FEB 25//DOW LOSES 879 POINTS/BANKERS CONTINUE TO RAID ON OTC/LBMA EXPIRY WEEK//GOLD DOWN $26.10//SILVER DOWN 67 CENTS/

THE COMEX DATA IS COMPLETE EXCEPT FOR VOLUME// I WILL NOT DO INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

THE CURRENCY/INTEREST RATE DATA IS FINAL EXCEPT FOR 4 PM

 

FINALIZED!!

ALL MY REPORTS WILL BE DELIVERED BUT NOT AT MY REGULAR TIME SLOT

 

I UNDERSTAND THE URGENCY ON MANY MATTERS AND AS SUCH I WILL REPORT ON THEM

HERE IS WHAT I HAVE SO FAR:

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD:$1648.40  DOWN $26.10    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

Silver:$18.24  DOWN $.67  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

Gold :

 

 

WE NOW ENTER OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK:

COMEX EXPIRES: TOMORROW FEB 25

OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRES FEB 28

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  0/35

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,672.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/24/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 02/26/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 9
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 21
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 17
737 C ADVANTAGE 17
800 C MAREX SPEC 1
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 35 35
MONTH TO DATE: 7,980

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 35 NOTICE(S) FOR 3500 OZ (0.1088 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7980 NOTICES FOR 798000 OZ  (24.821 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEB

 

 

2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 919 for 1,455,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  9596 down 60 dollars

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: 9376  down 256 dollars

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

INVENTORY:  933.94 TONNES

WITH SILVER DOWN 67 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY: 363.433 MILLION OZ..

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 870 CONTRACTS FROM 244,171 UP TO 244,705, (FEB 25/2020)A NEW ALL TIME COMEX RECORD.  THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 35 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE SURPASSED OUR PREVIOUS RECORD AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  1306 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1306 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1306 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1306 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.53 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 35 CENT ADVANCE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.455    MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 35 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE NO DOUBT UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 2176 CONTRACTS. OR 10.88 MILLION OZ…..   WE HAD NO LONG LIQUIDATION AND WE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING, JUST A HUGE ACCUMULATION OF SILVER LONG CONTRACTS ENTERING BOTH EXCHANGES.

 

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION AND THAT EXPLAINS THE RISE IN COMEX OI DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

24,207 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,207 CONTRACTS) OR 121.04 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1512 CONTRACTS OR 7.564 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 121.04 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          302.65 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     121.04 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 870, DESPITE THE STRONG 35 CENT ADVANCE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /MONDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1306 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A  STRONG SIZED  SIZED:  2176 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE 35 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

i.e 1306 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 870 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A STRONG 35 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.91 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.221 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 174% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR  10,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.445 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2074 CONTRACTS TO 728,362 AND MOVING FURTHER FROM  OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE ADVANCE OF $28.40 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// WE, MOST LIKELY HAD TINY BANKER SHORT COVERING BUT NO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THAT ADVANCE IN PRICE.  TOGETHER WITH THE HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EFP’S (SEE BELOW) OUR BANKER FRIENDS BASICALLY COULD NOT FLEECE ANY APPRECIABLE LONGS FROM ANY GOLD ARENA AND THUS OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES!  

 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 16,093 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 16.093; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 11,308.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 728,362,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,019 CONTRACTS: 2,074 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 16,093 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 14,019 CONTRACTS OR 1,401,900 OZ OR 43.60 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF $28.40 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 43.60  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (GAIN $28.40). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AGAIN AS WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (16,093) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN COMEX OI.(2,074 OI):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  14,019 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING BUT NO LONG LIQUIDATION:  JUST A HUGE INCREASE IN TOTAL OI WITH MOST OF THE GAIN COMING FROM EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 152,514 CONTRACTS OR 15,251,400 oz OR 474.37 TONNES (16 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9532 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 474.37 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 434.37/3550 x 100% TONNES =12.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   1004.56  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            434.37  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2074 DESPITE THE VERY STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK MONDAY($28.40)) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 16,093 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 16,093 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 14,019 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

16,093 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  2074 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 43.60 TONNES). AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $28.40 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

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OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 870 CONTRACTS FROM 244,535 UP TO 244,705 AND A NEW  OUR  COMEX RECORD  (SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

EFP ISSUANCE 1306

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  1306:  AND MAY: 0; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1306 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 870 CONTRACTS TO THE 1306 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2176 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.88 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.455 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE STRONG 35 CENT RISE IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1306 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.18 POINTS OR 0.60%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 72.35 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 781.33 POINTS OR 3.34%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.58%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0152 /Oil UP TO 51.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.51 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0152 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0250 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW COMPLETE PHASE I WORKING ON PHASE II..

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

SOUTH KOREA/CORONAVIRUS//UPDATE

Response coordinator to the South Korean virus epidemic commits suicide as cases near 1000 and 11 deaths

(zero hedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/CORONAVIRUS

Japan admits that the virus cannot be stopped:  it rolls out a new policy which will treat only the most serious cases.  The mild ones will treat themselves at home.

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

I)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS

We now have evidence that not only prisons did not count the coronavirus deaths but also nursing homes.  The real deaths inside Wuhan is hugh higher than reported

(zerohedge)

II)CHINA/ECONOMICS/CORONAVIRUS

this is to be expected:  Chinese business conditions crash the most ever on record

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

I)ITALY/CORONAVIRUS/TUESDAY UPDATE/BAHRAIN/IRAN/SOUTH KOREA/CROATIA

It sure looks like Italy is having its hands full trying to contain the virus:  huge outbreak there.  South Korea is in a mess.

your update

II)AUDI/GERMANY

Audi suspends electric vehicle production due to battery shortages. You will see these types of production problems escalate
(zerohedge)

III)Michael Every’s take on the coronavirus

a must read..
(courtesy Michael Every)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

I)ISRAEL/SYRIA/GAZA

ISRAEL WAS AT ITS WORD:  They took out Islamic jihad militants in both Damascus and Gaza in simultaneous air strikes

(zerohedge

II)TURKEY/SYRIA/RUSSIA

I have no idea why this brain dead ruler wishes to confront the  Russians:  more Turkish troop deaths in Idlib
(zerohedge)

III)ISRAEL GAZA/Netanyahu threatens all out war after 90 rockets fired from Gaza.  The iron dome knocked out the majority ..the rest landed into empty fields or the water.

(zerohedge)

IV)IRAN/CORONAVIRUS

This is interesting:  the Iranian Deputy Health Minister has tested positive for the coronavirus. I wonder how many of his cabinet did he infect

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Kranzler: gold is signaling a financial system disaster: he is right.

(Dave Kranzler/GATA)

ii)who smashed gold yesterday afternoon  using almost 4 billion dollars of paper gold:  the BIS

THE OFFICIAL SECTOR  OR CENTRAL BANKS’ PROXY FOR THE ATTACKS: THE BIS

Chris Powell

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Our uSA consumer is in big trouble as subprime credit card delinquencies rise to record highs.  Also subprime auto loans are in trouble

Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

b)Richmond Fed business survey crashes in February.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)USA/CORONAVIRUS

Why do we have the CDC tested only 400 USA citizens as compared to thousands in other countries.  Does the USA have a shortage of kits?

(zerohedge)

 

b)It is not only pharmaceuticals that are in jeopardy..just looks what Proctor and Gamble states:

Over 17,000 products are potentially impacted by the coronavirus

(zerohedge)

c)GE’s slow march towards bankruptcy.  This behemoth has a huge derivative portfolio

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2074 CONTRACTS TO 728,362 MOVING FURTHER FORM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GAIN IN OI WAS SET WITH A STRONG GAIN OF $28.60 IN GOLD PRICING //FRIDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER MOST OF THE OFFERED CONTRACTS  LANDED IN ANOTHER HUGE EFP ISSUANCE,.  THUS WE HAD SMALL BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX BUT NO LONG LIQUIDATION ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE HUGELY IN OPEN INTEREST..

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 16,093 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 16,093,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 16,039 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED 14,019 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 16,093 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2074 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DESPITE A DECREASE  SMALL OF COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS

 

THE BANKERS WERUNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $28.40). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 14,019 CONTRACTS ….(43.60 TONNES) WE HAD MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  14,019 CONTRACTS OR 1,401,900 OZ OR 43.60 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  728,362 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 72.83 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,265 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,265/2200 OR 102.90% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 870 CONTRACTS FROM 243,835 UP TO 244,705 (AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020 ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR FAIR OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 35 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/MONDAY. HOWEVER WE MUST BE COGNIZANT THAT A GOOD NUMBER OF COMEX OI ARE SPREADERS.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

FEB IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 2 CONTRACT SHOWING A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACT//FRIDAY TRADING. WE HAD 1 NOTICES SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR 10,000 OZ OF ADDITIONAL SILVER OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH THEY NEGATED A FIAT BONUS

 

 

March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 15,626 contracts  DOWN TO 53,153

APRIL saw a gain of 43 contracts up to 1046.

MAY had a good 14,318 gain in oi to stand at 141,996.

 

 

 

We, today, had  2 notice(s)  for 10,000, OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 713,206 contracts..volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:

749,574 contracts//high volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

 

FEB 25/2020

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz XX oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
XX oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz XX oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

XX

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
35 notice(s)
 3500 OZ
(0.1088 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
243 contracts
(24300 oz)
0.7558 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7980 notices
798000 OZ
24.821 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had XX dealer entry:

We had XX kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:XX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XXX oz

 

we had XX deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: XXX  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else XXX

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  XX  oz

 

 

we had XX gold withdrawals from the customer account:

total gold withdrawals;  XX  oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS: XX

 

 

 

The front month of February saw its open interest RISE by 26 contracts UP to 278 contracts.  We had 18 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED 44 contracts or an additional 4,400 oz will  stand for delivery in NEW YORK and THUS, THEY REFUSED TO MORPH into London based forwards as well. THEIR SEARCH FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND IS STILL FEVERISH. The March non active contract month saw its OI FALL by 177 contracts DOWN to 1815.  The big April contract month saw its OI FALL by 7802 contracts DOWN to 522,889,.

 

We had 35 notices filed today for 3500 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 35 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7980) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (278 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (35 x 100 oz per contract) equals 822300 OZ OR 25.576 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (7980 x 100 oz)  + (278)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (35 x 100 oz )which equals 817,900 oz standing OR 25.576 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a February delivery month.

 

We GAINED 44 contracts or 4400 oz REFUSED TO LEAVE USA shores.  GENERALLY THESE ARE BANKERS DESPERATELY SEARCHING OUT FOR PHYSICAL METAL TRYING TO PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 37.485 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.440 tonnes

 

total: 155.9023 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 25,645 TONNES SETTLED (includes the 1.0445 tonnes of today)

 

IF WE ADD THE 7 DELIVERY MONTHS: 155.9023  tonnes

 

Thus:

155.9023 tonnes of delivery –

25.645 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

 

=130.257 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 36.6300 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,353,869.021 oz or  42.111 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,177,657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,177657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,663,541.978 oz 269.49 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 25 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
XX oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
XX oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
XXXX oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  291 contracts

1,455,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

we had XX inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: XXX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XX oz

i)we had  XX deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   xx

into everybody else:  xxx

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.92% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/323.167 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  xxx   oz

 

we had xx withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; xxx  oz

We had xx adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.922 million

total dealer + customer silver:  323.167 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 291 x 5,000 oz = 1,455,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (2) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 291 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (2)- number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz equals 1,455,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

We gained 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards and as such negated a fiat bonus 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 289,034 CONTRACTS //volume extremely high

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 219,161 CONTRACTS..,,volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 219,161 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1091 million  OZ  156.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.54% ((FEB 25/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.52% to NAV FEB 25/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.54%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.34 TRADING 15.95///DISCOUNT 2.38

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 25/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 933.94 tonnes

*IN LAST 769 TRADING DAYS: 3.52 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 669 TRADING DAYS: A NET 163.55 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 25//WITH SILVER DOWN 67 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

363.433 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.61/ and libor 6 month duration 1.63

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.61%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.63

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Kranzler: gold is signaling a financial system disaster: he is right.

(Dave Kranzler/GATA)

Dave Kranzler: Gold is signaling a financial system disaster

 Section: 

By Dave Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics, Denver
Monday, February 24, 2020

Gold is signaling that a financial system disaster will hit.

And it’s not just gold. The Fed is already hinting that more money printing is coming. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested at his semi-annual congressional testimony that quantitative easing would be used in the next recession. A couple other Fed officials this week confirmed that the Federal Open Market Committee is preparing to crank up the printing press even more than it has been running since September.

… 

But why does the Fed feel compelled to warn us that more money printing and currency devaluation are coming if, as Powell told Congress, “the economy is in a good place?”

To begin with, money printing is not stimulating economic growth. The economy has been sliding into contraction for quite some time. Since the “repo” operations began, that pace of contraction has increased.

