JAN 23//GOLD UP $8.90 TO $1565.90//SILVER UP ONE CENT TO $17.84//QUEUE JUMPING FOR GOLD/NIL FOR SILVER//CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMIC IS TAKING CENTRE STAGE IN CHINA/GLOBE//GREAT LAKES TRAFFIC PLUMMETS//USA LEADING INDICATORS AT LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE 2009//GOOD SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1565.90 UP $8.90    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Silver:$17.84 UP 1 CENT  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Gold :  $1563.30

 

silver:  $17.80

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/9

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES

SETTLEMENT: 1,555.300000000 USD

INTENT DATE: 01/22/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/24/2020

FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

____________________________________________________________________________________________

435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 4

737 C ADVANTAGE 7 1

905 C ADM 2 4

____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 9 9

MONTH TO DATE: 2,689

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 9 NOTICE(S) FOR 900 OZ (0.02799 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2689 NOTICES FOR 268,900 OZ  (8.3639 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 669 for  3,345,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8429 DOWN $255 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8394 DOWN 269

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL A SMALL SIZED 182 CONTRACTS FROM 233,858 DOWN TO 233,676 DESPITE OUR TINY  1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

 

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  GOOD  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  801 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  801 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 801 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 801 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.00 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

3.360     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 1 CENT).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 619 CONTRACTS. OR 3.095 MILLION OZ…..

THE TREND SEEMS TO BE THAT OUR BANKERS ARE BECOMING LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE COMEX SILVER (AND GOLD) PAPER. THE EMPHASIS IS NOW ON INCREASINGLY SUPPLYING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

20,831 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 20,831 CONTRACTS) OR 104.155 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1386 CONTRACTS OR 6.9336 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN: 104.155 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.87% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          104.155 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 104.155 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 182, WITH THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /WEDNESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 801 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED  SIZED: 619 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 801 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 182 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A ONE CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.83 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.180 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 169% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  nil OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 3,360,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4151 CONTRACTS TO 789,678 AND MOVING MOVING AWAY FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 799,541 (SET JAN 16/2016)  AND FURTHER FROM  OUR PREVIOUS  RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $1.00 IN PRICING ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY//   MOST OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS STARTING RIGHT ON TIME (ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE) 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  STRONG SIZED 8790 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  8190 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 600; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 789,678,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4639 CONTRACTS: 4151 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 8790 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4639 CONTRACTS OR 463,900 OZ OR 14.42 TONNES.  WEDNESDAY WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF $1.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 16.53  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $1.00)THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR GOOD GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (14.42 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 129,103 CONTRACTS OR 12,910,300 oz OR 401.56 TONNES (15 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8593 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 401.56 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 401.56/3550 x 100% TONNES =11.31% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:    401.56  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 401.56 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4151 WITH THE SMALL PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK WEDNESDAY($1.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8790 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8790 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4639 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8790 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4639 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 14.42 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.00 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY

 

 

 

 

JAN 23/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 898.82 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY

 

 

JAN 23/INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 182 CONTRACTS from 233,858 DOWN TO 233,676 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 2817

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  801:  AND MAY: 0; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 801 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 182 CONTRACTS TO THE 801 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 619 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.095 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 3.3600 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 801 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 84.23 POINTS OR 2.75%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 431.92 POINTS OR 1.52%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 235.91 POINTS OR 0.98%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9333 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9333 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9275 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA
The Coronavirus is already slashing 2002 GDP growth in China. A widespread slowdown in all provinces persists
(zerohedge)

ii) CHINA

China is quarantining off two major cities and planning on another two.  Some have restricted travel
(zerohedge)

iii)CHINA

China plans on scraping Lunar celebrations as the outbreak intensifies

(zerohedge)

iv)CHINA
The Coronavirus seems to have the same genetic sequence in snakes and rats and that is  it passed to humans  through bites.  Some snakes have been consumed by humans and that is how it passed.
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/LEBANON/ISRAEL

Lebanon has a new IRGC Quds commander Force #2 and he is the mastermind behind their missile program. Israel is very worried that the government is now under Hezbollah control

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN/USA

 

USA envoy promises that the new Soleimani replacement will face the same fate as he did if he harms one USA citizen

(zerohedge)

iii)RUSSIA/USA/SYRIA

 

This is rather scary!! USA troops confront Russian troops seeking the oil fields.  Quite a dangerous standoff.

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

GREAT LAKES/CARGO

We have witnessed the Baltic Dry index collapse, we have the main shipping lanes from the USA to China and visa versa collapse as well as routes from Europe to China and its reverse, Now we witness international cargo along the Great Lakes plunge 7%

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Chris Powell has a novel idea.  Let us call the BIS before any explanations are given for gold’s direction

(Chris Powell)

ii) J Johnson’s comex commentary

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)My goodness is this escalating fast:  USA leading indicators are plunging at the worst rate since 2009.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)ANOTHER STRONG INDICATOR THAT THE ENTIRE GLOBE FINANCES HAVE SHUTDOWN: TWO DALLAS AREA CHIP FACTORIES ARE CLOSING

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)Would you believe this? Biden will not deport drunk illegal drivers. It is interesting that his first wife and son were killed by a drunk drive

(zerohedge)

ii)This out to be fun;  Hunter Biden has been ordered to appear in court next week on contempt charges

(zerohedge)

iii)This is a good one:  Senator Grassley demands answer from the ONA on defense contracts awarded by the ONA/  He demands many answers to questions posed:

(Sara Carter)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4151 CONTRACTS TO 789,678 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR RECORD SET THIS PAST WEEK: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND MOVING AWAY FROM OUR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH A SLIGHT LOSS OF $1.00 IN GOLD PRICING // WEDNESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

IT NOW SEEMS THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE COMEX PAPER. THEY ARE CONCENTRATING MORE ON THE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8790 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 8190; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 600,  JUNE : 00 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8790 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED 4639 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8,790 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4151 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $1.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED  4639 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES….

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  4639 CONTRACTS OR 463900 OZ OR 14.42 TONNES.  

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  789,678 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 78.97 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,456 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,456/2200 OR 111.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 30 open interest left to be served upon, for a LOSS of 8 contracts.   We had 23 notices served up on yesterday so we surprisingly gained another 15 contracts or an additional 1,500 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF ONLY 36,610 in contracts DOWN to 312,223.  

March GAINED 79 contracts to stand at an open interest of, 1169.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 29,574 contacts up to 336,225 oi contracts.

We had 9 open interest notices served upon today for 900 oz

the front month of February is not contracting enough (WITH RESPECT TO OI) and thus it seems we will have another strong amount of gold standing for delivery. We have just 6 more reading days before first day notice.  

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 182 CONTRACTS FROM 233,858 DOWN TO 233,676 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A TINY 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/WEDNESDAY.

AS IN GOLD, OUR BANKERS ARE LOATHE TO SUPPLY ADDITIONAL SILVER COMEX PAPER.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a LOSS of 152 contracts TO 3. We had 152 notices served on yesterday, so we gained NIL CONTRACTS or nil additional oz will stand at the comex for delivery  during this non active delivery month of January.

 

 

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a loss of 20 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  435.  March is a very active month and here we witness a loss of 985 contracts  DOWN 172,935

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A STRONG FEBRUARY SILVER STANDING FOR METAL.

 

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 399,764 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  373,688 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

JAN 23/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
8037.50 oz
Loomis
250 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
9 notice(s)
 900 OZ
(0.02799 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
23 contracts
(2300 oz)
0.0715 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2689 notices
268,900 OZ
8.3639 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into

everybody else: 0

 

total deposits:  0  oz

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of LOOMIS:  8037.50 oz

250 kilobars

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  8037.50 oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  1

out of HSBC;  927.654 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account and we will deem that a settlement:  .0288 tonnes

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  ADDED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

207,363.857 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 9 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2689) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (30 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (9 x 100 oz per contract) equals 271200 OZ OR 8.4354 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2689 x 100 oz)  + (30)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (9 x 100 oz )which equals 271200 oz standing OR 8.435 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED 15 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1500 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.956 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.435 TONNES

 

total: 130,32 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2828 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 130.32  tonnes

 

Thus:

130.32 tonnes of delivery –

19.2828 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 111.03 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.956 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,333,259.969 oz or  41.46 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   210,391.357 oz x ( 6.54403 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,122,868.6  (34.925 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,122,868.6  (34.925 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,691914.499 oz 270.35 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JAN 23 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 112,796.162 oz
Brinks
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
599,613.184 oz
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
 15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  669 contracts

3,345,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into HSBC: 599,613.184 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  599,613.184  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

i) Out of  Brinks: 59,478.29 oz

ii) Out of Delaware; 2865.10 oz

iii) Out of Scotia: 50,452.772

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 112,796.162   oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) out of CNT::  602,366.100 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account and this is a settlement

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  85.897 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.805 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 669 x 5,000 oz =3,345,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (3) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 669 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (3- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals 3,360,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL nil OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  68,748 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 63,069 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 63,069 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 315 million  OZ   45.0.% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42

The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.74% ((JAN 23/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.32% to NAV (JAN 23/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -0.74%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.47 TRADING 15.02///DISCOUNT  2.91

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

 

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JAN 23/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 879.49 tonnes

*IN LAST 747 TRADING DAYS: 38.63 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 647 TRADING DAYS: A NET 128.42. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 22.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

353.830 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.83/ and libor 6 month duration 1.82

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .01

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO

+ 1.85%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.91

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.06

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Chris powell has a novel idea.  Let us call the BIS before any explanations are given for gold’s direction

(Chris Powell)

Why not call the BIS before contriving explanations for gold’s direction?

 Section: 

9:50p ET Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Practically every day prompts those who consider themselves market analysts to contrive explanations for movements in the gold price, no matter how implausible.

Zaner Metals in Chicago attributed today’s slight decline in the gold price to concerns about the new virus that has appeared in China:

 

Gold Caught In Coronavirus Cross-Current

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com, Road Town, Tortola, British Virgin Islands

via Yahoo Finance

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-caught-coronavirus-cross-current-153…

Investors in gold are undecided about the coronavirus, with early indications that it could hurt bullion demand in China as much as boost safe-haven buying. So the yellow metal dipped again today, while palladium rebounded, making a new record high in futures trade. …

The world is reacting in a deflationary manner to the news of a spread of the pneumonia-like virus in China,” Zaner Metals said in a note. “The trade is justified in factoring in some slowing fears and that in turn has applied pressure to gold, silver, and nearly every physical commodity.” …

There is no indication in Investing.com’s story that Zaner Metals talked today with anyone buying or selling gold.

More important, there is no indication that before drawing any conclusions about the gold price Zaner Metals inquired with, for example, the Bank for International Settlements about any surreptitious intervention undertaken in the gold market this week by the bank or its member central banks, though such surreptitious intervention can be discerned in the footnotes of the bank’s monthly reports, like the most recent report, December’s, analyzed by GATA consultant Robert Lambourne here:

http://www.gata.org/node/19693

Central banks are the biggest participants in the gold market and yet rare is the gold market analyst who ever puts a critical question to them or reports that they refuse to answer questions about their interventions.

Rarer still is the journalist who poses such questions himself instead of merely repeating the silly contrivances offered by the market analysts.

The power to create and dispense infinite money in secret helps central banks rule the world, but most of all they require the negligence of financial journalism.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

CPowell@GATA.org

 

END

iii) Other physical stories:

J Johnson’s comex commentary

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/01/23/all-comex-deliveries-matter/

All Comex Deliveries Matter!

Posted January 23rd, 2020 at 9:23 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed

under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,

     Gold is lower in the early morning with the trade at $1,560.00 (April Contract) down $3 and recovering from the London Bop at $1,557.50 with the high to beat at $1,569.40. March Silver’s trade is at $17.65 down 17.8 cents after being knocked down to $17.590 with the high to beat at $17.910. If all this is to support the US Dollar, it’s not showing in its value with the trade at 97.305, up 1 point inside a 9.5-point trading range between 97.365 and 97.270. Of course all this happened already before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after 2 days of Russia, Russia, Russia, being chanted in the Senate, by a group that still believes they know what facts are, especially the facts they choose to ignore. Everyone has the choice of reading the transcript themselves, or wait for their favorite TV show host to tell them everything except to “read the transcript”. Btw, we believe most have read the “perfect phone call” and read what the Ukrainian leader said about it too.

