APRIL 8A//GOLD DOWN 60 CENTS TO $1650//SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TO $14.90//IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE CAN HAVE AN OIL DEAL DUE TO AMERICAN INTRANSIGENCE/HUGE CORONAVIRUS STORIES/SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD:$1650.00  DOWN $0.60   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

Silver:$14.90//DOWN $.21  London spot price

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

i)Gold : $1646.80  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $14.96//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $1669.50

JUNE GOLD:  $1686.10  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $36.80

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $15.15…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY: 41 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 563/1460

issued: 649

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,664.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/07/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 04/09/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 21
132 C SG AMERICAS 1
159 C ED&F MAN CAP 26
323 C HSBC 1
323 H HSBC 291
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 23
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 19
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 144
661 C JP MORGAN 649 563
661 H JP MORGAN 548
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
686 C INTL FCSTONE 5 84
690 C ABN AMRO 222 85
709 C BARCLAYS 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 36 40
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 18
880 H CITIGROUP 17
905 C ADM 31
991 H CME 92
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1,460 1,460
MONTH TO DATE: 27,401

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 1469 NOTICE(S) FOR 146,000 OZ (4.512 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  27,401 NOTICES FOR 2,740,100 OZ  (85.228 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

 

 

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 25,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 784 for 3,920,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $7273 UP $75 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $7323 UP $126

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $0.60: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

 

WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES (PAPER TONNES/NOT REAL STUFF)

 

GLD: 985.71 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

NO SILVER WAS ADDED TO OUR SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT

 

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 401.541  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL  BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1626 CONTRACTS FROM 140,600 DOWN TO 139,000 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE  OUR STRONG 50 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A CONSIDERABLE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ALONG WITH A STRONG GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING. WE HAD A VERY STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1045 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 2508 AND JULY: 203 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  713 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2711 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2711 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.555 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 50 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.045  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 50 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE TOTALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET GAIN OF 1111 CONTRACTS OR 5.425 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER JUDGING BY THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MAY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

6262 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6262 CONTRACTS) OR 31.810 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1252 CONTRACTS OR 6.262 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 31.810 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.60% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          925.30 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR                   31.810 MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1626, DESPITE THE $0.50 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2711 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1054 CONTRACTS (DESPITE OUR STRONG 50 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 2711 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1626 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 50 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.11 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY AS WELL AS A GOOD INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING//AMOUNT STANDING!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.695 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 99.2% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR  25,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.045 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 9646 CONTRACTS TO 480,977AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY COMEX GAIN IN PRICE  OF $0.30 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH TINY LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A STRONG  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR SMALL ADVANCE IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD. THUS THE LOSS ON THE COMEX WAS DUE TO  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING, SOME LONG LIQUIDATION, A  VERY STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING  AND OUR CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS , . WE LOST A SMALL 1768 CONTRACTS  (5.499 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7878 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 7878.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 7878.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 480,050. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1768CONTRACTS: 9646 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEXAND 7878 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 1768 CONTRACTS OR 5.499 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A TINY GAIN OF $0.30 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT TINY GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 5.499TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (ROSE $0.30). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 WE HAD  A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (7878) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN COMEX OI  (9646 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1768CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A MONSTROUS INCREASE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) SMALL LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT TINY GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 35,366 CONTRACTS OR 35,366 oz OR 110.00 TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7073 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 110.00 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 110.00/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2432.90  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (//(*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)
APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               110.00  TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1626 CONTRACTS FROM 140,600 DOWN TO 138,974 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A CONSIDERABLE SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) ZEROLONG LIQUIDATION

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 2711 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 2711; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2711 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1626 CONTRACTSTO THE 2711 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 1058 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  5.499 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ//APRIL 4.045 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 50 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2711 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.39 POINTS OR 0.19%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 82.92 POINTS OR 1.17%   /The Nikkei closed UP 403.06 POINTS OR 2.13%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .80%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0635 /Oil UP TO 24.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and 32.04 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0635 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0707 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

LET US BEGIN:

GOLD

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 9646 CONTRACTS TO 480,977 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI LOSS WAS SET WITH A TINY GAIN OF $0.30 IN GOLD PRICING //TUESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE (7878 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)    SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH THAT HUGE STANDING  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A TINY LOSS ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 1768 CONTRACTS.

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7878 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 7878 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7878 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  1768 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7878 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 9646 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE BY $0.30). THEY WERE  SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS, AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 5.499 TONNES.

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 1768 CONTRACTS OR 176,800 OZ OR 5.499 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  480,050 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 48.05 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1494 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1494/2200 OR 67.93% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 73,539 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY226,969 contracts//

APRIL 8

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 19,772,865 OZ

 

MANFRA

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

44,053.305

OZ

Loomis

HSBC

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1460 notice(s)
 146,000 OZ
(4.4512 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
309 contracts
(30900 oz)
0.9611 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
27,401 notices
2,740,100 OZ
85.228 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

i ) We had 1 deposits into the dealer

 

ii) Into the dealer Manfra: 19,772.865 oz

total dealer deposits: 19,772.865  oz

total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into HSBC 36,015.805 oz

ii) Into Loomis:  8037.500 oz  (250 kilobars)

and a phony entry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 44,053.305  oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil   oz

We had 2  kilo transactions

 

We had only one 4 KC bar transaction

ADJUSTMENTS: 2

the  two:  dealer to the customer:

Brinks:  3375.855 oz from the dealer to the customer Brinks

Manfra:  96.453 oz from the dealer to the customer Manfra. 3 kilobars

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 1769 contracts for a GAIN of  17 contacts. We had 808 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A VERY STRONG 815  contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 81,500 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and they also negated a fiat bonus

 

 

May saw its ANOTHER GAIN of 258 contracts to stand at  2409.

June saw a  LOSS OF 8114 contracts down to 348,998

 

 

We had 1460 notices filed today for 146,000 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 649 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1460 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 563 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (27,401) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (1769 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (1460 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,771,000 OZ OR 86.189 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (27,401)x 100 oz)  + 1769 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1460 x 100 oz which equals 2,771,000 oz standing OR 86.189 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

THIS GREATLY SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42. TONES OF GOLD STANDING IN ANY MONTH

We gained 815 contracts OR an additional 81,500 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the this side of the pond, first before travelling to London..

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

341,434.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.62 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  560,194.208  OZ OR 17.424  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 118.78 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS

total registered or dealer gold:   4,379,046.04 oz or  136.206 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  341,434.443 oz (or 10.6200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  560,194.208 oz or 17.424 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 3,818,851,8  (118.78 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  3,818,851.8 (118.78 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   17,104,942.725 oz 532.03 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:  no doubt held in London not N.Y.:  150.33 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  381.700 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

 

end

SILVER

April 8/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1626 CONTRACTS FROM 40,600 DOWN TO 138,974 (AND MOVING FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 50 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/TUESDAY.  THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH 1)  A CONSIDERABLE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION OCCURRING WITH OUR HUGE SILVER ADVANCE. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 30 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH LOST 21 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 21 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 6417  UP TO 68,851.

JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 8 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 25.

 

 

We, today, had  5 notice(s) FILED  for 25,000, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

APRIL 8/2019

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 630,311.04  OZ
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
5
CONTRACT(S)
(25,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
25 contracts
 125,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  784 contracts

3,920,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.170 million

total customer deposits today: 607,477.800   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of CNT:  624,536.200 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 5774.84 oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  630,311.04  oz

We had 0 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.178 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.672 million oz

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 5 contract(s) FOR 25,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 784 x 5,000 oz = 3,920,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.( 30) and the number of notices served upon today 5 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 784 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (30)- number of notices served upon today (5) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.equals 4,045,000 oz.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT  THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 23,031 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY:  100,765 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 100,765 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 503 million  OZ  71.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO +1.31% ((APRIL 8/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO +0.33% to NAV:   (APRIL 8/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 1.31%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.15 TRADING 15.13///DISCOUNT 0.16

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

APRIL 8/2020/  984.26 tonnes*

IN LAST 795 TRADING DAYS:   +39.57 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 695 TRADING DAYS;+214.55  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

 

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

 

 

APRIL 8.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

401.541 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 5.56/ and libor 6 month duration 1.22

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 4.52

gold is available only in vapour form!

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.90%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.04

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.86

gold nowhere to be seen

end

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

“We Are In A Long-Term Bull Market for Gold and Silver” – O’Byrne on IG TV

Currency is being created ‘on scale never seen before in the history of mankind’

Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore.com told IG TV that markets are likely in a long-term bull market for gold and silver and a bear market for equities as the pandemic weighs on the global economy and creates a recession or an economic depression.

Gold has made significant gains this year, with investors flocking to invest in the safe-haven asset amid the Covid-19 pandemic, which has wreaked havoc on global equities.

Gold is outperforming other assets and has delivered a 12% dollar return in 2020 year to date. Gold has seen even greater returns in other currencies and is 15% higher in euros and 19% higher in pounds year to date.

According to Mark O’Byrne, research director at Goldcore, investors can expect a long-term bull market for gold and silver and a bear market for equities as the coronavirus continues to weigh on the global economy.

When asked if gold prices could push above the $1700 mark on a sustainable basis, O’Byrne said that it is ‘a question of when, rather than if’, with the economic fallout of Covid-19 crisis so severe it has seen governments printing money ‘on scale never seen before in the history of mankind’ and currencies will fall in value against real assets like gold and silver.

Silver is particularly undervalued and silver rising back to $50/oz is a very conservative estimate indeed and we will get back to those levels again in the coming years.

Watch interview here


NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold slips as stronger dollar outweighs coronavirus worries

ECB urges measures worth 1.5 trln Euros to tackle virus crisis in euro zone

EU ministers fail to agree virus economic rescue in all-night talks

Japan’s economy has been dealt the ‘final blow’ by the coronavirus pandemic, says analyst

‘Cash Is Trash,’ Own Gold as Printing Presses Roll – Dalio on Reddit

Should we invest in gold as the coronavirus spreads? GoldCore via Sunday Times

Editors Note: The shortage of gold bullion coins and bars continues and may deepen as prices move higher. It is not just smaller one ounce bullion coins and bars that are difficult to source but also larger gold and silver bars including gold kilo bars (32.15 ozs) worth and 1,000 oz silver bars. Due to our direct relationships with government mints and refineries we continue to source large bars and some gold coins and bars in 1 oz formats. Silver coins in 1 oz format are not available from the government mints yet.

Watch Yesterday’s Live Video Update
Watch interview here

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

07-Apr-20 1652.20 1649.25, 1344.23 1333.75 & 1519.53 1511.21
06-Apr-20 1636.60 1648.30, 1330.72 1341.06 & 1515.49 1526.66
03-Apr-20 1609.75 1613.10, 1310.66 1315.97 & 1490.47 1495.34
02-Apr-20 1588.05 1616.80, 1277.59 1307.02 & 1452.27 1489.72
01-Apr-20 1594.25 1576.55, 1288.95 1270.23 & 1457.94 1442.86
31-Mar-20 1604.65 1608.95, 1299.61 1296.81 & 1461.52 1468.81
30-Mar-20 1624.35 1618.30, 1312.56 1305.97 & 1466.88 1466.02
27-Mar-20 1621.20 1617.30, 1325.33 1316.16 & 1473.18 1469.48
26-Mar-20 1620.10 1634.80, 1361.37 1358.19 & 1480.12 1487.01
25-Mar-20 1620.95 1605.45, 1357.22 1371.38 & 1494.84 1486.17
24-Mar-20 1599.50 1605.75, 1362.61 1371.47 & 1472.98 1489.49

Receive Our Award Winning Market Updates In Your Inbox – Sign Up Here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Interesting:  it seems that some of the Russian gold has been sold for dollars.  Because of the virus, Russian banks are asking the central bank to resume its gold buying

Reuters/GATA

Russian banks ask central bank to resume gold buying as virus hobbles exports

 Section: 

By Elena Fabrichnaya and Polina Devitt
Reuters
Tuesday, April 7, 2020

MOSCOW — Russian banks have asked the central bank to resume buying gold for its reserves with exports of the precious metal hobbled by the coronavirus outbreak, their lobby group said.

The country is the world’s third largest gold producer after China and Australia but the almost global grounding of passenger flights, which were used to transport the metal, has meant that banks who buy from producers before selling the metal on have to switch to a decreasing number of more expensive cargo flights or build up inventory.

… 

Russia’s central bank suspended gold purchases on the domestic market from April 1, without giving a reason. However, analysts have suggested it is focusing on foreign currency sales to support the rouble, which has fallen in line with lower oil prices as the virus spread.

Vasily Zablotsky, the head of the National Finance Association, a non-government lobby group of Russian banks, told Reuters that banks are “facing problems” exporting gold as there are also fewer cargo flights and transportation costs have doubled. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-russia-gold/russian-b…

END

With the globe short of dollars, the IMF is planning a Fed like program of short term loans to help kick start economies. It will not work

(Bloomberg/GATA)

IMF mulls Fed-like program to get dollars to more economies

 Section: 

By Saleha Mohsin and Eric Martin
Bloomberg News
Monday, April 6, 2020

The International Monetary Fund may launch a new program to help address the global shortage of dollars, providing a backup to the Federal Reserve’s campaign to keep greenbacks flowing around the world economy.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is preparing to offer short-term dollar loans to countries that lack enough Treasuries to participate in a Fed program that enables foreign central banks to temporarily exchange U.S. debt for dollars.

The initiative has the support of the U.S. Treasury and may be launched within weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. The U.S. is the fund’s largest shareholder. The IMF next week is scheduled to hold virtual meetings of members at a time when more than 90 countries have already asked for its assistance in shielding their economies from the coronavirus and global recession. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-06/imf-mulls-fed-like-pr…

END

Central banks need a higher price for gold to generate inflation and devalue excessive debt which is hampering the world’s economy

The USA will not allow this because of their massive short position

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs/GATA)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Central banks need a higher gold price

 Section: 

11:15a ET Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Many central banks lately have been buying gold and have begun to want a higher gold price, Voima Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes today, to generate inflation, devalue the excessive debt hampering the world’s economy, and strengthen their own balance sheets.

Nieuwenhuijs pointedly notes that the United States has not lately made any favorable nods to the monetary metal.

Nieuwenhuijs’ conclusion matches the analysis offered in 2012 by the U.S. economists Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance —

http://www.gata.org/node/11373

— the analysis offered in 2006 by the Scottish economist Peter Millar —

http://www.gata.org/node/4843

— and your secretary/treasurer last month:

http://gata.org/node/19944

Nieuwenhuijs’ commentary is headlined “Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Central Banks Need a Higher Gold Price” and it’s posted at Voima Gold here:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/jan-nieuwenhuijs-central-banks-need-a-…

It is offered as a preface to an interview he recently gave to a Polish financial news organization that is published in English here:

https://strefainwestorow.pl/artykuly/wywiady/20200406/gold-crisis-corona…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Bloomberg comments on the difference in price between gold in London and gold in New York..a sign of dislocation

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Gold markets again haunted by signs of dislocation

 Section: 

Comex was just rescued with gold from JPMorgan.

* * *

By Justina Vasquez and Elena Mazneva
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Gold prices that usually move in lockstep are diverging again, reviving fears of impending turmoil just a couple of weeks after the last bout of panic.

An ounce of bullion sold in New York was as much as $50 more expensive than in London on Tuesday, compared with just a few dollars in normal times. The price spread is seen as a measure of the cost to swap futures contracts into gold in its physical form.

… 

A similar discrepancy occurred about two weeks ago, as the coronavirus crisis disrupted supply chains and caused flight cancellations, leading to worries over a gold-bar shortage in New York just before April futures contracts became deliverable.

In the end, banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. made more gold available and exchange inventories swelled to levels that were more than enough to cover any demands for delivery.

The resumption in price divergence shows, however, that investors may be still worried about supply disruptions even though delivery for the current most-active futures contract — June — isn’t due any time soon. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/gold-rallies-spread-b…

END

Craig Hemke outlines how spot prices differ greatly from the futures prices and why arbitrage does not kick in..basically owners are afraid that they will not get their gold in the first place

a must read..

Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: A crisis of confidence endures with gold futures

 Section: 

8:36p ET Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The gap between the spot prices for gold and silver and the prices for near-term gold and silver futures contracts remains high, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes tonight at Sprott Money, signifying tight supply of the metals and concern that delivery of spot purchases by arbitrageurs might not be made before the arbitrageurs would be obliged to deliver against the futures contracts they had sold.

When this gap opened last week, Hemke notes, the “system apologists and shills” claimed that there was plenty of metal but that it was just in the wrong places amid delays in delivery caused by the coronavirus epidemic. But the gap continues this week, indicating that deliveries still have not been assured.

