FEB 19//GOLD UP $8.25 TO $1608.70//SILVER UP 23 CENTS TO $18.41//HUGE QUEUE JUMP IN GOLD LAST NIGHT//HUGE INCREASE IN COMEX GOLD AND HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS//FOMC MINUTES CLAIM FED INTENDS TO TAPER PURCHASES OF T BILLS IN THE REPO MESS (NOT A CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING)/ MORE CORONAVIRUS COMMENTARIES/MORE SWAMP STORES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1608.70 UP $8.25    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

Silver:$18.41 UP 23 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

GOLD: 1611.60

 

SILVER: 18.43

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 58/66

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,600.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/18/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 02/20/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 5
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 7
661 C JP MORGAN 58
685 C RJ OBRIEN 23
690 C ABN AMRO 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 27
880 C CITIGROUP 1
905 C ADM 4
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 66 66
MONTH TO DATE: 7,573

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 66 NOTICE(S) FOR 6600 OZ (0.2052 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7573 NOTICES FOR 757,300 OZ  (23.555 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEB

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 234 for 1,170,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10147. DOWN 78 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $9898 DOWN 685 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 7043 CONTRACTS FROM 231,097 UP TO 238,140 WITH OUR STRONG 42 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD VERY STRONG  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  4364 AND MAY: 155 AND JULY: 120 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  4639 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4639 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4639 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 23.195 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 42 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.170    MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 42 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 11,682 CONTRACTS. OR 58.41 MILLION OZ…..   WE HAD NO LONG LIQUIDATION AND WE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING, JUST A STRONG ACCUMULATION OF SILVER LONG CONTRACTS ENTERING BOTH EXCHANGES.

 

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION AND THAT EXPLAINS THE RISE IN COMEX OI DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

17,297 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 17,297 CONTRACTS) OR 86.49 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1150 CONTRACTS OR 5.753 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 86.49 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.35% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          268.10 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     86.49 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6980, WITH THE STRONG 42 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4639 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  SIZED:  11,619 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE)

i.e 4639 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 6,980 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A STRONG 42 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.18 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.190 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 170% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  NIL OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.170 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 26,929 CONTRACTS TO 715,317 AND MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO  OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG ADVANCE OF $17.00 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE, FOR SURE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION.  TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S OUR BANKER FRIENDS BASICALLY COULD NOT FLEECE ANY LONGS FROM ANY GOLD ARENA AND THUS WE HAD OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES!  

 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 14,038 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  0 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 14,038; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 14,038.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 716,766,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 40,967 CONTRACTS: 26,929 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 14,038 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 40,967 CONTRACTS OR 4,096,700 OZ OR 127.42 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $17.00 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 127.42  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (GAIN $17.00). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AGAIN AS WE HAD  AN ATMOSPHERIC INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (14,038) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC GAIN IN COMEX OI.(26,929):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  42,408 CONTRACTS

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 109,635 CONTRACTS OR 10,963,500 oz OR 341.01 TONNES (12 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9136 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 341.01 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 341.01/3550 x 100% TONNES =9.60% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE:    911.20  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            341.01  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 28,370 WITH THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK TUESDAY($17.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 14,038 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 14,038 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 40,967 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

14038 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  26,929 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 127.42 TONNES). AND THIS INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.00 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD UP $8.25  TODAY

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

 

FEB 19/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 929.84 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

FEB 19/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 6980 CONTRACTS FROM 231,140 UP TO 238,077 AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

EFP ISSUANCE 4639

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  4364:  AND MAY: 155; JULY: 120 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4639 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 6980 CONTRACTS TO THE 4639 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 11,619 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 58.41 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.70 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE STRONG  42 CENT RISE IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 4639 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.57 POINTS OR 0.32%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.61 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed UP 206.90 POINTS OR 0.89%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .40%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9942 /Oil UP TO 52.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.46 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9942 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9998 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/CORONAVIRUS

Japan must be getting nervous with respect to the virus:  they have ordered thousands to work form home as experts claim they are on the cusp of a large outbreak

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/CAR SUBSIDIES

With China’s economy faltering badly by day, the POBC is starting to throw lots of money into the economy..but that will not help as nobody is going to work. Today they began subsidizing car purchases

(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/USA/SUPPLY CHAIN

Here is a list of USA firms that will be at risk for not obtaining parts from China

(zerohedge)

ii b) CHINA/USA

the war with China escalates as the uSA has now designating 5 Chinese state media outlets as “foreign missions” which will give the USA more control over what they say

(zerohedge)

iii)HONG KONG

Foreigners are fleeing Hong Kong in huge numbers due to the protests and the coronavirus

(zerohedge

iv))CHINA/NHA

This is big: China is now set to nationalize the very big NHA with its tentacles everywhere.  The black swan event of the coronavirus did them in
(zerohedge)

v)China/USA Medical Supplies

Shortages are already occurring: the FDA is bracing for drug and medical supply shortages form China
(zerohedge)

vi)CHINA/WUHAN

The truth as to what is going on inside the epicentre of the virus; Wuhan

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU CAR REGISTRATIONS

EU car registrations are plunging and this is pre coronavirus

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)LIBYA/TURKEY

Turkey is over its head in its fight with UN backed forces in Libya.  The strong LNA force behind USA backed Hafter is blockading all ports except Tripoli.  Turkey tried to send arms into Libya but Hafter attacked a Turkish ship carrying those arms.

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN/CORONAVIRUS

This is one country that can ill afford to have the coronavirus.  Iran just got the awful news that 2 patients have the confirmed virus.  Also the Japanese cruiseliner announces another 79 cases of the coronavirus.  They are making an awful mistake by ending the quarantine. There is no way that air passengers will be able to escape the virus on their way home to the uSA
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Please note the chart with the Dow rising against falling forward 12 month earnings/

Market euphoria and yet a huge global slowdown!

(Daniel Lacalle)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

The truth behind that huge spike in UK gold exports we reported on last weeek

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

USA producer prices rise at the fastest pace and this is a forerunner for real price inflation

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Should be lots of fun tonight as Bloomberg debates in the Nevada primaries.

(courtesy zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN UNBELIEVABLE SIZED 26,929 CONTRACTS TO 715,317 MOVING MUCH CLOSER  TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GAIN IN OI WAS SET WITH A STRONG GAIN OF $6.80 IN GOLD PRICING //TUESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). ALSO WE HAD  ANOTHER STRONG EFP ISSUANCE, SO WE HAD ANOTHER FAILED ATTEMPT AT BANKER SHORT COVERING ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE HUGELY IN OPEN INTEREST..

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 14,038 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 14,038,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 14038 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN UNBELIEVABLE ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 40,967 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 14,038 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GIGANTIC SIZED 26,929 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AND COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. 

 

THE BANKERS WERUNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $17.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ROSE BY AN UNBELIEVABLY  SIZED 40,967 CONTRACTS ….(127.42 TONNES)

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  40,967 CONTRACTS OR 4,096,700 OZ OR 127.42 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  715,317 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 71.53 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,230 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,230/2200 OR 101.30% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 6980 CONTRACTS FROM 231,097 UP TO 238,077 (AND MUCH CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR HUGE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 42 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/TUESDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

FEB IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 0 CONTRACTS SHOWING A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS//TUESDAY TRADING. WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 0 CONTRACT OR NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH THEY NEGATED A FIAT BONUS

 

 

March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 2125 contracts  DOWN TO 109,213

APRIL saw a gain of 285 contracts up to 442.

MAY had a good 5402 gain in oi to stand at 86,480.

 

 

 

We, today, had  0 notice(s)  for NIL, OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 283,510 contracts??  low volume/

.   

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  440,888 contracts//low volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

 

FEB 19/2020

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

11,836.813 OZ

JPM

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
66 notice(s)
 6600 OZ
(0.2052 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
476 contracts
(47600 oz)
1.488 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7573 notices
757300 OZ
23.555 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had  0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

ii) Into JPMorgan:  11,836.813 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  11,836.813 oz  oz

 

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  1

i) out of Delaware: 2300.000 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

 

 

 

 

The front month of February saw its open interest fall by 157 contracts down to 542 contracts.  We have 269 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED 112 contracts or an additional 11,200 oz will stand for delivery here and THUS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH into London based forwards and thus negate a fiat bonus. The March non active contract month saw its OI RISE by 155 contracts UP to 28799.  The big April contract month saw its OI RISE by 19,845 contracts UP to 529,902.

 

We had 66 notices filed today for 6600 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 66 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 58 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7573) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (542 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (66 x 100 oz per contract) equals 804,900 OZ OR 25.035 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (7573 x 100 oz)  + (542)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (66 x 100 oz )which equals 804,900 oz standing OR 25.035 in this  active delivery month of FEB. which is a still a great opening for gold // amount standing.

 

We GAINED 112 contracts or 11,200 oz REFUSED TO LEAVE USA shores to visit the Queen in London.  They REFUSED TO ACCEPT A London based gold forwards as well as NEGATING a fiat bonus

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 38.458 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.035 tonnes

 

total: 155.3803 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 23.7447 TONNES SETTLED (includes the 1.4847 tonnes of today)

 

IF WE ADD THE 7 DELIVERY MONTHS: 155.3803  tonnes

 

Thus:

155.3803 tonnes of delivery –

23.7447 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

=131.6356 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 38.458 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,414,951.644 oz or  44.01 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,238,740.2  (38.530 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,238,740.2  (38.538 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,714,991.655 oz 271.07 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 19 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 610,140.272 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
610,140.272 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 234 contracts

1,170,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

i) into Scotia:  600,009.566 oz

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.09% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/321.964 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  154,046.570   oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT: 610,140.272 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 610,140.272  oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) Out of CNT:  600,069.500 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account

 

total dealer silver:  80.313 million

total dealer + customer silver:  321.966 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 234 x 5,000 oz = 1,170,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (0) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 234 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (0)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals 1,170,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

We lost 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards and as such negated a fiat bonus 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 110,854 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 169,760 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 169,760 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 848 million  OZ  1.21% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.51% ((FEB 19/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.74% to NAV FEB 19/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.51%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.97 TRADING 15.52///DISCOUNT 2.81

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 19/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 929.84 tonnes

*IN LAST 764 TRADING DAYS: 7.62 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 664 TRADING DAYS: A NET 159.45. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

 

FEB 19.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

363.433 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.66/ and libor 6 month duration 1.71

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.74%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.77

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.03

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Silver Bullion To $50/oz and When to Sell Gold or Silver

Watch Video Here

◆ Silver bullion is set to outperform gold, other precious metals and the vastly over valued risk assets of stocks and bonds in the coming years

◆ The record nominal high of $50 in 1980 and in 2012 will almost certainly be seen in the next two years

◆ Never miss breaking precious metals news and updates from GoldCore:
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◆ Silver rose 15.5% in 2019 to close just below $18/oz in 2019; a 50% gain in 2020 would take us to $27/oz and an 80% gain the following year would take us to $48.60/oz

◆ Same way you dollar, pound, euro etc cost average to acquire your silver bullion holdings; you should dollar cost average your reduction in allocations in the coming years

◆ It may be prudent to sell some of your holdings at around $48/oz, some at around $90/oz, at around $135/oz etc.

