JAN 8//WILD DAY: IRAN FIRES MISSILES AT USA INTERESTS IN IRAQ: NO DAMAGE NOR ANY LOSS OF LIFE: GOLD MONKEY HAMMERED DOWN BY OUR CARTEL MEMBERS BY $14.10//SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TO $18.16//VOLUME AT THE GOLD COMEX 104% OF THE ENTIRE OPEN INTEREST// IRANIANS SHOOT DOWN A COMMERCIAL UKRAINIAN AIRLINER WITH 180 ABOARD//HUGE STORIES ON THE IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACK//A FEW SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1558.50 DOWN $14.10    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.16 DOWN 21 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

Gold :  $1556.40

 

silver:  $18.10

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 1/28

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 01/07/2020 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 01/07/2020
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:19:26
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,571.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/07/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/09/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 11
661 C JP MORGAN 8 1
690 C ABN AMRO 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 14 12
800 C MAREX SPEC 2
905 C ADM 6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 28 28
MONTH TO DATE: 2,340

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 28 NOTICE(S) FOR 2800 OZ (0.0872 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2340 NOTICES FOR 23400000 OZ  (7.2783 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

8 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 40,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 323 for 1,615,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8333 UP 185 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8016 DOWN 132

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 726 CONTRACTS FROM 233,728 UP TO 234,324 WITH THE 23 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  2413 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2413 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2413 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2413 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 12.065 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 23 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

1.655     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 23 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 3139 CONTRACTS. OR 15.700 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

8929 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 8929 CONTRACTS) OR 44.65 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1786 CONTRACTS OR 8.929 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  44.65 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 6.37% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          44.65   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 44.65 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 726, DESPITE THE HUGE 23 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2413 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 3139 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2413 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 726 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.37 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.148 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 164% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 40,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 1,655,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5224 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 785,857 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR ALL TIME RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG  $7.00 PRICING GAIN ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// / WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING YESTERDAY

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,658 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  14,658 CONTRACTS APRIL: 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 785,857,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9434 CONTRACTS: 5224 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 14,658 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9,434 CONTRACTS OR 943,400 OZ OR 29.34 TONNES.  TUESDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $7.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 29.34  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $7.00) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (29.34 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 43,739 CONTRACTS OR 4,373,900 oz OR 136.04 TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8747 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 136.04 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 136.04/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     136.45  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 136.45 TONNES

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5224 DESPITE THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK TUESDAY($7.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 14,658 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 14,658 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 9434 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

14,658 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5224 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 29.34 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN PRICE OF $7.00 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

a MONSTROUS PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY

 

JAN 8/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 886.81 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY

 

JAN 8/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 726 CONTRACTS from 233,598 UP TO 234,324 AND CLOSER TO A NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 1/2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 966

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  2413  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2413 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 724  CONTRACTS TO THE 2413 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 3139 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 15.70 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 1.655 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2413 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.91 POINTS OR 1.22%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 234.14 POINTS OR 0.83%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 370.16 POINTS OR 1.57%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .19%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9427 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9427 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9417 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Germany

German car production crashes to a new 23 year low

(zerohedge)

ii)EUROPE

Gatestone comments that Europe is under siege from migrants trying to enter various European countries.  They are being assisted by people smuggling gangs

(Gatestone)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)This is scary!! There are no survivors after a Ukraine bound 737 –. 800 from Tehran crashes two minutes into the flight from the Tehran airport.  THE PLANE GOES DOWN IN A FIRE BALL AND ALSO WHEN IT DISAPPEARED FROM RADAR IT WAS CLIMBING IN ALTITUDE

(zerohedge)

ii)This is no “mechanical failure”..Iran refuses to hand over the black box.  It looks like the plane came in connect with missiles fired from Tehran
(zerohedge)
ii b)  It appears to a “a shootdown” event???? No question about it:  crash site clearly shows projectile holes in the plane’s fuselage and wing

(zerohedge)
iii)Expect more reprisals from Iran as they target soft targets
(zerohedge)

iv)The Ayatollah proclaims that the latest missile attack on American assets in Iraq is a slap in the face to the USA. He hints on more reprisals

(zerohedge)

v)Tanker operations suspend travel through the Straits of Hormuz

(zerohedge)

vi)Bill Blain on yesterday’s events/  The big question is whether Trump will up the ante
(Bill Blain)

vi)TURKEY/RUSSIA/LIBYA

With Hafter’s forces on the doorstep of Tripoli, Erdogan and Putin are demanding that this Saturday is the deadline for an urgent ceasefire.  It has no chances of success.  Erdogan is on the side of the GNA because he wants the Mediterranean oil/gas concessions he won from the Tripoli government.

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

A good explanation as to damaging effects of negative interest rates and for reasons outlined below Sweden has decided to end its experiment on negative rates

(Daniel LACALLE/Mises)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)There are plenty of good reasons to buy gold not just the uSA -Iran tensions

(zerohedge)

ii)A good commentary from Chris Powell has he scolds Bloomberg’s Authers for misleading his readers on the April 13 2013 drive by shooting

(Chris Powell)GATA)

iii)Craig Hemke writes for Sprott and forecasts what to expect in the new year: more debt monetization and rising metal prices

(Craig Hemke)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY GOOD SIZED 5224 CONTRACTS AT 787,679 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE  THE STRONG GAIN OF $7.00 IN GOLD PRICING // TUESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 14,658 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 14,658  AND APRIL: 0  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 14,658 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG 9434 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 14,658 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A GOOD SIZED 5224 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $7.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED A VERY STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED  9434 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  9434 CONTRACTS OR 943,400 OZ OR 29.34 TONNES.  

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  785,857 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 78.58 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,444 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,450/2200 OR 111.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 57 open interest left to be served upon, for a LOSS of 181 contracts.   We had 192 notices served up on Tuesday so we surprisingly gained another 11 contracts or an additional 1100 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF 16,337 in contracts DOWN to 518,214.  

March received another 109 contracts to stand at an open interest of 267.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 7199 contacts up to 149,418 oi contracts.

We had 28 open interest notices served upon today for 2800 oz

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY FAIR SIZED 726 CONTRACTS FROM 233,598 UP TO 234,324 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TUESDAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a GAIN of 11 contracts UP to 16. We had 1 notices served on Tuesday, so we gained 12 contracts or an additional 60,000 oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!! Our bankers have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a LOSS of 22 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  480.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 353 contracts DOWN to 181,958

 

 

We, today, had 8 notice(s) filed for 40,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 821,642 contracts  or  821,642 contracts or 104% of the entire comex gold oi..brilliant!!

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:504,229 contracts

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 8/2020

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 964.50 oz

 

Scotia

 

30 kilobars

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
28 notice(s)
 2800 OZ
(0.0870 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
29 contracts
(2900 oz)
0.0902 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2340 notices   234,000 OZ
7.2783 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into everybody else: 0 oz

 

 

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

i) Out of Scotia: 964.50 oz  (30 kilobars)

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 964.50 oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 8 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 28 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2340) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (57 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (28 x 100 oz per contract) equals 236,900 OZ OR 7.3690 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2340 x 100 oz)  + (57)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (28 x 100 oz )which equals 236,900 oz standing OR 7.3690 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED A STRONG 11 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1100 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.141 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    7.3685 TONNES

 

total: 129.26 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 129.26  tonnes

 

Thus:

129.26 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 110.006 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.141 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,335,197.153 oz or  41.53 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 109,764.35 oz (34.141 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  109,764.25  (34.141 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,702,676.619 oz 270.68 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 8
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 244,486.992 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,102.810 oz
brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
8
CONTRACT(S)
(40,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
8 contracts
 40,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  323 contracts

1,615,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into Brinks: 600,102.810 oz,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  600,102.810  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks; 226,440.200 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 18,0046.792 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 244,486.942   oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

total dealer silver:  84.716 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320,085 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 8 contract(s) FOR 40,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 323 x 5,000 oz =1,615,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (16) and the number of notices served upon today 8 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 323 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (16)- number of notices served upon today (8) x 5000 oz equals 1,655,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 60,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 8 notice(s) filed for 40,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  179,880 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 118,196 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 118,196 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 591 million  OZ   84.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.53% ((JAN 8/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.40% to NAV (JAN 8/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.53%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.52 TRADING 15.02///DISCOUNT  3,22

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

 

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JAN 8/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 886.81 tonnes

*IN LAST 739 TRADING DAYS: 50.64 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 639 TRADING DAYS: A NET 116.41 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

 

 

JAN 8.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

360.226 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.89/ and libor 6 month duration 1.88

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.88%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.07

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Reaches $1,610/oz Prior To Retreating As Iran Attacks U.S. Bases

 Gold surged to a

seven year high at $1,610.90 overnight prior to retreating as markets experience volatility due to the risks of a U.S. retaliation after Iran’s attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq.

 The severe, but long expected, re-escalation of geopolitical tensions led to the gold price surging overnight as speculators go long gold futures and investors diversify into the hedging and safe haven asset that is gold.

 U.S. stock futures tumbled this morning in response to Iran’s retaliation against the U.S. in rocket attacks on two Iraq bases. The S&P 500 index future lost almost 1.5%, breaking down a key support level at 3,200 points.

 Asian and European equity markets followed US futures lower prior to stabilizing, as investors reduced allocations to risk assets and moved into safe havens.

 From a trading perspective, gold is very overbought after the 10% move higher in the last 30 days. However, the scale of the geopolitical uncertainty could see gold stay overbought in the short term.

 If things deteriorate significantly in the Middle East then we will likely see oil prices surge and there is a strong possibility of a massive short squeeze which propels gold (and silver) prices much higher. A close above $1,600/oz should see us move quickly higher to test the $1,700/oz level.

 Gold’s record nominal highs at $1,900/oz (see chart below) may be surpassed later this year given the very strong demand for gold bullion due to the host of financial, geopolitical and monetary risks

 Prudent gold bullion investors will as ever take a long term view and those seeking to diversify and hedge risks with an allocation to gold, should
dollar cost average into their gold holding.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold retreats from $1,600 as markets eye U.S. reaction after Iran attacks

Gold price scales $1,600 after Iran attacks US military base

Gold price surges amid geopolitical uncertainty

Dow futures plunge after Iran retaliation raises fears of bigger conflict

Oil prices surge 4% following attack on Iraq airbase

Iran’s overnight strikes on American bases ‘a slap in the face’ for US – Khamenei

Ukraine International Airline jet crashes killing 176 in Tehran

Precious Metals Update Video: Resistances and supports

 

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

07-Jan-20 1566.50 1567.85, 1190.85 1197.05 & 1402.80 1406.52
06-Jan-20 1576.85 1573.10, 1198.09 1197.29 & 1408.44 1406.51
03-Jan-20 1547.40 1548.75, 1182.37 1184.48 & 1389.57 1387.99
02-Jan-20 1520.55 1527.10, 1151.36 1161.51 & 1358.46 1366.91
31-Dec-19  1523.00,                1157.78 & 1358.06
30-Dec-19  1511.50 1514.75,  1152.37 1152.57 & 1350.22  1351.91
27-Dec-19  1510.60  1511.50, 1156.36 1152.67 & 1356.37  1353.85
24-Dec-19  1490.85                  1152.58 & 1345.94
23-Dec-19  1483.95  1482.10, 1141.90 1133.95 & 1338.97 1334.35
20-Dec-19  1476.90  1479.00, 1132.19 1132.33 & 1328.20 1327.55

Is Your Gold and Silver Bullion S.A.F.E. ?
Segregated, Actionable, Flexible and what are the total Expenses?
Watch Our Latest Video Update Here

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

Gold Reaches $1,610/oz Prior To Retreating As Iran Attacks U.S. Bases

 Gold surged to a seven year high at $1,610.90 overnight prior to retreating as markets experience volatility due to the risks of a U.S. retaliation after Iran’s attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq.

 The severe, but long expected, re-escalation of geopolitical tensions led to the gold price surging overnight as speculators go long gold futures and investors diversify into the hedging and safe haven asset that is gold.

 U.S. stock futures tumbled this morning in response to Iran’s retaliation against the U.S. in rocket attacks on two Iraq bases. The S&P 500 index future lost almost 1.5%, breaking down a key support level at 3,200 points.

 Asian and European equity markets followed US futures lower prior to stabilizing, as investors reduced allocations to risk assets and moved into safe havens.

 From a trading perspective, gold is very overbought after the 10% move higher in the last 30 days. However, the scale of the geopolitical uncertainty could see gold stay overbought in the short term.

 If things deteriorate significantly in the Middle East then we will likely see oil prices surge and there is a strong possibility of a massive short squeeze which propels gold (and silver) prices much higher. A close above $1,600/oz should see us move quickly higher to test the $1,700/oz level.

 Gold’s record nominal highs at $1,900/oz (see chart below) may be surpassed later this year given the very strong demand for gold bullion due to the host of financial, geopolitical and monetary risks

 Prudent gold bullion investors will as ever take a long term view and those seeking to diversify and hedge risks with an allocation to gold, should
dollar cost average into their gold holding.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold retreats from $1,600 as markets eye U.S. reaction after Iran attacks

Gold price scales $1,600 after Iran attacks US military base

Gold price surges amid geopolitical uncertainty

Dow futures plunge after Iran retaliation raises fears of bigger conflict

Oil prices surge 4% following attack on Iraq airbase

Iran’s overnight strikes on American bases ‘a slap in the face’ for US – Khamenei

Ukraine International Airline jet crashes killing 176 in Tehran

Precious Metals Update Video: Resistances and supports

 

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

07-Jan-20 1566.50 1567.85, 1190.85 1197.05 & 1402.80 1406.52
06-Jan-20 1576.85 1573.10, 1198.09 1197.29 & 1408.44 1406.51
03-Jan-20 1547.40 1548.75, 1182.37 1184.48 & 1389.57 1387.99
02-Jan-20 1520.55 1527.10, 1151.36 1161.51 & 1358.46 1366.91
31-Dec-19  1523.00,                1157.78 & 1358.06
30-Dec-19  1511.50 1514.75,  1152.37 1152.57 & 1350.22  1351.91
27-Dec-19  1510.60  1511.50, 1156.36 1152.67 & 1356.37  1353.85
24-Dec-19  1490.85                  1152.58 & 1345.94
23-Dec-19  1483.95  1482.10, 1141.90 1133.95 & 1338.97 1334.35
20-Dec-19  1476.90  1479.00, 1132.19 1132.33 & 1328.20 1327.55

Is Your Gold and Silver Bullion S.A.F.E. ?
Segregated, Actionable, Flexible and what are the total Expenses?
Watch Our Latest Video Update Here

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

end

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

There are plenty of good reasons to buy gold not just the uSA -Iran tensions

(zerohedge)

Why U.S.-Iran tensions are not a good reason to buy gold

 Section: 

By Myra P. Saefond
MarketWatch.com, New York
Monday, January 6, 2020

Gold’s haven appeal amid mounting U.S.-Iran tensions and uncertainty in the Middle East could turn sour following the precious metal’s recent price rally to near seven year highs.

“The geopolitical instability is adding fuel to the fire,” said Maria Smirnova, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management, following a sharp rise for gold in 2019. “How lasting the boost to the gold price will depend on how the Iranian situation unfolds and whether it escalates,” and that situation may get “worse before it gets better.”

