JAN 16//IMPEACHMENT TRIAL BEGINS TODAY//GOLD DOWN $3.00 TO $1550.60//SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TO $17.94//COMEX GOLD WITNESSES ANOTHER RECORD AT 798,000 PLUS CONTRACTS//TRUMP THREATENED EUROPE WITH A 25% AUTO TARIFF IF THEY DID NOT CALL ON IRAN FOR BREACH OF ITS TERMS//TURKISH JETS VIOLATE GREEK AIRSPACE 91 TIMES YESTERDAY///TRUMP GOING AFTER MR BLOOMBERG AND THE FRAUDULENT HFT TRADING//ALL FORMS OF USA FREIGHT DOWN BADLY//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1550.60 DOWN $3.00    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.94 DOWN 2 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

Gold :  $1553.50

 

silver:  $17.95

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  0/0

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR 0 OZ (0.00000 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2540 NOTICES FOR 254000 OZ  (7.90046 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 483 for  2,015,000 oz

 

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8738 DOWN $101 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8744 DOWN $74

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1825 CONTRACTS FROM 234,639 UP TO 236,474 WITH OUR LARGE 21 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  326 AND MAY: 0 AND DEC: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  326 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 326 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 326 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.630 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 21 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2.03     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 21 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 2151 CONTRACTS. OR 10.755 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

15,309 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,309 CONTRACTS) OR 76.54 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1392 CONTRACTS OR 6.958 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  76.54 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.93% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          76.54   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 76.54 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1825, WITH THE  21 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /WEDNESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 326 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 2151 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 326 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1825 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 21 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.96 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.182 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 169% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 2,030,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2658 CONTRACTS TO A NEW RECORD OF 799,541 (SET JAN 16/2016) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS NEW  RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE GOOD RISE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH A STRONG GAIN OF $9.55 IN PRICING  ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// / 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 11,380 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  9238 CONTRACTS; MARCH 100 APRIL: 1942; FEB. 100 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 799,541,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,038 CONTRACTS: 2658 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 11,380 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 14,038 CONTRACTS OR 1,497,200 OZ OR 46.57 TONNES.  WEDNESDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $9.55 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 43.68  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $9.55) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (43.68 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 95,648 CONTRACTS OR 9,564,800 oz OR 297.50 TONNES (11 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8659 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 297.50 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 297.50/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.38% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     297.50  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 297.50 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2658 WITH THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK WEDNESDAY($9.55)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,380 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,380 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 14,038 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11380 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2658 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 43.66 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.55 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING//RAID// AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY

 

THE BOYS MUST HAVE FOUND RELIGION: 

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF: 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

 

JAN 16/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 878.32 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY

THE CROOKS ARE AT IT AGAIN:

A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ WITH A TINY 2 CENT LOSS

 

 

JAN 16/INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.857 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1825 CONTRACTS from 234,639 DOWN TO 236,474 AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 326

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  326:  AND MAY: 0; DEC: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 326 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1825  CONTRACTS TO THE 326 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 2151 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.755 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 2.03 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 21 CENT  GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 326 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.96 POINTS OR 0.52%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 109.45 POINTS OR 0.33%   /The Nikkei closed UP 16.55 POINTS OR 0.07%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .67%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8806 /Oil UP TO 57.67 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8806 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8797 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

CHINA/USA

The trade deal under a microscope courtesy of Michael Every

(Michael Every)

ii)And now Bill Blain’s assessment as to the trade agreement…have we reached a Munich 1938 moment?

(courtesy Bill Blain)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Europe/USA

This is big: Trump threatened Europe with a huge 25% auto tariffs if it did not declare Iran in breach of the nuclear deal

(zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY
BDI warns that the German industry is stuck in recession with no signs of  bottoming.  And this is happening with the Euro lower than it would be if Germany uses the Mark instead of the Euro
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY/GREECE

Wow!! Turkish jets violate Greek airspace 91 times. This is getting ridiculous

(zerohedge)

ii)UKRAINE
This is getting exciting..The Ukraine launches a criminal probe into the illegal surveillance of American Ambassador Yovonavitch as she without a doubt tried to backstab Trump..
(zerohedge)

iii)TURKEY

Fascinating!! Erdogan lowers borrowing costs and now their interest rate in real terms is negative if you account for inflation.
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Jan writes that he suspects China’s official reserves are double what they say they have.  It has been my contention and many others that China has accumulated overt 20,000 tonnes.  The hiding of these reserves allows China to accumulate more of the metal.

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs..formerly writing under the pseudo..  Koos Jansen)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)Boeing now loses its delivery crown to Airbus

(zerohedge)

ii)Trump celebrates his China/USA trade deal victory.  Actually he destroyed China but also hurt citizens as they will still have to pay more for goods

(zerohedge)

iii)The Fed just let this “not QE” out of the bag.  They admit being forced to fuel asset bubbles in this latest Fed folly and this will continue for quite some time until they figure out how they will begin to remove assets from balance sheet which will be never!~!

(zerohedge)

iiii)This is important:  Wolf Richter notes that all forms of USA freight shipments plunge to levels equal to the 2009 –2011 crash(Wolf Richter)

v)Good for Trump..He is going after Bloomberg’s wealth by banning the lockup computers and that will hit the HFT revenues.  HFT plays a dominant role in the whacking of gold and silver

(zerohedge)

vi)The power of internet sales is playing havoc to retail giants.  They are now starting to flee Times Square which in days gone past, was a foot traffic mecca.

(zerohedge)

vii)The Fed is now capping the amount of Treasury bills it is allowed to buy as part of QE 4

(zerohedge)
viii)Michael Snyder on this very important topic:  7 major earth changes happening right before our eyes(Michael Snyder)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)The Senate trial begins today

(zerohedge)

ii)This will embolden the Democrats as the GAO, the Federal Watchdog, states that the Trump administration withheld assistance to Ukraine.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2658 CONTRACTS TO 799,541(SET JAN 16/2020) AND ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $9.55 IN GOLD PRICING // WEDNESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,380 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 9258′; MARCH 100 AND APRIL: 1942,  FEB : 100 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 11,380 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG AND  CRIMINALLY SIZED 14,038 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,380 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 2658 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERUNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $9.55). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED  14,038 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  14,038 CONTRACTS OR 1,403,800 OZ OR 43.66 TONNES.  

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  799,541 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 79.95 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,486 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,486/2200 OR 113.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 32 open interest left to be served upon, for a GAIN of 3 contracts.   We had 1 notices served up on yesterday so we surprisingly gained another 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF 13,769 in contracts DOWN to 405,299.  

March received another 203 contracts to stand at an open interest of, 1179.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 16,070 contacts up to 264,233 oi contracts.

We had 0 open interest notices served upon today for nil oz

the front month of February is not contracting enough (WITH RESPECT TO OI) and thus it seems we will have another strong amount of gold standing for delivery

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY STRONG SIZED 1825 CONTRACTS FROM 234,639 UP TO 236,474 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR HUGE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITHA STRONG 21 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a LOSS of 20 contracts TO  3. We had 20 notices served on yesterday, so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!! Our bankers have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a LOSS of 28 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  454.  March is a very active month and here we witness a GAIN of 1389 contracts UP to 178,139

 

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 273,064 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY365,706 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 16/2020

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
8,069.651 oz
BRINKS
LOOMIS
26 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 nil OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
32 contracts
(3200 oz)
0.09953 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2540 notices
254,000 OZ
7.90046 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 2 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into

everybody else: 0

 

total deposits:  0  oz

 

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 32.151 oz   or 1 kilobar

ii) out of Loomis: 8037.500 oz   25 kilobars

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 8069.651  oz  26 kilobars

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  ADDED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2540) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (32 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 257,200 OZ OR 8.0000 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2540 x 100 oz)  + (32)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 257,200 oz standing OR 8.000 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED 4 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 400 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.017 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.000 TONNES

 

total: 129.891 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 129.891  tonnes

 

Thus:

129.891 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 110.637 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.017 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,334,232.623 oz or  41.50 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 109,365.15 oz (34.017 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settle upon:  240,581.146 oz  ( 7.4668    TONNES)//
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  109,365.15  (34.017 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,699,474.809 oz 270.590 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 16/2020
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,210,001.893 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
 15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  4125 contracts

20,625,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Delaware: 1050.815  oz

ii) Out of CNT: 608,525.348 oz

iii) Out of Scotia:  600, 425.720  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 1,210,001.883   oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) out of Brinks:  607,687.200 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks

 

 

total dealer silver:  84.685 million

total dealer + customer silver:  319.449 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 403 x 5,000 oz =2,015,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (3) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 403 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (3- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals 2,030,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL nil OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  57,786 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 78,719 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 78,719 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 393 million  OZ   56.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.39% ((JAN 16/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.06% to NAV (JAN 16/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.39%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.45 TRADING 14.92///DISCOUNT  3,40

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

 

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JAN 16/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 878.32 tonnes

*IN LAST 743 TRADING DAYS: 59.13 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 643 TRADING DAYS: A NET 107.92. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

 

 

JAN 16.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

354.857 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.80/ and libor 6 month duration 1.84

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.81%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.14

end

 

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Why Do Prudent Indians Diversify Into Gold?

 Indians diversify into gold coins, bars and jewellery because it never fails them in an emergency

 Indians are simply very prudent and practical and believe in channeling some of their wealth and saving into physical gold

◆ “A woman’s gold is both her personal treasure and plays a functional role as the family’s financial buffer” – Richard Davies

◆ Gold is an ‘obsession’ for very few people in the world today, including Indians, and most owners simply view it as a vital form of insurance in an uncertain world

via Live Mint:

Mint takes a look at India’s love for gold

The price of gold crossed ₹40,000 per 10g last week. Since the beginning of this fiscal, gold prices have surged by around 25%, driving down gold imports by a fifth during the same period. Mint takes a look at India’s love for gold.

By how much have gold imports reduced?

Between April and November, India imported 533,376kg of gold, around 20.3% less than 669,339kg imported during the same period in 2018. This is hardly surprising since gold has turned costlier this fiscal. Between April and November, the average price of gold was ₹35,337 per 10g, against ₹30,689 during the same period a year ago. Since November, prices have rallied higher due to Iran-US tensions. Over and above this, the easy money policy of the US Federal Reserve has made a comeback. The Fed has resumed printing money in order to drive down interest rates.

This has pushed up gold prices as well.

What explains the love Indians have for gold?

Since very little gold is produced in India, almost all of the metal consumed is imported. Over the years, Indians have continued to love gold. In FY19, India imported 983,000kg of gold, the highest since FY14. A major reason for our love for gold remains tradition. But there is more to it than just that. As Richard Davies writes in Extreme Economies, “Gold also acts as a kind of informal insurance mechanism.” He writes this in the context of Aceh, a semi-autonomous province of Indonesia, and how survivors of the 2004 Asian tsunami rebuilt their lives using the gold they had on their bodies.

How did gold help in the aftermath of the tsunami?

As Davies writes: “While some lost gold in the disaster, I met many survivors who were able to sell jewellery they were wearing… Wearing a gold bangle is like having enough cash on your wrist to employ a builder for a year… This traditional form of finance insulated Aceh and provided its entrepreneurs with rapid access to cash.”

How is this linked to India’s love for gold?

Like in Aceh, India also has a very strong informal system of exchange where gold can be rapidly turned into cash, especially in times of emergency. As Davies writes again in the context of Aceh: “In an economy buffeted by the ups and downs of farming and fishing, the people are used to buying gold after bumper harvests or fishing seasons and selling it after lean ones.” This applies as much to India as it does to Aceh, with a bulk of the country’s workforce still dependent on agriculture for a living.

What do economists make of this system?

Economists, especially those working in the West, are used to banks and a formal financial system being in place and working well, even during emergencies. Buying and holding on to gold doesn’t fit into their way of doing things.

But as Davies puts it, “A woman’s gold is both her personal treasure and plays a functional role as the family’s financial buffer.” That is the long and the short of India’s love for gold.

Vivek Kaul is an economist and the author of the Easy Money trilogy.


GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)
15-Jan-20 1551.90 1549.00, 1194.65 1189.01 & 1394.23 1389.14
14-Jan-20 1544.95 1545.10, 1190.69 1188.49 & 1387.83 1389.35
13-Jan-20 1550.35 1549.90, 1194.54 1192.96 & 1394.85 1393.52
10-Jan-20 1548.80 1553.60, 1185.45 1189.28 & 1395.78 1399.64
09-Jan-20 1547.85 1550.75, 1186.89 1188.49 & 1393.99 1396.14
08-Jan-20 1582.85 1571.95, 1206.13 1197.35 & 1421.87 1412.87
07-Jan-20 1566.50 1567.85, 1190.85 1197.05 & 1402.80 1406.52
06-Jan-20 1576.85 1573.10, 1198.09 1197.29 & 1408.44 1406.51
03-Jan-20 1547.40 1548.75, 1182.37 1184.48 & 1389.57 1387.99

Is Your Gold and Silver Bullion S.A.F.E. ?
Segregated, Actionable, Flexible and what are the total Expenses?
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Mark O’Byrne

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Jan writes that he suspects China’s official reserves are double what they say they have.  It has been my contention and many others that China has accumulated overt 20,000 tonnes.  The hiding of these reserves allows China to accumulate more of the metal.

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs..formerly writing under the pseudo..  Koos Jansen)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Will China’s hoarding cause gold’s price to rise?

 Section: 

10:29p ET Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

China’s government gold reserve is probably twice as large as the nearly 2,000 tonnes officially reported, Voima Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes today, even as the country is storing another 20,000 tonnes among its people.

This underreporting, Nieuwenhuijs writes, allowed China to accumulate gold at lower prices.

… 

Nieuwenhuijs believes that inflation and debt devaluation in the West and the tightness of gold supplies there may cause gold prices to rise faster than generally expected.

Nieuwenhuijs’ analysis is headlined “China’s Gold Hoarding: Will It Cause the Price of Gold to Rise?” and it’s posted at Voima Gold here:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/chinas-gold-hoarding-will-it-cause-the…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine

Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.

Here’s what the bottles look like:

http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg

Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:

http://www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg

GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?

To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mining Investment Asia
InterContinental Hotel, Singapore
Tuesday-Thursday, March 17-19, 2020
https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Conrad Hotel, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Wednesday, March 31-April 1, 2020
https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

iii) Other physical stories:

JJohnson on the gold and silver comex;

Comex Gold’s Open Interest Breaks Into New Territory!

