DEC23//GOLD UP $7.75 TO $1485.15//SILVER UP 27 CENTS TO $17.43//ANOTHER STRONG GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND JANUARY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND//ANDREW MAGUIRE AND CRAIG HEMKE INTERVIEW IS A MUST AUDIO PODCAST//SOFT BANK DID NOT GET ITS FINANCING RE: WE WORK, AS JAPANESE BANKS ARE SCRAMBLING//MORE ON SKRYM VS POZSAR ON THE DEC 31 REPO PROBLEMS// LOTS OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1485.15 UP $7.75    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.43 UP 26 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1485.14

 

silver:  $17.43

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 6/10

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,474.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/20/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/24/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 6
737 C ADVANTAGE 6 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 4 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 10 10
MONTH TO DATE: 14,049

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 1000 OZ (0.0311 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  14,049 NOTICES FOR 1,404,900 OZ  (43.698 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

191 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 955,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3990 for 19,950,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7552 UP 57 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7409 DOWN 109

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2021 CONTRACTS FROM 208,956 UP TO 2110,977 WITH THE 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  2856 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2856 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2856 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2856 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 24.94 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.935   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 7 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED  4877 CONTRACTS. OR 24.39 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER. AND THAT IS PROBABLY THE REASON FOR THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI.WE SHOULD SEE THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION PHASE BEGIN DURING THIS COMING WEEK.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

27,784 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 27,784 CONTRACTS) OR 138.92 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1543 CONTRACTS OR 7.717 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  138.92 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 19.84% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,214.20   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY. THE CONTRACTION PHASE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEK.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2021, WITH THE 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2856 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 4877 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2856 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2021 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 7 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.17 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.055 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 191 NOTICE(S) FOR 955,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.935 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 1,835 CONTRACTS, TO 726,533 AND MOVING AWAY FROM  OUR  NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 728,365 (SET DEC 20/2019).

THE FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH A  $3.15 PRICING LOSS ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2155 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  2155 CONTRACTS APRIL: 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 726,533,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 320 CONTRACTS: 1,815 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 2155 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 320 CONTRACTS OR 32,000 OZ OR 0.9953 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $3.15 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 0.9953  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $3.15) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR GOOD GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (0.9953 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 124,480 CONTRACTS OR 12,448,000 oz OR 387.18 TONNES (18 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6915 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 387.18 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 387.18/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     6,113.29  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1,935 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($3.15)) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2155 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 2155 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 840 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

2155 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1,835 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 0.9953 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.15 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD $7.75 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD.

DEC 23/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 885.93 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

THIS MAKES NO SENSE WHATSOEVER:

 

 

WITH SILVER 26 CENTS TODAY

A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OF 1.028 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

DEC 18/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2021 CONTRACTS from 208,956 UP TO 210,977 AND CLOSER TO A NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 1/2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1305

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  2856  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2856 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2021  CONTRACTS TO THE 2856 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4977 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 24.39 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.935 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 7 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 2856 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.19 POINTS OR 1.40%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 35.06 POINTS OR 0.13%   /The Nikkei closed UP 4.48 POINTS OR 0.02%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .43%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 67.0126 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0126 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0079 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Soft Bank/WeWork

It looks like the huge 9.5 billion dollar rescue of WeWork has collapsed.  Three banks that were to loan to Soft Bank just got cold feet

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

i)HONG KONG/CHINA
Not good:  Hong Kong police arrest 4 alleged financiers of the protest movement
(zerohedge)

ii)Saturday:  Hong Kong riot police clash with protesters following a rally for oppressed Muslims(zerohedge)

iii)China

China is desperate to contain costs as they now lower tariffs on pork, tech and many global imports

(zerohedge)

iv)CHINA

China faces a huge systemic risk form a debt cross default chain reaction and this was stated by a top Central bank advisor.

(zeorhedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)An excellent paper from Alasdair Macleod talking upon the genius of Domenic Cummings who has basically put the plan in place for this Brexit.

a must read..

(Alasdair Macleod)

ii)UK/USA

Boris Johnson’s victory will no doubt pave the way for better relations and a better trade deals with the USA once Britain removes the shackles from the EU
(Gatestone)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SAUDI ARABIA

5 patsies who probably had nothing to do with the Khashoggi murder will be sentenced to death for that murder..royal aids go free..

(zerohedge)

2)Turkey/Libya

As promised, Turkey’s incursion into the Mediterranean has having consequences.  Hafter seizes a Turish vessel but it was released.  Erdogan promises a deepened military role in Liya
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

The uSA is losing its hegemony power as Europe shuns the uSA over the Nord Stream 2 project

(Tom Luongo)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Your most important interview to be heard and I urge everyone to take time and listen to the entire podcast.  Andrew describes the furious battle enraging between physical and paper gold and the banks are just running out of the pure stuff…a lot more goodies in this one and it is everything that I have been telling you.

(Andrew Maguire/Craig Hemke)

ii)There is now another criminal probe into precious metals trading in Singapore..a solid gold hub.  Two individuals have now departed the company. JPMorgan has now only 12 precious metals traders

(Reuters)

iii)Macleod talks about a powerful”whale” hiding as longs inside the Comex gold futures

(Kingworldnews/GATA)

iv)The repo money is going straight to the stock market.no question about it.  Pam and Russ discuss the winners and losers on the repo binge

(Pam and Russ Martens//Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

v)Russia adds another 9.333 tonnes to its official reserves. All of this increased came from their owned production

(Lawrie Williams)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Durable goods orders unexpectedly plunged in November and most of this is due to Boeing

(zerohedge)

b)USA new home sales disappoint

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Amazing: Mnuchin explains the hoarding of 100 dollar bills and precious metals.

(zerohedge)

b)A good one..the true state of affairs with respect to the USA budgetary deficits for 2020 and 2021

it is a doomsday machine on steroids.
(courtesy David Stockman

c)We have two more trading days before the turn into the new year. The repo money continues to be underscribed which either means that the banks do not need the money or their balance sheet is full and there is no room for added repos.  Pozsar troubles down saying that year end balance sheet re adjustments may cause huge problems.  Let us see how this will play out.(zerohedge)

d)The CEO of Boeing fired..

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)What a doorknob: Adam Schiff has no sympathy for FBI victim and CIA asset Carter page for the spying orchestrated by the Dems

(zerohedge)

ii)Is Mifsud, the “genesis” of the Russiagate hoax alive or dead?

my money..he is hiding for his life

(Sara Carter)

iii) Lindsay Graham speaks on the sham impeachment.

(zerohedge)

iv)

This will probably kill Joe Biden’s attempt for the Presidency;:  Hunter Biden has been accused of a 156 million Ukraine money laundering scheme in this latest court filing. It also looks like he is involved in another case involving counterfeiting and money laundering.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1,835 CONTRACTS, DOWN TO 726,533 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 728,365 (SET DEC 20/2019) WITH THE LOSS OF $3.15 IN GOLD PRICING // FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2155 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 00 ; FEB: 2155  AND APRIL: 00  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2155 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 320 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2155 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 1,835 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $3.15). BUT THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED   320 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  320 CONTRACTS OR 32,000 OZ OR 0.9953 TONNES.  

 

 

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 511 open interest stand for a GAIN of 30 contracts.  We had 46 notices filed upon Friday so we GAINED ANOTHER STRONG 76 contracts or an additional 7,600 OZ will stand for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on the this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and well as negating a fiat bonus…queue jumping resumes with a vengeance.

 

we had: 10 notice(s) filed upon for 1000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI DECREASE by 25 contracts DOWN to 4390 which is UNBELIEVABLY  high for a January delivery month. Normally we see some rolling action as longs sell their January contracts and move to Feb.  This is not happening..longs are refusing to roll and are standing pat!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A LOSS  OF 2014 in contracts DOWN to 512,539.

THE PAPER HELD FOR JANUARY IS IN VERY STRONG HANDS AND THESE GUYS ARE REFUSING TO ROLL.  THIS IS ROUGHLY 13 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE A HUGE RECORD STANDING FOR A GENERALLY WEAK JANUARY DELIVERY MONTH.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2021 CONTRACTS FROM 208,956 UP TO 210,977(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 7 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/FRIDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a LOSS of 83 contracts DOWN to 4388. We had 83 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we GAINED 0  contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

After December, we have a LOSS in the next front month of January of 79 contracts to stand at 603.  The Feb non active month saw a LOSS of 18 contracts DOWN to 189.  March is a very active month and here we witness a GAIN of 1829 contracts UP to 165,308

COMPARE THE FRONT MONTH OF JANUARY IN GOLD TO SILVER’S FRONT JANUARY MONTH.  IN SILVER THE OI IS CONTRACTING AS THESE GUYS ARE ROLLING TO MARCH…BUT NOT GOLD.THE GOLD GUYS ARE TAKING ON THE COMEX.

 

We, today, had 191 notice(s) filed for 955,000, OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 155,492  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  144,517  contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 23/2019

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
29,138.451 oz
Int Delaware
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
10 notice(s)
 1000 OZ
(0.0311 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
501 contracts
(50100 oz)
1.5583 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
14,049 notices
1,404,900 OZ
43.698 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

 

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of HSBC:  7725.885 oz

ii) Out of Int Delaware: 21,412.566 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 29,138.451 oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 10 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14,049) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (511 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (10 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,455,000 OZ OR 45.256 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (14,049 x 100 oz)  + (511)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (10 x 100 oz )which equals 1,455,000 oz standing OR 45.256 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

 

We GAINED 76 contracts or an additional 7600 oz will stand at the comex as they REFUSED TO  morph into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 31.988 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.256 TONNES

 

total: 121.24 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 17.9576 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 121.24  tonnes

 

Thus:

121.24 tonnes of delivery –

18.2539 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 102.98 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 31.988 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,265,992.627 oz or  39.377 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,028,439.0 oz (31.988 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,028,439.0  (31.988 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,647,294.712 oz 268.78 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 23 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 620,240.700 oz

 

brinks

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
191
CONTRACT(S)
(955,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
197 contracts
 985,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3990 contracts

19,950,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into everybody else; 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.77% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/317.66 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  0  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks: 620,240.700 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 620,240.700  oz

We had 1 adjustment:

Out of Delaware 15,273.172 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware:

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  88.188 million

total dealer + customer silver:  316.839 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 191 contract(s) FOR 955,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3990 x 5,000 oz = 19,950,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (388) and the number of notices served upon today 191 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 3990 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (388)- number of notices served upon today (191) x 5000 oz equals 20,935,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand at the comex as they, refused to morphed into London based forwards. 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 191 notice(s) filed for 955,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  63.001 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,668 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,6682 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 338 million  OZ 48.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.91% ((DEC 23/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.27% to NAV (DEC 23/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.91%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.87 TRADING 14.34///DISCOUNT  3,57

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 23/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 885.93 tonnes

*IN LAST 731 TRADING DAYS: 51.32 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 631 TRADING DAYS: A NET 115.73 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

 

 

DEC 23:  SLV INVENTORY

363.830 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.95/ and libor 6 month duration 1.90

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.95%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.97

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Your most important interview to be heard and I urge everyone to take time and listen to the entire podcast.  Andrew describes the furious battle enraging between physical and paper gold and the banks are just running out of the pure stuff…a lot more goodies in this one and it is everything that I have been telling you.

(Andrew Maguire/Craig Hemke)

London metals trader Maguire, in TF Metals Report interview, describes furious battle between paper and physical gold

 Section: 

1:03p ET Sunday, December 22, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

London metals trader Andrew Maguire, interviewed this week by Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, makes some pointed observations about the furious battle in the gold market between sellers of paper and buyers of physical:

Bullion banks recently persuaded the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to enable the New York Commodities Exchange to triple the leverage the banks can use to control gold futures prices.

… 

Comex position limits are being exceeded by bullion banks with the exchange’s approval, as the banks have been allowed to increase their hypothecations by using “pledged gold” supposedly held in London, outside the exchange’s jurisdiction.

— Maguire recently discussed improprieties and systemic risks in the gold market with the director of the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority, Andrew Bailey, who has just been appointed governor of the Bank of England.

— Gold market rigging has been supported by prohibitions on major U.S. gold futures traders from trading simultaneously in the cash market in London, even as bullion banks may continue trading in both markets, which will give the banks a huge advantage if U.S. gold futures trading is ever suspended temporarily because of volatility.

— The “spoofing” of the metals futures markets by bullion bank traders being prosecuted by the U.S. Justice Department is the smallest part of the banks’ market rigging.

— Swiss banks are already “bailing in” their gold and cash depositors, sharply restricting annual gold and cash withdrawals. As of January 1 Germany also is imposing sharp limits on gold withdrawals from banks. These restrictions confirm the banks’ unauthorized disposal of depositors’ gold.

— Russia recently purchased a thousand tonnes of gold without making any announcement.

— Mainstream financial news organizations are refusing to report what is really happening in the gold market.

— The United States government long ago sold the custodial gold it was holding for Germany and then, to honor the Bundesbank’s request for repatriation, had to buy gold to replace it. To recover the gold the U.S. government knocked the gold futures price down so it could fulfill its obligation to Germany without exploding the market.

— Governments and investors around the world are catching on to the gold price suppression scheme in the futures market and are taking delivery of real metal and making price suppression more difficult.

— Major investors increasingly are seeking financial hedges without counterparty risk, and the best such hedge is gold vaulted outside the banking system.

— The gold price suppression scheme’s endgame is cash settlement of futures contracts.

Maguire’s interview is 54 minutes long and can be heard at the TF Metals Report here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9830/gold-2020-andrew-maguire

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

Macleod talks about a powerful”whale” hiding as longs inside the Comex gold futures

(Kingworldnews/GATA)

A ‘whale’ is hiding in Comex gold futures, GoldMoney’s Macleod tells KWN

 Section: 

11:24a ET Sunday, December 22, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With open interest in Comex gold futures contracts rising to record levels, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod tells King World News today, “there is a gargantuan struggle between bulls and bears, the speculators and the bullion banks,” and “a whale appears to be hiding in Comex gold futures” with a position of perhaps as much as $15 billion.

This, Macleod adds, could be “an attempt to break the Comex bank.”

… 

Meanwhile the U.S. Federal Reserve continues injecting nearly infinite amounts of money into the banking system, with inflationary implications.

Macleod’s comments are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-macleod-gold-silver-and-us-dollar-upd…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

There is now another criminal probe into precious metals trading in Singapore..a solid gold hub.  Two individuals have now departed the company. JPMorgan has now only 12 precious metals traders

(Reuters)

JPMorgan metals traders investigated in Singapore, two depart, sources tell Reuters

 Section: 

By Lawrence Delevingne, Peter Hobson, and Mai Nguyen
Reuters
Thursday, December 19, 2019

Regulatory scrutiny of precious metals trading at JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the world’s largest gold brokerages, has expanded to Singapore and ensnared two more bank employees, according to people familiar with the situation.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore is looking into the bank’s precious metals trading unit, three sources confirmed. A probe in the United States has resulted in criminal charges against six current and former employees of the bank. Regulators in the United Kingdom are also interested in the matter, Reuters has reported.
JPMorgan’s global precious metals trading staff has shrunk to around half a dozen people, industry sources say.

Tonny Ka, the bank’s head precious metals trader in Singapore, has been put on leave, two of the people said. The regulatory attention has also forced out Donald Turnbull, who until recently led JPMorgan’s global precious metals trading operation out of New York, one person told Reuters.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jp-morgan-metals/jpmorgan-metals-trad…

end

The chances for a gold dinar will low as the dollar is still the currency that these nations go to.

(Free Malaysia Today/GATA)

Dollar debt will bar Islamic countries from gold currency, economist says

 Section: 

Experts Say the Odds Are Against Gold Dinar

By Minderjeet Kaur
Free Malaysia Today, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
Monday, December 23, 2019

Disunity in the Islamic bloc and the preference for the status quo in world banking and trading links will probably scuttle the idea of a gold dinar as a new international currency, two experts say.

Nazari Ismail, a professor of economics at Universiti Malaya, said Saudi Arabia is not keen on the idea. “So that will be a big damper” as the country is influential in the Muslim world and is the host of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.

… 

Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad had brought up the idea of a gold dinar as an international reserve currency for Muslim countries in preference to the U.S. dollar as the dollar was sometimes unstable.

Nazari said Indonesia and Pakistan would probably not be interested as well, if it was true that they did not attend the Kuala Lumpur summit because of strong pressure from Saudi Arabia.

He said Qatar exports a lot of natural gas and would be likely to prefer the dollar, while Turkey’s private sector had a huge external debt almost completely denominated in dollars.

“In other words they will need plenty of dollars to pay back their dollar-denominated debts,” he said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/12/23/experts-say…

END

Interesting:  Russia’s gold production for the first 7 months of the year total 185.1 tonnes from 157.2 last year. Russia refuses to sell one oz so this either goes for official gold or stored at banks

(courtesy RT/GATA)

Russia boosts gold production by 18% in half a year

 Section: 

From Russia Today, Moscow
Sunday, December 22, 2019

Russia has produced more than 185.1 tons of gold from January to July this year, according to recent data published by the country’s Finance Ministry.

This is a 17.8-percent increase compared to the same period in 2018, when bullion production stood at nearly 157.2 tons, the ministry said in a statement.

… 

Silver did not post the same gains, however, as the production of that metal saw a 6 percent drop over the reported period. Its year-on-year output fell from 585.3 tons in 2018 down to 549.9 tons in 2019. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.rt.com/business/476596-russia-boosts-gold-production/

iii) Other physical stories:

J. JOHNSON’S EXPRESS

Silvers Reluctant Sellers Vs. Those Resolute Longs!

Posted December 23rd, 2019 at 11:41 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed

under General Editorial.

   Great and Wonder Monday Morning Folks!

      Comex Gold is giving the holder an early Christmas gift with the trade up $5.40 at $1,486.30 after touching $1,489.10 before the pullback, with the low at $1,481.20. Silver seems to be leading the charge at present with the March contract at $17.380 up 15.1 cents after hitting $17.465 with the low down at $17.230. The US Dollar is the one without movement today with the value pegged at 97.335, up 6.1 points and right there at the high of 97.355 with the low at 97.170. All of this happened already before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and still, way before Nancy Numbskull turns in those double secret  “you can’t see them because we won’t show them” articles of impeachment.

      Our Emerging Markets Currency Watch is on fire this morning with Venezuela now pricing Gold at 14,844.42 Bolivar adding 33.97 Bolivar since Friday morning with Silver adding 23.47 Bolivar to its value at 173.583. In Argentina, Gold’s value is now at 88,810.50 Peso’s proving a gain of 227.98 with Silver at 1,038.50 showing an additional 14.26 A-Pesos. The Turkish Lira has Gold’s value pegged at 8,837.20 adding 48.85 T-Lira in value with Silver now at 103.338 Lira showing an additional gain of 1.709 in T-Lira value.

      Our December Silver Delivery Demands are leading it all this morning (pricewise) as the count proves an 83 point reduction with the total demand for Physical Silver at 388 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 2 up on the board so far this morning showing how reluctant the seller is with the only price posted (high/low/last) at $17.355, up 22.7 cents from the Friday close. This of course does not take into account all those numbers in parenthesis which are still all over the place looking like an algo spoofer is still spoofing inside the delivery system.