… 

Still, it would not be a surprise if gold were to “consolidate its gains or correct after this pop” in prices, she said, while adding that a big downturn is not likely in the cards if that happens.

Gold’s latest rally comes on back of last week’s U.S. airstrike near Baghdad’s airport that killed General Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s top military commanders. On Sunday, Iran said it would no longer abide by the 2015 nuclear deal, which the U.S. had already pulled out of in 2018.

On Monday, February gold rose $16.40, or 1.1%, to settle at $1,568.80 an ounce on Comex, marking the highest most-active contract finish since April 9, 2013, according to FactSet data. Prices also tallied a ninth consecutive rise, the longest streak of gains since the 11-session climb ended on Jan. 5, 2018.

Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, however, said he thinks “geopolitical events aren’t a good reason to buy gold.”

“The price almost always spikes before most investors can buy it and drops well before they can sell it,” he told MarketWatch. “So outside of high-frequency traders or insiders, everyone else ends up holding the bag.”

He also said these events “aren’t a logical reason to own gold since only those people in a specific troubled region might find the events a reason to actually own the precious metal.”

The gold market was “just beginning to get wider acceptance of the fundamental monetary issues that are driving the price of gold higher,” said Lundin. “Now the market may confuse the driver as being geopolitical in nature, and the inevitable correction once things calm down may damage the outlook for gold.”

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-geopolitical-events-are-not-a-good…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

JPMorgan has increased its derivative bets from 300 billion to 2.4 trillion dollars and the OCC is saying this is fine?

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Stock exposure has exploded at JPMorgan’s federally-insured bank

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Federally-insured banks are not supposed to be making large speculations in the stock market. They are supposed to be using bank deposits to make loans to worthy businesses and consumers to help grow the U.S. economy and keep the United States competitive on the global stage.

… 

But according to the official reports from the federal regulator of national banks, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, since December 31, 2010 the federally-insured bank owned by the monster trading house of JPMorgan Chase has increased its equity (stock) derivative bets from $337 billion to $2.4 trillion as of its latest report for the quarter ending September 30, 2019. (The data is found in a graph titled “Table 10” in the appendix of each of the quarterly reports published by the OCC.)

During the period that JPMorgan Chase’s positions in stock derivatives have exploded, both its own stock price and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have been on a sharp upward trajectory. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/stock-exposure-has-exploded-at-jp…

end

then Russ and Pam delivered this important commentary re the Repo Mess:

Fed’s Balance Sheet Explodes by $413 Billion in 119 Days

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 8, 2020 ~

On September 4, 2019, the assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve stood at $3.761 trillion. As of January 1, that figure is $4,173,626,000,000. That’s an increase of $413 billion in just the past 119 days and the Fed does not seem inclined to turn off its money spigot to Wall Street anytime soon. At the rate the Fed is now going, its balance sheet is likely to eclipse the $4.5 trillion all-time high it reached in 2015 as a result of the unprecedented sums it funneled to Wall Street following the epic financial crash in 2008 and its three rounds of quantitative easing (QE) to keep interest rates low to appease Wall Street’s trading houses and their trillions of dollars in interest-rate derivative bets.

When Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testified to the Senate Banking Committee on June 13, 2012 about billions of dollars in derivative losses at his federally-insured bank, he had this to say about the major dangers facing his bank – the largest bank in the U.S. “There are two major risks that J.P. Morgan faced: dramatically rising interest rates and a global type of credit crisis. Those are the two biggest risks we face,” Dimon stated.

The Fed, through its open money spigot and trading arm – the New York Fed – has been a Fairy Godmother to Jamie Dimon. It has kept short-term interest rates at historic lows since 2008 and postponed the inevitable global financial crisis long enough to allow Jamie Dimon and his pals on Wall Street to become billionaires. The flipside of Jamie Dimon’s wish list has been to impoverish millions of retirees who have seen their interest income on Treasury notes and Certificates of Deposits cut in half for more than a decade and to fuel an unprecedented corporate debt bubble in the U.S. as a result of that cheap money.

Now, instead of the Fed winding down its latest money spigot that it opened on behalf of Wall Street’s trading houses on September 17, it appears to be gaining momentum. Yesterday, the $35 billion that the New York Fed provided to Wall Street in 14-day term loans was oversubscribed by $6.12 billion. On top of that, the New York Fed also pumped out $63.919 billion in overnight loans for a total of $98.919 billion – in just one day.

The New York Fed’s latest money spigot has been in operation every business day since September 17 when overnight rates on repo loans spiked from an average of 2 percent to 10 percent. The New York Fed stepped in as lender-of-last-resort to bring the rate back down, despite the fact that this is clearly where the free market wanted to price these loans. Yesterday’s New York Fed loans were pumped out at the preposterously low rate of 1.55 percent interest.

Repo loans are typically made between Wall Street banks, hedge funds and money market funds. The New York Fed is making its repo loans available exclusively to its 24 primary dealers, which are, in fact, the primary trading houses on Wall Street. Many of these firms could not borrow in the open market at rates anywhere near 1.55 percent. So the New York Fed is essentially providing another bailout to Wall Street and calling it part of its “open market operations.”

The New York Fed is just one of the 12 regional banks of the Federal Reserve system. But because it supervises the bank holding companies of two of the largest federally-insured banks in the country (JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup) and four of the largest Wall Street trading houses in the country (JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs) it has, over time, morphed into both a captured regulator and a captured bank vault. (See These Are the Banks that Own the New York Fed and Its Money Button.)

What is remarkable about these super cheap loans to Wall Street at this time is that the Fed is simultaneously insisting that the Wall Street banks are in fine shape. On December 4, the head of bank supervision for the Federal Reserve, Randal Quarles, testified as follows to the House Financial Services Committee:

“The Board’s latest Supervision and Regulation Report, which we published last week, confirms the current health of the banking system. It depicts a stable, healthy, and resilient banking sector, with robust capital and liquidity positions… It describes steady improvements in safety and soundness, with a gradual decline in outstanding supervisory actions at both the largest and smallest organizations.”

The stock market does not appear to be in a crisis since it set multiple historic highs in December – likely on the back of all that cheap money flowing out of the New York Fed to Wall Street’s trading houses.

Wall Street On Parade used one of the few avenues still available to American citizens to peel back the dark curtain that surrounds Wall Street and its crony regulators. On October 2, 2019 we filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request with the New York Fed. We requested “emails or any other forms of written correspondence from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to JPMorgan Chase or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates containing any of the following words or phrases: ‘repo,’ ‘repurchase agreements,’ ‘overnight lending,’ or ‘reserves.’ ”

We explained our request as follows:

“It has been revealed in a published report by Reuters that other Wall Street banks are pointing to JPMorgan Chase as a cause of the distress in the overnight repo market because it drew down $158 billion from its cash deposits at the Fed. We are not asking for any protected supervisory records. We are simply asking to see any correspondence that would explain why JPMorgan Chase did this and what the Fed’s reaction was.”

Our FOIA request was acknowledged by the New York Fed as received on October 2. We should have had a meaningful response on November 1. Instead, we received an email advising that we would not hear further from the New York Fed until December 5, 2019.

Instead of the mandated 10-day extension that is allowed under law, we were given more than a month-long extension. On December 5, the New York Fed emailed us to say it was extending the time to respond to January 9.

Under FOIA law, the 20 business-day requirement can only be waived under “unusual circumstances” which must be set forth in the letter to the requester. The letter from the New York Fed does not spell out these “unusual circumstances.”

Tomorrow is January 9. We’re not holding our breath.

end

A good commentary from Chris Powell has he scolds Bloomberg’s Authers for misleading his readers on the April 13 2013 drive by shooting

(Chris Powell)GATA)

Shunning actual journalism, Bloomberg’s Authers misleads his readers again

 Section: 

9:05p ET Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In September 2018 Financial Times columnist John Authers admitted that he had withheld important information from his newspaper’s readers so he could exploit it financially for himself:

http://www.gata.org/node/18478

Now writing for Bloomberg News, Authers today sneers at what he calls “various conspiracy theories” that emerged to explain the smash in the gold price over a weekend in April 2013. See the appended excerpt from his commentary headlined “Gold’s Next Big Bull Market May Be Upon Us.”

… 

Of course honest journalists need no “conspiracy theories” to put critical questions to the authorities. But “conspiracy theories” can prompt honest journalists to pose such questions.

So when in April 2013 some close observers of the gold market could find no explanation for the gold market smash more plausible than surreptitious government intervention, did Authers, for example, ask the Bank for International Settlements to explain the parties and objectives behind its surreptitious gold trading?

Did he press the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to explain whether its jurisdiction extends to manipulative trading conducted by the U.S. government or its brokers?

Did he ask the Federal Reserve Board of Governors why it refused to disclose so many gold-related documents to GATA upon the organization’s request under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act?

Did he ask the Fed to explain the purposes and extent of the secret gold swap arrangements with foreign banks that had been admitted by a Fed governor in the course of GATA’s litigation?

Of course not, for asking such questions would have been to commit actual journalism rather than mere pontification.

Those questions remain available to Authers any time he wants to do more than mislead his readers.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Gold’s Next Big Bull Market May Be Upon Us

John Authers
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, January 7, 2020

We have climbed back to the top of the golden cliff. Now what happens next?

Two related landmarks were easy to miss amid Monday’s continuing excitement about the tension between Iran and the United States, but they matter. The first was a comeback: In April 2013, gold staged a sudden and dramatic crash, dropping 13.5% in two trading days. That confirmed a bear market from which the precious metal has only just, it appears, emerged. On Monday gold’s spot price in dollars at last exceeded its price from April 11, 2013.

Before its sharp decline, gold had rallied on the belief that the low interest rates put in place to combat the financial crisis would usher in inflation. And so when it slumped in 2013, various conspiracy theories moved through the ether to try to account for its worst collapse in three decades. Within a month, though, the drop was beginning to look prophetic. Soon after, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ushered in what came to be known as the “Taper Tantrum” by suggesting that he was ready to start removing support for the bond market — which also began to acknowledge that the crisis had squeezed risks of inflation out of the economy. By that autumn — almost five years after the crisis — there was a growing recognition that inflation wasn’t going to arrive. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-07/gold-s-next-big-bu…

END

Craig Hemke writes for Sprott and forecasts what to expect in the new year: more debt monetization and rising metal prices

(Craig Hemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: New year will bring rate cuts, debt monetization, rising metals

 Section: 

10:37p ET Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his monetary metals forecast for 2020, posted today at Sprott Money, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke predicts more interest rate cuts and debt monetization from central banks as well as a decline in the U.S. dollar. Amid all this, Hemke adds, the monetary metals will fly as investors suddenly crowd into a very small sector.

The one big obstacle to this, Hemke writes, is the huge and ever-increasing short positions in metals futures that are attributed to the major investment banks, which, it may be assumed, will continue to fight the rise in the monetary metals.

… 

But what if that short position does not really belong to the investment banks? What if they are only managing it for the U.S. government and other governments? A few years ago both the chief executive officer of one of those investment banks, JPMorganChase’s Jamie Dimon, and the chief of the bank’s commodity desk, Blythe Masters, said publicly that the bank had no position of its own in the monetary metals and that the positions it traded were for clients.

Of course no journalists asked the bank if the metals positions it was carrying were government positions. That the open interest in gold and silver futures continues to rise spectacularly even as metals prices keep rising spectacularly suggests that whoever is selling has deep pockets and no fear. Someone like that would seem to have access to computers and keyboards capable of creating as much electronic money as, say, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York lately has been creating with only dubious explanations.

If the government is the big short in the metals futures markets — as it was the big short during the London Gold Pool — the pressure on those markets can be maintained until the metal claimed for delivery runs out, or until the government or governments running the short position exhaust the metal they are prepared to lose.

Of course that’s just what collapsed the gold pool, leading to a substantial revaluation of the monetary metal as people realized that gold was a lot scarcer than its nominal price suggested. Maybe that realization is behind the recent increasing acquisitions of real metal by central banks and others who pay attention.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Gold and Silver 2020 Macrocast” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-and-silver-2020-macrocast-craig-he…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Turkey’s Currency Is Showing No Concerns

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,

Gold is trading higher again with the last quote at $1,578.80, up $4.50 after racing to $1,613.30 when the markets reopened last night with the low at $1,575.50. Silver followed a bit, but was the-first-to-not-move, with its last trade at $18.415, up 2.2 cents after reaching $18.895 with the low right here at $18.375. The US Dollar, where most large algos run to when the war drums sound, is barely moving as well yet is trading at 96.89, up 18.02 points and at the high with the low at 96.525. Of course, all this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close, and after Nancy saved us all from a quick Senate acquittal (so says Schumer).

In Venezuela, Gold is now trading at 15,768.27 Bolivar, giving back the exact amount (114.86) taken during yesterday’s missive with Silver 183.920 Bolivar, gaining 2.996 in value, almost catching up to yesterday’s take. Argentina’s currency now has Gold priced at 94,350.19 A-Peso’s gaining 749.86, slightly more than what was taken previously with Silver at 1,100.55 A-Peso’s, capturing back almost all of that which was removed. Turkey’s Lira, which should be showing much larger upward swings because of its proximity to the staged events of the day, now has Gold priced at 9,398.70 T-Lira, showing a gain of 34.95, which is only half of what was taken with Silver at 109.617 Lira, regaining 1.404 T-Lira, as we wait for its value to recover all that was taken since Monday. So, why is Turkey’s currency not showing concern, like the others, after the Iran’s missile launches and that downed airplane in their airspace?

January Silver Delivery Requests proved a gain during yesterday’s trade regardless of the change they made, during the Comex trading period, adjusting the demand count from 6 to 5. Then our Resolute Buyer came in with a Volume of 33 inside a trading range between $18.29 and $18.015 (opening) with the last trade priced at $18.316 ending with the adjusted close at $18.345.

Today’s January Silver Delivery Count sits at 16 fully paid for contracts proving either 17 of these purchases (made yesterday) were given receipts here at the Comex, or sent to London, so they can be sent back here again(?), or 27 contracts were settled and this is what is left to deliver. So far this morning we have a Volume of 5 up on the board with a trading range between $18.505 and $18.245 with the last single lot order at the low price (of course). That 1 lot order is far more valuable than the previous 4 (to those that set the price, not the buyer).

Silver’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 234,396 Overnighters proving a gain of 115 Obligations inside yesterday’s 21.4 cent move. Commercial Signal Failure signs are here, but so is the idea of a pullback. Apparently, the shorts still refuse to leave their most uncomfortable positions as the market continues to climb. Now that’s confidence oozing out of every pore, since they have a federal reserve back up system in play installing liquidity and during a non-liquidity crisis in Repos. Nope, nothing to worry about here (yet).

We need common sense to prevail in all things. Prayers are now needed for our soldiers, who are once again in harm’s way, and for peace to prevail. Have your precious metals in hand, keep a positive attitude no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9427/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9417   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 37.91 POINTS OR 1.22%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 234.12 POINTS OR 0.83%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 370.96 POINTS OR 1.57%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.11/Euro FALLS TO 1.125

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.67/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 62.58 and Brent: 68.45

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.24%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.64: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.39

3k Gold at $1578.05 silver at: 18.41   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.81

3m oil into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.67 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9716 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0809 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.24%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.80% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.29%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9460..

