FEB24//DOW PLUMMETS 1029 POINTS//NADAQ DOWN 355 POINTS ON HUGE NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES IN ITALY, SOUTH KOREA, IRAN//GOLD RESPONDS UP $28.40 TO $1674.50 AND SILVER UP 35 CENTS TO $18.91//IN THE ACCESS MARKET, THE BIS ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER RAID ON THE PRECIOUS METALS//BIG STORIES ON THE CORONAVIRUS IN IRAN, SOUTH KOREA AND ITALY// SOME SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1674.50 UP $28.40    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

Silver:$18.91 UP 35 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

Closing access prices:

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

Gold :  $1659.60

 

silver:  $18.60

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  0/18

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,644.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/21/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 02/25/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 17
700 H UBS 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 10
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 18 18
MONTH TO DATE: 7,945

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 18 NOTICE(S) FOR 1800 OZ (0.0559 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7945 NOTICES FOR 794500 OZ  (24.712 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEB

 

 

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 289 for 1,445,000 oz

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 2098 CONTRACTS FROM 242,073 UP TO 244,171 WITH OUR STRONG 22 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED WITHIN A WHISKER OF OUR AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  2361 AND MAY: 960 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3321 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3321 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3321 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.61 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 22 CENT ADVANCE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.445    MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

 

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 22 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE NO DOUBT UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5419 CONTRACTS. OR 27.09 MILLION OZ…..   WE HAD NO LONG LIQUIDATION AND WE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING, JUST A HUGE ACCUMULATION OF SILVER LONG CONTRACTS ENTERING BOTH EXCHANGES.

 

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION AND THAT EXPLAINS THE RISE IN COMEX OI DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

22,901 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 22901 CONTRACTS) OR 114.51 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1527 CONTRACTS OR 7.633 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 114.5MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 16.35% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          296.12 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     114.51 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2098, WITH THE STRONG 22 CENT ADVANCE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3221 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  SIZED:  5419 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE 22 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

i.e 3321 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2098 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A STRONG 22 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.56 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.221 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 174% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR  5,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.445 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY SMALL SIZED 102 CONTRACTS TO 731,247 AND MOVING  CLOSER TO  OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE ADVANCE OF $28.60 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY// WE, MOST LIKELY HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THAT ADVANCE IN PRICE.  TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S (SEE BELOW) OUR BANKER FRIENDS BASICALLY COULD NOT FLEECE ANY LONGS FROM ANY GOLD ARENA AND THUS OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES!  

 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,308 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 11,308; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 11,308.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 731,247,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,410 CONTRACTS: 102 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 11,308 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 11,410 CONTRACTS OR 1,141,000 OZ OR 35.49 TONNES. FRIDAY, WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF $28.60 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 38.01  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (GAIN $28.60). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AGAIN AS WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (11,308) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI.(931):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  11,410 CONTRACTS.  WE DID HAVE SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX DUE TO THE HUGE ADVANCE IN PRICE.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 136,421 CONTRACTS OR 13,642,100 oz OR 424.32 TONNES (15 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8858 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 424.32 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 424.32/3550 x 100% TONNES =11.95% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   994.51  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            424.32  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 102 DESPITE THE VERY STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($28.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,308 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,308 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 11,410 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11,308 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  102 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 35.49 TONNES). AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $28.60 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

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OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1762 CONTRACTS FROM 242,852 DOWN TO 243,535 AND MUCH CLOSER TO  OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

EFP ISSUANCE 119

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  2361:  AND MAY: 960; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3321 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1762 CONTRACTS TO THE 3321 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 5083 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 25.41 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.440 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE STRONG 22 CENT RISE IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 3321 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.28%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 487,93 POINTS OR 1.79%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 92.41 POINTS OR 0.39%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7.0330 /Oil DOWN TO 51.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.15 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0330 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0384 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

i)South Korea/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/SATURDAY AFTERNOON

We have two clusters which account for 80% of the confirmed cases:

  1. the Church
  2. the psychiatric ward

they have not put the two together yet.

It started with one super spreader patient no 31 who attended church services at this special cult church.  How the psychiatric ward at the hospital got so many infections remains a mystery for now.  The two original deaths came from the hospital psychiatric  ward.

(zerohedge)

ii)SOUTH KOREA/ITALY/ISRAEL/CHINA/ IRAN//THE GLOBE/SUNDAY MORNING/UPDATE

Three areas witness a huge increase in deaths and cases:
1. South Korea
2 Italy
3. Iran
Israel has isolated 200 individuals and are doing everything possible to control an outbreak
(zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/THE GLOBE/SATURDAY MORNING

  • Italy confirms second death, 12 towns on lockdown, more than 30 cases confirmed
  • Japan cases triple in a week to 121
  • Chinese scientists find virus in urine
  • Experts propose 27 day quarantine, say 14 days likely not long enough
  • Cases outside China go exponential
  • WHO team visits Wuhan; will give Monday press conference
  • Iran reports 10 new cases, deaths climb to 5
  • San Diego says 200 under ‘medical observation’
  • Young woman infected five relatives without ever showing symptoms
  • South Korea cases surge 8-fold in 4 days to 433; country reports third death

ii)CHINA/LUXURY GOODS/SATURDAY REPORT

The coronavirus is doing a number on global luxury good sales.

(zerohedge)

iii)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/PROOF NOT FROM FISH MARKET/SUNDAY

Eventually they will come to realize that the COVID 19 virus originated in a lab in Winnipeg Canada.  The lab a level 4 operation, was working on mutating coronaviruses. These viruses found their way into the Wuhan level 4 lab and patient zero is a worker at the lab. She probably went for lunch at the fish market which is 90 feet away and the rest is history…
(zerohedge)
iv)CHINA/ECONOMICS/CORONAVIRUS
A must read:  HOW THE VIRUS WILL DESTROY OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEM AS 85% of businesses will run out of cash//huge bank failures
(zerohedge)

v)Even Xi warns of a huge economic fallout(zerohedge)

vi)Daniel Lacalle explains how there will be severe disruptions in supply chain management affecting total global growth

(Daniel Lacalle)

vii)Chinese workers refuse to go back to work despite Beijing’s demands(zeorhedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/CHINA UPDATE/mONDAY MORNING

Italy the heartland of the Europe’s large manufacturing reports its sixth death and they are being quarantined. It is grim and complete

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/SUNDAY/RADIO FREE EUROPE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/sunday

Everybody closes its borders to Iran as they record 5 days.

(Radio Free Europe)

ii)ISRAEL/CORONAVIRUS/JERUSALEM POST/UPDATE SUNDAY

Second coronavirus case in Israel is confirmed but it is from the Dream Princess . Israel is still safe..they throw out all citizens of Asian descent…putting them on a plane back home.

iii)IRAN/ CHINA/SOUTH KOREA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/MONDAY

Very scary Iran’s death toll is supposedly reached 50.  As I stated to you on Friday these guys have no capability of controlling the virus

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)CANADA

this is not good:  They may have to quarantine Montreal and Vancouver

(City news)

ii)Michael Every:

he has now shifted his base case to ugly

(Michael Every)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)Garbage news:  India not not strike gold at all

Mises/India

ii)Pam and Russ explain why we had a flash crash in the stock market on Friday

(Pam and Russ Martens)

iii)Dan Oliver explains why he thinks they will push gold past 10,000 per oz

(Oliver)

 

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)CORONAVIRUS/USA PATIENTS/DIAMOND PRINCESS (OFF OF JAPAN)

UPDATE USA//

Trump furious at bureaucrats who let coronavirus patients fly home against his orders

(zerohedge)

ii)Does Mnuchin still have all his marbles? Washington still expects China to meet its trade deal commitments despite the huge outbreak globally

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)They should throw this biased judge off the bench.  Roger Stone did nothing wrong except bloviate a bit

Trump will pardon him once Judge Jackson makes here decision whether to have a new trial or not

(Julie Kelly/AmGreatness.com)

b)And it begins…..

Stone moves to remove Jackson from the case although it is unlikely to succeed.  However he does deserve a new trial. It really does not matter because Trump will pardon Stone once Jackson decides whether a new trial is warranted

(J Turley)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY SMALL SIZED 102 CONTRACTS TO 731,247 MOVING MUCH CLOSER  TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GAIN IN OI WAS SET WITH A STRONG GAIN OF $28.60 IN GOLD PRICING //FRIDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER MOST OF THE OFFERED CONTRACTS  LANDED IN ANOTHER HUGE EFP ISSUANCE,.  THUS WE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX BUT NO LONG LIQUIDATION ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE HUGELY IN OPEN INTEREST..

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,308 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 11,308,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 11,308 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED 11,410 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,308 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 102 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. 

 

THE BANKERS WERUNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $28.60). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 11,410 CONTRACTS ….(35.49 TONNES) WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY NO DOUBT WERE QUITE NERVOUS WITH THE PRICE RISE COUPLED WITH DISTURBING WORLDLY EVENTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  11410 CONTRACTS OR 1,141,000 OZ OR 35.49 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  730,436 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 73.04 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,272 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,272/2200 OR 103.39% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 1762 CONTRACTS FROM 242,073 UP TO 243,835 (AND EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR HUGE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 22 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/FRIDAY. HOWEVER WE MUST BE COGNIZANT THAT A GOOD NUMBER OF COMEX OI ARE SPREADERS.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

FEB IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 1 CONTRACT SHOWING A LOSS OF 1 CONTRACT//FRIDAY TRADING. WE HAD 2 NOTICES SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR 5,000 OZ OF ADDITIONAL SILVER OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH THEY NEGATED A FIAT BONUS

 

 

March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 18,502 contracts  DOWN TO 69,113

APRIL saw a gain of 202 contracts up to 1003.

MAY had a good 19,428 gain in oi to stand at 127,678.

 

 

 

We, today, had  1 notice(s)  for 5,000, OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 628,806 contracts..volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  520,686 contracts//high volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

 

FEB 24/2020

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
18 notice(s)
 1800 OZ
(0.0559 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
234 contracts
(23400 oz)
0.7278 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7945 notices
794500 OZ
24.712 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had  0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else  nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  nil  oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

total gold withdrawals;  nil  oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  3  (all 3 will be deemed settlements)

a)OUT OF HSBC:

12,141.241 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC and we will deem this a settlement;

b) Out of Int. Delaware 9252.394. oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Int. Delaware

c) Out of Scotia:  5908.05 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into he customer account of Scotia

total deemed weight settlement:  .8558 oz

 

 

 

The front month of February saw its open interest FALL by 118 contracts DOWN to 252 contracts.  We had 68 notices filed upon yesterday, so we LOST 50 contracts or an additional 5000 oz will NOT stand for delivery in NEW YORK and THUS, THEY NOW MORPHED into London based forwards as well as ACCEPT a fiat bonus. THEIR SEARCH FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND ENDED AS IT WAS A FUTILE SEARCH AT BEST. The March non active contract month saw its OI FALL by 691 contracts DOWN to 1962.  The big April contract month saw its OI FALL by 3911 contracts DOWN to 530,691.

 

We had 18 notices filed today for 1800 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 18 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7945) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (252 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (18 x 100 oz per contract) equals 817,900 OZ OR 25.440 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (7945 x 100 oz)  + (252)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (18 x 100 oz )which equals 817,900 oz standing OR 25.440 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a February delivery month.

 

We LOST 50 contracts or 5000 oz LEFT USA shores to visit the Queen in London AND SEARCH OUT METAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.  They  ACCEPTED A London based gold forwards as well as ACCEPTING a fiat bonus FOR THEIR EFFORT.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 37.485 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.440 tonnes

 

total: 155.7846 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 25,645 TONNES SETTLED (includes the 1.0445 tonnes of today)

 

IF WE ADD THE 7 DELIVERY MONTHS: 155.7846  tonnes

 

Thus:

155.7846 tonnes of delivery –

25.645 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT (includes today’s .8558 tonnes of settlement)

=130.1396 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 36.6300 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,353,869.021 oz or  42.111 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,177,657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,177657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,663,541.978 oz 269.49 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 24 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 514,835.087 oz
CNT

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,189,258.510 oz
CNT
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  289 contracts

1,445,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

i) into Scotia:  589,576.780

ii) Into CNT: 599,681.730 oz

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.92% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/323.167 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,189,258.510   oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

i) Out of CNT: 514,835.087 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 514,835.087  oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.922 million

total dealer + customer silver:  323.167 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 289 x 5,000 oz = 1,445,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (1) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 289 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (1)- number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz equals 1,445,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

We gained 1 contracts or an additional 5,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards and as such negated a fiat bonus 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 191,848 CONTRACTS //volume extremely high

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 170,375 CONTRACTS..,,volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 170,375 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 851 million  OZ  121.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.54% ((FEB 24/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.52% to NAV FEB 40/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.54%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.34 TRADING 15.95///DISCOUNT 2.38

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 24/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 933.94 tonnes

*IN LAST 768 TRADING DAYS: 3.52 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 668 TRADING DAYS: A NET 163.55 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

FEB 24.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

363.433 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.65/ and libor 6 month duration 1.67

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+1.69%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.73

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.04

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Garbage news:  India not not strike gold at all

Mises/India

Jayant Bhandari: Did India really just strike gold?

 Section: 

By Jayant Bhandari
Mises India
Saturday, February 22, 2020

Indian news organizations are going crazy about India’s having discovered a major gold mine in Uttar Pradesh. India has claimed to have found a mine containing 3,500 tonnes of gold. This would be, by a massive margin, the biggest gold mine in the world, in a country where there is today only one small gold mine.

This gold would be worth US$185 billion, or more than half the total yearly revenue of the Indian government. No wonder — Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath visited the “mine” recently.

… 

This news is utterly baseless, outrageous propaganda, and shows how clueless Indian journalists and those who prepared the news release in the Geological Survey of India and the Uttar Pradesh Mining Department are.

I have been analysing, investing in, and helping others invest in gold mining companies around the world for 16 years. I have never seen such news on a gold project that has no data, no real work done, and is based on nothing more than arm waving. It cannot even be called a speculation at this stage. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.misesindia.in/2020/02/22/did-india-really-strike-gold/

END

Pam and Russ explain why we had a flash crash in the stock market on Friday

(Pam and Russ Martens)

Pam and Russ Martens: There was a flash crash in the stock market yesterday

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Friday, February 21, 2020

At 10:52 a.m. yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was trading at a level of 29,348, began a bungee-style plunge. By 11:32 a.m. the market landed with a thud at a level of 29,013.

Then the stock market began an equally inexplicable climb, closing the day down just 128 points. This is what is known as a “flash crash,” a sudden plunge in the market with no reliable explanation. No one on Wall Street has yet to offer a convincing explanation for the plunge.

… 

An early attempt to pass it off to worries about the coronavirus was easily dispelled because the news report of rising infections from the virus came much earlier than the plunge in the market.

Our chart research also shows that the plunge was not related to the coronavirus because Procter & Gamble, a component of the Dow which is having serious supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus, didn’t participate in the flash crash in any material way.

Goldman Sachs, however, also a component of the Dow, not only participated in the flash crash but began its own plunge at the market’s open, recovered somewhat, and then began the flash crash at the same time as the Dow — but much more sharply. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/02/there-was-a-flash-crash-in-the-st…

end

A  good commentary: Sean Fieler writes about Trump’s efforts to shake up the Federal Reserve

(Fieler)

Sean Fieler: President Trump’s effort to shake up the Federal Reserve

 Section: 

By Sean Fieler
Daily Caller, Washington, D.C.
Friday, February 21, 2020

https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/21/trump-federal-reserve-fieler/

There is more to President Donald Trump’s monetary policy than political self-interest. If the president simply wanted low rates and to ease the regulatory burden of the Federal Reserve, he could achieve these outcomes without much resistance.

However, Trump also wants to disrupt the Fed’s ruling monetary clique. To this end, he has nominated a series of dissidents to the Fed’s board. With Judy Shelton’s Senate confirmation hanging in the balance, it’s time for Trump to explain why this fight with the Fed is worth the effort.

… 

From his post-election courting of John Allison to 2019’s nominations of Herman Cain and Steve Moore, Trump has sought to elevate an array of critics to the Fed’s board. Allison was never nominated, and both Moore and Cain withdrew from consideration, making Shelton the first of Trump’s dissidents to receive a Senate confirmation hearing. That hearing, which occurred Feb. 13, revealed hardened opposition to Trump’s effort to shake up the Fed.

Shelton’s 90-minute session with 15 senators had the drama and combativeness befitting a Supreme Court confirmation fight. To quote Senate Banking Committee Chair Mike Crapo, there was an “orchestrated, calculated effort” to defeat Shelton. Democratic Montana Sen. Jon Tester attacked Shelton for everything from wanting to privatize the Post Office to quoting the actual text of the legislation governing the Fed. He was not alone. Led by Democratic Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, the well-prepared Democrats on the committee left no doubt of their united opposition to her confirmation.

Shelton’s hearing also made clear that at least three Republican senators remain unconvinced of the need to install dissidents on the Fed’s board. Republican Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby expressed concern over Shelton’s defense of gold’s monetary role. Republican Pennsylvania Sen. Patrick Toomey objected to her use of foreign exchange rates in the formulation of monetary policy. Republican Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy spent the entirety of his allotted five minutes asking Shelton to convince him that she would cut rates to zero and support quantitative easing if need be.

With unified Democratic opposition and Republican equivocation, the time has come for Trump make clear why he does not want to populate the Fed board solely with predictable technocrats. If the president wants to disrupt the dangerous group think at the Fed, he needs to explain why this is important. If Trump is unwilling to publicly advocate for the qualified and collegial Shelton, it is hard to imagine he could find another equally qualified dissident nominee to endure the Senate confirmation process.

The reasons underlying Trump’s concern about the Fed became much easier to articulate following the publication of former Fed governor Bill Dudley’s op-ed in Bloomberg in August 2019. Dudley, who served as vice-chair of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee under Bernanke, Yellen and Powell, wrote that “Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy” and that in this context “Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.” Dudley’s comments were so shocking that Republican North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis publicly called for hearings on the Fed’s potential electoral interference.

Congress never held these hearings, but it will share the blame if the Fed throws its weight around politically as Dudley advised. Not only has Congress permitted the Fed an unlimited budget to advocate for its point of view, but Congress has obstinately refused to prohibit the Fed from lobbying. In 2015, Republican Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul introduced legislation to stop the Fed from lobbying Congress and asked the Fed to disclose how much it had spent on such lobbying in the past. Paul’s legislation went nowhere and his letter to the Fed’s inspector general received no substantive response. As a result, the Fed remains legally free to manipulate both markets and politicians as long as it deems such manipulation necessary to achieve its objectives.

The existence of a self-perpetuating, unaccountable elite busily working against the interests of the American people is exactly why Trump was elected. It’s time the American people heard directly from Trump about the real problem he sees at the Fed as they did from him on the campaign trail in 2016.

—–

end

end

Dan Oliver explains why he thinks they will push gold past 10,000 per oz

(Oliver)

Dan Oliver: The money to push gold past $10,000 has already been issued

 Section: 

8:35p ET Sunday, February 24, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold will reach and pass $10,000 per ounce because the money that will drive the price there has already been issued, Myrmikan Capital founder and managing member Dan Oliver writes in a fascinating study of gold backing for central bank balance sheets through history.