      Pullbacks seems to be the name of the game these past few days with Gold in Venezuelan, now trading at 15,580.50 Bolivar as the rollovers (Feb to Apr) start to muck up our price changes with Silver trading at 176.279 Bolivar dropping another 1.199 in value. In Argentina, Gold’s value is now at 93,578.87 Peso’s with Silver losing 7.80 with its price now at 1,058.76 Peso’s. The Turkish Lira now values Gold at 9,254.45 Lira with Silver now at 104.706 T-Lira, proving a 0.552 T-Lira reduction in its value.

      January Silver Deliveries continue to make anyone who watches these antics frustrated because the cloud of secrecy continues as apparently a purchase and delivery, over the past few trading days of over 1 million ounces in total, went thru without prices being posted and that apparently is ok with Comex proving to us, why they cannot be trusted as we wait for a separate outside auditor (friends of the DOJ?) to confirm what the criminal element and its governing friends claim is not worthy of a price. Today’s Physical Silver Demand count is now back to 3 proving a reduction of 152 and again, without any prices posted during yesterday’s trades. So far this morning we have a Volume of 2 and again with no price.

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest increased during yesterday’s activity with the total count now at 234,188 Overnighters, proving 228 more shorts had to be added in order to stay the price, as we wonder how many more shorts had to be added during the early morning London Bop to get the price as low as it is now? Gold’s Open Interest current sits at 790,354 proving the rollover reduction of 4,374 Overnighters and with 5 more days before the Options come off the board, then making February the point of delivery.

     Nothing yet seems to shake the precious metals price free from control. The Open Interest is still highly elevated proving the over assigned paper contracts, “IS” the price control mechanism as the deliveries, which seem to get ignored by everyone but us (JSMineSet and the GATA Team), are brushed aside and as the Repo-Printing continues since Sept 17th. Someone posted a good question which we will repeat; “Was the REPO emergency caused by the spike in Silver’s price that started in the last days of May”?  It is within this time period that ended our 100-million-dollar Silver Call Options insurance policy that someone placed over 4 years ago at the same time the Open Interest found more paper.

      We stand guard and bring forth everything we can regarding the elements of criminal activity within the markets that are manipulating the prices of real money. In short, All Comex Deliveries Matter! Especially a million-ounce purchase within the Comex that got no posted price. None of this can last without physicals.

     So, keep that smile on your face, a positive attitude in the head no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

CPowell@GATA.org

 

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9333/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9275   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 84.23 POINTS OR 2.75%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 431.92 POINTS OR 1.52%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 235.91 POINTS OR 0.98%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT ITALY/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.52/Euro FALLS TO 1.1091

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.60/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.89 and Brent: 62.33

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.27%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.29% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.56: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.34

3k Gold at $1556.00 silver at: 17.70   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 4/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.90

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.60 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9683 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0739 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.27%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.74% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.19%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9303..

Global Stocks Slide, China Plunges Most Since May As Optimism Virus Is Contained Mutates To Pessimism

Yesterday’s optimism that China’s coronavirus epidemic is contained (supposedly because Beijing was “transparent” with the fiasco and Trump was convinced by Xi) which sent S&P futures to an all time high of 3,333 has mutated into pessimism that it isn’t…

 

… after China quarantined two cities (one with 11 million, the other with 6 million people), which sent US equity futures and global markets sliding and Chinese stocks tumbling.

 

The global risk off mood, was led by the biggest decline in Chinese stocks in more than eight months, as concerns mounted that the spread of a deadly virus in China is now beyond Beijing’s control and will affect everything from tourism to corporate sales and economies. With millions of Chinese preparing to travel for the Lunar New Year which begins on Saturday, the potential the disease to spread, along with the tendency of traders to reduce their exposure before holidays, left markets struggling.

Deaths in China from the coronavirus rose to 17 on Wednesday, with nearly 600 cases confirmed. The outbreak has evoked memories of SARS in 2002-2003, another coronavirus that broke out in China and killed nearly 800 people worldwide.

“The coronavirus has introduced some caution,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. “There is no reason to expect a global pandemic now, but there is some repricing in financial markets.”

As the virus took hold, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.07%. Chinese shares dropped 2.8%, the biggest daily decline since May, when Trump’s threats of additional tariffs on Chinese goods rocked financial markets, and biggest drop on the last trading day before the Lunar New Year holiday in the benchmark’s three-decade history. Hong Kong shares ended down 1.5% and Japan’s Nikkei index slid 1%.

 

European stocks followed Asia lower as mining shares led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lower. Euro Stoxx 50 pares earlier losses to trade 0.2% lower, DAX down 0.4% after falling as much as 0.8%. E-mini S&P futures little changed.

Among major currencies, the Chinese yuan fell to a two-week low, on course for its worst week since August. The Japanese yen climbed 0.2% to secure a third day of gains. Other safe havens government bonds also rose with the yield on 10Y TSYs sliding to 1.75%. Core European, U.K and U.S. bond yields are 2bps-3bps lower across most maturities, with slight curve flattening bias in 2y-10y tenors. Italian bonds and equities outperform, shrugging off potential political uncertainty. 10-yr BTP yield -7bps, FTSE MIB +0.7%.

“Ultimately, the coronavirus is a slow-burning but important story for markets that is likely to last for months rather than just a few days,” said TD Securities’ European head of currency strategy, Ned Rumpeltin. “And the natural go-to currencies when there are headlines like these are the yen and the Swiss franc.”

Elsewhere in FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index was little changed alongside the euro ahead of the European Central Bank policy decision. The Australian dollar led gains in the Group-of-10 currencies following better-than-expected jobs data which dampened rate-cut expectations. The Swiss franc rose to a near three-year high against the euro overnight, but it was trading little changed as the focus in Europe turned to its central banks. Norway’s central bank had already left its interest rates unchanged.

The ECB holds its first meeting of the year later on Thursday, where it’s expected to outline its first formal policy review in 17 years. It will probably last for most of the year and span topics from the inflation target to digital money and the fight against climate change. “Quite a lot has happened in the last 17 years,” Rumpeltin said. “They are due for a rethink.”  ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak to the press afterwards.

In other central bank news, SNB Chairman Jordan does not see a new minimum exchange rate at present, noting that CHF remains highly valued and it’s important to keep expansive policy. Negative rates are a necessity in Switzerland could cut rates further if needed, he sees slight Swiss growth improvement this year, but more risks are to the downside; aware that negative rates have side effects, tiering aims to minimize these.

The threat to airline travel and an increase in supply pushed oil prices to seven-week lows: WTI crude dropped to its lowest level since early December.

Gold rose as China blocked travel to and from Wuhan, the city where the coronavirus outbreak originated. Gold later recovered in Europe.

Expected data include jobless claims and the Leading Index. American Airlines, Comcast, Kimberly-Clark, P&G and Intel are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,318.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 422.35
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 172.35
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 561.27
  • Nikkei down 1% to 23,795.44
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,730.50
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 27,909.12
  • Shanghai Composite down 2.8% to 2,976.53
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 41,373.12
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,087.96
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,246.13
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to -0.278%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1079
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.3 bps to 1.178%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.385%
  • Brent futures down 1.2% to $62.43/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,554.29
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.53

Market Snapshot

  • Chinese officials halted travel from Wuhan, essentially locking down the city of 11 million people as they try to stop the spread of a new SARS-like virus that’s already killed 17 and infected hundreds
  • President Donald Trump put European leaders on notice, renewing a threat to hurt the economies of transatlantic allies if they aren’t willing to compromise on a trade deal before the U.S. elections. U.K.’s Sajid Javid snubs Trump trade offer, saying EU deal comes first
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal cleared its final hurdles in Parliament, bringing the crisis that paralyzed U.K. politics since the country voted to leave the European Union almost four years ago to a close
  • Japanese exports dropped more than expected in December, with the slump dragging on for a 13th month despite recent signs of green shoots in global manufacturing. The value of shipments overseas fell 6.3% from a year earlier, weighed down by sliding exports of cars and auto parts
  • Luigi Di Maio’s resignation as leader of the biggest party in Italy’s fractious coalition has set the stage for a bruising succession battle that threatens to destabilize Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government
  • China’s securities regulator is looking at the potential to raise the cap on foreign ownership in the nation’s listed companies, according to a senior official. Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said there’s potential to lift the limit to “more than 30%” given that other countries in the region have higher caps
  • House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff presented the U.S. Senate with a dark portrait of a deeply flawed, even dangerous president as he argued that Trump should be removed from office.
  • The Swiss National Bank left the door open to a further easing of policy to rein in the “highly valued” franc, though a new currency cap isn’t in the cards for now, SNB President Thomas Jordan told Bloomberg TV
  • Norway’s central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, and stuck to its message that monetary policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future
  • Hedge funds suffered almost $98 billion in net outflows in 2019, the most in three years, as managers trailed the stock market rally, according to data compiled by eVestment

Asian equity markets weakened following the indecisive performance on Wall St where stocks finished relatively flat after a pullback from record highs, and with sentiment spooked amid ongoing coronavirus as the total confirmed cases in China rose to 571 and number of deaths at 17. ASX 200 (-0.6%) was dragged lower by heavy losses in Industrials, with better than expected jobs data dampening calls for an RBA rate cut next month. Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) was pressured by a firmer currency and disappointing trade data including a wider than expected decline in Exports, while Hang Seng (-1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-2.8%) slumped with investors reducing exposure heading into the start of the week-long mainland holiday closure and tomorrow’s shortened session in Hong Kong as focus centred on the outbreak concerns, with losses for the mainland bourse exacerbated on a break below the psychological 3000 level. Furthermore, it was reported that China shutdown public transit as well as the airport in Wuhan to contain the spread of the virus and local doctors estimated the number of cases could reach as many as 6000, in which the related jitters kept markets on edge and overshadowed the upward revision to Chinese December trade data, as well as the PBoC’s targeted medium-term lending facility announcement. Finally, 10-year JGBs were higher and tracked similar upside in T-notes with prices supported by the risk averse tone and with the BoJ present in the market today heavily concentrated on 5yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • China Refrains From Adding More Liquidity Ahead of Holiday
  • Toyota Outlook to Neg. at Moody’s on Margins, Profitability
  • Asia Gas Sinking to Bottom Under Weight of Fading China, Glut

European stocks trade relatively mixed, with bourses off worst levels [Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%] – following on from a downbeat APAC session which saw the Mainland underperform on coronavirus jitters alongside position closures ahead of its week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Sectors are mixed with defensives performing slightly better than cyclicals, and with underperformance seen in the consumer discretionary sector – heavily weighed on by Renault (-4.2%), following a downgrade at Citi. In terms of other individual movers, STMicroelectronics (+7.3%) leads the gains in the Stoxx600 following an upbeat earnings report in which it also stated that it will invest USD 1.5bln in Capex to support strategic initiatives. Sticking with upside, Novozymes (+6.4%) remains a top-gainer post-earnings in which it announced a share buyback programme. On the flip side, miners including the likes of Rio Tinto (-2.1%), Antofagasta (-2.8%) and BHP (-1.6%) bear the brunt of softer base metal prices. Broker-induced action includes Maersk (+1.1%), Compass Group (-1.6%) and Continental (-1.3%).

