FEB 27//WILD DAY DOW DOWN 1190 POINTS DUE TO CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC//SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS//MANY CORONAVIRUS STORIES/SWAMP STORIES.

GOLD:$1640.50  DOWN $3.45    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

Silver:$17.71   DOWN 18 CENTS. (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

ACCESS MARKETS

 

Gold : 1642.50

SILVER: 17.72

 

 

WE NOW ENTER OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK:

COMEX EXPIRES: TOMORROW FEB 25

OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRES FEB 28

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/228

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 02/26/2020 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 02/26/2020
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 22:25:44
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,640.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/26/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 02/28/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 110
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 190
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 17 10
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
690 C ABN AMRO 15
905 C ADM 6 1
991 H CME 106
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 228 228
MONTH TO DATE: 8,234

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 228 NOTICE(S) FOR 22800 OZ (0.7091 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8234 NOTICES FOR 823400 OZ  (25.611 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEB

 

 

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 296 for 1,480,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  8796 UP 5 dollars

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: 879  down 1 dollar

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL  BY A HUGE SIZED 11,975 CONTRACTS FROM 244,705 DOWN TO 226,995 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 744,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  9 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS..

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  1024 AND MAY: 5588 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  6612 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 6612 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 6612 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 33.060 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 9 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5363 CONTRACTS. OR 26.82 MILLION OZ…..   WE HAD NO LONG LIQUIDATION AND WE PROBABLY HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING,..ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO THE CRIMINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

 

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION AND THAT EXPLAINS THE RISE IN COMEX OI DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

35139 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 35139 CONTRACTS) OR 175.69 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1952 CONTRACTS OR 9.7608 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 175.69 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 20.35% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          357.30 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     175.69 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 11,975, WITH THE  9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /WEDNESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 6612 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A  STRONG SIZED  SIZED:  5363 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE 9 CENT FALL IN PRICE)//HOWEVER ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE OF LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS

THE TALLY:

i.e 6612 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 11,975 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  9 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.89 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.221 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 174% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: NOTICE(S) FOR  25,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY STRONG SIZED 6293 CONTRACTS TO 726,624 AND MOVING FURTHER FROM  OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL OF $4.45 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// WE, MOST LIKELY HAD TINY BANKER SHORT COVERING BUT NO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THAT FALL IN PRICE.  TOGETHER WITH THE HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EFP’S (SEE BELOW) OUR BANKER FRIENDS BASICALLY COULD NOT FLEECE ANY APPRECIABLE LONGS FROM ANY GOLD ARENA AND THUS OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES!  

 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 10,342 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 10,342; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 10,342.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 726,624.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5363 CONTRACTS: 6293 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 10,342 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4049 CONTRACTS OR 404,900 OZ OR 12.61 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A  LOSS OF $4.45 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 12.61  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (LOSS $4.45). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AGAIN AS WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (10,342) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN COMEX OI.(6276 OI):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4062 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING BUT NO LONG LIQUIDATION….. JUST A STRONG INCREASE IN TOTAL OI WITH ALL OF THE GAIN COMING FROM EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 178,975 CONTRACTS OR 17,897,500 oz OR 556.69 TONNES (18 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9943 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 556.69 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 556.69/3550 x 100% TONNES =15.68% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   1126.88  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            556.69  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6293 WITH THE PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK WEDNESDAY($4.45)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,342 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,342 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4089 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

10,342 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  6293 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 12.61 TONNES). AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.45 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

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OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 11,975 CONTRACTS FROM 244,710 DOWN TO 226,995 AND MOVING AWAY FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710 (SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO THE CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS EXPLAINED ABOVE

EFP ISSUANCE 6612

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  1024:  AND MAY: 5588; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6612 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 11,975 CONTRACTS TO THE 6612 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 5363 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  26.82MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE  9 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED 6612EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.40 POINTS OR 0.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 82.13 POINTS OR 0.31%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 477.96 POINTS OR 2.13%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0150 /Oil UP TO 48.06 dollars per barrel for WTI and 52.75 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0150 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0231 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6293 CONTRACTS TO 726,624 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS LOSS IN OI WAS SET WITH A  FALL OF $4.45 IN GOLD PRICING //WEDNESDAY’ COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE,.  THUS WE HAD MINIMAL BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE STRONGLY IN OPEN INTEREST..

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,342 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 10,342,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 10,342 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED 4049 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,342 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6293 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ALTHOUGH WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE OF COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. 

 

THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $4.45). BUT THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ROSE BY A GOOD  SIZED 4049 CONTRACTS ….(12.61 TONNES) WE HAD MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  4049 CONTRACTS OR 404,900 OZ OR 12.61 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  726,624 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 72.66 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,265 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,265/2200 OR 102.95% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,975 CONTRACTS FROM 244,710 DOWN TO 226,995 (AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR HUGE OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR  SMALL 9 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/WEDNESDAY. TODAY ALL OF THE LOSS OF COMEX OI IN SILVER WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION IN SILVER.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

FEB IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 5 CONTRACT SHOWING A GAIN OF 5 CONTRACTS/WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR 25,000 OZ OF ADDITIONAL SILVER OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH THEY NEGATED A FIAT BONUS

 

 

March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 18,641 contracts  DOWN TO 10,685

APRIL saw a GAIN of 164 contracts UP to 979

MAY had a good 6051 gain in oi to stand at 162,321.

 

 

 

We, today, had  0 notice(s)  for NIL, OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 505,443 contracts..volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  713,206 contracts//high volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

FEB 27

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 201.07 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
228 notice(s)
 22800 OZ
(0.7091 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(niloz)
0. TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8234 notices
823400 OZ
25.611 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had XX dealer entry:

We had XX kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:XX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XXX oz

 

we had XX deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: XXX  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else XXX

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  XX  oz

 

 

we had XX gold withdrawals from the customer account:

total gold withdrawals;  XX  oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS: XX

 

 

 

The front month of February saw its open interest RISE by 37 contracts UP to 228 contracts.  We had 26 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED   53 contracts or an additional 5300 oz will stand for delivery in NEW YORK and THUS, THEY REFUSED TO MORPH into London based FORWARDS. THEIR SEARCH FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND CONTINUES. The March non active contract month saw its OI FALL by 558 contracts DOWN to  890  The big April contract month saw its OI FALL by 5165 contracts DOWN to 514,644,.

 

We had 228 notices filed today for 22,800 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 228 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8234) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (228 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (228 x 100 oz per contract) equals 8234,00 OZ OR 25.611 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (8234 x 100 oz)  + (228OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (228 x 100 oz )which equals 823,400 oz standing OR 25.611 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a February delivery month.

 

We gained 50 contracts or 5000 oz  THAT WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 37.485 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.611 tonnes

 

total: 156.10 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 25,645 TONNES SETTLED (includes the 1.0445 tonnes of today)

 

IF WE ADD THE 7 DELIVERY MONTHS: 156.10  tonnes

 

Thus:

1556.10 tonnes of delivery –

25.645 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

 

=130.457 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 36.6300 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,353,869.021 oz or  42.111 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,177,657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,177657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,663,541.978 oz 269.49 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 27 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
5
CONTRACT(S)
(25,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  296 contracts

1,480,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had XX inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: XXX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XX oz

i)we had  XX deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   xx

into everybody else:  xxx

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.92% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/323.167 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  xxx   oz

 

we had xx withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; xxx  oz

We had xx adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.922 million

total dealer + customer silver:  323.167 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 5 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 296 x 5,000 oz = 1,480,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (5) and the number of notices served upon today 5x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 296 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (5)- number of notices served upon today (5) x 5000 oz equals 1,480,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

We gained 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards and as such negated a fiat bonus 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 209005 CONTRACTS //volume extremely high

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 289,034 CONTRACTS..,,volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 289,034 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,445 million  OZ  206.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.54% ((FEB 27/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.52% to NAV FEB 27/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.54%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.34 TRADING 15.95///DISCOUNT 2.38

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 27

FEB 26./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 27/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 934.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 770 TRADING DAYS: -3.00 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 670 TRADING DAYS: A NET 16313. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY: A STRONG GAIN OF 747000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

FEB 26\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

FEB 27.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

369.499 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.24/ and libor 6 month duration 2.20

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.21%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.22

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

JPMorgan eyes plan to tap Fed’s discount window to break stigma

 Section: 

Does this sound like an economy or financial system that’s in great shape?

* * *

By Christopher Condon and Shahien Nasiripour
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, February 25, 2020

A senior JPMorgan Chase & Co. executive said the largest U.S. bank planned to borrow funds through the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending facility in an exercise designed to break the stigma attached to that program.

Jennifer Piepszak, JPM’s chief financial officer, said today during the firm’s investor day in New York that the bank would borrow from the so-called discount window from time to time this year and had discussed the plan with regulators.

… 

The remarks come less than three weeks after Randal Quarles, the Federal Reserve’s vice chairman for banking supervision, spoke of the need to make it easier for banks to access emergency loans from the Fed. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-25/jpmorgan-eyes-plan-to…

* * *

end

Pam and Russ Martens: Wall Street banks, insurers sell off, dangerously linked by derivative trades

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Tuesday, February 26, 2020

If the federal government wants to quarantine the most dangerous threat to the financial health of the United States, it will impose a lockdown and decontamination of the federally-insured banks that are holding tens of trillions of dollars in derivative trades. Yesterday, the stock market rout outed the worst of these actors.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell a hefty 1,031.61 points, that was only a 3.56 percentage point loss. The S&P 500 was off by 3.35 percent. The decline in the broader averages looks tame compared to what happened to some of the biggest banks on Wall Street and their derivative counterparties.

… 

Morgan Stanley tanked by 5.23 percent; Citigroup was off by 5.12 percent; while Bank of America closed down 4.74 percent. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs magically trimmed their losses during the trading day, closing down 2.69 percent and 2.64 percent, respectively. (Both JPMorgan Chase and Goldman are the targets of criminal probes by the U.S. Department of Justice, making their mild declines yesterday, compared to their peers, a bit hard to swallow. Both banks own Dark Pools where they are allowed to trade their own stocks.)

Why did the Wall Street banks trade so much worse than companies that are experiencing supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus? Other market activity strongly suggests that there is a critical problem with the banks’ counterparties to their tens of trillions in derivative trades. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/02/wall-street-banks-insurers-sell-o…

end

Ontario teachers pension fund strikes innovative cash-for-gold deal

 Section: 

By Aoyon Ashraf and Paula Sambo
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, February 24, 2020

New Gold Inc. surged after forming an unusual partnership with Ontario Teachers Pension Plan that gives the miner $300 million in exchange for selling a portion of the free cash flow from its flagship operation.

Miners often sell rights to future production called streams, as well as royalties, to help finance development of big projects.

… 

But in the agreement announced today with the Canadian pension fund, New Gold will sell a 46% free cash flow interest from its New Afton mine over four years. After the term ends, Teachers has the option to convert it into a 46% joint venture interest in the British Columbia mine, while New gold retains an “overriding” right to buy back the stake under certain conditions.

Investors showed their approval by pushing shares of the Vancouver-based miner up as much as 16% in Toronto, the most since July, while gold was down. Before today, New Gold gained 2.6% in the past 12 months, underperforming both bullion futures and its peers.

The deal is positive because it allows New Gold to help reduce its debt, while it makes the company a potential takeover target, according to Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets analyst Dalton Baretto. …

For its part, Ontario Teachers’ move appears to be part of a larger strategy to diversify its portfolio. Lower-for-longer interest rates have pushed pension funds to cast their nets far and wide in search for returns amid a slew of geopolitical risks and trade tensions. Investors looking to diversify are seeking shelter in low-volatility assets that tend to be illiquid.

The fund is diversifying so it doesn’t “regret being overexposed to one asset class in particular,” Ziad Hindo, the chief investment officer of the C$201.4 billion (US$152 billion) fund, said in August. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-25/ontario-teachers-expa…

end

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: U.S. real rates are already negative and will get more so, boosting gold

 Section: 

9:06p ET Tuesday, February 24, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing at Sprott Money, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke asserts tonight that the whole U.S. Treasury yield curve already offers a negative return in inflation-adjusted interest rates, even as more rate cuts are almost surely coming. This, Hemke writes, will push more safe-haven money toward gold in all its forms.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Powell Painted into a Corner … Again” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/powell-painted-into-a-corneragain-craig…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Gold-backed ETFs have never seen inflows like this

 Section: 

By Ranjeetha Pakiam
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Global investors are stashing more and more assets into gold as the coronavirus outbreak spreads and appetite for risk takes a hit.

