APRIL 15A//GOLD DOWN $19.10 TO $1717.90//SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TO $15.35//AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX; ALMOST 93 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE//TRUMP STOPS FUNDING FOR THE WHO//OIL BREAKS THE 20 DOLLAR BARRIER BUT CLOSES JUST ABOVE IT//IN THE USA: RETAIL SALES PLUMMET//INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PLUMMETS//EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX CRASHES//USA BANKS DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOSS LOSS RESERVES TO WEATHER THE STORM//

GOLD:$1717.90  DOWN $19.10   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$15.35//DOWN  45 CENTS  London spot price

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1714.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $15.47//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $1725.10

MAY COMEX GOLD:  1729.20 1:30 PM

JUNE GOLD:  $1741.00  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $23.10

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER APRIL COMEX CLOSE: 15.70/

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $15.52…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY:  17 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 41/552

issued:  96

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,756.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/14/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 04/16/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
132 C SG AMERICAS 24
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 10
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 479
661 C JP MORGAN 96 41
686 C INTL FCSTONE 16 3
690 C ABN AMRO 412 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 10 4
800 C MAREX SPEC 3
905 C ADM 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 552 552
MONTH TO DATE: 29,410

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 552 NOTICE(S) FOR 55,200 OZ (1.716 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  29,410 NOTICES FOR 2,941,000 OZ  (91.477 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

 

 

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  25,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 806 for 4,025,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $6750 DOWN  169  

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $6731 DOWN $130

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

 

WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES (PAPER TONNES/NOT REAL STUFF)

 

GLD: 1,117.59 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN  45 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

TWO HUGE DEPOSITS OF SILVER WAS ADDED TO OUR SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT: A)1.679 MILLION OZ

AND B) 5.222 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 415.437  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY A STRONG SIZED 3308 CONTRACTS FROM 140,169 UP TO 143,477 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR HUGE 51 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A CONSIDERABLE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ALONG WITH A STRONG GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING. WE HAD A   VERY STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4025 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 668 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  791 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 668 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 668 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.340 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 51 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.145  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 51 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE TOTALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A VERY STRONG NET GAIN OF 3976 CONTRACTS OR 19.88 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER JUDGING BY THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MAY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

10,232 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 10,232 CONTRACTS) OR 51.160 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1136 CONTRACTS OR 5.684 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 51.160 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 7.30% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          944.64 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR                   51.16 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3308, WITH THE HUGE $0.51 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 668 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4025 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 51 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 668 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3308 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 51 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.80 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY AS WELL AS A GOOD INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING//AMOUNT STANDING!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7005 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.2% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: NOTICE(S) FOR   25,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.145 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1863 CONTRACTS TO 489,965 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR VERY STRONG COMEX GAIN IN PRICE  OF $23.55 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD NO ISSUANCE OF OUR NEW 4 GC CONTRACT

 

WE GAINED A GOOD 3071 CONTRACTS  (9.552 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 4047 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 4047.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 4047.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 489,965. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2,184 CONTRACTS: 1863 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4047 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2184 CONTRACTS OR 6.793 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF $23.55 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT HUGE GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 6.973 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (ROSE $23.55). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC ISSUANCE:  ZERO

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD  A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (4047) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1863 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2184 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A MONSTROUS INCREASE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT HUGE GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 48,849 CONTRACTS OR 4,884,900 oz OR 151.94 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5427 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 151.94 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 151.94/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2474.84  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

 

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               151.94  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3308 CONTRACTS FROM 140,169 UP TO 143,477 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 668 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 668; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 668 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE STRONG COMEX OI GAIN  OF 3308 CONTRACTS TO THE 668 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 3976 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  19.88 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ//APRIL 4.145 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 51 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 668 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.11 POINTS OR 0.57%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 290.06 POINTS OR 1.19%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 88.72 POINTS OR 0.45%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .35%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0620 /Oil DOWN TO 19.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and 28.46 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0620 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0681 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 1863 CONTRACTS TO 489,965 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS FAIR COMEX OI LOSS WAS SET DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $23.55 IN GOLD PRICING //TUESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (4047 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH THAT HUGE STANDING  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 3071 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD ZERO 4- GC CONTRACT ISSUANCE

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4047 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 4047 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4047 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  2184 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4047 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A FAIR SIZED 1863 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERUNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE BY A STRONG $23.55). THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 6.793 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2184 CONTRACTS OR 218,400 OZ OR 6.793 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  489,965 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 48.99 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1523 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1523/2200 OR 69.26% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 183,734 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY262,532 contracts//

APRIL 15

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
96,447.945 oz
INCL 10,000 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

414,641.450

OZ

BRINKS

HSBC

JPMORGAN

LOOMIS

 

 

INCL. 12,399

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
552 notice(s)
 55,200 OZ
(1.7169 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
427 contracts
(42700 oz)
1.328 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
29,410 notices
2,941,000 OZ
91.477 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

i ) We had 0 deposits into the dealer

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 4 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Brinks:  16,001.600 oz

ii) Into HSBC: 32,151.000 OZ  (1,000 KILOBARS)

iii) Into JPMorgan: 353,661.000 oz (11,000 kilobars)

iv) Into Loomis:  12,827.850 oz (399 kilobars)

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 414,641.450   oz

 

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  32,151.000 oz (1,000 kilobars)

ii) Out of  HSBC: 64,296.945 oz (2,000 kilobars)

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 96,447.945   oz

We had 5  kilo transactions

 

We had zero  4 KC bar transaction

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1

dealer to the customer

JPM: 19,389.982 oz was adjusted from the dealer to the customer account

 

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 979 contracts for a LOSS of ONLY  206 contacts. We had 738 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A VERY STRONG 532  contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 53,200 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and they also negated a fiat bonus

 

 

May saw its ANOTHER GAIN of 473 contracts to stand at  4980.

June saw a  LOSS OF 4452 contracts DOWN to 348,082

 

 

We had 552 notices filed today for 55,200 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 96 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 552 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 41 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (29,410) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (979 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (552 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,983,700 OZ OR 92.81 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (29,410)x 100 oz + (979 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today -(552) x 100 oz which equals 2,983,700 oz standing OR 92.81 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

THIS GREATLY SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42. TONES OF GOLD STANDING IN ANY MONTH

We gained 532 contracts OR an additional 53,200 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the this side of the pond, first before travelling to London..

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

341,434.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.62 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  560,194.208  OZ OR 17.424  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 125.433 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  4,573,579.677 oz or 142.257  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  540,904.208 oz or 16.824 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 4,032,675.4  (125.433 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  4,032,675,4 (125.433 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  13,696,519.086 oz (426.01 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   18,270,098.763 oz 568.27 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   148.256 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  420.155 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

April 14/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3308 CONTRACTS FROM 140,169 UP TO 143,477 (AND MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR STRONG OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE 51 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/TUESDAY.  THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A CONSIDERABLE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION OCCURRING WITH OUR ZERO SILVER ADVANCE. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 28 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 3201  DOWN TO 50,017.

JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 16 CONTRACTS RISING TO 51.

 

 

We, today, had  5 notice(s) FILED  for 25000, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

APRIL 15/2019

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 658,651.269 oz
CNT
DELAWARE

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
5
CONTRACT(S)
(25,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
23 contracts
 115,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  806 contracts

4,025,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into everybody else; 0

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.170 million

total customer deposits today: 607,477.800   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of CNT:  650,618.369 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 8032.900  oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  658,651.269   oz

We had 2 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

i) Scotia:  354,301.800 oz

ii) CNT: 4941.700

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.788 million

total dealer + customer silver:  319.111 million oz

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 5 contract(s) FOR 25000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 806 x 5,000 oz = 4,025,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.(28) and the number of notices served upon today 5 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 806 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (28)- number of notices served upon today (5) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.equals 4,145,000 oz.

WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 20,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT  THE COMEX.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 58,997 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY:  93,250 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 93,250 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 466 million  OZ  66.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO +1.24% ((APRIL 15/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO +0.17% to NAV:   (APRIL 14/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 1.24%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.76 TRADING 15.79///PREMIUM TO NAV: 0.21

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

APRIL 15/2020/  1117.59 tonnes*

IN LAST 799 TRADING DAYS:   +71.25 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 699 TRADING DAYS;+246.23  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

 

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

 

 

APRIL 15.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

415.437 MILLION OZ.

END

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 5.32/ and libor 6 month duration 1.16

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 4.16

gold non existent..only gold vapour exists!

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.73%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION:1.03

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.70%

gold non existent

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Safe Haven Gold To Protect As ‘Great Lockdown’ To Create Great Depression

Gold in USD – 3 DaysGold gained another 2% yesterday to hit its highest since late 2012 as investors rush to the safety of bullion as lockdowns ravage economies and see the rollout of huge stimulus and bailouts.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold slips as investors lock in profits, recession fears cap losses

Gold’s Powerful Rally Brings $1,800 Into View

Gold rallies to over 7-year high as virus sparks depression fears

Goldman says downturn will be four times worse than the financial crisis

Asia shares take a breather, China cuts medium-term rates

Oil in the age of coronavirus: a U.S. shale bust like no other

Trump cuts WHO funding over coronavirus, global toll mounts

Three top Wall Street banks have $7.4 trillion in off-balance-sheet exposures

Gold Sparkles as “The Great Lockdown” Hammers the Global Economy

Gold in Euros – 3 Days

 

“Yes It Will. The Only Question Is When” – Watch Here

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

14-Apr-20 1715.85 1741.90, 1367.36 1383.07 & 1567.91 1588.26
09-Apr-20 1662.50 1680.65, 1339.48 1348.22 & 1529.00 1538.13
08-Apr-20 1649.05 1647.80, 1328.27 1330.27 & 1517.00 1513.14
07-Apr-20 1652.20 1649.25, 1344.23 1333.75 & 1519.53 1511.21
06-Apr-20 1636.60 1648.30, 1330.72 1341.06 & 1515.49 1526.66
03-Apr-20 1609.75 1613.10, 1310.66 1315.97 & 1490.47 1495.34
02-Apr-20 1588.05 1616.80, 1277.59 1307.02 & 1452.27 1489.72
01-Apr-20 1594.25 1576.55, 1288.95 1270.23 & 1457.94 1442.86
31-Mar-20 1604.65 1608.95, 1299.61 1296.81 & 1461.52 1468.81
30-Mar-20 1624.35 1618.30, 1312.56 1305.97 & 1466.88 1466.02

Editors Note: The shortage of gold bullion coins and bars continues and may deepen as prices move higher. It is not just smaller one ounce bullion coins and bars that are difficult to source but also larger gold and silver bars including gold kilo bars (32.15 ozs) worth and 1,000 oz silver bars. Due to our direct relationships with government mints and refineries we continue to source large bars and some gold coins and bars in 1 oz formats.

Receive Our Award Winning Market Updates In Your Inbox – Sign Up Here

Mark O’Byrne

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Very important:  Wall Street banks are not well capitalized and they have 7.4 trillion dollars in off balance sheet exposure.  This exposure will now come into play with the global economy screeching to a halt

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Three top Wall Street banks have $7.4 trillion in off-balance-sheet exposures

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Tuesday, April 14, 2020

In the past few weeks everyone from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen to bank analyst Mike Mayo have appeared on television to tell the American people that the big banks on Wall Street are well capitalized. To put it in Janet Yellen’s exact words on CNBC last Thursday, “We have a strong, well-capitalized banking system.”

… 

These folks have to keep repeating this mantra because the public is getting curious as to why the New York Fed has had to pump a cumulative $9 trillion in cash into these Wall Street banks, since September 17 of last year, if they are so well capitalized. Can big banks actually be well capitalized and have no liquid money to make loans — the key function of a bank? As we have regularly noted, the Fed’s trillions of dollars in cash infusions to the banks began months before there was any coronavirus outbreak anywhere in the world.

The reality is that the U.S. banking system looks well capitalized only if federal regulators, banking analysts, and the mainstream business press put blinders on and don’t look at what’s hiding in off-balance-sheet items at the banking behemoths on Wall Street — the same fatal mistake they all made in the years leading up to the 2008 collapse. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/04/three-of-the-biggest-banks-on-wal…

END

Craig Hemke is stating the obvious:  the comex is broken:  they have asked the CFTC not to disclose that they cannot deliver any gold/silver.

(Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Comex search and seizure

 Section: 

8:30p ET Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing tonight at Sprott Money, says the New York Commodities Exchange has been caught without enough metal to deliver against contracts and now has asked the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission not to disclose how the exchange is papering things over, still without delivering.

Hemke writes: “The scramble for physical gold (and silver) is on and if you don’t hold it, you don’t own it. All of this bank and exchange scheming should prove, once and for all, that there is no transparency, fairness, and honest operation within the bullion bank fractional-reserve and digital-derivative pricing scheme. Instead, there are lies, cover-ups, distortions, illusions, charades, deceptions, tricks, gimmicks, counterfeits, deceit, duplicity, and frauds.”

