APRIL 1/GOLD DOWN $7.70 TO $1580.70//SILVER IS DOWN 11 CENTS TO $13.85//FUTURE PRICES ARE MUCH HIGHER//AND PHYSICAL PRICES FOR GOLD AND SILVER CONTINUE AT SKY HIGH PRICES//THE COMEX IS BROKEN!!//CHINA ORDERS A TOTAL QUARANTINE IN HENEN PROVINCE DUE TO ANOTHER OUTBREAK//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE FOR SPAIN, USA IRAN ETC//LOW OIL PRICES BRINGS WHITING PETROLEUM TO BANKRUPTCY//THE LOW OIL PRICE WILL BRING THE USA’S SHALE INDUSTRY AND CANADA’S OIL SANDS TO ITS KNEES//

GOLD:$1580.70  DOWN $7.70   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$13.85//DOWN  $0.11  London spot price  

 

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

i)Gold : $1588.10  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $13.96//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $1585.50

JUNE GOLD:  $1591.90  CLOSE 1.30 PM

 

 

 

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $13.95…1:30 PM.

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $1800. usa per oz

and silver; $26.00 per oz//

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:   1497/3174

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 03/31/2020 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 03/31/2020
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:14:21
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,583.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/31/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 04/02/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 122
099 H DB AG 91
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 418
132 C SG AMERICAS 1 15
152 C DORMAN TRADING 26 2
323 C HSBC 7
323 H HSBC 108
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 1666
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 61
357 C WEDBUSH 102
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 156
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 65
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 86
661 C JP MORGAN 1497
685 C RJ OBRIEN 17 9
686 C INTL FCSTONE 689 50
690 C ABN AMRO 219 288
709 C BARCLAYS 21 22
800 C MAREX SPEC 51 19
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 13
880 C CITIGROUP 36
880 H CITIGROUP 361
905 C ADM 26 104
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3,174 3,174
MONTH TO DATE: 20,476

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 3,174 NOTICE(S) FOR 317,400 OZ (9.8724 tonnes)* ALL TIME RECORD FOR AMT OF GOLD STANDING

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  20,476 NOTICES FOR 2047600 OZ  (63.689 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

 

 

4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 020,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 724 for 3,620,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $6296 DOWN $114 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $6275 DOWN $128

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: WITH NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

 

WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES

 

GLD: 967.00 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TONIGHT//

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 395.181  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 33 CONTRACTS FROM 139,289 DOWN TO 139,256 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE TINY LOSS IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  2 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE LOSS IN OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1117 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 1150 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1150 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1150 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1150 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.75 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

3.895  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 2 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS MAY HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET GAIN OF 1117 CONTRACTS OR 5.585 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

1150 CONTRACTS (FOR 1 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 1150 CONTRACTS) OR 5.275 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1150 CONTRACTS OR 6.005 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 5.75 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 64.43% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          899.24 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..          452.280 MILLION OZ (22 TRADING DAYS AND ALREADY HUGELY SURPASSES FEB AND JAN MONTHLY TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR  5.75 MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 33, DESPITE THE   $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1150 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG  TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1117 CONTRACTS (WITH THE 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1150 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 33 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 2 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $13.96 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY AS WELL AS A HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.696 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 99.42% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR  20,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 3.875 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A MONSTROUS 22,402 CONTRACTS TO 495,652 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR COMEX LOSS IN PRICE  OF $32.70 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH SOME LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING AN ATMOSPHERIC  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED AND YET THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT FALL IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD. THUS THE LOSS ON THE COMEX WAS DUE TO ENDING OF THE  LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS ( A MINUS),  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ( A POSITIVE) AND OUR NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC GAIN IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (POSITIVE). WE LOST A STRONG 13,617 CONTRACTS  (42.35 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 8785 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 180. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 8605.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 8785.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 495,652. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,617 CONTRACTS: 22,402 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8,785 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 13,617 CONTRACTS OR 42.35 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $32.70 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT CONSIDERABLE FALL IN  PRICE, SURPRISINGLY WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 42.35  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (FALL $32.70). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE SOME WHAT SUCCESSFUL  ( SEE BELOW) 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (8785) ACCOMPANYING THE HUMONGOUS LOSS IN COMEX OI.(22,402 OI):  TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  13,617 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A MONSTROUS  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND  4/ THE FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION (ENDS MARCH 31)///…ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT  PAPER LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY

 

 

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE APRIL.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 8785 CONTRACTS OR 878,500 oz OR 27,32 TONNES (1 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8785 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY  (*NEW ALL TIME RECORD FOR A MONTHLY EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 27.32 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 27.32/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.76% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2350.22  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (//(*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE)
APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               27.32  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 33 CONTRACTS FROM 139,289 DOWN TO 139,256 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1150 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 1150; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1150 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 33 CONTRACTS TO THE 1150 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 1117 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  5.585 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ//APRIL 3.895 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 2 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 1150 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. THE ENTIRE LOSS OF COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR PHYSICALS.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.77 POINTS OR 0.57%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 517.69 POINTS OR 2.19%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 851.60 POINTS OR 4.50%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  3.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0994 /Oil DOWN TO 20.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 25.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0994 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1116 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

I

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A MONSTROUS 22,402 CONTRACTS TO 495,652 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI LOSS WAS SET WITH A STRONG PAPER LOSS OF $32.70 IN GOLD PRICING //TUESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG EFP ISSUANCE (8785 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2) FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION WITH 3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND 4) MONSTROUS INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH THAT HUGE STANDING  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG LOSS ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,617 CONTRACTS.

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8785 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 180, MAY: 0  JUNE : 8605 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8785 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  13,617 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8785 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A MONSTROUS SIZED 22,402 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING A HUGE  LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL BY $32.70). THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 42.35 TONNES WAS MAINLY DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING, ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND THE FINALIZATION OF LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS..AND A MONSTROUS STANDING FOR GOLD IN APRIL 

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 13,617 CONTRACTS OR 1,361,700 OZ OR 42.35 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  495,652 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.56 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1540 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1540/2200 OR 70.00% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 159,524 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY193,885 contracts//

APRIL 1

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 15,665.340 oz

 

SCOTIA

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

687,543.310

OZ

20,000 KILOBARS

 

JPMORGAN

MALCA (20,000 KILOBARS)

SCOTIA//THE REMAINDER

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
3174 notice(s)
 317400 OZ
(9.872 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4204 contracts
(420400 oz)
13.07 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
20,476 notices
2,047,600 OZ
63.689 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 2 kilobar entries

 

i ) We had 1 deposits into the dealer

Into Scotia:  44,553.310 oz

total dealer deposits: 44,553.310 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 44,553.310 oz

we had 3 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 321,510.000  oz 5,000 kilobars

ii) Into Malca:  321,480.000 oz  5,000 kilobars

and both of these are phony entries

 

iiI) Into SCOTIA: 44,553.310

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 687,543.310  oz  or 21.385 tonnes

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  NIL   oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 1

 

a)out of JPMorgan: 60,031.372 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer of JPMorgan

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 7378 contracts for a loss of 18,317 contacts. We had 17,302 notices filed yesterday so we lost 1015 contracts or 101,500 oz will not stand at the comex as these guys morphed into London based forwards and received a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

 

 

May saw its ANOTHER LOSS of 106 contracts to stand at  2228.

June saw a LOSS of 6326 contracts up to 362,024

 

 

We had 3174 notices filed today for 317,400 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 7000 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3174 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1497 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,476) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (7378 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (3174 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,468,000 OZ OR 76.76 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (20,476)x 100 oz)  + (7378 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3174 x 100 oz )which equals 2,468000 oz standing OR 76.76 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

We lost 1015 contracts OR 101500 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the other side of the pond.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

341,434.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.62 TONNES

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  517,645.900  OZ OR 16.10  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 100.10 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS

total registered or dealer gold:   3,736,071.679 oz or  116.20 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  341,434.443 oz (or 10.6200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:  517,645.900 oz or 16.10 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 3,218,425.7  (100.10 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  3,218,425.7 (100.10 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   9,948,668.779 oz 309.44 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS

 

1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 

 

2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD

end

April 1/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 33 CONTRACTS FROM 139,289 DOWN TO 139,256 (AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR TINY OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL 2 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/TUESDAY.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH 1)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING COUPLED WITH PERHAPS SOME  LONG LIQUIDATION. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 59 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH LOST 699 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 720 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN, GAINED 21 CONTRACTS OR 105,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 818 DOWN TO 78,659.

 

 

We, today, had  4 notice(s) FILED  for 20,000, OZ for the MAR, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

APRIL 1/2019

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 140,035.493 oz
Brinks
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
4
CONTRACT(S)
(20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
55 contracts
 275,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  724 contracts

3,620,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into everybody else 0

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.002 million

total customer deposits today: 1,188,164.380   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of   Delaware:  10,191.693  oz

ii) Out of Brinks; 100,957.600 oz

 

iii) Out of Delaware: 10,191.693 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  140,035.493  oz

We had 1 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

 

iii) Out of Scotia; 4845.70 oz

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.178 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.862 million oz

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR 20,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 724 x 5,000 oz = 3,620,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.( 59) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 724 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (59)- number of notices served upon today (4) x 5000 oz equals 3,895,000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.

WE GAINED 21 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 105,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT  THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  139,256 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:  139,289 CONTRACTS..,

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 139,289 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 696 million  OZ  99.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO +.33% ((APRIL 1/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO +0.39% to NAV:   (APRIL 1/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 0.39%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.51 TRADING 14.52///DISCOUNT 0.08

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD

FEB 26./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

APRIL 1/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 967.00 tonnes

*IN LAST 791 TRADING DAYS: +22.31 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 691 TRADING DAYS;+ 197.29. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY: A STRONG GAIN OF 747000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

FEB 26\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

 

 

APRIL 1.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT  395.181 MILLION OZ.

 

END

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.56/ and libor 6 month duration 1.18

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .38

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 0.93%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.00

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.07

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Craig Hemke points out the huge amount of gold standing at the comex: 76 tonnes and silver 3.9 million oz..as demand for physical intensifies following the lockup of all refiners

(Craig Hemke/Sprott Money/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The CME opens Pandora’s box

 Section: 

5p ET Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Big deliveries of gold suddenly are being sought on the New York Commodities Exchange, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money, adding that it’s questionable that the exchange can fulfill its obligations as gold demand soars and mines, refineries, and mints close under the pressure of the virus epidemic.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “The CME Opens Pandora’s Box” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-cme-opens-pandoras-box-craig-hemke….

Not so coincidentally, Sprott Money has just announced that it is temporarily suspending shipments of coins and bullion because of Canadian government regulations closing inessential businesses and United Parcel Service’s suspension of package insurance and delivery signature requirements.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Pam and Russ Martens describe the New York fed will keep bailout details secret this time even though taxpayers will no doubt be liable for losses.

(Pam and Russ Martens)

Pam and Russ Martens: New York Fed will keep bailout details secret this time

 Section: 

5:10p ET Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Pam and Russ Martens of Wall Street on Parade report today, is structuring its latest financial bailout so recipients of government largesse may never been revealed even as taxpayers will be liable for losses.

Meanwhile, Congress snoozes on, unaware that it’s not really operating the U.S. government — that the big investment banks are operating it via their agent, the New York Fed.

The Martenses’ report is headlined “The Dark Secrets in the Fed’s Last Wall Street Bailout Are Getting a Devious Makeover in Today’s Bailout” and it’s posted at Wall Street on Parade here:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/03/the-dark-secrets-in-the-feds-last…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Fidelity shuts down 3 money market (for treasury funds) to new investors

(London’s financial times/GATA)

Fidelity shuts three Treasury funds to new investors

 Section: 

By Joe Rennison and Colby Smith
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Fidelity said it would stop accepting new money into three money market funds that invest in U.S. Treasuries, as it sought to protect current investors from the dramatic decline in interest rates since the outbreak of coronavirus.

Assets in the three funds have soared by more than $23 billion to $85 billion during this month’s clamour for safe assets, and new money has had to be invested in increasingly low-yielding securities.

… 

With some short-term Treasury debt even trading with negative yields, new investments could dilute returns for existing investors in the funds, Fidelity said.

In a note to investors seen by the Financial Times, the asset manager said that its Fidelity Treasury-Only Money Market Fund, Fidelity Institutional Money Market Treasury-Only Portfolio, and Fidelity Institutional Money Market Treasury Portfolio would close to new investors from the end of today. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/c0bc0af1-8e83-455d-9adf-8d7a0a0d7248

End

The Coronavirus has frozen the Chinese gold market, hurting demand.  Investors all over the world are clamoring for the safety of bullion

(Bloomberg)

Top gold market freezes as Chinese shoppers stay away

 Section: 

By Annie Lee and Jinshan Hong
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has frozen the Chinese gold market, torpedoing demand at a time when investors elsewhere in the world are clamoring for the safety of bullion.

China is the biggest buyer of gold bars, coins and jewelry, but the national shutdown to contain the virus has emptied malls, while the premium charged to buy the metal in China has evaporated. It leaves the industry staring down a long road to recovery, even as Beijing tries to jump-start broader consumption with a campaign to get shoppers out and about.

… 

The market’s struggles in China may present a headwind for prices, which last month topped $1,700 an ounce for the first time in seven years. The traditional haven also faces a drag from slower retail consumption in India, Europe and the U.S., as well as Russia’s surprise decision to halt purchases by its central bank. Last year, Chinese consumers accounted for about a fifth of total gold demand of 4,356 tons, according to the World Gold Council. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/world-s-top-gold-mark…

END

Our usual end of month whack of gold is highlighted by the King report

(King report/GATA)

The King Report: Some mysterious entity wants gold lower for month-end

 Section: 

From The King Report
Burr Ridge, Illinois
Wednesday, April 1, 2020

https://mramseyking.com/king-report

Gold tumbled [Tuesday] because it almost always declines sharply at the end of the month when there has been a rally in the month. Some mysterious entity wants gold lower for month-end. This is precisely what occurred in June, July, August, September, October, February, and now March. .

iii) Other physical stories:

THIS IS A MUST INTERVIEW FOR YOU:  RONAN MANLY INTERVIEWED BY CHRIS MARCUS

COMEX Doesn’t Have 400 Oz Gold Bars

There sure have been a lot of unusual announcements out of the gold and silver trading centers lately. And now Ronan Manly of Bullion Star reports that the COMEX can’t find 400 oz gold bars for its new contract.

