FEB 11//GOLD DOWN $9.30 TO $1566.80 AND SILVER DOWN $.19 TO $17.62 AS THE CROOK POWELL SPOKE//LEBANON IN TOTAL CHAOS AND NEEDS EXTERNAL FUNDS TO SURVIVE//CHINA: HUGE NUMBER OF CORONAVIRUS COMMENTARIES//ECONOMIC MESS CREATED BY THE VIRUS//FLAGSHIP REAL ESTATE FUND RECEIVING MEGA REDEMPTION NOTICES//UNICREDIT TO DISCARD WITH 6,000 STAFF/REPO AGAIN OVERSUBSCRIBED FOR THE 3RD TIME//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT////

GOLD:$1566.80 DOWN $9.30    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

Silver:$17.62 DOWN 19 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

GOLD: 1568.30

 

SILVER: 17.65

 

A new  attraction coming to a theatre close to you:

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 472/810

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,574.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/10/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 02/12/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 65
323 H HSBC 700
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 48
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 81
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 37
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 20
661 C JP MORGAN 472
661 H JP MORGAN 19
685 C RJ OBRIEN 4
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
690 C ABN AMRO 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 23 91
800 C MAREX SPEC 3 18
880 C CITIGROUP 32
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 810 810
MONTH TO DATE: 6,943

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 810 NOTICE(S) FOR 81000 OZ (2.519 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  6943 NOTICES FOR 694300 OZ  (2.596 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEB

 

 

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 220 for 1,100,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9851 DOWN 4 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10,211 UP 364 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A TINY SIZED 46 CONTRACTS FROM 223,902 UP TO 223,948 WITH OUR 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

 

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY  STRONG  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  377 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 240 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  617 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 617 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 617 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.085 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 8 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.100    MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 8 CENTS).. BUT, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A GOOD 686 CONTRACTS. OR 3.43 MILLION OZ….. WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING BUT ON TOTAL,  LONGS NEVER LEFT THE SILVER ARENA.

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

6825 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6825 CONTRACTS) OR 34.125 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 975 CONTRACTS OR 4.875 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 34.125 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.88% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          215.74 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     34.125 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 46, WITH THE 8 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /MONDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 617 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED  SIZED: 663 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE)

i.e 617 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 46 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS   DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.81 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.119 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 159% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR  5,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.10 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4145 CONTRACTS TO 658,782 AND MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE CONSIDERABLE RISE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $6.10 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY//  THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO THE MASSIVE SUPPLY ISSUED BY THE BANKERS TO WHICH ARE LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED..  WE PROBABLY HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING YESTERDAY

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3697 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  0 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 3697; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3697.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 658,783,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7842 CONTRACTS: 4146 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 3697 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7842 CONTRACTS OR 784,200 OZ OR 24.39 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE GAIN OF $6.10 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 24.39  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (GAIN $6.10).  IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AS WE HAD  A FAIR INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3697) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD ADVANCE IN COMEX OI.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 72,306 CONTRACTS OR 7,230,600 oz OR 224.902 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,329 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 224.902 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 223.902/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:    794.09  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            223.902  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4145 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK MONDAY($6.10)) //.WE ALSO HAD A  FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3697 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3697 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7842 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

3697 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  4145 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 24.39 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.10 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30  TODAY

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.

 

FEB 11/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 916.08 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY

A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TODAY:

A DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

 

FEB 11/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 46 CONTRACTS from 223,902 UP TO 223,948 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 617

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  377:  AND MAY: 0; JULY: 240 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 617CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAINAT THE COMEX OF 46  CONTRACTS TO THE 617 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 663 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAINON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.43 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.10 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT RISE IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 686 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.19 POINTS OR 0.39%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 342.54 POINTS OR 1.26%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 142.00 POINTS OR 0.60%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9746 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9746 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9734 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/SMART PHONE SALES

The coronavirus is causing China’s smartphone sales and production to crater big time

(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/AUTO INDUSTRY

With almost 30% of the entire population in quarantined,  it is logical that sales of cars would be anemic.  They were bad even before the coronavirus..now they are simply awful
(zerohedge)

iii)CHINA/USA/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE TUESDAY MORNING.We now have our 13th case in the USA confirmed in San Diego.  China fires two top health officials over their response.  Very promising results with Gilead’s’ Remdesvir.   The Westerdam cruise ship has again been refused entry  and this time Thailand went back on their word. The ship has two days worth of food and fuel

(zerohedge)

iv)CORONAVIRUS /HONG KONG EXPERT

Scary: this Hong Kong expert believes that between 50 to 80% of the world’s population can be infected causing 51 million deaths

(zerohedge)

v)CHINA/USA/TOM COTTON/CORONAVIRUS: BIOWEAPON?

It looks like Tim Cotton is in our camp thinking that the Chinese have bio weaponized this virus.  The fact that Remsdesivir worked so quickly  (AIDS drug) further heightens their concerns

(zerohedge)

vi)CHINESE BANKS/CORONAVIRUS/CATACLYSMIC EVENT?

No doubt that if there is not a cure fast, we will face huge defaults at Chinese banks and this will bring on a $6 tirllion cataclysic event
(zerohedge)

VII)TO BE EXPECTED: CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/HOME SALESChina’s Home Sales crash by 90% in the first week of Feb

(zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY/Unicredit

Italy’s largest bank is firing 6,000 staff as Europe’s economy is not doing too good

(zerohedge)

ii)SWITZERLAND/UBS/REAL ESTATE FUND

This is troublesome with respect to Europe:  UBS,’s flagship real estate fund has been hit with a huge 7 billion dollars of redemptions
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY/SYRIA//RUSSIA

Turkey deploys hundred of tanks and provides considerable commandos to Idlib  as they try and solidify their hold on northern Syria

(zerohedge)

ii)TURKEY/SYRIA

As promised, tensions are escalating with Turkey’s presence in Idlib province

(zerohedge)

iii)LEBANON

In order for the world to help these guys, they must get rid of Hezbollah. If they do not, the west will not help them.
(Fidler //.GoldTelegraph.com)

6.Global Issues

i)AFRICA/CORONAVIRUS

Africa has recorded no cases simply because they had no kits to which to test with

(zerohedge)

ii)Westerdam Cruise liner/Coronavirus

We have have commentary that 5 countries refuse to let the Westerdam dock even though no Coronovirus has been detected on any of the passengers.

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Interesting:  The turkish mint is outpacing the USA mint in producing and selling gold coins

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs/GATA)

ii)Bill Murphy interviewed  and explains recent developments in the gold price suppression scheme

(GATA)

iii)Ronan Manly is certainly correct on this:  China’s ability to buy gold will certainly be true with the pandemic of the coronovarus. However the world will still be purchasing gold because of the turmoil

(zerohedge)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

This is telling: labour markets have just hit a brick wall as job opening disappear. It posted its biggest two month drop in history

(zero hedge)

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)We now have our third consecutive oversubscribed term repo which surely indicates liquidity shortage in the financial markets and it is not easing

(zerohedge)

b)Gilead drug’s Remdesivir is working. It cured the USA patient who contracted the coronavirus.

Hoft/Gateway Pundit

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Trump to clean house at the NSC of huge numbers of Obama holdovers

(zerohedge)

b)Judge again postpones Flynn sentencing.  And those criminal democrats still are roaming free?

(Turley)

c)Insane!  this whole process.  The lead prosecutor resigns immediately after the Dept of Justice rejects his absurd sentencing proposal

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY GOOD SIZED 4145 CONTRACTS TO 658,782 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GAIN IN OI WAS SET WITH A CONSIDERABLE GAIN OF $6.10 IN GOLD PRICING //MONDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//).  WITH THE STRONG EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAD ANOTHER FAILED ATTEMPT AT BANKER SHORT COVERING ……NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA MONDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A ,FAIR SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3697 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 3697,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3697 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  STRONG SIZED 7842 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3697 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 4145 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED. WE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING.

 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SOMEWHAT UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $6.10). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX DUE TO THE  BANKER ISSUANCE OF SHORT PAPER….AND IN TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, WE GAINED A  STRONG SIZED 7842 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES….(24.39 TONNES)

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  7842 CONTRACTS OR 784,200 OZ OR 24.43 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  658,782 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 65.87 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,049 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,049/2200 OR 93.14% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 46 CONTRACTS FROM 223,902 UP TO 223,948 (AND CLOSER T THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 8 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/MONDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

FEB IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 1 CONTRACTS SHOWING A LOSS OF 6 CONTRACTS//MONDAY TRADING. WE HAD 6 NOTICES SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH THEY REFUSED TO ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS IF THEY WOULD HAVE PERFORMED THEIR DEED.

 

March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 6674 contracts  DOWN TO 135,533

APRIL saw a gain of 1 contract up to 97.

MAY had a good 6213 gain in oi to stand at 51,509, accepting basically all the rollover from March.

 

 

We, today, had  1 notice(s)  for 5,000, OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 231,549 contracts??  low volume   

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  203,569 contracts//low volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

 

FEB 11/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
321.50 oz
Scotia
10 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 10,448.75 oz

 

325 kilobars

 

Loomis

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
810 notice(s)
 81000 OZ
(2.596 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
773 contracts
(77300 oz)
2.7404 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6943 notices
694300 OZ
21.596 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had  2 kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

ii) Into Loomis:  10,448.75 oz

325 kilobars//phony entry

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  10,448.75 oz

 

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

I ) Out of Scotia:  321.50 oz
10 kilobars

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  321.50 oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  1

Out of HSBC:  47,735.492 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer account and we will deem this a settlement.

1.4847 tones

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of February saw its open interest fall by 146 contracts down to 1583 contracts.  We had 198 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED a strong 52 contracts or an additional 5200 oz will  stand for delivery here and THUS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH into London based forwards and thus negate a fiat bonus. The March non active contract month saw its OI FALL by 59 contracts down to 2938.  The big April contract month saw its OI rise by 4559 contracts up to 483,688.

 

We had 198 notices filed today for 19,800 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 19 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 810 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 472 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6943) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (1583 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (810 x 100 oz per contract) equals 771,600 OZ OR 24.000 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (6943 x 100 oz)  + (1583)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (810 x 100 oz )which equals 771,600 oz standing OR 24.000 in this  active delivery month of FEB. which is a still a great opening for gold // amount standing.

 

We GAINED 52 contracts or 5200 oz REFUSED TO LEAVE USA shores to visit the Queen in London.  They REFUSED TO ACCEPT A London based gold forwards as well as NEGATING a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 39.865 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             24.000 tonnes

 

total: 154.339 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 22.3377 TONNES SETTLED (includes the 1.4847 tonnes of today)

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 154.339  tonnes

 

Thus:

154.339 tonnes of delivery –

22.3377 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

=132.0013 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 39.865 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,457,896.331 oz or  45.346 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,281,684.9  (39.865 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,281,684.9  (39.865 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,724,202.278 oz 271.35 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1.GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 11 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 622,493.710 oz
Brinks
HSBC
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,139,338.630 oz
CNT
loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  220 contracts

1,100,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

*

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into CNT: 603,204.400 oz

iii) Into Loomis:  535,145.730 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.23% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/320.180 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,139,338.630   oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia: 600,382.100 oz

 

ii) Out of Brinks; 2061.35 oz

iii) Out of  HSBC: 20,050.200  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 622,493.710  oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  79.510 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.713 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 220 x 5,000 oz = 1,100,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (1) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 220 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (1)- number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz equals 1,100,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

We gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 86,851 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 84,063 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 84,063 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 420 million  OZ 60.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.20% ((FEB 11/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO +0.58% to NAV FEB 11/2019 )* FIRST TIME IN MANY MOONS THAT WE HAD A STRONG POSITIVE NAV IN GOLD/SPROTT

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.20%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.45 TRADING 15.15///DISCOUNT  1.20

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 11/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 916.08 tonnes

*IN LAST 759 TRADING DAYS: 21.38 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 659 TRADING DAYS: A NET 145.69. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ IINTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

FEB 11.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

364.179 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.72/ and libor 6 month duration 1.72

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .00

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.82%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.80

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Interesting:  The turkish mint is outpacing the USA mint in producing and selling gold coins

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs/GATA)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Turkish mint outpaces U.S. mint

 Section: 

1:30p ET Monday, February 10, 2020

 

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

 

 

(GATA)a Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes today that the Turkish mint produces far more gold coins than the U.S. mint and that, indeed, gold coins are widely recognized as circulating money in Turkey and the Near East.

Nieuwenhuijs’ report is headlined “Turkish Mint Outpaces U.S. Mint” and it’s posted at Voima Gold here:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/turkish-mint-outpaces-u.s.-mint

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Bill Murphy interviewed  and explains recent developments in the gold price suppression scheme

(GATA)

GATA chairman interviewed on recent developments in gold price suppression

 Section: 

9:41p ET Monday, February 10, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Market watcher Mario Innecco in London has just interviewed GATA Chairman Bill Murphy about recent developments in gold price suppression policy as well as its background. The interview is 25 minutes long and can be viewed at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt0wwWRf0v8&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Ronan Manly is certainly correct on this:  China’s ability to buy gold will certainly be true with the pandemic of the coronovarus. However the world will still be purchasing gold because of the turmoil

(zerohedge)

 

Ronan Manly: China’s gold market not immune to a wider downturn

 Section: 

9:50p ET Monday, February 10, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The near-lockdown of China’s people and economy to prevent the spread of the coronavirus is bound to affect the nation’s gold demand and gold market, Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly writes today. The epidemic, Manly writes, will put China’s gold market data in great question and it may be months before the data can be considered generally reliable again.