◆ This only applies to those many silver bullion buyers who are overweight and have a large allocation to silver – say over 10% or 20%

◆ Investors with small allocations of closer to 5% should only sell a small amount if the price goes parabolic or if they need the cash in a crisis for day to day expenses or needs

◆All investors should have a core financial insurance allocation to gold and silver coins and bars; Avoid digital gold, platform gold, gold tokens and crypto gold

◆ Popular and liquid bullion formats should be taken possession of and also stored in liquid, secure storage in their own country and at least one other safe jurisdiction

◆ Zurich remains the most liquid and safest places in the world to own gold and silver coins and bars

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold holds above $1,600 on fears over economic impact of virus

Gold tops $1,600 for first time since 2013

Why gold prices topped $1,600 and may soon hit a more than 7-year high

Share buybacks off to worst start in 7 years

Yields fall, 30-year to 2%, as Apple sales warning dents risk appetite

Euro falls towards key $1.08 level, bleak German investor survey piles pressure

Watch Gold Futures – A Run On Bullion Banks May Be Imminent

 

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

18-Feb-20 1588.20 1589.85, 1218.47 1220.37 & 1467.34 1470.77
17-Feb-20 1580.30 1580.80, 1212.41 1215.16 & 1457.04 1458.29
14-Feb-20 1576.35 1581.40, 1209.60 1214.20 & 1453.08 1456.79
13-Feb-20 1575.00 1575.05, 1213.55 1207.59 & 1447.27 1450.94
12-Feb-20 1566.75 1563.70, 1206.55 1206.55 & 1434.83 1434.54
11-Feb-20 1567.70 1570.50, 1212.77 1211.33 & 1436.01 1438.26
10-Feb-20 1574.05 1573.20, 1219.26 1215.93 & 1437.11 1439.64
07-Feb-20 1568.30 1572.65, 1212.45 1214.56 & 1432.33 1433.63

 

 

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The truth behind that huge spike in UK gold exports we reported on last weeek

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs/GATA)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: UK gold export spike is probably just data anomaly

 Section: 

10:52a ET Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Last Friday’s report in The Times of London about a huge spike in British gold exports in November and December —

http://www.gata.org/node/19848

— was probably a “meaningless anomaly” in trade data compiled by the United Kingdom’s Office of National Statistics, Voima Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes today.

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: UK gold export spike is probably just data anomaly

 Section: 

10:52a ET Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Last Friday’s report in The Times of London about a huge spike in British gold exports in November and December —

http://www.gata.org/node/19848

— was probably a “meaningless anomaly” in trade data compiled by the United Kingdom’s Office of National Statistics, Voima Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes today.

Nieuwenhuijs construes the data as suggesting instead that gold imports and exports in the UK in 2019 balanced out.

He concludes: “To me, it looks like ONS made a mistake. But who knows?”

His analysis is headlined “Shining a Light on the Mystery Gold Exports from the UK” and it’s posted at Voima Gold here:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/shining-a-light-on-the-mystery-gold-ex…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9942/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9998   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 9.57 POINTS OR 0.32%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 125.61 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 206.90 POINTS OR 0.89%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.49/Euro FALLS TO 1.0796

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 52.78 and Brent: 58.46

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.42%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.92% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.28%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.34: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.97

3k Gold at $1607.10 silver at: 18.31   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 33/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.52

3m oil into the 52 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.44 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9835 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0620 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.42%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.56% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.00%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0738..

Global Stocks, Futures Jump On Hope China Will Bailout Its Airline Sector

Global stocks reversed Tuesday’s losses and rose on Wednesday after fresh “hope and optimism”TM emerged that China is getting closer to containing the coronavirus epidemic and that Beijing may be planning further measures to support its economy reeling from the virus-induced crash. The yen weakened and the USDJPY hit the highest level since May 2019.

In the latest coronavirus news, China’s Hubei province reported 1693 new cases and 132 additional deaths from the coronavirus as of February 18 vs. 1807 additional cases and 93 deaths on February 17: death toll 1921 vs. Prev. 1800. China’s Mainland reported additional 1749 coronavirus cases and 136 additional deaths as of February 18 vs. 1886 additional cases and 98 deaths on February 17: Total cases 74185 vs. Prev. 72436, total deaths 2004 vs. Prev. 1789. Outside of China, South Korea reported a surge of 15 more cases bringing the total to 46, according to Yonhap.

US index futures were all solidly in the green, rebounding from Tuesday’s Apple-induced drop, after China posted the lowest daily rise in new coronavirus cases since Jan. 29, helping to lift the offshore yuan to two-week highs (even if Chinese stocks closed modestly in the red). And while most rational traders view Chinese data on the virus with scepticism, sentiment was further lifted by a Bloomberg report that Beijing was considering cash injections or mergers to bail out airlines hit by the virus. Those steps would come after this week’s cut in the medium-term lending rate, which has fed expectations for a reduction in the benchmark loan prime rate.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed toward a record close, with all 19 sectors in the green. Shares in clothing and luxury-goods companies were among the best performers as the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%. Among European stocks, shares in Deutsche Telekom rose 3.6% after the German telecommunications company reported a 78% increase in 2019 profit and forecast further growth in 2020. Shares in Puma jumped 7.9% after the German sports-apparel producer reported a 40% increase in annual net earnings and proposed a higher dividend.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, snapping a four-day decline, as sentiment toward riskier assets improved following a report that China may introduce more supporting measures to counter its virus-hit economy. Shares climbed in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney, while Shanghai stocks dipped from their highest level in about four weeks. Treasuries edged higher along with European bonds. The benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%. Most of the markets in the region were up, with Japan’s Topix index ending a seven-day decline, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index reversed an earlier gain. India’s Sensex index rose for the first time in five days. Bloomberg reported that China is considering measures such as direct cash infusions and mergers to bail out an airline industry crippled by the coronavirus outbreak.

Edward Park, chief investment officer at Brooks Macdonald, cited President Xi Jinping’s latest commitment to meeting 2020 growth targets. “This in itself implies there will be more fiscal and monetary stimulus,” Park said. “That’s the real carrot for markets today.”

China, the world’s second-largest economy, is also struggling to get manufacturing back online after severe travel restrictions were imposed to contain the coronavirus. Japanese exports fell for the 14th straight month in January, data showed.

The recovery in global stocks came after China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said the government would connect factories with technology companies to identify weak links in their supply chains. The assistance is one of several steps that Beijing and local Chinese authorities have taken to limit the economic fallout of the coronavirus, which has sickened 75,200 people world-wide and killed more than 2,000.

Growth worries were reflected in a dismal German investor sentiment survey and the U.S. Treasury curve, where the yield curve is again inverted as yields on three-month bills rose above 10-year yields. The yield on three-month bills stood at 1.5949%, above the 10-year yield of 1.5661%. “There is some nervousness that economic data outside the United States is not amazing,” Park said.

Confidence that Beijing can contain the economic fallout from the epidemic spilled over into currency markets. The Japanese yen, seen as a haven, fell 0.4% to trade at ¥110.27 against the dollar. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are dependent on China’s appetite for imports, strengthened. The New Zealand dollar rose after RBNZ Govornor Orr said the domestic economy and monetary policy were “in a good position,” tempering expectations for further interest-rate cuts. The Australian dollar advanced, although gains were cut short as options-related selling curbed momentum from broader risk-on trend. The pound climbed to the day’s high on faster-than-expected inflation, before falling back to trade slightly lower versus the greenback. Sweden’s krona fell to a two-week low against the euro after inflation slowed more than forecast

In commodities, brent-crude oil prices rose 1.1% to $58.39 a barrel after the Trump administration blacklisted a trading brokerage owned by Russian oil giant Rosneft, which the U.S. said has helped Venezuela export crude. The sanctions could reduce Venezuelan oil exports by up to half a million barrels a day, reducing global supplies, according to Helge Andre Martinsen, an energy analyst at Norway’s DNB Bank. Separately, a reduction in supply from Libya offset concerns about weaker Chinese demand.

A stealthy flight to safety pushed gold above $1,600 and to its highest price since 2013, while palladium extended its record-breaking rally on forecasts for a widening deficit.

Investors are waiting to see what other growth-supportive measures could be introduced, particularly in the euro zone. They will also keep an eye on the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last meeting. The Fed has signaled that it’s keeping an eye on the coronavirus impact but has no intention of cutting interest rates anytime soon. Many analysts reckon it could be forced to change its mind.

“Given the risks we see to both growth and inflation falling short of expectations this year, we still expect the Fed’s view on the need for additional rate cuts to shift later this year,” NatWest analysts told clients, adding they were “not at this time removing rate cuts from our forecast.”

To the day ahead, which this morning includes January housing starts and building permits along with January PPI. In the afternoon we also receive the FOMC minutes from the January 29th meeting. Away from that it’s a busy day for Fedspeak with Bostic, Mester, Kashkari, Kaplan and Barkin all scheduled to speak. Expect there to also be some focus on the Democratic Party debate.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,378.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 433.15
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 168.76
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 553.76
  • Nikkei up 0.9% to 23,400.70
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,671.86
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 27,655.81
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,975.40
  • Sensex up 1% to 41,311.43
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,144.56
  • Kospi up 0.07% to 2,210.34
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.408%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.0804
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 0.765%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.283%
  • Brent futures up 1.4% to $58.55/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,608.11
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.02% to 99.42

Top Overnight News

  • Traders and investors are eager for more detail on the Federal Reserve’s plans to wrap up its balance sheet expansion and a related short-term lending program when minutes of the Jan. 28-29 policy meeting are released Wednesday in Washington
  • China is considering measures such as direct cash infusions and mergers to bail out an airline industry crippled by the coronavirus outbreak, according to people familiar with the matter. One proposal involves allowing some of the biggest state-controlled carriers to absorb smaller ones suffering the most from the collapse of travel
  • U.K. inflation picked up for the first time in six months in January, tempering expectations for a Bank of England interest-rate cut later this year. Consumer prices rose a stronger-than-forecast 1.8% from a year earlier, the most since July, official data showed Wednesday
  • A growing number of China’s private companies have cut wages, delayed paychecks or stopped paying staff completely, saying that the economic toll of the coronavirus has left them unable to cover their labor costs
  • Chinese refineries are throttling back production even further to cope with weak demand and a lack of workers due to the coronavirus, and are now processing 25% less oil than they were last year

Asian equities traded with cautious gains following on from a mixed lead on Wall Street, where the Dow fell for a third consecutive day following Apple’s profit warning, albeit the Nasdaq ended the session relatively flat. ASX 200 (+0.4%) traded sideways throughout most of the session and failed to gain much traction from a slew of earnings, although heavyweight Westpac’s shares were under pressure amid additional costs expected to be incurred due to its regulatory investigation. Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) outperformed following the prior session’s steep losses as tech names recouped losses and with the index underpinned by a softer JPY, meanwhile, Nissan shares led the gains despite its alliance partner Renault’s downgrade to junk status at Moody’s. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) pared opening losses with the former propped up by its behemoth oil names and financials (ex-HSBC), whilst the latter saw support amid further anticipated easing measures ahead of tomorrow’s LRP announcement – with the rates widely expected to be reduced following the 10bps MLF cut by the PBoC earlier in the week. Finally, Singapore’s Straits Times Index (+0.7%) was buoyed following the unveiling of a generous Singapore Budget, which allocated almost USD 5bln to tackle the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak.