To find out what’s happening, click to watch the interview now!

Chris Marcus
April 1, 2020

END

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.0994/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1116   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 15.77 POINTS OR 0.57%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 517.69 POINTS OR 2.19%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 851.60 POINTS OR 4.50%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.61/Euro FALLS TO 1.0934

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.61/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 20.26 and Brent: 25.35

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.50%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.56% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.68%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.06: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.72

3k Gold at $1585.00 silver at: 13.99   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 51/100 in roubles/dollar) 78.65

3m oil into the 20 dollar handle for WTI and 25 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.61 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9660 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0561 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.50%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.62% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.27%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.6617..

Futures Tumble As Bear Market Rally Ends; Gundlach, Marks Expect New Lows

With the only question on traders’ mind whether the March 20 liquidation cascade was the market low, the market itself may be ready to give us the answer, because on the first day of the new month and new quarter – when the speculation of pension fund buying is now gone for another 90 days – US equity futures tumbled along with stocks in Europe and Asia as investors were spooked by a warning from President Trump who said a “painful” two weeks lay ahead, as the latest US coronavirus figures are set to surpass 200,000 today sparking new fears about the pandemic’s impact on corporate profits and dividends. Amid the renewed rush for safe havens, the dollar climbed alongside with Treasuries.

“President Trump warning about two dreadful weeks ahead and 100,000 – 240,000 deaths in the coming months is definitely putting a negative tone on the market,” said SocGen FX strategist Kit Juckes. “It is pretty risk-off out there. It is definitely a day of lower bonds yields, falling equity indexes and tin hats.”

Wall Street tumbled on Tuesday, ending the biggest quarterly fall since 1987 for the Dow Jones and the steepest for the S&P 500 since the financial crisis. The fact that it happened in a month and from record highs made it feel all the more brutal.  And, as Bloomberg adds, stocks are beginning the new quarter with more declines, amid investor fears the loss of dividend income could spark a fresh wave of selling, knowing that analysts are dashing to update earnings forecasts to take into account the looming global recession and the slump in stock prices.

“Markets are looking at global equities in a new light, one with no buyback support and no dividends,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Financial Pty Ltd. The earnings season is likely to trigger a decline in consensus S&P 500 profit expectations which “are far too high relative to dividend futures,” he said.

U.S. economic activity is likely to be “very bad” and the unemployment rate could rise above 10% because of efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester told CNBC.

Not helping sentiment were two investing icons, as both Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks and DoubleLine Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach said the S&P 500 Index is likely to reach new lows in April, with economic uncertainty further riling investors: “I think we’re going to get something that resembles that panicky feeling again during the month of April,” Gundlach said Tuesday during a webcast on the market and economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. “We will get back to a better place, but it’s just not going to bounce back in a V-shape back to January of 2020.” And in a note to clients Tuesday, Marks said assets on Friday were priced “fairly” for the optimistic case, but “didn’t give enough scope for the possibility of worsening news.”

With the bear market rally already running on fumes, it got a roundhouse punch to the head as European stocks plunged after major banks including HSBC Holdings and Standard Chartered halted dividends and share buybacks. Meanwhile, the euro extended its drop as PMI readings from the single-currency region painted a bleak picture, with Italy’s posting a record drop. But it wasn’t just Italy: in the euro zone, Markit’s final March manufacturing PMI sank to lowest since mid-2012, when the currency union’s debt crisis was raging, and was well below the mark separating growth from contraction.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also tumbled, led by industrials and IT. Stocks in Japan hit session lows in the final hour of trading, closing down almost 4% as the BOJ appears to have given up and drastically reduced the amount of ETFs it bought today.

Most markets in the region were down, with India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index dropping 4.3% and South Korea’s Kospi Index falling 3.9%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 3.6%. Hong Kong shares also dropped. Chinese equities outperformed as a private reading on the country’s manufacturing sector beat expectations, rebounding in March in a number that can only be described as “gloriously fake.”

A bunch of Asian manufacturing PMIs released today also failed to boost sentiment, as they illustrate the abrupt slump in economic activity, deteriorating employment outlook and declining forward outlook as lockdowns are ramped up and in some cases extended. Asia’s factory outlook has not only suffered the extent of China’s lockdown but is now being dealt a second wave of headwinds as demand from Europe and the US collapses.

  • Jibun Bank Japan March Manufacturing PMI 44.8 vs 47.8 in Feb.
  • Markit South Korea March Manufacturing PMI 44.2 vs 48.7 in Feb.
  • Markit Taiwan March Manufacturing PMI 50.4 vs 49.9 in Feb.
  • Markit Thai March Manufacturing PMI 46.7 vs 49.5 in Feb.
  • Markit Indonesia March Manufacturing PMI 45.3 vs 51.9 in Feb.
  • Markit Vietnam March Manufacturing PMI 41.9 vs 49 in Feb.
  • Markit Malaysia March Manufacturing PMI 48.4 vs 48.5 in Feb.
  • Markit Philippines March Manufacturing PMI 39.7 vs 52.3 in Feb.
  • Markit Myanmar March Manufacturing PMI 45.3 vs 49.8 in Feb.

The exception, the Australian AIG manufacturing PMI, which rebounded back to expansionary levels. However, before getting too excited, the accompanying analysis from AI Group poured cold water on the rebound, stating the result was “almost entirely due to a huge surge in demand for…food, toilet paper, cleaning products and other household essentials”. So a direct result of the fear induced panic buying and hoarding from Australian consumers.

As such, with every passing day economists are becoming less convinced about the potential for a V-shaped recovery in growth. Factories around the world suffered one of their grimmest months on record in March, as the coronavirus led to mass shutdowns and wreaked havoc on supply chains. China’s reading, however, turned back into growth territory in March, offering a ray of hope that the world’s second-biggest economy may be on its way to recovery.

“In the U.S., the data remains fairly worrying and the peak may well be a few weeks on,” Bob Parker, an investment committee member at Quilvest Wealth Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The economic data is clearly starting to improve in March in China after a very weak January and February.”

In FX, the violent dollar rally that seemed to abate at the end of March returned, as haven demand increased after Trump warned of a “painful” two weeks ahead due to the virus; The greenback advanced against its G-10 peers aside from Norway’s krone; the euro fell a third day versus the dollar and extended its slide as London came into the market. The yen was marginally stronger, taking its rally into a sixth day also supported by speculation the coronavirus outbreak will weigh on Japanese investment overseas even as the nation’s new fiscal year begins. Australia’s bond yield curve bull flattened as the central bank extended its QE purchases to maturities further out the curve. N.Z. yields rose as the nation almost doubled its 2019-20 debt issuance.

In rates, US Treasury 10-year yields fell 6bps to 0.61% underpinned with the 10-year driving gains as S&P futures drift lower. Treasury yields lower by 3-7 bps across the curve as Bunds extended gains on haven buying, paring their underperformance against Treasuries. Italian bonds fell, underperforming euro-area peers, amid long-end selling and thin liquidity, while several banks warned it is only a matter of time before Italy loses its investment grade rating.

Elsewhere, West Texas oil fluctuated around $20 a barrel after President Donald Trump’s pledge to meet with feuding producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to support the market failed to bolster prices substantially.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 3.2% to 2,487.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 3% to 310.51
  • MXAP down 2.1% to 133.92
  • MXAPJ down 1.4% to 430.33
  • Nikkei down 4.5% to 18,065.41
  • Topix down 3.7% to 1,351.08
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 23,085.79
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,734.52
  • Sensex down 4.5% to 28,131.45
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 3.6% to 5,258.64
  • Kospi down 3.9% to 1,685.46
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to -0.491%
  • Euro down 0.8% to $1.0939
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.4 bps to 1.351%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.8 bps to 0.715%
  • Brent futures at $24.95/bbl
  • Gold spot up 1.1% to $1,594.16
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.6% to 99.68

Top Overnight News

  • China reported 130 people over the past day who were infected with the novel coronavirus but don’t have symptoms, a sign that the group of people who can spread the virus without being detected is sizable
  • The premium to borrow dollars in some money markets has vanished, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s beefed-up swap lines. Three-month dollar-yen cross-currency basis hit a record on Tuesday — this time in positive territory — before extending on Wednesday. That means yen floating-rate funding is now more expensive than the U.S. variety. It was at a record discount just two weeks ago
  • Italy will extend its nationwide lockdown to April 13, as relaxing the rules too early would negate efforts to counter the spread of the coronavirus, the government told parliament Wednesday
  • Companies raised a record of at least $752 billion in bond markets around the world last quarter, to build cash buffers as the coronavirus pandemic darkens business outlooks

Asian equity markets traded mixed with sentiment cautious after Wall St wrapped up the worst quarterly performance in the S&P 500 since 2008 and biggest quarterly loss on record for the DJIA, as risk appetite remained centred on the ongoing coronavirus pandemic in which the US, UK and Spain all experienced their highest daily death tolls to date. ASX 200 (+3.6%) and Nikkei 225 (-4.5%) were mixed with outperformance in Australia led by the energy sector after oil prices found mild reprieve overnight and as financials also benefitted from recent regulatory concessions, while the Japanese benchmark faltered on the weight of the detrimental currency flows and after negative Tankan numbers which showed the lowest reading in the Large Manufacturing Index in 7 years. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) diverged with the mainland underpinned by the surprise expansion in Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI and recent comments by China’s State Council which pledged further support measures including targeted RRR cuts. However, the mood in Hong Kong was less productive after a record slump in Retail Sales and with hefty losses seen in HSBC and Standard Chartered after they scrapped dividend and share repurchase plans on the directive of UK authorities to provide an extra cushion amid the coronavirus fallout. Finally, 10yr JGBs were slightly higher amid the negative risk appetite in Japan and after the BoJ recently raised the frequency of its purchase intentions for this month, although upside was capped by resistance ahead of 153.00 and due to a reserved Rinban operation in which the BoJ reduced its purchase amount for 3yr-5yr bonds.

Top Asian News

  • Indonesia Slashes Growth Forecast as Virus Pandemic Takes Toll
  • Singapore Banks Offer to Defer Mortgage, SME Loan Payments
  • Central Bank Funding of India Debt ‘Inevitable,’ Ex- Chief Says
  • Chinese Airlines Confident About Winning War Against Virus

The fading of month/quarter-end factors and the quietened stimulus news-flow have prompted global equitys to resume the sell-off, with Europe (Eurostoxx 50 -3.2%) following the negative lead from Wall Street and Asia overnight. Core markets see slightly more pronounced losses than peripheries, with particular underperformance seen in the UK’s FTSE 100 (-3.7%). The index is pressured by a slew of banks posting losses between 5-10% after agreeing to scrap a total of ~GBP 7.5bln in dividends and suspending share buybacks upon the order of the UK government. The BoE also stated that they are prepared to look into using their supervisory powers in the event the commitments are not adhered to; thus, HSBC (-8.5 %), Standard Chartered (-7.0%), Lloyds (-5.5%), Barclays (-6.1%) and RBS (-6.4%) are all on the backfoot. Unsurprisingly, the Financials sector is the laggard with Banks the underperformers in the sector breakdown. Energy follows a close second amid the rotting prices in the complex after yesterday’s mild reprieve. Travel & Leisure holds its place as one of the heavier-hit sectors due to the ongoing demand decline. In terms of individual movers Pirelli (-2.2%) failed to hold onto gains spurred by Italian brake maker Brembo purchasing a 2.43% stake in the company, as upside was potentially shaved by Continental’s (-5.0%) guidance withdrawal and bleak assessment of the auto and tire divisions – with material changes and disruptions seen in significant portions of its business – Nokian (-12.3%) and Michelin (-0.5%) also reside in the red, although the latter is somewhat cushioned by a broker upgrade at Barclays. Finally, Adidas (-2.9%) declines after suspending its EUR 1bln share buyback to conserve cash in light of retail store closures in Europe and North America.

Top European News

  • HSBC, StanChart Tumble After Regulators Push to Axe Payouts
  • ECB’s Stournaras Tells EU to Get Real or Risk New Debt Crisis
  • Italy Says Lockdown Will Be Extended, Warns of Long Battle
  • U.K. Manufacturing Shrinks More Than Expected as Virus Hit

In FX, the Dollar has regained momentum after Tuesday’s late tumble amidst dwindling demand for portfolio rebalancing and a 7th liquidity providing repo facility from the Fed, with widespread rebounds against G10 counterparts pushing the DXY up from sub-99.000 lows through 99.500 again. However, risk sentiment remains fragile to say the least and prone to further abrupt swings, while looming US economic indicators are destined to reveal more COVID-19 contagion that could scupper the latest Greenback revival. On that note, ADP will be viewed with added interest along with jobs components from the manufacturing PMI and ISM as proxies for the monthly BLS report on Friday and ahead of tomorrow’s weekly claims that many believe may top last Thursday’s 3.3 mn or so record breaking number.