       Silver’s Overall Open interest continues to gain, helping to prove the point that the paper doesn’t have enough real Silver behind it, with the OI adding another 1,962 more short contracts in order to add liquidity with the total count now at 211,063 Overnighters. This count is only 33,133 promissory notes away from breaking the Comex World Record of 244,196 Overnighters that has kept Silver from exploding the price higher during the past 4+ years. These short traders of Silver, have exploded the paper instead of the price, but that is as temporary a fix as can be. All we’re doing now, is waiting for the physical shortages to prove the problem in paper, and then the subsequent price “schwing” higher will occur.

      Silver’s Option Board is still confounding us as the January Options total proves a reduction in the Overall at 18,793 purchased calls losing 65 over the past weeks’ time. Inside this total count the $18 strike and below was reduced by 66 with that total at 6,543 with the $17 strikes and under, losing 82 with its total at 1,702. Of note here, this is the first reduction we’ve seen as we get closer to the end of the options trade which closes out this Thursday. Over the years, all we recall is the constant climb as they go into expiration. Maybe this means something?

      February Silver Options added 1,256 more purchases bringing the overall total up to 12,070 with the options at and under $18 equaling 4,872, increasing that count by 596 with the $17 and below total now at 1,487 increasing the count by 112. The March Options board now carries a total count of 26,232, proving an increase of 382 overall with the $18 and below gaining 420 bringing that total to 7,986 with the $17 and below at 4,295 proving a reduction of 12 so far. April’s Silvers Call Option Count gained across the spectrum with the total at 3,827 with the $18 and below gauged at 431 showing a gain of 289 with the $17 and below adding 126 of those 289 (at $18 and below) bringing the new amount to 161.

      The previous months Call Options Count (July, Sept, Dec 2019) we’ve watched over, have yet come close to being exceeded. Said another way, there are still no large amounts of purchased Calls anymore in Silver even if we go out to 2024. Whatever was planned is over, what happens next is what we’re waiting for, and as the price swings sharply higher because only 2 – 5,000-ounce purchases were made after that very odd 987 count Volume surprised the trade last week.

       Keeping watch is what we do, hoping it encourages everyone to stay the course and to keep your savings in physical precious metals and in hand. There is nothing safer out there. So, hang on tight and enjoy the ride and as always …

Stay Strong!

JJohnson

end

The repo money is going straight to the stock market.no question about it.  Pam and Russ discuss the winners and losers on the repo binge

(Pam and Russ Martens//Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Trump, stocks win in Fed’s repo binge; here are the losers

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, December 23, 2019

The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average set new record highs every single day last week. This occurred despite the Federal Reserve’s justifying its unprecedented hundreds of billions of dollars each week in cheap loans to Wall Street’s trading houses as necessary to stem a “liquidity” crisis.

You can’t have a liquidity crisis when the stock market is setting record highs for an entire week. Those two things just don’t correlate.

… 

The Fed, through its money spigot, the New York Fed, began sluicing these funds to Wall Street on September 17, the day the overnight borrowing rate in the repurchase agreement (repo) loan market spiked from 2 to 10 percent. This was the first such intervention by the Fed since the financial crisis. The repo market is where banks, hedge funds, and money market funds loan each other money overnight on the basis of good collateral like U.S. Treasury securities.

An unprecedented spike to 10 percent in the repo market is a harbinger that one or more of the borrowers in this market is in trouble and lenders don’t want the exposure so they are backing away from lending. This is how free markets are supposed to work. They are supposed to be allowed to send pivotal warning signs from time to time through an efficient pricing mechanism.

But instead of allowing the free market and efficient pricing components to function, the Fed cut this short and drew a dark curtain around this part of the market by flooding cheap, electronically-created money to Wall Street’s trading houses.

On December 12 the New York Fed upped the ante. It announced that over the next month it would shower the trading houses (primary dealers) on Wall Street with a cumulative total of $2.93 trillion in short-term loans.

Now Wall Street has made it clear what the cheap money is being used for. It’s not being loaned out to help the general economy — it’s being used to push the stock market to record highs each day. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/12/trump-and-the-stock-market-are-th…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Trump and the Stock Market Are the Winners in the Fed’s Repo Loan Binge; Here’s the Losers

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Russia adds a further 9.33 tonnes to its gold reserves

The Russian central bank has announced it added yet another tranche of 300,000 troy ounces (9.33 tonnes) to its gold reserves in November bringing its overall gold reserve level to a fraction short of 2,261 tonnes This keeps it in fifth place among the world’s biggest holders of gold as reported to the IMF, although the Chinese figure is reckoned to be far higher than the level actually reported according to many observers and analysts. This is probably a bit of an irrelevance to the Russians who continue to close in on the total gold holding levels reported by Italy and France – respectively 2.451.6 tonnes and 2,436 tonnes – and still well short of Germany’s 3,366.8 tonnes and the USA’s 8,133.5 tonnes.

Russia’ gold buying has totalled just over 148 tonnes so far this year, well down on the 274 tonnes it accumulated in 2018. Indeed this year’s total looks like coming in at the lowest increase in Russian gold reserves since 2013. Part of this decrease has been put down to the state encouraging Russian gold miners to sell more of their gold on international markets rather than rely on the state to take up most of the gold produced domestically. This is presumably to help boost the inflow of export earnings, although Russia does manage to run a current account surplus unlike many other advanced nations.

Russia was the world’s second or third largest gold producer last year, depending on whose figures one takes. This year it could become the world’s second largest gold producer for sure, putting it ahead of Australia if output growth matches some projections. The Union of Russian Gold Producers has estimated 2019 output as reaching 350 tonnes, but this could even be an underestimate (See: Is Russia already the world’s No. 2 gold producer and on way to No. 1?. Russia, like China, is a strong believer in gold’s power to give international credibility to the nation’s currency, while it continues to cast doubt on the long term stability of the mighty U.S. dollar’s current dominance given the USA’s huge debt levels and seemingly ever growing current account deficits. It is also looking to protect itself from financial warfare against the ruble being conducted, as it sees it, by the U.S.’s sanctions policies. The latest moves by the U.S. to halt the Nordstream 2 under-Baltic oil pipeline would, in Russian eyes, seem to emphasise the U.S.’s weaponisation of the dollar. It is also nervous about possible exclusion from the U.S.-dominated SWIFT international financial transactions system and has been making moves to set up an alternative, along with other countries which feel similarly threatened, or have already been frozen out of the system.

Table: World top 10 gold holders as reported to IMF adjusted for latest Russian figures

Table: World top 10 gold holders
as reported to IMF adjusted for
latest Russian figures

Tonnes % of reserves**
United States

8,133.5

77.3%

Germany

3,366.8

72.9%

Italy

2,451.8

69.2%

France

2,436.1

62.1%

Russian Federation

2,259.7

21.0%

Mainland China

1,942.4

3.0%

Switzerland

1,040.0

6.1%

Japan

765.2

2.8%

India

618.2

7.0%

Netherlands

612.5

69.5%

Source: IMF, lawrieongold.com

As can be seen from the above table, apart from Russia – and China up until a few months ago – the world’s major gold holders have not been reporting any changes in their gold reserves for some time. Whether this is an accurate representation of their true reserve holdings, or perhaps a function of central bank secrecy, is a moot point and open for discussion.

22 Dec 2019

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.0126/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0076   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 42.19 POINTS OR 1.40%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 35.06 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 4.48 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.71/Euro FALLS TO 1.1077

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.41/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.41 and Brent: 66.18

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.25%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.43% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.43%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.68: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.42

3k Gold at $1482.70 silver at: 17.32   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 2/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.31

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.41 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9817 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0868 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.325%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.92% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.34%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9427..

Meltup Accelerates Into Christmas Break As Algos Run Wild In Illiquid Markets

After the decade’s last quad-witching came and went without any adverse incidents, and instead a massive short squeeze of the December Emini contract into its 930am Friday expiration repriced the entire market about 15 points higher…

 

… the relentless, QE4 inspired melt-up has only accelerated in today’s low volume session, as US equity futures pushed to fresh all time highs above 3,230…

 

… even as world stocks took a breather near record highs while currency and bond markets were little changed on Monday as trading volumes collapsed before the Christmas holiday.

 

On Friday, the S&P extended its record highs to seven straight sessions, its longest streak in more than two years, as  all three major U.S. indexes – the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow – gained.

The MSCI ACWI index was flat, trading at Friday’s record high. It has risen nearly 3% this month as U.S.-China trade tensions eased and confidence grew that Britain would avoid a no deal exit from the European Union. The index is up 23% so far in 2019, set for its best year since 2009, with all of this upside thanks to multiple expansion as global earnings are down in 2019 compared to the prior year.

 

Trump did everything in his power to ensure a Monday spike after repeating – once again – on Saturday the United States and China would “very shortly” sign phase one a trade agreement, the same agreement he said in October would be signed in November. In response, China said on Monday it would lower tariffs on products ranging from frozen pork and avocado to some types of semiconductors next year.

“The Phase 1 (P1) agreement and UK elections have cleared up tail risks, but the market is now transcending that euphoria,” AxiTrader strategist Stephen Innes told Bloomberg. “While P1 is already reflected in stock prices, positioning is still relatively light, and with plenty of capital yet to be deployed, markets could even push significantly higher supported by the global growth rebound.”

The European Stoxx 600 index was flat, after starting off modestly lower before trading in positive territory. It hit a new record high in the Friday session.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was near its highest since June 2018, up 0.05%, despite an unexpected hiccup in Chinese markets, where stocks posted their worst single-day drop in six weeks, weighed down by a correction in tech shares after a state fund announced plans to cut its stakes in some chip makers.

 

Asian shares were mixed with subdued volume ahead of the year-end holiday season. Health care stocks rose while material companies fell. The benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, as gains in New Zealand stocks offset declines in China shares. The New Zealand Exchange 50 Gross Index jumped 0.6%, extending a new high on Monday, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index slumped 1.4% due to weak performance in financial shares. India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index dropped 0.3%. As we reported, on Monday the Chinese government said it will cut import tariffs for goods including frozen pork, pharmaceuticals, paper products and some high-tech components starting from Jan. 1, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance.

As Bloomberg notes, all asset classes are on track for the best returns in a decade in 2019 after central banks around the world eased monetary policy.

“There is justification to say that the fundamentals are turning, but we haven’t seen confirmation in prices or data yet,” Kyle Rodda, an analyst at IG Markets Ltd., said on Bloomberg TV. “The risk is skewed to the upside, but I still think it’s a tentative picture at the moment.”

In FX markets, the euro was at $1.1083, up 0.05% after slipping 0.4% last week. Sterling tumbled again, sliding as low as 1,2930, a fresh 3 week low, extending its decline after seeing its worst week in more than two years. It remains on the back foot after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson renewed hard-Brexit fears with an accelerated schedule for signing a trade deal with the European Union. It slid 2.6% last week for its worst weekly showing since October 2017. The safe-haven Japanese yen was down 0.08% at 109.35. And while the dollar was initially lower against most Group-of-10 peers in light holiday trading, it has since turned positive on the back of the pound’s latest mauling.

In commodities, Brent crude was down 23 cents to $65.95 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 24 cents to $60.2 a barrel, while gold rose to a 7 week high.

The U.S. personal consumption expenditure deflator for November, due on Friday, is the only major economic report this week.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,228.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.02% to 418.49
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to -0.259%
  • Euro up 0.03% to $1.1082
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 1.237%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.436%
  • MXAP up 0.01% to 170.13
  • MXAPJ up 0.06% to 550.41
  • Nikkei up 0.02% to 23,821.11
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,729.42
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 27,906.41
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 2,962.75
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 41,629.16
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,785.14
  • Kospi down 0.02% to 2,203.71
  • Brent futures down 0.3% to $65.94/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,484.27
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.63

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China cut import tariffs on a wide range of goods including food, consumer items and parts for manufacturing smart-phones, continuing Beijing’s drive to lower trade barriers and spur domestic demand
  • Oil extended losses after the biggest decline in three weeks as Kuwait signaled a deal with Saudi Arabia to renew crude output along their border and as U.S. shale explorers increased drilling
  • One of Donald Trump’s top allies and his chief economic adversary are drifting closer, at least when it comes to trade
  • After money-laundering scandals involving hundreds of billions of euros rocked some of Europe’s biggest banks, the Baltic region has begun a fresh clampdown. This time, the target is payment-service providers
  • U.S. President Trump told Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro he won’t reimpose tariffs on steel, aluminum from the Latin American nation, according to a person familiar
  • Satellite images show North Korea has added a structure to a factory linked to the production of intercontinental ballistic missiles, reports NBC News
  • Financial Times reports that traders at HSBC and JPMorgan Chase are among those who accessed a high-speed audio feed of Bank of England press conferences
  • Michel Barnier, European Commission chief negotiator for Brexit, says Britain must stick closely to Brussels’ standards on tax, state aid and environment to secure a trade deal with the bloc. Warns it will be “immensely challenging” to finish a deal by end of 2020 deadline, according to the Sunday Times

Asian equity markets traded somewhat mixed as the region once again failed to fully join in on the Christmas cheer which had propelled Wall Street to fresh record highs on Friday, with volumes light heading into the holidays. ASX 200 (-0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) were varied with Australia dragged by commodity-related losses and due to the adverse effects of its recent currency appreciation, while the Japanese benchmark remained afloat but with upside capped by an indecisive JPY and after Japanese Chief Cabinet Suga clarified that they have not eased export controls on South Korea. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) lacked conviction despite the announcement that China is to lower import tariffs for some products beginning January 1st and after the recent Trump-Xi call in which the leaders were said to have conducted a very good talk regarding the trade deal, although reports further noted that Chinese President Xi stated US interference is harming China’s interests and there were also downward revisions to November Chinese trade data including a wider contraction in Exports. Finally, 10yr JGBs languished firmly below the 152.00 level after the recent bear-flattening in USTs and with demand also dampened by the lack of BoJ presence in the market today.

Top Asian News

  • Warburg-Backed ESR Is Said to Mull REIT IPO of Korean Assets
  • SoftBank, Naver Hike Line Offer as Son Takes on Google, Amazon
  • Rescuers Sought for India Shadow Bank Altico as Crisis Deepens
  • India BJP Trails in State Poll Signaling More Woes for Modi

Tentative and mixed trade for European bourses in the final full session before Christmas [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%] following on from a similar APAC handover amid a lack of conviction and participants. In terms of YTD performance in Europe – FTSE MIB stands as the winner with YTD returns of just over 30% followed by the CAC 40 (+27.3%), DAX (+26.0%) and Euro Stoxx 50 (+25.7%) whilst IBEX 35 (+13.1%) and FTSE 100 (+12.8%) reside towards the bottom end of the spectrum. State-side, Nasdaq (+34.5%) leads the YTD gains followed by S&P 500 (+28.5%) and DJIA (+22.0%). Back to today’s session, FTSE 100 (+0.4%) outpaced peers as exporters benefit from a softer Sterling. Sectors also reflect an indecisive risk tone with no major standouts. In terms of individual movers: Bayer (+3.0%) rose to the top of the German index after the US government said the USD 25mln verdict on Co’s Roundup case should be reversed. Lufthansa (-1.3%) shares are pressured after talks with the German Union UFO fell through and strikes are imminent, albeit the union will refrain from strike action during the busy Christmas period. Meanwhile, GSK (-0.4%) drifted off lows but remains subdued after the US FDA declined to approve Co’s long acting HIV injections after the regulator questioned the treatment’s chemistry, manufacturing and controls process but not its safety. Finally, NMC Health (+28.5%) spiked higher at the open, and have continued to strengthen, after the Co. stated it will be commencing an independent third-party review to provide additional reassurances to shareholders after activist short-seller Muddy Waters questioned the integrity of NMC’s reports. Note: tomorrows session sees Eurex and all its derivatives closer whilst cash DAX will be shut all day – the rest of the cash bourses will see an early finish.

Top European News

  • Consilium Soars More than 200% on Unit Sale to Nordic Capital
  • Germany Expects Gas Pipeline Delay Before Completion in 2020
  • Neste Jumps on Reinstatement of U.S. Blender’s Tax Credit
  • Benettons’ Atlantia to Confront Italy Government on Road Reform

In FX, AUD/NZD – The Aussie and Kiwi are still outpacing their G10 rivals and jostling for top spot in the major stakes having made firmer breaches of big figures against their US counterpart, with Aud/Usd up to 0.6920 and Nzd/Usd reaching 0.6625. Both have benefited from a mixture of short covering and technical buying after recent relatively upbeat data that has reduced or rolled back RBA/RBNZ rate cut expectations. In terms of next bullish chart targets, 0.6939 looms as long as the pair holds/closes above the 200 DMA (circa 0.6905) and 0.6636 respectively.

  • CHF/GBP – The Franc is in bronze position and eyeing 0.9800 vs the Buck as latest weekly Swiss sight deposits suggest less active currency intervention and the Greenback drifts down from best levels generally (DXY dipping within a narrow 97.708-578 range) amidst even thinner seasonal volumes and a softer/flatter Treasury yield curve. Similarly, Sterling is trying to take advantage of the Dollar’s dip and attempting to keep hold or sight of the 1.3000 level even though no deal Brexit risks have risen with the passing of the 1st parliament vote on PM Johnson’s WAB that includes a no transition delay clause.
  • EUR//JPY/CAD – All more narrowly mixed against the Usd, with the single currency mired between 1.1074-88 parameters, Yen meandering from 109.35-53 and Loonie pivoting 1.3150 ahead of Canadian GDP for the month of October that is forecast to be flat, but could disappoint given a string of bleak data since this month’s BoC meeting. Back to Eur/Usd, some option expiry interest could impact in the absence of anything else and the aforementioned quiet pre-Xmas trade, as almost 1 bn rolls off at 1.1070 and from 1.1100-10.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Swedish Crown has slipped after another test of resistance near 10.4150 against the Euro failed to propel the Sek higher, but its Norwegian peer is extending gains through 10.0000 towards 9.9150 on the back of the Norges Bank’s gently inclined depo rate path. Elsewhere, EMs are largely going through the motions in tight bands vs the Dollar.

In commodities, the energy complex remains flat/subdued amid holiday-thinned conditions after a lacklustre Asia session in light of a number of bearish supply-side factors including Friday’s increase in active rigs reported via the Baker Hughes rig count coupled with reports of a Saudi-Kuwaiti agreement to renew oil output in the shared neutral zone by year-end. WTI futures hover just above the USD 60/bbl mark whilst its Brent counterpart retains USD 66/bbl+ status at time of writing. Russian Energy Minister Novak failed to provide the complex with much impetus in early EU trade despite noting that the OPEC+ could discuss deeper oil output cut quotas at its March meeting (5th/6th) in 2020. This follows this month’s policy revision in which the cartel agreed to deeper cuts of 496k BPD starting from Q1 2020, with an extraordinary meeting in March for a review. Elsewhere, gold trades on a firmer footing with the yellow metal hovering around current session highs of ~USD 1485/oz ahead of reported trend-line resistance at ~USD 1487/oz. Copper also garnered some support from the initially softer Dollar with prices re-eying USD 2.80/lb to the upside, although the red metal’s 100 WMA rests just below the round figure at USD 2.7988/lb. Finally, Dalian iron ore rose in excess of 1.0% after key steelmaking cities in Northern China issued pollution alerts as air quality in the region deteriorates.

