FEB 28/ DOW PLUMMETS ONLY TO BE RESCUED IN LAST 1/2 HR ON CORONAVIRUS CONCERNS. //DOW DOWN 357 PTS//MASSIVE RAID ON GOLD/SILVER WITH GOLD DOWN $73. AND SILVER DOWN 1.12//

GOLD:$1467.30  DOWN $73.20    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

Silver:$16.49   DOWN 122 CENTS. (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

FINALIZED

Closing access prices:

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

ACCESS MARKETS

 

Gold : 1586.50

SILVER: 16.66

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/636

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,640.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/27/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 03/02/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 318
167 C MAREX 4
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 9
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 583
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 28
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 17 12
661 C JP MORGAN 29 130
690 C ABN AMRO 4
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 94
800 C MAREX SPEC 19
880 C CITIGROUP 14
905 C ADM 7
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 636 636
MONTH TO DATE: 636

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 636 NOTICE(S) FOR 63,600 OZ (1.9782 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  636 NOTICES FOR 63600 OZ  (1.9782 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

 

 

3023 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 15,115,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3023 for 15,115,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  8481 DOWN 330 dollars

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: 8733  down 88 dollar

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL  BY A HUGE SIZED 8,525 CONTRACTS FROM 226,995 DOWN TO 218,370 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 744,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 18 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO THE FINAL DAY OF LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS..

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 5141 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  5141 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 5141 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 5141 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 25.705 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 18 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

20.750  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAR

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 18 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS ALL THE COMEX LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO THE FINAL DAY OS SPREADER LIQUIDATION. WE HAD ON BOTH EXCHANGES  A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 3484 CONTRACTS. OR 17.420 MILLION OZ…..   WE HAD NO LONG LIQUIDATION AND WE PROBABLY HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING,..AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE…ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO THE CRIMINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

 

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION AND THAT EXPLAINS THE RISE IN COMEX OI DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

40280 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 40,280 CONTRACTS) OR 201.400 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2120 CONTRACTS OR 10.600 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 201.400 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 28.77% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          383.01 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     201.400 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 8625, WITH THE  18 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /THURSDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 5141 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A  STRONG SIZED  SIZED:  3484 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE 18 CENT FALL IN PRICE)//HOWEVER ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE OF LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS

THE TALLY:

i.e 5141 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 8,625 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  18 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.71 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.221 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 174% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3023 NOTICE(S) FOR  15,115,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR:20.750 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY STRONG SIZED 4504 CONTRACTS TO 722,120 AND MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL FALL OF $3.45 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE, MOST LIKELY HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND SOME LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THAT FALL IN PRICE.  TOGETHER WITH THE VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S (SEE BELOW) OUR BANKER FRIENDS COULD NOT FLEECE APPRECIABLE LONGS FROM OUR TWO GOLD ARENAS. ..AND AS SUCH WE HAD A GAIN OF 3407 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 7911 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 7911; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 7911.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 722,120  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3407 CONTRACTS: 4504 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7911 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3407 CONTRACTS OR 340,700 OZ OR 10.59 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A LOSS OF ONLY $3.45 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 10.54  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (LOSS $3.45). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AGAIN AS WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (7,911) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN COMEX OI.(4504 OI):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3407 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND LITTLE LONG LIQUIDATION….. JUST AN INCREASE IN TOTAL OI WITH ALL OF THE GAIN COMING FROM EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 186,886 CONTRACTS OR 18,688,600 oz OR 581.29 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9836 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 581.29 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 581.29/3550 x 100% TONNES =16.37% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   1151.48  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            581.29  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4504 WITH THE PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK THURSDAY($3.45)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7911 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7911 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 3,407 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7911 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  4504 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 10.54 TONNES). AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.45 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

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OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 8,625 CONTRACTS FROM 226,995 DOWN TO 218,370 AND MOVING AWAY FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710 (SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO THE CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS EXPLAINED ABOVE

EFP ISSUANCE 5141

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 5141; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5141 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 8625 CONTRACTS TO THE 5141 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 3484 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  17.420 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 20.750 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE  18 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED 5141 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 111.02 POINTS OR 3.71%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 649.69 POINTS OR 2.42%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 806.27 POINTS OR 3.67%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 3.35%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9862 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP// LAST AT 6.9862 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9871 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4504 CONTRACTS TO 722,120 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GAIN IN OI WAS SET WITH A  FALL OF $3.45 IN GOLD PRICING //THURSDAY’ COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE,.  THUS WE HAD MINIMAL BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE STRONGLY IN OPEN INTEREST..

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7911 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 7911,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7911 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 3407 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7911 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4504 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. 

 

THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $3.45). BUT THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1340 CONTRACTS ….(10.54 TONNES) WE HAD MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  3407 CONTRACTS OR 340700 OZ OR 10.54 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  722,120 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 72.22 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,246 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,246/2200 OR 102% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8625 CONTRACTS FROM 226,995 DOWN TO 218,370 (AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR HUGE OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR  SMALL 18 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/THURSDAY. TODAY ALL OF THE LOSS OF COMEX OI IN SILVER WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION IN SILVER.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.

MAR ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF MAR HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 4150 CONTRACTS .  THEREFORE BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH IS AS FOLLOWS:

4150 X 5,000 OZ PER CONTRACT  =    20,750,000 OZ

 

 

APRIL saw a GAIN of 88 contracts UP to 1065

MAY had a LOSS OF 2046 CONTRACTS in oi to stand at 160,275.

 

 

 

We, today, had  3023 notice(s)  for 15,115.000, OZ for the MAR, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 505,443 contracts..volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  713,206 contracts//high volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MARCH/GOLD

FEB 28

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 201.07 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
636 notice(s)
 63600 OZ
(1.9782 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
138 contracts
(13,800 oz)
0.4292 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
636 notices
63600 OZ
1.9782TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had XX dealer entry:

We had XX kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:XX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XXX oz

 

we had XX deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: XXX  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else XXX

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  XX  oz

 

 

we had XX gold withdrawals from the customer account:

total gold withdrawals;  XX  oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS: XX

 

 

 

The front month of MARCH saw its open interest register 774 contracts.  Thus by definition the initial

amount of gold standing in this non active delivery month of March is as follows:

 

774 contracts x 100 oz per contract = 77400 oz or 2.407 tonnes

APRIL saw a loss of 7783 contracts down to 506,861 contracts

 

 

We had 636 notices filed today for 63600 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  MAR 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 636 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the March /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (636) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAR. (774 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (636 x 100 oz per contract) equals 77,400 OZ OR 2.407 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (636 x 100 oz)  + (774 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (636 x 100 oz )which equals 77,400 oz standing OR 2.407 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a February delivery month.

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 37.485 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.611 tonnes

MARCH………………………………………………………..              2.407 TONNES

 

total: 158.507 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 25,645 TONNES SETTLED

 

 

IF WE ADD THE 7 DELIVERY MONTHS: 158.507  tonnes

 

Thus:

158.507 tonnes of delivery –

25.645 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

 

=132.862 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 36.6300 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,353,869.021 oz or  42.111 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,177,657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,177657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,663,541.978 oz 269.49 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 28 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
3023
CONTRACT(S)
(15,115,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1127 contracts
 5,635,,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3023 contracts

15,115,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had XX inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: XXX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XX oz

i)we had  XX deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   xx

into everybody else:  xxx

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.92% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/323.167 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  xxx   oz

 

we had xx withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; xxx  oz

We had xx adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.922 million

total dealer + customer silver:  323.167 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the MAR 2019. contract month is represented by 3023 contract(s) FOR 15,115,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3023 x 5,000 oz = 15,115,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (4150) and the number of notices served upon today 3023x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 3023 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (4150)- number of notices served upon today (3026) x 5000 oz equals 20,750,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 209005 CONTRACTS //volume extremely high

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 289,034 CONTRACTS..,,volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 289,034 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,445 million  OZ  206.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.54% ((FEB 27/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.52% to NAV FEB 27/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.54%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.34 TRADING 15.95///DISCOUNT 2.38

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD

FEB 26./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 28/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 934.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 771 TRADING DAYS: -3.00 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 670 TRADING DAYS: A NET 16313. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/\

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY: A STRONG GAIN OF 747000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

FEB 26\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

367.632 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.58/ and libor 6 month duration 1.53

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.60%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.54

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.06

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Ted Butler: A Bear Stearns deja vu?

