FEB 20//GOLD UP $9.00 TO $1617.70//SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TO $18.34//GOLD UP FOR 10 OUT OF 11 TRADING DAYS//ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD AND SILVER AS PHYSICAL SUPPLIES ARE DISSIPATING//CORONAVIRUS COMMENTARIES FORM SOUTH KOREA, FROM JAPAN AND CHINA// ISRAEL WARNS IRAN TO GET OUT OF SYRIA OR ELSE/BRAIN DEAD TURKEY (THE MOUSE THAT ROARED) WARNS RUSSIA/MORE SWAMP STORIES TONIGHT E.G. ROGER STONE//

GOLD:$1617.70 UP $9.00    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

Silver:$18.34 DOWN 7 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

GOLD: 1611.60

 

SILVER: 18.43

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 9/286

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,607.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/19/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 02/21/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
159 C ED&F MAN CAP 2
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 2
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 188
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 16
661 C JP MORGAN 286 9
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C INTL FCSTONE 21
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 42
880 C CITIGROUP 1
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 286 286
MONTH TO DATE: 7,859

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 286 NOTICE(S) FOR 28600 OZ (0.8895 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7859 NOTICES FOR 785900 OZ  (24.444 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEB

 

 

52 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 260,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 286 for 1,430,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9591. DOWN 3 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $9579 DOWN 16 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 4775 CONTRACTS FROM 238,140 UP TO 242,852 WITH OUR STRONG 23 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED MUCH CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD VERY STRONG  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  1475 AND MAY: 189 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1664 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1664 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1664 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.320 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 23 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.430    MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 23 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 6,439 CONTRACTS. OR 32.19 MILLION OZ…..   WE HAD NO LONG LIQUIDATION AND WE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING, JUST A STRONG ACCUMULATION OF SILVER LONG CONTRACTS ENTERING BOTH EXCHANGES.

 

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION AND THAT EXPLAINS THE RISE IN COMEX OI DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

18,961 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 18961 CONTRACTS) OR 94.805 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1458 CONTRACTS OR 7.292 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 94.805 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.35% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          276,42 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     94.805 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4775, WITH THE STRONG 23 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /WEDNESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1664 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  SIZED:  6,439 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

i.e 1664 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 4775 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A STRONG 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.41 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.217 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 173% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 52 NOTICE(S) FOR  260,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.430 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7366 CONTRACTS TO 722,683 AND MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO  OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG ADVANCE OF $8.25 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// WE, FOR SURE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION.  TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S OUR BANKER FRIENDS BASICALLY COULD NOT FLEECE ANY LONGS FROM ANY GOLD ARENA AND THUS OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES!  

 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5531 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  0 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 5531; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 5531.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 722,683,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,697 CONTRACTS: 7366 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5531 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,697 CONTRACTS OR 1,269,700 OZ OR 39.49 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $8.25 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 39,49  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (GAIN $8.25). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AGAIN AS WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (5531) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI.(7,366):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  12,697 CONTRACTS

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 115,166 CONTRACTS OR 11,516,600 oz OR 358.21 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8858 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 358.21 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 358.21/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE:    928.40  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            358.21  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 7366 WITH THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK WEDNESDAY($8.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5531 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5531 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 12,697 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5531 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  7366 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 39.49 TONNES). AND THIS INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.25 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD UP $9.00  TODAY

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

A HUGE GAIN OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

 

 

FEB 20/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 931.60 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

FEB 20/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 4775 CONTRACTS FROM 238,077 UP TO 242,852 AND MUCH CLOSER TO  OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

EFP ISSUANCE 1664

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  1475:  AND MAY: 189; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1664 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 4775 CONTRACTS TO THE 1664 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 6439 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 32.19 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.430 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE STRONG 23 CENT RISE IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1664 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 54.75 POINTS OR 1.84%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.65 POINTS OR 0.17%   /The Nikkei closed UP 78.45 POINTS OR 0.34%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0226/Oil UP TO 53.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.34 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0226 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0467 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL PART I COMPLETE//DEALING WITH PART II..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

i)South Korea/ IRAN//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/GLOBE

The curve of cases is on an exponential rise.  The big news:  one death and its first, South Korea.  But more deadly is Iran which reported 2 deaths in the ancient cit of Qom.  Iran has no capability of stopping the spreading of the virus..they have no masks, no drugs.  This will spread to the entire country.

(zerohedge)

ii)SOUTH KOREA/Daegu City

With news of a super spreader, city streets of Daegu is totally deserted amid surge in Korean COVID 19 cases

(zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

i)JAPAN/CORONAVIRUS

The Japanese government gets a tongue lashing for their handling of the “Diamond Princess”  cruise liner/coronavirus fiasco

(zerohedge)

ii)JAPAN/CORONAVIRUS: TWO PASSENGERS DIE OF THE CORONAVIRUS

TWO passengers die of the coronavirus and a new update: 621 passengers have tested positive.  The quarantine was handled very badly and probably contributed to the death of these two passengers.

(zerohedge)

iii)JAPAN /CORONAVIRUS/YEN

The onset of the coronavirus will hammer Japan and the yen

Another must read…

(Bruce Wilds)

3C  CHINA

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS

Contrary to what Chinese officials are telling us, the real story is that China’s economy remains completely paralyzed and it looks like when measuring the entire country, demand is down a huge 66%

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

I)ISRAEL/IRAN/SYRIA

Israel warns Syria to force them to remove the Iranians from their soil.  If not Israel will begin a huge offensive action to which Bennett describes how Syria will turn into an Iranian Vietnam

(zerohedge)

ii)TURKEY/SYRIA/RUSSIA

Is Turkey that brain dead?  They are threatening to confront Russia with a large scale invasion of Idlib!!  For what reason? to annihilate the Syrian Kurds.  Erdogan has totally lost his marbles
(zerohedge)
iii)TURKEY/USA/RUSSIA
Brain dead Erdogan is in deep trouble..he now needs the USA patriot missiles to deter the Russians in Idlib. What happened to the purchases of Russian SAM 400’s
(zerohedge)

iv)IRAN/CORONAVIRUS/DEATH OF 2 IRANIANS IN QOM

Ladies and Gentlemen:

this is very scary!! Iran has closed borders, Two Iranians have died in Qom, from the coronavirus,  The patient was in great health and was 60 years old.  He was a teacher.  His brother, is very angry at the government for not letting anybody know that the virus had penetrated Iran.  The brother states that they have never left Iran and were not in contact with any Chinese people.

wow!

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)CORONAVIRUS/DIAMOND PRINCESS FIASCO

Luther explains how the poorly run quarantined ship infected more people because there were no professionals on board.

(Luther/Organic Prepper blog)

 

ii)A must read.. Brandon Smith on global centralization;  the cause of the crisis not the cure

(Brandon Smith

iii)FREIGHT SHIPPING INDEX//  ex-CORONAVIRUS

The coronavirus is taking its toll on the global economy:  the largest shipping decline since the great recession of 2009 and this is ex coronavirus data

(zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Gold has already taken off:  Craig Hemke responds that it is now time for silver to shine

(Craig Hemke)/Sprott/GATA

ii)Bill Murphy explains correctly that all dips are bought by longs especially in the physical one of London

(Bill Murphy/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)Even though the Chicago PMI fell last week, surprisingly in this soft data, the Philly Fed soared to its second highest level since the financial crisis.  Go figure..

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Democrat and Obama appointee Amy Berman Jackson sentences Roger Stone to 40 months in jail. She will rule shortly on whether Roger Stone can have a new trial.

Trump will no doubt wait in the wings ready to pardon him on this ridiculous sentence

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN GIGANTIC SIZED 7,366 CONTRACTS TO 722,683 MOVING MUCH CLOSER  TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GAIN IN OI WAS SET WITH A STRONG GAIN OF $8.25 IN GOLD PRICING //WEDNESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). ALSO WE HAD  ANOTHER STRONG EFP ISSUANCE, SO WE HAD ANOTHER FAILED ATTEMPT AT BANKER SHORT COVERING ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE HUGELY IN OPEN INTEREST..

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5,531 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 5,531,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5531 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED 12,697 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5531 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 7366 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AND COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. 

 

THE BANKERS WERUNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $8.25). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 12,697 CONTRACTS ….(39.49 TONNES)

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  12,697 CONTRACTS OR 1,269,700 OZ OR 39.49 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  722,683 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 72.26 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,247 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,250/2200 OR 102.16% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 4775 CONTRACTS FROM 238,077 UP TO 242,852 (AND WITHIN A WHISKER OF THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR HUGE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 23 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE MUST BE COGNIZANT THAT A GOOD NUMBER OF COMEX OI ARE SPREADERS.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

FEB IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 52 CONTRACTS SHOWING A GAIN OF 52 CONTRACTS//TUESDAY TRADING. WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 52 CONTRACT OR 240,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH THEY NEGATED A FIAT BONUS

 

 

March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 5022 contracts  DOWN TO 104,191

APRIL saw a gain of 112 contracts up to 554.

MAY had a good 8284 gain in oi to stand at 94,764.

 

 

 

We, today, had  52 notice(s)  for 260,000, OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 396,426 contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  322,705 contracts//low volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

 

FEB 20/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
6012.05 oz
Loomis
187 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
286 notice(s)
 28600 OZ
(0.8895 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
328 contracts
(32800 oz)
1.020 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7859 notices
785900 OZ
24.444 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had  1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else  nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  nil  oz

 

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Loomis: 6012.05 oz
187 kilobars

 

total gold withdrawals;  6012.05 oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

 

 

 

The front month of February saw its open interest RISE by 72 contracts UP to 614 contracts.  We had 66 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED 138 contracts or an additional 13,800 oz will stand for delivery here and THUS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH into London based forwards and thus negate a fiat bonus. The March non active contract month saw its OI FALL by 2 contracts DOWN to 2797.  The big April contract month saw its OI RISE by 4790 contracts UP to 532,692.

 

We had 286 notices filed today for 6600 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 286 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 286 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 9 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7859) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (614 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (286 x 100 oz per contract) equals 818,700 OZ OR 25.465 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (7859 x 100 oz)  + (614)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (286 x 100 oz )which equals 818,700 oz standing OR 25.465 in this  active delivery month of FEB. which is a still a great opening for gold // amount standing.

 

We GAINED 138 contracts or 13,800 oz REFUSED TO LEAVE USA shores to visit the Queen in London.  They REFUSED TO ACCEPT A London based gold forwards as well as NEGATING a fiat bonus

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 38.458 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.465 tonnes

 

total: 155.8095 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 23.7447 TONNES SETTLED (includes the 1.4847 tonnes of today)

 

IF WE ADD THE 7 DELIVERY MONTHS: 155.8095  tonnes

 

Thus:

155.8095 tonnes of delivery –

23.7447 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

=132.064 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 38.458 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,414,951.644 oz or  44.01 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,238,740.2  (38.530 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,238,740.2  (38.538 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,708,979.565 oz 270.88 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 20 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 80,683.05 oz
loomis

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
52
CONTRACT(S)
(260,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  286 contracts

1,430,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

i) into everybody else:  nil

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.09% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/321.964 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil   oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Loomis: 80,643.05 ,oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 80,683.05  oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  80.313 million

total dealer + customer silver:  321.884 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 52 contract(s) FOR 260,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 286 x 5,000 oz = 1,430,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (52) and the number of notices served upon today 52 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 286 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (52)- number of notices served upon today (52) x 5000 oz equals 1,430,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

We gained 52 contracts or an additional 260,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards and as such negated a fiat bonus 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 128,316 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 123,062 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 123,062 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 615 million  OZ  87.90% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.80% ((FEB 21/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.61% to NAV FEB 21/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.80%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.00 TRADING 15.55///DISCOUNT 2.82

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 20/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 931.60 tonnes

*IN LAST 766 TRADING DAYS: 5.86 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 666 TRADING DAYS: A NET 161.21 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

FEB 20.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

363.433 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.67/ and libor 6 month duration 1.69

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.73%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.77

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.04

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Reaches New All Time Record Over €1,500/oz, Breaks Over $1,600/oz and Silver Surges To $18.44/oz

Gold in Euros at All Time Record High

*Gold soared to new record highs in euros today at €1,500.11/oz and broke through the important $1,600 level to as high as $1,619.18 per ounce as traders and investors diversify out of more pandemic exposed risk assets to traditional safe havens

 

*Silver surged to $18.44/oz and is 4% higher this week, while palladium has gone parabolic and is up another 12% this week which takes the gains in 2020 alone to over 36%; we expect gold and particularly silver to follow palladium’s lead in the coming months (see just released video below)

*Safe haven gold is just a slight jump away from passing its February 8 intraday high and hitting its highest level in dollar terms in seven years; the all time record highs in gold in euro terms will be seen in other fiat currencies including dollars in the coming months.

*The coronavirus outbreak is impacting economic growth forecasts, earnings and hence stock prices. This is leading investors to seek out other sources of returns and diversify into hedging and safe haven assets

*Gold and silver bullion coins and bars are being acquired as the coronavirus’ rising death toll and likely economic impact pushes investors into traditional safe- haven investments which tend to do well in uncertain times and economic downturns.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold Builds on Powerful Rally

Citi sees gold topping $2,000 in next 12 to 24 months

UBS strategists say gold rally has more room to run

Gold eases, but holds near 7-year high as virus impact weighs

Asian stocks slip as virus’ regional spread spooks investors

China cuts benchmark lending rate to 4.05% as economy struggles to shake off virus shock

Trump economist says ‘uncertainty’ from trade disputes hit business investment

 

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

19-Feb-20 1609.50 1604.20, 1239.80 1237.80 & 1490.40 1486.29
18-Feb-20 1588.20 1589.85, 1218.47 1220.37 & 1467.34 1470.77
17-Feb-20 1580.30 1580.80, 1212.41 1215.16 & 1457.04 1458.29
14-Feb-20 1576.35 1581.40, 1209.60 1214.20 & 1453.08 1456.79
13-Feb-20 1575.00 1575.05, 1213.55 1207.59 & 1447.27 1450.94
12-Feb-20 1566.75 1563.70, 1206.55 1206.55 & 1434.83 1434.54
11-Feb-20 1567.70 1570.50, 1212.77 1211.33 & 1436.01 1438.26
10-Feb-20 1574.05 1573.20, 1219.26 1215.93 & 1437.11 1439.64
07-Feb-20 1568.30 1572.65, 1212.45 1214.56 & 1432.33 1433.63

 

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

-END-

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Gold has already taken off:  Craig Hemke responds that it is now time for silver to shine

(Craig Hemke)/Sprott/GATA

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Waiting on Comex silver

 Section: 

11:08a ET Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver and the shares of monetary metals mining companies have been lagging gold, the TF Metal Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money, but he gives reasons why that may change soon. His analysis is headlined “Waiting on Comex Silver” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/waiting-on-comex-silver-craig-hemke-19-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Bill Murphy explains correctly that all dips are bought by longs especially in the physical one of London

(Bill Murphy/GATA)

All gold dips quickly bought lately, GATA chairman says, but silver is most undervalued asset

 Section: 

5p ET Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In an interview with Wealth Research Group, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy notes that all dips in the gold price in recent months have been quickly bought, indicating tightness in supply. But, Murphy adds, the world’s most undervalued asset is silver. The interview is 21 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaPepEKQdog

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0226/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0367   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 54.75 POINTS OR 0.35%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 46.65 POINTS OR 0.17%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 78.45 POINTS OR 0.34%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.81/Euro FALLS TO 1.0795

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.93/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.45 and Brent: 59.34

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.44%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.91% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.35: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.98

3k Gold at $1617.80 silver at: 18.38   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 23/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.76

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.93 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9836 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0614 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.44%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.54% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.98%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0928..deadly to Turkey

Dollar Roars, Futures Slide On Surge In New Virus Corona Cases In Japan, South Korea

S&P futures slipped, Asian stocks eased and European markets were a sea of red even as the relentless dollar juggernaut continued on Thursday, as virus cases rose in South Korea and Japan even as China added more stimulus via a rate cut to support its economy.

