JAN 22//GOLD DOWN $1.00 TO $1557.00//SILVER UP ONE CENT TO $17.83//MASSIVE INCREASE OF 19.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//HUGE QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER (760,000 OZ) AND A GOOD QUEUE JUMP IN GOLD AT 2,000 OZ//CORONAVIRUS IS NOW IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES AS THOSE INFLICTED HAVE TRIPLED//LIBYA’S AIRPORT ATTACKED BY GENERAL HAFTER//LEBANON HAS A NEW GOVERNMENT BACKED BY HEZBOLLAH ..THEY ARE ON THE VERGE OF DEFAULT//FED’S NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX PLUMMETS

GOLD:$1557.00 DOWN $1.00    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.83 UP 1 CENT  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Gold :  $1558.75

 

silver:  $17.85

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/23

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,556.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/21/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/23/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 7
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 8
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 14 7
800 C MAREX SPEC 3
880 C CITIGROUP 1
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 23 23
MONTH TO DATE: 2,680

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 23 NOTICE(S) FOR 2300 OZ (0.0715 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2680 NOTICES FOR 268,000 OZ  (8.3359 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

152 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 760,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 669 for  3,345,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8711 DOWN $69 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8797 UP 72

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2258 CONTRACTS FROM 236,116 DOWN TO 233,858 WITH OUR STRONG  24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  2817 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2817 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2817 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2817 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 14.08 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

3.360     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 24 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 559 CONTRACTS. OR 2.795 MILLION OZ…..

THE TREND SEEMS TO BE THAT OUR BANKERS ARE BECOMING LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE COMEX SILVER (AND GOLD) PAPER. THE EMPHASIS IS NOW ON INCREASINGLY SUPPLYING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

20,030 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 20,030 CONTRACTS) OR 100.15 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1430 CONTRACTS OR 7.153 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN: 100.15 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.293% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          100.15 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 100.15 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2258, WITH THE STRONG 24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2817 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 559 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2817 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2258 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 24 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.82 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.180 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 169% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 152 NOTICE(S) FOR  760,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 3,360,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 13 CONTRACTS TO 793,829 AND MOVING MOVING AWAY FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 799,541 (SET JAN 16/2016)  AND FURTHER FROM  OUR PREVIOUS  RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $2.00 IN PRICING ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY//  

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  STRONG SIZED 10,466 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  10,466 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0; JUNE. 1000 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 793,829,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,453 CONTRACTS: 13 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 10,466 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 10,453 CONTRACTS OR 1,045,300 OZ OR 32.51 TONNES.  TUESDAY WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF $2.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 32.51  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $2.00) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR GOOD GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (32.51 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 120,313 CONTRACTS OR 12,031,300 oz OR 374.21 TONNES (14 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8593 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 374.21 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 374.21/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.54% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:    374.21  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 374.21 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 886 WITH THE SMALL  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK TUESDAY($2.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,466 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,466 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 10,453 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

10,466 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 13 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 33.51 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.00 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY

 

A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 19.33 PAPER TONNES

 

 

 

 

JAN 22/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 898.82 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 1 CENTS TODAY

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV…

A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..

 

JAN 22/INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2258 CONTRACTS from 236,116 DOWN TO 233,858 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 2817

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  2817:  AND MAY: 0; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2817 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2258  CONTRACTS TO THE 2817 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 559 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.305 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 3.3600 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2817 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.61 POINTS OR 0.26%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 355.71 POINTS OR 1.27%   /The Nikkei closed UP 166.79 POINTS OR 0.70%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .95%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9024 /Oil UP TO 58.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.21 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9024 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9045 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/USA

skepticism is mounting on phase one of the trade deal..it is doomed from the start!

(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS

China is now already blaming the slowdown in 2020 to the Coronavirus epidemic

(zerohedge)

iii)CHINA/THE GLOBE

Confirmed cases of the coronavirus now climbs to 481 and it has spread to several countries

(zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

This will be troublesome for the EU as the 5 star leader, De Maio quits and that will set up Salvini to lead Italy out of the EMU

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)LIBYA/TURKEY/SYRIA

It seems that the Syrian mercenaries paid by Turkey are flying to Italy.  They really had no intention on fighting in Libya but were looking for a cheap way to get to Italy

 

(COURTESY AlMasdarNews)

ii)IRAN

Yesterday a brazen attack on a key IRGC commander.  This guy was responsible for mowing down protestors who complained in November on the removal of fuel subsidies
(zerohedge)

iii)Libya

Tripoli’s only commercial target has been targeted by 6 missiles no doubt fired by the LNA under Hafter

(zerohedge)

iv)LEBANON

Lebanon forms a new government backed 100% by Hezbollah and they are backed by Iran.  Lebanon, once the crown jewel of the Middle East is within a whisker of declaring bankruptcy as they have no foreign reserves and debts are piled high.  The current amount of Lebanon Pound per dollar is 2500 lb per$.  Goods are disappearing fast

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

CANADA

Now the next country to experience declining growth is Canada.  The Loonie tumbles after that Bank of Canada removes “appropriate rate” language signaling a pssible cut in interest rates

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Pam and Russ discuss the fraud behind WallStreet with their phony research analysis and how they hype firms.  He gives example with the money losing company We Work

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

ii)This is a must read as Craig Hemke discusses what is going on with Palladium.  The rise in price is not necessarily speculators..it is the shorts who are trying badly to get out of their massive shortfall.

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Illinois

Their pension fiances are a mess

(Shuster/Illinoispolicy.org)

b)The Fed’s National Activity index plunges into negative territory showing slowing growth

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Amazing:  Joe Biden in a memo tells the media what to say about the Ukrainian mess that Hunter Biden and his father created

(/John Solomon//zerohedge)

b)Adam Schiff has been caught mischaracterizing an email from Parnas to Guiliani referencing a mr Z.  Schiff states that Mr Z was President Zelensky but in fact Mr Z is Zlochevsky, the head of Burisma. Schiff redacted an email which collaborated the real Mr Z as Zlochevsky

(zerohedge)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY TINY SIZED 13 CONTRACTS TO 793,829 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR RECORD SET THIS PAST WEEK: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND COMING CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH A SLIGHT LOSS OF $2.00 IN GOLD PRICING // TUESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

IT NOW SEEMS THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE COMEX PAPER. THEY ARE CONCENTRATING MORE ON THE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,466 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 10,466; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0,  JUNE : 00 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 10,466 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 10,453 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,466 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A TINY SIZED 13 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $2.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED A STRONG SD  10,453 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  10,453 CONTRACTS OR 1,045,300 OZ OR 32.51 TONNES.  

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  793,829 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 79.38 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,469 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,469/2200 OR 112.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 38 open interest left to be served upon, for a LOSS of 58 contracts.   We had 78 notices served up on yesterday so we surprisingly gained another 20 contracts or an additional 2,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF ONLY 30,105 in contracts DOWN to 348,843.  

March lost 153 contracts to stand at an open interest of, 1090.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 26,360 contacts up to 306,651 oi contracts.

We had 23 open interest notices served upon today for 2300 oz

the front month of February is not contracting enough (WITH RESPECT TO OI) and thus it seems we will have another strong amount of gold standing for delivery. We have just 7 more reading days before first day notice.  

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2258 CONTRACTS FROM 236,116 DOWN TO 233,858 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 24 CENT FALL IN PRICING/TUESDAY.

AS IN GOLD, OUR BANKERS ARE LOATHE TO SUPPLY ADDITIONAL SILVER COMEX PAPER.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a GAIN of 82 contracts TO 155. We had 70 notices served on yesterday, so we gained A WHOPPING 152 contracts or an additional 760,000 oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!!  Somebody today was badly in need of silver.

 

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a GAIN of 4 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  455.  March is a very active month and here we witness a loss of 3305 contracts UP to 179,920

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A STRONG FEBRUARY SILVER STANDING FOR METAL.

 

 

We, today, had 152 notice(s) filed for 760,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 346,844 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  545,215 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

JAN 22/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

578.70 oz

Delaware

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
23 notice(s)
 2300 OZ
(0.0715 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
15 contracts
(1500 oz)
0.0466 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2680 notices
268000 OZ
8.3359 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into

everybody else: 0

 

total deposits:  0  oz

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Delaware:  578.70 oz

18 kilobars

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  578.70 oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  ADDED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

207,363.857 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 23 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2680) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (38 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (23 x 100 oz per contract) equals 269,500 OZ OR 8.3825 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2680 x 100 oz)  + (38)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (23 x 100 oz )which equals 269500 oz standing OR 8.3825 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED 20 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 2000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.956 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.3825 TONNES

 

total: 130,27 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 130.27  tonnes

 

Thus:

130.27 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 111.02 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.956 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,334,232.623 oz or  41.50 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 112,383.13 oz (34.956 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   210,391.357 oz x ( 6.54403 TONNES)//
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  112,383.13  (34.956 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,699,951.999 oz 270.60 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 22/2020
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 20,044.545 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
614,041.700 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
152
CONTRACT(S)
(760,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
 15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  669 contracts

3,345,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into CNT: 614,041.700  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  614,041.700  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

i) Out of  CNT:  19,588.005 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 19,585.005   oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) out of Delaware::  19,585.005 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  85.295 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.319 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 152 contract(s) FOR 760,,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 669 x 5,000 oz =3,345,,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (155) and the number of notices served upon today 152 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 669 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (155- number of notices served upon today (152) x 5000 oz equals 3,360,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 225 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1,125,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 152 notice(s) filed for 760,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  59,858 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 142,307 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 142,307 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 711 million  OZ   102.% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.11% ((JAN 22/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.53% to NAV (JAN 22/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.11%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.45 TRADING 15.04///DISCOUNT  2.68

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 22/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 879.49 tonnes

*IN LAST 746 TRADING DAYS: 38.63 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 646 TRADING DAYS: A NET 128.42. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 22.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

353.830 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.82/ and libor 6 month duration 1.83

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .01

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.83%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.92

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.09

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Pam and Russ discuss the fraud behind WallStreet with their phony research analysis and how they hype firms.  He gives example with the money losing company We Work

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Wall Street is a fraud-monetization system with a money-printing unit called the NY Fed

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Sen. Bernie Sanders has come closer than anyone on the presidential campaign trail in defining what Wall Street actually does. Sanders has repeatedly stated at his rallies that “the business model of Wall Street is fraud.”

That analysis is correct but abbreviated. Sanders needs to go further. It’s not just Wall Street’s business model that has left the United States with the greatest wealth inequality since the Roaring ’20ss (a time when Wall Street investment banks were also allowed to own deposit-taking banks). It’s how Wall Street is monetizing that fraud that poses an existential threat to the solvency of the United States and the impoverishment of millions of Americans.

… 

The attempted WeWork initial public offering of last year was a classic example of how Wall Street can put lipstick on a pig, pass it off as a hot new startup company, and sell its shares, which were overpriced by about $40 billion, to unwary public pension funds and mutual funds that dominate millions of Americans’ 401(k) plans. The IPO failed to materialize simply because alternative media sent the dirty details of the offering viral, forcing business media to cover the story.

Rather than being a hot new tech startup with oodles of potential, WeWork was a money-losing real estate leasing company with a grifter as its CEO. That, however, didn’t stop two of the largest law firms, Skadden Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom and Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett, from representing the company and the underwriters, respectively, and it didn’t stop two of the biggest firms on Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs, from trying to unload the dog of a deal on investors for a hefty underwriting fee.

That’s what we mean by monetization of fraud. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/bernie-sanders-hasnt-quite-captur…

* * *

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Bernie Sanders Hasn’t Quite Captured What Wall Street Does: It’s Actually a Fraud-Monetization System with a Money-Printing Unit Called the New York Fed

It's Time to Take Away the New York Fed's Money Button

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 21, 2020 ~

Senator Bernie Sanders has come closer than anyone on the Presidential campaign trail in defining what Wall Street actually does. Sanders has repeatedly stated at his rallies that “the business model of Wall Street is fraud.”

That analysis is correct but abbreviated. Sanders needs to go further. It’s not just Wall Street’s business model that has left the United States with the greatest wealth inequality since the Roaring Twenties (a time when Wall Street investment banks were also allowed to own deposit-taking banks). It’s how Wall Street is monetizing that fraud that poses an existential threat to the solvency of the United States and the impoverishment of millions of Americans.

The attempted WeWork Initial Public Offering (IPO) of last year was a classic example of how Wall Street can put lipstick on a pig, pass it off as a hot new startup company, and sell its shares, which were overpriced by about $40 billion, to unwary public pension funds and mutual funds that dominate millions of Americans’ 401(k) plans. The IPO failed to materialize simply because alternative media sent the dirty details of the offering viral, forcing business media to cover the story.

Rather than being a hot new tech startup with oodles of potential, WeWork was a money-losing real estate leasing company with a grifter as its CEO. That, however, didn’t stop two of the largest law firms, Skadden Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom and Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett, from representing the company and the underwriters, respectively, and it didn’t stop two of the biggest firms on Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, from trying to unload the dog of a deal on investors for a hefty underwriting fee.

That’s what we mean by monetization of fraud. (See The Dickensian Tale of the WeWork IPO.)

Now you may be thinking that WeWork might have been just an aberration where due diligence slipped through the cracks by a bunch of overworked bean counters. Unfortunately, this is the way that Wall Street has been issuing IPOs for a very, very long time.

In 2003 the Securities and Exchange Commission settled charges against ten of the largest Wall Street firms over how their research analysts had been issuing fraudulent reports to the public on IPOs. The analysts were sending internal emails to colleagues calling the offerings “dogs” and “crap” while telling the investing public that these were great companies with bright futures and putting a “buy” recommendation on the stock.

Those fraudulent research reports and “buy” recommendations led to a $4 trillion bust in the stock market, known as the dot.com crash. While public pensions and individuals investors suffered enormous losses, the Wall Street analysts and their bosses got to keep their fat bonuses.

