APRIL 17A//RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER TODAY BY THE CROOKS//GOLD DOWN $27.80 TO $1685/60//SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TO $15.16//ALMOST 95 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//HUGE CORONAVIRUS STORIES FOR YOU TODAY//USA LAUNCHES A FULL SCALE INVESTIGATION INTO THE WUHAN LAB AND THE VIRUS THAT THEY SET FREE//3 IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES FOR YOU TO READ OVER THE WEEKEND: ALASDAIR MACLEOD//MICHAEL EVERY AND HUGH SMITH//SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD:$1685.60  DOWN $27.80   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $15.16//DOWN 24 CENTS

   The quote is London spot price

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1685.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $15.16//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $1718.50

MAY COMEX GOLD:  1725.20 1:30 PM

JUNE GOLD:  $1735.10  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $21.10

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER APRIL COMEX CLOSE: 15.42/

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $15.60-…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY:  20 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 3/80

issued 0

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,720.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/16/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 04/20/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
099 H DB AG 55
132 C SG AMERICAS 8 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 72
661 C JP MORGAN 3
686 C INTL FCSTONE 13
690 C ABN AMRO 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 80 80
MONTH TO DATE: 29,635

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 80 NOTICE(S) FOR 8,000 OZ (0.2488 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  29,635 NOTICES FOR 2,963,500 OZ  (92.177 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  nil  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 806 for 4,025,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $7074 DOWN  25 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $7057 DOWN $45

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD LEAVES THE GLD//

 

GLD: 1,021.69 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

A WITHDRAWALS  OF 1.3999 MILLION OZ/

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 414.038  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY A GOOD SIZED 751 CONTRACTS FROM 140,358 UP TO 141,102 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR STRONG 24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO SOME  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A CONSIDERABLE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ALONG WITH A ZERO GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING. WE HAD A GOOD NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1781 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 1030 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1030 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1030 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1030 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.150 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.145  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 24 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A GOOD NET GAIN OF 1781 CONTRACTS OR 8.905 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MAY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

12,837 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 12,837 CONTRACTS) OR 64.185 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1167 CONTRACTS OR 5.684 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 64.185 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.16% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          957.68 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR                   64.185 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 751, WITH THE CONSIDERABLE 24 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1030 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1781 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1030 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 751 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.16 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.7% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: NOTICE(S) FOR   nil OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.145 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 417 CONTRACTS TO 491,454 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR COMEX LOSS IN PRICE  OF $27.80 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR LOSS IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD NO ISSUANCE OF OUR NEW 4 GC CONTRACT

 

WE GAINED A GOOD 1799 CONTRACTS  (5.59 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2216 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 2216.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2216.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 491,454. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1799 CONTRACTS: 417 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2216 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 1852 CONTRACTS OR 5.59 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD HUGE LOSS OF $27.80 IN GOLD TRADING.…..

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 5.59 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (FELL $27.80). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC ISSUANCE:  ZERO

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD  A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2216) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY LOSS IN COMEX OI  (417 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1799 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//FRIDAY

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 53,906 CONTRACTS OR 5,390,600 oz OR 167.67 TONNES (12 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 4900 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 167.67 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 167.67/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.72% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2490.57  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

 

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               167.67  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 751 CONTRACTS FROM 140,351 UP TO 141,102 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1030 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 1030; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1030 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE GOOD COMEX OI GAIN  OF 751 CONTRACTS TO THE 1030 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 1827 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  8.9055 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ//APRIL 4.145 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1030 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

 

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.56 POINTS OR 0.66%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 373,55 POINTS OR 1.56%   /The Nikkei closed UP 607.06 POINTS OR 3.15%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.41%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 67.0740 /Oil UP TO 18.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 28.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0740 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0787 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 417 CONTRACTS TO 491,454 MOVING FURTHER FROM TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL COMEX OI LOSS WAS SET WITH OUR  LOSS OF $27.80 IN GOLD PRICING //FRIDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (2216 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH THAT HUGE STANDING  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 1852 CONTRACTS.

WE AGAIN HAD ZERO 4- GC CONTRACT ISSUANCE

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2216 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 2216 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2216 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  1799 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2216 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A TINY SIZED 417 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE $27.80). THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 5.59 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 1799 CONTRACTS OR 179,900 OZ OR 5.59 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  491,454 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.14 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1528 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1528/2200 OR 69.48% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 323,634 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY218,722 contracts//

APRIL 20

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

270,518.516

OZ

BRINKS

INT. DELAWARE

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
80 notice(s)
 8000 OZ
(0.2488 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
748 contracts
(74,800 oz)
2.326 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
29,635 notices
2,963,500 OZ
92.177 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

i ) We had 0 deposits into the dealer

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Brinks:  80,634.710 oz

 

ii) Into INT. DEL:  189,883.806 OZ

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 270,518.516   oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawals; NIL   oz

We had 0  kilo transactions

 

We had zero  4 KC bar transaction

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1

dealer to customer

i) Out of Brinks: 385.812 oz adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer  Brinks

 

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 828 contracts for a LOSS of ONLY  79 contacts. We had 80 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A VERY STRONG 66 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 6,600 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and they also negated a fiat bonus

 

 

May saw its ANOTHER GAIN of 193 contracts to stand at  5392.

June saw a  LOSS OF 2908 contracts  DOWN to 345,264

 

 

We had 80XX notices filed today for 8000 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 80 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (29,635) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (828 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (80 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,038,300 OZ OR 94.503 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (29,635)x 100 oz + (828 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today -(80) x 100 oz which equals 3,038,300 oz standing OR 94.503 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

THIS GREATLY SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42. TONES OF GOLD STANDING IN ANY MONTH

We gained 66 contracts OR an additional 6600 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the this side of the pond, first before travelling to London..

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

322,144.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.02 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  540,194.208  OZ OR 16.824  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 126.317 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  4,602,023.315 oz or 143.142  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  540,904.208 oz or 16.824 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 4,061,119.1  (126.317 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  4,061,119.1 (126.317 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  13,761,120.442 oz (428.02 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   18,634,048.085 oz 579.59 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   148.256 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  431.334 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

April 17/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 751 CONTRACTS FROM 140,351 DOWN TO 141,102 (AND CLOSER TO FROM  OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR GOOD OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE 24 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/FRIDAY.  THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A CONSIDERABLE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION OCCURRING WITH OUR SMALL SILVER GAIN IN PRICE. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 23 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR 0 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 1413  DOWN TO 44,849.

JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 8 CONTRACTS RISING TO 78.

 

 

We, today, had  0X notice(s) FILED  for NIL, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

April 20/2019

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 801,847/613 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
625,592.490 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
23 contracts
 115,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  806 contracts

4,025,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into CNT; 625,592.490  oz

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.170 million

 

total customer deposits today: 625,592.490   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of CNT:  442,546.370 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 354301.800 oz
iii) Out of Delaware: 4999.442  oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  801,847.613   oz

We had 1 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

i) From CNT  5111,800 oz from dealer to customer

 

total dealer silver:  81.788 million

total dealer + customer silver:  317.926 million oz

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 806 x 5,000 oz = 4,025,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.(23) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 806 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (23)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.equals 4,145,000 oz.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT  THE COMEX.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 49,396 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY:  55,840 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 55,840 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 279 million  OZ  39.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO +0.86% ((APRIL 17/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO +0.51% to NAV:   (APRIL 17/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 0.86%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.45 TRADING 15.37///DISCOUNT 0.31

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES..THE STRING OF 12 STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSITS ENDS..

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES/12TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

APRIL 17/2020/  1021.69 tonnes*

IN LAST 801 TRADING DAYS:   +75.35 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 701 TRADING DAYS;+250.33  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3999 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

 

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

 

 

APRIL 17.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

414.038 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 4.00/ and libor 6 month duration 1.13

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 2.87

gold non existent//central banks will call in all of their leased gold.

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.22%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.98

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.24

gold non existent//central banks will now call in their leased gold

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

U.S. Mint Halts Gold and Silver Coin Production; Supply Shortages Deepen and Premiums High

Gold in USD – 3 DaysGold prices inched lower on Friday but continuing safe haven demand to protect from the coming global recession or depression and global debt crisis will support gold. Strong demand means it is on course for its second straight weekly gain in all major currencies after hitting new all time record highs in euros, pounds and other currencies this week.

The shortage of small and large gold bullion coins and bars continues and may deepen as prices move higher and we enter a financial crisis. The U.S. Mint suspending gold coin production now along with silver coin production (see below) will exacerbate the strong demand and limited supply challenges and may lead to premiums remaining elevated.

Due to our direct relationships with leading refineries and as Authorised Distributors of government mints, we continue to sell gold bars (1 oz, kilo and 400 oz) and silver bars (1,000 oz) and gold coins including Gold Britannias and Sovereigns and Gold Nuggets or Kangaroos in volume. Our premiums have risen to reflect the rise in wholesale premiums from our mint and refinery partners, but we continue to have some of the most competitive premiums in the world.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

U.S. Mint Plant Halts Gold Coin Output Just as Demand Is Surging (see chart below)

Gold on track for 2nd weekly gain on global recession fears

Virus threatens to hit economy harder than war and flu in 1918

A double recession? Economies risk debt crises after stimulus spending

Gold Still Shines 50 Years After Nixon. Will Netflix?

China’s gold market rebounds

Bullion banks hemorrhaging silver on Comex

Here are the contracts showing how $4.5 trillion in stimulus was outsourced to Wall Street

 

 

“Yes It Will. The Only Question Is When” – WATCH HERE

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

16-Apr-20 1717.85 1759.50, 1378.57 1382.91 & 1581.45 1589.06
15-Apr-20 1712.25 1718.65, 1367.92 1377.33 & 1566.02 1580.99
14-Apr-20 1715.85 1741.90, 1367.36 1383.07 & 1567.91 1588.26
09-Apr-20 1662.50 1680.65, 1339.48 1348.22 & 1529.00 1538.13
08-Apr-20 1649.05 1647.80, 1328.27 1330.27 & 1517.00 1513.14
07-Apr-20 1652.20 1649.25, 1344.23 1333.75 & 1519.53 1511.21
06-Apr-20 1636.60 1648.30, 1330.72 1341.06 & 1515.49 1526.66
03-Apr-20 1609.75 1613.10, 1310.66 1315.97 & 1490.47 1495.34
02-Apr-20 1588.05 1616.80, 1277.59 1307.02 & 1452.27 1489.72
01-Apr-20 1594.25 1576.55, 1288.95 1270.23 & 1457.94 1442.86

Receive Our Award Winning Market Updates In Your Inbox – Sign Up Here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Pam and Russ Martens explain how the $4.5 trillion stimulus money was outsourced to Wall Street

(Pam and Russ Marten/Wall Street on Parade/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Here are the contracts showing how $4.5 trillion in stimulus was outsourced to Wall Street

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, April 16, 2020

Bloomberg News has an article up today with the headline: “The Fed Loves Main Street As Much As Wall Street This Time.” The article is accompanied with a graphic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell shooting equal amounts of money at Main Street and Wall Street.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Despite the headline, the article, by Peter Coy, offers not a scintilla of evidence to support the premise that Main Street is getting a fair shake from the Fed. What the article does do is adopt the talking points the Fed has used in every press release it has issued on a new funding facility rollout — that the money will (through some magical and invisible and unexplained hand of the market Gods) make its way to American workers and households.

It’s all bunk. Here’s what is actually happening.

The stimulus bill (CARES Act) stipulates that the U.S. Treasury will provide $454 billion of the $2.2 trillion total to the Federal Reserve. That $454 billion will be the loss-absorbing capital to leverage the Fed’s purchases of toxic debt from Wall Street to a maximum of 10 times or $4.54 trillion.

So already Main Street is behind. Main Street is getting $2.2 trillion minus $454 billion for Wall Street and $46 billion for airlines and “national security” businesses, likely meaning Boeing. That leaves $1.7 trillion versus the $4.54 trillion that will be offered to Wall Street, or $2.84 trillion more heading to bail out Wall Street. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/04/here-are-the-contracts-showing-ho…

* * *

END

A must read..Alasdair Macleod discusses the huge derivatives facing our crooked banks and how they are desperate to cover their huge losses.

Alasdair Macleod..