Manly’s commentary is headlined “China’s Gold Market Not Immune to a Wider Downturn” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/chinas-gold-market-not-imm…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

 

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/02/11/what-happening-to-silvers-volume/

 

What Happening to Silver’s Volume?

Posted February 11th, 2020 at 9:59 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

 

Gold is trading lower in our early morning (USA based) report with the price at $1,573.20, down $6.30 inside another tight trading range between $1,576.40 and $1,569.10. Silver is exactly like Gold, hardly moving, and with almost no trading volume at all, with its trade at $17.71, down 7.1 cents and close to the low of $17.680 with the high at $17.800. The US Dollar is still the go-to currency during our most recent crisis with its value now pegged at 98.705, down 0.009 of a point inside a trading range between 98.805 and 98.685. Of course, all of this happened while we slept, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after another central banker jumped the ship of rats.

 

Our Emerging Markets Currency watch is proving a “mix in movements” so far this morning. In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 15,712.34 Bolivar, shaving 20.97 off the top with Silver at 176.879 reducing its value by 0.449 of a Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso now has Gold gauged at 95,812.62 Peso’s adding more value as another 196.01 Peso’s was put into its price with Silver at 1,078.54 Peso’s, it too gaining 1.28 in value. The Turkish Lira’s price for Gold now rests at 9,487.91 proving an additional 2.84 in value with Silver at 106.795 Lira, shaving off 0.109 of a T-Lira.

 

February Silver’s Delivery Demands are showing a count of 1 proving that single lot order added yesterday was a new trade and showing that yesterday’s 7 count demand for physicals, might have been delivered, here or in London, or that it may have been used as a spread entry/exit. As of this morning, we have another 1 added to the mix under the Volume column and with a price at $17.695. The Overall Open Interest in Comex Silver is now at 223,969 Overnighters, showing only 36 contracts being added during yesterday’s slow trade day. The Open Interest Column has been our focus for years and with that, the Volume as well. Things have sure turn silent within Comex Silver’s trading arena (if we can call it that anymore). The Volume Column is all about the contracts that are traded throughout the day, showing us the control the Algo’s have over the price. Volume is also another way to gauge how the governing bodies get paid as well. They get fees (commissions) when a trade is entered into or exited out of and the Volume is their tally, or said another way, it’s how we can gauge the profits they make watching over all the illegal activities. Now, consider all the commodities that are traded and see the things we do, this system pays them well, to look the other way, as the Algo’s swing against the real trader. As of right now the Volume in the most “liquid” month (March) in Silver is at 18,482 with the OI at 135,533. What happened? Are the algo’s leaving this side of the precious metal’s ratio keeping only Gold controlled?

 

February Gold’s Demand Count now has a total of 1,583 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 52 posted up on the board with a trading range between $1,570.90 and $1,565.20 with the last buy at $1,568.30. This proves a reduction of 146 receipts for physicals from yesterday’s numbers and with the yesterday’s closing Volume at 122 replacing all but 24 contracts from Monday’s OI tally. Gold’s Overall Open Interest now rests at 658,783 Overnighters, proving the shorts had to add 3,635 more pieces of paper in order to stay the price. April Gold is the primary traded contract at the Comex, its Open Interest is at 483,687 with a Volume of 94,335 so far this morning. This is slightly lower than the Algo norm yet it helps to show the differences between the 2 manipulated metals and how one is presently not trading like the other.

 

The international banking sector has been culling its brokers for years now. As of this morning, another cull occurred this time Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit announced today, it expects to cut 6,000 jobs and close 450 branches in Italy. They expect to reduce their body count by 8,000 position by 2023, those that wish to stay are told to “learn to code”, which means blockchaining everything (by 2023?) is in our future.

 

The Diamond Princess Cruise ship has no news updates whatsoever after yesterday missive. The idea of having over 5% infected within 2 weeks helps prove our issue that the Chinese governments tallies are off (way off). Another concerning point is this viral epidemic maybe have started in the beginning of December with some noting a Dec 3rd start date. We’ll wait for more data, but also warn that the prepared mind is a steady one, and a good thing to have, in a crisis.

 

Keep the attitudes positive no matter what, have a smile on your face and a prayer for all, and as always …

 

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9746/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9734   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 11.19 POINTS OR 0.39%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 342.54 POINTS OR 1.26%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 142.00 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.82/Euro FALLS TO 1.0910

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.07/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 50.53 and Brent: 54.21

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.39%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.97% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.28%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.36: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.04

3k Gold at $1569.70 silver at: 17.74   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 53/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.58

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 54 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.85 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9781 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0671 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.39%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.59% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.05%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0320..

US Futures Soar To New Record Highs On “Coronavirus Optimism” Ahead Of Powell Testimony

Global stocks resumed their ascent to all time highs on Tuesday amid fresh coronavirus “hopes” after China’s top medical advisor said the Chinese epidemic may peak over the next few weeks. Momentum came from the US, where the S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high on Monday, and takeover target Sprint soared more than 60% in the pre-market after T-Mobile US was said to be poised to win court approval for its $26.5 billion takeover. The dollar nudged lower versus a basket of its major peers.

US equity futures climbed alongside stocks in Europe and Asia following news that a judge is set to approve a merger between Sprint and T-mobile will be approved, and investors pushed benchmarks to record highs before congressional comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Oil rose and Treasuries slipped.

Despite the latest dose of coronavirus optimism which judging by the record high in stocks has been injected every single day with two notable occasions, China’s factories were struggling to re-open after an extended break and analysts warned that investors might be underestimating the economic damage, but the mood remained strong after another Wall Street surge overnight.

The death toll in mainland China climbed past 1,000 on Tuesday, but the number of new confirmed cases fell, although contrary to the market’s interpretation that this is due to a slowdown in the pandemic it mostly reflects a limitation on how many cases China can test as well as a change in the definition of an infection by China’s health council.

So for today’s dose of optimism, Zhong Nanshan, an epidemiologist who helped fight the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the situation in some provinces was already improving. “The peak time may be reached at … maybe middle or late this month,” Zhong told Reuters.

The reaction was quick: Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose as much as 0.7% to a record high of 427.46 points, with basic resource stocks leading the gains, rising 1.7%, as commodity prices recovered from the slowdown in Chinese consumption of raw metals and energy.

“There are some hopes that the peak of virus may be on the horizon, but we are still quite cautious,” said TD Securities’ European Head of Currency Strategy Ned Rumpeltin. “We are still pretty far from the all clear … and we just don’t know what the macroeconomic impacts are going to be.”

In China, factories were slow to reopen after an extended Lunar New Year break, leading analysts at JPMorgan to again downgrade forecasts for growth this quarter. “The coronavirus outbreak completely changed the dynamics of the Chinese economy,” they said in a note we discussed previously. They assumed the contagion would peak in March and factories would slowly resume opening this month. In that case, growth would slow to around 1% in the first quarter, before rebounding to 9.3% in the second. Should the contagion not peak until April, the economy could contract in the first quarter, with a rebound spread over the second and third quarters, JPMorgan warned.

Even so, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose 0.9%, snapping a two-day decline, riding on an overnight advance in U.S. stocks with Shanghai blue chips ahead by 0.8%. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday, although Nikkei futures traded up 0.8%. As risk sentiment improved, the region’s benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index gained as much as 1.1%. Hong Kong and South Korea equities climbed the most, while India’s Sensex Index also advanced. Even with a death toll that has topped 1,000, China reported the lowest number of new coronavirus cases since Feb. 1, an encouraging sign as health officials look for the outbreak to peak. Singapore, meanwhile, cautioned that it expects a 25% to 30% decline in tourist arrivals and spending this year.

Analysts continued to dance between painting the latest global economic slowdown as good news for stocks, while also explaining why a return to growth would also be good news for stocks: “At the margin, we have to consider that the rebound in growth we were expecting over 2020 may be either delayed or somewhat less vigorous than we were anticipating due to the impact of the virus,” Mark Robertson, head of multistrategy at Aviva Investors, said in an interview in Sydney. “But ongoing monetary policy support, especially what was delivered last year, a reduction in uncertainty around trade wars, should still be a tail wind.”

All this leads to today’s main event: Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress to begin two days of testimony as markets are now pricing in almost 40bps of rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve to cope with coronavirus damage. The Treasury yield curve slightly inverted to reflect the danger of recession, even as Powell is expected to reiterate that the U.S. economy is doing well but that rates can stay low given the current low inflation environment.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index edged lower, easing from 2020 highs while commodity-related currencies advanced amid signs that the rate of contagion from the coronavirus is stabilizing. Gains in global stock indexes and U.S. equity futures added to the risk-on mood. Norway’s krone touched the strongest level this month as oil prices rose and risk assets were in demand. Bets on the euro in the options market have turned bearish, ending a divergence with spot trading that had held since mid-January, with investors in both now showing a united preference for short exposure in the common currency. The yen edged lower as its haven appeal eroded; Japanese financial markets were shut due to a Tokyo holiday.

Treasuries fell alongside European bonds, under pressure after being led lower by bunds, which extended losses ahead of a six-year Dutch auction and a syndicated sale from Italy. Ahead are Powell’s testimony and $38BN 3-year note sale, first of three quarterly refunding auctions. Futures activity was constrained during Asia session by a holiday in Japan that closed the cash market, with yields 1bp-2bp higher across the curve led by 5- to 7-year sector; 10-year higher by 1.7bp at ~1.59%.

Looking to the day ahead, the New Hampshire primary mentioned earlier is expected to be the main highlight. Central bankers will also be dominating the agenda, with a number of key speakers. From the ECB, we’ll hear from President Lagarde, as well as the Executive Board’s Lane and Schnabel. Over in the US, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee as part of the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, while there’ll also be remarks from Vice Chair Quarles, Daly, Bullard and Kashkari. Here in the UK, Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking before the House of Lords’ Economic Affairs Committee and elsewhere Haskel will be speaking. Finally, data releases to look out for include the first look at Q4 GDP in the UK, while the US sees the release of the NFIB small business optimism index for January, along with December’s job openings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,359.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 426.99
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 169.77
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 550.05
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 23,685.98
  • Topix down 0.7% to 1,719.64
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 27,583.88
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,901.67
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 41,224.88
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,055.31
  • Kospi up 1% to 2,223.12
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.3 bps to -0.388%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.0915
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.786%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 0.276%
  • Brent futures up 1.6% to $54.14/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,569.71
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.83

Top Overnight News

  • The death toll from the coronavirus exceeded 1,000, as the province at the center of the outbreak reported its highest number of fatalities yet and removed top officials. Beijing said regions less hit by the disease should accelerate a resumption of industrial output
  • The European Central Bank has set out an ambitious timetable for its strategic review that could see a decision on whether to change its inflation goal by the summer, according to euro-area officials. The reappraisal has eight study teams covering themes ranging from the core topic of inflation to modern challenges such as climate change and trade
  • Little more than a month since Sweden’s central bank raised its key policy rate to zero in December the jury is still out on the move. The narrative of sustainably strong inflation that the Riksbank clung to while justifying the increase looks set to unravel, leaving investors to speculate whether it might eventually need to revert to more stimulus
  • The U.K. government will break away from European Union rules governing financial services, but wants to agree a “durable” trading relationship for banks, Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid said. The European Union swiftly rebuffed the call for London’s financial services firms to enjoy continued access to the single market
  • The U.K. economy narrowly avoided a contraction in the fourth quarter, adding to evidence of a pickup following Boris Johnson’s election win. Johnson is set to push ahead with the HS2 high-speed rail project linking London to northern England, despite political opposition and spiraling costs
  • Treasuries now make up more than half of the world’s haven assets, double the share they accounted for during the global financial crisis, according to Eurizon SLJ Capital. That complicates matters when the spread between long- and short-term yields inverts: what used to be a reliable American recession indicator is instead an barometer of investors diving for cover worldwide

Asian equity markets were higher across the board after taking the cue from US peers which looked past the ongoing coronavirus concerns and resumed last week’s rally to lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to unprecedented levels. ASX 200 (+0.6%) was led by outperformance in tech and with firm gains in the largest weighted financials sector. Chinese markets were also upbeat despite the PBoC liquidity drain and continued rise in the casualties from the coronavirus in which the death toll has now surpassed 1000, although the pace of additional confirmed cases slowed from the prior day. Following yesterday’s reassurances offered by Chinese President Xi, the Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) traded positively with the former buoyed by property names and with Geely Auto the frontrunner in Hong Kong as it explores a merger with its Volvo unit, while Japanese markets remained shut for National Day holiday.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Stocks Miss Key Level as Virus Worry Limits Gains
  • China Starts Giving ‘Force Majeure’ Slips to Virus-Hit Companies
  • Geely Surges in Hong Kong on Proposed Merger With Volvo Cars
  • Key Erdogan Ally Says Turkish Ties With Russia Must Be Reviewed

European stocks trade firmer across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +0.7%] albeit off earlier highs, following on from a similar APAC handover – after the state of play overnight was dictated by the gains on Wall Street. Subsequently, the pan-European Stoxx 600 hit fresh record highs whilst the bellwether Eurostoxx 50 reached levels last seen in 2008.  France’s CAC (+0.3%) marginally lags regional peers with the index weighed down by Michelin (-2.8%) post-earnings after the group watered-down guidance in which it now expects the FY20 operating income to be “slightly down YY” whilst also acknowledging softness in passenger cars, light trucks and off-road tire markets. Sectors are all in positive territory and reflect risk appetite as cyclicals outpace defensives. In terms of individual movers, Daimler (+1.0%) shares remain resilient post-earnings despite a slash to its FY dividend –  which was set at EUR 0.90/shr, down from the prior of EUR 3.25/shr and below the expected EUR 1.30/shr. Shares remain buoyed following comments from its CEO who noted that cost-cutting measures will be ramped out as part of its initiative, whilst the overall risk sentiment also aids the stock as DAX30 Mar’20 futures probe its contract high of 13639 (Note: Daimler has a 5.6% weighting in DAX30). Sticking with Germany, Deutsche Telekom (+4.1%) shares are bolstered amid source reports that the long-awaited T-Mobile (+8.8% pre-market) and Sprint (+64% pre-market) merger may get the green light from US district judge later today. Deutsche Telekom is T-Mobile’s majority shareholder with a holding of ~63%. On the flip side, NMC Health (-13.6%) received a double whammy despite opening with mild gains, initial downside stemmed on the back of a City regulator probe into the complex director share pledges at NMC after the Co. revealed that it was not apparent who actually controls its largest shareholdings. Thereafter, the second wave of downside arose from KKR has confirming that it has not made an offer regarding an offer for the Co, and adding that it does not intend to make an offer for NMC – which comes amid yesterday’s upside in the NMC shares amid sources noting that it is in talks with KKR regarding a potential deal valued at around GBP 2bln.