This is another example of long-running monetization of fraud schemes on Wall Street.

The epic financial collapse on Wall Street in 2008 was, reduced to its basic terms, simply the end game of Wall Street banks’ efforts to monetize their frauds. Insiders at the major Wall Street banks had told their bosses that the mortgage underwriting department was issuing mortgage loans to people who could not possibly afford to repay the loan. They warned their bosses to reject the loans. But they were overruled because the Wall Street banks had a grander scheme: they would make money securitizing the loans; they would make more money creating synthetic derivatives to bet on the loans; they would make even more money shorting the loans based on their insider knowledge that the loans were doomed to default; and they would make even more money allowing hedge funds to pay them to assemble these dogs into new securitizations so that they hedge funds could make billions shorting the pile of dung. (See herehere and here.)

The 2008 crash and the ensuing Great Recession were the worst economic disasters in the United States since the Great Depression. Millions of Americans lost their homes to foreclosure, millions more lost their jobs as a result of the economic contraction, and trillions of dollars of household wealth was wiped out.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) issued a report attempting to capture for the American people what had gone so wrong on Wall Street and how Federal regulators and Congress had failed to catch the corruption in time to prevent the epic crash. If you were asked to give a one-sentence explanation for what happened on Wall Street from the findings of the FCIC report, you could do no better than this: Wall Street was monetizing fraud.

The dot.com bust in 2000 and the epic financial crash in 2008 were both the well-documented result of Wall Street monetizing its fraud and its execs and traders getting to keep the multi-million dollar salaries and bonuses that ensued from that fraud monetization.

The reason that Wall Street continues to be allowed by Congress to pursue its fraud monetization schemes is that Wall Street has captured both Congress and its federal regulators. A significant number of members of Congress are beholding to Wall Street to fund their political campaigns. Without that funding, the incumbent doesn’t stand a chance against their opponent, who will tell Wall Street what they want to hear and grab Wall Street’s funding. Federal regulators are either looking to return to their seven figure jobs on Wall Street or are auditioning to get one.

The revolving door has now even corrupted the accounting profession that audits our publicly-traded companies, as recently reported in-depth by The Project On Government Oversight. (See “How Accountants Took Washington’s Revolving Door to a Criminal Extreme.”)

But what would happen if a criminal network actually obtained a government power to financially resuscitate itself after each of its crime waves? Wouldn’t that make it the most dangerous threat to national security?

On April 9, 2019, the nonprofit Wall Street watchdog, Better Markets, released a study titled: “Wall Street’s Six Biggest Bailed-Out Banks: Their RAP Sheets & Their Ongoing Crime Spree.” It should have made headlines on the front pages of every major newspaper in the U.S. Instead, it was effectively ignored by mainstream media.

The report notes this:

“Of the more than $29 trillion in bailouts, just the six biggest banks in the country (the ‘Six Megabanks’) received more than $8.2 trillion in lifesaving support from American taxpayers during the 2008 financial crash, or nearly one-third of the total bailouts provided to the entire financial system. This was a massive transfer of wealth from Main Street to Wall Street to prevent the bankruptcy of just six banks, supposedly because they were vital to the economic security and prosperity of Main Street Americans.”

Who provided the bulk of that $29 trillion in bailout money to resuscitate banks engaged in serial frauds? It was the New York Fed, another captured regulator with one critically important and critically dangerous difference from other regulators: it has the ability to electronically create money out of thin air.

As a sign of just how brazen and disastrously broken the U.S. financial system has become, with no hearings in Congress, with no blaring headlines on the front pages of newspapers, the New York Fed turned on its money spigot to Wall Street again on September 17, 2019. It was the first time this has happened since the financial crisis. For the past four months the New York Fed has been spewing hundreds of billions of dollars each week to Wall Street’s trading houses, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 3,000 points, with no accountability to anyone or explanation as to why Wall Street needs or deserves this money.

Americans must engage in demanding accountability from their elected, and as yet uncaptured, members of Congress.

END

This is a must read as Craig Hemke discusses what is going on with Palladium.  The rise in price is not necessarily speculators..it is the shorts who are trying badly to get out of their massive shortfall.

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The magic palladium bullet in 2020

 Section: 

3:29p ET Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The palladium market, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money, is experiencing an extraordinary short squeeze and its structure and controllers are the same as those of the gold and silver markets. Thus, Hemke writes, palladium may be hinting at the future for the monetary metals. His analysis is headlined “The Magic Palladium Bullet in 2020” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-magic-palladium-bullet-in-2020.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

The Magic Palladium Bullet in 2020 – Craig Hemke (21/01/2020)

The Magic Palladium Bullet in 2020 - Craig Hemke (21/01/2020)
By Craig Hemke Yesterday 13000 ViewsNo comments

January 21,2020

We’ve been monitoring and writing about palladium since the price first broke to new all-time highs in 2018. With the chart now seeming to go parabolic—and with misunderstanding and misinformation also at all-time highs—it seemed a great time to post this update.

Let’s start by going back to the beginning. Here are links to four palladium-focused posts written in 2019. If you only read one, make sure it’s the second one, titled “The Magic Palladium Bullet”.

Why post all those links? Just to demonstrate that I know a little bit about this stuff. As opposed to the army of “analysts” on Twitter, I didn’t just stumble onto the monthly chart last week and now feel compelled to author an opinion. Additionally, most of this new analysis and opinion misses the most important point: The situation in palladium is unique, and it holds the possibility of exposing…and even threatening…the entire LBMA/COMEX fractional reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme.

Understand that palladium, just like gold and silver, is overseen by the bullion banks, which are responsible for physical delivery in London. There are OTC forwards, leases, and unallocated accounts. There are also futures that trade in New York. Through these processes, The Banks manage a fractional reserve system of just in time physical delivery. As gold and silver investors, we await the day when a “run” on these bullion banks exposes the lack of physical metal behind this system. The current price action in palladium suggests the possibility that this “run” may have already begun.

First, it is very important to note that this move in palladium is NOT being “driven by speculators” who are “rushing to profit” and “blowing a bubble”. Below is the most recent Commitment of Traders report for COMEX palladium. Note the total contract open interest and then note the NET positioning of the Commercials and the Large Speculators:

Now compare the information above to the CoT report data shown below from late 2018, when price was first challenging the previous all-time highs made in 2001. Do you see any significant changes over the past fifteen months, even though price has more than doubled?

Thus, I think we can state that what we’re seeing in palladium is NOT a speculator driven and COMEX based paper frenzy. And if the paper/digital COMEX market isn’t the driver of price, then what is? Let’s check London, and when we do, we’ll find our answer.

First see this screenshot taken from that “Magic Bullet” post of February 2019.

In any physical metal supply squeeze, you will always hear two warning alarms:

  1. Extraordinarily high lease rates for metal in London
  2. Backwardation of price on the futures board in New York

Those two conditions were noted in February of last year, and now in January of 2020, the situation has dramatically worsened (for The Banks). First, let’s check the current London lease rates. We noted rates as high as 20% a year ago. This was considered outrageous at the time. And now, precious metals expert David Jensen reports that the one month lease rate for physical palladium in London exceeded 36% on Monday, January 20.

And now you’re likely asking yourself what the heck this means. In simplest terms: if I’m a Bank like JPMorgan and I’m on the hook to physically deliver today 1,000 ounces of palladium that I don’t currently have, I have to borrow (lease) it from some other Bank. As of today, that other Bank is going to charge me a 36% annualized rate, and it’s not payable in cash. Instead the “interest” is payable only in additional physical metal.

So, I borrow that 1,000 ounces to settle the trade today. However, I now have to come up with 1,030 ounces to pay you back next month! (36% for a year is roughly 3% per month.) Well, hell’s bells! If I can’t get 1,000 ounces today, where am I supposed to come up with 1,030 ounces a month from now?? Thus these extreme lease rates are clearly indicative of a physical supply squeeze and it’s a squeeze that’s almost guaranteed to get continually worse if a new stash of readily available palladium doesn’t suddenly appear.

(Oh, and by the way, how did the Bank in our example get in this physical jam in the first place? Because, as noted above, the LBMA/COMEX palladium market is structured almost identically to the LBMA/COMEX gold and silver markets. The bullion banks are massively over-levered after years of derivative and lease shenanigans!)

Next, let’s check the futures board in New York. Last year, the backwardation from spot to front-month was present but not extreme. On that screenshot above, note that it was $20-30. As of Monday the 20th, the backwardation from spot to Mar20 is now an incredible 10%!

So now that you understand that it is NOT auto industry physical demand and it is NOT speculator paper demand that is driving price, does the chart below look a bit more intriguing? Sure, it looks parabolic, and yes, it appears unsustainable. A serious and sharp pullback may appear at any time. However, given what you now know about the actual factors that have been driving price for nearly two years, does this not also look like a chart that is attempting to tell you something?

And what might that chart be telling you? That the LBMA/COMEX pricing scheme for palladium may be on the verge of collapse. And if the pricing scheme for palladium collapses, how long might it be before gold and silver investors worldwide—of whom 99% trust The Banks to hold their unallocated accounts and custody their metal—begin to doubt the ability of The Banks to fulfill their promises of delivery?

END

J Johnson’s Express:

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/01/22/the-paper-stays-as-physical-precious-metals-go-away/

The Paper Stays As Physical Precious Metals Go Away!

Posted January 22nd, 2020 at 9:01 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,

      Gold is trading lower, with the price now at $1,555.70, down $2.20 and after the low of $1,550.00 was hit with the high at $1,559.80. Silver is following with its trade at $17.77, down 3.8 cents and recovering from its low at $17.675 with the high to beat at $17.86. The US Dollar still won’t budge at all, regardless of the actions within the political arena, with the trade at 97.355, up 6.1 points after hitting 97.460 with the low at 97.315. Of course all this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after another Veritas Video came out showing more of what children think just after the education they received from hard core socialists.

      Gold under the Venezuelan Bolivar, is now worth 15,537.55 Bolivar proving a loss of 14.99 with Silver at 177.478 Bolivar shaving off 2.297 since yesterday’s early morning report. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold valued at 93,374.74 Peso’s reducing its value by 6.23 with Silver trading at 1,066.56 taking out 13.42 A-Peso’s. The Turkish Lira’s value now shows Gold worth 9,213.60 Lira showing a reduction of 26.92 with Silver also getting hit losing 1.555 T-Lira’s with its last price at 105.258.

      January Silver’s Delivery Demands are in direct contrast to the Comex price as the Demand Count now stands at 155 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts after yesterday’s 175 count increase in Volume that still wasn’t important enough to post a price. That’s right, another unwinding or winding into a spread trade, yet 875,000 more ounces of Silver were added for delivery and no price! So, was this added to the “73” that was waiting for their receipts or was it something in between? So far this morning, the Comex has no addition purchases or spread activities posted and we are forced to assume they are telling us the truth (cough).

       Silver’s Overall Open Interest dropped during yesterday’s punch lower with the count now at 233,960 Obligations still in the trade, showing a reduction of 2,250 since yesterday’s quote. Gold’s Open Interest, however, gained with the count total now at 794,728 Overnighters proving an addition of 29 Obligations were added during the (Feb) contract rollover. With all the unverifiable numbers within the Comex Delivery System, one would have to question all the other exchanges that sell precious metals along with this huge amount of paper (LBMA is one, but there are far more to add). Are they all doing the same thing and if so, what is the overall “real” vs. “paper” count? Maybe we’ll get there (as a way of measuring the entire manipulation) as time rolls on as the paper stays and as the physical precious metals go away.

      Here we are again, forced to watch a much small group of tax wasters, after 4 years of bullshit that no president should have to go thru, that still can’t get over the fact that the population voted for someone the Deep State doesn’t want. At the same time, nothing has happened to currencies or precious metals prices. We’ve no choice but to move forward, the great unwinding of paper will occur, as the prices are forced higher and higher. While we wait, it allows us the time to consider; is this group of Deep State despots directly linked to the Federal Reserve’s money creation system? And if so, will the next election help prove it all or will it bust out during this joke of a hearing?

     Let us wait it out, with physical precious metals in our possession, as the paper flays against the winds of trade. Keep the attitude positive, have a smile on your face no matter what, and as always…

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson

end

Bill Holter: “The Fed Has Already Lost Control”

After months of repo lines and injecting more credit into the system, it seems as if not only haven’t the problems been resolved. But that they appear to be getting worse. As the Fed has lost control, while the everything bubble is coming to an end.

Which Bill Holter of JS Mineset was kind enough to join me on the show and discuss. Where he talked about the fractional reserve gold and silver markets, how many paper claims there are on each physical ounce of metal, and how investors can be prepared for what’s about to come.

So to find out what one of the smartest and most well connected gold and silver analysts out there is seeing and doing, click to watch the interview now!

Chris Marcus
January 22, 2019′

end

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: GLD — a crash course

 Section: 

10:30a ET Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Explaining today the mechanics of the exchange-traded gold fund GLD, Voima Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes that the fund is full of counterparty risk, the avoidance of which is a primary reason for owning gold.

… 

Nieuwenhuijs approvingly quotes financial writer Simon Mikhailovich on the point: “Buying an insurance policy against failure of the insurance industry from an insurance company is nonsense. If the insured event occurred, the company that sold the policy would fail and the policy would be worthless.”

Nieuwenhuijs’ analysis is headlined “GLD — A crash course” and it’s posted at Voima Gold here:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/gld-a-crash-course

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

New book, ‘Rigged,’ credits GATA as it explains currency market manipulation

 Section: 

11:13a ET Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Our friend the veteran journalist, editor, and writer Stuart Englert has just published a book about the manipulation of the monetary metals markets — “Rigged: Exposing the Largest Financial Fraud in History” — in which he extensively credits GATA’s work.

The book is available for $14.99 (or $6.99 in Kindle format) from Amazon —

https://www.amazon.com/Rigged-Exposing-Largest-Financial-History/dp/1651…

— but for an additional $3 and a penny, you can get an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert@comcast.net.