The global tally of bullion in exchange-traded funds swelled by the most in more than a month on Tuesday as equities sank. That was the 25th consecutive day of inflows, a record. At 2,624.7 tons, the holdings are the largest ever.

… 

After surging 18% last year, gold has extended its rally in 2020, with prices hitting the highest since 2013. The haven has been favored as the virus outbreak has spread beyond China, threatening a pandemic and slower growth. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-26/investors-pour-more-a…

end

You can distinguish conspiracy theories from conspiracy facts, if you really want to and try

 Section: 

2:57p ET Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

A grudgingly approving reference to GATA comes today from the investment research chief of currency trading house BDSwiss, Marshall Gittler, whose essay at FXStreet is headlined “Another ‘Risk-Off’ day, But with Another Fall in Gold”:

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/another-risk-off-day-but-with-another-…

Gittler writes:

“The most interesting point of the day, though, is the second day of decline in gold. You might think that a general panic like we’ve seen this week combined with record-low bond yields and expectations of further cuts in policy rates would send the yellow metal soaring further, but Monday was the high and it fell on Tuesday and Wednesday.”

(Actually, at this hour today, Wednesday, gold now seems to be up $10 or so, but then Switzerland is six hours ahead of New York.)

Gittler continues: “Those who like conspiracy stories can read on the infamous Zero Hedge website about how there was a sell order for over $3 billion in the gold futures market, which they attribute — with no proof — to the Bank for International Settlements”:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-suddenly-hammered-multi-billi…

“You can read more about the BIS and the gold market at the website of the similarly conspiratorial Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.”

http://gata.org/node/19871

“I have no idea whether this explanation is true — in fact I doubt it seriously — but I do think the market action is strange. All the signs are pointing to higher and higher gold prices, except maybe speculator positioning, which is already at a record high.

“But as that GATA piece points out, no one takes profits by dumping $3 billion on the market all at once. You would sell slowly and gradually, trying not to impact the market price. So the explanation of profit-taking on these record-high longs doesn’t cut it either.”

* * *

Call us anything you want, just not late for dinner, since, politically incorrect as GATA is, we’re glad of almost any attention. Indeed, GATA is honored to be mentioned in the same breath as Zero Hedge, whose audience is a million times larger than ours, just as we’re delighted that the head of investment research at a Swiss currency trading house apparently has taken some notice of our work.

But GATA always cordially invites those who call us “conspiratorial” to examine the documentation behind our work. We present it assiduously, even tediously. After all, the dispatch to which Gittler refers today cited six important documents that cast suspicion on the BIS for constantly intervening surreptitiously in the gold market, including records from the BIS itself.

Since the BIS is an organization of central banks, holds its meetings in secret, and implements largely in secret the courses of action decided at those meetings, the bank is the very embodiment of conspiracy — that is, as one dictionary defines it, “a combination of persons for a secret, unlawful, or evil purpose.”

Really, Mr. Gittler, while there are indeed too many conspiracy theories, there are also conspiracy facts. And since the office of BD Swiss is in Zug, Switzerland, just 70 miles from BIS headquarters in Basel, in pursuit of investment research you might take a day trip over there to ask the central bankers about their activities in the gold market and exactly for whom and what objectives they are undertaken.

GATA has tried that already —

http://www.gata.org/node/17793

— so here’s some cordial advice: When you ask the BIS what it’s doing in the gold market, why, and for whom, don’t stand too close to the door, lest a conspiracy fact smash your glasses and break your nose.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.015/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0231   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 3.40 POINTS OR 0.11%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 82.13 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 477.96 POINTS OR 2.13%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.81/Euro RISES TO 1.0933

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 48.06 and Brent: 52.75

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.52%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.01% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.24%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.53: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.19

3k Gold at $1648.60 silver at: 18.06   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 25/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.97

3m oil into the 48 dollar handle for WTI and 52 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.04 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9723 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0630 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.52%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.33% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.79%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1606..

Dow Tumbles Into 10% Correction As Futures Crash, 10Y Yields Plunge To Record Lows On Pandemic Panic

After three days of tentative attempts to BTFD in the overnight session, on Thursday for the first time the puke in futures and global markets was so widespread that “pajama traders” did not pass go and proceeded to sell without prejudice…

… as S&P 500 futures dropped as much as 1.6% and threatened to slide below 3,000 today, while Dow Jones futs were down more than 375 points lower, sending the broad index into correction territory, down 3000 points from its last week highs.

The MSCI All-Country World Index fell for a sixth straight day, with Japan’s Topix and the Stoxx Europe 600 leading declines among major indexes.

The same risk aversion that was sparked in recent days by a growing pandemic panic, drove global stocks lower on Thursday, increasing their drop in value this week alone to more than $3 trillion…

…  and U.S. Treasuries yields hit record lows just below 1.28% after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported the first U.S. coronavirus case of unknown origin.

… as the coronavirus spread faster outside China than in, with South Korea reporting a whopping 505 new cases, nearly double the 284 on February 25, pushing total cases to 1766 and a 13th coronavirus-related death reported. Overnight President Trump named Vice President Mike Pence to lead the government’s preparations to tackle the virus outbreak and sought to reassure the public that the authorities are ready to handle the situation; at the same time California reported the first US coronavirus case which had been the result of “community transmision”, and whose origin was unknown.

“The fact that, not only is there no sign yet of the pathogen being contained, but rather we now also face the specter of it spreading through the U.S., will continue to weigh on the global macro outlook for the coming months,” Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank, wrote in a note. “Buckle up for continued high volatility and escalating risk aversion.”

Meanwhile, next door Japan’s ruling party is reportedly considering an extra budget to tackle the virus outbreak, according to Nikkei, as Germany reported 9 new cases of coronavirus so far on February 26, whilst Denmark reported its first case.

As traders scrambled for some clarity amid the panic, global equities have now fallen for six straight days, and Wall Street’s volatility gauge was near its late-2018 highs.

European stocks were pummeled from the open, with the STOXX 600 index falling 3%, the lowest level since Oct 22, 2019, and the blue-chip index in Italy – the worst-hit country in Europe – sinking as dozens of European companies issued warnings about potential damage to their profits.  Travel stocks underperformed, down ~12% since the start of the week, with all sectors in the red. Anheuser-Busch InBev NV was among the worst performers in Europe after a dismal forecast. Several large companies on the benchmark, including HSBC Holdings Plc, are today trading without the right to dividends, potentially exacerbating declines.

In the United States, Microsoft became the second trillion-dollar company to warn about its results after Apple. Its Frankfurt-listed shares were down 3%.

Earlier in the session, Coronavirus fears sent Asian stocks toward their biggest six-day losing streak since August, with the IT and energy sectors falling the most. Markets in the region were mixed, with the Jakarta Composite Index and Japan’s Topix falling, while Thailand’s SET and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed. The U.S. urged travelers to reconsider trips to South Korea as cases there rose above 1,500. While Bank of Korea left its key interest rate unchanged, it lowered its annual growth forecast on mounting evidence of an economic hit from the coronavirus. The Topix declined 2.4%, with PIA and Sanix falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%, with Tianjin Songjiang and Shanghai Shenhua posting the biggest advances.

Goldman Sachs said the equity market sell-off would create opportunities to add risk eventually and that it did not expect a deep bear market or U.S. recession. “However, near term we feel that positioning and valuations are not yet depressed enough and uncertainty on the global growth impact from the coronavirus is likely to remain high,” Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.

“Safe-haven currencies are doing very well and gold is heading back higher, and unless we see a slowdown in the coronavirus cases outside China, risk sentiment will continue to be undermined,” said Peter Kinsella, global head of FX strategy at UBP in London

Yields on U.S. Treasuries, which fall when prices rise, dropped to a record low 1.28 for 10-year debt and the yield curve continued to send recession warnings. German 10-year debt fell to -0.5140%. Italian debt underperformed as the spread of the virus there raised fears of a recession. Australia’s 10-year yield dropped to a record low on accelerated demand for haven assets as the nation initiated an emergency pandemic plan.

Meanwhile, as the market begs for a Fed bailout, fed funds futures are now pricing a quarter-point rate cut by the end of April, while the benchmark three-month London interbank rate for dollars fell Thursday by the most since January. The May 2020 fed funds contract has an implied rate of 1.305%; that’s more than a quarter of a percentage point below the fed funds effective rate, currently 1.58%. The January 2021 fed funds future shows close to three quarters of a percentage point of easing by year end. The three- month U.S. dollar Libor rate fixed lower by 3.287bp on Thursday, ICE data show, the largest decline since Jan. 8.

In FX, the dollar fell against most major currencies as investors worried over the U.S.’s vulnerability to the spread of the coronavirus. The pound reversed gains to lead G-10 losses after the U.K. said it would prepare for a no-trade-deal exit if negotiations with the European Union did not proceed swiftly.

“The dollar is being broadly sold as risk-off sentiment heightens on the report of the infection in the U.S.,” said Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo. “The currency is also under pressure because Trump’s speech may have disappointed the market.” The yen enjoyed support from purchases by local banks, rising nearly 2% on the week; it pared gains after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reportedlycalled for all elementary, middle and high schools in the country to close from Monday through to the end of the spring holidays as part of measures to combat the virus spread.  The safe-haven Swiss franc also gained on Thursday. Sweden’s krona advanced against all major peers, supported by flows from the Norwegian krone, and after retail sales data and an economic tendency survey surprised to the upside.

Predictably safe haven gold rose 0.8% to $1,652 per ounce, just shy of the seven-year high it hit on Monday, and silver gained 1% to $18.03 an ounce. Meanwhile oil – sensitive to global growth – fell more than 2% to its cheapest in 14 months

To the day ahead now, there’s an array of data in the US, including the second reading of Q4’s GDP, the preliminary January readings for durable goods orders and non-defence capital goods orders ex-air, weekly initial jobless claims, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for February, and January’s pending home sales. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, as well as the ECB’s Panetta, Schnabel, Lane, de Guindos and Lane. In addition, the Fed’s Evans and the BoE’s Cunliffe will also be speaking. Autodesk, Best Buy, Dell Technologies, and VMware are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,092.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.5% to 398.54
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 159.60
  • MXAPJ up 0.01% to 524.89
  • Nikkei down 2.1% to 21,948.23
  • Topix down 2.4% to 1,568.06
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,778.62
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 2,991.33
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 39,760.00
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,657.90
  • Kospi down 1.1% to 2,054.89
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to -0.514%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $1.0934
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.827%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.263%
  • Brent futures down 1.9% to $52.44/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,645.04
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 98.78

Top Overnight News

  • More coronavirus cases were reported in countries other than China for the first time, the World Health Organization said, a significant development as new cases spread around the globe
  • Vast swathes of the Lombardy and Veneto regions of Italy, stretching from Milan to Venice, remained in a virtual lockdown. Spain kept about 700 guests confined to a Canary Islands hotel as they undergo tests, while France announced four new confirmed cases, including a 60-year-old Frenchman who died in a Paris hospital overnight. Greece reported its first case
  • The ongoing coronavirus epidemic is causing a significant challenge to U.S. businesses in China due to travel disruptions and reduced staff productivity, according to the results of a survey by the the American Chamber of Commerce
  • The rapid spread of the coronavirus has prompted the Bank of Japan to ask major banks about their readiness for a worsening of the outbreak, people with knowledge of the matter said
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the European Union he’ll walk away from the negotiating table in June if it’s not clear he’s going to get a Canada-style free trade agreement for Britain. The U.K. is setting a tough timetable for the negotiations, saying it wants the broad outline of an agreement by June, so the deal can be finalized by September
  • Saudi Aramco is starting early preparations for an international listing, just months after the oil giant turned its record initial public offering into a domestic affair and sidelined global banks, people with knowledge of the matter said
  • There’s a good chance that U.K. companies will unleash spending this year with a double boost from an expansionary budget and more clarity over Brexit, according to Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane
  • Norway’s sovereign wealth fund boosted its South Korean government debt holdings in 2019 to $5.6 billion from $5.1 billion in the previous year, according to data published on its website
  • Spain’s vicious start-and-stop cycle of bad jobs has become one of Europe’s most chronic economic dilemmas, a problem unresolved by its post-crisis boom

Asian equity markets traded mostly lower following a mixed Wall Street handover, as major indices faded gains heading into the latter part of the US session before the Dow and S&P dipped into negative territory – with the former’s losses tallying over 2000 points this week thus far. Furthermore, US equity futures trickled lower since reopen amid the rising virus cases outside China and with the first “community spread” reported in the States. ASX 200 (-0.8%) is mostly weighed on by its banking and base-metal miners, while some earnings-related movers were scattered across the index. Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) underperformed with downside led by manufacturing, automakers, and financials, whilst Panasonic shares slid over 4% after ending its solar partnership with Tesla. KOSPI (-0.7%) hit levels last seen in October last year as the index continued to be weighed on by the surging number of coronavirus cases in the country, alongside the surprise hold on rates by the BoK. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.3%) joined the regional stock rout as the energy and entertainment names added further to the losses seen this week, whilst Shanghai Comp (+0.1%) showed resilience and bucked the trend despite yet another PBoC inaction, as the rate of virus deaths in the country eased, the rate new cases steadied, and with further pledges from China to cushion the virus impact and stem the contagion.