Top European News

  • U.K. Economy Avoids Contraction Amid Post-Election Bounce
  • JPMorgan Upgrades Two Greek Banks on Improved Asset Visibility
  • Johnson Set to Back $129 Billion U.K. High-Speed Rail Plan
  • Russia Studying Recommendations of OPEC+ JTC on Coronavirus

In FX, it is déjà vu for the Aussie and Norwegian Krona, but this time the former has rallied on domestic grounds rather than Chinese data to an extent at least, while the latter has extended post-CPI gains with the aid of a firm bounce in oil prices. Aud/Usd is back above 0.6700 and Eur/Nok has crossed 10.1000 to the downside in wake of an acceleration in Australian home loans and as crude rebounds ahead of API inventory updates, the official EIA data on Wednesday and Russia’s meeting with oil companies to discuss OPEC+ proposals for deeper output cuts.

  • USD – Notwithstanding the ongoing outperformance noted above, and resilience in other G10 currencies, the Dollar is still appreciating steadily with the DXY nudging over another Fib resistance level before fading a fraction below the psychological 99.000 mark. Perhaps some reticence and caution ahead of Fed chair Powell part 1, but the index has carved out a marginally firmer 98.810-917 range and registered a fresh 2020 peak in the process.
  • CAD/NZD/GBP – The aforementioned recovery in oil has cushioned the Loonie to a degree between 1.3289-1.3320 parameters, but the Kiwi remains capped under 0.6400 as the clock ticks down to Wednesday’s RBNZ policy meeting and the Aussie continues to outshine its Antipodean counterpart (Aud/Nzd briefly above 1.0500 at one stage). However, the Pound looks more comfortable above 1.2900 vs the Greenback and around 0.8450 in Eur/Gbp cross terms following a raft of UK data including a firmer than forecast preliminary Q4 y/y GDP print. Cable stalled a whisker short of yesterday’s best and 1.2950, with attention now turning to BoE speakers from 12.30GMT.
  • EUR/CHF/JPY – All narrowly mixed against the Buck, as the single currency fends off more concerted attempts to breach 1.0900 and stays within striking distance of option expiries at 1.0915-20 in 1.2 bn, but lags the Franc that is still pivoting 0.9775 and holding above 1.0700 respectively amidst heightened German political uncertainty. Elsewhere, the Yen remains rangy just over 110.00 in holiday-thinned trade after Japan’s National Day and against a firmer Yuan (Cnh and Cny both maintaining 7.0000+ status vs the Usd).
  • EM – More Lira underperformance on geopolitical jitters as the situation in Syria threatens to escalate further after reports that Turkey has increased military activity with Government forces retaliating. Usd/Try has advanced beyond 6.0440 in contrast to Usd/Zar staying well below 15.0000 even though SA manufacturing output fell far more than expected in December.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are posting firm gains in early EU trade in a continuation of the sentiment-driven upside seen during the overnight session. WTI has just about reclaimed USD 50/bbl following yesterday’s sub-50 settlement whilst Brent hovers around the USD 54/bbl mark following yesterday’s settlement close to USD 53/bbl. On the OPEC+ front, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister noted that the members would either meet in late February or early March to discuss further action – which does somewhat defer to earlier comments out of some OPEC+ members, with the Azeri Minister noting over the weekend that a February meeting was discussed but “the situation was analysed and the meeting will be held in March as planned”, whilst Russian Energy Minister Novak attempted to bide his time to assess market impacts. ING notes that a March meeting “may concern many in the market as waiting too long to take action in the wake of the demand impact from the coronavirus.” For reference, sources noted the Russian Energy Minister said they will hold a meeting tomorrow with domestic oil producers to discuss the OPEC+ deal, which could add more meat on the bone regarding Russia’s next steps/thought process. Looking ahead to today’s session, the monthly EIA STEO will be released at 1700GMT with credence on global growth demand forecasts against the backdrop of the coronavirus. Thereafter, the weekly API private inventory report will be released – with forecasts for a headline crude build of 3mln barrels over the week. Tomorrow will see the release of the OPEC monthly report followed by the IEA oil report on Thursday. Elsewhere, spot gold trades lower with the yellow metal pressured by the overall risk appetite. Conversely, copper conformed to the risk tone and clambers back towards USD 2.6lb.

US event calendar

  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 103.5, prior 102.7
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,925, prior 6,800
  • Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 3.97%
  • MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 0.84%

Central Banks

  • 6am: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Dublin
  • 10am: Powell to Speak Before House Financial Services Panel
  • 12:15pm: Fed’s Quarles Speaks on Bank Supervision
  • 1:30pm: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 2:15pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Kalispell, Montana

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from a very rainy New York. I thought I had a tough day yesterday with the EMR, an 8-hour flight, transfers, a full afternoon of meetings and then the EMR again. However, my wife always brings me crashing back down to earth as she told me last night how Maisie was late for school again because the 2yr old twins locked themselves in the toilet again and covered themselves with hand moisturiser from those pump dispenser bottles. Then a couple of hours later at a music sing-a-long class the twins love, the person who runs the class took my wife aside and asked whether she thought this class was still suitable for the boys. This seemed to be code for they are too rowdy and not welcome anymore. I grilled my wife as to what they do that’s so bad and she said that they are just incredibly loud and feed off each other. My wife was very affronted and upset over it. To be fair in my younger days I once got chucked out of a gig for singing very loudly in the front row. Mentioning that on the phone from 3500 miles away late last night didn’t help the mood much.

Being stateside it’ll be interesting to monitor the mood in the election primaries first hand ahead of New Hampshire tonight. Returning to our market survey, last month 89% of our respondents thought Trump would win the US Presidential race and only 10% thought Sanders would get the Democratic nomination. Will any of that change in our survey this month? Feel free to fill in and influence it. In terms of what to expect tonight, the RealClearPolitics polling average has Bernie Sanders in the lead with 28.7%, ahead of Pete Buttigieg at 21.3%, while Amy Klobuchar (11.7%), Elizabeth Warren (11.0%), and Joe Biden (11.0%) trail behind them. Senator Klobuchar has received a large boost in post-debate polling, coming at both Buttigieg and Biden’s expense – which could ultimately play to Senator Sanders’s benefit tonight. Indeed, Sanders won the state by a decisive 22-point margin against Hillary Clinton in 2016’s primary and is the incumbent US senator for the neighbouring state of Vermont. That said, few would have expected that Joe Biden would have come in 4th place in Iowa last week, so it’s definitely still an open contest. Indeed, with no candidate withdrawing from the race following the Iowa Caucuses, it’ll be interesting to see if New Hampshire performs its traditional winnowing role that sees some of the candidates start to drop out of the race.

Ahead of going to New Hampshire himself to rally for the largely uncompetitive Republican primary, President Trump spoke yesterday afternoon to a room of the nation’s state governors. On trade, the President turned his attention to Europe saying that his administration would soon take on the EU and address the “tremendous trade deficit with Europe” like they did China. Europe and global markets wait nervously to see whether Mr Trump will go after the continent’s trade practises in election year. The President also talked down the effects of the Coronavirus on the US, pointing out the relatively few number of cases within the country (13 following another overnight), and a belief that the coming warmer weather would help curtail the spread of the novel disease. Finally, Trump released his preliminary annual budget in which he proposed cuts to social programs and taxes, while increasing defense and entitlements spending. The budget, which is just an opening salvo and would not have to be approved until after the 2020 election in November, would take the federal debt above $30trl over the next decade. This further signals how both major parties in the US have embraced larger debt burdens going forward. See our piece last week (link here) on the latest huge increase in long term debt projections from the CBO.

Seemingly sharing President Trump’s lack of fear over the coronavirus, US equity markets rose to new highs last night, with the S&P 500 up +0.73% and the NASDAQ +1.13%, while in Europe, the STOXX 600 pared back earlier losses to close up +0.07%. Energy stocks underperformed on both sides of the Atlantic, suffering from oil’s continued decline as both brent crude (-2.20%) and WTI (-1.49%) fell back, although they have recovered about half of those losses this morning.

This morning Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Hang Seng (+1.28%), Shanghai Comp (+0.34%) and Kospi (+0.91%) all up, with Japanese markets closed for a holiday. The latest on the virus also is that the number of deaths in China stand at 1,016 with 42,638 confirmed cases. On that the impact of the coronavirus is said to be causing Singapore to lose 18,000 to 20,000 tourists per day which is the equivalent of a drop of 25% to 30%. It’ll be worth watching some of these data points as they start to get released covering the virus impacted period.

Back to yesterday and the main global under-performer was Irish equities following the country’s election over the weekend, with the ISEQ all-share index losing -1.20% as investors reacted to the prospect of a leftward shift in policy after Sinn Féin’s strong performance. Fianna Fail’s deputy leader Dara Calleary said in an interview with broadcaster RTE that Fianna Fail will engage with Sinn Fein saying “we’re not going to refuse to talk to them, but let’s be in no doubt that those policy difficulties and those principles are still difficult hurdles.” Bookmaker Paddy Power has made a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein-Green grouping as the most likely outcome in government formation.

Bonds mostly followed the slightly softer sentiment in Europe rather than the late US risk rally as yields saw a decline across the board. 10yr Treasuries were down -1.4bps to 1.570% but sold off a couple of bps in the last hour of trading. 10yr bund yields fell -2.5bps, while the spread of BTPs over bunds rose by +3.5bps. Meanwhile the dollar index was up +0.15% yesterday, strengthening for a 6th consecutive session to reach a 4-month high, and Bitcoin strengthened +1.25% against the dollar as it climbed to a 5-month high. The move lower in 10yr Treasuries was accompanied by a +0.6bp increase in the 3-month, causing the Fed-preferred 3-month-10y yield curve measure to invert yet again.

Back to politics and before the New Hampshire poll tonight, the main political news from yesterday came from Germany, where CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced that she would be standing down as leader and won’t be the party’s chancellor candidate at the next election. This is a major development in German politics that throws open the question of where the CDU goes next and who might be the next chancellor after Angela Merkel steps down. The catalyst for AKK’s resignation was last week’s debacle in the German state of Thuringia, where the local CDU joined with the far-right AfD to help elect an FDP politician as regional premier, marking the first time that the AfD had acted as kingmaker in German politics. However, AKK’s performance had been in question for some time, and since taking over the leadership in December 2018 she has made a number of perceived gaffes and seen her own authority over the party weaken.

In terms of what happens next, AKK said that she’d be staying on for now in order to oversee the leadership contest, so don’t expect any immediate changes over the coming days. For who might succeed her, names in the frame include Friedrich Merz, who was AKK’s main opponent in the last leadership race, and enjoys strong support from the CDU base. He also announced only last week that he’d be stepping aside from his role at BlackRock next month in order to focus on politics. Another is Armin Laschet, the state premier of North-Rhine Westphalia, a more moderate figure who has governed the country’s most populous state since June 2017. You can read all the latest from our German economists who put out a note on the issue yesterday (link here).

Here in the UK, the FT has reported overnight that the UK government will ask the EU to sign up to a “permanent equivalence” regime for financial services that will last for “decades to come” to ensure that the city of London can maintain access to the European market after Brexit. Earlier, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid had said that the UK government will break away from EU rules governing financial services, but wants to agree a “durable” trading relationship for banks. However, he added, “We may choose to do things in the same way as the EU if it works for the UK. But there will be differences, not least because as a global financial center the UK needs to keep pace with and drive international standards. Our starting point will be what’s right for the UK”

There was very little in the way of data yesterday, though the Bank of France’s industry sentiment indicator for January fell to 96 (vs. 97 expected), a 4-month low. That said, the services sentiment reading rose one point to 98, while construction also rose one point to 106. According to this, GDP is expected to grow by +0.3% in Q1, following the -0.1% contraction in Q4. Elsewhere, Italy reported poorer-than-expected industrial production numbers for December, with a decline of -2.7% (vs. -0.6% expected), which follows weak numbers out of France and Germany last week.