Top European News

  • ACS, Hochtief Tumble on Mid-East Construction Troubles
  • LVMH, Swatch Fall After China Shares Slump on Coronavirus Risk
  • STMicro Beats Estimates Marking Another Chipmaker Rebound
  • SNB Can Cut Rates But Isn’t Weighing New Franc Cap, Jordan Says

In FX, the marked G10 outperformers, as the Aussie rebounds firmly against the Greenback and Kiwi on the back of better than expected jobs data, albeit largely seasonal, to test resistance around the 200 DMA (0.6880) and reclaim 1.0400+ status respectively. To recap, December’s payroll count beat consensus almost 2-fold, and while entirely due to the part-time tally, the jobless rate dipped to 5.1% and prompted at least a couple of local banks to roll-back RBA rate cut forecasts. Meanwhile, the Yen has made a more concerted break above 110.00 vs the Buck towards 109.50 amidst renewed qualms over the spreading Chinese coronavirus and further retracement in the Renminbi through 6.9000 to 6.9330+.

NZD/GBP/EUR/CHF/SEK/NOK – All holding relatively steady vs the Usd, as the DXY continues to dither either side of 97.500 rather aimlessly awaiting further direction and/or independent impetus that may come via weekly claims and the LEI. On that note, Nzd/Usd remains retrained just below 0.6600 ahead of Q4 NZ CPI that will feed into February’s RBNZ policy meeting considerations, while Cable is still capped circa 1.3150 before Friday’s preliminary UK PMIs and following mixed data/surveys since several BoE members, including Governor Carney, revealed dovish leanings along the lines of existing MPC dissenters Saunders and Haskel. Conversely, Eur/Usd is not anticipating much from the upcoming ECB confab other than information about the strategic review, with the pair meandering under 1.1100, but keeping afloat of key support levels that kick in from 1.1070. Elsewhere, SNB chair Jordan has backed up Maechler’s insistence that being labelled as a currency fixer by the US will not impact policy, adding that NIRP and FX interventions are still necessary as the Franc remains highly valued. Moreover, rates may yet be required to be more negative, leaving Usd/Chf idling between 0.9674-93 and Eur/Chf nudging the top of a 1.0730-47 band. Turning to Scandinavia, Eur/Sek and Eur/Nok are pivoting 10.5400 and 9.9600 respectively, with the Swedish Crown deriving some support from a significant decline in jobless rates and Norwegian Krona acknowledging broadly unchanged assessments and guidance for steady depo rates from the Norges Bank.

CAD – The major laggard and still smarting after Wednesday’s dovish/cautious BoC outlook that was underscored by Governor Poloz stating that easing is now an option depending on how data unfolds and the domestic economy develops rather than a pre-emptive cut that was discussed. The Loonie has nursed some losses after sliding to circa 1.3170, though Usd/Cad remains above 1.3150 and still prone to extending gains towards upside chart targets ahead of 1.3200, such as the 100 DMA (1.3179).

In commodities, a subdued session in the commodity sphere for now– WTI and Brent front-month futures remain in the doldrums given the implications of coronavirus on sentiment, global growth and on airline fuel demand, with added pressure from the surprise build in API crude (+1.6mln vs. Exp. -1.0mln). Desks also keep in mind the recent supply-side developments that markets seem to have overlooked for now: 1) Libya’s output decline on force majeures, 2) Iraqi blockades, 3) halted Kazakh oil flows to China and 4) Shell declaring force majeure of its Nigerian Bonny Light imports. Analysts at ING calculate that the disruptions add up to around 1.4mln BPD – “which would be more than enough to shift the global market into deficit over 1H20”, ING says, adding that spare capacity is capping gains with OPEC’s +3mln BPD holding. On that note, Nigerian Oil Minister Sylva stated that the current OPEC+ cuts are sufficient to avoid oversupply, whilst stating that his preferred Brent prices stands between USD 60/bbl and the “upper 60s”. WTI Mar’20 futures dipped below the USD 56/bbl having taken out in its 200 and 100 DMAs at 57.53/bbl and 57.29/bbl respectively, whilst Brent Mar’20 hit seems to be capped by its 100 DMA at 62.82/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold retains its 1550/oz+ status with little by way of fresh fundamental catalysts to influence price action – although from a technical standpoint, the 50 and 200DMA have converged to form a golden cross around 1500/oz. Copper has meanwhile succumbed to the humdrum risk sentiment with prices finding mild intraday support at its 50 DMA ~2.7415/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 214,000, prior 204,000
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 1.75m, prior 1.77m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, prior 56.5
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 66
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. -0.2%, prior 0.0%
  • 10am: Revisions – LEI
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -6, prior -8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Some of the speaker highlights today at Davos are special addresses by German Chancellor Merkel (2.15pm CET) while prior to this DB CEO Christian Sewing also speaks on the panel topic “After Brexit: Renewing Europe’s Growth” at 10.15am CET. So plenty of potential headlines to track. Meanwhile, Italian PM Conte’s (4pm CET) address has been cancelled at the last minute following yesterday’s resignation of Luigi Di Maio – leader of the M5S party (more below). Elsewhere at the event, Mr Trump was a bit more hawkish towards Europe yesterday than he was the day before suggesting that tariffs were possible on EU autos before the election if negotiations don’t progress. Also the U.K.’s Sajid Javid said they will go ahead with a digital tax in April which may complicate a free trade agreement with the US and risk tariff reprisals but I’m sure they would have had discussions on this behind the scenes.

As I now return from Davos, while I’m sure many readers will be cynical that the leaders present will do anything about sustainability in the months and years ahead, I certainly detected that the general mood was that if they didn’t do something then it will be disadvantageous to them in terms of news-flow and financially. So business is moving to varying degrees even if it’s for self-interest. Will governments and citizens do so too? As we say in our report, difficult trade-offs lie in the near future if the globe wants instant action.

About 500km north of Davos the ECB will be holding their latest policy meeting today. No surprises are expected and our economists, in their preview which you can find here, concluded that they expect the ECB to maintain that an accommodative policy stance remains appropriate. They also expect the Council to conclude that the balance of risks remain tilted to the downside but continue to acknowledge that the risks have become less prominent with an upgrade to neutral being the main upside scenario. The main interest will likely lie with the Strategic Review which may also be announced today and ultimately remains uncertain still, however the potential for market volatility can be counter-balanced by a strong commitment to the current stance in any case.

Just on this, Bloomberg yesterday reported that the Strategy Review could be broken into two, one part will deal with inflation, the policy making framework and policy tools and the other with “financial stability, climate and communications”. This does not necessarily mean the ECB conservatives already have the upper hand and “climate” — potentially requiring large-scale policy coordination — has been relegated. We suspect the differentiation between the two parts of the Strategic Review reflects legal issues and political sensitivities. Price stability is the ECB’s primary goal. If the ECB is to move more into the area of climate etc., it needs to do this with the proper legal and political authority (that is, with Treaty change). This is consistent with the conclusions of DB’s December report on the Strategy Review that decisions made outside Frankfurt will be more important than decisions made inside Frankfurt.

All that to look forward to at 1.45pm CET. Yesterday saw US equities pare back stronger gains from earlier in the session, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing up +0.03% and +0.14% respectively. The pullback happened as news came through from China that public transport would be suspended in Wuhan, the city where the coronavirus outbreak began, with outbound flights and trains coming to a halt. It comes amidst concerns that the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, which involves large amounts of people travelling, could accelerate the spread of the virus. The latest on the virus is that there have now been 571 confirmed cases with the death toll standing at 17 as January 22 (9 as on January 21). Elsewhere, Macau has cancelled all Lunar New Year festivities while Hong Kong has halted high-speed rail ticket sales to Wuhan (inbound from Wuhan already halted) – a city of 11 million people.

Risk aversion has returned to Asian markets this morning due to renewed concerns about the virus with Chinese bourses leading the declines. The CSI (-3.02%; the largest decline since May 2019), Shanghai Comp (-2.67%; the largest decline since July 2019) and Shenzhen Comp (-3.42%) are all down c. 3%. It should be noted that today is the last trading day for Chinese bourses before the week long Lunar New Year holiday starts. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.96% ), Hang Seng (-2.04% ) and Kospi (-0.99%) are also down. As for Fx, the onshore Chinese yuan is down -0.33%% to 6.9274. Elsewhere the Australian dollar is up +0.26% as investors pared their bets on a rate cut by the RBA on better than expected jobs data. Futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.21% and yields on 10y USTs are -2.6bps while in commodities crude oil prices are down a further c. -2% after an even bigger fall yesterday (more below).

Back to the equity moves yesterday, and it was the tech sector that led the way in the US, helped in part by IBM’s latest earnings report released the night before. Of particular note was a +4.09% gain for Tesla which saw the car manufacturer pass the $100bn market cap mark and which means it now only trails Toyota in terms of the world’s most valuable auto makers. A fairly staggering rise from the $32bn market cap back in June and a huge +218% move.

Elsewhere, bond markets have been fairly muted for the last 24 hours. Indeed 10y Treasuries continue to hover around 1.770% (-0.5bps) with the move index of Treasury volatility hovering around 8-month lows. In Europe yields were around 1bp lower while the STOXX 600 closed -0.08%. The FTSE MIB (-0.58%) did struggle however following Di Maio’s resignation as leader of the Five Star Movement. The regional elections in Italy this weekend will be the next focal point for Italian political risk, though the spread of BTPs over bunds actually tightened by -1.1bps by the close yesterday. Meanwhile, in commodities it was a rough day for oil where Brent and WTI declined -2.14% and -2.81% respectively on supply issues and in reaction to the virus news in China which could be seen as hurting demand.

Before we get to yesterday’s data and the day ahead, last week we published the latest edition of The House View ‘Gaining Speed’ (link here) and now we’ve released an 11 minute podcast version of the report with Marion and Luke, both on my team. You can find it at https://www.dbresearch.com/podzept/ or on the usual podcast providers. Instructions in the link. ***

As for the data yesterday, there was some interest in the CBI survey data in the UK. Both the orders data and optimism data improved. Trends total orders improved 6pts to -22 (vs. -25 expected) while business optimism improved an eye-opening 67pts to 23 (vs. -20 expected) – the highest level since 2014. A word of caution though that the data is notoriously volatile and shouldn’t really be seen in isolation. Data on the whole since the election has been weak to mixed with the big weakness coming in retail sales and the PMIs in particular so it’s unlikely that yesterday’s data will move the dial for the BoE unless they heavily weight survey data versus hard data. Sterling bounced back above $1.31 post the data while the market is pricing in around 13bps of cuts for the January meeting next week.

Finally in the US the December existing home sales print of +3.6% mom bettered expectations for +1.5%. That was actually the highest reading since February 2018 also, underscoring the positive trend in home sales.

Looking at the day ahead, the main focus today is likely to be on the ECB meeting. In terms of data we have the January consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area while in the US we’ve got claims, December leading index and January Kansas Fed manufacturing activity index all due. Away from that the Davos panels will continue, while in Washington the US-China economic and security review commission is due to hold a hearing, mandated by Congress to report annually on national security implications. Finally, earnings highlights include Intel and Proctor & Gamble.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 84.23 POINTS OR 2.75%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 431.92 POINTS OR 1.52%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 235.91 POINTS OR 0.98%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9333 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9333 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9275 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

 CHINA
The Coronavirus is already slashing 2002 GDP growth in China. A widespread slowdown in all provinces persists
(zerohedge)

China Slashes 2020 GDP Growth For Provinces As Widespread Slowdown Persists

With phase-one talks signed last week, China’s GDP growth in 2019 plunged to a 29-year low amid massive credit stimulus that has widely been ineffective to boost growth but has somewhat stabilized the economy.

China’s largest utility company State Grid has warned that the rate of economic growth in the country is expected to slide to 4% in the next four years.

There was even a report on Tuesday showing China has already blamed the 2020 economic slowdown on the coronavirus epidemic that has already killed nine with at least 440 people infected in the country and spreading across the region, along with a new case in the U.S. 

The Communist Party of China has been quick to blame the slowdown on external factors, such as the trade war and other protectionist policies of President Trump, rather than their failures of amassing more than $40 trillion of debt, nearly 304% of GDP.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Coronavirus cases have been found in other places out of Wuhan, Hubei Province, indicating the epidemic is expanding. Concerns are mounting. It is inevitable that people will cut their trips during Spring Festival and holiday consumption will be hit.