UIS Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.5%, prior 0.5%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 1.1%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.0%, prior 0.8%
  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.3, prior -0.7
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 730,000, prior 733,000; New Home Sales MoM, est. -0.41%, prior -0.7%

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.19 POINTS OR 1.40%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 35.06 POINTS OR 0.13%   /The Nikkei closed UP 4.48 POINTS OR 0.02%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .43%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 67.0126 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0126 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0079 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Soft Bank/WeWork

It looks like the huge 9.5 billion dollar rescue of WeWork has collapsed.  Three banks that were to loan to Soft Bank just got cold feet

(zerohedge)

Did SoftBank’s Bailout For WeWork Just Collapse?

In Oct., WeWork secured a $9.5 billion rescue package from SoftBank, a bailout package that would hand over at least 80% of the office-sharing startup to the Japanese bank. WeWork bonds rallied in hopes that the company was saved for near-death after a failed IPO.

Fast forward several months, sources told Reuters on Monday that SoftBank’s bailout for WeWork just got complicated, warning that there’s no bailout money.

end

Sources told Reuters that SoftBank’s discussions with Mizuho, MUFG, and SMFG have stalled because lenders have hit internal lending limits to the firm. This means Japan’s three largest banks won’t provide capital to SoftBank, so it can bailout WeWork.

  • SOFTBANK’S TALKS TO SECURE $3 BLN FROM JAPANESE BANKS HAVE STALLED -SOURCES
  • SOFTBANK LIKELY TO ENTER NEW YEAR WITHOUT $3 BLN WEWORK FINANCING IN PLACE -SOURCES

Sources said the three big banks are working with SoftBank to develop alternative ways to provide financing while offsetting exposure. Option one that was pitched is using SoftBank’s 26% stake in Alibaba Group as collateral.

“SoftBank is an important client so we want to do everything we can to help, but we have to consider our credit risk,” a senior banker told Reuters.

WeWork is likely to enter the new year without the promised financing from SoftBank that could complicate things for the struggling office-sharing startup that is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, with mounting debt and no plans on becoming profitable.

S&P Global Ratings senior director Ryoji Yoshizawa said another option is for the banks to create a syndicated loan for a bailout; he added that it would take too long as it appears WeWork has a funding crunch.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs agreed to bailout WeWork with a $1.75 billion line of credit.

With the bailout not adequately funded, does this mean WeWork has to take more cost-cutting measures, such as backing out of leases to survive? If so, this could be very disruptive to commercial property markets.

end

3 C CHINA

HONG KONG/CHINA
Not good:  Hong Kong police arrest 4 alleged financiers of the protest movement
(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Police Arrest 4 Alleged Financiers Of The Protest Movement

On Thursday, police in Hong Kong announced the arrests of several individuals whom they described as leaders of the Hong Kong protests movement. But these individuals (their identities have not been released) were not simply collared out in the street.

Instead, police described the four as leaders of Spark Alliance, a mysterious organization that has been one of the main financiers of the protest movement, including by bailing protesters out of jail and helping to defray their legal fees.

Police seized HK$70 million ($9 million) in bank deposits and personal insurance products from Spark, claiming that the group broke laws about money laundering.

 

In a response posted to its FB group, Spark blasted the police, accusing them of deliberately trying to cut off one of the most important avenues of financing in the protest movement.

On Thursday evening, police announced the arrests of four people connected with Spark Alliance for suspected money laundering, the first cases brought over financing the demonstrations after six months of protests against China’s tightening grip over Hong Kong. Authorities froze HK$70 million of bank deposits and personal insurance products linked to the fund, while also seizing HK$130,000 in cash.

“The police attempted, through false statements, to distort the work of Spark Alliance as money laundering for malicious uses,” the group said in a statement on Facebook. “Spark Alliance condemns this kind of defamatory action.”

The arrests and seizures, as Bloomberg explains, shed light on the innerworkings of the Hong Kong protest movement. Millions of Americans who have read the news reports about the protests have probably been left wondering how the protesters became so organized.

Well, this is how: Since the beginning of the movement, wealthy working HKers have observed their duty to help those battling it out on the front lines in any way possible. Mostly, they do it through donations to groups that purport to help bail out protesters after they’ve been arrested, or groups that simply provide food and shelter for the demonstrators, many of whom are teenagers, or in their early 20s.

This division of responsibilities is part of what’s allowed the movement to continue on for as long as it has.

But by cracking down on the money, HK police are essentially pulling the rug out from under Hong Kongers facing criminal charges for protest-related activities.

Because Spark Alliance and another, more transparent, fund called the 612 Humanitarian Fund are responsible for financing the protest movement: According to BBG, the two funds account for 70% of the money raised by the protest movement.

The impact of this crackdown is two-fold: not only will protesters counting on these funds to pay their legal fees be left out in the cold, but the renewed police scrutiny could deter some working Hong Kongers who have been supporting the movement with donations.

The crackdown deals a major blow to demonstrators as they face ever-mounting legal bills, with more than 6,000 people arrested since June. Spark Alliance, one of the largest crowd-funding campaigns supporting the protests, plays a crucial behind-the-scenes role – often sending anonymous representatives to bail protesters out of jail in the middle of the night.

The latest arrests risk deterring Hong Kong’s professional class from giving more cash, potentially curbing a substantial source of funds that have helped sustain the protests longer than anyone had expected. They also show the limits of the leaderless movement’s ability to manage tens of millions of dollars with little oversight outside of a formal financial system.

Funds bankrolling the protests have collectively raised at least HK$254 million ($33 million) since June, with 70% coming from just two groups, Spark Alliance and the 612 Humanitarian Fund, according to a tally based on disclosures from the groups and an analysis of publicly available documents. That figure doesn’t reflect all the money raised related to the protests, only the funds Bloomberg News could verify.

Before the arrests, most Hong Kongers didn’t know the identities of anyone behind Spark Alliance. Its website and bank accounts (before they were shut down) all forwarded to a Pest Control company.

But Spark proved its reliability early on by helping bail protesters out of jail. But the group has been under scrutiny even before the police got involved. Last month, HSBC shut down the group’s account, saying they had detected activity that differed from the stated purpose of the account.

“Spark is probably less transparent but people tend to believe them,” said Jason, a protester in his 30s who asked to be identified by his English name. He said he memorized the group’s phone number and called the group after he was arrested in August. Seven hours later, two lawyers helped arrange HK$4,000 in bail money.

“Everyone knows the cost to fight for this movement and not everyone can afford lawyer fees,” he said. “We need protection.”

Over the past few months he’s raised half a million dollars for Spark Alliance and other charities through the sale of Hong Kong-themed figurines, including a miniature Carrie Lam and a masked protester. Asked on Thursday night if he would still give the money to Spark Alliance, Jason said he wanted more information on the arrests.

The shadowy nature of some of these organizations has helped the Chinese government portray the protests as having been financed by foreign powers like the US. Of course, these accusations aren’t entirely without merit. Beijing threatened sanctions this month against the National Endowment for Democracy, a US-based group which donated $686,000 to various Hong Kong nonprofits in 2019.

Meanwhile, the June 12 fund has already spent roughly a quarter of the money it has raised since June, mostly on legal expenses and bail.

For many of the thousands of protesters who have been arrested, the criminal penalties that they could face without adequate legal representation could land them in prison for years.

Without having the support of knowing their bail will be paid in the event of an arrest, many demonstrators wouldn’t be so eager to fight their way past police barricades and take other risks like that.

But many members of the protest movement believe the 612 fund is too stodgy in how it operates. Most see organizations like Spark Alliance as being closer to the true ideals of the movement.

The 612 fund has been chided in online forums for deploying only 24% of the money it raised while asking protesters to first apply for legal aid from the city. Other critics see the 612 fund as part of an older political establishment in Hong Kong that has failed the younger generation of democracy advocates, and they believe Spark Alliance is closer to protesters in the trenches.

“The younger generation doesn’t trust in any institutions, not even those that advocate for democracy,” said Patrick Poon, a researcher at Amnesty International in Hong Kong. “It’s an irrational decision to trust in a group believed to be closer to the people on the ground even if they don’t know who is behind the fund.”

Ng, a 612 fund trustee, said the group is supported by “members of the public that are incensed by what is being done by police and government.”

“The movement is ongoing and we are using the funds for the stated purpose of humanitarian aid,” she said. “We don’t have any obligation to spend all the money immediately.”

Now that police have set their sights on Spark, we imagine a new group will need to come forward and take up the mantle of the protest movement, or risk allowing it to fizzle out.

end

Saturday:  Hong Kong riot police clash with protesters following a rally for oppressed Muslims

(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Riot Cops Clash With Protesters Following Rally For China’s Oppressed Muslims

Riot police in Hong Kong forcefully broke up a pro-democracy rally in solidarity with millions of Uighurs – Chinese Muslims living under oppressive conditions, many in so-called ‘re-education camps.’

Around 1,000 protesters gathered near Hong Kong’s harbor, waving pro-Uighur posters and flags – in what appears to be the latest grievance between the pro-democracy movement and China’s influence. While largely peaceful, police used pepper spray to disperse the protesters. In response, protesters threw glass bottles and rocks.

We shall not forget those who share a common goal with us, our struggle for freedom and democracy and the rage against the Chinese Communist Party,” said one protester holding a megaphone.

China runs Hong Kong under a “one country, two systems” model that grants the financial capital expanded freedoms not enjoyed on the mainland. Many Hong Kongers view China as encroaching on these freedoms and fear mainland policies will come to the city.

What started as a movement against Chinese meddling has morphed into broader calls for greater democracy and police accountability following months of often violent protests.

The huge scale of the surveillance and prison system in Xinjiang has been closely watched in Hong Kong, with many fearful that similar measures could befall the city. –DW

The United nations and human rights organizations have widely condemned China’s treatment of Uighurs. Approximately 1 million have been forced to live in internment camps in the northwestern Xinjiang region. While Beijing calls them “vocational training centers” required to combat Islamic terrorism, those who have escaped tell shocking tales of torture and control.

The Chinese government are control freaks; they can’t stand any opinions they disagree with,” a civil servant and protester named Kathrine told AFP before riot police moved in.

“In Xinjiang they are doing what they are doing because they have the power to do so. When they take over Hong Kong, they will do the same.”

end

CHINA

China faces a huge systemic risk form a debt cross default chain reaction and this was stated by a top Central bank advisor.

(zeorhedge)

China Faces “Systemic Risk” From Debt Cross-Default “Chain Reaction”, Top Central Bank Advisor Warns

Just days after China’s “moment of reckoning” in the dollar bond market arrived, when China was rocked by not only the biggest dollar bond default in two decades but also the first default by a massive state-owned commodities trader and Global 500 company, when Tianjin’s Tewoo Group announced the results of its “unprecedented” debt restructuring which saw a majority of its bondholders accepting heavy losses, and which according to rating agencies qualified as an event of default, last week a top adviser to China’s central bank warned of a possible “chain reaction” of defaults among the country’s thousands of local government financing vehicles after one of these entities nearly missed a payment this month.

As the FT reported, Ma Jun, an external adviser to the People’s Bank of China, called on the government to introduce “intervention mechanisms” to contain the risk associated with LGFVs — special entities used in the country to fund billions of dollars of roads, bridges and other infrastructure.

“Among the tens of thousands of platform-style institutions nationwide, if only a few publicly breach their contracts it may lead to a chain reaction,” Ma said in an interview published on Wednesday in the state-controlled Securities Times newspaper, adding that “measures should be created as soon as possible to prevent and resolve local hidden debt risks to effectively prevent the systemic risks of platform default and closure.”

Ever since Beijing allowed local corporations to fail, China has seen a surge in corporate defaults in local currency and US dollar bonds as economic growth grinds to a 30-year low. As we reported recently, China is set to hit another dismal milestone in 2019 when a record amount of onshore bonds are set to default, confirming that something is indeed cracking in China’s financial system and testing the government’s ability to keep financial markets stable as the economy slows and companies struggle to cope with unprecedented levels of debt.

 

After a brief lull in the third quarter, a burst of at least 20 new defaults since the start of November have sent the year’s total to 131 billion yuan ($18.7 billion), eclipsing the 121.9 billion yuan annual record in 2018.

While this still represents a tiny fraction of China’s $4.4 trillion onshore corporate bond market, the bad news is that the rapidly rising number is approaching a tipping point that could unleash a default cascade, and in the process fueling concerns of potential contagion as investors struggle to gauge which companies have Beijing’s support. As Bloomberg notes, policy makers have been walking a tightrope as they try to roll back the implicit guarantees that have long distorted Chinese debt markets, without dragging down an economy already weakened by the trade war and tepid global growth.

Meanwhile, that “tipping point” could arrive much faster if a surge in government-linked defaults creates a crisis of confidence in China debt markets, which have long been protected by implicit state guarantees.

Besides the record number of default in the local bond market and the recent groundbreaking default of the dollar bonds issued by the state-owned Tewoo, concern has grown in recent months over the vast accumulation of debt in LGFVs, especially after the near default of one such financing platform, Hohhot Economic and Technological Development Zone Investment Development Group, in the Chinese autonomous region of Inner Mongolia earlier this month.

To avoid a cascading collapse in confidence among China’s creditors, Ma proposed one potential measure to allow for distressed LGFVs to be taken over by healthier one, very much similar to how a record number of China’s small and medium banks were “resolved” in 2019, despite at least two bank runs being triggered last month as previously reported.

The comments by Ma, a former Deutsche Bank economist, come as concerns grow in China’s central government about rising systemic risk. At a high-level planning session in Beijing earlier this month, at which many of the next year’s economic challenges are discussed among senior officials, the avoidance of systemic risk was listed as a priority.

“At the meeting, China’s top policymakers stressed stable macro policy with flexible fine-tuning, and pledged to prevent systematic financial risks,” Mizuho Securities economist Serena Zhou said in a report to investors this month, noting that “such a pledge came the same day as Hohhot Economic and Technological Development Zone Investment Development Group, a LGFV 100 per cent owned by the Hohhot local government, reportedly missed its bond payment.”

And while the Hohhot group’s repayment deadline was eventually extended after the group failed to repay a 1 billion yuan ($142 million) privately placed bond earlier this month, the situation grabbed the attention of both creditors in other similar LGFV situations as well as analysts.

As the FT notes, China’s LGFVs have been key drivers of economic growth in China since the mid-1990s, backing many of the local infrastructure projects that have boosted growth rates in recent years. But they are also closely connected to China’s shadow banking sector, making it difficult for central authorities to fully assess the risk connected to the groups.

Meanwhile, adding to Beijing’s list of “default domino” default woes, in addition to rising fears about the stability of LGFVs, Bloomberg points out that the rising default tide is now impacting even one of China’s wealthiest provinces, namely Shandong, where six privately owned companies have defaulted on their debt or come close to doing so in the last three months. With 68.1 billion yuan ($9.7 billion) in outstanding debt among those six companies alone, “the distress in Shandong has rattled even seasoned investors.”

Of course, the problem isn’t the defaults themselves, as many other provinces have seen more and worse – just last month we showed how cash-strapped Tianjin could soon be ground zero for a Chinese default quake in 2020. The far greater risk as Bloomberg notesis the practice common among Shandong companies of guaranteeing each others’ debts. As firms don’t have to make public such “off balance sheet” liabilities, investors are left in the dark who’s on the hook and for how much. And with China’s once-strong industrial economy flagging, the murky ties between the province’s private companies threaten to drag them all down together.

And with a sharp rise in defaults in both the local and dollar bond markets, and LGFVs teetering, it’s still unclear how the government will intervene in Shandong and elsewhere. Policy makers have been increasingly willing to let weak companies fail, but they’re also under pressure to keep the economy growing and the markets stable.

As of now, Shandong’s city and local governments have stepped in with piecemeal relief. It’s uncertain whether the provincial government will do the same. As a result, the province’s firms risk entering a vicious cycle that “spreads solvency risks to the entire region, swamping the good credits along with the bad,” according to an October report from S&P Global Ratings.

While the default rate for bonds issued by non-state companies across China jumped to a record 4.5% in the first 10 months of 2019, Fitch Ratings warned in a Dec. 3 report that the figure might understate the true level of defaults given that some borrowers settle with bondholders privately rather than through clearing houses. The rate for state-owned companies was just 0.2% thanks to financial support from the government and better access to funding from banks, Fitch said, but even that is set to surge in 2020 following the closely-followed Tewoo bankruptcy.

As Bloomberg notes, Shandong is one of China’s oldest economic centers, built first on trade, then agriculture, mining and oil drilling. Not long ago, the economy was still booming, credit was cheap and private firms were on a spending spree, restrained only by limited access to capital. In communist-run China, state-owned banks tend to favor state-owned companies for loans.

So city governments encouraged the private sector to support itself. Cross-guarantees were one solution. They also concentrated the financial risks, says S&P analyst Cindy Huang.

“Cross-guarantees tend to be clustered around certain cities and regions rather than across the province,” she said. “They’re often between private, unlisted companies from either the same city, same sector or where CEOs know one another.”

So to loosely paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, “How did you go bankrupt? Two ways: Gradually and then suddenly… and when you do, you take down all your friends down with you.”

That’s precisely what China has in store for bondholders of its massive $40 trillion financial sector in the coming years.

END

China

China is desperate to contain costs as they now lower tariffs on pork, tech and many global imports

(zerohedge)

China To Cut Tariffs On Pork, Tech And Many Global Imports It Desperately Needs

After a phase one trade deal with the US, China said on Monday that it would slash import tariffs on a wide range of goods from around the world to boost domestic consumption. As Bloomberg reported,  the Ministry of Finance published a list outlining 859 products that will be subjected to lower tariffs, some of those items include food, consumer goods, and high-tech parts for electronics.

One of the most critical items on the list is pork, which will be imported in more significant amounts come early January to lower domestic spot prices that have hyperinflated in late 2019. Increasing pork imports will also allow the government to rebuild the pork cold storage inventory that was depleted thanks to the outbreak of African swine fever that decimated the country’s pig herds.

The list also includes pharmaceutical ingredients, avocados, orange juice, and seafood, as China’s middle-class, some of the wealthiest in the world, demand more expensive products.

Bloomberg notes that 2018 imports of the listed items were about $389 billion, or about 18% of China’s total imports of $2.14 trillion. And since tariffs are merely a tax on its consumers, what Beijing has just done is stimulate domestic consumption for an economy where GDP is set to hit a new sub 6% record soon.

 

That said, China will likely spin the tariff cuts as “generous concessions” to the US, but as we’ve explained before, China isn’t going to source from the US entirely. Chinese importers will gravitate to areas of the world where products are the most affordable. For example, Chinese importers of farm products ditched US farmers for ones in South America because of the exchange rate and lower spot prices on soybean and pork.

“The move in lowering import tariffs reflects that the government wants to reaffirm its stance to the world on freer trade amid the trade war,” said Gary Ng, an economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. “Domestically, lowering import tariffs are helpful in reducing business and consumer costs.”