US equity futures first pushed higher reaching just shy of 3,400 before turning lower after Japan reported two deaths from passengers holed up on the formerly quarantined Diamond Princess viral cruise ship, with South Korea confirming its first fatality from the disease shortly after. China reported a large drop in new cases which was due to yet another change in the definition of “infection”, but that came together with a jump in infections in South Korea, two apparent deaths in Japan and researchers finding that the virus spreads more easily than previously believed

Corporate earnings also disappointed with ViacomCBS slipping in the premarket after its quarterly revenue missed estimates. Underwhelming results from AXA SA and Telefonica SA dragged the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lower. In Asia, stock gains in Shanghai, Tokyo and Sydney were countered by declines in the rest of the major markets.

European shares eased from record highs on Thursday, as a raft of disappointing earnings added to fears about the global impact of the coronavirus outbreak after research suggested it was more contagious than previously thought. The European Stoxx 600 dropped 0.3%, led by a 1.2% fall in insurance stocks after Swiss Re posted a lower-than-expected annual profit. The reinsurer’s shares dropped 4.2% to a two-week low. A 4.6% fall for Spain’s Telefonica weighed on the benchmark index after the telecoms group said one-off charges in Mexico and Argentina hurt its annual profit. The stock was also the biggest decliner on the Spanish bourse. Joining a growing list of companies to put a number on the impact from the coronavirus epidemic, Franco-Dutch airline Air France-KLM SA forecast an earnings hit of as much as 200 million euros ($216 million) by April. Its shares fell 6.5%.

Analysts said European equity investors were in a wait-and watch mode ahead of flash readings of the PMI on manufacturing activity in the euro zone, due on Friday. “You’ve got the manufacturing PMIs tomorrow, which is probably the most important figure this week because they may show the early impact of the coronavirus on demand and the supply chain,” said Connor Campbell, analyst at Spreadex.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.6%, led by falls of 0.8% on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s KOSPI.  Markets in the region were mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rising, while Thailand’s SET and South Korea’s Kospi index fell. Trading volume for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 26% above the monthly average. In the latest news about the health emergency, South Korea reported its first death from the coronavirus, with infected patients doubling in one dayJapan confirmed two deaths from a quarantined cruise ship. The Topix gained 0.2%, with Yuki Gosei Kogyo and V-Cube rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.8% to an almost one-month high

China cut its benchmark lending rate earlier on Thursday, as anticipated, with both the 1 and 5 Year LPR cut by 5 bps, adding to a slew of measures in recent weeks aimed at cushioning the virus’ impact on the economy.

That kept Chinese stocks supported, while Japan’s Nikkei advanced 1% as an overnight slide in the yen is a boon for exporters, though the mood was more nervous elsewhere.

“I think there’s a realisation that before we get all the stimulus measures that people have been frothing about, you’ve got to deal with a lot of companies that are finding themselves with impairment charges or indeed solvency problems,” said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies in Hong Kong, before adding something we have been pounding the table on for the past month: “Markets have taken a step back because the authorities won’t do any major stimulus until they are completely sure the virus has stopped, because there’s no point in doing it when people are sitting at home.”

Bingo. If and when the algos figure this out, watch out below.

China had 394 new cases on Wednesday, the lowest since Jan. 23, after Beijing reversed an earlier, broader definition of “infection” to represent fewer cases and get people to get back to work; so far that approach has failed. More than 2,100 people have died from the coronavirus in China, with eight deaths in other countries but not including the two from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan.

However, overnight the attention was not on China but rather its neighboring countries: South Korea’s government reported 31 new cases of coronavirus on Thursday, after a new outbreak traced to a church, bringing the number of people infected in the country to 104.

In Japan, where the government has come under intense criticism for its handling of an outbreak on a cruise ship carrying about 3,700 people, broadcaster NHK reported that two passengers in their 80s had died.

In FX, dollar’s strength climbed to the highest level in more than four months and the Swiss franc gained on haven bids while the yen extended its slump, weakening past 112 per dollar, with market participants ascribing a host of reasons, ranging from disappointing economic news to early positioning before the fiscal year-end next month.

The Yen plunged nearly 1.4% against the dollar, its sharpest fall in six months, and 2% against the Norwegian krone – its sharpest daily drop in almost three years. “Nearness to China and dependence on China have not helped the yen as a risk-off. We have seen the yen and gold diverging for a while and this may not be the end of it,” said Shafali Sachdev, head of FX in Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “The kind of classic correlations between U.S. yields and the yen, those have been kind of breaking down…we need to see past this virus situation to see whether the yen will regain its safe-haven status.” The skittish mood had investors punishing the Australian dollar, sending it down 0.6% to an 11-year low of $0.6633 after a surprise rise in unemployment.

The flight to safety was observed across most assets, with treasuries and European higher and gold surging to a seven-year high.

Elsewhere, oil prices added to overnight gains while gold loitered around $1,609 per ounce. U.S. crude last sat 25 cents firmer at $53.54 per barrel and Brent added 16 cents to $59.28.

Economic data include initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey. The Southern Company, Newmont and Hormel Foods are due to report earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 3,385.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 432.58
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 167.59
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 551.21
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 23,479.15
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,674.48
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 27,609.16
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.8% to 3,030.15
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 41,157.48
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,162.49
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,195.50
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to -0.422%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.0803
  • Brent Futures up 0.07% to $59.16/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 0.787%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 0.259%
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $59.18/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,610.13
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.71

Top Overnight News

  • The global death toll climbed to 2,129 and the number of confirmed cases reached 75,730. Hubei province reported a sharp drop in new cases after another change in the way China diagnoses infections, raising questions over the reliability of the data
  • U.K. retail sales jumped the most in almost two years in January, ending the worst run for British stores on record and adding to signs of an economic rebound. Sales excluding auto fuel rose 1.6% from December, the biggest increase since May 2018. Economists were expecting a rise of 0.8%.
  • The bond market is signaling approval of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s planned spending spree. With the March 11 budget looming into view, the average cost of government borrowing is close to the lowest levels on record
  • The world’s largest container shipping company, is positioning itself for a strong rebound in two months, based on an expectation that the fallout of the coronavirus on global trade may soon peak
  • Indonesia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% after a three-month pause as the spread of the coronavirus threatens growth in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy

Asian equity markets traded mixed having pared a bulk of earlier gains despite the promising lead from Wall Street which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq print fresh record highs. The optimistic sentiment in the region faded following the number of coronavirus cases in South Korea rising by 60%, and amid reports of two deaths from the Japanese cruise ship. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+0.3%) was buoyed by its large-cap mining and energy sector, following recent gains in the respective complexes. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially posted gains of over 1.5% with upside originally fuelled by a considerably weaker JPY, although the index later pulled back with a chunk of its transport stocks in the red, and amid reports that multinational companies are avoiding travel to and from Japan over fears that the country will be the next hotspot in the outbreak. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.9%) erased opening gains and underperformed as a bulk of its stocks reversed course into negative territory, and with its heavyweight financial sector on the defensive. Meanwhile, Shanghai Comp (+1.0%) rebounded with a vengeance in late trade and topped the 3000 mark for the first time since before the Lunar New Year, after initially swinging between gains and losses despite the expected stimulus measures by the PBoC, as traders were cautious following the case jump in South Korea and deaths on the cruise ship off Yokohama, with the former prompting South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.5%) to trade with losses of almost 1.0% at one point.

Top Asian News

  • China Nears Takeover of Troubled HNA as Virus Rocks Economy
  • 7- Eleven Owner Said in Exclusive Talks for Marathon’s Speedway
  • Ping An Insurance Full Year Net Income Misses Estimates
  • Vietnam to Order Loan Interest Rate Cuts for Virus-Hit Companies

European indices kicked the session off on a relatively directionless footing before seeing modest downticks amid increased fears over the spread of coronavirus outside of China. Focus in recent trade has been placed upon developments in Japan and South Korea with the former reporting two passenger deaths aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the coast of Yokohama, whilst the latter announced a marked pickup in coronavirus cases (total now stands at 104 vs. Prev. 51) and its first death. Sectoral performance has been a mixed bag thus far with price action largely dictated by a slew of large cap earnings, which has seen Telefonica (-5.7%), act as a drag on the Telecom sector following disappointing 2019 profit metrics. Elsewhere, to the upside, post-earnings, Smith & Nephew (+8.5%), Schneider Electric (+5.2%), Fresenius Medical (+4.2%), Fresenius SE (+4.2%), Maersk (+3.7%), Lloyds (+3.3%), Bouygues (+2.7%) and BAE Systems (+2.5%) lead the charge for the Stoxx 600. To the downside, Air France (-8.9%), disappointing earnings release has hampered other airline names, including Deutsche Lufthansa (-3.2%) and RyanAir (-1.8%), whilst corporate updates from Swiss Re (-4.9%) and Axa (-3.0%) has triggered losses in their respective shares.

Top European News

  • Irish Lawmakers Begin Search For PM After Sinn Fein Surge
  • Maersk CEO Predicts ‘Sharp’ Rebound After Coronavirus Peaks
  • Britons Return to the Stores After Johnson Election Victory
  • Death of Bond Vigilantes Clears Path for U.K. Fiscal Splurge

In FX, USD began the session on a firmer footing once again after taking out overnight highs of 99.778 to print a session high thus far of 99.875. Once again, there has been little in the way of fresh fundamental catalysts behind the USD move with gains instead largely as a result of weakness elsewhere, namely the JPY. Early doors in Europe, USD/JPY took out the overnight high of 111.59 before taking out 112.00 to the upside (current high of 112.18), which could open up a test of the April 26th high at 112.40. Explanations for the JPY have varied with some leaning on the traditional arguments of selling of JPY by Japanese pension planners to buy US assets; however, others favour focusing on recent disappointing data prints for Japan (Monday’s GDP figures) and concerns over the ramifications of the coronavirus for the nation, something which could impair the Tokyo Olympics this summer. If JPY declines continue to accelerate, 100.00 in the DXY looks a reasonable bet, with 100.50 marking the April 18th 2017 high.

  • EUR – Price action for the shared currency has largely been dictated by the “King USD” after gains in the greenback knocked the pair below yesterday’s low of 1.0782, with the session trough at 1.0778 (gap support from April 2017) at the time of writing. Should the EUR continue to fall victim to the USD, technicians’ eye 1.0761 which was the 20th April 2017 high, with not much in the way of support until the 1.0700 figure. From a fundamental perspective, the main highlight on today’s docket from the Eurozone comes via the minutes from the January ECB meeting (full preview available via the research suite of the website). That said, participants are unlikely to glean too much in the way of fresh insight from the Bank with the meeting itself providing little in the way of fireworks as policymakers tread water ahead of the upcoming strategic review. Furthermore, greater policy guidance from the ECB since the meeting has come from commentary via President Lagarde who noted that low interest rates and low inflation have significantly reduced the scope for the ECB and other central banks to ease monetary policy in the face of an economic downturn.
  • GBP – Momentum for GBP early doors was driven by the pick-up in the USD before the pound dug in and reclaimed 1.2900 to the upside after printing a low of 1.2874, just above the multi-week low of 1.2873 seen on February 10th. Sentiment for the GBP was also bolstered by encouraging retail sales metrics, with all four metrics exceeding expectations amid a pickup in clothing and footwear sales, helping to add to the evidence-pile for those championing the so-called “Boris-bounce”. That said, gains for GBP were relatively fleeting with perhaps some in the market apprehensive amid simmering tensions between the UK and EU this week ahead of upcoming trade negotiations at the beginning of next month.
  • AUD/NZD – Focus for the antipodes has largely fallen on AUD given overnight employment figures which saw modest downside in AUD/USD upon the release despite the headline employment change topping estimates (led by full-time employment), as the unemployment rate rose more than expectations, although money market pricing for a March RBA rate cut was largely unchanged. AUD went on to take out stops at 0.6650 before printing an eventual low at 0.6623 (10yr low!); note there is a large AUD 2.1bln expiry in AUD/USD at 0.6700. NZD has also been weighed on during the APAC and EU session in sympathy with Aussie losses with the NZD/USD pair being dragged from just shy of 0.6400 to take out 0.6350 to the downside and print a low of 0.6335.
  • CNY/KRW/TRY/ZAR – USD/CNH saw little action on the expected PBoC LPR rate reductions, although the pair saw upside amid a firmer Dollar, and stabilised ~7.0300. China has continued to reassure the market over the fallout of the coronavirus with the Commerce Ministry stating they will roll out targeted support measures in a timely way to mitigate the impact on firms and consumption. However, some in the market have raised concern over newly revised guidelines by Chinese authorities in classifying coronavirus designations, something which could potentially obfuscate matters further. On the coronavirus footing, USD/KRW rose from ~1191.00 and breached mild resistance at 1198.40 (3rd Feb high) before eclipsing 1200.00 to the upside during the APAC session amid increased coronavirus cases in South Korea. Elsewhere, overnight, TRY experienced a spiker higher amid thinned volumes and alongside broad EM FX weakness, USD/TRY immediately rose from ~6.0800 to levels north of 6.1000 before completely paring the move to reside on a 6.09 handle. Finally, ZAR has seen some softness relative to EM peers amid an announcement from ESKOM that rolling blackouts will be impose in South Africa from today until Saturday, something that will act as a further drag on activity ahead of next week’s budget announcement.

In commodities, WTI and Brent prices are essentially unchanged on the day with less that USD 0.15/bbl of variation from flat at present. Newsflow specific to the complex has been slow for much of the session, with price action initially moving in tandem with the overall risk picture as main equity bourses are similarly little moved overall. Focus overnight was on the ongoing demand concerns stemming from the coronavirus, with reports this morning of a death in South Korea prompting some mild weakness; as well as the private crude inventories which printed a larger than expected headline build. Although, the internals did feature surprise/bigger draws for gasoline and distillates respectively. As we await Russia’s stance on the JTC’s recommendations interest was piqued by remarks from Energy Minister Novak but to no avail on the production cut recommendations; although, he did firmly push back on the need for an early meeting which, alongside the short proximity to the original March date, means a early meeting is all but off the table. Looking ahead, today sees the release of the EIA weekly crude report at the slightly later time of 16:00GMT/11:00EST; expectations are for a build of 2.49mln which would be just over half of the API’s 4.2mln build last night; while internal estimates are in proximity to those forecast for last nights numbers. Moving to metals, where spot gold is currently little changed but is comfortably above the USD 1600/oz mark, with a YTD high of USD 1612.93/oz yesterday which takes us back to levels not seen since 2013

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 11, prior 17
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210,000, prior 205,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.72m, prior 1.7m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, prior 56; Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 65.7
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.4%, prior -0.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Back from a 2-day trip to Madrid and a bit upset that in the season that Liverpool potentially break all records for winning streaks and points accumulation, I go to watch a game they lose! Thankfully there is a second leg. I got home last night to a daughter screaming due to a 39.2C temperature and a frazzled wife with tonsillitis who in half term has had to look after all three terrors without help due to our nanny being bed bound and at home in her last week. It’s fair to say my wife wasn’t particularly interested in me going through how sad I was that Liverpool had lost the night before and where they could improve for the second leg.