Stock Futures Stage Tremendous Rebound From Overnight Crash On Optimism Worst Of Iran Crisis Over

S&P500 index futures erased their earlier crash, after tumbling more than 50 points following news Iran launched ballistic missiles at US airbases in Iraq, as investors turned optimistic and looked past the missile strikes focusing instead on Iran’s comments that the country isn’t “seeking escalation or war” and Trump’s tweet that “all is well.” As a result, S&P 500 e-mini futures up around 0.1%, after earlier sliding as much as 1.7%, with global markets broadly in the green too.

Following the targeted strikes, both Iran and U.S. President Donald Trump left the door open for lowering tensions: Iran’s Foreign minister Javad Zarif said the country had “concluded proportionate measures” and didn’t seek war, while Trump tweeted “All is well!” and plans to make a statement later Wednesday.

Oil had surged above $70 a barrel, while gold held at new seven-year highs after the missile attack on the Ain Al-Asad air base and another in Erbil in Iraq, hours after the funeral of an Iranian commander who was killed by a U.S. drone strike last week. But with no human casualties from the attack, the dash for safe-haven assets petered out, allowing S&P500 futures, down almost 2% at one point, to trade around flat.

 

The Japanese yen, which surged almost 1% to three-month highs after the attacks, also eased back to trade flat on the day at 108.450. Brent crude futures slipped off highs to below $69 a barrel.

“The live situation was optically quite dramatic but the important thing to focus on is the no-human-casualty dimension, which gives ample space to de-escalate the situation,” said Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “The Trump factor is the random factor but what’s visible is that no one wants war and that’s what markets are focusing on.”

Separately, Boeing shares slipped in pre-market trading after one of its 737s crashed after take-off in Iran, with early assessments suggesting the incident was caused by a technical issue.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased most of an earlier decline after opening 0.5% lower, while all major Asian equity markets fell earlier as they closed before the wave of “optimism” spread across markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined for a third time in four days, with regional markets a sea of red. Japanese shares were some of the biggest losers, with Toyota Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. leading the drop in the Topix index. The Shanghai Composite Index fell the most in two weeks, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Life Insurance Company Ltd. down. World leaders have urged restraint and moved to recall their citizens after Iran fired the missiles in its first counterattack since the killing of General Qassem Soleimani by American forces. U.S. President Trump said in a tweet that “all is well,” and he will be making a statement. Get Used to the Swings

A gauge of high-yield credit risk in Europe rose to the highest in about a month. Gold punched above $1,600 an ounce for the first time since 2013 before the move eased.

MSCI’s index of global equities pulled back 0.2% but remained less than 1% off recent record highs.

That said, some are stunned at the market’s reaction, pointing out that there is no reasonable argument why stocks should be higher than their Tuesday close.

Quoth the Raven@QTRResearch

The idea of futures being green is the market literally saying “things are better off since yesterday’s close”

Since yesterday’s close Iran has fired a dozen missiles at a US base without a response from Trump & an airliner that’s a major Dow component suffered another crash

Wednesday’s swings mark the latest bout of volatility sparked by U.S.-Iran tensions, as investors tried to assess how far the situation will escalate. As Bloomberg notes, the nervousness is denting optimism spurred by the improving outlook for global commerce, with a Sino-American trade deal expected to be signed next week.

The missile attacks “triggered a short period of market volatility overnight but FX and bond moves have largely been reversed,” Kit Juckes, the chief currency strategist at Societe Generale SA in London, wrote in a note. “The consensus view is still that major escalation is unlikely.”

Some argue it will take a hawkish statement from Trump or more attacks by Iran to drive the next phase of the risk selloff.

“We are looking out for whether the U.S. is going to retaliate, so it’s going to be a big wait-and-see mode until we hear from Trump,” Ashley Glover at CMC Markets in Sydney. “We are seeing that ‘buy the dip’ mentality creeping in as big long-term investors like to buy into these weaknesses.”

Bond-buying also faded, with yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes at 1.81%, down one basis point on the day but well off session lows around 1.705%. The 10-year German government bond yield was unchanged on the day at -0.284% after earlier falling to -0.299%. U.S. 10-year Treasury futures had earlier peaked at their highest level since November, and were last up 0.18%.

On currency markets, the attacks had sent the yen spiralling to three-month highs beyond 107.7 per dollar but gave up all those gains to trade flat at 108.4. Another safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc, also gave up knee-jerk gains. “If the market was really worried that the end of the world was nigh, dollar/yen would have collapsed, and that’s clearly not been the case,” said Stuart Oakley, global head of flow FX at Nomura in Singapore. The euro was 0.2 weaker, buying $1.1129 and the dollar index was up 0.1% at 97.10.

The buying of gold and oil also eased as the trading session wore on – Brent crude futures which had shot to $70 per dollar, were last up 0.5% at $68.1 per barrel. Gold, which earlier brushed through $1,600 an ounce, eased to $1,582.

Lombard Odier’s Ahmed said he had not reduced equity holdings overall but had increased exposure to energy stocks. “We adopted a long oil hedge to portfolio and we are maintaining that… Oil may be one market that’s not reflecting geopolitical risks.”

Economic data include mortgage applications, ADP jobs report. Walgreens, Constellation Brands are due to report.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed
  • MXAP down 0.8% to 169.90
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 551.59
  • Nikkei down 1.6% to 23,204.76
  • Topix down 1.4% to 1,701.40
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 28,087.92
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 3,066.89
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 40,811.86
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 6,817.63
  • Kospi down 1.1% to 2,151.31
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 416.67
  • German 10Y yield rose 4.5 bps to -0.24%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1137
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $68.62/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.207%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.404%
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,581.82
  • U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 97.01

Top Headline News from Bloomberg

  • President Donald Trump tweets “All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning”
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for the barrage, which the Pentagon said was launched from Iran. A total of 15 rockets were launched, 10 of which hit the Ayn al-Asad base in western Iraq and another facility in Erbil, according to two U.S. officials. Another struck the Taji air base near Baghdad while four fell out of the sky. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Twitter that the government took “proportionate measures in self-defense” after the Soleimani strike
  • Iranian Foreign Minister doesn’t have any statistics on fatalities in the Iranian attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq, he told reporters in comments broadcast on TV. Zarif said he’s sent a message to the Americans “immediately after the attack” but did not elaborate on its contents; both Iran and Trump left the door open for lowering tensions after the Islamic Republic’s retaliation for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani last week
  • U.S. aviation regulators issued new restrictions barring civilian flights over Iraq, Iran, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, the agency said Tuesday night in an emailed statement. A Boeing Co. 737 jet carrying at least 170 people crashed in Iran due to technical problems shortly after taking off, according to a local media reports  ???
  • Global crude markets are well supplied, and OPEC and allied producers will respond if necessary to spiking tensions in the region, U.A.E. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told reporters in Abu Dhabi
  • Currency traders in Asia were left nursing losses after algorithmic programs exacerbated a whipsaw session caused by Iran’s response to the U.S. attack
  • Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves signaled that the Swedish central bank’s decision to raise its main rate to zero last month won’t be followed by more tightening for a very long time. German manufacturing orders unexpectedly fell in November, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is still struggling to overcome its worst industrial downturn in a decade
  • Boris Johnson will tell European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday that his government is only interested in negotiating a free trade agreement with its largest market, and that he’s determined to achieve it by the end of the year
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she wants to see the resolution that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell plans to put forward setting out the rules for Trump’s impeachment trial. McConnell says Republicans have votes to set Trump trial terms

Asian equity markets traded lower across the board, albeit well off lows – as sentiment took a hit after Iranian forces carried out multiple attacks on Iraqi bases housing US personnel and allies, as part of the IRGC’s operation to avenge its commander’s assassination. Nikkei 225 (-1.6%) initially plumbed the depths and underperformed amid headwinds from a geopolitically bid JPY and with the index briefly dipping below the 23k level as almost all its stocks traded in the red. ASX 200 (-0.1%) fared better as downside was cushioned by the large-cap miners and energy names benefitting from price action in the respective complexes. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.9%) and Shanghai Comp (-1.2%) conformed to the risk aversion, with losses in the mainland initially mitigated to an extent by the anticipated US-Sino Phase One trade deal signing next week. Finally, KOSPI (-1.1%) failed to glean support Samsung Electronics’ (+2.3%) prelim earnings – which flagged a smaller-than-forecast fall in quarterly operating profits, with some analysts noting it indicates that memory chip prices have bottomed out quicker than anticipated. APAC bourses climbed off lows after reports that US President Trump will not be addressing the nation – seen as a positive at the time as it indicates the US may not immediately retaliate. Furthermore, sentiment showed a slightly more pronounced turnaround after President Trump acknowledged the missile attack and noted that “all is well”.

Top Asian News

  • China’s 58 Home Is Said to Seek U.S. IPO of Online Services Arm
  • Why in India, 5% GDP Growth Is Cause for Alarm: QuickTake
  • EF Education First Is Said to Shortlist Bidders for Chinese Unit
  • Ghosn Nearly Crossed Paths With Japan Prime Minister as He Fled

European bourses are softer this morning, as sentiment has switched from yesterday’s cautious optimism back into a firm risk-off frame of mind. Losses across indices are not too pronounced, recovering from overnight price action in futures, as we await the response from US President Trump; further analysis available in the Commodity section and the Newsquawk headline feed. In terms of sectors, this has also switched from yesterday with energy names now the only sector in positive territory; although, similarly to bourses, losses across the remaining sectors are relatively modest. As such, energy names are leading the Stoxx 600 while Co’s which are typically afflicted by higher prices are holding up relatively well roughly unchanged on the day e.g. easyJet (EZJ LN). Elsewhere, its comparatively quiet on the European stock stories front. Although, the situation is significantly different in the US where focus is on Boeing (BA), -1.9% in pre-market trade, after a 737-800 craft crashed in Iran shortly after take-off. This is reportedly due to technical issues and is not, at present, believed to be linked to the ongoing Middle-East tensions; interestingly, reports note that the Iranian Civil Aviation Chief will not be returning the black box from the craft to Boeing.

Top European News

  • Knot Says Brexit Deal Should Sort Out Financial Services Role
  • Jefferies Keeps Aston Martin Covenants Call After Clarification
  • Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund Sells $947 Million Stake in UniCredit
  • Danske Bank Fixed Income Sales Veteran Claezon Leaves

In FX, the Dollar’s broad recovery from post-Iran retaliatory strike lows is fairly representative of the overall retracement in currency and other financial markets amidst a relatively rapid turnaround in sentiment from aversion bordering on a scramble out of risk assets into safe-havens, albeit less pronounced. The DXY has reclaimed 97.000+ status and eclipsed yesterday’s high even though US Treasuries retain an underlying bid and the curve is marginally flatter awaiting the official US response after a full inspection of the bases hit in Iraq, and ahead of the next pre-NFP proxy for Friday in the form of ADP, assuming attention returns to fundamentals at some point.

  • EUR – The G10 laggard after yet another shallower rebound vs the Greenback and what looks like a fix-related run against the Pound that tripped stops in the cross through 0.8465, but stopped short of testing 0.8450 or last week’s low. The single currency now appears vulnerable to Eur/Usd sell orders said to be residing near/on Tuesday’s circa 1.1125 low that could then expose decent option expiry interest at 1.1120 and even between 1.1100-05 (in 1 bn and 1.2 bn respectively).
  • CHF/JPY/XAU – Very volatile trade given the aforementioned risk-off flows followed by a sharp/abrupt unwind of safe-haven premiums, as the Franc reverses from around 0.9665 back below 0.9700, Yen rotates more than a full big figure either side of 108.00 where there is a 1 bn expiry and Gold slides to circa Usd1573/oz compared to over Usd1610 at one stage.
  • NZD/GBP/AUD/CAD – All narrowly mixed vs the Buck, or holding up better amidst its revival, as the Kiwi keeps tabs on 0.6650, Aussie holds off fresh 0.6850 lows, with the aid of some welcome better news on the data front via building approvals, Sterling maintains 1.3100+ status and Loonie pares some of its losses around the 1.3000 handle. However, price action remains choppy/fluid across the board, and the Pound may be prone to more Brexit headlines in wake of UK PM Johnson’s date with new EC President von der Leyen to discuss the post-January 31 transition period and Britain’s relationship with the EU thereafter.
  • NOK/SEK – Some Norges Bank and Riksbank diversions for the Scandi Crowns to ponder, but not a lot new in comments from Governor Olsen or the December policy meeting minutes in truth. Hence, Eur/Nok and Eur/Sek are both largely tracking wider developments and the much improved risk tone, with the former lagging as crude prices come off the boil.
  • EM – Most regional currencies are benefiting from the considerably calmer mood, bar those with close commodity links that are underperforming/hampered by the retreat in oil, bullion etc.

In commodities, another tumultuous day for markets, particularly the commodity complexes, due to the magnitude of news-flow and in the interest of time, a full briefing on recent events, including what’s next, responses so far and market reaction, is available on the Newsquawk feed. To briefly surmise the main points, overnight Iran launched missiles at two Iraqi bases (Al-Asad and Erbil), currently reports indicate that no US troops were killed but we await official confirmation of this. Markets took a firm risk-off tone, with WTI and Brent experiencing significant upside; high prints of, USD 65.65/ bbl and USD 71.75/bbl respectively. Subsequently, much of this move has pared back, with WTI now below the USD 63/bbl handle, given that comments have pointed towards a de-escalation in tensions between the US and Iran; notably, from POTUS himself. Looking ahead, focus is almost entirely on the announced press conference from US President Trump at some point today; the timing of this is currently unclear. Middle-East updates aside, we do have the weekly update from the EIA where headline crude is expected to print a draw of 3.572mln barrels which, if correct, would be a smaller draw than the 5.9mln barrels reported via API. Although, it is worth caveating that the release may draw less attention than normal given the Middle-East developments. Moving to metals, where spot gold overnight printed a fresh six-year high surpassing Monday’s just above the USD 1610/oz mark. However, similarly to crude, the yellow metals prices have drifted to reside within proximity to the USD 1580/oz figure.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 160,000, prior 67,000
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $16.0b, prior $18.9b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Copenhagen for my first trip in a busy month that will take me to 11 European cities before January ends and not one of them coincides with a Liverpool game! Shame but anything to get away from the germs at home.

