APRIL 7A//GOLD UP SLIGHTLY AT 30 CENTS TO $1650.60//SILVER UP 26 CENTS TO 15.11//AT THE GOLD COMEX ALMOST 84 TONNES IS STANDING FOR THE MONTH FOR DELIVERY: EXCEEDS PREVIOUS RECORD BY ALMOST 100%//THE ECB FOR THE FIRST TIME ACCEPTING GREEK DEBT..MUST NEED FOR JUNK TO BUY!!//PERENNIAL DEFAULTER ARGENTINA DEFAULTS AGAIN FOR THE 9TH TIME IN THEIR SHORT HISTORY//USA TO GIVE MORE HELICOPTER MONEY FOR SMALL BUSINESS: $200 BILLION

GOLD:$1650.60  UP $0.30   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

Silver:$15.11//UP $.26  London spot price

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

i)Gold : $1649.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $15.02//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $1669.30

JUNE GOLD:  $1687.40  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $36.80

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $15.43…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY: 32 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 808 NOTICE(S) FOR 80,800 OZ (2.513 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  25941 NOTICES FOR 2,594,100 OZ  (80.687 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

 

 

21 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 105,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 779 for 3,895,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $7385 UP $56 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $7197 DOWN $220

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $0.30: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

 

WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES (PAPER TONNES/NOT REAL STUFF)

 

GLD: 984.26 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..

 

 

 

 

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 401.541  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1862 CONTRACTS FROM 138,738 UP TO 140,600 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 26 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A CONSIDERABLE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ALONG WITH A STRONG GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING. WE HAD A VERY STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2601 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 739 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  713 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 739 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 739 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.695 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 26 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.045  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 26 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE TOTALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET GAIN OF 2601 CONTRACTS OR 13.00 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER JUDGING BY THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MAY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

3651 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 3651 CONTRACTS) OR 18.255 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 730 CONTRACTS OR 3.651 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 18.255 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.60% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          911.74 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR                   18.255 MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1862, WITH THE $0.26 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 739 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2601 CONTRACTS (WITH THE 26 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 739 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1862 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 26 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.11 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY AS WELL AS A GOOD INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING//AMOUNT STANDING!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.693 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 99.0% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 21 NOTICE(S) FOR  105,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.035 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 5575 CONTRACTS TO 489,872 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY COMEX PRICE GAIN  OF $0.30 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A STRONG  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT HUGE GOOD ADVANCE IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD. THUS THE GAIN ON THE COMEX WAS DUE TO  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, A  VERY STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING  AND OUR CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS , . WE GAINED A STRONG 10,524 CONTRACTS  (32.730 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 6159 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 4949.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 4949.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 489,686. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,524 CONTRACTS: 5575 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4949 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 10,524 CONTRACTS OR 32.73 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A TINY GAIN OF $0.30 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT HUGE GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 32.73  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (ROSE $0.30). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL  ( SEE BELOW). I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO ADD THAT WE HAD ZERO ISSUANCE OF THOSE NEW 4 GC CONTRACTS. 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 WE HAD  A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (4949) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN COMEX OI  (5575 OI):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  10,524 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A MONSTROUS INCREASE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT TINY GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 26,647 CONTRACTS OR 2,664,700 oz OR 82.88 TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5329 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 82.88 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 82.88/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.33% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2405.78  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (//(*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)
APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               82.88  TONNES

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE IS NOW DECLINING!!

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1862 CONTRACTS FROM 138,738 UP TO 140,600 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A CONSIDERABLE SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 739 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 739; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 739 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1862 CONTRACTS TO THE 739 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2601 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  13.000 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ//APRIL 4.045 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 26 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 739 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. THE ENTIRE LOSS OF COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR PHYSICALS.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 56.78 POINTS OR 2.05%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 504.17 POINTS OR 2.12%   /The Nikkei closed UP 504.17 POINTS OR 2.12%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0550 /Oil UP TO 26.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and 33.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0550 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0681 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

LET US BEGIN:

Let us head over to the comex:

GOLD

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 5575 CONTRACTS TO 489,676 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI GAIN WAS SET WITH A TINY GAIN OF $0.30 IN GOLD PRICING //MONDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE (4949 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)    ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH THAT HUGE STANDING  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,524 CONTRACTS.

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4949 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 4149 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4149 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  10,524 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4949 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5575 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE BY $0.30). THEY WERE   UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 33.28 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 10,524 CONTRACTS OR 1,052,400 OZ OR 32.73 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  489,696 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 48.96 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1522 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1522/2200 OR 69.24% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 202,191 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY212,167 contracts//

APRIL 7

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 240,843.181 oz

BRINKS

MANFRA

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

888,338.741

OZ

BRINKS

HSBC

MALCA

 

 

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
808 notice(s)
 80,800 OZ
(2.513 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
944 contracts
(94400 oz)
2.93 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
25,941 notices
2,594.100 OZ
80.687 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

i ) We had 2 deposits into the dealer

i) into the dealer Brinks: 208,917.238 oz

ii) Into the dealer Manfra: 31,925.943 oz

total dealer deposits: 240,843.181  oz

total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 3 deposit into the customer account

i) Into BRINKS:  112,817.859 OZ

ii) Into HSBC 46,273.702 oz

 

iii) Into Malca 72,247.180 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 888,338.741  oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil   oz

We had 2 small kilo transactions and thus everything is basically physical

We had only one 4 KC bar transaction

ADJUSTMENTS: 5

the first two:  dealer to the customer:

Brinks:  480.265 oz from the dealer to the customer Brinks

Manfra:  64.296 oz from the dealer to the customer Manfra. 2 kilobars

the next 3 customer to dealer:

i) Delaware: 2411.325 oz from customer to dealer:  75 kilobars

ii) HSBC: 31,132.34 oz from customer to dealer

iii) Manfra: 19,387.053  oz from customer to dealer.

Here is a snapshot of gold metal at the Comex

the underlined gold coloured items are the 4 GC gold:

all of these bars are in London and not in New York

METAL DEPOSITORY STATISTICS
GOLD Report Date: 4/7/2020
Troy Ounce Activity Date: 4/6/2020

DEPOSITORY PREV TOTAL RECEIVED WITHDRAWN NET CHANGE ADJUSTMENT TOTAL TODAY

BRINK’S, INC.
Registered 537,515.668 208,917.238 0.000 208,917.238 -482.265 745,950.641
Eligible 494,633.786 112,817.859 0.000 112,817.859 482.265 607,933.910
Total 1,032,149.454 321,735.097 0.000 321,735.097 0.000 1,353,884.551

BRINK’S, INC.- ENHANCED DELIVERY (400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS)
Registered 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Eligible 38,874.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 38,874.004
Total 38,874.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 38,874.004

DELAWARE DEPOSITORY
Registered 31,954.664 0.000 0.000 0.000 2,411.325 34,365.989
Eligible 111,857.457 0.000 0.000 0.000 -2,411.325 109,446.132
Total 143,812.121 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 143,812.121

DELAWARE DEPOSITORY – ENHANCED DELIVERY (400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS)
Registered 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Eligible 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Total 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HSBC BANK, USA
Registered 979,065.688 0.000 0.000 0.000 31,132.340 1,010,198.028
Pledged 176,211.457 176,211.457
Eligible 4,227,974.525 46,273.702 0.000 46,273.702 -31,132.340 4,243,115.887
Total 5,207,040.213 46,273.702 0.000 46,273.702 0.000 5,253,313.915

HSBC BANK, USA – ENHANCED DELIVERY (400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS)
Registered 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Eligible 691,811.845 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 691,811.845
Total 691,811.845 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 691,811.845

INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE
Registered 262,061.457 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 262,061.457
Eligible 165,609.801 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 165,609.801
Total 427,671.258 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 427,671.258

INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE -ENHANCED DELIVERY (400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS)
Registered 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Eligible 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Total 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA
Registered 1,691,368.184 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1,691,368.184
Pledged 341,434.443 341,434.443
Eligible 892,713.231 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 892,713.231
Total 2,584,081.415 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2,584,081.415

JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA – ENHANCED DELIVERY (400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS)
Registered 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Eligible 4,078,063.401 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4,078,063.401
Total 4,078,063.401 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4,078,063.401

LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) INC.
Registered 67,611.450 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 67,611.450
Eligible 4,283.718 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4,283.718
Total 71,895.168 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 71,895.168

LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) INC.- ENHANCED DELIVERY (400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS)
Registered 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Eligible 24,404.707 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 24,404.707
Total 24,404.707 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 24,404.707

MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC
Registered 97,860.468 0.000 0.000 0.000 -64.296 97,796.172
Eligible 818,357.532 729,247.180 0.000 729,247.180 64.296 1,547,669.008
Total 916,218.000 729,247.180 0.000 729,247.180 0.000 1,645,465.180

MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC – ENHANCED DELIVERY (400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS)
Registered 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Eligible 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Total 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC.
Registered 2,787.574 31,925.943 0.000 31,925.943 19,387.053 54,100.570
Eligible 26,852.066 0.000 0.000 0.000 -19,387.053 7,465.013
Total 29,639.640 31,925.943 0.000 31,925.943 0.000 61,565.583

MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC.- ENHANCED DELIVERY (400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS)
Registered 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Eligible 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Total 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA
Registered 399,292.992 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 399,292.992
Pledged 42,548.308 42,548.308
Eligible 266,980.415 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 266,980.415
Total 666,273.407 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 666,273.407

THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA – ENHANCED DELIVERY (400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS)
Registered 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Eligible 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Total 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

TOTAL REGISTERED 4,069,518.145 240,843.181 0.000 240,843.181 52,384.157 4,362,745.483
TOTAL PLEDGED 560,194.208 560,194.208
TOTAL ELIGIBLE 11,842,416.488 888,338.741 0.000 888,338.741 -52,384.157 12,678,371.072
COMBINED TOTAL 15,911,934.633 1,129,181.922 0.000 1,129,181.922 0.000 17,041,116.555

Note: 400 OZ AND ELIGIBLE BRANDS INCLUDES 400 OZ BARS AS WELL AS KILO AND 100 OZ BAR BRANDS ONLY ELIGIBLE FOR DELIVERY FOR THE GOLD ENHANCED DELIVERY (4GC) CONTRACT. KILO AND 100 OZ BARS ELIGIBLE FOR BOTH 4GC AND GOLD (GC) CONTRACT ARE INCLUDED IN REGULAR GOLD DEPOSITORY STOCKS. COMBINED TOTAL REPRESENTS TOTAL REGISTERED, TOTAL PLEDGED, TOTAL ELIGIBLE STOCKS FOR BOTH GOLD ENHANCED DELIVERY AND GOLD CONTRACTS.
COMMODITY EXCHANGE, INC.
COMMODITY EXCHANGE, INC.
COMMODITY EXCHANGE, INC.

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 1752 contracts for a loss of ONLY 154 contacts. We had 808 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A VERY STRONG 490  contracts or 49,000 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and they also negated a fiat bonus

 

 

May saw its ANOTHER GAIN of 2 contracts to stand at  2151.

June saw a  GAIN OF 2740 contracts up to 357,112

 

 

We had 808XX notices filed today for 80,800 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 226 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 808 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 440 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (25,941) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (1752 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (808 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,688,500 OZ OR 83.623 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (25,941)x 100 oz)  + 1752 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (808 x 100 oz )which equals 2,639,500 oz standing OR 83.623 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

We gained 490 contracts OR an additional 49,000 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the this side of the pond, first before travelling to London..

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

341,434.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.62 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  560,194.208  OZ OR 17.424  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 109.15 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS

total registered or dealer gold:   4,362,745.483 oz or  135.699 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  341,434.443 oz (or 10.6200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  560,194.208 oz or 17.424 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 3,802,551.2  (118.27 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  3,802,551.2 (118.27 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   17,041.116.555 oz 530.05 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

 

end

 

SILVER

 

April 7/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1862 CONTRACTS FROM 138,738 UP TO 140,600 (AND MOVING CLOSER TO FROM OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 50 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/MONDAY.  THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH 1)  A CONSIDERABLE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION OCCURRING WITH OUR HUGE SILVER ADVANCE. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 51 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH LOST 3 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 21 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN, GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR 10,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 914  UP TO 75,288.

JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 16 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 33.

 

 

We, today, had  21XX notice(s) FILED  for 105,000, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

APRIL 8/2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 314,740.209 oz
CNT

 

DELAWARE

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
21
CONTRACT(S)
(105,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
30 contracts
 150,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  779 contracts

3,895,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.170 million

total customer deposits today: 607,477.800   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of CNT:  299,817.140
ii) Out of Delaware: 14,869.069 oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  314,740.209  oz

We had 0 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.178 million

total dealer + customer silver:  321.302 million oz

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 21 contract(s) FOR 105,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 779 x 5,000 oz = 3,895,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.( 51) and the number of notices served upon today 21 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 779 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (51)- number of notices served upon today (21) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.equals 4,045,000 oz.

WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT  THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 85,509 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY:  66,070 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 66,070 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 330 million  OZ  47.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO +0.55% ((APRIL 7/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO +0.70% to NAV:   (APRIL 7/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 0.55%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.18 TRADING 15.18///DISCOUNT 0.00

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

APRIL 7/2020/  984.26 tonnes*

IN LAST 794 TRADING DAYS:   +39.57 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 694 TRADING DAYS;+214.55  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

 

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

 

 

APRIL 7.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

401.541 MILLION OZ.

END

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.50/ and libor 6 month duration 1.24

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 1.26

gold:nowhere to be seen

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.37%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.04

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.33

gold: nowhere to be seen.

end

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Investors now are asking the most impt. question: do I put money in gold with a 5000 yr track record or fiat currency.

James Turk/Kingworldnews)

Plenty of money for debasement now, Turk tells KWN

 Section: 

12:10p ET Monday, April 6, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Price charts, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News today, indicate a quick and substantial rise in gold.

Turk adds: “Now that investors once again have liquidity in the form of U.S. dollars and other fiat currency, they are asking themselves what is safer: Physical gold with its 5,000-year track record, or fiat currency that is likely to see an accelerated rate of debasement in the months immediately ahead? Owning physical gold and silver in my view is the safer alternative.”

Turk’s interview can be found at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-gold-should-hurdle-1700-in-days-but…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Argentina suspends payment on its dollar denominate bonds to concentrate on spending on the coronavirus pandemic crisis

(Associated Press)

see story below as well.

Argentina suspends payment on dollar-denominated bonds for a year

 Section: 

From the Associated Press
via the Washington Times
Monday, April 6, 2020

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/6/argentina-delays-payment…

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Argentina announced today it is postponing payment on dollar-denominated bonds until next year in order to prioritize spending the coronavirus pandemic crisis.

… 

The decree covers interest and amortization of capital on public debt issued under Argentine law in U.S. dollars. No announcement has been made on debt issued in the United States or elsewhere.