Top Asian News

  • China Star Trader’s New Fund Lures $17 Billion in a Day
  • Vodafone Idea Surges on Report Cabinet May Mull Dues Repayment
  • Japan’s Top Bank Is Said to Invest Over $700 Million in Grab
  • Thai Billionaire’s Hotel Arm Expects Only Short-Term Virus Jolt

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.4%) are posting steady gains in early EU trade after mounting a recovery from yesterday’s losses with macro newsflow otherwise relatively light thus far. Gains across sectors are relatively broad-based with IT names being granted some reprieve from yesterday’s Apple-inspired declines (STMicroelectronics +2.8%, Dialog Semi +2.6%, Infineon +1.9%), whilst HSBC (+2.7%) are also recouping recent losses following its recent restructuring announcement. Lagging its peers are energy names with recent upside in crude prices not enough to bolster sentiment for European producers. Elsewhere, above-forecast earnings from Puma (+8.6%) has sent its shares to the top of the Stoxx 600, helping to lift competitor Adidas out of negative territory after it warned that it has endured a material negative impact in China as a result of the coronavirus. Other gainers include Deutsche Telekom (+3.4%) and Covestro (+2.9%) post-earnings, whilst to the downside, Renault (-2.1%) shares are suffering after its debt was downgraded to junk status at Moody’s, with auto names/parts producers also suffering.

Top European News

  • U.K. Inflation Accelerates to Its Fastest Pace in Six Months
  • Boris Johnson Is Told to Rein In Top Aide After Racism Dispute
  • BOE Speech Leaked Early to Trader in 2017, Times Reports
  • Intesa’s Messina Turns Dealmaker to Create Italian Champion

In FX, inflation metrics have given the Rand, Pound and Swedish Crown something else to consider aside from the broader fluctuations in risk sentiment largely on unfolding events in China and the external impact of COVID-19. Usd/Zar is consolidating around 14.9500 in wake of headline SA CPI rebounding towards the SARB’s 2020 average rate, while Cable pared declines from another test of decent sub-1.3000 support on the back of UK headline and core rates (y/y) both beating consensus, in stark contrast to Swedish readings falling far short of expectations and even recently downgraded Riksbank projections. Hence, Eur/Sek is hovering just shy of resistance circa 10.6000 and diverging from Eur/Nok that is back down around 10.0300 amidst a pick-up in risk appetite on more speculation about additional Chinese stimulus. Back to Sterling, fresh lows now being forged on a lack of follow-through buying and persistent jitters about a hard Brexit given little sign of the EU budging from level playing field lines.

  • NZD/AUD/CAD – Not quite zero to hero, but the Kiwi has pared more losses from Tuesday’s lows following supportive comments from RBNZ Governor Orr overnight claiming that the domestic economy and OCR rate are both in a good place presently. Nzd/Usd has rebounded to 0.6400 in response, but Aud/Nzd remains above 1.0450 as the Aussie gleans traction from the YUAN reclaiming 7.0000+ status (just) after a first PBoC fix under the handle since Xmas Day. Indeed, Aud/Usd is straddling 0.6700 where a mega 2.6 bn expiries roll off compared to yesterday’s 0.6674 base and awaiting jobs data for more independent direction, while NZ Q4 CPI also looms for the Kiwi. Prior to all that, the Loonie will be looking for impetus via Canadian inflation as Usd/Cad retreats from post-manufacturing sales peaks close to 1.3280 and hovers near 1.3230.
  • JPY/XAU – The Yen has succumbed to more pronounced safe-haven flow/position unwinding, as Gold appears to be the port of choice and store of value most avidly sought at the current juncture. As such, Usd/Jpy has breached the prior ytd apex and is now aiming for 110.50 in front of a Fib (110.64), while spot bullion inches further beyond Usd1600/oz and to within a whisker of the January 8 pinnacle (Usd1611.42).
  • EUR/CHF – Both narrowly mixed against a firmer Dollar in general, with the DXY inching closer to 99.500 in advance of US data and FOMC minutes amidst a raft of Fed speakers, and by definition displaying relative resilience. The single currency is pivoting 1.0800 with underlying support in the form of decent expiry interest at 1.0785 (1.2 bn), while the Franc continues to meander between 0.9800-50 and 1.0600-50 vs the Euro.
  • EM – The Lira is still languishing below 6.0000 vs the Greenback in wake of the latest more measured CBRT rate cuts (-50 bp) and a reiteration of cautious guidance for further easing given recent spikes in inflation and above forecast Turkish CPI prints. Moreover, on top of his usual pre-policy meeting prompting for further rate normalisation (easing) President Erdogan upped the ante vs Russia and Syrian Government forces with a warning that attacks in Idlib will not be tolerated.

In commodities, WTI and Brent prices are firmer at present, as focus moves away from the demand side and the coronavirus to potential supply headwinds. Via the tensions between Ukraine and Russia yesterday, US’ sanctions on Rosneft as well as the ongoing dispute in Libya. On the latter, the recent attacks on Tripoli’s ports have caused the Government to pull out of ongoing peace talks. From an OPEC perspective, we are still awaiting word from Russia on the JTC’s recommendations and today sees OPEC meeting with the IEA amongst other agencies; so, focus will be on any pertinent remarks or guidance from this. Note, due to the US President’s day holiday tonight will see the API weekly inventory release where last week’s headline crude printed a larger build than was expected (+6mln vs. Exp. +3mln). Turning to metals, where spot gold retains a firm bid this morning, as sentiment overall remains conflicted and tentative due to the ongoing geo-political updates and in what has been a relatively quiet session thus far; particularly when compared to yesterday’s mid-day flurry. The yellow metals recent high from January 8th is 1611.42, after which we return to levels not seen since 2013. Elsewhere, China has increased its H1 rare earths output quota by 10% in an attempt to increase production following the coronavirus induced disruptions.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Housing Starts MoM, est. -11.23%, prior 16.9%; est. 1.43m, prior 1.61m
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.45m, prior 1.42m;
  • 8:30am: Building Permits MoM, est. 2.11%, prior -3.9%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%; PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 1.6%, prior 1.3%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.3%, prior 1.1%; PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 1.5%
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

While the economic impact may be more limited and short-lived outside of China, Apple’s latest earnings guidance was a decent reminder that second order impacts on both demand and supply shocks remain a risk for markets. It remains to be seen how long the impact will persist, however it did cause US markets to pause for breath, even if equity markets closed off their lows in the US last night.

Indeed having re-opened following the long-weekend the S&P 500 closed down -0.29% last night, only the 3rd down day in the last 11 sessions. An interesting fact worth highlighting is that the index has only fallen for two consecutive days once this year. Apple shares were -1.83% lower however they did pare a bigger decline of as much as -4.58% overnight and -3.00% intraday. In fairness the NASDAQ was basically unchanged (+0.02%), as the largest declines in the US were in the financials and energy sectors, so markets didn’t seem overly concerned with the impact on technology companies even as Apple warned investors. The mild risk-off helped 10y Treasury yields to edge down 2.5bps to 1.562% and to the lowest since 3 Feb – the 2s10s curve also flattening to 14.5bps and flattest since late November – while Gold rallied +1.30% and therefore putting it up an impressive +5.61% this year already. Meanwhile WTI oil finished flat (+0.10%) after being down nearly 2% before the US opened.

This morning the news that China is considering more stimulus measures to prop up the economy in the face of the virus is helping sentiment to turn more positive. Specifically this includes direct cash infusions and mergers to bail out the airline industry. The State Council also announced that SMEs would be exempt from paying pension contribution and social insurance fees from February to June. The Nikkei (+0.94%), Hang Seng (+0.44%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.35%) are all up as a result with only the Kospi (-0.20%) trading down following news that South Korea confirmed 15 more cases of the coronavirus overnight bringing total cases in the country to 46. The death toll in China now stands at 2006 with confirmed cases at 74,186, with new case numbers continuing to decline.

Back to yesterday, where helping to perhaps balance out some of the negative read-through from the Apple news was the latest US data. Specifically, it was the empire manufacturing print, which rose a much better than expected 8.1pts to 12.9 (vs. 5.0 expected). That’s the biggest one-month jump since July last year and highest reading since May. The new orders component also surged to the highest since September 2017 while the ISM adjusted series rose to 56.9 which is the strongest since June 2018 and clearly positive in the face of the virus concerns. That being said there is a divergence of sorts between the new orders and six-month outlook for new orders which suggests some possible one-offs in the data. Elsewhere the NAHB housing market index slipped 1pt to 74 however still remains historically high.

In contrast to the empire manufacturing data, the February ZEW survey in Germany was much weaker than expected. The expectations component fell 18pts to 8.7 (vs. 21.5 expected) while the current situations component weakened a further 16.2pts to -15.7 (vs. -10.0 expected). For the expectations survey that is the weakest reading since November last year however it is still comfortably above the levels of all last year. The STOXX 600 and DAX closed -0.38% and -0.75% lower respectively with Apple suppliers like Dialog and AMS struggling, while HSBC closed down -5.59% following the restructuring news.

Looking ahead to today, something to keep an eye on is the Democratic Party debate in the US at 9pm EST/2am GMT. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will be on the debate stage for the first time after there was a change in the qualifying rules. Candidates had needed to reach a certain threshold of individual donations to their campaign to qualify, but as the former Mayor is self-funded his only donor is himself. While the Democratic National Committee has taken some criticism from dropping the rule so late in the process, Bloomberg’s relatively high polling numbers make it nearly impossible to exclude him as voters are clearly considering the former three-term mayor. In RealClearPolitics.com’s average polling over the last two weeks, Sanders leads the field in national polls at 24.8%, Biden is now second at 17.8%, but Bloomberg has jumped into 3rd place with 14.6%. Tonight will be the first chance for the other candidates to debate Bloomberg, who has mostly been making his case to voters in TV ads purchased across the country. If he holds up well he could start consolidating the moderate/centre-left vote that Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar have been fighting over, but a poor performance could strengthen Sanders position as the moderate vote continues to splinter among 3-5 candidates. The debate is taking place in Nevada, which will host a primary on Saturday and is a potential swing state in the general election after former Secretary Clinton won the state over President Trump by 2.4% of the vote.

In other news, it’s worth highlighting that a number of WSJ reports in recent days suggest that the US is considering new export restrictions on China. The articles have included restrictions or the halting of jet engine deliveries to China and access to chip technology and makers. Something worth keeping an eye on. Staying with China, yesterday President Xi was quoted as saying that China would still be able to meet 2020 economic targets despite the virus impact on the economy. That would suggest that large stimulus is a big factor, something our China economists highlighted in their latest note here. They make the point that while the government’s focus remains on battling the virus for now, it could shift rapidly towards boosting economic activities once the outbreak is contained.