The current gold backing of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, Oliver writes, is less than 6 percent, a small fraction of what it normally has been.

… 

Oliver writes: “At some point, whether it is during the next panic or the following one, the market will discover that much of society’s wealth has become entrapped in non-cash-flowing malinvestments. Tax revenues will plummet, and the assets that our central bank holds will be shown to be near worthless.

“That is when gold will shoot into the multi-thousands of dollars per ounce.

“History allows us to make some projections. The average gold backing for Bank of England liabilities from 1720 to 1900 was 33%. Private banks in the United Kingdom maintained a similar percentage of gold backing during this time.

“This percentage was set more by the market than by policymakers: Until World War I, anyone could deposit gold and demand paper or vice-versa. The composition and size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet require gold to trade above $5,000 to reach one-third backing.

“Looking at American history, Federal Reserve notes were freely exchangable for gold until 1933, and the average gold backing of the Federal Reserve through that time was 54%. To reach that level of backing would currently require a gold price above $8,500. Recall, however, that the above figures occurred when the non-gold assets on central bank balance sheets were nearly all commercial bills. Given the current composition of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the market will demand more backing than one third or even a half.”

Oliver’s study is titled “Gold Past $10,000” and it’s posted at the Myrmikan internet site here:

http://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2020_01_14.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

J Johnson;s commodity express

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/02/20/qe-to-infinity-repurchasing-agreements-of-infinite-print/

QE to Infinity = Repurchasing Agreements of Infinite Print

Posted February 20th, 2020 at 10:20 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

www.georgesellas.com

What is it that we’re seeing here in plain sight yet obstructed by separating storylines with misdirection’s popping up everywhere? Is it possible that “Quantitative Easing” has been hidden behind the term “Repo Market” yet, ultimately benefitting the same players with this newly printed cash being used to bury the bodies, like those of Deutsche Bank and HSBC? Both of these entities are reducing employment and exiting markets after taking hard hits in their ROI’s and yet, the markets keep rising.

      Deutsche Bank is quoted as saying they are shedding “… $100 billion in assets, and taking a massive $7.3 billion hit … part of a major overhaul” with the other central banker’s problem child, HSBC admitting “…Around 30% of our capital is currently allocated to businesses that are delivering returns below their cost of equity, largely in global banking and markets in Europe and the U.S.,”

     These two banks are not getting healthier at all, in fact, they seem to be dying a slow death and their declines should be hurting other major institution’s as well. The point maybe that western central bankers and friends, control (almost all) derivatives and in size. These deciders of print have the right to bail out whoever they want and when they want. They literally have a wide selection of problems to choose from when more cash is needed and yet, no one can find any report of these newly created debt instruments ever being paid off. These same Repurchasing Agreements just keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger (Just like QE … until?).

     We in essence, have a self-assigned organization called the “International Swaps and Derivatives Association” made up of central bankers, with others, associated by trades, and agreements, created to protect and support these over-leveraged sovereign debt assets “by any means possible”. The ISDA committees are the same ones that decide when it can bail itself out, and who else survives by throwing this hot money wherever its needed. They are the “tool” that must declare a default or there is no default – no matter what occurs!

     The idea of hiding this new QE title by calling it a Repo is doing what it was intended to do, hide the events in plain sight. The expectations of QE to Infinity will proceed, as a Repurchasing Agreements of Infinite Print! That is, until something not calculated by the algos surfaces, and with consequences …

Got Silver and Gold?

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson

end

Late this afternoon

Gold Suddenly Hammered By Multi-Billion-Dollar Sale

It looks like our good friend, Benoit Gilson over at the BIS, just got the nod…

… and is “yellow” at 830pm, Basel time:

Gold prices just suddenly plunged on the back of over $3 billion notional of futures being dumped through the market…

Silver was also hit, though not as much…

The orders hit at 1430ET – right as one typically sees margin calls issued – which suggests that perhaps someone just sold whatever they could to cover the collateral calls on their equity market losses.

We also note that JPY weakened at the same time as the gold puke…

For now it’s not helping stocks.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0330/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0382   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.28%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 487.93 POINTS OR 1.79%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 92.41 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.0822

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.36/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.40 and Brent: 56.15

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.49%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.96% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.20%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.45: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO : 1.01

3k Gold at $1682.50 silver at: 18.78   7 am est) SILVER PAST RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 128/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.24

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 56 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.35 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9779 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0603 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.49%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.40% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.84%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1543..

Black Monday: Dow Futures Down 800, Europe Crashes Most In Four Years; Gold, VIX Soars

And just like that the complacency is gone with a bang.

With traders having learned to ignore coronavirus news thanks to manipulated and fabricated new case “data” out of China showing the pandemic was easing, on Monday markets got a very rude wake up call and plunged after South Korea and Italy reported a sudden surge in news cases as two new offshore viral clusters emerged. As Saxo Bank’s Eleanor Creagh writes, with South Korea – a key supply chain center and logistics hub – now on high alert level, the latest spike in overnight cases is intensifying the already ongoing regional supply chain disruptions.

The coronavirus has now killed 2,592 people in China (and like orders of magnitude more) which has reported 77,150 cases, and spread to some 28 other countries and territories, with a death toll outside of China around two dozen. And while equities to date had been resilient in ignoring the data, with contagion picking up outside of China, complacent markets have woken up to the realities of what has clearly been a huge mispricing of risk, and the result is nothing short of a global bloodbath in what is shaping up to be “Red Monday”:

 

As a result, US index futures tumbled alongside stocks in Europe and Asia on Monday,  as authorities struggled to keep the coronavirus from spreading more widely outside China, and to keep investors happy after China failed to impress markets with the raft of stimulus measures announced over the weekend. Safe-havens such as gold surged and U.S. Treasury yields reached their lowest since mid- 2016, as volatility indicators exploded.

After closing just below 29,000 on Friday, Dow futures plunged over 800 points before stabilizing modestly, and on pace for erasing all 2020 gains.

Alongside the crash in the Dow, all three key U.S. index futures were down more than 2%, with S&P 500 Eminis pointing to the biggest drop since August.  Nasdaq 100 future contracts tumbled as much as 3.2%, the most among future contracts for major U.S. indexes, crippling the market-leading tech rally, as anxiety about the spread of coronavirus upended bullish sentiment toward tech shares. And as US futures tumbled, the VIX index surged to its highest since August, rising as high as 23.90.

Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 Index took a beating early, dropping as much as 3.6% on twice its average volume – it has only dropped more than 3% on just two other occasions in the past four years – and was heading for the largest drop since Brexit, as investors fled travel and luxury-goods shares, while an index of credit risk on the region’s high-yield companies soared.

Gripped by a panic that it is emerging as Europe’s own coronavirus supercluster, Italian shares crashed almost 5%, also the biggest drop in nearly four years after a spike in cases of the virus left parts of the country’s industrial north in virtual lockdown. Frankfurt and Paris were both down more than 3% and London’s FTSE dropped 2.5%, meaning at least $350 billion had been wiped off the region’ market value.

Italy’s borrowing costs soared after the government imposed a lockdown on an area of 50,000 people near Milan, with infections in the country rising to about 150 from just a handful a week ago.

Over in Asia, “reality bites” as the spread of coronavirus picks up outside China. Reports of 161 new confirmed cases in South Korea has spurred risk aversion even deeper. South Korea’s fall to the pandemic is intensifying the already ongoing regional supply chain disruptions. Shutdowns and production delays have the capacity to cause unexpected bottlenecks across many production lines even if the virus spread peaks soon. And it is those non-linear supply side effects like production bottlenecks that are the real wildcard in terms of further downgrades to growth, earnings and longer term disruptions. As a result, South Korea’s benchmark dropped 3.9%, leading declines across Asia, after the government declared a high alert. The number of infections jumped to 763 and deaths rose to seven.

Elsewhere, in Asia, Australia’s benchmark index slid 2.25% and New Zealand fell about 1.8%. China’s blue-chip CSI300 index closed down 0.4%. That left MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan at its lowest since early February. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.

Iran, which announced its first infections last week, said it had confirmed 43 cases and eight deaths, with most of the infections in the holy city of Qom. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Turkey and Afghanistan imposed travel and immigration restrictions on the Islamic Republic.

“There is lots of bad news on the coronavirus front with the total number of new cases still rising,” AMP chief economist Shane Oliver wrote in a note. “Of course, there is much uncertainty about the case data. New cases outside China still look to be trending up.”

As panicked investors (why were they not selling for the past month one will never know) dumped risk assets, they flooded into safe havens, and as a result the yield on 10-year Treasuries sank to its lowest since 2016, plunging to near all time lows, and sliding below the 1.40% level which according to BofA indicated a recessionary “tipping point.” The 30-year Treasury touched a record low at 1.84% and German yields dropped to -0.475%, their lowest in more than four months

“Everybody sees that this could be another leg down for the economy, and we were already in quite a fragile state to begin with,” said Rabobank’s head of macro strategy, Elwin de Groot. “It could be another step toward a recession in more countries.”

Meanwhile, that other safe haven, gold, approached $1,700, while Brent crude oil tumbled almost 4%.

As noted over the weekend, the Monday selling panic was triggered by multiple outbreaks of the epidemic that’s now spread to more than 30 countries, with South Korea reporting a jump in infections and Italy locking down an area of 50,000 people near Milan.

Finance chiefs and central bankers from the largest economies warned this weekend that they saw the virus bringing downside risks to global growth; unfortunately there is nothing they can print to stop the virus from spreading, and no tax cuts will prevent the collapse of critical global supply chains.

Meanwhile, as investors bet central banks would step in with policy stimulus to support economic growth, U.S. fed fund futures signaled more rate cuts later this year and a near 20% chance of a cut next month. The yen rallied – regaining its status as a risk-off safe haven – as did the US dollar amid the scramble for safety. Scandinavian currencies and the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell; Norway’s krone dropped against all Group-of-10 peers as oil prices took a new hit, while the Aussie slumped after South Korea raised its infectious-disease alert level to the highest available, and G-20 officials cited downside risks to global growth from the coronavirus. Korea’s won was last down 1% at 1,219.06 after falling to its weakest since August 2019. Emerging-market currencies from Mexico’s peso and Turkey’s lira to Poland’s zloty and Russia’s rouble were in the red.

In commodity markets, Brent crude fell 3.5%, or $2.1, to $56.35 a barrel. U.S. crude dropped 3%, or $1.64, to $51.74 a barrel. Among the main industrial metals, copper fell 1.4% and zinc was down 2.5%.

Expected data include Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook. HP Inc, Intuit and Shake Shack are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 2.7% to 3,249.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 3.5% to 413.20
  • MXAP down 1.3% to 164.30
  • MXAPJ down 2.2% to 533.03
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 23,386.74
  • Topix down 0.03% to 1,674.00
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 26,820.88
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,031.23
  • Sensex down 1.9% to 40,399.19
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.3% to 6,978.28
  • Kospi down 3.9% to 2,079.04
  • German 10Y yield fell 6.6 bps to -0.497%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0825
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 0.746%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.5 bps to 0.201%
  • Brent futures down 3.6% to $56.42/bbl
  • Gold spot up 2.6% to $1,686.73
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 99.54

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Italy, now the virus’s epicenter on the continent, is studying measures to support the local economy
  • Infections spiked again in South Korea and Iran, while Afghanistan, Bahrain and Kuwait all reported their first cases
  • President Xi Jinping urged China to “spare no effort” to contain the coronavirus outbreak in Beijing, as the nation’s top legislature postponed its annual legislative session in the capital to help check the disease’s spread
  • The U.S. will sign military deals worth more than $3 billion with India on Tuesday, President Donald Trump said at the start of a two-day state visit to the South Asian nation
  • The victory by hard-liners in Iran’s election puts parliament back in the hands of people determined to turn the clock back on reconciliation with the West
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union is trying to pick up the pieces after a state election defeat in Hamburg drove home public alarm over divisions in Germany’s leading party

Asian equities traded with steep losses across the board following Wall Street’s decline on Friday, amid the rapid rise in the number of coronavirus cases outside China – which prompted the Dow to post its worst daily performance since February 7th, S&P recorded its largest one-day loss since late-January, whilst the Nasdaq notched its worst session since January 27th. Furthermore, weekend development caused US equity futures to open the week with notable downside, with S&P Mar’20 dipping below 3300, Nasdaq Mar’20 declining over 1.5% and DJ Mar’20 slumping over 300 points. ASX 200 (-2.3%) was pressured by its large-cap financial stocks and some mining stocks as yields and base metal prices fell, instigating a breach below the key 7000 mark in the index. South Korea’s KOSPI (-3.8%) opened with detrimental losses following the spike in the number of cases in the country alongside seven confirmed deaths and the country’s alert level raised to the “highest” over the weekend, resulting in the index dipping below the 2100 psychological level. Furthermore, Samsung Electronics’ shares slid over 3% after the Co. shut its operations plant in Gumi City in South Korea after an employee was reported to be infected with the COVID-19 virus. As a reminder, Japanese markets were shut as participants observe Emperor’s Birthday holiday. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) joined the stock rout, with the former heavily pressured by its large-cap energy names as prices in the complex plumb the depths. Meanwhile, Mainland was initially resilient in comparison amid further pledges by China to support impacts of the virus, with President Xi over the weekend stating that the government will step up policy support to help achieve economic and social development targets for 2020. Conversely, Shenzhen Comp. (+1.3%) fared better after Guangdong, the province in which the tech hub resides in, lowered its coronavirus response level from the first level to the second level, subsequently, Shenzhen traffic saw an uptick today. Finally, UST Mar’20 futures and Bund Mar’20 futures retained an underlying bid overnight amid the risk aversion in the market.

Top Asian News

  • S.Korea Moon Calls for Extra Budget Review Amid Virus Spread
  • Trump Says U.S. To Sign $3 Billion in Defense Deals With India
  • China Asks Residents Not to Travel to U.S., Ministry Says
  • Goldman Among Dissenters on Israeli Rates as Price Declines Near

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -3.7%) have kicked the week off with substantial losses as the lack of containment of the coronavirus grips investor sentiment. Over the weekend, despite efforts by Chinese authorities to assuage concerns over the domestic fallout of the virus, focus instead has been on the pick-up in reported cases external to China. The case count in South Korea has continued to rise with Yonhap’s latest tally amounting to 833 infected, whilst closer to home, fears in Europe have been elevated by Italy reporting 152 cases and a third death from COVID-19; FTSE MIB (-4.7%). Momentum for selling has continued since the cash open with the DAX cash moving ever closer to 13,000 to the downside, whilst futures Stateside paint an equally sobering picture with the e-mini S&P lower by 94 points thus far. From a sectoral basis, airline names stand out as a notable laggard given the travel implications from the increasing case count with easyJet (-12.5%), RyanAir (-10.6%), Tui (-8.8%), Air France (-10%), Deutsche Lufthansa (-6.7%) all showing heavy losses. Elsewhere, the luxury space continues to be a prime target for sellers with Swatch (-5.3%), Richemont (-5.9%), LVMH (-5.3%) all suffering, whilst ongoing concerns over car production has weighed on auto/autoparts manufacturers (BMW -4.7%, Daimler -5.4%, Continental -4.6%, Volkswagen -4.9%) and exacerbated selling pressure for the DAX (-3.8%). In-fitting with price action in the respective complexes, energy and material names are also feeling the squeeze in early European trade, whilst chip manufacturers/IT names are also getting sold aggressively as the e-mini NASDAQ (-3.3%), lags its peers ahead of the Wall Street open.

Top European News

  • European Stocks Fall Most Since 2016 After Luxury Sinks on Virus
  • Merkel’s Party Seeks Way Out of Crisis After Hamburg Failure
  • German Business Sentiment Holds Up Against Virus Concerns
  • Barclays CEO Staley Expects to Leave by End of 2021, FT Says

In FX, although Japan’s market holiday may be crimping volumes and supply, heightened concerns about the spread and impact of China’s coronavirus are helping the Yen forge gains vs an otherwise broadly bid Dollar around 111.50 compared to recent lows below 112.00. However, Gold is really shining as a safe-haven beacon and outperforming after accelerating towards Usd1700/oz and setting a fresh multi-year peak around Usd1689.30, with technicians now eyeing a Usd1715 Fib if the psychological barrier is breached.

  • USD – As noted above, the Greenback is also benefiting from risk-off flows and the DXY has bounced further from Friday’s post-US preliminary PMI base to reclaim 99.500+ status as a result, even though Treasury yields are collapsing and the curve is significantly flatter. Nevertheless, the index remains some distance from last week’s 2020 best and the elusive 100.00 mark within a 99.405-657 range.
  • NOK/CAD/NZD/AUD – The clear G10 laggards, as sharp declines in crude prices compound Chinese nCoV losses for the Norwegian Crown and Loonie, while the Kiwi and Aussie are undermined by their closer geographical location and economic ties to China. Eur/Nok is hovering near 10.1500, Usd/Cad is a whisker shy of 1.3300, with Nzd/Usd struggling to keep hold of 0.6300 and Aud/Usd unable to retain 0.6600 as the YUAN remains sub-7.0000.
  • SEK/GBP/EUR/CHF – Also suffering from the China health outbreak, Eur/Sek trades north of 10.5500 and Cable is struggling to stay in touch with 1.2900 ahead of UK-EU trade talks, while Eur/Gbp is at the upper end of 0.8345-93 parameters after a better than expected German Ifo survey that has helped the single currency stave off attempts to test support/underlying bids at 1.0800. Meanwhile, the Franc is still somewhat betwixt and between, with Usd/Chf straddling 0.9800 and Eur/Chf dangling just above 1.0600 after another blow for Germany’s CDU party at the Hamburg election.
  • EM – Widespread and steep declines in many cases vs the Usd, with the Krw extending losses for obvious reasons and Rub also feeling the heat as Brent drops over Usd2/brl, while the Try hardly derived any traction from an improvement in Turkish manufacturing confidence given the spread of COVID-19 and ongoing geopolitical issues. Last but not least, the Zar is on the defensive ahead of Wednesday’s SA budget and Mexican Peso even more cautious before mid-February inflation metrics.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are posting significant losses at present, in-line with the general risk sentiment as they are both down by circa USD 2.0/bbl. Focus for the crude market is firmly fixated on the demand-side, as the coronavirus’ spread, particularly its marked jump in Italy over the weekend, is heavily impacting sentiment in the auto and travel sector; and as such is increasing concerns of a marked demand impact outside of China as well. Moving to the supply side, where Friday’s reports of Saudi and others looking for a circa 300k BPD addition to production cuts if Russia does not come on-board, which would be instead of the 600k BPD cut the JTC has recommended, did add to the downward price pressures; subsequently, these remarks have been denied by Saudi. Looking ahead, the OPEC+ meeting is now in theory just a matter of days away and focus remains heavily on the official stance from Russia as to whether they will support additional cuts at all, if so to what extent. Turning to metals, where spot gold has galloped ahead overnight with a new YTD high at USD 1689.29/oz on the mass FTQ we are experiencing today – technically, resistance inevitably lies at the psychological USD 1700/oz mark before a fib at USD 1715/oz. Elsewhere, basemetals are firmly in negative territory on the aforementioned sell off and departure from risky-assets; particularly as the virus’ spread outside of China is exacerbating demand concerns for such commodities.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.2, prior -0.4
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 0, prior -0.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The news-flow on the COVID-19 Coronavirus has taken a decidedly more negative tone over the last two to three days and we are starting the week with a sizeable risk-off move. The accumulation of reported cases and fatalities in China continue to grew at a slower pace but it’s the spread elsewhere that’s becoming a major worry. Italy has effectively put 50,000 citizens on lockdown with people in several towns in Lombardy and Veneto not able to travel without special permission. Italy now has 157 confirmed cases and 3 deaths and is now the 4th worst country in terms of infections. On Friday morning Italy only had 3 confirmed cases so you can see why concerns are dramatically rising. Last night Austria stopped all trains in and out of Italy and the Italian government has also canceled the Venice Carnival and other mass gathering events. With these sort of headlines markets are going to be very wary today and the next few days are going to be crucial for Italy and Europe to see whether the number of cases continues to rise at a growing rate. Elsewhere, South Korea now has 763 confirmed cases which is up dramatically from 30 a week ago. South Korea is ramping up its virus screening efforts in the city of Daegu, where the majority of cases are located, as it has identified 37,000 people in the city with symptoms of the virus. South Korea also announced yesterday that it is postponing the re-opening of schools after a winter break, scheduled for next Monday, and are restricting military personnel from leaving their base or facility. However, on a slightly better note China’s state run CCTV reported that Guangdong, which has the most confirmed infections after Hubei, has become the 6th Chinese province to lower its coronavirus emergency response level from the highest level. Other provinces are Gansu, Liaoning, Guizhou, Shanxi and Yunnan. Currently, there are 77,150 confirmed cases in China with the death toll at 2,592.