Top Asian News

  • China May Cut Deposit Rates So Battered Banks Can Keep Lending
  • Hong Kong Property Tycoon Peter Woo to Take Wheelock Private
  • South Korea Reports 505 More Coronavirus Cases, 1 Death Feb. 27

Once again, it’s been a tough start to the session for European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -2.3%, FTSE 100 -1.9% and now in correction territory) as market sentiment is dictated by incremental newsflow surrounding COVID-19. Focus continues to reside on developments external to China with the further selling pressure being brought about by multiple updates including the potential first “community spread” case in the US, the mounting case count in South Korea and government’s across the globe lifting their threat levels over the virus. Despite comments from the WHO that the coronavirus case count might have been inflated in Italy by testing errors, markets have not been able to stage anything close to a meaningful recovery. From a sector standpoint, as has been the case throughout the week, selling has been relatively broad-based with only utility names holding up marginally better than their peers following earnings from Engie (+4%). Travel names continue to remain the ugly duckling in Europe with recent- cost-cutting measures across the sector unable to stop the rot; Tui -6.3%, easyJet -7.5%, Lufthansa -7.5%, RyanAir -7%, IAG -8%. Elsewhere, it’s been a busy morning of corporate updates with WPP (-14%) at the foot of the Stoxx 600  after a disappointing Q4 sales outturn, Belgian Heavyweight AB Inbev (-9.5%) are lower after warning on Q1 profits in the wake of COVID-19, whilst UK homebuilder Persimmon (-4.5%) lag peers after posting an annual decline in profits. To the upside, Carrefour (+3.5%) are firmer after announcing increased cost savings targets alongside earnings, Reckitt Benckiser (+2.5%) have reversed losses seen at the opening after taking a GBP 5bln impairment on Mead Johnson Nutrition and British American Tobacco (+1.5%) are showing mild gains after showing pretax profit and sales growth in its latest earnings update. Stateside, focus will be on Microsoft (-2.5% pre-market) after the Co. cut its Q3 personal computing segment revenue guidance due to coronavirus.

Top European News

  • Danske Bank Cuts Hundreds of Jobs in Effort to Rein In Costs
  • Reckitt Benckiser Takes $6.5 Billion Charge Over Formula Deal
  • Boris Johnson to Put U.K. on Collision Course With EU Over Trade
  • Norway’s Wealth Fund Returns Record $180 Billion in 2019

In FX, the Greenback has unwound all and more of its gains vs most G10 peers amidst ramped up Fed rate cut expectations on the ever-increasing spread of China’s COVID-19 epidemic to the point of pandemic proportions. The Buck’s retreat coincides with a marked rise in the number of suspected US cases and one confirmed in North Carolina from unknown origin that the CDC contends may constitute a community spread. In response, the DXY has reversed further below the 99.000 level to a 98.658 low and not far from Fib support at 98.550 that virtually coincides with another strong technical mark in the form of a late November 2019 high. Ahead, multiple US data releases and more Fed rhetoric, but for the time being it’s all about coronavirus and contagion.

  • EUR/NZD/CHF/AUD – The major beneficiaries of the aforementioned US Dollar demise, with the Euro embarking on a firmer recovery rally through 1.0900, 1.0926 resistance and a 1.0937 Fib before pulling up just ahead of 1.0950, a decent 1.0955 option expiry (1 bn) and another Fib at 1.0958. Meanwhile, the Kiwi and Aussie have both pared losses from sub-0.6300/0.6550 lows even though the RBNZ and NZ Finance Minister have warned of near term downside economic effects from the nCoV, with the former estimating a 0.3% point q/q hit to Q1 GDP, and Australia’s PM expressed concerns about a global pandemic that warrants action. In similar vein, the Franc has shrugged off latest dovish SNB commentary to a certain extent, as Usd/Chf slips closer to 0.9700 in contrast to Eur/Chf remaining above 1.0600 on the relative common currency strength noted above.
  • JPY – Volatile trade for the Yen around 110.00 vs the Greenback and within a 120.56-119.96 range against the Euro, as underlying safe-haven demand alongside dovish BoJ remarks propelled the Japanese unit to best levels before key chart support and psychological levels held. However, a raft of looming Japanese economic indicators should provide some fundamental direction, including CPI, jobs, IP and retail sales.
  • CAD/NOK/GBP/SEK – The Loonie is meandering either side of 1.3325 ahead of Canadian current account data and capped by another marked decline in crude, but showing a bit more resilience than the Norwegian Crown that has fallen below 10.2750 vs the Euro in wake of much weaker than forecast retail sales. Conversely, the Swedish Krona has been cushioned by encouraging sentiment indicators and wider trade surplus, with Eur/Sek retreating towards the bottom of 10.6125-5570 extremes. However, Sterling is back under pressure on a combination of bearish factors, as Cable reverses from around 1.2950 to 1.2870 or so and Eur/Gbp tests 0.8500 on heightened no deal Brexit prospects, more month end cross flows and elevated BoE easing expectations rather than actual MPC guidance via Cunliffe.
  • EM – Losses across the board on broad risk aversion, but with the Try also subject to further Syrian related angst as Russia refutes any meeting in early March and the Lira breaches a key mark (circa 6.1600 vs the Usd) that had been providing a buffer.

In commodities, WTI and Brent prices are, once again, subdued on virus demand concerns as cases continue to rise and spread globally; currently, front-month futures are lower by around USD 1.0/bbl and remain just below the USD 48/bbl and USD 52/bbl marks. WTI is currently on track to post a weekly loss in excess of 10%, a loss which would be the largest weekly decline since December 2018 on a percentage term. Crude specific newsflow, away from the virus has been light, with the only pertinent comments stemming from Russian Energy Minister Novak that he wishes to increase co-operation with both Saudi Arabia and OPEC+; further pushing back on the talk of a rift within the cartel. In terms of notably commentary Gazprom have remarked that, because of the lack of clarity over demand, OPEC+ should wait a while longer before making a decision around adding to or extending production; which comes ahead of next week’s OPEC+ gathering. Turning to metals where spot gold is little changed on the day and has seen a much less volatile session than has occurred over the last few weeks; interestingly, the precious metal is currently little moved from the unchanged mark on a weekly basis in-spite of a range just shy of USD 65/oz at present. Elsewhere, copper prices are modestly softer and continued to be afflicted alongside other base metals on demand-side fears.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.1%, prior 2.1%
  • 8:30am: GDP Price Index, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%
  • 8:30am: Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.0%, prior -0.3%
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.45%, prior 2.4%
  • 8:30am: Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior -0.8%
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, est. 1.7%, prior 1.8%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212,000, prior 210,000
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 1.72m, prior 1.73m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 65.6
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 3.0%, prior -4.9%; Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. 2.05%, prior 6.8%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -1, prior -1

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

News-flow surrounding the COVID-19 Coronavirus continues to take on a fairly predictable path given all that our expert epidemiologist said earlier this week on the conference call (link here for replay details). It‘a been a 24 hour period where markets initially wanted to buy the dip but after a series of constant mini blows the S&P 500 fell -0.38% last night and futures are down a further -1.34% this morning.

The latest on the virus overnight is that a case has been confirmed in Northern California of unknown origin as the person hadn’t travelled to any foreign country recently or had contact with any of the confirmed cases. This could be a sign that the virus is spreading in a local area. The new case brings the total of known infections in the US to 15, not counting repatriated Americans. Meanwhile, South Korea reported another 334 cases (307 in Daegu) overnight bringing the total to 1,595 with fatalities at 13. Also, as the number of patients rise in Daegu, the city authorities are saying that they don’t have enough hospital beds to treat patients. The US State Department issued a level 3 advisory, the highest being level 4, for South Korea overnight asking Americans to “reconsider” travel to South Korea. In what could be termed as a surprising move, the BoK shied away from cutting rates at its meeting today against expectations of a 25bps cut. President Trump also addressed the US last night and tried to reassure the public that they face limited risk from the spread of the virus but it didn’t feel as bullish as some of his previous pronouncements on the virus.

Risk off is continuing to dominate Asian markets this morning with the exception of China where the bourses are up (CSI +0.81% and Shanghai Comp +0.53%). The Nikkei (-2.09%), Hang Seng (-0.82%) and Kospi (-0.85%) are all down alongside most other indices in the region. As for Fx, the Japanese yen is up +0.30% overnight. Elsewhere yields on 10y USTs are down another -3.4bps to 1.305%. The Australian 10y is also down by -6.4bps to a record low of +0.850%. In commodities, crude oil is extending declines after hitting 13 month lows with brent crude prices down -1.33% this morning while gold prices are up +0.53%.

In other overnight news, the IMF and World Bank said overnight that they may reconsider the meetings scheduled for mid-April in Washington amid the coronavirus’ spread. The meetings typically draw about 2,800 delegates from 189 member countries, plus hundreds of other observers and journalists.

The WHO are now reporting over 80,000 cases worldwide and an increasing number of countries confirming the presence of the virus. Indeed new cases are now higher outside of China than inside. Yesterday we saw the virus spread into new parts of Europe and the last untouched continent (if you exclude Antarctica). South America saw its first confirmed case in Brazil, where an older man who had just returned from a trip to Northern Italy tested positive. Greece and North Macedonia similarly saw their first cases yesterday following a pair of women returning to their respective homes from a recent trip to Italy. Staying with Italy many of the Serie A matches this weekend will be played behind closed doors with no fans and the Ireland vs. Italy Six Nations rugby game for next weekend was be called off. Italy now has 453 cases with 12 deaths. The ECDC said in its risk assessment report yesterday that “It is likely that Europe will see similar developments like in Italy, varying from country to country”. Germany’s Health Minister Jens Spahn said yesterday that Germany is at the beginning of a coronavirus epidemic after new cases sprung up in the country which can no longer be traced to the virus’s original source in China. Germany has 27 confirmed cases now vs. 16 the day before.

Against the backdrop of all this, the US has updated its travel advisory for Italy to “Exercise Increased Caution”. Later in the day Delta cut the number of flights to South Korea and Nestle SA, the world’s largest food company, has told employees to avoid traveling for business reasons until mid-March to keep from contracting or spreading the coronavirus. These actions are only likely to increase over the next few days. Meanwhile, Microsoft reduced its quarterly outlook yesterday due to the virus impact.

Elsewhere, Iran has imposed travel restrictions and suspended Friday prayers in areas hit by the virus after the country announced 19 Iranians have died due to the disease compared to 139 case, which is now the most deaths recorded outside of China though there are worries about the transparency and thereby accuracy of the reporting there. Overnight, Saudi Arabia has decided to temporarily halt religious visits that include stops in Mecca and Medina, which draw millions of people a year to Islam’s holiest cities, to prevent spread of virus in the country. The move comes amidst spread of virus in neighbouring countries including Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq and the UAE. Saudi Arabia has not reported any cases so far. Meanwhile, Pakistan also reported its first two cases yesterday.

