DEC 20/GOLD DOWN $3/15 TO $1477.40 DESPITE SETTING A NEW COMEX OPEN INTEREST RECORD// SILVER UP 7 CENTS TO $17.17//ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER//ANDREW BAILEY EXEC. DIRECTOR OF THE FCA TO REPLACE MARK CARNEY AS GOVERNOR OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND//PELOSI REFUSES TO DELIVER ARTICLE OF IMPEACHMENT TO THE SENATE AS THEY REALIZE THAT THEIR CASE IS WEAK; MANY OPTIONS FOR THE SENATE TO DEAL WITH THIS//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1477.40 DOWN $3.15    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.17 UP 7 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1478.00

 

silver:  $17.18

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:39/46

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,478.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/19/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/23/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 39
737 C ADVANTAGE 7
800 C MAREX SPEC 15 3
905 C ADM 24 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 46 46
MONTH TO DATE: 14,039

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 46 NOTICE(S) FOR 4600 OZ (0.14307 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  14,039 NOTICES FOR 1,403,900 OZ  (43.667 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

83 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 415,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3799 for 18,995,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7163 UP 22 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7205 UP 56

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1354 CONTRACTS FROM 207,602 UP TO 208,956 WITH THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  510 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  510 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 510 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 510 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.55 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.935   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 11 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED  1864 CONTRACTS. OR 9.320 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER. AND THAT IS PROBABLY THE REASON FOR THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

24,928 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,928 CONTRACTS) OR 124.64 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1526 CONTRACTS OR 7.630 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  124.64 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.80% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,214.20   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1354, WITH THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 510 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 1864 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 510 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1354 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.10 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.032 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 147% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 83 NOTICE(S) FOR 415,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.935 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN EXTREMELY STRONG 10,834 CONTRACTS, AND WITH THAT WE SET  A  NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 728,365 (SET DEC 20/2019).

THE RISE IN COMEX OI  OCCURRED WITH A RATHER TAME  $6.15 PRICING GAIN ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 9908 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  9908 CONTRACTS APRIL: 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 728,368,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 20,742 CONTRACTS: 10,834 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9908 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 20,742 CONTRACTS OR 2,074,200 OZ OR 64.52 TONNES.  THURSDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $6.15 IN GOLD TRADING....

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 64.52  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $6.15) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (64.52 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 122,325 CONTRACTS OR 12,232,500 oz OR 380,48 TONNES (17 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7194 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 380.48 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 380.48/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.71% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     6,106.59  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: AN EXTREMELY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 10,834 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($6.15)) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9908 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9908 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 20,742 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9908 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,834 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 64.52 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.15 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

DEC 20/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 883.29 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER 7 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

DEC 18/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1354 CONTRACTS from 207,740 UP TO 208,956 AND CLOSER TO A NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1305

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  510  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 510 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1354  CONTRACTS TO THE 510 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1854 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.32 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.935 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 510 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.17 POINTS OR 0.40%  //Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 70.86 POINTS OR 0.25%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 48.22 POINTS OR 0.20%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .26%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0077 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0077 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0014 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China

Funny: Cash strapped banks are now offering pork to lure new depositors

(zerohedge)

ii)China

China Premier warns of economic turmoil in 2002
(zerohedge)

iii)CHINA/USA

The following commentary explains why it is impossible for the phase one trade deal to be implemented
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

A big story..FCA chairman Andrew Bailey selected to become Governor of the Bank of England.

(London’s Telegraph)

ii)Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal clear first vote as they now get ready for the second vote which will allow the UK to leave the EU

(zerohedge)
iii)UK/USA
Michael Every discusses the two most important topics of the day: Brexit, the new Governor of the Bank of England and the Impeachment affair in the USA
(Michael Every)

iv)EU

Claudio Grass is desperate to stimulate their economies.  The ECB now wants member states to fiscally stimulate their economies to oblivion
(Grass/Mises)

v)GERMANY

German economy looks to contract in the latest Q4
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

SWITZERLAND//THE GLOBE

A good Bellwether on global growth Swiss watches and timepieces have hit a 3 decade low

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)INDIA

Protests were banned in India.  That set off a fire storm!!

(zerohedge)

ii)ARGENTINA

This could also set off revolts among the populace as the government aims to hike export taxes on commodities again after already hiking them 3 days ago.

(zerohedge)

iii)INDONESIA

As we outlined to you yesterday the Pig ebola virus is running rampant in Indonesia
(Michael Snyder)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Pam and Russ comment on the continual crimes committed by the New York Fed

(courtesy Pam and Russ martens/Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

ii)Iran delegates rant helplessly at the dollar’s strength and how it is destroying their economy. Of course  they do not mention the continual support of terrorism in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

(courtesy AP)

iii) This is very important:  the guy who is looking into the corruption of the banks re the exchange for physicals is now becoming the Governor of the Bank of England

(London Telegraph)

from GATA//see full story in European affairs

 

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)Final Q3 GDP comes in unchanged with all of the growth coming from consumer spending

(zerohedge)

ii)Trump will like this: USA personal incomes and spending are growing at the fastest pace in 2019

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The demise of bricks and mortar operations in the USA: 9300 stores closed in 2019

(Phillips/Epoch Times)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)Pelosi refuses to answer any questions on impeachment

(zerohedge)

ii)A very important read by Sharryl Attkisson as she outlines how one warrant surveilling one American can then be used to spy on thousands more

(Sharryl Atktisson)

iii)Durham is seeking Brennan’s emails and call logs over the Russian probe. He wants his private emails which no doubt will contradict his public testimony to Congress et al

(zerohedge)

iv)If the House does not send the articles of impeachment to the Senate then Trump was not impeached at all.  This is according to Noah Feldman and Jonathan Turley

(zerohedge)

v)This is a good article by Luongo as he states that the hi-jacking of Congress of this phony impeachment will create open warfare on our other branches ..and there will be casualties and possibly civil war…

(courtesy Luongo)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN EXTREMELY STRONG SIZED 10,834 CONTRACTS TO A NEW RECORD OF 728,365 (SET DEC 20/2019) WITH THE GAIN OF $6.15 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9908 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 00 ; FEB: 9908  AND APRIL: 00  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 9908 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 20,742 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9908 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 10,834 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $6.15). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED  A WHOPPING 20,742 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  20,742 CONTRACTS OR 2,074,200 OZ OR 64.52 TONNES.  

 

 

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 481 open interest stand for a GAIN of35 contracts.  We had 190 notices filed upon yesterday so we GAINED ANOTHER HUMONGOUS 225 contracts or an additional 22,500 OZ will stand for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on the this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and well as negating a fiat bonus…queue jumping resumes with a vengeance.

 

we had: 46 notice(s) filed upon for 4600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI INCREASE by 941 contracts UP to 4415 which is UNBELIEVABLY  high for a January delivery month. Normally we see some rolling action as longs sell their January contracts and move to Feb.  This is not happening..longs are refusing to roll and are standing pat!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A GAIN  OF 6821 in contracts UP to 515,072.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1354 CONTRACTS FROM 207,602 UP TO 208,956(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/THURSDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a GAIN of 147 contracts UP to 471. We had 171 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we GAINED A HUMONGOUS 318  contracts or an additional 1,590,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

After December, we have a LOSS in the next front month of January of 84 contracts to stand at 682.  The Feb non active month saw a GAIN of 6 contracts UP to 207.  March is a very active month and here we witness a GAIN of 943 contracts UP to 163,479

 

We, today, had 83 notice(s) filed for 415,000, OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 134,354  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  213,190  contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 20/2019

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
46 notice(s)
 4600 OZ
(0.14307 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
435 contracts
(43500 oz)
1.353 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
14,039 notices
1,403,900 OZ
43.667 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; NIL oz

ADJUSTMENTS:

 

I biggy:

i) Out of HSBC:  9,526.893 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC and will be deemed a settlement

 

total weight: 0.2963 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 46 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 39 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14,039) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (481 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (46 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,447,400 OZ OR 45.020 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (14,039 x 100 oz)  + (481)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (46 x 100 oz )which equals 1,447,400 oz standing OR 45.020 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

 

We GAINED 225 contracts or an additional 22,500 oz will stand at the comex as they REFUSED TO  morph into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 31.988 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.02 TONNES

 

total: 120.99 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 17.9576 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 120.99  tonnes

 

Thus:

120.99 tonnes of delivery –

18.2539 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 102.74 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 31.988 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,265,992.627 oz or  39.377 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,028,439.0 oz (31.988 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,028,439.0  (31.988 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,676,433.163 oz 269.87 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 20 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 792,638.142 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
997.900 oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
83
CONTRACT(S)
(415,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
388 contracts
 1,940,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3799 contracts

18,995,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into  Delaware: 997.900 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.77% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/317.66 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  997.900  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of CNT: 249,097.942 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 93,613.960 oz

iii) Out of Scotia: 449,926.240 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 792,638/142  oz

We had 1 adjustment:

Out of Delaware:

 

adjustments from the customer account into the dealer accounts:

i) Delaware:  144,438.639 oz

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  88.173 million

total dealer + customer silver:  317.450 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 83 contract(s) FOR 415,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3799 x 5,000 oz = 18,995,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (471) and the number of notices served upon today 83 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 3799 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (471)- number of notices served upon today (83) x 5000 oz equals 20,935,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We gained 318 contracts or an additional 1,590,000 oz will stand at the comex as they, refused to morphed into London based forwards. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 83 notice(s) filed for 415,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  60,535 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 50,022 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 50,022 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 250 million  OZ 35.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.73% ((DEC 20/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.14% to NAV (DEC 19/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.73%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.71 TRADING 14.15///DISCOUNT  3,81

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 20/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 883.29 tonnes

*IN LAST 730 TRADING DAYS: 53.96 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 630 TRADING DAYS: A NET 113.09 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

 

 

DEC 20:  SLV INVENTORY

364.858 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.96/ and libor 6 month duration 1.90

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .06

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.97%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.97

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.00

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Pam and Russ comment on the continual crimes committed by the New York Fed

(courtesy Pamd and Russ martens/Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: NY Fed’s fake borrowing rates raise ghosts of Libor’s

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, December 19, 2019

When it comes to Wall Street’s mindset, the thinking is that it’s legal if you can get away with it. That mindset seems to have captured the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which secretly pumped trillions of dollars into insolvent banks in violation of its statutory mandate during the financial crisis; is alleged to have fired a bank examiner for refusing to alter her negative examination of Goldman Sachs; and failed to investigate a litany of crimes to which it was made aware.

… 

One of the crimes that the New York Fed failed to bring to the attention of U.S. law enforcement was mega banks cheating on the borrowing rates that they were reporting as their London InterBank Offered Rate or Libor, a benchmark interest rate used globally to settle derivative trades and used as a reference rate to set mortgage rates, credit card rates, student loans and other consumer loans. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/12/new-york-feds-fake-borrowing-rate…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

New York Fed’s Fake Borrowing Rates Raise Ghosts of Libor’s Fake Rates

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 19, 2019 ~

When it comes to Wall Street’s mindset, the thinking is that it’s legal if you can get away with it. That mindset seems to have captured the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which secretly pumped trillions of dollars into insolvent banks in violation of its statutory mandate during the financial crisis; is alleged to have fired a bank examiner for refusing to alter her negative examination of Goldman Sachs; and failed to investigate a litany of crimes to which it was made aware. (See U.S. Senate Tries Public Shaming of New York Fed President Dudley.)

Occupy Wall Street Protesters Outside the New York Fed, September 17, 2012

Occupy Wall Street Protesters Outside the New York Fed, September 17, 2012

One of the crimes that the New York Fed failed to bring to the attention of U.S. law enforcement was mega banks cheating on the borrowing rates that they were reporting as their London InterBank Offered Rate or Libor, a benchmark interest rate used globally to settle derivative trades and used as a reference rate to set mortgage rates, credit card rates, student loans and other consumer loans.

The largest banks on Wall Street have collectively paid billions of dollars to settle charges around the globe that they rigged Libor rates to benefit their own trading positions or, in some cases, to make themselves look healthier than they actually were by submitting a Libor rate that was below their true cost of borrowing from other banks.

For example, on June 27, 2012 the U.S. Department of Justice fined the U.K. trading house and bank, Barclays, $160 million for submitting false Libor borrowing costs.

According to the Justice Department, “between approximately August 2007 and January 2009, in response to initial and ongoing press speculation that Barclays’s high U.S. Dollar LIBOR submissions at the time might reflect liquidity problems at Barclays, members of Barclays management directed that Barclays’s Dollar LIBOR submissions be lowered. This management instruction often resulted in Barclays’s submission of false rates that did not reflect its perceived cost of obtaining interbank funds.”

On December 12, 2012, the U.S. Department of Justice criminally charged Tom Hayes, a former UBS and Citigroup trader, in the Libor matter on charges that included “the publication of manipulated interest rate information in New York, New York.” Hayes is currently serving an 11-year prison sentence.

Against that backdrop, consider what happened on September 17 of this year and every business day since then.

On September 17, the interest rate on overnight loans in the repurchase agreement market (repo loans) spiked from the typical 2 percent to 10 percent. The U.S. repo market is where banks, hedge funds and mutual funds make overnight loans to one another against good collateral such as U.S. Treasury securities. The large spike in rates suggested to many on Wall Street that the mega banks on Wall Street were backing away from lending to one or more financial institutions or hedge funds out of fear over their creditworthiness. (See “Intra-day Bankruptcy”: A 2008 Email from the Fed Provides Insight into Today’s Overnight Repo Scare.)

But instead of allowing the free market to engage in further price discovery in the overnight loan market and allow a free market to determine the true cost of borrowing for specific banks, the New York Fed instead jumped into the market on September 17 and proceeded to flood the market with hundreds of billions of dollars each week in supercheap loans, thus artificially manipulating and obfuscating the true borrowing cost in this market.

The New York Fed has intervened in this market every single business day since September 17. Last Thursday, the New York Fed announced that it has no plans to allow this market to function on its own. (See New York Fed Plans to Throw $2.93 Trillion at Wall Street’s Trading Houses Over Next Month as New York Times Remains Silent.)

This morning, the New York Fed loaned Wall Street trading houses, which it will not name, $26.26 billion in an overnight loan at 1.55 percent – 8.45 percent away from where this market wanted to trade on September 17. Also this morning, the New York Fed made a 14-day loan of $31.269 billion into this market at an interest rate of 1.57 percent.