The flip side to the raised concerns is that stimulus talk will grow. The Seoul Shinmun newspaper is reporting that the Democratic Party of Korea has assessed that the nation will need more than KRW 10tn ($8.3bn) in extra budget funding to support the economy and provide aid for losses related to the outbreak. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated that the Chinese authorities will step up policy adjustments to achieve the nation’s economic and social goals while fighting the virus outbreak. Bloomberg has also reported overnight that China’s central and local governments are loosening the criteria for factories to resume operations. So it will be crucial to look at the virus spread data as China returns to work. Our Chinese economists have published their latest real-time series of economic indicators overnight (including our latest shipping data). Activity has started to recover but clearly risks remain. See the report here.

Risk off has taken hold in Asia this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.36%), Shanghai Comp (-0.37%) and Kospi (-3.23%) all down alongside most indices in the region. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. As for fx, the Bloomberg dollar index is up +0.30% this morning. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -1.39% while yields on 10y USTs are down -4.4bps to 1.472%. Spot gold prices are up +1.15% and crude oil prices are down -2.46% overnight.

Coronavirus concerns also dominated the G-20 weekend meeting. Interestingly France’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Italy’s Ignazio Visco both said on the sidelines that the euro area governments must shoulder most of the burden for rebooting economies if the coronavirus has a deeper impact on growth. Mr. Visco added that the world economy has two quarters to bounce back from the coronavirus hit before policy makers should unleash coordinated fiscal stimulus.

The other major news over the weekend was from Nevada where Bernie Sanders is on course to comprehensively win the latest Democratic primary. The Senator from Vermont has now won the popular vote in each of the first three states – the first candidate to ever do so for either major party – and now looks to be in a very strong position as the race accelerates into Super Tuesday next week. Former Vice President Biden, rebounded from his first two disappointing finishes, and is currently 2nd at 21.0%. The leader in delegates coming into the night, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, is on track for 3rd place at 13.7%. As the other 12% of the vote comes in, he needs to climb over the 15% threshold to be eligible to receive any proportional delegates from the state. Senator Elizabeth Warren is currently 4th with 9.6%, however neither she nor any other major candidates have indicated they are going to drop out of the race so far. With a debate tomorrow ahead of the South Carolina primary, watch for the more moderate-left candidates to attack Sanders and try and stall his momentum, something that did not happen last week as most of the focus of the last debate was on newcomer Mayor Bloomberg, who was not on the ballot in Nevada. The odds on a comeback by the field might be slimming though. Since 1972, only one candidate – President Bill Clinton – has received the Democratic nomination after failing to secure a primary victory in one of the first 3 states. It still feels the market is way too relaxed about the US election later this year.

Staying with politics, in Germany we had elections in the state of Hamburg yesterday where Merkel’s CDU posted its worst result post WWII (with 11.2% of the vote) while the Greens (24.8%) almost doubled their support. The city-state’s governing Social Democratic Party secured a clear victory with about 38.6%, even as its support eroded from 45.6% five years ago. Overall the CDU’s weak performance is likely to have bearing on the leadership crisis in the party. So watch this space.

Moving on now to look at the week ahead before we review last week in markets. In this final week of February, the virus development outside of China will take center stage and will drive markets. Outside of this, politics will be a big focus after Sanders emphatic victory in Nevada. We have the final Democratic presidential debate in South Carolina tomorrow before the primary there on Saturday and Super Tuesday a week after the debate. As for data, a second look at Q4 GDP in the US as well as PCE inflation, regional manufacturing reports and sentiment indicators are all due, while in Europe Germany’s IFO survey is expected.

Given the virus influenced the weak flash US PMI on Friday, albeit surprisingly in the services not the manufacturing component, a lot of attention will be on the various regional surveys due out this week including the Dallas Fed today, Richmond Fed on Tuesday, Kansas Fed on Thursday before the Chicago PMI on Friday. Sentiment indicators in the form of February consumer confidence on tomorrow and the University of Michigan survey on Friday will also be closely followed, as will the hard data in the form of preliminary January durable and capital goods orders on Thursday.

Here in Europe we have the February IFO survey out of Germany today. It’s one of the best measures of contemporaneous growth and will be closely watched in light of the mixed message given out by the European PMIs on Friday. The current forecast is for a slight decline in both the expectations and current assessment components. Germany’s final Q4 GDP revisions (0.0% expected) are then due tomorrow with the economy likely to flirt with a technical recession over the winter. We’ll also get a first look at inflation for February across Europe with preliminary readings due in Spain on Thursday and France, Germany, Italy and the Euro Area on Friday. Confidence indicators for the Euro Area are also due out on Thursday. Elsewhere, it’s a quiet week ahead for data out of the UK.

Meanwhile it’s worth keeping an eye on some of the data out of Asia this week. While they won’t reveal the full impact of the slowing in Chinese growth due to the coronavirus, it may reveal the early effects. Of note is January trade data out of Hong Kong tomorrow, January industrial production in Japan on Thursday and Australian private capex and Thailand trade data.

Finally earnings take a back seat with just 44 S&P 500 companies due to report including Berkshire Hathaway and Macy’s. Our equity strategists last week published a scorecard on the global earnings season last week which you can view here.

Recapping last week now. It ended with markets once again gripped by fears surrounding the coronavirus’s effect on the global economy, as data started to show some adverse effects. The S&P 500 finished the week -1.25% lower (-1.05% Friday), and ended with only the second back to back daily loss of the year.

Semiconductors (-2.99% Friday) and technology (-2.24% Friday) stocks were the largest decliners in the US with the Nasdaq declining -1.59% on the week (-1.79% Friday). The STOXX 600 followed suit, falling -0.57% on the week (-0.49% Friday), even as PMI data on Friday was better than expected across the Eurozone. The Nikkei fell -1.27% over the week (-0.39% Friday), the Hang Seng was down -1.82% (-1.09% Friday) and the KOSPI fell -3.60% (-1.49% Friday) as the spread of coronavirus and deaths rose in the nations neighboring China. Chinese equities themselves were up over +4% on the week, as the promise of fiscal and monetary stimulus supported stocks.

Gold continued to rise, being +1.48% higher on Friday and up +3.75% over the week, as havens were chased in the risk off mood. Gold had the best week since August, as it finished at over $1643/oz. US 30-year Treasury yields fell to a record low at 1.914% and ten-year treasuries fell -4.7bps to 1.468%, just off the September lows, but not quite down to the 2016 all time lows of c.1.35%. 10 year bund yields rose +1.3 bps on Friday (but -3bps on the week) to -0.43% as top-line PMI data was better than expected. The euro fell to near 3 year lows mid-week before bouncing slightly higher on Friday.

Last Friday’s flash European and US PMI data releases were highly anticipated with one consistent theme being weakness linked to the coronavirus outbreak coming through in lesser demand across travel and tourism, as well as falling exports, and supply chain disruptions.

In Europe, Flash Eurozone PMIs showed an expansion at 51.6, 0.3 better than last month. This was the fastest growth in 6 months. However across the Eurozone, suppliers expressed that delays for inputs was the most widespread since December 2018 – in many cases blaming supply chain issues on the coronavirus outbreak.

PMIs looked good on the surface as the German index showed business activity contracting less than feared, 47.8 compared to the estimated 44.8. However, expectations for output over the next 12 months fell, manufacturers are still cutting jobs, and hiring in services slowed. There was also indications that a distortion caused largely by supply chain disruptions, may have positively skewed the final reading.

The UK’s PMI reading showed manufacturing production growth rising to its strongest since April, helping to offset a slight loss of momentum in the service economy, the composite showed an expanding 53.3 reading matching last month’s release. Survey respondents noted that the clarity surrounding politics since the general election has manifested into higher business activity and greater willingness to spend among clients. However, service providers also reported that the coronavirus outbreak weighed on overseas bookings and resulted in the cancellation of some orders from clients in Asia.

The US flash PMI readings showed business activity contracting for the first time since 2013, printing at 49.6, falling from 53.3. This drop increased worries that the coronavirus outbreak was affecting supply chains and the economy more broadly than originally thought. Service providers (49.4 vs 53.4 expected) were among the most responsible for the low print, with new orders registering the first contraction in the data going back to 2009. Manufacturing (50.8 vs 51.5 expected) held up better than services which is surprising if Coronavirus supply chain hits were the main cause of weakness. Overall the flash numbers created as many questions as they did answers.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.28%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 487,93 POINTS OR 1.79%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 92.41 POINTS OR 0.39%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7.0330 /Oil DOWN TO 51.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.15 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0330 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0384 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/SATURDAY AFTERNOON

We have two clusters which account for 80% of the confirmed cases:

  1. the Church
  2. the psychiatric ward

they have not put the two together yet.

It started with one super spreader patient no 31 who attended church services at this special cult church.  How the psychiatric ward at the hospital got so many infections remains a mystery for now.  The two original deaths came from the hospital psychiatric  ward.

zerohedge)

Most Patients In South Korean Psychiatric Ward Infected With Coronavirus

As the number of confirmed coronavirus infections in South Korea goes parabolic, the latest development in the Pacific Rim nation is right out of Arkham Asylum.

But first, the big picture: South Korea reported 229 new confirmed cases on Saturday, as the number of infections more than doubled in a day to 433, an eightfold jump in just four days. As the chart below shows, the number of new cases in South Korea has now doubled each day for the past 4 days, a true exponential increase.

The country’s prime minister, Chung Sye-kyun, called the situation “grave,” according to The Korea Times, while the country’s Vice Health and Welfare Minister Kim Kang-lip told reporters that “The situation is entering a new phase.” But the high number of confirmed cases is also because the country’s medical industry has high diagnostic capability, according to experts; with the implication that the real number of Chinese cases is orders of magnitude higher than officially disclosed.

While the current period is still “early stage” the government is cautiously confident that the spread of the novel coronavirus could be contained surrounding the Daegu area, Kim added, although that particular cruise ship has now officially sailed.

Indeed Daegu, South Korea’s fourth-largest city, is where the initial cluster of cases of emerged; it has since been designated a “special management zone.” The central government is channeling medical support to the zone with more staff, hospital beds and equipment. In Daegu, more than half of South Korea’s cases have been among members of a secretive religious sect who often crowd together in worship, and their relatives or contacts. Another 111 are patients or staff members at the Daenam Hospital in Cheongdo, where the two South Koreans who have died of the virus had been admitted.

It gets worse: more than 1,250 members of the sect, the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, have reported potential symptoms, and officials are still trying to locate 700 members so they can be screened. “In accordance with law and principles, the government will sternly deal with acts that interfere with quarantine efforts, illegal hoarding of medical goods and acts that spark uneasiness through massive rallies,” Chung said, pointing out just how convenient the coronavirus will be when government seek to squash all future protests.

It gets even worse: Samsung, the world’s biggest smartphone maker, shut down a factory after a worker tested positive. The factory, located in the city of Gumi, about an hour north of Cheongdo, is expected to resume operations on Monday morning, Samsung said. But the floor of the factory where the patient has worked will be closed until Tuesday morning, it said. We wonder how long until it truly reopens.

But the scariest development in the past 24 hours is that almost all patients at a psychiatric ward of a South Korean hospital tested positive for the coronaviruswith local reports saying members of the above mentioned Shincheonji Church of Jesus sect which has rapidly emerged as the single biggest cluster of new S. Korean cases, had attended a funeral in the same complex.

South Korea’s two confirmed deaths from the virus were also from the Daenam Hospital in Cheongdo hospital’s mental health division, Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Saturday. Both patients had been moved out of the psychiatric ward for medical treatment before their deaths, Vice Health and Welfare Minister Kim Kang-lip said at a briefing.

In other words, of the total 443 confirmed cases, more than half, or  231 were linked to Daegu, sectwhile at least 111 – including four nurses – were from the psychiatric ward of the hospital in Cheongdo County. The two clusters account for almost 80% of the confirmed cases.

Cheongdo, famous for its bull-fighting competition, is a rural town near Daegu. The funeral of the brother of the Shincheonji’s leader took place earlier this month in Cheongdo, and health officials are examining ties between the church and the hospital. Local media reports say the funeral was held in the building that houses the psychiatric ward.

According to Bloomberg, Shincheonji, formally known as Church of Jesus, the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony, said on its website that it’s trying to list attendees of the funeral and denied its Chinese followers were part of the crowd at the ceremony. Hundreds are still unaccounted for.

Earlier this week, the country’s disease-control center said an inpatient who died after suffering for a long time with chronic pneumonia was confirmed only after his death to have been infected with the coronavirus. The 63-year-old man had been at the hospital’s mental health unit since late 2017, the KBS broadcaster reported.  The second fatality was a patient from the same ward, identified only as a woman born in 1965. She died shortly after being transferred to another hospital in Busan because of a lack of beds, the center said.

As the pandemic is now set to claim more new cases in South Korea than in China, where Beijing has made a total mockery of data reporting, we expect many more tragic fatalities as one government after another seeks to mitigate the risk posed by the covid pandemic – perhaps in hopes that just like stock market crashes, central banks can make this whole thing just go away – in order to avoid a social panic, when in cases like this letting people know the truth instead of having the government decide for them what is best, is the best strategy… and is why it will never happen.

END
SOUTH KOREA/ITALY/ISRAEL/CHINA/ IRAN//THE GLOBE/SUNDAY MORNING/UPDATE
Three areas witness a huge increase in deaths and cases:
1. South Korea
2 Italy
3. Iran
Israel has isolated 200 individuals and are doing everything possible to control an outbreak
(zerohedge)

Coronavirus Panic Goes Global: S.Korea Warns Of “Watershed Moment” As Italy Confirms 3rd Death, Cancels Venice Carnival: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Italy confirms 3rd death
  • 4 more cases confirmed in UK
  • 200 Israelis quarantined
  • Japan confirms more cases
  • Japanese Emperor expresses hope for Tokyo Games
  • Italy cancels last 2 days of carnivale in Venice as cases soar above 100
  • SK total cases above 600, rivals ‘Diamond Princess’ for biggest outbreak outside China
  • Trump says US has everything ‘under control’ as he asks Congress for more money
  • EU’s Gentiloni says he has ‘full confidence’ In Italian health officials
  • Turkey, Pakistan close borders with Iran as confirmed cases soar
  • Global Times says virus may not have originated at Hunan seafood market
  • Axios reports shortages of 150 essential drugs likely.

* * *

Update (1230ET): The number of new coronavirus cases in Japan has risen to 135, while 57 new ‘Diamond Princess’ cases have been confirmed days after hundreds were released from a two-week quarantine. As we mentioned earlier, a third passenger has also died, according to Japan’s NHK.

One of the cases, according to the Japan Times, is a woman who was reportedly let off the cruise ship as the quarantine ended. Of course, every expert in the world including the CDC warned Japan that this would happen since health officials didn’t seem to have  much of an after-care plan. Alas, here we are.

Three boys who have been confirmed to be infected with the virus are now Japan’s youngest cases. They include a preschooler in Saitama and two brothers in a Hokkaido elementary school. It’s the first time people under the age of 10 have caught the virus in Japan. While the younger boy had recently traveled to Wuhan with his father, authorities have no explanation for how the two brothers in Hokkaido became infected.

Emperor Naruhito cancelled a public event on Sunday, and also reportedly expressed some alarm about the virus and the Tokyo Olympics. Naruhito, who turned 60 on Sunday, ascended to the throne last spring after his father became the first Japanese emperor in 2 centuries to abdicate.

He said he was looking forward to this summer’s games, adding that the ’64 Tokyo games were a special memory in his childhood, Reuters reports.

“This new coronavirus is a concern. I would like to send my sympathies to those who are infected and their families,” he said.

“At the same time, my thoughts are with the efforts of those who are treating them and working hard to prevent the spread of the infection. I hope their efforts will bear fruit soon.”

Tokyo will host the Summer Olympics from July 24 for the second time, and Naruhito said the first Tokyo games, held in October 1964 when he was four years old, were one of the highlights of his childhood.

The Tokyo Olympics are the major barometer right now. If they get cancelled, then the world will know: This outbreak is out of control.

* * *

Update (1220ET): Let’s check in with one country that we neglected to mention earlier in today’s roundup of outbreak-related news.

Haaertz reports that 200 Israelis are under quarantine after nine Korean tourists tested positive for the virus following a return trip from Israel. Yesterday, Tel Aviv issued travel warnings for South Korea and Japan (they’ve also barred foreigners who’ve recently been to either country from entering Israel).

Those under quarantine include people who came into contact with the Koreans.

* * *

Update (1145ET): Italian authorities have confirmed a third coronavirus-linked death in northern Italy. Officials confirmed that 50,000 remain under lockdown across 12 villages in the north.

As a reminder, Italy’s first cases surfaced in early February, when a Chinese couple on vacation in Rome fell ill. Now, priests celebrating mass on Sunday across Italy have been ordered by the bishops to make a few changes to procedure, for safety’s sake.

Bishops in several dioceses in northern Italy issued directives that holy water fonts be kept empty, that communion wafers be placed in the hands of the faithful and not directly into their mouths by priests celebrating Mass and that congregants refrain from shaking hands or exchanging kisses during the symbolic Sign of the Peace ritual.

* * *

Update (1130ET): The BBC reports that four of the 32 British passengers aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’ cruise ship that have been taken to the quarantine at Arrowe Park have tested positive for the virus, the UK’s Chief Medical Officer said.

This brings the UK’s total case number to 13.

* * *

Bernie Sanders has won the Nevada caucus, and coronavirus outbreaks are taking root in a handful of countries outside China, threatening a genuine pandemic and threatening to pop the market’s dismissive bubble by proving unequivocally that this is not ‘just another flu’.

