MARCH 12//GOLD DOWN $55.05//SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS ON AN ORCHESTRATED RAID BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS//PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER SUPPLIES IN LONDON ARE SCARCE//WHO DECLARES THE COVID 19 A PANDEMIC//DOW DOWN 2392 PTS//NASDAQ DOWN 750 POINTS//NBA BASKETBALL AND NHL HOCKEY SUSPENDED FOR THE SEASON//TRUMP BANS ALL EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC FOR 30 DAYS//MORE ON THE CORONAVIRUS//SWAMP STORIES/GLAD TO BE BACK!

GOLD:$1590.60  DOWN $55.05

 

Silver:$16.03//DOWN 77 CENTS

 

 

GLAD TO BE BACK!

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold : $1576.30

 

SILVER:  $15.84

Wednesday night, never a dull MOMENT…

NBA suspends season after Utah Jazz player,GOBERT, tests positive for coronavirus PUBLISHED WED, MAR 11 20209:36 PM EDT

Trump suspends travel between U.S. and Europe for 30 days amid coronavirus pandemic

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

TODAY; NHL SUSPENDS THE SEASON!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:14/66

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,641.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/11/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 03/13/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 62
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 13
661 C JP MORGAN 14
690 C ABN AMRO 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 8
905 C ADM 31
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 66 66
MONTH TO DATE: 1,568

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 66 NOTICE(S) FOR 6600 OZ (0.2052 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1568 NOTICES FOR 156800 OZ  (4.8771 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

 

 

105 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 525,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3664 for 18,320,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $6053 DOWN 1991 dollars

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$5989 DOWN $2101

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

 

GLD: 953.20 TONNES OF GOLD//NO CHANGE

 

SLV: 359.828 MILLION OZ.//LOSS OF 1.119 MILLION OZ//

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 3820 CONTRACTS FROM 189,734 DOWN TO 183,240 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 744,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION.  AS MOST OF THE LOSS IN OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

 

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 1543 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1543 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1543 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1543 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.715 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

20.970  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAR

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 16 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. AS WE DID HAVE A NET LOSS OF 2277 CONTRACTS OR 11.385 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES!

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

19,183 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,183 CONTRACTS) OR 95.92 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2131 CONTRACTS OR 10.65 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 95.92 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 13.70% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          537.13 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S SO FAR…..          95.92 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3820,  WITH THE  16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /WEDNESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1543 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED :  2277 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE 16 CENT FALL IN PRICE)//

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1543 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 3820 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  16 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.50 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.938 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 134% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR  5,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 20.970 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 3872 CONTRACTS TO 629,598 AND MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $14.95 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// WE, MOST LIKELY HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND A HUGE EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED AND THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT STRONG FALL IN PRICE.  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE, WE GAINED A WHOPPING 19,969 CONTRACTS  (61.20 TONNES)

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 23,551 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 18,821 JUNE. 4730 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 23,551.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 629,598. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 19,679 CONTRACTS: 3872 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 23,551 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 219,679 CONTRACTS OR 61.20 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $14.95 IN GOLD TRADING.…..

AND WITH THAT STRONG LOSS IN  PRICE, SURPRISINGLY WE STILL HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 61.20  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (LOSS $14.95). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  APPRECIABLE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 WE HAD  A HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (23,551) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI.(3820 OI):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  19,679 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION…..COUPLED WITH THAT SMALL COMEX OI FALL

 

 

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE APRIL.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 141,781 CONTRACTS OR 14,178,100 oz OR 440.99 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 15,753 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 440.99 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 440.99/3550 x 100% TONNES =12.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   1664,96  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR   440.99  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3820 CONTRACTS FROM 187,060 DOWN TO 183,240 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING EXPLAINED ABOVE AND THE ISSUANCE OF HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW) WITH A MINOR AMOUNT OF LONG LIQUIDATION

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1543

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 1543; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1543 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 3820 CONTRACTS TO THE 1543 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF 2277 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  11.385 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 20.970 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 16 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1543 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. THE ENTIRE LOSS OF COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR PHYSICALS.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 45.04 POINTS OR 1.52%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 922.54 POINTS OR 3.66%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 856.43 POINTS OR 4.41%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 7.23%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0310 /Oil UP TO 30.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and 33.15 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0310 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0377 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

CHINA/USA

This is going to be quite problematic as China is now accusing the USA of starting the virus pandemic.  This is nonsense:  the virus originated in the Wuhan level 4 lab and from there it leaked out

(zerohedge_

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ECB

Clueless Lagarde unexpectedly keeps rates unchanged buy she did boost QE by 120 billion euros and expands its TLTRO terms.

It will not help

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

The entire western world is shutting down as we brace for millions of coronavirus cases

(Michael Snyder)

7. OIL ISSUES

NICK Cunningham asks:

Will Trump bail out the shale boys?

(courtesy Nick Cunningham)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Lundin is correct: the only explanation for gold’s fall yesterday and today is market intervention by government.

(Brien Lundin)/GATA

ii)Mnuchin claims that the coronavirus pandemic creates a situation for no market intervention.  I wonder what the crooks are doing for gold

(Reuters//GATA)

iii)Booth claims that the Fed cannot lower rates to zero as this would play havoc to our insurers, banks and pensions etc.

(Danielle DiMartino Booth)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Jim Cramer on a rant as he claims the government is ill informed on the how serious this is

(Jim Cramer/zerohedge)

b)Carnival halts its global cruise operations for 60 days.  it will probably be out for longer

(zerohedge)

c)This morning;/First repo operation

The Fed injects a whopping $198 billion to the criminal operations of the bankers/hedge funds trying to unfreeze paralyzed funding markets’
(zerohedge)

d)THIS AFTERNOON/2nd  Repo Announcement

boy did this escalate fast: We are now at QE4 as the Fed is to conduct a 4 trillion dollar repo over the next two days.

(zerohedge)

e)Fun and games as the Democrats are seeking lots of goodies added to the COVID 19 legislation

(zerohedge)

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 3872 CONTRACTS TO 629,598 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS FALL IN OI WAS SET WITH A STRONG LOSS OF $14.25 IN GOLD PRICING //TUESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC EFP ISSUANCE (14,935 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE HUGELY IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST..DESPITE THE LOSS PRICE IN PRICE.  BASICALLY LONGS JUST TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND A SMALL COMEX OI DECREASE.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 23,551 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 18,821,  JUNE : 4730 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 23,551 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  19,679 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 23,551 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON BUT WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 3872 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS COUPLED WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING.(FOLLOWING THE SMALL COMEX OI DECLINE)

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE DRAMATICALLY //// (IT FELL BY $14.95). THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 61.20 TONNES WAS MAINLY DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  19,679 CONTRACTS OR 19,67,900 OZ OR  61.20 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  629,598 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 62.96 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1958 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1958/2200 OR 89.01% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3820 CONTRACTS FROM 187,060 DOWN TO 183,240 (AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 16 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/WEDNESDAY.  THE LOSS IN OI WAS MITIGATED WITH  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS COUPLED WITH SOME HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING. WE DID HAVE SOME LONG LIQUIDATION. 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.

MAR ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF MAR HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 635 CONTRACTS  WITH A GAIN OF 72 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 3 CONTRACTS ISSUED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 75 CONTRACT OR 375,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARD CONTRACTS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

THE NEXT CONTRACT MONTH OF APRIL SAW A LOSS OF 54 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 541 CONTRACTS. THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 3829 DOWN TO 124,774

 

 

We, today, had  105 notice(s)  for 525,,000, OZ for the MAR, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 635,589 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:

532,592 contracts//

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MARCH/GOLD

MARCH 12

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 7,041.066 oz
includes
96.45 oz or 3 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
66 notice(s)
 6600 OZ
(0.2052 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
46 contracts
(4600 oz)
0.1430 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1568 notices
156800 OZ
4.8771 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 0  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else 0 oz

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  nil  oz

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of International Delaware:  6944.616 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 96.45 oz or 3 kilobars

total gold withdrawals;  7041.066  oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 

i) out of Brinks: 2065.286 oz or .0642 oz and it is a deemed settlement

 

 

 

 

The front month of MARCH saw its open interest register 112 contracts for a GAIN of 8 contracts.. Surprisingly we had 3 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we gained 11 contracts or an additional 1100 oz will stand on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards.  The bankers are seeking rapidly depleting physical supplies of gold.

 

APRIL HAD  a LOSS of 27,569 contracts DOWN to 334,512 contracts

May saw its ANOTHER gain of 51 contracts to stand at 605.

June saw a GAIN of 15,692 contracts up to 178,934

 

 

We had 66 notices filed today for 6600 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  MAR 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 66 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 14 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the March /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1568) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAR. (112 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (66 x 100 oz per contract) equals 161,400 OZ OR 5.0202 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (1568)x 100 oz)  + (112 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (66 x 100 oz )which equals 161,400 oz standing OR 5.0202 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a MAR. delivery month.

We gained 22 contracts or 2200 oz will stand for delivery at the comex.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

331,789.41.3 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020:  10.3200 TONNES

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  50,800.009 MILLION OZ OR 15.800.959  TONNES

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 37.485 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.611 tonnes

MARCH………………………………………………………..              5.0202 TONNES

 

total: 160.9306 tonnes

SINCE I LEFT AT THE END OF MARCH, WE HAD NO APPRECIABLE SETTLEMENTS.

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 9 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 25,709 TONNES SETTLED

 

 

IF WE ADD THE 8 DELIVERY MONTHS: 160.9306  tonnes

 

Thus:

160.9306 tonnes of delivery –

25.709 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

 

=135.2216 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 37.74 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,721,513.875 oz or  53.54 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  331,789.443 oz (or 10.3200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:  508,000.900 oz or 15.800 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,213,512.9  (37.74 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,213512.9  (37.74 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,658,986.298 oz 269.33 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS

 

1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 

 

2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

 

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MARCH 12/2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 226,748.251 oz
CNT
BRINKS
INT.DELAWARE
LOOMIS
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
105
CONTRACT(S)
(525,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
530 contracts
 2,650,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3664 contracts

18.320,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

into everybody else:  x 0

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.62% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/324.040 million

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  0   oz

 

we had 5 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  59,643.720 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 6075.800 oz

iiii) Out of Int Delaware: 30,307.491 oz

iv) Out of Loomis; 60,557.600 ox

v) Out of Scotia; 70,163.640 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 226,748.251  oz

We had 2 adjustments:

i) Out of Brinks:  107,700.490 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer account and it a deemed settlement.

ii) Out of CNT: 1,215,152.544 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer account and it is a deemed settlement.

 

total dealer silver:  80.212 million

total dealer + customer silver:  324.040 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the MAR 2020. contract month is represented by 105 contract(s) FOR 525,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3664 x 5,000 oz = 18,320,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (635) and the number of notices served upon today 105 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 3664 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (635)- number of notices served upon today (105) x 5000 oz equals 20,970,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.

WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR 55,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND

 

 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 138,597 CONTRACTS //extremely high

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 64,129 CONTRACTS..,

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 64,129 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 321 million  OZ  45.85% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.27% ((MARCH 12/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -10.34% to NAV MAR 12/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 2.27%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.96 TRADING 14.17///DISCOUNT 5.30

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonness

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD

FEB 26./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

 

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MARCH 12/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 953/26 tonnes

*IN LAST 777 TRADING DAYS: +15.82 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 677 TRADING DA

MARCH 12//YS: A NET 181.95. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY: A STRONG GAIN OF 747000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

FEB 26\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

MARCH 11//2020:  SLV INVENTORY

359.828 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO .77/ and libor 6 month duration 0.74

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 0.69%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.75

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.06

end

 

GOLD TRADING/THIS MORNING

FRAUDSTERS!

Gold Pukes Below $1600 On Massive Volume, WTI Tests $30

This is liquidation – system-wide…

Gold has been dumped back below $1600 on the back of almost 100,000 contracts

That is $16 billion notional sold through the paper markets.

WTI is also plunging in liquidation like manner…

Testing down to $30.02.

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Hedging Stock Market Crash: Euro Stoxx -6%, FTSE -5.7% and DAX -5.6%

◆ Stock markets around the world are collapsing today as the financial and economic implications of the impact of the pandemic on already massively indebted companies and governments is realised.

◆ Investors are liquidating en masse risk assets from equities to industrial commodities, while gold has held its ground.

◆ The FTSE 100 is down 5.8% in early trade, while Frankfurt’s DAX 30 plunged 6.8% the CAC 40 tumbled 6.5% and Dublin’s ISEQ index collapsed another 7.5%.

◆ Asian stock markets, already after having seen massive falls this year, crashed even further. The Nikkei in Tokyo ended down 4.4%, while Australia’s ASX lost 7.4%, the ASX 200’s worst day since the 2008 financial crisis.

Hong Kong closed down 4.4%, while Singapore, South Korea and Indonesia each lost more than 3%; India tanked more than 6% and Thailand more than 8%.

◆ The Dow Jones Industrial Average has collapsed into a bear market, ending a historic bull run and the S&P and Nasdaq look set to follow, as massive disruption to the global economy from the coronavirus pandemic intensifies, with the U.S. announcing that it’ll suspend travel from Europe to battle the outbreak.

◆ Gold is flat at $1,640/oz after slight falls yesterday and looks to be consolidating after the very strong gains seen last week and a 7% gain since the start of the year.

◆ Investors await the ECB’s policy moves today amid a stock market collapse and market mayhem the likes of which we have not seen since 2008 and 2009. Radical ultra loose, ‘bazooka’ style monetary measures are expected and these will support gold in the short term and lead to strong gains in the medium and long term.

◆ Fiscal deficits are set to surge higher and money supply growth will surge globally which is bearish for currencies and government bonds and bullish for gold.

◆ Prudent investors continue to diversify into gold in this time of crisis and we are seeing very strong demand for gold coins and bars, with investors continuing to favour storing gold in our specialist gold vaults in Zurich.

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NEWS & COMMENTARY

Gold Holds the Line in ‘Time of Crisis’ as Disruption Spirals

Gold prices ease as investors cover margins

Gold falls for a second session to mark lowest finish in over a week

U.S. closed-end high-yield bond funds fall

Dow drops 1,400 points and is on pace to close in a bear market, down 20% from its record

World Health Organization describes coronavirus outbreak as pandemic

Saudi Arabia unveils plans to maximize oil output, escalating a price war with Russia

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

11-Mar-20 1662.50 1653.75, 1284.78 1279.01 & 1468.65 1462.25
10-Mar-20 1657.40 1655.70, 1269.40 1273.23 & 1460.00 1455.86
09-Mar-20 1676.60 1672.50, 1280.75 1272.94 & 1469.04 1462.10
06-Mar-20 1687.00 1683.65, 1296.80 1290.85 & 1490.13 1484.31
05-Mar-20 1647.45 1659.60, 1274.47 1284.70 & 1474.63 1482.69
04-Mar-20 1644.80 1641.85, 1286.73 1281.63 & 1475.06 1477.83
03-Mar-20 1599.05 1615.50, 1249.98 1260.25 & 1438.03 1446.03
02-Mar-20 1609.70 1599.65, 1258.79 1251.41 & 1451.47 1437.29
28-Feb-20 1626.35 1609.85, 1262.37 1254.88 & 1474.61 1468.18
27-Feb-20 1646.60 1652.00, 1278.58 1282.45 & 1505.32 1504.97

Financial Contagion – What Are The Risks?

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Lundin is correct: the only explanation for gold’s fall yesterday and today is market intervention by government.

(Brien Lundin)/GATA

Brien Lundin: Only market manipulation by government explains gold’s fall Tuesday

 Section: 

By Brien Lundin
Gold Newsletter, Metarie, Louisiana
Tuesday, March 10, 2020

https://goldnewsletter.com/

… Gold’s decline today doesn’t seem to fit any reasonable interpretation.

If investors are flocking into equities in anticipation of significant Fed easing and government stimulus programs, they should also be piling into gold alongside stocks. If the rising stock market today is stealing the thunder, and money, from gold, then why did gold maintain its losses when the stock market dipped into the red mid-session?

… 

And yes, the U.S. dollar rebounded today after yesterday’s shellacking, but the greenback and gold have been trading with a very close, positive correlation in recent weeks. So a stronger dollar doesn’t seem like a valid reason for gold’s steep selloff today.

Maybe it’s just a normal correction after the yellow metal hit an intra-day high above $1,700 yesterday. Perhaps.

Of course, another explanation would be covert manipulation in the paper gold markets to keep the gold price — and investor worries — corralled.

As long-time readers know, I’m not a big advocate of the idea that government forces are manipulating the gold price on a daily basis. But I think it’s obvious, especially if one considers the history of previous gold-price manipulations, that someone, somewhere steps into the market at key moments.

And this is undoubtedly a key moment.

It’s also important to stress that there is only a tenuous connection, if any, between the paper gold futures market and the physical gold market. The reports I’ve read show very high physical demand internationally, particularly in Asia, while my contacts in the United States are telling me that buying here, while still somewhat depressed, is picking up.

The futures markets don’t transmit these supply/demand signals. They are in fact completely insulated from them and those trading the markets don’t care in any case. Their only motivation, outside of any covert intentions to manipulate the price, is to sell their positions to some greater fool at a profit.

The simple fact that they can “create” unlimited quantities of paper metal at a keystroke, without any repercussion, would make it a surprise if the gold market wasn’t manipulated to some extent.

Given all this, on a day like today it’s easy to believe that the gold price is being manhandled to some extent.

Regardless, the long-term factors that I’ve been discussing virtually guarantee much higher levels for gold over the next few years. …

—–

Brien Lundin is editor of Gold Newsletter and sponsor of the annual New Orleans Investment Conference. This essay is excerpted from Tuesday’s Gold Newsletter Alert 1002. For subscription information:

https://goldnewsletter.com/subscribe-now/

end

Mnuchin claims that the coronavirus pandemic creates a situation for no market intervention.  I wonder what the crooks are doing for gold

(Reuters//GATA)_

Treasury secretary says coronavirus creates no need for market intervention

 Section: 

Forget the virus. Do the creation and distribution of infinite money create a need for intervention in the gold market?

* * *

By David Lawder, Lindsay Dunsmuir, and Andrea Shalal
Reuters
Wednesday, March 11, 2020

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-mnuchin/mnuchi…

WASHINGTON — U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said banking regulators are looking at various possible short-term regulatory actions in response to the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak, but he saw no need for intervention in financial markets.

“We see no need for any intervention in the markets,” Mnuchin told reporters after a U.S. House Appropriations Committee hearing, noting that the Federal Reserve had already put liquidity into the market.

… 

“The Fed has already acted significantly in putting lots of liquidity into the market,” he said, adding that he was in daily contact with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The Fed has already put more liquidity into the banking system by increasing its daily cash injections into short-term money markets to ensure an ample supply of bank reserves.

It also cut interest rates by half a percentage point last week in its first emergency rate move since the height of the 2008 financial crisis.

Mnuchin said he convened what he called “a regular call” of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets on Tuesday. “It was intended to make sure we understood what was going on from all the regulators,” he told reporters.

Members of the working group, a subset of the Federal Stability Oversight Council, include Mnuchin, Powell, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, Securities and Exchange Chairman Jay Clayton, and other regulatory officials.

The full council will hold an open meeting on March 23 to discuss the resilience of the markets and the economic impact of COVID-19, the medical acronym for the disease caused by the coronavirus.

* * *

end

Booth claims that the Fed cannot lower rates to zero as this would play havoc to our insurers, banks and pensions etc.

(Danielle DiMartino Booth)

Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed can’t let bond yields fall to zero

 Section: 

By Danielle DiMartino Booth
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, March 10, 2020

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-10/federal-reserve-ca…

The Federal Reserve has a lot to worry about these days. And while it’s not often mentioned, at the top of the list should be preventing rates on longer term U.S. Treasuries, the world’s risk-free benchmark securities, from falling to zero.

Treasuries play a critical role in providing ample liquidity to the global financial system because they are a manifestation of the dollar’s reserve currency status. As such, they are the most important store of value and a critical hedging instrument for global market participants. The Treasury market is also the primary vehicle through which the Fed transmits monetary policy.

… 

But if yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes go to zero — a no longer ludicrous suggestion after Russia walked out of the OPEC+ meeting without a deal — then all of those key roles get upended. Especially hard hit will be banks, insurers, and pension systems worldwide.

The business model of banks is predicated on borrowing at low short-term rates and lending the proceeds at higher long-term rates. But if the gap between short- and long-term rates evaporates, lending would come to a standstill, especially if this were to happen with nominal yields falling to zero. As for pensions and insurers, they need returns of 6 to 7%, which they are definitely not getting from their holdings of stocks or credit-related securities these days. The need for potential bailouts of pensions would become a very real prospect for federal authorities.

But the Fed can take preventive measures that go beyond just cutting interest rates. In fact, the central bank should reach into its toolbox and put a floor under long-term yields. Recall that in September 2011, then Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke employed a strategy dubbed Operation Twist under which the central bank used the proceeds from maturing short-term bills and notes it held on its balance sheet to buy longer-term Treasury notes and bonds in order to narrow the yield curve. The program was so successful that 10-year Treasury yields dropped to what was then a record low of less than 1.50% in mid-2012.

The Fed should now do the opposite, though while still maintaining its intent to ease monetary policy. Call it Operation Reverse Twist with a quantitative easing kicker. The first step would be for the central bank to conduct auctions to sell its holdings of longer-term bonds in coordination with the Treasury Department. At the same time, the Fed would buy more Treasury bills and short-dated notes than it is selling from its portfolio of longer-term securities.

This would still be a net easing of monetary policy but with the aim of boosting long-term yields and preserving the integrity of the financial system. To be sure, this plan isn’t without risk. If the public interpreted the Fed’s sales of long-dated holdings as any form of tightening, that would put further pressure on equities, credit markets and other riskier assets. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues would have to form a unified communications front, which is something that could prove tricky for a central bank not known for its clear messaging.

It’s time for Fed officials to conceive a plan to combat nominal Treasury yields from falling so low that they threaten the global financial system. Powell must recognize that no two crises are alike, and what worked before may not work now.

—–

Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former adviser to the president of the Dallas Fed, is the author of “Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve Is Bad for America” and founder of Quill Intelligence.