Englert most generously will donate to GATA 10 percent of sales proceeds from the book.

The book is an excellent and concise summary of currency market rigging policy and would make a great gift for someone needing an introduction to the issue.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9024/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9045   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 8.61 POINTS OR 0.26%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 355.71 POINTS OR 1.27%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 166.79 POINTS OR 0.70%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.59/Euro FALLS TO 1.1180

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.96/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.04 and Brent: 64.21

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.26%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.38% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.64: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.38

3k Gold at $1555.45 silver at: 17.79   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.96

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.96 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9713 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0762 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.26%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.77% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.23%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9261..

Futures Hit Record High On Optimism That “Corona Is Contained”

Just yesterday we predicted that it is only a matter of time before we get a headline like “stocks surge on optimism China epidemic is contained”

zerohedge@zerohedge

You know it’s coming:
“Stocks surge on optimism China epidemic is contained”

And sure enough, less than 24 hours later, in an attempt to explain the return of overnight market euphoria Reuters writes that “world stock markets looked to be getting back to full strength on Wednesday, as updates from China about the spread of a new flu-like coronavirus raised hopes the outbreak would be contained” and Bloomberg doubled-down that “U.S. equity-index futures gained on Wednesday as China took steps to contain the spread of a deadly virus”, which is ironic since just moments ago China’s CCTV reported that there are now 473 confirmed Coronavirus cases in China, with many cases now observed internationally, and most recently, a Coronavirus case were confirmed in Hong Kong as the epidemic spreads. And yet, after dropping by 9 points yesterday, S&P futures have more than made up those losses and are up 14 points as of Wednesday morning.

 

China’s National Health Commission said on Wednesday there were 440 cases of the new virus, with nine deaths so far, and added that measures are now in place to minimize public gatherings in the most-affected regions. How one can prevent people from gathering in China, the world’s most congested nation, remains unclear. Meanwhile, the outbreak has spread from its origin in Wuhan, China, to the United States, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. The World Health Organization meets later on Wednesday to consider whether the outbreak is an international emergency.

In other words, despite what a handful of algos would like to telegraph, the Coronavirus is anything but contained, with the outbreak reviving memories of the SARS epidemic in 2002-03, a coronavirus outbreak that killed nearly 800 people. And the punchline: according to Reuters, “this time China’s response and candour — in contrast to the SARS epidemic — have helped reassure investors concerned about the possible global fallout.” Actually, the “response and candour” confirm, if anything, that China is panicking, but as usual the market is never wrong, until it is.

“The call here is not that the virus is done or nipped in the bud by any means,” said Kay Van-Petersen, global macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. “But there have been no big further reported outbreaks, and the response from the Chinese authorities has been very, very positive”.

“I would expect a lot of people – candidly, like we are – that are looking for opportunities to buy rather than sell” amid the dip in stocks caused by virus-contagion worries, Lamar Ville re, partner and portfolio manager at Villere & Co., said on Bloomberg TV. “I don’t think this is going to be the beginning of the end.”

Because one obviously “buys rather then sells” when stocks are trading at never before seen highs.

In any case, optimism that “Corona is Contained” helped European stocks in London, Frankfurt and Paris score early gains of 0.1% to 0.2%. European equities first erased initial gains to mirror whiplash price action for stocks in Asia, where early losses reversed after Beijing outlined measures to contain the outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus, however it has since rebounded again.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks resumed their climb, rebounding from the last session led by consumer-staples and technology companies. The benchmark stock gauge recovered about half of Tuesday’s losses, with most markets in the region gaining. Shares in Hong Kong also rebounded, with technology stocks and insurers boosting the Hang Seng Index. Chinese shares erased losses after Beijing said it will start a nationwide screening effort to tackle the outbreak.

MSCI’s airline industry index .posted its biggest daily drop in more than three months on Tuesday. Airline shares were still falling on Wednesday.

“While details on the coronavirus are scant, we reckon that the SARS period could offer some clues as to how markets could pan out,” analysts at Singapore’s DBS Bank said. “The trends are clear: Yields and stock prices fell in the first few months of the SARS outbreak and rebounded thereafter.”

And yes, the return of Fed-backstopped euphoria means a new record high in the US too where S&P 500 futures just hit a new all time high, reaching Michael Hartnett’s target of 3,333 more than one month ahead of schedule (March 3).

In rates, US 10Y Treasurys were unchanged with the yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds stabilizing after Tuesday’s drop, sitting at 1.78% US10YT=RR in European trading. Core European and U.K. bond yields are also little changed across most of the curves. Italian government bond yields rose as much as 8 basis points on reports the leader of the country’s 5-Star party and foreign minister, Luigi Di Maio, will step down, however they recovered all losses after it was confirmed that he is indeed stepping down. It was the biggest, if brief, sell-off in a month and raised the risk of another snap election in Europe’s fourth-largest economy, since 5-Star is part of Italy’s coalition government.

“The initial reaction was to sell because of the heightened political uncertainty,” said Luca Cazzulani, a strategist at UniCredit in Milan. “But there is no outright link between de Maio’s resignation and a collapse of the government.”

In FX, with markets generally rising, safe plays such as gold and the Japanese yen were weaker. The dollar was rising toward the highs it reached in December against the other top world currencies. The yen dipped after gaining Tuesday on news of the contagion and potential disruption to spending during China’s week-long Lunar New Year. The yuan steadied, after tumbling the most in almost five months Tuesday in onshore trading.

In commodities, gold gave back some gains to trade at $1,555 per ounce; West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $58 a barrel and natural gas gained 1% to $1.91 per mmbtu.

Expected data include mortgage applications and existing home sales. Abbott, J&J and Prologis are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,332.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.04% to 423.20
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 173.55
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 566.22
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 24,031.35
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,744.13
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 28,341.04
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,060.75
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 41,143.43
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 7,132.73
  • Kospi up 1.2% to 2,267.25
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to -0.245%
  • Euro up 0.08% to $1.1091
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 1.201%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 0.433%
  • Brent futures down 0.7% to $64.17/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,558.10
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.56

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Chinese officials stepped up monitoring of transportation links in China and ordered a nearly complete shutdown of the city of Wuhan where the virus originated, as the death toll increased to nine
  • President Trump tells CNBC in interview from Davos that “I want this dollar to be strong. I want it to be so powerful. I want it to be great. But if you lower the interest rates, so many good things would happen,” he says, according to transcript provided by the network
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said there are no deadlines to start talks on a phase-two agreement, during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland
  • The Federal Reserve averted a year-end liquidity crunch by pumping $256 billion into repurchase markets. The consequences are now rippling across the globe as Japanese bonds have become less attractive to U.S.-based investors, while yen-funded investors now find European bonds and U.S. credit more alluring
  • Xavier Rolet is stepping down as chief executive officer of billionaire Michael Hintze’s hedge fund firm, just a year after taking the role. Rolet is leaving for “reasons unconnected with CQS,” according to an emailed statement from the hedge fund.
  • Former UBS Group AG trader Kweku Adoboli fought to avoid deportation from the U.K. to the nation of his birth after his conviction for a $2.3 billion loss at the Swiss bank. Now, he is seeking a comeback in Ghana with a plan to kick-start its mortgage-backed bond market
  • Malaysia’s central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate Wednesday, the latest emerging market to ease monetary policy amid an uncertain global economy.

Asian equity markets gradually improved and shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where all major indices snapped their streak of record closes amid jitters related to the coronavirus with 440 cases reported in China and the death toll now at 9, while the CDC also confirmed the first case of the virus in the US. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+0.9%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) managed to rebound from opening weakness as outperformance in Consumer Staples, Tech and Healthcare underpinned the Australian benchmark to a fresh all-time high, while Tokyo sentiment was mainly driven by currency moves but with weakness seen in some automakers including Mitsubishi Motors after several of its locations were raided in Germany on suspicion of using emission cheating devices. KOSPI (+1.2%) gained with Hyundai Motor boosted amid earnings despite missing expectations on Q4 net as it still showed a turnaround from the loss Y/Y and both its operating profit and revenue topped forecasts. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.3%) nursed some of the prior day’s near-3% losses and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) eventually joined in on the recovery after it initially slipped to its lowest levels so far this year due to the ongoing outbreak fears and after experts suggested the possibility of a mutation in the coronavirus. Finally, 10yr JGBs were indecisive amid a pullback in T-notes which retraced some of the prior day’s advances after hitting resistance around 129.20 and with prices also failing to benefit despite slightly firmer demand at the enhanced-liquidity auction for longer dated JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • India’s Painful Double Whammy Grips More Emerging Markets
  • Malaysia Follows Turkey, South Africa With Interest Rate Cut
  • Tencent Offers 27% Premium to Take Over Game Maker Funcom

A choppy session for European stocks thus far [EuroStoxx 50 -0.2%], with a mixed performance across regional bourses and following on from a mostly positive APAC handover. Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.6%) lags its peers with the Italian Banking Index hitting 6-week lows – on the back of Di Maio’s resignation as the Italian 5SM leader. On the other end of the spectrum, SMI (+0.6%) outperforms with almost all of its stocks in positive territory. Sectors are mixed with no clear reflection of the overall market sentiment. In terms of individual movers, Airbus (+1.7%) shares are supported after a source noted that Boeing doesn’t expect regulators to sign off on the 737 Max until June or July, months later than the manufacturer previously expected. Traders also attribute the losses in Tui (-4.3%) to the Boeing news. Elsewhere, Daimler (-1.7%) reversed opening gains on the back of another profit warning in which it expects FY19 results to be below forecasts, with the return on sales of Mercedes-Benz vans also forecast below prior guidance. Meanwhile, ASML (-1.2%) shrugged off a mostly in-line earnings report and a EUR 6bln share buy-back programme, potentially on concerns that the Co. may not completed this programme given that the FY19 share buy-back was incomplete.

Top European News

  • Rolet to Step Down as CEO of Billionaire Hintze’s Hedge Fund CQS
  • U.K. Government Spending Soars as Austerity Continues to Thaw
  • ECB Hits Fifth Anniversary of QE Still Puzzled by Inflation Gap
  • Greece’s Lawmakers Elect Country’s First Woman Head of State

In FX, although safe-haven flows are unwinding amidst less acute concern about China’s coronavirus and knock-on effects, partly due to Chinese efforts to contain the spread and extent of contamination, the scale of Swiss Franc declines suggest that something else is afoot. Indeed, Usd/Chf has rebounded firmly above 0.9700 to around 0.9730 and Eur/Chf is hovering nearer a circa 1.0790 peak vs 1.0735 trough even though the single currency has retreated further from 1.1100+ highs vs the Dollar towards key technical support (100 DMA at 1.1070) and recent lows (1.1066 from December 20). Eur/Usd has been undermined to a degree by renewed Italian political instability awaiting an official 5-Star Movement announcement that is expected to confirm the resignation of leader Di Maio and leave one of the coalition Government parties without a head. No evidence to support the theory until next Monday’s weekly Swiss sight deposit statement, but perhaps the Franc has been sold in advance of anticipated FTQ positioning?

  • JPY/NZD/AUD/GBP/CAD – The Yen has also conceded some ground on renewed risk appetite premises, but holding close to 110.00 against the Greenback, while the Aussie and Kiwi remain depressed below 0.6600 and 0.6850 respectively as the clock ticks down to Thursday’s major Antipodean data points in the form of CPI and jobs. Elsewhere, Sterling is rangy in Cable and Eur/Gbp cross terms either side of 1.3050 and 0.8500 awaiting Friday’s preliminary UK PMIs that could well be the final jigsaw pieces for next week’s BoE policy meeting, and similarly the Loonie is biding time between 1.3050-1.3100 in the run up to Canadian CPI just before the BoC.
  • EM – The Rand continues its recovery from worst levels after in line SA CPI and last week’s surprise SARB ease prompted Usd/Zar upside to test the 200 DMA yesterday, but also as the Dollar stalls after another look at the same DXY chart resistance level around 97.720. However, the Rouble is fading after a fleeting relief rally on the formation of a new Russian Government alongside oil prices towards 62.0000 again.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures remain lacklustre in mid-week trade – with participants pointing dampened sentiment on the coronavirus outbreak alongside demand woes for the complex, amid lower demand from airlines in light of cancelled flights ahead of the Chinese Lunar Year. Bearish supply-side fundamentals also weigh on the futures as EIA expects US total shale oil production to rise by 22k BPD in February to 9.2mln, with a predominant increase by the Permian. WTI meanders around USD 58/bbl ahead of its 200 DMA at 57.57/bbl and the 100 DMA at 57.29, whilst the Brent contract fell below its 100 DMA (62.79/bbl) with eyes on its 200 DMA at 63.97/bbl as Mar’20 futures test yesterday’s low just above 64/bbl. As a reminder, the weekly API Private crude inventories will be released later today on account of Monday’s MLK US market holiday. Spot gold prices have clambered off overnight lows after a test of the 1550/oz to the downside and ahead of potential modest resistance at its 50 HMA (~1559/oz) which did cap gains in the yellow metal during yesterday’s session. Meanwhile, copper prices found an overnight base around 2.8/lb but ultimately remains flat intraday.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 30.2%
  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.1, prior 0.6
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.43m, prior 5.35m
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 1.5%, prior -1.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A look at my Davos stats from yesterday shows around 20,000 steps and 10 miles of trekking around town to various meetings and events. I think 3 miles of that was taking a forced detour as Mr Trump’s motorcade came through town. We hosted a fascinating panel on sustainability pitting NYT best selling author Andrew McAfee who’s written an optimistic tome (More From Less) against Tim Jackson – an ecological economist – who has written a more pessimistic book (Prosperity Without Growth). It made for a lively debate and in all my interactions its clear that the number of these conversations are rising exponentially. In talking about our Davos piece on this topic (link here) at a separate meeting, one client explained one of the dilemmas they face. They invest in African development and mentioned that surely everyone would want health improvements in the continent – especially the poorer parts. However his assertion was that the only way that can happen in the immediate future is if their energy consumption increases which in turn potentially damages the planet. Raising the awareness of such trade-offs is one of the main themes of our report and this is where more and more attention needs to be focused.