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,

Gold is positive in the early morning with the trade at $1,556.20, up $2.20 after reaching $1,558.20 with the low at $1,551.50. Silver is following, with some irony, as we see the increase equaled in the numeric, with the trade up 2.2 cents at $18.015 after reaching $18.055 early last night with the low at $17.875. The US Dollar is still nose-bleeding from its lofty height with the trade at 96.83 down 13 points and close to the low at 96.815 with the high at 97.015. Of course all of this happening already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and still 2 days after Veritas released Bernie Sander’s employment of insane people, with zero response from the self-declared socialist.

We have a changeup that occurred in one of our Emerging Markets Currencies we watch, which should be observed, for the future events in the primaries. Venezuela’s currency now holds Gold’s value at 15,542.55 Bolivar proving a gain of 38.95 overnight with Silver at 179.925 Bolivar showing a gain of 1.748. In Argentina, the Peso has Gold priced at 93,147.16 gaining 10.85 over the past 24 hours with Silver at 1,078.57 A-Peso’s proving a gain of 8.18. In Turkey, where they lowered interest rates to below zero, Gold is now trading at 9,109.82 T-Lira, showing a loss of 28.13 overnight with Silver at 105.464 T-Lira showing a gain of 0.447.

January Silver’s Delivery Demands now show a count of 3 fully paid for contracts still up on the board telling us very little except that 20 contracts got settled out with receipts given here or sent over the London. Yesterday’s trading range still posted a “zero” at the close yet, by the end of the day, 4 contracts traded. If I am to use Comex logic, these trades were spreads (into/out?) in which no prices are needed to be given, which to me is absolute bullshit but it falls on the deaf ears of the defenders of the exchange. We hope the DOJ is looking into the entire aspect of the criminal element; warehouse numbers, receipts, spreads, Algo controls (of these spreads), or the fact that a number of these employees of the element were not NFA registered brokers. So far today, a Volume of 6 is posted up on the Comex with a trading range of $17.95 and $17.94. Let us observe the entire day’s futures trade stay below the spot price! Please keep those purchases coming oh honored Resolutes!

Silver and Gold’s Overall Open Interest is the “Tell” we have been talking about for years as the Open Interest IS the “paper in the markets” that are only backed by the exchange’s good faith but not the physicals. When the physicals run dry, the price will break free as the demands for physicals get forced upon the COMEX, as manufacturers will demand the product, by purchasing the physicals at any cost in order to stay in business. It is the exchanges duty to make good on the trade. My hope is that one of these buyers of physical takes the exchange to court this time, that is “if” they try to make it illegal the buying of physicals. Jim Sinclair brought this subject up in one of the weekend audio reports, when he stated he was surprised the Hunts didn’t do it, when they could have.

Silver’s Overall Open Interest gained more with the count now at 236,496 Overnighters proving a gain of 945 more shorts in order to stay the price. That’s nothing compared to the Open Interest in Gold which is now at a “New Life of Contract Paper High” of 800,475 Overnighter’s proving an additional 2,344 more shorts had to be added in order to stay the price. And they’re doing this while the German population is still standing in line buying Precious Metals with both hands!

So, the game goes on with the socialists vs. patriots here, interest rates going negative in another country (we’re heading there too), people standing in line to buy physicals, with the criminal element under glass, and the Open Interest in precious metals, telling us the shorts are worried. What can go wrong?

Please Please Please! Keep the attitude positive, keep that smile on your face and a positive attitude in the head no matter what, as always…

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8806/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8797   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 15.96 POINTS OR 0.52%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 109.45 POINTS OR 0.38%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 16.55 POINTS OR 0.07%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.13/Euro RISES TO 1.1165

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.97/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.67 and Brent: 64.09

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.22%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.38% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.44%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.39

3k Gold at $1555.55 silver at: 18.02   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 23/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.63

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.97 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9619 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0739 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.22%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.78% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.23%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8527..

S&P To Open Above 3,300 As Record Breaking Rally Returns Following Trade Deal Signing

Session Highlights (with NewsSquawk):

  • S&P futures are above 3,300 with European equities little changed at present, as newsflow has slowed since the Phase One signing
  • Chinese VP Liu He says it is unwise to rush into the Phase Two negotiations, stating Beijing has little interest in immediately doing so
  • US Senate Majority Leader McConnell said the impeachment trial will begin on Tuesday and the Senate will complete USMCA trade deal today
  • USD is slightly softer as antipodeans benefit on the trade deal, other G10 currencies little changed/mixed at present

World stocks resumed their rally, trading at record highs on Thursday, after the United States and China signed the first phase of an agreement to end their 18-month trade war. The centerpiece of the truce is a pledge by China to purchase at least an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. farm products and other goods and services over two years, over a baseline of $186 billion in purchases in 2017  although it remains unclear how it can do so without disrupting global supply chains, and without any firm commitments to do so.

As usual there were many hot takes, ranging from the skeptical to the optimistic and everything in between:

  • “There’s no question from a psychological viewpoint it’s a big relief for the market,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. “There are still CEOs that are dubious, but this might help capital investments, and that was the biggest missing link to the economy over the last few years.”
  • “We believe the agreement underpins a positive outlook for risk assets, especially emerging-market stocks,” said Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management. “But it is also important for investors to understand the limitations of the deal. So we see the deal as representing a partial calming rather than an end to trade tensions.”
  • “While the trade deal has provided a relief, there wasn’t any positive surprises for markets. For shares to rise further, we need more evidences of improvement in the real economy and earnings,” said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.

Trump also said he would remove all U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports as soon as the two countries complete the Phase 2 trade agreement, on which negotiations will start soon.

So perhaps in anticipation of “Phase 2 optimism”, following a modest hiccup as US stocks dipped in the immediate aftermath of the signing, the global rally has returned after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 29,000 for the first time.

 

S&P500 futures rebounded overnight, and pointed to an open above 3,300 for the cash index.

 

Nasdaq 100 futures also continued their tremendous ascent after tech bellwether Taiwan Semiconductor projected quarterly revenue well above analysts’ estimates. Morgan Stanley climbed in early trading after results beat expectations. Bank of New York Mellon slipped after matching estimates.

MSCI’s broadest index of world stocks rising 0.1% on Thursday. London, Frankfurt, Paris helped Europe start stronger, after China’s biggest stocks dipped overnight. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index swung between gains and losses after a mixed session in Asia.

 

Earlier in the session, Asia shares traded close to their highest level since June 2018 although markets in the region were mixed, with South Korea and Australia rising – the S&P/ASX 200 Index extended a record – while Japan’s Topix and the Shanghai Composite Index were lower. The trade deal signed Wednesday commits China to do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities, while outlining a $200 billion spending spree to try to close its trade imbalance with the U.S.

That said, market participants remain cautious about U.S.-China relations in future. While the agreement provides “a narrow and temporary relief, geopolitical pressure will continue and take on other forms, notably in the technology and financial realm,” Andy Wong, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management wrote in an email. “Asia’s tech supply chain could see increased pressure on this front.” Technology shares reversed an earlier decline. The region’s chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. announced a stronger-than-expected sales outlook for the first quarter after the market closed, underscoring hopes that the rollout of fifth-generation-enabled smartphones in 2020 will galvanize growth for Apple Inc.’s main chipmaker.

Even as stocks hit new all time highs, bond yields dropped as a boost from the trade deal failed to offset low U.S. producer price data, which highlighted persistently low inflationary pressure. The price index rose less than expected in December to cap 2019 with rise of 1.3%, the lowest since 2015.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields slipped to one-week low of 1.780% compared with a high of 1.900% last Thursday and last stood at 1.80%. Most euro zone bond yields were little changed, with German Bund yields just below two-week highs. The UK’s 10-year gilt was yield near a two-and-a-half-month low at 0.65% on the talk of rate cuts.

In FX, the dollar slipped against its G-10 peers yet was little changed as measured by the Bloomberg Spot Index as ranges are tight amid a thin data calendar out of Europe. The euro was supported through options demand while a short squeeze in sterling unfolds, and the Swiss franc held firm. It had reached its highest against the dollar in over a year and its highest against the euro in almost three years after the United States added Switzerland to its watchlist of currency manipulators. Washington’s decision led traders to think it will become harder for the Swiss National Bank to intervene to weaken the franc in the future. The Swiss currency last stood at 0.9626 franc per dollar, near Wednesday’s high of 0.9631. Finally, the Chinese yuan was just below the five-and-a-half-month high it touched earlier this week after Washington dropped its currency manipulator label for China.

In commodities, oil rose from Wednesday’s six-week low, amid data showing big increases in U.S. refined products and hopes for more Chinese purchases of U.S. oil and gas. Brent crude futures rose 0.7% to $64.45 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.73% to $58.23 per barrel. Gold was little changed at $1,555 an ounce.

Looking at the day ahead, the highlight in terms of data comes this afternoon with the December retail sales report in the US. Also due out is the January Philly Fed index, December import price index, jobless claims, November business inventories and January NAHB housing market index prints. In Europe we got the final December CPI revisions in Germany while in the UK the BoE bank liabilities and credit conditions survey will be released. Away from that it’s worth keeping an eye on the ECB minutes today before the ECB’s Lagarde speaks in Frankfurt this afternoon. Earnings highlights include Morgan Stanley, which smashed FICC trading expectations, and CSX.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,302.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 420.39
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 173.94
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 570.76
  • Nikkei up 0.07% to 23,933.13
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,728.72
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 28,883.04
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,074.08
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 41,930.99
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,041.78
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,248.05
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,555.01
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.03% to 97.20
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to -0.214%
  • Euro up 0.03% to $1.1153
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $64.43/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.23%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.447%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Bank of England urged financial businesses to accelerate their transition away from Libor. Market makers will be encouraged to shift pound-denominated interest-rate swaps on March 2 from Libor to its replacement, the Sterling Overnight Index Average, the central bank said
  • The Federal Reserve had a little help from its friends in preventing a year-end squeeze in funding markets. A $276 billion surge in the use of so-called sponsored repo from money market funds in December helped banks open their lending taps and add to the $256 billion in year-end liquidity provided by the Fed. Overall usage of the once-niche facility peaked at $524 billion during the month, ensuring September’s funding turmoil had little chance of repeating.
  • China’s promise to buy nearly $95 billion of additional U.S. commodities means that the state-run giants that dominate imports may be asked to do national service and absorb losses to make good on Beijing’s pledge to purchase as much as $42 billion in American farm goods and about $52 billion in energy products. Private buyers may need more incentives
  • A former top official in India’s Finance Ministry claims the government is understating the fiscal deficit, raising questions about the figures weeks before the annual budget is due to be released
  • Oil supplies from Iraq, the Middle East’s second-biggest producer, are “potentially vulnerable” amid rising political risks in the country and the broader region, the International Energy Agency warned
  • After spending an estimated $40 billion on gold in the past five years, Russia’s central bank is starting to rein in spending. It bought 149 tons of gold in the first 11 months of 2019, 44% less than the year before. Annual purchases are expected to be the lowest in six years
  • China brought forward the planned opening of its $21 trillion capital market by eight months, swinging the door open for global investment banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher but with gains capped as the euphoria from the US-China Phase 1 trade deal signing, which had buoyed Wall St to record highs and the Emini S&P to an unprecedented 3300 level, began to wane amid some doubts concerning the implementation of the deal. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+0.7%) outperformed as it forayed above 7000 for the first time ever led by notable strength in tech and financials, while Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was indecisive and stalled ahead of 24k despite strong Machinery Orders which showed the first M/M expansion in 5 months, as well as its largest increase on record for the series. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) failed to take advantage of another substantial PBoC liquidity injection and the eased tensions from the US-China trade deal, as there were lingering doubts regarding China’s caveat of purchasing agricultural goods “based on market conditions”, while the unilateral dispute settlement mechanism which allows US to reimpose tariffs for non-compliance and doesn’t permit China to retaliate but instead can quit the agreement, fuelled some concerns on whether the deal will hold. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher and briefly reclaimed the 152.00 level with prices supported as the momentum in stocks began to wane and with the BoJ also in the market for JPY 350bln of JGBs in the belly.

Top Asian News

  • China Bonds Uninspired Even as Injections Top $100 Billion
  • Deutsche Bank-Led Group a Step Closer to Jindal India Deal
  • S&P Sees More Defaults in China in 2020 Amid Steep Maturity Wall
  • China Speeds Up Opening of Market to Investment Bank Giants

Overall a mixed and choppy session thus far in the European equity space [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%] following a rather tepid APAC handover, as markets digested the nitty-gritty of the Phase One deal and with Phase Two talks on the horizon. Major bourses are swinging between gains and losses with no clear direction thus far, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.5%) modestly underperforms regional peers amid unfavourable Sterling action coupled with losses in individual stocks. Sectors are also mixed and do not clearly reflect a specific risk sentiment; although, the energy sector leads the upside as oil prices crawl back from YTD lows. In terms of individual movers: Pearson (-9.8%) plumbed the depths following a profit warning and the announcement of the departure of its CFO. GlaxoSmithKline (-1.5%) extended on losses seen at the open following a negative broker move coupled with the rebuttal of reports that that there will be an IPO of its consumer JV with Pfizer. On the flip side, RWE (+2.0%) sees healthy gains after a German government spokesman said the Co. is to receive EUR 2.6bln compensation for higher electricity costs caused by a coal exit law which is to be drafted this month. Elsewhere Associated British Foods’ (+2.4%) shares remain supported by a lukewarm trading update in which the Co. reaffirmed guidance. Note, auto makers largely side-lined the Washington Post’s report that US President Trump issued a private warning to Germany, France and the UK that the US will impose a 25% tariff on European autos if Europe refused to initiate the dispute mechanism against Iran in the JCPOA deal, according to European sources.

Top European News

  • Merkel Spends Big to Kickstart Germany’s Stalled Coal Exit
  • Second-Biggest Diamond Ever Will Become Louis Vuitton Jewelry
  • Hungary Gets Boost in EU Court Spat Over Tobacco Tax Suspension
  • Putin’s Premier Pick Wins Backing Amid Overhaul Push

In FX, a rather underwhelming response to the official Phase One signing ceremony has left the Greenback languishing near or at new lows against most major counterparts and the DXY trying to defend the 97.000 level again within a 97.263-134 range. Technically, 97.105 and 97.091 supports from earlier in the month are still holding, but the Buck’s fate could ultimately lie with fundamentals and Thursday’s multiple US macro releases including retail sales for the festive period and more timely January Philly Fed survey.