There initially looked like there would be some respite for risk markets yesterday, with the S&P 500 trading higher through the NY morning (+1.73% at the peak). Then markets headed lower later in the session as the reports of new cases built and after an unsubstantiated report that there may be an outbreak of the virus just outside of New York City. The MSCI All-Country World Index sank -0.6%, reaching 16 week lows on its fifth straight decline, and the S&P 500 index joined it ending down -0.38% lower, also the fifth day lower in a row, which is the longest such streak since August. The large intraday swings continue to support a high VIX index level, which was relatively steady above 27 points. The US 10yr Treasury continues to its slide into fresh record lows down -1.8bps, finishing at 1.333%. Oil joined equities in a move higher while Europe was open and then reverting lower in the US afternoon session as risk assets were hit across the board, Brent finished down -2.80%.

The 3M/10Y yield curve threatened to invert further throughout the day, before finishing unchanged near 5 month lows. Yesterday we highlighted that the WIRP Bloomberg page showed the chance that the Fed would cut rates again ahead of their April meeting was 66.5%, up from 24.5% a week earlier, but now the market is pricing in an 84.5% chance. In a report (link here) out yesterday, our US economists estimated that a cumulative equity decline of around 16% would exert a drag on US growth equivalent to nearly a 25bp rate hike. As such, they note that a continuation of the deterioration in risk sentiment could materially raise the risk of Fed rate cuts in the coming months. That is 16% from highs, which means we are nearly half way there already, with the S&P -7.96% off highs!

Before that European equities stabilised yesterday, with the Stoxx 600 paring back losses earlier in the session to close unchanged, just before headlines really started to turn around. European stocks did end their run of four successive moves lower for the index though. Italian assets outperformed, in spite of the country being at the centre of the coronavirus cases in Europe, with the FTSE MIB advancing 1.40%. 10 year yields were higher in Germany (+0.7 bps), France (+1.3bps), and Italy (+0.6bps). iTraxx Crossover index of credit-default swaps climbed by +4.45bps to 258bps, its highest level since 8th October. The Dollar strengthened through the day with the DXY dollar index now up for 14 of the last 18 sessions. With investors in search of havens in the second half of the day, gold resumed its march higher after the ‘big‘ -1.46% drop yesterday and is now up over +4.5% over the last 2 weeks

Elsewhere in the US, former Vice President Biden received a crucial endorsement from Jim Clyburn, South Carolina state representative and highest ranking African American in congress. Biden who was already leading with Black voters across the country, had not performed well in the first two primaries and finished a fairly distant second in Nevada. He needs to do well in South Carolina on Saturday in order to build momentum into Super Tuesday and have a path to the nomination. Clyburn said on Sunday political talkshows that he was worried about having a candidate with the title ‘socialist’ on the ticket and many party leaders have commented on what it could do to House and Senate races. Clyburn might be the first signal that party leaders are going to more forcefully back a moderate alternative.

In terms of data, US new home sales gave a rush of good news, even if slightly backward looking at this point. New home sales surged to its highest level since 2007 in January, reaching an annualized rate of 764k, significantly above consensus expectations of 718k. It was the best month-on-month change since last summer. This reflects on the record low levels of long term rates in the US coupled with strong consumer sentiment.

To the day ahead now, and economic data releases out include the Euro Area’s M3 money supply for January, along with consumer and economic confidence readings for February. Meanwhile there’s an array of data in the US, including the second reading of Q4’s GDP, the preliminary January readings for durable goods orders and non-defence capital goods orders ex-air, weekly initial jobless claims, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for February, and January’s pending home sales. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, as well as the ECB’s Panetta, Schnabel, Lane, de Guindos and Lane. In addition, the Fed’s Evans and the BoE’s Cunliffe will also be speaking.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.40 POINTS OR 0.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 82.13 POINTS OR 0.31%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 477.96 POINTS OR 2.13%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0150 /Oil UP TO 48.06 dollars per barrel for WTI and 52.75 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0150 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0231 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea,Japan/China/Israel//Coronavirus update

Japan, China Close Schools Nationwide; South Korea Confirms 505 New Cases, Surpassing China For First TIme: Live Virus Updates
Israel

Update (0715ET): with the country’s third election in a year just days away, Israel is taking serious pains to avoid acknowledging the coronavirus cases that have been confirmed in the country by blaming them on Italy and South Korea (each case involved a traveler who had recently returned from one of those two countries).

The country said Thursday it would bar non-Israelis who had recently visited Italy after confirming that a man who had recently visited the country had tested positive for the virus, according to Reuters.

* * *

US equity futures are pointing to yet another lower open on Thursday morning after WaPo interrupted President Trump’s press conference last night to reports the first COVID-19 case “of unknown origin,” which the CDC later confirmed was in Sonoma County, and could be the epicenter of America’s first “community outbreak.” Shortly after, South Korea reported its largest number of new coronavirus cases in a single day, as the number of new cases reported outside China once again surpassed the number inside China. Brazil confirmed the first case in South America yesterday, bringing the virus to every continent except Antarctica.

A few hours later, and South Korea has reported another 171 cases, bringing the total cases confirmed on Thursday to 505 – surpassing China’s daily total (433) for the first time, as Bloomberg pointed out. So far, South Korea has confirmed 1,766 cases, along with 13 deaths, in the 38 days since the first case was reported on Jan. 20. The US and South Korea have cancelled planned military exercises after a US soldier caught the virus in Korea.

Over in Hawaii, Hawaiian Air has suspended service to South Korea starting March 2 through April 30, while Delta reduces flights as the outbreak in South Korea intensifies (Hawaii has already had one COVID-19 scare involving a Japanese tourist; we suspect the state wants to avoid a similar episode involving South Korea).

Fearing the sudden breakout in the Middle East might spread inside its borders, Saudi Arabia has halted pilgrimages to Islam’s holy sites – known as the Hajj – that are a mandatory practice for Muslims. Across the Persian Gulf, Iran has now confirmed 26 deaths 245 cases. But given the virus’s rapid spread throughout the Islamic Republic, many suspect that the real number of cases is far higher (earlier in the week, a local lawmaker said 50 people had died in the city of Qom alone).

Iran Health Ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said the large number of new cases is due to more labs handling virus tests. He warned that the public should expect more cases in the future.

Yesterday, Greece was one of eight countries – Brazil, Pakistan, North Macedonia, of course Greece, Georgia, Algeria, Norway and Romania – to confirm their first cases. On Thursday, Greece confirmed two more cases, one of them in its capital city of Athens. The initial case was found in Thessaloniki, Greece’s second city.

Following Brazil’s confirmation overnight, its Latin American neighbors are taking steps to stop the virus from spreading across their borders. According to the AP, Peru is keeping a team of specialists working 24/7 at Jorge Chávez International Airport. Argentina has asked citizens to report any flu-like symptom. Puerto Rico has established a task force to prepare for an outbreak in Puerto Rico. And Chile has announced a health emergency and purchased millions of masks and protective outfits for health workers.

But perhaps the biggest story overnight came out of Japan, where the government swore yesterday that the Tokyo Games would take place as scheduled this summer, after an IOC member speculated that if the virus wasn’t cleared up by late May, Japan might be forced to cancel the Olympics.

PM Shinzo Abe asked all schools in Japan to remain closed until the spring holidays begin late next month to try and contain the virus. Abe’s decision follows a rash of new cases reported in the north of Japan, including the first cases in Hokkaido, with no discernible path of origin, Nikkei reports.

As of Thursday, 175 cases have been confirmed across 19 of Japan’s prefectures, including Hokkaido, Tokyo, Aichi, and Chiba. Earlier on Thursday, Hokkaido instituted a weeklong closure of all 1,600 public elementary and junior high schools. Abe made the announcement during a meeting of the government’s headquarters.

Schools must now decide whether to abide by the PM’s non-binding ask, though it’s expected that nearly all schools will comply.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, President Xi’s ‘point-man’ in charge of the coronavirus response, said that China will extend its school closures for another month because of the virus, according to CCTV.

Earlier this week, we noted that WHO’s team of researchers claimed they found no evidence that the virus had ‘mutated’ during their study of 100+ strains isolated from patients. Well, another group of scientists have done some research that appears to conflict with this.

In Australia, which confirmed a handful of cases during the early days of the outbreak, but has since gone quiet, PM Scott Morrison said Thursday in what some might describe as a ‘fearmongering’ speech that “there is every indication that the world will soon enter a pandemic phase of the coronavirus.”

“As a result, we have initiated the implementation of the coronavirus emergency response plan. While the WHO is yet to declare the nature of the coronavirus and its move toward a pandemic phase, we believe that the risk of a global pandemic is very much upon us and as a result, as a government, we need to take steps to prepare.”

WHO’s Dr. Tedros, who yesterday asked officials not to use the word ‘pandemic’, must have been thrilled to hear Morrison’s screed.

Morrison said Australians can still go “to the football match, or the concert” because Australia has “stayed ahead” of the virus. But now it’s time to move onto the next phase, which includes “preparation for the possibility of a much more significant event.”

Reuters

@Reuters

‘There is every indication that the world will soon enter a pandemic phase of the coronavirus,’ Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said. Governments around the world are ramping up measures to battle a looming pandemic https://reut.rs/2Ps65pF

Embedded video

Over in France, French President Emmanuel Macron said “we have a crisis before us. An epidemic is on its way” during a visit to a Paris hospital where coronavirus patients are being treated. His statement followed reports that 2 have died in France, an elderly Christian tourist and a 60-year-old French national. The Frenchman died earlier this week in Paris at the hospital Macron visited Thursday. The total number of cases in France reached 18 on Wednesday, roughly the same number as neighboring Germany.

Spain detected two more cases on Thursday, bringing the total this week to 14. Neither was connected to Italy, health authorities said. Switzerland confirmed 3 more cases, bringing its total to 4, though Swiss authorities said they’re testing 66 others. In Italy, the number of confirmed cases climbed to 528. Of those, 278 are self-isolating at home, 159 recovered with symptoms in hospital and 37 are in intensive care.

As the AP reminds us, Germany’s health minister said Wednesday that the country was “at the beginning of an epidemic” as authorities in the west tested dozens of people. New cases on Thursday brought Germany’s total to 21.

Two new cases confirmed in the UK on Thursday raised the total to 15. A primary school in Buxton was forced to close for “a deep clean” after a parent of one of the students tested positive for the virus.

The EU Commission doubled-down on its anti-border-closure position, saying no EU country wants to close internal borders. Meanwhile, the FT reports that EU officials are weighing the risks of clusters of Italian-style outbreaks surface across the continent.

end
SOUTH KOREA/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

New Virus Cases In South Korea Surpasses China For First Time

The outbreak of COVID-19 in South Korea has just hit another unfortunate milestone: For the first time on Thursday, new cases in the tiny East Asian country of just 25 million surpassed new cases in China.

While few trust the Chinese numbers, the message is still clear: the global outbreak’s center of gravity is moving from Wuhan over to Daegu, and that the global spread of the virus is accelerating, putting governments and epidemiologists on edge.

On Thursday, South Korea confirmed 505 new cases, compared with 433 in China, according to China’s NHC.

Across South Korea, total cases have hit 1,766 in the 38 days since the first case was confirmed on Jan. 20. Of these, 1,132 are from Daegu, 345 from neighboring North Gyeongsang Province, and another 56 are from Seoul. A total of 13 have died.

More broadly, this week marked the first time where new cases outside China surpassed those in China. The rapid surge in cases in Daegu and elsewhere made South Korea home to the biggest cluster of cases outside the mainland as it surpassed the “Diamond Princess’s” infection total earlier this week.

So far, most of the cases have been connected to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus and its branch in Daegu, a city in the southeastern area of South Korea.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in promised to avoid the draconian crackdowns utilized by China, even as the WHO praised Beijing’s heavy handed tactics. But as the virus spreads and hysteria takes hold, with the US and South Korea cancelling military exercises for the time being, who knows what lengths the government will go to prevent the outbreak from spiraling out of control.

end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Prepare that Japan cancels the Olympics

(zerohedge)

Japan Cancels Sport And Cultural Events Amid Concerns Olympics Could Be Canceled 

With the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics scheduled to begin on July 24, Japan has already started canceling sport and cultural events amid the broadening of the Covid-19 outbreak.