* * *

 

 

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0310/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0377   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 45.04 POINTS OR 1.52%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 922.54 POINTS OR 3.666%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 856.43 POINTS OR 4.41%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.12/Euro FALLS TO 1.1178

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 104.91/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 30.84 and Brent: 33.15

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.78%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.74% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.43%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.52: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.98

3k Gold at $1587.20 silver at: 15.88   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 179/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.04

3m oil into the 30 dollar handle for WTI and 33 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 104.91 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9470 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0561 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.78%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.67% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.25%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.2820..//TURKEY JUST BLEW ITSELF UP

Pandemicdemonium: S&P Futures Limit Down, Europe Plunges To 2016 Lows, World Stocks Enter Bear Market

Atndemic and to calm America’s fears over the coronavirus. It did not work out as expected, because moments after Trump announced a 30-day travel ban for European flights to the US, global stocks plunged into a bear market, oil crashed, airline stocks and treasury yields plunged, and US equity futures eventually tumbled limit down.

With the pandemic wreaking havoc on the daily life of millions, investors were disappointed by the lack of broad measures in Trump’s plan to fight the pathogen, prompting traders to bet on further aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve.

“He (Trump) did not announce any new concrete measures such as a large-scale payroll tax cut to buffer the economy against the impending coronavirus slowdown,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. “That has probably disappointed markets more than anything.”

As a result, S&P 500 futures once again hit their lower trading limit a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average formally entered a bear market, ending the longest bull-run in history for American shares.

Market moves suggest monetary stimulus has reached its limits,” said Lucas Bouwhuis, a portfolio manager at Achmea Investment. “Most of the stimulus needs to come from the fiscal side and we are just not seeing enough of that yet.” Meanwhile, signs that companies in the hardest-hit industries were drawing down credit lines to battle the effects of the virus on their businesses added to anxiety.

“The market will need much more to get its confidence back,” said Mohit Kumar, managing director at Jefferies International Ltd. “The economic slowdown is because consumers won’t spend as they don’t go out or travel — you can’t make them spend by giving cheaper money. What you need is fiscal stimulus — helping SMEs and helping banks.

It wasn’t just the US: the MSCI All-Country World Index extended losses to trade more than 20% below last month’s peak, down nearly 2% on the day and putting it in bear market territory.

European shares cratered to their lowest since 2016 in one of the most epic drops in history, with the benchmark STOXX 600 index falling 5% in early deals and most industry sectors plunged more than 5%.

European travel and leisure stocks shed 8.6% on news of the airtravel ban, hitting their lowest since 2013!

Earlier in the session, Japan’s Nikkei crumbled 4.4% to a trough last seen almost three years ago while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 4.7% led by energy and materials as investors sold anything that isn’t nailed down.   Japanese stocks plunged even after another liquidity pledge from the country’s central bank.

All markets in the region were down, with Thailand’s SET dropping 11% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 falling 7.4%. The Topix declined 4.1%, with IBJ and Jeans Mate falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1.5%, with KraussMaffei and Nanjing Canatal posting the biggest slides. Australian shares plunged 7.4% to the lowest level in more than three years while Seoul’s Kospi fell 4.8% to 4-1/2-year lows with massive selling prompting a brief trade halt. Thai shares sank 8.8% to 8-year lows.

The catalyst for this pan-demic-denomium? Trump’s speech which was supposed to calm nerves, in which the president announced the US will suspend all travel from Europe, except from Britain for 30 days starting on Friday. However, Trump said trade will not be affected by the restrictions. He also announced some other steps, including instructing the Treasury Department to defer tax payments for entities hit by the virus.

“The travel ban from Europe has definitely taken everyone by surprise,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia Research at ANZ in Singapore. “Already we know the economic impact is significant, and with this additional measure on top it’s just going to multiply the impact across businesses. This is something that markets had not factored in … it’s a huge near-term economic cost.”

Investors also rushed to safe-haven assets from bonds to gold to the yen and the Swiss franc.

Treasury yields resumed their retreat after yesterday’s freak selloff, sliding by almost 20 basis points to lead a rally in the safest government debt. Oil extended losses by more than 5%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield fell to 0.6704%, though it is still above a record low of 0.318% touched on Monday. The two-year yield fell to 0.4314%, but stood well above Monday’s low of 0.251%.

In the money market, traders further raised expectations of another U.S. rate cut, even after the Fed’s emergency cut last week. Fed fund rate futures are now pricing in a large possibility of a 1.0 percentage point cut, rather than 0.75, at a policy review on March 17-18, meaning in a few days the US will be back at ZIRP.

The highly infectious coronavirus which shut down most of China for much of February is spreading rapidly in Europe and increasingly in the United States, disrupting many corners of life from education to sports, entertainment and dining. Investors worry how much of an effect policies can have in turning around the global economy given the restrictions on daily life, travel and business.

A case in point was Britain, where the FTSE stock index hit near four-year lows on Wednesday as investors doubted whether the $39 billion spending plan and the Bank of England’s 0.5 percentage point rate cut announced on Wednesday would be enough to counter the shock from the outbreak. The index fell even further on Thursday, down 6.25%. The British pound last stood at $1.2792, down 0.16% on the day.

In rates, the dollar slid against the safe-haven yen and the Swiss franc. The U.S. currency fell 0.8% to 103.63 yen and lost 0.14% to 0.9366 franc. The euro traded at $1.1265, down 0.04% ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting later in the day. The ECB is all but certain to unveil new stimulus measures, including new, ultra-cheap loans for banks to pass onto small and medium-sized firms.

In commodities, oil prices were hit by an intensifying price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, on top of fears of a sharp slowdown in the global economy. The United Arab Emirates followed Saudi Arabia in promising to raise oil output to a record high in April. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude shed 4.94% to $31.35 per barrel. Copper, seen as a gauge of global economic health because of its wide industrial use, fell to over three-year lows.

Expected data include producer prices and jobless claims. Adobe, Broadcom, Gap, and Oracle are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 5% to 2,593.25
  • MXAP down 4% to 142.12
  • MXAPJ down 4.6% to 463.87
  • Nikkei down 4.4% to 18,559.63
  • Topix down 4.1% to 1,327.88
  • Hang Seng Index down 3.7% to 24,309.07
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.5% to 2,923.49
  • Sensex down 6.5% to 33,375.67
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 7.4% to 5,304.63
  • Kospi down 3.9% to 1,834.33
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 5.7% to 314.30
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.3 bps to -0.765%
  • Euro down 0.07% to $1.1262
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 15.1 bps to 1.007%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.262%
  • Brent futures down 5.8% to $33.72/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,642.72
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.52

Top Overnight News

  • A pandemic-driven global recession is becoming more likely by the day as the flow of goods, services and people face ever- increasing restrictions
  • Christine Lagarde will bid to prevent the coronavirus outbreak from sparking a repeat of the 2008 financial turmoil when the European Central Bank finally unveils its monetary response to protect the region’s economy. The president effectively — and exceptionally — pre-committed action this week
  • A dash for cash from corporate treasurers may be about to put additional strain on global funding markets. As uncertainty grows over the ultimate economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, companies are rushing to borrow to bolster their cash reserves
  • If the oil face-off between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman turns on who has a stiffer fiscal backbone, it’s the ruble that could help carry Russia to the finish line
  • Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he discussed recent market volatility with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a meeting following further sharp falls in stocks and gains in the yen ahead of a central bank policy meeting next week

Asian equity markets traded with hefty losses again after another bloodbath on Wall St where the DJIA slipped by almost 1500 points and into bear market territory due to the ongoing fallout from the coronavirus which the World Health Organization labelled as a global pandemic, while the sell-off extended overnight in which Dow futures fell below the 23k level with losses of as much as 1200 points and Nasdaq futures hit limit down after US President Trump’s primetime address was met with disappointment. President Trump announced to suspend all travel from the EU to the US for 30 days which does not apply to the UK and he unveiled several relief measures including support for small businesses, the deferral of some tax payments and called on Congress for immediate payroll tax relief, although these failed to appease markets and the travel restrictions subsequently dragged EURO STOXX 50 futures lower by as much as 8%. ASX 200 (-7.4%) and Nikkei 225 (-4.4%) slumped with energy and commodity-related stocks front running the broad losses in Australia which saw the index post its worst decline since 2008 despite the government announcement of measures valued at AUD 17.6bln in response to the outbreak, while the Japanese benchmark collapsed on the weight of the JPY inflows and languished firmly below the 19k level where the BoJ flagged it would incur losses on ETF holdings. Hang Seng (-3.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.5%) conformed to the negative tone amid the global rout and after weaker than expected Chinese lending data, but with losses in the mainland at a lesser extent as China’s coronavirus updates continued to show a moderation in additional cases. Finally, 10yr JGBs were pressured at the open and briefly fell below 154.00 on initial spill over selling from USTs, although Japanese bond prices then briefly reversed some of the losses as the sell-off in stocks worsened, before selling resumed once again in the aftermath of the 20yr JGB auction which showed weaker results across all metrics.

Top Asian News

  • Record Spike in Fear Has This Hedge Fund Go Long on India Stocks
  • Thailand Stock Benchmark Plunges 10%, Triggers Trading Halt
  • Hermes, Prada Raised at Bernstein as Virus Goes Global
  • Hong Kong Next Up in World’s Growing List of Stock Bear Markets

Another detrimental session for the equity space as the impact of the virus outbreak further materialises across the globe and with US measures to tackle the pandemic seemingly deemed unsatisfactory by markets. APAC stocks suffered hefty losses overnight, with the Aussie index ending the session over 7.5% lower, whilst Japan’s Nikkei gave up the key 19k handle and some more. Meanwhile, the sentiment reverberated in US and EU equity futures with the former trickling lower to trade at/near their respective 5% limit downs (Full details of levels available on the headline feed), futures across the pond fare no better. In terms of cash markets, European stocks show broad-based losses to the tune of 5.5-7.0% [Eurostoxx 50 -5.5%] with losses of similar magnitude reflected across sectors, although defensive fare slightly better than the cyclicals. Zooming into the sectors, EU Travel & Leisure underperforms its peers after US President Trump announced a 30-day travel ban to Europe. As such, the likes of Norwegian Air Shuttle (-21%), Lufthansa (-9.9%), Air-France (-11.0%), easyJet (-5.4%) all under pressure alongside cruise names. Financial names meanwhile bear the brunt of the low-yield environment; Barclays (-8.9%), Deutsche Bank (-8.3%), Commerzbank (-8.8%), BNP Paribas (-7.0%), UBS (-6.2%). In terms of individual movers, Nestle (-3.7%) failed to gain impetus from source reports that it is progressing with the sale of its China unit Yinlu Foods for ~USD 1bln. AstraZeneca (-4.0%) underperforms vs. the sector after its Phase III trial for Cediranib did not meet its primary endpoint.

Top European News

  • Finablr Taking Urgent Steps on Liquidity as NMC Fallout Spreads
  • Orange Is Said to Invite Initial Bids for French Fiber Project
  • European Airline and Travel Stocks Plunge to Lowest Since 2013
  • Verbund in Exclusive Talks to Buy OMV’s 51% of Gas Connect

In FX, although the Dollar is on a somewhat mixed footing against major counterparts and the US Treasury curve has flipped back into bull-steepening mode, the DXY has bounced firmly from overnight lows and back above 96.500 to breach Fib resistance at 96.695 by virtue of heftier gains vs high beta, activity, risk and even yield rivals, not to mention even more pronounced appreciation relative to floundering EM currencies. On that note, even the recently resilient YUAN is succumbing to the latest bout of safe-haven positioning irrespective of latest reports that nCoV has peaked and the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak is returning to normal, as Usd/Cnh crosses the psychological 7.0000 mark again.

