JAN 17/GOLD CLOSED UP $9.60 TO $1560.00//SILVER UP 12 CENTS TO $18.06//STRONG QUEUE JUMPING FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER//LEBANON CLOSE TO BANKRUPTCY: DOLLARS SCARCE AND HUGE AMOUNT OF DEBT DENOMINATED IN DOLLARS IS DUE//BALTIC DRY INDEX AT RECORD LOWS//TED BUTLER..YOUR WEEKEND READING//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1560.00 UP $9.60    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.06 UP 12 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

Gold :  $1557.50

 

silver:  $18.04

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  2/39

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,549.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/16/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/21/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 23
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8
661 C JP MORGAN 16 2
690 C ABN AMRO 20
737 C ADVANTAGE 5
905 C ADM 3 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 39 39
MONTH TO DATE: 2,579

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 39 NOTICE(S) FOR 3900 OZ (0.1213 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2579 NOTICES FOR 257,900 OZ  (8.02177 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

44 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 220,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 447 for  2,235,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8847 UP $128 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8890 UP 167

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1054 CONTRACTS FROM 236,474 DOWN TO 235,420 DESPITE OUR TINY 2 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  438 AND MAY: 0 AND DEC: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  438 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 438 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 438 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.190 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2.270     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 2 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 616 CONTRACTS. OR 3.08 MILLION OZ…..

JUDGING FROM THE STRENGTH IN GOLD (AND A MINOR LOSS IN SILVER) IT SEEMS THAT OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY SCARED ABOUT A LACK OF PHYSICAL. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING.  WE MUST WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW AND SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

15,747 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,747 CONTRACTS) OR 78.74 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1312 CONTRACTS OR 6.561 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  78.74 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.93% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          78.74   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 78.74 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1047, DESPITE THE TINY  2 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 438 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE LOST A GOOD SIZED  SIZED: 616 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 438 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1054 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.94 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.177 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 168% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 44 NOTICE(S) FOR  220,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 2,270,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5956 CONTRACTS TO 793,585 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 799,541 (SET JAN 16/2016)  AND ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS NEW  RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $3.00 IN PRICING  ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// / 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  STRONG SIZED 7644 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  5634 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 1793; JUNE. 217 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 793,484,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1688 CONTRACTS: 5956 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7,644 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 1688 CONTRACTS OR 168,800 OZ OR 5.25 TONNES.  THURSDAY WE HAD A  LOSS OF $3.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 5.25  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $3.00) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR GOOD GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (5.25 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 103,292 CONTRACTS OR 10,329,200 oz OR 321.28 TONNES (12 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8607 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 321.28 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 321.28/3550 x 100% TONNES =9.05% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     321.28  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 321.28 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5450 WITH THE   PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK THURSDAY($3.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7644 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7644 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 1688 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7644 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5956 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 6.824 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE  LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.00 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD UP 9.60 TODAY

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…

A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES

THIS IS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW FOR AN INCREASE IN GOLD DEPOSITS

 

 

 

 

 

JAN 17/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 879.49 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV…

 

JAN 17/INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.857 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1054 CONTRACTS from 236,474 DOWN TO 235,420 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 326

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  438:  AND MAY: 0; DEC: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 438 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1054  CONTRACTS TO THE 438 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 616 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.08 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 2.270 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 438 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.42 POINTS OR 0.05%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 173.38 POINTS OR 0.60%   /The Nikkei closed UP 173.38 POINTS OR 0.60%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .30%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8586 /Oil UP TO 58.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.78 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8586 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8614 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

CHINA/USA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)LEBANON

Lebanon in a mess.  It has a current account deficit of 25% of its GDP..and all of its USA dollars of inflow have evaporated.  They will default and no doubt we will see a bail in where depositors pay to save the banks. You can bet the farm for more rioting if that happens

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN

This author’s assessment on what is going to happen in Iraq/Iran  in the coming days

(Crooke/Strategic Culture Foundation)

iii)IRAN/USA

the Ayatollah slams Trump stating that he is a “clown”. He wants revenge for the killing of Soleimani
(zerohedge)

iii b)IRAN/USA

USA now admits that 11 Americans are being treated for concussion like injuries suffered in the missile attack
(zerohedge)

iv)IRAN/CANADA/AFGHANISTAN/UKRAINE/SWEDEN/UK

Let us see how Iran handles payments to victims for the shooting down on this Ukrainian plane.  Iran is already broke

(zerohedge)

v)TURKEY/LIBYA
The latest on the Libyan conflict
(courtesy SouthFront)

6.Global Issues

i)BALTIC DRY INDEX

Despite the trade deal, the pundits do not see any appreciable demand globally in shipping demand

(zerohedge)

ii)GLOBE/UN

Now the UN is warning of a slow growth in the global economy. The UN states that growth has plunged to its lowest level in a decade
(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)I am not sure of this:  Russia is not slowing down with their gold purchases

(Bloomberg)

ii)A very important read from Ted Butler.  Not too sure of his numbers.  We know how much JPMorgan has acquired in official vaults in the USA.  We do not know what they acquired in Europe or in non official vaults. Regardless of numbers, the crime of JPMorgan is there for you to see.

(Ted Butler/GATA)

iii)The Fed will now be lots of fun with the nomination of Judy Shelton to fill one of its vacancies

(zerohedge/gata)

iv) J Johnson’s comex commentary

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

University of Michigan Sentiment slips in early January as well as outlook

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)USA industrial production has suffered its worst year since 2015

(zerohedge)

ii)Housing starts soar due to cheap money

(zerohedge)

iii)

v) Swamp commentaries)

i)Now the Dept of Justice is beginning a 2nd probe into Comey’s history of leaking classified intelligence.

(zerohedge)

ii)Alan Dershowitz and Ken Starr has been added to Trump’s dream team

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY STRONG SIZED 5956 CONTRACTS TO 793,585 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR RECORD SET YESTERDAY: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $3.00 IN GOLD PRICING // THURSDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7644 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 5634′; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 793,  JUNE : 217 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7644 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED 1688 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7644 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5956 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $3.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED  1688 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  1688 CONTRACTS OR 168,800 OZ OR 5.25 TONNES.  

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  793,585 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 79.36 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,468 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,468/2200 OR 112.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 87 open interest left to be served upon, for a GAIN of 55 contracts.   We had 0 notices served up on yesterday so we surprisingly gained another 55 contracts or an additional 5500 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF 14,476 in contracts DOWN to 390,823.  

March LOST 36 contracts to stand at an open interest of, 1143.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 7,079 contacts up to 271,312 oi contracts.

We had 39 open interest notices served upon today for 3900 oz

the front month of February is not contracting enough (WITH RESPECT TO OI) and thus it seems we will have another strong amount of gold standing for delivery

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1054 CONTRACTS FROM 234,639 UP TO 235,420 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR  CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A  2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING/YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a GAIN of 48 contracts TO 51. We had 0 notices served on yesterday, so we gained 48 contracts or an additional 240,000 oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!! Our bankers have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a LOSS of 10 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  444.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 1374 contracts UP to 176,765

 

 

We, today, had 44 notice(s) filed for 220,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 287,652 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY302,550 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

JAN 17/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
39 notice(s)
 3900 OZ
(.1213 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
48 contracts
(4800 oz)
0.1493 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2579 notices
257,900 OZ
8.02177 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 2 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into

everybody else: 0

 

total deposits:  0  oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  0

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  ADDED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 16 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 39 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2579) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (87 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (39 x 100 oz per contract) equals 262,700 OZ OR 8.1710 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2579 x 100 oz)  + (87)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (39 x 100 oz )which equals 262,750 oz standing OR 8.1710 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED 55 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5500 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.017 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.1710 TONNES

 

total: 130,06 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 130,06  tonnes

 

Thus:

130.06 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 110.806 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.017 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,334,232.623 oz or  41.50 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 109,365.15 oz (34.017 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settle upon:  240,581.146 oz  ( 7.4668    TONNES)//
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  109,365.15  (34.017 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,699,474.809 oz 270.590 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 17/2020
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 631,667.426 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
608,525.420 oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
44
CONTRACT(S)
(220,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
7 contracts
 35,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  447 contracts

2,235,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into CNT: 608,525.420  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  608,525.420  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

i) Out of CNT: 631,667.426 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 631,667.426   oz

We had 2 adjustment:

i) out of BNS:  265,657.000 ??? oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of BNS

ii) Out of Brinks: 15,453.870 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks

 

 

total dealer silver:  84.966 million

total dealer + customer silver:  319.420 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 44 contract(s) FOR 220,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 447 x 5,000 oz =2,235,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (51) and the number of notices served upon today 44 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 447 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (51- number of notices served upon today (44) x 5000 oz equals 2,270,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 48 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 245,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 44 notice(s) filed for 220,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  65,993 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 60,871 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 60,871 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 3904 million  OZ   43.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.28% ((JAN 17/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.28% to NAV (JAN 17/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.28%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.51 TRADING 15.02///DISCOUNT  3,13

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

 

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JAN 17/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 879.49 tonnes

*IN LAST 744 TRADING DAYS: 57.96 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 644 TRADING DAYS: A NET 109.09. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 17.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

354.437 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.75/ and libor 6 month duration 1.84

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .09

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.78%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.93

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.15

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

World’s Largest Hedge Fund Sees Gold Rising 30% To $2,000

◆ Bridgewater’s co-chief investment officer Greg Jensen told the Financial Times that gold prices could rally to $2,000 an ounce.

 The manager from the world’s biggest hedge fund cited increased income inequality in the U.S. and rising tensions with China and Iran as uncertainties that will prompt more safe-haven buying.

 Jensen also believes the Federal Reserve would let inflation run hot for a while, which also creates an environment for higher gold prices.

 Spot gold now trades at $1,551.40 per ounce, after crossing the $1,600 mark and hitting a seven-year high last week

FT via CNBC

Gold prices, which briefly topped $1,600 last week, could rally to $2,000 an ounce amid heightened political risks, Bridgewater’s co-chief investment officer Greg Jensen told the Financial Times Wednesday.

The manager from the world’s biggest hedge fund cited increased income inequality in the U.S. and rising tensions with China and Iran as uncertainties ahead that will prompt more safe-haven buying. Bridgewater manages $160 billion in assets, more than any other hedge fund.

“There is so much boiling conflict,” Jensen told the paper. “People should be prepared for a much wider range of potentially more volatile set of circumstances than we are mostly accustomed to.”

Jensen also believes the Federal Reserve would let inflation run hot for a while, which also creates an environment for higher gold prices as investors tend to use the precious metal as a hedge against inflationary forces.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,551.40 per ounce on Wednesday, after crossing the $1,600 mark and hitting a seven-year high last week. The U.S.-China trade war and the Middle East unrest drove investors to more conservative investments for its stability during times of tumult, pushing gold prices higher.

Earlier last year, founder of Bridgewater Ray Dalio advocated putting money into gold as he saw a “paradigm shift” in investing due to global central banks’ expected moves to an easier monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for three times last year to combat a slowing economy. Jensen said it’s possible the central bank could slash rates to zero this year to avoid a recession and disinflationary pressures.

Bridgewater is not alone in recommending gold bullion. DoubleLine CEO, Jeffrey Gundlach also said last year he was a buyer of gold on expectations that the dollar would weaken.



GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

16-Jan-20 1555.20 1554.55, 1190.97 1190.94 & 1393.61 1394.90
15-Jan-20 1551.90 1549.00, 1194.65 1189.01 & 1394.23 1389.14
14-Jan-20 1544.95 1545.10, 1190.69 1188.49 & 1387.83 1389.35
13-Jan-20 1550.35 1549.90, 1194.54 1192.96 & 1394.85 1393.52
10-Jan-20 1548.80 1553.60, 1185.45 1189.28 & 1395.78 1399.64
09-Jan-20 1547.85 1550.75, 1186.89 1188.49 & 1393.99 1396.14
08-Jan-20 1582.85 1571.95, 1206.13 1197.35 & 1421.87 1412.87
07-Jan-20 1566.50 1567.85, 1190.85 1197.05 & 1402.80 1406.52
06-Jan-20 1576.85 1573.10, 1198.09 1197.29 & 1408.44 1406.51

Is Your Gold and Silver Bullion S.A.F.E. ?
Segregated, Actionable, Flexible and what are the total Expenses?

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

I am not sure of this:  Russia is not slowing down with their gold purchases

(Bloomberg)

 

Russia’s $40 billion gold-buying binge is slowing down

 Section: 

Or maybe just its gold-acquisition reporting is slowing down.

* * *

By Yuliya Fedorinova and Andrey Biryukov
Bloomberg News
Thursday, January 16, 2020

Russia, the world’s biggest buyer of gold, is losing interest in the precious metal.

After spending an estimated $40 billion on gold in the past five years, the central bank is starting to rein in spending. It bought 149 tons of gold in the first 11 months of 2019, 44% less than the year before. Annual purchases are expected to be the lowest in six years.