  • NZD/AUD – Another marked swing in sentiment of change in fortunes down under, as the Kiwi benefits from a short squeeze and paring of oversold positions amidst a less dovish RBNZ rate call via ASB to extend gains above 0.6600 against its US peer towards 0.6650 and through resistance at 0.6620, while paring loss vs the Aussie from 1.0450+ to almost 1.0400. Meanwhile, Aud/Usd is still struggling to overcome 0.6920 after multiple attempts and eyeing Usd/Cnh-Cny moves in wake of the initial trade deal allied to PBoC fixings and policy action ahead of next week’s Chinese Lunar New Year break and Australian jobs data.
  • GBP/CHF/CAD/EUR – All firmer against the Buck, albeit marginally, as Pound pivots 1.3050 between 1.3025-65 parameters and fades just ahead of the 200 HMA (1.3067) after tripping stops at the aforementioned half round number, but not threatening more said to be poised between 1.3070-75. Elsewhere, the Franc remains firm across the board with Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf both hovering closer to 0.9625 and 1.0735 lows than 0.9650 and 1.0760 highs, even though the single currency is consolidating recent advances vs the Dollar around 1.1150 and more convincingly beyond the 200 DMA (1.1140). Similarly, the Loonie has advanced into a higher 1.3048-32 band vs its NA rival with some traction from comparative stability in crude prices.
  • JPY/SEK/NOK – Marginally bucking the overall trend, Usd/Jpy has rebounded from Wednesday’s lows to retest offers around 110.00 where a hefty 1.8 bn option expiries roll-off, while Eur/Sek is straddling 10.5500 following 2020 Swedish growth and inflation forecast downgrades by the Government and Eur/Nok is flitting either side of 9.8800 in wake of the latest Norges Bank credit survey revealing little change in loan demand.
  • EM – In keeping with no real rise in risk appetite post-US/China Phase One trade deal signing, most regional currencies are largely idling, the Try felt some tailwinds in the aftermath of the CBRT rate decision despite a deeper-than-forecast cut to its weekly repo rate, bringing it down to 11.25% from 12.00%, although some vendors were forecasting a 75bps cut – which would be in-line with the Central Bank’s action. The Lira may have derived strength given the slowing pace of the cuts (reductions since July 2019 have each been deeper than 100bps). Further, from an inflation perspective, the Bank also noted that inflation is judged to be broadly in line with the end of 2020 inflation projection. Whereas, in December it was seen that inflation is likely to materialise close to the lower bound of the October inflation projections. Usd/Try immediately fell to test 5.8500 to the downside vs. a pre-announcement level of ~5.8750, albeit the move did largely pare back, potentially on geopolitical developments after the Turkish President announced that troops will be deployed to Libya. Next up, Zar will be eyeing the SARB’s rate announcement from 13:00GMT after somewhat mixed SA gold and overall mining output data.

In commodities, the IEA Monthly Report founds that 2020 world oil demand growth estimate unchanged at 1.2mln BPD, due to subdued prices. Global oil demand increased by 955k BPD to 101.1mln BPD in October; supply in December decreased by 780k BPD due to Saudi Cuts. OPEC crude production fell in December by 180k BPD to 29.44mln BPD; Demand for OPEC crude to fall to 28.5mln BPD in H1 2020. Notes, even in the event OPEC adheres strictly to the output pact a strong global oil inventory build is likely in Q1

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%
    • Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%
    • Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 3.7, prior 0.3
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%; Import Price Index YoY, est. 0.5%, prior -1.3%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Export Price Index YoY, prior -1.3%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 218,000, prior 214,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.75m, prior 1.8m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 65.1
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. -0.15%, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 74, prior 76
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $32.5b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

US equities peaked for the day just around the start of the phase one signing press conference yesterday before fading into the close even if they did still hold In positive territory. The S&P 500 ultimately ended +0.19% and NASDAQ +0.08%. Just on the trade signing, there wasn’t much in the way of surprises. China is committed to cracking down on American intellectual property theft while also committing to spend $200bn to bridge the trade imbalance. The fade into the close for markets perhaps reflected some of the more contentious issues not being addressed such as commercial cyber theft or addressing China’s use of industrial subsidies. In more details, the Phase one deal says that China has to deliver an action plan within 30 days of the deal taking effect on how it intends to meet its commitments on intellectual property. So we will have to wait to see what follow through we get on this. On the enforcement mechanism, the agreement allows the US to move to punish China with tariffs or other measures within 90 days if officials decide it was breaking its promises.

Prior to the trade signing it was comments from White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow which seemed to initially propel markets to fresh highs. Speaking to CNBC, Kudlow said that “I am still running a process of Tax Cuts 2.0” and that a plan will be unveiled sometime later in the summer. Such a plan would require bi-partisan approval and will therefore be difficult (but not impossible) to agree.

Back to markets, where 10y Treasuries also nudged down another 3bps following a disappointing PPI report (more on that below) while the 2s10s curve flattened back towards 22bps. There were more substantial moves in Europe though with the big mover being Gilts where 10y yields rallied 6.7bps to 0.651% and the lowest since November. That followed a very soft CPI report which has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons for the BoE, with a cut this month now becoming more and more of a talking point. Elsewhere, 10y Bunds were -2.9bps lower with BTPs the only one to buck the trend, with yields sharply higher into the close to finish up 0.6bps on the day. That was despite an oversubscribed 30y auction, continuing the theme of strong demand for this staggering run of issuance we’re on.

This morning in Asia markets are mixed with Chinese bourses leading the declines with the CSI (-0.25%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.25%) both down. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (+0.02%) and Hang Seng (+0.01%) are trading flat but with the Kospi (+0.45%) being up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.14% and in commodities, soybean prices are down c. -0.27% likely due to China signalling that purchases would be based on demand, rather than a pre-set amount while crude oil prices (both WTI and Brent) are up c. +0.70% this morning. In other news, China’s Vice Premier Liu He said that the country’s 2019 growth is projected to be above 6%. China’s 2019 GDP figures are due to be released tomorrow.

Overnight, The Financial Times carried an interview with German Chancellor Angela Merkel which warned the EU that Brexit is a wake-up call and the EU must respond by upping its game and becoming more attractive. The interview also mentions that the US focus on Europe is declining and that its likely to remain the case under any president while sounding generally positive on the UK’s trade negotiations with the EU. On the Banking Union, Merkel said that Germany is still “slightly hesitant” on a banking union for Europe to go alongside its monetary union as it believes that every country first needs to reduce their own risks before risks can be mutualized. Also, as a reminder, DB’s Group Chief Economist David Folkerts-Landau wrote an op-ed in the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung last week, with the title “Brexit should be a wake-up call” and the English translation can be read here.

Back to yesterday, where there was some disappointment in the latest earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. That of course followed what were impressive results from JP Morgan and Citi. Share prices for Goldman and BofA declined -0.18% and -1.84% respectively, with the wider S&P banks index -1.81%. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that the House sent two articles of impeachment against Donald Trump to the Senate yesterday and the trial is expected to begin from Tuesday. With a two-third majority required to impeach this is highly likely to be defeated by the Republican controlled chamber.

In the EM world there wasplenty of focus on Russia yesterday following the news that Prime Minister Medvedev’s government had resigned, with President Putin later nominating Mikhail Mishustin as Medvedev’s successor. This followed Putin’s annual state-of-the-nation address where the highlights included proposed Constitutional change including a possible referendum that could allow Putin to move into a new role to maintain a high degree of power when his President term ends in 2024. Russian assets appeared non-fussed with the Ruble little changed and Russia’s main equity market up +0.09%. See our economists note on the news here for more.

In other news, Dow Jones reported yesterday that the White House will send to the Senate two nominations for the Fed’s Board of Governors soon. These nominations were announced by President Trump over six months ago and included economists Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller. The same newswire suggested that Shelton is “likely to face scrutiny from the Senate Banking Committee over her past advocacy for returning to a gold standard” as well as defending Trump for pressuring the Fed to lower rates.

Meanwhile, the data that was released yesterday was focused on the US where, much like the CPI report the day prior, PPI data for December also came in on the softer side. The headline reading of +0.1% mom was below consensus for +0.2% while the various core components include ex food, energy and trade also missed by one-tenth. In the details it was noted that the healthcare component slipped about 15bps in year over year terms which suggests a softer read through for core PCE. Elsewhere, the January Empire manufacturing reading improved 1.5pts to 4.8 (vs. 3.6 expected) – the highest since May last year – and with the details also mostly upbeat.

In Europe, as mentioned earlier the UK CPI report for December was soft, with the core reading dropping three-tenths to 1.4% yoy after expectations were for no change. That is the lowest print now since November 2016. So ,more ammunition for some of the doves in the MPC. In France, CPI was unrevised at +0.5% mom while the German economy was confirmed as growing +0.6% yoy in 2019, as expected. Finally Euro Area industrial production rose +0.2% mom in November, one-tenth lower than expected.

Looking at the day ahead, the highlight in terms of data comes this afternoon with the December retail sales report in the US. Also due out is the January Philly Fed index, December import price index, jobless claims, November business inventories and January NAHB housing market index prints. In Europe we’ll get the final December CPI revisions in Germany while in the UK the BoE bank liabilities and credit conditions survey will be released. Away from that it’s worth keeping an eye on the ECB minutes today before the ECB’s Lagarde speaks in Frankfurt this afternoon. Earnings highlights include Morgan Stanley and CSX.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.96 POINTS OR 0.52%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 109.45 POINTS OR 0.33%   /The Nikkei closed UP 16.55 POINTS OR 0.07%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .67%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8806 /Oil UP TO 57.67 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8806 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8797 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

The trade deal under a microscope courtesy of Michael Every

(Michael Every)

“Let’s Look What’s In The Trade Deal, And What Is Not”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

What’s the Deal

After a signing ceremony by US President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu at the White House the much-awaited details of the ‘Phase 1’ trade deal were finally released. While the S&P500 rose prior to the White House event, there were no major new aspects to the deal, so stock prices fell back again.

According to the document (Chapter 6) China shall ensure the purchase of an additional – on top of the 2017 baseline – $200bn worth of US goods and services over a two year period, from 1 January 2020 through 31 December 2021. This package consists of $77.7 bn in manufactured goods, $32.0 bn in agricultural products, $52.4 bn in energy, and $37.9 bn in services (see Annex 6.1 of the document). Moreover, China pledges to respect intellectual property rights, will open its financial services sector to the US, and refrain from currency manipulation.

In exchange for these Chinese concessions, the US did not carry out its plan for additional tariffs on $156 bn of Chinese goods on 15 December 2019, and will halve the 15% tariffs on $120 bn of Chinese consumer goods (such as cell phones, toys and laptops) implemented on 1 September 2019. However, the earlier 35% tariffs on $360bn of Chinese industrial goods and components remain in place. Moreover, the US Treasury department decided recently to no longer call China a currency manipulator.

What to make of this deal?

First let’s look at what is in the deal, and second at what is not. The Chinese purchases of goods are beneficial to US companies, but at the cost of other countries, and the agreement is only for two years. According to the document “the parties project that the trajectory of increases … will continue in calendar years 2020 through 2025.” Well, ‘to project’ does not sound as firm as ‘shall ensure.’ So are we going to see a repetition of the 2019 turmoil caused by the phase 1 trade negotiations after those two years? Or is this supposed to be solved in the phase 2 deal that is very unlikely to be made? What’s more, while the remaining tariffs provide leverage for US trade negotiators, they are still a tax on US importers and US consumers of Chinese goods.

What’s not in the deal is a credible implementation of China respecting US intellectual property rights. Keep in mind, they made promises before. Of course, the document (Chapter 1) is full of pledges. However, the most concrete step is that China will within 30 working days make an Action Plan to strengthen intellectual property protection (Article 1.35). What is also lacking from the deal is the end of China subsidizing its state owned enterprises. So on one key trade issue, China has made promises again and on the other it did not even have to.

In terms of overall enforcement of the deal, Chapter 7 describes the creation of a Trade Framework Group to discuss the implementation of the trade agreement every six months, which shall be led by the US Trade Representative and a designated Vice Premier of China. Each party shall establish a Bilateral Evaluation and Dispute Resolution Office, headed by the USTR (US) and the Vice Premier (China). If one party believes that the other party is not sticking to the agreement, the complaining party may submit an appeal to the Bilateral Evaluation and Dispute Resolution Office of the other party. The dispute procedures are actually a highway to the exit: ‘if the party complained against considers that the action of the complaining party was taken in bad faith, the remedy is to withdraw from this agreement by providing written notice of withdrawal to the complaining party.’ This means that if one party is not satisfied with the implementation of one aspect of the deal, the whole deal collapses. So while the Phase 1 deal is a temporary equilibrium, it is an unstable one.

After all the turmoil we have been through last year, this deal has failed to address the key conflicts between the US and China. Basically, the Chinese are going to buy more stuff from the US, but only in the next two years, in exchange for lower tariffs. Meanwhile, the Chinese business model that is characterized by violations of intellectual property rights and government subsidies of state-owned enterprises is likely to remain intact.

 

end
And now Bill Blain’s assessment as to the trade agreement…have we reached a Munich 1938 moment?
(courtesy Bill Blain)

“A Munich 1938 Moment?” – Blain Asks How The Chinese Will React To The Trade Deal Signing

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“Give them an act with lots of flash in it, and the reaction will be passionate..”

US stocks hit new highs, the Dow breaches 29,000, the Bank of England is thinking about easing rates, the Phase 1 Trade Agreement is actually signed, a global recovery is (apparently) underway, recession fears are just a distant memory. What’s not to like? Well…. Just about everything, but hey-ho! Party on! The drink is free, the music is great, the girls and boys are pretty, so Let’s Dance, and damn the consequences! Never mind the debt bubble, the stock bubble or that financial assets look an illusion of wealth. Boogie Wonderland indeed…

In terms of scepticism about the trade agreement, let me simply refer you to some of the better articles in the media: FT:  US-China “phase one” trade deal leaves markets virtually unmoved, BBerg – US and China Sign Phase One of Trade Deal. (The Oban Press and Journal said it all: US markets beat records amid China trade pact.)

