APRIL 2//LONDON SPOT GOLD UP $31.80 TO $1612.50//FUTURES//JUNE 1631.00///SILVER UP 65 CENTS TO $14.50// FUTURES: $14.62//MEXICO ORDERS ALL MINES SHUT AND THAT MEANS THE USA CANNOT GET ANY SILVER//DTCC SHUT DOWN IN MARCH: WHO ON EARTH ARE CLEARING?//PERTH MINT ANNOUNCES ALL GOLD SOLD OUT//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE FROM USA, SPAIN, ITALY, ISRAEL//USA REPORTS A HUGE 6.7 MILLION FOLKS APPLIED FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE: TOTAL FOR THE LAST 2 WEEKS: 10 MILLION//OTHER THAN THAT EVERYTHING IS OK!!???

GOLD:$1612.50  UP $31.80   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

Silver:$14.50//UP $.65  London spot price  

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

i)Gold : $1615.10  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $14.47//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $1624.50

JUNE GOLD:  $1630.80  CLOSE 1.30 PM

 

 

 

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $14.62…1:30 PM.

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $1900. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:   650/1433

ISSUED:  125 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,578.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/01/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 04/03/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 902
099 H DB AG 153
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 166
132 C SG AMERICAS 6
152 C DORMAN TRADING 1
323 C HSBC 3
323 H HSBC 219
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 25
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 16 2
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 137
661 C JP MORGAN 125 650
685 C RJ OBRIEN 4 3
686 C INTL FCSTONE 22
690 C ABN AMRO 58 127
709 C BARCLAYS 9
800 C MAREX SPEC 21 8
880 H CITIGROUP 143
905 C ADM 17 49
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1,433 1,433
MONTH TO DATE: 21,909

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 1,433 NOTICE(S) FOR 143,300 OZ (4.457 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  21909 NOTICES FOR 2,190,900 OZ  (68.146 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

 

 

18 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 90,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 742 for 3,710,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $6657 UP $19 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $7050 UP $100

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $31.80: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

 

WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES

 

GLD: 968.75 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

 

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TONIGHT//

 

A WITHDRAWAL OF: .355 MILLION OZ

THIS WAS TO PAY FOR FEES //THE  BILL COMES ON THE FIRST OF THE MONTH

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 394.826  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 783 CONTRACTS FROM 139,256 DOWN TO 138,473 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 11 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE LOSS IN OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD A TINY NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 14 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 769 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  769 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 769 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 769 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.845 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 11 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

3.900  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 11 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS MAY HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A TINY NET LOSS OF 14 CONTRACTS OR 0.700 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER.

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MAY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

1919 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 1919 CONTRACTS) OR 9.595 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 960 CONTRACTS OR 4.797 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 9.59 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 64.43% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          903.08 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR                   9.59 MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 783, WITH THE   $0.11 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /WEDNESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 769 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A TINY  TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  14 CONTRACTS (WITH THE 11 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 769 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 783 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 11 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $13.85 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY AS WELL AS A HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.696 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 99.42% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 18 NOTICE(S) FOR  90,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 3.900 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 5,697 CONTRACTS TO 489,955 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR COMEX LOSS IN PRICE  OF $7.70 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH SOME LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A FAIR  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND YET THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT FALL IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD. THUS THE LOSS ON THE COMEX WAS DUE TO  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ( A POSITIVE), SOME LONG LIQUIDATION  ( A NEGATIVE) AND OUR NORMAL  GAIN IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (POSITIVE), . WE LOST A SMALL 2,274 CONTRACTS  (7.073 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 3423 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 3423.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3423.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 489,955. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2,274 CONTRACTS: 5,697 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3423 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 2,274 CONTRACTS OR 7.073 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $7.70 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT CONSIDERABLE FALL IN  PRICE, SURPRISINGLY WE  HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 7.073  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (FALL $7.70). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE SOME WHAT SUCCESSFUL  ( SEE BELOW) 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 WE HAD  A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3423) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN COMEX OI.(5,697 OI):  TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2,274 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A MONSTROUS  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT  PAPER LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//WEDNESDAY

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 12,208 CONTRACTS OR 1,220,800 oz OR 37,97 TONNES (2 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6104 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY  (

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 37.97 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 37.97/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.06% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2360.84  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (//(*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE)
APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               37.94  TONNES

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 783 CONTRACTS FROM 139,256 DOWN TO 138,473 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) ZERO/TINY LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 769 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 769; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 769 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 783 CONTRACTS TO THE 769 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY TINY LOSS OF 14 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  0.700 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ//APRIL 3.90 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 11 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 769 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. THE ENTIRE LOSS OF COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR PHYSICALS.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP  46.12 POINTS OR 1.69%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 194.27 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 246.69 POINTS OR 1.37%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.93%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0961 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0961 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 67.1102 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 5,697 CONTRACTS TO 489,955 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI LOSS WAS SET WITH A STRONG PAPER LOSS OF $7.70 IN GOLD PRICING //WEDNESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (3423 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)    SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3) MONSTROUS INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH THAT HUGE STANDING  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A FAIR LOSS ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 2274 CONTRACTS.

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3423 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 3423 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3423 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  2274 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3423 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5697 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL BY $7.70). THEY WERE SOMEWHAT  SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS, AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7.073 TONNES.

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2274 CONTRACTS OR 227,400 OZ OR 7.073 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  489,955 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 48.99 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1523 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1523/2200 OR 69.26% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 162,486 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY179,556 contracts//

APRIL 2

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

547,853.000

OZ

BRINKS

 

17040  1/2

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
1433 notice(s)
 143,300 OZ
(4.457 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3264 contracts
(3264 oz)
10.15 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
21,909 notices
2,190,900 OZ
68.146 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 3 kilobar entries

 

i ) We had 0 deposits into the dealer

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into BRINKS:  547,853.0000 OZ

(17,040 AND 1/2 KILOBARS)

 

and a phony entries

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 547,853.000  oz  or 17040 1/2 kilobars  17.04 tonnes

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  NIL   oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 3

 

a)out of Brinks: 361,312.900 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer of Brinks

b) Out of Delaware: 961.53 oz (30 kilobars) adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer of Delaware

c) Out of Int. Delaware:  964.53   (30 kilobars) adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer of Int. Delaware

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 4697 contracts for a loss of 2681 contacts. We had 3,174 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A VERY STRONG 493 contracts or 49,300 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and they also negated a fiat bonus

 

 

May saw its ANOTHER LOSS of 76 contracts to stand at  2152.

June saw a LOSS of 3187 contracts up to 358,837

 

 

We had 1433 notices filed today for 143300 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 125 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1433 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 650 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,909) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (4697 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (1433 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,517,300 OZ OR 78.29 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (21,909)x 100 oz)  + (4697 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1433 x 100 oz )which equals 2,517,300 oz standing OR 78.29 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

We gained 484 contracts OR an additional 48,400 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the this side of the pond, first before travelling to London..

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

341,434.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.62 TONNES

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  517,645.900  OZ OR 16.10  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 111.34 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS

total registered or dealer gold:   4,097,384.579 oz or  127.445 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  341,434.443 oz (or 10.6200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:  517,645.900 oz or 16.10 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 3,579,738.6  (111.34 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  3,379,738.6 (111.34 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   910,496,521.789 oz 326.485 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS

 

1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 

 

2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD

end

 

 

April 2/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 755 CONTRACTS FROM 139,289 DOWN TO 138,501 (AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 11 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/WEDNESDAY.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH 1)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING COUPLED WITH PERHAPS SOME  LONG LIQUIDATION. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 56 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH LOST 3 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 4 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN, GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR 5,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 1296 DOWN TO 77,363.

JUNE SAW A GAIN OF ONE CONTRACT UP TO 5.

 

 

We, today, had  18 notice(s) FILED  for 90,000, OZ for the MAR, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

APRIL 2/2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,971.200 oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
18
CONTRACT(S)
(90,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
38 contracts
 190,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  742 contracts

3,710,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into Scotia: 600,971.200 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.170 million

total customer deposits today: 600,971.200   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of CNT:  41,697.270 oz
ii) Out of Scotia:  250,978.190 oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  292,675.460  oz

We had 0 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.178 million

total dealer + customer silver:  321.170 million oz

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 18 contract(s) FOR 90,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 742 x 5,000 oz = 3,710,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.( 56) and the number of notices served upon today 18 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 742 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (56)- number of notices served upon today (18) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.equals 3,900,000 oz.

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT  THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  60,001 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY:  53,251 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 53,251 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 266 million  OZ  38.03% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -.07% ((APRIL 2/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.07% to NAV:   (APRIL 2/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -0.07%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.81 TRADING 14.81///DISCOUNT 0.00

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

APRIL 2/2020/  968.75 tonnes*

IN LAST 791 TRADING DAYS:   +24.06 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 691 TRADING DAYS;+199.04  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

 

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

 

 

APRIL 2.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

394.826 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.18/ and libor 6 month duration 1.20

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .98

GOLD NON EXISTENT

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.24%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.00

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.24

GOLD NON EXISTENT

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Wall Street already in Oct were cutting jobs whle receiving trillions in emergency loans and this is prior to the epidemic

a must read.

Russ and Pam Martens.

(Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Wall Street cut 68,000 jobs and got trillions in emergency loans prior to epidemic

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Wednesday, April 1, 2020

On March 26 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell went on the Today show to deliver one message: “There is nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy.” Recently U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has appeared on the White House lawn to tell reporters that this is nothing like the last financial crisis.

Fed regional bank presidents have appeared on cable news asserting that the Wall Street banks have plenty of capital and today’s economic distress is caused solely by the coronavirus. Even New York Times columnist and perpetual Wall Street cheerleader, Paul Krugman, was on CNBC this week reassuring viewers that today’s problem was not like the last financial crisis.

And yet the facts keep getting in the way of this “official” narrative.

… 

The first coronavirus COVID-19 case was discovered in China in December 2019 and didn’t become a major issue in the United States until February 2020. But on October 7, 2019, we reported that Wall Street banks had announced a staggering 68,000 job cuts as the Fed pumped $310 billion more in unprecedented loans to Wall Street. That doesn’t sound like there was “nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy,” the narrative that Powell is pushing.

On October 9 we reported that Powell had appeared at a speaking event in Denver at the National Association of Business Economists and acknowledged that a larger, long-term bailout of Wall Street was on its way. That also doesn’t sound like everything was fine in the financial world before the coronavirus hit. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/04/wall-street-had-cut-68000-jobs-an…

END

NOW it is the Perth Mint that announces it has sold out of gold kilobars

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Perth Mint sold out of gold kilobars

 Section: 

Australia’s Largest Mint Sees Surge in Gold, Silver Sales

By Ranjeetha Pakiam
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, April 1, 2020

The Perth Mint, Australia’s largest, reported a jump in gold and silver sales last month as demand for havens surged amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The mint, which has been in business for more than a century, said gold coin and minted bar sales totaled 93,775 ounces in March, the highest since April 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Silver sales almost tripled to 1.74 million ounces from 605,634 ounces in February.

.The mint’s gold kilobars were sold out last week due to the surge in demand amid a squeeze in the market, according to Chief Executive Officer Richard Hayes. It has reopened the kilobar manufacturing facility to ensure additional stock is available, and separately has diverted production to its popular 1-ounce Silver Kangaroo coin to meet a backlog of orders, he said last week.

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Craig Hemke highlights the criminality behind the comex

a must read…

Craig Hemke/Sprott

Craig Hemke: The CME Opens Pandora’s Box

April 2, 2020

The CME Group may have unwittingly sealed the fate of the COMEX and the entire fractional reserve and digital derivative gold & silver pricing scheme…

 by Craig Hemke via Sprott Money News

With mines, mints, and refineries closed around the world due to coronavirus, the demand for physical gold has blown through the roof. This has led to some drastic measures by the CME Group, which in turn may have unwittingly sealed the fate of the COMEX and the entire fractional reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme.

This latest crisis began last Tuesday, when the spot market for gold appeared to seize up as the futures price roared ahead following the announcement of formalized QE∞ by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The event has been chronicled by many analysts and experts, with even Reuters and Bloomberg joining in the reporting.

As the Reuters article notes, a clear shortage of the COMEX standard 100-ounce bars had developed. To counter this— and in a desperate attempt to maintain the integrity of their trading system —the CME Group immediately responded by amending the delivery procedures of their standard COMEX contract. Instead of the required 100-ounce bars, the COMEX would now be able to deliver fractions of 400-ounce London Good Delivery bars as well.

First of all, this exposes the charade of what has always passed for the bi-monthly physical settlement process on COMEX. Oh sure, the COMEX vaults may have always shown 8,000,000 ounces of gold, but quite obviously, none of that was actually available for physical delivery. Instead, each delivery month consisted of simple journal-entry transfers of nothing but warrants and warehouse receipts. To maintain the charade, one bank would issue some “gold” and another would take delivery. We’ve written about this scheme on countless occasions, most recently here:

But, whatever. Let’s get back to the crux of the matter.

Obviously, the CME Group knew that they had a problem on their hands last week, which is why the sudden rush to amend the COMEX delivery rules to allow for London bar usage. The current front and delivery month is the Apr20, and that contract was due to go “off the board” and into delivery two days ago, Monday, March 30. Due to the virus-related shortages, The CME clearly anticipated a sudden surge of demand for actual physical delivery in April.

And did they ever get it! As of the COMEX close on Monday, the total amount of Apr20 contracts still open and “standing for delivery” was 25,595! A usual/normal delivery month on COMEX usually sees 8,000-10,000 “deliveries” for up to 1,000,000 ounces of warrants, etc. For Apr20, however, there is a request for 2,559,500 ounces, and because of the current shortages, most of these contract holders actually want real, physical metal.

Apr20 delivery notices began to be posted on Monday evening…and look at the volume! Be sure to note that the House Account of JPMorgan had to make a delivery of 7,000 contracts for 700,000 ounces. Not only is this close to 22 metric tonnes of gold, it’s also more than 2X the stated position limit of 3,000 contracts.

Note, too, that ScotiaBank was also forced to make delivery from their House Account of 235,100 ounces or about 8 metric tonnes. And note that, so far, HSBC has not posted a single delivery. But they’re next. How do we know this? Check this massive, unprecedented re-allocation of gold from eligible to registered that took place late last week. JPM took the steps necessary to deliver 7,923 Apr20 contracts, while HSBC looks to have prepared for 3,129.

OK, so now let’s look ahead and consider the title of this post.

It’s clear that the virus-related shutdown of mines, refiners, and mints is having a dramatic impact on the supply of immediately-deliverable gold. And this comes at a time when physical gold demand is surging. This places wholesalers and dealers in a very tough position. They need physical gold NOW but have very few options for acquiring it.

And so they’re turning to the COMEX. And why not? The CME Group has maintained for years that their pricing scheme is fair, sacrosanct, and backed by physical delivery. They post vault stock reports every day of the week that purport to show a physical vault inventory of over 8,000,000 ounces. So if you’re a dealer and you need immediate metal, why not just pony up to the bar at COMEX and stand for delivery? After all, the CME itself claims that the gold is all there and just waiting for someone to ask for it.