… 

Analysts say that Russia’s central bank has maxed out the proportion of gold it wants to keep in reserve. They also view the threat of U.S. sanctions and the need for a buffer against economic shocks diminishing as issues like the annexation of Crimea, election interference, and the poisoning of a former Russian spy on British soil fade from public conversation.

To be sure, even at these lower levels Russia is still buying a lot of gold and ranks at the top of the biggest purchasers. The country owns 2,262 tons of the precious metal, worth $106 billion, and stores some in vaults at the central bank in Moscow. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-16/russia-s-40-billion-g…

* * *

Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine

Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.

Here’s what the bottles look like:

http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg

Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:

http://www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg

GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?

To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mining Investment Asia
InterContinental Hotel, Singapore
Tuesday-Thursday, March 17-19, 2020
https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Conrad Hotel, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Wednesday, March 31-April 1, 2020
https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

This is very troublesome:  The Fed is now considering bailing out hedge funds because of their illiquidity.  Many investors are trying to cash out but firms are blocking redemptions. Many of these hedge funds are short gold and silver..

(Pam and Russ Martens//Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: New York Fed considers becoming sugar daddy to hedge funds as their distress grows

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, January 16, 2020

It’s apparently not enough of a billionaire subsidy for the U.S. Treasury’s Internal Revenue Service to give a monster tax break to hedge fund titans by allowing them to pay Federal taxes on the basis of “carried interest,” meaning that they have a special loophole to pay a lower tax rate than many school teachers, nurses, and plumbers.

Now, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal, the Federal Reserve is actually considering opening its super-cheap repo loan money spigot to hedge funds.

It doesn’t get any crazier than this.

Morphing from a central bank mandated to set monetary policy on the basis of maximum employment and stable prices, to the lender of last resort to the criminally-charged trading houses on Wall Street and now, potentially, to the insider-trading/”Big Short” hedge funds, the New York Fed has totally lost its way if not its mind. (Unless, as many suspect, the New York Fed is simply the poorly-disguised money puppet of the 1 percent.)

The talk of a hedge fund bailout comes at a time when multiple hedge funds and illiquid mutual funds have locked their gates, preventing investors from getting back their money. It also comes after a year of giant net withdrawals from hedge funds. Equally noteworthy, in the past two years more than 1,200 hedge funds have shut down, according to Hedge Fund Research. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/new-york-fed-considering-becomi

New York Fed Considering Becoming Sugar Daddy to Hedge Funds as their Distress Grows

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 16, 2020

t’s apparently not enough of a billionaire subsidy for the U.S. Treasury’s Internal Revenue Service to give a monster tax break to hedge fund titans by allowing them to pay Federal taxes on the basis of “carried interest,” meaning that they have a special loophole to pay a lower tax rate than many school teachers, nurses and plumbers. Now, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal, the Federal Reserve is actually considering opening its super-cheap repo loan money spigot to hedge funds. It doesn’t get any crazier than this.

Morphing from a central bank mandated to set monetary policy on the basis of maximum employment and stable prices, to the lender-of-last-resort to the criminally-charged trading houses on Wall Street and now, potentially, to the insider-trading/Big Short hedge funds, the New York Fed has totally lost its way if not its mind. (Unless, as many suspect, the New York Fed is simply the poorly-disguised money puppet of the one percent.)

The talk of a hedge fund bailout comes at a time when multiple hedge funds and illiquid mutual funds have locked their gates, preventing investors from getting back their money. It also comes after a year of giant net withdrawals from hedge funds. Equally noteworthy, in the past two years over 1200 hedge funds have shut down according to Hedge Fund Research.

According to a report at eVestment which tracks hedge fund flows, investors pulled $29.37 billion from hedge funds in the third quarter of last year, bringing the total net outflows through the third quarter to an eyebrow-raising $76.86 billion. eVestment subsequently reported that another $6.20 billion was pulled in October, bringing the year-to-date total to $83.06 billion.

Those outflows come on the heels of multiple hedge funds suspending withdrawals by investors. In the month of December 2019, York Capital Management and Southpaw Asset Management set up gates that prevent clients from getting all of the money they have requested to withdraw. The Wall Street Journal’s Juliet Chung reported as follows two days before Christmas:

“York, founded by Milwaukee Bucks co-owner Jamie Dinan, told clients in a letter Thursday it was suspending redemptions from its nearly $2 billion Credit Opportunities fund for the year-end period and that it planned to start unwinding the fund…The $1.2 billion Greenwich, Conn.-based Southpaw told clients in a letter earlier last week it plans to return 55% of the money they requested back for year-end. That figure doesn’t include money investors requested that the firm is tying up in a so-called ‘side pocket.’ ”

That scary news followed an equally troubling missive earlier in the year. On June 3 the $4.7 billion Woodford Equity Income Fund in the U.K. froze withdrawals by investors. The fund was slated to open for withdrawals in December but the U.K. regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), announced in October that the fund will not reopen and will be liquidated instead. The FCA has an ongoing investigation into the matter. The problem, according to the FCA, is that the fund was holding illiquid and hard to price assets.

On December 4, the U.K. based M&G Property Portfolio announced it would suspend dealings, stating that it could not meet redemptions due to difficulty in selling commercial property. Investors had pulled an estimated $1.2 billion from the fund in the first 10 months of last year.

Just yesterday, the Korean hedge fund manager, Lime Asset Management, announced that it was suspending withdrawals from its various hedge funds that would impact $1.7 billion in assets. The hedge fund manager had reported earlier last year that it was halting withdrawals on $700 million of funds. The problem at Lime is also reported to be illiquid assets.

Supporting the idea that a spike in hedge fund withdrawals is partly responsible for the Fed restoring its cash feeding tube to Wall Street, the Financial Times reported on October 1 that the CFO of a “top-10 US bank” told it that “We have plenty of liquidity. We are just choosing not to lend it out overnight to hedge funds.”

END
A very important read from Ted Butler.  Not too sure of his numbers.  We know how much JPMorgan has acquired in official vaults in the USA.  We do not know what they acquired in Europe or in non official vaults. Regardless of numbers, the crime of JPMorgan is there for you to see.
(Ted Butler/GATA)

Ted Butler: The genius of JPMorganChase

 Section: 

By Ted Butler
Thursday, January 16, 2020

This week JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, reported record earnings of $8.5 billion for the fourth quarter and roughly $35 billion for the full year. These are net profits, after all expenses and costs are subtracted from gross revenues. It is no understatement to call JPMorgan a profit-generating machine.

My interest in the bank, of course, comes from the perspective of gold and silver. The connection is that JPMorgan is the largest player, by far, in all aspects of gold and silver. Always among the top players in the gold and silver space for decades, what pushed JPMorgan to the very top was its takeover of Bear Stearns in 2008 which resulted in JPM taking the place of Bear as the largest short seller in COMEX gold and silver futures.

… 

It is said that necessity is the mother of invention and I confer on JPMorgan the title of genius for its solution to a serious problem it found itself in early in 2011 when silver ran up to near $50 while the bank was heavily short and holding open losses of close to $3 billion.

While JPMorgan did succeed in crushing the price starting on May 1 of that year and eliminating its large open losses, it knew it needed a permanent solution to what would be a recurring problem in the future, namely, how to mitigate against future run ups in the price of silver (and gold), since it intended on continuing to be the largest short in COMEX futures. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

http://silverseek.com/commentary/genius-jpmorgan-17823

The Genius of JPMorgan

|

January 16, 2020 – 12:48pm

Yesterday, JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the US, reported record earnings of $8.5 billion for the fourth quarter and roughly $35 billion for the full year. These are net profits, after all expenses and costs are subtracted from gross revenues. It is no understatement to call JPMorgan a profit-generating machine.

My interest in the bank, of course, comes from the perspective of gold and silver. The connection is that JPMorgan is the largest player, by far, in all aspects of gold and silver. Always among the top players in the gold and silver space for decades, what pushed JPMorgan to the very top was its takeover of Bear Stearns in 2008 which resulted in JPM taking the place of Bear as the largest short seller in COMEX gold and silver futures.

It is said that necessity is the mother of invention and I confer on JPMorgan the title of genius for its solution to a serious problem it found itself in early in 2011 when silver ran up to near $50 while the bank was heavily short and holding open losses of close to $3 billion. While JPMorgan did succeed in crushing the price starting on May 1 of that year and eliminating its large open losses, it knew it needed a permanent solution to what would be a recurring problem in the future, namely, how to mitigate against future run ups in the price of silver (and gold), since it intended on continuing to be the largest short in COMEX futures.

That JPMorgan’s solution was simple in no way detracts from it being termed genius. In hindsight, nearly 9 years after being conceived and implemented, JPM’s solution is only more genius. Since the bank was the largest short seller in the largest paper (derivatives) precious metals market in the world, the COMEX, it was not possible for JPMorgan to buy other paper contracts on the COMEX or elsewhere to offset its short paper positions. Such paper derivatives buying would cancel out each other and immediately eliminate JPM’s role as largest COMEX short seller and with that elimination end the bank’s leading role and influence on price. Besides, any attempt by JPMorgan to buy large quantities of COMEX contracts would immediately show up in Commitment of Traders (COT) and Bank Participation reports. (I would remind you that I first discovered JPMorgan’s leading role in COMEX dealings as a result of the Bank Participation report of August 2008).

Faced with the insurmountable obstacle that buying paper contracts to offset its dominating and price-controlling paper short position was not possible, JPMorgan came up with the perfect and only solution to protect itself from future run ups in silver and gold prices – it decided, in 2011, to buy real metal to offset its paper short positions. Normally, it is assumed that those holding or dealing in physical metals use the paper futures market to hedge or offset the risks of price change by selling futures and other derivatives contracts against physical holdings.

What made JPMorgan’s solution so genius was that it simply reversed that same equation and bought physical silver and gold against what was a preexisting paper short position. It certainly didn’t hurt that the COMEX futures market had become so large over the years that paper contract positioning had become the sole price influence and such positioning dictated prices to the real physical world of gold and silver. If COMEX futures positioning hadn’t become the main price influence for gold and silver – the futures market tail that wagged the physical market dog – JPMorgan’s genius solution would not have been possible.

But more observers than ever recognize the price dominance of COMEX futures positioning; it’s just that JPMorgan recognized it before anyone else and, most importantly, put that advanced knowledge into actual practice by buying more physical silver and gold over the now-near nine years since early 2011 than anyone in history. It took me a couple of years to discover what JPMorgan was up to and to this day there are those who still refuse to see what JPM has accomplished, namely, using its control of price by being the largest COMEX short seller to accumulate a massive hoard of physical silver and gold on the cheap. Truly, JPMorgan has come to master both the physical and paper markets in gold and silver

My latest estimate of what JPMorgan has acquired is 900 million oz of physical silver (at an average price of $18 per ounce) and 25 million oz of physical gold (at an average price of $1200). In dollar terms, JPM’s total acquisition cost is $46 billion for the silver and gold combined. That may seem like way too much money to be spent on physical precious metals, but in the case of JPMorgan, the cost represents little more than a year and a quarter of reported profits. Plus, the physical metals accumulation took nearly nine years, not 15 months.

Perhaps a better way of looking at it would be to consider the implausibility of JPMorgan acquiring an equivalent paper long position on the COMEX. 900 million oz of silver is the equivalent of 180,000 COMEX silver contracts and 25 million oz of gold is the equivalent of 250,000 COMEX gold contracts. It would be impossible for JPMorgan, or anyone else, to acquire that many COMEX contracts without notice or great impact on price. Impossible.

It would also be impossible for any one entity to acquire 25 million oz of physical gold in a year without notice or effect on price, since that would represent 25% of total world annual mine production. In the case of silver, it’s even more preposterous to imagine anyone being able to buy 900 million oz in a year since that would represent more than 100% of silver annual world mine production. But by stretching that over 9 years makes the acquisition all the more feasible – 3% of annual gold production and 10% of silver annual production – a snap for an entity as well-funded and capable as JPMorgan.

Quite deliberately, I have failed to this point to label JPMorgan as the criminal genius that I have in the past, so as not to detract in any way from what the bank has succeeded in doing in its physical silver and gold accumulation and what it portends for future price levels. I suppose it would be convenient to point to the US Justice Department’s labelling of JPM’s precious metals desk as a “criminal enterprise” in which RICO statutes have been invoked, but I’ve often referred to JPMorgan as criminal in its precious metals dealings long before the DOJ came along. Besides, the DOJ, up until now seems to have a specific focus on spoofing, something I consider peripheral to what JPM has done.

My main justification for accusing JPMorgan of criminal behavior in gold and silver dealings is the fact that it accumulated its massive physical metal holdings while being the largest COMEX short seller for nearly 9 years. It wouldn’t matter if I was the only person in the world to hold that was wrong and criminal – I know it’s wrong and criminal. Besides, I send everything I allege to JPMorgan and the regulators and have yet to hear any objection, threat or denial.