Hemke’s commentary is headlined “Comex Search and Seizure” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/comex-search-seizure-craig-hemke-april-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0620/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0681   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 16.11 POINTS OR 0.57%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 290.06 POINTS OR 1.19%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 88.72 POINTS OR 0.45%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.54/Euro FALLS TO 1.0911

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.43/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 19.57 and Brent: 28.46

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.45%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.89% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.85%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.34: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.06

3k Gold at $1719.00 silver at: 15.50   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 148/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.49

3m oil into the 19 dollar handle for WTI and 28 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.43 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9654 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0533 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.45%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.05% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.33%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8880..

Global Markets Tumble Amid Dismal Earnings After WTI Crashes To 18 Year Low

US index futures slumped on Wednesday for a second time this week, reversing Tuesday’s sharp gains after a plunge in oil prices pressured energy stocks ahead of what is expected to be a dismal round of first-quarter earnings reports. The dollar and Treasuries gained as investors fled risk assets, while WTI crude plunged below $20, to the lowest level since 2002 after the IEA said oil demand will drop by over 9 million barrels a day this year, wiping out a decade of consumption growth.

Contracts on all three major U.S. gauges retreated after the S&P 500 closed at a one-month high on Tuesday, with the Emini trading back under 2,800. UnitedHealth Group, the biggest U.S. health insurer, reported a fall in quarterly profit, but its shares rose 2.6% in premarket trading as it maintained its 2020 profit outlook at a time when major companies have withdrawn forecasts due to the coronavirus pandemic. J.C. Penney slumped 14.7% as sources said the retailer was exploring filing for bankruptcy protection after the virus outbreak upended its turnaround plans.

The S&P 500 index climbed about 30% from its March trough, lifted by a raft of U.S. monetary and fiscal stimulus and on early signs that coronavirus cases were peaking in some hotspots, but is still down about 16% from its record high. The index jumped another 3% on Tuesday on hopes the Trump administration could move to ease lockdowns as the outbreak showed signs of ebbing. However, hotspot New York later sharply raised its official virus death toll to more than 10,000. Oil majors Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron slipped about 3% as oil prices tumbled, pressured by reports suggesting persistent oversupply and collapsing global demand.

JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo kicked off the earnings season on Tuesday by reporting a slump in quarterly profits and setting aside billions of dollars to cover potential loan defaults. Moments ago Bank of America joined them (post coming shortly).

“It’s really going to be about forward guidance,” Erin Gibbs, president and CEO at Gibbs Wealth Management LLC, said on Bloomberg TV. “What we’re really going to be looking for is, are companies giving us an idea of when they think they’ll return to profitability, or, are they talking about more layoffs?”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index headed for its first drop in six sessions, led by energy companies, as crude oil in New York fell below $20 a barrel amid a global slump in demand.  French shares fell 0.9% as France became the fourth country to report more than 15,000 deaths due to the coronavirus after Italy, Spain and the United States. ASML Holding NV, a supplier to Samsung Electronics Co., reported a 40% drop in first-quarter earnings and refrained from providing guidance amid uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Dutch GPS and digital mapping company TomTom shed 2.7% after saying it expected negative free cash flow this year and lower revenue from its automotive and consumer businesses due to the pandemic. London-based asset manager Jupiter Fund Management dropped 5.6% after reporting an 18.3% drop in assets under management in the first quarter as fears over the pandemic rattled financial markets.

Much economic damage has also already been done, with the International Monetary Fund predicting the world this year would suffer its steepest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Ahead of a steady stream of results due in the coming weeks, signs of corporate stress caused by the pandemic are widespread.

“A lot of good news has been priced in and we’re due for some consolidation, particularly as we head into earnings season as we all know the numbers will not be good,” Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, led by energy and finance, after rising in the last session. Shares in Tokyo were little changed, Chinese and Hong Kong stocks slipped, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating 0.6%, with Baotou Huazi Industry and Wuxi Shangji Automation posting the biggest slides. Australian equities dropped as a record slump in consumer confidence reminded investors of the impact of the pandemic on spending. The yuan dipped after China’s central bank eased policy further. Markets in the region were mixed, with Taiwan’s Taiex Index and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index rising, and Jakarta Composite and Thailand’s SET falling.

European Union and U.S. federal officials are drafting plans to lift restrictions in an effort to mitigate the economic devastation, even as global virus infections edge closer to the 2 million mark. The earnings season should provide a better sense of how the pandemic will affect commerce as the global economy heads for a deep recession. Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase & Co.and Wells Fargo & Co. offered a mixed picture Tuesday, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. next up.

The big overnight mover was WTI, which tumbled fell below $20 a barrel after the International Energy Agency said demand would slump by a record this year despite a historic production cut dealWTI futures fell as much as 4.5% in New York to the lowest since 2002. Oil demand will drop by over 9 million barrels a day this year, wiping out a decade of consumption growth, the IEA said, exhausting storage by mid-year. While Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers have pledged to cut supply starting next month, they continue to flood the market in April. Stockpiles are rising everywhere and weakening key physical market gauges. New York oil futures moved deeper into contango, signaling an expanding glut, while swap prices indicate North Sea cargoes are trading at bumper discounts.

The IEA said consumption in April will fall by almost a third to the lowest level since 1995, and make this year the worst in the history of the oil market. Despite OPEC+’s efforts to balance supply, global inventories will accumulate by 12 million barrels a day in the first half of the year and “overwhelm the logistics of the oil industry” in the coming weeks, it warned.  The massive OPEC+ deal to cut production starts next month. Until then the battle for market share persists with Abu Dhabi cutting its crude pricing for Asia. It follows a similar move by Saudi Arabia earlier in the week.

In Rates, 10Y Yields dropped as low as 0.67% after trading closing at 0.75% on Tuesday. Italian bonds remained under pressure amid lingering disappointment with the half-a-trillion euro plan to support coronavirus-hit economies agreed by euro zone finance ministers last week. Italy’s 2-year bond yield was last up 5 basis points to 0.89% after rising nearly 20 bps on Tuesday Ten-year yields were flat at 1.79%. The closely watched gap with Germany’s 10-year bond yield, effectively the risk premium Italy pays investors, continued to rise, last at nearly 220 bps, the highest since mid-March.

In FX, the dollar surged after several days of losses, as investors sought safety in the world’s reserve currency amid a wave of risk-off sentiment sweeping across global markets, with commodity currencies tumbling and oil prices sliding below $20 per barrel. The pound fell almost 1%, snapping a two-day advance. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumps as much as 0.8%, after three days of losses, as European stocks tumbled alongside U.S. equity futures as what is expected to be a turbulent earnings season gets underway. The BBDXY was last up 0.7%, with the dollar outperforming all Group-of-10 currencies; 10-year Treasury yield fell eight basis points to 0.67%.

The Australian dollar tumbled during Asian hours, and the Norwegian krone followed suit as oil prices slid with the International Energy Agency warning that a glut may overwhelm storage despite the recent OPEC deal. It says global oil demand will plunge by a record 9% this year due to coronavirus lockdowns

The pound and euro both fell versus the dollar, with sterling unwinding around half of this week’s rally as the U.K. Office for Budget Responsibility warned that Britain’s economic output could shrink 13% this year.  “The combination of weak economic data and cautious corporate earnings outlook could put the latest risk rally to the test and may even help the safe- haven USD,” said Valentin Marinov, a strategist at Credit Agricole. “The rally in commodity currencies is starting to look overextended and could be put to the test in the near term.” Cable fell as much as 1% to $1.2499, though still up around 0.6% this week. EUR/USD declined 0.5% to $1.0931 with the Stoxx Europe 600 index dropping for the first time in five trading days.

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as investors locked in profits after strong recent gains which sent the yellow metal just shy of its 2011 all time high. It was last at $1,721 an ounce.

Expected data include retail sales and industrial production. Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.9% to 2,788.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 329.77
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 143.35
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 460.62
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 19,550.09
  • Topix up 0.04% to 1,434.07
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 24,145.34
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,811.17
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 30,796.51
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 5,466.67
  • Kospi up 1.7% to 1,857.08
  • Brent futures down 4.2% to $28.35/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,713.56
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.4% to 99.32
  • German 10Y yield fell 3.9 bps to -0.416%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.0935
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 19.2 bps to 1.611%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 0.839%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • IEA says oil glut may overwhelm storage despite OPEC+ cut and revised global demand for 2020 to 90.5m b/d, from previous 99.9m
  • Germany is set to agree on an extension of nationwide lockdown measures until at least May 3 as the government debates with regional leaders on how to gradually relax restrictions on public life in the coming weeks.
  • Spain reported the biggest increase in the number of coronavirus cases in six days on Wednesday, while the daily death toll declined. There were more than 5,000 new infections in the 24 hours through Wednesday, taking the total to 177,633, according to Health Ministry data. The number of fatalities rose by 523 to 18,579, compared to Tuesday’s increase of 637
  • The IMF wants policy makers to avoid repeating the Depression-era mistake of ratcheting back budget deficits. Instead, it’s urging them to ramp up fiscal stimulus when the coronavirus contagion starts to abate

Asian equity markets traded cautiously as the region failed to follow through on the optimism seen on Wall St where all major indices posted firm gains as liquidity conditions normalized from the Easter break and after comments from President Trump stoked optimism for the US to re-open its economy soon. Nonetheless, the momentum petered out in Asia trade with ASX 200 (-0.4%) dragged lower by heavy losses in the energy sector after WTI crude prices dipped another 7% and briefly tested the USD 20.00/bbl level on demand concerns and with financials subdued after poor earnings results from their stateside peers. Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) exporters were hampered by the ill-effects of a firmer currency and amid the global production shutdown extensions, while KOSPI remained closed for National Assembly elections which is seen as a referendum for President Moon and the government’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) traded rangebound and conformed to the indecisive regional tone despite PBoC’s efforts in which it conducted a CNY 100bln 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility at a reduced rate of 2.95% (Prev. 3.15%), while the first phase of its previously announced 100bps targeted RRR cut took effect today but this was also unsuccessful in spurring momentum. Finally, 10yr JGBs were pressured from the open and proceeded lower before finding support near the 152.00 level, while the BoJ Rinban announcement provided little inspiration with the central bank only in the market for JPY 400bln in up to 3yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • China Adds Cash to Banking System, Cuts Interest Rate on Loans
  • India Farm Output Lone Bright Spot in an Economy Set to Shrink
  • Albayrak Says Turkey Hasn’t Sought Help From Any Institution

European equities extend on losses seen at the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 -2.1%), after a similarly (albeit to a lesser extent) handover from Asia, as the positive sentiment all Wall Street U-turned overnight. US equity futures also succumb to the broad risk aversion, with E-Mini S&P and Dow June futures back below the 2800 and 23500 marks respectively heading into more earnings. Back to Europe, bourses see broad-based losses with FTSE 100 (-2.4%) seeing more pronounced downside among the majors as the index is pressured by its large-cap Energy, Financial and Material names – three sectors which see steep losses in Europe, with the former the laggard amid price action in the energy complex. Similarly, financials suffer amid the lower yield environment and materials fall due to declines across the base metals. The sectors also clearly reflect risk aversion, as defensive fare considerably better than the cyclicals. In terms of the sector breakdown, Oil & Gas reside at the bottom, followed by the Travel & Leisure as lockdowns across some countries are set to be extended. In terms of individual movers. ASML (-1.8%) conformed to the decline in the region after opening higher post-earnings, in which its revenue and net printed relatively in-line with estimates, whilst suspending its Q2 buybacks but keeping its three-year programme intact. The CEO also noted that demand outlook is currently unchanged, and the group has not encountered any pushouts or cancellations this year, the group’s order intake remains strong. Sticking with earnings, TomTom (-7.3%) sees hefty losses amid dismal earnings after missing on all its company compiled estimates, withdrawing guidance and suspending share buybacks indefinitely. Finally, Adidas (-1.9%) received approval for a syndicated EUR 3bln loan from KFW contingent on a suspension of dividends.

Top European News

  • Germany Likely to Extend National Lockdown Measures Until May 3
  • Germany Mulls Easing Curbs as Europe’s Virus Struggle Progresses
  • Energy Shares Drag European Stocks Lower After Five- Day Rally
  • Swedish Debt Plan Triggers Backlash as Fiscal Hawks Under Attack

In FX, tthe Dollar was already clawing back losses across the board, but in particular relative to high beta and commodity based counterparts as Gold lost its lustre above Usd 1750/oz, but a more pronounced pull-back in crude prices following a bearish IEA monthly report gave the Greenback an extra fillip with the DXY back within striking distance of 99.500 compared to 98.828 lows. However, the index may encounter some technical resistance around recent recovery highs and run in to fundamental hurdles given bleak forecasts for upcoming US retail sales and ip data, not to mention the downside bias vs consensus.