  • AUD/NZD – The Aussie has pulled back further towards 0.6400 and through 1.0300 in Kiwi cross terms amidst renewed risk-off trade, and hardly getting any relief from a substantial fiscal injection overnight, while its Antipodean peer has fallen in sympathy from 0.6300+ to sub-0.6250 territory awaiting the RBNZ for more independent impetus and more immediately NZ manufacturing PMI tonight.
  • NOK/SEK/GBP/EUR – Also on the backfoot, with Eur/Nok soaring beyond 11.0000 to another new ATH circa 11.1675 amidst a deeper retracement in crude prices and calls for the Norges Bank to cut the benchmark depo rate by 50 bp next week. Eur/Sek lagging on less dovish Riksbank vibes and mixed Swedish inflation data, while Sterling is back down near early March lows (Cable around 1.2750 and Eur/Gbp 0.8800+) in wake of yesterday’s emergency BoE ease and UK budget excesses. However, the Euro has unwound more post-Fed rate cut strength vs the Greenback in the run up to the ECB amidst high uncertainty over the likely policy adjustments given elevated anticipation for something big like last September’s multi-faceted salvo (check out the Newsquawk Research Suite for a full preview of the March policy meeting that comes with updated Staff forecasts). Eur/Usd has lost grip of 1.1300 and 1.1250 to probe technical support between 1.1239-13 that spans a Fib retracement level.
  • JPY/CAD/CHF – Relative G10 outperformers or at least displaying a degree of resistance to the Buck’s ongoing revival, as the Yen holds above 104.00, albeit off best levels following yet more talk about imminent or impending BoJ stimulus to supplement Japanese Government measures. Meanwhile, the Loonie is trying to contain losses within a 1.3821-3752 band against the backdrop of renewed pressure on oil and the Franc is firm, though contingent on the SNB’s reaction to what unfolds in Frankfurt via the ECB.
  • EM – As noted above, broad and hefty losses for regional currencies due to well documented negative factors, but with the Rouble and Mexican Peso particularly weak due to crude correlations

In commodities, further downside in WTI and Brent front-month futures as the complex continues its OPEC and virus-induced sell-off with the overall narrative around the market largely unchanged, although additional bearish factors include WHO labelling the outbreak as a pandemic and US President Trump announcing a 30-day travel ban to Europe. The contracts are under further pressure from bearish comments from the Russian Deputy Energy Minister who suggested that deeper oil cuts would be ineffective and challenging – alluding to a reaffirmation in stance as Saudi attempts to force Moscow’s hand to agree to further reductions. That said, Energy Ministry Novak stated that the OPEC+ JTC on March 18th will be conducted by video conference – which was signalled earlier but the notion suggests that Russia is willing to cooperate with the other oil producers despite the soured relations with Saudi Arabia. However, the Russian Energy Minister is set to meet with Russian oil companies today to discuss the OPEC situation, with expectations skewed to no-change in their stance regarding cuts. WTI Apr’20 and Brent May’20 hold onto losses of ~5% at the time of writing as the former briefly breached USD 31/bbl to the downside in APAC trade whilst the latter found an overnight base sub-33.50/bbl. Conversely, the risk-off sentiment has kept an underlying bid in spot gold which resides just south of the USD 1650/oz level. As a reminder, desks note that gold prices could be less supported amid a stock-market selloff as traders and investors will need to close positions to account for decaying margins. Elsewhere, copper prices continue to suffer amid the broad risk-off sentiment with prices firmly back under the USD 2.5/lb mark.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.5%; Final Demand YoY, est. 1.8%, prior 2.1%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%; PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.7%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%; PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.5%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 216,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.73m, prior 1.73m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 63
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $573.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We wake up to another wild rise in Asia (S&P futures down another -3% plus) after an extraordinary intervention from the US President. Mr. Trump announced in an Oval Office address to the nation that all travel from Europe to the US would be suspended for the next 30 days. Interestingly this does not cover the UK. This means avoiding all but essential travel to the region. In his speech he actually said that this will “not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo but various other things”. The White House had to clarify after that this would only apply to people and not goods. Mr Trump also clarified this in a tweet but this has left markets rattled.

The President said that the government would extend tax-holidays to certain individuals and businesses, as well as looking to provide emergency funds to small businesses in the form of low interest loans with $50bn ear marked. The president also asked Congress to look at sick-leave for hourly workers and reiterated that he is seeking cuts to payroll taxes but didn’t specify the amount. There will likely be more details to come and political negotiations will have to take place on some measures. Elsewhere, the Washington Post has reported overnight that Mr. Trump had asked Mnuchin at a meeting on Monday to speak with the Fed Chair Powell and urge him to take greater steps to stop the stock market falling. The report further added that Mr. Trump also complained that Powell should never have been appointed and that the Fed chair is damaging his presidency and the nation.

Overnight, the House Democrats have also introduced their coronavirus legislation that would provide emergency paid sick leave, enhanced unemployment benefits and free coronavirus testing. Bloomberg is reporting that speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to have the chamber vote on the bill today. Elsewhere, Derivatives exchange CME Group said that it will close its famed trading pits in Chicago at the end of Friday, a precaution to prevent a large gathering that may contribute to the virus’s spread.

A quick look at Asia shows that the risk off is continuing with aggressive momentum as the Nasdaq and Dow futures have both hit their daily limit down while the S&P 500 futures are down -3.17% as President Trump’s confusing address fell short of fiscal stimulus details that the market was expecting. Asian equity bourses are also trading in a sea of red with the Nikkei (-3.79%), Hang Seng (-3.56%), Shanghai Comp (-1.33%) and Kospi (-3.57%) all down. As for fx, the Japanese yen is up +0.59% and the Swiss franc is up +0.37%. Amidst continued volatility 10y USTs yields are back down -6.1bps to 0.811% and crude oil prices are down c. -5% this morning while gold is trading flat.

In other virus related news, Australia announced a AUD 17.6bn ($11.4bn) fiscal stimulus package geared towards the second quarter. Elsewhere the NBA said overnight that it is suspending the remainder of the basketball season after a player tested positive for the virus. Arguably the highest profile person to catch the virus has been announced with actor Tom Hanks announcing that he and his wife have contracted it.

Meanwhile Italy is further locking down the country and running only essential services. All shops outside of groceries and pharmacies will close until March 25th. Bars and Restaurants will also shut. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see other places in Europe migrate towards this over the next couple of weeks. In some ways this feels worse than the GFC. At least life and the economy went on as normal for the vast majority then. This crisis is literally forcing many activities to grind to a total halt. Everyone is being impacted.

Ahead of today’s very key ECB meeting, the daily monster swings in markets are becoming almost second nature at the moment with yesterday’s -4.89% close for the S&P 500 the 9th move of at least 3% either up or down in the last 13 sessions. A remarkable statistic. It’s also the fourth down day in the last five sessions which has seen the S&P shed $3.3tn in market cap. Since the peak last month the index has now shed $6.1tn in total which is roughly $1trl more than the GDP of Japan, which is 3rd in the world. The index briefly fell into “bear market” territory before rallying slightly into the end of the day. The sell-off got a mid US session kicker with the WHO finally declaring the outbreak a pandemic but it was already down well over -3% by then.

One of the most fascinating things about this virus is whether the response from authorities are proportionate to the risks. It’s also fascinating to see the extreme commentary. Indeed Mrs Merkel yesterday said in a press conference with the country’s Health Minister that 60-70% of the German population could catch covid-19 at some point unless measures were found and taken to slow the spread of the disease. It wasn’t clear if that was meant to be a multi-year forecast but to put it in prospective 0.006% of the Chinese population has so far tested positive for the virus and new cases over the last few days have been down to a 20 to 40 people per day range, or a growth rate close to 0.05% at the high end. At that daily rate it would take around 52 years to infect 70% of the population of China. Similarly, the attending physician of the U.S. Congress & Supreme Court briefed Senate Staff in a closed-door meeting that he expects anywhere from 70 up to 150 million people in the U.S. to contract coronavirus (according to CNBC), which is 20-45% of the entire country. Now clearly China (and South Korea who have also managed to control the rise in new cases this week), have been very strict at locking down the main sources of the spread and there still could be a second wave but that is still a huge bid-offer between 0.006% and 70% of the population.

Back to yesterday and the NASDAQ (-4.70%) and DOW (-5.86%) – which officially fell into a bear market at the end of the session – also had days to forget while Europe, which actually opened with strong gains, finished in the red across the board. The STOXX 600 in particular closing -0.74% with a -3.24% drop from the highs. Meanwhile the VIX closed above 50 again at 53.9. HY credit also struggled with cash HY spreads +23bps wider in the US and energy spreads +91bps wider. CDX HY finished +57bps wider and CDX IG +10.7bps.

Treasury yields traded in more big ranges. Indeed 10y yields traded in a 16bp range most of the session before breaking just higher to finish at 0.870%. 30y year yields also rallied 11bps. Fiscal headlines rattled the market with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announcing support for smaller and medium-sized businesses and also certain sectors like the travel industry, impacted by the coronavirus. Mnuchin also said that the administration sees no need for intervention in the markets. Elsewhere Italian debt rallied 15.1bps as expectations built ahead of today’s ECB meeting.

Talking of which, in light of everything in recent weeks, today ranks up there in terms of one of the more hotly anticipated ECB meetings. Our economists revised their expectations this week and expect the following; (1) a new targeted liquidity facility (e.g. a short-term LTRO aiming to boost SME lending in affected regions); (2) a 10bp deposit rate cut; (3) a policy to supplement general liquidity conditions. The latter is the bigger question mark in terms of how the ECB achieves this. Our colleagues note that a TLTRO-based policy may be easier but as a passive means of expanding the balance sheet may be less effective. Private asset purchases might be more effective, but their costs bring limits. Low yields mean sovereign purchases are not obviously needed, but would inject market confidence if seen as policy coordination.

For the market its fiscally-equivalent policy that will likely have the greatest impact. The concern is that all the announcements we’ve seen globally this week appear to have underwhelmed so the market’s bar is high. Speaking of which, here in the UK there was no shortage of hype suggesting that the UK budget could see one of the biggest injections of stimulus in decades. However in the end it underwhelmed even if the media painted as a high spending budget. Chancellor Sunak announced that the UK would be staying within the fiscal rules with another review to come in the autumn. Our UK economists made the point that the market was expecting borrowing this year of £67bn which equates to 3% of GDP however in the end the OBR announced PSNB of 2.4%.

Of course this came after the BoE announced a 50bp rate cut just after we went to press yesterday which now seems an age ago. This has taken the bank rate down to 0.25%. The countercyclical capital buffer was also cut 100bps to 0% and a new term funding scheme for SMEs was announced. The market was pricing in a fair amount of easing from the BoE (not quite 50bps) but the timing was a bit of a surprise even if the Fed raised the risk of this happening sooner. Carney said in a conference call a couple hours after the decision that the “BoE will take all necessary steps to help the UK” and that there is “additional room in all policy instruments if needed”. Bailey added that the BoE sees 125bps of further easing available when other tools are included which when you consider the level of rates implies mostly through fiscal, further liquidity injections and asset purchases.

In the UK’s defence this was the most coordinated monetary and fiscal response so far in the main economies and more could easily come if the desire was there. It just wasn’t as much on the fiscal side as markets expected.

In terms of the day ahead, the ECB will be front and centre clearly with the macro data still mostly backward looking pre coronavirus. For completeness we get January industrial production for the Euro Area and February PPI in the US. One data point potentially worth keeping a closer eye on though is jobless claims which will cover the week ending March 7th.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 45.04 POINTS OR 1.52%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 922.54 POINTS OR 3.66%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 856.43 POINTS OR 4.41%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 7.23%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0310 /Oil UP TO 30.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and 33.15 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0310 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0377 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA AFFAIRS

CHINA/USA

This is going to be quite problematic as China is now accusing the USA of starting the virus pandemic.  This is nonsense:  the virus originated in the Wuhan level 4 lab and from there it leaked out

(zerohedge_

‘US Army Behind Covid-19 In Wuhan’: China’s Foreign Ministry Levels Bombastic Charge

A truly bombshell and unprecedented accusation, underscoring that if Sino-US relations amid the broader crisis weren’t already bad enough, they’re about to crash much, much lower: China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman tweets it might be the US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan” — the widely acknowledged epicenter and origin point of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Such shock allegations have recently been swirling in foreign media, especially in Chinese, Iranian and Russian press; however, this is the first time such a high Beijing has leveled the charge — this after President Trump controversially referred to it as a “foreign virus”. 

Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian made the remarks on his official Twitter account Thursday, citing prior televised testimony by CDC Director Robert Redfield to the House Oversight Committee:

Lijian Zhao 赵立坚

@zlj517

2/2 CDC was caught on the spot. When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!

Embedded video

After for months the globe wrangled over “patient zero” and origin points in China, including scrutiny focused on the Chinese state-owned virology lab in Wuhan, which itself happened to be in the ground zero hot zone, it appears Beijing is now aggressively deflecting “blame” for the spread.

“Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!” [sic] Lijian demanded.

 

Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, file image.

He said:

When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent!

So it appears the official Chinese party line is now that the virus originated in the United States!

The charge appears rooted in the part of Redfield’s testimony where he said early Covid-19 cases were mistaken for regular influenza.

Lijian Zhao 赵立坚

@zlj517

1/2 CDC Director Robert Redfield admitted some Americans who seemingly died from influenza were tested positive for novel in the posthumous diagnosis, during the House Oversight Committee Wednesday.

Embedded video

Formerly as deputy chief of mission at China’s embassy in Pakistan, Lijian actually has a history of combative and bombastic statements on Twitter that many in the West have actually compared to Donald Trump’s social media style of unfiltered accusations.

It’ll be interesting to see if other top officials in Beijing and in the Communist Party double down on this tweets and affirm these “suspicions” and outlandish accusations leveled at Washington.

END

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ECB

Clueless Lagarde unexpectedly keeps rates unchanged buy she did boost QE by 120 billion euros and expands its TLTRO terms.

It will not help

(zerohedge)

ECB Unexpectedly Keeps Rates Unchanged, Boost QE By €120BN, Expands TLTRO Terms

Surprising many who were expecting a rate cut from the ECB this morning, moments ago Christine Lagarde announced that rates would remain unchanged, with the all important deposit rate unchanged at -0.50%. However, in order to alleviate liquidity shortages, the ECB did surprise everyone by announcing a boost to its QE, adding a “Temporary Envelope of EU120B in Asset Purchases.” The ECB also announced a new LTRO “with an interest rate that is equal to the average rate on the deposit facility. The LTROs will provide liquidity at favourable terms to bridge the period until the TLTRO III operation in June 2020. Finally, the ECB noted that “considerably more favourable terms will be applied during the period from June 2020 to June 2021 to all TLTRO III operations outstanding during that same time.”

Some more details on the targeted long-term refinancing operations:

  • LTRO Will Have Rate Equal to Deposit Rate
  • TLTRO III T0 Have More Favorable Terms June 2020-June 2021
  • TLTRO III Measures Will Support SME Lending
  • TLTRO III Rate Can Be as Low as 25bps Below Average Deposit Rate

In short: no rate cut, but additional QE, new LTROs and more favorable TLTRO terms.

The full statement is below:

Monetary policy decisions

At today’s meeting the Governing Council decided on a comprehensive package of monetary policy measures:

(1) Additional longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) will be conducted, temporarily, to provide immediate liquidity support to the euro area financial system. Although the Governing Council does not see material signs of strains in money markets or liquidity shortages in the banking system, these operations will provide an effective backstop in case of need. They will be carried out through a fixed rate tender procedure with full allotment, with an interest rate that is equal to the average rate on the deposit facility. The LTROs will provide liquidity at favourable terms to bridge the period until the TLTRO III operation in June 2020.

(2) In TLTRO III, considerably more favourable terms will be applied during the period from June 2020 to June 2021 to all TLTRO III operations outstanding during that same time. These operations will support bank lending to those affected most by the spread of the coronavirus, in particular small and medium-sized enterprises. Throughout this period, the interest rate on these TLTRO III operations will be 25 basis points below the average rate applied in the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations. For counterparties that maintain their levels of credit provision, the rate applied in these operations will be lower, and, over the period ending in June 2021, can be as low as 25 basis points below the average interest rate on the deposit facility. Moreover, the maximum total amount that counterparties will henceforth be entitled to borrow in TLTRO III operations is raised to 50% of their stock of eligible loans as at 28 February 2019. In this context, the Governing Council will mandate the Eurosystem committees to investigate collateral easing measures to ensure that counterparties continue to be able to make full use of the funding support.

(3) A temporary envelope of additional net asset purchases of €120 billion will be added until the end of the year, ensuring a strong contribution from the private sector purchase programmes. In combination with the existing asset purchase programme (APP), this will support favourable financing conditions for the real economy in times of heightened uncertainty.

The Governing Council continues to expect net asset purchases to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.

(4) The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.

(5) Reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP will continue, in full, for an extended period of time past the date when the Governing Council starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

Further details on the precise terms of the new operations will be published in dedicated press releases this afternoon at 15:30 CET.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

Expect a torrid press conference in about 40 minutes where the new ECB head explains the reasons behind the liquidity panic.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

The entire western world is shutting down as we brace for millions of coronavirus cases

(Michael Snyder)

The Entire Western World Is Shutting Down As Authorities Brace For “Millions” Of Coronavirus Cases

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Since the end of World War II, have we ever seen the entire globe gripped by so much fear?  This week, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe has absolutely exploded, and authorities all over the western world are rushing to shut down public gatherings of all kinds.  The NCAA has banned fans from upcoming tournament games, the NBA just suspended the entire season because a Utah Jazz player tested positive, and dozens of other sporting events have been canceled all over the planet.  In both the U.S. and Europe, schools are being shut down for weeks, some universities are telling their students not to come back for the rest of the semester, and a whole host of concerts, conferences, festivals and religious gatherings are either being postponed or canceled altogether.

We have never seen anything like this before, and the implications are staggering.

Keeping everyone at home for a few weeks is one thing.

But what is going to happen if this pandemic just keeps growing for the rest of this calendar year or even longer?

According to NBC News, the attending physician of Congress believes that “70 million to 150 million people in the United States will become infected”…

Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court, said he expects 70 million to 150 million people in the United States will become infected with COVID-19, NBC News reported Wednesday, citing two sources.

Monahan made the comments to Senate staff during a closed-door meeting Tuesday afternoon, according to NBC News.

Right now, there are less than 2,000 confirmed cases in this country and fear is off the charts.

Can you imagine the societal meltdown that will ensue if 70 million Americans get infected?

Dr. Anthony Fauci is also warning that we we should expect to see “more cases” and that things will continue to “get worse”

“I can say we will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Wednesday at a hearing on the nation’s preparedness for the outbreak.

Unfortunately, these sorts of warnings don’t hit home for many Americans until someone that they personally love is affected.

But now that Tom Hanks and his wife have both tested positive, a lot of people that previously did not take this outbreak seriously are now officially freaking out.

Tom Hanks is one of the most greatly loved actors in America, and this is going to be the moment when a lot of Americans finally wake up and realize that this virus is definitely not “like the flu”.

Over in Europe, things are actually quite a bit worse than they are in the United States right now.  Just like Italy, Denmark has just locked down the entire country, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel continues to warn that 70 percent of the German population could eventually become infected

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that up to 70% of the country’s population – some 58 million people – could contract the coronavirus.

Mrs Merkel made the stark prediction at a news conference on Wednesday alongside Health Minister Jens Spahn.

But it may take a couple of years to get to that number.

So what are we going to do?  Are we actually going to shut down the entire western world for the foreseeable future?

If you go look at the map that Johns Hopkins has put up, the numbers coming out of Europe right now are like something out of a science fiction movie.

And as I discussed yesterday, the U.S. is on the exact same trajectory.

This is definitely a virus that you want to avoid if at all possible.  In many instances it causes devastating damage to the lungs, and even if you survive your lungs may not ever fully recover.

One of the very first confirmed British cases said that the virus hit him “like a train” and had him “in blinding pain for weeks”.

Has the flu ever left you “in blinding pain for weeks”?

Of course not.

And he was one of the fortunate ones that survived.  For those that die, the suffering can be far worse.

I truly don’t understand why there are still people out there that are attempting to downplay this pandemic.  This is a truly insidious virus, and numerous experts are warning that it could eventually kill millions.

As I wrap up this article, I would like to share with you an excerpt from a firsthand account from an American that is right in the middle of the nightmare that is currently unfolding in Italy.  I think that you will find what Christina Higgins posted on her Facebook page to be quite sobering…

When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lock down, the line that struck me most was “there is no more time.” Because to be clear, this national lock down, is a hail mary. What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse.

Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. If the numbers do not go down, the growth rate of contagion tells us that there will be thousands of people who in a matter of a week? two weeks? who will need care. What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left?

On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse.

There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there?

And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients – 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment.

You have a chance to make a difference and stop the spread in your country. Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can. If you have a fever, any fever, stay home. Push for school closures, now. Anything you can do to stop the spread, because it is spreading in your communities – there is a two week incubation period – and if you do these things now you can buy your medical system time.

And for those who say it is not possible to close the schools, and do all these other things, locking down Italy was beyond anyone’s imagination a week ago.

Soon you will not have a choice, so do what you can now.

Please share.

No matter how many reassuring press conferences our leaders hold, and no matter what moves global central banks make, most people are going to want to avoid places where they could become infected as long as this virus keeps spreading.

If our normal lives are interrupted for a few weeks, it ultimately won’t be that big of a deal.

But if this crisis just keeps going month after month, it will quickly bring us to the brink of societal collapse.

Let us pray for a miracle, because we definitely need one right now.

 

end

7. Oil issues

NICK Cunningham asks:

Will Trump bail out the shale boys?

(courtesy Nick Cunningham)

 

Will Trump Bail U.S. Shale Out?

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

The White House is considering a rescue package for the U.S. shale industry, although the idea is getting pushback from so many sides that it faces challenging odds of passing into law.

According to the Washington Post, the White House warmed to the idea of aid for shale drillers after taking calls from oil executives “who have voiced concern and at times exasperation,” following the sudden crash in oil prices. Of note, Continental Resources’ Harold Hamm reached out to the Trump administration, though Hamm said he had not made “direct” contact. He has been a personal supporter of President Trump.

Hamm reportedly lost $2 billion personally on Monday from his 77 percent stake in Continental Resources. Hamm said the administration should consider “any action that the administration might take to protect and preserve American interests at this time from being unfairly disadvantaged by whatever government — and we’re talking governments here, whether it be Russia or Saudi Arabia,” according to the Post.

The help would involve low interest loans to shale companies because access to credit has been largely choked off, the Post said.

Indeed, with much of the industry heavily indebted, access to capital is a critical issue. During the 2014-2016 downturn, so many drillers survived and returned to growth due to a nearly endless supply of credit and equity supplied by banks, investors and private equity. The major recapitalization effort revived shale drilling after a brief downturn.

This time around, investors are no longer interested in financing unprofitable drilling. Trump wants the government to step in to prop up failing companies.

But the idea was met with howls of criticism immediately after the Post broke the story. The proposal was panned by Democrats, who Trump will need to pass anything.

“Instead of lining the pockets of Big Oil, Democrats are working on legislation to protect the financial security of working families affected by the spread of the coronavirus,” Evan Hollander, communications director for the House Appropriations Committee, told Oilprice.com

“No matter how many oil billionaires lose their shirts and call President Trump, House Democrats will stay focused on the real needs of the American people.”

Instead, he said the Democratic side wants any economic stimulus should focus on things like paid sick leave, enhanced unemployment insurance, food security, free coronavirus testing and affordable treatment. Not rescue packages for shale drillers.

But, perhaps more surprisingly, the proposed shale bailout was also met with skepticism from traditional allies of the oil and gas industry. The head of the American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry’s most powerful lobby group, shot down the idea. “We believe we shouldn’t be reacting to one day of a market downturn,” API CEO Mike Sommers said, according to the Washington Examiner.

Anne Bradbury, CEO of AXPC, an industry group representing 25 independent oil and gas producers, told the Post:

“We believe in the free market system and will advocate for policies that support a level playing field to address geopolitical manipulation of the market,” Bradbury said.

Reading between the lines, one could interpret “support” for a “level playing field” as support for government assistance, although the language is obviously vague. Bradbury later said in a follow-up interview with the Post that “we are not seeking a bailout.”

On Wednesday, Secretary of Treasury Steve Mnuchin said that aid to struggling industries, including airlines, cruises and the oil industry should not be described as a “bailout.”

“I want to be clear: This is not bailouts. We are not looking for bailouts,” he said.

“But there may be specific industries that are highly impacted by travel and have issues with lending.”

There was skepticism elsewhere.

“It sounds like a bailout to me,” Paul Winfree of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, told the Post.

“We are going to have to see specifics, but when you are dealing with special treatment given to one industry or sector of the economy, that is, almost by definition, a bailout.”

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that oil lobbyists are pushing the Trump administration to buy up oil for the strategic oil reserve (SPR), in order to mop up some of the excess supply on the market. Bloomberg reported that the administration is also considering lowering royalty rates for drillers on federal land. Already, many in Congress on both sides of the aisle consider the royalty rates too low.

But help for the shale industry will be difficult. Even an anonymous “senior administration official” told the Post that political blowback might scuttle the idea.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1178 DOWN .0085 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS/CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 104.91 UP 0.374 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2592   DOWN   0.02247  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3803 UP .0029 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 85 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1178 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 45.04 POINTS OR 1.52% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 922.54 POINTS OR 3.66%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 922.54 POINTS OR 3.66%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 45.04 POINTS OR 1.52%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 7.23% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 856.43  POINTS OR 4.41%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1587.20

silver:$15.88-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.67% !!! DOWN 15 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.25 DOWN 14  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.12 UP 61 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.73% UP 32 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.08%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.51%// UP 25 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,76 UP 58 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 125 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.75% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.51% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1172  DOWN     .0089 or 89 basis points

USA/Japan: 104.75 UP .216 OR YEN DOWN 22  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2581 DOWN .0236 POUND DOWN 236  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 141 basis points to 1.3913

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0297    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0269  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.3166  THEY ARE TOAST!

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.08%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.84 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.43 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.30 UP 79  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 639.04  10.87%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 1277.85 POINTS OR 12.24%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 565.99 POINTS 12.28%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 1045.50 POINTS or 14.06%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 3034.20 POINTS OR 16.92%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 30.46 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 32.78 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    74.69  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 1.45 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 145 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.75 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  30.86//

 

 

BRENT :  32.78

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: ….84  plus 1 basis pt…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.43..plus 4 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1172 ( DOWN 89   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:104.75 UP .216 (YEN DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.30 UP 79 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2581 DOWN 236  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.3166…THEY ARE TOAST

 

 

the Russian rouble 74.69   DOWN 1.45 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 145 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3913 DOWN 141 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.75%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 2392.60 POINTS OR 9.99%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 750.25 POINTS OR 9.43%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  75.47 CLOSED UP 21.57

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.772%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Black Thursday: “One Giant Margin Call”

Rosenberg Research‘s David Rosenberg provides our intro today:

“The fact that Treasuries, munis, and gold are getting hit tells me that everything is for sale right now. One giant margin call where even the safe-havens aren’t safe anymore. Except for cash.”

The  Fed unveiled an unprecedented liquidity facility to rescue malfunction Treasury markets from themselves.. but it failed terribly.

For a few brief moments, as Dow futs exploded 1500 points higher, it looked like it might just work… but no…

Stocks puked into the close! Look at Small Caps!!! The Dow was down 10%! This was utter carnage today…

This was the biggest daily drop since 1987

As one veteran trader said:

“this is the market telling The Fed it has to buy stocks.”

Investors are at the most-extreme fear level on record…

And as far as The Fed ‘solving’ the liquidity or dollar shortage issues… it utterly failed!

Source: Bloomberg

Trannies and Small Caps are now underwater since Trump was elected…

Source: Bloomberg

The ongoing liquidation of one or many risk-parity funds, as we noted earlier…

…appears to be continuing with bonds and stocks both getting dumped as the funds are delevered.

Source: Bloomberg

And the bond-stock correlation has collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P remains above the Dec 2018 lows for now, buit blew through the 200-week average that been notable support…

Source: Bloomberg

Europe was a bloodbath:

  • STOXX EUROPE 600 EXTENDS DROP, WORST DAILY LOSS EVER
  • STOXX 600 BANKS INDEX AT RECORD LOW
  • FTSE 100 INDEX DROPS AS MUCH AS 11%, MOST SINCE 1987 CRASH
  • FTSE 100 HITS 12-YEAR LOWS

Source: Bloomberg

Virus-related stocks crashed… again…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks were blitzed…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX exploded higher – to its highest close since Oct 22, 2008…but this time the velocity is far faster

The VIX term structure is almost as inverted as it was at the peak of the Lehman crisis…

HY Credit was hammered…

Source: Bloomberg

HY Energy credit markets are getting destroyed…

Source: Bloomberg

Investment grade credit is also really ugly – not just the level but the velocity is unprecedented…

Source: Bloomberg

The chaos in Treasury markets – which The Fed hoped to fix with its $4 trillion bazooka – remain as liquidity evaporated again and yields soared into the close, despite equity ugliness…

Source: Bloomberg

A mixed picture across the term structure today with the short-end bid and the long-end dumped (3Y -6bps, 30Y +8bbps)…

And once again, yields were puked higher after the 1430 margin call…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar accelerated higher again today as everything else was sold to grab cash (but did drop on The Fed’s actions)…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal across the board…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin puked to below $6000 intraday, blowing through all it skey technicals…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all smashed today…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hit hard today, plunging over 5% and trading as low as $30.02 intraday…

Gold was smashed lower today on massive volume as it seems the “liquidate eveything” plan is in play…

Finally,  it is notable that this is the first systemic crisis since the European collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

And in case you thought the ‘fortress balance sheet’ banks were going to save the world… the world’s most systemically important banks crashed to record lows today…

Source: Bloomberg

The deer are back!

And if none of that worries you – this might. USA’s sovereign credit risk is rising notably…

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

S&P Extends Losses After Re-Opening, Down 8.5%; Europe Crashes By Most Ever

Update (0950ET): US Cash markets have reopened after the 15min halt and S&P is extending losses notably…

Meanwhile, in Europe, the Stoxx 600 just crashed 10%! Its biggest daily drop ever…

And all individual European markets are down at least 9%…

This is the largest slide for the DAX since October 1989 and the biggest weekly drop for the Ibex 35 ever, on an intraday basis

It is unclear if this move is more about Christine Lagarde’s apparent disappointment or spillover from the US collapse.

*  *  *

It’s a Monday morning replay. S&P cash markets have opened down 6.7%, bounced a little, before tumbling back down to a 7% loss, triggering the first system-wide circuit-breaker, causing markets to halt trading for 15 minutes.

 

Where are the circuit-breakers:

During US trading hours (Cash)

  • Level 1: 7% fall to 2549.48 before 15:25EDT/19:25GMT will prompt a 15-minute pause.
  • Level 2: 13% drop to 2385.00 before said time will introduce another 15-minute pause.
  • Level 3: 20% decline to 2193.10 within the time will shut the markets

NOTE: Only the 20% rule applies to the final 35 minutes of trading.

During US trading hours (Futures)

  • Level 1: 7% fall to 2546.50
  • Level 2: 13% drop to 2382.00
  • Level 3: 20% decline to 2190.00
    END

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Gold, Stocks, Bonds, & Oil Explode Higher After Fed Fires Bazooka

The unleashes a cumulative $4 trillion repo bailout for banks and shadow banks… and everything gets a lift…

Stocks surged….

Gold spiked…

Let’s see if this lasts?

end

then: late this afternoon: stocks plunge despite a $4 trillion QE 4????

Bazooka Backfires: Stocks Tumble, FRA/OIS Soars After Fed’s Massive Repo Operation Fails To Fix Liquidity Crisis

Maybe the Fed’s repo bazooka was just a water pistol?

Less than an hour after the Fed announced a massive expansion to its repo facilities, adding one $500 billion 3-month repo today, following by an identical repo tomorrow and subsequent weekly $500BN repos (in addition to officially expanding NOT QE to a coupon monetizing QE-5), many are asking if the Fed applied the wrong medicine for two reasons:

The first, and obvious one, is that you can’t fix a viral pandemic with monetary easing… but let’s pretend that’s not an issue for now.

The less obvious, bust just as important reason is that after the Fed announced the results of the first half a trillion dollar repo today, the uptake was a tiny 15.7%.

 

Indeed, as shown below, dealers only submitted $78.4 billion in securities for today’s massively upsized 3-month repo operation...

… which it appears will not be the panacea the Fed may have expected it to be.

As a result, even though today’s total liquidity injection between the two term and one overnight repos earlier, and the 3 month megarepo just now, the Fed has injected a total of $276.5 billion in liquidity, and yet stocks have tumbled back to session lows…

… as traders realize that what is ailing the market is not access to the Fed’s balance sheet, but an overall recession that will collapse revenues, profits and cash flow, and which the Fed’s liquidity injections are powerless to prevent.

But wait, there’s more: because as stocks sold off, a far more ominous development is that judging by the surge in the FRA/OIS, a closely followed indicator of interbank funding, following the Fed’s repo operation the liquidity shortage had nothing to do with extra repo access, and is about to get much worse especially with the Fed having already fired its bazooka.