 Section: 

By Ted Butler
SilverSeek.com
Thursday, February 27, 2020

Having traded as high as $1691 in Comex April gold and $18.92 in March silver on Monday on near-record volume and closing not far from those levels as of the 1:30 p.m. ET settlements, prices sold off sharply in the always thinly-traded afterhours.

As expected, the all-too-common occurrence drew complaints of market rigging. To be sure, the sudden selloff was deeply suspicious, but the suspected culprits were not surprising when one examines the known data. Those long had nothing to gain by driving prices sharply lower when trading liquidity was at its lowest. The only entities that stood to gain by the sudden selloff were those most short — the seven biggest short sellers.

… 

At Monday’s price highs, the seven big shorts in Comex gold and silver futures were in the hole by another billion dollars, pushing their total combined open loss to a record $8.2 billion. The selloff that started at 2:30 p.m. ET and continued through Tuesday morning allowed the big shorts to wipe out the additional billion-dollar impairment and left them at Friday’s then-record $7.2 billion underwater mark.

If one is looking to understand what makes gold and silver prices tick, it’s wise to look at those who have the most to gain or lose. That’s why I monitor the financial scoreboard of the 7 biggest shorts. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

http://silverseek.com/commentary/bear-stearns-d%C3%A9j%C3%A0-vu-17859

 

Bear Stearns Déjà vu?

Theodore Butler

|

February 27, 2020 – 10:32am

 

Having traded as high as $1691 in COMEX April gold and $18.92 in March silver on Monday on near-record volume and closing not far from those levels as of the 1:30 PM EST settlements, prices sold off sharply in the always thinly-traded afterhours. As expected, the all too common occurrence drew complaints of market rigging. To be sure, the sudden selloff was deeply suspicious, but the suspected culprits were not surprising when one examines the known data. Those long had nothing to gain by driving prices sharply lower when trading liquidity was at its lowest. The only entities that stood to gain by the sudden selloff were those most short – aka the 7 biggest short sellers.

At Monday’s price highs, the 7 big shorts in COMEX gold and silver futures were in the hole by another one billion dollars, pushing their total combined open loss to a record $8.2 billion. The selloff that started at 2:30 PM EST and continued through Tuesday morning , allowed the big shorts to wipe out the additional billion dollar impairment and left them at Friday’s then-record $7.2 billion underwater mark. If one is looking to understand what makes gold and silver prices tick, it’s wise to look at those who have the most to gain or lose. That’s why I monitor the financial scoreboard of the 7 biggest shorts. (As always, I’ll update the big 7’s financial standing when I send this article later).

All derivatives positions, both long and short, are open positions that must ultimately be closed out at some point. Futures positions can be rolled over almost indefinitely, as opposed to options positions which are terminated on specific dates. Since futures positions can remain open (by roll over), both the longs and shorts must deposit additional margin money when positions move against them, thus assuring the integrity of the contract. That’s another reason why I monitor the financial scoreboard of the 7 big shorts.

Actually computing the financial standing of the 7 big shorts in COMEX gold and silver is rather simple. I just take the weekly net concentrated short positions of the 8 largest traders in COMEX gold and silver futures and subtract JPMorgan’s short position (since it holds massive physical gold and silver stockpiles and the other big shorts do not). As of the most recent COT report, the 7 big gold shorts held 280,000 net COMEX contracts (28 million oz) and 90,000 COMEX silver contracts (450 million oz) short. Therefore, every dollar move in gold means $28 million to the 7 big shorts and every 10 cents in silver means $45 million in gain or loss.

While it’s true that the 7 big shorts have never collectively bought back short positions on higher prices and at a loss, it’s not written in the Bible or the Constitution that someday they won’t be forced to do so. If the big shorts ever do buy back short positions on higher prices, in addition to being the first time such a circumstance has ever occurred, it will dictate a sea change from how gold and silver prices have been determined for nearly 40 years.

Let me be clear in what I am saying – I can’t know when the big shorts will collectively buy back short positions on higher gold and silver prices for the very first time, but as and when they do buy back on higher prices, then prices will behave differently than anyone has ever witnessed. The only reason silver, in particular, is as cheap as it is – is because the big shorts’ position has depressed prices. Without this short “price cap”, silver would be much higher.

The only possible alternative is that we do experience a sharp selloff in which the big shorts, once again, buy back short positions on lower prices and then refrain from adding new shorts when prices begin to rally. I’ve held this alternative view for quite some time, but it’s starting to look like even if we do get a sharp selloff, the big shorts have dug themselves into such a deep enough hole that it’s hard seeing them buying back short positions without incurring steep realized losses, which would also be for the very first time.

Since the single most important price factor is whether the 7 big shorts will be able to cap and turn prices lower or will fail and instead rush to cover and set off a discontinuous event to the upside, let’s examine the prospects for either outcome as objectively as possible.  There can be no doubt that the 7 big shorts are holding, by a wide margin, their largest ever net gold and silver short positions and at the largest open losses ever – more than double the previous largest open losses held in 2016. It is this circumstance that creates, simultaneously, the elements of extreme danger and motivation to the 7 big shorts.

Never have the big shorts been more motivated to rig a selloff and never have they been in such jeopardy should they fail to do so. Simply put, the stakes have never been higher. The last time we were in this position was twelve years ago, when Bear Stearns was the largest short seller in COMEX gold and silver futures and on a rapid journey to self-destruction. Upfront, at that time I had no idea Bear Stearns was the big COMEX gold and silver short seller and would not learn of this until months later. But, as it turns out, the lessons of Bear Stearns’ collapse reverberate more loudly each passing day.

It is nothing short of astounding that more don’t point that Bear Stearns’ collapse as being closely connected to its short positions in COMEX gold and silver futures.  In early January 2008, Bear Stearns’ stock was selling for more than $90/share. Little more than two months later, it would fail and agree to be taken over by JPMorgan for $2/share. Over that same time, gold prices soared by $200 to more than $1000/oz, the highest level in history and silver rose by $5 to $21/oz, its highest price in 30 years. How could the largest short seller not get hurt by that price action?

Do you think it could possibly be just a coincidence that Bear Stearns failed on the very same day (March 17, 2008) that gold and silver hit those record high prices? Or that within days of its takeover by JPMorgan that gold and silver prices would fall by nearly $100 and $4 respectively, once the carcass of Bear Stearns was discarded and JPM was running the show?

The most shameful aspect of the Bear Stearns’ debacle was that the federal commodities regulator, the CFTC, not only presided over the sordid affair, but then went out of its way to flat out lie to the public about there being no problem with big concentrated shorts in COMEX silver. Huh? The biggest short seller just went out of business on the same day prices hit record highs and the agency in charge lied and pretended all was well. At the very least, a responsible agency would have worked to make sure such a failure would never occur again by instituting the one sure preventive measure to head off a repeat of Bear’s failure, namely, by insisting on legitimate position limits. Instead, 12 years later we are presented with proposed limits so high that they would limit no one.

I can’t help but resurrect the failure of Bear Stearns to highlight the current plight of the 7 big shorts. In reviewing the COT data from that time, there is not the slightest evidence that Bear made any attempt to buy back its short positions – it just rode the gold and silver price rise out and actually added new short positions, similar to the behavior of the 7 big shorts today. And, just as the CFTC stood by doing nothing back then, it is doing the same today.

Back in 2008, JPMorgan was called on to take over Bear Stearns, but that option doesn’t appear viable today, what with the bank about to be charged with some type of criminal manipulation of gold and silver prices by the Justice Department.  Ironically, the bank’s woes seem to stem from the dirty market tricks and traders JPMorgan acquired when it took over Bear Stearns.  Besides, JPM has already immunized itself from higher gold and silver prices by accumulating physical metal for the past 9 years and it’s hard to see how it would benefit from rescuing a big gold and silver short in trouble today.

That’s not to say that the 7 big shorts can’t rig some type of selloff and must be considered as dangerous as cornered wild animals. For decades, the big shorts have always prevailed in the end, a record thoroughly documented (with the exception of Bear Stearns). In fact, about the only plausible reason to expect another sharp selloff, aside from the desperation on the big shorts, is the fact they have yet to fail and resort to buying back shorts on higher prices.