So what does JPMorgan’s magnificent and criminally genius solution of the accumulation of physical metal as an offset to its paper short position mean for future price? Had JPMorgan stopped accumulating physical silver at the 200 million oz equivalent level of its past peak COMEX short position levels and stopped at the 7.5 to 10 million oz levels in gold that reflected its past peak gold COMEX short positions, I would have concluded it would be super-bullish for future prices. But seeing how JPMorgan has vastly exceeded any possible levels of what it had been short on the COMEX in silver and gold dealings, super-bullish is woefully inadequate to express how bullish the situation has become.

The profit-generating machine that is JPMorgan has assembled the largest privately-held position in physical silver and gold in history. It is unreasonable to conclude it did so for reasons unrelated to profit. Normally, I would say that it’s just a matter of time before JPMorgan decided to ring the cash register, but even that statement is inadequate to describe what has occurred to date. So skillful and persistent as JPMorgan has been in its accumulation of physical silver and gold that it is already close to $9 billion ahead on its gold holdings (25 million oz times $350+). And if gold climbs another 30% to $2000, as just suggested by Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, JPMorgan’s total profit on its 25 million oz physical long position will amount to $20 billion – and that excludes silver. But wait – there’s more.

For the past nearly two years, I have been writing of a coming double cross by JPMorgan of the other large COMEX commercial short sellers. In actuality, the double cross is already in play and continuing, but that doesn’t diminish in the slightest that there is likely much more damage to befall the big commercial shorts at the hands of JPMorgan. Recently, I have been writing about the record open losses of several billions of dollars that have been accruing to the 7 biggest COMEX shorts, while at the same time pointing out that JPMorgan is already ahead by $9 billion on its physical gold holdings. If that is not clear proof of an ongoing and highly successful double cross, then I don’t what is.

Finally, the chance of a regulatory intervention by either the DOJ or CFTC seems increasingly remote, also attesting to the power of JPMorgan. Both regulators seem extremely intent on avoiding any issue other than spoofing, making a market solution the only solution possible. After proclaiming for 35 years that no price manipulation existed in silver, the CFTC can’t possibly assert now that JPMorgan was up to no good by being the biggest paper short seller and largest physical accumulator. Ditto the DOJ, which would never do anything to undermine the largest and most systemically important bank in the nation. Let’s face it, JPMorgan holds all the get out of jail cards it needs to be left alone.

The combination of JPMorgan being ideally positioned for an historic surge in the price of gold and silver and the other big shorts being as poorly positioned as is possible is not a work of fiction but of fact, based upon public data published by the CFTC. This is what sets the stage for a dramatic price rise in gold and silver. Should Bridgewater Associates be proven correct about gold surging to $2000, the additional damage to the big shorts is almost incalculable.

That is not to say that the big COMEX shorts should be expected to roll over and give up without a fight and the price weakness on Monday and Tuesday is clear evidence of that. For those paying close attention, the price weakness had all the earmarks of being deliberately created by the big shorts, based upon the timing of the selloffs (coming when trading volume and liquidity were at their lowest). But the old price-rigging games seem to have lost much of their effectiveness, based upon the limited amount of managed money selling that has resulted over the past few months. I still would imagine those new longs that have come into the market from late-December onward might be at risk of selling by the deliberate downward rigging of prices, but even there, I’m not entirely convinced.

All we can do is monitor price actions and future COT reports to determine which it will be, namely, the big shorts succeeding in not only jigging prices lower, but getting sufficient numbers of managed money traders to sell or completely failing to do so. It’s also important to recognize the key role that JPMorgan plays in determining the outcome.

As far as what the COT report will indicate on Friday, I’m going to once again refrain from predictions and concentrate on what the report may reveal. The reporting week that ended yesterday covered one of the most tumultuous trading weeks in memory, seeing as it started with last Wednesday night’s price explosion on the Iranian missile attack, to be followed by fairly steady selling through yesterday’s close. Trading volume was heavy, but total open interest only increased by 11,000 contracts in gold and was flat in silver. I am unsure what impact spreads may have had in gold. What I will be looking (and hoping) for is whether the big commercial shorts continued to close out short positions, as was evident in the prior COT report.

As far as the open losses accruing to the 7 big shorts in COMEX gold and silver, the price weakness on Monday and Tuesday brought some relief, but today’s rally blunted much of the improvement enjoyed by the big shorts. At publication time, gold was still lower from Friday’s late close by around $4 and silver was lower by five cents or so. This would indicate the big shorts reduced their total open and unrealized losses by around $150 million from Friday, meaning to around $4.9 billion, still higher by a billion dollars from the record yearend mark to market loss of $3.8 billion. There’s no way the top financial people at the institutions involved are not monitoring this on a daily or more frequent basis.

At this point, it would be hard to imagine any of the chief financial officers and risk officials at the organizations holding the largest COMEX gold and silver short positions not be well-aware of the impact, both to date and potentially to come, of the financial scoreboard to which I refer. But what to do about the open losses is no simple matter. I’m sure all are now aware of the predicament in which they are in and how the temptation to just rush and aggressively closeout the short positions would result in a price surge that will only magnify the losses. But the longer they delay and resist buying back short positions may just delay and amplify the losses in the end. I certainly don’t feel sorry for the financial organizations holding big short positions in the least, as their predicament seems almost biblical in scope. After sowing manipulation for decades, they will surely reap a bitter harvest. All excepting the criminal geniuses at JPMorgan, to be sure.

Ted Butler 

END

Trump to nominate a critic and an insider to Federal Reserve

 Section: 

By Jeanna Smialek
The New York Times
Thursday, January 16, 2020

WASHINGTON — President Trump said today he would formally nominate Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, about six months after Mr. Trump said he intended to add the two to the central bank.

Ms. Shelton, a critic of the Fed who has long supported backing the dollar with gold or some other anchor, has spent the intervening time tweeting her support of Mr. Trump’s administration and its policies. Mr. Waller, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, has kept out of the spotlight.

Ms. Shelton and Mr. Waller will now be vetted by the Senate Banking Committee and must be confirmed by the Senate. If that happens, the president will have nearly a full suite of his own picks at the Fed board. He will have nominated six of the seven sitting governors. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/business/economy/trump-nominee-federa..

iii) Other physical stories:

The Fed will now be lots of fun with the nomination of Judy Shelton to fill one of its vacancies

(zerohedge/gata)

Trump Nominates Chris Waller, Judy Shelton To Fill Fed Vacancies

President Trump intends to nominate Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton to fill the two vacant posts on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, according to a White House memo released to the press Thursday evening.

Both have been rumored to be candidates for the two open seats, with rumors about Shelton’s candidacy inspiring an intense discussion over her reputation as a “gold bug” and opponent of liberal central bank monetary policies. In the past, she has advocated a return to the gold standard. She currently serves as the US director for the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development.

Catherine Rampell

@crampell

and there it is. Trump nominates Shelton and Waller to Fed

View image on Twitter

Waller is currently the head of research at the St. Louis Fed, and a much less controversial pick. He was purportedly approached by the administration about filling the seat back in June.

Trump’s picks to fill the vacancies on the Fed board have been enmeshed in controversy since last year, when Trump nominated Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the fill the posts, only to withdraw them in the face of controversy.

Waller (left), Shelton (right)

Just yesterday, President Trump intimated during ad libbed remarks at his trade-deal press conference that he wishes he had nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed instead of Jay Powell, whom Trump has mercilessly bashed for having the audacity to raise interest rates.

It’s possible that Trump following through with nominating Shelton – who was rumored to be a top pick for one of the empty Fed governor seats as early as last July – might spook markets, given her longtime opposition to the type of MMT-lite monetary policy that President Trump favors. Though we imagine Trump wouldn’t nominate her unless she swears to uphold his vision for monetary policy.

Both picks must still be confirmed by the Senate.

Then again, if the price action from today and yesterday is any guide, there’s almost nothing that can shake the market’s singular focus on trade-deal optimism.

end
Kevin to me:
This is where the Fed QE 4 is going to

Kevin Wallien

7:06 AM (42 minutes ago)

to me
4. Consolidated Statement of Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks
Tot. Fed Assets $4.175T (+26.306B)

4. Consolidated Statement of Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks (continued)

Other deposits held by depository institutions at Fed $1.673T (+$16.7T)

The difference between the two equals the
amount of QE that was put to use by banks
in the fiat system of debt creation and asset
purchase aka equities and stock buybacks: $9.6B base then re-hypothecated
at least 9 fold.

Kevin Wallien

7:31 AM (17 minutes ago)

to me
Not hard to see where the banks are getting
their seed money to add to paper shorts
on Comex and LBMA ETF which totaled
some $8.0B in notional (5.5m oz).
That still leaves quite a bit to cover
margin calls on the existing losses on shorts
on Comex and LBMA over the last $300 move
up.
With an astronomic increase in OI and ETF, it is
a very good sign that gold isn’t being killed like in year
2013.
Equities don’t look like they have more than
3% left on the upside.
end
J Johnson’s latest commentary on the Comex data
(courtesy J Johnson)
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8586/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8614   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 1.42 POINTS OR 0.05%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 173.38 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 173.38 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.46/Euro FALLS TO 1.1111

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.12/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.72 and Brent: 64.78

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.22%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.38% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.45%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.42

3k Gold at $1560.25 silver at: 18.13   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 22/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.12 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9663 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0737 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.22%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.81% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.27%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8796..

And Another All Time High For World Stocks

With the Fed flooding the market with hundreds of billions of excess liquidity, it’s hardly a surprise that every single day is a new all time high. In fact, writing these daily updates is getting downright boring.

 

One day after the US stock market exploded higher in the last hour of trading, melting up before our eyes on no news, world shares followed apace rising to record highs on Friday, with markets across the globe a sea of green…

…supported by Chinese data that showed GDP slumping to just 6.1%, a fresh 29 year low, suggested the world’s second-biggest economy was stabilizing. As reported last night, China’s economy grew 6% between October and December last year. Anemic domestic demand and the trade war with the United States led to growth of 6.1% in 2019, the slowest in 29 years. However, the data also reinforced recent signs of an improvement in Chinese business confidence as trade tensions eased after Beijing and Washington signed an initial deal on Wednesday to defuse their tariff war.

China’s industrial production “is quite telling, because more broadly it speaks to the bottoming out in the global industrial-production cycle, which we’ve been looking for and the market’s been looking for for the last six to nine months,” John Woods, chief investment officer for the Asia Pacific at Credit Suisse, told Bloomberg TV in Hong Kong. This suggests “the global economy is on a recovering path.”

The continuing rebound in Chinese data, along with easing trade tensions with the United States, sent the MSCI world equity index up 0.2% and further into record territory. The Chinese data fueled a rise in the Chinese yuan, which touch a six-month high of 6.8660 to the dollar.

And with China stable for now, investors turned their attention to improved growth prospects across the world. European shares gained 0.7% in early trade, with Frankfurt, Paris and London indexes up 0.5% to 0.7%. Emini S&P futures were also pointing up, continuing a virtually straight line levitation since the Iran escalation faded away, while upbeat earnings from Morgan Stanley, rising U.S. retail sales, a strong labor market and robust manufacturing data had helped to lift Wall Street to record highs. Google became the fourth US company to top a market value of more than $1 trillion, after its shares rose nearly 17% over the last three months.

“Investors that were last year buying risky assets rather defensively – not really removing their hedging – right now are deploying cash,” said Olivier Marciot, a portfolio manager at Unigestion. “A number of investors that were sitting on big piles of cash are starting reallocating. People are unloading cash positions into financial assets.” In other words, as we said over the weekend, everyone is going “all in” in a manic chase of performance, something observed just before every blow off top ends in tears.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index headed for its biggest gain in two weeks, with International Consolidated Airlines Group SA surging after removing a shareholdings limit, even as French Supermarket Casino slumped 12% after slashing its forecast for 2019 operating profit growth because of the damage from transport strikes in the fourth quarter.

Earlier in the session, Asian markets also rose chasing the US momentum and after the Chinese data, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gaining 0.4% and headed for a seven-week advance, which would be the longest winning streak in two years. China’s own blue-chip index ended just barely higher, down from an earlier rise of as much as 0.7% amid speculation of less stimulus. The index has rallied more than 8.5% since the beginning of December, fueled by hopes for improved trade relations with the United States. Shares in Australia and South Korea both rose, with Japan’s Nikkei climbing to a 15-month high while Japan’s Topix rose after two days of declines.

“This is all good news and positive for the China story,” said Daniel Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong.

Still, as Reuters notes, analysts say global equities may find it difficult to maintain momentum from their recent rally as optimism over the trade truce gives way to uncertainty over the next steps in trade talks. While the Phase 1 deal signed on Wednesday may defuse the 18-month trade row, analysts said it was unlikely to ease broader friction between the two countries. Most of the tariffs imposed during the dispute remain in place and a number of issues that sparked the conflict are still unresolved.

“The challenge from here is how long we can maintain these improvements,” said Steven Daghlian, market analyst at CommSec in Sydney.