Talking of bruising encounters, the Democratic nomination debate in Nevada has just finished. This was the first featuring Mr Bloomberg and it’s fair to say that he had to absorb a large amount of attacks from the other candidates on his past record as Mayor of New York and lack of Democratic credentials. Predictit’s odds on Bloomberg winning the nomination fell from 29% to 16% at one point during the course of the debate, with no one candidate gaining particularly from that decline. The former mayor is not on the ballot in Nevada on Saturday so we will have to wait to hear from voters on Bloomberg. It will be interesting to see if there is any hit to his polling, because it is likely that – given the amount of money he has spent on TV ads already – many more Super Tuesday voters are likely to see his ads than have watched last night. Bloomberg has already spent more on the first few months of his 2020 presidential campaign than former President Barack Obama did on his entire 2012 bid.

Staying with overnight news, Asian markets are seeing a little increase in concerns about the coronavirus as 2 people from the quarantined ship died in Japan and South Korea reported another 31 confirmed cases thereby raising worries over the spread of the virus outside China. However, China’s Hubei province reported the smallest increase in confirmed cases (349) in recent times but it has to be interpreted with some caution as it came on the back of another change in the counting methodology. Total deaths in China now stand at 2,118 with confirmed cases at 74,576.

On a related note, the PBoC continued with its easing measures to support the Chinese economy by lowering the 1yr loan prime rate to 4.05% from 4.15% previously and the 5yr loan prime rate to 4.75% from 4.80%. On a more micro level, Qantas Airways said overnight that it is slashing capacity on international flights to China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and Thailand by 15% and freezing recruitment as the coronavirus drives down travel demand. It added that the reductions will remain in effect until at least the end of May.

A quick refresh of our screens shows that markets are trading mixed this morning with the Nikkei (+0.38%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.75%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.69%) and Kospi (-0.47%) are down. However, the Nikkei is off its early highs of as much as +1.73% on the news of the 2 deaths mentioned above. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.14% and yields on 10yr USTs are down -1.3bps.

This comes after normal service resumed in markets yesterday with US equities back to hitting new all-time highs after shrugging off the Apple Q1 revenue warning. The S&P 500 finished +0.47% higher last night while the NASDAQ rallied to the tune of +0.87% and is only 1.86% away from 10,000 and a landmark that will be sure to get a lot of press. In fact it was a very strong day for tech with semiconductor stocks up +2.57% – the sixth gain of at least 2% this year – with the NYSE FANG index up +2.33% for its seventh consecutive daily gain. Apple, Amazon and Google now have a combined market cap of $3.54tn – nearly half a trillion more than the CAC and DAX combined.

It’s not just the US that is getting its turn in the spotlight though. The STOXX 600 yesterday closed at a new record high following a +0.83% gain. The MSCI EM index is also up +5.08% from the recent lows and within 12% of the all-time highs. What’s curious about all this though is that Gold continues to rise – up +0.63% yesterday (+6.22% YTD) finishing at the highest level in USD terms since March 2013 – and the yield curve continues to flatten with 2s10s down -0.7bps to +13.8bps and to the flattest level since November. 30y Treasuries are also trading only a shade above 2% and are down -37.7bps this year already.

So risk on and many safe havens performing well. China stimulus stories appeared to provide the sufficient ammo risk needed yesterday with an HNA nationalisation story in the early afternoon probably the most interesting. Indeed Bloomberg reported that the government of Hainan is in talks to take control of HNA with the core airline assets to be potentially sold off to other local companies. It’s possible that we get an update very soon. So, clearly the bail-out is a near term positive but it does highlight some of the stresses and leverage in China’s financial system and economy.

Back to yesterday, where European bonds generally rallied (Bunds -1.1bps) but with BTPs the exception (+2.2bps) possibly partly on news that global investors sold EU3.8b of Italian bonds and bills in December, in the latest data from the European Central Bank. Treasuries yields climbed slightly by +0.03bps to 1.564%. Credit also continued to tighten. Renault bonds were weaker however after the car maker was another to fall victim to a ratings downgrade, pushing bonds into fallen angel territory. Indeed Renault’s near EUR5bn of bonds will enter EUR HY indices next month and will immediately become a top 10 issuer making up just shy of 2% of the index.

The FOMC released the recent January meeting minutes yesterday, and there was little new news. There was no discussion of the impact of the coronavirus and the Committee mostly stayed on message that policy remains appropriate barring a material reassessment. Officials like Chair Powell have been saying that it’s still too early to assess the impact and the minutes indicate that was certainly true in Jan. On inflation targeting, the Committee discussions seemed to lean against adopting a symmetric inflation range so as to not convey being comfortable with below average inflation. The balance sheet was the other major topic, with repo operations planned through April though gradually reduced through that time.

In other news, trade headlines were a focal point again yesterday with EU trade chief Hogan telling EU lawmakers that work on a revised trade truce will go on for the next few weeks. It’s worth noting that headlines in recent weeks had suggested that talks had centered on a mini deal so a move to a truce is perhaps more realistic. Our economists yesterday made the point that the biggest obstacle appears to be the US demanding that the EU gives way on agriculture. This has been a focus not only for Trump but also Congress. The question then becomes – are there enough low hanging fruit on food/agriculture (previously EU agreed to take more soya and beef imports from US) that can make the US happy to do a mini deal while not crossing the bigger red lines that the EU has on agriculture.

Elsewhere, all the data in the US was by and large better than expected. That was particularly the case for the housing data where January housing starts declined a lot less than expected (-3.6% mom vs. -11.2% expected) while permits surged +9.2% mom (vs. +2.1% expected). That’s a post crisis high for permits now with upward revisions to the prior month also included, however it’s likely that the warm weather has been a big driver. As for PPI, the headline and core ex food and energy readings both rose +0.5% mom, exceeding expectations for +0.1% and +0.2% respectively. Significantly, the health care component which feeds into PCE was strong also, rising +0.4% mom.

In the UK the latest inflation data was slightly higher than expected. The January core reading rose two-tenths to +1.6% yoy while the headline rose to +1.8% yoy (vs. +1.6% expected). Measures of RPI and PPI also rose. While the tick higher for core CPI will have been of some comfort it’s worth noting that the latest print is still a tenth below the BoE’s estimate for January. A reminder that today and tomorrow we get retail sales data and the latest PMIs in the UK, however so far the data has shown signs of improvement since the election. Sterling was weaker yesterday nonetheless, falling -0.60%.

Finally before the day ahead Craig Nicol, Credit Strategist and a member on my team, has just gone live with a podcast called ‘Green Bonds – Increasingly Relevant in the Corporate Bond Market. The podcast is based on a report Craig published earlier this month (link here) exploring the stratospheric growth of the green bond market. Listen on http://www.dbresearch.com/podzept/ or subscribe on iTunes, Apple Podcasts, Spotify.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning data due out in Europe includes March consumer confidence in Germany, January CPI in France and January retail sales in the UK. The February CBI survey for orders and selling prices is also due out in the UK. This afternoon we’ll also get February consumer confidence for the Euro Area while in the US the only data due is the February Philly Fed index, weekly jobless claims and January leading index. Away from the data the Fed’s Barkin and ECB’s Guindos are due to speak while the ECB’s minutes from the last policy meeting are also due. Worth watching also is the EU leaders meeting where the EU budget is due to be negotiated.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 54.75 POINTS OR 1.84%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.65 POINTS OR 0.17%   /The Nikkei closed UP 78.45 POINTS OR 0.34%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0226/Oil UP TO 53.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.34 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0226 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0467 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL PART I COMPLETE//DEALING WITH PART II..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea/ IRAN//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/GLOBE

The curve of cases is on an exponential rise.  The big news:  one death and its first, South Korea.  But more deadly is Iran which reported 2 deaths in the ancient cit of Qom.  Iran has no capability of stopping the spreading of the virus..they have no masks, no drugs.  This will spread to the entire country.

(zerohedge)

Coronavirus Deaths Outside China Surge Overnight As South Korean City Faces “Unprecedented Crisis”

Hours after Japanese press reports claimed that two passengers who contracted COVID-19 aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’ died yesterday – news that was later confirmed by Japanese authorities – South Korea reported its first fatalitywhile one of its major cities asked citizens to stay inside and avoid venturing outdoors, according to the Washington Post.

According to Japanese government officials, both of the virus-related fatalities were Japanese citizens in their 80s who had been moved off the ship more than a week ago for treatment in a Japanese hospital, though the government has so far declined to release names.

The latest reports Thursday morning confirmed another 13 cases aboard the DP(DREAM PRINCESS) bringing the total to 634. The odds that individuals being released from the 2 week quarantine on Thursday and Friday might have contracted the virus, but have yet to show symptoms, remains high. The death in South Korea raised the death toll ex-China to 10.

 

Even as President Xi does everything in his power to present an image of success to the Chinese people – in his speeches, he claims the Chinese government’s strict quarantines have been an unmitigated success – global experts, including the WHO, have warned that the disease will continue to spread globally, and that the end of this crisis is still far from certain.

And as new confirmed cases dropped substantially on Wednesday in Hubei, everywhere else, the rate of new infections is accelerating.

In South Korea, the number of cases soared by almost two-thirds to 104 overnight, further emphasizing our observation that the number of cases ex-China has started to accelerate notably as the curve starts to resemble an exponential progression.

One WHO health expert told a Japanese TV station on Thursday that the virus is “a moving target” making it difficult to collect information and treat people: “Nobody has ever had to deal with this situation before, this is a new virus on a ship with 4,000 people, there are no guidelines for that.” He added that he suspects there was a substantial amount of transmission before it arrived in Yokohama, adding that it was “not possible” to isolate everybody individually.

The WHO senior epidemiologist was responding to claims made by another expert in infectious disease that the Japanese had failed to observer proper quarantine protocols.

Back in Korea, the mayor of Daegu, a city of 2.5 million where 10 South Koreans contracted the disease from a church service, asked residents to stay indoors. Iran also reported two infected that then died.

Experts suspect that one woman in Daegu may have infected at least 40 others by going to her Christian church, according to Yonhap. The alleged ‘superspreader’ is the reason for the huge jump in new cases on Thursday. Experts say the city is now facing an “unprecedented crisis” following the spike in cases.

Cases are also surging in Singapore, where Deutsche Bank confirmed that an employee in its Singapore office had contracted the virus.

Adding to its woes, Iran reported three new cases on Thursday a day after it confirmed two virus-related deaths in the city of Qoms.

Warnings about the virus’s economic blowback are increasing, as Goldman said Thursday that stocks aren’t completely pricing in the risks from the virus.

Meanwhile, Air France-KLM, Qantas, and the global container shipping giant Maersk became the latest companies to warn about the financial impact from the continued spread of the coronavirus.

As President Xi balances the risks to tens of thousands of lives on one hand, and keeping his promise to double the size of China’s economy by 2020 on the other, it seems the leadership in Beijing are beginning to believe their own propaganda. Premier Li Keqiang, Xi’s No. 2 who is in charge of the committee managing the crisis, local governments should seek to increase the rate of resumed production and work, according to China Central Television.

Put another way: Come on in, the water’s fine, and if you get the virus and die, we’ll cremate your body and tell your family you died of “pneumonia”.

The spate of deaths rattled investors overnight, and US equity futures are pointing to a lower open on Thursday, and a rush of risk-off trading in Asia has pushed the BBG dollar index to a 4-month high following the latest piece of evidence that the coronavirus isn’t simply “another flu”.

END

SOUTH KOREA/Daegu City

With news of a super spreader, city streets of Daegu is totally deserted amid surge in Korean COVID 19 cases

(zerohedge)

“It Looks Like A Zombie Apocalypse”: City Streets Deserted Amid Surge In Korean COVID-19 Cases

Seemingly overnight, the public attitude toward the coronavirus outbreak in South Korea has gone from simmering apprehension to full-blown paranoia. And nowhere is that more apparent than in Daegu, the country’s fourth-largest city, with a population of 2.5 million people – roughly one-tenth of the South’s total population.

As the South Korean government debates whether to raise the alert level, the mayor of Daegu has asked all of the city’s residents to avoid venturing outside as the government tracks down, tests and quarantines all the members of a church where an infected woman is believed to have spread the virus to more than 40 people.

As a result, the usually bustling streets of Daegu have suddenly gone quiet: Residents who spoke to Reuters described empty streets in the city center, deserted storefronts and a pervasive “climate of fear”.

On social media, some Koreans are trying to inject a little levity into the conversation. Following a news report where a local described the environment as “a Zombie Apocalypse”, some posted clips from the infamous Korean zombie movie “Train to Busan.”

Atkins@Hey_Atkins

#45 – Train To Busan (2016)

“While a zombie virus breaks out in South Korea, passengers struggle to survive on the train from Seoul to Busan.” pic.twitter.com/gwd7GaIdGN

Overnight, South Korea reported its first virus-linked death, and on Thursday malls, storefronts, bars and restaurants were all empty, along with the streets of Daegu.

The most crowded streets in the city were abandoned.

“It’s like someone dropped a bomb in the middle of the city. It looks like a zombie apocalypse,” Kim Geun-woo, a 28-year-old resident told Reuters by telephone.

“Even Dongseong-ro Street – the most crowded centre of the city – is empty,” he said, adding that he had tried to buy surgical masks but shops were sold out.

The country’s outbreak isn’t isolated to Daegu: Korea’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 53 new cases on Thursday, after reporting 20 new cases a day earlier, bringing the country-wide total to 104. But Daegu and the surrounding area definitely has the largest share of cases. Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that 70 patients are from Daegu or nearby, and the majority have been traced to an infected 61-year-old woman, known in the SK media as “Patient 31”.

Authorities released some new information Thursday about the South Korean patient who succumbed to the virus was reportedly one of 13 infected patients at a hospital near Daegu. Health officials said they were investigating whether there were links between his death and the outbreak at the Church. The hospital where they were staying is being temporarily shuttered and more than 600 staff and patients are being tested for the virus.

In a strange twist, the Guardian reported Thursday that the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, the church at the center of Daegu’s outbreak, is part of a “controversial cult”. The alleged super spread who infected dozens of others at the church first developed a fever on Feb. 10 but reportedly twice refused to be tested for the coronavirus on the grounds that she had not recently travelled abroad. This allowed her to attend at least 4 church services before being isolated, the Guardian reports.

Daegu’s municipal government said there were 1,001 church members in the city, all of whom have been asked to ‘self-quarantine’. 90 of them currently showing symptoms.

Unlike Chinese officials, who have sought to play down the severity of the outbreak at every turn, Korean officials have warned that the situation is “very grave”, and urged the Korean people to take care. Daegu’s mayor has postponed the beginning of South Korea’s spring semester by one week into March, an unprecedented move.

Daegu Mayor Kwon Young-jin told residents to stay indoors as he warned of likely further cases.

“We are in an unprecedented crisis,” he said at a briefing in the city, about 240 km (150 miles) southwest of the capital Seoul.

Kwon cautioned that at least 90 more of the about 1,000 other people who attended services at the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony were also showing symptoms.

“We plan to test all believers of that church and have asked them to stay at home isolated from their families,” Kwon said.

South Korea’s vice health minister Kim Kang-lip said at a separate briefing in the administrative city of Sejong that the situation was “very grave.”

Previously, it seemed like most of the COVID-19 cases diagnosed in South Korea were individuals who had recently traveled to China. Now, thanks to the ‘super spreader’ Patient 31, most of the new cases can be traced to sources within Korea. Keywords include “Daegu lockdown” and “Daegu church” were among the most searched in South Korea.

American troops stationed in Daegu have been ordered not to leave the barracks until the outbreak subsides. The privilege of bringing in guests has been suspended

Research released over the past week has confirmed that COVID-19 is more infectious than SARS and MERS. Now, thanks to China’s failures, Seoul is going to need to develop a plan to stop the outbreak and heal the damage to their already-suffering economy, which has been hurt by rising trade tensions with Japan.

end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/CORONAVIRUS

The Japanese government gets a tongue lashing for their handling of the “Diamond Princess”  cruise liner/coronavirus fiasco

(zerohedge)

“They Completely Dropped The Ball”: Critics Bash Japan’s Government

Japan has become the country that’s perhaps most at risk of a major outbreak of COVID-19.It’s also the country with arguably the most to lose, in terms of its reputation, if it’s forced to call off the Summer Olympics in Tokyo.