It’s fair to say that the two headline grabbers of Davos yesterday have different views on the issue. President Trump said that “we must reject the perennial prophets of doom and their predictions of the apocalypse”. It’s fair to say Greta Thunberg took the polar opposite view. Elsewhere in Mr Trump’s speech, he trumpeted the achievements of his administration, criticised the Federal Reserve once again for not cutting rates fast enough, and also said that talks with China on phase two would start “very shortly”. Later on, ahead of a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump said that “we’re going to talk about a big trade deal” and that it was “something that we all want to be able to make.” However, Trump also said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that he was “absolutely serious” when it comes to putting tariffs on European cars if a trade deal couldn’t be reached.

In terms of today at Davos, Von der Leyen will actually be one of the main speakers, with an address at 11:30 CET, while there’s a potentially interesting panel on the future of financial markets a bit earlier at 10:30 CET, which includes IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, along with the US and UK finance ministers, Steven Mnuchin and Sajid Javid.

Back to markets, and equities sold off yesterday as the US returned from a holiday, with investors becoming a bit more cautious around the world amidst the continued spread of a new coronavirus in China. Reports that a case had been discovered in the US helped reverse a gradual rally back in markets prior to the last couple of hours of US trading. More on the US session below but the latest on the virus is that with the death toll increasing to 9 from 6, China is likely to start nationwide screening as officials are stepping up the monitoring of transportation links in the country. The confirmed cases of the infection have reached 440 as of January 21 (from 218 on January 20) and 1,394 patients are under medical observation. Including the detection in the US, the virus has now stretched to 5 additional countries with Macau reporting its first case overnight. Elsewhere, the WHO is going to decide today as to whether to declare the virus an international public health emergency. China has said that as of now it has seen no evidence of “super spreaders” – infected people who pass on the disease rapidly to many other people – but could not rule out that some would emerge. Super spreaders played a key role in the SARS pandemic 17 years ago, which killed almost 800 people and hurt economies across the region.

Assessing the economic impact of the coronavirus, our Asian economists draw conclusions from the past outbreaks of SARS and MERS (link here) and conclude that the impact from any spread of the disease would be felt most in the form of a sharp decline in retail sales, tourism, hotel & catering and travel activities as people try to avoid infection by restricting travel and people to people contact. Also, if necessary, public health measures might get introduced to reduce infections by imposing quarantines and closing schools which could result in a higher impact. But most other services and trade and manufacturing activities are unlikely to be affected much, in their view; and consumption and travel can be expected to recover quickly, even before the authorities give the all clear as observed during the SARS and MERS outbreak. The big problem is that as the Lunar New Year holidays approach it might prove hard for China to contain. Some good news is that China have been forthcoming and transparent about the spread of this coronavirus as they involved the WHO very early on and have also shared the genetic sequencing of the virus to allow early detection of cases in other countries. This is unlike what happened with SARS which first came to light in China in November 2002 but only got widespread attention after the first cases were detected in Hong Kong in February 2003.

Overnight in Asia, markets are making advances as investors are moderating their concerns over the virus. The Nikkei (+0.59%), Hang Seng (+1.25%) and Kospi (+1.00%) are all up. Meanwhile, the CSI (+0.08%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.02%) are trading flattish. As for Fx, the Japanese yen is down -0.15% while most Asian currencies are making modest advances. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.47% and yields on 10y USTs are up +1.2bps while, gold is trading down -0.33% and oil prices are down -0.40%. As for overnight data releases, South Korea’s preliminary 4Q GDP printed at +2.2% yoy (vs. +1.9% yoy expected).

Before this the S&P 500 fell back from its record high from Friday, ending the session down -0.26%. It was a similar story elsewhere, with the NASDAQ (-0.19%) and the Dow Jones (-0.52%) also seeing declines. Boeing (-3.33%) saw another tough session. Before this in Europe, the STOXX 600 pulled back from its intraday low of -0.99% to close just -0.14% lower. Nevertheless the risk-off sentiment supported sovereign debt, with 10yr Treasuries down -5.7bps to 1.766%, while the 2s10s curve flattened by -2.5bps. Gilt yields fell -1.9bps to their lowest level since October, while bunds (-3.1bps) and OATs (-3.0bps) also saw yields move lower. Italy was the exception, where the spread of BTPs over bunds widened by +4.9bps ahead of lots of political news flow of late and a regional election on Sunday. That said, they’re still holding the 150-170bps range seen since mid-November so it’ll be interesting to see if political risk leads to a break out.

Looking at yesterday’s earnings, UBS shares fell -4.53% after the company reported that last year’s net profit attributable to shareholders was down -5% year-on-year, with the bank also lowering their targets moving forward. Bank stocks were subdued generally yesterday, with the STOXX Banks index closing down -0.47% at a one-month low, though UBS isn’t a member of that particular index.

Staying with earnings, Netflix reported overnight and said that it added 8.76mn subscribers in 4Q (+20% yoy). However, it forecasted slower subscriber growth in the current quarter at 7mn (vs. 7.82mn) expected. The stock was up +2.38% in afterhours trading. IBM also reported with a slight beat. The stock was up +3.83% after hours.

Over in FX, sterling was the strongest-performing G10 currency yesterday, as the UK employment numbers ended a run of pretty weak data from the country. The 3m/3m employment change rose to +208k (vs. +110k expected) in November, its highest rate since January, while the unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, in line with expectations. In response, investors lowered the odds of a rate cut from the BoE at next week’s meeting after the data release, with the chances falling to around 60%, having been at 70.5% at the close on Friday. Our economists point out (link here) though that most of yesterday’s announced employment gains have been government led so it shouldn’t change the view on a necessary rate cut too much. The last big data release before the BoE meeting will be the preliminary January PMIs on Friday, so the market will be paying close attention.

Meanwhile in Germany, the ZEW Survey beat expectations, with the current situation reading rising to -9.5 (vs. -13.5 expected), while the expectations reading rose to 26.7 (vs. 15.0 expected), the strongest reading for the expectations indicator since July 2015. So a note of optimism ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

In terms of the day ahead there are a number of key highlights. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on rates, while Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking at the Bloomberg Climate Forum in Davos. Earnings releases out today include Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Laboratories, ASML and Texas Instruments. Finally on the data, we’ll get French business confidence in January, Italian industrial sales and industrial orders from November, UK public sector net borrowing for December, Canada’s December CPI reading, and finally US existing home sales for December and the FHFA house price index for November.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.61 POINTS OR 0.26%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 355.71 POINTS OR 1.27%   /The Nikkei closed UP 166.79 POINTS OR 0.70%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .95%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9024 /Oil UP TO 58.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.21 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9024 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9045 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

skepticism is mounting on phase one of the trade deal..it is doomed from the start!

(zerohedge)

Phase One Trade Deal “Doomed From The Start” As Skepticism Mounts About Purchases

President Trump is at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, giving a speech to the world’s elites on how the Phase 1 trade agreement is the greatest deal ever.

Trump has touted non-stop on Twitter about how he made the biggest deal in the world, and China will be purchasing vast quantities of U.S. farm products in the coming months.

After all, it’s an election year, and Trump has to cheerlead, even as skepticism is growing over China’s capacity to buy U.S. products, reported South China Morning Post (SCMP).

China’s commitment to purchase an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods over the next several years “may be doomed from the start.”

Chad Bown, a trade specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), said, “a close look at the data shows that the numbers are even more unrealistic than first believed. Even worse, hostilities might renew, leading to a re-escalation of trade tensions currently on hold.”

Much of the skepticism of trade purchases by China is from their repeated statements on how import purchases from the deal will be based on market conditions. This was reiterated by Li Xingqian, head of the foreign trade department, on Tuesday, who said, “we will expand imports from the United States based on the principles of the market and World Trade Organization rules and will not affect imports from other countries.”

Much of the demand will be based on China’s economy, and with growth slumping to three-decade lows in 2019 – a surge in demand for U.S. products will be challenging for Chinese importers.

China’s State Grid, the largest utility company in the country, warned that economic growth could plunge to 4% within the next four years, according to internal forecasts.

Andrei Agapi, associate pricing director for agriculture at S&P Global Platts in Singapore, told the SCMP that if “China says it’s down to market conditions, then the U.S. will have to be competitive. And the reality is that the U.S. is not competitive by a long shot already, and it hasn’t been before either.”

Agapi said since China offered tariff waivers on U.S. soybeans imports last fall, the price has risen past Brazilian beans, which would entice the Chinese to ditch U.S. markets for ones in Latin America because of cost factors.

We’ve noted how China has been actively diversifying farm purchases away from the U.S. towards Brazil and Argentina.

Peter Meyer, head of grain and oilseed analytics at S&P Global Platts, said when we spoke with Chinese bean traders in the interior of the country, there’s pessimism developing that “there is no way they could even run that much in the country – it would throw the entire domestic supply chain into disarray.”

Traders told SCMP that if China had to bite the bullet and buy U.S. farm goods despite market conditions – then it would do so via state trading companies like COFCO.

Agapi said China has already purchased 50% of its soybean demand for the year from Latin America. Furthermore, he said demand this year will be lower because the African swine fever wiped out at least half of the country’s pig herd.

Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist for Asia-Pacific, said Tuesday that “it would obviously take political will and maybe some easing of import restrictions in a couple of areas”.

“The surprise for us in the official document was that the amount on the agriculture side is less and the energy side was more. That might be relevant because there were a couple of sectors where orders would count as purchases. There are often long-term energy contracts that are signed, but it’s less typical in the agricultural space to see that,” Tilton said.

Bown said 28% of U.S. exports to China are part of industries not covered by the new trade agreement, and this could mean these exports are slashed while sourced from other countries.

“Thus, in legal terms, China has little incentive to import those US$51.6 billion of uncovered products from the U.S. in 2020 or 2021,” he said.

Bown warned: “To compensate angry trading partners aggrieved because of the trade diversion, China could purchase more uncovered products from them and reduce imports from the United States. That would be painful for American companies and workers whose products Trump has chosen not to put into this agreement.”

More or less, the trade agreement will likely be broken after the election, and the trade war will resume.

zerohedge@zerohedge

China to Expand Imports From U.S. Based on Market Demand: Mofcom

So the entire trade deal is meaningless

END

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS

China is now already blaming the slowdown in 2020 to the Coronavirus epidemic

(zerohedge)

 

China Is Already Blaming A Slowdown In 2020 On The Coronavirus Epidemic

So much can change in just 24 hours.

It was just yesterday that China’s top twitter troll and Beijing propaganda voice to the west, Global Time Editor in Chief Hu Xijin was downplaying the risk from the coronavirus outbreak, comparing it to the SARS epidemic in 2003, and saying that “during SARS epidemic, even many medical staff contracted virus and died of it. It doesn’t look the same this time.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Chinese society is mobilizing to deal with the new coronavirus. But its risks of human-to-human transmission and fatality rate appear lower than SARS. During SARS epidemic, even many medical staff contracted virus and died of it. It doesn’t look the same this time. https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1219218357792075777 

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

Breaking: Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the effective control of the penumonia outbreak caused by the new coronavirus and stressed that people’s lives and health should come first.

View image on Twitter

Oops, because just a few hours later, we got confirmation that at least 15 medical staff had in fact contracted the virus which now appears to be spreading human-to-human, as six people have died among 291 confirmed cases in China, eliminating any attempts to further downplay the significance of the coronavirus epidemic which has reportedly infected hundreds of people across China.

So in a dramatic 180-degree reversal, the same twitter troll now had an entirely different message to the word: not only is “the epidemic expanding” and “concerns are mounting”, but more importantly, “It is inevitable that people will cut their trips during Spring Festival and holiday consumption will be hit.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Coronavirus cases have been found in other places out of Wuhan, Hubei Province, indicating the epidemic is expanding. Concerns are mounting. It is inevitable that people will cut their trips during Spring Festival and holiday consumption will be hit.

So what happened? It appears Beijing decided to not let a perfectly good crisis go to waste, and just as “trade war” was used as a 2019 scapegoat on which to blame the slowdown in the economy, an economy which is rapidly slowing down for vastly different reasons, it will now blame the coronavirus epidemic on the ongoing slowdown of the Chinese economy.

The reason reason for the slowdown? China’s ghastly debt load of over 300% of GDP…

… while in turn makes it impossible for the country to inject substantial new debt into the economy to kickstart a new, and much-needed reflationary episode.

And since every attempt at deleveraging in the past decade has proven catastrophic, expect many more Chinese “exogenous” events which will be blamed for the country’s continued GDP shrinkage from 7% to 6% and now to a 5-handle.

END

CHINA/THE GLOBE/THIS MORNING

Confirmed cases of the coronavirus now climbs to 481 and it has spread to several countries

(zerohedge)

Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Climb To 481 As Outbreak Spreads To Macau, Hong Kong

China’s National Health Commission has revised the total of coronavirus cases higher for at least the second time on Wednesday: there are now 473 confirmed patients infected in China alone, though the death toll remained at 9Reuters reports.

Internationally, the total number of cases has climbed to 481, according to a running count by the SCMP:

As the virus spreads throughout the mainland, health officials in Hong Kong have confirmed that the first case of coronavirus has been detected in the Special Autonomous Region. According to the SCMP, the male patient arrived in Hong Kong on a high-speed train on Tuesday from Wuhan, the Chinese city at the center of the outbreak. He was discovered to have a fever when he arrived at a rail station in West Kowloon, and has now tested positive or the virus three times, the first two at Queen Elizabeth hospital in Jordan.

 

Local television footage showed the still-unnamed patient being taken from Queen Elizabeth to Princess Margaret Hospital, where the Hospital Authority Infectious Disease Center is located. Several health care workers wearing full protective gear could be seen pushing the patient on a stretcher.