Now we’re starting to get more local data, on a provincial level, that shows many regions and municipalities have cut their 2020 growth targets over the prior year, reported Reuters.

About 22 provinces have slashed growth targets this year, including Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hainan, and Fujian.

Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong have all cut their target of 6.5% to 6% growth to about 6% in 2020, in line with the national goal of 6%.

Local government data shows at least 11 provinces have missed their 2019 growth targets and are expected to underperform this year.

The northeastern province of Heilongjiang will range around 5% growth for this year, with the Tibet Autonomous Region to see about 9%.

Policy sources within China told Reuters that provinces would ramp up infrastructure spending to offset the slowdown.

“Much of the national slowdown last year was driven by exports which will have weighed on the south and east more,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China Economist at Capital Economics, in an email to Reuters.

China’s GDP data is often skewed – and for more color on the country’s economic activity — Fathom Consulting’s China Momentum Indicator 3.0 (CMI 3.0) shows GDP growth well under 6% and stagnating.

END
CHINA
China is quarantining off two major cities and planning on another two.  Some have restricted travel
(zerohedge)

China Quarantines Two More Cities As Experts Warn It’s Too Late To Stop The Virus

Update (0700ET): Beijing is reportedly planning to quarantine a third city in Hubei Province, where the coronavirus outbreak originated, while a fourth city in the province is planning to shut down train travel.

Media reports claim that Chibi, a city with half a million Chinese, will be quarantined like Wuhan and Huanggang. Meanwhile, Ezhou, a city with 1 million people in Hubei, is seeing some transportation shut down.

Meanwhile, officials in Beijing have joined several other Chinese cities in cancelling Chinese New Year celebrations.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

locks down more cities due to . Huanggang (7.5mln pop.) will suspend public bus, railway from midnight (11a ET). Internet cafes, movie theaters, tourist sites, entertainment venues temporarily closed. Ezhou (1mln pop.) said it shut train stations.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

Beijing joins Wuhan, Zhejiang, Macau in canceling celebrations. capital’s culture & tourism bureau says all public gathering activities, incl. traditional temple fairs, are off. (Holiday is normally major consumer spending time. ) @TheDomino

Conflicting report are alternatively claiming that Ezhou and Chibi will be the third Chinese city to face a quarantine. Does that mean officials are planning to quarantine the entire province?

BNO News

@BNONews

BREAKING: Chinese officials say a 3rd city, Chibi with a population of nearly half a million, will be put on lockdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus

Healthwire@HealthwireMedia

BREAKING: City of Ezhou becomes the third to be put under lockdown to contain the @guardianhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/23/coronavirus-panic-spreads-in-china-with-three-cities-in-lockdown?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet 

Coronavirus: Chinese cities in lockdown in effort to contain virus

Residents in Wuhan, Ezhou and Huanggang hoard supplies and isolate themselves at home

theguardian.com

There have also been reports about a third patient being identified in St. Petersburg, while other cities, including Hong Kong, stock up on facemask supplies.

* * *

As cases of the new coronavirus popped up around the globe, Chinese health officials managed to assuage the worries of the public, and the market, by insisting that the new, deadly coronavirus that emerged late last month in Wuhan had been ‘contained’ and that the outbreak would swiftly die down.

Despite imposing some draconian travel bans, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this isn’t going to happen. Even after quarantining an entire city of 11 million people – Wuhan is the 7th largest city in China and larger than any US city – experts are warning that it’s too late: The cat is already out of the bag.

But that won’t stop Beijing from trying: Now that Wuhan has been effectively cut off, Chinese officials announced another city-wide quarantine on Thursday: Huanggang city, which is in Hubei province and situated close to Wuhan, will suspend outbound train and bus services, as well as all bus services within the city effective Friday. All public places, including movie theaters, have been ordered to close until further notice, practically guaranteeing that the quarantine will take a bite out of GDP. Though even after authorities cut off all flights, Reuters reports that a few airlines were still running flights out of Wuhan.

As the SCMP pointed out, Wuhan, the city at the center of the outbreak, is five times larger than London.

The decision comes as more than 600 cases of the virus have now been confirmed. The death toll has been steady since yesterday at 17, as the WHO ponders whether to label the outbreak as a global pandemic risk.

Chinese state broadcasters shared images of Wuhan’s ghostly transport hubs, including the Hankou rail station, with all gates barred or blocked. Highway toll booths were shutting down as guards patrolled major highways. Inside the city, residents crowded into hospitals and rushed to buy up essential supplies from supermarkets and gas stations.

Interestingly, at least one Western journalist is reporting from Wuhan. We imagine Beijing allowed ABC access to the city to try and calm the growing panic in the West.

ABC News

@ABC

.@ABC News’ @BobWoodruff travels to Wuhan, China, the center of the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed 17 people, and gives an inside look on how airports and travelers are trying to prevent the virus from spreading. https://abcn.ws/36epjEx

Embedded video

As more barriers rise, one well-known public health expert known for his work on the SARS outbreak warned that the quarantines likely wouldn’t be enough to stop the virus from becoming a global pandemic, according to the New York Times.

Dr. Guan Yi, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong who visited Wuhan earlier this week, warned there was a potential for the virus to spread rapidly despite the controls put in place Thursday morning.

“We have a chance to have a pandemic outbreak,” said Dr. Guan, who was part of the team that identified the coronavirus that caused the deadly SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003. SARS infected more than 8,000 people and killed nearly 800.

Dr. Guan also told Caixin, an influential Chinese magazine known for investigative reports, that he had traveled to Wuhan earlier in the week hoping to help track the virus’s animal source and control the epidemic. But he left, he said, feeling “powerless, very angry.”

Dr. W. Ian Lipkin, an epidemiologist at Columbia University who advised the Chinese government and the World Health Organization during the SARS outbreak, said that infected people outside Wuhan would continue to spread the disease.

“The horse is already out of the barn,” he said.

 

Another expert warned that there could already be as many as 4,000 cases of coronavirus in Wuhan, meaning that the vast majority of infections likely haven’t yet been reported.

Meanwhile, regulators around the world are scrambling to cut off flights from Wuhan (even though Beijing has supposedly cut off all rail and plane travel out of the city): The Philippines is the latest country to cut off flights from the city. The country’s Civil Aeronautics Board added that flights from elsewhere in China would be placed under ‘strict monitoring’, according to CNN Philippines. Manila, the Philippines’ crowded capital city, has started handing out 100,000 face masks.

The director of the country’s Civil Aeronautics Board explained that, even though Beijing is quarantining entire cities, it’s up to the Philippines to take their own steps to curb the outbreak.

“When you look at the seriousness of the outbreak, Wuhan should be the focus of attention,” CAB Executive Director Carmelo Arcilla told reporters.

“Even if they lift it, we have to look at our side first and make our own assessment. So our assessment is different from theirs, I mean, even their decision is different from ours,” Arcilla said.

Experts have warned that quarantining an entire city of 11 million would be virtually impossible. But the nabobs in Beijing refuse to be deterred: Videos circulating on social media show Chinese police setting up barricades across roads leading out of the city. Anybody in Wuhan who had New Year’s travel plans should probably cancel them and ask for a refund.

CNW@ConflictsW

Roads leading to and from Wuhan have now been blocked as the city has been placed in quarantine to try and stop the spread of the coronavirus

Embedded video

After a suspected case of coronavirus was discovered in Macau yesterday, officials in the special autonomous region warned that they might close all casinos in the territory, a move that would spoil the vacation plans of millions of Chinese planning to travel to Macau for the Chinese New Year. A second case was reportedly discovered on Thursday.

Across the world, a mildly risk-off mood is once again dominating markets. That means US stocks are one outbreak headline away from deeper declines.

END

CHINA

 

China plans on scraping Lunar celebrations as the outbreak intensifies

(zerohedge)

“It’s Like Cancelling Christmas” – Beijing Scraps Lunar New Year Festivities Amid Virus Outbreak

The ‘Year of the Rat’ is starting not with a bang, but with a whimper. Thanks to the rapid spread of a deadly coronavirus that has confounded China’s public health officials and triggered massive quarantine operations intended to seal off at least three cities from the rest of the country (and world), Beijing has joined three other Chinese cities in cancelling Lunar New Year celebrations.

CNBC’s Eunice Yoon reports that all public gatherings and activities have been cancelled, citing officials from Beijing’s tourism bureau.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

Beijing joins Wuhan, Zhejiang, Macau in canceling celebrations. capital’s culture & tourism bureau says all public gathering activities, incl. traditional temple fairs, are off. (Holiday is normally major consumer spending time. ) @TheDomino

Yoon tweeted that she was surprised when Wuhan cancelled its New Year’s festivities, even though it’s the epicenter of the virus. The fact that Beijing has followed suit is nothing short of extraordinary, and serves to underscore just how out-of-hand things have gotten with this virus.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

When Wuhan canceled festivities I thought that was like the West cancelling Christmas. Didn’t think Beijing would follow suit. https://twitter.com/meifongwriter/status/1220319432372781056 

Mei Fong/ 方凤美

@meifongwriter

Wow this is like the Western world cancelling Christmas. For many migrant workers this is their ONLY holiday off all year, and the only time they see their families back in distant villages. https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1220312477893742592 

China’s state railway operator is offering full refunds to any Chinese impacted by cancellations.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

State Railway Group, country’s train operator, says it is now offering full refunds for all trip cancellations nationwide 🚂. is the biggest travel period as Chinese go home for the traditional holiday. But making travelers nervous.😬

Film industry executives have postponed the release of all seven Chinese films that were set to debut during the New Year holiday.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

All 7 films set to release during postpone due to scare. Original times below:

Jan 25: Boonie Bears: The Wild Life

Jan 25: Detective Chinatown 3

Jan 25: Leap

Jan 25: Legend of Deification

Jan 25: Lost in Russia

Jan 25: The Rescue

Jan 25: Vanguard

Meanwhile, Beijing is tightening its quarantine restrictions for Wuhan and the other affected cities.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

Tighter lockdown for Wuhan. Transport Ministry announced: suspension of road and water routes to Wuhan, of inter-provincial and inter-city car-hiring, bus services to Wuhan, strict control of vehicles, ships departing Wuhan, strict checks, control for highways, waterways

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

aviation authority calls on airlines to reduce Wuhan flights. Forbids price gouging. Says 566 flights were scheduled to/from Wuhan Jan23 & as of 11:30am, 288 cancelled. Reminds foreign, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan airlines with Wuhan flights to adjust. http://www.caac.gov.cn/XWZX/MHYW/202001/t20200123_200566.html 

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

locks down more cities due to . Huanggang (7.5mln pop.) will suspend public bus, railway from midnight (11a ET). Internet cafes, movie theaters, tourist sites, entertainment venues temporarily closed. Ezhou (1mln pop.) said it shut train stations.

Initially, many declined to speculate about the impact of the coronavirus on global GDP. But the quarantines and cancellations have virtually guaranteed that China’s already-slowing economic growth is about to take another hit.

Analysts at SocGen write “Markets have become concerned about the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan. Clearly, there is still considerable uncertainty as to how the situation will evolve. However, the SARS epidemic in 2003, which lasted for nine months and infected over 5,000 people in China, should be a useful reference for the potential economic impact this time. Drawing from the SARS lesson, if the situation has failed to stabilise by March, 1Q GDP growth will likely fall below 6%, compared with our current forecast of 6.1%. Undoubtedly, consumption and tourism-related sectors would be most affected.”

Elsewhere, the bar for coronavirus-related panic has apparently been set pretty low: The Global Times tweeted that the Chinese embassy in France had called for help after one official complained on social media about having a fever and cough after entering France from China.

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsein Loong told reporters that the coronavirus has clearly spread faster than officials in Beijing expected. And with US stocks set to open in the red, it’s clear investors are beginning to worry about the possibility of a global pandemic.