… 

Hemke concludes: “Understand that demand is increasing for gold and silver in all their forms. Prices of precious metal and the miners will continue higher as 2020 progresses, regardless of the efforts of the banks and the London Bullion Market Association and CME Group to sustain faith in their fractional-reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “A Crisis in Confidence” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/a-crisis-in-confidence-craig-hemke.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

Lacalle: Is Now The Time To Buy Gold?

In this interview Daniel Lacalle explains why the fundamentals for gold are stronger each day, and why silver and palladium should not be ignored in the current crisis.

Central banks keep buying more gold and will need even more as massive liquidity measures drive their balance sheets higher.

Supply challenges remain with some mines being shut down and new supply coming well below demand (as evidenced by the decoupling – once again – between spot and futs)…

Massive monetary imbalances globally will drive demand from investors looking for a hedge to currency debasement (and that systemic risk is soaring, with sovereign credit markets starting to leak information)…

*  *  *

Finally, we give the last word to Raoul Pal and his most recent thoughts (excerpted) on “A Dollar Standard Crisis” (referring to his institutional market research at Global Macro Investor)…

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0635/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0707   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 5.39 POINTS OR 0.19%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 282.92 POINTS OR 1.17%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 403.06 POINTS OR 2.13%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.0874

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. -+.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.91/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 24.48 and Brent: 32.04

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.31%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.69% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.83%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.00: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.80

3k Gold at $1649.30 silver at: 15.06   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.55

3m oil into the 24 dollar handle for WTI and 32 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.91 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9712 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0561 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.31%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.75% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.34%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.7650..

Futures Rebound From Tuesday’s Historic Reversal Despite European Chaos

S&P futures rebounded and European stocks fell as investors were conflicted by Tuesday’s late plunge – which saw stocks close red after the biggest surrender of gains since Oct 2008…

… and the latest data surrounding the coronavirus economic, as well as the ongoing political chaos in Europe. The dollar trimmed a gain and Treasuries slipped.

The three big US index futures swung between modest losses and gains before turning higher as air carriers including Delta Air Lines rose in the premarket. Overnight, the White House was again said to be developing plans to get the U.S. economy back in action even as Wuhan reopened to the world, starting a second wave of infections.

Despite strong early gains on Tuesday after health officials said the pandemic may kill fewer Americans than recent projections, the three major indexes ended lower as oil prices tumbled. New York, the U.S. epicenter of the pandemic, was one of several states to post their highest number of daily virus-related fatalities on Tuesday, with total infections in the country approaching 400,000. Also overnight, Tesla became the latest U.S. company to furlough staff and cut salaries during a shut down of its U.S. production facilities.

In Europe, most of the 19 sector groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index were in the red, after euro-area finance chiefs as usual failed to agree on a $540 billion economic package to respond to the pandemic. The euro dropped as much as 0.6% to $1.0830…

… while Italian 10-year bonds took a hit with yields jumping as much as 18 basis points to 1.80% as European officials struggled to reconcile visions for how to recover from the virus as a feud emerged between Italy and the Netherlands over mutualized bond issuance. Core debt in the region gained. France’s first-quarter output shrank the most since World War II, the latest indicator of the severity of the shock to the world’s biggest trading region.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were little changed, with energy falling and health care rising, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were down, with Jakarta Composite dropping 3.2% and Singapore’s Straits Times Index falling 1.3%, while Japan’s Topix Index gained 1.6%. The Topix gained 1.6%, with Kubotek and Intellex rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.2%, with Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts and Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology posting the biggest slides.

As Bloomberg notes, investors remain reluctant to take big risks while forecasts are for the virus to grow rapidly in some of the biggest economies,the U.S., Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. They’re also concerned that fiscal stimulus measures will be too late or not enough to counter the effects of the pandemic as efforts to formulate a European response drag on.

“As the quarter progresses, investors start to understand that everything we’re seeing is in the form of assistance and aid to just tide the economy over,” Bob Michele, global chief investment officer at JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “It’s not stimulus that gets the economy going at a much higher rate than where it is.”

In FX, the dollar advanced against all its G-10 peers and the euro slipped after European Union finance chiefs failed to agree measures to mitigate effects of the coronavirus. The Australian dollar slipped after S&P Global Ratings cut the country’s credit-rating outlook to negative from stable. The kiwi initially edged lower after New Zealand’s central bank said it is open to increasing the size and scope of its asset-purchase program, but since regained most losses. The pound steadied after slipping against a broadly stronger dollar; Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s deputy Dominic Raab sought to reassure Britain that the battle against coronavirus was under control even as the daily death toll rose to a record Tuesday. Norway’s krone, Sweden’s krona and the Australian dollar led G-10 declines.

In commodities, WTI crude rose after Tuesday’s sharp plunge. Investors are weighing whether the world’s biggest producers will be able to strike a deal that cuts enough output to offset an unprecedented demand loss from the coronavirus outbreak.

To the day ahead now, and data releases out today include the Bank of France’s industry sentiment indicator for March, weekly MBA mortgage applications from the US, and from Canada there’ll be February’s building permits and March’s housing starts. Later on, there’ll also be the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s emergency FOMC meeting on March 15 which will be an interesting snapshot of what went on the day the Fed cut rates 100bps to close to zero.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 2,674.5
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 322.09
  • MXAP up 0.06% to 139.57
  • MXAPJ down 0.9% to 446.91
  • Nikkei up 2.1% to 19,353.24
  • Topix up 1.6% to 1,425.47
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 23,970.37
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,815.37
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 29,750.17
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 5,206.94
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 1,807.14
  • German 10Y yield fell 3.6 bps to -0.345%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.0855
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $31.80/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 12.4 bps to 1.443%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 0.805%
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $31.80/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,649.77
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.4% to 100.25

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The White House is developing plans to get the U.S. economy back in action that depend on testing far more Americans for the coronavirus than has been possible to date, according to people familiar with the matter
  • A pan-European approach for Covid-19 mobile apps should be drawn up by April 15, the EU said in proposals set to be rubber-stamped as soon as Wednesday
  • The French economy shrank the most since World War II in the first quarter, and the outlook for the rest of the year is souring significantly amid the confinement to limit the spread of the coronavirus, according to the Bank of France
  • Germany’s economy will likely shrink this quarter at more than twice the pace recorded at the height of the financial crisis, according to the country’s leading research institutes
  • The number of new coronavirus infections in Germany rose the most in three days, bringing the total to 107,663 in one of Europe’s worst-hit nations

A tentative tone was observed in Asia-Pac bourses following the lacklustre performance stateside where all major indices finished with marginal losses after the initial risk on tone eventually lost steam ahead of looming key risk events including the conclusion of the Eurogroup deliberations and tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting. ASX 200 (-0.8%) traded choppy with the early heavy losses in Australia triggered by weakness across the top-weighted financials sector after the regulator issued guidance on banks and insurers in an effort to restrict dividends and with sentiment also dampened after S&P cut the outlook on the country’s AAA sovereign rating to negative from stable, although the index later shrugged off the losses as the sentiment improved in late trade, while the Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) was also indecisive for most the session after the cabinet approved a record JPY 108tln stimulus package and declared a month-long state of emergency as expected. Hang Seng (-1.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) conformed to the early cautious tone in the region amid PBoC liquidity inaction but with downside stemmed after the State Council continued to outline supportive measures and after outbound travel restrictions were lifted from Wuhan which was the former epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded back above the 152.00 level but with price action rangebound amid the indecision in Japan and following a tepid Rinban announcement in which the BoJ are present in the market for a total of JPY 670bln of JGBs in 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities with the amounts unchanged from prior operations.

Top Asian News

  • Morgan Stanley Among Biggest Lenders to Embattled Luckin Founder
  • Nintendo’s Animal Crossing Becomes New Hong Kong Protest Ground
  • Fuchs’s BFAM Hedge Fund Suffers 16% Loss Amid March Market Rout
  • Pakistan’s Fragile Health System Faces a Viral Catastrophe

The risk tone across Europe took a turn for the worse after Eurozone Finance Ministers yesterday failed to agree on the stimulus measures to deploy in light the coronavirus crisis. Italy noted that it will reject a final report sent to EU leaders unless debt mutualisation is mentioned as a tool whilst also demanding no conditional attachments to the ESM loans. Netherlands reiterated their objection Eurobonds and intimated a majority agree on this. Price action this morning saw futures sliding off following reports of the impasse in talks, and confirmation via Eurogroup President Centeno of the delay. European cash markets are subdued by circa 1.0-2.0% across the region (Euro Stoxx 50 -1.4%). Sectors are mostly in the red with underperformance seen in Energy amid yesterday’s losses in the complex, whilst Financials also bear the brunt of the Eurogroup deadlock and lower yield environment. Looking at the breakdown, Oil and Gas are the laggards whilst Travel & Leisure continue to feel some reprieve. In terms of individual movers, Tui (+3.5%) leads the early doors gains in the Stoxx 600 after the Co. confirmed the signing of EUR 1.8bln state aid bridge loan. Tesco (-5.0%) shares remain in negative territory after the Co. noted that COVID-19 is having a material impact on business and the group is incurring significant additional costs. The estimated impact is seen on retail cost lines seen between GBP 650-925mln. Commerzbank (-6.4%) remains near the bottom of the pan-European index after reports the sale of its Polish unit mBank could be delayed amid the virus crisis

Top European News

  • Hedge Fund Lansdowne’s Decline Deepens After Worst-Ever Loss
  • Tesco Plans $6 Billion Special Dividend as Stockpiling Eases
  • Goldman’s Oppenheimer Says Recovery Will Be Strong After Big Dip

In FX, the Aussie has reversed further from Tuesday’s post-RBA peaks in wake of S&P’s ratings review that came with a sting in the tail as the agency downgraded its outlook on the sovereign’s AAA standing. Aud/Usd is back below 0.6150 vs 0.6200+ when broad risk sentiment was still buoyant and its Antipodean peer was also outpacing the Usd on the 0.6000 handle compared to just under 0.5950 currently. In terms of Kiwi specifics, RBNZ Deputy Governor underlined the severity of the COVID-19 contagion overnight by stating that QE can be expanded to include other assets like linkers given that the pool of conventional bonds that can be purchased is limited. Elsewhere, the Loonie has lost 1.4000+ status after failing to test sub-1.3950 resistance ahead of Canadian housing data and against the backdrop of idling crude prices awaiting tomorrow’s OPEC+ showdown.

  • EUR/CHF/GBP – All on a weaker footing against the US Dollar as risk appetite wanes, but with the Euro also undermined by the Eurogroup’s failure to resolve differences on a coordinated fiscal response to the coronavirus even though dire economic predictions continue to unfurl, ie French Q1 GDP -6% per the BdF and Germany contracting almost 10% in the current quarter according to leading institutes. Eur/Usd holding between 1.0902-1.0831 parameters and perhaps propped by an array of decent option expiries stretching from 1.0800 to 1.0900 – full details available via the headline feed at 7.33BST. Meanwhile, the Franc is skirting 0.9700, but retaining an underlying safe-haven premium relative to the single currency as the cross hovers around 1.0550 and Sterling is also somewhat mixed awaiting more UK nCoV updates and progress reports from hospital where PM Johnson remains in intensive care. Cable is clinging to 1.2300 and Eur/Gbp is meandering in the low 0.8800 area, well above 1.5 bn expiry interest from 0.8700 to 0.8710.
  • JPY/DXY – The Yen and Buck are still jostling for position amidst fluctuating risk-on/off phases, with Usd/Jpy confined to narrow 109.00-108.50 extremes and the index not much more adventurous in advance of weekly US mortgage applications and FOMC minutes either side of 100.00, albeit with a firmer bias on balance up to 100.430 at best.

In commodities, choppy price action is seen in the energy complex in the run-up to arguably the most OPEC+ meeting to date. A delegate overnight noted that scenarios range from 10mln BPD of output curtailment to no cuts at all. The OPEC+ group’s monitoring committee is said to be preparing a draft for prospective output cuts. Several sources via Energy Intel note two scenarios will reportedly be presented: 1) The first scenario sees OPEC+ no longer being bound by production restrictions. This set-up would see a continuation of the current state of affairs – Saudi would stick to its current production quota in excess of 12mln BPD (vs. 9.7mln BPD in March) 2) In the second scenario, OPEC members alongside Russia and other producers would implement joint 10mln BPD reductions through to the end of the year, whilst TASS yesterday reported a time-frame of three months. Elsewhere, last night’s APIs proved to be another bearish release, with inventories building 11.9mln barrels vs. Exp. build of 9.3mln. Albeit, prices remained locked onto OPEC headlines. The release of the EIA STEO (ahead of next week’s OPEC and IEA Oil Market Reports) encapsulated the March impact of COVID-19, the agency cut 2020 world oil demand growth forecast by 5.6mln BPD to 5.23mln BPD and raised 2021 forecast by 4.68mln BPD to 6.41mln BPD. Nonetheless, WTI and Brent front-month futures are now mixed after sentiment was hit by news of a roadblock among EZ finance ministers on a stimulus package for the bloc. WTI outperforms its Brent counterpart with the former currently residing around USD 24.50/bbl, having had earlier topped its 21DMA (USD 24.98/bbl) to a high of USD 25.29/bbl in overnight trade. Brent meanwhile briefly dipped below USD 32.00/bbl having earlier tested resistance at USD 33/bbl (intraday high). Elsewhere, spot gold remains steady and within a relatively narrow USD 1640-57/oz intraday band. Copper prices meanwhile wiped out mild overnight gains as risk sentiment deteriorated after reports EZ finance ministers failed to reach a consensus on EU-wide stimulus to combat COVID-19. The red metal looks to retest its 21DMA to the downside at USD 2.25/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 15.3%
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 56.3
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Things are getting to a stage at home where my wife has started to give haircuts to the children. I didn’t watch her give the 2 year old twins their sheering yesterday but in seeing the results last night at bed time my strong guess is that they moved a lot in the process. I have numerous pictures from my childhood where my brother and I have spectacular bowl cuts as home haircuts in the more austere 1970s and early 1980s were all the rage. Parents literally used to put bowls on your head and cut around it – well mine did. Nowadays my children normally get pampered in a salon with an exotic fish tank. So we’re taking them back 40 years albeit without the bowl as a template. I look forward to the photographic memories of uneven hair in 40 years’ time. Thankfully this problem has passed my hair by long ago.

Talking of haircuts, the Eurogroup meetings yesterday were trying to find ways of ensuring bondholders don’t take one in the future. However talks have continued through the night and a press conference has been scheduled for 10am CET this morning. According to Bloomberg, France and the southern bloc have been pushing for a firm commitment for a recovery fund that would be financed by jointly issued bonds however this has caused a split with the likes of Germany and the Netherlands pushing back. The plan of a recovery fund has been put forward by the French government and aims to create a temporary reserve worth 3% of EU GDP with a lifetime of as long as 10 years, and would be funded by the joint issuance of debt to mutualize the cost of the crisis. This is in addition to the three main proposals which we had highlighted yesterday that are under discussion. As well as the recovery fund, the group is also believed to be struggling on the wording related to the ESM proposal. A preliminary draft agreement distributed to ministers yesterday night didn’t include a reference to joint debt or the time frame for a recovery fund to be arranged, and was rejected by supporters of these solutions. We should know more later this morning.

In addition to the Eurogroup, the ECB unveiled a set of temporary collateral easing measures yesterday, which included accepting Greek government bonds as collateral. Looking at the other measures, there was also a temporary increase in the Eurosystem’s risk tolerance with a “general reduction of collateral valuation haircuts by a fixed factor of 20%. However, the statement did say that the measures were temporary during the coronavirus and “linked to the duration of the PEPP”, with a reassessment coming before the end of the year. However it shows that rules are rules until events overtake them.

Over in the US meanwhile, Senate Majority leader McConnell said that he was working to provide further funds for the small-business loan programs, with a vote being held tomorrow. The initial numbers released are in the $250bn range, supplementing the $350bn that the government passed in the original $2.2 trillion stimulus package. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he excepts the votes in the Senate and House to take place by the end of the week, having spoken with leaders in both chambers. This plan is not in conjunction with Speaker Pelosi’s for another $1trillion aid package focused on small businesses that she floated at a call with Democrats on Monday, and it remains to be seen whether the two party leaders can merge the two bills or if there will be more political gridlock on this round of stimulus.