Despite the New York Fed artificially manipulating interest rates in a key market in New York, Congress has yet to hold a public hearing dedicated solely to the matter. On December 5, however, the House Financial Services Committee held a hearing with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin as the sole witness. Mnuchin also serves as the head of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC) which is supposed to be closely monitoring any red flags that would impact financial stability in the U.S.

Mnuchin was repeatedly questioned by members of the Committee on what is happening in the repo market. Congressman French Hill (R-Arkansas) cut to the chase: “I think the concern is that the New York Fed is not supporting the repo market. They are the repo market. I think that’s the challenge. And we don’t see the bank reserves that are more than adequate – billions more than needed, on JPMorgan, for example, $120 billion in daily cash held at the Fed on a $60 billion cash requirement, and yet they’re not entering that repo market.”

end

This is very important:  the guy who is looking into the corruption of the banks re the exchange for physicals is now becoming the Governor of the Bank of England

(London Telegraph)

from GATA//see full story in European affairs

Financial Conduct Authority chief to be next Bank of England governor

 Section: 

By Russell Lynch and Lizzy Burden
The Telegraph, London
Thursday, December 19, 2019

Andrew Bailey, head of the City watchdog, is set to become the first Bank of England governor of the Brexit era, stepping into one of the most testing periods for the UK’s central bank.

The Financial Conduct Authority chief executive was tonight braced to succeed Mark Carney when the Canadian steps down on Jan. 31, the day the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union. The appointment will be announced by Sajid Javid, the chancellor, Friday.

Mr. Bailey, 60, a former deputy governor, has spent most of his career at the Bank of England but has led the FCA since 2016. His appointment was welcomed but is in danger of being overshadowed by a trading scandal that throws a fresh spotlight on the bank’s credibility.

A furore over hedge funds that paid for privileged access to an audio feed of the bank’s press conferences, without the bank’s knowledge through a contractor, has raised immediate concerns over its policing of financial markets. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/19/andrew-bailey-emerges-fa…

end

Iran delegates rant helplessly at the dollar’s strength and how it is destroying their economy. Of course  they do not mention the continual support of terrorism in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

(courtesy AP)

Islamic delegates rant haplessly again about dollar imperialism

 Section: 

Wake us up, Your Eminences, when you start using gold for a trade currency. Unlike the dollar, gold doesn’t care who spends it or what it’s spent on.

* * *

Iran Urges Muslim World to Fight Dollar ‘Domination’

By Sam Reeves
Agence France-Presse
via Bourse & Bazaar, London
Thursday, December 19, 2019

The president of sanctions-hit Iran called today for Muslim countries to cooperate in fighting U.S. “economic terrorism” at the opening of a summit aimed at tackling the Islamic world’s woes.

Hundreds of delegates are attending the gathering in Malaysia — including heads of state and religious leaders — but the meeting has been snubbed by Saudi Arabia, home to Islam’s holiest shrines.

… 

The summit has also been criticized for undermining the Organisation of Islamic Conference, the Saudi-based global body representing Muslim nations and organizations.

Issues including the plight of Myanmar’s Rohingya and China’s mostly Muslim Uighur minority could be discussed, although, with massive Chinese infrastructure in many Islamic nations, criticism may be muted.

In opening remarks, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani slammed Washington’s global clout.

“The American economic regime and dollarization of national and global economies have provided the United States with the possibility of advancing its hegemony under the threat of sanctions and economic terrorism,” he said.

The Muslim world needs to be saved “from the domination of the United States dollar, and the American financial regime,” he added, calling for greater financial cooperation between Islamic countries. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/news-1/2019/12/19/iran-urges-muslim-worl…

iii) Other physical stories:

J Johnson on silver deliveries at the Comex

(courtesy J. Johnson)

Nothing Says There’s A Problem in Au/Ag Like Comex Open Interest!

Posted December 20th, 2019 at 9:22 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

    Great and Wonderful Friday before Christmas Folks,

      Gold is trading just below the close at $1,482.90, down $1.50 inside the tightest trading range I’ve seen in a while ($3) with the high at $1,483.60 and the low at $1,480.60. Silver is equally not as “moovy” with its trade at $17.145, down 9/10ths of a penny with the high right there at $17.17 and the low right there at $17.08. The US Dollar is by far more volatile with its value pegged at 97.090 up 13.5 points after reaching 97.160 with the low to beat at 96.975. All of this happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after very few people even watched the democratic party’s “I hate Trump no matter what” debates.

      Venezuela’s currency now has Gold valued at 14,810.46 Bolivar adding 44.94 more Bolivar than what was taken yesterday with Silver at 171.236 it too gaining 1.45 Bolivar. In Argentina, Gold now has a value of 88,582.52 Peso’s adding 211.20 more, for the holder, with Silver now getting 1,024.24 Peso’s per ounce showing a gain of 8.10 in one day’s trade. The Turkish Lira’s price for Gold now equals 8,788.35 Lira et tu showing a gain of 6.05 Lira with Silver now priced at 101.629 proving a gain of 0.644 in T-Lira Value.

      Red Silver’s Delivery Demands jumped to 471 during yesterday’s trade adding 147 more requests for physical which happened inside a very strange day of trading. Yesterday, the delivery month’s pricing started off at $16.985, with the last “real” trade at $16.975 with a closing price adjusted up to $17.058. Inside yesterday’s trade, the delivery month posted a Volume of 987 and with no prices being posted as I watched the Volume go higher and higher and higher. If I was to use the excuses the Comex has given me in the past, this may have been a spread trade exiting the spread into a delivery.

      This spread trade, would have already been in place, like a “LONG” December contract and SHORT a March contract (example). This spread would have to exit before the last delivery day and if the spreader wanted delivery of physical, he would simply exit the “short” side of the spread and keep the longs. This (Resolute?) trader would also have to have 100% of the margins required per contract in order to stay in the trade. I’m not saying this happened; however, I am using the excuses that Comex representatives, at the delivery desk, gave us in the past. Remember, we are the uncleaned going against a criminal element notarized by the governing bodies. Also, of note, this morning’s activity has seen Zero movement in the delivery month …. What I do not know as of yet is if the entire 987 Volume was a physical “Buy”? Tick Tock!

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest is where the real control of pricing is with today’s added proof that 1,386 more short contracts had to be added into the market in order to keep Silver from adding far more value to the paper already in play with the total now at 209,101 Overnighters. To add to this is Gold’s Overall Open Interest which is now at a New World Record High of 730,040 Overnighters proving 12,506 more short contracts had to be added in order to tell you, Silver and Gold holders, how wrong you are about their price fixes! Nothing Says There’s A Problem in Au/Ag Like Comex Open Interest!

      Normally I would be adding more news info but I’m fighting internet connectivity issues as I try to calculate prices and activities before it goes down again. Have a great weekend, keep the attitudes positive and that smile on your face, as we move into Winter and the longest night of the year. Stay Resolute and …

Stay Strong!

JJohnson

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0077/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0014   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 12.17 POINTS OR 0.40%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 70.86 POINTS OR 0.25%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 48.52 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MGREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.49/Euro FALLS TO 1.1110

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.31/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.94 and Brent: 66.36

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.23%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.43% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.46%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.66: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.42

3k Gold at $1479.10 silver at: 17.09   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 30/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.09

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.31 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9803 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0882 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.23%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.94% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.36%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9195..

Merry Quad Witchmas: Global Meltup Sends Stocks To All Time High

Christmas has come early on Wall Street and across global market, as world stocks melted up to new record highs on Friday, amid subdued trading as desks wound down before the year-end holidays, while the British pound was heading for its biggest weekly loss in more than two years amid renewed worries over how Britain will leave the European Union (and just as every sellside analyst turned bullish on cable).

As a reminder, today’s Quadruple Witching may prompt significant volatility around expiry times, especially with market liquidity near all time lows. The schedule for today’s options expirations is below:

  • 5:15EST: FTSE 100 Dec’19 Futures and Options Expiry
  • 6:00EST: Euro Stoxx 50 Dec’19 Futures and Options Expiry
  • 7:00EST: DAX 30 Dec’19 Futures and Options Expiry
  • 9:30EST: E-mini S&P Dec’19 Futures and Options Expiry
  • 9:30EST: NASDAQ (Inc. E-mini) Dec’19 Futures and Options Expiry
  • 9:30EST: DJIA Dec’19 Futures and Options Expiry
  • 10:00EST: CAC 40 Dec’19 Futures and Options Expiry

The MSCI world equity index gained to 561.31, beating the record set on Thursday and while there was no catalyst, traders ascribed the usual trade deal “optimism” for the ramp even though it increasingly appears that both sides have agreed to their own version of a deal.

The MSCI index is on track to advance more than 1% this week, in what would be its fourth straight week of gains.  On Wall Street, Emini futures were flat near all-time highs, having risen more than 1% in the week.

 

The violent year-end melt up has pushed the S&P 500 to a sixth straight record, its longest such streak since January 2018. All three major U.S. indexes – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow – notched record closing highs.

Still, some data reminded investors of the fragile state of the world economy. The mood among German consumers deteriorated unexpectedly heading into January, a survey showed, suggesting that household spending in Europe’s largest economy could weaken at the beginning of next year.

Traders did not care, however, and European shares led the way higher, with the Euro Stoxx 600 gaining ground through the morning to add 0.6%. Indexes in Frankfurt, Paris and London all made similar gains in thin trading. Sectors are mostly in the green, but the energy sector sees underperformance on the back of an update from Shell (-1.2%) after the oil-giant warned it expects FY19 cash capital expenditures at the lower end of its previously guided range and sees. In terms of other individual movers, Adidas (+0.4%) shares were initially pressured in light of overall weak earnings from US peer Nike (-1.6% pre-market) and after Nike’s CFO expressed caution regarding trade tariffs hitting the group’s gross profit margins. Elsewhere, NMC Health (-19.1%) tumbled more with traders citing an FT report which notes the company held talks to raise GBP 200mln in off-balance sheet debt to fund new hospitals despite “having faced increased scrutiny from short-sellers over the scale of its borrowing”, which comes amid the Muddy Waters report earlier in the week.

Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added a sliver, having risen 1.2% so far this week and almost 5% this month. The ASX 200 was subdued by weakness in energy and financials, with the consumer sectors the worst performers as markets continued to digest the dampened prospects for further easing as reflected by OIS which priced in an under 26% chance of an RBA rate cut in February, while Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) was pressured by recent adverse currency flows. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) were indecisive after the PBoC conducted another respectable liquidity operation to bring this week’s total net injections to CNY 630bln but then kept its 1yr Loan Prime Rate unchanged which defied the consensus for a 5bps cut, while reports also suggested lingering uncertainty on the trade front related to the technological restrictions the US may impose on China.

As Bloomberg notes, investors have been in a holding pattern this week, buffeted by conflicting macro winds. President Donald Trump’s impeachment has morphed into a standoff, yet U.S. lawmakers managed to pass spending bills Thursday to avoid a partial government shutdown.

The signing of a first-phase trade deal was set for January, though terms remain unclear. While the US-China trade deal has been “completed” for now, China has voiced disagreement with what it is supposedly going to be signing off on. Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a new North American deal that leaves $1.2 trillion in annual U.S.-Mexico-Canada tradeflows largely intact. Traders were already beginning to look at what the next steps for the Washington-Beijing saga will be in the new year.

“The focus will be on what the outlook is on a more comprehensive phase two deal – what the language is like, what Trump and the Chinese are saying about it,” said Neil Wilson, chief markets analyst at Markets.com.

In rates, the big mover was the Japanese 10Y bond: 10yr JGBs extended on the slump below the 152.00 level following selling pressure in T-notes and as the benchmark Japanese 10yr yield turned positive for the first time since March, which overshadowed the slightly firmer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated JGBs. The move in positive territory came as Japan is boosting issuance of 40-year bonds to prevent low yields from squeezing institutional investors like pension funds and insurers and driving them into riskier assets.

 

The Treasury yield curve remained near its steepest in more than a year, typically the immediate trigger to a recession following an inversion. India’s longer-dated bonds jumped after the central bank unveiled plans to mount something akin to the U.S. Operation Twist, while European bonds tracked Treasuries lower.

On the currency front, sterling steadied after suffering a sharp reversal that left it facing its worst weekly fall since late 2017 of around 2%. Former Bank of England deputy governor Andrew Bailey will be the central bank’s next governor, Britain’s finance minister saidBailey will serve an eight-year term, with investors expecting continuity on monetary policy. The pound was up 0.2% at $1.3031 having slipped overnight to below $1.30, a dramatic drop from a $1.3514 peak, after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson used his sweeping election victory to revive the risk of a hard Brexit.

“We see the biggest risks being to GBP/USD depreciation over the next two weeks as Brexit preparations take place amidst the most sluggish UK economy in 10 years,” said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at CBA. The British parliament will vote at around 1430 GMT on Johnson’s Brexit deal.

In commodities, oil dipped and gold was range-bound.