Looking to the day ahead, the New Hampshire primary mentioned earlier is expected to be the main highlight. Central bankers will also be dominating the agenda, with a number of key speakers. From the ECB, we’ll hear from President Lagarde, as well as the Executive Board’s Lane and Schnabel. Over in the US, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee as part of the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, while there’ll also be remarks from Vice Chair Quarles, Daly, Bullard and Kashkari. Here in the UK, Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking before the House of Lords’ Economic Affairs Committee and elsewhere Haskel will be speaking. Finally, data releases to look out for include the first look at Q4 GDP in the UK, while the US sees the release of the NFIB small business optimism index for January, along with December’s job openings.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.19 POINTS OR 0.39%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 342.54 POINTS OR 1.26%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 142.00 POINTS OR 0.60%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9746 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9746 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9734 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/SMART PHONE SALES

The coronavirus is causing China’s smartphone sales and production to crater big time

(zerohedge)

China’s Smartphone Sales And Production To Crater Amid Supply Chain Shock

One major threat to the recovery in global growth this year is the coronavirus outbreak that is centered around Greater China.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has now labeled the deadly virus a global health emergency as more than 902 people have died, surpassing all of SARS (813) in just three weeks.

Global confirmed cases hit 40,544 in China and 382 offshore on Sunday. The WHO Director-General warned: “we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg” when it comes to the outbreak.

The virus poses a significant economic risk to the Chinese economy amid 400 million people quarantined, dozens of cities on lockdown, shuttered manufacturing hubs, and a collapse in retail and tourism. We’ve also noted that complex supply chains in and out of China have been severed, which will lead to an economic shock felt around the world in the coming weeks and or months.

One significant disruption that is becoming all too obvious at the moment, which Qualcomm warned last week, is that coronavirus has disrupted the smartphone industry.

A new report, according to Reuters, details China’s smartphone sales could plunge upwards of 50% in 1Q, as retail phone stores and production of semiconductors/smartphones remain closed.

“Vendors’ planned product launches will be canceled or delayed, given that large public events are not allowed in China,” research firm Canalys said in a note.

“It will take time for vendors to change their product launch roadmaps in China, which is likely to dampen 5G shipments.”

While Canalys expects China’s smartphone shipments to halve this quarter, International Data Corporation (IDC) expects shipments to drop by about 30% for the period.

TrendForce Corp. said Apple could see a 10% decline in iPhone sales in 1Q, from 45.5 million to about 41 million units.

TrendForce slashed its 1Q global smartphone production forecast -12% Y/Y, due to factory closings across Greater China. It warned global smartphone production in 1Q would be around 275 million units, a 5-year low in production.

 

We’ve noted, in the last several weeks, that if factories cannot resume production early this week and have full production by the end of the month, shortages would develop and hit the largest brands in the world, such as Apple iPhone and AirPods.

The one sector with the most exposure to Greater China and Asia Pacific is also the sector that has outperformed the most in recent months: Tech.

Ample Fed liquidity has made Wall Street blind as a bat when it comes to recognizing the unraveling of complex supply chains in Asia, and the slowdown in global growth.

The V-shape recovery in global growth could be more like a U-shape or continuation to the downside for 1H20 – as it appears, coronavirus will stick around for the immediate future.

end
CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/AUTO INDUSTRY
With almost 30% of the entire population in quarantined,  it is logical that sales of cars would be anemic.  They were bad even before the coronavirus..now they are simply awful
(zerohedge)

Massive Auto Inventory Begins To Stockpile As Coronavirus Zaps An Already Anemic Chinese Car Market

Things couldn’t possibly be looking any worse for the Chinese auto industry.

Even before the coronavirus scare, the industry had already been mired in a steep recession that we have been covering at length for nearly the last two years. To make matters worse, that recession was predicted to continue for a third straight year, through 2020, with sales forecasted to fall yet again. And this was before the coronavirus…

Now, with the entire country locked down due to the coronavirus, things look as though they could be much worse for China’s auto industry. And that, in turn, could very easily pull down the auto industry globally.

Last month, inventory of unsold cars in China rose by 6.5%, according to Bloomberg. Average inventory levels were at 62.7% for January, according to the China Automobile Dealer Association. These numbers are far above the standard 50% level that is considered normal in the industry. 

And the forecast for the immediate future, let alone the rest of the year, looks pessimistic. Dealers are expecting sales in February to be less than half of those a year ago. In fact, Bloomberg notes that 70% of dealers polled by the CADA said they had seen “almost no customers” since the end of January. 

This follows China’s Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, saying in mid-January (prior to the coronavirus outbreak becoming severe) that the industry still faces “big downward pressure”.

At the time, he predicted sales of just 25 million units for the year. We obviously think that this number could wind up being materially lower.

Recall, sales for 2019 totaled 25.769 million units. Sales of just 25 million units – an optimistic prediction in our eyes – would mark a third straight year of declines for the world’s largest auto market regardless.

 

The MIIT also said at the time that it would further study and review its NEV vehicle subsidies. Recall, Beijing backing away from these subsidies caused NEV sales to taper off toward the end of 2019, sullying what was an otherwise consistent silver lining for the country, even amidst the overall recession in autos.With no signs of the country recovering from its ongoing epidemic, there doesn’t seem to be any silver linings left.We noted in December that NEV sales plunged 42% in November after Beijing backed away. The government is ostensibly dedicating all of its efforts to deal with the country’s ongoing outbreak, and so Beijing has not revisited its comments about EVs yet, and we are already halfway through Q1 2020.China did say, however, it is going to “maintain support” for NEVs, without getting into too much detail. Miao also said he’s confident that the country will ensure “stable industrial production in 2020” while phasing out “zombie firms”. There may have been some spooky foreshadowing in those words from mid-January, as almost every business in the locked down major cities of China now looks like a “zombie firm”.

Wuhan has become a ghost town

As we noted several weeks ago, passenger car vehicle sales in China fell to end 2019, plunging 3.6% to 2.17 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

It marked the 18th drop in the past 19 months for the country. For the full year 2019, sales in China declined 7.5%, marking the country’s second straight annual decline. 

end

CHINA/USA/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE TUESDAY MORNING.

We now have our 13th case in the USA confirmed in San Diego.  China fires two top health officials over their response.  Very promising results with Gilead’s’ Remdesvir.   The Westerdam cruise ship has again been refused entry  and this time Thailand went back on their word. The ship has two days worth of food and fuel

(zerohedge)

13th US Virus Case Confirmed In San Diego; China Fires 2 Top Health Officials Over Botched Response

A 13th case of the Wuhan coronavirus has been confirmed in the US after one of the Americans who traveled to California from the epicenter of the outbreak on an evacuation flight last week has been determined to have contracted the virus.

Like with cockroaches, where there is one case of coronavirus, there will likely be more, especially since the patient traveled on a long-haul flight with dozens of others, increasingly the likelihood that at least some of them were infected. The State Department chartered four flights to rescue more than 800 Americans who had been trapped in Wuhan by the quarantine passed by Chinese officials on Jan. 23. One American who apparently opted to stay behind in Wuhan has succumbed to the virus, according to Chinese officials.

Even more alarmingly, the evacuee was accidentally mistakenly released from UC San Diego Medical Center, though she wasn’t released to the public: All evacuees will spend 14 days on designated military bases being repurposed as quarantines. The case was the first in San Diego.

Initially, the hospital reported that four patients undergoing testing at the hospital had tested negative for the virus, and they were discharged and returned to federal quarantine at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, where more than 200 evacuees are staying. However, “further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for 2019-nCoV,” CDC officials advised San Diego Public Health on Monday morning, and the person was returned to hospital” for observation, the hospital said in a statement.

The CDC said it’s tracing all of the individual’s contacts since arriving in the US, Reuters reports.

“CDC is conducting a thorough contact investigation of the person who has tested positive to determine contacts and to assess if those contacts had high risk exposures.”

Most US-China flights have been suspended by the White House, and only a handful of American nationals arriving on commercial flights from China have been quarantined under rules imposed on Feb. 2 to curb the virus’s spread.

There are now at least 3 cases of the virus diagnosed in California.

One of the private jets that carried Americans back from Wuhan

Out of eight states that have set up airport screenings for the virus, only six of them said they had no one under quarantine, while NY said it had 4 and Illinois aid it had a “tiny” number.

In China, the scapegoating continued on Tuesday as Beijing fired two of the most senior health officials in Hubei just hours after officials reported 108 new deaths from the virus on Monday, the first time a daily death toll has topped 100. Only 2 of the more than 1,000 deaths occurred outside mainland China.

Zhang Jin, the Communist party boss of the provincial health commission in Hubei, and its director Liu Yingzi were removed by decree of the party yesterday.

In their stead, senior Beijing official Chen Yixin has been sent to Wuhan to lead virus-suppression efforts at the crisis’s ground zero. Chen, a former deputy party chief in Hubei, will be deputy head of a central government group dispatched to the province.

Additionally, 3 senior Wuhan officials have been summoned to Beijing to explain their failings, according to state media reports cited by the SCMP.

Authorities were accused of playing down the extent of the outbreak in early January because they wanted to project an image of stability.

Wuhan authorities also faced criticism for going ahead with an annual public banquet for 40,000 families just days before the city was placed on lockdown, according to the Daily Mail. Beijing is of course trying to deflect attention from the senior Party leadership’s failures – failures that are implicit in their policies which guarantee the suppression of information during crises. However, the death of Dr. Li Wenliang late last week made it almost inevitable that the locals in Wuhan and Hubei would be punished – after all, it was Wuhan police who initially reprimanded Dr. Li for his warnings about the outbreak. Warnings that, if heeded, would have helped save hundreds of lives.

A top Red Cross official in Wuhan was also removed for dereliction of duty earlier this month. Local officials have faced an intense backlash almost since the beginning, once it had become clear that the virus had been allowed to spread within Wuhan without police or health authorities doing anything to stop it.

“Right now I’m in a state of guilt, remorse and self-reproach” said the official in an interview with CCTV last month.”

“If strict control measures had been taken earlier, the result would have been better than now.”

In South Korea, Reuters reports that the first confirmed coronavirus patient is returning to Wuhan (apparently despite the lockdown) after being discharged by the South Korean medical team that treated her.

While a leading coronavirus expert in Hong Kong warns that nCoV could infect “60% to 80%” of the global population if left unchecked, on the mainland, the state media continues to flood the population with overly optimistic projections and silly human-interest stories.  Zhong Nanshan, the Chinese government’s senior medical adviser, said Tuesday that the outbreak might already have peaked.

In an interview with Reuters, the 83-year-old scientists who helped fight the SARS epidemic said his model showed the virus should peak in the middle of February.

Echoing comments from President Trump, the scientist added that he hoped the virus would peter out by April.

“I hope this outbreak or this event may be over in something like April,” he said in a hospital run by Guangzhou Medical University, where 11 coronavirus patients were being treated.

“We don’t know why it’s so contagious, so that’s a big problem,” added Zhong, whose previous forecast of an earlier peak turned out to be premature. He said there was a gradual reduction in new cases in the southern province of Guangdong where he was, and also in Zhejiang and elsewhere.

Finally, the man from Brighton believed to be the ‘super spreader’ linked to 11 cases involving a French ski chateau has broken his silence, according to the Guardian.

His name is Steve Walsh, he’s 53 years old, and this is his story:

“I would like to thank the NHS for their help and care – whilst I have fully recovered, my thoughts are with others who have contracted coronavirus.”

“As soon as I knew I had been exposed to a confirmed case of coronavirus I contacted my GP, NHS 111 and Public Health England.”

“I was advised to attend an isolated room at hospital, despite showing no symptoms, and subsequently self-isolated at home as instructed.”

“When the diagnosis was confirmed I was sent to an isolation unit in hospital, where I remain, and, as a precaution, my family was also asked to isolate themselves.”

“I also thank friends, family and colleagues for their support during recent weeks and I ask the media to respect our privacy.”

Over in Hong Kong, dozens of residents of a housing complex in Hong Kong have been quarantined after two people living on separate floors were infected with the virus, raising the possibility that it might have been traveling through the pipes.

Per local officials from Hong Kong’s Center for Health Protection, the decision to partially evacuate the building was made after investigators discovered an unsealed bathroom pipe in the apartment of a 62-year-old woman found to be infected. She lives 10 floors below another resident who was found to be infected, the NYT reports.

Yesterday, we reported that the Westerdam cruise ship had finally been granted permission to dock in Thailand after being turned away from three other countries, despite having ZERO confirmed nCoV cases aboard. Now, Thailand has rejected it, leaving it once again adrift. The ship is set to run out of food and other essentials in just two days.

END

CORONAVIRUS/HONG KONG EXPERT

Scary: this Hong Kong expert believes that between 50 to 80% of the world’s population can be infected causing 51 million deaths

(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Coronavirus Expert Warns Outbreak Could Infect “Between 60%-80%” Of Humanity, Causing 51 Million Deaths

The city of Hong Kong and its 7 million+ residents have reason to be extremely anxious about the nCoV outbreak that has already caused more than 1,000 deaths on the mainland. Back in 2003, SARS ripped through the densely populated largely autonomous city and killed some 300 people, nearly half the total death toll from the outbreak.

Professor Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, was one of the first officials anywhere in China to suggest that the government was hiding, or simply hadn’t yet confirmed, the true extend of the outbreak.

Though Beijing has been touting a ‘slowdown’ in the number of newly diagnosed cases, few believe that the outbreak has actually crested, even as a huge percentage of the population in the world’s largest country has spent the last week huddled inside.

Which is why we feel Leung’s latest warning is worth our attention, and yours.

 

Riffing off of comments from WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who said yesterday that the we might be seeing only ‘the tip of the iceberg’ in terms of number of cases, Leung said the scientific community’s ‘overriding concern’ is figuring out the ‘size and shape’ of the iceberg.

Leung added that most experts now believe the virus has a transmission rate of – or r-sub-zero – of 2.5, meaning the average infected individual will transmit the virus to 2.5 others. This also translates to an “attack rate” of 60%-80%, the Guardian reports.

“Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.

