-Fabricated “Evidence”

Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Duran,

On December 12th, the retired NSA whistleblower and former Technical Director of the NSA, Bill Binney asserted, at 39:00-44:00 in this audio interview of him:

BILL BINNEY: I basically have always been saying that all of this Russian hack never happened, but we have some more evidence coming out recently.

 

We haven’t published it yet, but what we have seen is that there are at least five items that we’ve found that were produced by Guccifer 2.0 back on June 15th, where they had the Russian fingerprints in them, suggesting the Russians made the hack. Well, we found the same five items published by Wikileaks in the Podesta emails. Those items do not have the Russian fingerprints, which directly implies that Guccifer 2.0 was inserting these into the files to make it look like the Russians did this hack.

Taking that into account with all the other evidence we have; like the download speeds from Guccifer 2.0 were too fast, and they couldn’t be managed by the web; and that the files he was putting together and saying that he actually hacked, the two files he said he had were really one file, and he was playing with the data; moving it to two different files to claim two hacks. Taking that into account with the fabrication of the Russian fingerprints, it leads us back to inferring that in fact the marble framework out of the Vault 7 compromise of CIA hacking routines was a possible user in this case.

In other words, it looked like the CIA did this, and that it was a matter of the CIA making it look like the Russians were doing the hack. So, when you look at that and also look at the DNC emails that were published by Wikileaks that have this FAT-file format in them, all 35,813 of these emails have rounded off times to the nearest even second. That’s a FAT-file format property; that argues that those files were, in fact, downloaded to a thumb drive or CD-rom and physically transported before Wikileaks posted them.

Which again argues that it wasn’t a hack.

So, all of the evidence we’re finding is clearly evidence that the Russians were not in fact hacking; it was probably our own people.

It’s very hard for us to get this kind of information out. The mainstream media won’t cover it; none of them will. It’s very hard. We get some bloggers to do that and some radio shows.

Also, I put all of this into a sworn affidavit in the Roger Stone case.

I did that because all of the attack on him was predicated on him being connected with this Russian hack which was false to being with. All the evidence we’re accumulating clearly says and implies, the US government — namely the FBI, CIA, the DOJ, and of course State Department — all these people involved in this hack, bought a dossier and all of the information going forward to the FISA court.

All of them knew that this was a fake from the very beginning, because this Guccifer 2.0 character was fabricating it. They were using him plus the Internet Research Agency [IRA] as “supposed trolls of the Russian government”. Well, when they sent their lawyers over to challenge that in a court of law, the government failed to prove they had any connection with the Russian government. They basically were chastised by the judge for fabricating a charge against this company. So, if you take the IRA and the trolls away from that argument, and Guccifer 2.0, then the entire Mueller report is a provable fabrication; because it’s based on Guccifer 2.0 and the IRA. Then the entire Rosenstein indictment is also a fabrication and a fake and a fraud for the same reasons. The judges seem to be involved in trying to keep this information out of the public domain.

 

So, we have a really extensive shadow government here at work, trying to keep the understanding and knowledge of what’s really happening away from the public of the United States. That’s the really bad part. And the mainstream media is a participant in this; they’re culpable.

*  *  *

The CIA-edited and written Wikipedia, in its article about Binney, accuses him by saying — while providing no footnote or linked-to source for their allegation against him — “His dissent from the consensus view that Russia interfered with the 2016 US election appears to be based on Russian disinformation.” Ever since Binney went public criticizing U.S. intelligence agencies, they have been trying to discredit him. Thus far, however, their efforts have been nothing more than insinuations against his person, without any specific allegation of counter-evidence that discredits any of his actual assertions.

*  *  *

Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity

END

Pelos plans to delay sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate so that they cold get more information. This will backfire on the Dems

(Watson/Summit News)

Why Pelosi Plans To Delay Sending Impeachment Articles To The Senate

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Nancy Pelosi has suggested she will delay sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate in order for Democrats to build up more evidence against Trump and delay a swift acquittal.