And I continue to be unfazed by silver’s relative weakness compared to gold, chalking it up to the simple fact that silver continues to be the most manipulated market in the world, as evidenced by its concentrated short position being larger than any commodity in terms of actual world production. The fact that the 7 big shorts have been hurt much more on gold than they have on silver is cause for cheer, not dismay. My premise resides on the reasoning that anyone foolish enough to be short massive quantities of gold derivatives is likely to be just as fool hardy to be massively short silver, making it very likely that the 7 big shorts overlap in shorting both gold and silver. If, as and when the big shorts capitulate on gold, they are not likely to hang tough on silver.

All that said, conditions certainly appear different today than they were at the price highs of 2008 or 2011. For the record, gold is higher by 65% of its price high in 2008 and down less than 15% from its all-time highs of 2011. By contrast, silver is lower by more than 10% from its highs of 2008 and down an incredible 65% from its 2011 highs. But it’s not just where prices are now compared to where they were back then that catches my attention – it’s something very different.

To be frank, I can’t dismiss the feeling that it may not be long at all before the big shorts begin to throw in the towel and start to panic and try to cover to the upside. Should that occur, the world of precious metals will be radically different than anything we have experienced, regardless of how long that experience may go back.  Quite literally, the operating mechanics of the market will be turned upside down if the big shorts move to indiscriminately buy back shorts on higher prices, instead of patiently waiting to engineer selloffs in which to cover.

In fact, I have trouble not seeing silver as the ultimate asymmetrical trade, meaning that based on what the 7 big shorts may do, the potential upside in silver is completely out of proportion from the potential downside. This is subjective, of course, but I would define the downside potential in silver as little more than 10% or so, say no mor

e than $2 from current levels. I’m not expecting silver to drop that much, but if the big shorts work their typical manipulative magic, a drop of that much falls within the realm of possibility. Such a drop would take silver decisively below its 50 and 200 day moving averages and send prices back to levels not seen since last summer.

Please remember that the big shorts’ real money problem is gold and to climb out from the deep financial hole the big shorts are in, it is mandatory they smash gold prices, as smashing silver alone won’t do them  much overall good. In gold, it would take a selloff of around $250 to penetrate the 50 and 200 day moving averages and take prices back to the levels of last summer. I’m not expecting these selloffs to occur, just outlining the price landscape should a typical cleanout occur. In fact, I’m betting against such a drop. However, if selloffs of such magnitude do take place, let me say way in advance that silver will be the buy of a lifetime. It’s just that I think it qualifies as that now.

My point is this – I can’t assign precise or accurate odds on whether the big shorts will succeed yet again in rigging gold and silver prices low enough to induce a sufficient number of (mostly) managed money longs to sell and go short or they will fail in that attempt. So let’s call it 50 – 50, or even higher odds to the downside.

But while the odds may be a tossup or even more configured for a selloff, there is no comparison between the likely price responses should the big shorts succeed or fail. Complete success by the shorts suggests the downside targets outlined above, while a failure points to an upside price move out of proportion with anything previously experienced. To be specific in silver, a big short failure should translate into an up move of dollars a day for more than a few days. Call it $2 to the downside, $50 or $100 to the upside. If there is a better risk/reward ratio available, I’m not aware of it.

Ted Butler

February 27, 2020

www.butlerresearch.com

END

Alasdair Macleod: Why a bear market will lead to the dollar’s collapse

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, February 27, 2020

Falling equity markets this week are likely to signal the onset of a bear market, responding to a combination of the coronavirus spreading beyond China and persistent indications of a developing recession.

This has provoked a flight into U.S. Treasuries, with the 10-year yield falling to an all-time low of 1.31%. This will prove to be a mistake, given U.S. price inflation, which on independent estimates is running close to 10%, exposing U.S. Treasuries as badly overpriced.

… 

After this short-term response, much higher U.S. Treasury yields are inevitable. Foreigners, who possess more dollars and dollar investments than the entire U.S. gross domestic product, will almost certainly sell, driving bond yields up and the dollar down, leaving the Fed the only real buyer of U.S. Treasuries.

This article goes through the sequence of events likely to destroy value in U.S. financial assets and the dollar as well. And what goes for the United States goes for all other fiat-currencies and their financial markets. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/why-a-bear-market-…

* * *

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9862/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9871   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 111.02 POINTS OR 3.71%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 649.49 POINTS OR 2.42%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 806.27 POINTS OR 3.677%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 98.42/Euro FALLS TO 1.0930

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.16/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 45.84 and Brent: 50.82

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.59%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.12% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.29%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.71: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.16

3k Gold at $XXX silver at: XXX   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 45 dollar handle for WTI and 50 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.22 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9875 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0612 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.59%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.27% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.73%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.2114.

European Stocks, 

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 111.02 POINTS OR 3.71%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 649.69 POINTS OR 2.42%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 806.27 POINTS OR 3.67%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 3.35%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9862 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP// LAST AT 6.9862 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9871 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Is The Coronavirus Pandemic About To Become Another Spanish Flu

Authored by Michael Every of Rabobank

COVID-19 vs The Spanish Flu

Summary

  • In light of the recent outbreak in Europe, it appears a question of when –rather than whether– the COVID-19 epidemic will be declared a global pandemic
  • Countermeasures such as quarantine or travel bans remain necessary to contain the virus’ spread. This will continue to cause disruption, as policy makers chase a moving target
  • There is an increasing interest in the 1918-19 Spanish flu, and there are indeed some similarities in terms of virulence, infectiousness, and the potential attack rate.
  • Anecdotal evidence suggests a similar economic impact both despite and because of changes in society.
  • The key lesson from COVID-19 is the same as with the financial sector: complex interconnected systems greatly increase underlying risks, which are multiplicative and exponential, rather than additive and linear.

Chasing a moving target

Since the middle of January, the number-one worry for businesses, policy makers and market participants has been the outbreak of a new coronavirus known as COVID-19. In an effort to gauge its potential impact, analysts initially resorted to comparisons with the outbreak of SARS and MERS, two previous diseases resulting from coronaviruses. But we are now already way past this. It appears a question of when –rather than whether– this epidemic will be declared a global pandemic.

This is why there has been an increase in interest in previous pandemics. In particular, we have noticed a lot of comparisons with the ‘Spanish flu’, which originated in the final year of the First World War, spread rapidly, and resulted in an estimated 50-100 million deaths worldwide. So far, COVID-19 has led to more than 80,000 illnesses and 2,700 deaths, predominantly in China’s Hubei province, but more recently also in places such as South Korea, Iran, and Italy.

At the same time, we have also heard plenty of comparisons with another viral epidemic: the seasonal flu. In the US alone, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that so far this season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths. It is then argued that COVID-19 isn’t much of a big deal compared with seasonal flu, and that ‘business as usual’-conditions should return as soon as possible.

This is too complacent. Virologists have studied seasonal flu for decades. Despite the high number of illnesses, we generally have a good idea on what to expect. As the Northern Hemisphere moves towards spring, it is certain that flu cases will go down. In contrast, very little is known about COVID-19. Its basic reproduction number is also unknown, but the explosive rise in cases signal that it’s significantly higher than 1. Therefore, countermeasures such as quarantine or travel bans remain necessary to contain the virus’ spread.

The philosopher Søren Kierkegaard once wrote that “life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards”. Indeed, COVID-19 appears to be a wild card in terms of how far it will spread, how many deaths it will cause, and how severe the demand and supply shock is going to be. Let’s find out whether the Spanish flu could provide us with some pointers.

La gripe Española

The Spanish flu was a strain of avian influenza. Starting in late 1917, the virus spread across Europe, North America and Asia. Initially, it resembled seasonal flu, and those most at risk were the sick and the elderly. But around August 1918, the virus mutated to a much deadlier form, and deaths peaked between September and November 1918, eventually culminating in an estimated 500 million infections and 50-100 million fatalities. The Spanish flu is therefore the deadliest pandemic in human history, claiming many more lives than the First World War itself.

Whereas infectious diseases prior to the Spanish flu had mostly spread along trade routes (the 14th century Black Death is a good example of how intensified contact along dense networks increases a disease’s potential), the global context of the First World War appeared to enable the great spread of this flu. There was a lot of movement and interaction between people –with and without guns– and transmission was facilitated by extremely poor sanitary and health conditions.

