APRIL 14A//GOLD UP $23.55 TO $1737.00 (LONDON SPOT)//SILVER UP 51 CENTS TO $15.80//COMEX GOLD STANDING IN APRIL: 91 TONNES//NO 4 GC CONTRACTS PURCHASED/ASSIGNED//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES FROM AROUND THE GLOBE///FIRE INSIDE THE CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR SITE: VERY DANGEROUS//OIL FALLS ON IMF LOWERING GUIDANCE AND SAUDI ARABIA LAUNCHING A NEW PRICE WAR WITH INCREASED DISCOUNTS/SENATOR HAWLEY INTRODUCES A BILL TO STRIP AWAY CHINA’S IMMUNITY WITH RESPECT TO THE CORONAVIRUS AFFAIR///ALASDAIR MACLEOD..A MUST VIEW INTERVIEW//

GOLD:$1737.00  UP $23.55   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

Silver:$15.80//UP $.51  London spot price

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1728.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $15.75//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $1750.30

MAY COMEX GOLD:  1756.00 1:30 PM

JUNE GOLD:  $1769.70  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $32.70

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER APRIL COMEX CLOSE: 16.07/

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $1613…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY:  33 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 140/738

ISSUED: 333

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 04/13/2020 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 04/13/2020
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:22:08
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,744.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/13/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 04/15/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
132 C SG AMERICAS 2 21
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 11
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 541
661 C JP MORGAN 333 140
686 C INTL FCSTONE 9 9
690 C ABN AMRO 327 11
737 C ADVANTAGE 20 10
800 C MAREX SPEC 12 3
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 1
905 C ADM 24 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 738 738
MONTH TO DATE: 28,858

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 738 NOTICE(S) FOR 73,800 OZ (2.295 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  28,858 NOTICES FOR 2,885,800 OZ  (89.76 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 801 for 4,005,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $6825 DOWN  11  

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $6893 UP $64

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $23.55: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

 

WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 15.51 TONNES (PAPER TONNES/NOT REAL STUFF)

 

GLD: 1009.70 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP  51 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

A HUGE DEPOSIT OF SILVER WAS ADDED TO OUR SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT: 6.155 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 408.536  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 389 CONTRACTS FROM 139,780 UP TO 140,169 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR STRONG 21 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A CONSIDERABLE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ALONG WITH A STRONG GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING. WE HAD A  STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1222 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 791 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  791 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 791 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 791 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.955 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 21 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.125  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 21 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE TOTALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET GAIN OF 1180 CONTRACTS OR 5.900 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER JUDGING BY THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MAY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

9564 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 9564 CONTRACTS) OR 47.820 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1196 CONTRACTS OR 5.977 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 47.820 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 6.83% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          941.30 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR                   47.820 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 389, DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE $0.21 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /MONDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 791 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1180 CONTRACTS (DESPITE OUR 21 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 791 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 389 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 21 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.29 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY AS WELL AS A GOOD INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING//AMOUNT STANDING!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7005 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.2% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  NIL OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.125 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2,910 CONTRACTS TO 491,828 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG COMEX GAIN IN PRICE  OF $27.65 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD NO ISSUANCE OF OUR NEW 4 GC CONTRACT

 

WE GAINED A GOOD 5871 CONTRACTS  (18.26 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2971 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 2971.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2971.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 491,828. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5,871 CONTRACTS: 2,910 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2961 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5871 CONTRACTS OR 18.26 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF $27.65 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT HUGE GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 18.26 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (ROSE $27.65). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC ISSUANCE:  ZERO

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD  A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2971) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR GAIN IN COMEX OI  (2,961 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5,871 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A MONSTROUS INCREASE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT HUGE GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 44,802 CONTRACTS OR 4,480,200 oz OR 139.35 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5600 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 139.35 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 139.35/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.92% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2462.15  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

 

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               139.35  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 389 CONTRACTS FROM 139,780 UP TO 140,169 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 791 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 791; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 791 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE SMALL COMEX OI GAIN  OF 389 CONTRACTS TO THE 791 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 1180 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  5.900 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ//APRIL 4.125 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 21 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 791 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 44.24 POINTS OR 1.59%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 135.07 POINTS OR 0.56%   /The Nikkei closed UP 595.41 POINTS OR 3.13%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.89%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0573 /Oil DOWN TO 21.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 31.50 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0573 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0587 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 2,910 CONTRACTS TO 491,828 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS FAIR COMEX OI GAIN WAS SET WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $27.65 IN GOLD PRICING //MONDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (2961 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH THAT HUGE STANDING  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 5871 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD ZERO 4- GC CONTRACT ISSUANCE

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2961 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 2961 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2961 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  5871 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2961 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED 2,961 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERUNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE BY $27.65). THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 18.26 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 5871 CONTRACTS OR 587,100 OZ OR 18.26 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  491,828 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.18 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1529 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1529/2200 OR 69.50% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 228,993 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY180,184 contracts//

APRIL 14

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
257.208  oz
8 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 48,220.459 oz

Brinks

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

211,570.73

OZ

BRINKS

MALCA

INCL. 5000 KILOBARS

MALCA

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
738 notice(s)
 73800 OZ
(2.295 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
402 contracts
(40200 oz)
1.25 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
28,858 notices
2,885800 OZ
89.76 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

i ) We had 1 deposits into the dealer

i) Into Dealer Brinks: 48,220.459 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 48,220.459  oz

total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Brinks:  50,830.731 oz

ii) Into Malca:  160,740.000 oz  (5,000 kilobars)// a phony entry

 

 

 

total deposits: 211,570.73   oz

 

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  1670.755 oz (5 kilobars)

ii) Out of Int Delaware; 96.455  (3 kilobars)

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  257.21   oz

We had 3  kilo transactions

 

We had zero  4 KC bar transaction

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 2

customer up to the dealer

HSBC: 64,052.514 oz was adjusted up to the dealer from the customer account

Brinks:  5594.274 oz adjusted up to the dealer from the customer account

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 1185 contracts for a LOSS of ONLY   52 contacts. We had 454 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A VERY STRONG 402  contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 40,200 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and they also negated a fiat bonus

 

 

May saw its ANOTHER GAIN of 915 contracts to stand at  4278.

June saw a  GAIN OF 902 contracts UP to 352,534

 

 

We had 738 notices filed today for 73,800 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 333 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 738 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 140 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (28,858) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (1185 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (738 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,926,000 OZ OR 91.01 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (28,858)x 100 oz)  1185 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (738 x 100 oz which equals 2,926,000 oz standing OR 91.01 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

THIS GREATLY SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42. TONES OF GOLD STANDING IN ANY MONTH

We gained 402 contracts OR an additional 40200 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the this side of the pond, first before travelling to London..

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

341,434.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.62 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  560,194.208  OZ OR 17.424  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 125.43 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  4,592,969.659 oz or 142.860  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  341,434.443 oz (or 10.6200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  560,194.208 oz or 17.424 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 4,032,775.4  (125.43 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  4,032,775.4 (125.43 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  13,358,935.597 oz (415.51 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   17,951905.258 oz 558.37 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:  without a  doubt… held in London not N.Y.:  150.255 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  408.115 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

April 14/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 389 CONTRACTS FROM 139,780 UP TO 140,169 (AND MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR SMALL OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 29 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/MONDAY.  THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A CONSIDERABLE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION OCCURRING WITH OUR ZERO SILVER ADVANCE. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 24 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH WE LOST 12 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 12 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 4398  DOWN TO 53,218.

JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 2 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 35.

 

 

We, today, had  0 notice(s) FILED  for NIL, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

APRIL 14/2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 156,224.283 oz
brinks
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
24 contracts
 120,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  801 contracts

4,005,,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into everybody else; 0

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.170 million

total customer deposits today: 607,477.800   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of CNT:  27,561.700 oz
ii) Out of Brinks; 118,817.100 oz
iii) Out of Delaware: 9845.183  oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  156,224.283   oz

We had 0 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.147 million

total dealer + customer silver:  319.769 million oz

 

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 801 x 5,000 oz = 4,005,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.(24) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 801 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (24)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.equals 4,125,000 oz.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT  THE COMEX.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 81,251 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY:  68,629 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 68,629 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 343 million  OZ  49.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.76% ((APRIL 14/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.40% to NAV:   (APRIL 14/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.76%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.91 TRADING 15.85///DISCOUNT 0.35

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

APRIL 14/2020/  1009.70 tonnes*

IN LAST 798 TRADING DAYS:   +63.36 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 698 TRADING DAYS;+238.34  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

 

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

 

 

APRIL 14.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

408.536 MILLION OZ.

END

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 6.03/ and libor 6 month duration 1.23

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 4.80

no gold to be found..only gold vapour!

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.83%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.05

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.78

gold non existent

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Surges To New Record Highs in Euros at €1,581/oz and $1,726/oz in Dollars

Gold in Euros – 3 Days

◆ Gold prices surged to new all time record highs in euros and other digital fiat currencies today due to concerns about the outlook for risk assets and currencies in an era of unprecedented economic and monetary risk.

◆ Gold prices rose to a more than seven-year high in dollars today at $1,726/oz (see chart below) as mounting fears of a steeper global economic downturn due to draconian government lock downs increase and highlight gold bullion’s safe haven qualities.

◆ Gold surged to €1,581/oz (see chart above) as the single currency came under selling pressure as concerns deepen about Italy and other periphery nation’s banks and economies and due to increased risks to the euro and the monetary union.

◆ Gold surged to £1,375 per ounce and is testing gold’s record high in sterling which is £1,381.75/oz as the beleaguered pound also came under selling pressure due to concerns about the UK economy.

◆ Strong safe haven demand for gold continues due to concerns about the outlook for the UK, EU and global economy, the unprecedented monetary response of the ECB, the BoE and the other central banks and growing concerns that digital currencies will be devalued in the coming months and years.

◆ Gold reached year highs in dollars and gold prices are up over 14% in euro terms so far in 2020, building on the 22.7% gains in euros seen in 2019 (see table below).

◆ Strong safe haven demand continues due to concerns about the outlook for the UK, EU and global economy, the unprecedented monetary response of the ECB, the BoE and the other central banks and growing concerns that digital currencies will be devalued in the coming months and years.

◆ Gold is now the top performing asset in 2020 year to date, having risen 16% in dollar terms, 19% in euro terms, 21.7% in pounds and by more in other fiat currencies as the virus tips debt laden economies into financial and economic crises

“Yes It Will. The Only Question Is When” – Watch Here

 

Gold in USD – 3 Days


NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold Rises as a Safe Haven in Troubled Economic Times

Gold climbs to over 7-year high on coronavirus-led economic worries

Gold climbs to over 7-year high on coronavirus-led economic worries

Six U.S. states to coordinate gradual reopening after coronavirus shutdown

Risk averse investors and gold ‘bugs’ vindicated by coronavirus rally

‘Criminally unjust:’ ‘Big Short’ investor who called subprime mortgage collapse slams coronavirus lockdowns

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

09-Apr-20 1662.50 1680.65, 1339.48 1348.22 & 1529.00 1538.13
08-Apr-20 1649.05 1647.80, 1328.27 1330.27 & 1517.00 1513.14
07-Apr-20 1652.20 1649.25, 1344.23 1333.75 & 1519.53 1511.21
06-Apr-20 1636.60 1648.30, 1330.72 1341.06 & 1515.49 1526.66
03-Apr-20 1609.75 1613.10, 1310.66 1315.97 & 1490.47 1495.34
02-Apr-20 1588.05 1616.80, 1277.59 1307.02 & 1452.27 1489.72
01-Apr-20 1594.25 1576.55, 1288.95 1270.23 & 1457.94 1442.86
31-Mar-20 1604.65 1608.95, 1299.61 1296.81 & 1461.52 1468.81
30-Mar-20 1624.35 1618.30, 1312.56 1305.97 & 1466.88 1466.02
27-Mar-20 1621.20 1617.30, 1325.33 1316.16 & 1473.18 1469.48

Editors Note: The shortage of gold bullion coins and bars continues and may deepen as prices move higher. It is not just smaller one ounce bullion coins and bars that are difficult to source but also larger gold and silver bars including gold kilo bars (32.15 ozs) worth and 1,000 oz silver bars. Due to our direct relationships with government mints and refineries we continue to source large bars and some gold coins and bars in 1 oz formats.

Receive Our Award Winning Market Updates In Your Inbox – Sign Up Here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A really good commentary from the Martens’ as they discuss the measly 4 month safety net for workers but Wall Street gets a 4 to 5 year bailout

(courtesy Pam and Russ Martens/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Workers get 4-month safety net, Wall Street gets 4-to-5-year bailout

 Section: 

11:45a ET Monday, April 13, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The disgraceful contrast between the federal governments parsimony with suddenly unemployed working people, on one hand, and its corrupt extravagance with financial interests, on the other, is masterfully detailed in today’s Wall Street on Parade report by Pam and Russ Martens. It’s headlined “American Workers Get a 4-Month Safety Net; Wall Street Gets a 4-to-5-Year Bailout” and it’s posted here:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/04/american-workers-get-a-4-month-sa…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

John Kim discusses how the crooks raise margin requirements trying to cause our precious metals to fall. It is not working

(Kim/GATA)

John Kim: Comex changes margin requirements to rig gold and silver prices down

 Section: 

12:05a ET Monday, April 13, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Market analyst John Kim shows today how CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, including the Comex, has been changing margin requirements to knock down gold and silver prices and thereby discourage contract holders from taking delivery of metal. Kim adds that CME Group is even buying metal for its own account after changing margin requirements to push prices down.

Kim urges coin and bullion dealers to stop using futures prices in the pricing of their own products, so that the physical market destroys the paper market and its manipulations at last.

Kim’s commentary is headlined “Precious Metals Dealers: If the CME Artificially Creates Dips in Paper Gold and Silver Futures Prices by Raising Margins, Stand Your Ground” and it’s posted at his internet site here:

https://maalamalama.com/wordpress/cme-artificially-creates-dips-in-paper…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

A good interview of Stuart Englert who discusses the rigged precious metals market with Chris Marcus

(Englert/Chris Marcus/GATA)

‘Rigged’ author Stuart Englert interviewed by Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics

 Section: 

10:29p ET Monday, April 13, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Over the weekend Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics interviewed Stuart Englert, author of “Rigged,” the new book about manipulation of the monetary metals market that draws heavily on GATA’s work.

To purchase a copy, see the advertisement below.

The interview is 18 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q17rJPR68Y8

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

(courtesy SchiffGold.com)

Central Banks Add More Gold To Their Reserves

Via SchiffGold.com,

Central banks continued their gold-buying spree in February, although the pace of gold purchases has slowed compared to last year’s near-record purchases.

On net, central banks globally added another 36 tons of gold to their reserves in February, according to the latest data released by the World Gold Council. That was about 33% higher than January’s total.

On the year, central banks have bought 64.5 tons of gold. That compares to 116 tons through the first two months of 2019.

Central bank demand came in at 650.3 tons in 2019. That was the second-highest level of annual purchases for 50 years, just slightly below the 2018 net purchases of 656.2 tons. According to the WGC, 2018 marked the highest level of annual net central bank gold purchases since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971, and the second-highest annual total on record.

The World Gold Council bases its data on information submitted to the International Monetary Fund.

Turkey continued to be the biggest gold-buyer. The Turks added another 24.8 tons to their reserves in February.

Russia further increased its stockpile of yellow metal, adding another 10.9 tons to their hoard.

Russia’s quest for gold has paid off in a big way. The Russian Central Bank’s gold reserves topped $100 billion in September 2019 thanks to continued buying and surging prices.