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-signaling-a-financial-system…

END

who smashed gold yesterday afternoon  using almost 4 billion dollars of paper gold:  the BIS

THE OFFICIAL SECTOR  OR CENTRAL BANKS’ PROXY FOR THE ATTACKS: THE BIS

Chris Powell

Who smashed gold this afternoon? Let’s ’round up the usual suspects’

 Section: 

7:52p ET Monday, February 24, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Somebody seems to have dumped a lot of gold derivatives on the market this afternoon, and Zero Hedge estimates it at $3 billion worth and attributes it to the Bank for International Settlements:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-suddenly-hammered-multi-billi…

There may not yet be any public evidence tying this particular attack to the BIS, but whoever did it plainly meant to drive the price down rather than to take profits on a long position, since you don’t take profits by driving the price down all at once but by selling gradually enough not to crash the price.

… 

And the BIS can’t help being one of “the usual suspects” given its many acknowledged interventions throughout history.

For example, in 2005 William R. White, the director of the BIS monetary and economic department, told a BIS conference in Basel, Switzerland, that a primary purpose of international central bank cooperation is “the provision of international credits and joint efforts to influence asset prices (especially gold and foreign exchange) in circumstances where this might be thought useful”:

http://www.gata.org/node/4279

The BIS actually advertises to potential central bank members that its services include secret interventions in the gold market. Here’s a PowerPoint presentation the bank made to prospective central bank members at BIS headquarters in June 2008:

http://www.gata.org/node/11012

Indeed, according to its 2013 annual report, the BIS functions largely as a gold banking and gold market intervention service for its member central banks. On Page 110 of that report the BIS says: “The bank transacts foreign exchange and gold on behalf of its customers, thereby providing access to a large liquidity base in the context of, for example, regular rebalancing of reserve portfolios or major changes in reserve currency allocations. The foreign exchange services of the bank encompass spot transactions in major currencies and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as well as swaps, outright forwards, options, and dual currency deposits (DCDs). In addition, the bank provides gold services such as buying and selling, sight accounts, fixed-term deposits, earmarked accounts, upgrading and refining, and location exchanges.” See:

http://www.gata.org/node/12717

Secret gold market interventions by the BIS have been going on for a long time. A long article in Harper’s magazine in 1983, based on a seemingly unprecedented interview with BIS officials, disclosed that the BIS was constantly intervening in the gold market in secret:

http://www.gata.org/node/8773

GATA consultant Robert Lambourne, probably the only student of the BIS outside central banking itself, documents the bank’s monthly interventions in the gold market by interpreting the footnotes in the bank’s monthly report. Lambourne’s most recent dispatch, analyzing the bank’s monthly report issued January 31, disclosed that the bank’s interventions in the gold market had reached their highest point in nearly a year:

http://gata.org/node/19824

Three years ago GATA asked the BIS to explain its interventions in the gold market — their underlying objectives and their real parties in interest. Of course the bank refused to account for itself:

http://www.gata.org/node/17793

But the BIS doesn’t necessarily rig markets for its own advantage. Rather it acts for its members, which include most central banks, to which the BIS gives cover for market interventions.

It would be nice if mainstream financial news organizations made even a nominal effort to preserve their professional dignity by asking the BIS to account for and explain its interventions and by reporting that the bank won’t explain.

But maybe such journalism is no longer necessary. For can there by anyone who follows the gold market who doesn’t know by now where the out-of-the-blue smashdowns in the monetary metals come from?

And can anyone who follows the gold market not have noticed that these smashdowns have been losing effect since last June?

Really, if people who follow the gold market can’t figure out the purpose and general origin of today’s attack and can’t understand that an attack this brazen signifies profound weakness and possibly depletion of the real metal central banks are prepared to lose to defend their currencies against the once and future international reserve currency — well, any such people should apply for jobs at the Financial Times or Kitco.com.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0152/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0250   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 18.18 POINTS OR 0.60%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 72.35 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 781.33 POINTS OR 3.34%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.0840

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.63/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.39 and Brent: 56.51

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.60%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.98% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.21%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.48: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.07

3k Gold at $1651.60 silver at: 18.40   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 2/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.32

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 56 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.63 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9783 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0605 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.50%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.38% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.84%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1518..

Markets Scramble To Stage “Turnaround Tuesday” But Bad News Keeps Coming

After the Monday Market Mayhem which saw the Dow drop more than 1,000 points, the VIX surge more than 8 points to close above 25 – its biggest jump since the February 2018 VIXtermination event – and prompted a panicked respond from both Trump and Kudlow urging Americans to ‘buy the dip‘, S&P futures jumped in early trading, rising as much as 40 points to 3,260 higher even after Shanghai Composite fell as much as 1.7% and China’s Nasdaq ChiNext tumbled as much as 4.1%.

Some dealers cited a WSJ report on a possible vaccine as helping sentiment, though human tests of the drug are not due until the end of April and results not until July or August. Whatever the cause, E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 bounced 0.7% to pare some of the steep 3.35% loss the cash index suffered overnight. However the initial dip buying euphoria did not last as even more cases were repoted, now in Spain and Austria, and futures faded most gains as fresh concerns about an out of control pandemic hit risk assets.

As a result, US index futures surrendered some of their early advances as a tentative risk-on mood weakened on news that reported cases of infections and deaths continued climbing outside of China and countries including the U.S. issued travel warnings. Home Depot shares climbed after an earnings beat, buoying futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

 

MSCI’s All Country World index was down 0.16%, paring some earlier losses when Asian markets were trading. The index suffered its biggest daily drop in two years on Monday.

There is no question financial markets are coming round to the realization that this particular crisis is likely to have a slightly longer shelf life than many thought was the case a couple of weeks ago,” said CMC Markets strategist Michael Hewson. “For now, there appears little prospect that financial markets look likely to settle down in the short term, which means investors will have to get used to an extended period of uncertainty and volatility.”

The number of confirmed coronavirus infections worldwide has risen to more than 80,000, with attention focusing on South Korea which has become the worst-affected country after China. Overnight South Korea reported a total of 977 cases, up 84 on the day, with a 11th coronavirus-related death reported. Furthermore, South Korea said it would implement containment policy in its 4th largest city, Daegu,. Separate reports noted that South Korea is to draft a supplementary budget as soon as possible; with President Moon saying declaring Daegu as a “special disaster zone” is not enough and vows full budget support.

While global markets stabilized on Tuesday after the previous day’s sharp selloff, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index slumped from an early recovery, down as much as 1.1%, after falling more than 3% on Monday, with stocks in Italy the hardest hit, down as much as 0.9%, extending losses this week to 6%. London’s FTSE 100 fell 0.8% to its lowest level since October. Declines in carmakers, banks and utilities dragged the Stoxx Europe 600 index lower.

Germany reported even more bad news, announcing that exports shrank in Q4, even before the coronavirus pandemic which held back German economic activity in the fourth quarter of last year, confirming that Europe’s largest economy was stagnating even before the coronavirus outbreak began. The Federal Statistics Office said exports fell by 0.2% in the fourth quarter from the third, which meant that net trade took off 0.6 percentage points from gross domestic product growth. The trade outlook remains clouded as the coronavirus epidemic is adding another risk, Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. The Ifo index for export expectations fell in February, with car companies among the most pessimistic, Fuest added.

European and U.S. stocks have suffered their biggest loses since mid-2016 amid fears the coronavirus may be morphing into a pandemic that could cripple global supply chains and wreak far greater economic damage than first thought. The risks are such that bond markets are starting to bet central banks will have to ride to the rescue with new stimulus.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a fourth day, led by the industrials and health-care sectors, as nations sought to keep the coronavirus spread contained. Markets in the region were mixed, with South Korea’s Kospi index and Singapore’s Straits Times Index rising, while Japan’s Topix and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 45% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix sank 3% after reopening following a holiday, and the Shanghai Composite Index posted its first back-to-back losses since before the Lunar New Year holiday.

Erratic market moves suggest investors remain on edge over the economic impact of the virus. The World Health Organization has held off from declaring a global pandemic even as cases surged in South Korea, Italy and Japan. Some traders may be taking encouragement from news about the development of treatments, even if experts warn it would take time to build stocks of medicines. Japan’s health minister said the country plans to recommendFujifilm Holdings Corp.’s Avigan drug to treat the virus.

In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries swung around, after nearing record lows earlier in the session, dropping below 1.35%, before trading roughly flat, which still was down almost 20 bps in just three sessions and paying less than overnight rates. Yields are rapidly approaching the all-time low of 1.321% hit in July 2016. European bonds were mixed, with core yields falling. Benchmark JGB yield falls 4bps to lowest since November. Aussie bonds erase opening gains to trade near unchanged.

The sharp drop in yields, combined with the fact the Fed has far more room to cut interest rates than its peers, kept the U.S. dollar restrained after a run of strong gains.

“Besides a tapering in the geographical spread of the coronavirus or unexpected improvements in key short-term macro indicators, the circuit breaker for these market moves is starting to move towards the U.S. central bank,” Danske Bank said in a note to clients.

In FX, the Japanese yen headed for its biggest three-day gain since October, as concerns over the spread of the coronavirus in South Korea strengthened haven demand. Japan’s currency erased losses after Korean Air said it’s working with health authorities to prevent a spread of the virus after a crew member fell sick. Earlier, South Korea reported 84 new infections for a  total tally of 977, making it the country with most cases outside of China. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 110.47, after earlier reaching as high as 111.04. “Overnight, the JPY was clearly a safe-haven bet as the focus has shifted from China to Europe,” said Stephen Innes, market strategist at AxiCorp Ltd. “JPY loses its haven appeal when the exogenous shock comes from China but not from global risk aversion. With virus fear spreading in Europe, the JPY should, in theory, also benefit from the squeeze on its funding shorts.”

In commodities, gold ran into profit-taking after hitting a seven-year peak overnight, and was last down 0.9% at $1,645.57 an ounce. Oil steadied after shedding nearly 4% on Monday. U.S. crude was up 0.2% at $51.55, while Brent crude firmed 0.4% to $56.51.

Conference Board consumer confidence is due. Home Depot, Salesforce.com and American Tower are among scheduled earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,234.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 410.50
  • MXAP down 1% to 162.62
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 532.02
  • Nikkei down 3.3% to 22,605.41
  • Topix down 3.3% to 1,618.26
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,893.23
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,013.05
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 40,250.32
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 6,866.60
  • Kospi up 1.2% to 2,103.61
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.496%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.0858
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $56.24/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.6 bps to 0.802%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.22%
  • Brent Futures little changed at $56.31/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,653.24
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 99.18

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Iran reported a total of 15 deaths from the coronavirus, the most fatalities outside China. Italy, the outbreak’s epicenter in Europe, said infections in the Lombardy region rose to 206 from 172. The country might seek flexibility on some budget targets
  • Congress is expected to grill U.S. officials this week on the Chinese coronavirus outbreak that the Trump administration has so far kept from taking hold on American soil, even as the spread of the disease to South Korea, Italy and elsewhere rattles markets
  • German companies cut spending for a third quarter at the end of last year, leaving the economy struggling and vulnerable even before the coronavirus outbreak created a fresh threat for global growth
  • A moderate in Angela Merkel’s mold became the clear front-runner to replace her after a vocal conservative contender backed his bid to lead the Christian Democratic Union. Armin Laschet, 58, the premier of North Rhine- Westphalia, won the support of Health Minister Jens Spahn, 39, a move that would likely ease pressure on the German leader to step down early.
  • Traders are ratcheting up their bets on the Bank of Japan cutting rates this year, even as the slide in the yen eases pressure on the export-heavy economy
  • The biggest U.S. stock- and bond-trading firms are expanding their lead over smaller competitors, partly by grabbing market share from struggling European banks
  • Moderna said it has released the first batch of mRNA-1273, the company’s vaccine against the novel coronavirus, for human use. Fujifilm Holdings Corp. rose as much as 8.8% following Japanese Health Minister Katsunobu Kato’s comments over the weekend on the country’s plans to recommend its Avigan drug to treat coronavirus
  • The spread of the coronavirus outbreak to regions from Italy to Iran sparked concerns about a pandemic, with the number of cases worldwide topping 80,000. South Korea reported another 60 cases, bringing its total number of infections to 893. China’s death toll rose to 2,663, an increase of 71
  • The Cboe Volatility Index surged to its highest in more than a year Monday as renewed fears about the coronavirus outbreak battered risk assets. The VIX rose 8 points to close above 25 — its biggest jump since the February 2018 “Volmageddon” meltdown
  • Regaining political independence and freedom from the EU’s legal system will take priority over securing a trade deal by the Dec. 31 deadline, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman, James Slack, told reporters on Monday.
  • Oil held its biggest loss in almost seven weeks as investors attempted to gauge the economic consequences of the fast-spreading coronavirus and whether it would become a global pandemic