In FX, the dollar held steady, reaching eight-month highs against the yen boosted by encouraging data from the United States on Thursday, before trimming its advance to 0.09% to 110.24, while the pound slumped after U.K. retail sales unexpectedly extended their worst run on record, increasing the probability of a Bank of England interest-rate cut later this month

Most major currencies were contained within tight ranges as large option expiries were in focus

In rates, the longest-dated Treasuries dipped and the U.S. yield curve steepened modestly after the Treasury said it would start issuing 20-year bonds in the first half of 2020 while German bonds were steady; the Italian bond curve bull flattened after Italy’s constitutional court rejected Matteo Salvini’s demand for a referendum on introducing a British-style first-past-the-post electoral system. Elsewhere, the yield on Taiwanese government debt fell to a record intraday low as insurers roared back into the market.

In commodities, Oil edged higher alongside gold. Emerging-market equities also climbed, on course for a seventh week of gains.

Earnings season ramps up next week with the likes of Procter & Gamble and Intel reporting. Friday’s economic data include JOLTS job openings, University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Schlumberger and State Street are due to publish results.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,325.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 423.31
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 174.43
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 572.52
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 24,041.26
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,735.44
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 29,056.42
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.05% to 3,075.50
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 41,973.36
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,064.13
  • Kospi up 0.1% to 2,250.57
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.218%
  • Euro down 0.08% to $1.1128
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.5 bps to 1.265%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 0.45%
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $65.07/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,554.69
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.38

Top Overnight News

  • The U.S. Treasury will start issuing 20-year bonds in the first half of 2020, expanding its roster of securities as the government seeks ways to fund a ballooning deficit
  • China’s economy stabilized last quarter, with the first acceleration in investment since June signaling that a firmer recovery could be underway. Industrial output rose 6.9% in December from the same period the previous year, versus the median forecast of 5.9% China’s economy displayed greater-than-expected strength in December, handing Beijing vindication of its new- found moderation in economic stimulus and suggesting the approach will continue through 2020
  • President Donald Trump plans to nominate Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller to join the Federal Reserve, the White House said. The two economists have widely different backgrounds, but their policy comments suggest they’d be inclined to be open to Trump’s calls for easier monetary policy.
  • The European Union’s new trade chief pulled no punches on an inaugural visit to Washington, saying President Trump’s tariff threats amount to short-sighted electioneering and warning him about widespread economic damage from protectionism
  • Oil held its biggest gain in almost two weeks on optimism a more conciliatory approach on trade from the U.S. will help revive growth, but was still headed for a weekly drop amid persistent demand concerns.
  • The White House budget office violated federal law when it withheld about $214 million appropriated by Congress to the Defense Department for security aid to Ukraine, an independent congressional watchdog agency concluded.
  • European Central Bank watchers are virtually convinced President Christine Lagarde will change the institution’s inflation goal for the first time in 17 years as she attempts to achieve the price stability that eluded her predecessor. Almost 90% of respondents in a Bloomberg survey predicted the ECB will officially alter its strategy to give equal weight to too-low and too-high inflation
  • The European Union’s trade chief said the race is on to avert an escalation in transatlantic commercial tensions as a result of U.S. objections to a French digital- services tax
  • The trade deal struck between U.S. President Donald Trump and Beijing will allow financial services companies from the U.S. to apply for licenses to buy Chinese non-performing loans directly from banks, cutting out the middle man they have to go through now

Asian equity markets traded positive after taking impetus from another record-setting session on Wall St. following the recent Phase 1 deal signing and where sentiment was underpinned by encouraging earnings and data, while participants also digested a flurry of key Chinese data including GDP which grew inline with expectations. ASX 200 (+0.3%) extended on all-time highs led by broad strength in mining names including Rio Tinto despite the Co. printing weaker Q4 iron ore shipments, although Nufarm was at the other end of the spectrum with double-digit losses after it flagged weaker earnings across several segments. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was kept afloat by favourable currency flows, while Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) initially gained after the continued PBoC liquidity efforts and slew of tier-1 Chinese data in which GDP printed inline with expectations and both Industrial Production and Retail Sales topped estimates. However, the data showed China’s 2019 growth slowed to 6.1% from 6.6% Y/Y which was the weakest since 1990 albeit still within the official 6.0%-6.5% target range. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher in a reclaim of the 152.00 level with the rebound unfazed despite the positive risk tone and all metrics pointing to weaker results at today’s 20yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Emerging Market Fiscal Deficits No Longer the Bogeyman to HSBC
  • Indonesia Says Microsoft Plans to Build Local Data Center
  • Here’s What You Need to Know About Friday’s Gain in Asian Stocks
  • Japan Court Bars Operation of Shikoku Electric’s Reactor

An upbeat session for European equities thus far [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%] with firm gains seen across the board, following on from an overall positive APAC session as sentiment remains underpinned following reassuring earnings coupled and decent data. The CAC (+1.0%) DAX (+0.8%) lead the gains in the region, with FTSE 100 joining the party following early underperformance on currency dynamics. Sectors are mostly in the green with the exception of the energy names as oil stalled not far off YTD lows and natural gas prices slump. Meanwhile, sectors leading the advances include industrials, utilities, healthcare and IT, with the latter potentially feeling some tailwind from Alphabet joining the USD 1tln market cap club. In terms of move. In terms of individual movers – heavyweight Bayer (+1.0%) remains a top gainer in the DAX after reports stated the Co. could be weeks away from settling over 75k cancer claims in relation to its Roundup weed-killer. Elsewhere, Richemont (+5.0%) shares have been bolstered by a Q3 revenue beat against the background of Hong Kong protests – thus Swatch (+1.9%) are higher in tandem. On the flip side, Casino (-7.7%) shares slumped as much as 9% at the open amid dismal prelim results and a profit warning amid the French pension reform protests, with peer Carrefour (+0.8%) initially falling in sympathy but nursing losses in recent trade.

Top European News

  • U.K. Retail Sales Extend Worst Run on Record Despite Discounting
  • Cyberpunk Setback Sends Witcher Game Maker Shares Down 13%
  • Flybe Rescue Is Said to Include U.K. Subsidies for Some Routes

In FX, sterling was in the ascendency ahead of ONS retail sales data for the festive month of December, with forecasts for a firm rebound in consumption bolstered by the fact that Black Friday fell within the reporting period. However, longs and anyone front-running the release on the prospect or rumour of an upside surprise were left high and dry by another bleak set of numbers. Cable duly collapsed from 1.3100+ to sub-1.3050 and Eur/Gbp spiked from around 0.8487 to circa 0.8533 and back above a big 1.2 bn option expiry at 0.8500 in the process.

  • USD – In stark contrast to the whipsaw moves witnessed vs the Pound, trading ranges have been relatively sedate and exemplified by the DXY sticking between narrow 97.259-396 lines in the run up to another raft of US economic releases, including housing starts, building permits, ip, manufacturing output, JOLTS and Michigan Sentiment. However, the Dollar retains an underlying bid in wake of yesterday’s upbeat data and Philly Fed survey on balance, with a significantly steeper Treasury curve on longer end supply factors also lending support.
  • AUD/NZD/CAD/JPY/EUR/CHF – The Aussie and Kiwi have derived a degree of positive momentum from mostly encouraging Chinese macro news overnight to pare some declines against their US counterpart and hold around or above big figures, at 0.6900 and 0.6600 respectively. Consequently, the Aud/Nzd cross is pivoting 1.0400 and could yet rebound a bit further if hefty Aud/Usd expiry interest at 0.6925 (1.3 bn) exerts some upside influence. Elsewhere, the Loonie is still meandering either side of 1.3050 and near 1.1 bn expiries from 1.3030-40, while the Yen is consolidating in a lower band below 110.00 where 1 bn expiry interest resides and the Euro remains restrained under 1.1150 amidst even bigger expiries stacked from 1.1090 to 1.1200 (totalling almost 12 bn and fairly evenly spread). Conversely, the decent Usd/Chf expiries are not that close to current levels (0.9660 or so) and the Franc failed to glean any real impetus/direction from Swiss import/export prices even though firmer or less deflationary than previously.
  • EM – Pretty mixed/inconclusive performances vs the Buck thus far, but the Rand has clawed back some post-SARB weakness and Lira vice-versa as oil prices rebound to the benefit of the Rouble, while the Renminbi continues to grind higher in wake of the aforementioned upbeat (overall) Chinese data.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have been lifted in recent trade in what seems to be more of a sentiment-driven move as opposed to oil-specific fundamental news. The former eyes USD 59/bbl to the upside having stalled just ahead of the psychological level, whilst the latter eclipsed USD 65/bbl. PVM notes that from this month’s oil market reports, the key takeaways are that global inventories will grow this year, with oversupply concerns continuing to persist in H1 2020, driven my rising Shale output and in-fitting with the latest US production figures with reached a record high of 13mln BPD. “In view of this, any lingering bulls ought to retreat into hibernation, remerging only in the summer when oil fundamentals shake off their bearish malaise.” – PVM states. The analysts also note that prices are underpinned after the Senate passed the USMCA trade deal yesterday but upside remains capped by concerns on whether China will live up to its promises to bolster US imports, which could bring an end to the ceasefire between the world’s two largest nations. Elsewhere, spot gold continues to consolidate from the parabolic price action seen since early December with prices currently steady just above the 1550/oz mark ahead of potential mild resistance around 1558/oz – with eyes remaining on the geopolitical landscape after US Central Command stated that 11 US troops were injured in last week’s Iranian attacks on the Al-Asad airbase, despite US President Trump claiming that there were no injuries. Copper prices meanwhile remain supported amid the overall market sentiment with price north of USD 2.85/lb, and potentially feeling some tailwinds from China’s GDP remaining within its target band.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.38m, prior 1.37m; Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.1%, prior 3.2%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.46m, prior 1.48m;Building Permits MoM, est. -1.48%, prior 1.4%
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 1.1%
  • Capacity Utilization, est. 77.0%, prior 77.3%
  • Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.05%, prior 1.1%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 99.3, prior 99.3; Current Conditions, est. 115.3, prior 115.5; Expectations, est. 89, prior 88.9
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7,250, prior 7,267

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ve been in Zurich, Geneva and Paris this week with no end in sight to the travel over the next few weeks. I must admit this time of year the amount of calories my iWatch says I’ve burnt on a daily basis drops noticeably as I don’t have as much chance to go to the gym or don’t walk as much. I also eat bad food away from home. However I try to counter this by walking everywhere. Yesterday I had a delightful 6 mile round trip from Gard Du Nord to our office at either ends of the day whilst listening to a audio book on sustainability. Nearly 300 calories each way and 11,000 steps. Oh and helping the environment a little and not taking that much longer than a taxi would take. Although less helpful to the environment are the worn soles of my work shoes than need replacing regularly. What I’ve learnt about fitness over the years is that going to the gym 3 times a week for 40 minutes hardly moves the needle. If you can do that plus walk a lot every day then the weight starts to comes off. Given that I’m 2.5 stone (c.16kgs) lighter than I was 12 years ago I may bring out a fitness video in time for next Xmas. I confess that 1 stone of that came in 1 month just by cutting back alcohol intake massively at the start. That progress positively stunned me and has meant I’ve kept at around 10 units a week (save the odd blow out) for well over a decade now. It’s a bit dull and the younger me would find me very boring but it has meant that at no point have I cut back on enormous portions of food. So also look out for the (no) diet book for next Xmas as well then.

Markets don’t seem to be on a diet either at the moment as the bull run for equities showed no sign of slowing down yesterday as US stocks climbed to yet more record highs thanks to positive data and earnings releases (including decent data from China overnight – more later). It was a strong day across the board, with the S&P 500 (+0.84%), the NASDAQ (+1.06%) and the Dow Jones (+0.92%) all advancing to new highs. In the process Alphabet (+0.8%) became the fourth global member of the trillion dollar market cap club alongside Microsoft ($1.27tn), Apple ($1.38tn) and Saudi Aramco ($1.8tn). Amazon is the next cab off the rank having got very very close last year (reached it intra-day) but is now c.7% below that mark.

Although tech shone yesterday, the top performer in the S&P 500 was Morgan Stanley, which rose +6.61% following a strong set of earnings. The bank reported net income in Q4 of $2.2bn, up 46% compared with Q4 2018. Meanwhile net revenue of $10.9bn was also up +27%, beating estimates of a $9.7bn reading.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed up +0.22% at its own record high albeit only around 5% above the peaks in the summers of 2000 and 2007. So not much above where it was 20 years ago albeit with dividends having been paid. From the same market peaks the S&P 500 has more than doubled.

The risk-on sentiment spread across asset classes, with oil rallying yesterday, as WTI (+1.35%) and Brent crude (+0.81%) both performed strongly. Treasury yields also pushed higher following a strong set US data out yesterday, with 10yr yields up +2.44bps to 1.807%, while the 2s10s curve steeped by 1.4bps. That said, sovereign debt had a more varied performance in Europe, with the core countries seeing yields fall, including Bunds (-1.8bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and Gilts (-1.1bps), while in the European periphery all saw yields rise, with Italian (+3.5bps) and Spanish (+1.4bps) debt losing ground. BTP futures rallied back a bit just after the close as Italy’s constitutional court rejected the election law referendum. It’s a big few weeks in politics in Italy. For more on this see our latest research here.