Last night, the House voted along party lines to impeach Trump, a partisan move that enables Democrats to continually undermine and discredit Trump as the “impeached President.”

However, with the effort virtually guaranteed to fall flat in the Senate, Democrats are planning to delay and drag the process in yet another underhanded stunt.

Following the impeachment vote, Pelosi said she would withhold the articles of impeachment until the Senate makes rules that she determines will be “fair” to the prosecution.

“We have legislation approved by the Rules Committee that will enable us to decide how we will send over the articles of impeachment,” Pelosi told reporters Wednesday.

We cannot name [impeachment] managers until we see what the process is on the Senate side.”

She added that “so far, we haven’t seen anything that looks fair to us” in the Senate.

ABC News Politics

@ABCPolitics

Nancy Pelosi: “We have legislation approved…that will enable to decide how we send over the articles of impeachment.”

“We cannot name managers until we see what the process is on the Senate side…so far we haven’t seen anything that looks fair to us.” https://abcn.ws/35ysXJW

Embedded video

The Conservative Treehouse blog describes this as a “cunning Lawfare ploy” that was a “pre-planned procedural process by design.”

“Now the delay in sending the articles of impeachment allows the House lawyers to gather additional evidence while the impeachment case sits in limbo.”

“The House essentially blocks any/all impeachment activity in the Senate by denying the transfer of the articles from the House to the Senate. Additionally, the House will now impede any other Senate legislative action because the House will hold the Senate captive. Meanwhile the Democrat presidential candidates can run against an impeached President.

This additional evidence could include Mueller grand jury material, a deposition by former White House counsel Don McGahn and less Trump’s financial and tax records.

Knowing that the Senate will never vote to impeach Trump, Democrats plan to use the House impeachment vote as yet another tool with which to undo the results of the 2016 election, keeping Trump under a permanent cloud of suspicion right through 2020.

However, as Byron York noted rather pointedly, this is entirely disingenuous consdering the Democrats pre-impeachment utterances:

How do Democrats impeach and withhold when they’ve been telling everybody Trump must be removed right now because he poses an immediate threat to our elections?

Would Dems go straight from pre-emptive impeachment to deferred impeachment?”

And remember, the public is now against impeachment broadly…

*  *  *

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END

Barr stats that Comey is lying over his attempt to distance himself from the FBI mess:

(zerohedge)

Barr Says Comey Lying Over Attempt To Distance Himself From FBI Quagmire

James Comey’s claim that the FBI’s Trump-Russia investigation was run “seven layers” below him is a total lie according to Attorney General William Barr, who said that the FBI’s probe was actually handled by a “very small group of very high level officials.”

To review, Comey told “Fox News Sunday” that as the director of the FBI, he was “seven layers” above the investigation, and that he left things to the career professionals when ’17 serious errors’ occurred which were later uncovered by the Inspector General.

Au contraire Comey

“The idea that this was seven layers below him is simply not true,” Barr told Fox‘s Martha MacCallum in a Wednesday interview, adding “I think that one of the problems with what happened was precisely that they pulled the investigation up to the executive floors, and it was run and birddogged by a very small group of very high level officials.”

Watch:

Red Nation Rising@RedNationRising

AG Barr on Comey ‘seven layers’ above the investigation:

One of the problems that happened is the investigation was pulled up to the executive floors & was run by a very small group of very high level officials.

Embedded video

According to the Inspector General’s report, the FBI withheld exculpatory information on former Trump campaign aide Carter Page when submitting an application to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to spy on him.