Tokyo’s Yomiuri Giants baseball team is expected to play two preseason games in an empty stadium to minimize the transmission of the virus.

The move comes as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ordered all sport and cultural events to be halted for the next two weeks, reported Reuters.

“Taking into account that the next one to two weeks are extremely important in stopping the spread of infection, the government considers there to be a large risk of transmission at sports, cultural events, and large gatherings of people,” Abe told parliament on Wednesday.

Japan has at least 170 cases of infections, apart from the 691 reported from a cruise ship that has been quarantined at Yokohama cruise port.

International Olympic Committee (IOC) member Dick Pound told AP News on Wednesday that the Games would most likely be canceled than postponed if the outbreak continued to worsen in the months ahead.

Pound said there’s a three-month window to decide the fate of the Games: “You could certainly go to two months out if you had to,” he said, which would mean the decision would come around late May. “A lot of things have to start happening. You’ve got to start ramping up your security, your food, the Olympic Village, the hotels, the media folks will be in there building their studios.”

He noted that if the virus outbreak continued to deteriorate, then “you’re probably looking at a cancellation.”

“This is the new war, and you have to face it. In and around that time, I’d say folks are going to have to ask: ‘Is this under sufficient control that we can be confident about going to Tokyo, or not?'” he said.

He added: “You just don’t postpone something on the size and scale of the Olympics. There are so many moving parts, so many countries and different seasons, and competitive seasons, and television seasons. You can’t just say, we’ll do it in October.”

Pound said, moving the Games to another city is highly unlikely.

“To move the place is difficult because there are few places in the world that could think of gearing up facilities in that short time to put something on,” he said.

Shaun Bailey, a UK Conservative candidate for the city’s mayoral race, said last week that, if need be, the Games could be held in London: “We have the infrastructure and the experience. And due to the #coronavirus outbreak, the world might need us to step up.”

But Pound’s comments suggest that if the virus outbreak doesn’t diminish by May – then the Games are likely canceled – not moved to a different region or postponed.

Japanese Minister Seiko Hashimoto told parliament on Wednesday that “the IOC is preparing for the Tokyo Games as scheduled,” when asked about Pound’s comment. “We will continue our preparations so that the IOC can make sound decisions.”

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga also acknowledged the IOC’s decision of the Games would be made in late May.

We noted on Monday that IOC officials made it clear the Games wouldn’t be canceled, but since the outbreak of the virus continues to spread across South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, and other parts of Europe, along with the US preparing for an epidemic, the situation continues to deteriorate, suggesting the likelihood of the games could be canceled if the WHO labels the virus a pandemic.

Since 1896, the Olympics have only been canceled during wartime. And in 1976, 1980 and 1984 faced boycotts.

The longer the outbreak continues, the more uncertainty it would create for Olympic organizers. All eyes on May.

end

3 C CHINA

The Pandemic across the globes has caused many to avoid Chinatowns across the globe

(zerohedge)

 

“It’s Crazy” – Pandemic Potential Crushes ‘Chinatowns’ Worldwide

Discrimination against China and Chinese people have erupted since the Covid-19 outbreak in January. Anxieties are high as many are avoiding Chinatowns across the world for fear, they might contract the deadly virus.

From Australia to New York City to Toronto to England to San Francisco, Chinatowns in many regions of the world have transformed into ghost towns. We noted this phenomenon last week.

Lily Zhou, 39, who owns a Shanghai-style restaurant in Australia’s Chinatown, told Bloomberg her food sales had crashed 70% since late January, which is around the time the virus started making headlines. She said her operation can withstand another few months of low traffic, and then after that, she would have to close down.

At 99 Favor Taste in Manhattan, store manager Echo Wu said traffic volume has plunged by a third since the virus started making headlines. Wu said depressed sales could begin impacting the long-term outlook for the restaurant. He believes people are irrational, and the media has drummed up Sinophobia.

“They may have a bias toward Chinese restaurants now,” He said. “I hope people can be more reasonable. After all, there are no cases in town yet.”

Lucy Yang

@LucyYang7

Dinner time in Chinatown and the restaurants are near empty! What’s going on?

There are no confirmed cases of in NYC, but just the fear of it is sending customers into a panic. Merchants in lower Manhattan, Brooklyn and Flushing are suffering.@abc7ny

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

The Rol San Restaurant in Toronto’s Chinatown has seen sales slump by at least 30% in the last month. Bloomberg asked the manager if the virus is driving Sinophobia, he replied: “Of course.”

Other restaurants in Toronto’s Chinatown have experienced a slowdown in patrons. Streets are bare, and a nearby supermarket to Rol San has seen traffic halved since the end of last month.

Chinatown in Manchester, England, has seen a 40% decline in its customer base, many of which are Chinese students. “There are fewer visitors, fewer customers. They’re really, really suffering — at the moment we haven’t come up with any solution yet,” Raymond Chan of the local business association said.

As for the oldest and most established Chinatowns in the US, which is in San Francisco, the streets are deserted as people avoid the area for fear of contracting the virus. Henry Chen, 56, owner of the AA Bakery & Cafe on Stockton Street, said his business fell 30% since the virus outbreak in China and confirmed US cases started to tick higher earlier this month. “There are fewer people on the street,” he said. “Lunch, dinner, breakfast, there is no business.”

The plunge in traffic to Western Chinatowns is nothing compared to paralysis that has developed in China’s economy. More than 700 million people are in lockdown in dozens of towns, manufacturing hubs are shuttered, and retail stores remain closed.

However, in Sydney’s Lower North Shore, and Eastwood in the north-west, which has a sizeable Chinese population, stores are thriving and selling out of face masks.

“It is crazy!” the Phoenix health and beauty store assistant manager Ruby Han told Bloomberg, referring to the demand for virus masks, hand sanitizers, and alcohol swabs.

“It’s like every 10 minutes people will come to check — ‘Do you have some masks? Do you have some masks?'” she said. “To be honest, we can’t handle it because the demand is just too high.”

We noted last month that worldwide searches for ‘virus mask’ erupted. Then detailed how a global run on masks was starting.

AuMake International Ltd. said online sales for masks have exploded: “This is a once in a decade, or two decades, event,” said Executive Chairman Keong Chan. “We know with Chinese New Year, we anticipate a fairly decent amount of sales, and it is way more than that. I can only conclude that the virus is a huge part of that.”

The same is being said at a pharmacy inside the Dragon City Mall in Toronto: “We probably used to sell about 100 masks a week, now we sell north of 700” despite lower foot traffic, said pharmacist Timothy Tran, 57.

With the virus not yet under control, restaurant owners in many Chinatowns across the world could soon shutter their doors as Sinophobia fears have resulted in plunging sales.

end

China’s “Whatever It Takes” Moment (May Not Be Enough)

The COVID-19 outbreak is dealing a severe blow to China’s economy. Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with tiny profit margins are especially bearing the brunt, but the impact is widespread, with the latest data point merely adding to concerns that, despite all the talk that Chinese are returning to work, the Chinese economy remains dead in the water.

As we detailed previously, here is China’s daily coal consumption which have barely pushed off the lows, and are roughly 50% where they were a year ago this time.

With coal demand in the doldrums, it is also to be expected that coal supply is depressed as well, and indeed coal volumes over the past week remain 25% lower than the past 3 years’ average, and roughly 33% below the 2019 level.

One of the better indicators of real-time commerce, traffic congestion, remains virtually unchanged, and substantially below where it was in previous years.

Yet, hilariously, this being China even with no transport, no commerce, and virtually no power plant use, pollution is finally starting to ramp up. One wonders what is causing this if it’s not coal demand, or transportation: maybe all those crematoriums working overtime?

And speaking of not transport, the number of passengers carried after the New Year is barely above 10 million, almost 50 million below last year’s levels.

Meanwhile, a brief silver lining in the economy was promptly snuffed out last week, when the property sales volume in 30 major cities crashed back to earth and remains well below 25% of the seasonal norm.

And with no end market demand, it is hardly a surprise that steel demand has continued to crater, and was below half the normal level from the past 3 years, with the most recent data showing full-country apparent steel demand -33% y/y vs -43% y/y last week:

  • Construction steel -78% y/y (in line with physical steel trading volume)
  • Flats -16% y/y

Last but not least, and perhaps most ominous of all, the earlier semi-official data print in the form of the February survey on business conditions showed a depression level plunge, with the index crashing more than 18 points, the most on record, to 37.3, which confirms Nomura’s expectation of a manufacturing PMI print later this week which may have a 30-handle.

And so it is little wonder that China just went all-in on monetary and fiscal support for the nations’ companies, following Mario Draghi’s lesson –

“whatever it takes.”

As Nomura’s Ting Lu details, to cope with this substantial shock, China’s State Council on 25 February unveiled a raft of targeted policy measures to support SMEs, especially those in Hubei province, the epicenter of COVID-19 (but, while more measures are coming, Nomura does not see “massive stimulus” as imminentsomething we warned about two weeks ago)

This is in line with our view that Beijing is keenly focused on helping SMEs survive the epidemic and pushing for business resumption.

Following the containment of COVID-19, we expect Beijing to taper off these easing measures in part to tame inflation and other issues amid an expected V-shaped recovery.

We do not expect Beijing to launch a round of significant stimulus packages to boost investment and consumption demand following the epidemic.

Beijing’s package to rescue SMEs amid the virus outbreak

Policy measures in the package include targeted liquidity and credit support, targeted tax cuts, targeted cost cuts and rental cuts. Details follow below:

  • On targeted liquidity support, the PBoC will increase the quota for banks regarding relending and re-discounting by RMB500bn to extend credit to SMEs, following the PBoC’s RMB300bn special-purpose relending (with a proportion of interest covered by fiscal subsidies) in early February. It will also lower the interest rate of re-lending designated for agricultural entities and SMEs by 25bp to 2.5% pa. According to the PBoC, as of end-2019, the outstanding amount of re-lending designated for agricultural entities and SMEs was RMB260bn and RMB283bn, respectively.
  • On targeted credit supply, Beijing encouraged financial institutions to provide a grace period for the virus-hit SMEs, upon application, in repaying the principal and interest of their outstanding loans, with the repayment date postponed to as late as 30 June and penalty interest waived; the policy applies to all companies in Hubei province. Beijing further required state-owned large commercial banks to achieve a 30% y-o-y growth in their outstanding loans to SMEs in H1, and lower the loan rates for SMEs from the level in the previous year. Policy banks will receive a special quota of RMB350bn for extending cheap credit to SMEs and the private sector.
  • On targeted tax cuts, the value-added tax (VAT) will be exempted for small-scale taxpayers in Hubei province between 1 March and end-May, while the VAT rate for small-scale taxpayers outside Hubei province will be lowered from 3% to 1% over the same period.
  • In addition, Beijing pledged a forceful implementation of lowering electricity prices for industrial and commercial businesses (excluding high energy-consuming industries) by 5%, and encouraged local governments to reduce urban land use taxes to support landlords’ rent cuts for individual businesses.

We expect more policy easing measures…

As COVID-19 is not yet under control and business resumption continues at a slow pace, most SMEs have been severely hit. We expect Beijing to further ramp up its policy support for SMEs and low-income individuals. We also expect some other easing measures in coming months to boost final demand and stabilise market sentiments:

  • We continue to expect Beijing to provide local governments with more flexibility in easing some tightening measures in their local property markets. In recent days a few banks have reportedly eased their minimum downpayment ratios for new home purchases in some cities. However, we think it unlikely that Beijing will launch another round of big stimulus packages to boost nationwide property demand like it did in H2 2015 after the stock market crisis.
  • We expect Beijing to ramp up investment in infrastructure during and after the fight against the virus, but the scale is unlikely to be massive owing to tight financial and fiscal conditions.
  • We expect Beijing to roll out some policy stimulus measures to stabilise auto sales, such as cutting auto purchase taxes, encouraging more cities to ease quota restrictions on vehicle licenses, and providing subsidies for the replacement of old cars.