  • AUD/NZD/CAD/NOK/RUB/MXN – Aside from renewed risk aversion fuelled by the aforementioned about-turn in oil and metals, the Aussie has been undermined independently by a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment per Westpac’s April survey, while the Kiwi is down in sympathy even though the Aud/Nzd cross has reversed from circa 1.0570 towards 1.0500. Aud/Usd got tantalisingly close to a hefty 1 bn 0.6450 option expiry at one stage, but now appears more inclined to hit 0.6300 and Nzd/Usd is even nearer 0.6000 from 0.6100+ overnight. Elsewhere, the Loonie is back below 1.4000 vs 1.3876 and still nervous ahead of the BoC, Eur/Nok is hovering just shy of 11.5000, Usd/Rub is pivoting 74.0000 and Usd/Mxn is paring back following a marginal breach of 23.9800.
  • GBP/EUR/CHF/JPY – Also victims of the Buck’s broad revival, but to varying degrees as Cable reverses from 1.2630 to test 1.2500 and the Euro wanes 10 pips or so before 1.1000 to 1.0920, though not far enough to disturb decent expiry interest between 1.0890-1.0900 (1.3 bn). However, Eur/Usd may lose more momentum on a closing basis if the pair cannot reclaim 1.0950 and a Fib level just above, while the Pound will be eyeing the resumption of Brexit trade negotiations with the EU. Turning to the Franc, gains vs the Dollar have been eroded within a 0.9597-0.9648 range, but not against the single currency as prior support around 1.0550 seems to be morphing into a Eur/Chf cap. Similarly, the Yen has retained a solid safe-haven premium in cross terms, but Usd/Jpy failed to extend through 107.00 and subsequently rebounded to 107.50 or so amidst reports of fresh long positions being instigated on trading platforms.
  • SEK/EM – Firmer than expected Swedish CPI metrics have helped the Swedish Krona evade much of the general risk-off positioning, but no such luck for Lira or Rand with the latter succumbing to further heavy post-SARB rate cut depreciation in wake of the SA Government supposedly reneging on wage deals according to the PSU.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures gave up gains early-doors having had somewhat of a rangebound APAC session. Desks argue that participants are realizing that the OPEC+ cuts are not going to balance the markets over Q2, whilst cuts outside the group are more likely to be market-driven, thus the curtailments are to be gradual as opposed to immediate. Elsewhere, the oil and gas regulator in Texas – the Texas Railroad Commission – voiced disagreement on whether mandated cuts should be implemented. Bigger producers largely opted for market-driven declines whilst the smaller players supported cuts. Whilst the situation in Texas will be followed, Oklahoma are to conduct a meeting on 11th May to discuss mandated output curbs. Prices saw renewed pressure upon the release of the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report which stated that global oil demand is set to fall by a record 9.3mln BPD in 2020. Both the EIA and IEA unsurprisingly cut world oil demand outlook, although the latter by a considerably larger amount than the former, which forecasts a fall of 5.6mln BPD this year. The Agency also stated that it can reach SPR purchases of 200mln BPD over the next three months – a longer timeframe than the touted 2 months by the Saudi Energy Minister. The report also echoed some recent comments from IEA Chief Birol, stating that no feasible agreement could cut supply by enough to offset the near-term decline in demand. The OPEC Monthly report is set to be released on April 16th; participants will be on the lookout for synchrony among the three reports. Meanwhile, the weekly Private Inventories added further fuel to the bearish bias after printing a larger-than-expected build of 13.1mln vs. Exp. +11.7mln. WTI and Brent prices saw a fresh bout of weakness which coincided with the IEA report, with the former hitting levels last seen in 2002. WTI resides below USD 20/bbl and printed a current base at around USD 19.15/bbl. Brent front-month dipped below USD 28/bbl amid the concoction of bearish factors. Over in the metals complex, spot gold succumbs to a firmer Dollar alongside potential retracement of its recent rally, with prices closer to USD 1700/oz, having risen to a whisker away from USD 1750/oz (USD 1747/oz at best) in the prior session. Separately, Copper prices are under pressure from USD action alongside the risk aversion seen across the market. The red metal still resides above USD 2.25/lb having waned off overnight highs of USD 2.34/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -8.0%, prior -0.5%
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. -5.0%, prior -0.4%;
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. -5.2%, prior -0.2%
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. -35, prior -21.5
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. -4.0%, prior 0.6%; Capacity Utilization, est. 74.0%, prior 77.0%
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. -0.4%, prior -0.1%
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 55, prior 72
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $20.9b; Total Net TIC Flows, prior $122.9b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Global equity markets advanced further yesterday as the market decided that flattening new case and fatality growth rates pretty much everywhere across the developed world is more important at the moment than working out how successful the exit strategies will be and how protracted the economic impact will be. Equities also liked comments from White House economic adviser Kudlow suggesting Mr Trump will make some “important announcements” over the next few days regarding state guidelines on reopening the economies even if Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci, said that a May 1 target to reopen is “a bit overly optimistic” for many areas of the country.

Overall it feels like we’re pricing in closer to a “V-shaped” recovery at the moment but it’s clearly difficult to disentangle the impact that the extraordinary support from the authorities is having. The Fed’s kitchen sink is still reverberating around markets. All is not well everywhere though as Italy and Oil had a bad day yesterday as we’ll touch on below.

The very latest on the coronavirus shows the growth rate of both new cases and fatalities over the past 24 hours were the lowest since the first week of March, before the outbreaks had really spread around Europe or the US. Global cases rose by 3.1% or by just over 60,000 cases to just shy of 2 million. Meanwhile fatalities rose by 5.8% or nearly 6,890 people globally, meaning the number of people confirmed to have passed away from Covid-19 now sits at 126,557. For more see our Corona Crisis Daily.

The S&P 500 ended the session up a further +3.06% to put it +27.20% above its closing low back on March 23rd. Meanwhile the VIX index of volatility continued to decline, falling for the 7th time in the last 8 sessions as it reached its lowest level in over 5 weeks (at 37.89). Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.61%) also nearly made it into bull market territory as well, before giving up some of its gains at the end of the session to put it up +19.40% since its own closing low on March 18th.

The moves higher for equities came as earnings season saw a number of companies report even if there was some mixed results. JPMorgan Chase reported that net income was $2.9bn, down 69% on the same quarter a year ago, with an $8.3bn provision for credit losses, up from just $1.5bn a year ago. Total trading revenues were +32% on Q1 2019, which beat investor day guidance of up mid-teens. The stock was -3.17% as bank stocks broadly were sold (S&P 500 Bank Industry group down -2.22%) in favour of Technology and Consumer stocks (both over +4%) for the second day in a row. Over at Wells Fargo (-4.40%), net income was $653m, down from $5.9bn in Q1 2019, while their own provision expense for credit losses was $4.0bn. Meanwhile Johnson & Johnson (+4.02%) lowered their 2020 guidance, now seeing full-year operational sales of $79.2-$82.2bn, down from $85.8-86.6bn back in January, but increased their dividend. The increased dividend and comments around a possible coronavirus vaccine saw sentiment in the stock improve even as guidance was cut. They are aiming to have a single-dose vaccine available for broad use early in 2021, and also is testing two backup vaccine candidates. They aim to produce 600 to 800 million doses in the first half of next year alone according to comments released after their earnings announcement. Today the main earnings highlights will be from UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, ASML, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.

Markets in Asia have been a bit less enthusiastic with most major bourses close to flat this morning. That includes the Nikkei (+0.07%), Hang Seng (-0.11%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.15%) while the ASX is down a steeper (-1.08%). In currencies, the Australian dollar is down -0.50% following data that showed Australia’s household sentiment fell to 75.6 in April (from 91.9 in last month), the biggest fall in the 47-year history of the survey. In commodities, Brent crude oil prices are up +1.28% this morning while most base metals are also trading up with iron ore +0.83%.

Overnight, China added another drip of stimulus to its economy with the PBoC injecting CNY 100bn via the one-year medium-term lending facility in to the economy at a rate of 2.95% vs 3.15% previously. The operation comes ahead of CNY 200bn of loans maturing on Friday.

In other news, the Washington Post is reporting that Federal health officials have begun drafting plans to end social-distancing measures and reopen businesses called the “Framework for Reopening America”. The document describes a phased program that would split the country into areas based on risk, with low-, moderate- and high-risk sections. Low-risk areas could open first, no earlier than May 1, with moderate- and high-risk areas later. The report added that the document says that none of the steps should be taken until widespread testing capabilities are in place. Futures on the S&P 500 are trading down -0.51% this morning.

Prior to this, President Trump announced during his press briefing yesterday that he would be instructing his administration to stop all funding for the World Health Organization on the basis that the body should not have taken China’s data at “face value” and that they failed to share information on the coronavirus early enough. According to WHO, the US has given $893 million to the organization in the current 2-year funding cycle.

Sticking with the US, after the market closed yesterday major US airlines and the Treasury reached an initial agreement on the aid that the government votes on in the recently passed fiscal stimulus bill. There is a total of $25billion in payroll assistance being allocated across all major airlines. Airlines that agreed to participate also included Alaska Air Group, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, United Airlines Holdings, Allegiant Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and SkyWest. Further, American Airlines Group and Delta Airlines said overnight that they will get $5.8bn and $5.4bn in support respectively. That accounts to almost 45% of the agreed assistance. Delta Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said in a message to employees that “The funding, along with self-help measures we have taken, will prevent furloughs and pay rate reductions through the end of September, despite the 95% drop we’ve seen in passenger traffic.” Shares of American Airlines (+10.7%), Delta (+9.29%) and JetBlue (+16%) are all up in afterhours trade along with those of other carriers.

Back to yesterday and over in fixed income, there was another notable widening in European sovereign bond spreads yesterday as the Eurogroup meeting from last Thursday has yet to convince markets that it is workable for all. As we highlighted yesterday Italy have said they won’t use the ESM and are putting a lot of faith in the recovery fund element of Thursday’s deal. This will be fleshed out at the April 23rd Eurogroup meeting. See our Italian economist Clemente’s piece (link here) yesterday on this and the domestic political tensions that have built up before and after last week’s meeting and agreement. Basically the Five Star are adamant that the ESM is not an option. Their coalition PD partners are a bit more pragmatic and are also putting a lot of hopes on the recovery fund. Meanwhile Salvini’s main opposition League party are capitalising on the situation and are stepping up the rhetoric against the Government and Europe. The Brothers of Italy party are also doing the same. So this story still has a lot of unfinished business to it.

The spread of Italian 10yr yields over bunds rose by +22.4bps to 216bps yesterday, its highest level since March 18th. It was a similar theme for other southern European countries, with the spread on Greek (+16.7bps), Spanish (+9.0bps) and Portuguese (+7.2bps) bonds all rising. Bunds themselves though made small gains, with 10yr yields falling by -3.0bps, while those on US Treasuries also fell by -2.0bps. The other big story from last Thursday namely credit continued to grab headlines. After the Fed’s foray into HY, markets continued to tighten with US HY and IG -35bps and -11bps tighter with Euro HY and IG -67bps and -10bps tighter. Oil fell on demand worries based on a report from the IMF on the global economic outlook that we get into below, as well as signals of continued oversupply with an American Petroleum Institute report showing that U.S. crude stockpiles surged 13.14 million barrels last week. Brent crude closed down -6.74% and WTI fell -10.26%. Our analyst Michael Hsueh put out another bearish piece yesterday. See here for more details.

These moves in financial markets came against the backdrop of yet another set of dire forecasts on the global economy yesterday, this time from the IMF’s semi-annual World Economic Outlook. In the report, which was entitled “The Great Lockdown”, they forecast that world GDP would contract by -3.0% this year, which would far exceed the -0.1% global contraction in 2009. Furthermore, unlike 2009 they forecast that both the advanced economies (-6.1%) as well as the emerging markets and developing economies (-1.0%) would see declines in GDP. Looking at the most severe declines, they see the Euro Area economy contracting by -7.5% this year, which includes large declines for Spain (-8.0%), Italy (-9.1%) and Greece (-10%). Meanwhile the volume of global trade would fall by -11.0%.

Against this backdrop, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors met virtually yesterday, with their statement saying that they “reiterated their pledge to do whatever is necessary to restore economic growth and protect jobs, businesses, and the resilience of the financial system.” However, ahead of this call, French finance minister Le Maire told reporters that the US was preventing attempts to boost the IMF’s capacity through the creation of more special drawing rights. That said, the statement released by the US Treasury department afterwards did call “for more and urgent contributions to the IMF’s Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust and the poverty Reduction and Growth Trust to address critical funding needs.” There’ll be a call between G20 finance ministers and central bankers today.

Looking at other unprecedented forecasts, the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility, which is the government’s independent fiscal watchdog, published a scenario that sees the economy contracting by an unprecedented -35% in Q2, with the deficit rising to 14% of GDP in 2020-21, which would be the highest level since WWII. This is a scenario rather than a forecast, and assumes that the lockdown lasts for 3 months, followed by a partial lifting over the following three months. The news was no better in France either, where finance minister Le Maire said that the economy would shrink by -8% this year, and the budget minister said that the budget deficit would rise to 9% of GDP.