As we’ve noted several times over the past few days, from allowing the US to break its quarantine of the ‘Diamond Princess’ to releasing thousands of passengers and crew as new cases are still being identified, Japan’s public health officials seem to have repeatedly dropped the ball in suppressing an outbreak that isn’t very forgiving of mistakes.

In  an uncharacteristically brusque statement, the CDC, which is coordinating the US response to the virus, claimed that Japan had “failed” with the ‘Diamond Princess’ quarantine. And on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that experts around the world feel the same way.

Even though most countries have promised to quarantine passengers and crew from the DP once they return home, Japan is simply letting thousands of potentially infected individuals out into the streets of Tokyo. The UK has advised Britons on board the ship to remain aboard until Friday, when it can organize an evacuation flight.

Given Japan’s elderly population, an outbreak of COVID-19 could be particularly deadly. Researchers have said that patients over the age of 80, and those with co-occurring health issues are at the highest risk of death upon infection.

For what it’s worth, Japan has taken some positive steps, as Japanese companies have ordered thousands to work from home, a policy the government has supported.

But while some events have been cancelled and some companies have told workers not to come into the office, the rush-hour trains in Tokyo are still packed with workers, and there has been little government discussion of a wider lockdown.

A top economist at Nomura, a Japanese bank, said PM Shinzo Abe’s government embarrassed itself by waiting for the WHO to declare a global pandemic before taking the outbreak seriously.

“The Japanese government’s decision to wait for the China-friendly WHO to make its much-delayed declaration of a global health emergency led to the first cases of domestic person-to-person transmission and tarnished the country’s international reputation,” Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, wrote in a report.

Outside of the ‘Diamond Princess’, Japan has only confirmed 74 cases. But Koo suspects it’s already too late for the administration to stave off a severe economic shock.

“The coronavirus will probably cause a substantial amount of economic damage in Japan,” Koo wrote. The Abe administration, he says, “managed to completely drop the ball on this issue.”

And Roo isn’t the only economist who’s worried about Japan: A Bloomberg survey released Wednesday showed that the economists see Japan falling into recession as the coronavirus pummels an economy already reeling from a recent unpopular sales tax hike.

Earlier, we shared a rant from Professor Kentaro Iwata of the Faculty of Infectious Diseases at Kobe University, who claimed that the conditions aboard the ship were “completely chaotic.”

“The cruise ship was completely inadequate in terms of controlling infections,” he said in one of them.

“There was not a single infection control professional on the ship, nor anyone professionally involved in infection prevention. The bureaucrats were in charge of everything.”

“There is no clear distinction between the green (healthy) zones and the red (potentially infected) zones. And the staff is running back and forth,” Iwata reported.

Researchers tracking the virus haven’t been able to ascertain how many of the patients were infected – they seemingly picked up the virus out of thin air. Though one notable exception was a hospital worker who was infected by one of the passengers aboard the ‘Diamond Princess.’

Japan isn’t the only government that was caught flat-footed by the outbreak. In reality, governments across the region failed to predict that it would have such a huge impact.

“This virus spread very, very fast. Not only China, not only Japan, but also many other countries cannot catch up with the speed of this virus,” Hitoshi Oshitani, a professor of virology at Tohoku University, told reporters in Tokyo. Oshitani also sits on the government panel tackling the virus. “Even if they implemented a travel ban to all of China, it was too late.”

Of course, the outbreak would need to get pretty damn bad for Japan and the Olympic Committee to actually cancel or postpone the games. Japan says all passengers and crew from the DP have been tested, and that anybody released will have tested negative and shown no symptoms of infection. Still, there’s a solid chance that many who have only just been infected don’t show symptoms for weeks, despite being contagious. Right now, it seems like Japan is planning to release hundreds of potentially infected people into the streets without a backup plan in case things go awry, or the worst case – that dozens of people contracted the virus in the closing days of the quarantine, and slipped through the inspection – becomes a reality.

END

 

JAPAN/CORONAVIRUS: TWO PASSENGERS DIE OF THE CORONAVIRUS

TWO passengers die of the coronavirus and a new update: 621 passengers have tested positive.  The quarantine was handled very badly and probably contributed to the death of these two passengers.

(zerohedge)

2 ‘Diamond Princess’ Passengers Die Of Coronavirus

As Japanese health officials begin the second day of offloading passengers and crew from the ‘Diamond Princess’ cruise ship that has been under quarantine in Yokohama for the last two weeks, the Japanese press is reporting that two passengers from the ship have died.

The report cites unidentified government officials.

CGTN

@CGTNOfficial

Two passengers from the Japanese cruise ship have died of , NHK reports

View image on Twitter

Even as roughly 600 passengers disembarked on Wednesday, Japanese officials announced 79 more confirmed cases aboard the ship on Wednesday, bringing the total number of infected to 621 – the largest outbreak outside mainland China.

In the US, the CDC has questioned the wisdom of Japanese officials, and accused them of failing to properly quarantine the ship, particularly after 14 passengers found to be carrying the virus were allowed onto a US evacuation flight.

All of the passengers leaving the ship have reportedly been tested for the COVID-19, according to the cruise line. Several hundred other passengers who aren’t taking repatriation flights to their home countries are expected to leave the ship on Thursday, and it’s unclear what will happen to them after that. Most of the passengers will be ferried back to their home countries, where they will face another two weeks of quarantine.

These are the first deaths since Hong Kong reported its second death and Iran reported two virus-related deaths. It brings the death toll ex-China to 9. They marked the second and thirds deaths in Japan, respectively.

Details about the deceased haven’t been released.

end

JAPAN /CORONAVIRUS/YEN

The onset of the coronavirus will hammer Japan and the yen

Another must read…

(Bruce Wilds)

COVID-19 To Hammer Japan And The Yen

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

The coronavirus spreading across Asia and the world is very likely to hammer Japan and the yen. Some people consider the Japanese yen a “safe-haven” currency where they can safely store their wealth in times of financial turmoil. This flies in the face of reason because Japan is destined to eventually face an economic crisis brought on by the growing debt of its government. Central banks have promoted the myth that a major currency cannot fail, however, the rapid demise of either the yen or the euro is all that will be needed to reveal the truth and remind people our system of fiat money is held together only by faith in the system and a prayer.

An accurate timetable for the collapse of the yen is nearly impossible to predict. Several factors play into such a scenario and how fast it might unfold. In recent years as Japan has undertaken a policy to weaken its currency and to strengthen its exports America has remained mute in sympathy for the problems Japan is facing. The reality is that much like the situation that developed in Greece, Japan is facing a wall of debt that it will never be able to repay. The difference is that Japan controls the press that prints its money.

BOJ Leads In This Experiment

Near the end of last year, Daniel Lacalle wrote the failure of Abenomics has been phenomenal. Lacalle points to the balance sheet of Japan’s central bank which has ballooned to more than 100% of the country’s GDP. The central bank now owns almost 70% of the country’s ETFs and is one of the top 10 shareholders in the majority of the largest companies of the Nikkei index. Despite the record-low cost of debt, Japan’s government spends almost 22% of its budget on interest expenses. This has occurred while none of the results that were expected from the massive monetary experiment, inventively called QQE (quantitative and qualitative easing) have materialized.

Abenomics has consistently missed both its inflation and economic growth targets. Japan has been unable to offset the problem of demographics and productivity with higher debt and money printing. Japan has incentivized malinvestment and government spending has resulted in transferring wealth to unproductive sectors which has zombified the economy. The QQE program was based on three “arrows”; monetary policy, government spending, and structural reforms which never happened because protecting the bureaucratic machine of government always takes priority over what is best for the people.

Shifts From Bigger Players Move Yen

In the future, Japan’s debt can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing the yen. This means Japan would be paying off its debt with worthless yen when possible and in many cases defaulting on promises made. Japan’s public debt, which stands at around 250% of its GDP is the highest in the industrialized world (click here to view debt clock). Because of its size, people tend to forget that the island nation of Japan is an economic powerhouse with a GDP that ranks third behind only the United States and China. Japan is an export-driven economy meaning it sucks in raw materials from all over the world, adds value to them, and then spews out finished goods. This leaves the country and its economy dependent on and vulnerable to the countries buying its products. A weak yen makes these goods more competitive on the world market and propels the economy forward.

The yen is part of a somewhat self-defending system of reserve currencies which are considered the most liquid and sound in the global economy. The value between them constantly fluctuates and as one currency falls out of favor investors shift into the other three seeking the least bad choice. As long as savers, investors, and institutions keep their wealth stored within these four currencies and continue the delicate balancing act of avoiding the worse and exiting the most overvalued the system remains relatively stable and will continually readjust partly because it is so self-contained. Each of these currencies has its particular strengths and weaknesses, however, the most vulnerable of the two are probably the Japanese yen and the Euro which is the official currency of the Eurozone, which consists of 19 of the 28 member states of the European Union. A key weakness of the euro is the questionable accountability of its controlling institution.

Weak Growth And Huge Debt

Over recent decades because of its size in the global economy the current Bank of Japan policy has quietly and systematically distorted financial markets across the planet. With super-low interest rates, it has become a key player in the carry trade. In recent years investors and the mega-banks across the world have drastically reduced their Japan Government Bond (JGB) holdings. This has quietly transferred the risk of who gets hurt in the case of a falling yen or a default directly to the Japanese public. As Japan continues down this path it is only a matter of time before the credibility of the BOJ is lost and the yen plunges in value. Many economists have taken a dim view as to the yen’s future, however, when it will succumb to economic reality has been delayed because it is so well insulated and intertwined in world markets.

Demographics paint a bleak picture for Japan which is stuck with an aging and shrinking population that is increasingly expensive for the government to provide for. Adding to its woes the Fukushima nuclear disaster shuttered its nuclear power plants and forced the country to import more expensive energy alternatives. All in all neither monetary nor fiscal policy will adequately solve Japan’s problems. Continuing to run fiscal deficits only means that government debt is pushed onward and upward. Simply put, the fundamentals of Japan are lousy. It should be noted that Japan would be sitting in far worse shape if it were not for the wealth currently shifted from America to the small island nation each year. America spends billions each year defending Japan and puts much of this money directly into the economy. Another way America supports Japan is by purchasing many of the goods the country produces. The massive trade deficit America has with Japan feeds large amounts of money into Japan, without this money the massively indebted nation would be in even more trouble.

For years it has been noted that a key strength that Japan holds is its ability to control its own economic fate and that it cannot be held hostage to foreigners because the people and institutions of Japan hold its debt. In the past, we have seen that outside creditors can wield a great deal of sway over a nation that is deeply in debt. It is not uncommon for creditors to squeeze, threaten, and even blackmail a country that owes them a great deal of money. A country can always drive its currency downward, however, supporting it is much more difficult. To drive a currency lower a country only needs to print and sell their currency using it to buy one or more of the other three reserve currencies. It should be noted that in recent years a great deal of the yen’s resilience may be contributed to the fact Japan has strong economic ties to China. This bolstered the yen during China’s boom years and as growth in China slowed the yen became a conduit to move wealth out of China.

Unlike many other leading economies, Japan has been battling deflation or falling prices for the best part of the past two decades. At some point expect this to change and a new reality to take hold. To support their stock market the BOJ has even gone to buying stock. When investors in Japan’s government bonds begin to believe that Abenomics will be successful in bringing back inflation it would be logical for owners of  JGB’s to move out of low yielding securities and buy foreign bonds or equities. The moment the Japanese stock market fails to rise enough to offset a falling yen and inflation we may see a tsunami of money fleeing Japan. This would constitute the end of the line for those left holding both JGB’s and the yen.

This has been a long time coming and when this finally occurs and Japan crumbles it will be felt across the world.

3 C CHINA

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS

Contrary to what Chinese officials are telling us, the real story is that China’s economy remains completely paralyzed and it looks like when measuring the entire country, demand is down a huge 66%

(zerohedge)

Terrifying Charts Show China’s Economy Remains Completely Paralyzed

In our ongoing attempts to glean some objective insight into what is actually happening “on the ground” in the notoriously opaque China, whose economy has been hammered by the Coronavirus epidemic, last week we showed several “alternative” economic indicators such as real-time measurements of air pollution (a proxy for industrial output), daily coal consumption (a proxy for electricity usage and manufacturing) and traffic congestion levels (a proxy for commerce and mobility), before concluding that China’s economy appears to have ground to a halt. These observations were subsequently reaffirmed when we showed that steel demand, property sales, and passenger traffic had all failed to rebound from the “dead zone” hit during China’s Lunar New Year hibernation.

Meanwhile, as every investor scrambles for clues to find the upward inflection point in China’s economic output which would at least partially validated the unbridled euphoria in the stock – and, ironically, the bond market – we have some unpleasant news: more than one week after our initial report on “alternative” high-frequency (read daily) indicators in China’s economy, any tangible improvement in China’s economy has yet to be observed.

We start with some base commodity market observations courtesy of Goldman Sachs, which when looking at preliminary weekly demand data, finds that:

  • Finished product production -7.4% w/w
  • Mill stocks +18% w/w
  • Trader stocks -19% w/w

According to Goldman’s Adam Gillard, the above implies full country apparent demand is down a massive -66% y/y.

Picking up where Goldman (and we) left off, UBS writes that while there are official announcements for each province or cities to end the extended Chinese New Year (CNY) holidays, “the actual work resumption faces many constraints and is hard to track.” And so, piggybacking on what Capital Economics did previously, UBS constructed a China Daily Activity Tracker to assess real time development, which covers many of the same indicators we have already noted previously including:

  1. daily average transport congestion index for 100 cities,
  2. daily coal consumption of 6 large independent power plants (IPPs);
  3. daily property sales in 30 major cities;
  4. daily passenger volume; and
  5. weekly steel furnace operating rates.

Alas, as we have noted previously and as Goldman shows above, UBS’ indicators show that “China’s activities remain very subdued vs the same time after previous CNYs.”

Here are some of the Swiss bank’s key observations:

Coal consumption and property sales: Daily coal consumption of 6 large IPPs has been only 60% of average level of that in the same period in 2017-2019 (Fig 3). The daily property sales volume of 30 major cities is currently only around 10% of 2017-2019 average, but already up from a week earlier (Fig 4).

Transport congestion index: The index is measured as actual transport time relative to the theoretical time at free-flow speeds. 100-city average transport congestion index is below 1.2 of late, much lower than around 1.6 for the same period of 2017-2019.

UBS also constructs a Heat Map by province in Fig 5 to show each province’s index change compared with their previous low on Jan 25-26 (CNY day). As one would expect, there has been virtually no rebound for the vast majority of cities.

Passenger volume: Latest daily passenger volume is only 19% of that in the same period during CNY travel season in 2019 (Fig 12). Overall, total numbers of passengers carried has been around 18%, or 82% below, the 2019 level!

Accumulated passenger volume since the CNY day is 308mn person*time, 18% of 1.7bn person*time one year ago. While the drop is partly due to cancelled trips, a big part is likely due to delayed returns of workers, who will eventually come back over the coming weeks, assuming of course China manages to contain the coronavirus and the population believes the communist government.

We then move to a similar daily-activity tracker, this time from Goldman which confirmed the terrifying paralysis China’s economy finds itself in:

Daily coal consumption of major electricity producers was still 33% weaker in the first 18 days of February this year than normal seasonality would suggest. Needless to say, one can’t claim there is even a remote possibility of a return to normal if electricity output (and demand) is running almost half compared to where it was this time last year.