In terms of markets, it looked set to be another positive day for risk assets across the board yesterday, with a number of equity indices technically entering bull market territory intraday, having risen by at least 20% from their closing lows less than a month ago. However after Europe closed we saw a notable retracement. The S&P fell from a near 3.5% gain to close down slightly at -0.16%, the smallest absolute move the index has seen since a similar drop on February 13th and only the 3rd day out of the last 28 trading days where we saw a smaller than 1% move in either direction for the day. Interestingly twitter suggested this was the biggest intra-day gain for the S&P 500 where the index eventually fell and closed lower since 17th October 2008. The late market fall did seem to coincide with a fall in Oil which went from positive territory to close -3.57% in the last three hours of trading as nervousness mounts about whether the imminent OPEC+ talks (meeting tomorrow) will see enough progress, although the news appears to be more positive overnight (see below). There was also an increase in US weekly inventory levels which contributed to the late fall.

Over in Europe before the falls, Germany’s Dax did cross the so called bull market definition, with its +2.79% increase yesterday putting it up +22.68% since 18th March. The STOXX 600 was up +1.88% and is now +16.79% from the lows. Credit spreads reflected the change in risk sentiment, with US HY cash spreads -38bps tighter and IG -11bps tighter. While it was similar on this side of the Atlantic, where Europe HY cash spreads were -31bps tighter and IG -8bps tighter.

This morning Asian markets are a bit more mixed. The Hang Seng (-0.99%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.32%) are both down while the Nikkei (+0.57%) and Kospi (+0.08%) have posted modest gains. In FX, the Australian dollar is down -0.65% after S&P cut the country’s credit-rating outlook to negative from stable while the US dollar index is up +0.31% this morning after yesterday’s -0.78% decline. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude oil prices are trading up +5.25% and +2.20% respectively with President Trump saying in an interview overnight that he has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about low oil prices and believes that “it’s all going to work out.” Base metal prices are also trading up with iron ore up as much as +2.82%.

In other news, the SCMP has reported that the Hong Kong government is set to announce a fresh round of more than HKD 30bn ($3.87 bn) in stimulus to support businesses devastated by the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, Australian parliament is also expected to pass a record AUD 130bn ($80 bn) jobs-rescue plan today.

The positive sentiment earlier in the session yesterday came as the market narrative continues to shift towards the exit strategy from the shutdowns and social distancing measures. In the US, the Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, said that the economy could re-open in the next 4-8 weeks. Remember in our “The exit strategy” note from last week (link here) we had the US easing restrictions at May 22nd so a choice price for you rather than a four week bid-offer. Over in Italy, Bloomberg reported that certain firms could open again in mid-April, earlier than our May 7th speculation but clearly baby steps still at the moment. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that the news wasn’t entirely one-sided, with Prime Minister Abe declaring a state of emergency in 7 prefectures including Tokyo, while Paris banned outside sports (i.e. exercise) between 10am and 7pm.

In terms of new covid-19 cases our fears that Tuesday would bring a lagged weekend reporting catch up of new cases and deaths in the UK materialised as the UK saw 786 new deaths reported yesterday, the highest of the outbreak. However as you’ll see in the Corona Crisis Daily the 3-day average of growth in UK deaths at 12.6% is still substantially below the previous 3-day growth rate of 22.4%. A similar story emerged in NY as even while new case growth fell to 5.2%, the rate of new deaths rose yesterday even though it broadly remains in a down trend. Spain and Italy showed no “Tuesday effects” with both countries seeing the lowest percentage change so far in both new cases and fatalities.

Back to markets and the risk-on meant it was another bad day for safe haven assets, with yields on 10yr Treasuries and bunds up by +4.2bps and +11.6bps respectively, the biggest daily increase for both in nearly 3 weeks. The moves in southern Europe were also sizeable, with BTPs up +12.6bps (spreads only 1.0bps wider), though Greece was the outlier as yields fell by -6.6bps given the collateral news reported above. Other safe assets also suffered, with the dollar index falling by -0.78%, snapping a run of 4 successive increases, while gold’s 4-day winning run also came to an end with a -0.80% decline.

There wasn’t much in the way of data out yesterday, though the NFIB’s small business optimism index in the US fell to 96.4 in March, down from 104.5 in February. That’s the largest decline on record, and it’s the lowest level since October 2016, before President Trump’s election. We did get data on US job openings for February, which stood at a higher than expected 6.882m (vs. 6.500m expected), though the number has been rendered a snapshot of a previous age thanks to the impact of the coronavirus. Finally from Europe, we also got February’s industrial production numbers from Germany. They showed a year-on-year decline of -1.2% (vs. -3.0% expected). Largely old news.

To the day ahead now, and data releases out today include the Bank of France’s industry sentiment indicator for March, weekly MBA mortgage applications from the US, and from Canada there’ll be February’s building permits and March’s housing starts. Later on, there’ll also be the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s emergency FOMC meeting on March 15 which will be an interesting snapshot of what went on the day the Fed cut rates 100bps to close to zero.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.39 POINTS OR 0.19%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 82.92 POINTS OR 1.17%   /The Nikkei closed UP 403.06 POINTS OR 2.13%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .80%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0635 /Oil UP TO 24.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and 32.04 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0635 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0707 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

This is not good!  Wuhan ends its lockdown despite thousands of citizens being positive but asymptotic. These people are leaving China to all parts of China and that has the potential to unleash havoc on the nation..especially with the 21 day incubation phase.

(zerohedge)

Here Comes The Second Wave: Wuhan Lockdown Ends And Tens Of Thousands Are About To Flee The City

Last week we reported that even as the world’s attention had shifted to the new global coronavirus outbreak epicenters of New York, Italy, Spain and other western nations, China – which rushed to restart its economy at any cost – had put a major county on lockdown after a new cluster of coronavirus infection had emerged. To wit, last Wednesday we learned that in post on its social media account, Jia county – which has a population of about 600,000 – said that no one can travel out of Jia county without proper authorization after one person tested positive.

This new cluster emerged just days after China once again revised its virus reporting methodology to also include asymptomatic carriers of the disease, which naturally begged the question why China wasn’t reported his subset of infections previously.

We got the answer yesterday when Mainland China reported 39 new coronavirus cases as of Sunday, up from 30 a day earlier, and the number of asymptomatic cases also surged, as Beijing continued to struggle to extinguish the outbreak despite drastic containment efforts. China’s National Health Commission said in a statement on Monday that 78 new asymptomatic cases had been identified as of the end of the day on Sunday, compared with 47 the day before. Of the new cases showing symptoms, 38 were people who had entered China from abroad, compared with 25 a day earlier, although how China keeps track of this on an instantaneous basis is unclear. Also it’s odd to blame “imports” as China also closed off its borders to foreigners, though according to Beijing most imported cases involve Chinese nationals returning from overseas.

Worse, an update posted late on Tuesday showed that the number of most asymptomatic cases hasnearly doubledsince Sunday’s peak:

This means that whether asymptomatic or not, imported or domestic, Hubei-based or not, on April 5, China reported the most new Coronavirus cases in a month as slowly the disease appears to be reestablishing itself in the world’s most populous nation.

This is a problem because it suggests that despite the now chronic data obfuscation, China may be about to unleash to a second wave of coronavirus infections – both domestically and internationally – something JPMorgan predicted is virtually inevitable.

It’s an even bigger problem because at midnight on Wednesday, China ended its lockdown of Wuhan, the city where the coronavirus first emerged and remains the symbol of a pandemic that has killed tens of thousands of people, shaken the global economy and thrown daily life into upheaval across the planet.

Alas, as the NYT reports, the city that has reopened after more than 10 weeks is a profoundly damaged one, a place whose recovery will be watched worldwide for lessons on how populations move past pain and calamity of such staggering magnitude. What’s worse, is that judging by the latest reports, a new cluster of cases may be emerging and since Wuhan was ground zero, the risk is that by reopening Wuhan, China may be about to restart a whole new global wave of infections.

 

A park along the Yangtze River in Wuhan, China, on Monday

But first, a little background.

Chinese authorities sealed off Wuhan, an industrial hub of 11 million people, in late January, in a frantic attempt to limit the outbreak’s spread. At the time, many outsiders saw it as an extreme step, one that could be tried only in an authoritarian system like China’s. But as the epidemic has worsened, governments around the world have enacted a variety of stringent restrictions on their citizens’ movements.

Wuhan was by far the worst-hit part of the country, accounting for 50,008 confirmed coronavirus cases—61% of China’s total—and 2,571 deaths, or 77% of the national toll, according to official figures as of Monday.

Meanwhile, some 1.4 million infections and 80,000 deaths have been reported worldwide — figures that are rising fast, and that officials say vastly understate the true extent of the pandemic, a pandemic which despite mainstream attempts to shift the topic, most likely emerged as a result of deadly leak (an involuntary one, one assumes) from the Wuhan Institute Of Virology. The contagion has slowed in hard-hit countries like Italy and Spain, but it continues to spread quickly elsewhere around the globe, including in the United States, which is approaching 400,000 known infections.

News reports are filled with scenes of overflowing hospitals in New York City, uncollected bodies on streets in Ecuador, updates on the condition of Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain, who is hospitalized in intensive care, and expert warnings that the epidemic could be exploding, undetected, in the poorest parts of the world. Most of Europe, India, much of the United States and many other places are under orders for businesses to close and most people to stay at home, abruptly crippling economies and throwing millions of people out of work.

Yet as the world grapples with how to minimize transmission and isolate potential carriers by preaching a culture of “social distancing”, China is doing the opposite, and taking a massive gamble by allowing potential carriers to resume their normal social interactions with countless people.

To be sure, that’s not how Beijing sees it: Wednesday’s reopening of Wuhan came after only three new coronavirus cases were reported in the city in the previous three weeks, and a day after China reported no new deaths for the first time since January. The report that China is fine sparked ridicule from such Sinophobes as Heyman Capital’s Kyle Bass who did not exactly believe China’s “data” to put it mildly:

😷Kyle Bass😷

@Jkylebass

🛑China officially reported no new deaths from the Wuhan Virus today…but come to think of it, China hasn’t officially reported any deaths from the Tiananmen Square incident as of yet. Maybe it’s just a lag in reporting?

Meanwhile, speculation is rife that the real infection numbers for Wuhan could be more than double that, according to two recent studies that estimated that the cumulative total for the city was already higher than 125,000 in February according to the WSJ. One study, by University of Hong Kong researchers, noted that China changed its criteria for diagnosis six times, including on Feb. 4, when it widened the testing pool considerably, leading to a surge in confirmed cases. If testing capabilities were available throughout the outbreak, and the Feb. 4 criteria had been applied throughout China’s crisis, 232,000 cases could have been detected in China by Feb. 20, with 127,000 cases in Wuhan alone, the researchers estimated. Additionally, as the WSJ also notes, experts and residents believe the official death toll excludes those who died at home or couldn’t be tested early on.

Epidemiologists, US intelligence sources and Wuhan residents suspect that Chinese authorities substantially undercounted infections and deaths over the past several months, especially in Wuhan, in part to boost President Xi Jinping’s image.

Some of the clearest indications that nothing is fixed comes from Wuhan itself: while some life, and traffic, have returned to Wuhan’s streets in recent days, most shops and restaurants are still closed. Local officials in full protective gear still guard entrances to residential neighborhoods, some of which are barricaded with metal fencing and awning.

Authorities who had cut back on testing after conditions improved have ramped them back up, testing 12,000 people a day on average the past two weeks—60% more than New York City. Nationwide testing numbers haven’t been made public, and even if they were, the results would show only whatever Beijing wants.

Until April 1, China didn’t publish figures for asymptomatic cases, which it defines as people who don’t yet show symptoms but have tested positive and could be infectious. Since then, Wuhan authorities have reported 194 new asymptomatic cases. They also said a total of 658 asymptomatic cases were under medical observation as of Monday. Health Times, a publication affiliated with the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily newspaper, quoted a senior doctor in Wuhan saying there could be 10,000 to 20,000 asymptomatic cases there, according to a survey done in the previous three days. The online articles was promptly deleted after it was published.

Most skeptical that the Wuhan crisis has been solved are the city’s own residents, who say they are skeptical in part because local authorities tried to cover up the scale of the problem early on. Police reprimanded several people who tried to issue warnings via social media and officials warned doctors not to speak publicly about the disease. Restrictions on people retrieving deceased relatives’ ashes from funeral homes ahead of last Saturday’s Tomb Sweeping festival, a day when many Chinese visit ancestors’ graves, also aroused suspicions. Officials banned people from observing Tomb Sweeping rituals until April 30, saying it was to avoid cemetery overcrowding.

Wuhan’s cemeteries and crematoriums have been heavily manned with police and other officials, with makeshift tents and desks erected outside to process grieving relatives. At the Biandanshan cemetery, Wuhan’s largest, an epidemic control official said there had been dozens of funerals there in recent days, a little more than normal, due to a backlog from the lockdown, when the cemetery was closed.

Such doubts, combined with the reports of new asymptomatic cases, are triggering fears of a potential second wave of infections that could undermine Beijing’s claim to have tamed the virus.

Yet despite the all too real possibility that Wuhan is a ticking timebomb, ready to unleash a second wave of coronavirus infections on the world – and this time with mutations, making any potential immunity from the first wave null and void – China is scrambling to show to the world just how successful it has been in fixing its own crisis, and Chinese authorities lifted the mass quarantine of Hubei province except for Wuhan, its capital, on March 25.

* * *

As for Wuhan, after 76 days in quarantine the city’s lockdown – as well as controls on outbound travel – have now been lifted, just after midnight in China with authorities encouraging resumption of business operations for this critical industrial hub.

 

Chinese police walk past high speed trains parked a depot in Wuhan, in central China’s Hubei Province. The central Chinese city of Wuhan, once the epicenter of the novel coronavirus outbreak, will resume outbound operation of passenger trains departing starting April 8, according to the local railway operator

Which means that despite the mounting skepticism about what the full extent of the disease was in ground zero, and whether it has even been contained, starting Wednesday morning people can now leave after presenting to the authorities a government-sanctioned phone app that indicates — based on their home addresses, recent travels and medical histories — whether they are contagion risks. Of course, since this is a city of 11 million, there is no possible way that the local authorities will be enable to enforce this “filter.”

The consequences – for China and the world – could be dire. Footage from state-run news outlets early Wednesday showed a rush of cars traveling through toll stations on the outskirts of Wuhan immediately after the restrictions were lifted.

Elizabeth Law 思敏

@lizzlaw_

Cars leaving Wuhan: officials tell us that in seven hours since the lockdown lifted, 970 passenger vehicles have left the city

Embedded video

China’s Global Times took pride in showing that on Wednesday morning an airplane departed from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport to Sanya in South China’s Hainan Province on Wed. It was the first flight leaving the airport after Wuhan’s 76-day lockdown.

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

A China Eastern airplane departs from Tianhe International Airport at 7:24 to Sanya in South China’s Hainan Province on Wed. It is the first flight leaving the airport after Wuhan’s 76-day lockdown.

Embedded video

CGTN

@CGTNOfficial

First train, plane leave as city ends lockdown https://bit.ly/3aYkEKo

View image on Twitter

But most terrifying is that, according to a state-run broadcaster, China’s national rail operator estimated that more than 55,000 people would leave Wuhan by train on Wednesday alone.

Emily Feng 冯哲芸

@EmilyZFeng

At Wuhan’s Hankou train station. One of the first trains is departing the city is to nearby Jinzhou now. Passengers on the train said they’d been looking forward to leaving, to reuniting with family outside, for weeks.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

Wuhan restarts tomorrow! High-speed trains in arrays are ready for departure, on Wed, from three train stations of after a 76-day lockdown. Wuhan will lift its outbound travel restrictions starting from Wed.

Embedded video

According to cp24.com, “tickets for trains out of Wuhan to cities across China already were advertised on electronic billboards, with the first train leaving for Beijing at 6:25 a.m. A line designated for passengers headed to the capital already was roped off.”

In preparation for the end of the lockdown, Party Secretary Wang Zhonglin, the city’s highest-ranking official, inspected the city’s airport and train stations Monday to ensure they were ready. The city must “enforce prevention while opening up, maintain safety and orderliness and the assurance of stability,” Wang said.

🔴 Global Politics@Globalpoliticss

🇨🇳➡️ Thousands of travellers flocks to catch trains departing from , early Wednesday as the lockdown is lifted so is the ban on traveling.

Embedded video

See 🔴 Global Politics’s other Tweets

In other words, the horses are fleeing the barn… and this time thousands of them could be carriers of the deadly coronavirus. What is scarier is that it is as if China wants to spread a new wave of infections around the globe.

To be sure, the city authorities clarified that while people who are healthy will be able to leave and enter Wuhan after Wednesday, most residential restrictions will remain in place. “Our city’s epidemic prevention and control situation is still grim,” read a notice from the city government published late Friday. Among the threats it cited were asymptomatic cases and people who retested as positive after recovering.