To the day ahead now, and there’s a raft of data releases from the US, including February’s business inventories, March’s retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation, April’s Empire State manufacturing survey and NAHB housing market index, along with the weekly MBA mortgage applications. Over in Europe, there’ll also be the final March CPI reading from France and Italy. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on rates, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak. And finally, earnings releases include UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, ASML, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.11 POINTS OR 0.57%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 290.06 POINTS OR 1.19%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 88.72 POINTS OR 0.45%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .35%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0620 /Oil DOWN TO 19.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and 28.46 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0620 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0681 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/NIGERIA

Seems that the Chinese are the racists…China is banning African residents from entering Guangzhou

(zerohedge)

“Black People Not Allowed” – China Denies Reports It Banned African Residents From Guangzhou

Africans living in the Southern Chinese city of Guangzhou say they have been victims of racism, forced into quarantine, banned from shops, and evicted from rentals, following five Nigerians testing positive for COVID-19, in a district of the city known as “Little Africa.”

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports infections are centered around Kuangquan Street in Yuexiu district, “has raised the alarm in a city that has so far reported only 463 cases of COVID-19.”

Guangzhou is a major trading partner with countries in Africa and has a sizeable African population.

Local authorities have forced Africans into a 14-day quarantine and submit to random virus testing. There are even reports that some of these folks have been banned from shops and, in extreme cases, evicted from their rental properties.

The move by authorities has triggered a backlash by a Nigerian community group in Guangzhou, led by Maximus Ogbonna, who said,

“People are not happy because they’re being forced out of their apartments and into hotels where they have to pay [$30] a night for 28 days.” 

Ogbonna is in a 14-day quarantine at his home. Police installed a camera above his front door to detect if he breaches the health order.

African diplomats sent a letter to China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying, “The Group of African Ambassadors in Beijing immediately demands the cessation of forceful testing, quarantine and other inhuman treatments meted out to Africans.”

Beijing rejected allegations of racism in Guangzhou, saying the accusations are nothing more than a Western ploy to undermine its image in this challenging time.

Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Monday that the Chinese government “treats all foreign personnel in China equally, opposes any differential practices targeting specific groups of people, and has zero tolerance for discriminatory words and deeds.”

He said he stands with its “brothers” in Africa…

However, BBC Africa business editor Larry Madowo was upset with China’s response. He tweeted: “Chinese government’s statement on racist treatment of Africans in the country because of coronavirus is objectively terrible. It’s a word salad that says nothing, offers no apologies and provides air cover for racist officials.” 

Larry Madowo

@LarryMadowo

The Chinese government’s statement on racist treatment of Africans in the country because of coronavirus is objectively terrible. It’s a word salad that says nothing, offers no apologies and provides air cover for racist officials

View image on Twitter

On Saturday, the US consulate in Guangzhou advised African Americans to halt all travels to the city. It issued a security alert that read “police ordered bars and restaurants not to serve clients who appear to be of African origin,” and police are conducting mandatory testing and self-quarantine for “anyone with ‘African contacts.’

AP News said local law enforcement in the city recently responded to rumors that “300,000 black people in Guangzhou were setting off a second epidemic,” which caused alarm. Officials later said the rumor was fake news… Or was it? Because as we’ve explained, the second wave of infections could be imminent, and China is likely to blame foreigners this time around instead of bat soup.

Twitter account Black Livity China posted a video on Saturday that showed a sign at a Guangzhou McDonald’s that read: “We have been informed that from now on black people are not allowed to enter the restaurant”; McDonald’s told Forbes once it heard of the sign, it “immediately removed the communication and temporarily closed the restaurant” as it was “not representative of our inclusive values.”

Black Livity China@BlackLivityCN

Again, for those who still doubt that Black people and particularly are being targeted we feel it is our duty to share this. A sign at a @McDonalds restaurant seems to make this perfectly clear

Embedded video

China’s new virus cases hit a six-week high over the weekend, sparked mainly from travelers arriving from overseas, well that’s at least what Beijing is telling the world. It seems the Communist government is gearing up for the second infection wave and will likely blame foreigners, maybe specifically Africans in Guangzhou. 

END

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS

Experts are now warning that there will be a second coronavirus wave in November once the winter is upon them

(zerohedge)

China Will Be Hit With Second Coronavirus Wave In November, Top Shanghai Clinical Expert Warns

Over the past two weeks we have reported on several occasions that hidden behind Beijing’s endless barrage of lies that “all is well”, China – which rushed to reopen the country in March long before the epidemic was eradicated from the mainland – is starting to suffer a second wave of coronavirus despite the government solemn vows that all new cases are imported.

Needless to say, the last thing the global economy – which is mostly shut down everywhere but in China – can take is another Chinese lockdown.

And yet, that’s precisely what may be coming. According to CaixinChina could see another surge in coronavirus infections starting in November, one of the country’s highest-profile medical experts has said, as low numbers of new cases prompt governments nationwide to get people back to work.

While countries may be able to bring the deadly pandemic under adequate control by autumn, the coming winter may bring a “second wave” of infections in China and elsewhere, said Zhang Wenhong, who heads Shanghai’s Covid-19 clinical expert team and directs the infectious disease department at one of the city’s top hospitals.

Zhang’s comments come as Chinese officials gradually ease quarantine restrictions as part of efforts to revive the country’s economy. The East Asian nation, where the previously unknown virus was first detected last year, has seen numbers of daily new cases fall in recent weeks after recording thousands of Covid-19-related deaths and rolling out unprecedented lockdowns.

 

Zhang Wenhong, head of Shanghai’s Covid-19 clinical expert team

Speaking Saturday during an online livestream broadcast by popular short-video platform Kuaishou, Zhang said China’s experience with disease control means any resurgence in infections later this year will be manageable, and not require a repeat of the dramatic measures taken to curb the virus’s initial spread.

“China won’t implement any shutdowns, and imported cases will certainly still make up the bulk of the outbreak,” Zhang said. In recent weeks, Beijing has been reporting that infected people traveling into China have made up the vast majority of the country’s new confirmed cases. Of course, Beijing has not been reporting that there were several thousand more urns mysteriously appearing in Wuhan than “official” deaths, so frankly when it comes to Chinese data, it’s all a lie.

Like other public health experts, Zhang expects that in the long term, countries will have to take a flexible approach to recurring outbreaks. “For a long time, epidemic prevention and control will go through periods of relaxation and tightening. It will be possible to live and work normally, but it probably won’t be possible to completely eradicate the outbreaks,” he said.

That means countries must continue to fight the pandemic together even after their initial domestic outbreaks have peaked, Zhang said, adding: “Only when all nations have properly controlled the disease will we all be able to live well again.”

It wasn’t clear just how China would fight its next pandemic without shutting down the entire nation, when that’s precisely what China did in February, and the result has been a historic surge in defaults and delinquencies which Beijing has yet to address even as China’s economy fails to reboot.

Aggressive testing and contact tracing, combined with immediate hospitalization of confirmed cases, is the secret to effective epidemic control, Zhang said, perhaps unaware that China did none of those and instead simply dragged the sick away to some unknown place while putting down whole towns and provinces under complete lockdown.

But what may be most troubling of all, is that if China indeed suffers its next wave in November, that is right around the time when Morgan Stanley predicted the US will be hit by a second coronavirus wave as well.

Incidentally, as we reported earlier today, according to BofA’s latest Fund Managers Survey, a second, more powerful and economically crippling wave of infections similar to the one observed during the Spanish Flu…

… is now the biggest “tail risk” facing investors.

In that case, investors are about to be hit with a perfect storm some time in November/December when not just China but also the US are shut down for a second time. We only bring this up for those who – after watching the recent market surge with a dumbfounded expression on their face – are considering what month to pin their calendar put spread on. Well, now you know.

END
CHINA/GILEAD
China is getting more and more warlike..they have now cancelled another Remdesivir study
I believe that the Japanese HIV drug Favipiravir is superior anyway.

Gilead Shares Slide As China Cancels Another Remdesivir Study

Over the weekend, a headline out of mainland China caught our eye, even as it was seemingly ignored by the broader mainstream press: a day earlier, Gilead had announced that health authorities in Beijing had shuttered a trial of Gilead’s remdesivir, one of the earliest ‘miracle drugs’ identified as a possible treatment for severe COVID-19 symptoms.

The reason given was a lack of patients in severe condition at the hospital in Wuhan where the study was being run. While that seemed to fit with China’s ‘narrative’ that the outbreak has been successfully repressed, it didn’t seem to comport with the facts on the ground. The notion that China is out of patients in critical condition is ridiculous, especially considering that Chinese nationals who caught the virus abroad continue to return to the mainland, risking a second wave, according to Beijing.

Now, Chinese health officials just announced on Wednesday that they would be shutting down another arm of the remdesivir study that was taking place on the mainland. The excuse was the same as it was last time: not enough eligible patients.

According to BBG, Capital Medical University in Beijing said recruitment for the trial had been suspended because “the epidemic of COVID-19 has been controlled well at present, no eligible patients can be recruited.”

The CEO of Gilead Daniel O’Day sad in a Friday letter that the remdesivir study in Wuhan, which was focusing on seriously ill patients, had shown promising results, while other trials ongoing in North America were also making good progress.

Gilead shares slumped on the news as the rest of the market realized what we saw over the weekend: The ‘not enough eligible patients’ excuse is just a ruse. Beijing is now deliberately tampering with the work of an American biotech firm.

Gilead shares slid ~4% in premarket trade.

Notably, remdesivir was one of four drugs or drug combos being tested in a global trial coordinated by the WHO. Another study published yesterday seemed to add to the body of evidence showing that remdesivir is effective at fighting COVID-19. And the US military is already using the drug to treat the hundreds of American soldiers who have been infected.

It’s almost as if Beijing wants to instigate a second wave of the virus…and the fact that this decision comes less than 24 hours after President Trump pulled funding from the WHO for repeatedly kowtowing to Beijing.

end

Shocking New Documents Prove China Deliberately Withheld Critical Coronavirus Info

The last few days have exhibited some of the most intense sniping between President Trump and the American media, as the media – via reports in WaPo and NYT – goes all-in on the “Trump screwed up” narrative, while President Trump hews to the “it was a perfect response” counternarrative.

In reality, the truth is somewhere in the middle. But increasingly, more and more evidence being reported in the western press – by mainstream outlets like the AP, as well as the newspapers mentioned above – appears to suggest that suspicions about China’s deceptions have proven true. The notion that Chinese officials ‘reacted slowly’ or ‘dragged their feet’ isn’t accurate. It looks more like Beijing knew what they were dealing with right away, but decided to withhold that information from the Chinese people and the international community because – because, why, exactly?

It’s not exactly clear. By failing to act right away, Beijing passed on a chance to cut the global case total by as much as two-thirds, according to some models cited in an AP report. As for why Beijing might have purposefully allowed a pandemic to blossom, well…that should be abundantly clear by now.

In a bombshell report that exposes not just Beijing’s lies, but the WHO’s complicity in those lies, the AP obtained documents allegedly proving that President Xi and the leadership were aware of human-to-human transmission and the potential for a pandemic six days earlier than previously believed.

And instead of acting, they chose to sit on their hands, allowing the virus to continue spreading freely in Wuhan until Jan. 20, when President Xi delivered his first warning to the public.

“This is tremendous,” said Zuo-Feng Zhang, an epidemiologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “If they took action six days earlier, there would have been much fewer patients and medical facilities would have been sufficient. We might have avoided the collapse of Wuhan’s medical system.

That’s not all. Some experts believe that the CPC leadership did act during the six day lag, taking subtler steps to erect more mitigation efforts, while waiting to inform the public to avoid “mass hysteria.”

Given the fact that Beijing managed to leverage the Red Army and close down half of the largest country on Earth, something tells us the public reaction to news of the virus – and the government’s heavy handed efforts to contain it – wasn’t high up on the Party’s list of concerns.

What’s more, the report suggests that the government essentially bullied doctors into silence, something that Beijing has vehemently denied, despite the death of Dr. Li Wenliang, a doctor who was punished for warning about the virus, then died fighting it, becoming a symbol of Beijing’s mishandling of the outbreak.

“Doctors in Wuhan were afraid,” said Dali Yang, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Chicago. “It was truly intimidation of an entire profession.”

And they might have waited longer, even, if the first international confirmed case, found in Thailand on Jan. 13, didn’t force the Chinese government to act.

Still, the fact that China lied – and continues to lie – can no longer be disputed, even as Beijing assured the AP that they reported the outbreak to the WHO as soon as they were aware.

The meat of the documents, which were provided to the AP by an anonymous source, involves proof of a call involving President Xi, Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Sun Chunlan – three of the most senior party leaders – and the leader of the NHC. During the call, the director shared evidence of H2H transmission (this is nearly a week before it was publicly confirmed) while discussing other topics that weren’t recorded in the document.

In the end, who knows what was said. What we do know is that the Chinese government took more steps to prepare for the outbreak, while continuing to play the risks down in public.

The documents show that the head of China’s National Health Commission, Ma Xiaowei, laid out a grim assessment of the situation on Jan. 14 in a confidential teleconference with provincial health officials. A memo states that the teleconference was held to convey instructions on the coronavirus from President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, but does not specify what those instructions were.

“The epidemic situation is still severe and complex, the most severe challenge since SARS in 2003, and is likely to develop into a major public health event,” the memo cites Ma as saying.