And according to the Daily Caller, the report also noted that Comey was directly involved in plans to open operation Crossfire Hurricane after reviewing the initial FISA application on Page.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

@CBSNews: GOP Rep. Louie Gohmert: “This country’s end is now in sight. I hope I don’t live to see it.” https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1207401411056721921

 

AG Barr warns against ‘political’ impeachment, hits back at Comey in Fox News interview

“One of the things that I object to is the tack being taken by Comey, which is to suggest that people who are criticizing or trying to get to the bottom of the misconduct are somehow attacking the FBI. I think that is nonsense,” Barr said. “We’re criticizing and concerned about misconduct by a few actors at the top of the FBI, and they should be criticized if they engaged in serious misconduct.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ag-barr-warns-against-political-impeachment-hits-back-at-comey-fox-news-interview

 

Hoyer: ‘We need to talk about’ delaying Senate impeachment trial

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer… said Wednesday that Democrats must discuss a last-ditch gambit to delay sending articles of impeachment to the Senate and prevent the Republican-controlled chamber from summarily discarding the case against President Donald Trump… [You can’t make this up!]

    Blumenauer argued that the House could use the delay to continue to build on its evidence for impeachment, and possibly to score additional legal victories that could unlock troves of new evidence and witness testimony that the Trump administration has withheld from Congress. Some of those court cases could be decided within weeks…[The Supreme Court will have to invoke the ‘speedy trial’ thing.]

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/18/trump-impeachment-trial-steny-hoyer-087319

 

Sen. @ChuckGrassley: Judge Collyer shld b calling for heads as well as fixesFISA courts job is 2 protect civil liberties against unjustified govt spying.  It got duped by FBI w false/incomplete info 2spy on Trump campaign aide Americas faith in FISA process is shaken

 

The media, including CSPAN, did NOT cover Horowitz’s testimony to the Senate’s Homeland Security & Government Services Committee yesterday.  Horowitz changed his tune about no political bias.

 

@TrumpWarRoom: SEN. PAUL: “But could you then specifically say…there actually was evidence of political bias and evidence of record-changing that looks like malfeasance?”

HOROWITZ: “There is evidence of both, I agree with you.”

 

Sen. Hawley to Horowitz, “Was it your conclusion that political bias did NOT affect any part of the Page investigation, any part of Crossfire Hurricane?”  Horowitz: “We did not reach that conclusion.”

https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/1207368832366583809/photo/1

 

@paulsperry_: Horowitz testified that in the 1st half of his 20-mo probe of FISA abuses, few witnesses agreed to be interviewed. But then suddenly something changed in the 2nd half of his probe &many of those witnesses who were originally reluctant decided to be interviewed. Hmm. What changed?

[Barr became Attorney General?]

     FBI Director Chris Wray found out Oct. 25 that one of his counterintelligence attorneys falsified information in a FISA wiretap ordered on Trump campaign aide, yet he didn’t order FISA reforms until after the IG’s report was issued Dec 9 publicizing FBI misconduct. Why the delay?

 

NBC’s @akarl_smith: Sens. Johnson, Grassley and Graham ask five former Obama admin officials for records and interviews regarding Burisma and Hunter Biden

https://twitter.com/akarl_smith/status/1207418650535305218

 

As House votes to impeach Trump, McConnell pushes 13 judge nominations through Senate

McConnell’s thrust is emblematic of what he sees as his crowning achievement. So far, he has led the charge changing the landscape of the federal courts across the country with a record number of appellate court judges — currently at 50 — and Supreme Court nominees Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh…

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/politics/senate-mcconnell-judges/index.html

 

CNN legal ‘expert’ [Asha Rangappa, ex-FBI agent] unaware that Supreme Court justices regularly do TV interviews, including on CNN – “uhhhhh,” tweeted Rangappa, “why is a Supreme Court justice doing a TV interview.”… CNN did several interviews with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 2018…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/cnn-legal-expert-unaware-that-supreme-court-justices-regularly-do-tv-interviews-including-on-cnn

 

Feds charge Philadelphia man in shooting, armed robbery after finding DA’s sentence too light

Patterson was later arrested and entered a plea deal with the D.A. Larry Krasner’s office to three and a half to 10 years in prison…

https://www.fox29.com/news/feds-charge-philadelphia-man-in-shooting-armed-robbery-after-finding-das-sentence-too-light

 

@johncardillo: Philly DA Larry Krasner was installed by Soros

Attachments area

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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