While I’ve slept Iran has retaliated to the killing of General Qassem Soleimani by American forces last week by firing a series of missiles at two US-Iraqi airbases. A total of 15 missiles were launched, 10 of which hit the Ayn al-Asad base in western Iraq and another facility in Erbil, while another struck the Taji air base near Baghdad and four fell out of the sky, according to US officials. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said after the attack on twitter that the government “concluded proportionate measures in self-defense” after the Soleimani strike. He further said that, “We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression”. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that further responses will be on the way while, calling the attack as the start of its “Martyr Soleimani” operation. The IRGC also said in a statement on its Sepah News website that any US response “will be met with much more pain and destruction.” There were also some unconfirmed reports that there were no US casualties in the attacks (Iranian TV says the opposite) which might be an important part of whether they feel the need to respond. Meanwhile the Pentagon said in a statement post attacks that “As we evaluate the situation and our response, we will take all necessary measures to protect and defend U.S. personnel, partners, and allies in the region.” President Trump refrained from making a statement right away after the attack and subsequently tweeted that “All is well!” and “So far, so good!” while adding that battle damage assessments continued. He said that he will make a statement this morning Washington time. It’s also of note that in the past President Trump has shown restraint in previous attacks in the region blamed on Iran which didn’t kill any US citizens. This gives a glimmer of hope that this might not lead to an all-out escalation in the conflict. There are already some commentators saying that if the US doesn’t ratchet up tensions further this could be good news for risk as it might be spun by Iran as a big response and the world can move on for now. In what seems like a tragic coincident a Boeing 737 has crashed in Iran after take off killing all on board. Usually the aircraft manufacturer will be involved in the investigations but given the tensions between the countries this story may have an unusual outcome.

The price action in the financial markets post the attack also gave a feeler that markets might not be expecting an all-out confrontation, with the futures on the S&P 500 paring losses to -0.35% after being down as much as -1.7% immediately after the attack. Similarly, Gold initially advanced +2.35% to 1611.42/ ounce, the highest since 2013 and is currently trading up +1.12% to 1591.96/ ounce while brent crude oil prices jumped to 71.75 before settling at 69.18 this morning.

Elsewhere in Asia, equity markets are seeing losses but are off their lows with the Nikkei (-1.68%), Hang Seng (-1.11%), Shanghai comp (-1.22%) and Kospi (-1.15%) all down alongside almost every index in the region. Elsewhere, yields on 10y USTs are down -4.4bps this morning while those on 10y JGBs are down -1.1bps. As for overnight data releases Japan’s November real cash earnings came in at -0.9% yoy (-0.7% yoy expected) and December consumer confidence stood at 39.1 (vs. 39.5 expected).

Back to yesterday and markets were in a bit of a stalemate before the overnight attacks with investors still cautious on geo-politics but remembering that it was only three business days ago that everyone was discussing a January melt-up for markets after the first day of NY trading. Maybe the most notable development was the first decline of this calendar year for oil, with Brent ending the session down around -1% at $68.4. As we discussed above we’ve had a bit of a round trip overnight but as we discussed yesterday our oil analysts doesn’t think that oil infrastructure is as obvious target as people might think for Iranian retaliation if it comes. So he therefore doesn’t think the elevated oil risk premium will be long-standing. Here is a reminder to his piece and reasoning (link here).

US equities did fall though making the 2020 S&P 500 count even at two sessions up and two down. It fell -0.28% mirroring moves in the Dow Jones (-0.42%) and the NASDAQ (-0.03%). Market were probably a bit nervous about Iran’s comments that it was considering 13 scenarios for retaliation. They may have also been slightly concerned at the chaos around the Soleimani funeral procession that saw 50 dead (plus over 200 injured) in a stampede and pictures of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Iranians take to the street these past few days. This US action has certainly stoked feelings/emotions in the Middle East.

European equities were stronger than the US though, with the STOXX 600 up +0.25%, while the DAX outperformed to advance +0.76% but is still one of the few Western equity markets down in the early stages of the year.

In sovereign debt markets, Treasuries edged higher into the close (+1.2bps) after a relatively quiet day. Meanwhile in Europe, gilts underperformed again, with 10yr yields up +2.4bps, while both Germany (+0.3bps) and France (-0.2bps) were fairly flat. In FX, the dollar performed strongly with the dollar index being up +0.35% yesterday.

In terms of economic data releases yesterday, things were more positive in the US, with the ISM non-manufacturing index for December rising to a better-than-expected 55.0 (vs. 54.4 expected), its strongest level since August. This contrasts with the ISM manufacturing index out on Friday, which fell to 47.2, its lowest level since June 2009. The gap between the two (7.8) is the highest since late 2015 and close to the highest levels of the last couple of decades.

We also got data on the US trade deficit, which fell to $43.1bn in November (vs. $43.6bn expected), its lowest level since October 2016 before President Trump’s election. Data also showed the goods deficit with China fell to $25.6bn, which was the lowest since April 2013. Reducing the US trade deficit has been a key policy goal for President Trump, and it comes ahead of next week’s expected signing of the Phase One US-China trade deal, which is taking place on the 15th.

There were a number of data releases out in Europe as well. The main one was the Euro Area inflation reading for December, with the flash estimate in line with expectations at +1.3%, and its highest level since April. That said, there doesn’t seem to be a great amount of confidence that inflation over the medium term is going to rise much higher than this, with Euro five-year forward five-year inflation swaps trading at 1.311%. Over in Italy meanwhile, data showed inflation was lower still, at just +0.5%, though this was up from +0.2% in the prior 3 months. In more positive news, Euro Area retail sales rose by +1.0% in November (vs. +0.7% expected), while the German construction PMI came in at 53.8 in December, a 9-month high.

Turning to Spain now, and Prime Minister Sánchez’s coalition government received the narrow backing of the Spanish parliament yesterday, with a vote of 167-165 in favour, thanks to 18 abstentions. The country has experienced sustained political gridlock over the last year, having gone to the polls twice in 2019 after no government could be formed following the first election in April. The subsequent election in November then saw the formation of a new coalition between Sanchez’s Socialist party and the left-wing Podemos, but they still only have a minority of seats in Parliament, having relied on the abstention of Catalan separatists in order to win yesterday’s vote.

Now to the day ahead, and the data highlights include German factory orders for November, the Euro Area’s final consumer confidence reading for December, as well as French consumer confidence also for December. From the US, we’ll get the MBA’s weekly mortgage applications and the ADP’s employment change for December. On central bank speakers, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos along with the Fed’s Brainard. Finally, European Commission President von der Leyen and chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier will be visiting Prime Minister Johnson in London.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.91 POINTS OR 1.22%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 234.14 POINTS OR 0.83%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 370.16 POINTS OR 1.57%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .19%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9427 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9427 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9417 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany

German car production crashes tro a new 23 year low

(zerohedge)

German Car Production Crashes To 23 Year Low

It’s official: the worldwide automotive industry recession is in full swing.

Car production in Germany has tumbled to its lowest levels in 23 years, according to BloombergNames like Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler produced 4.66 million cars in German factories last year, which is the weakest number since 1996.

The 9% decrease was blamed on waning demand from international markets and estimates are for deliveries to drop to 78.9 million vehicles this year, from 80.1 million in 2019. 

Pollution concerns led by Volkswagen’s 2015 diesel-cheating scandal have threatened to dethrone Germany as a global manufacturing powerhouse. Combined with the global auto recession, trade conflicts and slowing economies, it’s a recipe for falling output.

Germany has been more susceptible to emission regulations due to the country’s propensity for making high performance vehicles. Brands like BMW, Porsche and Audi have made their names focusing on power and performance.

Meanwhile the industry is focused on investing in cleaner vehicles and self-driving features. The market has been rewarding these companies, with ride-sharing company Uber posting a market value nearly equivalent to Daimler.

This has been leading the industry to “explore unusual projects”, according to Bloomberg:

 

At the CES electronics show in Las Vegas, Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz unveiled a concept car inspired by the film Avatar. The electric-powered vehicle features lateral crab-like movement and biometric controls to allow “human and machine to merge.”

The country’s domestic autos market grew 5% last year after buyers registered 3.6 million new cars, the most since 2009. But the industry expects the market to contract this year and there is anticipation of job cuts amid the transition to electric vehicles. Germany maintained its lead over Norway as Europe’s biggest EV market, after selling 63,281 EVs last year. 

END

EUROPE

Gatestone comments that Europe is under siege from migrants trying to enter various European countries.  They are being assisted by people smuggling gangs

(Gatestone)

Europe Under Siege From People-Smuggling Gangs

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

Hungarian police recently discovered two tunnels used to smuggle migrants into Hungary from Serbia. The tunnels were found at the same time that Hungarian police reported a five-fold increase in the number of migrants attempting to enter Hungary.

Hungary is not alone: Border authorities in countries across the European Union are struggling to stanch renewed flows of illegal migration.

 

More than 126,500 migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East illegally entered the EU during 2019according to the International Organization for Migration.

On November 29, Hungarian police detained 44 migrants who were found walking along a highway near Ásotthalom, a village in southern Hungary. Police later learned that the migrants had crossed into Hungary from Serbia by crawling through a 34-meter (112-foot) hand-dug tunnel.

The oval tunnel, only 50 cm (20 inches) wide and 60 cm (24 inches) high, had been dug as deep as six meters (20 feet) underground. It had gone undetected because of thick foliage in the area and because the soil that was dug out of the tunnel was dumped into a nearby canal.

A second tunnel was found in the village of Csikéria, around 40 km from Ásotthalom. That tunnel was 21.7 meters (70 feet) long. No migrants were found there. Police said they were deploying drones to search for other possible tunnels.

At the height of the migration crisis in 2015, Hungary built two razor-wire fences on its southern borders to stop or divert the flow of migrants making their way to Western Europe. The newly-discovered tunnels were built underneath those fences.

The number of migrants trying to enter Hungary illegally from Serbia increased significantly in late 2019. Of the 11,808 people who attempted to enter Hungary illegally during the first eleven months of 2019, 2,418 of those attempts were made during just the month of November, according to Gergely Gulyás, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s chief-of staff. By comparison, 5,400 attempted to enter Hungary illegally during the first eleven months of 2018.

On December 1, Szilárd Németh, a senior official at the Defense Ministry, warned that current conditions in Hungary were ripe for a repeat of the migration crisis in 2015 and that the country is now in a “state of crisis.” Németh said that more than 100,000 migrants are now gathered in the Western Balkans and although “the situation is still under control,” it is “beginning to look like the big crisis in 2015.” He added that if the migrants are “let loose” on the Hungarian border, “there could be big trouble, and we must prepare for that possibility.”

On January 5, 2020, Németh announced that the Hungarian government would double the number of soldiers patrolling the borders “in light of increasing migration pressure.”

Illegal immigration throughout Europe continues unabated. In France, for instance, nearly 20,000 migrants were arrested in 2019, according to the police website France Bleu, which also reported that 189 people smugglers were arrested.

In Britain, The Telegraph newspaper reported that Albanian people smugglers were posting advertisements on social media platforms, including Facebook, promoting their ability to get people into Europe. The ads are accompanied by TripAdvisor-style feedback comments from “satisfied” customers.

The Telegraph, citing police sources, also reported that people smuggling gangs generate profits of up to £6 billion (€7 billion; $8 billion) a year, with migrants often paying more than £10,000 (€12,000; $13,000) to secure illegal entry into the UK.

In Italy, the newspaper Il Giornalereported that people smugglers were charging up to €10,000 to bring Asian migrants to Europe on luxury yachts. The phenomenon was described as “‘first-class immigration’: with no inflatable boats, no dinghies, no people crammed and crowded en route to Lampedusa,” but on real yachts “in conditions considered decent.”

Elsewhere in Europe:

Belgium

November 20. A dozen African migrants with spears and machetes attacked a Romanian truck driver at a rest stop on the E40 motorway in Walshoutem. The driver was sleeping in his truck when he was awakened by noise coming from the back of his truck. When he went to investigate, the migrants attacked him. The migrants had been trying to stow away in the truck in an effort to reach the United Kingdom.

October 29. In Antwerp, 28 migrants were arrested at the Berchem railway station after they failed to produce valid residence papers. Federal Police said that the action was directed against illegal immigration and people smuggling and the nuisance in and around the station that goes with it. Police said they were focused on trains moving between Antwerp and Brussels. The arrested persons were from Sudan (17), Eritrea (10) and Ethiopia (1). Eleven were minors.

Britain

December 31. At least 1,892 migrants successfully crossed the English Channel in 2019, according to the BBC. This represents a six-fold increase over 2018, when 283 migrants successfully crossed the Channel, according to the Home Office, which also revealed that 130 people were convicted of people smuggling in 2019.

December 26. Approximately 50 migrants were rescued in the English Channel. The migrants were intercepted while crossing towards the coast near Kent in four small vessels at around 1.30 am. Two other boats were stopped by French authorities and turned back. The migrants were said to be from Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq.

December 5. Nineteen migrants were stopped while trying to cross the English Channel on an inflatable boat. The migrants — eleven men, four women and four children — were from Iraq and Iran.

December 4. Seventy-nine migrants crossed the English Channel in five small boats. Three boats, carrying 48 people, were intercepted off the coast of Kent, while eleven people were rescued from a fourth vessel. A fifth dinghy was found abandoned on the beach in Kingsdown and 20 people were detained. It was believed to be the second-highest number of migrants to cross the Channel in a single day; 86 arrived on September 10.

November 26. Two people were arrested after ten migrants were found hidden in the back of a truck while it was parked at a gas station on the A14 motorway. Motorists watched on as the group were led out of the back of a truck by police near a main road in Godmanchester, Cambridgeshire. At one point a swaddled baby could be seen being cradled by its mother in the back of the vehicle.

November 25. Maurice Robinson, a 25-year-old truck driver from County Armagh in Northern Ireland who is accused in the deaths of more than three dozen migrants in Essex, pleaded guilty to conspiring with others to assist in illegal immigration. The charges relate to the deaths of 39 Vietnamese people, including children, who were discovered in the back of a refrigerated truck being driven Robinson in what appeared to be a botched people-smuggling operation. One of the victims, 26-year-old Pham Thi Tra My, sent distressed messages to family on the evening of October 22. “I am dying, I can’t breathe,” the text read. Her family said that they paid £30,000 (€35,000; $38,000) to people smugglers. Her last known location was Belgium.

November 25. Three men were charged with using a camper to smuggle Albanian migrants into the United Kingdom. Border Force officers at Dover said that they found four migrants hidden inside the vehicle when it was stopped after crossing from Dunkirk in France.

November 24. Thirteen migrants were rescued from a small boat crossing the English Channel. The migrants were taken to Folkestone in Kent.

November 17. Four boats carrying 39 migrants arrived in Dover within three hours of each other. The migrants claimed to be Iranian nationals.

November 10. Twenty-two migrants were intercepted off the coast of Dover.

November 9. Eight migrants were found on the back of a truck on the A14 motorway near the village of Spaldwick.

November 8. Samyar Ahmadi Bani, a 35-year-old people smuggler, was sentenced to six years in prison for attempting illegally to bring six Iranians into the United Kingdom.

November 7. Mohammed Asif, a 34-year-old British-Pakistani from Oldham, was sentenced to four years and nine months in prison for illegally obtaining British passports for 11 migrants by using the stolen identities of deceased people.

November 6. Fifteen migrants from Iraq and Iran were found leaving a refrigerated truck on the A350 motorway near Chippenham. The driver, a man in his 50s from Ireland, was arrested but later released on bail.

September 10. Border authorities intercepted 86 people in what was believed to be the highest number of migrants arriving in a single day. The arrivals came after warnings that the closure of a migrant camp in France could prompt a spike in the number of attempted Channel crossings.