On Tuesday morning, Chinese health officials confirmed nearly 100 new deaths, bringing the toll to 1,013 as of late Monday.

If the virus continues to spread at this pace, even a relatively low fatality rate of 1% – which Leung believes is possible once milder, undetected cases are accounted for – could still lead to a massive death toll. Rough calculations indicate that, if two-thirds of the 7.7 billion people living on earth are infected, a 1% mortality rate would still lead to nearly 51 million deaths.

Once all of these other variables have been determined, Leung said he would tell the WHO that the main issues would be figuring out the scale of the worsening global epidemic, and learning whether China’s draconian measures have worked to help suppress the spread.

The upcoming meeting in Geneva, which Leung plans to attend, will bring together more than 400 researchers and national authorities. Some plan to participate by video conference from the mainland and Taiwan.

“With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” Dr. Tedros said last week.

One of the world’s leading experts on coronavirus epidemics, Leung played a major role in fighting the SARS outbreak and has worked closely with other leading scientists, including counterparts in the UK.

Does Leung really think the virus will infect 80% of the world’s population? Or even 60%? Maybe not. The virus has reportedly been mutating and changing as it has spread, and it’s still possible it could change in ways that inadvertently help humanity suppress it. For example, it could “attenuate its lethality,” as Leung put it.

Epidemiologists and modellers were trying to figure out what was likely to happen, said Leung. “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said.

But if we don’t figure out exactly how bad the outbreak has already gotten, it will be much more difficult to stop it from arriving at the worst-case scenarios.

END

 

CHINA/USA/TOM COTTON/CORONAVIRUS: BIOWEAPON?

It looks like Tim Cotton is in our camp thinking that the Chinese have bio weaponized this virus.  The fact that Remsdesivir worked so quickly  (AIDS drug) further heightens their concerns

(zerohedge)

Senator Cotton Demands Beijing Prove Coronavirus Isn’t A Bioweapon As Another ‘Conspiracy Theory’ Goes Mainstream

A little more than one week ago, the mainstream press branded the notion that nCoV might have originated as a bioweapon developed in a secretive Wuhan lab as a deranged conspiracy theory, with zero conclusive evidence to support it (despite the mountain of coincidences have been reported by Zero Hedge and others).

Readers may remember how Buzzfeed was extremely triggered by our coverage.

And they also might be interested to hear that over the last two days, two mainstream financial media organizations and a prominent Republican Senator have all raised questions about the virus’s provenance, suggesting that the bioweapons theory isn’t so far-fetched after all.

Is it merely a coincidence that the Canadian scientist at the center of a bio-espionage probe was recently found dead in Africa, as we reported last week? Or that a doctor who helped draft a critical international bioweapons convention has said that the virus might be tied to “biological warfare?”

Or an Israeli bioweapons expert?

Apparently, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton believes Beijing needs to address these questions, particularly after China’s ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai accused him of “xenophobia” against Chinese people by even suggesting that the virus could have been engineered as a bioweapon.

“I think it’s true that a lot is still unknown and our scientists, Chinese scientists, American scientists, scientists of other countries, are doing their best to learn more about the virus, but it’s very harmful, it’s very dangerous, to stir up suspicion, rumors and spread them among the people,” he said.

“For one thing, this will create panic,” Cui said, adding that it could also foment xenophobia and racist discrimination.

“There are all kinds of speculation and rumors,” he added, noting that there were also conspiracy theories about the virus originating in the United States. “How can we believe all these crazy things?”

On another note, when asked about Chen Qiushi, a citizen journalist who disappeared after covering the outbreak in Wuhan, Cui responded “I have never heard of this guy, so I don’t have any information to share with you.”

Watch this video:

But back to the virus, Cotton first tweeted questions about the virus, pointing out that China’s most advanced virus research laboratory, known as the Wuhan Institute of Virology, was situated in Wuhan, near the epicenter of the outbreak.

Replying to the ambassador’s interview, Cotton again accused Beijing of lying and trying to cover up the outbreak during its early days.

Tom Cotton

@SenTomCotton

.@ambcuitianki, here’s what’s not a conspiracy, not a theory:

Fact: China lied about virus starting in Wuhan food market https://twitter.com/facethenation/status/1226540067805650944 

Face The Nation

@FaceTheNation

NEW: @AmbCuiTiankai dismisses #coronavirus conspiracy theories pushed by @SenTomCotton that it’s being used as biological warfare as “absolutely crazy.” WATCH –>

Embedded video

Later, he tweeted that the “burden of proof” is on “the communists” to explain where this virus came from. He has acknowledged the theory that it originated when a human consumed a wild animal like a snake or a bat, which were sold at a market in Wuhan identified as the epicenter of the outbreak.

Tom Cotton

@SenTomCotton

Fact: super-lab is just a few miles from that market

Where did it start? We don’t know. But burden of proof is on you & fellow communists. Open up now to competent international scientists.

During a Tuesday morning on CNBC, Cotton sounded as convincing as ever, warning that Beijing has repeatedly lied about the outbreak – particularly during the earliest and most critical stages – while China’s refusal to let American or any other international scientists or researchers to assist in the research on the ground in China is also curious, to say the least.

In response to the ambassador’s accusations of fearmongering that have been directed at him, Cotton argued that “what really spreads fear is China lying about the origins of this disease and about the number of people who have it and excluding American and other western scientists from studying it. As far as racism…the Chinese people are the people are most harmed by the Chinese government’s incompetence and duplicity.”

He added that the virus could be the “single biggest threat to the US and Chinese growth this year.”

Unsurprisingly, the Squawk Box clip published by CNBC edits out Cotton’s responses to questions about the bioweapons.

Squawk Box

@SquawkCNBC

“I’m afraid that the could actually be the single biggest threat to both global and U.S. growth this year,” says @SenTomCotton. “What really spreads fear is China lying about the origins of this disease and about the number of people who have it.”

Embedded video

Fortunately, we happened to be watching, and decided to take some notes.

When Cotton was asked to explain why he believes the bioweapons theory is credible, he pointed out that “Wuhan has China’s only biosafety level 4 super laboratory that works with the worlds most deadly pathogens that include the coronavirus.”

Yesterday, Maria Bartiromo questioned Peter Navarro, a senior White House advisor and noted China hawk, about the bioweapons theory. While he certainly sounded a little uncomfortable responding to her question, he definitely didn’t rule out the possibility.

Russian Market

@russian_market

Coronavirus could have started in a weapons lab.. wow

Embedded video

So over the last week, the bioweapons theory has gotten more credible, not less. Just like other ‘conspiracies’ like reports that China has been burning bodies.

END
CHINESE BANKS/CORONAVIRUS/CATACLYSMIC EVENT?
No doubt that if there is not a cure fast, we will face huge defaults at Chinese banks and this will bring on a $6 tirllion cataclysic event
(zerohedge)

China’s Banks Face $6 Trillion Coronavirus Cataclysm If Epidemic Is Not Contained Soon

In a little noticed post back in November, we reported that as part of a stress test conducted by China’s central bank in the first half of 2019, 30 medium- and large-sized banks were tested; In the base-case scenario, assuming GDP growth dropped to 5.3% – nine out of 30 major banks failed and saw their capital adequacy ratio drop to 13.47% from 14.43%. In the worst-case scenario, assuming GDP growth dropped to 4.15%, some 2% below the latest official GDP print, more than half of China’s banks, or 17 out of the 30 major banks failed the test. Needless to say, the implications for a Chinese financial system – whose size is roughly $41 trillion – having over $20 trillion in “problematic” bank assets, would be dire.

Why do we bring this up now? Because according to many Wall Street estimates, as a result of the slowdown resulting from the Coronavirus pandemic, China’s economic growth is set to slow sharply, with some banks such as JPMorgan now expecting as little as 1% GDP growth in Q1 assuming the epidemic is contained in the next few weeks; if it isn’t, Chinese Q1 GDP growth may print negative for the first time on record.

This is a big problem, because as noted above if the PBOC’s 2019 stress test is credible, more than half of China’s banks would fail the “stress test” should GDP drop to just 4.15%; and one can only imagine what happens to China’s banks if GDP prints negative.

Or, alternatively, one can read the fine print, where we find that among the immediate first order consequences of a GDP crunch is that the bad loan ratio at the nation’s 30 biggest banks would rise five-fold, flooding the country with trillions in non-performing loans, and potentially unleashing a tsunami of bank defaults.

Of course, regular readers are wll aware that China’s banks are already suffering record loan defaults as the economy last year expanded at the slowest pace in three decades. As extensively covered The slump tore through the nation’s $41 trillion banking system, forcing the not only the first bank seizure in two decades as Baoshang Bank was nationalized , but also bailouts at  Bank of Jinzhou, China’s Heng Feng Bank, as well as two very troubling bank runs at China’s Henan Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank at the start of the month, and then more recently at Yingkou Coastal Bank.

All that may be a walk in the park compared to what is coming next.

“The banking industry is taking a big hit,” You Chun, a Shanghai-based analyst at National Institution for Finance & Development told Bloomberg. “The outbreak has already damaged China’s most vibrant small businesses and if it prolongs, many firms will go under and be unable to repay their loans.”

While the market is filled with optimistic speculation that the Chinese economy will be spared the worst, we already know that China’s top aluminum buyers have already voided contracts with some of the world’s biggest copper producers citing “force majeure” provisions. We doubt they will be the only ones, or that China’s banks will somehow escape unscathed a millions of businesses freeze their operations, refusing to pay the coupon or debt maturities. This means that China’s banks – already undercapitalized from nearly two years of trade war with the US – will bear the brunt of the coming operational and liquidity squeeze, and Beijing will be forced to chose between bailing out hundreds of banks, or letting them fail.

To be sure, JPMorgan is not alone in its dire GDP forecast: UBS estimates growth will slow to 3.8% in the first quarter from a 6% pace at the end of year and to 5.4% for 2020 if the virus is contained within three months. If the virus is more protracted, annual growth could dip below 5%. Goldman Sachs similarly predicts a sharp slowdown in the quarter to 4%, while still predicting full-year growth at 5.5%.

It gets worse.

Doing its own calculations based on China’s stress tests, Bloomberg reports that according to S&P estimates, the worst-case scenario would cause bad debt to balloon by 5.6 trillion yuan ($800 billion), for a ratio of about 6.3%, adding to the already daunting 2.4 trillion yuan of non-performing loans China’s banks are sitting on (a number which, like the details of the viral epidemic, is largely massaged lower and the real number is far higher according to even conservative skeptics).

Predictably, S&P expects that banks with operations concentrated in Hubei province and its capital city of Wuhan, the epicenter and the region worst hit by the virus, will likely see the greatest increase in problem loans. The region had 4.6 trillion yuan of outstanding loans held by 160 local and foreign banks at the end of 2018, with more than half in Wuhan. The five big state banks had 2.6 trillion yuan of exposure in the region, followed by 78 local rural lenders, according to official data.

The problem is that Beijing recently “advised” the largest banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, to serve their civic duty by bailing out millions of struggling small businesses by providing more cheap loans, rolling over debt and waiving fees, steps which will only add to the total bad debt total.

And so, just as China has scrambled to talk down the impact of the pandemic, so too officials have sought to ease concern over the hit to the banking sector. Zhou Liang, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said on Friday that a potential increase in bad loans is “manageable” without clarifying what level of bad loans would become unmanageable. Chinese lenders dissolved 3 trillion yuan of bad loans last year alone, he said, adding that bad loan ratio of China’s small businesses was at 3.22%.

Highlighting the plight of small bushiness, most of which are indebted to China’s banks, a recent nationwide survey showed that about 30% said they expect to see revenue plunge more than 50% this year because of the virus and 85% said they are unable to maintain operations for more than three months with cash currently available. Perhaps they were exaggerating in hopes of garnering enough sympathy from Beijing for a blanket bailout; or perhaps they were just telling the truth.

In any event, nothing short of a coronavirus cataclysm faces both China’s banks and small businesses if the coronavirus isn’t contained in the coming weeks.

Until then, banks have no choice but to keep throwing good money after bad, adding to their plight: “Social stability is of utmost importance to the authorities in China,” S&P analysts led by Tan Ming said in a recent report. “Therefore, banks have been asked to help carry the burden of this health outbreak.”

It gets worse: at a time when banks are desperate for any inbound cash, Beijing is telling them to collect even less interest on existing loans, effectively tying their fate with the success (or failure) of eradicating the coronavirus. As Bloomberg reports, while most state banks agreed to cut the borrowing costs of virus-stricken firms by 0.5 percentage point, the State Council now requires them to ensure that small businesses are paying no more than 1.6% with government subsidy.  And even as cheaper financing may help the broader economy, rates below 5% mean banks are barely making enough money to cover their cost of funding after accounting for default risks.

Which brings us to yet another unpleasant comp to the SARS epidemic, or even the 2008 global financial crisis: what differentiates the current episode from 2008 or 2003 “is the lack of bank capital now to support an aggressive bank-led credit stimulus,” said Grace Wu, head of Greater China Banks at Fitch Ratings in Hong Kong. “Chinese banks do not have the same capacity to replenish capital now given their profitability has trended down in recent years.”

And not even the government in Beijing can magically conjure trillions in new funds to bail out its entire banking system without catastrophic consequences across an economy which is already suffering from the highest inflation in 9 years.

None of this has escaped investors, who are turning more downbeat on Chinese banks by the day, and whose shares have underperformed the benchmark in most of the past five years. The “big four” state-owned lenders, which together control more than $14 trillion of assets, currently trade at an average 0.6 times their forecast book value, near a record low. This also means that in the eyes of the market, as much as $6 trillion in bank assets are currently worthless!

Bank stocks have responded appropriately, with Bloomberg writing that China’s credit giant, ICBC with over $4 trillion in assets, is down 11% YTD while China Construction Bank Corp., the nation’s second largest, has lost 7.6% so far in 2020.

The worst is yet to come however, as the unexpected coronavirus epidemic is now their greatest test, and the longer it lasts, the lower the chances of a happy ending: “The resilience of China’s banking system may be severely tested,” the S&P analysts said.

END

TO BE EXPECTED: CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/HOME SALES

China’s Home Sales crash by 90% in the first week of Feb

(zerohedge)

 

‘Worse Impact Than SARS’ – China Home Sales Crash In First Week Of February

Bloomberg cited a new report via China Merchants Securities (CMSC) that said new apartment sales crashed 90% in the first week of February over the same period last year. Sales of existing homes in 8 cities plunged 91% over the same period.

“The sector is bracing for a worse impact than the 2003 SARS pandemic,” said Bai Yanjun, an analyst at property-consulting firm China Index Holdings Ltd. “In 2003, the home market was on a cyclical rise. Now, it’s already reeling from an adjustment.”

Long before the coronavirus outbreak, China’s housing market has been on shaky grounds amid declining demand, stricter mortgage requirements, and price discounts.

The latest shock: two-thirds of China’s economy has come to a standstill, could generate enough pessimism to pop the country’s massive housing bubble.

After all, coronavirus is a mass distraction from the overall domestic problems the Communist Party of China (CPC) faces.

The CPC failed to stimulate the economy last year, with credit impulse not turning up as expected. The virus outbreak has allowed the CPC to scapegoat the slowdown and the inevitable crash.

“…China’s ability to stimulate its economy is now virtually nil, since China’s record debt load has now made it virtually impossible to push the country’s credit impulse higher,” we noted last week.

Real estate transactions have been forbidden in many cities. This means fire sales could be seen once selling restrictions end.

E-House China Enterprise Holdings Ltd.’s research institute said four units per day were being sold in Beijing last week, and this is down from several hundred per day during the same period in the previous year.

China International Capital Corp. analyst Eric Zhang said demand could pick back up in April, assuming the virus outbreak is under control.

However, residents in major cities are frightened by the virus outbreak and how easily it spreads in apartment buildings.

The downturn in China’s property market could get a lot worse, and without proper liquidity from the central bank, once selling restrictions end, it could trigger a liquidity gap where housing prices face a deep correction.

But remember, the CPC can now blame the virus for a housing market crash or a downturn in the economy.

END

From Robert to me:

 

Chinese tourists outnumber Americans at least 2 to 1. In recent days we have read about cancellations have affected India with 50,000 less tourists. The effect of this is devastation to tour operators, all manner of transportation and the hotel business. Watch as all report poor results for the 1st quarter come April,May, as public companies report. And global real estate activity will suffer as as the Chinese buying  shrivels and perhaps we see a retraction of asset values abroad due to capital pressure within China. There is no doubt many Chinese parties will have to unload external assets in an effort to stay afloat. So all manner of non essential goods will be dumped for quick sale. And perhaps this is already under way.

With 0 economic output for what is now 6 weeks, what measure of global growth is being lost? Because it is not just output but imports that must be taken into calculation. With Asian fresh fruit and vegetable growers losing roughly $2 billion daily the impact does not take long to devastate many producers to the point that recovery many not be possible. This will in the future have a impact on food supply and price. No doubt both producers and consumers of goods will rethink China as a risk not seen before. Trade with China will not be expectant of stability or growth as the true nature of fallout is just beginning to be seen as cancellations of many raw material contracts are now starting to occur daily from copper to soybeans. This will impact the balance sheets of producers and restrict their own credit and limit future activity. Copper ingots in inventory against a cancelled delivery contract do not create warmth with bankers.
And then one ask about the impact to the pharmaceutical business with approximately 90% of the drugs being made in China. What is the length of the supply line in domestic inventory of such drugs that are consumed daily by many people. What happens when drugs needed by people run out? While it is nice to think tat ample supply exists the reality will be shortages will develop before things stabilize.
This is a many faceted hydra with the Chinese people as the center suffering. From what is rumored many factories are and have been converted to produce items like masks for internal production. 
It remains to see how and if the world will come to aid of China and how various countries will react to country specific impacts in weeks ahead as the true extent of the fallout becomes more apparent.

Cheers
Robert

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY/Unicredit

Italy’s largest bank is firing 6,000 staff as Europe’s economy is not doing too good

(zerohedge)

Italy’s Largest Bank Firing 6,000 To Boost Stock Buybacks

While China is seeking to contain a viral epidemic that targets humans, Europe has been fighting an epidemic of its own, one which instead of targeting humans focuses on banks, and instead of a viral vector the European contagion is spread by negative interest rates.

With Deutsche Bank firing tens of thousands of workers in recent years in a desperate attempt to restructure itself into profitability by cutting both muscle and bone, now it is the turn of Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit which today announced it expects to cut 6,000 jobs and close 450 branches in Italy as CEO Jean Pierre Mustier sets his three year “efficiency” (read mass layoffs and cost-cutting) plan in motion.

As Bloomberg details, citing a letter sent to unions, the reductions and closures will take place through 2023, and are part of a plan announced in December to cut about 8,000 positions, or more than 9% of the workforce.

While the official narrative is that Mustier is cutting costs and accelerating the cleanup of the balance sheet “as the executive focuses on further simplifying the bank’s structure and improving the way it allocates capital”, the real culprit here is Europe’s negative rates which have made virtually every lending institution into a melting ice cube as the banking system simply can not function in a world where the cost of money is negative.

Naturally, those who are about to get pink slips, or the Italian equivalent thereof, were not happy.

“Unions are strongly against the job and branch cuts plan,” said Fulvio Furlan, general secretary of Uilca, one of the main banking unions. “Discussions with unions must lead to solutions that limit the job cuts and include a plan of new hirings.”

Sorry bank unions, nothing you say will change the fact that thousands among you will soon “learn to code.” Feel free to deliver your grievances to the ECB’s former head who unleashed this insanity in Europe, and who is now enjoying his retirement somewhere in a highly fortified villa on the shores of Lake Como.

That said, not everyone is a lower: the bank’s strategic plan through 2023 also envisions boosting investor returns through a combination of dividends and share buybacks.

In short, fire thousands of workers to fund buybacks and generated higher returns for shareholdesrs. Ah, capitalism…

END
SWITZERLAND/UBS/REAL ESTATE FUND
This is troublesome with respect to Europe:  UBS,’s flagship real estate fund has been hit with a huge 7 billion dollars of redemptions
(zerohedge)

UBS’ Flagship Real-Estate Fund Hit With $7 BIllion In Redemptions

The pain for active investors who have underperformed the broader market for over a decade, has claimed its first notable casualty for 2020: according to the WSJthe flagship real-estate fund of Swiss banking giant UBS has been hit with about $7 billion in redemption requests following a lengthy period of underperformance. As a result, UBS has stepped up efforts to stem the bleeding at its $20 billion Trumbull Property Fund flagship real-estate fund amid concerns over its retail holdings, “as some investors move away from more conservative, lower-return funds.”

The UBS woes follow two months after M&G, a London-listed asset manager, said it has been unable to sell properties fast enough, particularly given its concentration on the retail sector, to meet the demands of investors who wanted to cash out. The investor “run” led the fund to suspend any redemption requests in its £2.5 billion ($3.2 billion) Property Portfolio in early December 2019.

While UBS hasn’t followed in M&G’s footsteps yet and gated investors, the Swiss bank has offered to reduce fees for investors who stay in the fund and to charge no management fee for new investments, according to an analyst presentation to the City of Cambridge. Mass., Retirement System. The bank also recently replaced some in the fund’s top leadership, including Matthew Lynch, the head of U.S. real estate, the WSJ reports.

 

A mall owned by the Trumbull property trust

Alas, once a fund faces a rise in redemption requests – and this becomes mainstream knowledge – the redemptions cascade and capital outflows can be hard to stop. If a fund manager doesn’t have enough cash to meet the requests, it has to sell properties. That often takes time, causing a backlog and increasing pressure on the fund to sell; what usually happens next is a “gate” barring investors from withdrawing funds.

“When there is a redemption queue investors often feel they have to get in line so they aren’t the last ones left to turn off the lights,” said Nori Lietz, a senior lecturer of business administration and faculty member at Harvard Business School.

And as in the case of numerous funds discussed previously, analysts believe that is the case with Trumbull, where the withdrawal backlog in June was little more than a third of where it is today, according to a report by consulting firm RVK for the Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation.  In one of the more recent redemptions, the board of the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System last month voted to ask for some of its money back from Trumbull.

Some background: started in 1978, Trumbull is one of the oldest and largest real-estate funds. It is known as a core fund, a type that focuses on less risky properties and pursues lower but steadier returns than riskier opportunity funds that aim for annual returns around the midteens. Unlike riskier private-equity style funds, which have stricter rules about investors pulling out money before the end of the fund’s life, most big core funds have open-ended withdrawals and no expiration date.

Trumbull and other core funds performed well after the financial crisis, when investors flocked to safer, more predictable strategies after a number of high-performing but riskier real-estate funds blew up in 2008 and 2009.

In fact, as late as June 2015, Trumbull had a $1.2 billion backlog of funds looking to invest, and no backlog of investors looking to get out, according to a report by consulting firm RVK for the Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation. Core funds “just had incredible market tailwinds,” said Christy Fields, a managing principal at consulting firm Meketa Investment Group, Inc.

But over the past year, real returns have fallen back to their historical average, and now funds which as recently as 5 years ago had a waitlist for investors, are suddenly hurting. And while J.P. Morgan’s Strategic Property Fund and other funds are experiencing outflows, Trumbull has been the hardest hit. It has performed worse than the core-fund benchmark index for 11 of the past 12 quarters, according to a December performance review by the City of Burlington, Vt., Employees Retirement System.

Between June 2018 and June 2019, the fund had a negative net return of 0.63% compared with a positive return of 5.46% for the NCREIF NFI-ODCE index, according to the RVK report for the Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation.

To bolster the fund, UBS brought in Joe Azelby, a former professional football player with the Buffalo Bills and veteran of JPMorgan’s asset-management division and Apollo Global Management. He took over UBS Asset Management’s real-estate operations in March.

Meketa’s Ms. Fields said some core funds were losing investors in part because of their exposure to the struggling retail sector.

But the biggest culprit for the fund’s woes: Amazon, which has put countless bricks and mortar retailers out of business, and converted many of America’s malls into ghost towns. Trumbull owns across the U.S., many of them acquired when the outlook for the retail sector looked less dire, property records show. The mall sector is struggling with store closures as online retail expands its market share. These properties still account for nearly 20% of Trumbull’s assets, slightly above the industry average.

One of its largest malls, the Galleria Dallas, is expected to lose one of its department stores, Belk, in late March, according to the company. The fund plans to redevelop some malls in a bid to make them more profitable and sell others, according to a person familiar with the matter. At the CambridgeSide mall in Cambridge, Mass., UBS plans to convert some retail space into offices.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/SYRIA//RUSSIA

Turkey deploys hundred of tanks and provides considerable commandos to Idlib  as they try and solidify their hold on northern Syria

(zerohedge)

Turkey Deploys Hundreds Of Tanks, APCs And Commandos To Idlib; Attacks Syrian Army

With the geopolitical situation now firmly on the backburner, we remind readers that the last time we checked into the flurry of recent events in Syria over the weekend, we found that the Syrian Army was making major gains inside Idlib in a military offensive condemned by Turkey and the United States, capturing the key town of Saraqib from al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Amid the military advance, in the latest embarrassment to the US State Department, the Syrian and Russian governments said they’ve recovered proof of US support for the anti-Assad al-Qaeda insurgent terrorists, publishing photographs of crates of weapons and supplies to state-run SANA.

In any case, the growing feud between Russia and Turkey over control of Syria last remaining rebel holdout in Idlib province escalated overnight, and as Bloomberg reports, Turkey sent hundreds of tanks, armored personnel carriers and commandos to the Syrian province of Idlib as preparations continue for a likely attempt to break the siege of some of its outposts by Bashar al-Assad’s forces.

 

Turkish military convoy; photo: Reuters 

The massive buildup over the weekend included the deployment of howitzers, multiple-rocket launchers, ambulances and trucks loaded with munitions, according to Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency.

Meanwhile, Turkey resumed talks with a Russian delegation in Ankara on Monday after failure to reach an agreement on Idlib on Saturday, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, adding that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin may meet if no deal can be reached

Turkey dramatically reinforced its forces across the border since Syrian troops killed five Turkish soldiers and a civilian in Idlib on Feb. 3 as they closed in on the country’s last major rebel holdout.

“Five of our troops were killed and five others were injured in the shelling by the Syrian regime,” the Turkish Defense Ministry said on Monday, adding that “return fire was opened.”

It wasn’t the first shelling incident between Turkish and Syrian forces in Idlib. A week ago, six Turkish troops were killed by Syrian artillery fire in an incident that Russia said was a result of miscommunication. The casualties could have been avoided if Ankara properly notified Damascus that it was moving troops in a border area where Damascus was holding an anti-terrorist operation at the time, Moscow said.

Turkey’s Daily Sabah reported that in response to the alleged death of Turkish soldiers, 115 regime targets have been struck, 101 regime soldiers have been neutralized (i.e. killed), and 3 tanks and 2 mortars have been destroyed, as the conflict is rapidly devolving into an all out war between Syria and Turkey.

DAILY SABAH

@DailySabah

LATEST — Ministry of National Defense on Assad regime’s attack that left 5 Turkish soldiers killed:

• 115 regime targets have been struck
• 101 regime soldiers have been neutralized
• 3 tanks and 2 mortars have been destroyed
• The targets are continuing to be struck

View image on Twitter

Turkey also called on Moscow to put pressure on Damascus to halt its offensive in Idlib. Meanwhile, Syria’s government has been using Russian air support to vanquish onetime al-Qaeda affiliates and Turkey-backed rebels in the province.

Erdogan last week threatened to use force to break the siege of military outposts in Idlib unless Syrian forces withdraw before the end of February. At least three of 12 Turkish outposts were confirmed to be cut off by Syrian forces in the area.

 

Turkish military convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles near the city of Idlib on Feb. 8; Photo: AFP/Getty

Feigning humanitarian concern, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar told Hurriuet newspaper that Turkey’s main goal was “to prevent a refugee exodus and humanitarian drama” adding that “we’re trying to reach a cease-fire and stop the bloodshed.” However, he then made it quickly clear that the fight over northern Syria is all about strategic positioning, noting that if the violation of the Sochi and Astana agreements, which were signed by Turkey, Russia and Iran to curtail fighting in northern Syria, “continued, then we have plans B and C,” Akar said. “We keep telling them not to force us” to implement those plans.

Ankara was expected to use its influence on anti-government militants to prevent fighting with Damascus troops in order to create the basis for a peaceful resolution. However, jihadist groups in Idlib continue hostile activities, with Russia saying there were several thousand attacks in the last two months alone, in which hundreds of Syrian troops and civilians died.

END

TURKEY/SYRIA

As promised, tensions are escalating with Turkey’s presence in Idlib province

(zerohedge)

 

6.Global Issues

AFRICA/CORONAVIRUS

Africa has recorded no cases simply because they had no kits to which to test with

(zerohedge)

“We’re Definitely Not Prepared” – African Healthcare Officials Fear Virus Spread

While the African continent continues to battle plagues of locust and food shortages, an even bigger worry is looming on the horizon, that some of the Chinese workers have carried the virus to Ethiopia or the African countries they work in, and will those countries be able to contain it while they can, while the numbers are small?

The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.

As we detailed previously, if travel bans to and from the infected parts of China turn out to have been justified then one country in particular may be worth watching, Ethiopia.  Ethiopia’s Bole International airport is the main African gateway to and from China. On average 1500 passengers per day arrive from China every day.  Ethiopia scans them all for symptoms which essentially means taking their temperature.

Many of those passengers then fly on to other parts of Africa where Chinese companies are doing business. These are 2018 figures courtesy of Brookings.

Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

To date no infections on the continent of Africa have been reported. Why?

Only today, February 7, did anyone on the continent actually get a testing kits to look for infected people.

What will this number be in two weeks? https://twitter.com/ncovperspectiv1/status/1225682760125169664 

nCoV Perspective@nCoVPerspectiv1

1. Today is a huge day for #Africa in the fight against the #coronavirus. More than half a billion people across 25 countries, will for the first time have access to #ncov2019 testing kits. We have compiled a list of the 25 countries from the @WHO map below… #coronavirusafrica

View image on Twitter

Unfortunately, as AP reports, it does not appear so… at least yet. Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.

But the effort has been complicated by a critical shortage of testing kits and numerous illnesses that display symptoms similar to the flu-like virus.

“The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.

Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.

“We’re definitely not prepared. If we had a couple of cases, it would spread very quickly,” physiotherapist Fundi Sinkala said.

“We’re doing the best we can with what resources we have.”

The Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital, or Sinozam, a low-slung facility near the city’s train station, has taken some precautions, including checking patient temperatures with infrared thermometers and establishing isolation areas.

Without testing, officials are “just relying on the symptoms” and whether they persist.

“But from what we are learning right now, some people show hardly any symptoms at all,” physiotherapist Fundi Sinkala said, calling that the hospital’s biggest worry.

Chinese embassies in Zambia and elsewhere in Africa have been unusually outspoken, giving news conferences and television interviews to discuss their response to the outbreak. Embassies require arriving Chinese citizens to declare where they have been in China. They also urge citizens to voluntarily isolate themselves for 14 days.

“We are now practicing hygiene, even in the mines,” said the Kitwe-based president of the Mine Workers Union of Zambia, Joseph Chewe.

“Any report of a person with coronavirus here will be very disastrous.”

The WHO says countries are obligated to inform it of any confirmed cases and are requested to report suspected cases as well. The WHO chief has publicly urged countries to share information. So far, African countries appear to be complying, a WHO adviser on health security, Dr. Ambrose Talisuna, told reporters.

END

Westerdam Cruise liner/Coronavirus

We have have commentary that 5 countries refuse to let the Westerdam dock even though no Coronovirus has been detected on any of the passengers.

(zerohedge)

Cruise Ship With 0 Coronavirus Cases Refused Entry By 5th Country As Supplies Run Low

Thailand became the fifth country to refuse entry to the cruise ship Westerdam, which is run by Carnival Cruise, the same company that runs the ‘Diamond Princess’, the ship that is currently host to the largest nCoV outbreak outside mainland China.

The ship’s beleaguered passengers and crew felt a glimmer of hope yesterday when the ship’s captain announced that a port in Bangkok had offered safe harbor, after ports in Hong Kong, the Philippines and Taiwan turned the ship away. Guam has also refused the ship.

And now, the ship’s 2,257 passengers and crew are in limbo once again, as provisions run down to their last few days.

Thai Deputy Transport Minister Atirat Ratanasate said in a Facebook post the country would “gladly help providing fuel, medicine and food,” although the ship is not allowed to dock in the country’s port, Reuters reports.

Fearing that some passengers aboard the Westerdam may be infected with the deadly new coronavirus, Thailand’s Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said Tuesday in a Facebook post that authorities have decided not to let them disembark. Thailand has one of the highest infection rates in Asia outside China, according to the Hill.

The WHO has offered a potential lifeline by offering to send medical personnel aboard the ship to conduct tests. Though, as we’ve repeatedly seen in recent days, no test is 100% positive, and some patients in the US, Japan and elsewhere have been allowed to proceed only to develop symptoms a few days later.

The WHO said Thai officials have indicated that if the ship enters the country’s waters, “authorities may seek to board the ship to determine the health status of passengers and crew, to determine whether they would be allowed to eventually disembark in Thailand,” according to a statement. The ship is currently off the southern coast of Vietnam, according to the WHO and Bloomberg data.

The ship is operated by the Holland America Line, which is owned by Miami-based Carnival.

The ship was sailing west roughly 60 miles off the southern coast of Vietnam on Tuesday morning, according to data from the Marine Traffic ship tracking website.

Governments around the world have stepped up travel restrictions, including bans on cruise ships arriving and leaving, over the past two weeks. Many countries and territories, including the US, have strictly limited the ability of Chinese people to enter their countries until the outbreak subsides.

One passenger who spoke to Bloomberg described the intense disappointment he felt when he learned Thailand had refused entry.

On board the Westerdam, passenger Stephen Hansen said he was relieved when travelers were initially told Monday that they would be allowed to disembark in Thailand. Guests scrambled to rebook flights home and everyone had their temperatures taken. By Tuesday morning, they learned from media reports that Thailand had refused the ship.

“To have that snatched away at the last minute with no other solution at hand was very upsetting,” said Hansen, who is traveling with his wife. “So we are back in limbo again.”

How many more countries will refuse the ship entry until it winds up stranded in the middle of the ocean with no food and no fuel? And once that happens, how much longer until things go all ‘Lord of the Flies’

end

7.  OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0910 DOWN .0001 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.85 UP 0.085 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2929   UP   0.0014  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3294 DOWN .0024 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 1 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0910 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 11.19 POINTS OR 0.39% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP  302.54 POINTS OR 1.26%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,61%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 342.54 POINTS OR 1.26%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.19 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 61% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 142.00  POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1569.60

silver:$17.72-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.59% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.05 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.82 UP 2 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.31% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.07%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.27%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.97 UP 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 70 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.39% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.36% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0916  UP     .0005 or 5 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.81 UP .042 OR YEN DOWN 4  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2942 UP .0027 POUND UP 27  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 17 basis points to 1.3300

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9660    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.96703  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0262 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.07%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.58 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.05 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.77 DOWN 7  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 52.56  OR  0.71%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 113.81 POINTS OR .99%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 39.09 POINTS 0.65%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 66.60 POINTS or 0.68%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 181.43 POINTS OR 0.74%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 49.95 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 54.15 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.41  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.71 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 71 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.39 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  49.77//

 

 

BRENT :  54.04

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.59..plus 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.05..plus one basis point..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0919 ( UP 9   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.77 UP .020 (YEN DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.74 DOWN 9 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2955 UP 40  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0163

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.36   UP 0.75 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 75 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3291 UP 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9660  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9721 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.39%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 0.48 POINTS OR 0.00%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 10.55 POINTS OR 0.11%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.20 CLOSED UP .16

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.713%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Pump’n’Dump After FTC Spoils The MAGA Party

Having ignored the rapidly escalating global issues surrounding the Covid-19 virus (and the bond, FX, and commodity markets’ less sanguine view), today saw Fed Chair Powell offer nothing uber-dovish to ignite momentum during his annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, Boeing’s first Zero orders January since 1962, the worst drop in job openings… ever, and the FTX launching a probe into the mega-tech MAGA stocks. And stocks still never really gave a shit… S&P and Nasdaq at new record high, Dow unch.

Spot the odd market out…

Source: Bloomberg

“This is madness”

China went nowhere overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks surged…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US MAGA stocks rolled over notably after the FTC headlines (this is the first drop in the last 8 days)…

Source: Bloomberg

With Facebook hardest hit but the drop in MSFT was the biggest since August 23rd…

Source: Bloomberg

Second day in a row of an opening short squeeze… again…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX continues to refuse to play along with stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields rose – somewhat illiquidly – 1-2bps across the curve, lifting rates back top unch on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve un-inverted… barely…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar drifted lower for the first time in 5 days…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied today led by Ethereum…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin spiked back above $10,000 (the highest since Sept 15th)…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper and Crude managed gains today (but WTI remains lower on the week) as PMs limped lower…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude hardly looked positive despite a green day for a change (ahead of tonight’s API data), falling back below $50…

Finally, the Y2K analog continues to hold for Nasdaq as the end of The Fed’s emergency liquidity supply looms…

Source: Bloomberg

Different this time though for sure!

The gap between liquidity and stocks is getting wide again…

Source: Bloomberg

Or maybe stocks are rallying on this…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

This is telling: labour markets have just hit a brick wall as job opening disappear. It posted its biggest two month drop in history

(zerohedge)

 Market Hits A Brick Wall: Job Openings Post Biggest Two-Month Drop In History 

While one wouldn’t know it by looking at the BLS’ jobs report, which in January showed that a whopping 225K jobs were added, the JOLTS report issued moments ago showed a vastly different picture, one which if one didn’t know better would suggest that the US labor market hit a brick wall. Why? Because according to JOLTS, traditionally Janet Yellen’s favorite labor market report, job openings in December plunged by a whopping 354K, from an downward revised 6.787MM to 6.423MM, the lowest monthly total since December 2017…

… which when combined with last month’s huge 574K drop in job openings, brings the two-month drop to a record 938K in the last two months of 2019, and suggests that even as the BLS indicates the jobs market is humming along, employers are retrenching and pulled almost 1 million jobs-wanted postings in November and December.

Is it possible that the BLS was simply caught fabricating data? Certainly: as a reminder, it was back in September 2013 that we caught the BLS lying about labor market data precisely when looking at the JOLTS report, although it is just as likely that after overrepresenting the strength of the labor market for the past two years, the BLS decided to finally catch down to reality at the end of 2019.

Commenting on the data, the BLS said that the number of job openings decreased for total private (-332,000) and the largest decreases for job openings were in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-88,000), real estate and rental and leasing (-34,000), and educational services (-34,000). The number of job openings fell in the South region

That said, there was a silver lining to today’s report: even at 6.4MM job openings this was still well above the total number of unemployed workers which in January was 5.9 million; and while December was the 22nd consecutive month in which job openings surpassed unemployed workers, the difference between the two series has shrunk to the lowest since March 2018.

Meanwhile, as job openings plunged, the number of Americans quitting their jobs has been largely unchanged for the past year, having plateaued at just around 3.5 million (the number dropped by 80K in December).

That said, there was some good news: the number of hires in December rose by 80K, and remains slightly above where the cumulative change in payrolls over the past 12 months suggests it should be.

Still, despite this offset, the record two-month plunge in job openings is a very loud, and very clear signal that something is breaking in the labor market, and if this trend continues, then the next logical escalation is a surge in layoffs as US employers retrench and force their existing workers to boost their productivity further.

Needless to say, a nearly 1 million drop in job openings in two months is not something one would see if the economy was firing on all cylinders as the stock market represents every single day.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

We now have our third consecutive oversubscribed term repo which surely indicates liquidity shortage in the financial markets and it is not easing

(zerohedge)

Third Consecutive Oversubscribed Term-Repo Indicates Liquidity Shortage Not Easing

The repo market was supposed to be fixed in September; then the year-end liquidity flood was supposed to definitely fix the repo market. Well, it is now mid-February and moments ago the Fed just reported it conducted the third oversubscribed term-repo operation as the liquidity shortage among dealers appears to persist!

Dealers submitted $40.4BN in Treasurys (at a 1.58% stop out) and $13.25BN in MBS (at a 1.60% stop out) for a total of $53.65 of which $30BN was accepted.