Of course, before anybody gets too bent out of shape about the cancellations, there’s reason to take the news with a grain of salt: Despite plans to shut down all plane traffic in and out of Wuhan, flight tracker FlightAware shows that dozens of flights are scheduled for Thursday in spite of the ban. Earlier media reports claimed that “some” flights would still be taking off.

Are you still confident that Beijing has this under control?

END
CHINA
The Coronavirus seems to have the same genetic sequence in snakes and rats and that is  it passed to humans  through bites.  Some snakes have been consumed by humans and that is how it passed.
(zerohedge)

Snakes, Bats, Badgers & Rats: Scientists Suspect New Coronavirus Originated In Animals

 

As the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases nears 650, scientists inside and outside China have speculated that the Wuhan coronavirus was first passed to humans via snakes, badgers, bats or rats.

Some preliminary research that has been picked up by the Western press, including CNN, claims the virus may have been passed to humans by snakes, with the Chinese krait and the Chinese cobra the primary suspects. The many-banded krait, also known as the Taiwanese krait, and the Chinese krait, is a highly venomous species that dwells across central and southern China, and across Southeast Asia more broadly.

It’s also apparently among the species of snakes that are sometimes consumed by humans.

Moreover, scientists have now studied the genetic code of the virus using samples gleaned from patients. Using microscopes and photographs, they determined that the pathogen responsible for this pandemic has been confirmed to be in the same family of viruses that caused SARS and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV) – the coronavirus family. Viruses in this family have killed hundreds of people across Asia in the past 17 years. Though it hasn’t yet ruled on whether the virus is a global pandemic, the WHO has an official name for the new coronavirus: 2019-nCoV.

And most of those viruses have been traced back to animals in a process known as ‘Zoonotic transmission’. This happens when viruses undergo a series of mutations while inside their animal hosts, allowing them to infect humans, and then travel from person to person.

Some ‘Zoonotic’ viruses, like AIDS, are relatively difficult to transmit. Others, like the coronaviruses, are known for spreading easily through the air – though airborne transmission of 2019-nCoV has yet to be confirmed.

Snakes aren’t the only suspects. A team of scientists who recently published a paper in the China Science Bulletin hypothesized that the virus may have been transmitted to humans via bats. After this revelation, the Daily Star, a British tabloid, claimed that the “unknown link” between bats and humans may have been the Chinese delicacy ‘bat soup’.

As evidence, the tabloid reported that footage of Wuhan residents eating the strange soup had emerged on social media over the past week. In on clip, a girl can be seen eating a bat with a pair of chopsticks during a dinner with friends.

It’s unclear exactly how reliable this is, but it’s worth mentioning that a grocery store identified as the source of the virus sold many strange animal products, including snakes and possibly bats.

It’s also possible that the virus may have originated in the bats before being transferred to snakes, and then on to humans. A reading of the protein codes favored by the new coronavirus found that it was similar to viruses found in birds, snakes, marmots, hedgehogs, manis, bats and humans. Snakes often hunt for bats in the wild, and it’s possible that a snake sold in the local seafood market in Wuhan had acquired the virus from its prey, before passing it on to a hungry human.

But those aren’t the only theories. According to ReutersChinese government medical adviser Zhong Nanshan has also identified badgers and rats as possible culprits.

Symptoms of the pneumonia-like illness include fever, cough and difficulty breathing. So far, there is no vaccine.

Regardless of where it came from, it’s becoming increasingly clear that it will be impossible for Chinese health authorities to stop its spread, especially as millions of Chinese are determined to travel during the Lunar New Year holiday.

Infographic: Chinese New Year Travelers Take to the Skies | StatistaYou will find more infographics at Statista

It’s the largest regular human migration, dwarfing the Haff in the number of people who travel every year.

Infographic: The World's Largest Human Migration Is About To Begin | StatistaYou will find more infographics at Statista

Despite China’s attempts to literally seal off the biggest cities in the province where the Wuhan virus was first detected, Global health authorities fear the rate of transmission will explode as millions of Chinese travel at home and abroad during the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which is set to begin on Saturday.

end
CHINA/THIS AFTERNOON//THE LATEST

China On Edge Of Chaos: “7 Cities, 23 Million People Under Quarantine”

Summary:

  • 7 Chinese cities, around 23 million people, effectively under quarantine
  • Multiple cases across the world – from Scotland to Singapore and USA
  • 634 Infected (according to Chinese officials), 647 including cases outside China.
  • 18 Dead (following 1st death outside Wuhan)
  • WHO says “not the time to declare a global health emergency”

“Make no mistake: This is an emergency in China,” Tedros said. “But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one.”

 

*  *  *

Update (1325ET): The World Health Organization, after a second day of meetings, have decided AGAINST declaring an international virus alarm. The panel was reportedly split on the decision and may revise the decision but for now states that“now is not the time” to declare an emergency.

“Make no mistake: This is an emergency in China,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. “But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one.”

*  *  *

Update (1300ET): CNBC’s Eunice Yoon just provided a shocking update to the status of the deadly virus in China:

“7 cities and 23 million people are effectively under quarantine.”

The cities under effective martial law – with all travel in, around, and out halted – are Wuhan, Huanggang, Zhijiang, Ezhou, Qianjiang, Chibi, and Xiantao.

That is more people quarantined than the population of Florida (21.6m).

Outside of China, cases keep appearing (map does not include recent cases in Scotland and Ireland):

*  *  *

Update (1150ET): If you haven’t cancelled those tickets to Wuhan yet, you might want to hold off: The State Department has just reverted its safety warning on travel to China to “exercise caution” from “reconsider your travel plans”.

Clearly, somebody in the Chinese government complained, and with US stocks deep in the red, it seems the Trump Administration was perceptive.

After all, the point is to convince the public not to panic.

* * *

Update (1130ET)As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases nears 650 (the latest count put the number at 647), the US State Department has decided to reassure Americans that they are ‘safe’ from the virus.

China has nearly competed its quarantine of four cities in Hubei, even as experts warn it won’t be enough. As millions prepared to travel, George Gao Fu, head of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, warned the Chinese public to stay home during the holiday season, warning that this was a “crucial time” to stop the virus.

With 444 confirmed cases, Wuhan remains the epicenter of the epidemic. Reports about another virus-related death are circulating on social media, along with a terrifying video of first-responders in full-body gear treating an individual who had seemingly collapsed in the middle of the road.

That’s not exactly reassuring.

Meanwhile, in Wuhan, shortages of medical supplies and facemasks are already prompting hospitals, universities and charities to reach out to the surrounding area for donations.

But sure – everything is under control.

* * *

Update (1045ET): Just in case you had plans to celebrate LNY at a fish market in Wuhan, the US government has published a travel warning advising Americans to ‘reconsider traveling to China’ amid the latest viral outbreak.

  • U.S. URGES TRAVELERS TO RECONSIDER CHINA VISITS DUE TO VIRUS

Even if you made it to Wuhan at this point, one might encounter difficulties trying to enter the city, especially as a foreigner.

* * *

Update (0950ET): The BBC is reporting that a suspected case of coronavirus has been detected in Scotland.

Note: These are only suspected cases – not yet confirmed.

If confirmed, this would be the first case of the virus in the UK, and would indicate another intrusion into the developed world, this time in Europe.

The UK Health Secretary said Friday morning that the coronavirus is “increasingly likely” to hit Britain, the Times of Londonreports.

According to CNN, the number of coronavirus cases confirmed around the world has climbed to 622 (once again, the graphic below is ever-so-slightly out of date):

And the scramble for facemasks continues, with Hong Kong stores swiftly running out of stock, and black-market sellers engaging in widespread gouging of terrified customers.

* * *

Update (0935ET): India’s foreign office said Thursday that an Indian nurse in Saudi Arabia has been diagnosed with the Wuhan coronavirus.

“About 100 Indian nurses mostly from Kerala working at Al-Hayat hospital have been tested and none except one nurse was found infected by Corona virus,” tweeted Vellamvelly Muraleedharan, Indian Minister of State for External Affairs, on Thursday.

Cases have also been reported in Russia, Hong Kong and Macau, in addition to all of the countries listed below:

Saudi Arabia’s economy depends on millions of migrant workers, a group that includes many Indians.

* * *

Update (0841ET): Beijing says the number of confirmed Wuhan cases in China has climbed to 634, bringing the global total to 641.

Here’s a breakdown of cases by region (though it might be slightly out of date, it gets the point across):

In keeping with China’s insistence that the Wuhan virus is far less deadly than the 2003 SARS outbreak, the SCMP reports that almost half of the 17 people who have succumbed to the virus so far were aged 80 or older, and most of them had pre-existing health conditions. All of those who died, 13 men and four women so far, were from the central province of Hubei, and were treated in hospitals in its capital, Wuhan, epicenter of the outbreak. Chinese authorities have quarantined most of the biggest sources in the province.

Here’s some more information on the victims, including the types of illnesses they faced:

At least nine of those who died had pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, coronary artery disease and Parkinson’s disease. Eight were in their eighties, two in their seventies, five in their sixties and one man was in his fifties. The youngest woman was 48 and had a pre-existing condition.

One 89-year-old man, surnamed Chen, had a history of high blood pressure, diabetes, coronary heart disease and other conditions. He began experiencing symptoms on January 13, including difficulty breathing but not fever. Five days later, he was admitted to the Wuhan Union Hospital with severe breathing difficulties, and tested positive for pneumonia. He died the following evening.

The 48-year-old woman, surnamed Yin, had suffered from diabetes and had also had a stroke. She first had a fever, aches and pains on December 10 and her condition slowly deteriorated. She was treated at two hospitals in Wuhan before she died on Monday.

Officials in Beijing have been cautious about making definitive statements about the origins and characteristics of the disease, including its incubation period, saying more investigation was needed.

“There’s still a need for further study of the virus over time,” said Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, at a press briefing on Wednesday.

“As for the impact on younger people, according to current epidemiology and what we know right now, they really aren’t susceptible,” he said.

Patients as young as 15 have been infected with the pneumonia-like virus, according to Wuhan health officials. There are now more than 570 confirmed cases, including some reported in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, the United States, Japan, South Korea and Thailand.

 

* * *

Update (0800ET): CNA, an English-language news website based across Asia, has just reported that Singapore has confirmed the first case of the Wuhan coronavirus.

In a media briefing on Thursday evening, the Ministry of Health said the carrier is a 66-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan. The man arrived in Singapore with his family on Jan. 20 after flying in from Guangzhou via China Southern. The man reported having a soar throat on the flight, but no fever.

Earlier, St. Petersburg reportedly confirmed its third case of the Wuhan virus.

The man traveled to Singapore General on Wednesday, and was immediately placed in isolation. He tested positive for the virus at 6 pm local time on Thursday. Singaporean authorities have already begun a contact tree, and are isolating all those with whom the suspect had contact.

The diagnosis is just the latest indication that, even as more Chinese cities cancel LNY celebrations, too many Chinese, including Chinese from Wuhan, have already traveled abroad. And the week-long holiday doesn’t even start until Saturday.

This live NYT map of confirmed Wuhan cases appears to be out-of-date, despite having just been updated.

The number of confirmed cases is closer to 600. Still, it gets the point across.

* * *

Update (0700ET): Beijing is reportedly planning to quarantine a third city in Hubei Province, where the coronavirus outbreak originated, while a fourth city in the province is planning to shut down train travel.

Media reports claim that Chibi, a city with half a million Chinese, will be quarantined like Wuhan and Huanggang. Meanwhile, Ezhou, a city with 1 million people in Hubei, is seeing some transportation shut down.

Meanwhile, officials in Beijing have joined several other Chinese cities in cancelling Chinese New Year celebrations.

Conflicting report are alternatively claiming that Ezhou and Chibi will be the third Chinese city to face a quarantine. Does that mean officials are planning to quarantine the entire province?

There have also been reports about a third patient being identified in St. Petersburg, while other cities, including Hong Kong, stock up on facemask supplies.

* * *

As cases of the new coronavirus popped up around the globe, Chinese health officials managed to assuage the worries of the public, and the market, by insisting that the new, deadly coronavirus that emerged late last month in Wuhan had been ‘contained’ and that the outbreak would swiftly die down.

Despite imposing some draconian travel bans, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this isn’t going to happen. Even after quarantining an entire city of 11 million people – Wuhan is the 7th largest city in China and larger than any US city – experts are warning that it’s too late: The cat is already out of the bag.

But that won’t stop Beijing from trying: Now that Wuhan has been effectively cut off, Chinese officials announced another city-wide quarantine on Thursday: Huanggang city, which is in Hubei province and situated close to Wuhan, will suspend outbound train and bus services, as well as all bus services within the city effective Friday. All public places, including movie theaters, have been ordered to close until further notice, practically guaranteeing that the quarantine will take a bite out of GDP. Though even after authorities cut off all flights, Reuters reports that a few airlines were still running flights out of Wuhan.

As the SCMP pointed out, Wuhan, the city at the center of the outbreak,

CHINA/AUTO SALES
China’s Minister of Industry now claims the country is about to face a big downward pressure this year in auto sales.
(zerohedge)

Chinese Auto Sales To Face “Big Downward Pressure” In 2020

China’s Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, had some bad news for the Chinese auto industry on Monday.

Wei says that the industry still faces “big downward pressure” and he predicted sales of just 25 million units for the year, according to Bloomberg.

Recall, sales for 2019 totaled 25.769 million units. Sales of just 25 million units would mark a third straight year of declines for the world’s largest auto market, should Wei’s prediction come to fruition.

 

Source: Marklines 2019 China Auto Data

The MIIT also said it would further study and review its NEV vehicle subsidies. Beijing backing away from these subsidies caused NEV sales to taper off toward the end of 2019, sullying what was an otherwise consistent silver lining for the country, even amidst the overall recession in autos.

We noted in December that NEV sales plunged 42% in November when Beijing backed away.

China has said it is going to “maintain support” for NEVs, without getting into too much detail. Miao also said he’s confident that the country will ensure “stable industrial production in 2020” while phasing out “zombie firms”. 

As we noted days ago, passenger car vehicle sales in China fell yet again in December, plunging 3.6% to 2.17 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

This marks the 18th drop in the past 19 months for the country, which feels to be single-handedly spearheading a global recession in the industry. For the full year, sales in China declined 7.5%, marking the second straight annual decline. 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/LEBANON/ISRAEL

Lebanon has a new IRGC Quds commander Force #2 and he is the mastermind behind their missile program. Israel is very worried that the government is now under Hezbollah control

(zerohedge)

New IRGC Quds Force #2 Is Iran’s ‘Missile Mastermind’ In Lebanon

Lebanon has a new Hezbollah-dominated and backed government after three months of protests have gripped the country, which no doubt has raised alarm for both Israel and the United States, especially given West-backed political parties were largely sidelined in the forming of Michel Aoun’s new handpicked cabinet, especially when it comes to Hezbollah’s top candidate for prime minister, newly sworn in (as of Tuesday) Hassan Diab.

To make matters worse for Tel Aviv, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Quds Force has now named a #2 under Gen. Esmail Qaani — who himself had served as now slain Soleimani’s deputy for more than a decade. The new Quds deputy commander alongside top Quds chief Qaani is Mohammed Hejazi, according to The Jerusalem Post, who crucially is considered a longtime “central figure in Iran’s operations in Lebanon”.

 

Brigadier General Mohammad Hejazi, appointed as Acting Commander of Quds Force on January 20. Image via Radio Farda/Tasnim

Last August a statement by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) named Hejazi as among three top IRGC commanders working to fast establish Hezbollah missile factories which can produce precision guided missiles, in preparation for the next major conflict with the Jewish state.

Israeli media reports suggest that before entering the Quds force, which is the elite covert foreign arm of the IRGC, Mohammed Hejazi was a key enforcer helping Tehran put down protests, such as the 2009 presidential election mass demonstrations.

Israel Defense Forces

@IDF

These 3 Iranian commanders are working on a secret¹ project with Hezbollah to manufacture precision guided missiles to attack Israel.

¹not so secret anymore.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

According to a profile in The Jerusalem Post, his career outside the country has been focused in bolstering Hezbollah’s weapons capabilities inside Lebanon:

He faded from public view in 2014, and seems to have been in Lebanon during that time, helping Hezbollah stockpile and improve its estimated 150,000 missiles. Al-Ain media reports that he was Hezbollah’s key man linking them to the IRGC. He likely grew into this role after the death of Imad Mughniyeh who was assassinated in 2008.

He helped supply arms to Hezbollah and help it with its precision guided missile programs. These programs have been spotlighted as a key threat to the region and Israel. Hezbollah wants to create local manufacturing bases for the precision guidance that would make its arsenal more dangerous. In March 2019 Israel said Hezbollah was seeking to set up an advanced missile plant in the Beka’a valley.

The US administration has lately sought to pressure the Lebanese government into ensuring no domestic missile manufacturing is established under the aegis of Hezbollah

 

Washington has long seen the Shia paramilitary group  which also has seats in parliament and a huge following in the country — as but a foreign arm of Iran and the Ayatollah; however, many Lebanese and people across the region see Hezbollah as a legitimate homegrown ‘resistance’ movement giving the historically oppressed Shia of south Lebanon a political voice.

Starting last August into September,  Israel dramatically stepped up its so-called anti-Iranian expansion campaign inside Lebanon which involved a series of attacks and assassination attempts in south Beirut and the Lebanese countryside using IDF drones.

Tel Aviv officials have repeatedly warned that Hezbollah missile manufacturing plants are a ‘red line’ against which the Israeli military would act.

 

END

IRAN/USA

 

USA envoy promises that the new Soleimani replacement will face the same fate as he did if he harms one USA citizen

(zerohedge)

Soleimani’s Replacement Faces Same Fate If He Attacks Americans: US Top Iran Envoy

A top White House and State Department special envoy for Iran has warned Soleimani’s successor that he’ll face the same fate as the slain IRGC Quds Force commander if he begins ordering attacks on Americans.

US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook told the the Arabic-language daily Asharq al-Awsat: “If (Esmail) Ghaani follows the same path of killing Americans then he will meet the same fate,” according to Reuters. For over two decades Esmail Ghaani served as Soleimani’s deputy chief before being named to chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) foreign arm which oversees all covert operations and military action abroad.

 

Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani.Image source: AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA)

Hook gave the interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Summit in Davos while accompanying Trump. He said of the president that he has long had a clear policy “that any attack on Americans or American interests would be met with a decisive response.”

“This isn’t a new threat. The president has always said that he will always respond decisively to protect American interests,” Hook said. “I think the Iranian regime understands now that they cannot attack America and get away with it.”

Ghaani, meanwhile recently vowed he would “continue in this luminous path” taken by Soleimani following threats by leaders in Tehran that “severe” vengeance will continue, which by many indicators has not concluded after the Jan.8 ballistic missile ‘response’ strike on US positions in Iraq.

 

Special Envoy for Iran Brian Hook. Image source: U.S. State Department

Despite close Soleimani aid, friend and confidant Esmail Ghaani quickly taking over the Quds force, which occurred the morning after the drone strike at Baghdad airport, Hook insisted in the interview that is death will still “create a vacuum that the [Iranian] regime will not be able to fill,” in terms of leadership.

According to the top US Iran envoy, the newly appointed successor will not be able to influence and gather “Iran’s agents in the region” at the level of Soleimani.

end

RUSSIA/USA/SYRIA

 

This is rather scary!! USA troops confront Russian troops seeking the oil fields.  Quite a dangerous standoff

(zerohedge)

US Troops Seen Blocking Russians From Syrian Oilfields In Series Of Dangerous Standoffs

Yet another dangerous incident has played out between American and Russian forces operating in Syria in what appears a series of standoffs near key oil installations since Saturday. “This is the third incident that occurred within a week,” one local reporter told VOA in an alarming report.

 

Image source: journalist Mohammed Hassan 

Days ago we reported on the first incident involving a US convoy blocking a Russian convoy on a highway near the town of Rmelan, after the Americans were apparently concerned the Russians were going to enter an oil field, which the US administration says it has “secured”.

But now Voice of America reports three total incidents, with the most recent ones happening Tuesday and Wednesday in al-Hasakah province, as newly detailed by the opposition outlet Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

 

 

Image source: journalist Mohammed Hassan 

All of the incidents involved US forces blocking Russian military vehicles and forcing them to turn around as they neared sensitive oil installations held by the US-backed Kurdish SDF and American special forces in Syria’s northeast.

One eyewitness reporter on the ground described the following:

The incident on Tuesday is part of a series of similar incidents that happened in recent days between the two powers over their presence in Syria, local sources said.

“This is the third incident that occurred within a week,” said Nishan Mohammad, a local reporter who said he witnessed another recent standoff between U.S. and Russian troops in northeast Syria.

“I was there last weekend when U.S. soldiers stopped Russian military vehicles and forced them to head back to their base,” he told VOA in a phone interview Tuesday.

Mutlu Civiroglu

@mutludc

SOHR: US troops settle on M4 to intercept Russian patrols amid continued tension between the two sides in north-eastern Syria http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=153549

Embedded video

While none of these close encounters between two major powers on disputed soil resulted in exchange of gunfire, it presents a potentially deadly situation which could set off spiraling escalation between two superpowers.

This is especially the case given the US and Russia now have small military installations dotting northern Syria in somewhat close proximity to one another.

MOHAMMED HASSAN

@MHJournalist

prevent from heading east towards the areas of #

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Months ago US troops withdrew from some northernmost Syrian towns amid a Turkish military incursion.

In some instances Russian forces immediately came in and took over the same installations, such as the sizable Sirrin Air Base in the northern Aleppo area.

MOHAMMED HASSAN

@MHJournalist

prevent from heading east towards the areas of

Embedded video

While it doesn’t appear Russia has any intent to “take the oil” like the White House has repeatedly pledged, Russian forces there do represent the interests of it’s ally Assad and the Syrian Army.

And as Trump continues talking up “securing the oil” — most recently at Davos — Assad has simultaneously promised to retake all of sovereign Syria, especially the oil-rich Deir Ezzor and Hasakah provinces.

President Trump said while addressing reporters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Wednesday: “But very importantly, as you know, we have the oil. And we left soldiers for the oil, because we take the oil and we’re working on that, and we have it very nicely secured.”

END

6.Global Issues

GREAT LAKES/CARGO

We have witnessed the Baltic Dry index collapse, we have the main shipping lanes from the USA to China and visa versa collapse as well as routes from Europe to China and its reverse, Now we witness international cargo along the Great Lakes plunge 7%

(zerohedge)

International Cargo On US Great Lakes Plunges 7%

World trade in 2019 expanded at its weakest year since 2009. Significant macroeconomic headwinds started to slow the global economy in late 2017, several quarters before the trade war began. We’ve covered the main shipping lanes from the U.S. to China and China to the U.S., along with other routes from Europe to China and China to other Asian countries, but new trade data has shown international cargo on the U.S. Great Lakes also plunged last year.

Cargo hauled across the Atlantic Ocean through the St. Lawrence Seaway to Great Lakes ports plunged 7% Y/Y last year, reported The Times of Northwest Indiana.

Trade officials attributed the steep decline in cargo volumes on the trade war, high waters that made some regions impassible, and adverse weather conditions that weighed on grain exports.

“The challenges of the 2019 shipping season underline the critical importance of protecting the future integrity of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence waterway as a reliable and efficient trade and transportation corridor for the United States and Canada,” said Bruce Burrows, president of the Chamber of Marine Commerce.

“High water levels are negatively impacting residents and businesses, including the marine shipping sector that transports cargo through the St. Lawrence Seaway, and we need to work together with the International Joint Commission and governments to conduct a proper study into water levels and their causes, and to develop a resiliency plan that can address stakeholder needs into the future.”