Monday’s tariff cuts hint that China’s economy continues to decelerate rapidly, and the government is scrambling to boost domestic consumption. And while China will try to use the tariff reduction as ammo to push the US for tariff cuts of its own, there’s little evidence that Chinese importers will source the new imports from the US.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

An excellent paper from Alasdair Macleod talking upon the genius of Domenic Cummings who has basically put the plan in place for this Brexit.

a must read..

(Alasdair Macleod)

Post-Brexit Planning: “The Establishment Is Due For An Enormous Shake-Up”

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

Brexit will be done by the end of next month, when trade negotiations with the EU will begin. Importantly, Britain’s negotiating position has strengthened immeasurably, and the new government is not afraid to use it.

This Conservative government has a greater sense of political and economic direction than Britain has seen in a long time. Unbeknown to the public, not only will the establishment that obstructed Brexit be side-lined, but a slimmed-down post-Brexit cabinet through a network of special advisers lead by Dominic Cummings will revolutionise central government, reducing bureaucracy and refocusing resources on public service objectives instead of wasted on process.

But there is a dichotomy. While both the government and the new intake of MPs lean towards free markets, Cummings and Johnson will increase government intervention to secure their electoral advantage for the future, and to ensure a planned outcome in a world which in following decades will be dominated by new large Asian economies.

There are two wildcards which could trip the new government up. In the coming months there will almost certainly be a global credit and systemic crisis, which will have a profound impact on trade negotiations. And as far as we can tell, while this government is undoubtedly in favour of small government and free trade, there is no evidence it understands a cohesive theory of money and credit.

Boris and the Conservatives won the General Election with a very good majority. In truth, opposition parties stood little chance of success against the Tory strategists, who controlled the narrative despite a hostile media. At the centre of their slick operation was Dominic Cummings, who masterminded the Brexit leave vote, winning the referendum against all the betting in 2016. It was Cummings who arranged for the Tory Remainers to fall on their swords, which by removing the whip reduced the Tory ranks, making them appear vulnerable enough for the opposition parties to tear up the requirement for a supermajority and vote for a general election.

It was straight out of Sun Tzu’s playbook: “All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.” The way the Remainers were removed was both brutal and public. On 3 September fifteen of them went for a meeting in Downing Street, obviously convinced, with Johnson only having a parliamentary majority of one, that they were in a very strong position to negotiate either for a second referendum or Brexit in name only. Dismissing them, Cummings was blunt to the point of rudeness: “I don’t know who any of you are”. And they left with nothing.

Observers at the time saw this as suicidal, but Cummings appears to have known what he was doing. The hapless rebels had no coherent plan other than to threaten, and their bluff was called. Better, it seems Cummings concluded, to purge the parliamentary party of serial rebels than to be beholden to them.

Much has been written in the last few days about how the election victory was won. About the focus groups, about listening to Labour voters. About the Get Brexit Done slogan. But Sun Tzu Cummings also encouraged Labour to hang themselves. The Tories kicked off addressing the number one concern of ordinary people, tackling crime. Then came the NHS – more nurses and hospitals. This was a carefully set trap, getting the Marxists in Labour to outbid the Tories on spending to patently ridiculous levels. Having set down that route, they added nationalising water, trains and broadband. Everyone then knew that Labour promises were not only a joke, but downright dangerous. The Conservative’s promises were just deliverable, particularly since they were prepared to sacrifice an earlier promise to cut corporation tax.

What now?

Obviously, Britain will leave the EU on or before 31 January next. All of 2020 subsequently is set to be taken up in trade negotiations with the EU, which will not be extended. The first post-Brexit negotiation of note will be over fisheries policies and the right of access to British waters for EU fishing vessels, due to be agreed by 1 July, to be implemented after the transition period.

The hope initially expressed by establishment figures in both Westminster and Brussels was that with a thumping majority the Conservatives will soften their Brexit demands, because it is no longer beholden to the ERG, an alliance of free marketeers in the Conservative parliamentary party. This being the case, it was argued, British demands for a return to total sovereignty over British fishing waters can be compromised in the context of wider negotiations. This is what always happens in Brussels, and the establishment on both sides assume the British will continue to play that game. But the Remainers have not been paying attention: the way in which the Conservative rebels were dealt with is the new negotiating philosophy.

Far from taking the opportunity of a large Conservative majority for the British to soften their stance in negotiations, all the indications (for those that bother to look rather than just assume) are that the British will take a firmer negotiating stance. If the EU tries to blackmail the UK over fisheries – France being an obvious instigator given her powerful fishing lobby, and Spain over Gibraltar which has nothing to do with fisheries – the British will be prepared to walk away from negotiations, because at that point, the Political Declaration will be breeched, not by the British, but by the EU.

In truth, the negotiating power has shifted firmly to Britain from the EU. Brussels will be dealing with a new anti-establishment administration, unsympathetic with the Brussels bureaucratic administration and determined to free the UK from as much of it as possible. The Brits are now focused, and Sun Tzu strategically clever with it.

Dominic Cummings possesses an exceptional intellect. His tutor in ancient history at Oxford, Robin Lane-Fox, reckoned him to be altogether in a different league to Boris Johnson. But Johnson is no slouch either and with backgrounds in the classics the two work well together. Other notable brains are Jacob Rees-Mogg, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab and Priti Patel. Collectively, the leading lights in the Johnson cabinet stand head and shoulders intellectually above any other cabinet seen for a long time.

The ERG, whose members are drawn from the pool of Conservative MPs which shares a free market approach over statist intervention, has enjoyed a substantial influx of members from the new parliamentary intake. A definite shift towards free market one nation conservatism has taken place. This is not what an arrogant establishment readily understands, nor wants. In the corridors of Westminster, establishment figures will now have an added concern: the threat to their bureaucratic power and even their jobs. They are used to a Downing Street whose time horizon is never more than a few days. It will now actively plan for the future.

The new political and economic philosophies

Leading members of the new cabinet are philosophically free traders, whose politics favour lower government intervention and lower taxes, fostering entrepreneurial ambition and encouraging wealth creation. A smaller government focused on outcomes will be a lesser burden on productive society and also provide the means of affording the best public services on a cost-effective basis. We have heard similar intentions before from incoming Conservatives, but this time there is a greater determination for it to be delivered, and with Cummings in charge of the Spads, it is perhaps more likely to succeed.

While we can only guess at his true understanding of the benefits of free markets over socialism, Boris has dropped a few clues that he has some knowledge of the economic issues involved. He quoted Bastiat’s broken window fallacy in an article for the Daily Telegraph on 15 September 2017, which only a genuine free trader who has discarded Keynesian intervention will understand. Equally encouraging was his remark at a private function in June 2018, when he said “F… business”, which was aimed at business lobbyists, otherwise known as crony capitalists seeking preference over everyone else.

These hopes are usually buried by the reality of government. But there is some hope that over the course of this parliament and next the UK will gradually free the economy from overbearing government intervention. While also being an advocate for the private sector, Cummings has a managerial approach. From his writings, we know he is a believer in the use of soft power to enhance a nation’s prospects. He quotes Thucydides, who described Athens as the school for Greece, with respect to his ambition that Britain should be the school for the world. In other words, Britain will need to foster and develop the highest levels of education, technological knowhow and entrepreneurial opportunity if it is to progress as a nation, relative to the powers of tomorrow such as China and India.

Having grabbed the reins of government, Cummings intends to finance his objectives by slashing bureaucracy and centralising political power in the hands of a few key players. Hence his intention that the cabinet be substantially reduced from the current thirty-three members.

What appears to be absent, if only because the subject has not yet arisen, is an understanding of money, the relationship between budgets, trade balances, savers, and the credit cycle. Generally, politicians delegate monetary matters to the central bank. This government will be no different. But the current governor of the Bank of England is due to retire at the end of January, a date that may be shifted because it now coincides with Brexit. We can be sure the necessary qualification will a candidate who is acceptable to the world of central banking; in other words, another inflationist.

Sajid Javid, Chancellor of the Exchequer, says he intends to borrow to finance infrastructure spending, while keeping a tight rein on current spending. Every incoming finance minister says something similar, betraying a Keynesian approach to the relationship between government and the wider economy. Besides ignoring Bastiat’s parable on broken windows, any increase in government borrowing not met by an increase in savers’ savings is inflationary. If Javid truly believes he can separate current from investment spending and therefore follow sound money policies, he fails to understand economics at its most basic level. Doubtless Cummings would sweep this concern to one side, on the basis that investment in infrastructure, particularly in northern constituencies, is necessary to convert regional voters fully from Labour to Conservative and secure office for the whole decade. And in time, it would be covered by funds released through more effective administration.

The establishment is due for an enormous shake-up

To understand in a little more detail what the Johnson administration plans to do, we need to take a step back. Over much of 2019, Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and a few others were actively planning to oust Mrs May and replace her with Boris. In its early stages, the plans had little support in the parliamentary party, though Boris was wildly popular with grass-roots Conservatives. But when Mrs May was forced to defer Brexit until after the EU elections in May, Nigel Farage swept the board in those elections with his Brexit Party, and it was clear that the Conservatives, without a firm Brexit commitment, would be wiped out in Westminster. Mrs May was forced to resign, Johnson’s campaign gathered momentum, and he became Prime Minister in July.

Three days before becoming Prime Minister, Johnson invited Dominic Cummings and his original Vote Leave team to work again with him to deliver Brexit. Cummings was appointed a Special Adviser (Spad) to the Prime Minister and is now the chief Spad, controlling all ministerial Spads across government. As a former senior civil servant put it, “Mr Cummings told all Whitehall’s Spads that he was now effectively their line manager, rather than their Secretaries of State.” It is no exaggeration to say that Cummings now exercises more control over the permanent civil service than any permanent secretary, as well as a high degree of control over elected politicians appointed as ministers.

With Johnson’s support, Cummings has plans for radically reforming the establishment. In a lecture given at the Institute for Public Policy Research in 2014, he said his wish list would include rule changes to enable ministers based in the House of Lords to be questioned in the House of Commons. He believed the Cabinet should be shrunk from some thirty ministers to six or seven. When he was Michael Gove’s Spad at Education, he wanted to push through reforms to ensure that less money was spent on process and more on objectives, but he lacked the power for wholesale reform. He ensured so far as he was able that spending was on improvements to the education system instead of ministerial flights of fancy, from which Gove, to his credit, was generally free. Cumming’s strategic success at Education is now planned to be extended throughout all ministerial departments, and the money saved should be considerable, enough to meet spending objectives and provide tax cuts in due course.

The problem with the civil service is that during the Blair years it became overly bureaucratic. Tony Blair’s government paid enormous sums to management consultants to advise and implement improvements. Unfortunately, payments to consultants became linked to the length of time they spent on contracts, time which was extended by introducing detailed and procedure-heavy checks and balances on every aspect of government spending. It extended to contracts given to the private sector, forcing enormous bureaucracy onto projects such as HS2 (the high-speed rail link from London to the North) which before any track has been laid is already due to run substantially over budget. A simple task which should cost in the low hundreds becomes thousands.

As Cummings put it in his speech to the Progressive Policy Think Tank in November 2014, employment policy in the civil service encourages failure. There is very little incentive to reduce regulation, and no incentive to save money because the Treasury is primarily interested in power over the system. Cummings says that civil servants are overpaid for what they are meant to do, are interested in process and empire building, and never take the blame for things that go wrong, which they do more often than not.

If Cummings gets his way (and he is the most powerful operator in the new administration) the civil service will see substantial change, leading to less bureaucratic waste and better decision making. The all-encompassing power of the Treasury will be broken. After Brexit, we can also expect a radically slimmed down cabinet, giving greater control at the centre of government, but at the same time power is likely to be devolved from the Westminster establishment to the regions. Electoral reform will follow, with a planned reduction in Westminster seats from 650 to 600, favouring the Conservatives, and the Fixed Term Parliament Act rescinded. Reform of the House of Lords, particularly given their Brexit blocking tactics, seems likely to be on the agenda as well.

 

The establishment has lost and will be heavily punished. The influence and cost of bureaucracy will be curtailed, and the costs released will be apportioned between final objectives (police, nurses, hospitals etc.) and cuts in taxation. The objective is to reverse the Pareto 80% spent on process and 20% on final objectives. If it can be achieved, the prospects for Britain relative to other nations in the EU, who are bound by their bureaucracy, will improve greatly.

Public investment policy

Despite senior ministers being free traders at heart, government plans for intervention will increase its role in the economy. The closest parallel is probably China, where its government gives private individuals and their businesses a framework of five-year plans within which to develop. Instead of five-year plans, the government works to an electoral cycle of five years with no certainty of continuation. The first priority will be to deliver infrastructure and regional government hubs to the North, with particular emphasis on newly converted constituencies to ensure future loyalty.

Transport, better broadband and mobile signals are on the agenda. State support for research will allow technology hubs to be devolved outside the London-Oxford-Cambridge triangle, beefing up the northern universities. Cummings is known to favour copying the US’s Advanced Projects Research Agency, designed to develop military technology, with a British equivalent pursuing a wider commercial objective.

Johnson is also a keen proponent of freeports, where goods can be moved in and out without paying customs duties. Alternatively, businesses working within a freeport designated area benefit from duty free imports and a cluster effect, through the attraction of other businesses. Freeports, which include airports, are a simple way to target local development.

A credit crisis is due during trade negotiations

While the Johnson/Cummings plans hold much promise, there is another exogenous factor likely to threaten them. The global credit cycle appears to be on the turn, and with it will come a systemic crisis.

There are signs, for example the repo crisis in New York and mounting problems in Eurozone banks, that the periodic credit crisis that always follows a period of credit expansion is imminent. If it breaks before 31 January, the government will undoubtedly face pressure to put Brexit on hold. The Bank of England in particular, and the civil servants in the Treasury will almost certainly try to persuade the government to extend the implementation period and even reverse Brexit, but with Johnson and Cummings in charge Brexit is unlikely to be delayed. However, Britain may still be faced with contractual obligations to the EU in the event of an EU banking crisis during the negotiating period following Brexit. There can be little doubt it would be an enormous mess, likely to undermine the course of planned government spending.

The blame-game will then commence. With Britain having established that you can after all leave Hotel California, the political adhesion that binds EU member states together will almost certainly become unglued by economic reality. A rational expectation would be that mounting problems would encourage a more realistic EU policy regarding Brexit and trade negotiations. But the relationship between the EU’s panjandrums and reality is barely tangential, so it would be sensible to expect talks to break down in these circumstances.

Therefore, in the event of a global or European credit and systemic crisis taking place a so-called no-deal Brexit becomes an increased possibility. It is unlikely to worry the new Conservative government, which is inclined towards free trade anyway. It’s just good politics to have someone else to blame.

END
UK/USA
Boris Johnson’s victory will no doubt pave the way for better relations and a better trade deals with the USA once Britain removes the shackles from the EU
(Gatestone)

Boris Johnson’s Victory Heralds A Golden Era In US-UK Relations

Authored by Con Coughlin via The Gatestone Institute,

Boris Johnson has only been back in Downing Street a few days following his stunning victory in Britain’s general election, but there are already early signs that his premiership will preside over a dramatic revival in transatlantic relations not seen since the heyday of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

First and foremost, the British prime minister has made it abundantly clear that his first priority will be to break the Brexit deadlock that has effectively paralysed British politics, and the country’s ability to make its voice heard on the international stage, at the earliest possible opportunity, thus opening the way for a trade deal with Washington.

 

As a start, Mr Johnson has committed his new government to fulfil its election pledge to complete Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union by the end of January. Furthermore, he will enshrine in law his promise that the complicated trade negotiations that are due to take place next year to finalise Britain’s future trading relationship with the EU bloc will be completed by the end of 2020.

Critics of Mr Johnson’s ambitious programme to free Britain from the EU’s shackles and negotiate a new network of global trade deals have argued that completing the process of establishing a new trading framework with the EU will take much longer than a year, especially in view of the EU’s notoriously slow approach to completing such transactions. The critics point out, for example, that the Canada-EU trade deal took seven years to negotiate and was 22 years in the making.

By enshrining Britain’s ultimate departure date in law, Mr Johnson has effectively silenced those critics, as well as sending a clear declaration of intent to Brussels that Britain aims to complete the withdrawal process by the end of next year, with or without a deal.

The fact, moreover, that Mr Johnson now enjoys a comfortable majority of 80 seats in the newly-constituted House of Commons means that he will no longer be subjected to procedural legislative obstructions from die-hard Remainers, as was very much in evidence during the death throes of the last parliament.

Thus Mr Johnson’s reinvigorated Conservative Party finds itself in a position to shape Britain’s destiny for the foreseeable future, with rebuilding relations between Washington and London seen as being one of Mr Johnson’s first priorities.

During the tenure of Theresa May, Mr Johnson’s hapless predecessor as prime minister, relations between Downing Street and the White House became strained, to say the least. As one senior former member of Donald Trump’s foreign policy team recently told me, “By the end of Mrs May’s premiership relations with the US had fallen to an all-time low”.

 

The first indication of a revival in relations between Washington and London came when Mr Trump was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Mr Johnson on his historic win — he secured the largest Conservative majority since Mrs Thatcher’s third election victory in 1987 — and immediately promised to strike a “massive” new trade deal with the UK post-Brexit. The US president said a future US-UK trade agreement has “the potential to be far bigger and more lucrative” than any deal that could have been made with the EU.

Indeed, with Mr Johnson assured of being Britain’s prime minister for the next five years, and Mr Trump well-placed to secure re-election in next year’s presidential election contest, there is every prospect that the two leaders could herald a new golden era of transatlantic relations not seen since the alliance of Mrs Thatcher and US President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.

There will, of course, be numerous political obstacles that will have to be overcome regarding issues where the two men have opposing views, such as the controversial nuclear deal with Iran. While Mr Trump is determined to pressure Tehran with punitive economic sanctions, Mr Johnson still remains committed to working with other European powers, such as France and Germany, to save the nuclear deal.

Yet, compared with the calamitous impact a victory for Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose politics is defined by his visceral anti-Americanism, would have had on transatlantic relations, Mr Johnson’s return to Downing Street will have been greeted with enormous relief in the White House, as it means Washington now has a firm ally in London, someone who is committed to breathing new life into the vital and long-standing partnership between Britain and America.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SAUDI ARABIA

5 patsies who probably had nothing to do with the Khashoggi murder will be sentenced to death for that murder..royal aids go free..

(zerohedge)

5 Sentenced To Death For Murder Of Saudi Dissident Jamal Khashoggi; Royal Aids Go Free

The criminal trials of the 11 patsies men formally accused of participating in the killing and dismemberment of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi are now over, and the end result was exactly what most expected.

That is, several royal aids implicated in the killing were let go without punishment, while five others who are probably only tangentially related to the case (if at all) have been sentenced to death.

And in Saudi Arabia, a sentence of death means only one thing: A very public beheading.

According to Bloomberg, the Saudi court said it didn’t have enough evidence to convict two top officials who are close to Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman of any involvement in the crime.

Meanwhile, three of the 11 men were given a total of 24 years in prison

, according to a statement from the Saudis that was read out loud at the public prosecutor’s office on Monday after the sentences had been handed down.

Jamal Khashoggi

Two senior figures who were fired from their posts in the wake of the scandal, which briefly strained Saudi Arabia’s relations with allies around the world, but particularly in the West (and prompted Wall Street and corporate America to skip MBS’s “Davos in the Desert” conference in 2018, though they returned the following year) were cleared of all wrongdoing.