In terms of those data releases from yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing business outlook survey came in well above expectations, with the current general activity index up to 17.0 (vs. 3.8 expected), its highest level since May. Furthermore, the 6-month ahead general activity index rose to 38.4, its highest level since May 2018, suggesting a decent degree of optimism about the coming months. Given the area includes much of Pennsylvania, an important swing state narrowly won by President Trump in 2016, those numbers may be welcome news for his re-election campaign.

We also got a strong set of weekly initial jobless claims, at 204k last week (vs. 218k expected), which is the second-lowest reading since April 2019. The reading also sends the 4-week moving average down to 216.25k, its lowest since the start of November. Finally, retail sales rose +0.3% in December, in line with expectations, while the ex-autos reading was up +0.7% (vs. +0.5% expected), so a solid set of data overall notwithstanding some slight revisions to earlier retail sales.

Speaking of helpful developments for President Trump, just one day after the Phase One deal with China was signed, the US Senate passed the USMCA trade agreement yesterday in an 89-10 vote. The agreement will now head to President Trump’s desk for signing.

Overnight in Asia, markets are mixed with the Nikkei (+0.47%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.09%) being up while the Hang Seng (-0.03%) and Kospi (-0.06%) are making marginal loses. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat. More importantly we saw China’s monthly data dump. Going through it, Q4 GDP was in line with consensus at +6.0% yoy and YTD Q4 GDP came in one tenth lower than consensus at +6.1% yoy. Other data surprised on the upside with December industrial production coming in at +6.9% yoy (vs. +5.9% yoy expected) and retail sales printed at +8.0% yoy (vs. +7.9% yoy expected) while YTD fixed asset investment excluding rural came in two tenths higher than consensus at +5.4% yoy. So overall a strong set of December numbers came out from China pointing to a gradual recovery in economic activity.

In other news, the US Labour Department confirmed reports from earlier in the week that it will ban computers from the room where journalists receive advance access to major economic reports such as employment and inflation figures in an effort to ensure a level playing field. So don’t expect full stories immediately on the release of data anymore. The change will take effect from March 1. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that the US treasury will start issuing new 20 year bonds in the first half of 2020. Yields on 10y USTs are up +1.0bps overnight.

Back to yesterday and we also had the minutes released from Lagarde’s first ECB meeting in December yesterday. In terms of the key takeaways, it was clear that the Governing Council was happy with the monetary policy stance, with the minutes saying that “members widely agreed with the proposal … to keep the monetary policy stance unchanged, with a steady hand being warranted for monetary policy.” Notably, there seemed to be an increasing awareness of the side effects of policy, which were mentioned 5 times in the minutes, up from 1 at Draghi’s last meeting. So clearly something being thought about by the ECB. And we also had a paragraph on issues of climate change, with “members contending that there was a need to step up efforts to understand the economic consequences of climate change.”

Looking at the day ahead, we have a number of data releases coming out. In Europe, there’ll be the Euro Area’s current account and construction output for November, along with December’s CPI and core CPI, while from the UK we’ll get December’s retail sales. Over in the US, there’ll be December’s housing starts, building permits, industrial production and capacity utilisation, November’s job openings, and January’s preliminary University of Michigan sentiment reading. We’ll also hear from the Philadelphia Fed President Harker, who’ll be discussing the economic outlook.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.42 POINTS OR 0.05%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 173.38 POINTS OR 0.60%   /The Nikkei closed UP 173.38 POINTS OR 0.60%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .30%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8586 /Oil UP TO 58.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.78 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8586 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8614 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

LEBANON

Lebanon in a mess.  It has a current account deficit of 25% of its GDP..and all of its USA dollars of inflow have evaporated.  They will default and no doubt we will see a bail in where depositors pay to save the banks. You can bet the farm for more rioting if that happens

(zerohedge)

Lebanese ‘Week Of Wrath’ Sees Banks Physically Attacked On Large Scale

Lebanese banks are limiting account holders to withdrawing a mere $100 of their own money at a time (and just $200 total a week) after the country’s banking crisis due to eroding liquidity and central bank’s looming default have been at the center of mass anti-corruption street protests since October of last year.

“There is a lot of anger,” one Lebanese protester told the AFP on Thursday. “You have to go to the bank twice to withdraw just $200.” 

Banks and ATMs are now being targeted for vandalism and destruction by demonstrators who have declared a “week of wrath” — specifically in major cities like Beirut. It’s now been two months since commercial banks have enacted severe controls preventing large money transfers abroad and restricting clients’ access to their deposits.

 

Banks across Beirut have been targeted for physical attack this week. Image source: AFP 

These latest imposed capital controls now include limiting withdrawals to less than $200 a week, according to Lebanon’s Daily Star.

Violent clashes between mostly young protesters and policed have raged in the upscale commercial hub of Hamra district in Beirut over the last two nights. Local reports described the scene as looking like a war zone, with burning tires in debris and glass strewn streets — much of that glass from smashed bank windows.

Several bank fronts attacked by enraged protesters prevented from accessing their accounts amid a broader political and financial crisis:

The Daily Star reports the crowd attempted to storm the Central Bank building in the district:

After a month of rain, Tuesday’s protests saw the highest turnout in weeks. Following an extended stand-off in front of the headquarters of the Central Bank, protesters came into conflict with security forces that resulted in at least seven wounded.

Several people attempted to storm the Central Bank building, breaking through the outer fence and calling for “the fall of the rule of the bank” and the resignation of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh.

A reported 59 were arrested during the mayhem, which is likely set to continue, and has for months witnessed frustrated Lebanese physically attacking bank fronts in their efforts to get their own money out.

Walid@walid970721

‘s protesters can no longer be called peaceful. They block vital roads & highways. They destroy bank windows & ATMs as well as throw rocks & firecrackers at security forces. And then when they get arrested, their friends are rioting in front of the police station.

Embedded video

Protest leaders have consistently accused the national and commercial banks of “theft” while the bankers attempt to defend against a massive run on currency, especially the dollar.

“What happened yesterday was a response from people who are hungry, whose money is being stolen, and economic policies that have directly led us to this crisis for years now,” Ayman, a 27-year old present for the Hamra protests told the Lebanese Daily Star.

Joyce Karam

@Joyce_Karam

Riots in Beirut tonight targeting Banks and Central Bank. Financial situation in decline and state bankruptcy nears.

Here protesters downtown smashing the window of Beirut Bank. Day 90:

Embedded video

Adding to the the explosive situation is that Lebanon has been without a government since the prime minister resigned in late October amid protests so large (some 1 million people) that it brought the small country to a standstill.

Al Jazeera summarizes the situation as follows:

Compounding the situation, debt-burdened Lebanon has been without a government since Saad Hariri resigned as prime minister on October 29 under pressure from the anti-government protests.

Its under-fire politicians have yet to agree on a new cabinet despite the designation last month of Hassan Diab, a professor and former education minister, to replace Hariri.

Ben Rickert@Ben__Rickert

Smashed Window Fronts, Destroyed ATMs, Graffiti-Covered Walls: Public Anger Against Cash-Strapped Banks Boils Over In Crisis-Hit Over Capital Controls That Have Trapped The Savings Of Ordinary Depositors.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

In some cases it appears local security forces have held back or simply ignored instances of mob destruction of bank fronts (after all, the police and their families can’t access their accounts either).

Gaby Awad@gabyawad

Shame shame shame

Embedded video

Meanwhile, Reuters outlines ways the country could imminently default, and possible options for barely avoiding it:

One of the possibilities to help Lebanon’s finances is to take a slice of the deposits individuals and firms hold at Lebanese banks.

The controversial measure was used in Cyprus at the height of the euro zone debt crisis. James McCormack, head of Fitch’s sovereign rating team, said that move didn’t actually trigger a default as the definition of a default is more narrowly focused on the non-payment of debt.

Though certainly the people in the streets will have something to say about taking “a slice of the deposits” held by individuals and firms.

Nafez Zouk@nafezouk

Staying on the subject of ‘s BoP, how is the current account deficit (25% of GDP) financed? Well, not surprisingly, the $ outflows have traditionally been covered by nonresident FX deposit inflows, portfolio inflows, and banking flows. All of which have dried up now.

View image on Twitter

“One of the most heavily indebted countries in the world, Lebanon has $2.5 billion in Eurobonds due this year including a $1.2 billion bond set to mature in March,” Reuters notes.

“But its dire finances and political crisis mean it is running out of options to avoid a default.”

 

END

 

IRAN/CANADA/AFGHANISTAN/UKRAINE/SWEDEN/UK

Let us see how Iran handles payments to victims for the shooting down on this Ukrainian plane.  Iran is already broke

(zerohedge)

“The World Is Watching”: Five Countries Demand Iran Pay Reparations To Crash Victims’ Families

Perhaps this is why some Iranian sources tried to do an about-face and blame the crash of UIA Flight 752 on an American cyberattack: Canada and four other nations whose nationals died in the crash are demanding that Iran accept responsibility and – more importantly – compensate the victims’ families. 

According to Reuters, Canada, Ukraine, Sweden, Afghanistan and Britain said Iran should hold a “thorough, independent and transparent international investigation open to grieving nations” in a joint statement released following a meeting in London between officials from the various countries.

Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois-Philippe Champagne

 

The Boeing 737-800 was struck by two missiles on Jan. 8 just minutes after taking off from the international airport in Tehran, en route to Kiev. Iran admitted on Saturday that a military missile operator fired on the plane in error, believing it might be a cruise missile (the plane was notably shot down just hours after Iran launched a counterattack on an American base). All 176 passengers & crew on board the plane, including 57 Canadians, were killed.

To be sure,  most of those traveling on the flight were Iranian students headed back to school abroad, hence the theme of the public outrage that followed Iran’s admission of guilt.

Iran has arrested those it says were responsible for the mistake.

The five countries have also asked Iran to identify victims with “dignity and transparency” and work with domestic officials and victims’ families as they seek the return of their loved ones’ remains.

“The eyes of the international community are on Iran today. I think that Iran has a choice, and the world is watching,” Canadian foreign minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said at a news conference in London.

Ministers from all five countries gathered before the presser to light candles commemorating the victims at the Canadian High Commission in London.

Of course, such a settlement would likely stretch into the 100s of millions of dollars, which would seriously cut into Iran’s budget for financing Shiite militias across the region (thanks to President Trump’s sanctions, the country is once again struggling to find buyers for its oil, limiting revenue).

END

IRAN

This author’s assessment on what is going to happen in Iraq/Iran  in the coming days

(Crooke/Strategic Culture Foundation)

“No, It’s Not Over!” – Reading Sun Tzu In Tehran

Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Iran is not done. General Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, said in a briefing yesterday that the strike “was the starting point of a great operation”. He also underlined that “the strikes were not meant to cause fatalities: We intended [rather] to deliver a blow to the enemy’s military machine”. And the Pentagon is saying, too, that Iran intentionally missed US troops at the bases. This is tantamount to the Pentagon admitting that Iran can land missiles with extreme accuracy over a distance of several hundred miles – and further, this occurred with not one missile being intercepted by the US forces. To completely avoid targeting soldiers at a large military base is no mean feat – it suggests an accuracy within a meter or two – not ten meters – for Iranian missiles.

Isn’t this the point? It suggests that advances in Iran’s guidance systems can land missiles with extreme precision. Haven’t we seen something similar happen recently in Saudi Arabia (Abqaiq)? And was it not clear from Abqaiq that highly expensive US air defence systems do not work? The IRGC satisfactorily have demonstrated that they and their allies can penetrate US manufactured air defence systems, using domestically produced ‘smart’ missiles, and by using their electronic warfare systems.

The US bases around the region – in short – now represent vulnerable US infrastructure – and not strength. Ditto for those expensive carrier battle fleets. The Iranian message was clear and very pertinent to those who understand (or want to understand). To others, less strategically aware, it might seem that Iran pulled its military punch, and showed weakness. Actually, when you have just demonstrated the ability to upend the military status quo, there is no need for a hail of trumpets. The landing of the message itself is the ‘blow’ to a ‘military machine’. Neatly calibrated: it avoided head to head-on war. Trump stood down (and claimed success).

So then, is it all over – all done and dusted? Finished with? Not at all. Both the Supreme Leader and Gen. Hajizadeh said (effectively) that the strike represented an outset – ‘a beginning’. But much of the MSM – both in the West and some in Israel – lend a cultural ‘tin ear’ towards how Iran manages asymmetric war – even when it is spelled out explicitly.

Asymmetric warfare is not a ‘dick swinging’ exercise. It is more David and Goliath. Goliath can crush David with a blow from his clenched fist, but the latter is nimble; quick on his feet, dancing around the giant – just out of his reach. David has stamina, but the giant lumbers heavily around, and is easily angered and exhausted. Eventually, even a well-aimed pebble – not even a Howitzer – brings him down.