This “delivery” illusion worked out just fine…until last week. And now the CME Group, in their rush to maintain “the integrity of their exchange”, may have just sealed the exchange’s fate.

Why? Because they’ve opened Pandora’s Box. By stop-gapping COMEX delivery with London bars— and by forcing The Bullion Banks that operate on COMEX to actually deliver physical metal versus their paper short positions —the exchange itself may now be put in an untenable position.

Watch closely what happens next. After Monday’s initial deliveries, there will still be about 8,000 Apr20 contracts standing and open. Most of these will likely be demanded for true physical settlement, too. Well, now that COMEX is open for business as a physical distribution vehicle, what’s to stop funds, wholesalers, and dealers from paying full margin and buying even more Apr20s as the month progresses? Nothing! So watch to see if that Apr20 open interest number continues to climb through the month.

Next, watch to see what happens in May. Though the May20 is not a front/delivery month on the COMEX calendar, there’s nothing to stop an entity from buying a contract and demanding immediate delivery in May. As of Monday, total open interest for this contract was at 2,338. In the days ahead, watch very closely to see if that total begins to grow.

And finally, even though the CME/LBMA/COMEX may survive April, who’s to say they’ll survive the next major delivery month of June? Now that the proverbial cat is out of the bag and the entire world knows that COMEX will deliver actual physical metal if pushed—and with no other readily-available stores of metal around due to the virus—what if 50,000 contracts stand in June? What if 100,000 stand?? Do you see where this might be headed???

In the end, the CME may have unwittingly sealed the fate of their pricing scheme last week by rushing to make COMEX a physical delivery facility. While the exchange is likely to survive April, the months of May and June will likely pose a significant challenge. Only a quick containment of the coronavirus may assuage their crisis. If the mines, mints, and refineries can re-open in the next 45-60 days, perhaps the fractional reserve bullion banking system will be salvaged. If not? Well, let’s just say that gold investors and stackers are in for a VERY interesting summer.

END

This is going to be very interesting as Mexico orders all mines to shut down.

Where is the uSA going to get its silver?

(Kitco)

Silver market faces supply crunch as Mexico curtails production

Editor’s Note: With so much market volatility, stay on top of daily news! Get caught up in minutes with our speedy summary of today’s must-read news and expert opinions. Sign up here!

(Kitco News) – Expected mine shutdowns of at least a month in Mexico will reduce the global silver supply since the country is the world’s largest silver producer.

Nevertheless, analysts are not rushing to say this will automatically mean higher silver prices, as normally occurs when there are reduced supplies in any commodity. That’s because in this instance, industrial demand is also suffering as the COVID-19 pandemic impacts the global economy.

Further, with refinery and transportation issues but sharply rising physical demand, silver was described as a market “in turmoil.”

The Mexican government this week declared the pandemic as a national health emergency and as a result is forcing all non-essential businesses to close up shop until at least April 30. Silver miners likely are considered non-essential. Some mining and exploration companies have already said they are halting operations.

According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey, in 2019, Mexico produced 6.3 thousand metric tons of silver, which represented about 23% of global mine supply. Statistics from the consultancy CPM Group put 2019 output at around 740 million ounces, of which 173 million were from Mexico.

“They are the largest silver-producing country by a wide margin,” said Jeff Christian, managing director of CPM Group. “So interruptions of silver-mine production from Mexico would hit the market.”

On top of this, Christian said, refinery production in Mexico and elsewhere is being curtailed, and the industry faces transportation issues. Much of the world’s precious metals are shipped by air freight due to their high value relative to their weight.

“You can’t even ship refined metal easily from country to country because the planes that normally carry that aren’t flying,” Christian said. “The whole precious-metals complex is being hit by supply and supply-chain disruptions. That is going to continue to be a problem and an issue. Mexico joining the lockdown just makes it that much worse.”

Impact on prices uncertain
While shuttered production will disrupt the market’s supply-and-demand fundamentals, some analysts are not convinced that this will have a major impact on silver prices in the near term. Others say the outlook is hard to forecast at the moment since fabrication demand is also suffering, even though physical investment demand is picking up.

While silver prices are off their 11-year lows, they continue to struggle to find consistent momentum. Silver also continues to underperform gold, with the gold-silver ratio hovering at 113, just down from recent record highs. May silver futures last traded at $14.145 an ounce, relatively unchanged on the day.

“Demand for silver, or the lack there of, is receiving all the attention right now as the world remains worried about a global recession,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Although weak global growth due to the spreading coronavirus will continue to weigh on silver’s industrial demand, Hansen said that investment demand could end up driving the market. He described the silver market as a Sleeping Beauty just waiting to be woken up.

“From an investor’s point of view, silver should do better than gold in a supply crunch,” he said.

Hansen added that currently he is more bullish on silver than gold; however, he added that the market still has to get past current conditions.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that he is not surprised that Mexico is halting its mining operations. Mexico’s announcement comes less than a week after South Africa shut down its mining, impacting the supply of platinum and palladium.

“From a fundamental supply-and-demand perspective, this will tighten up the market a little,” he said. “But I don’t know what prices will do in the near term.”

However, Melek added that the issue in the silver market isn’t just the supply/demand picture. Market volatility remains relatively high as investors remain concerned about the impact the coronavirus is having on the global economy, he said.

“Right now, this is a liquidity issue and until we really understand the full impact of the virus will have on the economy, investors aren’t going to be focused on supply and demand,” he said. “Right now, we don’t know how long these global lockdown measures are going to last.”

But Melek also isn’t completely dismissing the silver-supply issue. He added that this will provide long-term support for the metal. He also said that with silver continuing to underperform gold at historic levels, there is long-term value in the marketplace.

“Once we understand the full impact the virus has on the global economy and we can see beyond the short-term volatility, then silver’s supply issues will be a major factor in the price,” he said. “This sets us up for future higher prices.”

Meanwhile, Christian pointed out that there are numerous cross-currents in the market, not only the reduced mine supply but reduced fabrication demand of silver for industrial purposes but increased investment demand. Historically, industrial uses have been the largest source of silver demand.

“A lot of the factories where silver is used in fabrication of products – from solar panels to electronics to jewelry – are shut down too,” Christian said. “So not only is the supply being negatively effected, but fabrication demand is being negatively affected too.”

However, investors have stepped up purchases of silver and gold bars and coins, he continued. For instance, he pointed out that U.S. Mint data show that sales of American Eagle silver coins jumped to some 5.5 million ounces in March from around 650,000 in February.

“While you have a reduction in refined supply, a reduction in fabrication demand, you are actually seeing this increased demand for physical silver in coins and bars,” Christian said. “But the supply is being constrained because you can’t ship the stuff around, and the factories that make the blanks [for coins] are closed. The mints that make the coins are closed.

“So the market is in turmoil right now in terms of the logistics of getting metal from A to B.”

By Neils Christensen and Allen Sykora

END

SPECIAL THANKS TO DOUG C. FOR SENDING THIS TO US:

Gundlach Sounds Alarm on ‘Paper Gold’ ETFs Raking in Billions

Katherine Greifeld

Markets

AND THIS ONE:

Gold Dealers Report Big Shortages of Small Bars and Coins

By

  • Small gold bars and coins are in high demand from consumers
  • The size of different products is a key reason for the crunch
Surging demand and disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic have created a shortage of the small gold bars most popular with consumers.
Surging demand and disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic have created a shortage of the small gold bars most popular with consumers.
Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg

When people are worried about the future they turn to gold to protect their savings. That’s rarely been more true than today.

Surging demand and disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic have created a shortage of the small gold bars most popular with consumers. Those who do manage to get their hands on metal have to pay up –- well above the per-ounce prices being quoted on financial markets in London and New York.

Some dealers are desperately contacting clients to see if anyone is willing to sell their gold bars and coins, and offering a rare premium over spot prices. Others have given up trying to trade altogether.

“People want to buy, not to sell gold,” said Mark O’Byrne, the founder of GoldCore, a dealer based in Dublin. “We have a buyers’ waiting list and we emailed our clients seeing who wished to sell their gold. At this time there is roughly only one or two sellers for every 99 buyers.”

Pay Up

Spot gold traded around $1,580/oz on Wednesday
SOURCE: Websites of BullionStar, GoldCore, Degussa
Data shows average price for 1 oz gold bars and most popular coins at 5 p.m. in London on Wednesday

Size is a key reason for the crunch. While there’s plenty of gold in a big trading hub like London, banks and other institutional investors there typically use large bars of 400 ounces. That’s not practical for a regular person who may not want to cough up more than $600,000 for a single bar. Instead, retail investors prefer kilobars (about 32 ounces), 1-ounce bars and coins, or something even smaller.

Read more: Gold Coins Have Never Sold at Premium This High for So Long

Those smaller items are getting hard to find for several reasons. First, of course, demand has exploded. But there’s also been pressure on supply, as global travel shuts down and some refineries and mints have stopped operating or capped production because of local lockdowns.

Premiums in the retail market “have exploded,” said Markus Krall, chief executive of German precious-metals retailer Degussa. The average price of products in shops is somewhere between 10% and 15% over spot prices, which he’s never seen before, Krall said. Demand, too, is at the highest level he’s experienced.

Bullion dealers see premiums exploding recently

Certain products also command more of a premium than others. Kilobars manufactured by Argor-Heraeus SA, one of the big Swiss refiners whose plant has been closed since last week due to the health crisis, were selling for over 6% above spot, said Ronan Manly, an analyst at Singapore dealer BullionStar.

“We are seeing an unprecedented situation where huge customer demand and the disconnect between physical prices and spot prices is driving buy premiums high,” he said. Spot prices coming from London or New York “are completely detached from the reality on the ground.”

END

An absolute joke!!

CME, LBMA say gold stocks healthy in New York and London

(Reuters) – U.S. exchange operator CME Group Inc (CME.O) and London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) said on Wednesday that gold stocks remain healthy and depositories are operating normally, as the markets work toward easing market volatility.

The latest published numbers show record stocks of 8,326 tonnes of gold in London, which is equivalent to 666,045 standard 400-ounce gold bars, according to the LBMA, which oversees the London trade hub.

Meanwhile, CME said its New York depositories held 9.2 million ounces of gold with 5.6 million ounces eligible as of March 30, nearing a record high in terms of stock levels.

CME Group last week announced the initial listing of enhanced delivery gold futures that will be deliverable in 100-ounce bars, 400-ounce bars, or kilo bars, effective April 6.

The announcement came after LBMA and several major banks that trade gold asked CME to allow gold bars in London to be used to settle its contracts to ease disruption to trading.

-END-

Gold dealers report big shortages of coins and smaller bars

Bloomberg News

Thursday, April 2, 2020

When people are worried about the future they turn to gold to protect their savings. That’s rarely been more true than today.

Surging demand and disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic have created a shortage of the small gold bars most popular with consumers. Those who do manage to get their hands on metal have to pay up – well above the per- ounce prices being quoted on financial markets in London and New York.

Some dealers are desperately contacting clients to see if anyone is willing to sell their gold bars and coins, and offering a rare premium over spot prices. Others have given up trying to trade altogether.

“People want to buy, not to sell gold,” said Mark O’Byrne, the founder of GoldCore, a dealer based in Dublin. “We have a buyers’ waiting list and we emailed our clients seeing who wished to sell their gold. At this time there is roughly only one or two sellers for every 99 buyers.”

Size is a key reason for the crunch. While there’s plenty of gold in a big trading hub like London, banks and other institutional investors there typically use large bars of 400 ounces. That’s not practical for a regular person who may not want to cough up more than $600,000 for a single bar. Instead, retail investors prefer kilobars (about 32 ounces), 1-ounce bars and coins, or something even smaller.

Those smaller items are getting hard to find for several reasons. First, of course, demand has exploded. But there’s also been pressure on supply, as global travel shuts down and some refineries and mints have stopped operating or capped production because of local lockdowns.

Premiums in the retail market “have exploded,” said Markus Krall, chief executive of German precious-metals retailer Degussa. The average price of products in shops is somewhere between 10% and 15% over spot prices, which he’s never seen before, Krall said. Demand, too, is at the highest level he’s experienced.

Certain products also command more of a premium than others. Kilobars manufactured by Argor-Heraeus SA, one of the big Swiss refiners whose plant has been closed since last week due to the health crisis, were selling for over 6% above spot, said Ronan Manly, an analyst at Singapore dealer BullionStar.

“We are seeing an unprecedented situation where huge customer demand and the disconnect between physical prices and spot prices is driving buy premiums high,” he said. Spot prices coming from London or New York “are completely detached from the reality on the ground.”

* * *

end

Kevin to Me:  a dilly!!!

Kevin Wallien

4:13 PM (6 minutes ago)

to me

FYI since March 17th, I personally have had a request from my broker to transfer a few mining equities out of street name and into DRS. I have done this numerous times and usually takes 4 business days max. Today I finally sent an email asking why they were still in street name. They told me that the DTCC has been closed since March 20th and will not re-open until April 6th at earliest and that may be extended.

With the DTCC handling every single street name bond and stock and trillions in centrally cleared derivatives, this story needs more attention.

Kevin

AND THEN THIS:

Kevin Wallien

4:28 PM (9 minutes ago)

to me
So below is the DTCC link clearly stating that they are closed until April 6 for handling certificate requests in or out of street name.
And so as shown below I also sent them an email that asks how they can keep tabs on whether my or any street name securities are being posted as collateral by the broker dealers.
Probably will fall on deaf ears.

https://www.dtcc.com/dtcc-connection/articles/2020/march/18/continuing-to-serve-our-clients

Kevin
Begin forwarded message:
end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.0961/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  67.1102   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 46.12 POINTS OR 1.69%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 194.27 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 246.69 POINTS OR 1.37%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 99.60/Euro FALLS TO 1.0916

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.37/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 22.25 and Brent: 27.16

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.43%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.47% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.72%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.90: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.78

3k Gold at $1607.00 silver at: 14.40   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 19/100 in roubles/dollar) 78.888

3m oil into the 22 dollar handle for WTI and 27 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.37 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9668 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0555 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.43%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.60% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.24%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.6679..

US Futures Rebound From Plunge As Oil Jumps; All Eyes On Initial Claims

The market rollercoaster is back, if somewhat less stomach-churning, with US equity rebounding from yesterday’s plunge which – now that the pension fund frontrunning trade is over – was the worst start to a new quarter since the Great Depression.

Not Jim Cramer@Not_Jim_Cramer

Q2 is off to a good start

View image on Twitter

… as investors braced for the latest unemployment data which some skeptics expect could surge as much as a record 6.5 million.

Futures on all U.S. equity indexes climbed following sharp losses a day earlier, though traders will be wary of further evidence of how the spreading coronavirus is hitting the American job market, as global cases are set to surpass 1 million today. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fluctuated before turning higher, with energy shares outperforming as oil and gas stocks gained more than 5%, with Royal Dutch Shell, Total SA and BP jumping between 3.3% and 5.0%, thanks to the rise in oil prices.  Shares in British Airways owner IAG added 1.5% after a person familiar with the matter said British Airways was in talks with its union about a plan to suspend around 32,000 staff so it can survive the coronavirus pandemic.

Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia were mixed, with Thailand’s SET and South Korea’s Kospi Index rising, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and Japan’s Topix Index falling. In Japan, the Nikkei index ended down 1.37%, taking its losses to 25% so far this year as the BOJ bought less than the maximum ETFs for a second session.

The Topix declined 1.6%, with Hito Communications Holdings and Sankyo Tateyama falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.7%, with Sinopec Shanghai and JinJian Cereals Industry posting the biggest advances.

The market’s early bullish mood may deflate after today’s initial jobless claims report.  “U.S. jobless claims are expected to surge again and in this environment we cannot talk about a recovery in equities in the short term. The best you can hope for is stablization in the current environment,” said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners.

Initial claims for jobless benefits last week probably broke the week-ago record of 3.3 million, with 3.5 million expected, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

“We think last week’s print of just under 3.5 million is ripe for a dramatic upward revision,” said RBC Capital Markets’ chief U.S. economist, Tom Porcelli. “This week we look for another sizeable 4 million increase.”

Treasuries were broadly unchanged while investors again sought the safety of the U.S. dollar which hung on to recent gains despite the Fed’s announcement it would release Treasurys from its Supplemental Leverage Ratio calculation for one year, a move that in theory should release liquidity in the market and ease the dollar funding stress. The yield on safe-haven 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell as far as 0.5680% before rebounding.

“There had been fears about the bond market blowing up, but for the time being there’s a return to normal correleation in the market, so we don’t see a vicious cycle where bonds bring down equities and equities brings down bonds,” said Savary.

Euro zone government bond yields rose as investors cautiously moved back into riskier assets. The 10-year German government bond yield rose 3 basis points to -0.44%, rising away from the lows of -0.55% touched on Monday.

Oil surged as much as 13% after China unveiled plans to take advantage of a 60% plunge this year to add to stockpiles, coupled with optimism the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia could moderate. Trump said he had talked recently with the leaders of both Russia and Saudi Arabia and believed the two countries would make a deal within a “few days” to lower production and thereby bring prices back up.

Looking at the latest virus data, China and South Korea have shown signs of controlling the virus, reporting falling numbers of new cases, but progress remains fragile and infections are soaring globally. The World Health Organization said the global case count would reach 1 million and the death toll 50,000 in the next few days. It currently stands at 46,906. U.S President Donald Trump, who had initially played down the outbreak, told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that he is considering a plan to halt flights to coronavirus hot zones in the United States. “Difficult days are ahead for our nation,” Trump said.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index rose while commodity currencies rallied with crude prices after a report that China plans to boost its oil reserves. Norwegian krone led Group-of-10 currency gains; USD/NOK slumped as much as 2.2% as Brent oil surged more than 12% on report of China buying plans; the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars also climbed. The pound rose against both the dollar and the euro, rising an eighth straight day versus the shared currency — its best run since 2016. The yen weakened against the dollar for the first time in seven days on positioning flows. The Australian dollar gained 0.6% to $0.6110 and the Canadian dollar firmed 0.65% to C$1.4146. The euro traded down 0.3% at $1.0934 as the dollar advanced. The South African rand hit a fresh low while the Turkish lira touched a two-year low.

Expected data include jobless claims and factory orders. Walgreens Boots and Chewy are reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.9% to 2,493.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 311.87
  • Nikkei down 1.4% to 17,818.72
  • Topix down 1.6% to 1,329.87
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 23,280.06
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.7% to 2,780.64
  • Sensex down 4.1% to 28,265.31
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2% to 5,154.30
  • Kospi up 2.3% to 1,724.86
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.6 bps to -0.432%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.0921
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 1.338%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 0.734%
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 133.66
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 431.64
  • Brent futures up 10% to $27.31/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,590.11
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 99.55

Top Overnight News

  • Spain reported 950 new coronavirus fatalities on Thursday, the largest toll in a single day and taking the total number of deaths past 10,000
  • China said the U.S. is trying to shift the blame for the outbreak after American intelligence officials concluded the Asian nation concealed infections
  • China is moving ahead with plans to buy up oil for emergency reserves after prices crashed, according to people with knowledge of the matter
  • A county in central China has been put under lockdown again after a flare-up in coronavirus cases, pointing to the difficulty of sustaining outbreak containment in the face of carriers who show no signs of sickness
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel and auto-industry officials discussed in a phone conference Wednesday measures to minimize contagion risks and protect workers’ health once assembly lines resume churning out vehicles, according to people familiar with the talks
  • German companies have applied for state aid worth 10.6 billion euros ($11.6 billion) under a government program run by state bank KfW
  • U.K. house prices were climbing at the fastest pace in more than two years before the coronavirus pandemic almost brought the market to a standstill, according to Nationwide Building Society
  • The number of Spaniards filing for jobless claims surged in March, the latest example of how the coronavirus pandemic is upending people’s livelihoods around the world

Asian equity markets traded mixed after a weak handover from Wall St where stocks extended on the prior quarter’s historical rout to finish the day with losses of more than 4% and the DJIA suffered a near 1000-point drop amid ongoing coronavirus fears. ASX 200 (-1.98%) was dragged lower by its top-weighted financials sector after the RBNZ ordered all banks in New Zealand to suspend dividends which pressured Australia’s big 4 that have operations across the Tasman and amid concerns there could be similar restrictions domestically, with airline shares also in a tailspin after the government denied Virgin Australia’s request for a loan and indicated it would not provide the Co. with a bailout. ASX 200 (-1.98%) was was also downbeat but off lows as the JPY-risk dynamic remained the main driver for Tokyo sentiment and with automakers lacklustre following abysmal monthly sales updates. Hang Seng (+0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.69%) initially struggled for direction amid the broad cautiousness and after PBoC liquidity inaction, while tensions with the US also risk flaring up as the latter is to tighten rules to prevent China from obtaining US tech for commercial purposes that could also be applied for military use and following US intelligence reports that alleged China concealed the coronavirus outbreak and underreported the number of cases and deaths. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially continued its pullback to below 152.50 with demand sapped heading into the 10yr JGB auction, although prices the rebounded on return from the lunch break and following mixed results in the 10yr auction which was mixed but still showed a jump in the b/c and minimal tail in price.

Top Asian News

  • Thailand Imposes Curfew to Step Up Fight Against Coronavirus
  • Qatar Is Said to Hire Banks to Raise Over $5 Billion in Bonds
  • Iron Ore Now at ‘More Realistic’ Price After Fall on Virus Shock
  • Japan Not Yet Ready to Declare Virus Emergency, Abe Says

European stocks attempt to clamber from yesterday’s steep losses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%) after sentiment somewhat improved in APAC trade following a downbeat session on Wall Street. Bourses see modest broad-based gains, with Netherland’s AEX (+1.2%) leading the pack – propped up by Shell’s (+9%) Dutch listing and with ABN AMRO (+8.3%) and ING Groep (+1.8%) rebounding from the broad downside seen in banks yesterday. Meanwhile, US equity futures see more pronounced gains with the contracts higher to the tune of 2%. Sector-wise, Energy significantly outperforms – led by the price action in the oil complex as President Trump voiced optimism regarding a Saudi/Russia resolution, whilst demand from China keeps the sector underpinned. Other sectors are broadly mixed with underperformance seen in IT and Utility names – sectors do not reflect a specific risk tone. Travel & Leisure reside at the bottom of the pack as it feels no reprieve from the demand destruction caused by the virus outbreak. In terms of movers, the top of the Stoxx 600 was initially largely dominated by oil and gas names with Aker BP, Subsea losing steam as trade went underway whilst Tullow Oil (+8.0%), BP (+5.5%) and Shell remain among the top gainers. IAG (+2.5%) sees upside amid reports that the Co’s British Airways is nearing a deal to suspend 36k workers given the impact of operations from COVID-19. On the flip side; Carnival (-8.6%) sees pressure after S&P cut its rating to “BBB-“ from “BBB; the lowest investment grade level. Centrica (-7.4%) is weighed on by dividend and guidance suspensions coupled with the interruption of its Spirit Energy divestment. Elsewhere, Handelsblatt reported that the heads of Daimler (+1.0%), BMW (+3%) and Volkswagen (+1.0%) had a conversation with German Chancellor Merkel in which they wanted to explore how the corporations can rekindle production. The auto makers also raised worries regarding supply chains and expressed great concern regarding Southern Europe. On that note, Fiat Chrysler (-1.0%) slid at the open after Italy reported car registrations slumping 85.4% YY in March amid the lockdown measures in the country.

Top European News

  • Citigroup Hires Ex-Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen as Adviser
  • One of the World’s Best Welfare States is Starting to Crack
  • EasyJet Founder Escalates Feud With Board Over Massive Jet Order
  • Hungary Central Bank Pays Dividend to Boost State Virus Warchest

In FX, The Norwegian Krona and its Scandinavian partner are forging more gains on a combination of constructive technical factors, Euro underperformance and a recovery in oil prices prompted by China replenishing crude reserves at cheaper levels and US President Trump expressing confidence about resolving the spat between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Eur/Nok has been down below 11.2000 and Eur/Sek sub-10.9350, with the former also gleaning encouragement from ramped up Norges Bank selling of foreign currencies in April. Meanwhile, the Loonie is also benefiting from the firmer bounce in oil alongside the Rouble and Mexican Peso, as Usd/Cad tests support around 1.4100, Usd/RUB straddles 78.0000 and Usd/MXN pivots 24.0000. Elsewhere, the Kiwi and Aussie are consolidating off recent lows amidst less volatile trading conditions than seen of late, with Nzd/Usd holding firmly above 0.5900 and Aud/Usd not far from 0.6100 against the backdrop of relatively stable risk sentiment and Moody’s reaffirming NZ’s top notch triple A rating.

  • EUR/CHF/JPY – As noted above, the single currency remains under pressure across board as COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to rise in the Euro area, while chart impulses turn more bearish after shallower rebounds in Eur/Usd and even Eur/GBP despite the UK also suffering mounting nCoV infections and fatalities. Indeed, the headline pair has not been able to revisit 1.1000 and looks more prone to relinquishing 1.0900, while the cross is capped beneath 0.8800 after waning well short of 0.8900. Moreover, further or ongoing erosion in Eur/Chf towards 1.0550 is helping to keep the Franc on a fairly even keel vs the Dollar within confined 0.9687-51 parameters, and the Yen is almost as restrained between 107.56-06 eyeing big option expiries in close proximity, but also extending from 106.50 to 108.00-05 – full details on our Headline Feed as 7.29BST.
  • USD – Cautious trade ahead of the 2nd instalment of post-coronavirus global outbreak US initial claims that are widely expected to top last week’s circa 3.3 mn biggest ever total, with GS among those lifting already sky-high projections to 6 mn. The DXY is straddling 99.500 in the run up.

In commodities, US President Trump said he thinks Saudi and Russia will make a deal regarding oil production and suggested that he may know how to solve it. There were also comments from the US Energy Department which urged Saudi Arabia, Russia and others to work together to calm oil markets, while it noted it is frustrating that Saudi and Russia are boosting production and do not advance shared interests in stable markets. Senior Gulf source said Saudi Arabia supports cooperation among oil producers to stabilize oil markets and that oil market turmoil was caused by Russia opposition to OPEC+ cuts at the meeting in early March.

US Event Calendar

7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -26.3%

8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 3.7m, prior 3.28m; Continuing Claims, est. 4.94m, prior 1.8m

  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $40.0b deficit, prior $45.3b deficit
  • 10am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.8%, prior -0.7%; Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.8%, prior -0.8%
  • 10am: Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior -0.1%;
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.2%, prior 1.2%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. -0.6%, prior -0.6%
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 0.2%, prior -0.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With governments indicating that we’re going to be in a prolonged period of lockdowns that are pushing towards the dates we outlined in our “The exit strategy” note, it wasn’t exactly the strongest start to Q2 yesterday for global equity markets. They continued to decline as investors grappled with the implications of the coronavirus moving forward. Last week was the peak week of the great stimulus reveal but this week is seeing the reality of the situation re-emerge.

The S&P 500, which had already fallen by 20% in Q1 in its worst quarterly performance since 2008 (see our March/Q1 performance review here), fell a further -4.11%. The pullback was the biggest one day drop in 2 weeks, with the index falling 3 of the past 4 days now. Every sector and industry group was lower, though defensives like consumer staples continue to outperform their more cyclical counterparts. In Europe the STOXX 600 fell -2.93%. Banks underperformed with the STOXX Banks index down -4.34% as it fell for a 4th successive session. UK banks saw some of the biggest falls, including Lloyds (-11.66%) and Barclays (-10.34%) after they announced that they would not be paying outstanding 2019 dividends, nor would there be dividend payments or share buybacks this year after guidance from their regulators. While this is an understandable move, there is a slight financial stability risk as banks need investors and if investors believe they are going to be penalised then they are less likely to commit capital. A difficult balance to strike. On this topic, overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has also asked lenders that come under its jurisdiction to stop dividend payments for an indefinite period and focus on building capital. They will also not be allowed to redeem any non-Tier 1 capital notes.

Talking of the U.K., this is one country where covid-19 fatalities are still rising. They are up +31.5% over the last 24 hours, the second largest one-day increase over the last week. Cases also increased by +17%, as Prime Minister Johnson continues to call for additional testing. Elsewhere Italy and Spain continue to see slowing trends, with day-over-day changes in fatalities dropping again. Meanwhile cases in the US continue to grow. See our Corona Crisis Daily note for the full tables, graphs, and commentary. Note that as of today we have broken New York State out in our daily tables, with the 4th largest state in the US now having more cases than those reported in China as a whole. Overall US reported cases are now in excess of 200,000 and even VP Pence yesterday suggested that the country was on a similar trajectory as Italy. President Trump also said he was considering restricting flights between heavily affected ‘hot spots’, but that it may affect industry more. Dr. Fauci says that 18 month remains the timetable for a vaccine, and that we remain on target for it.

Staying with virus-related news, overnight, an article in China’s SMCP has suggested that a county in Henan have been asked to stay at home following news that there were three infection cases due to a doctor returning from Wuhan having the virus and already spreading to his colleagues. It’s unclear if this is a one-off, but if this is a re-surge of cases particularly as mobility picks up, then clearly there is the risk of lockdowns again.

A quick check on markets this morning and most bourses in Asia have pared heavier declines from the open. The Shanghai Comp (+0.33%) and Kospi (+0.52%) are now up while the Hang Seng (-0.09%) and Nikkei (-0.33%) are posting modest losses. The Australia’s ASX is down -2.03% with banks that have subsidiaries in New Zealand under pressure following the RBNZ news mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 are up +1.47% with the US dollar index and yields on 10y USTs being largely unchanged. Elsewhere, Brent crude oil is up +5.78% this morning with President Trump set to meet executives from the US oil companies tomorrow as the White House seeks ways to help the industry reeling from price drop.

Over in fixed income yesterday US Treasuries rallied further, with 10yr yields down by -8.6bps to 0.583%, their second lowest level ever and closing in on their all-time closing low earlier this month of 0.541%. They rallied 5bps of that after the US equity market had closed on news that the Fed is easing strains in the Treasury market by excluding Treasuries and deposits at the Fed from its supplementary leverage ratio rule. They hope this will also make it easier for banks to extend credit. This will last a year.