The real estate market remains frozen. As Goldman notes, daily property sales volume in 30 major cities over the past week has climbed up to 13% of the average level in the previous 5 years. It was better than the 0% it was for much of the previous week.

Last but not least, while hardly coming as a surprise, movie box office revenues have been unchanged for the past three weeks, and remain frozen… at zero!

And, as we noted previously, one can argue that the most ominous chart is not what is frozen in China right now – which is almost everything – but what is soaring. Thanks to Capital Economics we know what that is: food prices.

As we warned previously, a paralyzed economy, with 750 million people in some form of lock down, where the people are becoming increasingly angry at Beijing’s now openly over propaganda, where countless workers will soon be fired as companies run out of funds, and even more companies will soon be bankrupt due to lack of ongoing operations, and where the price of food is surging makes for the most volatile combination possible, one which if not arrested soon could lead to a very violent climax.

* * *

Putting it all together, one may ask why are global stocks not only not falling but are in fact soaring to record highs? The answer, as Goldman accurately puts it, is that “rightly or wrong, it just doesn’t matter because investors continue to price policy support.

Market sentiment is still on. Most clients have priced in that more loosening in liquidity and property will come. Tomorrow the Feb LPR data will be out and consensus is 10bps cut as MLF rate cut. Treasury futures may see some correction unless the rate cuts is greater in magnitude. But my survey shows that the short term sentiment will not be hurt. From retail wise, we have seen craze from retail subscription of mutual funds recently and Foresight, an all-star PFM, has raised Rmb12bn within 8hours which made the new record high in history.

In short, don’t worry about a thing, the Fed’s got this.

Once upon a time we used to joke that if the world is facing an apocalyptic situation, stocks may hit “limit up” because all traders would ask is when the Fed will start buying stocks, as Janet Yellen said last week the central bank will probably do in the next crisis. Unfortunately, it is no longer a joke.

end

China/Locusts

 

India and Africa have been plagued with billions of locusts pillaging their agriculture.  The army of locust is now heading to China and this is how China will defend its country against this invading enemy

 

(courtesy Strange Sounds.org)

and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us.

While Billions of Locusts Are Approaching, China Sends 100,000 Ducks to Devour the Insects (Video)

As 400 billion locusts approach China from the India-Pakistan border…

100,000 “duck troops” are gathering to prepare for the potential emergency and devour the insect plague.

As 400 billion locusts approach China from the India-Pakistan border, 100,000 "duck troops" are gathering to prepare for the potential emergency.
As 400 billion locusts approach China from the India-Pakistan border, 100,000 “duck troops” are gathering to prepare for the potential emergency. Picture via Twitter video

China is massively hit by the coronavirus. But another plague is about to hit the Middle Kingdom: Locusts, billions of locusts, currently wreaking havoc in East Africa, Pakistan and India.

 

While they are killing almost all of their chickens, China has deployed 100,000 ducks to its borders with Pakistan and India in Xinjiang, the far west part of the country. So why not use chickens also?

CGTN

@CGTNOfficial

“Duck troops” gather at the border to face locust swarms

Embedded video

These brown ducks, “duck troops” for Chinese media, are fond of insects and have been already used in prior locust invasions.

Some farmers even say they are more effective than pesticides as a juvenile duck can swallow locusts on more than 4m² of land per day.

Well I am sure there will be a lot more duck foie gras next Christmas. 😉 More biblical news on Strange Sounds and Steve Quayle. [Twitter

end

Robert email to me:

“Between January 20 and February 13, three aviation enterprises canceled 78,000 flights and refunded 13 million passengers, Ren Hongbin, deputy director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council, said in a Beijing press conference on Tuesday.

Occupancy and daily aircraft utilization rates were nearly halved during the period, Ren said, adding that the Spring Festival used to be the peak season for the aviation industry.

Tourism enterprises shut down tourism sites, hotels and retail stores, with their businesses being seriously affected, Ren said. For example, the China National Travel Service Group Corporation closed 30 tourism sites, 19 hotels and 113 retail shops and suspended all cruises.”

Since this is only China, one can quickly see that the fallout in the airline business to all airlines outside of China must be huge, which will be reported in their 2nd quarter results. Perhaps, the crews do not get paid but the cost of unused aircraft and fixed costs roll on. Add to that the Boeing 737max fiasco and this business category is hurting.
Cheers
Robert
Then this:
Many thousands crossing the Vietnam border fleeing the crack down in China. One can believe there are infected people who will spread the virus quickly throughout south east Asia.
A time to quarantine all Chinese from boarding aircraft from there.
And understand now the capital is being locked down shortly.
It is far from over and we are naive not to take hard precautions.Cheers
Robert
Then this:

Tourism declines along with industrial and natural resource to China for Russia

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/IRAN/SYRIA

Israel warns Syria to force them to remove the Iranians from their soil.  If not Israel will begin a huge offensive action to which Bennett describes how Syria will turn into an Iranian Vietnam

(zerohedge)

Israel To Step Up “Offensive Action” – Will Turn Syria Into “Iranian Vietnam”: Israeli Defense Chief

After over two years of sporadic Israeli air and missile attacks inside Syria, which Syria’s military has been more aggressive in responding to of late, Israel has issued a rare statement revealing its medium to long-term strategy, saying it will soon step up “offensive action” in the country to ensure Iranian fighters depart

Speaking to Ynet News on Wednesday the new Israeli Defense Minister, Naftali Bennett said, “We will go from preventive action to offensive action — the only measure that guarantees us the expulsion of Iran out of Syria.”

“We are warning them (the Iranians), we will turn Syria into an Iranian Vietnam, and you will continue to bleed until the last Iranian soldier leaves Syrian territory,” the nation’s defense chief threatened.

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Naftali Bennett visit Golan Heights base overlooking Syria last year. Image source: GPO/Haaretz

Israel’s latest attack on Damascus occurred last Thursday, which resulted in heavy damage at the Syrian capital’s international airport, which media reports claim was used for Iranian weapons storage. Satellite imagery analysis source ImageSat said one of the more severely damaged buildings was “probably used for storing ammunition or [surface-to-air missiles].”

Syrian opposition media claimed that four members of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and three Syrian soldiers were killed in the airstrikes. Israel has throughout the war often conducted attacks from over Lebanese airspace, targeting what it claims are Iranian assets inside Syria. Israel almost never provides confirmation it was behind these attacks, with Netanyahu quipping to reporters when asked about it“I don’t know what happened at night. Maybe it was the Belgian air force.”

With the final battle for Idlib province now underway in the northwest, Assad has clearly emerged victorious in the war, making Tel Aviv increasingly anxious about Iran’s continued entrenched presence in support of its ally.

In separate prior comments delivered on Tuesday, Defense Minister Bennett said Iran is changing its thinking inside Syria. “I can tell you that we are seeing the initial indications of Iran weakening and considering a new tack in Syria,” he told a military technology conference in Tel Aviv.

“[The Iranians] are sending forces in order to establish a presence there to exhaust us, but we are turning this disadvantage into an advantage. We have intelligence and operational superiority, and we are telling the Iranians clearly: Get out of Syria. There’s nothing for you here.”

ImageSat Intl.@ImageSatIntl

report confirms: International Airport – Headquarters and warehouses destroyed by airstrike (17/2/2020).

View image on Twitter

“We are moving from a defensive position to an offensive position — to weaken, to exhaust, to tire and wear out the head of the octopus in order to weaken its arms,” Bennett said, using an analogy he employs frequently.

He also said recent anti-government demonstrations in Iran were a sign that the Iranian people were growing tired of the Ayatollah’s “foreign adventurism” in places like Syria, and that they are telling their leaders “Stop wasting money and our blood on adventures”.

END
TURKEY/SYRIA/RUSSIA
Is Turkey that brain dead?  They are threatening to confront Russia with a large scale invasion of Idlib!!  For what reason? to annihilate the Syrian Kurds.  Erdogan has totally lost his marbles
(zerohedge)

Turkey Threatens “Imminent” Large Scale Invasion Of Idlib To Halt Syrian-Russian Advance

New threats related to Idlib this week could see the Russian and Turkish armies on a direct collision course.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday threatened a full-scale military invasion of the war torn province after the Syrian Army and its Russian ally refused to halt their ongoing offensive. 

“An operation in Idlib is imminent,” Erdogan told Turkish parliament of preparations for NATO’s second largest army. “We are counting down, we are making our final warnings”.

 

Turkish tank in the town of Binnish in Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib, via AFP.

“Turkey has completed preparations for the implementation of its plan on Idlib, just like we did with previous operations. Frankly speaking, an operation in Idlib is only a matter of time,” Erdogan said.

He further emphasized that Turkey “is determined to pay any price to ensure security in both Idlib and Turkey.” The Syrian and Turkish armies have been engaged in sporadic fierce clashes for the past two weeks in Idlib, resulting in scores dead and wounded on each side, though specific numbers are disputed. Turkey has acknowledged at least 13 of its national troops killed.

“We will not leave Idlib to the [Syrian] regime, which does not understand our country’s determination, and to those encouraging it,” said Erdogan. Turkey has thus far sent limited deployments of troops and armored convoys into the northwest Syrian province to support and defend a dozen observation posts.

The Kremlin was quick to respond to such a threat of major escalation, pointing out that any Turkish offensive against Syrian forces in Idlib would be the “worst case scenario”.

“If it will be an operation against terrorist forces in Idlib, that would certainly be within the spirit” of Russia’s agreements with Turkey, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said before adding: “But if it is about an operation against legitimate Syrian armed forces, that would certainly be the worst case scenario.”

Hadi Albahra

@hadialbahra

The IDPs break into one of the humanitarian supplies warehouses as they are fed up waiting for 6 hours in-line with so little being distributed.

Embedded video

Talks between Turkish and Russian officials earlier this week related to Idlib failed to reach any agreement. This after Erdogan and Trump held a phone call wherein both leaders agreed the Syrian-Russian offensive must be halted “immediately”.

Mainstream media has also begun to again put Idlib coverage front and center as hundreds of thousands of civilians are said to be fleeing. Erdogan has long expressed fears that a million or more refugees could flood across the Turkish border, adding to the already some three million Turkey says it’s hosting.

UN figures state that at least 700,000 people have been displaced in Idlib since fighting was renewed in early December.

END
TURKEY/USA/RUSSIA
Brain dead Erdogan is in deep trouble..he now needs the USA patriot missiles to deter the Russians in Idlib. What happened to the purchases of Russian SAM 400’s
(zerohedge)

In Surprise Flip, Turkey Asks US For Patriot Missiles “To Deter” Russia In Idlib

In a breaking major development in the battle for Idlib, Turkey has reportedly asked the United States for its Patriot missile defense system “to deter” the Russian and Syrian Army offensive in Idlibreports Bloomberg citing an official in Ankara.

This would constitute a significant flip-flop and irony, and could prove deeply embarrassing for Erdogan, given it was long the firm stance of Washington that it would not provide Patriots if Turkey went forward with procuring Russia’s S-400s, which began transfer to Turkey last year.

 

Patriot Missile Battery file image, via Hurriyet Daily News

A senior Turkish official in Ankara was reported as saying Turkey asked the US. to deploy two Patriot missile-defense batteries on its southern border to defend against Russian air power.

Reports Bloomberg:

Turkey is yet to receive a U.S. response to the request, which was relayed last week to James Jeffrey, the U.S. envoy for Syria engagement, the official said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive information. The U.S. Embassy in Turkey declined to comment.

This means Erdogan may have flipped on Putin as well — certainly such a request could mark a major turn back to the US, Turkey’s powerful NATO ally.

Boris Zilberman

@rolltidebmz

Turkey is supposedly asking the US for Patriot missiles to deter the Russians. No one could have ever seen this coming.

Send the S-400s back to Russia. https://twitter.com/KFM936/status/1230501749678624774 

Коммерсантъ FM 93,6

@KFM936

Турция попросила у США ЗРК Patriot “для сдерживания” России в Идлибе // Bloomberg со ссылкой на источник в Анкаре

It must be remembered that early last year things came to a head between Ankara and Washington to the point that the Trump administration issued an ultimatum that Turkey must ultimately “choose between remaining in NATO or buying the Russian S-400”.

Turkey of course chose the latter, but events over Idlib could be the great undoing of Erdogan’s previous pivot to Moscow.

end

IRAN/CORONAVIRUS/DEATH OF 2 IRANIANS IN QOM

Ladies and Gentlemen:

this is very scary!! Iran has closed borders, Two Iranians have died in Qom, from the coronavirus,  The patient was in great health and was 60 years old.  He was a teacher.  His brother, is very angry at the government for not letting anybody know that the virus had penetrated Iran.  The brother states that they have never left Iran and were not in contact with any Chinese people.

wow!

(zerohedge)

NYT Reporter Accuses Iran Of ‘Covering Up’ Coronavirus Outbreak

Tehran surprised international health authorities yesterday when the Associated Press reported that two Iranians had died in the Iranian city of Qoms after succumbing to COVID-19. Early speculation that the cases might be foreigners, perhaps Chinese nationals, was quickly dispelled: Two Iranians with no recent history of traveling abroad had somehow contracted the virus.

And so far, the Iranian government hasn’t offered any kind of explanation as to how this might have happened. China is a major trading partner for Iran, but it’s chief interest is oil. To oversee the Islamic Republic’s response to the virus, Rouhani has formed a committee that will include Iran’s ministers of health and roads, in addition to “representation” from the military and IRGC. The government is also imposing ’emergency measures,’ though it wasn’t immediately clear what these would include.

In Qoms, which is the capital of a broader province with the same name, Iranian officials closed schools and imposed emergency measures across the north-central province, WSJ reports.

By the time Tehran confirmed a fifth case on Thursday, observers were warning that a severe outbreak could easily overwhelm Iran’s health care system, strained as it is by the sanctions-induced economic crisis that has hamstrung the country’s economy.

Specifically, a government spokesman confirmed that the three surviving patients are in Qoms and Arak, another province not too far from Qoms. Two of the patients are in Qoms, one is in Arak.

Kianush Jahanpur@drjahanpur

ابتلای دو نفر در و یکنفر در اراک به تایید شد. تاکنون تعداد موارد قطعی ابتلا به در ایران به پنج نفر رسیده است.

مورد مبتلا به در شهر اراک از همکاران عزیز جامعه پزشکی است.

Rumors also claimed that a recent metro station closing in Tehran was related to the top-secret transport of a patient suspected of infection.

Iran True@iran_true

Shoosh Metro station in Tehran, , was closed for hours due to transferring a suspected case of to the hospital.

Embedded video

Other countries in the region have reported cases of the virus, including the UAE and Egypt. But how it made it this far is unclear.

One New York Times reporter reported that the brother of one of the deceased patients in Qoms disputed the government’s claim that the two Iranians who died were both elderly in poor health. According to this reporter’s source, one of the victims was 60 and relatively healthy. The man repeats those claims in the video below.

Max Howroute▫️@howroute

Qom, Iran – a patient is in the intensive care at the local hospital. The video was recorded by the brother of a patient, Dr. Mohammad Molaei. The 60-year-old patient, a retired teacher has died. No history of traveling abroad or any contact with any Chinese person.

Embedded video

She also reported that Iranians are furious at their government for initially withholding information about the outbreak, and many feel that public health officials aren’t doing enough to stop the spread. For example, a domestic airline is still running flights to China.

Farnaz Fassihi

@farnazfassihi

Coronavirus cases increase in . 3 in Qom, 1 in Arak, 5 suspected transferred to Tehran. Lack of transparency about how & when virus entered & spreading & why public wasn’t informed earlier is infuriating Iranians afresh.

Farnaz Fassihi

@farnazfassihi

2/ Iranians saying they don’t trust public health officials statements about coronavirus outbreak.
Because? The regime lied & covered up shooting down passenger airplane for 3 days.