Burrows said the Great Lakes-Seaway transportation system supports more than 238,000 jobs and $35 billion in economic activity for North American economies.

Canada and U.S.’ annual growth rate has rapidly slowed since 1H18 — as a manufacturing recession continues to deepen. With no signs of abating in early 2020 – international cargo volumes across the Great Lakes could see persistent weakness in the coming quarters.

As for world trade, the expectation of a V-shape recovery in 2020 could be more of fantasy as global equities have already priced-in a massive rebound. The world has likely entered a U-shape recovery as low-growth becomes the new normal.

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1091 DOWN .0005 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.60 DOWN 0.135 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3129   DOWN   0.0014  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3151 UP .0012 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 84.23 POINTS OR 2.75% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 431.92 POINTS OR 1.52%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,69%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT ITALY

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT ITALY 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 431.92 POINTS OR 1.52%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 84.23 POINTS OR 2.75%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 69% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 235.91  POINTS OR 0.98%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1554.60

silver:$17.68-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.74% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.19 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.52 DOWN 1 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.40% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.02%  DOWN  2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.36%//DOWN 6 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,25 DOWN 9 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 89 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.61% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1044  DOWN     .0005 or 5 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.40 DOWN .335 OR YEN UP 34  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3140 DOWN .0002 POUND DOWN 2  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 2 basis points to 1.3140

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9426    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9379  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9434 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.72 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.59 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.78 UP 25  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 64.25  0.85%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 127.33 POINTS OR .94%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 39.19 POINTS 0.65%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 55.20 POINTS or 0.58%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 0.76 POINTS OR 0.00%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.37 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.78 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    62.01  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.31 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.57//

 

 

BRENT :  62.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.73..down 4 basis pts.…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.18..down 4 basis pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1057 ( DOWN 39   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.50 DOWN .232 (YEN UP 23 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.69 UP 16 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:13123 DOWN 20  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9426

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.92   DOWN 0.06 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3128 DOWN 14 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9426  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9270 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.31%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 26.18 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 18.71 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.09 CLOSED UP .18

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION:1.8000%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Surge Intraday ‘Despite’ Global Virus-nado & Plunging US Data

Judging by the intraday surge in US equity prices, you’d think that the Coronavirus was cured and everything was awesome…

But, it’s not!

Virus deaths increase. Virus cases soar in China (23 million quarantined), and Virus cases spread globally (from Singapore to Scotland).

And then there’s Leading Economic Indicators at their weakest since 2009

So what did the machines in the US do? Well, that’s obvious – you buy the f**king global pandemic dip of course!!

Yes, that is Trannies soaring 2% from the opening lows (not the lows were perfectly at the EU close and then the ramp exploded). Dow ended red…

 

Nasdaq is back in the green for the week – so an economy-crushing pandemic is a buying opportunity for tech? WTF!!

 

 

This comes after some serious ugliness in Chinese markets…

Source: Bloomberg

And Europe tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

Dow broke back below 29k early on but the machines were having none of that…

 

As another short-squeeze engineered at the open saved the day…

 

Source: Bloomberg

There was a 90-minute period in the middle of the day with no negative TICK…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US Defensives continue to lead the week, though cyclicals were bid aggressively today…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets were not buying this dip…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And while stocks pushed back towards record highs, bond yields plunged to 3 month lows….

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields fell for the 3rd day in a row…

 

Source: Bloomberg

With 30Y Yield back at their lowest since early October… This is the biggest 30Y Yield drop to start a year since 2015

Source: Bloomberg

2y Yields closed at the lowest since Oct 9th…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve tumbled to its flattest in 6 weeks…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar spiked to its highest in a month early on before fading back…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Yuan tumbled even further overnight but rebounded modestly intraday…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos legged down today, with Bitcoin testing its 100DMA, but remain notably higher on the year…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed despite the dollar gains with crude and copper falling further – unable to ignore China as easily as stocks – as PMs rose modestly…

 

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tested a $54 handle intraday today…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Americans are the least pessimistic about the economy since March 2002…

 

Source: Bloomberg

But its starting to look a lot like 2018…

 

Source: @thehawktrader

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Dow Dumps Back Below 29k, Treasury Yields Hit 7-Week Lows

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down for the 3rd day in a row, breaking back below the key 29,000 level as Treasury yields tumble to seven-week lows…

Dow is down 200 points…

 

Treasury yields are plunging…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And for some context…

Source: Bloomberg

Somebody do something!!!

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

My goodness is this escalating fast:  USA leading indicators are plunging at trhe worst rate since 2009.

(zerohedge)

US Leading Economic Indicators Plunge At Worst Rate Since 2009

A worse-than-expected 0.3% MoM drop in the Conference Board leading economic index, ending the year with 5 down months in the last six.

  • The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices at 0.09
  • The biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -0.23

The LEI is clearly not recovering

And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is up just 0.1% – its weakest YoY move since Nov 2009

“Probably nothing”

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

ANOTHER STRONG INDICATOR THAT THE ENTIRE GLOBE FINANCES HAVE SHUT

DOWN: TWO DALLAS AREA CHIP FACTORIES ARE CLOSING

 

(zerohedge)

 

Texas Instruments To Close Two Dallas-Area Chip Factories Amid Slowdown

Texas Instruments announced Wednesday that it would close two chip plants in North Texas over the next three to five years, reported Dallas News.

Texas Instruments’ Public Relations manager Nicole Bernard said a factory in Dallas at its north campus would be shuttered, along with a chip facility in Sherman.

Bernard said both sites would be wound down no earlier than 2023 and no later than 2025.

“Employees at these factories have been an important part of TI’s overall success and will continue to be critical to help to ensure a successful transition,” Bernard said. “As we get closer to the end of the transition, we expect to offer many (of the) employees jobs in our other Dallas-area manufacturing sites. For individuals without roles at that time, we will offer severance packages and other transition assistance.”

Plans to close both chip plants reflect a shift in the way the company produces chips for a range of devices, from smartphones to automotive to industrial machinery.

The company is concentrating on making 300-millimeter wafers, rather than 150-millimeter wafer production seen at Dallas and Sherman plants.

The announcement was made during earnings call on Wednesday when the company reported revenue of $3.35 billion in the fourth quarter, a decline of 10%. However, a slight improvement from an 11% drop in the third quarter.

The company has been grappling with crosscurrents in the global economy that have slowed the overall industry since 2018, CEO Rich Templeton said, “most markets weakened further.”

“Most markets showed signs of stabilizing,” Templeton said in the prepared statement.

While semiconductor markets have stabilized, we noted that hedge funds have already bet big on chipmakers and hardware firms, pricing in one of the most robust recoveries in years, despite a slowing economy.

The move higher in SOX has been nothing shy of astonishing.

Even though the SOX index has nearly doubled over the past year, yet what is bizarre is that this move certainly was not on the back of earnings, which are now lower than where they were when the index was over 40% lower!

It was due to Huawei and other Chinese technology companies stockpiling chips ahead of a widely expected toughening of U.S. technology sanctions that may come as soon as next month.

Teddy Vallee, CIO of Pervalle Global, tweeted, $TXN revs YoY vs. Global PMI. The guide exactly in-line with our leads for stabilization in ROW but no material pickup.”

World Economic Forum President Borge Brende warned earlier this week that the world is “faced with a synchronized slowdown in the global economy. And we’re also faced with a situation where the ammunition that we have to fight a potential global recession is more limited.”

What could go wrong with asset managers and leveraged funds pricing in a recovery that might not be the expected V-shape but rather more of a U-shape, if not further deceleration.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

Would you believe this? Biden will not deport drunk illegal drivers. It is interesting that his first wife and son were killed by a drunk driver

(zerohedge)

Biden Won’t Deport Drunk-Driving Illegals, Bernie Considers Tearing Down Existing Border Wall

In an apparent effort to out-virtue-signal one another, Democratic Presidential Nominee front-runners, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden unleashed a smorgasbord of “illegal immigrant”-pandering ideas.

“Joe Biden has lost his mind…” was the initial response by Tom Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), after Biden suggested he would not deport illegal aliens convicted of drunk driving if he were president.

As The Daily Caller reported, the former vice president said Monday that, if elected to the White House, he would issue an executive order that would require ICE to only remove individuals who have committed felonies.

He was in Congress for decades. He knows how this works. There is no prerequisite, you commit any crime … be removed from the United States if you’re here illegally. That is the way the law is written in statute,” the former ICE chief said Wednesday.

“I oversaw the removal of one million illegal aliens. Over 100,000 of them were DUI convictions, and many didn’t have convictions at all. They were just here illegally. So his tune has totally changed,” he said. “We didn’t hear a peep from him back when he was vice president on this issue.”

“Whether it’s a misdemeanor or a felony, it is a public safety threat and over 10,000 lives a year are lost. So, again, ICE is going to enforce this law,” Homan concluded.

However, compared to other contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination, Biden is still considered one of the moderate voices on immigration. While Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have openly called for the decriminalization of illegal immigration and a moratorium on deportations.

As Summit News’ Steve Watson reports, as President Trump continues efforts to divert funding to build a new border wall, Democratic Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders said Monday that he would consider ‘tearing down’ the existing border barriers if he is elected.

Sanders reasoned that the current barrier on the US-Mexico border is ‘symbolic’.

He claimed that tearing the wall down “may be” the correct thing to do, adding “but you know it’s how much is it going to cost to tear it down?”

“Should you do that, tear it down? I don’t know, maybe the answer is yes.” Sanders said.

“That’s something you’re willing to consider? You’re willing to consider tearing down existing fencing between the U.S. and Mexico?” David Noriega further asked Sanders.

“Yeah, I’ll always look,” Sanders replied, adding “but again if it’s going to cost me billions of dollars to tear it down, I’d rather invest that maybe in the needs for child care in this country.”

“But it’s, you know, we can look at it.” he concluded.

 

Sanders also promised to put a stop to “99% of deportations”, even including for violent criminals. But Biden would not be outdone, vowing to end all illegal immigration detention “across the board”:

Steve Guest

@SteveGuest

Joe Biden: end all illegal immigration detention “across the board”

Embedded video

Notably, ICE conducted a higher rate of deportations under the Obama administration than in the Trump administration.

END

 

This out to be fun;  Hunter Biden has been ordered to appear in court next week on contempt charges

(zerohedge)

Hunter Biden Ordered To Appear In Court Next Week For Contempt Hearing

Hunter Biden has been ordered to stand in front of an Arkansas judge next Tuesday to explain why he shouldn’t be held in contempt of court for failing to produce a laundry list of financial and personal information in his ongoing child support dispute with stripper Lunden Alexis Roberts.

Roberts asked the court on Tuesday to hold Biden in contempt for failing to disclose financial information, contact information, and “a list of all companies he currently owns or in which he has an ownership interest,” as well as “all companies in which he has had an ownership interest in the past five years.

Also sought are a copy of Biden’s 2017 and 2018 tax returns, deeds to properties he owns, and an executed copy of a financial records release Biden has been avoiding filing unless the court allows him to do so under seal

\

“The defendant continues to act as though he has no respect for this Court, its orders, the legal process in this state, or the needs of his child for support,” reads the filing, which adds “This is but another example of the defendant’s unnecessary actions to frustrate prompt adjudication of this matter and increase the plaintiff’s litigation costs.

Circuit Court Judge Holly Meyer agreed, ordering Biden to appear in person to explain his failure to produce the requested information which was due in August, 2019.

In November, a DNA test revealed Hunter to be the father of the unnamed child with Roberts. In order to determine what Biden can cough up, Roberts has sought extensive financial records for periods which include his time on the board of a Ukrainian energy company while his father was the Obama administration’s point-man on Ukraine.

 

Hunter served on Burisma’s board from 2014 through 2018, while his father openly bragged about getting a prosecutor fired who was investigating the company’s founder for a variety of white-collar crimes.

