APRIL 16A//GOLD CLOSES DOWN $4.50 TO $1713.40//SILVER CLOSES UP 5 CENTS TO $15.40//COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN APRIL: OVER 94 TONNES//FOX NEWS REPORTS ON THE ORIGIN OF THE CONRONAVIRUS BEING THE WUHAN LAB//CHINA RETALIATES BY HOLDING UP MEDICAL SHIPMENTS AS THEY DO NOT LIKE THE RHETORIC COMING FROM THE USA// CORONAVIRUS UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE//IN USA 5.2 MILLION MORE GO ON UNEMPLOYMENT//POOR HOUSING STARTS//POOR PHILLY MFG INDEX//SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD:$1713.40  DOWN $4.50   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$15.40//UP 5 CENTS  London spot price

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1719.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $15.47//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $1718.50

MAY COMEX GOLD:  1725.20 1:30 PM

JUNE GOLD:  $1735.10  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $21.10

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER APRIL COMEX CLOSE: 15.42/

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $15.60-…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY:  20 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  5/145

issued 10

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,727.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/15/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 04/17/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
132 C SG AMERICAS 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 130
661 C JP MORGAN 10 5
686 C INTL FCSTONE 3
690 C ABN AMRO 115 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 1
905 C ADM 13
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 145 145
MONTH TO DATE: 29,555

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 145 NOTICE(S) FOR 14,500 OZ (0.4510 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  29,555 NOTICES FOR 2,955,500 OZ  (91.928 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  nil  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 806 for 4,025,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $7016 UP  395  

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $7011 UP $388

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.40: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

 

WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES (PAPER TONNES/NOT REAL STUFF)

 

GLD: 1,021.69 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP  5 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

NO DEPOSIT//NO WITHDRAWALS  THUS NO CHANGE

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 415.437  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 3126 CONTRACTS FROM 143,477 DOWN TO 140,351 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR HUGE 45 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO SOME  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A CONSIDERABLE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ALONG WITH A ZERO GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING. WE HAD A SMALL NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1551 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 1575 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1575 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1575 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1575 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.875 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 45 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.145  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 45 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL NET LOSS OF 1551 CONTRACTS OR 7.755 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MAY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

11,807 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 11,807 CONTRACTS) OR 59.035 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1181 CONTRACTS OR 5.684 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 59.035 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.41% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          952.53 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR                   59.035 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3126, WITH THE HUGE $0.45 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /WEDNESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1575 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A FAIR SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  904 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 45 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1575 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 3126 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 45 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.35 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.7% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: NOTICE(S) FOR   nil OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.145 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1906 CONTRACTS TO 491,871AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR VERY STRONG COMEX LOSS IN PRICE  OF $19.10 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD NO ISSUANCE OF OUR NEW 4 GC CONTRACT

 

WE GAINED A GOOD 4747 CONTRACTS  (14.76 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2841 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 2841.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2841.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 491,871. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4747 CONTRACTS: 1906 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEXAND 2841 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4747 CONTRACTS OR 14.76 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF $19.10 IN GOLD TRADING.…..

AND WITH THAT HUGE LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 14.76 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (FELL $19.10). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC ISSUANCE:  ZERO

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD  A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2841) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR GAIN IN COMEX OI  (1906 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4747 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A MONSTROUS INCREASE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT HUGE LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//WEDNESDAY

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 51,690 CONTRACTS OR 5,169,000 oz OR 160.77 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5169 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 160.77 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 160.77/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2483.67  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

 

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               160.77  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3126 CONTRACTS FROM 143,477 DOWN TO 140,351 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1575 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 1575; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1575 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE STRONG COMEX OI LOSS  OF 3126 CONTRACTS TO THE 1575 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS OF 1551 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  7.775 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ//APRIL 4.145 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 45 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1575 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.76 POINTS OR 0.31%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 138.89 POINTS OR 0.58%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 259.89 POINTS OR 1.33%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0730 /Oil DOWN TO 20.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and 28.64 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0730 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0784 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 1906 CONTRACTS TO 491,871 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS FAIR COMEX OI GAIN WAS SET DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $19.10 IN GOLD PRICING //WEDNESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (2841 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH THAT HUGE STANDING  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 5076 CONTRACTS.

WE AGAIN HAD ZERO 4- GC CONTRACT ISSUANCE

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2841 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 2841 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2841 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  4747 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2841 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED 1906 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL BY A STRONG $19.10). THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 14.76 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4747 CONTRACTS OR 474700 OZ OR 14.76 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  491,871 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.18 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1529 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1529/2200 OR 69.53% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 195,920 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY201,259 contracts//

APRIL 16

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

93,430.806

OZ

INCL.

BRINKS

1200 KILOBARS

HSBC

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
145 notice(s)
 14,500 OZ
(0.4510 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
762 contracts
(76,200 oz)
2.370 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
29,555 notices
2,955,500 OZ
91.928 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

i ) We had 0 deposits into the dealer

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Brinks:  38,581.200 oz 1200 KILOBARS

ii) Into HSBC:  54,849.606 OZ

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 94,430.806   oz

INCLUDES 1200 KIL0BARS

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawals; NIL   oz

We had 2  kilo transactions

 

We had zero  4 KC bar transaction

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 2

customer to the dealer

i) Out of Brinks:  16,001.600 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this lands into the dealer account

ii) Out of Loomis:  12,827.85 oz  (399 kilobars) and this was adjusted out of the customer account and this lands into the dealer account

 

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 907 contracts for a LOSS of ONLY  72 contacts. We had 552 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A VERY STRONG 480  contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 48,000 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and they also negated a fiat bonus

 

 

May saw its ANOTHER GAIN of 219 contracts to stand at  5199.

June saw a  GAIN OF 93 contracts  UP to 348,175

 

 

We had 145 notices filed today for 14,500 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 10 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 145 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 5 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (29,555) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (907 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (145 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,031,700 OZ OR 94.298 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (29,555)x 100 oz + (907 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today -(145) x 100 oz which equals 3,031,700 oz standing OR 94.298 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

THIS GREATLY SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42. TONES OF GOLD STANDING IN ANY MONTH

We gained 480 contracts OR an additional 48,000 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the this side of the pond, first before travelling to London..

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

322,144.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.02 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  540,194.208  OZ OR 16.824  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 126.329 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  4,602,409.127 oz or 143.154  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  540,904.208 oz or 16.824 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 4,061,504.9  (126.329 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  4,061,504.9 (126.329 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  13,761,120.442 oz (428.02 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   18,363,529.569 oz 571.18 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   148.256 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  422.924 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

 

April 16/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3126 CONTRACTS FROM 143,477 DOWN TO 140,351 (AND MOVING FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR STRONG OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE 45 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/WEDNESDAY.  THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A CONSIDERABLE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND SOME LONG LIQUIDATION OCCURRING WITH OUR LARGE SILVER LOSS IN PRICE. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 23 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH WE LOST 5 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 5 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR 0 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 3755  DOWN TO 46,262.

JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 19 CONTRACTS RISING TO 70.

 

 

We, today, had  0 notice(s) FILED  for NIL, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

APRIL 16/2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1184,593.646 oz
BRINKS
CNT
DELAWARE

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
23 contracts
 115,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  806 contracts

4,025,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into everybody else; 0

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.170 million

total customer deposits today: 607,477.800   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of CNT:  632,112.620 oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 530,590.140  oz
iii) Out of Delaware: 21,890.886 oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  1,184,593.646   oz

We had 0 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.788 million

total dealer + customer silver:  317.926 million oz

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 806 x 5,000 oz = 4,025,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.(23) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 806 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (23)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.equals 4,145,000 oz.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT  THE COMEX.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 49,454 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY:  65,731 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 65731 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 329 million  OZ  46.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.17% ((APRIL 16/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.15% to NAV:   (APRIL 14/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.17%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.77 TRADING 15.73///DISCOUNT 0.26

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES/12TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

APRIL 16/2020/  1021.69 tonnes*

IN LAST 800 TRADING DAYS:   +75.35 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 700 TRADING DAYS;+250.33  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

 

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

 

 

APRIL 16.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

415.437 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 3.83/ and libor 6 month duration 1.15

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 2.68

ONLY GOLD VAPOUR EXISTS

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.20%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.01

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.19

GOLD NON EXISTENT

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Strange:  Bloomberg is starting to admit that only gold is real and all other markets are simply illusions

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Bloomberg starts to admit that only gold is real and markets are illusions

 Section: 

12:34p ET Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

A little surprisingly for Bloomberg News, John Authers notes today that the gold price shows that stock market gains since 1971 are an inflationary illusion. His analysis is headlined “Gold Still Shines 50 Years After Nixon. Will Netflix?” and it’s posted here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-15/gold-still-shines-…

Also a little surprisingly, the news service acknowledges today that the Federal Reserve has commandeered markets comprehensively and that fund managers now want mainly to buy what the Fed itself is buying. This report is headlined “BlackRock Leads Investors Worldwide With ‘Follow the Fed’ Mantra”:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/blackrock-leads-inves…

Meanwhile GATA continues to be disparaged as “conspiracy theorists” for documenting how the gold market long has been manipulated by government as well. If government isn’t manipulating the gold market today, it’s the only market not being so manipulated.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

USA Mint halts all gold output just as demand was surging

see article below

(Bloomberg/Richter/GATA)

U.S. Mint halts gold coin output just as demand is surging

 Section: 

By Joseph Richter and Yvonne Yue Li
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, April 15, 2020

The clamor for retail investors to get hold of precious-metals coins is about to get more urgent.

The U.S. Mint said today it is temporally halting production at its West Point facility in New York because of the risk to employees from the coronavirus. The site makes gold, silver, platinum, and palladium coins, which are sold through a network of distributors.

… 

The shutdown comes as convulsive swings in financial markets spur a surge in demand among retail investors for precious metals as haven assets. Last month the Mint said it sold out of American Eagle silver coins, while the gold coins it offers were snapped up in March at the fastest pace in over three years. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/u-s-mint-halts-coin-o…

END

Kim comments that bullion banks are hemorrhaging silver at the comex due to the high amount of deliveries this year.

If they thinks that silver is high, he should take a look at gold.

(courtesy..Kim//GATA)

John Kim: Bullion banks hemorrhaging silver on Comex

 Section: 

10:45p ET Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial analyst John Kim reports today that in the first nine days of April bullion banks have been called on to deliver a vastly greater than usual amount of silver against futures contracts sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Kim writes: “A few consecutive months at this pace will likely place extreme stress on the ability of Comex to back their silver futures trading with real physical silver, especially since two of the leading silver producers, Ecuador and Peru, ordered nationwide suspensions of all silver production recently in response to the coronavirus pandemic.”

Kim’s analysis is headlined “The Latest CME Stops and Issues Report Reveals that Bankers are Hemorrhaging Physical Silver to Start April” and it’s posted at his internet site here:

https://maalamalama.com/wordpress/cme-stops-and-issues-report-shows-bank…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ronan Manly: I expected this!! Most eligible vaulted gold has nothing to do with the Comex.  I guess our famous “kilo bars” has something to do with this!!

(Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: Comex bombshell — most eligible vaulted gold has nothing to do with Comex

 Section: 

9:50a ET Thursday, April 16, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

While CME Group, operator of the New York Commodities Exchange, and the London Bullion Market Association have been proclaiming in recent days that gold supplies are ample, Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly discloses today that CME Group last week told a completely different story to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Manly cites a CME Group filing with the commission estimating that half or more of the “eligible” gold reported in Comex-approved vaults may have been placed there without any intent to connect it with futures trading — that it may be vaulted simply as long-term investment.

… 

Manly writes: “The importance of this CME admission cannot be overstated. What the Comex has now revealed to the CFTC is that there is far less physical gold available in the New York vaults that can be used for gold futures contract deliveries, because the CME, in its own estimate revision, has just slashed the largest deliverable supply category by half.”

Manly’s report is headlined “Comex Bombshell — Most Eligible Vaulted Gold Has Nothing to Do with Comex” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/comex-bombshell-most-eligi…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Please watch: Nassim Taleb..

 

end

iii) Other physical stories:

(courtesy Bloomberg//comments from Chris Powell above)

US Mint Halts All Production Over Virus Fears As Gold & Silver Coin Demand Nears Record Highs

Just as the premium between physical and paper precious metals prices was starting to fade a little, the US Mint has decided to temporally halt all production at its West Point facility in New York because of the risk to employees from COVID-19.

The timing of the decision to halt supply could not come at a worse time with demand for both gold and silver coins soaring near record highs…

And demand for physical gold – to fulfill/back futures – is soaring…

Bloomberg reports that the Mint had previously redirected some silver bullion production to its Philadelphia facility, Michael White, a spokesman, said in an email.

“My commitment to the health and safety of the Mint workforce is unwavering and continues to be my highest priority”, said Mint Director David J. Ryder.

“These are challenging and unprecedented times, and decisions on Mint operations are made with the best interests of Mint employees first and foremost.”

During the temporary suspension of operations at the West Point facility, it will continue to make American Eagle and America the Beautiful silver bullion coins available to its network of authorized purchasers.

American Eagle and American Buffalo gold coins will not be available, White said.

“The Mint will resume production once it is deemed prudent to do so,” it said in the statement.

This will dramatically exacerbate the physical market stress as, according to the latest sale data, the Mint has sold 56,500 one-ounce American Eagle Gold Bullion coins in the first two weeks of April. Sales for the month are up 465% compared to all of April 2019.

As Everett Millman, a precious-metals specialist at Gainesville Coins in Florida, warns,

“The timing is awful, it’s going to exacerbate the supply shortage” in the coin market when demand is soaring.

Premiums for gold coins are at 5%-10% over spot gold, compared with less than 1% in normal circumstances, Millman said.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0730/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0784   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 8.76 POINTS OR 0.31%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 138.89 POINTS OR 0.58%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 259.89 POINTS OR 1.33%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.94/Euro FALLS TO 1.0879

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.66/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 20.09 and Brent: 28.64

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.46%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.79% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.80%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.25: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.04

3k Gold at $1736.90 silver at: 15.55   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 76/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.09

3m oil into the 20 dollar handle for WTI and 28 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.66 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9657 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0515 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.46%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.60% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.23%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.9294.. THIS WILL BREAK THEIR BANKING SYSTEM!

Futures Rebound Ahead Of 6 Million More In Jobless Claims

Europe rebounded from yesterday’s slump, reversing earlier weakness in Asia, pushing global stock markets higher on Thursday as tentative moves to reopen parts of the some of its larger coronavirus-hit economies offset some truly stinking global economic numbers. U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday, with investors weighing the prospects of the economy re-opening against worsening macroeconomic data, dour first-quarter earnings reports and a 4th consecutive jobless claims report that will print in the millions. Oil rebounded from yesterday’s plunge, while Treasury yields dropped and greenback continued its surge from a day earlier.

On Thursday, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, reported a drop in quarterly profit as investors pulled money out of its marquee funds and preferred cash management services. But that’s ok, now that the fund is frontrunning the Fed – and getting paid for it – earnings should rebound promptly with the blessing for Jerome Powell. Medical equipment maker Abbott Laboratories is scheduled to report quarterly results later in the day, while Morgan Stanley reported Q1 earnings that missed on the top and bottom line.

On Wednesday the S&P 500 sank from a four-week high on Wednesday as the big U.S. banks braced for a wave of potential loan defaults as the coronavirus crushed business activity, while economic data was catastrophic with American retail sales and factory output posting historic declines in March, and surveys in April looked even worse. Manufacturing in New York state and sentiment among the nation’s homebuilders plunged.

 

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose over 1% in early trade, spurred by a drop in the virus death tolls in both Spain and Italy and reassuring statements from two of the continent’s big budget airlines about their survival prospects.

“We have had this big wave of big announcements by governments and central banks and now we need to get into the nitty gritty of how it all works,” said AXA Investment Managers chief economist Gilles Moec. “We need to see if it is working, how it is working and if we need to do more.”