If you want another perspective on the global outlook, this morning’s piece in the FT on Angela Merkel is well worth a read – Merkel warns EU: “Brexit is a wake-up call”. Her concerns on where Europe goes from here and how it fits the new global reality are well worth a few moments. But Germany is a story for another day….

Going back to yesterday’s deal, if I had the time this morning to trawl the last three years of trade headlines, I’d have analysed everything Donald Trump said he wanted from China and put them all on a list. I’d then put yesterday’s “agreement” beside it, and work out what’s missing. It’s likely to be a long list.

Of course, some of that stuff will be phase 2, 3…n (n+1) trade agreements, (if they ever happen) but you get my drift: 3 years of trade noise, dither and uncertainty, all so Donald can present it with fanfare, hordes of adoring fans, and razzle-dazzle the electorate ahead of the election. And folk say Trump is stupid? Stupid is as stupid does. 

Of course, the Democrats want to rile him, so finally they play the impeachment trial. That will distract us momentarily – unless of course we get something truly shocking from witness statements, but they would have to be “Donald Trump ate my baby” magnitude for Republican senators to find him guilty… and even then….

Trump gets what Trump wanted. The “trade-deal” (for want of a better term) gives him a marginally stronger chance of 4 more years before the US becomes an SEP (a Someone Else’s Problem). Its Short-Term.

It’s great news if you are a US Soyabean producer. Its going to be more interesting to see how China really delivers demand on other aspects of US agribusiness. While the agreement looks great on paper in terms of addressing the trade balance, just what do Chinese Consumers want to buy that is made in the US?

 

Source: “Yes, It’s Possible: This Is How China Can Boost US Imports By $200 Billion

And let’s not ignore the Huawei trap – that’s an incredibly complex box of frogs in terms of not just supply chains, but systems tech.

For the Chinese their perception of the Long-Term reality is very different. I suspect they will react to yesterday’s trade signing as a Munich 1938 Moment. They come back with a piece of paper saying trade war is averted – equivalent of peace in our time – and continue with the economic equivalent of rearmament: girding their economy for ongoing denial of access to US tech forcing them to develop and innovate their own Tech ecosystems, (which they are confident of doing), with increasingly limited access to US markets, increased geo-political tension, and the likelihood the US tries to persuade it allies to join an embargo of China across global commerce.

OF course, I don’t actually have time to spend re-reading the last 3 years of Trump. I’ve got a day job – in Alternative Assets.

Overheated financial assets and the prospect of ongoing global trade distractions means Alternatives are worthy of more attention than ever.  As markets continue to rally on non-news, expectations of central bank support, and ignore the realities of changing global supply chains, earnings, implausible P/E ratios and put their faith in messianic cult investments, you have to wonder how safe the distorted bubbles in financial assets can be?

Remembering the old adage: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, it’s time to be thinking about hedging for the coming top.  Alternative Assets range from private equity, direct lending, secured assets, infrastructure, property, real assets, etc, but if they have one characteristic, it’s the degree to which they are decorrelated from financial assets.

For instance – if I buy an airline or aircraft maker’s stock, I reap the upside in today’s frothy market – market risk, but bear the downside risk if the bubble bursts, plus I’ve got credit risk and all the other associated  business risks. However, if I own aircraft and lease them to airlines I still face a degree of credit risk on the users of my assets, but the ability to re-lease the asset to other users. My risks are different and less exposed to purely inflated financial asset risks. Alternatives are less dependent on volatile market risks, in the case of aircraft its economic risks like the propensity of people to fly which is an economic factor (although FLygSkam is an increasing consideration). If the supply of aircraft assets is limited, as it is, then the simple rules of demand and supply determine the economic value of the plane as an asset.

Before Central Banks discovered QE we believed the invisible hand of markets determined the value of financial assets, but the last 8 years of monetary experimentation and distortion has simply flooded financial assets with liquidity creating enormous inflation in financial assets, which many investors simply don’t get!

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Europe/USA

This is big: Trump threatened Europe with a huge 25% auto tariffs if it did not declare Iran in breach of the nuclear deal

(zerohedge)

 

Trump Secretly Threatened Europe With Auto Tariffs If It Didn’t Declare Iran In Breach Of Nuclear Deal

A bombshell revelation from The Washington Post a day after France, Britain and Germany took unprecedented action against Iran by formally triggering the dispute resolution mechanism regulating conformity to the deal, seen as the harshest measure taken by the European signatories thus far. The European powers officially see Iran as in breach of the deal which means UN and EU punitive sanctions are now on the table.

But according to The Post, how things quickly escalated to this point is real storyDays before Europeans warned Iran of nuclear deal violations, Trump secretly threatened to impose 25% tariff on European autos if they didn’t,”says the report.

This came as a “shock” to all three countries, with one top European official calling it essentially “extortion” and a new level of hardball tactics from the Trump administration.

 

File image via AFP/Getty

After the US leveraged the new tariffs threat according to the report, European capitals moved quick to trigger the mechanism, which involved the individual European states formally notifying the agreement’s guarantor, the European Union, that Iran is in breach of the nuclear deal.

This followed the Jan.6 declaration of Tehran’s leadership to no longer be beholden to uranium enrichment limits. And that’s where things got interesting as Washington’s pressure campaign dramatically turned up the heat on Europe.

“Within days, the three countries would formally accuse Iran of violating the deal, triggering a recourse provision that could reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran and unravel the last remaining vestiges of the Obama-era agreement,” the report continues.

However, the report notes France, the UK, and Germany were already in deep discussion on moving forward with triggering the mechanism. “We didn’t want to look weak, so we agreed to keep the existence of the threat a secret,” a European official cited by WaPo claims.

Trump’s threats of auto tariffs to gain trade concessions with the Europeans is certainly nothing new, but using the same to dictate foreign policy is, notes WaPo’s diplomatic correspondent John Hudson.

Interestingly, in Wednesday’s joint statement the European signatories attempted to distance their drastic action away from Washington’s so-called “maximum pressure” campaign. “Our three countries are not joining a campaign to implement maximum pressure against Iran,” they said.

 

The statement also underscored Europe hopes to use the mechanism “to bring Iran back into full compliance with its commitments under the JCPOA” and in the words of one official quoted in The Guardianto prevent nuclear advancement to the point that the Iranians learn something that it is not possible for them to unlearn”.

Now that the mechanism has been enacted, the clock starts on 65 days of intensive negotiations before UN sanctions would be reimposed if no resolution is reached. Specifically a blanket arms embargo would be imposed among other measures, and certainly it would mark the deal’s final demise, given the Europeans are Iran’s last hope for being equal partners in the deal.

Also interesting is that in the hours before The Washington Post report was published, Iranian FM Zarif charged that the EU investigation into Iran’s alleged non-compliance meant Europe is allowing itself to be bulled by the United States.

Indeed the new revelation of the secret threats attempting to dictate Europe’s course appear to confirm precisely Zarif’s words to reporters earlier on Wednesday: “They say ‘We are not responsible for what the United States did.’ OK, but you are independent” he began. And then added a stinging rebuke: “Europe, EU, is the largest global economy. So why do you allow the United States to bully you around?”

END

GERMANY
BDI warns that the German industry is stuck in recession with no signs of  bottoming.  And this is happening with the Euro lower than it would be if Germany uses the Mark instead of the Euro
(zerohedge)

German Industry “Stuck In Recession,” No Signs Of Bottom, Warns BDI

Germany’s Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie (BDI) warned Thursday that economic growth in Europe’s largest economy was “stuck in a recession,” with little hope of an economic rebound.

BDI said economic growth in Germany would continue to decelerate in 2020 as there are no signs of improvement in the struggling manufacturing sector.

“Industry remains stuck in recession, and there are no signs for the sector bottoming out,” BDI President Dieter Kempf said Thursday.

BDI forecasted economic growth at 0.5% in 2020, adding that adjusted growth will print around 0.1%.

Kempf said the government needs to increase public investment in infrastructure as a countercyclical buffer against the slowdown. He also said tax cuts are needed for corporations.

The warning from BDI comes as Germany’s economic growth rebounded slightly in the fourth quarter but slowed last year to its weakest level in six years as trade tensions escalated, exports plunged, and a steep downturn in the automotive industry was seen.

Official government statics show Wednesday morning that GDP growth rate in the last three months of 2019 was 0.6%, the lowest since 2013’s 0.4% expansion.

Germany narrowly avoided a recession late last year as GDP contracted in the second quarter and expanded by 0.1% in the third.

Industrials and exports power the economy, and with a global manufacturing recession still underway with a declining China – the hopes of a massive rebound in Europe’s largest economy are limited this year.

At the center of the global industrial slowdown is the auto manufacturing industry. Germany has yet to diversify from building cars and is still heavily exposed to global crosscurrents that persist.

Nearly 400,000 jobs could be cut from the German automotive industry in the next ten years as the slowdown in the economy is likely to continue.

BDI’s warning of a deepening manufacturing recession is bad news for everyone who bought stocks with the hopes of an economic rebound in early 2020.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/GREECE

Wow!! Turkish jets violate Greek airspace 91 times. This is getting ridiculous

(zerohedge)

Turkish Jets Violate Greek Airspace A Record 91 Times In A Single Day

Turkish aircraft broke an all time record on Tuesday, January 14, 2020, with 91 violations of Greek airspace.

Source

Additionally, as KeepTalkingGreece.com reports, among the 91 Athens FIR violations, 27 were overflights of various islands, including Panagia, Oinousses, Agathonisi, Lipsi, Kalolimnos, and for the first time in years, the Turkish jets flew also over the heavily populated, and tourist-dominated island, Leros, which lies just a few miles from Turkey.

 

A total of 20 Turkish aircraft, that is 15 fighter jets F-16, 1 AFNS CN-235 electronic warfare aircraft and 4 helicopters conducted the violations. Ten of the Turkish fighter jets were armed.

In six cases the Turkish jets were engaged in so-called “dog fights” with Greek fighter jets.

Sadly, this is a trend that has been ongoing for the last few years…

Source

As The Gatestone Institute’s Debalina Ghoshal recently wrote, Turkey’s “persistent policy of violating international law and breaching international rules and regulations” was called out in a November 14 letter to UN Secretary General António Guterres by Polly Ioannou, the deputy permanent representative of Cyprus to the UN.

Reproving Ankara for its repeated violations of Cypriot airspace and territorial waters, Ioannou wrote of Turkey’s policy:

“[it] is a constant threat to international peace and security, has a negative impact on regional stability, jeopardises the safety of international civil aviation, creates difficulties for air traffic over Cyprus and prevents the creation of an enabling environment in which to conduct the Cyprus peace process.”

The letter followed reports in August about Turkish violations of Greek airspace over the northeastern, central and southeastern parts of the Aegean Sea, and four instances of Turkey violating aviation norms by infringing on the Athens Flight Information Region (AFIR). Similar reports emerged in June of Turkey violating Greek AFIR by conducting unauthorized flights over the southern Aegean islets of Mavra, Levitha, Kinaros and Agathonisi.

In April 2017, Turkish European Affairs Minister Omer Celik claimed in an interview that Agathonisi was Turkish territory. A day earlier, a different Turkish minister announced that Turkey “would not allow Greece to establish a status of ‘fait accompli’ in the ‘disputed’ regions in the Aegean Sea.” In December 2017, Greek Deputy Minister of Shipping Nektarios Santonirios reportedly “presented a plan to populate a number of uninhabited eastern Aegean islands to deter Turkish claims to the land.”

According to a recent statement from Greece’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

 

“Greek-Turkish disputes over the Aegean continental shelf date back to November 1973, when the Turkish Government Gazette published a decision to grant the Turkish national petroleum company permits to conduct research in the Greek continental shelf west of Greek islands in the Eastern Aegean.

“Since then, the repeated Turkish attempts to violate Greece’s sovereign rights on the continental shelf have become a serious source of friction in the two countries’ bilateral relations, even bringing them close to war (1974, 1976, 1987).”

This friction has only increased with the authoritarian rule of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, particularly since, as Uzay Bulut notes:

There is one issue on which Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), are in complete agreement: The conviction that the Greek islands are occupied Turkish territory and must be reconquered. So strong is this determination that the leaders of both parties have openly threatened to invade the Aegean.

The only conflict on this issue between the two parties is in competing to prove which is more powerful and patriotic, and which possesses the courage to carry out the threat against Greece. While the CHP is accusing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP party of enabling Greece to occupy Turkish lands, the AKP is attacking the CHP, Turkey’s founding party, for allowing Greece to take the islands through the 1924 Treaty of Lausanne, the 1932 Turkish-Italian Agreements, and the 1947 Paris Treaty, which recognized the islands of the Aegean as Greek territory.

This has been Turkish policy despite the fact that both Greece and Turkey have been members of NATO since 1952. Greece became a member of the European Union in 1981 — a status that Turkey has spent decades failing to achieve, mainly due to its human-rights violations.

Recently, EU and Turkish officials met in Brussels on November 30 to discuss an intelligence-sharing agreement between the European Police Service (Europol) and Ankara. Such an agreement is reportedly one of 72 requirements that Ankara would have to meet in order to receive visa-free travel to the Schengen zone.

Ankara’s ongoing challenges to Greek land and sea sovereignty are additional reasons to keep it from enjoying full acceptance in Europe and the rest of the West.

END
UKRAINE
This is getting exciting..The Ukraine launches a criminal probe into the illegal surveillance of American Ambassador Yovonavitch as she without a doubt tried to backstab Trump..
(zerohedge)

Ukraine Launches Criminal Probe Into ‘Illegal Surveillance’ Of American Ambassador Fired By Trump

The first domino in the House Dems’ plan to push moderate Republicans to support a decision to call witnesses during President Trump’s impeachment trial has just fallen.

As we reported earlier this week, House Dems released a cache of notes and texts from former Rudy Giuliani associate Lev Parnas, who has been accused of funneling foreign money to the Trump campaign.

Text messages released from March 2019 between Parnas and Robert Hyde, a Connecticut resident who is planning a Congressional run on the Republican ticket, appear to shed light on a plot to try and oust former US ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovich. In the conversation, the two discussed rumors that Yovanovich was being protected by the Kremlin (how’s that for Russian influence?). They also allegedly discussed the ambassador’s whereabouts, and how they had a person on the “inside” to keep tabs on her.