This means that for the third consecutive operation, demand for the Fed’s repo was oversubscribed at a rate not seen since the start of the repo crisis.

Ominously, the ongoing substantial overdemand for term repo (which in February was cut by $5BN from $35BN to $30BN) means that the liquidity crisis that continues to percolate just below the surface of the market and has clogged up the critical plumbing within the US financial system, is getting worse, not better, and today’s massive oversubscription indicates that one or more entities continues to face a dire shortage of reserves, i.e., cash.

end

Gilead drug’s Remdesivir is working. It cured the USA patient who contracted the coronavirus.

Hoft/Gateway Pundit

DEVELOPING: Three Hopeful Treatments for Coronavirus – One Treatment Using Anti-Viral Drug Remdesivir Shows Results within Hours! (VIDEO)

The first person in the US to catch the coronavirus was successfully treated in Washington state and returned home late last week.

Dr. George Diaz, a section chief for infectious diseases at Providence Regional Medical Center Everett joined Arthel Neville on FOX News on Sunday morning to discuss the successful treatment of the center’s coronavirus patient.  Dr. Diaz told FOX News

“About a week into his course he got worse developed pneumonia. At that point given the reports we had gotten out of China… At that point we elected to give him… the experimental Remdesivir, antiviral medication. And within 24 hours he improved significantly. This was quite encouraging and he improved and thereafter remained without fever and felt much better. Over the next few days he improved to where we thought he could be discharged at home under the care of the local health district.”

Dr. Diaz then added that authorities in China and have recently opened a large clinical trial of Chinese patients looking at those with severe disease as well as those with mild to moderate disease.

On Monday Dr. Siegel confirmed that the Remdesivir treatment shows tremendous promise and the results were noticed within hours. Dr. Siegel also mentioned two other treatments that are showing promise. In Thailand they are showing an HIV drug with a flu drug and that is showing promise. And a third treatment is the use of antibodies to target the virus.

The Washington state treatment with the Anti-viral Drug Remdesivir shows particular promise.

This is very good news for China and the global community.

Via Lou Dobbs Tonight:

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Trump to clean house at the NSC of huge numbers of Obama holdovers

(zerohedge)

Trump Cleans House At NSC: Vindmans Were Tip Of Iceberg As 70 Obama Holdovers Axed

President Trump has reportedly cleaned house at the National Security Council – firing 70 Obama-era holdovers, according to the Washington Examiner.

Officials confirmed that Trump and national security adviser Robert O’Brien have cut 70 positions inherited from former President Barack Obama, who had fattened the staff to 200.

Many were loaners from other agencies and have been sent back. Others left government work.

Trump was notably impeached by the House and acquitted by the Senate after a NSC ‘whistleblower’ on loan from the CIA lodged a complaint after approaching the office of House Intel Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-CA), who guided him to a Democratic operative attorney (who loves going to Disneyland alone and once bragged about getting security clearances for ‘guys with child porn issues‘).

 

We digress.

Last week, anti-Trump impeachment witness Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman and his twin brother Yevgeny were fired from the NSC and escorted out of the White House by security. While critics have called the move beyond the pale, President Trump noted Alexander Vindman’s ‘horrendous report’ given to him by his supervisor.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Fake News @CNN & MSDNC keep talking about “Lt. Col.” Vindman as though I should think only how wonderful he was. Actually, I don’t know him, never spoke to him, or met him (I don’t believe!) but, he was very insubordinate, reported contents of my “perfect” calls incorrectly, &…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….was given a horrendous report by his superior, the man he reported to, who publicly stated that Vindman had problems with judgement, adhering to the chain of command and leaking information. In other words, “OUT”.

“This month, we will complete the right-sizing goal Ambassador O’Brien outlined in October, and in fact, may exceed that target by drawing down even more positions,” said NSC senior director for senior communications John Ullyot, in a statement to Secrets.

Alexander Vindman was reassigned to the Department of the Army, and will attend the US Army War College in Carlisle. No word on his twin.

END

Judge again postpones Flynn sentencing.  And those criminal democrats still are roaming free?

(Turley)

Judge Postpones Flynn Sentencing… Again

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Justice Department has secured yet another postponement of sentencing for former national security adviser Michael Flynn. Even though the Justice Department recently dropped its demand for jail time, it appears to be continuing its scorched Earth campaign against Flynn.

It is demanding that Flynn waive attorney-client privilege with his prior law firm to allow them to explore his claims of ineffective counsel. Given the dropping of a demand for jail time, the requested additional delay seems gratuitous and retaliatory. Nevertheless, Judge Emmet Sullivan granted the indefinite postponement.

The Flynn case remains a troubling matter for those who have followed the Russian investigation. He pleaded guilty to a false statement that seems relatively minor in comparison to false statements made by Justice officials like Andrew McCabe or leaks by figures like James Comey. Some of us have questioned the case for years. Prosecutors threatened to go after Flynn’s son and to bankrupt him if he continuing to assert his innocence. 

Flynn broke with his prior lawyers and accused them of giving him poor advice. He now maintains that he did not lie to two FBI agents in 2017. His recent filings slam the process and the charges. He wrote:

“One of the ways a person becomes a 3-star general is by being a good soldier, taking orders, being part of a team, and trusting the people who provide information and support. Lori and I trusted Mr. Kelner and Mr. Anthony to guide us through the most stressful experience in our lives, in a completely incomprehensible situation. I have never felt more powerless.

The extreme demands and delays in the case is at odds with the light sentences received by individuals sentenced as part of the Russian investigation. He was also the subject of a bizarre hearing with Judge Emmet Sullivan where he was accused of things outside of his charges or the record.

Flynn was ready to be sentenced but, because he raised ineffective counsel, the Justice Department wants to speak with his former counsel at Covington & Burling:

“The government requests that the Court suspend the current briefing schedule concerning the defendant’s [motion] until such time as the government has been able to confer with Covington regarding the information it seeks . . . While Covington has indicated a willingness to comply with this request, it has understandably declined to do so in the absence of a Court order confirming the waiver of attorney-client privilege.”

Judge Sullivan has already rejected Flynn’s claim that he was coerced into his plea agreement. Now Flynn is being left to twist in the wind after years of financially and emotionally draining litigation. It is hard to look that this case and not conclude that the Justice Department wants to hoist Flynn like a wretch for all to see. The message seems to be, if you try to rescind a plea agreement, you will be left to die from exposure of years of punishing trial and appellate practice.

end
Insane!  this whole process.  The lead prosecutor resigns immediately after the Dept of Justice rejects his absurd sentencing proposal
(zerohedge)

Roger Stone Prosecutor Resigns ‘Immediately’ After DOJ Rejects Absurd Sentencing Proposal

The prosecutor who recommended that Trump confidant Roger Stone receive up to nine years in prison has resigned, effective immediately – after reports have emerged that his office misled the DOJ over the proposal, which reportedly ‘shocked’ DOJ officials.

Prosecutor Aaron Zelinsky gave no details in a Tuesday letter submitted in Stone’s case, however a footnote reads that it was “effective immediately.”

Brad Heath

@bradheath

Aaron Zelinsky, who had been a prosecutor in the special counsel’s office, has moved to withdraw from Roger Stone’s case.

View image on Twitter

Brad Heath

@bradheath

The notice doesn’t give a reason – it cites to a local court rule that requires the U.S. government to designate a DOJ attorney who will appear on behalf of the government. Zelinsky signed the withdraw notice.

View image on Twitter
86 people are talking about this

Brad Heath

@bradheath

Gotta read the footnotes. Zelinsky, the former Mueller prosecutor still helping with the Stone case, resigned from DOJ “effective immediately.”

View image on Twitter
311 people are talking about this

Earlier Tuesday, AP reported that the Justice Department would “take the extraordinary step of lowering the recommended prison time for Roger Stone, an ally of President Donald Trump, a federal official said Tuesday.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

This is a horrible and very unfair situation. The real crimes were on the other side, as nothing happens to them. Cannot allow this miscarriage of justice! https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1227016256227807232 

Chuck Ross

@ChuckRossDC

Prosecutors recommend up to NINE YEARS in prison for Roger Stone.

They call foreign election interference a “deadly adversary” even though Stone was never accused of working with Russians or WikiLeaks. https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/10/prosecutors-nine-years-prison-roger-stone/ 

43.1K people are talking about this

Hours later, The Federalist‘s Sean Davis reported that federal prosecutors were reportedly blindsided by the recommendation, which a Fox News source said the DOJ felt was “extreme, excessive, and grossly disproportionate” to Stone’s crimes.

“The Department was shocked to see the sentencing recommendation in the filing in the Stone case last night,” the DOJ official reportedly told Fox. “The sentencing recommendation was not what had been briefed to the Department.”

The report from Fox News suggested that DOJ was in the process of rescinding the rogue prosecutors’ recommendation. –The Federalist

What’s more, “Sources told The Federalist that Timothy Shea, who was recently appointed to take over as the top federal prosecutor in D.C. earlier this month, was bullied into agreeing to the sentence recommendation by Adam Jed and Aaron Zelinsky, who were originally tapped by Mueller to investigate whether Donald Trump treasonously colluded with the Russian government to steal the 2016 election from Hillary Clinton.”

Chuck Ross

@ChuckRossDC

To put it in perspective: The FBI/special counsel/Democrats initially suspected that Trump associates actively conspired with Russia & WikiLeaks.

At the end, all they found was that Roger Stone committed process crimes related to his *conversations* about (not with) WikiLeaks.

274 people are talking about this

News of the reversal has absolutely triggered the left, with former DOJ counterintelligence chief David Laufman calling it a “break-glass-in-case-of-fire moment.”

Rachel Maddow MSNBC

@maddow

Former counterintelligence chief at DOJ:

“We are now at a break-glass-in-case-of-fire moment for the Justice Department” https://twitter.com/davidlaufmanlaw/status/1227299216332075008 

David Laufman@DavidLaufmanLaw

A shocking, cram-down political intervention in the criminal justice process. We are now truly at a break-glass-in-case-of-fire moment for the Justice Dept. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/justice-dept-to-reduce-sentencing-recommendation-for-trump-associate-roger-stone-official-says-after-president-calls-it-unfair/2020/02/11/ad81fd36-4cf0-11ea-bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Trump Budget [$4.8T] Proposes Deep Domestic Cuts, $30 Trillion in Debt [over a decade]

Defense spending — $740.5 billion in the next fiscal year — including the creation of Space Force…

stringent new work requirements for safety net programs…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-09/trump-s-4-8-billion-budget-to-boost-pentagon-cut-safety-net

Coronavirus cases spreading outside China ‘could be the spark’ that becomes ‘bigger fire,’ WHO says  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/coronavirus-cases-outside-china-could-be-the-spark-that-becomes-bigger-fire-who.html

Barr announces sweeping new sanctions, ‘significant escalation’ against left-wing sanctuary cities

Charging that so-called “sanctuary” cities that protect illegal immigrants are jeopardizing domestic security, Attorney General Bill Barr announced a slew of additional sanctions that he called a “significant escalation” against left-wing local and state governments that obstruct the “lawful functioning of our nation’s immigration system.”…

    “The department is filing a complaint against the State of New Jersey seeking declaratory and injunctive relief against its laws that forbid state and local law enforcement from sharing vital information about criminal aliens with DHS,” Barr said…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/barr-announces-new-sanctuary-policies

 

Now that impeachment is over, Barr is moving to ENFORCE existing laws that leftists have ignored.

 

Speaking at a US Governors Business soiree yesterday, Trump claimed that Russia procured US hypersonic missile technology “supposedly from plans from the Obama Administration…”

https://twitter.com/cjtruth/status/1226947840171102208

 

Giuliani Giving Ukraine Data to Justice Department, Barr Says

“The DOJ has the obligation to have an open door to anybody who wishes to provide us information that they think is relevant,” Barr told reporters during a news conference in Washington. “We have to be very careful with respect to any information coming from Ukraine. There are a lot of agendas in the Ukraine, there are a lot of cross-currents and we can’t take anything we receive from the Ukraine at face value.”…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/giuliani-giving-ukraine-data-to-justice-department-barr-says

 

@CBS_Herridge: @LindseyGrahamSC tells CBS News that he plans to deliver his FISA witness list to DOJ as early as this week. Graham says he is moving “methodically” adding he hopes to begin private depositions, and public hearings end of the month, early March

 

Feds seek delay in Michael Flynn case – The new filings say Flynn’s claims that he received ineffective assistance from his former lawyers at the premier D.C. law firm Covington & Burling will require information and perhaps testimony from those attorneys…

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/02/09/feds-seek-delay-michael-flynn-case-112761

 

@realDonaldTrump: Because of how badly they did with the Impeachment Hoax, AOC will primary Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, and win, and Jerry Nadler has a good chance of losing to his far left primary opponent! It is all getting quite interesting. Pelosi will lose the House, AGAIN! My poll numbers great.

Rev Jesse Jackson Sr @RevJJackson: @BernieSanders won the Iowa Caucus by 6,000 votes more than @PeteButtigieg; 10,000 more than @ewarren & 17,000 more than @JoeBiden; and did not get the most delegates. Go figure. [Due to his record as South Band Mayor, Buttigieg has a problem with many blacks]

@johncardillo:83% of Americans are non-supervisory workers.  64% of Americans don’t have a college degree.  But the left keeps on insulting them then wonders why they lose.

 

We noted during the 2016 Campaign that most polls greatly oversampled college-educated voters.

The NYT’s @koblin:The Oscars sets a new record low: 23.6 million tuned in last night, a 20 percent drop versus last year (and down from the 2018 record low of 26.5 million)

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

 

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