Farnaz Fassihi

@farnazfassihi

3/ Compounding the anger is Iranian carrier Mahan Airlines still operating flights to & from China with little oversight from public health officials. Long after most countries have suspended flights from China.

Farnaz Fassihi

@farnazfassihi

4/ Tomorrow is elections. In Qom health officials have warned people to stay away from public spaces.
What precautions are officials taking to not spread coronavirus in long lines & finger stamps?

Conveniently for the government, the outbreak has preceded Iran’s legislative elections, set for tomorrow.

Hector Torres@hectorology

A day before the biggest election in the history of Iran the streets in Qom are looking empty. What will this mean for the voting turnout tomorrow?? Do not let fear make your decision.

View image on Twitter

In a hilarious example of Iranian style “democracy”, the government has refused to reschedule tomorrow’s election and is instead advising citizens to stay home and avoid voting.

Farnaz Fassihi

@farnazfassihi

5/ Many Iranians were already planning to sit out the elections. Hopelessness for change & anger over disqualification of reformist candidates, lying about airplane shooting & Nov. killing of hundreds of protestors. Fear from coronavirus could be another excuse to boycott vote.

Farnaz Fassihi

@farnazfassihi

6/ Brother of dead coronavirus patient in Qom is a member of Iran’s central medical committee. He disputes government account, says his brother was 60, not elderly & had no existing health issues, caught the virus in the streets of Qom. He accuses officials of “cover up.”

Given that this reporter is writing for a western media organization like the NYT, how do we know her report isn’t colored by an anti-Iranian bias? Well, as one twitter user pointed out in replies to a tweet by Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding

Andrew Stanton@andyjstanton

I wouldn’t say she’s reputable as she reports with a pro-Iran tone a lot. But the fact this negative Iran news is coming from her makes it probably true

…that Farnaz Fassihi often reports with a strongly pro-regime tone (as most of the liberal media in the US do these days).

Meanwhile, next door in Iraq, officials have banned Iranian citizens from traveling through Iraq’s border crossings and airports in an attempt to try and stop the virus from spreading. Kuwait airways has also cancelled flights to Iran.

While the extent of the outbreak isn’t yet known, one twitter user who has been closely following the outbreak around the world said he estimates that there are already 2,000 cases of the virus in Iran, but it isn’t clear what he’s basing that on.

All we know is we expect Tehran to face more pressure – both internal and external – in the coming days.

end

Robert to me:
Syria and Turkey
Rumors floating that Turkey has shelled The Latakia air base and killed several senior Russian officers.
If this is true, Russia will respond as they have now twice warned Erdogan to conform to his signed deal on Syria and warned him that they will come to Syria’s aid. There is a reason the 2 Russian bombers were within easy strike distance of Turkey the other day carrying hypersonic nukes in international air space over the Black Sea.
If Turkey is not careful Russia will unleash a storm like no other on his head. Turkey is not without internal problems and love for Erdogan is fading, so regime changes can happen very quickly. And his troops and equipment in Syria will be most expendable.
He also forgets that the partial S400 system’s in place can be used as first strike weapons and he is not in control of them. This is why he suddenly wants Patriot missiles. Perhaps the Russians will take out the partial systems. After all he has paid.
We live in crazy times.Cheers
Robert

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS/DIAMOND PRINCESS FIASCO

Luther explains how the poorly the quarantined ship was running as it infected more people because there were no professionals on board.

(Luther/Organic Prepper blog)

Did The Diamond Princess “Quarantine” Just Infect More People With Covid-19 And Spread It Further?

Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

The “quarantine” of passengers on the cruise ship, Diamond Princess, drew toward an end yesterday when several hundred people were allowed to disembark.

Those who were released tested negative for Covid-19. They’ll be issued a certificate by Japanese health authorities stating that they were not infected at the time they left the ship. When the passengers left, they were, according to Japan’s health minister Katsunobu Kato, going to “have to find their own way home to from the port” which most likely means public transport for many of the passengers.

Is it possible that all the Diamond Princess quarantine did was infect more people with Covid-19 and that the aftermath of the poorly-executed quarantine will spread the virus across the globe?

Was this quarantine done correctly?

The entire quarantine of this ship seems to have run contrary to my understanding of what “quarantine” actually means.

First of all, being on that ship cooped up in tiny quarters with all of the sick people in rooms next door had to be nightmarish to people who only wanted to go on a nice vacation. The entire time, I wondered why a more suitable facility was not made available for quarantining passengers who were at risk.

There on the ship, people were constantly exposed, even though they had to stay in their rooms. The food had to be prepared by somebody and delivered by somebody. Fresh towels? Somebody laundered and delivered those too. Drinking water? Also delivered. From staff onboard a ship where literally 4-5 people per hour were confirmed to be infected.

With a rate of infection like that, the likelihood of contracting the virus was extremely high. I can’t imagine that keeping 3700 people on board a floating death trap was the best way to contain the outbreak. That ship was the site of the largest cluster of infections outside of China.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, told USA Today bluntly that the quarantine effort had been a failure.

…the original idea to keep people safely quarantined on the ship wasn’t unreasonable. But even with the quarantine process on the ship, virus transmission still occurred…

…”The quarantine process failed,” Fauci said. “I’d like to sugarcoat it and try to be diplomatic about it, but it failed. People were getting infected on that ship. Something went awry in the process of the quarantining on that ship. I don’t know what it was, but a lot of people got infected on that ship.” (source)

And Dr. Fauci is not the only public health expert who felt the quarantine was not carried out correctly.

Kentaro Iwata, professor at the infectious diseases division of Japan’s Kobe University, described the situation on board as “completely inadequate in terms of infection control”.

After visiting the ship, Prof Iwata posted a video to YouTube stating that the quarantine measures he witnessed failed to separate the infected from the healthy.

The expert said he was more afraid of catching the virus on board than he had been working in the field in Africa during the Ebola epidemic and in China during the Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak. (source)

We have to remember, this quarantine was carried out by folks who work on a cruise ship, not by infectious disease specialists. While I’m sure they did the best they could given the circumstances, the quarantine seems to have been poorly conceived.

The continued spread throughout the quarantined passengers and crew led the United States to evacuate American citizens from the ship and fly them back to the US. About 300 passengers are being further quarantined in Omaha, Nebraska. Fourteen Americans who were infected on the ship are hospitalized. According to Dr. Fauci, health officials expect to see more cases among the quarantined evacuees.

I think that the US had the right idea. Leaving people on that floating death trap for a longer period of time just puts them at higher risk of contracting the virus.

While the quarantine was poorly executed, the end of the quarantine is even worse.

I don’t think just letting people disembark and hop into the nearest taxi is the best way to “end the quarantine.” Granted I’m certainly no public health expert, but the biggest question I have is this:

If people aboard that ship are being infected at the rate of 4-5 per hour, shouldn’t the clock restart on the quarantine after the most recent infection?  Shouldn’t it be fourteen days after the most recent confirmation?

I guess they don’t think so in Japan. Because they’re releasing several hundred people per day based on a negative test (a test that may not be reliable – keep reading) after those people have been in a veritable petri dish of novel coronavirus.

The released passengers made their way onto waiting coaches or into taxis, reports the BBC’s Laura Bicker, who is at the port in Yokohama.

They will be allowed to return to life as normal, but will be contacted over a period of several days to check on their health, Japan’s health ministry said. (source)

The only folks who are remaining in quarantine are those who were sharing a cabin with infected people and each day a few hundred more people will be released willy-nilly into Japan’s public transportation system to make their way back to 50 different countries– most likely on public transportation.

In her best-selling book, The Wuhan Coronavirus Survival Manual, Cat Ellis wrote about ending quarantines:

A person is quarantined for the entire duration of the illness’ incubation (latency) period. For Wuhan coronavirus, the current guidance for a quarantine for a person for 14 days.

However, there was one study suggesting the incubation period is actually 24 days. If this is the real incubation period, then our current measures for quarantine are insufficient, and may be allowing the virus to spread. This is not the only explanation. It could also mean that the initial exposure opportunity did not result in an infection, and then there was a subsequent exposure opportunity when infection did happen. If this is the case, the 14-day period is probably the correct one.

As always, err on the side of caution. I would quarantine for 24 days until this is proven incorrect. (source)

So if one were to follow this advice, the people disembarking from the Diamond Princess should really be isolated at the very least, not hopping on a plane.

How sure are we that the folks disembarking are truly not infected?

We don’t know a lot about this illness yet – it’s brand new. But one thing we do know is that the Covid-19 nucleic acid test is not extremely reliable.  According to Medicinenet:

Reports suggest some people test negative up to six times even though they are infected with the virus, according to the BBC and Chinese media. Such was the case with Dr. Li Wenliang, the ophthalmologist who first identified the outbreak and was reprimanded by Chinese authorities when he tried to warn others…

…False-negative test results, where patients are told they do not have a condition when they actually do, cause several problems. Patients may be turned away from hospitals and medical facilities when they require care. They may infect others at home, work, school, or in the community. Patients’ conditions may also worsen without treatment.

When faced with a highly infectious, potentially deadly pathogen, even a small number of false negatives can have a potentially serious and widespread impact on the larger population. (source)

This, of course, is the reason that the people repatriated to the United States are being put into further quarantine.

Although the folks who were released all tested negative and are not showing symptoms, it seems extremely likely we will see more cases sprouting up all over the world from former passengers of the Diamond Princess.

The CDC agrees and is not allowing any of the disembarking passengers to return to the US without restrictions.

CDC believes the rate of new infections on board, especially among those without symptoms, represents an ongoing risk. Therefore, to protect the health of the American public, all passengers and crew of the ship have been placed under travel restrictions, preventing them from returning to the United States for at least 14 days after they had left the Diamond Princess.

Currently, there are more than 100 U.S. citizens still onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship or in hospitals in Japan. These citizens have been placed under the restrictions, as have the ship’s other passengers and crew.

After disembarkation from the Diamond Princess, these passengers and crew will be required to wait 14 days without having symptoms or a positive coronavirus test result before they are permitted to board flights to the United States.

If an individual from this cruise arrives in the United States before the 14-day period ends, they will still be subject to a mandatory quarantine until they have completed the 14-day period with no symptoms or positive coronavirus test results.

Because of their high-risk exposure, there may be additional confirmed cases of COVID-19 among the remaining passengers on board the Diamond Princess. (source)

South Korea has also said they’re blocking entry to Diamond Princess passengers.

The BBC reports that “Japanese officials have defended their approach, saying that the majority of infections likely occurred before the quarantine period.”

Will this lead to new clusters of Covid-19 outside of China?

This morning, the day after the quarantine officially ended, 79 more people who are still on the Diamond Princess tested positive for the novel coronavirus, bringing the total of infected people to 621. Meanwhile, those leaving the quarantine are “finding their own way home.”  Zero Hedge sums it up:

As we’ve noted several times, the notion that thousands of people are about to be released while hundreds of cases of the virus are still being confirmed seems like insanity. While most of the patients will face two more weeks of quarantine when they return home, how are they planning on getting there? There’s been no word of an official government transport. (source)

I think it’s a pretty safe bet to believe that out of several thousand exposed people heading to 50 different countries, at least a few of them are going to be bringing a little something with them.

It’s difficult to imagine this won’t make its way to the United States and elsewhere. I suggest you pick up this book and get prepared for the possibility of real quarantines before the word becomes official.

If we’ve learned anything throughout this debacle, it’s that governments will try to cover their rears and “not cause a panic.” Unfortunately, this means that we don’t get crucial information until it’s too late to act on it. There are already shortages in the United States of things like gloves and masks – they’re practically nowhere to be found.  Look for bleach, antibacterial product, and hand sanitizer shortages next.

This whole thing could end up being like the Ebola scare of 2014, something legitimately unnerving, but ultimately not widespread outside of the hot zone. We may get lucky and Covid-19 may by some miracle be contained.

But I wouldn’t bet my family’s lives on it.

END

A must read.. Brandon Smith on global centralization;  the cause of the crisis not the cure

(Brandon Smith

 

Global Centralization Is The Cause Of Crisis – Not The Cure

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Once you understand the globalist mindset, almost everything they do becomes rather robotic and predictable.  It should not be surprising that the World Health Organization (WHO), a branch of the United Nations, has been so aggressive in cheerleading for the Chinese government and its response to the coronavirus outbreak. After all, China’s communist surveillance state model is a beta test for the type of centralization that the UN wants for the entire planet. They certainly aren’t going to point out that it was China’s totalitarian system that allowed the outbreak to spread from the very beginning.

Even now Xi Jinping is trying to rewrite history, claiming that he had been swift in responding to the crisis more than a month before he actually did.  The lie that the coronavirus mutated naturally in a food and animal market in Wuhan continues to be peddled by the mainstream media even though no evidence supporting this claim exists.  And China is still releasing rigged death and infection numbers while they have over 600 million people under martial law lockdown and their crematoriums continue pumping out the fumes of the dead 24 hours a day 7 days a week.

 

Brave health workers like Li Wenliang, who was punished by the government for warning about the virus in December, have died in the process of trying to fight against the centralized behemoth just to get vital information to the world, but that never happened, right? It was actually president Xi and the CPC that saved the day. The WHO and the CPC say so. You’ll never hear the UN praise the efforts of Li Wenliang; they want his name to disappear down the memory hole as much as the Chinese government does.

The developing narrative is a familiar one – Local officials “stifled” the response to the outbreak while the centralized national leadership put things back on track with extreme control measures that have turned the Hubei province into a veritable internment camp. Whatever you do, don’t point out that it was the national government’s habit of imprisoning health officials that release “false information” that led to the delayed reaction on the coronavirus. Also, don’t point out that ground zero for the outbreak is just down the road from the largest Level 4 Biohazard Lab in Asia, because that would make you a “conspiracy theorist”.

The message being pounded into the public consciousness is clear: “Shut up and accept that Centralization works”. Even when it fails miserably, it is still the answer to all our problems. All we have to do is “adjust” the historical record a little bit every time the system breaks and then institute even MORE centralization in response.

In other words, if the interdependent and draconian top-down structure of the globalist state leads to crisis, then it is because it was not centralized ENOUGH. Centralization always begets more centralization.

The financial fascist system of central banking and corporate oligarchy leads to the socialist welfare state, and the socialist welfare state leads to the surveillance state, the surveillance state leads to the martial law state, and the martial law state leads to full-on global governance; an endless elitist empire.

The failings of centralization have caused numerous problems long before it led to a potential pandemic. The pandemic simply clarifies the issue. For example, the breakdown in the global supply chain is becoming a bigger threat by the day.  The Baltic Dry Index a measure of shipping rates as well as global demand for goods, has essentially collapsed.  This should have been the first warning sign that the supply chain was in trouble, but the mainstream doesn’t pay attention to the fundamentals, only stock markets.  Enter Apple, one of the largest companies in the world, which has now abandoned its projections for 2020 and finally admitted that the shutdown of Chinese factories may just be a problem.

Some mentally challenged people out there are scoffing sarcastically at this issue, saying “Oh no, whatever will we do without i-Phones…?”.  They don’t grasp the wider implications.  If Apple’s production is going down because of the supply chain disruption then this is a signal that multiple companies and most of the economy are also going down because of supply chain disruptions. It’s not about i-Phones, it’s about the bigger picture.

Globalism has led to interdependent economies and nation states that no longer have redundancies in production. We have been forced to rely on production centers on the other side of the world for a vast majority of our goods.

When China shuts down, the US economy loses almost 20% of its supply chain. When Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Vietnam shut down from the virus, you can add another 10% to 15% on top of that. Retailers in the US represent around 70% of GDP. Cut off the supply chain in Asia and retailers lose a vast array of goods to sell. The US economy eventually shuts down also, even if the virus never spreads here.