Perhaps related to the WSJ stories, President Trump tweeted yesterday that the US “cannot, and will not, become such a difficult place to deal with in terms of countries buying our product”. The President called some of the regulations being circulated as “ridiculous” and that he wants to make it “easy” to do business with the US. The tweet also included a direct reference to wanting China to purchase jet engines. The President also made it clear that he wanted to keep the current trade rules in place to ensure that US companies did not lose these business deals to other countries

Wrapping up, in the UK the latest employment data showed strong employment growth but weak wage data. The former included a 3.8% unemployment rate – unchanged versus last month – and a slightly higher than expected employment change print (180k vs. 148k expected). The latter however showed weekly earnings ex bonuses of 3.2% (vs. 3.3% expected).

To the day ahead, which this morning includes January inflation data in the UK. In the US the data due are January housing starts and building permits along with January PPI. Later this evening we also receive the FOMC minutes from the January 29th meeting. Away from that it’s a busy day for Fedspeak with Bostic, Mester, Kashkari, Kaplan and Barkin all scheduled to speak. Expect there to also be some focus on the Democratic Party debate.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.57 POINTS OR 0.32%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.61 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed UP 206.90 POINTS OR 0.89%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .40%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9942 /Oil UP TO 52.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.46 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9942 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9998 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/CORONAVIRUS

Japan must be getting nervous with respect to the virus:  they have ordered thousands to work form home as experts claim they are on the cusp of a large outbreak

(zerohedge)

Thousands Ordered To Work From Home As Experts Warn Japan Is “On The Cusp Of A Large Outbreak”

With half of China’s population facing some level of travel restriction due to the coronavirus outbreak, the Politburo’s attempt to get the country back to work has been slow going and fraught with setbacks.

Much of the coverage so far has lingered on Apple’s supply woes and warnings by companies as diverse as automakers and textiles firms about supply chain disruptions tied to factory closures in China. But China isn’t the only country facing serious economic blowback from the outbreak.

Tens of thousands of professional workers in Japan have been asked to work from home in a government-supported policy to contain a possible outbreak in Tokyo.

As the government advises people to avoid crowded area, many companies have instructed employees to either work from home or minimize their time in-office. According to Nikkei, they include: Soy, Fujitsu, Toshiba, Takeda, NEC, KDDI and SoftBank.

To keep employees out of large crowds, Sony urged staffers Tuesday to telework and avoid commuting during rush hour. It is suspending its usual 10-day monthly cap for working from home.

For those who must physically be on-site, Sony is offering a flexible schedule with shorter mandatory hours of noon to 3:30 p.m., compared with the usual start time of 9:30 a.m. Bypassing rush-hour commutes will minimize the risk of contracting the coronavirus, the thinking goes.

Fujitsu is letting employees who are pregnant or have underlying health conditions to work from home for as many full days as needed, scrapping its usual weekly and monthly limits. Toshiba told all subsidiaries Tuesday to introduce telecommuting to all workers.

Takeda also urged its 5,200-plus workers to stay off and avoid commute during rush hour if they must come in at all. Among other companies advocating telework are NEC, KDDI and SoftBank Corp.

Shinzo Abe’s government, eager to do everything it can to ensure that the Summer Olympics in Tokyo go off without a hitch, is backing the work-from-home policy for as long as necessary to prevent the virus from spreading.

The government has embraced such efforts. “It’s important to create an environment where students and workers feel like they can stay home, and I ask for your cooperation,” Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said at a response meeting Tuesday.

“Teleworking is an effective solution,” he said.

“People must not go to school or work if they have coldlike symptoms, such as a fever, and avoid leaving the house,” said Abe, who also discouraged large-scale events that could lead to widespread infection.

Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike on Monday threw her support behind teleworking and staggered commutes. “We need to start with what we can, and we’ll come up with a detailed plan as soon as we can,” she said.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government decided that day to distribute roughly 150,000 protective masks to bus and taxi drivers in response to a request by industry groups.

The world is watching to see if Japan will see the first major outbreak outside China. Japan appears “on the cusp of a large outbreak and maybe epidemic growth,” former U.S. Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Tuesday. The country’s patient count has doubled in four days, he said.

“If you start to see this become epidemic in other nations or have other nations experiencing large outbreaks that’s going to be extremely worrisome that we’re not going to control this globally,” Gottlieb said.

But with a stampede of passengers and crewmembers of the ‘Diamond Princess’ about to be released from a two-week quarantine tomorrow through Friday, even as the number of newly diagnosed cases continues to rise, Abe should probably pray that his government’s top public health officials know what they’re doing.

END

3 C CHINA

CHINA/CAR SUBSIDIES

With China’s economy faltering badly by day, the POBC is starting to throw lots of money into the economy..but that will not help as nobody is going to work. Today they began subsidizing car purchases

(zerohedge)

Chinese Cities Begin Subsidizing Car Purchases To Resurrect Auto Market From The Dead

As nearly the entire country of China remains on lockdown – and the country’s auto industry, which was already mired in recession prior to the coronavirus fiasco, gets thrashed even further – some Chinese cities are doing what governments do best: inefficiently throwing money they don’t have at their problems.

The Chinese city of Foshan is the first in what we guess is going to be a long line of cities to start subsidizing car purchases, according to a Bloomberg report out Monday.

Consumers who trade in old models are going to be given 3,000 yuan (about $430 USD) of subsidies. Buyers of new vehicles without trade ins will be entitled to 2,000 yuan.

The move comes after President Xi Jinping has urged local officials to help boost auto sales.

Recall, we wrote just days ago that auto sales in China were crushed in January, declining 20.2% on a year over year basis, according to the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The country sold 1.94 million vehicles, according to the CAAM.

The decline is attributable, obviously, to the coronavirus outbreak in the country, combined with the lunar new year falling in late January, as opposed to early February, this year.

And, unfortunately, there is literally no reason for optimism in February, as it was the end of January and early February when China was placed essentially on a full lockdown due to the outbreak of the virus.

In fact, we just wrote  a couple weeks ago that auto industry executives are admitting that the virus could “wreak havoc” on sales and production for the first quarter, according to the Asia Times. Automakers across the country have been forced to cancel sales targets and offer subsidies to hold over dealers during the outbreak.

 

The coronavirus has now killed over 1,700 people (if you are to believe the CCP’s likely understated numbers) and more than 70,000 people are now confirmed to be infected in China. 780 million people in China are now living under travel restrictions.

Just days ago, we reported about a major inventory glut looming in the Chinese auto market, as well.

Wuhan has become a ghost town
Accordingly, we noted, traffic to showrooms has collapsed across the country since late January. A China Automobile Dealer’s association poll shows that dealers predict a drastic drop in sales of 50% to 80% this month, compared to February 2019. 70% of dealers have said they have seen “almost no customers” since the end of January. 

END

CHINA/USA/SUPPLY CHAIN

Here is a list of USA firms that will be at risk for not obtaining parts from China

(zerohedge)

Which Supply Chains Are Most At Risk: The Answer In One Chart

Now that Apple has broken the seal and made it abundantly clear that China’s economic collapse which could push its Q1 GDP negative according to Goldman as the second largest world economy grinds to a halt (as described here last week)…

… will have an adverse impact on countless supply-chains, which in today’s “just in time” delivery environment, are absolutely critical for keeping the global economy running smoothly (for a quick reminder of what happens when JIT supply chains stop functioning read our article from 2012 “”Trade-Off”: A Study In Global Systemic Collapse“), attention on Wall Street has turned to which other US sectors stand to be adversely impacted should the coronavirus pandemic not be contained on short notice and China’s economy crisis transforms into a supply shock.

Conveniently, Goldman Sachs just did this analysis.

 

In a report looking at the impact of Chinese factory shutdowns on the US consumer, Goldman’s Spencer Hill first looks at historical precedent and finds that a somewhat similar supply shock emerged in the winter 2014-15—a four-month labor dispute affecting West Coast ports— which appeared to meaningfully affect retail spending on consumer goods in the first quarter of 2015 (though snowy weather was likely a factor as well). This is shown in the chart below.

Indeed, the March 2015 Beige Book noted that consumer spending in the San Francisco Fed district would have been stronger “if not for delays receiving merchandise caused by labor disputes at West Coast ports.”

Extrapolating this historical pattern, Goldman notes that “long shipping times to the US (generally 1 month or more by sea) imply the supply-chain effects of Chinese production shortfalls may not fully materialize until future quarters—at which point above-trend Chinese production or import substitution from other counties could offset some of the impact.”

However, analyzing granular international trade data from the Census Bureau, Goldman finds that nearly a third of Chinese products arrive by air (by value, including over 75% of telecom hardware), with these goods representing 3.6% of US retail sales and just under 1% of personal consumption expenditures. The composition of these products (and their wholesale value) are shown in the left panel of the chart below, and represent the sector most likely to be impacted as China remains paralyzed. Unsurprisingly, airfreight imports are skewed towards high-value, light-weight products such as smartphones, laptops, and consumer electronics, representing a perfect storm for a company such as Apple which is reliant on all three. Additionally, a significant share of apparel and footwear (10%) also arrives from China by plane.

To summarize, here are the sectors more at risk from a continued crunch across Chinese factories:

Illustratively, Goldman notes that if air freight from Mainland China falls by 50% in February and returns to roughly normal in March, forgone sales could reduce monthly retail control by as much as 1.8%. Assuming only half of these spending dollars are used to purchase other goods and services, February retail spending would be depressed by 0.9%, lowering Q1 consumption growth by 0.3% (qoq ar).

The good news, until last night at least, is that virtually no companies had disclosed an immediate adverse impact emerging due to Chinese supply chains, sparking some hopes that most if not all had found alternative supply chain substitutes to offset the Chinese crisis. However, with Apple’s guidance cut, it now appears that US companies had merely hoped to delay as long as possible the guidance cuts. As a result we now expect a waterfall of negative earnings preannouncements from most companies that have even a modest exposure to Chinese output, which also means that Q1 earnings are looking increasingly gloomy after the modest EPS rebound in Q4, which as we detailed previously was entirely on the back of the “Big 5” FAAMG tech megacaps.

END

CHINA/wsj reporters/USA

The Wall Street Journal has been very critical on the Chinese government over how this virus started in the first place. They will not allow the important  CDC into the country to ascertain how the initial person affected got the virus  (Patient zero).  The Wall Street Journal believes as do we that the virus is a bioweapon made in the level 4 labs in Wuhan after being stolen from Winnipeg, Canada\(zerohedge)

China Expels 3 WSJ Reporters Over “Racist” Opinion Piece

Update (0720ET): CNBC’s Eunice Yoon, who has also been a reliable source of information out of Beijing since the outbreak began, has published a statement from Beijing about the expulsions: “Chinese people do not welcome media that publish racially discriminatory and malicious slander on China. In light of this, China has decided to revoke the press cards of the three Wall Street Journal correspondents in Beijing starting today.”

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

revoked the press credentials of three @WSJ journalists based in Beijing. Foreign Ministry said move was punishment for a recent @WSJ opinion piece. @joshchin, @Chao_Deng, @PhilipWen11 ordered to leave in 5 days, said @JChengWSJ. https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/china-expels-three-wall-street-journal-reporters-11582100355 

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

“Chinese people do not welcome media that publish racially discriminatory and malicious slander on China. In light of this, China has decided to revoke the press cards of the three Wall Street Journal correspondents in Beijing starting today.” at Foreign Ministry briefing

8View image on Twitter

Why do we have the feeling that this will be the first of many?