Saud al-Qahtani, removed from his role as a top adviser to Prince Mohammed after the killing, was interrogated by Saudi investigators, but no evidence was ever found against him, according to Deputy Attorney General Shalaan Shalaan. Ahmed Alassiri, a top intelligence official, was also removed from his position. Both men were found not guilty by the court.

Most of those arrested in relation to Khashoggi’s murder inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul will eventually go free, but most members of the global community expected that. Most doubted the process from the beginning, and figured the Saudis would allow the men truly responsible for masterminding Khashoggi’s murder walk free, while saddling a group of patsies with death sentences.

After all, the CIA is reportedly convinced that MbS himself ordered Khashoggi’s killing, and that members of the “death squad” who carried it out were hand-picked by some of the Crown Prince’s closest aids.

A UN special report even claimed that Saudi agents were recorded by Turkish intelligence discussing how to dismember Khashoggi’s body, and even referred to KHashoggi as a “sacrificial lamb” before he entered the consulate, undermining the kingdom’s claims that the murder wasn’t part of the original plan. Though most doubted that explanation from the beginning.

What did Khashoggi do to make MbS so angry? Other than writing his moderately critical op-eds, it’s not exactly clear.

Khashoggi was once a government insider, but he became a staunch critic of the royal family after leaving the country and settling in Virginia back in 2017, where he began occasionally writing columns for the Washington Post, where he was edited by Karen Attiah.

According to the FT, the trial began in January, and nine sessions were held before Monday’s sentencing. Representatives of the Turkish government, Saudi human rights groups and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council were allowed to attend the trial, which was otherwise closed to the public.

It’s not clear when the death sentences will be carried out.

end
Turkey/Libya
As promised, Turkey’s incursion into the Mediterranean has having consequences.  Hafter seizes a Turish vessel but it was released.  Erdogan promises a deepened military role in Liya
(zerohedge)

After Haftar Seizes Turkish Vessel, Erdogan Deepens Military Role In Libya, Angering Russia

As we predicted the Libyan war 2.0 has spilled into the Mediterranean and now standings on the brink of becoming a major renewed international proxy conflict bringing in regional powers, especially Turkey, Egypt, and potentially Russia.

The pro-Haftar Libyan National Army (LNA), based in the war-torn country’s east, announced late Saturday it seized a Turkish vessel and briefly detained several Turkish crew memberswhile the freighter was searched for weapons. “A vessel under the flag of Grenada, with a team of Turkish citizens on board, was detained,” the LNA press service said. It was seized “because it entered Libya’s territorial waters without prior permission,” the LNA spokesman added.

As of early Monday, the ship and its crew were released, according to the AP, amid soaring tensions over a controversial maritime border deal involving Tripoli and Ankara, which both gives Turkey oil and gas exploration rights in waters claimed by Haftar’s Benghazi-based administration, and expands military cooperation between Erdogan and the Tripoli GNA government.

 

Via the AFP: The Turkish ship, registered in Grenada, was taken to the port of Ras Al-Helal near the eastern city of Derna.

It’s not the first time the rebel LNA has seized Turkish vessels and their crew and it likely won’t be the last, given Haftar has attempted to enforce a No Fly Zone and has long vowed to seize any Turkish vessels off the coast, given Turkey is militarily backing the UN-recognized government in Tripoli.

Turkey’s leaders suggest Ankara is currently upping its support to the GNA, sending military planes with troops and armor amid Haftar’s offensive against the capital. Undoubtedly, Turkey has been the most aggressive backer of Tripoli, offering military equipment and even air power, while the UAE has provided most weaponry for Haftar’s army, also with assistance Egypt, Saudia Arabia and even Russia (namely, via mercenaries allegedly with the Wagner group).

On Saturday Turkish parliament formally ratified the security and military cooperation deal with Tripoli.

 

Via TRT World: “Turkey’s deal with Libya’s UN-recognised government in Tripoli is a signal to other Mediterranean states that Ankara can block their gas routes.”

According to Al Jazeera, this has raised eyebrows in Moscow, which is among a growing chorus of countries condemning Turkey’s deeper intervention in the conflict:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said Turkey could deploy troops to Libya in support of the GNA but no request has yet been made. He said on Friday that Turkey could not remain silent over Russian-backed mercenaries backing Haftar’s forces.

Russia, meanwhile, said it was very concerned about the possibility of Turkey deploying troops in Libya and that the security deal raised many questions for Moscow.

Erdogan will discuss Ankara’s potential troop deployment to Libya with Russian President Vladimir Putin during talks in Turkey next month, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, while Washington officially recognizes the GNA, the Trump administration has for months verbalized support for Haftar, long seen as the ‘CIA’s man in Libya’. “Haftar is nothing but a pirate,” Erdogan said earlier this year after six Turkish sailors were briefly detained by pro-Haftar forces.

And this latest weekend Turkish freighter incident will likely only increase the Turkish military presence, also as Turkey could be set to explore Libyan waters as part of the recent oil and gas deal with the GNA.

Last week reports in regional media said Turkey is set to establish a military base in Libya, which includes a special “quick reaction force” which can deploy rapidly if requested by the Libyan government.

 

Turkish troops are reportedly being readies for a broader Libya deployment, via the AP.

Addressing the controversial deal in statements made last week President Erdogan told a pro-government news channel“We will be defending the rights of Libya and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.” This after unconfirmed reports in Arabic media that Turkish special forces have already landed in Tripoli.

And crucially for the prospect of a broader war, neighboring Egypt has condemned the Turkey-Tripoli GNA deal as “illegitimate” and has even signaled its own military intervention could come.

 

Turkey’s Erdogan and the LNA’s Gen. Haftar file image.

Last Tuesday Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi warned in the wake of the Turkey-Libya agreement, “We will not allow anyone to control Libya… it is a matter of Egyptian national security.”

So there it is: a multi-party conflict is emerging as Benghazi and Tripoli continue their years-long battle for the spoils of post-Gaddafi Libya supposedly “liberated” by NATO in 2011. This pits Egypt against Turkey, and Turkey against Russia — not to mention Greece against Turkey and Haftar, as Athens is already seeking to block Turkish oil and gas vessels from encroaching in southern Mediterranean waters.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

The uSA is losing its hegemony power as Europe shuns the uSA over the Nord Stream 2 project

(Tom Luongo)

Nord Stream Sanctions: A Sad Coda To U.S. Foreign Policy

Authored by Tom Luongo, via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

The U.S. crossed the Rubicon this week. And I’m not talking about the ridiculous impeachment of President Trump for doing his job.

I’m talking about passing the NDAA with provisions to sanction ‘from hell’ anyone associated with completion of the Nordstream 2 pipelineThe U.S. is now openly dismissive as a matter of law any ally or partner who engages in economic activity it disapproves of.

 

We do this all the time with countries we consider rivals or who have committed ‘human rights abuses’ or contravened international laws or societal norms.

But this is about a simple commercial transaction. Yes, it has geopolitical implications, but those are secondary. No one will be harmed by Nord Stream 2. The real harm is to the U.S.’s ability to bring political pressure on European countries to adopt its anti-Russian policies.

This pipeline is, ultimately, none of the U.S.’s business. It is an energy project openly entered into by six companies in accordance with EU regulations (which, thanks to U.S. pressure, changed during its construction) to provide energy security to Germany.

Germany needs the pipeline, so does most of Europe through reselling the gas. The U.S. takes this step now in imperial fashion because everything else has failed.

It presupposes that Russia and Europe are enemies. They are not. And if Ted Cruz (R-Oil Country) wants to define their relationship for them in that way, then he should introduce a declaration of war on Russia and force a NATO resolution to that effect.

He’s not doing that. He’s simply creating an international incident and ensuring the breakup of NATO that much more quickly.

Seriously, are these people that brain dead?

I think so.

And that should tell you how important this issue is not only to Russia but to Germany and the EU.

Europe is willing to defy the U.S. on Nordstream to the point of forcing the U.S. to openly and nakedly destroy its reputation with European contractors and governments to stop one pipeline in a place where multiple gas pipelines will be needed for future growth.

This is the diplomatic equivalent of the nuclear option.

And the neocons in the Senate just pushed the button.

Europe understands what this is really about, the U.S. retaining its imperial position as the policy setter for all the world. If it can set energy policy for Europe then it can set everything else.

And it’s clear that the leadership in Europe is done with that status quo.

The Trump administration from the beginning has used NATO as an excuse to mask its real intentions towards Europe, which is continued domination of its policies.

Trump complains that the U.S. pays into NATO to protect Europe from Russia but then Europe buys its energy from Russia.

That’s unfair, Donald complains, like a little bitch, frankly, even though he right on the surface.

But if the recent NATO summit is any indication, Europe is no longer interested in NATO performing that function. French President Emmanuel Macron wants NATO re-purposed to fight global terror, a terrible idea.

NATO should just be ended.

But you’ll notice how Trump doesn’t talk about that anymore. He wants more billions pumped into NATO while the U.S. still sets its policies. This is not a boondoggle for the MIC as much as it’s a Sword of Damocles to hold over Europe’s head.

The U.S.’s involvement in should be ended immediately, the troops brought home and the billions of dollars spent here as opposed to occupying most of Europe to point missiles at a Russia wholly uninterested in imperial ambitions no less harboring any of them.

And Trump also knows this but thinks stopping Nordstream 2 is the price Europe has to pay him for this privilege. It’s insane.

The time has come for Europe to act independently from the U.S. As much as I despise the EU, to untangle it from the U.S. on energy policy is the means by which for it to then deal with its problems internally. It can’t do that while the U.S. is threatening it. Circling the wagons against the immediate threat, as it were.

And that means protecting its companies and citizens from the economic depredations of power-mad neoconservatives in the U.S. Senate like Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham.

Allseas, the Swiss company laying the pipe for Nordstream 2, has halted construction for now, awaiting instructions from the U.S. Gazprom will likely step in to finish the job and Germany will green light any of the necessary permits to get the pipeline done.

Those people will be put out of work just in time for Christmas, turning thousands of people against the U.S. Commerce drives people together, politics drives them apart.

But, at the same time, the urgency to finish Nordstream 2 on time is wholly irrelevant now because Ukraine and Russia came to terms on a new five-year gas transit contract. This ensures Gazprom can meet its contractual deliveries to Europe that no one thought could be done on time.

But when the Nazi threat to Zelensky meeting with Merkel, Macron and Putin in Paris failed to materialize, a gas deal was on the horizon.

And, guess what? U.S. LNG will still not have the marginal lever over Europe’s energy policy because of that. Putin and Zelensky outmaneuvered Cruz, Graham and Trump on this.

Because that’s what this boils down to. By keeping Russian gas out of Europe, it was supposed to constrain not only Russia’s growth but also Europe’s. Because then the U.S. government can control who and how much energy can make it into European markets at critical junctures politically.

That was the Bolton Doctrine to National Security. And that doctrine brought nothing but misery to millions.

And if you look back over the past five years of U.S./EU relations you will see this gambit clearly for what it was, a way to continue European vassalage at the hands of the U.S. by forcing market share of U.S. providers into European markets.

 

Again, it gets back to Trump’s ideas about Energy Dominance and becoming the supplier of the marginal erg of energy to important economies around the world.

The smart play for the EU now that the gas transit deal is in place is to threaten counter-sanctions against the U.S. and bar all LNG shipments into Europe. Gas prices are at historic lows, gas supplies are overflowing thanks to fears of a deal not being in place.

So, a three to six month embargo of U.S. LNG into Europe to bleed off excess supply while Nordstream 2 is completed would be the right play politically.

But, in reality, they won’t need to, because the U.S. won’t be able to import much into Europe under current prices and market conditions. And once Nordstream 2 is complete, LNG sales to Europe should crater.

In the end, I guess it’s too bad for Ted Cruz that economics and basic human ingenuity are more powerful than legislatures. Because Nordstream 2 will be completed. Turkstream’s other trains into Europe will be built. Venezuela will continue rebuilding its energy sector with Russian and Chinese help.

There is no place for U.S. LNG in Europe outside of the Poles literally burning money virtue signaling their Russophobia.

Nordstream 2 was a response to the revolt in Ukraine, to replace any potential losses in market share to Europe. Now Russia will have what it had before passing through Ukraine along with Nordstream 2. By 2024 there will be at least two trains from Turkstream coming into Europe.

Iran will keep expanding exports, settling its oil and gas trade through Russian banks. And the U.S. will continue to fulminate and make itself even more irrelevant over time.

What men like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump refuse to understand is that when you go nuclear you can’t ever go back. If you threaten the nuclear option, there’s no fall back position.

And when those that you threaten with annihilation survive they are made all the stronger for passing through the eye of the needle.

Looking at Gazprom’s balance sheet right now, that’s my take.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon to get the lowdown on pipeline politics and the men who play them badly.  Install the Brave Browser to resist being deplatformed for talking about them.

END

Expect More Writedowns From Oil Majors

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

On Friday, Royal Dutch Shell announced that it would take a $1.7-$2.3 billion write down for the fourth quarter, another financial blow to an industry dealing with oversupply and low prices.

The write down is the result of the bad “macro outlook,” Shell said in a press release, which refers to the slowdown in the global economy, weak demand growth and relatively low prices for gas, oil and for refining margins. “Additional well write-offs in the range of $100-200 million are expected compared to the fourth quarter 2018. No cash impact is expected,” Shell said in a statement. The company’s share price in London fell 1 percent on the news.

Shell didn’t offer a lot of details, but hinted that several of its segments would be impacted by a deterioration in the outlook. “Chemicals cracker and intermediate margins are expected to be materially lower than the third quarter 2019 due to the continued weak macro environment,” Shell said, for example.

Shell also said that it would keep its fully-year capex for 2019 at the low end of its original guidance of $24-29 billion.

The announcement comes a little over a week after Chevron revealed a much larger $10-$11-billion write down. At the time, analysts had warned that Chevron would not be alone, and that there would be more charges related to companies having overpaid for assets years ago, only to watch the market deteriorate. All the while, the industry – at least in the aggregate – has failed to prove that it can turn a profit from shale drilling. Since October, Repsol, BP, Equinor and Halliburton have written down a combined $20 billion in assets.

As Chevron’s impairment suggests, the segment of the oil and gas industry that is arguably struggling the most is shale gas drillers in Appalachia. That accounted for a big chunk of Chevron’s impairment.

The reason is that gas prices have plunged in 2019, which follows years of checkered performances from gas drillers. Things kind of fell apart this year as investors lost patience and the bottom fell out in the gas market. Gas is oversupplied and drillers now feel compelled to cutback. Production growth has already come to a halt and could begin to decline.

Looking forward, many analysts have few reasons to think that gas prices will rebound, with the slump expected to last into the early 2020s. According to the Wall Street Journal, ExxonMobil and BP are the most exposed, each with about 12 percent of their total production coming from U.S. gas. Chevron and Shell only have about 5 percent of their total production coming from American gas fields.

More write downs could be in the offing from the oil majors, the WSJ reported.

Meanwhile, the market seems to be excited by the OPEC+ deal. Bullish bets on oil futures surged in the week following the announcement from Vienna. Big money is betting on a revival.

But so, perhaps, are the drillers themselves. Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the oil rig count surged by 18 for the week ending on December 20, after rising by 4 the week earlier. Gas rigs still fell, however, down another 4 last week.

The huge jump in oil rigs is perhaps a sign that oil drillers sense another inflection point in the market, with prices slightly on the rise. It’s only one data point, so it remains to be seen if this is a lasting trend, but E&Ps may once again throw more rigs into the field in response to an uptick in prices.

They have repeatedly promised that “this time will be different,” pledging to produce positive cash flow from aggressive drilling. If the shale industry restarts drilling, will it be different this time?

END

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1077 UP .0002 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.41 UP 0.017 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2976   UP   0.0002  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3151 DOWN .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 42.19 POINTS OR 1.40% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 35.06 POINTS OR 0.13%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,43%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 35.06 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.19 POINTS OR 1.40%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 43% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED PU 4.48  POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1483.70

silver:$17.35-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.92% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.34 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.71 UP 2 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.42% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.44%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,43 UP 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 99 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.24% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.67% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1087  UP     .0011 or 11 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.39 DOWN .002 OR YEN UP 2  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2921 DOWN .0056 POUND UP 56  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 19 basis points to 1.3167

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0128    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0172  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9484 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.92 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.35 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.72 UP 3  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 41.11  0.46%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 17.92 POINTS OR .13%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 7.84 POINTS 0.13%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 15.90 POINTS or 0.16%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 106.22 POINTS OR 0.44%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 60.57 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 66.37 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    62.18  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.11 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 11 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  60.72//

 

 

BRENT :  66.58

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.93//PLUS ONE BASIS PT…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.35//PLUS ONE BASIS PT..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1093 ( UP 17   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.39 UP .007 (YEN DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.65 DOWN 3 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2939 DOWN 38 BASIS  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9490

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.32   DOWN 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3149 DOWN 5 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0128  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0079 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.24%

 

The Dow closed UP 96.44 POINTS OR 0.34%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 20.69 POINTS OR 0.23%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.79 CLOSED UP .28

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.908%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

S&P Scores Longest Streak Of Record Highs Since 1998

“This is madness”…

The S&P 500 has made 8 record intraday highs in a row – that is the longest streak since March 1998 (when the S&P managed 14 days of record intraday highs in a row)…

Friday saw a massive inflow of funds into SPY – the largest S&P 500 ETF – the biggest inflow since Dec 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, Nasdaq up 9 days in a row – the longest streak of gains since July 2017…now the most overbought since Jan 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, much of this is helped by the sudden massive burst of Fed liquidity provided to ensure the repocalypse doesn’t happen into year-end. What few remember is that The Fed has done this before – in 1999/2000, The Fed announced special funding facilities because of fears surrounding the Y2K roll… and we know what happened right after that facility was lifted…

Source: Bloomberg

h/t @JulianM2

*  *  *

Chinese stocks had an ugly session, extending Friday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets were mixed with FTSE higher and Italy lower…

Source: Bloomberg

US markets were higher today early on, led by Dow Industrials (which lifted on Boeing’s gains), but faded broadly into the close…

Boeing’s CEO is fired and the stocks jumps 3%, adding 60-plus points to The Dow…

Overall volume was around 30% below average

Source: Bloomberg

After a big week for Defensives last week, Cyclicals outperformed today…

Source: Bloomberg

Tesla stocks topped $420… but bonds ain’t buying it…

Source: Bloomberg

After the expiration chaos at the open on Friday, VIX has gone higher along with stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were uniformly 1-2bps higher…

Source: Bloomberg

With a weak 2Y auction bid-to-cover, and 30Y pushed gently up to last week’s yield resistance…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond speculators added to their shorts last week, pushing back near record shorts; and at the same time, eurodollar futures specs slashed their speculative positions by the largest amount in history… (reducing rate-cutting bets by the most on record)

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended unchanged, rollercoasting in a narrow range intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan drifted lower (totally decoupled from US stocks post-trade-deal)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable continued to sink post-election euphoria, breaking below 1.30…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos pumped and dumped intraday with Bitcoin and Litecoin outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin neared $7700 intraday, almost $1300 off the lows last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver ripped higher on the day, and Gold gained as copper and crude eked out tiny gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver surged back above $17.50…

Silver has dramatically outperformed gold in the last few days, now at its richest relative to gold since Nov 7th…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Finally, we laughably see Apple’s market cap has increased almost$600 billion in 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

As its earnings expectations have been anything but higher…

Source: Bloomberg

But with the S&P up 28% YTD, US macro data is practically unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

As The Fed balance sheet has now risen at the fastest YoY pace since Aug 2015

Source: Bloomberg

But, it’s not QE4

Even though it shifted sentiment from “Extreme Fear” to “Extreme Greed” in that time…

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Durable goods orders unexpectedly plunged in November and most of this is due to Boeing

(zerohedge)

US Durables Goods Orders Unexpectedly Plunge In November As Boeing Backlash Hits

After a modest rebound in October (from September’s contraction), analysts expected a continued acceleration in durable goods orders in preliminary November data, but instead it collapsed!