 

Yovanovich was eventually pushed out, and now Ukraine has opened a criminal case into the possibility of illegal surveillance of Yovanovitch during her time as ambassador, according to a release from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry. Yovanovitch, who provided evidence to the House, claimed she was spied on before being fired by President Trump, according to the Independent.

Keep in mind: many of the handwritten notes released yesterday were unverified and undated, though Dems allege they were written by Parnas.

But that didn’t stop Yovanovitch’s lawyer from calling for an investigation after the notes and texts allegedly suggested that she was being watched.

 

However, to many people, the behavior being described is no different from having an office mole who feeds information about employees to the boss. That being said, we’re sure the Dems will use this as an excuse to revive the Russian interference narrative.

Of course, when the Dems inevitably push to call Parnas as a witness, Republicans can counter with a totally legitimate political quid pro quo: Calling Parnas as a witness in exchange for calling Hunter Biden.

END

TURKEY
Fascinating!! Erdogan lowers borrowing costs and now their interest rate in real terms is negative if you account for inflation.
(zerohedge)

Bizarro Markets: Turkey Cuts Real Rates To Negative And Turkish Lira Jumps

At 6am ET, the Turkish central bank cut the 1-week repo rate to 11.25% from 12%, in line with the consensus estimate. The 75bps cut was the smallest rate cut since the CBRT embarked on an easing cycle under the new governor, Murat Uysal, balancing demands for lower borrowing costs from President Erdogan against the risk of a market backlash.

 

While most analysts predicted a cut, expectations ranged widely, and although the median forecast was for a decrease of 75 basis points, for the first time since Uysal became governor in July, a sizable minority of economists predicted a hold, after 12% of easing in the second half of 2019.

“Considering all factors affecting the inflation outlook, the Committee decided to make a measured cut in the policy rate. At this point, the current monetary policy stance remains consistent with the projected disinflation path”, the Central Bank said.

 

What is more notable about today’s rate cut, the fifth since easing began, is that it pushed the benchmark below zero, when adjusted for inflation, crippling one of the market’s favorite positive carry trade.

 

But, paradoxically, with the latest move coming in below most forecasts, the lira appreciated after the decision and was trading 0.4% stronger at 5.8526 against the dollar in Istanbul.

 

It’s “a smart move” by the central bank to avoid surprising the market with another bigger-than-forecast cut, according to Rabobank FX analyst Piotr Matys. “This is clearly positive for the lira,” he said. “But it doesn’t change our long-term bearish view as the Erdogan administration hasn’t made progress in implementing urgently required structural reforms.”

Even more paradoxically, Erdoganomics – which takes every conventional aspect of economics and turns it on its head – continues to work, because despite the unprecedented scale of easing under Murat Uysal’s watch, the new governor hasn’t provoked investors into turning on Turkey while winning praise from Erdogan, who wants lower borrowing costs to rev up the economy despite still raging inflation.

 

Erdogan, who has previously said that rates will fall below 10% this year, believes higher borrowing costs cause rather than prevent inflation, hence Erdoganomics. And while most economists and central banks around the world believe the opposite to be true, perhaps the Turkish leader is on to something in a world where central banks have flipped financial logic on its head.

 

Erdogan’s government, which increased its target for growth to 5% for 2020-2022 after slashing last year’s forecast to near zero, is relying on cheaper credit to give the economy an extra kick. Emboldened by a more steady lira, the central bank has so far done its part, but as Bloomberg notes, the outlook is turning more tentative. Not helping the central bank is Turkey’s annual inflation, which last month jumped for a second month in December to 11.8%, and policy makers only expect it to start decelerating toward single digits from the second quarter, before ending the year at 8.2%. Economists predict price growth will average around 10% or higher through the third quarter, meaning real rates will only become more negative as the central bank cuts.

Meanwhile, the Turkish lira is off to one of the best starts among the currencies of developing nations this year. It depreciated over 11% against the dollar in 2019, the worst performance in emerging markets after Argentina’s peso.

Which perhaps explains why, as Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud writes, “more easing is likely to come: Erdogan wants interest rates to be in single digits this year, and he’ll probably get that barring a meltdown in the currency.”

The question is whether the Lira will keep rising, allowing him to push real rates even more negative, or if Mrs Watanabe will finally realize what inflation-adjusted carry actually means.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.165 UP .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.97 UP 0.090 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3065   UP   0.0023  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31//

USA/CAN 1.3040 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 13 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1165 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 15.96 POINTS OR 0.52% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 109.45 POINTS OR 0.33%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,67%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 109.45 POINTS OR 0.33%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.96 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 67% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 16.55  POINTS OR 0.07%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1556.10

silver:$18.01-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.78% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.23 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.16 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.52% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.47%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,44 UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 93 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.22% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.66% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1131 UP     .0021 or 21 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.16 UP .278 OR YEN DOWN 28  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3079 UP .0040 POUND UP 40  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 5 basis points to 1.3041

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.88155    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8754  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8570 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.81 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.26 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.33 UP 10  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 32.99  0.43%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 2.87 POINTS OR .02%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 6.42 POINTS 0.11%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 60.80 POINTS or 0.64%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 176.56 POINTS OR 0.74%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.76 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.63 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    61.63  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.22 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 22 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.41//

 

 

BRENT :  64.67

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.80…plus 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.25…plus 2 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1137 ( DOWN 15   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.13 UP .253 (YEN DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.30 UP 7 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3074 UP 35  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8584

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.86   DOWN 0.25 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 25 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3041 UP 1 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8815  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8784 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.22%

 

The Dow closed UP 267.35 POINTS OR 0.92%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 98.44 POINTS OR 1.06%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.20 CLOSED DOWN .22

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.836%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

 

Huge Short-Squeeze Sparks New Record Stock Highs As FX Vol Crashes To Record Low

Another day, another short-squeeze, and another record high…

This four-day squeeze is now of the size that has historically led to a reversal…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets were higher mainly thanks to the opening jolt (and of course the late-day meltup)…

 

Panic-bid at the close?

 

Why were stocks up? Because “that is the law”…

Nasdaq is now up 4% on the year…

…but that is less than 2019 and 2018 (and the same as 2017) for this far into the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Dow topped 29,200; S&P topped 3,300.

The S&P 500 Index is trading at the highest level over its 200-day moving average since late January 2018.

As Bloomberg reports, amid a solid monthly U.S. retail-sales report and diminished geopolitical risks, the benchmark has been looking heated from a technical standpoint, begging the question on how long the rally can last.

Cyclicals outperformed today but Defensives dominate the week…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed day for banks with GS now best on the week and WFC still the laggard…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA dared to have another down day, but we note that once again it was panic-bid at the cash open after weakness overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese markets were mixed with small-cap tech soaring as the big caps slipped…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were also mixed with Spain and Italy outperforming today and the rest unch…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX crashed to an 11 handle intraday and while credit protection costs slipped, they remain notably decoupled from equity risk…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher by around 2bps across the curve today…

 

Source: Bloomberg

30Y yields found support at YTD low yields…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar edged higher today, rebounding off the 50% Fib retracement of the year-end plunge…

Source: Bloomberg

JPMorgan’s gauge of global currency volatility hit an all-time low today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were lower today but holding on to the week’s impressive gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is holding around $8700 – well above the pre-Soleimani levels…best start to a year since 2012

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed today with copper down as crude rallied and PMs relatively flat…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures stalled at pre-Soleimeni levels again…

WTI bounced off $57 handle once again…

Finally, while today’s data was solid, the decoupling between stocks and macro fundamentals makes a mockery of markets (can you guess what’s really driving stocks higher?)

Source: Bloomberg

And, if everything’s so awesome with the trade deal (all those Ag buys), why did all the softs collapse today?

Source: Bloomberg

Is the deal real or fake?

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

VIX Monkeyhammered To 11 Handle As S&P Tops 3,300

The meltup accelerates.

VIX 11 handle…

Dow up 200 points (over 29,200)…

…and S&P over 3,300.

On the back of a huge short-squeeze…

Year-to-date, stocks have overtaken bonds and bullion…

And don’t forget, The Dow is soaring on fun-durr-mentals…

 

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Boeing now loses its delivery crown to Airbus

(zerohedge)

Boeing Loses Jet Delivery Crown To Airbus

Earlier this month, we noted how Airbus locked in a record number of aircraft deliveries in December to exceed full-year delivery targets while outshining troubled Boeing in becoming the world’s top plane maker.

The report, however, did not include official numbers and had to be audited before officially published.

But now, we have official data that confirms Boeing has lost its crown as the world’s biggest plane maker to rival Airbus following the 737 Max crisis, reported the Financial Times.

Boeing received 246 new aircraft orders in 2019, the lowest in nearly two decades, which dropped to a negative 87 after cancellations.

Boeing orders have been halved since 2018’s 806, recorded just 380 in 2019, the lowest since 2008.

Before the Max crisis, Boeing estimated that deliveries for commercial jets would be around 895 to 905 for 2019.

The problem with Boeing is that management rushed engineers to develop a more fuel-efficient 737 to complete with a new lineup of single-aisle jets from Airbus. Boeing encountered difficulties with adding larger engines to the plane and developed the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) anti-stall system that would help the aircraft stabilize in flight. But it was the malfunction of the MCAS system that led to two plane crashes, killing 346 people, which eventually led to the grounding of all 737 Max planes worldwide.

Airbus entered the new decade as the top plane maker of the world. The company said it secured orders of 768 aircraft in 2019, up 24 over the prior year. Deliveries totaled 863, up from 806 in 2018. It has a backlog of some 7,482 commercial jets, versus Boeing’s 5,406.

Shown in The Seattle Times chart below (updated on December 29), the grounding of the Max and now suspension of its production had more than halved deliveries from 806 in 2018 to 370 in 2019.

The Times noted that once the Max is ungrounded, and as of Wednesday, there are no concrete timelines, Boeing will begin delivering 400 aircraft that have been parked since global regulators grounded the plane on March 13, 2019.

Analysts have warned that inspecting the grounded jets could take at least 12 months to complete, and that could add to the backlog and weigh on new production for a considerable amount of time.

“It will take Boeing all of this year and most of next year to clear that backlog [of grounded aircraft],” said Rob Stallard, an analyst at Vertical Research.

Sash Tusa, of Agency Partners, predicts the Max could return to the skies by the end of 1Q. “Our forecast for Airbus deliveries in 2020 is 933 aircraft. We forecast Boeing to do 978 aircraft. But that assumes the Max returns to service at the very end of the first quarter,” Tusa said.

Extended grounding has led some carriers to suspend future deliveries of Max planes. The latest report from Reuters notes that Malaysia Airlines has suspended deliveries of 25 Max jets, citing no clear timetable of ungrounding.

“As there is no clarity yet from various authorities on its return to service, our technical due diligence is still ongoing,” Malaysia Airlines said.

Virgin Australia Holdings said last year that it had delayed Max jets for two years due to the grounding.

Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA recently said that it reached an agreement with Boeing to postpone delivery of 14 Max jets because of the grounding.

And last April, the near-collapse of India’s Jet Airways led to the cancellation of 210 aircraft from Boeing that was expected to be delivered in the coming years.

The grounding of the jets has forced Boeing to freeze the production of the planes that could lead to lower GDP growth in the US for 1H.

The longer Max remains grounded, the more orders Airbus will gain. The Max crisis also comes as an industrial recession plagues the US economy and has already spilled over into an employment slowdown.

end

This is important:  Wolf Richter notes that all forms of USA freight shipments plunge to levels equal to the 2009 –2011 crash

(Wolf Richter)

“Surprisingly Ugly” – US Freight Shipments Plunge At Fastest Rate Since 2009, Hit 2011 Levels

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Shipment volume in the US by truck, rail, air, and barge plunged 7.9% in December 2019 compared to a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. It was the 13th month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the steepest year-over-year decline since November 2009, during the Financial Crisis:

The Cass Freight Index tracks shipment volume of consumer goods and industrial products and supplies by all modes of transportation, but it does not track bulk commodities, such as grains. As always when things get ugly, the calendar gets blamed – Christmas fell on a Wednesday, as it does regularly.

More realistically, December was also the month when Celadon Group, with about 3,000 drivers and about 2,700 tractors, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and ceased operations — the largest truckload carrier ever to file for bankruptcy in US history. It rounded off a large wave of bankruptcies and shutdowns of trucking companies in 2019, most of them smaller ones, but also some regional carriers, and on December 9, Celadon.

Rail traffic in December capped off a miserable year, with carloads down 9.2% year-over-year in December, and container and trailer loads (intermodal) down 9.6%, according to the Association of American Railroads. For the 52-week period, traffic of carloads and intermodal units fell 5%.

The 7.9% year-over-year drop of the Cass Freight Index pushed it below a slew of prior Decembers, including December 2011. The top black line represents 2018, the fat red line 2019:

Cass derives the data from actual freight invoices paid on behalf of its clients ($28 billion in 2018). So this data is not based on sentiment surveys. It’s based on a large sample of the actual shipments in the US, involving real money, sent by numerous companies across many sectors.

The shipment boom in 2018 was a sight to behold. It had been fired up by widespread efforts to front-run the tariffs by loading up on merchandise. So some backtracking was to be expected. But not this plunge in shipments to multi-year lows.

Freight expenditures fall, but remain high.

In 2018, shippers such as industrial companies or retailers or manufacturers groaned under the surging freight expenditures – and complained about it in their earnings reports. Total freight expenditures paid by shippers are a mix of freight rates, including fuel surcharges, and the volume of shipments. Some freight rates have remained high, and some companies such as UPS and FedEx have raised their rates, despite this environment of falling shipment volume.  Other freight rates have come down under pressure, particularly in the trucking spot market. And for months, even as shipment volume was dropping, the total amount that shippers paid remained stubbornly high. But now this is starting to change.

In December, total freight expenditures – the amount shippers, such as manufacturers, retailers, or industrial companies, spent on freight by all modes of transportation – dropped 6.2% from a year ago.

That’s a steep drop, but expenditures are still dropping more slowly than shipment volume, indicating that there are pockets – FedEx, UPS, etc. – where freight rates continue to rise, and this leaves the Cass Freight Index for expenditures in December at still high levels, though dropping sharply (2019 = fat red line). Note the yellow line (2017) and the top black line (2018), as an indicator of how much freight expenditures surged in those two years:

What is causing this sharp decline in shipments?