Looking at the day ahead, releases include the third reading of Q3 GDP, November data on personal income and personal spending, December’s Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, and the final University of Michigan sentiment indicator for December. From central banks, we’ll get remarks from the BoE’s Haskel, while in the political sphere, UK MPs will be debating legislation to implement the Withdrawal Agreement. BlackBerry, CarMax, and Carnival are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,210.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 415.97
  • MXAP down 0.07% to 170.07
  • MXAPJ up 0.06% to 549.52
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 23,816.63
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,733.07
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 27,871.35
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,004.94
  • Sensex up 0.01% to 41,676.91
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,816.32
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,204.18
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to -0.221%
  • Euro down 0.03% to $1.1119
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.4 bps to 1.213%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.459%
  • Brent futures down 0.2% to $66.42/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,477.81
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.40

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Andrew Bailey will be the next head of the Bank of England after the government chose to replace Mark Carney with the U.K.’s top financial regulator, just as Britain faces the next phase of its departure from the European Union
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve will join the Bank of England in reviewing broadcast feeds for possible weaknesses after it was found that some traders and hedge funds were able to gain early access to audio of BOE briefings, the Financial Times reported.
  • Confidence among U.K. businesses and consumers climbed in December, even before Boris Johnson’s decisive election victory brought some certainty to the Brexit process
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping isn’t planning to attend the World Economic Forum in January, according to people familiar with the matter, taking one option for a face-to-face meeting with his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump off the table
  • The U.S. Treasury yield curve reached its steepest point in over a year Thursday amid an improving growth outlook that’s boosted investors’ inflation expectations in recent weeks
  • A key gauge of Japan’s price gains ticked up again in November in the wake of an earlier sales tax increase that is propping up the headline figure, complicating the picture of the underlying trend
  • Japan’s cabinet approved a record budget for next fiscal year, with social security costs pushing up the bill for a government already struggling with the developed world’s biggest public debt
  • China’s base rate for new corporate loans remained steady in December, reflecting policy makers’ uneven progress in reducing borrowing costs for the real economy
  • The Senate sent President Donald Trump two spending bills Thursday that would provide $1.4 trillion to fund the U.S. government through September and avoid a shutdown on Saturday
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve will join the Bank of England in reviewing broadcast feeds for possible weaknesses after it was found that some traders and hedge funds were able to gain early access to audio of BOE briefings, the Financial Times reported
  • Japan’s cabinet approved a record budget for next fiscal year, with social security costs pushing up the bill for a government already struggling to rein in the developed world’s biggest public debt load
  • Japan is boosting issuance of 40-year bonds to prevent low yields from squeezing institutional investors like pension funds and insurers and driving them into riskier assets

Asian equity markets traded mixed as the Christmas rally on Wall St, where all major indices notched fresh record highs and the S&P 500 breached the 3200 milestone for the first time, only partially transitioned into the region amid a lack of significant macro drivers. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was subdued by weakness in energy and financials, with the consumer sectors the worst performers as markets continued to digest the dampened prospects for further easing as reflected by OIS which priced in an under 26% chance of an RBA rate cut in February, while Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) was pressured by recent adverse currency flows. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) were indecisive after the PBoC conducted another respectable liquidity operation to bring this week’s total net injections to CNY 630bln but then kept its 1yr Loan Prime Rate unchanged which defied the consensus for a 5bps cut, while reports also suggested lingering uncertainty on the trade front related to the technological restrictions the US may impose on China. Finally, 10yr JGBs extended on the slump below the 152.00 level following selling pressure in T-notes and as the benchmark Japanese 10yr yield turned positive for the first time since March, which overshadowed the slightly firmer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Yen Revival on Its Way After Quietest Year in Five Decades
  • Founder Group Bondholders Agree to Extension, Avoiding Default

Choppy but ultimately positive trade for European bourses in holiday-thinned conditions [Eurostoxx 50 +0.7%] following a mixed APAC handover in which the region traded without conviction; albeit, the FTSE MIB somewhat outperforms. As a reminder, today’s Quadruple Witching may prompt some volatility around expiry times (full scheduled posted on the Newsquawk headline feed). Sectors are mostly in the green, but the energy sector sees underperformance on the back of an update from Shell (-1.2%) after the oil-giant warned it expects FY19 cash capital expenditures at the lower end of its previously guided range and sees its Q4 chemical cracker and intermediate margins materially lower than in Q3 this year; citing a weak macro environment. In terms of other individual movers, Adidas (+0.4%) shares were initially pressured in light of overall weak earnings from US peer Nike (-1.6% pre-market) and after Nike’s CFO expressed caution regarding trade tariffs hitting the group’s gross profit margins. Elsewhere, NMC Health (-19.1%) experiences renewed downside with traders citing an FT report which notes the Co. held talks to raise GBP 200mln in off-balance sheet debt to fund new hospitals despite “having faced increased scrutiny from short-sellers over the scale of its borrowing”, which comes amid the Muddy Waters report earlier in the week.

Top European News

  • Andrew Bailey Selected to Be Next Bank of England Governor: FT
  • Russia Says Shooter at Moscow’s Spy Headquarters Was Lone Wolf
  • U.K. Consumers, Firms End 2019 on Upbeat Note as Sentiment Jumps
  • Nestle Sells 60% of Herta Meats Into Spanish Joint Ventur

In FX, sterling is consolidating recovery gains with the aid better than forecast data in the guise of final Q3 GDP that was tweaked higher, albeit modestly. Cable is forming a firmer base on the 1.3000 handle after dipping under the psychological level yesterday, while Eur/Gbp is paring back from 0.8550+ highs to sub-0.8525 awaiting a speech from BoE dove Haskel and then the Brexit WAB vote in parliament that should be a formality, but will include an addendum aimed at preventing any move to extend the transition period. Note also, hefty option expiry interest in Cable today from 1.3000 extending up to 1.3250, but the closest from 1.3000-15 and 1.3040-50 in 1 bn clips.

  • USD – Notwithstanding the Pound’s partial revival and outperformance in several other G10 currency peers, the DXY is holding a firm/fine line between 97.454-381 awaiting another round of US economic releases, including the last Q3 GDP revision, November personal income and spending and final Michigan sentiment for the current month.
  • SEK/NOK – The Scandi Crowns have regained or retained momentum following respective December policy meetings from the Riksbank and Norges Bank, as Eur/Sek revisits Thursday’s post-25 bp repo hike lows below 10.4500 with some impetus from frothier Swedish PPI in the absence of retail sales that have been delayed until next Friday for no official reason. Meanwhile, Eur/Nok is still under the 10.0000 marker in response to a gentle incline in the depo rate path to 1.6% in 2022 from the current 1.5%.
  • AUD/NZD – In contrast to the above, divergence between the Antipodean Dollars has persisted in wake of Australia’s upbeat jobs report that is keeping Aud/Usd afloat near 0.6900 and Aud/Nzd elevated around 1.0450 even though Nzd/Usd is pivoting 0.6600.
  • JPY/EUR/CAD – Narrowly mixed vs the Greenback and not straying far or outside of recent ranges, as the Yen meanders above 109.50, Euro hovers over 1.1100 and Loonie straddles 1.3130. Usd/Jpy, Eur/Usd and Usd/Cad all look capped by big expiries given 3 bn+, almost 4 bn and 1.1 bn respectively around 109.45-50, between 1.1140-45 and 1.1150 and between 1.3140-50 respectively.

In commodities, little by way of fresh catalysts to drive the energy complex in the run-up to the holiday season with the futures trading modestly in negative territory. WTI and Brent futures remain caged within relatively tight intraday bands of USD 0.30-50/bbl and around USD 61.00/bbl and under USD 65.50/bbl respectively at time of writing. On the geopolitical front, a US probe into the attacks on the Aramco facilities showed it came from the north, with US Envoy to Iran Hook suggesting Iran launched the strike. Tehran, in response, denied carrying out the assault. Elsewhere, spot gold trades sideways above the USD 1475/oz mark and gravitates around its 50 DMA (USD 1477.09/oz) as the yellow metal remains on standby for macro developments. Copper meanwhile trades on the backfoot, having lost the 2.80/lb mark in early EU trade, which may have triggered more pronounced downside amid potential stops tripped at the round figure.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.1%, prior 2.1%
    • Core PCE QoQ, est. 2.1%, prior 2.1%
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
  • 10am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.0%; Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
  • 10am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.3%
  • 10am: PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%; PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.6%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 99.2, prior 99.2
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Current Conditions, prior 115.2; Expectations, prior 88.9
  • 10am: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.4%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.3%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -2.5, prior -3

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Friday to all and welcome to the last EMR of 2019 and indeed the entire decade. It’s been an eventful period, and over that time we’ve seen a massive global equity rally, the rise of populism, higher global debt levels, the survival of the Euro and the longest-ever US expansion. Amidst these seismic events, the last decade has arguably been the best yet on a number of metrics, whether it’s record-breaking global life expectancy, literacy rates or reductions in poverty. On a personal level too, the 2010s saw me get my first graduate job working for Jim Reid. Let’s hope this flattery works when it comes to my next appraisal.

In markets, investor sentiment is similarly buoyant as the move towards risk assets continues, and US equity markets pressed on yesterday to yet another record high. The S&P 500 ended the session +0.45%, breaching the 3200 mark for the first time, while the Dow Jones (+0.49%) and the NASDAQ (+0.67%) also powered forward to new records. In Europe, the STOXX 600 advanced by +0.17%, not quite at its all-time high but still just a +0.65% increase away from its record earlier in the week. Elsewhere, Brent crude was up +0.56% yesterday in its 6th successive move higher, closing at a fresh 3-month high.

It was the reverse picture in bond markets, with sovereign debt selling off on both sides of the Atlantic. 10yr Treasury yields rose +0.4bps to 1.920%, and the 2s10s curve steepened by +0.5bps to close at its highest level since November 2018. In Europe bunds (+1.5bps), OATs (+1.2bps) and BTPs (+4.5bps) all saw yields rise, with Greek sovereign debt underperforming as 10yr yields rose +9.4bps.

The sell-off came as the Riksbank became the first central bank in the world to move out of negative interest rates yesterday, thanks to a 25bp hike in the repo rate to 0%. Although the move was in line with expectations, this sets a potential precedent for other central banks to similarly move away from negative rates. That said, the Riskbank’s forecast for the repo rate didn’t show much sign of going higher than zero anytime soon, with the forecast for the repo rate remaining at zero for Q4 2020 and Q4 2021.

The other major central bank decision yesterday was here in the UK, where the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 0.75%, in line with expectations. However, as happened at the previous meeting, 2 of the 9 MPC members voted for a 25bp cut. In the summary released after the meeting, the MPC kept their options open, saying that they “could respond in either direction to changes in the economic outlook in order to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target.” In a note out yesterday (link here), our UK economists stuck to their base case of a January rate cut, writing that “we think there is sufficient time for the MPC to turn more dovish” before the January meeting.

Speaking of the Bank of England, last night the FT reported that Andrew Bailey had been selected as the next governor, though no official announcement has yet been made at time of writing. Bailey is currently the head of the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority and was previously a Deputy Governor at the BoE. It comes ahead of incumbent governor Mark Carney’s departure at the end of January, having served as the BoE governor since July 2013.

Staying with the UK, sterling extended its losses yesterday, in spite of its brief move higher following the BoE’s decision, to close -0.53% lower against the US dollar, as investors continued to weigh the possibility that the UK could reach the end of the Brexit transition period at the end of 2020 without having agreed a trade deal with the EU. It came as the government announced its legislative agenda for the coming session of Parliament, with MPs due to start debating the legislation to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement today. In line with the government’s commitment not to extend the transition period, the bill that was published yesterday included a section that expressly prohibited a UK minister agreeing to an extension.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets have mostly followed the US upwards. Although the Nikkei is unchanged this morning, the Hang Seng (+0.37%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.19%) and the Kospi (+0.18%) have all moved higher. S&P 500 futures are pointing to little change, currently down -0.01%. Looking at other news from overnight, Bloomberg reported that Chinese President Xi was not planning to go to the World Economic Forum at Davos, removing the possible opportunity of a meeting with President Trump, who Bloomberg reports will be in attendance.

In terms of data, we had a number of releases from the US yesterday, but they pretty much all surprised to the downside. The Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook indicator fell to +0.3 (vs. +8.0 expected), below all estimates on Bloomberg and the weakest since June. Initial jobless claims came in above expectations at 234k last week (vs. 225k expected), sending the 4-week moving average up to 225.5k, its highest level since February. Existing home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35m (vs. 5.44m expected) in November, while the Conference Board’s leading economic index was unchanged (vs. +0.1% expected).

The data was marginally more positive in Europe. The INSEE’s business climate indicator for France in December came in at 106 (vs. 104 expected), with the manufacturing confidence indicator also beating expectations at 102 (vs. 99 expected). UK retail sales were more subdued however, falling -0.6% (vs. +0.2% expected) in November. The figure brings the yoy increase down to +1.0%, the lowest since April 2018.

To the day ahead now, and it’s a fairly busy one for data releases. From Europe we’ve got the Euro Area’s current account balance for October, along with the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in December. In Germany, GfK will be releasing their January consumer confidence index, and here in the UK, we’ll get the final reading of Q3 GDP along with November public finance data. Over in the US, releases include the third reading of Q3 GDP, November data on personal income and personal spending, December’s Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, and the final University of Michigan sentiment indicator for December. From central banks, we’ll get remarks from the BoE’s Haskel, while in the political sphere, UK MPs will be debating legislation to implement the Withdrawal Agreement.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.17 POINTS OR 0.40%  //Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 70.86 POINTS OR 0.25%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 48.22 POINTS OR 0.20%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .26%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0077 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0077 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0014 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China

Funny: Cash strapped banks are now offering pork to lure new depositors

(zerohedge)

Cash-Strapped Chinese Banks Are Offering Pork To Lure New Depositors

In the peak days of the European financial crisis, when Spanish banks were on the verge of collapse and were desperate for depositor funding as the ECB scrambled to come up with a viable rescue scheme, one bank – the soon to be insolvent Bankia – had a “clever” idea: offer a Spiderman Beach Towel in exchange for a €300 deposit.

Fast forward 7 years when the cash-strapped banks of another country have come up with a similar trick to entice depositors: a growing number of small local banks across China have conceived of a “brilliant” scheme to lure new depositors: handing out servings of expensive pork as a reward for opening an account, the SCMP reports.

As we discussed in recent months, China’s smaller banks were hit by a perfect storm of falling rates and declining state support, which culminated in bank runs and the nationalization of several small and medium banks. And since there is little hope that the status quo will change any time soon, Chinese banks – which on top of everything are facing a $400 billion liquidity shortfall in January  – are forced to go to greater lengths to attract new deposits, since they generally earn less money from lending and have fewer funding options than their larger peers.

Unlike Spain, Chinese banks are offering a product which is in great demand for the nation that is reeling as a result of “pig ebola”: pork. Indeed, as SCMP adds, the fact that pork could be seen as a desirable reward for opening a bank account also speaks to the country’s massive shortage of its favorite staple meat.

Who knew the intersection of the supply and demand curves would be marked by a pound of pork.

On Monday, clients who deposited 10,000 yuan (US$1,430) or more in a three-month time deposit at the Linhai Rural Commercial Bank in Duqiao in Zhejiang province were then eligible to enter a lottery to win a portion of pork ranging from 500 grams (18 ounces) to several kilograms.

“The money is still my own, and the interest is good. I’m happy to receive a piece of pork in addition,” one female client, who deposited around 20,000 yuan (US$2,900), was quoted as saying by the Metropolitan Express. Unfortunately for said client, she failed to grasp that any bank that is resorting to such ham-headed measures to boost depositor interest will likely not be around for long, and her entire deposit will likely vaporize in the coming weeks.