The National Health Commission is the top medical agency in the country. In a faxed statement, the Commission said it had organized the teleconference because of the case reported in Thailand and the possibility of the virus spreading during New Year travel. It added that China had published information on the outbreak in an “open, transparent, responsible and timely manner,” in accordance with “important instructions” repeatedly issued by President Xi.

The documents come from an anonymous source in the medical field who did not want to be named for fear of retribution. The AP confirmed the contents with two other sources in public health familiar with the teleconference. Some of the memo’s contents also appeared in a public notice about the teleconference, stripped of key details and published in February.

Under a section titled “sober understanding of the situation,” the memo said that “clustered cases suggest that human-to-human transmission is possible.” It singled out the case in Thailand, saying that the situation had “changed significantly” because of the possible spread of the virus abroad.

“With the coming of the Spring Festival, many people will be traveling, and the risk of transmission and spread is high,” the memo continued. “All localities must prepare for and respond to a pandemic.”

In the memo, Ma demanded officials unite around Xi and made clear that political considerations and social stability were key priorities during the long lead-up to China’s two biggest political meetings of the year in March. While the documents do not spell out why Chinese leaders waited six days to make their concerns public, the meetings may be one reason.

“The imperatives for social stability, for not rocking the boat before these important Party congresses is pretty strong,” says Daniel Mattingly, a scholar of Chinese politics at Yale. “My guess is, they wanted to let it play out a little more and see what happened.”

According to the AP, the documents and testimonials from Chinese insiders help support President Trump’s assertion that China is truly to blame for the outbreak, and that officials in Beijing should be held responsible, and perhaps even owe compensation. Looking further down the line, we can envision a scenario where differing ‘interpretations’ of these critical first weeks of the outbreak could lead to an all-out military war between the world’s two largest economies as both Washington and Beijing demand compensation from the other.

The delay may support accusations by President Donald Trump that the Chinese government’s secrecy held back the world’s response to the virus. However, even the public announcement on Jan. 20 left the U.S. nearly two months to prepare for the pandemic.

Of course, everything we said above is pure conjecture: nobody really has any idea what life will be like after this, whether things will be extremely different from the ‘before time’, or whether we’ll easily slip back into our old routines, and look back two years from now with the benefit of hindsight and ensure we’re better prepared for future outbreaks. Or future ‘accidental leaks’ from a biosafety level 4 laboratory.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GREECE

65% of Greek hotels are now facing bankruptcy as lockdowns in Greece continue and are playing havoc to this important industry.

(zerohedge)

65% Of Greek Hotels Face Bankruptcy As Lockdowns Continue

The Greek tourism industry has collapsed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and on track to lose at least 50% of its revenues in 2020, said Grigoris Tasios, President of the Greek Hoteliers Association, who spoke with the Greek Reporter last week.

The Hellenic Chamber of Hotels, a group that oversees the tourism industry in Greece, warned in a new study on Monday that a bankruptcy wave looms.

Alexandros Vasilikos, the president of the Chamber, told the Greek Reporter this week that a recovery in the tourism industry, reverting to 2019 growth rates, could take a very long time to achieve.

According to the Chamber’s study, 65% of Greek hotels indicate that the threat of bankruptcy is “likely” or “most likely” — at 46.6% and 18.3%, respectively.

 

Hotel in Greece 

About 95% of hotels said their business volumes had been halved since the crisis unfolded. The Chamber is estimating that the hotel sector would lose upwards of 4.46 billion Euros in 2020.

Tasios told Greek Reporter last week that the tourism industry is facing an unprecedented crisis:

“It is very difficult to plan ahead during these times, simply because we do not know how long the coronavirus scare will last. We hope to launch the Greek tourist season on July 1, but this is speculative, since everything will depend on how the virus situation will unfold,” he said.

Tasios said about 300 hotels are currently operating in the entire country under strict social distancing rules. Thousands remain closed, as nationwide lockdowns from mid-March extend into April.

“We really do not know how many will be in a position to reopen when the situation becomes normal again,” he said, noting that hoteliers up and down the country basically have zero income right now.

“We are monitoring developments in the pandemic on a day-to-day basis, not just in Greece but throughout the world, and in particular, in the countries that are tourist markets for Greece,” Tasios said. He then added that the number of arrivals from Greece’s traditional markets will probably be far lower than that of previous years.

“I think that the situation in Germany, UK, France, Poland and maybe Russia, countries that are among the top five tourism markets for Greece, does not allow much optimism about a quick rebound in visitors,” he explained.

The Greek Ministry of Tourism announced last month that it would reopen the industry around April 30.

For the remainder of the year, tourism across the Western world will struggle to attract guests, specifically in Europe and the US.

We noted last month that the Spanish tourism industry plummeted after the country went into lockdown following a massive surge in cases and deaths. The tourism industry across Europe has likely gone bust as well.

Flight bans across the world have made it almost impossible for people to travel to top tourist destinations.

Several weeks ago, we reported how the services sector in the US crashed, especially travel and tourism and other consumer-facing industries.

With no proven vaccine, people are likely to stay home in 2020 — no matter how much optimism governments create in their attempt to reopen crashed economies. It could be years until the global travel and tourism industry recovers.

END

UK

This hurts:  50 million pints of beer is at risk of going down the drain unless the UK pubs reopen by summer

(zerohedge)

“Wasted” – 50 Million Pints Down The Drain Unless UK Pubs Reopen By Summer

Britain remained in a nationwide lockdown in mid-April as virus-related deaths and confirmed cases climb. A crashed economy and high unemployment risk sending the country into depression. Non-essential businesses, like pubs, have been shuttered for nearly a month.

BBC News is reporting, with no clear timeline of when lockdowns will dissipate, tens of thousands of pubs across the country have been severely damaged with limited cash flow in the last thirty days. They are holding large sums of beer inventory that could expire if lockdowns continue for the next several months, which would result in over 50 million pints of stale beer being dumped, according to a leading industry body.

The Campaign for Real Ale (Camra) estimates the nation’s 39,000 pubs each have around 15 barrels of inventory.

Camra’s chief executive Tom Stainer fears many pubs will have to dump stale beer if the lockdown extends into summer.

“It’s a very sad waste of all the work and talent that goes into producing great beer,” Stainer told the BBC. “People won’t get to drink it and all those resources have been used up for nothing.”

He added: “It’s not the biggest issue that the country is dealing with, but aspects of life like going to the cinema or cafe, or going for a pint, are something we treasure.”

Since pubs were forced to close their doors on March 20, supermarket have seen a 20% increase in alcohol sales. Consumers have shifted where they buy their beverages in the lockdowns as public health orders force everyone to drink at home. This trend will likely continue for the next several months, further pressuring pubs.

Iain Crockett, director of Gloucestershire-based Severn Brewing, said the lockdown has severely impacted pubs and down the supply chain to brewers.

Crockett said smaller brewers could see financial hardships while larger ones with storage capacity and capital can weather the economic storm.

Some pubs are already asking the government where they can dump stale beer. In the coming months, tens of millions of pints could be destroyed if lockdowns continue.

BBC notes that some brewers have started converting stale beer into hand sanitizer, by extracting the alcohol.

According to OpenTable data, restaurant traffic in the UK remains collapsed through mid-April, with little hope customers will return this month.

In the US, some state and county governments have allowed bars and restaurants to remain open, only allowing delivery or curbside pick-up of food and alcohol.

Nevertheless, the pandemic has been a significant headache for the service industry, resulting in millions of jobs lost in the Western world.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/GREECE/EUROPE/CORONAVIRUS

Now Turkey is planning to send a new fresh wave of migrants to Europe..many infected with coronavirus to Greece and  onto Europe

(Watson/Summit/News)

Turkey Plans To Send Fresh Wave Of COVID-Infected Migrants To Europe, Report

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Voice of America reports that Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan is planning to send a fresh wave of migrants to Europe, with officials fearing many of them will be infected with coronavirus.

“Greek forces are on heightened alert as reports have surfaced that Turkey is preparing to push through a fresh wave of migrants to Europe. Officials in Athens say, they fear that refugees infected with the coronavirus may be among the new wave of asylum seekers,” reports VOA.

Intelligence has been produced showing how Turkish authorities have moved migrants from inland areas to the shore, where smugglers are waiting to ferry them to Europe.

Greece’s coastguard, Air Force and Navy have stepped up patrols against what they see as another organized effort to unleash thousands of migrants as a political weapon.

Back in February, President Erdogan announced that Turkey would be re-opening its border and encouraging millions of migrants to invade Europe.

During the incursions, Christian churches were trashed and thousands of precious olive trees were chopped down as part of an economic attack.

Thanks to a strong response from Greek security forces and a massive revolt by the Greek people, there has been no repeat of 2015, when up to 2 million migrants eventually reached Europe.

Erdogan initially agreed to hold back the migrant tide in 2016 after the European Union paid Ankara €6 billion, but the Turkish leader is now using the threat of re-opening the floodgates to push for more money and concessions.

*  *  *

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6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS/GLOBE

A new study shows evidence that summer will not stop the coronavirus

(zerohedge)

New Study Exposes More Evidence That Summer Won’t Stop The Coronavirus

One of the public’s last great hopes as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases nears the 2 million mark is that the onset of summer in the northern hemisphere will help defeat the virus as warmer temperatures make life for the virus more hostile, hampering the virus’s ability to spread.

However, it’s looking increasingly likely that the novel coronavirus is stronger than its predecessor, SARS, when it comes to resisting intense heat. One recent study of additional steps that could be taken to protect lab technicians handling samples of the virus found that samples of the virus can survive when exposed to temperatures as high as 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit).

That would seem to preclude the onset of summer as a potential ‘miracle cure’, while also suggesting that the outbreaks in Africa and South America might be worse than they appear, since the theories that high temperatures slow the virus’s spread don’t appear nearly as convincing.

According to SCMP, the French scientists who conducted the experiment had to heat samples of the sample, strains of the virus mixed with various animal proteins (to mimic real-world conditions in the test tube), to nearly 90 degrees Celsius (210 degrees Fahrenheit) to completely kill the virus.

Professor Remi Charrel and colleagues at the Aix-Marseille University in southern France heated the virus that causes Covid-19 to 60 degrees Celsius (140 Fahrenheit) for an hour and found that some strains were still able to replicate.

The scientists had to bring the temperature to almost boiling point to kill the virus completely, according to their non-peer-reviewed paper released on bioRxiv.org on Saturday. The results have implications for the safety of lab technicians working with the virus.

The team in France infected African green monkey kidney cells, a standard host material for viral activity tests, with a strain isolated from a patient in Berlin, Germany. The cells were loaded into tubes representing two different types of environments, one “clean” and the other “dirty” with animal proteins to simulate biological contamination in real-life samples, such as an oral swab.

After the heating, the viral strains in the clean environment were thoroughly deactivated. Some strains in the dirty samples, however, survived.

The French researchers found that using the higher temperature could help solve the problem, heating the samples to 92 degrees Celsius (~210 degrees Fahrenheit) for 15 minutes could render the virus completely inactive. However, using these high temperatures as part of disinfection protocols for lab technicians could severely fragment the virus’ RNA, potentially scrambling the results of more sensitive tests.

It’s just the latest curve ball that the coronavirus has thrown at researchers since the outbreak began in Wuhan.

end
CASS FREIGHT INDEX/GLOBAL SHIPPING
The Cass Freight index was already showing weakness way before the pandemic
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Cass Freight Index Showed Economic Weakness Way Before The Pandemic

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Numerous freight charts point to a weakening economy months before the coronavirus hit.

I Hear the Train a Comin’

Covid19 will take all of the blame, but freight indicators show a recession was on the way even without that massive economic disruption.

Please consider the March 2020 Cass Freight Indexes.

The Cass Freight Index showed a weak U.S. freight market to end 2019 and to start 2020, and just as we were seeing signs of coming off the bottom, we get the coronavirus and all related smacks to an economy that was already struggling to gain traction.

This has quickly gone from a China production concern to a U.S. (and global) consumer spending problem. No business, no jobs, and no income for many leads to much less freight moving around.

US Rail Volume Comps – Cass March 2020

Truckload linehaul rates – Cass March 2020

This index turned lower in mid-2019.

Cass Truckload linehaul Index – March 2020

Intermodal Volumes Cass – March 2020

Cass Conclusion

All historical truckload and intermodal data was restated in November 2019, with an extremely high correlation to the previous data.

We hope the Cass Indexes bottom in April, and the quicker businesses can reopen, the better readings we should see in May and June.

Unrealistic Hope

There is no harm to hope, but expecting a quick, sustained recovery is another matter.

Ever since Cass outsourced production of this report to Stifel, the Cass report been one of rampant overoptimism.

The original writers (named Cass) were sounding recession signals whereas Stifel writer David G. Ross, spoke of signs of a freight bottom for the last few months.

We can never prove which view is correct, but seeing signs of a bottom in a recovery that was already the longest in history seems more than a bit questionable.

Realistically, we should now toss ideas of a bottom in April and face the fact the Covid-19 Recession Will Be Deeper Than the Great Financial Crisis.

Don’t expect a V-shaped recovery.