…but as we detailed previously, a massive stimulus seems less likely

However, it seems unlikely that Beijing will roll out another big round of stimulus packages because:

1) the room for policy space is limited after years of stimulus and rapid accumulation of debt;

2) current account balance is worsening while foreign debt is on a rise;

3) CPI inflation may remain elevated above 5% y-o-y in H1;

4) conventional stimulus to boost investment and consumption demand may not work well amid the virus outbreak;

5) we expect a natural V-shaped recovery following the containment of the epidemic, thus adding too much stimulus could lead to an overheating. After the containment of COVID19, we expect Beijing to gradually taper off some easing measures, with no repeat of the RMB3.6trn of the PBoC’s pledged supplementary lending (PSL) money, which was used for the property sector in low-tier cities between 2015 and 2019.

*  *  *

And so, while Goldman continues to believe that Chinese investors will look through weak current demand due to Xi’s policy put.

The question is – what’s already priced in for Chinese markets? It appears a lot…

One glance at the chart above and it’s clear that the support for Chinese stocks has been unprecedented.

And all driven by re-leveraging!!??

That can’t end well, no matter what Xi says or does. However, as Goldman suggests, in its always-a-silver-lining manner, “we know demand is bad now, it’s the 2nd derivative that matters.”

But, as we noted earlier and Nomura confirms, markets may be significantly disappointed as “big stimulus” is more than priced in… and is likely to be absent from CCP policy statements as they try to juice confidence through fabricated case/death counts.

end

China Car Sales Continue To Crater, Down 83% For The Third Week In February

Chinese auto sales continue to be a sinking ship on the heels of both an auto recession that has been in full swing for the last 18-24 months – and now the impact of the coronavirus.

Though the narrative coming out of China is that the country is attempting to return to some normalcy, the data from the company’s auto market tells us very differently.Retail car sales in the country are down 83% year over year for the third week in February. For the week, the country’s auto sales dropped to 5,411 units per day, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

They also stated that vehicle production and sales would show a “more noticeable” drop in February than in January, something Zero Hedge readers already knew based on our analysis of January numbers out of China, where we said exactly that. The CAAM said that January vehicle sales fell 18.7% on the year and 27.5% on month.

But the story is going to be from February onward.

Recall, just 5 days ago we wrote that Chinese auto sales had gone into “full collapse” and fell 92% for the first half of February. 

China recorded 4,909 units sold in the first 16 days of the month, which is down from 59,930 in the same period last year. We said then what we’ll say again today: “If this figure doesn’t make it clear that the pandemic is having an effect outside of Hubei province in China, we’re not sure what will do it.

 

The China Passenger Car Association said days ago: “Very few dealerships opened in the first weeks of February and they have had very little customer traffic.”

Photographs out of China, as the virus rages its way through several major eastern cities, make the country look like something between a ghost town and wasteland.

Which it why it wasn’t surprising late last week to hear CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu say: “There was barely anybody at car dealers in the first week of February as most people stayed at home.”

Again, Zero Hedge readers should not be surprised by the February numbers. We noted that while China’s January decline was partially attributable to the coronavirus outbreak,it wasn’t until the end of January and early February when China was placed essentially on a full lockdown due to the outbreak of the virus.

We’d like to speculate that the small tick up in the third week of February is a promising sign, but we think we know better. We’ll continue to follow the story very closely and will update when new data becomes available.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK\CORONAVIRUS

UK Government Document Warns Coronavirus Could Infect 80%, Kill Half A Million Brits

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A leaked UK government document warns that under a worst case scenario, 80 per cent of Brits could be infected with the coronavirus and half a million would die.

The document, which was leaked to the Sun newspaper, outlines “the reasonable worst case” outcome in which four fifths of the country to succumb to the virus.

“The current planning assumption is that 2-3 per cent of symptomatic cases will result in a ­fatality,” states the document, meaning that 500,000 would die.

A spokesman for the Department of Health and Social Care emphasized that such numbers were a worst case scenario and “this does not mean we expect it to happen.”

Earlier today, more than 300 staff members of American oil company Chevron were evacuated from a building in London’s Canary Wharf after an employee returning from an infected country reported flu symptoms.

There are currently only 13 confirmed cases of coronavirus in England, although the World Health Organization just warned countries outside of China that they were “simply not ready” for the spread of the virus.

“It can get ready very fast, but the big shift has to be in the mindset,” said Dr Bruce Aylward, the WHO’s China envoy.

For the first time, more new cases have been reported in countries outside of China than inside, with 411 inside China and 427 outside.

 

The WHO’s Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the sudden rise in coronavirus cases in Italy, Iran and South Korea was “deeply concerning.”

As we highlighted yesterday, despite the rapid spread of the virus in Italy, EU officials have refused to consider closing the borders.

*  *  *

My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Emergency Survival Foods – delicious dishes & a 25 year shelf life!

END
 EUROPE/USA/UNIVERSITIES

US Colleges Race To Cancel Study Abroad Programs, Especially In Italy, Amid Covid-19 Spread

With the confirmed number of coronavirus cases in Italy now nearing 400, including 12 deaths, and Germany, France and Spain now witnessing a growing caseload, a growing number of American universities are now canceling their study abroad programs due to Covid-19 fears.

Fox News reports that at least seven universities have suspended programs in Italy alone — with more schools expected to take the drastic action. In many cases it involves disrupting current ongoing programs, and undergoing the logistically difficult feat of getting hundreds of students home early to the US.

 

Image via Diablo Valley College

Schools especially with programs in southeast Asia are carefully eyeing restrictions and/or suspending their programs altogether, such as Florida International University, which announced Tuesday it is halting its expansive study abroad programs in Italy, Japan, and South Korea.

The school’s executive vice president, Kenneth G. Furton, said in a statement. “Education abroad spring programs to these countries are canceled. At the same time, any students or employees who are currently on university business in those countries must return to the U.S. immediately.”

The statement those who did recently travel to these places to “quarantine themselves at home and to stay away from campus.”

Universities are concerned their programs which allow students to spend weeks, months, or often whole semesters in Europe and Asia studying and exploring foreign countries could inadvertently see students and staff sent straight into impacted countries’ virus epicenters, such as northern Italy.

 

St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican, via AP.

“This was a difficult decision for the university to make, given that these students were already immersed in these important global experiences,” the dean of global education at Elon University, Woody Pelton, which just canceled its own programs, said in a news release.

“However, the health and safety of students is our top priority,” he added.

In one notable instance, Syracuse University actually currently has hundreds of students studying abroad in Italy. CNN reports that at least 342 Syracuse students are now organizing early returns from Italy.

Elon University

@elonuniversity

Given the rapid spread of the coronavirus in Italy, Elon will suspend its study abroad program in Florence for the semester. Details – https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2020/02/25/elon-university-suspending-study-abroad-program-in-florence-italy-due-to-coronavirus-concerns/ 

View image on Twitter
See Elon University’s other Tweets

Among American universities lately canceling programs abroad include Syracuse University, New York University, Fairfield University, Elon University, Stanford University, the University of Southern California, Sacred Heart and the University of New Haven – according to Fox.

Too woke for you@Twittterpated

Stanford called their study abroad students today to have them all return. “Get out while you can” was the call a friend’s student daughter was awakened to early this morning. https://twitter.com/CryptoNiiceGuy/status/1232698944502648832 

X R P Manic Bipolar Guy@CryptoNiiceGuy

We live in da Bay Area, nobody gives a shit about the coronavirus. We have some of the best doctors in the world, Stanford & UCSF. It’s about to be like a perfect 72° today. Da only thing we missed in February is rain. God loves us,we are immune. I am sorry ya’ll have to die tho.

Students in current programs in many cases took to social media to vent their having to come home on short notice, with one noting Stanford informed program members to “get out while you still can”.

Gonzaga University in Washington state also announced late Wednesday it is suspending its Italy program, amid a fast growing trend of schools urging their students home this week.

end
UK/EU
the best outcome will occur if Boris walks away
(zerohedge)

Pound Slides As Boris Johnson Threatens To Walk Away From The Table In Opening Gambit With EU

With the coronavirus sweeping across Europe and the US preoccupied with the Democratic Primary and all of its attendant drama, we haven’t heard much from the UK and it’s ongoing struggle to forge an equitable post-Brexit relationship with the EU.

But that changed on Thursday when Boris Johnson released what is, in effect, his strategy blueprint for the trade deal negotiations. In the document, entitled “the Future Relationship with the EU: The UK’s Approach to Negotiations”, Johnson essentially asked the EU for a Canada-style trade deal. Specifically, Downing Street said it wanted “regulatory freedom” from the EU and would not accept any intrusion by the European Court of Justice in the dispute resolution mechanisms.

Downing Street said it hoped to achieve “the broad outline” of an agreement with the EU by June, which would leave the two sides “on track” to finalize a deal by September.

However, if the two sides don’t make a sufficient amount of progress by June, then Johnson’s government would “need to decide whether the UK’s attention should move away from negotiations and focus solely on continuing domestic preparations to exit the transition period in an orderly fashion.”

In other words, if the EU doesn’t drop its demands for some degree of regulatory alignment, including an option to impose tariffs if one side renegs on a deal term or terms, as well as a role for the ECJ in the future relationship, Johnson will simply walk away.

Analysts noted that this marks a decidedly hard-line stance from Johnson, whose ability to stick to his guns through controversial decisions like ‘proroguing’ parliament, has become a hallmark of his leadership. By signaling that he’d be just fine walking away from the table and reverting to WHO rules and sorting out the complications of invoking the ‘backstop’, the PM is forcing the EU27 to lay its cards on the table.

U.K. says it may start preparing for no-deal departure in January 2021 from EU Customs Union and Single Market provisions if shape of trade deal isn’t clear by June.

The pound tumbled on the announcement, which is unsurprising given the spike in political uncertainty. But considering all the pundits screaming about Johnson driving the economy off a cliff, we think it’s important to remind readers that this is likely just Johnson’s opening gambit:

Graham Jones🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇮🇱@GrahamJ18821678

I believe the EU’s current hard line is just their opening gambit. At the end of the year I’m convinced the UK and the EU will sign an agreement which will be much the same as the EU’s deal with Canada.

See Graham Jones🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇮🇱‘s other Tweets

Read the document below:

The Future Relationship Wit… by The Guardian on Scribd

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/SYRIA/LIBYA

Brain dead, Erdogan again confronts Russia and with that Yurkey had a bad day yesterday losing 3 costly drones over Syria and Libya

(zerohedge)

Erdogan’s Nightmare: 3 Turkish Drones Shot Down In 24 Hours Over Syria & Libya

The Turkish Air Force had a very bad last 24 hours, reportedly losing an unprecedented total of three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over Syria and Libya.

 

Turkish President Erdogan attents to roll out of a new fleet of high tech drones, file image.

First, a large Turkish military drone was downed over south Idlib on Tuesday. The Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported, “A unit of the army shot down a drone for the Turkish regime forces in the Dadekh region in the southeastern countryside of Idlib.”

A large Turkish drone was downed by the Syrian Army Tuesday in south Idlib countryside:

Hours later, pro-Haftar forces in Libya announced they had shot down a Turkish aircraft which took off from Mitiga International Airport in Tripoli, and also published video of the crash site.

The following morning on Wednesday, independent Libyan news sources reported Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) had shot down yet a second Turkish UAV over Tripoli, marking the third downed Turkish aircraft between the Idlib and Libyan conflict theaters.

M.LNA@LNA2019M

A second Turkish UAV was shot down in 24 hours by airdefense missile in the vicinity of Souk Al-Khamis, south of the capital . .

View image on Twitter

Pro-LNA media accounts used the opportunity to mock the Turkish military, which has had a deepening presence in Libya defending the Tripoli Government of National Accord (GNA).

“The short life of a Turkish UAV. The worst record ever of any UAV in military history,” one prominent LNA military account said, accompanied by a prior file photo of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan writing his signature on a multi-million dollar drone similar to the type that was downed.

A photoshopped image of Erdogan kneeling down to “sign” the newly crashed drone was placed by the original photo in the social media post.

M.LNA@LNA2019M

The short life of a Turkish UAV .
The worst record ever of any UAV in military history.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
69 people are talking about this

This comes as Turkey is suffering mounting troop loses in both Idlib and Libya. In rare statements Erdogan admitted to reporters Tuesday,  “We have two martyrs there in Libya.”