In any case, the gimmick is working: according to the Express, the bank distributed 1,097 deposit rewards on Monday after scores of mostly elderly clients queued up in front of the bank from early that morning.

“It was quite a good idea and very popular among locals, especially the elderly,” said a bank staff member, who did not offer his name. He also refused to comment on how much money the bank had received in new deposits due to the promotion.

In retrospect, it is a brilliant solution: instead of offering higher rates which only accelerate the banks insolvency as these require higher payouts on deposits, the bank is instead making a one-time payment, and the novelty of the “handout” is enough to get substantial new deposits.

Other rural commercial banks in northern China’s Hebei province and western China’s Guizhou province have also launched similar pork rewards programs. Dushan Rural Commercial Bank, located in the remote mountainous county in Guizhou, offered a coupon for 10 yuan (US$1.4) worth of pork for every 10,000 yuan of new deposits.

The reason behind China’s infatuation with pork is familiar: the outbreak of African swine fever, which is reported to have killed over 100 million pigs in China, has sent the price of pork skyrocketing, with November’s consumer price index rising 4.5 per cent from a year earlier, up from a 3.8 per cent gain in October, in large part due to a 110.2 per cent increase in the price of pork.

There were some signs of improvement: China’s pig population actually expanded in November for the first time in a year, while the price of pork price has fallen in recent weeks. The pig population in 400 counties monitored by China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs grew 2% in November from October, the first monthly rise since November 2018, while the number of breeding sows rose 4% from a month earlier. Wholesale pork prices last week fell back 0.8 per cent from the previous week, the fourth straight weekly decline, according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday.

 

Wholesale pork prices last week fell back 0.8 per cent from the previous week, the fourth straight weekly decline

China’s pig population, though, is around 40% smaller than it was a year ago, according to data from China’s agriculture ministry.

Still, despite recent signs of improvement, experts said the crisis may worsen further next year before it improves.

“It depends on what you mean on whether the worst is over because it’s already killed most of [China’s pigs]. There aren’t as many pigs to kill as there were before,” said E. Wayne Johnson, a veterinarian consultant at Enable AgTech Consulting in Beijing.

“We expect that there will be outbreaks in the wintertime because it’s very difficult to clean the trucks, particularly in the north of China, and the virus is preserved by cold weather. Plus, you have the fact that the infected pigs are continuing to go into the slaughterhouses, and everybody sends their trucks to the slaughterhouse. So the disease is being spread on the highways just as it was a year ago. There’s no reason to think that it’s over with.”

With peak seasons for pork consumption just around the corner – with celebrations for the winter solstice this week, the new year holiday on January 1 and the week-long Lunar New Year holiday starting on January 25 – the pressure on the price of pork is set to increase due to limited supplies. To alleviate the coming demand surge, on Tuesday, the government announced that it would release an additional 40,000 tonnes of frozen pork reserves on Thursday, on top of the previous round of 40,000 tonnes released a week ago.

China also announced earlier this month that it would waive import tariffs on some pork shipments from the United States. In total, China will purchase over 3 million tonnes of pork this year, more than twice as much as last year, confirmed Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng at the end of last month.

Beijing has also called for a relaxation of restrictions on pig farming on land normally reserved for forests, with the land only returning to forestry production after the pork supply crisis
has been resolved, according to a document from the National Forestry and Grassland Administration dated Monday and seen by the South China Morning Post.

“These [recently announced] measures are very positive and effective moves,” said Wang Zuli, a research fellow with the Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences. “But pork reserves have been unable to fully resolve the supply problem, so it is hard to say whether the measures are sufficient.”

end
China
China Premier warns of economic turmoil in 2002
(zerohedge)

China Premier Warns Of Economic Turmoil In 2020, Continued Deceleration Means Global Rebound Unlikely

Chinese premier Li Keqiang was quoted on state television by Reuters on Thursday as saying the economy could face tremendous downward pressure in 2020.

Li said the downward pressures could be even greater than what was seen in 2019; he made no mention of the possible trade resolution with the US would correct economic growth.

He said the government would implement monetary and fiscal policies to keep the economic expansion within a consistent range throughout 2020. This could be the latest confirmation that China’s GDP could slip underneath 6%.

A similar warning was echoed by an advisor to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) last week, who said China’s economy might not recover for the next five years.

 

Liu Shijin, a policy adviser to the PBoC, said the country’s GDP will decelerate through 2025 and could print in a range of 5 to 6%.

Shijin warned that excessive monetary policy is failing to stimulate the economy and could cause it to decelerate in the year ahead.

Last month, we noted that China’s credit growth plunged to the weakest pace since 2017 as a continued collapse in shadow banking, weak corporate demand for credit, and seasonal effects all signaled that China’s economy, nevertheless, the global economy, will continue to slow in 2020.

A further deceleration in China’s economy could ruin the party for equity bulls, who have already priced in a massive 2016-style rebound in the global economy for 1Q20. A slowing China means the world could fail to rebound, though we don’t discount the stabilization narrative.

With China’s economy unlikely to sharply rebound early next year, global investors could find themselves repricing growth in the near term as global equities are at all-time highs thanks to massive money printing by central banks.

To gain more color on China’s extended slowdown, Fathom Consulting’s China Momentum Indicator (CMI) provides a more in-depth view of China’s economic activity than the official Chinese GDP statistics.

CMI is based on ten alternative indicators for economic activity; some of those indicators include railway freight, electricity consumption, and the issuance of bank loans.

Fathom has stated that in CMI, the calculation of the index avoids measuring construction activity, and instead focuses on shadow measures of economic activity. The consulting group says this allows the index to be “less prone to manipulation than the headline GDP figures.”

“In 2014, when China’s traditional growth model was running out of steam and vulnerabilities were rising, authorities toyed with credit tightening and an enforced rebalancing. But at the end of 2015, when growth slowed too sharply, they quickly threw in the towel, resorting to the old growth model of credit-fuelled growth. With growth once again slowing, and past precedent suggesting credit has neared its limit, China finds itself at a crossroad,” Fathom recently said.

China’s failure to stimulate its economy suggests CMI will continue a downward trajectory that has been underway for the last decade.

We’ve recently outlined the bust of the global auto industry has weighed down the Chinese economy. With no signs of an upswing in the auto market, China’s economy will remain depressed in the years ahead.

As China’s economy slows, global commodity prices are stuck in a deflationary spiral.

China’s slowing economy warns that global equities have mispriced growth for early 1Q20.

Looking for signs of life in the Chinese economy — there aren’t any at the moment.

Société Générale’s latest report shows employment in China contracting across manufacturing and non-manufacturing, outlining how the slowdown is broad-based.

Bloomberg has compiled a list of long-time China watchers that are warning about an extended slowdown.

George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre and author of “Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy:” 

In the spirit of self-criticism, I’d say my best call on the economy was an early spot of the huge demographic shift that kicked off in earnest in 2012, an abiding assertion that China’s elevated growth rates could not be sustained, and anticipation of a financial crisis that turned up in 2015-16. Worst call was thinking that crisis might turn into a ‘Minsky Moment’ for China, as per 2007-08, and failing to integrate properly the tools the state has to prevent catastrophic failure.

I expect China to flirt with officially recorded growth of around 6%, but the reality is that the tempo of growth is ratcheting down to somewhere between 3% and 4%. In 2020, perhaps 5.8% to 6%, officially, not least because the economic news has to remain upbeat ahead of the CCP centenary in 2021. The consequences of over-indebtedness, demographic change, inadequate wealth transfer and income redistribution policies, and stagnant total factor productivity growth associated with institutional flaws are the main drags on growth. The 2020s will be a challenging time for China.

Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs Group chief economist who coined the term BRIC: 

The BRICs path assumed China would grow 5% a year in the decade 2020-29 and I have no reason for changing this. If it does, and so long as the renminbi doesn’t decline a lot in value, then by the end of the decade, China will be very close to being as big in current dollar terms as the US.

As this decade nears its end, China has major problems positioning itself in the world. As evidenced by the Uighur situation, China’s approach to life now gets much more global attention than when it was smaller. In the coming decade, China has to somehow develop a more subtle and sophisticated stance on many of these issues, and I am not sure Beijing fully realizes this yet.

Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research: 

Demography is starting to really weigh on China’s growth. China is rapidly evolving into the world’s largest nursing home.

They are going to have to provide a social safety net for these folks who are going to get older and need health care. If they don’t do that, they are going to depress their consumers. When you want to be a superpower, there are a lot of factors that matter, and demography is certainly one of them.

The biggest takeaway is China produced 60% of the world’s debt over the last ten years and is the biggest driver in global economic growth. A slowing China means the global economy will likely remain stagnate in 2020.

 

END
CHINA/USA
The following commentary explains why it is impossible for the phase one trade deal to be implemented
(zerohedge)

Why The “Phase One” Trade Deal Is Impossible, In One Chart

Last Friday, in oddly mis-coordinated announcements, the US and China announced that the two nations had reached the long-awaited ‘Phase One’ trade deal, as a result of which the US would not implement the Dec 15 tariff and would roll back the latest round of September tariffs by half, from 15% to 7.5%, while in return China promised a “best effort” to purchase $40 billion in agricultural products from the US. There is just one problem with this arrangement: as we first noted last weekit will never happen, and here’s why.

Assuming a similar export mix as in 2017, this would translate into an unprecedented 235% volumetric increase in 2020 US agricultural exports to China over 2019, according to Goldman Sachs. The problem is that while US exports to China had declined sharply in 2018, other nations stepped in, in many cases with long-term bilateral contracts in place ensuring the long-term delivery of ag products from mostly Latin American substitute markets. This, as Goldman points out, means that such an increase in Chinese purchases from the US “would likely be hugely disruptive to global agriculture markets, primarily crowding out Argentine and Brazilian supplies that have taken substantial market share since 2017 due to the trade war and much weaker currencies.

To get a sense of just how improbable such a surge in Chinese imports from the US is, here is a visual representation of what this “disruptive increase” in US agri exports to China would look like…

… and also why the assumption in exported quantities to China is, as Goldman points out, thoroughly “unreaslitic.

Therefore, it is only a matter of time before officials, markets and farmers all realize that the terms of Phase One are unreachable, and the US admin will have no choice but to resort to a new round of tariffs. Which explains the veiled threat from Wilbur Ross earlier today, who said that the US “could add” tariffs if China doesn’t uphold the trade deal.

  • ROSS: COULD ADD TARIFFS IF CHINA DOESN’T UPHOLD TRADE DEAL

Since it is an absolute certainty that China won’t uphold the trade deal, the real question is when will Trump announce that China has failed to live by the agreement. Considering that Trump will need a market boost heading into November, it would mean that a new tariff threat will likely have to be unveiled at least several months ahead of time, only for Trump to fold again shortly before November 2020, unleashing another “trade optimism” relief rally.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

A big story..FCA chairman Andrew Bailey selected to become Governor of the Bank of England.

(London’s Telegraph)

Andrew Bailey Picked As Next Bank of England Governor: FT

With outgoing BOE governor and former Goldman Sachs partner Mark Carney on his merry way to become the UN’s special envoy for climate action and finance (where he will collect a $1 salary) replacing Michael Bloomberg in the part time pro bono climate action role, moments ago the FT reported that Andrew Bailey, ironically enough head of the Financial Conduct Authority, has been selected as the new governor of the Bank of England, with the official appointment to be announced as early as Friday. We say ironically, because just yesterday we learned that the BOE was inadvertently leaking inside info via a “hacked” audio stream that was going to clients of a audio-delivery company, which according to the WSJ may be Statisma.

 

Andrew Bailey

According to the FT, Bailey is a former deputy governor of the bank and has long been seen as a highly qualified domestic candidate. However, his chances appeared to have been dented by a series of financial scandals in the past year where questions were raised over the effectiveness of the FCA as a regulator, especially now when it comes to the Bank of England itself.

Bailey will take over from Mark Carney, the Canadian incumbent, at the start of February becoming the 121st governor of Britain’s central bank. “He inherits a central bank in testing economic times with monetary policy close to the limits of its effectiveness and the new government seeking to boost the economy with a massive expansion of infrastructure spending.”

The two other candidates, Minouche Shafik, director of the London School of Economics, and the “dark horse” candidate, Kevin Warsh, a former member of the US Federal Reserve’s board of governors, were ruled out earlier this week the FT’s sources report. Warsh is a friend of George Osborne, the former chancellor, who stunned the financial world in 2012 when he appointed Carney to the BoE.

Meanwhile, Gerard Lyons, previously Boris Johnson’s economic adviser as London mayor, had not performed well in interview and had been deemed not to meet the requirements of the job description.

The appointment of the next governor has been a protracted process overshadowed by Brexit and the change of leadership of the Conservative party and a new chancellor in Sajid Javid. Javid is preparing to announce the new governor, with the news expected on Friday.

Sources close to the process indicated that the potential candidates had been vetted on the basis of past statements and whether they were compatible with the directions of the new government in a job where the BoE and government have to work in alignment on many issues.

For example, “Shafik was rejected partly as the result of her critical views on Brexit. Those close to the process said candidates’ positions on the issue were a key factor in the process.”

The successful candidate does not need to be approved by MPs on the Treasury select committee, but Javid has reassured the committee that any appointment will be made in time to ensure they would be able to hold a hearing with the appointed person before the new term of office is set to start in February 2020.

Finally, for those wondering, no, Andrew Bailey has never worked at Goldman, perhaps a testament to the waning influence of the bank which once upon a time was an incubator of central bankers around the globe.

end
Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal clear first vote as they now get ready for the second vote which will allow the UK to leave the EU
(zerohedge)

Boris Johnson’s Brexit Deal Clears First Vote As Pound Slides 

As was widely expected given the Tories massive majority in Parliament, Boris Johnson’s Brexit withdrawal agreement has cleared the first procedural vote in Westminster, setting the stage for its eventual passage, which will lead the UK to exit the European Union on Jan. 31.

The pound didn’t react much to the news. Instead, it continued to trade near its lows of the session. The British currency is on track to cement its worst weekly drop in two years, as traders fear Johnson’s insistence that he won’t extend the Brexit transition period beyond the end of next year.