Some people will argue that we don’t need all the “cheap plastic crap” from Asia anyway, and this situation is a “good thing”. Sorry to break it to you, but America’s economy is built on the selling of cheap plastic crap (along with the selling of the fiat dollar as the world reserve currency). Walmart (Chinamart if you discount agricultural products) is the largest employer in the US and the world, after all. Right or wrong, our economic system is so globalized that the fall of the Chinese dominoes will eventually knock down our own dominoes.

But when this disaster occurs and numerous national economies suffer from enforced globalist integration, guess what will happen next? The globalists will ride to our “rescue” with even greater centralization. This was their agenda all along.

Many people in the liberty movement are now aware of the Event 201 simulation, a war game run by globalists in the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Economic Forum on a “theoretical” coronavirus pandemic that kills 65 million people. This simulation took place only a couple of months before the real thing exploded in China in December. But hey, maybe that’s all just amazing coincidence. What concerns me even more is the solution that was presented at the end of Event 201 – the creation of a centralized global financial body that would manage the international response to the outbreak.

Isn’t it amazing how every major catastrophe caused by globalism seems to lead to more globalism? One might start to wonder if some of these events were triggered by incompetence, or if they were deliberately engineered. At the very least, crisis events have been allowed to fester unchecked by organizations like the WHO as they continue to write off the coronavirus as a non-issue that is “well under control” by a Chinese government that caused it to spread in the first place.

So here is what is going to happen next:

Best case scenario is that the Western world is mostly unscathed by the virus itself but the economic supply chain suffers major setbacks. The global economy, which was already crashing over the past year due to historic levels of corporate and consumer debt, not to mention faltering exports and freight, is finally tipped over the edge. The massive Everything Bubble, fueled by a decade of inflationary central bank stimulus, implodes. Governments respond with totalitarian measures in the name of “protecting the public”.

Globalist institutions like the IMF step in and suggest that frail national monetary systems come under the management of their Special Drawing Rights basket in order to mitigate the debt crisis. Essentially, this is the first step to global governance.

Worst case scenario, the virus spreads throughout the US and Europe and governments respond the same way China’s government has; martial law and full blown concentration camp culture. This would lead to civil war in the US because we are armed and many people will shoot anyone trying to put us into quarantine camps. Europe is mostly screwed.

The establishment then suggests that paper money be removed from the system because it is a viral spreader. China is already pushing this solution now. Magically, we find ourselves in a cashless society in a matter of a year or two; which is what the globalists have been demanding for years. Everything goes digital, and thus even local economies become completely centralized as private trade dies.

Again, this might be an engineered event, or it might simply be that the globalists are exploiting a natural outbreak. Either way, they are not going to let a good crisis go to waste. Whether or not they succeed is dependent on several factors, but mostly, its dependent on us. How many people will buy into the notion that centralization is the answer to out problems? How many people will realize that centralization is the CAUSE of all our problems? And how many people will fight to prevent ultimate centralization under a psychopathic globalist cult?

viral outbreak is a significant danger to us all, but an even greater threat is the supposed cure. Trading our economic and social freedom in the name of stopping the coronavirus?  No matter how deadly the bug, it’s just not worth it.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

END
A must read..
Schiff correctly states that printing money will not cure the coronavirus problem
(Peter Schiff)

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not The Cure For Coronavirus

Via SchiffGold.com,

In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets.

Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system.

All this means more liquidity – central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.”

Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up —  and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs.

In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.”

In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question.

The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down.

Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks and central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.”

Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy.

In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.”

Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up.

The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.”

Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies.

Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.”

Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy  – which of course, is not booming.

end

FREIGHT SHIPPING INDEX//  ex-CORONAVIRUS

The coronavirus is taking its toll on the global economy:  the largest shipping decline since the great recession of 2009 and this is ex coronavirus data

(zerohedge)

Largest Shipping Decline Since 2009 And That’s Before Coronavirus

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The January Cass Freight Shipping Index is more bad news for the global economy.

The Cass Freight Shipping Index is down 9.4% year-over-year, the largest decline since 2009. And this is for January, before the Coronavirus disruption.

The turn of the calendar didn’t leave the bad news in 2019, as the Cass Freight Index showed continued weakness in the U.S. freight market. Both the shipments and expenditures components of the Cass Freight Index worsened sequentially and showed decelerating y/y growth. According to the broader stock market levels, there is still optimism out there, but the freight trends have yet to turn. And the Covid-19 coronavirus case count continues to grow, creating uncertainty around containment and eventual impact on global supply chains. Some Chinese factories resumed operation this past week, but they are still not close to 100% production levels. Others have pushed re-opening back to March 1.

Shipping Volumes

Cass Freight Index

Even before the coronavirus issues have any impact on the U.S. transportation market, the freight market is weak, partially due to elevated inventories.

Cass Air Freight Demand

Cass Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, measuring per-mile linehaul rates, takes a look at the largest (and most fragmented) market in the domestic transportation landscape, and it showed a y/y decline of 6.3% in January (a big step-down from the -3.3% in December), as capacity loosened after a tight holiday shipping period.

Consumer Confidence

On the plus side, going into 2020, the sentiment index for consumer confidence remains high. This is why the freight (and industrial) data has not translated into worse news for the broader economy yet. If this trend continues, it will provide support for the economy and likely guarantee the President a second term in office.

Consumer Confidence Silliness

That’s more than a bit nonsensical.

If consumer confidence helped shipping, then the shipping index would not be the down 9.4% year-over-year, with a two-year change of -9.6%, and the worst decline since 2009.

Virus Probably With Us Beyond 2020

The above from Coronavirus Expert Opinions.

CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield says “I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we’ll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don’t understand this virus.

Also note Harvard Professor Says Global Coronavirus Pandemic is Likely

Massive Shipping Disruptions Coming Up

The most important aspect of this report is that coronavirus implications are not yet reflected in the charts.

Note that Half the Population of China, 760 Million, Now Locked Down

Supply chain disruptions have barely started.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

ARGENTINA/IMF

As we warned you two years ago, Argentina in  short order would eventually default on their new loans.  Argentina announced today that its debt load is unsustainable and they will default.

(zerohedge)

Two Years After Handing It The Biggest Ever Bailout Loan, IMF Finds Argentina Debt Levels Are “Unsustainable”

Back in the summer of 2018, when the IMF handed Argentina an unprecedented $56 billion bailout loan, the largest in IMF history, some warned that this is a case of deja vu similar to the 2001/2002 precedent when Argentina eventually defaulted on its foreign creditors, while humiliating the IMF which had signed off on Argentina’s economic policies that ended up in bankruptcy court. The IMF, however, was confident that this time would be different, and rushed – under now-ECB head Christine Lagarde – to hand to Argentina the greatest amount of money the IMF had ever disbursed to a struggling nation.

It turned out that this time wasn’t different, and after completing a week of meetings in Argentine, the IMF – which so generously handed out other people’s money to prop up the crumbling, corrupt Latin American nation less than two years aqo – finally threw in the towel and admitted that Argentina’s debt load is unsustainable, paving the way for the government to ask private bondholders to take on losses as it prepares to renegotiate its obligations.

The last time IMF officials commented on Argentina’s debt was in the fourth review of the credit line in July 2019, when they called it sustainable, but not with a high probability.”

Oops. But it gets better.

 

A “meaningful contribution” will be necessary from private bondholders to restore the country’s debt sustainability, the IMF wrote in a statement Wednesday following talks with Argentine officials during its first technical mission in Buenos Aires under Alberto Fernandez’s presidency.

“The primary surplus that would be needed to reduce public debt and gross financing needs to levels consistent with manageable rollover risk and satisfactory potential growth is not  economically nor politically feasible,” the Fund said, in what may be the most embarrassing moment in the Fund’s history.

Why embarrassing? Because as Hector Torres, a former executive director at the Fund who represented South American countries, said last summer, “The IMF has put a lot in — not just money, but prestige,” to avoid a default. “The fact that the arrangement is not performing well right now is an embarrassment,” he said. Little did he know just how embarrassing it would get.

As discussed previously, Fernandez is seeking to renegotiate billions of dollars in debt with private creditors, including the infamous $56 billion loan with the Washington-based organization.

Argentina’s record IMF loan has been on hold since August after Fernandez pulled off a shock upset of incumbent Mauricio Macri in a presidential primary vote, sending markets reeling.

“IMF staff emphasized the importance of continuing a collaborative process of engagement with private creditors to maximize their participation in the debt operation,” according to the statement. Meanwhile, Argentina’s economy has collapsed, the currency has plunged, bonds prices have been in freefall and debt rose to nearly 90% of GDP at the end of 2019, the Fund said.

But the biggest pain now await bondholders, some of whom were so dumb to actually buy 100 year bonds from Argentina. Guzman warned investors (or at least their replacement since those who made the original investment were surely summarily fired) last week they’ll probably be frustrated with negotiations, which he intends to wrap up by the end of March. South America’s second-largest nation owes over $38.7 billion to bondholders just this year, and payments peak in May. There is no way it can make those payments without magic.

END

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1219 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.85 DOWN 0.074 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2485   DOWN   0.0052  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3059 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 54.75 POINTS OR 1.84% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.65 POINTS OR 0.17%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,25%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.65 POINTS OR 0.17%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 54.75 POINTS OR 1.84%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 25% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 78.45  POINTS OR 0.34%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1617.60

silver:$18.40-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.54% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.98 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.81 UP 1 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers  THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.23% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.23%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.91 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 68 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.41% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0800  DOWN     .0009 or 9 basis points

USA/Japan: 111.86 UP .667 OR YEN DOWN 67  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2883 DOWN .0044 POUND DOWN 44  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 39 basis points to 1.3261

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0230    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0482  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1049 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.51 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.96 DOWN 6 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 9.80 UP 1  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 20.38  0.27%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 125.00 POINTS OR .91%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 48.94 POINTS 0.80%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 152.60 POINTS or 1.51%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 397,39 POINTS OR 1.56%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.72 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.38 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    63.05  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.64 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 64 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.41 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.78//

 

 

BRENT :  59.29

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.52..down 4 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.97..down 5 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0787 ( down 23   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.09 UP .899 (YEN DOWN 90 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.88 UP 17 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2877 DOWN 48  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.1012

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.65   DOWN 0.63 Roubles against the uSA dollar.(DOWN 63 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3261 DOWN 40 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0230  (ONSHORE)/

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 67.0462 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.41%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 128.90 POINTS OR 0.44%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 66.22 POINTS OR 0.67%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.47 CLOSED UP 1.09

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.694%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

European Close Sparks Buying-Panic Bid After Morning Momo Massacre

The head of the WHO says “this is no time for complacency.” Goldman warns “stocks are underestimating the effect of the virus.” Morgan Stanley warns of a “factor crash.” JPMorgan  warned “this bubble will collapse.” Headlines suggesting a major increase in virus cases in Beijing. And an increasing number of firms are cutting outlooks and pointing to uncertainty about resumption of supply chains from China.

To quote John Wick “Oh, yeah, I think China’s back…” NOT!

Source: Bloomberg

 

So, it’s only right that we would sell off…

BRIEFLY… before dip-buyers rampaged back into the market after Europe closed to soothe the fraying nerves…

The big move in markets occurred around 11-1130ET (into the European close).

The hyper-stocks – PLUG, TSLA, SPCE for example – all collapsed only to be ramped back to vwap…

Momentum was monkey-hammered…

Source: Bloomberg

The ‘low-vol’-related factors crashed…

Source: Bloomberg

FAANG stocks all plunged symmetrically…

Source: Bloomberg

Some argued that the trigger for stocks was the 30Y Yield breaking to new 2020 lows intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the plunge sent all major US indices into the red for the week (except Trannies) but once Europe had closed, the bid was back… Small Caps and Nasdaqa pushed back into the green on the week…

Intraday, the collapse saw the most negative TICK since August

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals suffered the most damage in the mid-morning dump…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields all tumbled intraday with the long-end outperforming (30-5bps, 2Y -3bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Yields are approaching record lows once again with the 30Y within 1bps of a record low close…

Source: Bloomberg

…while stocks are at record highs?

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve tumbled to its most inverted since Oct 19th…

Source: Bloomberg

The market has started to demand more rate-cuts in 2020… to save us all…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar Index (DXY) for the 12th day in the last 14 to its highest since May 2017 (and the critical 100.00 level)…

Source: Bloomberg

JPY continued its collapse…the biggest 2-day crash in the yen since Sept 2017

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing JPY to near record lows against gold…

Source: Bloomberg

And the Euro is at its weakest ever against gold…

Source: Bloomberg

And Turkey’s Lira crashed back near record lows against the dollar and pushed every weaker against gold…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Cryptos were all down on the day after an early morning pukefest across the entire space…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin puked back below $10,000… again…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold and oil were higher today with small drops for copper and silver…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold topped $1620 – its highest since March 2013…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude rallied back above $54 intraday – one-month highs…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally… Spot The Odd One Out!

Source: Bloomberg

Something bad better happen soon to prompt global liquidity to re-accelerate or stocks are going to be very disappointed…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

No Mo’ Momo – Gold Soars As Stocks & Bond Yields Suddenly Plunge

While the catalyst for this sudden move is unclear, the fact is a notable regime shift is underway today in factors as the long-momo-short-value trade is reversing fast as Treasury yields tumble.

Is this the start of a September-like reversal

As all the insane high-flyers are getting hammered…

And that is weighing down the overall market…

With 30Y Yields back at their lowest since Sept 2019…

A notable break in the correlation between rates and momentum…

And Gold continues to surge…

Is reality finally setting in?

ii)Market data/USA

Even though the Chicago PMI fell last week, surprisingly in this soft data, the Philly Fed soared to its second highest level since the financial crisis.  Go figure..

(zerohedge)

Philly Fed Unexpectedly Soars To Second Highest Since Financial Crisis

Anyone expecting the coronavirus pandemic to hit regional Fed surveys following the recent plunge in the Chicago PMI was in for a disappointment this week, when first the NY Fed’s Empire State mfg survey unexpectedly printed at the highest since mid-2018, and then moments ago the Philly Fed blew it out of the ballpark with a massive surge in its business outlook survey, where the current general activity rose nearly 20 points this month to 36.7, smashing expectations of a drop from 17.0 to 11.0, and the highest index reading since February 2017. More importantly, this was the second highest print since the financial crisis.

The Philly Fed was merely the latest regional Fed to not confirm the recent weakness telegraphed by the Chicago PMI which earlier this month tumbled to the lowest level since 2015.

Commenting on the monthly report, the Philadelphia Fed said that “the survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased this month,suggesting more widespread growth.  The firms reported expansion in  employment, although at a moderated pace from January. The survey’s broad future indexes also showed improvement this month, indicating that growth is expected to continue over the next six months.”

That said it wasn’t clear just what catalyst sparked such manufacturing sector euphoria, aside perhaps form a delayed kneejerk reaction to the Trump trade war ceasefire.

The percentage of firms reporting increases(52 percent) this month exceeded the percentage reporting decreases(15 percent). As shown in the table below, the index for new orders increased 15 points to 33.6, its highest reading since May 2018. Over 50 percent of the firms reported an increase in new orders, up from 46 percent in January. The current shipments index increased 2 points. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes moved into positive territory this month, suggesting slightly higher unfilled orders and slower delivery times.

To be sure, it wasn’t all roses: while firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, the current employment index decreased 10 points to 9.8. Just 18 percent of the firms reported higher employment, compared with 28 percent last month. The average workweek index, however, increased 5 points.