Published footage of the second Turkish drone downed in Libya Wednesday:

Libya Review@LibyaReview

Video showing the second Turkish UAV drone shot down by the Libyan Army south of Tripoli.

Embedded video

However, international reports suggest the true death toll could be much higher, with Haftar’s LNA claiming at least 16 Turkish soldiers have been killed in fighting.

Kevork Almassian@KevorkAlmassian

A horrific speech by in which he vows to revive the Ottoman Empire and occupy a large swath of territories extending from Libya to Crimea.
Support me through Patreon:https://www.patreon.com/SyrianaAnalysis 

Embedded video

982 people are talking about this

Turkish casualties have been mounting in Syria’s Idlib as well. Though numbers are disputed, Turkish media has cited at least a dozen killed.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday Erdogan issued Syrian and Russian forces another threat and ultimatum. “We will not step back in Idlib. We are not the guests in this realm, we are the hosts,” he told a meeting of his AK party on Wednesday.

Amid prior threats to ramp up Turkish military presence in the northwest Syrian province, which pro-Assad forces are attempting to recapture from al-Qaeda factions which have for years occupied the region, Erdogan said Assad forces have until “the end of the month” to pull out.

6.Global Issues

Not only do we have supply issues for the global economy, we now have a huge crash in new issuance of paper debt

(zerohedge)

Coronavirus Paralyzes Global Credit Market As New Issuance Crashes To Zero

In the early days, when virtually nobody paid attention to the coronavirus pandemic which China was doing everything in its power to cover up, markets were not only predictably ignoring the potential global plague – after all central banks can always print more money, or is that antibodies – but until last week, were hitting all time highs. All that changed when it became apparent that for all its data manipulation, China was simply unable to reboot its economy as hundreds of millions of workers refused to believe the government had the viral plague under control, starting a potentially catastrophic 2,3 month countdown to millions of small and medium Chinese businesses going bankrupt, resulting not only in untold devastation in the world’s 2nd largest economy but paralyzing and crippling supply chains across the world. Worse, it also triggered the biggest equity selloff in years.

And now, the coronavirus pandemic is about to leave yet another market in critical condition as the global credit machine is grinding to a halt.

As Bloomberg points out, the $2.6 trillion international bond market, where the world’s biggest companies raise money to fund everything from acquisitions to factory upgrades, came to a virtual standstill as the coronavirus spreads panic across company boardrooms.

While hardly a surprise with US equity markets suffering one of their worst selloffs since the great depression, Wall Street banks recorded their third straight day without any high-grade bond offerings,an unheard of event – especially in this day and age of ravenous yield appetite – outside of holiday and seasonal slowdowns. Across the Atlantic, European debt bankers had their first day of 2020 without a deal on Wednesday. And bond issuance in Asia, where the virus first emerged, has also slowed to a trickle.

As Bloomberg puts it, “it has been a remarkable turn of events for a market where investors had been snapping up almost anything on offer amid a global dash for yield. Europe had been enjoying its strongest ever start to a year for issuance, and sales of U.S. junk bonds have been on the busiest pace in at least a decade. With so many borrowers having postponed their issuance plans, a calming in global markets could kickstart debt sales again.”

Honeywell, Virgin Money UK and Transport for London were among the numerous European borrowers who had lined up deals before financial markets turned upside down. Before the slowdown, Europe had seen 239 billion euros ($260 billion) of bonds sold in January alone. Across in the US, the investment-grade market was expecting around $25 billion of sales this week before virus fears froze the market on Monday. Excluding the seasonally dead December holiday season and typical two-week summer hiatus in late August, there hasn’t been that long of a break to start the week since July 2018.

As shown in the chart below, after record new issuance in the investment grade market, the last week of September has seen a total paralysis in the primary market, similar to the freeze of China’s economy.

Amid a surge in uncertainty that has crushed dip buyers, and left even central bankers scrambling to figure out what the proper response is, credit investors have been rattled by the potential impact on company earnings – now that most realize collapsing supply chains could result in catastrophic number in coming quarters – from disruption caused by the virus, which has seen huge parts of global supply chains shutting down. Meanwhile, as traders await the the panic selling to kick in, a derivatives index that gauges credit market fear in the U.S. had its biggest jump in more than three years on Monday as investors rushed to hedge against a wider selloff.

“It’s a coin toss as to what tomorrow will look like, or even the rest of today,” said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen. “You have to respect the fact that when you don’t have an information advantage to not make any significant moves.”

It’s not just the IG market: offerings also came to a halt in the junk-bond market, where until the past week, $67 billion of sales had been running at the fastest pace since at least 2009, Bloomberg data showed. Mining giant Cleveland-Cliffs was the latest to try and crack the primary market freeze on Wednesday, with a $950 million offering of secured and unsecured notes testing the market in an attempt to refinance an acquisition target’s debt. And the Canadian market remained open for business as utility company Hydro One Ltd. raised C$1.1 billion ($827 million) in the largest Canadian dollar bond from a non-financial company this year.

Ironically, one can argue that there is a simple way to reboot the credit market: just offer higher yields:

Overall borrowing costs remain very low, however. A rally in U.S. Treasuries has sent all-in yields on U.S. investment-grade debt to record lows. U.S. investment-grade funds have reaped near-record inflows each week this year, as investors seek high-quality income assets. High-yield and leveraged loanfunds, however, have seen more outflows.

Almost as if investors don’t buy credit for the (relative) yield, but for the capital gains from selling it to a greater fool.

Meanwhile, the worsening pandemic is already taking a toll on companies’ balance sheets, with drinks maker Diageo set to book as much as a 325 million-pound ($422 million) hit to organic net sales. In the U.S., United Airlines Holdings withdrew its 2020 profit forecast Tuesday as it can’t guarantee its earlier earnings goal. Microsoft was the latest to cut its guidance for personal computer sales. And it’s all downhill from here.

The biggest concern however: with bond markets frozen, just how will IG-rated companies obtain the funding they need to keep buying back their stock, and pushing the market higher. In fact, one can argue that the freeze of the credit market is far more dangerous to the stock market than the inability to refinance a 1% bond with something paying 0.5%. If that’s the case, expect far more pain for stocks in coming weeks and months as the market’s entire buyback spree of the past three years goes into a very painful and dramatic reverse.

END

Scientists Discover HIV-Like “Mutation” Which Makes Coronavirus Extremely Infectious

While mainstream scientists continue to perform mental gymnastics to insist that the new coronavirus wasn’t man-made, new research from scientists in China and Europe reveal that the disease happens to have an ‘HIV-like mutation’ which allows it to bind with human cells up to 1,000 times stronger than the Sars virus, according to SCMP.

Recall that at the end of January, a team of Indian scientists wrote in a now-retracted, scandalous paper claiming that the coronavirus may have been genetically engineered to incorporate parts of the HIV genome, writing “This uncanny similarity of novel inserts in the 2019- nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature,” meaning – it was unlikely to have occurred naturally.

Fast forward to new research by a team from Nankai University, which writes that COV-19 has an ‘HIV-like mutation’ that  allows it to quickly enter the human body by binding with a receptor called ACE2 on a cell membrane.

Other highly contagious viruses, including HIV and Ebola, target an enzyme called furin, which works as a protein activator in the human body. Many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions.

When looking at the genome sequence of the new coronavirus, Professor Ruan Jishou and his team at Nankai University in Tianjin found a section of mutated genes that did not exist in Sars, but were similar to those found in HIV and Ebola. –SCMP

“This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV [the new coronavirus] may be significantly different from the Sars coronavirus in the infection pathway,” reads the paper published this month on Chinaxiv.org – a platform used by the Chinese Academy of Sciences which releases research papers prior to peer-review.

This virus may use the packing mechanisms of other viruses such as HIV,” they added.

For those confused, what the latest scientific paper claims is that whereas the Coronavirus may indeed contain a specific HIV-like feature that makes it extremely infectious, that was the result of a rather bizarre “mutation.” However, since the scientists did not make the scandalous claim that Chinese scientists had created an airborne version of HIV, but instead blamed a mutation, they will likely not be forced to retract it, even if it the odds of such a “random” mutation taking place naturally are extremely small.

As a reminder, the running narrative is that the new coronavirus lie dormant in bats somewhere between 20 and 70 years, then ‘crossed over’ to humans through and unknown species – possibly a Pangolin – before it emerged at a Wuhan, China meat market roughly 900 feet from a level-4 bioweapons lab.

And what were they researching at said lab? Among other things – why Ebola and HIV can lie dormant in bats without causing diseases.

According to the new study, the ‘mutation’ can generate a structure known as a cleavage site in the new coronavirus’ spike proteinSCMP reports. “Compared to the Sars’ way of entry, this binding method is “100 to 1,000 times” as efficient, according to the study.

The virus uses the outreaching spike protein to hook on to the host cell, but normally this protein is inactive. The cleavage site structure’s job is to cheat the human furin protein, so it will cut and activate the spike protein and cause a “direct fusion” of the viral and cellular membranes. –SCMP

(a recent paper published by Dr. Zhou Peng of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, meanwhile, is “Immunogenicity of the spike glycoprotein  of Bat SARS-like coronavirus.“)

According to the report, a follow-up study from a Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhn confirmed Nankai University’s findings.

The mutation could not be found in Sars, Mers or Bat-CoVRaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was considered the original source of the new coronavirus with 96 per cent similarity in genes, it said.

This could be “the reason why SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious than other coronaviruses”, Li wrote in a paper released on Chinarxiv on Sunday.

Meanwhile, a study by French scientist Etienne Decroly at Aix-Marseille University, which was published in the scientific journal Antiviral Research on February 10, also found a “furin-like cleavage site” that is absent in similar coronaviruses.

Chinese scientists speculate that drugs targeting the fuirn enzyme could potentially hinder the virus’ replication inside the human body. Drugs up for consideration include “a series of HIV-1 therapeutic drugs such as Indinavir, Tenofovir Alafenamide, Tenofovir Disoproxil and Dolutegravir and hepatitis C therapeutic drugs including Boceprevir and Telaprevir,” according to Li’s study.

The conclusion is in line with several reports from doctors who self-administered HIV drugs after testing positive for coronavirus, however there have been no clinical tests to confirm the theory.

All perfectly “natural.”

END

Israeli Scientists Say They Will Have Coronavirus Vaccine “In A Few Weeks”

Yesterday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the CDC’s infectious disease unit, affirmed that even though Gilead and Moderna might be ready, or almost ready, for Phase 1 trials, the US likely won’t have a workable vaccine for another year to 18 months.

And on Thursday, a team of Israeli scientists one-upped the US, boasting that they could have a vaccine ready “in a few weeks.”

According to a statement cited by the Jerusalem Post, a team of Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Israel’s Science and Technology Minister, Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available for human use in 90 days.

“Congratulations to MIGAL [The Galilee Research Institute] on this exciting breakthrough,” Akunis said. “I am confident there will be further rapid progress, enabling us to provide a needed response to the grave global COVID-19 threat,” Akunis said.

For four years, a team of scientists at MIGAL has been developing a vaccine to combat infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), which causes a bronchial disease affecting poultry. The effectiveness of the vaccine has been demonstrated during preclinical trials carried out at the Veterinary Institute.

During the process, they discovered a process for developing new vaccines that they expect will help facilitate a novel coronavirus vaccine in world-beating time.

“Our basic concept was to develop the technology and not specifically a vaccine for this kind or that kind of virus,” said Dr. Chen Katz, MIGAL’s biotechnology group leader. “The scientific framework for the vaccine is based on a new protein expression vector, which forms and secretes a chimeric soluble protein that delivers the viral antigen into mucosal tissues by self-activated endocytosis, causing the body to form antibodies against the virus.”

Here’s how the team discovered their project would be useful for the coronavirus vaccine.

In preclinical trials, the team demonstrated that the oral vaccination induces high levels of specific anti-IBV antibodies, Katz said.

“Let’s call it pure luck,” he said. “We decided to choose coronavirus as a model for our system just as a proof of concept for our technology.”