The bill passed by a vote of 358 to 234, a majority of 124. It now goes on to further scrutiny in parliament. Of more concern to traders (as mentioned above), the bill also contains a provision that would prohibit any extensions of the Brexit transition period past the end of 2020.

end
UK/USA
Michael Every discusses the two most important topics of the day: Brexit, the new Governor of the Bank of England and the Impeachment affair in the USA
(Michael Every)

Rabobank: Is Pelosi Aiming To Drag Impeachment In Hopes Republicans Flip The Senate

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

First, an apology. Yesterday’s Daily noted that Donald Trump had just become the third US president to be impeached after Nixon and Clinton. This was of course wrong. Nixon resigned before he could be impeached, and it was Andrew Johnson in 1868 was impeached for “High Crimes and Misdemeanours” – which in his case was firing the Secretary of War and attempting to replace him with someone he liked more. His trial went to the Senate, where he was acquitted. His trial laid down the constitutional principle, later backed by the Supreme Court, that Congress should not remove the president from office simply because its members disagreed with him over policy, style, and the administration of his office. Which is of course what Trump’s supporters claim is happening today when not shouting “Witch Hunt!” Anyway, an end-of-year lapse in mental acuity was to blame for that slip (though Wakanda really was listed on the USDA website, honest!).

The latest impeachment twist is that House leader Nancy Pelosi has decided not to send the two just-passed articles of impeachment to the Senate yet: she is claiming she will not do so until she can be assured of a “fair” trial in a Congressional body over which she has no constitutional role. Admittedly Senate Republicans have made clear they will throw out the charges against Trump ASAP, as was the case with Johnson back in 1868.

Is Pelosi aiming to drag this all out into election year in the hope it wins more votes? Or that Republicans will flip in the Senate? Or are the articles to be held in abeyance like a loaded gun in the hope that post-November, a re-elected President Trump may find a more Democratic Senate to immediately push him out of office again? That’s probably not really a constitutional journey the stability-loving markets would hope the US is undertaking; regardless, the total lack of reaction to this political theatre so far suggest that it is…all political theatre.

Far more important is that the House of Representatives just passed the USMCA, giving NAFTA 2.0 the green light. Off to the Senate it goes for a “fair” examination – and then, like it or not, it’s a foreign policy win for Trump. On which note, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says that the US-China trade deal is all agreed and is being “scrubbed” for a January signing. When I hear that word with this deal, why do I get a flashback to the nasty but necessary treatment with brushes those exposed to radiation get from people in hazmat suits? Anyway, that just means we will all find out soon enough what China has or hasn’t signed up to, and hence if it can or can’t or will or won’t stick to it. Need I add that markets loved it regardless, and we are at fresh record highs in US stocks?

But back to political theatre. The other Johnson in the Daily, Boris, gave his second Queen’s Speech in quick succession yesterday and promised a constitutional revolution and a harder Brexit. The latter bill, whose first reading will be today, has removed parliament’s say on the future arrangements agreed with the EU, and sets end-2020 as a cliff edge. No sign at all of a pivot towards a softer Brexit here – unless one ignores the fact that Boris has only got to where he is today by repeatedly tearing the steering wheel out of the vehicle, a negotiating tactic his critics seem to keep failing to recognise.

On the broader socio-economic front Bojo has pledged a new Constitution, Democracy, and Rights Commission to examine “how our democracy operates” (or how Russia allows it to operate, in the eyes of some). There will be an end to free movement, of course, and an Australia-style points-based immigration policy (which has not stopped major net immigration there); there are suggestions we might see the politicization of judicial appointments, as in the US, but Downing Street say this is not the case; the Fixed Term Parliament Act is to go, so no more repeats of the pre-election mess; a new law will fund the NHS; new anti-terrorism legislation will be seen, and new “espionage legislation” to update the Official Secrets Act, along with talk of “hostile states” (Russia? China? France?), and possibly introducing a register of foreign agents operating in the UK, again as in the US; tougher jail sentences; and anti-BDS legislation. Overall, the measures look suitably populist–dare one say Trumpian?–for the global zeitgeist, and have “Get Brexit Done” stamped on them in red ink for BoJo’s new working-class electorate. (And, his critics allege, “I don’t know much about art, but I know what I like”.)

Just as significant, on the back of the BOE meeting yesterday–see here for more on that from Stefan Koopman–we are to also get a new Governor. Mark Carney will be replaced by Andrew Bailey, a three-decade BOE insider who has come under the spotlight over questions of how he handled financial misconduct under his supervision. That’s just as, coincidentally, there is a scandal breaking over hedge funds having potentially gained market advantage via getting faster audio transmissions from outgoing governor Carney after a third-party supplier gained access to the BOE’’s backup audio feed. Naturally, this is an outrage. Not appointing Bailey – hedge funds rigging the markets. Anyway, GBP really hasn’t enjoyed this last little populist ride, and is now around 1.30 again.

EU
Claudio Grass is desperate to stimulate their economies.  The ECB now wants member states to fiscally stimulate their economies to oblivion
(Grass/Mises)

A Desperate ECB Wants To Eliminate The Eurozone’s “Only Saving Grace”

Authored by Claudio Grass via The Mises Institute,

Economists, conservative investors, and market observers have been issuing stern warnings for years regarding the severe impact of the current monetary policy direction.

The ECB’s Poblems

In a recent statement, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos warned of potential side effects and risks to the economy resulting directly from the central bank’s policies. He outlined how a decade of extremely aggressive monetary interventions have resulted in an erosion of financial stability and now pose a threat to the eurozone’s economic outlook. While he defended the bank’s negative interest rate strategy as “supportive” of the overall economy, he did admit that, because of it, “we also note an increase in risk-taking which could, in the medium term, create financial-stability challenges”.

This is a point that was also highlighted in the ECB’s latest financial stability review, which found that the ultra-low interest rates have triggered excessive risk-taking, mainly by investment funds, insurers, and in certain real estate markets, thereby creating considerable stability concerns going forward. The report identified four main threats to financial stability for the block: asset mispricing, which sets the stage for a correction, corporate overindebtedness, which raises debt sustainability concerns, dangerously weak banking sector profitability, leading to increased risk-taking, and excessive risks taken in the non-bank financial sector, which could be facing “profitability and solvency challenges.”

Although none of this is news to the responsible investor and to the reader who understands monetary history and the inevitable consequences of trying to forcibly twist basic economic laws, it still remains surprising that the ECB would publicly acknowledge it. The timing is even more striking, as the report, outlining the risks associated with the current monetary policy direction, came out very soon after the bank announced its decision to double down on it, cutting rates even lower and launching a new round of quantitative easing (QE).

Lagarde’s “Solution”

As the ECB appears to be finally acknowledging the limitations and terrible side effects of its own monetary “cures,” and as the eurozone economy continues to struggle, the central planners’ focus seems to be shifting to other measures and tools in hopes of a growth revival. Their “solution” is for governments to deploy fiscal measures and to try to stimulate the sluggish euro area economy through spending. 

A great example of this “refocusing” was given by Christine Lagarde in late November. In her first major speech since becoming ECB president, she made no substantive comments on or references to the role of the central bank itself, or to an actual policy revision to help support the ailing eurozone economy. Instead, she concentrated on what member states can do and on the part that increased public investment should play going forward. She highlighted that that monetary policy “cannot and should not be the only game in town,” and she urged European governments to boost spending. She also argued what the EU needs in order to increase productivity is more integration in various areas including capital markets and the banking sector.

It can be argued that the only saving grace of the eurozone’s deeply problematic economic and monetary structure is the fact that at least some of the member states, through the budgetary leeway the system affords, did manage their finances in a comparatively responsible way. Now, it is those states that are in the crosshairs of the ECB, as President Lagarde demonstrated when she singled out “countries with chronic budget surpluses like the Netherlands and Germany” and criticized them for not spending enough. There’s a lot of support for this position, as many are eyeing those surpluses as a way out of the economic glut that the bloc is currently in. As French Minister of the Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire clearly put it in September, “What’s the point of having public accounts perfectly in order … if your European neighbors can’t benefit from your growth and economic dynamism?”

Of course, the sound investor can immediately see the many dangers that lie in this direction. On top of monetary excesses, the road is now being paved for fiscal ones too. Absurd as it might sound, the central bankers’ solution for their concerns of overindebtedness and financial instability — which they’ve admitted their own policies gave rise to — is to encourage the very few member states with stable budgets to destabilize themselves. At a time like this, when the next recession is around the corner and when the ECB has little to no ammunition left to fight it, it seems clear that the individual states that “kept their powder dry” fiscally would be better positioned to take action against the effects of the slowdown. Criticizing budget discipline and surpluses and promoting spending and further integration is a strategy that is bound to seriously backfire, and one that will only serve to exacerbate the impact of the economic slowdown.

This approach also highlights the institutional myopia at the very top of the eurozone. Having learned nothing from the mistakes of the last recession, the “cures” that are being prescribed for the next one are very likely to come with even worse side effects. It is thus clear that it is up to the individual investor and saver to prepare and to protect their wealth from the risks that lie ahead.

END
GERMANY
German economy looks to contract in the latest Q4
(zerohedge)

“We Could At Most Hope For Stagnation:” German Economy To Contract In Q4

Global stocks have priced in a massive economic rebound from the US, Europe, and China for early 2020, with the latest Fund Manager Survey indicating the biggest jump in optimism on record. But is this optimism justified? Is it possible that after a brief push higher, deceleration resume as the world’s manufacturing complex remains mired in a deep recession.

The German Institute for Economic Research, also known as DIW Berlin, warned Friday that Q4 export-oriented manufacturing continued to decelerate, according to Reuters. It’s expected that Europe’s largest economy will contract by 0.1% in the October-December period.

“We could at most hope for stagnation,” DIW economist Claus Michelsen said.

DIW’s forecast for Q4 is much different than Ifo institute’s forecast that predicts the quarter will expand by 0.2%.

Germany’s export-dependent industry groups slashed production this year, citing a global synchronized slowdown that stared before the trade war. German manufacturers fell into a recession this year on the heels of economic deceleration in the US and China.

German manufacturers also cite the trade war and Brexit uncertainties. Still, one of the reasons why manufacturing has been in a recession is due to the collapse of the global car industry.

DIW said despite the gloom and doom, there’s hope that Germany’s economy can rebound in the year ahead.

“German companies are again looking positively into the future, especially when it comes to their international business,” said Michelsen.

 

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said Friday that the economy had averted a recession.

But the issue with Germany is that its economy is heavily export-driven and would need to see economic rebounds in the US and China for revival.

So far, despite equity markets across the world trading at all time highs and pricing in a recovery for early 2020 – there’s little evidence that suggests a rebound is imminent.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

SWITZERLAND//THE GLOBE

A good Bellwether on global growth Swiss watches and timepieces have hit a 3 decade low

(zerohedge)

Watch Out: Swiss Timepiece Shipments Hit Three Decade Low

Aggregate discretionary spending power among global consumers seems to be waning at the moment, coinciding with a global slowdown that has sent many manufacturing hubs across the world into a recession. Central bankers are concerned that the manufacturing slowdown has already transmitted weakness to consumers.

Diamonds, jewelry, and timepieces have seen lackluster demand in developed and emerging economies in 2019. This could be the result of consumers pulling back on spending as uncertainty builds in the global economy for 2020.

Focusing on Switzerland, the latest Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry report indicates exports have fallen to levels not seen since the mid-1980s as demand for low-end timepieces sinks.

 

The report notes that 18.9 million watches were exported in the first 11 months of the year were down 13% Y/Y.

Demand for Swiss watches sank to levels not seen since 1984 at 17.8 million units.

Bloomberg notes that smartwatches, such as Apple Watch, Samsung Galaxy Watch, and the Garmin smartwatch, have dented demand for Swiss watches under $200. The slump was also seen on higher-priced Swiss watches.

“There is only one way that the lower-end volumes are going, and that is downwards,” said Deborah Aitken, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Swatch needs to move up the value chain.”

Watchmakers in the country are responding to evolving consumer trends with the focus on higher-end watches above $3,000 and up.

Much of the waning demand is coming from Southeast Asia, Europe, and other emerging market countries. Some of these countries are heavily reliant on China for economic growth and haven’t retooled their economies for a decelerating China. Also, socio-economic chaos in Hong Kong dented demand as mainlanders refused to visit the city as violent protests continued into the sixth month.

So could weakening consumer spending trends in diamonds, jewelry, and timepieces be an early warning sign that trouble is ahead for the global economy in 2020?

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA

Protests were banned in India.  That set off a fire storm!!

(zerohedge)

 

Protests Banned Across India After All Hell Breaks Loose

Tens of thousands of people in at least 15 cities across India Thursday defied a government ban on protests after violent demonstrations last week sent the country into chaos following the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), reported Bloomberg.

CAA is a measure that the Modi government passed into law last Wednesday that allows amnesty to only non-Muslim illegal immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan. The result of the controversial new citizenship law considered by many to be discriminatory against Muslims led to violent protest late last week and through the weekend.

Christians, Buddhists, Sikhs, Jains, and Parsis from the three eligible countries can now receive citizenship if they have illegally entered India though Muslims from the same countries cannot.

The protest ban is a police order that prohibits more than four people from assembling. Still, tens of thousands of people ignored the government’s call to stand down and have been demonstrating this week, especially in regions of Bangalore, Hyderabad, Patna, Chandigarh, and Delhi.

Reuters

@Reuters

Hundreds of people have been arrested in parts of India as authorities impose internet blackouts in an effort to end mass protests against a controversial citizenship law that has rocked the country for the past week https://reut.rs/34xlZUg

Embedded video

Telecom companies and internet service providers in high protest regions shut down data service this week, likely on government orders, to squash coordination efforts of organizers who were responsible for assembling thousands of people into the streets via social media.

While Thursday’s protests have been relatively calm – here’s what happened last weekend:

Mohammad Ahsan Kaleem@Mohamma75519811

Protests against controversial citizenship law in India If minorities and states cannot get citizenship, let freedom be one nation cannot bear another nation’s right to live is the right of all. @majorgauravarya @narendramodi

Embedded video

LiberatePOK@LiberatePOK

7 trains have been torched in Bengal causing a loss of about 50 crores.

Traitors & infiltrators causing loss of life & property must be shot at Sight.

IAS deserter @naukarshah who is one of the instigators of the so called protests must be brought to justice by @NIA_India

Embedded video

Global Politics🌏@Globalpoliticss

Protest against in India is getting intense and aggressive with each day.

Embedded video

Indian markets have ignored the social unrest as equities hit record highs for a third straight day. Sovereign bond yields have inched lower since the start of the uprising, while the rupee was calm.