Alas, don’t expect this number to be repeated with the latest batch of private sector PMIs starting tomorrow, with trade war far in the rearview mirror and instead businesses now freaking out over what the collapse in Chinese supply chains means for the profits and viability.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Procter & Gamble warns that coronavirus will have material impact on March quarter earnings

Feb 20, 2020 9:41 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble Co. PG, +0.48% warned Thursday that the coronavirus that broke out in Wuhan, China late last year is creating supply and demand challenges in China, its second biggest market, with many stores closed or operating reduced hours. The company is expecting the virus to materially impact earnings for the January to March quarter in China and for the overall company. “We continue to believe, based on what we know today, that our fiscal year top and bottom line guidance ranges-and I emphasize ranges-remain the right ones,” Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer Jon Moeller said in a statement. ” We will continue to monitor the situation and obviously update you if and when a different reality becomes apparent.” Some China demand has shifted online in the face of shuttered stores, but supply of delivery operators is limited. Outside of China, the company is being hurt by a significant slowdown in traffic to department stores in Asian cities and towns. The company has 387 suppliers in China that ship to it globally more than 9,000 materials, impacting about 17,600 different finished products. Shares rose 0.7% in early trade, and have gained 27% in the last 12 months, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.16% has gained 13% and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.16% has gained 22%.

-END-

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Democrat and Obama appointee Amy Berman Jackson sentences Roger Stone to 40 months in jail. She will rule shortly on whether Roger Stone can have a new trial.

Trump will no doubt wait in the wings ready to pardon him on this ridiculous sentence

(zerohedge)

Roger Stone Sentenced To More Than Three Years In Prison

Longtime Trump ally Roger Stone was sentenced to 40 months in prison and pay a $20,000 fine on Thursday for witness tampering and lying to Congress. He will be on probation upon his release.

Megan Mineiro@MMineiro_CNS

Breakdown of Roger Stone’s sentence:

COUNT 1 – 40 MONTHS
COUNT 2 to 6 — 12 MONTHS
COUNTS 7 — 18 MONTHS

*all to run concurrently*

Despite a controversial move by AG William Barr to overrule federal prosecutors’ recommended sentence, Judge Amy Berman Jackson added enhanced ‘points’ to his sentencing guideline as the hearing went on, saying ‘Stone’s belligerence and lies are a threat to the very foundation of our democracy.’

“The truth still exists,” she added. “The truth still matters.”

Megan Mineiro@MMineiro_CNS

Judge Jackson says on Roger Stone’s obstruction of justice “this is intolerable to the administration of justice and the court should not sit ideally by, shrug its shoulders and say well that is just roger being roger.”

The execution of the sentence will be delayed until Jackson decides whether Stone’s request for a new trial after the jury forewoman in his case – a former Democratic political candidate, outed herself as a far-left Democrat who had posted inflammatory anti-Trump content on social media.

Stone was convicted in November on seven counts, including lying to Congress, tampering with a witness, and obstructing House Democrats’ investigation into Russian collusion, according to AP.

Thursday’s jail sentence comes on the heels of a mini-revolt inside the Justice Department after Attorney General William Barr overrode four career prosecutors, who recommended an absurd 7-9 years in prison for process crimes – a decision that President Trump called a “miscarriage of justice.”

“I haven’t given it any thought … but I think he’s been treated very unfairly,” said Trump this week, who called the original sentence a “miscarriage of justice.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

This is a horrible and very unfair situation. The real crimes were on the other side, as nothing happens to them. Cannot allow this miscarriage of justice! https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1227016256227807232 

Chuck Ross

@ChuckRossDC

Prosecutors recommend up to NINE YEARS in prison for Roger Stone.

They call foreign election interference a “deadly adversary” even though Stone was never accused of working with Russians or WikiLeaks. https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/10/prosecutors-nine-years-prison-roger-stone/ 

Following Barr’s decision to override the recommendation, the four prosecutors resigned in protest, sparking calls for his resignation.

Prosecutors had charged in the filing that Stone “decided to double- and triple-down on his criminal conduct by tampering with a witness for months in order to make sure his obstruction would be successful.”

“Stone’s actions were not a one-off mistake in judgment. Nor were his false statements made in the heat of the moment. They were nowhere close to that,” prosecutors wrote in the court papers.

But Justice Department officials said they were caught off guard by the recommendation, even though the acting U.S. Attorney in Washington, D.C., Timothy Shea, is a former top aide to Barr. The attorney general ordered a new memorandum with a less harsh punishment, though it left provided no specifics and left the details to the judge. –AP

Stone, 67, has consistently denied wrongdoing, and has claimed the case against him is politically motivated.

Comfortably Smug@ComfortablySmug

PARDON HIM @realDonaldTrump !! https://twitter.com/colvinj/status/1230546791105474562 

Jill Colvin

@colvinj

WASHINGTON (AP) — Trump loyalist Roger Stone gets 40 months in prison after Justice Department backs off sentencing recommendation.

Bolton’s book is a nothingburger
(zerohedge)

Bolton Admits Testimony Based On Leaked Book Excerpts Would Have Been Impeachment Nothingburger

Former National Security Advisor John Bolton told an audience at Vanderbilt University on Wednesday night that his testimony in President Trump’s impeachment proceedings would have had no impact on the outcome of the trial, despite assurances from Congressional Democrats of game-changing revelations based on leaked sections of his upcoming book.

“People can argue about what I should have said and what I should have done,” said Bolton, adding “I will bet you a dollar right here and now my testimony would have made no difference to the ultimate outcome.”

“I sleep at night because I have followed my conscience,” he said.

His predecessor, Susan Rice, pushed back – suggesting that his decision to remain silent during the impeachment process was “inconceivable” despite never having been subpoenaed, according to The Federalist.

“It’s inconceivable to me that if I had firsthand knowledge of a gross abuse of presidential power, that I would withhold my testimony,” Rice said, adding “I would feel like I was shamefully violating my oath that I took to support and defend the Constitution.”

Bolton argued that the House botched the process and condemned House Democrats for having committed “impeachment malpractice.”

“The process drove Republicans who might have voted for impeachment away from the president because it was so partisan,” Bolton claimed.

Bolton’s new book, “The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir,” is slated to be released next month is expected to reveal what Bolton might have said had he been forced to testify before lawmakers in the impeachment proceedings. Republicans in the Senate defeated Democrats’ efforts to bring Bolton before the upper chamber before the final vote with only Sens. Mitt Romney of Utah and Susan Collins of Maine voting in favor of the measure. –The Federalist

Sections of Bolton’s book infamously leaked to the New York Times at the 11th hour of Trump’s impeachment, in which he accuses the president of tying nearly $400 million in military aid to Ukraine to investigations he wanted into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter, as well as whether Ukraine’s previous administration meddled in the 2016 US election.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

China Considers Cash Injections, Mergers to Bail out Airlines

One proposal involves allowing some of the nation’s biggest carriers — which are controlled by the state — to absorb smaller ones…The government measures under consideration also include offering loan repayment waivers and more favorable leasing terms for aircraft, the people said…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-19/china-said-to-mull-cash-injections-mergers-to-bail-out-airlines

@washingtonpost: White House advisers privately float minimum tax on corporations amid blowback over 2017 GOP law [as part of Tax Cuts 2.0, tax cuts for the middle class]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/19/white-house-advisers-privately-float-minimum-tax-corporations-amid-blowback-over-2017-gop-law

@paulsperry_: Durham has interviewed several of the FBI investigators who worked on Mueller’s team during his 2017-2018 inquiry, further suggestingDurham’s probe may be expanding into the activities of the Special Counsel’s office[Another reason for the recent attacks on Barr!]

 

K.T. McFarland Says Mueller Interrogators Put Her through ‘Hell’ and Left Her ‘Trauamatized’

Robert Mueller’s team pressured her for “20, 30, 40 hours of hell” to either cop a plea or implicate other Trump associates in crimes, even though she didn’t think she or they did anything wrong… “At one point, I turned to my lawyer and said, ‘just tell me what they want me to say and I’ll say it!’… I finally said, no, you’re going to have to charge me with a crime… At that point, they went away because I couldn’t give them what they needed to spin their web. And then they moved on to the porn star queen… “They’re all part of the same group and they think they’re the ones in charge,” she said…

https://amgreatness.com/2020/02/19/k-t-mcfarland-says-mueller-interrogators-put-her-through-hell-and-left-her-trauamatized/#.Xk2pDaJEc98.twitter

 

Bill Barr Derangement Syndrome

The supposed institutionalists and civil libertarians who are piling on Barr are more outraged that the attorney general wants to get to the bottom of this abuse — and related 2016 investigatory overreach — than by the abuse itself…   https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/02/bill-barr-derangement-syndrome-left-panic-over-attorney-general/

 

DOJ Corruption – The Fork in the Road… What Bill Barr Needs to Explain to Everyone…

The DOJ made a decision not to prosecute Wolfe for leaking classified information. DC U.S. Attorney Jessie Liu signed-off on a plea deal where Wolfe plead guilty to only a single count of lying to the FBI.

    If the DOJ had pursued the case against Wolfe for leaking the FISA application, everything would have been different.  The American electorate would have seen evidence of what was taking place in the background effort to remove President Trump. We would be in an entirely different place today if that prosecution or trial had taken place… On February 9th, 2018, the media reported on text messages from 2017 between Senate Intelligence Committee Vice-Chairman Mark Warner and Chris Steele’s lawyer, a lobbyist named Adam Waldman…

A prosecution of Wolfe would have exposed a complicit conspiracy between corrupt U.S. intelligence actors and the United States Senate…  Had the prosecution continued it’s very likely a seditious conspiracy would have surfaced…  https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/16/doj-corruption-the-fork-in-the-road-few-noticed-what-bill-barr-needs-to-explain-to-everyone/

 

Amy Klobuchar speaking at the Culinary Union forum: “My name is Amy. When I was in fourth grade Spanish, they gave me the name Elena…”   https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1229962240167677953

 

Sanders says he won’t release full medical records   http://hill.cm/bMVYXm8

 

NBC’s @JoshNBCNews: Campaign officials tell @NBCNews that Mike Bloomberg will *NOT* stand on a box during tonight’s debate, despite Trump’s repeated claims that he requested one to boost his height

[DJT mission accomplished with beaucoup unintentional MSM aid!]

 

Bloomberg Recommended Confronting Native American Tribes with Cowboy Hat, Shotgun

Bloomberg, who had then just been elected to a third term as mayor of New York City, made the insensitive comments during his weekly segment on WOR 710-AM with John Gambling in August 2010. At the time, then-New York governor David Patterson was proposing to tax cigarettes sold on Native American reservations in hopes of raising revenue to fill the state’s budget deficit…

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/02/19/bloomberg-recommended-confronting-native-american-tribes-with-cowboy-hat-shotgun/

 

Bloomberg told Trump ‘yes, Donald, I do love you’ in resurfaced clip from 2016

Bloomberg… was speaking at Oxford’s Saïd Business School about a month after the president was elected in November 2016… “But you really do love me, don’t ya?” Bloomberg recalled Trump asking him. “And I said, ‘Yes, Donald, I do love you, I just disagree with everything you’ve ever said.’”…

https://nypost.com/2020/02/19/bloomberg-told-trump-yes-donald-i-do-love-you-in-resurfaced-clip-from-2016/

 

WaPo: Sanders surges into double-digit [32%, Biden 16%, BBG 14%] lead in new nationwide poll

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sanders-surges-into-national-lead-in-new-post-abc-poll/2020/02/19/868266a4-5280-11ea-929a-64efa7482a77_story.html

 

Panicked Democrat Establishment Turns to Biden Harris Avennati Michelle Obama Bloomberg

Even if he can buy the Democratic nomination, he’s not what their base voters want…

https://thefederalist.com/2020/02/19/panicked-democrat-establishment-turns-to-bloomberg/#.Xk02plTY_at.twitter

 

WaPo op-ed: It’s time to give the elites a bigger say in choosing the president by Marquette University professor Julia Azar [With populism increasing daily, elites are increasingly panicking.]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/18/fix-primaries-let-elites-decide/

 

WaPo Claims Elites Should Run Elections; Quietly Edits Article After Public Outrage Ensues

The Post changed the headline to the far less inflammatory “It’s time to switch to preference primaries.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/wapo-claims-elites-should-run-elections-quietly-edits-article-after-public-outrage-ensues

 

@DonaldJTrumpJr: Dems are mad at Trump for “abusing” his pardon power. Total Presidential pardons/sentence commutations: Carter: 566; Reagan: 406; H.W Bush: 77; Bill C: 459; George W: 200; Obama: 1,927; Trump: 26

 

@realDonaldTrump: Rod Blagojevich did not sell the Senate seat. He served 8 years in prison, with many remaining. He paid a big price. Another Comey and gang deal!…

 

Former Illinois Governor Blagojevich Was Imprisoned by Mueller, Comey and Deep State Gang – President Trump’s Release of Blago Sends Deep State a Message

     While F.B.I. Agents and the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois, Patrick Fitzgerald, were investigating Rezko as a means to gather evidence against Blagojevich, Rezko was also one of three members of the campaign finance committee for an Illinois State Senator running for the U.S. Senate, Barack H. Obama. Valerie Jarrett, then President of a firm that managed public housing, and Alison Davis, Obama’s boss in a law firm that catered to Chicago slum landlords, were the other two members of the Obama for U.S. Senate Campaign Committee… Loretta Lynch used someone by the name of Bernard Barton, who changed his name to John Thomas, who was arrested for crimes in New York and was later wired up to spy on Chicago politicians… 

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/must-read-former-illinois-governor-blagojevich-was-imprisoned-by-mueller-comey-and-deep-state-gang-president-trumps-release-of-blago-sends-deep-state-a-message/

Who helped Barack Obama avoid the taint of Chicago corruption? – Barton-Thomas did not testify in Tony Rezko’s or Rod Blagojevich’s trial.  And, not one word of any of his recorded transcripts was ever made public. Was that because the information wasn’t needed, or because it would have broadened the scope of the investigation beyond its intent, and perhaps included Obama?…

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/06/who_helped_barack_obama_avoid_the_taint_of_chicago_corruption_.html

 

@ JudicialWatch: Over 11 years ago, the FBI interviewed Barack Obama about the sale of his Senate seat in Illinois. There is an FBI “302” report of interview. But rather than releasing document, the DOJ has fought Judicial Watch tooth and nail to keep the document secret! Wonder why?

Dem candidates attacked Bloomberg and each other with mucho vitriol last night at the Dem Debate in Nevada.  Amy Klobuchar made another risible statement: “Nominating a woman as Dem candidate would stop sexism on the internet”.   Did Amy forget about Hillary?

 

@NBCPolitics: 34 total attacks in the first 20 minutes at the #DemDebate. Joe Biden is the only candidate who hasn’t been attacked yet. [Cuz the other candidates think he’s finished.]

 

The Intercept’s @lhfang: One minor redeeming factor is Bloomberg’s freewheeling candor, which led to all these crazy clips surfacing in recent days. The flip side is that Bloomberg is awful liar and him trying to recast his beliefs doesn’t come across at all.

 

@MarkSimoneNY: Bloomberg getting stomped into the ground by Elizabeth Warren and getting completely slapped around by old Joe Biden, totally brings to an end any thought that he could ever be in a debate with Donald Trump.

 

@ScottMcConnell9: Bloomberg hasn’t had someone disagree with him in 10 years. It shows.

 

@amber_athey: Bloomberg had nothing to gain by going on that stage tonight. He was surging in polls and the oppo research dump didn’t seem to affect him at all. Now that these issues are being brought up on the debate stage and it’s clear that Bloomberg has no answer for them, it’s disastrous.

 

@bpmehlman: Bloomberg brought a wallet to a knife fight.

 

Bloomberg was a huge loser last night at the debate.  Some pundits opined that he did so poorly and appeared so unlikeable that he should drop out.  Pundits believe Bernie Sanders was the big winner.

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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