But after scientists sequenced the DNA of the novel coronavirus causing the current worldwide outbreak, the MIGAL researchers examined it and found that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human one, and that it uses the same infection mechanism, which increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine in a very short period of time, Katz said.

“All we need to do is adjust the system to the new sequence,” he said. “We are in the middle of this process, and hopefully in a few weeks we will have the vaccine in our hands. Yes, in a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent coronavirus.”

Akunis said his government has ‘fast-tracked’ all the approval processes for the vaccine to get it out as soon as possible.

MIGAL would be responsible for developing the new vaccine, but it would then have to go through a regulatory process, including clinical trials and large-scale production, Katz said.

Akunis said he has instructed his ministry’s director-general to fast-track all approval processes with the goal of bringing the human vaccine to market as quickly as possible.

“Given the urgent global need for a human coronavirus vaccine, we are doing everything we can to accelerate development,” MIGAL CEO David Zigdon said. The vaccine could “achieve safety approval in 90 days,” he said.

It will be an oral vaccine, making it particularly accessible to the general public, Zigdon said.

“We are currently in intensive discussions with potential partners that can help accelerate the in-human trials phase and expedite completion of final-product development and regulatory activities,” he said.

Israel has only confirmed a handful of cases among travelers who visited South Korea and Italy (one case they confirmed on Thursday). We wonder: If Iran does roll out a vaccine, will it share it with Iran?

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0933 UP .0048 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.04 DOWN 0.341 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2923   UP   0.0017  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3338 UP .0021 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 48 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 3.40 POINTS OR 0.11% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 82.13 POINTS OR 0.31%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,79%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 82.13POINTS OR 0.31%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.40 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 79% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 477.96  POINTS OR 2.13%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1648.70

silver:$18.06-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.30% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1,79 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98..81 DOWN 19 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.38% UP 10 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.12%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.31%//UP 6in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,08  UP 10  points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 79 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.55% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.63% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0988  UP     .0112 or 112 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.68 DOWN .695 OR YEN UP 70  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2886 DOWN .0019 POUND DOWN 19  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 48 basis points to 1.3392

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0150    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0250  (YUAN DOWN)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0295 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.12%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.27 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.77 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.44 DOWN 56  C.ENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 140.03  3.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 407.42 POINTS OR 3.19%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 188.96 POINTS 3.32%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 330.90 POINTS or 3.56%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 628.17 POINTS OR 2.65%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 46.40 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 51.30 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    66.39  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.11 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 11 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.55 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  46.40//

 

 

BRENT :  51.30

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.27  DOWN 6 BASIS BASIS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.77  DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0998 ( UP 112   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.68 DOWN .696 (YEN UP 70 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.44 DOWN 56 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2886 DOWN 19  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.2095

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.39   DO11 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3392 DOWN 48 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0150  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0250 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.55%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 1190.95 POINTS OR 4.42%

 

NASDAQ closed UDOW 2414.29 POINTS OR 4.619%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  39.16 CLOSED UP 11.60

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.302%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Worst Thing In My Career” – US Stocks Suffer Fastest Collapse From Record Highs Since Great Depression

This didn’t age well…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Highest Stock Market In History, By Far!

A sea of red…

The Dow has collapsed from a record high into ‘correction’ in the space of just six days. As we detailed earlier, this is the fastest collapse from an all-time peak since 1928, just ahead of The Great Depression:

Source: Bloomberg

As Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd declared on Bloomberg TV:

“…this is possibly the worst thing I have seen in my career… it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which you can contain the virus threat,” adding that “Europe and China are probably already in recession and US GDP will take a 1.5-2.0% hit.”

“The stock market could be down 15-20%… and would likely force The Fed’s hand.”

Bloomberg TV

@BloombergTV

Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd says the coronavirus crisis is possibly the worst thing he’s ever seen in his career: “This has the potential to reel into something extremely serious”

Embedded video

Investors are piling into safe-havens (bonds and bullion) as they dump stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Still, could be worse…

The market is already demanding 3 rate-cuts this year…

Source: Bloomberg

With the odds of an emergency cut in March soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

And, stocks have erased most of the ‘NotQE’/Repo liquidty bailout gains…

Source: Bloomberg

From the turn down last Wednesday, all the major stock indices are in correction territory, down over 10%…

The Dow was down over 12% from its highs at the lows of the day today…

Source: Bloomberg

Today was the biggest single-day point drop in Dow history…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s price action was stunning. Weakness overnight extended lower after the open, then a massive ramp higher (pushing Trannies and Small Caps briefly green), before it all fell apart again…

Dow futures show the action best – Futures were down almost 1000 points, extending the overnight losses through the open, that was followed by a quick 800 point ramp – which failed to take out overnight highs – and then faded back towards the lows into the close…Dow 26k seemed the Maginot Line…

S&P closed below 3,000…

Source: Bloomberg

and broke below its 200DMA (as did the Dow and Russell 2000), Nasdaq closed below its 100DMA…

FANG Stocks have lost $350 billion in market cap in the last 6 days…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks continue to bloodbath…

Source: Bloomberg

Airlines staged an epic comeback today after crashing at the open, but faded lower into the close to end red…

Source: Bloomberg

Why is everyone so surprised at the drop in the Dow, when earnings expectations have already plummeted…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX topped 36 intraday, dipped a little, then ramped back to 34 in the last hour…

VIX is also catching up to the outlook suggested by the collapsing yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets are crashing wider in cash and derivatives…

Source: Bloomberg

And rather stunningly, XOM’s dividend yield has exploded to its highest since Feb 1986 (as the stock price crashes)…

Source: Bloomberg

Before we move on to bonds, this is utterly insane!!! China is now dramatically outperforming US and EU stocks since the start of the virus headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s two hour panic-buying stocks, panic-selling bonds effort looked a lot like pension-rebalancing…

Source: Bloomberg

Lots of volatility in bond land today with yields crashing overnight to fresh lows, ramping back to unch after the US cash equity open, then falling back towards the record lows (down 4-5bps across the curve on the day)…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields fell to a 1.74% handle!

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar tumbled today to one-week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos bounced back today after an ugly week…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold and copper were flat today as silver and crude tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI collapsed today to a $45 handle, down a stunning 30% from the early January spike highs on Iran missile strikes…

Source: Bloomberg

And as oil prices crash, Energy credit markets are collapsing – HY Energy OAS at widest since April 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, gold was flat today as the odds of a Bernie nomination slipped modestly… but that correlation is quite stunning…

Source: Bloomberg

Partying like its the end of 1999…

Source: Bloomberg

We’re gonna need more liquidity…

Source: Bloomberg

Somebody’s got to get their boot back on the throat of global financial market volatility…

Source: Bloomberg

Seemed like the right time to bring out the deer!!

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

VIXmageddon Sends US Majors Below Critical Technical Support

VIX has exploded above 32 for the first time since the Dec 2018 collapse and all the US major equity indices are crashing to critical technical thresholds…

VIX has woken up… and its’ not reverting as fast as usual…

The Dow and Russell 2000 are now well below their 200DMA, S&P is testing down to its 200DMA, and Nasdaq has broken below the 100DMA…

Meanwhile, 10Y yield crash to a new record low with a 1.25% handle…

And gold continues to rise…

 

ii)Market data/USA

Revised Q4 2019 GDP Print At 2.1%, Just As Expected

While nobody, absolutely nobody, cares about what happened to the US economy in the end of 2019 now that everything has changed in the first quarter of 2020 when China’s GDP is now expected to print negative, crushing global economic growth and slamming US GDP as well, moments ago the BEA reported its second estimate for Q4 2019 US GDP, and at least here there was no surprises, the number coming in unchanged vs the 1st esimtate at 2.1%, and in line with expectations.

Similar to last month, the increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, government spending, exports, and housing investment, which were partially offset by decreases in inventory investment and business investment. Imports, a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased as the US imported far less goods and services. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in goods (led by motor vehicles and parts) and services (led by health care). The increase in government spending reflected increases in both federal as well as state and local government.

The decrease in inventory investment reflected a decrease in retail trade inventories (led by motor vehicle dealers). The decrease in business investment reflected a decrease in equipment (led by industrial equipment) and structures (led by mining exploration, shafts, and wells).

Looking at the variances between the 1st and 2nd revision, these primarily reflected an upward revision to inventory investment that was offset by a downward revision to business investment.

  • Personal Consumption contributed 1.17% to the bottom line GDP print, down modestly from 1.20% in the first estimate. On an annualized basis, Personal Consumption rose at a 1.7% rate, in line with expectations.
  • Fixed Investment was revised lower, from 0.01% to -0.09%
  • Changes in private Inventories subtracted -0.98%, slightly less than the -1.09% last month
  • Net trade added 1.53%, just above the 1.49% reported last month, and contributing roughly 75% of the bottom line GDP, most of it on the back of the plunge in imports.
  • Government consumption was basically flat at 0.46% vs 0.47% reported in the first reading.

The Fed got further leeway to cut rates when core PCE q/q rose 1.2% in 4Q after rising 2.1% prior quarter, and below the 1.3% estimate. Overall, the GDP price index rose 1.3% in 4Q after rising 1.8% prior quarter.

Looking at the full year data, for 2019, real GDP increased 2.3 percent, compared with 2.9 percent in 2018.

Increases in consumer spending, government spending, business investment, and inventory investment were partially offset by a decrease in housing investment and an increase in imports.

Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 1.5 percent in 2019, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in 2018. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 1.7 percent after increasing 2.3 percent.

Overall, an unremarkable print, and largely meaningless now that everything has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Highlights of Trump’s Covid-19 Press Conference

  • The number one priority from our standpoint is the health and safety of the American people. Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low… I think there is a chance it could get worse…I want it to stay low, or as low as possible.
  • We’re going to spend whatever’s appropriate.  Hopefully we’re not going to have to spend too much.” – whether it is $4B proposed by the GOP or the $8.5B that Democrats seek.
  • “We’re ready to adapt and we’re ready to do whatever we have to as the disease spreads, if it spreads.”
  • VP Pence will be in charge of the Covid-19 response effort
  • Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said the U.S. can expect more Covid19 cases
  • Trump reminded reporters that we made “good early decisions” and were ridiculed for it
  • At some point air travel to Italy and South Korea might be restricted
  • “I think the schools should be prepared…every aspect of our society should be prepared.  I don’t think it will come to that…this will end.” — @CBS_Herridge
  • On Dems’ criticism, Trump said: “Speaker Pelosi is incompetent.  I think she is not thinking about the country.  She is trying to create panic She should be saying we have to work together because we have a big problem potentially… I hope that it’s going to be a very little problem but we have to work together. Instead she wants to do the same thing with ‘Crying’ Chuck Schumer… We should be working together. All they’re trying to do is get a political advantage

@JamesOKeefeIII: Senior @ABC correspondent David Wright(@WrightUps) reveals he is a “Socialist,” Admits bosses spike news important to voters, says ABC doesn’t ‘give Trump credit for what things he does do’    https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1232666696357437441

ABC  News: “David Wright has been suspended, and to avoid any possible appearance of bias, he will be reassigned away from political coverage when he returns.”

The MSM slammed their brethren, CBS moderators, for the out-of-control Dem debate on Tuesday night.

The NYT: In a rush for attention at the Democrats’ noisy showdown, CBS’s moderators got stampeded.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/arts/television/south-carolina-democratic-debate.html

@PasteMagazine: The Bloomberg campaign has reportedly hired a comedy writer to punch up its material. Who is it, though? Nobody’s sayinghttp://bit.ly/2Te1Lvg

@Reuters: President Trump’s re-election campaign says it has filed a libel lawsuit against the New York Times, accusing the newspaper of intentionally publishing a false story last year related to the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election   https://reut.rs/2VpESHZ

George Soros gives $2M to group backing Foxx [for Cook County (Chicago) State’s Attorney; she is under federal investigation for the Jussie Smollett affair]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/2020/2/20/21146269/george-soros-kim-foxx-bill-conway-states-attorney

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

One comment

  1. Hi Harvey,

    Keep up the good work, enjoy your commentaries.
    Well stocks down, oil down, copper down, gold down, silver down,,, why???

    THe ONLY reason I can come up with is that everyone is wanting CASH.

    Perhaps to pay down debt?

    Like

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