Listen closely to the Iranian messageShould the US withdraw from Iraq, as requested by the Iraqi Parliament, and in accordance with its agreement with the government of Baghdad, and then ‘go’ from the region, the military situation will ease. However, should US insist on staying in Iraq, US forces will come under political and military pressure to quit – but not from the state of Iran. It will come from the inhabitants of those states in which the US forces presently are deployed. At this point, US soldiers may be killed (though not by Iranian missiles). It is America’s choice. Iran holds the initiative.

Iranian leaders have been very explicit: The ‘slap’ of the strike at the Ain al-Assad base is not the pay-back for General Soleimani’s targeted assassination. Rather, it is the campaign consisting of the amorphous, quasi-political, quasi-military, asymmetrical war on America’s presence in the Middle East that has been dedicated as fitting to his memory.

This is David dancing around Goliath. Soleimani’s assassination has energised and mobilised millions in a new fervour of resistance (and not just the Shi’a, by the way). And the trashing of Iraq’s sovereignty by President Trump’s response to the vote in the Iraqi parliament (calling for foreign forces to leave Iraq), has created a new political paradigm which even the most pro-American of Iraqis cannot easily ignore. It is – notably – a non-sectarian mission (removing foreign forces).

And Israel, after initial self-congratulation (amongst the Netanyahuists) has understood that Iran has ‘stepped-up’, and not ‘stepped back’. Veteran Israeli security corresponded Ben Caspit writes:

“The letter of Gen. William H. Sili, commander of US military operations in Iraq, was leaked and then rapidly disseminated among Israel’s most senior security figures on Jan 6 … The content of the letter — that the Americans were preparing to withdraw from Iraq immediately — turned on all the alarm systems throughout the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv. More so, the publication was about to set in motion an Israeli “nightmare scenario” in which ahead of the upcoming US elections, President Donald Trump would rapidly evacuate all US forces from Iraq and Syria.

“Simultaneously, Iran announced that it is immediately halting its various commitments regarding its nuclear agreement with the superpowers, returning to high-level uranium enrichment of unlimited amounts and renewing its accelerated push for achieving military nuclear abilities. “Under such circumstances,” a senior Israeli defense source told [Caspit], “We truly remain alone at this most critical period. There is no worse scenario than this, for Israel’s national security … It is not clear how this letter was written, it is not clear why it was leaked, it is not clear why it was ever written to begin with. In general, nothing is clear with regard to American conduct in the Middle East. We get up every morning to new uncertainty.””

The impeachment of the US President launched by the House, has left Trump very vulnerable to the Zionist and Evangelical rump in the US Senate, whose votes nonetheless will be essential to Trump’s bid to remain in office when the articles of impeachment move to the Senate. And to a trial where Trump must block the Democrats allying with any Republican rebels in order to achieve a two-thirds ‘guilty’ vote. The Impeachment leverage has been used several times to push Trump to act in the Middle-East directly contrary to his electoral interest – which remains contingent on keeping soaring markets – and in talk of a China Trade deal.

 

What Trump needs most now (in electoral campaign terms) is a de-escalation with Iran – one that would mitigate political pressure from the neo-con and Evangelical quarters, and allow him to show-case the inflated asset markets.

But this is precisely what he will not get.

Trumps’ attempts to contain the Iranian response to the Soleimani killing were unreservedly rebuffed by Tehran. The missives were never opened, nor allowed for them to be spoken by the mediators. There is no room for talks, unless Trump lifts sanctions and the US re-commits to the JCPOA. This will never happen. There will now be immense pressure from all the Israel lobbies for America to remain in Iraq and Syria (pace Caspit’s comments). And the ghost of Soleimani’s ‘revenge’ will haunt America’s forces in the region for months, if not years, to come.

Iran – wisely – has eschewed direct, state-to-state military conflict, for a more subtle, and pernicious war on the US presence in the Middle East – a war, which if successful, will re-cast the region.

No, it’s not over. Its set to escalate (but in an asymmetrical way). Trump will remain squeezed in the rogue Senators’ vice.

END
IRAN/USA
the Ayatollah slams Trump stating that he is a “clown”. He wants revenge for the killing of Soleimani
(zerohedge)

Ayatollah Slams Trump: He’s A “Clown” Who Will Betray The Iranian People

In his first Friday prayers sermon in more than 8 years, Ayatollah Khamenei said that the IRGC will seek revenge against the US and take their fight beyond Iran’s borders.

That the Ayatollah picked now for the sermon is hardly a surprise: The Iranian public is furious at the regime for its botched downing of a Ukrainian passenger airliner filled with young Iranian students traveling back to college abroad. Many even suspect that the regime’s tepid public retaliation for the killing of General Qasem Suleimani has also helped undermine it, according to Haaretz.

Going on the offensive, the Ayatollah attacked not only the US but the EU member states that once tried so hard to save the Iran deal after President Trump pulled the US out. He assailed President Trump as a “clown” who will “betray Iranians,” whom President Trump has claimed to support.

“These American clowns who lie and say they are with the Iranian people should see who the Iranian people are,” the Ayatollah said Friday.

President Trump infamously tweeted a message in Farsi directed at the Iran people last week.

However, Iran’s feelings about its one-time European counterparts have substantially soured over the last day after the UK, France and Germany decided to lodge a complaint Tuesday alleging violation of the JCPOA by Iran, depriving them of any right to claim the moral high ground.

Yesterday, Iran accused its former European partners of sacrificing a troubled 2015 nuclear deal to avoid trade reprisals threatened by President Trump.

The European complaint could worsen Iran’s economic pain by leading to UN sanctions being re-imposed.

“Resistance must continue until the region is completely freed from the enemy’s tyranny,” Khamenei said, in a reference to the US.

The Ayatollah also renewed his call for American and coalition troops to leave neighboring Iraq and the wider Middle East. Her also defended Iran’s Quds Force, which coordinates with regional proxies to support Iran’s interests, as a “humanitarian” organization.

“The fact that Iran has the power to give such a slap to a world power shows the hand of God,” said Khamenei, in a reference to the strikes, adding that the killing of Soleimani showed Washington’s “terrorist nature.”

“The Quds Force is a humanitarian organization with human values that protects people across the region,” Khamenei said. “They are fighters without borders.”

For those who couldn’t attend the Ayatollah’s little speech, a twitter account that has often been linked with the Iranian regime appears to have tweeted a lengthy summary.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

In minutes: Tehran’s Friday Prayer to be led by Imam Khamenei after 8 years

Press TV

@PressTV

LIVE:‘s Leader to lead Friday prayers in capital https://www.pscp.tv/w/cPFiKzF6dkVOV0RMQVd5UWV8MXJteFBYb3paQmR4ToEcar0-8WbbKjI1WGvfyppYAdWOSGAqNUJ6t-cwQQ1l 

Press TV @PressTV

LIVE:#Iran’s Leader to lead Friday prayers in capital #Tehran

pscp.tv

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

The past two weeks were eventful and exceptional weeks. There were bitter and sweet events for the Iranian nation to take lessons from during these two weeks.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

What does “Allah’s Days” mean? It’s the day when one sees God’s power in events. The day when 10s of millions in Iran & 100s of thousands in Iraq & other countries took to the streets to venerate Martyr Soleimani creating the world’s largest funeral. This is one of Allah’s Days.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

The day when IRGC’s missiles demolished the US military base in Iraq is also one of Allah’s days. A nation having the spirit to slap a global, harassing, Arrogant Power in this way shows God’s power and is one of Allah’s Days.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

After 41 years since the ‘s victory, which power brought this unparalleled, massive crowd to the funeral of Martyr ? Who created these love and enthusiasm? What factor could bring such a miracle other than God’s power?

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

The shameless US government was disgraced by calling Martyr Soleimani a terrorist when he was recognized by everyone as the most prominent & powerful commander in the fight against terrorism. Which other commander could do the great things he did?

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

The Zionist news empire tried to say the honorable General is a terrorist! The US’s President & Secretary of State repeated this. God did the opposite of what they wanted. Not only in Iran, but in various countries, people saluted this Martyr & burnt the Zionist & US flags.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

The US govt killed Martyr Soleimani, not in the battlefield but thievishly & cowardly. This abased the US. Before that, such assassinations were the Zionist regime’s specialty.
Now, US president says he assassinated Soleimani. God smacks some people to make them confess.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

The IRGC’s powerful response in attacking a US military base was a blow to the US govt. It was an effective military strike. More important and greater than a military strike, it was a blow to the dignity and awe of the US as a superpower.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

For years, the US has been receiving blows from the in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon & Afghanistan. But, bombing was greater than these since it defied the prestige and awe of the US govt. They said they’ll intensify sanctions. This can’t win back their dignity.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

The Quds Force is an entity with lofty, human goals. The Quds Force looks everywhere & at everyone with tolerance. They are combatants without borders who go wherever they are needed to protect the dignity of the oppressed. They make sacrifices to protect sanctities.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

The combatants in the sacrifice their lives to assist the oppressed in the region. They help them to confront terrorism and Arrogance and push away the shadow of war, terror, and destruction from Iran and other countries.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

With their turnout in the 10s of millions for Martyr ‘s funeral, the Iranian nation showed they support against the enemy’s aggression.

These American clowns lie in utter viciousness that they stand with the Iranian people. See who the people of are.

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

Are the few hundred people who disrespected posters of Iran’s honorable Martyr General Soleimani “the people of Iran”? Or, are the millions who attended his funeral the Iranian people?

Khamenei.ir@khamenei_ir

The villainous US govt repeatedly says that they are standing by the Iranian ppl. They lie. If you are standing by the Iranian ppl, it is only to stab them in the heart with your venomous daggers. Of course, you have so far failed to do so, & you will certainly continue to fail.

View image on Twitter

Finally, Khamenei called for national unity following the tragic downing of UIA Flight 752. He said Iran’s “enemies” were celebrating the unfortunate error,  term usually used to refer to the United States and its allies, had tried to use the downing of Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 to shift attention from the killing of Soleimani.

END
IRAN/USA
USA now admits that 11 Americans are being treated for concussion like injuries suffered in the missile attack
(zerohedge)

US Admits 11 Troops Injured By Iranian Retaliatory Missile Strike

It looks like the Iranian government wasn’t the only one hiding critical details about the aftermath of the Islamic Revolutionary regime’s ‘retaliatory strike’ from the public.

According to several media reportseleven US service members were flown out of Al Assad Air Base in Iraq and treated for concussion symptoms after Iran’s rocket attack targeting two American bases in Iraq.

A spokesman for the US Central Command made the revelation late Thursday evening, contradicting President Trump’s earlier claim that no Americans were injured by the strikes.

The strike victims are “still being assessed,” the High Command said. It is the policy of the American military to screen troops who were in the area of a blast.

“As a standard procedure, all personnel in the vicinity of a blast are screened for traumatic brain injury, and if deemed appropriate are transported to a higher level of care,” said Capt Urban.

Offering an explanation of the discrepancy between Trump’s initial claims that “no Americans were harmed” and these new reports, the high command said the injured service members weren’t transferred to a hospital until days after the attack.

Out of an “abundance of caution”, some of those servicemembers were moved to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, while others were sent to Camp Arifjan, Kuwait, for follow-on screening.

After being deemed fit for duty, the service members typically return to Iraq. The High Command declined to discuss the exact medical condition of the troops, saying “the health and welfare of our personnel is a top priority and we will not discuss any individual’s medical status.”

When asked by reporters why the US didn’t release this information sooner, since the high command appears to have known about the 11 troops for several days, Capt Urban replied that “We moved to correct the record as soon as able.”

As the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed recently, many in the Pentagon feared Iran would kill American troops with its retaliation, something that Trump would have interpreted as a ‘red line’. Fortunately, it appears the attacks were merely designed to knock out the operating capacity of the American structures.

“I believe, based on what I saw and what I know, is that [the strikes] were intended to cause structural damage, destroy vehicles and equipment and aircraft and to kill personnel. That’s my own personal assessment,” Gen Milley told reporters last week.

 

As images of the aftermath have shown, the explosions at Al Assad Air Base, about 110 miles west of Baghdad, destroyed concrete barriers and troop barracks, while leaving large craters in the missiles’ wake.

While it’s true the administration probably could have released this information sooner, it’s also worth clarifying that these injuries don’t appear to be very serious. In fact, it looks like most of the men who were transported off-base for treatment were only dealt with in that way because it’s standard operating procedure, not because they were truly seriously injured.

The retaliatory attack was launched as revenge for the killing of IRGC Quds Force leader Qasem Suleimani, a revered military figure in Iran. The regime has said its true retaliation will come in a more covert form, and will doubtlessly be more bloody than the last round of strikes.

END
TURKEY/LIBYA
The latest on the Libyan conflict
(courtesy SouthFront)

Turkey’s Underwhelming Invasion Of Libya

Via Southfront.org,

In early 2020, Libya became one of the main hot points in the Greater Middle East with stakes raised by Turkey’s decision to launch a military operation there…

On January 5, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey had sent troops to Libya to support the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA). No Turkish soldiers will reportedly participate in direct fighting. Instead, they will create an operation center and coordinate operations. Erdogan pointed that “right now”, there will be “different units serving as a combatant force.” He didn’t say who exactly these troops would be, but it is apparent that these are members of Turkish-backed Syrian militant groups and Turkey-linked private military contractors.