In other words the Fed tried to fix whatever is causing the structural problem at the heart of the market’s illiquidity, and has so far failed, which means that absent another emergency bailout attempt, we may very soon have a market – and bank – holiday.

Finally, for those asking just what kind of bailout attempt, recall that recently both Eric Rosengren and Janet Yellen said the Fed will have to buy stocks during the next crisis. Well, this is a crisis, and the market collapse will not relent until Powell finally turns Japanese and starts monetizing single names and/or ETFs.

END

THEN: LATE THIS AFTERNOON!!!

Bazooka Fired: Fed Unleashes $1.5 Trillion Repo Bailout, Expands “Not QE” To QE5

After increases in its repo facility twice already this week, from $100billion to $150billion to $175billion per day, and adding added a new 1-month term repo facility, the New York Fed just stunned the market and fired its biggest bazooka since Lehman (not coincidentally, just moments before today’s 30Y Treasury auction, as a failed auction would mean, well, game over), by announcing a total of $1 trillion in 3-month repos over two days ($500BN today, $500BN tomorrow), as well as an additional $500BN in one-month repos offered weekly, which means up to $3 trillion in cumulative repos (if fully allotted) may be online by the end of the month. 

But wait, there’s more, because the fed also finally threw in the towel on the semantics bullshit it was pulling since Sept 2019 by pretending that “QE” is “NOT QE”, when it officially expanded not-QE/QE4 to Q5, when it announced it would start purchasing coupon Treasuries as part of its POMO operations, which as a reminder, was the official trigger transforming Not QE into QE .

For some context of how that compares to what they have been doing, assuming full allotment on the 2 $500BN repos…

Full Statement by NYFed:

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released a new monthly schedule of Treasury securities operations and has updated the current monthly schedule of repurchase agreement (repo) operations.  Pursuant to instruction from the Chair in consultation with the FOMC, adjustments have been made to these schedules to address temporary disruptions in Treasury financing markets.  The Treasury securities operation schedule includes a change in the maturity composition of purchases to support functioning in the market for U.S. Treasury securities.  Term repo operations in large size have been added to enhance functioning of secured U.S. dollar funding markets.

  • As a part of its $60 billion reserve management purchases for the monthly period beginning March 13, 2020 and continuing through April 13, 2020, the Desk will conduct purchases across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.  Specifically, the Desk plans to distribute reserve management purchases across eleven sectors, including nominal coupons, bills, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, and Floating Rate Notes. The distribution of purchases across sectors will be the same distribution as the Desk uses to reinvest principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in Treasury securities.  The first such purchases will begin tomorrow, March 13, 2020.
  • Today, March 12, 2020, the Desk will offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation at 1:30 pm ET that will settle on March 13, 2020. 
  • Tomorrow, the Desk will further offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation and $500 billion in a one-month repo operation for same day settlement. 
  • Three-month and one-month repo operations for $500 billion will be offered on a weekly basis for the remainder of the monthly schedule.
  • The Desk will continue to offer at least $175 billion in daily overnight repo operations and at least $45 billion in two-week term repo operations twice per week over this period.

These changes are being made to address highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak. Reserve management purchases into the second quarter will continue to be conducted with this maturity allocation. The terms of operations will be adjusted as needed to foster smooth Treasury market functioning and efficient and effective policy implementation.

Finally, for those looking forward to the official return of QE, i.e., the monetization of coupons in addition to Bills, here is the Fed’s full monetization schedule.

Some parting thoughts following this historic announcement: this was by far the biggest bazooka the Fed has fired since the financial crisis, and… it may not be enough. In fact, stocks are still deep in the red, which means one of two things:

  1. i) The Fed’s credibility is now shattered
  2. The market expects a fiscal bailout, or some MMT-esque combination of both.

Until and unless the markets gets what it needs, the Fed is now a sideshow and in fact, if this bazooka fails, Powell may consider submitting his resignation this week.

END

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Jim Cramer on a rant as he claims the government is ill informed on the how serious this is

(Jim Cramer/zerohedge)

“They Know Nothing” (Again): Jim Cramer Calls For Government To Suspend Taxes, Print Way Out Of COVID-19

Jim Cramer on Thursday called for the federal government to immediately print $500 billion to address the coronavirus outbreak, and suspend all taxation during the crisis.

Everyone owes the government at all time. Everyone in this country, individuals, corporations. That has to be suspend right now so they have more money,” he said.

Are these radical actions? You bet they are,” Cramer added. “This is the time for radical action and the action can be done by the federal government.

“They know nothing,” the CNBC host began to rant, referring to the government’s response to the crisis, ” there are no signs anyone in government understands problem.”

“We know more than they do, and that’s not acceptable either,” he added.

Cramer also recommended that companies tap their credit revolvers and that there should be no stigma attached to it when they do so.

His comments come on the heels of President Trump’s prime-time Wednesday address in which he announced that travel would be suspended to most of Europe for 30 days in an attempt to slow the spread of coronavirus. He said he will also ask Congress to provide payroll tax relief for Americans – and would instruct the Small Business Administration to “provide capital and liquidity” to small businesses.

Cramer’s Thursday comments were reminiscent of his infamous “They know nothing!” rant in 2007.

‘They have no Idea how bad it is out there… NO IDEA. They know NOTHING!’

Of course in 2008: ‘Bear Stearns is fine

Investor Peter Schiff disagrees with Cramer, big time:

The feeling was largely mutual across Twitter, though some agree:

end

end

Carnival halts its global cruise operations for 60 days.  it will probably be out for longer

(zerohedge)

Carnival Halts Global Cruise Operations For 60 Days

Shares of Carnival Corp. plunged by more than 20% on Thursday morning after it announced its Princess Cruises Line would halt operations for 60 days amid the Covid-19 outbreak.

This comes after all confirmed cases of the new coronavirus aboard cruise ships have been on Princess vessels. The Diamond Princes has been docked in Yokohama, Japan, with at least 700 confirmed cases. The Grand Princess docked Monday in Oakland, California, has about 21 confirmed cases.

Dan Linden

@DanLinden

Princess Cruises announces it will “voluntarily pause global operations of its 18 cruise ships for two months (60 days), impacting voyages departing March 12 to May 10.” https://abcn.ws/2TZxhxd

In proactive response to the unpredictable circumstances evolving from the global spread of COVID-19 and in an abundance of caution, Princess Cruises announced that it will voluntarily pause global operations of its 18 cruise ships for two months (60 days), impacting voyages departing March 12 to May 10.

“Princess Cruises is a global vacation company that serves more than 50,000 guests daily from 70 countries as part of our diverse business, and it is widely known that we have been managing the implications of COVID-19 on two continents,” said Jan Swartz, president of Princess Cruises.

“By taking this bold action of voluntarily pausing the operations of our ships, it is our intention to reassure our loyal guests, team members and global stakeholders of our commitment to the health, safety and well-being of all who sail with us, as well as those who do business with us, and the countries and communities we visit around the world,” added Swartz.

While this is a difficult business decision, we firmly believe it is the right one and is in alignment with our company’s core values. Rest assured the long-serving and dedicated professionals at with our company’s core values. Rest assured the long-serving and dedicated professionals at our company will make best use of this time to prepare Princess Cruises’ fleet of cruise ships for a successful return.

Those currently onboard a cruise that will end in the next five days will continue to sail as expected through the end of the itinerary so that onward travel arrangements are not disrupted. Current voyages that are underway and extend beyond March 17 will be ended at the most convenient location for guests, factoring in operational requirements. Princess will do everything possible to return each guest home with the greatest amount of care possible. During this time, our operations and medical teams across the fleet will remain vigilant in their care and service for guests and crew onboard.

For those who are impacted by this business decision, Princess is offering guests the opportunity to transfer 100% of the money paid for their cancelled cruise to a future cruise of their choice. To add a bonus incentive for guests to accept this offer, the company will add an additional generous future cruise credit benefit which can be applied to the cruise fare or onboard expenses. In addition, Princess will honor this offer for those guests who had made final payment and cancelled their booking on or after February 4, 2020. The future cruise credit can be used on any voyage departing through May 1, 2022.

We wonder how many will actually transfer the credit or demand their money back? Is the cruise industry as we know it about to die?

 end
This morning;
The Fed injects a whopping $198 billion to the criminal operations of the bankers/hedge funds trying to unfreeze paralyzed funding markets’
(zerohedge)

Fed Injects $198 Billion Via Repos To Unfreeze Paralyzed Funding Markets

Update: shortly after the Fed injected $95BN in liquidity via two term reports (a 2-week and the first 1-month op), it also announced $103.1BN injected via the overnight operation, which means that the Fed has injected a combined $198BN in liquidity as funding markets freeze.

* * *

Forget equities: the far more important funding markets are locking up.

Between today’s surge in FRA/OIS which briefly rose to the highest level since the financial crisis, confirming the biggest dollar funding shortage in the interbank market in over a decade…

… to the explosion in the 3-month EUR cross-currency basis is 36 basis points wider, the largest move since 2008 on a closing basis which send the global basis swap crashing…

… the Fed has found itself woefully behind the curve. As a result, moments ago, the Fed announced that it has injected the maximum possible liquidity via today’s 2 term repos, including the just announced 1-month, $50bn term repo, for a total of $45BN + $50BN.

The bank also lowered the minimum bid rate on the 2-week term repo to 0.23% from 0.59% at the original announcement.

As has been the case in the past week, both term repos were oversubscribed, with the 2-week term 1.9x oversubscribed while the 1 month was 1.7x.

Unfortunately, these operations do nothing to fix the funding squeeze and the Fed is now dangerously behind the curve meaning Powell will need to unleash a far more aggressive liquidity injection if he wants to unfreeze the funding markets which appear to be locking up by the hour.

end

THIS AFTERNOON/2nd  Repo Announcement

boy did this escalate fast: We are now at QE4 as the Fed is to conduct a 4 trillion dollar repo over the next two days.

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Last night Trump announced: The US will suspend all travel from Europe, ex-the UK, for the next 30 days with exemptions on a case by case basis; health insurance companies will waive deductibles for coronavirus treatments; a recommendation that nursing homes suspend all unnecessary visits; a proposed $50B more for the Small Business Administration to provide for low-cost loans; a proposed payroll tax cut; and he would use emergency authority to allow some individuals to defer tax payments, which he estimated would provide $200B in funds.

Trump said the greatest threat is to older Americans. “For all Americans, it is essential that everyone take extra precautions and practice good hygiene.

ESHs traded +26.75 sixteen minutes after they opened last night on hope that Trump’s Covid-19 plan would allay the panic.  ESHs turned negative at 19:47 ET.  At 22:05 ET, ESHs hits -128.00 for these reasons: Actor Tom Hanks reported that he and his wife have the virus.  The NBA suspended its season because the Utah Jazz’s Rudy Gobert has Covid-19.  The NHL is considering a suspension of its season and MLB may delay the start of its season.  Mostly importantly, Trump said, “And these prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo. But various other things as we get approval, anything coming from Europe to the United States.”  A global recession is guaranteed.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/trump-suspends-travel-from-europe-over-coronavirus-fears/

ESHs rallied 30.00 after Trump tweeted: Hoping to get the payroll tax cut approved by both Republicans and Democrats, and please remember, very important for all countries & businesses to know that trade will in no way be affected by the 30-day restriction on travel from Europe. The restriction stops people not goods.  The rally on DJT’s back-tracking on cargo ended in 12 minutes.  There are bigger problems.