The pandemic occurred in three waves with different characteristics. The first originated in early March 1918, and was a relatively mild one. The second wave was extremely deadly and came in the autumn of 1918. The third and final wave took place in the winter of 1919. Virologists have proposed several mechanisms to explain why this flu came in waves, including viral evolution (e.g. mutations), environmental changes (e.g. the weather) and behavioral changes in response to the pandemic (e.g. containment efforts), but there appears no real consensus of the interactions of these factors. This is partially due to data limitations and a lack of expertise at that time.

It has also been hypothesized that the unique circumstances of the First World War altered the virus’s natural selection process. Typically, the dangerous strains make their hosts very sick, who then recognize their symptoms relatively easily and move either into quarantine or pass away rapidly. These strains tend to die out relatively quickly – even if it is with their hosts, in the case of Ebola, for example. Milder strains, on the other hand, make people only mildly ill. Their hosts will have a stronger tendency to remain active in public life, and to expose others with these milder strains. One benefit of this is that it (partially) improves immunity to the more aggressive strains. In the First World War, however, very sick soldiers were sent on very crowded trains to even more overcrowded field hospitals, while the mildly ill remained at the front. This eventually helped spread deadlier strains in the second half of 1918, wreaking havoc in those parts of the world were the milder strains hadn’t presented themselves yet.

Comparisons with COVID-19

A rather similar epidemic?

As it stands now, COVID-19 seems to be a virus with relatively modest virulence: the case fatality rate being estimated to be around 2%, much lower than SARS or MERS. However, it has relatively high infectiousness. with the initial estimates of R0 –the basic reproduction number– are around 2.5. Simply put, this means that each case can generate 2.5 other cases. This may change over time, as people adjust their behavior, yet the relatively long incubation period for COVID-19 (perhaps up to 27 days) ensures that people can carry and transmit the virus without showing any symptoms.

The Spanish flu had a case-fatality rate of more than 2.5%, although estimates vary, and a reproduction number in the range of 2.0–3.0 in cities (which is what we should look at now, given the population shift from rural areas to urban areas). In other words, if countermeasures are as ineffective in containing the virus as they were in 1918-1919, when they were arguably non-existent, it could be argued that the current virus has a potential attack rate of 60-80%. We can therefore learn from the Spanish flu that as long as this virus remains transmissible but relatively mild, it has the potential to spread rapidly around the world. This pessimistic theoretical approach has been backed up by the Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch.

What’s in a name? The rose still stinks regardless

The origins of the Spanish flu remain shrouded in mystery, even though it is generally accepted that there was very little Spanish about it. Instead, Spain was a neutral country in the war and the freedom of its press was greater than in the warring nations. As a consequence, there were lots of reports about the virus’ devastating effects in Spain, while in most other European countries any information that was likely to impact morale or indicate weakness was strongly censored.

We can draw a parallel here. Even though China has now taken extreme precautionary measures to limit the spread of COVID-19, they were rather late in their response. The authorities have also acknowledged this recently. But as the Chinese government continues to control the flow of information it is likely that a wide distrust in the officially published data on cases and fatalities will remain. The same holds true in Iran, for example, while many other countries, even the US, are not really testing their populations to any real extent: no tests means no cases – but it does not mean no virus is present.

But does that still matter at this point? While the lack of good and timely information potentially contributed to the initial spread of the virus, the genie is now out of the bottle. Moreover, whether the virus is or is not present does not seem to be altering the pattern of public behavior much. With full transparency of the risks people generally go into panic-buying mode and then into a voluntary lockdown almost as aggressively as they do under a state-imposed quarantine: for example, Chinese restaurants are deserted, even in areas of countries with no reported virus links.

The public reaction in some countries to date already seems to echo the panic seen in 1918-19.

Not W-shaped, but J-shaped

The curve of influenza deaths by age has historically been U-shaped, but the Spanish flu had a W-shaped curve. It was extremely deadly for those in the 19-40 age cohort, who are usually least vulnerable to viruses. This is in stark contrast to the mortality rates for COVID-19, which seems to have the worst impact on those aged over 65 and/or with co-morbidity factors such as diabetes, lung and/or heart conditions. This would then be a J-shaped curve.

The figures below are based on a study that examined data from 72,314 patients and was carried out by a group of experts at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. This would seem to argue for COVID-19 to present a much less significant threat to the global economy than its predecessor a century ago. However, we would argue that this overlooks some mitigating factors.

Notably, the population profile of developed countries today, where the most economic damage could be done, skews significantly higher than it did back in 1918-19 in its own J-shape. This means that while younger people have less to worry about with COVID-19 than with Spanish flu, there are more of those who are potentially most vulnerable to the current virus. For example, the average life expectancy in the US was around 56 years in 1919, well below the 65+ band where COVID-19 seems to do the most damage today. Moreover, more than 16% of the US is aged over 65, and so most at risk from the virus, and that rises to 27% in Japan, 23% in Italy, 22% in Portugal, 21% in Germany, and 20% in France.

Second, although healthcare today is vastly superior to that of the early 20th century in almost all locations, which is a huge comfort, it is also much more expensive than the relatively simple treatments available in 1918-19, and hence more rationed. While a fully-equipped ICU may ensure a better and faster recovery from a virus, how many ICU beds would be available to patients if the elderly demographic were to fall victim to COVID-19 en masse in each country? They would be overwhelmed, as we already see from normal seasonal flu epidemics in the UK, and currently in China, a country which despite aging rapidly still only has around 12% of its citizens aged over 65. Meanwhile, in emerging economies with a much younger demographic, which is a positive, the public healthcare systems are generally far weaker and less prepared, meaning that the virus can again potentially still wreak havoc.

In short, COVID-19 could still potentially compare with the Spanish flu – in a worst-case scenario.

Fear and trembling, indeed

From a purely economic perspective, there isn’t a lot of data which we can use to examine the impact of the Spanish flu with any sort of precision given the absence of detailed national accounts data in most countries. Clearly, however, 1918-19 was a totally different structure for a virus to hit. Agriculture still accounted for a far larger share of GDP than today, and rural economies were still relatively more important: in those areas, the virus spread less rapidly due to lower population density.

By contrast, the bulk of today’s economy is about the urban environment and services, the former the prime environment for virus transmission. Moreover, both cities and services are hit hardest by any virus lockdown, making the modern economy arguably even more susceptible than in 1918-19 despite our advances in technology and communications. For example, a 2009 UK study found that even in a mild pandemic scenario the economic cost would be 0.5-1.0% of GDP, rising to 4.3% of GDP, and potentially even higher, in the case of a severe “high fatality” scenario. (Please see our recent special report on the potential global economic impact of the virus.)

Clearly, however, there are already some worrying parallels between Spanish flu and COVID-19. For example, this paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis contains some anecdotes that any person who reads today’s business news might very well recognize. We’ve picked just three:

  1. “Merchants in Little Rock, Arkansas say their business has declined 40%. Others estimate the decrease at 70%.”
  2. “The only business in Little Rock in which there has been an increase in activity is the drug store.”
  3. “Physicians report they are kept too busy combating the disease to report the number of their patients and have little time to devote to other matters.”

More broadly, the authors also surveyed economic research and conclude that most of the evidence indicates that the effects of the 1918-19 pandemic were short-term. Then again, there was a lot of euphoric post-war reconstruction that needed to be done in 1919 in Europe at least, which flowed through to the US economy to some extent. Today’s businesses seem to find it hard to locate profitable investment opportunities despite ultra-low rates, and a further sharp drop in global demand is all that they need.

The Fed also found that back in 1918-19 “a decrease in the supply of manufacturing workers that resulted from influenza mortalities would have had the initial effect of reducing manufacturing labor supply, increasing the marginal product of labor and capital per worker, and thus increasing real wages”. Yet another study on the impact of the 1918 pandemic on Swedish economic performance found robust evidence that “the influenza had no discernible effect on earnings” but that it instead led to “a significant increase in poverty rates” – obviously as the state played a much smaller counter-cyclical role in 1919 than it does in 2020.