ABS-CBN News Channel

@ANCALERTS

People wait for the train at the Hankou Railway Station in Wuhan as travel restrictions for leaving the the epicenter of the global outbreak are lifted. Aly Song, Reuters

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Of course, in this city of 11 million people, isolating and locking down potential carriers, especially if they are asymptomatic, is practically impossible. Consider that in Wuhan’s Meihuachi neighborhood, one local official said four to five asymptomatic cases had been found over the weekend across three residential complexes nearby, all of which were back under lockdown as a result.

The question, of course, is how many other hundreds if not thousands of asymptomatic cases are there in Wuhan at this moment, and how many of them are about to jump in car, plane or train to unknown destination.

That question can not be answered, and neither can the question of why China rushed to reopen the coronavirus ground zero without the proper precautions in place. To more accurately assess the number of asymptomatic cases in China, authorities would either need to do tests—ideally blood tests to screen for antibodies—on the whole population, which would be prohibitively expensive, or on large, carefully chosen samples. China has said it had started antibody sampling to better understand infection rates, but even if it is doing what it says it is, this is nothing more than a game of large numbers.

Unfortunately, the numbers are certainly not in the world’s favor. Lin Xihong, a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, co-wrote a recent study that estimated Wuhan had a cumulative total of 125,959 cases by Feb. 18, and that at least 59% were “unascertained” on any given day, most likely because they had no symptoms or only mild ones.  Even crazier, China’s National Health Commission said 1,033 asymptomatic cases were being monitored as of Monday, but it still hasn’t provided figures or estimates for before April 1.

Another uncertainty is the total number of people China has tested nationwide. Wuhan has said it has performed 777,000 tests—enough to cover 7% of the city’s population and more than five times the level in Lombardy, Italy’s worst affected area.

But what about the remaining 93%?

Here epidemiologists rightfully worry that local officials may have deliberately scaled back testing to satisfy political demands to show they have the pandemic under control, and to shift blame for any rebound onto cases imported from abroad, which is ironic because all foreign cases can ultimately be traced back to a source in China… most likely one that at one point or another was located in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

In any event, now that potentially millions of infected, asymptomatic Wu Flu carriers are about to leave their containment zone and spread across China first, and then the world, a second wave is virtually assured. The extent of a second wave “will depend on what strategy will be implemented on detecting and isolating those cases without symptoms,” said Harvard professor Lin Xihong. “This is the million-dollar question.”

If only it were only a million: so far the damage to the global economy and the fiscal and monetary stimulus unleashed because of one Chinese virus has been in the tens of trillions… a number which may soon double or triple, as only one carrier needs to escape Wuhan to start a second wave of infections. Add a mutation that renders any existing coronavirus antibodies obsolete and China’s decision to reopen ground zero would have catastrophic consequences for the world.

And here is the punchline: as we said yesterday, the $64 trillion (roughly in line with global GDP) question is whether the coming “second reinfection wave” is going to be smaller or bigger, similar to the Spanish Flu pandemic. Why? Because deaths in the second wave of the Spanish Flu, which is closest to the Coronavirus pandemic in its progression dynamics, were 5x greater than those from the first.

Which in turn leads to one final question: if the second wave of infections that China is about to unleash on the world results in millions of deaths, at what point will China’s action be viewed as an act of war?

 

Over 80 bullet trains, at all three train stations in Wuhan, Hubei, stand ready to take passengers to unknown destinations on on Wednesday. Source: Tycho Zheng
end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The real estate market in the uK is a mess due to tenants not paying their rent which is causing huge problems for landlords.  Now UK property Mutual funds are suddenly “gated” as investors cannot get their money out.

(Corbishley/Wolf Street)

Most UK Property Mutual Funds Suddenly “Gated” As Lockdown Slams Retail Landlords & Their Investors

Authored by Nick Corbishley, via WOLF STREET,

Against this backdrop of unprecedented uncertainty, as tenants of shops, bars, restaurants and offices refuse to pay their rents en masse and almost all commercial property deals fall through, it’s all but impossible to put an accurate price on the current value of commercial real estate.

Virtually no one can escape the economic fallout from Covid-19. Not even the owners of commercial real estate, who benefited so handsomely from the central bank-engineered bailouts and property bubbles of the past decade, are immune.

In the UK, a decision by the government to grant retail tenants a three-month moratorium against eviction— an essential lifeline for many businesses that have seen their incomes dry up or drop dramatically as a direct result of the lockdown — has shifted the locus of immediate financial stress from tenants to property owners and their lenders.

The shuttered bars and restaurants in central London are a case in point. Early last week, they received a collective quarterly rent bill of around £500 million. But most of the bars and restaurants took advantage of the government’s moratorium: Instead of paying their rents, they decided to use the freed-up cash to try to weather the crisis. Now, it’s their landlords who are suddenly short of money and who may, as a result, struggle to pay their staff and meet fixed costs such as quarterly interest payments to lenders.

The same is happening across the retail landscape. Some commercial landlords received less than a third of their expected rent on Wednesday.

They include Intu, the embattled owner of dozens of semi-shuttered malls in the UK, as well as a handful in Spain, which revealed it had collected just 29% of expected first-quarter rent, even after offering a deferral and cutting service charges. That compares to 77% during the same period last year, which was already low.

Even before the virus crisis, the company was already on its last legs having endured wave after wave of retail restructurings, resulting in soaring vacancies and plunging property values. In mid-March, two weeks before the UK government initiated a generalized lockdown of the retail sector, Intu warned it was on the brink of bankruptcy after declaring losses of £2 billion for 2019 and a debt of £4.5 billion. Its shares are now worth just four pennies a piece, having tumbled by 96% over the past year.

Intu is now threatening to take legal action against non-paying tenants, saying it would not “bankroll” retailers that have “just decided they don’t want to pay their rent.” Many other retail landlords are reportedly doing the same, despite the fact that many of their tenants have had to halt the lion’s share, if not all, of their business activity, decimating their earnings for the foreseeable future. Even before this crisis hit, many of these retailers were already struggling in the face of slowing sales, high costs, low profitability and rising competition from online rivals.

Intu is also frantically lobbying the government to grant it access to the £330 billion of state-backed loans and guarantees the government has pledged to roll out in support of businesses affected by the lockdown. If the government caves, Intu may have a fighting chance of renegotiating the huge loans it owes to its lenders before the covenants on some of those loans are broken.

Given the company already failed spectacularly in its bid to raise fresh funds from investors earlier this year, the banks may end up deciding not to throw yet more bad money after bad, even if the government agrees to guarantee up to 80% of any new loans. After all, once the lockdown begins to be lifted, the UK’s bricks-and-mortar sector will be in an even more parlous state than it was before the crisis, as evidenced by department store Debenhams’ announcement Friday that it is filing for bankruptcy, less than a year after being rescued by lenders, which wiped out its stockholders.

There’s no way of knowing how many more retail chains and store will follow in Debenhams’ doomed footsteps. Against this backdrop of unprecedented uncertainty, as tenants of shops, bars, restaurants and offices refuse to pay their rents en masse and almost all commercial property deals fall through, it’s all but impossible to put an accurate price on the current value of commercial real estate.

This is the rationale being used to justify gating most of the UK’s large open-end property mutual funds, trapping over £20 billion of investor funds. The first wave of closures, in mid-March, affected around a dozen mutual funds that offer daily withdrawals to their (predominantly retail) investors, even though the funds’ core investment — offices, industrial property and retail parks — is extremely illiquid, often taking months to offload. Between them, these funds manage some £11 billion of assets, equivalent to around a third of the total assets under management in the UK’s property fund sector.

At the end of March, a fresh wave of gatings hit, as the £3.4 billion BlackRock UK Property, the £2.4 billion Schroder UK Real Estate funds and five institutional funds managed by Royal London and Legal & General, including one with assets of £3.4 billion, announced they were suspending redemptions for the foreseeable future. Unlike the earlier round of closures, these funds have quarterly or monthly redemptions and are typically held by institutional investors with a more long-term investment approach.

“The basic issue is the same: there’s fundamental uncertainty over the net asset value,” said independent property consultant John Forbes.

“That’s compounded if the rent income doesn’t arrive. That potentially makes the valuation more challenging.”

In times of extreme financial stress and uncertainty, it’s not unusual for real estate to be plagued by acute liquidity issues. In June 2016, in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, six commercial real estate (CRE) funds suspended redemptions. But never before have so many real estate funds shut the doors on so many real estate investors.

Those investors are likely to have to wait quite some time before they see any of their money again. Material uncertainty “is still going to be here on June 30. I’m incredibly doubtful that we’ll be through this on September 30. [The funds] can’t resume trading until then,” said Mr Forbes. If the recent experience of the gated (and eventually wound down) Woodford Equity Income fund is any indication, by that time the investors may suddenly find that the value of their investment has significantly shrunk.

*  *  *

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end

 

ITALY AND THE EU/CORONAVIRUS

The coronavirus is playing havoc to many nations but the one that is facing collapse is Italy. Gatestone explains why

(Gatestone Institute)

COVID-19 & The Looming Collapse Of Europe’s Single Currency

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

As the coronavirus unleashes economic shockwaves across Europe, the European single currency, the most visible symbol of European unification, is facing collapse.

The eurozone – a monetary union of 19 of the 27 Member States of the European Union that have adopted the euro as their common currency – is being buffeted not only by the prospect of a deep and long-lasting recession. Northern and Southern European countries are also feuding over possible financial support for Italy and Spain, the EU’s third- and fourth-largest economies, which have been especially hard hit by the coronavirus.

On March 13, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde dismissed calls by Italy for financial assistance to help it cope with the pandemic. After her comments rattled financial markets, Lagarde quickly reversed course and said that the ECB was “fully committed to avoid any fragmentation in a difficult moment for the euro area.” Italian President Sergio Mattarella replied that Italy had a right to expect solidarity from beyond its borders rather than obstacles.

On March 18, the ECB announced that, in an effort to calm sovereign debt markets, it would spend €750 billion ($810 billion) to purchase bonds issued by national governments. Lagarde tweeted: “Extraordinary times require extraordinary action. There are no limits to our commitment to the euro.” Larry Elliott, Economics Editor of the Guardian newspaper, wrote that the ECB’s announcement was evidence that, without a massive support package, the eurozone was in danger of collapse:

“The situation is immensely more dangerous — both economically and politically — than it was when spiraling Italian and Spanish bond yields prompted Mario Draghi’s [President of the European Central Bank between 2011 and 2019] “whatever it takes speech” in 2012. With people dying in their thousands, borders closing and activity collapsing, the entire European project is at risk.”

On March 26, EU leaders, during a virtual summit held by video conference, were unable to agree on an economic response to the coronavirus. A day earlier, nine eurozone countries — Belgium, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain — called for a common debt instrument, called “coronabonds,” to mitigate the damage caused by the coronavirus crisis. “We are all facing a symmetric external shock, for which no country bears responsibility, but whose negative consequences are endured by all,” they said in a letter.

Austria, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands, dubbed the eurozone’s “frugal four,” rejected the idea of issuing joint debt to finance economic recovery in Southern Europe. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that issuing joint debt would be “crossing the Rubicon” because it would turn the eurozone into a “transfer union” in a way that was not foreseen by the Maastricht Treaty, which established the European Union and laid the foundation for the single currency. “I cannot foresee any circumstance under which we will change our position,” he said.

Dutch Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra, in a letter to parliament, warned that coronabonds would introduce the threat of “moral hazard” by disincentivizing economic reform in debt-ridden Southern Europe. He also called on the European Commission, the EU’s administrative arm, to investigate why countries such as Italy and Spain have not made adequate economic reforms since the 2008 financial crisis.

A European diplomat quoted by the Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant described Hoekstra’s comments as a “serious insult” to Southern Europe. Another diplomat said that the comments were a “Dutch middle finger to the south.”

Southern European countries have the option of tapping funds from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the eurozone’s bailout fund, which lends money under strict conditions. Those countries are reluctant to use the ESM because they would be saddled with long term debt that would be hard to repay, and because the conditions would impinge on national sovereignty.

Writing for the Wall Street Journal, correspondent Marcus Walker explained the dynamic:

“Northern offers of loans with strings attached strike the south as punitive and inadequate. Southern clamor to issue joint bonds sound to the north like a demand to use its credit card….

“The specter of a divided eurozone remains. Unless the economic shock of lockdowns is quickly overcome, Italy and Spain are in danger of emerging from the coronavirus crisis as poorer countries. A renewed depression in Southern Europe would also be bad news for northern nations, whose industries and banks profit from the overall health of the region’s economy.”

In other words, if the coronavirus crisis eventually causes Italy to default on its debt, the reverberations will be felt across Europe — and the globe. Italy, with a GDP of nearly $2 trillion, is said to be “too big to fail, too big to bail.” Desmond Lachlan, a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, noted:

“Unlike Greece, Italy is too big an economy to fail for the euro to survive and too big and costly an economy for its European partners to save….

“In gauging Italy’s systemic importance to the global economy, one should bear in mind that its economy is approximately 10 times the size of that of Greece and that it is the eurozone’s third-largest economy.

“Equally important is the fact that after the United States and Japan, Italy has the world’s third-largest sovereign debt market with more than $2.5 trillion in outstanding government debt.

“It is difficult to conceive of a scenario where an Italian debt default would not trigger a European banking crisis. Were that indeed to occur, it must be expected to have global economic and financial market ramifications.”

The Associate Editor of the UK-based newspaper Independent, Sean O’Grady, wrote that the coronavirus crisis could catapult Italy into bankruptcy:

“Italy’s crisis is Europe’s. When Italy catches a cold, Europe will catch pneumonia. The euro cannot permit a major economy (Italy is the eurozone’s third-largest) to collapse in a disorderly mess.”

In Spain, which recently overtook Italy as the epicenter of the coronavirus in Europe, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez committed €200 billion ($215 billion) — 20% of the country’s GDP — to alleviate the economic and social consequences of the pandemic. When asked how he would pay for that amount of spending, Sánchez replied that he was counting on financial help from “Europe.”

Meanwhile, the coronavirus crisis is wreaking havoc across the eurozone, which suffered an unprecedented collapse in business activity in March 2020, according to IHS Markit, a London-based information provider. “Business sentiment about the year ahead has plunged to the gloomiest on record, suggesting policymakers’ efforts to date have failed to brighten the darkening picture,” it wrote. A survey by McKinsey & Company forecast that eurozone GDP will fall by 10.6% in 2020, and will not return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2024.

On April 6, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned that France is likely to see its deepest recession since the end of World War II this year because of the coronavirus crisis. “The worst growth figure in France since 1945 was in 2009, after the great financial crisis of 2008: -2.2%. We will probably be far beyond -2.2% this year,” Le Maire told the Senate Economic Affairs Committee. “This shows the extent of the economic shock we are facing,” he added.

France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy after Germany, imposed a nationwide stay-at-home order since March 17. The lockdown will last until at least April 15. One month of confinement would cost France around 3 points of GDP over a year, and two months of confinement around 6 points, according to French Statistics Agency INSEE.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned his fellow EU leaders that the coronavirus outbreak risked undoing the bloc’s central pillars if they failed to show solidarity in this crisis. “What’s at stake is the survival of the European project,” he said.

Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:

All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.”

Oliver Hartwich, a German economist and prominent commentator on European affairs who is the Executive Director of the Wellington-based think tank The New Zealand Initiative, summed up the European predicament:

Today, not a single European country is doing well which means there is limited willingness for European countries to come to each other’s aid. They are busy dealing with their own crises. Just witness how Italy has been left alone with its crisis by Europe and now rather gets its medical support from China….

An almighty economic earthquake is in the making. In a few weeks or months, several large European economies will require bailout and assistance packages. These will be several times larger than anything Europe has seen. Yet no country, central bank or institution will be eager or even able to provide them. Even the gargantuan sums on the table now will not be enough.

“Incidentally, forget about the International Monetary Fund. It was already stretched when it got involved with Greece last time. It cannot bail out all of Europe when the euro collapses.”

END
ITALY/NETHERLANDS, EUROGROUP/
The rescue is not going to happen:  Italy wants debt mutualization using coronabonds.  The Northern Eu nations will not have any of that.  They are stingy and very frugal and will not endanger their country by supporting the spend thrift Italy.
(zerohedge)

Eurogroup Fails To Agree On Coronavirus Stimulus After Feud Erupts Between Italy And Netherlands

Three things are guaranteed in life: death, taxes and the Eurogroup failing to reach an agreement.

At exactly 2am ET, the EURUSD tumbled in a flashback to the dark eurozone sovereign debt crisis days of 2010-2015, when news broke that European Union finance ministers had failed to agree in all-night talks on more support for their coronavirus-hit economies.

Shortly after Eurogroup president Mario Centeno tweeted that he was suspending the discussions until Thursday: “after 16 hours of discussions, we came close to a deal but we are not there yet. I suspended the Eurogroup and continue tomorrow, Thursday. My goal remains: A strong EU safety net against fallout of COVID-19 to shield workers, firms and countries & commit to a sizeable recovery plan.”