* * *

Beijing’s propaganda campaign to paper over the depredations of its heavy handed quarantines and other outbreak-suppression efforts was launched into hyperspeed earlier this month as the international community – including the WHO – started questioning everything – from whether Beijing deliberately hid information about the outbreak in the early days (looks like it did), to whether the virus was originally developed in a bioweapons lab in Wuhan before being unleashed on the public (), to whether Beijng was actually capable of resolving this issue without some kind of intervention.

These doubts likely played some role in Beijing’s decision to refuse to allow foreign experts into the country – though it gladly accepted shipments of facemasks and medicine – as the most important thing is that the Communist Party project an image of strength upon the global stage.

Which is probably why this editorial annoyed them so much.

From time to time, China expels foreign journalists. In recent years, reporters from Bloomberg, WSJ and the New York Times have been booted from the country. But early Wednesday morning, the Wall Street Journal reported that three of its reporters – Deputy Beijing Bureau Chief Josh Chin and reporter Chao Deng, as well as reporter Philip Wen have been ordered to leave China in five days, according to Jonathan Cheng, WSJ’s Beijing bureau chief and a formidable foreign correspondent in his own right.

Amid the chaos of the breakout’s early days, WSJ’s Beijing bureau was responsible for some seriously ambitious pieces, and Deng’s reporting in particular distinguished him as one of the first western reporters to convey serious doubts about the accuracy of China’s tests.

American cartoon “South Park” has been banned in China

Although expulsions of reporters are relatively common, WSJ’s editors noted that this is the first time Beijing has expelled multiple reporters from the same foreign news organization in the post-Mao era.

 

In a strange twist, Beijing didn’t mention any of these pieces in its communications with WSJ. According to the paper, an Opinion Section piece titled “China Is The Real Sick Man of Asia.” was cited as the reason all three reporters were given five days to leave the country. 

The piece was written by Walter Russel Mead for WSJ’s “Global View” column. None of the reporters targeted by Beijing had a hand in writing the piece, according to WSJ.

However, Beijing said it wanted to punish the news organization because it felt the column was “racist”. This isn’t the first time we’ve heard this excuse from Beijing: the Chinese media have been beating the racism drum for a while to try and discredit criticisms of Beijing’s virus response.

As WSJ reminds us:

The phrase “sick man of Asia” was used by both outsiders and Chinese intellectuals to refer to a weakened China’s exploitation by European powers and Japan in the late 1800s and early 1900s, a period now described in Chinese history textbooks as the “century of humiliation.”

It seems Beijing has taken a page out of the American SJW’s playbook: Once somebody’s accused of racism, logical inquiry ends. We wonder if the Chinese people feel the same way?

END

CHINA/USA

the war with China escalates as the uSA has now designating 5 Chinese state media outlets as “foreign missions” which will give the USA more control over what they say

(zerohedge)

US Designates 5 Chinese State Media Outlets As ‘Foreign Missions’

At a moment the Chinese state has continued its crackdown on American journalists and content — in the latest instance expelling three WSJ reporters for a “racist” opinion piece — the US State Department has announced it will require five state-run news agencies which operate in the US to register as “foreign missions”.

This means they must register all personnel and property with the US government and will be treated as additional foreign missions as defined under the Foreign Missions Act. They’ll effectively now have to comply with all rules governing foreign embassies and consulates. The outlets are Xinhua News Agency, China Global Television Network (or CCTV), China Radio International, the parent company of China Daily newspaper, and the parent company of the The People’s Daily newspaper.

“These five U.S.-based entities are not independent news organizations — they are effectively controlled by the [Chinese] government,” a State Department spokesperson said Tuesday, Politico reports.

 

Damaged entrance of China’s official Xinhua news agency after anti-government protest in Hong Kong, China. Image source: Reuters

An in a separate report, another US official said, “Obviously the Chinese Communist Party has always had a pretty tight rein on media in general and state-run media in particular but that has only further tightened since Xi Jinping took over.”

Registration under the Foreign Missions Act allows US authorities to demand that the five media entities disclose a lot more information about their internal operations. As the WSJ describes, “The move is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to ferret out actions by China seen as inimical to U.S. interests — from academics and business executives stealing intellectual property to the spread of the Chinese government’s views by state-backed media and education institutions.”

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo earlier this month told the National Governors Association in a speech that he’s trying to curtail Chinese eavesdropping and data collection activities on US soil. Speaking of tighter restrictions on Chinese media organizations, he said: “This is just fairness, reciprocity, basic common sense. This is not an onerous restriction to put on China.”

Theoretically the “foreign missions” designation now means that in any diplomatic spat, the US could move to close and expel Chinese media outlets which would be akin to closing a consulate, giving Washington more leverage in any such extreme scenario. The State Department sees the outlets as part of a broad state propaganda machine:

“They are part and parcel of the People’s Republic of China propaganda machine,” the official said. “The fact of the matter is each and every single one of these entities does in fact work 100% for the Chinese government and the Chinese Communist Party,” the official added. “These guys are on the organizational chart.”

The People’s Daily and China Daily have already been registered as foreign agents since at least 1996 and 1983, under their parent company Hai Tian Development.

All of this sets the stage for the greater likelihood of Beijing ‘taking the gloves off’ in its ill treatment of US and Western media operating in China, amid increasingly critical coronavirus coverage.

HONG KONG

Foreigners are fleeing Hong Kong in huge numbers due to the protests and the coronavirus

(zerohedge)

Expats Flee Hong Kong Over Protests, Coronavirus

Expats living in Hong Kong have been fleeing the country after nearly a year of protests and the new, looming threat of the hyper-virulent coronavirus, which has already infected 62 people in the country as of February 17.

 

Residents wear masks as they march to protest against the government’s plan to set up a quarantine site close to their community amid the Wuhan outbreak, in Hong Kong, on Feb 2, 2020.PHOTO: REUTERS

It’s just becoming an unstable environment to raise a child in,” said Ian Jacob, owner of a construction materials company who is leaving Hong Kong with his wife and 10-year-old daughter after 15 years, according to the Straits Times.

“We watched as the situation got worse and worse,” he said of the political unrest which has unfolded over the past year.

With classes suspended again amid the coronavirus outbreak, the prospect of more home schooling for their 10-year-old daughter pushed them to take refuge in Auckland, New Zealand.

Mr Jacob said they’ll be moving back there for good once the school year ends in Hong Kong. –Straits Times

According to the Timesexpats who have been thinking about leaving the politically unstable city have a sense of urgency due to the coronavirus, which has officially killed over 2,000 people and infected over 75,000.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has been oddly criticized for closing schools until mid-March due to the coronavirus threat, unlike Singapore.

Critics accuse Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s government of mishandling the latest crisis compared with Singapore, which has kept schools open.

An exodus by expats like Mr Jacob could further damage an economy already reeling from the unrest and the virus, with visitor numbers plunging and unemployment rising.

Hong Kong residents who come from elsewhere play outsized roles in finance, law and other service industries that make the city a global business capital. –Straits Times

There are just under 700,000 foreigners and mainland Chinese living in Hong Kong, accounting for nearly 9.5% of the population according to the 2016 census. Half of all expats ion the Special Administrative Region are from the Philippines and Indonesia – the primary source of domestic help. Additionally, there are around 35,000 Britons and 14,800 Americans.

And while the Times can’t say exactly how many people are considering leaving, “there is growing anecdotal evidence of a shift in sentiment among expats,” as evidenced by relocation companies which have experienced a spike in inquiries about moving, along with predictions that the ongoing political crisis will only “worsen in the days and weeks ahead,” as the city deals with the virus – according toa February 11 report from risk consultants Steve Vickers and Associates.

Links International Relocation Ltd had a 45 per cent increase in inquiries about moves in the second week of February compared with a year earlier, said Mr Patrick O’Donnell, the company’s Hong Kong-based managing director.

Typically the peak season for overseas moves is in June, yet springtime already is starting to look busy, said Mr Timothy Tao, Hong Kong-based director of business development with relocation company Asia Tigers Group. Inquiries have jumped in the past month, he said.

People are telling us: How soon can you pack us up?” Mr Tao said. –Straits Times

Meanwhile, worried workers have been panic buying groceries – emptying out shelves, and working from home. This has left restaurants struggling.

According to a February 12 letter from the British and French chambers of commerce, Hong Kong is at economic risk if a mass exodus occurs, and could threaten the city’s global status.

“If the specific needs of international schools cannot be rapidly addressed, this will very likely trigger decisions of families (not just expatriates) to leave Hong Kong in the coming weeks,” wrote Rebecca Silli and Peter Burnett, chairs of the French and British chambers.

“This would also have dramatic consequences on the international schools’ financial position, even to the point of putting at risk the continued operation of some.”

Some families have opted to temporarily relocate until the political situation in Hong Kong settles down.

Insurance industry executive Ruth Lu, who has children ages 7 and 11, has rented a house with a pool on the Thai island of Koh Samui while schools are closed.

“We don’t even need to wear masks,” she said.

A native of China’s Jiangsu Province who has lived in Hong Kong for more than 20 years, Ms Lu has no immediate plans to move but the unrest has soured her on the city.

“It’s not the old Hong Kong like when I first arrived,” she said.

Others, such as several bankers interviewed by Bloomberg, said they had moved abroad with their families until the outbreak has subsided.

Approximately 75% of the families at the prestigious private Chinese International School with over 1,530 students, have provided their whereabouts – with 20% of them reporting to be outside Hong Kong, according to headmaster Sean Lynch.

The US State Department, meanwhile, has warned Americans about travel to Hong Kong – advising increased caution, while allowing non-essential State Department employees and their families to evacuate.

END
CHINA/NHA
This is big: China is now set to nationalize the very big NHA with its tentacles everywhere.  The black swan event of the coronavirus did them in
(zerohedge)

China Prepares To Nationalize Systematically-Important HNA Group

The last time we looked closely at China’s “big four” conglomerates, HNA, Anbang, Evergrande and Dalian Wanda, was back in lat 2017 in the context of the systemic risk (i.e. record debt) that these companies had accumulated as part of their tremendous offshore M&A spree in prior years which however came to a crashing halt once the companies were no longer able to issue cheap debt and pursue a ponzi strategy of buying up more companies, then using them as even more collateral for even more debt for even more M&A and so on.

And while the systemic risk among these conglomerates declined in recent years, it still remained as a byproduct of the sheer size – measured by the number of people they employ as well as debt on the balance sheet – and may explain why according to Bloomberg, China is planning to take over, i.e., nationalize one of the most infamous of Chinese conglomerates, HNA Group, and sell off its airline assets “after the coronavirus outbreak hit the indebted conglomerate’s ability to meet financial obligations.”

In other words, while zombie conglomerates such as HNA, Anbang, et al were on the cusp of collapse for the past three years, all it would take to tip them over into insolvency was a “black swan”, or rather “black bat” event. Such as the coronavirus epidemic. Which left Beijing with little choice: nationalize the company, or let it fail and suffer the consequences as thousands of people are suddenly left without a job.