In today’s economic environment, where wage growth has proved almost universally sticky to the downside, we find it very hard to believe that COVID-19 will lead to an increase in real wages – at least near term. Rather, for developed economies with ever more ‘gig’ workers and self-employed, even in developed economies, an increase in poverty appears far more likely, ceteris paribus.
In short, the 1918-19 Spanish Flu massively disrupted a global economy already shattered by the First World War (1914-18). COVID-19, while so far much less virulent in some key respects, also looks potentially able to do a huge amount of damage to a modern global economy with its own pre-existing health conditions.

‘Stating’ the obvious

However, unlike in 1918-19, the state will almost certainly step in: populations, and markets, will demand it. Fiscal spending will accelerate hugely, with little concern over deficits, just as would be the case in a war. Even traditionally-prudent Hong Kong, hard hit by both political unrest and now COVID-19, has just announced a HKD10,000 (USD1,274) fiscal transfer for each adult permanent resident to try to jump-start the economy. Yet can a virus-hit emerging market do the same? That seems highly unlikely. Indeed, some emerging markets are incapable of testing for COVID-19 and others are charging for doing so (and for treating it), which ensures the poor will try to avoid reporting any illness. As such, the virus could have a ‘home base’ to linger in and spread from.

Even in richer economies physical bottle-necks, e.g., ICU beds, would remain for a long time. No other country can build a new hospital in just a few days as China just has (though the finished product is of questionable quality according to some reports). Imagine a global pandemic with a shortage of key inputs, such as masks: even China, the world’s workshop, experienced this recently. In the worst case we would see shortages of masks, and drugs, and beds, and nurses and doctors. Naturally, the public cry for wider and better healthcare would grow the deeper COVID-19 bites. As such, the potential flow-on effects from a worst-case virus scenario may be as socio-economically substantial as the revolutionary European social reforms that followed the end of World War 1.

Conclusion: just a passing fever?

Indeed, having considered “sick-stemic risk” stemming from COVID-19, we also need to consider the following: against a political tailwind blowing towards right-wing populism anyway, as explored in last year’s The Age of Rage; with businesses already rethinking their global strategies in the wake of the US-China trade war; and with a health-scare now seeing voters panic and look for answers, will we see a more pronounced shift towards anti-globalization movements in the wake of the virus?

The prevailing political trend of “national security” will likely also come into play: “How can it be,” populations will ask, “that we have no local production of virus masks, or drugs? Surely we need to keep them for ourselves first! Why are we allowing foreigners in when they might be infected? Let’s prioritize health and not markets!”

Deglobalization will arguably accelerate – and that is before we address the issue of how states will be able to pay for the higher healthcare spending that populations will demand, which does not sit alongside a small-government, free-trade globalization that we have grown accustomed to.

For now we can see that in the short-term there will undoubtedly be far less global travel and much less trade: we already see that. In the long-term it all depends on how COVID-19 plays out.

If it passes quickly, then just as in 2008-09 the key structural lessons on systemic risk of globalization will arguably be ignored in favour of the obvious near-term benefits, while lip-service is paid to the risks in public. However, should COVID-19 spread and linger, meaning that each new journey, each new encounter means a risk of infection with a 1 in 5 chance of serious illness and a 1 in 50 chance of death (based on data so far), then things may change very significantly on many socio-economic fronts. After all, the word “quarantine” emerged from the established practice in Venice of holding visiting sailors off its coast for 40 days to ensure they did not carry any disease.

To repeat, the lessons of COVID-19 are far older than the century-old Spanish flu: complex interconnected systems may produce what look like superior outcomes/returns in the short-term, but they also greatly increase underlying risks that will eventually emerge at far greater cost. These are multiplicative and exponential rather than additive and linear. Markets still aren’t pricing such outcomes, even after the recent equity sell-off.

Let’s conclude with Søren Kierkegaard again: his seminal work was titled “Fear and Trembling”, which seems appropriate enough today looking at COVID-19 vs. Spanish flu. However, he also argues for a leap of faith and states that “Hope is a passion for the possible.” Indeed.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

At Least 22 Turkish Soldiers Killed In Russian Airstrike; Erdogan Holds Emergency Meeting

Within hours of a meeting between Turkish and Russian diplomats in Ankara ending which saw the Turkish delegation urge its counterparts to immediately establish a cease-fire in Idlib, there are new reports of that dozens of Turkish soldiers have been killed by a new wave of Russian airstrikes.

Reporters on the ground in Syria say that between 32 and 37 Turkish soldiers were killed. Turkish state sources have confirmed at least 22 dead with scores wounded.

Lindsey Snell

@LindseySnell

TFSA says 32 confirmed so far https://twitter.com/dannymakkisyria/status/1233115402743504897 

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

HUGE: Reports suggest dozens of Turkish soldiers killed by Russian airstrikes

Journalist Lindsey Snell has cited Turkish Free Syrian Army (TFSA) sources which confirm 32 Turkish national troop deaths so far in the strike.

Amid the breaking reports The Washington Post’s Liz Sly says Turkish President Erdogan has called an emergency security meeting of his military leaders over the alleged Russian attack.

Despite widespread initial reports that it was a Russian airstrike, Turkish state media has thus far used the interesting wording of “Assad regime forces” conducting the strike and not Russia.

Liz Sly

@LizSly

Reports coming in of a large number of Turkish casualties in a Russian or Syrian government air strike in Idlib. Erdogan is hosting an emergency security meeting. Turkey has dug itself into quite a hole in Syria. How does it get itself out.

This after heavy clashes today in Idlib towns have been ongoing related to the Syrian Army’s major offensive in the south of the province.

Regional reporter Emma Beals writes:

Initial reports say a large number of Turkish soldiers killed today in Idlib. Lots of activity now at Reyhanli hospital in Turkey. Erdogan chairing an emergency meeting right now, with CHP party chairing their own tonight as well.

“If all confirmed, could signal major escalation,” she added of the breaking story.

“Updated reports indicate a two-story building used by Turkey’s military as a command headquarters was leveled in a targeted Russian airstrike,” Middle East Institute’s Charles Lister writes

“Requests by Ankara to fly in helicopters to evacuate casualties were rejected by Hmeymin Airbase; casualties were driven by land,” he added.

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

Unconfirmed footage showing Russian strike on Turkish forces https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1233120969927069696 

And immediately on the heels of today’s dramatic escalation, Sen. Lindsey Graham is urging Trump to impose a No Fly Zone over Idlib.

Jack Detsch@JackDetsch_ALM

Graham calling for Pentagon to establish a no-fly zone in Russian-controlled airspace in Idlib likely a difficult sell for the Trump admin. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Thurs that US has not had “discussion about reengaging in the civil war”https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/authors/jack-detsch.html  https://twitter.com/JackDetsch_ALM/status/1233123415390859264 

Jack Detsch@JackDetsch_ALM

Just in: Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham pushing for an aggressive US response in Syria amid reports of 30+ Turkish troops killed in a Russian airstrike in Idlib, calling on POTUS to establish a no-fly zone “to stop the slaughter and get ahead of a humanitarian crisis”

Turkey appears to have cut off Twitter access to the entire country.

NetBlocks.org

@netblocks

⚠️ Confirmed: Twitter has become unavailable across as of 11:30 p.m. local time for users of national provider Turk Telekom following alleged attack on Turkish troops in ; other social media currently unaffected; developing situation 📉

View image on Twitter
END
IRAN

Iran’s Clerics “Put World At Risk” – Urging Pilgrims To Visit Qom Shrine, Outbreak Epicenter, As “House For Cure”

Already sanctions-wracked Iran now has the worst coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East. The official death toll has climbed to 26, with 240 confirmed cases (with thousands still being tested); however, the true numbers are believed much, much higher – also given at least seven government leaders have been infected, including the vice president and a former ambassador to the Vatican and Egypt, Hadi Khosroshahi, who died of the illness, as well as Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi. Media reports suggest the true number of infected could now be closer to 20,000.

And yet in the latest speech by President Hassan Rouhani, he vowed not to quarantine any cities, and ranted against the virus becoming “a weapon at the hands of our enemies,” as part of “propaganda” against the Islamic Republic.

However, Friday prayers have been ordered canceled by Tehran authorities in 23 cities across the country, including Qom, and schools remain closed until at least next week, but the Islamic Republic’s powerful clerical establishment has remained defiant. As the WSJ reports“Some worshipers in Qom are defying those orders and pushing clerics to continue delivering prayers, say residents of the city.”

 

Qom shrine, via AFP.