Mário Centeno

@mariofcenteno

After 16h of discussions we came close to a deal but we are not there yet.
I suspended the & continue tomorrow, thu.
My goal remains: A strong EU safety net against fallout of (to shield workers, firms &countries)& commit/ to a sizeable recovery plan

View image on Twitter

According to Reuters, diplomatic sources and officials said a feud between Italy and the Netherlands over what conditions should be attached to euro zone credit for governments fighting the pandemic was blocking progress on half a trillion euros worth of aid.

The finance ministers, who started talks at 1430 GMT on Tuesday and lasted all night with numerous breaks to allow for bilateral negotiations, are trying to agree a package of measures to help governments, companies and individuals.  They had hoped to agree on a half-trillion-euro program to cushion the economic slump and finance recovery from the pandemic, and turn a page on divisions that have marred relations as the bloc struggles with the outbreak.

But feuds emerged prominently again, one diplomatic source said: The Italians want a reference to debt mutualisation as a possible recovery instrument to be analysed more in the future. The Dutch say ‘no’.”

In other words, Italy was hoping to use the coronacrisis to finally get its long-sought goal of federalized, mutualized debt, and yet the Dutch (and somewhere not as loud behind them the Germans) said “nee.”

An official who participated in the talks said at around 0400 GMT on Wednesday The Hague was the only one refusing to endorse a text that the ministers were expected to agree on to get endorsement for a new set of economic measures from the bloc’s 27 national leaders.

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said on Twitter: “In this difficult hour Europe must stand together closely. Together with (French finance minister) Bruno Le Maire, I therefore call on all euro countries not to refuse to resolve these difficult financial issues and to facilitate a good compromise – for all citizens.”

Hardly a new topic of contention, issuing joint debt has been a battle line between economically ailing southern countries like Spain and Italy and the fiscally frugal north, led by Germany and the Netherlands, since the financial and euro zone crises began over a decade ago.

To support economies burdened by coronavirus lockdowns, the EU has already suspended state aid limits and allowed member states to inflate their debt to spend more. But Spain, France and Italy say that is not enough and have cast the discussion about more support as an existential test of solidarity that could make or break the EU.

Further proposals under discussions include credit lines from the euro zone bailout fund that would be worth up to 2% of a country’s economic output, or 240 billion euros in total. The conditions for gaining access to this money remain a sticking point. Granting the European Investment Bank 25 billion euros of extra guarantees so it can step up lending to companies by a further 200 billion euros is another option.

The third is support for the EU executive’s plan to raise 100 billion euros on the market against 25 billion euros of guarantees from all governments in the bloc to subsidise wages so that firms can cut working hours rather than sack people.

Creating an emergency support fund issuing grants for medical supplies and health care is another idea, as is a French proposal to create a joint EU solidarity fund to finance long-term recovery.

 

That said, if Europe does eventually agree, the combined pan-EU and national government responses could add up to the biggest fiscal support programme in the world, surpassing that of the United States, Reuters calculations showed. Below is a summary of what is eventually expected to be unveiled:

  • Unemployment scheme: The EU Commission plan to set up an instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) where loans up to EUR100bn can be granted to member states (which helps to contain job losses in the Eurozone vs the US).
  • Corporate support: The EIB announcement to set up a pan-European guarantee fund (EUR25bn proposal on top of 40bn support package announced last month). Question is how generous this will be.
  • No coronabonds. Commonly issued debt to exclusively fund COVID-19 measures is unlikely to be agreed on. While advocated by Spain, Italy and France, there is staunch opposition from other parts of the Eurogroup.
  • Open question on ESM credit lines: Loans from the European Stability Mechanism with loose conditionality attached are possible. Citi Rates Strategy notes that the ESM currently has unused lending capacities of EUR410bn but that a compromise is unlikely today. Southern European countries have generally opposed this, particularly the stigma attached and the conditionality.

While the EU is no stranger to protracted horse-trading, the discussion exposes rifts in the bloc and further strains its unity, already damaged by the euro zone crisis and the 2015-16 migration crisis, which partly contributed to Brexit.

So far the ministers, discussing via videoconference through the night with some of them dozing off at times, according to officials present, have been left frustrated. Le Maire was quoted as saying at one point during the night, according to one official who participated: “Shame on you, shame on Europe. Stop this clownesque show.”

 

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/IMF//

Iran pleads for a 5 billion dollar loan to fight the coronavirus

(zerohedge)

 

Iran Pleads For $5BN IMF Loan As Deaths Soar Past 4,000; US To Block Funds

Iran is desperately pleading for the International Monetary Fund to approve a $5 billion emergency loan to help the outbreak-ravaged country to survive.

“I urge international organizations to fulfill their duties… we are a member of the IMF… There should be no discrimination in giving loans,” President Hassan Rouhani said in televised remarks Wednesday.

He further slammed US sanctions on the Islamic Republic as “economic and medical terrorism”— given the US-led near total economic blockade of the country has severely hampered Tehran’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. There are currently over 64,500 confirmed cases and as of Wednesday this includes a grim milestone of surpassing 4,000 deaths after months ago Iran became the first epicenter outside China, followed by Italy.

 

Via Iranian Presidency 

Of course, the U.S. is expected to block the loan:

The U.S. plans to block Iran’s requested $5 billion emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund for funding Tehran says it needs to fight its coronavirus crisis.

Advocates for sanctions relief say that current sanctions will ultimately make the global response to the pandemic worse for populations in other countries as well, given without Iranian hospitals having necessary access to supplies and crucial medicines, the virus will continue to fester there even after the rest of the world pivots toward recovery.

But as the WSJ reports, Tehran is unlikely to see a single penny in IMF relief:

The IMF has said it is in talks with officials in Iran to determine its eligibility for the loan.

However, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the US – the IMF’s largest shareholder – planned to block the request.

It cited senior Trump administration officials as saying that Iran’s government had billions of dollars in bank accounts still at its disposal, and that the loan might be used to help its economy rather than on combating Covid-19 or fund terrorist operations.

In early March Iran’s Central Bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati first addressed a letter to the head of the IMF requesting the five billion dollars from the RFI emergency fund “to help our fight against the coronavirus”.

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

US administration gleefully takes pride in killing Iranians citizens on —our New Year.

The White House takes its “maximum pressure” to a new level of inhumanity with its utter contempt for human life.

Iran to US: Your policy will live in infamy. But Iran won’t break.

View image on Twitter

At that time Iran’s death toll was 500, but now stands at just over 4,000.

Iran has argued that it is “a dues-paying member of the IMF and has not had a loan in decades,” according to the assessment of Mohammad Marandi, professor of American Studies at Tehran University.

“As a country that has paid its dues and without any debt to the IMF, Iran is entitled to a loan to fight the coronavirus pandemic at the time when the US has weaponised the virus against Iran,” Marandi added.

6.Global Issues

This is scary: Scientists have discovered that the reinfection rate is much higher than expected..somehow antibodies are not surfacing once a patient has recovered from the virus

(zerohedge)

Coronavirus Cases Pass 1.4 Million As Scientists Discover Reinfection Risk For Patients Much Higher Than Expected: Live Updates

Update (0830ET): With one hand, Germany’s Department of Health is pushing an app that will rely on cellphone location data to track contacts of people who test positive. Meanwhile, the Foreign Ministry is taking action to restrict the use of the conferencing app Zoom over security concerns.

Meanwhile, Zoom just hired Alex Stamos, the former security chief at Facebook who spoke out against his former employer during that whole Internet privacy debacle, as it tries to rebuild its reputation before everybody

*    *    *

Though the coronavirus outbreak figures reported out of Europe yesterday were probably more mixed than health officials would have liked, there was, apparently, enough to keep the resurgence of optimism that has fueled market gains in recent days alive. While China blithely prepares to unleash its second wave on itself and the world in what seems like an almost deliberate act, the Washington Post reported overnight that the main epidemiological model being followed by the federal government has just revised down the need for ventilators, beds and other equipment as the world seems to have convinced itself that a lull is underway.

Across the US, chatter on social media about the need to get at least some of the shut-down economy back online has intensified in recent days, as political commentary as inspired heated discussions as opponents accuse Republicans and many regular Americans of callously placing the economy and their own self-interest above protecting society’s most vulnerable. Meanwhile, the global case total has surpassed 1.4 million, with 83k+ deaths.

But as JPM projected, and as was the case during SARS and other prior pandemics, even if the novel coronavirus does begin to recede heading into the summer, remember: this is only part one.

At this point, it’s not like anybody is going to snap their fingers and suddenly turn the clock back to Dec. 31, 2019. Many Americans – especially those at high risk – will likely cut down on leisure air travel, as pundits are already talking about the death of the “one-flight meeting”.

But as we begin to weigh the pros and cons, and the Trump Administration reportedly weighs a plan to reactivate parts of the economy and allowing some people to get back to work if they can demonstrate that they’re healthy, the SCMP late last night highlighted some new scientific evidence that is extremely disturbing.

As we explained above, by lifting restrictions on Wuhan, China is potentially unleashing hundreds, maybe even thousands, of asymptomatic carriers on the rest of the country. But scientists believe the ‘herd immunity’ that has supposedly been built up during the first wave should blunt the impact of ensuing waves somewhat. Well, unfortunately, it looks like that thesis needs to be reexamined.

Since the early days of the outbreak, we’ve seen reports about people being reinfected with the virus (though in some cases there were doubts about whether the virus ever really left).Well, now, a team of researchers at Fudan University in Shanghai has discovered that an alarmingly high number of recovered patients whom they’ve tested show low, or no, levels of the virus antibodies in their blood. That means a sizable chunk of those who are infected will be vulnerable to reinfection.

In other words, if these findings are confirmed, the hoped-for “herd immunity” that is supposed to help us get things back to normal in the time between now and however long it takes researchers to mass produce a vaccine simply isn’t going to materialize: Instead of diluting the density and acting as blockers for spread, many will be reinfected, and go on to spread the virus to others, all over again. It’s just the latest reason to worry that the second wave of the virus could be larger than the first.

Some countries are already seeing the first stirrings of a second wave: On Wednesday, Tokyo reported a record 144 new cases on Wednesday as Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s lockdown (which is legally toothless but has inspired most businesses to close nonetheless) took effect in Tokyo and six other districts across Japan. And now that the Tokyo Games have officially been suspended, the Olympic flame has been taken off public display in Japan. And it’s not clear when it will reappear again or where — or under what conditions.

But and China and Japan aren’t the only Asian nations fearful of a full-blown second wave: Hong Kong on Wednesday announced plans for an “unprecedented” $18 billion virus stimulus package to support Hong Kong’s rapid;y deteriorating economy, according to Bloomberg.

As the virus continues its woefully underreported spread across Africa – or so public health experts fear – Ethiopia announced on Wednesday that it’s joining a growing list of African nations – already including Botswana, Congo, Ivory Coast, Senegal, South Africa and others – by declaring a state of emergency over the virus. The country’s 110 million people have been relatively unscathed, reporting just 52 cases so far, though some fear that the country’s close ties to Beijing and commerce between the two nations means many more cases have gone unreported. This comes as the number of confirmed cases across Africa has finally passed 10k.

Iraq also extended the closure of its main border crossing with Iran as the ‘official’ death toll in that country passes 10k. Much to Trump’s delight, the decision will put added economic pressure on Tehran, as it will disrupt trade between the two nations, something upon which Iran’s sanctions-starved government greatly relies.

Certain progressive media outlets in the US will likely never forget that certain conservative pundits and even – to a much lesser degree – President Trump, Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders played down the coronavirus as the first cases were confirmed in the US. While President Trump likes to brag about his decision to shut down travel from China, in reality, that was a half-measure (he should have shut down travel from Europe, as certain senior advisors reportedly urged). And while they’re not wrong, they’re only telling part of the story. A lot of people in positions of power – including, as the Intercept notes, NYC’s Democratic mayor – either underestimated the outbreak, or have changed views on subjects like drugs, whether shutting down schools makes sense, whether a partial shutdown that preserves more of the economy might be a more appropriate response – the list goes on and on.

Going through this list, it appears to us that nobody is more guilty than the WHO, which is partly why President Trump is insisting that the US reexamine the WHO’s funding, and has mocked the WHO for ‘totally blowing it’.

Of course, anybody who has only just started paying attention in the past few weeks (ie most of America) probably doesn’t remember the WHO dragging its feet on the global threat and pandemic designations (those were two separate declarations), while also insisting that travel restrictions and border closures weren’t appropriate at a time when those decisions could have gone a long way toward suppressing the spread.

Because as the White House reportedly prepares a plan to get some healthy people back to work in the not too distant future, the WHO is now urging that countries considering a lifting of their lockdowns should probably reconsider (even as China prepares to send legions of infected Wuhan residents across its own country, and the world).

The WHO said Wednesday that “we have a long way to go” to defeat the pandemic, said Dr Hans Kluge, the WHO regional director for Europe, adding that now is “not the time to relax [lockdown] measures,” and all countries must “double and triple our collective efforts”. “We still have a long way to go,” he said. “The progress we have made so far in fighting the virus is extremely fragile.” Any relaxation of social distancing measures requires “very careful consideration,” he added. “We need to remain committed.”

His remarks were clearly directed at the West (after all, he was speaking in English), but would the WHO, which has come under fire for refusing to criticize Beijing, say the same about Wuhan?

If you, dear reader, happen to be a billionaire like Microsoft founder Bill Gates, or at least wealthy enough to perhaps be insulated from the vicissitudes of the combined economic and public health crises which have caused the economy to literally grind to a halt, then perhaps you don’t understand how bad things really are out there (after all, the stock market has really bounced back over these last few days). For those who still believe most Americans could survive a ten week total economic shutdown, the OECD would just like you to know: Most of the world is already officially in a deep recession. A leading indicator published by the Paris-based NGO showed its biggest drop on record.

Just in case you weren’t aware, the global economy is a giant dumpster fire right now. And while people with comfortable white collar jobs are shouting at everybody to “stay indoors!!!!”, there are millions of people are this country who are still waking up every day trying to figure out how they’re going to eat, or take care of other essential needs, in the middle of a lockdown. That doesn’t mean people should just flout the lockdown when they feel like it, it’s just a reminder that everybody deserves the benefit of the doubt.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

The oil deal is on the verge of collapse..  The USA is already showing a drop in usage of 2 million barrels per day, but OPEC wants more. This is doomed for failure and the oil price will collapse further tomorrow on an official no deal

(zerohedge)

Oil Deal On Verge Of Collapse As Russia Balks At Proposed US “Production Cut”

As oil traders look with dread and fear to tomorrow’s OPEC+ teleconference one day after crude oil tumbled amid speculation that the production cut standoff will not be resolved…

… there was a sliver of hope that oil prices may rebound after Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia, Russia and allied oil producers will agree to deep cuts to their crude output at talks this week but only if the United States and several others join in with curbs to help prop up prices that have been hammered by the coronavirus crisis.

However, in an attempt to have its cake and eat it too, the U.S. DOE said on Tuesday that U.S. output is already falling without government action, in line with the White House’s insistence that it would not intervene in the private markets. And as reported on Tuesday morning, super-major Exxon announced that it would slash capex by up to 30%, which would impact output by several hundred thousands barrels per day… but only in 2021 and onward. In other words, any organic decline would take place slowly, over the course of the next two years.

“With regards to media reports that OPEC+ will require the United States to make cuts in order to come to an agreement: The EIA report today demonstrates that there are already projected cuts of 2 (million bpd), without any intervention from the federal government,” the U.S. Energy Department said.

That is not enough for OPEC+ however, and certainly not Russia, which on Wednesday made clear that market-driven declines in oil production shouldn’t be considered as cuts intended to stabilize the market, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tells reporters on conference call.

“These are completely different cuts. You are comparing the overall demand drop with cuts to stabilize global markets. It’s like comparing length and width,” Peskov says in response to a question of whether Russia would accept for the U.S. to have only a market-driven drop in output as part of a deal to stabilize oil market

“These are different concepts, they cannot be equated. Tomorrow there will be an exchange of views among specialists.”

But not American “specialists”: sources said no one from the Trump Administration was expected to attend Thursday’s call, which means the call – whose sole purpose is to get the US to join the production cuts – will be moot.

Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh also indicated that OPEC+ now wants the US to actively cut production when he tweeted on Tuesday that “before any meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC there needs to be an agreement on production numbers for any country that will reduce production,” adding that the United States and Canada need to play a role in determining production cuts.

While Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of the group known as OPEC+ have expressed willingness to return to the bargaining table, they have made their response conditional upon actions by the United States and other countries that are not members of OPEC, and it now appears that the US is reluctant to shift away from a organic production cut. No agreement has yet been formalized.

OPEC+ is due to hold a video conference on Thursday at 1400 GMT, after U.S. President Donald Trump said last week that Riyadh and Moscow had agreed to cut an unprecedented 10 million to 15 million bpd, or about 10% to 15% of global supply. He has not committed to any actions by U.S. companies.

Then there is the elephant in the room, of course, that even a 10mmb/d production cut will not be nearly enough to balance an oil market where demand has plunged by more than 25mmb/d.

“The scale of this challenge is so large that OPEC+ cannot solve it,” said Jason Bordoff, director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and a former Obama administration official. “Only some and not all of the world’s producers have the willingness and ability to limit production.”

Finally, and at the same time as the US is being forced to join the cuts, Riyadh and Moscow are trying to overcome the rancor stemming from March’s talks, when a deal to extend production cuts fell apart. Since then, Saudi Arabia has been flooding the market with extra crude, and it has insisted it would no longer carry what it considered an unfair burden of output cuts.

***

So while any actual production cut deal appears unlikely if the US does not join in – and certainly if the US does not participate in the teleconference – here is a preview of what Wall Street expects from tomorrow’s meeting, courtesy of RanSquawk:

SCHEDULE: The delayed OPEC+ webinar on Thursday will arguably be the most important gathering of ministers to date, with countries outside OPEC+ also poised to potentially tune into the discussions, thus presenting scope for coordinated action. The meeting is due to commence at 15:00BST, with a presser to follow – all times tentative, OPEC+ pressers tend to be delayed. This will be followed by a G20 Energy Ministers’ meeting on Friday, expected to start at 13:00BST. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Norway, the UK, the US, and Trinidad & Tobago have also been invited to partake in Thursday’s meeting, although at pixel time, not all are confirmed to attend. Sources said no one from the Trump  Administration was expected to attend Thursday’s call. Saudi and Russia have called for other global producers – namely the US, Canada, and Mexico – to share the burden of cuts.

KEY PLAYERS

  • OVERALL RHETORIC: Russia and Saudi have blamed each other for the collapse in oil prices. The two sides agreed to discussions following US President Trump’s recent intervention but made it clear that any cuts will have to be “fair”, and a joint global effort.
  • SAUDI (12MLN BPD OUTPUT IN APRIL): The Kingdom is mulling an output cut to beneath 9mln BPD on the condition other oil members join in. A Saudi official said if there was no deal, “we will have some nice number of floating tankers going nowhere”.
  • RUSSIA (11.29MLN BPD OUTPUT IN MARCH): Moscow’s participation is highly contingent on the US, and is unlikely to agree to output cuts if the US does not join the effort; separate reports said Russian producers are ready for oil curbs on the same proviso. Indeed, the CEO of The Russian Direct Investment Fund was optimistic, stating that Riyadh and Moscow are  near an accord. The Kremlin has declined to signal Moscow’s position ahead of the meeting.
  • US (13MLN BPD OUTPUT AT END-MARCH): The US has leaned back on calls to commit to cuts. President Trump said he did not make concessions during talks with Saudi and Russia and has not agreed to a US domestic production cuts. Further, he said US producers have already cut back as a reaction to the market. Meanwhile, US independent oil producers reportedly have told OPEC that they will voluntarily cut output, but US oil majors worry about the antitrust issues around any  coordinated effort.

OTHER PRODUCERS

  • BRAZIL (3.06MLN BPD OUTPUT IN FEBRUARY): State-owned Petrobras said it will curtail production by 100k BPD, according to a statement in March.
  • CANADA (5.78MLN BPD OUTPUT IN FEBRUARY): Alberta’s Energy Minister stated that the country will take part in the talks and will “keep an open mind”. A senior government official downplayed any suggestions that the country will go along with further production cuts. NOTE: Alberta, like Texas in the US, has the regulatory framework to force producers to curb supply.
  • NORWAY (2.07MLN BPD OUTPUT IN FEBRUARY): Norwegian Oil Ministry stated that it would consider partaking as an observer if there was broad participation but said, at the time, that there are no ongoing talks with oil companies on cuts. For reference, the country produces less than 2% of global supply.

PROPOSED CUTS

  • DURATION OF CUTS: Delegates has said that current options being considered range from a 10mln BPD cut to no reduction at all, with a three-month agreement being considered, according to some reports. Some question whether a three-month deal would be sufficient to balance the market. The pact could be extended, but may face resistance from Russia and US, and could be highly contingent on market conditions at the time. Separate reports noted proposals for a year-long agreement.
  • TOUTED SCENARIOS: Two scenarios will reportedly be put forward: 1) OPEC+ would no longer bound by production restrictions, which would see a continuation of the current situation. 2) OPEC alongside Russia and other producers would implement joint 10mln BPD reductions through to the end of the year. A separate report touted a joint 10mln BPD cut which would see the involvement of the US, Canada, and Brazil. The cuts will be distributed as follows: Saudi would cut a minimum of 3mln BPD from current levels, Russia 1.5mln BPD, Non-Saudi Gulf 1.5mln BPD, US, Canada, and Brazil almost 2mln BPD with Texas at least 500k BPD.
  • BASELINE: It is unclear which production month will be benchmarked in any cuts. This set level could prove to be significant given Saudi’s output hike. OPEC sources said there is a rift between Moscow and Riyadh regarding which baseline to use, with latter calling for the current production environment to be used as the base line.

HOUSE CALLS

Analysts at Credit Suisse outline five potential outcomes from the meetings:

  • 1) NO OPEC+ DEAL (5%): Russia and Saudi talks will break down – Brent could be pushed lower to ~USD 20/bbl
  • 2) NO US DEAL (20%): If the US refuses to partake, Russia and Saudi will also ditch talks – Brent could be pushed lower to ~USD 20/bbl
  • 3) A “LARGE” DEAL (20%): around 15mln BPD cut from current levels supported by OPEC+, US and other producers for at least three months with possible extension – Brent could rise to around USD 35-40/bbl.
  • 4) A “SMALL” DEAL (35%): Immediate OPEC+ cuts of 12-13mln BPD; US offers mild reductions in Gulf of Mexico and Shale output and the purchase of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) – Brent could see USD 30-35/bbl.
  • 5) AN “EVEN SMALLER” DEAL (20%): US relies on natural output reductions and offers to purchase around 0.8-1.0mln BPD for the SPR. Brent could meander below USD 30/bbl with scope for a rise to ~USD 35/bbl should US production markedly decline naturally.

TARIFFS:

US President Trump on the weekend said he was considering slapping tariffs on oil imports, or even take other such measures, to protect the US energy sector from falling oil prices. For reference, the US imports of petroleum were around 9.1mln BPD in 2019, of which Saudi and Russian imports were just over 500k each.

G20 ENERGY MEETING:

The fallout from the OPEC+ meeting would set the stage for the G20 webinar on Friday. Energy Intel notes members outside OPEC+ will be asked pledge additional reductions, “over and above 10mln BPD”. A Senior Russian source noted that efforts to get the US involved in cuts will be on the agenda for Friday’s call. Desks remain sceptical a deal can be reached at this meeting. G20 members such as South Korea and Japan produce little oil, whilst others such as China, India, and the UK are more reliant on imports.

Following the meeting, Saudi Aramco, UAE’s ADNOC and Kuwait’s KPC are expected to release their OSPs for May.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0874 DOWN .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//coronavirus /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES / ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.91 UP 0.238 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2358   UP   0.0023  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4004 DOWN .0014 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 19 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0874 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 5.39 POINTS OR 0.19% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 282.92 POINTS OR 1.17%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,80%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 282.92 POINTS OR 1.17%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.39 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 80% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 403.06  POINTS OR 2.13%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1649.50

silver:$15.10-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.75% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.34 UP 4  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 100.08 UP 18 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.98% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.83//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,65 UP 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 82 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.96% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0856  DOWN     .0038 or 38 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.70 UP .031 OR YEN DOWN 3  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2392 UP .0055 POUND UP 55  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 28 basis points to 1.4044

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.06600    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0720  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.7753 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.75 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.34 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.11 UP 21  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 26.72  0.47%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 23.81 POINTS OR .23%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 4.48 POINTS 0.10%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 50.20 POINTS or 0.72%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 30.90 POINTS OR 0.18%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 24.57 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 32.18 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    75.49  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.08 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 8 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.31 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  26.29//

 

 

BRENT :  33.61

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.77..plus 5 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.37…plus 7 basis points.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0855 ( DOWN 38   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.87 UP .195 (YEN DOWN 20 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 100.16 UP 22 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2373 UP 38  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.7791

 

 

the Russian rouble 75.19   UP 0.38 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 38 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4025 DOWN 9 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.31%

 

The Dow closed UP 779.71 POINTS OR 3.44%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 203.64 POINTS OR 2.58%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  43.24 CLOSED DOWN 3.46

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.320%//libor dropping

libor/ois: 1.243

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Bounce On ‘Peak Virus’ Hope Despite World’s Deadliest Day Yet

After the deadliest virus day in the world yesterday, today started with optimistic comments by Fauci about a turning point and the total deaths likely be lower than predicted… only to be crushed by the deadliest day ever in UK, the deadliest day ever in New York and New Jersey, and Italy new cases re-accelerate… and the biggest plunge in consumer confidence ever… and the lowest home purchase mortgage applications.

Worst day yet…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Screw it – buy Mortimer buy… it appeared that the algos had already made their mind up as every dip was bought today back to yesterday’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The market ripped all day but once again – in the last hour there was some weakness again…

Notably The Dow and the S&P made lower highs today…

As Bespoke notes, the S&P 500’s close above 2684.88 today means we are in a new bull market, and each of the last three bull markets (starting 11/20/08, 3/9/09, and current) will have entered bull market territory within 12 or fewer trading days of the bear market low.

Another epic 3-day short-squeeze deja vu all over again…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX refuses to play along with the bullish pump…

Source: Bloomberg

Look over there!

Oil prices mirrored yesterday’s contract-roll/settlement puke by going vertically higher around 1430ET…

WTI settled around 6% higher because of the Algerian Oil Minister, the same day the EIA reported the largest ever inventory build…

Gold was flat on the day…

The Dollar was also flat on the day – roundtripping overnight gains to end unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were mixed today with the short-end outperforming once again (2Y -1bps, 30Y +7bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

While the moves have been of note, we remain rather range bound still…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos held on to their gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally,  despite every economist knowing what a bloodbath it was likely to be, economic data has still massively disappointed expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

And fun-durr-mentals don’t matter again…

Source: Bloomberg

And don’t forget its jobless claims day tomorrow (and Friday is closed in the US and Europe, and Europe is closed Monday).

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

FOMC

FOMC Minutes Signal “Profoundly Uncertain” Outlook, Feared Treasury Market Disfunction

Today’s minutes will provide detail on the Fed decisions announced on March 3 and March 15 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell convened emergency meetings as the scale of the pandemic and its risk to the U.S. economy became clear. The readout may also include their discussions of a slate of related actions that flowed from those two meetings.

Amusingly, just five weeks before the surprise rate cut on March 3, Powell and his colleagues had wrapped up their first meeting of the year on Jan. 29 with an air of cautious optimism.

Since that emergency rate-cut (and the bazooka of all bazookas), The Dow is down around 9% and somewhat interestingly, the dollar, gold, and the long-bond are all up around 4%…

Source: Bloomberg

And at the same time, the volume of beta that The Fed will inevitably cut rates below zero has also surged…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, today’s minutes may show just how dire a threat officials saw in those earliest moments and what spurred them to action.

The first move came on Feb. 28. With the S&P 500 Index tumbling 15% from its record high in just seven sessions and corporate credit spreads widening fast, Powell released an unscheduled statement at 2:30 p.m. pledging that Fed officials would “use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

The following Tuesday – March 3 – the Fed cut its benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point to a range of 1.00% to 1.25%.

“The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong,” the U.S. central bank said.

“However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity.”

One month later, the US economy was in a recession, or perhaps a depression.

That said, today’s minutes are unlikely to contain anything to spook markets, given that it has rolled-out measures to assuage market concerns, and will likely reiterate its pledge to support the financial system. Of most interest will be whether there was any discussion in the minutes of if, when and under what, the Fed would start buying stocks.

Despite all The Fed has done, financial conditions are extremely tight still…

Source: Bloomberg

THE REPORT

So just how freaked out were they over those two hectic weeks…

The short answer is “very”!

Policy makers saw risks pointing to the downside and warranting a “forceful” response, according to a record of their emergency gathering Sunday, March 15.

“All participants viewed the near-term U.S. economic outlook as having deteriorated sharply in recent weeks and as having become profoundly uncertain,” minutes published Wednesday of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed.

At the unscheduled meeting, officials announced that they would cut their benchmark interest rate to nearly zero and relaunch massive bond-buying programs to pump cash into the financial system, as they sought to shelter the U.S. economy from the coronavirus pandemic.

Fed notes “extremely large degree of uncertainty” on outlook

In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, most participants judged that it would be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 100 basis points, to 0 to ¼ percent. In discussing the reasons for such a decision, these participants pointed to a likely decline in economic activity in the near term re-lated to the effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the extremely large degree of uncertainty regarding how long and severe such a decline in activity would be.

Fed advocated “forceful” monetary response

In light of the sharply increased downside risks to the economic outlook posed by the global coronavirus outbreak, these participants noted that risk-management considerations pointed toward a forceful monetary policy response, with the majority favoring a 100 basis point cut that would bring the target range to its effective lower bound (ELB). With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, these participants judged that it would be ap-propriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent until policymakers were con-fident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals

Fed on the severe strain in bond markets:

Trading conditions across a range of markets were severely strained. In corporate bond markets, trading ac-tivity and liquidity were at very low levels, although not back to the low point reached in 2008. Market partici-pants expected that actions taken to slow the spread of the virus could have significant effects on the credit wor-thiness of certain borrowers, particularly those at the lower end of the credit spectrum. Market participants also increasingly pointed to concerns in other segments of the debt market. In securitized markets, including those for asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), primary market is-suance slowed, and secondary market trading had be-come less orderly, with money managers selling short-dated liquid products to meet investor redemptions.

Fed on Treasury Markets

In the Treasury market, following several consecutive days of deteriorating conditions, market participants re-ported an acute decline in market liquidity. A number of primary dealers found it especially difficult to make markets in off-the-run Treasury securities and reported that this segment of the market had ceased to function effectively. This disruption in intermediation was at-tributed, in part, to sales of off-the-run Treasury securi-ties and flight-to-quality flows into the most liquid, on-the-run Treasury securities

Fed on short-term funding markets

Conditions in short-term funding markets also deterio-rated sharply amid a decline in market liquidity and chal-lenges in dealer intermediation. Over recent days, the premium paid to obtain dollars through the foreign ex-change swap market increased sharply, and the volumes in term repurchase agreement (repo) markets dropped significantly. Issuance of commercial paper (CP) matur-ing beyond one week reportedly almost dried up at the end of the week before the meeting, and primary- and secondary-market liquidity for financial and nonfinancial CP was described as nearly nonexistent at a time when investor concern about issuer credit risk was rising.

Fed on stress in the housing market

…social distancing, by financial uncertainty—including difficulties that households and businesses would face in meeting mortgage or rental payments—and by volatility in the market for MBS. Participants stressed the major down-side risk that the spread of the virus might intensify in those areas of the country currently less affected, thereby sidelining many more U.S. workers and further damping purchases by consumers. Participants expressed con-cern that households with low incomes had less of a sav-ings buffer with which to meet expenses during the in-terruption to economic activity. This situation made those households more vulnerable to a downturn in the economy and tended to magnify the reduction in aggre-gate demand associated with the nation’s response to the pandemic.

On ZIRP

“With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, these participants judged that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent until policymakers were confident that the economy had weathered recent events…”

On NIRP:

A few participants also remarked that lowering the target range to the ELB could increase the likelihood that some market interest rates would turn negative, or foster investor expectations of negative policy rates. Such expectations would run counter to participants’ previously expressed views that they would prefer to use other monetary pol-icy tools to provide further accommodation at the ELB.

On Bank buybacks:

“Several participants commented that banks should be discouraged from repurchasing shares from, or paying dividends to, their equity holders.

Developing…

*  *  *

END

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

A must read…David Stockman tells us where we are heading economically with this virus attacking the globe

(David Stockman/ContraCorner)

Stockman: This Is Not Your Grandfather’s Recession…

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

Based on the shocking 6.6 million of new unemployment claims, we’d bet they’ll be some explosive political fireworks soon in this country about Covid-containment versus keeping the main street economy alive. There have now been an unprecedented, off-the charts 9.96 million new unemployment claims in the last two weeks.

For point of reference, it took fully 28 weeks to generate the same level of cumulative new claims after the beginning of the Great Recession. During that interval, the largest weekly number was 387,000 during the week of March 29, 2008.

Even when you scroll forward (not shown) to the worst week after the Lehman Bankruptcy meltdown commenced on September 15, the peak number was only 665,000 during the week of March 28, 2009. So today’s new claims number was 10X higher!

So, yes, some politically incorrect pundit is likely to note that there are now:

  • 47 jobless workers for every confirmed coronavirus case;
  • 320 jobless for every hospitalization; and
  • 2,112 jobless for every coronavirus death.

Moreover, it virtually certain that cumulative initial claims will hit 20 million before the end of April, thereby doubling the above ratios. That is to say, do they really want 100 jobless workers for every case of a bad winter flu?

Well, yes, it seems that our establishment betters can’t get rabid enough urging on a total shutdown of the US economy.

Indeed, the thinly disguised subtext in the whole daily MSM narrative for the last couple of days has been that the benighted governors of the Red States are not doing their part to order their economies into instant cardiac arrest. But it took the perennially obnoxious liberal columnist for the New York Times, David Leonhardt, to come right out and say it.

Thus, opined Leonhardt: Donald’s Trump’s minions have been putting the public health in grave danger.

Much of red America is finally going on lockdown.

After resisting the pleas of public health experts for days, the governors of Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi – all states won by President Trump in 2016 – announced yesterday that they will be ordering their residents to stay home, effective Friday.

The turnabout from Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, was especially stark….These new lockdowns are welcome, because they will help slow the virus. But they are also coming much later than they should have, A big reason that the virus has been recently spreading more rapidly in the United States than in Europe or Asia is the slow response from American political leaders.

Trump spent almost two months falsely claiming the virus was going away…Many Republican governors have chosen to echo him, DeSantis, for instance, acted as if he could stop the virus by merely keeping New Yorkers out of his state.

There you have it – a shrill dump of left-wing agitprop and lies that are coming front and center to the debate real soon. Namely, the charge that Trump and his GOP minions caused the coronavirus crisis – so now the regulatory machinery and fiscal resources of the state must be mobilized without limit to wrestle the monster to the ground.

Then again, by the statistics you might conclude that DeSantis has a point about pulling the welcome mat from New Yorkers. As of yesterday, nearly 62,000 Floridians have been tested, but the infection rate has been just 10.2% compared to New York’s 37%; and it’s infection rate per 100,000 population was just 29 compared to New York’s 389.

That’s right. The infection rate in New York is 13.4X higher than Florida’s, while New York’s hospitalization and death rates are 21X and 22X higher, respectively.

Yet this sanctimonious Big Apple brat has the gall to accuse the governor of Florida of being a Republican moron or even criminal.

The fact is, DeSantis was right not to go full retard shutdown. For crying out loud, the coronavirus death rate in Florida to date is just one-third of a person per 100,000 population. At some point the idea of quarantining the aged, infirm and vulnerable rather than shit-canning the entire economy might make more sense.

But as of the moment, the liberal commentariat and it Washington collaborators are on their high horse and won’t rest until they have intimidated the entire country into a heretofore unimaginable Economic Cardiac Arrest. In fact, you might as well call it the Anderson Cooper/Chris Cuomo Memorial Depression and be done with it.

After all, it’s the same old shtick. Namely, that the liberals’ unhinged case for plenary economic shutdown is allegedly driven by “science” and that anyone who dares question the fashionable prescriptions is some kind of antediluvian rube.

Of course, in many ways the Donald is exactly that – such as with respect to the entire economic, financial and monetary policy file. There his views are downright neanderthalish.

But that’s what makes this whole Covid-19 imbroglio so forebodingly dangerous. The MSM and Washington political class are turning it into the next phase of the RussiaGate/UkraineGate/Impeachment inquisition against the Donald; and the litmus test of choice is, effectively, shut-it-down-and-lock-them-up at home from coast-to-coast; and keep them there until the Donald’s Greatest Economy Ever is pounded to smithereens.

Ordinarily, the main street economy would have a fighting chance against that kind of ad hoc statist assault on production, which is now accelerating to a full gallop. That’s because the business community – large, small and in-between – would be descending on Washington in waves that would put even the Zulu army to shame.

But not this time. The fact is, we have an Ersatz Socialist and economic primitive in the Oval Office who has managed to club to death like a baby seal whatever was left of GOP fiscal, monetary and free market orthodoxy.

So the $2.2 trillion Everything Bailout (soon to be $4 trillion) was effectively a giant advance from Uncle Sam to hold one-and-all harmless for any lost ground occasioned by the shutdowns which are now sweeping across America like a prairie fire.

In general terms, UI and helicopter money will be keeping paychecks close to 100% of take home, while trillions of easy-peasy loans/grants to business will also cover paychecks (double dip?) for employees – working and not working – as well as most other cash outflows for utilities, overheads, insurance, loan service and the CEOs’ paychecks.

Yet when nearly everyone is held harmless, three very bad things are sure to happen. To wit:

  • The statist/Dem push to shutdown the Trumpified economy will face far less resistance from business and workers and thereby be far more prolonged;
  • The normal processes of free market adjustments including economizing, layoffs, price/wage/cost cuts, negotiated rent and other payment deferrals, closure of businesses and malinvestments that weren’t viable anyway will be drastically thwarted; and
  • Uncle Sam will end up taking on trillions of needlessly incurred debt in order to temporarily back-fill GDP that the country could readily do without and to prop up a zombified business sector that will be a long-term albatross on growth.

But in the interim, the eruption of statist intervention and fiscal profligacy will reach literally hysterical excesses. That’s because the economic contraction now upon us is nothing like your grandfather’s recessions, which were triggered by the Fed and the collapse of credit and stock market cycles.

By contrast, this one was being prepped by the Fed for years as it fostered egregious excesses of debt, speculation and hand-to-mouth fragility throughout the system. But it is actually being triggered by sudden shutdown edicts from governors, mayors and public health authorities – amplified by both prudent and hysterical precautionary actions being undertaken by the broad public.

It is therefore proceeding with warp speed, as today’s claims data dramatically illustrates. When placed in historical context, the reported 6.6 million of initial unemployment claims (thin red line on the right margin) filed thru last Saturday truly give the notion of being “off the charts” a wholly new definition.

And here is where 30-years of incessant monetary and fiscal intervention and “stimulus” will take its toll. That’s because America’s chattering classes, politicians and business leaders alike have been house-trained on the misbegotten assumption that capitalism has a death wish; and that once it goes into a contraction there is nothing stopping it from disappearing into an economic black-hole, save for the heroic interventions of the state and its central banking branch.

What is coming down the pike in terms of the “incoming data”, therefore, will generate sheer panic in the Imperial City and on Wall Street, too. Thus, as recently as February 19 when the stock market was 35% higher, the talking heads put the odds of recession at essentially zero. After two more weeks of the massive claims reported today, however, the BLS unemployment survey taken in mid-April is likely to find upwards of 15 million newly unemployed and a U-3 unemployment rate of 12-15%.

That will rattle their teeth to the bone on both ends of the Acela Corridor. After all, last time they went into an end-of-the world panic mode during the Great Recession, it took the U-3 rate 31 months from the cyclical low of 4.4% in March 2007 to reach the 10.0% peak in October 2009.

Likewise, the worst quarterly GDP SAAR during that downturn was 8.7% in Q4 2008, while Q2 2020 could hit 3X that rate at negative 25% or worse.

Indeed, the shocker will come on the first Friday of May when the monthly number of newly unemployed workers will be reported for April.

During the bottom of the Great Recession in February 2009, that number peaked at 840,000, but April’s gain could come in at 15X-20X that level.

So get set for a hideous hair-on-fire orgy of monetary and fiscal stimulus demands on both ends of the Acela Corridor, as if we have not gone off the deep-end already.

Indeed, when you add in the automatic stabilizer outlays to the $2.2 trillion Everything Bailout, the hemorrhage of Federal spending and borrowing will be damn near incalculable.

By the end of April, for instance, there will easily be 15 million continuing unemployment insurance claims: Even under pre-existing eligibilities and benefit levels (which were massively expanded by the Everything Bailout) the annualized run rate of outlays would rise from $28 billion in FY 2019 to upwards of $250 billion.

In short, this is merely not your grandfather’s recession; it’s actually a Bubble Finance era Doomsday Machine.

With the establishment media keeping the US economy on lockdown – and we mean that literally, as even Dr. Fauci is now saying there should be no relaxation of the economic freeze until there are zero new cases and zero deaths – and the Trumpified GOP keeping the spending machine and Fed printing press at full throttle until at least the November election, it is truly impossible to imagine the level of madness ahead.

The tragedy, of course, is that the blistering fiscal and financial calamity ahead is totally unnecessary. Public health measures to contain the virus until the summer heat kills it off could be far more targeted and less intrusive via a policy of protective isolation for the vulnerable populations, and maximum flexibility and personal protection (masks, gloves etc.) for the workers and participants in daily commerce.

end

This is risky:  Wall Street banks are already calling traders back to the office..greed trumps fear.

(zerohedge)

“We Remain Open” – Wall Street Banks Are Already Calling Traders Back To The Office As Greed Trumps Fear

Wall Street’s famously type-A culture has always prized those who sacrifice their own well-being – physical, emotional or otherwise – for the good of the firm.

Never before has this conviction been put to such a high-stakes test. Late last week, WSJ broke a story claiming 20 traders on a desk at JPM’s Manhattan headquarters had all been sickened after the bank asked traders to come into the headquarters on March 9, a day that will be remembered as one of the most brutal sessions in market history, which presumably netted the bank a major windfall in trading revenue (that day, the bank traded more equities than it ever did during a single day).

Because some of the WFH and back-up offices across the river were having technical difficulties, the bank had asked all of its traders to return to its Manhattan headquarters, despite widespread worries abut the virus.

Now, those traders will likely be celebrated by their colleagues once all of this over for refusing to be cowed by the corona.

While Larry Kudlow and Steven Mnuchin have promised that the administration won’t reopen the economy until it’s safe, it looks like the big banks and their trading desks simply can’t wait that long. With their “essential” employee designation making it easier to call them back, Bloomberg reports that more banks are asking employees to return to the office, or back-up emergency spaces, because trading desks simply can’t handle all the volume without all of their equipment handy.

One JPM trader in London said the bank never seemed to put his team’s health first; initially, they were crammed into a basement in a back-up building outside London with a bunch of back-office humps. Then, the humps were moved, but the traders still didn’t have enough space to social distance.

Understandably, the handling of the situation has led to something of a hit to moral, like a similar incident at Bank of America, where a trader was actually exposed. Some traders at Cantor Fitzgerald affiliate BGC Partners, a high-frequency trading firm, told BBG that management sent emails with conflicting messages.

Inside BGC Partners, an affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald, workers received a memo marked “important” last month notifying them that no government orders were stopping them from showing up. “We remain open,” the memo said. “Driving to the offices and using mass transit are permitted in order to travel to and from our office.” Some BGC employees privately complained they felt pressured to keep coming downtown — even as other memos laid out the option of working from home. A BGC spokesman declined to comment.

Though, to be fair, others said the firm acted responsibly by assigning skeleton crews to run trading floors at disaster recovery sites or the main office. Several traders shared stories about managers sending their entire desks to work from home after one worker got sick.

One member of a JPM sales team said management’s naming-and-shaming tactics were on full display in an email chain connecting 100 people at the bank as they sought to work out in-office scheduling for the ‘skeleton crews’.

One worker on the sales team noticed a colleague wasn’t on the list and asked where he’d be.

“Corona Town, U.S.A.,” the person wrote back. Then one of the bank’s credit-trading leaders, Nicholas Adragna, weighed in: “The trading desk will be in the office unless they have a medical condition with a dr’s note.”

More than 100 employees were on the message chain seen by Bloomberg, and some were horrified. It came soon after an outbreak of Covid-19 inside JPMorgan’s Madison Avenue headquarters, in which at least 16 people tested positive on a single trading floor. Some employees complain they’re getting conflicting messages from middle and senior managers about coming into offices, where billions of dollars of profit are at stake, and that they would rather follow the advice of government officials to hunker down at home.

Others described at-times intense pressure from managers for sick workers to continue working when they should be resting. Another banker said he kept working until his symptoms were too severe, and once he reached that point, managers gave him plenty of time off to recover.

The final press has been quick to bash the banks for prioritizing their own greed over employees’ well-being, not exactly new territory for Wall Street.

But here’s the thing: As we explained earlier,  with equity markets still seeing massive swings, many are worried about liquidity drying up with so many traders working from home. Many dealers working remotely don’t have the full capacity to transact. The result is wider spreads, less efficient price discovery and – sometimes – face-melting selloffs.

end
Workers are refusing to go to work as they do not want to risk their lives..others are asking for hazard pay to continue working
(zerohedge_

“I’d Rather Stay Unemployed Than Risk My Life” – Grocery Store Workers Strike As COVID-19 Deaths Soar

As we’ve been warning over the last several weeks, the beginning innings of social unrest in the Western world could be developing. Millions of people have just lost their jobs, the economy has crashed, and suicides and domestic violence are increasing, this is all the characteristics of a recession, if not a depression in the second quarter.

Last week, Amazon and Instacart workers kicked off strikes to demand safety equipment and better pay amid the virus pandemic that has left some of their colleagues in the hospital, infected with the deadly virus. Amazon employees walked out of a Staten Island warehouse on Monday, the second week in a row. We noted last week how strikes and protests would likely spread “to other businesses.”

And we were right, now workers at some Massachusetts grocery stores will protest on Tuesday morning to demand medical equipment and the need for hazard pay as their probabilities of contracting the virus are high.

Organizers told WCVB Boston that employees from Whole Foods, Stop & Shop, Trader Joes & Shaw are expected to join the rally, scheduled for 1100ET outside the Whole Foods at 348 Harrison Ave in Boston.

The organizers are requesting that employers provide workers with “hazard pay of time and half for the duration of the COVID-19 crisis.” During the protest, workers are expected to abide by Massachusetts’ social distancing rules and stand 6 feet apart from others.

The protest comes as major supermarket chains across the country are starting to report an increase in virus cases and deaths.

On Monday, a Trader Joe’s worker in Scarsdale, New York, an employee at a Giant store in Largo, Maryland., and two Walmart employees from the same Chicago-area store have just died in recent days after their exposure to COVID-19, the companies said on Monday.

Some experts are saying the rise of virus cases and deaths at supermarkets across the country is because companies did not adequately prepare workers for a public health crisis:

“One of the biggest mistakes supermarkets made early on was not allowing employees to wear masks and gloves the way they wanted to,” Supermarket analyst Phil Lempert said. “They’re starting to become proactive now, but it’s still going to be much tougher to hire hundreds of thousands of new workers. We’re going to start seeing people say, ‘I’ll just stay unemployed instead of risking my life for a temporary job.'”

Strikes and protests aren’t limited to an Amazon warehouse or Instant cart workers and or supermarkets, but now spreading to the fast-food industry.

McDonald’s workers in Los Angeles staged a strike on Monday, demanding face masks and hand sanitizer after an employee tested positive for the virus.

Bartolome Perez, 30, a cook at the McDonald’s, told Fox 11 Los Angeles that a fellow employee tested positive.

 “We’ve been pleading for protective equipment for more than a month now, but McDonald’s is putting profits ahead of our health,” Perez said. 

Perez claims that McDonald’s has yet to pay for any healthcare costs associated with testing employees. The restaurant has been shut down for sanitation.

Amazon and Instacart strikes last week have inspired the beginning innings of protests among low-income/low-wage workers, as it appears employees of Target’s delivery service Shipt will also strike on Tuesday.

And here’s some bad news that we outlined about the global COVID-19 infection curve on Monday, it appears the US is still in the exponential rise phase (acceleration), which means more people will get infected and die.

The evolution of the pandemic is social unrest, already developing with strikes and protests at major companies.

END
Lindsay Graham is pledging to cut WHO funding.  The WHO have always been siding with China
(zerohedge)

Graham Pledges To Cut WHO Funding After Trump Slams Coronavirus Response

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is backing President Trump’s decision to reassess US funding to the World Health Organization (WHO) in the next coronavirus appropriations bill unless the organization makes top-down changes to leadership.

I’m not going to support funding the WHO under its current leadership,” Graham told Fox News, adding “They’ve been deceptive, they’ve been slow, and they’ve been Chinese apologists. I don’t think they’re a good investment under the current leadership for the United States, and until they change their behavior and get new leadership, I think it’s in America’s best interest to withhold funding because they have failed miserably when it comes to the coronavirus.”