 

Ankara started an active deployment of members of pro-Turkish Syrian militant groups in Libya in December 2019. So far, over 600 Turkish-backed Syrian fighters have arrived. According to media reports, the officially dispatched Turkish troops included military advisers, technicians, electronic warfare and air defense specialists. Their total number is estimated at around 40-60 personnel.

A day after the Erdogan announcement, on January 6, the defense of the GNA collapsed in Sirte and the GNA’s rival, the Libyan National Army (LNA), took control of the town. Several pro-GNA units from Sirte publicly defected to the LNA with weapons and military equipment, including at least 6 armoured vehicles. With the loss of Sirte, only two large cities – Tripoli and Misrata – formally remained in the hands of the GNA. Misrata and its Brigades in fact remain a semi-independent actor operating under the GNA banner.

From January 7 to January 12, when the sides agreed on a temporary ceasefire proposed in a joint statement of the Turkish and Russian presidents, the LNA continued offensive operations against GNA forces near Tripoli and west of Sirte capturing several positions there. The GNA once again demonstrated that it is unable to take an upper hand in the battle against forces of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.

The GNA formally requested “air, ground and sea” military support from Turkey on December 26th, 2019, in the framework of the military cooperation deal signed by the sides in November. On January 2, 2020, the Turkish Parliament approved the bill allowing troop deployment in Libya. This move did not change the situation strategically. Even before the formal approval, Ankara already was engaged in the conflict. It sent large quantities of weapons and military equipment, including “BMC Kirpi” armoured vehicles, deployed Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles at airfields near Tripoli and Misrata, and sent operators and trainers in order to assist GNA forces.

Turkey could increase military supplies, deploy additional private military contractors, military advisers and special forces units, but it has no safe place to deploy own air group to provide the GNA with a direct air support like Russia did for pro-Assad forces in Syria. Approximately 90% of Libya is under the LNA control. Tripoli and Misrata airports are in a strike distance for the LNA. Tunisia, Algeria, Niger, Chad and Sudan refuse to play any direct role in the conflict, while the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is still too far away. Egypt, alongside with the UAE and Russia, is a supporter of the LNA. Therefore, deployment there is out of question.

Turkey operates no aircraft carriers. Its TCG Anadolu amphibious assault ship can be configured as a light aircraft carrier, but the warship isn’t in service yet. It is unclear how Ankara will be able to provide the GNA with an extensive air support without endangering its own aircraft by deploying them close to the combat zone.

Turkey could deploy a naval task force to support the GNA. Nonetheless, this move is risky, if one takes into account the hostile political environment, with Egypt, Cyprus, the UAE and Greece are strictly against any such actions. Additionally, this deployment will go against the interests of other NATO member states such as France and Italy that see the expansion of the Turkish influence as a direct threat to their vital economic interests, especially in the oil business. Warships near the Libyan coast will be put in jeopardy from modern anti-ship measures. Yemen’s Houthis repeatedly proved that missiles could be quite an effective tool to combat a technologically advanced enemy. In the worst-case scenario, the Turkish Navy can suffer notable losses, and the risk of this is too real to tangible to overlook.

Another unlikely option is a large-scale ground operation that will require an amphibious landing. Turkey has several landing ships, the biggest of which are the two Bayraktar-class amphibious warfare ships (displacement – 7,254 tons). There are also the Osman Gazi-class landing ship (3,700 tons), two Sarucabey-class landing ships (2,600 tons). Other landing ships, albeit active, are outdated. With 5 modern landing ships, any landing operation will endanger Turkish forces involved, keeping in mind the complex diplomatic environment and the LNA that will use all means and measures that it has to prevent such a scenario.

 

In these conditions, the most likely scenario of Turkey’s military operation was the following:

  • Deployment of a limited number of specialists;
  • Public employment of private military contractors’
  • Redeployment of members of pro-Turkish proxy groups from Syria to Libya;
  • Diplomatic and media campaign to secure Ankara’s vital interests and find a political solution that would prevent the LNA’s final push to capture Tripoli. Turkey sees the Libyan foothold and the memorandum on maritime boundaries signed with the GNA as the core factors needed to secure own national interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.

This is exactly what Ankara did. On January 8, Turkish and Russian Presidents released a joint statement in which they called for reaching cease-fire in Libya by midnight of January 12. The joint statement emphasized the worsening situation in Libya and its negative impact on “the security and stability of Libya’s wider neighborhood, the entire Mediterranean region, as well as the African continent, triggering irregular migration, further spread of weapons, terrorism and other criminal activities including illicit trafficking,” and called for the resumption of a political dialogue to settle the conflict. The LNA initially rejected the ceasefire initiative, but then accepted it. This signals that key LNA supporters agreed on the format proposed by the Turkish and Russian leaders. On January 13, the delegations of the GNA, the LNA, and Turkey arrived in Moscow for talks on a wider ceasefire deal. The deal was not reached and clashes near Tripoli resumed on January 14.

Russian and Turkish interests are deeply implicated. Some experts speculated the contradictions within the Libyan conflict could become a stone that will destroy the glass friendship between Ankara and Moscow. However, the joint Russian-Turkish diplomatic efforts demonstrate that the sides found a kind of understanding and possibly agreed on the division of spheres of influence. If the Moscow negotiations format allows de-escalating the situation and putting an end to the terrorism threat and violence in Libya, it will become another success of the practical approach employed by the both powers in their cooperation regarding the Middle East questions.

The 2011 NATO intervention led by France, Italy and the United States destroyed the Libyan statehood in order to get control of the country’s energy resources. Now, Egypt, the UAE, Russia and Turkey are driving France, Italy and the US out of Libya in order to put an end to the created chaos and secure own interests.

END

6.Global Issues

BALTIC DRY INDEX

Despite the trade deal, the pundits do not see any appreciable demand globally in shipping demand

(zerohedge)

No “Instant Push” In Shipping Demand From Phase One Trade Deal 

The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities across the world, has plummeted in the last several months as tariff-frontrunning ends.

The synchronized global downturn is expected to persist in 2020 as the so-called “front-loading” effect ahead of tariff deadlines has ended.

The Phase one agreement between the U.S. and China was signed on Wednesday, but that doesn’t guarantee the shipping industry, including container, dry bulk, LNG, mixed fleet, and tanker demand will increase in the near term, reported Splash 247.

 

The full text of the 94-page US-China trade agreement specifies China will increase purchases of U.S. products and services by least $200 billion over the next 24 months.

The $200 billion includes $77.7 billion of manufactured goods, $32 billion of agriculture goods, and $52.4 billion of energy products, including LNG, crude, petroleum products, and coal.

Peter Sand, the chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, said: “don’t expect an instant push to the demand from this, but a lift for coming years if the volumes will get traded and shipped.”

“The phase 1 deal clearly holds a potential upside for the global shipping industry in all sectors. As more crude oil and agriculture products will get seaborne. Let’s hope for this deal to succeed. But recovering from two years of trade war is not easy,” Sand said.

Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at shipbroking house Banchero Costa, said details of the Phase one agreement are vague, and the implementation of the deal could take some time.

“There is apparently this headline figure of $200bn of extra imports from the U.S. If actually realized, it would mean essentially doubling imports from the 2017 figure. There is no guarantee that this will actually happen, but if yes, than it would translate into more agricultural and energy imports from the U.S., It would, however, be at the expense of replacing other exporters such as Brazil for soybeans, Saudi Arabia for crude oil, Qatar for LNG, more than increasing overall trade volumes,” Leszczynski said.

“China will, however, need to be very careful in not allowing this to disrupt its other trade and political relationships with other countries, so I expect things to move slowly,” Leszczynski added.

And what this all means is that the instant economic growth projected by the Trump administration might not show up in early 2020 that could lead to repricing event for risk assets, namely stocks.

END
GLOBE/UN
Now the UN is warning of a slow growth in the global economy. The UN states that growth has plunged to its lowest level in a decade
(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1111 DOWN .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.12 DOWN 0.060 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3054   DOWN   0.0022  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3057 UP .0016 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.42 POINTS OR 0.05% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 173.38 POINTS OR 0.60%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,30%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 173.38 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.42 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 30% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 108.13  POINTS OR 0.45%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1559.40

silver:$18.15-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.81% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.27 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.16 UP 15 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.50% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.46%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,38 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 92 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.22% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.60% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1094  DOWN     .0043 or 43 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.17 DOWN .050 OR YEN UP 5  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3070 UP .0029 POUND UP 29  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 29 basis points to 1.3070

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8598    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8632  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8973 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.83 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.29 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.60 UP  28  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 64.75  0.49%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 96.70 POINTS OR .72%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 61.69 POINTS 1.02%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 108.80 POINTS or 1.14%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 200.66 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.55 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.62 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    61.56  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.09 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 9 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.22 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.69//

 

 

BRENT :  64.97

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.82…plus 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.28..plus 3 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1092 ( DOWN 45   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.14 DOWN .038 (YEN UP 4 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.62 UP 30 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3014 DOWN 62  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8878

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.58   UP 0.07 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 7 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3069 DOWN 27 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8598  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8650 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.22%

 

The Dow closed UP 50.46 POINTS OR 0.17%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 31.81 POINTS OR 0.34%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.10 CLOSED DOWN .22

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.826%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Melt-Up Mania: Stocks Reach Most Expensive, Most Overbought Levels, Surpassing DotCom Bubble

The Fed has created a Full-Rick-Astley market…

And everyone knows, you never go full-Risk-Astley!

Source: Bloomberg

China was mixed on the week with a dash-for-trash rotation from big caps to small cap tech…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets were all green on the week with UK’s FTSE leading the way,,,

Source: Bloomberg

European ‘VIX’ hit a new record low today…

Source: Bloomberg

All major US indices were notably green this week with Trannies and Small Caps best…

Notably Small Caps and Trannies were weakest today (after some chaos at the open). The Dow was rescued every time it touched unch…

Defensives dominated cyclicals this week…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P 500 has now had 70 straight days without a 1% loss… SURPRISE – since The Fed started re-expanding its balance sheet…

Source: Bloomberg

In case you wondered, the period before the Fed 2018 crash was 112 days without a 1% move.

Nasdaq is as overbought as it was during the dotcom bubble peak…

Source: Bloomberg

And the S&P 500 has never been more expensive…

Source: Bloomberg

This week saw the biggest short-squeeze since October…

Source: Bloomberg

This week saw the ‘average’ stock in America finally transcend its previous highs of Sept 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

After this morning’s solid housing starts dats, PHLX Housing Index spiked to record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Broker-Dealer stocks soared to all-time highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Auto stocks surged to the highest since 2004?

Source: Bloomberg

Jeff Bezos is still not a member of the “four commas” club…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit spreads were hammered lower every day this week as equity protection costs tumbled to an 11 handle briefly…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields roundtripped on the week after dropping early and rising in the last two days to end unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar spiked today, testing a key resistance level and failing once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Global FX Vol fell to a new record low…

Source: Bloomberg

A big week for cryptos led by Bitcoin Cash…(NOTE – late day today cryptos were dumped)

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tagged $9,000 intraday today…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed with PMs flat, copper up and crude lower…

Source: Bloomberg

US NatGas dropped below $2 for the first time since 2016

Source: Bloomberg

Palladium has gone utterly parabolic, soaring 8% today – the biggest daily spike since Dec 2009

Source: Bloomberg

And while Palladium had a massive 2019, it has started 2020 off exponentially strong…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, according to BofA, the S&P is overvalued on 19 of 20 metrics

So there’s still hope!

And the Y2K Fed Liquidity Analog is still holding…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

University of Michigan Sentiment slips in early January as well as outlook

(zerohedge)

UMich Sentiment Slips In Early Jan As Outlook Dips

Despite soaring stocks and a trade deal, University of Michigan Sentiment survey signaled a small decline from 99.3 to 99.1 in preliminary January data (with current conditions improving but the outlook dipping)…

  • Current economic conditions index rose to 115.8 vs. 115.5 last month.
  • Expectations index fell to 88.3 vs. 88.9 last month.

Source: Bloomberg

Buying Conditions were perceived to have improved for houses and durables but plunged for autos…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, and perhaps most notably, inflation expectations jumped in January:

  • Expected change in median prices during the next year rose to 2.5% vs. 2.3% last month.
  • Expected change in median prices during the next 5-10 years rose to 2.5% vs. 2.2% last month.

Source: Bloomberg

Though it remains low trendwise.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA industrial production has suffered its worst year since 2015

(zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Suffers Worst Year Since 2015

After surging in November (by the most since Oct 2017), Industrial production was expected to contract modestly in December.

November’s big jump was revised lower and the headline production printed a 0.3% MoM contraction (worse than expected), leaving US industrial production down 1.01% YoY – the worst since Oct 2016.

Source: Bloomberg

That makes 7 of the 12 months with contraction in 2019 and ends up being the worst year since 2015.