The yield curve also flattened, with the 2s10s curve down by -5.0bps to 37.0bps, its flattest level in nearly 3 weeks after peaking at 68.3bps back then. In Europe peripheral spreads were set for their 4th successive widening but a story hit the tape just as the market was closing that left them more mixed, with Italy slightly tighter and Spain still a touch wider. The story suggested that the Dutch were floating the idea of a €20bn fund as an EU virus response. As a sum it hardly touches the sides of what DB thinks will be a 20pp increase in Debt/GDP in Italy and Spain in 2020, but if it shows the direction of travel after the lack of progress at last week’s EU leader’s summit then this is a small step that the market will like.

One of the main events to look out for today will be the latest weekly initial jobless claims in the US, which is one of the most important real-time indicators for markets right now as to what’s going on in the economy. Following last week’s record 3.283m claims, our US economists are forecasting 3.3m for the week ending 28 March, which as was pointed out last week far exceeds anything seen during the financial crisis, when the peak week in March 2009 was at 665k. Today’s release is actually more important than tomorrow’s jobs report for March, as the end of the survey period for that came before the spike in jobless claims we saw last week, so it won’t be as up-to-date on the current economic situation as jobless claims are.

In terms of data out yesterday, the manufacturing PMIs confirmed much of what we already knew from the flash releases last week, in that just about every country in the world has moved into contractionary territory. Looking at the major countries, the Euro Area PMI came in at 44.5 (vs. flash 44.8), while the German reading was also revised down slightly from the flash to 45.4 (vs. flash 45.7), as was the US which fell to 48.5 (vs. flash 49.2).

Over in the US, the ISM manufacturing was actually not as bad as expected, at 49.1, (vs. 44.5 expected). However, this was thanks to a jump in supplier delivery times, with the index rising to 65.0. Normally, slower deliveries mean that the economy is strengthening thanks to rising demand, but in this instance it is supply issues that are causing the problem, so it’s not much consolation. Furthermore, the new orders index fell to 42.2, the lowest since March 2009, while the employment index fell to 43.8, the lowest since May 2009.

To wrap up yesterday’s data, the ADP report of private payrolls saw a -27k decline in March (vs. -150k expected), and its second worst month going back to February 2010. However, as the ADP themselves acknowledged, the report doesn’t cover the full impact of the coronavirus as the report uses data through March 12th. We also got German retail sales for February, which rose by +1.2% mom (vs. +0.1% expected).

To the day ahead now, and there are a number of data highlights from the US, including the previously mentioned weekly initial jobless claims, factory orders and the trade balance for February, as well as the final reading for durable goods orders for February. Elsewhere, we’ll get the Euro Area PPI reading for February, the UK Nationwide house price index for March, along with Canada’s international merchandise trade for February.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP  46.12 POINTS OR 1.69%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 194.27 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 246.69 POINTS OR 1.37%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.93%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0961 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0961 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 67.1102 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

Our Chinese whistleblower Doctor suddenly reappears somewhere and sends a cryptic message on social media

(zerohedge)

‘Disappeared’ Wuhan Whistleblower Doc Suddenly Sends Cryptic Message

Chinese whistleblowing Wuhan doctor Ai Fen, who claimed Beijing prevented her from warning the world about COVID-19, has mysteriously disappeared, according to an investigation by 60 Minutes, Australia.

Besides Chinese doctor Li Wenliang, Fen was one of the first to notice a steady stream of patients with pneumonia-like symptoms in Wuhan before Beijing declared the COVID-19 outbreak. Fen is the Director of the emergency department at Wuhan Central Hospital, told a Chinese media outlet in February that the government silenced her for bringing awareness to the localized virus outbreak that would eventually spread across the world.

 

Doctor Ai Fen

Wuhan hospital officials punished Fen after she posted test results of a patient that was suffering from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-like coronavirus on WeChat before COVID-19 was declared. That image went viral in China.

“Just two weeks ago the head of Emergency at Wuhan Central Hospital went public, saying authorities had stopped her and her colleagues from warning the world,” 60 Minutes Australia reported on Sunday.

60 Minutes Australia

@60Mins

Just two weeks ago the head of Emergency at Wuhan Central hospital went public, saying authorities had stopped her and her colleagues from warning the world. She has now disappeared, her whereabouts unknown.

Embedded video

After the 60 Minutes episode aired, Radio Free Asia (RFA) said a cryptic message was published on Fen’s Weibo account. It consisted of a picture overlooking Wuhan, with text that read:

“A river, A bridge. A clock chime.”

 

Fen’s Weibo post 

RFA notes that it was Fen’s “first since March 16, when the account posted to thank everyone for their concern about Ai and to reassure them that she was back at work as usual.”

Concerns over Fen’s whereabouts were sparked after she wrote a now-deleted essay in February tilted “The one who supplied the whistle” in China’s People (Renwu) magazine, describing how the government silenced her after she raised awareness of the “SARS coronavirus” before Beijing declared an outbreak.

 

The one who supplied the whistle” in China’s People (Renwu) magazine front page

RFA could not “verify Ai’s whereabouts independently.” There are concerns that the doctor has been detained by the government for speaking out about the virus:

“Detainees in police or other official custody have been known to have their social media accounts updated, either by themselves acting under orders from the authorities, or after police gain access to their devices.”

And it hasn’t been just Beijing trying to keep virus developments under wraps, Fox News’ Tucker Carlson blamed the World Health Organization on Tuesday night for aiding China in the cover-up.

END
CHINA/WHO INVESTIGATION/USA
Calls mount for an investigation to the WHO for participating in China’s coronavirus coverup
(zerohedge)

Calls Mount For Investigation Into WHO For Participating In China’s Coronavirus Coverup

Calls are mounting for a Congressional investigation into the World Health Organization’s alleged role in helping China conceal the severity of the coronavirus outbreak.

On Tuesday, Florida Senator Rick Scott (R) issued a statement conveying demanding accountability over the WHO’s handling of the crisis, according to American Military News.

“The mission of the WHO is to get public health information to the world so every country can make the best decisions to keep their citizens safe. When it comes to Coronavirus, the WHO failed. They need to be held accountable for their role in promoting misinformation and helping Communist China cover up a global pandemic,” said Scott. “We know Communist China is lying about how many cases and deaths they have, what they knew and when they knew it – and the WHO never bothered to investigate further. Their inaction cost lives.

Scott called on Congress to open an investigation of the WHO, once it comes back in session, “To review whether American taxpayers should continue to spend millions of dollars every year to fund an organization that willfully parroted propaganda from the Chinese Communist Party.” –American Military News

Also calling for WHO to be held accountable is Gen. Rob Spalding (Ret.), who wrote in the same publication that “The first global war of the 21st century began in December without a shot fired. A Wuhan doctor in China noticed some patients admitted to the hospital were exhibiting viral pneumonia consistent with SARS. Only it wasn’t SARS. When he tried to sound the alarm, he triggered the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) authoritarian control on information. Discussion of the illness was prohibited, and the doctor – who tried to warn colleagues through social media – was detained. The results of patient samples that had been sequenced to reveal their genomes were quickly squashed, and the samples destroyed before the results could be made public.”

More from Spalding via American Military News:

The WHO was notified early on, but they were prevented by the CCP to travel to Wuhan. Meanwhile, the CCP denied there was any danger to the public while 175,000 people traveled from Wuhan to all over China and the world. The virus was now set free to follow the new way of war detailed in the pages of Unrestricted Warfare. This book was written by two Peoples Liberation Army Colonels as a strategy to defeat a militarily superior United States.

The new way of war – trade, economic, propaganda and media – has now been unleashed to aid the Chinese Communist Party. To better understand this, forget everything known about how the world works. Instead, think of globalization and the internet turned into a weapon, in a no-holds-barred assault of competitive aggression unassociated with military might – and this is how China is waging war.

Following the Unrestricted Warfare thought, in CCP hands, globalization becomes weaponized. The CCP has spent decades utilizing globalization to slowly take control of the world’s trading system, dominate key industries and markets, build a global media and internet presence, and deploy subjects and diplomats around the world. Therefore, when the time comes these elements can easily be brought together for three intentional actions – deflect blame, cause panic, take advantage.

Deflect blame. Because the CCP controls Chinese language media everywhere with an iron grip, they can rile an army of ‘victims’ to deflect their own culpability for the pandemic. Chinese language social media uses the often-utilized practice of crying racism and stoking nationalism to instill fear and revenge in those inside and outside the country. These activated citizens can then be spontaneous in their response by creating “hug me I’m not a virus” campaigns. Meanwhile, the citizens under lock-down are blocked from sharing their boots-on-the-ground point of view as social media is further restricted and censored. Abroad, a full media and diplomatic blitzkrieg can be levied to ensure the virus is not named according to its origin, which gives way to another campaign to establish that it came from another country. Finally, flush with horded supplies the CCP can feign being good Samaritans as they earn profits on price gouging the world on personal protective equipment (PPE). Ultimately, deflecting blame props up the CCP message about the superiority of their Communist system.

Read the rest of the report here.

END
CHINA/USA
They can argue all they want, but China must give details on Patient 0 and Patient 1 in order to

China Rejects US Intelligence Report Claiming Beijing Lied About Coronavirus Numbers

Many were perplexed earlier this week by a headline proclaiming that Beijing would disclose a number of “asymptomatic” COVID-19 patients who hadn’t been previously included in the country’s numbers. As it dawned on them that the CPC was finally conceding, in its own roundabout way, that it had doctored the numbers during the height of the outbreak, rumors started to swirl, and reporters started picking up phones and calling their sources in the intelligence community.

That apparently culminated in the leaking of a classified intelligence report that detailed US intelligence’s findings about Beijing’s efforts to conceal the extent of the outbreak. The fact that China lied about the numbers probably surprised absolutely no one. But everybody knows how Beijing hates it when the international community says the quiet part out loud. Especially at a time when Beijing appears to be slowly reinstating lockdown conditions amid a resurgence in cases that officials have blamed on foreigners.

Hua Chunying

President Trump was unsurprisingly questioned about the report during last night’s press briefing. When asked, Trump denied that he had received an intelligence report like the one described by Bloomberg, but he added that China’s data do ‘appear low’.

“Their numbers seem to be a little bit on the light side, and I’m being nice when I say that,” Trump said.

And as we reported at the time, Vice President Mike Pence told CNN on Wednesday that “the reality is that we could have been better off if China had been more forthcoming.”

That was probably the final straw for Beijing. Because on Thursday morning, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying – a name that’s probably familiar to readers from the time China accused the US of ‘inciting panic’ during the early days of the outbreak (remember, the one Democrats wanted to reverse) – defended China’s handling of the outbreak as “open and transparent.”

“Some U.S. officials just want to shift the blame,” Hua told a regular briefing in Beijing. “Actually we don’t want to fall into an argument with them, but faced with such repeated moral slander by them, I feel compelled to take some time and clarify the truth again.”

Hua hit back by asking what the US has been doing for the last two months while the virus quietly spread across the country.

Hua questioned the speed of the U.S.’s response to the virus after banning arrivals from China on Feb. 2. “Can anyone tell us what the U.S. has done in the following two months?” she said.

According to the US intel report, China intentionally lowered case totals and death tolls, and withheld information to its global partners during the early days of the outbreak. Though Beijing eventually resorted to strict lockdowns that would never fly in the West, crushing the outbreak by sheer intensity, its repeated “adjustments” to its counting “methodology” sowed widespread doubt about China’s numbers. Officially, the country has reported roughly 82k cases and 3,300 deaths.

But experts suspect that the real totals for both could be far higher, tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of mild cases were likely left out, while the surge in the number of bodies quietly cremated showed up in some surprising places.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

SPAIN/ITALY VS USA DEATH RATES/CORONAVIRUS

Why does Italy and Spain have more than 5 times as many Coronavirus deaths per 100,000 than the USA.

A very important read..

(Mises)

Spain Reports More Than Five Times As Many COVID-19 Deaths-Per-Capita As US

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

It’s been a couple of days since my post on deaths per 100,000 in the USA and several other countries.

I’m very much a cautious “measure twice, cut once” type of person, so I went back and updated some of my calculations using more recent numbers.

Specifically, I’ve updated the third graph in the original post which is the number of deaths per 100,000 at the same point in the timeline since at least 1 case per million population was reported.

In the US, the first day to show more than one case per million population was March 7. So, counting up twenty days we arrive at March 26. On that day, there were 1,295 total deaths in the US. That works out to 0.391 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000. Meanwhile, in Italy, the first day with at least one case per million was Feb 22. Twenty days later, there were 1,106 deaths. That works out to 1.572 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000.

And so on:

And here’s how things looked five days earlier, on day 15:

The gap between the US and Spain and the US and Italy became larger over these five days. At day 15, Italy’s total for deaths per 100,000 was 3.9 times larger than the US rate. At Day 20, Italy’s rate was up slightly at 4 times larger. At Day 15, Spain’s death rate was 4.6 times larger than that in the US. At day 20, Spain’s rate had grown to 5.6 times larger than the US rate.

As I noted earlier, there are many reasons why the deaths per 100,000 could be higher in Spain and Italy than in the US, Germany, and Switzerland.

One may be the quality of healthcare.

While the US, Germany, and Switzerland all have health systems with sizable government sectors, they have multi-payer systems that are more competitive and modern than the systems found in Spain and Italy (and the UK, for that matter).

Switzerland has a system similar to Obamacare.

Another major factor is demographics. Both Spain and Italy have some of the lowest birth rates in the world, and these relatively elderly populations are lopsidedly affected by COVID-19. These demographic trends can be seen a bit in their population growth:

Note how few people Spain and Italy add each day on average. Spain barely adds anyone at all each day. And Italy is declining in population. (These are historical averages, so this doesn’t include deaths from COVID-19.)

Italy is simply a country with a very old population and very low birth rate. In fact, Italy’s population is projected to fall more than 10 percent over the next thirty years. The US’s population growth, while not high by global standards, is certainly more robust than we’re seeing in Spain and Italy. This is true both in total numbers and proportional to the population overall. With the exception of Iran and Switzerland, the US is growing faster percentage-wise than all these countries.

These trends aren’t carved in stone. It’s entirely possible that something will happen in which the US’s death rate accelerates so fast that it overtakes Spain and Italy in this regard. At this time, however, that is not the trend.

(Net population change data, COVID-19 deaths, and total population data are from Worldometer.)

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//RIOTING

Israel up to 6,000 cases and 25 deaths

(zerohedge)

Watch: Riots Erupt In Israel As Police Enforce COVID-19 Quarantine, Synagogues Shuttered

Israeli media is reporting that riots have broken out in Arab as well as some Jewish neighborhoods of Israel over quarantine enforcement. Particularly violent clashes in Jaffa also erupted after police confronted and tried to detain a man for reportedly breaking quarantine.

“Dozens of people are demonstrating and rioting in Jaffa after police questioning of a man who apparently broke his mandatory self-quarantine led numerous residents to gather and confront the officers,” the Times of Israel reports. “Protesters are clashing with police, burning tires and blocking roads.”

dudi d💟lev@dudid2428

לא רמאללה,יפו!!

Embedded video

At least four have been arrested so far, while confrontations with Israeli police have been filmed in other parts of Israel as well, over a week after Tel Aviv imposed some of the strictest quarantine measures the world has yet seen, which authorizes police to physically enforce court-ordered isolation of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases.

“Not Ramallah, Jaffa!! (in Hebrew Yafo)— the above video of the rare Wednesday clashes is captioned.

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian@manniefabian

Large Police forces have arrived to disperse the riots in Yafo which started after the arrest of a man who refused to identify in routine Health Ministry checks.

Embedded video

Typically such scenes have more commonly played out in occupied Arab West Bank neighborhoods, but increasingly it’s also Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community which has tended to defy and flaunt national quarantine and self-isolation policies.

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian@manniefabian

Police arrested 4 during the riots in Yafo which started when Police questioned a man for being outside for a non critical reason and he refused to identify.

Embedded video

Police have in some cases moved to seal synagogues which ignored orders and stayed open, issuing fines to worshipers.

 

Embedded video

The Jerusalem Post reports the outbreak is set to get worse:

Israel’s total number of cases is “going up in a steady way, and that is not so good,” Tal Brosh, head of infectious disease at Assuta Ashdod Medical Center, told The Jerusalem Post. “But that is also because the number of tests being done is increasing.”

“My concern now is the haredim” who are not practicing social distancing, which could lead to a spike in cases “very quickly,” he said. “If Bnei Brak residents do not stop gathering at weddings, prayers, mikvaot… we could see a surge within a few weeks.”

Conservative neighborhoods have come to view police quarantine enforcement as a severe violation of religious freedom.

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian@manniefabian

Riots in Yafo after policeman arrested a number of people for violating Health Ministry restrictions.

Embedded video

There are increasing instances of rabbis and synagogues defying orders to conduct services across the country such as the following, according to The Jerusalem Post:

Israel Police arrested six suspects belonging to the Peleg HaYerushalmi after they were found gathering in a synagogue in the Haredi city of Modi’in Illit, violating Health Ministry instructions issued to fight the coronavirus outbreak.

The suspects refused to listen to police instructions to leave and refused to identify themselves and began clashing with police.

Joyce Karam

@Joyce_Karam

This is not going well… Protests & burning of tires in Jaffa/Yafa after a resident was fined a Quarantine violation.

Fine by Israeli authorities can go up to $1,380:

Embedded video

The below video is from the Orthodox stronghold of Beit Shemesh, located 19 milies west of Jerusalem, during clashes with police:

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian@manniefabian

Disgusting behavior: Ultra-Orthodox in Jerusalem coughing on Policemen and calling them Nazis.

Embedded video

A number of local outbreaks in Israeli cities have been traced to crowded and in some cases still-operating synagogues.

 

Coronavirus test site for the residents of Bnei Brak, via Jerusalem Post.

Towns close to more ultra-conservative neighborhoods have increasingly petitioned state authorities to crack down:

Ramat Gan Mayor Carmel Shama-Hacohen has written a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other government officials demanding a general closure on the neighboring city of Bnei Brak, which has become one of the main coronavirus hotspots in the country.

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian@manniefabian

Police arrested a number of people in Yafa an-Naseriyye
after they attacked Policemen when they were asked to disperse a gathering which violated the Health Ministry restrictions.

Embedded video

Nationwide Israel is fast approaching 6,000 cases, among these 25 deaths, with numbers expected to climb much higher in the days ahead due to expanded testing.

END

6.Global Issues

what is causing Italy’s huge mortality rate?  It may even be higher than what officials are letting on?

Italy has an aging population and they are living in close quarters

(zerohedge)

Is Italy’s COVID-19 Mortality Rate Even Worse Than Officials Are Letting On?

As US intelligence agencies dispute China’s surprisingly low mortality stats, and as researchers ponder what’s causing Italy’s outrageous 10%+ mortality rate, one thing is indisputable: mortality rates are climbing even as the number of cases being reported in places like Italy are tapering off. And that is freaking out scientists, who are scrambling to find a cure.

As analysts at Commodore Research pointed out, the issue is not unique to Italy: Virtually every nation that has a large number of reported cases has continued to see mortality rates climb.  In Spain, the mortality rate now stands at 8.7%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 5.4%.  In the Netherlands, the mortality rate stands at 8.3%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 3.8%.  In the United Kingdom, the mortality rate stands at 7.1%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 4.6%.  In France, the mortality rate stands at 6.7%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 3.9%.  In Belgium, the mortality rate stands at 5.5%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 2.4%.

Even nations where the mortality rate has been relatively low have seen the rate climb: In Portugal, the mortality rate now stands at 2.2%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 0.9%.  In the US, the mortality rate stands at 2%, 10 days ago, it stood at 1.2%.  In South Korea, the mortality rate stands at 1.7%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 1.2%.  In Austria, the mortality stands at 1.3%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 0.4%.  In Germany, the mortality rate stands at 1%.  Ten days ago, it stood at 0.4%.

Italy’s more detailed breakdown of virus-related data and other mortality statistics have showed that virus-related deaths in Milan and the surrounding area, which has a population of 10 million, has caused the mortality rate to double from normal times.

According to AFP, the region registered 12,399 COVID-19 related deaths last month, thousands more than officially reported by any other country. Meanwhile, last Friday, the civil protection service disclosed a record 969 deaths.

Some have speculated that the death toll in Italy simply doesn’t add up, suggesting that Italy’s 10% reported death toll might be too low.

It might sound hard to believe, but AFP reports that by comparing data from 2018, its journalists determined that the average monthly deaths from 2018 in the same region was 8,300, and that March 2018 was likely a “statistically average” month. However, the city reported 7,176 coronavirus deaths in March, which is 15% below the average in normal times. Some say that this suggests local officials are deliberately misreporting the numbers.

Even some public officials are suspicious. Bergamo Mayor Giorgio Gori said Wednesday he does not trust the official figures and thinks the real toll for the region may be twice as high. The mayor tweeted a newspaper analysis suggesting that the COVID-19 toll in the Bergamo province was “between 4,500 and 5,000, and not the 2,060” officially reported.

One expert in Italy said that the data suggest Italy’s crisis has peaked, but that the peak in hospital deaths will arrive shortly, per the Hill.

“The data suggest that the increase in numbers of patients in intensive care in both the Lombardy region and Italy as a whole are likely to have peaked,” the report said.

But “”he numbers of deaths in hospital will continue to increase at the maximum rate for several days to come.”

To be sure, one new report published in the Lancet suggested that mortality rates might be smaller than initially suspected.

The study, published Monday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases medical journal, estimated that about 0.66% of patients who become infected with the virus will die. Previously, when undetected infections weren’t being taken into account, researchers found the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%. That’s still significantly deadlier than the seasonal flu.

end

Global cases now edge toward one million as deaths surge in USA and Europe

(zerohedge)

Global Coronavirus Cases Edge Toward 1 Million As Deaths Surge In US & Europe: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Spain deaths pass 10k
  • Global cases near 1 million mark
  • Infection in New Delhi slum sparks fears of mass breakout
  • PM Abe mocked for handing out ‘two masks’ to every Japanese household
  • British health official says “everybody is frustrated” about test shortage
  • London’s Francis Crick institute develops rapid test
  • Pence says US facing similar trajectory to Italy
  • Tokyo reports record 97 cases in a day
  • UN projects global economy will contract 1% in 2020
  • Philippines’ ambassador to Lebanon dies of COVID-19

*    *    *

Before we get started today, let’s take a minute to review…

  • 3/10 1,000
  • 3/11 1,267
  • 3/12 1,645
  • 3/13 2,204
  • 3/14 2,826
  • 3/15 3,505
  • 3/16 4,466
  • 3/17 6,135
  • 3/18 8,760
  • 3/19 13,229
  • 3/20 18,763
  • 3/21 25,740
  • 3/22 34,276
  • 3/23 42,663
  • 3/24 52,976
  • 3/25 65,273
  • 3/26 82,135
  • 3/27 101,295
  • 3/28 121,176
  • 3/29 139,773
  • 3/30 160,377
  • 3/31 185,469
  • 4/01 199,729

…and on Thursday? 4/02 216,722

That looks like exponential growth to us.

Now that the administration is “all in” on social distancing as America battles what is now the biggest novel coronavirus outbreak in the world, President Donald Trump warned that Americans are heading for a “horrendous” two or three weeks as they hunker down at home, reiterating his warning about “painful” times ahead, while raising the possibility that the government might shutter all remaining domestic flights between coronavirus ‘hot spots’ in the US like NYC and Miami.

Looking ahead, economists are bracing for Thursday’s initial jobless claims to jump as much as 5 million – maybe even 6.5 million – after yesterday’s ADP report on private employment, and after last week’s record 3.3 million jump.

“I am looking where flights are going into hot spots.” Trump replied when asked if he was considering a temporary ban on all domestic flights. “Some of those flights I didn’t like from the beginning, but closing up every single flight on every single airline, that’s a very, very, very rough decision. But we are thinking about hot spots, where you go from spot to spot, both hot. And we’ll let you know fairly soon.”

We’re certainly looking at it but once you do that you really are clamping down on an industry that is desperately needed,” Trump said.

On Thursday morning, the number of confirmed deaths in the US climbed above 5,000 (it was 5,137 when we last checked), while the number of confirmed cases has climbed above 200k (to 216,722). This, after Vice President Pence said during last night’s press conference that models suggest the US is facing a trajectory similar to Italy’s, the country with the highest number of coronavirus deaths with more than 13k.

NYC remains the epicenter in the US, with more than 1,374 deaths, more than double the death toll from the rest of the state (585). The global case count is quickly heading toward the big 1 million (last count: 939,436) as case numbers in the US and Europe surge (even as Italy and Spain show the first signs of a ‘plateau’ of new cases) while China, South Korea and other Southeast Asian nations and territories (Thailand, Malaysia, Hong Kong) report a second wave. Around the world, 76,836 cases were reported yesterday.

More than 10,000 people have now died in Spain after contracting coronavirus, with a record 950 of them dying on Wednesday, the latest in a grim streak of daily death-toll records. Death toll records released Thursday morning in Spain showed the official death toll hitting 10,003, up from 9,053 the day before.

Spain now has 110,238 confirmed cases of coronavirus, an 8% increase. Though that’s slowed from the ~25% daily jumps seen earlier this month, it doesn’t change the fact that Spain is 2.5 weeks into a shelter in place-style lockdown. Thanks to the lockdown, Spain recorded its biggest jump in unemployment in its history, with more than 800,000 people filing for benefits last week. The jump in deaths recently has pushed Spain’s mortality rate well above that of the US.

As it turns out, the US isn’t the only developed western country that is ill-prepared to ramp up testing for the novel coronavirus: As angry tabloid headlines bash the British government, led by a currently sickened PM Boris Johnson, a top British health official expressed frustration with the government’s struggles to provide enough tests, claiming that “everybody involved is frustrated” as the UK scrambles to ramp up testing, the FT reports.

Fortunately, London’s Francis Crick Institute has developed a rapid diagnostic coronavirus test and says it hopes to test 500 frontline workers a day from next week.

Though the US government is preparing to bail out American airlines, international airlines remain locked in a free fall: On Thursday, British Airways is expected to announce plans to suspend about 32,000 employees as it seeks to cut costs now that nobody is flying unless they absolutely need to.

As businesses continue to struggle with planning for the future, a new report from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said the global economy could shrink by almost 1% before year’s end. Before the outbreak, they had anticipated growth of 2.5%, the Washington Post reports.

Now that the 2020 Tokyo Games have been officially postponed until next year (they’re still the 2020 Games though), Japan can focus on fighting the virus without that albatross around its neck: But as the country stands “on the very brink” of a coronavirus crisis, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has resisted calls to try and enforce a state of emergency and other measures. Instead, he’s planning to send every household two small washable cloth masks, a decision that has earned him no shortage of ridicule.

Abe’s “two masks” plan was brutally mocked on social media, with many questioning how the masks would be split between a whole family.

北村ヂン@punxjk

一世帯に二枚のマスク #○○風に時事ネタを振り返ろう

View image on Twitter

Tokyo alone reported 97 new cases on Thursday, a new record high, and the latest in a two-week resurgence that has turned back the clock on Japan’s fight against the virus.

As more government officials catch the virus, the Philippine ambassador to Lebanon died of complications arising from the virus this week, the country’s Department of Foreign Affairs announced on Thursday. Ambassador Bernardita M. Catalla, a nearly 30-year veteran of the diplomatic corps., died in Beirut early Thursday morning.

Finally, as Indians continue to grumble about that the inept implementation of that country’s three-week lockdown, imposed despite a relative dearth of cases as officials feared rapid spreading in the country’s slums, the death of a middle-aged man in Mumbai’s Dharavi slum has stoked worries about the highly contagious virus ripping through what’s widely regarded as the largest slum in Asia.

END
A good one…should the market be focusing on whether there is still markets out there?
(Michael Every)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0916 DOWN .0035 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.37 UP 0.078 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2436   UP   0.0056  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4151 DOWN .0002 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 35 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 10916 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 46.12 POINTS OR 1.69% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 194.27 POINTS OR 0.84%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,93%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 194.27 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.12 POINTS OR 1.69%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 1.93% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 246.69  POINTS OR 1.37%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1593.80

silver:$14.13-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.60% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.24 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.60 DOWN 7 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.86% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.72%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,48 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 76 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.42% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.92% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0859  DOWN     .0092 or 92 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.87 UP .587 OR YEN DOWN 59  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2382 UP .0002 POUND DOWN 2  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 39 basis points to 1.4112

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0842    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0912  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  6.6313 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 0.60 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.25 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.06 UP 39  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 25.65  0.47%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 26.07 POINTS OR .27%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 13.72 POINTS 0.33%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 5.30 POINTS or 0.08%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 289.06 POINTS OR 1.75%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 25.33 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 30.46 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:   787.47  THE CROSS LOWER BY 1.23 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 123 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.44 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  25.07//

 

 

BRENT :  29.96

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.62…plus 4 basis points…

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD:  1.26 plus 4 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0862 ( DOWN 89   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.86 UP .569 (YEN DOWN 57 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 100.10 UP 43 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2417 UP 36  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.6045

 

 

the Russian rouble 77.54   UP 1.16 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 116 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4148 UP 3 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.44%

 

The Dow closed UP 469.93 POINTS OR 2.24%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 126.73 POINTS OR  1.72%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  50.91 CLOSED DOWN 6.15

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.437%//

LIBOR -OIS: STILL VERY HIGH: 1.329

 

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Trump Sparks “Sh*tshow” In Black-Gold As Bullion Demand Soars To 3-Year Highs

Two things were “unprecedented” today… America’s labor market collapse and global oil markets’ surge in price.

Just shy of 10 million Americans have signed up for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks… quite an outlier historically…

Source: Bloomberg

For oil traders, it was the worst of times (biggest quarterly loss ever) and the best of times (today’s manic jawboning and denials prompted the single-best daily gain for crude ever)…

All thanks to President Trump’s apparent lying tweet of an imminent supply-cut deal. Saxo’s Ole Hanson summed things up nicely as Trump triggered everyone’s stops…

Ole S Hansen@Ole_S_Hansen

I’m normally a very calm person but Trump just created a sh-show in the market which many will lose from. That false rally just sucked in a lot of fresh retail money from traders desperate join the uptrend. It will come but not yet.

The 24.7% rise is the largest daily gain for WTI ever (and at one point Brent rose a stunning 47% intraday)…BUT let’s put that in context…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets were volatile intraday,  but thanks to a late-day surge (seemingly triggered by the ventilator DPA) all ended green, led by S&P and Dow…

Futures show the chaos best though as the frightening labor data sparked a market puke into the cash open, which dip-buyer manically bought…

Despite the mixed picture in indices, the Virus-Fear trade is reaccelerating…

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” Stocks fell for the 5th day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

High-yield bond algos triggered in Trump’s oil deal comments… but that faded rapidly…

Treasury yields were marginally higher today pushing 30Y back to unchanged on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields popped back above 60bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar drifted higher again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos spiked today (but fell back after that panic-buying) back into the green for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin spiked above $7200, back to 4-week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all higher on the day (despite dollar gains) with oil the outlier…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold spiked on the terrible jobless data (more helicopter money?)…

Notably, gold futures and spot have started to decouple once again (as physical shortages rear their ugly head again)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Gold coins sold by the U.S. Mint were snapped up in March at the fastest pace in over three years as investors flocked to the haven metal amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg reports, by the end of the month, investors had purchased142,000 ounces of American Eagle coins, the most since late 2016. With so much retail demand, dealers are charging premiums for bullion — and even offering to pay more than spot prices to clients willing to part with their gold bars and coins.

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

US Equity Futures Crash Into Red, Gold Spikes After Record Jobless Claims

Another hope-filled overnight session crushed on the shores of reality…

A worse than expected and simply unprecedented surge in jobless claims has sent Dow futures careening back into the red after a strong night…

And gold is spiking (perhaps on expectations that more helicopter money is coming)…

 

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

It looks like Americans might have to wait longer for their money

(zerohedge)

 

 

“This Is Turning Into A Disaster” – Some Americans Might Wait 20 Weeks Or Longer For Stimulus Checks

 

Update (1415ET): It looks like the real inside scoop as to what’s happening over at Treasury right now is coming courtesy of the CEO of Lendio, a startup focusing on lending to small businesses, who says he was on a recent conference call with the SBA and Treasury.

CEO Brock Blake said that a “power struggle” between the SBA and Treasury is holding up the extremely critical $350 billion loan program that’s supposed to save all of America’s non-chain restaurants, and other small and family-owned businesses.

Brock Blake@BrockBlake

1/ Wow. What a mess! Just got off a conf call with the SBA. The @SBAgov & @USTreasury are having a power struggle and this is turning into a disaster. Millions of small businesses will be lining up for loans tomorrow, yet those 2 organizations are fighting about process & forms.

Brock Blake@BrockBlake

2/ Treasury releases an app for the PPP loans and the ENTIRE country has been filling it out in preparation for tomorrow. Our engineers have been working for 48 hours straight to build an automated experience… and now, the SBA is saying that THAT application is not complete!

Brock Blake@BrockBlake

3/ It’s 12 hours before America’s small businesses will be applying… and they STILL haven’t released a new app for lenders.

**There’s no way this will be ready by tomorrow.**

No one actually knows what’s needed to actually document the application. There’s been no updated

Brock Blake@BrockBlake

4/ … guidance from the few documents they posted on Monday. At this point, there are WAY more questions than answers.

Lenders are begging to get answers like:
-does the bank have to be an SBA-licensed lender to participate? Or just an FDIC bank?
-how does a lender apply to

Brock Blake@BrockBlake

5/ approved as a PPP lender? On Monday, the guidance said to just send an email to apply, but SBA is saying that’s not correct. The lender needs to complete a new expedited ‘750 application.’

I asked when they would release the application (because many lenders are waiting..

Brock Blake@BrockBlake

6/ … response to the email they sent. SBA’s answer: soon! 🤨

-most lenders are worried they won’t have enough capital to fund the demand, and are asking how quickly they will be ‘reimbursed’ on the loans so they can replenish capital. No answers yet.

-while the low rate is..

Brock Blake@BrockBlake

7/ ..exactly what the SMBs need, many lenders are opting out of the program because they can’t make enough $ to even service the loans (0.5% per year is VERY skinny).

-30m small businesses will be beating down the doors for capital tomorrow … its a DISASTER waiting to happen.

Brock Blake@BrockBlake

8/ BOTTOM LINE: the SBA & the Treasury need to quit the power struggle, get aligned, provide REAL guidance (for ALL lenders, business owners, and agents) so that…

… we can get much need capital into the hands of SMBs that are suffering right now!

 

Update (1420ET): It looks like news wires like Bloomberg and Reuters have gotten a hold of that memo, or at least the details, judging by these headlines.

  • IRS COULD TAKE UP TO 20 WEEKS TO ISSUE ALL PAPER CHECKS – HOUSE MEMO
  • IRS TO BEGIN ISSUING PAPER CHECKS TO INDIVIDUALS DURING WEEK OF MAY 4 – HOUSE MEMO

*   *   *

Around the country, millions of Americans are anxiously wondering when their stimulus checks will be arriving, as they hope to God that they have a job to come back to, or that – if they’ve already been laid off – the government stimulus money manages to save their employers and help them get their jobs back.

But as President Trump has said several times during the White House’s daily press briefings, nothing like this has ever been done before. And while it sounds simple, as we explained the other day, handing out $2 trillion (or at least the amount that’s been earmarked for unemployment expansion and stimulus checks) is harder than it sounds.

And as the administration continues to string people along – Steven Mnuchin said last week that “our expectation is three weeks” for those who have depository information on file – whispers about the timeline for the payments are seeing the ‘whisper timeline’ number are seemingly growing in proportion.

And now, CNN is now reporting that instead of the three week timeline that Mnuchin gave last week, which would have resulted in checks going out the week of April 6, the first checks likely won’t go out until the week of April 13, and – what’s worse – it could as long as 20 weeks for all the stimulus checks to go out, leaving millions of poor and desperate Americans (many of whom voted for President Trump) twisting in the wind.

Americans likely won’t begin to see direct payments from the coronavirus stimulus bill until at least April 13 and it could take 20 weeks for all the checks to be mailed, Trump administration officials told lawmakers, according to a House Democratic memo obtained by CNN.

The timeline means tens of millions of Americans will have to wait to get badly needed assistance, despite repeated suggestions from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that the money would go out as soon as April 6. He said this past Sunday after passage of the $2.2 trillion stimulus bill that payments would not go out until mid-April.

CNN reported in March that former IRS officials said the wait would likely be weeks or months.

According to the memo cited by CNN, the IRS is expected to make about 60 million payments, likely starting during the week of April 13, for taxpayers who provided their direct deposit information via their 2018 or 2019 tax returns. Three weeks later, the IRS expects to start issuing paper checks to individuals whose bank information isn’t already on file, a process that will take significantly longer. House Democrats expect that up to 5 million checks can be issued per week.

For those who don’t have tax information on file, the checks will take even longer.

All of the information is based on conversations with Treasury and the IRS, the memo said.

And all of this is after a group of Democratic Senators pushed for a change in guidance that Elizabeth Warren said would get money into the hands of seniors’ faster.

Elizabeth Warren

@SenWarren

I joined @SenatorHassan, @SenSherrodBrown, and 31 other senators in urging @USTreasury Secretary Mnuchin & @SocialSecurity Commissioner Saul to reverse the IRS’s guidance and provide stimulus payments to Social Security beneficiaries even if they don’t file tax returns.

View image on Twitter

The stimulus law signed by President Trump last week stipulates that individuals who earn $75,000 or less will receive $1,200, while couples that make $150,000 or less will receive twice as much, as well as an additional $500 per child. Payments decrease for those who earn more, and individuals earning more than $99k a year will get nothing.

Additionally, CNBC’s Kate Rogers reported Thursday after on some issues between the SBA and Treasury about the small-and-medium-sized business section of that bill. “The SBA and Treasury are not on the same page,” Rogers said.

Bottom line: If the Trump Administration doesn’t figure all of this out quickly, the stimulus bill rollout could become the biggest government debacle since the rollout of healthcare.gov.

end

ii)Market data/USA

This hit Wall Street with a thunder:  6.7 million poor souls lost their jobs.  In the past two weeks:  10 million have filed for unemployment. This will kill the uSA economy permanently.

(zerohedge)

 

“US Labor Market Is In Free-Fall” – 10 Million Americans Have Filed For Unemployment In Past 2 Weeks

After last week’s unprecedented 3.3 million surge in initial jobless claims, this week’s is even more unprecedented-er, adding a stunning 6.648 million (just 100k away from our estimate of 6.5million) for a two-week sum of 10 million new Americans claiming unemployment benefits…

Source: Bloomberg

As @GreekFire noted, “We’ve lost 46 jobs for every confirmed case of COVID-19 in the US…

The 6.648mm print is worse than the worst of 50 estimating analysts’ expectations. Breaking down by state (which is one week lagged and so represents the prior week’s 3.3mm print detail), California, Pennsylvania, and New York dominate…

Source: Bloomberg

And of course, last week’s “initial” claims and this week’s “continuing” claims…

Source: Bloomberg

This is simply stunning.

“The U.S. labor market is in free-fall,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.

“The prospect of more stringent lockdown measures and the fact that many states have not yet been able to process the full amount of jobless claim applications suggest the worst is still to come.”

And another important note is that weekly jobless claims data are based on “hard facts”, UBS points out, unlike survey data
which is subject to quirks around:

a) some of the treatment of supply chains, which has flattered data,

b) the fact that many respondents will not be replying to surveys during the virus disruption period, and

c) survey data will give more accurate assessments during ‘normal’ times, perhaps not as much in unusual times.

Of course, the government is coming to the rescue. As a result of the freshly-passed ‘relief’ bill, self-employed and gig-workers who previously were unable to claim unemployment benefits are now eligible. In addition, the unemployed will get up to $600 per week for up to four months, which is equivalent to $15 per hour for a 40-hour workweek. By comparison, the government-mandated minimum wage is about $7.25 per hour and the average jobless benefits payment was roughly $385 per person per month at the start of this year.

“Why work when one is better off not working financially and health wise?” said a Sung Won Sohn, a business economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.

With more than 80% of Americans under some form of lockdown, up from less than 50% a couple of weeks ago, this is far from over.

As RealInvestmentAdvice.com’s Lance Roberts warns, the importance is that unemployment rates in the U.S. are about to spike to levels not seen since the “Great Depression.” Based on the number of claims being filed, we can estimate that unemployment will jump to 15-20% over the next quarter as economic growth slides 8%, or more. (I am probably overly optimistic.)

The erosion in employment will lead to a sharp deceleration in economic and consumer confidence, as was seen Tuesday in the release of the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which plunged from 132.6 to 120 in March.

This is a critical point. Consumer confidence is the primary factor of consumptive behaviors, which is why the Federal Reserve acted so quickly to inject liquidity into the financial markets. While the Fed’s actions may prop up financial markets in the short-term, it does little to affect the most significant factor weighing on consumers – their jobs.

The chart below is our “composite” confidence index, which combines several confidence surveys into one measure. Notice that during each of the previous two bear market cycles, confidence dropped by an average of 58 points.

With consumer confidence just starting its reversion from high levels, it suggests that as job losses rise, confidence will slide further, putting further pressure on asset prices. Another way to analyze confidence data is to look at the composite consumer expectations index minus the current situation index in the reports.

Similarly, given we have only started the reversion process, bear markets end when deviations reverse. The differential between expectations and the current situation, as you can see below, is worse than the last cycle, and only slightly higher than before the “dot.com” crash.

If you are betting on a fast economic recovery, I wouldn’t.

There is a fairly predictable cycle, starting with CEO’s moving to protect profitability, which gets worked through until exhaustion is reached.

As unemployment rises, we are going to begin to see the faults in the previous employment numbers that I have repeatedly warned about over the last 18-months. To wit:

“There is little argument the streak of employment growth is quite phenomenal and comes amid hopes the economy is beginning to shift into high gear. But while most economists focus at employment data from one month to the next for clues as to the strength of the economy, it is the ‘trend’ of the data, which is far more important to understand.”

That “trend” of employment data has been turning negative since President Trump was elected, which warned the economy was actually substantially weaker than headlines suggested. More than once, we warned that an “unexpected exogenous event” would exposure the soft-underbelly of the economy.

The virus was just such an event.

While many economists and media personalities are expecting a “V”-shaped recovery as soon as the virus passes, the employment data suggests an entirely different outcome.

The chart below shows the peak annual rate of change for employment prior to the onset of a recession. The current cycle peaked at 2.2% in 2015, and has been on a steady decline ever since. At 1.3%, which predated the virus, it was the lowest level ever preceding a recessionary event. All that was needed was an “event” to start the dominoes falling. When we see the first round of unemployment data, we are likely to test the lows seen during the financial crisis confirming a recession has started. 

No Recession In 2020?

It is worth noting that NO mainstream economists, or mainstream media, were predicting a recession in 2020. However, as we noted in 2019, the inversion of the “yield curve,” predicted exactly that outcome.

“To CNBC’s point, based on this lagging, and currently unrevised, economic data, there is ‘NO recession in sight,’ so you should be long equities, right?

Which indicator should you follow? The yield curve is an easy answer.

While everybody is ‘freaking out’ over the ‘inversion,’it is when the yield-curve ‘un-inverts’ that is the most important.

The chart below shows that when the Fed is aggressively cutting rates, the yield curve un-inverts as the short-end of the curve falls faster than the long-end. (This is because money is leaving ‘risk’ to seek the absolute ‘safety’ of money markets, i.e. ‘market crash.’)”

I have dated a few of the key points of the “inversion of the curve.” As of today, the yield-curve is now fully un-inverted, denoting a recession has started.

While recent employment reports were slightly above expectations, the annual rate of growth has been slowing. The 3-month average of the seasonally-adjusted employment report, also confirms that employment was already in a precarious position and too weak to absorb a significant shock. (The 3-month average smooths out some of the volatility.)

What we will see in the next several employment reports are vastly negative numbers as the economy unwinds.

Lastly, while the BLS continually adjusts and fiddles with the data to mathematically adjust for seasonal variations, the purpose of the entire process is to smooth volatile monthly data into a more normalized trend. The problem, of course, with manipulating data through mathematical adjustments, revisions, and tweaks, is the risk of contamination of bias.

We previously proposed a much simpler method to use for smoothing volatile monthly data using a 12-month moving average of the raw data as shown below.

Notice that near peaks of employment cycles the BLS employment data deviates from the 12-month average, or rather “overstates” the reality. However, as we will now see to be the case, the BLS data will rapidly reconnect with 12-month average as reality emerges.

Sometimes, “simpler” gives us a better understanding of the data.

Importantly, there is one aspect to all the charts above which remains constant. No matter how you choose to look at the data, peaks in employment growth occur prior to economic contractions, rather than an acceleration of growth. 

“Okay Boomer”

Just as “baby boomers” were finally getting back to the position of being able to retire following the 2008 crash, the “bear market” has once again put those dreams on hold. Of course, there were already more individuals over the age of 55, as a percentage of that age group, in the workforce than at anytime in the last 50-years. However, we are likely going to see a very sharp drop in those numbers as “forced retirement” will surge.

The group that will to be hit the hardest are those between 25-54 years of age. With more than 15-million restaurant workers being terminated, along with retail, clerical, leisure, and hospitality workers, the damage to this demographic will be the heaviest.

There is a decent correlation between surges in the unemployment rate and the decline in the labor-force participation rate of the 25-54 age group. Given the expectation of a 15%, or greater, unemployment rate, the damage to this particular age group is going to be significant.

Unfortunately, the prime working-age group of labor force participants had only just returned to pre-2008 levels, and the same levels seen previously in 1988. Unfortunately, it may be another decade before we see those employment levels again.

The employment impact is going to felt for far longer, and will be far deeper, than the majority of the mainstream media and economists expect. This is because they are still viewing this as a “singular” problem of a transitory virus.

It isn’t.

The virus was simply the catalyst which started the unwind of a decade-long period of debt accumulation and speculative excesses. Businesses, both small and large, will now go through a period of “culling the herd,” to lower operating costs and maintain profitability.

There are many businesses that will close, and never reopen. Most others will cut employment down to the bone and will be very slow to rehire as the economy begins to recover. Most importantly, wage growth was already on the decline, and will be cut deeply in the months to come.

Lower wage growth, unemployment, and a collapse in consumer confidence is going to increase the depth and duration of the recession over the months to come. The contraction in consumption will further reduce revenues and earnings for businesses which will require a deeper revaluation of asset prices. 

I just want to leave you with astatement I made previously:

“Every financial crisis, market upheaval, major correction, recession, etc. all came from one thing – an exogenous event that was not forecast or expected.

This is why bear markets are always vicious, brutal, devastating, and fast. It is the exogenous event, usually credit-related, which sucks the liquidity out of the market, causing prices to plunge. As prices fall, investors begin to panic-sell driving prices lower which forces more selling in the market until, ultimately, sellers are exhausted.

It is the same every time.”

Over the last several years, investors have insisted the markets were NOT in a bubble. We reminded them that everyone thought the same in 1999 and 2007.

Throughout history, financial bubbles have only been recognized in hindsight when their existence becomes “apparently obvious” to everyone. Of course, by that point is was far too late to be of any use to investors and the subsequent destruction of invested capital.

It turned out, “this time indeed was not different.” Only the catalyst, magnitude, and duration was.

Pay attention to employment and wages. The data suggests the current “bear market” cycle has only just begun.

*  *  *

Finally, as Southbay Research warnsby the time this mess settles, at least 20M American workers will have been furloughed.  The math is relentless.

Self-isolation is crushing the Leisure & Hospitality sector (17M workers).  Most of them are set to be out of work.  Indeed, confirming the sector’s pain, SouthBay’s review of local job postings found a massive collapse: Leisure & Hospitality postings fell 80% compared to the same period last year.  That figure will only worsen as more States and cities impose a lock down.

And that’s just one sector.  Every sector is taking a hit, some more than others, but the average drop in labor demand is >50% (as reflected in job postings).

Things will get a bit uglier before they level off.

But Goldman has something positive to look for – even as this all begins to worsen dramatically – during the recovery from the last recession, GDP stabilized when initial claims first started to come down and continuing claims hit their peak. GDP started growing again when initial claims had fallen 1/3 of the way back to the pre-crisis level and continuing claims were falling quickly, as shown in Exhibit 2.

In the months ahead, we think that a levelling off of continuing claims will be a good signal that GDP has stabilized. Continuing claims will also likely be the clearer indicator that GDP has started growing again. Initial claims might normalize somewhat gradually as second-round effects of the virus shock generate ongoing layoffs. Continuing claims will better pick up an increase in hiring, which should accelerate more quickly than in a typical recession as some economic activities shut down by virus fears rebound more immediately (though this depends on the unemployment insurance benefits available at that point and on whether the economy recovers via slow adaptation or a more abrupt medical breakthrough).

END

U.S. trade deficit narrows 12.2% in February to $39.9 billion

April 2, 2020 at 8:57 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Both U.S. imports and exports decline, a preview of likely trends for coming months

The numbers: The nation’s trade deficit narrowed a sharp 12.2% in February as the coronavirus hit China’s economy and oil prices dropped. The trade gap narrowed to $39.9 billion from an upwardly revised $45.5 billion in January, according to seasonally adjusted numbers released Thursday by the Commerce Department. The narrowing of the deficit was in line with economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

What happened: Exports slipped by 0.4% to $207.5 billion. Imports fell 2.5% to $247.5 billion.

Big picture: Trade activity was on a lower trend even before the supply-chain disruptions from the coronavirus. The collapse in oil prices also played a rule in the month, economists said. This year is shaping up to be the works for trade activity on record.

-END-

CBO who are always delivering rosy forecasts:  expects a -28% GDP and a 10% unemployment  (which is really 30%)

(zerohedge/CBO)

CBO Reveals Apocalyptic Forecast: Expects -28% GDP, 10% Unemployment Rate

One of the many side effects of the coronavirus pandemic is that it has thrown out all recent economic forecasts right out of the window, certainly those of the perpetually cheerful CBO. In a publication released on Thursday afternoon, the CBO said that it now expects the economy to contract sharply during the second quarter of 2020 as a result of the continued disruption of commerce stemming from the spread of the novel coronavirus. What it expects now is, at least in the short-run, nothing short of a depression, with Q2 GDP expected to plunge to -28% as unemployment soars to 10%

The following are CBO’s latest preliminary estimates, based on information about the economy that was available through this morning and which include the effects of an economic boost from recently enacted legislation.

  • Gross domestic product is expected to decline by more than 7 percent during the second quarter. If that happened, the decline in the annualized growth rate reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis would be about four times larger and would exceed 28 percent. Those declines could be much larger, however.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to exceed 10 percent during the second quarter, in part reflecting the 3.3 million new unemployment insurance claims reported on March 26 and the 6.6 million new claims reported this morning. (The number of new claims was about 10 times larger this morning than it had been in any single week during the recession from 2007 to 2009.)
  • Interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes are expected to be below 1% during the second quarter as a result of the Federal Reserve’s actions and market conditions. This is hardly a surprise, and the real question is when will rates turn negative.

And visually:

That’s about as far as the CBO will go. As it admits, its “economic projections, especially for later periods, are highly uncertain at this time.”

Below are some details on what specific updates are incorporated in Today’s Cost Estimate:

To estimate the costs of legislation that is especially sensitive to economic conditions, such as provisions affecting unemployment insurance benefits, CBO is taking into account as much economic information as possible. Later today, CBO will publish a preliminary estimate of the costs of H.R. 6201, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, which was enacted as Public Law 116-127 on March 18. The estimate incorporates an updated projection of the unemployment rate that was based on information that was available about the economy through March 27. It was not based on all information available as of this morning because of the time needed to process new information about economic developments and incorporate it into cost estimates. (Also, following the conventions of cost estimating, the economic projections used for the estimate do not include the effects of the act itself or the larger effects of P.L. 116-136, the subsequently enacted CARES Act.)

The unemployment rate underlying the cost estimate for H.R. 6201 was 12 percent in the second quarter of 2020. The extent of social distancing was a key factor in that projection. The analysis incorporated an expectation that the current extent of social distancing across the country would continue—on average, and with local variation—for the next three months. That expectation was broadly consistent with the projections of the virus’s spread that have been reported by the Administration’s coronavirus task force.

CBO’s projections also included the possibility of later outbreaks of the virus. To account for that possibility, social distancing was projected to diminish by only three-quarters, on average, during the second half of the year. And CBO expected the effects of job losses and business closures to be felt for some time; the unemployment rate underlying the cost estimate was 9 percent at the end of 2021.

Future Updates

CBO is currently working to develop central projections of economic variables that take information into account that has become available since March 27—information that has been more negative than anticipated. The agency is also preparing central estimates of the economic effects of recent legislation enacted to help boost the economy. All of that information will be provided with CBO’s next baseline projections of the economy and the budget; those projections will be published later this year.

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

There is no question that Hydroxychloroquin in combination with Azithromycin 250 will fight the Covid 19.  What really happens is that the drug binds with zinc, bringing it across the membrane barrier into the blood stream.  Zinc then enters the virus and zinc interferes with RNA polymerase which is the virus replicating machine..and thus the virus is killed off…

(zerohedge)

Study Finds That Trump’s ‘Miracle Drug’ Helps Fight COVID-19

The New York Times and Washington Post aren’t going to enjoy reporting this.

A relatively small study involving coronavirus patients in China has determined that the malaria drugs that President Trump has been pushing as potential coronavirus ‘miracle cures’ actually do seem to work in preventing COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, from progressing into its most lethal stage.

The news will send “a ripple of excitement” through the medical community, one doctor said.

Here’s more from the NYT:

The malaria drug hydroxychloroquine helped to speed the recovery of a small number of patients who were mildly ill from the coronavirus, doctors in China reported this week.

Cough, fever and pneumonia went away faster, and the disease seemed less likely to turn severe in people who received hydroxychloroquine than in a comparison group not given the drug. The authors of the report said that the medication was promising, but that more research was needed to clarify how it might work in treating coronavirus disease and to determine the best way to use it.

“It’s going to send a ripple of excitement out through the treating community,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University.

Though NYT, WaPo, and most of the left-wing press has sought to focus on the “unproven” nature of hydroxychloroquine and its analogue chloroquine, as well as the fact that Trump’s remarks have purportedly spurred harmful hoarding (which has deprived some regular patients of their medication) and at least one man’s decision to try a harmful COVID-19 “home remedy” with the same active ingredient in the medication (spoiler alert: that man poisoned himself, and  the mainstream press swiftly declared it to be Trump’s fault), some professionals have backed Trump.

Writing in WSJ last week, a pair of doctors reviewed the evidence at hand and recounted their clinical experience saying they had seen the drug effectively treat COVID-19.

Fortunately, as the NYT noted in this latest article, the drugs are cheap, relatively plentiful, and mostly harmless.

Now that the FDA has granted the drug emergency approval, part of a plan to allow its use in New York in particular, doctors suspect more patients will begin asking for the drug.

“I think it will reinforce the inclination of many people across the country who are not in a position to enter their patients into clinical trials but have already begun using hydroxychloroquine,” he said.

And now, doctors have every reason to give it a shot.

END

Figures:  the drug is in short supply..

(zerohedge)

COVID-19 ‘Miracle Drug’ Goes On FDA Shortage List After Study Confirms Efficacy

Days after the FDA approved the use of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, weekly prescriptions soard from 100k to 300k in one week.

Compounding the issue is a study, which shows that the commonly used treatment for lupus, arthritis and other disorders which was touted by President Trump has proven to be effective in a small study reported by The New York Times. As such, the drug has been placed on the FDA’s list of shortages – leaving those with the aforementioned afflictions at risk of not being able to refill their prescriptions, according to Bloomberg.

The news comes after Novartis AG’s Sandoz donated over 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine, while Bayer AG donated 1 million doses of chloroquine to the national stockpile.

While we are still waiting on the results from clinical studies, compelling anecdotal evidence of the drug’s efficacy when combined with azithromycin (Z-Pac) and zinc sulfate has caused several countries to place them on their recommended treatment regemin for the disease.

Some of the nine companies on the FDA’s list that make hydroxychloroquine, including generic-drug giant Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., said there is a limited supply that is subject to allocation. 4

Others said the drug is available, particularly for existing customers. Increasingly larger shipments of chloroquine are scheduled over the next eight months, according to Natco Pharma Ltd., whose chloroquine is distributed by Rising Pharmaceuticals Inc. -Bloomberg

“The agency is working with manufacturers to assess their supplies and is actively evaluating market demand for patients dependent on hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for treatment of malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis,” the FDA said in a Tuesday evening statement, adding that all manufacturers are ramping up production.

end

the fed is out to rescue Wall Street banks by excluding treasuries in the balance sheet

(zerohedge)

In A Groundbreaking Move, Fed Excludes Treasurys From Leverage Ratio Rule: Here’s What That Means

For the past few weeks, most of Wall Street’s Fed watchers and STIR experts such as Zoltan Pozsar and Marc Cabana had lamented that one trick the Fed could pull to ease the tension in the Treasury market and to potentially unlock hundreds of billions in new lending capacity among US commercial banks, was to exclude Treasuries and deposits from the Fed’s much maligned Supplementary Leverage Ratio Rule, which forces banks to hold ultra safe Treasuries and/or deposits on their books (which are traditionally viewed by the Fed as less risky than loans) or else suffer a G-SIB capital surcharge.

Specifically, the Fed’s supplementary leverage ratio applies to financial institutions with more than $250 billion in total consolidated assets, and requires them to hold a minimum ratio of 3%, measured against their total leverage exposure, with more stringent requirements for the largest and most systemic financial institutions.

As we showed in November, JPMorgan’s aggressive dumping of Treasurys is why the bank’s GSIB surcharge was the highest across all US banks despite being widely seen as the safest US commercial bank.

Well, after trying pretty much everything else, including unleashing unlimited QE, expanding swap lines, opening unlimited repos to both domestic Dealers and Foreign central banks, and restarting the entire Lehman alphabet soup toolkit, on Wednesday after the close, the Fed did just that, and announced that to ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the coronavirus and increase banking organizations’ ability to provide credit to households and businesses, the Fed announced a temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio rule, which would exclude U.S. Treasury securities and deposits at Federal Reserve Banks from the calculation of the rule for holding companies, and will be in effect until March 31, 2021.

Explaining the move, the Fed argued that as a result of the dramatic increase in deposits observed in recent weeks as investors dumped risky assets, banks may be limited in their abilities as “financial intermediaries and to provide credit to households and businesses.” The change to the supplementary leverage ratio should therefore “mitigate the effects of those restrictions and better enable firms to support the economy.”

Liquidity conditions in Treasury markets have deteriorated rapidly, and financial institutions are receiving significant inflows of customer deposits along with increased reserve levels. The regulatory restrictions that accompany this balance sheet growth may constrain the firms’ ability to continue to serve as financial intermediaries and to provide credit to households and businesses. The change to the supplementary leverage ratio will mitigate the effects of those restrictions and better enable firms to support the economy.

The Fed also said that “financial institutions have more than doubled their capital and liquidity levels over the past decade and are encouraged to use that strength to support households and businesses.”

However, to make sure that the expanded balance sheet capacity is not used by banks simply to accelerate stock buybacks, it explicitly stated that the Board is providing the temporary exclusion in the interim final rule to allow banking organizations to expand their balance sheets as appropriate to continue to serve as financial intermediaries, rather than to allow banking organizations to increase capital distributionsand will administer the interim final rule accordingly.”

Finally, as explained above, whereas the supplementary leverage ratio “generally applies to financial institutions with more than $250 billion in total consolidated assets” and requires them to hold a minimum ratio of 3 percent, measured against their total leverage exposure (with more stringent requirements for the largest and most systemic financial institutions), the SLR change would temporarily decrease tier 1 capital requirements of holding companies by approximately 2 percent in aggregate.

Translation: what the Fed is effectively granted banks some 2% in balance sheet capacity to use as they see fit, as long as it is not for buybacks, eligible capital which they can – and likely will – use to buy more Treasurys knowing they can then just flip those Treasurys back to the Fed with a profit. Sure enough, Treasury yields immediately dumped after the news…

… although they have since rebounded. Why?

Perhaps because the market took one look at the recent usage of the Fed’s repo facilities where any ongoing SLR stresses would have emerged, as Dealers would be forced to pledge more Treasurys to the Fed in exchange for reserves. Instead… crickets: not only have Dealers virtually stopped parking Treasuries at either the overnight or term repo facility…

… but today saw the second “no bid” repo operation everas not a single Treasury or MBS was pledged to the Fed in return for cash.

Why? It is not immediately clear what prompted Dealers to shun the Fed’s repo operation, although some have speculated that faced with a choice of parking safe assets at the Fed which paying a modest interest payment, or selling the paper to the Fed as part of the massive unlimited repo, virtually everyone has chosen the second option.

It could also mean that as a result of the meteoric changes observed in the banking system in recent days, the SLR ratio is no longer the bottleneck that either the Fed or strategists think it is.

Instead one possible reason for the operation is to make sure banks have the capacity to lend out the $350BN in loans to small and medium businesses under the Fed’s $2 trillion fiscal stimulus which as a reminder will start being funded as soon as this Friday, and the Fed’s SLR easing provides banks with the needed space to expand their balance sheets to accommodate all the incremental loans. Finally, for those who believe that as a result of this Fed action, the US economy will somehow soar, please remember that loans are not a function of supply but demand, and the last thing on cash-strapped Americans’ minds right now  is how to get even deeper in debt.

END

Huge increase in corporations drawing down their banking credit facilities

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Drs. Fauci and Birx instigated the ESM carnage with disturbing forecasts about Covid-19 fatalities.  However, as we illustrated in yesterday’s missive, the dire projection made publically is at odds with recent data and Fauci’s own projection in the NEJM last week.

@AlexBerenson: This is the @IMHE_UW model for Covid_19, the new US standard. It was put out SIX days ago (post lockdown). It projects New York State will have 50,000 hospitalizations TODAY. Instead NYS has 12,000. Wrong by 4x in under a week. What on earth are we doing? http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Not a conspiracy theorist (I generally favor greed-flavored incompetence as an explanation for bad behavior) but I’m starting to see why no one seems to be in a hurry to get the serology testing done.

@JordanSchachtel: NYC is continuing show a very significant decrease in the doubling rate re: hospitalization. Last week, it was doubling every 2.5 days. On Sunday, doubling rate was at 6 days. We are now down to doubling about every 8 days, and declining. This is a very positive development.

@bespokeinvest: New York is the only state where tests as a percentage of the population is above 1%. Reported number of tests in NY State was down 16% versus the prior day and 4% versus the average of the last 7 days.[Yet Fauci & Birx keep issuing dire projections?!?!]

@NolteNC: Throughout the world, 44K deaths in a little over 3 months.  Seems incredible to me we’re going to lose 100K to 220K here in the U.S. alone over just a few weeks.

@ClayTravis: Daily coronavirus positivity: cases in Italy drop for an 11th straight day since a peak was set on 3/21. Plus, five straight days of lower cases after peaks in Spain & Germany. Those are the three countries in Europe with the most cases, all declininghttps://worldometers.info/coronavirus/

@gatewaypundit: OUTRAGEOUS! Hidden from the American Public — 74-78% of COVID-19 Patients have At Least One Underlying Health Problemhttps://thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/outrageous-hidden-from-the-american-public-74-78-of-covid-19-patients-have-at-least-one-underlying-health-problem/

QuickTake by Bloomberg @QuickTake: Citing a Covid-19 projection model created by a group funded by the Gates Foundation, Gov. Andrew Cuomo says that there could be a high death rate through July

@Jordan_Sather_: LLOOLL so Bill Gates pens an opinion piece for THE WASHINGTON POST of all places (aka the CIA Amazon Post), and course half this article was about needing a “safe and effective” vaccine to end the pandemic https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bill-gates-heres-how-to-make-up-for-lost-time-on-covid-19/2020/03/31/ab5c3cf2-738c-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html

@ABC: Citing inadequate compliance with social distancing rules, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo says, “We are going to close down the New York City playgrounds.” Cuomo says less dense open areas of parks will remain openhttps://abcn.ws/2yqP5ue

After Cuomo’s daily Covid-19 briefing ended, a modest rally developed.  It was time for conditioned traders to get long for expected indexer buying at or near the close.  The rally ended near the VIX Fix.  New lows appeared when the final hour began.  The session low appeared at 15:44 ET.  The usual suspects then manipulated ESMs and stocks higher to boost the marks on their inventory.  ESMs rallied 32 handles from 15:44 ET to 14:56 ET.  They rescinded 12 handles of the rally by the NYSE close.  ESMs fell another 5 handles after the NYSE close.  Manipulators didn’t liquidate enough by the close.

The ADP Employment Change for March is -27k; -150k was expected.  Those making the projection don’t understand how data is derived in most of the surveys that they forecast.  The ADP number was derived on March 12.  It wasn’t until a week later that the panic and shutdowns began.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/coronavirus-march-adp-private-sector-jobs

The same will be true of the March Employment Report, which is scheduled for Friday.  The BLS samples households during the week that contains the 12th of the month.  This period is more than a week before the stuff hit the fan.  The BLS is likely to address this in its March report.

The BLS: Each month, highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees contact the 60,000 eligible sample households [Household Survey] and ask about the labor force activities (jobholding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month)…   https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.pdf

BLS: CES [Establishment Survey] requests data for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month…

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesfaq.htm

Muni Market Rout Returns with Record Exodus Fueling Cash Strain

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/muni-market-rout-returns-with-record-exodus-fueling-cash-strains

@jsolomonReports: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis… issues stay-at-home order to slow virus.

BBG: China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report https://trib.al/m5xhKRh

Several days ago, China conduits published reports that the US is exceeding China in Covid-19 cases – even though everyone knows China is issuing fake Covid-19 data.  Immediately, the Trump-hating MSM published similar stories.  And low and behold, just like impeachment, Russian collusion, etc. the negative stories have helped Trump.

The MSM keeps trying to exacerbate the Covid-19 panic and the destruction of the US economy in the misguided belief, like impeachment, that this will harm Trump’s re-election chances.  Instead, like impeachment, they are boosting him.  DJT realizes that the more severe the Covid-19 crisis appears, the more people will look to him for solutions and comfort – and he will derive a yuge benefit if he succeeds.

This is why DJT is allowing Fauci and Birx to scare the Schiff out of Americans.  DJT now realizes Americans will not blame the stock market and economic collapse on him.  However, they will reward him for making sound and well-reasoned decisions during the Covid-19 crisis.  This typically happens in all crises, unless an official really screws up.  There is a reason that FDR got re-elected in 1936 and 1940 while the Great Depression flared.

CNN: New estimates show 25% to 50% of coronavirus carriers don’t even feel sick and can infect others blindly   https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/health/us-coronavirus-updates-wednesday/index.html

@JonathanTurley: Today Sen. Warren joined others in objecting to the federal government outbidding the states on material as “a new and inexplicable obstacle.” Leaders cannot have it both ways in calling for the government to step up on supplies while calling for it to step back on purchases…

Michigan Democrat Gov. Begs Feds for Hydroxychloroquine Just Days after Threatening Doctors for Prescribing It  https://www.zerohedge.com/political/michigan-democrat-governor-begs-feds-hydroxychloroquine-just-days-after-threatening

The Senator Who Saw the Coronavirus Coming

While others slept, Tom Cotton was warning anyone who would listen that the coronavirus was coming for America.  On January 22, one day before the Chinese government began a quarantine of Wuhan to contain the spread of the virus, the Arkansas senator sent a letter to Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar encouraging the Trump administration to consider banning travel between China and the United States and warning that the Communist regime could be covering up how dangerous the disease really was… At the time, the Senate impeachment trial was dominating the news cycle…    Cotton’s public and private warnings became more urgent that last week of January. In a January 28 letter…called for an immediate evacuation of Americans in China and a ban on all commercial flights between China and the U.S.  Cotton first spoke to President Trump about the virus the next day… 

    “The CDC should not have acted like know-it-all bureaucrats who had the only medical and scientific expertise to develop tests. We have lots and lots of very capable labs all around the country,” Cotton says. “The FDA should not put all of its eggs in the CDC basket. . . . They were slow to use their emergency-use authorization.” In a January 26 appearance on Face the Nation, Cotton called on the FDA to expedite approval for testing to state and local governments…

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/the-senator-who-saw-the-coronavirus-coming/

@RealCandaceO: In 2017, scientists for the Journal of Infectious diseases came together to study why an excess of 24,000 elderly Italians were dying during flu season. Their conclusion? Bc they were old. But for COVID19 that conclusion is now considered bigotry.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121930328

Sanitizer opposed by CDC kills coronavirus “surrogate” in lab tests [The CDC needs major reforms.]

BZK hand-rub products demonstrate greater longevity than alcohol-based ones in killing bacteria…

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/coronavirus/exclusive-sanitizer-opposed-by-cdc-kills-coronavirus-surrogate-in-lab-tests

North Carolina Insiders Risk Criminal Probe After Exposure to Sen. Burr at Private Event

If any members of the Tar Heel Circle engaged in significant securities sales after Burr’s talk, should they be concerned? Lawyering up? Unfortunately for them, probably so. That is because both civil and criminal law forbids recipients of confidential information from trading on it…

https://www.barrons.com/articles/north-carolina-insiders-exposure-senator-burr-private-event-club-members-51585774450

@realDonaldTrump: Upon information and belief, Iran or its proxies are planning a sneak attack on U.S. troops and/or assets in Iraq. If this happens, Iran will pay a very heavy price, indeed!

When asked about Iran, Trump said Iran wants to make a deal but they been given some very bad advice by former Secretary John Kerry, which is the Logan Act, but we’d have to look at the Logan Act…

https://twitter.com/michaelbeatty3/status/1245477449271410688

@bennyjohnson: President Trump: “We will have spent $8 trillion in the Middle East…all we got out of it was death and cost. It’s time we spend money on our country… It’s time that we start spending on… all of the things that we’re supposed to be spending on.”

At DJT’s daily Covid-19 briefing for Wednesday, the president brought Barr and Gen. (Rambo) Milley to warn Mexican drug cartels that the US is after them.

DJT: “Today, the United States is launching enhanced counter narcotics operations in the Western Hemisphere to protect the American people from the deadly scourge of illegal narcotics…”

https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1245468278669152257

Gen. Milley: “We came across some intelligence that drug cartels were going to take advantage of Covid-19… We’re at war with Covid-19. We’re at war with terrorists, and we are at war with the drug cartels as well. This is the United States Military.  We will defend our country regardless of the cost.”

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1245469000290562048

BBC Alex Cifuentes, a Colombian drug lord who has described himself as El Chapo’s “right-hand man”…alleges Mr Pena Nieto contacted El Chapo after taking office in 2012, asking for $250m in return for ending a manhunt for the drug cartel kingpin. El Chapo instead offered him $100m, which the new president allegedly accepted…  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46282173

If El Chapo gave the ex-president of Mexico a $100m bride, what are the odds that drug cartels or kingpins bribed some US officials?

@SolomonSyed: Dr. Fauci: “If we get to the other side of the curve” then it would make sense to allow major sporting events and ease Social Distancing restrictions. Says “Vaccine is on target… for a year to a year-and-a-half” but still in phase one of development.

Jobless Claims: Some economists see weekly filings surging to 5.5 million  https://yhoo.it/2yra3ZX

From Wednesday’s King Report: A big conflict in the market now: US Covid-19 data that is NOT tracking with Drs. Fauci & Birx’s troubling projections.  Their forecasts have induced Trump, as well as [mostly Blue State] governors and mayors, to impose or extend ‘stay in shelter’ orders.

@jennfranconews: President Trump’s National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien says the U.S. will work with the world’s largest oil producers to address volatility in global oil markets.  President Trump says he’ll hold discussions with oil producers Friday or Saturday.  Oil is +0.91 at 20:00 ET.

From Wednesday’s King Report: If you’re looking for a dead-cat bounce vehicle after the next down leg: Oil crashed 66.86% in Q1.

California should be, as predicted in so many models, ground zero of infection.  How… has California in the third month of known COVID-19 infections in the U.S. lost between 140 and 150 lives to it?…

    So given the state’s unprecedented direct air access to China, and given its large expatriate and tourist Chinese communities, especially in its huge denser metropolitan corridors in Los Angeles and the Bay Area, it could be that what thousands of Californians experienced as an unusually “early” and “bad” flu season might have also reflected an early coronavirus epidemic, suggesting that many more Californians per capita than in other states may have acquired immunity to the virus…We won’t know the answers until antibody testing becomes widespread…

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-california-herd-immunity/

Flu fatalities double in California since 2020’s start, with 149 now dead. How app is tracking it

The number of flu-related deaths more than doubled in California over the first two weeks of the new year, rising to 149 on Jan. 18 from 70 on Jan. 4, according to the latest report from the California Department of Public Health…  https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article239614573.html

‘Double-Barreled’ Flu Season Slams California in Deadliest Week   Feb 1, 2020

The flu’s death toll continues to climb in California, and many will get sick twice because of outbreaks of the Influenza A and B strains… https://patch.com/california/studiocity/double-barreled-flu-season-slams-california-deadliest-week

Flu death toll quietly soared to 328 in California as coronavirus fears gripped U.S.  Feb 20, 2020

Public health officials announced Jan. 21 that the first confirmed case of COVID-19 arrived in the U.S. Since then, 14 other cases have been reported. During that same time period, more than 100 people have died of the flu in California. All told, the state Department of Public Health reported figures on Friday that show the death toll from the flu is 58 percent higher now than in the comparable period last year. In the 2019-20 season, CDPH said, 328 people died of influenza, roughly 80 percent of them since the new year began… https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article240444276.html

@tracybeanz: I’ve been having a lot of discussions with close, personal friends lately about a mystery sickness they had in early December…12/12/19 Doc tells patient “A lot of weird contagious pneumonia going around….”

A severe flu, or whatever, ravaged our family in early November.  It lasted 2 to 3 weeks – and everyone had severe coughing.  I devoured so many cough drops that after two weeks, I switched to hard coffee candy.  I had to have a cough drop or lozenge in my mouth to sleep.  Was it harsh flu or something else?

Engineer deliberately ran train off tracks in attempt to smash the USNS Mercy

Federal prosecutors allege train engineer Eduardo Moreno, 44, of San Pedro intended to hit the ship, saying he thought it was “suspicious” and did not believe “the ship is what they say it’s for.'”…

https://abc7.com/officials-engineer-tried-to-smash-train-into-usns-mercy/6069395/

Well that is all for today

 

I will see you FRIDAY night.

 

One comment

  1. J Pronk · · Reply

    “There is no question that Hydroxychloroquin in combination with Azithromycin 250 will fight the Covid 19. What really happens is that the drug binds with zinc, bringing it across the membrane barrier into the blood stream. Zinc then enters the virus and zinc interferes with RNA polymerase which is the virus replicating machine..and thus the virus is killed off…”

    Your old profession…..

    Like

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