Bloomberg notes that CAA “is seen as a precursor to the government’s plan to implement nationwide citizens register to weed out illegal migrants.”

Last Sunday, we noted the epicenter of the unrest was in Assam, a region of 1.9 million, with most of them Muslim — and some of them risk losing Indian citizenship after the state-enforced new citizens register in August.

“Our paranoid rulers in Delhi are fearful. Our Home Minister would not dare allow a peaceful protest,” Modi critic Ramachandra Guha said after police detained him at a protest in Bangalore. “Everyone should stand up; the entrepreneurs of Bangalore should stand up. Do they want this image to go around, that we are a quasi-dictatorship? We are here to assert our democratic rights.”

@Ram_Guha at a peaceful protest in Town Hall : our paranoid rulers in Delhi are scared

Embedded video

With the Indian economy quickly decelerating – the passage of CAA triggering social unrest can now allow the Modi government to scapegoat protesters as the reason why the economy is faltering.

Saxo Bank’s Christopher Dembik, global head of macro research, provides some color on the slowdown that is expected to roll well into 2020. Dembik warns: “All the leading indicators point out it will get worse.”

Christopher Nicolas Dembik@Dembik_Chris

India’s slowdown has certainly been the most under-appreciated aspect of the current global downturn. In Q3 this year, the Indian economy reached a 6-year low at 4.5% YoY, down from 5% in the previous quarter. All the leading indicators point out it will get worse.

View image on Twitter
end

ARGENTINA

This could also set off revolts among the populace as the government aims to hike export taxes on commodities again after already hiking them 3 days ago.

(zerohedge)

Farmers “Deeply Worried” As Argentina’s Fernandez Aims To Hike Export Taxes Twice In Three Days

Farmers in Argentina are finding out the wonderful benefits of taxation and government micromanagement first handJust three days after the government hiked export taxes for farmers, it is considering doing it again, causing outrage on the Pampas crop belt.

A bill sent to lawmakers proposes that taxes on soybean shipments could hike to 33%, according to BloombergThat compares to 30% currently and 24.7% last week. Corn and wheat would rise to 15%, from 12% currently and just 6.7% last week.

President Alberto Fernandez will need opposition votes to get the legislation through congress, despite holding a majority in the senate. Approval could come by the end of the month, should he get the votes he needs. The bill also contains a provision to reduce rates for exports with “added value”, meaning that soy meal and oil may be charged less than 33% “in a boon to crushers that have lost competitiveness and seen idle capacity rise after the differential with raw beans was scrapped last year.”

 

Argentina is a top exporter of soy meal, used as animal feed, and soy cooking oil. So far, it is unknown whether or not beef, the nation’s other major export, will be considered a value added product.

This move comes after Fernandez raised taxes on Saturday, which was just days after he took office. The hikes caused outrage among rural farmers and leaders who claimed they weren’t told it was coming. They also warned that output could suffer as a result.

One of Argentina’s biggest farm associations, CRA, said: “We are deeply worried about the latest measures.” 

 

Farmers are concerned that, despite Fernandez’s intentions to revive the economy, that he’s instead creating a hostile attitude toward farmers. Profit margins will suffer as a result of corn and wheat shipments being charged 15% – this could force farmers out of crop rotation strategies that came about in recent years to plant cheaper soybeans instead.

The effects of the tax hikes will be most prevalent next year, as this season’s wheat is already being harvested. It’s also too late to change plans for soybeans and corn. According to Jacob Christy, a trader at Andersons Inc., farmer selling could slow “considerably” and there could be an impact on global markets, despite some commodity traders already anticipating the increase.

END
INDONESIA
As we outlined to you yesterday the Pig ebola virus is running rampant in Indonesia
(Michael Snyder)

“Pig Ebola” Is Now Running Wild In Indonesia, And Has Already Killed A Quarter Of The World’s Swine

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

The global pig population is being absolutely decimated by a disease that does not have a cure.  African Swine Fever, also commonly referred to as “Pig Ebola”, is raging out of control in dozens of countries all over the globe.  It has a mortality rate of close to 100 percent, and once it hits an area even the pigs that are able to survive the disease are killed off in order to prevent it from spreading elsewhere.  Unfortunately, African Swine Fever just continues to pop up in more locations.  As you will see below, it is now sweeping through the heavily-populated nation of Indonesia. 

Nearly 270 million people live in Indonesia, and they are heavily dependent on pork as a source of protein.  But of course the same thing could be said about almost all of the countries where African Swine Fever is currently raging.

The mainstream media in the U.S. hasn’t been properly reporting on this crisis, and that is likely because this disease has not spread to our nation yet.

But let there be no doubt – this is truly a crisis of Biblical proportions.  In fact, it has been estimated that this epidemic has already killed about one-fourth of the world’s pigs.  The following comes from an Australian news source

Experts say the disease has wiped out an estimated 25 per cent of the world’s pig population.

The fever has been reported in around 50 countries, including China, Belgium, Slovakia, Cambodia, North Korea, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines.

And this same figure is being quoted by the New York Daily News

African swine fever has been reported in nearly 50 nations — including China, South Korea, the Philippines and Belgium — and it’s causing an incredible crisis on a global scale. Alarmingly, more than one-quarter of Earth’s pigs have been wiped out by the virulent disease.

This should be front page news all across America, but of course the big news networks really don’t want to talk about anything other than the impeachment of Donald Trump these days.

Unfortunately, everyone on the entire planet is going to feel the pain of this crisis as it continues to intensify.  We are potentially facing a serious global pork shortage, and this disease continues to pop up in new areas.  When it recently began spreading in Indonesia, it made headlines all over the globe.  The following comes from Reuters

Nearly 30,000 pigs have died from African swine fever (ASF) in Indonesia’s North Sumatra province as of Dec. 15, causing millions of dollars of economic losses as authorities try to quarantine the areas affected, officials said on Wednesday.

The Agriculture Ministry has declared an outbreak of the highly contagious virus in the country and said it is contained only in some parts of North Sumatra, minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo told reporters.

Asian countries rely very heavily on pork to feed their populations, and the severe losses that we are witnessing are not going to be easy to replace.  At this point, Indonesia has become the 11th Asian nation where African Swine Fever is spreading…

To date, 11 Asian countries have reported outbreaks since August 2018, including Indonesia, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea, China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Timor-Leste.

The epicenter for this crisis is in China.  The Chinese produce and eat more pork than anyone else in the world, and it was recently projected that their hog herd “will likely shrink by 55% by the end of the year” due to this disease…

China’s hog herd fell by half in the first eight months of 2019 due to a devastating outbreak of African swine fever and will likely shrink by 55% by the end of the year, analysts at Rabobank said on Wednesday.

As I detailed in a previous articleit has been estimated that 150 million pigs have already died in China.

To put that in perspective, there are only about 70 million pigs in the United States right now.

So you could kill every pig in the United States twice and you would still not get to the total that have already died in China because of this epidemic.

Needless to say, pork prices are absolutely soaring in China.  They have more than doubled since this time last year, and in November we saw another huge jump in Chinese food inflation.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

As has been the case for the past year, the culprit behind the headline CPI surge was food inflation, which accelerated further to a record +19.1% in November from +15.5% in October, primarily on higher inflation in fresh vegetable and pork prices.

So what is the bottom line?

 

The bottom line is that this is an extremely serious threat to the global food supply.

Beef, chicken, fish and pork are the four main global sources of protein, and right now pork is already in very short supply in some parts of the world.

And of course this comes at a time when global weather patterns are going absolutely nuts and we have seen disastrous harvest seasons all over the planet.

We are entering the time of “the perfect storm”, and most people have absolutely no idea what is ahead of us.

Even if you don’t eat pork, this is a story that you need to keep a very close eye on, because this is going to push up food prices everywhere.  Demand for beef, chicken and fish will increase as pork becomes more expensive and consumers turn to other options.  And in some of the poorer places around the world, some impoverished families may have to start cutting meat out of their diets entirely.

We have never seen a crisis quite like this in any of our lifetimes.  Despite all of our advanced technology, we are still dependent on farmers to produce the food that we eat, and this is truly an existential crisis for the entire global pork industry.

There is no way to spin this to make it sound nicer.  Many are hoping that this outbreak will subside eventually, but right now it doesn’t look like that will happen.

And once this disease reaches the United States, we will start to experience the same panic that is already sweeping through nearly 50 other nations around the globe.

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1100 DOWN .0023 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.31 DOWN 0.098 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3028   UP   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3177 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 23 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1100 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 12.17 POINTS OR 0.40% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 70.86 POINTS OR 0.25%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,26%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 70.86 POINTS OR 0.25%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.17 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 26% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 48.22  POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1479.05

silver:$17.09-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.94% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.36 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.49 UP 11 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.42% UP 1  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.45%/UP 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,41 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 96 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.25% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.66% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

 

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1076  DOWN     .0047 or 47 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.45 UP 0.063    YEN DOWN 6  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3049 UP .0032 POUND UP 32  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 44 basis points to 1.3168

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0065    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.000  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9313 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at .+ 0.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.92 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.35 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.67 UP 20  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 8.66  0.11%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 106.94 POINTS OR .81%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 49.25 POINTS 0.82%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 58.30 POINTS or 0.61%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 294.70 POINTS OR 1.24%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 60.55 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 66.16 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    62.23  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.17 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.25 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  60.33//

 

 

BRENT :  66.04

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.92..  DOWN ONE BASIS PT…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.34…DOWN ONE BASIS PT..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1077 ( DOWN 46   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.49 UP .082 (YEN DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.65 UP 31 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.30007 DOWN 9  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9391

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.30   UP 0.10 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 10 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3159 DOWN 36 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0065  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0006 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.25%

 

The Dow closed UP 78.13 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 37.74 POINTS OR 0.42%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.53 CLOSED UP  .03

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.908%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

US Equity Markets Just Reached ‘Record Euphoria’

The bears have left the building and very few see anything potentially derailing this US equity market melt-up in the next 6-12 months…

Source: RBC

Leaving investors at record levels of euphoria

Source: RBC

  • In July 2019, CFTC data on US equity futures positioning returned to the highs of January 2018 and September 2018, which in turn were in line with pre-Financial Crisis highs. This told us that institutional investor positioning was euphoric and that the US stock market was vulnerable to bad news. In August, positioning on this indicator fell sharply, getting about halfway back down to the May and December 2018 lows before stabilizing.
  • This indicator has moved up again in 4Q19, and as of December 10th (the latest data available) was slightly above the levels that have marked significant peaks in the stock market over the past few years.
  • Note that each of the recent peaks are associated with policy catalysts (Tax Reform, Trade War, Fed Cuts).

And the ‘extremest greed’ since the peak in 2017…

Source: CNN

With the S&P 500 trading at its richest to its 200-day moving average since the peak in Jan 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

And in case you wondered why… it’s the fun-durr-mentals, stupid!!

Source: Bloomberg

And as central bank liquidity has soared, volatility across every asset class has been clubbed like baby seal…

Source: Bloomberg

You have meddled with the primary forces of nature, Mr [Powell], and I won’t have it! Is that clear?

…There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no Third Worlds. There is no West. There is only one holistic system of systems. One vast and immane, interwoven, interacting, multi-varied, multi-national dominion of dollars. Petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multi-dollars, reichmarks, rands, rubles, pounds and shekels…

All necessities provided. All anxieties tranquilized. All boredom amused.

Ok, having got that off our chest, let’s look at the week in ‘markets’…

Chinese markets experienced all their exuberance on the first two days of the week…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were more mixed with Germany lagging (managing to get green today after the ridiculous ramp) and Italy leading with a big gain…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets were all exuberantly higher this week led by Nasdaq and Small Caps…

While the week was celebrated as being bullish as all heck, we note that Defensive stocks dominated (and every day saw post-open selling in cyclicals)…

Source: Bloomberg

And while the early week was driven by yet more short-squeezes, the machines seemed to run out of ammo today…

Source: Bloomberg

And this has all happened amid a record $167 billion in equity outflows in 2019…

Apple share hit a new all-time high, lifting the broad equity markets with its vast size. Apple has now added over hgalf a trillion in market in 2019 alone… as Fwd EPS expectations slump… WTF!

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, while bank stocks were higher on the week, they underperformed the broad market and decoupled from the steepening yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was monkeyhammered into the open but came back during the day

Does this look like normal price action to you?

Source: Bloomberg

Also, as we noted earlier in the day, the opening panic bid was created by extreme gamma driving the Dec S&P futs contract into its expiration at the open…

Source: Bloomberg

HYG notably decoupled from stocks today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were unchanged today but higher across the curve on the week with the short-end dramatically outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

But, the daily pattern of Asia buying, Europe selling, US (post-EU) buying continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Sending the yield curve up to the highs from early November, and notably rolling over…

Source: Bloomberg

After two down weeks, the dollar rallied back to pre-trade-deal levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable tumbled this week – post-election – suffering its biggest weekly loss since Oct 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

While US equities surged this week (along with the USD and bond yields), yuan was dead, seemingly glued to 7.00…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had another highly volatile week with only Bitcoin managing (barely) to get back to even after the early week collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver was the week’s biggest gainer (unusually) as crude tumbled on the day to lose the the crown…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver is back above $17 and back at pre-Thanksgiving slump levels…

 

The dramatic silver outperformance sent it back to its strongest vs gold in December…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude tumbled today, back to the top of its recent uptrend channel…

Finally, yeah we know we’re whining but still… this happened in 2019…the S&P 500 is up almost 29% while earnings expectations are down almost 5%

Source: Bloomberg

No really, it’s not about fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

Four straight weeks higher for the S&P 500… Dear Bulls, thank The Fed…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Final Q3 GDP comes in unchanged with all of the growth coming from consumer spending

(zerohedge)

Final Q3 GDP Revision Unchanged At 2.1%: All Growth Comes From US Consumer Spending

The final revision of Q3 GDP came in as expected, at 2.1%, and unchanged from the second revision, rising fractionally from the 2.0% in Q2.