It did not specify the total amount affected, but local news media said it could reach $10 billion, with the first payments due in May.

* * *

END

German financial magazine report on gold price manipulation cites GATA

 Section: 

2:48p ET Monday, April 6, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA, our board member Ed Steer, and our consultant Robert Lambourne are cited in a report about gold market manipulation by Rainer Kromarek in this month’s edition of Germany’s Smart Money magazine. The report has been posted at the WallStreet-Online internet site in Germany here —

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/12358284-edelmetalle-gold-sil…

— and if it is opened by a Google Chrome browser, an English translation can be created.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0550/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0681   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 56/78 POINTS OR 2.05%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 504.17 POINTS OR 2.12%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 373.88 POINTS OR 2.01%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 100.19/Euro RISES TO 1.0866

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.09/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 26.90 and Brent: 33.98

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.37%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.50% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.74%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.87: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.89

3k Gold at $1654.30 silver at: 15.17   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 47/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.58

3m oil into the 26 dollar handle for WTI and 33 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.09 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9735 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0581 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.37%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.75% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.34%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.7644..

Futures, Global Markets Soar For Second Day As Virus Fears Fade, Dollars Slides

Global markets rallied for the second day as signs of progress against the coronavirus in both Europe and the United States and more aggressive helpings of stimulus kept investors charging back in.  US index futures bounced for a second straight day on Tuesday as risk appetite returned on tentative signs that the coronavirus outbreak was starting to plateau in hard-hit U.S. states.

At 0730 ET, Dow e-minis were up 816 points, or 3.7%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 83.75 points, or 3.1% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 235 points, or 2.9%. Tuesday’s rally followed a 7% surge on Monday after the governors of New York and New Jersey said their states, hot spots of the COVID-19 disease, were showing early signs of a “flattening” of the outbreak. But they warned against complacency as the nationwide death toll approached 11,000 and global infections surged past 1.3 million.

“Even if we have reached the peak, the lockdowns around the globe may be extended for a while more as governments may want to ensure that the virus has indeed been contained,” said Charalambos Pissouros, senior market analyst at JFD Group. “We believe that the global economy may start recovering well after the peak of the pandemic.”

 

Worldwide, the virus has infected more than 1.3 million people and killed over 74,000, and though the numbers are still rising in many highly-populated countries, some tentative improvements have given hope. In hardest-hit Italy and Spain, authorities have started looking ahead to easing lockdowns after steady falls in fatality rates. In the United States too, the daily number of deaths in the country’s worst-affected area, New York, has also shown signs of steadying.

There was an added boost from commodity markets as oil climbed nearly 3% on supply cut hopes, after Russian Tass reported that OPEC+ is discussing an output cut for 3 months, while currency markets also came alive as a tumbling dollar saw the euro race out of a six-session rut of falls. Exxon Mobil, Marathon Oil and Apache Corp rose between 4% and 10% in premarket trading as oil prices rallied amid hopes the world’s main oil producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia would agree to cut output at a meeting on Thursday.

Oilfield services firm Halliburton Co jumped 7.3% after saying it was cutting about 350 jobs in Oklahoma and that its executives would reduce their salaries.

European stocks also put in another healthy start with Eurostoxx 50 and DAX rallying ~3-3.5%, with various European markets entering a 20% bull market from the lows. Travel and Leisure stocks lead, gaining over 7%, autos and insurance names join in the outperformance. S&P futures rise 2.5%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index also advanced, led by travel and leisure shares, after the rate of new infections slowed in France and in Italy, the original epicenter of the continent’s outbreak. The Eurogroup of finance ministers within the single euro zone currency bloc are scheduled to meet later on Tuesday,and analysts expect more joint action to help prop up the economies of member states.

“A day does not a trend make, a week does not a trend make… but we think the market is bottoming out,” said Jeff Mortimer, Director of Investment Strategy at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “We are trying to get clients to understand that (in market performance terms) better times ahead can come more quickly then you expected.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also gained, led by energy and IT, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising more than 2% after adding nearly 3% a day earlier. Most markets in the region were up, with India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index gaining 7.4% and Thailand’s SET rising 6.8%, while Jakarta Composite dropped 0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei followed up Wall Street’s 7% surge on Monday with a 2% jump as its government promised a near $1 trillion stimulus package – equal to a fifth of its GDP.  The Topix gained 2%, with Artra and TORQ Inc rising the most.

Chinese stocks climbed and the yuan strengthened in the wake of further targeted stimulus by policy makers as Shanghai reopened after a long weekend with Liaoning SG Automotive Group and V V Food & Beverage posting the biggest advances. China said it didn’t have any new deaths for the first time since the pandemic emerged.

Optimism on the direction of equity markets will be difficult to maintain until we see more clarity on the corporate earnings outlook and until the dispersion of analysts’ forecasts subsides,” Marija Veitmane, a multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets, wrote in a note.

In FX, the dollar, which has been soaking up safe-haven flows for weeks, slipped against most major currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.8% to the lowest since April 2 as the greenback fell against all Group- of-10 peers.

Norway’s krone and the Australian dollar led gains as equity markets traded higher and oil prices rose on signs that producers are moving toward a deal to end their price war. The euro shot up 0.7% to $1.0865 to snap a six-day run of falls, the pound climbed despite Britain’s Prime Minister remaining in intensive care, and the Australian dollar jumped over 1.5% to its highest in a week. New Zealand’s dollar rose 1.3% too, while the Japanese yen shook off an early dip to clamber up to 108.92 per U.S. dollar.

In rates, bonds are broadly offered, curves bear steepening. USTs underperform Bunds by 1.5bps with 10y Treasury yields. U.S. yields rose to 0.73% having fallen almost 9 basis points on Monday, and Bund yields were up 6-9 basis points across the curve. Cyprus, one of the lower-rated countries in the bloc, is marketing a seven-year and 30-year bond issuance. In Asia Indonesia issued a 50-year bond.

“Investors have recently been detecting growing public support for the concept of coronabonds in European Commission and ECB circles,” said DZ Bank analyst Daniel Lenz, adding that German ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel was among those who appeared to voice support.

In commodities, it wasn’t only oil driving commodities markets higher either, copper punched up to a 3-week high with a 3% gain for industrial metals, while safe-haven gold faded after a furious rally on Monday.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 2.5% to 2,709.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 2.8% to 329.57
  • MXAP up 2.3% to 139.42
  • MXAPJ up 2.4% to 450.51
  • Nikkei up 2% to 18,950.18
  • Topix up 2% to 1,403.21
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.1% to 24,253.29
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.1% to 2,820.76
  • Sensex up 7.8% to 29,742.13
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,252.29
  • Kospi up 1.8% to 1,823.60
  • German 10Y yield rose 5.2 bps to -0.373%
  • Euro up 0.6% to $1.0858
  • Brent Futures up 1.4% to $33.51/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 6.0 bps to 1.319%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.9 bps to 0.752%
  • Brent futures up 2.2% to $33.79/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,655.44
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.5% to 100.18

Top Overnight News

  • The U.K. is facing a leadership crisis as it heads into the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, with PM Johnson in intensive care and his government under pressure to get a grip on the outbreak. U.K. risks a new surge in hospital demand as hospices fear closure
  • The EU’s finance ministers on Tuesday will seek to endorse a list of measures worth more than half-a-trillion euros to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on the region’s economies
  • Australia’s central bank kept its interest rate and yield target unchanged Tuesday, having scooped up A$36 billion ($22 billion) in government bonds since implementing unconventional monetary policy
  • China reported no new coronavirus deaths for the first time since the pandemic emerged, adding to signs that the crisis may be easing in some areas. Italy, France, Germany and Spain reported lower numbers of new cases while in New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo said deaths were showing indications of hitting a plateau
  • Congress’s next stimulus bill to prop up the U.S. economy during the coronavirus crisis will be at least another $1 trillion, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Democrats on a private conference call
  • Oil resumed gains on signs the world’s biggest producers are moving toward a deal to call off their price war and cut output as the coronavirus eviscerates energy demand around the world
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe moved to declare a state of emergency in seven prefectures including Tokyo and Osaka, and announced a record economic stimulus package as the country braces for a surge in coronavirus infections
  • The number of daily recoveries from coronavirus in Germany for the first time exceeded new cases
  • There’s a bit of a correction underway in funding markets. The spread between three-month dollar Libor and overnight index swaps has been edging tighter, suggesting domestic funding conditions are easing
  • Chinese firms are getting ready for discount deals in Europe, where the coronavirus pandemic has sent companies scrambling for cash to stay in business

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the considerable pick up on Wall St where all major indices finished higher by at least 7.0% and the DJIA notched a more than 1600-point gain amid hopes of a slowdown in the coronavirus outbreak after encouraging numbers from various hot spots, although some economists warned caution given that the economy was far from out of the woods and the latest reports suggested the daily death toll in the US remained at an alarming level of 1150 according to the Johns Hopkins tracker. ASX 200 (-0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.0%) were both boosted and surged over 2% shortly after the open although gains in Australia then waned amid losses in the healthcare sector and cautiousness heading into the RBA decision, while the Japanese benchmark briefly broke above the 19000 level supported by better than expected Housing Spending data and plans for a JPY 108tln package but later gave back a majority of gains heading into the state of emergency declaration. Hang Seng (+2.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+2.1%) were also positive with outperformance seen in the mainland as it plays catch up on return from the extended weekend and took its first opportunity to react to the PBoC’s 100bps targeted RRR cut announcement. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as prices bounced back from support around the 152.00 level and with the BoJ offering to buy JPY 150bln of corporate bonds, although upside was also capped due to the mostly upbeat risk tone and following weaker results at the 30yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Dubai Weighs Bond and Emirates Mulls Loans as Virus Hits Economy
  • Qatar Looks to Raise More Than $5 Billion With ‘Dream’ Eurobond
  • Indonesia Says New York Fed Will Provide $60 Billion Credit Line
  • U.S. Blacklist Hurt Megvii’s Sales Before IPO Attempt

European stocks post another straight session of gains in early trade [Euro Stoxx 50 +3.5%], following a mostly positive APAC handover, as participants see optimism on the COVID-19 containments front and heading into the Eurogroup meeting on Finance Ministers, in which three stimulus measures are expected to be discussed. Broad-based gains are seen across the major European bourses, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+5.2%) outperforms in the periphery, with the index’s large financial sector benefitting from price action in the fixed income complex – and as the region feels tailwinds from the ECB allocating a lion’s share of its bond-buying (35%) to Italian debt in March. Sectors are all in positive territory and reflect a “risk-on” mood, with cyclicals outpacing defensives, Financials benefit from the high-yield environment. The theme of today is a sharp rebound across stocks and sectors that have been decimated on the COVID-19 outbreak. The sector breakdown sees Travel & Leisure notably outperforming, whilst Auto names follow a close second. Thus, easyJet (+18.9%), Carnival (+18.8%) among the top gainers in the region, whilst aircraft engine makers Rolls Royce (+14.0%) and Safran (+9.0%) also see gains in excess of 10%, having recently been hit on the prospects of declining aircraft productions on lower demand. On the flip side, Healthcare names are softer given the sector’s relative buoyancy during the demise of riskier stocks – AstraZeneca (-1.8%), Novo Nordisk (-1.5%).

Top European News

  • Europe Seen Facing Imminent Risk of Critical Medicine Shortages
  • Germany’s Number of Coronavirus Recoveries Exceeds New Cases
  • Europe’s Electricity Demand Slump Shows Signs of Stabilizing
  • Swedish Banks Get Reprieve on Bail-In Bond Rule Amid Tumult

In FX, the Dollar is softer across the board amidst another upturn in sentiment on the hope that tentative signs of COVID-19 curve flattening do not prove short-lived and completely dashed by Tuesday’s global updates on the state of the virus. The DXY has retreated a bit further from recent recovery highs just shy of 101.000 as a result and is now hovering a fraction above 100.000 with little in the way of technical support before March 31’s high (99.948) to supplement the obvious psychological props.

  • AUD/NZD – The Aussie is outperforming after the RBA maintained rates overnight and offered some exit policy guidance, albeit somewhat premature at this still very formative stage. However, bolstered by the aforementioned less downbeat risk tone Aud/Usd has built on advances through 0.6150 and got to within a whisker of 0.6200 before running out of momentum, while Aud/Nzd has crossed 1.0300 as the Kiwi failed to sustain 0.6000+ status in wake of NZIER sentiment sinking in Q1 and ahead of latest bi-weekly GDT auction results.
  • NOK/GBP/EUR – The Norwegian Crown looks all set to extend its bull run against the backdrop of firm oil prices in the run up to Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting that Russia will attend and is reportedly nearing an agreement with Saudi Arabia about how many bpd to cut in order to stabilise the cost of crude. Eur/Nok has been down to circa 11.1060 even though the single currency has unwound declines vs the Buck at 1.0880 from sub-1.0800. Elsewhere, the Pound has also regrouped after depreciation on news of UK PM Johnson’s transfer to intensive care pushed Cable down to around 1.2165, but hit resistance into 1.2350 and is still below 0.8800 in Euro cross terms.
  • CHF/CAD/JPY – The Franc is back near up the top of a 0.9725-95 or so range after SNB reserves data showing a fall in stark contrast to weekly Swiss sight deposits supporting the notion that intervention has picked up markedly of late, with little reaction to rises in jobless rates that are likely to pale in comparison to increases in unemployment to come. Similarly, the Loonie has pared post-BoC business outlook survey losses with the aid of buoyancy in oil to retest 1.4000 ahead of Canada’s Ivey PMI and awaiting the nation’s contribution to the joint crude output cut, assuming there is consensus. Meanwhile, the Yen has also profited at the Greenback’s expense, though to a lesser extent as a renowned safe-haven and with Japan confirming 7 prefectures in an official state of emergency, including Tokyo. Usd/Jpy is currently pivoting 109.00, but from a chart perspective still on an upward trajectory while above the 200 DMA (108.34) and not likely to stir hefty option expiry interest from 108.00 to 108.50 rolling off on Wednesday unless things change quite dramatically in the next 24 hours of course.
  • EM – Widespread rebounds vs the Dollar, and with the Rand unwinding more of its significant underperformance through 18.3000 vs 19.3500 at the other extreme due to consolidation and short covering more than anything fundamental, aside from the broad improvement in risk sentiment.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have resumed their rise in the run-up to a “make or break” OPEC+ meeting, with members outside the group urged to join in on a potential coordinated move. In terms of where we stand, the OPEC+ meeting is due to take place at on Thursday at 1500BST, with a presser to follow (all times tentative) – OPEC+ press conferences tend to be delayed. Reports also noted that G20 ministers to convene an extraordinary meeting on Friday at 1300BST, to discuss the energy market turmoil, according to reports. Energy Intel notes of a meeting on Friday in which members outside OPEC+ will be asked pledge additional reductions, “over and above 10mln BPD”. OPEC sources stated that OPEC+ group is reportedly likely to agree to oil production cuts on Thursday although it is contingent upon the US joining in with the production cuts, according to three OPEC+ sources. That said, earlier reports intimated OPEC+ still can’t reach a preliminary consensus on individual volumes of oil production cuts, particularly the largest producers, according to three delegations cited by TASS. As a reminder, under one of the touted OPEC+ scenarios: 10mln BPD cuts will include North America; Saudi would cut a minimum of 3mln BPD; Russia 1.5mln BPD; US, Canada, and Brazil almost 2mln BPD (Texas at least 500k BPD) according to sources cited by WSJ’s Summer Said. Furthermore, today will see the release of the first monthly oil report, the EIA STEO, which will depict a clear impact of the coronavirus outbreak – thus eyes will be on the magnitude of further demand downgrades and revisions lower to US crude output as a function of lower oil prices. That being said, the release may be overshadowed by the tentative OPEC+ congregation later in the week, which will shift the dynamic in the oil market. In terms of data, the weekly API releases at the usual time, with forecasts for a headline build of around 9mln barrels over the last week. WTI May’20 hovers around USD 27/bbl (vs. low of USD 26.29/bbl, and high USD 27.19), whilst its Brent counterpart re-eyes USD 34/bbl to the upside having briefly breached the level during late APAC trade. Elsewhere, spot gold fails to benefit from the weaker Buck, as the rise in equities proves the yellow metal to be less attractive, with prices back below 1650/oz after rising to a whisker away from 1680/oz in the overnight session. Meanwhile, copper prices continue to mimic the rise in stocks, with the red metal piggybacking overall risk appetite and breaking out of its recent range (USD 2-2.25lb), with red metal prices around USD 2.3/lb at the time of writing.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, prior 104.5
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,500, prior 6,963
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $14.0b, prior $12.0b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It seems odd to be discussing how the global virus trend numbers continue to get better whilst the PM of your country is moved into intensive care trying to battle it. However that’s where we stand at the moment. The latest percentage growth in new cases and fatalities have slowed notably in recent days even in the US and U.K. which are at the rear in terms of Western World progress through the virus. If the U.K. numbers just stabilise today that will be a big deal as over the last three weeks Tuesday’s numbers have been notably higher as the weekend data gets properly absorbed. See today’s Corona Crisis Daily for full evidence of the recent trends including new case growth in Italy and Spain both dropping below 3%.