Hong Kong’s public rail company, MTR Corp, confirmed that it had been notified by the Department of Health that the patient took a high-speed rail train G5607 from the Shenzhen North station to West Kowloon Station. Officials are now taking steps to disinfect the train.

The virus has also reportedly made it to Macau, which also confirmed its first case on Wednesday, according to the SCMP. Alarmingly, considering that Macau is one of the most popular destinations for the hundreds of millions of vacationers from the mainland looking to travel for the Chinese New Year Holiday this week, Macau’s patient zero made it through health screenings for the virus, even though she had been showing symptoms including a cough and soar throat for about a week.

The virus has already spread to Chinese cities including Beijing and Shanghai, as well as to the US, Australia, South Korea, Thailand, Japan and beyond.

Earlier, we reported that China had launched a nation-wide screening effort to detect any remaining cases of the virus, suggesting that there could be many more cases yet to be uncovered. Screeners are looking for symptoms including fever, cough and difficulty breathing, all pneumonia-like symptoms. In addition to the autonomous regions, the virus has been confirmed in at least 13 Chinese provinces.

Beijing has also launched extensive operations to coat whole cities in disinfectant, as the video below shows:

Raccoon Brother@RaccoonBrother

Disinfection in the city of Shanghai due to the outbreak of a new

Embedded video

President Trump said earlier during an interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernen that the situation in the US is “totally under control” after the first case was identified in Washington state, the CDC announced yesterday.

Asked about criticisms that China wasn’t completely transparent about the virus, and initially tried to conceal the fact that it could spread from human to human, Trump said he had a good relationship with President Xi and expected that he could trust the Chinese government.

CNBC

@CNBC

“We have it totally under control,” President Trump says after the CDC confirmed the first U.S. case of the coronavirus that has sickened hundreds of people in China. https://cnb.cx/2TG1NOl

Embedded video

Chinese officials have warned that the virus has been evolving and mutating as it has traveled. The map below is the NYT‘s most up-to-date accounting of confirmed cases, though at this point it’s already woefully out-of-date.

 

The WHO is meeting on Wednesday to decide whether the outbreak warrants the most serious categorization for global pandemics.

Meanwhile, some experts are warning that on Wednesday the virus has taken a “step closer to full-blown epidemic.”

Media reports have been warning people in China and around the world about steps they can take to avoid being infected. Basic steps include frequently washing hands, avoid touching ones eyes, mouth or nose with unwashed hands, clean and disinfect objects, and covering one’s mouth and nose during a sneeze, per CNN.

end

 

CHINA/ CORONAVIRUS//THIS AFTERNOON

Outbreak: Pictures From The Wuhan Viral Crisis

Now that the coronavirus death toll has tripled in a day, global health officials are beginning to acknowledge the real risks, and this morning’s relief rally in stocks has mostly faded (with the Dow turning slightly red on the day).

But as morbid curiosity over the mysterious virus intensifies, and the number of declared cases and deaths surge, experts are warning that the pathogen has started to evolve and change.

To try and assuage a nervous population, Chinese health officials have said that all of those who have died from the virus had other co-occurring health issues, and that the mortality rate so far is much lower than the SARs outbreak from 2003, which killed between 30% and 50% of those infected (more than 800 eventually succumbed).

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

This will be troublesome for the EU as the 5 star leader, De Maio quits and that will set up Salvini to lead Italy out of the EMU

(zerohedge)

Italian Bonds, Stocks Slide As Five Star Leader Steps Aside

With his once-vanquished partner-turned-rival Matteo Salvini breathing down his neck, Luigi Di Maio, the longtime leader of Italy’s anti-establishment, left-of-center Five Star Movement, has stepped down from his position at the head of the party, though he will continue to serve as Italy’s foreign minister in a coalition government with the centrist Democrats.

Di Maio

News of Di Maio’s departure is a harbinger of more political turbulence in a country where the ruling coalition is held together by an extremely fragile alliance, and as a result Italian assets – including stocks and government bonds – sold off initially but have since managed to recover losses.

 

An index of Italian banking stocks slumped nearly 2% to its lowest level in six weeks. Italy’s still-struggling financial sector is particularly sensitive to signs of political instability.

Over the past year, Five Star’s popularity has been shrinking as its chief rival, Salvini’s right-wing League, snatched the crown of most popular party in the country away from M5S.

Roman Trader@patdoddson

Di Maio finally admits he is responsible for the “sinking” of his party. Known now as Sinco Di Maio. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1219942117134544897 

zerohedge@zerohedge

Italy’s Di Maio Quits as Leader of Five Star Movement: Sole

Di Maio said he will deliver a press conference later this afternoon (at 5 pm in Rome, or 11 am in New York).

Citing reports in Italian newspapers, the FT reports that Di Maio is expected to quit following a wave of defections of MPs who are apparently frustrated with his leadership. Support for the party has declined over the past year, and a resurgent League looks poised to win a critical election this weekend in the region of Emilia-Romagna, the birthplace of Italian socialism.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

LIBYA/TURKEY/SYRIA

It seems that the Syrian mercenaries paid by Turkey are flying to Italy.  They really had no intention on fighting in Libya but were looking for a cheap way to get to Italy

 

(COURTESY AlMasdarNews)

Syrian Fighters Abandon Libyan War, Flee Towards Italy: Report

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

Some Syrian fighters that went to fight in Libya have since abandoned the war and fled to Italy, opposition media sites claimed, as cited by Al-Watan.

According to the reports, at least 17 of the Syrian fighters have already arrived in Italy after spending a short period of time inside Libya.

 

Image via AMN

The reports said that the Syrian fighters intentionally accepted the deployment to Libya in order to later escape into Italy.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), some 2,400 Syrian fighters have already traveled to Libya thus far.

Another 1,200 fighters from a number of factions in the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are expected to make their way to Libya in the coming weeks. Middle East-based reporter for The Investigative Journal Lindsey Snell was told by a Libyan National Army (LNA) source:

“The mercenaries don’t believe that they will be returning to Turkey or Syria, so trying to get to Europe is the most logical option for them,” the source said.

Mohamed Fahmy

@MFFahmy11

Our Exclusive; 3,000 Syrian mercenaries flew to Libya from Turkey. Cost of the trip from az-Zawiyah, Libya to Italy rose from $700 to $1300 “The mercenaries don’t believe that they will be returning to Turkey or Syria, 147 mercenaries paid down payments go to Europe” https://twitter.com/TIJournalism/status/1219366228424261632 

The Investigative Journal

@TIJournalism

Exclusive: LNA source tells @lindseysnell that today, an ISIS member was captured among a group of Turkish-backed Syrian militants attempting to flee Libya for Europe. “He told us until three months ago, he had been held in an SDF prison in NE Syria.”https://investigativejournal.org/lna-source-isis-member-who-escaped-sdf-prison-in-syria-captured-in-libya-en-route-to-europe/ 

“And now, according to the LNA source, it appears that one escaped ISIS member managed to join a Turkish-backed militant faction bound for Libya and attempt to make his way to Europe,” The Investigative Journal reported further.

Last month, Bloomberg News released a story about Turkey offering contracts to Syrian fighters in order to help the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA).

Since then, several fighters have been seen inside of Libya, most notably near the capital city of Tripoli.

END

Libya

Tripoli’s only commercial target has been targeted by 6 missiles no doubt fired by the LNA under Hafter

(zerohedge)

 

Tripoli’s Only Commercial Airport Targeted By 6 Missiles After Berlin ‘Ceasefire’ Fails

So much for any “progress” or talk of ceasefire touted days ago at the Berlin conference, when world leaders gathered to try and broker Libya peace. Wednesday’s Libya headlines featured rocket attacks on Tripoli’s only functioning international airport, forcing a temporary shutdown of the entire commercial hub.

Authorities at Tripoli’s Mitiga have said it’s since reopened after being closed for an hour due to six military-grade Grad rockets being fired at the airport. A spokesman for the Government of National Accord (GNA) called the attack a “flagrant threat” air traffic safety and a “new violation” of the ceasefire.

 

Tripoli’s Mitiga Airport, via AFP.

The GNA statement further blamed the “war criminal Haftar” for the attack, amid his Libyan National Army (LNA) continuing the months long offensive on the capital, part of a broader two-years long campaign to take the entire country and its oil.

It has only been nine days since Mitiga airport’s reopening following a truce with the LNA, which clearly didn’t hold. In years past, Tripoli International Airport was the major international hub, but had in the years since the 2011 NATO war witnessed intense fighting in its vicinity, causing immense damage. Other than Mitiga, Tripoli residents are often forced to use Misrata Airport, about 125 miles away.

Turkey has also weighed in on the newest attack and apparent failure the potentially internationally-brokered ceasefire, which also had Russian and Turkish involvement.  “Warlord Haftar, who posed a clear threat against the air traffic in the airport with this assault, has persistently disregarded the ceasefire call of the world,” a top Turkish security official was quoted in Middle East Eye as saying.

For its part, Haftar’s LNA has alleged Tripoli’s main aviation hub has become a legitimate military target given it’s hosted Turkish aircraft, including according to pro-Haftar forces drone activity.

Julian Röpcke

@JulianRoepcke


Haftar forces downed another Turkish Army-supplied “Bayraktar TB2” drone in after it took off from airport, which seems to be under fire too.
So far for the “ceasefire” in .

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Turkish-supplied drones have actually been operating over Tripoli for months, which a handful shot down over the past half-year. There are also reports that Turkey has assisted in setting up anti-air defensive measures in and around Mitiga airport.

Haftar last Saturday took the drastic step of blocking all Libyan oil exports, slashing production by at least 50%, in protest of Turkey’s military intervention on behalf of Tripoli.

IRAN
Yesterday a brazen attack on a key IRGC commander.  This guy was responsible for mowing down protesters who complained in November on the removal of fuel subsidies
(zerohedge)

IRGC Commander & “Soleimani Ally” Shot Dead By Masked Assassins On Motorcycle

An elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander has been shot dead by masked assailants in front of his house in southwestern Iran. Crucially, he was a mid-range to possibly top commander of the IRGC’s hardline domestic wing, the Basij militia, and a close ally of recently assassinated Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani, reports state news IRNA on Wednesday.

The details clearly suggest that it was an assassination — at this point by an unknown entity or group — given two men riding a motorcycle drove by and essentially executed him in the street.

Reuters has described the slain Basij militia commander, Abdolhossein Mojaddami, as “an ally of Qassem Soleimani” — who was himself assassinated by US drone strike on January 3rd.

 

US media wing Radio Farda describes: Abdol-Hossein Majdami Head of Basij militia in Darkhoein rural district of Shadegan killed Jan. 22nd 2020.

“IRNA said that Abdolhossein Mojaddami, a Basij commander in the city of Darkhovin in the southwestern province of Khuzestan, was shot on Tuesday in front of his home by two men riding a motorcycle,” Reuters reports based on official Iranian state media quotes. “There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, IRNA said.”

The Associated Press added a few further limited details as follows:

Two gunmen on a motorcycle, armed with an assault rifle and a hunting rifle, ambushed Mojaddami, IRNA reported. Other Iranian media said the gunmen’s faces were covered with masks and that four shots were fired.

During sporadic protests going back to November, when unrest was fiercest inside Iran following a dramatic government gas subsidy cut — which saw economic protests give way to broader anti-regime mass gatherings — hundreds were reported gunned down by Basij militia working in tandem with police.

Tehran authorities defended security services’ use of deadly force, claiming “rioters” were attacking banks, oil facilities, and government buildings.

Interestingly, the Khuzestan region witnessed severe unrest as protesters clashed with police in November, and has since seen sporadic anti-government activity. It’s also considered one of the key oil-producing regions of the country.

Of course, this latest killing also brings up the possibility of a foreign or external intelligence agency operation, though it remains speculation. One likely candidate alleged to enjoy US and Israeli covert backing is Mujahideen e Khalq (MEK), considered by Iran and many other countries as an active terrorist organization. Groups in Iran linked to the MEK have been previously known to be involved in political assassinations.

Essentially a paramilitary cult devoted to overthrowing the Iranian government, the MEK is under the tight control and leadership of the charismatic opposition leader Maryam Rajavi, and is suspected of previously conducting brazen targeted killings of high level Iranian figures, especially nuclear scientists and engineers for years, likely at the bidding of foreign intelligence services. Until a few years ago the MEK was a designated terror group by the US State Department, though delisted under the Obama administration.

END

LEBANON

Lebanon forms a new government backed 100% by Hezbollah and they are backed by Iran.  Lebanon, once the crown jewel of the Middle East is within a whisker of declaring bankruptcy as they have no foreign reserves and debts are piled high.  The current amount of Lebanon Pound per dollar is 2500 lb per$.  Goods are disappearing fast

(zerohedge)

Lebanon’s New Hezbollah-Backed Government Meets After 3-Month Vacuum Amid Crisis

After in October Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri resigned amid worsening violence and protests related to the nation’s banking crisis, but remained in a caretaker capacity, Lebanon announced Tuesday the formation of a new government, which met for the first time Wednesday. The crisis-hit country has been three months without a government.

President Michel Aoun said it’s vital the new government led by caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab wins back international confidence at a moment Lebanon is on the verge of deft default and currency devaluation. The new leaders will attempt to instill enough faith to unlock crucial external funding, conditioned on badly needed reforms which have thus far remained elusive.

 

Newly-assigned Lebanese Prime Minister, Hassan Diab, via the AP.

“Your mission is delicate,” Aoun told the cabinet in a statement. “It is necessary to work to tackle the economic situation, restore the confidence of the international community in Lebanese institutions and reassure the Lebanese about their future,” Aoun said.