While overall GDP growth was unrevised from the second estimate, upward revisions to consumer spending and business investment were offset by a downward revision to inventory investment. Some more details:

  • Personal Consumption was came in at 3.2% annualized, above the 2.9% in the prior revision and above the 2.9% expected if below the 4.6% in Q2, and contributed 2.12% of the bottom line GDP print of 2.1%, indicating the consumer was once again the major driving force behind GDP.
  • Fixed Investment was revised modestly lower, from -0.18% to a -0.14% detraction from GDP – the first consecutive drop in investment since 2009.
    • Nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property fell 2.3% in 3Q after falling 1% prior quarter

  • Private inventories were unexpectedly revised back into negative territory, subtracting -0.03% from GDP, after adding 0.17% in the prior revision.
  • Net trade shrank modestly, from -0.11% to -0.15%.
  • Government spending rose fractionally, up from 0.28% to 0.30%.

Visually:

As has been the case in recent quarters, personal consumption has been the sole driver of US economic growth.

While the economy grew just as expected, inflation remained subdued, with the GDP price index rising 1.8% in 3Q after rising 2.4% prior quarter, and in line with the 1.8% expected. Meanwhile, Core PCE rose 2.1% in 3Q, unchanged from the prior revision, after rising 1.9% prior quarter;

Finally, corporate profit growth ground to a halt in Q3, declining at a 0.2% quarterly rate in the third quarter, revised from a 0.2% increase, after rising 3.8% in the second quarter:

  • Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased 0.5% after increasing 3.2%.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 1.1% after increasing 0.6% .
  • Profits from the rest of the world increased 102% after increasing 7.7% .

end
Trump will like this: USA personal incomes and spending are growing at the fastest pace in 2019
(zerohedge)

US Personal Incomes Grow At Fastest Pace Of 2019, Spending Picks Up

After a surprise slowdown in October, analysts were hopeful of a rebound in incomes and spending of Americans in November and they got just that.

  • US Personal Incomes rose 0.5% MoM (dramatically better than the 0.0% in October – revised up to +0.1% – and expectations of a 0.3% rise)
  • US Personal Spending rose 0.4% MoM (printing as expected and accelerating from October’s +0.3%)

Source: Bloomberg

On a year-over-year basis, both incomes and spending re-accelerated but it was incomes that outperformed – up 4.9% YoY, the highest since Dec 2018

Source: Bloomberg

The specifics show private workers doing best:

  • Private worker wages up 5.7% Y/Y
  • Government worker wages up 3.4% Y/Y

The income over spending gap means that savings rose in November (personal savings rate rose from 7.8% to 7.9%)…

Finally, we note that The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – the PCE Deflator – remains well below the ‘mandated’ 2.0% level…

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Powell?

end

Kansas City Biz Survey crashes to a 4 year low

(zerohedge)

Kansas City Fed Biz Survey Crashes Near 4-Year Low

Despite a pickup in PMIs – that appears to be heralded as ‘proving’ the trough is in – Kansas City Fed’s business survey has plunged to its lowest since Feb 2016 (confirming the weakness also seen in the Philly Fed).

Kansas Fed Survey fell to -8 from -3…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the sixth consecutive negative (contraction) monthly print for the index and under the hood, it’s a $hit$how…

  • Prices paid for raw materials rises to 16 vs 14 prior month
  • Volume of new orders falls to -16 vs -3
  • New orders for exports falls to -11 vs -6
  • Production falls to -7 vs -5
  • Number of employees falls to -10 vs -9
  • Average employee workweek falls to -7
  • Shipments falls to -6 vs 7
  • Composite six-month outlook falls to 10 vs 15

So everything fell (apart from costs which rose)?!

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The demise of bricks and mortar operations in the USA: 9300 stores closed in 2019

(Phillips/Epoch Times)

Retailpocalypse – A Record 9,300 Stores Closed Across US In 2019

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

A report found that more than 9,300 stores have closed or are closing across the United States in 2019, including locations operated by Payless, Gymboree, Fred’s, Walgreens, Family Dollar, and many more.

According to a report (pdf) by Coresight Research, which released its year-end report on the closing stores, 5,844 stores closed in 2018. In 2019, 9,302 stores were reported to have been shut down or were going to be shut down, which is a 59 percent increase over 2018.

Payless ShoeSource shut down 2,100 stores, Fred’s shut down 564, Ascena Retail shut down 781, Gymboree shut down 740, Sears closed down 210, and Charlotte Russe shut down 512. Twelve businesses had at least 200 locations shut down in 2019, the research organization said.

Gamestop, Gap, Foot Locker, Walgreens, Destination Maternity, GNC, Bed Bad & Beyond, Victoria’s Secret, CVS, Big Lots, Office Depot, Pier 1 Imports, Rent-a-Center, and Abercrombie & Fitch all saw dozens of their stores close, the report noted.

At the same time, 4,392 new stores opened across the United States, said Coresight.

Dollar General opened up nearly 1,000, Dollar Tree opened 348, Family Dollar opened 202, Aldi opened 159, and a number of other aforementioned brands that shuttered stores also opened new locations, according to the report.

“Despite a very favorable consumer spending environment, department stores have yet to catch a break,” analyst Christinia Boni said in a research report, according to CNN, which noted that online sales are poised to increase even further.

Last month, Toys “R” Us marked its return to the United States on Wednesday by opening its first store at a location in New Jersey. The firm filed for bankruptcy in 2017 and shut down 700 stores.

“We wanted to make sure that everywhere you turned in the store there was interactivity,” said Richard Barry, president and CEO of Tru Kids, the parent company of the firm, CNBC reported.

He added, “We have an amazing number of digital experiences throughout the store, but we also have good old analog [experiences]. … Take the products out of the boxes and kids will be able to get their hands on them.”

Sears Update

Outside of a Sears department store one day after it closed as part of multiple store closures by Sears Holdings Corp in the United States in Nanuet, N.Y. on Jan. 7, 2019. (Mike Segar/Reuters)

The company that owns Sears and Kmart will lay off hundreds of corporate employees, according to a report last month, coming after the firm announced it would close 96 stores.

Transformco confirmed the layoffs to Business Insider the Sears layoffs after reports emerged.

“Since purchasing substantially all the assets of Sears Holdings Corporation in February 2019, Transformco has faced a difficult retail environment,” the statement said.

It added, “We have been working hard to position Transformco for success by focusing on our competitive strengths and pruning operations that have struggled due to increased competition and other factors. Unfortunately, this process resulted in a number of difficult but necessary decisions, including closing stores and making adjustments at our corporate headquarters and field positions to reflect our new structure. We regret the impact that this has on our associates and their families.”

*  *  *

Media outlets in America are dividing our nation by pushing false narratives and spinning the facts. Honest news, without hidden agendas or corporate control, is now more crucial than ever. Our operating revenue is generated mostly from subscriptions. When you subscribe, you’re supporting our Mission of Upholding Independent, Honest and Traditional Journalism. Thank you for your support and we look forward to welcoming you to the Epoch Community.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Pelosi refuses to answer any questions on impeachment

(zerohedge)

“I’m Not Going To Go There Anymore” – Pelosi Refuses To Answer Any More Media Questions On Impeachment

Less than 24 hours after her ‘victorious‘ impeachment of only the 3rd president in the nation’s history, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is done talking about it.

During her weekly press conference this morning, as The Daily Caller so eloquently noted, Pelosi went full ‘Ferris Bueller’ when the media refused to ask her any questions other than about the impeachment process…

Anybody want to talk about the Mexico trade agreement? Anybody care about that?” she posed.

“Jobs for the American people? Progress in addressing globalism and the issues?”

“Anybody want to talk about the salt tax we’re passing today?” Pelosi continued.

“Important issues that relate to the economic vitality of our community?”

Any other questions? Because I’m not going to answer anymore questions on this.”

“I’m not going to go there anymore.”

“Bueller? Bueller?”

Finally, we wonder why she did not use her now-infamous death-stare to silence the frightfully deplorable press corps – just as she did last night with cheering Democrats…

Justin🇺🇸@83Justintime

sad individual is …why do they seem so happy? (can hear clapping in the background)…shouldn’t it be a somber moment in a time when a US🇺🇸 president is …this looks more like…

Embedded video

See Justin🇺🇸‘s other Tweets

But don’t forget, it’s not political… it’s for the children and the constitution and democracy.

end

A very important read by Sharryl Attkisson as she outlines how one warrant surveilling one American can then be used to spy on thousands more

(Sharryl Atktisson)

How The FBI (Or Congress) Can Use Warrant Surveilling One American To Spy On Many More

Authored by Sharyl Attkisson Via sharylattkisson.com

If you’ve watched the current impeachment proceedings with something beyond a passing interest, you might have heard the controversy over Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) secretly obtaining and then releasing phone records of political rival Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) and journalist John Solomon.

Critics say such an alleged invasion of citizens’ privacy and rights for political purposes is beyond the pale.

But Democrats argue that Schiff didn’t really target Nunes or Solomon in his information dragnet. He says their calls were merely picked up incidentally because they spoke to two people who are targets: the president’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani or Lev Parnas, a figure charged with violating campaign finance violations.

However, Schiff’s controversial release of information naming Nunes and Solomon provides a window into how the FBI secretly operates to obtain information on Americans for whom they have no explicit permission to wiretap or monitor.

Believe it or now, intelligence agencies can use one legal wiretap to monitor as many as 25,000 people for which there was no wiretap justification.

The following is an excerpt from my reporting on Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson that explains this phenomenon.

Through a single warrant, government agents can capture phone calls, texts, emails and bank records from people “two hops” away. That means all of the suspected spy’s direct contacts— “one hop” —and everybody who contacts those people or even visits their Facebook pages or websites—two hops.

In this way, one analysis found intel agencies can use one legal wiretap to access to 25,000 people’s phones. Consider at least a half dozen Trump officials were caught in the FBI surveillance dragnet, according to news reports: campaign chair Manafort, multiple “transition officials” including Lt. General Michael Flynn and Jared Kushner, and adviser Carter Page— who was wiretapped over and over though never charged with anything.

Sidney Powell (former prosecutor and Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn’s attorney): And what most people don’t understand is, they don’t just get everything they want against Carter Page, they get everything they want against every person who communicated with Carter Page, and against every person who communicated with that person. So it goes out what’s called two hops.

Sharyl: And that would allow them to find intelligence from someone nowhere near the original center that they went to the FISA Court about?

Sidney Powell: Exactly. They could have all kinds of banking records and personal information on tens of thousands of people by virtue of those FISA applications.

Sharyl: —including Trump who was known to be one or two hops away from surveilled targets.

On top of that, at least four key anti-Trump figures have admitted in testimony and interviews accessing sensitive, protected intelligence of US citizens—including Trump associates—under the Obama administration. All say they were guarding national security, had no political motives, and didn’t leak the information. As the 2016 campaign peaked, Obama official Samantha Power’s name was on hundreds of attempts to reveal the identities of Americans caught up in secretly-gathered intelligence. Obama adviser Susan Rice also took part. And Obama officials Sally Yates and James Clapper admit having reviewed intel gathered on US political figures.

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) : Did either of you ever review classified documents in which Mr. Trump, his associates or members of Congress had been unmasked?

Clapper: Well, yes.

Sharyl: Do you think Democrats and Republicans alike have, in your view, abdicated responsibility when it comes to oversight of our intelligence community?

Liz Hempowicz: Yeah, yeah, I think so. I don’t think this is a problem with one party.

Liz Hempowicz is director of public policy at the watchdog Project on Government Oversight. She blames Congress for doing a poor job watching over the work of the government’s spies.

Liz Hempowicz: I think as a body, Congress has kind of been very comfortable giving the intelligence community a wide deference, and I don’t think the intelligence community has earned that.

Sharyl: In short, why do you think it is that Congress, members of both parties, wouldn’t be taking a harder look at the alleged surveillance abuses?

Liz Hempowicz: Well I think it’s a difficult issue to conduct oversight over, and I think once you get pushback from the intelligence communities and they wave around words like “national security” and “security threat,” I think it becomes a more difficult area for members of Congress to kind of use some of their political capital.

Hempowicz adds that alleged surveillance abuses aren’t new. Long before the Trump era, with special counsel Mueller heading up the FBI, US political figures were swept up in wiretaps, the contents improperly leaked to the media California Congresswoman Jane Harman in 2009and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich in 2011.

In 2013, Director of National Intelligence Clapper denied mass spying on Americans.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Oregon): Does the NSA collect any type of data at all on millions or hundreds of millions of Americans?

Clapper: No sir.

But when NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed the opposite, Clapper apologized and said he’d been confused by the question. In 2014, the CIA got caught spying on Senate staffers, though CIA Director John Brennan had explicitly denied it. He—too— then apologized.

And the government has spied on journalists: James Rosen, then of Fox News—now with Sinclair, The Associated Press, and, as I allege in a federal lawsuit, on my work as an investigative correspondent at CBS News.

Finally, in 2016, there was a striking election year uptick in government agents combing through a sensitive NSA database of intel on innocent US citizens.

In 2013, there were 9,500 searches involving 198 Americans. By 2016, that number escalated to 30,355 searches of 5,288 Americans.

Which brings us back to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court or FISA admonishment in October 2016. Judge Collyer also slammed the FBI for a major violation: giving raw intelligence about Americans to unnamed third party contractors.

Sharyl: And the names of these three contractors are blacked out?

Sidney Powell: They’re blacked out. You cannot tell from the decision who they are. But the American people need to be jumping up and down, demanding to know the answers to that.

Sharyl: Because it would tell us what?

Sidney Powell: Well it’s going to tell us who was given special privileges by James Comey to go in and get all this information. It will tell us who’s behind the unmaskings.

The court said the FBI’s failures had been “the focus of concerns since 2014.” All of that contradicts assurances from FBI Director Comey “Nobody gets to see FISA information of any kind unless they’ve had the appropriate training and have the appropriate oversight.”

Former FBI Director Comey’s successor Christopher Wray has made similar claims.

Wray: No evidence of any kind of abuse.

In the end, Powell argues that neither the FBI nor Special Counsel Mueller— as ex-FBI Director —can fairly investigate matters that intersect with allegations about their own agencies and colleagues.

Sharyl: Assuming for the sake of argument that what you say is correct, I think people might say, “But maybe there was no premise for the Russia investigation. But so many people surrounding Trump, and so many people who’ve been looked at have either pled guilty or been found to have done something else in the past. Doesn’t that validify the investigation that was done?”

Sidney Powell: Absolutely not. Not unless we’re going to revert to the practice of Russia itself, and the KGB agent who said, “Find me the man and I’ll find the crime to pin on him.”