Retail sales, powered by ecommerce, are holding up. Ecommerce is red-hot and brick-and-mortar retail is dismal. December data has not emerged yet, but in November total retail sales, including ecommerce, rose 3.1% year-over-year.

Total construction spending has bounced off in recent months from lower levels. In November, it grew at an annual rate of 4.1% year-over-year, but remains below the peak of February 2018.

But manufacturing is weak and getting weaker. One of the data points on this theme – and there are many others: The ISM Purchasing Managers Index for December dropped 0.9 percentage points from November to 47.2%, the fifth month in a row of contraction, and the fastest contraction since June 2009, with employment, new orders, new export orders, production, backlog of orders, and inventories all contracting:

The Oil-and-Gas-Bust.

The oil-and-gas sector is now undergoing phase 2 of the bust that started in mid-2014. The price of oil is still down by nearly half from where it was then. The price of natural gas remains in total collapse mode. And the cashflow-negative fracking industry is getting morose, trying to curtail the bleeding, by cutting investments, cutting purchases, cutting employment, trying to persuade investors that they should send even more money their way.

And now this solid recession indicator is starting to concern me again. Read...  It’s Time to Pay Attention to Commercial & Industrial Loans

*  *  *

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Trump celebrates his China/USA trade deal victory.  Actually he destroyed China but also hurt citizens as they will still have to pay more for goods

(zerohedge)

Trump Celebrates “Greatest Trade Deal Ever Made,” Bashes “Cryin’ Chuck Schumer” For “Knocking It

If you thought yesterday’s 90-minute press conference bukkake – where President Trump demanded that a senior JPM executive thank him for the bank’s record profits – would be the extent of the administration’s trade war ‘victory lap’, then you clearly underestimated this president’s commitment to winning.

In a tweet published Thursday morning, President Trump gloated that he had just struck “one of the greatest trade deals ever made!”

He added that the teal is “good for China, and out long term relationship,” before adding that “250 Billion Dollars” will be returning to the US thanks to Beijing’s promise to scale up imports.

The US is now “in a great position” to kick off negotiations for Phase 2, and advised that passing USMCA is “NEXT!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

One of the greatest trade deals ever made! Also good for China and our long term relationship. 250 Billion Dollars will be coming back to our Country, and we are now in a great position for a Phase Two start. There has never been anything like this in U.S. history! USMCA NEXT!

Earlier this week, Mitch McConnell said the Republican dominated senate might pass USCMA by the end of the week, making it extremely likely that the deal will make it to the president’s desk in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Dems are doing everything they can to redirect news coverage away from Trump’s trade triumph (even if the ‘fragile’ deal does nothing to resolve the US’s biggest gripes about Beijing) and toward their impeachment circus.

In a second tweet sent 20 minutes later, Trump took a shot at “Cryin Chuck” Schumer, whom Trump insisted “is saying privately that the new China Trade Deal is unbelievable” even though he “publicly knocks it whenever possible.”

“That’s politics, but so bad for our country,” Trump added.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Cryin’ Chuck Schumer is saying privately that the new China Trade Deal is unbelievable, which it is, but publicly he knocks it whenever possible. That’s politics, but so bad for our great Country!

Free-trade Dems including Schumer persistently discouraged Trump from mixing it up with the Chinese. So it’s only fitting that they’re trying to distance themselves from Trump’s trade agenda.

end
The Fed just let this “not QE” out of the bag.  They admit being forced to fuel asset bubbles in this latest Fed folly and this will continue for quite some time until they figure out how they will begin to remove assets from balance sheet which will be never!~!
(zerohedge)

The Fed “Just Let The Cat Out Of The Bag”, Admits Being Forced To Fuel Asset Bubble

Authored by Richard Breslow via Bloomberg,

Well the cat’s out of the bag…

The worst kept secret in the financial world is now not only accepted orthodoxy, but finally being discussed openly by, at least some, authorities.

Central bank policies are directly driving asset prices and the bubbles therein. It’s what they do. It has been so stunningly obvious that, at this point, it makes a mockery of things to deny it as an ongoing, and essential, part of how their strategy is implemented. Oddly enough, however, it’s a revelation that is, apparently, coming late to many people with a lot of savings and nothing to show for it. And it is an undeniable factor in this January’s price action.

  • Alan Greenspan knew it to be the case.
  • Ben Bernanke had no problem with it. His strategy required it.
  • Jerome Powell, was probably initially not enamored about it but saw no way around it. It fell on ardent loyalists to take his insistence that it was “not QE” with any seriousness. Otherwise, they would have had to admit to knowing little about financial markets.

In some ways it was refreshing that Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan openly talked about it in an interview Wednesday. Although he did couch it in terms that implied it was a matter of some concern to him. But, of course, he went on to say, “we’ve done what what we need to do up until now.”

“My own view is it’s having some effect on risk assets,” Kaplan said.

“It’s a derivative of QE when we buy bills and we inject more liquidity; it affects risk assets. This is why I say growth in the balance sheet is not free. There is a cost to it.”

He doth protest, just not so much. Their ability to drive investor behavior is so well established that what is going on in the markets can’t remotely be seen as an unintended, or even unwanted, consequence.

At this point, is it a bad thing to admit something that is so patently evident to everyone?

The answer is probably yes.

They have always been responsive to financial conditions. In many ways they’ve been transfixed by them. Now they are openly acknowledging that they own them. And once you do so, it becomes harder than ever, if even at all possible, to give them back. Kaplan said they need to “come up with a plan and communicate a plan for winding this (balance sheet) down.”

That would be nice. And good luck with that.

A long-time and favorite parlor game has been debating when, and if, the Fed “put” would kick in on any market upsets. It was even acceptable to try to argue whether one existed or not. Although that might have just been an attempt at being provocative. Now the presumption among investors, institutional and retail alike, is that it is fully in force. Maybe more so than ever. Fully enhanced by policies that are not changing anytime soon.

At this point, you have to wonder if it even matters whether it is true or not. We are back in the mode of just wanting to find something to buy. Stocks act as if they are bullet-proof. Stock buy-backs look like they are front-running the inevitable rather than being the cause of it. Reports of new all-time highs, need to include the word “again.”

Calls to exercise caution by limiting duration are once again being dismissed as just leaving yield on the table. Italy sold 30-year debt this week. A 7 billion euro offering saw bids of some 45 billion euros. And this hasn’t been an isolated case. Other European countries have been enjoying the opportunity. Bond issues from Japan and Australia flew off the shelves earlier this week. Five-year JGB yields at negative 9.5- basis points were seen as oozing value.

We, quite properly, worry that central banks are running low on ammunition to fight any future recession. This translates into what looks like a “risk-on” environment. But it is just the opposite. Yield remains the primary game in town. With an expectation that it will be in dwindling supply.

This is not to say that investors are at all acting irrationally. And central banks feel they have no choice in the absence of broader policy prescriptions. It’s merely an attempt to describe what we all see. Most worryingly, I keep hearing from people who are sure that it’s obvious where we go from here.

end

Good for Trump..He is going after Bloomberg’s wealth by banning the lockup computers and that will hit the HFT revenues.  HFT plays a dominant role in the whacking of gold and silver

(zerohedge)

Trump Goes After Bloomberg: Starting March 1, BLS Will Ban Lockup Computers, Hitting HFT Revenues

As first reported on Tuesday, moments ago the BLS confirmed that starting March 1, the Trump admin will ban all electronics including computers from the room where journalists receive early advance access to major economic reports, in an effort to ensure a level playing field, a U.S. official told the same wire services that stand to suffer the most from this major overhaul of how economic data is disseminated.

As discussed on Tuesday, currently, the Labor Department hosts “lockups” for major reports lasting 30 to 60 minutes, where journalists receive the data in a secure room, write stories on computers disconnected from the internet, and transmit them when connections are restored at the release time.

Confirming our speculation that this was a way for the Trump admin to hit Mike Bloomberg and his eponymous organization where it hurts, the U.S. official, speaking on a conference call with journalists, said “the change is being made because several news organizations that participate are able to profit by providing the numbers to algorithmic traders in a format that provides them an advantage.”

Translation: Trump is now going after the source of Mike Bloomberg’s wealth – the selling of zero-latency market-moving information to HFTs.

The overhaul will take effect March 1, the official said. Labor Department officials were asked if the change was specifically aimed at Bloomberg News, which participates in the lockups and whose founder and majority owner, Michael Bloomberg, is running for the Democratic presidential nomination. The official denied any political motivation and cited a prior recommendation by the Labor Department’s inspector general.

For those who missed the background on this critical, to all market participants, strateigsts, and traders story, here it is again.

Any time the US Department of Labor releases the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, wire agencies such as Bloomberg and Reuters already have a prepared barrage of market-moving data points ready to go to their paying subscribers (and, on the nanosecond, to frontrunning HFT clients) together with a commentary wrapper that is prepared in the 30-60 minutes before the official data release, prepared by journalists who are in “lockup” in a given government data room, which is meant to prevent them from leaking the data to other, more interested (and better funded) parties.

This is shown schematically in the image below.

However, starting as soon as this week, the “lockup” may now be history, as well as those flashing red jobs headlines that set the market mood for the day, and often, the rest of the month (assuming, of course, that eventually fundamentals will matter again), because in what Bloomberg dubbed the “biggest change to economic data releases in decades“, the Trump administration plans to limit the news media’s ability to prepare advance stories on market-moving economic data, such as the monthly jobs report, “in a move that could create a logjam in accessing figures such as the monthly jobs report.”

Needless to say, Bloomberg – along with Reuters, and countless other wire services, who sell lockup data to extremely generous HFT clients for a lot of money – are not happy.

As noted above, currently the Labor Department hosts “lockups” for major reports lasting 30 to 60 minutes, where journalists receive the data in a secure room, write stories on computers disconnected from the internet, and transmit them when connections are restored at the release time.

However, for reasons not fully clear, the department under pressure from the administration, is looking at changes such as removal of computers from that room, and an announcement could come as soon as this week, said Bloomberg sources.

That, as Bloomberg which would be directly and very adversely affected notes, “could hinder the media’s ability to provide headlines, comprehensive stories and tables at the exact release time.”

That’s one interpretation, another is that it will further democratize information, allowing, or rather forcing, everyone to come up with their own fast take of the data, and even open up the field to new competitors who currently don’t have access to the lockup.

Indeed, as one FX strategist noted, “Quant strategies focusing on reading headlines will need a rethink. Will lead to huge info asymmetry post data releases. Although may boost role of market economists who need to digest raw data as quickly as possible.

Viraj Patel@VPatelFX

This is big for markets. Quant strategies focusing on reading headlines will need a rethink. Will lead to huge info asymmetry post data releases. Although may boost role of market economists who need to digest raw data as quickly as possible. Watching closely 👀

Did we mention that Bloomberg isn’t happy? As the news organization belonging to the Democratic presidential candidate notes, “the move would upend decades of practice, and media organizations including Bloomberg News and Reuters have challenged prior changes to procedures. The shift could also spur an arms race among high-speed traders to get the numbers first and profit off the data, raising questions about fairness in multitrillion-dollar financial markets.”

Thank you for the spin Bloomberg, but the arms race between HFTs has been going on for a decade, and it is companies like Bloomberg that not only enabled it but profited generously from it. In fact, a contract that shoots over the data with zero latency is said to cost millions of dollars, something which Bloomberg will not be too happy to see flee to those who are faster and more accurate at reading the data in real time.

There is another fringe benefit such an action would deliver: the US government would finally have to enter the 21st century with modernized websites:

Without news services transmitting their reports at the release time and allowing additional access points, the government may have to prepare its websites to handle potentially heavier loads under the new system, which could mean adding security measures or increasing the traffic capacity.

To be sure, this is not the first time the government tried to overhaul the lockup structure: in 2012, Obama’s Labor Department sought to alter lockups to require journalists to use government-owned computers to write their stories. Officials at the time framed the change as addressing security risks.

After protests from Bloomberg News and other news organizations, and a congressional hearing in which editors testified, the department agreed to allow the media to continue using their own equipment and data lines. Reporters are required to leave mobile phones and other electronic devices in lockers outside of the lockup room, along with personal effects such as umbrellas and purses.

On the other hand, it’s not like this move would be unprecedented: the Labor Department move would follow a similar decision by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2018 to scale back lockups covering farm products, particularly the closely-watched monthly crop forecasts that typically move markets in soybeans, corn and wheat.

Finally, the big question remains: why is Trump doing this? One potential explanation is that Trump is seeking to hit his political challenger, Mike Bloomberg, where it hurts: As we noted earlier, if the BLS removes lockups, “billions in HFT data feed fees to wire services like Reuters and Bloomberg go up in smoke.” Leading to the logical question: “Is this Trump targeting Bloomberg terminal?”, which for decades has been Mike Bloomberg’s golden goose, spewing billions in annual subscription fees, allowing him to spend a similar amount to remove Trump at any cost…

zerohedge@zerohedge

If BLS removes lockups, billions in HFT data feed fees to wire services like Reuters and Bloomberg go up on smoke.

Is this Trump targeting Bloomberg terminal?

end
The Senate passes the Canada-USA Mexico trade bill
(zerohedge)

Senate Passes USMCA Trade Deal 89-10

It’s official: The Senate has passed President Trump’s USMCA trade accord that revamps the 1994 NAFTA agreement.

The final count: 89 to 10, with several high-profile Democrats, including Cory Booker and Chuck Schumer, opposing the measure.

By allowing Trump to sign USMCA into law on Thursday, the vote will enable his administration to celebrate two back-to-back wins on trade policy.

The vote on H.R. 5430 is ongoing, but a majority of senators have voted to approve the deal. It was passed by the Democrat-controlled House nearly one month ago.

The Commerce, Foreign Relations, Appropriations and Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committees all approved the deal on Wednesday, removing the final obstacle to a floor vote. The Senate’s approval will come more than a year after the underlying deal, which would replace the 1993 North American Free Trade Agreement, was reached between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

As Politico reminds us, passage of the deal fulfills Trump’s 2016 campaign promise to renegotiate NAFTA, a key part of his promise to rework international trade arrangements to the benefit of American workers. As the bill’s overwhelming passage suggests, Democrats also regard the deal as a win due to major changes they secured in negotiations with the Trump administration.

But that didn’t stop 10 Democrats from voting against it. Dem leader Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Dem, acknowledged that although the treaty is a win for workers, it doesn’t do enough to combat climate change, and thus he didn’t vote for it.

Watch the vote live below:

end
The Fed is now capping the amount of Treasury bills it is allowed to buy as part of QE 4
(zerohedge)

Fed To Cap How Many Bills It Buys As Part Of QE4

Now that we are no longer pretending that the Fed’s “NOT QE” is not in fact “QE 4“, investors and strategists are starting to look more carefully at how the Fed is monetizing the T-Bills as part of its market boosting reserve management Permanent Open Market Operation remit. And, as it turns out, so is the Fed, because oddly enough after several of our posts accused the Fed of implicitly monetizing the debt, by exposing just how fast the Fed was repurchasing from Dealers the same Bills it had issued just days earlier as described in…

… on Wednesday, the Fed unexpecteldy issued new guidance capping the amount of individual T-Bills it will purchase as part of QE4. Specifically, on Jan 14, the New York Fed announced that while it is maintaining T-bill purchases at $60b/month, it will limit the amount of individual securities it purchases, to wit:

In order to slow the rate of purchases for securities in which the SOMA portfolio already has large holdings as a proportion of Treasury securities outstanding, the Desk will allow the share of SOMA holdings of an individual Treasury security to rise above certain levels only in modest increments, as specified in the tables below. Subject to market conditions, the Desk may further limit the size of additional purchases in certain issues or otherwise change the stated limits as needed.

For bills, the Desk will allow the share of SOMA holdings of an individual Treasury security to rise above 17.5 percent in increments, as shown below. These limits will support market functioning and operational efficiency by smoothing the distribution of bill holdings and maturities within the SOMA portfolio.

The new limitations are shown schematically in the table below:

Commenting on this new self-imposed limitation, interdealer broker Wrightson ICAP said that the decision to impose “graduated caps” on its purchases of T-bills should help guard against the risk that the central bank absorbs such a large share of an issue “as to seriously compromise its liquidity in the secondary market.”

Of course, nobody has any concerns what happens to this liquidity on the other end, i.e., as the Fed is soaking liquidity from the Bill market, it is injecting it into the stock market, something that Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow so rightfully raged against earlier today.

 

And while the Fed always had some limits on how much it can buy, those for T-bills are now separate and “more stringent” so they’ll take less of bills they already own, said Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities. This means that Fed demand for just issued On The Run Bills will be far more capped. As Goldberg notes “it could spread purchases more evenly across the bill curve since the new limits will prevent the Fed from buying old 1y bills too quickly.” And as an example consider that the New York Fed already owns 39% of the Oct. 8, 2020, security and 36% of the Nov. 5, 2020, both of which we highlighted as part of our series on Fed T-Bill monetizations.

We bring this up because momentarily the Fed will conduct its latest $7.5BN T-Bill POMO as part of QE4, in which for the first time we will see how the new limitations on individual Bill securities play out in practice.

END
The power of internet sales is playing havoc to retail giants.  They are now starting to flee Times Square which in days gone past, was a foot traffic mecca.
(zerohedge)

Amazon Juggernaut Forces Retail Giants To Flee Times Square

Is Amazon’s monopoly of online retailing about to transform Times Square into a ghost town?

As online sales cannibalize ever more traffic – and sales – from legacy brick and mortar stores, even such traditional foot traffic meccas as Times Square are starting to feel the heat, as brand name retailers flee, leading to what Bloomberg called “turmoil” at one of the world’s busiest locations.

Take Gap and Cover Girl, which are among merchants looking to leave stores in the district, where companies have historically been willing to swap high rent payments for daily exposure to hundreds of thousands of tourists and commuters.

But as more shopping moves online and bricks-and-mortar spaces shrink, Bloomberg reports that real estate brokers are on the hunt for new tenants to occupy a pair of adjacent flagship stores at 1530 and 1532 Broadway – one for Gap and one for its discount brand Old Navy.

 

Additionally, new space is also available right next door, at 30 Times Square, where beauty giant Coty opened its first-ever Cover Girl store a little more than a year ago, and which now appears to be on the way out. Those come on top of a four-story flagship at 1551 Broadway that American Eagle Outfitters may depart.

“Some retail is just antiquated,” said Brett Herschenfeld, who oversees the retail unit of SL Green Realty Corp. It “hasn’t evolved with the times and they either fix it to the meet the consumer segment or they’re closing stores.”

To be sure, while Times Square hasn’t been hit as hard as other neighborhoods by mushrooming vacancies, asking rents have slipped and some of the district’s largest merchants, including Toys “R” Us, have shuttered stores in recent years. Others are evaluating whether their outsized spaces are the best way to generate sales while giving shoppers the experiences they flock to the area for.

“The most successful approach to Times Square will be to think outside of the large box,” said Phil Granof, chief marketing officer of NewStore, operator of a mobile e-commerce platform that works with physical stores. “Breaking it down into smaller pieces, there might be more value there.”

 

Among the giant currently occupying space on Times Square are Gp, which has roughly 80,000 square feet at the two locations in Times Square, with leases that run through 2032; Coty has about 10,000 square feet across five floors that is being marketed for sublease through 2021. And while the buildings all come with massive digital billboards, in an era when advertising has shifted to Instagram and other social media, companies are questioning the cost of pushing their wares in Times Square.

“The value that brands will pay for the exposure in Times Square on a permanent basis is under some pressure,” said Michael Hirschfeld, a retail broker at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. “A lot of mass-market types of consumer brands are now reaching you directly on your phones or Instagram.”

For two retail giants, the warm glare of Times Square LCD lights, has outstayed its welcome: Gap, on the hunt for a permanent chief executive officer after Art Peck was fired in November, is closing stores as it struggles to revitalize a label that has fallen out of step with shoppers. Old Navy has been a bright spot for the company, but that brand has also faced challenges in recent quarters, including increased competition from other discount chains.

Yet while Times Square may be losing its luster for some companies, Bloomberg notes that there’s still plenty of interest in the area from current and prospective tenants – and that shows how powerful it remains for retailers, according to Steven Soutendijk, a broker at Cushman & Wakefield: “It’s not just about marketing and branding anymore,” he said. “It’s about the footfall and the shoppers that are there.”

END

Michael Snyder on this very important topic:  7 major earth changes happening right before our eyes

(Michael Snyder)

7 Major Earth Changes Happening Right Now That Everyone Needs To Know About

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

There has never been a time in modern human history when our planet has been changing as rapidly as it is changing right now. 

The sun is behaving very strangely, freakishly cold weather is breaking out all over the world, ocean temperatures continue to rise, volcanoes all over the globe are shooting ash miles into the air, Australia is experiencing the worst wildfires that they have ever seen, and the north magnetic pole has been moving at a pace that is deeply alarming scientists.

Could it be possible that all of this bizarre activity is leading up to some sort of a crescendo?

Sadly, most people don’t even realize what is happening, and that is because the mainstream media only emphasizes stories that fit with the particular narratives that they are currently pushing.

But it has gotten to the point where nobody can deny that really weird things are happening.  The following are 7 major earth changes that are happening right now that everyone needs to know about…

#1 According to NASA, solar activity has dropped to the lowest level in 200 years.  The following comes from the official NASA website

The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

Of course NASA insists that everything will be just fine, but others are wondering if this lack of solar activity could potentially spawn another “Little Ice Age”

When solar activity gets really low, it can have the effect of a “mini ice age.” The period between 1645 and 1715 was marked by a prolonged sunspot minimum, and this corresponded to a downturn in temperatures in Europe and North America. Named after astronomers Edward Maunder and his wife Annie Russell Maunder, this period became known as the Maunder Minimum. It is also known as “The Little Ice Age.”

#2 When solar activity gets very low, it has traditionally meant very cold and very snowy winters, and right now we are seeing snow in places that are extremely unusual

The Egyptian capital, Cairo, was also turned white at the start of the month, despite the city not having snow in 112 years, and experiencing less than an inch of rain each year.

Many parts of Greece were covered in snow in early January, with low temperatures and strong frost.

The cold front named ‘Hephaestion’, after an Ancient Greek army general, thrashed the Greek landscape, bringing rain, sleet and ice in the east.

#3 Meanwhile, the oceans of the world just keep getting hotter and hotter.  In fact, ocean temperatures off the California coast have been setting new all-time record highs.  It is odd that this is taking place at a time of such low solar activity, but according to NBC News this is definitely happening…

The world’s oceans hit their warmest level in recorded history in 2019, according to a study published Monday that provides more evidence that Earth is warming at an accelerated pace.

The analysis, which also found that ocean temperatures in the last decade have been the warmest on record, shows the impact of human-caused warming on the planet’s oceans and suggests that sea-level rise, ocean acidification and extreme weather events could worsen as the oceans continue to absorb so much heat.

#4 There have always been wildfires, but we have never seen anything like this.  During the summer, countless catastrophic fires burned millions upon millions of acres in the Amazon rainforest, and this winter Australia’s fires have actually been a total of 46 percent larger than the fires that we witnessed in the Amazon.  Australia has never seen anything like this before, and according to NASA the smoke from these fires will completely circle the Earth

Once was bad enough, but smoke from Australia’s devastating bushfires is set to return to the country to complete a round-the-world trip that has seen it impact on air quality as far away as South America.

By Jan. 8, the smoke had made its way halfway around the world and will make at least one full circuit, according to scientists at NASA, citing satellite tracking data. New Zealand experienced severe air quality issues, while hazy skies and colorful sunsets and sunrises were seen in parts of Chile and Argentina.

#5 During the first half of 2020, volcanoes all over the world have been roaring to life and have been shooting giant clouds of hot ash miles into the sky.  For example, in the Philippines the Taal volcano shot ash nine miles into the air on Sunday, it has also been shooting scorching hot lava half a mile into the air, and the ground around the volcano is starting to crack wide open.

But even after all the devastation that we have already seen, authorities are warning that it could “re-explode at any moment”

The gray ash is knee-deep. It covers the homes, the bloated cadavers of cows and horses, their limbs protruding at unnatural angles in the shadow of a sulking volcano that could re-explode at any moment.

“My home is now gone,” said Melvin Mendoza, 39, a boatman who returned on Tuesday to Taal, the volcanic island in the middle of a freshwater lake just 40 miles south of Manila, which erupted on Sunday like an atomic bomb mushroom cloud.

Let us hope that this volcanic activity does not spread throughout that general area, because the largest super volcano caldera in the entire world has been discovered not too far from the Philippines

A team including members from GNS Science have identified an ancient mega-volcano that could have the largest known caldera on Earth.

The 150km (93.2 miles) wide feature is on the crest of Benham Rise, an oceanic plateau off the Philippines coast. In comparison, the caldera at Taupō is about 35km (21.8 miles) wide, and that at Yellowstone about 60km (37.3 miles).

#6 All of this is taking place while the north magnetic pole is moving toward Russia at a very rapid pace.  The following comes from CNN

The north magnetic pole has been slowly moving across the Canadian Arctic toward Russia since 1831, but its swift pace toward Siberia in recent years at a rate of around 34 miles per year has forced scientists to update the World Magnetic Model — used by civilian navigation systems, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and US and British militaries — a year ahead of schedule.

#7 On top of everything else, the Earth’s magnetic field has been steadily weakening over time, and this has some experts extremely concerned

In a forum on Quora, science fiction writer and journalist C Stuart Hardwick revealed that satellite data, such as those collected by the European Space Agency’s SWARM mission, revealed that the magnetic field has been weakening for about 5 percent each century. He noted that currently, the strength of the magnetic field is at 29.5 microteslas, which is 14 percent weaker than its previous state three centuries ago. According to Hardwick, the SWARM satellites detected increased deterioration within regions of the magnetic field over North America. He said these regions weakened by about 3.5 percent over the span of just three years.

Without our magnetic field, life on Earth could not exist for long.

And it doesn’t have to disappear completely to be a massive problem.  If it simply gets weak enough, dwelling on the surface is going to become exceedingly difficult.

As I keep warning, our planet is becoming increasing unstable, and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning.

The demands of life can often cause us to focus on things that don’t really matter.  Hopefully we can get more people to wake up while there is still time, because the clock is ticking for humanity and for our planet as a whole.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

The Senate trial begins today

(zerohedge)

Welcome To The Circus: Trump’s Impeachment Trial Begins Thursday With ‘Ceremony & Formality’

Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi finally decided to move forward with the impeachment process after an inexplicable delay. She insisted she was trying to guarantee a “fair trial” for the president in a Senate that’s deeply divided along partisan lines. Of course, as anybody who has been paying even the slightest attention to politics over the last decade and a half knows, guaranteeing a non-partisan impeachment trial in the senate is like trying to sweep up leaves on a windy day.

Now, the Senate proceedings will finally begin on Thursday with what Bloomberg describes as a “show of pageantry” involving the reading of the two articles of impeachment on the Senate floor and SCOTUS Chief Justice John Roberts swearing in all 100 senators as jurors.

The seven House Democrats selected by Pelosi to argue the impeachment case until next week will present the articles of impeachment to the Senate at noon in Washington. After that, the public likely won’t hear much from the mixed-gender group, who will act as “prosecutors” at President Trump’s senate trial, when it kicks off on Tuesday. Roberts is expected to arrive around 2 pm, when he will begin swearing in senators.

 

The House team is being led by Intel Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, who will read the articles of impeachment on Thursday. But another member of the detail told reporters that the team hasn’t yet started to discuss trial strategy.

“You know what? We haven’t discussed to that level of detail yet,” said Representative Val Demings of Florida.

That’s probably because the Dems’ goal is pretty straightforward.

Of course, successfully impeaching President Trump is essentially out of the question at this point. 67 senators would need to vote against him for the president to become the first American leader to be thrown out of office. Not a single Republican Senator has said they plan to vote against the president, and they have a sizable

Instead, Dems are hoping to air as much of the president’s dirty laundry as possible. To achieve that, they will need at least 4 moderate Republicans to break with their party and vote in favor of hearing new witnesses and new evidence, including possibly subpoenaing White House officials (including Mick Mulvaney and John Bolton) to testify.

The odds of President Trump being impeached are incredibly slim. At this point, Dems would consider it a resounding victory if they can win over a few Republicans to vote for hearing more evidence, allowing Dems to drag out the trial. Since the beginning, President Trump has insisted that he did nothing wrong, and although he has audaciously insisted that he wouldn’t mind a lengthier trial with witnesses, his advisors have clearly convinced the president that it’s in his best interest to keep the Senate trial as short as possible, Reuters reports.

At this point, we’d be willing to bet that millions of Americans have already forgotten that the basis for Trump’s impeachment was his July 25 call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has publicly denied that Trump tried to strongarm him into investigating Hunter Biden, the son of Trump’s chief political rival, Joe Biden.

 

As Dems cling to a fantasy of impartiality, Republican Senate No. 2 John Cornyn of Texas made a good point.

Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas said an impeachment trial is a “unique process” that is unlike a regular court proceeding.

“They call us a jury but we’re hardly disinterested,” Cornyn said. “So the analogies we are all trying to make” to judicial trials “have their limitations.”

Ultimately, it will fall to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to prevent Dems from winning over Republican votes to hear from witnesses. If he’s successful, Senators will only consider evidence collected by the House during its investigation of the president.

Bottom line: The Dems don’t need to impeach Trump to “win”.

END

This will embolden the Democrats as the GAO, the Federal Watchdog, states that the Trump administration withheld assistance to Ukraine.

(zerohedge)

Federal Watchdog Finds Trump Admin Illegally Withheld Assistance To Ukraine

The nation’s top watchdog has concluded that the White House violated federal law when it withheld nearly $400 million in congressionally authorized US aid last year.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act (ICA), which “does not permit the President to substitute his own policy priorities for those that Congress has enacted into law,” according to a Thursday report.

Of note, the GAO has reached similar conclusions against both Bush administrations and the Clinton administration. In December of 2018, the agency concluded that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) withheld $95 million from the Coast Guard – funds which were eventually released.

Congressional Democrats have accused Trump of using the withheld aid in a quid-pro-quo in exchange for investigations into Joe Biden and his son Hunter, as well as matters related to the 2016 US election. While House investigators were unable to prove that the funds were used as leverage – including whether Trump directly gave an order to do so, Trump was impeached for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress on December 18.

The White House claims its Office of Management and Budget (OMB) paused the funds over corruption concerns. That said, emails released in late December reveal that a senior OMB official directed the Department of Defense to pause the funds less than two hours after a July 25 call between Trump and Ukraine’s new President, Volodomyr Zelensky.

The GAO, however, concluded that “OMB withheld funds for a policy reason, which is not permitted under the Impoundment Control Act.”

Trump has attacked the impeachment charges as politically motivated. White House budget officials have defended their power to stop the money from being given to the Defense Department, arguing both congressional lawmakers and executive branch officials routinely demand delays on funding already signed into law.

The report brings new scrutiny to a chain of events at the White House’s Office of Management and Budget last year. When top White House officials gave directives to the Pentagon to withhold aid for Ukraine, some OMB officials objected, warning the halt could be improper. At least two officials resigned, in part over concerns about the Ukraine money. –Washington Post

Trump and the White House have vehemently denied wrongdoing.

Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) who requested the GAO report, tweeted on Thursday: “This bombshell legal opinion from the independent @USGAO demonstrates, without a doubt, that the Trump Administration illegally withheld assistance from Ukraine and the public evidence shows that the president himself ordered this illegal act.”

Senator Chris Van Hollen

@ChrisVanHollen

This bombshell legal opinion from the independent @USGAO demonstrates, without a doubt, that the Trump Administration illegally withheld assistance from Ukraine and the public evidence shows that the president himself ordered this illegal act.

View image on Twitter
end
Interesting: Ukraine asks the FBI to help in their probe of an alleged Burisma hack
(zerohedge)

Ukraine Asks FBI To Help Probe Alleged Burisma Hack

Ukraine has asked the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to assist in its probe of a suspected cyber attack by Russian military hackers on Burisma – an energy company owned by a notoriously corrupt oligarch who paid Joe Biden’s son Hunter more than a fortune 500 board member to sit on its board.

 

Burisma office in Kiev

President Trump’s request to investigate Burisma’s relationship with the Bidens is at the heart of impeachment proceedings brought by Democrats.

On Monday, the New York Times reported that Silicon Valley cybersecurity firm Area 1 claims that Russian hackers from a military intelligence unit known formerly as the G.R.U. operating under the alias “Fancy Bear,” used so-called phishing emails that appear designed to steal usernames and passwords, to gain access to Burisma’s network.

“It is noted that the hacker attack most likely took place in cooperation with the Russian special services,” said Ukrainian Interior Ministry official Artyom Minyailo at a briefing, where he added that the FBI had been asked to assist in the investigation. The interior minister later announced an investigation into claims that former US ambassador to Kiev, Marie Yovanovitch, was illegally surveiled.

Of note, Area 1 was co-founded by two former NSA hackers – one of whom was a lead employee at cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike, which was the only company allowed to analyze the DNC servers in connection with a 2016 breach – which it concluded “fancy bear” was also behind. Area 1 founder Oren Falkowitz is an active donor to Democrats, contributing to the 2020 election campaigns of both Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Kevin McCarthy @GOPLeader: Senators are required to be present for the duration of an impeachment trial. So by holding on to the impeachment articles for so long, Speaker Pelosi is rigging the Iowa caucuses for Biden.  Once again, the Democrat Party establishment is trying to sideline Bernie Sanders.

General Flynn has withdrawn his guilty plea due to the “government’s bad faith, vindictiveness, and breach of the plea agreement.”  The filing also alleges that prosecutor Van Grack wanted Gen. Flynn to fabricate testimony. https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1217255955060154368

“Gulags Weren’t That Bad”: Sanders Staffer Says Trump Supporters Will Need to be ‘Re-Educated In Camps’ – The Sanders organizer also predicts violence if Bernie doesn’t get the Democratic nomination, and that “Milwaukee will burn.”…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gulags-werent-bad-sanders-staffer-says-trump-supporters-will-need-be-re-educated-camps

The NYT reports Russians hacked Burisma to procure dirt on the Bidens.  The MSM are feverishly playing the Russian hacking card.  We wonder why.  What is coming?

@JordanSchachtel: The latest political frenzy, this “Russia hacked Biden & Burisma” claim, is based off of a 5pg report (yes, 5 whole pages, mostly graphics) by an anti-Trump security org that is working at no cost (weird, right?) for 2020 Dems.

@ProfMJCleveland: Democrats appear to be re-running their 2016 fake collusion playbook, once against to distract from the Democrats wrongdoing.

@ByronYork: The bottom line is one reason Clinton survived is that his closest associates, in particular Vernon Jordan and Betty Currie, experienced acute memory loss before the grand jury… Don’t forget that Clinton’s former business partner went to jail for a year and a half rather than testify about their work together. Clinton pardoned her on his last day in office.

GOP Sen. @ChuckGrassley: Only in Washington would FISA court hope to restore credibility after FISA abuse by hiring Kris, a person who publicly denied FISA abuse ever happened to oversee reforms. If u want to improve public confidence+ prevent civil liberties violations don’t hire fox to fix henhouse!!!

Democrats Block a Vote to Support Iran Protesters

The resolution would have condemned the Government of Iran for killing 1,500 Iranian citizens who were protesting their government, as well as condemned the Government of Iran for shooting down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, killing 176 people…

https://dailycaller.com/2020/01/14

The House voted 228-193 to send impeachment articles to the Senate.

‘Sad’ Pelosi Grins While Signing Impeachment Articles. Internet Explodes Over Her Golden Pens.

Pelosi had dozens of taxpayer-funded golden pens made for the event and passed them out to those who attended and reportedly posed for photos after the signing…

https://www.dailywire.com/news/sad-pelosi-grins-while-signing-impeachment-articles-internet-explodes-over-her-golden-pens/

@SteveScalise: So much for “somber” and “solemn.”  House Dems are so excited about impeachment that they’re passing out commemorative pens and grinning for photos at a celebration ceremony.

Pelosi’s impeachment signing theatrics were so appalling that even a CNN panel bashed her for it.

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1217579231611322370?s=09

MSNBC reported last night that Pelosi’s impeachment pens have ‘United’ misspelled on them.

Pelosi gave Trump a huge break by appointing Schiff to be lead impeachment manager.  The optics of the move is horrible; and his performance to date has been poor – plus, he’s a fact witness.  Other managers: Rep. Jerry Nadler, Rep. Zoe Lofgren, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, Rep. Val Demings, Rep. Jason Crow and Rep. Sylvia Garcia.  There were only four impeachment managers for Clinton.

If Pelosi wanted a serious impeachment trial, she shouldn’t have picked Adam Schiff to manage it

Schiff played a role in orchestrating the entire scandal, leaking knowledge about the whistleblower’s complaint to the media while reportedly advising the whistleblower..

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/if-nancy-pelosi-wants-serious-impeachment-trial-she-shouldnt-have-picked-adam-schiff-to-manage-it

Pelosi: “The American voters in America should decide who our president is. Not Vladimir Putin.”

Pelosi admitted impeachment was political: “He has been impeached forever. They can never erase that.”

“This is a political impeachment. Democrats said that President @realDonaldTrump is impeached for life.’ This shows the true motivation, I believe, of the other side. It is their dislike for this president and the good work he is doing.” – @RepDougCollins

OAN’s @jennfranconews: House Judiciary chair Jerry Nadler on impeachment: “Some people said, well, let the election take care of it. He’s {Pres. Trump} trying to cheat in that election.” “So it is essential that we bring this impeachment to stop the president…from rigging the next election.”

Fox’s @ChadPergram: Nadler says they need a “fair trial in the Senate.” Says a trial without witnesses is a “coverup.” Top GOPer on Judiciary Cmte Collins says there was “no due process at all in those 71 days” of the impeachment probe

GOP @RepMarkMeadows: House Democrats—who rammed through impeachment articles with no underlying crime (first time in history), didn’t allow Trump ANY counsel during secret depositions, and gave POTUS ZERO chance to defend himself until the last minute—now want to talk about “fairness

U of Chicago Prof. @Charles_Lipson: Trump’s impeachment is rooted in a deeper battle over the future of Washington’s #AdministrativeState and the entrenched interests who profit from it… This battle is the backdrop of unending efforts to investigate #Trump and now the #ImpeachmentTrial.

Impeachment and the Fight over the Deep State

The permanent government has bared its teeth at Trump not because he is uncouth, erratic, or untruthful or because he “obstructed Congress” or “abused his office” (whatever those mean). They oppose Trump because he threatens their once-secure political world. He is abolishing long-standing regulations at an astonishing clip and appointing federal judges who, for the first time in decades, refuse to ratify far-reaching regulations and executive orders that are only loosely tethered to statutory laws…

    All Democrats oppose these efforts to curtail America’s centralized, activist state and limit its bureaucratic power and autonomy. They are joined by their media allies..

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/01/15/impeachment_and_the_fight_over_the_deep_state_142152.html

@seanmdav: Senators are not sworn in “as jurors” because they are not jurors and the oath says nothing about them being jurors. Per Rule IV(1)(d)(III), Senators swear an oath to do “justice according to the Constitution and the laws[.]”

@ChadPergram: GOP TN Sen Blackburn wants Dem presidential candidates to recuse themselves in a Senate trial: Bennet, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren, cannot sit in judgment of the very President they seek to replace. To participate..would be a failure of the oath they took to be (impartial)

Amir Tsarfati @BeholdIsrael: There is a direct link between the landing of Syrian cargo planes yesterday at T4 from Tehran and the assault that followed. Israel attacked last night warehouses that already hosted weapons that were unloaded last month as well as UAVs and weapons that have arrived hours before.

The Dem debate on Tuesday night was a debacle so bad that MSM allies slammed the field.

MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough: “Nobody looked good on that debate stage last night… It was everyone’s weakest performance.”

CNN’s Van Jones: “Tonight for me was dispiriting. Democrats are going to have to do better than what we saw tonight. There was nothing I saw tonight that would be able to take Donald Trump out.”

Al Sharpton: “I didn’t see anybody on the stage last night… that can take on Donald Trump.”

@TomBevanRCP after debate: Lowest energy spin room I’ve ever seen. Two notches above a morgue.

Warren enraged Bernie supporters by going Kavanaugh on him – alleging that Bernie in 2018 said a woman can’t win in 2020.  Bernie vehemently denied the charge.  CNN highlighted the allegation and seemingly sided with Warren.  After the debate, Warren snubbed Bernie’s attempt to shake hands.  This further aggravated Bernie supporters – especially those who remember that CNN gave debate questions to Hillary Clinton in the primaries to help her against Sanders.

Bernie Sanders campaign rips CNN: Debate ‘a cringe-worthy moment’ – claiming bias over the wording of several questions.  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/bernie-sanders-campaign-rips-cnn-debate-a-cringe-worthy-moment

Rolling Stone: CNN’s Debate Performance Was Villainous and Shameful

Over a 24-hour period before, during, and after the debate, CNN bid farewell to what remained of its reputation as a nonpolitical actor via a remarkable stretch of factually dubious reporting, bent commentary, and heavy-handed messaging.  The cycle began with a “bombshell” exposé by CNN reporter MJ Lee. Released on the eve of the debate, Lee reported Warren’s claim that Sanders told her a woman couldn’t win in a December 2018 meeting.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/january-democratic-debate-2020-cnn-bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-938365/

CNN: Warren accused Sanders in tense post-debate exchange of calling her a ‘liar’ on national TV

Warren: “I think you called me a liar on national TV.” Sanders: “What?” Warren: “I think you called me a liar on national TV.”  Sanders: “You know, let’s not do it right now. If you want to have that discussion, we’ll have that discussion.”  Warren: “Anytime.”  Sanders: “You called me a liar.”  “You told me — all right, let’s not do it now…  https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/15/politics/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-debate-audio/index.html

@GOP: Tom Steyer claims climate change to be one of his top issues, but his past business dealings prove him to be hypocritical.  Steyer’s campaign is pushing to end fossil fuels, but the hedge fund he started heavily invested in coal mining AND fossil fuel projects.

Team Bloomberg @Mike2020: Test your political knowledge: SPOT THE MEATBALL THAT LOOKS LIKE MIKE.   https://twitter.com/Mike2020/status/1217254115132235776

@stclairashley: A man running to become president… is tweeting photos of himself on a meatball.  Please tell me it’s not real.  Petition to only refer to Mike Bloomberg as Meatball Mike from now on

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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