Flash November Durable Goods Orders were expected to rise 1.5% MoM, but instead they tumbled 2.0% MoM, sending the year-over-year collapse to -5.7% – the worst since July 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

Core Durable goods orders (ex transports) were unchanged in November (worse than the 0.2% MoM expectation), indicating the headline drop was due to a slump in military aircraft and a drop in civilian planes.

The headline durable-goods figure was pressured by a decline in orders of commercial aircraft despite Boeing Co. reporting earlier this month that it received 63 orders in November compared with just 10 in October. Bookings for military hardware plunged 35.6%, the most since February 2017, while defense aircraft orders slid 72.7%.

Source: Bloomberg

The proxy for capex, Capital Goods orders ex-aircraft, spiked in October but slowed to just 0.1% MoM rise in early November data; and capital goods shipments ex-Air dropped 0.3% MoM  (notably worse than the 0.0% expectation).

Combined with a decrease in core shipments, the figures highlight a lack of appetite for capital expenditures, with profit growth cooling and business sentiment still subdued amid global demand concerns.

end
USA new home sales disappoint
(zerohedge)

US New Home Sales Disappoint As Median Price Soars

Despite homebuilder sentiment soaring to 20-year highs, existing home sales slipped unexpectedly in November and new home sales are also expected to decline marginally MoM, but instead surprised to the upside with a 1.3% MoM.

However, the beat was due to a major downward revision from -0.7% MoM to -2.7% MoM for October.

Year-over-year, new home sales growth slowed to +16.9%

Source: Bloomberg

Due to the downward revisions, new home sales are following the trend of existing home sales lower…

Source: Bloomberg

In the three months through November, purchases averaged a 720,000 pace, the strongest in 12 years.

Purchases of new homes rose in two of four U.S. regions, led by a 52.4% surge in the Northeast and a 7.5% gain in the West, which recorded its highest sales level in two years.

But, more problematically, the median home price soared 7.2% to $330.8k – the highest since April…

21% of new homes sold in Nov. cost more than $500,000, up from 19% prior month.

Affordability remains an issue.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Amazing: Mnuchin explains the hoarding of 100 dollar bills and precious metals.

(zerohedge)

Steven Mnuchin Explains Why $1.5 Trillion In $100 Bills Have Disappeared

Last week we reported that something strange was going on at the same time that central banks are injecting $100 billion each month in electronic money to crush volatility and ramp markets: a similar amount in physical currency and precious metals was literally disappearing.

The mystery, in a nutshell, was as follows: while banks are printing more bank notes than ever, these seem to be “disappearing off the face of the earth” and nobody knows where or why, or as the WSJ notes, “central banks don’t know where they have gone, or why, and are playing detective, trying to crack the same mystery.”

And while readers can read up much more on the topic of disappearing hard assets here, a few days after, Fox Business picked up on this thread, writing that almost $1.5 trillion of the world’s physical cash, with $100 dollar bills making up the vast majority, was reportedly unaccounted for.

So what happened to the money?

To get to the bottom of this mystery, this was the question FOX Business anchor Lou Dobbs asked the man who literally signs every single US dollar bill, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The response” “Literally, a lot of these $100 bills are sitting in bank vaults all over the world,” Mnuchin said.

Mnuchin pointed to the negative interest rates causing people to turn to American dollars as a solid investment.

The dollar is the reserve currency of the world, and everybody wants to hold dollars,” Mnuchin said on “Lou Dobbs Tonight.” “And the reason why they want to hold dollars is because the U.S. is a safe place to have your money, to invest and to hold your assets.”

Mnuchin said it’s interesting that, in a increasingly digital world, “the demand for U.S. currency continues to go up.” adding that “there’s a lot of Benjamins all over the world.”

Actually, it’s not that interesting: the world’s growing appetite for physical assets such as paper dollars and gold, coupled with the continued interest in cryptocurrencies and other traditional currency alternatives, merely confirms that faith in artificially levitated markets is approaching a tipping point. Meanwhile the world’s “top 0.001%ers” continue to quietly cash out, literally, and put their Benjamins in secret vaults in the middle of somewhere, even as central banks do everything in their power to reduce the amount of physical currency in circulation and replace it with easily trackable digital alternatives.

As we reported back in August, there are now more $100 bills in circulation than $1 bills, according to data from the Federal Reserve, which found there are more $100s than any other denomination of U.S. currency. And as an indication of just how much demand there is for physical stores of value, consider this: the number of bills featuring a picture of Benjamin Franklin has about doubled since the start of the recession.

In 2018, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago illustrated a correlation between low interest rates and high currency demand, though it also noted outside factors could help explain swelling demand.

The bank estimated that 80% of all $100 bills last year were actually in circulation in foreign countries, and explained that residents in other countries, particularly those with unstable financial systems, often use the notes as a safe haven.

To watch the exchange, click on the image below and fast forward to 7 minutes 30 seconds in.

Lou Dobbs

@LouDobbs

Historic Trade Victories. @stevenmnuchin1 praises @POTUS for continuing to deliver on all of his trade & economic promises.

Embedded video

It’s not just US dollar that are disappearing, however.

Few are as perplexed by the fate of the missing cash as the German central bank: according to the Bundesbank more than 150 billion euros are being hoarded in Germany. This has led the European Central Bank, and others, to ask the public for help.

“Everyone says that they are not hoarding cash but the money is clearly somewhere,” said Henk Esselink, head of the issue and circulation section in the ECB’s currency management division.

“People hide their money everywhere,” said Sven Bertelmann, head of the Bundesbank’s National Analysis Centre in Mainz, Germany. Sometimes bank notes are buried in the garden, where they start decomposing, or hidden in attics, where they are used by mice for building nests. “It happens again and again that people keep money in an envelope and then they shred it by mistake,” Bertelmann said. “We pick up the bank notes with tweezers and then start to put them together, like a jigsaw puzzle.”

Australia’s central bank says its best guess is that only around a quarter of the bank notes in circulation are used for everyday transactions. Up to 8% of cash is used in the shadow economy—tax avoidance or illegal payments—while as much as 10% could have been lost. That is $7.6 billion Australian dollars ($5.2 billion) missing at the beach or in couch cushions…Or simply lost in a “boating accident” to avoid the taxman until the rainy days arrive.

The biggest use of cash is as a store of wealth “in safes, under beds and at the back of cupboards, both here in Australia and elsewhere around the world,” Mr. Lowe, the RBA governor, said.

Swiss National Bank officials likewise found that hoarding of Swiss francs jumped around the year 2000, likely motivated by fear of the Y2K bug infecting computer systems, the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the September 11 terrorist attacks and introduction of the euro. The financial crisis that began in 2007 encouraged people to stash even more.

Meanwhile, with a financial crisis looming – and getting closer by the day – for some countries, such as New Zealand, making money disappear is becoming a national pastime. Around a third of New Zealand’s new bank notes headed overseas in 2017, up from 6% four years earlier. That happened around the time that tourism overtook dairy as the country’s main export money-spinner, leading officials to speculate on the role played by currency exchanges, especially in Asia.

The trail mostly ran cold after that. The bank could only identify the whereabouts of around 25% of New Zealand’s cash. The rest, of about 75%, has disappeared.

“Our sense is that we’re in the same boat as a lot of other central banks out there,” said Christian Hawkesby, assistant governor at the RBNZ. “We can’t fully explain why holdings of cash are rising and where they are going.”

 

Unfortunate boating accident.
end
A good one..the true state of affairs with respect to the USA budgetary deficits for 2020 and 2021
it is a doomsday machine on steroids.
(courtesy David Stockman)

As The Fiscal Doomsday Machine Powers On, David Stockman Rages “Impeach The Congress, Too!”

Authored by David Stockman via LewRockwell.com,

If bringing one’s country to fiscal ruin were an impeachable offense, you’d have to impeach the entire city of Washington.

On December 16 the gross Federal debt breached a new level to $23.1 trillion, while the net debt after $401 billion of cash weighed in at $22.71 trillion. The latter monstrous figure is notable because on June 30, 2019 it stood at $21.76 trillion.

 

So what has happened in the last 167 days is a $948 billion increase in the Uncle Sam’s net debt, which amounts to a gain of $5.7 billionper day – including, as we like to say, weekends, holidays and snow days.

Worse still, not a single dollar of that gain got absorbed in government trust funds. The Treasury float held by the public actually rose by $953 billion.

So why in the world do the knuckleheads on bubblevision not understand where the spiking rates and ructions in the repo market came from?

The law of supply and demand is still operative, and the US Treasury is literally flooding the bond pits with new supply. Even at the bottom of the Great Recession, Uncle Sam did not drain $5.7 billion per day from the bond market.

But nary a soul down in the Imperial City has noticed this borrowing eruption at the tippy-top of the business cycle, which now teeters on borrowed time at a record 127 months of age. Instead, this very day the Congress is busily engaged in what is a fair approximation of abolishing the election process at the heart of American democracy.

We will address today’s hideous impeachment Gong Show below. But here we note that every talking head showing up on the screen today is claiming that the market can keep on bubbling higher because the pending impeachment of the nation’s 45th president is a great big nothingburger.

Au contraire!

It’s real, deeper meaning is that the Washington end of the Acela Corridor is now morphing into a disruptive missile aimed right at the canyons of Wall Street.

Of course, the Donald won’t be “convicted” by the Republican Senate. Indeed, the House impeachment resolution my never even be sent to the Senate if Nancy and her ship of fools conclude there won’t be a real “trial” in the Senate and therefore leave the resolutions sitting on the parliamentarian’s desk as camera ready campaign fodder for 2020.

But, hey, a government which can treat the supposedly solemn and extraordinary process of impeachment as a mere exercise in campaign theatrics is a government that has given the term “dysfunctional” an altogether new definition. It means that the conduct of the actual business of the people’s government has virtually ceased.

To be sure, we would ordinarily consider a government that does absolutely nothing to be praiseworthy. After all, the route to prosperity does not extend through the halls of Congress or the vast departments inside the beltway, but stems from the genius of free enterprise and the exertions and inspiration of workers, employers, savers, investors and inventors. They require neither help nor superintendence from an activist Federal government.

Likewise, a reticent government is all we really need for national defense. The latter has been more than taken care of by the god-created ocean moats which secure our shores and our already paid for nuclear deterrent which keeps distant foes at bay. All the rest of the $900 billion of so-called national security spending and the vast and unremitting Washington machinations it funds are in behalf of Empire, not the safety and liberty of the homeland.

But the fly in the ointment is that several generations of Washington politicians have turned the Federal budget into a Fiscal Doomsday Machine. Spending for both automatic entitlements and so-called discretionary programs alike gushes higher, pulling the public debt upwards as it goes, with virtually no meaningful legislative action.

Consequently, the fractured and inflamed partisanship evident in today’s demented proceedings has become the handmaid of the nation’s impending fiscal catastrophe. That is, government must take positive and sweeping legislative action to brake the Doomsday Machine, but James Madison’s checks and balances have always made large-scale statutory enactments difficult, while today’s metastasized partisanship have made them well nigh impossible.

It is generally understood that the giant entitlements – Social Security, Federal retirement, Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps and the lesser income security programs – are automatic, permanently authorized payments that currently flow to upwards of 160 million Americans and will continue to do so, whether Congress does its job or not.

But what needs emphasis is that the rate of growth is accelerating – in effect, it is busting loose from the growth rate of the faltering national economy which must finance these massive entitlements.

Thus, between 1987 and 2000, total Federal entitlement spending soared from $358 billion to $778 billion or by 117%. But during those first 13 years of Greenspan’s reign, the Fed’s easy money was able to goose nominal GDP by 115%, meaning that the entitlement claim on GDP remained constant at about 7.5%.

Since then, it has been off to the races as shown in the graph below. During the last 19 years, nominal GDP (brown line) doubled again, but Federal entitlement spending (purple line) tripled, and it’s claim on GDP rose from 7.5% to 11.0%.

What this means is that every year the legislative stalemate and inaction persists is another year in which the Fiscal Doomsday Machine gathers even more momentum.

Moreover, the surge of beneficiaries behind the above divergence is by no means over. The 80-million strong Baby Boom will continue to clamber on to the Social Security/Medicare welcome wagon at a rate of 11,000 per day until the end of the 2020s.

The graph below is dispositive. The 39.7 million Medicare (and social security retirement, too) beneficiaries at the turn of the century are already more than 60 million, which total will rise to 81.5 million by 2030 and 92.4 million by 2050.

Needless to say, the rate of entitlement spending growth, which has already broken loose from GDP, will diverge to an even greater degree during the decades ahead. Quite simply, the already baked-in-the cake demographics of American society guarantee that work force and GDP growth will continue to weaken, even as the exploding retirement population gets ever older (on average) and therefore more costly to support.

Nor is the automatic entitlement the only aspect of the budget threatening a further breakout in the Turbulent Twenties ahead. Mandatory interest on the debt is fixing to soar at quadruple the rate of the last 19 years owing to the math of debt and interest rates.

To wit, the first 19 years of this century witnessed the full fury of central bank interest rate repression. The 10-year U.S. Treasury (UST) yield fell from 6.5% to a recent sub-basement level of just 1.75%.

Accordingly, even as the Federal debt erupted from $5.7 trillion to nearly $23 trillion, or 300%, during that period, the interest expense of the US Treasury crept up at a far more moderate pace.

Thus, interest outlays during Q3 2000 posted at a $353 billion annual rate, representing 6.2% of the $5.67 trillion of public debt then outstanding. But during the next 19 years of explosively growing Federal debt, interest expense crept up to just $584 billion at an annual rate during Q3 2019, representing but a 65% gain since the turn of the century.

Here’s the thing. Annualized interest expense in Q3 2019 amounted to just 2.6% of the debt outstanding – or barely one-third of the 6.2% level registered in Q3 2000.

It goes without saying that this disconnect between the debt and its cost of carry was a one-time fiscal windfall that has actually functioned to obfuscate the magnitude of the budget crisis gestating down below the top line. Yet according to the sheer math of the thing, it can’t happen again in the decades ahead because interest rates have already been pushed to sub-economic and unsustainable levels by the Fed and other central banks.

At minimum, therefore, interest expense will grow just as fast as the baked-in-the-cake growth of the Federal debt, which is heading toward well in excess of $40 trillion by the end of the 2020s. Accordingly, even at today’s average yield Federal interest expense will surge to $1.1 trillion per year during the next 10 years, and a lot more when interest rates finally normalize.

Growth of Federal Debt Versus Interest Expense, 2000-2019

Finally, even the so-called discretionary part of the budget – annual appropriations for defense and domestic programs – has succumbed to a form of de facto automaticity.

To wit, the Imperial City has been so fiscally euthanized by the Fed’s gift of unending cheap money and massive monetization of the public debt that both parties are on the same side of the budgetary boat. That is, in favor of more spending – with the GOP neocons and hawks pushing defense spending skyward in trade for equivalent levitation of domestic appropriations, as especially favored by the Dems.

Moreover, the Trumpified GOP has developed a deathly fear of being blamed for another government shutdown, which it falsely blames for its wipeout at the polls in 2018. So the GOP has essentially joined a bipartisan conspiracy in favor of a rolling suspension of the Federal debt limit and annual omnibus appropriations bills that are loaded with budget busting pork.

Crazily, the talking heads on bubblevision this AM were making the absurd argument that there is smooth sailing ahead because Congress just passed a 2300 page $1.4 trillion omnibus appropriations bill for the balance of FY 2020, even as it is in the midst of a partisan donnybrook on impeachment.

Supposedly, this means the government is still functioning. No sweat!

Well, yes, it is functioning, but to literally blow the top off from even the tiny discretionary spending corner of the Federal budget that until the Donald came along was exhibiting a modicum of restraint.

No more. The two-year budget deal being sent to the White House will blow the budget caps for FY2020-2021 by $320 billion, but even that isn’t the half of it.

Due to Congress’ crooked, self-serving scoring rules, budgetary caps become the basis for the outyear current policy baseline in subsequent years. Accordingly, for FY 2020 the existing caps were supposed to cause total defense and non-defense appropriations to drop by $125 billion – from $1.244 trillion in FY 2019 to $1.119 trillion in FY 2020.

This is shown in the solid black line in the chart below, and also shown by the dotted black line is the convention for projecting 10-year baseline spending from the old FY2020 and FY2021 caps.

Thanks to Congress’ alleged ability to “function” in the midst of partisan madness, however, those caps have now been blown away and none have been enacted for subsequent years. Hence the baseline for discretionary spending in the outyears is now plotted by the dotted blue line.

The difference over 10-year? A cool $1.7 trillion, and you can believe that the bipartisan duopoly on Capital Hill will drive every dime of this increase right into Uncle Sam’s trillion+ per year borrowing requirement.

Even then they were not done as they honed today’s impeachment brickbats. While they were at it, they repealed $375 billion of health care taxes that the one and same Pelosi-led Dem majority rammed through in 2010 in order to prove that Obamacare would not add to the public debt!

We have no particular brief for the medical taxes and are not surprised at all by the blatant Dem hypocrisy. After all, for the most part these massive taxes have never actually gone into effect because implementation has been deferred time and time again just before the effective dates.

Still, if you can’t repeal ObamaCare spending as the GOP miserably failed to do in 2017 and 2018, why do you get to repeal these financing means and brag you have made a blow for America’s taxpayers?

Not only do these actions bury taxpayers deeper in debt, they also guarantee that some day down the road even higher taxes will be imposed in order to finally stem the flood of red ink.

Besides that, $200 billion of the revenue loss buried in the Omnibus appropriations bill is attributable to permanent repeal of the so-called Cadillac Tax on ultra-high cost, gold-plated – mainly union – health care plans, which have a total cost of more than $30,000 per year.

That’s right. The bipartisan duopoly has now agreed to keep spending trillions over the next decade for ObamaCare but can’t even see its way clear to tax the excess value of health care plans which cost about the same as the average annual wage among the 170 million payroll tax filers in the US.

Nevertheless, when you add $70 billion of other tax loopholes which were extended and the associated debt service cost, the very “functional” Congress at work this week blew a $500 billion hole in the revenue collections over the next decade to fit on top of the $1.7 trillion of added discretionary spending.

So the Federal budget has indeed become a full-bore Doomsday Machine. There is not a scintilla of capacity or will on either side of the partisan divide to even brake its trajectory. As shown below, the publicly-held debt is heading toward 150% of GDP – a level which would crush what remains of US economic growth or encourage the Fed to print so much money monetizing this exploding public debt as to virtually destroy the financial system in the process.

Yet this gets us back to today’s contretemps.

Obviously, the Dem impeachment case is absurd. The meddling in the 2016 election was done by the Deep State intelligence agencies with the encouragement of partisan Obama officials, not the Russians; and Ukraine’s cesspool of corruption would not have smeared American politics in the slightest had Washington not fomented a coup in February 2014 against a government it didn’t like for being too friendly with its historic Russian neighbor and suzerain.

So the Donald had every reason of state to want the Ukraine corruption investigated. For crying out loud, the prosecutor fired by Biden has told exactly why it happened.

In early 2106, he had seized the property of the corrupt Ukrainian oligarch and owner of Burisma, who had hired Hunter Biden and the son-in-law and chief of staff to the Secretary of State, John Kerry. Then out of the blue, wham! He was removed from office at Biden’s command in exactly the quid pro quo manner Uncle Joe famously bragged about before an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations.

So how much stench do you really need in your nostrils to recognize that the Hunter Biden led crew of fortune hunters in Ukraine after February 2014 weren’t on the up and up?

But actually, the threadbare articles of impeachment arising from the stench of Ukraine are not really about the Donald’s 25 minute phone call and purported quid pro quo at all. The Dems have adopted the posture that the American election process itself is imperiled by the nefarious meddling of Russkies and other fureners, and are focused not on governance, but on this alleged threat to their ability to win office and hold power.

At the same time, the GOP has lost all sense of its fundamental missions in behalf of sound money, fiscal rectitude, free markers and homeland defense. Instead, it’s going full retard on its own fatuous version of the supposedly imperiled U.S. election process.

That’s what the Donald’s insane Wall on the Mexican border and the GOP’s increasingly shrill anti-immigration policy is all about. It opposes more immigrants and brown people because it believes they will vote Democrat and thereby deprive the GOP of its rightful claim on political power.

Needless to say, two parties fighting over alleged existential threats to the very essence of American democracy is the very opposite of the nothingburger ballyhooed by bubble vision this AM.

What the Trump impeachment is really about is a brutal, raw struggle for power that threatens the very survival of American democracy, and which could end up in a hung 2020 election that would make the hanging-chad ordeal of 2000 look like a walk in the park.

Even then, the Fiscal Doomsday Machine will power forward unrestrained.

And these fools on bubble vision want you to buy-the-dip.

Don’t you dare!

END

We have two more trading days before the turn into the new year. The repo money continues to be underscribed which either means that the banks do not need the money or their balance sheet is full and there is no room for added repos.  Pozsar troubles down saying that year end balance sheet re adjustments may cause huge problems.  Let us see how this will play out.

(zerohedge)

Repo Crisis Fades Away With Second “Undersubscribed” Turn Repo Even As Pozsar Doubles Down On Doomsday

It looks like the year-end repocalypse that was predicted by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar is not going to happen this year after all.

Today’s Term Repo which matures on January 7 saw $28.8BN in security submissions ($13.85BN in TSYs, $14.95BN in MBS), below the $35BN in total availability.

As such, this was the second term repo since the start of the Fed’s emergency repo program that covered the year-end “turn” with a maturity of Jan 2, and was not fully overalotted.  As shown in the chart below, the first four “turn” term repos were all oversubscribed (boxed in red), while today’s was the second “turn” repo that saw a less than full allotment.

As such, it now appears that banks have reached their fill of what they believe will be sufficient year-end liquidity, and all subsequent “turn” repos will likely see a lower allotment as the Fed’s $500BN liquidity backstop bazooka ends up being underutilized, if not by much.

In his latest comment on the repo market, Curvature’s Scott Skyrm noted that “once the term RP operations switch to being undersubscribed,it either means most of the Street’s year-end funding need is fulfilled, or banks are close to their balance sheet limits.” His full comment below:

The Fed took out the bazooka last Thursday and proposed to flood the Repo market with liquidity. If needed. That’s the catch. The Primary Dealers might not take all of the cash the Fed is offering. Either they won’t need it or they won’t want it. So there are two scenarios as we get close to the end of the month. Either Primary Dealer banks do not take all of the Fed cash because their balance sheets are full or because they don’t need the cash. Wrightson estimates that only $300 billion to $350 billion* of the ~$500 billion will be taken by the Primary Dealers. We can see whether the Fed RP ops are oversubscribed or undersubscribed by watching the results. Back on November 25, the $25 billion term RP operation to January 6 was oversubscribed by $24 billion. The $50 billion operation to January 17 on Monday was only oversubscribed by $4.25 billion. Once the term RP operations switch to being undersubscribed, it either means most of the Street’s year-end funding need is fulfilled, or banks are close to their balance sheet limits.

This means that today’s repo is either good news, or bad news: good news if banks don’t need any additional liquidity for year end, but bad news if they are simply prevented from seeking more Fed reserves due to balance sheet limitations (and how many securities they can pledge), even as the overall funding in the repo market remains insufficient.

As usual, keep a track on the overnight repo rate for confirmation if things are getting better or worse. Incidentally, today the rate dropped 2bps to 1.545%…

… which suggests that all else equal, the tempest in the repo market – and the Fed’s expansion of QE4 as Pozsar predicted – may not happen after all.

Meanwhile, despite the lack of oversubscribed repo for two operations in a row, repo doomsayer Pozsar refuses to throw in the towel and in an interview posted by Bloomberg on Friday, the Credit Suisse analyst said “it’s not over” yet, saying that “if the yearend is less of a problem because of the repo bazooka we got from the Fed, and if the message of my report played a part in getting that bazooka, then that’s a nice way to be proven wrong.” However, he then added ominously that “now we’re getting into a point in the year when balance-sheet problems are going to flare up, and I think the system will get gummed up again.

In other words, the world’s foremost repo expert expects more fireworks in the coming week.

He has two days in which to be proven right: there are two more term repos in 2019, one on Dec 26 and one on Dec 30. Absent some crisis on or around those days, it appears that the Fed managed to avoid the repo doomsday that Pozsar predicted two weeks ago.

end
The CEO of Boeing fired..
(zerohedge)

Muilenburg Fired As Boeing CEO

Update (0915ET): Boeing shares have reopened – higher…

* * *

In what was not entirely surprising, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg has “resigned” and will be replaced by current Chairman David Calhoun.

CNBC’s Phill LeBeau has a slightly different take:

“This was the decision of the board. .. He was fired.”

Boeing shares are currently halted…

Over the 3-year period 2016 through 2018 – Muilenburg’s reign as CEO – Boeing employees received newly issued stock that’s worth $4.9 billion today. There was another $3.5 billion worth of stock issued to the Boeing pension plan, which was immediately sold into the open market.

h/t @fxmacro

And Muilenburg added a massive amount of debt to Boeing’s balance sheet…

*  *  *

Full Statement

Boeing announced today that its Board of Directors has named current Chairman, David L. Calhoun, as Chief Executive Officer and President, effective January 13, 2020. Mr. Calhoun will remain a member of the Board. In addition, Board member Lawrence W. Kellner will become non-executive Chairman of the Board effective immediately.

The Company also announced that Dennis A. Muilenburg has resigned from his positions as Chief Executive Officer and Board director effective immediately. Boeing Chief Financial Officer Greg Smith will serve as interim CEO during the brief transition period, while Mr. Calhoun exits his non-Boeing commitments.

The Board of Directors decided that a change in leadership was necessary to restore confidence in the Company moving forward as it works to repair relationships with regulators, customers, and all other stakeholders.

Under the Company’s new leadership, Boeing will operate with a renewed commitment to full transparency, including effective and proactive communication with the FAA, other global regulators and its customers.

“On behalf of the entire Board of Directors, I am pleased that Dave has agreed to lead Boeing at this critical juncture,” Mr. Kellner said.  He added,

“Dave has deep industry experience and a proven track record of strong leadership, and he recognizes the challenges we must confront. The Board and I look forward to working with him and the rest of the Boeing team to ensure that today marks a new way forward for our company.”

Mr. Calhoun said, “I strongly believe in the future of Boeing and the 737 MAX. I am honored to lead this great company and the 150,000 dedicated employees who are working hard to create the future of aviation.”

* * *

Notably, no well wishes for Muilenburg on the way out.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

END

What a doorknob: Adam Schiff has no sympathy for FBI victim and CIA asset Carter page for the spying orchestrated by the Dems

(zeorhedge)

Adam Schiff Has ‘No Sympathy’ For FBI Victim Carter Page; Page Responds

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) says it’s hard to feel sympathetic for former Trump campaign aide Carter Page, despite the fact that he was spied on by the FBI after the agency fabricated evidence to obtain a surveillance warrant from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court.

After the FISA court denied their request, FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith fabricated evidence to exclude the fact that Page was a CIA source, with “positive assessment,” despite the fact that the CIA informed Clinesmith of Page’s prior work for the agency.

Schiff, however, has no love for Page despite DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz finding 16 significant ‘errors’ in the FBI’s FISA applications used to surveil Page.

“I have to say, you know, Carter Page came before our Committee and for hours of his testimony, denied things that we knew were true, later had to admit them during his testimony,” Schiff told PBS News‘ Margaret Hoover. “It’s hard to be sympathetic to someone who isn’t honest with you when he comes and testifies under oath. It’s also hard to be sympathetic when you have someone who has admitted to being an adviser to the Kremlin.”

Hoover countered, noting “But then was also informing the CIA,” to which Schiff replies “Yes, yes.”

“Which we didn’t know about,” replied Hoover.

Who was both targeted by the KGB but also talking to the United States and its agencies and that should have been included, made clear, and it wasn’t, according to the inspector general,” Schiff responded.

Firing Line with Margaret Hoover

@FiringLineShow

.@RepAdamSchiff is unsympathetic to Carter Page, telling @FiringLineShow that Page “denied things that we knew were true” in testimony, admitted to being an advisor to the Kremlin & “was apparently both targeted by the KGB, but also talking to the United States and its agencies.”

Embedded video

After Schiff’s comments were published, Page responded on Twitter: “There have been various allegations of dishonesty regarding FBI lawyer Clinesmith. On information, belief and firsthand experience since 2017, I have actually found @RepAdamSchiff to be even more untrustworthy and dangerous with his misuse of @DNC lies.

Carter Page, Ph.D.@carterwpage

There have been various allegations of dishonesty regarding FBI lawyer Clinesmith. On information, belief and firsthand experience since 2017, I have actually found @RepAdamSchiff to be even more untrustworthy and dangerous with his misuse of @DNC lies:https://www.foxnews.com/politics/adam-schiff-says-its-hard-to-be-sympathetic-to-carter-page-amid-fisa-abuse 

Adam Schiff says ‘it’s hard to be sympathetic’ to Carter Page amid FISA abuse revelations

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., is not expressing any remorse for former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, who was swept up in the yearslong Russia investigation.

foxnews.com

Greenwald weighs in:

Glenn Greenwald

@ggreenwald

If you don’t feel sympathy for someone who was wrongly smeared for years as being a traitor, and who was spied on by his own government due to FBI lying & subterfuge, then you’re not only unqualified to wield power but probably also a sociopath.

In other words: Adam Schiff. https://twitter.com/FiringLineShow/status/1208125682913595402 

Firing Line with Margaret Hoover

@FiringLineShow

.@RepAdamSchiff is unsympathetic to Carter Page, telling @FiringLineShow that Page “denied things that we knew were true” in testimony, admitted to being an advisor to the Kremlin & “was apparently both targeted by the KGB, but also talking to the United States and its agencies.”

Embedded video

end

Is Mifsud, the “genesis” of the Russiagate hoax alive or dead?

my money..he is hiding for his life

(Sara Carter)

Italian Prosecutors Believe Joseph Mifsud – The Man Who Started RussiaGate – “Is Dead”

UPDATE: George Papadopolous responded to the reports that Italian prosecutors in Agrigento, Sicily believe the Maltese Professor Joseph Mifsud is dead.

“Lil Joey Mifsud is not sleeping with the fishes,” Tweeted Papadopolous. “More to come.”

George Papadopoulos

@GeorgePapa19

Lil Joey Mifsud is not sleeping with the fishes. More to come.

 

Via SaraACarter.com,

What happened to Joseph Mifsud?It is the biggest mystery surrounding the man that allegedly began the FBI’s probe into President Donald Trump’s campaign and the now debunked theory that campaign officials conspired with Russia in the 2016 election.

A new story out of Italy suggests that an infamous audio file allegedly sent by Mifsud to two Italian papers is believed to be fake, according to reporters who had it analyzed by one of Italy’s top forensic experts. The audio file is not the same deposition audio file that is in the possession of the Department of Justice and the Senate Judiciary Committee, in which Mifsud allegedly describes the work he was doing and why he targeted George Papadopoulos. The last anyone has heard from Mifsud was the Spring of 2018.

Department of Justice officials declined to comment to SaraACarter.com on the ongoing investigation or Mifsud.

However, a detailed story by the reputable and well known Italian news outlet Il Giornale, Italian journalists Roberto Vivaldelli and Mauro Indelicato, suggest that sources within the Agrigento Public Prosecution office, who brought charges on Mifsud in another criminal matter associated with his work at a public university in Italy, believe he is dead. Their story is published in English at Il Giornale’s blog site Inside Over.

Sources interviewed from the Italian prosecutors office, told the journalists that they believe there is an “80 percent” chance that Mifsud is no longer alive.

I spoke to Roberto Vivaldelli Friday, and he affirmed that the newest details regarding Mifsud came as a result of their investigation into Mifsud’s time as president of a university in the southern Italian city of Agrigento, Sicily. Currently, prosecutor’s in Agriengento, Sicily are investigating Mifsud’s alleged misuse of university finances and unexplained expenses.

“Mifsud is under investigation for his management of the university and for some crazy expenses,” Vivaldelli told me.

“From the information we have gathered, the Italian prosecutors are convinced that the professor is most likely not alive.”

Vivaldelli said a person sent an audio file to the offices of two Italian newspapers last November 11, “but according to an expert we consulted this audio is fake. I personally think it’s incredible that no one knows where Mifsud is, alive or dead.”

According to Vivaldelli the sources at the Agrigento prosecutors office did not divulge details as to why they believe he’s dead.

What we do know is that Attorney General William Barr and Connecticut prosecutor John Durham have opened a criminal investigation into the matter. Mifsud, the Maltese professor, who befriended former Trump campaign advisor George Papadopolous and informed him that the Russians had obtained Hillary Clinton’s missing emails is at the center of the controversy.

If anyone has answers into what really happened with the FBI’s investigation it would be him. It was allegedly Mifsud’s tipoff about the Russians having Clinton’s emails that was the beginning of the investigation. The former FBI officials stated that it was when Papadopolous discussed what he had been told by Mifsud with Australian Ambassador Alexander Downer that the counterintelligence investigation began. They bureau agents claimed it was the pretext to opening the Crossfire Hurricane investigation into the campaign on July, 2016.

But now we know different and there is enough information surfacing to suspect that Mifsud did not have ties to Russia but was a western intelligence asset, as suggested by his attorney Stephan Roh, in an article written by John Solomon.

Whether, Mifsud is in hiding for his own safety is not known. Why the Italian prosecutors believe he is dead has not been explained, but the work done by these two Italian journalists is very thorough. It’s another piece of the puzzle in understanding the mysterious Mifsud – what role he played and what may of actually happened to him.

This article is english translation of “Mifsud ora è un giallo. Il sospetto in procura: quasi certamente morto”, first published by IL-GIORNALE in Italy.

In the city of temples it seems that everybody has now dumped him. In Agrigento, where the Maltese professor was president of the local university consortium, a full-blown race is on to take the most distance from him. The reference is to Joseph Mifsud, a key figure in Russiagate, who has been missing since October 2017.

Nobody knew anything

Mifsud arrived in Agrigento in April 2010 and was presented at the seat of the provincial government as the new president of the University Consortium. At the time the province was the largest shareholder in the body so a substantial number of the political decisions depended on what today the Region of Sicily knows as the “free consortium of municipalities”. The promotor of his appointment to the Agrigento university consortium was Eugenio D’Orsi, President of the Province from 2008 until 2013, the last before the body was wound up by Rosario Crocetta. “Mifsud – D’Orsi explained in the last few days – had given hope to Agrigento. He was a brilliant person, with unlimited knowledge and we wanted to bring Sicily to the world. The lecturer put me in touch with Malta, and we were about to build the airport thanks to that. That was the best side of him”.

Then, according to the former president of the province, something changed: “In the second part of the experience with him he was, and I will say this bluntly, a charlatan”, D’Orsi said in the interview mentioned above. The same former President then confirmed that the decision to select Mifsud was at the time backed by all the shareholders of the consortium, in other words also by the city council of Agrigento, the Chamber of Commerce and the University di Palermo. But today, as mentioned above, there is a race to dump the Maltese professor first. The city council of Agrigento has, through the current mayor, Lillo Firetto, in the last few days announced that the body has entered a civil claim in the proceeding brought by the Public Prosecution Office of Agrigento in relation to the “crazy expenses” incurred by Mifsud during his presidency.

The proceeding was brought after complaints had been submitted by Giovanni Di Maida, the current commissioner of the university consortium but at the time already a member of the board of directors. He also said he did not notice anything and that he heard Mifsud explaining that he made his trips abroad in order to enter into agreements with other foreign universities. These agreements were never concluded, Di Maida is at pains to point out. As, however, pointed out by Felice Cavallaro in Corriere Della Sera, “perhaps Di Maida, who was on the board of directors with professors Maria Immordino and Gianfranco Tuzzolino, could also have had some concerns a few years ago”. Like the other people involved, however, it was only recently that he noticed the “crazy expenses”: “Everything went through two functionaries of the Consortium who said nothing, a lady who is now retired and an office worker whom they had transferred from nearby Licata”, Di Maida explained.

In a nutshell, in Agrigento nobody had noticed anything or at least that is the explanation of the people involved. Gaps in the financial statements, strange telephone calls, suspicious trips and lengthy absences from Agrigento are the items of evidence that have only now emerged, just when Mifsud’s name is no longer confined to the local news. And it is only now, from a political point of view, that everybody in the city has begun to take a distance from the Maltese professor.

The suspicion harboured by the Public Prosecution Office
There is, however, another aspect that is destined to cast a larger shadow on the matter. It was the public prosecutors of Agrigento that brought proceedings against Mifsud, guilty of putting the university consortium into the red. Perhaps somebody helped the Maltese professor to cause the financial disaster. The public prosecution office would also like to find out about this in its investigation. The problem, however, and this is the thing that stands out most at the moment, is that Mifsud cannot be traced. As mentioned at the beginning of the article, there has been no trace of him since 2017, in other words for more than two years: “The Agrigento Public Prosecution Office has activated the procedures for the service of process but they are very complex because, amongst other things, the suspects are people who may no longer be alive”, according to a report by the Italian news agency AGI a few days ago.

But even more well-founded suspicions have been leaked from the Public Prosecution Office in the last few hours. There are growing rumours that the Agrigento Public Prosecution Service are now almost certain that the person they are investigating will in future have no chance to defend himself either in a court of law or at a political level: “It is highly likely that Mifsud is dead”, a source at the Agrigento Palace of Justice has confirmed. “We are talking an 80% possibility”.

The suspicion about the fate of Mifsud
There is further evidence that leads us to speculate that Joseph Mifsud may – and the use of the conditional is of course obligatory – no longer be alive, just to return to the rumours just mentioned. Even if it is obvious that we hope that this will not prove the case. We are talking about the mysterious audio file sent to the editors of Adnkronos and Il Corriere della Sera: “I hope you will make my words known, please listen to the attached files”, says the voice of a person who describes himself as Joseph Mifsud and who, on 11 November 2019, made those statements.

However, an expert – one of the best qualified in Italy – whom we had listen to the audio files is in no doubt: the voice is not that of the professor. “I am convinced that the audio file is fake and the person is not Professor Joseph Mifsud“. That is the view of the expert in forensic sciences, one of the most important in Italy working in the field, whom Inside Over contacted through Cristina Sartori, a court registered handwriting expert at the Court of Trento. The expert compared the audio file sent by the supposed Mifsud to the press agency Adnkronos and to Corriere della Sera, with two videos on Youtube in which the lecturer is heard speaking.

The analysis by the expert that we contacted is extremely interesting: “It was recorded with a microphone attached to the collar in a very large space, connected directly to the computer, there is a lot of echo”, she explained to InsideOver. “In the audio file sent to the Italian newspapers – she comments – you can also hear the voice of a woman towards the end who says 22”. The person in the audio message, she continues, “does not have the same intonation as the true Mifsud in the videos, who dragged his vowels because of his breathing. This thing is never in the audio file and I am quite convinced it is fake”. His lawyer, Stephan Roh, had also denied, in comments made to Adnkronos, that the person who made the audio message was the Maltese lecturer: “It is absolutely fake, 100 per cent”. Roh said: “The voice is too high, it is not his accent, not his tone, he seems like a true Italian”.

At this point, assuming that the handwriting expert is actually right (as we believe), the question must be asked: why would someone have made a fake audio message? There are two possibilities: either the Maltese lecturer is still in hiding – who knows where – or, in the worst case scenario, we are talking about a person who is possibly no longer alive. The last person who saw him in Rome told Panorama that “Joe has a nice apartment in Parioli, I last saw him there. It was March 2018”, the source explained. “That [Joseph Mifsud] disappeared in 2017 I read in the newspapers. I saw him again for the last time in Parioli, close to Piazza Euclide, where Joe had a nice apartment”. And then?

end
Lindsay Graham…

‘Stop Playing Games’: Graham Warns Pelosi Senate May ‘Strike Back’ Over Impeachment Debacle

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said on Monday that the “Constitutional outrage” by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) “needs to end,” and that if it continues into 2020, “the Senate needs to strike back.”

Lindsey Graham

@LindseyGrahamSC

This Constitutional outrage by @SpeakerPelosi needs to end.

She is trying to run the Senate and deny President @realDonaldTrump his day in court after the House’s sham impeachment process. https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1209104378025717760 

Nancy Pelosi

@SpeakerPelosi

The House cannot choose our impeachment managers until we know what sort of trial the Senate will conduct.

President Trump blocked his own witnesses and documents from the House, and from the American people, on phony complaints about the House process. What is his excuse now?

Lindsey Graham

@LindseyGrahamSC

Stop playing games with the Constitution.

In our system, you can’t be the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader at the same time.

The Senate will decide how we dispose of this sham created by the House.

The Senate will decide how we dispose of this sham created by the house,” Graham tweeted, referring to the impasse created by Pelosi – who is refusing to transmit two articles of impeachment against President Trump until the Senate agrees to her terms.

Lindsey Graham

@LindseyGrahamSC

If this continues into 2020, the Senate needs to strike back, standing up for our rights and ending this debacle.

1,893 people are talking about this

President Trump also had words for Pelosi on Monday after the Speaker called for “fairness” in a Senate trial.

“Pelosi gives us the most unfair trial in the history of the U.S. Congress, and now she is crying for fairness in the Senate, and breaking all rules while doing so,” Trump tweeted, adding “She lost Congress once, she will do it again!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Pelosi gives us the most unfair trial in the history of the U.S. Congress, and now she is crying for fairness in the Senate, and breaking all rules while doing so. She lost Congress once, she will do it again!

Pelosi says she will only transmit the impeachment articles to the Senate after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announces the process they will use for Trump’s trial.

McConnell has advocated for a similar process to Bill Clinton’s 1999 impeachment, which included an initial agreement to first hear the case, followed by a vote on whether to call witnesses.

Speaking with “Fox and Friends” on Monday, McConnell said “we’re at an impasse” and “we can’t do anything until the speaker sends the papers over, so everybody enjoy the holidays.”

McConnell blasted Pelosi for trying to “tell us how to run the trial.”

“Look, what we need to do is to listen to the arguments, have a written questioning period, and then decide whether we need witnesses or not,” McConnell said, adding that some Republican senators “have said, ‘I am thinking of myself as a juror,'” while others believe “the case against President Trump is very thin.” –NBC News

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has pushed for a single resolution that would outline the parameters for presenting the case, as well as allow for the calling of witnesses such as John Bolton, acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, and two other advisers.

Republicans, meanwhile, want former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter to testify over alleged corruption, after President Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky to investigate several claims.

end

This will probably kill Joe Biden’s attempt for the Presidency;:  Hunter Biden has been accused of a 156 million Ukraine money laundering scheme in this latest court filing. It also looks like he is involved in another case involving counterfeiting and money laundering.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

CBS’s @CBS_Herridge: FBI leadership pushed Steele Dossier for January 2017 intel assessment. Witness told IG Horowitz “McCabe understood President Obama’s request for the ICA to require the participating agencies to share all information relevant to Russia and 2016 elections.” pg. 177 #Durham https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status/1208411915963305984

     January 2017 Comey told President-elect Trump FBI didn’t know if Steele allegations true, and “FBI not investigating them” Note: IG Horowitz reports “In mid-November and December 2016, FBI officials travelled abroad” to asses credibility Steele p182. [Liar, liar pants on fire!]

https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status/1208894818790891520

Lindsey Graham Promises to Call in EVERY PERSON Who Signed Bogus Carter Page FISA Warrants …Comey, McCabe, Yates, Rosenstein     https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/12/huge-lindsey-graham-promises-to-call-in-every-person-who-signed-bogus-carter-page-fisa-warrants-comey-mccabe-yates-rosenstein-video/

WSJ: FISA Court Owes Some Answers

Why did the presiding judge stonewall Rep. Devin Nunes when he reported FBI abuses?

    On Feb. 7, 2018, Devin Nunes, then chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, sent a letter to Judge Collyer informing her of its findings in his probe of the FBI’s Page application…

   Judge Collyer responded a week later, with a dismissive letter that addressed only the last request…

   Mr. Nunes tried again in a June 13, 2018, follow-up letter, which I have obtained. He told the court that Congress “uncovered evidence that DOJ and FBI provided incomplete and potentially incorrect information to the Court,” and that “significant relevant information was not disclosed to the Court.”…

    Judge Collyer blew him off. Her letter on June 15, 2018, is four lines long. She informs Mr. Nunes she’s received his letter. She says she’s also received his classified information. She says she’s instructing staff to provide his info to “the judges who ruled on the referenced matters.” She thanks him for his “interest” in the court… The court at the very least had an obligation to demand answers from the FBI and the Justice Department…Judge Collyer’s dismissive letters made clear just what the court thought of Congress poking its nose into the secret club…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fisa-court-owes-some-answers-11576799937?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/2PRmVkW6dt

FISA Court Chief Judge Rosemary Collyer will resign, purportedly for health issues.  Chief Justice Roberts has tapped Judge James Boasberg, a BHO appointee, to fill her spot on the court.

Chgo Trib’s John Kass: Will Washington media expose the liars who spun the Trump-Russia hoax?

The Russia hoax caused great damage to the credibility of institutions essential to a functioning republic, including the FBI, the intelligence services, the presidency, Congress and, yes, even journalism…But after three years of over-the-top cheerleading for “The Resistance,” and soiling itself in the Russia hoax, does the media have any credibility?…

https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-trump-russia-media-kass-20191220-dqojm2udb5cijeorargohcznmu-story.html

Italian prosecutors believe that Joseph Mifsud the man who started RussiaGate, ‘is Dead’

Now we know different and there is enough information surfacing to suspect that Mifsud did not have ties to Russia but was a western intelligence asset, as suggested by his attorney… [or in protective custody]

https://saraacarter.com/italian-prosecutors-believe-that-joseph-mifsud-the-man-who-started-russiagate-is-dead/

AG Barr: Soros-funded Dem prosecutor candidates will lead to increased crime, fewer police officers – “There’s this recent development [where] George Soros has been coming in, in largely Democratic primaries where there has not been much voter turnout and putting in a lot of money to elect people who are not very supportive of law enforcement and don’t view the office as bringing to trial and prosecuting criminals but pursuing other social agendas,” Barr told Martha MacCallum. “They have started to win in a number of cities and they have, in my view, not given the proper support to the police.”

https://www.foxnews.com/media/ag-barr-soros-funded-democratic-prosecutor-candidates-will-lead-to-increased-crime-police-department-vacancies.amp

Soros Group Has Given $1.5 Million to Organization Closely Linked To Fusion GP

https://dailycaller.com/2019/12/20/soros-million-fusion-gps/

@realDonaldTrump: Nancy Pelosi is looking for a Quid Pro Quo with the Senate. Why aren’t we Impeaching her?

Former NSA Director Is Cooperating With Probe of Trump-Russia Investigation

Rogers has met the prosecutor leading the probe, Connecticut U.S. Attorney John Durham, on multiple occasions, according to two people familiar with Rogers’s cooperation. While the substance of those meetings is not clear, Rogers has cooperated voluntarily, several people with knowledge of the matter said… “He’s been very cooperative,” one former intelligence officer who has knowledge of Rogers’s meetings with the Justice Department said… [The NSA has all communications.  Please recall that we mentioned that allegedly NSA offered Hillary’s expunged 33k emails to Comey and Jim refused them.]

https://theintercept.com/2019/12/20/michael-rogers-nsa-trump-russia/

Brennan is reportedly in Durham’s crosshairs.  After Trump won the Republican nomination in the summer of 2016, then Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) on CNN said the intel community should give Trump fake intel briefings.  And Reid got the dossier from Brennan around that time.  https://twitter.com/RoscoeBDavis1/status/1208046275708555265

Reid wrote a letter to Comey about the dossier and alleged Trump links to Russia on August 27, 2016.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3035844-Reid-Letter-to-Comey.html

Two Colleagues Contradict Brennan’s Denial of Reliance on Dossier   May 15, 2018

Recently retired National Security Agency Director Michael Rogers stated in a classified letter to Congress that the Clinton campaign-funded memos did factor into the ICA. And James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, conceded in a recent CNN interview that the assessment was based on “some of the substantive content of the dossier.”…

    These accounts are at odds with Brennan’s May 2017 testimony before the House Intelligence Committee that the Steele dossier  was “not in any way used as the basis for the intelligence community’s assessment” that Russia interfered in the election to help elect Donald Trump. Brennan has repeated this claim numerous times, including in February on “Meet the Press.”…

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2018/05/14/2_colleagues_contradict_brennan_on_use_of_dossier.html

Ex-FBI official gets 7 days jail for accessing anti-Mueller activist’s emails

Mark Tolson, 60, pleaded guilty in September to a single misdemeanor charge of computer fraud and abuse for his unusual effort last fall to derail eccentric Washington lobbyist Jack Burkman’s attempt to obtain information to 

be used in sexual misconduct allegations against Mueller… Tolson’s wife, Sarah Gilbert Fox, facilitated the illicit access by providing Burkman’s email password, which she had obtained for work she’d previously done for him…

   “This is actually a very serious offense,” Brinkema said. “You’re lucky. Your wife is lucky. The government could have prosecuted her as well.”… [Is this a plea deal?  If so, quid pro quo?]

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/20/ex-fbi-official-mark-tolson-jail-088787

Zelensky unexpectedly won the Presidency of Ukraine on April 21, 2019.  Hunter Biden resigned from the Burisma board on the same day that his father Joe announced his run for president, April 25, 2019.

Comprehensive timeline on Ukraine-US intrigue

https://www.justsecurity.org/66271/timeline-trump-giuliani-bidens-and-ukrainegate/

@GoodwinMJ: Centre-left at latest election – UK Labour: Lowest seats since 1935; Austria: Lowest since 1945: Germany: 2nd lowest since 1949: France: Lowest ever; Italy: Lowest ever; Netherlands: Lowest ever; Sweden: Lowest since 1908; Finland: 2nd lowest since 1962 – Maybe it’s not just about Brexit?

It’s similar to the US.  People that used to be center-left are more far left or have turned center-right.

@MarkSimoneNY: America is not very interested in the Democrat debates. Lowest ratings ever for Primary debates [last Thursday]. The ratings for this week’s debate down 65% from the first debate.

 END

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Michael Snyder

This Is America: 10 Examples That Show How Dramatically The U.S. Has Changed

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

One thing that you can count on in life is that things are going to change. And these days the pace of change in America is absolutely breathtaking. Our culture is in the process of being radically transformed, and the direction of that change has not altered very much at all no matter which political party has been in power in Washington. Many of the values that are now embraced by a solid majority of the population run directly counter to the values that once dominated our society, but only a small minority of Americans seem alarmed by that fact. It appears to be exceedingly unlikely that there will be any deviating from the path that our nation has chosen, because at this point the American people seem quite satisfied with the dramatic “progress” that is taking place.

So what do you think?

Are we on the right track as a nation?

As you ponder that question, here are 10 examples for you to consider that show how dramatically the U.S. has changed as we approach 2020…

#1 The ACLU has started a campaign to make tampons available in all men’s restrooms across America

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) is calling for men’s restrooms to include tampons in order to prevent discrimination against “every person who menstruates.”

“While free menstrual products are not uniformly provided in women’s restrooms, they are almost never available in men’s restrooms, even for pay,” the group said in a statement Tuesday.

#2 Senseless violence is on the rise all over the country. On Sunday, we witnessed the worst mass shooting in the city of Chicago “since at least 2013”

Chicago police are questioning a person of interest after 13 people were wounded, four of them critically, during a shooting inside a memorial gathering early Sunday in the Englewood neighborhood on the South Side, authorities said.

More people were wounded in the shooting than at any other in the city since at least 2013, when 13 people were shot in Back of the Yards, according to data gathered by the Tribune.

#3 It has been another banner year for homicides in the Baltimore area, and 7 more people were shot outside of a hookah lounge very early on Sunday morning

After seven people, including three teenagers, were shot outside a downtown hookah lounge early Sunday morning, Baltimore leaders are again looking for answers to stem what police are calling a “brazen” level of violent crime.

Two unidentified men — one armed with a rifle and the other, a handgun — approached a crowd of people standing in line outside the iVilla Hookah Lounge at 225 Park Ave. around 1:45 a.m. and opened fire, striking and wounding seven people, Baltimore police said.

#4 State legislators in California keep talking about how much they love “education”, but once again California has the highest percentage of residents that “have never completed ninth grade”

California once again ranked No. 1 among the 50 states for the percentage of its residents 25 and older who have never completed ninth grade and 50th for the percentage who have at least graduated from high school, according to new five-year estimates (2014-2018) released Thursday by the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.

#5 Speaking of California, Dr. Marc Siegel says that San Francisco has become a city that is “awash in human waste” because of all the drug addicts that are pooping wherever they feel like doing so…

Fox News medical correspondent Dr. Marc Siegel says San Francisco residents should be worried about the homeless crisis‘ effect on their health after video surfaced of a homeless man defecating in the middle of an aisle at a local grocery store.

“Isn’t it ironic that a city of germaphobes, of exercise-conscious, environmentally conscious [people] … are now in a city that’s awash in human waste, which is spreading hepatitis A outbreaks every year,” Siegel said on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” Tuesday. “Big outbreaks of hepatitis A, rats in the streets feeding off of the garbage in sewage, typhus, typhoid fever, rotten bacterial infections and even the plague may be coming.”

#6 In our “if it feels good, do it” society, all of the traditional rules regarding sex, marriage and family have been discarded. This has paved the way for completely new “arrangements” that would have seemed extremely bizarre to past generations of Americans. For example, one polyamorous woman in Florida has decided to raise her coming baby with all four of her “partners”

Tory Ojeda, 20, from Jacksonville, Florida, met one of her partners Marc, 18, in high school and then started a relationship with Travis, 23, two months later.

Their love story began three years ago and she has since announced her engagement to Travis in July.

She also found love with their long-term mutual friends Ethan, 22, and Christopher, 22. While seven months ago, Tory and Chris found out that they were pregnant with a baby girl.

#7 Last week, the fact that a man was just sentenced “to more than 15 years in prison for burning an LGBTQ flag” made headlines all over the nation

A man has been sentenced to more than 15 years in prison for burning an LGBTQ flag that was flying at a church in central Iowa.

Adolfo Martinez, 30, of Ames, was sentenced Wednesday to 15 years for the hate crime of arson, as well as a year for the reckless use of explosives or fire, and 30 days for harassment. The sentences are to be served consecutively, Story County court records show.

#8 Meanwhile, illegal immigrants can commit serious crime after serious crime in the state of California and just keep getting released. The following comes from the official White House website

A citizen of Guatemala and alleged gang member was arrested by SFPD more than 10 times between 2013 and 2017 for charges including rape, domestic battery, second degree robbery, assault, and vehicle theft. On each occasion, ICE requested notification of his release or transfer of the individual to ICE custody. Each time, ICE’s request was declined.

#9 In her brand new Netflix stand-up special, Michelle Wolf told America that getting an abortion made her feel like a “god”

“You can feel any way you want after an abortion,” Wolf said, before imploring members of the crowd to “get one” and see how they feel afterward.

The comic went on to describe her own emotions after getting a termination. “You know how my abortion made me feel? Very powerful,” she boasted,” according to the Daily Wire. “I walked out of there being like, ‘Move over Morgan Freeman, I am God!”

 

#10 30 years ago, about two-thirds of the population of the country attended church services at least somewhat regularly. But today, only about one-third of all Americans say that they attend church services regularly

About one-third of Americans now say they worship weekly and two-thirds say they rarely or never attend a service.

The decline in attendance is real. The northern states are seeing much more decline than southern states.

Of course the examples I have just shared with you are just the tip of the iceberg.

In America today, the suicide rate is at an all-time high, we are fightingthe worst drug crisis in our historyaccording to the CDC more than 110 million Americans have an STD, and we have the highest percentage of children living with a single parent of any nation in the entire world.

I would love to hear someone out there try to make a coherent case that America is actually moving in the right direction, because up to this point I have been completely unable to find anyone that can make the other side of the argument.

And that is because it has become glaringly obvious that we are in the process of committing national suicide.

The change that our country needs is not going to happen in Washington.

What we really need is a fundamental change of direction in our hearts, because it is in our hearts where the real problem is festering.

end

Well that is all for today

 

I will see you TUESDAY night. BUT NOT WEDNESDAY

A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU ALL

HARVEY

 

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