Hempowicz has a slightly different take— that Mueller’s probe is important and so far has proven fair. But she agrees that someone should also be unraveling any surveillance abuses.

Sharyl: How would you describe, in a nutshell, why this is important?

Liz Hempowicz: I don’t think the intelligence community has accurately shown that there are benefits of this pervasive surveillance of American citizens. I just haven’t seen them kind of show their work like a fourth grader would have to do in math to prove that they’ve gotten the right answer.

After issuing her blistering comments in 2016, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge required the Justice Department to devise new rules to better protect Americans’ privacy rights. The court approved a proposal made by the Trump Justice Department in March 2017.

Watch the full Full Measure report by clicking the link below:

http://fullmeasure.news/news/politics/russia-probe-02-11-2019

Support Attkisson v. DOJ and FBI

end

Durham is seeking Brennan’s emails and call logs over the Russian probe. He wants his private emails which no doubt will contradict his public testimony to Congress et al

(zerohedge)

Durham Reportedly Seeking Ex-CIA Director Brennan’s Emails, Call Logs Over Russian Probe

Attorney General William Barr told “The Story with Martha MacCallum” that by the time Trump was inaugurated in January 2017, it had become clear that allegations raised by the FBI against a former Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos were largely baseless, and that pursuing George Papadopoulos’ “had very little probative value.”

The Dirty Truth “Josh“@AKA_RealDirty

John Durham is moving very diligently in his investigation but AG Barr is not involved in it. Some people was expecting it to come out just a couple weeks after the Horowitz report. With just his general knowledge it could be a few months.

Embedded video

The Dirty Truth “Josh“@AKA_RealDirty

John Durham isn’t just looking at the FBI. He’s looking at other agencies, departments, and private actors. The other agents is cooperating very well.

Embedded video

Additionally, Barr admitted, in a very candid (for him) moment, that federal prosecutor John Durham (who is scrutinizing the Russia investigation) “isn’t just looking at the FBI, he’s looking at other agencies, departments, and private actors,” but  that the other agencies are cooperating very well.”

Which is all the more intriguing as, at the same time as his interview aired, The New York Times dropped a bombshell, reporting that, according to three people briefed on the inquiry, Durham’s investigation has begun examining the role of the former C.I.A. director John O. Brennan in how the intelligence community assessed Russia’s 2016 election interference.

Specifically, Durham has requested Brennan’s emails, call logs, and other documents from the C.I.A. (and judging by Barr’s statement that “other agencies are cooperating very well,” we suspect Durham will get what he wants.

Additionally, NYT reports that Durham is also examining whether Mr. Brennan privately contradicted his public comments, including May 2017 testimony to Congress, about both the dossier and about any debate among the intelligence agencies over their conclusions on Russia’s interference.

Of course, NYT is quick to ‘warn’ readers that Durham’s decision to probe Brennan’s actions deeper will “add to accusations that Mr. Trump is using the Justice Department to go after his perceived enemies.” But we ask, just as with Ukraine and the Bidens, is it only ‘not allowed’ to root out corruption if the corrupt is a representative of ‘the other’?

We will let AG Barr respond to that implied problem:

“The president bore the burden of probably one of the greatest conspiracy theories – baseless conspiracy theories – in American political history.”

 

Noting that he has long expressed skepticism that the F.B.I. had enough information to begin its inquiry in 2016, publicly criticizing IG Horowitz’s report released last week that affirmed that the bureau did.

Finally, while Brennan, Clapper, and Comey have rushed to their friends in the liberal media (and their social media echo chambers) to frame their own narratives as to just how much blame, bias, and bad behavior they each undertook…

We suspect that if Durham cracks Brennan, he will take everyone else down with him. Maybe Nancy will hand the impeachment articles over at that moment… as a distraction from the real threat to America’s democracy, constitution, and common man.

END

If the House does not send the articles of impeachment to the Senate then Trump was not impeached at all.  This is according to Noah Feldman and Jonathan Turley

(zerohedge)

House-Senate Impeachment Impasse Would Mean Trump Wasn’t Impeached At All: Harvard Law Prof

While Nancy Pelosi threatens to withhold articles of impeachment passed Wednesday night by the House, Harvard Law Professor Noah Feldmansays that President Trump isn’t technically impeached until the House actually transmits the articles to the Senate.

Feldman, who testified in front of the House Judiciary Committee’s impeachment proceedings earlier this month, argues in a Bloomberg Op-Ed that the framers’ definition of impeachment “assumed that impeachment was a process, not just a House vote,” and that “Strictly speaking, “impeachment” occurred – and occurs — when the articles of impeachment are presented to the Senate for trial. And at that point, the Senate is obliged by the Constitution to hold a trial.”

If the House does not communicate its impeachment to the Senate, it hasn’t actually impeached the president. If the articles are not transmitted, Trump could legitimately say that he wasn’t truly impeached at all.

That’s because “impeachment” under the Constitution means the House sending its approved articles of to the Senate, with House managers standing up in the Senate and saying the president is impeached.

As for the headlines we saw after the House vote saying, “TRUMP IMPEACHED,” those are a media shorthand, not a technically correct legal statement. So far, the House has voted to impeach (future tense) Trump. He isn’t impeached (past tense) until the articles go to the Senate and the House members deliver the message. -Noah Feldman

 

Pelosi, meanwhile, won’t transmit the articles until the Senate holds what she considers a “fair” trial.

Roughly modeled after England’s impeachment procedures, the framers in Article I of the constitution gave the House “the sole power of impeachment,” while giving the Senate “the sole power to try all impeachments.”

Article II outlines says the president “shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”

There’s more:

But we can say with some confidence that only the Senate is empowered to judge the fairness of its own trial – that’s what the “sole power to try all impeachments” means.

If the House votes to “impeach” but doesn’t send the articles to the Senate or send impeachment managers there to carry its message, it hasn’t directly violated the text of the Constitution. But the House would be acting against the implicit logic of the Constitution’s description of impeachment.

A president who has been genuinely impeached must constitutionally have the opportunity to defend himself before the Senate. That’s built into the constitutional logic of impeachment, which demands a trial before removal.

To be sure, if the House just never sends its articles of impeachment to the Senate, there can be no trial there. That’s what the “sole power to impeach” means.

In closing, Feldman says “if the House never sends the articles, then Trump could say with strong justification that he was never actually impeached,” adding “And that’s probably not the message Congressional Democrats are hoping to send.”

END

This is a good article by Luongo as he states that the hi-jacking of Congress of this phony impeachment will create open warfare on our other branches ..and there will be casualties and possibly civil war…

(courtesy Luongo)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Washington Post, CNN journos under fire after Trump impeachment for celebrating ‘Impeachmas’

“Merry Impeachmas from the WaPo team!” WaPo Congress reporter and CNN political analyst Rachael Bade remarked in the post, in which she was seen with colleagues… Bade deleted the tweet roughly an hour after it was posted… the tweet sparked a firestorm of criticism on social media…

https://www.foxnews.com/media/washington-post-reporters-merry-impeachmas

 

Schiff is now trying to arouse support to impeach Pence, possibly making Pelosi president.

 

Schiff says Pence’s office may have purposefully misled panel about contents of his Zelensky call

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/schiff-says-pences-office-may-have-purposefully-misled-panel-about-contents-his-zelensky-call/2019/12/17/aaea3526-20fd-11ea-86f3-3b5019d451db_story.html

McConnell rips Pelosi for impeachment delay, says Dems ‘afraid’ to transmit ‘shoddy’ articles

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., was even more fiery, alleging on Twitter, “If House Dems refuse to send Articles of Impeachment to the Senate for trial it would be a breathtaking violation of the Constitution, an act of political cowardice, and fundamentally unfair to President @realdonaldTrump.”… In his remarks, McConnell said that the Senate’s duty is to rise to the occasion on matters as grave as impeachment and to give the nation some stability…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mcconnell-rips-pelosi-for-impeachment-delay-says-dems-afraid-to-transmit-shoddy-articles

 

Sen. @LindseyGrahamSC: Whether you agree with impeachment or not, Trump Derangement Syndrome has reached a new level.  House Democrats refusing to send the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate because they don’t like the way we may do the trial – that is just scary.

 

Sen. Lindsey Graham: ‘Pelosi Would Lose Her Job if She Did Not Move Toward Impeachment

The mob took over the House, the mob is running the Democratic Partyif she did not impeach this President, she would not be Speaker…Their goal to destroy the President is going to blow up in their face.”…  https://hannity.com/media-room/graham-on-hannity-pelosi-would-lose-her-job-if-she-did-not-move-toward-impeachment/

 

@ByronYork: Pelosi says she won’t choose impeachment managers or send them to Senate until Senate agrees on trial rules: ‘When we see what they have, we’ll know who and how many to send over.’

 

Mitch McConnell said the rules will be set after the Articles of Impeachment arrive at the Senate.

 

Dershowitz: Pelosi’s Proposal to Withhold Senate Trial Is Unconstitutional

He would withhold the trial until the Senate agreed to change its rules, or presumably until a new election put many more Democrats in the Senate…

https://www.newsmax.com/alandershowitz/hamilton-pelosi-tribe-senate/2019/12/19/id/946659/

Pelosi called McConnell “a rogue leader”.  Pelosi appears to be operating under the delusion that the Senate leader reports to her and must accede to her wishes.

 

@SharylAttkisson: Whoa, Pelosi just said she wants no more questions on impeachment. Directing press to talk about other D accomplishments (and they are, so far, complying) [Part of presser at link]

https://twitter.com/lawyer4laws/status/1207711163796115456

 

House Majority Whip James Clyburn on Trump: “Let’s give him a fair trial, and hang him.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1207711187150032898

 

ex-NSC COS @FredFleitz: Article I, Section 2, Clause 5 of the Constitution says “The House of Representatives shall choose their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.”  Article I, Section 3, Clause 6 says “The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments.”  The House has exercised its impeachment power. There’s no provision in the Constitution on the House officially informing the Senate or naming House impeachment “managers” in a Senate trial. The Senate can act on the House impeachment articles immediately.

 

@realDonaldTrump: So after the Democrats gave me no Due Process in the House, no lawyers, no witnesses, no nothing, they now want to tell the Senate how to run their trial. Actually, they have zero proof of anything, they will never even show up. They want out. I want an immediate trial!

 

Republican Party sets fundraising record amid impeachment battle

Hauling in a whopping $20.6 million in November… [$5m on day of impeachment]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-party-sets-fundraising-record-amid-impeachment-battle

 

AG Barr Says Durham Is ‘Looking At’ Activities of ‘Private Actors,’ Agencies Beyond FBI

“He’s not just looking at the FBI,” Barr said of Durham. “He’s looking at other agencies … and also private actors, so it’s a much broader investigation.”… [Fusion GPS?  Media outlets?  Crowdstrike?]

https://dailycaller.com/2019/12/18/ag-barr-john-durham-private-actors/

 

Former NSA Tech Chief Says Mueller Report Was Based On CIA-Fabricated “Evidence”

There are at least five items that we’ve found that were produced by Guccifer 2.0 back on June 15th, where they had the Russian fingerprints in them, suggesting the Russians made the hack. Well, we found the same five items published by Wikileaks in the Podesta emails. Those items do not have the Russian fingerprints, which directly implies that Guccifer 2.0 was inserting these into the files to make it look like the Russians did this hack…

All the evidence we’re accumulating clearly says and implies, the US government — namely the FBI, CIA, the DOJ, and of course State Department — all these people involved in this hack, bought a dossier and all of the information going forward to the FISA court.  All of them knew that this was a fake from the very beginning, because this Guccifer 2.0 character was fabricating it…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/former-nsa-tech-chief-says-mueller-report-was-based-cia-fabricated-evidence

 

GOP @RepMattGaetz: Why has the FISA Court not issued an “Order to Show Cause” as to why @Comey and others who signed misleading applications should not be held in CONTEMPT?!

 

FISA Court judges involved, including Supreme Court Chief Justice Roberts, should be questioned.

 

Can John Roberts Preside over Senate Trial after Appointing FISA Judges? 

Is Roberts Compromised?  Appointed every judge on the FISA Court…Roberts… reportedly investigated at one time for illegally adopting his sons… Evidence shows that John Roberts, chief justice of the United States Supreme Court, was “hacked” by a Deep State surveillance operation overseen by Obama administration CIA director John Brennan and Obama director of national intelligence James Clapperhttps://nationalfile.com/conflict-can-john-roberts-preside-over-senate-trial-after-appointing-fisa-judges/

 

NYT: Durham Is Scrutinizing Ex-C.I.A. Director’s Role in Russian Interference Findings

The federal prosecutor… is examining testimony by the former C.I.A. director John Brennan and seeking his communications records.  Durham is also examining whether Mr. Brennan privately contradicted his public comments, including May 2017 testimony to Congressabout both the dossier and about any debate among the intelligence agencies over their conclusionson Russia’s interference, the people said… https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/19/us/politics/durham-john-brennan-cia.html

 

‘He’s not a healthy guy’: Obama’s former physician says Joe Biden is at risk of a stroke after 77-year-old released doctor’s letter claiming he is ‘fit to be president’ – Biden had a brush with death in 1988, requiring surgery to repair two brain aneurysms… [Why is BHO’s doc undermining Joe now?]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7810661/Obamas-former-physician-says-Joe-Biden-not-healthy-guy.html

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of uSAWatchdog

(Greg Hunter)

Impeachment War on USA, Dems Take Guns,

By Greg Hunter On December 20, 2019

The Dems have done what they have been threatening to do since the hour President Trump was sworn into office– they impeached him. Never mind there was no crime committed or outlined by the Dems. Never mind how unfair the process was. Never mind the so-called whistleblower was never officially identified of even testified. This goes to show you how lawless the Democrats are, and they will void your Constitutional rights just like they did to President Trump to take you down. This Democrat impeachment scam was not just an attack on Trump, it was an attack on “We the People,” and Trump is just in the way.

Rudy Giuliani says, “Impeachment is part of the Dem cover-up. Extortion, bribery and money laundering goes beyond Biden’s. Also, DNC collusion w/Ukraine to destroy candidate Trump.” Trouble is just getting started, and former top federal prosecutor Rudy Giuliani, and personal lawyer for President Trump, says he is going to reveal much more in the coming weeks and months.

The stock market is hitting one new high after another lately. Does that mean the economy is doing well or are they propping it up by injecting trillions into the big banks?

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

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