Staying with Italy our equity strategist Binky Chadha has produced a chart that shows the correlation between the S&P 500 and Italian new case numbers over the last few weeks is very high. We’ve recreated it in the pdf of this report today for those interested. The correlation clearly can’t go on indefinitely but given Italy is the leader of the West in terms of development of the virus then it makes sense why markets have been linked to it. Indeed the S&P 500’s +7.03% surge yesterday was testament to that.

More on markets later but the hottest topic around the world continues to be the exit strategy. The slowing new case and fatality growth rates are broadly in line with the potential reopening dates flagged in our “The Exit Strategy” note link here we published last week. However as we discussed yesterday in the EMR it’s still unclear how the West will reopen their economies, what % of the economy will be functioning as we enter Q3 (and beyond), and how we can avoid rolling lockdowns as new cases re-emerge as economies come back to life. So the data is looking better but the return to normal strategy still needs a lot of work.

On this Austria took a lead yesterday as Chancellor Kurz said that small stores would be allowed to reopen from April 14, before other stores could open in May, with restaurants and hotels following in mid-May. Note that they’ve had new case growth slow to a crawl in recent days so are in a position to start to think about this. Another country that seems to be inching towards an exit strategy is Denmark, where they announced yesterday that kindergartens and primary schools would re-open April 15th, dependent on where numbers and citizen behaviour goes from here. In the U.K. a report from academic body CAGE from Warwick University (link here – note I’m a supervisory board member of the group but have no input into their work) suggested that 20-29 years olds that don’t live with their parents should be allowed back to work in the U.K. citing the Imperial College stats that suggest a covid-19 fatality rate of 0.03% and a critical-care rate of 0.06% amongst this group. So clearly as case and fatality rates continue to slow these conversations are going to get more and more frequent.

That said, Merkel said it was too soon for Germany to set a date for easing restrictions, and concerns remain given events in Japan and other areas (e.g. Singapore) that an easing of restrictions could just lead to another wave of infections. So while the slowing of new cases and fatalities is a big positive, the exit strategy is still clouded in great uncertainty.

Today, the main highlight will be the Eurogroup meeting of Euro Area finance ministers taking place via video conference this afternoon, the follow-up to the European Council meeting on 26 March when no solution was reached. DB’s Chief European economist, Mark Wall, published a blog yesterday (link here) where he writes that press reports suggest the debate has narrowed in on a three part package. As we mentioned yesterday, that would include a healthcare funding plan from the ESM worth up to EUR200bn, which would see conditionality tied to healthcare alone and not economic policy, which would be more politically costly. The second element would be the EIB offering re-insurance of credit guarantees, either taking a fixed proportion of these guarantees or a first-loss piece. The third element relates to the labour market, with a new EU-wide partial unemployment scheme based on Germany’s Kurzarbeit. Given it could potentially be as much as 4.5% of GDP, that’s a meaningful size, and would bypass the need for a new EU institution to issue “coronabonds”. However, as Mark says this should only be seen as a necessary first step, and the probability of needing to follow up with further demand stimulus is rising.

Onto financial markets, risk had a bumper day with the S&P 500 up +7.03% and the STOXX 600 up +3.73% with markets liking the slowing of the virus spread and death rates around the world. Volatility also continued to decline, with the VIX index down -1.6pts to 45.2pts, its lowest level in a month. Only 12 stocks in the S&P 500 were down on the day, and it was mostly consumer goods and biotech stocks that have actually outperformed over the last month. However, energy stocks relatively underperformed on both sides of the Atlantic against a backdrop of declines in oil prices after a week which saw the commodity rally over +30%. Brent crude was down by -3.11% and WTI by -7.97% ahead of an emergency meeting of G20 oil ministers planned for Good Friday. OPEC+ is also expected to meet on Monday now, with invitations being sent to countries normally not in attendance like Brazil and Norway.

Overnight, Bloomberg has also reported that the US Congress’s next stimulus bill would be at least another $1tn. The report highlights that stimulus would be focused on replenishing funds for programs established in Congress’s $2.2tn virus relief bill signed into law last month while there will also be additional direct payments to individuals, extended unemployment insurance, more resources for food stamps and more funds for the Payroll Protection Plan that provides loans to small businesses (per lawmakers on the call). Futures on the S&P 500 are trading down -0.62% nevertheless.

As for markets in Asia, the Nikkei (+0.21%), Hang Seng (+0.26%) and Kospi (+0.49%) all up but have pared bigger gains made earlier in the session. The Shanghai Comp (+1.74%) is leading as markets reopened in China post a holiday. In currencies, the US dollar index is trading down -0.13% this morning while in bond markets yields on 10y USTs are up c. 1bps to 0.682%. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude oil prices are trading up +2.99% and +2.63% respectively this morning.

In other news, Bloomberg is reporting that the IMF is preparing to offer short-term dollar loans to countries that lack enough Treasuries to participate in a Fed program that enables foreign central banks to temporarily exchange US debt for dollars. The report added that the initiative has the support of the US Treasury and may be launched within weeks. Elsewhere, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe will unveil details of a record stimulus package worth close to $1tn later today – roughly 20% of GDP. The size of the stimulus is around double of what was being reported earlier however that may include some of December’s supplementary budget.

Back to yesterday and with investors moving out of safe havens and into risk assets, core sovereign bonds lost ground yesterday, and yields on 10yr Treasuries ended the session up +7.5bps, while those on 10yr bunds were up +1.6bps. Conversely, peripheral European debt outperformed, with the spread of Italian and Spanish yields over bunds falling by -7.7bps and -3.5bps respectively. There was a similar theme over in FX as well, with the weakest performing G10 currency being the safe-haven Japanese Yen, weakening by -0.61% against the dollar. Given what happened to other safe assets, gold was something of an outlier yesterday, rising +2.48% in its 4th successive move higher, and meaning the precious metal now needs just over a 1% increase to climb above its 7-year closing high of $1680/oz seen last month. With equity’s rallying HY cash spreads tighten on both sides on the Atlantic, with US HY cash 17bps tighter and Europe HY 10bps tighter.

Economic data out yesterday continued to show the massive impact the coronavirus was having on the global economy. If you’re interested in hearing more about the overall impact, we’ve launched another of our podcast series, Podzept, with our Global Head of Economic Research, Peter Hooper, where he discusses the impact the virus is having on the global economy. See here for how to access.

In terms of that data, new car registrations in the UK in March fell by -44.4% year-on-year, a massive decline from the -2.9% in February. This decline is in fact bigger than the -36.8% fall in November 2008 at the height of the financial crisis. The country’s construction PMI didn’t show much optimism either, falling to 39.3 in March (vs. 44.0 expected), its lowest level since April 2009. Over in Germany meanwhile, the construction PMI also fell to 42.0, a 7-year low. And while the February data is rather outdated by now, for completion German factory orders rose by +1.5% year-on-year (vs. -0.2% expected), their first year-on-year increase since May 2018.

To the day ahead now, and the highlight is expected to be the video conference of the Eurogroup later, who’ll be discussing the EU’s coronavirus response. Data out includes February releases on German industrial production, the French trade balance and Italian retail sales, while from the US, we’ll also get February’s JOLTS job openings.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 56.78 POINTS OR 2.05%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 504.17 POINTS OR 2.12%   /The Nikkei closed UP 504.17 POINTS OR 2.12%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0550 /Oil UP TO 26.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and 33.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0550 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0681 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/CHINESE DEBT TIME BOMB

A good read on China’s massive debt accumulation

(Huang/South China Morning post)

COVID-19 Has Lit The Fuse On China’s Economic-Debt Time-Bomb

Authored by Cary Huang, op-ed via The South China Morning Post,

Beijing has a tough choice to make: tolerate an unprecedented hit to the economy or go for massive stimulus and risk explosive consequences...It should beware, a financial virus can be every bit as toxic as a biological one

The coronavirus outbreak has already taken a great toll on the Chinese economy, with all headline readings pointing towards a record slowdown in growth during the first two months of the year.But there is an even greater danger for what was once the world’s fastest-growing major economy: that Covid-19 will become the catalyst that will bring its many long-simmering problems to the boil. At the centre of these problems is a rising systemic risk in its banking and financial systems caused by a high level of debt accrued over the past decade.

The outbreak could not have occurred at a worse time. The past 10 years have not only seen the economy saddled with this debt, but it has also involved a steady structural slowdown that last year saw the growth rate fall to 6.1 per cent, the lowest in decades. Now, just at the very time the country might consider spending more to prop up that growth rate, a raging pandemic means it will be making much less money than usual.

The latest data from the Chinese Ministry of Finance shows fiscal revenue plunged by 9.9 per cent in the January-February period, the steepest drop since 2009. Overall tax revenue fell 11.2 per cent, driven by a 19 per cent slump in value-added tax (VAT) revenue, the main source of fiscal income. These drops come just as the government has offered a handsome tax cut in response to the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the escalation of the pandemic in the rest of the world will only further weigh on China’s economic growth, corporate profits and personal income. In turn, this will inevitably drag down government revenue in months to come.

Coronavirus: March 2020, the month Covid-19 changed the world

Beijing’s proposed stimulus spending will only exacerbate China’s already-massive debt pile, which had reached 310 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of last year, according to the Institute of International Finance. Many economies that have experienced such levels of debt have gone on to suffer a financial crash or economic crisis. China now accounts for about 60 per cent of the US$72.5 trillion emerging market debt.

A deleveraging campaign had reduced Beijing’s debt mountain in 2018. But it has since returned to credit-driven stimulus to support growth and combat the effects of its  trade war with the United States.

About 80 per cent of China’s debt stock was accumulated over the past decade as the country strived to achieve the politically significant milestone of doubling its economic size from 2010 to 2020. The milestone was a key goal in President  Xi Jinping’s Chinese dream of “national rejuvenation”.

While the coronavirus threat has receded in China itself, any hope of an early recovery is forlorn as Covid-19 is still ripping through the major developed economies – essentially, China’s customers and  trade partners. Plunging demand from abroad will create a second shock wave that will hit China’s export-oriented economy just as it is recovering from the first shock of having to lock down its cities.

China’s balance sheet will be hit by both dwindling revenue and a spiralling demand for spending. Rising corporate debt, surging local government borrowings, and soaring non-performing loans for commercial banks are three areas that could wreck its fragile financial and banking systems. The non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio jumped from 93 per cent in 2009 to 153 per cent last year, one of the highest in the world. The Institute of International Finance warned that China was the major driver of global non-financial corporate debt. China’s bond defaults also hit records in 2018 and 2019.

Coronavirus could cause global food shortages by April as export curbs worsen supply chain problems

Meanwhile, China’s local government debts will jump as a result of more infrastructure-driven stimulus. This will add to a debt pile already worth up to 40 trillion yuan – about 40 per cent of the country’s 100-trillion-yuan GDP last yearS&P Global Ratings has singled out local government financing vehicles as being chiefly responsible for the accumulation of hidden debt. At issue is that while local governments want to spend more, their income from land sales, the main source of local fiscal revenue, is decreasing. The Ministry of Finance said revenue from land sales, which are off-budget, fell by 16.4 per cent in the first two months of the year.

China’s commercial banks also face a severe test as bad debts are likely to riseEven before the outbreak, China’s banking system was a ticking time bomb, with the state having to step in to rescue a string of embattled medium-sized lenders. A Financial Stability Report released by the People’s Bank of China at the end of last year described 586 of the country’s almost 4,400 lenders as “high risk”. Data from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission shows there has been a steady rise in the non-performing loan balances of commercial banks since the middle of last year, a result of Beijing scaling back its deleveraging campaign.

China’s policymakers face a difficult choice: tolerate an unprecedented slowdown or go for massive stimulus and risk detonating a financial time bomb.

China’s economic planners have a habit of relying on massive levels of debt-financed stimulus whenever growth slows. The closed nature of its financial system affords policymakers the luxury of complacency, as they have a war chest of US$3.1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.

Some China-made coronavirus test kits and face masks rejected as ‘unreliable’ in European countries

All the signals suggest this is what they will do once more, despite the risk. Leaks suggest Beijing has amended its 2020 budget to raise the deficit to 3.5 per cent of GDP from an original cap of 3 per cent to fund this massive stimulus. Analysts say the actual fiscal deficits could jump much higher than last year’s 4.9 per cent, which included off-budget sheet borrowing and spending. Indeed, a meeting of the politburo, China’s top decision-making body, on March 27 suggested scaling up the stimulus package, with calls to raise the fiscal deficit ratio, increase issuance of Special Treasury bonds, and raise the quota of local government special bond issuance. Policymakers have also directed commercial banks to tolerate a higher threshold for bad loans, hoping to keep thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises from collapsing. The government has already sped up the issuance of bonds. The issuance of special-purpose bonds almost tripled to 950 billion yuan in the first two months of 2020, compared with last year.