“The signs of public defiance in Iran signal challenges ahead for authorities across the region that are hosting large numbers of religious pilgrims or confronting the prospect of their citizens returning from infected areas, particularly in Iran,” the WSJ notes further.

At a moment nearby Saudi Arabia has taken the unprecedented step of blocking all visas for the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, which sees on average two to three million plus visitors per year, Shia clerics in the holy city of Qom appear defiant. The city is home to one of the most revered shrines in Shia Islam, which sees some 20 million religious pilgrims a year. “Health experts have expressed concern about Iran’s decision not to restrict access to the shrine of Hazrat Masumeh in Qom,” the BBC noted previously.

Though political and health officials are busy urging Iranians not to visit Qom, considered ground zero for Iran’s outbreak, it appears the powerful clerical establishment has held sway, preventing total closure of some among key sites. In fact, Qom’s Shia clerics are actually still positively encouraging travel to the city’s shrines for “healing”. The WSJ cites custodian of the holiest site in the city, the Fatima Masumeh Shrine, as announcing:

“We consider this holy shrine a house for cure. House for cure means people would come here to get cured from mental and physical diseases,” the custodian, Ayatollah Mohammad Saeedi, said in a video interview published Wednesday by Jamaran, an Iranian news site.

It should be open, and people should be encouraged to come here. Of course, we believe caution is required, and we follow hygienic issues.”

“We have no plan to quarantine any district or any city. We only quarantine individuals. If an individual has early symptoms, that person must be quarantined,” Rouhani said in a Wednesday speech.

 

Mask wearing Shia pilgrims visit the shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf, Iraq. Image source: AP.

Underscoring that it’s the clerics running the show in Iran, even as the deadly outbreak spreads, the BBC reports further of the emerging divide between politicians in Tehran and powerful clerics on the ground at Shia holy sites in Qom:

Its custodian has insisted it should be kept open as a “house for cure”.

This even as borders have been shut, given Iran has lately been the source of infections in neighboring countries of Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Pakistan.

An extensive investigative report published Thursday in The Daily Beast says Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is involved in an information crackdown, geared toward concealing the true numbers of virus cases:

As The Daily Beast’s partner publication, IranWire, revealed in an exclusive report Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has tried to address the epidemic by telling doctors to shut up about it, much as Chinese authorities in Wuhan did, disastrously, when the disease was just starting to spread last December.

The “official figures” from Iran give the game away. At last count, 16 people have died from COVID-19, but only 95 cases had been confirmed. As Wired UK points out, that would be a death rate of about 17 percent, when the data available from China, where there are huge numbers to work with, suggests the death rate is closer to 2 percent. The statistics don’t add up. Canadian researchers cited by Wired suggest the Iran outbreak probably involves more than 18,000 people, and counting.

As the devastating report observes, Iran’s leaders are putting the world at risk.

 

Teams are disinfecting the shrine of Hazrat Masumeh in Qom, via BBC/AFP.

One doctor cited in the Daily Beast report alleged Iran’s government has no plans for containing the epidemic. Officials have “no other choice except secrecy,” he said. “This will disgrace the Islamic Republic, if it becomes known that its government is clueless. But this can lead to a humanitarian disaster.”

Meanwhile, Turkey has announced that for 72 hours it will open it’s previously sealed border with Idlib province, making good on prior Erdogan threats to “open the gates” of refugee hordes on Europe. It must be remembered that Iran and Turkey share a border, and that the region is full of vulnerable refugee “tent cities”.

By all appearances we could still be in the earliest phases of a global disaster of apocalyptic proportions in the making. Certainly Iran’s clerics are helping to bring the region and the globe to the brink.

6.Global Issues

“They’re Really, Really Suffering”: Chinatowns Worldwide Experience Devastation As Business Grinds To A Halt

It’s not just in China where the effects of the novel coronavirus are being felt – it’s in Chinatowns situated worldwide. Fear is gripping people around the world and, coupled with the uncertainty that is inevitable with the WHO and world leaders dragging their feet, it is keeping people out of Chinese businesses. 

As Chinese citizens of other countries try to go about business as usual in the midst of what is likely a growing pandemic, business is collapsing. Lily Zhou’s Chinese restaurant in Australia, for instance, has seen business fall 70%, according to Bloomberg. It now has a board out front where “The restaurant has been sanitized!” is written in Chinese.

Zhou says at this rate, she can only stay in business “at most three months”.

The affect on the local economy has been so bad that the neighborhood of Eastwood is planning on setting up a A$500,000 assistance fund.

But the affects aren’t just being felt in Australia. There are Chinatowns and Chinese businesses in places like Sydney, New York and San Francisco that are all feeling the impact.

99 Favor Taste, a hotpot and BBQ restaurant in lower Manhattan, is now seating customers immediately. The restaurant usually has a half hour wait on weekdays to get a table. “Booths are empty,” said manager Echo Wu. 

Wu believes that the fear keeping people out of Chinese businesses is “irrational”. He says customers have even gone so far as to phone ahead to check and make sure the food wasn’t being imported directly from China. 

Wu said: “They may have a bias toward Chinese restaurants now. I hope people can be more reasonable. After all, there’s no cases in town yet.”

In Toronto, it’s a similar scene. Business at the Rol San Dim Sum restaurant is down as much as 30% and the sidewalks of Chinatown are quiet. The restaurant’s manager said it was “of course” due to the coronavirus.

At the Chinatown in Manchester, U.K., students stopped showing up after returning from the Chinese New Year holiday. The head of the local business association said: “There are less visitors, less customers. They’re really, really suffering — at the moment we haven’t come up with any solution yet. The group is discussing options such as opening a weekend market with free food tasting and discounts to bring back clients.”

San Francisco’s Chinatown has seen its lunch rush “evaporate”. One business owner, Henry Chen, said: “Usually we have a line out the door. There are less people on the street. Lunch, dinner, breakfast, there is no business.”

Philip Wu, who manages a hot pot restaurant in Sydney’s Chinatown, says that lifting travel restrictions is crucial for business. He has seen a 60% drop in business and has asked all 100 of his workers to cut their hours to four days a week.

“If the government says ‘Okay, we’ll stop the ban on the flights, and the people can travel to Australia,’ then I think the business will go up very quickly, because tens of thousands of Chinese people will be coming back,” he said.

But that looks extremely unlikely. And these are still just minor examples compared to the disruption in places like China and Hong Kong, where schools are closed and people are stuck in their apartments under quarantine. These types of lockdowns are now spreading to Italy and other neighboring countries.

And, unfortunately, we feel like it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

nd

“Hundreds Of Millions Of Dollars Lost” As Shipping Rates Collapse Due To “Hugely Disruptive” Virus

Covid-19’s effect on the global economy, energy markets, and the shipping industry have been absolutely disastrous, borderline crisis, if not, has already triggered the onset of the next financial crisis.

OPEC slashed its oil demand forecast earlier this month, and Goldman Sachs doubled down on its bearish oil take and has cut its oil price target by $10 to $53 for the year, as a result of a “demand shock” that has collapsed Chinese oil demand by at least 20%, or as much as 4 million barrels per day.

The plunge in energy demand in China, which by the way, is the world’s largest oil importer, has stranded oil cargoes off the coast of the country and led to an oil tanker parking lot in Asia Pacific waters.

The gears of the global economy have jammed, as demand and supply shocks from China risks triggering the next economic crisis.

Paralysis is quickly developing across the global economy, as sea and land ports in China have reduced activity. When supply chains are severed, economies on both sides of the world are damaged.

International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) Secretary-General Guy Platten told Reuters on Wednesday that revenue shocks have already hurt shippers this year.

Platten said tanker rates had plunged upwards of 80% since the virus outbreak began last month.

He said the virus is “hugely disruptive” for the shipping industry as demand for raw materials from emerging and developed economies has dramatically slowed.

“On the finished goods side of it you’ve got empty containers for example in China and you’ve got a shortage of containers in the (United) States because the manufactured goods are not getting out of China and being transported around the world. It’s affecting all the supply chain throughout the shipping industry,” he said.

Platten said shipping rates have crashed in various vessel classes. “We know that container lines are doing empty sailings. It would be hundreds of hundreds of millions of dollars (that) would be in jeopardy now.”