We’re starting our Sunday roundup with South Korea which, along with Italy and Japan, is one of a handful of countries outside China that is genuinely in crisis. On Sunday, the South Korean government raised the national threat level to “red alert”, its highest threat level (like, North Korean troops on the move to Seoul-level) after 169 new cases were confirmed on Sunday, raising the national toll total to 602.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in warned on Sunday that the outbreak had reached a “critical watershed” moment, and that “the next few days will be a very important critical moment.” He then asked health authorities to take “unprecedented, powerful” steps to contain the virus – and it appears they’re already starting to do just that, as the FT reports.

As one can see from this chart, the bulk of new cases confirmed over the weekend have been in the ex-China, ex-Diamond Princess category:

The Italian government is taking similar steps after confirming 133 cases, up from just three less than 72 hours ago. In that time, Italy has become host to the largest coronavirus outbreak outside Asia.

As Rome scrambles to contain the outbreak, authorities on Sunday banned all public gatherings, including Venice’s famed carnival celebrations that honor the beginning of Lent. The last two days of the carnival have been cancelled as fashion week in Milan was also cancelled, forcing the cancellation of the famed Giorgio Armani show, which had been scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

Carnivale drew tens of thousands of revelers to the region which unfortunately is home to one of several clusters of outbreaks in Northern Italy.

While Italy’s impoverished south has so far done little to prepare for the outbreak, in the north, museums, schools, universities and other public venues will be closed in Venice, as well as the rest of the Veneto region, through March 1.

According to ABC, three patients in Venice have tested positive for the COVID-19 virus, all of them in their late 80s and who are hospitalized in critical condition.

Most of Italy’s cases are clustered in the north, where the most extreme lockdowns are being implemented. 25 cases have been isolated in Veneto, and the rest in Lombardy, with authorities still unable to track down the source of the virus. The first case was discovered last week when an Italian man in Codogno in his late 30s became seriously ill.

In Turin, the biggest and most economically vital city of the Piedmont region, three cases have now been diagnosed, and a family of three are being tested, according to authorities.

“The health officials haven’t been yet able to pinpoint Patient Zero,”Angelo Borrelli, head of the national Civil Protection agency, told reporters in Rome.

Initially, authorities believed this man was infected by an Italian friend with whom he had recently dined, and who also had just returned from Shanghai.  When the friend tested negative for the virus, attention turned to several Chinese who live in town and who frequent the same restaurant. Regional Gov. Attilio Fontana said they tested negative, too.

And they’re still not sure if he’s ‘patient zero’.

Across Italy, millions of Italians are preparing to be on lockdown for weeks, as many are hoarding essential supplies.

News from Italy@newsfromitaly

If legitimate, some signs of panic buying in Milan’s supermarkets. And new travel attire too! https://twitter.com/stef_barba/status/1231606551447777280 

ste@stef_barba

Live from Milan! #coronavirusitalla #Coronavirus
#COVID19italia

View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter

With 90 confirmed cases in Lombardy, the region has closed schools and universities, sporting events, other public events – and even catholic mass.

More bad news out of Hubei followed on Sunday, as Wuhan’s Union Jiangbei Hospital confirmed the death of a 29-year-old doctor.  That’s the second death of a young doctor in Hubei in a matter of days (another doctor died late last week). Their deaths have stirred up memories of Dr. Li, a martyr of the virus and symbol of Beijing’s missteps.

As we noted last night, Hubei reported ~600 new cases on Saturday but nobody really believes the Chinese numbers anymore.

As Beijing tries to convince the world and its population that everything is under control, European Commission finance chief Paolo Gentiloni said the EU recently delivered 25 tonnes of protective equipment to China to help it contain the outbreak.

Looking inward, Gentiloni warned there is “no need to panic” about the outbreak in Italy, even though 2 people have died and more than 100 have been confirmed to be infected. “The EU has full confidence in the Italian authorities and the decisions they are taking,” he said.

“We share concern for possible contagion, but there is no need to panic.”

We suspect he will soon eat those words.

As the Trump administration confronts the unavoidable reality that it badly miscalculated by bringing those 14 sick passengers on the evacuation flight with ~300 seemingly healthy Americans from the Diamond Princess, Japanese officials confirmed on Sunday the third death among the ~2,600 passengers who traveled on the ship (along with another 1,000+ crew).

The ‘Diamond Princes’ remains the largest outbreak outside mainland China – but South Korea has probably already surpassed it, health authorities just haven’t been able to test sick patients fast enough.

Meanwhile, President Trump assured the public that the virus is “under control” in the US just as he reportedly asked Congress to authorize federal funds to combat the virus as the CDC warns only three states are truly prepared. This after 25 Senate Dems sent him a letter demanding that he act – a superficial political ploy – some are worried that the $1 billion Trump is asking for is ‘too small’. Seems to us that it makes sense to start small, then increase the ask as the situation evolves.

Elsewhere in the US, reports on Sunday claimed 325 People in Michigan were being monitored, all of whom had recently been to mainland China, according to local health authorities.

Nearly all of South Korea’s coronavirus cases have been linked to two clusters at a church in southern city of Daegu and a nearby hospital in Cheongdo County – though cases have popped up seemingly without explanation, a phenomenon that is unnerving health officials around the world (Japan has faced a similar problem).

Yonhap reports scenes familiar to those who watched Wuhan’s initial virus response: Exhausted health-care workers sleeping on benches outside hospitals.

The South Korean government has declared ‘special management zones’ in both areas – a kind of voluntary lockdown order. From what observers can tell, it seems to be working, because Daegu’s streets are abandoned, according to seemingly every report.

As the public searches for somebody to blame for the outbreak, the public fury appears to be pointed at the cult-like church where a ‘super-spreader member who thought she just had a bad cold infected dozens of others, kicking of the outbreak in earnest.

Rumors and reports are circulating claiming the church isn’t cooperating with the South Korean government.

DJ Jino@jinoreacts

Shincheonji cult is the epicenter of the breakout in Korea. The church is not cooperating and is not giving the list of members who were in Daegu.

9,336 members were tested and 1,261 see suspected if carrying the virus. This cult needs to be shutdown.https://news.v.daum.net/v/20200222104226282 

[속보] 신천지 대구교회 9천336명 조사 완료..1천261명 “증상 의심”

(끝) [이 시각 많이 본 기사] <저작권자(c) 연합뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지>

news.v.daum.net

But nowhere outside of Hubei is the outbreak worse than in Iran. The country’s utter lack of health-care resources combined with a bitter and oppressive regime already struggling with an US-manufactured economic crisis and a leadership that just accidentally killed ~200 innocent people, including dozens of students, has left it completely vulnerable.

Alarmed by their neighbors’ outbreak, Turkey and Pakistan have closed their borders with Iran in an effort to stop the spread.

In just a matter of days, the death toll in Iran has climbed to 8 on Sunday. Assuming a mortality rate of 2%, that would imply Iran had ~400 cases one month ago when these patients were likely infected. That means there could be thousands of cases roaming around the country already. The biggest clusters so far have been reported in Qoms and in Tehran, the capital. In response, all schools in Tehran have been shuttered until further notice, and the government is telling citizens to avoid any gatherings or leaving their homes at all, if possible.

As medical workers literally throw everything they have at the virus, using AIDS drugs that have been found to be effective as well as therapies that work on flu patients, Axios reports that the global outbreak could soon cause shortages of 150 prescription drugs.

Before we go, we’d like to point out one interesting piece that we found in the Global Times – literally the most unlikeliest of places. As Beijing begins to push a narrative blaming the US for the outbreak (we know, we know), Chinese propaganda is already sowing the seeds of doubt. The virus didn’t originate in the Hunan seafood market where an illegal wildlife trade helped it pass from bats or snakes to humans. No, it was ‘introduced’ to workers at the market via human-to-human transmission via an unknown third party.

This according to Chinese “researchers”.

So much for Mike Bloomberg’s insistence that nothing can stop the inexorable march of globalization.

Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸

@JackPosobiec

In 2016 when we started the populist revolution against globalism many people didn’t even know what that actually meant

China is now unintentionally revealing the dirty truth of globalism to a massive audience

We’ll see about that.

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/THE GLOBE/SATURDAY MORNING

  • Italy confirms second death, 12 towns on lockdown, more than 30 cases confirmed
  • Japan cases triple in a week to 121
  • Chinese scientists find virus in urine
  • Experts propose 27 day quarantine, say 14 days likely not long enough
  • Cases outside China go exponential
  • WHO team visits Wuhan; will give Monday press conference
  • Iran reports 10 new cases, deaths climb to 5
  • San Diego says 200 under ‘medical observation’
  • Young woman infected five relatives without ever showing symptoms
  • South Korea cases surge 8-fold in 4 days to 433; country reports third death

Coronavirus Deaths Outside China Spike As WHO Team Visits Wuhan

Summary:

  • Italy confirms second death, 12 towns on lockdown, more than 30 cases confirmed
  • Japan cases triple in a week to 121
  • Chinese scientists find virus in urine
  • Experts propose 27 day quarantine, say 14 days likely not long enough
  • Cases outside China go exponential
  • WHO team visits Wuhan; will give Monday press conference
  • Iran reports 10 new cases, deaths climb to 5
  • San Diego says 200 under ‘medical observation’
  • Young woman infected five relatives without ever showing symptoms
  • South Korea cases surge 8-fold in 4 days to 433; country reports third death

* * *

When WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros was asked on Thursday whether the COVID-19 virus was at a tipping point, he replied that the window to stop the outbreak from growing exponentially worse was rapidly closing.

Though by Friday night, it certainly seemed like that window had slammed shut. In South Korea, cases went exponential, soaring by 70% in one day.

Overnight, the country reported another rash of confirmed cases,bringing the total to 433, with 352 in Daegupresumably members of the cult-like church where a ‘super-spreader’ worshipped. That marks an eight-fold increase in cases in just four days for South Korea, as the AP reported.

SK also reported its third death, a man in his 40s who was found dead in his apartment and posthumously tested.

South Korean health officials warned they could soon see a rash of deaths as several patients are in serious condition. Virus patients with signs of pneumonia or other serious conditions at the Cheongdo hospital were transferred elsewhere as 17 of them are in critical condition,according to SK Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told reporters.

The country has followed China in imposing quarantines (everyone is too terrified to go outside anyway) and they’re hoping to prevent a national outbreak, despite a few cases in Seoul that weren’t immediately traceable to an obvious source, which is sort of discouraging.

“Although we are beginning to see some more cases nationwide, infections are still sporadic outside of the special management zone of Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province,” Kim said during a briefing. He called for maintaining strong border controls to prevent infections from China and elsewhere from entering South Korea.

In Italy, a seemingly minor outbreak went exponential. By day’s end, Italian health authorities had confirmed their first virus-related fatality, and 12 towns in Lombardy were under strict quarantine orders with residents huddling terrified inside their homes, a tableau that has become all too familiar by now. Another fatality followed overnight, as a couple more towns joined in the lockdown.This marked Italy as the first European country to see its own nationals succumb to the virus, according to Euronews.

Across Italy, there are 32 cases in Codogno, Lombardy, and seven in Veneto, according to the AFP and Sky Italia television. Many of the new cases represented the first infections in Italy acquired through secondary contagion.

In Iran, 10 more cases, and one more death, were recorded overnight. That brings the total number of confirmed cases to 28,including cases in Qom and Tehran. So far, five Iranians have died.

As we await more information out of China, CNBC’s Eunice Yoon reports that the team would hold a press briefing on Monday at 6 am ET.

Meanwhile, as we noted yesterday, the team has arrived in Wuhan, where it’s gathering information and observing the situation on the ground.

The team has already been to three Chinese provinces, Beijing, Sichuan and Guangdong, but are only now just visiting the city at the heart of the outbreak. Dr. Tedros confirmed the trip during public comments on Saturday, where he once again shared some familiar words.

“We have to take advantage of the window of opportunity we have, to attack the virus outbreak with a sense of urgency,” Dr. Tedros told the leaders, who had gathered for an emergency meeting on the response to the coronavirus in the continent.

President Xi said Saturday that the situation in Wuhan remains ‘grim and complex’ – which means the WHO team should be in for an eye-opening experience.

As of Saturday morning in the US, 1,200 cases of COVID-19 have been diagnosed outside ChinaMore than 200 cases have been confirmed in South Korea, more than 30 in Italy, roughly a dozen in Iran, and one in Egypt, the first to be confirmed in Africa. China has reported over 76,000 cases, including over 2,300 deaths.

Confirmed cases in Japan rose to 121 on Saturday, having more than tripled in a week.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that health officials and the cruise line are continuing to test crew members aboard the Diamond Princess. So far, 74 crew have been confirmed to have the virus, but they have been included in the toll already.

SCMP

So far, China has reported only 397 new cases Saturday, as the rate of increase continued to decline, but another 109 have died. And even the Washington Post acknowledges that there is a “great deal of skepticism” about China’s numbers, according to a new case study seen by Reuters.

Cases where patients didn’t show signs of infection for longer than two weeks have prompted some epidemiologists to suggest a 27 day quarantine period instead of just a 14 day. Also on Saturday scientists in China revealed that they had discovered a strain of the virus in a patient’s urine, raising new and uncomfortable questions about the virus’s ability to spread through sewer systems.

There have also been several new indications that the virus’s incubation period might be longer than the 14 days currently believed. A woman in Wuhan with no symptoms infected five relatives without every showing signs of infection.

In the US, health officials are scrambling to contain the fallout from the evacuation of 300 Americans from the ‘Diamond Princess’. It appears that the decision to transport 14 infected passengers along with the rest of the group was a disaster. Dozens of others appear to have been infected either during the trip, or shortly before.

But in San Diego, officials announced that they’re monitoring some 200 cases, none of which had anything to do with the ship.

After confirmed US cases more than doubled to 34 on Friday, officials in San Diego on Saturday confirmed that more than 200 people are currently being monitored over virus concerns, according to ABC News 10.

Officials said everyone being monitored had either come in contact with one of the three confirmed cases, or others under suspicion. Health officials didn’t exactly offer specific details.

They’re among more than 300 people who have been, or are being, ‘monitored’ by the county.

The 204 people under county supervision include those deemed at risk of having been exposed to the virus due to close contact with confirmed cases or because of travel to China in the past 14 days, the county said.

Those individuals are monitoring their health under the supervision of county health officials.

So far, 338 people in all have been monitored by the county, with 134 people completing their time under supervision.

Health officials say the CDC is conducting screening for those landing at one of 11 U.S. airports from China. From there, if a patient shows no symptoms they are self-quarantined at home for self-monitoring with public health supervision.

Keep in mind: These individuals aren’t being held in isolation or a mandatory quarantine. Instead, they’ve been asked to self-quarantine, and immediately report any suspicious symptoms.

San Diego has had two confirmed cases of coronavirus, or COVID-19, among the evacuees who were flown out of Wuhan a few weeks ago. One patient has since recovered from the virus and has been released. The second patient is still receiving care. A third patient, reportedly a child, is still awaiting test results, but has been said to be showing symptoms.

When they extended a coronavirus-related emergency declaration for another 30 days, officials said there were no signs the virus was spreading around San Diego. But it never hurts to be cautious.

Before we go, we wanted to remind readers of a chart we first shared a couple of days ago:

Terrifying indeed.

END

CHINA/LUXURY GOODS/SATURDAY REPORT

The coronavirus is doing a number on global luxury good sales.

(zerohedge)

 

Covid-19 Triggers Global Luxury Bust

The impact of Covid-19 on supply chains has been tremendous. Uncertainty across the global economy is building as China remains in economic paralysis. The luxury fashion industry is suffering its most significant “shock” since the 2008 financial crisis, reported the Financial Times.

Our angle in this piece is to asses which luxury brand companies are most exposed/dependent on China. Many of these firms have complex operations in the country, from manufacturing facilities to brick and mortar stores to e-commerce platforms. Chinese consumers accounted for 40% of $303 billion spent on luxury goods globally last year.

The virus outbreak has also disrupted complex supply chains for mid-market apparel brands, like Under ArmourAdidas, and Puma, warning about collapsing demand and factory shutdown woes.

LVMH, Kering, and Richemont are luxury brands that are some of the least exposed to China because their manufacturing facilities are outside the country.

However, Luca Solca, a luxury goods analyst at Bernstein, said it doesn’t matter where luxury brands are making their products, the whole demand story in China has collapsed.

Kering, the owner of Gucci, warned earlier this month that the virus outbreak in China could damage sales in the first quarter.

A Moody’s report this week showed US-listed luxury brands, Coach and Kate Spade owner Tapestry, have increased their market exposure to China in recent years to gain access to a robust market, allowing their revenues to increase far faster than industry norms. That strategy today is likely to have backfired.

Fashion brands from Hennes & Mauritz, Next of the UK, and Tory Burch, have built factories in China to take advantage of inexpensive silk, fabrics, and cotton, along with lower labor costs, are now experiencing supply chain disruptions that could lead to product shortages in the months ahead.

The National Chamber for Italian Fashion warned earlier this week that the virus impact in China would lead to a $108 million drop in Italian exports in the first quarter because Chinese demand has fallen. If consumption remains depressed, then luxury exports to China could drop by a whopping $250 million in 1H20.

A top executive at Shanghai’s luxury shopping mall Plaza 66 said the mall had been deserted this month. Stores such as Cartier and Tiffany’s have been shuttered.

“We are now, brand by brand, reallocating that inventory to other regions in the world so that we are not too heavy in stock in China,” Kering chief executive François-Henri Pinault said last week. The move suggests the environment in China remains dire and to persist well into March.

Jefferies Group noted this week that Burberry Group is the most exposed luxury brand to China.

The crisis developing in the global luxury retail market is the first demand shock since that last financial crisis more than a decade ago. Brands that have manufacturing and retail exposure to China will be damaged the most.

UBS analyst Olivia Townsend said luxury brands she spoke with said factories are to remain shut for all of February may lead to product shortages.

The demand crisis comes as the global apparel industry rolls over suggests that world stocks could be headed for a correction.

end
CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/PROOF NOT FROM FISH MARKET/SUNDAY
Eventually they will come to realize that the COVID 19 virus originated in a lab in Winnipeg Canada.  The lab a level 4 operation, was working on mutating coronaviruses. These viruses found their way into the Wuhan level 4 lab and patient zero is a worker at the lab. She probably went for lunch at the fish market which is 90 feet away and the rest is history…
(zerohedge)

Chinese Scientists Find Coronavirus Did Not Originate In Wuhan Seafood Market

Now that the coronavirus pandemic has started to spread across the globe at an alarming speed and is accelerating every day, with infected clusters emerging in South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran…

… and with more people dying from covid-19 outside of China, questions are again swirling what the real source of the pandemic was, and this time – with countless lives at stake – China will no longer be able to give a vague, undefined response like “oh, someone ate a bat at the primitive food market in Wuhan“, especially if Beijing has decided that it will soon need a scapegoat to distract the increasingly furious population from its own disastrous handling of, and ongoing lies about, the viral pandemic.

In that vein, we found it fascinating that none other than China’s nationalist propaganda mouthpiece, the Global Times, published a report overnight which dramatically changes the narrative, namely that a “New Chinese study indicates novel coronavirus did not originate in Huanan seafood market.”