As Bloomberg further reports, the government of Hainan, the southern island province where HNA is based, “is in talks to take control of the conglomerate, which has been shedding assets after a global buying spree left it with one of the highest levels of corporate debt in China.” Bloomberg sources said that in keeping with a model laid out for bail outs of insolvent banks, the HNA airline assets could be taken over later by other local companies.

The report also said that the takeover announcement could be made as early as tomorrow, though talks are ongoing and could be delayed or fall apart, the people said.

The virus epidemic has killed more than 2,000 people, the majority of them in China, where it has crippled the world’s second-largest economy, shuttering stores, bringing factories to a halt and triggering a virtual shutdown of the airline industry. Since 2018, HNA has sold off tens of billions of dollars in assets including stakes in Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG.

And speaking of Deutsche Bank, with a nearly 5% stake in the German lender, it remains unclear if HNA would be forced to liquidate its stake, and is also why the stock price of the largest German bank puked as the Bloomberg report hit the tape.

end
China/USA Medical Supplies
Shortages are already occurring: the FDA is bracing for drug and medical supply shortages form China
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU CAR REGISTRATIONS

EU car registrations are plunging and this is pre coronavirus

(zerohedge)

EU Auto Registrations Plunge In Dismal Pre-Coronavirus January Numbers

For months we have been commenting about how the global auto market is mired in recession. Most recently, we have been highlighting how China, one of the world’s largest economies and auto markets, has been exacerbating things with terrible sales numbers, failed subsidy ideas, disconnect from Beijing and, obviously, the coronavirus.

Many of the new numbers out of China, including a dismal January sales number and expectations for an awful February, are being blamed on the coronavirus (despite the fact that January’s number doesn’t really even include the virus impact yet).

Now, the numbers out of Europe – where they can’t just turn around and place the blame on the coronavirus, are looking equally as awful and are sounding a much bigger alarm about the global automotive industry. 

New car registrations fell 7.5% on the year to 956,779 vehicles. The data is ex-UK, which is no longer a part of the EU.

The ACEA data, broken down by manufacturer, shows ugly numbers for names like Renault, Daimler and FCA. Names like Toyota and BMW were able to slightly buck the trend:

  • VW Group sales drop 0.1% y/y; ytd down 0.1%
  • PSA Group sales drop 14% y/y; ytd down 14%
  • Renault Group sales drop 16.4% y/y; ytd down 16.4%
  • Ford sales drop 18.6% y/y; ytd down 18.6%
  • FCA Group sales drop 6.4% y/y; ytd down 6.4%
  • BMW Group sales rise 3.8% y/y; ytd up 3.8%
  • Daimler sales drop 10.1% y/y; ytd down 10.1%
  • Hyundai Group sales drop 3.9% y/y; ytd down 3.9%
  • Toyota Group sales rise 10.1% y/y; ytd up 10.1%
  • Nissan sales drop 0.5% y/y; ytd down 0.5%

The drop is sales is being attributed to tax changes in some member states that prompted consumers to make their purchases in December, instead of January, according to Marketwatch. Of course, we continue to attribute the drop to a global economy that is in steep decline, led by a decade of failed central bank policies that are rearing their head to remind consumers that more debt and more money printing simply isn’t the answer.

The European Automobile Manufacturers Association said: “Major taxation changes announced by some EU member states for 2020 pulled registrations forward into December 2019, explaining this January drop.”

“Other contributing factors included weakening global economic conditions and uncertainty caused by the U.K.’s departure from the European Union,” the association continued.

Sales of ICE vehicles fell off in some markets in January, as the EU continues to try and encourage consumers to switch to EVs by using subsidies and lopping fines on manufacturers. Sweden and France, for example, both offer incentives to buyers for EVs, in addition to monitoring output from manufacturers. Perhaps their respective governments should take a look at whether their micromanagment of the market isn’t contributing to the problem, instead of solving it.

The future doesn’t look promising for the EU either: the ACEA forecast in January that the industry is likely to contract by 2% in 2020. 

Sweden, France, Germany and Spain all posted the ugliest numbers, with Sweden plunging 18%, France falling 13.4%, Germany falling 7.3% and Spain falling 7.6%.

Joumanna Bercetche

@CNBCJou

European car sales -7.4%
– France: -13.4%
– Germany: -7.3%
– Spain: -7.6%

New numbers will be released on March 18, which will be the first full set of data since the coronavirus outbreak. We will be keeping a close eye on those numbers to see if “taxation” winds up getting the blame for a beleaguered global economy yet again.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

LIBYA/TURKEY

Turkey is over its head in its fight with UN backed forces in Libya.  The strong LNA force behind USA backed Hafter is blockading all ports except Tripoli.  Turkey tried to send arms into Libya but Hafter attacked a Turkish ship carrying those arms.

(zerohedge)

Libyan Pro-Haftar Forces Attack Turkish Ship “Loaded With Arms” At Tripoli Port

Pro-Haftar forces in Libya say they’ve destroyed a Turkish ship loaded with weapons and ammunition that was docked in the Port of Tripoli on Tuesday.

United Nations Libya envoy Ghassan Salame also confirmed the attack amid months-long fighting between Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and the UN-backed Government of National Accord GNA).

Reuters reports that thick smoke could be seen billowing from the port area, though the LNA’s claim to have directly hit a Turkish ship remained unconfirmed.

 

Thick black smoke billows from Tripoli’s port on Tuesday, via Conflict News.

“A Turkish ship loaded with weapons and ammunition, which docked this morning in the port of Tripoli, was destroyed,” wrote the LNA’s media center on Facebook.

Despite the attempt of Haftar to impose a blockade on all national oil exports, which he first announced January 18, Tripoli’s sea port has remained open for food and other humanitarian supplies, according to the GNA.

Oded Berkowitz@Oded121351

– thick black smoke rising from Port, supposedly from shelling, corresponding with reports of arrival of cargo ship from that was unloading weapons and supplies for

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

The latest fighting has escalated despite both sides meeting in Geneva for a second round of talks, since a summit in Berlin last month failed to establish a permanent ceasefire. Like prior meetings, LNA and GNA representatives refused to sit in the same room, thus little is expected to be secured from these new talks.

Haftar has accused Tripoli and Turkey of violating a UN arms embargo on the country, and thus has told his forces that any Turkish vessel or aircraft is a target.

Ali Özkök@Ozkok_A

– Troops of warlord Khalifa Haftar shelled the port of Tripolis.

Embedded video

Meanwhile, due to the now one month long blockade of oil terminals and oil fields by groups loyal to Gen. Haftar, the Tripoli government has expressed alarm that it will soon cause “catastrophic financial crisis” nationwide.

“The continuation of the shutdowns will result in a catastrophic financial crisis,” Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the Tripoli GNA told reporters over the weekend. “Losses from the oil shutdowns have exceeded $1.4bn. The figure is increasing every day.”

END

6.Global Issues

Please note the chart with the Dow rising against falling forward 12 month earnings/

Market euphoria and yet a huge global slowdown!

(Daniel Lacalle)

Market Euphoria, Global Slowdown

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via DLacalle.com,

We are in very interesting times. We live what is probably the most surprising bull market in history. Excess of demand-side policies, massive liquidity injections, and low rates have zombified the economy and driven debt to all-time highs, while the economic slowdown is evident.

In the eurozone, the mirage of macroeconomic rebound is fading, with very poor figures from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. At the same time, the collapse of Japan’s GDP in the fourth quarter proves that misguided tax increases do have significant negative implications and the estimates of the global impact of the coronavirus range between an optimistic 0.3% and a cautious 0.7% of global GDP. However, risky assets continue to soar and shrug off poor data in what seems like an endless bullish trend.

There is a determining factor in this equation of weak macro, rising debt, and incorrect policies. Financial repression covers a large part of the risks with a blanket of euphoria. With global money supply at $79 trillion and major central bank balance sheets above $21 trillion, irresponsible monetary policies continue to incentivize excessive debt and too much risk. By making the lowest risk assets -sovereign bonds- exceptionally expensive, the rest of financial assets -stocks, private equity- soar almost in unison creating an illusion of endless rising valuation and optically acceptable multiples. When the 10-year yield of most sovereign bonds is negative in real terms, multiples of equities and financial transactions rise accordingly.  However, disguising risk does not eliminate it.

It is not a surprise that the world stock markets added $17 trillion in total capitalization in 2019, according to Deutsche Bank, highly correlated with central banks adding hundreds of billions in liquidity every month. Stock markets all over the world shrugged off poor macro, weak earnings’ and political risk as the ECB, BOJ, PBOC and Fed injected hundreds of billions in the market every month.

It is not a coincidence either that many politicians try to claim the good performance of markets as their doing. Politicians of all colors and ideology congratulate themselves on the rise in bonds and stocks as if it were the result of their policies, and not of the dangerous and perennial monetary insanity of central banks. This is an important problem because risk is not only disguised, reckless fiscal policies are rewarded.

The ECB’s balance sheet is already almost 40% of the eurozone’s GDP and the macro leading indicators point to further weakness. The same is true in Japan, where the BOJ balance sheet already reached 100% of Japan’s GDP. The Federal Reserve has reversed the so-called normalization and its balance has increased by 11% since August. What about China? The balance sheet of the central bank has also skyrocketed drowning the economic and financial troubles with massive liquidity injections. Unfortunately, consensus commentators see the actions of the Japanese central bank as the future, not a warning. Janet Yellen recently mentioned that the Fed should purchase stocks and troubled assets in a downturn, following the example of the Bank Of Japan. According to the BoJ funds flow report for Q3 2019, the bank now owns some 8% of the entire Japanese equity market and 77.5% of the country’s ETFs. Now Japan is close to recession again. Success.

What the market is discounting is financial repression intensifying into 2022. According to Citibank, the balance sheet of the major central banks will likely increase by the highest level since 2011 in the 2020-2021 period, almost a trillion dollars more than at the end of 2019 (this data does not include China).

What is the problem? While central banks maintain bubble-like valuations on many risky assets, investors see downward revisions of growth estimates, worsening industrial activity and corporate profits that do not warrant optimism. Moreover, faith in the placebo effect of central banks can end one day. That is why we find seemingly contradictory indicators: gold and the US dollar rise as safety assets but, at the same time, the most cyclical sectors soar in the stock market. Commodities – especially copper and oil – reflected the global slowdown even before the outbreak of the coronavirus buy, at the same time, markets take more risk in emerging economies.

The earnings season reflects this contradiction as well. On the one hand, earnings – at the close of this article – show a drop in sales of 0.50% and a decline in net profits of -0.05% in Europe’s Stoxx 600, with six sectors delivering negative growth. In the United States, S&P 500 earnings are similar, although slightly better. An increase in sales of 3.5% and profits of 1.31% with four sectors in negative growth. The reaction of stock markets is surprisingly bullish as long as the published results are mildly decent. When the lowest risk asset is extremely expensive, expensive stocks look relatively and optically cheap compared to hugely appreciated bonds.