Hunter Biden did not receive any direct compensation from Burisma — rather, the Ukrainian company wired funds to Rosemont Seneca Bohai (RSB), an American firm controlled by Hunter Biden’s longtime business partner Devon Archer. Between June 2014 and October 2015, RSB wired a total of $708,302 to Hunter Biden for undisclosed purposes while RSB was receiving funds from Burisma.

The IRS placed a tax lien on Hunter Biden for $112,805 in unpaid taxes from 2015, the Daily Caller News Foundation previously reported. –Daily Caller

While Congressional Democrats insist the entire affair was above board, and “debunked,” it is apparently too radioactive for lawmakers to delve into, despite the fact that it’s at the center of impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump – who withheld almost $400 million in US military aid to Ukraine while he was pushing for an investigation into the Bidens

END

This is a good one:  Senator Grassley demands answer from the ONA on defense contracts awarded by the ONA/  He demands many answers to questions posed:

(Sara Carter)

Sen. Grassley Demands Answers From Pentagon On FBI Spy Stefan Halper’s Questionable Defense Contracts

Authored by Sara Carter via SaraACarter.com,

The Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee Sen. Chuck Grassley sent a letter Wednesday to the Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment’s director requesting detailed information on contracts provided to FBI informant Stefan Halper, who was spying on three of President Trump’s campaign aids during the 2016 election probe.

The expansive nature of Grassley’s investigation is significant and coincides – but is separate – with an ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice appointed prosector John Durham’s criminal probe into the matter, as first reported by SaraACarter.com.

 

Durham’s criminal investigation into the FBI, CIA, as well as private entities connected to the bureau’s investigation into the Trump campaign and now debunked theory that it colluded with Russia, has also expanded to the Office of Net Assessment. Known by its acronym ONA, the secretive office is run by Director James Baker, who has been in the role since being appointed by the Obama Administration in 2015.

In the letter to Baker, Grassley asks a litany of questions as to Halper’s role within ONA, his contracts, his foreign contacts and whether the FBI, or other agencies, used the ONA office to pay Halper for spying on Trump campaign personnel.

“Can ONA state for certain that Halper did not use taxpayer money provided by DoD to recruit, or attempt to recruit, sources for the FBI investigation into the now-debunked theory of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia,” Grassley asks Baker.

Baker could not be immediately reached for comment.

According to sources familiar with the matter he has also been questioned by Durham’s investigative team. Grassley has also been looking into the matter since early 2019, when he requested that the “DoD Inspector General (IG) review allegations of mismanagement by ONA contracts for political, improper or wasteful activities.” The Senator “later sought information about ONA contracting processes following a DoD IG audit of the program, which found that ONA could not provide sufficient documentation that Halper conducted all of his work in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. The Pentagon issued a corrective action plan for ONA in august.”

Justice Department Kerry Kupec told this reporter that she could not comment on Durham’s ongoing investigation.

What we do know from Grassley’s office is that the investigation is focused on the ONA’s “contract compliance after reviewing troubling documents related to contracts awarded to Professor Stefan Halper.”

“Those documents call into question ONA’s stewardship of taxpayer dollars as well as its contract management and internal controls,” a press release on the matter stated.

This is where Halper’s role with ONA “becomes highly suspicious and his contracts coincide with his spying on the Trump campaign,” said one former government official, familiar with the matter.  Halper was an integral part of the FBI’s investigation in 2016 into short-term Trump campaign volunteer, Carter Page and George Papadopolous. Halper’s Cambridge Intelligence Seminar was also connected to Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, when in April, 2014 Flynn, who was then head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, was invited as a guest to London, England. Flynn would later be at the center of false stories accusing him of being a Russian asset and wrapping Russian born British academic Svetlana Lokhova into the false stories.

Lokhova, who recently spoke to The Sara Carter Show, said Halper did so because he is ‘the dirty trickster’ used to target, spy and spread disinformation in an attempt to target President Trump.

Lokhova also attended the dinner at the Cambridge Intelligence Seminar in 2014. It was there that she briefly met Flynn. She believes it was Halper who assisted in pushing and leaking the false stories later in 2017 that she and Flynn had an affair and that she was an asset of Russia. She is now suing the news publications and Halper for defamation. 

Halper first made contact with Page at his seminar as well, in July 2016. Page, who was already on the FBI’s radar, was later accused falsely in news reports as being a Russian asset, when false information in former British spy Christopher Steele’s dossier was purposefully leaked in a disinformation campaign against Trump officials. The unverified dossier was also used as the bulk of evidence by the FBI to get a warrant to spy on Page. Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s most recent report revealed the extensive malfeasance by FBI officials to obtain the warrant against Page and also revealed that the FBI failed to validate any information in Steele’s debunked dossier.

The ONA, which was established under former President Richard Nixon, is considered the Pentagon’s ‘think tank’ but has been highly criticized in recent years for what appeared to be a failure to produce assessments. For example, in 2016 Washington Time’s national security writer Bill Gertz published a damning article revealing that Baker failed “to produce more of its signature product, namely, top-secret net assessments.”

As stated by Gertz, the office, “has focused its $20 million annual budget mainly on producing outside research projects, some of them of questionable value, according to critics.” Under the Pentagon the ONA is supposed to be an “internal research organization that awards contracts for academic reports intended to assist the military in producing long-term trends and prospects of military capabilities compared to other countries to identify future threats.”

That’s where Halper comes into play. Halper garnered numerous contracts from the ONA totaling more than $1 million and many which coincide with the same timeline he was reporting on Trump aids to the FBI.

Grassley’s investigation, however, reveals that “reviews of Halper’s research proposals prompted criticism of the quality and necessity of his work product. Other contracts show that Halper listed a Russian intelligence official as a consultant for an ONA project.”

That Russian intelligence official is former Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Vyacheslav Trubnikov. Here’s what’s important. Follow the timeline.

One of the contract’s under question was “awarded in September 2015, Professor Halper lists former Deputy Foreign Minister for Russia, Vyacheslav Trubnikov, as a consultant and advisor to a paper delivered to ONA. Trubnikov is a known Russian intelligence officer, who was listed by Christopher Steele as a source in the now-debunked Steele dossier, which was used as a predicate to obtain a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant to surveil Trump Campaign adviser Carter Page. It is unclear from the contracting officer file whether Professor Halper paid Trubnikov for his assistance in gathering information for this paper, or in what capacity Professor Halper interacted with Trubnikov during the course of performing work for this contract. Further, reports indicate that Halper offered George Papadopoulos $3,000 for assistance in completing an energy study and met Carter Page at a Cambridge conference. Given Professor Halper’s intelligence connections and government funding, it is reasonable to ask whether he used any taxpayer money in his attempt to recruit Trump campaign officials as sources.”

Trubikov is the same source Steele alleged he used in his dossier that allowed the FBI to spy on Page.

“Halper was also in contact with Page and another Trump campaign aide, George Papadopoulos, raising questions about whether Halper used U.S. taxpayer dollars to seek connections with Trump campaign officials,” stated Grassley’s office.

“The interactions also raise questions about what role, if any, Halper had in the Russian election interference investigation, which found no collusion with the Trump campaign.”

In the letter to Baker, Grassley “requested additional data on ONA contracts for the past five years, including details on their purposes, costs and efforts to ensure proper oversight and compliance. Grassley also questioned why ONA issued other contracts unrelated to Halper that appear to have no relation to ONA’s purpose and mission.”

Some Questions Grassley wants answered from Baker’s ONA (From The Letter To Baker) 

In an effort to better understand ONA’s contracting practices, please answer the following questions, on a question-by-question basis, no later than February 5, 2020:

  • ONA is required to conduct a yearly Net Assessment of DoD’s military capabilities as compared to the military capabilities of other countries.[16] When was the last time ONA completed a Net Assessment?
  • Please provide a list of all contracts issued for each year over the last five years, the title of each funded project, and the total cost of each contract to the taxpayer.  Of those contracts, which ones called for classified research?
  • Please provide a list of the top five individuals or entities, in terms of dollar amount, over the last five years that have received awards, including the names of awardees, number of contracts awarded, dates of award, dollar amount per award, the project to be funded, and the authorizing official(s).
  • Please describe ONA’s process for how it evaluates research proposals and oversees the process of editing and managing the research paper.  In your answer, please address the following:
  • What role do pre-award evaluations play with respect to ONA’s decision to award a contract to an individual or entity?
  • Does ONA conduct any assessment of the validity of citations or supporting research used in the research paper?  If not, why not?
  • When entering into contracts, does ONA require that research papers be peer reviewed to assure that the views within the deliverable are adequately vetted and not affected by bias or outside influence?  If not, why not?
  • Does ONA believe that, for a research paper to be of significant value to furthering ONA’s purpose of providing assessments of the standing, trends, and future prospects of United States military capabilities and military potential in comparison with those of other countries, statements within research papers must be accurate and adequately vetted?  If not, why not?
  • Does ONA currently require contractors to provide the name and dollar amount contributed by third parties to ensure that a contractor’s work is in no way influenced by foreign individuals or entities, or any other potential conflict of interest?  If so, please provide this policy.  If not, does ONA intend to develop or institute such a policy?  If not, why not?
  • For each of Halper’s contracts, did ONA perform a post-contract evaluation?  If so, please provide each evaluation.  If not, why not?
  • If a contract has an exercisable option, which individual within ONA makes the determination as to whether that option is exercised?  If ONA has the discretion to exercise an option in a contract, is the strategic value to ONA considered when that option is exercised?  If not, why not?
  • In response to DoD IG recommendation #3, ONA stated that “not every contract requires exhaustive or significant verification of the methods used to derive analytic content.” Further, ONA stated, relating to Professor Halper’s contracts, that “[t]he Government received deliverables that were high quality and conformed to the requirements set forth in the contract.”[18]  ONA further states that quality controls will be established, based on ONA’s minimum needs.
  • If a contractor does not actually interview individuals that they say they interviewed, or provide accurate sourcing, the deliverable does not meet contract specifications and the contractor should not be paid.  Accepting and paying for a defective deliverable may be a violation of law.  If ONA does not take any steps to verify a contractor’s work product, how can ONA rely on that contractor or deliverable to provide accurate information in order to make a net assessment?
  • What quality controls does ONA seek to establish in order to verify that contractors are adhering to, and fulfilling, every requirement in a given contract?
  • After a research paper is completed, are the papers shared outside ONA?  If so, please describe the process by which research papers are shared within the federal government or private sector.  If not, why not?
  • Did Professor Halper ever disclose his relationship with former Deputy Foreign Minister for Russia Vyacheslav Trubnikov to yourself or any other ONA official prior to completion of contract number HQ0034-15-C-0100 (The Russia-China Relationship: The Impact on the United States’ Security)?  Does this relationship with a Russian intelligence officer suggest that there may be biased and unreliable information contained within the deliverable?
  • Can ONA state for certain that Halper did not use taxpayer money provided by DoD to recruit, or attempt to recruit, sources for the FBI investigation into the now-debunked theory of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia?
  • Are you, or any other ONA official, aware of any other relationships Professor Halper had with foreign intelligence officers?

Go Here for the full text of today’s letter to ONA Director Baker.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Trump Cranks Up Pressure on Europe, Renewing Car Tariff Threat

  • Trump says he wants a trade deal with the EU before elections
  • President says even if there’s no deal ‘we’ll do even better’

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-22/trump-cranks-up-pressure-on-europe-renewing-car-tariff-threat

U.S. and Britain trade threats in tech tax row   10:56 AM ET

[Chancellor of the Exchequer] Javid said Britain would press ahead with a digital service tax in April even as Mnuchin, sitting feet away on the same stage, said such a move could generate “arbitrary” retaliation…  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-tax/us-and-britain-trade-threats-in-tech-tax-row-idUSKBN1ZL28M

EU will respond to new U.S. tariffs – German ambassador to U.S.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-trade-eu/eu-will-respond-to-new-u-s-tariffs-german-ambassador-to-u-s-idUSL1N29R0VF

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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