“All we know is that there has been an absolute plunge in rates for various classes of ship … We know that container lines are doing empty sailings. It would be hundreds of hundreds of millions of dollars (that) would be in jeopardy now,” he said.

A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest container shipping company, warned last week that factories in China are currently operating below half-speed capacity, has paralyzed global supply chains.

“As factories in China are closed for longer than usual in connection with the Chinese New Year as a result of the COVID-19, we expect a weak start of the year,” Maersk warned. 

Noel Hacegaba, the Deputy Executive Director of Administration and Operations for the Port of Long Beach, California, was featured on CNBC Wednesday afternoon, warned that Long Beach, the second-largest containerized port in the US – is experiencing weakness in volume, down 6% y/y in Jan, and down another 6% y/y in Feb. For the quarter, he said the port could see a decline of 12% y/y.

Hacegaba said in the last couple of weeks, truck and rail operations at the port that extends into California have plunged “to a tune of 20 to 25%.”

He warned that economic paralysis in China would cause some goods just to be canceled altogether because many are seasonal, adding that a slowdown in China’s economy is bad news for the US.

For more color on why shipping rates and commodity prices have plunged – we specifically outlined in semi-official data from China that business conditions are printing at depression levels (as a reminder, China has been responsible for 60% of the world’s credit creation in the last decade – if China’s catches the flu – so does everyone):

To summarize, the outbreak of the virus has crashed China’s economy, resulting in plunging demand for commodity/energy products and the need to ship raw materials and or finished goods across the world.

The bear market in crude, forced by China’s implosion, suggests the global economy is about to plunge into a recession.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.09938 DOWN .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS/CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.82 DOWN 0.800 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2870   DOWN   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3454 UP .0065 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 83basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 111.02 POINTS OR 3.71% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 649.49 POINTS OR 2.42%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 3.35%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 649.49 POINTS OR 2.42%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 111.02POINTS OR 3.71%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  3.37% 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 806.29  POINTS OR 3.67%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1648.00

silver:$16.91-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.27% !!! DOWN 5 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.73 DOWN 5   IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.4 DOWN 8 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.35% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.16%  DOWN 3   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.28%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,10 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 78 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.61% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.71% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1025  UP     .0028 or 28 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.98 DOWN 1.64 OR YEN UP 164  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2809 DOWN .0077 POUND DOWN 77  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 7 basis points to 1.3395

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9920    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9798  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  6.2469 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.16%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 11 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.16 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.68 DOWN 12 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.13 DOWN 38  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 215.79  OR 3.42%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 477.11 POINTS OR 3.86%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 185.70 POINTS 3.38%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 262.70 POINTS or 2.92%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 816.16POINTS OR 3.58%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 44.76 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 50.06 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    66.84  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.57 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 57 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.61 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.66//

 

 

BRENT :  62.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.03…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.57..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.177 ( UP 49   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.27 DOWN .667 (YEN UP 67 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.69 DOWN 53 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2554 UP 119  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6298

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.86   UP 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3034 UP 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8800  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8740 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 357.28 POINTS OR 1.39%

 

NASDAQ closed UP.04 POINTS OR 0.01%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  40.11 CLOSED UP .95

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.580%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

It Begins: Hawaii Stores Empty Out On Coronavirus “Panic Buying”

Hawaii is urging residents to prepare for a potential breakout of Covid-19 amid new warnings earlier this week from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that the deadly virus quickly spreading across the world could cause a “significant disruption” to American life.

Although there are no confirmed virus cases in Hawaii (the state Health Department says 80 people are self-monitoring for the coronavirus in Hawaii after recent travel to China), the CDC’s warning sparked a buying frenzy among residents this week as they emptied store shelves of food and supplies.

Twitter handle @zoeywoeyzoey said, “Hawaii Sam’s club is sold out of toilet paper hand sanitizer alcohol.”

Zoey has crazzzyyy eyes 💞@zoeywoeyzoey

Hawaii Sam’s club is sold out of toilet paper hand sanitizer alcohol

View image on Twitter
See Zoey has crazzzyyy eyes 💞‘s other Tweets

KHON Honolulu said flatbed carts “were overflowing with boxes of canned goods, bottled water, toilet paper, and paper towels” at Costco’s Iwilei location.

“The essentials toilet paper, paper towels, bottles of water, soap, a lot of Clorox stuff, cleaning supplies… I figure with all the coronavirus scare and everything, it’s better to be safe than sorry,” said Honolulu resident Keane Zakimi.

Hawaii Foodbank told KHON that residents are panic buying non-perishable foods and medical masks. They said the same fear that is seen in Asia has now spread to Hawaii.

“If there’s no inventory at the store, then there’s very little for stores to donate to the Foodbank and also at home if you’re stocking up and hoarding for your family, the last thing you’re thinking about is making a donation. It impacts us in a very great way,” said Hawaii Foodbank President Ron Mizutani.

Honolulu Star-Advertiser said retailers across the state are experiencing shortages of 3M N95 masks. We noted last month that masks were selling out across the US. Prices of the masks have doubled or tripled since mid-January.

It’s only a matter of time before a virus case is confirmed in the state, and this could lead to an epic bust of its top industry: tourism, resulting in a recession for the island economy.

END

“Emergency Is On The Table”: Goldman, BofA Brace For Crisis, Predict Multiple Rate Cuts In Coming Weeks

When it comes to its market, rates and economic forecasts, Goldman has long been one of Wall Street’s favorite contrarian, Gartman-like indicators: i.e., always wrong. From its notoriously terrible FX predictions (which we so bad, two of its recent global FX strategists quit because they literally couldn’t get one call right), from its atrocious STIR predictions, expecting four rate hikes in 2019 back in December 2018 as the Fed was set to reverse its tightening bias, and not only cut rates 3 times but launch QE4, to its perpetually optimistic S&P and economic forecasts, and last but not least, always incorrectly calling for higher yields by year end (any year end), it was easy to forget that Goldman was once one of the most respected banks on Wall Street instead of a bunch of sellside clowns whose only job was to get clients to do the opposite of what its flow traders were doing.

Which is why we were somewhat conflicted by Goldman’s latest prediction, because one day after the bank admitted that there would be no earnings growth in 2020 (after there was no EPS growth in 2019), Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius admitted his rosy US growth forecast was dead wrong, and in a note today he writes that just a few weeks ago, “we estimated that the coronavirus would subtract about 2% (annualized) from Q1 global GDP growth. Since then, our China economists have cut their growth forecast further, the risk of global supply chain disruptions has become more acute, and increasing reports of community spread have started to weigh on everyday consumer activity in some countries. These developments require a rethink of our analysis and a fuller consideration of the range of economic scenarios that could play out in coming weeks and months.

Which brings us to the reason we are conflicted: as part of Hatzius’ “rethink” of the global economic rout, he has come to a conclusion which shockingly may be correct for once, to wit:

Our new baseline scenario involves a continued slowdown in infections in China that allows for a slow recovery in high-frequency indicators of economic activity. However, it also includes moderate supply chain disruptions in the global goods-producing sector, as well as a hit to consumer spending and business activity from national outbreaks that go well beyond China and the other countries (such as Korea and Italy) that have been affected so far.

Our analysis shows effects on quarter-on-quarter annualized global GDP growth of -5pp in Q1 and -2pp in Q2, followed by a rebound in the second half of 2020, leaving our full-year global growth forecast at about 2%.

Yet even if all this is correct (it will be), Hatzius will still be wrong because he refuses to “go there”, and despite now expecting the worst hit the global economy since the global financial crisis, he merely anticipates “a short-lived global contraction that stops short of an outright recession.”

Why no recession? Because the bank which until Friday expected no rate cuts in 2020, suddenly expects no less than three rate cuts, and all of them taking place in the next three months:

… we would expect some monetary easing from a number of the world’s major central banks, including 75bp of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve through June starting with a 25bp cut in March. Although moderate Fed rate cuts are unlikely to be very powerful, the committee will probably be reluctant to disappoint market expectations for substantial rate cuts for fear of tightening financial conditions further.