Financial repression is also leading to “financial corporate inequality”. Multi mega-caps, big components of indices, get massively bid and their bonds are sold at the lowest yields on record, while mid-sized companies face relatively poorer demand and limited access to credit and liquidity.  A large part of the excess liquidity goes directly to large stocks and big corporation bonds due to the massive purchase of passive instruments linked to the main indices.

We cannot fall into the trap of ignoring the macroeconomic reality and the trend in earnings just because “everything goes up”. Additionally, we cannot ignore monetary reality either. Market euphoria should not make us ignore major problems disguised under the monetary laughing gas, and we need to continue looking for relative value opportunities without ignoring the risks but without ignoring the monetary evidence.

Liquidity injections and rate reductions are likely to increase. The monetary history of the world reminds us that states and central banks never turn back when it becomes clear that their policies do not work, they always accelerate… Until the placebo effect stops working. Predicting when will it happen is almost impossible. We just know it does stop. Until then, falling into the monetary trap of no perceived risk is as dangerous as being out of the market. In an increasingly difficult environment, the prudent investor must constantly be aware of the risks to seek attractive long-term opportunities.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0796 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.44  UP 0.520 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2993   DOWN   0.0007  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3228 DOWN .0027 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 2 basis points, trading now BELOW the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0796 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 7.57 POINTS OR 0.32% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,40%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.61 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.57 POINTS OR 0.32%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 40% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 206.89  POINTS OR 0.89%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1608.00

silver:$18.31-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.56% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.00 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.49 UP 6 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.27% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.06%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.27%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.95 UP 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 68 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.42% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.37% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0793  DOWN     .0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 111.21 UP 1.285 OR YEN DOWN 129  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2936 DOWN .0063 POUND DOWN 63  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP  24 basis points to 1.3229

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9983    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0024  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0784 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.06%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.56 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.01 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.67 UP 23  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 74.18  1.00%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 102.69 POINTS OR .75%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 53.36 POINTS 0.88%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 74.40 POINTS or 0.74%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 254.91 POINTS OR 1.01%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.34 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.10 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.58  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.27 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 27 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.66//

 

 

BRENT :  62.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.01  up one basis pt…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.57…plus one basis pt.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0808 ( UP 13   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.34 up 1.417 (YEN down 142 BASIS POINTS/..

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.59 UP 15 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2922 DOWN 78  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0839

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.53   DOWN 0.32 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 32 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3223 UP 32 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9983  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0128 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

 

The Dow closed UP 115.84 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 84.44 POINTS OR 0.87%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.38 CLOSED DOWN .45

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.694%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Up, Bonds Up, Gold Up, Dollar Up, Oil Up, Virus-Death-Count Up!

Another day, another new record high in stocks as the Powell-Put is well and truly priced in to save the world no matter what – global pandemic, no problem, hold my beer… the assumption seems to be that The Fed will print again and it’s more than priced in…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot The Odd Market Out!

 

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s this!

Charlie Bilello

@charliebilello

Fed: easing
ECB: easing
BOE: easing
BOJ: easing
SNB: easing
Denmark: easing
Australia: easing
Brazil: easing
Russia: easing
India: easing
China: easing
Korea: easing
Indonesia: easing
Turkey: easing
Mexico: easing
Chile: easing
Philippines: easing
South Africa: easing

View image on Twitter

Does make you wonder, eh?

Gold outperformed post-Fed Minutes as stocks lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks limped lower overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were all higher with Italy’s FTSEMIB leading the week’s charge…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets were all higher again today, once again led by new record highs in Nasdaq (and The Dow briefly lifted back into the green for the week, but slid back into the close)… stocks closed weak for the 2nd day in a row after a solid day.

Source: Bloomberg

Record highs for S&P and Nasdaq

It would appear the world and their pet millennial has decided that owning stocks is for loser boomers and the real game is buying calls as the put/call ratio across US equity markets has collapsed back near its lowest in 7 years (and lowest ever)…“There are very, very high volumes in options markets – and historically you don’t see volume spikes when the market is going up. People are buying options to get exposure to rallies, not to hedge.”

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL erased all of the losses from its outlook cut…

Cyclicals dominated Defensives today…

Source: Bloomberg

And momo is dominating value this year…

Source: Bloomberg

HY Credit is not playing along with the equity exuberance…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were mixed today with the short-end slightly higher and long-end slightly lower…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y yield hovered around 2.00% today…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve remains inverted (which if The Fed’s Neel Kashkari is to be believed, is a sign of confidence that the Fed knows what it’s doing)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar extended its recent gains – up 11 of the last 13 days… to the highest since Oct 2019

Source: Bloomberg

The yen tumbled today to its weakest since May (biggest drop in JPY vs USD since Aug 13th), decoupling notably from gold…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were flat today, but Ether and Vitcoin back towards unch on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably both Bitcoin and Gold have been rising as the volume of global negative-yielding debt has resurged…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver remains the week’s best performer but oil surged again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold continued to rally, pushing to its highest since March 2013 against the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

And back near record highs against the yen…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI extended yesterday’s gains ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

And while Gold and silver are doing ‘ok’, Palladium hit a new record high today (at $2850), up almost 40% YTD…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, you have to laugh…

Source: Bloomberg

And it looks like Nasdaq 10k is inevitable now…

Source: Bloomberg

And ahead of tonight’s debate, it appears Bloomberg has peaked and Bernie is the man…

Source: Bloomberg

And as Bernie leads so the odds of a Trump win in November surges…

Source: Bloomberg

END
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

FOMC Minutes See Rates “Appropriate”, Warn Of “Elevated” Asset Levels, Suggest ‘NotQE’ Tapering Imminent

Since The Fed’s statement on January 29th, the severity of the Covid-19 virus has escalated exponentially, economic data has disappointed (even before the virus’ impact), companies have issued widespread warnings about their outlooks (due to China-driven consumption slumps and supply-chain disruptions)… and the Nasdaq is up over 6.5%!!!

Clearly the market sees Powell as some omnipotent hero capable of printing anti-virals and making the world right again.

Powell to market: “hold my beer”

The market seems convinced The Fed will re-expand the balance sheet…

Fed Speakers have been very active this week:

  • Neel Kashkari, president Minneapolis Fed, non-voter in 2020 – Regarding the coronavirus, “All of the data that we get from China, we look at it with somewhat of a skeptical eye.”
  • “As they’ve revised the number of cases, that hasn’t boosted our confidence that there’s full transparency.”
  • Raphael Bostic, president Atlanta Fed, non-voter in 2020 – “All in all, I would say the economy is in a pretty good place and it can go on.”
  • Loretta Mester, president Cleveland Fed, voter in 2020 – Economy to grow at or a “little above” trend this year. “I think we’re in a good spot.”
  • Robert Kaplan, president Dallas Fed, voter in 2020 – Monetary policy is “roughly appropriate.” Expects rates to remain on hold through 2020 despite risks posed by the coronavirus.
  • Loretta Mester, president Cleveland Fed, voter in 2020 – Coronavirus risk hasn’t changed her GDP forecast of about 2% in 2020. “There could be spillover to the U.S. economy” in first quarter.

Notably, the market has held on to a more dovish bias since the FOMC statement, as stocks have soared on the back of this Powell-Put…

Source: Bloomberg

Traders are not expecting much from the Minutes beyond what was discussed during the post-statement press conference. All eyes will be on any dovish bias towards coronavirus risks or hawkish bias on the reduction in the repo facility or its balance sheet expansion.

High level observations include:

  • Economic growth expected to continue at a “moderate pace”
  • Easing of trade tensions, receding Brexit risks and stabilising global growth as reducing downside risks but also generally expected trade uncertainty to remain somewhat elevated
  • Participants agree coronavirus warranted close watching
  • Participants expected payroll employment to expand at health pace this year; consumption spending would likely remain on a firm footing
  • Once reserves reach ample levels, regular open market operations would be required over time to accommodate trend growth in Fed’s liabilities and maintain ample reserves
  • Committee should resume before long its discussion of the role that repo operations might play in an ample-reserves regime, including the possible creation of a standing repo facility
  • Expressed concern that introducing a symmetric inflation range could be misperceived

Federal Reserve officials viewed their current monetary policy as appropriate “for a time” while they remained on guard against domestic and global risks that could slow the longest U.S. expansion on record.

“Participants discussed how maintaining the current policy stance for a time could be helpful in supporting U.S. economic activity and employment in the face of global developments that have been weighing on spending decisions,”

BUT…

  • *FED MINUTES: CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN 2Q FOR T-BILL TAPERING
  • *FED MINUTES: TERM REPOS COULD BE PHASED OUT AFTER APRIL

And more problematically: Staff Saw Asset Valuations Had Increased To ‘Elevated Level’

The staff provided an update on its assessments of potential risks to financial stability. On balance, the financial vulnerabilities of the U.S. financial system were characterized as moderate. The staff judged that asset valuation pressures had increased in recent months to an elevated level. Asset valuation pressures were characterized as fairly widespread across a number of markets, similar to the situation in much of 2017 and 2018.

“Many” Fed officials see signs the economy is not at full employment.

Many participants pointed to the strong performance of labor force participation despite the downward pressures associated with an aging population, and several raised the possibility that there was some room for labor force participation to rise further.

There were no less than 8 mentions of the coronavirus as a potential global risk factor (read: reason to cut rates):

“uncertainties about the outlook remained, including those posed by the outbreak of the coronavirus.”

“early GDP releases showed a pickup in growth in China and some other Asian economies, though news of the coronavirus outbreak raised questions about the sustainability of that pickup.”

“Late in the period, concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and uncertainty about its potential economic effect weighed negatively on investor sentiment and led to moderate declines in the prices of risky assets.”

” Late in the period, equity prices retraced some of their gains, as concerns about the spread of the coronavirus weighed negatively on risk sentiment.”

“some trade uncertainties had diminished recently, and there were some signs of stabilization in global growth. Nonetheless, uncertainties about the outlook remained, including those posed by the outbreak of the coronavirus

” The threat of the coronavirus, in addition to its human toll, had emerged as a new risk to the global growth outlook, which participants agreed warranted close watching.”

And going back to asset prices:

Overall movements in stock prices varied widely across economic sectors, with stocks of firms in the information technology and utilities sectors significantly outperforming aggregate indexes, while stock prices of firms in the energy sector declined markedly

Finally, the paragraph some viewed as the most important in the FOMC minutes. As Arkera FX strategist Viraj Patel writes, “in relation to repo operations, Fed want to communicate the temporary & technical nature of recent repo ops. One way is to have a nimble strategy (turn it on/off at appropriate times). Problem is it’ll create more confusion.”

Participants discussed the open market operations that the Federal Reserve had undertaken since September to implement monetary policy, as well as forthcoming operational measures. Participants agreed that the operations undertaken by the Desk since mid-September had been effective in helping to stabilize conditions in money markets and that implementation of the plan that the Committee announced in October to purchase Treasury bills and conduct repo operations had proceeded smoothly.