Earlier in the session Asia had had a difficult day as a result. Tokyo’s Nikkei dropped 1.3% and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost almost 1%, wiping out early week gains that had taken it to a one-month high. Markets in the region were mixed, with Jakarta Composite and Thailand’s SET falling, and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index and Shanghai Composite rising. The Topix declined 0.8%, with and Factory and Pipedo falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3%, with Datang Huayin Electric Power and Pinggao Electric posting the biggest advances.  Benchmark indexes in Australia and Hong Kong also posted falls between 0.4% and 1.3% and some emerging markets fell harder.

“A recovery timeline…remains impossible to predict,” said Ronald Lam, chief customer officer at airline Cathay Pacific, which has slashed nearly all its passenger capacity and lost a fifth of its value this year.

In rates, the 10Y yield was trading at session lows of 0.60%, down 15bps in two days. Given the rebound in EU equities, Eurozone periphery paper added to recovery gains.

In FX, the dollar climbed against all its Group-of-10 peers, while the Aussie dollar led declines. The Aussie slid to a one-week low even as a report showed Australian employers unexpectedly added jobs in March. The Kiwi dollar fell after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr said the central bank hasn’t ruled out negative interest rates. The pound fell as the U.K. is expected to extend its coronavirus lockdown Thursday, while the Bank of England’s Tenreyro will speak. The Canadian dollar was supported as oil prices bounced from recent lows.

In commodities, crude sat at $20.22 per barrel, just over $1 above an 18-year low hit on Wednesday, and Brent crude rose 37 cents or 1.3% in European trade to $28.02 per barrel.

The International Monetary Fund is predicting zero growth in Asia this year for the first time in 60 years, as exporters are pounded by slumping demand and anti-virus measures force consumers to stay home and shops to shut down.

Today’s focus will be on the weekly jobless claims, which are likely to have surged past 5 million last week, taking total unemployment claims to an astounding 20 million in the past month as both corporate results and economic data highlight the severe hit from the shutdown of industry and commerce needed to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Ever more astounding – the market has surged the past three weeks when claims printed in depression territory, almost as if the market is cheering China’s destruction of the US economy with the help of a virus.

“The economic reality and corporate earnings reality, at some stage, needs to reconcile with the markets,” Tai Hui, Asia-Pacific chief market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in a phone interview. “The market hasn’t fully factored in the uncertainties or potential risks in terms of earnings downgrades.”

“We don’t know what the economy is going to look like over the next year – there is a lot of uncertainty with the virus,” said PIMCO’s Mark Kiesel on Bloomberg TV. “We are not through the woods yet — there could be a second wave.”

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is expected to announce “new guidelines” for re-opening the economy as he said data suggested the United States had passed the peak on new coronavirus infections. Markets also seized on the fact that policymakers, however reluctantly, are starting to allow stringent lockdowns to ease. Germany is proposing to reopen schools and some retailers starting May 4, while around 20 U.S. states spared the worst of the coronavirus pandemic may start reopening their economies by President Donald Trump’s May 1 target date. Firms are looking to restart as well. Volkswagen has said its factories in Germany and Slovakia will resume some production from April 20 with others following a week later.

But the economic figures are dire. After the IMF’s forecasts for this year, markets are expecting China to report on Friday that Q1 GDP contracted for the first time on record, and hopes for a quick rebound are fading fast. A Reuters survey showed that most Japanese firms feel stimulus announced so far are insufficient and Wednesday’s U.S. data also showed manufacturing output there dropping the most in over 74 years.

Expected data include jobless claims and housing starts. Abbott, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,795.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 326.82
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 142.00
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 458.18
  • Nikkei down 1.3% to 19,290.20
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,422.24
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 24,006.45
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,819.94
  • Sensex up 1% to 30,669.94
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 5,416.28
  • Kospi unchanged at 1,857.07
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.8 bps to -0.437%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0887
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 9.8 bps to 1.709%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 0.869%
  • Brent futures up 1.6% to $28.14/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,723.74
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 99.75

Top Overnight News

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said he will unveil guidelines to relax stay-at-home rules on Thursday, citing signs that the outbreak is plateauing in parts of the country. Britain is expected to extend its lockdown
  • The coronavirus marked another grim milestone, reaching 2 million cases around the world. It took about four months for the virus to infect 1 million people and only 12 days for that number to double
  • The U.S. economy went into a defensive crouch as the coronavirus swept through the country, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve
  • Australian employers unexpectedly added jobs likely bolstered by hiring at supermarkets and associated supply chains to assist with the spending surge ahead of the lockdown and confounding the expectations of most economists
  • The U.K. coronavirus lockdown’s chilling effect on the economy was laid bare in data Thursday. Total retail sales slumped 27% in the two weeks following the government’s order to stay at home according to the British Retail Consortium. That compares to a 12% increase in the first three weeks of March as households stocked up on goods
  • Oil was anchored near $20 a barrel after closing at an 18-year low as concerns over virus-led demand destruction outweigh an agreement by the world’s biggest producers to curb supply
  • President Donald Trump said he will unveil guidelines to relax stay-at-home rules on Thursday, citing signs that the coronavirus outbreak is plateauing in parts of the country
  • The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg sees China’s gross domestic product contracting 6% in the three months to March, though forecasts range from -16% to growth of 3.6%
  • Germany agreed to backstop losses of 30 billion euros ($33 billion) for commercial credit insurers this year to keep trade flowing and prevent bankruptcies as the coronavirus crisis causes widespread disruption

Asian equity markets remained subdued amid the headwinds from Wall St where risk sentiment was dampened by the ongoing oil market rout, weak earnings from the large banks and poor data releases, with comments from President Trump not helping to brighten the mood as he threatened to adjourn Congress if administration nominations are not confirmed. ASX 200 (-0.9%) was dragged by broad weakness across its sectors aside from some resilient patches among defensives and with corporate updates also providing a catalyst for individual stock moves, while Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) was dampened as coronavirus-related disruptions and shutdown extensions hampered Tokyo blue-chip manufacturers. Hang Seng (-0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) traded subdued as sentiment in Hong Kong was dampened amid the weakening economic climate with Hong Kong Financial Secretary Chan suggesting the government will likely downgrade its outlook, although losses in the mainland were limited as markets await tomorrow’s slew of tier 1 Chinese data including Q1 GDP which People’s Daily noted will remain positive despite the current expectations for a contraction of 6.5% Y/Y. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher amid the weakness seen across stocks and with prices underpinned following firmer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction in the long to super-long end.

Top Asian News

  • China Says Factories May Halt Output Again on Costs, Weak Demand
  • Deadline Expires for Israel Power-Sharing Talks Without Deal

European equities hold onto most of their gains (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%) as prices were lifted around the entrance of European players following a less optimistic, more-so mixed, APAC lead. News-flow has been light thus far, although the price action seems to be more consolidation from yesterday’s moves. Late yesterday, France, Spain, Austria, Belgium, and Greece extended their short-selling ban on stocks to May 18th (originally set to expire in the coming days), albeit the respective bouses do not see significantly disproportionate price action vs. the region. Sectors are mostly in the green (ex-energy) but do not reflect a clear risk-tone. The IT sector outperforms as chip names see tailwinds from strong TSMC earnings, after the world’s largest contract chipmaker’s Q1 profit almost doubled on chip demand; albeit, H2 revenue is seen “flattish or may decline slightly”, the group also maintained its Capex guidance. Thus, the likes of STMicroelectronics (+3.0%), Infineon (+2.7%) and Dialog Semiconductor (+4.1%) remain underpinned. The sector breakdown sees Travel & Leisure towards the top of the pack amid tailwinds from easyJet’s (+3.0%) trading update in which it announced further steps to strengthen liquidity, which will be sufficient for a lengthy period of fleet grounding. Other individual movers include EDF (-5.9%) as shares feel the brunt of demand potentially falling to 20% of normal levels amid the virus outbreak

Top European News

  • Italian Bonds Extend Gains Across Curve Amid Hope of ESM Support
  • Germany to Provide 30 Billion-Euro Backstop for Credit Insurers
  • Merkel Moves Ahead With Gradual Return to Normality in Germany
  • Russia’s Oil Pain Deepens as OPEC+ Prepares to Cut Output

In FX, the Antipodean Dollars have both extended losses vs their US rival in wake of comments from RBNZ Governor Orr overnight reiterating that negative interest rates remain an option along with direct financing in response to the coronavirus, while a considerably better than expected Australian employment report was swiftly dismissed due to the early data reference period that preceded the closure of non-essential businesses due to COVID-19. The Kiwi is trying to hold above 0.5945 lows and Aussie reclaim 0.6300 vs 0.6266 or so at one stage as Aud/Nzd straddles 1.0550 ahead of key Chinese releases early on Friday, headlined by Q1 GDP, but also including March ip and retail sales.

  • JPY/EUR/GBP/CHF – All weaker against the Greenback as the DXY remains elevated within a 99.615-100.000 range, but with the Yen off worst levels and perhaps cushioned by decent option expiry interest at the 108.00 strike (1.8 bn) even though Japan is reportedly on the brink of extending its partial state of emergency from 7 prefectures to the whole country through to May 6. Similarly, the Euro could derive traction from multi-billion expiries under 1.0900 (1.0840-50 in 1.5bn, 1.0875 in 1.5bn, 1.0880-85 in 1.1bn) having derived very little if any support from not quite as bad as forecast Eurozone ip or ECB’s Schnabel ramming home the message that more conventional easing is counterproductive. However, the single currency did get some transitory momentum from Eur/Gbp cross flows as the pair bounced towards 0.8730 and Cable tripped some stops at 1.2460 awaiting official confirmation that UK lockdown will be prolonged until May 7 at least. Elsewhere, the Franc is still mixed just above 0.9700, but edging closer to 1.0500 vs the Euro following deeper Swiss producer and import price deflation (in y/y terms).
  • CAD/NOK/SEK – Relative G10 outperformers as some buoyancy in oil prices underpins the Loonie and Norwegian Crown after the former extended post-BoC losses, while the Swedish Krona has shrugged off softer Prospera money market inflation expectations and Riksbank-Riksdag wrangling over policy mandates amidst a modest upturn in broad risk sentiment.
  • EM – Although crude markets seem calmer to the benefit of the Rub, no such comfort for the Mxn in wake of Fitch downgrading Mexico to BBB from BBB-, as the Peso languishes under 24.4000 vs the Buck and not far from earlier April lows.

In commodities, Choppy trade in the complex as WTI and Brent front-month futures nursed earlier losses and extend on gains throughout the European session thus far, with the former initially faring slightly better than the latter heading into the OPEC+ monthly oil market report, albeit this has now reversed and the difference between the contracts widens. WTI potentially saw some support from reports that the US will be paying drillers to leave the oil in the ground amid the supply glut. Traders will now be eyeing the report for the group’s 2020 outlook, especially after producers hammered out a deal over the weekend. For reference, IEA predicts 2020 global oil demand to slump 9.3mln BPD whilst EIA downgraded its forecast by 5.6mln BPD. IEA report also stated that no feasible agreement could cut supply by enough to offset near-term demand losses, so it will be interesting to see OPEC’s take on the market balance. WTI trades on either side of USD 20/bbl after printing an ~18yr base yesterday at USD 19.20/bbl. Brent prices meanwhile gain ground above 28/bbl with its respective YTD base around USD 21.70/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold is back on a firmer footing and remains comfortably above USD 1700/oz. Some note that the rally in the yellow metal has been underpinned by significant inflows into ETFs. Spot gold sees its recent high at 1747.75/oz. Copper meanwhile, mirrors the gains in stocks, albeit price action in the red metal remains muted/contained. Finally, aluminium prices continued to rise with desks citing rising expectations of supply cuts driving the market alongside modest improvement in the Chinese markets.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.3m, prior 1.6m; 8:30am: Housing Starts MoM, est. -18.7%, prior -1.5%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.3m, prior 1.46m; Building Permits MoM, est. -10.47%, prior -5.5%
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. -32, prior -12.7
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 5.5m, prior 6.61m; Continuing Claims, est. 13.3m, prior 7.46m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 49.9

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

One of the strange things about this lockdown in the U.K. is that after months of constant rain, since the lockdown commenced we’ve had almost wall to wall unseasonably hot weather. One silver lining has been that I’ve managed to fulfill a lifelong ambition during this episode and that is to wear shorts every day to work.

Indeed the shorts were out at home and in charge in the market yesterday as it was a rare risk off day yesterday in terms of the bull market of the last three weeks. Don’t fear though as we have initial jobless claims today to maybe help us change course? Over the last three weeks where we’ve seen a stunning 16.8 million people file, the S&P 500 has been up +6.24%, +2.28%, +3.41% in each of these sessions. For the record an extra 5.5 million are expected today. As our economists have detailed we are on track for a 17% unemployment rate in the US in April, which would be a new post-WWII high.

Global equities sold off as data releases for March along with company earnings showed that we are now going to enter the peak of the bad data/earnings news even if we may be past the peak of the epidemic for now. In fact equities were off the lows of the session just after Europe closed as Germany announced a cautious but planned exit strategy starting from May 3rd. Their plan is to open secondary schools, hairdressers and smaller shops with strict hygiene measures. Bars, restaurants, and hotels will remain closed until further notice, and large gatherings will remain forbidden until at least September.

On the virus development, global cases have climbed above 2 million in the last 24 hours. Worldwide cases passed 1 million on April 2, so we have doubled over the last 13 days, whereas it took 8 days previously to double from 500,000. The pace of new case growth is slowing along with fatalities virtually everywhere in the developed world. For more on this and all the latest virus news see our Corona Crisis Daily.

Back to markets and by the end of the session, the S&P 500 was down -2.20% (off session lows of -2.97% ), its largest move lower in 2 weeks, while in Europe the STOXX 600 was down -3.25%. As noted above, US equities recovered shortly after Chancellor Merkel’s press conference, where she outlined the initial exit strategy for the largest economy in Europe, before fading again into the close. Energy stocks led the declines thanks to oil’s move lower (more below), but every sector in both the S&P 500 and the STOXX 600 ended up lower on the day. The Energy sector was down -5.42% and -6.30% in the US and in Europe. Banks weren’t much better and were down -5.93% and -6.20% respectively as loan loss provisions in US results season so far has spooked investors a bit. Furthermore, and in a sign of investor jitters, the VIX index of volatility actually rose for the first time in over a week, moving up by +3.1pts, which is its biggest daily percentage move higher since March 16th when the VIX reached its highest closing level of the coronavirus pandemic. Another notable sign of the deterioration was in financial conditions, with the Bloomberg US financial conditions index snapping a run of 12 successive daily improvements to tighten for the first time since late March.

Overnight, markets in Asia have taken their cue from Wall Street with the Nikkei (-1.37%), Hang Seng (-0.79%), Shanghai Comp (-0.17%), ASX (-1.05%) and Kospi (-0.37%) all down. In FX, the New Zealand dollar is down -0.65% after the country’s central bank governor indicated that the option of negative rates are “not off the table” while the Mexican peso has weakened -1.70% after Mexico’s sovereign rating was downgraded to BBB- by Fitch. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading down -0.58% while yields on 10yr USTS are up +1.2bps to 0.644%.

In terms of overnight newsflow, President Trump has indicated that he will unveil guidelines today on how the US plans to relax stay-at-home rules. Meanwhile, Singapore has reported its highest daily increase of coronavirus cases with 447 new cases. Most of these cases (c. 90%) are tied to facilities that house migrant workers in close quarters. In South Korea, the government has unveiled a second extra budget this morning of KRW 7.6tn ($6.2bn) to pay for emergency cash handouts. Sticking with South Korea, in yesterday’s election President Moon’s Democratic Party of Korea and its satellite party are projected to win at least 180 seats in the 300-seat National Assembly, according to election results and projections compiled by Yonhap News Agency. The report further added that if projections indeed transpire to reality then it would amount to the biggest win since democratic elections began in 1987.

Moving on. Company earnings releases haven’t helped markets much so far. The US banks reporting yesterday painted a picture of lower profits and increased provisions for loan losses, with only the more markets oriented GS higher on the day. Goldman Sachs’ (shares +0.16%) net earnings of $1.21bn were down -46% on the previous year, and they put aside $937m in provision for credit losses in Q1. Bank of America’s (-6.41%) net income was down -45% on the previous year at $4.0bn in Q1, and they similarly made a $4.8bn provision for credit losses. Finally, Citigroup’s (-5.61%) net income of $2.52bn in Q1 was down 46%. Meanwhile ASML (-2.23%) didn’t even issue guidance for Q2 or full-year 2020 because of the increased uncertainty from the coronavirus.

Oil prices also continued to decline, with Brent Crude (-6.45% yesterday) and WTI (-1.19%) lower, even as oil prices rallied near the US close on news that the US may pay drillers not to produce, though it is not clear yet in what way. The earlier weaker moves came as the International Energy Agency said yesterday that they expected global oil demand to fall by a record -9.3m barrels per day in 2020 compared with last year. And for April, demand would be down by -29m b/d compared with a year ago, reaching levels not seen since 1995. Notably, they said that the implied stock build-up from the first half of the year “still threatens to overwhelm the logistics of the oil industry – ships, pipelines and storage tanks – in the coming weeks.” Oil-producing currencies suffered, with the Norwegian krone (-1.94%) and the Canadian dollar (-1.67%) both losing ground against the US dollar, although it should be said that much of that was as a result of dollar strength as investors sought out safe havens, with the dollar index up +0.58% yesterday in its largest daily appreciation since March 30.

Over in fixed income, there was yet another widening of sovereign bond spreads in southern Europe yesterday, with the spread of Italian (+18.7bps), Spanish (+10.8bps), Greek (+23.5bps) and Portuguese (+12.9bps) 10yr debt all widening over German bunds. Italian BTPs saw some sizeable intraday swings in particular, with the spread being up +28.8bps at the high, which would have been the largest single-day widening since March 16th. They closed at 235bps – the highest since March 18th. So investor concern over the debt piles in southern Europe haven’t gone away, in spite of the ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme and the Eurogroup meeting last week. The domestic debate over whether the ESM should be accessed in Italy rolls on. Europe will still need to pull off a diplomatic coup this time next week at the next Eurogroup meeting to flesh out the details of the recovery fund in a way acceptable to all.

Staying with spreads credit also had a set back after a good run. US cash HY and IG widened +29bps and +3bps with the equivalent in Europe +1bp and +6bps wider.

The flight to safety helped support core countries’ debt, with 10yr Treasury yields down by -12.0bps to 0.632%. Bunds also rallied strongly yesterday, with the entire yield curve out to 30 years negative-yielding once again. 10yr yields were down by -8.8bps.

The risk-off mood for markets came against the backdrop of hard data from the US coming in even worse than had already been anticipated by economists, which added to the already negative tone of yesterday’s session. Retail sales in March fell by -8.7% (vs. -8.0% expected) on a month-on-month basis, far exceeding the worst monthly performance in the financial crisis, which was “only” a -3.9% decline in November 2008. That said, there were some notable divergences between sectors, with food and beverage stores showing a +25.6% monthly increase as increasing numbers of people have been told to stay home, while clothing and clothing accessories stores were down by -50.5%. The picture wasn’t any brighter in the other releases however, with March’s industrial production falling by -5.4% (vs. -4.0% expected) month-on-month, which was the worst monthly performance since January 1946, less than a year after WWII had ended. And the April releases didn’t provide any respite either, with the Empire State manufacturing survey’s general business conditions index falling to a record low of -78.2 (vs. -35.0 expected), while the NAHB housing market index fell to 30 (vs. 55 expected).

Later, the Fed’s Beige Book showed economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the US as a result of the virus. As expected, the hardest-hit industries were leisure and hospitality, as well as retail outside of essential goods. Loan demand was high, both from companies accessing credit lines and from households refinancing mortgages. The near-term outlook was for more job cuts in coming months.

Elsewhere the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% but announced new measures to buy both provincial and corporate debt. The bank will buy up to CAD50 billion of provincial debt in a new Provincial Bond Purchase Program as well as buy up to CAD10 billion of IG bonds in the secondary market as part of its new Corporate Bond Purchase Program.

To the day ahead now, and there are a number of key data releases out. From the US, there’ll be March’s housing starts and building permits, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook for April, along with weekly initial jobless claims. Elsewhere, we’ll also get the final German CPI reading for March, Euro Area industrial production for February and Canadian manufacturing sales for February. From central banks there’ll be a number of speakers, including the BoE’s Tenreyro, as well as the Fed’s Bostic, Williams and Daly. Finally, there’ll be earnings releases from Abbott Laboratories, BlackRock and BNY Mellon.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.76 POINTS OR 0.31%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 138.89 POINTS OR 0.58%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 259.89 POINTS OR 1.33%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0730 /Oil DOWN TO 20.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and 28.64 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0730 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0784 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China//USA

Fox news is reporting what we have been telling you for the past couple of months:  The coronavirus originated in a Wuhan lab  feet away from the wet market.  The lab employee, patient zero, is Huang Yangli.  She had an accident and spilled some bat blood on herself and she became infected.  It seems she infected her boyfriend as well.  They visited the  wet market and that is how the coronavirus proliferated.  China will need to be held responsible..but the damages are in the hundreds of trillions…

(zerohedge)

Fox News Reports Coronavirus Originated In Wuhan Lab

Fox News reports that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology and that “patient zero” was a lab employee who became infected before spreading it in the community – just as we have reported repeatedly over the past three months, in exchange for which Twitter’s “appropriate content” arbiters deplatformed us without reason or explanation.

According to ‘multiple sources who have been briefed on the details of early actions by China’s government,’ the initial transmission of the virus was bat-to-human, and that the ‘official’ story amplified by the MSM – namely that the virus originated at the Wuhan wet market – was a coverup by Chinese officials ‘in order to deflect blame from the laboratory, along with the country’s propaganda efforts targeting the U.S. and Italy,’ reads the report.

In what may or may not be a bit of narrative shaping from ‘official sources,’ Fox reports that China’s Wuhan laboratory was working with COVID-19 “not as a bioweapon, but as part of China’s effort to demonstrate that its efforts to identify and combat viruses are equal to or greater than the capabilities of the United States.

So – lab accident while trying to compete with America’s capabilities appears to be the official story.

On Tuesday, the Washington Post reported that the US State Department received two cables from US Embassy officials in 2018 warning of inadequate safety at WIF, which was conducting ‘risky studies’ on bat coronaviruses, according to the Washington Postwhich notes that the cables have “fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus.”

Responding to the report, Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed that the United States has taken a “keen interest” in the theory that COVID-19 originated at the Wuhan lab, but that “we don’t know for certain.”

On Tuesday, President Trump hinted that there was more to the story about the lab, after a Fox News reporter asked him about the Wuhan Institute and whether the US had considered the possibility that the virus may have leaked.

Trump’s response was extremely interesting, to say the least.

“More and more we’re hearing the story…we are doing a very thorough examination of this horrible situation that happened.”

As a follow-up, the reporter continued, “did you ever discuss with him concerns about lax safety protocols about that lab?”

Trump replied: “I don’t want to talk about what I discussed with him about the laboratory. I just don’t want to talk about it,” Trump responded.

JM Rieger

@RiegerReport

Trump on reporting that the coronavirus, while a naturally-occurring virus, came from a Wuhan laboratory:

“I don’t want to say that … but I will tell you more and more we’re hearing the story…we are doing a very thorough examination”

Fox News’ report: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources 

Embedded video

China’s suppression campaign

Meanwhile, Fox News also reports that China “100 percent” suppressed and altered data – destroying samples, scrubbing contaminated areas, and stifling academic articles.

There were doctors and journalists who were “disappeared” warning of the spread of the virus and its contagious nature and human to human transmission.  China moved quickly to shut down travel domestically from Wuhan to the rest of China, but did not stop international flights from Wuhan.

Additionally, the sources tell Fox News the World Health Organization (WHO) was complicit from the beginning in helping China cover its tracks. -Fox News

And now a word from Brendan Carr, commissioner of the FCC to Twitter CEO, @Jack.

Brendan Carr

@BrendanCarrFCC

I’m old enough to remember when posting this would get you deplatformed.https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources 

Sources believe coronavirus originated in Wuhan lab as part of China’s efforts to compete with US

There is increasing confidence that COVID-19 likely originated in a Wuhan laboratory not as a bioweapon, but as part of China’s effort to demonstrate that its efforts to identify and combat viruses…

foxnews.com

END
CHINA VS USA
China getting nervous:  they have suddenly toughened (stopped) critical medical goods destined for the uSA
The uSA taught the Chinese how to make the stuff and this is how they have rewarded them.
(zerohedge)

Retaliation? China Suddenly Toughens Export Rules, Freezing Critical Medical Goods Destined For US

Just hours after President Trump, General Milley, and now the mainstream US media, increase the rhetoric volume on the source of the “Chinese Virus”, with questions about leaks from the Wuhan Lab growing louder, American firms producing medical goods in China have been slapped new export restrictions, stranding much of the supplies in warehouses across the country.

This new hurdle comes at a time when shortages of masks, test kits, and other medical equipment have materialized in many hospital systems across the US.

Suppliers, brokers, and State Department memos reveal that large sums of protective gear lay on pallets in Chinese warehouses, unable to receive necessary shipping authorizations to the US, reported The Wall Street Journal.

For example, 1.4 million COVID-19 test kits sit in a warehouse in China, unable to ship from PerkinElmer Inc.’s Suzhou factory because “it lacks certification required by the new rules,” a State Department memo read, first reviewed by The Journal.

Another memo said Shanghai officials told 3M that the city is overly reliant on 3M-95 masks, and it would be up to Beijing to lift export restrictions.

 

Mask making factory in China 

State Department memos said the new restrictions had created “bottlenecks” for the US at a time when medical supplies are urgently needed.

The export restrictions have “disrupted established supply chains for medical products just as these products were most needed for the global response to COVID-19,” according to a memo this week.

“Every single day we don’t have the proper protective equipment is a new health-care worker exposed, is a new hole in the ship that is our current hospital system and ICU bed structure,” said Illinois Deputy Gov. Christian Mitchell, who leads the state’s efforts in acquiring medical supplies.

The Journal notes how China has created fresh “logjams” for companies trying to export medical supplies to the US.

“The export restrictions then followed. Chinese customs prohibited the export of medical products without certifications from China’s National Medical Products Administration, even if the goods had been registered with the US Food and Drug Administration. On Friday China added another hurdle, subjecting certain types of surgical protective gear and equipment—including ventilators and masks—to extra checks before they could be shipped overseas.” 

This has undoubtedly strained ties between the Communist government and the Trump administration.

There are some unanswered questions we have – first, why would Beijing suddenly delay critical medical goods that are knowingly used to combat the virus.

Second, could the new export restrictions be a punishment by Beijing? And, if so, why would Beijing want to punish the Trump administration? Unless they know that President Trump is setting the narrative to blame the Wuhan lab.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY/EU/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

The EU apologizes to Italy for their late response to the coronavirus..updates from around the globe.

EU Apologizes To Italy For Tepid Coronavirus Response After Global Outbreak’s Deadliest Day: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Germany reports jump in new cases, deaths
  • Spain reports most new cases in a week
  • Turkey releases mafia boss from prison
  • Global Times editor denies report about leak from Wuhan lab
  • Chinese factories on verge of second shutdown
  • European Commission President apologizes to Italy
  • Russia’s streak of record new cases stretches to 5th day
  • Japan expands state of emergency to cover whole country
  • Party of South Korean president wins 180 of 300 seats in legislative vote
  • President Trump to unveil plan to reopen economy Thursday

*      *      *

Update (0730ET): As expected, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe on Thursday expanded his ‘toothless’ state of emergency order to cover the entire country, after initially targeting just seven prefectures (including Tokyo) after the entire northern island of Hokkaido declared its own state of emergency on Sunday following a sharp resurgence in new cases.

Though the government can’t force businesses to close and people to stay inside, the government has asked some non-essential businesses to close and people to work from home).

To ease the financial burden on Japanese households, Abe’s government is also planning a Trump-style cash handout of ¥100,000 ($930) for every citizen, regardless of income, according to the Nikkei Asian Review.

The government had originally planned to give 300,000 to qualified households that had lost income, but it came under heavy criticism because the payments were seen as too complicated and too small. Distributing ¥100,000 to every citizen will cost the government more than 1.2 trillion yen, or $11 billion.

Across the Sea of Japan, South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s left-leaning Democratic Party won a staggering victory during Wednesday’s legislative election, leaving his government in a strong position to push through its agenda of reforms. Despite the outbreak, the turnout in the election reached an all-time high, as South Koreans rushed to reward the government for its response to the outbreak. With 180 seats out of the 300-seat legislature, Moon’s government is in a strong position to push through reforms of the penal system, income distribution and relations with NK, though he doesn’t have enough votes to push through changes to the South Korean constitution.

*      *      *

What would have been tax day for US citizens has come and gone. And as we enter the back half of April – and millions of Americans join the ranks of the unemployed – and some are starting to get a little restless.

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases surpassed the 2 million mark, as we reported last night. According to the FT, 84,515 new cases were confirmed around the world on Wednesday, roughly even with the numbers from the last two weeks. However, a record 7,959 deaths were recorded yesterday, a worldwide record.

But perhaps the most important revelation from last night came shortly after the conclusion of last night’s White House press conference. A Fox News reporter asked the president a couple of surprising questions about the Wuhan Institute of Virology and whether the virus might have leaked out of the level 4 bio-lab. We were de-platformed by Twitter for asking the same question a few months back.

Source: FT

As it turned out, those questions portended a much bigger revelation: Fox News reported last night, citing a handful of anonymous sources, that the novel coronavirus accidentally leaked out of the Wuhan biolab.

Now, with yet another ‘conspiracy theory’ apparently well on its way to becoming a ‘conspiracy fact’, Beijing has chosen to issue its rebuttal via the editor in chief of the Global Times, one of the CPC’s most popular English-language mouthpieces.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Fox News published a ridiculous report claiming COVID-19 originated in a Wuhan lab. President Trump helped hype this story to divert public’s attention. It’s a dirty trick. Trump will further exploit China topic for his reelection campaign.

We imagine we’ll be hearing more from the CPC’s official spokesmen and women. But the fact that such a high-level mouthpiece was tapped for the initial denial is certainly telling.

Moving on: Two days after Turkey passed a prisoner amnesty law, one of the most notorious Turkish Mafia bosses has been released from prison as part of a program to release 90k offenders, some of whom were violent criminals. Alaattin Cakici, who was convicted for murder and racketeering, is well known for having close ties to an ultra-nationalist party that is working in a coalition with President Erdogan’s AKP. Critics have criticized the amnesty program for leaving thousands of journalists and civil-society activists behind bars.

Offering the latest indication that mainland China is likely headed for a second shutdown, this one driven by a combination of viral resurgence fears and a staggering drop in demand, BBG reports that Chinese manufacturers who resumed work as restrictions were being lifted are already being forced to halt production again due to rising costs, difficulties in funding and logistics, and, of course, the demand drop, said Xu Kemin, an official with the industry ministry.

Germany reported a jump in new cases and deaths, with the number of newly diagnosed cases at its highest level in a week. Spain also reported a jump in new cases, confirming 5,183, the most in a week, bringing its countrywide total to 182,816. Health officials also reported 551 deaths, for a total of 19,130 since the outbreak began.

In Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Europe should offer a “heartfelt apology” to Italy for failing to help when the country became the first EU nation to be hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

“You cannot overcome a pandemic of this speed and this scale without the truth, the truth about everything: the numbers, the science, the outlook, but also about our own actions,” she said during a speech to the European Parliament.

Of course, as we noted at the time, von der Leyen and the European Commission didn’t just fail to act; they encouraged EU member states to keep their borders open, while playing down the severity of the outbreak.

Finally, Russia’s streak of disturbing records in new cases reported stretched to a fifth consecutive record jump on Thursday, while the country also recorded its highest jump in deaths. Health officials in Moscow said they had recorded 3,448 new cases across the country, a 14% jump that took Russia’s total to 27,938, while 34 more people died overnight, raising Russia’s death toll to 232. And

Looking ahead, President Trump said during the White House’s Wednesday night press briefing that he would unveil the White House’s guidelines for reopening the economy this afternoon. The guidelines were purportedly developed following conversations with CEOs and leaders of American corporations (even as some have pointed out that corporations might not have the best interests of small business at heart).

END

Italy/debt

Italy was in a mess prior to the virus and now they are in the glue much deeper.  Their new debt to GDP is climbing to 150% from 135.  They must leave the EU and devalue their new “lira”

(London’s Financial Times/Stubbington)

and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us

Italian debt sinks after ‘corona bond’ plan falters

‘It’s every man for himself’ as countries rack up debt to fight Covid-19 pandemic

Italian government bonds are coming under increasing pressure despite the European Central Bank’s huge asset-purchase programme, as investors worry about the enormous debt load Italy and other eurozone members are taking on to combat the coronavirus crisis.

A sell-off in Italy’s government debt extended to a second day on Wednesday, pushing the country’s 10-year yield to a four-week high of more than 1.8 per cent. Bonds issued by Greece, Portugal and Spain also weakened.

The gap between Italian and German yields — a measure of risk in eurozone bond markets — widened to more than 2.2 percentage points, reversing more than half of the narrowing seen since the announcement of the ECB’s €750bn Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme on March 18.

The shake-up underlines that without a way to pool risk across all euro members, investors will be forced to focus on the financial risk each country is taking on to fight the pandemic.

“What matters to markets is the sense that we are not seeing solidarity at a time of crisis. Instead, it’s every man for himself,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management. “That is going to fuel Euroscepticism, which eventually sees fears of a break-up getting priced in. As an investor, I think that dynamic is more important than the finer points of any eurozone deal.”

Fears over debt sustainability have intensified since eurozone finance ministers last week failed to include jointly issued so-called “corona bonds” in their crisis-fighting package. An Italian push for shared debt was squashed by Germany and the Netherlands, which prefer to see relief efforts channelled through the eurozone’s bailout fund.

Italy’s debt burden will rise to more than 150 per cent of gross domestic product this year, up from 134 per cent last year, Rabobank is projecting. Debt will climb to 108 per cent of output in Spain and 128 per cent in Portugal, while Germany will see a much more modest rise to 63 per cent, according to the bank.

Some fund managers are reluctant to buy into Italy’s relatively high-yielding debt despite the backing of the ECB, fearing a political backlash to the crisis that could reawaken questions about eurozone membership and weaken the bonds further.

“[The] creditworthiness of member states is back at the centre of the market’s radar,” said Richard McGuire, a rates strategist at Rabobank. “It’s not just an Italy issue, it’s right across southern Europe. We are moving back to a two-speed continent,” he said.

Yields in Italy are still well short of the peak of almost 3 per cent hit a month ago and far below the heights reached during the eurozone debt crisis. Heavy buying by the ECB has ensured all eurozone members can borrow from bond markets. Greece, considered the bloc’s riskiest issuer, gathered robust demand for new seven-year debt on Wednesday. Athens received more than €5bn of orders for the bond, its first since junk-rated Greek debt was included in the ECB’s purchase programme.

The central bank bought more than €20bn of bonds under the PEPP last week, on top of €30bn the week before. The ECB may need to step up the pace of purchases in order to keep a lid on yields, according to ING rates strategist Antoine Bouvet.

“Benign borrowing conditions for the emerging debt tsunami will have to be ensured,” he said.

end

UK/

Something went wrong as the UK government cannot deliver Covid loans to small business firms who are near collapse

(Courtesy Corbishley/WolfStreet)

“Something’s Gone Wrong”: UK Government, Banks Screw Up COVID-Loans, Small Firms Near Collapse

Authored by Nick Corbishley via WolfStreet.com,

Part of the problem is cultural: big banks in the UK don’t like lending to small businesses, especially not at 1.5%…

Thanks to its Brexit planning, the UK should have been better positioned to help its small businesses through the coronavirus crisis than most of its European peers. In early 2019, the UK treasury, together with the business department and the state-owned British Business Bank, laid the groundwork for a loan guarantee system for small businesses in the event of a chaotic Brexit. This meant that when the Covid-19 lockdown began, all the government needed to do was dust off those plans and put them into action. It should have been smooth sailing. Instead, it’s been an unmitigated disaster.

 

On March 19, the day the economy went into lockdown, the government unveiled £330 billion of emergency measures to help shuttered businesses weather the storm. Those measures included the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS), which the Chancellor of Exchequer Rishi Sunak said would be made available to “any good business in financial difficulty who needs access to cash to pay their rent, the salaries of their employees, pay suppliers, or purchase stock”. Yet almost four weeks later, just 4,000 of the 300,000 companies that have applied for the funds have actually received them.

“Something has gone wrong,” warned former Bank of England governor Mervyn King on Sunday. Due to a combination of voluminous government red tape, complex eligibility criteria, massive roadblocks erected by the participating banks and the temporary closure of a large number of bank branches, the amount of money so far lent out by UK lenders to small or mid-sized businesses is just £800 million pounds. That’s less than 0.25% of the total £330 billion pledged in loans for businesses, small and large.

In Switzerland, with a population roughly one eighth the size as the UK’s, 76,000 small businesses had received emergency loans worth more than CHF15 billion ($15 billion) as of April 6. Since then, the Swiss government has doubled the facility from CHF20 billion ($20.8 billion) to CHF40 billion ($41.6 billion). The much-lauded loan scheme’s success appears to rest on two basic pillars:

One, simplicity and speed. To qualify for a loan of up half a million francs, small business owners merely have to fill in a one-page form containing six basic questions, which they must answer honestly. Once the form is sent to the bank, the application is approved or rejected within no more than 24 hours. If approved, the loan is interest free, does not include penalties and is repayable in five years.

Two, zero risks for banks. All loans of up to CHF500,000 are 100% guaranteed by the state, meaning the banks have nothing to lose and are therefore less worried about the risk of providing financial lifelines to businesses whose future is far from certain, even with the loans.

In the UK, by contrast, 80% of each loan is guaranteed by the state, which means banks must assume 20% of the risk of non-payment. Even before this crisis began, large UK banks were already reticent about lending to small businesses. Worse still, many of the small firms they have lent to ended up being lumbered with dodgy financial products such as payment protection insurance (PPI) or interest rate swaps, which had an annoying tendency to harm or destroy the business’ financial health while making the bank bucket loads of money,

A large part of the problem is cultural: most big banks in the UK just don’t like lending to small businesses anymore, especially if the interest rate they stand to earn on the loan is as low as 1.5%. Yet in other European countries where emergency business loans are not fully backed by government and the interest on loans is also pretty low, large amounts of funding are already flowing to businesses.

Even in Spain, which is not exactly famed for the speed of its bureaucracy and where the government is also guaranteeing up to 80% of emergency loans and loan renewals, some €30 billion has been disbursed by the banks in the past month, many of them to SMEs. Just one lender, Caixabank, says it has so far granted €8 billion to businesses — ten times more than the whole of the UK banking sector. It’s not all wines and roses, of course. Some banks are breaking the spirit, if not the letter, of Spain’s emergency loan legislation by green-lighting loans only if a borrower agrees to take out another financial product such as life insurance.

Other countries have also had their share of problems. In Germany the emergency loans system got so overloaded at its launch that it bogged down, while in France many companies are buried under mountains of paperwork.

But nowhere has the approach been so poorly designed and implemented than in the UK. The system has already been through one major overhaul in which banks were banned from demanding personal guarantees from borrowers of loans of less than £250,000. The banks were also prevented from requiring small firms to apply for a commercial product before being considered for an emergency loan. Despite these changes, the system is still failing to get anywhere near enough money to the millions of businesses that need it.

Many business owners have said that without an emergency loan they will not be able to pay staff at the end of this month. A network of accountants serving more than 12,000 SMEs called the Corporate Finance Network recently warned that as many as a fifth of small businesses in the UK will go out of business in the next three weeks if they don’t receive the emergency cash.

“The economy will recover quickly only if we can keep the businesses that existed at the beginning of it still functioning and still able to pick up the reins when the epidemic is over,” Mervyn King said in his interview with Sky on Sunday. For that to happen, both the UK government and UK banks will have to get their act together and their priorities straight pretty quickly.

*  *  *

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely.

END

EU

The EU prohibits bailout out companies from paying bonuses and dividends

(zerohedge)

EU Prohibits Bailed Out Companies From Paying Bonuses, Dividends

Back on April 1, we predicted that with European banks suspending dividends across the board, “if shareholders are impacted, why not also the biggest source of bank cash: banker bonuses.” Today, we got partial confirmation of this when the FT reported that companies given equity injections by EU member states as a result of the coronavirus will not be allowed to pay out dividends, buy back shares or provide bonuses or similar remuneration.

The terms and conditions of corporate bailouts emerged after the FT reported last week that the European Commission was exploring a further relaxation of the bloc’s rules on state aid to help ailing companies as a result of the pandemic.

Similar to the US, although in even stricter terms, bailed-out European businesses are also forbidden to take “excessive risks” or even engage in “aggressive commercial expansion”, said a document setting out amendments to the recent relaxation of state aid rules. They will not be able to buy up rivals or other operators in the same sector while still repaying the state.

The constraints are aimed at preventing “undue distortions of competition” and mirror similar restraints imposed on the banking sector at the height of the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Additionally, European businesses that receive an equity injection of more than 20% from a member state will also be obliged to set up a clear exit strategy from that support in the aftermath of the pandemic, although it does not appear that European taxpayers will be granted a stake and instead the only limitation will be on what management should not do, which in light of the current recession where everyone is scrambling to conserve cash, is likely redundant.

The EU is also setting out clear timelines to give companies an incentive to pay back the aid. If by 31 December 2024 the state’s shareholding has not been reduced to below 15 per cent, companies will be obliged to present a restructuring plan to the commission for approval.

“This is more flexible/lenient than the financial crisis principles where the requirement was generally to submit a restructuring plan within 6 months of the recapitalisation,” the document states.

Contrary to the terms established during the financial crisis, Brussels is also encouraging incentives for companies to exit the schemes as soon as possible. It calls for member states to be paid back as close as possible to “market terms” in order to avoid “potential competition distortion caused by the state intervention”.

“The member state shall put a mechanism in place to incentivise redemption before 1 January 2023,” the document adds.

The commission is also proposing that EU countries consider the potential sale of business units for those companies in receipt of large amounts of aid and with considerable market share in a certain sector.

“The commission is expected to ask member states to attach conditions to recapitalisations in order to preserve competition,” explains Natura Gracia, a partner in law firm Linklaters in London. “It shows that the EU has learnt from past crises.”

The constraints on bailed-out companies emerged as regulators rushed to implement a so-called temporary framework that has seen state aid rules relaxed to help companies through the pandemic. This week, competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager encouraged European countries to build stakes in companies that might be vulnerable to unfair takeover by state-backed foreign entities.

It wasn’t immediately clear if this means that banks, all of which are implicitly receiving a bailout courtesy of the ECB’s various QE programs, will see an indefinite pause in bonus payouts or if the banks are exempt and the only targets of this regulation are ordinary corporations and the continent’s small and medium businesses.

END

FRANCE/AIRCRAFT CARRIER CHARLES DE GAULE/CORONAVIRUS

France’s lone aircraft carrier the Charles de Gaulle has 1/3 of its sailors infected with the Coronavirus

(ZEROHEDGE)

US Sailors Among 668 Infected On French Aircraft Carrier Charles de Gaulle

Last week we reported that yet another aircraft carrier had been diverted from its mission due to a coronavirus outbreak among crew following the USS Theodore Roosevelt fiasco, but in the latest case it was France’s lone nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, forced to return home early from deployment in the Atlantic while en route to a routine mission in the Middle East region.

Initially some some 40 sailors had been put under medical observation for coronavirus as of a week ago, but now a whopping one-third of the entire crew have tested COVID-19 positive – 668 out of nearly 2,000 – according to the French Navy.

It was revealed at the start of the week that American sailors are also on board, likely in support of recent NATO exercises the carrier was involved in. At least two Americans are confirmed positive, after the ship docked at the port of Toulon and as testing ramped up.

 

French carrier Charles de Gaulle, via EPA

And two additional Americans are in quarantine and being monitored for symptoms. “Two of four U.S. Sailors assigned to the French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) tested positive for COVID19 and are receiving excellent host nation medical care at French facilities,” a Navy spokesman told CNN.

Currently, at least 20 French sailors are in the hospital, including one in intensive care. It’s believed the numbers of infected are further set to rise rapidly as it’s been reported 30% of test results have yet to come back.

Like the USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at Guam, which also saw its cases spike to nearly 600 as of early this week, the French carrier is now in quarantine, after cutting short its deployment by ten days.

Before being diverted it was to continue France’s Operation Chammal in support of anti-ISIL missions in the Middle East.

 

Image: AFP via Getty

No doubt enemies of the United States and Europe are taking note of the ease with which this virus took out multi-billion dollar state-of-the-art aircraft carriers, which up to now appeared unbeatable and unable to be thwarted from their missions.

As we noted beforeChinese state media is positively boastful about it, using these developments to brag that its PLA navy hasn’t been impacted, supposedly.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

MEXICO

Mexico downgraded to one notch above junk..with low oil prices and the coronavirus they will no doubt be close to defaulting on their bond issues.  They are massively short on borrowed dollars

(zerohedge)

Mexico Downgraded To Just One Notch Above Junk On Imminent “Severe Recession”

While Mexico scored a dramatic, if mostly symbolic, victory in its “Mexican standoff” with Saudi Arabia over the weekend, when the oil producer who famously hedges its output every year in preparation for the worst received an exemption from the uniform 23% production cut, its economy sadly remains in shambles as it enters a deep recession, the Mexican peso recently plunged to all time lows (and is headed in that direction again), the coronavirus epidemic is ravaging its population, its industrial base is frozen with its biggest client – the US – on indefinite hiatus, and generally things are going from bad to worse.

None of that has escaped Fitch, which moments ago downgrade Mexico from BBB to BBB-, the lowest rating above junk (outlook stable) because as the rating agency writes, “the economic shock represented by the coronavirus pandemic will lead to a severe recession in Mexico in 2020.”

It gets worse: “the outlook for the public finances is much less favorable than at the time of the last rating review in December 2019.” Fitch expects the general government deficit to widen by around 2.5% of GDP to 4.4% of GDP, higher than implied by the most recent budget review, with little scope for consolidation in 2021. Sensitivity of revenues to changes in the growth rate is comparatively limited given the low non-oil tax take but more serious damage to the tax base is possible if the current one month lockdown is prolonged or subsequently re-imposed.

In short, Mexico is now caught in a perfect storm: on one hand the economy is collapsing and desperatly in need of more fiscal stimulus; on the other any new debt issued to fund this stimulus will immediately result in a junk rating causing even more pain for the country.

The Mexican peso tumbled in kneejerk reaction, with the USDMXN spiking as much as 0.8% on the downgrade that sets the stage for Mexico to be kicked out of all non-junk mandates.

The full report is below:

Fitch Downgrades Mexico to ‘BBB-‘; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings – New York – 15 Apr 2020: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Mexico’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘BBB’. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The economic shock represented by the coronavirus pandemic will lead to a severe recession in Mexico in 2020. A recovery starting in 2H20 will likely be held back by the same factors that have hampered recent economic performance, which has lagged rating and income level peers. These include a previously noted deterioration in the business climate in certain sectors – notwithstanding examples of cooperation with the private sector in areas such as developing infrastructure – and a perceived erosion of institutional strength in the regulatory framework. Even in the absence of a debt-financed fiscal response to the economic recession, general government debt/GDP is likely to jump by at least 6pp of GDP to almost 50%, the highest since the 1980s. Consolidating public finances once the crisis is over and returning debt/GDP to a sustainable path will prove challenging in Fitch’s view. At the same time, the credible monetary policy framework built around a flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting remains a rating strength and will help the economy absorb the external shock, while minimizing current account external imbalances.

In line with its April 2nd Global Economic Outlook update, Fitch expects the economy to contract by at least 4% in 2020, with a steep fall in 1H followed by the start of a sequential recovery in 2H, but given the nature of the crisis there is a higher than usual level of uncertainty around our forecasts, and the balance of risks is firmly to the downside. Underlining the depth of the shock, which has yet to be fully reflected in published economic data, Mexico lost 130,500 formal sector jobs in March, equivalent to more than one-third of jobs created in 2019, while automotive output contracted 24.6% yoy. Trade will be highly disrupted and will contract steeply in 2020, although net trade is likely to make a positive contribution as imports fall more heavily than exports.

The extent of the economic contraction and scope for recovery starting 2H20 will be dictated by prospects in the U.S., Mexico’s main trading partner, as well as the duration of the virus shock domestically. Mexico’s official projections are based on a domestic lockdown lasting until early May, but this may be extended, or relaxed more gradually. The absence to date of a sizeable fiscal response to support consumption, by comparison with other rating peers in the region, reflects a desire to minimize fiscal imbalances but may delay the recovery. A recovery to full year 2.1% growth in 2021 would imply real output levels remaining well below current GDP.

Moreover, the factors that held back investment prior to the crisis, which in Fitch’s view include relatively weak governance and ad hoc government policy interventions, are likely to persist. While the macro policy framework remains intact, microeconomic policy interventions in a range of sectors have damaged the investment climate. Real GDP contracted by 0.1% in 2019, driven by a 5% fall in gross fixed investment, with no discernible recovery in 1Q20 before the crisis hit, as investment declined further.

On the positive side, Fitch would expect trade to help the economy recover, based on Mexico’s openness and strategic place in the North American supply chain. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is scheduled to come into force at mid-year, relieving uncertainty which had prevailed since late 2016. Outcomes from the coronavirus pandemic that lead to U.S. businesses reducing dependence on China, which was already an administration policy goal, could support investment prospects over the medium term. Additionally, the treaty itself represents a long-term commitment on the Mexican side to maintain a market-oriented economic stance and work constructively with foreign investors in a way that limits downside risks to policy orientation.

The outlook for the public finances is much less favorable than at the time of the last rating review in December 2019. Fitch expects the general government deficit to widen by around 2.5pp of GDP to 4.4% of GDP, higher than implied by the most recent budget review, with little scope for consolidation in 2021. Sensitivity of revenues to changes in the growth rate is comparatively limited given the low non-oil tax take but more serious damage to the tax base is possible if the current one month lockdown is prolonged or subsequently re-imposed.

In keeping with the spirit of fiscal rules that have sought to avoid increasing borrowing at the federal level, and which have kept general government debt/GDP relatively stable, the government plans to fund higher deficits in 2020 without extra borrowing, by tapping the FEIP (budget revenue stabilization fund), although this would deplete the fund to approximately 20% of its current value. A presidential decree also allowed the government to tap a range of other trust funds for financing, which hold up to 3% of GDP. Most federal government oil income is hedged at the budget assumption price of USD49/b for the Mexican mix, cushioning federal finances from the direct impact of lower oil prices. Oil income, which makes up around 10% of federal budget income, will likely remain under pressure in 2021, according to Fitch’s oil price assumption. Long-standing strengths of Mexico’s public finances, including deep and developed domestic capital markets, continue to support the ratings.

However, there are downside risks to our fiscal forecasts, as Mexico may increase spending by more than budgeted to counteract the effect of the coronavirus and public health measures on the economy, which in Fitch’s view is likely to contract by more than the 2.9% assumed in the government’s April budget revision. Leaving aside measures to bring forward spending, the direct fiscal policy response has been relatively limited compared with other countries in the region. In April, the finance ministry re-allocated spending and unveiled around 0.2% of GDP in lending by development banks and funding for guarantees. Congress has voted to set up a fund worth up to 0.7% of GDP to finance health spending.

The contingent liability represented by the debt of state oil company Pemex, which totals USD105 billion or 9% of GDP, remains a key risk factor, particularly in view of the sharp fall in oil prices and the widening discount of prices to global benchmarks, but the impact of Pemex’s worsening financial position on the sovereign credit profile was largely anticipated in our previous (June 2019) sovereign rating action on Mexico. While the company’s income will decline, it will continue to invest in new development capacity and in priority projects, increasing its financing needs. The government plans to bring forward a tax rate cut scheduled for 2021 that would lower the federal government tax take by around MXN65 billion or 0.25% of GDP. Pemex production was unchanged yoy in February after sustained declines, but Mexico recently agreed with the OPEC+ group to temporarily cut output by 100,000b/d from a baseline of 1.75mb/d, above current production. Extended over a year, this would represent a loss of federal government income equivalent to 0.2% of GDP compared with the assumptions in the 2020 budget.

The Banco de Mexico rapidly cut interest rates (and is likely to cut further through 2020) as well as injecting liquidity in both foreign and local currency into the banking system. The peso has depreciated sharply in line with other major EM currencies since the onset of the crisis. Deflationary impacts of the fall in oil prices and shock to demand are likely to counteract upward pressure on prices from exchange rate depreciation. Portfolio capital outflows have risen sharply, but the policy framework has absorbed a rise in demand for foreign currency. A swap line from the Federal Reserve enables the Banco de Mexico to offer three-month foreign currency loans to banks. Reserves remain intact and sizeable at USD185 billion, or more than twice Mexico’s gross external financing needs including short-term external debt. Mexico’s current account will remain close to balance. Mexico renewed access in November to the IMF Flexible Credit Line worth USD61 billion, which can be used for balance of payments support.

ESG – Governance: Mexico has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of 5 for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as is the case for all sovereigns. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Mexico has a medium WBGI ranking at 38th, reflecting a recent track record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate institutional capacity, and established rule of law. Corruption is relatively high, as measured by the WBGI, and has been on an increasing trend, although the present administration has introduced measures focused on combating corruption.

END

Thailand/Coronavirus

A  medical examiner was not careful and he contacted the coronavirus and died. This is why China is cremating all of coronavirus victims

(zerohedge)

World War Z? Dead Patient Infects Medical Examiner With COVID-19

It should now make sense why China was so adamant in cremating bodies as the fast-spreading virus terrorized Wuhan earlier this year. That is because, a new report published on April 11 says a medical examiner recently passed away after contracting COVID-19 from a corpse.

The incident took place in Bangkok, Thailand, at an unknown date, when a medical worker was infected with the virus after conducting tests on a COVID-19 corpse, the study said, which was recently published in the Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine.

The death of the medical examiner “is the first report on COVID-19 infection and death among medical personnel in a Forensic Medicine unit,” according to the authors.

Authors Won Sriwijitalai and Viroj Wiwanitkit wrote in the journal that forensic medical professionals must wear a “protective suit, gloves, goggles, a cap, and a mask” while operating on COVID-19 corpses.

“There is a low chance of forensic medicine professionals coming into contact with infected patients, but they can have contact with biological samples and corpses,” they explained. 

The authors also suggested that the same disinfection protocols used in operating rooms must be applied to forensic units.

In the US, the dead are piling up at hospitals across the country. By Wednesday morning (April 14), total COVID-19 deaths have topped nearly 26,000 – leaving morgue storage capacity at many hospitals overflowing with bodies. Refrigerated trailers have been called in to increase storage at some facilities, specifically in New York City and Detroit.

And maybe there are some uncanny parallels of today’s COVID-19 pandemic and with the 2013 movie “World War Z”…

END

CANADA

The Canadian meat industry is now in trouble as they are suffering supply problems

(zerohedge)

Canadian Meat Industry Warns Of “Immediate And Drastic” Impact To Supply

We have been covering the impact of coronavirus on meat processing facilities in the U.S. and now it looks as though Canada is feeling the shockwaves as well. 

The country’s supply chain could come under pressure as industry leaders in Canada have warned of “immediate and drastic” effects from the closures of key North American meat processing facilities, according to CTV.

And in Canada, a number of facilities have been reduced, including one Cargill plant in Alberta where dozens of employees have tested positive for coronavirus. 

Michelle McMullen, communications manager at the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association, said: “This single facility represents just over one-third of Canada’s total processing capability, so the impacts to the Canadian beef industry are expected to be immediate and drastic.”

 

CCA president Bob Lowe said North American production has been “severely limited” and has called on the Canadian government to implement measures to help out Canadian farmers. “The Canadian beef industry is facing a period of extraordinary uncertainty,” he said.

He continued: “Existing programs do not address the particular threats we are facing and in fact fall quite short. These are challenging times for all Canadians; it is together that we can implement solutions to ensure healthy and affordable food continues to be readily available.”

Recall, just yesterday we wrote about the biggest pork producer in the U.S., Smithfield, who shuttered one of its largest factories after a coronavirus outbreak.

Smithfield also issued a warning of its own, stating that meat supplies are “perilously close to the edge of shortfalls”.

The company shut down its Sioux Falls, SD plant, which accounts for 4% to 5% of U.S. production. The news comes after more than 200 cases of Covid-19 were reported among employees.

Photo: BBG
Smithfield’s Chief Executive Officer Ken Sullivan said: “The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply. It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running.”

Smithfield had planned on closing their plant for 3 days, but South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem asked them to extend the closure to 14 days.

You can watch CTV’s report on the Canadian meat industry here:

 
 END
CORONAVIRUS MUTATION
This is deadly

Scientists Discover Alarming Coronavirus Mutation That Could Render Vaccine Useless

The prospect that SARS-CoV-2, the “novel” coronavirus responsible for causing the illness COVID-19, might be mutating and evolving as it spreads across the globe has been such a terrifying prospect for the scientific community, that medical experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci seem to avoid even engaging on the topic.

Asked about the possibility of viral mutation during one of the White House’s inaugural task force press briefings, Dr. Fauci assured the public that scientists have found “no evidence” of any concerning mutations, though the prospect that a mutated version of the virus might return during next year’s flu season has kept some virologists up at night with nightmares about needing to start the vaccine clock from zero.

The problem is that vaccines often aren’t as effective against viruses that mutate, like the flu does every season (that’s why you need to keep getting that flu shot year after year).  And now, a new scientific paper that – like most of the coronavirus research being cited in the press – has yet to be peer reviewed claims to have identified a mutation in a sample of the virus collected in India that could create serious problems for researchers working on a vaccine.

Monitoring the mutation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for the development of effective approaches to contain the 21 pathogen. By analyzing 106 SARS-CoV-2 and 39 SARS genome sequences, we provided direct genetic evidence that 22 SARS-CoV-2 has a much lower mutation rate than SARS. Minimum Evolution phylogeny analysis revealed the putative original status of SARS-CoV-2 and the early-stage spread history. The discrepant phylogenies for the spike protein and it receptor binding domain proved a previously reported structural rearrangement prior to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Despite that, we found the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 is particularly more conserved, we identified a mutation that leads to weaker receptor binding capability, which concerns a SARS-CoV-2 sample collected on 27th January 2020 from India. This represents the first report of a significant SARS-CoV-2 mutant, and raises the alarm that the ongoing vaccine Development may become futile in future epidemic if more mutations were identified.

The ominous discovery underscores how the virus’s destructive potential will likely be tied to the vagaries of viral evolution.

Fortunately, the team appeared to confirm an earlier finding by a team of researchers in Italy that the virus “has a much lower mutation rate and genetic diversity” than SARS, which means that a vaccine will likely be able to treat wide swaths of people before becoming ineffective as the virus changes and evolves.

However, this new finding shows that it’s not just the speed of the mutation that matters, but the specific nature of the mutations, when scientists are developing a vaccine.

Experts say that a vaccine could take up to 2 years to develop, and some city officials have warned that life likely won’t return completely back to normal until a vaccine is ready for mass production. But a mutation could throw a wrench in this process, transforming the process of developing a workable vaccine into a “cat and mouse” game – or at the very least lengthen the time it takes for the initial vaccine to be developed.

 

As of Thursday morning, more than 2 million patients have tested positive for the virus around the world, while nearly 140k have died of the illness (with many more likely uncounted).

end
Michael Every…

Rabobank: “If We Don’t Get The Reopening Just Right We Can Start The Clock To The Second Infection Wave”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Break-out > Lockdown > Break-up

As mentioned yesterday, with recognition that virus may have peaked we see that momentum continues to build to try to get us back to normal. We still have extensions of the lockdown being rolled out in many locations – but we can see what is going to happen next: Break-out > Lockdown > Break-up. Austria was already planning to reopen some elements of the economy anyway, and some Danish schools were to go back; now some German schools will restart on 4 May, as will hairdressers and smaller shops (which are surely the kinds hardest to implement social distancing in). Moreover, in the US we saw a group of protesters surround the state Capitol to demand that Michigan be reopened for business, while Pennsylvania’s senate over-ruled their governor to demand the partially reopening of that state. President Trump is also about to announce an easing of stay-at-home rules today, apparently.

Clearly, lockdowns destroy the economy. That much will be obvious from Q2 GDP data, with the collapse in US industrial production and the Empire PMI yesterday, and the simultaneous nose-dive in retail sales despite panic buying, all making that abundantly clear. The Fed Beige Book also helpfully underlined that “Economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions….all districts reported highly uncertain outlooks among business contacts, with most expecting conditions to worsen in the next several months.” Perhaps even tomorrow’s Q1 GDP data in China will show the same – although would one want to bank on that?

However, we can see three things that will happen next after what happens next on re-opening:

  1. #1 A push-and-pull between different regions and different authorities over how fast and where and when to re-open. This could be federal-state or regional, or between health and finance ministries. There is no clear consensus of what is best to do now from various perspectives. On one level local autonomy is always best – but it adds to the already-confusing patchwork of varying virus responses and means neither full national nor international economic connectivity can return as before COVID-19.
  2. #2 Even after re-opening, normal life is not going to be normal as we knew it. New Zealand’s Prime Minister has made that clear (as has the RBNZ Governor not ruling out negative rates even as the worst of the virus may perhaps be behind the country). Imagine you are a restaurant with the tight margins they always have: how do you survive with a scared public staying at home and social distancing measures meaning just one person per table? The economic just aren’t viable. The same is true for cinemas nobody goes to; hotels with low or zero occupancy; and for planes that will need to have three or four people per row, maximum, and two empty rows between occupied ones to comply with social distancing even when they can fly again: how much is that going to push flying out of the price-range of a far weaker household sector? Of course, for larger firms perhaps this does not matter as in this crisis we have already seen that making money, or prudently putting money aside for a rainy day, no longer matters: having friends at the central bank does. Or serving a national security interest – in which regard the US is suggesting it will pay shale oil producers to keep the stuff in the ground. It’s not as if we haven’t seen the same with agriculture – think of the farmer in Catch-22 who got rich “not growing alfalfa”. Ironically, in this respect the pre- and post-COVID economies may be similar, in that there can be real money in not producing things.
  3. #3 Crucially, if we don’t get this re-opening just right then many voice warn we can start the clock until the second wave of virus infections hits. True, we have now built up larger healthcare capacity. Yet for a struggling business the effort to re-open, only to then have to close again, may prove both economically and psychologically disastrous – just as it was the second wave of Spanish Flu in 1919 that proved the most deadly to those who caught it.

Maybe, and it’s only a maybe, markets are starting to actually do some actual thinking in this regard–briefly–given the risk-off tone today. The kind of “1, 2, 3” scenario above is bad for most everyone and everything, but arguably for equities and emerging markets the most. As such it’s no surprise we see MXN and THB under pressure again, Mexico most so after its sovereign rating was downgraded to one notch above junk. Even AUD could not rally today on the latest in a long line of fantastical unemployment reports, where March jobs rose 5.9K vs. -30K expected and unemployment fell two ticks from 5.4% to 5.2% (the claim is that this is pre-COVID, in which case one has to ask how many days of March the survey actually covers?

end

AIRLINES //CORONAVIRUS

United and just about all airlines essentially see zero demand and no recovery on the horizon

(zerohedge

Airlines Plunge After United Sees”Essentially Zero” Demand, No Recovery

The mini bounce after US airlines reached a bailout deal on Tuesday with the US Treasury lasted exactly one day, and on Thursday US airlines stocks sank after United Airlines warned that travel demand was “essentially zero,” and showed no signs of in the near term.

The US carrier warned its employees of bleak times and potential long-term payroll cuts despite billions of dollars in U.S. taxpayer assistance, saying the outlook for travel demand will remain depressed into next year. In response to the collapse in demand, United said it will further cut its flight schedule in May to roughly 10% of the capacity it had planned at the start of 2020, and similar cuts are in store for June, said Chief Executive Officer Oscar Munoz and President Scott Kirby. As an example of the shortfalls, the carrier will fly fewer people during all of next month than on a single day in May 2019.

Travel demand is essentially zero and shows no sign of improving in the near term,” Munoz and Kirby wrote in a message to employees late Wednesday. “While we have not yet finalized changes to our schedule for July and August, we expect demand to remain suppressed for the remainder of 2020 and likely into next year.”

As Bloomberg adds, “the dire tone underscored the depth of the crisis facing airlines as the Covid-19 pandemic and government travel restrictions force people to stay home.” Rescue funds contained in the U.S. stimulus package signed into law last month will help airlines pay employees while obliging them not to cut jobs through Sept. 30. But United signaled that even with the bailout funds – many of which are in the form of grants – deep cost reductions will be necessary for the company to survive. Translation: we will need a bigger bailout.

As a reminder, United will collect about $5 billion from the government in grants and a low-interest loan, part of $25 billion in airline assistance being doled out by the U.S. Treasury. Carriers are also in line for $25 billion in additional loans as part of the overall economic rescue plan of about $2 trillion.

“The challenging economic outlook means we have some tough decisions ahead as we plan for our airline, and our overall workforce, to be smaller than it is today, starting as early as October 1,” Munoz and Kirby said.

Meanwhile, more than 20,000 United employees have accepted voluntary leave and separation programs that the company has offered in recent weeks as it seeks to reduce labor expenses. The Chicago-based airline, which had a workforce of about 95,000 at the start of the year, said it would renew efforts to interest more workers in the programs.

“The challenge that lies ahead for United is bigger than any we have faced in our proud 94-year history,” Munoz and Kirby said. “We are committed to being as direct and as transparent as possible with you about the decisions that lay ahead and what impact they will have on our business and on you.”

Kirby assumes the role of CEO on May 20, when Munoz becomes becoming executive chairman.

Late on Wednesday, American Airlines released a somewhat more upbeat video late Wednesday in which CEO Doug Parker told employees that the almost $11 billion the carrier expects to receive in U.S. grants and loans should help get the company through the crisis.

“It feels strange and even a little frightening when we don’t have as many people to care for as we’re used to,” Parker said. “But this will pass and when it does, the American team will be ready to safely care for our customers.”

We’ll timestamp that and revisit in one month.

Following the United warning, the S&P Supercomposite Airlines Industry Index dropped as much as 7.6%, with UAL, AAL, HA, ALK, DAL the biggest decliners.

The index is down 57% since mid-February when the market meltdown in the U.S. took hold; the SPX is down about 18% over the same period.

7. OIL ISSUES

The uSA is mulling over the idea of paying shale drillers billions of dollars to leave the oil in the ground and not drill

(zerohedge)

US May Pay Shale Drillers Billions To Leave Oil In The Ground

If one listened to the US president, or any other member of OPEC+ in the past few days, this weekend’s history production cut deal (which we said was not nearly enough to offset the plunge in global demand), would have been sufficient to push the price of oil by $10/per barrel or more. Instead, after spiking last Thursday as high as $36 as triggerhappy algos were fooled by OPEC+ jawboning, Brent is down as much as 25% in the past 4 days.

Meanwhile, realizing that the US has become ground zero for excess oil production, and is unwilling – or unable – to cut output, thus shooting itself in the foot, on Tuesday Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, argued that Texas can lead in producing a “real” U.S. oil production cut to save the shale industry, and called for the state to take action to force companies to hold back their production for the first time since 1973.

Alas, with billions of junk bonds at stake and a lot of private equity vested interests assuring that the “spice flows” that is unlikely to happen. So on Wednesday, with US producers seemingly at an impasse and with Trump terrified that a wave of Texas defaults could doom his reelection chances as millions of shale workers are out of a job, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was considering paying U.S. oil producers to leave crude in the ground to help alleviate a glut that has caused prices to plummet and pushed some drillers into bankruptcy.

According to the report, the Energy Department has drafted a plan to compensate companies for sitting on as much as 365 million barrels worth of oil reserves and counting it as part of the U.S. government’s emergency stockpile. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose fractionally, about 20 cents to $20.42, on the news.

Unlike previous ideas float by the administration which included ordering forced production shutdowns, this plan is actually workable as federal law gives the Energy Department authority to set aside as much as 1 billion barrels of oil for emergencies – without dictating where they should go. That creates a legal opening for storing crude outside the government’s existing reserve and even blocking its extraction in the first place, according to Bloomberg.

There is just one problem: money, lots of it, and it will have to be paid to shale companies which are already on the verge of default which means that this would be seen as yet another industry bailout. Indeed, as Bloomberg explains, the keep-it-in-the-ground plan, which would require billions of dollars in appropriations from Congress, could be unprecedented and reflects a Trump administration push to help domestic drillers battered by a surge of oil production.

Of course, since “billions of dollars” would be headed to the shale sector, we doubt democrats would be excited unless of course similar billions of dollars were directed at illegal aliens or some other progressive ideal.

The effort comes after President Donald Trump helped broker a deal to cut global crude production and help rescue oil markets from a pandemic-fueled collapse. However oil demand has sunk even further, as lockdowns around the world paralyze air and ground travel. While the U.S. government doesn’t control oil production, Trump has said domestic output will automatically shrink due to market forces.

* * *

 

Meanwhile, with every day of delays a historic day of reckoning comes closer: the moment when storage runs out. Analysts expect storage tanks to fill by summer, with some predicting as soon as May. Whenever that happens, oil producers with no place to put their crude would be forced to halt production and lay offworkers. Some are already idling drilling rigs and stowing excess supplies in rail cars, while pipeline operators are reversing flows to transport crude to underused storage sites. President Donald Trump on April 3 asked his energy secretary to “check out other areas where you can store oil,” and look for places “bigger than what we have now.”

To delay the moment storage tanks are full, the Energy Department is discussing other ideas, including stashing oil in floating tankers, unused refinery storage tanks and underground salt caverns, the officials said. But those approaches might take too long to help as U.S. crude inventories build toward a crisis point.

The quicker solution would be to effectively reward drillers for taking a timeout. Under the approach being developed by the Energy Department, the agency would contract with companies to delay production of proven oil reserves for several years, if not indefinitely. When that crude is finally extracted and sold, the proceeds would go to the Treasury. Companies would be selected through an auction, with the government picking the lowest-price bidders.

And, as Bloomberg notes, Energy Department officials developed the plan after affirming they had legal authority for the move and studying alternatives. According to senior administration officials the effort would benefit independent oil companies across the U.S., and it would be focused on sites that are either producing today or those with infrastructure in place so they could quickly yield oil.

The Energy Department already moved to sop up some excess crude by renting out space in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for private storage. The agency said Tuesday it is in negotiations with nine companies to store some 23 million barrels of crude in the underground salt caverns that make up the emergency stockpile. And it expects to offer more space in the reserve in coming weeks.

That said, the probability of this plan passing Congress is slim to none: an earlier administration proposal to spend $3 billion buying U.S. oil for the strategic reserve was blocked in Congress, as Democrats sought to offset the purchase with investments on clean energy. Similar opposition will likely derail the Trump administration’s new plan too. Democratic leaders have said they oppose anything that smacks of a “big oil bailout”, although what they really mean is that they want a mirror-image bailout for their own causes. Worse, while environmentalists have favored a “keep-it-in-the-ground” approach to phasing out fossil fuel production, Trump’s venture is aimed at sustaining the industry – not ending it.

The price tag? With some 635 million barrels already socked away inside underground salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana, the government has authority to snap up 365 million more as long as Congress doles out money for the transaction. At current prices it could cost at least $7 billion.

Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said in an interview on Bloomberg TV this week that he would “be working closely with Congress” on a possible storage expansion, adding that “It’s something that the Congress should consider. They will of course make the ultimate decision as to whether or not they want to pursue that. But we’re going to make some I think very strong and credible arguments why additional storage capacity is important to the country.”

At today’s low prices, the U.S. government could fare well on the deal. Buying 365 million barrels at the current price of $19.87 a barrel – and selling at the 2019 average price of $57.04 would yield more than $13 billion profit. Even selling at just $30 a barrel could net nearly $4 billion, minus any transport and holding costs. It’s an idea not lost on Trump, who in an April 3 meeting with oil executives wondered why everyone wasn’t socking away cheap crude to sell later.

“At these prices,” Trump mused, “you would think you’d want to fill up every cavity that we have in this country.”

END

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0879 DOWN .0025 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.66 UP 0.053 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2487   DOWN   0.0031  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4109 DOWN .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 25 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0879 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 8.76 POINTS OR 0.31% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 138.89 POINTS OR 0.58%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,01%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 138.89 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.76 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.01% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 259.89  POINTS OR 1.33%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1734.60

silver:$15.53-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.60% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.23 DOWN 5  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.16 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.96% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.82%//DOWN 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,84 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 102 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.47% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.31% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0839  DOWN     .0063 or 63 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.69 UP .067 OR YEN DOWN 7  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2428 DOWN .0090 POUND DOWN 90  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 33 basis points to 1.4150

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0799    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0851  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.9465 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.61 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.22 down 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.18 UP 71  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 45.17 OR  0.81%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 54.72 POINTS OR .53%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 7.79 POINTS 0.18%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 47.10 POINTS or 0.69%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 124.42 POINTS OR 0.74%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 20.10 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 27.42 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    74.27  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.58 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 58 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  19.69//

 

 

BRENT :  28.11

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.61….. plus 3 basis points

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.20.. plus  7 basis points..

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0840 ( DOWN 68   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.77 UP 150 (YEN DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 100.04 UP 58 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2450 DOWN 68  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.9529

 

 

the Russian rouble 74.27   UP 0.57 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 57 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4115 UP 4 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.47%

 

The Dow closed UP 33.33 POINTS OR 0.14%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 133.19 POINTS OR 1.66%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  39.98 CLOSED DOWN .86

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.134%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS: 1.068

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Surge On Soaring Unemployment For 4th Week In A Row

S&P is up 255.4 point cumulatively each Thursday in the past 4 weeks; over the same period we have lost 22.03 million jobs.

Consumer Comfort has collapsed back below when Trump was elected

Source: Bloomberg

Overall macro-economic data has never disappointed and fallen this fast…

Source: Bloomberg

Earnings expectations are collapsing…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which explains why Nasdaq 100 just went green year-to-date… (spot the odd one out)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, Nasdaq is up over 4%, Small Caps are down almost 7%…

Which leaves the Nasdaq 100 just shy of its richest relative to small caps ever…

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise also noted that the pace of NDX outperformance over the last three months has “dotcom bubble” written all over it. Maybe it can continue indefinitely and your favorite friendly tech behemoth can keep rallying, making money and avoiding scrutiny over antitrust issues or aggressive tax avoidance. But the only thing more certain than the difficulty of timing the end of parabolic price action is that the end is coming — sooner or later.

The Dow was once again unable to hold above its 50% retracement…

As FANG stocks hit a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Put another way…

Over the last four weeks, on days the initial jobless claims data has been released and Americans have lost over 22 million jobs, the S&P 500 has actually rallied (+6.2%, +2.3%, +1.4%, and +0.6%), and Nasdaq 100 (+5.72%, +1.99%, +0.11%, and +2.0%).

Once again…

As stocks live on free Fed money as Americans die…

Source: Bloomberg

And The Virus Fear trade refuses to ease up…

Source: Bloomberg

HY and IG bond prices continue to drop lower, despite The Fed’s support…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were mixed on the day with the short-end flat but longer-end yields tumbled once again…

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y back below 60bps intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve has flattened dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

And as yields tumbled and flattened, so did bank stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar extended yesterday’s big gains back to one week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Crytpos were also bid today led by Ethereum…

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

Source: Bloomberg

The premium between spot and futures gold prices compressed today…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices drifted lower once again with WTI back below $20…

Finally, we note that the prospect of the steepest global recession in almost a century and a massive currency-debasing debt buildup are driving investors into gold exchange-traded funds in startling numbers. The total stash of SPDR Gold Trust Holdings, the world’s largest bullion-backed fund, expanded for a 10th straight session on Tuesday, tying the record streak set in June 2016. All told, global holdings of gold-backed ETFs expanded for a 17th session (out of 18) to a fresh all-time high.

Source: Bloomberg

And the US Mint just closed due to COVID fears as gold coin demand nears a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s this – as Bloomberg notes, U.S. stocks are out of step with one of most-watched segments of the yield curve by the most in 14 years.

Source: Bloomberg

The rebound in the S&P 500 over the past month has pushed the correlation with the 3m10y curve to the most negative since 2006. That suggests shares are ignoring signals about the economy, implying further upside may be capped.

 

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Another 5.2 million jobless claims: total in the month; 22 million

(zerohedge)

22 Million Jobless Claims In 1 Month: Last 4 Weeks Erase All Jobs Created Since The Great Recession

In the last week 5.245 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time.

Source: Bloomberg

This level comes in right around Goldman’s estimate…

That brings the four-week total to 22.025, which is over 10 times the prior worst four-week period in the last 50-plus years.

And of course, last week’s “initial” claims and this week’s “continuing” claims… the highest level of continuing claims ever

Source: Bloomberg

As Deutsche Bank’s Brett Ryan notes,

“This record surge in claims should push the unemployment rate up to 17% in the April data, a new post-World War II high.”

And in fact, a new study of high-frequency labor market data suggests the unemployment rate may already have topped 20%…

Although the researchers do note, over half of the unemployed reported being temporarily laid off, suggesting that many could return to work quickly if conditions improve.

However, what is most disturbing is that in the last four weeks, more Americans have filed for unemployment than jobs gained during the last decade since the end of the Great Recession… (22.13 million gained in a decade, 22.025 million lost in 4 weeks)

Finally, perhaps some good news, the latest Google Trends data also suggest that interest in filing claims waned somewhat.

Worse still, the final numbers will likely be worsened due to the bailout itself: as a reminder, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, passed on March 27, could contribute to new records being reached in coming weeks as it increases eligibility for jobless claims to self-employed and gig workers, extends the maximum number of weeks that one can receive benefits, and provides an additional $600 per week until July 31. A recent WSJ article noted that this has created incentives for some businesses to temporarily furlough their employees, knowing that they will be covered financially as the economy is shutdown. Meanwhile, those making below $50k will generally be made whole and possibly be better off on unemployment benefits.

Finally, it is notable, we have lost 710 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19 (30,985).

Was it worth it?

END

Housing starts collapse and this is before the lockdown

(zerohedge)

Housing Starts Collapse By Most In 36 Years

Carnage in homebuilder sentiment following a record collapse in homebuyer sentiment means it really should not be a total surprise to see Housing Starts crashed 22.3% MoM (the biggest drop since 1984). Building Permits also plunged, but by a lower amount, down 6.8% MoM.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Single-family starts fell to 856k from 1,037K SAAR, a 17.5 drop, while multifamily starts crashed 32.1% to just 347K, the lowest since July, from 511K in February.

Permits were ugly too, although here multi-family units actually rose 5.2% to 423K, while it was single family that tumbled to 884K from 1,005K, a 12% drop.

And this is before the more national lockdowns came into effect!

end
Philly Fed crashes as expected by the most in 40 years(zerohedge)

Philly Fed Collapses By Most Ever To 40 Year Lows

Philly Fed joined the rest of the regional Fed surveys in an utter bloodbath.

Against expectations of a -32.0 print, Philly Fed crashed to -56.6 – the lowest since 1980 and the biggest 2-month drop in history…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood it’s ugly:

  • April prices paid fell to -9.3 vs 4.8
  • New orders fell to -70.9 vs -15.5
  • Employment fell to -46.7 vs 4.1
  • Shipments fell to -74.1 vs 0.2
  • Delivery time rose to 4.1 vs -9.1
  • Inventories fell to -10.2 vs 1.7
  • Prices received fell to -10.6 vs 6.8
  • Unfilled orders fell to -13.5 vs -7.4
  • Average workweek fell to -54.5 vs 0.5

Philly joins Dallas and New York in its slump…

Bear in mind that the people surveyed in Philadelphia in February were the most exuberant since Fed 2017… and now they are the most pessimistic in 40 years!?? What use are these ‘soft’ surveys?

 

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Detroit Michigan

Body bags piled up in a vacant Detroit hospital rooms

(zerohedge)

Shocking Images Show Body-Bags Piled Up In Vacant Detroit Hospital Rooms

Detroit’s Sinai-Grace Hospital is making headlines this week via a new report from CNN that shows alleged images of body bags stacked inside a vacant room and in refrigerated trucks.

News of the hospital overwhelmed by COVID-19 deaths comes as refrigerated trucks were called in to increase the morgue’s storage capacity in early April.

Brian Taylor, a spokesman for Detroit Medical Center, told Detroit Free Press on Monday that COVID-19 “has caused significantly greater than normal mortality rates in the Detroit community.”

As of Tuesday, 25,635 cases have been confirmed, with 1,602 deaths in the state. Detroit and Wayne County have been the hardest-hit areas of the fast-spreading virus, claiming more than 700 lives.

CNN spoke with several emergency room workers at the hospital who confirmed the hospital system was overwhelmed with virus-related deaths.

Marshall Cohen

@MarshallCohen

THREAD: This is the true human cost of that you don’t see on TV very often. CNN obtained photos from ER staff at a Detroit hospital, showing bodies pilled up in vacant spaces because the morgue was full. Nearly 1,500 people have died in Michigan, and 23,000 nationwide.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Two sources said bodies were stored in at least one room that was meant as sleeping quarters for staff. The overflow of bodies was mostly due to morgue capacity was full.

“All I know is we ran out of beds to keep our patients on so we couldn’t spare any for the bodies,” said one ER worker, who saw the bodies stacked up in the room. 

The sources said the bodies were stored in the vacant room earlier this month because refrigerated trucks to expand the morgue’s storage capacity had yet to arrive.

“It was because we hadn’t gotten our outside freezers yet, so those rooms had beds and the morgue people don’t work overnight,” said the ER worker.

On Saturday, CNN visited the hospital and discovered five refrigerated trucks in the parking lot of the hospital. A source snapped a picture from inside one of the trailers with “body bags” everywhere.

 

Bodies piled up in a refrigerated truck at Sinai-Grace Hospital in Detroit. h/t CNN source 

Detroit Free Press said other hospital systems in the area had deployed refrigerated trucks to store bodies.

 

Refrigerated trucks at Wayne County Medical Examiner’s office in Detroit. h/t Detroit Free Press

Besides Detroit, New York City hospitals ordered 45 refrigerated trucks. And then in early April, a leaked video revealed the gruesome scene of body bags piled up at the Lenox Hill Hospital in Manhattan’s Upper East Side.

 

Bodies on the floor at Lenox Hill Hospital in NYC

America’s hospital system appears to have been pushed to the limits as the pandemic has so far infected 582,634 people and resulted in 23,649 deaths. It remains to be seen if hospital systems will order more refrigerated trucks as Morgan Stanley is now predicting the second wave of the virus could strike around November/December.

end
Now Neiman Marcus is set to file for bankruptcy
(zero hedge)

First JC Penney, Now Neiman Marcus Set To File For Bankruptcy

Yesterday we reported that ancient retail icon and anchor tenant at malls everywhere, JC Penney, was finally preparing to call it a day, and was set to file for bankruptcy protection, in the process ending lease payments and putting the thousands of malls in which it had an outlet in cash flow peril. A few hours later, rhe Texas-based department store chain disclosed in an SEC filing that it will not pay $12MM to bondholders that had been due. And while under the terms of the bond, due in 2036, the retailer has a 30 day grace period to make the payment before it is deemed to have defaulted, entering the grace period is usually a warning to customers and business partners – and especially vendors who immediately go Cash on Delivery – that a Chapter 11 filing is imminent.

While JC Penney’s default was long coming – not least due to the collapse in mall foot traffic long before the covid-crisis and the company’s untenable debt load which led to several near-death experiences in the past decade – it was the complete collapse in clothing store sales that was the tipping point. According to the Census Bureau, clothing store sales crashed more than 50% in March, an apocalyptic collapse for any levered retailer.

Indeed, JC Penney is just the beginning and on Thursday morning, Reuters reported that another mall anchor icon, luxury retaeiler Neiman Marcus Group, has also skipped a bond payment week to Marble Ridge Capital LP, according to a letter from the hedge fund to the luxury department store retailer sent Thursday, setting the heavily indebted chain on a path toward bankruptcy.

This confirms a recent report from Reuters according to which Neiman Marcus was preparing to file for bankruptcy. As Reuters adds, a Neiman bankruptcy filing would likely be contentious. A trustee for some of the company’s bondholders, including Marble Ridge, sued Neiman last year, claiming the company and its owners robbed investors of the value of luxury e-commerce site MyTheresa in the earlier debt restructuring.

The biggest loser from this waterfall of default which will collapse all cash flow payments from these massive retail giants, is the mall sector, which as a reminder was the target of the “Big Short 2” via the CMBX Series 6 BBB- index, and which plunged in late March making all those – such as Carl Icahn 0 who had bet on the collapse of that icon of US life, malls, very rich…

… and in fact, unlike the broader market which has staged a remarkable rebound in recent weeks, the mall-heavy Series 6 CMBX tranche continues to slide, and was just shy of all time lows at last check, which is a vivid reminder of what price discovery looks like when there is no Fed backstop (for now Powell is not buying deeply impaired CMBX tranches; that may change soon).

Once both JCP and Neiman Marcus file, that’s when the real downhill kicks in.

end
Dead people are receiving this stimulus money
(zerohedge)

Up To $3.4 Billion In Stimulus Money Could Go To Dead People

Who knows how many untold millions of dollars out of the massive $2.2 trillion CARES Act will be sent to dead people? We did the math below.

It is happening. As Republican Congressman from Kentucky Thomas Massie — who it must be recalled was a ‘lone voice in the wilderness’ seeking to torpedo the bill as it added to the national debt and increased Federal Reserve secrecy and power, among other things — ranted on Twitter Wednesday just as some 80 million Americans received their direct deposits: “Ok this is insane, but just the tip of the iceberg.”

Thomas Massie

@RepThomasMassie

Ok this is insane, but just the tip of the iceberg. This is a direct text to me from a friend. I called to confirm this actually just happened.

View image on Twitter

Rep. Massie said he later confirmed “this actually just happened” — stimulus checks are going out to deceased people.

Likely more such stories will inundate the media in the coming days and weeks as more unprecedented federal ‘helicopter money’ is simply booted out the door… who knows where it lands.

Massie followed up by saying the unnamed deceased man’s estate did file his taxes for 2018 following his death. Further, it’s common in such instances of the recently departed that a joint bank account be held in the name of living and non-living people.

As a separate report documenting instances of dead Americans receiving checks indicates: “Actually, stimulus checks are being cut (or money is being deposited into recipient accounts) based on who filed 2019 taxes. And if taxes haven’t yet been filed for last year (the new deadline isn’t until July 15), the Treasury is using 2018 returns.”

“Obviously, that has the potential to expand the pool of deceased Americans who stand to benefit from the law,” the report concludes.

The Sacramento Bee

@sacbee_news

Dead people are getting stimulus checks, and their relatives have no clue what to do https://trib.al/umXVf0O 

Dead people are getting stimulus checks, and their relatives have no clue what to do

“I don’t think that they are supposed to go to the deceased.”

sacbee.com

This certainly isn’t the first time this has happened, but the coronavirus stimulus is unprecedented and massive on a scale before unseen. In 2017 for example, at least 72,000 deceased citizens  received checks under Obama’s long-term economic stimulus program.

Hundreds of people on social media have shared stories of receiving payments for relatives who passed away in 2018 or 2019.

In 2009, more than 89,000 stimulus payments went to people who were either dead or in prison. — FOX affiliate/AP

But consider this: the CDC estimates that just over 2.8 million Americans died in 2017 (the last year data is currently available) – which suggests the possibility that all totaled almost $3.4 billion in stimulus money could go to dead people (assuming each got a check for $1,200 and that their family estates filed taxes).

And this figure doesn’t even account for 2018 through early 2020 deaths.

Scott Gustin

@ScottGustin

Deceased people are receiving stimulus checks today.

My grandmother passed away in 2018 — and $1,200 was deposited in her bank account today.

View image on Twitter
46 people are talking about this

One would assume the US Treasury could have run some minimal data filter programs and attempt to ensure it’s not cutting checks for hundreds of thousands if not millions of deceased Americans, but it’s likely even this minimal protocol was overlooked in the rush to print money and rapidly shovel it to hundreds of millions of Americans.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Judicial Watch in a lawsuit has convinced the Judge, (Lambert) to order Google to provide the backup emails of Hillary.  You will recall that Hillary bleachbit those emails on her main server.

(zerohedge)

Google Subpoenaed For Hillary Clinton Emails Believed To Contain Backup To Records Scrubbed With “Bleachbit”

Google has been ordered to turn over all Hillary Clinton emails from a Gmail account believed to contain backups to communications from her personal server which her IT specialist, Paul Combetta, reportedly scrubbed using BleachBit.

Combetta allegedly used the Google account to transfer Clinton’s emails from a laptop to a server at Platte River Networks, after which BleachBit was used to remove all traces from the device.

On Wednesday, watchdog group Judicial Watch announced that Google had been served with a subpoena seeking all Clinton email from January 21, 2009 until February 1, 2013 from her time at the Obama State Department where she served as Secretary of State.

The Google subpoena comes in a Judicial Watch’s lawsuit that seeks records concerning “talking points or updates on the Benghazi attack” (Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department of State (No. 1:14-cv-01242)). Judicial Watch famously uncovered in 2014 that the “talking points” that provided the basis for Susan Rice’s false statements were created by the Obama White House. This Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit led directly to the disclosure of the Clinton email system in 2015. –Judicial Watch

The issue of Gmail backups was raised during an August, 2019 hearing by US District Court Judge Royce Lamberth, who ordered JW to “shake this tree” and pursue the issue. Lamberth referenced a report released by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) in which he said he had some ‘very troubling information’ about Combetta – who was granted immunity by the Obama Justice Department.

To the point – on March 25, 2015, Combetta had a “conference call with President Clinton’s staff.”  Apparently, in the days following that call, he (Combetta) had an “‘oh shit’ moment” when he realized he had forgotten to wipe the PRN server clean as he had been instructed to do back in December by Cheryl Mills.

Therefore, sometime within the 6 days after a call with “President Clinton’s Staff,” that PRN server was wiped clean using BleachBit despite the subpoena from the House Select Committee on Benghazi received weeks earlier on March 4, 2016. 

Here is a quick summary of the timeline of events:

  • February 2013 – Hillary resigns from State Department
  • Spring 2013 – Hillary aide Monica Hanley backs up Pagliano Server to Apple MacBook and a thumb drive
  • February 2014 – Monica Hanley attempts to upload Hillary email archives to new Platte River Networks (PRN) server but encounters technical issues
  • Early 2014 – Monica Hanley mails Apple MacBook to Combetta to upload Hillary email archives to new PRN server.  Undisclosed PRN Staff Member then uploads Hillary’s emails to a gmail account and then transfers them over to the new PRN server.Combetta deletes most of the emails from gmail but indvertently leaves 940.
  • Early 2014 – Monica Hanley advises Combetta to wipe the Apple MacBook clean after uploading Hillary’s emails to the new PRN server but he forgets to do it
  • Early 2014 – Combetta allegedly mails Apple MacBook back to Clinton and it is promptly lost
  • December 2014 – Hillary delivers 55,000 emails to State Department
  • December 2014 / January 2015 – Heather Samuelson and Cheryl Mills request emails be deleted from their computer using BleachBit
  • December 2014 / January 2015 – “Unknown Clinton staff member” (Combetta) instructs PRN to remove archives of Clinton emails from PRN server
  • March 2, 2015 – NYT releases an article showing that Hillary used a personal email server in violation of State Department rules
  • March 4, 2015 – Hillary receives subpoena from House Select Committee on Benghazi instructing her to preserve and deliver all emails from her personal servers
  • March 25, 2015 – Combetta has a conference call with “President Clinton’s Staff”
  • March 25 – 31, 2015 – Combetta has “oh shit” moment and realizes he forgot to wipe Hillary’s email archive from the PRN server back in Decemberwhich he promptly does using BleachBit despite later admitting he “was aware of the existence of the preservation request and the fact that it meant he should not disturb Clinton’s e-mail data on the PRN server.”
  • June 2016 – FBI discovers that Combetta forgot to erase 940 emails from the gmail account he created to help with the PRN server upload

It will be interesting to see what Google turns over – if anything. Maybe they’ll simply smash their servers with hammers?

end
Obama officials, the FBI etc everybody knew the Steele dossier was Russian disinformation designed to target the Trump campaign
(zerohedge)

Declassified Horowitz Footnotes Show Obama Officials Knew Steele Dossier Was Russian Disinfo Designed To Target Trump

Authored by Sara Carter via SaraACarter.com,

Systemic FBI Effort To Legitimize Steele and Use His Information To Target POTUS

Newly declassified footnotes from Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s December FBI report reveals that senior Obama officials, including members of the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane team knew the dossier compiled by a former British spy during the 2016 election was Russian disinformation to target President Donald Trump.

Further, the partially declassified footnotes reveal that those senior intelligence officials were aware of the disinformation when they included the dossier in the Obama administration’s Intelligence Communities Assessment (ICA).

As important, the footnotes reveal that there had been a request to validate information collected by British spy Christopher Steele as far back as 2015, and that there was concern among members of the FBI and intelligence community about his reliability. Those concerns were brushed aside by members of the Crossfire Hurricane team in their pursuit against the Trump campaign officials, according to sources who spoke to this reporter and the footnotes.

The explosive footnotes were partially declassified and made public Wednesday, after a lengthy review by the Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell’s office. Grenell sent the letter Wednesday releasing the documents to Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa and Sen. Ron Johnson, R- Wisconsin, both who requested the declassification.

“Having reviewed the matter, and having consulted the heads of the relevant Intelligence Community elements, I have declassified the enclosed footnotes.” Grenell consulted with DOJ Attorney General William Barr on the declassification of the documents.

Grassley and Johnson released a statement late Wednesday stating “as we can see from these now-declassified footnotes in the IG’s report, Russian intelligence was aware of the dossier before the FBI even began its investigation and the FBI had reports in hand that their central piece of evidence was most likely tainted with Russian disinformation.”

“Thanks to Attorney General Barr’s and Acting Director Grenell’s declassification of the footnotes, we know the FBI’s justification to target an American Citizen was riddled with significant flaws,” the Senator stated. “Inspector General Michael Horowitz and his team did what neither the FBI nor Special Counsel Mueller cared to do: examine and investigate corruption at the FBI, the sources of the Steele dossier, how it was disseminated, and reporting that it contained Russian disinformation.”

The Footnotes 

A U.S. Official familiar with the investigation into the FBI told this reporter that the footnotes “clearly show that the FBI team was or should have had been aware that the Russian Intelligence Services was trying to influence Steele’s reporting in the summer of 2016, and that there were some preferences for Hillary; and that this RIS [Russian Intelligence Services] sourced information being fed to Steele was designed to hurt Trump.”

The official noted these new revelations also “undermines the ICA on Russian Interference and the intent to help Trump. It undermines the FISA warrants and there should not have been a Mueller investigation.”

Russian’s Appeared To Have Preferred Clinton

The footnotes also reveal a startling fact that go against Brennan’s assessment that Russia was vying for Trump, when in fact, the Russians appeared to be hopeful of a Clinton presidency.

“The FBI received information in June, 2017 which revealed that, among other things, there were personal and business ties between the sub-source and Steele’s Primary Sub-source, contacts between the sub-source and an individual in the Russian Presidential Administration in June/July 2016 [redacted] and the sub source voicing strong support for candidate Clinton in the 2016 U.S. election. The Supervisory Intel Analyst told us that the FBI did not have a Section 702 vicarage on any other Steele sub-source.”

Steele’s Lies

The complete four pages of the partially redacted footnotes paint a clear picture of the alleged malfeasance committed by former FBI Director James Comey, former DNI James Clapper and former CIA Director John Brennan, who were all aware of the concerns regarding the information supplied by former British spy Christopher Steele in the dossier. Steele, who was hired by the private embattled research firm Fusion GPS, was paid for his work through the Hillary Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee. The FBI also paid for Steele’s work before ending its confidential source relationship with him but then used Obama DOJ Official Bruce Ohr as a go between to continue obtaining information from the former spy.

In footnote 205, for instance, payment documents show that Steele lied about not being a Confidential Human Source.

“During his time as an FBI CHS, Steele received a total of $95,000 from the FBI,” the footnote states. “We reviewed the FBI paperwork for those payments, each of which required Steele’s Signed acknowledgement. On each document, of which there were eight, was the caption ‘CHS payment’ and ‘CHS Payment Name.’ A signature page was missing for one of the payments.”

Footnote 350

In footnote 350, Horowitz describes the questionable Russian disinformation and the FBI’s reliance on the information to target the Trump campaign as an attempt to build a narrative that campaign officials colluded with Russia. Further, the timeline reveals that Comey, Brennan and Clapper were aware of the disinformation by Russian intelligence when they briefed then President-elect Trump in January, 2017 on the Steele dossier.

“[redacted] In addition to the information in Steele’s Delta file documenting Steele’s frequent contacts with representatives for multiple Russian oligarchs, we identified reporting the Crossfire Hurricane team received from [redacted] indicating the potential for Russian disinformation influencing Steele’ election reporting,” stated the partially declassified footnote 350. “A January 12, 2017 report relayed information from [redacted] outlining an inaccuracy in a limited subset of Steele’s reporting about the activities of Michael Cohen. The [redacted] stated that it did not have high confidence in this subset of Steele’s reporting and assessed that the referenced subset was part of a Russian disinformation campaign to denigrate U.S. foreign relations.

A second report from the same [redacted] five days later stated that a person named in the limited subset of Steele’s reporting had denied representations in the reporting and the [redacted] assessed that the person’s denials were truthful. A USIC report dated February 27, 2017, contained information about an individual with reported connections to Trump and Russia who claimed that the public reporting about the details of Trump’s sexual activities in Moscow during a trip in 2013 were false, and that they were the product of RIS (Russian Intelligence Services) ‘infiltrate[ing] a source into the network’ of a  [redacted] who compiled a dossier of that individual on Trump’s activities. The [redacted] noted that it had no information indicating that the individual had special access to RIS activities or information,” according to the partially declassified footnote.

Looming Questions

Another concern regarding Steele’s unusual activity is found in footnote 210, which states “as we discuss in Chapter Six, members of the Crossfire Hurricane Team were unaware of Steele’s connections to Russian Oligarch 1.”

The question remains that “Steele’s unusual activity with 10 oligarch’s led the FBI to seek a validation review in 2015 but one was not started until 2017,” said the U.S. Official to this reporter. “Why not? Was Crossfire Hurricane aware of these concerns? Was the court made aware of these concerns? Didn’t the numerous notes about sub sources and sources having links or close ties to Russian intelligence…so why didn’t this set off alarm bells?”

More alarming, it’s clear, Supervisory Intelligence Agent Jonathan Moffa says in June 17, that he was not aware of reports that Russian Intelligence Services was aware of Steele’s election reporting and influence efforts.

“However, he should have been given the reporting by UCIS” which the U.S. Official says, goes back to summer 2016.

Footnote 342 makes it clear that “in late January, 2017, a member of the Crossfire Hurricane team received information [redacted] that RIS [Russian Intelligence Services] may have targeted Orbis.”

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Historically dreadful economic data blew up the expiry manipulation scheme on Wednesday.

March US Retail Sales collapsed 8.7% m/m, the largest decline on record; -8.0% was consensus.  The subcomponents are better than expected: Retail Sales Ex-Autos -4.5% (-5.0% exp.); Ex-Autos & Gas -3.1% (-5.2% exp.).  Analysts missed the manic buying and hoarding of supplies, food and other items.

BBG’s @SteveMatthews12: Retail sales plunged in March, led by a 50.5% plunge at clothing stores and a 26.8% decline at furniture and home furnishing stores, while restaurants and bars were down 26.5%.  https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/u-s-retail-sales-plunged-by-record-8-7-in-march-amid-pandemic

The April Empire (NY) Manufacturing survey depressed to an unfathomable -78; -35 was expected.

US March Industrial Production declined 5.4% m/m; -4.0% was expected.  This is the biggest decline in output since February 1946.  Manufacturing Production plunged 6.3% m/m; -4.1% was expected.

The NAHB Housing Market Index crashed to 30 for April from 72.  This is the biggest decline in the 30-year history of the metric.  55 was expected.

WTI oil tumbled to 19.20 on an International Energy Association report of a record plunge in oil demand and a record 19m barrel increase in crude inventories per the US Energy Information Administration.  An 11.7m barrel build was expected.

Gold declined and gold shares plunged because the dollar roared on Wednesday.  Despite the Fed’s monstrous asset monetization, gold is being hindered by the world-wide dollar shortage.  Most of the world’s debt is dollar denominated.  When you issue debt in dollars, you are short the dollar.  Most international trade and contracts are conducted in dollars.  When your projected international trade flows collapse, the dollars that you expected don’t arrive.  Ergo, global companies that have hedged their expected dollar flows from trade and commerce become short of dollars.  Total World Trade for 2018 is estimated to have been about $42 trillion.  2019 should be higher.  There’s trillions in dollar shorts.

@business: [Covid-19] Antibody tests will start in New York this week, with the state running 2,000 tests per day, Gov. Cuomo says. These will identify people who have already been infected and have recovered.

Cuomo said he will sign an executive order requiring all people in public in NY to wear a mask or face covering when social distancing is not possible.

It appears that DJT’s halt on WHO funding baited Pelosi, Dems & Gates into supporting WHO/its funding and bashing Trump.  The president reportedly knows that US intel shows WHO aided & abetted China’s Covid-19 cover up.  The intel was leaked to Fox News last night.

Democrat Senator Chris Murphy on CNN: “The reason that we’re in the crisis that we are today is not because of anything that China did.  It’s not because of anything the WHO did.  It’s because of what this president did…” https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1250430997306331143?s=09

Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said earlier Tuesday that while the WHO and China “made mistakes,” Trump is also looking to deflect blame from his own administration… [This is NOT an Onion parody piece!]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/politics/donald-trump-world-health-organization-funding-coronavirus/index.html

GOP Rep @DanCrenshawTX: When your hatred for Trump makes you defend a communist governmentthat deliberately hid a virus they knew was spreading around the world.  This is a Senator. From the United States. It’s unbelievable.

Democrats warn Trump that pulling WHO money would run afoul of the same laws that got him impeached – “This decision is dangerous, illegal and will be swiftly challenged,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement Wednesday… [You can’t make this up!]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-democrats-warn-trump-on-world-health-organization-funding.html

@BillGates: Halting funding for the World Health Organization during a world health crisis is as dangerous as it sounds. Their work is slowing the spread of COVID-19 and if that work is stopped no other organization can replace them. The world needs @WHO now more than ever

Sources believe coronavirus originated in Wuhan lab as part of China’s efforts to compete with US

The wet market was an effort by China to deflect blame from the laboratory… China “100 percent” suppressed data and changed data… Samples were destroyed, contaminated areas scrubbed…

    The World Health Organization (WHO) was complicit from the beginning in helping China cover its tracks…    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources

China didn’t warn public of likely pandemic for 6 key days

In the six days after top Chinese officials secretly determined they likely were facing a pandemic from a new coronavirus, the city of Wuhan at the epicenter of the disease hosted a mass banquet for tens of thousands of people; millions began traveling through for Lunar New Year celebrations.  President Xi Jinping warned the public on the seventh day, Jan. 20. But by that time, more than 3,000 people had been infected during almost a week of public silence, according to internal documents obtained by The Associated Press and expert estimates based on retrospective infection data…

https://apnews.com/68a9e1b91de4ffc166acd6012d82c2f9

The Daily Mail: No human-to-human transmission, no travel bans, but plenty of praise for China: What the WHO said about coronavirus as the pandemic unfolded

    January 9 – The WHO praises China for identifying the new virus ‘in a short space of time’ and repeats its assessment that the virus ‘does not transmit readily between people’It also advises against travel or trade restrictions on China…

    January 14 – The WHO tweets saying there is ‘no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission…

    Jan 29 – Dr Tedros gives a speech praising China’s efforts to contain the virus

    Jan 31 – Donald Trump announces travel restrictions on people coming from China…

    Feb 26 – Trump announces a dedicated coronavirus response team, which Mike Pence will lead…

    Mar 11 – The WHO declares coronavirus a pandemic…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8221607/What-said-coronavirus-pandemic-unfolded.html

Updated WHO recommendations for international traffic in relation to COVID-19 outbreak

29 February 2020 – WHO continues to advise against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks

https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak

Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Pres. Trump’s decision to halt WHO funding: “This is another case, as I have said, of the President’s ineffective response, that ‘a weak person, a poor leader, takes no responsibility. A weak person blames others.’” [‘Accuse others of what you are doing.’] https://abcn.ws/3acVjuW

Psychology TodayWhat Is Projection? Projection is the process of displacing one’s feelings onto a different person, animal, or object. The term is most commonly used to describe defensive projection—attributing one’s own unacceptable urges to another…   https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/projection

To his credit, Bill Gates has given tens of billions of dollars to charities.  With Bill inveighing against DJT for defunding WHO, it’s appropriate to examine Gates’ relationships with WHO and vaccines.

In 2018, per WHO web site, it received from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation: $228,970,196… Only the US ($281,063,159) was a larger contributor.   https://www.keionline.org/30744

Between 2009 and 2015, the BMGF gave $1,535.1B to the World Health Organization.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation

Robert F Kennedy Jr. Exposes Bill Gates’ Vaccine Dictatorship Plan – cites Gates’ twisted ‘Messiah Complex’- – “Vaccines, for Bill Gates, are a strategic philanthropy that feed his many vaccine-related businesses (including Microsoft’s ambition to control a global vac ID enterprise) and give him dictatorial control over global health policy—the spear tip of corporate neo-imperialism..

   Promising to eradicate Polio with $1.2 billion, Gates took control of India ‘s National Advisory Board and mandated 50 polio vaccines… to every child before age 5. Indian doctors blame the Gates campaign for a devastating vaccine-strain polio epidemic that paralyzed 496,000 children between 2000 and 2017. In 2017, the Indian Government… evicted Gates and his cronies from the NAB. Polio paralysis rates dropped precipitously. In 2017, the World Health Organization reluctantly admitted that the global polio explosion is predominantly vaccine strain, meaning it is coming from Gates’ Vaccine ProgramThe most frightening epidemics in Congo, the Philippines, and Afghanistan are all linked to Gates’ vaccines. By 2018, ¾ of global polio cases were from Gates’ vaccine… Gates appears gleeful that the Covid-19 crisis will give him the opportunity to force his third-world vaccine programs on American children.  https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/04/robert-f-kennedy-jr-exposes-bill-gates-vaccine-dictatorship-plan-cites-gates-twisted-messiah-complex/

Controversial vaccine studies: Why is Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation under fire from critics in India – BMGF and GAVI [Global Vaccine Alliance] are pushing the [vaccine] agenda with governments around the world, including India,” says Ritu Priya Mehrotra, professor of Social Medicine and Community Health… https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/controversial-vaccine-studies-why-is-bill-melinda-gates-foundation-under-fire-from-critics-in-india/articleshow/41280050.cms

Bill Gates’ Parents: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know

  1. Bill Gates’ Mom, Mary Maxwell Gates, Helped Her Son Secure a Contract with IBM…

Gates built a relationship with John Opel, the CEO of IBM, who also served on the United Way board. Opel mentioned Gates to some of his fellow IBM executives, according to some accounts, and the company decided to “take a chance” with Microsoft. IBM hired Microsoft to build an operating system for its first personal computer. At the time, Microsoft was a small software company …

https://heavy.com/news/2019/09/bill-gates-parents-mary-maxwell-sr/

Microsoft bought MS-DOS on July 27, 1981

On July 27, 1981, Gates fully licensed the “quick and dirty operating system” (QDOS) from a company called Seattle Computer Systems, according to The Register. That OS would later become known as MS-DOS. Not that long before this historical purchase, IBM came a ‘knockin’ at Microsoft’s door, in search of a 16-bit OS to run on its early PCs. Microsoft apparently thought it wiser to buy an existing solution than to build its own, so at first it non-exclusively licensed what was then called 86-DOS, or QDOS, from Seattle Computer Systems. Shortly thereafter, on July 27, Microsoft dropped another $50,000 for the exclusive rights… https://www.windowscentral.com/microsoft-bought-ms-dos-os-early-ibm-pcs-july-27-1981

How Bill Gates Used Information to Become the Richest Man in the World

In 1980, IBM was building its first personal computer, the PC. Trying to keep costs down, IBM decided to outsource the operating system and contacted Microsoft. Microsoft didn’t have an operating system, but Bill Gates knew of a company that did. Seattle Computers had a system named QDOS but had no idea IBM was looking for an operating system. Gates used this information to his advantage and purchased QDOS at a fairly cheap price…. [Thanks to mom’s IBM connection?]

https://medium.com/thrive-global/how-bill-gates-used-information-to-become-the-richest-man-in-the-world-12b66dce68fd

The hype over Gates being a ‘genius’ is grossly misguided according to the above stories.

FISA Bombshell: Russian Intelligence Knew Christopher Steele Was Investigating Trump during 2016 Campaign – Two Russian intelligence operatives were aware as early as July 2016 that former British spy Christopher Steele was investigating Donald Trump, according to newly declassified information in footnotes from a Justice Department report on FBI surveillance of the Trump campaign.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/15/steele-dossier-russian-disinformation-trump/

@ABC: Today marks one year since Notre Dame Cathedral was ravaged by flames, destroying the Paris landmark’s 800-year-old wooden roof and causing irreparable damage to the inside of the church.

One year after the ND conflagration and still no official report on the cause.  This induces us to assume the powers-that-be don’t want the cause of the fire announced.  Given that church burning has been a problem in France, one can reasonable assume the cause was arson.  Who would do such a thing?

The Harvard Crimson @thecrimson: Harvard University will receive nearly $9 million in aid from the federal government through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, the Department of Education announced last week.

The gall of Harvard to crow that they are bagging $9m in Covid relief funds when they have a $40.9B endowment (as of 12/31/2019)!!!

Things which matter most must never be at the mercy of things which matter least.” — Goethe

Well that is all for today

I will see you FRIDAY night.

 

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