Of course, by now Hatzius must be surely getting tired of being called the macroeconomic “Thomas Stolper” (long-time readers know what that means), and as a result he has quietly inserted two additional scenarios just to cover all his bases. While the “upside” scenario is meaningless as it has no hope in hell of occurring, it’s the downside one that is more ominous:

We also consider two alternative scenarios. The upside scenario assumes that the global spread of the virus is brought under control quickly and supply chain disruptions remain mostly absent; if so, global GDP would rebound in Q2, risk asset markets would recover sharply, and central banks may stay on hold. The downside scenario assumes widespread supply chain disruptions as well as domestic demand weakness across the global economy. This would involve sharp sequential contraction in global GDP in Q1 and Q2—i.e., a global recession—and probably an aggressive monetary easing campaign, including a return to the near-zero funds rate of the post-crisis period.

Notably, not even the market expects a full 3 rate cuts by the end of June, which suggests that for all its cheerful optimism, Goldman is bracing for its “downside scenario” materializing.

All of this means that after taking a lot of criticism from the unemployed, basement-dwelling macrotourists, also known as fintwit, Rabobank’s forecast of 0% rates by the end of 2020, which was made all the way back in August 2019, will be spot on.

But wait there’s more.

Now that Goldman officially broke the seal on rate cut forecasts, early on Friday afternoon, BofA rushed to one-up Goldman, and in a note from the bank’s chief economist, Michelle Meyer, now expects all those who we yesterday said were betting on 2 rate cuts in March, to make a killing. Why? Because it is now BofA’s base case that the Fed will cut rates bv 50bps, or twice, “at the March meeting to stem the panic in markets and support economic sentiment” and not only that “an emergency cut by the Fed prior to the meeting is possible – it will depend on the extent of market dysfunction.”

Some more details from BofA:

The Fed is being called into action and we expect a 50bp cut at the upcoming March 18th meeting. An emergency cut by the Fed prior to the meeting is possible – it will depend on the extent of market dysfunction. We see three key reasons for the Fed to ease.

  1. First, what looked like just a supply shock from COVID-19 as a result of broken supply chains is now also becoming a demand shock. An adverse feedback loop has developed between consumer sentiment and market participants. Fed cuts may be able break or slow that loop.
  2. Second, market movements have been sharp with a risk of becoming disorderly. The Fed learned from the Great Financial Crisis, that they must be nimble when faced with such risks. The overarching goal is to maintain access to credit and funding.
  3. And finally, remember that the Fed embraced “insurance” cuts last year, laying the groundwork for continued easy policy. They made it very clear last year that the intention is to be proactive instead of reactive, especially given the proximity to the zero lower bound and the limited toolkit.

 

ow shows, a 50bps rate cut in March is more than even the market expected as of this afternoon, so yet another bank is basically saying a crisis is imminent (unless of course, BofA is admitting that all the Fed cares about is the stock market… which it can’t do as it would mean its strategists are now irrelevant as the Fed will never allow stocks to drop):

BofA then points out that while it is a choice between 50 and 25bp, “we think the Fed will cut 50bp in the meeting as a way to stem panic. If Fed officials believe the likely outcome is that they cut more than 25bp in reaction to these events, why not deliver it at once and provide a bigger positive impulse to the economy? This is not a “normal” easing cycle where the Fed has the luxury of time to see how incremental adjustments in rates impact the economy. The Fed could benefit from providing a significant thrust of easing. The market is also fully pricing in 25bp of easing at the March meeting and it is not in the Fed’s best interest to disappoint.”

Finally, the Fed may not wait until the schedule meeting as “Emergency is on the table”

It is possible that the Fed moves more quickly in an emergency fashion. However, we think the Fed would prefer to wait for the meeting in order to have some data and greater cover to justify the cut. The emergency inter-meeting cut would purely be to stop the panic in markets while a cut at the meeting would have a broader justification.

While BofA is now “convinced of Fed action – the only debate is over the timing and magnitude” and “much will depend on the news of the virus over the next two weeks. The CDC has warned that it is only a matter of time before COVID-19 shows up in a more meaningful way in the US. If headlines remain alarming, it will fuel expectations for aggressive Fed easing. However, it is also possible that fear subsides and we enter the March meeting in a calmer state. The latter would prompt only a 25bp cut but we don’t think it will be calm enough to allow the Fed to sit on hold. In other words, good news means 25bp. Continuation of news like this week means 50bp. Worse news about the spread of the virus could prompt an emergency cut. The Fed will be nimble.”

Well, of course it will be nimble: it needs to do everything in its power to avoid a market crash which would not only undo 11 years of trillions in liquidity injections, but wipe out what little credibility the US central bank had, resulting in the biggest financial crisis – and market – crash in history.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Angry Judge Orders Hunter Biden To Appear For Deposition In Child Support Case

 

e Rock, Arkansas to give a deposition in his child support case, after a judge rejected his attempt to delay until after most of the key Democratic primary debates, according to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

He needs to make himself available unless his hair is on fire,” said Circuit Court Judge Holly Meyer during a Wednesday conference call, denying Biden’s request to delay until April. Biden’s lawyer told the court this week that the former Ukrainian gas company board member was “too busy” to appear.

Biden has been ordered to show up on March 11 or March 12 to answer questions, said Meyer, while a pre-trial hearing is scheduled for March 13.

An April deposition would have meant the 50-year-old Biden’s potentially embarrassing appearance would have happened after several decisive state primaries – including next week’s Super Tuesday, in which his father will attempt to salvage his imperiled campaign.

Hunter is being sued in the paternity case by former stripper Lunden Alexis Roberts, 28. The court determined last month that he was the father of the toddler identified as Baby Doe, after he claimed the child wasn’t his.

“My client can be available April 1, 2020,” Biden’s lawyer Brett Langon told the court this week, adding “My client cannot be available prior to that date.”

Meyer shot back with some spice: “My questions to you is, why could your client not be available until after April 1?” she asked. “All the information I have is that he’s unemployed.”

It’s not good enough for him to just say, ‘I’m not available,’” she said. “I need to know why he’s not available or where he is or what could possibly be more important than what’s going in this case.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Israeli scientists: ‘In three weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine’

Once the vaccine is developed, it will take at least 90 days to complete the regulatory process and potentially more to enter the marketplace

     “Our basic concept was to develop the technology, and not specifically a vaccine for this kind or that kind of virus,” said Dr. Chen Katz, MIGAL’s biotechnology group leader, who explained that “the scientific framework for the vaccine is based on a new protein expression vector, which forms and secretes a chimeric soluble protein that delivers the viral antigen into mucosal tissues by self-activated endocytosis, causing the body to form antibodies against the virus.”…

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

US Q4 GDP was the expected 2.1%.  US Jan Durable Goods Orders declined 0.2%, -1.4% was expected.  Ex-Transport Orders jumped 0.9%; 0.2% was expected.  Nondefense, Ex-Air Orders increased 1.1%; 0.1% was expected.  Shipment jumped 1.1%; unchanged was expected.

U.S. mulls using sweeping powers to ramp up production of coronavirus protective gear

President Donald Trump’s administration is considering invoking special powers through a law called the Defense Production Act to rapidly expand domestic production of protective masks and clothing to combat the coronavirus in the United States…    https://yhoo.it/2T5iMZv

SBI opens case on Biden’s pressure on Shokin – lawyer

(Interfax-Ukraine) – The State Bureau of Investigations (SBI) has registered a criminal case on pressure from former U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden on former Prosecutor General of Ukraine Viktor Shokin… In his motion, Shokin spoke of pressure put on him by Biden, Teleshetsky said. It is also advisable to invite the U.S. to take part in the investigation, he said, adding that he would forward the relevant request to the Prosecutor General’s Office…  https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/press-conference/643759.html

 

Blagojevich just implicated Obama in ‘Senate seat scandal,’ drops names, says ‘more to come’

“President Obama began the whole conversation because he sent someone to me as a middleman, a mediator — not unusual in politics — on the night he was elected president to say that he’d like to talk about his choice for the Senate and to see what I might be willing to ask for,” Blagojevich replied.

    “Political horse-trading, not what those corrupt prosecutors said it was.” [Bizpacreview]

    He added that the mediator was Tom Balanoff, “a big union leader” who the records show spoke at the 2008 Democrat National Convention on behalf of Obama.

https://www.lifezette.com/2020/02/watch-blagojevich-just-implicated-obama-in-senate-seat-scandal-drops-names-says-more-to-come/

 

Nadler Cancels Judiciary Hearing on FISA Reform [Cuz Dems are divided] https://buff.ly/2T2h4rQ

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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