According to the brand new study by Chinese researchers published on Feb 21, the novel coronavirus may have begun human-to-human transmission in late November from a place other than the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan. Of course, we already knew that, but what is critical is that until now, Beijing was adamant in sticking to the official narrative that it was the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan where the disease emerged, despite not providing any information on what animal was the vector, or who was patient zero.

 

Huanan seafood market in Wuhan

However, now that this narrative has been officially questioned and challenged in a media outlet of the communist party, it is safe to say that the theory of the Huanan food market being the source of the pandemic, is officially dead.

The study published on ChinaXiv, a Chinese open repository for scientific researchers, reveals the new coronavirus was  introduced to the seafood market from another location, and then spread rapidly from market to market. The findings were the result of analyses of genome-wide data, sources of infection and the route of spread of 93 samples of the novel coronavirus collected from 12 countries across four continents.

The study believes that patient zero – who has not yet been identified, and whose identity holds the key to unraveling the mystery of the coronavirus source – transmitted the virus to workers or sellers at the Huanan seafood market. The crowded market facilitated the further transmission of the virus to buyers, which caused a wider spread in early December 2019. According to the researchers, the new coronavirus experienced two sudden population expansions, including one on January 6, 2020, which was related to the Chinese New Year’s Day holiday.

An earlier expansion occurred on December 8, implying human-to-human transmission may have started in early December or late November, and then accelerated when it reached the Huanan seafood market. Patients from Australia, France, Japan and the US – countries with wider samples – have had at least two sources of infection, and the US in particular has reported five sources, the study said.

However, based upon limited samples in other countries, the source of most infections is deemed to be the same. In addition to their contact history with Wuhan, some may have been infected in South China’s Guangdong Province and Singapore, according to the report.

On January 6, the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a second-level emergency response, which the researchers said served as a warning against mass public activity and travel.

And in a surprising rebuke of Beijing’s handling of the epidemic, one which was implicitly endorsed by the Global Times, the researchers writes that if the warnings had received wider public attention, the number of cases spreading nationally and globally in mid-to-late January would have been lower.

While the Chinese report did not go so far as to offer alternative theories where the virus may have originated, we find it amusing that the very first comment to the Global Times article is rather tongue-in-cheek suggestion of what the real answer may be.

It is also worth noting that at the same time that even China was questioning the official narrative, the NY Post published an article which sound vaguely familiar: “Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab” in which the author writes “the evidence points to SARS-CoV-2 research being carried out at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The virus may have been carried out of the lab by an infected worker or crossed over into humans when they unknowingly dined on a lab animal. Whatever the vector, Beijing authorities are now clearly scrambling to correct the serious problems with the way their labs handle deadly pathogens.”

The conclusion: “China has unleashed a plague on its own people. It’s too early to say how many in China and other countries will ultimately die for the failures of their country’s state-run microbiology labs, but the human cost will be high.

While that conclusion is most likely accurate, the question now is who gets the blame, and why the sudden change in the official Chinese narrative. If, indeed, it is now Xi Jinping’s intention to shift attention away from Beijing’s disastrous handling of the pandemic and pin the blame on someone else, there is only one entity that he can choose: the Level 4 microbiology lab that is equipped to handle deadly coronaviruses, called the National Biosafety Laboratory, which – as we first pointed out several weeks ago – is part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

And speaking of genetically engineered viruses, it is worth reminding that none other than Nature in 2015 described an “experiment that created a hybrid version of a bat coronavirus” which has “triggered renewed debate over whether engineering lab variants of viruses with possible pandemic potential is worth the risks.”

In an article published in Nature Medicine on 9 November 2015, titled “A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence” and one of whose authors was Shi Zhengli, the top researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, we read how researchers created a chimaeric virus, made up of a surface protein of SHC014 and the backbone of a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and to mimic human disease. The chimaera infected human airway cells — proving that the surface protein of SHC014 has the necessary structure to bind to a key receptor on the cells and to infect them.

Although almost all coronaviruses isolated from bats have not been able to bind to the key human receptor, SHC014 is not the first that can do so. In 2013, researchers reported this ability for the first time in a different coronavirus isolated from the same bat population2.

As Nature wrote in 2015:

The findings reinforce suspicions that bat coronaviruses capable of directly infecting humans (rather than first needing to evolve in an intermediate animal host) may be more common than previously thought, the researchers say.

But other virologists question whether the information gleaned from the experiment justifies the potential risk. Although the extent of any risk is difficult to assess, Simon Wain-Hobson, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, points out that the researchers have created a novel virus that “grows remarkably well” in human cells. If the virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory,” he says.

A little over 4 years later, we now know exactly what the trajectory is, if indeed the coronavirus is the outcome of the same experiments Nature described back in 2015.

And in this context, we wonder if once Beijing does flip and points the finger to the Wuhan Institute Of Virology, especially now that the CDC is on the ground and doing its own analysis where the virus originated as per White House guidance, whether Twitter, which has decided to emerge as the arbiter of absolute truths related to the coronavirus epidemic, will also be forced to revise its own history of banning those who dared to speak up and predict the shape of the narrative ahead of time?

The full Chinese report published on ChinaXiv is below (link here):

END

CHINA/ECONOMICS/CORONAVIRUS
A must read:  HOW THE VIRUS WILL DESTROY OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEM AS 85% of businesses will run out of cash//huge bank failures
(zerohedge)

“It Will Be Really, Really Bad”: China Faces Financial Armageddon With 85% Of Businesses Set To Run Out Of Cash In 3 Months

For the past two weeks, even as the market took delight in China’s doctored and fabricated numbers showing the coronavirus spread was “slowing”, we warned again and again that not only was this not the case (which recent data out of South Korea, Japan and now Italy has confirmed), but that for all its assertions to the contrary, China’s workers simply refused to go back to work (even with FoxConn offering its workers extra bonuses just to return to the factory) and as a result the domestic economy had ground to a halt as we described in:

Unfortunately, it’s not getting any better as the latest high frequency updates out of China demonstrate:

Also unfortunately, it is getting worse, because as we explained several weeks ago, China is now fighting against time to reboot its economy, and the longer the paralysis continues, the more dire the outcome for both China’s banks and local companies. And since it is no longer just “scaremongering” by “conspiracy blogs”, but rather conventional wisdom that China may implode, here is a summary of how the narrative that “it will all be over by mid-March” is dramatically changing.

Let’s start with Chinese businesses: while China’s giant state-owned SOEs will likely have enough of a liquidity lifeblood to last them for 2-3 quarters, it is the country’s small businesses that are facing a head on collision with an iceberg, because according to the Nikkeiover 85% of small businesses – which employ 80% of China’s population – expect to run out of cash within three months, and a third expect the cash to be all gone within a month.

Should this happen, not only will China’s economy collapse, but China’s $40 trillion financial system will disintegrate, as it is suddenly flooded with trillions in bad loans.

Take the case of Danny Lau who last week reopened his aluminum facade panel factory in China’s southern city of Dongguan after an extended Lunar New Year break. To his shock, less than a third of its roughly 200 migrant workers showed up.

“They couldn’t make their way back,” the Hong Kong businessman said. Most of his workers hail from central-western China, including 11 from Hubei Province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 2,000 people. Many said they had been banned from leaving their villages as authorities race to contain the epidemic.

Lau’s business had already been hurt by the 25% tariff on aluminum products the U.S. imposed in its tit-for-tat trade war with China. Now he worries the production constraints will give American customers another reason to cancel orders and switch to Southeast Asian suppliers. The virus is making a bad situation “worse,” he said.

Lau is not alone: this same double blow is hitting small and midsize enterprises across China, prompting a growing chorus of calls for the government to step in and offer lifelines. The stakes could not be higher: These smaller employers account for 99.8% of registered companies in China and employ 79.4% of workers, according to the latest official statistics. They contribute more than 60% of gross domestic product and, for the government, more than 50% of tax revenue. In short: they are the beating heart of China’s economy.

Companies like Lau’s that have resumed some production are the lucky ones. Many factories and other businesses remain completely stalled due to the virus. Many owners have no other choice but pray that things return to normal before they careen off a financial cliff.

 

Chinese street vendor transacting at more than an arm’s length basis.

And here is the stark reality of China’s T-minus 3 months countdown: 85% of 1,506 SMEs surveyed in early February said they expect to run out of cash within three months, according to a report by Tsinghua University and Peking University. And forget about profits for the foreseeable future: one-third of the respondents said the outbreak is likely to cut into their full-year revenue by more than 50%, according to the Nikkei.

“Most SMEs in China rely on operating revenue and they have fewer sources for funding” than large companies and state-owned enterprises, said Zhu Wuxiang, a professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and a lead author of the report.

The problem with sequential supply chains is that these also apply to the transfer of liquidity: employers need to pay landlords, workers, suppliers and creditors – regardless of whether they can regain full production capacity anytime soon. Any abrupt and lasting delays will wreak havoc on China’s economic ecosystem.

“The longer the epidemic lasts, the larger the cash gap drain will be,” Zhu said, adding that companies affected by the trade war face a greater danger of bankruptcy because many are already heavily indebted.  “Self-rescue will not be enough. The government will need to lend help.”

So where are we nearly two months after the epidemic started? Wwll, as of last Monday, only about 25% of people had returned to work in China’s tier-one cities, according to an estimate by Japanese brokerage Nomura, based on data from China’s Baidu. By the same time last year, 93% were back on the job.

And making matters worse, as we first noted several weeks ago, local governments around the country face a daunting question of whether to focus on staving off the virus or encourage factory reopenings, as the following tweet perfectly captures.

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

Banner 1 says: “If you go out messing around now, expect grass on your grave to grow soon.“ Banner 2 says, “Sitting at home eats up all your have, hurry up go out & find a job.” The slogan changes as frequently as they change the criteria for diagnosis.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

As long as the national logistics network “is still in shambles,” Nomura’s chief China economist, Lu Ting said, there might be little to gain from rushing restarts, whereas “the cost of a rebound in infections might be quite high.” He expects economic activity to pick up again in a couple of months, although the longer Beijing fails to confidently put an end to the pandemic, the longer it will take for activity to return to normal. Meanwhile the 3 month countdown clock is ticking…

Don’t tell that to Zhou Dewen, the chairman of the Small and Medium Business Development Association in the city of Wenzhou, who knows this and agrees that this crisis is worse than SARS. Far, far worse. In fact, he said, it is “the most severe” of any crisis in the 40 years since China embarked on major economic reforms. He sees not a double but a “triple whammy,” factoring in the economic slowdown the country was experiencing even before the trade conflict and the virus.

Wenzhou, on the coast of Zhejiang Province, was the first city outside Hubei put into full lockdown in an attempt to stop the pathogen. As of last week, Zhou said, only factories that produce medical supplies had been allowed to resume work.

“What entrepreneurs need is confidence,” Zhou said. “But first they need to survive.” He is hoping the government will offer fiscal support and tax breaks to buy more time for small businesses. Some local governments have already responded to such pleas by waiving electric bills and delaying taxes, social security payments and loans. But for some businesses, such relief measures are little consolation.

Worse, last Sunday the communist party’s mouthpiece, the Global Times, suggested that instead of waiting for fiscal bailouts, Beijing will have no choice but to cut spending and unleash austerity, a move that would have catastrophic consequences for China.  But even if Beijing does ease fiscally, it is unclear just what it can do short of printing money and handing it out to everyone. “A tax reduction doesn’t help if you don’t even have income,” said Zhu, who must somehow scrape together around 700,000 yuan ($100,000) for rent and the salaries of about 40 employees.

Zhu reckons her company will lose about 3 million yuan in profit over the two months. Besides the postponements, couples that were looking at wedding options before the outbreak have put their planning on hold. There is little room, it seems, to think about love in the time of the coronavirus.

“This is the most difficult time I have ever experienced” after 11 years of running the company, Zhu said. The worst part might be the uncertainty: She has no idea when the authorities might lift the ban or whether she can make it that long. “All of this is unknown to us,” Zhu said.

She is not alone: Wu Hai, owner of Mei KTV, a chain of 100 Karaoke bars across China, took to the nation’s premier outlet of discontent, social media platform WeChat, to voice his despair. KTV’s bars have been closed by the government because of the virus, choking off its cash flow. The special loans from the authorities will be of little help and no bank will provide a loan without enough collateral and cash flow, he said on his official WeChat account earlier this month. On WeChat , Wu gave himself two months before he has to shutter his business.

* * *

It’s not just Japan’s flagship financial publication and owner of the Financial Times, the Nikkei, that is dramatically changing the narrative away from “all shall be well.” In its headline article today, Bloomberg writes that “Millions of Chinese Firms Face Collapse If Banks Don’t Act Fast” and described the plight of Brigita, a director at one of China’s largest car dealers, who is also running out of options. Her firm’s 100 outlets have been closed for about a month because of the coronavirus, cash reserves are dwindling and banks are reluctant to extend deadlines on billions of yuan in debt coming due over the next few months. There are also other creditors to think about.

“If we can’t pay back the bonds, it will be very, very bad,” said Brigita, whose company has 10,000 employees and sells mid- to high-end car brands such as BMWs. She asked that only her first name be used and that her firm not be identified because she isn’t authorized to speak to the press. With much of China’s economy still idled as authorities try to contain an epidemic that has infected more than 75,000 people, millions of companies across the country are in a race against the clock to stay afloat.

The irony, of course, is that all this is happening even as China has in fact eased dramatically in recent weeks, from cutting rates, to engaging in a barrage of mini stimulus measures, to injecting massive amounts of liquidity, to cutting taxes, to supporting virus-stricken companies…

… to flooding the economy with a record 5 trilion in loans and shadow debt in the last month.

Yet while China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good.

“If China fails to contain the virus in the first quarter, I expect a vast number of small businesses would go under,” said Lv Changshun, an analyst at Beijing Zhonghe Yingtai Management Consultant company.

Said otherwise, unless China reboots its economy, it faces an economic shock the likes of which it has never seen before. Yet it can’t reboot the economy unless it truly stops the viral pandemic, something it will never be able to do if it lies to the population that the pandemic is almost over in hopes of forcing people to get back to work. Hence the most diabolic Catch 22 for China’s social and economic system, because whereas until now China could easily lie its way out of any problem, in this case lying will only make the underlying (viral pandemic) problem worse as sick people return to work, only to infect even more co-workers, forcing even more businesses to be quarantined.

Some, like Bloomberg, blame the banks.

As a group, Chinese banks had offered about 254 billion yuan in loans related to the containment effort as of Feb. 9, according to the banking industry association, with foreign lenders such as Citigroup Inc. also lowering rates. To put that into perspective, China’s small businesses typically face interest payments on about 36.9 trillion yuan of loans every quarter.

In an emailed response to questions from Bloomberg News, ICBC said it has allocated 5.4 billion yuan ($770 million) to help companies fight the virus. “We approve qualified small businesses’ loan applications as soon as they arrive,” the bank said

Alas, it is not that simple: as we explained two weeks ago in “China’s Banks Face $6 Trillion Coronavirus Cataclysm If Epidemic Is Not Contained Soon“, China’s banks are rapidly retrenching well-aware that they face an explosion in bad debt as the bulk of Chinese companies face collapse. As such, it makes little sense for them to throw good money after bad, and instead most are hunkering down in anticipation of the coming shock.

Indeed, as even Bloomberg concedes, banks are hardly any better off themselves: “Many are under-capitalized and on the ropes after two years of record debt defaults. Rating firm S&P Global has estimated that a prolonged emergency could cause the banking system’s bad loan ratio to more than triple to about 6.3%, amounting to an increase of 5.6 trillion yuan.”

The bottom line is that for both companies and their bank lenders (and sources of potential rescue financing), there is one commodity in very short supply: trust. Trust that the counterparty will do the right thing; trust that the government will treat everyone fairly instead of just bailing out a handful of connected politicians. Trust, which in China in general has been lacking for years, as the formerly communist country succumbed to crony hypercapitalism with Chinese characteristics, one in which knowing who to bribe and who to lie to meant the difference between success and failure. Trust was never cultivated. And now that lack of trust is about to cost China dearly.

In any case, the lack of far more funding means that China’s smaller businesses whose revenue have suddenly collapsed, have just weeks if not days of liquidity left. Brigita, whose firm owes money to dozens of banks, said she has so far only reached an agreement with a handful to extend payment deadlines by two months. For now, the company is still paying salaries. But those will stop too.

And that’s when the real crisis begins as hundreds of millions of workers suddenly find themselves unemployed.

For some the crisis has already begun. Wang Qiang, a 23-year-old migrant worker, has been unable to find work in Shenzhen after three weeks of searching. On top of the limited factory job openings, the Nikkei notes that he faces another major obstacle: his identification labels him a native of Hubei.

His home province, where the virus originated, accounts for the vast majority of the 74,000-plus mainland infections and most of the deaths. “The labor dispatch companies told me that the factories don’t want people from Hubei,” he said. The fact that he did not go home for the Lunar New Year holidays seems to make no difference.

Wang spends his nights sleeping on the floor of an uncompleted building. “I’ll wait and see if the situation gets better when companies restart work on Feb. 24.”

In a few short hours Wang will be greatly disappointed. He won’t be the last one, however, and if China’s doesn’t find some miraculous solution to the current coronavirus crisis, in two months China will face a financial, economic and social cataclysm the likes of which it has never seen in its modern history.

END

Even Xi warns of a huge economic fallout

(zerohedge)

“Big Hit” – Xi Warns Of Economic Fallout From Covid-19 Outbreak 

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, told officials at a Communist Party meeting on Sunday that the Covid-19 outbreak is a “big test” for the country, and policy adjustments would cushion the economy for a downturn. Xi acknowledged “obvious shortcomings in response to the epidemic,” warning that short-term financial stress could be imminent.

We’ve noted on several occasions that China’s economy is completely paralyzed.

Just take a look at Goldman’s Adam Gillard’s recent commodity report that suggests full country apparent demand is down a massive -66% y/y.

Or better yet, Nomura’s Chief China economist Ting Lu noted that China’s Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI), which gauges momentum in the country’s high-tech industries and is closely correlated with official manufacturing PMI slumped to 29.9 in February (from 50.1 in January!).

So, it’s apparent that the closely followed China manufacturing PMI could print in 30-40 range this month, suggesting the current growth slump triggered by the virus is collapsing the Chinese economy.

Xi said Sunday the “the epidemic situation is still severe and complex, and prevention and control work is in the most difficult and critical stage.” 

He warned:

“The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia will inevitably have a relatively big impact on the economy and society.” 

Beijing has deployed several rounds of monetary policy to support the economy, as a twin shock (demand and supply) is having devastating impacts on first-quarter growth.

Xi said low-risk provinces should restart production monetarily, areas with medium-level risks should restart production on an orderly timeline, and high-risk regions should focus on virus containment strategies.

For more color on China’s plunging economic output, we noted last week several “alternative” economic indicators such as real-time measurements of air pollution (a proxy for industrial output), daily coal consumption (a proxy for electricity usage and manufacturing) and traffic congestion levels (a proxy for commerce and mobility), concluding that China’s economy appears to have ground to a halt.

These observations were subsequently reaffirmed when we showed that steel demand, property sales, and passenger traffic had all failed to rebound from the “dead zone” hit during China’s Lunar New Year hibernation.

No matter the policy support Beijing deploys to stabilize the economy, economic paralysis is already visible, with 750 million people in lockdown, where people are becoming irritable at Beijing’s now openly over propaganda to downplay the epidemic. The shuttering of factories will lead to countless workers being fired and companies running out of funds, as the next big bankruptcy wave will hit smaller to medium-sized operations. To make matters worse, the price of food is surging for the most volatile combination possible, a collapse of the economy mixed with social unrest, one which, if not arrested soon could lead a new violent phase in the virus outbreak.

Putting it all together, the most significant economic shock to hit China’s economy in nearly a decade is unfolding, and it could also tilt the global economy into recession.

For weeks, investors have been gobbling up stocks, convinced that more stimuli from Beijing could force a V-shaped rebound in China’s economy in Q2 – but as the pandemic spreads across the world, now shutting down parts of South KoreaJapan, Iran, and Italy, the whole containment narrative has broken down – and the global economy could be nearing a prolonged period of below-trend growth.

 

Supply Chain Disruptions Impact On Global Growth: $570 Billion & Growing…

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

In a previous post, we mentioned that stagflation is a risk that central planners are ignoring. However, this risk is not just an isolated challenge focused on economies like Mexico, India or Argentina. Even in countries like Germany and Japan the trend of inflation, particularly in non-replicable goods, is diverging from economic growth. Inflation is picking up, while growth is slowing down.

Supply chain disruption and impact via Bloomberg

Central banks continue to pump liquidity to disguise the rising risks to the global economy,but the coronavirus epidemic is showing to investors three important lessons:

  1. Containment of the epidemic is taking significantly more time than what many market participants estimated. Calls fro a rapid recovery that would not only offset the first-quarter impact but improve it, are disproved.
  2. The impact on supply chains is significantly larger than most analysts expected. China is now 17% of the global economy and provinces that count for 89% of the country’s exports remain in lockdown.
  3. Global excess capacity is a mitigating factor on rising inflation only for replicable and highly competitive goods. There is clearly ample capacity to offset supply chain disruptions in energy commodities, metals, and industrial goods but there are severe problems surfacing in sectors that are very dependent on Chinese supply, particularly auto parts and technology components.

Market participants started to realize last week that the coronavirus effect was not going to be a two-month issue that would be followed by strong growth. In a recent PriceWaterhouse Coopers report, it showed that the global impact could reach at least 0.7% of GDP. This estimate uses Eric Toner´s infected and casualty estimates (John Hopkins Center for Health Security) and the economic impact using McKibbins & Lee methodology (the ones that estimated the SARS impact).

Source: PWC using Eric Toner´s infected and casualty estimates (John Hopkins Center for Health Security) and economic impact using McKibbins & Lee methodology

The key factor in this supply chain disruption risk is that while headline inflation may remain weak due to falling commodity prices, the prices of essential goods may continue to rise faster than official inflation and generate more unrest among citizens all over the world.

The coronavirus impact on economies outside of China has not been estimated properly either.

If we look at the estimates from large investment banks, for example, they show a surprisingly benign -if not inexistent- impact on the Eurozone and a very modest effect on Latin America.

I would beg to differ. The Eurozone’s service economy, that has maintained GDP and PMIs above recession levels, is very exposed to Chinese supply-risk and epidemic issues. Tourism is a clear example, but the overall services economy is significantly more dependent on China, in Germany for example, than current estimates take into account. This could shave off at least 0.2% of GDP growth in the Eurozone in 2020.

One of the bizarre effects of China’s supply chain disruption is that it is showing a positive effect on some economies’ PMIs and GDP estimates because delays in imports add to the external sector contribution to growth (fewer imports adds as a positive to GDP, even if it is due to extraordinary events). This “positive effect”, however, fades rapidly and leads to weaker growth and rising supply issues, which -in turn- generate problems of working capital for many exporters and industrial companies.

If there is anything that has been proven so far is that the estimates of a rapid recovery in February have been disproven by reality and that the pro

ENDcess of normalization may take longer than expected.

As time passes, the compounding effect on the global economy rises: Fewer dollar revenues for exporting nations, particularly commodity producers, may pose a financial threat as dollar-denominated debt maturities rise, supply-chain disruptions may continue to inflate non-replicable goods’ prices, and economic growth estimates will likely be revised down yet again.

These are risks that we need to consider. Ignoring them just because central banks will continue to pump liquidity and cut rates is irresponsible.

END

Chinese workers refuse to go back to work despite Beijing’s demands

(zeorhedge)

Chinese Workers Refuse To Go Back To Work Despite Beijing’s Demands

When we commented earlier that the coronavirus pandemic means that the vast majority of Chinese small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have at most 2-3 months of cash left, a potentially catastrophic outcome that will not only crippled China’s economy but its $40 trillion financial system, we summarized the circular quandary in which Beijing finds itself, to wit:

… unless China reboots its economy, it faces an economic shock the likes of which it has never seen before in modern times. Yet it can’t reboot the economy unless it truly stops the viral pandemic, something it will never be able to do if it lies to the population that the pandemic is almost over in hopes of forcing people to get back to work. Hence the most diabolic Catch 22 for China’s social and economic system, because whereas until now China could easily lie its way out of any problem, in this case lying will only make the underlying (viral pandemic) problem worse as sick people return to work, only to infect even more co-workers, forcing even more businesses to be quarantined.

Shrokingly (or perhaps not at all in light of China’s tremendous human rights record), Beijing has picked output over life expectancy, and in a furious scramble to restart its economy, which as we showed earlier remains flatlined…

… according to most high-frequency metrics, it has been “advising” people to get back to work, even as new coronavirus cases are still coming in, in the process threatening to blow out the current epidemic with orders of magnitude more cases as places of employment become the new hubs of viral distribution.

As Bloomberg picked up late on Sunday, following what we said earlier namely that “local governments around the country face a daunting question of whether to focus on staving off the virus or encourage factory reopenings” China’s central and local governments are one again easing the criteria for factories to resume operations “as they walk a tightrope between containing a virus that has killed more than 2,400 people and preventing a slump in the world’s second-largest economy.” This schizophrenic dilemma for a government which faces two equally terrible choices, was best summarized by the following two banners observed in China:

  • Banner 1 says: “If you go out messing around now, expect grass on your grave to grow soon.“
  • Banner 2 says, “Sitting at home eats up all your have, hurry up go out & find a job.”

Indeed, a perfectly schizophrenic message from the government to the people:

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

Banner 1 says: “If you go out messing around now, expect grass on your grave to grow soon.“ Banner 2 says, “Sitting at home eats up all your have, hurry up go out & find a job.” The slogan changes as frequently as they change the criteria for diagnosis.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

And yet, even with both options equally terrible, Beijing also has no choice but to pick one. As a result, as Bloomberg writes, “the rush to restart has been propelled by China’s leader Xi Jinping and top leaders, who are urging companies to resume production so the country can continue to meet lofty goals for growth and economic development in 2020.”

Regular Zero Hedge readers know the rest: with most of Chinese economic output paralyzed, officials in China’s provinces have taken up Xi’s call, with one region after another relaxing rules that had kept more than half the nation’s industrial base idle following the Lunar New Year holiday.

So as China undergoes a wholesale push to reboot its economy, there is certainly some success. AS Bloomberg notes, “about 600 kilometers east of the virus epicenter of Wuhan, vendors and customers at the Yiwu wholesale market in Zhejiang province are having their body temperature tested at the entrances after the vast complex that wholesales manufactured goods reopened on Tuesday, three days earlier than expected. Power demand has also started to pick up in China, with six major generators reporting that coal consumption – while still below pre-holiday levels – rose 7% on Feb. 20 from the previous day.”

Well, “pick up” may be a bit of an exageration but here it is: the smallest possible increment, yet still more than 50% below where it was on previous years, suggesting China’s economy is running at half of its capacity, which in GDP terms means an epic collapse, a lifetime away from the traditional 6%-7% Y/Y increase.

Ultimately, the core problem China is facing as we explained earlier today, is one of trust: trust by workers that their employers, and certainly the government, has their best interest in mind when it is urging everyone to get back to work. Or lack thereof.

“Our factory is still missing quite a lot of workers, so we can only resume limited production,” said Dong Liu, vice president of a textile manufacturer in Fujian, southeastern China, that employs more than 400 workers. Dong said he applied to the government on Feb. 17 to restart and the inspector came the next day and gave permission. “More and more factories are allowed to reopen this week,” he said, although as they reopen, they find the problem mentioned before: nobody is gullible enough to go back to work. After all why risk it if a return to the place of work with the pandemic still raging means a material chance of a death sentence?

Naturally, China’s massive population – while bombarded by propaganda on a daily basis – is hardly naive, and is very well attuned to what is really going on. And what is going on is that China’s economy has ground to a halt because nobody trusts the government anymore!

Even Bloomberg admits it: “the push to get production rolling again risks a renewed spread of the virus, about which much is still not yet known” (it’s certainly not known where it came from after Chinese scientists disproved the widely held propaganda narrative that it miraculously emerged from some bat at the Wuhan seafood market during the peak of bat hibernation season).

“A peak may come at the end of this month for the whole country but it won’t necessarily indicate a turning point,” Zhong Nanshan, a respiratory disease expert who led research into a treatment for SARS, told reporters in Guangzhou earlier this week. “The epidemic could have a new peak after people travel back to work.”

The last sentence is predicated on two major assumptions:

  1. that workers will decide they want to return to work; and
  2. that they will consider the outsized risk to their lives from returning to work as lesser than the threat to their livelihood from not receiving a salary.

And what happens if they all refuse to come back? What if China, sick of the lies and fabrications of its government, creates the largest, if completely unexpected, labor union in history and one which refuses to work and demands handouts from the government until the coronavirus pandemic is well and truly halted, something which can not be ascertained for a long, long time in light of the government’s flagrant and ongoing lies?

Meanwhile, the government schizophrenic, contradictory instructions continue:

“Every day several government departments send representatives to spot check our efforts to curb the virus,” said Melissa Shu, the company’s export manager. “They come from the district government, the center for disease control, the city government, at different times of day and check if we disinfect in time, whether we test the temperature of workers, whether workers have masks, whether one person has a separate lunch seat, whether lunch is properly arranged, etc, etc.”

Shu said at lunchtime, workers need to sit at least one meter apart (about three feet).

“As a result, we can’t ask all the workers to come to work even when they’re in town ready to work,” she said, adding that the plant has about 40-50 staff working in rotation, about half the number employed before the virus.

Ironically, some Chinese factories already have plenty of space, thanks to the long-running trade war with the U.S.

“Compared with the virus, that was much worse” said Hui Zhuo, founder of a wooden furniture manufacturer in Zhongshan, in the Pearl River Delta. “We’ve cut a lot of workers in the last two years — so I’m not too worried this time because the space in my factory is big enough to avoid being crowded.”

And speaking of trade war, if the long-running feud between the US and China wasn’t enough for Chinese customers to seek alternative supply chains, the coronavirus fiasco is sure to be the tipping point:

In the longer term, the outbreak is likely to exacerbate the damage wrought on China’s factories by the trade war. For some overseas customers in fast-moving industries like fashion, the factory shutdown amid the virus has been another wake-up call that may spur them to reduce their reliance on Chinese suppliers.

“I think for the next season or the next year’s goods, retailers would be looking at sourcing more from other countries,” said AJ Mak, CEO of Chain of Demand, which provides artificial-intelligence systems to retailers in Asia and the U.S. to predict product demand. “I think those conversations which started from the trade war would be definitely accelerated.”

The irony is that by the time most Chinese workers do return to their jobs, those jobs may not exist anymore.

Meanwhile China’s push to salvage its growth targets won’t be complete until the virus is fully under control – something that is impossible to predict, and will in fact be delayed the more China pushes to restore full factory staffing:

“When can everyone come back to work? No one knows,” said Shu at the Zhenjiang LED factory. “Logistics is still not yet fully resumed, inter-city transportation is still restricted. Only after the epidemic is fully controlled, we can truly return to normal work and life.“

What we do know, is that for now, when given the choice of the carrot or the stick, Chinese employers and the government are picking the carrot… for now. As China’s Global Times reported, fabrication giants such as Apple supplier Foxconn have rolled out incentives to encourage workers to return to their posts amid the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, the company’s factory in Zhengzhou said it would award 7000 yuan to back-to-work staff and give bonuses in stages to workers who clock in for up to 55 days.

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

Apple supplier ‘s factory in Zhengzhou said it would award 7000 yuan to back-to-work staff and give bonuses in stages to workers who clock in for up to 55 days. Foxconn rolled out incentives to encourage workers to return to their posts amid the : media reports

View image on Twitter

So far such “carrot” approaches have failed to yield results, which leads us to think that a far worse eventuality is next: the stick.

And if China’s population was already furious at the inept response to the coronavirus pandemic, the information blackout, the self-serving lies by the communist party over the past two months, and the general lack of respect for ordinary people by China’s billionaire oligarchs, one can only imagine what happens to the mood across China’s workforce – the largest in the world – once the entire nation becomes one giant gulag, where everyone is forced to work for the greater good, or else…

END

China Cancels Top Political Meeting As Virus Crisis Worsens

China announced Monday it had canceled the biggest political event of the year, the National People’s Congress (NPC), slated for March 5, as the Covid-19 outbreak continues to worsen, reported The Washington Post.

The cancellation suggests the virus outbreak continues to worsen with more than 77,000 confirmed cases and nearly 2,500 deaths across mainland China. As we’ve explained before, the real numbers are much higher.

China is attempting to reboot its economy as production shutdowns have crashed economic output. The most significant problem with rebooting the economy is that the virus must be completely eradicated first; otherwise, it will continue to spread across towns and factories – forcing even longer shutdowns and prolonging the crisis. This is China’s Catch-22, where in the past, it could lie itself out of almost every problem, now the more lying it does, the worse the situation gets.

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, told officials at a Communist Party meeting on Sunday that the virus outbreak is a “big test” for the country, and policy adjustments would cushion the economy for a downturn. Xi acknowledged “obvious shortcomings in response to the epidemic,” warning that short-term financial stress could be imminent.

We’ve noted on several occasions that China’s economy remains paralyzed.

Xi said the “the epidemic situation is still severe and complex, and prevention and control work is in the most difficult and critical stage.” 

The NPC and its chief advisory body usually begin on March 5 will be pushed out this year – this all suggests conditions in China will remain severe and highlights that Beijing is having a difficult time in controlling the “contained” narrative.

China backtracked on an earlier announcement that would ease travel restrictions on Wuhan, suggesting, once again, the virus outbreak is far from contained.

As we’ve noted, China revised the definition of what a confirmed case is to ease public fears about a runaway pandemic and get more people back to work. But explained above, its Catch 22 situation, as fake data for optically pleasing headlines of a crisis abating, will do more harm than good.

This is the first time the Chinese have postponed the NPC since 1995. China’s economy will likely remain in economic paralysis through March.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/CHINA UPDATE/MONDAY MORNING

Italy the heartland of the Europe’s large manufacturing reports its sixth death and they are being quarantined. It is grim and complete

(zerohedge)

Italy Reports Sixth Coronavirus Death, China’s NHC Says Situation In Wuhan “Still Grim And Complex”: Live Updates

Update (0835ET): As the WHO team wrapped up its Monday press conference with what was essentially tantamount to a global confidence-building exercise in China’s response, a senior official from China’s National Health Commission said the coronavirus risk from Wuhan had gone ‘way down.’

Of course, if that’s true, then why did officials cancel a planned easing of the lockdown?

The official added that China has managed to stop the ‘rapid rise’ of infections in Wuhan, though they haven’t stopped the epidemic yet, and that the situation remains “grim and complex” – as President Xi said over the weekend.

Meanwhile, over in Italy, ANSA reports that a sixth person has died.

Even more alarming for futbal fans across the country: Four Serie A matches were postponed on Sunday, while others on Saturday went ahead.

* * *

When American traders logged off on Friday, they might have noticed a few suspicious headlines out of Italy reporting a sudden spike in cases. But anybody who spent the weekend away from their desks and Twitter might be surprised to find that the Europe’s third-largest economy is now host to a genuine crisis.

As we reported over the weekend, more than a dozen towns in Lombardy – the hardest hit region with 167 confirmed cases and 4 deaths – are on complete lockdown. According to the latest update, there are now 219 confirmed cases in Italy, as well as five deaths.

Angelo Borrelli, head of the country’s civil protection agency, said Monday during a press briefing that another 91 people are currently in isolation inside their homes.

Following the weekend spike,  Italy’s neighbors are getting nervous. Austria is exploring border controls, though Germany said Monday that it’s not currently considering closing its borders with Italy, an obvious attempt by the de facto leader of the EU to try and quell a continent-wide panic.

Elsewhere, more countries are tightening restrictions on South Korea. Hong Kong on Monday declared that it would stop non-residents from South Korea from entering Hong Kong.

This has sparked a bemused response from Hong Kongers on twitter:

邱師奶 CLai.Y@yauszelai

Our fucking Hong Kong government has just announced that South Koreans will not be allowed to enter HK starting at 6 am tomorrow, but our fucking government has always allowed people from China to enter. What the hell is this going on?

See 邱師奶 CLai.Y’s other Tweets

👼いかす😷@ikasu0

lmao Hong Kong is banning South Koreans from entering Hong Kong as if they’d come to this shithole and get infected with the china virus

See 👼いかす😷‘s other Tweets

A recent poll showed that a majority of the people in Hong Kong don’t trust the data provided by the Chinese government or the WHO.

* * *

In Italy, it seems like most of the dead fit the profile of elderly patients with co-occurring health problems. One of the two most recent deaths was reported to be a man from the village of Val Alzano Lombardo. He died at the Papa Giovanni XXIII hospital in Bergamo, near Milan. The hospital said the 83-year-old man (reports on his age differ) had a serious underlying health problem, but it didn’t specify what it was, according to CNN.

As WHO officials finished off preparations for their big press conference Monday morning, Beijing announced that it would delay the National People’s Congress, which had been set for early March. The move was telegraphed by leaked media reports well in advance.

Officials said Monday the key political meetings, originally due to take place from March 5, would be rescheduled. Analysts said the government in Beijing was worried about the optics of holding a large-scale public event while millions are living under lockdown. We agree – that would not be a good look for the CCP right now, especially after all of those videos of police rounding up violators of the lockdown who were probably just trying to find something to eat.

President Xi said one day earlier that China is in a “crisis” that would inevitably impact the country’s economy. But whatever the fallout, he promised it would be brief and manageable.

Following the departure of the WHO team from Wuhan, local authorities made an extraordinary decision: all of a sudden, the cities’ most senior officials announced a loosening of the city’s lockdown. Millions rejoiced.

But they were soon disappointed: Because three hours later, the order was reversed, we assume, after Beijing caught wind of it.

According to the SCMP, the retracted announcement was issued by a ‘subordinate working group’ that didn’t have official approval from their superiors. The individuals responsible will be ‘reprimanded’. The lockdown has been in effect since Jan. 23.

The order would have allowed non-residents with no symptoms and no contact with infected patients to leave, a decision that would have freed thousands of foreign students.

In other news, Guangdong, China’s second worst-hit province, has downgraded its level of alert, with local officials saying the outbreak has mostly been contained to Hubei.

As we reported last night, figures released early Monday in China reported 409 new cases of the novel coronavirus and 150 new deaths from the outbreak on Sunday. That brings the total number of confirmed cases to 77,150, with a death toll of 2,592 (which will be higher if the Iran deaths are confirmed). The majority of new cases, 398, were in Hubei.

In Israel, PM Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for his political future in a critical upcoming election that could see him jailed if he doesn’t hang on to power.So the heavy-handed measures to contain foreigners suspected of carrying the virus are hardly a surprise. In the latest step to contain the virus, Israel will send hundreds of East Asian nationals back to their home countries in the coming days, according to the Israel Airport Authority.

While Iran remains the epicenter of the outbreak in the Middle East, and several neighbors have already closed their borders, the first confirmed case was detected in Bahrain overnight.

Now, just imagine if Trump did that.

Vietnamese airline Bamboo Airways is suspending all flights to South Korea starting from Feb. 26.

In closing, we bring you comments made by Warren Buffett in an interview with CNBC, a clip of which was released on Monday. The ‘Oracle of Omaha’ said the virus is ‘scary stuff’. But it shouldn’t impact humans’ decisions about whether to buy or sell stocks, Buffett said, alluding to the old Ben Graham axiom that stocks should be bought and held based on the fundamental value of the underlying company.

But as twitter’s Mark Spiegel joked, Buffett’s remarks had an unexpected connotation:

Mark B. Spiegel@markbspiegel

Translation: “It shouldn’t affect what you do in stocks because ‘the human race’ no longer controls those.” https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1231919483754864643 

Squawk Box

@SquawkCNBC

“It is scary stuff. I don’t think it should affect what you do in stocks but in terms of the human race it is scary stuff when you have a pandemic,” says Warren Buffett on #coronavirus.#AskWarren

Embedded video

Humans don’t buy stocks anymore, dummy!

END

“It’s Total Panic” – Store-Shelves Empty As Virus-Spread Sparks Panic-Buying Food & Masks Across Italy

Update (1050ET): It’s not just food. As Bloomberg reports, in the tiny hamlet of Cassago Brianza, half way between Milan and Lake Como, Giovanni Casiraghi was taken aback to find a long line of customers waiting when he opened his industrial equipment store on Monday morning.

They all asked for the same thing: a mask typically used in building sites or factories.

In less than 30 minutes, he had sold more than 500 of them.

“We sell industrial equipment and I know most of our clients, so I was astonished when people I’ve never seen before asked for these professional masks,” the 71-year-old said.

“Someone told me that I was one of the few shops to still have protective masks. Panic is spreading even here, far from the epicenter of the outbreak.”

Giovanni Casiraghi at his industrial equipment store in Cassago Brianza.

“It’s total panic,” said Michela, whose family owns the L’Arte del Panino bar in west Milan.

“There have been very few clients today. And we have to shut down the bar at 6 p.m.” She declined to give her last name.

*  *  *

As Summit news’ Paul Joseph Watson detailed earlier, people in several regions of Italy have reacted to coronavirus spreading throughout the country by panic buying, leaving some store shelves empty.

With more than 220 people infected, Italy has the most coronavirus victims out of any country in Europe. Seven people have died.

Footage out of Milan shot yesterday shows some products almost or entirely out of stock.

LorenzoDeVidovich@ldv_ldv

🦠This is a supermarket in Milan. Sunday, February 23rd, 7:30pm. Hard to explain

Embedded video

Sairy_94@Tupa_94

Ma in che senso ?

Embedded video

Some residents flippantly likened the situation to a “zombie apocalypse.”

Raffaele W.F.@ralph090

Ma che bello vivere un apocalisse zombie.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

marco@mrvnbz

oh my

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Antonio García@media_maquina

Italians hoarding ‘essentials’ to survive

View image on Twitter

Lock downs are in place in the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, with 50,000 people being unable to leave without special permission.

Numerous museums, cinemas, bars, businesses and schools have also shut down and sporting activities have been suspended.

The Venice Carnival was also cancelled, while designer Giorgio Armani streamed his Milan Fashion Week event from an empty theater.

The panic is largely being driven by the speed at which coronavirus cases in Italy jumped from just 3 on Thursday to over 220.

“There is panic and a surreal atmosphere,” said Melinda Baret, a Filipino woman working in Milan as a domestic helper.

“I’m traveling using a face mask, and this morning in the metro there were fewer people than usual, most of them with a mask and the rest with a scarf protecting their face. I’m still going to all the families I work with, but I’m using a lot of precautions. I’m scared.”

*  *  *

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end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/SUNDAY/RADIO FREE EUROPE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/sunday

Everybody closes its borders to Iran as they record 5 days.

(Radio Free Europe)

As Iran’s Coronavirus Death Toll Rises, Neighboring Countries Close Borders, Impose Travel Bans

UPDATED


Some Iranians, like these waiting to cross a street in the capital Tehran, have started wearing masks to protect themselves against the spread of the virus.
Some Iranians, like these waiting to cross a street in the capital Tehran, have started wearing masks to protect themselves against the spread of the virus.

Iranian authorities reported two more deaths from the deadly coronavirus, bringing the country’s death toll to eight — the highest such toll outside the disease’s epicenter in China.

Speaking February 23 on state TV, Health Ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur said a total of 15 new confirmed cases had been reported across the country, bringing the overall figure to 43.

Jahanpur gave no details on the new deaths, including when they occurred. But Iranian media earlier cited Abbas Musavi, the head of the Medical Science University in the northern province of Mazandaran, as saying that an unnamed person who had traveled from the capital, Tehran, to the regional capital of Tonekabon had died.

Iran has reported more fatalities from coronavirus, officially known as COVID-19, than any other country aside from China. In all, there are 785 suspected cases across Iran, the Health Ministry reported on February 22 — a number that is likely to grow.

Coronavirus Concerns In Iran Amid Elections

 

Jahanpour earlier was quoted by the dpa news agency as saying that of the newly detected cases, two were in Tehran, and eight were in the city of Qom, 120 kilometers south of Tehran.

Authorities have steadily imposed more restrictions on public spaces and travel in an effort to curtail the disease’s spread.

Religious pilgrimages to neighboring Iraq have been suspended, one unnamed official told the semiofficial Fars news agency. The Health Ministry has closed schools and universities in several cities, along with movie theaters. Theater and concert events have been cancelled. Professional soccer games will be played as planned but without spectators.

Minoo Mohraz, a Health Ministry official, said on February 21 that the virus may have spread from Chinese workers working in Qom, where a Chinese company has been building a solar-power plant.

WATCH: Coronavirus Concerns In Iran Amid Elections

Iran’s Sudden Spread Of Coronavirus Leads To Distrust In State’s Handling Of The Disease

Turkey and Pakistan temporarily closed their land borders with Iran due to coronavirus on February 23, while Afghanistan suspended travel to and from Iran.

An emergency situation has been declared in the Pakistani province of Balochistan, which has a long frontier with Iran.

Officials in Balochistan suspended almost all traffic across the Taftan border crossing with Iran.

In Ankara, Turkish Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said that eight people have been refused entry to Turkey from Iran since February 21, when Turkey introduced health checks on travelers at frontier crossings.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian announced on Facebook that Yerevan will close the border with Iran for two weeks and suspend flights.

Pashinian said his cabinet will hold a meeting on February 24 to discuss further measures.

Afghanistan’s Health Ministry said that three suspected cases of coronavirus have been reported in the western province of Herat. The three Herat residents had returned from the city of Qom in neighboring Iran and are currently in “isolation,” the ministry said.

The country’s National Security Council tweeted: “To prevent the spread of the novel #coronavirus and protect the public, Afghanistan suspends all passenger movement (air and ground) to and from Iran.”

Jordan also on February 23 began denying entry of non-Jordanians coming from Iran.

Infected travelers from Iran already have been discovered in Canada and Lebanon.

Earlier in the week, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia suspended most flights to Iran.

In China, where the virus emerged, more than 2,300 people have died. Another large cluster has been detected in South Korea, whose president raised the nation’s alert to its “highest” level on February 23 after the number of infections nearly tripled over the weekend to 556.

Based on reporting by dpa, Reuters, AP, AFP, RFE/RL’s Radio Free Afghanistan, RFE/RL’s Armenian Service, and RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal.

END

ISRAEL/CORONAVIRUS/JERUSALEM POST/UPDATE SUNDAY

Second coronavirus case in Israel is confirmed but it is from the Dream Princess . Israel is still safe..they throw out all citizens of Asian descent…putting them on a plane back home.

Second coronavirus case in Israel confirmed, as panic increases

Netanyahu: ‘International coronavirus quarantine list may grow’

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Health Minister Ya'akov Litzman discuss the dangers of coronavirus on February 23 (photo credit: GPO)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Health Minister Ya’akov Litzman discuss the dangers of coronavirus on February 23
(photo credit: GPO)
A second Israeli who returned to Israel on Friday from the Diamond Princess cruise ship has tested positive Sunday for the virus, according to Sheba Medical Center. The individual is in isolation at the hospital.
The medical center said that the individual did not contract the virus in Israel.

The news comes as hundreds of Israelis have called a special hotline focused on treating people suspected of having contracted coronavirus, according to Magen David Adom. The Health Ministry has canceled upcoming trips to Poland for thousands of Israeli students, and only Israelis will run in Friday’s Tel Aviv Marathon.

A mild panic had erupted across Israel on Sunday following an announcement on Saturday that nine members of a large group of South Koreans who had been in the country from February 8 to 15 were diagnosed with coronavirus and might have had the virus while in Israel. The South Koreans travelled across the country, from the North to the South with stops in Jerusalem and Bethlehem, among other places.

At the start of the week, 200 Israeli students were in isolation after reporting being exposed to the tourists.

“We are prepared to prevent the spread of the coronavirus in Israel,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated during an emergency meeting at the Health Ministry in Tel Aviv Sunday in an effort to calm the country. “We are conducting assessments every day and I will appoint a team of ministers to meet on a daily basis to address this major challenge.”

He said that the government is constantly reviewing its policy and adjusting it to adapt to evolving circumstances, including monitoring entry into Israel from other countries.

On Sunday, the Health Ministry sent a memo to citizens sharing where the South Koreans went and reviewing guidelines for if people came into contact with the pilgrims, including putting themselves under a 14-day period of isolation.

The ministry also recommends that if signs of illness – fever over 38 degrees Celsius, cough or other respiratory symptoms develop – individuals should seek medical attention.

The Health Ministry added that as of Sunday anyone who has been in South Korea or Japan for the last 14 days must be in house isolation until 14 days have elapsed from the time of their departure from these countries.

Japan and South Korea were added to a growing list of countries that the ministry has labelled as contagious and is requiring travelers who return from them to enter quarantine. The other countries are China, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore and Thailand.

As of Sunday, the entry of non-residents or citizens of Israel who were in South Korea during the 14 days prior to their arrival in Israel was prevented. As of Monday, this directive will also apply for those arriving from Japan.

In addition, anyone who has been in Taiwan, Italy or Australia for the past 14 days and who develops disease symptoms should be checked according to the guidelines listed on the Health Ministry website. And anyone returning from these countries will not have to enter isolation.

Today, we added Australia and Italy to the list of countries from which returning travelers will be required to enter quarantine,” the prime minister said. “As necessary, we will add other countries to the list.

“I said that over-preparation is better than lack of preparation,” he continued. “To date, Israel has been more stringent than any other country, and we will continue to do what is necessary to prevent the spread of the virus in Israel.”

He called on the public to show “maximum responsibility” by adhering to the policies that the Health Ministry lays out.

“It must be clear: Anyone who is required to be in isolation must be,” Health Minister Ya’acov Litzman reiterated Sunday. He said that now is not the time for travel abroad.

The MDA hotline that launched Saturday night under the guidance of the Health Ministry is reachable through MDA’s 101 hotline and is meant to support the growing number of Israelis who have been in contact with a coronavirus patient, who is suspected of being infected with the virus, or has symptoms such as fever, cough or other respiratory symptoms.

When a person calls, a medic or paramedic answers the call and determines whether to join a doctor into the call, who will then decide how to proceed with medical care. Options for next steps include sending an ambulance to evacuate the patient to a hospital or sending a paramedic to the person’s home to take a blood sample for evaluation at Sheba Medical Center’s laboratory.

In addition, according to MDA, so far dozens of paramedics have undergone dedicated training on how to collect samples from potential patients in order to test for coronavirus. They have also been trained in staying fully protected against the infection themselves while taking these samples.

On Sunday alone, MDA trained an additional 70 MDA paramedics at its Paramedic Education Center in Ramat Gan. Participants practiced taking patient samples while wearing full anti-contamination kits.

Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan warned Sunday of potential election interference that would somehow be caused by the virus.

“I have instructed the police to prepare for a situation in which the coronavirus could disrupt the coming elections, even in the form of fake news being spread that could cause panic in some areas, causing some to stay home on election day,” Erdan said, noting that such election interference would be considered a criminal offense.

The Israel Airport Authority called an emergency meeting at which its head, Pinchas Idan, informed staff that the airport was implementing a hiring freeze until the summer season and that there would be no raises or promotions until further notice. Some staff, he said, would likely have to reduce their hours to part-time.

“During this time we must work hard and carefully,” he said, “and hope things will improve soon.”

In addition, the Education Ministry was forced to cancel 29 upcoming school trips to Poland for some 3,087 students who were scheduled to travel between February 23 and March 4, until further notice.

The Tel Aviv Marathon, which is scheduled to take place on Friday, will continue, according to the Tel Aviv Municipality. However, only Israelis will take part in the event. The Jerusalem Marathon is also facing possible cancellation.

Some Knesset members and candidates lashed out at the government over its handling of the coronavirus.

Gesher head Orly Levy-Abecassis accused the country of not being prepared to handle the crisis despite its “supposed regular preparation” for attacks – including biological warfare attacks – by terrorist regimes or hostile nations.

Former president of the Israeli Medical Association, Prof. Leonid Eidelman, who is running on Yisrael Beytenu’s list, also attacked the establishment: “The corona panic seems to be gaining momentum,” he said. “Talk about forced hospitalization, eliminating various tourists or certain theories of biological warfare may be helpful to some politicians, but they will not help the public in real time.

“Speaking as someone who knows from the inside, the Israeli health system suffers from the highest over occupancy rate among OECD countries and would not be able to hospitalize these sick people even if police forced them to be hospitalized,” he concluded.

President Reuven Rivlin, however, did not cancel his diplomatic plans as a result of the virus. He arrived in Australia on Friday and is expected to spend a week there visiting Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.

Following the instructions of the Health Ministry regarding those returning from Australia, the spokesperson of the President’s Residence gave the following statement: “The entourage from [the President’s Residence] in Australia is not expected to change its planned schedule at present of the president’s official visit. The director-general is in touch with the director-general of the ministry on the subject, and we will update on any change that is necessary.”

END

IRAN/ CHINA/SOUTH KOREA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/MONDAY

Very scary Iran’s death toll is supposedly reached 50.  As I stated to you on Friday these guys have no capability of controlling the virus

(zerohedge)

Iranian Lawmaker Says 50 Have Died From Coronavirus Outbreak In Qom

Heading into yet another week where headlines across the world are dominated by the coronavirus outbreak, it looks like the market has finally accepted the fact that this virus isn’t ‘just the flu’ as US stocks look headed for a sharp drop at the open, set to build on their losses from last week.

Following the release of the latest batch of infection numbers from China and South Korea, the focus Monday morning has shifted back to Iran, where the true scope of the outbreak is rapidly becoming apparent: News reports claim the death toll in the city of Qoms has already hit 50. If true, that would be far and away the largest number of deaths in a single country outside mainland China (at least, that we know of). Iran alone has seemingly tripled the death toll ex-China overnight (even if the deaths haven’t yet been counted by Johns Hopkins, SCMP or the other running databases that have been cataloguing the crisis).

As far as ‘confirmed’ cases go, the toll remains at 12, still higher than any other single country ex-China. At least that’s what the Iranian Health Ministry is insisting on.

But according to a lawmaker who spoke to the Associated Press, the ‘true’ death toll is 50:

A staggering 50 people have died in the Iranian city of Qom from the new coronavirus this month, a lawmaker was quoted as saying on Monday, even as the Health Ministry insisted only 12 deaths have been recorded to date in the country.

The new death toll reported by the Qom representative, Ahmad Amiriabadi Farahani, is significantly higher than the latest number of nationwide confirmed cases of infections that Iranian officials had reported just a few hours earlier, which stood at 12 deaths out of 47 cases, according to state TV.

Health Ministry spokesman Iraj Harirchi rejected the Qom lawmaker’s claims, insisting the death toll from the virus remains at 12.

However, he raised the number of confirmed cases from the virus to 61. Some 900 other suspected cases are being tested, he said.

“No one is qualified to discuss this sort of news at all,” Haririchi said,adding that lawmakers have no access to coronavirus statics and could be mixing figures on deaths related to other diseases like the fluwith the new virus, which first emerged in China in December.

While the health ministry insists that lawmakers don’t have access to officials statistics, we suspect that a representative of a community would know roughly how many people have succumbed to the virus in his community. That is not at all far-fetched. The same lawmaker said another 250 have been quarantined in Qoms, which, based on the death toll, sounds like not nearly enough.

And of course, ‘mixing up deaths with the flu’ is an excuse we’ve seen before.

Still, the number of deaths compared to the number of confirmed infections from the virus is higher in Iran than in any other country, including China and South Korea, where the outbreak is far more widespread.

Farahani, the lawmaker from Qom, was quoted in local media saying more than 250 people are quarantined in the city, which is a popular place of religious study for Shiites from across Iran and other countries. He spoke following a session in parliament in Tehran on Monday, and was quoted by ILNA and other semi-official news agencies.

When it comes to disappointing news about the outbreak, Iran isn’t alone. We also saw some more numbers out of South Korea last night: another 231 confirmed cases brings the total to 833.

In other news, the world is still waiting for an update from the WHO team about what’s happening on the ground in Wuhan. They’re late to deliver their briefing, which was supposed to start at 6.

Instead, we bring you this report from the Epoch Times’ Jennifer Zeng, in keeping with Zeng’s recent record of signal-boosting some of the most important stories from on-the-ground in Wuhan.

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

Now we know why so many extra cops were deployed to . More than 1K local police got infected with
【內幕】湖北公安系統逾千人染疫 多地馳援 https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/20/2/22/n11888526.htm  via @dajiyuan

【内幕】湖北公安系统逾千人染疫 多地驰援 – 大纪元

武汉肺炎持续蔓延,武汉各地医院、监狱相继发生感染事件。大纪元获悉,湖北省公安人员至少有逾千人感染了新冠病毒肺炎。但外界认为,实际感染人数应该比这还多。

epochtimes.com

Meanwhile, Stars and Stripes, the official chronicler of America’s military, published a report about American soldiers at Camp Walker – a base wearing face masks and gloves toting thermometers instead of guns.

We’ll be back shortly with more coronavirus updates from around the world.

END

6.Global Issues

CANADA

this is not good:  They may have to quarantine Montreal and Vancouver

(City news)

Passenger on flight from Montreal to Vancouver tests positive for coronavirus

by News Staff

POSTED FEB 23, 2020 5:28 PM MST

Air Canada has confirmed that a passenger who flew on one of its flights from Montreal to Vancouver on Valentine’s Day has tested positive for the coronavirus.

The airline says it was advised on Feb. 22 by health authorities about the passenger.

“Air Canada is working with public health authorities and has taken all recommended measures,” read a brief statement from the airline.

The British Columbia Ministry of Health says everyone in proximity to the woman during her travels has already been notified, stressing the information released by Air Canada does not mean there is a new case in the province.

end

Michael Every:

he has now shifted his base case to ugly

(Michael Every)

Rabobank: Our Coronavirus Base Case Is Rapidly Shifting From “Bad” To “Ugly”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Regular readers will know that our four projected COVID-19 scenarios were “Bad, Worse, Ugly, and Unthinkable”. Current news today suggests risks that the base case is rapidly shifting from “Bad”, meaning only China is impacted, to “Ugly”, where both emerging Asia and developed economies see soaring infection rates and deaths.

After all, following Vietnam, Iran now has eight deaths and an uncertain number of cases, prompting schools and universities to closed and the borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan to be sealed from the other side. For an economy already being crushed by sanctions, this is all that it needed. More worrying for markets, South Korea (with a GDP of over USD1 trillion) has also been swamped by hundreds of new cases, a 20-fold leap in just five days, and, as in China, is seeing the highest-level emergency declared, cities on lock-down, gatherings and travel bans in place, and the national assembly additionally suspended. Samsung has had to shutter at least one factory, in the city of Gumi. The Asian economy, already reeling, it about to suffer another major kick.

Worse, in Europe there also are over 160 cases in a cluster in northern Italy, with three deaths so far, and the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, the industrial and financial heartlands, in both panic and lockdown. Venice’s Carnival has been cancelled, and so was a recent fashion show. Italy is 11% of Eurozone GDP, and those two regions are 30% of Italy’s GDP. For a Eurozone already close to recession, that shock could well be more than enough to generate a downturn. Once again, we also see what we said we would in our recent virus special report: a “China-style” response: yesterday a train from Venice to Munich was stopped at the Austrian border because of fears that two passengers on board may have had the virus. So much for Schengen? Recall that the origins of the world “quarantine” come from Venice in an earlier phase of globalisation, and refer to the *40* days sailors had to stay on a visiting ship to prove they were not carrying an infectious disease. No just-in-time supply chains in those days though.

Meanwhile, China is saying the virus may not have started in the seafood market; hot-headed Chinese social media is saying it might have been America who started it; experts are saying COVID-19 can linger on surfaces for nine days, and is airborne, and can be passively carried with no symptoms for up to *27* days, nearly double the 14 days previously thought; and other reports show that false negative tests are a serious issue, with at least one confirmed case of a patient being tested negative twice and then switching to positive. As the WHO, which has urged us all to travel as normal until now, “because markets”, wails, the window to stop this becoming a global pandemic is closing.

By contrast, China is doing its best to say that all is well. Unsurprisingly, since Party Chairman Xi Jinping placed his hand-picked people in charge, new cases have dropped sharply. Optimists see this means the lockdowns have worked – which means more global lockdowns must now be priced in, however; pessimists suggest data goal-seeking is playing a role here. However, deaths have not fallen yet, with another 97 yesterday raising the overall fatality rate worryingly (and one study of 53 Wuhan patients suggests a 61.5% fatality rate for those with any co-morbidity factor such as diabetes and/or heart or lung disease).

Just as unsurprisingly, Xi has publicly promised China will have beaten the virus by the end of March, and that the overall economic goals for 2020 are still in place, even as right now we are still basically flat-lining as shown by traffic congestion, pollution, and property sales. As we have already covered in recent weeks, the only way for BAU to return ASAP is for everyone to start travelling and gathering and working again: which is exactly how the virus will spread, especially after we have been told there is a 27-day latent period, as well as a clear tendency of asymptomatic carriers, and even more so now it has legs outside China too. Even so, people are being urged back to work as eagerly as they were being told to lock themselves in at home just two weeks ago.

Equally unsurprisingly, the PBOC, who have already lowered rates 10bp, are making clear that COVID-19 “will be short-lived and will not change the country’s sound economic fundamentals”. With several reports suggesting up to 85% of China’s small business are going to run out of cash within three months, and many within weeks, its banks riddled with bad loans and already under-capitalised, and the state clearly about to embark on another massive debt-splurge to build more infrastructure to keep to a set GDP number regardless, even when China does re-emerge from COVID-19 it will be sagging under an even more unsustainable debt load, and the state will be playing an even larger economic role. It’s also unclear if foreign firms will be as willing to be embedded in a long, China-centric supply chain regardless, making USD inflows less likely; and all of those issues above will mean the weaker CNY we have referred to for years. It is no surprise we are through 7 again; the larger surprise is that we are not closer to 7.20.

More broadly, of course, the “Ugly” scenario is seeing US Treasury yields test critical support levels. The 10-year is now at 1.47% and another leg down will see us in whole new territory. Likewise, the USD is on a roll upwards and threatening to push higher: imagine if European virus cases spread, the same happens in Japan, and China cannot reopen as planned. And imagine what a stronger USD on top of this virus backdrop will mean for emerging-market USD borrowers. Ugly indeed.

Such is the news-flow that I hardly have time to relate that Bernie Sanders handily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, leaving Joe “White Walker” Biden in a poor second place and Mike Bloomberg looking as user-friendly as his terminals are. That makes Bernie the clear presidential nominee front-runner at this stage – and makes many Never-Trumpers into Rather-Trumpers, I would imagine. And imagine if Bernie’s plans for free healthcare for all intersect with a virus outbreak in the US….(on which note, please see our recent Through The Looking Glass report imagining a Sanders presidency).

 

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0822 DOWN .0023 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.36 UP 0.175 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2890   DOWN   0.0063  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3287 UP .0070 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 23 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0822 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.28% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 487.93 POINTS OR 1.79%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL EWS 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 487.93 POINTS OR 1.79%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 2.25% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 92.41  POINTS OR 0.39%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1681.10

silver:$18.77-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.40% !!! DOWN 8 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.84 DOWN 7  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 99.60 UP 33 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.23% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.06%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.23%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.97 UP 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 76 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.48% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.45% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0855  UP     .0011 or 11 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.56 DOWN .970 OR YEN UP 97  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2922 DOWN .0030 POUND DOWN 30  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 65 basis points to 1.3282

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0296    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0332  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1179 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.06%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 10 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.37 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.83 DOWN 9 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.26 UP 0  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 134.58  3.26%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 544.09 POINTS OR 4.01%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 237.85 POINTS 3.94%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 402.70 POINTS or 4.07%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 1345.43 POINTS OR 5.43%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 50.75 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 55.43 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    63.37  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 1.42 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 142 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.48 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  51.39//

 

 

BRENT :  56.10

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.37..down 11 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.83..down 8 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.12929 ( DOWN 25    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.73 DOWN .830 (YEN UP 83 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.28 UP 2 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2929 DOWN 25  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.1136//DEADLY  to Turkey

 

 

the Russian rouble 65.31   down 1.36 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 136 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3390 down 73 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0296  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0368 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.49%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 1,029.70 POINTS OR 3.55%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 3552.31 POINTS OR 3.71%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  24.14 CLOSED UP 7.06

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.679%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Covid Contagion Sparks Carnage As Stocks Wipe Out All 2020 Gains

Well, that escalated quickly…

As stocks finally woke up from their complacent sleep and began to catch down to the reality in bonds, FX, and commodities…

Source: Bloomberg

The most ironic thing about all of this utter cognitive dissonance over deadly-virus supply-chain disruptions is that China is actually outperforming US and Europe since the crisis really began…

Source: Bloomberg

High-tech, small cap Chinese stocks surged overnight as large cap stumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

South Korean stocks crashed as the virus counts exploded higher (today’s drop was biggest since Oct 2018)…

Source: Bloomberg

But as Italian news escalated, things escalated and all European equity indices fell back into the red…Italian stocks crashed over 5% – the worst day since June 2016’s Brexit vote…

Source: Bloomberg

And ugly day in US markets today as complacency finally snapped…

Nasdaq Composite saw its biggest point loss in history (bigger than during the dotcom collapse) and Dow saw its 2nd biggest point drop in history (1175pts on 2/8/18).

Technical levels saw some support with Nasdaq bouncing at its 50DMA…

S&P 500 closed red for 2020…

Dow bounced and tried hard but failed to hold 28,000 at the close…

 

VIX surged to its highest since Jan 2019, topping 26…

 

Airlines crashed to their lowest since October with the biggest daily drop since June 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks were battered as rates plunged, biggest daily drop since Aug 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks suffered their worst day since Dec 2018

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled today but after the 1430 jerk lower in gold, bonds were sold…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields crashed to record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

And while 10Y yields did not make a record intraday low, it got very close…

Source: Bloomberg

And the yield curve crashed to its flattest since early October…

Source: Bloomberg

Traders are in full panic – Please Fed Save Us – mode, pushing expectations to 2.3 rate cuts now in 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar mirrored Friday’s trading in an odd pattern…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan has fallen to a key level…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were sold overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin slipped back below $10k…

Source: Bloomberg

PMs were positive today and crude and copper sold hard…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold has a strong day but was clubbed like a baby seal around 1430ET margin call time

 

Gold and JPY fell together then tracked each other perfectly, as if The BoJ decided that record lows in JPY against gold was time to step in…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, gold in yuan is very close to its record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI plunged to a $50 handle injtraday before being magically levitated in the afternoon…

Gold is leading year-to-date, with bonds close behind and the USD higher…but stocks ended red…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, some might say today’s collapse came right on time…

Source: Bloomberg

Or was this crash exacerbated by the surge in Sanders over the weekend?

Source: Bloomberg

 end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Futures Plunge, Gold Soars As Covid-19 Contagion Craters Complacency

After a weekend in which attention is now firmly focused on the accelerating spread of the coronavirus outside of China (whose epidemic numbers have become a bigger joke than the country’s GDP), with Italy now a supercluster of new cases that has sealed off Northern Italy and threatens to shut down Schengen, traders are back to their desks and for once, it appears that central bankers can’t print their way out of this particular pandemic mess.

US equity futures are accelerating their catch down to reality…

Dow Futures are down 400 points…

Spot gold is up over 2%, breaking $1680…

WTI Crude is also plunging, back to a $51 handle…

And after JPY’s recent collapse, Nikkei futures are down 500 points in early trading…

And therefore, as always, The BoJ is out with its standard boiler-plate  – we’ll puke more money and buy more of everything – plan…

The Bank of Japan will be fully prepared to take necessary action to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on the world’s third-largest economy, its Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said. Kuroda said there was no major change to the BOJ’s projection that Japan’s economy would keep recovering moderately thanks to an expected rebound in global growth around mid-year.

He also repeated the view that, while the central bank stands ready to ease monetary policy further “without hesitation”, it saw no immediate need to act.

But Kuroda said the BOJ would scrutinize developments on the virus outbreak carefully, since the damage to Japan’s economy could be profound if the epidemic is prolonged and disrupts supply chains.

First of all, just how is printing money going to fix the virus; and second, what is this “moderate recovery” he is talking about after the -1.6% GDP print?!

Finally, we do note that Japan is closed for the Emperor’s Birthday celebration so markets are especially illiquid… and cash bond trading remains closed. However, 10Y bond futures are surging, implying a  1.41% yield…

Nevertheless, it appears, as we noted above, investors are starting to wake up to the fact that central bankers can’t print vaccines… and you can only swallow so many blue pills before the red one becomes too tempting.

Time for a phone call…

TheCreditBubble@TheCreditBubble

Tfw futures are down over 1%

View image on Twitter
END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/this morning

Dow Futures Down 900 Points, Erase YTD Gains, Below ‘Iran Missile Strike’ Spike Lows

Well it took long enough for stocks to wake up to the reality priced into bonds, FX, and commodities…

but it’s escalating fast now…

BTFD?

end

THEN THIS AFTERNOON:

Dow Dumps 1000 Points, Back Below 28k As Stocks Break Key Technical Levels

The Dow just broke below 28,000, falling over 1000 points from Friday’s close…

…as all the major US equity indices have broken back below critical moving-average support levels.

And Treasury yields are crashing to record lows…

And finally, as The Dow crashes into red for 2020, gold is soaring…

Where are the dip-buyers???

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

CORONAVIRUS/USA PATIENTS/DIAMOND PRINCESS (OFF OF JAPAN)

UPDATE USA//

Trump furious at bureaucrats who let coronavirus patients fly home against his orders

(zerohedge)

Trump ‘Furious’ At Rogue Bureaucrats Who Let Coronavirus Patients Fly Home Without Telling Him

President Trump was reportedly livid after 14 Diamond Princess passengers infected with coronavirus were flown back to the United States without notifying him and against his wishes, according to the Washington Post.

Trump and his coronavirus task force were told last Saturday that Americans quarantined for weeks aboard the luxury cruise ship would be brought home on two chartered planes, but that infected patients or those with symptoms would remain in Japan. That decision was overruled without Trump’s knowledge, according to the report.

Trump was briefed on the decision and agreed that healthy passengers should not be on the plane with sick ones, three senior administration officials said. But the State Department and a top U.S. health official ultimately decided to bring back the 14 Americans who tested positive for the virus on the planes and place them in isolation — without informing the president first.

Trump learned of the decision after the fact and was reportedly angry that he wasn’t consulted first – as the decision “could damage his administration’s handling of the response,” according to the report.

“Some members of the task force were not told in advance that the infected people would be placed on the plane and learned that only after the plane was on its way back to the United States.”

State department defends

“It’s important to remember this was an emerging and unusual circumstance,” said Principal Deputy Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Consular Affairs, Ian Brownlee.

 

A plane carrying American passengers, who were recently released from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan, arrives at Travis Air Force Base in California on February 16

“We had 328 people on buses, a plan to execute and we received lab results on people who were otherwise asymptomatic, un-ill people on a bus on the way to the airport,” he added. “The people on the ground did exactly the right thing…in bringing them home.”

Except, Ian, we’ve known for more than a week that coronavirus tests aren’t sufficiently reliable– often showing false-negatives, while so-called asymptotic ‘super-spreaders’ are walking around infecting people.

Eleven (OUT OF 14) of the evacuated Diamond Princess passengers deemed ‘high risk’ have been confirmed to have coronavirus. They, along with a twelfth passenger, are being held at the National Quarantine Center in Omaha, Nebraska, while another passenger was sent to the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit because they had developed symptoms of the virus and had an underlying condition, according to the Daily Mail.

END
Does Mnuchin still have all his marbles? Washington still expects China to meet its trade deal commitments despite the huge outbreak globally
(zerohedge)

Mnuchin: Washington Still Expects China To Meet Trade-Deal Commitments Despite Outbreak

After President Trump once again hinted that the Chinese might have trouble delivering on their trade deal commitments in a tweet last week, his Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, has apparently contradicted his boss.

Following this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Riyadh, where the world’s 20 largest economies promised to keep a close watch on the outbreak but stopped short of calling it a downside risk to the global economy, probably for fear of spooking the market (these are the finance ministers, after all), Mnuchin sat down for an interview with Reuters.

The contents of that interview were released overnight, and perhaps the most notable comments were related to trade.

Mnuchin struck an ‘optimistic’ tone about the outlook for a US-UK trade deal, something that has been the subject of much speculation following Boris Johnson’s decision to defy Washington and allow Huawei equipment to be used in the construction in the UK’s 5G networks.

Reports claimed that President Trump berated Johnson during a ‘diplomatic’ phone call over the decision, and even hinted that it could impact the trade deal (of course, we suspect Johnson knows what he’s doing, and will use Huawei as a chit during negotiations).

Trump’s personal feelings aside, the Treasury secretary, a noted dove on global trade, believes a deal will be struck soon.

“I’m quite optimistic. I think the prime minister and the president have a very good relationship,” Mnuchin told an audience at the Chatham House think tank in London.

Mnuchin said he ‘had breakfast’ with outgoing foreign secretary Sajid Javid, and “we’re focused on trying to get this done this year because we think it’s important to both of us” (though we suspect Javid is currently occupied by his job search).

And most importantly, when asked about the UK’s digital services tax which would effectively target US tech giants, Mnuchin said “the US feels very strongly that any tax that is designed specifically on digital companies is a discriminatory tax and is not appropriate,” Mnuchin said.

To us, that sounds like a Sphinx-like warning: When it comes to the US-UK trade negotiations “everything is on the table” (as Trump once said) – and nothing is assured.

Speaking of trade, Mnuchin told Reuters that he doesn’t expect the coronavirus outbreak to have a material impact on the ‘Phase 1’ trade deal, although – and this is key – “that could change as more data becomes available in coming weeks.”

In other words, the secretary seems to be saying that the US doesn’t expect China to have any trouble meeting its commitments, though that could change, given how things are going.

At any rate, Mnuchin didn’t offer any suggestion that the US would grant Beijing any flexibility. And furthermore, he said that the outbreak could halt negotiations for a ‘Phase 2′ deal, another nugget of bearish trade news.

Here’s more from Reuters’ writeup of the interview:

Mnuchin, in an interview with Reuters late on Sunday, cautioned against jumping to conclusions about the impact of what he called a “human tragedy” on the global economy, or on companies’ supply chain decisions, saying it was simply too soon to know.

China was focused on the virus for now, he said, but Washington still expected Beijing to live up to its commitments to buy more U.S. products and services under the trade deal.

“I don’t expect that this will have any ramifications on Phase 1. Based on everything that we know, and where the virus is now, I don’t expect that it’s going to be material,” he said.

“Obviously that could change as the situation develops. Within the next few more weeks, we’ll all have a better assessment as there’s more data around the rate of the virus spreading.”

Mnuchin met late on Sunday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a senior U.S. administration official said, but gave no details about the meeting.

Mnuchin acknowledged the outbreak could also delay the start of negotiations on deepening the trade deal with Beijing and reaching a Phase 2 agreement, but said he was not worried about that at this point.

“If we get the right deal before the election, that’s great. If we get the right deal after the election, that’s great. We don’t feel any pressure one way or another,” he said, referring to the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election, in which President Donald Trump is seeking reelection.

There’s some interesting stuff happening in the Trump administration right now, and the message on trade is certainly still being massaged. But the tensions we’re seeing here appear to be reflected in the broader US-China relationship since the outbreak began – that is to say, the virus seems to have eroded mutual trust even further.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

They should throw this biased judge off the bench.  Roger Stone did nothing wrong except bloviate a bit

Trump will pardon him once Judge Jackson makes here decision whether to have a new trial or not

(Julie Kelly/AmGreatness.com)

Lady Justice Spurns Her Blinders For Trump Associates

Authored by Julie Kelly via AmGreatness.com,

People like Justice Amy Berman Jackson, who claim to hold the greatest devotion to our institutions, who purport to cherish the rule of law above all else, are the ones responsible for systematically demolishing it all.

She claim sounded like something from Representative Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) or Rachel Maddow or any number of Russian collusion propagandists: