MARCH 13 A//CAPITULATION DAY AS THE CROOKS ORCHESTRATE ANOTHER RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS//GOLD DOWN $73.60 TO $1517.60//SILVER DOWN $1.15 TO $14.48//TRUMP DECLARES A NATIONAL EMERGENCY WHICH WILL ALLOW 50 BILLION USA FUNDING FOR THE CORONAVIRUS//CANADA CUTS ITS RATE BY 1/2 POINT TODAY IN AN EMERGENCY MEETING//SILVER EAGLES OUT OF STOCK//BIDDING 4 DOLLARS ABOVE SPOT//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE FOR ITALY AND SPAIN (DISASTER)//IRAN IS TOTALLY BUST AS THEY ASK THE IMF FOR A 5 BILLION DOLLAR LOAN//FED ORCHESTRATES QE5 AND Q6 READY TO PROVIDE 4 TRILLION DOLLARS IN LIQUIDITY//STOCK MARKET DOW RISES 1980 POINTS/NASDAQ RISES 672. POINTS BUT IT DOES NOT FIX THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM OF LACK OF DOLLAR LIQUIDITY AROUND THE GLOBE//

GOLD:$1517.60  DOWN $73.60

 

 

Silver:$14.48//DOWN 155 CENTS

 

(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

from Dave Kranzler

 

shades of 2008

 

physical silver is now quoted at spot plus 4 dollars and supplies are next to nothing.

Dave from Denver…

“silver eagles are being sold at the big internet dealers for spot +$4 now. The Denver Craigslist only has “silver eagles wanted” listings. Usually there’s as many as you want for sale. I have not seen that on Craigslist. since 2008.”

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold : $1530.00

 

SILVER:  $15.65

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 8/114

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 03/12/2020 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 03/12/2020
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 22:47:51
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,589.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/12/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 03/16/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 21
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 27
661 C JP MORGAN 8
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 8 14
800 C MAREX SPEC 9
880 C CITIGROUP 106
905 C ADM 34
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 114 114
MONTH TO DATE: 1,682

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 114 NOTICE(S) FOR 11400 OZ (0.3545 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1682 NOTICES FOR 168200 OZ  (5.2317 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

 

 

7 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 55,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3668 for 18,340,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $5470 UP $598 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$5130 UP $600

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

 

GLD: 944.18 TONNES OF GOLD//A BIG  CHANGE: DOWN 9.02 TONNES

 

SLV: 356.935 MILLION OZ.//LOSS OF 2.893 MILLION OZ//

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2408 CONTRACTS FROM 183,240 DOWN TO 180,832 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 744,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 77 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  AS ALL OF THE LOSS IN OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES  (SEE BELOW)

 

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 8591 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  8591 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1543 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 8591 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.715 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 77 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

21.01  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAR

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 77 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  TOTALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE NET GAIN OF 6183 CONTRACTS OR 30.915 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES!

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

27,774 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 27,774 CONTRACTS) OR 138.870 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2777 CONTRACTS OR 13.885 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 138.87 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.47% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          580.08 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S SO FAR…..          138.87 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2408,  WITH THE  77 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /THURSDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 8591 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS :  5431 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (DESPITE THE 77 CENT FALL IN PRICE)//

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 8591 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2408 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  77 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.03 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9040 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 129% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR  20,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 21.01 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS 33,258 CONTRACTS TO 600,319 AND MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE HUGE LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $55.05 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE,  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING AN ATMOSPHERIC  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED AND YET THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT STRONG FALL IN PRICE.  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE FALL IN PRICE, WE GAINED A STRONG 5211 CONTRACTS  (16.21 TONNES)

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 38,469 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 36,023. MAY: 300, AND JUNE. 2146 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 38,469.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 596,340. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5211 CONTRACTS: 33,258 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 38,469 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5211 CONTRACTS OR 16.21 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF $55.05 IN GOLD TRADING.…..

AND WITH THAT HUMONGOUS LOSS IN  PRICE, SURPRISINGLY WE STILL HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 16.21  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (LOSS $55.05). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  ANY  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

SEE BELOW:

 WE HAD  A HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (38,469) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI.(33,258 OI):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5211 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION…..COUPLED WITH THAT HUGE COMEX OI FALL

 

 

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE APRIL.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 180,250 CONTRACTS OR 18,025,000 oz OR 560.65 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 18,025 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 560.65 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 560.65/3550 x 100% TONNES =15.79% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   1784,62  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR   560.65  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2408 CONTRACTS FROM 183.240 DOWN TO 180,832 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND THE ISSUANCE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW) WITH ZERO AMOUNT OF LONG LIQUIDATION

 

EFP ISSUANCE 8591

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 8591; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8591 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2408 CONTRACTS TO THE 8591 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 6183 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  30.915 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 21.01 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 16 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8591 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. THE ENTIRE LOSS OF COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR PHYSICALS.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.06 POINTS OR 1.23%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 276.16 POINTS OR 1.14%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 1128.58 POINTS OR 6.08%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 4092%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9857 /Oil UP TO 33.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 35.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9857 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9996 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

South Koreans play with a derivative called an autocallable which is basically insurance of the stock market.  The underwriters of these will no doubt unleash a neutron bomb across all global stock markets

(zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

CHINA

China faces an interest rate dilemma as food costs are rising.  This should force the government to raise rates but they cannot due to the coronavirus problem

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY

Italy bans short sales and they blame Lagarde for the stock market plungE yesterday
(zerohedge)

ii)ITALY

A good look at Italy today where Italian families are stuck inside their homes with dead bodies (spouses) as the nationwide lockdown begins
(zerohedge)

iii)FLORENCE  ITALY

The mayor of Florence now wishes he did not encourage

(zerohedge)

iv)GERMANY

The reason for the USA stock market rise is due to German Fin Min stating they Germany will spend billions to cushion the economy

spend on what?

(zerohedge)

v)SPAIN//CORONAVIRUS

Spain did not act quick enough to cancel the Women’s day march held last week.  Today we learn that because of that march we had a huge surge in infections

(zerohedge)

vi)SPAIN/REUTERS

IT IS NOW GETTING REALLY BAD IN SPAIN AS THE PRIME MINISTER STATES THAT IT EXPECTS 10,000 CORONAVIRUS CASES BY NEXT WEEK

(ZEROHEDGE)

vii)GREECE/TURKEY

Do you blame the Greeks? They are desperately denying entry of refugees into their country

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

I)IRAN/THE WEST

As Iran gets wiped out due to the pandemic, hawks fear the worst that Iran will try to make a nuclear bomb

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN/IMF/CORONAVIRUS

This is the clearest definition of “chutzpah”  Despite their continual support of terrorism across the middle east and elsewhere, Iran is asking the IMF for a $5 billion dollar emergency loan.  Coronavirus deaths now soar to near 500

(zerohedge)

iii)IRAN/USA//IRAQ

Large Iranian backed militias are in Iraq and last night a large scale USA airstrike against them was underway.  Surprisingly Iran, out of money, pharmaceuticals and food is asking the IMF for a bailout
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

I)Brandon Smith offers his opinion as to why we should panic with their coronavirus pandemic:

(Brandon Smith)

ii)Mac Slavo is right;  the virus will bankrupt more people than it kills.  I believe as does Slavo that they must eliminate the income tax system

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:
(courtesy Mac Slavo

iii)CATERPILLAR/GLOBAL SALES/BELLWETHER STOCK

Bellwether stock caterpillar plunges the most in 3 years as the pandemic paralyzes heavy industries

(zerohedge)

IV) CANADA

Next  up, the Bank of Canada announces a 50 basis rate cut and the Fin Min unveils a 10 billion dollar support program
(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA/CORONAVIRUS

India records its first coronavirus death. For those of you who think that warmer weather will kill the virus guerss again

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Saefong explains why gold is still a safe haven asset

(Saefong///Market Watch)

ii)Hopefully in our lifetime, central banks will restore gold as a currency benchmark

(Eds=Steer/Rickards)

iii)A must read

Alasdair Macleod explains how the coronavirus will bring down Europe and the rest of the globe

(Alasdair Macleod)

iv) j johnson’s commodity report

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

(MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/this morning

this will not help:  the NY Fed announces an emergency QE 6 to buy 33 billion dollars worth of bonds as yields tumble

(zerohedge)

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)JPMorgan’s chief economist Mike Feroli finally admits that the Fed has entered QE4 or QE5 take your pick  They are now buying duration

(zerohedge)

ii)Wow

an official in Ohio states that Ohio already has 100,000 people infected with the coronavirus

(zerohedge)

iii)it is not the repo pool that is the problem despite the $4 trillion of available money given by the Fed yesterday.  It is the lack of dollars in the global system that is the problem…..

…..expect more turmoil
(zerohedge)
iv)Mnuchin states that the uSA will provide liquidity but will it be the right liquidity

(see above)

v)THE  FIRST pomo was hugely oversubscribed as the Fed will do whatever it takes. This will not work as the problem is global dollar shortages and lack of collateral

(zerohedge)

vi)it will not help as the House is set for a vote on a coronavirus spending pkg

(zerohedge)

vii)USA/Brazil

President Bolsonaro tests positive for the virus after dining with Trump on Saturday.Likely this means the US president himself will now be closely monitored and tested, if not already.

developing…

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 33,258CONTRACTS TO 596,340 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS FALL IN OI WAS SET WITH A STRONG LOSS OF $55.05 IN GOLD PRICING //THURSDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC EFP ISSUANCE (38.469 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE HUGELY IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST..DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS  IN PRICE….  BASICALLY LONGS JUST TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND OUR LARGE COMEX OI DECREASE.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 38,469 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 36,023, MAY: 300  JUNE : 2146 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 38,469 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  5211 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 38,469 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON BUT WE LOST A HUGE SIZED 33,258 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS COUPLED WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING.(FOLLOWING THE HUGE COMEX OI DECLINE)

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE DRAMATICALLY //// (IT FELL BY $55.05). THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16.21 TONNES WAS MAINLY DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  5211 CONTRACTS OR 521,100 OZ OR  16.21 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  596,340 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 59.36 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1846 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1867/2200 OR 83.92% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2408 CONTRACTS FROM 183,240 DOWN TO 180,832 (AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 77 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/THURSDAY.  THE LOSS IN OI WAS MITIGATED WITH  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS COUPLED WITH SOME HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.

MAR ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF MAR HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 540 CONTRACTS  WITH A LOSS OF 97 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 105 CONTRACTS ISSUED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 8 CONTRACT OR 40,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARD CONTRACTS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

THE NEXT CONTRACT MONTH OF APRIL SAW A LOSS OF 23 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 518 CONTRACTS. THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 2224 DOWN TO 122,550

 

 

We, today, had  4 notice(s)  for 20,,000, OZ for the MAR, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 553,307 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:

748,766 contracts//

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MARCH/GOLD

MARCH 13

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

6944.616 OZ

 

Delaware

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
114 notice(s)
 11400 OZ
(0.3545 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
10 contracts
(1000 oz)
0.0311 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1682 notices
168,200 OZ
5.2317 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 0  oz

 

ii) Into Delaware 6944.616 oz

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  6944.616  oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil  oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 

i) out of Delaware: 192.710 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into teh dealer account

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of MARCH saw its open interest register 124 contracts for a GAIN of 12 contracts.. Surprisingly we had 66 notices filed on THURSDAY so we gained 78 contracts or an additional 7800 oz will stand on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards.  The bankers are seeking rapidly depleting physical supplies of gold.

 

APRIL HAD  a LOSS of 45,825 contracts DOWN to 288,687 contracts

May saw its ANOTHER gain of 4 contracts to stand at 609.

June saw a GAIN of 16,383 contracts up to 195,317

 

 

We had 114 notices filed today for 11400 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  MAR 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 114 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the March /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1682) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAR. (124 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (114 x 100 oz per contract) equals 169,200 OZ OR 5.2628 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (1682)x 100 oz)  + (124 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (114 x 100 oz )which equals 169,200 oz standing OR 5.2628 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a MAR. delivery month.

We gained 78 contracts or 7800 oz will stand for delivery at the comex.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

331,789.41.3 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020:  10.3200 TONNES

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  50,800.009 MILLION OZ OR 15.800.959  TONNES

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 37.485 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.611 tonnes

MARCH………………………………………………………..              5.2628 TONNES

 

total: 161.18 tonnes

SINCE I LEFT AT THE END OF MARCH, WE HAD NO APPRECIABLE SETTLEMENTS.

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 9 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 25,709 TONNES SETTLED

 

 

IF WE ADD THE 9 DELIVERY MONTHS: 161.18  tonnes

 

Thus:

161.18 tonnes of delivery –

25.709 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

 

=135.2471 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 37.74 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,721,321.265 oz or  53.54 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  331,789.443 oz (or 10.3200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:  508,000.900 oz or 15.800 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,213,320.3  (37.74 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,213512.9  (37.74 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,665,926.914 oz 269.54 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS

 

1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 

 

2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

 

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MARCH 13/2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 597,932.791
oz
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
4
CONTRACT(S)
(20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
534 contracts
 2,670,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3668 contracts

18,340,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

into everybody else:  x 0

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.62% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/323.442 million

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  0   oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia:  597,932.791 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 597,932.791  oz

We had 0 adjustments:

 

total dealer silver:  80.212 million

total dealer + customer silver:  323.442 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the MAR 2020. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR 20,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3668 x 5,000 oz = 18,340,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR.( 538) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 3668 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (538)- number of notices served upon today (4) x 5000 oz equals 21,010,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.

WE GAINED 10 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND

 

 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 154,997 CONTRACTS //extremely high

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 160,209 CONTRACTS..,

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 160,209 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 801 million  OZ  115% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.80% ((MARCH 13/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -5.67% to NAV:   MAR 13/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 2.80%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.34 TRADING 13.51///DISCOUNT 5.76

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonness

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD

FEB 26./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH 13/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 944.18 tonnes

*IN LAST 777 TRADING DAYS: +6.8 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 677 TRADING DAYS;+ 172.93. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY: A STRONG GAIN OF 747000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

FEB 26\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

MARCH 13//2020:  SLV INVENTORY

356.938 MILLION

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 0.68/ and libor 6 month duration 0.74

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .06

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 0.65%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION:0.76

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.11

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Saefong explains why gold is still a safe haven asset

(Saefong///Market Watch)

Why gold’s plunge proves it’s a safe-haven asset

 Section: 

By Myra P. Saefong
MarketWatch.com, New York
Thursday, March 12, 2020

Gold is often seen as a safer bet for investors and today’s plunge in prices, as global stock markets drop, shows that investors have taken refuge in what the precious metal has to offer: cash.

“If gold’s being sold to raise cash in an emergency, which is what appears to be happening now, then it is doing its job as a safe haven,” said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter.

… 

The most-active April gold futures contract fell $52, or 3.2%, to settle at $1,590.30 an ounce on Comex, after trading as low as $1,560.40. It suffered its largest one-day percentage loss since the 4.6% decline seen on Feb. 28, which marked the biggest single-session drop since June 2013. …

Today gold “officially outperformed the S&P 500 over a five-year horizon,” said Ryan Giannotto, director of research at GraniteShares, which offers the GraniteShares Gold Trust.

“The market is simply in turmoil right now,” he told MarketWatch during today’s trading session. “Even with today’s losses, it should not be overlooked that gold is up $40 an ounce year-to-date versus the 22% year-to-date loss in equities.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-golds-plunge-proves-its-a-safe-hav…

END

Hopefully in our lifetime, central banks will restore gold as a currency benchmark

(Eds=Steer/Rickards)

Jim Rickards and Ed Steer: Eventually central banks will restore gold as the currency benchmark

 Section: 

By Ed Steer
Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest
Thursday, March 12, 2020

I had a short e-mail exchange with Jim Rickards on Tuesday. Here it is in its entirety — and posted with his permission.

* * *

Hi, Jim:

What do you read into this, if anything?

“A Shift in the Global Financial Order Is Upon Us” by John Authers, senior editor of Bloomberg News —

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/crash-in-oil-price…

— especially these paragraphs below.

“The Oil Standard era ended in the early 1980s. Markets — and everyone else — had lost faith in the ability of central banks to control inflation. Paul Volcker arrived at the Fed, raised rates more than anyone thought he would dare, provoked a recession, and convinced everyone that central banks could control inflation after all.

… 

“In conjunction with the Reagan/Thatcher approach to economic management, and then the collapse of the Soviet Union and the resurgence of China, that ushered in a quarter century of triumphalism for a new model anchored by broadly trusted central banks.

“That foundered in the financial crisis of 2007-09. Now we have reached a new juncture, where the fear is that central banks cannot control deflation. For the post-crisis decade, the U.S. has managed to stay distinct, thanks in part to the privilege of the world’s reserve currency, and in part to the superior success of its corporate sector. It has done this even as Japan and Western Europe have sunk into negative interest rates while the emerging markets have stagnated. The twin shocks of the epidemic and the oil price now appear to have wounded confidence that the U.S. can stand alone.

“It certainly looks as though the world has at last arrived at a point that it appeared to have reached a decade ago. Some new financial order, to replace Bretton Woods and the system that Volcker built to replace it, is now needed. A decade of monetary expansion has delayed the issue. It is hard to see how it can be delayed much further. It would be wise to brace for disruption to match what was experienced at the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s.”

* * *

Hi, Ed…

I’ve heard the same complaint privately from Ben Bernanke and John Lipsky (former acting managing director of the International Monetary Fund).

The elites agree the system is unstable (or “incoherent,” as Bernanke told me), but they don’t have a good replacement.

The biggest problem is that when you try to benchmark the dollar (Up? Down? Sideways?), there is no benchmark. They’re trying to measure something with no measuring stick. If the dollar is up against the euro and down against the yen at the same time, did it go up or down? That’s the problem.

There is a way to benchmark the dollar and all other currencies so that they can be measured against the benchmark and against each other. It’s called gold (by weight).

And there’s a way to beat deflation and get inflation overnight. FDR did it in 1933 (intentionally) and Nixon did it in 1971 (by accident). It’s called gold.

If the Fed bought gold at $5,000 per ounce and made a two-way market, gold would be $5,000 per ounce. The point is not to enrich gold holders but to get widespread inflation. The world of $5,000 gold is also the world of $150 oil and $75 silver. Every other price goes up at the same time.

So gold can solve the benchmark problem and the inflation problem. But that won’t be tried until things get much worse. Authers anticipates a “new” system but he doesn’t know what it is or how to get there. The answer to both questions is gold.

— Jim

* * *

So the last card that the Fed and the Wall Street banks have left in the deck is the gold/precious metals one. JPMorgan is certainly in a position to play it — and benefit handsomely from it as well. But will they or not is the question — and how bad will things have to get before they’re forced to?
However, they and their cronies haven’t been squirreling away gold and silver for all these years for no reason.

That moment may be in our future, but until that moment arrives, we’re going to be on care and maintenance. During that period they’re going to be swallowing up all the physical precious metals they can, plus their associated equities — and covering every possible short position that they can in the Comex futures market — which is what they’re doing now.

—–

To subscribe to Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest:

https://edsteergoldsilver.com/membership-account/membership-levels/

END

A must read

Alasdair Macleod explains how the coronavirus will bring down Europe and the rest of the globe

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: The journey to monetary gold and silver

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, March 12, 2020

Markets are just beginning to latch on to the economic consequences of the coronavirus. Central banks are slashing interest rates and beginning to throw new money into the mix and governments are increasing deficit spending.

Few analysts have yet to understand the enormous consequences of the coronavirus for missed payments and accumulating current debt, which is rapidly draining liquidity from wholesale money markets. It is increasingly likely that the eurozone’s banking system will require rescuing from insolvency with consequences for the global monetary system.

Concern over the consequences for the $640 trillion over-the-counter notional derivative market, particularly for $26 trillion of foreign exchange swaps, is so far absent.

… 

Continuing on our theme that the fates of the dollar and U.S. Treasury values are closely bound, the extraordinary overvaluation of the bond market will translate into a collapse for both.

This article charts how the collapse of the dollar and financial asset values is likely to progress and concludes that we are witnessing the end of the neo-Keynesian fiat currency fantasy, which will be done and dusted with surprising rapidity.

Only then will sound money, after varying time periods for different nations, return. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-journey-to-mon…

* * *END

iii) Other physical stories:

J Johnson’s commodity/gold and silver  report

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/03/13/the-currencys-push-gives-gold-the-pull/

The Currency’s Push Gives Gold the Pull

Posted March 13th, 2020 at 9:22 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Finally a Friday Folks,

      Gold is trading lower, but definitely not as bad as last night’s starting point with the trade at $1,586.30 down $4 after dipping down to $1,551.00 with the high to beat at $1,594.20. Silver is down 22 cents after yesterday’s “selloff” with the trade at $15.785 after dipping down to $15.300 with the high nearby at $15.890. The US Dollar, after collapsing 5% worth of purchasing power before the Fed came and rescued their friends, has recovered (cough) by doing a 50% retracement and is now valued at 97.760, up 29.6 points with the high right here at 97.810 with the low at 97.335. Of course, all this happened after a week on absolute confusion, before 5am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the S&P and Dow did a lock limit up while we slept. Yahoo! Nothing like a good night sleep, let’s see how many people are awake, to believe this one after we witnessed 2 separate limit downs this week and in the same markets.

      In Venezuela, Gold is now trading at 15,843.17 Bolivar down 547.32 from yesterday’s beating with Silver at 157.653 showing a loss of 8.189 Bolivar. Argentina’s currency now has Gold valued at 99,368.90 Peso’s as the currency push – pulled Gold below the sixth digit to the left with Silver at 988.856 A-Peso’s it too seeing the currency removing its 4th digit as well as losing 50.334 A-Peso’s. The Turkish Lira now has Gold valued at 9,949.10, losing 302.97 in T-Lira value and pushing its price below the fourth digit with Silver at 99.0218 T-Lira, also losing 4.7282 in value and its 3rd digit as well.

      March Silver Deliveries continue to confound with the count now at 540 fully paid for contracts showing a loss of 95 orders either getting receipts or sending those EFP’s to London with yesterday’s trading range between $16.615 and $15.60 with the last trade at $15.87 and with the adjusted closing price at $15.961 where a total Volume of 51 traded. As of this morning we have a trading range for the 27 contracts (the Volume) that already switched hands between $15.765 and $15.405 with the last trade at $15.580. Silver’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 180,080 showing a reduction of 3,297 Overnighters as many believe that only the longs exited and are the only ones causing this as we see things slightly different.

      March Gold’s Deliveries is showing another gain in count with the total now at 127 fully paid for contracts proving an increase from yesterday’s swaps that had a trading range between $1,647.50 and $1,566.40 with the last trade at $1,589.30 increasing the count by 15 contracts during the day where 256 receipts or spreads swapped in or out. Once again, the Comex logic is the challenge that will iron itself out when the last bar under the control of the centrals is removed. Gold’s Overall Open Interest really took a drop with the count now at 600,379 Overnighters proving that 30,130 (possible) Short Obligations left the Comex.

      Gold has turned positive as we end today’s missive with the trade now at $1,593.00 with Silver still being dragged along at $15.810 with the dollar sharply higher at 98.215. Yahoo! We’re saved again! But from what? Monday starts our Triple Witch Week, with the centrals doing their balancing act as the March Currencies all die together bringing in the new quarter’s trade, aka the June contracts, which becomes the primary trading vehicle. Then Treasuries get rolled over or cashed in with the S&P and the rest closing out at the end of the week. Next week might be something to behold for Silver and Gold as we wait for more emergency print (that is called “NOT QE”) to occur again because the investment arena seems to be complaining about liquidity, regardless of how much has been printed already. Have a safe and restful weekend, have a smile on your face and a prayer in your heart, and as always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9882/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9996   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 36062 POINTS OR 1.23%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 276.16 POINTS OR 1.13%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1128.58 POINTS OR 6.08%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.90/Euro FALLS TO 1.1174

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.75/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 33.28 and Brent: 35.13

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.57%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.63% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.57%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.22: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.75

3k Gold at $1588.00 silver at: 15.76   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 250/100 in roubles/dollar) 72.49

3m oil into the 33 dollar handle for WTI and 35 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.75 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9465 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0585 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.57%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.95% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.61%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.2787..DEADLY TO THEM

Lucky Friday The 13th? S&P Futures Limit-Up, Europe Soars Most Since After China Emergency RRR Cut

The stomach-churning market rollercoaster continues, although this time Friday the 13th may prove lucky for crushed  traders.

After collapsing to fresh cycle lows overnight, sliding below 2,400, or down a remarkable 1,000 points in just over three weeks, S&P futures have staged an even more amazing comeback and one day after a historic crash, the Emini is now trading limit up, stuck at 2,582  (or up 5%)…

… with the unhalted SPY (S&P 500 ETF) indicating buying pressure continues.

The underlying S&P500 sank 9.5% Thursday, leaving it 27% from a record set just three weeks ago and ending the longest bull run in history.

What sparked the reversal in sentiment? It is unclear but the buying started just after midnight Eastern time, amid speculation of BOJ intervention across various markets. A key catalyst hit just after 5am ET, when following failed interventions by the ECB and Fed, China’s central bank was the latest to come out with emergency measures when the PBOC announced a targeted RRR cut of 50bp-100bp for banks qualified in “inclusive finance” tests, effective March 16, which will release liquidity of RMB 400bn. An additional 100bp cut will be granted for qualified joint-stock commercial banks, unleashing liquidity of RMB 150bn to the market. This, as Goldman notes, was expected after Premier Li’s comments at the State Council meeting on the need to implement target RRR cuts to lower financing costs for small and individual businesses.

Still, there will likely be some buyer remorse disappointment, as the total of RMB 550bn liquidity injected is less than previous RRR cuts (e.g., RMB 800bn effective January 6). But the pattern of the PBOC cutting RRR after Premier Li’s comments remained in line with historical precedents. Furthermore, as we highlighted yesterdaythe PBOC statement also mentioned the central bank would avoid “flood-like” stimulus, consistent with the article discussing monetary policy in the official newspaper People’s Daily on Monday.

Additionally, in Goldman’s view, the PBOC has been cautious in targeted easing and doing just enough in recent weeks. This is reflected in the February money and credit data where short-term loans to companies jumped on PBOC relending programs while medium and long-term loans lagged. Given the deteriorating ex-China growth and external demand, the PBOC will need to do more to support the economy, although how much will be done remains to be seen. With the targeted cut today, the PBOC is highly unlikely to announce any broad RRR cut by the end of Q1, in our view.

Whether its positive impact sustains or not remains to be seen, but the RRR cut comes after an out-of-meeting cut from Norway and liquidity measures from the Riksbank, while other Asian central banks including those of Korea, India and Japan, moved to soothe markets, with the Bank of Japan on Friday followed an earlier move from the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity, and later offered to buy $1.9 billion of bonds in an unscheduled operation.

Also overnight, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she’s near an agreement with the Trump administration on a bill to mitigate impact from the virus. Fifty million jobs may be lost in the tourism industry globally, the World Travel and Tourism Council estimated. China’s Central Bank said it would pump in $79 billion to bolster the economy.

“It seems that the more severe things become in the short term, the more extreme will be the fiscal and monetary policy response,” Mark Dowding, CIO at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote to investors. “It is very conceivable that the full boost from such measures will only really kick in just as activity rebounds, with pent up demand leading to a turbo-charged recovery in the second half of the year in the wake of an economic contraction in the context of the first half.”

There was indeed more: one day after European stocks plunged the most on record, they have staged a just as historic rebound, with the Stoxx 600 surging 7.3%, or the most since Nov 2008, after the German Finance Minister Scholz said “we will use all means to tackle the coronavirus; will provide tax relief to Co’s including deferrals, tax aid will cost billions. Will, without limit, undertake credit programs” while Germany’s Economy Minister Altmaier said around 500 billion Euros are available.

The surge in Europe was led by the basic resources sector, (SXPP) which surged the most since April 2009, as equity markets bounced after the historic rout. Large cap miners led the rally: Anglo American +13%, BHP +9.9%, Rio Tinto +9%, while base metals climb in London, with copper and aluminum both gaining 2%. At the same time, the Stoxx 600 Travel & Leisure Index reversed early morning gains to drop for the 16th session of 17, missing out on a wider European market rebound, as more countries and cities take measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, including event cancellations and pushing so-called social distancing.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, led by industrials and utilities, after falling in the last session. Most markets in the region were down, with Japan’s Topix Index dropping 5% and South Korea’s Kospi Index falling 3.4%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 4.4%. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 33% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 5%, with Dream Incubator and Danto falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1.2%, with Fujian Furi Electronics and Nanjing Canatal posting the biggest slides.

“The nature of the beast that we have been living with over past two weeks is the inevitable relief bounce, which in turn gets sold,” said Michael Purves, Tallbacken Capital Advisors LLC chief executive officer. “But one of the positive seems to be simply returning to some sort of central-bank policy sort of working.”

So perhaps it is now time for a sustained second bounce… just like in 1929?

Despite Friday’s rebound, global stocks are heading for their worst week since 2008 as investors price in a severely weaker economic outlook due to the coronavirus pandemic. They’re doubting the efficacy of policy responses as cases continue to grow across the world and restrictions on people and businesses crush sentiment.

Investors have been looking to the Fed to fill the stimulus vacuum by supporting the economy and keeping markets functioning. It unleashed a trillion and a half dollars on Thursday, but failed to halt the stock market rout. The Trump administration hasn’t offered a fiscal stimulus package that was able to calm investor nerves.

Meanwhile, yields are surging, with bonds and stocks are completely decoupled in terms of their correlation regime – after bonds puked their guts out overnight, they are now rallying alongside the equity gains…

After dropping as low as 0.31% at the start of the week, the 10Y TSY rose as high as 0.96% overnight, above where the 30Y Treasury was trading on Monday.

European bonds also declined across the board with Germany initially leading on comments from ECB’s Weidman that the country should not be dogmatic about its black zero policy. Curves steepen aggressively in low liquidity as stocks across the region bounce. Italian curves the exception, flattening as ECB’s Visco says that purchases can be concentrated on some ECB jurisdictions. German 2s10s snapped wider about 10bps amid speculation that stocks could gap higher due to a short-selling ban, pressuring core bonds.

The spreading coronavirus and oil-price shock have ushered in the most volatile period in markets since the financial crisis, with investors reacting to increasingly negative news. A number of economists are now warning a downturn could be at hand: a Bloomberg Economics model places the odds of a recession happening over the next year at 52%, the highest since 2009. The wild swings have triggered trading halts during the cash session twice times this week. On multiple occasions, futures also reached the 5% bound on gains or losses stipulated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

“There’s no good news and it’s weighing on the market’s psyche,” said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. “Everybody is waiting for good news, for the government to act, to come out with a big impressive plan – and we just keep waiting. And the longer we wait, the more people are doubting it so it’s adding to the volatility.”

Volatility has been rampant, with the S&P 500 seeing average daily swings of 5.7% over the past five sessions. The index hasn’t seen two back-to-back up days in a month. Measures of share turbulence have also spiked this week, with the Cboe Volatility Index closing above 40 for the fifth straight session.

In FX, commodity currencies including the Australian dollar rallied while haven currency the Japanese yen tumbled

Expected data include the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Jabil is reporting earnings.

Central Bank Action

  • Norges Bank emergency rate cut to 1.0% from 1.50%; decision was unanimous. Ministry of Finance has, at the Norges Bank’s recommendation, elected to cut the countercyclical capital buffer to 1.0% from 2.5%. (Newswires) A decision which resulted in the NOK, which has been under significant pressure recently, strengthening somewhat as the measures are designed to provide support to the financial system. Are scheduled to meet on March 19th . Subsequently, Governor Olsen reiterated they are prepared to cut further if necessary.
  • PBoC are to cut RRR for some banks by 50-100bps under inclusive finance scheme and an additional 100bps for joint-stock banks from March 16th, will unleash CNY 550bln, reports state. Will implement prudent monetary policy and be more flexible & are to keep liquidity reasonably sufficient and not open the credit floodgate.
  • BoJ announces that as of next week, the Bank will provide ample liquidity using market operations with long maturities. Carried out unscheduled outright purchases of JGBs today; note, they also purchased JPY 101.4bln of ETF’s today. Will continue to carry out further outright purchases of JGBs as needed, taking into account market conditions are to increase the number of issues of JGSs offered. Could increase purchases of commercial paper & corporate bonds at their meeting next week, according to sources
  • Riksbank says they are prepared to take further measures and to supply necessary liquidity even between meetings; to take up to SEK 500bln to safeguard credit supply. Additionally, Sweden have lowered their counter-cyclical capital buffer to 0% from 2.5%; corresponds to circa SEK 45bln. Subsequently, Governor Ingves says can undertake currency intervention and rate cuts if we think this is a suitable measure are ready to take further measures if this is needed; all measures in the toolbox are available, can give liquidity support to banks, and can purchases bonds.
  • ECB’s Lane says governing council retains the option of future cuts in the policy rate if warranted, temporary fluctuations in the distribution of purchase flows both across asset classes and across countries in response to the “flight to safety”.
  • CBR says the RUB drop, due to coronavirus and lower oil prices, does pose a significant upside risk for inflation; will accelerate towards the 4% target faster than was expected.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 2.9% to 2,539.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.5% to 299.24
  • MXAP down 1.9% to 137.19
  • MXAPJ down 0.05% to 456.84
  • Nikkei down 6.1% to 17,431.05
  • Topix down 5% to 1,261.70
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 24,032.91
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 2,887.43
  • Sensex up 4.3% to 34,187.97
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 4.4% to 5,539.30
  • Kospi down 3.4% to 1,771.44
  • German 10Y yield rose 9.1 bps to -0.65%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1189
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 57.9 bps to 1.586%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 7.6 bps to 0.59%
  • Brent futures up 3.6% to $34.41/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,583.29
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.47

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will remain in isolation for 14 days after his wife tested positive for coronavirus
  • The RBA pumped A$8.8 billion through its repo operations to help counter spillovers
  • Asian central banks also moved aggressively to counter the market carnage Friday. The Bank of Korea is considering a special meeting to tackle wild swings in the foreign-exchange market, and Japan offered to provide as much as 2.2 trillion yen ($20.8 billion) of liquidity in three different operations
  • Norway’s central bank delivered an emergency half- percentage point cut to its main interest rate as policy makers pump stimulus into the economy a week ahead of a scheduled meeting
  • French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte took a rare swipe at the European Central Bank after its bid to tackle the fallout from the coronavirus failed to calm jittery markets
  • The ECB pledged to smooth the transmission of its monetary policy, signaling it’s ready to rein in widening bond spreads, and stressed it can further reduce interest rates if needed

Asian equity markets initially crashed overnight as the global turmoil persisted amid further coronavirus-related disruptions and following the near-double-digit losses on Wall St where stocks had their worst day since the Black Monday of 1987. Investor sentiment took a hit from all angles including the lack of solid stimulus efforts so far from US and its ban on travel from the EU, while some countries, businesses and sporting events also announced shutdown measures. ASX 200 (+4.4%) was in panic mode at the open and was dragged lower by heavy losses in financials and the commodity-related sectors with gold miners the worst performers as the precious metal proved to be no hiding place for the ongoing bloodbath, although the index then rebounded as stock markets and US futures recovered from lows with some also attributing it to the RBA injecting AUD 8.8bln of funds through repos during the early morning chaos. Nikkei 225 (-6.1%) saw losses of over 1500 points and briefly slipped below the 17k level for the first time since 2016, before momentarily retracing the majority of the declines. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-3.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.2%) conformed to the overnight disarray amid further PBoC liquidity inaction and as China’s industry ministry suggested the global coronavirus epidemic places uncertainty on China’s work resumption, while stock markets in South Korea, India, Indonesia and Philippines all triggered circuit breakers earlier in the session but then recouped most the losses in which India briefly retraced the full 10% slump. Finally, 10yr JGBs failed to benefit from the wide-spread risk aversion and off-schedule BoJ announcement to buy a total of JPY 700bln of JGBs, as prices extended on the prior day’s selling to test the 153.00 level where support eventually held.

Top Asian News

  • Singapore’s Elections Near With Release of Boundaries Report
  • Hong Kong Stocks Enter Their Second Bear Market in Two Years
  • Japan’s Top Brass Look to Calm Markets as BOJ Pumps Cash
  • RBI to Use India Reserves Amid Rout as Modi Mulls Spending

European equities attempt to claw back some lost ground [EuroStoxx 50 +6.1%] having closed Thursday’s session with double-digit losses across major bourses. Gains are relatively broad-based, albeit Italy’s FTSE MIB outperforms regional peers after reports that the Italian market regulator will introduce a temporary ban on short-selling on some stocks today – applying to 85 stocks. Furthermore, press reported that the country could spend up to EUR 16bln on the first stimulus move vs. prior UR 12bln– scheduled to be unveil later today. Sectors are all in the green, albeit off highs, with Energy outperforming amid the rebound in the complex, whilst Consumer Discretionary pulled back from its earlier outperformance as the Travel & Leisure sector dipped back into negative territory. Individual movers largely reflect a consolidation of yesterday, although notorious copper miners BHP (+12.0%) and Rio Tinto (+11.0%) taking advantage of the price action in the red metal. Similarly, BP (+8.2%), Shell (+8.6%) and Total (+8.8%) benefit from the upside seen in the energy markets. Elsewhere, Wirecard (+15.0%) rose as much as 30% at the open after the results by KPMG’s special audit so far noted that there is no need for the Co. to alter their financial statement, although Wirecard results have been delayed to April 30th as the investigation continues.

Top European News

  • VW CEO Sees China Sales Improving as Uncertainty Grows in Europe
  • After Record Sell-Offs, Italy and Spain Ban Short Selling
  • Norges Bank Slashes Key Rate by Half Point to Fight Crisis
  • Europe Stock Rebound Fizzles in Worst Week Since 2008 Crisis

In FX, a double dose of good fortune for the hitherto unlucky Norwegian Krona via a rebound in crude prices and additional stimulus as the Norges Bank followed the Fed and BoE with a ½ point ease in the depo rate in advance of its scheduled March policy meeting next week. Eur/Nok reversed further from fresh all time highs above 11.4500 in response to sub-11.2000, as the Bank also shaved 150 bp off the counter-cyclical buffer for banks before rolling out new F-loans at the lower 1% benchmark rate. Conversely, Eur/Sek remains elevated within a 10.7740-9410 range following relatively limited anti-nCoV policy measures from the Riksbank in the form of a fresh credit line and pledge to provide more funding and QE if required, though Sweden’s FSA did slash the CCB to zero from 2.5%. Moreover, in subsequent pressers Norges Bank and Riksbank Governors both underlined that lower benchmark rates are an option if economic conditions worsen, and for the latter that could be warranted given another spike in jobless rates. Not to be completely outdone, the PBoC preannounced lower RRRs ranging from 50-100 bp, and as much as -200% for joint stock banks all to be rolled out from Monday, helping the Yuan recover from under 7.0000 and risk sentiment overall.

  • AUD/NZD/CAD – Although their US counterpart remains elevated in its own right (DXY pivoting 97.500), the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are all benefiting from a broad revival in risk appetite and especially the former after the RBA supplemented fiscal support with a hefty liquidity boost that helped the ASX turn a whopping loss into a 4%+ gain by the close. Aud/Usd has reclaimed 0.6300+ status and Nzd/Usd is close behind circa 0.6150, while the Loonie is also drawing impetus from the aforementioned bounce in oil to test resistance at 1.3800 vs lows near 1.3950.
  • GBP/CHF/EUR/JPY – The Pound has recouped some losses with Cable back up to 1.2600 from close to 1.2500 at one stage and Eur/Gbp reversing through 0.8900, but Sterling is lagging amidst ongoing COVID-19 and Brexit uncertainty. Similarly, the Franc is cautious awaiting the SNB straddling 0.9450 and hovering just above 1.0550 against the Euro that has regrouped after yesterday’s post-ECB slide in advance of the EU revealing its financial package to fight the pandemic. In stark contrast, the Yen is sharply underperforming on safe-haven unwinding as Usd/Jpy rallies to 106.50+ in wake of yet more speculation about the BoJ expanding its already ultra-accommodative policy with more JGB and other security purchases, ETF buying etc.
  • EM – No real surprise to see the Rouble revel in Brent’s resurrection alongside WTI and other commodities that have been crushed this week, but the Lira seems reluctant to get too carried away due to persistent jitters about relations with Russia on the Syrian front.

In commodities, a day of consolidate/reprieve for commodities following the prior session’s hefty sell-off after prices fell almost 9%, which was induced by materialising virus woes coupled with inept measures from the US to stem the impact of the virus. WTI and Brent front-month contacts have nursed a bulk of yesterday’s losses with the former residing just under USD 33.0/bbl at the time of writing, having momentarily breached the level to the upside in earlier trade. Meanwhile, Brent May’20 tested, but failed to breach resistance at USD 35/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold also attempts a recovery after yesterday’s flee to cash saw the yellow metal trade in close proximity to USD 1550/oz, although prices have waned off today’s current high of ~1594/oz. Copper prices meanwhile rebounds with a vengeance amid Aussie stimulus measures overnight coupled with a turnaround in sentiment and cautious comments from miner Vale on potential suspended operations due to coronavirus, having more than recouped the prior session’s downside to trade comfortably above USD 2.50/lb vs. a low of USD 2.41/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. -1.0%, prior 0.0%; Import Price Index YoY, est. -1.5%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.4%, prior 0.7%; Export Price Index YoY, est. -0.6%, prior 0.5%
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 95, prior 101; Current Conditions, est. 112.8, prior 114.8; Expectations, est. 88.1, prior 92.1
  • 10am: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%; U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m nervous about using the phrase “global policy error” about where we are at the moment as I struggle with the argument that previously overvalued markets should be propped up. 3 weeks ago US equities were in the foothills of a valuation bubble, credit spreads were generally around cyclical tights and not pricing in any of the growing risks and bond yields were close to what were then all time multi-century lows. Clearly no-one could have predicted the virus, but markets were well overdue a correction. However, over the last decade policy makers have decided that their policy of choice is extreme monetary policy and QE. This has super charged virtually all broad asset classes to extreme valuations and has forced investors into taking more and more risk and has pushed them into more and more illiquid assets to meet their return targets or to make sure they weren’t underperforming their peers. Governments have turned a blind eye to this as extreme monetary policy has allowed them to generally be inactive in fiscal policy.

So in doing so policy makers (central banks and governments) have massively financialised the global economy – arguably even more so than it was during the GFC even if the banks are now much safer. The net result is that when financial markets issue a massive cry for help policy makers have to respond to ensure the feedback loop into the economy isn’t exacerbated. I’m not sure I’d heard of the phrase “financial conditions” in the first half of my career. So when Christine Lagarde said yesterday that “We are not here to close spreads, there are other tools and other actors to deal with these issues”, the problem is that this is exactly what they’ve been trying to do for much of the last decade so they can’t reverse course now without major problems. From a communications point of view it wasn’t “whatever it takes”.

Overall though, DB thought that the ECB package yesterday almost ticked all the boxes they could (see here for a full write up from Mark Wall) but that it didn’t give enough confidence on support for Italy. As you’ll see from the note most of the issues were with communication and as he says this can (and will likely) be corrected. Maybe as early as today. The economics team in fact believe that this was the effective precursor to a coordinated European fiscal response as early as next week including a 1% of GDP easing from Germany. A big and significant call.

To show the impact of the confused message yesterday, before the ECB announcement the Stoxx 600 was c.-6.25% but by the time the market closed it was -11.48% – the worst day on record including through every day of the GFC and October 1987. At that point the S&P 500 futures were down -7.83% (post another circuit breaker closure after the open). It took the NY Fed’s immediate $1.5 trillion repo announcement ($5tn to end April) just after Europe closed to rally markets back momentarily. The ECB must have looked at the initial market reaction to this with envy as within 20 minutes the S&P was back to ‘only’ being -2.97% down. It eventually closed -9.51% however and back close to the lows as Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top US health official from the National Institute of Infection Disease said that the country was “failing” when it came to testing. This was only compounded by New York City’s mayor restricting gatherings of 500 people or more and major sports leagues in the US all either suspending the rest of the season or pushing back the start of them.

Overnight markets have been on another wild ride. After being -3% down a couple of hours ago, S&P futures are up +2.8% as we type. Elsewhere the Nikkei (-4.11%), Hang Seng (-1.52%), Shanghai Comp (-1.56%) and Kospi (-2.58%) all erasing much heavier earlier declines likely on the back of liquidity measures undertaken by various central banks.

On that the BoJ, BoC, RBA and Reserve Bank of India have all injected cash into markets overnight.

On the fiscal side, Indonesia announced a fiscal package. The US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also said overnight that she hopes to announce today whether she has an agreement with the Trump administration on a fiscal plan. So one to watch.

In terms of records for yesterday, the S&P 500 had its 5th worst day out of 23,519 since daily data starts in 1927. Just for reference, all the weaker days were in 1929 and 1987. We live in truly remarkable times! The week to date move of -16.54% is as it stands the second worst week ever (with October 2008 having the worst). Needless to say the index is now in a “bear market” having closed down -26.74% from the highs. The NASDAQ tumbled -9.43%, the DOW -9.99% and the VIX jumped 21.57pts to 75.47 (finishing at the highs of the day). The all-time high was 80.86 during the financial crisis. We’re not far off those levels now.

HY credit spreads were +81bps and +86bps wider in the US and Europe. CDX IG and HY were also 23bps and 93bps wider respectively while iTraxx Main and Xover were 16bps and 75bps wider. It didn’t stop there. To give full context to the meltdown in Europe there were some other remarkable equity falls. The DAX (-12.24%) had its worst day since 1989 (-12.81%) and the FTSE MIB (-16.92) the worst ever. In commodities Gas Oil was down -7.41%, Brent -7.18% and Gold -3.60%. The Yen traded flat and Swiss Franc weakened initially before rallying +0.56%.

In bond markets it was the moves in Europe and specifically BTPs which were the most talked about. At one stage 10yrs traded up +72bps at 1.889%. They closed up 59bps after Lagarde walked back on the communication issue from the press conference on CNBC by saying that the ECB can deviate from capital keys if needed. However the move was still the biggest move ever (eclipsing 2011 remarkably) while the spread to Bunds widened to 250bps and to the most since last June. Elsewhere European Banks were down -16.57% yesterday, the second largest drop on record with the biggest being the Brexit day move (-18.02%). The index has now dropped -45.24% from the February highs. 10 year Bund yields were down -6bps early in the session before finishing flat (+0.2bps) even with the largest equity down moves seen in decades or even ever. Treasuries rallied just -6.5bps to finish at 0.804%. The muted bond moves worried some as it hinted at asset deleveraging rather than just a switch into defensives.

Every sector in the S&P 500 was down at least -6.5%, with Pharma & Biotech firms the relative “best performer” along with healthcare equipment and household goods. The worst performers were consumer apparel goods and semiconductors, both down over -12%. In Europe in the Stoxx 600, autos, insurance and banks were among the worst performers, all over -14% lower, while even the best performing sector – food and beverages – was down 8.79%

As a rough state of play for the latest virus disruption news we have the following highlights. In France all schools will close next week and Macron called the virus the epidemic of the century. In the US, every major sports league has suspended activities and both Disney theme parks will be closed through the end of the month – just highlighting how much businesses are being affected. The UK’s chief scientific advisor said he believed the peak of the viral outbreak may be 10-14 weeks away and moved from containment to delay, with PM Boris Johnson describing Covid-19 as the “the worst public health crisis of a generation.” The Philippines has also placed 12 million people in the Manila area on lockdown overnight and has largely suspended government work for a month. Australia has also advised against large gatherings (500 people or more) overnight as their cases jumped 24% to 156 with the Melbourne F1 Grand Prix also cancelled this weekend. Belgium also ordered the closure of all bars and restaurants and other leisure venues overnight. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau’s wife Sophie became another high profile victim of the virus as her tests returned positive. On the brighter side, China said that it only had 8 new cases over the last 24 hours.

We released the results of our latest monthly market sentiment survey yesterday. In terms of how worried people are about contracting covid-19, this has shot up since we did a flash virus survey 9 days before. However, there hasn’t been a huge change in when people think that the Western World will be mostly back to normal. May and June are still the most popular answers. As such, in the turmoil, people did see this large sell-off as a buying opportunity. HY seems to be the exception though. All the data/graphs across many markets and variables are included in the link here.

In other news our Fed call has changed and we now expect 100bps of cuts at the next meeting, bringing the fed funds rate directly to the zero bound. They also don’t rule out an early emergency cut given the volatility. It wouldn’t surprise any of us if this happens at any moment. The team note that if the Fed cuts rates to zero by this meeting as they expect, Chair Powell’s press conference should focus on the next policy steps should the outlook deteriorate further. They expect that the Fed will first use forward guidance to signal their intent to keep rates on hold until downside risks to the outlook subside and inflation is sustainably at 2%, a move in the direction of average inflation targeting. See the note here

Tidying the rest of the new up, as discussed above the NY Fed said mid-US session that it would offer $1.5 trillion of repo and Treasury purchases in order to address the lack of liquidity that has been hampering markets in recent days. This is not yet a return to QE in terms of buying long-term assets, rather the Fed will be buying short-term Treasury bills with maturities less than 1 year. The Fed bought an additional $500 billion, three-month offering on Thursday and will offer $1 trillion in short-term funding on Friday. The facility will offer $5tn of liquidity out to the end of April.

In other news, we will get a host of Chinese data over the lock down period of January and February on Monday. This includes retail sales, investment and industrial output and will likely reveal the extent of damage caused to the Chinese economy.

The day ahead includes final February CPI revisions in Germany and France as well as the preliminary March University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and February import price index data in the US. Finally watch out for any weekend policy moves. We’re starting to be back to weekend’s being the new weekday!

END

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.06 POINTS OR 1.23%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 276.16 POINTS OR 1.14%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 1128.58 POINTS OR 6.08%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 4092%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9857 /Oil UP TO 33.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 35.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9857 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9996 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

South Koreans play with a derivative called an autocallable which is basically insurance of the stock market.  The underwriters of these will no doubt unleash a neutron bomb across all global stock markets

(zerohedge)

Is South Korea About To Unleash A Neutron Bomb Across Global Stock Markets

Last June, when stocks were merrily grinding higher without a care in the world, and certainly oblivious of the crash that was about to slam global markets half a year later, we explained why South Korea’s massive autocallable issuance could be “ground zero” of the next vol catastrophe.

In retrospect it wasn’t: the proverbial “black swan” of the next crisis turned out to be a Chinese black bat, but that doesn’t mean that the world is now safe from what could be a potential volatility tsunami, triggered in South Korea and which sends global markets far lower than where they are now.

But before we go any further, put your hand up if you know what an autocallable is, and since there are barely any hands in the air, let’s back up.

As the “world’s most bearish hedge fund manager”, Horseman Global’s Russell Clark explained in January 2019, autocallables, which are fundmentally structured products that are extremely popular with South Korean traders, are best thought of as a service. A bank will offer to sell insurance on the stock market on your behalf, so that you can generate an income from the premiums received.So rather than buying an autocallable, it’s better to think of an investor as posting collateral for a bank to sell puts on their behalf. Typically, the bank will tell the investor what sort of yield they can generate, for a certain level of insurance. For example, a 5% return as long as the S&P 500 does not fall to 2000, from roughly 2900 today.

 

Typically, when markets fall, the price of insurance rises, and the bank does not need to sell that much insurance to meet a 5% yield target for an investor. Conversely, when markets rise, insurance prices fall, and banks would need to sell more insurance to meet the target yield. Hence, in normal markets, the risk to clients is balanced. More insurance is sold when market rise as insurance prices are low, and less insurance is sold when market fall as insurance prices rise.

However, when there are times when this process goes haywire: i) either when a negative gamma feedback loop emerges, similar to what happened in February 2018 with the VIX complex in the US that liquidated 3x levered inverse vol ETNs, or ii) when the market drop is so precipitous that there is a step function lower in the value of the collateral, and local banks flood clients with margin calls, which in turn prompt a forced liquidation of more risk assets, triggering a feedback loop cascade where selling begets more selling, and not just of South Korean assets, but global, as most of the risk assets collateralizing the autocallables universe are not domestic to South Korea.

We are now deep in scenario II, because shortly after the US suffered its biggest drop since Black Monday 1987, South Korea’s Kospi entered a bear market Friday, while the Kosdaq was halted limit down after tumbling 8%. Furthermore, the Kospi broke below its 200-month average near 1,750 – that’, according to Bloomberg, is a marker that served as a support level during the global financial crisis.

The drop was so big that the Bank of Korea reportedly was discussing the need for a special meeting, and would consider “appropriate steps” to stabilize markets, including open-market operations if needed, while closely monitoring bond markets, according to a Bloomberg update.

However, if Horseman is right, the pain may just be getting started for both retail and institution investors facing massive margin calls. Worse, if the long awaited autocallable liquidation cascade is finally triggered, the shockwave that is unleashed in Seoul could rattles global stock markets, resulting in another – potentially even more dire – selling avalanche.

In a note published today, Horseman’s resurgent CIO, Russell Clarke, also known as the world’s biggest bear whose fund returned a whopping 20% during February’s rout warns that “the continued issuance from Korea suggests that autocallables have not yet been knocked in, and in fact investors are taking advantage of higher volatility to get higher yields.”

However, there is a limit to everything, and today violent liquidation in South Korea may be just the trigger.

Below we lay out the latest thoughts and observations from Clark, who waited patiently for years to be proven right on his doomsday predictions, and which are now being validated courtesy of the biggest weekly crash in global stocks since the financial crisis.

* * *

Korea and the KOSPI 200 are the spiritual home of autocallables. Historically, the KOSPI 200 was a highly volatile market but the long bull market in semiconductors, combined with rampant volatility selling, caused market volatility in the KOSPI 200 to collapse. Even the collapse in memory prices had little effect on KOSPI 200 volatility in 2019. However, the KOSPI volatility has recently broken out to levels not seen since 2011. (Price as at 10.00 GMT – 12 March 2020)

Despite the breakout in volatility there has been no reduction in the issuance of autocallables. In 2015, HSCEI based autocallables were knocked in causing issuance to collapse. The continued issuance from Korea suggests that autocallables have not yet been knocked in, and in fact investors are taking advantage of higher volatility to get higher yields.

Meanwhile, the KOSPI 200 is still above levels that have held since 2011. It is likely the most KOSPI 200 strike prices are set somewhere below the 230 price that has held since 2011.

Autocallables issued in Korea will often include Euro Stoxx 50 in a “worst-of structures” market. A good proxy for the performance of this strategy is the Euro Stoxx 50 PutWrite Strategy. This has recently deteriorated sharply.

The spike in volatility has coincided with a steep decline in the share prices of French banks that structure many of the autocallable products.

If autocallables are triggered, then implied volatility should move even higher from current levels. For clearinghouses, the high level of both implied and realised volatility should lead to increased in margins. As a reminder, LCH as per its Q3 2019 disclosures was still running at initial margins at very low levels to variation margins, although both rose significantly. During the strains of Brexit initial margin rose to be multiples of variation margin.

One more timely way to monitor margins is to look at initial margins for large index futures. With rising volatility, margins have been increasing even as the S&P falls. To normalise over time we divide the amount of margin for trading the future by contract value. Cost of trading has recently risen to 6.4%, the highest level since 2011.

For OTC options, we can use BIS data to get an idea of initial margins. Taking the gross value of margins and dividing it by outstanding notional we can see that values were at a level seen before the global financial crisis and the dot com bubble.

Clark’s ominous conclusion: “Market volatility has risen significantly, but margin and collateral in the system still looks too low. Should autocallables break barriers in the KOSPI 200 or the Euro Stoxx 50, then the structurers will turn into volatility buyers, not sellers. Higher volatility leading to margin calls look likely, which could drive the market lower.

For much more on autocallables, please read “As Autocallable Issuance Explodes, Is This “Ground Zero” Of The Next Vol Catastrophe

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA AFFAIRS

CHINA

China faces an interest rate dilemma as food costs are rising.  This should force the government to raise rates but they cannot due to the coronavirus problem

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

China Faces Interest Rate Dilemma With No Winning Options

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets has an interesting chain of Tweets on China’s unsolvable interest rate mess.

Preemptive Steps Needed to Contain CPI

China Daily reports Preemptive Steps Needed to Contain CPI

China’s consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, grew 5.2 percent year-on-year in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. The growth, in line with market expectations, was slightly lower than 5.4 percent in January. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.8 percent.

Food prices, which account for nearly one-third of weighting in China’s CPI, went up 21.9 percent year-on-year in February, contributing 4.45 percentage points to the rise in the index as the novel coronavirus outbreak disrupted market supplies and demands.

That the CPI has been above 5 percent for two consecutive months has raised fears that China could face high inflation in the long run, which could have a negative impact on people’s livelihoods that have already been affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic.

Bank of China Faces a Real Dilemma with Interest Rates

Hiking rates in the midst of shocks like this are out of the question. There are no preemptive steps to take.

CPI Inflation is at 5% but bank interest rates are only 1.5%.

Food production has collapsed, but lower interest rates to stimulate will stimulate the wrong things while hurting consumer savings.

Lower spreads will hurt bank profits and the Chinese banking system is a basket of nonperforming SOE loans.

Pettis Tweet Thread on China’s Dilemma

  1. It seems to me that the PBoC faces a real dilemma with interest rates. Thanks to still-soaring food costs CPI inflation in February remained above 5%, well above the deposit rate, with 1-year deposits at 1.50% and average deposits much lower. This means…
  2. …that the value of household savings is being eroded by rising food costs, and this effectively represents a wealth transfer away from households, with poorer households being hit harder (both because of limited savings opportunities and because food is a larger share of…
  3. …their consumption basket). This is exactly the opposite of what Beijing needs if it is to reduce its over-reliance on spurious investment to generate growth. If households have to increase their savings rate in order to make up for the inflation tax, they must spend less…
  4. …on consumption, in which case China needs more investment to generate the same amount of growth. This is why the PBoC doesn’t want to lower the deposit rate. But it cannot raise rates either. Unlike in 2000-11, when banks and corporate/government borrowers were the huge…
  5. …beneficiaries from extremely negative real interest rates, they aren’t this time around. With negative PPI inflation, and a 1-year loan prime rate of 4.05%, manufacturers may in fact be borrowing at very high real rates, especially given that all the inflation is showing…
  6. …up in food prices, whereas the prices of the manufactured goods they produce are stable or even trending down. This probably just means that last year’s collapse in meat production – which is the main source of CPI inflation – is being paid for in part by households, in…
  7. …the form of an erosion in the value of their savings, in part by businesses, in the form of high real borrowing costs, and of course in part by farmers. This makes it very difficult for the PBoC either to raise lending rates or lower deposit rates, and of course it can’t…
  8. …narrow the spread because that would effectively force already-undercapitalized banks to absorb the cost. Once food prices drop we might see a very sharp reversal of wealth transfers from the household sector, but until then the PBoC doesn’t have much space for maneuver.

Here is the Lead Tweet if you want to see it all on Twitter.

Inflation or Deflation?

This was the subject of a debate on Twitter. Many see a round of inflation but I generally see it differently.

The collapse in demand will take care of shortages except for critical things like food.

China has a unique problem. Low food production and a soaring CPI in response.

Unless there is a food production problem in the US, the Fed will not face the same dilemma.

Exporters Hit Hardest

The global export powerhouses will get hit the hardest by this.

China and Germany are at the top of the list.

Deflationary US Outcome

I believe a Very Deflationary Outcome Has Begun.

Prepare for another round of debt deflation, possibly accompanied by a lower CPI especially if one accurately includes home prices instead of rents in the CPI calculation.

Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to defeat routine consumer price deflation is what fuels the destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse

I am not blaming the Fed for the coronavirus and these shocks.

However, I am blaming the Fed for its erroneous inflationary tactics that blew three of the biggest economic bubble in succession: 2000, 2007, 2020.

Bubbles are inherently deflationary. It’s asset asset bubble deflation that is damaging, not routine price deflation

“Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated a BIS study.

For a discussion of the BIS deflation study, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Supply Shock and a Demand Shock Coming Up

Supply Shock and a Demand Shock are Coming Up.

Worth Repeating

Mike “Mish” Shedlock@MishGEA

Well – Not Me
I have been calling for lower and lower yields

People do not understand debt deflation https://twitter.com/siddiqui71/status/1232757112108961792 

IZ@siddiqui71

They’ve been calling a “Treasuries Bubble” for over a decade.$TLT https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1232755926375043072 

Deflation is not really about prices. It’s about the value of debt on the books of banks that cannot be paid back by zombie corporations and individuals.

75% of Companies Suffer From Coronavirus Supply Chain Disruptions

The ISM says 75% of Companies Suffer From Coronavirus Supply Chain Disruptions

Don’t expect inflation out of this except in medical supplies and related items.

Q. Why?

A: The demand shock over stock market decline and lost wages has not been felt yet. It soon will.

END

END

The knives are coming out:  The USA issues a summons to the Chinese ambassador over “blatant, global Covid 19 disinformation”

Generally the uSA is furious that the Chinese are blaming the uSA where it is obvious that it China that started the pandemic.

(zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY
Italy bans short sales and they blame Lagarde for the stock makret plung yesterday
(zerohedge)

Italy Bans Short Sales, Blames Christine Lagarde For Stock Market Plunge

Four days after Italy’s former (and most likely future) prime minister, Matteo Salvincalled for a short selling ban (referencing none other than George Soros who “built his fortune betting against Italy”) on Italian stocks, Italy’s market regulator, Consob, announced that short-selling would indeed be banned on Friday, March 13, with the temporary ban applying to 85 companies listed on Milan stock exchange.

Ironically, just two days ago, the head of Italy’s bourse, Raffaele Jerusalmi, said that a ban on short selling to deal with market reactions to the coronavirus outbreak would be useful only if applied at a European or broader level and for specific sectors.

“If there were sectors particularly at risk, an intervention by the regulatory authorities could be useful,” Raffaele Jerusalmi said in a streamed interview with Il Sole 24 Ore.

And to think all it took to change his mind was a 20% drop in the Italian stock market in the next two days.

And with Italy getting increasingly sensitive about its crashing market, there was an amusing development earlier, when the country’s Economic Development Minister Stefano Patuanelli said in an interview that ECB President Christine Lagarde caused the biggest stock market drop in Italy with her comments at the ECB press conference.

The minister added that he hopes her words were an accident referring to Lagarde’s comment that the ECB is “not here to close spreads”, because apparently so used are the Italians to central banks that do close spreads (especially when they are headed by other Italians-cum-former Goldmanites), that if anyone refuses to explicitly backstop Italy’s risk assets, they are an enemy of the state.

And it’s not just Italy: late on Thursday, Spain’s Regulator also set a one-day short-sale ban on 69 stocks that fell more than certain amounts Thursday.

Finally, what none of the regulators appear to know is that banning short sales in a time of crisis does two things: i) it makes the liquidation period more painful and more drawn out, and ii) it results in an even greater drawdown when all is said and done, something the US learned in the depths of the financial crisis when the SEC did exactly the same thing, only to unleash another 30% of selling before the market stabilized around a “generational” low of 666. And come to think of it, it is now another generation’s turn to retest said low.

END

ITALY
A good look at Italy today where Italian families are stuck inside their homes with dead bodies (spouses) as the nationwide lockdown begins
(zerohedge)

“We Are Treated Worse Than Garbage”: Italian Families Stuck Inside With Bodies Of Dead Spouses As Nationwide Lockdown Begins

Thanks in part to President Trump’s nonchalant initial response (though as he demonstrated during last night’s Oval Office press conference, the president has changed his tune – or at least it appears that way), millions of Americans still believe the coronavirus is – worst case – like a bad flu.

Actors Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson inadvertently amplified this idea when they reported feeling “a little achey” after testing positive for the virus in Australia.

But after reading this desperate plea from an Italian citizen whose sister succumbed to Covid-19 before ever making it to a hospital, hopefully they’ll understand what’s really at stake here. As Dr. Scott Gottlieb said earlier on CNBC: It’s probably too late for America to be South Korea (aka taking swift steps to contain the outbreaks before they get out of control), but we don’t have to be Italy.

When his sister died after contracting the novel coronavirus, Luca Franzese thought that things couldn’t get much worse.

Then, for more than 36 hours, the Italian actor and mixed martial arts trainer was trapped at home with Teresa Franzese’s decaying body, unable to find a funeral home that would bury her.

“I have my sister in bed, dead, I don’t know what to do,” Franzese said in a Facebook video over the weekend, pleading for help. “I cannot give her the honor she deserves because the institutions have abandoned me. I contacted everyone, but nobody was able to give me an answer.”

Initially posted to Facebook, Luca’s video was also shared to YouTube as he and thousands of other Italians tried to get the message out: Local officials don’t care: Luca tried to find a funeral home to bury his sister and for weeks “ma nessuno ne fregata” – but nobody gave a fuck.

Al Jazeera reported that Teresa Franzese, 47, suffered from epilepsy but was healthy up until last week, when she began showing symptoms of coronavirus. She died Saturday evening in her home in Naples, the country’s third-largest city, and the largest in the Italian south. Teresa was tested for the virus only after her death, Luca said.

During a press conference last night, PM Giuseppe Conte warned that Italian people that although the government’s strict new measures to combat the virus might seem harsh at times, they are absolutely necessary to slow the spread of the virus and prevent Italy’s health-care system from being completely overrun.

Italy now has the largest number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the world outside mainland China. With 827 confirmed deaths, it has the largest death toll in the world outside mainland China and probably Iran (though the regime has successfully kept the real numbers mostly secret).

And as the Washington Post reports, attempts to slow the spread of the disease have led to unintended consequences, including several instances (including the incident with Luca’s sister) where funeral homes have refused to collect the bodies of those infected with the virus.

In Teresa’s case, she was apparently the first person in Italy to die at home and then test positive for the virus after.

After various authorities failed to come up with an answer, Franzese said, the city of Naples finally referred him to a funeral home. But the funeral home refused, telling him it wasn’t equipped to deal with the situation.

“It was the first case in Italy in which a person with the virus dies at home, so there was some confusion on what to do,” Francesco Emilio Borrelli, a local councilor who also serves as a member of Campania’s Regional Health Commission, told Al Jazeera.

In response, Luca slammed Italian authorities in the video, which was seen by millions of viewers. He has published several videos, including another that he shared on Facebook, where he shares the details surrounding Teresa’s death and his battle with the authorities, before declaring that he felt abandoned by the state.

“We are ruined,” he said. “Italy has abandoned us.”

The funeral home involved in Luca’s case insisted that it only turned away Teresa’s body due to “administrative hurdles” imposed by the government, and that they would have gladly taken it immediately if not for that. It’s not the only such incident that has been reported, and local prosecutors in Savona are reportedly opening a case into a similar incident.

But Luca’s case wasn’t the only virus-response nightmare to go viral in Italy. One woman in Borghetto Santo Spirito was quarantined alongside the dead body of her husband, who contracted the virus, but refused to go the hospital, according to CNN.

Yet another disturbing scenario played out this week when a woman was quarantined alongside the body of her dead husband. Giancarlo Canepa, the mayor of Borghetto Santo Spirito in northern Italy, told CNN that the man died at 2 a.m. Monday, but that nobody would be allowed to remove his body until Wednesday morning.

An Italian woman has been unable to leave her apartment where her husband’s dead body is being kept due to quarantine restrictions, Giancarlo Canepa, mayor of Borghetto Santo Spirito, told CNN Tuesday.

The husband, who had tested positive for coronavirus previously, died Monday at 2 a.m. local time.

A local Italian media outlet interviewed several of the couple’s relatives, one of whom expressed grief and disbelief that their family member was suffering through such a tragedy alone, and that nobody was allowed to visit or comfort her.

Speaking of the strict quarantine rules, she said “siamo trattati peggio dell’immondizia, almeno quella si differenzia.”

In English:

“We are treated worse than garbage. At least this is different.”

There was some debate among experts after PM Conte declared the initial zone rosse’ whether Italians would go along with the restrictions. Stories like these certainly undermine the legitimacy of the government’s response to the virus by destroying peoples’ faith in the systems that have been supposedly put in place to help those impacted by the virus. Last night’s clarification that all bars, restaurants and stores of all kinds except for groceries and pharmacies would be closed probably added to the stress.

The FT reports that Italy is working at “10% capacity” as of Thursday. Meanwhile, tourist attractions like St. Mark’s Square and the Trevi Fountain appear eerily vacant.

Welcome to Italy: Where even the grave diggers are being quarantined.

END

FLORENCE  ITALY

The mayor of Florence now wishes he did not encourage

(zerohedge)

Mayor Of Florence Encouraged Italians To “Hug A Chinese” Before Pandemic Hit

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

The Mayor of Florence is facing fresh criticism after he encouraged Italians to “Hug a Chinese” as a stand against racism before Italy was later forced to quarantine its entire country because of the coronavirus.

The story is yet another illustration of how political correctness can actually sometimes be dangerous if not fatal.

Italy is now under a complete lockdown after the country was ravaged by coronavirus. Current figures show over 12,000 recorded infections with 827 deaths.

Many observers have criticized Italy’s left-wing government for not taking tougher measures earlier, but their reaction was significantly less embarrassing than how Mayor of Florence Dario Nardella responded to the outbreak.

Back in February, as the first cases of coronavirus were being recorded in Italy, Nardella launched an anti-racism hashtag campaign which translates as “hug a Chinese.”

“Half-empty Chinese restaurants, suspicious looks when you meet a Chinese on the street – maybe born and raised in Italy – psychosis when the bus neighbor sneezes, this is the effect of Coronavirus on the Italian population,” reported Newsly.it.

A video shows a Chinese man wearing a blindfold and a face mask in Florence asking for hugs. Numerous people embrace the man while some physically remove his blindfold and mask.

The Mayor even released a Twitter video of himself hugging an awkward-looking Chinese person to promote the campaign, which was launched to “stem the hatred” and “express solidarity with the Chinese community.”

Dario Nardella

@DarioNardella

: seguiamo le indicazioni delle autorità sanitarie e usiamo cautela, ma nessun terrorismo psicologico e soprattutto basta con i soliti sciacalli che non vedevano l’ora di usare questa scusa per odiare e insultare. Uniti in questa battaglia comune!

Embedded video

Suffice to say Nardella is a member of the left-wing Democratic Party in Italy.

One wonders if he sees the empty streets in Florence and ponders whether his absurd campaign contributed to the current state of Italy.

*  *  *

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END

GERMANY

The reason for the USA stock market rise is due to German Fin Min stating they Germany will spend billions to cushion the economy

spend on what?

(zerohedge)

European Stocks Soar, Yields Plunge As FinMin Says Germany Will Spend “Billions” To Cushion The Economy

Update (0810ET): In case you couldn’t put 2 and 2 together, Scholz has clarified that it’s “possible” Germany will need to take on “added debt” to finance this stimulus effort.

As Merkel explained yesterday, Germany’s constitutional debt brake allows for excess spending in the event of an emergency, according to Reuters.

Germany’s debt brake rule allows for exceptions in extraordinary situations and the coronavirus crisis is such a case, Chancellor Angela Merkel explained on Thursday. Under the rule, the federal government can take on new debt of up to 0.35% of GDP.

“The debt brake…provides for exceptions in extraordinary situations – and that is, as I said yesterday, really not our topic as to how the budget balance will look in the end,” Merkel told a news conference. “We are in a situation that is unusual in every respect and I would say more unusual than at the time of the banking crisis.”

After all, this is “the crisis of the decade”, right?

*  *  *

One day after the biggest drop in European stocks since the financial crisis, German stocks have come roaring back and bond yields have plunged after Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said Friday that Germany would abandon the ‘debt break’ and whip out the government credit card to help shelter its economy from the vicissitudes of the global coronavirus outbreak.

One day after Chancellor Merkel voiced support for the idea, Scholz said Germany will spend “billions” to cushion the economy

annmarie hordern

@annmarie

BREAKING: Germany will provide unlimited liquidity.

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz says Germany will spend billions to cushion the economy.

Embedded video

Of course, Germany’s notorious fiscal prudence means that some members of Merkel’s center-right CDU will likely oppose the move, as some have already expressed opposition to suspending the constitutional debt limits.

Stocks across the developed world rebounded on Friday, soaring into the green in what appears to be a coordinated dip-buying exercise. The STOXX Europe 600 was up 7.3% in recent trade, leaving it on track for its largest daily gain since 2008.

Bond yields, meanwhile, plunged on the news.

  • GERMAN 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DECLINE,  YIELD UP 14BPS
  • GERMAN 30-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DECLINE,  YIELD UP 15BPS

Scholz added that Germany could adopt a more formalized fiscal stimulus program if needed.

END

SPAIN//CORONAVIRUS

Spain did not act quick enough to cancel the Women’s day march held last week.  Today we learn that because of that march we had a huge surge in infections

(zerohedge)

 

 

Last Week’s ‘Women’s Day’ March Led To Surge Of Deadly Coronavirus Infections In Madrid

As the Italian lockdown enters its third day, Madrid is rapidly becoming Europe’s latest problem area.

According to the Spanish-language newspaper El Mundo, which cited data from local health councilor Enrique Ruiz Escudero, 2,000 people in the Madrid region alone have tested positive for Covid-19 as of March 13, up from 1,388 as of March 12. Escudero described the surge as “very worrying.”

At 6 pm on Thursday, the number of cases in Madrid had stood at 1,388 out of a total of 3,004 in Spain as a whole.

 

Enrique Ruiz Escudero begged Spain’s socialist-controlled federal government for more supplies to help combat the virus as “community spread” intensifies. Ruiz Escudero made the comments as he and other top Madrid officials pleaded with Spain’s central government for more supplies to help combat the virus as the “community spread” intensifies.

Ruiz Escuadero called for restaurants and bars to close and begged people to stay at home to reduce the risk of infection.

“This is the only thing that we know we can do to contain it,” Ruiz Escudero said of the calls for citizens to remain at home, adding that 190 people with the virus were now in intensive care in Madrid, while 40 people in the region have died.

The health councilor said the number of cases was expected to rise “very much” in the coming days, mostly due to the contagion spread at last weekend’s ‘International Women’s Day’ March, where thousands gathered to march without much regard for public health concerns (or the serious risks they were creating for vulnerable people in their communities).

Spain appears to have won a three-way battle with Germany and France for the mantle of Europe’s second-worst outbreak of Covid-19. Spain has the second-highest number of total confirmed cases in Europe after Italy now that the virus has accelerated over the past week since the Women’s March.

Europe’s fourth-largest economy has decided to shutter its schools to try and contain the pandemic, while also closing museums and banning events with more than 1,000 people.

Though tougher restrictions have been adopted, it will take at least a week to figure out whether they’ve worked or not.

END

 

SPAIN/REUTERS

IT IS NOW GETTING REALLY BAD IN SPAIN AS THE PRIME mINISTER STATES THAT IT EXPECTS 10,000 CONRONAVIRUS CASES BY NEXT WEEK

(ZEROHEDGE)

Spain could surpass 10,000 coronavirus cases as early as next week – PM

: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez speaks during a news conference after taking part in a conference call with European leaders at the Moncloa Palace in Madrid, Spain, March 10, 2020. REUTERS/Sergio Perez

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Friday said that the country could surpass the number of 10,000 coronavirus cases as early as next week.

Sanchez also said its administration would undertake all necessary measures to protect its citizens.

The current Spanish tally stands at 4,209.

END

GREECE/TURKEY

Do you blame the Greeks? They are desperately denying entry of refugees into their country

(zerohedge)

Erdogan Blasts “Nazi” Greeks For Denying’ Refugees’ Access To Europe

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that he would continue to flood migrants and refugees into Europe until European officials satisfied his demands, reported France 24.

Erdogan said Greece’s treatment of migrants and refugees at the Greece–Turkey border is comparable to Nazi atrocities.

“There is no difference between what the Nazis did and those images from the Greek border,” Erdogan said.

“Until all Turkey’s expectations, including free movement … updating of the customs union and financial assistance, are tangibly met, we will continue the practice on our borders,” he told his AKP parliamentary group.

 

Turkish authorities over the last month have been facilitating refugee and migrant flows towards the border with Greece as Erdogan has made good on his promise to ‘open the gates.’ Erdogan views this move as a means to destabilize European governments and their economies in hopes Brussels would submit to his demands, including, more recently, greater assistance with the Syrian conflict.

Ankara has openly said its strategy is to push migrants from Syria to the European border and make sure they do not return. Turkey deployed 1,000 special operations police officers along the 124 mile stretch of the border to make sure migrants stay in Greece.

A video earlier this week showed Turkish special operations police using an armored vehicle with a rope to pull down a border fence, in an attempt to flood Greece with migrants. The outcome, however, was unsuccessful but outlined Ankara’s dangerous attempt to unleash migrant hell on Europe.

CNW@ConflictsW

A Turkish armoured vehicle with a rope attached to it was reportedly trying to pull down the Greek border fence this evening

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Greece has shut its border with Turkey to avoid a migrant rush at the port of entries. Parts of its border with Turkey have been militarized; in anticipation, a crisis could soon develop as tens of thousands of people are awaiting entry.

Julia Hahn@juliahahntv

“This is all a game. We just want someone to tell us what will happen.”
Thousands of refugees & migrants have rushed to Turkey’s border with Greece hoping to cross into Europe. It’s freezing. They have no shelter, not enough food. 📽️Our report from Edirne: https://p.dw.com/p/3YgCV

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The Duke@john_wayne_gr

Turkey is officially a terrorist state.
Turkish authorities equip migrants with chemicals and guide them to the Greek border.
This is an invasion.

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Nic 🇬🇷@NicAthens

Today’s situation from the Greek Turkish borders, the Greek police continued to drop water on the illegal Turkish migrants.

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Asaad Hanna

@AsaadHannaa

The Greek border police is torturing, humiliating and violating the refugees who crossed the river to Greece.
The police tortured the civilians, took their clothes and sent them back to Turkey to suffer.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Aurelia BAILLY

@AureliaBAILLY

Migrants try to remove fences during the clashes with Greek police, after they tried to pass on Greek side, on the buffer zone Turkey-Greece border in Edirne.
A picture by photographer @Kilicbil

View image on Twitter

Saouridou Vasiliki@saouridouvaso

Don’t go to Europe the border is closed go back

View image on Twitter

Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu was quoted last weekend as saying the next wave of migrants to flood Europe could reach one million, which would lead to a collapse of European governments and economies.

Turkey’s Communications Directorate Fahrettin Altun criticized Greek authorities last week over the “ill-treatment of refugees.”

Erdogan said Greek border guards have “opened fire on innocent people, exposing them to all kinds of inhumane treatment … [It] is barbarism in the full sense of the word.”

He added that “with the warming of the weather in the spring, the influx of irregular migrants heading to Europe will not be limited to Greece but spread all over the Mediterranean.”

Turkey has approximately 4 million refugees within its borders, many of which are from Syria, as even more are expected to flood into the country as the situation in Idlib, Syria, continues to deteriorate.

As warmer weather approaches, tens of thousands of migrants and refugees are lining up along the Greece–Turkey border, with hundreds of thousands of others shortly behind them, is only a matter of time before a breach is seen, as increased migrant flows into Europe could be imminent.

And to make matters worse, this all comes at a time when coronavirus is spreading like wildfire across the European continent. A migrant crisis and a pandemic could be what destroys Europe. 

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/THE WEST

As Iran gets wiped out due to the pandemic, hawks fear the worst that Iran will try to make a nuclear bomb

(zerohedge)

As Iran Nuclear Inspections Disrupted By Pandemic, Hawks Fear The Worst 

US and Israeli hawks are worried Iran could use coronavirus pandemic fears and Western governments’ preoccupation with staving off the accompanying economic disaster to evade nuclear monitors and quickly ramp up weapons-grade uranium development.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials are already talking about dramatically increasing the UN nuclear watchdog’s remote monitoring capabilities, such as cameras and data monitors placed at key sites connected with Iranian nuclear power. Crucially the IAEA has online enrichment monitoring installed at some key nuclear locations throughout the country, such as at Natanz.

 

 

IAEA inspection team, file image via Asia News.

Some of these remote monitoring powers were established under the 2015 nuclear deal, but as coronavirus inside the Islamic Republic has begun impacting inspection teams directly, and also in many cases thwarting ability to inspect sites, officials want to see remote monitoring hugely increased.

 

Bloomberg reports on Thursday, “There’s concern that contact with carriers of the virus in Iran, where senior officials have been infected, could deplete the International Atomic Energy Agency’s roster of inspectors by forcing some into quarantine, according to two diplomats briefed on the matter who asked not to be identified.”

Andreas Persbo, a nuclear-verification specialist at the think tank European Leadership Network told Bloomberg: “At a time when the prevalence of coronavirus in Iran potentially makes life for inspectors more difficult, the redundancies built into the JCPOA become more valuable.” He added, “That’s particularly the case for online enrichment monitoring.”

The IAEA in conjunction with the US’ Oak Ridge National Laboratory previously developed unique online enrichment monitoring technology specifically for Iran as part of the JCPOA.

 

Patrick Air Force Base laboratory, which helps monitor and ensure international nuclear treaty compliance, via Florida Today.

However, it’s still in somewhat early usage and development, given that, “The gear was tested in July at Iran’s biggest uranium-enrichment facility in Natanz, after Iran raised uranium enrichment levels to 4.5% in response to renewed U.S. sanctions,” according to the Bloomberg report.

Officials confirmed the system worked exactly as expected and detected the breach. And now it’s seen as more urgent inside the country as ever, also given anti-Iran hawks in the West are growing increasingly anxious over further violations as the globe is distracted by the more immediately pressing pandemic.

END

IRAN/IMF/CORONAVIRUS

This is the clearest definition of “chutzpah”  Despite their continual support of terrorism across the middle east and elsewhere, Iran is asking the IMF for a $5 billion dollar emergency loan.  Coronavirus deaths now soar to near 500

(zerohedge)

Iran Asks IMF For $5BN Emergency Loan As Death Toll Soars Near 500

Citing vast shortages of medical supplies and pharmaceuticals due to US-led sanctions, Iran is urging IMF relief as it battles coronavirus to the tune of $5 billion.

Days ago Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif accused President Trump on Twitter of “maliciously tightening US’ illegal sanctions with aim of draining Iran’s resources needed in the fight against Covid-19 — while our citizens are dying from it.” Now he’s urging immediate emergency aid:

Iran has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency funding to help it fight the coronavirus outbreak, which has hit the Islamic Republic hard, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet on Thursday.

 

Iranian cabinet members wearing face masks attend their meeting in Tehran, Iran. Source: Iranian Presidency via AP

As Reuters reports Thursday, Iran’s Central Bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati revealed in a social media post that “in a letter addressed to the head of IMF, I have requested five billion U.S. dollar from the RFI emergency fund to help our fight against the coronavirus”.

And Zarif in a follow-up message noted that IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, “has stated that countries affected by #COVID19 will be supported via Rapid Financial Instrument. Our Central Bank requested access to this facility immediately.”

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

URGENT

Iranian care personnel are courageously battling on frontlines

Their efforts are stymied by vast shortages caused by restrictions on our people’s access to medicine/equipment

Most urgent needs are outlined below

Viruses don’t discriminate. Nor should humankind

View image on Twitter

Iran remains among the top outbreak epicenters outside China, as cases spike in the Middle East.

Per new reports confirmed cases in the region have pushed well past 10,000, with most in the Islamic Republic:

A slew of new coronavirus infections pushed the number of cases in the Middle East well past 10,000 on Thursday – and many of those infected are linked to Iran.

The Islamic Republic government, which said more than 360 people have died and about 9,000 are infected by the virus, has increasingly come under fire, accused of under representing the impact of the virus on its people.

Per the AP, the death toll has reached 429 as of later in the day Thursday and is expected to climb further.

But at this point the true numbers of infected in Iran are widely believed to be well into the multiple tens of thousands, as the country’s ill-prepared and severely short-on-supplies health system is overwhelmed.

Zarif concluded his latest appeal for emergency IMF aid by saying, “Viruses don’t discriminate. Nor should humankind.”

END
IRAN/USA//IRAQ
Large Iranian backed militias are in Iraq and last night a large scale USA airstrike against them was underway.  Surprisingly Iran, out of money, pharmaceuticals and food is asking the IMF for a bailout
(zerohedge)

Large Scale US Airstrikes Underway Against Iran-Backed Militias In Iraq

After earlier in the day President Trump authorized the Pentagon to “do what we need to do” in terms of a military response against Iran-backed militias believed responsible for Wednesday’s rocket attacks on Camp Taji, which killed one British and two American soldiers, and wounded at least a dozen more, there are widespread reports the US has initiated massive airstrikes over southern Iraq late Thursday night.

A BBC correspondent in the region is describing “multiple strikes across Iran-backed groups’ facilities” which include “logistics and drone warehouses.”

Early reports suggest the attack includes “large amounts of munitions” on multiple Iraqi Shia militia targets. Moments after initial reports on social media US defense offcials confirmed that “airstrikes are underway against Iran-backed militia group that hit Iraq base,” according to the Associated Press.

Nafiseh Kohnavard

@nafisehkBBC

Bombing -backed paramilitary group positions around and is significant. This is the largest amount of force I’ve seen against Hashd () so far. These areas are considered “No fly zones” for . Jets may have come from or

As if the Mideast region and the world for that matter needs another crisis to worry about, this could be the start of the kind of tit-for-tat between the US and Iran which paved the way for the US killing by drone of IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani on January 3rd. Since then, the two have been on a war footing.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper hours ago warned the US would hold the groups behind Wednesday’s attack on Taji base accountable. “You don’t get to shoot at our bases and kill and wound Americans and get away with it,” he said earlier.

According to Fox News security correspondent Jennifer Griffin:

The US response will be “proportional” targeting multiple locations used by Iranian backed Shia militias across Iraq and along Syrian border.

Will be limited to airstrikes: source. Will degrade Shia militia/ Kata’eb Hezbollah ability to strike: US military source.

Heshmat Alavi@HeshmatAlavi


-U.S. military confirming airstrikes
-Iraqi activists reporting warplanes flying over multiple provinces of Iraq, including Salahadin, Baghdad, Anbar, Babil, Karbala
-Video of Jurf Sakhar

The US has said Kata’eb Hezbollah is responsible, given it’s “the only group known to have previously conducted an indirect fire attack of this scale against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq.” The major attack had utilized at least 15 Soviet-era rocket artillery and further left a dozen wounded.

A top Pentagon general also said earlier the Iran-backed militias were to blame and that the US can identify the culprit with a “high degree of certainty”.

END

IRAQ/REFUGEE CAMPS

This is a nightmare as Iraq detects covid 19 cases in overcrowded refugee camps

(ZEROHEDGE)

Nightmare Scenario: Iraq Detects Suspected Covid-19 Cases In Overcrowded Refugee Camp

War-torn regions of the Middle East remain hugely vulnerable for the spread of Covid-19 due to hundreds of thousands of families packed into often filthy temporary settlements already running low on basic staples for survival.

And now a nightmare scenario is unfolding in Iraq as the United Nations has recorded the first suspected coronavirus cases inside an Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp.

 

Refugee camp in northern Iraq, file image via The Telegraph.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued an alert in its latest humanitarian report this week, noting also the World Health Organization (WHO) has dispatched additional supplies and medical devices to Iraq amid broader closures of public spaces after at least 71 confirmed cases nationwide.

But with millions of refugees in the region, especially along the Turkish-Syrian border, and after Erdogan has effectively ‘opened the gates’ on waves of migrants headed to Europe, the spark that could erupt an explosion of outbreaks in camps across the Middle East may have started.

Charles Lister

@Charles_Lister

NEW: has detected its first possible IDP camp cases — a nightmare development.

There are ~1 million displaced people in ; camps are overpopulated & lacking in healthcare, sanitation etc.

The alarming new OCHA report reads:

The first suspected cases of COVID-19 were documented in an IDP camp in Ninewa; the affected persons were transported to hospital, and a makeshift isolation unit was put in place. Sterilization activities are under way.

Crucially, this region lies along the Syrian border in Iraq’s northwest, and is near Turkey in a broader border area which has over the past years witnessed entire ‘refugee cities’ erected.

Surrounding countries like Kuwait have taken proactive measures for heightened testing along their borders and points of entry, but other regional governments have lagged behind:

Jenan Moussa

@jenanmoussa

Kuwait is testing for every single expat who arrived in the country since 27th Feb 2020.

Look at the enormous size of this operation 👇 https://twitter.com/COVID19Arabic/status/1238064826871615489 

COVID19_News@COVID19Arabic

إقبال كثيف من قبل المقيمين في الكويت الى مركز الفحص الطبي تلبية لدعوة وزارة الصحة لمتابعة فحوصاتهم الطبية المتعلقة ب #فيروس_كورونا.#كورونا_في_الكويت

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The WHO previously said it’s especially concerned of an outbreak among refugee populations in war-torn regions of Iraq and Syria.

“Refugees and internally displaced populations across Iraq and Syria have been identified as the most vulnerable groups in the region, should the spread of the virus become a pandemic,” The Guardian reported of recent statements.

“Health officials in both countries remain under-equipped to deal with such a a reality that seems more possible with each passing day,” the report added.

And as Turkey continues to allow and even actively facilitate the passage of refugees and migrants into Greece and other EU states, the Covid-19 crisis currently shutting down entire countries in Europe is set to explode further.

END

6.Global Issues

Brandon Smith offers his opinion as to why we should panic with their coronavirus pandemic:

(Brandon Smith)

Panic? You Haven’t Seen Anything Yet…

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

One rule every preparedness expert should go by is to always be concerned when establishment authorities, the media and “shoe shine boys” start volunteering their “expert” opinions on why you should not be concerned about a particular danger.  The establishment most likely has an agenda to keep you passive, and the shoe shine boys are simply regurgitating what they hear from the media like good little robots.  These people are far too interested in whether or not you are preparing for a threat; in fact they seem hell bent on talking you out of preparation in general.  Why is that?

In the past two months I have seen an endless flow of mainstream news stories arguing first, that Covid 19 is nothing to worry, and second, that the public is “in a panic” over the virus.

  • The first assertion is obviously ridiculous. With an official death rate of around 6% in Italy alone, I think we are starting to see what the Chinese government has been trying to hide as they continue to threaten their citizens with punishment for leaking “fake news” (FACTS) on the coronavirus. This event is not something to be taken lightly; it is a paradigm shifting scenario which will change the world forever.
  • The second assertion seems to be a calculated exaggeration; a form of reverse psychology. Keep telling people they are “panicking” when they are not and maybe they will go to the other extreme and passively do nothing at all just to avoid the label. I have to say, I don’t think people in this day and age know what a mass “panic” actually is, especially if their only point of reference is some empty toilet paper shelves at Costco.

In terms of the stock markets one could say a “panic” has FINALLY ensued as trillions in capital are being wiped out daily, but this does not affect the average person financially in the short term. The stock market matters only in that it is a psychological placebo which keeps people from looking into the deeper problems within the fundamentals of the economy. They see the stock market is doing well, they don’t bother to investigate anything else.

Now that stocks are crashing perhaps the public will look into other more important factors, including historic levels of corporate and consumer debt, the global dollar liquidity shortage and the Fed’s repo crisis, the global plunge in exports and manufacturing, the retail Apocalypse in the US, collapsing Treasury yields, collapsing oil prices, etc. Most of these are problems that existed long before the coronavirus, but maybe now people will start paying attention to them.

These problems will still be lost on the shoe-shine boys, who will continue to call you a “chicken little” for merely taking practical precautions in case of disaster.

A friend of mine was talking with some people at a local gas station about getting prepared just in case supply lines break down during the pandemic.  A highway patrolman overheard him and decided to butt into the conversation, smugly telling everyone this is “just another Y2K” and it only kills people over the age of 80.  My friend related to me that he tried to present a rational case for why his concerns go beyond just the virus…but the dumb cop just grinned and ignored him.

I had an interesting encounter a few weeks ago myself, when I was surprised to find a box of N95 masks at a hardware store.  I went to purchase them to add to my supply and a cashier in a little vest decided to regale me with a long list of reasons why the coronavirus is “no worse than the flu” and there’s nothing to worry about.  None of his information was correct, but it’s not really my job to save every all-knowing cashier I come across, so I just told him “I guess we’ll find out in a couple of months…but it’s better to be found prepared than it is to be found stupid.”  The box of masks I purchased for $14 is now selling for $100, if you can even find them.

JFK Sr. related a story about how he knew the stock market crash of 1929 was coming when a shoe-shine boy started offering him unsolicited investment tips on the “best stocks” to purchase.  He pulled his money out immediately and markets crashed days later.  This is what I mean by “shoe shine boys” – These people are a litmus test or warning signal for smarter observers.  They represent a focal point of blind optimism and arrogance within our society. They are one of the best contrarian indicators of what you should be doing in the face of a crisis.

The highway patrolman and the hardware store cashier are the same people that will be raging a month from now about how they can’t find anything they want at the grocery store and how they can barely leave the house because of the pandemic spread.  They are the same people that will be demanding handouts from others two months from now when the supply chain has completely broken down.  All they had to do was stock extra supplies of goods they normally use anyway, but they are more interested in being the “smartest guys in the room”.

This past week, government welfare leach Elon Musk decided to do some pandering for his globalist masters with a Tweet about how “coronavirus panic is dumb”. The special guest attendee of the World Government Summit knows full well what all this is about. It is the job of gatekeepers like him to try to convince the public to be as inactive as possible in the face of a legitimate threat. It’s not only about the virus, which Musk has no understanding of whatsoever; it’s also about the economic collapse that is occurring in the background of the pandemic.

How much do you want to bet that Musk has a grand emergency bunker of his own in case the worst happens?  Most of his elitist buddies have them.  But you trying to prepare?  You’re dumb and panicky…

What we are witnessing is not panic, it is preparedness, and on a relatively subdued scale at that. People stockpiling essentials for emergency situations is something that should be an American mainstay – a way of life. Already the phrase “hoarders” is being used in the media to label such people, so you can see where this is all headed.

When REAL panic ensues you will know it. When the public can’t find an open grocery store, then you will see panic. When there are checkpoints in and out of major metropolitan areas stopping people from leaving if they have any symptoms of illness, then you will see panic. When Covid-19 continues to circulate through the population for a year or more and does not disappear during the summer months as some people theorize, get ready for anger and panic.  When your local banks announce a financial “holiday” for an unspecified amount of time because of a credit crisis and lack of liquidity, and all the ATMs are shut down, then you will see panic.  When crime rates explode because of lack of supplies and people start fighting over access to the meager food lines at FEMA camps, THAT will be panic.

And don’t think for a second that this is not possible in this country, because it absolutely is. All it takes is for the global supply chain to break down for one month and there will be chaos like nothing the average person has seen in their lives.

Examples are already starting to materialize.

A reader of mine with inside information on Walmart corporate office decisions has recently told me that individual Walmart stores will no longer be able to order stock from warehouses (distribution centers); they will still be sent trucks randomly, and those trucks will only carry what the warehouses happen to have on hand at the time. In other words, Walmart stores will soon have huge holes in their inventories due to the supply chain breakdown.

This might be limited only to Walmart, but I suspect not. The supply chain crisis will probably develop slowly relative to the pandemic situation, in the span of a couple of months, but there are certain items that will disappear rather quickly. For example, there is a legitimate threat of a drought in medicines and pharmaceuticals in the US as Chinese manufacturing has not come back on line. There are also concerns that China may “weaponize” US dependence on their medical manufacturing and deliberately withhold shipments. I would stock any essential medications and over the counter drugs you might need now.

If you want to see real panic, just wait until the nearly 50% of Americans on at least one medication can no longer get their prescriptions filled. Wait until people who are physically dependent on their supply of insulin or heart medication can’t get any.  This is not a joke.  It is not something to sneer at or look down our noses at.

My purpose here is not to frighten readers, but to put things in perspective and prepare you for what is coming. Lack of toilet paper in Costco is a minor inconvenience.  Empty grocery stores and unfulfilled prescriptions is a nightmare.

The way to deal with this is simple – Prepare Now. Don’t listen to frauds like Elon Musk or the mainstream media when they accuse you of being a “hoarder” just for stocking supplies you would have normally purchased and used anyway over a longer period of time. There are only two reasons to discourage the public from prepping for a disaster:

1) Because the establishment is packed with idiots that do not like people breaking with the status quo and they want to maintain the illusion that all is well even at the expense of human lives.

2) Because the establishment wants to keep the masses as unprepared as possible so that as the disaster accelerates they will be unprepared and desperate, and thus easier to control with promises of government “aid” when the time comes.

Take your pick. I’m not sure which one is worse, but given the evidence of past elitist engineered crisis I’m going to say #2 is the true reason behind all of this.  As I predicted in my article ‘The Psychological Warfare Of Economic Collapse’, published in 2018:

“Forcing the public to embrace worldwide centralization would require several measures. First, the current system, which as stated is designed to fail, would have to be allowed to crash. Second, the crash would have to be blamed on someone other than the globalists and their ideology of globalism. Third, philosophical opponents of globalism (i.e., conservatives, nationalists and decentralization activists) would have to be demonized or eliminated so that the globalists can build their new world order without opposition. Fourth, the population would need to be sufficiently traumatized to the point of psychological submission and desperation, so that when the new system is introduced, they will be grateful for it, thus preventing future rebellion by making the public a willing cooperator in their own enslavement…”

And, as I noted in my article ‘Globalists Only Need One More Major Event To Finish Sabotaging The Economy’, the Everything Bubble has been so precariously inflated that any freeze in liquidity will bring it tumbling down.  That event has now happened and we are witnessing the implosion of the bubble in real time.

The goal here is to conjure maximum chaos. This is why the mainstream media, the White House, the CDC and the WHO have all been consistently downplaying the pandemic threat until the past week. This is why they are now trying to “shame” people who go out and prepare by accusing them of “panic” and calling them “hoarders”. This is about keeping the public in check and immobile until the REAL panic happens, and by then it will be too late for them.

I want to commend the people who stuck with me and the message of preparedness for the past several years despite the ever present “skeptics” and naysayers.  We were right, they were wrong.  A collapse on a national or international level was not a “paranoid” fear – it was happening in stages under the surface, and all of you were smart enough to see it coming.  But now comes the hard part; how to respond?

Be sure to surround yourself with other prepared people of like mind.  Be sure you are not surrounded by the shoe-shine boys who will claim they are entitled to what you have.  Don’t support martial law and the subjugation of constitutional liberties no matter what rationale the establishment gives.  They were the people that dismissed the pandemic threat for at least two months, they are not to be trusted now.  Finally, understand that survival is a means to an end, it is not the only goal.  The job of maintaining the principles of freedom for future generations falls on our shoulders now.  This is far more important than mere survival.

For now, just make sure you have your preps squared away.  My rule is, always plan for the worst case scenario. This is why I am not personally “panicked” by the Covid 19 crisis. This is why many people I know are not particularly panicked. One does not panic when one is prepared.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

end
Mac Slavo is right;  the virus will bankrupt more people than it kills.  I believe as does Slavo that they must eliminate the income tax systme
special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:
(courtesy Mac Slavo)

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE VIRUS WILL BANKRUPT MORE PEOPLE THAN IT KILLS

Mac Slavo
March 12th, 2020
SHTFplan.com
Comments (2)

The real crisis of the coronavirus is that it’s going to bankrupt more people than it kills, especially in the United States. Household debt has skyrocketed in the years following the Great Recession, putting many at risk for a financial disaster.

Businesses are shutting doors and closing shop to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.  But this in itself is a disaster for many who live paycheck to paycheck, which is almost 80% of Americans. Not to mention household debt in the U.S. reached a record of $14 trillion in February during the coronavirus’ spread around the globe.

COVID-19’s economic danger is exponentially greater than its health risks to the public. If the virus does directly affect your life, it is most likely to be through stopping you from going to work, forcing your employer to make you redundant, or bankrupting your business. According to the Independent, that’s the main concern.

It is difficult to imagine Italy not entering a recession (the world’s ninth-largest economy is now on lockdown). It is also difficult to imagine that failing to affect Europe and its largest trading partner, the United States. And it is impossible to see how any of this will not add up to a global downturn unless governments step in faster and harder than they did 12 years ago during the last financial crisis –The Independent

The U.S. already dropped interest rates, and that hasn’t stemmed the bleeding. But lowering interest rates hasn’t caused people to spend more money. It usually spikes mortgage refinances, however. The Trump administration has floated the idea of cutting taxes, which would help.  But only if that is swift and deep.  Any tax cut that’s too small to make a noticeable difference right away won’t save the economy either.

NBC News reported that Trump’s proposal was, in fact, ok, but not great, for anyone working. His plan would eliminate the payroll tax for the remainder of the year. That means you’d get to keep a mere 6.2% more of your own money for the rest of 2020. Payroll taxes, which are distinct from income taxes, are paid by both employers and employees, with workers paying 6.2 percent of their salaries up to $137,000 to fund Social Security and employers matching that amount. The cut applies only to those who get paychecks, so it would provide little relief to people who are laid off as a result of an economic downturn.

Small businesses, in particular, are struggling as supply chains dry up, leaving them without products or essential materials. Factory closures in China have led to a record low in the country’s Purchasing Manager’s Index which measures manufacturing output. China is the world’s largest exporter and is responsible for a third of global manufacturing, so China’s problem is everyone’s problem — even in the midst of a trade war between the White House and Beijing.  The Independent

What Trump really needs to do is eliminate the Federal income tax.  Again, small cuts won’t help the average person at this point and won’t be noticeable to give the economy a boost.  Any money that is yours that you get to keep and isn’t stolen from you is at least some help, however.  Americans are overtaxed anyway.

The economic problems may be only beginning and the coronavirus may finally be the event to pop the everything bubble. 

end

CATERPILLAR/GLOBAL SALES/BELLWETHER STOCK

Bellwether stock caterpillar plunges the most in 3 years as the pandemic paralyzes heavy industries

(zerohedge)

Caterpillar Machine Sales Plunge Most In Three Years As Pandemic Paralyzes Heavy Industries

Just in case the world needed yet another confirmation the world’s manufacturing industries, primarily construction and mining, are grinding to a halt, it got one late on Thursday when Caterpillar reported that in February its global machine sales suffered their biggest drop since December 2016.

The report, which covers the first full month when the coronavirus pandemic paralyzed China’s economy and was rapidly spreading across the rest of the world “underlines how the coronavirus outbreak is putting a drag on the industries that Caterpillar supplies” according to Bloomberg. While the North American region posted another double digit drop, declining from -11% in January to -12% in February, it was Asia that was hit the hardest, tumbling from a modest, -2% drop in January to a whopping -17% in February, the biggest decline in four years.

As Bloomberg further notes, the downbeat mood in the heavy manufacturing industry permeated ConExpo, the largest construction convention in North America. In remarks at the Las Vegas gathering this week, which surprisingly has not been canceled, Caterpillar CEO Jim Umpleby said the coronavirus hasn’t yet caused major supply snags, and the company was focusing on executing the plan set in place when he first took over as CEO. In other words, the real fall in retail sales is yet to come, and may be why Umpleby didn’t offer much detail on how the worldwide move to stamp out the virus will change prospects for the business.

“Our guidance was based on the best information that we had at the time, and if we have any changes to that we’ll do it when we put out our first-quarter results,” Umpleby told Bloomberg in an interview. Translation: expect CAT to pull its entire 2020 guidance in the coming days.

Fears about the virus’s impact on global growth have helped send shares of the economic bellwether down 38% this year, off to its worst start since 2009.

But the worst is yet to come, because the coronavirus is not even the company’s biggest threat: the sudden Saudi oil price war is. CAT reported that oil and gas retail sales fell just 3% (a sixth straight month of declines in the segment), however with the industry now frozen with virtually no new exploration for the foreseeable future, we expect this CAT vertical to plummet to zero next month. Trying to put some lipstick on the pig, CFO Andrew Bonfield said Wednesday that oil-market tumult from the past week will impact the oil and gas business, but said that it’s still too early to tell how strong that may be.

END

SIMON BLACK

food for thought as to what is going to happen

((courtesy Simon Black)

Simon Black: Just How Bad Will It Get?

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

We certainly live in extraordinary times.

Even people who have been irrationally dismissive of the Corona pandemic up until this point finally had to wake up and smell reality yesterday. The NBA. Tom Hanks. European travel ban.

Our human brains, while magnificent and inspiring, are also wired in bizarre ways. We’re filled with countless ‘cognitive biases’ which affect our judgment, usually for the worse.

Among them is that human beings often cannot accept the possibility that tomorrow could be radically different than today.

Things that were completely unthinkable just a few days ago have now happened. And pretty much everything is on the table right now.

So I wanted to spend a bit of time today thinking through some potential outcomes that might have seemed inconceivable before this outbreak.

I’m not suggesting these are foregone conclusions. But they’re definitely possible.

1) Supply chains will break down

Nearly everything you buy at the store or online is the result of a ridiculously complex, global system of commerce, finance, and logistics.

This computer that I’m using right now was sourced from hundreds of different materials—plastics, metals, etc. that were mined and produced from dozens of places. The component parts were manufactured by different suppliers, assembled in China, and transported on boats and trucks to wholesalers, retailers, etc.

The whole process involves countless people, dozens of companies, and thousands upon thousands of miles.

This system works great under normal conditions. But it’s not resilient. It’s unable to cope with severe global shocks like we’re seeing now.

I think we could see (and are already seeing) factory workers stop coming to work. Mail delivery could be curtailed. Or just imagine there’s an outbreak at an Amazon Fulfilment Center, and the company goes down to minimal staffing.

All of this will have an impact in the smooth production and delivery of goods around the world.

I don’t think we’ll have any sort of Mad Max shortages. But the virus effect could likely create scarcity, especially for anything that’s manufactured outside of your home country.

2) Rationing and Export Prohibition

Countries will become increasingly protectionist, especially with critical items like masks and medicine. We’ve already seen the German government blocking a shipment of 240,000 face masks to Switzerland.

And demand for several items is going to skyrocket. You might have heard about the toilet paper heists across Asia, or fistfights breaking out in Australia over antibacterial cleansers.

Here’s a photo that a friend sent to me a few hours ago of the hand sanitizer section at Walgreens– almost empty.

This isn’t going to stand for very long before the companies themselves start to limit purchases, or governments impose full-blown rationing. And that leads to…

3) Some people will become totally unglued. Others will be saints.

Let’s be honest— there’s already so much anger in the world. Strikes, riots, protests, Twitter rants… even armed thugs in the streets (Antifa) physically assaulting people with ideological differences.

Introduce a little bit of scarcity into all that anger and a few people will become totally unhinged.

Just think about how violent some shoppers can be on Black Friday, punching each other’s lights out in Wal Mart for the last big screen TV on special.

At the same time, this pandemic also has the potential to bring out the best in people. And countless others will be at their very best: respectful, generous, and responsible.

4) Curfews and martial law.

This one is extremely realistic right now given that we already saw martial law in China, and it’s happening in Europe now too.

It could easily happen in the US, with state governments deploying the national guard to enforce curfews, or even the federal government deploying the military to keep the peace. It already happened in New York state, and we could see a lot more of it soon.

5) The Federal Reserve intervenes directly in the stock market, cuts rates below zero

It’s not remotely unprecedented for a central bank to buy stocks. Central banks in places like Japan and Switzerland took their total equity holdings to more than a trillion dollars last year.

And it’s totally reasonable that the Fed begins printing money again and buying stocks directly to prop up financial markets.

I do think that negative interest rates are nearly a foregone conclusion. The Fed’s headline interest rate is already as low as 1.5%, and the real economic impact of the Corona Virus hasn’t even been felt yet.

Just imagine how low they’ll go once people start losing their jobs. They won’t be bound by zero for long.

6) Some incredible discoveries and developments will come out of this

I’ve written this several times before—the world is not coming to an end. But I think it’s reasonable to assume that all of our lives are going to be a lot quieter and simpler for the next few months. No big outings, no big trips, and a lot of time at home with the family.

And that’s going to be whatever we make of it.

Back in the mid-1600s after an outbreak of the Bubonic Plague (more than 300 years after it originally surfaced in Europe), the University of Cambridge made the decision to close its doors for TWO YEARS in an effort to reduce the spread of the plague.

Isaac Newton had just completed his degree at the time. But his budding academic career had to be put on hold because of the university’s closure.

So he threw himself into independent study, retiring to a small farmhouse where he spent the next two years developing calculus, optics, and gravitational theory.

In other words, some of Isaac Newton’s most profound and lasting work came from his own quiet period.

*  *  *

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

end
And Michael Snyder weighs in as to what to expect
(Michael Snyder)

Get Ready For Your Lifestyle To Change Indefinitely Because Of This Coronavirus Pandemic

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Fear of the coronavirus is causing shutdowns on a global scale like we have never seen before.  Just about every major sporting event that you can think of has been either canceled or postponed, schools and universities are keeping students away, global tourism is absolutely collapsing, churches are being shuttered, conferences and festivals are being taken off the calendar, businesses are asking workers to work from home, and even Disneyland is being closed down.  Over the past several days the wave of closings and cancellations has become an avalanche, and all of our lifestyles are going to be dramatically altered for the foreseeable future.

For the first few days, a lot of people are actually going to enjoy this “free vacation”.  After all, what kid doesn’t enjoy time off from school, and there are lots of Americans that relish the opportunity to work from home.

But as the weeks drag on and the economy grinds to a standstill, this “free vacation” will start evolving into a horror show.

The more this coronavirus spreads, the more restrictions we will see on human interaction throughout the western world, and that has very serious implications.

Yes, there is much that we can do through the Internet today, but most economic activity still requires at least some actual human interaction.  So when authorities restrict human interaction they are actually choking off trade.

I can’t think of too many other things that could trigger an economic collapse faster than a global pandemic could.  We had better pray that life will get back to normal in a few weeks, because a complete and utter economic nightmare is ahead if that does not happen.

Unfortunately, life is not likely to get back to normal any time soon.  The number of confirmed cases continues to grow at an exponential rate, and those that are getting infected now will be able to infect others for weeks to come

Researchers looking at cases in China say patients could spread the virus for up to 37 days after they start showing symptoms, according to the study published in the British medical journal The Lancet.

On average, survivors still had the virus in their respiratory system for about 20 days and could presumably continue to spread the disease, researchers found.

So how long will it be before this pandemic is finally over?

Will it be months?

Could it be years?

Don’t forget, the Spanish Flu pandemic lasted from January 1918 to December 1920.

I think that Wall Street is starting to grasp the reality of what we are potentially facing.  On Thursday, we witnessed the largest single day stock market point crash in American history.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2,352 points, and that shattered the “old record” of 2,013 points that was just set on Monday.  Overall, the Dow was down 9.99 percent, and that was the biggest percentage decline since the nightmarish stock market crash of 1987.

Incredibly, European stocks did even worse on Thursday.  In fact, it was the worst day ever for stock markets in Europe.

We have never seen a time when the entire western world has been in the process of literally shutting down simultaneously.  The following is how a Slate article described what we are currently witnessing…

Virtually every activity that entails or facilitates in-person human interaction seems to be in the midst of a total meltdown as the coronavirus outbreak erases Americans’ desire to travel. The NBA, NHL, and MLB have suspended their seasons. Austin’s South by Southwest canceled this year’s festival and laid off a third of its staff. Amtrak says bookings are down 50 percent and cancelations are up 300 percent; its CEO is asking workers to take unpaid time off. Hotels in San Francisco are experiencing vacancy rates between 70 and 80 percent. Broadway goes dark on Thursday night. The CEOs of Southwest and JetBlue have both compared the impact of COVID-19 on air travel to 9/11. (That was before President Trump banned air travel from Europe on Wednesday night.) Universities, now emptying their campuses, have never tried online learning on this scale. White-collar companies like Amazon, Apple, and the New York Times (and Slate!) are asking employees to work from home for the foreseeable future.

On top of everything else, March Madness has been canceled for the first time ever

The NCAA will not crown a men’s or women’s basketball champion in 2020.

Conceding defeat to the COVID-19 virus and a cascade of uncertainty about how bad its ongoing spread might impact public health across the United States, the NCAA announced Thursday all its winter and spring championships have been canceled after a series of moves across multiple sports leagues that foreshadowed the eventual arrival at this decision.

I can’t even imagine the heartbreak that many of those athletes are feeling right now.

They have been training all of their lives to fight for a championship, and now that opportunity has been taken away.

Sadly, just about every major sporting event has either been canceled or will be canceled shortly.

Of course the business world has been thrown into chaos as well.  Companies all across America are going to great lengths to minimize human interaction, and all sorts of non-essential activities are being eliminated.

Even a New York seminar entitled “Doing Business Under Coronavirus” has been canceled because of the coronavirus.

In the days ahead, the list of public gatherings that are still happening will probably be much shorter than the list of public gatherings that have been canceled.

All of this is being done to save lives.

But in the process, it is going to absolutely kill the economy.

At this point, President Trump is even thinking about imposing “travel restrictions within the United States”

REPORTER: Are you considering travel restrictions within the United States, such as to Washington State or California? [Emphasis added]

TRUMP: We haven’t discussed that yet. Is it a possibility? Yes. If somebody gets a little bit out of control, if an area gets too hot. You see what they’re doing in New Rochelle, which is — which is good, frankly. It’s the right thing. But then it’s not enforced, it’s not very strong but people know that they’re being watched … New Rochelle, that’s a hotspot.

Can you imagine the giant temper tantrum that we would see if that actually happened?

Earlier today, the top headline on CNN was “America’s way of life changes indefinitely”, and for once they got it exactly right.

As long as this virus is spreading out of control, decision makers all over the western world are going to be afraid to resume normal activities.

Just think about it.  If you are a decision maker and you resume normal operations too quickly, someone could get sick and die.  Not only could that cost you your job, but it could also get you sued into oblivion.

In our overly litigious society, the threat of lawsuits is going to play a major factor in this crisis.  In fact, I am sure that some people are already in contact with their lawyers.

Hopefully the measures that are being taken will help to reduce the spread of this virus.  But as one of my good friends has pointed out, even if the U.S. was totally locked down for 30 days, this virus would just keep coming back into the U.S. from other countries that are not locked down.

So the truth is that we would need the entire globe to be completely locked down for an extended period of time to really defeat this pandemic, and that simply is not going to happen.

Many among the elite can see what is happening, and they are taking off in their private jets to their “holiday homes or specially prepared disaster bunkers”

Like hundreds of thousands of people across the world, the super-rich are preparing to self-isolate in the face of an escalation in the coronavirus crisis. But their plans extend far beyond stocking up on hand sanitiser and TV boxsets.

The world’s richest people are chartering private jets to set off for holiday homes or specially prepared disaster bunkers in countries that, so far, appear to have avoided the worst of the Covid-19 outbreak.

Of course most of us do not have that option.

Most of us are going to have to ride this thing out right where we are, and that reality is causing a lot of people to completely panic.  Just check out what is happening in New York

Panicked New Yorkers rushed to stock up on essentials forming long lines and clearing shelves of produce as Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency in the city due the coronavirus outbreak.

He made the decision on Thursday afternoon saying the last 24 hours had been ‘very, very sobering’ and that the world had been turned ‘upside down’ in just a day.

The announcement immediately sparked furious panic shopping from New Yorkers as grocery stores across the city saw chaos and frantic stockpiling with residents fearing the worst.

Sadly, this is just the beginning.

As things go from bad to worse, we are likely to see fear and panic on a scale that is absolutely unprecedented.

But as I discussed yesterday, now is not a time for fear.

During any major crisis, cool heads and calm hearts are needed.  The days ahead are going to be full of challenges, and by God’s grace we shall do our very best to meet those challenges.

CANADA
Next  up, the Bank of Canada announces a 50 basis rate cut and the Fin Min unveils a 10 billion dollar support program
(zerohedge)

Bank of Canada Announces Emergency 50bps Rate Cut, As FinMin Unveils C$10BN Support Program

After a day of relentless central bank interventions across Asia and Europe, which jumped the Atlantic this morning when the Fed announced not one but 6 emergency QE POMOs, moments ago Canada joined the panic response, when the Bank of Canada announced an emergency 50bps rate cut, lowering the overnight rate from 1.25% to 0.75%, generally in line with the market’s expectations.

According to the central bank, “this unscheduled rate decision is a proactive measure taken in light of the negative shocks to Canada’s economy arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent sharp drop in oil prices.

The BOC maintained its easing bias, stating that it stood ready to adjust monetary policy further if required, while it dropped the reference in its January statement which stated policy was at an appropriate level. In its policy statement, the Bank said that while the economy had been operating close to potential, with inflation at target, the virus is a “material” negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks; business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted, reflective in CAD and commodities, the statement noted.

The BOC also believes that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate further, which will depress activity. In light of all these developments, the central bank said that the outlook was clearly weaker now than it was in January.

 

Finally, the Bank said it “has also taken steps to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity.”

Some more details from the announcement:

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 percent and the deposit rate is ½ percent. This unscheduled rate decision is a proactive measure taken in light of the negative shocks to Canada’s economy arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent sharp drop in oil prices.

It is clear that the spread of the coronavirus is having serious consequences for Canadian families, and for Canada’s economy. In addition, lower prices for oil, even since our last scheduled rate decision on March 4, will weigh heavily on the economy, particularly in energy intensive regions.

The Bank will provide a full update of its outlook for the Canadian and global economies on April 15. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.

The Bank has also taken steps to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity. These additional measures have been announced in separate notices on the Bank’s website. The Bank is closely monitoring economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities.

Separately, Canada’s finance minister said Canada is ready to take extraordinary measures to combat the COVID-19 outbreak, and to that purpose, Canada will establish credit support program to provide additional C$10 billion to businesses and stimulate the economy.

In response to the BOC announcement and modest fiscal stimulus, the Canadian dollar initially dropped but quickly regained all losses as the market was expecting the rate cut anyway, with money markets pricing in around 40bps worth of easing.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil Surges After Trump Orders DOE To Fill Up Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Amid the panic buying surge in the last 30 minutes of trading, sparked by Trump’s national emergency declaration, oil has soared higher after Trump said that he has asked the energy department to buy “large quantities of oil” for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and to “fill it right to the top.”

With the reserve currently 635MM barrels full, that means there is over 90 million barrels that will soon be purchased by the US to fill up the SPR.

And since Trump’s demand means that there will be a forced buyer even as OPEC is an aggressive seller, oil quick spiked with WTI & Brent surging to session highs, boosting the energy sector and leading to an extension of gains in equities, while also helping the petro-currencies such as CAD, RUB, MXN catch a bid.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA/CORONAVIRUS

India records its first coronavirus death. For those of you who think that warmer weather will kill the virus guerss again

(zerohedge)

First Coronavirus Death Confirmed In India

In another major milestone for the global coronavirus outbreak, India, the world’s second-most-populous country with a population of roughly 1.3 million people, has confirmed its first death from Covid-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus.

The BBC reports, the 76-year-old man, from the southern state of Karnataka, returned from Saudi Arabia on Feb. 29 after a month-long visit. People who have had contact with the man, who died on Tuesday, are being traced and quarantined, according to the state’s health minister.

So far, India has 73 confirmed cases of the virus, the ministry said. Though the man died on Tuesday evening, the results of his diagnosis were only made public on Thursday.

 

Saudi Arabia has embraced a more heavy handed approach to suppressing the outbreak in the country by banning visiting (suspending Muslim pilgrimmages) and quarantining neighborhoods. The man, who recently returned to India after spending 1 month in KSA, was screened at the airport when he returned on Feb. 29, but he had no symptoms.

He was eventually taken to the hospital after having “difficulties” last week.

The southern state of Karnataka, where the man lived and died, has banned all gatherings including weddings, sports events and conferences for a week as Indian authorities attempt to slow the spread of the virus.

Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa declared that all malls, movie theaters, pubs and night clubs have also been shut.

“The government will decide on further action after a week following a review,” Yediyurappa announced on Friday.

According to the Economic Times, 46 people who had been in direct contact with the 76-year-old man have been placed under quarantine.

Earlier in India, seven people in Agra, two in Ghaziabad and one each in Noida and Lucknow have now tested positive for coronavirus, bringing the country’s case total to 75.

Under PM Narendra Modi, the Indian government has taken a number of steps to halt the spread of Covid-19:

  • All visas, barring a select few categories, have been suspended for a month
  • Visa-free travel afforded to overseas citizens of the country has been suspended until 15 April and even those allowed in could be subject to 14 days of quarantine.
  • Schools, colleges and movie theatres in the capital, Delhi, have been shut until 31 March
  • The Indian Premier League (IPL), featuring nearly 60 foreign players and scheduled to begin on 29 March, has been postponed to 15 April
  • Two one-day cricket matches between India and South Africa will be played behind closed doors.

India’s health ministry says it was among the first countries in the world to prepare for an outbreak of the respiratory illness, and denied allegations that it was slow in testing suspected cases.

However, many public health experts worry that India won’t be able to contain an uncontrolled community outbreak since it lacks the ability to impose mass quarantines like they did in China.

END

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1174 DOWN .0056 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.75 UP 2.087 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2514   DOWN   0.0056  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3831 DOWN .0116 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 6 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1174 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 36.06 POINTS OR 1.23% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 276.16 POINTS OR 1.14%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 4,09%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 276.16 POINTS OR 1.14%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.06 POINTS OR 1.23%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 4.09% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1128.58  POINTS OR 6.08%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1582.30

silver:$15.67-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.95% !!! UP 16 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.61 UP 18  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.90 UP 43 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.82% UP 13 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  UP 5   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.59%//UP 13 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,80 UP 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 119 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.54% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.34% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1080  DOWN     .0104 or 104 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.38 UP 3.71 OR YEN DOWN 371  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2325 DOWN .0246 POUND DOWN 246  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 109 basis points to 1.3836

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0082    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  67.0210  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  56.3332 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 20 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.99 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 21.56 UP 13 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.74 UP 127  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 128.63  2.46%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 70.95 POINTS OR .77%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 74.10 POINTS OR 1.83%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 238.70 POINTS or 3.73%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 1059.85 POINTS OR 7.13%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 31.84 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil:  35.33 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    72.30  THE CROSS LOWER BY 2.60 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 260 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.54 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  31.84//

 

 

BRENT : 35.33

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.99 UP 20 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.56 UP 13 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1080 ( DOWN 104   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.38 UP  3.71 (YEN DOWN 371 BASIS POINTS/

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.74 UP 127 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2325 DOWN 246  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.3332

 

 

 

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.54%

 

The Dow closed UP 1980.59 POINTS OR 9.54%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 672.43 POINTS OR 9.43%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.302%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

FOR THE WEEK:

US Equity Market Crashes Below 2007 Highs Despite Massive Surge On Trump Stimulus Plan

Today saw the biggest spike in US equities since October 2008 after an avalanche of intervention in the last 24 hours across the world and extended by 1600 Dow points as Trump unveiled his stimulus/testing plan…

But, overall, the market just suffered its fastest, most aggressive collapse into a bear market… ever…

But even more ominously, the broadest measure of the US equity market – The NYSE Composite Index – has collapsed below the 2007 highs (despite trillions in added liquidity)…

Ray Dalio nailed the top…

We’re sorry but no clip better serves as an analogy for this Minsky Moment than this one…

US equity markets ended the week on a stronger note, big gains overnight (limit up in futures), a plunge at the cash open, only to rebound when rumors hit that the President would declare a National Emergency (implicitly some fiscal largesse) and when he announced his plans, the market went vertical… this was the best day for stocks since 10/28/08…

This was the market’s worst week since Oct 2008, but Small Caps’ 20% crash this week is the worst since 1987 (Small Caps’ 3-week plunge of 30% is the worst ever)

European stocks were hit hard this week too (Italy down over 23% on the week – worst week in history)…

Source: Bloomberg

And even Chinese stocks sold off with ChiNext hit hardest…

Source: Bloomberg

Direct-Virus-impacted sectors were monkeyhammered this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks were battered (but bounced today)…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX surged higher this week at an unprecedented pace, closing near record highs…

The VIX term structure collapsed to its most inverted since Lehman this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Investment Grade credit crashed this week – by our record this is the biggest weekly spread decompression in history…

Source: Bloomberg

HY credit risk also exploded this week – again the biggest weekly decompression in our datasets…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds were dumped unceremoniously this week…

Source: Bloomberg

As Risk-Parity Funds saw the biggest deleveraging losses in history…

Bonds suffered a total bloodbath this week – despite the collapse in stocks, with the end of day seeing a melt-up in rates…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y yields exploded higher this week after Sunday night’s crash to record lows. Today saw 30Y spike to 1.79% intraday before tumbling back to 1.39% on the Fed’s emergency QE today…

Source: Bloomberg

After collapsing to 69bps on Sunday night/Monday morning, this week’s blowout on yields is the biggest ever…

Source: Bloomberg

But most worryingly, the Bond ETF world really started to break as massive, unprecedented discounts occurred in Treasury, Muni, and HY Credit ETFs exposing the illiquidity of the underlying assets…

Source: Bloomberg

In Munis, the SEC restricted short-sales in the ETF to try and maintain some order – it failed.

Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave bond land, we note that CMBX crashed back towards its lows as virus anxiety impacting malls and the credit collapse combine to benefit Carl Icahn’s short…

Source: Bloomberg

And the market is now demanding practically 1 full percentage point cut in rates next week by The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar was massively bid this week as it appears key safe-haven flows – and liquidity demands – sparked a ‘sell-everything-else’ trade worldwide… (3 days this week were the biggest daily gains in the dollar since Nov 2016)

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest weekly gain for the dollar since Oct 2008 (Lehman)…

Source: Bloomberg

Japanese Yen had its worst week since Nov 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the worst week for cryptos since April 2013 – a total bloodbath (yes, Bitcoin Cash is down over 50% this week)…

 

With Bitcoin crashing below $4,000 intraday

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in the dollar this week did not help but commodities were clubbed like baby seals as it seemed someone was mass liquidating everything in a scramble for cash…

Source: Bloomberg

This was WTI’s worst week since Dec 2008 (and biggest 3-week drop ever)…

Gold suffered its worst week since Sept 2011, smashed back below $1600…

Silver also saw its worst week since Sept 2011…

And perhaps the most stunning moves were in precious metals among all this chaos as gold slumped into the red for the year and high-flying palladium was destroyed…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this was the worst weekly loss for a ‘diversified’ book of bonds and stocks since Lehman…

Source: Bloomberg

And, if you’re wondering where this ends, it’s simple – below 2,000 for the S&P 500… as the last five years of equity market gains have been total delusion…

Source: Bloomberg

And if you thought The Fed’s Trillion-dollar-plus care-package helped… it didn’t! FRA-OIS spreads continued to blow out, strongly suggesting massive dollar shortages and/or fear of systemic bank credit risks

Source: Bloomberg

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA (EARLY)//before German announcement

Global Liquidation Resumes: Japan Jolted, Crypto Collapses, China Crushed

It is becoming clearer and clearer that the utter carnage going on in global markets appears to be some massive fund force-liquidating as every asset-class is getting destroyed despite jawboning from The Fed (as well as massive liquidity injections), ECB, Bank of Korea, Bank of Japan, and various politicians around the world.

After today’s carnage in US and Europe…

Things are getting worse…

 

Dow futures are down over 400 points… (down 2300 points from the fed spike highs)

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 10%, the biggest daily drop since the Tsunami almost exactly 9 years ago. This is Japan’s worst week since 2008

Chinese stocks are finally catching down to reality…

But are still massively outperforming US and Europe since the virus hit..

Elsewhere in Asia – total bloodbath:

  • *AUSTRALIA’S BENCHMARK ASX 200 INDEX FALLS 8%
  • *PHILIPPINES STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO 10.4%
  • *HANG SENG INDEX FUTURES EXTEND DROP TO 8%
  • *SGX NIFTY INDEX FUTURES DROP AS MUCH AS 9.6% IN SINGAPORE
  • *KOREA 10-YEAR BOND FUTURES DROP BY MOST SINCE AT LEAST 2011
  • *S. KOREA KOSDAQ TRADING HALTED AFTER INDEX DROPS MORE THAN 8%

Asian FX markets are crashing…

Yuan continues to plummet…

Cryptos are utterly collapsing – this is the worst 2 day drop for Bitcoin since April 2013…and it’s crashing on the heaviest volume since Feb 2018

Crushing the cryptocurrency back to one-year lows…

Gold is also getting flushed…

And gold is getting dumped against yen too – BoJ in da house?

But bonds are bid. 10Y Yield are down 15bps – which looks like nothing on this chart after such a colossal week…

So much for that promise of trillions of dollars of liquidity?

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/this morning

this will not help:  the NY Fed announces an emergency QE 6 to buy 33 billion dollars worth of bonds as yields tumble

(zerohedge)

NY Fed Announces Emergency QE, Will Buy $33BN In Bonds; Yields Tumble

US Treasury yields are plunging after The Fed announced what amounts to ‘Emergency QE’ to buy $33 billion in bonds at maturities up to 30 Years…

10Y yields have plunged 16bps on the headline…

And 30Y yields are now down 3bps on the day, after being up 35bps overnight…

FRBNY Statement Details:

The Desk will conduct purchases in each of five maturity sectors below at the times indicated, subject to reasonable prices.

  • 20 to 30 year sector at 10:30 – 10:45 am and 2:15 to 2:45 pm for around $4 billion each
  • 7 to 20 year sector at 11:15 – 11:30 am  for around $5 billion
  • 4.5 to 7 year sector at 12:00 – 12:15 pm for around $8 billion
  • 2.25 to 4.5 year sector at 12:45 – 1:00 pm for around $8 billion
  • 0 to 2.25 year sector at 1:30 – 1:45 pm for around $8 billion

These purchases are intended to address highly unusual disruptions in the market for Treasury securities associated with the coronavirus outbreak.  These purchases are part of the $80 billion of planned monthly purchases, including both $60 billion of reserve management purchases and $20 billion of reinvestments of principal payments received from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

end

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

JPMorgan’s chief economist Mike Feroli finally admits that the Fed has entered QE4 or QE5 take your pick  They are now buying duration

(zerohedge)

JPMorgan Capitulates: “One Could Perhaps Pedantically Argue That This Is QE”

We were right again.

On Jan 24, we wrote an article titled “The Debate Is Over: In Two Months “Not QE” Officially Becomes QE 4,” in which we wrote that by the March 18 FOMC meeting, “the Fed will need to reduce its “demand burden” on the bill market, i.e., there won’t be enough Bills available for the Fed to monetize without it distorting the market, and will extend the purchase program to include short coupons in the process officially ending any debate whether the Fed’s manipulation of the market under the guise of saving repo, is “Not QE”, because it is limited to Bills and thus no duration is taken out of the market, or is “QE 4″, in which the Fed purchases at least some coupon securities in addition to Bills.”

Not only were we right, but the transformation from Not QE to QE-4 (or QE-5, depending on how one counts), took place one week ahead of the FOMC meeting, when today as part of its massive, $1.5 trillion (with a maximum capacity of $5 trillion per month) bazooka in response to the bizarro moves in the Treasury market, the Fed announced that it would – as we predicted – expand its POMO from just Bills to all securities across the fixed income spectrum, including Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, Floating Rate Notes and, you guessed it, nominal coupons.

And just like that Not QE has become QE-4, as even JPMorgan – which for the longest time was arguing to anyone who bothered to listen that Not QE is not QE 4 and would not become QE 4 – was forced to admit today.

 

Here is JPM’s Michael Feroli admitting “since today’s announcement moves those purchases further out the curve one could perhaps pedantically argue that this is QE.” Those damn pedants.

This afternoon the Fed took two liquidity measures to support financial market functioning. The first was to redistribute its current $60 billion a month reserve management purchases of T-bills across the curve (including TIPS and FRNs) over the next month. The second was to conduct three $500 billion tranches of term repos (two for 3-months, one for 1-month) today and tomorrow. These actions were taken to address dislocations in funding markets that were impairing Treasury market functioning.

These actions are not designed to provide further economic stimulus. If the Fed wanted to provide such stimulus then it would have lowered the federal funds rate from its current 1.0%-1.25% target range. Whereas the Fed’s bill purchases were clearly not QE, since today’s announcement moves those purchases further out the curve one could perhaps pedantically argue that this is QE. Even if one bought this argument, the total size of purchases—$60 billion—is trivial compared to each of the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases.

Moreover, it would be inaccurate to describe the $1.5 trillion in repo operations as “money pumped into the system” as it is a temporary swap of reserves for government securities which will be unwound in one or three months’ time. We may well be approaching the point when the Fed turns to genuine QE (or large-scale asset purchases), but that won’t happen until the Fed sets the funds rate to zero, which should be next Wednesday at the latest.

Translation – the head JPM economist was wrong again, but we will give him some credit: Feroli – whose firm was pushing his clients into stocks as recently as two days ago – is right about one thing: genuine QE, or whatever the “non-pedants” want to call it, is coming as soon as next week, and if Yellen has her way and she will, – it will also include stocks and ETFs.

end

Wow

an official in Ohio states that Ohio already has 100,000 people infected with the coronavirus

(zerohedge)

Ohio’s Top Health Official Says “We Believe 100,000 People” Already Infected With Covid-19 In State

Ohio’s top public-health official said during a press conference on Thursday where the state’s governor announced a three-week closure of all schools in the state that her office estimates that as many as 117,000 people in the state have already been infected with the novel coronavirus.

During the press conference, a clip from which we’ve included below, Department of Health Director Amy Acton said that the virus has likely been spreading in the “community” of Ohio, and that, given the number of weeks it has likely been present, at least 1% of the state’s population likely already have the virus.

“We know now based on the basic facts of community spread we know now that at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus…We have 11.7 million people, so that just  gives you a sense of how this virus spreads, and how it’s spreading quickly,” Acton said.

She went on to explain that the “logarithmic” rate of infection means that for every person who catches the virus will likely spread it to two or three other people.

“The choices I make for me and my family may not infect us, but we could infect your grandmother,” she said.

Gov. Mike Dewine and Dr. Acton explained that they knew they were going to close the schools at some point, but by consulting with experts, they figured that now is “the sweet spot…to act”.

Doral Chenoweth@doralchenoweth

How did @GovMikeDeWine decide when to close schools? When he and @OHdeptofhealth Dr. Amy Acton thought the crisis hit the “sweet spot.” @DispatchAlerts

To put all this in context: as of Thursday evening, Ohio had five confirmed cases.

A little shaken up by Dr. Acton’s comment? Now that the doctor herself will likely go viral due to the nature of her comments in this clip, it’s only fitting for her to explain steps to keep your family coronavirus-free.

Ohio Dept of Health

@OHdeptofhealth

Curious about the steps you can take to prepare for any illness, including ? Watch this video with our director, Dr.

Amy Acton. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQn-xxdtlvk 

END
it is not the repo pool that is the problem despite the $4 trillion of available money given by the Fed yesterday.  It is the lack of dollars in the global system that is the problem…..
…..expect more turmoil
(zerohedge)

This Wasn’t Supposed To Happen: FRA/OIS Explodes Higher After Fed’s “Bazooka Repos” Misfire

Yesterday, in the aftermath of the Fed’s $1.5 trillion repo bazooka and QE4 announcement when dealers submitted a paltry $78.4 billion in securities to the Fed’s new and massively upsized $500BN 3-month repo operation, we asked if the Fed was using the wrong bazooka to fix the funding crisis, a question that was also asked by the market which tumbled shortly after the tiny repo uptake was announced, as “traders realized that what is ailing the market is not access to the Fed’s balance sheet.”

Moments ago the Fed announced the second and third results  from the newly unveiled “bazooka repos”, and they too were major duds, with Dealers obtaining just $17BN in liquidity out of the $500BN total available in the second 3-Month repo, followed shortly after by just $24.1BN in the first $500BN 1-month repo, for a total liquidity injection of just $41.1BN.

The immediate problem that emerged is that while the Fed opened up to $1.5 trillion in virtually free liquidity access for banks, they have only used $119.5 billion of it, even as financial conditions remain perplexingly tight.

In other words, the same question as yesterday: is the Fed using a liquidity bazooka to fix a problem that is not based in a malfunction in the repo market.

And the clearest indication that that’s the case came moments after the result of the first repo was announced, when the all-important FRA/OIS spread which measures scarcity of dollar liquidity in interbank and funding markets, snapped higher by 10 bps, from 68 to 78…

… suggesting that repo may not be the proper fix to whatever it is that remains broken in the market.

And if indeed the Fed is using the wrong medicine to treat whatever the underlying condition is, what now?

Well, for now stocks are happy, with the ES still limit up, but shortly whatever is the real source of the market wide funding shortage will reemerge again, and this time the market will demand the right answer from the Fed. If it does not get it, yesterday’s drop may be just a dress rehearsal for what is coming.

 

end
THEN LATE IN THE DAY:

Something Is Breaking: Fed Fails To Ease Epic Dollar Shortage As FRA/OIS Goes Parabolic

One certainly can’t blame the Fed for trying: after firing a repo “bazooka” yesterday, which could provide up to $5 trillion in monthly liquidity in exchange for eligible pledged securities, and following that up with an emergency QE operation today when the Fed announced it would buy up to $37 billion in securities across the curve from domestic and foreign banks, risk assets have staged a modest rebound after the biggest selloff since Black Monday, and the relentless selloff of Treasurys, likely prompted by historic risk parity fund unwinds, has moderated.

But where the Fed has catastrophically failed, is in addressing the most important task facing it this moment: easing the unprecedented dollar shortage which is getting worse by the minute.

Despite the barrage of central bank actions meant, more than anything, to ease bank fears that dollars will not be available when needed to rollover trillions in maturing debt, the dollar has seen a relentless surge higher, with today’s move shocking in its severity and consistency.

Yet while one can argue that the dollar is traditionally a flight to safety in times of stress, the fact that the dollar is surging today even as stocks are soaring and the Dow is about to be up 1,000 suggests that something else is going on.

That something else is the relentless move higher in the 1st IMM FRA/OIS, which was supposed to ease after today’s massive term repo operations, yet which spiked when it emerged that there was barely any usage early this morning, arguably due to regulatory limitations and concerns about liquidity coverage ratios.

As a result, the FRA/OIS, which is traditionally a closely-watched indicator of interbank dollar funding stress (the higher the spread, the worse the liquidity shortage), has inexplicably soared to 80bps, above all prior crisis levels hit in the past decade and back to levels last seen during the financial crisis.

The bottom line is that whatever the Fed is doing to inject much needed dollar liquidity, is not working.

So what should the Fed do? One possible answer comes from Zoltan Pozsar, Credit Suisse’s iconic repo market expert, who last week wrote an article on “Covid-19 and Global Dollar Funding”, which first laid out the sequence of stresses that the escalating funding crisis would take, all of which are materializing as expected…

  1. peripheral cross-currency bases (e.g., KRW/USD) as missed payments grow;
  2. €/S and $/¥ bases as reserve managers stop lending in the FX swap market, to help banks and banking systems deal with dollar outflows in their jurisdictions;
  3. U.S. dollar Libor-OIS spreads as banks start fixing their LCRs that are being damaged by outflows of operating deposits and corporate credit lines; and lastly,
  4. o/n GC repo markets as FX reserve managers and large banks are scrambling to turn collateral into cash to fund banks’ and corporate customers’ liquidity needs.

… and then concluded that his “recommendation for the Fed would be to combine rate cuts with open liquidity lines that include a pledge to use the swap lines, an uncapped repo facility and QE if necessary.

Also recall that this recommendation took place before oil prices collapsed this weekend following the Saudi oil price war, crushing the petrodollar recycling system and crippling oil exporters’ dollar funding, adding even more pressure on dollar funding. In short, the situation has only gotten far, far worse now.

END

Mnuchin states that the uSA will provide liquidity but will it be the right liquidity
(see above)

“There Will Be Liquidity, This Is Not 1987” Mnuchin Vows As He Urges Banks To Use Discount Window

We found it quite odd when, in the last week of February, JPMorgan – which just a few months earlier received a repo and “NOT E” bailout for breaking the repo market – unexpectedly said it wanted to use the discount window again in hopes of breaching the stigma associated with the Fed’s liquidity facility that is best associated with the global financial crisis. Jennifer Piepszak, JPM’s CFO and the woman who certainly was involved in the bank’s decision to drain repo markets and eventually force the Fed to inject hundreds of billions in repo and QE4 funds thus ensuring JPM’s most profitable year on record, said the bank would borrow from the discount window from time to time this year and had discussed the plan with regulators. “We think this is an important step for us to take to break the stigma here.”

Two weeks later, we now know the reason behind JPM’s bizarre push to thaw use of the discount window: speaking to CNBC on Friday morning in an attempt to boost investor spirits and lift America’s confidence, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin urged banks to use the discount window, while noting that markets are working orderly and will stay open, while promising that markets and 401(k)s will be up a year from now and that “for long-term investors, this will be a great investment opportunity”.

The Treasury secretary also said that the government wants to help airline industry, and hinted that suspending student loan payments is among steps considered.

Rudy Havenstein, one more time around might do it.@RudyHavenstein

He got a phone call while live on air and said “I have to take this call” so that part is 100% real. I guessed on the other part.

Marc Baures.@BauresMarc

Zoom in. Steve Mnuchin calling.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

More importantly, Mnuching said that “we’re very close to getting this done.” Treasury Sec. Mnuchin says negotiations between the White House and Congress on a coronavirus stimulus deal “are going very well.”

CNBC

@CNBC

“I think we’re very close to getting this done.” Treasury Sec. Mnuchin says negotiations between the White House and Congress on a coronavirus stimulus deal “are going very well.” https://cnb.cx/39Pu0aH

Embedded video

The punchline: when asked by Jim Cramer if he will guarantee to Americans that there will be liquidity in order to restore confidence, as was the case in 1987, Mnuchin said that this is not 1987, which was a “much scarier time” and he did indeed vow that “there will be liquidity available.

CNBC

@CNBC

“For long-term investors, this will be a great investment opportunity,” Treasury Sec. Mnuchin says, comparing the coronavirus sell-off with the 1987 market crash. https://cnb.cx/2TO0tIX

Embedded video

The only problem is that as today’s massively underutilized repo operations showed, it may be the wrong kind of liquidity.

Here are all the key highlights from his CNBC interview below, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • MNUCHIN SAYS WAIVERS COMING TO HELP LIMIT VIRUS IMPACT
  • MNUCHIN: MORE COMING TO BOOST LIQUIDITY
  • MNUCHIN: WE WANT TO KEEP MARKETS OPEN
  • MNUCHIN: MARKETS ARE WORKING ORDERLY
  • MNUCHIN EXPECTS ECONOMIC REBOUND BY END OF YR
  • MNUCHIN: SUSPENDING STUDENT LOAN PMTS AMONG OPTIONS CONSIDERED
  • MNUCHIN: THERE WILL BE LIQUIDITY AVAILABLE

 

end
THE  FIRST pomo was hugely oversubscribed as the Fed will do whatever it takes. This will not work as the problem is global dollar shortages and lack of collateral
(zerohedge)

First Emergency POMO Oversubscribed As Fed’s “Whatever It Takes” Moment Arrives

The result of the Fed’s first emergency POMO is out.

Less than half an hour after the NY Fed announced it would conduct six emergency POMOs staggered across the entire day on Friday, and amounting to a total of $37 billion in securities across the curve from 0 to 30 years, as per the following schedule:

  • 20 to 30 year sector at 10:30 – 10:45 am and 2:15 to 2:45 pm for around $4 billion each
  • 7 to 20 year sector at 11:15 – 11:30 am  for around $5 billion
  • 4.5 to 7 year sector at 12:00 – 12:15 pm for around $8 billion
  • 2.25 to 4.5 year sector at 12:45 – 1:00 pm for around $8 billion
  • 0 to 2.25 year sector at 1:30 – 1:45 pm for around $8 billion

… moments ago we got the result of the first POMO which targeted TSY bonds in the 20-30 year sector, and which not surprisingly was oversubscribed with $5.384BN in securities submitted for sale to the Fed, of which the maximum, or $3.999 billion was accepted.

Expect five more POMOs today, with another 20-30 year operation concluding at 2:45pm today – that much is known. What is not known is whether the Fed will be successful in calming the unprecedented lack of liquidity that is haunting what until this week was the world’s deepest and most liquid market in the world.

If it can’t, it will get awkward especially since as BMO Capital Markets’ rates strategist Jon Hill says, the Fed’s move to buy bonds all the way out to the 30-year maturity is the central bank’s “whatever it takes” moment.

“The Fed is obviously deeply concerned about Treasury market functioning and is willing to do whatever it takes to try to backstop,” Hill told Bloomberg in a call, pointing out that including cheapest-to-deliver securities – i.e., those which are targeted by RV funds, is notable as it shows policy makers adapting to circumstances on the fly to provide support.

What he really meant, is that what the Fed is doing is bailing out those macro funds which have put on Treasury basis trades on, and which without the Fed’s liquidity, would end up a catastrophic cascade of LTCM-like disasters, something we first explained in December in “”The Fed Was Suddenly Facing Multiple LTCMs”: BIS Offers A Stunning Explanation Of What Really Happened On Repocalypse Day.”

it will not help as the House is set for a vote on a coronavirus spending pkg
(zerohedge)

House Set For Friday Vote On Wuhan Coronavirus Spending Package

The House is expected to vote on an aid package in response to the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak after a deal was struck with congressional Republicans and Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, according to National Review.

The package will include guaranteed free testing and 14 days of paid sick-leave for patients, along with food assistance and Medicaid programs, unemployment benefits, and tax credits for small and medium-sized businesses affected by COVID-19. That said, “Democrats do not think payroll tax relief is an appropriate response,” according to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

Republicans initially were skeptical of the legislation due to provisions they feared would permanently increase paid leave entitlements, while Democrats did not want to include language explicitly prohibiting funding for abortions in the bill.

We’ve resolved most of our differences, and [for] those we haven’t we’ll continue the conversation, because there will obviously be other bills,” Pelosi told reporters on Thursday. –National Review

“It’s fair to say we’re close to an agreement, subject to the exchange of paper, and hope to have an agreement tomorrow,” said Pelosi, adding in a letter to lawmakers that the bill “will take further effective action that protects the health, economic security and well-being of the American people.”

Pelosi also wrote that this won’t be the last coronavirus aid package – and that Congress would “get to work on a third emergency response package that will take further effective action that protects the health, economic security and well-being of the American people.”

NR also reports that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Thursday announced that the Senate would skip recess this coming week in order to tackle coronavirus legislation.

“I am glad talks are ongoing between the Administration and Speaker Pelosi,” McConnell tweeted. “I hope Congress can pass bipartisan legislation to continue combating the coronavirus and keep our economy strong.”

Leader McConnell

@senatemajldr

Notwithstanding the scheduled state work period, the Senate will be in session next week. I am glad talks are ongoing between the Administration and Speaker Pelosi. I hope Congress can pass bipartisan legislation to continue combating the coronavirus and keep our economy strong.

That said, there may be some friction between the Democratic-controlled House’s solution and the GOP-controlled Senate’s.

Leader McConnell

@senatemajldr

Unfortunately, Speaker Pelosi’s first draft from late last night was off-base. It does not focus immediate relief on affected Americans. It proposes new bureaucracy that would only delay assistance. It wanders into policy areas that are not related to the pressing issues at hand.

Leader McConnell

@senatemajldr

Fortunately, we do not need to choose between Speaker Pelosi’s first draft and doing nothing. I am glad the Administration is continuing talks. The Senate is ready to consider a bipartisan, bicameral package if House Democrats return to the table & work with the President’s team.

end
USA/Brazil

President Bolsonaro tests positive for the virus after dining with Trump on Saturday.Likely this means the US president himself will now be closely monitored and tested, if not already.

developing…

(zerohedge)

President Bolsonaro Tests Positive After Dining With Trump Saturday: Brazilian Press

It’s officialBrazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for coronavirus, making him the highest ranking political leader in the world to get Covid-19 thus far.

It was first reported Thursday that Bolsonaro was being monitored and tested, after his press secretary Fabio Wajngarten had tested positive for the virus.

Crucially Bolsonaro along with his aide met with Donald Trump when the Brazilian delegation traveled to Mar-a-Lago on 7 March, with Bolsonaro reportedly having more contact with Trump than this aide, including a Saturday evening dinner at the resort.

 

Presidents Trump and Bolsonaro dining last Saturday at Mar-a-Lago, via the AP.

Local Brazilian media reports Bolsonaro will undergo a second COVID-19 test to confirm the first.

On Thursday some unconfirmed local reports began saying Bolsonaro had tested positive, but other sources denied what appeared premature speculation.

Journalist Glenn Greenwald writes of Friday’s breaking Brazilian newspaper reports: “A reasonably reliable Brazilian newspaper is reporting, based on sources with first-hand knowledge inside the presidential palace, that Bolsonaro’s first test was positive for COVID-19.” He added that “A second more reliable test was performed; results available today.”

Joyce Karam

@Joyce_Karam

BREAKING: President Jair Bolsonaro Tests Positive for . He was in US and dined with Trump on Saturday, March 7.

He is highest ranking political leader to get COVID-19. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-share-markets-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news#block-5e6b86c28f088d7575592c3c 

Coronavirus live news: Brazil president Bolsonaro reportedly tests positive, and Spain declares…

 

Likely this means the US president himself will now be closely monitored and tested, if not already.

developing…

iv) Swamp commentaries)

The major theme in the markets on Thursday was DEFLATION.  Stocks and commodities plunged; precious metals and credit instruments plummeted; the dollar roared while bonds declined a tad.  Bitcoin crashed as much as 27.4%.  The need for liquidity and cash forced people to sell everything.

The NFL is mulling what to do about Pro Day events and its draft in Las Vegas on April 23-25.  The NHL suspended its regular season.  The NCAA canceled all winter & spring tournaments.  MLB canceled its spring schedule and delayed the start of the regular season.  Disneyland & Disney World closed.

The Thursday night collapse in ESMs (June is now the front month for equity and US debt futures) ended when the WH emphasized that the travel ban on Europe did NOT apply to goods.  Trump several minutes earlier tried to make this point but that rally was short lived.  The rally ended when the US issued a travel advisory around 23:15 ET that told Americans to reconsider foreign travel due to Covid-19.

Stocks plunged globally on Thursday, with European bourses suffering staggering losses – despite the ECB’s new stimulus measures, mainly more QE.  The DAX plunged as much as 12.2%!  The FTSE MIB (Italy) crashed 14.9%.

European Central Bank offers stimulus to curb coronavirus impact

Policymakers left interest rates in the region unchanged

    The central bank for the 19 countries that use the euro decided Thursday to buy up to 120 billion euros ($132 billion) more in bonds this year. The money is newly created and injected into the financial system. It comes on top of purchases worth 20 billion euros a month it is already carrying out.

     The ECB is also providing additional cheap, long-term loans to banks to make sure they have the liquidity they need. And the ECB will temporarily ease some capital requirements for banks to help them keep lending…  https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/european-central-bank-stimulus-coronavirus-impact

US stocks opened down the 7% limit.  The Fed did an astounding $198.1B of repos with $272.8B submitted!!!  $103.1B was overnight repos.  Some of the usual suspects got the nerve or a Pavlovian impulse to buy stuff at 9:53 ET.  So, major indices rallied.  ESMs jumped 80 handles in hour!  But, everything then rolled over until another rally attempt appeared just after midday arrived.  The usual conditioned suspects played for the routine Noon Balloon.

Coronavirus: China airline passenger numbers fall 84.5% [Is China in a depression now?]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51813483?from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0

@JohnBasham: @realDonaldTrump has directed @USDOL to allow all states to amend their own Unemployment Insurance rules to give Paid Sick Leave to those impacted by #coronavirus #COVID19 providing relief to those who are sick, caring for an ill family member or quarantined.

@realDailyWire: In terms of potential deaths…the crisis we face is on a scale of a major war…we also have to face the truth and that is that the number of casualties may actually be even higher than what the armed forces experienced in World War II. – Bernie Sanders, dangerously stoking more panic

19 of the 39 US Covid-19 deaths are tied to one nursing home in Washington State.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-deaths-washington-nursing-home-outbreak-2020-3

Our daughter is a reporter/anchor in a large Midwestern city.  She told us that people keep chastising reporters and anchors over social media for creating panic over the Covid-19 virus. She said that she retorts, “I just report the information we get directly from health and government officials.

China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17 [Probably got loose in Oct]

Government records suggest first person infected with new disease may have been a Hubei resident aged 55, but ‘patient zero’ has yet to be confirmed…

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back\

Today – The Fed tried to send a clear and unambiguous message to the markets that it would save the credit markets.  The markets responded with a clear and unambiguous message that there is a stupendous problem in the system.  Possibly the most troubling response was the bonds tumbled on Thursday afternoon after a lukewarm Treasury Auction.  If bonds go south on QE 5 (T-Bill QE is #4), the desperation for liquidity is incalculable.  When will the system problem be exposed?

Now that the Fed has panicked and instituted coupon QE and Trillion Dollar Repos, some traders and investors will get jiggy.  However, the Fed’s nuclear option implementation – it’s far bigger than a bazooka – will alarm some investors and operators for at least three reasons: 1) The system has an enormous problem; 2) there are few Fed options remaining; and 3) the market reaction to the Fed’s nuclear option was extremely disappointing; and 4) what occurs next if the Fed’s nuclear attack does NOT resolve the system problem or problems?

Bloomberg’s @ChrisOpfer: Democrats are trying to use COVID-19 legislation to pass a national paid sick leave law.  Business groups are not happy.

Employer Groups Criticize Sick-Leave Mandate in Virus Bill

There are things in there that have nothing to do with what we’re talking about,” Trump said. “So, it’s a way for them to get some of thegoodies that they haven’t been able to get for the last 25 years.”…

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/employer-groups-criticize-sick-leave-mandate-in-virus-bill

McConnell @senatemajldr: Unfortunately, Speaker Pelosi’s first draft…does not focus immediate relief on affected Americans. It proposes new bureaucracy that would only delay assistance. It wanders into policy areas that are not related to the pressing issues at hand.  House Democrats instead chose to produce an ideological wish list that was not tailored closely to the circumstances

At her presser, Pelosi made Biden look articulate.   https://twitter.com/PolishPatriotTM/status/1238188565550555138

@BloombergAsia: Joe Biden named a new campaign manager Thursday…: Obama veteran Jen O’Malley Dillon, who managed Beto O’Rourke’s failed presidential bid

In a speech on Covid-19 yesterday, Biden reiterated that he opposes Trump’s travel bans and calling Covid-19 a “foreign virus”.   “Travel restrictions based on favoritism and politics, rather than risk, will be counter-productive.” – Biden.  Joe took NO questions after his presser.

@bennyjohnson: On January 31st, President Trump announced restrictions on Travel to and from China in response to Coronavirus. HHS Sec. Alex Azar declared a Public Health Emergency.  Joe Biden called it “Hysterical Xenophobia” and “Fear Mongering”  https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1238153685991141379

@ABC: Biden criticizes Trump and the “disparagement of science” in battling coronavirus: “Unfortunately, this virus laid bare the severe shortcomings of the current administration. Public fears are being compounded by pervasive lack of trust in this president.”   Joe Biden says we “need to accelerate the development” of a coronavirus vaccine and when it is available it should be “made widely available” and “free of charge.”   https://abcn.ws/2W5N9AZ

CNBC’s @EamonJavers: Trump campaign fires back at Biden after his virus remarks: “In the past, Joe Biden has shown terrible judgment and incompetence in the face of public health issues.”

Team Trump: Joe Biden Plagiarizes President Trump’s Coronavirus Plan

Biden blatantly ripped off President Trump, and bizarrely called on him to do things he has in fact already done…   https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/joe-biden-plagiarizes-president-trumps-coronavirus-plan/

@SteveGuest: During Doe’s coronavirus speech today, he said go to “joebiden dot com” to read his coronavirus plan… when you go to joebiden dot com… It’s a splash page to just donate to his campaign.

Biden, Pelosi and other Dem leaders keep stating that Trump is responsible for the Covid-19 crisis and China should not be disparaged.  If this ploy continues, it will exact a political price on Dems.

Chinese official accuses US Army of starting coronavirus outbreak, demands ‘explanation’

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-china-us-army-accusation

Expert: Chinese Scientists Sell Lab Animals as Meat on the Black Market

China’s coronavirus epidemic could have been unleashed by researchers who sold laboratory animals to the notorious “wet markets” of Wuhan for extra cash… Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash…

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/02/24/expert-chinese-scientists-sell-lab-animals-meat-black-market/

Iran likely launched attack that killed Americans in Iraq: US general – “The Iranian proxy group Kata’eb Hezbollah is the only group known to have previously conducted an indirect fire attack of this scale against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq,” Gen. Kenneth McKenzie told Senate lawmakers Thursday morning…https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-likely-launched-attack-that-killed-americans-in-iraq-us-general

 END

Charles Nenner: “We Are Heading For A Depression”

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner told his clients back in January 2020, “It was time to sell . . . . I am afraid they can lose 40% to the downside.”

Well, we are more than halfway there, and Nenner warns it’s going to go lower – much lower. Nenner says,

“You know it was all over the media, and they were always laughing at me that my long term target is 5,000 for the DOW Jones. They ask me how are we going to get there, and I say I don’t know. Now, this thing with the virus, there is no business anymore because the United States has stopped flights with Europe. So, maybe we can see how we get there.”

I think people have finally stopped laughing about Nenner’s 5,000 DOW call.

Another way the markets can crash is a full blown banking crisis that is brewing in Europe. At the center is Deutsche Bank (DB), which the IMF called the “most systemically dangerous bank” in the world back in 2016. Nenner predicted on USAWatchdog.com that if DB stock crashed through a $6.44 price target, it could go to $0. DB closed Thursday at $5.53, down 15% in one day. Nenner says,

“I have real estate I want to sell because in Amsterdam, it’s going through the roof. I decided not to do it because I don’t trust the banking system. For years, we have talked about Deutsche Bank, and I said if it goes below $6.50, it could go into bankruptcy. Now it’s $5.50. They are interconnected to most European banks. So, something is really cooking over there, and I don’t really trust the banks. That’s why I am not selling my real estate. . . . I don’t trust the banks anymore.”

So, Deutsche Bank is the canary in the coal mine? Nenner says,

“Definitely. If DB goes, I don’t know what all the other banks are going to do. . . . It looks like DB can go to zero. . . . Next step is $3.90. If it goes to that, it’s finished.”

DB is just one big bank in deep financial trouble, and it’s much bigger than just DB. Nenner says,

“Other banks are also down 20%. Italian banks are very important. What happened in Italy? They closed everything down. There is no fashion business anymore. There is no car business anymore. There is nothing going on. How do you think these banks are going to make it?

Nenner says he is forecasting a banking crisis, and the tip of the iceberg is Deutsche Bank. Nenner says,

“They are interconnected to all the other banks in Europe. I don’t know how the other banks can survive if this bank gets into trouble.”

Does it get worse before it gets better? Nenner says,

I think we are heading for a depression. Usually we go into a recession at a 6% GDP. Now, we have 1.5% to 2% GDP. Usually, the Fed Funds are 6%, 7% or 8%. Now, they are almost zero. What are they going to do when we get a recession? You get very fast a negative GDP. You get very fast a negative interest rate, and it’s a big mess. This has been going on for many, many nice years, and all the Fed Presidents had tricks and let it go. They did not want to have a depression in their lifetime like the 1930’s. So, they kept it going, and now there is no way out anymore.

So, there is no avoiding a depression? Nenner says, “Yep, and it is going to be very bad.”

Nenner is also bullish on gold and silver because there is “no other place for investors to hide.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle expert Charles Nenner.

*  *  *

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

 

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