Asian equities traded mixed with the overall risk tone seemingly improved compared to yesterday’s global stock rout. US indices closed with sharp losses on Monday over fears regarding the number of growing coronavirus cases outside of China, causing the S&P and Dow to wipe out their YTD gains, with the latter closing lower by over 1000 points. However, US equity futures have experienced a modest relief rally since the open as the contracts retraced some of their recent losses. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (-1.6%) remained subdued, albeit off lows, as mining and banking names still bore the brunt of the prior session’s decline in base metals and yields. Nikkei 225 (-3.4%) opened with losses of ~4.5% as the benchmark played catch-up to the recent events after its extended weekend, including a firmer JPY. The Japanese index later clambered off lows amid the abating risk aversion, and with Fujifilm Holdings’ shares soaring almost 9% at the open on Japan’s plans to recommend its Avigan drug, produced by a Fujifilm unit, as a coronavirus treatment. That being said, Japanese automakers experienced firm losses on the outbreak’s implications on sales and supply chains; (Nissan -3.9%, Toyota -3.0%, and Mitsubishi -3.4%). Elsewhere, KOSPI (+1.2%) stood as the outperformer after the index consolidated from the prior session’s hefty losses before being bolstered by a declining rate of COVID-19 cases in the country. Furthermore, reports stated that South Korea is to draft a supplementary budget as soon as possible, whilst the government is also taking containment measures in Daegu and North Gyeongsang provinces to prevent further spreading. Over in China, the Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.6%) traded mixed, with the former balancing gains in tech and pharma against losses in financials and oil giants. Meanwhile, Mainland lagged amid a lack of fresh China stimulus and with the PBoC also skipping open market operations for a sixth consecutive day.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Exports Slid Most in Decade in January Ahead of Virus
  • Economic Discontent Brews in Malaysia Amid Power Struggle
  • Temasek’s Fullerton Said to Weigh Indian Shadow Bank Stake Sale
  • Banks Shunning Coal Financing Bodes Badly for New Plants in Asia

The attempted recovery for European equities from yesterday’s sharp sell-off ran out of steam in early trade with investors unwilling to buy up stocks amidst a backdrop of the increasing coronavirus case count across the globe. Despite prospective aid packages from various global powers, focus remains on the mounting case count as the virus continues to spread throughout Italy, the death toll rises in South Korea and Iran, whilst other nations report their first diagnosis’ of COVD-19. In a note published earlier today, Nomura Quants highlights that although it would be unwise to try and reach conclusions based on a single day’s change in sentiment (yesterday), investors are likely reacting to the increasing prospect that the COVID-19 outbreak could lead to a global economic collapse, compared to the initial belief that it would likely only lead to a momentary depressive impact. As such, European bourses are enduring another session of losses (Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%), albeit to a less extent than yesterday. That said, momentum to the downside for European equities has been accelerating with the DAX Mar’20 future taking out yesterday’s low (12961) and the Feb low (12958) to briefly breach a key double-bottom/fib level at 12880.5. Sectoral performance is negative with not too much in the way of specific underperformance. In terms of stock specifics, Prudential (+1.6%) shares have been supported by Third Point disclosing a 5% stake in the Co. and urging them to sperate its Asian and US businesses, whilst Anglo American (+0.4%) shares have been underpinned by recommendations from shareholder advisory groups ISS and Glass Lewis that Sirius shareholders accept the Anglo’s proposed takeover. To the downside, auto/autoparts makers continue to remain out of favour (Continental -2.9%, Michelin -2.3%, Renault -1.8%), whilst Novartis (-3.4%) shares have been weighed on by concerns over the safety of one of its eye drugs and AB Inbev (-2.9%) are enduring losses in the wake of a broker downgrade at HSBC. Furthermore, Philips (-2.9%) shares are lower after the company warned coronavirus is expected to have a negative impact on Q1 performance (albeit it is too early to quantify at this stage), whilst COVID-19 also forced Mastercard (-4.4% pre-market) to cut Q1 guidance and United Airlines (-3.3% pre-market) withdrew all previously issued 2020 guidance.

Top European News

  • Merkel Ally Becomes Front-Runner, Easing Pressure on Chancellor
  • Stuck in Traffic? Spare a Thought for Europe’s Capital of Chaos
  • German Firms Cut Investment for Third Quarter as Growth Stalled
  • Sell-Off’s Silver Lining Is That Italian Bonds Are Now a Bargain

In FX, heightened hard Brexit prospects heading into trade talks between the UK and EU, Sterling has recouped more lost ground vs the Euro and Dollar to sit on top of the G10 table ahead of the CBI’s Distributive trades survey and Brussels unveiling its mandate for the impending negotiations. The Pound’s revival looks partly technical and perhaps as a bi-product of cross positioning, as Cable held above 1.2900 before breaching the 100 DMA (circa 1.2955) and is now testing the 21 DMA (1.2988) that stands in the way of 1.3000, while Eur/Gbp has pulled back from 0.8400+ towards 0.8350. Similarly, the Yen has regained momentum after containing declines against the Buck to 111.00 or thereabouts, and with more depth in the market following the return of Japanese participants from Monday’s Emperor’s Birthday holiday. However, the main catalyst is another downturn in sentiment amidst a growing number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and fatalities stretching further across the globe, with Usd/Jpy inching closer to yesterday’s safe-haven lows and stops said to be sitting down to 110.25.

  • CHF – Also firmer vs the Greenback and back above 0.9800, while Eur/Chf is eying 1.0600 again on the back of renewed risk aversion and with the Franc largely unfazed by a marginal decline in Swiss payrolls. Meanwhile, GOLD looks a bit more stable after suffering a rather sharp and abrupt fall almost as sudden and large as its spike to almost Usd1690/oz amidst the aforementioned deteriorating risk tone.
  • NZD/EUR/AUD/CAD – The Kiwi has retreated from 0.6350+ levels against its US counterpart and near 1.4000 vs the Aussie to prop up the major ranks even though the latter has lost grip of the 0.6600 handle against the Usd and potentially has more to lose from China’s nCoV outbreak and fallout. Elsewhere, the Euro has also handed back gains vs the Buck after failing to sustain 1.0850+ territory and the Loonie is pivoting 1.3300 again as crude prices slip ahead of API inventories. All this helping to keep the DXY afloat within a 98.120-392 range.
  • SCANDI/EM – Somewhat conflicting commentary from the Riksbank for the Sek to digest, as Floden continues to discount soft inflation, but Jansson sounding more concerned especially given the coronavirus and perhaps almost intimating that a reservation should have been entered again. Elsewhere, it’s back to general depreciation, albeit off the troughs seen at the height of aversion on Monday, as the Mxn awaits GDP and IGAE at noon, while the Brl gets current account data 30 minutes later.

In commodities, the crude complex is relatively flat at present, but has fallen significantly from its session highs of circa USD 52/bbl and USD 56.40/bbl respectively for WTI and Brent as there was a brief reprieve in the downside during APAC hours given yesterday’s sell-off; but this reprieve was not enough to flip overall sentiment as markets are firmly back into a risk-off/ FTQ state. Newsflow specifically for the crude complex has been relatively light, with the only specific flow thus far being Libyan oil production at 122.4k BPD which is down marginally from the prior 123.5k BPD, whilst IEA Director Birol warned the body may need to lower its oil demand growth forecast, with the oil demand growth estimate at its lowest in the Prev. 10-years. Looking ahead, the crude complexes fortunes today are likely to remain firmly affixed to the corona-driven demand side; unless we get a statement from Russia on their stance to the recommended OPEC cuts, but so far nothing new. Additionally, we get the weekly API inventory report which previously saw a build of 4.2mln for headline crude. Turning to metals where spot gold experienced a similar reprieve overnight and early EU hours where prices dropped as low as USD 1634/oz, but has turned around in-line with overall sentiment. Having printed a session high of USD 1663.91/oz at present, which is some way off yesterday’s USD 1689.29/oz peak. Elsewhere, base metals remain under pressure, but did experience some mild relief overnight as the sell-off’s momentum dissipated.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.41%, prior 0.48%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 2.8%, prior 2.55%
  • 9am: House Price Purchase Index QoQ, prior 1.1%
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index, prior 218.7
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 132.1, prior 131.6; Expectations, prior 102.5; Present Situation, prior 175.3
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 10, prior 20

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today we are going to have a follow up call at 3pm London time with Dr. Michael Edelstein, an expert epidemiologist we did a call with a few weeks ago. You can see how to sign up by viewing this link here. A few of us had a pre-call with Dr Edelstein yesterday and I would urge you to dial in if you can. My interpretation of the conversation is that the COVID-19 virus from a medical standpoint looks like flu plus or perhaps flu plus plus but that trying to contain the disease now it’s spread notably outside China is likely to cause a lot of economic disruption.

The contagiousness is similar to flu (maybe a touch worse) but with the mortality rate anywhere between 2 and 20 times as high. Flu has a mortality rate of c.0.2% with COVID-19 cited at anywhere between 0.4 and 4. This is a wide bid offer but with our expert thinking it should be in the c.0.5-1% range. He thinks the often quoted 2.5-3% mortality rate might be overstated due to a likely understatement of cases as many people in China with relatively mild symptoms may not have been tested. New information since his first call with us is that we now know people are contagious before they show symptoms. This makes containment very difficult. As such the reports over the weekend of the surge in cases in Italy are a potential game changer. It now is unlikely that Italy will be the only sizeable European outbreak. Given the nature of the way governments will balance the risk/rewards, this could easily lead to widespread travel restrictions and lock downs. Anyway the call will have lots of great colour from an expert.

Interestingly China is certainly returning back to work, with our real-time shipping data now showing activity at levels where you’d expect them to be at this time of the year. The risks are that this will lead to a second round pick up in cases but at some point the risk/reward has to be managed by countries between the health risks and economic impact. Europe is currently at a very different point of this mini cycle than China. So the risks are that shutdowns are to come in Europe as cases increase. Beyond that we should look out for any signs that cases in the US start to surface. That would be very serious for markets in the short-term.

To illustrate how important the next few days are, a reminder that on Friday Italy had only 3 confirmed cases. The latest number from yesterday is that they have 229 cases and 7 deaths. All updates today will be very closely watched. Meanwhile Korean cases have gone up from 30 last Monday to 893 (+60 from yesterday) this morning with a Korean Air cabin crew member also being confirmed as being infected. Afghanistan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq all reported their first cases of the virus yesterday with Iran reporting 61 confirmed cases (it only had 1 confirmed case as of last Wednesday) and 12 deaths. So the fact that this is spreading outside of China is the real problem for growth and financial markets in the short-term.

Before we look at the latest news in Asia the most impressive stat of the tumultuous last 24 hours of trading is that intra-day 10yr US Treasury yields dipped below their all time closing low yesterday. We have data going back to the birth of the nation in the 1790s and US government borrowing costs (including proxies in the early years) have never been lower.

The latest in Asia this morning is that the US CDC has now issued a warning asking Americans to avoid all non-essential travel to South Korea. The level 3 warning, the CDC’s highest, matches that it had previously placed on China. Earlier, the CDC issued lower-level alerts for Italy, Iran and Japan, telling travelers to take extra care and consider postponing non-essential travel. Also, as concerns over the virus impact linger, Hong Kong has now extended the closures of school until the end of Easter. Elsewhere, in China there are now 77,658 confirmed cases and deaths stand at 2,663 (+71 from yesterday). Japan also reported the death of a 4th passenger from the quarantined ship which has been the source of about 700 infections.

The fallout from the virus is now becoming more visible at the micro level with Singapore’s Temasek Holdings saying overnight that it will implement a company-wide wage freeze and ask senior management to take bonus cuts and voluntary pay reductions starting in April. About 26% of Temasek’s holdings were in China as of March 2019. Meanwhile, United Airlines dropped its profit forecast for 2020, citing the financial impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Singapore Airlines also said overnight that it will make more temporary adjustments to flights across its network due to weak demand. They will result in a -7.1% reduction in scheduled capacity from February to the end of May. Separately, Mastercard Inc. lowered its three-week-old forecast for quarterly revenue growth with the company knocking 2 to 3pp off the prediction.

The major risk off from yesterday is showing some small signs of easing this morning with the Kospi (+0.88%) up, the Hang Seng (-0.11%) flattish while the Shanghai Comp (-1.58%) is down. The Nikkei (-3.15%) is leading declines as it reopens post a holiday. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.79% while yields on 10y USTs are also up +2.7bps. Crude oil prices are up c. +0.40% this morning while gold prices are down -0.33%. As for data, South Korea’s February consumer confidence plunged to 96.9 in the biggest drop since June 2015.

This follows on what can only be described as a rout for markets yesterday with the S&P 500 down -3.35% in its worst day since August. It also closed back in negative YTD territory. Over in Europe the STOXX 600 was down -3.79% in its worst day since the two days – Friday and Monday – following Brexit Referendum vote in June 2016. This is the first time that we’ve had 3 consecutive daily falls for the S&P 500 since early December, which shows just how calm things have been over the last couple of months. Volatility returned with a vengeance yesterday however, with the VIX index up nearly 8pts to c.25 and to its highest level since December 2018. Unsurprisingly some of the biggest falls for equity markets were seen in Europe, where the STOXX 600 also erased its year-to-date gains for the year (alongside most equity markets), and both the DAX (-4.01%) and the FTSE MIB (-5.43%) saw their biggest daily moves lower since the day after the Brexit referendum. Italian assets in particular suffered, with the spread of Italian 10-year BTPs over bunds rising by 10.7bps to 145bps, their highest level in a month.

Fixed income provided a number of additional headlines. As already commented above 10yr Treasuries fell below their all time closing low before ending just above it at 1.371% (-10.1bps on the day). The 30yr yield plunged to a fresh record low, down -8.0bps to 1.83%. Aside from Italy where yields spiked higher, it was much the same picture in Europe, with 10yr bund yields down -5.0bps at their lowest level since October, while the 30yr yield fell -4.5bps to close just above negative territory, but earlier traded below for the first time since October as well. Over in credit, the iTraxx Crossover index rose +23.8bps, its biggest single-day rise since March 2018.