 

Caretaker PM Diab, formerly the education minister and importantly the candidate put forward by Hezbollah, has unveiled a plan for a new election law meant to promote national unity and placate key demands of protesters after demonstrations have raged for months, at times bringing daily life in the major cities, especially Beirut, to a standstill. This also as a liquidity crisis has resulted in strict capital controls imposed on banks, which has also lately seen account holders limited to withdrawing a mere $200 a week.

It’s now been over two months since commercial banks have enacted severe controls preventing large money transfers abroad and restricting clients’ access to their deposits. Throughout the nationwide protests, which at their height saw one million people hit the streets (a whopping some 20% of the entire population), both national and commercial banks have been routinely targeted for destruction and vandalism.

The new government includes Minister of Defense Zeina ‘Akkar, Minister of Foreign Affairs Nassif Hatti, Minister of Finance Ghazi Wazneh and Minister of Interior Mohammad Fahmi.

 

Lebanon’s new government met for the first time Wednesday, via NBC News.

Lebanon’s precarious financial situation has many investors pricing in a sovereign default. A $1.2 billion Eurobond that matures in March saw a record slump last week, fueled by reports local lenders have been selling the instruments to avoid participating in a central bank-initiated voluntary debt swap.

The Lebanese pound has plunged on the black market to some 2,500 against the U.S. dollar since the protests began on Oct. 17, while the central bank has stuck to the official rate of 1,507. Hours before the government was announced, Lebanon’s money changers announced that they would sell dollars at no more than 2,000 starting Thursday in an effort to ease the burden of price gains on consumers. — Bloomberg

PM Diab acknowledged the tumultuous events gripping the small Middle East nation in initial remarks Wednesday: “I salute the uprising that pushed us towards this path. Lebanon won an this government expresses the aspirations of the protesters over the area and country. We will work to fulfill your demands,” he said.

“The scenes that we saw during the past few days were painful and what is important now is to maintain stability and support the Lebanese Army and security forces,” Diab continued. “We have the capabilities to continue. We have our wealth. We will protect it and defend our right to it by all means,” he added.

Diab indicated just after taking the helm that he intends as his first trip abroad a visit to Gulf states which previously provided vital financial aid.

However, the prospect for Gulf aid could be sensitivegiven the new government is for the first time controlled exclusively by Hezbollah (which notably has the backing of Iran), while Lebanese political parties that typically enjoy Western backing have stayed on the sidelines. All of this also means protests are set to continue, and possibly grow more fierce, as promised by a number of activists.

6.Global Issues

CANADA

Now the next country to experience declining growth is Canada.  The Loonie tumbles after that Bank of Canada removes “appropriate rate” language signaling a pssible cut in interest rates

(zerohedge)

Loonie Tumbles After Unexpectedly Dovish BOC Removes “Appropriate Rate” Language

And another central bank is getting ready to cut rates even as the world is supposedly “rebounding” from the 2019 growth scare.

Moments ago, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 1.75%, in line with expectations, and highlighting the stabilization in the economy and trade but emphasizing the high degree of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

However, in a surprisingly dovish turn, the BOC revised its forward guidance, removing the “appropriate” rate language from final paragraph when referring to how Governing Council views maintaining the current level of overnight rate. The language as it now stands is “in determining the future path for the Bank’s policy interest rate, Governing Council will be watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is more persistent than forecast. In assessing incoming data, the Bank will be paying particular attention to developments in consumer spending, the housing market, and business investment.” Here, the BOC dropped the line “Based on developments since October, Governing Council judges it appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target.”

The central bank also focused on Q4 weakness, noting that “job creation has slowed and indicators of consumer confidence and spending have been unexpectedly soft.”

Amid the dovish reversal, the bank also said growth will be weaker and the output gap wider in the near term than was predicted in October, and as a result its revised its growth estimate lower, now expecting Q4 2019 GDP growth to 0.3%, from 1.3% previously.

In listing the factors behind this slowdown, the BOC said that “the effects of global trade conflicts and elevated uncertainty may have spread beyond investment and exports, contributing to the slowdown in the labour market and weighing on confidence. This may have contributed to more cautious behaviour by households.” The central bank also pointed to “special factors” weighing on growth including strikes, adverse weather, production shutdowns and inventory adjustments.

And in a direct hint that Canada may soon experience its own negative rates, the BOC said that “Canadians have been saving a larger share of their incomes, which could signal increased consumer caution.” Well, we all know how central banks approach the problem of too much savings, and it rhymes with -IRP.

In kneejerk response to this surprisingly dovish statement, the loonie tumbled 100 pips, with the USDCAD kneejerking from 1.3040 to 1.3140.

end

BRAZIL/GLOBE

Glenn Greenwald founder of the very popular Intercept and an excellent journalist has been arrested by the crooked Government of Brazil. Many react in disgust as to the wrongful charges levied against him

(zerohedge)

 

Glenn Greenwald Responds To ‘Grave And Obvious Attack On Free Press’ Following Charges

Glenn Greenwald responded to charges levied against him Tuesday by prosecutors in Brazil, who have accused the American journalist of cybercrimes for his role in publishing embarrassing text messages that exposed corruption within the Brazilian judicial system.

According to the government’s criminal complaint, Greenwald “directly assisted, encouraged and guided” his sources, who gained access to online chats between prosecutors and others involved in “Operation Car Wash,” which The Intercept describes as a ‘yearslong, sprawling anti-corruption investigation that roiled Brazilian politics.”

Greenwald has denied the charges, citing a Brazilian Federal Police investigation that concluded he committed no crimes – and in fact highlighted his “careful and distant posture regarding the execution” of the alleged hacks.

 

“Less than two months ago, the Federal Police, examining all the same evidence cited by the Public Ministry, stated explicitly that not only have I never committed any crime but that I exercised extreme caution as a journalist never even to get close to any participation,” said Greenwald, adding “Even the Federal Police under Minister Moro’s command said what is clear to any rational person: I did nothing more than do my job as a journalist — ethically and within the law.

Glenn Greenwald

@ggreenwald

Regarding the criminal charges brought by the Bolsonaro government: it’s a grave and obvious attack on a free press, brought by a far-right judge.

We’re going to defend a free press, not be intimidated by authorities abusing their power. The reporting will continue.

Embedded video

Operation Car Wash

The political scandal at the heart of Greenwald’s corruption charge is Operation Car Wash – which led to the prosecution of major Brazilian construction firms and politicians.

Among its most controversial convictions was that of former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose imprisonment on corruption charges removed him from contention in the 2018 presidential elections, despite leading in the polls. Instead, Bolsonaro won the office and quickly appointed Moro, the judge who convicted Lula, as his justice minister. After the Secret Brazil Archive reporting, the Brazilian Supreme Court released Lula on the basis of a procedural argument, a stinging rebuke of Moro’s work. –The Intercept

The Intercept‘s reporting relied on a trove of leaked materials which revealed scheming by prosecutors to ensure that Bolsonaro’s opposition (the Lula Workers’ Party) did not win the election. Prosecutors were also profiting from the scandal.

The Brazilian federal prosecutor who filed the criminal complaint, Wellington Divino Marques de Oliveira, who works in Moro’s Justice Ministry but has prosecutorial independence, wrote in the complaint that Greenwald had “directly assisted, encouraged and guided the criminal group, DURING the criminal practice, acting as guarantor of the group, obtaining financial advantage with the conduct described here.”

Bolsonaro has himself previously suggested that he would like to deport Greenwald and threatened to imprison the journalist for his work. At the time, The Intercept condemned the threat in a statement and reiterated that Greenwald and The Intercept’s other reporters enjoy free-press protections under the Brazilian constitution. –The Intercept

Greenwald’s charges have drawn rebuke from across the spectrum.

Bernie Sanders

@SenSanders

The free press is never more important than when it exposes wrongdoing by the powerful.

That is why President Bolsonaro is threatening Glenn Greenwald for the “crime” of doing journalism.

I call on Brazil to end its authoritarian attack on press freedom and the rule of law. https://twitter.com/theintercept/status/1219776537651810304 

The Intercept

@theintercept

“We are appalled that Brazil’s Public Ministry has decided to file such a blatantly politically motivated charge against Greenwald, in apparent retaliation for The Intercept’s critical reporting.” https://interc.pt/38ui25g

Susan Hennessey

@Susan_Hennessey

Glenn Greenwald has called me a “deceitful” mouthpiece of the national security state and I assure you I’ve rarely had a nice thing to say about him. But this is an outrageous assault on press freedom that should alarm every American. https://nyti.ms/2sKBoDX

Glenn Greenwald at his home in Rio de Janeiro.

Glenn Greenwald Charged With Cybercrimes in Brazil

Mr. Greenwald is accused of being part of a “criminal organization” that hacked into the cellphones of prosecutors and public officials.

Radley Balko

@radleybalko

Grossed out by all the “resistance” accounts cheering the Greenwald charges. If you’re reveling in the persecution of a journalist for exposing abuse and corruption, you’re aligning yourself with fascism. It doesn’t matter how many anti-Trump hashtags you put in your Twitter bio.

Jake Tapper

@jaketapper

Important context for arrest of ⁦@ggreenwald⁩ — Brazilian President Bolsonaro has been threatening Greenwald for a long time because of his aggressive and excellent journalism https://cpj.org/2019/07/brazilian-president-bolsonaro-says-glenn-greenwald.php 

Brazilian President Bolsonaro says Glenn Greenwald may ‘do jail time’

Miami, July 29, 2019 — The Committee to Protect Journalists today condemned Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s remarks that Glenn Greenwald, the co-founder and editor of The Intercept Brasil,…

cpj.org

 

Luke Savage

@LukewSavage

I get the impulse, but it bugs me to see so many people expressing their solidarity with Glenn Greenwald while qualifying it with stuff like “regardless of your views on him…”. Glenn is an invaluable voice and an extremely courageous person – that’s all that needs to be said.

Luke Savage

@LukewSavage

I’m sympathetic to the idea that solidarity can be extended to people you may disagree with or even dislike. But I think it really trivializes what Glenn and his family are up against in Brazil to qualify or hedge on your well-wishes, especially at a time like this.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1180 DOWN .0005 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.97 UP 0.045 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.31150   UP   0.0071  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3058 DOWN .0015 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 5 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1180 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 355.71 POINTS OR 1.27%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,95%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 255.71 POINTS OR 1.27%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.61 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 95% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 166.79  POINTS OR 0.70%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1556.00

silver:$17.78-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.77% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.23 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.59 UP 6 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.45% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,35 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 94 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.26% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.61% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1085  DOWN     .0005 or 5 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.92 UP .012 OR YEN DOWN 1  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3133 UP .0057 POUND UP 88  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 62 basis points to 1.3136

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9034    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9113  (YUAN DOWN)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9188 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.77 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.22 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.56 UP 3  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 38.78  0.51%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 40.12 POINTS OR .30%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 35.01 POINTS 0.58%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 37.60 POINTS or 0.39%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 138.99 POINTS OR 0.58%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.96 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.20 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    61.99  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.13 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 13 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.26 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.70//

 

 

BRENT :  63.10

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.77..down 1 basis pt…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.22.down 2 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1091 ( UP 6   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.86 DOWN .048 (YEN UP 5 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.54 UP 1 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:13136 UP 90  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9202

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.86   UP 0.01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 1 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3137 UP 64 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9034  (ONSHORE)/

.

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9090 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.26%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 9.22 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 12.96 POINTS OR 0.14%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.96 CLOSED DOWN .14

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.806%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Give Up Early Gains As “Contained” Coronavirus Death-Count Doubles Overnight

“It’s contained” was apparently the narrative-du-jour…

…never mind the actual facts on the ground as cases soar, deaths spike, and China declares martial law in all but name…Stocks were steady so all is well…

Chinese stocks rose because “contained”…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets opened higher because “contained” but faded as the day wore on…

Source: Bloomberg

US markets were buoyant on hopes of “contained” but as reality hit during the day, and the WHO press conference, stocks faded…

 

Futures show the price action a little clearer – from the moment it was announced that the virus had reached US…

Bloomberg reports that demand for U.S. technology stocks has become so relentless that it’s time for “pulling in the horns,” according to Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity LLC’s chief market strategist. “A temporary correction” is to be expected, Dwyer wrote.

Source: Bloomberg

Tesla soared to a new record high – topping $100bn market cap and VW for the first time as the world’s largest carmaker…

Source: Bloomberg

Beyond Meat puked…

Source: Bloomberg

Boeing was all over the place despite CEO confidence…

Source: Bloomberg

The flu-shot makers tumbled back to earth today because “contained”…

Source: Bloomberg

Second day in a row, defensive stocks dominated cyclicals…

Source: Bloomberg

HY credit protection is notably decoupling from equity protection costs…

Source: Bloomberg

And HYG (US HY Bond ETF) is flashing a warning message)…

Source: Bloomberg

The decoupling between bonds and stocks has become ridonculous…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled further today

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yield closed at its lowest since Dec 3rd…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y Yields closed at 3mo lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar trod water once again, ending very modestly lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite stocks arguing that the virus is “contained”, Yuan tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Cable rallied on the Brexit vote today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin remained ‘steady’ around $8600-8700…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper and Crude sank notably today (not “contained”) with PMs flat to slightly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI traded down to a $56 handle ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Platinum and Paladium bounced back today from their significant drops yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that ‘hard’ data is not buying what ‘soft’ survey data is selling…hope remains!

Source: Bloomberg

Specs are record levered long…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks Give Up “Virus Is Contained” Gains

So much for the belief that this is all “contained.”

The farcical thinking in last night’s futures trading has been erased as it is clear the Novel Coronavirus is anything but “contained.”

 

With Trannies hit hard (Boeing not helping) and the rest of the cash markets giving up gains…

 

And with bond yields plumbing the post-Soleimani missile strike spike lows, stocks have a lot of explaining to do here…

 

Source: Bloomberg

As Goldman warns, the situation could worsen in the near term, given lags between initial infection to the reporting of cases, and the intensity of travel in the coming week within and around China. In particular, 2020Q1 consumption growth in the region faces downward pressure if trips are canceled and travel is curtailed.