The credit market problems are more dangerous than Covid-19 – and they have a longer shelf life.  The odds are extremely high that global recession has arrived.  The economic ebbing due to Covid-19 should pass at some point in the summer.  There could be a quick, sharp rebound in impacted industries.  However, the credit markets indicate that a more serious economic decline will occur in later.

The Fed’s overnight repo scheme on Wednesday was a record $132.375B.  This induced the Fed to increase the limit on its O/N repo scheme $25B to $175B.  The funding crisis that first appeared in September 2019 is intensifying even though the Fed has conducted record repos and T-Bill QE.  Obviously, there is something very troubling in ‘the system’.

The NY Fed: Beginning Thursday, March 12, 2020 and continuing through Monday, April 13, 2020, the Desk will offer at least $175 billion in daily overnight repo operations and at least $45 billion in two-week term repo operations twice per week over this period…

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_200311

\

McCarthy thinks coronavirus could have been contained had China taken U.S. help

Top House Republican ‘frustrated’ by Chinese Communist Party saying Americans created v

    “If President Xi would have allowed what President Trump asked for – to let in our scientists, our doctors, our researchers – at the very beginning in January, we probably could have contained this in China,” the House minority leader told us. “Their denial has made this spread quite further.”…

     Democrats, who control the House, have signaled their opposition to a payroll tax cut, saying it will help corporations more than employees…

https://justthenews.com/government/congress/kevin-mccarthy-wont-apologize-calling-covid-19-chinese-coronavirus#.Xmk5kEKiZqs.twitter

@CBSNews: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo: “4,000 deaths [globally] are terrible, yes. No doubt. How many people in the U.S. died from the flu last year? Roughly 80,000 — so, again, perspective” https://cbsn.ws/38GA8Rg

The contrived panic over Covid-19 is the projectile that has burst the easy credit bubble and corresponding bubbles, mainly equities.  It is renewing fright over Italian and European banks.  PS – The burst of the Mother of All Bubbles, bonds, is still far ahead of us.

@Schuldensuehner: Deutsche Bank shares lower on deteriorating financing conditions. Germany’s leading lender announced today that it will not exercise the option to redeem its US$1.25bn 6.25% bond at its first call date on Apr30, suggesting Deutsche not be able to refinance it on similar terms.

BOE Cuts Rates in Coordination with Treasury Virus Response

The Bank of England unveiled stimulus including its first emergency interest-rate cut since the financial crisis… Policy makers delivered a half-point reduction to take their key rate to 0.25%… U.K. stocks rose after the decision [This was the high for the session.  The FTSE sank, closing -1.59% for the day.]

The BoE emergency 50 bp rate cut, like the Fed’s emergency 50 bp rate cut, was a failure, an egregious waste of the sparse remaining ammo.

The Fed Can’t Let Bond Yields Fall to Zero by ex-Dallas Fed analyst Danielle Di Martino-Booth

Treasuries play a critical role in providing ample liquidity to the global financial system because they are a manifestation of the dollar’s reserve currency status…The Treasury market is also the primary vehicle through which the Fed transmits monetary policy.

    But if yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes go to zero — a no longer ludicrous suggestion after Russia walked out of the OPEC+ meeting without a deal — then all of those key roles get upended. Especially hard hit will be banks, insurers and pension systems worldwide…

      If the gap between short- and long-term rates evaporates, lending would come to a standstill, especially if this were to happen with nominal yields falling to zero…The need for potential bailouts of pensions would become a very real prospect for federal authorities…

    It’s time for Fed officials to conceive a plan to combat nominal Treasury yields from falling so low that they threaten the global financial system…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-cant-let-bond-yields-160021905.html

@DiMartinoBooth: Banking system will implode if this happensThink of life w/no mortgages, no car loans. That’s what it means if there’s NO curve to speak of. This is what happens when CBs go too far

US equities opened sharply lower due to the overnight plunge in ESHs – even though ESHs rallied 47 handles from 9:00 ET until 4 minutes after the NYSE open.  The regular rally to game the NYSE open failed spectacularly.  ESHs and stocks retreated until the post-European close contra-move appeared.

This rally ended at 12:19 ET; ESHs and equities tumbled to new session lows by the early afternoon.

At this point, it was very concerning that the BoE rally, the pre-NYSE rally and the post-European close rally failed and ESHs plunged to new lows after each initiative.  This implies that traders were constantly overwhelmed by organic buyers.  In other words, conditioned dip buyers were getting caned regularly.

When the final hour of trading arrived, the S&P 500 Index was down 20.1% from its all-time high.  This is the fastest bear market to occur in history (from peak to 20% decline).  Nick pickers advocate measuring from all-time high close to -20% close.  A late upward manipulation truncated equity losses.  The DJIA closed more than 20% below its record closing high.

The late rebound occurred after Trump tweeted: I am fully prepared to use the full power of the Federal Government to deal with our current challenge of the CoronaVirus!  Soon thereafter, Trump said he would announce Covid-19 measures at 21:00 ET.

WSJ: The 30 Minutes That Can Make or Break the Trading Day – Late-day moves in the stock market have been a staple, creating swoons—and surges—right before the closing bell [It’s manipulation!]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-30-minutes-that-can-make-or-break-the-trading-day-11583886131

Economist Alan Blinder says the US is probably already in recession

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/economist-alan-blinder-says-the-us-is-probably-already-in-recession.html

Bloomberg @business: Donald Trump’s advisers are recommending that the U.S. raise its travel alert to Level 3 for the entire European Union, a move that would mean Americans should avoid everything but essential travel to the 27-nation bloc

GOP House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy @GOPLeader: Democrats are trying to keep President Trump—or any future president—from being able to swiftly issue travel restrictions in the face of health threats like coronavirus.  And the worst part is they’re trying to sneak it into a totally unrelated bill, just to restrict debate.

The Democrat-led bill, which the House is expected to vote on this week, aims to rein in the president’s ability to restrict foreign nationals from entering the U.S. It would also limit the administration from enacting similar bans in the future…

https://www.oann.com/republican-lawmakers-urge-house-speaker-pelosi-to-pull-travel-ban-bill-amid-coronavirus-concerns/

Up to 150 million Americans are expected to contract the coronavirus, congressional doctor says

Dr. Brian Monahan [Made rear admiral by Obama], the attending physician of Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court, said he expects 70 million to 150 million people in the United States will become infected with COVID-19, NBC News reported Wednesday, citing two sources…

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-150-million-americans-are-expected-to-contract-the-coronavirus-congressional-doctor-says.html

Politically, 2020 rhymes with 1984.  Presidents that initially beat the Establishment faced re-election against former Vice Presidents that were very flawed, very trite, Establishment heroes and devoid of a meaningful agenda.  Both the MSM hated both presidents.  The Establishment and MSM thought the only reason for the presidents’ success was a booming stock market.

Ergo, if stocks and the economy would recede, the despised presidents could be defeated in their reelection attempts.  In 1984, Mario Cuomo told Larry King that he didn’t run for the presidency because he feared a depression was at hand.  We recall an economist that we deemed to be very prescient warning that he is renting an apartment because a depression could appear.  Continental Bank, the 9th largest bank in the world at the time, failed.  The Fed did and unheard of at the time $3.5B bailout for the Chicago bank.  The first S&L crises appeared – in Ohio and Maryland.  New Jersey muni dealer Bevill, Bresler & Schulman’s failure almost took down Chase Manhattan.  The S&P 500 Index tumbled 14.5% from its October 10, 1983 high to July 25, 1984 (peak of campaign, conventions).  The US 30-year bond yield, which fell sharply from Feb 1982 until May 1983, rebounded to 14%.  The MSM and Dems painted Reagan as old, bumbling and confused.  The MSM gleefully proclaimed the end of ‘Reaganism’.

The GOP Establishment begged Reagan to tone down his rhetoric and act more presidential.  Reagan’s handlers advised Old Dutch to be more docile during the first debate with Mondale.  It was a disaster.  In the second debate, Reagan rebelled against the GOP Establishment and hit advisors’ advice.  When asked about age being a factor in the campaign, Reagan retorted that ‘he would not make the relative youth and inexperience of his opponent an issue’.  The audience, and even Mondale, laughed.  Old Dutch was back.

Reagan won 49 of 50 states.  Mondale barely won his home state of Minnesota to avoid the shutout.  PS – There was no Internet in 1984 to counter MSM propaganda.

@realDonaldTrump 18:05 ET: The Media should view this as a time of unity and strength. We have a common enemy, actually, an enemy of the World, the CoronaVirus. We must beat it as quickly and safely as possible. There is nothing more important to me than the life & safety of the United States!

@DailyCaller: CNN’s Jim Acosta asks President @realDonaldTrump “what do you say to Americans who say you are not taking this seriously enough and that some of your statements don’t match what your health experts are sayin?”  Trump: “That’s CNN. Fake news.”

Washington, DC declares state of emergency over coronavirus   http://hill.cm/mW5TTMm

Kevin McCarthy @GOPLeader: With no legislative text yet to read, I hope Speaker Pelosi doesn’t abuse this moment for business as usual. Any proposal to address the economic and health concerns of coronavirus must be targeted towards the real issues—not be used as an excuse to sneak in a partisan agenda. [@lawyer4laws: Pelosi still hasn’t produced legislation for Congress members to read on economic and health concerns of Coronavirus.]

@GOPChairwoman: Getting a coronavirus vaccine into Phase 1 of testing has occurred the fastest “that anyone has ever done literally in the history of vaccinology.” – Dr. Anthony Fauci, NIH

Solomon: FBI’s Russia collusion case fell apart in first month of Trump presidency, memos show

Flynn collusion ruled out, Steele dossier debunked in January 2017, more than two years before Mueller announced it.

    That means a nascent presidency and an entire nation were put through two more years of lacerating debate over an issue that was mostly resolved in January 2017 inside the bureau’s own evidence files. The proof is now sitting in plain view…

      Congressional investigators are now looking at whether Comey’s approach to Trump at a Feb. 14, 2017 dinner at the White House may have been part of an effort to pivot away from the bogus Russia collusion investigation and lay a predicate for a new investigation focused on possible obstruction of justice. Those same investigators also are inquiring as to why Mueller’s final report did not more clearly spell out how the FBI’s collusion case fell apart in January 2017….

https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/fbis-russia-collusion-case-fell-apart-first-month-trump-presidency

Sanders to press on with campaign despite primary losses to Biden, vows to defeat Trump

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sanders-campaign-biden

Bernie is continuing his campaign for two very good reasons: 1) He can continue to grift for donations; and 2) Biden’s condition could force Joe to end his campaign at any instance.

Laura Ingraham @IngrahamAngle: The Biden campaign cannot risk this happening again. Only way to guarantee this: halt this type of campaigning.  Too dangerous to public (and his political?) health.   It’s so obvious. This health crisis will be the justification many cite to stop campaigning altogether—no rallies, no townhalls, no debates.  No more interaction with regular Americans. Thoughts

Well that is all for today

I will see you tomorrow

h

One comment

  1. Hans Pronk · · Reply

    Glad you’re back!

    Like

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