The Russians have been buying gold for the last several years in an effort to diversify away from the US dollar.  Russian gold reserves increased 274.3 tons in 2018, marking the fourth consecutive year of plus-200 ton growth. Meanwhile, the Russians sold off nearly all of its US Treasury holdings. According to Bank of America analysts,  the amount of US dollars in Russian reserves fell from 46% to 22% in 2018.

Last month, the Central Bank of Russia announced it planned to suspend gold-purchases for the time being, effective April 1. But in the first week of April, Russian banks were already asking the central bank to restart gold purchases. They expressed concern over gold exports amid disruptions in the transportation industry due to the coronavirus pandemic. National Finance Association head Vasily Zablotsky told Reuters that banks are “facing problems” exporting gold as there are also fewer cargo flights and transportation costs have doubled.

Other buyers of gold in February included:

  • Bulgaria – 0.3 tons
  • Greece – 0.1 tons
  • Kazakhstan – 1.8 tons
  • Qatar –  1.6 tons

The only major seller was Uzbekistan at 3.1 tons.

The People’s Bank of China did not report any gold purchases for the fifth straight month.  It’s not uncommon for China to go silent and then suddenly announce a large increase in reserves.

Many analysts believe China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Given the political dynamics and the ongoing trade war, it seems unlikely the Chinese suddenly stopped increasing their gold reserves in 2016.

The WGC said it expects central banks to remain net-buyers of gold in 2020, but likely at a slower pace than the record levels we’ve seen over the past two years.

“We often get asked if central bank demand will be sustained. The past two months clearly suggest gold continues to be an important component of foreign reserves despite heightened levels of demand in recent years. But like everyone else, the recent market instability and uncertainty will be at the forefront of central bankers’ mind.

Of course, it is difficult to tell how the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic will impact things down the road. It is possible that a rapid devaluation of the dollar due to Federal Reserve quantitative easing could drive central banks to dump dollars in exchange for gold.

Earlier this year, World Gold Council director of market intelligence Alistair Hewitt said there are two major factors driving central banks to buy gold – geopolitical instability and extraordinarily loose monetary policy.

Central banks are looking toward gold to balance some of that risk. We’ve also got negative rates and yields for a large number of sovereign bonds.”

Central bank policy has become significantly looser since Hewitt made that observation.

Peter Schiff has talked about central bank gold-buying. He has noted that the US went off the gold standard in 1971, but he thinks the world is going to go back on it.

The days where the dollar is the reserve currency are numbered and we’re going back to basics. You know, everything old is new again. Gold was money in the past and it will be money again in the future, and central banks that are smart enough to read that writing on the wall are increasing their gold reserves now.”

Ron Paul made a similar point in an episode of the Liberty report. He said foreign central banks are increasingly gravitating to sound money like gold and ripping themselves away from the Fed’s dollar.

The central banks of the world are looking at gold again.”

 

END-

A must view: Alasdair Macleod…

END-

 

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0573/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0587   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 44/24 POINTS OR 1.59%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 135.07 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 595.41 POINTS OR 3.13%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.15/Euro RISES TO 1.0949

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.38/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 21.92 and Brent: 31.50

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.35%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.82%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.02: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.82

3k Gold at $1722.50 silver at: 15.55   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 31/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.31

3m oil into the 21 dollar handle for WTI and 31 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.38 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9629 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0543 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.35%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.75% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.39%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.7932..

Futures Jump As Chinese Trade Data Unexpectedly Outperforms; All Eyes On Bank Earnings

Global stocks jumped and US equity futures traded just around 2,800 on Tuesday after Chinese trade data came in better than expected and some countries tried to restart their economy by partly lifting restrictions aimed at containing the coronavirus outbreak.

Wall Street indexes ended mixed on Monday. The Dow and S&P 500 fell, but a 6.2% gain in Amazon shares helped the Nasdaq end higher.

“The pullback in US equities should come as no surprise in light of last week’s historic rally,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management, noting the S&P 500 posting its best weekly performance since 1974. “Sentiment will zigzag until there is more clarity on formal measures to reopen major economies. More broadly, even though global markets have rebounded, it is difficult to say with any certainty whether the bottom has been reached.”

European stock markets opened stronger, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index rising 0.6% to its highest since March 11, with Spanish shares gaining 1.5% as some businesses re-opened, although shops, bars and public spaces were set to stay closed until at least April 26. Market sentiment was boosted by data showing China’s exports fell only 6.6% in March from a year ago, less than the expected 14% plunge. Imports fell 0.9% compared with expectations for a 9.5% drop.

The gains in Europe took MSCI’s All-Country World Index .MIWD00000PUS, which tracks shares across 49 countries, up 0.5%.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources index is among leading sector gainers after China disclosed numbers showing trade performed better than expected in March, with China exports declining 6.6% in dollar terms in March from a year earlier (exp.-13.9%) while imports fell 0.9% (exp. -9.8%), the customs administration said Tuesday, indicating that supply chains may be adapting better than thought. Specifically, this is the data that China reported:

  • Exports: -6.6% yoy in March vs Bloomberg consensus -13.9%. January-February: -17.2% yoy. Month-over-month export growth: +5.4% non-annualized in March vs. -7.8% in January-February.
  • Imports: -0.9% yoy in March vs consensus: -9.5%. January-February: -4.0% yoy. Month-over-month imports growth: +0.8% non-annualized in March vs. -2.6% in January-February.
  • Trade balance: US$+19.9bn NSA vs consensus US$+20.0bn in March. January-February: US$-7.1bn.

“Although further slowdown in the pandemic’s spreading may keep sentiment supported, we are still reluctant to trust a long-lasting recovery, and we prefer to take things day by day,” said Charalambos Pissouros, analyst at JFD Group.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan rose 1.3% to its highest in a month, up 20% from a four-year low on March 19. Chinese shares gained, with the blue-chip index up 1.2%. Australian shares were up 1.7% and Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.9%.

Earnings season kicks off this week with some of the world’s biggest banks reporting, giving investors their first glimpse of how bad the hit to global profits will be. Fidelity International analysts expect earnings to almost halve at companies globally this year. While Goldman Sachs Group forecasts advanced economies will shrink about 35% this quarter, investors are focusing on whether trillions of dollars in stimulus and rescue plans will fuel a rally in risk assets when the infections curve flattens.

In addition to the start of earnings season which begins with JPM reporting today, investors are also eyeing the easing of virus-related restrictions in some regions for further trading cues.  In Europe, thousands of shops across Austria are set to re-open on Tuesday. Spain recorded its smallest proportional daily rise in the number of deaths and new infections since early March and let some businesses return to work on Monday.

In the United States, which has recorded the highest number of casualties from the virus in the world, President Donald Trump said on Monday his administration was close to completing a plan to re-open the U.S. economy. However, some state governors say the decision to restart businesses lies with them.In the latest developments, India and France extended their lockdowns and the British government is weighing similar steps.

In rates, 10Y yields dipped modestly to 0.75%, while Italian bonds fell after a report that the government is set to seek a significant deficit deviation. Bunds dropped as markets rose.

In commodities crude was up 0.85% at $22.55 a barrel, compared with a January peak of $63.27. Brent rose 1.3% to $32.16  a barrel. Oil prices rose around 1% after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted shale output in the world’s biggest crude producer would fall by a record amount in April, adding to cuts from other major producers. Gold prices clung to highs not seen in more than seven years at $1,720.1 an ounce.

In currencies, the dollar extended losses on the back of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s massive new lending program. It weakened against the Japanese yen to 107.7. The euro was up 0.2% at $1.0929. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar jumped 0.6% to $0.6420.

Expected data include import and export prices. Fastenal, J&J, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are among companies reporting results.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.3% to 2,793.75
  • MXAP up 1.6% to 143.26
  • MXAPJ up 1.3% to 461.49
  • Nikkei up 3.1% to 19,638.81
  • Topix up 2% to 1,433.51
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 24,435.40
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.6% to 2,827.28
  • Sensex down 1.5% to 30,690.02
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 5,488.11
  • Kospi up 1.7% to 1,857.08
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 334.66
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to -0.35%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.0918
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 6.0 bps to 1.419%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.2 bps to 0.814%
  • Brent futures down 0.3% to $31.64/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,720.80
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 99.21

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Bloomberg’s monthly survey puts contraction in the euro area at more than 10% in the January-June period, with most of the hit – – 8.3% — in the second quarter. Even with an expected rebound later in the year, the bloc’s output will still decline more than 5% in 2020
  • U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab told reporters it was likely to carry on and the government’s chief scientific adviser saying he expects the daily rate of deaths to continue to rise
  • The Federal Reserve will start buying commercial paper on Tuesday, just as Wall Street braces for an earnings season likely blighted by the coronavirus outbreak
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he wanted to start cash handouts for individuals and businesses hurt by the coronavirus pandemic as soon as May
  • China has started the process of potentially merging its two biggest brokerage firms to create a company that can better compete with the global investment banks as the country opens up its financial markets, according to people familiar with the matter

Asian equity markets were positive across the board as sentiment picked up from the holiday lull and as the region digested the mostly better than expected Chinese trade data, but with some of the gains capped heading into the start of US earnings season and as participants pondered how soon the US will reopen its economy. ASX 200 (+1.9%) was led by strength in gold miners after the precious metal surged above the USD 1700/oz level to its highest in more than 7 years, while Nikkei 225 (+3.1%) outperformance was fuelled by favourable currency moves with SoftBank shares also reversing the initial glut of sell orders that followed its preliminary results that showed the first loss in 15 years. Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.6%) conformed to the regional optimism after the latest trade figures showed a much narrower than expected contraction in Exports and a surprise expansion to CNY-denominated Imports, although there were mixed comments from the customs bureau which noted there are signs of recovery for China’s foreign trade which is resilient but also warned of increasing uncertainties and that trade is encountering larger difficulties which cannot be underestimated. On the coronavirus front, China recently approved 2 experimental coronavirus vaccines to enter clinical trials and Beijing was said to have resumed all of the city’s 2130 major construction projects. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued in tandem with the downside in T-notes amid gains in riskier assets, but with losses stemmed after somewhat improved demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for long to super-long JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Trade Fell Less Than Expected Even as Virus Spread
  • India’s Modi Says Nationwide Lockdown Extended Through May 3
  • Indonesia Surprises by Holding Key Rate, Cuts Reserve Ratio
  • Air Arabia Is Said to Seek State Aid and Delay New Venture
  • World’s Most Battered Corners in Bull Zone on Newfound Optimism

European equities remain mostly firm following a broad pickup in sentiment across APAC and US regions, with the former also aided by better-than-forecast Chinese trade data overnight. That being said, eyes turn to the resumption of earning season to gauge the initial impact of the virus outbreak on large-cap businesses. For reference, states-side earnings today include Johnson & Johnson (4.1% weighting in DJIA), JP Morgan (2.9% weighting in DJIA) and Wells Fargo. Back to Europe, UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.4%) lags regional peers as a firmer Sterling weighs on exporters, whilst reports also noted that the UK gov’t is poised to extend its lockdown to May 7th, although some reports over the weekend touted May 25th. Other European bourses see broad-based gains, with some possibly underpinned by comments from EU’s Competition Chief Vestager, who said member countries should purchase stakes in companies to repel the threat of Chinese takeovers. Broader sectors are somewhat mixed with underperformance in the Energy Sector, whilst Healthcare names lead the gains thus far. The sector breakdown does not give much by way of additional colour, although Travel & Leisure resume its downbeat performance as the sectors see no reprieve for the near future, whilst Carnival (-7.0%) sees pressure after the group is to extend its suspension on North American cruises. In terms of individual movers; AstraZeneca (+6.0%) props up the healthcare sector as shares were bolstered at the open after the Co. said its Tagrisso Adjuvant trial has been overwhelmingly positive. Separately, Co’s Koselugo has been approved in the US for paediatric patients with a rare genetic condition. Finally, the Co. has also initiated the Calavi clinical trials with Calquence against COVID-19. Renault (+3.0%) remains firm despite a cancellation to FY19 dividend after the Co. is to transfer its 50% stake in Dongfeng Renault to Dongfeng in a non-binding memorandum. Publicis (-0.3%) saw losses at the open after reporting that organic revenue dell 2.9% YY, although the Co. launched a EUR 500mln cost reduction plan. Accor (-2%) saw early-morning pressure after French Finance Minister Le Maire said he cannot say when hotels and restaurants will reopen. Note: Eurex and Deutsche Boerse have been experiencing technical problems that are being investigated.

Top European News

  • Austria Tests Easing Lockdown With Some Stores Reopening Tuesday
  • GAM Accelerates Cuts as Assets Plunge by $13 Billion in Quarter
  • Norwegian Air Plunges 63% on Plan to Convert Debt to Equity
  • Crisis in Russia Puts $13 Billion of Remittances at Risk
  • Crisis Gives Germany Sense of Vindication for ‘Black Zero’

In FX, the Dollar remains depressed after last Thursday’s mega Fed stimulus package and ramp up in Gold through the Usd1700/oz threshold to fresh 7 year peaks, with the DXY unable to regain a foothold above 99.500 within a 99.432-121 range amidst selective risk-on flows in wake of latest COVID-19 updates, the eventual OPEC+ crude output accord and Eurozone Finance Ministers finally agreeing on a substantial fiscal stimulus package. Ahead, US import export prices are scheduled, but unlikely to prompt much, if any reaction, but Wednesday’s data releases are top tier.

  • GBP – The Pound is off best levels, but still the best performing G10 currency after UK PM Johnson’s discharge from hospital. Cable remains comfortably above the 1.2500 handle and briefly crossed the 50 DMA at 1.2568 to print a fresh 1.2575 recovery high before reports from the ONS emerged raising the number of fatalities in England and Wales by 15% vs NHS figures published to April 3rd, while Eur/Gbp is back above 0.8700 from circa 0.8784 at one stage awaiting revised GDP and deficit estimates from the OBR under various coronavirus scenarios due at 12.00BST.
  • ZAR – In contrast to Sterling, Rand gains against the Buck were initially reversed from 18.0000+ to just shy of 18.2000 in wake of an unexpected 100 bp SARB rate cut that was announced via social media and came after May’s scheduled policy meeting was brought forward. However, Usd/Zar subsequently soared beyond 18.3300 as Central Bank Governor Kganyago
  • JPY/EUR/CHF/AUD/NZD – All firmer vs the Greenback, as the Yen defies improved risk sentiment to hold at the upper end of 107.79-39 parameters, but not quite close enough to disturb decent option expiry interest protecting 107.00 at 107.05 (1.1 bn). Note, no real rection to latest BoJ source talk about increased and wider QE remits at this month’s meeting that might include expanding the range of assets accepted for collateral. Similarly, the Euro is hovering closer to the top of 1.0957-06 confines and the Franc nearer 0.9637 than 0.9679 even though latest weekly Swiss sight deposits indicate significantly more intervention by domestic banks on behalf of the SNB. Elsewhere, some loss of overnight momentum forged on the back of Chinese trade revealing a surprise rise in Yuan denominated imports for the Aussie and Kiwi, but both retaining sight of big figure/psychological resistance marks at 0.6400 and 0.6100 respectively.
  • CAD/NOK/SEK – In keeping with the rather muted response following knee-jerk relief in oil on the aforementioned OPEC+ pact, the Loonie is paring advances from around 1.3863 to sub-1.3900 as attention switches towards tomorrow’s BoC meeting and the prospect of downbeat/dovish guidance, assuming no further action. Meanwhile, the Norwegian Krona has also retreated from almost 11.1700 vs the Euro to 11.2800, but its Swedish peer showing a bit more resilience above 10.9000 due to signs of the case and death count from nCoV flattening.
  • EM – The Lira is struggling to contain losses below 5.7900 amidst heightened coronavirus contagion and the Turkish banking regulator slashing FX swap and derivative limits, while the already unstable political backdrop has been rocked by the resignation of the country’s Interior Minister.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures reverse course after initially eking mild gains following the fallout of the OPEC+ and G20 ad-hoc meetings which failed to spur a rally but more-so stemmed declines in the complex (in the short-term at least). As a recap for European players, OPEC+ agreed to cut joint output by 9.7mln BPD, starting on 1 May 2020, for an initial period of two months that concludes on 30 June 2020. For the subsequent period of 6 months, from 1 July 2020 to 31 December 2020, the total adjustment agreed will be 7.7mln BPD. It will be followed by a 5.8mln BPD cut from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022. The baseline for the calculation of the adjustments is the oil production of October 2018, except for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Russia, both with the same baseline level of 11.0mln BPD. The agreement will be valid until 30 April 2022; however, the extension of this agreement will be reviewed during December 2021. Saudi, UAE and Kuwait all pledged voluntary over-compliance, whilst G20 is to curtail output by some 3.7mln BPD. Yesterday, Saudi Aramco cut their OSPs for several grades for the second month in a row despite the output cut deal; albeit, OSPs for all grades to the US were raised. The Arab Light discount to Asia reflects the supply glut. Furthermore, Russian Energy Minister Novak said he met with domestic oil producers and they supported the OPEC+ deal, while he added that total oil output cuts in May-June will total between 15-20mln BPD. WTI straddled around USD 22.50/bbl in early trade before briefly dipping below USD 22/bbl, whilst Brent meanders just below USD 31.50/bbl, having confirmed to the modest sell-off during the session The difference between the contracts meanwhile remains wider to the tune of around USD 9.50/bbl vs. a pre-OPEC sub-5/bbl number. Elsewhere, spot gold holds onto a bulk of yesterday’s gains and remains north of USD 1700/oz and near recently-set 7yr highs given USD weakness and as investors stock up on the yellow metal following the liquidity-induced declines last month. Copper meanwhile has given up the gains seen during the APAC session after Freeport-McMoRan said it will temporarily shut its Chino copper mine (produced 88k tons of copper in 2019) due to the virus outbreak, albeit the red metal remains caged in a narrow 2.3250-2.3480 band.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. -3.2%, prior -0.5%; Import Price Index YoY, est. -5.0%, prior -1.2%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. -1.9%, prior -1.1%; Export Price Index YoY, prior -1.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope you all had a relaxing if probably a little strange Easter. Today is actually 10 years to the day that the second more dramatic eruption of Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull occurred. The following day all European air travel was shut down for a week. Imagine if you’d had a big trip planned for your 40th or 50th birthday that week, saw it cancelled and vowed that in 10 years’ time you’d celebrate your next major landmark with an even bigger trip to make up for it. I feel for you this week it’s that’s you!! I certainly won’t be arranging a big trip for mid-April 2030!

So strange times indeed and we come back from Easter still reflecting on two big events that occurred late on Thursday. Although this crisis is unique in its making and is clearly not the fault of anyone in financial markets, it is clearly exposing two of the biggest fault lines in the financial system over the last two decades. Firstly, Thursday saw the latest instalment of a 20- to 25-year super cycle where the authorities have been so reluctant to see the creative destruction that’s so important to successful capitalism that they had to make another stunning major intervention, and secondly, we saw the latest evidence that a European monetary union without fiscal union was always going to involve sporadic but hugely existential risks to the EU and help to create ever more fraught politics.

On the first one, ever since the Fed of the late 1990s decided to bail out the financial system post the LTCM collapse, we’ve had rolling state sponsored capitalism and large moral hazard. This has meant that each subsequent default cycle (or mini market cycle) has been less severe than the free market parallel universe version would have been and has left increasingly more debt in the system as a result and meant that the intervention necessary to protect the system has got greater and greater. In my opinion, it also helps lock in lower productivity as you keep more low/no growth entities alive.

On Thursday, the Fed announced the details of their $2.3 trillion to support the US economy. The main additional features within credit was the buying of any eligible corporates that were IG rated before March 22nd and also HY ETFs. For fallen angels this is huge moral hazard as a lot of BBB-rated companies have seen their ratings downgraded in recent years due to: 1) central bank inspired ultra-low interest rates encouraging them to lever up, and 2) a related desire to return value to shareholders, especially through share buybacks. In terms of buying HY ETFs while this is planned to be small in terms of size, it is the first time a major central bank has purchased HY corps and therefore opens the door for more aggressive interventions in lower rated credits going forward. As an example of the impact, Ford which became the 2nd largest fallen angel in history in late March, saw its 5.875% August 2021 bond yields fall from 8.8% to 4.9% on Thursday on a YTM basis after the announcement (closed 5.6% yesterday). US HY and IG tightened -85bps and -22bps on Thursday and then a further -26bps and -15bps, respectively, yesterday. For those looking for more details on the Fed announcement, Craig has published a couple of reports with the first (link here) providing details on the facilities and the second (link here ) details on the eligible universe.

While I would stress that in the face of a global pandemic, there has to be some sympathies with these policies, had markets not been repeatedly bailed out over the last 20-25 years the authorities wouldn’t have needed to be as aggressive. It also makes me wonder what could ever allow us to see free market creative destruction again in my lifetime. When we see the subsequent recession after this one you’ll again start from even higher debt and the same issues will come up albeit with a much less severe economic scenario than the covid-19 one.

I can hear the refrain from investors in say 2025 when credit looks too tight for the late cycle risks. They’ll say that it’s impossible not to be long as the Fed has their back and they’ll miss out if they are not fully invested. Understandable but a very bad way of ensuring capital is allocated in the most growth enhancing manner. I’ll be coming back to talk much more about this in the weeks ahead so I’ll leave it there for now.

Sticking with the Fed, yesterday the NY Fed announced that from May 4 onwards it will conduct one rather than two overnight repo operations each day, a step that will halve the amount available to $500bn. It also plans to halve the frequency of its three-month repo operations, which also have a maximum size of $500bn apiece, to once every two weeks, although it will continue to do one-month actions every week. The accompanying statement read that the decision was taken “in light of more stable repo market conditions.”

As for Europe in terms of what has been agreed, best to read Mark Wall’s blog here from Thursday night. As he discusses, there is much ambiguity in the plan. Perhaps most ambiguity exists around whether the ESM is accessed by a number of countries and thus removing the stigma for Italy where it’s a politically sensitive issue to access it and accept conditionality. In these circumstances if it unlocks the ECB to buy short-term government debt via the OMT program it could take some pressure off the capital keys question within the PEPP. However, at this point we don’t know whether this form of the ESM unlocks OMT, which is part of the ambiguity. In speaking to Mark last night it seems Italy don’t plan to use the ESM and will focus attention on the leaders’ meeting on 23 April and making sure that the recovery fund is as good as it can be.

The summit closed the door on Eurobonds and my thoughts on this is that if they are not going to be seriously considered in such a catastrophe then it’s pretty hard to imagine the scenario we get them in the future or see meaningful steps towards fiscal union. To be fair this was never going to happen in this response after all the northern countries’ negativity towards it but it’s now inevitable that non-core country debt is going to go up at an even faster pace due to Covid-19 (and it’s after effects) than it is in core countries. The politics of this will resonate and it will be worth watching in Italy especially. Regardless of the short-term impact, the fault-lines in the European construct are being exposed again by this crisis. This will have ramifications further down the line.

Turning to markets now. Yesterday in the US, the S&P 500 retreated -1.01% ahead of earnings season and following its 8th best week on record, but did close off intra-day lows of c.-2.5%. Technology and Consumer Discretionary (led by stay-at home-stocks Amazon and Netflix) outperformed on the day, with the NASDAQ up +0.48%. Possibly showing some nerves ahead of earnings, Bank stocks, which are early reporters, were the second worst performing sector in the S&P 500, down -4.13%. As risk fell, fixed income was relatively quiet until a small sell-off at the end of the day. US 10yr Treasury yields rose 5.2bps to 0.77% and longer dated 30yr yields climbed 6.4bps to 1.41%. Elsewhere, Gold reached its highest closing level since November 2012, gaining 1.10% on the day to finish at $1715/oz.

After nearly a week of negotiations between OPEC+ and G20 oil ministers, we got a late Sunday resolution from the oil producing nations to end the price war and cut production by 9.7million barrels a day based on headline numbers. This compared with reports out last week suggesting a 10 million barrels. However, as our colleague Michael Hsueh noted yesterday, given a creative baseline level, the actual cut from March levels will be roughly -8.4million barrels a day at most and there are reasons to expect not all of the cut will happen immediately in May. The expected demand decline continues to dwarf the reduction in supply at least in April and perhaps in all of Q2. Michael sees pressure on oil prices remaining to the downside in the near term. See the link to his full note here. Brent futures had gapped over 6 % higher in early trading, before quickly falling and then retracing the entirety of that move to close just +0.83% higher.

Moving onto the virus, full details will be in our sister daily the Corona Crisis Daily. In brief global cases have risen to nearly 2 million over the holiday weekend from 1,518,719 on Thursday. The weekend saw a massive amount of slowing of new cases growth in the US and Europe though. However, will the recent pattern of lower Weekend/Monday rates of increases in cases/mortality for the US, UK, Germany and France be even worse over Easter? We won’t know until the reporting catches up later in the week.

A quick refresh of our screens shows that most major markets in Asia are up this morning. The Nikkei (+2.19%), Hang Seng (+0.62%), Shanghai Comp (+0.68%) and Kospi (+1.68%) in particular have posted gains. In FX, the US dollar index is trading down -0.17% while the Norwegian krone is up +0.95% leading the advance amongst G-10 currencies. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +1.20% this morning ahead of the start of earnings season. In commodities, Brent crude oil prices are up +1.54% while most base metals are also trading up with iron ore up +1.08%. Gold is also trading up +0.18% this morning.

Contributing to the stronger tone this morning was China’s March export data, which showed exports declining -3.5% yoy (vs. -12.8% yoy expected) and imports rising +2.4% yoy (vs. -7.0% yoy expected) in local currency terms. In USD terms, exports were down -6.6% yoy (vs. -13.9% expected) while imports were down -0.9% yoy (vs. -13.9% yoy expected). Our Asia strategists make argument that the better-than-expected numbers could be due to the fact that as labor mobility increased in China in March as lockdowns got lifted it helped the country to clear the backlog of export orders. A word of caution though that the improvement in exports could be temporary as the majority of the world went on lockdown in April and Chinese authorities are continuing to highlight that the export headwind China is facing remains strong. Another detail worth attention from the release is that the China’s imports of pork and soybeans from the US rose 6.6 times and 2.1 times, respectively, in Q1 2020. Overall, China’s agriculture imports from the US rose 110% in 1Q. This could be a sign that China is trying hard to stick to its commitment under Phase 1 of the trade deal with the US.

As for the rest of this week the main highlights are the start of US Q1 earnings today and China Q1 GDP on Friday. In addition every week initial jobless claims are now going to be a big event. With regards to earnings, 33 companies in the S&P 500 report including many financials. A number of firms have already withdrawn their guidance as a result of the coronavirus, but it’ll be interesting to see the first impact of the shutdowns in March and what companies say about any visibility they have. In terms of the highlights, today we’ll hear from Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Then tomorrow reports come from UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, ASML, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. Thursday sees Abbott Laboratories, BlackRock and BNY Mellon report, before Friday sees releases from Danaher, Honeywell and Morgan Stanley. Bank earnings will be fascinating as the surge in volatility will help trading revenues but the loan losses won’t have come through yet. Will they make big provisions or will they see all the schemes in place to stop companies going bust and be relatively sanguine about this.

For China’s Q1 GDP figures on Friday, the consensus expectation on Bloomberg is for a year-on-year decline of -6.0% in Q1, down from a 6.0% year-on-year expansion in the last quarter of 2019. This would represent an astonishing deterioration without precedent in the quarterly data we have going back to 1992.

Other data to look for in the US are the start of some March hard data, which will capture the initial part of the slump. These include retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation tomorrow, followed by building permits and housing starts on Thursday.

In addition to data one thing that’s always closely watched is the release of the IMF’s semi-annual World Economic Outlook, which is coming out today. To be fair it will probably just catch up with the consensus huge declines expected from all economists but it will no doubt capture some headlines.

Before the day-by-day rest of the week ahead calendar let’s briefly review last week. It was a week that saw some equity markets enter technical bull market territory after virus curves flattened and the Fed deployed further aggressive interventions in the US. The S&P 500 rose +12.10% on the week (+1.45% Thursday), the best week since October 1974 and the 8th best week out of 4,184 weeks on record since January 1928. The index also entered a bull market, rising +24.69% from the index’s closing lows on March 23rd. European equities rose slightly less than the US, with the Stoxx 600 up +7.36% over the 4 day week (+2.24% Thursday), and is now up +18.64% off the March lows. The DAX rose +10.91% (+2.92% Thursday) to rise +25.15% from lows to finish the week in bull market territory itself. Asian equities also rallied last week, though on a full 5 days basis. The Nikkei rose +9.42% (+0.79% Friday), while the CSI was up a more moderate +1.51% (-0.62% Friday) and the Kospi gained +7.84% (+1.33% Friday) on the week. As risk sentiment improved and global equities rose, the VIX fell -5.1pts over the course of the week to finish at 41.7, the lowest closing level in over a month. Further highlighting the effects of the Fed’s actions late in the week and the improvement in risk sentiment, credit spreads tightened significantly over the week. US HY cash spreads were -147bps tighter on the week (-85bps Thursday), while IG tightened -47bps on the week (-22bps Thursday). In Europe, HY cash spreads were -89bps tighter over the 4 days (-37bps tighter Thursday), while IG was -29bps tighter on the week (-14bps Thursday).

Ahead of the OPEC+ and the separate, but interwoven G20 oil minister meetings this past weekend, crude failed to maintain the extreme rally of the prior week. Brent fell -7.71% (-4.14% Thursday) while WTI fell -19.69% (-9.29% Thursday) as sentiment toward a broad based deal started to sour. Elsewhere in commodities, even as risk rallied, gold rose +4.68% over the week (+0.77% Friday) on the back of further monetary stimulus and a -1.64% weekly drop in the Bloomberg dollar index.

With equity prices improving globally, sovereign bond yields rose on the week in both Europe and the US even as the stimulus measures on Thursday saw bonds rally with risk assets. US 10yr Treasury yields rose +12.4bps (-5.3bps Thursday) to finish at 0.72%, while 10yr Bund yields increased +9.4bps (-4.1bps Thursday) to -0.35%. Even prior to the deal being reached by the European commission peripherals spreads started tightening. Italian yields tightened -5.4bps over the 4 days (-2.0bps Thursday), and Spanish 10yr bonds tightened -5.3bps (-1.8bps Thursday).

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 44.24 POINTS OR 1.59%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 135.07 POINTS OR 0.56%   /The Nikkei closed UP 595.41 POINTS OR 3.13%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.89%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0573 /Oil DOWN TO 21.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 31.50 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0573 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0587 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea

“Fat man” is at it again: fires a barrage of cruise missiles in  a major show of force

(zerohedge)

North Korea Fires Barrage Of Suspected Cruise Missiles In “Major Show Of Force”

On Tuesday North Korea fired multiple suspected cruise missiles from both the ground and air off the country’s east coast, South Korea’s military said.

The missiles flew for over 93 miles (150km) at a low altitude according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said, coming days after Kim Jong Un’s visit to an airbase to observe defense drills involving attack aircraft over the weekend.

The timing of the missile tests also comes on the eve of the celebration of the country’s late founder, Kim Il Sung – the current leader’s grandfather. The Associated Press described it as “a major show of force” on the occasion of the national holiday.

 

Tuesday’s launch shown on TV in Seoul, via AP.

If confirmed it would mark the third such deeply provocative test since the beginning of March, after Pyongyang warned Washington over stalled nuclear talks, and at a moment fears are growing over a potential coronavirus outbreak in North Korea, which authorities are believed to be hiding from international media and reporting.

“The back-to-back launches were the most high-profile among a series of weapons tests that North Korea has conducted recently amid stalled nuclear talks and outside worries about a possible coronavirus outbreak in the country,” the AP reports.

“North Korean troops based in the eastern coastal city of Munchon first launched several projectiles — presumed to be cruise missiles — on Tuesday morning, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement,” AP continues.

 

Kim Jong Un attends a drill of mortar sub-units of North Korean Army in this image released by Korean Central News Agency on April 10. Source: KCNA via Reuters.

South Korea’s military also warned about a broader resumption of aggressive military drills by the north, as later in the day Tuesday Pyongyang also “launched several Sukhoi-class fighter jets that fired an unspecified number of air-to-surface missiles toward the North’s eastern waters,” according to a defense official cited in AP.

However, it should be noted that some reporters and analysts disputed the extensiveness of the alleged missile tests.

Laura Bicker

@BBCLBicker

<Some clarity>

North Korea fired “several” short range air-to-surface cruise missiles from fighter jets this morning for 40 minutes. The missiles flew around 150km east into the sea. North Korean Sukhoi jets were also observed doing defence drills near China/North Korea border.

BBC Seoul Correspondent Laura Bicker described the launches as primarily “air-to-surface” – this despite South Korean television appearing to show ground launch missiles being fired.

END

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

again, China reimposes restrictions on movements as they feel a second wave looms

(zerohedge)

China Quietly Reimposes Restrictions On Movement As Outbreak’s ‘Second Wave’ Looms

The Communist Party of China have just cemented their reputation as masters of “doublethink”.

Late last night (Monday morning in Beijing), China reported 108 new cases of the virus, with 98 of them allegedly tied to travelers (presumably Chinese nationals) returning to the mainland from abroad. As many swiftly pointed out, the new number, the highest since March 6, when China reported 143 new cases, and marked an eyebrow-raising departure from the trend of new cases that had slowed to almost nothing, with whatever new cases confirmed almost immediately being blamed on foreigners.

Beijing has been telling citizens for weeks that, thanks to the hard work, sacrifice and dedication of the people, China has triumphed over the virus. But as we’ve pointed out, that isn’t entirely true: some municipalities have reimposed lockdown measures following aftershock-outbreaks, and on Monday, officials in Wuhan announced that they would tighten screening of residents trying to leave the city now that the lockdown is over (as fears about the possibility of asymptomatic travelers from the city igniting a ‘second wave’ across the country really start to sink in).

The trend of so-called ‘asymptomatic’ cases – mostly foreigners, as identified by Chinese authorities – outnumbering those with emergent symptoms has continued, unsurprisingly, despite government’s best attempts to stamp it out.

On March 28, the CPC banned the entry of foreigners into China. But that hasn’t stopped state media from blaming ‘travelers’ crossing into the country via the border from Russia for spreading the coronavirus in the Chinese border city of Suifenhe in the north-eastern Heilongjiang province, where hundreds of cases have recently been reported.

Al Jazeera described the border between Russia and China on Monday as “a front line in the country’s fight against a resurgence of the coronavirus” as officials in Beijing blamed a group of travelers returning from Russia’s far east for roughly half of the new cases reported yesterday. It noted that fears of a second wave have been amplified as Beijing continues to tout its plans to ease restrictions on movement while continuing to tighten them in other places and in other ways.

Back in the US, as states haphazardly reach out to factories in China in a mad dash for life-saving supplies, China said Monday that some coronavirus-related products that have been shipped abroad from mainland factories have needed to be returned because of quality control issues.

This, in turn, has disrupted supplies of life-saving medical equipment, harming China’s ‘reputation’ in the international community.

As China accuses the US of ‘racism’ for its early travel restrictions on travelers who had recently visited China, never forget that authorities in Beijing have ordered a crackdown on Africans traveling in China as Beijing prepares to blame them (along with the US and the UK) for starting the second wave.

闪电@l9hu72k2QK3mP4y

China is kicking out African businessmen who came in legally just because they’re Black.

Embedded video

Authorities recently apologized for allegedly discriminating against ‘our African brothers’, and slammed the US’s allegations as smears and falsehoods, per RT.

While China likes to point at Japan and Indonesia as neighbors who are struggling with larger outbreaks than the mainland, in reality, China’s response has been nowhere near as effective as South Korea’s.

South Korea, at one point the worst affected country outside China, is no longer in the top 20 by number of confirmed coronavirus cases, which was just 9 yesterday. Since China is much larger than South Korea, it is much more difficult to contain any kind of nationwide pandemic.

Few projections offer much insight into the arc of China’s outbreak, since nobody really knows for sure about the inputs (number of cases, rates of increase  etc.). But as photos showed tens of thousands of Wuhan residents fleeing the city by train, by plane or by car a week ago, one could be forgiven for being left with the distinct impression that Beijing is deliberately trying to reignite its outbreak.

end
CHINA/USA/CORONAVIRUS..CABLES SENT
Cables were sent to the USA in 2018 warning that a potential SARS like pandemic might be at hand.
(zerohedge)

US State Department Cables Warned Of Potential ‘SARS-Like Pandemic’ After Visiting Wuhan Lab Experimenting With Bat Coronavirus

The US State Department received two cables from US Embassy officials in 2018 warning of inadequate safety at a Wuhan, China biolab conducting ‘risky studies’ on bat coronaviruses, according to the Washington Postwhich notes that the cables have “fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus.”

A US delegation led by Jamison Fouss, the consul general in Wuhan, and Rick Switzer, the embassy’s counselor of environment, science, technology and health took the unusual step of repeatedly visiting the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) – which had become China’s first laboratory to achieve the highest level of international bioresearch safety (BSL-4) in 2015. The last of the visits, which occurred on March 27, 2018, was documented on WIV’s website and subsequently scrubbed (archive).

US officials were so concerned by what they saw that they warned of a potential pandemic stemming from the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses.

 

What the U.S. officials learned during their visits concerned them so much that they dispatched two diplomatic cables categorized as Sensitive But Unclassified back to Washington. The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic. –Washington Post

“During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory,” reads a January, 2018 cable drafted by two officials from the embassy’s environment, science and health sections who met with scientists from the WIV.

Interestingly, the Chinese researchers were receiving assistance from the Galveston National Laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch and other U.S. organizations, however the Chinese had requested additional help. Consequently, the cables warned that the US should give the WIV additional support because of how dangerous the research on bat coronaviruses was.

As the cable noted, the U.S. visitors met with Shi Zhengli, the head of the research project, who had been publishing studies related to bat coronaviruses for many years. In November 2017, just before the U.S. officials’ visit, Shi’s team had published research showing that horseshoe bats they had collected from a cave in Yunnan province were very likely from the same bat population that spawned the SARS coronavirus in 2003.

“Most importantly,” the cable warns, “the researchers also showed that various SARS-like coronaviruses can interact with ACE2, the human receptor identified for SARS-coronavirus. This finding strongly suggests that SARS-like coronaviruses from bats can be transmitted to humans to cause SARS-like diseases. From a public health perspective, this makes the continued surveillance of SARS-like coronaviruses in bats and study of the animal-human interface critical to future emerging coronavirus outbreak prediction and prevention.”

Shi and other researchers have strongly denied that the new virus known as 2019-nCoV came from WIV, after her team was the first to publicly report it.

According to the report, the bat coronavirus research was aimed at preventing the next SARS-like pandemic “by anticipating how it might emerge,” however according to the report “even in 2015, other scientists questioned whether Shi’s team was taking unnecessary risks.”

In October 2014, the U.S. government had imposed a moratorium on funding of any research that makes a virus more deadly or contagious, known as “gain-of-function” experiments.

WaPo is careful to note that ‘many‘ have said there’s no evidence that COVID-19 was engineered, and that concensus is that it came from animals, “that is not the same as saying it didn’t come from a lab, which spent years testing bat coronaviruses in animals,” according to Xiao Qiang, a research scientist at UC Berkeley.

“The cable tells us that there have long been concerns about the possibility of the threat to public health that came from this lab’s research, if it was not being adequately conducted and protected,” he said.

Meanwhile, similar concerns remain about the nearby Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention Lab – a level 2 biosecurity facility, while the Chinese government refuses to say whether either lab was involved.

Notably, the Wuhan CDC is located roughly 900 feet from the wet market which accounted for roughly half of the new COVID-19 cases late last year.

That said, the report notes that the wet market didn’t sell bats – and the first known patient had no known connection to the market. That said, there’s nothing to say that an employee from the Chinese CDC didn’t accidentally infect themselves and go shopping for meat during the virus’s well known asymptomatic incubation period.

According to WaPo, citing sources familiar with the cables, the US embassy wanted to sound an alarm about the grave safety concerns at the WIV lab, “especially regarding its work with bat coronaviruses.”

“The cable was a warning shot,” said one US official. “They were begging people to pay attention to what was going on.”

Next, WaPo moves on to the ‘blame the Trump admin’ phase of the report, noting that “no extra assistance to the labs was provided by the US government in response to the cables” which “began to circulate again inside the administration over the past two months as officials debated whether the lab could be the origin of the pandemic and what the implications would be for the U.S. pandemic response and relations with China.”

Inside the Trump administration, many national security officials have long suspected either the WIV or the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab was the source of the novel coronavirus outbreakAccording to the New York Times, the intelligence community has provided no evidence to confirm this. But one senior administration official told me that the cables provide one more piece of evidence to support the possibility that the pandemic is the result of a lab accident in Wuhan.

Of note, the Obama administration ‘paused’ funding to the WIV, which was lifted a year into Trump’s presidency according to the National Review.

“The idea that is was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from the lab is circumstantial. Right now, the ledger on the side of it leaking from the lab is packed with bullet points and there’s almost nothing on the other side,” said one WaPo source.

Meanwhile, the CCP has put a complete lockdown on information related to the origins of the virus – refusing to provide US experts with samples collected from the earliest cases, and quickly shutting down the Shanghai lab which published COVID-19’s genome on January 11th for “rectification.”

As WaPo notes, “Several of the doctors and journalists who reported on the spread early on have disappeared.”

On Feb. 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a new biosecurity law to be accelerated. On Wednesday, CNN reported the Chinese government has placed severe restrictions requiring approval before any research institution publishes anything on the origin of the novel coronavirus.

And now – considering the source of the report, the bat’s out of the bag and the official narrative has been set – which we were called conspiracy theorists for positing three months ago.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

BELGIUM

Despite the coronavirus lockdown rioting on the streets of Anderlecht, Belgium

(zerohedge)

 

Migrant Youths Riot In Belgium Despite Coronavirus Lockdown

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Migrant-background youths staged a riot in Anderlecht, Belgium during which they trashed police vehicles and fired guns despite the city being under a coronavirus lockdown.

The unrest was triggered by an incident in which a 19-year-old identified as ‘Adil’ killed himself by colliding with a police van after running through a checkpoint on his scooter.

This prompted calls for a “protest” which quickly turned into a violent riot as the youths smashed up the police vehicle using bricks and concrete slabs.

An individual wearing a balaclava subsequently fired a handgun that had been stolen from police.

Filip Dewinter

@FDW_VB

Brave bejaarden worden beboet als ze met twee te dicht bijeen op een bank durven zitten maar DIT blijft onbestraft? Zet het leger in…

Embedded video

There was a new spike in violence, a more limited one, around 10 p.m., with stones thrown at a police station (windows were broken), but this was rapidly repressed by police, said local mayor Fabien Cumps.

Cumps said the mob had gathered not to pay respect to their dead friend but in order “to be violent.”

 

Police chief Patrick Evenepoel admitted that authorities didn’t initially intervene despite the illegal gathering and only acted “when we saw that groups of young people were arming themselves with rocks taken from construction sites in the area.”

All of this was in complete violation of Belgium’s coronavirus lockdown law, which bans gatherings of more than two people.

Twitter users pointed out the difference between the police’s approach to the initial gathering and them fining people for walking in the park.

Denis Bolotsky@BolotskySputnik

There was a lightning-fast response on Belgian social media to the Anderlecht riots, with memes pointing at criminals paying zero for destroying police vans, while law-abiding citizens walking in the park get fined for breaking COVID-19 restrictions.

View image on Twitter

As we previously highlighted, lockdown laws are being ignored in numerous migrant ghettos across Europe.

The lockdowns are deemed so pointless that one French official even suggested opening up all the shops in migrant areas to prevent riots.

*  *  *

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end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This is dangerous:  a massive fire has broken out inside the Chernobyl exclusion zone and next to a nuclear reactor building

(zerohedge)

“Situation Is Critical” – Massive Wildfire Roars Through Chernobyl Exclusion Zone

Ukrainian first responders have been battling one of the worst wildfires ever inside the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone for the last ten days that now surrounds the abandoned nuclear power plant, reported ABC News.

According to Yaroslav Yemelianenko, the head of the Association of Chernobyl Tour Operators and also works with the state agency that manages the Exclusion Zone, said the fires are burning 1.2 miles from the power station containing radioactive waste.

Yemelianenko wrote on Facebook that the situation is “critical” and accused local government officials of downplaying the severity of the fire.

“The situation is critical. The zone is ablaze,” Yemelianenko wrote. “The local authorities report that everything is under control, but in fact the fire is rapidly spreading across new areas.”

“I have two possibilities for what’s going on: either the Cabinet is not being told the real situation or they’ve chosen the Soviet policy of hushing it up, as they did in ’86,” he wrote.

The State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management’s Facebook page posted several pictures of the fast-spreading wildfires burning near the power plant.

We reported last week that ecological inspection chief Yegor Firsov said a radiation spike of 17x was detected in one of the hot spots.

AFP news agency

@AFP

VIDEO: A forest fire is underway in the restricted zone around Chernobyl, scene of the world’s worst nuclear accident, but Ukrainian government agencies have denied an official’s claim that the fire caused a spike in radiation levels

Embedded video

The 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant incident is one of the worst nuclear disasters in human history. The region is the most radioactively contaminated area in the world.

Earlier this year, we showed how certain types of fungi are attracted to radiation. And the radioactive site of the abandoned power plant has seen an abundance of fungi growing on it over the years.

Now the power plant has found itself in an emergency again. Smoke from the wildfire can be seen around nuclear reactor No. 4, reported RT News.

 

Wildfire smoke surrounds No. 4 reactor at the Chernobyl power plant. h/t RT News 

ISCResearch@ISCResearch

☢ Get ready for some potential fallout over . https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8212397/Raging-forest-infernos-Chernobyl-Exclusion-Zone-close-exploded-nuclear-reactor.html 

Forest fires in Chernobyl Exclusion Zone ‘close’ to nuclear reactor

Wildfires burning through radioactive forests in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine are getting ever closer to the exploded nuclear reactor (pictured, forest fires in the famed Exclusion Zone).

dailymail.co.uk

ISCResearch@ISCResearch

🇺🇦 – The fire is already “knocking” at reactor building Nr.4 of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Nuclear Power Plant in |

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

David Moore 🔥🛰️🌍🖥️@David_P_Moore

Wildfires 🔥 are burning very close to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant 🇺🇦 seen in the Sentinel-2 data on 12/04/2020 🛰️🌏 burned areas show up in the darker red colours, active fires show as yellow @nceoscience @sentinel_hub @CopernicusEMS

Embedded video

Volodymyr Demchuk, a senior official from the emergency service, said 130 firefighters, 60 vehicles, three planes, and three helicopters have been battling the wildfire.

“This is the biggest fire in the history of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone,” Yemelianenko told ABC. He said it measures about 11 miles wide and is burning dangerously close to the power station.

Olena Gnes, a guide who works at Chernobyl Tour, said the fire has the potential to release radioactive particles into the atmosphere.

 

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS/USA/GLOBE/UPDATE

Cuomo Claims “I Would Ignore Trump Reopening Order If It Endangered NY” As US Death Toll Nears 25,000: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Trump and states battle over who decides on reopening
  • European cases (Germany, Spain) continued to slide
  • Russia reports another record jump in new cases
  • Cuomo says he would disobey Trump order to reopen economy if it endangered his state
  • China reports another 89 new infections
  • US Dept. of Ag prepares to unveil coronavirus farm bailout
  • Florida surgeon general says social distancing should continue until a vaccine is released
  • Cali pastors sue state to reopen churches
  • Iran plans to divest 10% of Shasta as selloff of state assets begins
  • NATO warns supply chains of important medical supplies should be moved out of ‘non-member’ states

*     *     *

Update (0800ET): New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was back on CNN Tuesday morning (the network where his brother Chris works as an anchor) to rebut the president’s claims that the true authority about when to reopen the country rests with the White House. During the governor’s spot, he insisted he would sue the federal government and – if it comes down to it – simply resist Trump’s order if it “endangered” New Yorkers.

Cuomo, who is always shown great deference by CNN’s servile reporting staff, added that although Trump did the right thing by stopping travel from China, he did not issue the order to shut the US economy – that was done in a piecemeal way by the states, beginning with California.

We suspect this pissing contest will consume a surprisingly large amount of this week’s news cycle.

*     *     *

As states on the West and East coasts of the US promised to work together to develop plans for regional reopenings of economy – plans that could be released as soon as Tuesday, according to Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom – President Trump on Tuesday continued to insist that the decision of when to reopen the economy rests with him alone.

The issue of when to reopen the economy, and the battle between the states and Trump, appears to be the big issue looming over the US this week, now that it’s become clear that the urgent shortage of supplies that certain Democratic governors had warned of actually wasn’t a problem after all.

Last night, we shared a detailed timeline developed by Morgan Stanley illustrating how the bank’s analysts expect the reopening will unfold.

Tensions between the President and the press reached a new breaking point last night, as Trump jousted with a CBS News reporter and insisted that “everything we did was perfect” and that he had “total authority” over when to reopen the economy, which he said would happen “ahead of schedule.” Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci insisted he didn’t mean to imply that the administration should have ordered a lockdown in mid- or late-February, a time when even Dr. Fauci was cautioning the public that the most strict measures weren’t necessary – at least not yet.

All the while, US deaths are nearing 25,000, as the total number of confirmed cases in the country near 600k.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Italy and Spain are beginning to let more workers return to their shops and worksites while French President Emmanuel Macron last night warned that France still had a long way to go, before extending the French lockdown until mid-May while acknowledging that “we weren’t prepared”.

This week’s Bank of America fund manager survey discovered that fund managers are sitting on more cash right now than at any time since 9/11.

As millions of Americans clamor for bringing more of the medical supply chain back under the control of the US, now that the world has seen what relying too heavily on China-based supply chains can lead to, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that there would be a meeting of alliance members to discuss moving more production of critical medical supplies out of “non-member” countries.

“We have to look into issues like supplies of medical equipment, protective suits, medicines…and also ask questions about whether we are too dependent on production coming from outside, whether we need to produce more of this equipment from our own countries,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

In the UK, the FT reported that more deaths were recorded in England and Wales during the week ending on April 3 than in any week since comparable estimates started 15 years ago, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.

Global cases of the virus increased by 71,572 yesterday, the 4th day in a row that the number of newly infected around the world has fallen. Still, the pace of increases brought the total number north of 1.9 million.

Meanwhile, with the IMF and World Bank annual meetings slated to begin later this week, the IMF has said it would supply grants to some of the poorest nations in Africa and Asia.

Vladimir Putin now officially has reason to panic as Russia records 2,774 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, a third consecutive record daily increase. Russia now has 21,102 cases of the virus, and 170 people have died from the disease. Russia’s outbreak has soared over the past 2 weeks, as numbers have doubled roughly every 4 days. China, meanwhile, reported 89 new cases, a slight drop from yesterday, with almost all of the being classified as ‘foreign’ cases.

Following warnings that first emerged late last week, Iran is set to kick off its privatization push to save its economy from the coronavirus: To accomplish this, Iran will sell off 10% of Shasta, the investment arm of the Social Security Organization of Iran – which is one of the state’s crown-jewel assets.

As cases in Europe continued to slow, Germany reported 2,082 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, the lowest number in more than three weeks, and an increase of under 2%. Germany has confirmed 125,098 cases so far, according to official data from the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin. Spain also reported a less-than-2% (1.8%) jump in new cases, its slowest rate since the beginning of the outbreak, according to the Washington Post.

In the US, the US Department of Ag will reportedly unveil as much as $15.5 billion as part of the first phase of coronavirus aid to the farming industry on Tuesday. Meanwhile, late yesterday, Florida’s surgeon general reportedly said that social distancing should continue until a vaccine has been developed. The Trump administration, meanwhile, has requested a roughly 3-month delay on all US census field operations. The administration also asked Congress to postpone the deadline for delivering key data that will affect redistricting.

As millions of religious Americans continue to skip worship-related gatherings like Church, several pastors in California are suing the state and local officials over their stay-at-home edicts prohibiting in-person services, claiming these rules violate the 1st Amendment. And finally, more than 2,100 US cities are bracing for serious budget shortfalls.

END

BILL BLAIN…

“Get Pragmatic” – Bill Blain Warns Of “Seriously Dark Dystopian” Future

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“If you try to take a cat apart to see how it works, the first thing you will have is a non-working cat.”

On Thursday I posted a note on the Fed doing exactly what I predicted – a programme to buy high-yield junk. A sniffy Wall Street trader called me an imbecile – which is quite a big word for a Wall St trader. He told me the Fed is not buying junk bonds, just ETFs related to junk and levered finance. He yelled at me to get it right. Really..? Go figure. Same difference. Its detail. I confidently predict the Central Banks w

ill be buying equity ETFs soon enough – which is buying equity. End of.

*  *  *

After a glorious 4 days Easter staycation over the best April weekend in history, do I feel refreshed enough to face another week in markets? As analysts simultaneously forecast global depression and record stock markets by year end, are we are into the realms of financial insanity? I have some seriously dark dystopian forebodings about where this could go…

Get over it… Smile.

But before we talk ourselves into giving up.. REMEMBER – things are never as bad as you fear they might be. (It doesn’t mean they are looking particularly good either.) If you are prepared for the worst, then you are less likely to be disappointed if it happens…

If you can’t make your mind up about markets, you are in good company. I have to admit I am beginning to wonder what some commentators are smoking – there is lot of hallucinogenic nonsense out there. But, the bottom line is the global economy is not dead. It is adapting. That means massive change. It means dropping current orthodoxy, and working out what is real today may well be dead and buried tomorrow, and front-running the completely new opportunities that are going to arise. It’s dangerous, but kind of exciting.

To face the future… get pragmatic. 

First: 

Work out why the market is fooling itself. Markets are scared of change, with a default position things will revert to “as-they-were.” This time they will not. There are a number of dangerous narratives playing out in markets at present – all of which expect things to revert to “same-as”.

1) C-19 is going to go away because of “curve flattening”, and we will have a vaccine in a few months time. No. We mighthave a vaccine in a year or so, and Might is not a winning market strategy. C-19 might not go away any time soon.

2) This is not a real war. No means of production like factories, ships, infrastructure have been destroyed. Everyone can start working again when the all clear sounds. No. As the old adage goes – 40% of American’s are one pay-check away from bankruptcy. A recent survey says nearly 40% have seen family members lose jobs, and 30% of Americans think their jobs are at risk.

3) Global trade will swiftly fill any supply gaps.  No. Protectionism is going to play front and centre as countries seek to ensure they are not caught again.

The World had changed. Adapt to it.

Second:

Let’s remind ourselves of the disturbing reality.. A few examples to think about: 

  • Stocks have just staged their best turnaround performance in over 80 years. The Global economy is heading for a 10-15% single quarter contraction.
  • Investment banks are calling the bottom on stock markets, to buy credit bonds, and predicting a V-Shaped recovery. Landlords, Lenders, Companies and Individuals are being sucked into a cascading landslide of defaults, missed payments, increasing debt, fear and panic.
  • Central banks are pumping cash into economies through QE infinity, governments are doing everything to get cash to companies to keep them going. Some support programmes are swift and are working. Others are delayed, with failed delivery exacerbating the sense of crisis. Markets are arbing the supports.
  • Asset managers say strict investment ESG guidelines have never been so critical. Moral Hazard has gone out the window when it comes to bailing out protectionism, payrolls and sectors.
  • The Financial sectors thinks it’s fantastic – witness the Goldman Sachs syndicate head bragging of his record first quarter new issue revenues in bonds, despite lockdown. People don’t have enough cash to put food on the table for their kids.
  • Investment banks are telling their staff to get back into their offices. C-19 is running rife around bankers who have gone back in.
  • Politics is creating new heroes. Everyone loves Boris. Trump gets testy when his C-19 record is questioned. Not a problem – the Democrats look determined to lose in November.

Third

My job is to try and make sense of it. Let’s lay all the pieces of the jigsaw on the table, and try to put them together. 

  • Massive monetary stimulus through QE Infinity, and unlimited fiscal support via the promise of sector and company bailouts and nationalising payrolls, have fuelled the market’s expectations rally. NOT BECAUSE OF A STRONGER ECONOMIC OUTLOOK OR RISING COMPANY RESULTS. Distortion and disconnect is not sustainable long-term (although its pretty much fuelled markets since 2009).
  • The expectation is Central Banks can’t allow a market meltdown. Follow the Fed.. you won’t lose. Financial assets – bonds and stocks are rising. If you fear inflation, stocks and bonds are where to look for it.
  • There is no escape for Central Banks and Governments from the consequences of their actions – they can’t pull fiscal spending without crushing the economy, and they can’t pull back monetary market support for fear of crushing confidence. They have “crossed the diamond with the pearl” to create the ultimate market drug high, and markets can’t face cold-turkey. The merest hint of a taper tantrum today – and we’re talking massive market reset. Negative rates look inevitable.
  • A massive deflationary demand shock is under way as incomes crash, insecurity and uncertainty wipes out whole sectors, and governments predict massive GDP damage.
  • This week we will get a barrage of new doom-laden forecasts from the virtual Washington IMF/World Bank meetings. Plus, it’s the start of the US earnings season – so we get first look at Q1 business damage. They may shock markets, but we really need to know how companies plan to cope.
  • Investment firms are in serious trouble as dividends plummet. Asset managers need returns to pay investors. There are zero returns across financial assets. The only way to generate returns is to go yield hunting – meaning investors will take increased risk, piling into riskier assets like Emerging Markets. It’s another accident-waiting-to-happen the authorities can’t let happen. Expect further financial asset bailouts.
  • Where will all the cash go? Companies borrowing unlimited amounts of rescue money through governments are unlikely to rationalise making any serious investments into deflationary economies with 20% plus unemployment. Their response is more likely to be defensive, retrenchment via cost and job-cutting while determining what the future looks like. Depression will fuel depression.
  • Demand for get rich quick speculative fantastical stories – like Bitcoin, We Work and other implausibles – will push prices higher. Note how Tesla has bounced 40% plus off its recent lows despite the fact no one is buying cars. I’m pretty sure I’ll be writing about Softbank’s collapse in coming days/weeks/months.
  • Helicopter money support direct to consumers may alleviate immediate poverty by giving the masses a couple of day’s fish, but for those still with income and the knowledge to fish, it will magnify income inequality.

I’ve seen some investment banks predicting a 35% Q2 global GDP crash. Other analysts are looking at 2022 before we see global production recover. Sage old hedge fund managers are telling us it’s the “worst I’ve ever seen..”

What does the jigsaw show us? Ongoing uncertainty and insecurity, meaningless financial asset markets reflecting monetary and fiscal distortion rather than economic reality, low growth (if any), declining investment, soaring unemployment, rising social discontent.

Fourth: 

What are the opportunities?

Who wants to own high risk financial assets in search of a few basis points in yield? Better returns will be made from owning real assets in the real economy. That is what Warren Buffet and others are waiting for – the opportunity to buy real companies and assets.. not overpriced stocks. Until the distortion of financial assets is undone – which looks pretty much impossible… I’d rather own real things…

Recovery is going to follow – Commodities could be a starting point. At the moment everyone is looking at depressed Oil prices, saying global demand has plummeted, despite China’s stronger than expected production numbers. At some point, sooner than expected, we will see commodity demand rise sharply.

I cycled round Southampton Docks on Saturday. There were five massive cruise liners laid up, empty. They cost about $750mm, and guzzle around $10mm a month to run in terms of debt service, crews, fuel, and the rest. How long can cruise companies haemorrhage money? Well… I read that cruise bookings for 2021 are actually up. Yep.. people still want to go to see the world from a luxury hotel room.

Or… we could figure out how to reset the global economy. More than a few folk are proposing a debt jubilee – but that would have enormous consequences.

Let’s finish on a fairy-tale…

The publican was worried – the bar was empty. No one was making any money and could afford to drink. Next day a German tourist walks into the bar. He says he needs a room for the night. The publican shows him both available rooms. The German says he will need to ask his wife. He gives the publican 100 Euros to hold the rooms. The publican immediately runs across to the grocers and pays off his 100 Euro tab. The grocer nips across to the butchers to pay the 100 Euros he owes for last week’s meat order. The butcher runs across to the undertaker to pay off the Euro 100 cost of his father’s recent funeral. The undertaker rushes off to the village Madam to pay for services rendered. She runs across to the pub, and pays the publican 100 Euros for the rooms she’d rented. The German returns with his wife, who doesn’t like either room, and the publican gives the German his 100 Euros back. The bar is full that evening… 

If only life was so simple…

end

Go figure>>> cruise line bookings up 40% for next year…

(zerohedge)

Cruise Lines Say Bookings For 2021 Up 40% Despite Terrifying Series Of On-Board Outbreaks

Millions of Americans are terrified that the first pandemic in 100 years will mark a dramatic turning point in social interaction that might cause disruptive new changes in many aspects of society and the global economy. What they seem to be forgetting, in many cases, is that 50 million people died during the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 – marking a global disaster on a much grander scale even than COVID-19 – and, afterward, nothing really changed.

This of course doesn’t guarantee that there won’t be serious long-term disruptions to certain industries – if not the entire economy – this time around. For all we know, Tyler Cowen’s dystopian vision of a New York City where those without COVID-19 ‘immunity’ are relegated to a kind of permanent underclass might come to pass. However, it certainly doesn’t seem likely.

And according to thousands of armchair analysts tweeting out their views and dozens of more refined professionals sharing their outlook on CNBC, if there’s any industry that’s going to need a rethink, it’s going to be travel and leisure.

Experts have raised the possibility that nobody will go on cruises anymore, that the “one-meeting” business trip will become a thing of the past, and traveling abroad for brief vacations might also become far less common.

But as valid as they seem, there’s also reason to believe these concerns might be misplaced.

To wit: as BI notes, despite the staggering negligence of management and maddening 14-day quarantines endured by passengers – not to mention the dozens who have died and hundreds who have been sickened – reservations on American cruise lines have actually climbed for 2021.

Even with at least one major cruise line facing a criminal investigation, BI said that over the past 45 days, the cruise booking site CruiseCompete.com saw a 40% increase in its bookings for 2021 over its 2019 bookings.

For those wondering why Americans might want to go on a cruise after all of this, we have two ideas: 1) lower prices, 2) many Americans are idiots (as evidenced by the ‘Covidiots’. Those people have parents).

Shortly after the report was published, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson appeared on CNBC to explain his bank’s revised outlook, and emphasized the varying “best, base, and worst”-cases. When he got to the “best” case, he noted that there’s still reason to believe that the ‘best case’ scenario might actually play out, and the massive fiscal stimulus coincides with a natural strong rebound to send the global economy into growth overdrive.

Here’s one more reason to support that thesis – and a 3,250 2020 price target.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil tumbles after the IMF slashes global growth.

(zerohedge)

Oil Tumbles After IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast

As if oil prices needed any more help on their downward spiral towards the teens, The IMF just slashed global growth to the worst since the ’30s.

“This crisis is like no other,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, wrote in a foreword to its semi-annual report.

“Like in a war or a political crisis, there is continued severe uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the shock.”

As Bloomberg notes, The International Monetary Fund predicted the “Great Lockdown” recession would be the steepest in almost a century and warned the world economy’s contraction and recovery would be worse than anticipated if the coronavirus lingers or returns.

In its first World Economic Outlook report since the spread of the coronavirus and subsequent freezing of major economies, the IMF estimated on Tuesday that global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year.

That compares to a January projection of 3.3% expansion and would likely mark the deepest dive since the Great Depression. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction of 2009 amid the financial crisis.

Of course, there is the hockey-stick recovery with IMF anticipating growth of 5.8% next year, which would be the strongest in records dating back to 1980, it cautioned risks lay to the downside.

The grim projections are a stark reversal from the IMF’s outlook less than two months ago (on Feb. 19, the fund told Group of 20 finance chiefs that “global growth appears to be bottoming out.”)… and now…

“Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital-flow reversals and a collapse in commodity prices,” the IMF said.

“Risks of a worse outcome predominate.”

And the impact on the most economically-sensitive commodity is clear…

The IMF’s baseline scenario assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of this year and that containment measures can be gradually wound down.

We suspect that is optimistic and that we’re gonna need more production cuts and more bailouts!

end
Oil tumbles again as the Saudis initiate another price ar with record discounts
(zerohedge)

Oil Tumbles As Saudis Quietly Launch New Price War With Record Discounts

This weekend’s 11th hour decision to cut OPEC oil output by 23% was supposed to end the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC+, but it appears Saudi Arabia did not get the memo.

While oil production may (or may not) be cut by 9.7mmb/d on May 1, Riyadh remembered that to capture market share one can manipulate volumes, which are now set as per this weekend’s OPEC+ agreement or one can adjust price discounts, which are not. And as the kingdom faces stiff competition from rival suppliers for market share in the prized Asian market (or at least what’s left of it after India cut demand by 70%), the OPEC leader slashed its official selling prices to Asian customers for May by larger-than-expected margins this week, while keeping prices flat for Europe and raising them for the United States.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco set the May price for its Arab light crude oil to Asia at a discount of $7.3 to the Oman/Dubai average, down $4.2 a barrel from April, according to a document seen by Reuters.Asian refiners had called on Saudi Arabia to slash its crude OSPs for a third straight month in May after Middle East benchmarks and refining margins dropped amid ample supplies and lower demand due to the coronavirus. Overnight, China’s customs bureau reported that overseas energy purchases weakened in March as demand from the top importer took a hit from the coronavirus pandemic. Crude oil imports fell to the equivalent of about 9.72 million barrels a day, the least since July.

While Aramco cut Asian prices in hopes of beating Russia, Iran and other producers to the punch, it raised the May OSP of its Arab light crude oil to the United States to a discount of $0.75 per barrel versus the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI), up $3 a barrel from April, according to the document.  Aramco left its OSP for Arab light crude oil to Northwestern Europe unchanged from April at a discount of $10.25 per barrel to ICE Brent.

The cut in prices to Asia reflect weak demand, while OSPs to Europe and the United States reflect oil market fundamentals and the global supply cut pact, an industry source familiar with the pricing process told Reuters.

Then on Tuesday morning, Saudi Aramco again cut official selling prices of all four grades to new record lows from Egyptian port of Sidi Kerir for May, in line with big cuts in prices for other customer regions, with some grades sold at a discount of as much as $10.95/bbl:

  • Arab Light OSP set at $9.85 discount to ICE Brent, vs -$8.40 for April
  • Arab Extra Light also at -$9.85/bbl vs -$5.60/bbl
  • Arab Medium -$10.95/bbl vs -$10.20/bbl
  • Arab Heavy -$10.95/bbl vs – $10.50/bbl

Prices of all four crude grades from Sidi Kerir are 45c higher than those shipped from Ras Tanura in Persian Gulf for customers in Mediterranean, compared with 20c higher in April’s price list.

And so, between the IMF’s warning earlier today, and Saudi Arabia’s quiet restart of the oil price war, Brent tumbled by over 5.5% this morning, sliding below $30, after hitting a high over $36 just two trading days ago as the unprecedented chaos in the energy market continues.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0949 UP .0030 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.38 DOWN 0.245 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2556   UP   0.0036  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3911 UP .0038 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 30 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 44.24 POINTS OR 1.59% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 135.07 POINTS OR 0.56%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,89%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 135.07 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 44.24 POINTS OR 1.59%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.89% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 595.41  POINTS OR 3.13%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1720.10

silver:$15/52-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.75% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.39 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.15 DOWN 19 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.93% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.83%//UP 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,78  UP 19 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 95 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.38% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.16% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0959  UP     .0040 or 40 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.18 DOWN .448 OR YEN UP 45  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.25889 UP .0069 POUND UP 69  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 42 basis points to 1.3916

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0502    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0490  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8166 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.73 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.40 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.05 DOWN 30  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 56.47  0.97%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 155.48 POINTS OR .47%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 24.28 POINTS 0.14%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 29.20 POINTS or 0.41%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 94.69 POINTS OR 0.54%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 21.14 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 30.02 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    73.05  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.55 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 55 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.38 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  20.72//

 

 

BRENT :  30.04

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.74  down ..2 basis points

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.39..down one basis point…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0984 ( UP 64   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.16 DOWN .468 (YEN UP 47 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.85 DOWN 50 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2635 UP 115  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8185

 

 

the Russian rouble 73.08   UP 0.53 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 53 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3883 DOWN 9 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.38%

 

The Dow closed UP 558.99 POINTS OR 2.39%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 323.04 POINTS OR 3.95%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  37.95 CLOSED DOWN 3.22

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.219%//libor dropping 

libor-ois: 1.152 also dropping

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Gold Jumps, Crude Dumps As Nasdaq Squeezes To Best Run In 5 Months

The only thing driving stock markets right now…

Masa Capital@MasaSonCap

Markets right now:

View image on Twitter

Because fun-durr-mentals aren’t…

 

Top-down macro…

Source: Bloomberg

Bottom-up micro…

Source: Bloomberg

…and neither is virus optimism?

Source: Bloomberg

And, as Steve Liesman noted:

“The Fed is starting to weigh in (a bit of out school) with its view on how to bring the economy back. Evans (chicago fed) just joined Bullard (st. louis fed) in calling for massive national testing. Evans also called for a “Manhattan Project” to find a vaccine.”

Which also helped spark some more optimism in stocks – because now The Fed members are all expert epidemiologists too… NOTE – The European close marked the reverse of the downtrend… Small Caps and Trannies remain red on the week however….

This is the NASDAQ’s longest winning streak since December (QQQ up 6 days in a row, best run since Dec 26th) and pushed it back above its 50- and 200-day moving-average…

Banks were clubbed like a baby seal after a positive initial reaction…

Source: Bloomberg

AMZN hit a new record high today, back above the $1 trillion market cap…

Source: Bloomberg

Helping to send FANG Stocks soaring back near record highs… this is the biggest 2-day surge in FANGs since the massive short-squeeze meltup at the start of January 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite stock gains, bonds were bid (though a late-day selloff took the shine off)…(2Y -1bp, 30Y +6bps on the week)

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields remain rangebound…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold rallied on the day to almost $1750…

Source: Bloomberg

,,,but the Spot-Futures spread compressed…

Source: Bloomberg

And oil prices plunged… Brent below $30…

Source: Bloomberg

And WTI below $20…

A key gauge of the oil market’s health is at its weakest in more than a decade as supplies build and futures contracts roll over. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery traded at more than $7 a barrel below its June contract on Tuesday, the deepest contango since 2009. The May contract is nearing expiration and exchange-traded funds, including the United States Oil Fund, have been selling front-month contracts and buying second-month futures.

Source: Bloomberg

Who’s drinking OPEC+’s milkshake?

As the dollar drops to one-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we let Shard Capital’s Bill Blain sum things up… Work out why the market is fooling itself. Markets are scared of change, with a default position things will revert to “as-they-were.” This time they will not. There are a number of dangerous narratives playing out in markets at present – all of which expect things to revert to “same-as”.

1) C-19 is going to go away because of “curve flattening”, and we will have a vaccine in a few months time. No. We might have a vaccine in a year or so, and Might is not a winning market strategy. C-19 might not go away any time soon.

2) This is not a real war. No means of production like factories, ships, infrastructure have been destroyed. Everyone can start working again when the all clear sounds. No. As the old adage goes – 40% of American’s are one pay-check away from bankruptcy. A recent survey says nearly 40% have seen family members lose jobs, and 30% of Americans think their jobs are at risk.

3) Global trade will swiftly fill any supply gaps.  No. Protectionism is going to play front and centre as countries seek to ensure they are not caught again.

The World had changed!

And nowhere is that “change” more evident in the correlation between stocks and gold as debasement/hyperinflation fears begin to leak into markets…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, Gold and global equities don’t usually move in tandem, but these are not usual times. The two assets — one a traditional haven and the other a classic risk-on bet – had an inverse correlation for most of last year, but as investors navigate the fallout from the coronavirus, they’ve started to move more in sync. Both nosedived in mid-March amid panic selling and forced margin calls; each then recovered by about 20% as central banks and governments kicked in more stimulus.

Source: Bloomberg

That official support has aided stocks, while also fanning concerns about currency debasement and rising debt levels, supporting bullion.

As seen in the surge in USA sovereign risk…

Source: Bloomberg

And it can never stop… There is no escape for Central Banks and Governments from the consequences of their actions – they can’t pull fiscal spending without crushing the economy, and they can’t pull back monetary market support for fear of crushing confidence. They have “crossed the diamond with the pearl” to create the ultimate market drug high, and markets can’t face cold-turkey. The merest hint of a taper tantrum today – and we’re talking massive market reset. Negative rates look inevitable.”

 

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Not unexpected:  USA import/export prices plummet due to the covid  as this is a strong deflationary strike

(zerohedge)

US Import, Export Prices Plummet In March As COVID Deflationary Drag Strikes

In what is perhaps not totally surprising, the deflationary winds of a global lockdown washed ashore in the US with a collapse in both US import and export prices (though both were modestly better than expected).

  • Import Prices fell 2.3% MoM (better than the -3.2% exp) and year-over-year plunged 4.1% (again better than 5.0% drop expected)
  • Export Prices fell 1.9% MoM (better than the -2.3% exp) and year-over-year tumbled 3.6%.

Source: Bloomberg

 

These are the biggest deflationary impulses since June 2016.

China’s deflationary export was not as significant as Canada and Asia Near-East…

Source: Bloomberg

More to come, we are sure.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

two million struggling homeowners are now applying for assistance as we witness an explosion of forbearance..it paints a dire picture..

(zerohedge)

Nearly 2 Million Struggling Homeowners Apply For Assistance As Forbearance Explosion Paints Dire Picture

With unemployment claims hitting nearly 17 million over the last three weeks, the number of Americans applying for the government’s mortgage forbearance program under the COVID-19 relief plan spiked 73% for the week ending April 5 vs. the previous week – jumping from 2.73% to 3.74%, according to new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

For context, the total number of loans in forbearance was just 0.25% for the week of March 2 – an increase of 1,496% in just six weeks, with the number of borrowers in forbearance now topping 2 million according to CNBC.

Of the increase, borrowers with Ginnie Mae loans are in the worst shape – with requests jumping from 4.31% to 5.89%. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowers are doing ‘less bad’, with forbearance requests increasing from 1.69% to 2.44%.

“The nationwide shutdown of the economy to slow the spread of COVID-19 continues to create hardships for millions of households, and more are contacting their servicers for relief in accordance with the forbearance provisions under the CARES Act,” said MBA’s chief economist, Mike Fratantoni. “With mitigation efforts seemingly in place for at least several more weeks, job losses will continue and the number of borrowers asking for forbearance will likely to continue to rise at a rapid pace.

Meanwhile, as we noted last night, JP Morgan is now raising borrowing standards for most new home loans as they move “to mitigate lending risk stemming from the novel coronavirus disruption.”

Starting Tuesday, customers applying for a new mortgage will need a credit score of at least 700, and will be required to make a down payment equal to 20% of the home’s value (something which we thought was the norm after the last financial crisis, but apparently lending conditions had eased quite a bit in the past decade), according to Reuters.

“Due to the economic uncertainty, we are making temporary changes that will allow us to more closely focus on serving our existing customers,” Amy Bonitatibus, chief marketing officer for JPMorgan Chase’s home lending business, told Reuters.

Other key findings from the BA’s latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey:

  • Total loans in forbearance grew relative to the prior week from 2.73% to 3.74%. For the week of March 2, only 0.25% of all loans were in forbearance.
  • Forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) rose relative to the prior week to 2.43% from 1.36%.
  • Weekly servicer call center volume
    • As a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#), calls rose from 11.6% to 14.4%
    • Hold times decreased from 13.0 minutes to 10.3 minutes
    • Abandonment rates declined from 21% to 17%
    • Average call length rose from 7.3 minutes to 7.5 minutes from 7.3 minutes
  • Loans in forbearance as a share of servicing portfolio volume (#) as of April 5, 2020:
    • Total: 3.74% (previous week: 2.73%)
    • IMBs: 4.17% (previous week: 3.45%)
    • Banks: 3.63% (previous week: 2.24%)

Meanwhile, homebuilders seem to think everything’s A-OK.

END

This is a must read:  Dr Sidell is perfectly correct in his analysis of how to deal with the coronavirus

(Great Game India)

Whistleblower: COVID-19 Patients Need Oxygen Therapy Not Ventilator

Via Great Game India,

Another whistleblower, a doctor treating Coronavirus patients himself has come out with a startling disclosure saying COVID-19 patients need Oxygen therapy not Ventilator and that we may be treating the wrong disease. He says the patients symptoms resemble High Altitude Sickness and not Pneumonia.

Dr. Cameron Kyle-Sidell is a doctor treating COVID-19 patients in New York City’s Maimonides Medical Center. Nine days ago Dr. Cameron opened an Intensive Care Unit to care for COVID-19 patients in New York City. Here is what he learned in his own words:

“I am a physician who has been working at the bedside of COVID+ patients in NYC. I believe we are treating the wrong disease and that we must change what we are doing if we want to save as many lives as possible.”

“In February, South Korean physicians reported that critical Covid-19 patients responded well to oxygen therapy without a ventilator. Patients are getting multiple organ damage from hypoxia. It’s not the pneumonia that’s the killer, it’s the cellular oxygen deprivation. And we are hurting these patients with ventilators.”

The past 48 hours or so have seen a huge revelation: COVID-19 causes prolonged and progressive hypoxia (starving your body of oxygen) by binding to the heme groups in hemoglobin in your red blood cells. People are simply desaturating (losing o2 in their blood), and that’s what eventually leads to organ failures that kill them, not any form of ARDS or pneumonia. All the damage to the lungs you see in CT scans are from the release of oxidative iron from the hemes, this overwhelms the natural defenses against pulmonary oxidative stress and causes that nice, always-bilateral ground glass opacity in the lungs.

Patients returning for re-hospitalization days or weeks after recovery suffering from apparent delayed post-hypoxic leukoencephalopathy strengthen the notion COVID-19 patients are suffering from hypoxia despite no signs of respiratory ‘tire out’ or fatigue.

Earlier, GreatGameIndia reported, a Montana based physician Dr. Annie Bukacek, MD, blowing the whistle on how the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is exaggerating the COVID-19 death toll by manipulating Coronavirus death certificates.

The CDC counts both true COVID-19 cases and speculative guesses of COVID-19 the same. They call it death by COVID-19. They automatically overestimate the real death numbers, by their own admission.  Prior to COVID-19, people were more likely to get an accurate cause of death written on their death certificate if they died in the hospital. Why more accurate when a patient dies in the hospital? Because hospital staff has physical examination findings labs, radiologic studies, et cetera, to make a good educated guess. It is estimated that 60 percent of people die in the hospital. But even [with] those in-hospital deaths, the cause of death is not always clear, especially in someone with multiple health conditions, each of which could cause the death.

GreatGameIndia@GreatGameIndia

Do you think an entire nation-wide lockdown can defeat ?

37%Yes
63%No

Similar claims have also been made by Senator Dr. Scott Jensen from Minnesota who said Hospitals are getting paid more to list patients as COVID-19.

Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do.”

Dr. Jensen received a 7-page document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test confirming the diagnosis.

end

If these guys are worried so should you

(zerohedge)

JPMorgan Profit Plunges To 7 Year Low On $6.8 Billion In Loan Loss Reserves As Dimon Warns Of “Severe Recession”

And so the worst quarterly earnings season since the financial crisis (at least until the catastrophic Q2 earnings) is off, when moments ago JPMorgan reported that it missed expectations, with earnings plunging from a year ago, reporting Q1 adjusted revenue of $29.07 billion, which was -2.6% y/y, and missed the estimate of $29.52 billion, while Q1 EPS was 78c, down 71% from the $2.65 reported a year ago.

Breaking these down, net interest income was $14.5 billion, flat versus the prior-year, with the impact of lower rates offset by balance sheet growth and mix as well as higher net interest income in CIB Markets. Noninterest revenue was $14.5 billion, down 5%, and included a $951 million loss in Credit Adjustments & Other in CIB driven by what the bank said was “funding spread widening on derivatives and $896 million of markdowns on held-for-sale positions in the bridge book”. Noninterest expense was $16.9 billion, up 3%, driven by higher volume- and revenue-related expense and investments, as well as higher legal expense, partially offset by lower structural expense.

As a result, JPM recorded profits of just $2.865BN, down 69% Y/Y, the biggest annual drop since the Lehman quarter…

… and the lowest since 2013 as the largest US bank recorded a surge in credit losses to $8.3BN, up from $1.5 billion a year ago, mostly in the form of a reserve build as JPM braced for a surge in defaults linked to the coronavirus crisis.

Before we dig into the rest of the results, here is what everyone was looking for: the bank announced that it had added a whopping $6.8 billion in reserves this quarter, while keeping its net charge offs flat on Q/Q and Y/Y. The total provision for credit losses was $8.3 billion….

… “driven by reserve builds which reflect deterioration in the macro-economic environment as a result of the impact of COVID-19 and continued pressure on oil prices.”

Separately, JPM also reported that the impact of CECL adoption lifted reserves by $4.3 billion, which together with the $6.8 billion Covid-19 related reserve build, took the firmwide total of $14.3BN at the end of 2019 and almost doubled it to $25.4 billion.

Detailing the breakdown, JPM said that the Consumer reserve build was $4.4 billion, predominantly in Card, and the Wholesale reserve build was $2.4 billion across multiple sectorswith the largest impacts in the Oil & Gas, Real Estate, and Consumer & Retail industries.

And this is just the start: looking ahead, JPM said that expects more net reserve builds in Q2 2020.

To demonstrate just how major the impact from Covid-19 – for which the bank had reserved $6.8 billion – was, the bank showed a chart detailing the changes in March activity.

Of note, JPMorgan customers spent $266 billion using their debit and credit cards last quarter, and the bank uses that spending data to come up with all sorts of insights into Americans’ spending habits as BBG reported. One thing the charts above show is that according to the data, spending on travel and entertainment fell by close to 100% compared to last year. Meanwhile, spending at supermarkets, wholesale clubs and discount stores nearly doubled at some point last month (when compared to the same period last year).

We’ll get back to the bank’s balance sheet shortly, but first let’s look at the rest of the company’s operations, starting with investment banking and trading, where we saw an impressive surge in results with JPM reporting FICC sales & trading revenue of $4.99 billion, a whopping +34% increase and far better than the estimate of $4.11 billion “driven by strong client activity across products”

Q1 equities sales & trading revenue also surged on the March market chaos, rising to $2.24 billion, or up +28% y/y, high above the estimate of $2.05 billion “predominantly driven by higher revenue in derivatives.”

Meanwhile, Investment banking revenue collapsed nearly in half, and at just $886 million it was down 49% y/y, missing badly the estimate of $1.79 billion.  Advisory revenue of $503 million was lower than what analysts anticipated. The same goes for the equity underwriting business, which produced revenue of $331 million, lower than the $344 million analysts anticipated. However, debt underwriting looks to have made up for those shortcomings. Revenue from debt capital markets came in at $1.073 billion, way higher than the $877 million that analysts called for.

And even as IB fees were up 3%, reflecting higher debt and equity underwriting fees, largely offset by lower advisory fees, JPM reported that it recorded $820mm of markdowns on HFS positions in the “bridge book.” What is the bridge book? “The bridge book consists of certain held-for-sale positions, including unfunded commitments, in CIB and CB.” Expect questions on the earnings call for more details on these markdowns, and also expect questions on the called “credit adjustments and other” which swung to a loss of $951 million, with the bank saying it’s primarily due to ”
funding spread widening on derivatives.”

Stepping away from FICC, JPM reported that its Q1 net yield on interest-earning assets was 2.37%, sharply below the 2.56% last year y/y, but above the estimate of 2.34%.

Jamie Dimon said clients had drawn a whopping $50 billion on existing revolvers and the firm has also approved about $25 billion in new credit extensions just in March. The firm also helped clients raise about $380 billion in the investment grade debt market,. Analysts will want to know if that type of client activity is slowing down at all or if they’re still seeing huge demands for clients to draw down on their revolving credit lines.

Also notable is that JPMorgan had revved up its mortgage lending last quarter, nearly doubling originations to about $32 billion, which is odd in light of the recent news that the bank would boost its mortgage origination standards and also get out of the non PPP loan issuance business.

The outlook was cloudy. Looking ahead, JPM cut its 2020 Net Interest Income forecast, and now sees $55.5BN for the full year, down from $57BN guided in its investor day just a few months ago, and down from $57.8BN for the full year 2019. JPM also sees FY 2020 adjusted expense of $65B.

The Q1 letter was notable for a lengthy letter and comments from CEO Jamie Dimon.

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, commented: “My heart goes out to the communities and individuals, including healthcare workers and first responders, most deeply hit by the COVID-19 crisis. Throughout our history, JPMorgan Chase has built its reputation on being there for clients, customers and communities in the most critical times. This unprecedented environment is no different. We will do everything in our power to help the world recover from this global crisis.”

Dimon added: “The company entered this crisis in a position of strength, and we remain well capitalized and highly liquid – with a CET1 ratio of 11.5% and total liquidity resources of over $1 trillion. And JPMorgan Chase performed well in what was a very tough and unique operating environment – growing deposits in every line of business and providing loans as we extended credit and served as a port in the storm for our clients and customers. In the first quarter, the underlying results of the company were extremely good, however given the likelihood of a fairly severe recession, it was necessary to build credit reserves of $6.8B, resulting in total credit costs of $8.3B for the quarter.”

Dimon commented on the results: “The first quarter delivered some unprecedented challenges and required us to focus on what we as a bank could do – outside of our ordinary course of business – to remain strong, resilient and well-positioned to support all of our stakeholders. In Consumer & Community Banking, we have remained focused on meeting our customers’ needs. Approximately three quarters of our 5,000 branches have been open – all with heightened safety procedures and many with drive-through options – and the vast majority of our over 16,000 ATMs remain open. In March alone, we opened half a million new accounts for our card customers and extended over $6 billion of new and increased credit lines, and we were active in Home Lending and Auto. We lent over $500 million to small businesses in the month and we’re now actively supporting the SBA’s Paycheck Protection Program. For the quarter, we continued to see flows into both client investment assets and deposits.”

Dimon continued: “We continued to support our wholesale clients throughout this challenging period, as they drew over $50 billion on their existing lines. We also provided over $25 billion of new credit extensions in March for companies most impacted by the crisis and helped our clients execute record Investment Grade bond issuances this quarter. In Commercial Banking, we partnered closely with clients on their liquidity needs, increasing loans $25 billion and deposits $40 billion in the quarter. The Corporate & Investment Bank turned in another solid quarter with record Markets revenue, as we helped clients navigate extremely tough and volatile market conditions, and we maintained our #1 rank in Global IB fees as clients turned to us for financing and advice. And in Asset & Wealth Management, we saw strong growth in both loans and deposits, we took in $75 billion in liquidity flows, and more importantly we proactively reached out and helped clients manage their risk. In addition, JPMorgan Chase made a $50 million commitment to help address the immediate humanitarian crisis, as well as the long-term economic challenges that the most vulnerable people face. And the firm announced a $150 million loan program to help community partners get capital to underserved small businesses and nonprofits, particularly in the hardest hit communities.”

Dimon concluded: “I want to thank our more than 250,000 employees for remaining steadfast in helping our clients, customers, communities and governments and continuing to operate with the highest standards every day. I’m proud of the extraordinary effort by our call center employees, traders, bankers, portfolio managers, technology and operations teams across the globe. I also want to thank Daniel Pinto, Gordon Smith, our Operating Committee and our senior leaders for the exceptional leadership they have shown under the most difficult of circumstances. Finally, the countries and citizens of the global community will get through this unprecedented situation, undoubtedly stronger for it. Together, we will rise to the challenge.”

 

end

then these crooks also report lousy results

(zerohedge)

Wells Fargo Reports 1 Cent Profit After Loan Loss Provision Soars To $4 Billion

With JPM starting Q1 earnings season by taking a whopping $6.8 billion in covid-19 loan loss reserves in Q1, it appears that the bank is bracing for even more pain in Q2, even if the number was enough to allow JPM to report a profit in Q1 (albeit down some 69%, or the most since the financial crisis) instead of an outright loss. Moments after JPM, Wells Fargo followed suit, when it reported a surge in credit costs in the first quarter, setting aside $4 billion in loan-loss provisions in the first quarter, almost five times what it allocated a year ago and the most in a decade. Amusingly, despite this surge in provisions, Wells too reported an EPS profit, but the smallest possible of just 1 cent (!), down from $1.20 a year ago.

Net income dropped 89% to $653MM from $5.860BN a year ago, as a result of the following provisions:

  • $4.0 billion of provision expense for credit losses
    • $2.9 billion reserve build for loans
    • $909 million of net charge-offs for loans
    • $172 million of provision expense for debt securities, including $141 million reserve build (1) and $31 million in net charge-offs
  • $950 million of securities impairment
  • $621 million of net losses on equity securities from deferred compensation plan investment results, which were largely offset by a $598 million decline in employee benefits expense
  • $464 million of operating losses
  • $463 million gain on the sale of residential mortgage loans, reclassified to held for sale in 2019
  • $379 million of mortgage banking income vs. $783 million in 4Q19 on higher losses on loans held for sale, and higher

As Bloomberg points out, provisions for credit losses were $1.7 billion in community banking alone, which pretty much wiped out the division’s profit, down 95% from a year ago. Net interest income in the segment were little changed despite falling interest rates.

Net loan charge-offs were $909 million in the quarter, up about 18%. Reserve build was $3.1 billion, which was four times a year ago. CECL accounting is forcing banks to build up reserves faster on expectations of loans going bad. Thus even though charge-offs are slower to rise, reserves have to be built up front when the economy is doing bad.

“Wells Fargo plays an important role in the financial system and the economic strength of our country, and we take our responsibility seriously, particularly in these unprecedented times,” Scharf said in a statement Tuesday.

The San Francisco-based lender, and Warren Buffett’s favorite bank, has been constrained by a Federal Reserve order limiting bank assets to their end-of-2017 level following a series of scandals at the bank, though it was granted a temporary break last week to expand lending to small businesses. Total assets were just above that level at the end of the first quarter. Scharf said last week that Wells Fargo extended almost $70 billion in new and increased commitments and outstanding loans in March alone.

The bank was quick to assure the Fed that both its Tier 1 Ratio and its LCR Ratios were well above the regulatory minimum.

CFO John Shrewsberry outlined activities during the first quarter: “Commercial loans grew by $52 billion, deposits increased by $54 billion, we originated $48 billion of residential mortgage loans, and we raised $47 billion of debt capital for our clients.”

As expected, cash flooded the bank in this uncertain time, with period end deposits up $112.5BN to $1.4 trillion. Deposits have been flowing in to banks as lower interest rates and declining markets typically shift funds from money market funds and securities investments.

Commercial and industrial loans jumped $50.9 billion, largely as clients drew on their revolving credit lines because of the pandemic.

That said, consumer loans were down $4.4 billion from the previous quarter due to declines in credit card and mortgages.

And something unexpected: despite the plunge in rates to all time lows, in Q1, Wells reported that its Net Interest Income actually rose to $11.3BN, from $11.2BN, a NIM of 2.58%, up from 2.53% in Q4, although there was less here than meets the eye, and the rebound was largely driven by subsequent adjustments, to wit:

  • $356 million higher hedge ineffectiveness accounting results reflecting large interest rate changes in the quarter
  • $84 million lower MBS premium amortization resulting from lower prepays
  • Partially offset by balance sheet repricing, including the impact of the lower interest rate environment, and one fewer day in the quarter.

Meanwhile, the NIM of 2.58% which was up 5 bps LQ and included:

  • ~8 bps from hedge ineffectiveness accounting results
  • ~2 bps from MBS premium amortization
  • ~(5) bps from balance sheet mix and repricing

In other words, without the adjustments, NIM would have been flat Q/Q.

 

Curiously, interest Income rose even as average earning assets declined by $1.2 billion LQ:

  • Debt securities down $7.0 billion
  • Mortgage loans held for sale down $3.6 billion
  • Short-term investments / fed funds sold down $1.6 billion
  • Equity securities down $746 million
  • Loans up $8.5 billion

Noninterest income was uglier, dropping 31% Y/Y to $6.4BN from $9.3BN a year ago.

Finally, on staffing, Scharf says the company has enabled about 180,000 employees to work remotely, and with approximately 260,000 employees at year-end, which means about 69% if its staff are able to work remotely

END

BOEING

Boeing tumbles after customers cancel a record 150 Max plane orders

(zerohedge)

Boeing Tumbles After Customers Cancel Record 150 MAX Airplane Orders In March

In case stocks needed another reason to soar higher with 20% unemployment, 30% mortgage defaults, GDP about to print at -40%, cratering corporate profits, JPMorgan profit crashing 69% with Jamie Dimon warning of a “severe recession”, Boeing delivered moments ago when the company reported that customers cancelled a record number of orders for the 737 Max lead balloon last month, deepening the crisis the company faces between the coronavirus pandemic which has virtually frozen all commercial air flight and the continued grounding of its best-selling plane after two fatal crashes.