Participants observed that enactment of this plan had succeeded in replenishing reserve balances to levels at or above those prevailing in early September 2019 and in ensuring continued control of the federal funds rate. Many participants stressed that, as reserves approached durably ample levels, the need for sizable Treasury bill purchases and repo operations would diminish and that such operations could be gradually scaled back or phased out. Beyond that point, regular open market operations would be required over time in order to accommodate the trend growth in the Federal Reserve’s liabilities and maintain an ample level of reserves.

Participants who commented on the Desk’s proposal for the transition to the ample-reserves regime indicated that they were comfortable with that proposal. They remarked that the details of the Committee’s plans would be adjusted as appropriate to support effective implementation of monetary policy. Participants noted that it would be important to continue to communicate to the public that open market operations now and in the period ahead were technical operations aimed at achieving and maintaining ample reserves and that any adjustments to those operations were not intended to represent a change in the stance of monetary policy.

Several participants suggested that the Committee should resume before long its discussion of the role that repo operations might play in an ample-reserves regime, including the possible creation of a standing repo facility. A couple of these participants cited the potential for such a facility to reduce the banking system’s demand for reserves over the longer term.

Full FOMC Minutes below (pdf link):

ii)Market data/USA

USA producer prices rise at the fastest pace and this is a forerunner for real price inflation

(zerohedge)

US Producer Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 9 Months As Service Costs Soar

US Producer Prices spike 0.5% MoM in January, sending the Final Demand data up 2.1% YoY -the hottest inflationary print since April 2019.

Source: Bloomberg

Producer prices excluding food, energy, and trade services – a measure preferred by economists because it strips out the most volatile components – rose 0.4% from the prior month, the most since April, and 1.5% from a year earlier.

In January, 90% of the increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.7% jump in services costs.

Under the hood, there was some significant swings…

Final demand services: The index for final demand services climbed 0.7 percent in January, the largest increase since rising 0.7 percent in October 2018.

Forty percent of the January increase in the index for final demand services can be traced to margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing, which jumped 10.3 percent. The indexes for machinery and vehicle wholesaling; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; inpatient care; guestroom rental; and portfolio management also moved higher. Conversely, prices for airline passenger services decreased 5.8 percent. The indexes for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling and for  wireless telecommunication services also declined

Final demand goods:Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent in January, the fourth consecutive rise.

Product detail: A 13.9-percent rise for prices of iron and steel scrap was a major factor in the January advance in the index for final demand goods. Prices for fresh and dry vegetables; jet fuel; search,  detection, navigation, and guidance systems and equipment; and grains also moved higher. Conversely, the gasoline index decreased 1.5 percent. Prices for chicken eggs, diesel fuel, and motor vehicles also declined.

Not much Goldilocks here for Powell to rely on – it’s all hot!

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Should be lots of fun tonight as Bloomberg debates in the Nevada primaries.

(coursey zerohedge)

 

Trump Accuses “Mini Mike” Of “Sinister” Campaign Violations Ahead Of Dem Debate Debut

Three months after launching his campaign for president, billionaire media and financial data mogul Mike Bloomberg will make his debut in the Democratic debates Wednesday night as the remaining candidates face off in Las Vegas. He has yet to compete in a primary, but national polls have him in second place – behind only Bernie – and he has a good chance of winning in both Nevada and South Carolina.

Seeing the threat Bloomberg posed from the beginning, Trump long ago coined a moniker, “Mini Mike” Bloomberg, a dig on his rival’s diminutive stature. And in a Wednesday morning Tweet, Trump trotted it out once again, along with seemingly forgotten allegations that the candidate – who has promised to pour $1 billion of his massive fortune into the campaign, already having spent hundreds of millions of dollars on ads and campaign staff – violated FEC rules when Bloomberg News said it wouldn’t cover his campaign.

“Is corrupt Bloomberg News going to say what a pathetic debater Mini Mike is, that he doesn’t respect our great farmers, or that he has violated campaign finances laws at the highest and most sinister level with “payoffs” all over the place?” Trump said.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Is corrupt Bloomberg News going to say what a pathetic debater Mini Mike is, that he doesn’t respect our great farmers, or that he has violated campaign finance laws at the highest and most sinister level with “payoffs” all over the place?

Trump is of course referencing Bloomberg News’s decision not to cover its owners candidacy, a decision that led several staff members to resign. The bit about not respecting farmers is a reference to this, and the FEC violations apparently reference a complaint filed by the Republican National Lawyers Association.

The complaint alleges that Bloomberg News’s decision not to cover Bloomberg’s campaign is tantamount to “an impermissible in-kind corporate contribution”.

We’re not lawyers, but here is what the RNLA is alleging:

“Bloomberg News abandoned its ‘Guiding Principles’ when it announced that its news team would not investigate its owner and now presidential candidate, Michael Bloomberg, as well as the rest of the field of 2020 Democrat candidates but would continue to investigate President Trump. The announcement not only ignores basic and fair journalistic practices, it violates federal campaign finance law. The RNLA urges the Federal Election Commission to investigate the matter to determine the scope of Bloomberg’s violations.”

Now: Will we hear Bernie Sanders raise this issue during the debate? If we do, you can bet Trump is to blame.

Bloomberg’s campaign manager, a longtime Bloomberg journalist who was infamously sued by the president over a book he wrote, claimed that Trump’s tweet is evidence he’s ‘scared’ of Bloomberg.

Tim O’Brien

@TimOBrien

Translation: “I’m scared of Mike Bloomberg. And I really want Bernie Sanders to be the nominee.” https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1230143683699175424 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Is corrupt Bloomberg News going to say what a pathetic debater Mini Mike is, that he doesn’t respect our great farmers, or that he has violated campaign finance laws at the highest and most sinister level with “payoffs” all over the place?

Bloomberg is probably the least intimidating man on earth. He can’t even pet a dog without making a laughingstock of himself:

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

U.S. Democratic presidential hopeful Bloomberg unveils plan to rein in Wall Street

Among the most eye-catching proposals is a tax of 0.1% on transactions in stocks, bonds and payments on derivative contracts, bolstering the “Volcker Rule” ban on proprietary trading, and setting a trading speed limit – all of which take aim at Wall Street clients of Bloomberg Inc’s trading terminal.  The proposal also pledges to reinforce protections eroded by the Trump administration by boosting bank capital levels, toughening banks’ annual health checks, and restoring the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s rules curbing payday lending and ban on imposing mandatory arbitration on consumers…   https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-bloomberg-wallst-idUSKBN20C1P5

@seanmdav: After Stonewalling for Days, [Dem Sen.] Chris Murphy Finally Admits He Secretly Met with Iranian Regime in Munich

 

@cspan: President Trump: “I saw that…Senator Murphy met with the Iranians… Is there anything that I should know? Because that sounds like to me a violation of the Logan Act.”

 

Ex-DOJ Official [David Laufman] Named in FISA Abuse Report Signs Petition Calling on William Barr to Resign    https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/17/doj-official-fisa-report-william-barr-resign/

 

When Bloomberg News’s Reporting on China Was Challenged, Bloomberg Tried to Ruin Me for Speaking Out – I am one of the many women Mike Bloomberg’s company tried to silence through nondisclosure agreements. The funny thing is, I never even worked for Bloomberg.But my story shows the lengths that the Bloomberg machine will go to in order to avoid offending Beijing. Bloomberg’s company, Bloomberg LP, is so dependent on the vast China market for its business that its lawyers threatened to devastate my family financially if I didn’t sign an NDA silencing me about how Bloomberg News killed a story critical of Chinese Communist Party leaders. It was only when I hired Edward Snowden’s lawyers in Hong Kong that Bloomberg LP eventually called off their hounds after many attempts to intimidate me…https://theintercept.com/2020/02/18/mike-bloomberg-lp-nda-china/

 

@MZHemingwayMedia that spent years decrying any and all criticism of Robert Mueller and his team, claiming it was dangerous attack on rule of law, are now attempting to undercut and even remove Barr and Durham as they investigate pushers of false Russia collusion hoax. Funny, that.

 

Soros calls [in a letter to the FT] for Zuckerberg and Sandberg to be removed from Facebook because they are ‘helping Trump get re-elected’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8017403/George-Soros-calls-Mark-Zuckerberg-removed-Facebook.html

Let us close with this good interview of Kevin Shipp with Greg Hunter.

Trump Frustrated About Unprosecuted Deep State Crimes – Kevin Shipp

By Greg Hunter On February 19, 2020

President Trump’s frustration over lack of criminal Deep State prosecutions by his DOJ bubbled out to his more than 70 million Twitter followers this week. From Comey, McCabe, the phony dossier of the Russia Hoax and FISA abuse, it was all put out for the world to see. Trump called the Mueller report a “fraudulent investigation,” and Trump also tweeted, “….badly tainted . . . . Even Mueller’s statement to Congress that he did not see me to become the FBI Director (again), has been proven false. The whole deal was a total SCAM. If I wasn’t President, I’d be suing everyone all over the place…”

If prosecutions were getting done, President Trump would not be threatening to sue, says former CIA Officer Kevin Shipp. Shipp goes on to say, “What the President is doing is tweeting and communicating with the American people because the press is going to cover it up, and the Deep State is not going to let that sort of thing out. This is the beauty of his tweets . . . . He is telling us what is really going on. . . . These prosecutors, going all the way back to Mueller . . . have engaged in prosecutorial misconduct, and nothing has been done to them. This has been allowed to go on, and Trump is basically saying the evidence and information is there that is solid enough that he could sue if he wanted to . . . . The American people need to know about it, and when the American people know about it, people get up in arms and people start taking action. . . . . We, the American people, need to hold Attorney General Barr accountable for doing his job. We are all hoping AG Barr and John Durham are going to do their jobs, but what we have seen lately is quite concerning.”

There is no doubt some investigations are going on, but it appears factions of government are battling each other. Shipp, who is an expert in the Shadow Government and Deep State, says, “Having been in there, especially between the FBI and CIA, I saw internal wars. They are brutal between agencies and the FBI, CIA and DOJ. There is a brutal war going on within the government, and ruthless stuff going on in terms of actions. . . . The one investigation I think is going to happen, and then one investigation that will lead to indictments, is the investigation into Hunter Biden and his role in Ukraine and not just Ukraine, but his role in China and the $1.5 billion given to Hunter Biden’s company. We will see some indictments there, but there is a war within the Deep State. This has been going on since Trump was elected. The Deep State is going crazy, and the rats are jumping off the ship. This is what I love about President Trump. . . . No President has confronted the Deep State in history like Donald Trump with the exception of JFK, and that did not work out well for him.”

As far as the so-called whistleblower that started the impeachment hoax, Shipp says, “Call him in. He is not a whistleblower — period. The evidence is there that he is not. Bring him in and question him because he was an operational plant originally put in the White House under John Brennan (former CIA Director) under Obama. He was back in the White House in the Trump Administration, and they missed him, and then he engaged in an operation against the President of the United States with a false whistleblower report.”

The whistleblower’s boss, CIA Director Gina Haspel, is in on the operation and impeachment hoax, according to Shipp. Shipp says, “Haspel would have taken administrative penalties against him. She would have come out publicly and decried what he did, and she has done none of that. . . . In my opinion, it indicates she is supporting it, yes.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with counter-intelligence expert and former CIA Officer Kevin Shipp.

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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