While the severity of the economic impact is unknown, it is likely to be short-lived should it follow the pattern of historical cases. In the SARS case and other recent outbreaks (e.g. H1N1, H7N9), the trough in activity typically occurred 1-3 months following the outbreak.

Increased public awareness, advancements in health technology, and better practices among both health professionals and government agencies may be mitigating factors relative to prior outbreaks such as the 2003 SARS episode; however, transportation links and travel intensity within China have increased significantly over this period which potentially could broaden transmission.

And in case you still believe this is ‘contained’, Wuhan Hospital has set up a temporary tent to cope with a large number of patients That May Appear]…

自由亚洲电台

@RFA_Chinese

【武汉医院搭起临时帐篷】
【应付可能出现的大量病人】

1月22日,武汉多家医院已全面戒备,搭起临时帐篷,隔离可能出现的大批病人。当地人形容跟生化危机一样。

Embedded video

Locals describe it as the biochemical crisis.

end

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Illinois

Their pension fiances are a mess

Shuster/Illinoispolicy.org

Illinois Pensions 101: Paltry Contributions Yield Million-Dollar Payouts

Authored by Adam Schuster via IllinoisPolicy.org,

Across all five state retirement systems, typical career workers pay for about 5% of the cost of their pension benefits. They receive an average of $1.7 million to $3.6 million.

Illinois’ pension crisis is the worst in U.S. history – which raises the question, “Why?”

 

First, because public employees pay very little toward their own retirement and assume none of the economic risk for investments. Second, because workers retire relatively young so they are drawing from the systems longer. And third, because they receive pension benefits often in excess of $2 million during the course of their long, generous retirements.

Ultimately, this poorly designed system is bad for the retirees. They face a serious risk that the pension systems will go insolvent.

The state has five retirement systems it manages directly and is responsible for contributing to:

  • The Teachers’ Retirement System, or TRS, for pre-K through 12th-grade school employees outside of Chicago
  • The State Universities Retirement System, or SURS, for higher education employees
  • The State Employees’ Retirement System, or SERS, for employees of state agencies and boards
  • The Judges’ Retirement System, or JRS, for judges
  • And the General Assembly Retirement System, or GARS, which manages pensions for state lawmakers and statewide elected officials

Depending on the system, between 43% and 94% of retirees are set to receive benefits of at least $1 million during retirement. Between 18% and 83% will receive lifetime benefits in excess of $2 million. The largest lifetime pensions can be worth more than $10 million.

More than 50% of state workers and teachers will retire before age 60. Taking advantage of early retirement benefits, large portions of these employees will retire prior to age 55.

These returns on retirement investments combined with early retirement is unheard of in the private sector.

The average Social Security benefit for 2019 is $17,532 per year. The maximum Social Security benefit is $34,332 per year. The earliest anyone can qualify for Social Security is age 62 and the full retirement age for anyone born after 1960 is 67. According to CNBC, the average 401(k) balance for those close to retirement, people aged 60 to 69, is just $195,500. However, with prudent savings and an early start, personal retirement accounts can be a secure way to fund retirement. Fidelity Investments reported in 2018 that the number of 401(k) and IRA millionaires was at an all-time high – up 41% from just one year earlier.

No matter how you look at it, private sector taxpayers can rarely hope for the generous benefits they subsidize for public employees. The typical private sector worker would need to have saved $1.6 million in a personal retirement account by age 60 to receive the same $82,000  base pension as the average career teacher, or those with at least 30 years of experience. And 3% compounding post-retirement increases are not an option for private sector retirees.

Illinois law requires public employees to set aside very little on their own during a typical working career. This is especially true for “career employees” with at least 30 years of service credit but applies to shorter-term public workers as well.

While benefit payments are lower for employees in TRS, SURS, SERS and JRS who do not work at least 30 years, the benefits are still substantial. Illinois taxpayers subsidize the majority of the cost and assume all the risk without the ability to modify even future promises.

For career workers who serve 30 years or more, lifetime employee pension contributions account for between 4% and 6% of expected payouts, other than for members of the General Assembly Retirement System. These contributions legally guarantee employees a pension that is typically worth more than $2 million. State employees in SERS are the exception, but they are generally eligible for Social Security benefits and still average a generous $1.7 million. As of the most recent report from the state, 96.3% of state workers are also eligible for Social Security, which explains the somewhat lower benefit.

The state implemented a less generous benefit schedule for employees hired after Dec. 31, 2010, but the first so-called “Tier 2” employee will not be eligible for retirement until January 2021 because they must be at least 67 years old with 10 years of service to qualify for a pension.

Illinois pension debt exists almost entirely because of benefits for Tier 1 workers and retirees, those who began working for an eligible government employer prior to 2011. In fact, younger workers in Tier 2 may actually be subsidizing Tier 1 benefits by paying in more than they’ll receive, at least for teachers. As a result, teacher advocacy groups have predicted that if the state does not fix Tier 2 benefits, a lawsuit against the state is likely which could force higher benefits and increase the state’s pension debt even further.

Lawmakers did recently enhance benefits for Tier 2 downstate public safety workers. But they did so without knowing the cost or determining that it was actually necessary.

Still, the state’s $137 billion to $234 billion in public pension debt is really about Tier 1 benefits.

All Tier 1 retirees in the five state systems receive a 3% compounding annual increase regardless of actual inflation. While often mistakenly referred to as a “cost of living adjustment,” these are more accurately described as guaranteed post-retirement raises because they are not pegged to inflation.

It is important to note that Illinoisans should not blame retirees for the way politicians designed the state’s pension systems. In reality, their retirement security faces the same risk as the rest of the state: insolvency.

Weren’t Illinois pensions underfunded?

One common call among government worker unions and associated advocacy groups is that Illinois pensions were not overpromised, but underfunded.

While it’s true Illinois politicians played reckless funding games, this is a symptom of the fact that benefits were set at a level that was too expensive to be affordable or sustainable. Because actually making the full payments would have been budget-busting and caused unacceptably high tax levels, both Republicans and Democrats at the state and local levels have sought creative ways to avoid making the full actuarial pension payments over the years.

  • Republican former Gov. Jim Edgar negotiated a payment ramp with the General Assembly that violated actuarial best practices of funding. First, the payments were stretched out over 50 years while actuaries typically recommend 20-year payment schedules and no more than 30. In practice, this means payments were low during Edgar’s term and spiked dramatically for his successors. Second, the funding target was set at 90% rather than 100%, meaning the state’s current funding plan does not fully anticipate paying off the debt.
  • Democratic former Gov. Rod Blagojevich issued bonds to pay off part of the pension debt but then used those proceeds as an excuse to reduce the state’s regular pension contributions from the operating budget. At the time, this “pension holiday” was supported by several of the state’s politically active public sector unions, including the Service Employees International Union, the Illinois Federation of Teachers and the Illinois Education Association.
  • Due to the lack of a funding requirement from the state, local mayors have regularly shorted their contributions to downstate police and fire pension funds in cities across Illinois. Pension benefits for local governments are established by state law. In other words, mayors were struggling to manage their own budgets and provide services without an unreasonable tax burden while being forced to pay for unsustainable pension benefits they played little to no role in creating. Now that the state is enforcing full required payments, local mayors in several towns have been forced to lay off police officers and firefighters or otherwise cut municipal services to pay for pensions.

But rather than being a core cause of the pension crisis, these funding games are a symptom of the fact that the full payments are unaffordable.

State and local governments in Illinois already spend the most in the nation on pensions as both a percentage of their total revenues – about double the national average – and compared to the size of the state’s economy. Illinois pension debt is equal to roughly one-third of everything the state’s businesses and residents produce in a year.

Illinois’ ever-growing pension spending is already crowding out core government services. The state spends about one-third less today, adjusted for inflation, than it did in the year 2000 on core services including child protection, state police and college money for poor students. During that time pension spending increased 501%.

Despite these facts, some opponents of pension reform have maintained that “underfunding” of the pension systems is a chief cause of the debt. In a very narrow financial sense, this might be true. The existence of any form of debt is proof that not enough money has been set aside.

But in terms of the conclusions drawn by pension reform opponents, nothing could be further from the truth than the idea Illinois has a pension crisis because taxpayers haven’t been paying enough. They already pay the most and would have to double the amount they’re paying to eliminate the debt.

To show just how absurd the “underfunding” argument really is, imagine you took out a $1 million mortgage on a $40,000 annual income.

Your monthly mortgage payment — not including property taxes — would total $3,800 using today’s standard interest rate. Problem is, your monthly take-home pay — after accounting for state and local taxes — is about $2,650

 

As much as you wanted that house, you never would have been able to afford that monthly cost, given your ability to pay. Before long, the bank will come knocking to repossess the property.

You may have “underfunded” your mortgage, but only because you originally overpromised on what you would be able to pay. Similarly, Illinois politicians promised pension benefits that taxpayers never could and never would be able to afford. They designed a system with no flexibility or risk sharing, placing all the burden on taxpayers to make up for the shortfalls of their mismanagement.

Illinois pensions were underfunded because they were overpromised. Rather than dealing with the painful tax hikes necessary to fully fund exorbitant benefits, politicians racked up debt, placing the burden of pension funding on the state’s young and unborn.

Regardless, it’s clear that tax hikes are not a potential solution going forward.

Those who deny the extravagance of current Illinois pension benefits also elude a key question: What next? To catch up the states’ five pension systems, Illinois median income family would have to see a tax hike of about $1,800, per year.

Is there any way out of Illinois’ pension crisis?

Tax hikes are not a responsible or realistic solution to the worst pension crisis in the nation. Illinois’ tax burden is already one of the nation’s most painful and the top reason residents cite for wanting to leave the state.

Illinois could file for bankruptcy protection under hypothetical legislation similar to the “PROMESA” law Congress passed to deal with Puerto Rico’s financial distress, but that scenario is extreme and unlikely. The state’s only viable option is meaningful pension reform. That starts with a constitutional amendment to allow changes to unearned, future benefits.

Rather than deleting the pension protection clause entirely, Illinois should seek to modify it to match states such as Hawaii or Michigan which protect only “accrued benefits.” Subsequent pension reforms should include raising retirement ages for younger workers, capping maximum pensionable salaries, and doing away with guaranteed permanent benefit increases in favor of a true cost-of-living adjustment pegged to inflation.

An actuarial analysis, performed by a certified professional actuary and commissioned by the Illinois Policy Institute, shows that reform to unearned future benefits could save roughly $2 billion per year in pension contributions and fully eliminate the debt by 2045. From now until 2045, total savings would be $50.92 billion. That’s all possible without taking away a single dollar earned to date.

The concept of future benefit reforms has been successfully enacted in Colorado as well as in Arizona, which had support from union leaders who realized pensions were in peril.

Pension reform is a moral imperative. The alternative is a future in which core services are cut, taxes are raised on a dwindling number of taxpayers and pensioners risk losing what they’ve already been promised as the funds go insolvent.

If Illinoisans work together, common-sense pension reform can work for everyone.

END
The Fed’s National Activity index plunges into negative territory showing slowing growth
(zerohedge)

Fed’s “National Activity Index” Plunges Back Into Contraction

Despite soaring stock prices, exuberant talking heads, and ebullient politicians (on the right), The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index crashed from +0.41 to -0.35 in November (drastically worse than the +0.13 expectation).

Twenty-seven indicators improved from November to December, while 56 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged.

25 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions, while 60 indicators affected the index negatively.

A reading below 0 indicates below-trend growth in national economy.

Source: Bloomberg

The smoother 3m average seen above has been “below-trend” for 10 straight months now, but that doesn’t matter for stocks.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Amazing:  Joe Biden in a memo tells the media what to say about the Ukrainian mess that Hunter Biden and his father created

(/John Solomon//zerohedge)

Fact-Checking Joe Biden’s “Debunked Conspiracy Theory” Memo Telling Liberal Media What To Say About Ukraine

Via JohnSolomonReports.com,

Former vice president Joe Biden’s extraordinary campaign memo this week imploring U.S. news media to reject the allegations surrounding his son Hunter’s work for a Ukrainian natural gas company makes several bold declarations.

The memo by Biden campaign aides Kate Bedingfield and Tony Blinken specifically warned reporters covering the impeachment trial they would be acting as “enablers of misinformation” if they repeated allegations that the former vice president forced the firing of Ukraine’s top prosecutor, who was investigating Burisma Holdings, where Hunter Biden worked as a highly compensated board member.

Biden’s memo argues there is no evidence that the former vice president’s or Hunter Biden’s conduct raised any concern, and that Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin’s investigation was “dormant” when the vice president forced the prosecutor to be fired in Ukraine.

The memo calls the allegation a “conspiracy theory”  (and, in full disclosure, blames my reporting for the allegations surfacing last year.)

But the memo omits critical impeachment testimony and other evidence that paint a far different portrait than Biden’s there’s-nothing-to-talk-about-here rebuttal.

Here are the facts, with links to public evidence, so you can decide for yourself.

Fact: Joe Biden admitted to forcing Shokin’s firing in March 2016.

It is irrefutable, and not a conspiracy theory, that Joe Biden bragged in this 2018 speech to a foreign policy group that he threatened in March 2016 to withhold $1 billion in U.S. aid to Kiev if then-Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko didn’t immediately fire Shokin.

“I said, ‘You’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,’” Biden told the 2018 audience in recounting what he told Poroshenko

“Well, son of a bitch, he got fired. And they put in place someone who was solid at the time,” Biden told the Council on Foreign Relations event.

Fact: Shokin’s prosecutors were actively investigating Burisma when he was fired.

While some news organizations cited by the Biden memo have reported the investigation was “dormant” in March 2016, official files released by the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office, in fact, show there was substantial investigative activity in the weeks just before Joe Biden forced Shokin’s firing.

The corruption investigations into Burisma and its founder began in 2014. Around the same time, Hunter Biden and his U.S. business partner Devon Archer were added to Burisma’s board, and their Rosemont Seneca Bohais firm began receiving regular $166,666 monthly payments, which totaled nearly $2 million a year. Both banks records seized by the FBI in America and Burisma’s own ledgers in Ukraine confirm these payments.

To put the payments in perspective, the annual amounts paid by Burisma to Hunter Biden’s and Devon Archer’s Rosemont Seneca Bohais firm were 30 times the average median annual household income for everyday Americans.

For a period of time in 2015, those investigations were stalled as Ukraine was creating a new FBI-like law enforcement agency known as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau ((NABU) to investigate endemic corruption in the former Soviet republic.

There was friction between NABU and the prosecutor general’s office for a while. And then in September 2015, then-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt demanded more action in the Burisma investigation. You can read his speech here. Activity ramped up extensively soon after.

In December 2015, the prosecutor’s files show, Shokin’s office transferred the evidence it had gathered against Burisma to NABU for investigation.

In early February 2016, Shokin’s office secured a court order allowing prosecutors to re-seize some of the Burisma founder’s property, including his home and luxury car, as part of the ongoing probe.

Two weeks later, in mid-February 2016, Latvian law enforcement sent this alert to Ukrainian prosecutors flagging several payments from Burisma to American accounts as “suspicious.” The payments included some monies to Hunter Biden’s and Devon Archer’s firm. Latvian authorities recently confirmed it sent the alert.

Shokin told both me and ABC News that just before he was fired under pressure from Joe Biden he also was making plans to interview Hunter Biden.

Fact: Burisma’s lawyers in 2016 were pressing U.S. and Ukrainian authorities to end the corruption investigations.

Burisma’s main U.S. lawyer John Buretta acknowledged in this February 2017 interview with a Ukraine newspaper that the company remained under investigation in 2016, until he negotiated for one case to be dismissed and the other to be settled by payment of a large tax penalty.

Documents released under an open records lawsuit show Burisma legal team was pressuring the State Department in February 2016 to end the corruption allegations against the gas firm and specifically invoked Hunter Biden’s name as part of the campaign. You can read those documents here.

In addition, immediately after Joe Biden succeeded in getting Shokin ousted, Burisma’s lawyers sought to meet with his successor as chief prosecutor to settle the case. Here is the Ukrainian prosecutors’ summary memo of one of their meetings with the firm’s lawyers.

Fact: There is substantial evidence Joe Biden and his office knew about the Burisma probe and his son’s role as a board member.

The New York Times reported in this December 2015 article that the Burisma investigation was ongoing and Hunter Biden’s role in the company was undercutting Joe Biden’s push to fight Ukrainian corruption. The article quoted the vice president’s office.

In addition, Hunter Biden acknowledged in this interview he had discussed his Burisma job with his father on one occasion and that his father responded by saying he hoped the younger Biden knew what he was doing.

And when America’s new ambassador to Ukraine was being confirmed in 2016 before the Senate she was specifically advised to refer questions about Hunter Biden, Burisma and the probe to Joe Biden’s VP office, according to these State Department documents.

Fact: Federal Ethics rules requires government officials to avoid taking policy actions affecting close relatives.

Office of Government Ethics rules require all government officials to recuse themselves from any policy actions that could impact a close relative or cause a reasonable person to see the appearance of a conflict of interest or question their impartiality.

“The impartiality rule requires an employee to consider appearance concerns before participating in a particular matter if someone close to the employee is involved as a party to the matter,” these rules state. “This requirement to refrain from participating (or recuse) is designed to avoid the appearance of favoritism in government decision-making.”

Fact: Multiple State Department officials testified the Bidens’ dealings in Ukraine created the appearance of a conflict of interest.

In House impeachment testimony, Obama-era State Department officials declared the juxtaposition of Joe Biden overseeing Ukraine policy, including the anti-corruption efforts, at the same his son Hunter worked for a Ukraine gas firm under corruption investigation created the appearance of a conflict of interest.

In fact, deputy assistant secretary George Kent said he was so concerned by Burisma’s corrupt reputation that he blocked a project the State Department had with Burisma and tried to warn Joe Biden’s office about the concerns about an apparent conflict of interest.

Likewise, the House Democrats’ star impeachment witness, former U.S. Ambassador Marie Yovanovich, agreed the Bidens’ role in Ukraine created an ethic issue. “I think that it could raise the appearance of a conflict of interest,” she testified. You can read her testimony here.

Fact: Hunter Biden acknowleged he may have gotten his Burisma job solely because of his last name.

In this interview last summer, Hunter Biden said it might have been a “mistake” to serve on the Burisma board and that it was possible he was hired simply because of his proximity to the vice president.

“If your last name wasn’t Biden, do you think you would’ve been asked to be on the board of Burisma?,” a reporter asked.

“I don’t know. I don’t know. Probably not, in retrospect,” Hunter Biden answered. “But that’s — you know — I don’t think that there’s a lot of things that would have happened in my life if my last name wasn’t Biden.”

Fact: Ukraine law enforcement reopened the Burisma investigation in early 2019, well before President Trump mentioned the matter to Ukraine’s new president Vlodymyr Zelensky.

This may be the single biggest under-reported fact in the impeachment scandal: four months before Trump and Zelensky had their infamous phone call, Ukraine law enforcement officials officially reopened their investigation into Burisma and its founder.

The effort began independent of Trump or his lawyer Rudy Giuliani’s legal work. In fact, it was NABU – the very agency Joe Biden and the Obama administration helped start – that recommended in February 2019 to reopen the probe.

NABU director Artem Sytnyk made this announcement that he was recommending a new notice of suspicion be opened to launch the case against Burisma and its founder because of new evidence uncovered by detectives.

Ukrainian officials said that new evidence included records suggesting a possible money laundering scheme dating to 2010 and continuing until 2015.

A month later in March 2019, Deputy Prosecutor General Konstantin Kulyk officially filed this notice of suspicion re-opening the case.

And Reuters recently quoted Ukrainian officials as saying the ongoing probe was expanded to allegations of theft of public funds.

The implications of this timetable are significant to the Trump impeachment trial because the president couldn’t have pressured Ukraine to re-open the investigation in July 2019 when Kiev had already done so on its own, months earlier.

For a complete timeline of all the key events in the Ukraine scandal, you can click here.

end

Adam Schiff has been caught mischaracterizing an email from Parnas to Guiliani referencing a mr Z.  Schiff states that Mr Z was President Zelensky but in fact Mr Z is Zlochevsky, the head of Burisma. Schiff redacted an email which collaborated the real Mr Z as Zlochevsky

(zerohedge)

 

Adam Schiff Caught “Mischaracterizing” Evidence Day One Of Senate Impeachment Trial

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) was caught “mischaracterizing” evidence on day one, Tuesday, of the Senate impeachment trial.

The left-leaning Politicoclaims that Schiff released inaccurate information about a text message between Rudy Giuliani and Lev Parnas on July 3, 2019, about organizing a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Schiff’s report was sent to House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler (D-NY) last week that summarizes “a trove of evidence from Lev Parnas, an indicted former associate of Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani,” Politico reported.

Elizabeth Harrington

@LizRNC

Watch Schiff make up more fake dialogue

It was bad enough he made up the President’s phone call in the House, now he’s fabricating what the president of Ukraine said (no pressure) in the Senate

Democrats have no case, so they just make schiff up

Embedded video

The report claims in a text message conversation between Giuliani and Parnas, Parnas said: “trying to get us mr Z.” The remainder of the letter was redacted. 

Politico added, “But an unredacted version of the exchange shows that several days later, Parnas sent Giuliani a word document that appears to show notes from an interview with Mykola Zlochevsky, the founder of Burisma, followed by a text message to Giuliani that states: ‘mr Z answers my brother.’ That suggests Parnas was referring to Zlochevsky, not Zelensky.”

A Republican aide told Politico that Schiff’s assumption that “mr Z” is Zelensky is ludicrous.

“The most charitable view of the situation is that [Schiff’s] staff committed the equivalent of Congressional malpractice by not looking more than an inch deep to determine the facts before foisting this erroneous information on his colleagues and the American public,” said one senior GOP aide.

“But given the selective redactions and contextual clues, it seems as though Chairman Schiff sought to portray an innocuous meeting with Ukrainian oligarch Mykola Zlochevsky as an insidious one with the President of Ukraine simply because both of their surnames start with the letter Z,” the GOP aide added.

TheLastRefuge@TheLastRefuge2

“Mischaracterized”? Yeah right… It’s Schiff. He’s a liar. Schiff may have mischaracterized Parnas evidence, documents show https://politi.co/3awpjTU via @politico

Schiff may have mischaracterized Parnas evidence, documents show

Unredacted material shows he may have referred to the wrong “Mr. Z.”

politico.com

Dan Bongino

@dbongino

Sleazeball Schiff busted AGAIN! This dude simply cannot tell the truth. He’s allergic to facts. Don’t trust a word out of his lying mouth. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/21/schiff-parnas-trump-evidence-101832 

Schiff may have mischaracterized Parnas evidence, documents show

Unredacted material shows he may have referred to the wrong “Mr. Z.”

politico.com

 

Schiff has issued false information in Trump-related investigations before. 

It was reported in September 2019 that Schiff fabricated the account of a July 25 call between Trump and Zelensky, to analogize the interaction to a scene from a mafia drama.

And last month, Schiff said during a Fox News interview that he wasn’t willing to admit wrong in his defense of the FBI’s FISA process: “I’m certainly willing to admit that the inspector general found serious abuses of FISA that I was unaware of.”

Trump responded by saying, “Schiff’s correcting the record memo has turned out to be totally wrong (based on the I.G. Report)! A very big lie. @MariaBartiromo And @DevinNunes has turned out to be completely right. Congratulations to Devin. The Fake News Media should apologize to all!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Schiff’s correcting the record memo has turned out to be totally wrong (based on the I.G. Report)! A very big lie. @MariaBartiromo And @DevinNunes has turned out to be completely right. Congratulations to Devin. The Fake News Media should apologize to all!

end

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

[China state conduit] @HuXijin_GT: Coronavirus cases have been found in other places out of Wuhan, Hubei Province, indicating the epidemic is expanding. Concerns are mounting. It is inevitable that people will cut their trips during Spring Festival and holiday consumption will be hit.Well that is all for today

First coronavirus case confirmed in US: CDC – The patient, a male U.S. resident in his 30s, has been hospitalized, officials said. He is in good condition and poses little risk to the general public, they said. The man had traveled from China to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on Jan. 15 and reached out to his health care provider on Jan. 19 after he developed symptoms…

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-us-case-cdc-china

WaPo: Coronavirus screenings to expand to Chicago and Atlanta airports for travelers from Wuhan, China

 Politico reports: Schiff may have mischaracterized Parnas evidence, documents show

Schiff claims that Parnas “continued to try to arrange a meeting with President Zelensky,” citing a specific text message exchange where Parnas tells Giuliani: “trying to get us mr Z.” The remainder of the exchange — which was attached to Schiff’s letter — was redacted.  But an unredacted version of the exchange shows that several days later, Parnas sent Giuliani a word document that appears to show notes from an interview with Mykola Zlochevsky, the founder of Burisma, followed by a text message to Giuliani that states: “mr Z answers my brother.” That suggests Parnas was referring to Zlochevsky not Zelensky…  https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/21/schiff-parnas-trump-evidence-101832

The Hill’s @Olivia_Beavers: “This is very important,” Schiff said in his push to receive new documents/witness testimony. “The President must not be allowed to mislead you by introducing documents selectively while holding all the rest.”  “You may infer the president’s guilt” from withholding these, he says.  [Schiff started off by imploring senators to keep an open mind!  You can’t make this up!]

 

Schiff said Trump’s mounting of a legal defense is evidence of guilt.  House managers actually played a video of Vindman complaining that Trump didn’t follow the advice of his employees.

 

Sen. @LindseyGrahamSC: Stunning admission by the House Managers. The House Managers on the floor admitted that going to federal court would get in the way of impeaching the President before the election.  And in that case — the Court be damned!  Unbelievably, they are asking the Senate to take the same position…

 

Due to pressure from Senate RINOs, McConnell changed the trial schedule to 24 hours over three days (from 2 days) for the impeachment managers.  The WH defense expects to make its case in one day.

 

DJT Atty Sekulow: “The President was denied the right to cross-examine witnesses.  The President was denied the right to access evidence. And the President was denied the right to have counsel present at hearings. That’s a trifecta—a trifecta that violates the Constitution of the United States.”

 

Jerry Nadler Suggests Having No Impeachment Witnesses Preferable to Hunter Biden Testifying

https://pjmedia.com/trending/jerry-nadler-having-no-impeachment-witnesses-preferable-to-hunter-biden-testifying/

 

Joe Biden’s Brother Frank Linked to Projects Receiving $54,000,000 in Taxpayer Loans from the Obama Administration—Despite No Experience – “Just months after Vice President [Joe] Biden’s visit, in August, Costa Rica News announced a new multilateral partnership “to reform Real Estate in Latin America” between Frank Biden, a developer named Craig Williamson, and the Guanacaste Country Club, a newly planned resort,”…  https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/01/20/joe-bidens-brother-frank-linked-to-projects-receiving-54000000-in-taxpayer-loans-from-the-obama-administration-despite-no-experience/

 

Catherine Herridge @CBS_Herridge: IG Horowitz revisions to published FISA report. The “updated” “corrected information” impacts Spring 2016 timeline of FBI activity.  CBS News asked IG spox how issues came to light, and who/what agency flagged them.  IG spox declined comment beyond changes

 

Hillary Clinton unleashes on Bernie Sanders in new documentary: ‘Nobody likes him’

She blasted the self-declared democratic socialist senator from Vermont on accusations of sexism that have plagued his campaign… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/clinton-bernie-in-new-documentary

END

I will see you THURSDAY night.

 

 

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