 

Alasdair Macleod: The looming derivatives crisis

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, April 16, 2020

The powerful forces of bank credit contraction are at the heart of a rapidly evolving financial crisis in global derivatives, whose gross value is over $600 trillion — an unimaginable sum. Central banks are on course to destroy their currencies through unlimited monetary expansion, lethal for bullion banks with fractionally reserved unallocated gold accounts, while being dramatically short of Comex futures.

This article explains the dynamics behind the current crisis in precious metal derivatives, and why it is the observable part of a wider derivative catastrophe that is caught in the tension between contracting bank credit and infinite monetary inflation. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-looming-deriva…

The looming derivative crisis

The powerful forces of bank credit contraction are at the heart of a rapidly evolving financial crisis in global derivatives, whose gross value is over $600 trillion; an unimaginable sum. Central banks are on course to destroy their currencies through unlimited monetary expansion, lethal for bullion banks with fractionally reserved unallocated gold accounts, while being dramatically short of Comex futures.

This article explains the dynamics behind the current crisis in precious metal derivatives, and why it is the observable part of a wider derivative catastrophe that is caught in the tension between contracting bank credit and infinite monetary inflation.

Introduction

One of the scares at the time of the Lehman crisis was that insolvent counterparties risked collapsing the whole over-the-counter derivative complex. It was for this reason that AIG, a non-bank originator of many derivative contracts, had to be bailed out by the Fed. By a mixture of good judgement and fortune a derivative crisis was averted, and by consolidating some of the outstanding positions, the gross value of OTC derivatives was subsequently reduced.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, in mid-June last year all global OTC contracts outstanding were still unimaginably large at $640 trillion, a massive sum in anyone’s book. It is unlikely to have changed much by today. But in bank balance sheets only a net figure is usually shown, and you have to search the notes to financial statements to find evidence of gross exposure. It is the gross that matters, because each contract bears counterparty risk, sometimes involving several parties, and derivative payment failures could make the payment failures now evident in disrupted industrial supply chains look like small beer.

Deutsche Bank’s 2019 balance sheet gives us an excellent example of how they are accounted for in commercial banks. It conceals derivative exposure under the headings “Trading assets” and “Trading liabilities” on the balance sheet. You have to go into the notes to discover that under Trading assets, derivative financial instruments total €80.848bn, and under Trading liabilities, derivative financial instruments total €81.910bn, a difference of €1.062bn This is relatively trivial for a bank with a balance sheet of €777bn.

But wait, there is another table that breaks derivative exposure down even further into categories, and it turns out the earlier figures are consolidated totals. The true total of OTC derivatives and exchange traded derivatives to which the bank is exposed is €37.121 trillion. That is nearly thirty-five thousand times the €1.062bn netted difference in the balance sheet. And when you bear in mind that valuing OTC derivatives is somewhat subjective, or as the cynics say, mark to myth, it invalidates the valuation exercise.

Clearly, by taking the mildest of a positive approach to derivatives held as assets, and a slightly more conservative approach to valuing derivatives on the liabilities side, that 35,000:1 leverage at the balance sheet level can make an enormous difference.

Now let us take our imagination a little further. A large number of these derivatives will have commercial entities as counterparties, businesses that have been shut down by the coronavirus since the balance sheet date. With the German economy already heading into recession before the coronavirus closed down much of the global economy, Deutsche Bank’s risk of losses arising from its derivative position could turn out to be in the trillions, not the one billion netted difference shown on the balance sheet.

Not only is there the emergence of counterparty failures to deal with, but there are ever-changing fair values, which will particularly reflect interest rate spreads increasing for Deutsche Bank’s €30.25 trillion interest rate-linked derivatives. We cannot know whether it is net positive or negative for shareholders. And with balance sheet gearing of assets 22 times larger than share capital very little change could wipe them out.

Deutsche Bank is not alone in presenting derivative risk in this manner: it is the elephant in many bank boardrooms. As a weak link, Deutsche is a relevant illustration of risks in the banking system. Since the Lehman crisis, its senior management has been on the back foot, retreating from businesses they could neither control nor understand. They have also made very public mistakes in precious metals, which is our next topic.

Gold derivatives in crisis

While a struggling bank like Deutsche provides us with a laboratory experiment for how a derivative virus can kill a bank, we are now seeing it kill off bullion banks in real time. A rising gold price, out of the control normally imposed by expandable derivatives, has effectively gone bid only in any size. We are told this is due to COVID-19 shutting mines and refineries and disrupting logistics, and so is purely temporary. The LBMA and CME which runs Comex have been issuing calming statements and even announced the introduction of a new 400-ounce gold futures contract alleged to ease the supply shortage.

In short, the gold derivative establishment is panicking. The swaps position on Comex shows why.

Picture 1

With their net short position in very dangerous territory, Comex swaps are badly wrongfooted at a time when the Fed and other central banks have announced unlimited monetary inflation, signalling a paradigm shift in the relationship between sound and unsound money. For ease of reference and to understand their relevance, a swap dealer is defined by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which collates the figures, as follows:

An entity that deals primarily in swaps for a commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with those swap transactions. The swap dealer’s counterparties may be speculative traders, like hedge funds, or traditional commercial clients that are managing risk arising from their dealings in the physical commodity.

Therefore, a swap dealer is one that operates across derivative markets, and typically will trade in London forwards as well as on Comex. In a nutshell, it describes a bullion bank’s trading desk.

In a further piece of disinformation this week, Jeff Christian, head of CPM Group, in an obviously staged interview for MacroVoices claimed that traders in London were forced by their banks to cover trading risk in the futures market as a condition of their funding. The implication was shorts on Comex are matched to longs in London’s forward market and therefore not a problem. This may be true of an independent trader looking for arbitrage opportunities between markets but is not how it works in a bank.[i]

The mechanics of gold derivative trading

A bank which has bullion business will almost certainly have a trading desk and be a member of the LBMA. Look at it from a banker’s point of view. The bank has business flows in gold, which requires access to the market and a dealing capability. He will employ one or more gold traders with acknowledged expertise to manage the desk. As a profit centre and because a skilled trader will require it, he will give the desk discretionary trading limits and monthly or quarterly profit targets. Part of the deal with the desk is profits will be struck net of the cost of funding the book, usually a reference to Libor, which is effectively the marginal cost to the bank of expanding its credit to back the dealers’ positions.

When the gold desk has established a profitable track record, the banker will be eager to raise the trading desk’s position limits. For bullion banking this has been going on for years, and while individual trading desks come and go, traders now have a large degree of dealing autonomy. It is not, as Mr Christian misinforms us, just a covered arbitrage business between forwards in London and futures in America.

The LBMA lists twelve market makers, all of which are well-known banks. There are thirty-one other banks, some of which run trading desks which take positions. It is worth noting that dealing in gold is normally one of many banking and trading activities undertaken by an LBMA member bank, including forex trading with which this activity is very similar.  All of them are funded by the expansion of bank credit, which is the point of having a banking licence.

Turning to Comex, according to CTFC data there are a maximum of 28 swap dealers which recently have been active in gold futures, either with long or short positions. These numbers tie in nicely with the likely number of trading desks and designated market makers in the banks which are LBMA members.

An LBMA member bank will have physical bullion business and is likely to offer allocated and unallocated accounts to customers. Since the point of banking is to operate a fractional reserve-based customer service, a bullion bank discourages allocated (custodial) accounts, usually by making them an expensive way for customers to hold bullion. Unallocated accounts, which under fractional reserve banking will be a multiple of gold or gold derivatives in the possession of the bank, becomes the bank’s standard customer offering.

One of the benefits of LBMA membership is it gives a bullion bank access to paper markets, so that it can replace physical bullion held against unallocated client accounts with long positions for forward settlement, positions that can be rolled and rolled without ever having to take delivery. Another benefit is access to leased gold from central banks which store bullion in the Bank of England’s vault.

One can begin to see why dealings between LBMA members are so significant, recently hitting 60 million ounces a day, the equivalent of 1,866 tonnes. This represents dealings between LBMA members only and excludes dealings between a member and a non-member. In the distant past they were included in LBMA estimates, which inflated the numbers even further by a factor of about five times.

All this is done on minimum bullion liquidity, which when you take away central bank gold, physical ETF custodial bullion, as well as bullion owned or allocated to miscellaneous institutions, family offices and private individuals stored in London bullion vaults, is not the 8,326 tonnes claimed in a recent LBMA press release designed to calm the markets, but is almost certainly significantly less than a thousand tonnes.

Clearly, running long positions for forward settlement has become a substitute for backing unallocated accounts with a fractional amount of physical metal. While the trading books in London keep the plates spinning in their dangerously geared operation, the profit opportunities on Comex have become a separate matter instead of just a hedging facility.

Officially described as speculators, but better described as suckers, gold and silver futures are the medium for a repeating cycle whereby market makers supply them contracts by drawing on the ability of their banks to create bank credit out of thin air. Once the suckers run out of buying power, the market makers pull the rug out from under them, taking out their stop-loss points. It has been an immensely profitable exercise for swap dealers.

Fortunately for swap dealers, the suckers have short memories. Until last year, it was a frequently repeated exercise, leading to a blasé attitude. Corruption among traders had become rife and they began to be caught spoofing and rigging the fix against bank customers. Dealers were sacked, fined and jailed. Deutsche Bank were fined and forced out of the twice-daily fix. A JPMorgan trader pleaded guilty last August to manipulating the precious metals markets for nine years. Another with the same firm had pleaded guilty the previous October. In the past five years federal prosecutors have brought twelve spoofing cases against sixteen defendants, most pleading guilty.

This corruption is typical of end-of-cycle behaviour, when the derivative ringmasters in precious metals believe they have risen above the law. The point behind the current crisis unfolding in the gold derivative markets is the scam has fully run its course, and the bankers in charge of bullion desks will be increasingly concerned of the reputational damage.

How the ending of the gold derivative scam started

In the past, bullion banks always managed to put a lid on open interest, returning it from an overbought 600,000 contracts to under 400,000 contracts, in the process getting an even book or exceptionally going long, ready for the next pump-and-dump cycle. But then something changed. Last year, the pump-and-dump schemes of the bullion banks’ trading desks went awry, with open interest rocketing to nearly 800,000 contracts by January this year. After several failed attempts, in June 2019 gold had broken above $1350, which encouraged the speculators to chase the price up even further. The interest rate outlook then softened along with the global economy, and by early September, with open interest threatening to rise above the historically high 650,000 level, the Fed was forced to inject inflationary liquidity into the US banking system through repos. At its peak on 23 January 2020, the sum of all short positions on Comex was the equivalent of 2,488 tonnes of gold, worth $125bn. The suckers were finally breaking the banks, who held the bulk of the shorts. This can be seen in the chart below of Comex open interest

comex

It was imperative that the position be brought under control, and accordingly, it appears that central banks, presumably at the behest of the Bank of England, arranged for gold to be leased to the bullion banks to ease liquidity pressures. And then trading desks were hit by a perfect storm.

The coronavirus put large swathes of the global economy into lockdown, disrupting payment chains in industrial production. This meant that formerly solvent businesses now face collapse and are turning en masse to their banks for liquidity. The bankers’ natural instinct is no longer the pursuit of profit, but fear of losses, and they now have an overwhelming desire to contract outstanding bank credit. In a panic, the Fed cut the Fed funds rate to the zero bound and promised unlimited liquidity support in a desperate attempt to avoid a deflationary spiral. Meanwhile, our swaps traders in gold futures were caught record short, the worst possible position for them given the evolving situation.

The coup de grâce has now come from their banking superiors. Despite the efforts of the Fed to persuade them otherwise, bankers in their lending have become strongly risk-averse and know they will be forced to commit bank credit to failing corporations against their instincts. For this reason, they are taking every opportunity to reduce their balance sheet exposure to other activities. One of the first divisions to suffer is bound to be bullion bank desks running short positions, synthetic in London and actual on Comex, which are wholly inappropriate at a time of massive monetary inflation.

It is this last pressure that has led to an unusual combination of collapsed open interest, shown in the chart above, and rising gold prices, accompanied by a persistent premium of $40 or more over the spot price in London. Clearly, there is good reason for the LBMA and the CME to panic. If the gold price rises much further, there will be bullion desks, managing shorts on Comex and fractionally reserved positions in London, at risk of bankrupting their employers.