END

MICHAEL EVERY…

“Worst. Recession. Ever.”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

When Harry Met Comic-Book-Guy

Worst global downturn since the Great Depression” says the IMF. Actually, it’s potentially worse than that. We are seeing credible (initial) claims in the UK and US that millions/tens of millions are going to be unemployed – again taking us back to black & white memories of long queues of the jobless holding signs saying “Will Work For Food.”

We are also seeing calls for GDP to collapse by up to a third in the presumed Q2 trough in the UK and the US, as just two examples, which in the space of months would already take us to the kind of depths plunged back in the 1930s (and actually this will be the worst recession since the 18th century according to one UK report.) Moreover, in a world far more economically-integrated today than it was in the 1930s, what happens in the (smaller) West will rapidly hit the (larger) rest.

As will the virus itself, of course. What is to stop it rampaging through Africa and South Asia, as just two examples? “Heat!” we have been told. Yet besides the fact that Covid-19 is transmitting in Indonesia and Singapore we see a report today that French scientists have found some strains of the virus can survive long exposures to temperatures of up to 60c, and it takes almost boiling point to kill it. Another (non-peer reviewed) study from Australian and Taiwanese researchers based on samples from India has shown Covid-19 is already mutating, shifting its mechanism used to bind to human cells – the paper concludes “This means current vaccine development…is at great risk of becoming futile.” Moreover, a Chinese scientist is warning of a serious risk of a second global wave of Covid in November – exactly the pattern seen in the 1918-19 Spanish Flu.

I have to lean on black humor at such times and think of The Simpsons’ Comic-Book-Guy and his dead pan review: “Worst. Recession. Ever.

Not that this matters to markets at the moment. Major sovereign bond yields are ultra-low and not going anywhere for years – so the pressure is off; US high risk credit is now far less high risk given it has a Fed backstop (and what doesn’t?); and equities are back in bull market territory in many locations. That is partly on the back of a steady drum-beat of stories about when economies currently under lockdown are re-opened – which may not be too far away. How this workable when universal testing is still absent, high-tech contact tracing is just being rolled out, if the summer heat might not kill Covid off, and when the virus might be mutating ahead of what is already the most rapid vaccine development in history remains to be seen.

Equally, however, markets are ecstatic because there is no need to actually do any thinking at the moment. The Fed has made clear that there are to be no losers – or at least that one does not have to bother trying to pick the winners.

As in the infamous scene in the movie ‘When Harry Met Sally’, all that markets need to do to make money is to say I will have what the Fed is having.

How much further can we take the dichotomy of bull markets as we head to 10%, 15%, or perhaps 25% unemployment? Let’s test the structure in a teleological manner. Can everyone lose their jobs or be paid to do nothing, and all activity stop except that of the government, but everything still remain happy in markets because the Fed will just keep setting the price of assets? I believe we tried that from the 1930s up to 1991 (“We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us”) and it didn’t work out so well for those on the receiving end of it.

Yes, via MMT and helicopter money we could potentially see a ‘Sit For Victory’ war-economy that pays most people to stay at home until a vaccine is eventually rolled out alongside universal testing – but only in the richer members of the OECD. Emerging markets are not going to be able to do the same financially or practically. For them it’s all Comic-Book-Guy and no Sally.

Consequently, as the BIS argue, they are going to be forced to beg for USD liquidity – and soon. On which front, we hear that there is a split in the G-7 over how the IMF is to respond. There is agreement that a limited debt moratorium will be offered to struggling economies, which is better than nothing. However, the IMF’s desire to use its potential USD1 trillion lending power by massively increasing the issuance of Special Drawing Rights, as was done to the tune of USD250bn during the GFC, is apparently being blocked US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. No more US cash is being offered to the IMF, who prefers to keep the Fed front and centre of the USD liquidity roll-out process. (And I refer readers once again to our recent Eurodollar special on the real politik of the USD as global reserve currency.)

Of course, there is no longer going to be any US cash for the WHO either, or at least for 60-90 days while a review “to assess the World Health Organisation’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus” is completed. As the editor-in-chief of The Lancet has responded, to cut the funding of the WHO in the face of the current crisis is “a crime against humanity”; as is arguing there was no human-to-human transmission, repeatedly saying that it wasn’t a pandemic, declaring that international travel should not be halted, and that wearing masks is not helpful – at least according to the critics of the WHO within the US, who conclude “Worst. WHO. Ever.

Meanwhile, back in markets China has responded to its “V-shaped post-Covid recovery” with another rate cut: the one-year Medium Term Lending Facility to banks was slashed from 3.15% to 2.95%. Yet again we have a muddle over which rate really matters most in that economy, but the underlying picture is crystal clear. China needs to get far more liquidity into the real economy, but can’t match the level of easing being seen abroad for fear of destabilising CNY and ending up dealing with the kind of USD real politik being shown above. If it does get dragged into it, think not of Comic-Book-Guy – think of Fallout Boy.

end
Bill Blain...

What Is The Stock Market Telling Us?

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Shoebox in middle of road? Luxury… You had it lucky..”

What is the stock market telling us?

  • It believes in the Central Bank Put….?
  • It buys the story the recent slew of positively-trending Coronavirus numbers means a swift economic reopening and sharp recovery is around the corner?
  • Surely every sane, rational and competent asset manager understands the virus is long-term, and sees the coming depression, job losses, crashing incomes, demand and deflationary shocks, zero returns, defaults, bankruptcies and slashed real asset values from aircraft, factories and property, mean long term crisis?

Yep. They probably do.

But their job is to generate returns. 2020 will be an economic write off – but if state interventions, and hopes of an early end to lockdown, can keep pushing markets higher, they have to play it. They know tumbling and zero dividends will cripple returns this year – therefore they need to lock in returns now – hence the scramble for assets by investment managers, even as corporates desperately seek cash to get them through the next 3-9 months of lockdown. The risk is the mirror cracks and the market splinter…

Investors seek returns from some very unlikely places. AirBnB raised another $1 bn from investors to shore up its crumbling balance sheet – based on being back in full business by January 2021. (Note I did not say profit.. that’s still a filthy word for “tech” marvels.) But perhaps it makes sense if we see a travel and spending rebound as social distancing winds down. It’s a risk – some virus modellers say social distancing could be necessary for up to 2 years!

And talking of unlikely assets, Investors are apparently all over Softbank offering funding and acquisition packages.

Tesla stock is up another bazillion points (20% in two days) after investment banks slathered over each other to slap buy-recommendations on it because of “revenue growth” expectations. Sure… if every other car company dies… Tesla will do swimmingly well… But… it makes a kind of bizarre sense.. As a chum asked this morning:

“Would you rather take the red pill and go for an exciting all or nothing Tesla ride, or would you take the blue pill and remain with zero-dividend, dull, boring and badly managed HSBC?” 

He has a point.

Global Growth

Some scary growth numbers were being banded about yesterday. As expected the IMF came out with some choice negativity – predicting Global GDP falling 3% (a 6.1% percentage point decline from its previous estimate of 3% global growth in 2020.) That exceeds the downturn following the GFC in 2008 – and is the worst since the 1930s. There will be a rebound, but output will still be 5% down in 2021. Unemployment will rise and incomes will drop.

Aside from a few centenarians, it looks like we’re in for the worst recession in living memory. Therefore, it might be worth recalling some quotes from the definitive book on the Great Depression, JK Galbraith’s The Great Crash of 1929 – see how many boxes you tick.

“The fact was that American enterprise in the twenties had opened its hospitable arms to an exceptional number of promoters, grafters, swindlers, imposters and frauds..”

“At best, in such depression times, monetary policy is a feeble read on which to lean.”

“In the autumn of 1929 the mightiest of Americans were, for a brief time, revealed as human beings.”

“The values of a society totally preoccupied with making money are not altogether reassuring.”

“The autumn of 1929 was, perhaps, the first occasion when men succeeded on a large scale in swindling themselves.”

“Wall Street’s crime… was less its power than its morals.”

“Financial capacity and political perspicacity are inversely correlated…Here at least equally with communism, lies the threat to capitalism. It is what causes men who know that things are going quite wrong to say that things are fundamentally sound.”

There are lessons to learn – the main one being not to roll back stimulus too early.

The IMF is calling for global coordination on recovery stimulus – but there is a rising protectionism risk there. I expect the tensions between China and US to escalate as the virus panic recedes.

Stepping up the dial to 11, even more shocking was the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility which issued a scenario analysis where UK output tumbles 35% in Q2 following a three-month lockdown. The deficit will rise to 14% of GDP, and unemployment surge to over 2 million. The OBR is not some flaky bunch of doomsters, but calm, sober, rational economists. One of my smarter chums is among them. She doesn’t panic. She says it like it is.

Interestingly the IMF predicts positive growth in China and India – fuelling many of the conspiracy theories about China’s responsibility for the crisis. As the wise and all-seeing leader of the West halts payments to the WHO because it trusted China, there is all kinds of conspiracy stuff on the internet about how the virus must have been genetically engineered, specifically targeted to weaken the west by collapsing our health services.

Like most things we desperately want to find someone to pin the blame on, the likely explanation is the virus was an accident waiting to happen. China would be wise to fess up and admit the fault of wet markets, and be open about how dodgy the numbers it has published look.

I will accept the US Chair of Joint Chiefs of Staff when he said a natural origin is the most likely explanation for the genesis of the virus. (I can guarantee I’ll be trolled and get a screed of emails providing irrefutable proof it was the Chinese, but after burning down all our local G5 phone masts last night, I’m really too tired to care…) 

Banks

JP Morgan and Wells Fargo reported their expected shocking Q1 numbers. Both hiked credit loss provisions, anticipating major losses from consumer lending and credit cards, and SMEs. Less than 4% of JPM’s mortgages had missed payments in Q1 – but with US unemployment likely to hit 23 million in the next few weeks (and its beginning to bite the middle classes), where do bank losses go next?

If it’s bad in the US – where the banks were fixed post 2008 – how bad is it going to get in Europe. Ouch. 

end

7. OIL ISSUES

WTI Extends Losses Below $20 After Record Surge In Crude Inventories

WTI crashed below $20 (tagging $19.20) overnight after API reported huge inventory builds and was not helped by comments from the International Energy Agency that a historic production cut deal won’t be enough to counter a record demand slump this year.

This appears to confirm a key gauge of the oil market’s health which is at its weakest in more than a decade as supplies build and futures contracts roll over. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery traded at more than $7 a barrel below its June contract on Tuesday, the deepest contango since 2009. The May contract is nearing expiration and exchange-traded funds, including the United States Oil Fund, have been selling front-month contracts and buying second-month futures.

Source: Bloomberg

Simply put, this is an indication of extreme oversupply.

“At least over the next month or so, before these cuts have an opportunity to kick in, we are going to be very stressed on inventories,” Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said by telephone.

And so all eyes are once again on the inventories for any positive signs…

API

  • Crude +13.143mm (+10.1mm exp)
  • Cushing +5.361mm
  • Gasoline +2.226mm (+7.1mm exp)
  • Distillates +5.64mm (+1.8mm exp)

DOE

  • Crude +19.25mm (+10.1mm exp)
  • Cushing +5.724mm
  • Gasoline +4.914mm (+7.1mm exp)
  • Distillates +6.28mm (+1.8mm exp)

Everything is significantly worse than expected with record breaking builds in crude and gasoline and at Cushing…

Source: Bloomberg

Total US Crude stocks are now at their highest since June 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

And Gasoline stocks are at record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

…as Gasoline demand collapsed to series lows…

Source: Bloomberg

US production continued to slide (with U.S. Refineries running at the lowest rates since 2008)…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI crashed back below $20 after ramping up before the DOE data…

“We may see further downward pressure on prices in coming days and weeks,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

AFRICA/CORONAVIRUS/MISES

Now Africa is lockdown as their fragile economies will be in ruins unless they unlock their lockdown.

(Mises)

Flattening The Curve Or Flattening Bellies? Africa’s COVID-19 Dilemma

Authored by Michael Gyekye via The Mises Institute,

African governments have joined the global lockdown bandwagon as they press for an urgent halt to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. With more than ten thousand cases and hundreds of deaths to date, many on the continent believe that they are confronting the threat of an apocalyptic humanitarian catastrophe, potentially sparked by the virus’s penetration of slums in congested cities and the mass onslaught on scattered and poorly supplied health facilities. The lockdowns also come as declining commodity export revenues and dwindling stocks of imported goods threaten Africa’s fragile economies with imminent collapse and paralysis.

A worse dilemma could have hardly confronted African governments at this moment: although permitting normal economic and social life could spark an acute health crisis, keeping people indoors also risks a devastating economic malaise. The choice of the former by policymakers is a palpable gamble.

To date the lockdowns have elicited high compliance and only some misgivings, brutalities by security officials notwithstanding. The economic fallout is being doused with promises of relief and stimulus packages for households and businesses, including tax holidays, bailouts to businesses, and temporary releases from the payment of some utility bills.

Despite the good objectives behind the stimulus and relief packages, their effective administration and the ultimate relief of mass suffering is far from guaranteed. Rampant corruption means that business bailout packages carry the risk of unfair allocation and misapplication. Financial institutions with lean capital bases can also ill afford to suspend or cancel loan interest or principals, as they must also pay interest and meet other obligations to clients and investors. The promise of free utilities such as water in some countries even infuriated many when they were announced; people grumbled about how “free” utilities are only helpful to those who actually can access utilities from their homes. In a place such as Ghana, that’s hardly everybody.

Direct cash transfers appear to be more popular, and they could reach more of the population, but such transfers could sadly prove to be a catalyst of inflation, as steep declines in national production and hollow national treasuries may necessitate the printing of cash to make them possible.

As they strive to maintain domestic calm and manage the pandemic, African governments must still face the huge constraints that COVID-19 has further unleashed on their debt-servicing capabilities. Sub-Saharan governments alone owed around USD 583 billion in external debt as of 2018. Shortfalls in national revenues—due to tumbling commodity prices and unavailable domestic tax revenues—are set to whittle African governments’ ability to diligently service national debts. Declines in local production and foreign exchange earnings also threaten local currencies with depreciation relative to major currencies, making it even more expensive to service national debts denominated in those foreign currencies. The costs and local prices of imported goods could also rise, potentially raising the cost of living and heightening the risk of social and political unrest in those areas. The recent plea for Chinese debt relief for Africa must have been triggered by an awareness of this dire economic spectre.

How should Africa avoid this grim outlook? Policymakers must take a critical look at the COVID-19-induced lockdowns. They must also turn their attention to calls for the imposition of lockdowns in Africa only in exceptionally grave cases, intensify public education on the pandemic, and increase testing and treatment.

Misguided lockdowns may only flatten bellies instead of flattening the curve.

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0911 DOWN .0073 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.43 UP 0.217 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2485   DOWN   0.0139  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4051 UP .01700 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 16.11 POINTS OR 0.57% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 290.06 POINTS OR 1.19%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,35%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 290.06 POINTS OR 1.19%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.11 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  0. 35% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 88.72  POINTS OR 0.45%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1720.20

silver:$15.45-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.69% !!! DOWN 6 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.33 DOWN 7  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.54 UP 65 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.97% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.86%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,90 UP 12 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 104 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.46% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.36% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0904  DOWN     .0080 or 80 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.48 UP .375 OR YEN DOWN 38  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2510 DOWN .01140 POUND DOWN 114  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 227 basis points to 1.4109

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0676    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0684  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8929 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at _+.02%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 11 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.65 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.28 DOWN 12 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.64 UP 75  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 196.95 OR  3.40%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 423.50 POINTS OR 3.96%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 170.91 POINTS 3.78%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 270.10 POINTS or 3.80%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 774.08 POINTS OR 4.41%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 19.46 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 27.18 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    75.18  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 2.17 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 217 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.46 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  20.38//

 

 

BRENT :  27.84

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.63..down 12 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.27..down 14 basis pts…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0914 ( down 69   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.27 UP .412 (YEN DOWN 41 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.56 UP 67 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2534 DOWN 91  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.9111

 

 

the Russian rouble 74.88   DOWN 1.87 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 187 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4093 DOWN 203 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.46%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 445.41 POINTS OR 1.84%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 122.56 POINTS OR 1.44%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  41.00 CLOSED UP 3.24

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.176%//libor dropping like a stone

Libor-OI: 1.105

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Stumble At Critical Level After Economic Data Crashes At Record Pace

Today was a bloodbath for economic data (and that is before tomorrow’s horrific continuation of jobless claims) with almost every item experiencing record collapses (from Empire Fed to Retail Sales to Homebuilder and Homebuyer Sentiment). In fact the last four weeks – despite analysts knowing it was all coming – has seen the fastest crash and most disappointing collapse in US Macro data ever…

Source: Bloomberg

And while The Fed keeps printing money to rescue the (INSERT YOUR CHOICE OF – stock market, junk bond market, banks, airlines, or ‘Average Joe’ Americans), it’s not working…

Source: Bloomberg

Or put another way…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

The chart below illustrates why it is that the government must ensure that bear markets never happen. There is too much at stake to end the “casino economy” when people’s net worth is so crazily hitched to the stock market. Question is – at what cost??

And even the big bounce in stocks stalled after The Dow managed to scramble back to a 50% retracement of the drop…

Source: Bloomberg

And Nasdaq was unable to hold on to its 50- and 200-DMA…

On the week, Small Caps are down almost 5% and Nasdaq up around 3%…

Sending Nasdaq to its highest since Oct 2000 against the Russell 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA surged again today – up 35% in the last 3 days (GS upgraded today)…

And FANG Stocks extended gains – almost back to their record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks were ugly for the 3rd day but Goldman was bid after an ugly open…

Source: Bloomberg

Value factor is getting slayed this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals were dumped today…

Source: Bloomberg

HY Bonds were down again… despite The Fed put…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields plunged today led by a huge drop in long-end yields (30Y -12bps, 2Y -1bp)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y back below 70bps (biggest yield drop in almost a month)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened notably today…

Source: Bloomberg

Elsewhere in the world, Italian bonds blew out…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar surged higher today (biggest jump in a month) after dropping for 5 of the last 6 days (NOTE that the dollar reversed lower as soon as the US cash equity market opened)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were rangebound today unable to hold modest intraday gains…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI closed below $20 today (but Brent was harder hit)…

This is the lowest close since Feb 2002…

Source: Bloomberg

The front-month spread compressed a little today but remains a signal of a massive glut…

Source: Bloomberg

As Gasoline demand crashes to a record low…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures were lower today (not entirely surprising given the big surge in the dollar) and compressed the premium to spot…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Gerard Minack notes, the key to my medium term view is not what is happening now amidst the Covid-19 crisis. The key is that these arrangements remain in place in the recovery phase. The crucial difference is that I expect fiscal policy, backstopped by QE, will remain expansionary in the recovery phase, unlike in the post-GFC expansion when fiscal policy was typically tightening as QE programs were deployed.

I don’t expect many markets to price today the prospect of this seismic policy change…However, it may be that gold is now sniffing out this shift.

Source: Bloomberg

Through the past few years gold has behaved as a deflation hedge. The spot gold price was highly correlated to the value of negative yielding debt. That correlation is breaking down. Market alchemy may be transforming gold from a deflation hedge to an inflation hedge.

And as far as inflation is concerned… Avocado prices have never been more expensive at this time of year…

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

USA/ GLOBE//CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE

Global cases top 2 million and critics are outraged as Trump prints his name on the stimulus checks

(zerohedge)

Global Coronavirus Cases On The Cusp Of 2 Million; Critics Outraged As Trump Prints Name On Stimulus Checks: Live Updates

In a decision that is angering virtually all of his political opponents and even many of his supporters, who are bristling at the notion of a White House deliberately delaying badly needed checks, the Washington Post dropped a bombshell report last night when it revealed that the Treasury Department has ordered President Trump’s name to be printed on stimulus checks as the IRS scrambles to send checks to every American who doesn’t have direct deposit already enabled.

It will be the first time a president’s name has been printed on checks sent from the IRS, and officials disputed claims that the payments to 70 million Americans would be delayed so that Trump’s name could be printed on the checks. Trump had been pushing Steven Mnuchin to substitute Trump’s signature on the check, but there were some legal roadblocks. Instead, the president’s name will appear on the left side of the check below a heading that reads “Economic Stimulus Check”. The White House claimed that this batch of checks will be released more quickly than the stimulus checks ordered by President George W Bush after the financial crisis.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that 80 million Americans will have their stimulus checks in-hand by next Wednesday.

Over in Europe, as Spain and Italy start the process of sending more workers back to work, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said EU countries should use a “gradual tailor-made approach” to lifting lockdown restrictions. EU countries must make sure they meet three important preconditions before re-opening can proceed:

  • Significant decrease in the spread of the coronavirus
  • Sufficient health system capacity
  • Adequate surveillance and monitoring capacity

Meanwhile, Spain, which has the highest death toll per capita in Europe, reported the biggest increase in the number of new coronavirus cases in six days. The more than 5k new cases brought Spain’s confirmed total to 177,633, according to the Health Ministry. The number of fatalities rose by 523 to 18,579, compared to Tuesday’s increase of 637.

As socialist PM Pedro Sanchez touts data showing that the virus’s spread has slowed thanks to social distancing and the lockdown policies put in place by his government, members of the opposition confronted his government during a Parliamentary exchange on Wednesday where they accused Sanchez of undercounting the number of deaths linked to the virus across Spain.

“Nobody trusts you anymore,” one member of the opposition exclaimed. This is because Spain, like many other countries, only counts patients who have tested positive among the official figures. Yesterday, after criticisms published in the NYT, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio ordered health officials to count all deaths suspected of being caused by COVID-19, even if they hadn’t been officially diagnosed.

That prompted a nearly 4k surge in NYC’s official death toll, driving the citywide total north of 10k, and driving total US casualties north of 25k (per JHU, the US had 26,059 confirmed deaths as of Wednesday morning).

And as Trump’s critics in the press continue to hammer the administration’s response to the virus (the NYT followed up WaPo’s big hit piece from last week with one of its own this week to keep the conversation alive), ignoring the fact that few governments were truly prepared for the virus, and that the Trump Administration did more during the early days of the outbreak to stanch the spread than most of its peers abroad, the FT reports that the European Commission is holding a “donation drive” this week to try and raise funds for virus research.

After acknowledging a few weeks back that it neglected to count ‘asymptomatic’ patients in its total coronavirus patient tallies, China for the first time released a cumulative count of asymptomatic coronavirus cases. The number? 6,764 – which instinctively seems well below the total number of cases that were excluded from China’ national count.

The German government is set to extend its COVID-19 restrictions until May 3rd, according to Handelsblatt, though details of the Interior Ministry’s plan to reopen the German economy have already leaked.

As the number of confirmed cases in Japan nears 10k, the government has released a dire sounding warning claiming that some 850,000 Japanese could be seriously sickened by the coronavirus, with almost half of them in danger of dying if harsher steps aren’t taken by the Japanese government – which has already declared a state of emergency – to implement more social distancing requirements.

South Koreans headed to the polls on Wednesday after the government decided not to delay a legislative election set for Wednesday.

Before we go, with half the global population facing some level of lockdown or movement restrictions, animals are beginning to venture out into abandoned human territory. In parts of Wales, goats can be seen walking the streets of the town.

“The goats absolutely love it,” said Andrew Stuart, a resident of Llandudno, Wales…”They’re taking the town back. It’s now theirs. Nothing is stopping them,” he said

END

USA retail sales crash by the most ever in March and this was to be expected

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Crash By Most Ever In March, Despite Hoarding

While it is not entirely surprising given that practically all of America is under lockdown and the consumption-focused services sector is particularly distressed, US retail sales crashed 8.7% MoM in March (against expectations of a 8.0% drop)

Source: Bloomberg

Year-over-year, headline retail sales crashed 6.2% – the biggest drop since Sept 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

Ex-Autos dropped 4.5% MoM (slightly better than expected) and Ex-Autos-and-Gas dropped 3.1% MoM (again slightly better than expected, and the Control Group (that is used for GDP calculation purposes), somehow managed a 1.7% MoM rise (against expectations of 2.0% drop). The driver appears to be ‘hoarding’ as food and beverage and health stores saw huge rises in sales…

This was the biggest MoM surge in Food & Beverage store sales ever…

Source: Bloomberg

How long can that lift last? We would be worried about April’s data.

END

WOW!! The Empire state manufacturing index crashes the most ever to -78

(zerohedge)

Here Comes The Depression: Empire State Manufacturing Crashes Most Ever To -78, Lowest In History

This is what a depression looks like.

With Wall Street already expecting a catastrophic Empire Fed manufacturing index print of -35, just shy of the lows hit during the financial crisis, moments ago the NY Fed reported that New York State business conditions index plummeted fifty-seven points to -78.2, its lowest level in the history of the survey—by a wide margin. The chart says it all: the biggest miss ever, the biggest drop ever, the lowest print ever.

The details below the surface were dire: new orders and shipments declined at a record pace. Delivery times lengthened, and inventories fell. Employment levels and the average workweek both contracted at a record pace. Input price increases slowed considerably, while selling prices declined modestly. As usual, hope dies last and though current conditions were the worst in history, firms expected conditions to be slightly better six months from now.

 

Some more details: Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity declined dramatically in early April. The general business conditions index fell fifty-seven points to -78.2, its largest point drop to its lowest level on record. By way of comparison, the lowest level this indicator had reached prior to April was -34.3 during the Great Recession.

Seven percent reported that conditions improved over the month, while 85 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index fell fifty-seven points to -66.3, and the shipments index dropped sixty-six points to -68.1, indicating a  sharp decline in both orders and shipments. Delivery times were longer and inventories were modestly lower.

There’s more: labor market indicators were extremely weak. The index for number of employees fell fifty-four points to -55.3, with nearly 60 percent of respondents indicating lower employment levels. The average workweek index fell to -61.6, with 65 percent reporting shorter workweeks. The prices paid index fell nineteen points to 5.8, indicating a slowing in input price increases, while the prices received index fell to -8.4, pointing to a decline in selling prices for the first time since 2016.