  • Utilities fell 5.6% in Dec. after rising 1% in Nov.
  • Mining rose 1.3% in Dec. after falling 0.2% in Nov.

Capacity utilization fell to 77% from 77.4% in Nov., revised up from 77.3%.

Manufacturing actually surprised to the upside in December (rising 0.2% MoM vs -0.1% exp), but year-over-year saw a 1.3% contraction…

Source: Bloomberg

And of course, the Dow Jones INDUSTRIAL Average continues to soar despite INDUSTRIAL Production remaining relatively stagnant…

Source: Bloomberg

And that’s what The Fed is for.

end

Housing starts soar due to cheap money

(zerohedge)

Housing Starts Soar To Highest Since 2006 As Permits Plunge

Following October and November’s bounce in starts and permits, and despite solid sales and mortgage application data, analysts expected a mixed picture for housing data today (with growth in starts slowing and permits shrinking).

However, the data was extreme to say the least with Housing Starts soaring 16.9% MoM (highest since Oct 2016) and Building Permits shrank 3.9% MoM (worse than the -1.5% exp).

Source: Bloomberg

This pushed Starts to their highest since Dec 2006, but permits declined to weakest since September.

Source: Bloomberg

All four regions posted a gain in starts, with the Midwest, South and West showing the best pace since 2006. Starts in the Northeast were the highest since August.

Under the hood, Starts were dominated by a 32% surge in multi-family units (though single-family starts rose 11.2% MoM)…

Multi-family Starts soared 75% YoY…

But, the more forward-looking permits disappointed…

Source: Bloomberg

…as multi-family permits plunged 11.1% (single-family -0.5% MoM)…

Even so, the strong overall reading on starts corroborates a jump in developers’ confidence. U.S. homebuilder sentiment posted the highest back-to-back readings since 1999 in December and January amid a jump in prospective buyers and a bump in the sales outlook.

end

More troubles for Boeing as another software issue surfaces

(zerohedge)

Boeing Shares Slide On Reports Of New 737 MAX Software Issue

Boeing shares were hit early on following reports that the Air Force’s top military officer has sent Boeing Co.’s new CEO a blunt reminder that the ill-fated 737 Max passenger jet isn’t the only troubled project he has to rescue. There’s also the company’s failure to provide a combat-ready refueling tanker, nine years after Boeing won a competition for the $44 billion project.

“We require your attention and improved focus on the KC-46” tanker, General David Goldfein, the Air Force chief of staff, warned in a letter four days before Dave Calhoun took over as chief executive officer of the company.

“The Air Force continues to accept deliveries of a tanker incapable of performing its primary operational mission.”

But things just got even worse on reports that Boeing has found another software issue with the 737ABC News’ David Kerley reports that during testing audit last weekend the 737’s two flight computers weren’t talking to each other at startup. It is unclear how long the fix will take, but will be done as other return to service work is conducted.

Boeing tells CNBC that it is “making necessary updates and working with the FAA on submission of this change, and keeping our customers and suppliers informed.”

 

But that was enough to send the stock down once again…

Leaving Boeing back near crucial support…

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Now the Dept of Justice is beginning a 2nd probe into Comey’s history of leaking classified intelligence.

(zerohedge)

DoJ Begins Second Probe Into Comey’s History Of Leaking Classified Intel

The New York Times just published a bombshell report that’s faintly reminiscent of the scoops that the Liberal paper of record used to publish during the spring and summer of 2017, when the Mueller probe was in its infancy.

Except this time, instead of the the leak focusing on alleged wrongdoing by President Trump and his inner circle, the NYT is focusing on former FBI Director James Comey, who has increasingly been taken to task by the mainstream press in recent months for his botched handling of both the Clinton investigation and the origins of the probe in Russian interference (remember that?).

According to veteran NYT reporter Adam Goldman (a reporter who won a Pulitzer in 2018 for his work bolstering the Russian interference narrative), federal prosecutors have launched an investigation into an earlier incident of leaking by former FBI Director James Comey.

This leak, which involves a classified information about Russian intelligence, allegedly surfaced in the Washington Post and NYT some time during 2017.

A report published in September by the DoJ’s inspector general found that the fired FBI Director James Comey leaked sensitive law enforcement material in the Trump-Russia investigation. Doing so set a “dangerous example” for the bureau’s other employees, Inspector General Michael Horowitz wrote. Comey’s former No. 2 man, Andrew McCabe, was also fired for leaking, and is also under investigation.

Whatever this document was (the NYT claims it was also mentioned in a book by James Stewart published last fall), it apparently played a key role in Comey’s decision to cut the DoJ out of his announcement that the FBI wouldn’t be pursuing charges against Hillary Clinton in the email scandal. Furthermore, it was allegedly obtained by Dutch Intelligence operatives, before being handed over to the US. The NYT says the document was “one of the key factors” that drove Comey’s decision to give Hillary a pass.

The latest investigation involves material that Dutch intelligence operatives siphoned off Russian computers and provided to the United States government. The information included a Russian analysis of what appeared to be an email exchange during the 2016 presidential campaign between Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Democrat of Florida who was also the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee at the time, and Leonard Benardo, an official with the Open Society Foundations, a democracy-promoting organization whose founder, George Soros, has long been a target of the far right.

In the email, Ms. Wasserman Schultz suggested that then-Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch would make sure that Mrs. Clinton would not be prosecuted in the email case. Both Ms. Wasserman Schultz and Mr. Benardo have denied being in contact, suggesting the document was meant to be Russian disinformation.

That document was one of the key factors that drove Mr. Comey to hold a news conference in July 2016 announcing that investigators would recommend no charges against Mrs. Clinton. Typically, senior Justice Department officials would decide how to proceed in such a high-profile case, but Mr. Comey was concerned that if Ms. Lynch played a central role in deciding whether to charge Mrs. Clinton, Russia could leak the email.

Of course, the NYT suggests that the investigation might be politically motivated, but offers no other evidence to support this claim than the “suspicious” timing (per NYT, the DoJ typically doesn’t investigate years-old leaks).

The timing of the investigation could raise questions about whether it was motivated at least in part by politics. Prosecutors and F.B.I. agents typically investigate leaks of classified information around the time they appear in the news media, not years later. And the inquiry is the latest politically sensitive matter undertaken by the United States attorney’s office in Washington, which is also conducting an investigation of Mr. Comey’s former deputy, Andrew G. McCabe, that has been plagued by problems.

Law enforcement officials are scrutinizing at least two news articles about the F.B.I. and Mr. Comey, published in The New York Times and The Washington Post in 2017, that mentioned the Russian government document, according to the people familiar with the investigation. Hackers working for Dutch intelligence officials obtained the document and provided it to the F.B.I., and both its existence and the collection of it were highly classified secrets, the people said.

The document played a key role in Mr. Comey’s decision to sideline the Justice Department and announce in July 2016 that the F.B.I. would not recommend that Hillary Clinton face charges in her use of a private email server to conduct government business while secretary of state.

It’s believed that the investigation began in recent months, but it’s unclear whether a grand jury has been impaneled, or how many witness have been interviewed.

Comey has already been investigated by federal prosecutors in NY for leaking: He infamously turned over a memo to personal friend Daniel Richman with the explicit intention of getting it to an NYT reporter. That document was later determined to be classified, though prosecutors declined to charge Comey (and instead let the IG handle it).

But what this probe shows is that Comey has a history of leaking that isn’t Trump-specific. The Clinton email investigation began long before Trump secured the Republican nomination.

It could be the straw that finally wrecks whatever is left of Comey’s credibility in the eyes of the liberal press.

end

Alan Dershowitz and Ken Starr has been added to Trump’s dream team

(zerohedge)

Alan Dershowitz, Ken Starr Join Trump’s Impeachment Defense

As President Trump gears up for his big day in court the Senate on Tuesday, CNN reports that he is adding three more lawyers to his impeachment defense team.

The new lawyers include Harvard Law professor emeritus Alan Dershowitz, Clinton-era special prosecutor Ken Starr and Robert Ray, Starr’s successor at the Office of Independent Counsel during the Clinton administration.

They will join a team led by White House counsel Pat Cipollone (the successor to Don McGahn) and external attorney Jay Sekulow, who also was a key player on the team of lawyers that represented Trump during the Mueller probe. Both Sekulow and Cipollone are still expected to deliver statement’s on Trump’s behalf from the Senate floor after the trial opens on Tuesday.

Alan Dershowitz

Some of the new additions have been rumored since shortly before the House voted to impeach the president last month.

Dershowitz confirmed the news – or at least confirmed that he would be joining the team – in a series of tweets:

Alan Dershowitz

@AlanDersh

STATEMENT REGARDING PROFESSOR DERSHOWITZ’S ROLE IN THE SENATE TRIAL – Professor Dershowitz will present oral arguments at the Senate trial to address the constitutional arguments against impeachment and removal. (1of 2)

1,098 people are talking about this

Alan Dershowitz

@AlanDersh

(2 of 3) While Professor Dershowitz is non partisan when it comes to the constitution—he opposed the impeachment of President Bill Clinton and voted for Hillary Clinton— he believes the issues at stake go to the heart of our enduring Constitution.

362 people are talking about this

Alan Dershowitz

@AlanDersh

(3of 3) He is participating in this impeachment trial to defend the integrity of the Constitution and to prevent the creation of a dangerous constitutional precedent.

416 people are talking about this

As we explained yesterday, Dems and Republicans are still battling over whether to subpoena witnesses and explore additional evidence in the trial (the Dems’ position) or to wrap up the proceedings without calling witnesses (the White House position). Whatever happens, it’s extremely unlikely that President Trump will be impeached.

Dershowitz has been one of the most outspoken critics of the Democrats’ impeachment strategy. In several op-eds written for the Hill and the Gatestone Institute, Dershowitz condemned the impeachment push as a political ‘weapon’ being used against the president to try and bolster the Dems’ position heading into November.

For his support, Trump invited Dershowitz to the White House in December to speak at a Hanukkah event.

Of course, opinion polls suggest that despite all of the effort the Dems have squandered on impeachment, public approval of the president is little-changed.

Proceedings are expected to start on Tuesday, after the long holiday weekend.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Pelosi on Impeachment Process: It’s Not a Question of “Proof” It’s About “Allegations”

“It’s not a question of proof, it says what allegations have been made and that has to be subjected to scrutiny as to how we go forward, but it should not be ignored in the context of other events that could substantiate some of that,” said Pelosi…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/01/pelosi-on-impeachment-process-its-not-a-question-of-proof-its-about-allegations-video/

Sen. Mitch McConnell: Yesterday, the Speaker celebrated impeachment with souvenir pens, bearing her own golden signature, brought in on silver platters. The House’s partisan process distilled into one last perfect visual. Not solemn or serious. A transparently political exercise from beginning to end.

    Democrats’ impeachment has been nakedly partisan from the beginning. Pelosi admits it was in the making years before events with Ukraine. Schumer says that whatever happens, if it helps him politically, it’s a “win-win.” They are playing political games with the Constitution.

@thehill: Sen. Mitch McConnell: “The Speaker distributed souvenir pens, souvenir pens to her own colleagues emblazoned with her golden signature that literally came in on silver platters. The pens literally came in on silver platters. Golden pens on silver platters.”

@MariaBartiromo: These are the pens Nancy Pelosi used to sign the articles & she gave them out to colleagues.  Wow they look like bullet cases.  https://twitter.com/MariaBartiromo/status/1217791738754015232

@ByronYork: Pelosi: AG Barr is ‘rogue,’ part of ‘the president’s henchmen.’ Full quote: ‘Does anybody think that the rogue attorney general is going to appoint a special prosecutor? No, because he is implicated in all of this. This is an example of all of the president’s henchmen.’

Elizabeth Harrington @LizRNC: During the Clinton impeachment, the House sent over 18 boxes of evidence.  This impeachment sham?   Democrats sent over a “very thin notebook

OAN’s @JackPosobiec: Did You Know: The Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the Obama Administration violated federal law in 44 separate instances; Clinton lost 31, Bush 30 And none of those were impeachable offenses

 

NYT: Justice Dept. Investigating Years-Old Leaks and Appears Focused on Comey

Federal prosecutors in Washington are investigating a years-old leak of classified information about a Russian intelligence document, and they appear to be focusing on whether the former F.B.I. director James B. Comey illegally provided details to reporters, according to people familiar with the inquiry…

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/us/politics/leak-investigation-james-comey.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

 

Top Democrat Asks FBI to Refuse to Cooperate With GOP Senators’ Ukraine Investigation

In a letter obtained by The Daily Beast, Sen. Wyden urges the bureau to deny two Senate Republicans’ requests for materials from an ex-DNC consultant… [Isn’t this obstruction of justice?]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-democrat-sen-wyden-asks-fbi-to-refuse-to-cooperate-with-grassleys-ukraine-investigation

 

Epstein Had Burst Capillaries in Eyeballs, Indicating He Was Strangled, Forensic Pathologist Says

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/01/epstein-had-burst-capillaries-in-eyeballs-indicating-he-was-strangled-forensic-pathologist-says/

 end

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

 

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