  • AUD/NZD/CAD – In keeping with yesterday’s price action, the Aussie and Kiwi only received temporary overnight traction from another Chinese PMI beat and headline print back above the key 50.0 level (albeit just in the case of Caixin’s manufacturing index) before recoiling from around 0.6160 and just under 0.6000 respectively vs their US peer to almost 0.6050 and sub-0.5900 before paring some losses (latter circa chart support). Meanwhile, the Loonie also has declining crude prices to contend with and has fallen below 1.4200 ahead of Canada’s manufacturing PMI that could feasibly lose 50.0 status.
  • GBP/CHF/EUR – Also succumbing to the Buck’s bounce and renewed risk aversion, as Cable retreats from 1.2400, the Franc from near 0.9600 and Euro recoils from 1.1000+ towards 1.0900, with little or no reaction to UK, Swiss or Eurozone manufacturing PMIs irrespective of outcomes vs expectations.
  • JPY/SEK/NOK – In contrast to other majors, the Yen retains an element of safe-haven premium between 107.94-26 parameters and is well within striking distance of decent option expiries spaced equidistantly from 108.00 to 107.00 (2 bn at the top, 1.4 bn at 107.50 and 1 bn at the bottom). Meanwhile, the Norwegian Krona and its Swedish peer to a lesser extent have largely shrugged off sharp declines in manufacturing PMIs into contraction territory, and the former also the aforementioned downturn in oil, as Eur/Nok continues to trade off increased Norges Bank currency action below 11.4000 and Eur/Sek is capped ahead of 11.0000.
  • EM – No such luck for the Hungarian Forint after a horrendous plunge in the manufacturing PMI to 29.1 from 50.3 and added dire news in the breakdown as new orders sunk. Hence, Eur/Huf has advanced to fresh all time peaks approaching 364.00.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures resume the decline following the prior session’s mild reprieve – whilst divergence is seen between the energy benchmarks. Brent underperforms as it sees renewed pressure from further OPEC roadblocks after members failed to agree on an emergency meeting to deal with the price rot. OPEC’s President has been pushing for a meeting of OPEC’s Economic Commission Board – an OPEC body that does not set policy but makes recommendations. Sources noted that Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, and Nigeria pushed for no such meeting. The meeting itself could be agreed to by a simple majority of the 13 members, although the absence of Saudi would mean the meeting has no power to come to a consensus even if agreed upon as the Kingdom accounts for around 33% of total OPEC output. As a reminder, prior sources noted that Saudi opted for the next meeting to take place on the scheduled June date. Furthermore, as the OPEC+ production pact expired last night, the Kingdom is readying to ramp up its supply levels above 12mln BPD from ~10mln BPD in March, a move confirmed by an industry official. Russia is reportedly ditching its plans to raise production by 300k BPD (with scope for it to be raised to 500k BPD) amid the supply glut, albeit the rift with Saudi remains. Brent futures briefly dipped below USD 25/bbl, having slipped from yesterday’s USD 27.90/bbl high. Meanwhile, WTI fares modestly better amid a seemingly growing alliance between US and Russia after sources suggested a US-Saudi partnership has been put on hold, possibly after Saudi refused US’ request to ditch production hikes. The US and Russian Energy Ministers, after President Trump and President Putin’s call, agreed to continue the dialogue among major producers and keep tabs on the market volatility. Furthermore, sources State-side said the Trump Admin is mulling leasing SPR storage to energy companies. The plan could be announced as soon as today and comes after the Admin failed to secure funding from Congress to purchase cheap oil to fill the SPR’s 77mln barrels of free capacity. The idea of the revised plan is to tackle the risk of overwhelming commercial storage from the growing supply glut, oil will be stored for sale later once the crisis subsides. Elsewhere, the weekly Private Inventory data only adds to the bearish fire after a larger-than-expected build of 10.5mln barrels vs. Exp. 4mln barrels – traders will be eyeing today’s DoEs for confirmation. In terms of metals, spot gold recoups some of the prior day’s losses after the downside was exacerbated heading into the US cash close. The yellow metal dipped below USD 1600/oz and its 21 DMA at USD 1589/oz. Prices currently hover in-between those levels. Copper prices largely move in tandem with the overall risk appetite, albeit to a lesser extent. The red metal remains north of USD 2/lb but off best levels.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -29.4%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. -150,000, prior 183,000
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 48, prior 49.2
  • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 1.8%
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 44.5, prior 50.1
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 12m, prior 16.8m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy April Fool’s Day although I suspect in 2020 we will not see the usual list of implausible or fake stories given the mood of the globe. Ten years ago on this foolish day I met my wife after a brief period of internet dating email exchanges. Her profile showed her doing the splits which I admired and she liked the music I sent her of my band. Given that this didn’t happen very often I had to make sure I followed up on it. The rest is history. How are we celebrating in a covid-19 world? By social distancing which to be fair has been strictly practiced in our household since we managed three kids in two years.

As it’s a new month and quarter we have just published our usual monthly performance review which this month needs a fold out version to capture some of the falls on the graphs in the document. We also include Q1 and YTD data. In addition we add sector performance charts for the S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 for March (with YTD figures added) and also a list of worst and best performers over this tumultuous last month. See the report out at a similar time to this.

Two other reports to point out from my team and I are firstly where DB’s new economic forecasts for 2020 appear in the worst years on record using up to 800 years of GDP data? DB expects -4% to -9% 2020 GDP for the six main developed market countries but do these numbers make the top ten of worst years on record for each? Click here to find out. Secondly we put out a document entitled “The exit strategy” where we look at the most likely dates that large western economies will reopen after lockdowns and what might happen next. See here for more.

In terms of new cases, as we show in our new Corona Crisis Daily, Italy and Spain continue to see their curves flatten. See the new daily for more on this including lots of interesting graphs and tables.

We’re straight to China now where this morning the Caixin PMI printed at 50.1 (vs. 45.0 expected and 40.3 last month). That backs up the better than expected state PMI releases we saw yesterday however other readings in Asia clearly trail China. Japan’s final manufacturing PMI printed unrevised at 44.8 while South Korea’s reading of 44.2 (vs. 48.7 last month) was the lowest since January 2009. In South East Asia the drop in PMIs was sharper with the Philippines reading dropping to 39.7 (vs. 52.3 last month), the lowest since records began in 2016, while Vietnam slipped to 41.9 (vs. 49.0 last month) and Indonesia recorded 45.3 (vs. 51.9 last month). One bright spot though was Taiwan which rose to 50.4 (vs. 49.9 last month) partly as supplier delivery times increased rather than improvement in orders. So, the message from the PMIs is clear that even as China is showing signs of stabilization the economies elsewhere are continuing to falter.

Asian markets are mixed on the back of that with the Australia’s ASX (+1.50%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.30%) pulling ahead at the expense of the Nikkei (-1.49%), Hang Seng (-0.92%) and Kospi (-0.60%) which are all down. Meanwhile, yields on 10y USTs are down -3.3bps to 0.637% and Brent crude oil prices are trading down -2.01%.

Elsewhere, President Trump warned overnight that it’s “going to be a painful two weeks” for Americans while adding, “Our strength will be tested, our endurance will be tried.” Deborah Birx, the top public-health official coordinating the coronavirus task force, said that as many as 200,000 Americans are projected to die in the outbreak, even with another 30 days of the most stringent public-health restrictions. S&P futures are trading down -1.74% this morning on the back of the news. Elsewhere, California and Texas are planning cuts to their jail populations with early releases to limit the virus from spreading through overcrowded prison systems. In other news, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s party has proposed a JPY 60tn ($555bn) package to help Japan’s households and businesses survive the coronavirus pandemic. The stimulus is worth more than 10% of GDP and if agreed on will be the biggest stimulus on record.

After the latest China PMI numbers, one of the main highlights today will be the release of manufacturing PMIs for March from Europe and the US ahead of services on Friday. We have had a few flash readings already last week, and they showed a collapse across the board but more in services than manufacturing. The final numbers don’t often change much from the flash but given the severity of the lockdowns in the second half of the month this will be one to watch. We’ll also get a first look at Italy and Spain which given their more savage impact from the virus, these will be a big focus. We’ll also get the ISM manufacturing reading from the US later on, where the consensus on Bloomberg is looking for a decline to 44.5, which would be the lowest since May 2009 but this is only the beginning of the slump for the US.

US markets ended the quarter on a softer note after a decent bounce over the last week. They fell just over -2% after London markets closed with the S&P 500 closing down -1.60%. Prior to the late sell-off the STOXX 600 closed up +1.65%. Energy stocks advanced on both sides of the Atlantic following Monday’s rout in oil prices, though oil itself ‘only’ stabilised at multi-year lows, with Brent Crude nearly unchanged. In fact, energy was the only sector to finish higher in the US, while in Europe only Telecoms and Banks were down on the day. In a further sign that volatility in markets is continuing to ebb and also just how volatile March was, the S&P’s move yesterday was actually its third smallest absolute move all month. March 2020 will go down as having only seen one move of less than 1% in either direction. Meanwhile the VIX index fell back -3.5pts to 53.5pts, its lowest level since March 12 and putting it over a third lower than its closing level just over two weeks back. The volatility index averaged over 57pts for the month, over nearly 3x the 20-year average of 19.6pts.

There was various news on the US policy front yesterday, with President Trump floating the prospect in a tweet of further fiscal stimulus down the line, saying that “With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill. It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our country! Phase 4”. Given that the $2 trillion “Phase 3” package was already far larger than the fiscal stimulus in 2009 this is ambitious and will likely be difficult to get political momentum at this stage. However, House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer have also called for additional stimulus in recent days and so there would be bipartisan support for some kind of phase 4 bill, if Trump can get other Republicans – especially fiscally conservative ones – on board with additional government spending. Further outbreaks around the country during an election year for many senators could see them support the additional legislation.

Meanwhile the Federal Reserve announced that they were establishing a temporary repurchase agreement facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA Repo Facility). This will enable other central banks or international monetary authorities who have a FIMA account to temporarily exchange US Treasuries for dollars, something that will further help ease the dollar shortage we’ve seen recently.

In spite of the vague prospect of further fiscal stimulus, 10yr Treasury yields actually fell by -5.7bps yesterday. It was a rather different story in Europe however, where sovereign debt sold off across the board and peripheral spreads widened for a 3rd consecutive day. 10yr bund yields were up +2.4bps by the end of the session, while the spread of Italian yields over bunds was up a further +2.6bps to finish just under 200bps. It hit a recent low of 129bps back on 12 February.

Economic data releases yesterday further demonstrated the impact of the coronavirus. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator from the US fell to 120.0 in March (vs. 110.0 expected), which was the largest monthly decline in the reading since August 2011. The expectations reading also saw a notable fall, down to 88.2, which is its lowest level since October 2016, before President Trump had been elected. Over in Hong Kong meanwhile, retail sales volumes in February fell by a larger-than-expected -46.7% yoy (vs. -37.5% expected), and down from a -23.1% decline in January. In Germany, there were 470,000 requests by companies from the country’s kurzarbeit scheme, where the government helps companies by subsidising workers’ wages.

In terms of the other data out, the flash estimate of Euro Area inflation for March fell to 0.7% (vs. 0.8% expected), while the MNI Chicago PMI for the US in March held up at a better-than-expected 47.8 (vs. 40.0 expected).

To the day ahead now, and the highlight will be the aforementioned manufacturing PMI releases. Other data out includes the ISM manufacturing index from the US for March, along with construction spending for February and weekly MBA mortgage applications. Over in Europe we’ll get German retail sales for February, as well as the Euro Area and Italian unemployment rate for February too. Finally tonight, Boston Fed President Rosengren will be giving a virtual talk on the economic effects of Covid-19.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.77 POINTS OR 0.57%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 517.69 POINTS OR 2.19%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 851.60 POINTS OR 4.50%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  3.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0994 /Oil DOWN TO 20.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 25.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0994 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1116 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/PMI

The numbers are totally fake

(zerohedge)

China’s Fake Number Parade Continues: Caixin PMI Soars, Prints Just Barely In “Expansion”

One day after China’s official National Bureau of Statistics decided to have some fun at the expense of the sinking US economy, and despite suffering an unprecedented economic crash itself, reported laughably high March PMI numbers, with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs surging from their record February lows, smashing expectations by the most on record and in the case of manufacturing’s 52.0 print, rising to the highest level since September 2017 in an apparent confirmation of a V-shaped recovery in China …

… moments ago the parade of fake numbers out of China continued apace, when Markit reported that the Caixin PMI, which focuses on small companies and private firms (unlike the official PMI number, which tracks mostly state-owned enterprises and other large-sized companies) also smashed expectations of 45.5, and soared from 40.3 in February to the smallest possible print in expansion territory: 50.1

While a remarkable rebound was to be expected after yesterday’s farcical numbers which clearly had a political justification, namely to show Washington just how strongly China’s economy had rebounded – even though as we reported China is suddenly drowning in massive unemployment and facing a tidal wave of consumer defaults – the fact that the Caixin PMI landed precisely at the smallest possible print in expansion territory was yet another obvious joke at the expense of anyone who still believes China reports anything remotely close to honest numbers, whether involving the economy or the coronavirus epidemic.

This is what Markit had to say about today’s laughable print out of China:

After deteriorating at the quickest pace on record in February, business conditions faced by Chinese manufacturers were broadly stable in March. Production rose slightly as more firms reopened following widespread company shutdowns and travel restrictions in February amid the Coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. However, the pandemic continued to weigh on demand conditions and supply chains, with total new work falling for the second month running and delivery times lengthening sharply.

Firms remained upbeat that production would increase over the next year, however, as a number of manufacturers expect
demand to recover once the COVID-19 outbreak subsides.

The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – rose from a record low of 40.3 in February to 50.1 in March, to signal a broad stabilisation of business conditions. This marked a strong improvement from the previous month when the nation imposed strict measures to stem the spread of COVID-19.

It wasn’t exactly clear how there was a broad stabilizaition of business conditions at a time when not only half of China’s workforce is still MIA, but most of China’s foreign clients have shuttered either temporarily or permanently. But if there is one thing we have learned about China, it is to never ask questions and just accept the numbers, no matter how fake they are. And in light of this…

Business confidence regarding the one-year outlook for output held close to February’s five-year high, with many firms optimistic that demand will pick up once the pandemic situation improves.

… they wouldn’t be more fake:

It gets better, commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI data, Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief  Economist at CEBM Group said:

“The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1 in March from a record low the previous month, indicating limited improvement in manufacturing activity after widespread economic stagnation in February. The data in the survey, which was conducted from March 12 to March 23, reflected that manufacturers were still gradually getting back to work. The March expansion in the manufacturing sector returned to a level seen before the coronavirus epidemic.

* * *

Manufacturers were still quite confident about the next 12 months, although the gauge for future output expectations fell slightly from the previous month. Employment was also relatively stable. The employment subindex returned to the normal level before the epidemic outbreak, despite staying in negative territory. The good news was that fundamental economic factors, such as business confidence and resident income, did not deteriorate substantially.

To sum up, the manufacturing sector was under double pressure in March: business resumption was insufficient; and worsening external demand and soft domestic consumer demand restricted production from expanding further. Whereas, business confidence was still high and the job market basically returned to the pre-epidemic level, laying a positive foundation for the economy’s rapid recovery after the epidemic.”

In other words, China’s economy had recovered to levels prior to the coronavirus crash, yet paradoxically at the same time “business resumption was insufficient; and worsening external demand and soft domestic consumer demand restricted production from expanding further.” How this makes sense is anyone’s guess, but clearly it was enough for Markit to conclude that the Chinese economy was once again back into expansion.

Our take: the “stimulus” check from Beijing to Markit cleared.

END

CHINA

Chinese authorities are now desperate to jump start China’s paralyzed consumer economy, but its citizens are still wary of the virus

(zerohedge)

‘Relax, Eat Out & Shop’: China In Desperate Bid To Jump-Start Paralyzed Consumer Economy

As China believes it’s over the coronavirus hump, with signs that “normal” could be just around the corner, leaders in Beijing are attempting to jump-start the economy once again. “Relax, eat out and shop. That’s the latest message from the Chinese government to its people, after months of warning them to stay indoors because of the coronavirus,” Bloomberg writes.

We noted earlier that it’s smaller employers that remain the beating heart of China’s economy, accounting for 99.8% of registered companies in China, employing 79.4% of workers, and contributing more than 60% of gross domestic product and, for the government, more than 50% of tax revenue. The fact that retail sales plunged 20.5% in January and February and once-bustling malls and market spaces remain largely empty means many cash-strapped small businesses are unlikely to survive long enough to see consumers return to the streets in normal numbers.

Yet residents, after months in self-isolation, with whole cities and provinces that were on government enforced lockdown only now opening their gates, might have good reason to be skittish and untrusting about venturing out to cafes, restaurants and malls – given fears a dreaded potential ‘second wave’ could hit – but also given rampant unemployment due to the national shutdown (with some 5 million losing their jobs in the first two months of 2020 alone) will naturally encourage more families to stay in thrift mode, forgoing their regular consumption habits of better times before the outbreak.

 

Nearly empty shopping mall during a normally busy time in Beijing, in late February. Image source: AFP via Getty

It’s a sign that Western nations like Spain, the UK and US could take much longer than leaders expect to open up their economies again, belying such notions and wishes for an “Easter miracle” as Trump recently expressed, but later walked back from.

China’s attempt to get shoppers back out again into once bustling but now largely empty markets and night-life venues has involved unprecedented state-sponsored incentives and perks, including local authorities distributing vouchers to residents akin to ‘freebies’ and coupons, urging companies to allow paid time-off for ‘shopping half-days’, and local governments issuing subsidies on car purchases and other large items.

Nationwide the population has been subject to multi-million dollar ad campaigns geared toward getting people consuming again. “Domestic media are playing up stories of officials venturing out to enjoy local delights like bubble tea, hot pot and pork buns,” Bloomberg reports. “Images of bureaucrats dining out and shopping are a sharp departure from the austerity that resulted from President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented anti-corruption crackdown, which made many cadres scared to be caught doing anything that could be construed as ostentatious.”

“I would be grateful just to keep my job,” one woman employed by a small business told Bloomberg. “For my colleagues and I, we are still eating at home as much as possible. Going to public places doesn’t feel safe.”

USA TODAY

@USATODAY

Shopkeepers in Wuhan were reopening Monday, but customers were scarce. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/30/wuhan-stores-shopping-malls-reopen-after-weeks-battling-coronavirus/5087115002/ 

Stores, shopping malls reopen in Wuhan as city gradually revives from coronavirus outbreak

Shopkeepers in Wuhan were reopening Monday, but customers were scarce after residents were kept at home for two months.

usatoday.com

In bad news for a country attempting to stave off the coming global consumer default tsunami, people’s instincts on an emotional and psychological level are to react conservatively even as cities and markets open up. As Bloomberg notes, the anticipated so-called “revenge spending” has yet to come to large-scale effect on the ground:

Many in China have been banking on pent up demand they hoped would be unleashed once restrictions were eased, so much so that “revenge spending” has become a buzzword on social media.

The revival on the ground has been more tepid, prompting an influential Chinese economist to call for more direct stimulus such as the cash handouts employed by Hong Kong.

And again, this looks to be the negative blueprint for woes that the West – with its economies still “on pause” and with April essentially ‘canceled’ – still has coming.

“China’s consumer recovery will shed some light on what may happen in the rest of the world as the outbreak eventually peaks and recedes,” Ned Salter, head of equities research at Fidelity International, was quoted in the Bloomberg report as saying.

“There are clear signs of recovery across segments, although the pace of normalization is somewhat slow. We need to see more consumer confidence to sustain the improvement,” Salter added.

Indeed China as the world’s largest consumer market is one that economists, pundits and politicians in the West will keep a very close eye on to see what measures work, and how quickly signs of recovery come, once the pandemic is firmly under control and all major cities are over the hump.

END

CHINA/USA
this is no surprise:  China has lied about coronavirus figures
(zerohedge)

Leaked US Intel Report Accuses China Of Deliberately Lying About Coronavirus Figures

Update (1200ET): Vice President Mike Pence just said during an appearance on CNN that it “would have been better” if China was more forthcoming with the US during the early days of the outbreak, and basically blamed the Chinese for the White House’s slow response.

And there you have it, the purpose for this particular leak, is to begin laying out the administration’s defense when accosted by critics who accuse Trump of not doing enough early on to combat the virus.

*   *   *

A day after China reported more than 1,500 additional “asymptomatic” cases that authorities said had been left out of the country’s data, while promising to start reporting these cases (they’ve already reported 50 more on Wednesday, blaming most of them on travel) going forward, an intelligence report has been submitted to the White House accusing Beijing of deliberately underreporting cases.

The report, which was leaked to the US press by senior-level officials, revealed that the US believes China deliberately tried to conceal the extent of the outbreak, suggesting that Beijing’s decision to lift its lockdown is probably premature, which is why they’re pivoting toward blaming foreigners for these new “asymptomatic” cases that have supposedly been known to the government all along, they just simply ‘forgot’ to count them.

This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, as it was widely speculated during the early phases of the outbreak. But this is the first concrete indication that US intelligence has been taking Beijing’s deceptions seriously, and doesn’t intend to just sit back and take it lying down. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo earlier this month blasted the Chinese for withholding data about the virus.

Here’s the Bloomberg report:

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.

The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret and declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.

The report was received by the White House last week, one of the officials said.

The outbreak began in China’s Hubei province in late 2019, but the country has publicly reported only about 82,000 cases and 3,300 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. That compares to more than 189,000 cases and more than 4,000 deaths in the U.S., which has the largest publicly reported outbreak in the world.

Beijing has sought to convince the Chinese people that the virus was created and spread by the US military, a “conspiracy theory” that’s been dreamed up by the government and spread via state-controlled media outlets, a type of advanced-level information warfare designed to distract from the possibility that the virus may have leaked out of a Chinese bioweapons lab.

China’s lies have been exposed in surprising ways, like the deliveries of urns in Wuhan. Some leaked documents have suggested that China’s real numbers were 52 times higher than what Beijing allowed to be reported.

President Trump’s decision to refer to the virus as the “Chinese virus” was so aggravating for Beijing because it impeded the government’s effort to convince its people that the virus was made in America – though of course they didn’t say that, exactly, they couched their objections in accusations of racism and faux-outrage.

end
Early this afternoon:
CHINA/CORONAVIRUS
The markets will not like this at all:  China puts the entire county of Henen on lockdown after a new corona cluster emerges. This is why you cannot go back to work until the virus is eradicated
(zerohedge)

Here We Go Again: China Puts Entire County On Lockdown After New Corona Cluster Emerges

China is no longer fixed.

Having lied for the past two months about the severity of the coronavirus pandemic, eager to convey the message that the crisis “under control” just so people return to work, full of hope and enthusiasm, rejoicing at the surge in China’s just as fabricated PMI numbers, and willing to work their asses off (with Beijing so generously willing to risk everyone’s lives as the alternative is a complete collapse in China’s economy), earlier today the US finally cracked down on the relentless barrage of Chinese lies, when US intelligence accused China of deliberately lying about its coronavirus figures.

Then, in a miraculous coincidence, just moments later Reuters reported that a county in central China’s Henan province announced on Wednesday it had “virtually banned all outbound movement of people, following several cases of coronavirus infection in the area.

According to a post on its social media account, Jia county – which has a population of about 600,000 – said that no one can travel out of Jia county without proper authorization. Additionally, residents are not allowed to leave their homes for work unless they have clearance to do so.

 

According to local media reports, on March 29, Henan Province broke its 30-day streak of reporting no new coronavirus cases, saying one person tested positive after a trip to Pingdingshan, where Jia County is located.  Specifically, on Saturday, Henan province reported one confirmed case in Luohe city; local authorities said the infected person had been in contact with two doctors based in Jia county who later tested positive for the virus even though they had showed no symptoms.

As a result, Bloomberg adds that starting April 1, all residential compounds will be under “closed-off management” and all residents need to wear masks and have temperature taken entering or exiting the compounds.

And so the virus is back to China, despite the best intentions of the Chinese World Health Organization and its Beijing sponsors to make it seem that China had managed to defeat the virus.

Needless to say this is a problem, because the risk of stop-start restrictions on people’s movements mean that any calls for a V-shaped rebound in global economies and stocks can now be ignored as China will soon be forced to go through the entire shut down exercise all over again.

Indeed, as Bloomberg’s Simon Flint wrote presciently overnight, “as China’s economy restarts, there is every risk infection rates to tick higher once again, requiring renewed control measures and potentially the beginning of a stop-start pattern of lockdowns followed by eased restrictions.”

“Multiply that pattern by the growing number of countries in lockdown – and the unknown impact of a rampant virus in nations with fewer restrictions – and the much hoped for V-shaped recovery could quickly become a series of W’s”… and since “there is no blueprint for jump-starting a stalled economy in the midst of a global pandemic, a fresh waves of infections following production restarts could quickly snuff out any rally in global stocks.”

In other words, back to square one we go, only maybe this time China will tell the truth.

END

CHINA/ORIGINS OF THE WUHAN VIRUS (CORONAVIRUS)
As I have stated to you on countless occasions:  the real origin of the virus came from a Chinese biolab near ground zero
(zerohedge)

“One Of The Worst Coverups In Human History”: MSM Attention Turns To Chinese Biolab Near COVID-19 Ground Zero

In late January we asked whether a prolific Chinese scientist who was experimenting with bat coronavirus at a level-4 biolab in Wuhan China was responsible for the current outbreak of a virus which is 96% genetically identical – and which saw an explosion in cases at a wet market located just down the street.

For suggesting this, we were kicked off Twitter and had the pleasure of several articles written by MSM hacks regarding our ‘conspiracy theory’ – none of which addressed the plethora of hard evidence linked in the post. These are the same people, mind you, who pushed the outlandish and evidence-free Trump-Russia conspiracy theory for years.

Whether or not the virus was engineered (scientists swear it wasn’t) – it shouldn’t take Perry Mason to conclude that a virulent coronavirus outbreak which started near a biolab that was experimenting with — coronavirus — bears scrutiny. Could a lab worker have accidentally infected themselves – then gone shopping for meat at the market over several days, during the long, asymptomatic incubation period?

In February, researchers Botao Xial and Lei Xiao published a quickly-retracted paper titled “The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus” – which speculated that the virus came from the Wuhan biolab.

Now, mainstream outlets are catching on – or at least have become brave enough to similarly connect the dots.

Earlier this week, Fox News‘ Tucker Carlson suggested that COVID-19 may have originated in a lab.

Andrew Lawrence@ndrew_lawrence

Tucker Carlson is currently citing a report that he openly admits he can’t confirm is true to question if coronavirus was made in a lab

Embedded video

And now, the Washington Times is out with a report titled “Chinese researchers isolated deadly bat coronaviruses near Wuhan animal market.”

Chinese government researchers isolated more than 2,000 new viruses, including deadly bat coronaviruses, and carried out scientific work on them just three miles from a wild animal market identified as the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Several Chinese state media outlets in recent months touted the virus research and lionized in particular a key researcher in WuhanTian Junhua, as a leader in bat virus work.

The coronavirus strain now infecting hundreds of thousands of people globally mutated from bats believed to have infected animals and people at a wild animal market in Wuhan. The exact origin of the virus, however, remains a mystery. –Washington Times

“This is one of the worst cover-ups in human history, and now the world is facing a global pandemic,” said Texas GOP Rep. Michael T. McFoul – a ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. McFoul believes China should be held accountable for the outbreak.

“I am not a doctor, but I work to cure and save people,” said Tian, adding “I am not a soldier, but I work to safeguard an invisible national defense line.”

The mainstream theory behind the virus is that it crossed over to humans after first infecting an intermediary species – such as a pangolin.

Read the rest of the report here.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

SPAIN/JAPAN/USA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

COVID-19 Case Total Passes 100k In Spain; Japan Closes Border To US & UK Citizens: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Iran reports 138 deaths on Wednesday
  • Hong Kong closes bars, karaoke lounges, beauty salons and other public areas as new cases jump
  • Japan closes borders to travelers from 73 countries, including UK and US
  • US case total nears 200k
  • Italian finance minister says government agrees with business lobby’s projection for 6% GDP contraction
  • Spanish cases top 100k
  • UK pubs hatch plan to become grocers
  • Chinese provinces report 56 ‘asymptomatic’ cases

*   *   *

Update (0850ET): As the Treasury and state welfare departments prepare for the monumental task of handing out checks to most American adults, the Thai government has made a critical error while carrying out its own plan of cash handouts, as Nikkei reports.

Though America has the infrastructure to facilitate this process, it’s just a lesson of how governments must always keep the peculiar dynamics of a viral outbreak in mind while battling COVID-19.

Confusion about how to receive a $150 handout led to crowds of people thronging outside state banks, potentially exposing thousands to the virus.

Poor communication by the government caused people to rush to state banks, which they believed were the only places dispensing the funds as with some past disbursements. Fearful of creating infection hot spots, some branches closed for the weekend. And on Monday and Tuesday, banks were not offering account-opening services at physical branches.

The Bank of Thailand and the Thai Bankers’ Association, which has promised to keep as many branches open as possible to ensure businesses can continue operating, stepped in on Saturday to explain the aid could be transferred to state and commercial bank accounts.

The central bank and banking industry also explained that the handout could be received through domestic cashless transfer system PromptPay as long as accounts were linked to national IDs. But the announcements did not come early enough to prevent people from queuing.

Despite the risks they took, not all registrants are eligible, according to Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana. “The applications will be vetted and screened thoroughly to ensure that they meet the criteria and those in need get it,” Uttama said. “It takes seven days to process the applications at the earliest, but due to overwhelming demand, the process may take longer.”

Reporters chalked it up to a legacy from six years of military rule.

*   *   *

Just as the rate of new infections finally appears to have plateaued in Italy, Spain and France are reporting enough new cases to steal the spotlight. On Wednesday, the big story was Spain: Health Officials in Madrid reported.

Once again, health officials reported a “record” number of new deaths after 864 people died on Tuesday. It marked the fifth straight day of Spanish authorities reporting 800 or more deaths. So far, 9,053 people have died after contracting the virus.

According to the Spanish government, 102,136 Spaniards have contracted the coronavirus in Spain, after another 8% jump on Tuesday. OF the confirmed cases 22,647 people have reportedly recovered.

In the US, futures are in the red Wednesday morning after President Trump warned Americans to get ready for “2 painful weeks” (and possibly longer) while some 240k Americans are still expected to die even with social distancing). Meanwhile, global cases have reached 754,948 as of Wednesday morning, according to the WHO. The global death toll has hit 36,571.

Here’s a quick breakdown of global hotspots:

  • US total cases 188,639 (prev. 188,530), death toll 4,059 (prev. 4,053).
  • ITALY total cases (prev. 105,792), death toll (prev. 12,428).
  • SPAIN total cases 102,136 (prev. 95,923), death toll 9,053 (prev. 8,464).
  • CHINA total cases 81,554 (prev. 81,518), death toll 3,312 (prev. 3,305).
  • GERMANY total cases 72,383 (prev. 71,808), death toll 788 (prev. 775).
  • FRANCE total cases (prev. 52,128), death toll (prev. 3,523).
  • UK total cases (prev. 25,150), death toll (prev. 1,789).
  • SWITZERLAND total cases (prev. 16,605), death toll (prev. 433).
  • NETHERLANDS total cases (prev. 12,595), death toll (prev. 1,039).
  • SOUTH KOREA total cases 9,887 (prev. 9,786), death toll 165 (prev. 162).

Boris Johnson has been granted what one critic described as “eye watering” new powers to lead his country through the pandemic. But the private sector also appears to be dreaming up impressive new initiatives, including providing pubs with the means to set up a click-and-collect service for foodstuffs like bread, eggs and milk, in effect transforming them into neighborhood grocers. Those living nearby can simply place an order online, then pop round the shop to pick up their goods.

Italian Finance Minister Roberto Gualtieri said Wednesday that estimates of a fall in GDP of at least 6% by Confindustria, Italy’s business lobby, would likely be confirmed by Rome’s own forecasts set to be published later this month. If this rate of growth comes to pass, it would exceed the 5.5 % contraction the country suffered in 2009.

As we noted yesterday, health officials in Beijing have ordered local officials to begin reporting ‘asymptomatic’ cases that apparently left out of China’s numbers. Beijing announced ~1,500 such cases as of yesterday. On Wednesday, health officials in Liaoning Province were the first out the gate, reporting 52 such cases on Tuesday. Hunan Province followed by reporting 4 such infections, all of which were “imported”, according to Nikkei.

Across China, 130 asymptomatic cases were confirmed on Wednesday so far.

Across the world in Asia, Japan announced that it will close its borders to foreigners from 73 different countries, including the US and UK, and require all other arrivals to isolate themselves for two weeks in its latest measures to control the coronavirus as several Asian countries and territories see a resurgence in cases. Similarly, Hong Kong on Wednesday ordered karaoke lounges, beauty salons, massage parlors, nightclubs and mahjong clubs to temporarily close after officials announced a nearly fourfold increase in cases to 766 over the past two weeks.

Authorities in Iran reported 138 new deaths on Wednesday as the official Iranian death toll surpassed 3,000. Authorities were encouraging people to stay at home on the last day of Persian New Year celebrations, known as Nowruz, on Wednesday while they look into using new technologies to track cases and help combat the outbreak.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

Iran blames terrorists for blowing up a gas pipeline on the Turkish border:  gas exports to Iran are halted

(zerohedge)

Iran Blames “Terrorists” For Pipeline Explosion On Turkish Border, Gas Exports Halted

On Tuesday a key pipeline carrying gas between Turkey and Iran exploded at the Gurbulak border gate on the Turkish side near the Iranian border, temporarily halting gas exports from Iran.

Though most international reports treated the blast as mysterious in origin, including some Turkish state broadcasters such as TRT, Iranian leader were quick to blame “terrorists”.

 

Via APF: The pipeline carries around 10 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas to Turkey annually.

“This morning, terrorists attacked a natural gas pipeline inside Turkey near Iran’s Bazargan border with Turkey… Flow of gas has been halted,” director of the National Iranian Gas Company, Mehdi Jamshidi Dana, said in a statement.

Fire and smoke could be seen billowing from the site throughout the much of the day in dramatic footage captured by Russian media.

“The gas flow on the natural gas pipeline was cut and the fire that had started was extinguished by fire squads,” Turkish broadcaster TRT said, adding that the incident is under investigation.

According to the New York Times, citing Iranian state sources further, Kurdish militants operating in eastern under the PKK are being blamed for the blast :

Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency quoted National Iranian Gas Co. gas dispatching director Mahdi Jamshidi Dana as saying authorities suspected the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, likely attacked the pipeline.

Kurdish militants belonging to the outlawed PKK have targeted oil and gas pipelines from Iraq and Iran as part of their more than three-decade old campaign for self-rule in southeast Turkey.

Indeed at the height of fighting between PKK militants and the Turkish state throughout the 1990’s and into the 2000’s the pipeline was attacked and disabled on repeat occasions.

Turkey reportedly has kept an extremely reduced border security force in the area of late due to the coronavirus pandemic.

“It takes usually three to four days to repair and resume gas exports,” Turkish reports said.

END

6.Global Issues

Tom Luongo highlights that the next to fail in this post Covid world will be Italy as the EU will not issue coronabonds.  Italy then will leave the EU

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

Who’s Next To Fail In The Post-COVID World?

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

As much as I hate to invoke The Ayn Rand lest I give off the impression I’m some kind of Objectivist, which I am most certainly not, the engine of the world is coming to a halt.

Money velocity has been falling for years. It is now cratering as we hide in our homes from a bug that eventually we will all have to reconcile with. Credit is the engine of the world of today.

It is the gas which fuels the engine of the world.

COVID-19 has cratered the global economy exposing the internal rot within our hyper-financialized global economy as nothing more than a pyramid of Ponzi schemes…

… piling credit on top of credit until there are no more greater fools to sell the new debt to.

That’s the system we have. And it is collapsing precisely because the world is situated at the point where there is little more productive capacity to monetize and pull that capital from the future to fund the new debt.

It won’t matter if we replace this system with pure helicopter money without debt as the Modern Monetary Theory proponents argue. We’re already doing a version of this by having the central banks buy debt they never intend to sell on the open market. So, the debt itself is without value. The money printed from those bonds is as much scrip as if the bond had never been issued.

But the time lost by people in pursuit of uneconomic ends by mispricing risk and servicing debt they are legally obligated to service is real.

The engine is sputtering as trillions are printed to kick it back over one more time. But the gas has too much ethanol in it. There’s not enough air.

The engine is dying.

And it can no longer outrun the abyss swallowing the world staring back at us saying, “Thanks for the snack, those frackers and restaurants are tasty, but I’m still hungry. Who’s next?”

I’ve been very clear that Europe is the next big meal for the Abyss.

In the end, a home builder here, an over-leveraged bank there are nice. These are but apéritifs in the grand scheme of things. They are like sugar to a starving child, revving it up but not fulfilling its real needs.

Europe’s troubles are multiplying because the basic premise of how to fight this virus and the deflation it is engendering is functionally flawed. More money dropped from helicopters isn’t the solution.

Freeing Europe from the euro is.

And it will set Italy in the post-COVID-19 world at odds completely with the rest of Europe.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard adds more color to what happened at last week’s meeting of EU national leaders in which both sides of the fiscal divide dug in their heels.

Dutch premier Mark Rutte has become the spokesman for the hardliners – giving political cover to Germany – categorically ruling out emergency “coronabonds” or other forms of debt mutualisation. “It would bring the eurozone into a different realm. You would cross the Rubicon into a eurozone that is more of a transfer union,” he said. “We are against it, but it’s not just us, and I cannot foresee any circumstances in which we would change that position.”

Enrico Letta, Italy’s former-premier and an ardent EU integrationist, accused the Netherlands of leading the pack of “irresponsibles” and trying to “replace the United Kingdom in the role of ‘Doctor No’”. The reflexive use of the UK as a rhetorical foil evades of the true issue. It was not London that blocked moves to fiscal union over the last decade; it was Germany.

Pritchard brings up the spectre of Lega’s Matteo Salvini coming back into the picture, especially as the mood sours among even the most ardent Euro-integrationists like Italian President Sergio Mattarella.

Merkel is hiding behind her quarantine and letting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte speak for her. And that is driving the Italians to the point of no return.

Giuseppe Conte’s government is at a loss to fight the virus. It was ignored by the EU when it asked for help it paid for when this began. As Pritchard points out, what purpose does the EU serve when it won’t act to help a member in need as it is supposed to do?

The answer is the EU’s purpose is to be obeyed.

Italy’s two ways out of this mess is leaving the euro or forcing the northern bloc to cry uncle. But that has to occur within the prospect of removing so many internal roadblocks to Italian economic growth, starting with the euro but entailing much wider reforms, which are most definitely not on the post-Keynesian/MMT technocrats’ agenda.

Italy’s debt numbers are a large part of the hunger of the Abyss and no amount of blackmail by them and France will get Germany to go along with bailing them out.

I discussed these issues and more at length with Alexander Mercouris of The Duran in this series of videos we recorded over the weekend (herehere, and here) in which we tie Europe’s collapse to all the other things we’re experiencing in the world right now.

Most EU economies are fundamentally hampered by the ossified bureaucracy of the EU which is an over-layer of domestic bureaucracies.

And, as such, these national systems are barely capable of acting in a coordinated manner normally, no less with the EU enforcing its fiefdoms at the same time in the face of overwhelming strain.

In all situations the primary objective of all organizations is survival. All else is secondary.

The more credible the threat the more extreme their response.

They will dig in to protect against that threat rather then fulfill their stated mission. In the case of the EU that means using this crisis as the excuse to force fiscal integration and monetary reform on those that don’t want it as a means to survive.

Because in a crisis period there is no time for such luxuries as national sovereignty. There isn’t any reflection that the organization itself is the source of the problem. The organization is a default setting.

And now both sides of the fiscal debate are seeing the other for what they are and the result will most likely be an irreparable fracturing of the European Union.

Italy has now seen the true face of the EU. Conte has now tried histrionics to get his bailout, which won’t actually solve anything, because he’s aligned with the Euro-integrationists. What his country needs is a new currency and different leadership.

But he’s held onto power because his opposition would have already broken with the EU.

Like the obsequious worm that he is, instead of doing the right thing, issuing mini-BOTs, to free up domestic liquidity issues, Conte is looking at putting up the whole of the Italian government’s holdings as collateral against new debt to pay for stimulus of Einsteinian proportions.

This is the ultimate sellout of Italy to the EU. As a proposal it is the ultimate betrayal of the Italian people. These buildings and infrastructure are their legacy and they will be sold as collateral to loan sharks as opposed to reclaiming their national dignity.

There is no market for these bonds. So,who will buy them? The ECB.

Who then owns all of this property, ultimately?

The ECB and therefore the EU.

This is a proposal designed for Merkel to take back to home to the Bundestag and sell to the German people. If they bail out Italy, they will get something in return for their risk.

It’ll be just like they did with Greece in 2015, except then it was Germany forcing this upon them rather than the satrap Italian government offering themselves up like lambs.

But even with this desperation attempt to find buyers for their debt, Italy is facing a bleak future without serious reform.

And the odds are about equal at this point as to whether Germany or Italy breaks the EU. Because neither side can live with the other under the other’s terms.

At it’s core, however, this fight is a symbolic one over the continued belief that government can provide the solutions to our problems rather than being the source of them in the first place.

Socialized markets with bureaucratic controls are incapable of reacting in real time to swiftly changing conditions. No amount of helicopter money will change that. No amount of taxation as social engineering tool will create preferred outcomes.

Because remember when you advocate for things like that, you’re putting in charge of those taxes the same people who are mismanaging them now. Our governments aren’t staffed and run by angels. These are the same misinformed, mal-educated, biased, myopic, flawed people as everyone else.

In short, they are human.

And they have the same pretense to knowledge everyone else does. And they will make the same mistakes as everyone else. Under the pressure of outrunning the Abyss the character of the people in charge of the money reveals itself.

All that does is create the false signal of stability while perpetuating systems that are wholly inadequate to the job. COVID-19 has exposed them ruthlessly.

And still the Abyss stares back, like an implacable kidnapper, demanding its payday. Because there is no escaping the it.

So, while you can chuck funny money in there for as long as you want it doesn’t create value. It doesn’t produce sustainable outcomes. It produces theft and graft, it extends the grift, bails out the unproductive and punishes those that honestly went about their business.

Digging holes and filling them in doesn’t produce wealth anymore than breaking a window stimulates aggregate demand for glass.

It just creates an accounting fiction which costs twice as much as having not dug the hole or broken the window in the first place. It may delay the Abyss from swallowing you until tomorrow.

Until, of course, you run out of time.

 

And then there won’t be enough credit in the world to keep the engine of the world from sputtering and dying. That’s when real leadership is needed.

END

Airbnb bails out highly leveraged superhosts as the travel industry crashes.

(zerohedge)

Airbnb Bails Out Highly Leveraged Superhosts As Travel Industry Crashes 

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky wrote a letter to all hosts informing them that the company is committed to a $250 million bailout to cover some of the cost of COVID-19 cancellations. The canceled check-ins are for March 14 through May 31, Airbnb will pay hosts 25% of what they would’ve received via their cancellation policies, and the “payments will begin to be issued in April.”

Chesky said a separate $10 million Superhost Relief Fund would be designed for “Superhosts who rent out their own home and need help paying their rent or mortgage, plus long-tenured Experience hosts trying to make ends meet. Our employees started this fund with $1 million in donations out of their own pockets, and Joe, Nate and I are personally contributing the remaining $9 million. Starting in April, hosts can apply for grants for up to $5,000 that don’t need to be paid back.”

And here’s where the story gets interesting…

Of the four million Airbnb hosts across the world, 10% are considered “Superhosts,” and many have taken out mortgages to accumulate properties to build rental portfolios.

 

With the travel industry crashed, many of these Superhosts have seen their rental incomes plunge in March and risk missing mortgage payments in the months ahead. Chesky was forced to bailout Superhosts because some of these folks have overextended their leveraged in building an Airbnb portfolio and risk imminent deleveraging.

Highly leveraged Superhosts could be the first domino to fall that triggers a housing bust this year. Superhosts can have one property and or have an extensive portfolio, usually built with leverage. So when rental income goes to zero, that is when some have to make the difficult decision of missing a mortgage payment or having it deferred or liquidate the property to raise cash. These decessions are all happening all at once for tens of thousands of people not just across the world but all over the US and could trigger forced selling of properties into illiquid housing markets in the months ahead.

Some of the horror stories are already playing out on Twitter:

Will Meade@realwillmeade

AirBnB Bubble

View image on Twitter

Matt Stratford@mattstratford

It is hard to feel sympathy for AirBnb superhosts with multiple properties. In the UK at least, house prices are hugely inflated out of the reach of regular incomes and are due a correction.

AGTrader@ag_trader

i know many with downtown Chicago condos overlooking the lake. AirBnB’d out to high end business travelers.

$700-$1000 HOA fees on top of ridiculous property taxes. so even if they do a mtg deferment…. these people are still screwed.

And just like in 2008, when the rent payments stopped, landlords also felt the crunch and went belly up. What’s happening with highly leveraged Airbnb Superhosts is no different than what happened a decade ago. Again, no one has learned their lesson. And we might have discovered the next big seller that could ruin the real estate market: Airbnb Superhosts that need to get liquid.

rmt2295@rmt834

If you’re an @Airbnb Superhost and pay a mortgage on that property, you’re about to take the financial hit of a lifetime.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Saudi Arabia/Russia/USA

Trump fails to end the oil price war as the Saudis increase their production.  Their goal is to get rid of the shale boys in the uSA and the Canadian tar sands

(zerohedge)

 

“Apocalyptic April”: Trump Fails To End Oil Price War As Saudis Unleash Oil Tsunami On The World

Oil held steady near $20 on Wednesday, after President Trump’s pledge to meet with feuding producers Saudi Arabia and Russia (whose real feud is with US Shale producers) to support the market failed to bolster prices after their worst ever quarter.

Having crashed by a record 66% in the first three months of the year, as the coronavirus destroyed demand and the world’s biggest producers embarked on a catastrophic supply free-for-all, oil prices extended losses on Wednesday even after Trump said he discussed the collapse with his Russian and Saudi counterparts, adding that Moscow and the kingdom would “get together” to seek a solution.

However, as Goldman noted last night, any agreement to cut output is likely too late and would fall short of the loss in consumption, not that one is imminent mind you because after Trump’s comments last night, on Wednesday Russia said it is not in talks with Saudi Arabia on oil market situation and President Vladimir Putin has no immediate plans to speak with Saudi Arabian leadership, though Moscow remains open for talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tells reporters on conference call.

“Russian side traditionally welcomes mutual dialog and cooperation in order to stabilize energy markets” Peskov said adding that “our relations with Saudi Arabia remain on a high level. Of course, we may have certain disagreements, but in general our bilateral relations with SaudiArabia allow us to act effectively when there is such need.”

In short, no meetings between the two oil exporters any time soon, and yet they may have no choice but to arrange a deal.

“I do think both Russia and Saudi Arabia will be forced to cut back production, not because there’s a deal or they’re talking, but because of market forces,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

“The possibility of negotiations is offering a rare ray of light to a heavily beleaguered market,” said Howie Lee, a Singapore-based analyst at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “There are too many uncertainties involved to determine how strong a driver this would be, but it would probably take more than output cuts to lift prices back to pre-crash levels.”

So there is some hope, but for now with Trump failing to defuse the oil price war, Saudi Arabia has flooded the market as it warned it would less than a month ago, with Saudi Aramco’s oil supply surpassed 12 million bpd on the first day of April, up from 9.7mmb/d in March, and is boosting its production to its maximum, Bloomberg and the WSJ reportedAs a reminder, in early March, Saudi Arabia instructed its state-owned oil company to boost supply to 12.3m b/d in April, and told Aramco to boost maximum production capacity to 13m b/d as soon as possible, something it has taken quite seriously as a tweet it just sent would indicate.

أرامكو

@Saudi_Aramco

الموثوقيّة ليست مجرّد مؤشّر أداء، بل هي ثقافة الاستدامة في إمداد العالم بالطاقة. نفخر في أرامكو بتحميل 15 ناقلة نفط بـ 18.8 مليون برميل

هذه هي
هذه هي

In it, Aramco says that it is loading 15 oil tankers with 18.8 million barrels of oil.

As a result of this unprecedented surge in output coupled with plunging demand, the outlook for oil looks terrible, with Bloomberg noting that “oil is facing a potentially apocalyptic April“, according to top industry analysts. Making matters worse, Iraq has pledged to boost its output this month, while U.S. industry data is signaling the biggest weekly increase in American stockpiles since 2017.

Fears that oil storage space may run out as early as 2 months from now have already pushed certain crude grades to negative prices as we reported last night.

Meanwhile, virtually all energy products are now trading at cash costs, and set to drop further as countless oil producers file for bankruptcy.

END

Wow: we now have negative oil prices as producers are now paying clients to take oil off their hands

(zerohedge)

It’s Happening: Oil Producers Are Now Paying Clients As Wyoming Sour Price Turns Negative

When Goldman’s crude oil analysts wrote on Monday that “This Is The Largest Economic Shock Of Our Lifetimes“, they echoed something we said last week – namely that the record surge in excess oil output amounting to a mindblowing 20 million barrels daily or roughly 20% of global demand…

… which is the result of the Saudi oil price war which has unleashed a record gusher in Saudi oil production, coupled with a historic crash in oil demand (which Goldman estimated at 26mmb/d), could send the price of landlocked crude oil negative: “this shock is extremely negative for oil prices and is sending landlocked crude prices into negative territory.”

We didn’t have long to wait, because while oil prices for virtually all grades have now collapsed to cash costs…

… Bloomberg points out that in a rather obscure corner of the American physical oil market, crude prices have now officially turned negative as “producers are actually paying consumers to take away the black stuff.”

The first crude stream to price below zero was Wyoming Asphalt Sour, a dense oil used mostly to produce paving bitumen. Energy trading giant Mercuria bid negative 19 cents per barrel in mid-March for the crude, effectively asking producers to pay for the luxury of getting rid of their output.

Echoing Goldman, Elisabeth Murphy, an analyst at consultant ESAI Energy said that “these are landlocked crude with just no buyers. In areas where storage is filling up quickly, prices could go negative. Shut-ins are likely to happen by then.”

While Brent and WTI are hovering just around $20 a barrel, in the world of physical oil where actual barrels change hands  producers are getting much less according to Bloomberg as demand plunges due to the lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

Oil traders believe other crude streams are likely to see negative prices soon at the well-head as refiners reduce the amount of crude they process, leaving some landlocked crude without easy access to pipeline trapped. Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie explained this pricing divergence as follows:

Brent is a waterborne crude priced on an island in the North Sea, 500 meters from the water. In contrast, WTI is landlocked and 500 miles from the water. As I like to say, I would rather have a high-cost waterborne crude oil that can access a ship than a landlocked pipeline crude sitting behind thousands of miles of pipe, like the crude oils in the US, Russia and Canada.

As we noted last night, when we asked who would see zero dollar oil first, several grades in North America are already trading in single digit territory as the market tries to force some output to shut-in. Canadian Western Select, the benchmark price for the giant oil-sands industry in Canada, fell to $4 on Monday, while Midland Texas was last seen trading just around $10.

Southern Green Canyon in the Gulf of Mexico is worth $11.51 a barrel, Oklahoma Sour is changing hands at $5.75, Nebraska Intermediate at $8, while Wyoming Sweet prices at $3 a barrel, per Bloomberg.

While there is very little hope of a dramatic improvement in the situation, late on Tuesday, President Trump said the U.S. would meet with Saudi Arabia and Russia with the goal of halting the historic plunge in oil prices. Trump, speaking at the White House Tuesday, said he’s raised the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

“They’re going to get together and we’re all going to get together and we’re going to see what we can do,” he said. “The two countries are discussing it. And I am joining at the appropriate time, if need be.”

It’s unclear what if anything Trump “can do” in what is effectively a collusive war between the two nations meant to crush shale oil.

Trump’s intervention comes as April shapes up to be a calamitous month for the oil market. Saudi Arabia plans to boost its supply to a record 12.3 million barrels a day, up from about 9.7 million in February. At the same time, fuel consumption is poised to plummet by 15 million to 22 million barrels as coronavirus-related lockdowns halt transit in much of the world.

There is another problem: oil demand has been so battered by government lockdowns to stop the spread of the coronavirus that any conceivable oil production cut agreement between the U.S., Canada, Russia and OPEC members would still fall well short of what’s needed to shore up the market, Goldman calculated. In fact, assuming roughly 20 million in excess supply currently, the only thing that could balance the oil market is nothing short of both Saudi Arabia and Russia halting all output together. And that will never happen.

Finally, below we put the “long history” of oil prices in context:

 END
Whiting petroleum files for bankruptcy..the first of many
(zerohedge)

Whiting Petroleum Files For Prepackaged Bankruptcy

Talk about a coincidence: just as we were discussing why April would be “apocalyptic” for the oil industry, as Saudi Arabia just unleashed an unprecedented record amount of oil to buyers in a scramble to put its high-priced competitors out of business, warning that “countless oil producers would file for bankruptcy”, former shale darling Whiting Petroleum did just that, filing a pre-packaged Chapter 11 deal in the Southern District of Texas Bankruptcy Court after reaching an agreement with certain note holders to pursue a “comprehensive” and “consensual” financial restructuring.

Whiting, which in Q4 pumped 123,000 bpd of which 80,000 bpd was nat gas, said it concluded that given a “severe downturn” in oil and gas prices resulting from the Saudi Arabia-Russia oil price war and COVID-19-related impact on demand a financial restructuring was the “best path forward.” Creditors may disagree: the company’s bonds due March 2021 were trading at par as recently as mid-January, even though we warned as far back as 2015 that it would be the first company to go under: truly a testament to how idiotic the junk bond market has been for the past 4 years.

The company said that the plan provides for de-leveraging of capital structure by more than $2.2 billion, and listed $1-$10 billion in debt and more than $585 million of cash on its balance sheet, noting that it expects to have sufficient liquidity to meet its financial obligations during the restructuring without the need for additional financing.

More importantly, it will continue to operate its business and pump oil for the duration of the Chapter 11 proceedings, meaning that oil production won’t decline by even one drop.

The bankruptcy press release is below:

 Commences Chapter 11 Reorganizational Process to Right-Size Capital Structure

DENVER–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Apr. 1, 2020– Whiting Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: WLL) and certain subsidiaries (collectively, “Whiting” or the “Company”) today announced that they had commenced voluntary Chapter 11 cases under the United States Bankruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas (the “Bankruptcy Court”). The Company has more than $585 million of cash on its balance sheet and will continue to operate its business in the normal course without material disruption to its vendors, partners or employees. Whiting currently expects to have sufficient liquidity to meet its financial obligations during the restructuring without the need for additional financing.

The Company has also reached an agreement in principle with certain holders (the “Supporting Noteholders”) of its 1.25% convertible senior notes due 2020, 5.750% senior notes due 2021, 6.250% senior notes due 2023, and 6.625% senior notes due 2026 (collectively, the “Notes”) regarding a term sheet (the “Term Sheet”) that contemplates a comprehensive restructuring. The proposed financial restructuring, the terms of which will be set forth in a forthcoming restructuring support agreement between the Company and the Supporting Noteholders, would significantly reduce the Company’s debt and establish a more sustainable capital structure pursuant to a consensual chapter 11 plan of reorganization (the “Plan”) that would be supported by the Supporting Noteholders on the terms of such restructuring support agreement.

The Plan will provide for, among other things: (1) significant de-leveraging of the Company’s capital structure by over $2.2 billion through the exchange of all of the Notes for 97% of the new equity of the reorganized Company to be issued pursuant to the Plan; (2) payment in full in cash and/or refinancing of the Company’s revolving credit facility; (3) the payment in full in cash of all other secured creditors, tax and other priority claimants, and employees; and (4) the Company’s existing equity holders receiving 3% of the new equity of the reorganized Company and warrants (as described in the Term Sheet). Consummation of the Plan will be subject to confirmation by the Bankruptcy Court in addition to other conditions to be set forth in the Plan and related transaction documents.

Bradley J. Holly, the Company’s Chairman, President and CEO, commented, “In 2019, we took proactive steps to reduce our cost structure and improve our cash flow profile. We continue to build on these actions in 2020. The Company has also explored a wide variety of alternatives to address our balance sheet and looming note maturities in a highly capital constrained market environment.

Given the severe downturn in oil and gas prices driven by uncertainty around the duration of the Saudi / Russia oil price war and the COVID-19 pandemic, the Company’s Board of Directors came to the conclusion that the principal terms of the financial restructuring negotiated with our creditors provides the best path forward for the Company. We are pleased to have secured a highly constructive restructuring framework with a critical mass of our noteholders. Through the terms of the proposed restructuring, we believe a right-sized balance sheet will enable us to capitalize on our enhanced cost structure, high-quality asset base and successfully compete in the current environment.”

Mr. Holly continued, “I want to express my gratitude to the employees for their continued dedication and hard work, and to our service providers and business partners for their ongoing support during this time. Following the restructuring process, we look forward to having substantially less debt and a significantly improved outlook for our Company and its stakeholders.”

Moelis & Company is acting as financial advisor for the Company, Kirkland & Ellis is acting as legal advisor, Alvarez & Marsal is acting as restructuring advisor and Jeffrey S. Stein of Stein Advisors LLC is the Company’s Chief Restructuring Officer.

PJT Partners is acting as financial advisor for the Consenting Noteholders and Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP is acting as legal advisor.

End result: Whiting will emerge from bankruptcy in a few weeks, leaner and meaner, with almost no debt, yet pumping as much oil as before.

For those confused, this is confirmation that companies can and will continue to operate even under bankruptcy, something which the airline and cruise industry may want to realize, or perhaps the Trump admin, because if any company is to be bailed out, the existing equity has to be wiped out, period end of story.

Here is Whiting’s bankruptcy filing:

end
 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0934 DOWN .0092 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.61 UP 0.094 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2381   DOWN   0.0025  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4242 UP .01668 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 92 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0934 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 15.77 POINTS OR 0.57% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 517.69 POINTS OR 2.19%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 3,73%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 517.69 POINTS OR 2.19%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.77 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 3.73% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 851.69  POINTS OR 4.50%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1590.10

silver:$13.93-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.62% !!! DOWN 6 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.27 DOWN 6  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.61 UP 56 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.88% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.70%//UP 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,54 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 111 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.46% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.00% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0918  DOWN     .01070 or 107 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.15 DOWN .362 OR YEN UP 36  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2387 DOWN .0017 POUND DOWN 17  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 154 basis points to 1.4231

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1002    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  67.1272  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.6966 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.62 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.26 DOWN 6 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.69 UP 65  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 217.39  OR  3.83%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 391.89 POINTS OR 3.94%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 188.88 POINTS 4.30%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN  206.00 POINTS or 3.04%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 505.97 POINTS OR 2.97%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 20.29 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 24.76 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    63.05  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.37 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 37 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.46 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  21.01//

 

 

BRENT :  25/62

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.60  OR down 8 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.24…or down 8 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0965 ( DOWN 61   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.17 DOWN .335 (YEN UP 34 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.42 UP 37 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2284 DOWN 21  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.7022

 

 

the Russian rouble 78.86   DOWN 0.41 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 41 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4163 DOWN 85 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1002  (ONSHORE)/

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNH)   7.1223

 

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.46%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 973.65 POINTS OR 4.44%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 339.52 POINTS OR 4.41%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  57.06 CLOSED UP 3.52

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.451%//LIBOR RISING

LIBOR-OIS:  1.332//RISKS TO THE BANKS AND IT IS RISING!!

 

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

April Fool’d – Bonds Bid, Stocks Slammed As Rebalance-Bid Evaporates

With month-/quarter-end rebalancing flows now a thing of the past…

Virus-fear is back…

Source: Bloomberg

But the day started off ugly with a huge sell program…

Source: Bloomberg

…the biggest negative TICK since Aug 13th 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps led the bloodbathery with a near 7% collapse today (limit-down) but all the major US indices were ugly (note the weak open, bounce into EU close, then selling fir the rest of the day…

The Dow lost 21k; S&P dropped below 2,500; and Russell 2000 broke back below 1,100… erasing over 50% of the dead-cat-bounce from last week…

Both Defensive and Cyclicals were equally hit today…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears the short-squeeze ammo has run out again…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks were slammed, as the opening and closing bid ramps from last week have disappeared…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks continued yesterday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Directly-Virus-Affected sectors were monkey-hammered today with Airlines collapsing…

Source: Bloomberg

Most worrisome today was the crash in Mortgage REITs – despite weak markets and tumbling yields… systemic issues?

Source: Bloomberg

Credit was weaker today (HY worse)

Source: Bloomberg

Will stocks catch-down to bond yields now that the rebalance flows are done?

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all lower today as the rate-locks from record issuance lift (led by the long-end: 30Y -6bps, 2Y -1.5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yield tumbled back below 60bps today (57.7bps lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar rebounded from yesterday’s weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar shortage is back, with FRA-OIS widening notably today

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos faded today…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were noisy today with oil and gold up, copper down…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices turmoiled around today but ended higher after plunging back below $20 again

Gold futures bounced back above $1600…

Finally, we note that Republicans have retaken the lead (albeit very marginally) in the prediction markets for the November election…

Source: Bloomberg

And amid all the ongoing calls for more and more rounds of fiscal stimulus and helicopter money, USA sovereign/deval risk is starting to rise rapidly…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

We knew that this was going to happen;  foreigners dump Treasuries at a record 109 billion dollars

(zerohedge)

Fed Panics As Foreigners Dump A Record $109 Billion In US Treasuries

Exactly one week ago, when we highlighted the unprecedented surge in Fed Treasury purchases which since March 19 has amounted to $75BN per day until tomorrow when it tapers modestly to $60BN, we said that the Fed’s record ramp in debt monetization “is hardly an accident: one look at the Treasury securities held in custody at the Fed shows that the past two weeks have seen a whopping $50BN in foreign central bank sales, a 1.7% drop which was the highest in six years.”

As we also noted, “the selling may have contributed to record volatility in the Treasury market and prompted the Fed’s intervention. More importantly, it also means that the biggest buyer of US Treasurys in the past decade, foreign official institutions (i.e., central banks and reserve managers) are now sellers, so now the U.S. government needs private investors to soak up the ever increasing debt issuance.”

But since private investors are busy, trying to avoid getting killed by a deadly Chinese virus, it means that only the Fed now can fund the exploding US budget deficit… which is precisely what it has been doing, having purchased a record $912 billion in US Treasuries since the relaunch of official QE (hence expanded to unlimited QE) on March 13.

But here a problem emerged: because while the Fed may have been hoping to stabilize the bond market and ease the ongoing liquidation of Treasurys by foreign official accounts, it failed, and in the week ending March 25, the amount of Treasurys held in custody at the Fed on behalf of foreign accounts tumbled by a whopping $58BN, bringing the total weekly average to $2.891 trillion, the lowest since April 2017… when total US debt was nearly $4 trillion lower, or $19.8 trillion compared to $23.7 trillion today.

In total, in the turbulent month of March when global markets finally ended the longest bull market of all time, and crashed as much as 35%, and when oil lost more than 50% of its value overnight as Saudi Arabia launched an all out price war with virtually everyone else, Treasurys held in custody at the Fed on behalf of foreign central banks, sovereigns and reserve managers dropped by a record $109 billion – the biggest monthly drop in history.

Another indicator of central banks’ positioning in Treasuries is primary dealer holdings, which tend to rise when official accounts are selling, according to Bloomberg. And, indeed, according to lagged Fed data, Dealer holdings of Treasuries had surged to $272 billion as of March 18, from $193 billion at the start of February, as foreigners sold their positions to Dealers.

“The fall in custody holdings is a clear signal that foreign central banks – which have a lot of Treasury holdings – have been selling them to source dollars,” Subadra Rajappa, head of rates at Societe Generale told Bloomberg. “They need access to dollars as a lot of their payments are in dollars and that has driven them to sell Treasuries.”

The ongoing liquidation in foreign Treasury holdings – largely the result of the continued collapse in the price of oil as oil-exporters are forced to liquidate assets to obtain much needed dollars – led to the Fed’s panicked scramble to announce a foreign central bank repo facility, which it did on Tuesday morning, when it stopped short of saying it wanted to prevent a cascading domino effect from the Treasury liquidation, but made it very clear that the program will provide “an alternative temporary source of U.S. dollars other than sales of securities in the open market.

Translation: stop selling Treasurys as the world’s (formerly?) most liquid market is now suddenly extremely illiquid, and ongoing sales will only further destabilize it.

Credit Suisse rate strategist Jonathan Cohn echoed Rajappa saying the new repo facility “effectively backstops foreign central banks from forced liquidation of their Treasury holdings into dysfunctional markets.”

The new repo program “is a sensible second-best solution for major countries that are outside the enlarged Fed FX swaps network but have substantial corporate dollar funding needs,” said former NY Fed spokesman Krishna Guha, currently head of central-bank strategy at Evercore ISI. “This group includes China, which ought to be eligible for the new program, though the Fed release is not clear on this point.”

So will the Fed succeed in halting foreign Treasury sales thanks to the brand new repo facility? Or will foreign central banks skip the repo facility, just as US dealers have done for the past 2 weeks, and continue to liquidate forcing the Fed – that last resort monetizer of US deficit and debt issuance – to buy even more Treasurys each day?

We’ll know the answer this time next week when the latest custody data is released, and this time it will include the fully functioning foreign repo facility.

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Did anybody expect less? There is basically no sales:  the auto industry is now in total collapse because of the nationwide lockdown

(zerohedge)

“There Are Basically No Sales”: U.S. Auto Industry Enters Total Collapse As A Result Of Nationwide Lockdown

2020 is shaping up to be nothing short of a complete and total meltdown for the U.S. auto industry.

The industry was already barely holding on by a thread before the coronavirus pandemic started, with China leading the rest of the globe’s auto industries into recession over the last 18 months. Now, in a post-coronavirus world, automakers in the U.S. are expecting nothing less than full collapse.

And the things that were barely holding the industry up to start 2020, namely low rates and modest consumer confidence, don’t matter. Businesses are closed, would-be buyers are strapped for cash and the country’s economy has simply been turned off. The industry’s annualized selling rate could slow to 11.9 million in March, according to Edmunds.

Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for market researcher Edmunds, told Bloomberg“The whole world is turned upside down right now.”

 

The coronavirus lockdowns across the nation will also put a damper on April, which is traditionally a good month for auto sales. Ford is all but shutting down and names like Fiat and GM are expected to release extremely weak numbers later this week.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas put it simply: “There are basically no U.S. auto sales right now. Investors have fully embraced the reality that the U.S. auto industry may be shut down for one or two full months. We’re now being asked to run scenarios of six-month or nine-month shutdowns.”

The President’s extension of his social distancing guidelines to the end of April will also act as a headwind for the industry. Factory shutdowns that started in March will now head toward their second month of no production, as the U.S. consumer, for the most part, remains stuck at home.

Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting for research LMC Automotive commented: “We just don’t know when and how this ends, and that’s the biggest problem right now. All of this uncertainty creates a lot of angst and that has been spreading really like a wildfire through the industry.”

He predicts that the industry’s annualized selling rate will continue to plummet to between 9 million and 10 million vehicles. Those numbers are well below the 10.4 million autos sold in 2009, the year GM and Chrysler both filed for bankruptcy. J.P. Morgan has an even more pessimistic view, with estimates of a pace of 6 million to 7 million vehicles over the next month.

More data is on its way on Wednesday, when most automakers will report quarterly data. The results are expected to be grim, despite many people expecting the declines.

Richard Curtain, University of Michigan economist and director of surveys said: “Mitigating the negative impacts on health and finances may curb rising pessimism, but it will not produce optimism. Rebuilding confidence first requires a clear and unmistakable turning point in the fight against the virus as well as continued financial support to avoid a deeper and extended recession.”

We highlighted the collapse of the industry in China in February, where industry wide, sales fell 79% in February, marking the biggest ever monthly plunge on record.

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

@realDonaldTrump: With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill. It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country! Phase 4

McConnell and Pelosi draw coronavirus battle lines – The majority leader warns that he won’t allow Democrats “to achieve unrelated policy items they wouldn’t otherwise be able to pass.”

    “I’m not going to allow this to be an opportunity for the Democrats to achieve unrelated policy items they wouldn’t otherwise be able to pass,” McConnell said on Hugh Hewitt’s radio program on Tuesday morning… if another bill is needed “it should not be the vehicle for Speaker Pelosi’s partisan, parochial wish list,”… https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/mcconnell-pelosi-draw-coronavirus-battle-lines-157137

@LizRNC: Encouraging news! Dr. Fauci says the daily rate of increase is not at a steep incline, but possibly starting to flatten out   https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1245017832116625409

Gold tumbled because it almost always declines sharply at the end of the month when there has been a rally in the month.  Some mysterious entity wants gold lower for month end. This is precisely what occurred in June, July, August, September, October, February and now March

.

New York MTA Chief Says Federal Aid Needed to Avoid Bond Default

Largest U.S. mass-transit provider owes $45.3 billion

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/new-york-mta-chief-says-federal-aid-needed-to-avoid-bond-default

Chinese Biological Experiments with Coronavirus to Infect Humans Exposed in 2015 by Italian State Media – Five years ago, Italian state owned media Company, Rai – Radiotelevisione Italiana, exposed dark efforts by China on viruses. The video, which was broadcast in November, 2015, showed how Chinese scientists were doing biological experiments on a SARS connected virus believed to be Coronavirus, derived from bats and mice, asking whether it was worth the risk in order to be able to modify the virus for compatibility with human organisms…

    It is a group of Chinese researchers attaching a protein taken from bats to the SARS virus, Acute Pneumonia, derived from mice. The output is a super coronavirus that could affect man.

https://greatgameindia.com/italian-state-media-in-2015-exposed-chinese-biological-experiments-with-coronavirus/

Chinese hackers attacked foreign health care, military, oil networks as coronavirus hit China

As the coronavirus epidemic reached crisis level in Wuhan, China, in January, a known group of state-backed cyber hackers launched attacks at healthcare companies and other key industries outside the country, according to cybersecurity company FireEye… The Chinese hackers, a group known as APT41, are affiliated with the government but also conduct financial crimes for personal gain…

    The group also hit military installations and oil and gas targets, FireEye said, without naming where or in which countries to protect the identity of their clients…

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2020/03/chinese-hackers-attacked-foreign-health-care-military-oil-networks-as-coronavirus-hit-china/

We’re old enough to remember when Dems, RINOs, NeverTrumpers, Joe Biden and the MSM adamantly told us that Russia was the US’s primary foe and China was ‘no threat’ to the US.

Dripping with hypocrisy, Pelosi said she has no responsibility for the slow response to Covid-19.  She was too fixated on impeaching and removing Trump. https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1244991241055547393

We noted last week that Pelosi opened the door to Dems’ role in delaying Congress’s Covid-19 response.

McConnell says Dem impeachment push distracted government from coronavirus threat

It came up while we were tied down in the impeachment trial. And I think it diverted the attention of the government because everything every day was all about impeachment,” McConnell said… Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)… said he started studying the potential impact of the virus in late January. “The first time I recall talking about the China virus in the media was on your show, probably late in January, and I had started studying the problem in mid-January,” he said. “I have to tell you that in mid-January and late-January, unfortunately, Washington, especially the Congress, was consumed with another matter — you may recall the partisan impeachment of the president,” Cotton added… http://hill.cm/FAm8mSI

@GOP: Jan. 15, 2020: On the day the CDC reports the coronavirus arrived in America, Pelosi was handing out pens while signing her sham articles of impeachment… https://gop.com/democrats-all-delay-all-the-time

Ex-Secret Service agent @dbongino: The Democrats are terrified that they ignored the Wuhan Virus in order to focus on the impeachment fiasco… They’re freaking out… the coming storm. Bank on it.

We have opined that the Covid-19 panic will greatly alter Americans’ views.  The changes have begun.

House Speaker Pelosi tries to steal the election; Says the country must move toward vote by mail

“In terms of the elections, I think we’ll probably be moving to vote by mail,” Pelosi said….

https://magamedia.org/2020/03/31/house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-tries-to-steal-the-election-says-the-country-must-move-toward-vote-by-mail/

U.S. Government Intercepts Thousands of Fake ID’s From China

https://nationalfile.com/u-s-government-intercepts-thousands-of-fake-ids-from-china/

After Congressional Coronavirus Meetings, Pelosi Bought $5 Million in Amazon Stock Before U.S. Retailers Were Forced to Close; and She Already Made Millions – Paul Pelosi, the speaker’s husband, got in at a price of $1,600 per share and grabbed 3,000 shares on Jan. 17… https://truepundit.com/after-congressional-coronavirus-meetings-pelosi-bought-5-million-n-amazon-stock-before-u-s-retailers-were-forced-to-close-and-she-already-made-millions/

AOC: New York Gov Cuomo’s Response ‘Creating a Class and Race Issue’ During Coronavirus Crisis – “If you called for a suspension or moratorium on mortgage payments, then we should also call for that same treatment on rent payments,” said Rep. Ocasio-Cortez. “We’re kind of creating a class and race issue. We’re essentially rewarding and offering preferential treatment to landowners and folks who are more wealthy, and we’re not offering that same kind of relief to renters,” she added…

https://hannity.com/media-room/aoc-new-york-gov-cuomos-response-creating-a-class-and-race-issue-during-coronavirus-crisis/

Dismantling democracy? Virus used as excuse to quell dissent

https://apnews.com/dffb2fa43d0c5fddc4508f2558603e67

Crisis is the rallying cry of the tyrant.” — James Madison

If the Covid-19 panic turns out to be a counterfeit national emergency…

@KatiePavlich: Mayors or governors threatening jail time for violations of stay-at-home orders while they let criminals out of jail because of Wuhan coronavirus is a…joke

@JordanSchachtel: I hope people… waiting for vaccine, realize that we still don’t have a vaccine from SARS outbreak, and it’s been over a decade of R&D.A policy of locking down & waiting for a vaccine is guaranteed to result in destruction of USA.

@IngrahamAngle: The real test:  How many “journalists” who have dismissed hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin in COVID patients would say no to taking it themselves if seriously ill?

[TDS is so acute in the MSM; we think many would refuse HPQ as a futile act of spite toward DJT.]

Hospital Exec Fired After Discussing Ways of Ensuring Trump Supporters Get Coronavirus

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hosptital-exec-fired-after-discussing-ways-ensuring-trump-supporters-get-coronavirus

Sweden…to Let Coronavirus to Run Its Course in Country without Destroying Its Economy or Future https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/sweden-decides-to-let-coronavirus-play-out-in-country-without-destroying-its-economy-or-future/

Graham to Chinese Ambassador: ‘If You Don’t Shut Those Wet Markets Down, Our Trading Relationship Is Going to Change’   https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/03/31/graham-to-chinese-ambassador-if-you-dont-shut-those-wet-markets-down-our-trading-relationship-is-going-to-change/

Suspected SARS virus and flu samples found in luggage: FBI report describes China’s ‘biosecurity risk’ [Nov 2018] https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sars-virus-and-flu-found-in-luggage-fbi-report-describes-chinas-biosecurity-risk-144526820.html

At the Covid-19 briefing on Tuesday, DJT and Dr. Birx asserted the next 30 days are critical. DJT said “I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead.  We are going to go through a very tough two weeks… It’s going to be a painful two weeks… This is a plague… a matter of life or death.

@ChloeSalsameda: Dr. Birx says if full mitigation efforts are taken & people follow social distancing guidelines: COVID-19 will recede in early July; 100k -200k people projected to die; If mitigation efforts are not taken, 1 million-2 million could die. [Current data does NOT support this.]

Fauci offers more conservative death rate in academic article than in public virus briefings [WHY?]

In New England Journal of Medicine, nation’s infectious disease chief suggests COVID-19 mortality rate may end like bad seasonal flu…“[T]he case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Fauci wrote in an article… on March 26…A day after the NEJM article was published, Fauci was back to repeating the higher fatality number in public rather than “considerably less than 1%.” “The mortality of [COVID-19] is about 10 times [flu],” Fauci… on March 27…

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/fauci-offers-more-conservative-death-rate-academic-article-public-virus#.XoO-UAGaCto.twitter

Here is the model that Birx mentioned: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections  The model shows ‘peak hospital resource’ use will occur on April 15.

@JordanSchachtel: A reporter should ask Dr Birx why she prefers the models funded by Bill Gates as opposed to the Stanford/Oxford projections. They should also ask her if she believes she has a conflict of interest because she sits on the board of a Gates-funded foundation.

JoeConchaTV: Dr. Fauci pushes back at [CNN’s] Acosta questions around the U.S. not acting early. “In a perfect world, it would have been nice to have known what was happening there (in China). We didn’t. But I believe, Jim, that we acted very early.”  Acosta asks Fauci if social distancing should have happened sooner. Fauci responds while pointing to a graph – “If there was no virus in the background, there was nothing to mitigate.

@NolteNC: Birx admitting the medical community misjudged this early as SARS-like is also big and explains so much. Media narratives annihilated today by the very people — Fauci and Birx — the media held up as the true professionals. Very bad day for fake media today.

Trump revealed that 500,000 tests are not being used at the state level.

Remember the Young Woman Who Died While Waiting for a Coronavirus Test in New Orleans? …Yeah, Well Now the Truth Is Out… as a way to whip up panic and attack the Trump administration.

A second coronavirus test came back negative on Natasha Ott… https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/remember-the-young-woman-who-died-while-waiting-for-a-coronavirus-test-in-new-orleans-yeah-that-was-a-media-lie-too/

 

University of Minnesota, Mayo Clinic ready COVID-19 antibody tests in state

https://www.startribune.com/u-mayo-ready-covid-19-antibody-tests-in-minnesota/569233992/

 

Covid-19 antibody testing will enable officials to glean a more accurate accounting of how pervasive Covid-19 is/was and its fatality rate.

 

Mike Lindell retooled his My Pillow USA factory into a mask-making operation that will manufacture 50k masks/day by Friday to meet soaring demand.  At the WH on Monday, Lindell said people should turn to God and the Bible.  So, liberals & MSM types are mocking him – while they contribute zero.

 

Joe Biden has yet another head-scratching media appearance

https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/joe-biden-has-yet-another-gaffe-filled-media-appearance/

 

@JasonMillerinDC: Biden Says [yesterday] Trump Should Establish A Task Force W/ Someone In Charge…Trump Put One Together In Jan   https://twitter.com/JasonMillerinDC/status/1245080100514803712

 

@bennyjohnson: It’s kind of strange that after Joe Biden was accused of sexual assault, his Senior Adviser, @SymoneDSanders went through and deleted all of her Tweets about Kavanaugh.

 

Andrew Cuomo said he will not run for the presidency.

 

IG Horowitz Found ‘Apparent Errors or Inadequately Supported Facts’ in Every Single FBI FISA Application He Reviewed – Horowitz’s office said in a report released Tuesday that of the 29 applications — all of which involved U.S. citizens – that were pulled from “8 FBI field offices of varying sizes,” the FBI could not find Woods Files for four of the applications, while the other 25 all had “apparent errors or inadequately supported facts.”…

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/ig-horowitz-found-apparent-errors-or-inadequately-supported-facts-in-every-single-fbi-fisa-application-he-reviewed/

 

GOP @RepDougCollins: Unbelievable. Inspector General Horowitz found 4 of the 29 Woods Files were missing… and in 3 instances, it’s possible they never existed. This is exactly why we need to reform our FISA system. We can’t let what happened to @realDonaldTrump in 2016 ever happen again!

 

FBI problems with FISA warrants extend beyond Russia case, DOJ watchdog warns

Inspector General Michael Horowitz says FBI is going a poor job complying with Wood procedures designed to protect Americans civil liberties in surveillance warrants.

https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/fbi-problems-fisa-warrants-goes-far-beyond-russia-case-doj-watchdog-warns

 

In Brennan’s Private Sector Stint, a Chinese Connection

John Brennan, President Obama’s nominee to be director of the CIA… went to work for a private intelligence contractor called The Analysis Corporation, he entered a murky milieu of transnational private spy firms with taxpayer-fueled profits… Brennan’s corporate parent was looking for lucrative contracts from Chinese state-owned companies at the same time Brennan’s unit worked on sensitive US intelligence issues in Washingtonhttps://www.cnbc.com/id/100440555

 

The Babylon Bee: Teachers Urge Government to Reopen Schools before Students Learn to Think for Themselves    https://babylonbee.com/news/teachers-warn-parents-arent-properly-equipped-to-indoctrinate-children

end

Let us close with this terrific interview of Michael Pento with Greg hunter

 

The Real Crash – Inflationary Implosion of Bond Market – Michael Pento

By Greg Hunter On April 1, 2020

Money manager Michael Pento has long warned the global financial system was “not sustainable or viable” because of record debt creation. Pento has also long said, “This was the biggest debt bubble in history, and it is going to pop someday.” That day has arrived. Now, Pento says, “This is a global depression just like we had in the 1930’s combined with a 2008 style credit crisis. That’s what it is. I was on your program about three months ago, and I predicted a global recession. That was wrong. It is a global depression. . . . We have learned that the S&P 500 earnings will decrease by 10% in the second quarter. We also know that GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the second quarter is projected to decline by 35%. . . . We also know, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, that the unemployment rate in the United States could surge to 42%. . . . April is going to be a disaster. We are not in a recession, we are in a depression, and it is global in nature.”

Pento also cautions, “So, what do you have left for the month of April? The lockdown is going to continue, and then you are facing a plethora of earnings warnings and economic data that is going to be absolutely horrific. . . . I think the stock market has to go lower for the month of April, and then I think we start to find our legs probably in the summer. . . .We have to get through this lock down, and the news is going to be the likes of which none of us have ever seen before–bad, horrific, rancid . . . It will be the worst economic data ever reported. . . . You are going to see GDP plunge at a 35% annualized rate. That has never happened before.”

As bad as this sounds, Pento says it’s going to get worse, “We are not headed into it–it’s here. This is it, a global depression the likes of which we have never seen before, but this is not the real crash. We are going to come out of this, but we are going to come out of this the wrong way, by borrowing and printing money. . . . But that is not the real crash. The real crash is when you have an inflationary implosion of the bond market, and there is not a darn thing central banks can do about it because you can’t bail out inflation by increasing the rate of inflation. . . . After the inflationary implosion of the bond market . . . . and they realize they are destroying the economy because of inflation, they will throw in the towel, and then there will be bail-ins and resets. We are going to default on the debt two ways. First, through inflation, and that’s going to fail. Then, we are going to deflate and rest.”

Pento also predicts, that in the end, the bond market will collapse, “Yields will rise, bond prices will crash.”

Pento thinks physical gold and silver are some of the “must have” assets. He has also recently doubled his investment in precious metals.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies.

oin Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with money manager Michael Pento of PentoPort.com.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

There is free information on PentoPort.com. You can also sign up for a free five week trial of Michael Pento’s podcast by clicking here

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

 

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