The US planemaker reported a total of 150 MAX cancellations in March, including 75 previously reported from Irish leasing company Avolon. New cancellations came from buyers including 34 of 135 aircraft ordered by Brazil’s GOL.

Boeing, facing a 13-month-old freeze on deliveries of the MAX and now disruption to deliveries of larger planes due to the coronavirus epidemic, said it had delivered 50 planes in the first quarter, nearly a third of the 149 seen a year earlier.

Net cancellations in the month totaled 119 thanks to 31 orders for wide-body passenger planes and military aircraft. The company also delivered 20 jetliners in the month. For the entire first quarter, net orders sank to a negative 307 planes (i.e., cancellations), a sharp turnaround for a company that just over a year ago was aiming to increase output of its planes to meet strong demand.

Boeing also said that it removed 139 MAX orders from its backlog which as of this moment has 5,049 jet orders, a number which is set to plunge in coming months.

“We are working closely with our customers, many of whom are facing significant financial pressures, to review their fleet plans and make adjustments where appropriate,” Boeing said in a statement. “At the same time, Boeing continues to adjust its order book to adapt to lower-than-planned 737 MAX production in the near term.”

In a bizarre twist, this bad news was not enough to send Boeing shares soaring, which tumbled more than 3% shortly after the company posted the dismal figures, trading near session lows.

Boeing will release first-quarter earnings on April 29, when executives are expected to detail the financial damage from virus and whether the company which repurchased $60 billion in stock in the past 5 years pushing its debt to all time high, will resort to a government bailout.

END

USA/CHINA

It begins: Hawley introduces a bill to strip China of its sovereign immunity and thus allow private lawsuits over the COVID 19

(zerohedge)

Sen. Hawley Announces Bill To Strip China Of Sovereign Immunity; Would Allow Private Lawsuits Over COVID-19

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) is introducing a bill which would “hold the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) responsible for causing the COVID-19 global pandemic,” Hawley announced on Tuesday.

The Justice for Victims of COVID-19 Act would strip China of its immunity in US courts, allowing private parties to sue the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over its handling of the disease, which originated in Wuhan, China. The legislation would also create a Justice for Victims of COVID-19 Task Force within the US State Department which would investigate Beijing’s handling of the outbreak, as well as secure compensation from the CCP.

Josh Hawley

@HawleyMO

Today I’m announcing legislation to hold accountable. My bill would strip China of its immunity in US courts and create a private right of action against the Chinese Communist Party for silencing whistleblowers & withholding critical information about

There is overwhelming evidence that the Chinese Communist Party’s lies, deceit, and incompetence caused COVID-19 to transform from a local disease outbreak into a global pandemic,” said Hawley in a statement, adding: “We need an international investigation to learn the full extent of the damage the CCP has inflicted on the world and then we need to empower Americans and other victims around the world to recover damages. The CCP unleashed this pandemic. They must be held accountable to their victims.

According to Hawley’s press release:

The Justice for Victims of COVID-19 Act will:

  • Make the Chinese government liable for civil claims in U.S. courts by:
    • Creating a private right of action against the Chinese government for any reckless action it took that caused the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, such as its decisions to withhold information and to gag doctors;
    • Stripping the Chinese government of sovereign immunity for these actions so that plaintiffs can sue; and
    • Allowing courts to freeze Chinese government assets so victims can enforce their claims;
  • Establish the Justice for Victims of COVID-19 Task Force at the State Department to:
    • Lead an international investigation to determine how Beijing’s decisions to distort and conceal information about the COVID-19 outbreak—including by using the World Health Organization to parrot its lies—caused this global pandemic; and
    • Lead an international effort to secure compensation from the Chinese government, including by preparing options to compel Beijing to provide restitution, if at first it resists international demands for the same.

In a March Op-Ed at Fox News, Hawley called for an investigation into “Beijing’s disastrous handling of the coronavirus,” writing: “The Chinese Communist Party is responsible for the coronavirus pandemic – and it knows it. That’s why Beijing has gone on a propaganda offensive to try to deflect blame anywhere it can, including right here at the United States.”

The Chinese Communist Party has done everything it can to hide the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. Party officials interrogated and punished Chinese doctors who tried to warn others as the virus began to spread. They ordered laboratories to stop testing for the virus and destroy their samples when it became clear that an outbreak was underway. They even sat on evidence showing the virus could be transmitted between humans. By the time they shared that information, the virus had already spread to other nations. -Sen. Hawley (3.30.2020)

In response to Hawley’s announcement, CCP media mouthpiece – China Daily‘s EU Bureau Chief Chen Weihua – retweeted a video montage refuting anti-China claims by Hawley and others.

Chen Weihua

@chenweihua

US Senators Tom Cotton and Josh Hawley and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo proved major source of disinformation. Video clip truly revealing. https://twitter.com/ribiaoc/status/1250078991106674689 

Ribiao Chen@RibiaoC

Who is liar? Who is spreading #Disinformation ?#COVIDー19

Embedded video

Another major problem:  the used auto market is on the verge of collapse:
(zerohedge)

“An Unpleasant Truth”: Used Auto Market On Verge Of Collapse That Could Cost Companies Billions

As if we weren’t getting a clear enough picture of the auto industry imploding as a result of new car sales plunging, the industry is now warning about a used-car price collapse. 

The collapse is coming as a result of used vehicle auctions grinding to a halt – along with the rest of the country – and vehicles piling up at places where buyers and sellers transact secondhand cars, according to Bloomberg.

A price drop in used vehicles could be another headwind for automakers and their lending units, which could be forced to write down the value of lease contracts that had previously assumed vehicles would retain more value. GM, for example, has $30.4 billion worth of leased vehicles on its books at the end of last year. Every 100 bps it has to raise its estimate for depreciation costs the company $304 million.

Joel Levington, a credit analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence said:

“GM assumed a 4% decline in residual values this year. If the 10% drop Manheim has seen recently persists, depreciation expense could counter the $1.9 billion that GM Financial earned in pretax profit last year.”

A similar headwind could be felt by rental car companies, who would likely get less money from selling their used fleet of vehicles, which are also sitting idly by as the pandemic paralyzes the nation.

Hertz, Avis and Enterprise have all sought help from the Treasury Department for loans, tax breaks and other types of support.

Hamzah Mazari, a

Jefferies analyst, said:

“For Hertz and Avis, every 1% increase in fleet costs saps about $20 million from earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.”

Dale Pollak, an executive vice president of Cox Automotive said

“Six months from now, there will be huge, if not unprecedented, levels of wholesale supply in the market. Cars are coming in, but they aren’t selling. Today’s huge supply of wholesale inventory suggests supplies will be even larger in the months ahead.”

Automakers are already offering customers one-month lease extensions, which could help delay the number of vehicles heading to auction. But these efforts are unlikely to make a material impact, especially given that 17 million people filed for unemployment over the last three weeks.

Maryann Keller, a former Wall Street analyst who’s now an auto-industry consultant said: “There aren’t a lot of people in gloves and masks running out to buy cars. Auctions are mostly shut down and they’re filled with cars that have no buyers.”

Used car sales plunged 64% in the last week of March and its estimates that prices have fallen about 10% in recent weeks. 

Pollak noted: “It’s critical for dealers to recognize what may be an unpleasant truth. It might take all the cash you can gather to sustain your business today and put it in a position to be viable when the market comes back.”

Numbers out of major automakers last week confirmed a worst case scenario: that the global pandemic is doing severe (and potentially irreversible) damage to an industry that was in ugly shape even before the coronavirus outbreak began.

GM saw sales plunge 7.1% and Fiat saw sales drop 10% for the first quarter of 2020, both larger than expected declines.

Toyota’s sales fell 37% in March, with even its best-selling RAV4 dropping 25%. Nissan had the weakest quarterly results, posting a 30% drop in sales for the first three months of the year. More than 25% of Nissan’s dealers are being negatively affected by state ordinances limiting sales.

Finally, just days ago, we noted that May is being considered a “make it or break it” month for auto suppliers.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Ford shares slide 4.5% on first-quarter revenue warning

  • Ford expects a pretax loss of about $600 million, excluding $300 million in special items.
  • Total revenue for the first quarter is expected to be about $34 billion, down 15.7% from a year ago.   https://cnb.cx/2Rw3Um0

Fear of an Impending Car-Price Collapse Grips Auto Industry – Used-vehicle auctions are for now virtually paralyzed, much like the rest of the economy… and that this imbalance will last for months… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/fear-of-an-impending-car-price-collapse-grips-the-auto-industry

Trump Says Global Oil Cut Will Be About 20 Million Barrels

OPEC+ publicly agreed to cut 9.7 million barrels a day

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/trump-says-global-oil-cut-will-be-about-20-million-barrels

Cuomo Says Northeast Governors Will Coordinate Reopenings [no details yet]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/cuomo-says-governors-to-unveil-plan-to-coordinate-reopenings

The ensuing rally ended at 12:17 ET.  ESMs and stocks then went inert, trading in tight coil until the usual last-hour ESM manipulation appeared, abetted by this: CA Gov. Says Tomorrow He’ll Release Plan on How to Reopen State, Says OR, WA, CA Have Framework to Reopen State – Bloomberg

@GretaLWall: The White House names a new council to lead efforts to reopen US economy.  Members:

COS Mark Meadows, First Daughter Ivanka Trump, Senior Adviser Jared Kushner, Treasury Secy Steven Mnuchin, Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow, Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer, Commerce Secy Wilbur Ross

Ivanka and Jared!  Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but ESMs declined 20 handles after the WH reopen team was announced.  At least three of these members should NOT be on the team.

We have regularly opined that Trump’s biggest mistake has been his staffing decisions.  He did not clean out Deep State adversaries or potential troublemakers like most presidents do when they arrive.  Then, according to reports, he deferred to Jared Kushner’s will in staffing decisions.  The life-long Democrat enlisted a passel of Democrats, Trump Haters and RINOs that leaked profusely to the MSM and undermined Trump incessantly.  We could not comprehend how Trump allowed so many Dems from Goldman Sachs into the fold – especially after GS forbade employees from contributing to Trump!!!

Mnuchin in the Middle: Between Trump and Democrats

When the White House wants to win over Democrats, President Trump sends in Steve Mnuchin…With more aid coming, some conservatives in the White House and on the Hill quietly complain that Mnuchin is the fox guarding the fiscal hen house…Mnuchin places a premium on winning Democratic approval for legislation…This is all too familiar to one former White House aide who said Mnuchin was in the habit of bragging about his relationships with Democrats on the Hill while overlooking Republicans. “Sending him to negotiate is like waving the white flag of surrender before the battle has even started,” the former aide told RCP. And according to a White House official with knowledge of the relief package negotiations, Mnuchin has a singular focus: the stock market

     “I’ve never been comfortable with a with a Democrat-Wall Street guynegotiating with Nancy Pelosi, who’s always more inclined to put Wall Street in front of mainstream interest,” the Republican representative explained. “That being said, it’s clear that he has the president’s respect.”…

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/13/mnuchin_in_the_middle_between_trump_and_democrats__142927.html

USA/Today: In four devastating weeks, Americans’ fears of the coronavirus have exploded

Americans’ attitudes have changed dramatically between USA TODAY/Ipsos polls taken March 10-11 and April 9-10. Those who said COVID-19 posed a “high threat” to: Global Economy 47% to 76%; Threat to America 34% to 71%...By an overwhelming 3-1, 69%-21%, Americans endorse a nationwide lockdown through the end of April, requiring people to stay at home except for essential work. The idea is backed by solid majorities across partisan lines, by 8 in 10 Democrats and 62% of Republicans…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/13/poll-americans-fears-covid-19-explode-four-devastating-weeks/2970032001/

The fear mongering that appeared during the third week of March, on egregiously wrong models, greatly changed attitudes about Covid.  Trump knows Americans desire, or will accept, a lockdown through April.  So, it’s time to plan for a gradual reopening, led by low-risk regions.  Plus, some low-risk regions are getting restless with the lockdown.

@AlexBerenson: Now this is viral growth: a North Carolina Facebook group called #ReopenNC began last Tuesday and has 21,000 members already; it is calling for a protest tomorrow. North Carolina, population 10.4 million, has 81 COVID deaths and 331 people hospitalized.

https://facebook.com/groups/1071729406534210/

Over a Fourth of Michigan’s Workforce Has Filed for Unemployment

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/over-a-fourth-of-michigan-s-workforce-has-filed-for-unemployment

With his reputation circling the drain, Dr. Fauci is trying to rewrite recent history.

Even CBS challenged Fauci!  @CBSNews: Dr. Anthony Fauci said in an interview Sunday that lives could’ve been saved if the U.S. acted sooner. But videos show him and other top officials in the Trump administration offering different guidance in the early days of coronavirushttps://cbsn.ws/3cedhyr

Trump Retweets Call to Fire Fauci… who accused Trump of ignoring his advice to institute social distancing in mid-February in an interview with CNN Sunday morning, saying that lives “could have been saved.” Trump himself did not directly comment on Fauci… Video from February 29 resurfaced of Fauci on the Today Show telling Americans they did not need to alter their behavior for the COVID-19 Chinese coronavirus.  Trump wrote, “Sorry Fake News, it’s all on tape. I banned China long before people spoke up. Thank you @AONN https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/trump-retweets-call-fire-fauci/

Trump on Dr. Fauci: “I’m not firing him… I think he’s terrific…

Fauci said he used ‘poor choice of words’ in CNN interview on coronavirus response

Fauci said Mondaythatthe president also immediately took his advice and that of other medical advisers on when to shut down foreign air travel from continental Europe, and later, the United Kingdom.  He said the president also immediately took his recommendation to engage in strong “mitigation,” or “social distancing” to shut down the U.S. economy to prevent the spread of the coronavirus…

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/fauci-said-he-used-poor-choice-words-cnn-interview-coronavirus-response#.XpTzNnZVP2M.twitter

Fauci’s NIAID Funded Wuhan Lab Scientists to Research Bat Coronavirus [in 2018]

Additionally, the Daily Mail reported that National Institutes of Health, of which Fauci’s NIAID is a member, provided a $3.7 million grant to the Wuhan Institute of Virology to study bat-borne coronavirus.

https://nationalfile.com/faucis-niaid-funded-wuhan-lab-scientists-to-research-bat-coronavirus/

Fauci’s agency NIAID funded a project that included scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which confirmed threat of Bat Coronavirus in April 2018.  Why did Fauci downplay the threat in 2020 during the outbreak? https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/new-coronavirus-emerges-bats-china-devastates-young-swine

@nytimes Jan 9: There’s no evidence that the virus, a coronavirus, is readily spread by humans, and it has not been tied to any deathsBut health officials in China and internationally are watching it carefully.   https://nyti.ms/39QI0Bl

@MichaelCoudrey: Bill Gates is funding a NY study to determine the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine. Guess what? It’s purposely designed to fail! Here’s the proof: 1. The “placebo” is ascorbic acid (Vitamin C) 2. People with symptoms ARE EXCLUDED Look for yourself   https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04328961\

Yesterday, at his daily Covid briefing, Trump played a video montage of the MSM downplaying Covid-19, their criticism of his ban on China and later European travel and recent clips of accolades for his travel ban.  Some reporters at the briefing yesterday were incensed.  CNN and MSNBC cut away from the briefing.  The MSM can gleefully hammer people 24/7; but when they are criticized, numerous reporters prove that they have the thinnest epidermis known to mankind.

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

 

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