It is to be expected that China’s debt will rise substantively in coming months, as in all previous crises. However, Beijing should beware that this time its fiscal measures will be limited. They will help only the country’s internal issue of supply and do nothing for external demand. China should exercise extreme caution: a financial virus can be as toxic, contagious and lethal as a biological one if it is allowed to spread.

*  *  *

Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist, 

end

CHINA/USA WUHAN INSTITUTE

Trump is doing the right thing by trying to work with Wuhan and find out how the virus jumped.  Trump wants to find out who patient zero is.  We posted her name on Saturday (Yang)

zerohedge_

Trump Admin Wants To ‘Work Directly’ With Wuhan Institute Of Virology

Surprisingly, even CNN has much-belatedly and very unexpectedly started posing critical questions centered on the Wuhan Institute of Virology while doing a review of various theories as to COVID-19’s origins. CNN on Monday cited that “one expert, a chemical biology professor and bioweapons expert at Rutgers University, has suggested to several media outlets that the lab-accident theory has credence.”

“The possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident cannot and should not be dismissed,” Dr. Richard Ebright told CNN in an email Sunday. This comes more than two months after the mainstream media went ballistic over our posing the same questions. In late January we had asked whether a prolific Chinese scientist who was experimenting with bat coronavirus at a level-4 biolab in Wuhan China was responsible for the current outbreak of a virus which is 96% genetically identical – and which saw an explosion in cases at a wet market located just down the street.

And now this via Reuters Tuesday“A senior Trump administration official urged China on Tuesday to allow the United States to work directly with laboratories in Wuhan on research into the novel coronavirus, saying this was critical to saving lives globally.” 

 

Wuhan Institute of Virology, via Pharma Industry Review

“We would appreciate the opportunity to work directly with their Virology labs in Wuhan to share whatever research they have,” the Trump admin official said.

The unnamed administration official explained:

“Since the pandemic originated in Wuhan, we think cooperation with PRC medical and disease experts there is critical to saving lives globally.”

Well yes, it’s about time there’s some official movement centered on the very place most likely to hold the keys to the mystery of both COVID-19’s origins and how to combat it and/or prevent it.

The admin statement is specifically in response to an apparent fast thawing of tensions between Beijing and Washington on the outbreak, after a month-long war of words trading accusations over its handling. China’s ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai, said in a NYT op-ed Sunday that despite recent “unpleasant talk” between the two centered on the pandemic, it’s now time for “solidarity, collaboration and mutual support.”

 

Scientists inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, China. AFP via Getty

In a rare belated moment, the senior Trump administration official zeroed in on the Wuhan Institute of Virology Biosafety Level 4 Laboratory, the county’s top lab dedicated to the research of severe infectious diseases, which again happens to be located a mere miles from the Wuhan wet market which witnessed the first cases:

“If Ambassador Cui is saying that China is willing to cooperate with the U.S., we would appreciate the opportunity to work directly with their Virology labs in Wuhan to share whatever research they have, since they’ve known about it and have been fighting it for at least a month longer than our scientists here in the U.S.,” the official said.

It also just so happens that Wuhan at the start of this week lifted its lockdown after infections have dramatically declined to near zero new infections per day.

It must be remembered that starting in February the director of the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), Kelvin Droegemeier, requested in a letter to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, that scientific experts “rapidly” look into the origins of the deadly COVID-19 outbreak.

The White House letter said this remained crucial “to inform future outbreak preparation and better understand animal/human and environmental transmission aspects of coronaviruses.”

Beijing’s response to this latest initiative to open up the Wuhan lab for cooperation with US scientists investigating the origins of the virus is sure to be interesting. And a potential lack of response altogether, a likely prospect, will also be telling.

 

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE/USA/THE GLOBE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

US Outbreak Worsens, European Numbers Continue To Fall, As Global COVID-19 Infections Near 1.5 Million: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Russia reports another concerning jump in cases
  • Downing Street offers update on Johnson’s condition
  • Abe kicks off Japan’s 1-month state of emergency
  • Spain reports jump in deaths following drop over the weekend
  • US cases accelerate faster than Europe’s
  • 12 NYPD officers have died of COVID-19
  • India closes hospitals after cases confirmed
  • China reports no daily deaths for first time
  • German health ministry unveils app to help track COVID-19 patients
  • France prepares to ban jogging as lockdown tightens

*    *    *

Just as we suspected as we watched futures surge out of the gate on Sunday evening, the drop in New York’s reported deaths that filled investors (not to mentioned President Trump) with hope that a week which Surgeon General Jerry Adams had said would be like ‘Pearl Harbor, but across the entire country’ might not be all that devastating.

Unfortunately, those numbers now appear to have simply a blimp, based on a quirk in data collection and presentation, as one medical researcher pointed out yesterday.

Even after New York reported a promising three-day streak of declines in hospitalizations and intubations related to COVID019, across the US, the outbreak worsened on Monday as more cases were reported in the US than all of Europe. Overall, there were 73,135 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, bringing the global total to roughly 1.35 million as of Tuesday morning. Deaths rose slightly as well on Monday, as 5,227 people lost their lives around the world, bringing the ‘official’ death toll to 74,799. After Sunday’s drop in new cases, the US once again reported more than 30,000 new cases on Monday, with New York State being the hardest hit, adding nearly 9,000 cases and 600 fatalities. 10 other states reported a daily jump of more than 1k cases. While Europe is finally seeing signs that its lockdowns are working, for the US, with roughly a dozen states still with no mandatory stay at home order in place, it’s still too early, according to the FT.

That said, some European states are doing better than others. Spain, which reported a drop in deaths over the weekend, saw them bounce back early Tuesday, reporting 743 deaths for Monday, bringing its total to nearly 14k.

After Germany leaked plans that call for the economy to start reopening later this month, and Austria announced that some shops could reopen as early as next week, the French government is apparently preparing to ban outdoor jogging.

Peter Allen@peterallenparis

All physical exercise – running, walking – will be banned in Paris between 10am and 7pm from tomorrow (Wed April 8) as part of ever stricter Coronavirus lockdown, by order Paris Police Prefecture & city council…Aim is to keep crowds down. What about pre-10am & post-7pm crowds?

While US testing has improved remarkably since the failings of early last month, former FDA head Scott Gottlieb, a prominent public expert who has been widely quoted in the press since the outbreak began, warned on Tuesday that Texas and Georgia are still notably under-testing, which needs to be corrected.

Squawk Box

@SquawkCNBC

Texas and Georgia are not testing enough, says @ScottGottliebMD on . “When you see a lot of hospitalizations but not a lot of people testing positive in a state it is an indication that they are under testing and both those states are in that bucket.”

Embedded video

As New York struggles, CNN reported that 12 NYPD officers have died from COVID-19, roughly half the number of NYPD officers who died on 9/11.

Crossing another major milestone off its list, China’s NHC reported a drop in new cases Tuesday morning to 32 from 39 the day before (all of which were travel-related, it said), along with zero new deaths for the first time since Beijing began releasing daily updates in late January. Total case and death toll reported for China have risen to 81,740 and 3,331, respectively, as of April 6.

A BBC correspondent working on the Mainland pointed out that while this milestone is being widely reported in the European press, in China, the state-backed media seem to not be playing it up. Is that because there’s an implicit understanding at this point that the public knows Beijing is lying about the daily numbers, and really doesn’t care? Who knows, but at this point, the total case and death totals reported out of China don’t really matter any more. And the fact remains that, even as Beijing embraces targeted lockdowns in some areas, the overall trend shows China is mostly in the clear – even as the virus will likely persist on some level.

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

has officially reported zero new deaths today! A thread…

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

has reported zero new deaths today! It’s the first time since the 21st of January when the National Health Commission started publishing daily figures (Official figures usual caveats). It doesn’t matter whether or not I “believe” the number because…

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

While a “milestone” day with zero official deaths, the most important thing in is the trend. There’s a mountain of evidence to show that the trend in is real. Doesn’t matter if overall infections are 10 x the official figure, the curve is what matters.

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

Would ‘s Communist Party elite allow thousands of people to travel from (the origin of the outbreak and worst hit province) to where they live in the Chinese capital if they didn’t think it was safe?

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

I don’t know a single person in (I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody in ) who’s contracted the . I hardly know anybody in and but I do know people in both those cities with .

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

Interestingly, ’s Communist Party controlled media is not reporting the first 24-hours without fatalities with any great fanfare. The subject isn’t even a key trending subject on Chinese social media platforms.

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

It was the same when we had the first day with no new home-grown infections. It was buried in ‘s Communist Party media. If you weren’t paying very close attention to the evening 7pm TV news you would’ve missed it. We’ll see tonight re zero deaths.

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

This either means ‘s media outlets know all too well that there are flaws in the accounting here or, more likely, that the Party knows there are flaws in its accounting so it’s ordered a cautious presentation of zero deaths in its media.

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

This also comes with , the city where the global crisis first started – about to open again to the outside world in coming hours.

Take from that what you will.

The government in New Delhi has embraced an increasingly paranoid approach to the outbreak in recent weeks, prompting PM Modi to declare a three-week lockdown that gave India’s 1.3 billion residents with just hours to prepare, leaving many of the country’s poor in the lurch. But as they struggle to prevent outbreaks in some of the country’s most densely packed slums, BBC reports that three hospitals in two of India’s largest cities – the capital, Delhi, and Mumbai – have been shut after staff tested positive. No one is allowed to enter or leave, and staff will only be allowed to return home once they’ve tested negative. In Wockhardt Hospital in Mumbai, more than 50 staff members have tested positive. And in Jaslok Hospital, a well-known private hospital in the city, more than 10 nurses tested positive on Monday.

Further north, more worrying news emerged out of Moscow Tuesday morning, as Russia’s COVID-19 task force reported 1,154 new coronavirus cases, the largest daily jump yet and the first time the Russian daily total has topped 1k, while another 11 deaths brought the country’s total to 58. Russia’s total of 7,497 cases of Covid-19 is fewer than other major European countries, but the virus has continued to steadily accelerate even after the Kremlin extended Russia’s country-wide “holiday” (a strict lockdown) until the end of April.

From Beijing, to Singapore, to Silicon Valley, the coronavirus has given governments an excuse to test out new surveillance tactics in the name of ‘contact tracing’ and outbreak suppression. Now, Germany is getting in on the action by promoting a health tracking app released by Germany’s federal health agency that can alert health officials to possible signs of COVID-19.

Per the FT:

Germany’s federal health agency has unveiled a coronavirus-tracking app that links to fitness bands and smartwatches, which it says will help map the spread of Covid-19 by monitoring anonymised data for tell-tale signs of infection. The app asks for permission to access users’ approximate location, and data including resting pulse, sleep and activity levels, which tend to change significantly in the case of acute respiratory diseases. The Robert Koch Institute developed the app in conjunction with Thryve, a Berlin start-up. “If the number of symptomatic patients can be recorded in a sufficiently large sample, this could help us to draw conclusions earlier on the occurrence of infection, distribution and also the effectiveness of the measures taken,” said Professor Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute.

Since the early weeks of the epidemic, the general peer-reviewed medical journal “The Lancet” has become widely known outside of the usual medical circles as a source of the latest research on the novel coronavirus. A study published this week in the magazine found that school closures have a limited impact on the spread of coronavirus and should be more rigorously weighed against their serious economic impact, according to a study by researchers at University College London. Data from 16 studies on the Sars outbreak and other coronaviruses in mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic, concluded the researchers in a paper published in The Lancet on Tuesday.

The Iranian military – which is a wholly separate entity from the IRGC – has cancelled a military parade that had been scheduled for later this month, saying it will instead push the soldiers to help with the outbreak.

Also: After announcing plans to declare a month-long ‘state of emergency’ in 7 provinces (including Tokyo), Japanese PM Abe did just that when he officially announced the plan on Tuesday morning, a move that had been widely telegraphed in advance. Though Japan’s constitution doesn’t allow the government to hand out punishments for violators, it has asked non-essential businesses and schools to close, while ‘essential’ businesses like banks and grocers to remain open. His government has also announced plans for a stimulus package worth nearly $1 trillion.

Finally, last night, Downing Street shocked the world when it announced that UK PM Boris Johnson had been moved to the ICU “as a precaution” after experiencing some heightened difficulty breathing. After doctors started to speculate that he would very likely be placed on a ventilator, the government decided to re-examine its decision not to provide complete transparency to the press, and instead leaked a report to the London Times offering more details about Johnson’s condition with one critical admission: Doctor’s said Johnson wasn’t in bad enough shape to warrant being admitted to the ICU under normal circumstances, but given the novelty of the virus, and Johnson’s importance, he was moved as a precaution.

Meanwhile, ministers are demanding to know more about the government’s contingency planning as for who will be responsible for critical national security duties, including the handling of the UK’s nuclear deterrent. So far, Dominic Raab, Johnson’s foreign secretary, has been deputized to step up if Johnson becomes incapacitated.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

The global economic situation explained beautifully by Bill Blain..

(courtesy Bill Blain)

Not Even The End Of The Beginning…

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“I bet it was Carole Baskin that gave the Tigers C-19!”

As predicted, yesterday’s vague indications the numbers are improving turned into a spectacular rally as markets’ high-fived themselves, anticipating imminent victory against the Coronavirus. Markets appear to be way too excited. 

Maybe markets know something governments don’t – at what point do we actually win? If you think the Market Rally means economies are going to open tickety-boo and dandy over the next few days… you really need to change your dealer.

Nope.. What Markets know is that Global Central banks are going to do whatever it takes… to keep markets high… The reality gap between financial assets and the real word grows ever wider…

Meanwhile…

I doubt Downing Street is going to be terribly happy with an interview the UK’s celebrity epidemiologist Neil Ferguson gave to the FT: “We don’t have a clear exit strategy”. 

Published this morning, it’s a long and rambling piece that traces the decision making that’s got us thus far in the UK. It concludes the future will involve los of testing and ramping up contact tracing, highlights the risks of second waves of infection, and designing “an optimal strategy which keeps the NHS functioning, allows more economic and social activity… and gets us through the next 18 months.” He added: “We don’t have a clear exit strategy at the moment.”

The reality this morning is Markets have declared Victory. Government hasn’t decided what victory conditions are. The problem is how do we make sure we don’t win this first battle, but go one to lose the war if subsequent waves of C-19 overwhelm the medical services, and break the will of the people to resist. This is not over yet.

It’s like a scene from a Godzilla movie where the crowds think the monster has been slain as its body sinks into the Ocean deeps. As we walk away, there is a bubbling noise behind us.. We turn, and the Monster springs up; stronger, angrier and more devasting than before…

The bottom line for markets is the global economy is not suddenly going to reopen as if nothing happened. In coming months, there may be less tight social distancing, but it’s not over yet. The ongoing damage to the global economy is not short-term. It will be long-term, but it will be mitigated as we adapt. Get used to it.

The good news is society will adapt as wider testing, phone-based contract-tracing, new drug treatments, innovation of new breathing and kidney machines, and a host of other adaptations come into play. Things will get better – just not overnight.

While we adapt, we will just have to cope with all the disruption coming our way, caused by massive unemployment, the risks of policy deliverables, shuttered business sectors, failing systems in the EM markets, potential sovereign debt defaults, global protectionism, a new cold-war with China, and whatever else the Gods of Chaos throw our way….

Credit Markets

In bonds there is truth.

The truth about bonds is the Fed and the ECB have done a bang-up job keeping the bond markets open. The QE Infinity programmes announced over the last few weeks have sustained bond markets as a funding conduit for corporates. Buyers are willing to fund just about anything on the basis central banks are there as buyers. (Note: I don’t say as buyer of last resort… but effectively that’s what they are.)

There are even calls for the Central Banks to extend their programmes into the $1.6 trillion Junk debt to avoid massive hi-yield defaults that could trigger mass unemployment, supply chain disruptions, and further weakness. With so much of the $3 trillion BBB credits market vulnerable to downgrade into fallen angel junk, it may become critical.) If the Fed buys junk, why not the $1.3 trillion junk leverage loan market?

Let’s not waste time talking about Moral Hazard here, or how issuers were able to cut covenant protections to the bone… The immediate imperative for Central Banks is to keep the economy functional – by supporting dysfunctional debt! Oh..! The consequences, the consequences…  

But with the great power the Central Banks are exercising over bond markets, must come responsibility in terms of dividends to private equity owners, stock buybacks, executive bonuses, and a host of other management functions. Who is going to make the call? Nationalise every aspect of capitalism and markets? That’s where its heading!

If the Central Banks owns the corporate bond market and set rates through the government markets, then effectively they set equity prices on a relative yield basis. (If bonds yield nothing, then investors will move to stocks…)

At the moment the smart move is to follow the Fed and buy corporate debt on the basis we face years longer of ultralow rates, corporate bond yields will tighten and therefore outperform. We’ve seen spectacular deals done to raise cash for corporates that expect to be shuttered for months, if not years. The $6.25 bln deal for Carnival Cruises – secured on $28 bln of cruise ships, is a good example. What’s not to like about a 11.5% Coupon for a then-still investment grade corporate?  (Except.. what will cruise ships be worth if we don’t win soon?)

We are seeing the same thing happen in other sectors, but there is a high degree of “ignoring the facts” going on. For instance, we’ve got airlines looking to fund, but pushing for deals at levels close to what they got pre-crisis. C’mon… the airline business is shuttered for potentially months or even years. There will be overcapacity and a shakeout coming. That is real risk – and real risk has to be priced as real risk.. not bin’n’comp!

It’s the difference between the make-believe prices in distorted financial assets and the reality of the real economy!

END
WHO/CHINA/USA
We have certainly highlighted to you, the kowtowing of the WHO to the wishes of China.  Now the USA is furious and will no doubt take a “good look” at future funding for them
(zerohedge)

Trump Slams WHO For Kowtowing To Beijing, Hints US Will Take “A Good Look” At Funding

In what was by far his harshest criticism of the international agency to date, President Trump slammed the WHO in a tweet, accusing it of doing the bidding of China while taking the US’s money, and hinted that he would be giving American funding to the organization “a good look”, a statement that certainly won’t sit well with Trump’s critics, who will accuse the president of slashing funding to a vital public health institution in the middle of an unprecedented pandemic.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The W.H.O. really blew it. For some reason, funded largely by the United States, yet very China centric. We will be giving that a good look. Fortunately I rejected their advice on keeping our borders open to China early on. Why did they give us such a faulty recommendation?

Though the WHO has been helpful in providing tests around the world, the agency has faced plenty of criticism for appearing to kowtow to Beijing and parrot its lies and propaganda.

Beijing also provides a solid chunk of the WHO’s funding, as the chart below shows:

Trump boasted that he did the right thing and ignored the WHO’s advice when he imposed his China travel ban, and as studies have shown in recent weeks, that was perhaps the best decision his administration made during the response so far.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

ARGENTINA
Our perennial defaulters did it again: They have defaulted for the 9th time
(zero hedge)

There is a saying: three things in life are certain: death, taxes and another Argentina default.

In the annals of sovereign debt there is no country that has defaulted more times on its debt, than the country formerly known as the pearl of South America –  Argentina – which had defaulted exactly 8 times in just under 200 years. As of Monday, make that nine.

The first default came in 1827, just 11 years after independence; the most recent one was in 2014. In between, there were six others of varying size and form, according to Carmen Reinhart, a Harvard University economist. Almost all of them were preceded by boom periods as, perhaps most famously, when European migrants transformed Argentina into an agricultural powerhouse and one of the world’s wealthiest countries by the late 19th century. Invariably, however, profligate spending combined with easy access to capital supplied by overzealous foreign creditors, did the nation in.

Courtesy of Bloomberg here is a brief look back at each of Argentina’s eight defaults:

  • 1827: After declaring independence from Spain in 1816, Argentina’s economy quickly opened itself to foreign trade. Some historians would later refer to the early 1820s as the nation’s “happy experience,” a period of peace, prosperity and fascination with European aristocracy. That soon changed. Argentina had sold bonds in London to help finance its nationhood. That debt came under pressure when the Bank of England raised interest rates in 1825. Argentina defaulted two years later. It took another 30 years for the nation to resume payments on the debt.
  • 1890: In the late 19th century, Argentina went on a borrowing spree to build trains and transform Buenos Aires into the cosmopolitan capital it is today. London’s Barings Bank aggressively invested in the nation’s railroads and other utility projects. The south of Argentina boomed, too, as sheep farming spread across the Patagonian grasslands and gold prospectors rushed to Tierra del Fuego. That euphoria faded when the commodities bubble burst. The nation halted debt payments, spurring a run on Argentine banks and the resignation of President Miguel Juarez Celman. That November, Barings teetered near insolvency. Argentina emerged from default four years later, buoyed by fresh capital from the U.K.
  • 1951: An influx of immigrants and foreign capital fueled Argentina’s rise to one of the world’s most prosperous countries by the early 1900s. But World War I hit the nation’s economy hard, as did the Great Depression that followed a decade later. Unemployment and social unrest soared. In 1930, a coup brought the military into power, ushering in a period of political instability — eight presidents in two decades — and a policy of import substitution, which closed off the economy and helped trigger a default.
  • 1956: The populist strongman Juan Peron rose to power in 1946 and proceeded to nationalize companies, redistribute wealth and assert greater government control over the economy. The policies he and his wife, Evita, carried out would become Argentina’s dominant governing principle for roughly half of the next seven decades. Initially, they stoked growth and expanded the middle class. But in 1955, Peron was ousted in a coup, plunging the economy into turmoil and leaving the country struggling to keep up with debt payments. The next year, the military junta struck a deal with the Paris Club of creditor nations to avert a larger default.
  • 1982: During Argentina’s Dirty War, the military dictatorship borrowed, mainly from U.S. and British banks, to fund infrastructure projects and state industries. The nation’s foreign debt ballooned to $46 billion from $8 billion. Then commodity prices collapsed again when the Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Chairman Paul Volcker, raised U.S. interest rates to as high as 20% to tame inflation, spurring debt crises across Latin America and the rest of the developing world. Argentina became one of 27 nations, including 16 in Latin America, to reschedule its debt.
  • 1989: A series of failures in the late 1980s to curb inflation — which climbed over 3,000% — triggered another default in 1989 and brought Peronist leader Carlos Menem into power. His government reduced inflation, privatized state companies and lured foreign direct investment, steering the nation from recession to double-digit growth by Menem’s second full year in office. Still, Argentina’s foreign debt surged to more than $100 billion, the result of Menem’s inability to rein in spending. By the time he left, the nation had fallen into recession once more amid rising unemployment, constrained exports and an overvalued peso.
  • 2001: As the brutal recession entered its fourth year, wiping out about two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product, Argentines rioted around the rallying cry, “All of them must go!” The country had five presidents in two weeks, all while declaring what was at the time the largest default by a country in history. Payments were halted on $95 billion worth of bonds. That led to restructuring deals with creditors in 2005 and 2010 under Nestor Kirchner and his wife, Cristina Fernandez. Most bondholders agreed to take the 30 cents on the dollar offered, but a contingent led by hedge-fund billionaire Paul Singer held out and demanded full repayment.
  • 2014: Haunted by a legal drama with Singer and other holdout creditors, Argentina defaulted once again, albeit on a lesser scale. Fernandez’s administration missed an interest payment after a U.S. judge ruled that Argentina couldn’t distribute the funds unless Singer’s Elliott Management Corp. and other so-called “vulture funds” got paid on their defaulted debt. That dispute was finally resolved in 2016, when the new president, Mauricio Macri, paid the holdouts so Argentina could regain access to international debt markets.

And now, with the credit-friendly regime of “reformist” Mauricio Macri a distant memory, we can add default number 9 because according to a decree late on Sunday, the government announced that Argentina plans to postpone payments on up to $10 billion of dollar debt that was issued under Argentina-law – and is thus not bound to international default arbitration – until the end of the year in a bid to relieve pressure over looming foreign currency payments.

The government’s decree of necessity and urgency (DNU), does not affect the roughly $70 billion in foreign currency debt issued under international law that Argentina is currently in talks to restructure with creditors. Argentina’s government has previously said it is looking to restructure $83 billion in foreign currency debt under both international and local law as it looks to avert a sovereign default that would hit its access to global markets.

The move to delay payments on the local-law debt could give Argentina breathing room and may enable it more easily to make payments on foreign-law bonds. As the debt was issued under local law, any creditors wanting to take legal action would need to do so in local courts. And make no mistake: any change to the payment terns, or rather non-payment, is an instant event of default. The only question is which international creditors, which are better known in the country as “vultures”, are bold enough to sue Argentina in its own court system in demanding payment.

The default will hardly come as a surprise: President Alberto Fernandez and Economy Minister Martin Guzman have repeatedly said Argentina cannot pay its public debts until it is given time to revive an economy that has been mired in recession for the last two years. The current coronavirus crisis only pushed the decision to the fore.

Argentina’s major creditor, the International Monetary Fund, which sunk billions into the biggest failed IMF rescue loan in history that is now terminally impaired, has supported the country’s stance saying its debts are unsustainable. It also means that IMF member states will be forced to make the organization whole on its losses.

And with local-law debt done, next up is the default under foreign law. Guzman is expected to soon make a proposal to private creditors to restructure the country’s foreign law bonds, a process that has been hit by delays amid the global coronavirus pandemic that has led to a nationwide lockdown in Argentina.

END

AFRICA/coronavirus update

“All The Jobs Are Gone” – Africa Facing ‘Complete Economic Collapse’ As Virus Spreads

The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns across the African continent could trigger an economic collapse, according to one United Nations (UN) official, who spoke with Associated Press (AP).

Ahunna Eziakonwa, the UN Development Program regional director for Africa, warned that the pandemic would likely result in job losses for millions of people, many of whom are already low-income, have no savings, and have no access to proper healthcare.

“We’ve been through a lot on the continent. Ebola, yes, African governments took a hit, but we have not seen anything like this before,” Eziakonwa said. “The African labor market is driven by imports and exports and with the lockdown everywhere in the world, it means basically that the economy is frozen in place. And with that, of course, all the jobs are gone.”

We’ve warned over the last month that a virus crisis looms in Africa. A little more than half of the continent’s 54 countries have imposed lockdowns, curfews, and or travel bans to mitigate the spread of the virus.

Places like South Africa, where the military has enforced “unprecedented” Martial law-style lockdowns through mid-April, is an attempt to thwart social uprisings as 370,000 jobs have likely been lost.

QuickTake by Bloomberg

@QuickTake

South Africa’s military has begun enforcing a lockdown, which includes bans on alcohol sales and even dog-walking.

Over 1,000 cases and 2 deaths have been confirmed

Embedded video

For the 1.3 billion that inhabit the continent, widespread lockdowns are triggering vicious economic downturns, couple that with a public health crisis, and it could be a perfect storm that results in social unrest.

Eziakonwa said unless the virus spread can be controlled – then up to 50% of all estimated growth for Africa’s travel, services, mining, agriculture and the informal sectors could be lost. An extended period of subpar economic growth could be seen across the continent in the quarters ahead.

“We will see a complete collapse of economies and livelihoods. Livelihoods will be wiped out in a way we have never seen before,” she warned.

Top oil-exporting countries, such as Nigeria and Angola, could lose up to $65 billion in revenue with collapsed commodity prices – indicating that those governments will struggle to balance budgets, the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) said.

Many countries in the Sub-Saharan region are heavily indebted and could come into severe financial distress with budget constraints in a downturn. That is why the calls for stimulus among some African leaders have already begun:

“Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has spoken of an “existential threat” to Africa’s economies while seeking up to $150 billion from G20 nations. A meeting of African finance ministers agreed that the continent needs a stimulus package of up to $100 billion, including a waiver of up to $44 billion in interest payments.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa backed the calls for a stimulus package, saying in a recent speech that the pandemic “will reverse the gains that many countries have made in recent years.” Several African nations have been among the fastest-growing in the world,” Ap notes. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last month that 20 African countries had requested financial assistance, with an expected ten more countries to need some form of aid. The IMF has already cleared credit facilities for Guinea and Senegal.

In the quarters ahead, socio-economic challenges will persist for Africa as the latest lockdowns due to the virus pandemic will contribute to negative economic outlooks for the region.

UNECA has said emergency stimulus programs are needed to protect 30 million jobs at risk of evaporating.

Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo recently said, “We do know what to do to bring the economy back to life. What we don’t know is how to bring back people to life.” He has created a virus fund that will distribute food and salaries to some citizens for three months.

In Kenya, President Uhuru Kenyatta has launched temporary tax relief programs for citizens and created a $94 million fund to protect low-income families.

Benin’s President Patrice Talon said the rich African countries are unleashing stimulus to boost their economies. He said for poor African countries, like his, they don’t have the financial capability to stimulate.

To sum up, Africa is being swallowed whole by a pandemic that has forced many countries to implement lockdowns to mitigate the spread, which has led to vicious economic downturns. Much of the continent will likely remain in financial distress this year as the global economy has ground to a halt.

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0866 DOWN .0069 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.09 DOWN 0.034 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2301   UP   0.0070  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4025 DOWN .0088 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 69 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0866 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 56.78 POINTS OR 2.05% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 504.17 POINTS OR 2.12%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 504.17 POINTS OR 2.12%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 56.78 POINTS OR 2.05%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 42% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 373.88  POINTS OR 2.01%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1655.60

silver:$15.17-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.75% !!! UP 7 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.34 UP 6  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 100.19 DOWN 50 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.93% UP 7 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.79%//UP 7 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,61 UP 12 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 82 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.32% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.93% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0887  UP     .0088 or 88 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.94 DOWN .185 OR YEN UP 19  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2329 UP .0102 POUND UP 102  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 117 basis points to 1.3997

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 67.0462    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0532  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  6.7631 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.75 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.34 UP 6 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.02 DOWN 67  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 122.06  2.19%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 281.53 POINTS OR 2.79%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 92.13 POINTS 2.12%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 157.70 POINTS or 2.30%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 372.41 POINTS OR 2.19%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 26.29 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 33.37 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    75.38  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.57 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 57 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.32 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  24.06//

 

 

BRENT :  31.97

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.73..plus 5 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.32..plus 3 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0897 ( UP 98   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.803 DOWN .325 (YEN UP 33 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.92 DOWN 76 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2345 UP 115  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.7753

 

 

the Russian rouble 75.48   UP 0.57 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 57 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3997 UP 116 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 26.13 POINTS OR 0.12%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 25.98 POINTS OR 0.33%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  46.86 CLOSED UP 1.62

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.302%//libor dropping a bit

libor ois//dropping a bit:  1.282

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bear-Market Bounce Breaks Despite “Global Money-Printing Orgy”

As stocks soared overnight and into the open this morning, pundits quickly appeared to proclaim the bear is dead and a new bull market had begun (as The Nasdaq completed a 50% retracement of the Feb-April drop)…

By the close, having tagged the 50% retracement of the plunge and dragged down by oil’s plunge, equity markets tumbled into the red…

At their best levels, Trannies and Small Caps were up over 4.5% this morning before giving it all back…

And VIX refused to play along with the excitement…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, as is obvious to many, this bear market bounce is thanks to what Michael Novogratz, who formerly led hedge fund Fortress Investment Group, calls a “global money-printing orgy that’s going on…money is growing on trees right now,” adding that he is long “hard assets” like gold and bitcoin because of this as “at one point that comes home to roost.”

Squawk Box

@SquawkCNBC

“Money is growing on trees right now. I learned when I was a little kid that money really doesn’t grow on trees. We have a global, money-printing orgy going on … at one point that comes home to roost,” says @novogratz on why he is buying hard assets like gold,

Embedded video

As Nomura quant Masanari Takada wrote this morning, the steep rally in global equities is nothing more than a giant “bear squeeze” rally, driven by panicked exits from shorts that investors accumulated during the downturn, something we pointed out yesterday when we showed that Monday’s action was the 2nd biggest marketwide short-squeeze in history.

Source: Bloomberg

And, as Bloomberg’s Michael Regan warns, regardless of when the economy officially “reopens”, it’s almost impossible to predict when consumers will be comfortable enough to crowd into restaurants, movie theaters, cruise ships, airliners, amusement parks, hotels and shopping malls with the same gusto they did before the virus.

Forget all that for a moment. Instead, as the equity market rips higher to leave the S&P 500 down less than 20% from its last record, just ponder the potential for this: A 50% drop in buybacks and a 25% decline in dividends in 2020(Those are Goldman’s forecasts, and due to the abundance of uncertainty, I’d view them as perhaps only slightly better than spitball estimates — but that’s about the best anyone can do at the moment. Would greater reductions be much of a surprise? We won’t even mention their estimates for a 33% decline in EPS.)

Hate to be the Eeyore on a beautiful spring day when the market is ripping higher. But just ask yourself: Is this bear market really over?

We suspect no…

Source: Bloomberg

And just in case you thought everything was awesome (because stocks were soaring), there is still some serious dollar shortages/liquidity issues as FRA-OIS spread spikes today…

Source: Bloomberg

And while the squeeze hit,, the dollar was weaker for the second day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Oh, and in case you thought oil was supporting things as OPEC+ was about to agree to some magical thinking deal… think again – WTI was clubbed like a baby seal today after a strong open, erasing the trump spike…

As Exxon slashed capex by 30% and projected a 25% demand drop…

Source: Bloomberg

Remember, you never “meddle with the money”…

Source: Bloomberg

Talking of “money” – gold dipped today after spiking overnight above $1740…

And cryptos stabilized, holding on to gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher (2Y +2bps, 10Y +6bps) for the second day…

Source: Bloomberg

…but we note there was a rally this afternoon after the auction and as oil slid into settlement…

Source: Bloomberg

HY bonds were sold this afternoon as IG held up…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed today with copper higher, PMs slightly lower and crude clubbed…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, Gold, notably seeing decoupling again between Spot and futures markets…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

S&P Futures Crater 40 Points In One Tick On Huge For Sell Closing Imbalance

It’s not just skyward that stocks can gap at 350pm when, 10 minutes before the close, the market on close imbalance is revealed.

Regular readers recall two weeks ago, when on Thursday March 26 amid the furious pension frontrunning frenzy, Eminis soared 40 points in one tick when it was revealed that there was a $7BN market on close imbalance.

Turns out easy come easy, go because moments ago, at that precisely timeslot of 350pm again, Eminis plunged 40 points in one tick – again – when today’s market on close was revealed, and this time it was a sizable and unexpected, in light of today’s market action, for sale imbalance amounting to over $2.4BN.

The result: this.

A 40 point move on a simple MOC announcement? That’s right, because that’s exactly how much “liquidity” there is in this market.

end

ii)Market data/USA

I guess this should be expected;  the small business index fell a huge 8.1 points, to 96.4, the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history

(zerohedge)

Small Business Optimism Crashes By Most Ever

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 8.1 points in March to 96.4, the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history and ending a historic run of 39-months of strong small business optimism above 100.

Nine of the 10 Index components declined, which is evidence that economic disruptions are escalating on Main Street as small businesses struggle to keep their doors open. The small business sector is anticipating and bracing for continued economic disruptions going forward.

“Small businesses are living through the coronavirus pandemic right now and it’s hard to say what the severity of the disruption will be, but we do know they’re feeling the urgency,” said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. “It is vital that these businesses have access to federal funds that are made available through the CARES Act to keep the doors open on Main Street.”

The financial markets saw substantial change in March, with the stock market indices losing 22% of their value and jobless claims rising to a record 10 million in the last two weeks of the month. The NFIB survey collected the majority of responses in the first half of the month, so the sharp decline in employment is not reflected in the March survey data. You can find NFIB’s split write-up here.

The main takeaways from the March survey include:

  • The NFIB Uncertainty Index rose 12 points in March to 92, the highest level since March 2017.
  • Reports of better business conditions in the next six months declined 17 points to a net 5%, which is the largest monthly decline since November 2012.
  • Real sales expectations in the next six months declined 31 points to a net negative 12%, the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history.
  • Thirteen percent of firms thought it was a good time to expand, a decline of 13 points from last month.
  • Job openings fell three points to 35%.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, the small business labor market reported strong hiring, elevated levels of open positions, and historically high employee compensation. However, hiring plans experienced a significant drop from February yet finding qualified workers remains the top issue for 24% of small employers who reported this as their No. 1 problem.

Down two points from February, 60% of owners reported capital outlays. Of those making expenditures, 43% reported spending on new equipment, 26% acquired vehicles, 16% improved or expanded facilities, 6% acquired new buildings or land for expansion, and 12% spend money for new fixtures and furniture. Twenty-one percent of owners are planning capital outlays in the next few months, a sign that small business owners are scaling back spending as economic conditions started to disrupt the nation.

Sales held strong in March, with a seasonally adjusted net 8% of all owners reporting higher nominal sales in the past three months. As actual sales volumes remained strong, expectations of the future of sales growth deteriorated significantly. It is clear owners felt the pending economic shift as state officials began to shut down non-essential businesses and issue stay-at-home orders in response to coronavirus.

A net negative three percent of owners are planning to expand inventory holdings. Small business owners are bracing themselves for a significant reduction in consumer spending and future orders.

The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell two points to a net negative 6% reporting quarter-on-quarter profits. Among the owners reporting weaker profits, 32% blamed weaker sales, 26% blamed usual seasonal change, 9% cited price changes, 7% cited labor costs, and 7% cited material costs. For those reporting higher profits, 53% credited sales volumes and 22% credited usual seasonal change.

NFIB released surveys in March on how COVID-19 is impacting small businesses. The latest survey showed 92% of small employers are negatively impacted by the outbreak and about half of small employers said they can survive for no more than two months under the current business conditions.

end
and for the above reason, Trump is asking for 200 billion small business stimulus: more helicopter money on the way!
(zerohedge)

US Treasury To Ask For $200 Billion More In Small Business Loans

Amid a surge in demand for the first tranche, the US Treasury is preparing to ask Congress for a further $200 billion for the small business lending program, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday.

This would increase the total size of the so-called Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to $550 billion.

As WaPo notes, Banks and the Small Business Administration have been overwhelmed by applications since the program began operating on Friday, leading President Trump, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) – who authored the program – and others to predict the need for more funds.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday said he would work with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.):

“Congress needs to act with speed and total focus to provide more money for this uncontroversial bipartisan program. I will work with Secretary Mnuchin and Leader Schumer and hope to approve further funding for the Paycheck Protection Program by unanimous consent or voice vote during the next scheduled Senate session on Thursday,” McConnell said in a statement.

The fact that Treasury would make the request on just the third day of the program’s existence underscores the surging demand for businesses to obtain financing as many of them struggle to avoid closing.

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The USA small business rescue loan platform crashes

(zerohedge)

 

Small Business Rescue Loan Platform Crashes As Firms Seek Virus Aid

Technical glitches plaguing the Small Business Administration’s rescue loan platform went from bad to worse on Monday, after computers running the system crashed – leaving borrowers and lenders in the lurch for hours.

According to Bloomberg, citing banking industry representatives and an administration official, the E-Tran system used to process loans for the new relief program was down for ‘some time’ on Monday before it was fixed.

The system has suffered from technical glitches since Friday’s roll-out, frustrating small business owners seeking emergency funds to keep things afloat.

We know that your efforts have been frustrated with system issues, policy questions and slower than usual responses,” said the SBA’s regional offices in a Saturday evening letter to bankers seen by Reuters.

Many lenders have had problems signing up for new user accounts with the SBA’s platform, while bankers who already had accounts have had issues unlocking them or resetting passwords, the email said. It said the SBA was working to unlock all of the existing user accounts in one batch.

SBA also alerted lenders in the email that its technology platform’s loan authorization form was “not at all” compliant with the terms of the rescue program.

Please do not close any loans using the current version of the loan authorization!” it said. –Reuters

The lending program was created as part of a $2.3 trillion stimulus package passed last month in which borrowers could apply from loans via participating banks starting last Friday. It will be open to borrowers until June 30.

Meanwhile, the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) complained to the SBA and Treasury on behalf of thousands of small banks regarding the “failed technology” and “massive delays” its members had encountered on the new platform.

Community bankers also took to social media to complain about the form changes and being locked out of the system, rebutting claims by President Donald Trump that all was going well.

“Going well?! Hell nearly every community bank in the nation is locked out of the … SBA platform!” Noah W. Wilcox, chief executive and chairman of Grand Rapids State Bank, who chairs the ICBA, tweeted on Sunday. –Reuters

On Monday, a senior trump administration official told Reuters that despite the difficulties experienced by some, the program had made progress.

“As of today – Day 4 – we’ve surpassed $35 billion originated; more than 100,000 small businesses have successfully applied and more than 2,000 lending institutions are up and running,” the said, adding “Starting today, the SBA is offering a lender hotline and our 68 district offices across the country will be available to assist lenders.”

That said, none of that helped people trying to apply for loans on Monday morning only to hit a brick wall of technical failure.

end
Pelosi tells her Democrat friends that the next stimulus will be at least one trillion dollars..Goldman Sachs predicts an explosion in issuance of USA debt
(zerohedge)

Pelosi Tells Democrats Next Stimulus To Be At Least $1 Trillion As Goldman Predicts Explosion In US Debt

The SBA and the Treasury have yet to figure out how to distribute the hundreds of billions small business funds from the recently passed $2.2 trillion Phase 3 coronavirus rescue aid, and the US government is already planning its next, Phase 4 fiscal stimulus.

Earlier this morning, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote that after Congress enacted three fiscal relief measures over the last few weeks –  which provide aid to unemployed workers and state governments, payments to individuals, and loans and tax benefits to businesses – “further fiscal support for the economy looks likely to be needed”, and Goldman’s fiscal forecast assumes that Congress “enacts at least one more fiscal package” because the measures enacted to date, “are not yet equal to the lost income due to COVID-19 that we expect.”

In further explaining the need for a new stimulus round, Goldman said that “Congress might need to provide further funding for small business loans (and the related loan forgiveness program to subsidize wage payments), unemployment benefits, and fiscal aid to state and local governments” which face a substantial near-term revenue hit, as well as some additional funding for aid to small businesses. Another round of payments to individuals is also a possibility. That said, in most cases Goldman “would expect that many of the “Phase 3” policies that Congress might renew or expand will not be as large the second time around.For example, while there might be additional funding for small business loans, we doubt that Congress would provide as much in “Phase 4” as the $350bn it enacted in “Phase 3.”

Altogether, Goldman expects this could add another $500bn (2.4% of GDP) to the deficit in the current fiscal year, and as much as $1.5 trillion (7%) more over the next couple of years.”

The total amount of fiscal relief that has been and will be passed, is summarized on the Goldman table below.

Perhaps more importantly, Goldman concludes that a new “Phase 4” fiscal stimulus round “is likely to face greater political friction than the recent legislation. Congress enacted the earlier measures on an emergency basis in a very short amount of time—by congressional standards—and without a full estimate of the likely fiscal costs.” As such the bank believes that future legislation “seems likely to take longer and we expect lawmakers to be somewhat more sensitive to further expanding the budget deficit.” That said, according to Goldman it is nevertheless very likely that Congress will pass additional fiscal measures; it would be politically unsustainable, in our view, for lawmakers to stay on the sidelines while the unemployment rate rises dramatically over the next few months.In terms of timing, since Congress will be on recess through late April, so enactment looks unlikely before May, at earliest.

And while few care about numbers, here is the bottom line: total fiscal stimulus will amount to an unprecedented 18% of GDP in 2020, and another 11% in 2021.

And, after all, why not? Now that the US is officially in helicopter money territory with the Fed monetizing whatever debt the Treasury will issue, trillions will soon become quadrillions.

And as if hearing Goldman, and its modest $500BN forecast for a Phase 4, on Monday House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Democrats on a private conference call that  the next stimulus bill will be at least another $1 trillion,

According to people on the call, the nextstimulus package – never mind getting the current package in the hands of Americans – would be to replenish funds for programs established in Congress’s $2.2 trillion virus relief bill. And echoing Goldman, Pelosi said there should be additional direct payments to individuals, extended unemployment insurance, more resources for food stamps and more funds for the Payroll Protection Plan that provides loans to small businesses.

As Bloomberg report, Pelosi also said the bill will assist state and local governments, with an emphasis on smaller municipalities with fewer than 500,000 residents, one lawmaker said.

And while Pelosi said she wants the next stimulus bill to be passed this month, this doesn’t seem feasible as the House isn’t scheduled to be back in session until April 20 at the earliest. That said, it is possible to pass legislation with most members out of town, as long as no one objects.

Other sources such as Fox Business News’ Charlie Gasparino, report that the Phase 4 stimulus would be even bigger, “somewhere in the $1.5 trillion neighborhood.”

Charles Gasparino

✔@CGasparino

SCOOP: Wall Street sources briefed by Congressional leaders and @WhiteHouse say expect next round of #virus stimulus by May, and somewhere in the $1.5 trillion neighborhood. PLUS: IPOs have dried up and may not come back this year, exchange officials tell @FoxBusiness more now

166

3:37 PM – Apr 6, 2020

Twitter Ads info and privacy

118 people are talking about this

Meanwhile, confirming that bipartisan support is effectively assured, President Trump said Saturday he’ll ask Congress for more money for small business loans if the $349 billion already designated for the program runs out.

So who pays for all this generosity? Why future generations of Americans of course. As Goldman concludes, “the substantial increase in the budget deficit resulting from the economic downturn and enacted and expected policy measures will increase federal debt held by the public from 79% of GDP in FY2019 to 99% by the end of FY2020 and to 108% of GDP by 2023, just above the prior peak level reached in 1946.”

Said otherwise, when it comes to the US debt, the country is now under war footing as the Treasury will now have to borrow an additional $3 trillion for the remainder of 2020…

… amounts that are only conceivable if the US were currently under a state of war.

Finally, for those wondering how to trade the fiscal insanity that is currently being unleashed, well…

Kuppy@hkuppy

 

 

Glad to see both parties supporting gold $10k… https://twitter.com/firstsquawk/status/1247272127058694144 …

First Squawk@FirstSquawk

US HOUSE SPEAKER PELOSI TELLS DEMOCRATS SHE WANTS NEXT VIRUS BILL AT LEAST $1 TRILLION

end

The fun begins:  New York Restaurateurs are now pleading with landlords for rent forgiveness and deferment so that they can continue once they are allowed to return

(Sutton/Eater.com)

 

NYC Restaurateurs Plead With Landlords For Rent Forgiveness And Deferment

Authored by Ryan Sutton, of Eater.com,

New York bars and restaurants, which reportedly laid off tens of thousands of staffers in March, are now negotiating with landlords to stave off another crisis: paying April rent.

 

Photo credit: Bess Adler/Eater

Real estate relief efforts are underway, including a 90-day state moratorium on evictions and a proposed tenant forgiveness bill. Nonetheless, rent payments are still due. “The reality is that many restaurants will not have the money to pay,” said Andrew Rigie, head of the New York Hospitality Alliance, a group that advocates on behalf of owners.

Some restaurants, like Simon Kim’s Cote in Flatiron, are looking to use security deposits in place of formal payments. Others are seeking rent forgiveness, a tough sell that the Boqueria tapas chain has managed to pull off in part. Still others are contemplating deferrals, a gamble that involves paying less now and more later. Following are accounts of how various NYC restaurant groups have pursued each of these three strategies:

Pursuing rent deferment

Some bars and restaurants are pursuing rent deferment. David Rosen — who runs a popular collection of Brooklyn bars, including the Breakers, and leads the Brooklyn Allied Bars and Restaurants industry group — tells Eater this week that he’s seeing fellow venues strike deals that involve paying just 25 to 50 percent of the current rent, while agreeing to pay back the remaining balance over the course of a few years.

But deferment might be the riskiest plan here, as it mimics taking a burdensome loan. “On the surface, such arrangements might seem like a real lifeline, but they aren’t sustainable beyond a month or so for most,” said Rosen. The higher rent that deferment inevitably brings can be “crippling” long term, he said, especially when “compounded with the financial complications of reopening in what is certain to be a fragile market.” Translation: If business drops off when restaurants reopen, a deferment deal can mean financial catastrophe.

Using security deposits

Simon Kim, owner at Cote, a Michelin-starred Korean barbecue spot that’s open for takeout and delivery, said he’s worked out a plan with his landlord where his security deposit gets used first.

“If you have a certain amount of cash held there, the landlord can burn it down and you can offer to rebuild the deposit over the course of the coming year,” he said. “It is not an insignificant amount of money, but it is manageable.”

Moshe Schulman — managing partner at East Village natural wine bars Kindred and Ruffian — is making the same pitch as well, but as part of a more complicated arrangement. One of his landlords agreed to a deferred payment on April rent in exchange for Kindred covering a portion of the commercial property tax. To pay for that tax obligation, which comes to about $3,000 per month, Schulman has asked for those funds to be taken out of the security deposit. He says his landlord is “considering it.”

Requesting full rent forgiveness

“Forgiveness is ideal,” said Alex Raij, owner atLa Varain Brooklyn and several other popular Spanish restaurants, citing the fact that the lost revenue “won’t come back.” Numerous other restaurants and bars contacted by Eater echoed that sentiment.

Landlords have an incentive to cut cash-strapped restaurants a break, helping ensure they eventually reopen rather than shutter amid unsustainable levels of debt. But forgiveness is a complicated pitch at the moment, as the real estate community tries to figure out whether it’ll be part of any type of rent relief or bailout. Indeed, Raij said some of her landlords were taking a “wait and see approach.”

Yann de Rochefort, who runs the growing Boqueria tapas empire, is the only restaurateur contacted by Eater who reported success in negotiating any type of forgiveness. He said he was able to avoid paying April rent “in some cases” at his seven restaurant group, while negotiations continue at other venues. The previously strong state of business notwithstanding, Rochefort wrote in an email that his pre-shutdown cash levels were “barely sufficient for two weeks’ payroll.”

Still, any sort of real rent forgiveness on a broader scale will take government action. There is state legislation in the works that would assist both tenants and landlords, but it’s not clear when (or if) it will come to pass.

Read more about those efforts here.

END
big problems at Kabbage and Colchis.  Actually Colchis suspends redemptions amid a flood of defaults and an unemployment surge
(zerohedge)

Online Lender Suspends Redemptions, Shuts Down Amid Flood Of Defaults, Unemployment Surge

Over the weekend we explained just why there has been such an unprecedented scramble to use up bank revolvers over the past month, which according to JPM have seen drawdowns of roughly $300 billion so far in 2020.

The reason: as clients of online lender Kabbage (which just happens to be “backed” by SoftBank) found out the very hard way, their credit lines were suddenly and without any explanation pulled, leaving thousands of clients without any access to liquidity.

The borrowers, who range from software consultants to heavy-equipment contractors, told Bloomberg that Kabbage didn’t give them any notice, and that they learned their credit lines had been suspended only upon logging into their accounts. Some said they were counting on the money to get through the tough times ahead.

“This is very bad business ethics,” said Joydeep Paul, who runs Medserv Healthcare Solutions LLC, an emergency-medical training company in Princeton, New Jersey. He says his line of credit was cut from $22,000 to $0. “You just turn it off without saying a word — not an email, not a phone call, nothing.”

“They’ve left me high and dry when I needed them the most,” Rob Jacques, co-founder of theCodery, a software consulting company in Petaluma, California told Bloomberg. He said he was particularly galled to be cut off without notice because until recently – when times were good – Kabbage called him every day asking him to borrow more money.

* * *

The problem is not just the procyclical nature of the lending industry, it also has to do with the novelty of an economic downturn from the perspective of the entire online lending industry, which as a reminder did not exist during the financial crisis, and so it is forced to learn how to cope with a recession on the fly, even as its IRR and loan valuation models blowing up every single day.

For some, the shock that the economy can contract and that prices don’t only go up has been too much, and as Reuters reports, San Francisco-based Colchis Capital Management, a backer of online direct lending platforms and private credit, is winding down its main funds as disruptions caused by the novel coronavirus have started to hit its consumer and real estate loans, according to materials reviewed by Reuters.

“The largest risk to the Colchis Income Funds is unemployment for our consumer loans and weakness in the housing market for our bridge real estate loans,” Colchis Chief Investment Officer Robert Conrads (a former McKinsey partner, naturally) wrote in a letter to investors on March 31 and seen by Reuters.

“Moreover, there is no consensus as to the timing or strength of the recovery in employment and economic conditions.” Well, there is consensus, but it is changing with every passing day, and what until last week was a V-shaped recovery is now seen as a W at best, it not an L.

It gets better: Conrads also wrote that the severe economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic was “difficult, if not impossible” to reflect in monthly valuations of Colchis’ loan portfolio, making it challenging to treat investors looking to cash out fairly. What he meant is that it is actually very easy to haircut the existing portfolio, the problem is that when one applies the necessary 50% haircuts to factor for the coming depression the results are… suboptimal.

Oh, and for those who thought that the brilliant management team shown below had any idea how to navigate an economic downturn…

… we have news: Colchis has also suspended withdrawals, and estimates a 19-month process to return all fund equity. Good luck collecting, gullible LPs.

According to Reuters, Colchis told investors to anticipate annual returns of around minus 1.7% if U.S. unemployment rises to 10%, versus a return of 4.2% if unemployment dips to 4%. The official U.S. unemployment rate now stands at around 5.5%, but is likely to be at least twice that, according to economists.

Colchis, founded in 2005 and led by Conrads and his son Ted Conrads, managed nearly $1 billion as of Dec. 31, 2019, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company invests in consumer and real estate loans and related securities and facilities, including relationships with online lenders Marlette Funding and PeerStreet, according to another document sent to investors last week.

Colchis has invested approximately $6 billion in more than 500,000 digital loans since 2011, according to its website.

But wait, the comedy does not end there, because after fucking over everyone, both investors and investments, Colchis – clearly unable to call time, “is considering the launch of a successor investment vehicle focused on more attractive distressed debt opportunities, such as asset-backed bonds and consumer loan portfolios.”

Yes, this disaster of a fund thinks that all will be forgiven and investors will just throw money at them just because they name their vehicle Colchis We Will Make It Better This Time Capital, LLP

* * *

Colchis was part of a wave of money managers that used high-tech loan platforms to fill a lending gap left by banks, which had retreated from riskier small loans in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. It also benefited greatly from zero percent interest rates that allowed any idiot to pass off as a genius investor.

Which means that Colchis is just the start: Private debt funds managed a record $812 billion globally, more than double the amount in 2012. The surge in assets and managers increased risk and lowered returns, as Reuters reported here in 2017. It also means that in the coming weeks hundreds of billions of online-originated loans will quietly be pulled as an entire industry lives through its first ever recession, actually make that depression.

END

Almost Half Of Small Businesses Will Close If They Cannot Re-Open Soon

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

In a new survey of small business owners, almost half (43%) say their livelihood is on the line and they are going to be forced to close permanently if they cannot resume normal activities soon. One in 10 (11%) are less than one month away from permanently going out of business thanks to the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

Additionally, about one in four (24%) small businesses have already shut down temporarily in response to the government’s demands to do so during the COVID-19 panic and overreaction. Among those that have not, 40% say they are likely to close at least temporarily within the next two weeks. This means a total of 54% of all small businesses report that they have closed or expect to close temporarily in the next 14 days.

When asked what proposals might offer the most relief, small businesses indicated support for three key provisions included in the recently enacted Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act:

  • 56% of small business say direct cash payments to Americans would be the most helpful form of aid from the government,
  • followed by loans and financial aid (30%), and
  • suspending payroll taxes (21%).

“As the poll results show, small business owners are looking for loans and financial aid to ensure they do not have to shut their doors or go bankrupt because of the coronavirus. American banks are ready to help, but they need clear guidelines from the Administration,” said Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the U.S Chamber of Commerce.

“American banks will be on the front lines to help businesses survive during this pandemic.”

The biggest help will come in the form of being allowed to reopen and conduct business as they had done.  Getting the economy up and running again is going to go the furthest when it comes to saving lives and helping people. At this point, the statistics of the outbreak provided by healthcare professionals no longer support a lockdown, economic shutdown, and the ramifications that have already followed. The government’s overreaction has done more harm than good.

Some small businesses still feel optimistic, however, according to the survey reported by U.S. Chamber. Almost one in four (23%) small business owners expect to hire in the next year.

As a society, we need to do right by those who offer services and get them reopened and return our lives to normal; before the authoritarian government takeover.  This pandemic is not the problem and has not been the problem for the past month.  The problem is the government’s response to it and the subsequent obedience of many Americans thanks to their own fears pushed down their throats by the mainstream media.  Far too many have been inclined to comply with the government’s commands to their own detriment and the fallout is going to be something we have never seen.

The sooner the government backs off the economic shutdown, the better this will be for everyone.

end

Consumer Credit Soared In February, Just Before The Economy Shut Down

Just like today’s JOLTS report, which as we reported earlier came in far stronger than expected, so today’s consumer credit report was largely meaningless, covering the month of February which unfortunately represented a different world. That said, coming in at $22.331BN this number also shattered expectations of a modest increase in consumer credit from $12BN to $14BN in February, printing nearly twice as high as expected. Whether or not one sees a higher number compared to expectations as a beat or a miss will depend on whether one is a Keynesian or Austrian economist.

Specifically, in February, Revolving credit rose by $4.2BN to a record $1.096 trillion, after shrinking by $2.5 billion the month prior.

At the same time, nonrevolving credit – mostly auto and student loans – rose $18.1BN, also hitting a new all time high of $3.129 trillion.

Alas, as noted above, none of this matters as the world was flipped upside down in March, however next month’s data will be extremely interesting, as it will show whether when faced with an upcoming economic crisis, American households splurged and used their credit card to buy everything they could, or conversely, they hunkered down and entered a savings hibernation. Needless to say, the former could be catastrophic for an economy where 70% of GDP is a function of consumer spending.

One thing however is certain: non-revolving debt, which is incurred mostly when purchasing cars, will plunge in March and may stay at or near zero for a long, long time.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

For the past week or so, we have published reports that showed the models that ‘experts’ used, which created a national panic and economic implosion, are not just wrong, they are wrong by a factor of 4+!

By last weekend, even elements in the MSM realized the Covid-19 models were bogus.  In our Monday missive, we noted (citing VIX) that sophisticated operators realized the Covid-19 panic was totally wrong last week, especially on Friday.  So, they got positioned for a stock market rebound.

On Sunday night, Dr. Birx had to admit the models were wrong and they were being revised.  Trump bailed her out by intervening during tough questioning about the models.  ESMs soared on Sunday night.

After trading sideways from China’s close until 9:45 ET, another upward ESM surge appeared after NY Gov. Cuomo reported new hospitalizations in New York fell to 358, a 75% tumble in four days.  Cuomo also said, “We don’t need any additional ventilators right now.”

After the Cuomo rally, stocks went inert until the usual last-hour rally commenced.  The rally stalled on reports that UK PM Boris Johnson was moved to intensive care.  The rally soon resumed.  ESMs and stock spiked higher during the final 13 minutes of the session.  The S&P 500 Index broke through its 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level (2650.89).  The 50% retracement (2792.69) is the next target.

We noted in a missive last week, that a technical indicator that astute traders utilize – when volatility invalidates most technical indicators – is Fibonacci Retracement levels.

Gold soared 4% on Monday as the squeeze on physical gold intensified.  @MacleodFinance: Comex June contract now at $1712.1, a premium to spot of $46. This could prove a disaster for some bullion banks.

Normally, commercials and arbs would sell the future contract and buy physical gold to lock in the spread.  Because there is a shortage of deliverable gold, there is a gaping spread.

We must reiterate that while the Covid-19 panic appears to be fake news, the damage to the economy is real and its depth and duration is undeterminable.  The stock market is celebrating the fact that the doomsday forecasts are invalid.  However, the equity rebound should be limited by economic realities.

On Monday, IHME-UW Model projections were revised significantly lower – but they are still too pessimistic.  The scheme is up.  However, the MSM will try ‘to get Trump’ on Covid-19 stuff.  The panic purveyors’ ‘blame game’ is commencing; it’s time to select excuses and draft patsies.

@AlexBerenson: @IHME_UW appears to have updated its model: It has cut the number of hospital beds needed for COVID patients on the peak of April by 45% – from 262,000 to 141,000 and ICU beds by 26% – from almost 39,700 to 29,200. Yet deaths remain almost the same, around 80,000… though the model updated just now, its projections remain inaccurate for actual use TODAY: for example, it predicts New York state on April 5 will need 24,000 beds and 6,000 ICU beds, about 1/3 more than the actual usage today…

     Fun fact: the @IHME_UW model estimates “health service utilization as a function of deaths.” In other words, it decides how many people will die and then projects BACK to how many hospital or ICU beds will be needed on a given day… This is so beyond ass-backwards I don’t know what to say; HOSPITALIZATIONS LEAD TO DEATHS, not the other way around… Here’s the paper, just so you don’t think I’m making this up: “From the projected death rates, we estimated hospital service utilization using an individual-level microsimulation model…”  https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf

Please note the model’s projections include social distancing.  Without social distancing, models projected 2.2m US deaths. With social distancing, models predicted 100k to 240k deaths.  To justify their gloom & doom, the usual suspects will claim social distancing is what made their projections horribly wrong.  Cuomo: Social distancing appears to be working.

@ABC: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo warns against “getting overconfident too quickly.”  “This is an enemy that we have underestimated since day one, and we have paid the price dearly.”  NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo says he’s increasing the maximum fine for social distance violations from $500 to $1,000. “It’s not really about the fine. Nobody wants the money. We want the compliance.” https://abcn.ws/2JUYm0d

@julie_kelly2: So what do we do with this confession? The country has been thrown into utter chaos and panic over Cuomo’s dire warnings of doom and accusations that Trump failed to help prepare NY.

@NikolovScience: The media keeps telling us that the US hospital system (and ICUs in particular) will be overrun by COVID19 patients, which is why most hospitals in US have cancelled elective surgeries.

Yet, 80% of all COVID hospitalizations are in NY, NJ and CT. NY State alone accounts for 61%.

As noted in yesterday’s missive, the CDC is boosting Covid-19 fatalities by telling doctors to list Covid-19 as the cause of death based even if it’s an assumption.  It’s clear why some experts need higher fatality rates and why some officials continue to spread doom and gloom.

@Barnes_Law: Only way to truly measure coronavirus death rate is to compare it to the usual death rate by that date in that community in past years. The fact the media is hiding this from you tells you all you need to know about what this key contextual data likely proves. Context matters.

NYC Health Commission Chair @MarkLevineNYC: Soon we’ll start “temporary interment”. This likely will be done by using a NYC park for burials (yes you read that right). Trenches will be dug for 10 caskets in a line.  It will be done in a dignified, orderly–and temporary–manner. But it will be tough for NYers to take.  The goal is to avoid scenes like those in Italy, where the military was forced to collect bodies from churches and even off the streets[The ensuing outrage over this naked attempt to induce panic forced Levine to retreat.]  This tweet has gotten a lot of attention.  So I want to clarify:  the is a contingency NYC is preparing for BUT if the death rate drops enough it will not be necessary.

@MarkLevineNYC February 9, 2020:In powerful show of defiance of coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC’s Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual #LunarNewYear parade. Chants of “be strong Wuhan!” If you are staying away, you are missing out!pic.twitter.com/NGBUAfHWpl

CDC Data supports theory of much earlier COVID infection than has been reported. – Data shows a dramatic spike in “Influenza Like Illness” in certain states as early as November of 2019

   The US Military participated in the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan, China between October 18 and October 27 of 2019. Their chartered flights arrive and depart from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.  Washington is one of the earliest states to show a spike in ILI… China attempted to use the games as an excuse to blame the US military for bringing the virus in to Wuhan…

It is clear from the CDC data that a number of states in the country experienced an onslaught of ILI beginning in November of 2019, much earlier and much more substantive than the four previous years…

If many more people than originally thought have already had this virus, and survived, it means that Americans in those areas are likely able to return to normal life. It gives us a broader data set to look at in terms of fatality, length of illness, treatment measures, etc. It also showcases the need for antibody testing to begin in rapid fashion, and begs the question “Why doesn’t the CDC already know this?” UncoverDC used their data… https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/05/could-cdc-data-prove-covid-19-infections-in-november-2019/

The Curve Is Already Flat – Evidence suggests that COVID-19 was here in November

A Mysterious Flu-like Illness Arrived in the US In Nov 2019

    Nearly twice as many ILI visits were reported during the beginning of the 2019–2020 flu season than were reported in either of the two previous years. By December 2019, there were over 80,000 US patients seeking treatment for flu-like symptoms — long before Chinese authorities reported COVID to global health organizations on 31 Dec 2019… Shifting the COVID 60 days back in time means the impending peak that everyone fears 60 days from now may be happening in real-time. It means that we are grossly overestimating the case fatality rate and that what we fear is just the beginning may actually be the peak.

http://web.archive.org/web/20200405014431/https:/medium.com/morozko-method/the-curve-is-already-flat-2de80eed1bd0

In general in the United States, flu season can start anytime in late fall, peak in mid-to-late winter (between December and February), and continue through early spring.  On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks. It will usually end by April, but in some years it can linger into May.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/flu-season-from-start-to-peak-and-end-2633835

@NikolovScience: The World Bank issued “pandemic bonds” in 2017 under the condition that an outbreak of a global pandemic by the middle of 2020 will make Investors lose their money:  Investors in World Bank’s ‘pandemic bonds’ face big losses due to the coronavirus outbreak…

https://cnbc.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-world-bank-pandemic-bond-investors-face-big-losses.html

Pandemic Bond Investors Brace for Wipeout as Coronavirus Spreads

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/pandemic-bond-investors-brace-for-wipeout-as-coronavirus-spreads

MichaelCoudrey: Hydroxychloroquine & azithroymycin are both very cheap medicines & both are out of patent. Without insurance, the 10 day treatment costs about $100.  Guess who absolutely hates that fact

Dr. Fauci Cheered Hydroxychloroquine Success Treating MERS Coronavirus in 2013… But Today He’s Skeptical… That’s Weird?   https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/wow-dr-fauci-cheered-hydroxychloroquine-success-treating-mers-coronavirus-2013-today-skeptical-weird/

Argument erupts between Fauci, Trump aide over coronavirus drug: report

Navarro’s comments… led to a heated debate about how the White House should talk about the malaria treatment [HPQ], with Fauci stressing that there was only anecdotal evidence that the medicine could combat coronavirus.  Fauci’s comment about anecdotal evidence “just set Peter off,”… Navarro pointed to the handouts, which reportedly included printouts of studies on hydroxyl chloroquine from around the world, and said to Fauci, “That’s science, not anecdote.”… https://trib.al/1Ba5ccG

@johncardillo: Bill Gates: Until coronavirus vaccine, world won’t be ‘truly normal’.  He and Fauci no longer hide their coordinated messaging. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bill-gates-coronavirus-outbreak-vaccine-pandemic

Trump Shuts Down CNN Reporter after They Criticize Him for “Promoting” Hydroxychloroquine

https://trendingpolitics.com/video/trump-shuts-down-cnn-reporter-after-they-criticize-him-for-promoting-hydroxychloroquine-6949.html

@MattMackowiak: Our national media is ROOTING for hydroxycloroquine to not work as a treatment for Covid_19. Think about that

An Ohio state representative said she will attempt to prosecute President Donald Trump for committing “crimes against humanity” by suggesting hydroxychloroquine could be used to treat coronavirus

https://freebeacon.com/democrats/ohio-dem-trump-committed-crime-against-humanity/

Detroit [Dem] rep says hydroxychloroquine, Trump helped save her life amid COVID-19 fight

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2020/04/06/democrat-karen-whitsett-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-trump/2955430001/

CBS Chicago’s @CharlieDeMar: There’s a nationwide shortage of the drug [HPQ] due to its possible promise in treating COVID-19. Illinois Pharmacists Association says in part due to doctors inappropriately prescribing to family, friends and themselves. [But, but Dr. Fauci & the MSM say…]

Cuomo Wants Trump Admin to Increase Hydroxychloroquine Supply since NY Tests Show Promise https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/04/cuomo-wants-trump-admin-to-increase-hydroxychloroquine-supply-since-ny-tests-show-promise/

@HowleyReporter: Individual states do NOT have the authority to ban pharmaceuticals approved by the FDA, according to Federal Precedent.  Chloroquine is approved by the FDA…

https://digitalcommons.law.msu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1155&context=lr

Reporters without Masks Grill Trump about Not Wearing a Mask   [Not a parody piece!]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/05/reporters-without-masks-grill-trump-about-not-wearing-a-mask/

As Trump reaches for hope and journalists shoot him down, reporters end up looking bad

I often wondered if today’s press corps had covered the allied landing at D-Day in June 1944, if their stories would have led with the disastrous American landing on Omaha Beach, the paratroopers who dropped miles away from their targets…. Indeed, if each of these genuine military setbacks had been the lead story, the American people might have lost the will to fight the rest of the war… https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/03/coronavirus-trump-hope-white-house-journalists-reporters-column/5106844002/

CBS News Posts Fraudulent Video of ICU Nurse Crying over Poor Working Conditions

“America is not prepared, and nurses are not being protected,” said the ICU nurse in the video. “I quit my job today. I went into work and I was assigned to a COVID patient on an ICU unit that has been converted to a designated COVID unit. None of the nurses are wearing masks.”… CBS added background music and captions to highlight a woman who lied about her workplace situation.

Prior to CBS picking up this video, Imaris posted on her public Facebook page that she has anxiety and bi-polar depression and had not been an employee at the hospital for over a year. She mentioned in her post that she was unsure if she was ready to return to her job…

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/06/cbs-news-posts-fraudulent-video-icu-nurse-crying-over-poor-working-conditions/

@johncardillo: In the last two weeks @CBSNews has been caught using fraudulent footage of a crying nurse and claimed an Italian ICU was a NYC hospital.  Still think the Dems and MSM aren’t creating and coordinating the fear and panic messaging. Remember, [Obama adviser] Ben Rhodes’ brother is the president of @CBSNews

Trump administration weighs legal action over alleged Chinese hoarding of PPE

Executives from 3M and Honeywell told US officials that the Chinese government in January began blocking exports of N95 respirators, booties, gloves and other supplies produced by their factories in China, according to a senior White House official…Around the same time that China cracked down on PPE exports, official data posted online shows that it imported 2.46 billion pieces of “epidemic prevention and control materials” between Jan. 24 and Feb. 29, the White House official said…

https://nypost.com/2020/04/05/trump-admin-weighs-legal-action-over-alleged-chinese-hoarding-of-ppe/

@1776Stonewall: Reporter tries so hard to avoid admitting that the inspector General who criticized Trump that hospitals are short on supplies is an Obama holdover. Trump catches him [ABC’s Karl]

DOJ rejects CNN analyst’s claim in fight over White House press room access – DOJ puts White House Correspondents’ Association on notice that press room is government property and only tradition gives group power to determine access

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/white-house-brawl-continues-over-coronavirus-briefing-room-access#.Xouco_sp68Y.twitter

@realDonaldTrump: Joe Biden wanted the date for the Democrat National Convention moved to a later time period. Now he wants a “Virtual” Convention, one where he doesn’t have to show up. Gee, I wonder why? Also, what ever happened to that phone call he told the Fake News he wanted to make to me?

 

Last week Biden said he had ideas on how to combat Covid-19 and would like to tell them to Trump.  DJT told the media during a daily Covid-19 briefing that he welcomes Joe’s call.  Yesterday, DJT called BS on Biden.  Joe’s campaign said it would reach out to DJT later.   They conversed in the afternoon.

 

@PhilipWegmann: Trump said that conversation with @JoeBiden lasted “probably 15 minutes,” that the former vice president is the one “who called,” and that “we had a really wonderful, warm conversation.”

 

Biden’s offer to help coronavirus efforts making governors’ jobs ‘difficult’ [and raises concerns]

In the email obtained by The Post, Biden’s political chief of staff Stacy Eichner told state officials that the former veep’s presidential campaign had received a “significant number of offers” from organizations and people eager to offer resources…But a senior adviser in one governor’s office who received the email said the Biden campaign was making their jobs “really difficult” by operating outside of the federal process and by refusing to engage with the administration’s efforts…“It also begs the question of why aren’t these companies working with the feds directly, or if they are, why are they holding back needed resources for political reasons?”…

https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/biden-campaign-coronavirus-offer-making-governors-jobs-difficult/

 

@TrumpWarRoom: Joe Biden [Sunday]: “We cannot let this, we’ve never allowed any crisis from the Civil War straight through to the pandemic of 17, all the way around, 16 [actually 1918], we have never, never let our democracy sakes second fiddle, way they, we can both have a democracy and elections and at the same time correct the public health.”  https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1246965704177451009

@TrumpWarRoom: Joe Biden [Monday]: “One, we have to uh, depend on what the president’s going to do right now. And first of all, he has to, uh, tell uh, uh—wait til the case is before anything happens. Look the whole idea is he’s got to get in place things that were shortages of.”

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1247213862044172290

 

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot defends getting a haircut amid coronavirus outbreak, says stylist wore ‘a mask and gloves’even though barbers and stylists were shut down under the state’s order…

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-lori-lightfoot-haircut-20200406-jmyz2wtccnadlknya7hzbetevy-story.html

 

@TheBabylonBee [parody]: Tragic: Bill Gates Had a Cure for Coronavirus but It Was Erased by a Windows Virus    https://babylonbee.com/news/tragic-bill-gates-had-a-cure-for-coronavirus-but-it-was-wiped-out-by-a-windows-virus

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

 

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