The Comex contract, which anchors itself to physical gold through the option of physical delivery at expiry, will face enormous challenges when the active June contract expires at the end of next month. At expiry, the speculators have a chance to obtain delivery. Normally, when the spot price is lower than the future, only the insane would insist on delivery at the higher price. But with very low availability of bullion and price premiums for delayed delivery common, London is being rapidly drained of physical liquidity as well. It is like a good old-fashioned one-two boxing combination: first the Comex market is delivered a body-blow, and then the LBMA gets an uppercut.

Many central banks who have stored their earmarked gold at the Bank of England will be unhappy as well, having leased their gold in the expectation it would stabilise the bullion market. They will not do it again for an interesting reason: gold leasing rates have turned strongly negative, with the two-month rate currently minus 3.7%.[ii] No sensible entity is going to pay a lessor to lease its gold and will want leased gold returned instead. Therefore, the availability of gold for leasing is now cut off and gold already leased will need to be returned if delivered to the lessors, or unencumbered if it remained in the Bank of England’s vaults as is the normal leasing practice.

Gold liquidity in London will then disappear entirely, at which point those with a claim to custodial gold will hope that their property rights remain protected.

Broader implications of the failure of gold derivatives

This article has gone into some detail why Comex and the LBMA face their current difficulties, and why liquidity is vanishing. For any bank with large unallocated gold liabilities, bearing in mind they are fractionally reserved mostly against derivatives instead of bullion, these problems are likely to lead to their withdrawal from the market. ABN-Amro is already reported to have closed its customers’ accounts, having forced them to sell positions, and other banks will surely follow.

The gold derivative market is probably the largest foreign exchange cross after the US dollar euro. But it is also the most fundamental of all monetary exchange markets. The relationship was famously captured in John Exter’s inverse pyramid, which showed how the world’s credit obligations were all supported on a diminishingly small apex of gold.

The liquidity pressures that result from banks trying to reduce their balance sheets also affects other derivative markets, and from our discourse on Deutsche Bank’s balance sheet, we can see that the whole banking system is in a very precarious position with respect to derivatives. While we survived the Lehman crisis with only one investment bank failing, the collapse of industrial production of goods and services due to lockdowns to control the spread of the coronavirus will almost certainly lead to multiple bank failures. Bankers are staring into an abyss.

For central banks, monetary inflation is everywhere the solution. Bank rescues, payment chain failures, the furloughing of millions of employees, helicopter money to bail out whole populations, money to bail out governments, money to support all categories of financial assets: the list is endless in scope and infinite in quantity. The survival of the global financial system is at stake. If it survives, state-issued money will have been destroyed. But then what is the point of owning financial assets valued in valueless currency?

While this process of monetary destruction would have reasonably been expected to evolve over time, the coronavirus has accelerated it. The fate of the $640 trillion derivative mountain recorded by the Bank for International Settlements is sealed and will be settled through bank bankruptcies and state-directed elimination. In observing the train wreck that is precious metal derivative markets, we are at Act 1 Scene 1 of a rapidly-evolving and dramatic derivatives tragedy.

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0740/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0787   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 18.56 POINTS OR 0.66%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 373.55 POINTS OR 1.56%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 607.06 POINTS OR 3.15%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 100.12/Euro FALLS TO 1.0838

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.76/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 18.35 and Brent: 28.47

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.47%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.76% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.80%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.23: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.10

3k Gold at $1693.50 silver at: 15.20   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 31/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.92

3m oil into the 18 dollar handle for WTI and 28 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9699 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0513 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.47%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.65% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.24%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8722..

Futures Soar On Reopening, Corona Cure Optimism; Ignore Mountains Of Bad News

Even though the Gilead “miracle drug” report was refuted by the company itself, which slammed the market-moving Statnews article (sourced reportedly from hedge funds who were seeking to take profit in GILD) as “anecdotal reports with no statistical power”, and even though Trump’s plans to reopen the country turned out to be far less pressing than expected, with Trump effectively handing power into the hands of states, this morning futures and global stocks have continued their move higher after blasting off last night on the Gilead/reopening speculation, with the euphoria persisting overnight as the small steps toward restarting the world’s largest economy helped investors look past mixed progress on curbing the coronavirus and the latest dismal data from China, where GDP posted its first contraction in four decades, sliding 6.8% or more than expected.

The data from China showed the world’s second-largest economy shrank for the first time since at least 1992 because of the coronavirus woes. GDP contracted 6.8% in the quarter year-on-year, more than expected, and 9.8% from the previous quarter. Retail sales also fell more than expected in March, but industrial output dipped only slightly, suggesting its manufacturing sector at least is recovering more quickly.

As WTI oil slumped, further extending its divergence with Brent…

… the dollar tried to rebound and bond yields were generally unchanged, US equity futures rallied nearly 100 points, or 4%,  from the Thursday close and approached the limit-up lock on several occasions, reflecting optimism that major economies will slowly start lifting lockdown restrictions and signs of medical progress against the virus.

The week is ending on an optimistic note after the White House set guidelines to reopen the economy, though it has yet to ensure that widespread testing will be available as many business leaders have urged. The president is under pressure, with 22 million Americans applying for jobless benefits in a month, erasing a decade worth of job creation. At the same time, infections have surged in Russia, Germany and Singapore. Investors also assessed a report that Gilead Sciences is seeing improvements in a group of coronavirus patients being treated with its drug, although the company itself refuted the report. German Chancellor Angela Merkel this week announced tentative steps to begin returning the country to normal.

“The market is a bit optimistic right now,” David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, said on Bloomberg TV. “Ultimately we have to have really great coordination in order to see any real improvement in the economy.”

Prior to Friday’s cash open, the S&P 500 was up 0.4% this week and set for a second straight weekly gain – its first back-to-back weekly gain since before the market turmoil began in February – despite an unprecedented collapse in the US (and Chinese) economy, and 22 million people laid off in the past month, as investors scour first-quarter earnings to find signs of the novel coronavirus outbreak’s effects on companies’ balance sheets.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index also climbed 2.6%, entering a bull market, after it rose 20% from its March lows, with the travel and leisure sector leading the gains although all 19 industry groups were in the green. Banking stocks helped the Stoxx Europe 600 Index jump to a session high as lenders are said to seek to avert stashing billions for soured loans; the banks subgroup surges as much as 4.3%. European lenders are set to report comparatively small increases in loan loss reserves in the first quarter and plan a similar approach during the rest of the year, Bloomberg News reports, citing senior bankers and regulators.

European countries have “no choice” but to set up a fund that “could issue common debt with a common guarantee”, French President Emmanuel Macron told the Financial Times on Thursday. Failure to do so would lead to populists winning elections in Italy, Spain, and possibly France, he also warned.

Yields on ultra-safe 10-year U.S. Treasuries US10YT=RR and German Bunds rose slightly, while Treasury futures TYc1 and the dollar firmed against the yen JPY=EBS, in another tentative sign of investor optimism.

“The market continues to look through terrible data… on anticipation of economies reopening,” said Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank. “And hopes that a new drug treatment will help lift longer term uncertainty about the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained as traders shrugged off the catastrophic China GDP data noted above, led by IT and materials, after falling in the last session. All markets in the region were up, with Jakarta Composite gaining 3.4% and South Korea’s Kospi Index rising 3.1%. The Topix gained 1.4%, with Riken Technos and Kichiri Holdings & Co Ltd rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7%, with Zhejiang Xinneng Solar Photovoltaic Technology and Jiangsu Boxin Investing posting the biggest advances.

In rates, the 10Y yield initially bounced sharply from its 0.62% close rising almost as high as 0.69% before reversing virtually all gains. Italian bond markets, which have been under pressure as the country’s virus difficulties push its debt-to-GDP ratio towards 150%, also rallied as France expressed support for joint euro zone debt issuance.

In commodities, spot gold fell 1.5% to $1,692 per ounce too and with investors looking to take on more risk industrial metal copper jumped 4% on track for its best week since February 2019. No such luck for battered oil markets however. WTI futures slumped 8% to an 18-year low after OPEC had lowered of its global demand forecast on Thursday, and Brent crude slipped back under $28 a barrel having been up nearly 3% at one point. OPEC now sees a contraction of global demand of 6.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year due to the coronavirus outbreak.

“Downward risks remain significant, suggesting the possibility of further adjustments, especially in the second quarter,” OPEC said of the demand forecast.

Looking at the day ahead, the data releases include new car registrations for March in the EU27, the Italian trade balance for February and the final Euro Area CPI reading for February. From the US we’ll also get the leading index for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bullard and the ECB’s Rehn.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 2.6% to 2,859.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 2.5% to 333.14
  • MXAP up 1.8% to 144.79
  • MXAPJ up 2% to 468.07
  • Nikkei up 3.2% to 19,897.26
  • Topix up 1.4% to 1,442.54
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 24,380.00
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,838.49
  • Sensex up 1.8% to 31,166.28
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 5,487.54
  • Kospi up 3.1% to 1,914.53
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to -0.476%
  • Euro down 0.09% to $1.0830
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.0 bps to 1.659%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.831%
  • Brent futures down 0.3% to $27.73/bbl
  • Gold spot down 1.3% to $1,695.70
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 100.13

Top Overnight News

  • China’s gross domestic product shrank 6.8% from a year ago, the worst performance since at least 1992 when official releases of quarterly GDP started and missing the median forecast of a 6% drop
  • Cantor Fitzgerald is shrinking its workforce, breaking with firms across Wall Street that vowed not to lay off employees during a pandemic that’s unleashed the worst unemployment crisis in decades
  • The Italian government may set up a 70 billion-euro ($76 billion) package of spending measures in a decree due to be approved on Monday morning, Il Sole 24 Ore reported
  • More than 15,000 U.K. companies fell into “significant distress” in the first three months of 2020 as the virus shutdown took its toll on the economy, according to a quarterly survey published on Friday by insolvency specialist Begbies Traynor
  • The Trump administration issued a guideline to governors outlining steps for phased reopening. Some U.S. states and employers may be able to abandon most social distancing practices to curb the coronavirus outbreak within four weeks under guidelines.
  • The U.S. Treasury Department is in talks with some airlines about accepting their loyalty programs as collateral against government loans to help them weather the virus crisis.

Asian equity markets notched firm gains after tracking the advances in US equity futures following the announcement of reopening guidelines for the US economy and amid hopes of a COVID-19 treatment after positive results for Gilead’s Remdesivir drug in closely observed clinical trials, despite the Co. downplaying the reports. In addition, Boeing shares took off after-hours as the Co. plans to resume commercial airline production in Washington state factories next week. ASX 200 (+1.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+3.2%) surged from the open with corporate updates contributing to the stock rally in Australia including Rio Tinto which posted higher quarterly iron ore output and shipments, while Tokyo sentiment benefitted from the government’s relief efforts including the JPY 100k cash handouts to all citizens, and the TAIEX (+2.1%) was also boosted with chipmakers inspired by strong earnings from global semiconductor giant TSMC. Hang Seng (+1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) conformed to the broad optimism following reports the PBoC will continue to the guide credit funds to support smaller firms through targeted RRR cuts and with the gains maintained regardless of the slew of mixed tier-1 data which showed Chinese GDP Y/Y at -6.8% vs. Exp. -6.5% Y/Y, although GDP Q/Q was at a slightly narrower than expected contraction. Furthermore, Industrial Production and Retail Sales added to the varied narrative although China’s stats bureau remained optimistic in which it suggested a visible improvement in major economic indicators last month and likelihood of a continued recovery. Finally, 10yr JGBs were pressured amid spillover selling from T-notes with prices dampened as stocks rallied from US reopening guidelines and hopes of progress for COVID-19 treatment.