Looking ahead, firms anticipate a small improvement in business conditions over the next six months. The index for future business conditions edged up six points to 7.0. The indexes for future new orders and future shipments declined, but remained positive, suggesting that firms expect orders and shipments to be modestly higher in six months compared with this month’s levels. The capital expenditures and technology spending indexes both fell to -11.0, a sign that firms planned to reduce both kinds of spending.

Finally, looking at other regional Fed indexes…

… the pain is only just starting.

end
Now industrial production crashes
(zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Crashes By Most Since End Of World War II

After surviving February (before COVID) with a modest MoM rise, US Industrial Production plunged 5.4% MoM (considerably worse than the 4.0% drop expected and the worst MoM since Jan 1946)…

Also, after briefly turning positive YoY in February, March Industrial Production is down 5.49% YoY – the worst YoY drop since Nov 2009

Source: Bloomberg

US Manufacturing production also collapsed, plunging 6.3% MoM and 6.6% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Capacity Utilization, not unexpectedly, collapsed to its lowest since April 2010 at 72.7%(against expectations of 74.0%)…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, The Dow Jones INDUSTRIAL Average is finally caught down to the US INDUSTRIAL production level…

Source: Bloomberg

…but after March’s drop in IP (and The Dow’s Fed-floored bounce), The Dow still has a long way to go.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA airlines bailed out

(zerohedge)

US Airlines, Treasury Department Reach Deal For Billions In Bailout Aid

After weeks of negotiations over the shape of the Treasury’s bailout package of US airline carriers, moments ago the Treasury Department announced it had reached an agreement in principle with the country’s airline to access billions of dollars in aid as the government attempts to shore up one of the industries hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic, various sources reported.

As part of the deal all major US carriers including Alaska Airlines, Allegiant Air, American Airlines, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, United, SkyWest and Southwest will participate in the payroll support program, providing fresh hope that the US airline sector will survive despite several recent stock sales by Warren Buffett which were seen as a nail in the coffin of the sector.

The airlines applied for portions of $25 billion in payroll grants that require airlines not to furlough or cut the pay rates of any employees through Sept. 30. The grants were part of the more than $2 trillion coronavirus relief package Congress passed last month.

“We welcome the news that a number of major airlines intend to participate in the Payroll Support Program,” the Treasury Department said in a statement. “This is an important CARES Act program that will support American workers and help preserve the strategic importance of the airline industry while allowing for appropriate compensation to the taxpayers.”

Airlines are expected to provide detail on the aid as early as Tuesday, two of the people familiar with the discussions said, with Bloomberg starting to leak some of the details already such as American Airlines:

  • AMERICAN AIR TO GET $4.1B DIRECT SUPPORT, $1.7B LOAN
  • AMERICAN AIR: PSP PROTECTS FROM FURLOUGHS, PAY CUTS THRU 9/30
  • AMERICAN AIR AGREED TO LIMITS ON BUYBACKS, DIVS, EXEC PAY
  • AMERICAN AIR: U.S. AID ENOUGH TO HELP `WITHSTAND THIS CRISIS’
  • AMERICAN AIR TO CONTINUE `AGGRESSIVE SELF-HELP’ COST MEASURES
  • AMERICAN AIR PARING BACK FLIGHT SCHEDULE FOR JUNE AND BEYOND
  • AMERICAN AIR: 32,000 WORKERS CHOSE TO RETIRE, TAKE LEAVE

As noted above, the grants will come with additional conditions, most likely in the form of limits on buybacks, dividends and further layoffs. The Treasury Department has asked airlines to pay back 30% of the grants, essentially turning a portion of them into low-interest loans. Lawmakers and labor unions objected to those terms, saying the aid package Congress passed last month intended that the funds would not be structured as loans.

The aid represents a temporary lifeline for airlines after the outbreak and government travel restrictions erased all but 5% of daily passenger demand in the U.S. Forced in some cases to pay more in refunds than they were taking in from new ticket sales and fees, carriers have cut capacity as much as 80% and parked thousands of planes in the industry’s worst-ever disruption.
Shares of American Airlines Group Inc., United Airlines Holdings Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. and Southwest AirCo. all rose on the news in extended trading.

END

The USA is now witnessing a second wave of coronavirus layoffs of workers.  They thought they were safe..guess again

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Hunter Biden is still a board member of a Chinese company after vowing to resign

(zerohedge)

Why Is Hunter Biden Still Listed As Board Member Of Chinese Company He Vowed To Resign From?

Hunter Biden is many things. Ukrainian energy expert, artiststripper impregnatorcrack aficionado. Oh, and he’s still a board member of a Chinese private equity firm he said he’d resign from last October, according to Chinese business records reported by the Daily Caller.

Hunter Biden’s lawyer, George Mesires, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in early November that his client had resigned from BHR’s board, but he did not provide any evidence of his departure from the Chinese private equity firm at the time.

Chinese business records the DCNF accessed Tuesday still name Hunter Biden as a director of BHR. He also retains a 10% equity stake in BHR through his company, Skaneateles LLC, business records for the Chinese private equity firm show. –Daily Caller

In October, Biden pledged to leave the company, BHR Partners, a private equity fund backed by some of China’s largest state banks, local government and the national pension fund, by the end of that month.

According to BHR’s website, they manage $2.1 billion in assets. Biden, who remained an unpaid board member since its founding in 2013, obtained his equity stake in the firm in October, 2017 valued at $420,000 according to his attorney, Mesires. ‘

Hunter Biden had arranged for then-Vice President Joe Biden to shake hands with the CEO of BHR in December 2013, a meeting that caused some White House advisors to worry whether the younger Biden was exposing his father to criticism, The New Yorker reported.

In a statement issued Oct. 13 by his lawyer, Hunter Biden pledged to resign his position on BHR’s board “on or by October 31.” The statement did not say whether Hunter Biden intended to relinquish his ownership stake in the Chinese private equity firm. –Daily Caller

“The statement my son put out today, which I saw when he put it out — I was told it was going to be put out, I did not consult with him about what’s being put out — in fact represents the kind of man of integrity he is,” said Hunter’s father, Joe Biden, last October.

Yet, according to independent data provider Qixinbao, Hunter is still listed as a BHR board member as of Tuesday.

The Caller notes that Biden’s continued presence on the list couldn’t be due too a processing delay in China’s National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System (NECIPS), as a March 24 submission to reflect the resignation of Biden’s business partner, Eric Scherwin, as the company’s supervisor, was reflected. Scherwin and Biden served together as loobbyists for Oldaker, Biden & Belair as far back as 2008.

Finally – guess what address is listed for Biden’s firm – Skaneatles? Why, his $12,000 per month Los Angeles rental house valued at $3.8 million – which he resided in while desperately trying to avoid paying child support to the former Arkansas stripper he impregnated.

“Man of integrity,” indeed.

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Aides expect Schumer, Mnuchin to reach deal on coronavirus relief… provide money to businesses, hospitals and state governments…[6: 00 ET Tuesday – dollar fell; gold jumped on the report]

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/492615-aides-expect-schumer-mnuchin-to-reach-deal-on-coronavirus-relief

In Tuesday’s missive we listed the reasons that an equity rally was likely on Tuesday.

Traders bought beaucoup options on Monday in anticipation of a Tuesday rally.  Traders then poured into ESMs [ES = eMini futures for S&P 500 Index; M = June expiration] during Asian trading on Tuesday.  After a retreat during European trading, ESMs surged after the US repo market opened (7:00 ET).  Traders ignored JPM and WFC’s troubling Q1 results.  The euphoria for a Turnaround Tuesday rally and the standard expiry week upward manipulation drove ESMs to a 77-hande (2.8%) gain by 10:20 ET.

JPMorgan, Wells Fargo Offer Reality Check as Virus Mauls Profit

JPMorgan’s profit fell 69% to the lowest in more than six years, even as the firm’s traders seized on record volatility to deliver their best quarter ever. Wells Fargo posted earnings of 1 cent per share, down from $1.20 a year earlier…

    JPMorgan set aside $8.29 billion for bad loans, more than double what many analysts expected. That was on top of a $4.3 billion increase in total reserves that the bank had previously announced, prompted by a new accounting standard this year known as CECL, which requires banks to set aside provisions earlier in a cycle. Wells Fargo’s $4 billion provision was also well beyond expectations

https://news.bloombergtax.com/financial-accounting/jpmorgan-wells-fargo-offer-reality-check-as-virus-mauls-profit

Hedge Fund Managers Are Claiming Bailouts as Small Businesses

Some hedge funds already have applied, filling out forms to show they have fewer than 500 employees and certifying the “current economic uncertainty makes this loan request necessary to support the ongoing operations.”… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/hedge-fund-managers-are-claiming-bailouts-as-small-businesses

@ABC: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo responds to Pres. Trump’s false claim of “total” authority over states: “We don’t have a king in this country.”

After the close on Tuesday: Airlines, Treasury reach deal on $25B coronavirus relief package

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/airlines-treasury-reach-deal-on-25-billion-relief-package

@CBSNews last evening: Pres. Trump says that “the plans to reopen the country are close to being finalized” https://cbsn.ws/2ydS3SD

WaPo: This is how the CDC and FEMA plan to gradually reopen the nation; some parts perhaps within weeks… gives guidance to state and local governments on when and how they can ease off drastic restrictions such as stay-at-home orders in a phased way…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/14/cdc-fema-have-created-plan-reopen-america-heres-what-it-says/

We recently have obtained a passel of new subscribers.  The symbols we use as shorthand can be confusing.  A link to popular future contracts and month codes [We have no idea who this group is]:
http://www.thecervellegroup.com/websites/rf/Commodity_Symbols/commodity_symbols.html

Trump halted US funding for WHO.  Several Dems, including senators, voiced opposition to the move.

Attorney General William Barr Issues Statement on Religious Practice and Social Distancing; Department of Justice Files Statement of Interest in Mississippi Church Case: “Government may not impose special restrictions on religious activity that do not also apply to similar nonreligious activity …

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-william-p-barr-issues-statement-religious-practice-and-social-distancing-0

@justin_hart: Something dreadful happened in the NYC.  The data tell me: COVID19 is almost exclusively an NYC area pandemic!  Let the rest of us out! But we do need to investigate what happened: NYC + 7 counties surrounding it have as many deaths as the next 900 counties in the US.

Details: 1047 of 3071 counties [in US] have registered at least 1 death; 371 of those counties have registered just 1 death; 465 noted 2 to 10 deaths; 171 counties 11 to 100; Just 33 counties have 100 to 500; Only 5 counties have more than 500 deaths2 counties w/ 1000+ deaths

Cook County Jail [in Chicago] stands as the largest single point of infection in the U.S., though, with more than 500 people testing positive [for Covid] so far… [Shutdown the entire state over a Cook County jail epidemic?  Did released prisons spread the virus elsewhere?]   https://theweek.com/speedreads/908647/covid19-spreading-fast-nursing-homes-homeless-shelters-jails-south-dakota

Poll Worker at Chicago Voting Site Dies of Coronavirus, Election Officials Say

Pritzker and the Chicago Board of Elections traded barbs on Election Day in March over the Board’s claim that he denied its request to postpone the election or move to all mail-in ballots… Pritzker said in an earlier statement that he did not have the authority to cancel or delay the election – a change that would have required legislative approval…

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-politics/poll-worker-at-chicago-voting-site-dies-of-coronavirus-election-officials-say/2255072/

State Department cables warned of safety issues at Wuhan lab studying bat coronaviruses

“… the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory,” states the Jan. 19, 2018, cable…

    “Most importantly,… the researchers also showed that various SARS-like coronaviruses can interact with ACE2, the human receptor identified for SARS-coronavirus. This finding strongly suggests that SARS-like coronaviruses from bats can be transmitted to humans to cause SARS-like diseases…”  The Chinese government’s original story — that the virus emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan — is shaky the first known patient, identified on Dec. 1, had no connection to the market…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/

CBS WH correspondent Paula Reid on Monday: “Why are there no consequences for China?

DJT: “You’d probably be the last person I’d tell.” [Reid’s husband is reportedly a lobbyist for China.]

@greg_price11: CNN also published a report that the Chinese Navy is containing coronavirus better than the U.S. It was sourced directly from the Chinese military.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/13/cnn-press-release-chinese-military-pla-coronavirus/

@alexsalvinews: CNN anchor Chris Cuomo says his COVID diagnosis has made him rethink his career: “I don’t like what I do, professionally, I’ve decided … I don’t value indulging irrationality, hyper-partisanship. I don’t think it’s worth my time anymore.”

NPR: Bloomberg News Killed Investigation, Fired Reporter, Then Sought To Silence His Wife

The reporting team pursued the next chapter, focusing on Chinese leaders’ ties to the country’s richest man, Wang Jianlin. Among those in the reporters’ sights: the family of new Chinese President Xi Jinping. The story gained steam throughout 2013… That story never ran…

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/14/828565428/bloomberg-news-killed-investigation-fired-reporter-then-sought-to-silence-his-wi

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

 

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