Cyprus

November 12. Cypriot authorities rescued 120 Syrian migrants from a boat adrift off the island’s southeastern coast. The Syrians were brought ashore in the Cape Greco region after their vessel was sighted six nautical miles (11 km) off the coast of Cyprus. Those on board said they had paid $4,000 each for the journey to the smugglers, who managed to get away.

Finland

October 30. Two Iraqi residents in Finland were suspected of organizing the illegal entry of individuals into the country. Finnish border guards found in the men’s possession several photographs of passports that had either been reported stolen or missing. The offenses came to light when Russian border officials barred an Iraqi man carrying a forged French passport from travelling from St. Petersburg to Helsinki. Russian authorities later discovered that the man had arrived in Moscow a day earlier, on an Iranian passport with an authentic Russian visa. A preliminary investigation by the Finland Border Guard unit determined that the Iraqi man had paid €4,500 euros ($5,000) for the French passport.

France

December 31. At least 2,358 migrants were intercepted in the English Channel while attempting to reach Britain in 2019, according to French police. This was a four-fold increase compared to 2018, when 586 migrants were intercepted. In 2019, French police recorded a total of 261 crossings or attempted Channel crossings, mostly involving small inflatable boats that were overloaded with people. Approximately 45% of the crossings were successful, according to police.

December 30. Nineteen migrants were rescued off the coast of Dunkirk in the north of France who were trying to reach Britain on a small pleasure boat.

December 29. A total of 31 migrants were rescued in two boats, one off the coast of Calais and another near Dunkirk.

December 17. Ten migrants were intercepted off the coast of Cap Blanc-Nez. November 24. Eleven migrants were rescued after their boat faced trouble nearly seven miles west of Boulogne. They were suffering from hypothermia.

November 19. Four Iraqis and one Iranian were found in the back of a truck on the A20 motorway near Argenton-sur-Creuse.

November 13. Three Syrians and a Sudanese were found in the back of a truck at a Leroy Merlin depot in Valence.

November 6. Seven migrants in a vehicle were intercepted at a toll booth on the A64 motorway in Hautes-Pyrénées. The driver, a West African with Spanish residency, was also arrested on people smuggling charges.

November 2. Thirty-one Pakistani migrants were found in the back of a truck on the A8 motorway during a police check at a toll booth near Nice. The migrants were sent back to Italy.

October 31. Ten migrants, including from Eritrea, Pakistan and Somalia, were found in the back of a truck at a rest stop on the A9 motorway in Fabrègues. They had been trying to travel from Italy through France to reach Spain.

October 28. Eight Afghan migrants, including two children, were found with hypothermia in a refrigerated truck at the port of Calais.

October 19. Thirteen migrants, including one child, were found in the back of a cattle truck at the port of Calais. The British driver was detained by French authorities. Four others were arrested by the UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA) in a string of raids in Romford, London and Brentwood in Essex.

Greece

November 4. Greek police found 41 migrants, mostly Afghans, hiding in a refrigerated truck at a motorway in northern Greece. Police stopped the truck near the city of Xanthi for a routine check, arresting the driver and taking him and the migrants to a nearby police station for identification.

Ireland

November 21. Sixteen migrants, believed to be from Iraq and Iran, were found in the back of a truck travelling from France to the Irish port of Rosslare. They were found in a “sealed trailer” on a Stena Line ferry ship sailing from Cherbourg to Rosslare in County Wexford. The migrants reportedly believed they were going to the United Kingdom.

Italy

December 10. Italian police dismantled an Asian migrant smuggling gang that illegally brought thousands of Pakistanis, Indians and Bangladeshis into Italy and other European countries. Eight people were arrested in Italy and one in France. It is estimated that in two years the group managed to move more than 1,000 migrants and made profits of over one million euros.

December 4. Italian authorities allowed two migrant rescue ships carrying a total of 121 migrants to dock at ports in Sicily.

November 24. Italian authorities allowed the Spanish migrant rescue ship Open Arms to disembark 62 African migrants at the southern Italian port of Taranto.

November 23. Five migrants died and 149 were rescued after their boat capsized between Libya and the Italian island of Lampedusa.

November 3. An Italian offshore supply vessel Asso Trenta brought 151 migrants to Sicily after rescuing them in waters off Libya.

November 1. A humanitarian rescue ship with 88 migrants aboard entered Italian waters off Sicily to shelter from strong wind and waves. Sea-Eye said its vessel Alan Kurdi was awaiting assignment of a safe port by Italy.

Slovenia

November 28. Two Syrians hidden in the trunk of a car died when the vehicle carrying eight migrants crashed on a stretch of highway between Slovenia and Italy.

Netherlands

November 19. Dutch authorities found 25 migrants stowed away in a refrigerated container on a truck aboard a cargo ferry bound for Britain shortly after it left the Netherlands. The vessel returned to the Dutch port of Vlaardingen. Two of the migrants were taken to a hospital for treatment while the other 23 received a medical check-up at the port before being taken away by police for processing. The Romanian truck driver was arrested and questioned for possible involvement in people smuggling.

Macedonia

November 27. Twenty-five migrants, including seven minors, were injured when a Bulgarian-registered truck in which they were riding overturned on a highway in the northern town of Kumanovo. Police said 15 Afghans, nine Pakistanis and one Iraqi were transferred to a local hospital. Police said that the migrants entered Macedonia illegally from Greece.

Spain

November 30. Twenty-four migrants landed at Águila beach in the south of Gran Canaria, in Spain’s Canary Islands. The migrants had spent five days at sea.

November 29. Two Guinean migrants, aged 19 and 17, were found in a hidden compartment of a vehicle that attempted to cross into the Spanish exclave of Melilla from Morocco. Two Moroccan people smugglers were arrested.

November 27. Four migrants died and at least 10 more were missing after attempting a sea crossing to Spain. The boat was found around 30 nautical miles north of Melilla, a Spanish exclave city located on the northern coast of Africa. Rescuers saved around 55 people, three of whom were in serious condition.

November 18. A van carrying 52 migrants rammed at full speed a border fence at the Spanish exclave of Ceuta. The driver, a 38-year-old Moroccan people smuggler, was detained by Spanish police.

October 7. A Court in Teruel sentenced seven members of a people smuggling gang to a cumulative total of ten years in prison. The group was found guilty of trafficking persons between Iraq and the United Kingdom through Spain. The scheme was discovered when police found 14 migrants inside two refrigerated trucks on the A-23 motorway corridor between Sagunto near Valencia, Teruel and Zaragoza. The ringleader, a 36-year-old Iraqi named Shwana Rafiq, was sentenced to four years in prison; prosecutors had requested 14 years. His wife, Esperanza Martínez, was sentenced to two years in prison; prosecutors had requested 12 years. The others involved were sentenced to six months each; prosecutors had requested five years for each. The light sentences reflect the leniency of the Spanish justice system, which appears to encourage, rather than deter, people smuggling gangs.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This is scary!! There are no survivors after a Ukraine bound 737 –. 800 from Tehran crashes two minutes into the flight from the Tehran airport.  THE PLANE GOES DOWN IN A FIRE BALL AND ALSO WHEN IT DISAPPEARED FROM RADAR IT WAS CLIMBING IN ALTITUDE

(zerohedge)

No Survivors After Ukraine-Bound 737 Crashes Two Minutes Into Flight From Tehran

Update: There were no survivors in the Ukraine International 737-800 which crashed shortly after takeoff from Iran, according to the head of the Iranian Red Crescent’s Relief and Rescue Organization in an appearance on state television. The New York Timesmeanwhile, reports that the plane was carrying “at least 170 people,” while Bloomberg puts the number between 167 and 180. The cause of the crash has thus far been reported as a ‘technical problem.’

 

A Boeing 737-800 of the Ukraine International airline in Duesseldorf, Germany, in September.Credit…Ina Fassbender/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Four helicopters and 22 ambulances were sent to the crash site, according to Bloomberg.

Aviation Newsroom@Aviation_NewsTW

Updated photos of air crash flight @isna_farsi

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Aviation Newsroom@Aviation_NewsTW

: More video about air crash flight

Embedded video

Aviation Newsroom@Aviation_NewsTW

Another latest photo

View image on Twitter

 

Rescue crews said they could not save anyone Pic: Iranian Red Crescent

Bahman Kalbasi

@BahmanKalbasi

Nothing left of it. This is gut wrenching->

Embedded video

The flight, Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, departed Imam Khomenei International Airport at 6:12 a.m. on Wednesday bound for Kiev, Ukraine. It lost contact at 6:14 a.m. according to a flight tracker.

Flightradar24

@flightradar24

We are following reports that a Ukrainian 737-800 has crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran. departed Tehran at 02:42UTC. Last ADS-B data received at 02:44UTC. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ps752#23732569 

View image on Twitter

Flightradar24

@flightradar24

ADS-B data and aircraft information regarding . https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukrainian-flight-ps752-crashes-shortly-after-take-off-from-tehran/ 

PS752 was operated by a 737-800 (not a MAX) registered UR-PSR. Delivered new to Ukraine International Airlines in 2016.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

***

Raising chilling memories of the downing of MH-17 (false-flag) in Ukraine, the devastating news that a Ukrainian Airlines Boeing 737 passenger jet has crashed following takeoff from Iran is fascinatingly coincidental with tonight’s massive escalation (and rapid de-escalation) in Iraq.

Iranian state TV has confirmed the Ukrainian airplane, carrying 180 passengers and crew, has crashed near Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport in Iran, after suffering technical problems minutes after take-off.

An investigation team was at the site of the crash in southwestern outskirts of Tehran, civil aviation spokesman Reza Jafarzadeh said.

The following clip is circulating social media claiming to be the last few seconds of the flight. Judging by the fireball, “technical” problems would be an understatement…

Strategic Sentinel

@StratSentinel

Alleged footage of International Airline flight number that crashed in . Flight ends in a massive fireball… https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250 

Ali Hashem علي هاشم

@alihashem_tv

Replying to @alihashem_tv

#Breaking First footage of the Ukrainian airplane while on fire falling near #Tehran

Embedded video

There is something odd about this though, as FlightRadar24 shows, the plane was gaining altitude at around 8,000 feet when it suddenly disappears…

This terrible accident comes after Iranian President Rouhani appeared to threaten a western airliner,

Hassan Rouhani

@HassanRouhani

Those who refer to the number 52 should also remember the number 290.
Never threaten the Iranian nation.

290 is a reference to the death toll from downed Iran Air Flight 655: in 1988, the U.S. warship Vincennes mistakenly shot  down an Iranian passenger plane over the Gulf, killing all 290 aboard.

The attack was the deadliest aviation disaster involving an Airbus A300, as well as the deadliest to occur in Iran.

Shaun King

@shaunking

If you don’t know the story of Iranian Air Flight 655, then you don’t fully understand American-Iranian relations.

On July 3, 1988 the US Navy used missiles to shoot down an Iranian passenger jet – killing all 290 civilians – including 66 children – on board.

Embedded video

END
This is no “mechanical failure”..Iran refuses to hand over the black box.  It looks like the plane came in connect with missiles fired from Tehran
(zerohedge)

Iran Refuses To Hand Over Crash Data, Stoking Speculation Plane Was Accidentally Shot Down

Iran will reportedly refuse to hand over black box data from the Boeing 737 that crashed over Tehran last night to Boeing, stoking speculation that the aircraft was shot down by an Iranian missile.

Video of wreckage from the crash, which shows shattered bodies and debris spread over a wide area, has surfaced on social media.

روزنامه ایران

@IranNewspaper

سوگواری خانواده های جانباختگان سقوط هواپیما
گروه چند رسانه ای ایران
🔸 http://ion.ir

Embedded video

As we reported overnight, the 737 800, which is very different from the 737 MAX and has an excellent safety track record, crashed over Tehran just minutes after takeoff, killing all 176 people onboard.

Ukraine International Airlines said in a statement that the plane that crashed was in excellent condition, adding that it was “one of the best planes” in UIA’s fleet, and had undergone necessary maintenance just days before the crash, RT reports.

The Boeing 737-800, which was delivered to UIA in 2016, was “in excellent condition” before its last flight from Tehran to Kiev, Evgeny Dykhne, the company’s president, told reporters in Kiev, also describing the aircraft as “one of the best.”

Overnight, the rumor mill pointed to mechanical errors, which caused Boeing’s shares, already under pressure from the 737 MAX fallout, to slide.

UIA flight director Ihor Sosnovsky even ruled out pilot error as a potential cause of the crash, explaining that the ill-fated flight was manned by a “reinforced crew,” including Captain Volodymyr Yaponenko, Pilot Instructor Oleksiy Naumkin and First Officer Serhiy Khomenko.

All of this makes Iran’s rumored decision not to fork over the black box data more suspicious. Was the plane accidentally struck by an Iranian missile? The timing sure seems suspicious, given that the plane crashed over Iran during the same timeframe that the country was lobbing missiles at American bases in Iraq.

To us, if the plane just happened to crash over Iran just as the country was firing off missiles, well, that certainly would be one hell of a coincidence, wouldn’t it?

As one analyst claimed, there was “absolutely no way” the crash was due to mechanical difficulties, offering an explanation that sounds fairly convincing.

kraigernetes@craig_tracey

There is absolutely no way that the Ukrainian plane crash in Iran is due to mechanical difficulties.

Which mechanical failures immediately drop all ADS-B transmissions on a new plane in a conflict zone? None.

Data looks similar to MH17.

View image on Twitter

So how does a trader exploit this? The most obvious play would be to take a look at Boeing shares. If it’s confirmed the manufacturer and airline aren’t to blame for the crash, we imagine Boeing shares will rebound.

Most of the passengers on board were making connecting flights via Kiev’s Boryspil airport, the main hub for UIA. Among the dead were citizens of Iran, Canada, Germany, the UK, Sweden and Afghanistan.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky directed the government to launch an inquiry and to “consider all possible versions [of the crash].”

Boeing has launched an investigation into the crash, while Iran has launched a criminal investigation – or what might be more accurately described as a hunt for a scapegoat.

In other news, a complete list of passengers has been released by the airline:

Surname, Name, Year of Birth

Abaspourqadi Mohamm 1986
Abbasnezhad Mojtaba 1993
Abtahiforoushani Seyedmehran 1982
Aghabali Iman 1991
Agha Miri Maryam 1973
Ahmadi Motahereh 2011
Ahmadi Muh Sen 2014
Ahmadi Rahmtin 2010
Ahmadi Sekinhe 1989
Ahmady Mitra 1973
Amirliravi Mahsa 1989
Arasteh Fareed 1987
Arbabbahrami Arshia 2000
Arsalani Evin 1990
Asadilari Mohammadhossein 1996
Asadilari Zeynab 1998
Ashrafi Habibabadi Amir 1991
Attar Mahmood 1950
Azadian Roja 1977
Azhdari Ghanimat 1983
Badiei Ardestani Mehraban 2001
Bashiri Samira 1990
Beiruti Mohammad Amin 1990
Borghei Negar 1989
Choupannejad Shekoufeh 1963
Dadashnejad Delaram 1993
Daneshmand Mojgan 1976
Dhirani Asgar 1945
Djavadi Asll Hamidreza 1967
Djavadi Asll Kian 2002
Ebnoddin Hamidi Ardalan 1971
Ebnoddin Hamidi Kamyar 2004
Ebrahim Niloufar 1985
Ebrahimi Khoei Behnaz 1974
Eghbali Bazoft Shahrokh 1960
Eghbali Bazoft Shahzad 2011
Eghbalian Parisa 1977
Elyasi Mohammad Mahdi 1991
Emami Sayedmahdi 1959
Emami Sophie 2014
Eshaghian Dorcheh Mehdi 1995
Esmaeilion Reera 2010
Esnaashary Esfahani Mansour 1990
Faghihi Sharieh 1961
Falsafi Faezeh 1973
Falsafi Faraz 1988
Farzaneh Aida 1986
Feghahati Shakiba 1980
Foroutan Marzieh 1982
Ghaderpanah Iman 1985
Ghaderpanah Parinaz 1986
Ghafouri Azar Siavash 1984
Ghandchi Daniel 2011
Ghandchi Dorsa 2003
Ghasemi Ariani Milad 1987
Ghasemi Dastjerdi Fatemeh 1994
Ghasemi Amirhossein 1987
Ghasemi Kiana 2000
Ghavi Mandieh 1999
Ghavi Masoumeh 1989
Gholami Farideh 1981
Ghorbani Bahabadi A 1998
Golbabapour Suzan 1970
Gorji Pouneh 1994
Haghjoo Saharnaz 1982
Hajesfandiari Bahareh 1978
Hajiaghavand Sadaf 1992
Hajighassemi Mandieh 1981
Hamzeei Sara 1986
Hasani/sadi Zahra 1994
Hashemi Shanrzad 1974
Hassannezhad Parsa 2003
Hatefi Mostaghim Sahan 1987
Hayatdavoudi Hadis 1992
Jadidi Elsa 2011
Jadidi Pedran 1991
Jamshidi Shadi 1988
Jebelli Mohammaddam 1990
Kadkhoda Zaden Mohammaddam 1979
Kadkhodazaden Kasha 1990
Karamimoghadam Bahareh 1986
Katebi Rahimen 1999
Kaveh Azaden 1979
Kazerani Fatemeh 1987
Khadem Forough 1981
Kobiuk Olga 1958
Lindberg Emil 2012
Lindberg Erik 2010
Lindberg Raheleh 1982
Lindberg Mikael 1979
Madani Firouzeh 1965
Maghsoudlouestarabadi Siavash 1976
Maghsoudlouesterabadi Paria 2004
Mahmoodi Fatemeh 1989
Malakhova Olena 1981
Malek Maryam 1979
Maleki Dizaje Fereshteh 1972
Mamani Sara 1983
Mianji Mohammadjavad 1992
Moeini Mohammad 1984
Moghaddam Rosstin 2010
Mohammadi Mehdi 1999
Molani Hiva 1981
Molani Kurdia 2018
Moradi Amir 1998
Morattab Arvin 1984
Moshrefrazavimoghaddam Soheila 1964
Mousavi Daria 2005
Mousavi Dorina 2010
Mousavibafrooei Pedram 1972
Nabiyi Elnaz 1989
Naderi Farzahen 1981
Naghibi Zahra 1975
Naghib Lahouti Mehr 1987
Nahavandi Milad 1985
Niazi Arnica 2011
Niazi Arsan 2008
Niknam Farhad 1975
Norouzi Alireza 2008
Nourian Ghazal 1993
Oladi Alma 1992
Omidbakhsh Roja 1996
Ovaysi Amir Hossein 1978
Ovaysi Asal 2013
Pasavand Fatemeh 2002
Pey Alireza 1972
Pourghaderi Ayeshe 1983
Pourjam Mansour 1966
Pourshabanoshibi Naser 1966
Pourzarabi Arash 1993
Raana Shahab 1983
Rahimi Jiwan 2016
Rahimi Razgar 1981
Rahmanifar Nasim 1994
Razzaghi Khamsi Ni 1974
Rezai Mahdi 2000
Rezae Hossain 1999
Saadat Saba 1998
Saadat Sara 1996
Saadat Zeinolabedin 1990
Saati Kasra 1972
Sadeghi Alvand 1990
Sadeghi Anisa 2009
Sadeghi Mirmohammad 1976
Sadeghi Sahand 1980
Sadighi Neda 1969
Sadr Niloufar 1958
Sadr Seyednoojan 2008
Saeedinia Amirhosse 1994
Safarpoorkoloor Pe 1999
Saket Mohammadhosse 1986
Salahi Moh 1988
Saleheh Mohammad 1987
Saraeian Sajedeh 1993
Setareh Kokab Hamid 1988
Shadkhoo Sheyda 1978
Shaterpour Khiaban 1988
Soltani Paniz 1991
Tahmasebi Khademasa 1984
Tajik Mahdi 1999
Tajik Shahram 1998
Tarbhai Afifa 1964
Tarbha Alina 1988
Toghian Darya 1997
Zarei Arad 2002
Zibaie Maya 2004
Zokaei Sam 1977

END
It appears to a “a shootdown” event???? No question about it:  crash site clearly shows projectile holes in the plane’s fuselage and wing
(zerohedge)

Tehran Plane Crash Appears To Be “A Shootdown Event,” Experts Say

A group of aerospace experts said Wednesday that Ukrainian International Airlines flight 752, which seemingly dropped out of the sky minutes after takeoff last night in Tehran, was likely shot out of the sky.

According to a report cited by the Independent, analysts should start from the assumption that the plane, which had 176 people on board, none of whom survived, crashed as the result of a “shootdown.” While others insisted that it’s still too early to jump to conclusions, the OPS group, an aviation risk monitoring group, said photos from the crash site clearly show projectile holes in the plane’s fuselage and wing.

“We would recommend the starting assumption to be that this was a shootdown event, similar to MH17 – until there is clear evidence to the contrary,” highlighting photos of the crash site which they said show obvious projectile holes in the fuselage and a wing section.”

The Boeing Co. 737-800 single-aisle jet crashed two minutes after takeoff from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport while en route to Kiev.

Photos of the crash site showing thousands of pieces of scattered and charred debris.

And if there was any time for Iran’s defense system to misfire, doesn’t it seem more likely that the system would be accidentally triggered immediately after takeoff?

Ukrainian International Airlines has also discounted the possibility of technical problems, insisting there was “nothing wrong” with the three-year old Boeing 737-800, which had undergone a scheduled technical check only two days earlier.

“We guarantee the safety of our aircraft and the high qualification of our crews,” a spokesperson said.

 

As we reported earlier, Iran has said it has no plans to hand over the black box from the crash to Boeing, citing the state of relations with the US.

Qassem Biniaz, a spokesman for Iran’s Road and Transportation Ministry, claims the pilots “lost control of the plane” after a fire broke out in one of the plane’s engines. Whatever led the Iranians to this conclusion is unclear. Though the plane is a predecessor to the Boeing 737 Max 8, which has been grounded for 10 months following the Lion Air crash in 2018, it actually has a sterling safety record.

Doesn’t it seem far more likely that a misfiring of Iran’s defense system might have brought down the plane?

END

Expect more reprisals from Iran as they target soft targets
(zerohedge)

“Almost Inconceivable” That Attacks In Iraq Will Mark End Of Iranian Retaliation, Experts Say

Following a message from President Trump claiming “all is well”, and another comment from Iranian Foreign Minister Javid Zarif claiming that Iran had “concluded” its reprisals for the killing of General Suleimani, markets have latched on to the belief that perhaps Iran is finished with its retaliation, while Trump appears to have found the “off ramp” that he was looking for.

But traders aren’t the only ones betting on peace: Following the events of last night, journalists and regular people on the street have apparently started to realize that this isn’t the beginning of WWIII after all. 

But according to several analysts and Iran experts, anybody who thinks this is the end of it is being tragically naive.

 

Let’s start with one of the most well-known journalists in the US, Iranian-American Yashar Ali, who delivered the following tweet thread warning the US that, if history is any guide, Iran’s true reprisal will come in the form of a terror attack on civilians, likely carried out via proxies.

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

1. I want to express this carefully cause I don’t want to minimize anything that results in loss of life. But missiles flying back/forth in Mid East is all too common (something US can handle) & not what makes me nervous about the Soleimani situation

Here’s what makes me nervous https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1214684989952077824 

Dan Lamothe

@DanLamothe

U.S. defense official confirms that Al Asad air base in Iraq’s Anbar province has been hit by at least six rockets tonight. Additional details unclear. But very credible source.

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

2. What makes me nervous is illustrated in the WSJ story. The Iranian government has always operated on its own timeline. If you think Iran lobbing missiles over the border is the kind of revenge they ultimately have in mind, you’re wrong. https://on.wsj.com/2QYlSMP

In Past Retaliation, Iran Has Aimed for Soft Targets

In Past Retaliation, Iran Has Aimed for Soft Targets

Iran has pledged to retaliate after the killing of one of its top military commanders. Tehran has retaliated before when officials and allies were targeted, choosing sites from Thailand and India to…

wsj.com

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

3. Example: In 2012, assassins kill an Iranian nuclear chemist (likely directed by Israel). Iran promises revenge.

Where does the ultimate revenge take place?

A month later in Georgia, India and Thailand where Israeli diplomats are targeted with bombshttps://on.wsj.com/2QYlSMP

View image on Twitter

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

4. Example: In 1992, IDF killed the Sec General of Hezbollah

Where did Iran retaliate?

In Buenos Aires with a truck bomb driven into the Israeli embassy. That attack killed 29 people

Another attack two years later took place at the Jewish Community Center killing 85 people

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

5. Those examples are pretty tight timelines for Iranians. The Iranian gov sees revenge as almost a generational thing…their timeline can be in months/years. Revenge always doesn’t come via a show of force they take PUBLIC credit for.

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

6. So what I’m saying is all these people with their chest thumping, I would be cautious about what you see as Iranian revenge and unfortunately prepare yourselves for the kind of attacks that are unexpected, that don’t follow a tight timeline, and show up where you least expect

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

7. If people think that this is it…that Iran has chosen to retaliate against the US for killing the second most powerful man in Iran, by lobbing some missiles across the border that didn’t result in US casualties then I have a bridge to sell you https://twitter.com/KattyKay_/status/1214726523103657984 

Katty Kay

@KattyKay_

If there are no US casualties, and the White House takes its time assessing reaping then there could be a window for de-escalation. Iran tonight saying it will halt attacks if US doesn’t respond to these rocket strikes.

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

8. I can’t believe I’m seeing people saying that this was a face saving move by Iran and now that there haven’t been any US casualties, that we should move on.

The level of naivety is astonishing.

Do people really think this is how Iran is going to retaliate?

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

9. Read Jake’s tweet…for those of you thinking this is just a weak response from Iran & that they’re terrified of the US mil, ask yourself if this how a nation that has funded attacks globally would respond to the killing of its most important Generalhttps://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1214740700711051266?s=21  https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1214740700711051266 

Jake Tapper

@jaketapper

US military official & sr admin official tell @rabrowne75 and @PamelaBrownCNN that the *initial* assessment is that the Iranian missiles struck areas of the al-Asad base not populated by Americans though US is awaiting daylight to get a full assessment. Iraqi casualties reported.

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

10. That may very well be true, but if people think this is the only way Iranians will respond then they’re unaware of the reality. So while POTUS is taking the off ramp, the Iranians will sit and wait and do what they want and when they want to do it. https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/1214744125637111810?s=21  https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/1214744125637111810 

Maggie Haberman

@maggieNYT

Some around POTUS think he is looking for an off-ramp. https://twitter.com/davidlauter/status/1214743859986599936 

Yashar Ali 🐘

@yashar

11. The problem is so many people have thought about this situation through the lens of conventional warfare. So they believe if there is no conventional warfare that the situation has deescalated.

But conventional warfare should have never been the concern!

Indeed, CNBC adds that blowback from Iran could continue for years, and could come in the form of covert diplomatic action, cyberterrorism or even a more conventional attack.

If President Trump is suitably respectful during his expected address to the nation on Wednesday, then Iran might deliver another “overt response” in the coming days. Jarrett Blanc, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned of such a response in an interview with CNBC.

But if Trump gloats about how the US killed one of their top generals, and all they did was blow up a bunch of rockets in the desert, then it’s possible that a furious Tehran could ratchet up the conventional weapons response.

Blanc said: “If he gloats that, you know, we’ve killed a top Iranian general and all they’ve done is hit the desert, he greatly increases the chances that there will be a further, overt response from Iran and again, increase the chance of a rapid escalation toward a really large scale conflict in the region.”

If Trump doesn’t gloat, then it’s possible that could help defuse the situation, at least in the short term.

“If he manages to keep the gloating to a minimum, it’s possible that the large scale, overt response has been satisfied and we move again into the more covert responses which, while terrible and potentially very damaging, don’t quite pose the same risk of war in the short term.”

 

But even if Trump doesn’t say anything to offend the Iranians, Blanc believes that it’s “almost inconceivable” that this is the last of Iran’s retaliation.

“I think it is almost inconceivable that this is the end of Iran’s reaction,” he said. “It might be the end of Iran’s short-term reaction, it might be the end of Iran’s overt reactions, but I think that there will continue to be blowbacks from Iran from the Soleimani assassination, whether that’s covert action or certainly diplomatic action over the mid to long term,” Blanc said.

Looking ahead, there’s a “huge number” of directions that Iran can take, Blanc said. “They can certainly have their own assassination attempt. There could be a covert or terrorist attacks against US interests in the region, or elsewhere.”

Among the most likely scenarios is that Tehran will continue to push the Iraqi government to expel US troops, even as Trump sends reinforcements to the region.

“If they go through that entire process and make that decision, I think the United States is going to have to leave despite President Trump’s bluster,” he said. “My instinct is that, the end of U.S. military involvement, U.S. military presence in Iraq is in sight.”

“The Iranians have an opportunity now to force us out and, though it is of mixed interest from their perspective, they’ll probably take advantage of that opportunity,” he added.

Setting aside what’s next for Iran, Commentary’s Noah Rothman points out that Iranian-linked rocket attacks on US positions in Iraq are nothing new. As of late December, there had been 11 Iran-linked rocket attacks on US positions in Iraq, including in the green zone, over 2 months, some of which produced American casualties.

Noah Rothman

@NoahCRothman

This is retaliatory, asymmetric, and destabilizing. It is a response to Solemani. But it’s also not new. As of late Dec, there had been 11 Iran-linked rocket attacks on US positions in Iraq, including green zone, over 2 months producing American casualties https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/12/29/world/middleeast/us-airstrikes-iran-iraq-syria.amp.html  https://twitter.com/presstv/status/1214688299316588545 

Iraqi Shiite fighters from Kataib Hezbollah during a military parade in Baghdad in May.

U.S. Launches Airstrikes on Iranian-Backed Forces in Iraq and Syria

The strikes were a response to a rocket attack that killed an American contractor.

nytimes.com

Press TV

@PressTV

🔴 🇮🇷 BREAKING 🇮🇷 🔴#IRGC confirms hitting #US #AinAlAssad airbase in #Iraq with tens of missiles.#GeneralSoleimani #DecisiveResponse #SoleimaniAssassination

View image on Twitter

Meanwhile, Iran’s IRGC warned last night that any more attacks on Iran will result in “more painful and crushing responses,” including possibly against Israel.

“We warn the Great Satan, the bloodthirsty and arrogant regime of the US, that any new wicked act or more moves and aggressions [against Iran] will bring about more painful and crushing responses.”

For now, investors will simply need to wait to hear from President Trump to learn what might come next.

END

The Ayatollah proclaims that the latest missile attack on American assets in Iraq is a slap in the face to the USA. He hints on more reprisals

(zerohedge)

Ayatollah Proclaims Missile Strikes A “Slap In The Face” Against “Corrupt” US

During his first comments since last night’s series of rocket attacks coming from the Iranian regime, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described Iran’s sand-pounding counterattack as a “slap in the face” delivered against the US.

The last time we heard from the Ayatollah, he vowed “severe revenge” against the US for the killing of General Suleimani, who was finally laid to rest on Tuesday after a stampede during his funeral procession on Monday delayed his burial.

Khamenei said that the strikes served as a “slap in the face” for the United States, but were not “sufficient” to remove “the corrupting presence of America in the region.”

 

The Ayatollah again stated unequivocally that Tehran views Washington as its enemy.

Iran’s IRGC claimed responsibility for last night’s barrage, which the Pentagon claimed was launched from Iran. The attack, which started around 5:30 ET, involved firing some 15 missiles, 10 of which hit the Ayn al-Asad base in western Iraq and another facility in Erbil. Another missile struck the Taji air base near Baghdad, and another four fell out of the sky. No Americans were killed during the attacks.

In a comment that sounded like he could be hinting at future attacks, the Ayatollah asked “what is our duty now?”

“One important issue is what is our duty now?” following Soleimani’s assassination, said the supreme leader.

“An important incident has happened. The question of revenge is another issue,” said Khamenei.

“Military actions in this form are not sufficient for that issue,” he said, referring to the assassination.

“What is important is that America’s corrupt presence must come to an end in this region.”

In a separate statement, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that while the US may have “cut off the arm” of assassinated Quds Force commander General Qassem Soleimani, Iran will respond by severing America’s “leg” in the region.

END

Tanker operations suspend travel through the Straits of Hormuz

(zeorhedge)

Tanker Operators Suspend Travel Through Strait Of Hormuz

Following Iran’s decision to lob missiles at US-Iraqi bases last night, several major tanker operators have suspended sailing through the Straits of Hormuz, the site of several tanker attacks last year.

Petrobras, Bahri – Saudi Arabia’s state-run tanker operator – and other tanker companies have suspended sailing through the Straits of Hormuz, WSJ reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile, Gulf officials are already trying to convince the world that there’s nothing to worry about in what’s essentially a tinderbox inside another tinderbox. United Arab Emirates’ Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Wednesday he saw no immediate risk to oil passing through the critical gateway through which 20% of the global supply of crude travels. al-Mazrouei made the comments on the sidelines of a conference in Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital.

The source of their concerns is clear: Iran carried out its “retaliation” for the killing of General Suleimani last night – though the Pentagon has confirmed that there have been no American casualties from Iran’s strikes. However, many fear that Iran isn’t finished with its retaliation.

Mazrouei added that OPEC was not discussing any precautionary steps at the moment, but would re-evaluate the situation if a supply shortage emerged, according to Reuters. He said earlier that the global oil market was well supplied.

Oil prices initially moved higher after last night’s attacks, but prices have since settled, and the market largely ignored the news about the tanker suspensions, as it was already largely priced in.

On Tuesday, Washington warned about “the possibility of Iranian action against US maritime interests” in the Middle East.

“U.S. commercial vessels are advised to exercise caution and coordinate vessel voyage planning for transits of the Persian Gulf and nearby waterways,” the U.S. Maritime Administration said in a statement on its website.

UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace over the weekend sent two warships to the Strait of Hormuz to prevent attacks on British-flagged tankers.

The cancellations mark an apparent about face after WSJ reported earlier on Tuesday that tanker operators in the region didn’t expect their ships to be targeted in the near term as part of any tit-for-tat escalation between Iran and the US.

“The Middle East is like a powder keg, but we don’t expect any attacks on tankers, at least for now,” said an executive at a Europe-based operator of more than two dozen tankers. “We’ve had some verbal assurances [from Iran] that ships won’t be hit, so we keep our fingers crossed.”

It’s understandable that the industry is on edge: Ship insurers have already paid out more than $100 million in compensation over last year’s attacks. Meanwhile, daily tanker freight rates soared in September from $18,500 to more than $200,000 after Trump slapped sanctions on tankers run by a unit of Chinese state-owned Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co., one of the world’s largest tanker companies, for allegedly violating sanctions.

Freight rates have since settled between $80,000 and $120,000, depending on the ship. But with the region set to remain turbulent, analysts expect rates to remain “elevated” for the foreseeable future.

END
Bill Blain on yesterday’s events/  The big question is whether Trump will up the ante
(BillBlain)

Blain: “All That Matters Now Is How Trump Will React”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“Quit behaving like a family and become more like a team. If you don’t perform, you don’t stay on the team…”*

In the wake of missiles and plane crashes, it’s likely to be the kind of day market analysts refer to as: “fast evolving”.

The big news is about Iran shooting off a bunch of dumb missiles at well prepared US bases in Iraq.  But we’re not asking questions about how an ant of a country like Iran hopes to hurt the American Elephant… The uncertainty is all about how the American President will react.  And if Trump does decide to go full Travis Bickle and retaliates – what signal might it send? Small terrorist-harbouring nations assuming asymmetric warfare means they are protected by the basic decency and the established law and order of the West… will have to think again.

It’s going to be interesting…

After yesterday’s histrionics and crowd stampede at the funeral, the Iranians had no choice but to respond to the Soleimani execution.. Firing fairly inaccurate ballistic missiles off into the desert at well dispersed airbases makes lots of noise and looks spectacular – but are unlikely to have caused much damage or casualties (unless both sides got unlucky.)

Trump can shrug it off, look statesman-like, and get on with the main business of the November election. Or maybe something dramatic – say the USAF carpet bombing Tehran with leaflets just saying… “Next Time..”  That’s probably over-subtle for Donnie.

My bet is that whatever happens next, markets will quickly shrug it off…. The chances for de-escalation look high, but….

Gold

It’s not often I write about Gold.  However, so many articles are talking about why we might be in a Gold Bull Market, it’s probably worth thinking about.  Yesterday I was chatting to my commodities colleague, Ashley Booell.  Last year, he predicted Gold would enter a bull phase, calling for$1580 in mid 2019 – which it hit.  Now his target is $1630, and if it builds a “proper foundation” there, then a $2000 scenario is possible.

Ashely says: “A lot of people describe gold as a hedge against inflation and a store of value. I’d go further by saying that gold is insurance against market and geopolitical insanity. And right now, things are bloody insane.” He predicted gold could rally on the trifecta of market risk, geopolitical risk and recession risk. “Have these gone away? Hell no!” he told me.

They’re like the three parts of a trident wielded by a very angry titan that can’t wait to shatter the financial system. But jokes aside, it is rare for these three risks to be so strong at the same time. Each of them can easily add $ 100 to gold’s price if things get bad.” 

Sure enough, Gold hit $1620 last night before sliding back a tad.

Aside from reacting to market events, what is the point of Gold? Its only inherent values are its scarcity and an indicator of inflationary threats.  It yields diddley-squat – just like a bund! It massively over-performs in time of panic and meltdown, and massively corrects as calm is restored.  Its primary investment purpose is as an inflationary hedge, but that vanished following the death of inflation after central bank monetary experimentation – leading to a price collapse in 2013 when it became clear financial asset inflation was de-linked from real world deflationary threats as a result of QE and other policy mistakes.

Why is Gold now rising? All risk assets rose through 2019 on the back of easy monetary policy, and Gold got dragged higher in the slipstream, and because it might prove a hedge if the Central Bank confidence rally broke. The move this year is largely ascribed to unpredictable US policy and potential instability in the wake of the assassination of General Soleimani.

But… there is also an element of the rise that is due to increasing signals that rising inflation expectations are returning. There are similar signals in rising market activity in inflation linked bonds and hedges. Is Gold telling us something about inflation we don’t understand or haven’t spotted?

Boeing

The other big news overnight has been the story about a B-737 800 crash outside Tehran. It was a relatively new plane – but a precursor model to the cursed 737 Max. It was operated by Ukraine International Airways which has a modern properly maintained fleet, and a decent track record. The fact the aircraft suddenly vanished as it climbed after take-off around 9000 feet with no emergency called is worrying.  The shout it was an accident looks suspiciously swift to me. It could be weeks/months before we know what happened.

Boeing itself remains in the news. There are rumours Warren Buffet has been building a stake in the troubled planemaker. That’s intriguing. With nearly 400 finished B-737 Max aircraft sitting useless on the tarmac unpaid for, sacking the CEO over Christmas, rumours the company will need to raise money from the bond market, serious questions about its management structure, it looks like a company in serious trouble. This great article in the WSJ – Botched Predictions, Strife with Regulators Cost Boeing CEO His Job – is well worth a read.

What makes Boeing so interesting? Is this the right time to buy? The stock seems incapable of going much lower. Its not just that its core to the US military industrial complex, a massive multiplier across the US economy and the biggest stock on the Dow. It’s attractiveness is all down to its “Moat”.

I suspect Moat will become the most overused word of 2020 – it basically means how entrenched and resilient to competition a company is. Boeing has a very deep and wide Moat around itself – it will take years for any competitor to build up the logistical scale, product range and knowledge, and relationship strengths to compete head to head with the Boeing/Airbus monopoly.

On the other hand, Boeing’s decision to not build a 737 successor years ago, and the fact it cash strapped today opens the chance for someone to think about trying to bridge that Moat. Boeing will need 7 years and $30 bln dollars to introduce a new plane. Anyone fancy a go?

· Anyone intrigued by this morning’s quote – it’s taken from a comment by former McDonnell Douglas CEO Harry Stonecipher. It’s an old story, but important to understand in terms of where Boeing went wrong. Famously when Boeing acquired rival airplane maker Mcdonnell Douglas it became referred to as “Harry buying Boeing with Boeing’s money”. The engineering centric ethos of Boeing was lost as McD costcutters took over.

Carlos Ghosn

The other other big event today will likely be the Carlos Ghosn press conference. It’s well worth reading the story of his escape, but I can’t wait to hear him stick it to the Japanese and Nissan.  But, really, what will it tell us? That Japan is different and does things differently?  That is hardly enlightening.

end

TURKEY/RUSSIA/LIBYA

With Hafter’s forces on the doorstep of Tripoli, Erdogan and Putin are demanding that this Saturday is the deadline for an urgent ceasefire.  It has no chances of success.  Erdogan is on the side of the GNA because he wants the Mediterranean oil/gas concessions he won from the Tripoli government.

(zerohedge)

Putin & Erdogan Set Saturday Deadline For Urgent Libya Ceasefire As War Escalates

With Putin in Turkey on Wednesday ceremonially launching the much-anticipated offshore pipeline TurkStream, which will supply Russian gas to Turkey and southern Europe, it’s actually events in Libya and Syria that are at the top of contentious discussions.

But there appears to have been a breakthrough which may or may not have any real impact on the Libyan war, just days after Turkey controversially ordered troops to Tripoli to the condemnation of pro-Haftar forces and its backers Egypt, the UAE, and Russia.

The Turkish and Russian presidents have called for a ceasefire in Libya that will start from Saturday (Jan.12) midnightaccording to Turkish FM Cavusoglu, cited in Turkish state media.

 

Kremlin pool via the AP.

The two sides issued a statement Wednesday calling for Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) to immediately come to the negotiating table.

As Middle East Eye reports:

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, speaking alongside his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, said he hopes the ceasefire will embolden the Berlin process seeking to resolve the conflict.

“In a joint statement Presidents Erdogan and Putin urge parties to stop violence” Cavusoglu said. Lavrov added that they expect neighbouring countries to actively join the Berlin process to help end the conflict.

It’s only the GNA which is recognized by the United Nations, and at least still on paper the United States as well — though Trump over the past half-year has issued public praise for Haftar, a dual US citizen considered close to the CIA.

The crisis has escalated over the past months as Haftar has declared his forces are in the “final offensive” to wrest control of the capital Tripoli from the GNA. On Saturday an LNA airstrike slammed into a military academy in Tripoli, killing at least 30 and injuring nearly 40.

 

Site of Saturday’s deadly airstrike on the GNA military academy in Tripoli, via One America News.

Previewing the urgency of the Libya matter as Putin was set to meet with Erdogan, Turkish media noted:

Perhaps topping the agenda is Libya – Turkey has deployed troops to support the U.N.-approved government in Tripoli against an assault by the Moscow-backed Libyan National Army, led by General Khalifa Haftar.

Russia has told Ankara that Turkish soldiers should not oppose Haftar’s militias, Deutsche Welle said citing one unidentified official. Erdoğan will assure Putin at Wednesday’s meeting that Turkish soldiers will not enter combat, other officials say.

But we doubt such “assurances” proved enough, given Turkey is already supplying the GNA with advanced military hardware such as drones to push back Haftar’s own small air force, which includes MiG fighters.

The Turkish and Russian joint statement further called on the US and Iran to “de-escalate tensions and prioritize diplomacy” at a moment the region is on the brink of war after the overnight Iranian ballistic missile retaliation on US bases in Iraq.

end
Rand Paul…

Rand Paul: “You’d Have To Be Brain Dead” To Think Soleimani’s Death Would ‘Deter’ Iran

Prior to Iran’s overnight retaliation attack on US bases in Iraq, Senator Rand Paul shredded the entire decision-making process that led to the current dangerous escalation, accurately predicting that Soleimani’s killing made it “much more likely” that Iran would escalate, instead of the administration’s claim that it would be “deterred” from further aggression.

“You would have to be brain dead to believe that we tear up the agreement, we put an embargo on you and we kill your major general, and they’re just going to crawl back to the table and say: ‘What do you want, America?'” Paul said in a CNN interview.

Breaking from other congressional Republicans, Paul blamed Pompeo and Trump for the “death of diplomacy” which can only lead to major war — bad for both the Iranian and American people, and yet another ‘war of choice’ catastrophe for the region.

 

During the Monday interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, Paul said that “the administration, mainly at (former national security adviser) John Bolton’s behest, tore up the Iran agreement, placed a significant and severe embargo on Iran and then killed one of their major generals.”

“Nobody in their right mind would actually think that would lead to negotiation.” 

He further called the Republican line on Soleimani — that his assassination was justified merely because he was “an evil bastard” tantamount to thinking like “grade-school children”.

And in follow-up statements on Tuesday, Sen. Paul told Fox News:

“The Iran agreement wasn’t perfect  and I was a critic of the Iran agreement  however, I think it was a big mistake to pull out of the Iran agreement. We should have tried to build upon the Iran agreement.”

“We’ve now killed one of their major generals. I think it is the death of diplomacy and I see no way to get it back started until the revenge of the Iranian people is somehow sated.”

Paul has also argued this week that the assassination of Gen. Soleimani was ultimately “an act of war” that required Congressional authorization.

Just hours before the Iranian ballistic missile attack which nearly took the world to the edge of yet another major Middle East war, Paul had told Fox, “It’s unknown how much military escalation, but I think there will be an escalation.”

And of course, it’s not over yet, but possibly just beginning, as one former CIA official saidWe should be prepared for months or even years of this, across theaters and with different tactics — all for choosing a path we never had to go down.”

end

6.Global Issues

 

A good explanation as to damaging effects of negative interest rates and for reasons outlined below Sweden has decided to end its experiment on negative rates

(Daniel LACALLE/Mises)

Why Sweden Ended Its Negative Interest Rate Experiment

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute,

Negative rates are the destruction of money, an economic aberration based on the mistakes of many central banks and some of their economists, who start with a wrong diagnosis: the idea that economic agents do not take more credit or invest more because they choose to save too much and that therefore saving must be penalized to stimulate the economy. Excuse the bluntness, but it is a ludicrous idea.

Inflation and growth are not low due to excess savings, but because of excess debt, perpetuating overcapacity with low rates and high liquidity, and zombifying the economy by subsidizing the low-productivity and highly indebted sectors and penalizing high productivity with rising and confiscatory taxation.

Historical evidence of negative rates shows that they do not help reduce debt, they incentivize it. They do not strengthen the credit capacity of families, because the prices of nonreplicable assets (real estate, etc.) skyrockets because of monetary excess, and the lower cost of debt does not compensate for the greater risk.

Investment and credit growth are not subdued because economic agents are ignorant or saving too much, but because they don’t have amnesia. Families and businesses are more cautious in their investment and spending decisions, because they perceive, correctly, that the reality of the economy that they see each day does not correspond to the cost and the quantity of money.

It is completely incorrect to think that families and businesses are not investing or spending. They are only spending less than what central planners would want. However, that is not a mistake from the private sector side, but a typical case of central planners’ misguided estimates, which come from using 2001–7 as a “base case” of investment and credit demand instead of what those years really were: a bubble.

The argument of the central planners is based on an inconsistency — that rates are negative because markets demand them, not because they are imposed by the central bank. If that is the case, why not let rates float freely if the result is going to be the same? Because it is false.

Think for a moment what type of investment, company, or financial decision is one that is profitable with rates at –0.5 percent but unviable with rates at 1 percent. A time bomb. It is no surprise that investment in bubble-prone sectors is rising with negative rates and nonreplicable and financial assets skyrocketing.

Public debt trades at artificially low yields and, instead of strengthening economies, negative rates make governments more dependent on cheap debt.Politicians abandon any reformist impulse and prefer to accumulate more debt.

The financial repression of central banks begins with a misdiagnosis, assuming that low growth and below-target inflation is a problem of demand, not of the previous excess, and ends up perpetuating the bubbles that they sought to solve.

The policy of negative rates can only be defended by people who have never invested or created a job, because no one that has worked in the real economy can believe that financial repression will lead economic agents to take much more credit and strengthen the economy.

Negative rates are a huge transfer of wealth from savers and real wages to the government and the indebted. A tax on caution. They are the destruction of the perception of risk that always benefits the most reckless. The bailout of the inefficient.

 

Central banks ignore the effects of demography, technology, and competition on inflation and the growth of consumption, credit, and investment, and with the wrong policies they generate new bubbles that become more dangerous than the previous ones. The next bubble will again increase the fiscal imbalances of the countries. When central banks present themselves as the agents that will reverse the effect of technology and demographics, they will be creating a greater risk and bubble.

Sweden launched its failed negative rate plan almost five years ago and has now reversed it due to the financial risks that are created. The most interesting thing is that it reversed the policy of negative rates precisely because of the risk of an economic slowdown, because the evidence shows that investment and consumption decisions do not increase with financial repression.

In Sweden, with negative rates, the real estate price index has increased 50 percent (from 160 points to 240), the average residential index has risen 27 percent, nonreplicable assets have risen between 30 and 70 percent (infrastructure, etc.), and the stock market has risen more than 20 percent. In that period, household consumption and investment (gross capital formation) have increased very little and real wages have remained stagnant.

Monetary policy has gone from being a support for structural reforms to an excuse to avoid them. Now, governments are delighted to read that “fiscal measures” must be implemented. And when a government hears “fiscal measures,” it translates it into “spending.” And when the eurozone governments start spending, the result is always the same: more debt and higher taxes.

In the eurozone, the economic aberration of negative rates continues despite the evidence of the collateral risks they generate. Meanwhile, you and I are blamed for not spending and borrowing more. What can go wrong?

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1125 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.67 UP 0.687 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3109   DOWN   0.0005  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3010 UP .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 30 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1125 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 37.91 POINTS OR 1.22% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 234.14 POINTS OR 0.83%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,19%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 234.14 POINTS OR 0.83%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.91 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 19% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 370.96  POINTS OR 1.57%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1578.85

silver:$18.41-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.80% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.29 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.11 UP 11 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.39% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.43//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,41 UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 98 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.21% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.63% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1115  DOWN     .0039 or 39 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.98 UP .984 OR YEN DOWN 99  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.31011 DOWN .1357 POUND DOWN 13  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 23 basis points to 1.3027

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8458    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8381  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9265 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.85 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.33 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.23 UP 23  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 5.90  0.14%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 92.92 POINTS OR .70%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 18.65 POINTS 0.31%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 1520 POINTS or 0.16%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 114.58 POINTS OR 0.48%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 60.86 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.87 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    61.53  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.44 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 44 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.21 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  60.11//

 

 

BRENT :  65.81

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.87..PLUS 5 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.36..PLUS 5 BASIS PTS..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1109 ( DOWN 45   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.11 UP 1.112 (YEN DOWN 112 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.31 UP 31 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:13096 DOWN 18   BASIS POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9098

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.25   UP 0.73 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 73 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3037 DOWN 36 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9458  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9368 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.21%

 

The Dow closed UP 161.81 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 60.66 POINTS OR 0.67%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.45 CLOSED DOWN .34

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.872%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Soar After MidEast De-Escalation Sparks Crude Carnage, Bond Bloodbath

Update: We note in the last few minutes of the day there were reports of rocket strikes in the Green Zone in Baghdad and that sparked some notable derisking into the close.

As Sven Henrich tweeted: “Do the guys that launch rockets consult technical charts?”

Does make you wonder?

*  *  *

From WW3 to Record Highs in 12 hours… missiles flew and so did tweets and now “all is well” again… Dow futures are up 700 points from overnight lows…

Nasdaq futures exploded a stunning 300 points off the lows…

For context, that’s a 3.3% rally from overnight lows for Nasdaq futures…

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged to a new record high.

Quite a ride – makes you think…

Chinese stocks were down overnight, but closed before the tensions de-escalated…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets opened ugly amid the escalations but ramped all the way back and then some during the day (except UK)…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US, stocks soared – almost back top unch by the open and then as Trump spoke everything exploded…Trannies and Nasdaq outperformed…

 

A squeeze at the open and into the European close was enough to ignite the momo…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, Defensives dominated Cyclicals intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL soared intraday (again) to a new record high as it seems the buyback machine is bidding for any dip…

But AAPL’s vol remains notably decoupled from the price…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Tesla continues to soar illogically becoming the most valuable US carmaker EVER (surpassing GM’s 1999 record high)…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was monkeyhammered back to a 12 handle and VIX futures crashed from over 17 overnight to a 13 handle…

But while VIX tumbled it remains notably decoupled from credit protection costs which have collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

Total chaos reined in bond land overnight with yields crashing on the missile strike and exploding higher as tension apparently eased (yields ended the day around 4-5bps higher but that hid the dramatic moves)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield rose a stunning 17bps off overnight lows (one-month lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar pushed higher to 2-week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

While most markets are pricing out geopolitical risk or any safe-haven premia, we note that the Swiss Franc is in great demand, soaring to its strongest against the euro since April 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore Yuan plunged overnight as the missiles struck only to rebound back to the highs..

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos remain notably higher since Soleimani’s death but gave back overnight gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin spiked up to $8500 overnight, but faded back as tensions de-escalated…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper was flat but overall commodities were lower on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold (in USD) spiked above $1610 overnight before falling back..

Gold in JPY reached its highest since January 1980…

Source: Bloomberg

And Gold in Euros reached a new all-time record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Not to be outdone, Palladium spiked above $2100 overnight, a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, oil… which exploded higher overnight, has collapsed as tensions de-escalated…

WTI topped $65.50 overnight only to crash to $59.15…

Brent spiked near $72 overnight, only to crash back below $65…

Source: Bloomberg

Brent is mirroring – almost perfectly – the move after the Saudi refinery attack… (today’s drop is the biggest since the day after the Abqaiq attack)

Source: Bloomberg

And as the melt-up continues, we wonder if we see Nasdaq 10,000 before this all comes crashing down to reality…?

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Markets In Turmoil: Gold & Oil Spike As Stocks, Bond Yields Plunge After Iran Attack

Just when you thought it was safe to buy the most expensive, most complacent stock market rally in the world…

Iran begins retaliation against America’s killing of Soleimani…

Dow futures are down over 400 points

 

Gold has soared above $1600…

And WTI has erupted above $65…

Treasury yields are plunging…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is bid…

Source: Bloomberg

 

And VIX futures are exploding higher…

Time to get on the phone!

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

S&P Soars To Record High After Trump Speech; VIX, Oil, & Gold Plunge

And just like that,it never happened!

The S&P 500 just broke to a new record high…

VIX has crashed back to a 12 handle (VIX futures a 13 handle after nearing 18 overnight)…

Dow futures are up over 600 points from overnight lows…

And WTI Crude is back below Soleimani levels…

As gold gives back its sanctuary flow gains…

The invincible market strikes again.

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Frustrated Democrats Push Pelosi To Break Impeachment Impasse

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is facing pressure from frustrated Senate Democrats to end the ongoing impeachment standoff with Senate Republicans, as it’s clear Majority Leader Mitch McConnell isn’t going to acquiesce to her demands to hash out terms for the upcoming impeachment trial, according to Bloomberg.

“If we’re going to do it, she should send them over. I don’t see what good delay does,” said California Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein – who also told Politico “The longer it goes on the less urgent it becomes.”

So if it’s serious and urgent, send them over. If it isn’t, don’t send it over.

 

Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) wants to start the trial immediately.

“My expectation is that we’ll be able to start this trial next week,” he said, adding “The leverage over Republicans exists in the votes we take inside the trial.”

Several other Senate Democrats also showed their impatience with the Democratic leaders’ current strategy. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Wednesday morning that Democrats “should move on” and turn the articles to the Senate and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said he’s “ready” for the trial to start.

We need to get folks to testify and we need more information … but nonetheless I’m ready,” Tester said. “I don’t know what leverage we have. It looks like the cake is already baked.”

“I respect the fact that she is concerned about the fact about whether or not there will be a fair trial. But I do think it is time to get on with it,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). –Politico

And according to Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT), the Senate will get the impeachment articles from Pelosi “sooner rather than later.”

That said, Pelosi continues to dig in.

In a closed-door meeting with fellow House Democrats Wednesday, Pelosi gave no hint that she was ready to set a timeline for sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate, according to lawmakers.

“We are waiting to see what the terms are,” Pelosi said afterward. She said she wants McConnell to release a resolution setting out the Senate rules for the trial before she takes the next step. “Then we’ll be able to name our managers. But we can’t do it until we see the arena they’re going into.” –Bloomberg

McConnell – who has promised a speedy acquittal of Trump – has all but told Pelosi to pound sand, saying in a Wednesday speech on the Senate floor: “There will no haggling with the House over Senate procedure,” adding “We will not cede our authority to try this impeachment.”

McConnell, who wants to engineer a quick acquittal of the president, in effect declared victory Tuesday when he announced after meeting with GOP senators that there are enough votes among Republicans to set the terms for the impeachment trial without Democratic support.

The rules, he said, would be similar to those used for then-President Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial 21 years ago. That would set up about two weeks for arguments by House managers and Trump’s defense, as well as senators’ questions, before addressing the thorny issue of whether to end the trial without any fresh documents or witnesses. Both sides could then call for more testimony but would need 51 senators to agree.

McConnell said the Clinton precedent doesn’t guarantee witnesses will testify, but it also doesn’t preclude it. Still, the majority leader would be able to pressure GOP senators to stand firm against calling witnesses. –Bloomberg

Pelosi, meanwhile, is arguing that Trump’s impeachment is fundamentally different than Clinton’s because the latter was based on the findings of an independent counsel and a grand jury which had testimony from the former president.

“All of the work that was done leading up to impeachment of Clinton was so dramatically different that there is not really an apples to apples comparison,” said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI).

Whether that’s true or not, Mitch ain’t budging.

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

China won’t hike grain import quotas for U.S. trade deal: Caixin

The report underlines China’s desire to protect its farmers at a time when it is under pressure to buy billions of dollars more of U.S. agricultural goods to calm a prolonged trade war, although its grain imports have been well below quota levels in recent years.  Traders and analysts said the announcement appeared to be aimed at local concerns as Beijing gears up to buy more U.S. agricultural goods…

    “China will be facing a tough balancing act of trying to satisfy the U.S. demands for large agriculture purchases, while also not hurting the rural population…

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1Z608A?__twitter_impression=true

If China does NOT increase its buying of US agriculture goods, the Phase-1 deal is in jeopardy – and it makes Trump look very bad.

Repo Panic Returns as Fed Injects $99BN in Liquidity, Including First Oversubscribed Term Repo in Three Weeks   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/repo-remains-paralyzed-fed-announces-first-oversubscribed-term-repo-mid-december

In other words, there is something far worse than yearend funding pressure in the market.

Six B-52 bombers heading to Indian Ocean island amid Iran tensions, report says

https://www.stripes.com/six-b-52-bombers-heading-to-indian-ocean-island-amid-iran-tensions-report-says-1.613744#.XhPyB1GHSD8.twitter

‘We’re going to war, bro’: Fort Bragg’s 82nd Airborne deploys to the Middle East

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-usa-fort-bragg/were-going-to-war-bro-fort-braggs-82nd-airborne-deploys-to-the-middle-east-idUSKBN1Z6

Trump Slams Democrats, Media for Describing Terrorist Soleimani as “Wonderful Human Being”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-slams-democrats-media-describing-terrorist-soleimani-wonderful-human-being

CNN: John Kerry: Some sanctions relief money for Iran will go to terrorism  January 21, 2016

“I think that some of it will end up in the hands of the IRGC or other entities, some of which are labeled terrorists,” he said in the interview in Davos, referring to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. “You know, to some degree, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that every component of that can be prevented.”… [The MSM and Dems were okay with this?]

https://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/john-kerry-money-iran-sanctions-terrorism/index.html

 

Hillary Clinton April 21, 2008: “If I am the President, I would attack Iran.”

https://twitter.com/ROHLL5/status/1214599334215458816?s=09

 

@paulsperry_: Sen. Feinstein blocked dossier-related questioning of Glenn Simpson while her former staffer Dan Jones was funding Simpson’s ongoing post-election efforts to vindicate the debunked Hillary Clinton-funded dossier

“There are two ways to slide easily through life: to believe everything or to doubt everything; both ways save us from thinking.” – Alfred Korzybski, US logician & scientist (1879 – 1950)

end

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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