Top Asian News

  • Car Inc. Stock, Bonds Soar as Warburg Pincus Unit to Boost Stake
  • China Stocks Advance as Traders Look Past Poor Economic Data
  • Indian Central Bank Boosts Liquidity to Offset Virus Hit
  • RBI Halts Bank Dividends, Injects Cash to Help Indian Borrowers

European equities hold onto a bulk of sentiment-driven gains (Euro Stoxx 50 +3.6%), albeit the region has waned off highs alongside US equity futures. The slight fade in risk appetite follows questions regarding whether reopening the US economy soon will revive an outbreak of COVID-19. Meanwhile, the second catalyst is attributed to Gilead’s treatment showing rapid recoveries among severe cases, but the Co. caveated stating the data does not satisfy safety and efficacy profiles. Traders may also be wary to open/hold onto risky positions heading into another weekend of uncertainty. Nonetheless, broad-based gains are seen across major European bourses as April option expiries provided the region with impetus, with CAC 40 (+3.8%) modestly outpacing peers amid post-earning gains from giants L’Oreal (+2.7%) and LVMH (+4.9%) – which together account for almost 14% of the French index and around 5% of the Euro Stoxx 50. Sectors are in the green across the board and lean towards a risk-on session – with cyclicals outperforming defensive. The breakdown sees Travel & Leisure outperforming whilst the underperformance in Healthcare seems to be more of a risk-driven move. In terms of individual movers, Airbus (+8.7%) shares soar amid reports Boeing (+8.1% pre-mkt) is to resume production at its Seattle factory as soon as Monday next week. Thus, engine makers also gain impetus, with Rolls Royce (+11.3%) and Safran (+8.8%) buoyed. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto’s (+3.3%) iron ore shipment update supports share prices, with peers Antofagasta (+2.9%), Glencore (+9.0%), BHP (+5.1%) and Fresnillo (+2.0%) all higher in tandem. On the flip side, Diasorin (-7%) shares reside at the foot of the Stoxx 600, potentially Gilead seemingly leads the race between the Cos regarding antibody testing.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Weidmann Tells Governments to Spend Now But Save Later
  • Europe Autos Jump as Market Optimism Outweighs March Sales Slide
  • Airbus Chief Says Virus May Require Difficult Jobs Decision
  • Rate Cut ‘Main Option’ for Bank of Russia Next Week: Nabiullina

In FX, the Dollar is back in demand despite renewed risk appetite for global equities if nothing else on the back of more moves to scale back COVID-19 restrictions and positive anti-virus treatment results. The index has bounced firmly from 99.689 lows to reclaim 100.000+ status and is only marginally shy of Thursday’s 100.300 high amidst almost blanket Greenback gains vs G10 peers.

  • JPY/NZD/AUD – The Yen continues to resist the Buck’s advances and the bulk of safe-haven unwinding, with reports of Japanese offers into rebounds over 108.00 in Usd/Jpy capping the headline pair, while crosses remain bearish barring extreme bouts risk asset buying. On that note, the Kiwi has regained a degree of stability after yesterday’s RBNZ-related jolt to retest 0.6000 climes and reverse some underperformance against the Aussie, as the cross slips back below 1.0600 and Aud/Usd fades ahead of 0.6400 following mixed Chinese data overnight (GDP contraction not quite as bad as feared overall, retail sales weaker than forecast, but ip vice-versa).
  • CAD/EUR/CHF/GBP – All making way for the latest broad Dollar upturn, as the Loonie retreats from just under 1.4000 to sub-1.4100 against the backdrop of waning oil prices and the Euro loses more momentum having failed to retain grip of the 1.0900 handle earlier this week. However, the single currency may derive some traction from option expiries again given hefty interest between 1.0835-50 (1.9 bn) and the 1.0800 strike (1.7 bn), in contrast to Usd/Cad that could see 1.9 bn at 1.4000 defended or protected. Meanwhile, the Franc is still caught in the crossfire in terms of weakness around 0.9700 vs the Greenback and strength relative to the Euro as Eur/Chf skirts 1.0500, but Sterling is softer across the board as Cable tops out above 1.2500 and Eur/Gbp rebounds through 0.8700. Note, the former continues to respect the 200 HMA at 1.2525 and latter is prone to almost daily or intraday periods of fix induced volatility. Ahead for the Pound, Moody’s UK ratings review poses downgrade risk to current standing and/or outlook.
  • SCANDI/EM – Contrasting fortunes for the Sek and Nok, as the aforementioned downturn in crude scuppers the Norwegian Krona irrespective of independent Euro weakness, while the Rub takes note of Brent contagion from WTI and guidance from the CBR Governor to the effect that a rate cut is on the agenda for the April 24 policy meeting.

In commodities, WTI and Brent June futures remain choppy in early European trade, with the former’s June contract quoted given the shift in volume as its front-month expires in the coming days. Due to the colossal contango in the market, WTI May contract trades lower by some 9% (around USD 18/bbl), whilst the June future sees prices in the green on the day above USD 25.50/bbl at the time of writing. Market fundamentals remain unchanged thus far as participants await the OPEC+ pact to go into effect on May 1st, whilst on the lookout for commitments from outside the group. On that front, desks highlight that ConocoPhillips’ announcement regarding 200k BPD to its North American output highlights somewhat meaningful unmandated cuts outside OPEC+. Analysts at ING note “instead, market forces will do the job, with the low-price environment forcing producers to cut back.” Looking ahead to next week, the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) is expected to revisit the issue on mandated state cuts. Supporters at the prior meeting on the 14th April argued about sever storage shortages and potential record numbers of bankruptcies amid market conditions. The effectiveness of the OPEC+ deal was also downplayed whilst they added that the RRC must do its part. Adversaries contended that the least profitable wells are already being shut and that RRC actions will not solve the crude crisis. WTI June resides towards the bottom end of the its intraday range, having waned off USD 26.78/bbl highs, whilst its Brent counterpart similarly declined from highs near USD 29/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold remains on the backfoot and trades on either side of USD 1700/oz as DXY reclaims 100.000 to the upside, and with market contacts earlier reporting stops through 1705-1700/oz. The yellow metal thus far printed an intraday base at USD ~1687/oz, albeit remains in the green for the week having opened at USD ~1660/oz on Monday. Copper meanwhile withstands the strength in the Buck and moves in tandem with stocks following a shallower than expected contractions in Chinese QQ Q1 GDP and March Industrial Production, but prices remain capped by resistance at ~USD 2.3675/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Leading Index, est. -7.2%, prior 0.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Straight to China this morning where Q1 GDP has just come in at -6.8% yoy (consensus -6.0%). The previous weakest quarters (in data back to 1992 on Bloomberg) were the 6% seen over the last two quarters – so an historic moment for modern China. The rest of the activity data was a mixed bag. Industrial production was better than expected -1.1% yoy (vs. –6.2% expected) however both retail sales and fixed asset investment were much weaker than expected at -15.8% yoy (vs. -10.0% expected) and -16.1% ytd yoy (vs. -15.0% expected). So, industrial production got a lot better in March after a disastrous Jan-Feb, but fixed asset investment and retail sales is lagging. Elsewhere, the surveyed jobless rate printed at 5.9% vs. 6.2% last month. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said following the data that it is seeing good progress on work resumption; however added that the external situation is becoming more complicated.

Despite the weaker than expected GDP print the Shanghai Comp (+0.89%) and CSI (+1.23%) are both higher along with other major bourses including the Nikkei (+2.19%), Hang Seng (+2.31%), ASX (+1.87%) and Kospi (+2.96%). Instead, investors appear to be leaning on the encouraging news from the medical publication Stat, that a group of patients being treated in Chicago with a trial of Gilead’s drug Remdesivir were “seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms”. The report added that most patients showed improvement and were discharged subsequently, with only two fatalities (read our Corona Daily for more on this).

Also helping sentiment this morning was the announcement from President Trump on new guidelines on easing restrictions and reopening the US. He announced that 29 states were in the “ballgame” to reopen soon, with a set of markers needed to be hit before state governors should open their states up. At this point many states are coordination with other states in their regions to coordinate reopening together. Dr. Birx, one of the top public-health experts on the White House coronavirus task force, reiterated that the state leaders will have a leeway based on their own judgement. The recommendations include that states show a “downward trajectory” in cases and flu-like illnesses for at least two weeks. Then they can begin a 3-phase process to reopen. States should then continue to show declining caseloads every two weeks before moving onto the next phase, while any significant “rebound” in numbers could mean needing to bring restrictions back. Schools, daycares and bars would not reopen before phase two, whereas restaurants, movie theaters and sports stadiums could open in phase one under certain restrictions. Regardless of the Presidents announcements, New York Governor Cuomo extended his state’s lockdown until May 15, with New Jersey following suit soon after. S&P 500 futures have gained +3.21% in response, also helped partly by double digit afterhours gains for Boeing following news that the company plans to restart manufacturing in the Seattle area next week.

While President Trump announced guidelines on easing restrictions, a number of other countries moved to extend them. In the UK, it was announced (unsurprisingly) that the lockdown would remain in place for another 3 weeks to early May. This is broadly in line with the timetables that other European nations have outlines in recent days. Meanwhile Japanese Prime Minister Abe extended the state of emergency across the entire country, having previously been just in 7 prefectures. And in Australia, Prime Minister Morrison said that there were no plans to change the baseline restrictions for the next four weeks. On the other end of the spectrum, Switzerland announced it will reopen some businesses and schools in three stages from April 27. For more on all things virus related see our Corona Crisis Daily for much more.

In markets, if yesterday had been a day in January of this year you would have said that it was very volatile as the S&P 500 saw 4 big swings around flat of at least 1.4%. We ended up closing at the top end of the range (+0.58%) as markets started to get excited as to what Trump was going to say after the bell about re-openings. Technology stocks outperformed, with the NASDAQ advancing +1.66%, meaning it’s now down “only” -13.09% from its closing peak back in February, out-pacing the S&P 500 which still stands -17.32% below its previous peak. Technology stocks have benefited from “stay-at-home” narratives and lower interest rates boosting growth multiples. Elsewhere in Europe the Stoxx 600 was -0.19%.

Over in fixed income, the move to safe assets saw both US Treasuries and bunds rally further yesterday. 10yr Treasury yields ended the session -0.5bps at 0.627%, just 8.6bps above their all-time closing low back in early March, while bund yields fell by -0.9bps. Southern European debt also managed to recover slightly yesterday, with the spread of 10yr yields on Italian (-4.2bps) and Spanish (-2.4bps) debt narrowing over bunds. However, those on Greek debt widened by a further +7.1bps.

On a related topic, President Macron yesterday expounded on the importance of a larger virus recovery fund and that without coming together in this crisis the EU will unravel, as Eurosceptism would rise in the countries not supported. France has been the largest country pushing the idea of joint debt issuance. In an FT interview posted as Europe was going home (well maybe commuting from the study to the kitchen) he remarked that, “we are at a moment of truth, which is to decide whether the European Union is a political project or just a market project. I think it’s a political project. . . We need financial transfers and solidarity, if only so that Europe holds on”. These comments come after European Commission President von der Leyen apologized to Italy while painting a picture of a Europe that was coming together, “too many were not there on time when Italy needed a helping hand at the very beginning,” she said. “For that, it is right that Europe as a whole offers a heartfelt apology.” ….The truth is that now Europe has become the true beating heart of solidarity. The true Europe is now standing up.” We will see if all this brings a more specific plan next week at the leaders’ summit.

In terms of data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US has lost some of its shock value now but we still saw an astonishing reading at 5.245m in the week ending April 11. There’s obviously no sugar coating how bad this is, but markets did have the small consolation that this was the first time in a month that the reading wasn’t quite as bad as the consensus estimate (5.5m). Furthermore, this is the 2nd consecutive week that the reading has fallen, down from a peak of 6.867m. Nevertheless, if you add up the last 4 weeks’ readings, which are the highest in the history of the series, they sum to over 22m, something that is simply unprecedented. For context, the total number of nonfarm payrolls in the US in March stood at 151.8m, so we’re talking well over 10% of the entire US workforce in the space of a month having made jobless claims. Yesterday’s report also means that practically an entire decade of employment growth has been wiped out in a single month. The 10 years of jobs reports from March 2010 to February 2020 saw nonfarm payrolls rise by a cumulative 22.8m. The two series do not completely correspond with each other but I’m sure you see the big picture.

Further hard data for March showed that the pandemic’s impact extended into the housing market, with US housing starts falling to 1.216m (vs. 1.3m expected). The decline of -22.3% on the previous month is actually the biggest monthly decline since March 1984, and comes only 2 months after January’s reading, which saw the largest number of housing starts since December 2006. Meanwhile the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for April fell to -56.6 (vs. -32.0 expected), which was its lowest level since July 1980.

Here in the UK, the government has refused to ask for an extension of the Brexit transition period. Downing Street added that they’d also refuse if Brussels asked them for an extension instead. The government spokesman said that it was “better to be clear now and minimise the uncertainty for businesses”. Under the Withdrawal Agreement reached with the EU, the UK government have until the end of June to decide whether to extend the standstill transition period past the end of the year, and while they’ve insisted throughout the process that they’d conclude negotiations by the end of this year, speculation has risen thanks to the coronavirus that they could be forced to delay. The next negotiating round is scheduled for next week, and a “high-level meeting” is also scheduled for June to take stock of progress so far. So something bubbling under the surface and something the EU could do without given all that’s going on with Italy.

To the day ahead now, and the data releases include new car registrations for March in the EU27, the Italian trade balance for February and the final Euro Area CPI reading for February. From the US we’ll also get the leading index for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bullard and the ECB’s Rehn.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.56 POINTS OR 0.66%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 373,55 POINTS OR 1.56%   /The Nikkei closed UP 607.06 POINTS OR 3.15%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.41%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 67.0740 /Oil UP TO 18.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 28.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0740 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0787 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

China’s GDP collapses to -6.8%..worse than expected

(zerohedge)

“A Bad Global Precedent” – Chinese GDP Collapses More Than Expected, Worst Since At Least 1992

So, the question is – just how ‘manufactured’ will this smorgasbord of Chinese macro data be? As v-shaped as the incredible ‘survey’ data? Or as realistic as the traffic and pollution numbers suggest?

The red oval is the ChiNext stock index’s reaction to the worst of China’s virus impact… green is PMI and red is the macro surprise index (which will be smashed one way or the other tonight)…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course the big one tonight is Chinese GDP growth. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 6% contraction in the first three months of the year, when the coronavirus outbreak forced an unprecedented lockdown of factories, stores and schools across the country (ING Bank saw a +3.6% print and at the other end of the spectrum, Capital Economics forecast a 16.0% contraction in GDP).

“China’s economy is going to recover only gradually,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

“If the government over-stimulates, the only result will be a lot of wasted spending and greater debt. And that won’t help resolve the core problem of China’s economy: low productivity.”

Additionally, the government will also release data for retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial output for March, offering the most complete picture yet of the economic destruction since the virus outbreak (but we have already seen the collapse in this monthly data for February and expectations are for a rebound or slowdown in the collapse).

And so here we go… the magic number for tonight is… a miss – Chinese GDP shrank by 6.8% from a year ago (considerably worse than the 6.0% drop expected) and the worst drop on record (since 1992)

As Bloomberg notes, the sharp contraction underscores the pressure that Chinese policy makers face as they attempt to revive the economy without nullifying efforts to contain the virus. The continued spread around the world also threatens to add fresh downward pressure on China’s exporters in a feedback loop that could throw millions out of work.

“The economic loss is unprecedented,” Pacific Investment Management Co. economists wrote.

“The global recession will hit exports primarily in the second and third quarters of 2020, domestic demand is still hampered by quarantine curbs, and stimulus transmission is weak amid spreading bankruptcies and job losses.”

And the rest of the Chinese data improved marginally but:

  • Industrial Production fell 8.4% YTD YoY (better than -10.0% exp)
  • Retail Sales fell 19.0% YTD YoY (worse than -12.5% exp)
  • Fixed Asset Investment fell 16.1% YTD YoY (worse than 15.0% exp)
  • Property Investment fell 7.7% YTD YoY
  • Surveyed Jobless Rate improved from 6.2% to 5.9%

As Bloomberg’s Asia Economy Team Manager, Malcolm Scott notes, the March numbers probably tell us a bit about human psychology as well as economics — you can turn factories back on and rev up production lines, but it’s tougher to restore consumer confidence that’s been so badly shaken. And while the consumer plays a larger role in China’s economy today than in the past, it’s nothing like the contribution in most advanced economies. That could be a bad precedent globally. 

Finally, International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in an online media briefing on Tuesday that the fund is tipping 1.2% growth for China this year.

“The rest of the global economy is now in the grips of the pandemic and there are severe containment measures around the world so that would have a big negative impact in terms of external demand on China’s growth.”

However, “until there is a usable vaccine, it is tough to see life getting anything like being back to vague normality,” warned Jim O’Neill, Chair of Chatham House and the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief economist who coined the term BRIC.

And for those craving the next stimulus move by Chinese officials, Shang-Jin Wei, a China expert at Columbia Business School in New York and formerly chief economist of the Asian Development Bank, warns: “Prevention of a return or the ‘second wave’ of the virus outbreak is more important than getting a high growth rate for the remainder of the year.”


END

Nobel prize winner Dr Luc Montagnier, the HIV discoverer, explains that the Covid 19 virus could only have been created in a lab.  Its release was by accident and he claims that they were trying to get a vaccine for AIDS

(zerohedge)

end
Late in the day:  The uSA launches a full scale investigation into the Wuhan lab and the virus they set free
(zero hedge)

US Launches ‘Full-Scale Investigation’ Into Wuhan Lab

The United States has launched a ‘full scale investigation’ into whether COVID-19 escaped from a biolab in Wuhan, China, according to Fox News.

According to the report, US intelligence operatives are gathering information regarding the laboratory and the initial outbreak of the virus, which was found in a horseshoe bat specimen collected by scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2013 in a cave in Yunnan, China.

The investigation will help intelligence analysts piece together a timeline for what the CCP knew, as well as ‘create an accurate picture of what happened.’

The findings, which aren’t expected to take long, will then be presented to the Trump administration to determine how to hold China accountable for the pandemic which has killed over 150,000 people and infected at least 2 million as of this writing.

On Wednesday, Fox News reported that the virus likely originated in the Wuhan lab as part of an effort to prove that China’s ability to identify and combat viruses is equal or greater to the United States, as opposed to the creation of a bioweapon. Although according to the Nobel Prize-winning professor who discovered HIV, SARS-CoV-2 is a manipulated virus which was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Professor Luc Montagnier says that the virus was clearly being used to study an AIDS vaccine.

“With my colleague, bio-mathematician Jean-Claude Perez, we carefully analyzed the description of the genome of this RNA virus,” explains Luc Montagnier, interviewed by Dr Jean-François Lemoine for the daily podcast at Pourquoi Docteur, adding that others have already explored this avenue:

In order to insert an HIV sequence into this genome, molecular tools are needed, and that can only be done in a laboratory,” he added.

Fox News, on the other hand, says that “sources point to the structure of the virus, in saying the genome mapping specifically shows it was not genetically altered,” and that “initial transmission of the virus was a naturally occurring strain that was being studied there – and then went into the population in Wuhan.”

Perhaps Fox, or their sources, are giving China a pass on the question of engineering.

Meanwhile, US officials are “100 percent confident that China went to great lengths to cover up after the virus was out,” and that the World Health Organization (WHO) was either complicit in the coverup, or looked the other way.

The president hinted at an investigation on Wednesday when he told Fox News’ John Roberts: “More and more we’re hearing the story…we are doing a very thorough examination of this horrible situation.”

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday reiterated that the administration was eyeing the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and accused the Chinese government of stonewalling scientists from finding out what happened. –Fox News

“We know that the first sightings of this occurred within miles of the Wuhan Institute of Virology.  We know that this – the history of the facility, the first BSL-4 lab where there’s high-end virus research being conducted, took place at that site,” said Mike Pompeo on the Hugh Hewitt show. “We know that the Chinese Communist Party, when it began to evaluate what to do inside of Wuhan, considered whether the WIV was, in fact, the place where this came from.”

“And most importantly, we know they’ve not permitted the world’s scientists to go into that laboratory to evaluate what took place there, what’s happening there, what’s happening there even as we speak,” he added.

There has been speculation for months, not just in the U.S., that the virus originated in a Chinese laboratory. A February study on the origins of the virus from the South China University of Technology concluded: “In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.”

Should it turn out that the virus escaped from a Chinese laboratory, the global pushback against the Chinese government could be significant. The virus has infected and killed hundreds of thousands of people and ravaged economies across the globe. Trump, who has frequently taken a hardline towards China even before the crisis, would be expected to lead calls to make Beijing face consequences. –Fox News

We await Fox News‘s Twitter ban.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Gatestone…The EU has failed Europe over the Coronavirus..

a good read..

(Gatestone)

The EU Has Failed Europe Over Coronavirus

Authored by Con Coughlin via The Gatestone Institute,

The deepening divisions among European nations over their response to the coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the inability of the European Union to provide strong and effective leadership in times of crisis.

Faced with arguably the greatest challenge Europe has faced since the end of the Second World War, the EU’s failure to help coordinate the actions of the 27-nation bloc in tackling Covid-19 has once again brought the organisation’s institutional failings into sharp focus.

Not only has the Brussels bureaucracy been unable to provide vital medical assistance to stricken countries in the form of badly-needed protective clothing and key equipment, such as ventilators. The EU has also completely failed in its efforts to provide financial support for those countries, such as Italy and Spain, that have been worst affected by the crisis.

The EU’s inability or unwillingness to respond should raise fresh questions about the EU’s long-term future.

Furthermore, a meeting of EU finance ministers held to discuss setting up a $380 billion coronavirus rescue package failed to reach agreement when wealthier northern European states refused to back measures to help their less wealthy southern partners unless they agreed to punitive loan terms.

This additional failure prompted Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to warn that if the EU proved unable to help member states in their hour of need, it was in danger of collapse.

“If we do not seize the opportunity to put new life into the European project, the risk of failure is real,” Mr Conte said.

The EU’s failure to organise a coordinated response among member states to the pandemic has also been the subject of criticism. The EU’s refusal to set up a special programme for Covid-19 research last week prompted Professor Mauro Ferrari, the President of the European Research Council, to resign in protest. In his resignation letter, Prof Ferrari launched a blistering attack against the EU, citing “a complete absence of coordination of health care politics among member states.”

As a result, rather than heeding the EU’s belated advice for member states to coordinate their response to the outbreak, all the evidence suggests that nations are taking matters into their own hands rather than relying on the EU for guidance.

A letter sent by the European Commission to member states earlier this month appealed for European leaders to coordinate their actions as they sought to ease the strict lockdown measures that have been in place since the coronavirus outbreak. The letter warned that failure to do so would “unavoidably lead to a corresponding increase in new cases.”

Instead, all the evidence suggests that the majority of European governments are ignoring the EU’s advice, and acting unilaterally to tackle the impact of the pandemic on their citizens.

Thus, at a time when countries like Spain, Italy and Austria are taking the first, tentative steps to ease the lockdown, with certain businesses being allowed to reopen, French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that the strict lockdown measures imposed over the whole of France will remain in place for the next four weeks.

The divergence in approach among various member states indicates that European leaders are — as they have been from the outset — acting selfishly in their own national interest rather than for the good of the EU as a whole.

It also means they are in breach of some of the EU’s fundamental principles, such as the single market which requires all member states to conduct business on an equal footing. The fact that several countries are allowing various businesses, such as construction, to return to work, whereas in other nations they have been banned from operating during the lockdown, means that disparities will inevitably develop in the economies of member states, a fact that is likely to increase tensions between European leaders in the months to come.

Brussels now says it wants to present an EU-wide “roadmap” for lifting restrictions next week, which will call for national capitals to co-ordinate their exit.

“At a minimum, member states should notify each other and the [European] Commission in due time before they lift measures and take into account their views,” the document is expected to recommend.

“It is essential that there is a common approach and operating framework.”

The problem for the EU is that, now that so many European countries have already taken matters into their own hands, any attempt by Brussels to impose a unified approach to ending the lockdown will surely be a case of too little, too late.

END
EU
EU car registrations crash the most on record
(zerohedge)

European Car Registrations Crash Most On Record In March 

With lockdowns enforced across much of Europe in March, sheltering at home was on everyone’s agenda, and not purchasing a new vehicle (although one wouldn’t know it by looking at TSLA stock). The latest data from the European Auto Industry Association (ACEA) confirmed this after showing new car registrations plunged 51.8% YoY to 853,077 vehicles for the month, the biggest drop and the lowest number of sales on record.

“With containment or lockdown measures taking hold in most markets from around the middle of the month, the vast majority of European dealerships were closed during the second half of March,” the ACEA said.

Sales across all major EU markets plunged, with Italy hit the hardest by the pandemic – reporting the most significant drop in new car registrations of 85.4%, followed by -72.2% in France, -69.3% in Spain, and -37.2% in Germany.

FCA Group and Groupe PSA saw the largest drop in vehicle sales in the month, with registrations down 74.4% and 66.9%, respectively.

  • VW Group sales drop 43.6% y/y; ytd down 19.4%
  • PSA Group sales drop 66.9% y/y; ytd down 34.3%
  • Renault Group sales drop 63.7% y/y; ytd down 36.1%
  • Ford sales drop 60.9% y/y; ytd down 37.4%
  • FCA Group sales drop 74.4% y/y; ytd down 34.5%
  • BMW Group sales drop 39.7% y/y; ytd down 16.7%
  • Daimler sales drop 40.6% y/y; ytd down 22.9%
  • Hyundai Group sales drop 41.8% y/y; ytd down 18.8%
  • Toyota Group sales drop 36.2% y/y; ytd down 8.2%
  • Nissan sales drop 51.5% y/y; ytd down 25.6%

The decline in car registrations started well before the virus outbreak.

A decline in registrations will likely roll into April as much of the continent remains in lockdown following confirmed virus cases and deaths the highest in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the UK, these countries are the drivers of economic growth, and with a pandemic still underway, an economic recession, if not depression is unfolding, that will continue to impede new car sales through 1H20.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

GLOBE/CHINA/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Wuhan Coronavirus Death Toll Revised 50% Higher, Chicago Remdesivir Trial Revives Hopes For ‘Miracle Drug’: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Wuhan revises citywide coronavirus death toll 50% higher
  • Beijing blames ‘overwhelmed’ health care system for the error
  • Foreign Ministry says new numbers “can stand the test of history”
  • Report on Chicago remdesivir trial stokes hopes for new “miracle drug” to fight the virus
  • Iran holds ‘military parade’ with equipment used to fight the virus
  • FT trend analysis shows deaths in Italy, Spain have slowed, while US and UK see continued acceleration
  • Switzerland’s small-business loan program sees resounding success

*      *      *

Update (0740ET): As we await another day of numbers out of Europe and the US, the FT’s latest analysis of confirmed numbers and deaths across the world found that while Italy and Spain have seen deaths continue to slow, the US and the UK have continued to see fatalities trend upward.

Source: FT

Yesterday, Switzerland announced plans to start reopening its economy in mid-May (though most restaurants and bars won’t be open again until mid-June). The Swiss have also reported a resounding success with a government-backed small business loan program that has doled out more than $16.6 billion (16.1 Swiss francs) to small businesses around the country. That’s far more than the £1.1 billion doled out by the UK’s program (while the US’s ‘PPP’ has purportedly loaned out all of the $350 billion allocated by Congress).

*      *      *

Update (0722ET): With sports and most other forms of group entertainment unavailable for the time being, the world is gasping for viral content. Fortunately, some moments of levity – like this video of nuns playing basketball taken at a convent in Spain – have emerged to take the public’s mind off the horrors that lie just outside their door.

Michael Dolan@mikedolanny

Nuns playing basketball at a monastery in Sevilla, Spain while sheltered in place for the coronavirus. Hoops makes the world go around.

Embedded video

But that’s not all: Friday was Iran’s annual “army day”, an annual holiday that – not unlike memorial day in the US – is typically celebrated with a parade – though in Iran it’s a military parade.

However, this year, since group large numbers of soldiers together didn’t seem like a good idea considering that the coronavirus has nearly brought the Iranian regime to its knees, the military instead decided to show off equipment for tackling the coronavirus, including equipment used to sanitize public places and set up makeshift hospitals, according to the Jerusalem Post. Unfortunately, we couldn’t find any photos.

*      *      *

Shortly after 11pmET Thursday night, a headline came trundling across the wire that caught our eye: Health authorities in Wuhan raised the official death toll from the city’s coronavirus outbreak by 50%, equivalent to 1,290 patients, to a still-too-low-to-be-believed 3,869.

An anonymous city official told China’s Xinhua that the new deaths and newly announced cases (officials confirmed another 325 non-fatal cases, raising the total number of “confirmed” cases to 50,333) were undercounted during the “early stages” of the outbreak, according to the Associated Press.

Echoing NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio’s reasoning for adding thousands of new deaths to the city death toll earlier this week, Chinese officials said the new cases include people who died at home, as well as those who died in a hospital without their deaths being officially added to the toll (during the first weeks after the Wuhan shutdown, Chinese officials refused to include patients who hadn’t officially tested positive in their case numbers, an issue that was supposed to have been fixed by one of the early revisions announced by the Chinese back in February).

The new figures were reportedly discovered after Chinese officials tried to reconcile numbers from their hospital database, with numbers from the city funeral service and its nucleic acid-testing.

The official Xinhua News Agency quoted an unidentified official with Wuhan’s epidemic and prevention and control headquarters as saying that during the early stages of the outbreak, “due to the insufficiency in admission and treatment capability, a few medical institutions failed to connect with the disease prevention and control system in time, while hospitals were overloaded and medics were overwhelmed with patients.

“As a result, belated, missed and mistaken reporting occurred,” the official was quoted as saying.

The new figures were compiled by comparing data from Wuhan’s epidemic prevention and control system, the city funeral service, the municipal hospital authority, and nucleic acid testing to “remove double-counted cases and fill in missed cases,” the official was quoted as saying.

Deaths occurring outside hospitals had not been registered previously and some medical institutions had confirmed cases but reported them late or not at all, the official said.

By adding these 1,290 patients to the rolls, China raised its national death toll to 4,632, from the 3,342 announced by the NHC earlier. After their release, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian insisted that these new numbers “can stand the test of history.”

Why would China even bother with this latest ‘revision’ – it’s at least the 4th time they’ve tweaked the numbers, and the first time in roughly 2 months – of the Wuhan numbers? Well, it just so happens that the official statistics agency also published the first reading of China’s Q1 GDP, which confirmed a massive contraction, as was expected.

Twitter’s Melissa Chen jokingly compared China’s ‘50%’ revision to when a student purposefully marks wrong answers on their homework to cover up the fact that they’ve been cheating.

Melissa Chen@MsMelChen

When you realize that the teacher would be suspicious because you did too good of a job cheating on your homework, so you threw in some errors:https://qz.com/1839925/wuhan-revised-its-coronavirus-death-toll-up-by-50-percent/ 

Wuhan just revised its Covid-19 death toll up by 50%

Amid growing skepticism of China’s coronavirus figures, authorities added 1,290 deaths from confirmed cases to the official tally.

qz.com

But Wuhan is slightly larger than NYC population-wise, and the outbreak in Wuhan was even more vicious than the outbreak in NYC, which has reported more than 10k deaths. So imagine what that must mean for Wuhan, where the hospital system was completely overwhelmed during the early weeks of the outbreak, leaving some elderly patients to drop dead on the street (something that, as far as we know, hasn’t happened in the US).

The other big news overnight – and the reason why Dow futs are up nearly 800 points in the green Friday morning – has actually been percolating in investors’ minds since shortly after yesterday’s close of cash trading. In the early evening on Thursday, a report claiming ‘miraculous’ efficacy for Gilead’s remdesivir during a University of Chicago study, helped revive hopes that a “miracle drug” might be around the corner. The results were first reported last night by STAT News.

Here’s more from that STAT News report, which we also cited last night.

Remdesivir was one of the first medicines identified as having the potential to impact SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, in lab tests. The entire world has been waiting for results from Gilead’s clinical trials, and positive results would likely lead to fast approvals by the Food and Drug Administration and other regulatory agencies. If safe and effective, it could become the first approved treatment against the disease.

The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir.

“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital.

However, a statement from Gilead warned that the drug is still in the trial phase, and these results still need to be confirmed. And as we noted earlier this week, officials in China suspiciously shuttered 2 separate trials – one in Wuhan and one in Beijing – of the global remdesivir study, claiming there weren’t enough severely ill patients to run the trials, which sounds like a not-very-believable ruse to us.

Even Gilead, whose shares are up nearly 20% in premarket trade, warned that the U.Chicago trial is just one of many, and these numbers are simply “anecdotal”.

Finally, the number of confirmed cases surpassed 2.1 million during the early hours of Friday in the US, while the number of confirmed deaths neared 150k.

end

 

Michael Every…

“Let Them Eat Stocks”: Top Market Strategist Says “In 20 Years I Have Never Seen Anything Like This”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

It’s Hard Not to Be ‘Depressed’

Here come the depression-level dataUS jobless claims soared a further 5.2 million in the past week, meaning that around 22 million jobs have now been shed in the past four weeks. That undoes all the jobs created since the end of the Global Financial Crisis, which is seen as unprecedented in the structural economic damage that it wrought. Yet we are still only four weeks in to this: does anyone think the sudden slump in demand from 22 million newly unemployed, let alone the broader impact of ongoing lockdowns, won’t see a further massive initial claims print next week, and the week after, and the one after that, and so on?

I have written about economics and markets for over 20 years and try (and often fail) to detach myself from some of the wilder, more unusual, or more illogical and/or unsustainable movements one sees. However, US equities rallying for a fourth successive week on the back of a fourth successive print showing millions of US citizens losing their jobs is a real splinter in the mind’s eye: maybe if everyone loses their job equities could double?

This all goes far beyond the pre-Covid metric of ‘bad news is good news’ because we already have zero rates and apparently infinite quasi-fiscal Fed liquidity on offer: what more is being priced in by further economic misery? To the increasingly depressed it smacks dangerously of depression alongside a Marie Antoinette-esque “Let them eat stocks” from Wall Street – as does Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stating in a TV interview that a check for $1,200 is bridge finance supposed to last the recipient for 10 weeks: I am sure he has vast experience of living on that kind of breadline.

Yes, US President Trump is now flagging that some parts of the US economy can open up again in four weeks – but that’s another month of massive job losses to then try to recover from, and to eke out on USD1,200Moreover, as we keep repeating, one cannot assume that there is going to be a binary switch back to normal. Voluntary lockdowns, in terms of consumers not going out to many places, are going to linger for a long time – we have evidence of that from China, where things are still not back to normal at all, and from Sweden, where things aren’t locked down and yet where people won’t go to cinemas, etc. Add on top recent evidence that social distancing needs to be MUCH more than two meters OR that masks must be worn inside and outside at all times to ensure that two metres is enough, and normal economies are not on the horizon.

On that front, the headlines today are that China’s GDP collapsed -9.8% q/q and -6.8% y/y in Q1, the inverse of what one would normally expect to see in a series that is carefully pruned and polished before public outings. That was actually better than the -12.0% q/q consensus but oddly worse than the -6.0% y/y consensus – but this is all probably still the market-friendly version of the actual facts in many places.

We also saw industrial production for “back to normal” March at -1.1%, far better than the -6.2% expected, and fixed investment was -16.1% y/y YTD, although up from -24.5%. Yet retail sales, on which hopes for Chinese recovery are based given global demand is absent, were -15.8% y/y, worse than the -10.0% the market was looking for. Lastly, the unemployment rate was DOWN to 5.9% from 6.2%, which is why nobody pays any attention to it at all. Also worth noting was a survey on SME activity released yesterday by the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University. It shows daily revenue is running around half the level it was in 2019, and monthly revenue for March is -60% y/y. That is with an economy that has been opened up – and those are still depression level data.

Even some Fed members are hedging their bets. Bullard notes that while a V-shaped US recovery is possible, so is a “depression”. Yes, he mentioned the D word. Kaplan sees unemployment hitting the high teens (it’s already there, so that’s another great Fed look into the distant future) and is “open minded” about the Fed now including financial aid to non-profits. One could quip that by covering junk bonds the Fed is already bailing out non-profits: that as GOP Senator Crapo (no typo), who heads the powerful Banking Committee, is stressing that transparency over the eligibility for the coming flood of trillions of USD is required.

Meanwhile, Europe is having its own drama. French President Macron has given an interview with the FT in which he argues that fiscal transfers are needed if the EU is to “hold on” through this crisis, underlining that globalisation as we knew it is over, and that tomorrow belongs to populists and Euroskeptics if the EU won’t agree to burden sharing. With opinion so split on the issue of coronabonds, and the nuts and bolts of it so complex, large parts of the EU are going to face ‘depression’ in a least one sense no matter how this binary issue is finally resolved – though if that will be at next week’s virtual summit remains to be seen.

Finally, more international drama. Stand-in UK PM Dominic Raab has decided to go on a “Raab araaand” (apologies to the late Mike Reid) on the foreign policy front, stating “There is no doubt we can’t have business as usual” with China and that “After this crisis, we’ll have to ask the hard questions about how it came about and how it couldn’t have been stopped earlier.“ Anglo-US solidarity? One wonders if the Huawei greenlight still stands when Boris gets back to No. 10.

Likewise, Reuters reported yesterday that the US has blocked the IMF from issuing more SDR to free up lending capacity specifically over objections to USD funding being made without conditions to Iran….and China. Why does China need USD from the IMF? Why doesn’t the US want the IMF to lend them to it? And why is China on the same list as Iran at all? Perhaps this is nothing – but for those who want to see, it looks a lot like another facet of USD/Eurodollar power-play akin to the “He who controls the spice controls the universe!” going on inside the US in terms of who the Fed/Treasury channel cash to.

It really is all very depressing – and so I get why people don’t want to see it.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0838 DOWN .0020 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.76 DOWN 0.173 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2463   DOWN   0.0024  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4078 UP .0037 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 20 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 18.56 POINTS OR 0.66% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 373.55 POINTS OR 1.56%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,41%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 373,55 POINTS OR 1.56%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.56 POINTS OR 0.66%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.41% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 607.06  POINTS OR 3.15%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1685.40

silver:$15.10-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.65% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.25 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 100.12 UP 2 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.96% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.82%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,78 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 96 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.47% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.15% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0884  UP     .0026 or 26 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.52 DOWN .413 OR YEN UP 41  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2501 UP .0014 POUND UP 14  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 13 basis points to 1.4024

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0732    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0797  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.9286 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.60 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.20 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.72 DOWN 30  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 158.53  2.82%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 324.24 POINTS OR 3.15%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 148.85 POINTS 3.42%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 112.40 POINTS or 1.66%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 287.33 POINTS OR 1.71%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 18.12 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 28.31 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    74.05  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.18 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 18 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.37 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  18.29//

 

 

BRENT :  28.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.64..plus 2 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.27..plus 5 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0874 ( UP 16   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.56 DOWN .372 (YEN UP 37 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.76 DOWN 27 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2501// UP 13  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.9324

 

 

the Russian rouble 74.038   UP 0.19 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 19 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4007 UP 31 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.37%

 

The Dow closed UP 704.81 POINTS OR 2.99%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 117.78 POINTS OR 1.38%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  38.15 CLOSED DOWN 1.96

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.135%//libor dropping like a stone

libor-ois: 1.068

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Crude Crashes As Mega-Tech Stocks Soar Amid Record Surge In Deaths & Unemployment

Nasdaq stocks soared on the week (second week in a row) as Small Caps and Trannies disappointed…

Sending tech stocks back to dotcom levels of exuberance relative to domestically-focused smaller cap stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

But bonds were not buying it (even as The Fed tapered again)…

Source: Bloomberg

Black gold was not buying it…

Source: Bloomberg

And volume is severely lagging as stocks soar…

Source: Bloomberg

And The Fed has managed to hide the reality of soaring US virus deaths from American markets…

Source: Bloomberg

And the blindfold is global as economic data disappoints and plunges at a record pace while stocks surge higher…

Source: Bloomberg

And as global earnings expectations collapse, stocks are rising too…

Source: Bloomberg

Here’s why this is happening…

Source: Bloomberg

Our put another way…

Europe was mixed  with only DAX managing gains during the holiday-shortened week…

Source: Bloomberg

But all eyes were on the Italian sovereign spread as it blew out…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks all ended the week higher led by the small-cap, tech-dominated ChiNext index…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US, the big banks were battered (despite gains on Friday)…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq futures plunged back into the red from strong gains overnight… and the last hour saw more complete panic-buying as Small Caps surged back towards their limit-up overnight highs…

Dow futures fought with the 50% retracement line all day…

Sectors affected directly by the virus or lockdowns largely trod water this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course the big story that purportedly sparked the buying panic today was anecdotal news of a small Remdesivir trial’s positive results…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all lower on the week with the long-end outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields spiked late on Friday as The Fed tapered its QE program again…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar gained on the week, but mainly thanks to the surge on Wednesday…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos trod water today to end the week mixed with most altcoins flat, Ethereum best and Bitcoin up just 2%…

Source: Bloomberg

oil prices collapsed like a chocolate fireguard this week as technicals into the contract roll, plunging demand and soaring stocks did not help…The May contract crashed to a $17 handle intraday (dramatically lower than the $25 handle in the June contract)

Copper gained as PMs limped lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold spot and futures prices were marginally lower on the week as the premium compressed notably…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, instead of charts, we offer views from two heavyweights:

DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach…

What people in financial media don’t seem to understand is that we are never going back to the January 2020 “You blow dry my hair and I’ll blow dry your hair” economy. Saving money and having a net economically productive skill will be the new cool.

And Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd:

“Investors who are sitting out there right now who rebalanced a few weeks ago and moved from fixed income to equities should probably think about rebalancing again,” he said Friday on a panel.

“The market at this level based upon where earnings are doesn’t represent any kind of intrinsic value,” Minerd said.

“It is being entirely propped up by liquidity.”

“S&P could be 1,500, 1,600, 1,200.”

Ok, ok… one chart… the S&P 500 Fwd P/E is now at 19.47x… its highest since Feb 2002 and well above the peak in Feb 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

 

ENE

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Gilead Pours Cold Water On Report That Sent Market Soaring: “Anecdotal Reports With No Statistical Power”

After a one-two punch of disappointing news for Gilead out of China, where as we reported yesterday a trial of remdesivir in Covid-19 patients with mild or moderate symptoms was suspended as no eligible patients could be recruited according to an update on ClinicalTrials.gov, which in turn followed a trial of the drug in severely ill Covid-19 patients which was also terminated for similar reasons, it felt like one or more hedge funds would seek to manipulate public sentiment – and the market – and get out of an underwater position.

They did just that at 430pm today when the low profile Statnews published a report by Adam Feuerstein, best known for doing the bidding of one or more hedge fund clients, according to which a “Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead Sciences’ antiviral medicine remdesivir in a closely watched clinical trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week, STAT has learned.”

“Learned” from whom? A hedge fund or two who were long GILD and needed a fake news catalyst to get out? Because last time we checked, double blind, secret drug trials are, er… secret.

The report went on: “patients using Gilead’s remdesivir were “seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms”, which is odd considering the two previous incomplete/failed trials in China. According to the report, “almost all patients were discharged in under than a week, and only two patients died.”

Which actually is very bad news because as the FT reported later – this time using facts not sources – “none of the patients on the Chicago trial had been on invasive ventilation“, so is it possible that the drug killed them? Maybe Feuerstein can ask his hedge fund source.

In any case, at the time the data hit Bloomberg around 4:21pm, it barely registered among the institutional audience, or even the algos, as most serious players were well aware of Feuerstein’s “tactical” reputation.

It wasn’t until the news was reported by CNBC about 30 minutes later – and hit the retail investing audience – that GILD stock soared 16 and the entire market took off as if someone had suddenly discovered not only a cure but also a vaccine for coronavirus.

Alas, neither happened, and as it has done on numerous occasions previously, about three hours after the news broke conveniently providing one or more hedge funds ample opportunity to offload their position in the thin after hours market, Gilead issued a statement which suggested that STAT was pumping the stock based on nothing more than “anecdotal reports” to wit:

“We understand the urgent need for a Covid-19 treatment and the resulting interest in data on our investigational antiviral drug remdesivir. The totality of the data need to be analysed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial.”

Anecdotal reports, while encouraging, do not provide the statistical power necessary to determine the safety and efficacy profile of remdesivir as a treatment for Covid-19. We expect the data from our Phase 3 study in patients with severe Covid-19 infection to be available at the end of this month, and additional data from other studies to become available in May.”

And so, one more attempt to ramp the market using fake news of an imminent drug has failed, with some observing that a Phase 1 drug trial is now the functional equivalent of a Phase 1 trade deal – both meaningless on their own, but with the power to send stocks surging when used tactically by unknown players.

Experts had high hopes for remdesivir because it had shown it was effective in stopping the Ebola virus replicating. Ebola shares a similar mechanism of replication with Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes the Covid-19 disease. However, there has been no definitive statistic evidence yet that that is the case.

As a result, the drug has not been approved to treat any disease and scientists are waiting for the results of large trials with control arms for proof that it works and that the benefits outweigh any risks of side-effects. Umer Raffat, a biotech analyst at Evercore, said that he was “cautiously optimistic” about remdesivir but warned it was not a “silver bullet”.

He said it was important to note that none of the patients on the Chicago trial had been on invasive ventilation, which tends to be an indication of a more serious condition and worse outcomes. In short, the observed response could have been nothing more than a placebo effect.

And while stocks soared to new one month highs on the initial overhyped news of a trial that has not yet even concluded amid the latest powerful short squeeze, the rally has since reversed even if the drop has a long way to go before it fills the gap. Meanwhile, stocks are now the most overvalued ever, ever on the basis of forward multiples.

In short, we just observed another marketwide pump and dump, in which whales used gullible, CNBC-watching Joe Sixpack retail investors for “distribution”

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Nasdaq Tumbles Into Red As Markets Realize “There Is No Reopening Plan”

Update (1215ET): While Small Caps remain up over 3.5%, Nasdaq has dropped into the red on the day…

*  *  *

US equity market have been roaring higher (especially so overnight) as hope trumped reality once again.

But bonds were not buying it…

And neither was oil…

Maybe this is why.

As Nomura’s Charlie McElliigott summed up so perfectly this morning:

The “TL;DR version” of the U.S. reopening guidelines is simple: There is no “plan” as:

1) there are no deadlines;

2) there are no guidelines or protocols to businesses on protective gear / temperature checks / testing / sanitizing; and

3) the plan offers little to no federal assistance, with states being asked to “independently” secure PPE and medical equipment for their hospitals.

And finally, it seems like Nasdaq has woken up to the reality of the Gilead drug bullshit and Nasdaq futures are red on the day…

It’s a long way to catch down to reality…

end

ii)Market data/USA

US “Leading” Economic Indicators Crash By Most In Over 60 Years

The US Conference Board’s leading economic index crashed 6.7% in March – the biggest monthly drop since the series began in 1959…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood:

  • The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was interest rate spread at 0.03
  • The biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -5.53
  • LEI coincident index fell 0.9% in March after rising 0.3% in prior month
  • LEI lagging index rose 1.2% in March after rising 0.3% in Feb.

The index (which fell 0.2% in February after rising 0.4% in January) fell to its lowest since July 2017…

And on a year-over-year basis, LEI crashed 6.6% – the biggest annual drop since September 2009…

We are sure this will all be dismissed as “transitory”… despite its apparent “leading” nature.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This investment banker sees trouble ahead as they slash jobs and prepare to cut more as the economy enters a huge downtur

(zerohedge)_

Cantor Fitzgerald Slashes Jobs, Prepares To Cut More Amid Economic Downturn

Even before the virus pandemic crashed the global economy into recession, if not depression, for the second quarter, the investment bank industry was already on shaky ground.

As we’ve noted over the last year, investment banks, such as BarclaysJPMorganHSBCDeutsche Bank, and many others, have been slashing jobs and shrinking operations amid a global slowdown.

Now Cantor Fitzgerald has joined the party by slashing jobs to reduce costs and shore up operations.

Sources told Bloomberg that Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, has already slashed jobs across capital markets and commercial real estate units, with hundreds of more cuts expected through April.

“We have made prudent headcount and cost reductions to position the firm for the uncertain macroeconomic conditions expected for the remainder of the year,” the investment bank said in a statement.

People familiar with the cuts said Lutnick is taking precautionary measures as he worries about an economic downturn triggered by COVID-19 could extend through the year.

Lutnick appears to be breaking ranks from other major investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, who have all promised jobs will not be axed this spring. But with an economic depression unfolding and 22 million Americans jobless in four weeks, Lutnick is taking no chances and is tightening up operations as economic uncertainty plagues the 2020 outlook.

Sources said the cuts represent about 5% of Cantor’s workforce, with more reductions in some units than others. In total, the investment bank employs 12,000 people around the world.

Even with the Federal Reserve unleashing record amounts of stimulus, bailouts, and now buying ETFs, capital markets will likely remain damaged throughout the year – leading to further job losses for the investment bank community.

END

Follow his lead…we have overcapacity and oversupply everywhere: massive deflation is dead ahead and then this will be followed by a massive hyperinflation

(Smith

Overcapacity / Oversupply Everywhere: Massive Deflation Dead Ahead

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The price of a great many assets will crash, out of proportion to the decline in demand.

Oil is the poster child of the forces driving massive deflation: overcapacity / oversupply and a collapse in demand. Overcapacity / oversupply and a collapse in demand are not limited to the crude oil market; rather, they are the dominant realities in the global economy.

Yes, there are shortages in a few high-demand areas such as PPE (personal protective equipment), but across the entire spectrum of global supply and demand, there is nothing but a vast sea of overcapacity / oversupply and a systemic decline in demand as far as the eye can see.

Here’s a partial list of commodities that are in Overcapacity / oversupply:

1. Overvalued assets

2. Overpriced income streams (as income craters, so will the asset generating the income)

3. Labor: low-skill everywhere, high-skill in sectors experiencing systemic collapse in demand

4. AirBnB and other vacation rental properties

5. Overpriced flats, condos and houses

6. Overpriced rental apartments

7. Overpriced commercial office space

8. Overpriced retail space

9. Overpriced used vehicles

10. Overpriced collectibles

I think you get the idea.

Should China restart its export factories, then almost everything being manufactured will immediately be in oversupply, as the global export sector was plagued with mass overcapacity long before the Covid-19 pandemic crushed demand.

Incomes will crater as revenues and profits crash, small businesses close their doors, never to re-open, local governments tighten spending, and whatever competition still exists will relentlessly push the price of labor, goods and services lower.

Globalization has generated hyper-specialization in local and regional economies, stripping them of resilience. Fully exposed to the demand flows of a globalized class of consumers with surplus discretionary income, regions specialized in tourism, manufacturing, commodity mining, etc.

All these regions are now facing a structural collapse of global demand, and they have no diversified local economy to cushion the blow to jobs, incomes, profits and tax revenues.

Thousands of small business that could barely squeak through a 20% decline in revenues are facing a 50% or more decline as far as the eye can see. With costs such as rent, labor, fees, taxes and healthcare at nosebleed levels, an enormously consequential number of small businesses globally cannot survive more than a modest, brief drop in revenues, as their costs remain high even as their sales plummet: costs are sticky, profits slide quickly to zero and beyond.

What’s scarce:

1. low-risk, high-yield assets

2. Low-cost hedges against the collapse of asset valuations

3. Investment income streams that survive the collapse of demand and asset valuations

Here is a weekly chart of crude oil (WTIC). Note the weakening of price as the global economy slowed in 2018-2019, the modest rise as the Federal Reserve began “not QE” printing of currency in September 2019, and the complete collapse as oil producers jockeyed for control via crushing price wars/over-production and global demand plummeted.

This is the future of vast swaths of the global economy: labor, commodities, assets, goods and services, and the tax revenues that are skimmed from the private sector, will all crash as supply far exceeds demand.

The price of a great many assets will crash, out of proportion to the decline in demand. Only the global top 10% can afford to buy pricey vacation homes, for example, and as the top 10% own 90% of the assets that are melting away like ice cubes in Death Valley, when their ability and willingness to buy assets they can no longer afford vanishes, the market price of those assets can fall 90% or even to zero.

You’ll know this moment has arrived when you see once-expensive sailboats and pleasure craft abandoned and drifting, as the owners can no longer afford the dock fees and can’t sell the craft. To quote Jackson Browne: Don’t think it won’t happen just because it hasn’t happened yet.

*  *  *

end
Very worrisome…
(zerohedge)

Navy Reports Alarming ‘Stealth Transmission’ Rate: 60% Of Infected Carrier Crew Symptom-Free

In an extremely worrisome development signaling the coronavirus peak in the United States could last longer than expected, the US Navy has found that most COVID-19 cases aboard the virus-stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt are among sailors who are asymptomatic.

“Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say,” Reuters reports.

This suggests the virus could be spreading more frequently by stealth mode in the broader population, with many more people than is known walking around walking around with the disease unawares.

 

Nuclear aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, via AP/VOA

At least 655 Roosevelt sailors have now tested positive, including one death and multiple hospitalizations, out of a total crew of a about 4,800. It’s startling that the Navy has found that out of over 600 COVID-19 infected sailors, the majority have displayed no symptoms. Testing is about 95% complete on the entire crew since the ship was diverted to Guam last month amid a spiraling crisis on board.

“With regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” Rear Admiral Bruce Gillingham, surgeon general of the Navy, told reporters.

The Navy specified that 60% of the Roosevelt’s positive cases “so far have not shown symptoms”. Crucially, Reuters points out that the “figure is higher than the 25% to 50% range offered on April 5 by Dr. Anthony Fauci”.

This is likely due the fact that enlisted military ranks tend to be already very healthy individuals in their 20’s and early 30’s. The carrier crew also provides a key active case study given the isolation of nearly 5,000 people apart from broader society, and the young, fit demographic.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper told NBC’s Today on Thursday that the conclusions regarding asymptomatic spread aboard the ship conclusions are “disconcerting”. Esper said, “It has revealed a new dynamic of this virus: that it can be carried by normal, healthy people who have no idea whatsoever that they are carrying it,” Esper said.

While this is not a new revelation, the case of the Roosevelt carrier and its crew provides shocking and clear confirmation that this reality is likely playing out on a much broader scale than previously thought.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Small business loan program runs out of money, no longer accepting applications

The program ran out of cash Thursday morning

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/small-business-loan-program-runs-out-of-money-not-accepting-applications

Kevin McCarthy @GOPLeader: Exactly a week ago today, @SenateMajLdr introduced a one-page bill to fund paychecks for small business employees. Democrats blocked it. As of this morning, the program is out of money.  This is on you, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi.

Leader McConnell @senatemajldr: One week ago, I warned that the Paycheck Protection Program was running out of money and tried to a pass clean funding bill. Senate Democrats blocked it. Here we are, a week later, with no progress. This morning, the PPP ran out of money & shut down, just as we’d warned.

NY Post Editorial Board: Democrats need to stop holding small-business help hostage

Dems shouldn’t block vital aid that they support just because they want other things, too…

https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/democrats-need-to-stop-holding-small-business-help-hostage/

Democrat Senator Tina Smith @SenTinaSmith [breaks ranks with Pelosi/Schumer]: Minnesota small businesses need relief now. I fought hard for this program and am now pressing for additional funds, faster delivery and implementation improvements to help more Minnesotans get assistance ASAP.

The harsh reality for citizens and politicians is that the $2+ trillion bailout scheme is NOT a substitute for a functioning economy.  “Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.” – Dependency & Econ 101 PS – Mnuchin said, “The entire package provides economic relief overall for about ten weeks.”  He can’t mean $1200 is enough money for ten weeks!

People are slamming Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for appearing to suggest the $1,200 coronavirus stimulus payments could last people 10 weeks

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mnuchin-criticized-seemingly-suggesting-stimulus-checks-could-last-10-weeks-2020-4-1029099759

CBS: President Trump accuses New York City of inflating its coronavirus death toll

After a revised count added more than 3,700 fatalities to the city’s tally… The new toll included 3,778 people who were never tested or hospitalized for the virus, but whose death appeared to be due to COVID-19 symptoms… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-trump-accuses-new-york-city-of-inflating-its-coronavirus-death-toll/

NYC jail population dips to lowest since 1946 after coronavirus releases   https://trib.al/rcPVORo

Beijing says the WHO has found no evidence coronavirus was man-made as it fends off accusations it was created in a Chinese lab – Fox News reported on Wednesday that the virus originated in a Wuhan laboratory… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8226381/Beijing-says-no-evidence-coronavirus-man-fends-accusations-lab.html

Harvard, Yale under U.S. Investigation over [Failure to report] Foreign Funding

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12/harvard-yale-under-u-s-investigation-over-foreign-funding

OAN’s @jennfranconews: President Trump told governors in a conference call that he wants to reopen some shuttered parts of the country by May 1.  He’s leaving it up to states to act based on new guidance –telling governors, “You’re going to call your own shots.”

@CBSNews: Trump says White House coronavirus experts agree the U.S. can start moving into a new phase of reopening the country: “A national shutdown is not a sustainable, long-term solution.”

Some states will be able to open up sooner than others,” Trump said. “Some states are not in the kind of trouble others are in. Now that we have passed the peak of new cases, we’re starting our life again. We’re starting rejuvenation of our economy again in a very safe and structured responsible fashion.”

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/trump-unveils-coronavirus-opening-up-america-again-plan

Guidelines – Opening Up American Again (18 page document)

https://www.scribd.com/document/456752508/Guidelines#from_embed

Today is April option expiration.  Normally stocks rally early on expiry and then quiet down.  The last hour on expiry is always a crapshoot.

 

Gilead reports compassionate use data of remdesivir in Covid-19    13 APRIL 2020

Gilead Sciences has reported positive data from analysis of an international cohort of patients treated with remdesivir as a potential treatment for Covid-19. The analysis reviewed 53 patients who were hospitalised with severe complications related to the novel coronavirus infection in the US, Europe, Canada and Japan…  https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/gilead-data-remdesivir-covid-19/

@SaraCarterDC: [Sens.] Grassley And Johnson Request FBI Director Wray Turn Over All FBI Records On Crossfire Hurricane.  Johnson and Grassley said they were “deeply troubled by the Crossfire Hurricane team’s awareness of and apparent indifference to Russian disinformation, as well as by the grossly inaccurate statements by the FBI official in charge of the investigation and its supervisory intelligence analyst.  What other parts of the FBI’s investigation were infected by Russian disinformation? …The FBI knew that Russian intelligence was targeting Christopher Steele’s company, that Steele relied on sources affiliated with Russian intelligence, and at least two of Steele’s reports were described as the product of a Russian disinformation campaign. Because these facts show the intention, means, and ability to plant Russian disinformation in Steele’s reporting, they suggest that the prevalence of such disinformation in the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation may have been widespread.” https://saraacarter.com/grassley-and-johnson-request-fbi-director-wray-turn-over-all-fbi-records-on-crossfire-hurricane/

@CBS_Herridge: FISA declassified footnote 350 first obtained @CBSNews shows multiple warnings to FBI: US intel report Jan 2017 assessing Michael Cohen dossier material “part of a Russian disinformation campaign” Similar intel report Feb 2017 undercut Trump claims, red flag Russian intel

@ChuckRossDC: It’s almost laughable, but WaPo, CNN, NBC, ABC, Daily Beast, Politico, and BuzzFeed(!) have not written any stories about the new Steele dossier revelations. NYT hasn’t written a fresh story, though they’ve reported on dossier disinfo in the past. So here: FISA Bombshell: Russian Intelligence Knew Christopher Steele Was Investigating Trump During 2016 Campaign

https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/15/steele-dossier-russian-disinformation-trump/

For over three years, the MSM promulgated Russian disinformation and is now disseminating China propaganda.  There is a singular reason for these acts.

The king who is situated anywhere immediately on the circumference of the conqueror’s territory is termed the enemy.  The king who is likewise situated close to the enemy, but separated from the conqueror only by the enemy, is termed the friend (of the conqueror).”— Kautilya, 4th Century BC

https://www.quora.com/Who-originally-said-“The-enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend

‘Greatest fear’: Chicago hides names [“of hundreds”] of released prisoners from police

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/12/chicago-hides-names-cook-county-prisoners-released/

The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.” – Albert Einstein

@SharylAttkisson: If you follow the info, you will find the Facebook fake fact-checker on the China Wuhan lab is a scientist who works/worked at China’s Wuhan lab the past two years and says it is impossible that they would be sloppy because they are very careful!  https://twitter.com/ProudMamaBear17/status/1250596159615373314

Joe Biden’s virtual campaigning has been a virtual disaster almost daily.  We didn’t think there was any point in rehashing the problem.  It’s been so bad, even the NYT admits Biden’s briefings are troubling.

Biden Is Losing the Internet. Does That Matter?

The coronavirus has forced the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee into an all-digital campaign, and he’s struggling to break through.  Joe Biden is very famous, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at his YouTube channel.  Mr. Biden has just 32,000 subscribers on the influential video platform, a pittance compared with some of his rivals in the Democratic primary race and roughly 300,000 fewer than President Trump. The videos that Mr. Biden posts — these days, mostly repurposed campaign ads and TV-style interviews filmed from the makeshift studio in his basement — rarely crack 10,000 views. And the virtual crickets that greet many of his appearances have become a source of worry for some Democrats, who see his sluggish performance online as a bad omen for his electoral chances in November…  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/technology/joe-biden-internet.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: