JAN 7//GOLD UP FOR THE 10TH STRAIGHT DAY UP $7.00 TO $1572.60// SILVER IS UP 23 CENTS TO $18.37//ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP FOR GOLD //HUGE NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR GOLD//DO NOT HAVE CONFIRMATION BUT 5 ROCKETS FIRED FROM IRANIAN MILITIA HITS USA BASE IN TAJI IRAQ//CHINA WILL NOT INCREASE ITS AGRICULTURE PURCHASES FROM THE USA: IS PHASE ONE OVER??//EUROPE SCRAMBLES RE; THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL//IRAN BURIES SOLEIMANI AND NOW MULLS THEIR REVENGE..IF ANY!!//THE REPO MESS IS BACK!!: FED SUPPLIES 99 BILLION IN LIQUIDITY AND ANOTHER REPO TERM IS OVERSUBSCRIBED//REPUBLICANS GOING AFTER I.G ATKINSON FOR LYING TO CONGRESS ON THE WHISTLEBLOWER DEAL THAT STARTS THE IMPEACHMENT PROCESS//MORE SWAMP STORIES///

GOLD:$1572.60 UP $7.00    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.37 UP 23 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold :  $1574.80

 

silver:  $18.43

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 192 NOTICE(S) FOR 19200 OZ (0.5972 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2312 NOTICES FOR 231200 OZ  (7.191246 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 315 for 1,575,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7898 UP 112 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8164 UP 403

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 130 CONTRACTS FROM 233,728 DOWN TO 233,598 WITH THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  3058 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3058 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3058 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3058 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 15.29 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

1.515     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 3 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 2928 CONTRACTS. OR 14.645 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

6516 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6516 CONTRACTS) OR 32.580 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1629 CONTRACTS OR 8.145 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  32.58 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.46% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          32.58   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 32.58 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 130, DESPITE THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /MONDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3058 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 2928 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3058 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 130 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.14 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.148 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 164% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 1,515,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 6029 CONTRACTS DOWN 794,151 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR ALL TIME RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG  $15.40 PRICING GAIN ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// / WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING YESTERDAY

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,595 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  15,492 CONTRACTS APRIL: 103 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 791,081,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9566 CONTRACTS: 6029 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 15,595 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9566 CONTRACTS OR 956,600 OZ OR 30.30 TONNES.  MONDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $15.40 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 29.75  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $15.40) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (29.75 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 29,081 CONTRACTS OR 2,908,100 oz OR 90.45 TONNES (4 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7270 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 90.45 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 90.45/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.54% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     490.45  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 90.45 TONNES

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A HUGER SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6029 DESPITE THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK MONDAY($15.40)) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 15,595 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 15,595 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 9566 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

15,595 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6029 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 29.75 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN PRICE OF $15.40 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A GOOD GOLD DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES INTO THE INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

JAN 7/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 896.18 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY

MASSIVE FRAUD..WITH SILVER UP 10 STRAIGHT DAYS ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 7/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360,226 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 130 CONTRACTS from 233,728 DOWN TO 233,598 AND CLOSER TO A NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 1/2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 966

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  3058  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3058 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 130  CONTRACTS TO THE 3058 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2928 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14.645 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 1.515 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3058 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.39 POINTS OR 0.69%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 95.87 POINTS OR 0.34%   /The Nikkei closed UP 370.86 POINTS OR 1.60%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.26%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9413 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9413 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9397 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

a)CHINA/USA

China surprisingly issues a USA travel warning amid the threats of terrorism by Iran

(zerohedge)

b)CHINA

As promised to you, China will not increase grain import quotas despite their promise to buy more American. Looks like a trade bust!!
(ZEROHEDGE)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE/IRAN

Europe now scrambles as Iran negates their Iranian nuclear deal.

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/IRAQ/SAUDI ARABIA/USA

It looks like Soleimani was a peace mission trying to mend relations with Saudi Arabia.  Soleimani and his no 2 Abdu Mahdi were invited quests of Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi…and that was the reason they traveled in the open. As the Americans discovered his travel plans, it is quite logical that Soleimani was set up.

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN/SYRIA/IRAQ/GAZA STRIP ISRAEL, LEBANON
Here is how Iran funnels money to its affiliates in the Middle east to orchestrate terror
(zerohedge)
iii)IRAN/USA
Iran is evaluating 13 retaliatory scenarios to inflict its historic nightmare on the USA
(zerohedge)

iv)IRAN

Dozens killed during the Soleimani funeral as the mourners stampeded the procession

(zerohedge)

v)RUSSIA/SYRIA/IRAN

Putin makes a surprise visit to Damascus for a military briefing on the uSA Iran crisis.  Iran has a huge presence in Syria and the uSA wants them out
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

INDONESIA/JAKARTA

Jakarta is sinking fast as continue rains are flooding the city

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A very important read on the flow of gold heading to eastern nations.  The East tends to buy gold when prices are low and the West buys gold when it is rising in price

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs//Koos Jansen//GATA)

ii)Technical analysis on gold.  I would not put much faith in the data as technical analysis does not work in a manipulated market

(Bloomberg/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)The trade deficit shrinks last month but is Trump winning?

(zerohedge)

b)USA Factory orders

USA Factory orders tumbles hugely but iSM confirms that the service sector is fine as it rebounded exactly as Markit described yesterday

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Skyrm vs Poszar:  

repo panic returns as the Fed injects 99 billion in liquidity and for the first time in 4 sessions we have an oversubscribed term repo. The reason for some of this injection is due to the prior temporary repo maturity.  It now seems that the Fed is trapped and needs to continue to provide liquidity.

(zerohedge)

b)Puerto Rico cannot get a break: another earthquake pummels the island (either 6.4 or 6.6)

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)This is a good one:

Seems that IG Atkinson lied in testimony and the Republicans wants the release of his testimony.  The Democrats are frightened out of their minds to release the stuff

(zerohedge)

b)The Democrats are continually losing ground as they expound on the virtues of the criminal mass murderer Soleimani

(zerohedge)

c)What a travesty of justice;  Michael Flynn may get up to 6 months in prison for “lying” to prosecutors,  He  was set up and those who did the deed should go to jail instead of him

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY HUGE SIZED 6029 CONTRACTS AT 791,081, MOVING AWAY FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE  THE GAIN OF $15.40 IN GOLD PRICING // MONDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 15,595 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 15,492  AND APRIL: 103  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 15,595 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG 9566 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 15,595 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A HUGE SIZED 6029 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $15.40). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED A VERY STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED  9566 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  9566 CONTRACTS OR 956,600 OZ OR 29.75 TONNES.  

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  791,081 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 79.10 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,469 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,460/2200 OR 111.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 238 open interest left to be served upon, for a GAIN of 63 contracts.   We had 80 notices served up on Monday so we surprisingly gained another strong 143 contracts or an additional 14,300 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF 14,895 in contracts UP to 534,561.  

March received another 32 contracts to stand at an open interest of 158.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 5307 contacts up to 142,219 oi contracts.

We had 192 open interest notices served upon today for 19,200 FELL

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY SMALL SIZED 130 CONTRACTS FROM 233,728 DOWN TO 233,598 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND MONDAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a LOSS of 79 contracts DOWN to 5. We had 80 notices served on Tuesday, so we gained 1 contract or an additional 5,000 oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!! Our bankers have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a GAIN of 37 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  502.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 875 contracts DOWN to 182,306

 

 

We, today, had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 436,123 contracts 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 623,136 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 7/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
192 notice(s)
 19200 OZ
(0.5972 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
251 contracts
(25100 oz)
0.7807 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2312 notices
231200 OZ
7.1912 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into everybody else: 0 oz

 

 

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 5114 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 192 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 28 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2312) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (238 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (192 x 100 oz per contract) equals 235,800 OZ OR 7.3343 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2312 x 100 oz)  + (238)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (192 x 100 oz )which equals 235,800 oz standing OR 7.2243 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED A STRONG 143 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 14,300 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.141 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    7.3343 TONNES

 

total: 128.780 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 129.229  tonnes

 

Thus:

129.229 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 109.975 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.141 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,335,197.153 oz or  41.53 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 109,764.35 oz (34.141 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  109,764.25  (34.141 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,703,641.119 oz 270.71 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 7
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 26,061.572 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,403.330 oz
brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4 contracts
 20,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  315 contracts

1,575,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into Brinks: 600,403.330 oz,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  600,403.330  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks; 1,000.000 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 25,061.572 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 26,061.572   oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) Out of CNT:  5,222.803 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this lands into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  84.716 million

total dealer + customer silver:  319.730 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 315 x 5,000 oz =1,575,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (5) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 315 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (5)- number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz equals 1,510,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  106.833 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 146,036 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 146,036 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 730.0 million  OZ   104.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.25% ((JAN 7/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.90% to NAV (JAN 7/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.25%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.73 TRADING 15.17///DISCOUNT  3,54

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 8/

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 7/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 896.18 tonnes

*IN LAST 738 TRADING DAYS: 41.27 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 638 TRADING DAYS: A NET 125.78 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

 

 

JAN 7.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

360.226 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.96/ and libor 6 month duration 1.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .07

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.91%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.04

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A very important read on the flow of gold heading to eastern nations.  The East tends to buy gold when prices are low and the West buys gold when it is rising in price

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs//Koos Jansen//GATA)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: The East-West ebb and flood of gold

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Asia tends to buy gold when it’s on sale, with the aim of long-term accumulation, Voima Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes today, while the West tends to buy it when the price is rising with the aim of hedging against short-term financial disturbances.

Nieuwenhuijs’ analysis is headlined “The East-West Ebb and Flood of Gold” and it’s posted at Voima Gold here:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/the-west-east-ebb-and-flood-of-gold

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Technical analysis on gold.  I would not put much faith in the data as technical analysis does not work in a manipulated market

(Bloomberg)

 

Gold ‘overbought’? Yes, insofar as 95% of what people think they own doesn’t exist

 Section: 

But not because of trading data when central banks are surreptitiously manipulating the market.

* * *

Gold Has Been This Overbought Only Three Times in Two Decades

By Ye Xie
Bloomberg News
Monday, January 6, 2020

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-06/gold-has-been-this-ov…

Gold is almost guaranteed to record losses in the next two weeks, if history is any guide.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index for the yellow metal soared to 86 today, well above the level of 70 that typically suggests securities are overbought. Previously, there have been only three times since 2000 when the RSI rose above 85, and in each instance bullion fell over the next 10 trading days. The loss averaged 1% compared with a gain of 7% over the previous 10 session.

To be sure, in all three occasions — October 2010, February 2016, and June 2019 — gold eventually resumed its rally. But the momentum had slowed. Gold performs best when interest rates fall and the dollar weakens. Without a further escalation of Middle East tensions, the bulk of the moves in rates and the dollar may be over for now. And the same is probably true for the bounce in gold, at least in the short term.

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

J. Johnson’s commentary

      Struggle as they may, precious metals are here to stay. Why? Because money is not earned by the banks, they simply print it to keep control of everything (for now) with Gold being held in check after yesterday’s little wake up with the trade at $1,567.30, down $1.60 after being knocked down to $1,557.00 with the high so far at $1,572.70. Silver is doing the same, held in place by the Papier-mâché of the markets with its price at $18.115, down 6.4 cents and recovering from the low at $17.975 with the high at $18.255. The US Dollar’s trade now sits at 96.475, up 12.5 points and right by the high at 96.520 with the low at 96.310. Of course, all of this was done while we slept, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and still no impeachment papers by Nancy.

      The fiat issues may really be percolating and showing up first in the emerging markets as Silver lost more value in all 3 currencies we watch, than what was gained during yesterday’s rally which set off the algo emergency control mechanism. Maybe the volatility from yesterday has a far broader meaning for those involved in the global currency swaps. Imo, a war with Iran simply isn’t a big enough issue to cause all the (real and fiat) currency swings. Could it be the Iran issue is a head fake? For instance, in Venezuela, Gold’s price now rests at 15,653.41 Bolivar showing a pullback of 114.86 with Silver at 180.924 Bolivar proving a loss of 3.495 (when it gained 2.447 yesterday). In Argentina, Gold’s price is now at 93,600.33, proving a loss of 707.39 A-Peso’s as Silver loses 20.81 (yesterday’s gain was 14.72), with the price now at 1,081.38 A-Pesos. In Turkey, the Lira has Gold’s value at 9,363.75 showing a 71.40 T-Lira drop in value with Silver now at 108.213, it too, losing 2.143 T-Lira (yesterday’s trade was a 1.515 gain). Silver is and will, become more volatile, stay tooned!

      January Silver Delivery Demands now show a count of 6 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts proving a drop of 78 obligations from yesterday’s trade with the receipts either being given here at the Comex, or sent over to EFP-Island and with a single trade done so far at $18.015 today. Yesterday’s activity in the delivery month was pathetic as only a Volume of 3 was posted with a trading range between $18.105 and $18.025 with an adjusted closing price at $18.097.

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest, which is totally ignored by those that have no clue how it controls the price, continues to tell the story with the total count now at 234,281 Overnighters, proving the short traders added another 498 more positions in order to tell all of us holders how wrong we are about their claimed price value. At the same time Silver’s OI gained, Gold lost a few shorts after Sunday nights little blast into a 7 year high most likely burying a few unprepared firms.

      As of this morning, Iran seems to be nowhere in the news (except Breitbart), but Weinstein is, not only on the west coast but also the east with some very uncomfortable actors waiting to be outted. Then there’s the recently fired war monger Little Johnny Bolton, who claims to have something to tell as the game of obstruct, delay, f**k sh*t up, moves forward by those that are called deep state. This is the time to look for our Resolute Buyer to step in again. If the price takes a hit, he may be right there, ready to buy more as Deutsche Bank, the criminal element, and other issues that surround the Comex crimes, get ignored by media but not the DOJ.

      Enjoy the day, hold on to the real and buy more physical on the dips. As a cavate, none of this is trading advice what so ever, this is all about holding real money, while the fake gets destroyed inside the control mechanism of the criminal element. Keep the attitudes positive, enjoy the day, and as always …

Stay Strong!

JJohnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

end

 

Mike Maloney, Chris Martenson, Grant Williams, C Hugh Smith and Adam Taggart:

all brilliant individuals.

enjoy this panel discussion on the Fed

 

Behavioral Finance

 

Behavioral Finance

 

end

 

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9413/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9397   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 21.31 POINTS OR 0.69%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 95.87 POINTS OR 0.34%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 370.86 POINTS OR 1.60%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.79/Euro FALLS TO 1.1179

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.101/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.41/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 62.83 and Brent: 68.30

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.29%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.37% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.66: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.41

3k Gold at $1566.35 silver at: 18.12   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.97

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.41 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9709 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0850 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.29%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.80% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.27%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9717..

Overnight Risk Rally Fizzles After Iran Vows “Historic Nightmare” Retaliation

After putting fears about World War III aside on Monday, when stocks opened sharply lower only to close at session highs and the S&P on the verge of a new record, overnight concerns about the impending middle east conflict returned when shortly after 2am ET, Ali Shamkhani, the head of Iran’s national security council, roiled markets when he said thatIran is evaluating 13 possible retaliations on the U.S. for killing a Solemaniadding that “even if the weakest of these scenarios gains a consensus, its implementation can be a historic nightmare for the Americans.” The menacing comments from Shamkhani briefly roiled markets, and established a ceiling for the Emini.

Following the Iranian threat, S&P 500 futures gave up all of the morning’s advance before steadying. Despite the wobble in S&P futures, world shares steadied in delayed response to Monday’s US rally, while oil and gold pulled back from multi-month/year highs on Tuesday after dramatic post-new year moves, as investors judged that prospects of an all-out conflict between the United States and Iran had eased.

After a strong rally, oil gave back much of its gains amid signs that Iran would be unlikely to strike against the United States in a way that would disrupt supplies. Brent crude futures fell 44 cents to $68.48 a barrel, having been as high as $70.74 on Monday, while U.S. crude dropped 34 cents to $62.93.

European equities meanwhile rose as much as 0.7%, tracking similar gains in Asia, before cutting gains in half. Technology stocks were among the top picks in Europe, mirroring trends in the U.S. overnight.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan recouped almost all of Monday’s losses, led by health care and consumer staples, and rebounding from a drop on Monday amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Investor concerns over the Middle East flare-up have begun to ease, even as the U.S. ordered additional forces into the region, and Iran said it is assessing 13 scenarios to respond to the American killing of its top general, Qassem Soleimani. Most markets in the region were up, with Japan’s Topix index gaining the most since Nov. 5. Kweichow Moutai Co. and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. led China’s Shanghai Composite Index higher, while Reliance Industries Ltd. and HDFC Bank Ltd. drove gains in India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index.

Meanwhile emerging markets, which had been hit hardest by spiking oil prices, bounced back on Tuesday, with stocks up 0.4%. That left the MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, just 0.5% from a record high.

“Geopolitical risk has always felt much worse for markets in the heat of the moment than it does in hindsight, but it’s always possible that the next one will bring us into a different era,” Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said (see more below).

“Markets got a lift from the lack of follow-through (after the air strike) as yesterday progressed, and by the end of the session had actually staged a reasonable recovery,” Reid added.

With risky assets starting 2020 on the back foot as Tehran and Washington traded threats after a U.S. air strike on Baghdad airport killed a top Iranian commander, on Monday the mood began to calm, helping U.S. shares recover ground. The Dow ended 0.24% higher, the S&P 500 0.35% and the Nasdaq 0.56%.

Marija Veitmane, a senior strategist at State Street, said she sticks to her expectation of a slight improvement in economic and earnings outlook: “The world is well stocked with oil and can stomach short disruptions, while large U.S. shale production should soften its impact,” said Veitmane, brushing aside worries that an oil price spike would dent global growth.

As risk was bid, safety plays were out of favor, with gold retreating to $1,567 an ounce, after scaling a near seven-year peak overnight. At the same time, eurozone government bond yields edged up from around three-week lows. German bunds were little changed while U.K. gilts sold off; the pound gained versus the euro as the U.K. raised its debt-sales target for financial year 2019-2020, spurring bets the government is planning an expansionary new budget that could fuel inflation

The sense of calm also saw the yen lose much of its safe-haven gains, while the dollar advanced versus all G-10 peers; the euro declined even as the region’s retail sales picked up more than forecast in November; separate data showed euro-area inflation accelerated in December in line with the median economist forecast, while core inflation remained unchanged.

The Australian dollar led declines among G-10 currencies, dropping as much as 0.9% on geopolitics. Australia’s currency had weakened earlier after a decline in job advertisements and as the bush- fire crisis boosted the odds for a central bank interest-rate cut.

Curiously, overnight Bitcoin broke above $8,000 overnight and is up 13% since the U.S. drone attack in Iraq last week. Though it is not seen as a safe-haven asset given its wild swings, the surge has coincided with the equities sell off.

Looking at the day ahead now, the highlights in terms of data come in the US with the December ISM non-manufacturing likely to be of particular focus. We’ll also get the November trade balance, November factory, durable and capital goods orders in the US. This morning in Europe we got the preliminary December CPI report for the Euro Area and Italy along with November retail sales data for the Euro Area. Also as mentioned the UK Parliament returns from recess, with MPs due to debate the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,250.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 419.16
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 171.33
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 554.78
  • Nikkei up 1.6% to 23,575.72
  • Topix up 1.6% to 1,725.05
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 28,322.06
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,104.80
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 40,830.27
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.4% to 6,826.44
  • Kospi up 1% to 2,175.54
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to -0.276%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1183
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $68.60/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 1.191%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.409%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $68.60/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,563.51
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.03% to 96.70

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Iran is assessing 13 scenarios to respond to the U.S. killing of Qassem Soleimani, the influential general in charge of foreign operations, and even the weakest of those options would be a “historic nightmare” for the U.S., Ali Shamkhani, the head of Iran’s national security council, was quoted as saying by Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency
  • U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid promised to unleash “a decade of renewal” when he outlines his budget on March 11 as he seeks to ready the U.K. for its departure from the European Union
  • Spain’s Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez looks set to secure the narrowest of victories in parliament on Tuesday to take power in Spain with the backing of the anti-austerity party Podemos.
  • Brevan Howard Asset Management’s flagship hedge fund returned 8.4% last year, building on its 2018 gain and helping to pause a bleeding of assets

Asian equities posted gains across the board following a less pronounced but positive handover from Wall Street in which the major indices experienced a modest recovery from the prior session’s losses. ASX 200 (+1.4%) was propped up by its largest-weighed financials as yields recouped from recent downside. Nikkei 225 (+1.6%) retraced some of the prior session’s hefty losses whilst welcoming recent favourable currency moves. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.7%) conformed to the overall risk appetite – and with the former supported by gains in large-cap financial stocks. China Vice Agricultural Minister said China will not increase annual grain import quotas to accommodate higher US farm purchases. This refutes rumours that China may raise or scrap its corn import quota following a phase one trade deal with the US

Top Asian News

  • China Targets Internet Giants in Antitrust Law Overhaul
  • China’s Next Crisis Brews in Taiwan’s Upcoming Election
  • Disney Faces Pressure to Help Ease Hong Kong’s Housing Crisis

European bourses are firmer this morning, in a turn-around from yesterday’s dismal start to the week (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%). Notably, the Dax, which gave up the 13000 handle yesterday, has stayed well-clear of this mark to the downside; with the bourse having printed a cash high of 13266 and a future peak at 13260. Similarly, in contrast to yesterday, and indeed Friday, sectors are all firmly in positive territory with exception of energy names, where yesterday’s outperformers such as Shell (-0.8%) and BP (-0.7%) are under pressure; although, this is to the benefit of airlines such as Air France (+1.5%) and eastJet (+1.4%). Additionally, this downside in the aforementioned energy names is weighing on the FTSE 100 (+0.1%) this morning; with the bourse relatively flat at present. Other notable movers this morning include, Morrisons (+2.5%) after issuing their Christmas sales update and noting that PBT and exceptionals is likely to be within analyst forecasts for FY19/20. At the other end of the Stoxx spectrum are Standard Life Aberdeen and Man Group with both weighed on by broker moves.

Top European News

  • Premier Oil to Buy North Sea Assets From BP for $625 Million
  • Vestas to Invest in 5,000 New Vehicles in Massive E-Car Push
  • U.K. Soccer Team Sunderland Kicks Off Sale After Fan Backlash
  • Aston Martin Slumps After ‘Disappointing’ Year of Profit Decline

In FX, already feeling the adverse effects of natural disaster, anecdotal data overnight revealed a sharp decline in the number of Australian jobs advertised on the web and in newspapers to highlight the economic impact of the raging bushfires, with dovish RBA implications. Hence, the Aussie has weakened appreciably across the board, with Aud/Usd slipping through 0.6900 and the 200 DMA (0.6897), while Aud/Nzd has also breached a key chart level at 1.0367 (18 December 2019 low) as the Kiwi contains contagious losses against its US counterpart within 0.6642-80 parameters.

  • USD – Aside from gleaning traction from the underperformance in Antipodean peers, the Greenback is consolidating off recent lows vs major rivals on a combination of technical and other factors awaiting further developments on the geopolitical front (namely Iran’s response to the US airstrike targeting and killing a top IRGC leader). The DXY has pared declines towards 96.500 and appears more settled in a 96.620-835 range ahead of the upcoming services ISM that could be pivotal for near term Fed policy given the disappointing manufacturing survey and expectations for a firmer headline than previous.
  • CHF/EUR/CAD/JPY/GBP – As noted above, all weaker against the Buck with the Franc back below 0.9700 and not really inflated by Swiss CPI returning to positive territory in y/y terms, Euro fading ahead of 1.1200 and Loonie losing momentum alongside oil prices in advance of 1.2950 in the run up to Canadian trade data due alongside the US balance for direct comparison. Meanwhile, having met stiff resistance at 108.00 on several occasions of late the Yen is now deriving support from offers said to be capping the headline pair at 108.50, but the Pound has waned markedly after a stop driven rally in Cable on a break of 1.3180 (just above Monday’s peak) to 1.3200+ that pushed Eur/Gbp back under 0.8500 with more gusto and just under 0.8470 before the cross retraced some lost ground.
  • SEK – Some respite for the Swedish Crown via a less contractionary services PMI, but Eur/Sek is still elevated above the 10.5000 level in contrast to Eur/Nok holding shy of 9.8500.
  • EM – Although the Dollar has made advances elsewhere, Yuan strength off a marginally firmer PBoC midpoint fix has bucked the general trend, as Usd/Cnh eases back towards mid-December lows not far from 6.9200 and a series of key chart supports closer to 6.9000 amidst reports from the Chinese side alluding to the signing of Phase 1 in the not too distant future.

In commodities, the crude complex has dropped into negative territory, with WTI and Brent down by around USD 0.30/bbl at present and approximately USD 1.0/bbl at worst in overnight APAC trade. Newsflow from the Middle-East continues to emerge with the latest pertinent reports noting that Iran is, according to a Fars report, considering 13-scenarios as retaliation against the US. Additionally, a Senior Iranian Official has stated that Iran is prepared to come back to full compliance with the Nuclear Deal. Note, Iran has following the assassination of Soleimani made clear that they are to conduct nuclear related operations on their own accord, disregarding the Nuclear Deal; as such, these remarks potentially indicate a pivot in Iran’s stance against the US and Western powers. However, its worth highlighting that the conditions around their potential return to the deal are not known and previously Iran has indicated sanction relief is a pre-requisite for this type of action. Looking ahead, today sees the funeral of Soleimani and as such participants will now be more actively anticipating/awaiting a response from Iran as the initial mourning period comes to an end. Elsewhere, turning to metals, spot gold is back in positive territory after dipping overnight to a low of USD 1555/oz, prices are now comfortably back above the USD 1560/oz mark; but remain well off yesterday’s multi-year high at USD 1582/oz. Separately, iron ore prices are bolstered following on from China’s main steel making city of Tangshan lifted its level 2 smog alert which was implemented late last week.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $43.7b deficit, prior $47.2b deficit
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 54.5, prior 53.9
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. -0.8%, prior 0.3%
    • Durable Goods Orders, est. -2.0%, prior -2.0%
    • Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.2%
    • Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.0%
    • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.1%
    • Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I spent the evening last night taking down Xmas decorations before more bad luck could descend on my flu and bed ridden family. Normally my wife won’t let me anywhere near the decorations as when she last did, 11 months later she found them in such a mess the following Xmas that it took her as long to sort out/untangle as it did to put them up. I’ll let you know how she reacts on December 1st 2020 when the boxes come back down from the attic.

The first full day back for many in the market was busy spent digesting the fallout from the US/Iran tensions. In fairness there wasn’t much new to add from the weekend headlines so for now we’re still in a state of flux as to which way we go next. After the drone attacks on Saudi oil refineries in September there were expectations that the impact would linger for weeks or months, but in reality the market largely moved on within 24-48 hours. This does feel quite different though given the scale of the action and the war of words since. However it would be impressive if market professionals had a clear view on how this will all pan out. If you do though please get in touch and let me know. Throughout my career geo-political risk has always felt much worse for markets in the heat of the moment than it does in hindsight but it’s always possible that the next one will bring us into a different era.

Our oil analyst Michael Hsueh last night suggested that oil infrastructure and shipping is better protected now than it was last year and that the risks of retaliation are perhaps higher away from oil now. This could include cyber warfare. As such he doesn’t think the higher risk premium in oil will last for a prolonged period. See his note here for more.

The good news for now though is that markets got a lift from the lack of follow through as yesterday progressed and by the end of the session had actually staged a reasonable recovery from the lows. In fact the turnaround was so much so that by the close of trade yesterday, the S&P 500 was up +0.35%, recovering from futures being down -0.83% early in the European session. The steady rally puts the index back slightly higher for 2020 now. The NASDAQ also recovered to close +0.56%, and in Europe the STOXX 600 pared a drop of as much as -1.36% to close down ‘just’ -0.41%. Meanwhile oil faded from the highs with Brent crude now trading back below $70/bbl this morning at $68.14. It did touch a high of $70.74 yesterday having closed on Friday at $68.60 and at around $66 on NYE before the strike. For context the last time it closed above $70 was back in May so we haven’t managed that yet in this episode.

Looking at other assets, the move towards safe havens abated somewhat yesterday. The Japanese yen was actually the worst-performing G10 currency yesterday, having been the best-performing on Friday, while gold faded back to close up +0.87%, though this was still its highest level since April 2013. Over in fixed income, 10y Treasuries ended the session +2.1bps, in spite of the fall in yields earlier in the session, while the 2s10s curve saw a slight steepening of +0.3bps. In Europe, gilts underperformed thanks in part to stronger than expected PMI data from the UK (more on that below), ending +3.0bps, while 10yr bund yields ended the session unchanged.

The big event today is the services ISM in the US which will give us hints as to how the US economy closed last year.

Overnight Bloomberg has reported that the US Vice President Mike Pence will deliver an address on the Trump administration’s Iran policy next Monday. Elsewhere, the US denied media reports which circulated a letter suggesting that it had agreed to pull its forces from Iraq. Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the letter was a draft and should never have been sent. Elsewhere the Washington Post reported that senior Trump administration officials have begun drafting sanctions against Iraq with one of the officials saying that the plan was to wait “at least a little while” on the sanctions decision in order to see whether Iraqi officials followed through on their threat to push U.S. troops out of the country.

This morning in Asia markets are following Wall Street’s lead. The Nikkei (+1.46%), Hang Seng (+0.45%), Shanghai Comp (+0.26%) and Kospi (+0.92%) are all up alongside most indices in the region. As for Fx, currencies of oil importing Asian countries like South Korea (+0.599%) and India (+0.301%) are advancing this morning on cooling oil prices while the Japanese yen is down -0.10%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.24% while in commodities spot gold prices are down -0.23%. As for overnight data, Japan’s December services PMI came in at 49.4 (vs. the 50.6 flash) while the composite PMI stood at 48.6 (vs. 49.8 last month).

Back here in the UK, MPs will be returning to Parliament today, where they will resume debate on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill that implements the Brexit deal into UK law. The House of Commons is scheduled to debate the bill over the next 3 days, but with the government having an 80-seat majority in the Commons following last month’s election, there aren’t expected to be any issues over its passage. Elsewhere, the Telegraph reported overnight that the UK government will deliver its budget on March 11. Chancellor Sajid Javid’s first budget is likely to be expansionary as during the election campaign he promised to loosen constraints on borrowing to the tune of up to £20 bn a year for capital spending.

Away from the geopolitical newsflow there were a number of data points to digest yesterday. On the remaining PMIs, the final December services reading for the Euro Area was revised up 0.4pts to 52.8 – a four month high – leaving the composite at 50.9 and therefore the highest since August when it hit 51.9. That composite reading is consistent with growth of around +0.1% qoq in Q4. At a country level we saw a decent upward revision to Germany’s services PMI (52.9 from 52.0) while Italy (51.1 vs. 50.9 expected) and Spain (54.9 vs. 53.9 expected) both beat. For completeness, here in the UK the services PMI rose 0.7pts to 50.0 (vs. 49.1 expected) which helped to hold the composite at 49.3, with sterling up around +0.6% against the US dollar yesterday following the better-than-expected performance. So, overall a modest positive in Europe albeit with the data clearly overshadowed yesterday by the Middle East tensions.

Over in the US the services PMI was also revised up, by 0.6pts to 52.8 which is the highest reading since July. It’s worth noting that the employment component was little revised but nevertheless has nearly fully recovered the plunge that occurred this summer. Finally on the data, German retail sales in November rose by +2.1% (vs. +1.0% expected), while the previous month’s numbers were revised to show a smaller contraction than previously thought.

Looking at the day ahead now, the highlights in terms of data come in the US this afternoon, with the December ISM non-manufacturing likely to be of particular focus. We’ll also get the November trade balance, November factory, durable and capital goods orders in the US. This morning in Europe we’re due to get the preliminary December CPI report for the Euro Area and Italy along with November retail sales data for the Euro Area. Also as mentioned the UK Parliament returns from recess, with MPs due to debate the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.39 POINTS OR 0.69%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 95.87 POINTS OR 0.34%   /The Nikkei closed UP 370.86 POINTS OR 1.60%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.26%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9413 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9413 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9397 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

China surprisingly issues a USA travel warning amid the threats of terorism by Iran

(zerohedge)

China Embassy Issues US Travel Warning Amid Threats Of Terrorism By Iran

The Chinese embassy in Washington issued a travel warning to its citizens living or on holiday in the U.S. of increasing security threats following President Trump’s airstrike that killed Iran’s top military commander major general Qassem Soleimani in Iraq on Friday.

“The Chinese embassy suggests and reminds Chinese citizens in the U.S. to closely watch the security situation, stay alert and take safety precautions, be cautious before going to public places,” the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the U.S. said in a Sunday statement, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warned in a statement that the “criminals” responsible for Soleimani’s assassination will face “severe revenge,” and that his work fighting on behalf of the Iranian people “won’t be stopped by his martyrdom,” according to a statement published on Twitter.

China is worried that Iran-backed Hezbollah sleeper cells embedded in major US metropolitan areas could be activated in the coming days, weeks, and or months could attack soft targets that are not heavily defended, such as restaurants, sporting events, and shopping malls.

 

Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Chad Wolf published a special bulletin Saturday via the National Terrorism Advisory System, indicating that there is no credible terrorist threat but warns of lone-wolf terrorists and cyber-attacks.

Acting Secretary Chad Wolf

@DHS_Wolf

The new @DHSgov NTAS Bulletin on the threat landscape was issued to inform & reassure the American public, state/local governments & private partners that DHS is actively monitoring & preparing for any specific, credible threat, should one arise.

View image on Twitter

China’s travel warning to the U.S. was read more than 130 million times on Weibo, as it appears this could result in lower tourism to the U.S.

“Our fellow compatriots in the U.S., please be careful and stay safe!” one Weibo user said.

 

Since the airstrike, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said Beijing was “highly concerned” about the threat of conflict in the Middle East.

China advocates that all parties should earnestly abide by the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter and the basic norms of international relations,” Shuang said Friday.

“We urge all parties concerned, especially the United States, to keep calm and exercise restraint and avoid a further escalation of tensions,” he added.

The threat of a terrorist attack could lead to lower tourism figures in the months ahead as other embassies will likely warn their citizens about the travel risks associated with the US.

END

CHINA
As promised to you, China will not increase grain import quotas despite their promise to buy more American. Looks like a trade bust!!
(ZEROHEDGE)

Trade Bust? China Won’t Increase Grain Import Quotas Despite Promise To Buy More American

China has pledged to increase more purchases of U.S. farm goods but never confirmed the exact amount for the phase one trade agreement.

Han Jun, the vice-minister of agriculture and rural affairs, was quoted by Caixin on Tuesday as saying Beijing won’t increase its annual import quotas for wheat, corn, and rice, reported Reuters.

This comes at a time when the Trump administration has pressured China to double its $24 billion pre-trade war purchases of U.S. farm goods to nearly $40 billion – a move that would serve as an election win for President Trump and help alleviate pressures on struggling Central and Midwest farmers.

Han is also part of the trade negotiating team, said last month that China would increase annual quotas on wheat, rice, and corn. But as of Tuesday, Han and the trade team have changed their minds saying the quotas “won’t adjust for one country.”

Refinitive data shows purchases of the three grains from the U.S. totaled around $534 million.

“Although there’s certainly types of high-quality wheat that China would look to import, maxing out the tariff rate quota would also weigh on domestic producers,” Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia analyst at INTL FCStone, said in a note Monday.

“China will be facing a tough balancing act of trying to satisfy the U.S. demands for large agriculture purchases, while also not hurting the rural population,” Friedrichs added.

Last month, we said with absolute certainty that China wouldn’t uphold the trade agreement. There’s just no way that China would increase U.S. farm good imports by 235% in 2020. It’s not just because China is protecting its domestic agricultural markets, but rather, it’s because Brazil and Argentina have ramped up shipments of grains to the Asian country.

Goldman Sachs points out in a recent note that any massive increase in Chinese purchases from the U.S. “would likely be hugely disruptive to global agriculture markets, primarily crowding out Argentine and Brazilian supplies that have taken substantial market share since 2017 due to the trade war and much weaker currencies.”

To get a sense of just how improbable such a surge in Chinese imports from the U.S. is, here is a visual representation of what this “disruptive increase” in U.S. agriculture exports to China would look like…

… and also why the assumption in exported quantities to China is, as Goldman points out, thoroughly “unrealistic.”

And while China promised a “best-effort” to purchase $40 billion in farm goods from the U.S. in 2020, it appears hard targets won’t be met. Does this mean more tariffs are on the way for non-compliance?

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE/IRAN

Europe now scrambles as Iran negates their Iranian nuclear deal.

(zerohedge)

Europe Scrambles As Heiko Maas Declares “Beginning Of The End” For Iran Nuclear Deal

Many have naturally predicted that the first two things to go following the Soleimani assassination will be American troops from Iraq and the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Indeed Iran this weekend declared that its conformity to any remaining aspects to the deal will go out the window.

And in confirmation of Tehran’s Sunday “no limits” declaration that it will fully blow past uranium enrichment limits, German foreign minister Heiko Maas warned on Monday the killing of Soleimani marks the “first step towards the end” of the nuclear deal.

“What was announced is not in line with the nuclear agreement… [the situation] has not got easier, and this could be the first step towards the end of this agreement, which would be a big loss,” Maas told German public radio station Deutschlanfunk. “We will now weigh this up very, very responsibly,” he added.

 

File image via YNet News

Meanwhile the European signatories to the 2015 JCPOA, which have consistently attempted to salvage the deal since the US withdrew in May 2018, are urging Tehran to come back to its commitments. Britain, France, and Germany are demanding that Iran reverse the countermeasures adopted since the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the deal.

A joint statement from Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron, and Angela Merkel issued a joint statement on Monday calling for the Islamic Republic to refrain from further “proliferation” and “to reverse all measures inconsistent with the JCPOA.”

However, as Bloomberg notesThe statement was noteworthy for not mentioning Trump or the U.S. action explicitly.”

The Europeans seem to be largely paralyzed in the wake of the unexpected and brazen US action to take out Iran’s most important military general.

 

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas during a prior visit to Iran, file image. 

Bloomberg writes further:

What is clear is that it has taken more than 48 hours for Macron, the U.K.’s Boris Johnson and Germany’s Angela Merkel to issue a common stance calling for a reduction of tensions — showing they may be struggling to hold a united front.

Commenting on the European ambivalence Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Sunday“Frankly, the Europeans haven’t been as helpful as I wish that they could be.”

The US top diplomat added: “The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well.”

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/IRAQ/SAUDI ARABIA/USA

It looks like Soleimani was a peace mission trying to mend relations with Saudi Arabia.  Soleimani and his no 2 Abdu Mahdi were invited quests of Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi…and that was the reason they traveled in the open. As the Americans discovered his travel plans, it is quite logical that Soleimani was set up.

(zerohedge)

Soleimani Was In Baghdad On Peace Mission To De-Escalate With Saudis: Report

In the post-2003 Iraq invasion world based on fake WMD claims, any US official claims based on unspecified “intelligence assessments” should be treated with deep skepticism if not outright rejection. For this reason, many rightly immediately questioned the official Trump administration narrative that Qasem Soleimani was in Baghdad on the night of his death by US drone strike in order to organize more attacks on Americans and US interests. This key claim served as the White House’s post hoc justification for killing the top Iranian general.

And now it has emerged that the slain IRGC Quds Force chief had arrived at Baghdad airport last Thursday night as part of ongoing diplomatic efforts to mediate peace and an easing of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This according to no less than Iraqi (caretaker) Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi.

 

Saudi King Salman, left, speaks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, via AP/Times of Israel.

Iraq had been reportedly serving as intermediary for crucial Saudi attempts at diplomacy which saw tensions soaring between Tehran and Riyadh after a summer of “tanker wars” and the Sept.14 Aramco attacks, widely blamed on Iran and its proxies in the region.

 

Adel Abdul Mahdi told parliament in a speech on Sunday the Soleimani’s killing was a “political assassination” by the US, according to The Daily Mail, which reports further:

Abdul Mahdi suggested that the Iranian military leader was in Baghdad as part of Iraqi-mediated negotiations with Iran’s main regional rival, Saudi Arabia.

He said that Soleimani was going to meet him on the same day that he was killed.

‘He came to deliver me a message from Iran, responding to the message we delivered from Saudi Arabia to Iran,’ Abdul Mahdi told The Washington Post.

The Iraqi leader did not provide any further details.

This would mean the high level assassination further served to disrupt peace efforts on a huge scale — something which Iran hawks, including Israeli government officials, likely saw as an additional benefit to the strike.

Iraq has further identified that Soleimani had been traveling in the capacity of a “formal” and “high profile” guest of the Iraqi government, and had been delivering Tehran’s reply to a Saudi de-escalation letter at the moment he was killed

Journalists and western sources have also separately confirmed Iraqi PM Mahdi’s claim the IRGC general had been engaged as a diplomatic intermediary at the time of his death:

Rukmini Callimachi

@rcallimachi

1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.

Multiple journalists with sources in the administration have since referred to the US justification for the assassination as “razor thin”.

This further helps explain why Soleimani and his entourage, which included Iraqi paramilitary commander Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes — killed in the same attack — were traveling so “out in the open” through Baghdad’s main international hub.

 

Image source: West Asia News Agency via Reuters

Given that a fundamental rationale for a continued muscular US presence in the Middle East is to “thwart Iranian ambitions,” it remains crucial for the hawks to be able to point to the ‘necessity’ of protecting Saudi Arabia.

Hence also the recent thousands-strong troop deployment in the kingdom since September.

Edward Lawrence

@EdwardLawrence

Sources in the Administration as well as in Congress say a classified briefing for members of Congress will happen this Wednesday. The briefing will cover the drone strike on Qasem Soleimani. The briefing will be done by the Dept of Defense as well as State Dept.

At this point it remains dubious that any back-channel peace efforts between Riyadh and Tehran remain open, especially now that Iranian leaders have vowed that a “severe retaliation” is coming.

end
IRAN/SYRIA/IRAQ/GAZA STRIP ISRAEL, LEBANON
Here is how Iran funnels money to its affiliates in the Middle east to orchestrate terror
(zerohedge)

How Iran Is Bankrolling Regional Instability

After top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani was killed by a U.S. missile on Friday in Baghdad, Washington is awaiting retaliation from Iran. The Trump administration has said repeatedly that Soleimani’s assassination was in connection with his role in Iran’s strategy to back different militia other destabilizing armed groups throughout the Middle East. As Statista’s Niall McCarthy shows in the graphic below, data from a report from The Soufan Center sheds light on Iran’s grand strategy and “playbook” in the Middle East.

Infographic: How Iran Is Bankrolling Regional Instability | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran had already started rising in May of 2019 after several tankers were “sabotaged” off the UAE coast. The New York Times reported then that National Security Advisor John Bolton ordered a military contingency plan to be presented to senior White House security officials which involves the deployment of 120,000 U.S. troops to the Middle East. That came after Bolton announced that a U.S. carrier strike group centered around the USS Abraham Lincoln would be deployed to the region along with B-52 heavy bombers.

Iran has not developed its capabilities and regional strength in order to prevail in a conventional 21st century conflict. It has rather focused on pumping money and military hardware into regional allies, proxies and militias with the aim of spreading political prosperity and enabling them to project power in the region and beyond.

Along with training and arms shipments, soft power (financial, political, diplomatic, public relationship and other non-military mechanisms) is an important cog in Tehran’s strategy. This allows it to portray itself as strong economically as well as enabling it to build political support overseas and insulate it proxies and allies. Examples of this include its investments in a major port project in Oman as well as its substantial gas exports to neighboring Iraq. Iran has also taken advantage of the rift between Saudi Arabia, the GCC and Qatar. It has moved to increase food exports to Doha and granted Qatar Airways the use of its airspace.

Given the extent of its regional activities, how much money is it actually pumping into its neighbors? The Soufan Center’s research shows where Iranian money is flowing in the Middle East and where Iranian-backed proxies and militant groups are active. Syria receives an estimated $6 billion annually of economic aid, subsidized oil, commodity transfers and military aid. Iraq receives up to $1 billion, some of which ends up in the hands of militia organizations. Lebanon, which is of course home to Hezbollah, sees around $700 million of financial support, practically all of which goes to the militant group.

end
IRAN/USA
Iran is evaluating 13 retaliatory scenarios to inflict its historic nightmare on the USA
(zerohedge)

Iran Evaluating 13 Retaliation Scenarios To Inflict “Historic Nightmare” On US

Breaking a 5-day silence over its response for the US killing of General Qassem Soleimani, on Tuesday Iran said it was assessing 13 scenarios to inflict a “historic nightmare” on the US. “Even if the weakest of these scenarios gain a consensus, its implementation can be a historic nightmare for the Americans,” Ali Shamkhani, the head of Iran’s national security council, was cited by Fars news agency, adding that, “For now, for intelligence reasons, we cannot provide more information to the media.”

Iranian officials previously said that U.S. forces in the region will be targets, and overnight the Iranian parliament on Tuesday designated the Pentagon and affiliated companies as terrorists. In response, the U.S. issued a warning to shipping in the Middle East over the possibility of Iranian action against U.S. maritime interests, the Associated Press reported, citing a statement.

Soleimani’s death has rippled through the Middle East, with the U.S. and its allies on high alert for a retaliation attack by Iran.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, said Tuesday that the U.S. would suffer consequences for the killing of Soleimani “at a time and place of Iran’s choosing.” Zarif added the U.S. must leave the Middle East and warned that if they don’t, a new multi-generational war could erupt.

 

The leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, told tens of thousands on Tuesday for the burial of Soleimani in the city of Kerman that Iran was ready to “set ablaze those places Americans hold dear” over the killing of the former commander. Thousands chanted “revenge, revenge,” as the IRGC leader declared “we will take revenge. The revenge will be vigorous and unwavering, woeful, and terminal.”

“We will surely take revenge, but if America dares takes any action, we will set alight those places Americans hold dear. They know where those places are.”

BBC Monitoring

@BBCMonitoring

“We will burn the places they love”
IRGC Commander Hossein Salami reaffirms Iran’s vow to avenge the death of Qasem Soleimani

Embedded video

Earlier, President Trump outlined 52 Iranian sites that U.S. forces would attack if Iran dares to retaliate.

And while the world await for Iran to pick one or more of the 13 scenarios, on Monday the Pentagon dispatched additional forces to the Middle East, even as conflicting signs emerged about Washington’s commitment to remaining in Iraq.

The three-ship Bataan Amphibious Readiness Group was ordered to move to the Persian Gulf region from the Mediterranean, where it has been exercising, according to a U.S. official. The group, which includes about 2,200 Marines and a helicopter unit, follows the deployment of about 3,500 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne to Kuwait late last week.

END

IRAN

Dozens killed during the Soleimani funeral as the mourners stampeded the procession

(zerohedge)

Dozens Killed During Stampede At Iranian General’s Funeral

What some observers described as the largest public outpouring of grief in Iran since Ayatollah Khomeini’s funeral in 1989 wasn’t free from bloodshed, as dozens died during a stampede in Monday’s funeral procession for Qassem Soleimani, the iconic Iranian general killed by the US during a visit to Baghdad last week.

According to WSJ, 32 people died during the stampede, and another 190 were injured, as the crowd panicked during the ceremony in Iran’s Kerman province, where Suleimani was set to be buried on Tuesday, after the ceremony was postponed as crowds from the procession blocked vehicles from getting to the cemetery on Monday. Other reports put the death toll as high as 40.

The regime said the stampede was caused by overcrowding, and denied that the stampede was the result of an attack. Government officials said ambulances were ready along the route of the procession in case of an incident.

 

Video from the scene that circulated on social media appeared to show first responders desperately trying to revive injured men lying on the ground.

الحدث

@AlHadath

بالفيديو: تدافع في تشييع في والتلفزيون الإيراني الرسمي يعلن 35 قتيلاً و48 جريحاً

Embedded video

Meanwhile, Iranian leaders issued more threats of retaliation on Tuesday, the fourth and final day of mourning for the general. And as if that weren’t enough, Iran’s Parliament on Tuesday passed a bill labeling the entire US military as a terrorist organization.

I say the last word first. We will take revenge,” said Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaking at Gen. Soleimani’s funeral procession in Kerman province.

“If they make another move, we will set fire to the place they love,” said Gen. Salami, according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency.

In a telling example of just how much time it can take for news to trickle out of Iran, word of the deadly stampede only reached western media outlets early Tuesday morning in New York. Most of the footage from the funeral hit early on Monday, which is when footage of Ayatollah Khamenei chanting at the state funeral (he also appears to be crying).

Imam of Peace / Pray for Peace…

@Imamofpeace

I am not shocked by the incompetence of Ayatollah Khamenei. Much of his prayer recitation over was wrong. He doesn’t know how to pray or structure sentences properly and is totally ignorant of ‘plural and singular’ rules. Yet he’s the “Deputy of the Infallibles.”

Embedded video

But apparently, because of the stampede, Suleimani’s body hasn’t actually been buried yet, and Western media outlets claimed that many of the 1 million or so attendees (roughly 1% of Iran’s population) only attended because they feared retaliation from the state.

END
This ought to infuriate the Iranians more: Javid is denied a visa to attend a UN Meeting
(Jenny Taer/Sara Carter//zerohedge)

U.S. Denies Iran’s FM Zarif A Visa To Attend U.N.

Authored by Jennie Taer via SaraACarter.com,

The United States has denied a visa to Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif ahead of a United Nations Security Council meeting in New York on Thursday, a U.S. official said according to Reuters.

Zarif addressed the U.N. General Assembly in April 2019.

During his speech, he condemned the U.S. for reducing Iranian oil exports as part of a sanctions package following it’s pullout from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in May 2018.

Moreover, Zarif called on the international body “to deny the United States any perceived benefit from its unlawful unilateralism.”

“The United States is also punishing those who seek to fulfill their multilateral obligations under Security Council Resolution 2231, which calls for normalization of economic relations with Iran,” Zarif said while speaking at the U.N.

In July 2019, President Donald Trump signed a sanctions package targeting the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran and anyone who worked with him and his office.

Zarif was sanctioned by the Executive Order shortly thereafter since he “acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” according to the U.S. Treasury.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader who had just killed an American, & badly wounded many others, not to mention all of the people he had killed over his lifetime, including recently….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….hundreds of Iranian protesters. He was already attacking our Embassy, and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Iran has been nothing but problems for many years. Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have…..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!

In recent days, with the U.S. targeted killing of the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Qassem Suleimani, last week in Baghdad, Iraq, tensions have heightened between the two countries.

On Tuesday, the Iranian parliament doubled down by designating the U.S. military and Pentagon terrorist organizations and passed a $220 million budget bill for Islamic Republic’s Revolutionary Guards Corp’s (IRGC) Quds Force to avenge the U.S. for the killing.

The U.S. State Department did not respond to this reporter’s request for comment to confirm that Zarif’s visa was denied. The story will be updated if there is a response.

*  *  *

Still, as Jonathan Turley notes, the decision to deny a visa is an entirely unjustified and unwise move. We host the United Nations and, as long as we intend to do so, we have an obligation to allow travel to the United Nations, particularly by the leading diplomat for a foreign country. We can restrict his movements in the United States, but this should have been approved immediately in line with our agreements.

We can always debate the long-standing question of our hosting of this body. I think it is a point of pride for our country. However, so long as we are the host, we cannot use that status to regulate who speaks to other countries. The United Nations was founded to allow dialogue and exchange, including between countries which might not otherwise speak directly.

end

RUSSIA/SYRIA/IRAN
Putin makes a surprise visit to Damascus for a military briefing on the uSA Iran crisis.  Iran has a huge presence in Syria and the uSA wants them out
(zerohedge)

Putin Makes Surprise Visit To Syria For ‘Military Briefing’ Amid US-Iran Crisis

Russian President Vladimir Putin made an unannounced visit to Damascus, Syria on Tuesday after celebrating Russian Orthodox Christmas (on Jan.7 every year) in St. Petersburg earlier in the day. In a clear signal to the West amid soaring tensions with Iran, Putin attended a high level military briefing at a headquarters in the Syrian capital.

Putin met with Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in what Russia’s Interfax acknowledged as “a working trip”. The timing of the visit is sure to be noticed in Washington, given it comes amid soaring tensions with Iran over the killing of Qasem Soleimani, and as thousands of additional US troops are deployed to the region ahead of looming potential Iranian reprisal attacks.

 

Via Instagram/Syrian Presidency 

It marks Putin’s first visit to Syria in two years, the last time being December 2017. As part of this latest visit, the Russian president briefly toured the streets in and around Damascus’ city center, where he said it’s clear that “peaceful life is returning to the streets of Damascus,” according to TASS.

The two leaders also discussed the retaking of all of sovereign Syria, after over the past month Syrian and Russian air operations over Idlib have stepped up dramatically.

“Talking to [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad, Putin underlined that it can certainly be said now that much ground was covered to restore Syria’s statehood and territorial integrity,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

“The Syrian president showed appreciation for Russia and the Russian troops’ help in fighting terrorism and restoring peaceful life in Syria,” he stressed. “Al-Assad also extended warm wishes to Putin and the whole Russian nation on the occasion of the Christmas,” Peskov said.

EHSANI2@EHSANI22

Putin’s surprise visit to involved meeting Assad at the Russian forces assembly location in Damascus

Both leaders listened to military briefing by the commander of Russian forces operating in Syria

Putin hailed the “huge progress” made to restore territorial integrity

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Crucially, the ad hoc trip did not fall on Putin’s standard schedule of executive level meetings; instead, it was likely initiated to underscore Russia’s military commitment to Syria at a moment the White House has vowed to roll back Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Over the past years both Washington and Tel Aviv have consistently condemned Iran’s military presence in inside Syria — which had even included past visits by now slain IRGC Quds Force General Qasem Soleimani.

Ali@CoolHuh_

Putin and Assad visited the Marian Cathedral, the oldest Cathedral in Damascus which dates back to the beginning of Christianity

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

The trip also comes at a moment that America’s continued troop presence in neighboring Iraq is in doubt. Currently, a political fight is emerging in Baghdad and Iraqi parliament, with momentum definitely on the side of those desirous of telling the Americans to leave sovereign Iraqi soil.

Later in the day Tuesday, Putin visited religious and historic sites in Damascus, including famous churches and Umayyad Mosque.

END

6.Global Issues

INDONESIA/JAKARTA

Jakarta is sinking fast as continue rains are flooding the city

(zerohedge)

66 Dead After Rapidly-Sinking Jakarta Pummeled By Worst Monsoons This Century

Indonesia better hurry up and find a new capital city before its current one sinks into the swamp water and soil.

The death toll from some of the most devastating flooding that has rocked Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta has risen to 66, with two people still missing, according to local authorities cited by CNN.

Flooding that began when Indonesia was hit by some of the most powerful monsoons the country has seen in years. Thanks to its position along the “Ring of Fire”, Indonesia is regularly rocked by devastating tsunamis, earthquakes, eruptions and floods. But the flooding that kicked off the new decade forced thousands to flee their homes, or risk being trapped by landslides.

More than 173,000 residents were seeking refuge on Friday, and it’s very likely that things are going to get worse before they get better. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast to continue for the coming days.

As CNN pointed out, the rainfall is some of the worst Jakarta has seen this century:

The current inundation is some of the worst the Indonesian capital has seen this century. Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency measured 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain at an East Jakarta airport on January 1, the highest flood reading since 1996, Reuters reported.

Jakarta and the surrounding area of central Java, Indonesia’s largest island by population, are expected to be pummeled by up to 4 inches of rain in the next few days.

As search and rescue operations continue, the Red Cross has started spraying Jakarta with disinfectant to stop the spread of dangerous waterborne diseases. Photos from Jakarta and the surrounding area (which, with about 30 million people, is one of the world’s largest cities) show people wading through chest-high water, and using inflatable rafts to navigate city streets.

Around Jakarta, rescue workers and men in orange vests clearing trash and debris could be seen.

Unfortunately, Jakarta’s latest problems are just par for the course. As we pointed out last year, Jakarta is rapidly sinking into the swamp upon which it was built (the already saturated land makes it difficult for the soil to absorb rainwater, contributing to the flooding), and Indonesia is rapidly searching for a suitable location to build a new capital city.

This latest round of deadly flooding will no doubt spur the country to speed up that search.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Chevron has extensive holdings in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.  They are pulling out all of the American workers following the assassination of Soleimani

(zerohedge)

Chevron Pulls US Oil Workers Out Of Iraq

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

Chevron has pulled all of its American oil workers out of Iraq, the company said on Monday, according to Reuters, making it the latest foreign oil company to evacuate staff there at the urging of the US Embassy, following the killing of Iranian Quds Force leader Qassem Soleimani.

Chevron operates in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, much to the irritation of the Iraqi government, and owns and operates a 50% operating stake in the Sarta production-sharing contract, and a 40% non-operating interest in the Qara Dagh production-sharing contract, according to the company’s website.

 

While American workers are being whisked out of the country, local Kurdistan workers will oversee Chevron’s Iraqi operations.

Chevron, America’s second largest oil company behind only Exxon, was blacklisted by Iraq in 2012 for sealing the oil deal with Kurdistan, a move that effectively banned Chevron from signing any oil agreements with the Iraqi government. The Qara Dagh and Sarta blocks that Chevron purchased in part were disputed blocks. The blacklisting, however, have too few teeth to persuade Chevron to drop its Kurdish pursuits.

 

Chevron had already stopped its Kurdistan activities in October 2017 after an independence referendum created further tensions between the Kurdistan region and the central Iraqi government in Baghdad. At the time, Iraqi government forces had seized all oilfields around Kirkuk, taking 350,000 bpd of oil production offline. The oilfields had been under Kurdish control since 2014. Chevron restarted its operations there months later.

Chevron also considered pulling its staff out of Iraq in May of 2019 after the US ordered the evacuation of all non-essential government employees out of Iraq due to security concerns, stating that US citizens in Iraq were, at the time, at a “high risk for violence and kidnapping”.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1179 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.41 DOWN 0.040 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3123   DOWN   0.0048  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.2983 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 17 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1179 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 21.39 POINTS OR 0.69% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 95.87 POINTS OR 0.34%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,26%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 95.87 POINTS OR 0.34%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.39 POINTS OR 0.69%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.26 % 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 370.86  POINTS OR 1.60%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1567.10

silver:$18.15-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.80% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.27 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.79 UP 12 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.37% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.40%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,38 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 98 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.67% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1138  DOWN     .0057 or 57 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.54 UP .127 OR YEN DOWN 13  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3126 DOWN .0045 POUND DOWN 45  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 53 basis points to 1.3017

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 69451    ON SHORE  (UP).

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9433  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9710 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.80 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.29 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.05 UP 37  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 1.49  0.02%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 99.84 POINTS OR .76%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 1.124POINTS 0.22%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 21.10 POINTS or 0.63%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 142.09 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 62.54 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 68.04 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    62.02  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.22 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 22 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  62.59//

 

 

BRENT :  68.17

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.82..up 2 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.31 up 2 basis points…..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1144 ( DOWN 52   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.55 UP .137 (YEN DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.02 UP 34 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3116 DOWN 54  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9728

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.96   DOWN 0.15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3005 DOWN 42 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9451  (ONSHORE)

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9429 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.29%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 120.04 POINTS OR 0.42%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 2.88 POINTS OR 0.03%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.58 CLOSED DOWN .27

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.872%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bitcoin & Bullion Bid As Stocks & Bonds Skid

Overheard as stocks soared last year…

Because fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

China rallied overnight (led by small cap tech again)…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets were more mixed today (Spain lower)

Source: Bloomberg

In the US, Dow Transports outperformed with Nasdaq clinging to unch as Dow, Small Caps, and S&P slipped lower (and in a mirror of yesterday’s close, stocks were weaker into the bell)…

 

AAPL has been stuck around $300 for the last few days as the AAPL vol decoupling may have gone too far…

Source: Bloomberg

Tesla was turbocharged again – tagging $470 record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing the TSLA market cap ever closer to VW’s…

Source: Bloomberg

Equity and credit protection has started to recouple a little…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were marginally higher on the day (long-end underperformed: 2Y unch, 30Y +2bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields extended their bounce off support…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar surged intraday, tagged Friday’s highs and faded back lower (up on the day though)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos extended their post-Soleimani gains…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin spiking above $8100…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver outperformed today as crude slipped lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was up on the day

But silver outperformed…

Almost erasing all of Gold’s relative outperformance YTD…

Source: Bloomberg

As risk premia was wrung out of Oil somewhat today…

 

Finally, as US-Iran tensions escalate, it is cyber-security that is getting a war premium as oil fades…

Source: Bloomberg

And The Baltic Dry (global freight) index is utterly collapsing…

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Stocks Sink As Global Times Suggests China In No Hurry To Sign Trade Deal

Global Times English edition reportedly  quotes China shouldn’t be in a hurry to sign the Phase One Agreement.

A Chinese delegation will likely travel to Washington next week to sign the agreement, experts said. However, specific dates for the delegation’s departure and the signing ceremony are unclear.

As of press time, Chinese officials have not publicly announced details regarding the trip and the signature of the phase one agreement. US officials have been releasing differing information concerning the deal.

US President Donald Trump said in a tweet on December 31 that he will sign the phase one deal at the White House on January 15, and that high-level representatives from China will be present. Chinese officials have not publically confirmed the US president’s announcement.

And this follows comments that China will not increase Ag quotas to meet US demands.

And while the market has been quick to ignore any potential negatives in th etrade deal recently, today it seems to have triggered some algos to sell…

 

Cue Kudlow or Trump comments on how well the trade deal is going.

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/ LATE AFTERNOON

Missile strike reportedly carried out against the USA base Taji, 17 miles North from Baghdad. If true this should be a very interesting evening

(zerohedge)

Missile Strike Reportedly Carried Out Against US Base In Iraq

Following four days of increasingly belligerent threats from Iran and its leadership, unconfirmed reports claim 5 missiles have just struck a US base in Iraq.

The base is called Taji camp, and it’s situated about 17 miles north of Baghdad. Notably, US troops are housed at the camp.

If this is an Iranian attack, it’s notable that it’s coming at the end of the four days of mourning for General Qasem Suleimani, who was killed last week in an audacious drone strike ordered by President Trump while Suleimani was attending a meeting in Baghdad.

Ominously, the heavily-followed (though not official) twitter account @Iran, tweeted a threatening message a few hours ago…

Iran@Iran

Waiting for tonight,
We’ve dreamed of this for so long
Waiting for tonight…

Though the reports are unconfirmed, news of what could be the beginning of Iran’s threatened retaliation for the killing of General Qasem Suilemani inspired a slight pop in crude futures.

Stocks are also unhappy.

END

ii)Market data/USA

US Trade Deficit Crashes To Smallest Since Trump Elected

The trade deficit shrinks last month but is Trump winning?
(zerohedge)

The U.S. trade balance (deficit) narrowed in November to the smallest in three years as exports advanced amid a thaw in the trade war with China, while imports fell to the lowest since 2017.

The overall U.S. deficit in goods and services shrank to $43.1 billion in November from $46.9 billion the prior month – the smallest deficit sine October 2016 (before Trump’s election)

Source: Bloomberg

The figures also suggest the gap may shrink on an annual basis for the first time since 2013.

Aircraft exports decreased notably (Boeing) but Agricultural exports improved…

  • Overall exports of goods and services in November rose 0.7% to $208.6 billion, including gains in consumer goods, capital goods and soybeans.
  • Imports fell 1% to $251.7 billion, with declines in civilian aircraft, consumer goods and petroleum products.

Additionally, in nominal terms, the petroleum surplus edged up to a record $832 million, further boosting America’s new status as a net exporter.

As Bloomberg notes, the report indicates trade is on track to contribute to fourth-quarter economic growth after having weighed on gross domestic product for the previous two periods, though the shift reflects more of a drop in imports than a gain in exports.

So the question is – Is Trump winning again?

END

USA Factory orders

USA Factory orders tumbles hugely but iSM confirms that the service sector is fine as it rebounded exactly as Markit described yesterday

(zerohedge)

US Factory Orders Tumble But ISM Confirms Service Sector Rebound

Following ISM’s ugly narrative-busting manufacturing data and Markit’s rebound-supporting non-manufacturing print, ISM Services is set to break the tie with expectations of a modest rebound in December, and it did, rising from 53.9 to 55.0 (above the 54.5 expectations).

A rebound in sales and production lifted US Services’ activity to a four-month high in December, indicating the broader economy remains stable in the face of further deterioration in manufacturing.

Source: Bloomberg

And so for once, both ISM and Markit are in agreement – Manufacturing is weaker and Non-Manufacturing stronger in December…

Source: Bloomberg

And this ‘soft’ survey data is confirmed by ‘hard’ data as US Factory Orders declined 0.7% MoM in November, down annually for the 4th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

However, while the modest rebound MoM will be touted as significant, Bloomberg notes that the ISM’s non-manufacturing index averaged 55.5 for all of 2019, the lowest in three years and down from 58.9 in 2018.

The annual average for the group’s factory gauge was the weakest in a decade.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Skyrm vs Poszar:  

repo panic returns as the Fed injects 99 billion in liquidity and for the first time in 4 sessions we have an oversubscribed term repo. The reason for some of this injection is due to the prior temporary repo maturity.  It now seems that the Fed is trapped and needs to continue to provide liquidity.

(zerohedge)

Repo Panic Returns As Fed Injects $99BN In Liquidity, Including First Oversubscribed Term Repo In Three Weeks

And just like that, the repo market is on the fritz once again.

More than two weeks after the last oversubscribed term repo operation on December 16, moments ago the Fed announced that Dealers are once again scrambling for liquidity, submitting $41.12BN in securities ($30.7BN in TSYs, $10.42BN in MBS) into today’s 2-week repo operation, which was oversubscribed hitting the maximum operation limit of $35BN.

Today’s oversubscription was ominous because while the liquidity shortage into year-end was expected, and justified the barrage of term repos ahead of the “turn”, the liquidity shortage was supposed to normalize after the new year. Alas, that appears to not have happened, and today’s submission was the highest since Dec 16.

One reason for today’s repo spike is that as we noted last Friday, this is the first week that sees substantial term repo maturities, as follows:

  • $25 billion leaves the market on Monday,
  • $28.8 billion on Tuesday,
  • $18 billion next Friday

But wait there’s more: today’s oversubscribed term repo, coupled with yesterday’s overnight repo surge and this morning’s $63.919BN overnight repo …

means the Fed just injected a total of $99BN to keep the levitation party going, and confirms that the repo market remains paralyzed. Worse, any attempts to drain liquidity from the repo market, or generally slow down the shrinkage of the balance sheet, will be met with failure. It is also another indication that the repo market now holds the Fed hostage, with Powell now trapped in not only injecting liquidity via QE4, i.e., the monetization of T-Bills, but continued reliance on repos in the $250BN range.

Of course, should the Fed threaten to pull even a bit more liquidity than the market is comfortable sacrificing, and stocks get it. The flip side too: as long as the Fed keeps growing the balance sheet at a rate of about $100 billion per month, the market melt up will continue.

end

Puerto Rico cannot get a break: another earthquake pummels the island (either 6.4 or 6.6)

(zerohedge)

 

Power Plants Shut Down As Earthquakes Pummel Puerto Rico; At Least 1 Killed

Puerto Rico just can’t catch a break.

After a series of earthquakes have rattled the island over the past two weeks, a series of even more powerful quakes and aftershocks have followed on Tuesday. The spate of quakes included a magnitude 6.4 quake which occurred at 8:24 UTC (4:24 am local time), according to the US Geological Survey. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center measured the earthquake at magnitude 6.6.

The damage from that quake, the largest in a string of earthquakes that have hit the US territory since late last year, has left one dead, eight wounded and prompted power plants in the US commonwealth to be taken offline.

For some, the destruction probably dredged up memories of Hurricane Maria, which left the island in shambles in 2017, and caused hundreds of deaths.

Though the island’s power authority expects power to be turned back on later in the day, provided that “no other issues materialize,”

Fortunately, Tuesday’s earthquake isn’t expected to cause a tsunami.

According to the New York Times, the series of tremors started with three medium-strength quakes during the night of Dec. 28 and 29.

As emergency services and hospitals switch to back-up generators in the meantime, Puerto Rico’s governor Wanda Vazquez Garced tweeted to the people of the island to remain calm and safe. Public employees were excused from work on Tuesday unless they worked for as first responders.

Wanda Vázquez Garced

@wandavazquezg

Queremos que todos estén seguros. Es por esto que se suspenden los trabajos en el sector público por el día de hoy, para que puedan estar con sus familia, implantando sus planes de emergencia. (1/2)

Wanda Vázquez Garced

@wandavazquezg

Los componentes de seguridad de todas las agencias gubernamentales están activados. Favor mantenerse informados con los boletines oficiales. (2/2) @NMEADpr @AEEONLINE @ACUEDUCTOSPR @DSPnoticias

Wanda Vázquez Garced

@wandavazquezg

La suspensión de labores por el día de hoy en el sector público no incluye a los empleados públicos de primera respuesta. Todos ellos se reportan a sus áreas como de costumbre.

Classes at local public schools, which were scheduled to resume on Tuesday after a holiday break, were instead pushed back until after Jan. 13, giving inspectors time to check buildings for damage.

While reports suggested few were harmed, images flooding on social media appeared to show collapsed buildings and mounds of debris.

rob 🎄@rosesweave

Destructions of what the 6.6 earthquake brought to the south of Puerto Rico. we are scared.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

The New York Times, which has reporters on the ground, talked to some locals who described watching their homes, which have not yet been fully repaired from damages sustained during Hurricane Maria, be leveled by earthquakes.

Among them was Mr. Rodríguez’s house in the Esperanza neighborhood of Guánica, where some of the most serious damage was reported, including five collapsed houses. Now, in addition to the tarp he has had since Maria, Mr. Rodríguez’s house has huge cracks running up and down his green interior walls.

“It cracked open everywhere inside,” said Mr. Rodríguez, 83, a retired bus driver.

The quakes on Monday and Tuesday were so powerful, that the arch on one of the island’s most popular rock formations, known as Punta Ventana, was destroyed.

UPRM Meteorological Laboratory@UPRMetLab

[GUAYANILLA] Desaparece la ventana natural en Punta Ventana, Guayanilla.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Banco Popular announced that its branches would remain closed on Tuesday, while ATMs will work “as long as there is electricity.”

News is my Business@newsismybusines

Banco Popular announced its bank branches throughout Puerto Rico will remain closed today. ATMs will work as long as there is electricity. 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 @popular

1

As Puerto Ricans pray for the quakes to pass, it looks like the island just can’t catch a break from natural disasters, even after hurricane season has come and gone…

end

What a travesty of justice;  Michael Flynn may get up to 6 months in prison for “lying” to prosecutors,  He  was set up and those who did the deed should go to jail instead of him

(zerohedge)

Feds Change Tune, Recommend Michael Flynn Get Six Months In Prison

Federal prosecutors have changed their tune in the Michael Flynn case, recommending that the retired three-star Army general receive up to six months in prison for lying to investigators regarding his contacts with Russian diplomat Sergey Kislyak.

Prosecutors had previously recommended no jail time for Flynn’s cooperation.

Prosecutors noted in a Tuesday filing that while Flynn “has sought to assist and aid the government,” there were periods “where the defendant has sought to thwart the efforts of the government to hold other individuals, principally Bijan Rafiekian, accountable for criminal wrongdoing.”

Flynn is accused of failing to accept responsibility and “complete his cooperation” – as well as “affirmative efforts to undermine” the prosecution of Rafiekian.”

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

Flynn case update:

DOJ reverses prior recommendation and asks that Flynn be incarcerated for 0-6 months.

They previously asked for no jail time.

The 67-year-old Rafiekian, an Iranian-American and Flynn’s former business partner, was charged with illegally acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government.

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

DOJ takes back its previous position that Flynn substantially assisted the Gov’t.

December 2018: Flynn provided substantial assistance.

January 2020: Flynn “has not substantially assisted the Government.”

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

🤡Prosecutor Van Grack:

Flynn’s assistance in the Special Counsel’s investigation was “never substantial.”

How is that possible if Flynn’s cooperation helped them to conclude there was no collusion with the Russians?

View image on Twitter

Flynn is scheduled to be sentenced January 28 after US District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan dismissed Flynn’s request to find prosecutors in contempt and claims of entrapment.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

This is a good one:

Seems that IG Atkinson lied in testimony and the Republicans wants the release of his testimony.  The Democrats are frightened out of their minds to release the stuff

(zerohedge)

Devin Nunes: “Republicans Are Actively Investigating (IG Michael) Atkinson”

Via SaraACarter.com,

Ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee Devin Nunes told The Sara Carter Show that Republicans have an active investigation into Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson, who alerted lawmakers to the so-called whistleblower complaint that has led to President Donald Trump’s partisan impeachment in the House.

Nunes, R-CA, spoke to this reporter for Monday’s podcast.

He revealed that transcripts of Atkinson’s secret testimony will expose that the Inspector General either lied or he needs to make corrections to his statements to lawmakers. The transcripts has been kept from the public by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-CA, because it is damaging to their “impeachment scam,” Nunes said.

The whistleblower, who has not been formally named by lawmakers, met with Schiff’s staff members prior to submitting their complaint to Atkinson. Schiff was chided by Republican lawmakers and many members of the media for falsely claiming that his committee had no contact with the whistleblower.

The Schiff Factor

Schiff stated publicly “we have not spoken directly with the whistleblower.” In fact, the  whistleblower had reached out to a committee aide before filing a complaint, a story that was first reported by the New York Times.

“We really do need to hear from the whistleblower,” Nunes told The Sara Carter Show.

“That needs to happen and the fact that the Democrats won’t release the transcript of us interviewing the Inspector General Atkinson that brought this scam forward. Everyone needs to see that testimony and the reason that it’s not being released is because it’s very damaging, not only to the whistleblower, but also to Atkinson himself.”

Nunes could not disclose the content of the whistleblower testimony but said “this testimony is really bad and…the Republicans have an active investigation into Atkinson.”

Nunes noted that he, along with Reps. Kevin McCarthy, R-CA, and Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, sent a letter to Atkinson stating that the anti-Trump whistleblower did not offer any direct, first-hand evidence of alleged wrongdoing against Trump. They questioned Atkinson’s reasoning for accepting the complaint that is filled with hearsay and rumor.

Atkinson Doesn’t Want To Answer Questions

The Republican lawmakers asked Atkinson to explain who revised the complaint and for what reason.

We’ve mentioned it, but I think people have just kind of ignored it because, of course, we don’t have the subpoena power, so we can’t bring Atkinson back in but he’s got serious questions to answer for because I believe that he either lied to Congress or he really needs to correct his statements and he’s refused to respond,” said Nunes, who could not elaborate on Atkinson’s testimony.

He said that Atkinson’s response to their letter was not sufficient.

 

Atkinson “gave us a very typical IC response, which is to not answer the question,” said Nunes.

“Three years ago, that might’ve worked,” he said.

“It doesn’t work with us anymore. He is under active investigation. I’m not gonna go any farther than that because you know obviously he has a chance to come in and prove his innocence, but my guess is Schiff, Atkinson they don’t want that transcript out because it’s very damaging.

“Being that it hasn’t been made public yet, why would it not be,” Nunes questioned.

“And nobody in the media is calling for it,” he told The Sara Carter Show.

“You’d think they would be, but you know I’ve talked about it on television, John Ratcliffe’s talked about it on television. There’s very few of us that actually know what’s in the transcript, but, yeah, it’s a major problem.”

Well, this reporter is asking for it and it should be made public. American’s have a right to know exactly how the whistleblower complaint was brought to Congress and how this alleged complaint led to the partisan House impeachment of President Trump.

end

The Democrats are continually losing ground as they expound on the virtues of the criminal mass murderer Soleimani

(zerohedge)

Trump Slams Democrats, Media For Describing Terrorist Soleimani As “Wonderful Human Being”

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

“He was designated as a terrorist by Obama, and then Obama did nothing about it.”

President Trump made an impromptu call to conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh’s show Monday, and slammed the Democrats’ and the establishment media’s attempts to frame Iran Gen. Qasem Soleimani as anything but a murderous terrorist.

“He was a terrorist, you know, they don’t want to call him a terrorist. Now the Democrats are trying to make him sound like he was this wonderful human being,” Trump said, agreeing with Limbaugh that the media has been describing Soleimani as being like a “poet.”

The President railed against the “totally fake newspapers” for penning pieces painting Soleimani in a sympathetic light,just as they did when they described the killed ISIS terrorist leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as an “austere religious scholar.”

“They tried to build him up into a relatively wonderful guy,” Trump noted.

The President also slammed the Obama administration, saying that they were “just letting [Iran] get away with murder, in the true sense, murder.”

“This should have been done for the last 15-20 years,” Trump said.

“Him in particular. He was their real military leader. He’s a terrorist. He was designated as a terrorist by Obama, and then Obama did nothing about it.”

“He should have been taken out a long time ago,” Trump added, asserting that “we had a shot at him and we took him out, and we’re a lot safer now because of it.”

Democrats have uniformly criticized Trump for taking out a dangerous terrorist

END

McConnell has the votes to call for a quick trial and acquital of Trump as Schumer cries that there is a cover up to which nobody knows what the coverup is

(zerohedge)

McConnell Wrangles Republicans For Speedy Trump Acquittal As Schumer Cries Cover-Up

Most Senate Republicans have lined up behind Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s plan for a lightning-fast, witness-free impeachment trial which will end with the acquittal of President Trump – much to the chagrin of Senate Democrats led by Chuck Schumer of New York.

McConnell (R-KY) has been unswayed by former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s offer to testify, as well as the recent emergence of emails suggesting Trump’s direct involvement in his administration’s pausing of US aid to Ukraine after asking President Volodomyr Zelensky to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden ahead of the 2020 US election.

Two Republicans who have on occasion broken with Trump and have criticized McConnell’s statements about the trial — Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and Maine’s Susan Collins — say they back his plan to follow the precedent of Bill Clinton’s 1999 impeachment trial by delaying any decision on witnesses.

“I think we need to do what they did the last time they did this unfortunate process, and that was to go through a first phase and then they reassessed after that,” Murkowski said.

McConnell likely has the votes to force the issue without cooperation from Democrats. –Bloomberg

McConnell has guaranteed that Senate Democrats won’t have the 67 votes required to convict Trump and remove him from office. Meanwhile, he can simply point to Clinton’s impeachment as precedent on witness testimony, as it would allow Trump’s lawyers and White House impeachment managers to make their arguments and answer questions from Senators before administration figures such as Bolton and acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney have a chance to speak.

There have been no discussions between McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who can go pound sand as talks seem unlikely.

“If every Republican senator votes for a rigged trial that hides the truth, the American people will see that the Republican Senate is part of a large and awful cover-up,” said Schumer in a Tuesday screed on the Senate floor.

Kyle Griffin

@kylegriffin1

Chuck Schumer: “Whoever heard of a trial without witnesses and documents? It’s unprecedented … Witnesses and documents? Fair trial. No witnesses and no documents? Cover-up. That simple sentence describes it all.” Via ABC

Embedded video

According to Trump, Bolton ‘would know nothing’ about the Ukraine situation.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), meanwhile, has yet to reveal when she plans to transmit the articles of impeachment to the Senate, thereby making Trump’s impeachment official according to House Democratic witness and Harvard Law professor, Dr. Noah Feldman.

Pelosi’s allies argue that the Senate turning down Bolton’s offer to testify under subpoena suggest that Republicans are involved in covering up evidence against Trump.

“McConnell is making very plain he’s not interested in the country learning the full extent” of Trump’s misconduct, according to a Tuesday statement by House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff. “And apparently there are any number of senators willing to go along with that head-in-the-sand strategy,” he added.

end
Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

@bhweingarten: The lesson of Iraq is that there needed to be a Sunni counterbalance to Shia Iran. Bush started to push it out of balance with good intentions.  Obama swung all the weight to the Shia side with the horrible intention of making Iran the hegemon

U.S. Gives Israel Green Light to Assassinate Iranian General Soleimani   Jan 01, 2018

Al Jarida, a Kuwaiti newspaper which in recent years had broken exclusive stories from Israel, says     Israel was ‘on the verge’ of assassinating Soleimani [circa 2015], but the U.S. warned Tehran and thwarted the operation [Team Obama warned Iran about Israel’s operation!!!!]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/u-s-gives-israel-green-light-to-assassinate-iran-s-general-soleimani-1.5630156

We’re old enough to remember when Hillary Clinton orchestrated an invasion of Libya to remove Qaddafi (had him killed) – and Pelosi, Schumer, McCain et al and the MSM thought it was grand.

Devin Nunes: ‘Republicans have an active investigation into (IG Michael) Atkinson’

They questioned Atkinson’s reasoning for accepting the complaint that is filled with hearsay and rumor.

Atkinson Doesn’t Want To Answer Questions

    The Republican lawmakers asked Atkinson to explain who revised the complaint and for what reason…

https://saraacarter.com/devin-nunes-republicans-have-an-active-investigation-into-ig-michaelatkinson/

Hunter Biden linked to 2016 identity theft involving deceased brother

From 2016 when he was allegedly being checked into an unidentified Arizona facility…

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/hunter-biden-linked-identity-theft-case-involving-deceased-brother

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

 

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