Thanks to the coronavirus, markets have ratcheted up the chances of rate cuts from central banks over the coming months, with the next Fed cut now fully priced in by the June meeting. This has been brought forward by around a month from Friday. Looking at Bloomberg’s financial conditions index for the US, monetary easing might be increasingly called for, as yesterday saw the single biggest tightening of financial conditions since August. Over in Europe meanwhile, inflation expectations continued to decline, with five-year forward five-year inflation swaps down -1.1bps at 1.18%, their lowest level since late November, and down from 1.349% in mid-January. The all time low was 1.115% in October of last year.

Other havens surged, with gold up +0.97% to a 7-year high of $1659/oz, while silver also rose +0.79% to $18.63. Gold was up as much as +2.7% midday until there was a sharp pullback in the US afternoon that was caused by some unsourced speculation on potential central bank selling. It was the reverse picture for oil though, with heightened fears over global economic demand sending Brent crude down -3.76% to $56.30/bbl. Haven currencies strengthened too, with the Japanese Yen the top performing G10 currency yesterday, up +0.80% against the US Dollar.

Onto other matters, and attention tonight will turn to the latest Democratic primary debate in South Carolina ahead of the state’s primary vote on Saturday. At the debate in Nevada last week, former NYC Mayor Bloomberg came under sustained attack from the other candidates, but it was Bernie Sanders who won the caucus there and now finds himself as the undisputed frontrunner, having won the popular vote in the first 3/3 contests. The interesting question for tonight therefore will be whether the more centrist/moderate candidates train their fire on Sanders to try and stop his momentum or continue their attacks on each other in order to emerge as the main moderate alternative. The state is super important for former Vice President Biden, who goes in with a narrow 3-point poll lead according to the RealClearPolitics average, as victory there would establish him as the main contender against Sanders, and provide all-important momentum ahead of Super Tuesday in a week’s time. If Sanders managed to come on top though, his momentum going into Super Tuesday, when 14 states plus American Samoa will be voting, could become almost unstoppable.

Sticking with political developments, in Germany the CDU announced yesterday that they would be bringing forward the process to select a new leader to replace Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, holding a special conference on April 25 to choose her successor. This will be a key event to watch out for after Easter, one that will help set the direction of travel in German politics. Meanwhile in the UK, Prime Minister Johnson’s spokesman said that the government would be publishing its negotiating mandate for the upcoming EU trade talks on Thursday, before they publish the mandate for the US trade talks the following week.

Amidst the market rout, the German Ifo survey was unexpectedly positive, with the business climate indicator rising to 96.1 (vs. 95.3 expected), while both the expectations (93.4 vs. 92.1 expected) and the current assessment figures (98.9 vs. 98.6 expected) also beat consensus estimates. That said, given the developments over the weekend with the surge in the number of European cases, the question will be whether this can be maintained moving into March. In the US, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index rose to a 5-month high of 1.2 in February (vs. 0.0 expected), though the Chicago Fed’s national activity index came in at -0.25, below expectations for a -0.18 reading.

To the day ahead now, where the data highlights include the final reading of Germany’s GDP in Q4, the INSEE’s French business confidence indicator for February, while from the US we’ll get the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for February, along with the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for February and the FHFA’s house price index for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos and Fed Vice Chair Clarida, and tonight there’ll be the aforementioned Democratic debate taking place.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.18 POINTS OR 0.60%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 72.35 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 781.33 POINTS OR 3.34%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.58%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0152 /Oil UP TO 51.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.51 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0152 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0250 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW COMPLETE PHASE I WORKING ON PHASE II..

 

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

SOUTH KOREA/CORONAVIRUS//UPDATE

Response coordinator to the South Korean virus epidemic commits suicide as cases near 1000 and 11 deaths

(zero hedge)

South Korean Crisis-Response Coordinator Commits Suicide As Cases Near 1,000, Deaths Hit 11

As South Korea confirms another 144 cases during the day on Tuesday to bring the country-wide total to 977, the small East Asian nation has become home to the largest outbreak outside China. The country’s death toll also climbed to 11. The second-highest death toll outside the mainland after only Iran.

 

 

On Tuesday, President Moon Jae-in traveled to Daegu, the city where more than half of the country’s cases have been detected, and pledged to avoid the draconian restrictions Chinese authorities implemented in Wuhan, and across Hubei. Though he also advised residents to stay indoors. His comments were accompanied by a warning from the South Korean government advising foreigners to put off travel to the country.

However, Moon’s bold promises were somewhat blunted by the fact that the government has implemented a containment policy on Daegu, North Gyeongsang Province, according to a party official cited by Yonhap. Other reports claimed South Korea is in the process of drafting a supplemental budget, while Moon has declared Daegu a “special disaster zone.”

As Daegu sinks into isolation, Korean Air Lines and Asiana Airlines announced they would suspend domestic flights to the city until next month. A Singaporean government minister warned that the city-state could impose sweeping travel restrictions targeting South Korea if the outbreak gets worse. Korean Air also said it’s working with government health authorities to prevent the spread of the virus after a crew member fell sick.

But in Seoul took on a more morbid tone Tuesday following reports in the local press that a civil servant from the Ministry of Justice’s Emergency Safety Planning Office jumped off a bridge in Seoul at around 5 am local time Tuesday.

The official was one of several individuals charged with overseeing the government’s response to the virus. As cases soar and hysteria mounts, we suspect this news won’t exactly help quiet the public’s nerves.

Finally, over in the US, the CDC has upgraded its travel notice for South Korea to “avoid nonessential travel”.

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan admits that the virus cannot be stopped:  it rolls out a new policy which will treat only the most serious cases.  The mild ones will treat themselves at home.

(zerohedge)

“We Can’t Stop This”: Japan Rolls Out New ‘Harm Reduction’ Policy Aimed At Limiting Virus-Related Deaths

Overwhelmed by a flurry of ‘unsolved’ cases (that is, cases with no obvious connection to the outbreak in China, or anywhere else), Japanese health authorities announced on Tuesday a new plan intended to focus the country’s precious medical resources on the most serious cases, while advising those with mild symptoms to treat themselves at home.

The approach differs markedly from the heavy handed tactics employed by Beijing, which at its peak had 760 million – roughly half the country – under some form of lockdown restriction.

According to the Washington Postthe “basic premise” of the Japanese plan is that the virus can’t be stopped. That’s right: The Japanese are essentially acknowledging that the thesis proposed by Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch – ie that 70% of the world’s population might someday contract the virus – has at least some legitimacy.

Japan has at least 160 confirmed cases of the virus outside the ~700 people who caught it aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’. Japanese health officials claim that a large-scale outbreak hasn’t taken hold; rather, small clusters of the disease have broken out around the country.

One senior advisor who spoke with WaPo put it the starkest of terms: We can’t stop it, so the best we can do is keep the body count as low as possible.

“We shouldn’t have illusions,” said Shigeru Omi, a senior government adviser. “We can’t stop this, but we can try to reduce the speed of expansion and reduce mortality.”

In keeping with this maxim, hospital space will be reserved for patients with the most serious symptoms, while those with simple colds and fevers have been asked to rest at home. They’re only to contact health authorities if a fever persists for four days. Or two for the elderly, people with chronic diseases or pregnant women .

Companies have been asked to promote “flexible” work schedules to lessen daytime crowds aboard Tokyo’s mass transit.

Citizens have also been advised to “limit” face-to-face conversations, avoid crowds and drinking sessions, and wash their hands if they touch straps while commuting on the train. Though the government didn’t explicitly “ban” large events, it asked organizers to consider whether their event was really that necessary.

The new policy does little to clear up the uncertainty surrounding the Tokyo Olympics. But we suspect Japan will wait another month or two before it starts seriously considering what’s next.

3 C CHINA

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS

We now have evidence that not only prisons did not count the coronavirus deaths but also nursing homes.  The real deaths inside Wuhan is hugh higher than reported

(zerohedge)

The reporters claim that a pattern of discrepancies that has emerged in the official statistics surrounding cases tied to nursing homes and other facilities specializing in elder care. The elderly are, of course, one of several vulnerable populations singled out by the WHO and the governor of Hubei for special care.

But after it came to light late last week that Chinese authorities missed 500 cases in several prisons in and outside of Hubei, journalists and local officials got curious to see what else was being overlooked.

One nursing home situated just blocks from the seafood market where the outbreak allegedly began reported 19 deaths recently all of which are believed to have been caused by the virus. However, a doctor told the paper that only one death was counted in the official statistics.

Unexplained deaths from lung ailments among the elderly at the Wuhan Social Welfare Institute and similar facilities suggest that nursing homes may be another blind spot as the government’s epidemic-fighting efforts have focused on hospitals and other communities.Last week it came to light that Chinese prisons reported more than 500 previously uncounted Covid-19 cases among guards and inmates.

The situation was complicated by the quarantine, which cut off many family members from their loved ones. Once elderly patients were moved into quarantines, it only became more difficult to track them.

After Wuhan tightened quarantine measures to restrict people from leaving their homes and to send the sick into makeshift quarantine quarters, many people lost contact with elderly family members in nursing homes. Family members of people in nursing homes say they have been trying to find out how many residents may be infected, where the elderly are quarantined, whether there are caregivers, what test results show and whether the government can send more medical and care staff to institutions.

Given all the staff shortages, and the staggering number of health-care professionals who caught the virus, family members accused the state of failing to provide sufficient protections for elderly family members who died of the virus.

Some family members of deceased seniors told Caixin that the nursing home didn’t take sufficient protective measures and residents were not even asked to wear masks.

The doctor at the infirmary said the nursing home wasn’t sealed off until Jan. 21, when the outbreak was already spreading quickly in the city. Because it was close to the Lunar New Year, there were many visitors at the nursing home every day. It hasn’t been ruled out that visiting family members might have brought the virus into the nursing home, the doctor said.

A medical worker at the nursing home said it’s also difficult to implement quarantine measures because of staff shortages and residents with dementia.

Apparently, Caixin managed to obtain official documents proving the discrepancy: A register of the deceased from the nursing home where they lived showed 15 deaths between Dec. 23 and Feb. 15, and four more on Feb. 18 for a total of 19.

But only one death, that of an 83-year-old male who had lived at the facility, was recorded in the official stats. The others were assigned ambiguous causes of death, like “pneumonia”, a strategy that we’ve reported on previously.

A list of the dead at the social welfare facility obtained by Caixin showed 15 fatalities between Dec. 23 and Feb. 11 and four more Feb. 18. Of the total of 19 fatalities, only the death of an 83-year-old male Feb. 15 was clearly linked to Covid-19. Eight others were attributed to infections, including six to lung infections and two deaths from shock caused by infection. The remaining 10 fatalities were reportedly from other causes, and five of them took place before Feb. 11 when the nursing home started testing for Covid-19.

The nursing home never before had so many deaths in such a short time, according to a staff member who has worked there many years. Except for one 27-year-old female with cholecystitis, all of the 18 others on the fatalities list were in their 80s and 90s and most had diabetes, high blood pressure, stroke or disabilities, according to the list.

It’s also notable that the facility is just a few hundred yards from the seamarket alleged to be ‘ground zero’ for the outbreak.

 

The facility, just a few hundred yards from the seafood market that may have been the starting point of the outbreak, is a combination senior hospital and nursing home. It is home to 458 senior residents with 190 staff, 21 property management personnel and eight care workers. The facility has been sealed off since Jan. 21 as local authorities stepped up efforts to contain the outbreak. All staff have been asked to stay in the facility.

One doctor who purportedly worked at the facility said he treated a man with a high fever who eventually died of “septic shock” back in December. But given the time that has passed, there would be no way to prove the virus was the cause.

A doctor in the welfare facility’s infirmary said he participated in the treatment of a patient in late December who had a fever as high as 107.6 degrees Fahrenheit (42 degrees Celsius). The patient died from septic shock possibly caused by infection, but the cause of infection was unknown because no virus check was done, according to the doctor, who was later confirmed infected with Covid-19 himself.

But even without the tests, the symptoms combined with the sharp increase in deaths suggests that dozens are going undercounted in Wuhan’s nursing homes.

The doctor said he treated three seniors who died since late December. Several doctors, nurses and attendants have also shown symptoms of lung infection, the doctor said.

A care worker said more than 10 seniors died during the Lunar New Year holiday. At first, they had fever and lost appetite. Those with recurrent fevers were transferred to quarantine rooms but died after a couple of days, the worker said.

“Since they were never confirmed with tests, we don’t know whether they died from the virus,” the worker said. “But before the outbreak, even though many of the seniors at the nursing home have chronic diseases, we have never seen so many deaths in such a short time.”

And if they’re being undercounted in Wuhan, which reportedly had relatively lax controls on who could visit these ‘vulnerable’ facilities, that means they’re likely undercounting deaths in hot-spot nursing homes across the country.

end

CHINA/ECONOMICS/CORONAVIRUS

this is to be expected:  Chinese business conditions crash the most ever on record

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY/CORONAVIRUS/TUESDAY UPDATE/BAHRAIN/IRAN/SOUTH KOREA/CROATIA

It sure looks like Italy is having its hands full trying to contain the virus:  huge outbreak there.  South Korea is in a mess.

your update

Europe Questions Italy’s Ability To Contain Outbreak After Hospital Helped Spread Virus: Live Updates

Update (0825ET): Bahrain has banned its citizens from traveling to Iran as it reports 9 new cases of coronavirus, raising the total cases in the tiny island kingdom to 17 in the span of 24 hours.

* * *

Update (0800ET): With his reputation under fire and his popularity slipping, PM Giuseppe Conte said Tuesday that he’s confident that the measures his government has put in place will contain the contagion in the coming days

This comes after the PM admitted that a hospital in Lombardy inadvertently helped spread the virus by not adhering to certain health-care protocols. The PM has blamed the hospital for the outbreak in the north, raising questions about whether “the European nation is capable of containing the outbreak,” according to CNN. To put things in perspective, Italy now has 3x the number of cases in Hong Kong.

“That certainly contributed to the spread,” Conte said, without naming the institution concerned. The infection has been centered around the town of Codogno, around 35 miles south of Milan.

“Obviously we cannot predict the progress of the virus. It is clear that there has been an outbreak and it has spread from there,” Conte told reporters, referring to the hospital.

A team of health experts from the World Health Organization and the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control arrived in Italy on Monday to assist local authorities while some 100,000 remain under an effective quarantine.

Over in India, Trump added to his earlier comments by saying a vaccine is “very close”, even though the most generous estimates claim we need another year.

Market experts cited a WSJ report on a possible vaccine as helping market sentiment, though even that report made clear that human tests of the drug are not due until the end of April and results not until July or August.

* * *

Update (0650ET): It’s not even 7 am in the US, and it looks like a new outbreak is beginning in Central Europe.

Local news agencies report that Croatia has confirmed its first case, while the Austrian Province of Tyrol has confirmed two cases.

In South Korea, meanwhile, officials have just confirmed the 11th coronavirus-linked death, a Mongolian man in his mid-30s who had a preexisting liver condition.

Over in India, where President Trump is in the middle of an important state visit with the newly reelected Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the president struck an optimistic tone once again claiming that the virus will be a “short-term” problem that won’t have a lasting impact on the global economy.

“I think it’s a problem that’s going to go away,” he said.

Trump also reportedly told a group of executives gathered in India that the US has “essentially closed the borders” (well, not really) and that “we’re fortunate so far and we think it’s going to remain that way,” according to CNN.

Meanwhile, SK officials announced they’re aiming to test more than 200,000 members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, the “cult-like” church at the center of the outbreak in SK.

* * *

Last night, a post written by Paul Joseph Watson highlighted commentary from a Harvard epidemiology professor (we realize we’ve heard from pretty much the whole department at this point in the crisis, but bear with us for a moment) who believes that, at some point, ‘we will all get the coronavirus’.

Well, up to 70% of us, but you get the idea: The notion that this outbreak is far from over is finally starting to sink in. Stocks are struggling to erase yesterday’s losses, with US futures pointing to an open in the green after the biggest drop in two years. More corporations trashing their guidance, and more research offering a glimpse of the faltering Chinese economy (offering a hint that all the crematoriums are keeping air pollution levels elevated even as coal consumption and travel plunge) have seemingly trampled all over the market’s Fed-ensured optimism.

And across Europe, the Middle East and the Far East, headlines tied to the outbreak hit at a similarly non-stop pace on Tuesday.

With so much news, where to start?

In China, data out of the Transport Ministry revealed that barely one-third of China’s workforce has returned to work, despite state-inspired threats. CNN reported Tuesday that only 30% of small businesses in China have returned to work. The problem? Travel disruption has left millions of migrant workers stranded. There’s also the question of schools: Some cities, including Shanghai, are offering students the option of completing their studies online after March 2.

China’s rapidly advancing tech sector has responded to the crisis by unleashing a wide range of technologies outfitted for specific tasks, including ferrying supplies to medical workers, fitting drones with thermal cameras and leveraging computer-processing power to aid the search for a vaccine.

In a televised interview, one health official said it might take 28 days to safely say an area is free of coronavirus, while another official insisted that “low risk” areas should “resume normal activity” on Tuesday. The government is dividing the country outside Hubei and Beijing into three ‘risk’ tranches, and will mandate that those in the lowest tranche get back to work, school or whatever they were doing before the virus hit.

Investors are clearly concerned that, instead of the ‘v’-shaped recovery promised by the IMF, the economic bounce-back from the coronavirus might be closer to a “u”-shape. On top of that, as cases proliferate in South Korea, Italy and the US, pundits are beginning to worry that the rest of the world is where China was two months ago – in other words

Throughout the day, South Korea confirmed 144 more cases, bringing the country-wide total to 977, the highest number outside China.

As the Korean government warns that foreigners shouldn’t travel there, Korean Air Lines and Asiana Airlines, to South Korean airlines, said they would halt flights to Daegu until next month, leaving the door open to a longer shutdown.

On Tuesday afternoon, South Korean President Moon Jae-in traveled to Daegu, the city where more than half of the country’s cases have been detected, and advised its residents to stay indoors but pledged to avoid the draconian restrictions Chinese authorities implemented in Wuhan.

Outbreak-related news in Seoul took on a more morbid tone Tuesday following reports in the local press that a civil servant from the Ministry of Justice’s Emergency Safety Planning Office jumped off a bridge in Seoul at around 5 am local time Tuesday.

The official was one of several individuals charged with overseeing the government’s response to the virus. As cases soar and hysteria mounts, we suspect this news won’t exactly help quiet the public’s nerves.

A Singaporean government minister warned that the city-state could impose sweeping travel restrictions targeting South Korea if the outbreak gets worse.

Minutes ago, Italian authorities confirmed another 8 coronavirus cases, 54 of which have been confirmed on Tuesday, bringing the total to 283

More than 100,000 Italians in 10 villages are under lockdown in the ‘red zone’ in northern Italy, where the military has been deployed and people have been told to stay inside. Fears about the virus spreading throughout the region were validated yesterday when Spain reported a third case, an Italian traveler. On Tuesday, Reuters reports that Spanish authorities have closed the Tenerife Hotel on the Canary Islands and are testing all of its occupants.

Most of the cases have been recorded in Lombardy (200+), while Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Piedmont, Bolzano, Trentino and Rome have all confirmed at least one case. The UK government warned that any British travelers in northern Italy should self-isolate, according to the Washington Post.

In Japan, the “J League”, Japan’s professional soccer league, has announced that it will postpone all games until at least March 15, saying in a statement that it’s “fully committed” to stopping the spread of the coronavirus. The decision followed a government recommendation to cancel all public events and gatherings.

Embracing a markedly different approach from Beijing, Japan has announced a new policy on Tuesday designed to focus medical care on the most serious cases, while urging people with mild symptoms to treat themselves at home.

According to the FT, the new strategy of containment announced by a panel overseeing the virus response acknowledged that simply testing everyone potentially exposed to the more than 100 cases outside the ‘Diamond Princess’ would overwhelm its health-care system.

It is radically different approach from that adopted by China,

Though it hasn’t announced new cases in a day or so, Japan has confirmed 840 cases of novel coronavirus so far, with nearly 700 of them linked to the ‘Diamond Princess’ cruise ship.

Iran’s ‘official’ death toll climbed to 14 on Tuesday, with 61 cases confirmed so far.Despite a wave of border closures that left Iran virtually isolated by its neighbors, more cases have started to bleed across the border: Iraqi health ministry officials have confirmed four coronavirus cases in Kirkuk, all of whom are members of a family. He previously looked unwell during a press conference.

Even more embarrassing for the Iranians than having a local lawmaker expose the horrifyingly real death tollon Tuesday, the government confirmed that a Deputy Health Minister had been sickened by the virus.

We suspect we’ll be hearing more bad news from the Middle East as the full scope of the Iranian outbreak becomes more clear.

end
ITALY ET AL//CORONAVIRUS
 a must read..
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

‘Big’ Lie Of The Day: This Is Not A Pandemic

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

A regional governor in Italy issued a reassuring lie today.

Business Insider reports Photos show what Italy is like under lockdown as the country becomes Europe’s epicenter of the coronavirus.

Venice is “taking precautionary measures — this is not a pandemic. We decided to ban all events for a week especially to protect older citizens, but businesses are working as usual,” said regional Governor Luca Zaia in an interview.

Meanwhile, in Milan, all work activity has come to a halt with blockades preventing travel in and out of the area.

The above details are from the Bloomberg article Italy Struggles to Contain Virus With Rich North in Lockdown.

Italy’s economic engine ground nearly to a halt on Monday amid Europe’s largest coronavirus outbreak.

The hit to the economy from limiting movement and activity in the prosperous area from Venice to Milan, home to some 15 million people and responsible for almost a third of Italy’s gross domestic product, is likely to be severe.

Adding to the concern: contagion seems to be spreading mostly through hospitals and it remains unclear exactly how the illness arrived in the country.

There were already signs of panic taking hold. Shoppers stormed supermarkets in Milan over the weekend as citizens worried that food stocks would run out. Staples like meat, bread and pasta were in short supply in some stores as consumers, many wearing surgical masks, waited in long lines to stock up.

Matteo Salvini, leader of the opposition League party, used the outbreak to attack Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. Italy needs “to make our borders armor-plated,” he said, calling on Conte to resign “if he isn’t able to defend Italy and Italians.”

One of These Doesn’t Fit

  1. 11 Cities in Italy are in lockdown
  2. Half of China has travel restrictions with 60 million in full lockdown.
  3. Coronavirus cases are growing exponentially in Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Iran.
  4. This is not a pandemic.

Lies Don’t Prevent Panic

Except when it comes to finances about “free stuff” (education, health care, etc.) people generally recognize when they are being lied to.

And in this case there are travel restriction in 11 cities in Northern Italy with 3 month jail terms for people venturing outside roadblocks.

When you tell huge lies like this, people know it and that’s what feeds the fear: What else are they not telling us.

Coronavirus Podcast

This morning I was a podcast participant with Jim Bianco, Dr. Ben Hunt, Dr. Chris Martenson, and Erik Townsend.

Erik Townsend 🛢️@ErikSTownsend

Here’s our thought leadership panel. We assembled the most prolific (and early) voices on FinTwit for an update on the formative global pandemic.

PLEASE RE-TWEET WIDELY folks. This one is of great interest to a broad audience! https://twitter.com/MacroVoices/status/1232056313988947969 

MacroVoices Podcast@MacroVoices

We’ve assembled the #COVID thought leaders of Financial Twitter @EpsilonTheory @biancoresearch @chrismartenson @MishGEA for an in-depth panel discussion as #COVID19 escalates toward global pandemic status. Please re-Tweet! #OOTThttp://bit.ly/3a2O1dy

View image on Twitter

The podcast is on the long side and most of my readers are familiar with the material.

But it was a pleasure to be with a group of bright people who had this pegged correctly from the beginning.

All of us wish we were wrong.

END

AUDI/GERMANY
Audi suspends electric vehicle production due to battery shortages. You will see these types of production problems escalate
(zerohedge)

Audi Suspends Electric Vehicle Production Due To Battery Shortage

Today in “news that affects all electric vehicle manufacturers but definitely not Tesla stock”, Audi has announced that it has suspended production of its e-Tron electric SUV effective February 20 and won’t resume until some point early this week.

The suspension has been a resolve of “resolving production issues”, which are mainly attributed to bottlenecks in battery supply, according to Business Insider. Audi uses battery cells that are made by LG Chem and ran into similar battery supply chain issues last year.

Making sure companies have a steady battery supply has become a priority for many EV makers. Names like Jaguar and Hyundai have also faced similar supply chain issues with batteries in the past. Other automakers, like GM, Toyota and Tesla are investing in joint ventures or building their own battery manufacturing facilities.

As one example, GM and LG Chem announced a deal last year where they would both invest a cumulative $2.3 billion into a battery factory in Ohio.

Audi said that the company sold roughly 26,400 of the SUVs last year but wouldn’t comment on delivery estimates for the upcoming year. The company reported sales of 5,369 e-Trons in the Americas last year, which represented 2.4% of sales in the region.

Regardless, it is yet another issue in the EV world that real auto manufacturers are subject to – and yet another one that, for some reason, doesn’t seem to catch up with Tesla. How can things at Tesla always be just fine and dandy while other auto manufacturers have to deal with these real world supply chain issues?

Last year, for instance, Tesla’s Elon Musk said that Panasonic was “holding back production” of the company’s Model 3 by not making enough batteries. The company’s stock has tripled since then, while Tesla has made no material progress in producing its own batteries.

end
Michael Every’s take on the coronavirus
a must read..
(courtesy Michael Every)

Rabobank: Several Things Cratered Yesterday

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Several things cratered yesterday.

The first was global stocks. The S&P dropped 3.4%, which once upon a time was just a normal bad day in the office, but in our new normal of central banks tacitly and US presidents openly targeting stock prices as the key driver of the global ‘economy’, that kind of decline in plutocratic wealth is both rare and a nasty shock. Regardless, more and more companies are now reporting that either earnings or supply chains are going to be impacted by this crisis – as we had feared would be inevitable. Asia this morning has seen follow-on equity selling, with the Japanese Nikkei -3.3% at time of writing and even China, where all is now close to being closer to normal again (or so we are told) -1.6%. However, US futures are rising as I type. It is, after all, cheaper to buy, and our underlying asset-pumping infrastructure is still intact, even if global supply chains and the real economy aren’t. But who cares about them anyway? Indeed, “Please hold the panic” says the Wall Street Journal, and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday happily overstepped his boundaries to tell us that central banks will of course cut rates if the virus impact grows.

The second to crater was global bond yields. In this case, 10-year US Treasuries hit a low of under 1.36%, although we are back up to 1.39% along with US equity futures, with the 2-year at 1.28%. The market is now expecting the Fed to cut again later this year, which should be no real surprise to anyone except the Fed. (Not so much over the risk to life, perhaps, or to growth – just to equities.) In the meantime, we got ‘just’ around USD40bn in new Fed repo madness to tide us over for a few days…or perhaps hours. Who knows?

The third to crater was arguably the credibility of China’s virus-collection statistics. The foreign press have published several stories during this crisis that have questioned the accuracy of the data being presented: now the Chinese press has too. Caixin newspaper is alleging that COVID-19 deaths being hugely under-reported at old people’s and nursing homes, with this being a key demographic hit by the virus. The sample is very small, just one home, but in it 19 deaths have occurred recently, of which just one was recorded as being due to COVID-19, which seems highly irregular. If true, this could mean that the virus’s fatality rate is significantly higher than being reported, even as deaths rose ‘just’ 71 yesterday in China. That higher mortality rate, especially for the elderly, would also be more in line with the shock of 50 deaths that Iran reported yesterday (though there is confusion over that number too) and most all of the recorded deaths seen in Italy so far.

The fourth to crater must surely have been the WHO’s reputation. The same institution that has been lavishing praise on China’s virus lockdown while simultaneously arguing that similar measures internationally were totally unnecessary is still refusing to call this a “pandemic”,–despite South Korea, and Iran, and Italy–a designation that would legally force the hand of governments world-wide. We are right on the edge of that definition, apparently, but not there yet. “Using the word pandemic now does not fit the facts, but it may certainly cause fear…what we see are epidemics in different parts of the world affecting different countries in different ways,” said the WHO boss, who added that in China the situation now appears under control, which again means it can’t be a pandemic. (Note that the WHO has form in terms of when it does and doesn’t cry “pandemic”, which appears to be a moveable feast and not a gold standard. The question is who moves it and why.)

Of course, this makes the WHO look like that other international guardian, the IMF, which has suggested that the crisis so far could knock all of 0.1 percentage point off 2020 global GDP growth–oh the horror!–but which is preparing for an ‘even worse’ scenario: perhaps 0.2 percentage points? The IMF will, of course, never call a recession until one is already in one; it always sees risks instead. And it is never, ever political in its decisions or statements. Ever. Honest.

And consider this. The deaths recorded in Iran and Italy, worrying as they are, matter more than we think. Italy has already seen China-style quarantine imposed yet the EU, like China, insists on a ‘WHO’ message that international controls on free movement are not needed. However, generally people don’t catch COVID-19 and *suddenly* die. The evidence is that it takes several weeks, often symptomless, before it claims a life, during which time the infected individual has been able to spread it to all around them in various ways. In short, if there are already deaths, it suggests that there are likely to be many other as-yet unrecognised clusters of cases within Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere. Consider how many ‘targeted’ travel bans might have to be introduced if that comes to pass, just like the one that Hong Kong, itself on some travel bans, is now imposing on South Korea – against WHO advice, of course. Consider if COVID-19 gets into the Syrian refugee population; and consider where the Syrian refugee population may then try to get to in response.

Even the “What, me worry?” White House has just requested Congress for USD2.5bn to combat COVID-19. Try adding several decimal places to that, if one looks at China’s experience.

Meanwhile, in the rest of the world it appears that 16 more Turkish soldiers have died in Syria at the hands of Syrian-Russian forces, which in more normal times would be considered a major event; US President Trump is having a hug-in with Indian Prime Minister Modi in India, which also has enormous geopolitical (and ultimately market) implications; and the White House is both insisting that China stick to the terms of the US-China phase one trade deal (remember that?) and is allegedly close to expelling Chinese journalists from the US in retaliation for the expulsion of three Wall Street Journalist journalists from China in response for an Op-Ed using a widely-used cliché to describe the Chinese economy which has been used in China itself by Chinese writers in the recent past; oh, and even Bernie Sanders has been talking about US support for Taiwan. In short, the global liberal order is also still cratering. Not that the market has really paid any kind of attention to that either.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/SYRIA/GAZA

ISRAEL WAS AT ITS WORD:  They took out Islamic jihad militants in both Damascus and Gaza in simultaneous air strikes

(zerohedge)

Israel Takes Out Islamic Jihad Militants In Damascus & Gaza In Rare Simultaneous Air Strikes

Damascus once again was rocked by Israeli airstrikes Sunday night, with Syria saying its anti-air defenses were active in confronting a wave of “enemy rockets” from the direction of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

In a rare acknowledgement of the attack, Israel confirmed in was behind it, and linked it to rocket fire from the Palestinian territory, Gaza. The Israeli army said in a statement that it targeted Islamic Jihad leaders living in Damascus

“In the Adeliyah region, outside of Damascus, an Islamic Jihad compound was struck, used as a hub of Islamic Jihad’s activity in Syria,” the statement said. “Israeli military planes targeted Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza” it said further.

 

Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip on Sunday, on a night which also saw attacks on the Syrian capital. Image source: Reuters. 

Palestinian Islamic Jihad confirmed that two of its members were killed in Damascus Sunday night, in a relatively brief attack which war monitors say killed a total of six people. The other four were alleged to be members of a pro-Iranian militia.

But Syrian state-run SANA said the country’s air defenses were effective, noting they “caused the missiles to deviate from their path, destroying most of the remainder before reaching their goals, and the results of the aggression are still being examined.”

vanessa beeley@VanessaBeeley

air defense downed missiles fired fm occupied Golan. 3 waves of aggression. Western Damascus countryside, Artouz, Khan al-Sheeh, and Sa`saa, and the southern Damascus countryside in al-Kiswa and Marj al-Sultan in Eastern Ghouta, and up to the south of Izraa, Daraa

Embedded video

Like with prior attacks over the past two years, Israeli jets were said to have fired from outside of Syrian airspace — most of the time from over neighboring Lebanon. Historically, wanted or exiled leaders of Palestinian militant and “resistance” groups have had headquarters in Damascus.

Islamic Jihad’s military wing, promised retaliation, saying in a statement: “The Israeli aggression in Damascus and killing two of our fighters is an event that cannot be ignored and will not pass quietly,” according to Haaretz.

Israel simultaneously launched airstrikes on Gaza in response to earlier rocket fire:

Robert Inlakesh@falasteen47

BREAKING: Six Injured From Israel’s Airstrikes Against Gaza Tonight As Israel Launched 3 Waves Of Airstrikes Against Damascus, Syria.

Israel Also Killed A Palestinian In Gaza This Morning.
How Long Will It Be Until They Are Held Accountable?

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

This particular attack is notable not only because it was essentially an assassination of Palestinian commanders related to Gaza, but also because Tel Aviv owned up to it immediately. Prior attacks have been focused on preventing Iranian expansion and entrenchment inside Syria.

Israel’s Defense chief Naftali Bennett vowed last week to step up offensive attacks in Syria to stop Iran. “We will go from preventive action to offensive action — the only measure that guarantees us the expulsion of Iran out of Syria,” he said.

“We are warning them (the Iranians), we will turn Syria into an Iranian Vietnam, and you will continue to bleed until the last Iranian soldier leaves Syrian territory,” the nation’s defense chief threatened.

END

ISRAEL GAZA/

Netanyahu threatens all out war after 90 rockets fired from Gaza.  The iron dome knocked out the majority ..the rest landed into empty fields or the water.

(zerohedge)

Netanyahu Threatens All-Out War After 90 Rockets Fired From Gaza

Monday witnessed significant escalation over Gaza as Palestinian Islamic Jihad sought to avenge the deaths of three commanders killed in Israeli air strikes on Gaza and Damascus the day before.

Israeli media counted some 90 total rockets fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip throughout the day since the attacks began Sunday night, with the IDF claiming its Iron Dome defense system had intercepted the vast majority which came near populated areas.

 

Israeli airstrike on Gaza City on Monday, February 24, via AFP/The Times of Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had earlier threatened to initiate broader war if the rocket fire didn’t cease. Despite an Islamic Jihad spokesman announcing a unilateral cease-fire by the early evening, the rocket fire was reported as continuing later into the night Monday.

“We are now hitting with planes, tanks, and helicopters,” Netanyahu said while inspecting an Iron Dome unit in the south. “I’m talking about a war,” Netanyahu, who is entering a final week of campaigning before Israeli national elections, had further told Israel’s Army Radio station. “I only go to war as a last option, but we have prepared something you can’t even imagine.”

He also appeared to threaten to kill the heads of Hamas and Islamic Jihad if the rockets continued, saying:

“We will continue to strike until the calm returns. If there isn’t quiet, you’ll be next.

Some 30 rockets were initially fired out of the Gaza Strip on Sunday night, and it continued to escalate through Monday.

CNW@ConflictsW

Incredible footage of the Iron Dome Air Defense system intercepting multiple rockets fired towards Israel from Gaza this evening

Embedded video

In a developing stand-off, Islamic Jihad appeared to threaten its own continuation and step up of attacks, blaming Israel for not stopping its aggression.

“The enemy did not commit itself into stopping its aggression we we resumed based on the fire-for-fire principle,” Islamic Jihad spokesman Abu Hamza, said.

James J. Marlow@James_J_Marlow

For those who seem to think that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad rockets being fired from into southern for the past 2 days are just cheap fireworks, think again. Yes, Israel has the powerful Iron Dome to shoot down more than half, but many of these are Iranian made.

Embedded video

Pundits were quick to point the finger at Iran for allegedly supplying increasingly sophisticated rockets to militant groups in the strip, which are reaching deeper into Israel.

Meanwhile, Israel is reportedly sending tanks, armored vehicles and troops to its southern border in what could become the next round of major fighting at a politically sensitive moment ahead of next week’s election.

END

II)TURKEY/SYRIA/RUSSIA
I have no idea why this brain dead ruler wishes to confront the  Russians:  more Turkish troop deaths in Idlib
(zerohedge)

More Turkish Troop Deaths In Idlib Bring Russia & Turkey To Breaking Point

After on Monday there were new unconfirmed reports of several Turkish Army soldiers killed or wounded in a Russian air strike on a Turkish convoy, already tense relations between Moscow and Ankara are at a breaking point.

“Several soldiers from the Turkish Army were reportedly killed or wounded this afternoon following the joint airstrikes launched by the Syrian and Russian air forces in the Idlib Governorate,” Beirut-based Al Masdar News reports“According to pro-opposition media, as many as ten Turkish soldiers were killed or wounded as a result of the joint Russian-Syrian airstrikes near the town of Kansafra.”

And British-Syrian journalist Danny Makki, who reports from inside Syria lists “10 Turkish casualties between killed and wounded in the Russian airstrikes today sources suggest, 4 armoured vehicles also purportedly destroyed.” However, there’s yet to be official confirmation out of Turkey of these new alleged casualties. Ankara did previously confirm at least one soldier killed in fighting on Sunday.

 

Turkish military post in Idlib, via Anadolu Agency.

Turkey’s Defense Ministry has in total acknowledged 16 of its soldiers killed amid the renewed Syrian-Russian offensive to take back Idlib, which began early December.

These increasingly direct clashes between Syrian-Russian allied forces and Turkish national troops have led to renewed urgent talks announced Monday between Russian and Turkish officials.

Russian FM Sergey Lavrov announced Monday that “Another series of consultations is now being prepared and we hope it will help us reach an agreement on how to ensure that this really becomes a de-escalation zone and terrorists don’t boss around there.”

Gareth Browne@BrowneGareth

Turkey and Russia patrol together in Kobane. Just 200 kilometres away in Idlib, the Russian Airforce is bombing Turkish troops. https://twitter.com/civilwarmap/status/1231933188790005761 

Syrian Civil War Map@CivilWarMap

Footage of the joint patrol of the Russian Army and Turkish Army near Kobanê todayhttp://SyrianCivilWarMap.com

Embedded video

“I hope that the ongoing contacts between our military and the Turkish military, with the participation of diplomats and security services, will end positively, and we will be able to make sure that terrorists do not take over this part of Syria, as, in fact, they should not take over anywhere else,” Lavrov added.

The Kremlin is further trying to downplay what Turkish officials are describing as a “crisis”  also given President Erdogan has lately vowed to not allow Idlib to be taken by pro-Assad forces. “Russian-Turkish relations should not be depicted as in crisis even after an escalation in political tensions over Syria’s last rebel-held enclave of Idlib, Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday,” according to TASS news agency.

“Certainly, we would not like to plunge into this gloomy mood and in fact to make extremely negative scenarios, but the week has really happened to be absolutely restless,” Peskov commented in a televised interview.

Sixteen Turkish military personnel have been killed in shelling by Syrian government forces over the past two weeks, prompting Turkey to tell Russia to “stand aside” while its forces bombard dozens of Syrian army targets in retaliation.

Moscow has warned Ankara to fulfil pledges made to disarm Islamist fighters it depicts as terrorists. The two sides held talks in the Russian capital last week to help diffuse tensions. — Ahval News

Turkey has sent thousands of troops into Idlib while sealing off the border with the northwest province, also hoping to prevent some one million more refugees from flooding in, adding to already some three million plus refugees Turkey says it’s hosting.

END

 

IRAN/CORONAVIRUS

This is interesting:  the Iranian Deputy Health Minister has tested positive for the coronavirus. I wonder how many of his cabinet did he infect

(zerohedge)

Iranian Deputy Health Minister Infected With Coronavirus Seen Looking Feverish During Official Press Conference

Earlier on Tuesday, we reported that the ‘official’ number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Iran had climbed to 14, and that one of the newly diagnosed patients was an Iranian Deputy Health Minister named Iraj Harirchi, who announced in a video on Tuesday that he would “certainly defeat corona”.

خبرگزاری فارس

@FarsNews_Agency

📲 مشاور وزیر بهداشت: تست ابتلای معاون کل وزارت بهداشت به کرونا مثبت شد.

View image on Twitter

خبرگزاری فارس

@FarsNews_Agency

🎥حریرچی: من هم کرونایی شدم، حتما کرونا را شکست می دهیم.

Embedded video

Well, new footage has surfaced allegedly from a press conference in Tehran held before Harirchi’s diagnosis. In the video, he can be seen looking extremely unwell, repeatedly wiping his brow with what appear to be tissues.

 

BNO Newsroom

@BNODesk

BREAKING: Iran’s deputy health minister tests positive for coronavirus; he had previously looked unwell during a press conference

Embedded video

Here’s a freeze-frame.

Nowhere has the response to the coronavirus been more mismanaged than Iran (with the possible exception of North Korea). We wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the virus has circulated among other government officials and civil servants.

Maybe, if Trump gets lucky, the Ayatollah will catch it.

END

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0840 DOWN .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.63 DOWN 0.228 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2961   UP   0.0037  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3287 UP .0001 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0840 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 18.18 POINTS OR 0.60% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 72.35 POINTS OR 0.23%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,58%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 72.35 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.18 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  1 58% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 781.33  POINTS OR 3.34%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1650.30

silver:$18.42-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.38% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.84 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.31 DOWN 5 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.24% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.11%  DOWN 5   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.21%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.98 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 77 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.52% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.50% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0877  UP     .0030 or 30 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.05 DOWN .810 OR YEN UP 81  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3009 UP .0085 POUND UP 85  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 1 basis points to 1.3387

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0136    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0253  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1339 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.11%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.33 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.81 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.01 DOWN 35  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 74.64  1.87%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 109.16 POINTS OR 1.88%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 232.19 POINTS 1.78%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 210.20 POINTS or 2.22%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 284.83 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 50.74 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 55.56 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    65.28  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.02 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 2 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.52 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  49.15/

 

 

BRENT :  53.73

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.36 DOWN  10 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.83..DOWN 12 BASIS PTSS..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0879 ( DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.49 UP .201 (YEN DOWN 20 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.00 DOWN 8 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2917 DOWN 85  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.1578

 

 

the Russian rouble 65.86   UP 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3291 DOWN 14 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0183  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0290 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.52%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 879.14 POINTS OR 3.15%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 255.04 POINTS OR 02.77%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  26.86 CLOSED UP 1.83

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.646%//libor dropping like a stone/data finalized feb 25

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LATE MORNING/USA

Re-Turnaround Tuesday: Stocks & Bond Yields Are Plunging Again

US equity markets just took out yesterday’s lows and Treasury yields are also extending to fresh lows…

Dow has puked back below 28k and is down almost 500 points from overnight highs…

So much for Turnaround-Tuesday!

All US majors are breaking back below key technical support…

And yields are plunging…

Somebody do something!

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Dow Dumps 2,000 Points From Highs & ‘Jawboning’ Is Failing To Halt The Panic

Update (1350ET): Like a champion boxer who is just past his prime, Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow took to CNBC early Tuesday afternoon to try and jawbone the markets higher as US stocks headed for their fourth day in a row.

Kudlow stressed that the US has been “ahead of the curve” when it comes to “protecting citizens” (by canceling flights, barring foreigners etc.) – even as the CDC warns that the US is dangerously unprepared for “community outbreaks” that it believes will inevitably arrive. People need to stay “calm”, Kudlow said, adding that we won’t really know how bad this will be for the US until a few weeks have passed.

Kudlow stressed the human toll of the outbreak, calling it “an incredible human tragedy.” But as far as the economy is concerned, “I don’t think we’re looking at an economic disaster at all,” he added.

 

To support his claim, Kudlow cited the recent spate of Fed data, claiming there has been “no evidence” of supply disruptions.

Granted, there have been bright spots, but we can’t help but wonder: Is Kudlow looking at the same data we are?

And how does one explain gold and the 30-year?

As far as rate cuts are concerned, Kudlow says “I’m not hearing that.”

“I’m not hearing the Fed is going to make any panic moves.”

We can almost hear the bulls shouting ‘Aw, C’mon Larry!’ at their TV screens.

Before launching into a tangent about the “human toll”, the G-7 and the US’s growth playbook, Kudlow left us with a solid departing thought: whatever happens next with the virus, “it’s not gonna last forever,” Kudlow said.

And if you’re investing for the long term, it simply doesn’t make sense to lose your nerve in a selloff, right?

Right?

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, US equity markets are extending their losses and strategists are starting to wake up to the ugly reality that The Fed can’t print vaccines… no matter how much they promise easing, it won’t fix the consumption slump or supply chain collapse.

As CNBC reports, the influx of foreign nationals to the United States from areas impacted by the coronavirus means a large American outbreak is “increasingly likely,” a scenario that could “rattle” markets in tandem, according to investment bank Jefferies.

Equity strategist Simon Powell wrote in a note to clients that although the incidence of new coronavirus cases in China appears to be slowing, recent breakouts in Italy, Iran and South Korea hint that the disease is capable of spreading to and within many locations.

We increasingly find it hard to believe that USA cases are as low as reported, and believe that given the flow of Chinese, Korean and Iranian nationals into North America, a large USA community-based outbreak is increasingly likely,” Powell wrote on Tuesday.

“Imagine trying to quarantine a large city in the USA for a month, similar to how the Chinese have shut down Wuhan, or the way the Italians are trying to ring-fence 10 towns near Milan,” he added.

“Our working hypothesis is that it wouldn’t work, and could cause panic on a scale that would spook markets.”

The Dow is down over 2000 points from its highs late last week…

How much pain are they willing or can they afford to take?

NorthmanTrader.com’s Sven Henrich explains, the answer is ‘Virtually none’.

The economy is not the stock market, but the stock market is the economy. Or rather the stock market is the biggest threat to the economy and must be protected at all costs.

To me it was never a question that the Fed was going to cut rates again in 2020 despite claims of the 3 rates cuts in 2019 cuts just having been a “mid-cycle adjustment”, or despite claims of a coming reflation trade or despite new market highs exceeding all expectations thanks to the Fed liquidity.

No, I said it right at the beginning of January:

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

The Fed will cut rates again in 2020.

123 people are talking about this

And the question to me, despite all the brave Fed claims, was simply how much market pain they’d be willing to endure before shifting the brave stance again. Just last week I posed:

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

Prediction: If markets drop 10%+ before April the Fed will not end repo or its treasury bills buying program as indicated.
If anything they will increase it and cut rates.

Why? Because markets will demand it & this Fed has no backbone whatsoever & his beholden to markets.

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

Ah who am I kidding… they’ll freak at 5% down 😂

In 2019 Powell stepped in with jawboning at every 5%-7% down

And 3 days later and 5% down here comes the jawboning. RATE CUTS NOW!!!

No, I’m not kidding, here’s the jawbone via former president of the Minneapolis Fed:

The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now:

“The Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee holds its next meeting on March 17-18. I don’t think that the FOMC should wait that long to deal with this clear and pressing danger. I would urge an immediate cut of at least 25 basis points and arguably 50 basis points.”

Panic, pre-emptive cutting.

And of course a Fed, that simply can’t afford to disappoint markets for fear of any sell-off is now faced with a market that is now pricing in 2 rate cuts in 2020.

But it’s not just the Fed that is now again under pressure to deliver.

3 down days and 5% down and the political jawboning is already in full swing:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!

Robert Costa

@costareports

News: Kudlow spoke w/ Post after markets closed. Encouraged people to buy.

“The coronavirus will not last forever. The US looks well-contained and the economy is fundamentally sound,” he told me. “If you’re a long term investor, you should seriously consider buying these dips.”

How much value to put in these efforts? The political calculus is clear: Keep markets elevated for the election:

Kyle Griffin

@kylegriffin1

WaPo last week: Trump has told advisers that he does not want the administration to do or say anything regarding the Coronavirus outbreak that would further spook the markets. He remains worried that any large-scale outbreak could hurt his reelection bid. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-soft-touch-with-chinas-xi-worries-advisers-who-say-more-is-needed-to-combat-coronavirus-outbreak/2020/02/16/93de385a-5019-11ea-9b5c-eac5b16dafaa_story.html#click=https://t.co/UYEO6HYb4i 

Trump’s soft touch with China’s Xi worries advisers who say more is needed to combat coronavirus…

The president has said repeatedly that pushing for a harder line against China could backfire because President Xi Jinping controls the government “totally” and will not work with the United States…

washingtonpost.com

Whatever it takes. Does it have economic predictive meaning? Not necessarily:

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

Kudlow 101: There Ain’t No Recession
“Yesterday’s tremendous ADP jobs report puts the dagger into the very heart of the recession case.” – Larry Kudlow December 6, 2007

*Recession started December 2007https://www.nationalreview.com/kudlows-money-politics/kudlow-101-there-aint-no-recession-larry-kudlow/ 

Kudlow 101: There Ain’t No Recession

Yesterday’s tremendous ADP jobs report puts the dagger into the very heart of the recession case. The fact is, America is working. Look at how close the reports parallel one another. So here’s my p…

nationalreview.com

They will jawbone until the bulls come home. Fact is the virus is still not contained and if a global recession unfolds they can cut rates and jawbone until they’re blue in the face.

It remains all about control.

But the very effort itself reveals something: They are worried about losing control of markets for a sizable downturn in markets may trigger what they are trying to avoid for obvious reasons: A recession. And the threshold of accepting any sort of pain in markets is thin: 5% and you see them react.

The question remains about efficacy. We’ve just seen an attempt to put a floor under the market. Let’s see if it lasts. Calls for rate cuts now after 5% down, that’s now the benchmark. Comes to show how fragile this market construct really is. It can’t hold its own without Momma Fed.

*  *  *

For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services.

END

ii)Market data/USA

Our uSA consumer is in big trouble as subprime credit card delinquencies rise to record highs.  Also subprime auto loans are in trouble

Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies Spike To Record High, Surpass Financial-Crisis Peak

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

The rate of credit card balances that are 30 days or more delinquent at the 4,500 or so commercial banks that are smaller than the top 100 banks spiked to 7.05% in the fourth quarter, the highest delinquency rate in the data going back to the 1980s (red line).

But at the largest 100 banks, the credit-card delinquency rate was 2.48%, which kept the overall credit-card delinquency rate at all commercial banks at 2.7% (blue line), though it was the highest since 2012, according to the Federal Reserve.

What’s going on here, with this bifurcation of the delinquency rates and what does that tell us about consumers?

Clearly, those consumers that have obtained credit cards at the smaller banks are in a heap of trouble and are falling behind at a historically high rate. But consumers that got their credit cards at the big banks – lured by 2% cash-back offers and other benefits that are being heavily promoted to consumers with top credit scores – do not feel the pain.

A similarly disturbing trend is going on with auto loans. Seriously delinquent auto loans jumped to 4.94% of total auto loans and leases outstanding. This is higher than the delinquency rate in Q3 2010 amid the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression. On closer inspection, there was that bifurcation again; prime-rated loans had historically low delinquency rates; but a shocking 23% of all subprime loans were 90+ days delinquent.

During the Financial Crisis, delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans were soaring because over 10 million people had lost their jobs and they couldn’t make their payments.

But these are the good times – with the unemployment rate near historic lows. And yet, there are these skyrocketing delinquency rates in the subprime subset of credit cards and auto loans. It means these people are working, and they’re falling behind their debts.

Consumers with subprime credit scores (below 620) can still get credit cards, but under subprime terms – namely interest rates of 25% or 30% or more.

These rates comes at a time when, according to the FDIC, banks’ average cost of funding was around 1.0%. The difference between a bank’s average cost of funding and the interest it charges is its net interest margin. For banks, subprime credit-card balances, with interest rates of 30%, are the most profitable assets out there.

To get these profits, banks take big risks. Even when a portion of those credit card accounts have to be written off and sold for cents on the dollar to a collection agency, they’re still profitable overall. In addition, banks offload part of the subprime risk to investors by securitizing these subprime credit-card loans into asset backed securities. And investors love them and chase after them for the slightly higher yield they offer.

So I’m not worried about the banks or the investors. If they take a beating, so be it. But what does it tell us about the consumers?

The largest 100 banks have a delinquency rate of just 2.48%, which is low by historical standards. With their sophisticated marketing, they go aggressively after consumers with high credit scores and high incomes, and to get them, the big banks offer big benefits, and so a bidding war has broken out for these high-credit-score consumers, with “2% cash back on every purchase” and other benefits that small banks cannot offer.

These big banks have most of the customers and most of the credit card balances (assets for the banks). Their special offers rope in the lion’s share of consumers with top credit scores. They also issue credit cards to consumers with subprime credit scores. But since these big banks have the lion’s share of prime-rated customers, their subprime customers, when they default, don’t weigh heavily in the mix.

Smaller banks can’t offer the same incentives and don’t have the marketing resources the big banks have. But subprime-rated customers are easy to hand a credit card that comes with few incentives and charges a 30% interest. And those credit card balances, producing 30% interest income, do wonders for a small bank’s bottom line. Proportionately, these small banks end up with more subprime customers. And in this way, they become a gauge for subprime credit card delinquencies.

So why are these delinquencies spiking now? We haven’t seen millions of people getting laid off. These are the good times.

It’s a sign of the sharp bifurcation of the economy for consumers. One group of consumers is doing well. They have rising incomes, and they can afford the surging home prices, the surging healthcare costs, and the surging new-vehicle prices. Those price increases are not reflected in the inflation measures. For example, the price of a Ford F-150 XLT has skyrocketed 163% since 1990 while the official CPI for new vehicles over the same period has increased only 22% thanks to “hedonic quality adjustments” and other adjustments (here is my pickup truck price index chart that overlays both).

Same with used cars. The official CPI for used cars has declined by 11% since 1995, an amazing feat of hedonic quality adjustments, as actual used-car prices have soared since 1995.

There are other consumers whose incomes have not budged much – maybe it went up in line with CPI, but CPI doesn’t reflect actual price increases of cars and homes and other items. Everything big they’re trying to buy or rent or use has soared in price – new and used vehicles, housing, healthcare, education, etc. And those consumers, though they’re working hard, are getting squeezed. That’s the bifurcation.

These are the people that are strung out. They have jobs but are living from paycheck to paycheck, and not because they’re splurging but because, at their level of the economy, prices of basic goods and services have run away from them.

And this can happen from one day to the next, for example when the landlord raises the rent by 15%, or when the car turns into a hopeless heap and has to be replaced, or when the insurance premium jumps 25%, or when the kid ends up in the emergency room. Or a combination. And suddenly, there is no money left to make the minimum payment on the credit card.

And this is happening while people are working. This subgroup of consumers that are getting squeezed is growing, and their problems are growing, and their credit-card delinquencies and auto-loan delinquencies are spiking into the stratosphere like never before – while many other consumers have the best years of their lives, relishing with gusto the out-of-control “speculative energy,” the blistering highs in the stock market, and the surging prices of their homes, vacation homes, and investment properties. And that’s the bifurcation that we’re seeing in the chart above.

*  *  *

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely.

end
Richmond Fed business survey crashes in February.
(zerohedge)

Richmond Fed Business Survey Crashes In February As New Orders Collapse

After a shocking surge in January (from -5 to +20), Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey has crashed back to earth in February, plunging back into contraction at -2 (drastically missing the expectation of +10)…

Source: Bloomberg

That was worse than the lowest estimate from analysts (forecast range from +3 to +15 from 12 economists surveyed).

Under the hood new order volumes collapsed…

  • Shipments fell to 1 after 29 the prior month
  • New order volume slowed to -10 after 13 the prior month
  • Order backlogs fell to -6 after 9 the prior month
  • Capacity utilization slowed to 2 after 14 the prior month
  • Inventory levels of finished goods slowed to 21 after 28 last month
  • Inventory levels of raw goods fell to 34 after 37 last month

Next we will see the Philly Fed spike erased as ‘soft’ survey data catches down to ‘hard’ data’s reality…

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA/CORONAVIRUS

Why do we have the CDC tested only 400 USA citizens as compared to thousands in other countries.  Does the USA have a shortage of kits?

(zerohedge)

If CDC Believes US Coronavirus Outbreak Is “Imminent”, Why Have Only 400 People Been Tested?

As the CDC and the State Department continue their blame game over who was responsible for breaking quarantine during the evacuation of more than 300 American passengers aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’, a Rutgers professor is raising interesting questions about the federal government’s response to the outbreak on Twitter.

Richard Ebright, a professor of chemical biology, pointed out that only 426 Americans have been tested for the coronavirus since the outbreak began.

That’s compared with nearly 200,000 tests in China, and 28,000 tests in South Korea.

Not question each of those countries has a more serious outbreak. But it seems like there have been enough scares across the US to warrant more tests, especially as authorities promised to trace contacts and isolate them.

As of Monday, the CDC has reported 39 cases among people returning from Wuhan or the Diamond Princess, 12 additional ‘travel related’ cases, as well as two cases of human-to-human transmission involving family members of those infected abroad.

So, why hasn’t the US taken the initiative to test more cases? It’s true that the CDC warned about a shortage of quality test kids last week. And on Monday, senior White House officials warned about the vulnerable supply chain for health-care products needed to combat the outbreak, as we noted earlier.

Does this mean the federal government and the CDC have obscured the seriousness of a shortage of virus tests and other medical gear?

Or is this another example of the federal agency dragging its feet for some reason probably related to bureaucratic politics.

Richard H. Ebright@R_H_Ebright

China has performed nearly 200,000 tests.

South Korea has performed nearly 28,000 tests.

Meanwhile, US–with most expensive, but most dysfunctional, healthcare system on planet–has performed just 414 tests and has little or no capacity to perform more (https://cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html )

2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

cdc.gov

Richard H. Ebright@R_H_Ebright

Update: CDC numbers have been just updated from 414 tests from Jan 29-Feb 21 (an appallingly poor throughput of 17 tests per day) to 426 tests from Jan 21-Feb 24 (an even more appallingly poor throughput of 16 tests per day).https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html 

2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

cdc.gov

And he’s not the only one raising questions.

Andy Biotech@AndyBiotech

Notably, CDC has only tested a mere 426 samples -> 14 domestic cases

Meanwhile, South Korea has test >21,000 samples with another 11,000 to be tested -> 883 domestic cases https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1231988809274970113 

Andy Biotech@AndyBiotech

#COVID19 CDC just updated that total number of confirmed cases in U.S. now 53

– 14 domestic cases
– 36 evacuated from #DiamondPrincess
– 3 evacuated from #Wuhanhttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html 

View image on Twitter

It’s especially alarming since CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield warned that the virus would likely ‘gain a foothold’ in the US in the not-too-distant future. He characterized it as an unavoidable eventuality.

“The containment phase is really to give us more time,” he said. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year,” said Redfield. “We don’t have any evidence that this coronavirus is really embedded in the community at this time, but with that said, we want to intensify our surveillance so that we’re basing those conclusions based on data.”

If assuaging the public’s fear was Redfield’s aim in giving this interview, he definitely failed to accomplish his mission.

Also, the finding begs the question: Why did the Trump Administration give away so many hundreds of thousands of face masks and other medical supplies like virus tests to China if the shortage here was so dire?

Whatever the reason, this one salient fact is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore as all hell breaks loose in Italy and South Korea:

Richard H. Ebright@R_H_Ebright

Incredibly, CDC is getting worse at testing with time, instead of getting better.

Especially with 8,000 people under a self-imposed quarantine in California, the shortage of kits is certainly alarming.

END

It is not only pharmaceuticals that are in jeopardy..just looks what Proctor and Gamble states:

Over 17,000 products are potentially impacted by the coronavirus

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Coronavirus threatens shortages of about 150 drugs

About 150 prescription drugs — including antibiotics, generics and some branded drugs without alternatives — are at risk of shortage if the coronavirus outbreak in China worsens, according to two sources familiar with a list of at-risk drugs compiled by the Food and Drug Administration…

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-threatens-drug-shortage-318c9e7b-5d92-4a5e-b992-2478023c6d01.html

GOP Sen. Josh Hawley @HawleyMO: It’s time for Senate hearings to find out how we allowed our critical medical supply chains for antibiotics & other vital drugs to become so dependent on China & threatened now by coronavirus.  Earlier this morning I sent a letter to the FDA asking for answers on drug shortages due to coronavirus. It’s become clear we need oversight hearings & additional legislation to protect our medical supply chain and disentangle it from China

On Monday a critical mass of investors realized that there is no amount of Fed credit that can quickly repair or restore critical supply chains in the US. 

@YahooFinance: Coronavirus “is clearly having an impact on supply chains,” Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders says. “This is a supply shock… And when you think about the complexity and long lead times of this very intense global supply chain, the impact is significant.”

https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1231992574480723968

@roysebag: Central bankers the world over are now at a critical juncture. They can keep supporting equity markets and get socialism, higher gold prices, or a combination of the two as a result. Or, they can recognize that plagues, wars, and droughts cannot be cured by monetary debasement.

ohn Solomon: Newly declassified FBI memos conflict with Mueller team’s assertions in @GeorgePapa19 case. Will DOJ investigate? Prosecutor is same who resigned from Stone case.

    According to Zelinksy, Rhee, and Goldstein’s August 17, 2018 sentencing memo filed with U.S. District Judge Randolph D. Moss, “the defendant’s false statements were intended to harm the investigation, and did so.” Papadopoulos’ “lies negatively affected the FBI’s Russia investigation,” they argued, “and prevented the FBI from effectively identifying and confronting witnesses in a timely fashion.”  The FBI interview memos, however, paint a far different picture. They show, for example, that Papadopoulos expressed his willingness to participate actively in helping the bureau locate Mifsud personally even before Feb. 10, 2017… “The declassified 302s “provide our first evidence of the Mueller team lying to the court,” Nunes told Just the News… “Now, the sad part,” Nunes added, “is that Papadopoulos served his [time] in jail.”… Zelinsky remains an assistant U.S. attorney for the United States District of Maryland, where he once worked under Rod Rosenstein…

https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/newly-declassified-fbi-memos-call-question-mueller-teams-assertions

John Solomon: House Republicans consider filing criminal referrals against Mueller prosecutors

“We’re now going through these 302s, and we’re going to be making criminal referrals on the Mueller dossier team, the people that put this Mueller report together,” Nunes said during an interview on the John Solomon Reports podcast set to air on Tuesday… Nunes said he hopes John Durham, the U.S. Attorney in Connecticut named by Attorney General William Barr to investigate the Russia investigators, can turn his attention to the conduct of Mueller’s team and not just the FBI leaders who started the Russia probe using opposition research from Hillary Clinton’s campaign…

https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/house-republicans-preparing-criminal-referrals-against-mueller

@EmeraldRobinson: It’s weird how all the people who testified against Trump in the House impeachment hearings are getting “book deals” (payoffs). And it’s really weird how they all have the same book agent: Javelin.  https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/ex-ukraine-diplomat-marie-yovanovitch-lands-seven-figure-book-deal/

FBI Agent Faulted In FISA Report For ‘Significant’ Errors Has Finally Been Identified

The New York Times… identified Stephen A. Somma, a counterintelligence investigator who works out of the bureau’s New York field office, as “Case Agent 1” from the inspector general’s (IG) report…“Case Agent 1” is singled in the report as being “primarily responsible for some of the most significant errors and omissions in the FISA applications.”…

    He was also the FBI handler for Stefan Halper, a former Cambridge professor who met with and secretly recorded Trump campaign aides Carter Page, Sam Clovis and George Papadopoulos…He also failed to disclose that the CIA told him on Aug. 15, 2016, that Page had been an “operational contact” for the agency years earlier…  https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/24/case-agent-1-stephen-somma-fisa/

The obviously compelling question is: Who ordered agent Stephen Somma to contact Stefan Halper?

LA Times’ @suhaunah: Bloomberg is hiring 500 people ahead of CA primary to promote him to friends & family. I spoke to a few: Interactions were awkward & stilted. Ppl thought texts were spam. Facebook posts got zero likes. Some didn’t even support Bloomberg—they just needed $$

https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2020-02-23/mike-bloomberg-paid-twitter-social-media

Bernie Sanders Goes to War against Pro-Israel AIPAC, Accuses It of ‘Bigotry

The Israeli people have the right to live in peace and security. So do the Palestinian people. I remain concerned about the platform AIPAC provides for leaders who express bigotry and oppose basic Palestinian rights. For that reason I will not attend their conference…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/02/23/aipac-bernie-sanders-goes-to-war-against-pro-israel-accuses-of-bigotry/

The Covid-19 crisis has diverted attention from another pandemic: Trump Derangement Syndrome

CNN International @cnni: President Trump — whose diet is often a rotation of steaks, burgers and meatloaf — faces a potential shock as he visits India, where Hindus are the majority and cows are revered as sacred. [This is not a parody!  You can’t make this up!  Where are the adults?!]

@DineshDSouza: I ate meat every day growing up in India. Beef, chicken and pork. Many Hindus also eat meat, as of course do Muslims and others. The idea that Trump is in for a dietary “shock” in India simply reflects CNN’s cultural ignorance.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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