Acyn Torabi@Acyn

Lindsey Graham says he’s going to take the burden off the President and use his position on the appropriations subcommittee to eliminate any money for the WHO in the next appropriations bill

Embedded video

Graham’s comments follow President Trump’s condemnation of the WHO on Tuesday – when he repeatedly threatened to cut funding to the UN-linked body for being “very biased towards China” as well as 0its terrible response to COVID-19.

“We’re going to put a very powerful hold on it, and we’re going to see. It’s a great thing if it works, but when they call every shot wrong, that’s not good,” said Trump – only to later soften his tone and say he’s still considering the move.

The U.S. is the biggest contributor to the WHO’s budget in the world. Trump’s fiscal 2021 budget request proposed cutting funding $122 million to about $58 million.

The WHO has continually voiced warnings about the dangers of the novel coronavirus since it first appeared in Wuhan, China, last December. The organization declared that the virus’s outbreak was a public emergency of international concern in January and then declared it was a pandemic in mid-March.

But the organization said in early February that widespread travel bans were not necessary to prevent the outbreak. Trump on Tuesday accused the WHO of disagreeing with his decision to enforce travel restrictions on incoming flights from China. –The Hill

Last week Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) demanded the resignation of WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus for “helping Communist China cover up” the coronavirus outbreak which has blanketed the world.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

A major shift in the Dems. plan:  They plan to fight Trump over his small business funding expansion.

(zerohedge)

In ‘Major Shift,’ Dems Plan To Fight Trump Over Small Business Funding Expansion, ‘Pt. 4’ Stimulus Plan

For hundreds of thousands of small business owners, the early days of the ‘Paycheck Protection Program’ – the $350 billion pool of federal money that the big banks are doling out in low-interest (but not as low as it could have been), essentially risk-free, loans – were marked by frustration, exhaustion and dread, as loan applicants were denied, or told to apply at another bank (one where they had a “lending relationship…as if the Greek immigrant who owns your local diner has a revolving credit line with Goldman).

And even once applications were in, the system was instantly overwhelmed, and it quickly became clear that the amount of money that would be needed would be far more than Congress had allotted (applications received via Bank of America alone during the first couple of days amounts to more than $32 billion in liquidity, roughly 10% of the entire program total).

With both Republicans and Democrats sending signals about a fourth coronavirus relief bill, the administration is once again inexplicably producing what appear to be lowball numbers (the only reason we can see is that they’re once again being influenced by Mark Meadows and the Freedom Caucus types, even though Trump himself has said his reelection is reliant on how he handles this, and should be throwing money at this problem). Yesterday, reports claimed they were seeking a $200-$250 billion to top off the ‘PPP’.

Now, Politic reports that the Democrats have shifted gear, when in reality it looks like they’ve simply laid their cards on the table: For Pt. 4, Pelosi and Schumer want Trump to boost the small biz money to half a trillion, while committing more money to hospitals, states and SNAP benefits.

Per Politico, this is setting the country up for another battle over the contents of the bill.

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

NEW … PELOSI AND SCHUMER GO BIG … The dem ldrs say they want

— 100 bn for hospitals
— 150bn for state and locals
— 15% more in SNAP benefits
— of the 250bn, they want 125bn targeted for farmers, family, women, minority, vet-owned biz in rural, tribal, suburban and urban areas

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

This is a BIG SHIFT from where Dems were yesterday, and signals issues for getting the straight 250bn in lending TRUMP ADMIN was aiming for this week

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

In sum, DEMS upping from just 250b in small biz relief to at least a half-trillion dollar bill.

Will we see the same swings in US stocks this time around?

END
Bernie suspends his campaign
(zerohedge0

 

As Sanders Quits, Trump Tells ‘Bernie Bros’ To Vote Republican After Another “Crooked Hillary Fiasco”

Update (1155ET): It did not take President Trump long to chime in via Twitter.

“Bernie Sanders is OUT! Thank you to Elizabeth Warren. If not for her, Bernie would have won almost every state on Super Tuesday! “

Then Trump went further:

“This ended just like the Democrats & the DNC wanted, same as the Crooked Hillary fiasco.”

Which led him to suggest:

“The Bernie people should come to the Republican Party, TRADE!”

Will they?

*  *  *

Sen. Bernie Sanders has suspended his campaign, according to a statement from the Vermont Senator.

“I wanted to just let everyone know that in a half hour I will be publicly announcing the suspension of our campaign. needless to say this is a very difficult and painful decision for me.”

“There is no alternative”

That’s right – it’s for real this time…last time Sanders purportedly suspended his campaign, the reports were immediately denied, and it was later determined that the announcement was due to a wire service error.

The decision comes a day after the Wisconsin Primary, which went ahead despite an attempt by Gov. Tony Evers to delay the vote until June that was quashed by the state’s Supreme Court (despite the fact that more than a dozen other states have delayed votes since the COVID-19 crisis began).

Bernie’s departure from the race makes Biden the presumptive nominee, and will save a lot of people the trouble of voting in the remaining primaries, potentially saving lives from COVID-19.

At this point, Biden has a solid lead over Sanders, and the momentum that his campaign had shown just a few months ago has been completely squandered.

And with the coronavirus now the major issue, Biden can relax at home instead of beating the bushes for votes in swing states across the country since the only thing that matters now is whether Trump can get the economy open again by June.

Now Bernie can enjoy some well-deserved “me time” after spending the last two years battling for the proletariat: the Senate is currently suspended, though they might be called on to vote once the next coronavirus installment is ready.

All told, Bernie Sanders will still be remembered as an anti-establishment legend who almost single-handedly revived the passion for socialism among white guilt-ridden middle class college students and recent grads across the country. He went from long-shot outsider whose quiet campaign announcement in the summer of 2015 garnered little attention at the time, before a groundswell of public support helped make him a serious threat to Clinton.

The former Secretary of State clearly still holds a grudge for the embarrssment she suffered at his hands.

With Bernie out, the Dems can now go ahead and cancel their delayed convention (sorry, Milwaukee!), even though Trump has said he opposes the idea of cancelling the Republicans’ convention in Charlotte.

Now all of Bernies’ supporters’ parents can breath easy, knowing that they will be safe (hopefully) from confiscatory tax rates. Now if only junior would stop it with this silly “social organizing” obsession and finish those law school apps..

With Bernie gone, with his ‘political revolution’ fade, too? While his supporters are extremely vocal on social media, the failure of left-wing media orgs (most recently the Outline, which folded this week), Sanders’ primary losses, and the failure of left-wing candidates to win primaries against more moderate foes, even in places like Queens, which should be friendly territory.

And now stocks rally as the threat of socialism is defeated.

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

Markets rally as the threat of socialism has been averted.

Now let’s return to our regular program of Fed bailouts, stimulus packages, $3.5 trillion deficits and free money for everyone. https://twitter.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1247907692255027200 

Jennifer Jacobs

@JenniferJJacobs

BERNIE SANDERS is suspending his presidential campaign, per @tylerpager

217 people are talking about this

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin…Trump is looking at how parts of US economy can be reopen –  “There are parts of the country, like New York, where obviously this is very, very concerning. There are other parts of the country where it’s not.”… https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mnuchin-us-economy-trump-reopen-coronavirus

ESMs and stocks decline smartly after the NYSE open.  Traders were eager to take profits.  Perhaps there was a pump (during European trading) and dump (to dumb buying on the NYSE open) operation.

Cuomo might have contributed to the morning decline in the US when he released mixed Covid-19 stats at his daily briefing.  Deaths jumped 731 on Monday, the biggest daily increase.  But new infections were 8,147, the 3rd straight day below the 10,841 peak from last week. ICU admissions cratered to 89 from 125; they were 395 three days prior.   https://twitter.com/caetuscap/status/1247541594439315459/photo/1

@AlexBerenson: Great new NY state data: (hospitalizations tend to rise some on Mondays, but the trend is still clear). Net intubations rose by less than 100, down 80% since Friday! A fantastic day for reality, a terrible day for Team Apocalypse.   https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1247559261623848967

ESMs and stocks rebounded quickly during Cuomo’s daily briefing.  Algos and some traders probably panicked on the higher deaths in NY.  Then better data reversed the decline.

@business: New York State Department of Health approved anti-body testing. If FDA approves the test, the state can begin bring it to scale, Cuomo says

Oil tumbled as much as 8% on Tuesday due to concern that the OPEC+ talks on Thursday will not produce a large enough production cut to keep oil prices buoyant.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-edges-higher-producers-move-005504242.html

Oil Companies Warn Kansas City Fed of Widespread Insolvencies

Energy companies surveyed during the second half of March said they expect just 61% of firms to remain solvent this year if West Texas Intermediate crude stays at $30… The oilfield is generally highly leveraged and these commodity prices will not sustain the bulk of firms in the industry,” one unidentified respondent said… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-companies-warn-kansas-city-175102007.html

@stevenmnuchin1: At the direction of President @realDonaldTrump, I’ve spoken with @SenateMajLdr, @SenSchumer, @SpeakerPelosi, and @GOPLeader to secure an additional $250 billion[$350B initially] for the PPP Loan program to make sure small businesses get the money they need!

Mnuchin seeks $250 billion more in small business aid, as Senate vote is planned for Thursday

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/mnuchin-seeks-250-billion-more-in-small-business-aid-as-senate-vote-is-planned-for-thursday.html

@realDonaldTrump:The W.H.O. really blew it. For some reason, funded largely by the United States, yet very China centric. We will be giving that a good look. Fortunately I rejected their advice on keeping our borders open to China early on. Why did they give us such a faulty recommendation?

Xinhua: US private sector donates 2M masks to China to fight coronavirus   Feb. 15, 2020

The effort was co-organized by the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations (NCUSCR) and the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, according to the USCBC…

http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-02/15/content_75707674.htm

Cameron Kyle-Sidell, MD @cameronks: COVID does not appear to be a pneumonia, instead resembles something similiar to high altitude sickness. We are treating the wrong disease.  Those not in the medical field, please spread word of your experience… The vents protocols must be changed!!

Covid-19 had us all fooled, but now we might have finally found its secret.

A mountain of anecdotal evidence has come out of NYC, Italy, Spain, etc. about COVID-19 and characteristics of patients who get seriously ill… There is no ‘pneumonia’ nor ARDS… Ventilators are not only the wrong solution, but high pressure intubation can actually wind up causing more damage…

The past 48 hours or so have seen a huge revelation: COVID-19 causes prolonged and progressive hypoxia (starving your body of oxygen) by binding to the heme groups in hemoglobin in your red blood cells. People are simply desaturating (losing o2 in their blood), and that’s what eventually leads to organ failures that kill them, not any form of ARDS or pneumonia. All the damage to the lungs you see in CT scans are from the release of oxidative iron from the hemes

     The only way to even try to keep them going is max oxygen, even a hyperbaric chamber if one is available on 100% oxygen at multiple atmospheres of pressure…

How does chloroquine work? Same way as it does for malaria. You see, malaria is this little parasite that enters the red blood cells and starts eating hemoglobin as its food source. The reason chloroquine works for malaria is the same reason it works for COVID-19…The same mechanism that stops malaria from getting its hands on hemoglobin and gobbling it up seems to do the same to COVID-19 (essentially little snippets of DNA in an envelope) from binding to it. On top of that, Hydroxychloroquine (an advanced descendant of regular old chloroquine) lowers the pH which can interfere with the replication of the virus…  https://archive.is/ONUmi#selection-347.0-347.740

@DailyCaller: Dr. Birx [last night] says that anyone who dies with coronavirus, regardless of any underlying health condition, is being counted as a death from coronavirus.  “We’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality.”

CDC says diabetes, lung disease, heart disease and smoking may increase risk of severe coronavirus illness – About 78% of ICU patients and 71% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients had one or more reported underlying health conditions, the CDC said

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/cdc-says-diabetes-lung-disease-heart-disease-and-smoking-may-increase-risk-of-severe-coronavirus-illness.html

Black people are overwhelmingly dying from coronavirus in cities across the US

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/07/who-dying-coronavirus-more-black-people-die-major-cities/296132300

ohnson listened to his scientists about coronavirus – but they were slow to sound the alarm

The scientists whose advice guided Downing Street did not clearly signal their worsening fears to the public or the government. Until March 12, the risk level, set by the government’s top medical advisers on the recommendation of the scientists, remained at “moderate,” suggesting only the possibility of a wider outbreak…Interviews and records published so far suggest that the scientific committees that advised Johnson didn’t study, until mid-March, the option of the kind of stringent lockdown adopted early on in China, where the disease arose in December, and then followed by much of Europe and finally by Britain itself. The scientists’ reasoning: Britons, many of them assumed, simply wouldn’t accept such restrictions.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUKKBN21P1X8

A reporter asked Trump about oil.  DJT asked the reporter to give him the price.  The reporter said, “I’m not sure, to be honest.”  Trump: “How can you ask a question when you don’t know the price?

@realDonaldTrump: Why didn’t the I.G., who spent 8 years with the Obama Administration (Did she Report on the failed H1N1 Swine Flu debacle where 17,000 people died?), want to talk to the Admirals, Generals, V.P. & others in charge, before doing her report. Another Fake Dossier!

@ChanelRion: At the White House, I asked about Chinese Propaganda peddled by press in the White House… WHCA members had a meltdown. So they removed OAN from their little chair club. China Propagandists Phoenix TV has a seat in WHCA’s little chair club. [WHCA sides with China over OAN]

Trump Asked a Reporter If She Was Working For China… She Is.  The Hong Kong/Cayman Islands based Phoenix Media is actually owned in large part by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and by a former CCP propaganda office…   https://thenationalpulse.com/news/trump-reporter-china/

Yet another reason to ignore Hollywood ‘experts’: Whoopi Goldberg mistakenly touts Dr. Jill Biden for surgeon general: ‘She’s a hell of a doctor’ – Fox  [Jill Biden is a teacher with a PhD in education]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/whoopi-goldberg-jill-biden-doctor-surgeon-general

Colorado father, 33, is handcuffed in front of his six-year-old daughter for breaking social distancing guidelines by playing tee-ball with his wife and kid in an empty park

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196337/Colorado-man-handcuffed-playing-tee-ball-wife-kid-park.html

If you think the populace was irate at the 2008-2009 crisis and the ensuing bailout, the coming outrage against the Nanny State and oppressive regional regimes could be far worse.

END

we will close tonight with this great offering courtesy of Craig Hemke/Greg Hunter

Disorderly Price Increases Coming for Gold & Silver – Craig Hemke

By Greg Hunter On April 8, 2020

Financial writer and precious metals expert Craig Hemke says high demand coupled with low supply will unlock the price of precious metals. Hemke says, “Look, the system is a total fraud. This pricing scheme was devised in 1974 as a way to diffuse supply. It was to make supply appear more readily available. . . .   So, now it’s finally crumbling because people are finally figuring out it’s a scam. It’s a confidence game. You may think you own gold . . . but what you own is just a promise. . . . So, now they are being called on the carpet to try to supply gold. . . . When the day finally comes that this pricing scheme is shattered and 50 people show up to take possession of the same ounce of gold . . . that’s when we find out what the true price of gold is.”

What’s driving the demand for investors to get their hands on physical gold or silver? Look no further than Fed President Neel Kashkari who recently bragged on the TV show 60 Minutes about “an infinite amount of cash in the Federal Reserve. We will do whatever we need to do . . .” to basically save the banking system and the economy from the virus chaos gripping the nation. Hemke contends, “Since this QE to infinity program began Monday, March 23, the S&P is up something like 17%. . . . Fundamentally, there is terrible stuff, but that doesn’t mean the stock market is going to go down because of all of this cash being created, and it’s going into the stock market and everything else. So, when I tell you the stock market is up 17%, it should be no surprise, but gold is also up 14% and silver is up 25% in the last 14 days. That is going to continue. . . . Central banks will always print cash to stop a deflationary spiral. Instead, in an inflationary spiral, currencies will be devalued and gold and silver will go higher.”

Hemke points out the life cycle of any fiat money creation system always ends up going vertical on a chart. Hemke explains, “You’ve got to constantly keep creating money to service all your existing debts. That’s what this system is, and now we are getting to the exponential phase of it. Just like the Covid virus is now getting to the exponential phase. . . . . It’s the same thing with debt. It’s growing exponentially, so the cash needed to service that debt needs to grow exponentially.”

In closing, Hemke says, “Gold has already made new highs in all other currencies except the dollar, but that’s coming. . . . Gradually, over a period of months, gold is going to go to $2,500 per ounce, and that may be orderly, but there will be a time where it will be disorderly.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with gold and silver expert Craig Hemke, creator of TFMetalsReport.com.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with gold and silver expert Craig Hemke, creator of TFMetalsReport.com.

-END-

-END-

World economic news:

Well that is all for today

To all our Jewish friends out there, a very happy Passover holiday week

I will see you THURSDAY night.

 

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